This paper develops a theory of the precautionary demand for commodity stocks. It suggests that commodity stocks are held for precautionary purposes by producers, consumers, and intermediate processors...
This paper reviews movements in raw materials consumption over the past 30 years. Included in this review are all base metals and steel, and important agricultural raw materials. These primary commodities...
The markets for base metals have changed remarkably in the last few years. A long period of extremely low prices was followed by a sustained price boom in 1987-89 - which continued into 1990 for copper...
The main purpose of this paper is to take a new look at the commodity market (CM) price forecasts in light of recent investigations. The CM forecasts are similar in nature to the survey expectations in...
The International Commodity Markets Division (CM) of the World Bank started forecasting primary commodity prices more than two decades ago. The forecast accuracy, or forecast biases and informational efficiency...
For 15 years the metals market has been characterized by slow growth - in some cases, even decline - in consumption. To test the proposition that structural changes in demand were the main cause of the...
This paper uses an econometric simulation model of world energy markets to project the competitive supply, demand, and prices for thermal coal as a part of overall energy balance projections. Under the...
This paper presents an analysis of the world energy and petroleum markets, carried out by means of an econometric simulation model. The model accepts a certain pricing path for OPEC crude oil together...
The response of energy demand to drastically higher energy prices and increasing income is a major source of uncertainty clouding global energy prospects. The response can be expressed in terms of price...
Demand equations to project the demand for primary energy in non-OPEC developing countries are presented. The equations are based on energy demand functions estimated from historical data of 35 sample...