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The Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade in the Philippines (Inglés)

The Philippines was among the most infected countries in East Asia at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study analyzes how international trade on various margins was affected by the country’s own lockdown policies and those of trading partners. Using a monthly series of product-by-country data for the period from January 2019 to December 2020 and an event study design, the paper shows that domestic lockdown measures did not affect international trade but external lockdowns affected both ex- ports and imports. The introduction of lockdown measures by trading partners affected imports more than exports, leading to 7 and 56 percent monthly average drops in export and import values, respectively. Restrictions on internal movements and international travel controls in partner countries were responsible for the drop in exports. The slump in imports was because of workplace closure, stay-at-home requirements, restrictions on internal movement, and international travel controls by trading partners of the Philip- pines. Intermediate goods were the key driver of the drop in imports following foreign lockdowns, reflecting supply disruptions in backward global value chain participation. At the same time, exports of intermediate goods were more resilient to the lockdown policies. Finally, both exports and imports were more affected at the extensive margin than the intensive margin, as lockdown measures hindered interactions among people, in turn reducing the potential of businesses to create new relationships and launch new products in foreign markets. Overall, diversified and geographically dispersed suppliers can help countries adjust better to future disruptions.


  • Autor

    Arenas,Guillermo Carlos, Majune,Socrates Kraido, Montfaucon,Angella Faith Lapukeni

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  • Tipo de documento

    Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas

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  • País


  • Región

    Asia oriental y el Pacífico,

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  • Nom. del doc.

    The Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade in the Philippines

  • Palabras clave

    trade and investment; trading partner; computable general equilibrium model; changes in commodity prices; International Trade; global value chain; import value; export value; demand for import; share of import; export of goods; propensity score matching; Research Support; mode of transportation; gross domestic product; mobility of people; country of destination; interactions among people; value of imports; value of exports; changes in trade; survival rate; export trade; internal movement; international travel; Public Transport; transport equipment; export quantity; trade relationship; survival probability; survival time; partner country; intermediate product; trade partner; total trade; aggregate trade; descriptive statistic; imported inputs; infected people; import increase; high frequency; trade datum; supply chain; sea cargo; market exit; empirical evidence; import growth; foreign demand; gravity model; survival period; demand-side shocks; forward linkages; imported intermediate; backward linkages; maximum lag; little attention; passenger plane; negative growth; processed food; open access; containment policy; petroleum product; import share; monthly data; logistic regression; development policy; regression model; Trade Policies; study design; geographic barrier; high share; international arrivals; intermediate imports; product category; average score; robustness check; trade imbalance; trade balance; import data; manufacturing sector; domestic measures; intermediate commodity; new product; modest increase; Exchange Rates; composite index; data rate; foreign market; empirical result; increased export; natural logarithm; domestic demand; potential output; output gap; import contract; export product; local supply; survival analysis; trade growth; summary statistic; aggregate demand; treatment group; product level; merchandise trade; advanced economy; global economy; negative shock; Trade Policy; supply shock; production system; source country; domestic input; maximum period; upper right; domestic production; supply-side shocks



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