This paper addresses the role of market remoteness in explaining maize price volatility in Burkina Faso. A model of price formation is introduced to demonstrate formally that transport costs between urban and rural markets exacerbate maize price volatility.
... Vea más + Empirical support is provided to the proposition by exploring an unusually rich data set of monthly maize price series across 28 markets over 2004-13. The methodology relies on an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to investigate the statistical effect of road quality and distance from urban consumption centers on maize price volatility. The analysis finds that maize price volatility is greatest in remote markets. The results also show that maize-surplus markets and markets bordering Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo have experienced more volatile prices than maize-deficit and non-bordering markets. The findings suggest that enhancing road infrastructure would strengthen the links between rural markets and major consumption centers, thereby also stabilizing maize prices.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7202 FEB 25, 2015
Millions of coffee farmers and coffee trading enterprises lack sufficient credit. This is partly due to myriad challenges and considerable costs that formal lending institutions face serving rural, often isolated markets.
... Vea más + A better understanding of coffee sector risks is needed to respond with strategies, training, and tools that can help farmers and enterprises, mitigate their exposure to risk, and strengthen their resilience against inevitable shocks. This report explores the role that producer associations, governments, non-profit organizations, the private sector, and other intermediaries can play in making risk management and financing tools more accessible and more workable for smallholder coffee growers. It examines the global coffee sector and outlines: (1) major risks and constraints facing the sector; (2) potential opportunities for improving the management of certain risks; and (3) programs launched in various regions aimed at improving access to finance. Through the use of detailed case studies taken from a number of coffee-producing countries, this report seeks to demonstrate: how risks can arise that adversely impact on the coffee sector and those working within the sector; how risks can be better managed so that the sector is able to improve its resilience; how financing constraints can be overcome through a variety of innovative approaches; and how there are potential opportunities to both improve risk and access to finance in a coordinated manner. This report highlights the need for collaboration among all stakeholders within the coffee sector, both nationally and globally. The final two cases demonstrate a virtuous circle of improved risk management that generates improved access to finance, which itself facilitates further improvements in risk management. To this end, this report considers the global coffee supply chain and the actors operating within it, and demonstrates, through the use of selected case studies, how collaborative efforts by actors and stakeholders can improve risk management and access to finance. It shows how risks can be mitigated and or transferred between supply chain actors, and how coping can be facilitated through cooperative arrangements for when risks arise.
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Documento de trabajo 93923 FEB 02, 2015
Parizat,Roy; Van Hilten,Hein Jan; Tressler,Erin Genevieve; Wheeler, Michael; Nsibirwa,Robert Waggwa; Morahan,Rebecca; Modelo Ruiz,Josep Manel; De Smet,Jan; Pineda Pinto,David Fernando
In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially.
... Vea más + Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focused on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. Several assumptions are also made about future oil prices taking into account several variables. All projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.
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The Global Leasing Toolkit (the Toolkit) has three objectives: To provide a practical guide for managers of leasing entities, especially bank-affiliated lessors, with an emphasis on leasing entities offering lease products to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
... Vea más + To provide a practical guide to financial institutions, businesses such as equipment suppliers and vehicle dealers, and other entities considering entering into or engaging in the business of leasing equipment to SMEs. To provide an efficient means for IFCs SME Advisory Services, as well as IFC leasing projects globally, to engage with the management of leasing entities and other stakeholders including those considering entering into leasing or investing in leasing entities. The Toolkit is designed to be a working manual. Making extensive use of case studies, it has been written and devised by leasing professionals with extensive experience in founding and operating leasing entities, both non-bank and bank affiliated. The information in this Toolkit is the result of years of practical experience of leasing professionals both inside and outside of IFC.
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IBRD offers various financial products to meet the financing and risk management needs of development programs. Semi-annually, IBRD provides an update of the lending rates and spreads applicable to its financing products as set out in the terms of each product.
... Vea más + The purpose of this paper is to summarize the lending rates and spreads applicable to IBRD loans outstanding as of January 1, 2015.
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In the third quarter of 2014 (Q3), the Philippine economy expanded by 5.3 percent its slowest pace in 11 quarters. Growth slowed down due to the contraction of government spending on the demand side and agricultural production on the supply side.
... Vea más + The services sector the main engine of growth also slowed to its lowest level in 12 quarters. For Q3 2014 and for the first 3 quarters of 2014, Philippine growth is about average when compared to the major economies in the East Asia region. Capital outflows resulted in a full-year balance of payments deficit of about USD 3.4 billion, the first in a decade. However, the current account remains in strong surplus, supported by robust remittances, while international reserves continue to be at comfortable levels at more than 10 months of imports. Inflation started to moderate, with positive impact on both households and businesses while government spending contracted significantly in Q3 and constituted a further drag on growth. Sustaining government spending in the near-term will require significant improvements in budget planning and execution as the current 28-year old system, already at capacity, is hard pressed to support higher spending. Going forward, the Philippines needs to accelerate reforms that can translate higher growth into more inclusive growth the type that creates more and better jobs so that poverty can be reduced massively and prosperity shared by more people. Overall, the country has an investment gap (both physical and human capital) of around 6.8 percent of GDP as of 2014. The document outlines this investment gap.
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This paper analyzes Zambian export patterns using a new transaction-level trade data set for the period 1999-2011. The data show that, in international comparison, Zambian exports are exceptionally concentrated (on mining products).
... Vea más + This reliance has been increasing in recent years. Zambia's exports are also characterized by a high level of churning of firms and products. Multivariate models of survival probabilities suggest that exchange rate volatility and difficult access to imported inputs significantly inhibit diversified and stable exports. The econometric analysis is complemented with a qualitative study of the Zambian export sector. The analysis concludes that one of the main policy levers for unleashing Zambia's full potential as an exporter is by facilitating access to imported inputs. Additional measures that ease foreign exchange transactions, simplify export and certification requirements, and increase the predictability of Zambia's trade regime could be effective to promote Zambia's nontraditional exports.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7151 JAN 01, 2015
This paper assesses the impact of the rise of China on the trade of Latin American and Caribbean economies. The study proposes an index to measure the impact on trade, which suggests sizable effects, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, and Paraguay.
... Vea más + The paper uses the index and a model of labor mobility, to calculate the impact of China's growth on labor markets in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. The resulting evidence suggests that the rise of China has had positive effects on agriculture and mining in Argentina and Brazil, which offset negative impacts on manufacturing industries, thus leaving total employment and real wages virtually unchanged in the long run. In contrast, the estimated impacts of China's rise on Mexico imply that the sizable shock to manufacturing was not offset by the positive shocks on mining and agriculture, reducing employment in the long run. The paper also discusses the effect of China on the degree of informality in these three economies and contrasts short-run and long-run effects on employment and wages across industries.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7155 JAN 01, 2015
This paper builds a tractable partial equilibrium model to help explain the role of trade preferences given to developing countries, as well as the efficacy of various subsidy policies.
... Vea más + The model allows for firm level heterogeneity in demand and productivity and lets the mass of firms that enter be endogenous. Trade preferences given by one country have positive spillovers on exports to others in this model. Preferences given by the European Union to Bangladesh in an industry raise profits, resulting in entry, and some of these firms also export to the United States. The parameters of the model are estimated using cross sectional customs data on Bangladeshi exports of apparel to the United States and European Union. Counterfactual experiments regarding the effects of reducing costs, both fixed and marginal, or of trade preferences offered by an importing country are performed. The counterfactuals show that reducing fixed costs at various levels has very different effects and suggest that such reductions are more effective in promoting exports when applied at later stages when firms are more committed to production. A subsidy of 1.5 million dollars to industry entry costs raises exports by only 0.4 dollars for every dollar spent, but when applied to fixed costs of production, it raises exports by $25 per dollar spent.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7156 JAN 01, 2015
Cherkashin, Ivan; Demidova, Svetlana; Kee, Hiau Looi; Krishna, Kala
This paper analyzes the determinants of export flow survival in Georgia. The paper uses a unique Georgian firm-level data set, in which firms' characteristics and output dynamics are matched with their customs' export transactions, for the period 2006-12.
... Vea más + A discrete survival model is used to explore the role of firm level characteristics, diversification strategies, and network effects on the survival rates of export flows. Low survival rates at the product level are found to limit the ability of Georgian firms to consolidate new products in international markets. The analysis finds that it is production efficiency, rather than size, that boosts export survival chances, that firms diversification strategies matter for the prospects of survival, and that there is strong evidence of network effects in export survival. The analysis also finds that ratified foreign trade agreements contribute to increase the survival of export flows by reducing policy-induced trading costs and increasing information about destination markets.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7161 JAN 01, 2015
In recent years, many emerging market countries have developed or are in the process of developing SME Exchanges to provide financing to SMEs, but few have succeeded.
... Vea más + This paper aims to help stock exchanges and policy makers think through the key questions to be addressed to determine if, when, how and for whom to develop an SME Exchange in emerging market countries. It takes stock of some of the actions that exchanges can take to reduce issuance costs, in time and money for SMEs, without compromising the prudential needs of investors. The paper draws on the experience of seven SME Exchanges and the World Federation of Exchanges that participated in a workshop organized and led by the WBG to discuss these and other questions. It does not recommend a specific model to follow and does not address specific context issues, however the analysis suggests approaches that are widespread and/or could be beneficial to consider such as (1) focus on SMEs with a sizeable growth rate, (2) have the SME exchange legally related to the main board, (3) do not reduce disclosure content to reduce costs, (4) allow private placements, (5) have well regulated advisors to vet issuers and provide comfort to investors about the quality of the issue, (6) have outreach, public awareness campaign and training for SMEs, (7) consider tax incentives for investors. The report is the first in a series on this topic, and subsequent reports will address and expand on related and broader issues.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7160 JAN 01, 2015
This quarterly publication includes a detailed market analysis of most primary commodities with a focus on oil prices. Broad-based commodity price declines occurred in the second half of 2014.
... Vea más + Crude oil prices declined the most, down 55 percent to $47 per bbl (barrel) in early January, from a high of $115 per bbl in late-June 2014, bringing an end to a four-year period of high and stable prices. The oil price drop is the third-largest seven-month decline of the past three decades - only the 67 percent drop from November 1985 to March 1986 and the 75 percent drop from July to December 2008 were larger. Agricultural, metal, and precious metal prices weakened as well, down by 6, 8, and 9 percent, respectively, in 2014 fourth quarter (Q4) from the previous quarter. Ample supplies, disappointing global growth prospects, and an appreciating Unites States (U.S.) dollar have all weighed on prices. In oil markets, a sequence of (upward) supply and (downward) demand revisions, along with organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC's) abandoning of supply management, have played a pivotal role in the price collapse.
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This paper investigates the link between competitive, well-functioning food markets and consumer welfare. The paper explores two key food markets in Kenya -- sugar and maize -- and argues that a variety of factors conspire to distort market prices upward.
... Vea más + Distortionary factors include import tariff policy, nontariff barriers, potential anticompetitive conduct by firms, and direct state intervention in markets. Changes in sugar and maize prices are shown to have significant welfare effects on consumers. Equivalent income effects are estimated using the most recent available representative household survey data -- the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2005/06. The paper shows that relaxing trade barriers to allow sugar prices to fall by 20 percent could reduce poverty by 1.5 percent. Similarly, adjusting government interventions in the maize market, which have been shown to inflate maize prices by 20 percent on average, could reduce poverty by 1.8 percent. The magnitude of the estimated income effects may vary based on updated household-level consumption data, assumptions regarding demand elasticities, and estimates of import parity prices for these staples. However, in all the scenarios, more competitive prices have a larger average effect on the poorest households in urban and rural areas, supporting the relevance of effective competition policies for poverty reduction strategies.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7179 JAN 01, 2015
Broad-based commodity price declines occurred in the second half of 2014. Crude oil prices declined the most, down 55 percent to $47/ bbl (barrel) in early January, from a high of $115/bbl in late-June 2014, bringing an end to a four-year period of high and stable prices.
... Vea más + The oil price drop is the third-largest seven-month decline of the past three decadesonly the 67 percent drop from November 1985 to March 1986 and the 75 percent drop from July to December 2008 were larger. Agricultural, metal, and precious metal prices weakened as well, down by 6, 8, and 9 percent, respectively, in 2014Q4 from the previous quarter (Figures 1 and 2). Ample supplies, disappointing global growth prospects, and an appreciating U.S. dollar have all weighed on prices. In oil markets, a sequence of (upward) supply and (downward) demand revisions, along with OPECs abandoning of supply management, have played a pivotal role in the price collapse.
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Macroeconomic conditions remained generally stable at end-2014. The growth rate is estimated at 3 percent, driven by extractive industry and services sector.
... Vea más + Inflation is contained at 6 percent on a year-on-year basis, although the country gradually returns to market prices of petroleum products. The tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio remains low (10.1 percent). Current expenditures continue to absorb a significant share of total spending (75 percent). Capital expenditures have been oriented towards the social sectors (education and health), agriculture, and public works. Public resources have been supported by the return of external financing. Initial estimates indicate a reduction in the deficit of the balance of payments. Credits to the economy increased by 18.8 percent. The national development plan should provide more visibility about the future intentions of the government. The price of crude on the international market sharply fell in 2014. This has accelerated the adjustment of the pump prices to the market price. This decrease in prices allows net-importing countries of petroleum products such as Madagascar, among others, to expand fiscal space, reduce import bills and lower inflation. The country should seize this opportunity to initiate reforms of energy subsidies.
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Azerbaijans development at the beginning of the XXI century is characterized by the great success story of its petroleum industry, which has propelled Azerbaijan to the level of the most rapidly growing economies in Europe and Central Asia.
... Vea más + While oil and gas reserves are finite and their extraction and transportation is largely impacted by exogenous factors the Government of Azerbaijan has recently focused its policies on economic diversification, which, among others, prioritizes public investment spending to boost the information and communication technologies (ICT) sector. It is envisaged that by 2020 Azerbaijans ICT sector should become one of the main contributors to the non-oil GDP and should facilitate countrys transition into the knowledge economy. Telecommunications liberalization, modernization and extension of the national telecom infrastructure, implementation of e-government, and other sector-specific policies have helped stimulate the growth of the local ICT sector which since 2005 has been expanding at an average rate of 25-30 percent. The telecom industry, especially its mobile segment, has fueled the overall ICT sector development. The number of Internet users has soared from only 17 percent in 2008 to 73 percent in 2013. By 2014, the wireless penetration per capita grew at over 100 percent, around one third of the population gained mobile broadband access, and 30 percent of Azerbaijans households subscribed to fixed (wired) broadband Internet.
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Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and Caribbean.
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Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia.
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