In the third quarter of 2014 (Q3), the Philippine economy expanded by 5.3 percent its slowest pace in 11 quarters. Growth slowed down due to the contraction of government spending on the demand side and agricultural production on the supply side.
... Vea más + The services sector the main engine of growth also slowed to its lowest level in 12 quarters. For Q3 2014 and for the first 3 quarters of 2014, Philippine growth is about average when compared to the major economies in the East Asia region. Capital outflows resulted in a full-year balance of payments deficit of about USD 3.4 billion, the first in a decade. However, the current account remains in strong surplus, supported by robust remittances, while international reserves continue to be at comfortable levels at more than 10 months of imports. Inflation started to moderate, with positive impact on both households and businesses while government spending contracted significantly in Q3 and constituted a further drag on growth. Sustaining government spending in the near-term will require significant improvements in budget planning and execution as the current 28-year old system, already at capacity, is hard pressed to support higher spending. Going forward, the Philippines needs to accelerate reforms that can translate higher growth into more inclusive growth the type that creates more and better jobs so that poverty can be reduced massively and prosperity shared by more people. Overall, the country has an investment gap (both physical and human capital) of around 6.8 percent of GDP as of 2014. The document outlines this investment gap.
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This paper analyzes Zambian export patterns using a new transaction-level trade data set for the period 1999-2011. The data show that, in international comparison, Zambian exports are exceptionally concentrated (on mining products).
... Vea más + This reliance has been increasing in recent years. Zambia's exports are also characterized by a high level of churning of firms and products. Multivariate models of survival probabilities suggest that exchange rate volatility and difficult access to imported inputs significantly inhibit diversified and stable exports. The econometric analysis is complemented with a qualitative study of the Zambian export sector. The analysis concludes that one of the main policy levers for unleashing Zambia's full potential as an exporter is by facilitating access to imported inputs. Additional measures that ease foreign exchange transactions, simplify export and certification requirements, and increase the predictability of Zambia's trade regime could be effective to promote Zambia's nontraditional exports.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7151 JAN 01, 2015
This paper assesses the impact of the rise of China on the trade of Latin American and Caribbean economies. The study proposes an index to measure the impact on trade, which suggests sizable effects, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, and Paraguay.
... Vea más + The paper uses the index and a model of labor mobility, to calculate the impact of China's growth on labor markets in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. The resulting evidence suggests that the rise of China has had positive effects on agriculture and mining in Argentina and Brazil, which offset negative impacts on manufacturing industries, thus leaving total employment and real wages virtually unchanged in the long run. In contrast, the estimated impacts of China's rise on Mexico imply that the sizable shock to manufacturing was not offset by the positive shocks on mining and agriculture, reducing employment in the long run. The paper also discusses the effect of China on the degree of informality in these three economies and contrasts short-run and long-run effects on employment and wages across industries.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7155 JAN 01, 2015
This paper builds a tractable partial equilibrium model to help explain the role of trade preferences given to developing countries, as well as the efficacy of various subsidy policies.
... Vea más + The model allows for firm level heterogeneity in demand and productivity and lets the mass of firms that enter be endogenous. Trade preferences given by one country have positive spillovers on exports to others in this model. Preferences given by the European Union to Bangladesh in an industry raise profits, resulting in entry, and some of these firms also export to the United States. The parameters of the model are estimated using cross sectional customs data on Bangladeshi exports of apparel to the United States and European Union. Counterfactual experiments regarding the effects of reducing costs, both fixed and marginal, or of trade preferences offered by an importing country are performed. The counterfactuals show that reducing fixed costs at various levels has very different effects and suggest that such reductions are more effective in promoting exports when applied at later stages when firms are more committed to production. A subsidy of 1.5 million dollars to industry entry costs raises exports by only 0.4 dollars for every dollar spent, but when applied to fixed costs of production, it raises exports by $25 per dollar spent.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7156 JAN 01, 2015
Cherkashin, Ivan; Demidova, Svetlana; Kee, Hiau Looi; Krishna, Kala
This paper analyzes the determinants of export flow survival in Georgia. The paper uses a unique Georgian firm-level data set, in which firms' characteristics and output dynamics are matched with their customs' export transactions, for the period 2006-12.
... Vea más + A discrete survival model is used to explore the role of firm level characteristics, diversification strategies, and network effects on the survival rates of export flows. Low survival rates at the product level are found to limit the ability of Georgian firms to consolidate new products in international markets. The analysis finds that it is production efficiency, rather than size, that boosts export survival chances, that firms diversification strategies matter for the prospects of survival, and that there is strong evidence of network effects in export survival. The analysis also finds that ratified foreign trade agreements contribute to increase the survival of export flows by reducing policy-induced trading costs and increasing information about destination markets.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7161 JAN 01, 2015
In recent years, many emerging market countries have developed or are in the process of developing SME Exchanges to provide financing to SMEs, but few have succeeded.
... Vea más + This paper aims to help stock exchanges and policy makers think through the key questions to be addressed to determine if, when, how and for whom to develop an SME Exchange in emerging market countries. It takes stock of some of the actions that exchanges can take to reduce issuance costs, in time and money for SMEs, without compromising the prudential needs of investors. The paper draws on the experience of seven SME Exchanges and the World Federation of Exchanges that participated in a workshop organized and led by the WBG to discuss these and other questions. It does not recommend a specific model to follow and does not address specific context issues, however the analysis suggests approaches that are widespread and/or could be beneficial to consider such as (1) focus on SMEs with a sizeable growth rate, (2) have the SME exchange legally related to the main board, (3) do not reduce disclosure content to reduce costs, (4) allow private placements, (5) have well regulated advisors to vet issuers and provide comfort to investors about the quality of the issue, (6) have outreach, public awareness campaign and training for SMEs, (7) consider tax incentives for investors. The report is the first in a series on this topic, and subsequent reports will address and expand on related and broader issues.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7160 JAN 01, 2015
This quarterly publication includes a detailed market analysis of most primary commodities with a focus on oil prices. Broad-based commodity price declines occurred in the second half of 2014.
... Vea más + Crude oil prices declined the most, down 55 percent to $47 per bbl (barrel) in early January, from a high of $115 per bbl in late-June 2014, bringing an end to a four-year period of high and stable prices. The oil price drop is the third-largest seven-month decline of the past three decades - only the 67 percent drop from November 1985 to March 1986 and the 75 percent drop from July to December 2008 were larger. Agricultural, metal, and precious metal prices weakened as well, down by 6, 8, and 9 percent, respectively, in 2014 fourth quarter (Q4) from the previous quarter. Ample supplies, disappointing global growth prospects, and an appreciating Unites States (U.S.) dollar have all weighed on prices. In oil markets, a sequence of (upward) supply and (downward) demand revisions, along with organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC's) abandoning of supply management, have played a pivotal role in the price collapse.
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This paper investigates the link between competitive, well-functioning food markets and consumer welfare. The paper explores two key food markets in Kenya -- sugar and maize -- and argues that a variety of factors conspire to distort market prices upward.
... Vea más + Distortionary factors include import tariff policy, nontariff barriers, potential anticompetitive conduct by firms, and direct state intervention in markets. Changes in sugar and maize prices are shown to have significant welfare effects on consumers. Equivalent income effects are estimated using the most recent available representative household survey data -- the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2005/06. The paper shows that relaxing trade barriers to allow sugar prices to fall by 20 percent could reduce poverty by 1.5 percent. Similarly, adjusting government interventions in the maize market, which have been shown to inflate maize prices by 20 percent on average, could reduce poverty by 1.8 percent. The magnitude of the estimated income effects may vary based on updated household-level consumption data, assumptions regarding demand elasticities, and estimates of import parity prices for these staples. However, in all the scenarios, more competitive prices have a larger average effect on the poorest households in urban and rural areas, supporting the relevance of effective competition policies for poverty reduction strategies.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7179 JAN 01, 2015
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and Caribbean.
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Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia.
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e of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia.
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Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Latin America and Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
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While economic growth in developing countries over the last ten years has lifted more people out of poverty than in any previous time, more than one billion people still live in countries affected by violent conflict.
... Vea más + Conflict weakens governance, undermines economic development and threatens both national and regional stability. Trade shocks, in particular, can have widely varying impacts on conflict. This report sets out to empirically test these linkages between trade shocks and conflict via cross-country and intra-country analysis. On the basis of the analysis, it offers trade-related policy directions to reduce this risk in fragile economies. The results provide convincing evidence that trade and trade policy have a large impact on the risk and intensity of conflict. This report is composed of three main chapters. Chapter 1 develops a conceptual framework mapping the different channels through which trade may affect conflict and political stability. The framework is based on simple economic theory and the available empirical evidence on the impact of trade related changes on conflict and stability. It then tests this framework empirically through the analysis of cross-country data and through case studies of Nigeria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The hope is that these types of intra-country analyses could be replicated in other countries, since they use data that are available in different countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Chapter 2 uses the same conceptual framework to show how differences in underlying conditions affect the relationship between trade-related changes and conflict. Following a review of the literature on the drivers of conflict, it examines the importance of four groups of grievances: conditions in neighboring countries, factors increasing grievance, government institutions, and policies that affect the transmission of changes in international prices to the domestic market. These relationships are tested using cross-country data and case studies of Nigeria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Finally, chapter 3 uses the existing evidence, as well as evidence generated in this report, to discuss how the policies governing trade can reduce the probability and intensity of conflicts. Two appendixes include detailed information on the modeling framework, the data issues and the estimation results.
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Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets and high income economies.
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The issuance of sukuk, as an instrument in Islamic finance, has been growing in recent years. Many policy makers and businesses are looking at the sukuk markets as sources of long-term financing.
... Vea más + The paper identifies key issues impeding further development of sukuk markets globally, namely, standardization of structures and practices, investor protection concerns relating to insolvency and governance regimes, and market liquidity. The paper also offers approaches in developing domestic sukuk markets and in accessing the international market. The authors suggest that, in developing domestic sukuk markets, policy makers use a framework similar to that of the development of conventional bond markets, that is, by establishing (1) well-functioning money markets, (2) efficient primary markets and securities-offering regimes, (3) a robust and diversified investor base, (4) a market infrastructure that facilitates trading, price transparency, and efficient clearing and settlement of transactions, (5) derivatives market and hedging tools to support risk management by issuers and investors, and (6) a credible legal and regulatory framework. In accessing the international market, the issues policy makers or potential sukuk issuers should consider include awareness of and knowledge of sukuk, legal foundation, taxation, governance, and obligors' credit rating.
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Documento de trabajo sobre investigaciones relativas a políticas WPS7133 DEC 01, 2014
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
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