This book analyzes the risks to Nigeria's development prospects that climate change poses to agriculture, livestock, and water management. These sectors were chosen because they are central to achieving the growth, livelihood, and environmental objectives of Vision 20: 2020; and because they are already vulnerable to current climate variability.
... Vea más + Since other sectors might also be affected, the findings of this research provide lower-bound estimates of overall climate change impacts. Agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of Nigeria's Gross Domestic product (GDP) and employs 70 percent of its people. Because virtually all production is rain-fed, agriculture is highly vulnerable to weather swings. It alerts us that increases in temperature, coupled with changes in precipitation patterns and hydrological regimes, can only exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. The book proposes 10 practical short-term priority actions, as well as complementary longer-term initiatives, that could help to mitigate the threat to vision 20: 2020 that climate change poses. Nigeria's vision can become a reality if the country moves promptly to become more climate-resilient. Climate variability is also undermining Nigeria's efforts to achieve energy security. Though dominated by thermal power, the country's energy mix is complemented by hydropower, which accounts for one-third of grid supply. Because dams are poorly maintained, current variability in rainfall results in power outages that affect both Nigeria's energy security and its growth potential. In particular, climate models converge in projecting that by mid-century water flows will increase for almost half the country, decrease in 10 percent of the country, and be uncertain over one-third of Nigeria's surface. The overall feasibility of Nigeria's hydropower potential is not in question. On grounds of energy diversification and low carbon co-benefits, exploiting the entire 12 gigawatts (GW) of hydropower potential should be considered. Nigeria has a number of actions and policy choices it might consider for building up its ability to achieve climate-resilient development.
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Publicación 78262 JUN 03, 2013
Cervigni, Raffaello; Valentini, Riccardo; Santini, Monia
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has formulated an ambitious strategy, known as Vision 20: 2020, which aims to make Nigeria the worlds 20th largest economy by 2020.
... Vea más + This book argues that there are many ways that Nigeria can achieve the Vision 20: 2020 development objectives for 2020 and beyond, but with up to 32 percent lower carbon emissions. A lower carbon path offers not only the global benefits of reducing contributions to climate change, but also net economic benefits to Nigeria, estimated at about 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The FGN and the World Bank agreed, as part of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) 2010-13, to conduct an analysis of the implications of climate change for Nigeria's development agenda. The current volume focuses on low-carbon development. Building on the work under way on Nigeria's nationally appropriate mitigation actions, the authors evaluate opportunities to pursue national development priorities using technologies and interventions that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), referred to here as low-carbon options. The document is structured as follows: chapter one is introduction; chapter two provides essential background on the country and the economic sectors. Chapter three describes the analytical approach, providing a summary of how the scenarios were developed, methods of analysis, models, and the data and general assumptions used. Chapters four-seven present the analysis and results for each sector: agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and transport, respectively. Each chapter provides an introduction to the sector and the approach, findings, and recommendations for options and actions for low-carbon development. Chapter eight summarizes the key findings across sectors. It describes the main scenarios that were modeled across all sectors and their implications for GHG emissions and the economy. It provides general recommendations on how Nigeria can reconcile national growth objectives with low-carbon development using a cross-sector perspective.
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The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the World Bank have agreed to carry out a Climate Change Assessment (CCA) within the framework of the Bank's Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Nigeria (2010-13).
... Vea más + The CCA includes an analysis of options for low-carbon development in selected sectors, including power, oil and gas, transport, and agriculture. The goal of the low-carbon analysis is to define likely trends in carbon emissions up to 2035, based on government sector development plans, and to identify opportunities for achieving equivalent development objectives with a reduced carbon footprint. This study comprises the following components: (i) development of a reference scenario of greenhouse gas (GHG) net emissions for the agriculture sector, consistent with vision 20: 2020 and other government plans; (ii) identification of opportunities for reduced net emissions- reduced emissions and or enhanced carbon sequestration- while achieving the same development objectives as in the reference scenario; and (iii) economic assessment of low-carbon options in order to help the Nigerian government to prioritize policy options. The study evaluates costs and benefits in a partial equilibrium setting, with no attempt to capture the indirect, general equilibrium effects of adopting low-carbon technologies or management practices. The results of this analysis (the first of its kind in Nigeria) should be considered as a first approximation of the potential for low-carbon development in the Nigerian agriculture sector. The study aims at providing policy makers with an order-of-magnitude estimate of mitigation potential, and an understanding of the value of dedicating further efforts (including through specific projects) at pursuing low-carbon development in agriculture, but is not meant to inform the design of specific, project-level interventions.
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Publicación 78281 JAN 01, 2013
Cervigni, Raffaello [editor]; Rogers, John Allen [editor]; Dvorak, Irina [editor]; Kaenzig, Robin