30169 The I ~World Bank Research A bstracts Program of Current Studies 2002-03~~~~~097 The World Bank Research Program 2002-03 Abstracts of Current Studies I ( 2004 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet wwwworldbank.org Email feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved. 1 234060504 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Contents Introdudtion 1 Studies by Subject Area 5 Abstracts of Current Studies 11 Poverty and Social Development 13 Health and Population 35 Education, Labor, and Employment 41 Environment 49 Infrastructure and Urban Development 61 Agriculture and Rural Development 71 Macroeconomics and Growth 79 International Economics 83 Domestic Finance 111 Industry and Private Sector Development 122 Governance and Public Sector Management 129 Bank Research Output 138 iii Definition of World Bank Research Research at the Bank encompasses analytic work designed to produce results with wide applicability across coun- tries or sectors. Bank research, in contrast to academic research, is directed toward recognized and emerging pol- icy issues and is focused on yielding better policy advice. Although motivated by policy problems, Bank research addresses longer-term concerns rather than the immediate needs of a particular Bank lending operation or of a particular country or sector report. Activities classified as research at the Bank do not, therefore, include the eco- nomic and sector work and policy analysis carried out by Bank staff to support operations in particular countries. Economic and sector work and policy studies take the product of research and adapt it to specific projects or country settings, whereas Bank research contributes to the intellectual foundations of future lending operations and policy advice. Both activities-research and economic and sector work-are critical to the design of successful projects and effective policy. Introduction The World Bank's research program has four basic objec- ence of the publications. Among external clients who read tives: to broaden the understanding of development, to or use the four main categories of publications, 80 assist in developing research capacity in the Bank's percent or more report that the publications influenced member countries, to improve its capacity to advise its their thinking about international development issues a members, and to support all aspects of its own operations. great deal or a fair amount. Whether these aims are achieved depends in part on how Translations are important. Some 64 percent of respon- extensively Bank research is used internally and exter- dents to the client survey are in countries where English nally. In early 2004 the Development Economics is not the principal language. Of these, 54 percent indi- Senior Vice Presidency commissioned two surveys in cate that translation into their country's main language part to assess the use of publications carrying Bank- is important or very important. Since this response comes wide research (annual flagship publications, Policy from a sample sufficiently fluent in English to complete Research Reports, Policy Research Working Papers, and a survey fielded in that language, the demand for trans- the two research journals) by Bank staff and by the lations is likely to be higher among the broader target Bank's clients. audience for Bank publications. For external clients the Internet is an important source of What Surveys Show about the Use information. The staff survey results suggest that the of Bank Research Bank's core constituencies have ready access to the Inter- net. Bank staff in country offices, based on their obser- The first survey resulted in 468 completed questionnaires vations, report that Internet access is generally available from Bank staff in Washington, D.C., and country offices. in the universities, research institutions, private compa- The second brought 1,614 completed questionnaires nies, government offices, and civil society organizations from external clients in more than 140 countries around that were surveyed. The responses to the client survey the world. These clients had access to Bank Web sites, are consistent with these observations. Among clients in had expressed interest in Bank publications, and were developing and transition economies as well as industrial able to complete the questionnaire in English. Their countries, 85 percent or more report that the Internet is access to Bank publications thus was not constrained, important or very important for accessing data and sta- allowing the survey to focus on the use of accessible tistics, working papers, and journal articles. Indeed, 74 publications. At least 100 responses came from each percent or more prefer to access these products online region, with a cross-section of organizations (govern- rather than in print, and 59 percent most frequently ment, academia, private sector) and job functions. The obtain Bank publications by downloading them from survey findings led to four main conclusions. the Bank's Web site. Strikingly, 41 percent of clients in Clients use Bank research publicationsfrequently. Among developing and transition economies report using the external clients, 67 percent report using three or more Bank's Web site at least weekly, and 78 percent or more Bank research publications in the past year, and 91 at least several times a month. percent at least one. Among Bank staff, 80 percent report using three or more, and 96 percent at least one. What Research Is Now Under Way at the Bank? Bank research publications are influential. Bank staff believe that the Bank's publications are influential with This volume reports on research projects initiated, under key client groups, and the more frequent their contacts way, or completed in fiscal 2002 and 2003 (July 1, 2001, with the client groups, the more highly they rate the influ- through June 30, 2003). This edition covers slightly 1 fewer activities than previous ones, but for the first time about such key operational concerns as the sustainabil- it includes summaries of large research programs. These ity of community-driven development programs, the multiyear programs undertake analysis on several issues role of facilitators, and the interaction between com- relating to a broad development topic with the aim of pro- munity organizations and local and central government. viding strategic directions on critical problems facing Studies use a range of methods, from full randomization Bank clients and operations. The Bank's Research Com- with baseline and follow-up surveys to ex post evalua- mittee provides program grants to fund this research tions using mixed methods. while leveraging additional resources, with the expec- Finance. This research was organized around two tation of a major impact on Bank and client policy. Each broad areas: financial sector regulation and taxation, and program is expected to center on a theme giving coher- market structure in banking. It responds to pressing pol- ence to the research and its outputs. With their thematic icy questions on how best to regulate and tax the finan- focus and breadth, the programs are expected to be of cial sector in a changing environment characterized by particular interest for network-based research. privatization, consolidation, and the entry of foreign In fiscal 2002 and 2003 five such programs were under banks. Research projects have included Bank Regulation way, covered in this volume by a single abstract or and Supervision, Taxation of Financial Intermediation, several. Bank Privatization in Developing Countries, Foreign Investment Climate. This program has two key Bank Entry in Developing Countries, and Bank Con- components, data provided by the investment climate centration and Competition. surveys and research based on those data. Surveys and The World Trade Ofganization and Development. This investment climate assessments are carried out in research program focuses on four main themes: collaboration with local counterparts, instrumental in * Development, trade, and international trade building local capacity for systematic collection of firm- agreements-assessing the implications of alternative level data and for policy-relevant research. The program international trade rules for developing countries, explor- has completed 16 investment climate assessments, and ing how international trade agreements can be made to 16 more are under way. promote development, and evaluating the implications Looking Beyond Averages. This program has two main of entering into such agreements. objectives. First, it aims to ensure that the Bank's data * Trade, technology, and foreign direct investment- and tools for poverty analysis and policy advice remain investigating channels of international diffusion of tech- the best available. This work deals with the discrepan- nology, including the role of foreign direct investment and cies between surveys and national accounts as part of a international agreements such as those on intellectual wider effort to improve the cross-country databases property rights. for assessing progress toward the Millennium Develop- * Trade and poverty-investigating how trade and ment Goal for global poverty. Second, the program trade liberalization affect the poor in developing coun- seeks to answer the question, Why are some growth tries, especially in the context of World Trade Organi- processes more effective in reducing poverty than others? zation negotiations. This investigation involves looking beyond averages to * Trade in services and product standards-evaluat- provide a deeper understanding of what role initial con- ing the importance of "behind the border" policy areas ditions (including initial inequalities) play in a country and for international integration and development. what drives the distributional changes seen in survey data. What Information Is Here-and How to Get More Rural Development. This program began by focusing on community-driven development, in response to the The abstracts in this volume describe, for each project, sharply increased donor funding for this and similar the questions addressed, the analytic methods used, the development approaches. The research develops insights findings to date, and their policy implications and use. 2 Introduction Each abstract also identifies the research team and any research and its findings may do so through the Devel- reports or publications produced. To make it easier to opment Economics Senior Vice Presidency's Web site obtain information and data, each abstract gives the (http://econ.worldbank.org). This site provides access email address for the research project's supervisor. The to the Abstracts of CurrentStudies, articles from the Bank's appendix lists reports and publications produced from two research journals-the World Bank Research Observer Bank research and explains how to obtain them. and World Bank Economic Review-and many research This is an annual compendium; readers interested in reports and publications. obtaining more timely information on World Bank Introduttion 3 .... Studies by Sub iec Area I I Poverty and Social Development 13 Access to Finance and Poverty Alleviation 13 Comparative Analysis of Social 1 unds 13 Estimating the Impact of Tradc Libcralization on Poverty: Evidcnce from Mlcxico 14 Evaluation of the Impact of Investments in Early Child Development on Nutrition and Cognitive [)evelopment 14 'T'he Geography of Poverty 15 The Impact of Changes in Prices, 'Iaxcs, Subsidies, and Stipends on Poverty 17 The Impact of Growth on Poverty in Latin America: MNaximum Entropy Estimates and Analysis 17 T lhe Impact of'l'rade and Foreign Direct Investment Rcform on the Poor 18 Initiatives for Improved Data on Povertv and Incqualitv 19 Keeping the Promise of Old Agc Income Security in Latin America and the Caribbean 22 A Nlanual on 'I'ools for Poverty Analysis 23 Microfinance Impact Evaluation 24 A New Analytic Framework for Exvaluating Social Programs 24 Patterns of Inequality 25 Review of Communitv-Based and -Driven Development Programs 26 Safety Nets in an }merging Market Economy 27 Social Status in India and the Response to Economic Opportunities 28 'I'hematic MNapping of Nonincome Povcrty 28 X'Irade Liberalization and Houselhold Impact in Vietnam 29 Urban Poverty and Social Capital 29 Why Are Some Growth Processcs More Pro-Poor 'T'han Others? 30 Youth, Identity, and Cultture in Multiracial Societies 33 Health and Population 35 Child Vulnerability in Peru: Determinants of Nutritional Status, Impact of Social Protection Programs, and Effects of Miacroeconomic Crisis on Child Health 35 Determinants of Success in Immunization Programs 35 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5 Governance of Public Health 36 Health Care Infrastructure and Maternal and Child Health 36 Health Care Providers and Markets in Delhi 37 Health Policy Research in South Asia 38 Institutional Determinants of Effective Delivery of Public Health Services 39 Rural Health Care in China 40 Education, Labor, and Employment 41 Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Early Childhood Nutrition 41 Child Labor and Access to Credit: Evidence from Rural Tanzania and Vietnam 41 Human Capital and Growth in Transition Economies 42 The Impact of Deworming Treatment on Primary School Performance in Busia, Kenya 42 Incidence Analysis of Public Support to the Private Education Sector in Cote d'Ivoire 43 Inequality in Education 44 International Migration and Development 45 Labor Markets and Vulnerability 45 Migration, Poverty, and Income Strategies of Rural Households in Albania 46 Poetry, Literacy, and Empowerment for Rural Yemeni Women 46 Semiparametric Methods for Evaluation of Social Policies and Programs 47 Environment 49 Capital Markets and Environmental Performance: Evidence from the Republic of Korea 49 Climate Change and Rural Poverty 49 Corruption, Pollution, and Foreign Direct Investment 50 Economic Instruments for Habitat Conservation 51 Environmental Indicators 52 Fiscal Incentives for Conservation in Brazil 52 Foreign Direct Investment and Pollution Havens 53 The Functional Value of Biodiversity and Its Correlates 54 Global Overlay-Brazil 54 Landfill Gas Utilization in Sub-Saharan Africa 56 Markets for Environmental Resources 57 Measuring the Economic Value of Environmental Protection Projects: Methodology and Applications to Armenia's Lake Sevan 57 Pesticide UJse in Brazil 58 Pollution from Chemical Use in Agriculture 59 Public Disclosure of Industrial Pollution in China 59 Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions 59 6 Studies by Subject Area Infrastructure and Urban DevelopmeNt 61 Connecting Cities with Macroeconomic Concerns: The Missing Link 61 Economic and Engineering Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for Managing Sedimentation in Storage Reservoirs 61 Emergence from Subsistence: Infrastructure, Location, and Development in Nepal 62 The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure on Travel Demand 64 Information, Knowledge, and Capacity Building for Effective Urban Strategies: Information-Based Instruments for Urban Management 64 Information Technology and Development 65 Infrastructure Logistics and the Costs of Doing Business: Physical, Policy, and Institutional Barriers 65 Million Connections Fund 66 Regulation by Contract for Private Electricity Distribution Companies 67 Regulatory Review of Power Purchase 67 River Basin Management at the Lowest Appropriate Level 68 Rural Roads: Welfare Impact Evaluation 68 Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth 69 Urban Growth Management Initiative 70 Agriculture and Rural Development 71 Access to Land in Latin America and the Caribbean 71 Commodity Marketing Systems 72 Inequality and Investment: Land Tenure and Soil Degradation in the Indus Basin 72 Land Institutions and Land Policy 72 Land Rental Markets in Eastern Europe 74 Macro-Micro Linkages of Irrigation Water Management 74 Mauritania: Technology Fosters Tradition-Preserving the Environment through Grassroots Law Making 75 Nonfarm Rural Development 75 Nonmarket Land Allocation in Vietnam 76 Sending Farmers Back to School: An Econometric Evaluation of the Farmer Field School Extension Approach 77 Weather-Based Index Insurance 78 Macroeconomics and Growth 79 China's Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability: A Computable Equilibrium Model of Overlapping Generations 79 The Impact of Fiscal Arrangements on Private Sector Development in the Russian Federation 79 Studies by Subject Area 7 Investment Patterns and the Quality of Growth 80 Low Returns to Reforms in the Global Economy 81 The Political Economy of Fiscal Decentralization 81 Subnational Capital Markets in Theory and Practice 82 International Economics 83 Accessing International Equity Markets 83 Africa Trade Standards Project 83 Does Regionalism Help or Hinder Multilateralism? 85 The Effects of American Depository Receipt Trading on Local Markets 85 Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, and Growth 86 Geography, Trade, and Growth 88 Intellectual Property Rights and U.S. Multinationals 88 International Technology Diffusion: Impact of Trade and Regional Integration 89 Managing Globalization 90 Preshipment Inspection and Customs Corruption 92 The Regional Impact of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization 92 Regional Integration and Development 93 Regional Trade Patterns 97 Technology Diffusion and Growth in Latin America: Impact of Trade, Education, and Governance 97 Trade and Technical Change 98 Trade and Trade Policy Data System 98 Trade Facilitation and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation 98 Trade Facilitation and Development in East Asia 99 Trade Modeling Project 100 Trade Policy and Development 102 Trade Research Relating to the Doha Development Round 102 Trade, Standards, and Regulatory Reforms 105 Trade, Trademarks, and Reputation 107 Understanding Country and Currency Risk 108 The World Trade Organization and the Russian Federation 109 Domestic Finance 111 Bank Concentration and Competition 111 Bank Privatization in Developing Countries 112 Changes in African Financial Systems during the 1990s 114 8 Studies by Subject Area Credit Fluctuations in Latin America 114 Firm-Level Finance for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises 115 Foreign Bank Entry in Developing Countries 115 Incentives in Banking 116 Pricing of Deposit Insurance 118 Securities Laws and Financial Development: Investor Protection at Acquisition Time across the World 118 Taxation of Financial Intermediation 119 Transaction Costs in Raising Capital 120 Twin Crises and Government Policy 121 Industry and Private Sector Development 122 East Asian Prospects 122 Economic Geography and Political Economy 123 Evaluating Mexico's Small and Medium-Size Enterprise Programs 124 Global Business School Network Capacity and Needs Assessment: Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries 125 Investment Climate Research 126 The Roles of Foreign Contact and Firm Capability in Firms' Dynamic Productivity 128 Governance and Public Sector Management 129 Corporate Governance 129 Corruption 129 Development, Democracy, and State Violence 130 Does Democracy Help the Poor? Comparing Democratic Decentralization and Community-Based Development in India and Indonesia 130 Firm Ownership and Corporate Governance in China 131 The Impact of Institutions on Development 132 The Impact of Local Governance in India: An Empirical Investigation 133 Investment Climate in the Balkans: Regulatory Governance 133 Migration, Decentralization, and Public Goods Provision to the Poor 134 Operational Policy and Software Tool for Institutional Analysis 134 Parliamentary Oversight in Africa 135 Political Economy in the Transition Economies 136 Public Policy toward Nongovernmental Organizations in Developing and Transition Economies 136 Studies by Subject Area 9 Abstracts of Current Studies i Poverty and Social Development Access to Finance and Poverty Alleviation Comparative Analysis of Social Funds This research project assesses the empirical relation- Social funds have become a major source of money for ship between access to finance, financial sector community-supported development projects. Because development, and financial system characteristics (such these projects are demand-driven and rely on communi- as ownership and market structure), on the one hand, ties for implementation and management, thcy are and poverty alleviation and income inequality, on the supposed to represent an improvement over more other. That financial development has a positive effect traditional development projects. But more research is on economic growth is known. But this study, needed on the role of cultural institutions and structures using cross-country regressions, is testing the hypothe- in determining how the processes underlying demand- sis that finance has a positive relationship with poverty driven assistance work and on the relationship of these alleviation and reduced income inequality. A finding of institutions and structures with social and cultural capital. such a relationship would increase the importance of This research examines the relationshilp between reforms fostering the development of the financial social funds and community participation by comparing system. In addition, the research aims to identify a experience in four countries-Jamaica, Nlalawi, specific ownership or market structure or specific Nicaragua, and Zambia-that have very differcnt cultures financial institutions (such as banking, insurance, or as well as internal cultural diversitv. lising qualitative and capital markets) that help reduce poverty and income quantitative survey data and a mix of analytic methods, inequality. the research addresses four questions: Drawing on household survey data for about 40 coun- * How does cultural diversity affcct social capital and tries, a second part of the research will assess the community participation in accessing funds? relationship between the development and structure of * How does the process of participating in applying the financial system and household-level poverty. This for and managing projects affect the cultural underpin- analysis will test the hypothesis that households in coun- nings of participation in collective action? tries with higher financial development have better *Are participatory proccsses exclusionarv on the basis access to financial services and enjoy higher welfare. It of gender, ethnicity, cultural group, or social class? will also attempt to relate specific characteristics of the * Does community participation make social fund- financial system with households' access to financial assisted projects more sustainable than other projects? services, to assess whether a specific ownership or Analysis of data from Jamaica slhows that the social market structure or specific financial institutions fund process is driven by elites and that decisionmaking facilitate this access. tends to be dominated by a small group of motivated The papers, policy notes, and data sets that are people. But by the end of the project there is broad produced by the research project will be made available satisfaction among community members with the on the Web, and papers will be published in academic outcome. The social fund process improves trust and the journals. In addition, the cross-country analysis may pro- capacity for collective action within the community, but vide a basis for more detailed country-level work on these gains are greater for elites. Both participating and finance and poverty. nonparticipating communities are now more likely to Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance make decisions that affect their lives. But participating -Aslh Demirgiuc-Kunt (ademirguckunt@worldbank communities do not show higher levels of community- .org). driven decisions than nonparticipating commtunities. 13 Findings were incorporated into an evaluation of Results show that the trade reforms in the late 1980s social funds by the World Bank's Operations Evaluation and early 1990s increased the welfare of all households, Department, "Social Funds: Assessing Effective- aggregated by income centile. Richer households gained ness"(Washington, D.C., 2002). Widely disseminated, this proportionally more. Households closer to the U.S. bor- report has had an impact on how World Bank-supported der also had larger gains. social funds are managed. Results of the Jamaica analy- The methodology developed in the study was used sis have been presented at academic and policy venues for the poverty chapter of the multiagency Diagnostic including the World Bank, Johns Hopkins University, the T rade Integration Study completed for Ethiopia in 2003. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cornell UIniver- Additional work is looking at the effect of Ethiopia's sity, and the Northeast Universities Development Con- trade reform in the 1990s on poverty, the effect of sortium Conference at Yale University. improvements in Ethiopia's market access on poverty, and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty the antipoverty bias of its trade policy reform. Team-Vijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org); and Oper- Papers have been presented at seminars at the World ations Evaluation Department, Sector and Thematic Bank, the University of Geneva, and the Latin Ameri- Evaluation Division-Soniya Carvalho and Howard can and Caribbean Economic Association meetings in White. With Ana Maria IbaiTez, University of the Ades, Puebla, Mexico. Colombia. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org) and Report Marcelo Olarreaga. With Alessandro Nicita and Isidro Rao, Vijayendra, and Ana Maria Ibafiez. 2003. "The Social Impact Soloaga, tlniversidad de las Americas; and Eugenia of Social Funds in Jamaica: A Mixed-Nlethods Analysis of Baroncelli. Participation, Targeting, and Collective Action in Community- Driven Development." Policy Research Working Paper 2970. Reports World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Nicita, Alessandro. 2003. "Behavioral Responses of Poor and Nonpoor Households: Estimation of Income, Quality, and Price Estimating the Impact of Trade Liberalization Elasticitics for Nlexico." World Bank, Development Research on Poverty: Evidence from Mexico Group, WNashington, D.C. - 2003. "Who Benefited the Mlost from Mlexico's Trade This research is aimed at providing evidence, based on Liberalization in the 1990s?" World Bank, Development microeconomic data, of the impact of large trade reforms Research Group, WVashington, D.C. on poverty in a developing country. The study focuses on Mexico, where large trade reforms took place in the Evaluation of the Impact of Investments late 1980s and early 1990s, poverty was widespread, and in Early Child Development on Nutrition several household surveys of good quality are availablc and Cognitive Development for the period. Using data from the household surveys, the analysis Early child development programs combine nutrition, looks at the effect of trade reforms on household income health care, and cognitive development in an attempt and expenditure. On the income side it focuses on labor to offset the disadvantages of growing up in poverty. income and income from the direct production of goods How effective are such programs? This research, (such as farm goods). On the expenditure side it allows through early coordination with World Bank operations, for second-order effects-the adjustments households evaluates the impact of investments in early child make to their consumption bundle once the changes in development in three projects: the Bolivian Integrated trade policy have affected the relative prices they face Child Development Project, the tlganda Nutrition and the income they earn. and Early Child Development Project, and the Philip- 14 Poverty and Social Development pine Early Childhood Development National Investment Longitudinal Household Survey Data: Some Tests for Three Program. Developing Country Samples." Demographic Research 5: 78-124. All three case studies investigate the effect of early Behrman, Jere, Yingmei Cheng, and Petra Todd. Forthcoming. child stimulation and coaching on the age of school "Evaluating Preschool Programs When Length of Exposure enrollment and on indicators of cognitive development Varies: A Nonparametric Approach." Review of Economics and from the discipline of psychology. They also relate indi- Statistics. cators of early cognitive development to preschool nutri- Kabatereine, N. B., E. Tukahebwa, S. Brooker, Harold Alderman, tion. And all three case studies include randomized trials. and A. Hall. 2001. "The Epidemiology of Intestinal Helminth But the Bolivia case study found that departures from Infections among Schoolchildren in Southern Uganda." East initial research protocols made an evaluation using a African MedicalJournal 78(6): 283-86. matching method preferable. The Bolivia case study finds that greater program expo- The Geography of Poverty sure led to higher cognitive development scores. Extrap- olating these to the expected increase in earnings, the This ongoing program is aimed at producing finely analysis concludes that while the program was expensive, disaggregated spatial profiles of poverty and inequality the expected present value of the gains exceeds the costs. in developing countries-or poverty maps. The program The Uganda case study finds a small but consistent includes both upstream research efforts-to refine effect on nutritional status, weaning and other feeding the methodology underpinning the production of poverty practices, cognitive development, and care giving maps-and downstream research efforts-to use poverty practices. In an analysis of the effects of deworming on maps in investigating questions of great policy child growth, it finds no clear impact, though it does significance. find that using child day care programs to deliver this The methodology centers on using statistical tech- service (as well as inoculations and vitamin A supple- niques to combine multiple data sources so as to take mentation) is effective. advantage of their respective strengths. The initial idea An abstract from the Bolivia case study was trans- was to combine census data with household survey data lated into Spanish and circulated in La Paz, and a work- to produce local-level estimates of poverty and inequal- shop on the Uganda case study results is planned for ity. As experience has grown, the research has been able Kampala in 2004. Results from the Philippine baseline to extend the techniques to other areas, such as estimating have been presented at an annual meeting of the nutritional status at local levels and predicting local Population Association of America in Atlanta and at a impacts of policy changes. meeting of the International Union for the Scientific The program is producing software modules that can Study of Population in Mexico City in November 2003. be applied "off the shelf' for the parts of the poverty map- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- ping procedure that lend themselves to standardization vices-Harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank.org) -critical because of the technical complexity and the and Elizabeth King. With Jere Behrman, Yingmei Cheng, sometimes enormous data sets involved. In addition, it and Petra Todd, University of Pennsylvania; Patrice is producing documentation providing a step-by-step Engle, UNICEF; Donald Bundy, Oxford University; description of the methodology. N. B. Kabatereine, Vector Control Division, Uganda; The program has emphasized disseminating results to Pia Britto, Columbia University; and Arjumand Siddiqi, peers, to ensure broad professional endorsement and Harvard School of Public Health. thus avoid transferring to developing countries a method- ology that is suspect. The program has also devoted Reports resources to training activities to respond to the strong Alderman, Harold, Jere Behrman, Hans-Peter Kohler, John A. interest in developing countries in acquiring the technical Maluccio, and Susan Cotts Watkins. 2001. "Attrition in skills to produce poverty maps. These activities occur on Poverty and Social Development 15 two fronts: the "training of trainers" (generally highly (June 2002), Bishkek (June 2002), Sao Paulo (July 2002), qualified statisticians and econometricians from indus- Mexico City (August 2002), Hyderabad and New Delhi trial and developing countries) and the training of (October 2002), Nairobi (October 2002), Amsterdam technical staff in developing countries. (February 2003), and New York (March 2003), as well as The program has been a useful vehicle for stimulat- at Cornell University (October 2001), Oxford University ing interest in making better use of existing data sources (March 2002), and Williams College (October 2002). At and for strengthening capacity within government the World Bank results have contributed to a Living statistical agencies. In Kenya, for example, poverty Standards Nleasurement Study module in a Development mapping activities strengthened the capacity for Research Group course on poverty measurement. statistical analysis more generally. The joint work with Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty the government (and with donor organizations) spurred Team-Peter Lanjouw (planjouw@a)worldbank.org), Berk interest in additional analytic work, resulting in training Ozler, and Qinghua Zhao. With Johan Mistiaen, for Central Bureau of Statistics staff. University of Maryland; Johannes Hoogeveen and Chris Moreover, the methodology has led to downstream Elbers, Free lTniversity, Amsterdam; Jean 0. Lanjouw, research investigating a range of questions. The Mada- Yale University and Brookings Institution; Phillippe G. gascar poverty map is being used with other data sources Leite, Pontificia Universidade Cat6lica, Rio de Janeiro; to address such issues as the effect of nutrition programs, Yoko Kijima, Michigan State University; Gabriel Demom- the ex ante welfare effects of government programs, and bynes, University of California at Berkeley; and Matthias the links between deforestation, infrastructure, and Schuendeln, Yale University. poverty. The South Africa poverty map was used to investigate the relationship between local inequality Reports and crime. Alderman, Harold, Miriam Babita, Gabriel Demombynes, That the research has had broad impact is shown by Nthabiseng Makhatha, and Berk Ozler. 2003. "How Low Can the fact that some 30 countries have launched poverty You Go? Combining Census and Survey Data for Nlapping mapping activities. This interest shows no sign of Poverty in South Africa." Journal of African Economies 11(2): waning. In fiscal 2002-03 the program provided advice, 169-200. technical guidance, and supervision on poverty maps in Elbers, Chris, Jean 0. Lanjouw, Peter Lanjouv, and Phillippe G. Albania, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Cambodia, China, Ecuador, Leite. 2003. "Poverty and Inequality in Brazil: New Estimates Indonesia, Guatemala, Kazakhstan, Kenya, the Kyrgyz from Combined PPV-PNAD Data." World Bank, Develop- Republic, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Madagascar, Mexico, Morocco, Nicaragua, Panama, Papua Hoogeveen, Johannes. 2003. "Census-Based Welfare Estimates for New Guinea, South Africa, Thailand, Uganda, and Small Populations: Poverty and Disability in TUganda." Zambia. Hoogeveen, Johannes, T. Emwanu, and P. Okiira Okwi. 2003. In fiscal 2002-03 the program also organized two con- "Updating Small Area Welfare Estimates in the Absence of a ferences: the Poverty Mapping Conference in Amster- New Census." dam in October 2002, to disseminate findings to Kijima, Yoko, and Peter Lanjouw. 2003. "Poverty in India during academics, multilateral institutions, and nongovern- the 1990s: A Regional Perspective." Policy Research Working mental organizations; and, with Columbia University's Paper 3141. World Bank, Developmcnt Research Group, Wash- Center for International Earth Science Information Net- ington, D.C. work, the Global Poverty Mapping Conference at Colum- Lanjouw, Peter. 2003. "Estimating Geographically Disaggregated bia University in March 2003. In addition, presentations Welfare Levels and Changes." In Fran,ois Bourguignon and on poverty mapping were made at seminars and confer- Luiz Ilereira da Silva, eds., The Impact of Economic Policies on ences in Helsinki (June 2001), Pretoria (November 2001), Poverty and Income Distribution: Evaluation Techniques and 70o0s. Fortaleza (January 2002), Almaty (June 2002), Beijing New Work: Oxford ULniversity Press. 16 Poverty and Social Development Nlistiaen,JohanA.,BerkOzler,TiarayRazafimanantena,andJean tating their use by a wider group of researchers. In Razafindravonona. 2002. "Putting Welfare on the Map in addition, the tools were used in several training events Nladagascar." Africa Region Working Paper 34. World Bank, for researchers from developing countries, particularly in W7ashington, D.C. Africa. As a result, these researchers are now preparing papers using the tools. The Impact of Changes in Prices, Taxes, Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduc- Subsidies, and Stipends on Poverty tion and Economic Management Front Office-Quentin Wodon (qwodon@worldbank.org). With Jean-Yves Policies affecting the prices of goods-through import tar- Duclos, Laval University, Canada; and Paul Makdissi, iffs, sales and other indirect taxes, price subsidies, and Sherbrooke University, Canada. stipends-have important effects on the poor, and there are many such policies. But the tools that have existed Reports for evaluating the impact on poverty of changes in such Duclos, Jean-Yves, Paul Makdissi, and Quentin Wodon. Forth- policies have limitations. MIost important, the tools do not coming. "Poverty-Reducing Tax Reforms with Hererogenous provide tests for the robustness of the analysis-and Agents." Journal of Public Economic Theory. thus the policy conclusions-to alternative values for . "Poverty-Efficient Program Reforms: The Role of Tar- the poverty measure, the indicator of well-being, and the geting and Allocation Rules." World Bank, Africa Technical poverty line used. Without such tests, analysts risk sug- Families, Washington, D.C. gesting policy changes that may end up being regressive. . "Socially Efficient Tax Reforms." World Bank, Africa This research project aimed to develop and test new ana- Technical Families, Washington, D.C. lytic tools to improve the design of policies relating to Makdissi, Paul, and Quentin Wodon. 2002. "Consumption prices, taxes, subsidies, stipends, and related instruments. Dominance Curves: Testing for the Impact of Indirect Tax The project first developed new graphical and statistical Reforms on Poverty." Economics Letters 75: 227-35. tests of stochastic dominance to allow robust assessments . Forthcoming. "Fuel Poverty and Access to Electricity: of the effect of different types of policies on poverty, Comparing Households When They Differ in Need." Applied inequality, and social welfare. It then extended these tools Economics. to take into account the targeting effects of programs and . "Migration, Poverty, and Housing: Welfare Comparisons policies (who is affected and who is not) and their alloca- Using Sequential Stochastic Dominance." World Bank, Africa tion effects (to what extent households or individuals are Technical Families, Washington, D.C. affected). The tools were also extended to take into account . "Robust Poverty Comparisons and Marginal Policy Reform differences in need between households. Orderings under Income Variability." World Bank, Africa While the project focused on developing new tools, Technical Families, Washington, D.C. it also included applications of the tools to household- level data for several Latin American countries. Research The Impact of Growth on Poverty in Latin America: in NMexico found that programs of cash transfers to farm- Maximum Entropy Estimates and Analysis ers tend to have good targeting performance but a weak allocation mechanism compared with other transfer pro- When helping client countries set targets for poverty grams. And work on indirect taxation in several Latin reduction or assessing progress toward those targets, American countries showed that increasing taxes on World Bank staff confront the difficult problem of some goods while reducing taxes on goods consumed evaluating the elasticity of poverty reduction to growth more by the poor may reduce inequality. and explaining why this elasticity may differ between The tools have been integrated into the DAD countries or between sectors within a country. This (Distributional Analysis-Analyse Distribute) software research applied new econometric methods to analyze the developed at the University of Laval in Canada, facili- relationships between poverty, growth, and inequality in Poverty and Social Development 17 Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole and in Golan, American University; and Shlomo Yitzhaki, selected countries in that region. The aim was to obtain Hebrew University. better estimates of the elasticity of poverty reduction to growth-taking into account the effect of growth on Reports inequality-and to analyze why elasticity differs across Duclos, Jean-Yves, and Quentin Wodon. "What Is Pro-Poor?" countries or sectors. World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Washington, D.C. The research applied generalized maximum entropy Hicks, Norman, and Quentin Wodon. 2002. "Reaching the methods, which facilitate estimations when the number Millennium Development Goals in Latin America: Preliminary of data points is small. Estimations of the elasticity of Results." En Breve 8. World Bank, Latin America and the poverty reduction to growth confirmed that higher ini- Caribbean Region, Washington, D.C. tial inequality has a nonlinear effect on this elasticity, Jayasuriya, Ruwan, and Quentin Wodon. 2003. Efficiency in Reach- while higher initial poverty does not have such an effect. ingtheMillennium Development Goals. World Bank Working Paper The project also extended in several other directions. 9. Washington, D.C. Using stochastic frontier estimation techniques, it inves- . "Changes in Productive Efficiency and Sigma- tigated the relationship between growth, public spend- Convergence." World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Wash- ing, and progress toward Millennium Development ington, D.C. Goals relating to health and education. This work con- Wodon, Quentin, and Shlomo Yitzhaki. "Does Growth Lead to firmed that beyond greater resources, reaching these Deprivation?" World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Wash- goals will require more efficient use of existing resources. ington, D.C. Other work, relying on the Gini index of mobility, exam- . "Growth and Convergence: An Alternative Empirical ined the link between growth, poverty, and inequality, Framework." World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Wash- on the one hand, and mobility and convergence, on the ington, D.C. other. Largely methodological, this work focused on the measurement of convergence and the link between The Impact of Trade and Foreign Direct changes in technical efficiency and convergence. Finally, Investment Reform on the Poor the study developed new and better methods, based on stochastic dominance techniques, for robust tests of Adequately assessing the effect on the poor of reform whether growth is pro-poor. relating to trade and foreign direct investment will require Some of the methods developed by the project are improving the data on key parameters in the models being used in subsequent work, such as a World Bank used. For example, one key data requirement of the study on the Millennium Development Goals. The work analysis is the shares of capital, skilled labor, and unskilled has provided input into the preparation of the World labor used in different productive sectors-information Bank's WorldDevelopmentReport2003:SustainableDevel- that is notoriously inaccurate in the input-output tables. opment in a Dynamic World (New York: Oxford University This project involves econometric work to provide the Press, 2002). The research has also contributed to stud- data improvements needed for analyzing the effect on ies on growth in Central America, the Southern States the poor of trade and foreign direct investment reforms. Development Strategy in Mexico, and public spending This work would make it possible to modify the crucial and the poor in Latin America. Research findings have information on the shares of value added that go to been presented in seminars, mostly in Israel and the unskilled labor in different sectors. It would also allow United States. assessment of why the labor share of income is so much Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduc- higher in household budget surveys than in national tion and Economic Management Front Office-Quentin accounts. Wodon (qwodon@worldbank.org) and Ruwan Jayasuriya. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-David With Jean-Yves Duclos, Laval University, Canada; Amos Tarr (dtarr@worldbank.org). 18 Poverty and Social Development Initiatives for Improved Data on Poverty by welfare levels, a feature unavailable in similar data- and Inequality bases. The welfare measures (consumption and income aggregates) are being constructed for the greatest The World Bank is the leading producer of data on comparability possible, using the harmonized indicators poverty and inequality, ranging from household survey and standard techniques for dealing with missing or data to compilations of summary statistics drawn from incomplete data. The work has been done in close col- these data. This research program is aimed at improving laboration with the World Bank's Africa Region, which the data and methodological tools that the World Bank is creating harmonized files from its household survey uses for monitoring and describing poverty and inequal- data sets. Once completed, the two databases will be ity and for assessing policies designed to reduce poverty- rolled out with the Development Data Group's Data to ensure that these data and tools remain the best Dissemination Project. available. The program has also supported a major revision The research program has several components. One of the World Bank's Global Poverty Monitoring data- is rebuilding from scratch a set of consumption and base, which was made public at the release of the Bank's income distributions and other social sector outcome l1'orld Development Indicators 2004 (Washington, D.C., indicators for developing and transition economies. '1'his 2004). In addition, the program has supported work work will produce greater comparability than ever before on a new Web site (PovcalNet) to enhance external and result in an interactive, user-friendly database that access to the data sets being developed as part of the will greatly enhance the accessibility of the data. A sec- Global Poverty Monitoring task. This will allow users to ond component focuses on measuring poverty using replicate the World Bank's global poverty estimates such data. A third expands the poverty data available by based on the dollar-a-day poverty measure, for example, showing how existing data sources can be linked (see the or to perform their own estimates under alternative abstract in this volume for the Geography of Poverty). And assumptions. another takes advantage of the new data generated by One strand of the work on methodological tools has the first three components as well as new methodolog- focused on how to deal with the discrepancies between ical tools to advance our knowledge of the effects of surveys and national accounts as part of a wider effort to policies and programs on poverty and inequality. improve the cross-country databases for assessing progress A large part of the work in this program is the Com- toward the Millennium Development Goal for global parative Living Standards Project, designed to facilitate poverty. This work has developed a new method for theuseofLivingStandardsN\MeasurementStudy(l \1l1 correcting survey data for selective compliance. The survey data by both "high end" and "low end" users. A method allows rigorous testing of alternative explanations variety of analysts and researchers use the data sets from for the (often worrying) discrepancies between national each LSMS survey, but the utilization can be improved accounts and survey data-discrepancies that can seri- and expanded. The Comparative Living Standards Pro- ously cloud assessments of progress toward the Millen- ject is creating two databases for this purposc. nium Development Goals. The first results suggest that The first is a searchable database of meta data, surveys tend to underestimate inequality, though the designed to help users search across all LSNIS data sets impacts on poverty are small. A pilot application to the to determine which surveys contain information on top- UJnited States shows that a large share of the discrepancy ics of interest. The second contains a subset of indica- between surveys and national accounts in that country tors common to most LSNIS surveys. These indicators can be attributed to selective compliance in survey are being harmonized for comparability across countries designs. Other applications are planned. and years. The database will permit users to create quick, This work has also developed methods for calculat- on-the-fly tables allowing comparisons of key indica- ing purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates using tors. And it will allow key indicators to be broken down unit value data from household surveys. Application of Poverty and Social Development 19 the method to data from India and Indonesia yields terparts and disseminated through World Bank Institute different PPPs than conventional methods. courses. Other work has been exploring what can be learned Results from the work described here and related about people's welfare from qualitative data based on self- analysis (see the abstract in this volume for Why Are Some rated perceptions. One finding is that subjective per- Growth Processes More Pro-Poor Than Others?) have ceptions of economic welfare can differ substantially been widely disseminated. In 2002 results were pre- from standard objective measures. Data for the Russian sented at an African Economic Research Consortium Federation suggest that people give greater weight to such workshop (Nairobi), the Latin American Meeting of the factors as exposure to risk, ill health, and larger family size Econometric Society (Sao Paulo), the annual meeting of than is assumed by standard measures used in the World the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Associa- Bank's poverty profiles. 'I'his work has also explored tion (Madrid), the Northeast Universities Development ways of measuring empowerment using self-perceptions Consortium Conference (Williams College), the annual of power. 'Fhat study has found a high correlation in conference of the Population Association of America data for Russia between perceived power and economic (Atlanta), the annual retreat of the U.K. Department for welfare, both subjectively and objectively assessed. Indi- International Development, the World Institute for vidual empowerment tends to go hand-in-hand with Development Economics Research conference on Spa- greater economic welfare. tial Inequality and Development (London), and the Another important focus has been developing and World Bank Economists' Forum. Results were also pre- applying better tools for evaluating the impact of sented at seminars and conferences at the Asia Devel- antipoverty programs. Studies have combined different opment Forum, Boston University, Columbia University, ex post evaluation methods to assess the poverty impact the Delhi School of Economics, the European Economic of social protection programs, taking into account behav- Association, Georgetown University, the Indian Statis- ioral responses. The methods range from randomization tical Institute, the Institute of Fiscal Studies (London), and baseline surveys before the project starts to the International Association for the Review of Income difference-in-differences and matching methods after and Wealth (Stockholm), the London School of Eco- the program is in place. This work has emphasized devel- nomics, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the oping evaluation methods that can be feasibly applied Rand Institute, University College London, the in typical operational settings. Many lessons have University of Massachusetts, the University of Michigan, emerged. One lesson: neither randomization nor base- Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and line surveys are essential for credible ex post impact Yale University. assessments-but high-quality data are critical. In 2003 results were presented at the Annual World The program's poverty data and monitoring tasks Bank Conference on Development Economics, a con- have been high-profile activities in the international ference on Conversations between Economists and development community. 'I'he results have often had a Anthropologists (Goa, India), a conference on Develop- prominent place in discussions on ensuring that growth ment Anthropology at London University's School of reduces poverty, including in the context of the Millen- Oriental and African Studies, a conference on Global nium Development Goals. Poverty at Columbia University, a National Bureau of The work on impact evaluation, conducted in close Economic Research (NBER) conference on Globaliza- collaboration with World Bank project managers and tion, Poverty, and Inequality (Boston), the NBER Sum- government counterparts, has shown how rigorous mer Institute, the Northeast tJniversities Development impact evaluation can be built into the preparation of Consortium Conference, the annual conference of the operational projects. In some cases the evaluation results Population Association of America (Minneapolis), and the influenced lending operations. The methodology and World Bank's Latin American and Caribbean Growth research findings have been shared with country coun- Conference (Bogota). Results were also presented at 20 Poverty and Social Development seminars and conferences at the American Economic 2911.WorldBank,DevelopmentResearchGroup,\\.bir;,. Association, Columbia University, Cornell UJniversity, D.C. the European Economics Association (Stockholm), Fun- 2003. "Micro-Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequal- da,co Getulio Vargas (Rio de Janeiro), Georgetown Uni- ity." Econometrica 71(1): 355-64. versity, the German Coouncil of Foreign Relations (Berlin), . 2003. "tUsing Imputed Welfare Estimates in Regression Hanoi National Economic University, Harvard tTniver- Analysis." World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- sity, the Institute for Social and Economic Change (Ban- ington, D.C. galore), the International MNonetary Fund, the Latin Elbers, Chris, Peter Lanjouw, Johan Nistiacn, Berk Ozler, and Ken- American and Caribbean Economic Association (Puebla, neth Simler. Forthcoming. "Are Neighbors Equal? Estimating Mexico), Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced Inequality in Three Developing Countries." In Ravi Kanbur International Studies, Mlanchester University, the Mas- and Anthony J. Venables, eds., Spatial Inequalitv and Develop- sachusetts Institute of lechnology, Pontificia Universi- ment. New York: Oxford tUniversity Press. dade Cat6lica (Rio de Janeiro), Siena Summer School, the Ferreira, Francisco H. G., Peter Lanjouw," and Marcelo Neri. 2003. UTnited Nations Development Programme's Human "A Robust Poverty Profile for Brazil UJsing Multiple Data Development Report Office, the University of Maryland, Sources." Revista Brasileira de Economia 57(1): 59-92. the World Institmte for Development Economics Lokshin, Michael, and Nlartin Ravallion. Forthcoming. "Rich and Research, and Y ale UTniversitv. Powerful? Subjective Power and Welfare in Russia." Journal of The latest results from this and related research are Economic Behavior and Otganization. available on the Wecb at http://econ.worldbank.org/ Mlistiaen, Johan. 2003. "Small Area Estimates of Welfare Impacts: programs/poverty/. The Case of Food Price Changes in Madagascar." WVorld Bank, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Team-Martin Ravallion (mravallion@worldbank.org), Nlistiaen, Johan, and NMartin Ravallion. 2003. "Survey Compli- Kathleen Beegle, Shaohua Chen, Calogero Carletto, ance and the Distribution of Income." Policy Research Work- Branko Nlilanovic, Kinnon Scott, Diane Steele, Peter ing Paper 2956. World Bank, Development Research Group. Lanjouw, Berk Ozler, Emanucla Galasso, and Vijayen- Washington, D.C. dra Rao. WNith Angus Deaton, Princeton UTniversitv. Ozler, Berk. 2003. "Can Change Be Good for the Poor, But Bad for Poverty Reduction?" World Bank, Development Research Reports Group, Washington, D.C. Deaton, Angus, and Jed Friedman. 2003. Purchasing Power Rao, \ijaycndra, and Nlichael Woolcock. 2003. "Integrating Qual- Parity Exchange Rates from Household Survey l)ata: India and itative and Quantitative Approaches in Program Evaluation." In Indonesia." World Bank, D)evelopment Research Group, Wash- Fran,ois Bourguignon and Luiz Pereira da Silva, eds., The ington, D).C. Inpact of Economic Poliies on Povertv and Income Distribution: Eval- Demombynes, Gabriel, and Berk Ozler. 2002. "(Crime and Local uation Techniques and Too/s. New York: Oxford tUniversity Press. Ine(lualitv in South Africa." Policy Rescarch Working Paper 2925. Ravallion, NMartin. 2003. "Assessing the Poverty Impact of an WNorld Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Assigned Program." In Fran,ois Bourguignon and Luiz Pereira Demombvncs, Gabriel, (Chris Elbers, Jean 0. Lanjouwx, Peter Lan- da Silva, eds., 7he Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty andIncome jouwv Johan Nlistiaen. and Berk Ozler. Forthcoming. "Produc- D)istribution: Evaluation Techniques and Tools. New York: Oxford ing a Better Geographic Profile of Povcrtv: N lethodology and UTniversity Press. Evidence from 'I'hree Developing C(ountries." In Anthony .2003. "NMeasuring Aggregate Welfare in Developing Coun- Shorrocks and Rolph van dcr Hoeven, eds., Growth, Inequalitv, tries: How Well Do National Accounts and Surveys Agree?" and Poverty: Pcospects for Pro-Poor Economic Development. Oxford: Review of Economics and Statistics 85(3): 645-52. Oxford University Press. . 2003. "On Mleasuring Aggregate Social Efficiency." Pol- Elbers, Chris. Jean 0. Lanjouw, and Peter Lanjouw. 2002. "Mlicro- icy Research WVorking Paper 3166.World Bank, Development Level Estimation of Welfare." l'olicv Research Working Paper Research Group, Washington, D.C. Poverty and Social Development 21 Ravallion, Martin, and Michael Lokshin. 2002. "Self-Rated Eco- and the issues it raises. In preparation for the conference nomic Welfare in Russia." European Economic Review 46(8): a consultative edition of the report has been posted on the 1453-73. Web so that readers can submit comments, at http:// - 2003. "On the Utility Consistency of Poverty Lines." Pol- wblnOO18.worldbank.org/LAC/LAC.nsf/ECADocbyUnid/ icy Research Working Paper 3157. World Bank, Development 146E B BA33 71508E 785 256C B B 005C29B4?Open Research Group, Washington, D.C. document. Ravallion, Martin, Emanuela Galasso, Teodoro Lazo, and Ernesto Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- Philipp. Forthcoming. "What Can Ex-Participants Reveal about ment Network, Office of the Vice President and Head a Program's Impact?" Journal of Human Resources. of Network-Indermit S. Gill (igill@worldbank.org) and Todd Pugatch; and Latin America and the Caribbean Keeping the Promise Region, Social Protection Sector Unit-Truman G. of Old Age Income Security Packard. With Juan Yermo. in Latin America and the Caribbean Reports This study takes stock of structural, "multipillar" reforms Azuara, Oliver. 2003. "The Mexican Defined Contribution System: to social security systems in Latin America, measuring Perspective for Low-Income Workers." World Bank, Poverty the reforms against their promised benefits in several key Reduction and Economic Management Network, Office of areas-fiscal sustainability, labor market efficiency, cap- the Vice President and Head of Network, Washington, ital market development, and reduction in poverty and D.C. inequality. It then considers the implications for policy. Barr, Abigail, and Truman Packard. 2002. "Revealed Preferences TIhe study draws on the recent literature as well as and Self-Insurance: Can We Learn from the Self-Employed in empirical work for commissioned background papers Chile?" World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Man- (including regression analysis, mathematical simulations, agement Network, Office of the Vice President and Head of household surveys, and country case studies). It finds that Network, Washington, D.C. reforms have: . 2003. "Preferences for Pooling or Savings? Time Prefer- * Improved fiscal sustainability, though transition ence, Risk Aversion, and Contribution to Peru's Pension Sys- costs have in some cases been higher than expected. tem." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic * Channeled substantial savings to the financial ManagementNetwork,OfficeoftheVicePresidentandHead sector and helped modernize regulations, though of Network, Washington, D.C. pension funds remain highly exposed to sovereign risk Escobar, Federico. 2003. "Pension Reform in Bolivia: A Review in most countries. of Approach and Experience." World Bank, Poverty Reduction * Improved the equity of social security benefits and Economic Management Network, Office of the Vice Pres- among the covered population, but without extending ident and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. access to a broader segment of society. Fiess, Norbert. 2003. "Pension Reform or Pension Default? A The stagnation of coverage ratios is a significant dis- Note on Pension Reform and Country Risk." World Bank, appointment in the effort to reduce the risk of old age Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, poverty, despite the notable successes of multipillar Office of the Vice President and Head of Network, Washing- reforms in the region. ton, D.C. The findings make a case for deeper reforms, with Gill, Indermit S., Truman Packard, and Juan Yermo. 2003. greater attention to the poverty prevention function of Keeping the Promise of Old Age Income Security in Latin America. social security and a smaller role for mandated savings. Regional Studies Program. World Bank, Latin America and A conference will be held on June 22-23, 2004, in the Caribbean Region, Washington, D.C. Bogotd, Colombia, to discuss with regional policymak- Packard, Truman. 2002. "Are There Positive Incentives from ers and academics the report produced by this study Privatizing Social Security? A Panel Analysis of Pension 22 Poverty and Social Development Reform in Latin America." Journal of Pension Economics and A Manual on Tools for Poverty Analysis Finance 1(2). 2002. "Pooling, Savings, and Prevention: Mitigating the There is much demand among World Bank staff, client Risk of Old Age Poverty in Chile." World Bank, Poverty Reduc- countries, and nongovernmental organizations and other tion and Economic Management Network, Office of the Vice partners for adequate ex ante and ex post evaluation of President and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. poverty reduction and pro-poor growth strategies. That Packard, Truman, Naoko Shinkai, and Ricardo Fuentes. 2002. need is partly met by methods now available, both qual- "The Reach of Social Security in Latin America and the itative and quantitative. But users sometimes lack full Caribbean." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic knowledge of the strengths and limitations of thcse Management Network, Office of the Vice President and Head methods, their applicability to specific policy issues and of Network, Washington, D.C. contexts, and their requirements (for data and human Rofman, Rafael. 2002. "The Pension System and the Crisis in resotirccs, for example). Argentina: Learning the Lessons." World Bank, Poverty Reduc- The need for practical, easy-to-use analytic tools has tion and Economic Management Network, Office of the Vice led to an effort by the World Bank's Development Eco- President and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. nomics Senior Vice Presidency and Poverty Reduction Valdes, Salvador. 2002. "Improving Programs That Mandate and Economic Nlanagement Network-in collaboration Savings for Old Age." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and with such stakeholders as the World Bank's regional vice Economic Management Network, Office of the Vice presidencies, the World Bank Institute, and the Inter- President and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. national Mlonetarv Fund-to produce and assemble a tool 2002. "Justifying Mandated Savings for Old Age." World kit for evaluating economic policies for poverty reduc- Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, tion. The tool kit is designed to: Office of the Vice President and Head of Network, Washing- * Help users evaluate policy choices on the basis of ton, D.C. their impact on income distribution and poverty. 2002. "Social Security Coverage in Chile, 1990-2001." * Help users identify the best method for ex ante and World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management ex post evaluation of the impact of policies on income Network, Office of the Vice President and Head of Network, distribution and poverty. Washington, D.C. * Provide the current best practices for applying the Yermo, Juan. 2002. "Delivering Promises in the Chilean Funded evaluation methods. Pension System." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Eco- * Assess the strengths and limitations of each method, nomic Management Network, Office of the Vice President identify its data requirements, and highlight problems and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. associated with it. 2002. "Funded Pensions, the Financial Sector, and Macro- * Provide a typology of results obtained using each economic Stability: A Balancing Act." World Bank, Poverty method. Reduction and Economic Management Network, Office of * Provide useful references for further research. the Vice President and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. Three workshops on elements of the tool kit wcre held .2002. "The Performance of Funded Pension Systems in in WVashington, D.C., in February and April 2003, and two Latin America." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Eco- more, on micro and macro tools, in May 2004. nomic Management Network, Office of the Vice President Responsibility: Development Economics, Office of the Senior and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. Vice President and Chief Economist-Luiz Pereira da Zviniene, Asta, and Truman Packard. 2002. "A Simulation of Social Silva (Ipereiradasilva@wvorldbank.org) and Fran,ois Bour- Security Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Gained?" guignon; Development Research Group, Poverty Team- World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Peter Lanjouw, Vijayendra Rao, NMartin Ravallion, Kinnon Network, Office of the Vice President and Head of Network, Scott, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Nlichael Woolcock, Washington, D.C. and Public Services-Jakob Svensson, Dominiquc van Poverty and Social Development 23 de Walle, and Ritva Reinikka; Development Prospects program in Brazil. The methodology involves randomly Group-Dominique van der Mensbrugghe; East Asia and assigning clients to treatment and control groups by Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Man- relaxing some eligibility criteria for participating in the agement tTnit-Gaurav Datt and Jehan Arulpragasam; microcredit program. The project will conduct a baseline Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction and Eco- survey followed by another survey 6-12 months later. nomic NManagement 1-Delfin S. Go, Poverty Reduction The study will also assess the program's targeting of and Economic Management 2-Lionel Demery, and poor people. By mapping the baseline survey data to exist- Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Front ing data on microentrepreneurs in Brazil, it can inform Office-Quentin Wodon and Krishnan Ramadas; Human CrediAmigo about how it is doing in reaching poor Development Network-Shantayanan Devarajan; and people. This issue is critical, since CrediAmigo is among Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Net- the most important pillars of the Brazilian government's work, Poverty Reduction Group-Boniface Essama- fight against poverty. Nssah. With Patrick Conway, University of North Carolina The results not only will help CrediAmigo better at Chapel Hill; Jan Dehn, Credit Suisse First Boston; understand its impact and how it can improve its oper- NMoataz El-Said, Hans Lofgren, and Sherman Robinson, ations, but also will address a worldwide knowledge gap International Food Policy Research Institute; Jeffery I. about how microcredit is or is not contributing to poverty Round, University of Warwick; David E. Sahn, Cornell reduction. The experimental approach used in the study University; Issouf Samake; Thomas Walker, Reserve is one that microfinance institutions could easily apply. Bank of Australia; and Stephen D. Younger, Cornell Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, University. Finance Cluster-Susana M. Sanchez (ssanchez@ worldbank.org) and Poverty Sector-Emmanuel Skoufias. Reports With Pedro Olinto, International Food Policy Research Bourguignon, Francois, and Luiz Pereira da Silva, eds. 2003. The Institute; and Dean Karlan, Princeton Ulniversity. Impact of Economic Policies on Povertv and Income Distribution: Eva/aation Thrhniques and Tools. New York: Oxford UIniversity A New Analytic Framework for Evaluating Press. Social Programs - Forthcoming. The Impact of Alacroeconomic Policies on Poverty andln(co,eDistribltion:.lacro-,IficroLinkageMilodels. New York: This research introduced a new analytic framework for Oxford University Press. evaluating social programs and policies. The framework, which builds on the concept of the Gini income elastic- Microfinance Impact Evaluation ity, takes into account not only flexible distributional weights for translating individual welfare gains into NMeasuring the economic impact of microfinance pro- aggregate social gains but also the targeting performance grams and institutions is fraught with methodological dif- of programs and the allocation of benefits among program ficulties, and studies often lead to contradictory results participants. even when using the same data. There is no consensus The research developed the new framework, along supportcd by hard scientific evidence on the best method- with variations on it, and applied the techniques to ology for evaluating this impact. empirical data on social transfer programs, mostly in This study proposes an alternative methodology for Latin America but also elsewhere. In addition, work measuring the effect of delivering credit to microentre- with panel data for some of the empirical applications led preneurs. It is undertaking the first randomized control to a proposed new measure of income mobility in rela- experiment to assess this effect, focusing on CrediAmigo, tion to the Gini index of inequality. This Gini index of a microlending initiative of the Brazilian development mobility makes explicit a simple link between the bank Banco do Nordeste and the largest microfinance concepts of inequality, mobility, and horizontal equity. 24 Poverty and Sociol Development The research found that evaluations of the perfor- Clert, Carinne, and Quenrin Wodon. 2002. "'I'he Targeting of mance of programs can be highly sensitive to the weights Government Programs in Chilc: A Quantitative and Qualita- in the social welfare framework used for the evaluations. tive Assessment." In NVorld Bank, rhiles High Grouth Economy: In addition, it found that the impact of programs can be Poverty and Income Distribution, 1987-1998. World Bank Coun- decomposed in various ways, including to show who trv Study. Washington. D.C. benefits from a program and how the benefits vary among Siaens, Corinne, and Quentin NVodon. 2003. "Food Subsidies and program participants. And the research showed that the Consumption Inequality in Nlexico." StatisticslEstad/&stia. techniques it developed can be applied using grouped Wodon, Quentin. 2001. "Income Nlobility and Risk during the Busi- data, which makes them attractive for cases where ness Cycle." Economics of 7ransition 9(2): 449-61. researchers lack unit-level data from a household survey. Wodon, Quentin, and Shlomo Yitzhaki. 2002. "Evaluating the The tools and related findings were presented in Impact of Government Programs on Social Welfare: 'he Role workshops and conferences in Africa, Asia, and Latin of Targeting and the Allocation Rules among Program Benefi- America. 'T'hese presentations focused on the evaluation ciaries." Public Finance Review 30(2): 102-23. module of the SimSIP (Simulations for Social Indicators . 2002. "Inequality and Social Welfare." In Jeni Kllugman, and Poverty) family of Excel-based tools, which incor- ed., A Sourcebook for Poverty Reduction Strategies. Vol. 1, Core porates some of the tools developed in the research, Techniques and Cross-C'utting Issues. NVashington. I).C.: NVorld facilitating their use by a wider group of researchers. In Bank. addition, some of the methods developed in the research . 2003. "'l'he Effect of I sing Group Data on the Estimation are being used in subsequent work. of the Gini Income Elasticity." EconomiicsLetters 78(2): 153-59. Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduc- . 2003. "Inequality and the Accounting Period." Econom- tion and Economic Management Front Office- ics Bulletin 4(36): 1-8. Quentin Wodon (qwodon@worldbank.org) and Corinne Wodon, Quentin, Benedicre de la Briere, Corinnc Siaens, and Siacns; and Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- Shlomo Yitzhaki. 2003. "The Impact of Public 'I'ransfcrs on ment Network, International Trade Department- Inequalitv and Social NVelfare: Comparing Nlexico's Nlohamed Ihsan Ajwad. With Shlomo Yitzhaki, Hebrew PROGRESA to Other Government Programs." Research on University. EconomicInequality 10: 147-71. Yitzhaki, Shlomo, and Quentin WVodon. Forthcoming. "NIlobility, Reports Inequality, and Horizontal Equity." In Daniel J. Slottje, ed., Ajwad, Nlohamed Ihsan, and Quentin Wodon. 2002. "Who Bene- Research on Economic Inequalit: A Research Annual. Greenwich, fits from Increased Access to Public Services at the Local Conn.: JAI Press. Level? A Marginal Benefit Incidence Analysis for Education and Basic Infrastructure." In Shantayanan Devarajan and E Patterns of Inequality Halsey Rogers, eds., Ilorld Bank Economists' Forum. Vol. 2. Washington, D.C.: NVorld Bank. Whether global inequality has increased or decreased is - Forthcoming. "Access to Public Services in Sri Lanka: a question generating much debate. Complicating the A Mlarginal Benefit Incidence Analysis." Sri Lanka Economic debate, the evidence brought to bear oftcn comes from Journal, sources of doubtful value. One source widely used in the Forthcoming. "NIarginal Benefit Incidence Analysis t lsing literature is the Deininger-Squire database on income dis- a Single Cross-Scction of Data." Applied Economics Letters. tribution, developed at the World Bank in 1996. That Castro-Fernandez, Rodrigo, and Quentin Wodon. 2002. "Protect- database provides a useful point of refercnce. To rcmain ing the UInemployed in Chile: From State Assistance to Indi- relevant, however, it must incorporate information from vidual Insurance?" In World Bank, Chile' High Growth Economy: new household surveys. T his project updated the data- Povertv and Incomne Distribution, 1987-1998. World Bank base through systematic computation of inequality Country Study. WVashington, D.C. indexes based on household surveys. Poverty and Social Development 25 Analysis of the data finds that, contrary to conventional Role of inequality and heterogeneity. Theoretical work has wisdom, it is difficult to identify a distinct trend in shown that economic inequality need not constrain inequality after accounting for the increase in Eastern collective action, but empirical work has shown mixed European countries. At the same time the large differ- results. Many studies find a U-shaped relationship ences in inequality across regions have largely persisted. between inequality and project outcomes. Most Preliminary results were presented at the 2003 annual empirical studies that have attempted to measure social meetings of the American Economic Association. The fractionalization have shown that it tends to inhibit col- database will be made publicly available on the Web. lective action. In the end, the success of community- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- driven projects may also be affected by how well opment-Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@aworldbank.org). heterogeneity is managed. With Lyn Squire, Global Development Network; and Capture. Even in the most egalitarian societies elites Kihoon Lee, tTniversity of Maryland. will almost always dominate a community-driven process of choosing, constructing, and managing a public good. Review of Community-Based and -Driven This may not always represent "capture," in the sense Development Programs that elites appropriate all the benefits. But when local cultures and systems of social organization result in tight In the past decade many governments and development control of community decisions by elites, more malevo- agencies, including the World Bank, have enthusiastically lent forms of capture become likely. The evidence shows, embraced community-driven development programs, for example, that targeting is markedly worse in more substantially increasing funding for such programs. But unequal communities, particularly when power is does the analytic evidence support this optimism? concentrated among elites. 'T'his project assesses the evidence on the effective- Naive concepts. Key concepts underlying the theory of ness of community-driven development initiatives, community-driven development-partiaipation, commu- reviewing and synthesizing more than 200 empirical and nity, social capital-need to be treated critically. A naive theoretical research papers on the topic. Some of the key application of such concepts could lead to poor project findings are as follows. design and outcomes seriously at odds with stated Targeting. Decentralized community-based targeting intentions. of antipoverty programs can be better than centralized Sustainability. Several qualitative studies show that the targeting, but the evidence remains limited. The sustainability of community-driven initiatives depends evidence does not suggest that community-driven crucially on an enabling institutional environment. Line development projects have been well targeted to the ministries need to be responsive to the needs of commu- poor within communities. Nloreover, under certain nities, and national governments committed to the idea conditions local inequality can worsen when targeting is of transparent, accountable, and democratic governance. decentralized. Role of external agents. Qualitative evidence suggests Project performance. 'I'here is some evidence that that the role of external agents, such as project facilita- community-driven projects create effective community tors, is key to the success of community-driven devel- infrastructure and improve welfare outcomes. But such opment efforts. Projects often work with young, evidence is missing for most projects. Moreover, studies inexperienced facilitators whose incentives are not aligned do not establish that it is the participatory elements with the best interests of the community. Knowledge of projects that are responsible for improving their about the effect of incentive systems and heterogeneity outcomes. among street-level agents on the success of projects is Social capital. There is some quantitative evidence limited, however. showing an association between social capital and pro- Evaluations and learning-by-doing. Since the success of ject effectiveness, but the direction of causality is unclear. community-driven development is crucially conditioned 26 Poverty and Social Development by local social and cultural systems, it is best done not The project also examined how well targeted decen- through wholesale application of best practices from tralized programs and expenditures for poverty reduction projects successful in other contexts, but through care- are to poor communes and poor people in Vietnam. It ful learning-by-doing. This requires a long time horizon, assessed whether programs perform a safety net function, good evaluation, and openness to learning from mis- recognizing that this involves both protection from takes. But one of the most worrying findings is that most poverty and promotion from poverty. It examined the role community-driven development projects lack careful of nonincome factors, including whether equally poor evaluations with good treatment and control groups and communes in different provinces are treated equally with baseline and follow-up data. and, if not, what accounts for these differences. And it The findings have been presented at World Bank estimated the counterfactual of what household con- seminars, the 2003 Annual World Bank Conference on sumption would have been without transfers, with the Development Economics in Bangalore, and a seminar at counterfactual allowing for behavioral responses. the International Food Policy Research Institute. Within The findings suggest that Vietnam's transfer pro- the World Bank the findings have fundamentally changed grams helped few people escape poverty and protected the way community-driven development is understood even fewer from falling into poverty. The public safety and led to a concerted effort to improve the evaluation net appears to have been largely irrelevant to the coun- of community-driven development projects. try's recent record of poverty reduction. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty In response to the analysis and recommendations of Team-Vijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org) and this project and others, the government of Vietnam is Ghazala Mansuri. reviewing its flagship poverty program. Research results were incorporated into Vietnam Report Development Report 2000: Attacking Poverty (Hanoi: Mansuri, Ghazala, and Vijayendra Rao. Forthcoming. "Community- Government-Donor-NGO Working Group, 1999). T he Based and -Driven Development: A Critical Review." WVorld results were also presented to a conference of government Bank Research Observer representatives, local nongovernmental organizations, and academics in Hanoi in Mlay 2001. Safety Nets in an Emerging Market Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Economy Services-Dominique van de Walle (dvandewalle@ worldbank.org). This research project assessed the effectiveness of the public safety net in Vietnam. Because of a lack of good Reports data, the study first carried out a broad qualitative assess- van de Walle, Dominique. 1999. "Protecting the Poor in ment, identifying key issues on which more needs to be Vietnam's Emerging Market Economy." l ietnam :So'Joeconomiw learned. It reviewed existing public safety net programs, Development: A Social Science Review 19: 59-80. the main sources of household vulnerability, and what is . 1999. "Safety Nets in an Emerging Market Economy." In known about coping strategies, and outlined an agenda Jennie I. Litvack and Dennis A. Rondinelli, eds., ,Uarket Reform for strengthening the main safety net programs. in Vietnam: Building InstitutionsforDevelopment. Westport, Conn.: Using the newly released 1998 Vietnam Living Stan- Quorum Books. dards Survey-which provided previously unavailable . 2002. "The Static and Dynamic Incidence of Vietnam's data on policy coverage across communes and, in some Public Safety Net." Policy Research Working Paper 2791. cases, households-the study then performed quantita- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. tive analysis to better understand and assess the perfor- - . 2003. "Testing Vietnam's Public Safety Net." Social mance of programs aimed at reducing poverty and Protection Discussion Paper319. World Bank, Human Devel- providing insurance to poor households. opment Network, Social Protection Unit, Washington, D.C. Poverty and Sotiol Development 27 - 2004. "The Static and Dynamic Incidence of Vietnam's mation, low-caste subjects expect their efforts to be Public Safety Net." In Paul Glewwe, Nisha Agrawal, and LDavid poorly rewarded. Mlistrust undermines motivation. Dollar, eds., Economic Growth, Povertv, and Household IWelfare: To the extent that the findings can be generalized to Policy Lessonsfrom tietnam. NVorld Bank Regional and Sectoral economic performance, they suggest that the aggregate Study. Washington, D.C. effect on society of expectations associated with caste can be viewed as unambiguously negative, and that measures Social Status in India and the Response that reduce the perception of bias in the enforcement of to Economic Opportunities economic rights would measurably increase individu- als' efforts to escape poverty. Recent work in economic history provides striking The project has informed World Bank economic and evidence that historical institutions that denied large sector work, analytic and advisory work, and lending segments of the population opportunities for economic programs in South Asia. Results have been widely advancement have long, lingering consequences. The circulated at the World Bank and presented at Cornell reason, scholars have emphasized, is the effect of past UTniversity and several conferences: the NMacArthur institutions on current opportunities. Conference on the Effects of Inequality, Massachusetts This research project proposes and experimentally Institute of Technology (October 3, 2003); the Round- tests an additional explanation based on the ability of table on Providing Services to the Poor, Brookings historically oppressed groups to respond to opportunities. Institution (December 5, 2003); and the Conference on It tests the hypothesis that when an individual's social Behavioral Economics, Public Economics, and Devel- identity (caste) is made public, but not otherwise, indi- opment Economics, London School of Economics (Nlay viduals will respond differently to economic incentives. 28-29, 2004). The research focuses on India, where a national mandate Responsibility: Social Development Department-Karla R. has created new educational and political opportunities Hoff (khoff@worldbank.org); and Development Research for low castes in villages. Group, Public Services-Monica Das Gupta. With Vinod The work is based on eight experimental treatments Jairath, University of Hyderabad; and Priyanka Pandey, using 642 junior high school volunteers from a village in Pennsylvania State Uiniversit\v The WNkorld Bank-Nether- India and a survey of 270 households in an area near the lands Partnership Program and the MacArthur Founda- site of the experiment. To undertake the experiment, the tion Network on the Effects of Inequality have project trained five Indian nationals on the staffs of non- contributed funding for the research. governmental organizations. To undertake the survey, it trained a team of 20 Indian university students. Reports The experiment provides evidence that a history of Hoff. Karla R. 2003. "Historical Paths to Institutional Develop- social and legal disabilities may have persistent effects ment." WorldBank Research Obser,er 18(2): 205-26. through its impact on expectations. Participants are asked Hoff. Karla R., and Privanka Pandey. 2003. "W'hy Are Social to perform a task (solving mazes) in response to various Inequalities So Durable? An Experimcntal Test of the Effects incentives. When participants' caste is not announced, of Indian Caste on Pcrfoirmance." World Bank, Social Devel- there is no caste gap in performance, regardless of the opment Department, Washington, D).C. incentive scheme. When participants' caste is announced, low-caste but not high-caste individuals perform much Thematic Mapping of Nonincome Poverty worse, under a variety of economic incentives, compared with a control group whose caste is not announced. When Based on data from the 2002 Albania Living Standards a nonhuman factor (a random draw) is introduced that in Nleasurement Study (LSNIS) survey, the World Bank's part determines rewards, the caste gap disappears. The 2002 poverty assessment of Albania emphasized the results suggest that when caste identity is public infor- spatial dimension of poverty in the country: remote rural 28 Poverty and Social Development areas in the northeast have considerably higher poverty The research develops a methodology that brings than the rest of the country. The poverty assessment comr- together the richness of household-lcvcl data with broader bined the LSMS survey data with 2001 census data to shifts in economic variables. The approach integrates a produce small area estimates of poverty and inequality. consistent nationwide computablc general equilibrium It also looked at nonincome dimensions of poverty, which model with a linked regional multimarket model and compound the income deprivation, particularly in remote microsimulation of impacts at the household level based rural areas. on individual records from the recently completed Viet- This research project extends that work, creating a nam Household Living Standards Survey. spatial database of nonincome poverty indicators for use This approach allows better identification of the types in a thematic mapping exercise, to be overlaid with the of households likely to be positively (and negatively) poverty and inequality mapping done for the poverty affected by trade developments through a range of chan- assessment. Collecting statistical, administrative, and nels. A major advance in this class of modeling efforts is geographic information system (GIS) data from the feature enabling households to respond to changes secondary sources, the project systematically compiled through occupational choice or mobilitv. geographically referenced data for all available indicators The study applies this methodology to three poor, of nonincome poverty at the levels of prefecture, district, mountainous regions of Vietnam. and municipality or commune. In addition to providing The social accounting matrix for the computable gen- the basis for the thematic mapping, the database will serve eral equilibrium component of the work was prepared in as an input to a spatial econometric analysis of poverty close collaboration with the Central Institute for Eco- to be conducted separately. nomic Management in Hanoi. The work is still under way, but preliminary results Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduc- confirm the highly spatial nature of poverty in Albania, tion and Economic Management Sector Department- bolstering the argument for geographic targeting of Nlartin Rama (mrama@worldbank.org). WVith David resources to the country's more destitute areas. Roland-Horst, University of California at Berkelcy; and The database provides a valuable resource for use by Finn Tarp, University of Copenhagen. local and international researchers in analyzing the spa- tial dimension of poverty and the links between location Urban Poverty and Social Capital and other determinants of welfare. The project has been conducted in close collaboration This project, by examining the role of social networks, with local stakeholders, including the Albanian Statisti- intends to improve the understanding of how the urban cal Institute and line ministries. poor cope with risk and vulnerability in India. Using a Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty multidimensional definition of risk-encompassing Team-Calogero Carletto. With Byron Kotzamanis and health, income, housing, violence, consumption, and Marie Noel Duquenne, University of Thessaly. water and sanitation-the study attempts to extend the understanding of risk and insurance to urban Trade Liberalization and Household areas while modeling both economic and social Impact in Vietnam behaviors. The project combines qualitative and qluantitative This study uses the case of Vietnam to advance research methods. Using a case study approach focusing on slum on the detailed incidence of national and sectoral trade areas in Delhi, it integrates focus group discussions and policies (tariffs and subsidies as related to World Trade other participatory methods with economic thcory and Organization accession agreements and other trade econometric analysis of survey data. arrangements) on particular categories of households in The study finds that the informal governments that particular regions. form in slums play a crucial role as mediators with the Poverty and Social Development 29 state. And social networks in slums play an important role mean growth rate for poor people, which indicates the in determining living standards. The findings have led direction of change in a theoretically defensible measure to a better understanding of how slums are governed and of the level of poverty. of the potential for community involvement in local The research used an application to China's growth projects. process in the 1990s to illustrate the proposed measure. The research has been presented at the World Bank, In 1990-99 the ordinary growth rate of household income Cambridge University, the Institute of Social and per capita was more than 6 percent a year, but the Economic Change (Bangalore), and the Institute of pro-poor growth rate was 4 percent. The growth rate by Economic Growth (Delhi). quantile ranged from 3 percent for the poorest percentile Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty to 10 percent for the richest. The pro-poor growth rate Team-Vijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org) and rose sharply, to about 10 percent a year, for a few years Michael Woolcock. With Arup Mitra, Institute of in the mid-1990s, an increase associated with a policy Economic Growth, Delhi; Lester Coutinho, Delhi change that greatly improved the terms of trade for University; and Saumtira Jha, Stanford University. farmers. The research program has launched a series of coun- Reports try case studies on the determinants of the rate of pro- Jha, Saumtira, Vijayendra Rao, and Michael Woolcock. "Governance poor growth. The first study completed, for India, found in the Gullies: Democratic Responsiveness and Community that the country returned to its historical rate of poverty Leadership in Delhi Slums." World Bank, Development reduction in the 1990s. But there has been no com- Research Group, Washington, D.C. pelling sign of an acceleration in poverty reduction com- Mitra, Arup. 2003. Networks, Occupational Choice, and Poverty: mensurate with the higher rate of economic growth. The An Exegesis on Delhi Slums. Delhi: Manohar. study found that a large share of the gains from growth have bypassed the poor, in no small measure because the Why Are Some Growth Processes growth has not been concentrated in the sectors and More Pro-Poor Than Others? regions that matter most to the poor. A case study of Indonesia showed that while the coun- Why some growth processes are more pro-poor than try experienced rapid poverty reduction in 1984-96, others is a question often asked in World Bank operations there was a dramatic reversal after the 1997 financial and client countries. Answering it requires a deeper crisis. But these aggregate findings mask substantial understanding of the role played by initial conditions diversity in growth and distributional change across (including initial inequalities) and of what drives the regions. A disaggregated analysis reveals that regional dif- distributional changes seen in survey data. This research ferences in poverty persist even after controlling for the addresses this question from different perspectives, effects of provincial income levels, particularly in rural focusing on areas where new research appears to offer high areas. These findings suggest that local factors play an value added and drawing in part on data developed in important part in determining poverty and interact with related work (see the abstract in this volume for Initia- growth to affect poverty reduction in differing ways tives for Improved Data on Poverty and Inequality). across Indonesia. One strand of work has examined the theory and A second strand of work has studied the links between methods of assessing the extent to which economic economywide policy reforms and the distribution of growth is pro-poor-and what exactly that means. The living standards. One study examined the effects of research has found standard methods used in the World globalization on income distribution within rich and poor Bank to be deficient in many respects for monitoring the countries, drawing on country-level databases. This gains to the poor from economic growth. And it has research found strong evidence that at low average proposed a better measure of pro-poor growth-the income levels it is the rich who benefit from openness 30 Poverty and Social Development (measured by the ratio of trade to GDP). But as income Other work has tried to unpack how community- levels rise-to around $5,000-7,000 per capita at inter- driven development-widely touted as a pro-poor growth national prices-the poor and the middle class benefit strategy-really works and how it is driven by social as their incomes increase relative to those of the rich. networks and the quality of facilitation (see the abstract Another study examined the welfare impacts of in this volume for Review of Community-Based and China's accession to the World Trade Organization, com- -Driven Development Programs). These social and bining general equilibrium analysis with unusually rich cultural aspects of poverty analysis require new tech- household survey data to produce highly disaggregated niques mixing quantitative and qualitative methods. estimates. The study found negligible impacts on inequal- Closely related work has investigated the socio- ity and poverty in the aggregate. But diverse effects economic determinants of local-level success in emerge across household types and regions, associated reaching the poor. One study assessed the local account- with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income ability and targeting performance of decentralized sources, with possible implications for compensatory antipoverty programs in Bangladesh. This study- policy responses. among the first to use household data to define, measure, Yet another study developed a rapid response tool to and explain targeting performance in a decentralized analyze the distributional impacts of economic crises setting-shows that in a food-for-education program the and macroeconomic shocks. Because the method uses center appears to be neutral to poverty at the village only precrisis household information, it allows timely level, while most villages achieve pro-poor targeting at the analysis. The study used the method to estimate the com- household level. But the study finds large variations in pensating variation for Indonesian households following program performance at the local level. Using structural the 1997 Asian currency crisis. It found that virtually socioeconomic indicators to explain the heterogeneity, it every household was severely affected, though the urban finds that village isolation and local inequality worsen poor fared the worst. For poor rural households the abil- performance in reaching the poor. ity to produce food mitigated the worst consequences of Work on country case studies has involved setting up the high inflation. The geographic location of households new databases for investigating the determinants of mattered even within urban or rural areas. longer-term poverty reduction at the provincial level. A third strand of work has looked at impacts of econ- In close collaboration with country statistical offices, the omywide change on a range of nonincome dimensions program has been assembling and analyzing large of welfare. One study investigated the effects of severe household-level databases for studies in four countries: macroeconomic crises on population mental health. Using Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia. longitudinal data from Indonesia, it found that the inci- An important channel for impact from the research has dence of psychological distress increases two- to fivefold been the World Bank's economic and sector work and for men and two- to threefold for women. Poor mental lending operations. The tools developed for measuring health persists during economic recovery even as other and understanding pro-poor growth have been used in mcasures of welfare improve. many poverty assessments and poverty-focused country Another strand of research has examined the impor- reports (including those for Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, tant role of cultural and social factors in determining India, Madagascar, and Mozambique). The database devel- inequality and poverty and access to public services by oped for the country study in China will be a key input into the poor. Social exclusion based on caste and gender, the poverty assessment for that country. And early results which is culturally driven, affects not just access to from the work on Brazil contributed to a Latin America and services but also such behaviors as conspicuous the Caribbean Region report on inequality (David de Fer- consumption and domestic violence, which have ranti, Guillermo E. Perry, Francisco Ferreira, and Michael distributional implications and affect investments in Walton, Inequality in Latin America: Breaking with History? human capital. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2004). Poverty and Social Development 31 The work on community-driven development and Besley, Timothy, Rohini Pande, Lupin Rahman, and Vijayendra decentralized service delivery has influenced the World Rao. Forthcoming. "The Politics of Public Good Provision: Bank's thinking in key areas. For example, the work has Evidence from Indian Local Governments." Journal of the shown the importance of impact evaluations for European Economic Association. community-driven development projects and led to Bloch, Francis, and Vijayendra Rao. 2002. "Terror as a Bargaining questions on how best to implement and evaluate such Instrument: A Case Study of Dowry Violence in Rural India." projects. Most important, the research has changed the American Economic Review, 92(4): 1029-43. discourse on community-driven development within the Bloch, Francis, Vijayendra Rao, and Sonalde Desai. Forthcoming. World Bank, sharpening the focus on measurable results "Wedding Celebrations as Conspicuous Consumption: Sig- and on how community-driven development processes naling Social Status in Rural India." Journal of Human Resources. really work. The work on culture has begun to persuade Bourguignon, Fran,ois, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Phillippe G. anthropologists to think more directly about policy issues Leite. 2002. "Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differ- and economists to study the implications of cultural ences in Household Income Distributions across Countries." processes for development. Policy Research Working Paper 2828. World Bank, Research The research has also had an impact within govern- Advisory Staff, Washington, D.C. ments. In Brazil the government used the work on . 2003. "Conditional Cash Transfers. Schooling, and Child designing conditional cash transfers, done jointly with Labor: Micro-Simulating Brazil's Bolsa Escola Program." IVorld local researchers, in integrating four social assistance BankEconomic Review 17(2): 229-54. programs into the unified Bolsa Familia. In China the Bourguignon, Fran,ois, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Marta Menen- National Bureau of Statistics has agreed to adopt the dez. 2003. "Inequality of Outcomes and Inequality of Oppor- methods developed for setting poverty lines, so that for tunities in Brazil." Policy Research Working Paper3174. World the first time there will be complete congruence between Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. the World Bank's poverty assessments for China and the Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion. 2003. "Hidden Impact? government's. Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program." Policy Results from the analyses and from related data work Research Working Paper 3049. World Bank, Development have been widely disseminated (see the abstract in this Research Group, Washington, D.C. volume for Initiatives for Improved Data on Poverty . Forthcoming. "Household Welfare Impacts of WTO and Inequality). The latest results from this work are Accession in China." lWorldBank Economic Review. available on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org/ Datt, Gaurav, and Martin Ravallion. 2002. "Is India's Economic programs/poverty/. Growth Leaving the Poor Behind?" Journal of Economic Per- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty spectives 16(3): 89-108. Team-Martin Ravallion (mravallion@worldbank.org), Do, Quy-roan. Forthcoming. "Institutional Trap." Policy Research Shaohua Chen, Branko Milanovic, Kathleen Beegle, Working Paper. World Bank, Development Research Group, Emanuela Galasso, Peter Lanjouw, Michael Lokshin, Washington, D.C. Berk Ozler, Ghazala Mansuri, Vijayendra Rao, and Do, Quy-Toan, and Lakshmi Iyer. 2003. "Land Rights and Michael Woolcock; and Development Economics, Office Economic Development: Evidence from Vietnam." Policy of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist- Research Working Paper 3182. World Bank, Development Francois Bourguignon. Research Group, Washington, D.C. Ferreira, Francisco H. G., and Phillippe G. Leite. 2003. "Meeting Reports the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil: Can Micro- Adekson, Adedayo, and Michael Woolcock. 2003. "Negotiating economic Simulations Help?" Economia 3(2): 235-79. Globalization: How Political and Social Institutions Shape the . Forthcoming. "Educational Expansion and Income Timing and Management of Economic Integration." World Distribution: A Microsimulation for Ceara." In Anthony Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Shorrocks and Rolph van der Hoeven, eds., Growth, Inequali/y, 32 Poverty and Social Development andPoz'en':ProspectsforPro-PoorEconomicDevelopment. Oxford: cussion Paper 3026. Centre for Economic Policy Research, Oxford tJniversity Press. London. Ferreira, Francisco H. G., Phillippe G. Leite. Luiz Pereira da Milanovic, Branko. 2002. "Can We Discern the Effect of Global- Silva, and Paulo Pichetti. 2003. "Predicting the Results of ization on Income Distribution? Evidence from Household NMacroeconomic Shocks: The Brazilian Crisis of 1998-99." Budget Surveys." Policy Research Working Paper 2876. World World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Friedman, Jed. Forthcoming. "Measuring Poverty Change in Milanovic, Branko, and Lyn Squire. 2003. "Do Pro-Openness Indonesia, 1984-99: How Responsive Is Poverty to Growth?" Policy Reforms Increase Wage Inequality? Some Empirical In Ravi Kanbur and Anthony J. Venables, eds., Spatial Inequal- Evidence." World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- itv and Development. New York: Oxford University Press. ington, D.C. Friedman, Jed, and James Levinsohn. 2002. "The Distributional Rahman, Lupin, and Vijayendra Rao. 2003. "Revisiting Dyson Impact of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: and Moore: The Relative Impact of Culture, Economics, and A'Rapid Response' Nlethodologv." llorldBankEconomicReview Public Action on Women's Agency in North and South India." 16(3): 397-424. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Friedman, Jed, and Duncan Thomas. 2003. "Population Mental Ravallion, Martin. 2003. "The Debate on Globalization, Poverty, Health during Crisis: Evidence from Indonesia." World Bank, and Inequality: Why Measurement Matters." International Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Affairs 79(4): 739-54. Galasso, Emanuela, and Martin Ravallion. 2003. "Social Protection .2003. "Inequality Convergence." Economics I.etters 80: 351-56. in a Crisis: Argentina's Plan Jefes yJefas." Policy Research Work- . Forthcoming. "Externalities in Rural Development: Evi- ing Paper 3165. World Bank, Development Research Group, dence for China." In Ravi Kanbur and Anthony J. Venables, eds., Washington, D.C. Spatial Inequality and Development. New York: Oxford Univer- - Forthcoming. "Decentralized Targeting of an Anti-Poverty sity Press. Program." Journal of Public Economics. . Forthcoming. "Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: Looking Jalan, Jyotsna, and Martin Ravallion. 2003. "Does Piped Water beyond Averages." In Anthony Shorrocks and Rolph van der Reduce Diarrhea for Children in Rural India?" Journal of Econo- Hoeven, eds., Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: Prospects for Pro- metncs 112(1): 153-73. Poor Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press. .2003. "Household Income Dynamics in Rural C'hina." In Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2003. "Measuring Pro-Poor Stefan Dercon, ed., Insurance against Poverty. New York: Oxford Growth." Economics l.etters 78(1): 93-99. University Press. Ravallion, Martin, and Gaurav Datt. 2003. "Why Has Economic Lokshin, Nlichael, and Thomas Mroz. 2003. "Gender and Poverty: Growth Been More Pro-Poor in Some States of India Than Oth- A Life-Cycle Approach to the Analysis of the Differences in ers?" Journal of Development Economics 68(2): 381-400. Gender Outcomes." Policy Research Working Paper 3153. World Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C. Youth, Identity, and Culture Lokshin, Nlichael, and Martin Ravallion. 2002. "Dynamic Poverty in Multiracial Societies Traps? Tests for Nonlinear Household Income Dynamics in 'Fwo Transition Economies." World Bank, Development Research This research examined the roles that culturally based Group, Washington, D.C. organizations, cultural expression, and the affirmation of Lokshin, Nlichael, and Ruslan Yemtsov. 2003. "Evaluating the cultural heritage can play in forging positive self- Impact of Infrastructure Rehabilitation Projects on Household identity among poverty-stricken youth of African descent Welfare in Rural Georgia." Policy Research Working Paper living in multiracial societies. The research investigated: 3155. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, * The role of culture in forming self-perception and D.C. the individual and social roles of youths of African descent. Nlesnard, Alice, and Martin Ravallion. 2002. "Wealth Distribution * The extent to which these youths identify them- and Self-Employment in a Developing Country." CEPR Dis- selves as part of a specific ethnic, racial, or national Poverty and Social Development 33 culture and the extent to which their perceptions influ- included a major initiative with national census bureaus ence their behavior as individuals, students, and citizens. in Latin America on the demography of Afro-descendant * The impact of globalization on the traditional cultural populations and a research program on the disaggrega- identities and culturally specific skills, expressions, tion of Millennium Development Goal indicators by social practices, and enterprises of youths of African race and ethnicity in particular countries. descent. The research findings were disseminated at the World Based on a survey of youth of African descent in an Bank during Environmentally and Socially Sustainable urban neighborhood of South Africa, the study found that Development Week in April 2002. in a panel discussion youth had a greater concern with their national identity on Youth, Empowerment, and Inclusion in Conflict- as citizens of South Africa than as people with an African Affected Societies. cultural heritage. Since the study was conducted in the Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, years immediately following the end of apartheid in the Social Development Family-Shelton H. Davis country, this finding may have to do with a new gener- (sdavis@worldbank.org) and Jeanette Sutherland. With ation of South African youth being more concerned Abebe Zegeye, University of South Africa. about their identity as members of the new South African nation than as members of a specific racial group. Report The research contributed to the organization in the Zegeye, Abebe, Julia Maxted, and Charl Schutte. 2002. "Mamelodi, World Bank of an Afro-descendant and youth program Place of Struggles and Whistles:AWindow intoYouth Culture." in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region's World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Social Social Development Family, a program that has Development Family, Washington, D.C. 34 Poverty and Social Development Health and Population Child Vulnerability in Peru: Determinants ment in the country. Results have been presented at of Nutritional Status, Impact of Social seminars in the World Bank and at a workshop, sponsored Protection Programs, and Effects by the Inter-American Development Bank and held in of Macroeconomic Crisis on Child Health Rio de Janeiro in November 2003, on Evaluating Nutri- tion Programs in Latin America. This research project looked at several issues relating to Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, child malnutrition in Peru. First, using multilevel regres- Health Sector Unit-Michele Gragnolati (mgragnolati@ sion analysis and data from the Peru Demographic and worldbank.org); and Development Research Group, Health Survey of 2000, it investigated the relationship Public Services-Norbert Schady and Harold Alderman. between altitude and child nutritional status. Findings With David Stifel, Lafayette College. show a nonlinear relationship. Opposite forces may oper- ate at higher altitudes, where the adverse effects of Reports hypoxia on growth could be compensated for by other, Marini, Alessandra, and Michele Gragnolari. 2003. "Effects of favorable health conditions. Altitude on Child Growth in Peru: A Multilevel Analysis." Second, the study examined the impact of macro- World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Health economic crisis on child health, primarily infant mortal- Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. ity and malnutrition. Regression analysis using data from Paxson, Christina, and Norbert Schady. 2004. "Child Health and four Demographic and Health Surveys (1986, 1992, 1996, the 1988-92 Economic Crisis in Peru." Policy Research Work- and 2000) showed a large increase in infant mortality (from ing Paper 3260. World Bank, Development Research Group, 50 per 1,000 live births to 75) during the worst years of Washington, D.C. the 1988-92 economic crisis. It also provided evidence Stifel, David, and Harold Alderman. 2003. "TIrhe 'Glass of Milk' of a significant deterioration in anthropometric outcomes Subsidy Program and Malnutrition in Peru." Policy Research associated with the crisis. Working Paper 3089. World Bank, Development Research Third, the study looked at the targeting of the Vaso Group, Washington, D.C. de Leche (glass of milk) program and its impact on nutri- tional status. The study addressed targeting by decom- Determinants of Success in Immunization Programs posing the overall distribution into within- and between- community components. It then used a series of cross- This research will break new ground in exploring why sectional surveys to indicate the relationship between some countries achieve successful immunization pro- spending on the program and the nutritional status of grams and others do not. Through four to six country case young children. Findings confirm that the program is com- studies, the research will identify institutional factors paratively well targeted, with much of the targeting related to successful immunization programs in devel- being done by local committees. But even though most oping countries. Using a cross-country database, it will assistance is going to low-income households, the study then test and confirm hypotheses developed from the case could find no direct benefit in nutrition. That calls into studies. The research will also examine factors relating question the motivation for using an in-kind subsidy of to equity in the outcomes of immunization programs. perishable milk rather than a cash transfer using a sim- The research will identify factors associated with high ilar targeting criterion. immunization coverage for measles and DPT-3 (diph- The research has contributed to a public expenditure theria, pertussis, and tetanus) vaccines and determine review in Peru and will provide input to a poverty assess- which are most strongly related to immunization 35 outcomes. Such factors include national income, public Analysis of survey data from administrators, frontline spending, institutional structures, donor assistance, workers, and elected local representatives in Karnataka political economy issucs, cducation and literacy, and identified a number of key constraints to the effective governance and corruption. management of disease control in India, in misaligned By identifying the factors that contribute most to incentives and the institutional arrangements for success and equity in immunization programs, the service delivery. It concluded that India's public health research will help governments and donors improve the system is configured to be highly effective at top-down structure of vaccine programs and help make the case for reactive work, such as bringing outbreaks of disease financing ncw vaccines. under control, but not for the more routine collaborations Findings will be presented at the World Bank, at aca- required for prevention of disease. demic conferences, and to the Financing Task Force of The project will include dialogue with users of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization. preventive health services in Karnataka to facilitate Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- greater local participation in implementing and moni- vices-Varun Gauri (vgauri@worldbank.org). toring the services-as well as dialogue with high-level policymakers in India. The project findings have been Governance of Public Health disseminated in Karnataka at workshops held by the Institute for Social and Economic Change in Bangalore 'I'he Indian state of Karnataka, currently undertaking gov- and by the Karnataka health department. The findings ernmentwide institutional reform with support from the have also been disseminated through a presentation at World Bank, has a history of supporting civil engagement the World Bank, and the project is informing preparation in governance. For the reform effort in the health of a new World Bank health sector loan to Karnataka. sector the government has created a task force drawn from The research tools are available on the Web at civil society to assess the changes needed. Working with http://www 1. world bank. org/publicsector/bnpp/ task force members and health service users in Preventhealth.htm. Karnataka, this research project aimed to develop tools Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- and information that would help empower citizens and vices-NMonica Das Gupta (mdasgupta@worldbank rural local governments to monitor and participate in .org) and Peyvand Khaleghian. With Sekhar Bonu, the implementation of public health arrangements. To Rakesh Sarwal, and William Reinke, Johns Hopkins this end, the project worked to: University; and P. Padmanabha, K. Murthy, V. Ran- * Support local initiative in developing tools to assess ganath, V. NMuraleedharan, and Deepak Sahai, Center for the quality of delivery of preventive health services. Population and Development Research, Bangalore. * Build on the governance and public sector reform tools developed by the World Bank and the health Report service assessment tools developed by the U.S. Centers Das Gupta, Monica, Peyvand Khaleghian, and Rakesh Sarwal. for Disease Control and Prevention. 2003. "Governance of Communicable Disease Control * Develop a case study of the situation in Karnataka Services: A Case Study and Lessons from India." Policy and its efforts to reform delivery of preventive health Research Working Paper 3100. WVorld Bank, Development services and to engage local communities in the process. Research Group, Washington, D.C. * Develop short case studies of the experience of other Asian countries (such as Nlalaysia, which has Health Care Infrastructure and Maternal successfully reduced the burden of communicable and Child Health diseases in rcccnt years) and extract best practices in such areas as engaging civil society in implementing and This research is investigating the effects of the health care monitoring public health activities. infrastructure on contraceptive use, fertility, and infant 36 Health and PopUlalion mortality in TIttar Pradesh, India, as well as the poten- in seven neighborhoods of Delhi spanning a wide range tially differential effects of government-run facilities of incomes. and private providers on these outcomes. The aim is to The method uses two kinds of survey instruments. provide insights into how. to improve India's health care The first is the use of "vignettes." Hypothetical cases infrastructure. are presented to a provider, with one interviewer acting The project first prepared the data set for the analy- as a patient and another recording the provider's actions sis, a complex task that involved mapping the services and answering questions a patient could not (such as on availablc in facilities in a neighborhood to the women in the results of blood tests). The vignettes are then analyzed the households in that neighborhood, at both the district using item response theory as developed in the educational and the tehsil level. 'I'he data are being analyzed using testing literature to extract a measure of provider quality. four scts of methodologics: In the second technique an interviewer sits with a * Binary logistic regressions for modeling the demand provider for a day recording every patient's complaints for contraceptivcs (sterilization, pills, condoms, and and symptoms, counting all questions asked by the intrauterine devices). provider, timing the encounter, and recording all treat- * Probit analysis for modeling infant mortality. ments. These data can be compared with measures of * Ordered probit models for birthweight (available in competence from vignettes to explore the relationship five categories). between knowledge and practice. * Poisson and Cox regressions for analyzing waiting Analysis of the results has led to three particularly note- time before men and women, especially in rural areas, worthy findings. First, the analysis sheds light on the opt for sterilization. debate in India about the relative quality of the public Preliminary findings suggest that it is essential to and private health sectors. The private sector consists of differentiate between the services of public providers and two distinct groups: untrained providers of low average those of private providers and to investigate endoge- quality and trained medical doctors of considerably nous facility placement in a more complex analytic frame- higher quality. Public providers (all trained) have a work using new estimation methods. bimodal distribution of quality-some very high (mostly Findings will bc disscminated at the NVorld Bank and working in tertiary facilities) and some quite low (in in India-at the WVorld Bank's New Delhi office, at neighborhood clinics). Public providers in poor areas are Banaras Hindu lUniversity in Varanasi, and at SIPSA in only a little better than private providers. Private doctors Lucknow. The data set will be madc available in SPSS in rich areas are only a little better than doctors in (Statistical l'ackage for the Social Sciences) software. public hospitals. Responsibility: South Asia Region, Human [)evelopment Second, there are large problems in quality, with even Sector ITnit-Sadia A. C'howdhury (schowdhury3@ relatively high-quality providers missing basic and some- worldbank.org). WNith Alok Bhargava, TLniversity of Hous- times life-threatening conditions. ton; and K. K. Singh, Banaras Hindu University. Third, there are systematic differences between qual- ity measured by the vignettes and that measured by Health Care Providers and Markets in Delhi observation. Private doctors do "too much," prescribing unnecessary treatments even when the vignettes Quality of care has often been discussed as an important indicate they know better. Public doctors do "too little," determinant of the demand for health care and the likely asking too few questions to rule out dangerous conditions health outcomes from getting that care. But it has been and spending little time with patients. This gap between a difficult concept to measure. This project has devel- knowledge and behavior can be understood given the oped a method for mcasuring the quality of clinical care incentives providers face. that is easily transferable to developing country 'I'he research suggests that training is likely to have researchers and administrators. The method was tested little effect in improving quality. There is already too large Health and Population 37 a difference between knowledge and behavior. It also sug- geographic allocation of resources in Bangladesh, and gcsts that whether patients will be better served in the equity in the financing and delivery of health services in public or private sector depends on their illness. If pri- Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Expenditure analy- mary treatment is necessary, the private sector is some- ses were carried out through a public expenditure review what better; if referral or letting an illness run its course of the Bangladesh health sector, a survey of health facil- is called for, the public sector is better. Consumers need ity efficiency in Bangladesh, and a review of national to be better informed to make the better choice. health accounts in Sri Lanka. Other analyses examined Results have been presented at World Bank seminars the private health sector in India, Sri Lanka, and the and incorporated into a health session in the World Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. And a last set of studies Bank's Public Expenditure Analysis and Management investigated the perspectives of consumers and providers course. A conference in New Delhi is planned. through an analysis of perceptions of quality in the Indian Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- state of Andhra Pradesh, an examination of the voices of vices-Jeffrey Hammer (jhammer@worldbank.org) and stakeholders in Bangladesh. and a field study of consumer Jishnu Das. With the Institute of Socio-Economic redress mechanisms at public and private hospitals in Research on Development and Democracy, Delhi. India. The research shows that in some parts of South Asia- Reports such as South India and Sri Lanka-governments do a l)as, Jishnu, and Jeffrey Hammer. 2003. "Money for Nothing: much better job of distributing subsidies in the health 'I'he D)ire Straits of Medical Practice in India." World Bank, sector than other regions. The research points to Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. different policy tools for tackling inequality, including - 2003. "Which Doctor: Combining Vignettes and Item establishing geographic allocation formulas, reallocat- Response to Measure Doctor Quality." World Bank, Develop- ing resources between different levels of care, educat- ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. ing vulnerable groups about their rights, introducing - Forthcoming. "Strained Mercy: The Quality of Medical community-based monitoring, and strengthening Care in Delhi." Economic and Political Weekly. mechanisms for redress. The research documents the dominance of the private Health Policy Research in South Asia sector in Bangladesh and India and finds a very strong private sector in Sri Lanka. It also highlights different pol- Tl his project undertook quantitative and qualitative icy instruments available to the government for working research in South Asia aimed at providing evidence in with the private sector to achieve goals. support of health sector reform and restructuring. Much Research on the role of consumers both supports the of the research was conducted by national institutions in belief that individuals and households can make a the region. Data were collected through literature reviews, difference in how health services are delivered and doc- facility and patient surveys, beneficiary assessment sur- uments their limited ability to influence health services. veys, and interviews of key informants. The research It proposes improving consumer education, developing included benefit incidence analysis, public expenditure and disseminating a patient bill of rights, building com- reviews, national health accounts, and analysis of data on munity watch committees to oversee service delivery, and health care utilization and facility costs and expendi- improving consumer redress mechanisms. An underly- tures. The results show that empirical research can and ing need is to strengthen the links between policymak- should challenge basic assumptions about the health ers and potential health care consumers and change the sector and can provide policymakers some of the tools nature of the relationship between consumers and ncedcd to improve and monitor the sector's performance. providers. Analyses of inequality in the health sector looked at The project produced a set of research papers the distribution of public health subsidies in India, the published in a volume highlighting the innovations in the 38 Health and Population papers, the contributions to advancing policy dialogue, rates of child mortality and adult morbidity because of the consultative process of commissioning and support- their persistence. What accounts for the difference? ing national research, and the approach to capacity build- Institutions are part of the answer, but little is known ing for policy research in Bangladesh, India, and Sri about the institutional determinants of effective Lanka. 'I'he research has contributed to the health delivery of public health services. policy dialogue in South Asia, and its results were incor- Through case studies in 11 developing countries, this porated into a World Bank operational report on options study is investigating what institutional factors account for the health sector in Bangladesh. for the success of effective public health systems. The Responsibility: South Asia Region, Human Develop- aim is to distill clear models that can be adapted to the ment Scctor Unit-Abdo S. Yazbeck (ayazbeck@ specific circumstances of countries seeking to improve worldbank.org), and Social Development and Environ- public health outcomes. mcnt tTnit-Nilufar Ahmad. With David H. Peters, The case studies, structured around a common Johns Hopkins lfniversity School of Public Health; analytic framework, assess system effectiveness using l,iaqLuat Ali, Shamin Ara Begum, Atia Hossain, Hamid measures of intermediate and final outcomes. The stud- Moral, and Priti Dave Sen, Ministry of Health and Fam- ies involve World Bank staff working with public health ily Welfare, Bangladesh; S. Chakraborty, Indian Institute specialists in each country to analyze and write up the of Mlanagement; Tim Ensor, tTniversity of York; Prashan- lessons from experience in their public health system. thi Javawardhane, Ravi P. Rannan-Eliya, and Aparnaa The project should lead to analytic contributions Somanathan, Institute of Policy Studies, Sri Lanka; Leela useful for World Bank operations in the health sector. It Karunaratne, uTniversity of Sri Jayawardanepura, Sri is already informing preparation of a new health sector Lanka: Ajav Mahal, Harvard tTniversity; Prasanta Maha- loan in India as well as a World Bank report on the patra, Institute of Health Systems, Hyderabad; Bejon Millennium Development Goals and health. Mlisra, Consumer VOICE, Delhi; V. R. Muraleedharan, The project will produce a volume collecting the Indian Institute of Technology; and Sunil Nandraj, country case studies as well as an overview paper World Health Organization. The Institute of Policy summarizing their key lessons for managing public health Stuidics and Sri Lanka NMinistrv of Health contributed staff programs. tiuc. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- vices-Monica Das Gupta (mdasgupta@worldbank Reports .org) and Peyvand Khaleghian. With Jaime Sepulveda, Peters. I)avid H., Abdo S. Yazbeck, Rashmi Sharma, G. N. V. Ministry of Health, Mexico; Ana Maria Malik; Somsak Raioana, Lant Pritehett, and Adam Wagstaff. 2002. BetterHealth Chunharas, Ministry of Health, Thailand; Paul Chen, (Out'omnes or India's Poor Washington, D.C.: NVorld Bank. International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur; Lalit Yazbcck, A\bdo S., and David H. I'eters, eds. 2003. Health Poliry Nath; Hong Wang, Yale University; John Fung-Chang Rewearth in South.Asia: Building C'apacityforReform. Washington, Sung, National Taiwan University College of Public D).C.: World Bank. Health; Seung-Hum Yu, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul; Ade Lucas; Olive Shisana, Human Institutional Determinants of Effective Sciences Research Council, South Africa; and Tom Delivery of Public Health Services Nchinda. Tackling vector-borne diseases and those spread through Report poor enxvironmental hygiene is essential for meeting Das Gupta, Monica. 2003. "Social Science Research and Devel- scveral of the Millennium Development Goals. While opment Effectiveness in Public Health." Paper presented at a many developing countries have succeeded in virtually plenary session of the Global Forum for Health Research, climinating these diseases, others continue to suffer high Geneva, December 3. Health ind Populition 39 Rural Health Care in China vide input into World Bank advice on the provision of social services in China's rural sector. This research project is investigating the impact of health Findings will be disseminated through working papers shocks on household consumption in rural China and and journal articles and through presentations at con- the effectiveness of different means-private, ferences, including a rural issues conference to be orga- social, and public-in dealing with those shocks. The nized by the Chinese Economists Society and the World research will use econometric analysis based on survey Bank in Hangzhou in the summer of 2004. data for a panel of thousands of rural Chinese households Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- starting from the mid-1980s. Existing panel data on rural nomics and Growth-Lixin Colin Xu (Ixul@ household behavior will be combined with data worldbank.org). With Yang Yao and Mengtao Gao, Bei- from a retrospective questionnaire that focuses on health jing University, China Center for Economic Research; status and risk coping strategies in rural Chinese and Li Gan, University of Texas at Austin. Beijing Uni- households. versity's China Center for Economic Research will con- The results are expected to influence Chinese poli- duct the survey and provide part of the funding for it as cymakers' view of rural health care issues and will pro- well as contribute staff time. 40 Health and Population Education, Labor, and Employment Assessing the Long-Term Impact Report of Early Childhood Nutrition Alderman, Harold, John Hoddinott, and Bill Kinsey. "Long-Term Consequences of Early Childhood Malnutrition." World Bank, Individuals in both developing and industrial countries Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. are subject to exogenous shocks. When such events generate variations in consumption-as when house- Child Labor and Access to Credit: holds are unable to fully insure against such shocks-they Evidence from Rural Tanzania and Vietnam lead to losses of utility. From a policy point of view the significance of such losses depends in part on whether This project examines whether access to credit can be such shocks induce path dependence. Where temporary an effective policy tool in fighting child labor and poverty. shocks have such long-lasting impacts, utility losses may Improving households' ability to insure against income be much higher. shocks through greater access to credit is often proposed This study looks at the long-term consequences of as a policy instrument for influencing child labor. Yet none nutrition shocks. It examines the impact of preschool of the empirical studies reviewed explicitly addresses the malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in effect of risk insurance or access to credit on child labor, rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects, probably because of insufficient data. instrumental variables estimator with a panel data set Using detailed household panel data from Tanzania collected over 18 years. and Vietnam, this research investigates the effect of The study finds that exposure to the 1982-84 drought access to credit (defined as collateralizable assets at the in Zimbabwe reduced height-for-age Z-scores by 0.63. household level and formal and informal lending sources This transitory shock resulted in a loss of stature of 2.3 at the village level) on household decisions on the centimeters and a loss of 0.4 grade of schooling by the allocation of time between child labor and schooling. It time a child reached young adulthood. When the results also analyzes whether families resort to child labor as a are extrapolated to estimate the impact of malnutrition mechanism to cope with income shocks (both household on adult earnings, they translate into a 12 percent reduc- and community shocks) and whether these shocks are tion in lifetime earnings from child malnutrition from any associated with a reduction in school attendance. In this cause. context it studies whether the presence of formal and The findings have been used in discussions of the informal financial institutions and the relative availabil- need for investment in nutrition and in safety nets. And ity of credit allow households to offset the effects of they have been presented in World Bank seminars, at the shocks. International Food Policy Research Institute, and in Results show that transitory income shocks (as seminars at universities in Canada, England, and the measured by accidental crop loss) lead to significantly United States. Plans to present the main findings in increased child labor. Moreover, they show that house- Zimbabwe were canceled because of the unrest in that holds with collateralizable assets are better able to country. offset the effects of these shocks. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- The results have been widely disseminated through vices-Harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank.org). presentations, including at the World Bank, the North- With John Hoddinott, International Food Policy Research east Universities Development Consortium Conference Institute; and Bill Kinsey, University of Zimbabwe and at Williams College (October 2002), and George Wash- Free University, Amsterdam. ington University (2003). 41 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty accessible to interested readers in Central Asia, Eastern Team-Kathleen Beegle (kbeegle@worldbank.org), and Europe, and the Russian Federation. Investment Climate-Roberta Gatti. With Rajeev H. Responsibility: Europe and Central Asia Rcgion, Poverty Dehejia, Columbia University and National Bureau of Reduction and Economic NManagement Sector llnit- Economic Research. Cevdet Denizer (cdenizer@worldbank.org). With Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of'l'echnology; and Reports Mehmet Eris, University of Wisconsin. Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev H. Dehejia, and Roberta Gatti. 2003. Child Labor, Crop Shocks, and Credit Constraints. NBER WVorking Paper Report 10088. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Acemoglu, Daron, Cevdet Denizer, and Nlehmet Eris. Forth- Research. coming. Human Capital, Institutions, and Growth in rawnsiioni - 2003. "Child Labor, Income Shocks, and Access to Credit." Economies. NBER W'orking Paper. Cambridge. Mass.: National Policy Research Working Paper 3075. World Bank, Develop- Bureau of Economic Research. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. The Impact of Deworming Treatment on Primary Human Capital and Growth School Performance in Busia, Kenya in Transition Economies This study investigated the effect of health gains for Some economists have noted that transition economies children on their education, focusing on the case of mcd- have abundant human capital and that this should help ical treatment for intestinal helminth (worm) infcctions in achieving high rates of growth. Others argue that skills among primary school children in rural western Kenya. acquired under socialism are unsuitable for a market- The study used a randomized evaluation methodology based system and that the abundance of human capital in which 75 primary schools in the sample were gradu- may have been overstated. Taking these arguments, this ally phased into the medical treatment program over study considers another dimension of the issue-the three years. This methodology addresses many of the role of the institutional environment in shaping returns concerns about omitted variable bias that plague earlier to human capital-and investigates the links between research. The study also collected data on household, human capital, institutional development, and economic health, nutrition, and education outcomes among the growth. 30,000 children in the baseline sample. The study first created an analytic framework for Analysis of the effects of free deworming treatment clarifying these links. It then estimated rates of return in 1998-99 shows that treatment substantially improved to education in a large number of transition economies children's health and school attendance. Treatment using household survey data from World Bank poverty reduced serious worm infections in children by half. assessments and other sources. Preliminary results Pupils receiving treatment reported being sick signifi- suggest positive and reasonably high rates of return to cantly less often, had lower rates of severe anemia, and education since the beginning of transition, especially in showed substantial height gains (averaging roughly 0.5 Eastern European economies. Work is under way to ana- centimeter). lyze the growth effects of such returns and the role of the School absenteeism declined by a quarter (7 per- institutional environment. The aim is to provide a centage points) in treatment schools. Among those receiv- more solid basis for the World Bank's efforts in poverty ing treatment, younger children (standards 1-4) attended reduction. school 15 more days a year on average, and older children Findings will be presented at the World Bank, in 10 more days. academic settings, and in a number of countries. Papers The program also had significant "spillover" effects- will be summarized in Russian to make findings epidemiological spillovers due to reduced transmission 42 Educftion, Labor, ind Employment of worm larvae that benefited the entire community and Incidence Analysis of Public Support to the those living up to 6 kilometers away from the treatment Private Education Sector in Cote d'lvoire schools. Spillover effects allowed pupils in neighboring schools to attend school three to four more days a year C6te d'Ivoire encourages private participation in edu- on average. cation, providing subsidies to recognized providers and Including the spillover benefits of treatment, sponsoring "public" students to attend private secondary the cost of increasing school participation by one year and tertiary institutions. In 1998 the general allocation is only $3.50 per child. Keeping a child in school one to private education amounted to about $28 million, 6 per- additional day costs only $0.02. That makes deworming cent of the recurrent education budget. Given C6te much less expensive than any other method of d'Ivoire's large subsidy program for private school increasing primary school participation known to the attendance-what could be called a voucher scheme- researchers. this study analyzed the incidence of public spending on The study involved extensive collaboration with students in private schools. It also compared the equity officials of the Kenyan Mlinistry of Health, with eight of public finance of private schools with that of public parasitologists in the Division of Vector-Borne Diseases finance of public schools. receiving training in parasitological techniques. To estimate the distribution of public spending across Findings have been presented in seminars in Busia, the income distribution, the study used data from the Kenya; at the World Bank's Nairobi office; and in meet- 1998 Enquete Niveau de Vie des N1anages, a nationally ings with the Kenyan minister of education. representative household survey. The working file used Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- in the analysis contains around 9,000 observations relat- vices-Harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank.org) ing to family members of school age (6-3(0 years old). Of and Sylvie Moulin; and Human Development Network, the approximately 5,100 attending school in 1997/98, Education Team-Donald Bundy. NW7ith Nlichael Kremer, 965 (19 percent) received some form of education sub- Harvard University; Edward Miguel, University of sidy, with 836 (86.5 percent) of these students going to California at Berkeley; Simon Brooker, Imperial public schools and 129 (13.5 percent) to private schools. College, London; Alfred Luoba, Kenyan Ministry of The study also analyzed the demand for private Health, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases; and Inter- schooling using regression analysis. And in collabora- nationaal Christelijk Steunfonds, Nairobi. tion with local researchers it undertook a schools survey to learn more about the revenues and expenditures of Reports private schools in C6te d'Ivoire and about the students Brooker, Simon, Edward Nliguel, Nlichael Kremer, and they serve. others. 2000. "Epidemiology of Single and Nlultiple Species The study found that for students attending public of Helminth Infections among School Children in Busia schools, the subsidy per student increases stcadily in District, Kenya." East African Mledical Journal 77(3): 157- higher expenditure quintiles, with students from fami- 61. lies in the highest quintile receiving four times as much . 2001. "The Potential of Rapid Screening NMethods for as those in the lowest quintile. Trhis finding is more Intestinal Schistosomiasis in WVestern Kenya." Annals of Trop- pronounced for tertiary students. For those attending ical,fMedicine and Parasitology 95(4): 343-5 1. private schools, the subsidy per student also increases in Hall, Andrew, Edward NMiguel. and others. 2001. "Anemia in higher quintiles, but the increase is less pronounced, Schoolchildren in Eight Countries in Africa and Asia." Public with students in the highest quintile receiving just over Health Nutrition 4: 749-56. twice as much as those in the lowest quintile. The over- Miguel, Edward, and Nlichael Kremer. 2004. "Worms: Identifying all allocation of subsidies seems to be more equitable for Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment children attending private schools than for those attend- Externalities." Aconometrica 72(l): 159-217. ing public schools. Education, Labor, and Employment 43 There is a clear tendency for the share of family edu- literature review of inequality in education, and ana- cation spending covered by subsidies to decline in higher lyzed the data. quintiles. In public schools subsidies cover almost all LTsing an education Gin index to measure inequality household education spending per child in the lowest in educational attainment, the analysis found staggering quintile, compared with 42 percent for the highest quin- gaps among groups within countries as well as across tile. In private schools the share is 81 percent for the low- countries. The analysis used two methods of calculating est quintile, and only 22 percent for the highest. 'T'hus the education ,ini index, generating a quinquennial the subsidy system seems to be progressive, and more data set for the population over 15 in 140 countries from so for private schools. 1960 to 2000. It produced five main findings: The research shows that subsidies to private schools * In most of the countries education inequality can be beneficial for increasing access to basic education declined over the past four decades. at a lower cost, important information for policymakers * Education inequality as measured by an education and international organizations promoting universal Gini index is negatively associated with average years of access to basic education. schooling, but the standard deviation of schooling shows Research findings have been disseminated through a clear Kuznets curve when average schooling increases. seminars and at the International Conference on Busi- * Gender gaps are clearly related to inequality in ness Economics in Athens on June 26-29, 2003. Results education, and the association between gender gaps and will also be presented to World Bank regional staff. education inequality becomcs stronger over time. Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, * The education KLuznets curve does not exist when Education Sector tJnit-Harry Anthony Patrinos an education Gini index is uscd-but only when stan- (hpatrinos@worldbank.org); Africa Technical Families, dard deviations are used. Human Development 2-Rachidi Radji; and Human * Per capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power Development Network, Education Team-Ayesha Vawda. parity) has a negative association with the education With Emile Bih, R6seau Ouest et Centre Africain de Gini index and a positive association with average Recherche en Education (ROCARE), C6te d'Ivoire: Chris educational attainment. Sakellariou, Nanyang 'Fechnological University, Singa- The findings have been disseminated in WVorld Bank pore; and Po Yang, State University of New York at Albany. Institute courses on poverty, trade, and western region development in China. 'I'hey also served as inputs to the Reports Qualitl of Growth (Vinod 'l'homas and others, Washing- Bih, Emile, Zakaria Berte, Raoul FranKois-Xavier Kone, and Guy ton, D.C.: World Bank, 2000), published in 10 Nlichel Okon. 2003. "Analyse de l'incidence du soutien pub- languages. lic au secteur prive de l'education." 'T'he data compiled in the project were cleaned, pub- Sakellariou, Chris, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. 2004. "Incidence licized, and made available in developing and transition Analysis of Public Support to the Private Education Sector in economies. The database is available on the Web at C6te d'Ivoire." Policy Research Working Paper 3231. World http://wvwwvv.orldbank.org/dcvformtl/forum..qog3.html. Bank, ILatin America and the Caribbean Region, Education Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and Sector UTnit, Washington, D.C. Economic Management Division-Yan Wang Yang, Po. 2002. "Incidence of Public Spending for Public and (ywang2@worldbank.org); and Latin America and the Private Education." Caribbean Region, Brasilia Office-Vinod 'homas. With Xibo Fan. Inequality in Education Reports This research project expanded and updated a database Thomas, Vinod, Yan Wang, and Xibo Fan. 2001. "Melasuring Edu- on inequality in educational attainment, conducted a cation Inc(quality: Gini Coefficients of Education." Policy 44 Education, Labor, and Employment Research Vorking Paper 2525. World Bank, World Bank Insti- Labor Markets and Vulnerability tute, Washington, D.C. 2 2003. "Measuring Education Inequality: Gini Coefficients This research examines the extent to which lahor market of Education for 140 Countries (1960-2000)." Journal of outcomes have changed with trade liberalization in three Educational Planning andAdmini.otration 17(1). East Asian countries-Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. Trade liberalization may have bcen asso- International Migration and Development ciated with job creation and growth in mean earnings in some sectors, but it may also have exposed the economy This research program on the development impact of to more and larger fluctuations of the wvorld market. The international migration aims to identify policies, regula- research investigates whether trade liberalization transmits tions, and institutional reforms that will lead to better more shocks into more exposed sectors of the domestic outcomes for migrants, for developing countries, and for economy, or whether there is more shock during periods industrial countries. NMigration is more likely to be ben- of greater openness and thus greater vulnerability for cer- eficial for developing countries in the long run if indus- tain groups of workers. trial countries perceive it to be beneficial as well and are Lacking panel data, the study forms a synthetic panel therefore willing to cooperate in designing and imple- of cohorts, defined by year of birth, using successive cross- menting sustainable reforms on their side. That is, the sectional surveys to follow a series of cohorts of randomly reforms most likely to succeed will probably be those that selected individuals over time. For Indonesia and 'l'hailand benefit both sets of countries. The research examines the the study uses labor force surveys; for Korea, labor force effect of migration on industrial countries as well as on surveys and establishment surveys. The study identifies migrants because the effect on both sets of countries will trends in key labor market indicators by subgroup of work- also depend on the success of migrants. ers and in different sectors to see how these indicators Studies focus on six topics identified as both impor- evolve over time in industries with varying exposure to the tant from a development perspective and requiring world market. It also examines the evolution of the mean additional research: and variance of earnings during "more closed" and "more * Remittances. liberalized" periods in the economy. 'l'he study then esti- * The brain drain. mates the vulnerability of workers to poverty, defined as * The temporary movement of persons (mode 4) the likelihood of their receiving earnings below a survival under the General Agreement on Trade in Services. threshold (defined as 60 percent of the national median * The link between trade, foreign direct investment, wage) conditional on their situation in the previous period. and migration. The analysis finds no significant change in year-to-year * Labor market and social protection issues. fluctuations in workers' earnings and employment after * Governance. trade was further liberalized in the 1990s. Nor did work- Analytic approaches include household surveys and ers' vulnerability differ significantly across manufactur- literature surveys. Work on the brain drain draws on cen- ing industries with different degrees of exposure to trade. sus data. And theoretical papers examine the link between While the analysis finds no obvious link between trade trade and migration in the presence of social capital. and vulnerability, it confirms that somc workers-women Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Mau- and those with less schooling-are more vulnerable than rice Schiff(mschiff@worldbank.org); Poverty Reduction others. This result reflects the dominant evidence in and Economic Management Network, Poverty Reduc- the literature that gender and skill have a strong tion Group-Richard Adams; Development Econom- discriminatory power in determining one's earnings. ics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief The research has been presented at workshops in Economist-Coralie Gevers; and Development Prospects Seoul (November 2002); Ithaca, New lork (Nlarch 2003); Group-Dilip Ratha. and Istanbul (July 2003). Edu(ation, Labor, and Employment 45 Responsibility: Development Economics, Office of the Senior also the main destination for permanent migrants Vice President and Chief Economist-Fran,ois Bour- (accounting for 49 percent), followed by Italy (35 percent). guignon; and East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Almost half the family members who have left households Reduction and Economic Management Unit- since 1990 are now living abroad. Chorching Goh. With Vivi Alatas, University of Indone- Remittances play an important part in the income sia; and Dae-II Kim, Seoul University. strategy of Albanian households, accounting for 13 percent of total household income. According to the Reports 2002 LSNIS survey, 28 percent of households received Alatas, Vivi. 2002. "Labor Market Vulnerabiliry in Indonesia: A Syn- some form of private transfer from individuals or insti- thetic Cohort Panel Simulation Exercise." World Bank, East Asia tutions in the 12 months before the survey. and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Man- This study has provided the analytic basis for agement Unit, Washington, D.C. additional research on the role of migration networks in Bourguignon, Fran,ois, and Chorching Goh. 2004. "Trade and individuals' decision to migrate and on the role of migra- Labor Market Vulnerability in Indonesia, Korea, and T'hai- tion in the income strategies of the rural poor. It also has land." In Kathie Krumm and Homi Kharas, eds., East Asia provided the basis for a chapter in the World Bank's Integrates:A TradePolit AgendaforShared Growth. Washington, 2002 poverty assessment of Albania, the first such report D.C.: World Bank. to dedicate a full chapter to migration and its links to poverty and rural development. Findings have been Migration, Poverty, and Income Strategies discussed with local stakeholders and policymakers and of Rural Households in Albania will be further disseminated through workshops. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Migration may be the most important social, political, and Team-Kathleen Beegle (kbeegle@worldbank.org) and economic phenomenon in postcommunist Albania. Calogero Carletto. With Benjamin Davis and Alberto According to some estimates, around a fifth of the pop- Zezza, Food and Agriculture Organization; and Marco ulation has left the country since 1990, and there have Stampini, University of Pisa. been large-scale population movements from rural to urban areas. Report Using data from a recent population census and the Carletto, Calogero, Benjamin Davis, Nlarco Stampini, and Alberto 2002 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) Zezza. "Internal NMobility and International Migration in Alba- survey in Albania, this research has documented the nia." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, demographic transition under way in the country, includ- D.C. ing the incidence and patterns of migration. It has also carried out a micro-level analysis of households' decision Poetry, Literacy, and Empowerment to migrate, estimating two multinomial logit models to for Rural Yemeni Women investigate what determines the decision to migrate, temporarily or permanently, to different destinations. The illiteracy rate for women in the Republic of Yemen The study finds that almost half the households in is very high-77 percent in 1996, according to UNICEE Albania were exposed to some form of migration in the And Ministry of Education personnel find that rural 1990s. For rural Albanians migration is one of the women do not view literacy efforts aimed at them as rel- preferred coping strategies to escape poverty. Tirana is evant to their lives. Nloreover, there has been a decline the main destination for internal migration, a process in poetry composition by rural Yemeni women and with that appears to have accelerated in the second half of the it a loss of social voice. In the Republic of Yemen poetry 1990s. Greece is by far the most important destination is an important tool for managing conflict and express- for temporary migrants, chosen by 8 of 10. Greece is ing personal wishes and opinions. But for rural women 4 6 Education, Labor, and Employment modernity has led to a decline in occasions for poetry Report composition. Adra, Najwa. Forthcoming. "Literacy through Poetry: A Pilot This study explored potential links between traditional Project for Women in the Republic of Yemen." Wltomen's arts and effective learning strategies by using learners' Studies Quarterly. oral poetic traditions to teach literacy. It addressed two broad questions: Can a focus on local oral traditions Semiparametric Methods for Evaluation encourage women to attend literacy classes? And does of Social Policies and Programs women's attainment of literacy skills encourage the perpetuation of local poetic traditions and culturally Econometric work to evaluate the impact of social pro- acceptable modes of self-expression? grams and policies typically assumes that the impact is In a community-driven pilot literacy project using the same across the distribution of the indicator under the language experience approach to community liter- review (such as income). This assumption stems from the acy as well as community counseling learning, women fact that in a traditional regression setting, parametric were taught reading and writing skills through the methods yield one parameter estimate for the impact transcription of poems that they and their neighbors whether the program or policy is captured through a composed. These poems were printed and disseminated continuous or categorical variable. Even when interac- within and outside the community. tion effects are used, the impact is generally assumed to A formal evaluation of the pilot in Nlay 2003 found that be the same for all those with the given interaction. But results surpassed targets and expectations. Of the 95 in reality some households may benefit (or suffer) more learners completing the first year, 77 percent had met or than others from a program or policy. surpassed the goals of reading and writing a short One way to avoid imposing such assumptions is to rely paragraph and reading short verses from the Quran and on semiparametric methods. This research explored the other works in print. application of semiparametric methods to estimate the Moreover, the pilot appears to have overcome disdain impact of the minimum wage on the distribution of for local lore among younger learners and renewed inter- income. The main findings of this work are in line with est in traditional folklore among learners of all ages. the literature: increases in the minimum wage tend to Supervisors and teachers agreed that the method helped reduce wage inequality when employment effects are not learners develop new skills of self-expression and boosted taken into account, but the impact may be reversed self-confidence. And community attitudes toward female when employment effects are included and a sufficiently education have changed so that it is no longer considered large weight is placed at the bottom of the income dis- shameful for a young girl or an unmarried woman to tribution (where those losing their jobs are located). attend classes in the village. Since a key objective was to apply new analytic meth- The pilot sparked much interest among local stake- ods, the study also used decompositions of the Gini holders and potential international donors. The Yemeni index into gap-narrowing and reranking effects to ana- Social Fund for Development, which explores alterna- lyze the wage and employment effects of changes in tive methods of teaching literacy to women, took over the minimum wage and developed a risk-adjusted funding and administration of the pilot in January 2003 welfare framework to analyze the impact of such policies, and added four new classes. An informational meeting distinguishing between ex ante and ex post evaluation in June 2003 was attended by representatives of a num- methods. Other work analyzed different aspects of wage ber of organizations. inequality, including gender, and the effect of changes Responsibility: NMiddle East and North Africa Region, in wages on poverty. Social and Economic Development Group-Carmen Some of the methods developed are being used in Niethammer (cniethammer@vworldbank.org). With Najwa subsequent studies. The work on risk-adjusted welfare, Adra. for example, is being used to study cash crops in Africa. Education, Labor, and Employment 47 In addition, work on Brazil and Colombia informed a Colombia." Archivos de Economia 247. Colombian Department World Bank Latin America and the Caribbean Region of National Planning, Bogota. report on inequality (David de Ferranti, Guillermo E. Angel-Urdinola, Diego, and Quentin Wodon. 2003. "The Perry, Francisco Ferreira, and Michael Walton, Inequal- Gender Wage Gap and Poverty in Colombia." Archivos de ity in Latin America: Breaking with History? Washington, Economfa 239. Colombian Department of National Planning, D.C.: World Bank, 2004). The research also provided Bogota. input into poverty assessments of Colombia and Paraguay. . 2003. "Relative Labor Supply and the Gender Wage Gap: The methodology for risk-adjusted welfare analysis Evidence for Colombia and the United States." Archivos de was presented in training sessions for World Bank staff Economia 238. Colombian Department of National Planning, and at a conference on risk and vulnerability organized Bogota. by the World Bank and the International Food Policy . 2004. "Impact Evaluation under Risk Aversion: Ex Ante Research Institute. Research findings were also pre- or Ex Post?" World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean sented at a Georgetown University seminar and at a Region, Poverty Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Midwestern Economic Association conference in St. . Forthcoming. "The Impact on Inequality of Raising the Louis. Minimum Wage: Gap-Narrowing and Reranking Effects." Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Labour Poverty Sector Unit-Quentin Wodon (qwodon@ - . "Do Changes in the Minimum Wage Affect Youth and worldbank.org) and Diego Angel-Urdinola. With Paul Adults Differently? Evidence for Paraguay." World Bank, Latin Makdissi, Sherbrooke University, Canada. America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Reports Makdissi, Paul, and Quentin Wodon. 2003. "Risk-Adjusted Mea- Angel-Urdinola, Diego. 2003. "A Nlinimum Wage Increase May sures of Wage Inequality and Safety Nets." Economics Bulletin Have an Adverse Impact on Wage Inequality: The Case of 9(1): 1-10. 48 Education, Labor, and Employment Environment Capital Markets and Environmental Performance: Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure Evidence from the Republic of Korea and Environment-Susmita Dasgupta (sdasgupta@ worldbank.org), Ben6it Laplante, and Craig Meisner. With Designing effective incentives for pollution control Jong Ho Hong, Hanyang University, Seoul; and Nlandu requires understanding what determines the environ- Mamingi, University of West Indies, Barbados. mental performance of industrial enterprises. The World Bank's Development Research Group recently pioneered Reports studies of the role and impact of local communities and Dasgupta, Susmita, Jong Ho Hong, Benoit Laplante, and Nlandu capital markets in exerting pressure on enterprises to Mamingi. Forthcoming. "Disclosure of Environmental Viola- improve their environmental performance. Results show tions and the Stock Market in the Republic of Korea." Policy that capital markets do react to news about the Research Working Paper. World Bank, Development Research environmental performance of an enterprise. Group, Washington, D.C. While this finding is of interest, of much greater inter- Hong, Jong Ho, Benoit Laplante, and Craig Meisner. 2003. "Pub- est is whether the reactions of capital markets (that is, lic Disclosure of Environmental Violations in the Republic of drops in market value) induce enterprises to improve their Korea." Policy Research Working Paper 3126. World Bank, environmental performance. No study has looked at this Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. question in developing countries. This research is aimed at filling that gap, using data from the Republic of Korea. Climate Change and Rural Poverty Since 1989, in what may be the longest-running environmental public disclosure program, Korean envi- The world takes notice of extreme climate events such ronmental authorities have published a monthly list of as floods, hurricanes, and prolonged droughts, because enterprises violating the country's environmental rules and they can have dramatic effects on those in their path. regulations. In 1993-2001 these monthly lists recorded When the victims also happen to be poor, the effects can more than 7,000 violation events, involving more than be extreme-hunger, disease, and even death. But 3,400 different companies. The study undertook a because of inadequate information, monitoring the impact comprehensive descriptive analysis of this data set. Results of natural disasters on poor rural communities has been suggest that the news media have given important (though difficult in many parts of the world. perhaps declining) coverage to the violation lists, focus- This study will investigate the links between climate ing on publicly traded companies, failures to operate and rural poverty. First, it will explore to what extent pollution abatement equipment, and prosecutions. climate can explain the observed distribution of agricul- The research also looked at the reaction of investors tural productivity and rural income. Using economic to the monthly violation lists. Using event study method- agricultural data and climate satellite data, the study will ology, it found that enterprises appearing on these lists quantify the effect of climate on agriculture in several experienced a significant decline in their market valua- countries of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, tion. Of 96 events, 61 (63.5 percent) had an impact on Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, and Republica Bolivariana securities returns. And 46 of 61 firms (75.4 percent) deVenezuela). Itwill then use this information to link cli- responded unambiguously to environmental news. These mate and rural income. The study will also examine tech- findings indicate the potential role of capital markets in niques used by farmers to adapt to local climate conditions. inducing enterprises to invest in their environmental Second, the study will examine how climate in Latin performance. America affects natural resource management and rural 49 projects supported by the World Bank. It will identify conclusion is that there is very little empirical evidence which projects are expected to be especially sensitive to in support of the hypothesis. climate conditions and what policies or modifications The analysis drew on data from a 1995 European might reduce this sensitivity. Bank for Reconstruction and Development survey Third, the study will forecast effects from global of investment projects undertaken by a sample of warming. Using climate forecasts from climate models, multinational corporations from around the world the study will calculate a detailed forecast of what will in transition economies of Eastern Europe and the happen to agriculture in the region. Changes in rural former Soviet Union in the first half of the 1990s; income will also be forecast. This analysis will carefully firm-level data from the Amadeus database on investment integrate adaptation into these empirically based esti- flows within Western Europe and between European mates. And it will identify policies to cope with both short- Union member countries and transition economies in the and long-term changes in climate. late 1990s; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Depart- on average emissions per unit of output; U.S. Census ment-Ariel Dinar (adinar@worldbank.org). With Anto- Bureau data on average abatement costs per unit of nio Avila, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation output; and information from various sources on (Embrapa); Alan Basist, Commodity Hedgers; Robert corruption and lack of the rule of law across host Evenson, Robert Mendelsohn, and Christopher Timmins, countries. Yale University; Cooperative Program for the Agricultural- The study has added to our knowledge of the poten- Technological Development of the Southern Cone tial benefits and drawbacks of foreign direct investment (Procisur), Uruguay; and Cooperative Program for in developing countries and to our understanding of the Agricultural-Technological Innovation of the Andean channels through which corruption may contribute to Group (Prociandino), Rep6blica Bolivariana de poverty as broadly defined. Venezuela. Findings have been presented at the World Bank International Trade Seminar Series (June 2001), Corruption, Pollution, and Foreign Empirical Investigations in International Trade Confer- Direct Investment ence at Purdue University (November 2001), Interna- tional Atlantic Economic Society Conference in Foreign investors are often suspected of relocating their Paris (March 2002), Yale University School of Manage- pollution-intensive production to developing and tran- ment Seminar Series (April 2002), and meetings of the sition economies, which may have good environmental American Economic Association in San Diego (January protection laws but lack good enforcement. Lax enforce- 2004). ment tends to be correlated with bureaucratic corruption. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- So pollution-intensive multinational firms may be par- Beata Smarzynska (bsmarzynska@worldbank.org). ticularly inclined to locate production facilities in corrupt host countries if it is cheaper to "purchase" the ability Reports to pollute through bribery than to acquire the technol- Smarzynska, Beata, and Miariana Spatareanu. 2003. "Impact of ogy to reduce emissions. Labor Market and Environmental Regulations on Foreign This study tested the hypothesis that host country cor- Direct Investment." World Bank, Development Research ruption attracts disproportionately more foreign invest- Group, Washington, D.C. ment that is relatively pollution intensive. Empirical Smarzynska, Beata, and Shang-Jin Wei. 2001. "Pollution Havens analysis examined the relationship between the pollu- and Foreign Direct Investment: Dirty Secret or Popular Myth?" tion intensity of inward foreign direct investment and the Policy Research Working Paper 2673. World Bank, Develop- performance of the host country on environmental stan- ment Research Group. Washington, D.C. dards and corruption (or lack of the rule of law). The broad 50 Environment Economic Instruments for Habitat Conservation effectiveness formula. For each policy scenario TAMARIN reports, in tabular and mapped form, eco- The Central Atlantic Forest Corridor of Brazil exempli- nomic outcomes (such as expenditure on incentives and fies the issues that arise when economic pressures the opportunity cost of land selected for conservation) and threaten important biodiversity resources. The Atlantic environmental outcomes (including land cover, habitat Forest is ranked by many conservation biologists among connectivity, edge effects, and representation of differ- the habitats with highest priority for conservation, and ent subecosystems). The central concern is whether the section in the south of the state of Bahia among its uncoordinated individual responses to incentives can most important parts. But this section is now reduced to yield connected habitats large enough to sustain viable relatively small fragments. MIoreover, less than a fifth is populations of key fauna. protected, and the rest is threatened by conversion, often The research has found that land in South Bahia has to uses with low economic value. Without interventions a relatively low market value, with forested land worth to maintain, expand, and link habitats, the long-term about 70 percent less than otherwise equivalent land. This viability of this ecosystem is in doubt. suggests that tradeoffs between conservation and agri- Prevailing approaches to constructing biodiversity culture may be modest and that incentive-based policies corridors rely on land use zoning, which tends to be inef- have the potential to achieve conservation goals at rela- fective when it imposes large uncompensated costs on tively low cost. These findings have implications for landholders. An alternative is to offer incentives for envi- several types of economic instruments now under ronmentally sustainable land uses, on the model of the discussion in Brazil and elsewhere, including payments U.S. Conservation Reserve Program or the Costa Rican for carbon sequestration services from regeneration. Environmental Services Payment Program. But whether Project findings, data, and tools have been presented such an approach is affordable or is effective for bio- to the management of the Ecological Corridors Project diversity corridors has not been known. (part of the Pilot Program to Conserve the Brazilian Rain This project was designed to find cost-effective, Forest, a joint effort of the Brazilian government, civil economically attractive, and socially acceptable policies society, and the international community), which is for conservation of the forest section in South Bahia and designing biodiversity corridor policy for the study area. of similar biodiversity hotspots. The project constructed Conservation International has adapted and refined the and applied a bioeconomic model representing the eco- TAMARIN framework for application in other biodi- nomic and environmental impact of specific land use con- versity hotspots, including Madagascar. And TAMARIN figurations and carried out a simulation of incentive-based has shown potential for use as a tool to facilitate negoti- land use policies. It defined an environmental objective ation between stakeholder groups. Information on function, gathered and integrated geographic data on TAMARIN, which is freely distributed, is available on land characteristics, defined biologically distinct sub- the Web at http://www.tamarinmodel.org. zones of the study area, estimated a hedonic model of land Findings have been disseminated through two value and imputed it across the landscapc, and con- workshops in Salvador, Bahia, one in June 2001 for structed a software model, TAMARIN, that draws on government officials and environmental organizations these components. TANIARIN is a spatially explicit and the other in December 2003 for the management (geographic information system-based) model that rep- committee of the Bahia Ecological Corridor. The work resents land cover at a 30-meter resolution and incorpo- also has been cited in a World Bank Institute course on rates planning units of 1 square kilometer. territorial development in Brazil. The simulations cnvision an auction-based program Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- similar to the lT.S. Conservation Reserve Program, where ture and Environment-Kenneth M. Chomitz landholders voluntarily bid to put land under conserva- (kchomitz@worldbank.org). With Institute for Compu- tion easements and the bids are ranked by a simple cost- tational Earth System Science, tJniversity of California Environment 51 at Santa Barbara: XV. Wayt Thomas, New York Botanical fragile lands, water resources, global emissions, and envi- Gardens; Andre Mauricio de Carvalho, Comissao Exec- ronmental institutions. utiva do Plano da Lavoura Cacaueira (CEPLAC), Brazil; Results of the research, presented to World Bank Industrial Economics, UJnited States; and Timothy staff, have contributed to priority setting for regions by Thomas. The Rain Forest Trust Administration tJnit the World Bank's Environment Department and to the contributed funding for the research, Instituto Brasileiro improvement of environmental management by the de Geografia a Estatistica contributed data, and Con- World Bank. servation International (Brazil and the LUnited States), the The project has created a database on environmen- Center for Advanced Biodiversity Science, the Federal tal indicators and World Bank lending and analytic and University of Nlinas Gerais, and Instituto de Estudios advisory activities in a composite format (Excel) that S6cioambientais do Sul da Bahia contributed data and allows consideration of alternative scenarios for such staff time. activities. The complete set of interactive indicators and the supporting database are available on the Web at Reports http://www.worldbank.org/nipr/Atrium/mapping.html. Chomitz. Kenneth NI., K. Alger, 'T'imothy S. Thomas. H. Orlando, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- and P. Vila Nova. "Opportunity Costs of Conservation in a ture and Environment-David Wheeler (dwheelerl@ Biodiversitv Hotspot: 'I'he Case of Southern Bahia." worldbank.org), Susmita Dasgupta, Uwe Deichmann, Hardner, Jared. 1999. "Land I Ise'l'rends and Conservation Oppor- and Maureen Cropper. With Kiran Pandey, Piet Buys, and tunitics in the Atlantic Forest of Southern Bahia, Brazil." World Craig Meisner. Bank, Development Research (iroup, WVashington, D.C. Keare, Douglas. and Richard L. Barrows. 2002. "Survey of Economic Report Instruments for Land NManagement in Developing Countries." Buys, Piet, Susmita Dasgupta, Craig Nleisner, Kiran Pandy, David Stoms, David NI., Kenneth NI. Chomitz, and Frank XV. Davis. Wheeler, Katharine Bolt, Kirk Hamilton, and Limin Wang. 2004. "'FANIARIN: A Landscape Framework for Evaluating 2003. "Measuring tJp: New Directions for Environmental Economic Incentives for Rainforest Restoration." L.andscapeand Programs at the World Bank." Policy Research Working Paper Urban Planning 68(1): 95-108. 3097. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Stoms, David NI., Frank W.1 Davis, Richard L. C(hurch, and Ross D.C. A. Gerard. 2002. "Economic Instruments for Conservation: Final Report to the W'orld Bank." World Bank, Development Fiscal Incentives for Conservation in Brazil Research Group, Washington, D.C. 'I'homas, WV. Wavt, and Andrc NIairicio de Carvalho. "Vegetation Recently there has been growing interest in promoting of Coastal Bahia." habitat conservation through the use of direct or indirect incentives for land protection. While theoretical analy- Environmental Indicators sis suggests that such programs could provide a flexible, cost-effective approach to conservation, few examples This project responds to the need for better environ- exist in the developing world. Consequently, much skep- mental measures to guide the World Bank in setting ticism remains about their practical feasibility and effec- priorities for its environmental lending and analytic and tiveness. A key question is how to reduce the transaction advisory activities. The study has constructed compara- costs associated with providing incentives to individual ble indicators for the World Bank's priorities and its landholders. actual environmental lending and analytic and advisory This research project examines one of the largest and activitics in all member countries. IUsing these indicators, longest-running conservation incentive programs in the it has completed comparisons of priorities and actual developing world: the ICMS Ecol6gico (Ecological Value activities relating to six themes: pollution, biodiversity, Added Tax) programs of Brazil. Over the past decade 52 Environment several Brazilian states have modified their revenue shar- The research has been presented at the Conference ing arrangements so as to provide incentives for munici- on Developing Markets for Forest Environmental Ser- pios (counties) to create and maintain protected areas. The vices in Vancouver in October 2000, at the World Parks research addresses fundamental questions about the Conference in Durban in 2003, at the M9exican Forest political economy of thesc programs: Institute, and informally in Brazil. * A\ Iir is the distributional impact of these programs? Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- Do they favor poor areas? NX h r are the preconditions for ture and Environment-Kenneth NI. Chomitz their adoption? (kchomitz@worldbank.org). With Peter Mlay, Fernando * I)o these programs stimulate the creation of public Veiga Neto, and Valdir Denardin, Federal Rural UJni- and private reserves? If so, how and why do they work? versity of Rio de Janeiro; and Wilson Loureiro, Parand How are the incentives transmitted to landholders? Environmental Institute. 'T'he project is examining the ICMIS Ecol6gico expe- rience in two states, Parand and Minas Gerais, using Report quantitative and qualitative methods. Qualitative analy- Mlay, Peter, Fernando Veiga Neto, Valdir Denardin, and \Vilson ses, now complete, examined institutional issues, look- Loureiro. 2002. "Using Fiscal Instruments to Encourage ing inside the black boxes of municipal and state Conservation: Nlunicipal Responses to the 'Ecological' Value- administrations to understand how and why the system Added 'Fax in Parand and NMinas Gerais, Brazil." In Stefano functions as it does. These analyses were based on struc- f'agiola, Joshua Bishop, and Natasha Landell-Mills, eds., Sell- tured interviews at the municipal and state lcvels. ing Forest En zironmenta/lerctices:,AIlarket-Based,llechanisms for Quantitative analyses wvill use municipal-level data on Conservation. London: Earthscan. fiscal distributions, protected areas, poverty rates, and other socioeconomic and geophysical characteristics. Foreign Direct Investment and Pollution Havens Distributional studies will correlate net gains or losses from ICNIS Ecol6gico with poverty rates, proxies for This study aims to contribute to the debate on the demand for environmental amenities, and socio- pollution haven hypothesis-the contention that strin- political characteristics of the mutnicipio. Econometric gent environmental regulation in industrial countries analysis wvill test whether the ICNIS Ecol6gico programs drives firms from those countries to establish plants in had an incentive effect, using program-induced variations developing countries with more lax regulation. While in payments per hectare as the basis of a natural there has been little econometric work to test this hypoth- experiment. esis, empirical studies have suggested that there is no Field studies show that municipal authorities do in fact evidence to support it. use the municipal-level incentive to motivate conserva- But analytic weaknesses in the earlier work suggest tion actions by individual landholders. 'lThis suggests a need for more testing. Many of these studies probably that conservation incentive programs may be able to suffer from omitted variable bias, neglecting the influ- greatly reduce operational costs by working at the munic- ence of agglomeration and relative abundance of skilled ipal rather than landholder level. But further work is labor in explaining the incidence of foreign direct invest- needcd to assess the effectiveness of these actions. ment. Nlost have been only loosely motivated by the Findings wvill be of particular interest to Brazil, where theoretical literature on location choice or pollution emis- more states are considering adopting these programs sions and abatement. And many have been limited by the and where there is a national debate about fiscal reform level of aggregation and the inability to measure that could affect the programs' continuation. More environmental stringency across regions and pollution broadly, an assessment of how these programs work intensity across industries. could inform the design of new, more ambitious programs This study, designed to overcome such analytic involving incentive payments directly to landholders. weaknesses, econometrically tests the pollution haven Environment 53 hypothesis by examining foreign direct investment The focus is mainly on the hydrological values of inflows across provinces in China using a location choice maintaining habitats important to biodiversity. The study model. Chinese data present an ideal test for the hypoth- will investigate the science: To what extent, and under esis: China has been the largest developing country what biogeophysical conditions, does maintaining recipient of foreign direct investment since 1990, the dis- biodiversitv-related habitats reduce erosion, sedimen- tribution of the investment across provinces has been tation, and flooding risk and increase dry-season flows? highly uneven, and environmental regulations are imple- The project has several complementary parts. In an mented at the provincial level. initial global overview the project will integrate global 'The econometric model is derived from a well- data sets on soils, climate, topography, biodiversity, for- specified theoretical framework, incorporating a firm pro- est cover, and population (mostly at a 1- to 5-kilometer duction and abatement decision model, agglomeration, and resolution) to identify areas where the links between the relative abundance of skilled labor. The model is biodiversity, hydrology, and poverty are likely to be estimated with conditional logit, using data on joint ven- important. It will also sponsor literature syntheses by tures, effective environmental levies on water pollution as experts in hydrology, biodiversity, and rural livelihoods. measures of environmental stringency, and estimates of National and mesoscale studies will take a much finer look Chinese emissions and abatement costs at the industry at the issues, using newly available data on the geo- (three-digit ISIC) level as measures of pollution intensity. graphic distribution of poverty and on land cover and Although the analysis is incomplete, preliminary biodiversity correlates. Possible areas for analysis include results show that relatively high pollution levies deter Central America, Ecuador, and the Philippines. A final investment from Hong Kong (China), Macao (China), and global synthesis will incorporate the findings of the case Taiwan (China). But they attract investment from OECD and field studies as well as improved geographic data on and other non-Chinese countries-the reverse of the a world scale. pollution haven hypothesis. Based on its findings, the study will attempt to iden- The preliminary results have been presented at work- tify workable strategies to address any externality prob- shops in the UJnited States. lems related to land cover and to promote biodiversity Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- with improved livelihoods. The results should help the ture and Environment-Hua Wang (hwangl@ World Bank respond to increasing requests from clients worldbank.org). for advice and assistance in establishing payment systems for environmental services. The Functional Value of Biodiversity Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- and Its Correlates ture and Environment-Kenneth M. Chomitz (kchomitz@worldbank.org). With Thomas Tomich, Efforts to incorporate biodiversity into development Meine van Noordwijk, and David Thomas, Interna- projects and policies have been frustrated by a lack of tional Center for Research in Agroforestry; Kate Sebas- comprehensive, science-based assessments of the func- tian and Stanley Wood, International Food Policy tional contribution of biodiversity conservation to rural Research Institute; Ellen Douglas and Charles Voros- livclihoods and economic development. To help remedy marty, University of New Hampshire; and Jeffrey Richey, this situation, this project aims to provide systematic University of Washington. assessments, for significant areas of the humid tropics, of the functional values of forest-derived biodiversity and Global Overlay-Brazil its correlates in promoting local livelihoods and resilience to economic and environmental shocks. It will also assess This study analyzed the economic and environmental the nature, magnitude, and geographic scope of these aspects of land use and forest conservation in two parts functional values and their relationship to poverty. of Brazil, the Amazon Basin and the state of Minas 54 Environment (Gerais. 'The goal was to examine potential land use poli- The third component, focusing on the Amazon, ana- cics and to assess the complementarities or tradeoffs lyzed spatial econometric patterns of deforestation using they prescnt for three goals-protecting biodiversity, fine-scale data on agricultural land use. It also constructed mitigating climate change, and providing local economic a map of the farm gate price of cattle (a hypothesized benefits. determinant of incentives for deforestation) based on a 'I'hc study had three components, all centered on survey of Amazonian slaughterhouses. Under traditional how policies will change spatial patterns of incentives for land uses of pasture and some annual crops, agricultural forest prescrvation, management, and conversion and, in prospects for the Amazon Basin decline with increasing turn, how alternative spatial patterns of exploitation and rainfall. This suggests that restricting deforestation in conversion affect economic output, carbon sequestra- moister areas of the Western Amazon would entail minor tion or emissions, and habitats of particular importance opportunity costs while providing significant benefits in for biodiversity. To the extent possible, a geographic biodiversity and carbon storage. information system (GIS) framework was used to inte- The project has contributed to the ongoing debate in grate economic, carbon, and biodiversity information. Brazil on the reformulation of the Forest Code and to 'The first component assessed the potential effects of World Bank economic and sector work and dialogue changes in the implementation of the legal forest reserve with Brazil relating to development and environment in re(luiremcnt. This long-standing (and imperfectly the Amazon. It has also contributed to project dialogue cntorccd) requirement obliges Brazilian landholders to and design for the Prototype Carbon Fund. And it has maintain a fixed proportion of each property under nat- provided a basis for discussions with the federal gov- ural vegetation. The project constructed a spatially ernment, state governments, and environmental orga- explicit simtulation model for Minas Gerais that assessed nizations in Brazil on the implementation of the forest the impact on forests and agriculture of permitting trade reserve requirement. Project results were featured in in these obligations under different scenarios. The results the World Bank's World Development Report 2003: suggest that allowing trade could drastically reduce land- Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World (New York: holders' cost of complying with the regulation, making Oxford University Press, 2002). it easier to enforce and improving environmental The research has been presented at a workshop on outcomcs. Allowing wider ambits of trade (biomes or NMarket-Based Instruments for Environmental Protection river basins rather than microwatersheds) would reduce at Harvard University's John F Kennedy School of Gov- costs, provide greater protection to areas of higher impor- ernment (July 1999); a workshop on Land Use for Con- tance for biodiversity, and probably increase carbon servation and Development: Getting the Incentives storage. Right in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil, for state-level officials 'I'he second component looked at historical patterns engaged in land use planning and regulation in the Ama- of plantation and woodland exploitation related to Minas zon (October 1999); a meeting of the International Gerais's charcoal-fueled pig iron industry, interpreting Regional Science Association in Montreal (December them through simple models of plantation and pig iron 1999); a series of environmental debates in the World operation. The goal was to elucidate the effect of plan- Bank's Brasilia office (May 2000); a meeting of the Inter- tation subsidies and a ban on woodland exploitation for national Association of Agricultural Economists in Berlin charcoal on greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity (July 2000); a congress on Brazilian rural economics and loss related to pig iron production. Though data are sociology in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais (July 2003); a wcak, it appcars that this policy combination succeeded BIOECON workshop in Venice for academics and in shifting Minas Gerais's pig iron industry toward zero researchers (August 2003); a World Bank Institute dis- net carbon emissions. Payments for carbon sequestration tance learning seminar on territorial development at sev- services could help smaller pig iron producers maintain eral locations in Northeast Brazil (October 2003); and the prodtuction on an environmentally sound basis. International Forum on Territorial Development in Environment 5 5 Fortaleza, Brazil, for government officials, nongovern- Technical Paper 515. Washington, D.C. (Also published in mental organizations, and academics (November Portuguese as Amaz6nia Sustentdvel: limitantes e oportaunidadespara 2003). o desenvolvimento rural, Serie Parcerias, World Bank, Brasilia Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- Office, 2000.) ture and Environment-Kenneth M. Chomitz (kchomitz@worldbank.org). With Timothy S. Thomas; Landfill Gas Utilization in Sub-Saharan Africa Eugenio Arima, Amazon Institute of People and Envi- ronment (IMAZON), Brazil; Peter May, Federal Rural In African cities, where populations are growing rapidly, University of Rio de Janeiro; Aline Tristao Bernardes; municipal waste will increase proportionately, providing Ant6nio Salazar Brandao; and Biodiversitas, Brazil. The a potentially important energy source. Using urban waste research was funded in part by the Denmark Trust Fund for energy production mitigates the environmental impact through the Global Overlay Program. Instituto Brasileiro of urban waste disposal while providing relatively clean de Geografia a Estatistica provided data for the energy in the form of methane for direct combustion (such research. as in heating and cooking) or electricity generation. But this potential energy source is not being tapped. Indeed, Reports few African cities are aware of how much waste is being Arima, Eugenio. 2001. "Incentivos fiscais e de credito para pecuaria generated, collected, and disposed of. na Amaz6nia Legal." To help evaluate the potential for landfill gas utiliza- Bernardes, Aline Tristao. 1999. "Environmental Inspection, tion in Sub-Saharan Africa, this project assessed the Enforcement, and NMonitoring System, Minas Gerais, Brazil." availability of data on urban waste in the region and - 1999. "Some NMechanisms for Biodiversity Protection in reviewed the accuracy and reliability of the data. To Brazil, with Emphasis on Their Application in the State of identify cities offering good opportunities for landfill NMinas Gerais." gas capture, the study then applied a specially tailored Chomitz, Kenneth NI. Forthcoming. "Transferable Development methodology integrating different sources of information. Rights and Forest Protection: An Exploratory Analysis." Inter- The first two criteria adopted-a population of more nationalRegionalScience Review. than 1 million and annual rainfall exceeding 635 Chomirz, Kenneth NI., and Peter H. Nlay. "Iron and Carbon in the millimeters-do not mean that cities with less popula- Cerrado: Environmental Impacts of Charcoal Production and tion or less rainfall would be ineligible for landfill gas cap- lJse in South-Eastern Brazil." World Bank, Development ture projects. Cities with a small population but more Research Group, Washington, D.C. organic content in municipal solid waste could generate Chomitz, Kenneth NI., and Timothy S. Thomas. 2001. "Geo- as much landfill gas as a large city. And a city with a large graphic Patterns of Land tJse and Land Intensity in the Brazil- population could generate substantial landfill gas with less ian Amazon." Policy Research Working Paper 2687. World rain (such as Dakar). Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. A review of the data showed that two good candidates - 2003. "Determinants of Land Use in Amaz6nia: A Fine- for landfill gas capture projects are Conakry (with a Scale Spatial Analysis." American JournalofAgriculturalEconomics potential of 5.4 megawatts) and Dakar (8.5 megawatts). 85(4): 1016-28. A simple financial analysis suggests that such projects Chomitz, Kenneth NI., Timothy S. Thomas, and Antonio Salazar would have an internal rate of return of about 35 percent Brandao. 2003. "Creating Nlarkets for Habitat Conservation in Conakry and 26 percent in Dakar, and a payback When Habitats Are Heterogeneous." Paper presented at period of less than seven years. BIOECON conference, Venice, August. The methodology developed will be used for screen- Schneider, Robert R., Adalberto Verissimo, Eug8nio Arima, Car- ing projects in Sub-Saharan Africa proposed for financ- los SouzaJr., and Paulo Barreto. 2002. SustainableAmazon:Lim- ing by the Prototype Carbon Fund or Community itations and Opportunities for Rural Development. World Bank Development Carbon Fund. 56 Environment Responsibility: Energy and Water Department, Energy Unit- Report Nlasaki 'Iakahashi (mtakahashi@worldbank.org). With Considine, Timothy, and Donald Larson. 2004. "The Environment Fatimata Ouedraogo. as a Factor of Production." Policy Research Working Paper 3271. World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, Report D.C. Ouedraogo, Fatimata. 2003. "Landfill Gas Capture Opportunity." ESNIAP 'Fechnical Series. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Measuring the Economic Value of Environmental Protection Projects: Methodology and Applications Markets for Environmental Resources to Armenia's Lake Sevan The U.S. market for sulfur dioxide emission permits is Lake Sevan, the largest high-altitude reservoir of fresh- seen as a model for managing air pollution-one with water in the Transcaucasus and among the highest lakes implications for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, which in the world, has been sharply depleted over the past 50 envisions using tradable assets such as these permits as years. As a result of withdrawals for irrigation and energy a way to control greenhouse gas emissions. But some envi- production, the lake's level has fallen by 18 meters, its ronmental advocates believe that the creation of such surface area by 15 percent, and its volume of water by assets slows the adoption of new (and less-polluting) more than 40 percent. The Armenian government is technologies. This study considers how inventories of sul- working on an action plan to stop or partially reverse the fur dioxide permits affect technology choices, drawing damage. The costs of these actions are estimated to be lessons from the long-standing U.S. program for the high. The benefits have not yet been estimated. Kyoto market mechanisms. This research aimed to estimate the benefits related Econometric estimates based on panel data suggest to Lake Sevan's recreational and nonuse values by considerable substitution possibilities between emis- measuring Armenians' total willingness to pay to prevent sions. fuels, labor, and capital in electric power genera- further degradation of the lake. It also sought to improve tion. In the short run, with fixed stocks of emission the understanding of the diaspora's willingness to pay for permits and capital, changes in prices of low-sulfur fuel environmental amenities in their country of origin. And have the largest effects on factor substitution. While it sought to provide new insights into the contingent prices of emission permits are significant, relative fuel valuation methodology by further developing the prices in the short run are a more important determinant stochastic contingent valuation approach and comparing of factor substitution than are changes in permit prices. different formats for eliciting value (open-ended, close- As stocks of capital and permits adjust in the long run, ended, likelihood) and different survey modes (mail relative fuel prices continue to be the predominant force surveys, in-person interviews)-and thus to provide inducing factor substitution. better tools for conducting contingent valuationi studies The results also clearly demonstrate that an uncer- in both industrial and developing countries. tainty prcmium exists that justifies holding stocks of The project conducted mail surveys in Armenia, permits even in the presence of sizable user costs. Prices France (Paris), and the UTnited States, and in-person for permits induce factor substitution that improves the interviews in Armenia. Two different commodities were environment. the objects of valuation: the prevention of a further Although the findings suggest a short-run positive elas- lowering of Lake Sevan's level, and the raising of its ticity betwveen emissions and permit stocks, this effect is small level by 3 meters. Respondents received a thorough and insignificant. Thus fears that a large initial allocation of description of the predicted consequences of these permits may lead to higher emissions may be unfounded. actions-as well as of no action-for fisheries, biodiver- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- sity, the landscape, and energy and irrigation. Open- opment-Donald Larson (dlarson@worldbank.org). ended, close-ended, and likelihood questions were used, Environment 57 and the answers compared. All respondents were asked success story clouded by serious human health and envi- questions relating to their current and future recreational ronmental damage caused by chemical pesticides. Use uses of the lake as well as questions designed to better of chemical pesticides more than doubled in the past understand their responses. decade, and examples of human pesticide poisonings and The results show that households in Armenia are environmental damage abound. willing to pay about $1.40 a month on average, or 1.4 The results suggest widespread pesticide use in the percent of their incomes, to prevent a further decline in major agricultural regions in the central part of southern water level. Armenians living in France and the United Brazil. The incidence of pesticide use is higher in munic- States are willing to donate about $160 per household to ipalities with high incomes, high education levels, large maintain the current water level. Contrary to research farms, and a high prevalence of sharecropping. Tlo the findings in the United States, this study finds higher extent that cross-sectional results can be extrapolatcd to willingness to pay with mail surveys than with personal time series, the results indicate that the continuation of interviews. trends toward commercialized agriculture and consoli- The research results have been presented at a number dated landholdings and away from family farming will of international workshops, including the Second World further encourage chemical pesticide use. Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists. Still, the main message is a hopeful one. Tl he results Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- suggest that pesticide use in Brazil is heavily skewed ture and Environment-Hua Wang (hwangl@ toward a few cash crops for export: soybeans, sugarcane, worldbank.org), Maureen Cropper, Ben6it Laplante, cotton, fruits, and tobacco. Thus targeting interventions Craig Meisner, Xun Wu, Wenhua Di, and Yanghong Jin. to a few crops should be a promising strategy for slow- ing the growth in pesticide use in Brazil. Pesticide Use in Brazil The project transferred the models and databases it produced, including an algorithm for estimating pesticide Most environmentalists agree that liberalization of agri- use intensities, to Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e cultural trade is likely to bring about big growth in the Estatistica through a series of staff training sessions. use of chemical pesticides in developing countries- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- along with associated human health hazards and envi- ture and Environment-Susmita Dasgupta (sdasgupta@ ronmental degradation. But empirical evidence on this worldbank.org) and Craig NMeisner. With Nlandu issue is inadequate, owing to a dearth of reliable data on Mamingi, University of West Indies, Barbados, Rosane pesticide use in developing countries. de Andrade Memoria Moreno, Instituto Brasileiro de This research analyzed the use of chemical pesti- Geografia e Estatistica; and Guilherme Soria Bastos cides in Brazil in the 1990s, a decade of trade liberaliza- Filho, Instituto Brasileiro de Economia. Instituto tion. The research, probably the first systematic analysis Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica provided data from of trends in pesticide use in Brazil in that period, docu- the 1995/96 Agricultural Census of Brazil. mented the environmental costs and human health haz- ards associated with pesticide use, mapped regional Reports differences, and identified areas and crops where the Dasgupta, Susmita, Nlandu Mamingi. and Craig Mcisncr. 2001. problem is most intense and where monitoring and inter- "Pesticide Use in Brazil in the Era of Agro-Industrialization and vention can yield the greatest social benefits. The Globalization." Environment and Development E(onomics 6(4): methodology included geographic information system 459-82. (GIS) overlays and cross-sectional heteroskedasticity- Meisner, Craig, and Nlandu Mamingi. 1999. "Seeking Solutions adjusted regressions. for Agro-Chemical Pollution: Evidence from Brazil." Paper Drawing on a wide range of data, the study found that presented at American Agricultural Economics Association the remarkable growth in Brazil's agricultural trade is a International and Industry Conference on Agroindustrialization. 58 Environment Globalization, and International Development, Nashville. Public Disclosure of Industrial Pollution in China August 6-7. China is experimenting with public disclosure of indus- Pollution from Chemical Use trial pollution as a way to induce industries to reduce pol- in Agriculture luting emissions. This study, designed to inform China's State Environmental Protection Agency and the inter- Indiscriminate use and inappropriate handling of national community about the benefits and costs of the chemical pesticides in agriculture have led to serious pilot disclosure program, is analyzing the effect of dis- human health and environmental problems in many closure on emissions and the cost associated with the pilot developing countries. Despite the severity of these program. The research is based on econometric analyses effects, however, information on these issues remains of data from surveys of firms, plant managers, and local largely anecdotal. government agencies. Through empirical research in Bangladesh, this The results will be widely distributed in China as project aims to contribute to a more systematic well as in other countries, where it is expected that they assessment of the risks relating to pesticide use in will be used in deciding whether, and in what form, to developing countries. The research is undertaking a adopt disclosure as a regulatory policy. In response to thorough analysis of the risks associated with chemical widespread interest, informational presentations were pesticides and their delivery system; the availability of made to policymakers in China in November 2003. information on risks, safe handling practices, and safer Responsibility: Development Research Group. Infrastrmc- alternatives to chemical pesticides; the dynamics and ture and Environment-David Wheeler (dwheelerl@ determinants of farmers' choices; their perception of the worldbank.org) and Hua Wang. With Jinnan Wang and risks associated with pesticide use; and gaps in knowl- Dong Cao, Chinese Research Academy of Environ- edge about appropriate application and related mental Sciences, Beijing; and Genfa Lu and Yuan Wang, externalities. Nanjing University, School of the Environment. The analysis is based on primary data collected from pesticide traders and users in Bangladesh as well as Report secondary data on active ingredients in pesticides and on Wang, Hua, Jun Bi, David Wheeler, Jinnan Wang, Dong Cao pesticide intoxications. The methodology includes Genfa Lu, and Yuan Wang. 2002. "Environmental Performance geographic information system (GIS) overlays and cross- Rating and Disclosure: China's Green-Watch Program." Policy sectional heteroskedasticity-adjusted regressions. Research Working Paper 2889. World Bank, Development The findings will have immediate applicability, Research Group, WAashington, D.C. particularly for the government of Bangladesh. The research will provide a comprehensive view of Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions occupational exposure to pesticides; perceptions of risk among wholesalers, retailers, and users; their knowledge In most industrial countries the mortality benefits of and use of safe handling practices; and the potential environmental programs accrue primarily to older peo- for safer alternatives. The results will also contribute ple. In the case of air pollution controls the agc distrib- to World Bank operations in rural and agricultural ution of statistical lives saved parallels the age distribution development in Bangladesh. of deaths, implying that 75 percent of people saved are Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- over 65 years old. Yet the most common method of valu- ture and Environment-Susmita Dasgupta (sdasgupta@ ing these risk reductions is to use compensating wage dif- worldbank.org) and Craig Nleisner; and Development ferentials from the labor market. Policy Group-Mainul Huq. With Nlandu Nlamingi, To remedy this difficulty, this study has developed a University of West Indies, Barbados. survey that asks people ages 40-75 what they would pay Environment 59 to reduce their risk of dying. Specifically, it asks respon- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- dents what they would pay for a drug (not covered by ture and Environment-Maureen Cropper (mcropper@ health insurance) that, if taken for the next 10 years, worldbank.org). With Anna Alberini, University of NIary- would reduce their chances of dying over this period by land; Ronald Giocree and Bernard O'Brien, MlcMaster a stated amount. This question is preceded by exercises University, Ottawa; Alan Krupnick, Resources for the to familiarize respondents with the concept of risk of Future, Washington, D.C.; and Nathalic Simon, U.S. dying and with their own baseline risk of dying over the Environmental Protection Agency. The National Sci- next 10 years. Also preceding it is a section discussing ence Foundation (United States), the U.S. Environ- measures that people ages 40-75 commonly undertake mental Protection Agency, and Resources for the Future to prolong their lives (such as cancer screening tests and contributed funding for the research. Health Canada drug therapy for high cholesterol or high blood pres- provided funding for administering the Canadian survey. sure) and the quantitative risk reductions that such mea- sures provide. Reports Results from Canada and the United States suggest Alberini, Anna, Maureen Cropper, Alan Krulpnick, and Nathalic that the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of dying Simon. Forthcoming. "LDoes the V'alue of a Statistical Life Vary decreases only slightly with age and is unaffected by with Agc and Health Status? Evidence from the U.S. and current health status. Estimates of the value of a statis- Canada." Journal of EnvironmentalEconomics andl Management. tical life are slightly lower than those obtained in the labor Krupnick, Alan, Nlaurccn Cropper, Anna Alberini, Nathalic Simon, market literature. Bernard O'Brien, Ronald Goerce, and NMartin Heintzelman. The results of the research were cited by the U.S. Office 2002. "Age, Health, and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality of NIanagement and Budget in formulating guidelines for Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Res- cost-benefit analyses of health and safety regulations. idents." Journal of Risk and lncertrainty 24(2): 161-86. 60 Environment Infrastructure and Urban Development Connecting Cities with Macroeconomic Concerns: Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, l Trban The Missing Link Cluster Sector tJnit-Nlila Freire (mfreire@Cvorldbank.org). With Mlario Polese and Pamela Echeverria, Institut National Taking private firms as the primary actors in urban de la Recherche ScientifiqICe, lontreal; Alvaro Ramalho Jr., economies, this research project examined the relation- Fundac,o Joao Pinheiro, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Rosendo ship between cities and national economic development Pujol, Programa de Desarrollo l rbano Sostenible (Produs), and the implications of this relationship for public pol- University of Costa Rica; Mario Lungo, Oficina de Planifi- icy, especially that relating to poverty reduction. Studies caci6n de la Area Mletropolitana de San Salvador, El Salvador; have shown that the way in which cities are structured, and Salvador Perez-Nlendoza, Benemerita UTniversidad governed, and managed has an impact on economic wel- Auton6ma de Puebla, Nlexico. fare levels. In particular, lack of adequate urban services affects the incentives for private investment and employ- Reports ment creation. This study estimated the cost and forgone Freire, Nlila, and Mario Pol&se. with Pamcla Echeverria. 2003. (Con- revenue associated with failures to provide essential necting Cities w,ith Varcroegonomic (oncerns: he Jllissing I,ink- urban services and the effect on economic activity, exports, Do l.ora/ Public Servues JlIatter A Ca(se S'tudy oJ 'iFe Cities. and employment creation. And it identified ways to help NMontreal: Institot National de la Recherche Scientifique: and local authorities pay attention to those cases. Washington, D.C.: WVorld Bank. The study was conducted by five regional research Lungo, Mlario, and A. Abrcgo. 2003. `Scrriciios urbanos deficientes centers in five cities: Belo Horizonte (Brazil), Nlontreal en San Salvador? JTn obstaculo para la instalaci6n dc nuevas (Canada), Puebla t N\,L,.,Pu San Jose (Costa Rica), and empresas?" Oficina de Planificaci6n de la Arca Nletropolitana San Salvador (El Salvador). Each center surveyed 50-60 de San Salvador, El Salvador. firms in selected sectors to investigate the costs associ- Perez-Mendoza, Salvador, and E Aguilar Cruz. 2003. "Servicios ated with failure to provide adequate urban public goods publicos, infraestrrctura y marco regulador en el costo de las (including safety, regulations, property rights, and spe- empresas del Nestido v alimentos. El caso de la ciudade de cific transport conditions) as well as mixed public-private Puebla (Mlexico)." Benemerita Itni\ ersidad Auton6rua de Puebla. goods (such as water and solid waste management). After Mlexico. the surveys were implemented, the project organized Pujol, Rosendo. 2003. "Importancia de los biencs publicos para la focus groups to provide additional information and assem- industria alimenticia y textil: el caso dc San Josc Costa Rica." bled the final database. Programa de Desarrollo tJrbano Sostenible (Produs), UIniver- Results of the analysis show that such factors as safety, sity of Costa Rica, San Jose. urban violence, and corruption consistently affect the pro- Ramalho, Alvaro, Jr. 2003. "Investigaci6ncs de campo de Belo ductivity of firms in the sample. Horizonte-Brazil. Industria del vcstuario productivo de iThe results are being disseminated through several confecci6nes." FundacaoJoao Pinhciro, Belo Horizonte. Brazil. regional seminars organized with the partner research cen- ters. In addition, the project is producing tool kits to Economic and Engineering Evaluation help local authorities and WAorld Bank urban staffimprove of Alternative Strategies for Managing urban development strategies, measure the effect of Sedimentation in Storage Reservoirs urban development and improvement activities, and better identify and deal with urban poverty and the This research project developed an approach to assist investment climate in large cities. water rcsource managers in devising strategies for 61 sustainable use of storage reservoirs by addressing the Development Department-Ariel Dinar. With Farhed problem of sedimentation management. The approach Shah and Shigekatzu Kawashima, University of Con- includes a mathematical optimization model that can necticut; George Annandale and Tamara Butler-Johndrow, be used to determine the engineering and economic Engineering and Hydrosystems; Atila Bilgi, Hallibur- feasibility of sustainable reservoir management. ton KBR; Rodney White and Edmund Atkinson, The study found that traditional practice in design- HR Wallingford, UTnited Kingdom; Hideki Otsuki, ing dam and reservoir projects needed to be reconsidered. NEWJEC, Japan; Dale Whittington, UTniversity of North Traditional practice is based on a "design life," which Carolina at Chapel Hill; John Nestler, U.S. Army Engi- assumes that water resource projects recover the project neering Research and Development Center; Khalid investment over their life through the benefits they pro- Mahmood, George Washington University; Gian Paolo duce. This approach does not consider how to deal with di Silvio, University of Padova; Thomas Haglund, San projects at the end of their design life, instead assuming Marino Associates; and Eaten Saihi, Golder Associates. that future generations will deal with problems with The Water Resources Environment 'echnology Center, reservoir sedimentation and abandonment. Japan; and the World Bank-Netherlands Water Part- The study recommends a "life cycle management" nership Program contributed funding for the research. approach, aimed at designing and managing water The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers contributed staff resource infrastructure for perpetual use. Alternatively, time. if it is known in advance that a project cannot be man- aged sustainably, a retirement fund should be set up. Reports Incorporating the salvage value of water resource infra- Kawashima, Shigekatzu, 'ramara Butler-Johndrow, George Annan- structure and performing economic optimization into dale, and Farhed Shah. 2003. Reservoir Conservation: Economic perpetuity makes it possible to determine the economic and Engineering Evaluation of Alternative StrategiesforManaging feasibility of sustainable use. Sedimentation in Storage Reservoirs. Vol. 2, RESCONAlodel and As the application of the reservoir conservation User.4anual. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. (RESCON) concept develops, it could influence the Palmieri, Alessandro, Farhed Shah, Georgc Annandale, and Ariel way policymakers and engineers approach dam design. Dinar. 2003. Reservoir Conservation: Economic and Engineering It could also introduce the concept of intergenerational Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for lManaging Sedimentation in equity and promote establishment of retirement funds. Storage Reservoirs. Vol. 1, The RESCON Approach. Washington, RESCON components are already being considered or D.C.: World Bank. included in several World Bank operations. Policymakers in several developing countries were Emergence from Subsistence: Infrastructure, involved during the implementation of the project and Location, and Development in Nepal in sharing the results after its completion, including Kenya (Tana and Ahti River Development Agency and Intuitively, the success of such projects as roads, irriga- the city of Nairobi), Morocco (Direction Gen6rale de tion projects, fertilizer distribution programs, and small Hydraulique), and Sri Lanka (Mahaweli Authority). In business assistance schemes would seem to depend crit- addition, results were discussed in 23 international gath- ically on where they are located. But research has shed erings in both developing and industrial countries little light on the effect of location on economic outcomes. and with World Bank staff at meetings and during This research aims to begin filling that gap by studying operational missions. the relationships among infrastructure, geographic loca- Responsibility: Environmentally and Socially Sustainable tion, and economic development in Nepal-a particularly Development Vice Presidency, Quality Assurance and suitable place to study spatial specialization because of Compliance-Alessandro Palmieri (apalmieri@worldbank its extreme diversity in accessibility and proximity to .org) and Catherine Golitzen; and Agriculture and Rural urban centers. 62 Infrastructure ind Urban Development To study how proximity to towns and cities affects or engage in household chores, while rural women work households' participation in labor and output markets and within and outside the household at the same time. their allocation of land, the research uses a modified von This research implies that better infrastructure will Thunen model of specialization. The econometric esti- dramatically change not only the specialization pattern mation takes a nonparametric approach that allows for a but also women's role in the workforce. The effects on flexible relationship between household decisions and the specialization pattern will be magnified because of proximity to cities of different sizes. the agglomeration effects that work through markets The first stage of the research combines household rather than within sectors. data from the 1995/96 Nepal Living Standards Survey The results, though promising, are based on cross- with geographic information system data on travel time sectional analysis, in which the geographic location of to major cities, and uses urban population data from the households is partly endogenous. To account for 1991 population census. Estimation based on a cross- individual-specific fixed effects and the endogeneity of section of 3,300 households reveals a strong spatial divi- road placement, the second stage of research will use data sion of labor. Nonfarm employment is heavily concen- from the 2003/04 Nepal Living Standards Survey, which trated in and around cities (up to four hours of travel time), will provide information on how urbanization and the while agricultural wage employment dominates villages construction and upgrading of roads since 1995 have located farther away (three to eight hours). Isolated affected market participation and geographic patterns of villages (more than eight hours from the nearest city) are specialization. The research will also investigate how essentially self-subsistent in both farm and nonfarm prod- liberalization of trade with India has affected border ucts. Vegetable and cereal production for sale takes place trade and the spatial division of labor within Nepal. near urban centers, while oilseed and other commercial The research results should help in identifying suit- crops are more important at intermediate distances. able location strategies for projects. Since the size and These findings are consistent with the von Thunen accessibility of the market have a significant influence model of concentric specialization and also show the on the types of rural diversification observed, the results importance of city size. The research also finds signifi- suggest that these factors should be taken into account cant border effects: proximity to Indian towns does not in deciding the location of infrastructure and rural devel- have the same effect on local specialization as proxim- opment projects. ity to Nepalese towns. Findings have been presented to World Bank staff in The research uses the 1999 Labor Force Survey data- the South Asia Region and at development conferences covering 14,355 households in 719 villages across 73 and incorporated into economic and sector work on trade districts-to study the pattern of specialization at the level and competitiveness in Nepal. of individuals and villages rather than households. The Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- econometric estimation, based on a simple theoretical opment-Forhad Shilpi (fshilpi@worldbank.org). With model of specialization in the presence of increasing NMarcel Fafchamps, Oxford University. The Danish, returns and agglomeration effects, reveals that villages Japanese, and Swedish Consultant Trust Funds have in and near cities have more diversified and market- contributed funding for the research. oriented activities-implying the existence of external- ities that are harnessed through markets. The agglom- Reports eration effects appear to be much smaller within Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi. 2003. "'I'he Spatial Divi- sectors-except in manufacturing, where proximity to sion of Labor in Nepal." Journal of Development Studies 39(6): cities is associated with larger firm size and more diver- 23-66. sified employment structures. In addition, evidence . 2003. "Subjective Well-Being, Isolation, and Rivalry" shows that urban women specialize more than rural World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, women. Urban women either work in regular paid jobs D.C. lnfrastructure and Urban Development 63 - Forthcoming. "Cities and Specialization: Evidence from traveled, as do city shape, road density, and (in rail cities) South Asia." Economic Journal. annual rail miles supplied. The elasticity of vehicle miles traveled with respect to each variable is small. But chang- The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure ingseveralmeasuresofurbanformsimultaneouslycansig- on Travel Demand nificantly reduce annual vehicle miles traveled. For example, moving the sample households from a city with the This research aims to quantify the effects of urban sprawl characteristics of Atlanta to a city with those of Boston and availability of public transport on the travel demand would reduce annual vehicle miles traveled by 25 percent. (annual miles driven and choice of transport mode for Results have been presented at seminars at the commuting) of U.S. households. A presumption exists National Bureau of Economic Research, at annual meet- that decentralizing jobs and housing greatly increases ings of the American Economic Association, and at travel demand. But attempts to measure this effect have Columbia University and the universities of California, been hampered by the use of city-level data on travel, Colorado (Boulder), Illinois, and Texas (Austin). which is determined simultaneously with urban spatial Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- structure. To overcome this problem, this study matches ture and Environment-NMaureen Cropper (mcropper@ city-level measures of sprawl and transit supply, which worldbank.org) and Zmarak Shalizi. are exogenous to individual households, with household- level data on annual miles driven and principal mode of Report commuting. Bento, Antonio NI., Mlaureen Cropper, Ahmed Nlushfiq Nlobarak, The study first constructs measures that capture dif- and Katja Vinha. 2003. "The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure ferent aspects of the spatial configuration of cities and on Travel Demand in the tUTnited States." Policy Research are exogenous to individual households, including a Working Paper 3007. World Bank, D)evelopment Research measure of compactness (a spatial Gini coefficient of Group, Washington, D.C. residential sprawl), a measure of jobs-housing balance, and a measure of city shape. To describe the transit net- Information, Knowledge, and Capacity Building work, the study measures the supply of public transit (bus for Effective Urban Strategies: Information-Based and rail miles supplied) and road density. Instruments for Urban Management The study then merges its measures of urban spatial structure, computed for the 114 largest U.S. metropoli- Decisionmakers in urban areas increasingly are becom- tan areas in 1990, with the 1990 National Personal Trans- ing responsible for designing policies and programs to portation Survey. It uses the resulting data set of around improve the quality of life of urban residents. To help 9,000 households to estimate equations for annual improve the efficacy of such policies and programs, this vehicle miles traveled and choice of transport mode for project has initiated research and analytic work to develop commuting. This yields estimates of the elasticity of detailed information systems within cities for identify- travel demand with respect to population and employ- ing, evaluating, and prioritizing issues relating to urban ment sprawl and characteristics of the transport system, management, urban productivity, and urban poverty. controlling for such relevant household characteristics The underlying premise is that public disclosure of cred- as income, education, and household size and ible information can offset weak institutions: public dis- composition. semination of data-by encouraging transparency, The study finds that lower road density, higher popu- accountability, and participation in decisionmaking- lation centrality, and higher rail miles supplied signifi- can improve the effectiveness of public programs and the cantly reduce the probability of driving to work in U.S. cities. quality of urban management. Population centrality and jobs-housing balance have a Focusing on India, the project has initiated collabo- significant effect on annual household vehicle miles rative efforts between the World Bank and local 64 Infrastrurture and Urban Development governments, research institutions, the private sector, Lall, Somik V 2003. "Property Taxes and Local Government and nongovernmental organizations to encourage the Finances in India." World Bank, Development Research Group, collection and use of spatially detailed data and related Washington, D.C. analytic methods for urban planning and policy. Large- Lall, Somik V., Uwe Deichmann, Mattias K. A. Lundberg, and Naz- sample, georeferenced household surveys have been mul Chaudhury. 2002. "Tenure, Diversity, and Commitment: administered in Bangalore, Bhopal, Jaipur, and Pune to Community Participation for UJrban Service Provision." Policy capture heterogeneity within these cities in living stan- Research Working Paper 2862. World Bank, Development dards, service delivery, and resource mobilization. Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also forthcoming in Once the data are collected, validated, and analyzed, Journal of Development Studies.) the project will undertake efforts to train local govern- ment counterparts in using the data in economic and spa- Information Technology and Development tial analysis, build capacity for using and sharing spatial data for urban management, and provide training in con- This research is looking at the impact of information and ducting surveys to monitor service delivery and quality communications technology on poverty in developing of life. The data will be made publicly available to countries, particularly in rural areas. It will assess both researchers once the results have been shared with the the impact of policy reforms relating to such technology partner city governments. and the effect of the development of information and Government officials and researchers have been involved communications infrastructure. from the outset in designing and implementing the project, The study includes both a macroeconomic and a forming a national steering committee to ensure that the microeconomic component. The macroeconomic com- research is useful for policy analysis and decisionmaking. ponent will use econometric analysis of cross-country data And coordination with World Bank operations staff aims to to assess the impact of different policies on the diffusion ensure its utility for lending and policy dialogue. of information and communications technology in devel- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infra- oping countries, focusing on access for poor people. structure and Environment-Zmarak Shalizi (zshalizi@ Using nationwide data on information and commu- worldbank.org), Somik V Lall, and Uwe Deichmann. With nications infrastructure and village-level survey results, Pulin Nayak; Atul Sarma; and the Society for Development the microeconomic component will assess the impact of Studies, India. The U.K. Department for International change in policies and infrastructure on the socioeconomic Development is contributing funding for the research. conditions of poor people in rural Bangladesh and Guatemala. Reports The study is now constructing supporting databases. Deichmann, l lwe, and Somik V Lall. 2003. "Are You Satisfied? Cit- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- izen Feedback and Delivery of UTrban Services." Policy Research ture and Environment-David Wheeler (dwheelerl@ Working Paper 3070. World Bank, Devclopment Research worldbank.org), Susmita Dasgupta, Robert Schware, and Group. NVashington, D.C. Charles Kenny. With Kiran Pandey, Craig Meisner, and Deichmann, tUwe, Somik 1v Lall, Ajay Suri, and Pragya Rajoria. Mainul Huq. 2003. "Information-Based Instruments for Improved Llrban Mianagement." Policy Research Working Paper 3002. World Infrastructure Logistics and the Costs Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. of Doing Business: Physical, Policy, Kapoor, Nludit, Somik V' Lall, Nlattias K. A. Lundberg, and Zmarak and Institutional Barriers Shalizi. Forthcoming. "Location and Welfare in Cities: Impacts of Policy Interventions on the UTrban Poor." Policy Research As production, marketing, and distribution activities Working Paper. Wvorld Bank, Development Research Group, have become decentralized worldwide, logistics have Washington, D.C. come to play a critical role in defining, disaggregating, I nfrostructure and Urban Development 65 and directing economic activities and flows of goods and nologies over the next five years. The fund would services. Improvements in logistics services lower the cost primarily finance modest cash grants per connection to of goods delivered by reducing institutional inefficien- ensure affordability and attract rural businesses to sell, cies such as customs delays-and thus expanding install, and service connections. Financing for the grants market access, private investment opportunities, and would be raised as new and additional funding from employment. donors and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Most developing countries confront serious inade- The target fund size is $150 million, implying per- quacies in logistics services, however. Beyond typical inef- connection subsidies in the range of $100-150, depend- ficiencies in physical infrastructure, such as inefficient ing on assumptions about how much of the fund would ports and poorly linked transport networks, they also be used for administration and other purposes. The unit face significant policy and institutional barriers. These grant is based nominally on small solar home systems. The impediments not only directly increase the cost of deliv- Million Connections Fund would operate through exist- ering goods to markets but also seriously affect quality, ing institutions, achieving "scale-up" by replicating reliability, and delivery time, undermining countries' ongoing projects. positions in highly competitive international markets. This research aims to determine the viability and This research project will assess the effects of logis- attractiveness of the Mvillion Connections Fund from tics costs, time, and timeliness on the trade performance the point of view of World Bank financing and the need of developing countries. Since these factors cannot be to build photovoltaic markets in developing countries. considered in isolation from others that affect trade flows, It is also examining the economic rationale for energy the research must proceed by testing hypotheses within subsidies for the poor through a literature review. a comprehensive framework for international trade analy- The project is reviewing and analyzing existing pro- sis. The analytic approach is based on a multistage model jects and other efforts in the off-grid sector and esti- grounded in discrete choice theory and incorporating mating their likely outcomes, evaluating the potential for the effect of logistics costs and time. The model will be scale-up in various countries and assessing the priority extended to address timeliness. Like the gravity model, accorded to the off-grid sector by World Bank client the discrete choice framework can incorporate comple- countries, and developing a method for estimating eco- mentarity, transferability, and intervening opportunity nomically justified levels of support for off-grid systems. effects. The project is also holding discussions within the World The project is now collecting data from several coun- Bank Group's energy practice on the approach to scale- tries in Africa, East Asia, and Latin America. Once the up, how it fits in with other rural energy initiatives, and project is complete, the data will be shared through the how to manage it within a broader rural energy context. World Bank's Private Sector Development Web site. The research has found no clear argument for estab- And where appropriate and possible, country-level data lishing a new and separate fund to do what the GEF is will be shared in policy discussions with countries. already doing. Indeed, the proposed fund is much more Responsibility: Investment Climate Unit, World Bank-Uma narrowly focused than GEF grant cofinancing for renew- Subramanian (usubramanian@worldbank.org). With able energy. And it provides no new value added to the William P. Anderson and T R. Lakshmanan, Boston World Bank Group's search for efficient, effective means University. of broadening access to off-grid renewable energy ser- vices. The World Bank Group's portfolio of off-grid Million Connections Fund renewable energy projects already targets some 1.5 million connections. Shell has proposed a Million Connections Fund aimed Findings have been disseminated through presenta- at achieving an additional one million connections to tions to World Bank senior management, the GEF, and basic electricity service using renewable energy tech- Shell management. 66 Infrastructure and Urban Development Responsibility: Energy and Water Department, Energy Unit- was the subject of a panel discussion at the Second World Richard Jeremy Spencer (rspencer@worldbank.org). Forum on Energy Regulation in Rome in October 2003. Responsibility: Energy and Water Department, Energy Unit- Reports Bernard Tenenbaum (btenenbaum@worldbank.org). International ResoLurces Group. 2003. "Evaluating the Potential for Scale-[Jp of Off-Grid Renewable Power." Washington, Report D.C. Bakovic, Tonci, Bernard Tenenbaum, and Fiona Woolf. 2003. Reg- Teplitz-Sembitzkv, Witold. 2003. "Economically justified Levels ulation by Contract: A New IVay to Privatize Electriiy Distribution? of Support for Off-Grid Electricity Supply." World Bank, Energy World Bank Working Paper 14. Washington, D.C. and WVater Department, Washington, D.C. Draft. Regulatory Review of Power Purchase Regulation by Contract for Private Electricity Distribution Companies Power purchase costs constitute the single largest cost for electricity distribution companies. But the pass-through This research project examined international experience of power purchase costs for distribution companies is a in developing successful and unsuccessful regulatory frequently ignored regulatory issue in industrial and systems for private sector participation. In the light of the developing countries alike. Pass-through rules tend to be literature on the theory and practice of economic regula- especially important for developing countries, because tion, the research analyzed case studies of the experience incumbent utilities are likely to be the sole supplier for of developing country regulators in establishing new most retail customers for the foreseeable future. Elec- regulatory systems for privatizing electricity distribution. tricity regulators therefore need to establish rules that The analysis revealed the following key lessons relat- create incentives for distribution companies to purchase ing to regulation by contract: efficiently while allowing them to recover the costs of * Independence is not enough. their purchases. * The regulatory contract must be a political This study compares and contrasts several pass- contract. through methodologies used in both industrial and devel- * Regulation by contract as against regulation by oping countries, identifying lessons and best practices. commission is a false dichotomy. Its review suggests that the best methods for establish- * Regulation by contract is a new name for an old ing pass-through benchmarks rely on market prices and paradigm. competitive procurement. But when power sectors are * Electricity consumers cannot be the forgotten third at an early stage of reform, market prices may be unavail- party to a regulatory contract. able or distorted by market power. Based on an exami- * Investors must have confidence that the contract will nation of these cases, the study proposes an evolutionary be enforced fairly and efficiently. path for pass-through regulation. This regulatory path is * The heart of a regulatory contract is a prespecified, meant to be indicative rather than prescriptive. performance-based, multiyear tariff setting system. Ultimately, the best methodology depends on a country's * A regulatory contract is sustainable only if the under- objectives and the power sector's structure, implying a lying economics are viable. need for case-by-case design of pass-through rules. * A multiyear tariff system can be put into operation Responsibility: Energy and Water Department, Energy Unit- even in the absence of high-quality data. Luiz Maurer (Imaurer@worldbank.org). * Regulation by contract should be reserved for private distribution companies. Report The findings have been discussed in World Bank Arizu, Beatriz, Luiz Maurer, and Bernard Tenenbaum. 2004. "Pass operational missions in India and Lesotho. The research Through of Power Purchase Costs: Regulatory Challenges and lnfrastructure and Urban Development 67 International Practices." Energy and Mlining Sector Board Dis- In addition, the project will study eight eases in depth cussion Paper 10. World Bank, Energy and Mlining Sector through field visits and interviews: Alto Tiete (Brazil), Board, Washington, D.C. Brantas (Indonesia), Fraser (Canada), Guadalquivir (Spain), Jaguaribe (Brazil), Murray Darling (Australia), River Basin Management at the Lowest Tarcoles (Costa Rica), and Warta (Poland). Appropriate Level Initial results point to the importance of political economy in implementing river basin management strate- An internationally accepted principle of river basin man- gies, the long-term nature of such projects, the need for agement calls for decentralizing decisionmaking to the champions, and the risk of setbacks occurring when Iowest appropriate level. But experience with World political conditions change. They also appear to show that Bank-financed projects around the world suggests that the political implications of decentralization are often while translating this concept into laws and regulations underestimated and that decentralization cannot be is relatively easy, its actual application often encounters addressed as a technical issue alone. obstacles because of the varying interests of stakeholder Results will be disseminated through publications, groups. As a result, projects based on this principle may a country workshop, XVorld Bank workshops and fail to realize potential benefits. seminars, and consultation with staff of the World Until now, however, there has been no comprehen- Bank and the International Network of Basin sive review of the performance of river basin organiza- Organizations. tions, especially of the political economy issues involved. Responsibility: South Asia Region, Environment and Because centralized basin management usually fails, Social Sector Unit-Karin Erika Kemper (kkemper@ decentralized management with water user associations worldbank.org); and Agriculture and Rural Develop- is generally assumed to be the answer. This research will ment Department-Ariel Dinar. With William Blomquist shed analytic light on that assumption and on whether and Anjali Bhat, Indiana University; Maureen Ballestero; there is a need to adjtist the decentralization policies that Rosa Maria Formiga; William Fru; Consuelo Giansante, have been promoted. The findings should be important University of Seville; Brian Haisman; David NMarshall, to WVorld Bank clients, given the major institutional Fraser Basin Council, Canada; Jyothsna Mody; Kikkeri changes implied by decentralizing river basin manage- Ramu; and Andrzej 'Ionderski. ment to the lowest possible level. The study will also develop a methodology for ana- Rural Roads: Welfare Impact Evaluation lyzing local settings, to help design processes for decen- tralizing river basin management, as well as for analyzing Rural roads are often seen as key to raising living stan- the outcomes of WVorld Bank projects that include such dards in poor rural areas. Yet despite the consensus on decentralization. their importance and much anecdotal evidence, there is The sttidv is surveying river basin organizations to surprisingly little hard evidence on the size and nature gather the data needed to test hypotheses developed from of their benefits. a theoretical model. An econometric analysis of 80-100 This study aims to assess the impact of rural roads on observations, using variotis functional forms and model poverty and contribute to policy discussions of how best specifications, will provide quantitative estimates of the to allocate scarcc public resources. The study is con- importance of different economic, institutional, political, ducting an empirical investigation in Vietnam-where the and locational characteristics to success in decentraliza- World Bank is financing and helping to implement a tion. Survcys have been sent to around 130 mcmbers of large-scale rural road project for poverty reduction-to the International Network of Basin Organizations, and find out how the determinants of living standards change statistical analysis will start once a satisfactory sample has over time in communes that have road projects compared been obtained. with ones that do not. 68 Infrastructure and Urban Development The analysis is based on panel data from surveys- . 2002. "Choosing Rural Road Investments to Help Reduce a baseline survey of a random sample of 100 project Povertv." lior/dDeve/oprnent 30(4): 575-89. communes and 100 nonproject communes in 1997, van de Walle, Iominique, and L)orothyjcan Cratty. 2002. "Impact followed by subsequcnt rounds of data collection in Evaluation ofa Rural Road Rchabilitation Project in Vietnam." 1999, 2001, and 2003. Other surveys xverc also conducted WVorld Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C. in each round. In each sampled commune a questionnaire was administered to 15 randomly sampled households. Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth A district-lcvcl survey was implcmented to help put the commune-level data in context, and an extensive While the death rate due to traffic fatalities has fallen in province-levcl database was creatcd to help undcrstand most high-income countries over the past 25 years, it has the selection of provinces for the project. Because the risen in developing countries. This is a result of the impact of a road project varies with the size of the change effect of economic development on the motorization resulting from the project and the method of project rate (the ratio of vehicles to population) and on fatalities implementation, a project-lcvel database for each of the per vehicle. To better understand these effects requires project areas surveyed is also being constructed. studying how rapidly the motorization rate increases as 'I'hc analysis is using the bascline data to model the economies grow and how rapidly fatalities per vehicle selection of project sites, wvith a focus on the underlying decline. social, economic, and political economy processes. It is This study examines the etfect of income growth on using the later rounds to understand gains measurable the death rate due to traffic fatalities-as well as on at the commllune level, conditional on selection. Several fatalities per vehicle and on the motorization rate-using approaches have been tricd, including double differ- panel data from 88 countries for 1963-99. Estimating fixed encing with matclhing methods and a modificd random effects models, the study projects traffic fatalities and the effects model allowing for cndogeneitv of program place- stock of motor vehicles to 2020. inent. Nlatching methods are used to select ideal controls The relationship between fatalities per vehicle and per from among the 100 sampled nonprojcct communes, capita income at first increases with per capita income, and outcomes in project communes are then compared reaches a peak, and then declines. 'T'he reason is that at with those ftound in the control communes before and low income levels the increase in motor vehicles outpaces after the introduction of the road projects. Outcome the decline in fatalities per motor vehicle. At higher indicators include commune-level agricultural yields, income levels the reverse occurs. The income level at income diversification, employment opportunities, avail- which per capita traffic fatalities peaks is around $8,600 ability of goods, land use and distribution, services and (in 1985 international dollars)-within the range at which facilities, and asset wealth and distribution. other externalities, such as air and water pollution, have Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- been found to peak. vices-I)ominiquc v an de Walle (dvandewalle@ Projections of traffic fatalities suggest that the global worldbank.org) and Dorothyjean Cratty. With Vu Tuan road death toll will grow by around 66 percent between Anh, Economics Institite, lFlanoi. 2000 and 2020. But the rate of change will vary in dif- ferent parts of the world: fatalities will decline by around Reports 28 percent in high-income countries but increase by van de WNallel, lDomini(luC. 1999. "Assessing the Poverty Impact of almost 92 percent in China and 147 percent in India. And Rural Road Projects." \World Bank. I)evelopment Research while the fatality rate will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 Group, Washington, D).C. persons in high-income countries by 2020, it will rise to --. 2((000(. "Choosing Rural Road In\vcstmcnts to Help Reduice around 2 per 10,000 in developing countrics. Ploverrv." IPolicv Research WVorking Papcr 2458. World Bank, This research has provided input to the World Health )cvclopment Rsearch Group, Washington,. ).C. Organization's IWorld Health Report 2004' (Geneva, Infrastructure ond Urban Development 69 forthcoming), which focuses on road traffic injuries. sample. With the help of statistical models, it will then Results also have been presented at seminars at the Uni- use the sample results to estimate preliminary measures versity of Maryland and Resources for the Future and at of urban land consumption for all cities with popula- a transport conference in Hungary. tions in 2000 of more than 100,000, so as to establish the Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure present global norms of urban land consumption for and Environment-NIaureen Cropper (mcropper@ different types of cities. worldbank.org) and Zmarak Shalizi. Using the census data, the study will construct sta- tistical models to examine the relationships between Report different dimensions and patterns of urban land con- Kopits, Elizabeth, and Maureen Cropper. 2003. "Traffic Fatalities sumption and four key dimensions of urban poverty- and Economic Growth." Policy Research Working Paper 3035. overcrowding, access to piped water, access to sewerage, World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. and access to home ownership. Given the norms established by the statistical inves- Urban Growth Management Initiative tigation, the project will identify a dozen cities in the sample that are clear outliers, consuming much larger or According to the most recent United Nations projec- smaller quantities of urban land and generating signifi- tions, the urban population of the developing countries, cantly more or less compact patterns of urban expansion. now growing by 2.3 percent annually, will double in 30 It will study these cities in greater detail to determine years-from around 2 billion in 2000 to nearly 4 billion what factors and, most important, what public policies in 2030. Based on current settlement practices, that lead to their deviating from the norms. implies a doubling of built-up areas in developing coun- The project will also identify three cities-one each try cities on average and, accounting for per capita income in Africa, Asia, and Latin America-that are preparing for growth, even a quadrupling in some cases. growth and assist them in developing projects for this pur- This research seeks to expand our understanding of pose. (Tegucigalpa, Honduras, has been identified as the dimensions and patterns of urban land consumption the city in Latin America.) -an understanding that is essential if governments are Finally, the project will create a forum for bringing to pursue the most efficient, equitable, and sustainable together the mayors of the dozen outlier cities and the urban development policies and to prepare adequately three cities preparing for urban growth to discuss for urban expansion. measures needed to prepare for the doubling in size of The project has drawn a stratified random sample of developing country cities. 120 cities from the universe of 2,719 world cities with This research effort will provide new quantitative populations in 2000 of more than 100,000, selecting cities measures, new data, and new explanations for variables in nine geographic regions, four city size groups, and four that have not been systematically measured on a global national per capita income groups. This sample was scale over time-information needed to obtain a global drawn from the United Nations Global Urban Observa- perspective on urban expansion and to design a coordi- tory sample of 335 cities. For each city in the sample the nated strategy for managing urban expansion in devel- project will obtain Landsat data and spatially disaggre- oping countries. gated demographic data from the U.S. Geological Sur- Responsibility: ransport and Urban Development Department, vey and the U.S. Census Bureau and other census sources Urban Unit-Robert M. Buckley (rbuckley@worldbank for two recent periods, approximately a decade apart. .org). With Shlomo Angel, New York University and Prince- UTsing these data, the project will define a set of mea- ton University; Stephen Sheppard, Williams College; and sures of urban land consumption for all the cities in the Daniel Civco, University of Connecticut. 70 Infrastructure and Urban Development Agriculture and Rural Development Access to Land in Latin America Nicaragua and provided input into land administration and the Caribbean projects in Honduras and Nicaragua and a learning and innovation loan in Mexico. And its findings influenced Many Central American countries have recently liber- a rural diversification project and peace and development alized their agricultural sector, initiated programs to project in Colombia. improve the security of property rights, and eliminated Results were presented at a Latin American workshop restrictions on land transactions-all in the hope of organized by the Mexican secretary of agricultural reform improving the functioning of land and credit markets and and the World Bank, an international conference in increasing access to land by the poor. This research Mexico (November 2002), and national dissemination project investigates whether the reforms have fulfilled workshops in Mexico (March 2003), Nicaragua (May these expectations-and if not, why not. The research 2003), and Colombia (October 2003). A Central Ameri- is based on econometric analysis of panel data from can workshop in Nicaragua is under preparation, in household surveys in Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and collaboration with the European Union and U.S. Agency Nicaragua. for International Development. Results for Mexico show that its ejido reforms have Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- improved the performance of land markets, leading to opment-Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank greater allocative efficiency. The reforms have also had .org). With Bradford L. Barham and Michael R. a major noneconomic impact by clearing up legal disputes Carter, University of Wisconsin at Madison; and Juan and eliminating one of the main sources of political Sebastian Chamorro, Office of the President, Nicaragua. patronage in the countryside. In Nicaragua policy reform and land titling have sig- Reports nificantly increased productivity (land values for titled Barham, Bradford L., Michael R. Carter, and Klaus Deininger. 2003. plots are 30 percent higher than those for untitled ones) "Making Land Marker Liberalization Work for the Welfare of and somewhat improved the functioning of land markets. the Rural Poor in Honduras." University of Wisconsin, Depart- But because of the financial crisis, the reforms did not ment of Applied Economics, Madison. lead to a perceptible increase in access to credit. More- Carter, Michael R., and Juan Sebastian Chamorro. "Impacto de over, markets remain very thin, implying that reaping the proyectos de legalizaci6n de la propiedad en Nicaragua: Informe full benefits of the reforms will require complementary final." measures (such as in financial infrastructure and Deininger, Klaus, and Juan Sebastian Chamorro. Forthcoming. marketing). "Investment and Equity Effects of Land Regularization: The In Honduras reforms of land markets have improved Case of Nicaragua." AgriculturalEconomics. their functioning. But because of credit market imper- Deininger, Klaus, Fabrizio Bresciani, and Isabel Lavadenz. "Mex- fections, the impact of these reforms has been less than ico's Second Agrarian Reform: Implementation and Impact." would have been expected. That suggests that addi- Deininger, Klaus, Eduardo Zegarra, and Isabel Lavadenz. 2003. tional measures may be called for-such as measures to "Determinants and Impacts of Rural Land Market Activity: Evi- improve the functioning of credit markets and thereby dence from Nicaragua." World Development 31(8): 1385-404. help rural households take advantage of the opportuni- Ointo, Pedro, Klaus Deininger. and Benjamin Davis. 2000. "Land ties opened by the liberalization of land markets. Market Liberalization and the Access to Land by the Rural Poor: The research has formed the basis for World Bank eco- Panel Data Evidence of the Impact of the Mexican Ejido nomic and sector work in Colombia, Mexico, and Reform." http://www.wisc.edu/ltc/live/basca0002a.pdf. 71 Commodity Marketing Systems The analysis finds that investment is lower on leased plots than on owned plots cultivated by the same house- Over the past dozen years the governments of many hold. This result survives even after taking into account developing countries have fundamentally changed poli- potential adverse selection in the leasing market. The cies designed to support and manage commodity mar- study also finds that greater security of tenure increases kets. Through case studies and literature reviews, this investment on leased plots. Differences in tenure secu- research examines such reforms to extract the main rity across tenants are largely the result of differences in lessons. landlords' willingness to commit to long-term contracts. The research finds that approaches designed to sta- The findings suggest that there is scope for effective bilize and support prices were unsustainable and gave tenancy reform in rural Pakistan. Legislation binding way, often during periods of economic crisis. When insti- landlords to long-term contracts with their tenants, to the tutions charged with stabilizing prices were dismantled, extent that it could be enforced, would encourage the ten- care often was not given to finding ways to provide ants to undertake certain kinds of investment. appropriate regulation and market support. Moreover, the The project has contributed to the World Bank's range of market reforms and the consequences of reform poverty assessment in Pakistan and to a factor market differed across countries and especially across commod- study being undertaken in the South Asia Region's Rural ity subsectors. Development Sector Unit. The research contributes to the debate about how best The findings were presented in late 2002 in seminars to manage commodity markets. at the University of North Carolina, George Washington Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- University, and Cornell University; at the Winter Econo- opment-Donald Larson (dlarson@worldbank.org). metric Society Meeting in Washington, D.C.; and at the South Asia Econometric Society Meeting in Lahore. Reports Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- Akiyama, Takamasa, John Baffes, Donald Larson, and Panos opment-Hanan Jacoby (hjacoby@worldbank.org). Varangis. 2003. '"Commodity NMarket Reform in Africa: Some Recent Experience." Economic Systems 27(1): 83-115. Report eds. 2000. Commodity MarketReforms:Lessonsof Tw,oDerades. Jacoby, Hanan, and Ghazala Nlansuri. 2002. "Incomplete Con- Washington, D).C.: World Bank. tracts and Investment: A Study of Land Tenancy in Pakistan." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Inequality and Investment: Land Tenure and Soil Degradation in the Indus Basin Land Institutions and Land Policy Landownership in Pakistan is extremely unequal, lead- This study followed on a March 2001 consultative meet- ing to very active land leasing markets. This study inves- ing on land policy issues attended by representatives of tigates the incentive problems that arise from land leasing a wide range of donor and civil society organizations. arrangements, analyzing the impact of the structure of Participants reached broad consensus on a number of land lease contracts on productivity and on investment general land policy issues but also highlighted the need in soil quality. The analysis uses data from the 2001 Pak- for more background work and for incorporating regional istan Rural Household Survey, which includes detailed experience in particular areas. information on input use, plot-level production, and the The study summarized existing operational and terms of tenancy contracts. To examine the incentive to research experience relating to land policy, conducted new invest in land, the analysis focuses on the application of research in areas where significant gaps existed (partic- farmyard manure, which has productivity effects over ularly on land taxation, the operation of land markets, and multiple seasons. the impact of land conflict), and held regional work- 72 Agriculture and Rural Development shops to obtain feedback, disseminate results, and dis- case studies prepared for regional workshops in a special cuss how these can inform policy. The findings are issue of its journal Land Reform. And a set of the best reported in a World Bank Policy Research Report, Land papers presented at the Eastern European workshop is Policiesfor GrowZth and Povertv Reduction (Klaus Deininger, being published in a special issue of the Quarterlv Jour- New York: Oxford University Press, 2003). nal of International Agriculture. Key findings include these: Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- * Land policy has important repercussions not only for opment-Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank equity and efficiency but also for governance and fiscal .org) and Gershon Feder. sustainability of local governments. * Tenurc security is crucial for achieving higher levels Reports of investment, and there are a wide range of mechanisms, Deininger, Klaus. 2002. "Agrarian Reforms in Eastern European besides traditional titling, that can help promote it. Countries: Lessons from International Experience." Journal of * Outcomes from land sales markets depend more on InternationalDevelopment 14(7): 987-1003. the functioning of financial markets. - . 2003. "Land Markets in Developing and 'l'ransition * Land rental markets contribute to both greater Economies: Impact of Liberalization and Implications for equity and greater efficiency. Future Reform." American Journal of Agrirultural Economics * Governments can contribute to improved land use 85(5): 1217-22. through a wide range of policy measures, but they need - . 2003. Land Policiesfor Growth and Poverty Reduction. World to introduce such measures in the context of a coherent Bank Policy Research Report. New York: Oxford Universitv overall policy. Press. (Also available at http://econ.worldbank.org/prr/ The preparation process for the report prompted the land-policy/.) European Union to create a land task force and to pre- Deininger, Klaus, and Raffaella Castagnini. 2003. "Incidence and pare a set of land policy guidelines that draw heavily on Impact of Land Conflict in tlganda." Policy Research WVork- the report. Through this task force, the European Union ing Paper 3248. World Bank, Development Research Group, is supporting in-country dissemination of the report in Washington, D.C. an effort to improve the integration of land issues into Deininger, Klaus, and Songqing jin. 2002. "Land Rental Nlarkets country strategies and Poverty Reduction Strategy as an Alternative to Government Reallocation? Equity and Papers. Efficiency Considerations in the Chinese Land Tenure System." The report forms the basis for a four-day distance Policy Research Working Paper 2930. World Bank, Develop- learning course organized by the World Bank Institute ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. and the Development Economics Senior Vice Presi- . 2003. "The Impact of Property Rights on Households' dency with support from other donors. This course, Investment, Risk Coping, and Policy Preferences in China." adapted to local conditions, has been conducted in South Economic Development and Cultural Change 51(4): 34 i -67. Asia, three times in Africa (in East Africa, southern .2003. "LandSalesand Rental Marketsin'fransition: Evidence Africa, and West Africa), and in Central America. from Rural Vietnam." Policy Research Working Paper 3013. World Launched in Paris in June 2003, the report was pre- Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. sented at several national and regional events relating to Deininger, Klaus. and Paul NMpuga. 2003. "Land Nlarkets in land policy issues, including in Colombia, Mali, the Uganda: Incidence, Impact, and Evolution OverTime." World Philippincs, Spain, and Switzerland (for heads of East- Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ern European land registries). Deininger, Klaus, Songqing Jin. Berhanu Adcnew, Samucl Gebre- It is expected that Chinese, French, Portuguese, Selassie. and Berhanu Nega. 2003. "Tenure Security and Land- Russian, and Spanish translations of the report will also Related Investment: Evidence from Ethiopia." Policy Research be published. In addition, the Food and Agriculture Working Paper 2991. World Bank, Development Research Organization has agreed to publish 15 of the country Group, Washington, D.C. Agritulture and Rural Development 73 Land Rental Markets in Eastern Europe Macro-Micro Linkages of Irrigation Water Management The World Bank Policy Research Report Land Policiesfor Growth and Poverty Reduction (Klaus Deininger, New Where irrigated agriculture remains an important sector York: Oxford University Press, 2003) has sparked inter- in terms of resource use, policy interventions aimed at est in many countries in addressing land policy issues. improving water use in the sector will have direct and While Eastern European countries have made significant indirect effects on the rest of the economy. Irrigation (though variable) progress in establishing more secure policy reform has direct effects on the farm firm, these land rights, formal and informal barriers to the operation effects have an impact on the broader economy, and the of land rental markets persist in many of them. This adjustments in the economy then feed back to affect the research aims to characterize such barriers, assess their farm firm. impact, and identify policies that can help to overcome This study traces direct and indirect effects of policy them. reform. The analytic framework relies in part on a com- The research is based on empirical analysis of putable general equilibrium (CGE) model aligned with data from farm household surveys conducted by a built-in farm-level model. Using these components, the the University of Leuven under the auspices of the study has developed a tractable empirical model of the European Union's Phare project between 1998 and 2002, macro-micro linkage and applied it to data from Morocco complemented by data from Living Standards Mea- to test the influence of microeconomic on macroeco- surement Study (LSMS) surveys for the same countries. nomic policies-and the influence of macroeconomic The analysis finds that policy choices relating to on microeconomic policies. privatization continue to affect the functioning of rural The study has conducted two sets of policy analysis and urban land markets, though other factors also are to show how the macro-micro linkage works. The first increasingly playing a role. The functioning of markets, set centers on macroeconomic policies, with trade reform in turn, affects the productivity of land use and house- illustrating the links. The second set deals with micro- hold welfare. economic policies, with water reform chosen to The research is expected to improve the under- illustrate the links. standing of the role of land and other factor markets in Trade reform removing protection causes all endoge- the region and to lead to ideas that may be incorporated nous variables to change, shifting the economy to a new into policies and projects. It will also generate a survey equilibrium-and benefiting the country as a whole. module that will help better capture land policy issues The trade reform affects the shadow prices of water in these countries. (that is, the productivity of the allocation of water), low- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- ering the shadow price of water allocated to protected opment-Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank crops. .org). With Sara Savastano, University of Rome; and The direct effect of water reform at the farm level in Alexander Sarris, University of Athens and Food and Agri- Morocco was to reduce the water allocated to soft wheat culture Organization. production by 36.6 percent, and that for sugarcane production by 3.7 percent. The water released was then Report allocated to other crops. Deininger, Klaus, Alexander Sarris, and Sara Savastano. Forthcom- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- ing. "Rural Land Markets in Transition: Evidence from Six opment-Ariel Dinar (adinar@worldbank.org). Eastern European Countries." Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture. 74 Agriculture and Rural Development Mauritania: Technology Fosters Tradition- mining rural nonfarm growth. The provision of infra- Preserving the Environment through structure is perhaps the most important lever available Grassroots Law Making to policymakers aiming to promote the rural nonfarm economy. But while many studies in the literature doc- This research project will investigate, through fieldwork ument a correlation between nonfarm activities and in Mauritania, whether rural farmers and herders in mar- access to infrastructure, there is much less certainty ginally productive areas follow strong traditional rules on about the causal relationship between provision of infra- land use in lieu of modern state regulations. The analytic structure and subsequent nonfarm growth. Moreover, approach will rely on self-assessment and documentation much remains to be learned about the relative importance -on the sand, on paper, on a drawing board, and in an of different types of infrastructure-such as roads, power, electronic form conveyable by the Internet-of land and telecommunications. rights and use patterns in the area the villagers and A second part of the research seeks to shed further herders consider "theirs." empirical light on underexplored questions about the role The findings are expected to influence the reform of of education and credit: How do education and rural land use processes, the making of law, and the under- credit influence nonfarm entrepreneurial behavior standing of local empowerment. 'rhe findings should also in rural areas? And how might education and credit poli- contribute to World Bank work in designing community- cies be devised to effectively promote nonfarm rural driven development approaches and legal reform initia- investment? tives. And they are expected to help empower local The last part of the research examines the complex populations to enforce their traditional land use rights and wide-ranging mechanisms through which the non- against the interests of the central government and donors. farm sector can influence poverty and inequality. It is Results will be disseminated locally, regionally, nation- quite possible, for example, for the poor to benefit more ally, and internationally. In 2004 presentations are planned indirectly-through links between the nonfarm and farm at the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Conference sectors-than directly-through employment in non- in Alexandria, Egypt, and the conference of the Inter- farm activities. While empirical work tracing these links national Association for the Study of Common Property is ongoing, more research is needed to provide further in Oaxaca, Mexico. detail and to document the diversity of experience. Details on the project can be found on the Web at The studies cover a range of developing countries- http://www.cbnrm.net/webhosting/tft/. Bangladesh, Guatemala, India, Morocco, Nicaragua, and Responsibility: Legal Department, Africa-Hans W. Peru. Several of the studies involve new data collection, Wabnitz (hwabnitz@worldbank.org). With Lars Soeftes- and several others involve combining multiple data sources tad, Supras Consulting, Norway; and Christian in new ways. As a result, findings remain tentative. Contardo. Responsibility: Development Research Group. Poverty Team-Peter Lanjouw (planjouw@worldbank.org) and Nonfarm Rural Development Yoko Kijima; Human Development Network, Social Protection Team-Renos Vakis; and World Bank Insti- This project comprises a series of studies on key ques- tute, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management tions relating to the nonfarm economy that are not yet Division-Shahidur Khandker. With Leonardo Corral and fully resolved or have not yet received adequate atten- Paul Winters, Inter-American Development Bank; Javier tion in the literature. It gives particular attention to the Escobal, Group for the Analysis of Development knowledge gaps directly relevant to the design of policy (GRADE), Peru; Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford UIniver- interventions. sity; Andrew Foster, Brown University; Thomas Reardon, A big part of the work is aimed at contributing to the Michigan State University; and Mark Rosenzweig, empirical evidence on the role of infrastructure in deter- Harvard UJniversity. Agriculture and Rural Development 75 Reports The rcsearch provides a deeper understanding of the Escobal, Javier. 2003. "Enhancing Incomc Opportunities for the ways in which central policy initiatives affect welfare Rural Poor: 'Ihe Benefits of Rural Roads." when key aspects of policy implementation are decen- Foster, Andrew, and NMark Rosenzweig. 2002. "Constructing a tralized. It also provides evidence on the performance of Consistent Village-Level 'lime-Series on Infrastructure, Agri- nonmarket allocation, offering lessons for nonmarket cultural, and Rural Nonagricultural Groxvth: India, 1971-2000." privatization schemes. Lanjouw, Peter, and Renos Vakis. 2002. "New Options for the Rural Results have been presented at a World Bank semi- Poor? Insights from the Nonagricultural Sector in Guatemala." nar (April 2001), a conference on Political Economy and Development at Yale tIniversitv (2001), a seminar at the Nonmarket Land Allocation in Vietnam National Economics University and Institute of Social Studies in Hanoi (February 2002), the Northeastern This project studied the political economy of land allo- Universities D)evelopmcnt Consortium Conference at cation during major policy reforms in Vietnam-reforms Williams Collcge (October 2002). the M\ acArthur Foun- that effectively privatized most farmland in the country. dation Conference on Inequalitv at the MIassachusetts It aimed to improve the understanding of how the cen- Institute of ''echnology (2003), and a DELTA-INRA tral government's initial intervention was reflected in what seminar in Paris (October 2003). Presentations have also happened on the ground, recognizing that this also been made at Boston LTniversity, Mlichigan State depended on the objectives and constraints facing other Utniversity, the LTniversity of Nlassachusetts, and the political actors. It also aimed to identify the welfare Ulniversity of Mlichigan. effects at the household level, both initially and over time, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- recognizing that land allocation is endogenous. vices-Dominiclue van de Walle (dvandewalle@ The study developed a theoretical model and worldbank.org), and PovertyTeam-MIartin Ravallion. tested it using regression analysis. It also developed a dynamic model incorporating a distribution dependence Reports in the growth process arising from credit market Ravallion, Miartin, and 1)ominliquc van dc Wallc. 2001. "Breaking failures. tlp the Collective Farm: eclfarc Outcomes of \ictnam's Nlas- The research found that the initial assignment of six-c Land lrivatization." PolicN Rcscarch N7orkinglapcr2710. land use rights in Vietnam achieved a more equitable WTorld Bank, f)cvelopment Rescarch Group, WN/ashington, outcome than would be expected from a consumption- D.C. efficient allocation, entailing an equity-efficiency trade- . 2003. "Land Allocation in Vietnam's Agrarian 'Itransition." off that favored the poorest households. It found no lPolicv Rcscarch WVorking Paper 2951. World Bank, I)evelop- evidence of widespread local capture. 'This, together mcnt Rescarch Group. WVashington, D.C. with favorable initial conditions-primarily an equitable . 2003. "Land Allocation in \Victnam's Agrarian 'Iransition: distribution of education-explains the overall equi- Part I-Brcaking l-p the Collcctivc Farms." Working Paper table outcomes at decollectivization. EWP03/03. Institutc for liscal Studies. Centre for the Evalu- After decollectivization, land reallocations responded ation of Development Policies, London. positively but slowly to the inefficiencies of the initial . 2003. "Land Allocation in Vietnam's Agrarian ''ransition: land allocation. In the aggregate about a third of the Part 2-Introduicing a Land Niarkct." Working Paper EW10O3/04. initial gap between the actual and the efficient allocation Instituite for Fiscal Studies. C.entre for the Evaluation of Dezvel- was eliminated within five years. The slowness of the opmcnt Policies, London. adjustment appears to be inherent to the workings of the . Forthcoming. "Breaking ltp the Collective Farm: Welfare market process in Vietnam rather than duc to counter- OLutcomes of Vietnam's Mlassi c l.and lprivatization." EIoaom- vailing nonmarket forces. Indeed, such forces tend to aid ics of ir'insiftion. adjustments toward greater efficiency. 76 Agriculture and Rural Development Sending Farmers Back to School: to farmer, and the limited uptake of formal training An Econometric Evaluation of the responsibilities by farmer-trainers, the programs' cost Farmer Field School Extension Approach per trained farmer (including overhead costs and tech- nical assistance) was very high-in the range of $45 or Many agricultural training and extension programs seek more. Such costs raise the risk of financial unsustainabilitv to enhance farmers' knowledge of improved cultivation if farmer field school training is to be applied on a national practices and their ability to make ecology-conscious scale. choices. One training approach attracting attention and Results suggest that as long as the costs arc as high as support in recent years is the farmer field school. This in the past decade, the economic v iability of the farmer approach emphasizes participatory methods and under- field school approach is questionablc. 'I'lhesc restilts have standing of the plant-pest ecology. One of its key aims important implications, since the approach is gaining is to reduce chemical pesticide use by promoting inte- popularity with external donors and the World Bank has grated pest management. But the approach is costly, and funded a number of farmcr field school activities. 'T'he there is merit in evaluating its effectiveness. study indicates that the current dcsign of such activities This research used three country studies to investi- could be ineffective in conveying and diffusing knowl- gate the effectiveness of farmer field schools in improv- edge of integrated crop and pest management on a large ing the knowledge of farmers, boosting yields, and scale. NMoreover, the approach is likely to be fiscally reducing pesticide use. It also assessed the fiscal unsustainable. Thus launching numerous small pilot sustainability and economic viability of the approach. projects, as is widely done, is an ineffective use of scarce For Indonesia household panel data were available for external funds, since the pilot projects arc unlikely to be 1991 and 1999, allowing an econometric analysis using scaled up to national programs and the lessons from the a difference-in-differences approach. For the Philip- pilots are unlikely to be applicable to larger-scale projects. pines and Peru only cross-sectional household data (for Nlodifications are needed that retain somc of the pos- 1999-2000) were available. But because the Philippine itive features of farmcr field school training (such as its sample was drawn from an area where the farmer field participatory nature) while increasing the likclihood of school program had bcen operating for some years, recall farmer-to-farmer diffusion and reducing the costs. questions were administered, providing insights into Prioritizing the curriculum, simplifying the knowledge changes over time. In Peru, where a pilot school had just content, and reducing the nLmber of training scssions been implemented, a control sample was established could cut the cost, improve the transfer of information. using propensity scores, and impacts were simulated and allow greater coverage of the farming population. using pretraining differentials among farmers with Findings have been presented at a joint WN'orld different levels of knowledge. Bank-International Food Policy Research InstitUte wvork- All threc country studies showed that trained farmers' shop on extension approaches in WN'ashington, D.C. knowledge of improved farming practices increased. But (November 2002), a seminar at the 1l niversity of Cali- results from Indonesia and the Philippines showed that fornia at Berkeley (Mlarch 2003), a Wl'orld B1ank seminar knowledge did not diffuse from trained farmers to other (June 2003), a conference of the International Associa- members of their community, apparently because the tion of Agricultural Economists in DLurban, South Africa information is complex and not amenable to diffusion (August 2003), a seminar at the University of Florida at through informal communication. The study in Indone- Gainesville (October 2003), and a seminar at the Inter- sia concluded that there were no significant effects on national Nlaize and Wheat Improvement Center yield and pesticide use attributable to the farmer field (CINIMYT) in Mexico (October 2003). school. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- Analysis in Indonesia and the Philippines concluded opment-Gershon Feder (gfeder@vorldbank.org); WVorld that given the limited diffusion of knowledge from farmer Bank Institute, Evaluation Group-Jaime Quizon; and Agriculture and Rural Development 77 South Asia Region, New Delhi Office-Rinku Murgai. nism for providing low-cost, effective risk management for With Agnes Rola, University of the Philippines at Los coping with weather events. This type of insurance avoids Banios; Oscar Ortiz, International Potato Center, Lima, most of the moral hazard and adverse selection problems Peru; Alain de Janvry, Erin Godtland, and Elizabeth that plague crop insurance programs. And it can potentially Sadoulet, University of California at Berkeley; and Hania lower lending risks for rural financial institutions. Rahma. Another part of the research develops basic informa- tion on climate, bringing together information from Reports ground weather stations and satellite data. A third part Anderson, Jock R., and Gershon Feder. Forthcoming. "Agricultural incorporates information on climate in econometric analy- Extension: Good Intentions and Harsh Realities." lWorld Bank ses of productivity and technology choices. Research Observer. The study finds that when long time series of weather Feder, Gershon, Rinku Murgai, and Jaime Quizon. 2004. "Send- data are available, most technical issues in writing insur- ing Farmers Back to School: The Impact of Farmer Field ance contracts covering weather-related risks can be solved. Schools in Indonesia." Review of Agricultural Economics 26(1): More difficult is a lack of institutions that back insurance 45-62. markets generally. The study also finds that weather data - "The Acquisition and Diffusion of Knowledge: The have been undervalued in many developing countries. Case of Pest Management Training in Farmer Field Schools, Such data are collected and often saved, but are less often Indonesia." organized and maintained for research. Satellite informa- Godtland, Erin, Elisabeth Sadoulet, Alain de Janvry, Rinku Mur- tion can be used in limited ways. Evidence shows that gai, and Oscar Ortiz. "Testing the Impact of Farmer Field climate information is an important determinant of pro- Schools on Knowledge: An Empirical Study of Potato Farmers ductivity differences and technology choice. in the Peruvian Andes." The research results have been discussed at workshops Quizon, Jaime, Gershon Feder, and Rinku Murgai. 2001. "Fiscal in Washington, D.C., and in developing countries. Results Sustainability of Agricultural Extension: The Case of the for Ecuador appear in the 2003 poverty assessment for Farmer Field School Extension Approach." Journal of Interna- that country. tional Agricultural and Extension Education 8(1): 13-24. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- Rola, Agnes, S. Jamias, and Jaime Quizon. 2002. "Do Farmer opment-Donald F. Larson (dlarson@worldbank.org); Field School Graduates Retain and Share What They Learn? Agricultural and Rural Development Department- An Investigation in Iloilo, Philippines." JournalofInternational Panos Varangis; and Latin America and the Caribbean Agricultural and Extension Education 9(1): 65-76. Region, Rural Development Family-Paul Siegel. With Jerry R. Skees, University of Kentucky. Weather-Based Index Insurance Reports Rural people in developing countries must often cope Larson, Donald F., and Frank Plessmann. 2002. "Do Farmers with weather events that have a catastrophic impact on Choose to Be Inefficient? Evidence from Bicol, Philippines." agricultural production and rural incomes. This research Policy Research Working Paper 2787. World Bank, Develop- project explores the relationships between climate, risk, ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. and productivity-related choices in developing coun- Skees, Jerry R., Panos Varangis, Donald F Larson, and Paul Siegel. tries with the aim of contributing to the development of 2002. "Can Financial Nlarkets Be TIapped to Help Poor Peo- better policies and instruments for managing such pleCopewith WeatherRisks?" PolicyResearch WorkingPaper weather-related risks. 2812. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, One part of the research uses case studies in Ethiopia, D.C. (Also forthcoming in Stefan Dercon, cd., Insurance against Mexico, Morocco, Nicaragua, and Tunisia to assess the Poverty, Helsinki: World Institute for Development Econom- feasibility of area-based index insurance as a mecha- ics Research.) 78 Agriculture and Rural Development Macroeconomics and Growth China's Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability: closed one. And they show that capital taxation is the most A Computable Equilibrium Model inefficient method for financing government debt of Overlapping Generations because it reduces output more than the other methods. Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and China's public debt has risen rapidly in recent years. Yet Economic Management Division-Yan Wang (ywang2@ no study has used a rigorous model to analyze the coun- worldbank.org). With Shuanglin Lin, University of try's fiscal sustainability. This research investigates Nebraska; and Fan Zhai, Development Research Cen- China's long-run fiscal sustainability by developing and ter, State Council of China. simulating a computable equilibrium model of overlap- ping generations. Introduced by Paul Samuelson in 1958, Report this widely used model has a solid microeconomic foun- Lin, Shuanglin, Yan Wang, and Fan Zhai. 2004. "China's Expan- dation and is particularly useful in dealing with problems sionary Fiscal Policy in a Computable Overlapping Generations involving intergenerational redistribution. NModel." World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. The research considers the sustainability of deficits by examining the change in the ratio of fiscal debt to GDP The Impact of Fiscal Arrangements on Private and the effects of deficit policies on capital accumulation, Sector Development in the Russian Federation per capita output, and social welfare. It conducts several policy experiments: permanent and temporary increases In modern federations fiscal federalism is meant to serve in debt-financed government spending and permanent two roles. First, local control over revenue collection is and temporary changes in tax rates (for value added, meant to provide a check on the capacity of central labor income, and capital income taxes). authorities to arbitrarily tax local capital. Second, reten- Results show that in a closed economy the spending- tion of taxes raised locally is meant to establish incentives driven government debt will cause private investment for subnational authorities to foster economic growth as and capital stock to decline in both the short and the long a way of promoting local tax bases. In the Russian Fed- run, labor supply to increase in the short run but decrease eration, however, fiscally autonomous regions have often in the long run, output to rise in the short run but fall in resisted market-oriented reforms, the enactment of rules the long run, and welfare to increase for some older gen- protecting private property, and the dismantling of price erations but decline for young generations. controls and barriers to trade. Do fiscal arrangements in In an open economy the spending-driven govern- Russia distort the incentives of local and regional gov- ment debt will cause private investment and capital ernments to support private sector development? stock to decline in both the short and the long run with This study tests the hypothesis that fiscal incentives all debt financing methods except labor income taxation, of the Russian regions are an important determinant of labor supply to increase in the short and long run but regional economic performance. Moreover, it seeks to decrease in the medium run, output to rise in the short understand the conditions under which fiscal autonomy and long run but fall in the medium run, and welfare to prompts regional growth and recovery-and the condi- increase for some older generations but decline for young tions under which it has adverse economic effects. It generations. posits that the presence of unearned income streams, par- The results suggest that the expansionary fiscal pol- ticularly revenues from natural resource production or icy is less detrimental in an open economy than in a from budgetary transfers from the central government, 79 has turned regions dependent on these income sources This research is investigating these issues. It first esti- into rentier regions. As a result, governments in these mates the size of physical capital subsidies in a few coun- regions have used local control over revenues and expen- tries, then examines the relationship between these ditures to shelter certain firms (natural resource pro- subsidies and the allocation of public and private invest- ducers or loss-making enterprises) from market forces. ment in physical, human, and natural capital. The research Using new fiscal data from 80 Russian regions for focuses on such countries as Brazil, Chile, and India. 1996-99, the study tests this central hypothesis in both The countries studied have experienced differing single- and simultaneous-equation specifications. The growth rates, varying improvements in human capital, and results indicate that tax retention (as a proxy for fiscal a serious deterioration in natural capital. Some have had autonomy) has had a positive effect on the cumulative a decline in net total wealth per capita, and 9 of 12 coun- output recovery of regions since the break-up of the tries in Latin America a decline in total net wealth. Soviet Union. But it also finds that this effect decreases Argentina, Brazil, and Chile experienced negative growth as rentable income streams to regions increase. in human and environmental assets in 1990-2001. The Findings have been presented at a World Bank imbalance between subsidization of physical capital and seminar. deterioration of human and natural capital is an issue of Responsibility: Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and huge importance, with implications for fiscal deficits Financial Sectors Development Unit-Itzhak Goldberg and national debt. (igoldberg@worldbank.org). The research is expected to aid the World Bank's policy dialogue in many countries and help reshape the Report development strategy toward more equitable and Desai, Raj M., Lev M. Freinkman, and Itzhak Goldberg. 2003. "Fis- sustainable growth. It is also expected to facilitate a shift cal Federalism and Regional Growth: Evidence from the Rus- from the Washington Consensus toward a broader set of sian Federation in the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper policies for better shared development. 3138. World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and Financial Sectors Development Unit, Washington, D.C. Economic Management Division-Yan Wang (ywang2@ worldbank.org); and Latin America and the Caribbean Investment Patterns and the Quality of Growth Region, Brasilia Office-Vinod Thomas. With Ram6n E. L6pez, University of Maryland; Nalin Kishor; Ashoka Earlier research has suggested that long-run growth Guha, Georgetown UJniversity; Milwida M. Guevara; depends not only on the speed of asset accumulation but and Jisoon Lee, Seoul National University. also on the "blend" of at least three key assets: physical capital, human capital, and natural capital. Some asset Reports accumulation blends make significant long-run eco- Gucvara, Nlilwida NI. 2002. "Capital Subsidies and the Quality of nomic growth with equity possible; others are likely to Growth: The Case of the Philippines." World Bank, World lead to long-run economic stagnation along with social Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. inequity and environmental destruction. Economies can Guha, Ashoka. 2001. "The Quality of Growth: An Assessment achieve the "right blend" if savings are allocated to and an Illustrative Case Study of India." World Bank, World investment in the asset among the three that has the high- Bank Institute, Washington. D.C. est social rate of return (net of investment cost) so that Lee, Jisoon. 2001. "Financial Policies and the Quality of Growth in the long run the net social rates of return to investment in South Korea." World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, in each asset are equalized. But market imperfections pre- D.C. vent this efficient allocation. In some cases they have led L6pez, Ram6n E. 2002. "Growth, Social Equity and Natural Cap- to the subsidization of physical capital and under- ital: The Role of Public Subsidies in Latin America." World investment in human and natural capital. Bank, World Bank Institute. Washington, D.C. 80 Matroeconomics and Growth L6pez, Ram6n E., Gustavo Anriquez, and Sumeet Gulati. 2001. economic instability. The design of intergovernmental "The Dynamics of tUnbalanced and Sustainable Growth." resource transfers and the incentives it creates for World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. subnational fiscal policy thus need scrutiny. How can intergovernmental transfers be designed so as to avoid Low Returns to Reforms in the Global Economy unintended or perverse effects on state fiscal behavior? What is the role of political affiliations in determining This research is aimed at contributing to the ongoing transfers and subnational fiscal behavior? Are these effort to increase development effectiveness and under- political effects powerful enough to constrain the stand why economies perform poorly after a round of effectiveness of rules-based designs? reforms such as trade liberalization. In the first phase the This study addressed these policy questions by exam- research is exploring cross-sectional data to find statis- ining the fiscal policies of state governments in India, tical regularities explaining why countries are "trapped" where a rules-based system of transfers has been in place in low-growth equilibriums despite greater trade flows. for the past 50 years. During that period the political envi- The analytic approach involves first building a database ronment has changed drastically, with India moving from that makes it possible to cross-reference the character- one political party dominating the national and state istics of countries that experience low returns to reform, legislatures to unstable coalition politics at the center and then using both cross-sectional and panel regressions to different regional parties controlling the states. The test hypotheses on the reasons for these low returns. resulting political and fiscal variation across states and over The sample is corrected for time lags. time allows rigorous empirical research. The study Early findings show that precisely measuring developed empirically testable hypotheses from the economic reform variables is key in determining the theoretical literature on public finance and political significance of regression coefficients. The outcome of economy, then tested them using regression analysis on reform is not the same as policy action. a panel data set of political and fiscal indicators, compiled In a later phase the study will investigate low returns from different published sources, for 15 major states of to reform through country studies. India in 1972-95. A workshop to discuss the research with academics and The results show that electoral party politics matter policymakers is planned for October 2004. for the regional distribution of public resources and for Responsibility: Development Economics, Office of the Senior fiscal discipline in a federation-and in a way not pre- Vice President and Chief Economist-Luiz Pereira da viously addressed in the literature on fiscal federalism. Silva (Ipereiradasilva@worldbank.org). When a state government is controlled by the political party that also controls the national government, the Report state receives higher than average federal transfers and de Castro, Alexandre Samy, Ian Goldin, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva. has a higher than average fiscal deficit. This pattern is 2002. "Relative Returns to Policy Reform: Evidence from Con- consistent with a model in which decisionmaking author- trolled Cross-Country Regressions." Policy Research Working ity lies with political parties that aim to maximize their Paper 2898. WVorld Bank, Development Economics, Office of the representation in the national legislature. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Contrary to conventional wisdom in India and exist- ing models of political bargaining between the center and The Political Economy of Fiscal provincial governments, the study finds no statistical Decentralization evidence that the design of intergovernmental transfers provides perverse incentives to state governments to Fiscal decentralization raises an important policy run higher deficits. concern-a concern that it might create "soft" budget The findings suggest that formal rules regulating fis- constraints at subnational levels and consequent macro- cal relations in federations will have limited impact if Macroeconomics ond Growth 81 deficits are determined by the nature of electoral tion expands, local authorities need to provide more ser- competition between political parties. The study finds vices with fewer resources from the central government. evidence, however, that delegating certain fiscal Subnational borrowing, leveraging on reliable cash flows policies-such as the setting of public debt ceilings-to and prudent fiscal management, may be an alternative an independent agency makes a difference for the way to fund such investments, especially when the use- distribution of national resource transfers across regional ful life of the service is long (such as schools, roads, and governments. By contrasting the impact of partisan public utilities) and an adequate legal framework is in politics on two types of fiscal transfers to Indian states, place to ensure fiscal and financial stability. it finds that while the transfers determined by political Drawing on the Global Program on Subnational agents are indeed distributed to serve political objectives, Capital Market Development managed by the World having an independent agency distribute the transfers Bank in 1998-2000, along with recent experiences in curbs political influence and is consistent with promot- accessing subnational credit markets, this study exam- ing equity. ined subnational governments as borrowers and the array The results will be presented at a seminar in New of credit markets in which they may operate. Case stud- Delhi for scholars and policymakers working in India. ies documented the recent experience of 18 countries in They also have been disseminated within the World developing markets for subnational borrowers, assessing Bank through seminar presentations; used in a World what has worked and what has not and identifying the Bank Institute course on fiscal decentralization and inter- reasons for the successes and failures. The case studies governmental transfers for World Bank staff; and used in offer lessons about fostering responsible credit market a World Bank Institute learning event for a visiting access within a framework of fiscal and financial delegation from the Finance Commission of India, the discipline. agency with primary responsibility for determining inter- The research was aimed at assisting local govern- governmental transfers in the country. ments in working as strategic partners in developing The panel data used in the analysis are available on and strengthening the capital markets in emerging request. economies. The results provide a simple "blueprint" of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- the major flaws to be avoided and the conditions that need vices-Stuti Khemani (skhemani@worldbank.org). to be present for successful entry into subnational credit markets. Reports Dissemination plans include seminars organized in Khemani, Stuti. 2002. "Federal Politics and Budget Deficits: client countries in collaboration with the World Bank Evidence from the States of India." Policy Research Working Institute. Paper 2915. World Bank, Development Research Group, Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Washington, D.C. Urban Cluster Sector Unit-Mila Freire (mfreire@ - . 2003. "Partisan Politics and Intergovernmental Transfers worldbank.org) and Miguel Valadez. With John Petersen, in India." Policy Research Working Paper 3016. World Bank, George Mason University; and Marcela Huertas, Metrop- Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. olis Consulting. Subnational Capital Markets Report in Theory and Practice Freire, Mila, and John Petersen, with Marcela Huertas and Miguel Valadez, eds. 2004. Subnational Capital Markets in Developing With increasing decentralization, local governments face Countries: From Theory to Practice. New York: Oxford University a growing need to access capital markets. As urbaniza- Press. 82 Macroeconomics and Growth International Economics Accessing International Equity Africa Trade Standards Project Markets This research project examined "behind the border" This study analyzes which firms participate in interna- barriers to trade in Africa, investigating the links between tional markets by issuing depository receipts, cross- standards, regulations, and export success through case listing, or raising new capital in international financial studies in five countries-Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, centers. Through econometric analysis of data for a large South Africa, and Uganda. With a view to promoting sample of firms from 53 countries-capturing both efforts to strengthen the region's export capacity, firms that internationalize and those that list only domes- the project also examined the opportunities and chal- tically-the study compares firms across countries, within lenges facing African firms and farmers in meeting countries, and over time to address three questions: standards. * What are the characteristics of firms that become The research identified standards-related policy, infra- international? structure, and capacity needs in the region, including * What country and firm characteristics determine public and private sector capabilities at the national and the probability of becoming international? sectoral levels. The work also reviewed laws, regula- * And how are firm-specific characteristics affected by tions, institutional capacities, and programs relating to the internationalization? developing, implementing, and enforcing standards. The study finds that firm characteristics-size, growth, Local research teams, working with the World Bank valuation, performance, and foreign activity-are and the African Economic Research Consortium, carried important determinants of accessing international equity out the country and industry assessments, an arrangement markets for firms from industrial countries, but less helping to strengthen research capacity in the region. The so for firms from developing countries. Evidence shows teams drew on existing studies, used firm and industry that, conditional on the country already being interna- surveys to generate new primary data, and incorporated tionalized, firms from developing countries use cross- results from a World Bank survey on technical barriers listing to bond to higher legal and other standards. to trade (this survey included firms active in testing and Listing abroad is associated with an increase in sales certification or in major food, agricultural, and light growth, higher valuation and return on assets, and lower manufacturing industries). In addition, the researchers leverage, though these effects diminish following gathered input from key private and public sector listing. stakeholders through national workshops, focus group Responsibility: Financial Sector Vice Presidency, Financial sessions, and one-on-one interviews. And they obtained Sector Strategy and Policy-Daniela Klingebiel (dklinge- key documents from regulatory officials to gain insights biel@worldbank.org); and Development Research Group, into standard setting processes. Macroeconomics and Growth-Sergio Schmukler. With The case studies led to common findings, including Stijn Claessens, lUniversity of Amsterdam. these: * African exporters face myriad problems relating to Report standards, including a lack of timely and accurate infor- Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio Schmukler. mation, a need to simultaneously meet multiple standards "Accessing International Equity Mlarkets: Which Firms from and regulations, costly and difficult testing and verifica- Which Countries Go Abroad?" tion procedures, and rapidly changing requirements in overseas markets. 83 * For small and medium-size farmers in Africa, stan- Results have been shared through workshops, con- dards impose cost structures and investment require- sultations with key stakeholders and decisionmakers in ments that makc it difficult to access industrial country each of the five countries, and dissemination activities markets. relating to the report produced by the project. In * African firms and farmers are gcnerally "standard addition, seminars for govcrnment and private scctor takers" (as with horticulture in Kenya and fisheries prod- reprcsentatives have been held in Midrand, South Africa ucts in Utganda), which can result in excessive restrictions (June 10, 2003); at the European Policy Center in and lower product prices. Brussels (July 31, 2003); at the U.K. Department for * Foreign lobbying groups and associations can pose International Development in London (August 4, 2003); challenges for African firms. In 2001, for example, human in Accra, Ghana (November 11, 2003); in Nairobi, Kenya rights associations, arguing that Del Monte's operations (November 14,2003); and in Washington, D.C. (Decem- in Kenya failed to apply adequate worker safety and ber 11,2003). Seminars have also been conducted at the environmental health standards, launched a boycott of World Bank. Del Nionte's products in supermarkets in the European The project team has provided analytic and advisory Union. support to World Bank operations, including the Africa * Costs of compliance can be prohibitive for African Trade Facilitation Project, Trade Integration Studies in governments, and foreign direct investment is not Kenya, and the Uganda Private Sector Export Compet- forthcoming. itiveness Project II. * African countries-even middle-income countries Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-John like South Africa-have little capacity to undertake food S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org) and Victor 0. Abi- safety risk assessments, creating potential avenues for ola; and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management trade restrictive practices. Network, International Trade Department-Steve Jaf- * Sanitary and phytosanitary standards and environ- fee. With Andre Jooste, Erik Kruger, and Flip Kotz6, Cen- mental requirements can bc moving targets, often becom- ter for International Agricultural Mlarketing and ing more stringent once producers achieve compliance. Development, South Africa; J. Adeboye Adeyemo and M\loreover, awareness of food safety and sanitary Abiodun S. Bankole, UTniversity of Ibadan, Nigeria; and phvtosanitary standards is generally low, and the Gabriela Rebello da Silva, Instituto Nacional de Nor- mechanisms for consultations between national author- maliza,co e Qualidade, Mlozambique; Lara da Silva Car- ities in this arca and other stakeholders appear to be rilho, UJniversidade Eduardo Mondlane, Mozambique; inade(quate. Hezron Omare Nyangito, Kenya Institute for Public * In many African countries essential facilities such Policy Research and Analysis; Tom Olielo, Kenya Bureau as testing laboratorics are inadequately staffed and of Standards; David NMagwaro, NMinistry of Trade and scientific equipment is outdated. Nloreover, data are not Industry, Kenya; Nichodemus Rudaheranwa and Fred systematically collcctcd or stored, and local certification Matovu, Makerere University, Uganda; and Willy Musin- agencics lack an international reputation. And this guzi, Uganda National Bureau of Standards. The African situation is worsening in many countries as public Economic Research Consortium contributed staff time spcnding declines. to the research. * Failure to raise standards to international levels will have enormous costs in lost exports for Africa. Report Based on thcse and other findings, the project identi- Wilson, John S., and Victor Abiola, cds. 2003. Standards and fied areas needing priority attention and highlighted Global Trade: A loi-e for Africa. Washington, D.C].: World kcy steps for governments, private organizations, and inter- Bank. national development agencies to strengthen capacity in standards monitoring, certification, and enforcement. 84 Internalononl Economics Does Regionalism Help or Hinder Multilateralism? The Effects of American Depository Receipt Trading on Local Markets 'T'his researclh project will examine the implications of continuing regional trade integration for multilateral This project analyzes how the internationalization of trade liberalization. It will investigate how discriminatory capital markets has affected the domestic stock markets liberalization has affected countries' attitudes toward of developing countries. In particular, it addresses this multilatcral liberalization. It xvill explore differences question: How do firms that participate in international between customs unions and free trade areas, the effi- stock markets affect the trading activity and liquidity of ciency of current World Trade Organization policies on the firms remaining in the domestic market? The the formation of preferential trade arrangements. and the question is important because countries with more devel- empirical adequalcy of existing theoretical analyses of the oped capital markets tend to grow faster and because relationship between regionalism and multilateralism. capital markets help to mobilize savings throughout the It may also explore the implications of the research economy. results for the welfare conse(Luences of regionalism. To study the effects of internationalization, the The study, by improving the understanding of the inter- project assembled trading and liquidity information on action between multilateral and regional integration, more than 3,000 firms across 55 emerging market should help policymakers better manage trade economies for the years 1989-2000. To measure trading liberalization. activity, the study uses turnover (the value of a firm's 'l'o estimate how the formation of regional trade transactions in a market divided by its market capital- arrangements has affected multilateral tariff reduction, ization). 'I'o measure liquidity, it uses an illiquidity index the study is compiling preferential and most-favored- (the ratio of a stock's absolute returns to its value traded). nation tariffs by industry over a number of years for Through regression analysis using annual firm-level countries in these trade arrangements. Preliminary results data, the sttidy finds that as more firms become inter- for Latin America indicate that regionalism has not been national, this lowers the turnover of domestic firms. And a stumbling block to liberalization. it finds that as internationalization rises, the liquidity of The data, including detailed information on the extent domestic firms falls. But what are the mechanisms of trade concessionis and phase-in schedules of prefer- through which internationalization hurts the trading ential trade agreements, will be made available on the activity and liquidity of domestic firms? Web at brip 11 .,1,11 iriIv .i ' research/trade/. 'I'he study identifies two channels through which 'I'he project will result in a policy report explaining internationalization hurts domestic firms: the migration the results in nontcclhnical terms and several academic and spillovers channel and the domestic trade diversion papers, with the main paper including a detailed descrip- channel. Trading migrates to international financial tion of the data, metlhodolog, and results. markets, having negative spillover effects on the trading Dissemination plans include presentations at the and liquidity of domestic firms in domestic markets. WN'orld 'Irade Organization, the Brazilian Economic These spillover results indicate that an individual equity's Association (ANPEC) and Brazilian Econometric (SBE) trading activity and liquidity depend importantly on the (Congress, and the European (;ommission's Directorates market's overall activity and liquidity. Moreover, there General for Development and for External Affairs, and is trade diversion in domestic markets as trading shifts presentations to the group of African, I'acific, and from domestic to international stocks within the local Caribbean countries (in Gihana) and members of the market. Central ELuropean Free Irade Agreement (in Prague). I'he research has provided input into a study on Latin Responsibility: Devclopment Research Group, 'lTrade-Car- American capital markets and the World Bank's Global oline Louise FreLund (cfreund@worldbank.org). With De'elopment PFinance (Washington, D.C., various years). EmanLel Ornelas, I niversity of (Georgia. Findings have been presented at seminars at the International Economics 85 University of Minnesota and the University of Zurich and credit spreads. While global factors still play a greater role at the 2004 annual meeting of the Global Development in foreign direct investment in industrial countries, their Network in New Delhi. They will also be presented at role in developing countries has grown dramatically over a seminar for Latin American policymakers at the Fed- the past 20 years. This development appears to be tightly eral Reserve Bank of Atlanta (jointly organized with the linked to the financial liberalization and opening up of Inter-American Development Bank) and at a Brazilian developing countries in the 1980s and early 1990s. newspaper. Using time-series and cross-country data, the macro- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- economic analysis also examines the effects of the chang- nomics and Growth-Sergio Schmukler (sschmukler@ ing composition of foreign direct investment in worldbank.org) and Latin America and the Caribbean developing countries over the past decade, when merg- Region, Office of the Chief Economist-Juan Carlos ers and acquisitions have grown in importance relative Gozzi Valdez. With Ross Levine, University of Min- to greenfield investments, particularly in the context of nesota; and Tatiana Brandao Didier, NMassachusetts Insti- privatization programs. It finds that an increase in merg- tute of Technology. ers and acquisitions is typically followed by higher green- field investment-so the conclusion of privatization Report programs need not result in a drop in overall foreign Levine, Ross, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2003. "Migration, direct investment. And it finds that the effects of the two Spillovers, and Trade Diversion: The Impact of International- kinds of foreign direct investment on investment and ization on Stock Market Liquidity." Policy Research Working growth are roughly similar qualitatively: both tend to Paper 3046. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- lead domestic investment, and both tend to follow growth. ington, D.C. (Also published as NBER Working Paper 9614, T hese findings suggest that countries' foreign direct Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, investment prospects and macroeconomic benefits are 2003.) not much affected by whether the investments take the form of mergers and acquisitions or new projects. Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, Those prospects depend increasingly on global risk and and Growth return conditions-thus changes in world growth or interest rates can have a powerful effect on foreign direct In recent years foreign direct investment has increasingly investment flows to developing countries. Yet local dominated capital inflows in Latin America, raising new profitability and risk conditions-productivity growth, concerns about its desirability and effects. This study macroeconomic stability, institutional quality-remain examines that recent boom from three perspectives: the robust fundamental attractors of foreign direct invest- macroeconomic dimension, the banking system, and ment even in an increasingly globalized financial corporate sector financing. environment. UJsing data on foreign direct investment inflows and A second analysis assesses the impact of foreign bank their determinants for a large number of industrial and entry on lending practices. Analysis of bank-level credit developing countries over the past three decades, the data for major Latin American economies finds that in macroeconomic analysis assesses the role of global and countries allowing foreign bank participation, small busi- cotntry-specific factors in attracting foreign direct invest- nesses are more likely to obtain credit from foreign banks ment and looks for systematic differences across world when these have a significant local presence. But small regions. It finds robust evidence that the trends in foreign banks lend more to small and medium-size enter- foreign direct investment flows to both industrial and prises than do large ones. Moreover, analysis of firm sur- developing countries in recent years reflect an increas- vey data from a large number of developing countries ing role of factors affecting global financial markets- shows that foreign bank participation improves firms' world interest rates, world growth, term premiums, and access to credit. The survey results confirm that the 86 International Economics benefits of high levels of foreign bank participation do mergers with global exchanges may be necessary to pre- not appear to accrue only to large enterprises. Nonethe- vent an almost sure decline of the local market. This does less, the findings suggest that countries concerned about not mean that there is no role for local exchanges-they foreign banks lending to small businesses should pursue may still play an important part in allowing firms to policies that encourage them to develop a significant access markets for the first time. local presence. The research findings have been disseminated through A third analysis examines the effect of foreign invest- many academic and professional events, including an ment on capital markets. The foreign investment boom invited lecture at Universidad de El Escorial (2001), the in Latin America has been accompanied by delistings of annual meetings of the Latin American and Caribbean stocks and migration from domestic to international Economic Association and the Latin American Econo- capital markets. Using individual firm data for a large metric Society (2002), and a major conference jointly number of countries from 1983 to the present, the analy- organized with the Inter-American Development Bank sis investigates the factors responsible for this process and in Washington, D.C. (October 2002). its consequences for both migrating local companies and Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, those remaining in the local markets. Office of the Chief Economist-Luis Serven (Iserven@ The analysis finds that there are a small number of fun- worldbank.org), and Finance Cluster-Susana M. damental factors that affect in a similar way both the Sanchez; Development Research Group, Macroeco- development of the local market and the degree to which nomics and Growth-Norman Loayza, Sergio Schmuk- countries participate in international markets. As coun- ler, and George R. G. Clarke, and Finance-Maria tries improve their fundamentals, stock exchange Soledad Martinez Peria and Robert Cull; and Pension activity increases, but so does the share of activity Investments Department-Daniela Klingebiel. With taking place abroad. This suggests that the two are com- Rui Albuquerque, University of Rochester; Ross Levine, plementary processes: as better fundamentals allow local University of Minnesota; Cesar Calder6n, Central Bank markets to develop, firms will have a greater tendency of Chile; and Stijn Claessens, University of Amsterdam. to access global exchanges. But there will be limits to the extent to which local market development is associated Reports with greater offshore activity. Migration of a major share Albuquerque, Rui, Norman Loayza, and Luis Serven. 2003. "World of market capitalization and value traded may have Market Integration rhrough the Lens of Foreign Direct adverse effects on the liquidity of the remaining com- Investors." Policy Research Working Paper 3060. World Bank, panies. Large-scale migration may also make it more Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. difficult to sustain a fully fledged local stock exchange. Calder6n, Cesar, Norman Loayza, and Luis Serven. 2004. "Green- These findings suggest that countries need to continue field Foreign Direct Investment and Mergers and Acquisi- to improve fundamental factors, such as shareholder tions: Feedback and Macroeconomic Effects." Policy Research protection and the quality of local legal systems, to make Working Paper 3192. World Bank, Development Research it more attractive for any investor to buy shares and thus Group, Washington, D.C. to make it easier for firms to list and trade in public Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2001. markets. But countries do not face a choice between "FDI and Stock Market Development: Complements or local and international exchanges: improving funda- Substitutes?" World Bank, Washington, D.C. mentals will lead to more activity, but most of this .2002. "ExplainingtheMigrationofStocks from Exchanges activity will go abroad as better fundamentals also accel- in Emerging Economies to International Centers." Policy erate migration. Thus countries will be best off facilitating Research Working Paper 2816. World Bank, Development as much as possible their firms' access to liquid interna- Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also published as CEPR tional exchanges-by removing regulatory barriers and Discussion Paper 3301, Centre for Economic Policy Research, harmonizing standards. Moreover, tighter links or even London, 2002.) Internationol Economics 87 Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, and Msaria Soledad Nlartinez increasing importance of distance can be explained by Peria. 2001. "Does Foreign Bank Penetration Reducc Access faster trade growth within regions over the past 20 years. to Credit in Developing Countries? Evidence from Asking The regional effect is robust and is not a function of a Borrowers." Policy Research Working Paper 2716. World Bank, distance-interval effect, trade preferences, borders, or the Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. sharing of a common language. Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, Maria Soledad Nlartinez Peria, The project will result in a policy report explaining and Susana NI. Sanchez. 2002. "Bank Lending to Small Busi- the results in nontechnical terms and detailing their nesses in Latin America: Does Bank Origin NMatter?" Policy implications for feasible gains from trade liberalization Research Working Paper 2760. World Bank, Development in different locations. It will also produce several acad- Research Group, Washington, D.C. emic papers exploring questions on the importance of Levine, Ross, and Sergio Schmukler. 2003. Migration, Spil/overs, and biased technological change and the implications of the Trade Diversion: The Impact of Internationalization on Stock results for regional trade agreements. Market Liquiditv. NBER Working Paper 9614. Cambridge, Findings have been presented at the World Bank, Nlass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. the Federal Reserve Board, the University of Delaware, the Empirical Investigations in International Trade Con- Geography, Trade, and Growth ference, and the American Economic Association meet- ings in January 2004. Future dissemination plans, This project has two purposes: First, to develop and recognizingthe implications of the effects of distance on implement a rigorous methodology to estimate how the trade for unilateral, regional, and multilateral liberaliza- elasticity of trade with respect to distance has changed. tion, center on institutions dealing with these matters: And second, to distinguish the primary causes for this the World Trade Organization, the European Union, the change. The analytic approach involves using trade Regional Integration Network in Latin America, and growth equations on bilateral trade between 130 coun- members of the Economic Community of West African tries to estimate how the effect of distance on trade States (ECOWAS). flows has changed over time. It also involves estimating Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- trade growth equations for more than 100 exporters in Caroline Louise Freund (cfreund@worldbank.org). With more than 700 product categories to examine proximity David Hummels, Purdue University; and Nlatias Berth- and trade growth within country groupings and industries, elon, Pontificia Universidad Cat6lica de Valparaiso, Chile. so as to develop a better understanding of the changing role of geography in globalization. This approach allows Reports disaggregation of the change in the effect of distance on Berthelon, Matias, and Caroline Louise Freund. Forthcoming. trade into the sources of the change. "On the Conservation of Distance in International Trade." Pol- UJsing highly disaggregated bilateral trade data, the icy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Development study decomposes the change in the elasticity of trade Research Group, Washington, D.C. with respect to distance into the part due to a shift in the . "Regional Borders Nlatter." World Bank, Development composition of trade and the part due to increasing dis- Research Group, Washington, D.C. tance sensitivity among industries. It finds that adjust- Freund, Caroline Louise, and David Hummels. "Why Hasn't ment in the composition of trade has had no effect on the Distance t)ied?" World Bank, Development Research Group, change in the elasticity of distance. In contrast, for more Washington, D.C. than 25 percent of industries, distance has become more important. This implies that the increased distance sen- Intellectual Property Rights and U.S. Multinationals sitivity of trade is a result of a change in relative trade costs that affects many industries, rather than a shift to more In multilateral trade negotiations a significant point of distance-sensitive products. The analysis shows that the contention between developing and industrial countries 88 International Economics involves the global standards for intellectual property This study provides direct input into World Bank rights required under the Agreement on Trade-Related advisory work relating to questions about intellectual Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). Many property rights reforms and technology transfer. developing country policymakers continue to believe Findings have been presented in seminars at Harvard that the mandated strengthening of patent and other Business School, Stanford University, the University of intellectual property rights systems now under way will Michigan, Columbia University, Yale University, the work against their national economic interests, transfer- Summer Institute of the National Bureau of Economic ring rents to multinational corporate patentholders head- Research, the Academy of International Business quartered in the world's most advanced countries, Conference (Monterey, California), Hitotsubashi especially the United States. Advocates of strong intel- University (Japan), Yokohama National University lectual property rights counter that strengthening such (Japan), and the Development Research Group's trade rights will induce more innovation worldwide-and thus series at the World Bank. more rapid economic growth-and accelerate the trans- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- fer of technology from the industrial to the developing Carsten Fink (cfink@worldbank.org). With Lee G. world, ensuring a relatively equal distribution of gains Branstetter and Raymond Fisman, Columbia Business from this policy change. School and National Bureau of Economic Research; and This study investigates these issues by looking at C. Fritz Foley, UJniversity of NMichigan. how multinational enterprises respond to different kinds of patcnt reform in different countries. The analysis Report uses firm-level data on exports, licensing, affiliate sales, Branstetter, Lee G., Raymond Fisman, and C. Fritz Foley. Forth- and patenting abroad from the survey of U.S. multi- coming. "Do Stronger Intellectual Property Rights Increase national activity by the U.S. Department of Commerce's International Technology Transfer? Empirical Evidence from Bureau of Economic Analysis. tT.S. Firm-Level Panel Data." Policy Research Working l'aper. The empirical results thus far show that U.S. multi- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. nationals do respond to changes in intellectual property rights regimes abroad. In the wake of legal reforms International Technology Diffusion: strengthening patent rights, royalty payments from over- Impact of Trade and Regional Integration seas affiliates to U.S. parent companies with large patent portfolios increase substantially, even when the analysis This research extended work relating to trade-related controls for changes in the sales of U.S. affiliates. These technology diffusion in several new directions: South- findings are consistent with either an increase in the South technology diffusion, the dynamics of regional volume of technology being transferred or an increase in integration, and the effect of the North American Free the degree to which U.S. multinationals are able to Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on lexico. The study inves- extract higher rents from technologies already deployed tigated several questions: in these countries. But subsidiary evidence on affiliates' * How is technological knowledge obtained from the research and development spending and foreign patent- North further diffused in the South through trade ing in the countries that reformed intellectual property between developing countries? rights systems considerably strengthens the interpretation * How does the effect of foreign research and devel- that at least part of the measured increase in technology opment (R&D) in the South and the North vary with the licensing reflects a real increase in the deployment of R&D intensity of industries? new technology to foreign affiliates in those countries. If * What are the implications of different trade policies further research substantiates these results, this may help for industry-specific productivity? allay some of the concerns of developing countries about * How do North-South free trade agreements affect implementing the TRIPS Agreement. total factor productivity in the South? And how do the Internotional Economics 89 effects on total factor productivity differ between indus- Working Paper 2861. World Bank, Development Research tries with high and low R&D intensity? Group, Washington, D.C. The study focused on countries in Central and East- ern Europe, Latin America, and North America. It Managing Globalization constructed a data set on North-South technology flows and used it to estimate the effect of trade, education, and This project addressed a number of questions relating governance on technology diffusion and growth. These to globalization: What is the impact of globalization on data also allowed the study to examine the effect of poor countries and poor people? Why are some devel- trade-related foreign R&D, education, and governance oping countries participating more in international trade on total factor productivity. and capital flows than others? What policies and insti- The results show that openness has a positive effect tutions will enhance the benefits of globalization for on productivity, an important dynamic benefit of trade. poor countries? What is the effect of globalization on such North-South trade raises total factor productivity mainly issues as health, culture, child labor, human rights, and in industries with high R&D intensity, while South- the environment? While the word globalization conveys South trade raises total factor productivity mainly in a range of changes in the way countries and peoples those with low R&D intensity. There is a virtuous cycle interact, the study focused primarily on openness to between education and openness: greater openness foreign trade and investment, with some attention to enhances the effect of education on total factor produc- other forms of openness (migration, the Internet, students tivity in R&D-intensive industries, which increases the abroad). return to education, which then leads to more education, The project both conducted new research, through which further increases total factor productivity. A case studies and statistical analysis, and drew on exist- similar virtuous cycle exists between governance and ing research done at the World Bank and elsewhere. openness. The work yielded three main findings that bear on The research sheds light on developing countries' current policy debates about globalization. optimal choice of partner for regional integration based First, poor countries with around 3 billion people on dynamic criteria. It also adds to the understanding of have broken into the global market for manufactures the effects of discriminatory trade policies. And it will help and services. While 20 years ago most exports from inform the work of the World Trade Organization in the developing countries were primary commodities, now next round of multilateral trade negotiations. manufactures and services predominate. The "new glob- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- alizers" have experienced large-scale poverty reduction. Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org). Second, in one of the most disturbing global trends of the past two decades, countries with around 2 billion Reports people are in danger of becoming marginal to the world Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang. 2002. "Regional Integration and economy. Incomes in these countries have been falling, Trade-Related Technology Diffusion: The Case of NAFTA." poverty has been rising, and these countries participate World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. less in trade today than they did 20 years ago. - . 2002. "Technology Diffusion and Productivity Gains: Third, while opinion polls in diverse countries reveal Mexico and Poland's Trade with CUSFTA and the EU." World an anxiety that economic integration will lead to cultural Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. or institutional homogenization, societies fully integrated 2003. "NAFTA, Technology Diffusion, and Productivity into the global economy differ enormously. Among the in Mexico." Cuadernos de Economfia 40(121): 469-76. richest countries, Denmark, Japan, and the United States Schiff, Maurice, Yanling Wang, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2002. differ in culture, institutions, social policies, and inequal- "Trade-Related Technology Diffusion and the Dynamics of ity. Among the developing country globalizers, such North-South and South-South Integration." Policy Research countries as China, India, Malaysia, and Mexico have 90 International Economics taken diverse routes toward integration and retain quite The research results have been disseminated in work- distinctive cultures and institutions. Nonetheless, some shops and seminars in all the World Bank's regions and recent developments in the global trading and investment in OECD countries. Findings were published in the regime are pushing countries toward an undesired World Bank Policy Research Report Globalization, Growth, standardization. and Poverty: Building an Inclusive IVorld Econom n (Paul Col- The study highlights many actions that could help lier and David Dollar, New York: Oxford University make globalization more beneficial, with seven particu- Press, 2002), which has been translated into a number of larly important for making globalization work for the languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Italian, Japanese, poor: Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, and Vietnamese). * Undertaking a "development round" of trade negotiations, NMeasuring the impact of any research is difficult. But focusing first and foremost on market access. since the report was published, the tone of the global- * Improving the investment climate in developing ization debate has changed considerably, from a "pro countries. A sound investment climate means good and con" debate to a more nuanced discussion of the economic governance, control of corruption, well- changes at global and national levels that would make functioning bureaucracies and regulation, contract global economic integration proceed more smoothly and enforcement, and protection of property rights. Also key provide more benefits to developing Countries and the to a good investment climate is transport and telecom- poor people living in them. munications infrastructure providing links to other mar- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Office of the kets within a country and globally. Director-Paul Collier (pcollierCaworldbank.org), Invest- * Improving deliverl of education and health services. ment Climate-Ximena Clark, Mary Hallward- With poor social services, globalization can easily lead to Driemeier, and Sergio Schmukler, Trade-Will Nlartin, mounting inequality within a country and persistence of Infrastructure and Environment-Zmarak Shalizi, and extreme poverty. Poverty Team-Nlichael Woolcock: Development Eco- * Providing social protection to a changing labor market. nomics Senior Vice Presidency, Development Policy- Tailoring social protection to the needs of a changing David Dollar; Africa Technical Families, Poverty economy helps workers adjust to the challenges of a Reduction and Economic Management 2-Christiane more open economy-and enables workers and Kraus; and East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduc- entrepreneurs to take more risks and respond to new tion and Economic Management Sector Department- opportunities. NIartin Rama. With Pablo Zoido-Lobat6n; Richard * Providing more andbettermanaged foreign aid. Evidence Freeman, Harvard University and National Bureau of shows that private investment is slow to respond when Economic Research; Jean 0. Lanjouw, Yale University, low-income countries improve their investment climate Brookings Institution, and National Bureau of Economic and social services. It is precisely in this environment that Research; Peter Lindert, [University of California at large-scale aid can have a great impact on growth and Davis; Remco Oostendorp, Vrije University; John Sut- poverty reduction. ton, London School of Economics; Anthony Venablcs, * Supporting debt relieffor reformers. Reducing the debt London School of Economics and Centre for Economic of the most marginalized countries, especially in Africa, Policy Research; and Jeff Williamson, Harvard llniver- will enable them to participate more in globalization sity. and the benefits it can bring. * Tackling greetnhouse gases. There is broad agreement Report among scientists that human activity is leading to potentially Collier, Paul, and David Dollar. 2002. Globalization, Growrth, disastrous global warming and that these changes will and Povertv: Building an Inclusive W,lorld EconomyV. World Bank be especially burdensome for poor countries and poor Policy Research Report. New York: Oxford LUniversity people. Press. International Economics 91 Preshipment Inspection and Customs Corruption The findings have been presented at several seminars, including 3eme Cycle Romand in Crans-NIontana, First introduced in 1963 in Zaire (now the Democratic Switzerland, and a trade workslhop at the Centre for Republic of Congo) and since then adopted by more than Economic Policy Research in London, and at the World 50 countries, preshipment inspection requires that Bank, George W7ashington University, and the UTniver- imports be inspected by a private company at embarka- sitv of Lausanne. Seminar presentations in Nlorocco and tion ports or airports or at the exporters' premises- lTruguay are also planned. rather than just at the importing countrv's customs. It was Responsibility: Dlevelopment Research Group, 1rade- originally intended to fight the use of overinvoiced NMarcelo Olarreaga (molarreaga@worldbank.org). With imports to evade capital controls. As capital controls Jose Anson and Olivier Cadot, UTniversity of Lausanne. were phased out, attention shifted to fighting evasion of import tariffs and, starting with Indonesia's program in Report 1985, to curbing underinvoicing. This study provides a Anson, Jose. ()tivicr Cadot, an(i Niarcelo ()larrcaga. 2003. "''ariff new approach to evaluating preshipment inspection as Evasion and Customs (Corruption: Docs P'rcshipmcnt Inspec- a tool for improving tariff collection and reducing fraud tion 1-cip?" Policy Rcscarch \Working Papcr 3156. XVorld Bank. when customs administrations are corrupt. Dcvclopment Rescarch Group, \Vashington. 1).C. The study uses a simple information production framework to study the effect that introducing preship- The Regional Impact of China's Accession ment inspection may have on incentives to bribe and to to the World Trade Organization accept bribes. The basic idea is that customs must spend costly resources assessing the value of shipments and that This rcsearch attempts to analyze and quantify in a the outcomc of their effort is stochastic-that is, greater consistent way-taking into account the complex inter- effort only reduces the likelihood of errors. In this regional and intersectoral links-the impact of China's context preshipment inspection provides additional accession to the World 'T'rade Organization (WTO) on information on shipment value. In a perfect world this countries in East Asia and largc developing countrics in information would only be used by governmcnts to the rest of the world. '['he analysis uses a modified ver- control fraud. Alternatively, as the model highlights, if sion of a global dynamic applied general equilibrium government authorities fail to use the information through model (GTAP-[)yn) that differs from other models in its audits and reconciliation, it simply generates information detailed coverage of individual East Asian economies and rents for corrupt customs officers that they will share with its global coverage featuring the major industrial and importers through bribery arrangements. developing countries in the rest of the world. 'l'he model The study tests this hypothesis using trade data, is solved to determine the endogenous changes in providing nonparametric evidence for 16 developing output and trade floxvs resulting from the proposed trade countries. It then tests the hypothesis using parametric policy changes. techniques in three of these countries (because of data Results show that China will be the biggest benefi- constraints). ciary of its accession to the W'FO. The industrial and Theoretically, introducing preshipment inspection newly industrialized economies in East Asia will be the has an ambiguous effect on the level of customs fraud. next biggest bencficiaries, but their benefits will be This is confirmed by the nonparametric evidence for the small relative to the size of their economies and to the 16 countries in the sample, where ambiguous effects are vigorous growth projected in the region ovcr the next 10 found. The parametric estimates suggest that preship- years. By contrast, developing countries in East Asia arc ment inspection reduced fraud in the Philippines, expected to incur small declines in real GDP and wel- increased it in Argentina, and had no significant effect fare as a result of China's accession. 'T'he main reason is in Indonesia. that with the elimination of quottas on Chinese tcxtile and 92 Internotional Economics apparel exports to industrial countries, China will become Regional Integration and Development a formildable competitor in areas where these countries have comparative advantage. With most countries belonging to at least one regional With accession to the WTO China will increase its integration arrangement and many considering joining demand for petrochemicals. electronics, machinery, and or forming new ones, it was deemed important that the e(ltiipmcnt from Japan and the newly industrialized World Bank undertake a research project on the topic to economies-and for farm, timber, and energy products help advise countries contemplating regional trade lib- and other manufactures from East Asian developing eralization. This project examined issues relevant for countries. New foreign investment is likely to flow into regional integration arrangements in general. It analyzed these expanding sectors. The overall impact on foreign the political benefits from regional integration in terms investment is likely to be positive for the newly indus- of security and democracy as well as conditions for fail- trialized economies, but negative for the less developed ure in these areas. It examined the dynamic effects of East Asian countries as a result of the contraction of regional integration through foreign direct investment, their textile and apparel sector. As China becomes a location choices, technology diffusion, and growth. And more efficient supplier of services or a more efficient it examined the effects of different types of regional producer of high-end manufactures, its comparative integration arrangements-South-South and North- advantage will shift into higher-end products. That will South-in the areas of politics, trade policy, foreign direct be good news for poor developing economies in East Asia, investment, credibility, deep integration, technology, but it mav mean greater competition in global markets and growth. for the newly industrialized economies. The research used a variety of methodologies, depend- Findings have been disseminated to World Bank staff ing on the questions examined, including computable and client countries through policy notes and presenta- general equilibrium models, theoretical models, and tions at the Fourth Asia Development Forum, an East econometric analysis. Asia and Pacific Region workshop on trade and poverty The main findings are as follows: in Tokyo, and seminars in East Asia. Key findings were * Regional integration arrangements are created to also presented at conferences on global economic attain political benefits (such as security or democracy) modeling in 'I'he Hague and Istanbul. or as the result of political economy forces (pressure Responsibility: Povertv Reduction and Economic Nlanage- groups). ment Network, Economic Policy Division-Elena * Regional integration arrangements can improve lanchovichina (eianchovichina@worldbank.org). With security and governance if these are part of the initial Terric Walmslev, Purdue University and Sheffield motivation, but they can worsen security otherwise. University. * North-South regional integration arrangements are more beneficial than South-South ones (NMercosur and Reports other regional integration arrangements with middle- lanchovichina, Elena, and Terrie Walmslev. 2003. "The Impact of income countries may not fit the profile of South-South China's Wit') Accession on East Asia." Policy Rcsearch Work- arrangements). ing l'aper 3109. Wo'rld Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic * To minimize the risks of harmful trade diversion and Nlanagcment Network, Economic Policyv ivision. NVashington. of transfer of revenues to partner countries, member D.C. countries should lower their most-favored-nation tariffs lanchovichina. Elena, Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput, and MI. Zhao. and liberalize unilaterally when they join regional inte- 2004. "Rcgional Impact of China's WTl'O) Accession." In Kathie gration arrangements. Krumm and Homi Kharas. eds.. Fast Asia Integrates.- Al rade r1'he research has been brought together in a book Poljic) Agenda for Shared Growth. Washington, D.C.: World (\I ju.ri,e Schiff and L. Alan WVinters, RegionalIntegration Bank. and Development, New York: Oxford UJniversity Press, Internotional Economics 93 2003), intended for trade specialists and analysts, that cov- Affects Cameroon's Economy: General Equilibrium Estimates." ers the topics in depth, providing the analytic framework, Policy Research Working Paper 1872. World Bank, Develop- case studies, empirical work, and background data. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Designed to serve as a tool for teaching and technical Blomstrom, Magnus, and Ari Kokko. 1997. "Competition Policy advice, the book has been presented in developing and in Customs Unions: Theory and an Example from U.S. History." transition economies at conferences, to research institu- Pennsylvania State University, State College. tions, and to policy researchers and analysts working on . 1997. "How Foreign Investment Affects Host Countries." these issues. It has been or is being translated into PolicyResearchWorkingPaperl745.WorldBank,International Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, and Spanish. Economics Department, Washington, D.C. The findings have also been widely shared through . 1997. "Regional Integration and Foreign Direct Invest- trade seminars and dissemination missions to such ment: A Conceptual Framework and Three Cases." Policy organizations as Mercosur, the Regional Integration Research Working Paper 1750. World Bank, International Network, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Economics Department, Washington, D.C. and Development, the European Commission, and the Blomstrom, Magnus, Costas Syropoulos, and L. Alan Winters. Central Bank of Chile. 1996. "Deepening of Regional Integration and Multilateral Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Mau- Trade Agreements." CEPR Discussion Paper 1317. Centre for rice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org) and Bernard Hoek- Economic Policy Research, London. man. With L. Alan Winters, University of Sussex; Soamiely Bond, Eric W. 1997. "Transportation Infrastructure Investments Andriamananjara, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative; and Regional Trade Liberalization." Policy Research Working Dani Ben-David, Tel Aviv University; Magnus Blom- Paper 1851. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- strom, University of Stockholm; Eric Bond, Pennsylvania ington, D.C. State University; Won Chang; D. de Rosa, ADR Interna- - . 1997. "Using Tariff Indices to Evaluate Preferential Trad- tional; Valerie de Bonis, Sapienza University, Rome; ing Arrangements: An Application to Chile." Policy Research Raquel Fernandez, New York University; Anju Gupta; J. Working Paper 1751. World Bank, International Economics Hayden; Bartlomiej Kaminski, University of Maryland; Ari Department, Washington, D.C. Kokko, Stockholm School of Economics; Patrick Messer- de Bonis, Valeria. 1997. "Regional Integration and Commodity Tax lin; Marcelo Olarreaga, World Trade Organization; J. F. Harmonization." Policy Research Working Paper 1848. World Ruhashyankiko; Isidro Soloaga; and Anthony Venables and Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Diego Puga, London School of Economics. . 1997. "Regional Integration and Factor Income Taxa- tion." Policy Research Working Paper 1849. World Bank, Devel- Reports opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Amjadi, Azita, and L. Alan Winters. 1997. "Transport Costs and Fernandez, Raquel, and Jonathan Portes. 1997. "Returns to Region- 'Natural' Integration in Mercosur." Policy Research Working alism: An Evaluation of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Paper 1742. World Bank, International Economics Depart- Trade Agreements." Policy Research Working Paper 1816. ment, Washington, D.C. World Bank, International Economics Department, Washing- Amjadi, Azita, L. Alan Winters, and Alexander Yeats. 1995. ton, D.C. (Also published in lWorldBank EconomicReview 12[2]: "Transport Costs and Economic Integration in the Americas." 197-220, 1998.) Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 131(3). Galal, Ahmed, and Bernard Hoekman. eds. 1997. Regional Partners Andriamananjara, Soamiely, and Maurice Schiff. 1998. "Regional in Global Markets: Limits and Possibilities of the Euro-Med Initia- Groupings among Microstates." Policy Research Working Paper tive. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research. 1922. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Gupta, Anju, and Maurice Schiff. 1997. "Outsiders and Regional D.C. Trade Agreements among Small Countries." Policy Research Bakoup, Ferdinand, and David Tarr. 1998. "How Integration into Working Paper 1847. World Bank, International Economics the Central African Economic and Monetary Community Department, Washington, D.C. 94 International Economics Harrison, Glenn, Thomas Rutherford, and David Tarr. 1996. Hoekman, Bernard, Denise Konan, and Keith Maskus. 1998. "Increased Competition and Completion of the Market in the "Economic Effects of a Free Trade Agreement between Egypt European Union: Static and Steady State Effects." Journal of and the United States." In Ahmed Galal and Robert Z. Economic Integration 11(3): 332-65. Lawrence, eds., Building Bridges:An Egypt-U.S. Free TradeAgree- - 1997. "Economic Implications for Turkey of a Customs ment. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. Union with the European Union." European Economic Review Kaminski, Bartlomiej. 1996. "Impediments to Establishing Eco- 41(3-5): 861-70. nomic Foundations for a Viable State of Bosnia and Herzegovina: - 1997. "Trade Policy Options for Chile: A Quantitative Issues and Policies." World Bank, International Economics Evaluation." Policy Research Working Paper 1783. World Bank, Department, Washington, D.C. International Economics Department, Washington, D.C. . 1997. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Hoekman, Bernard. 1995. "Trading Blocs and the Trading System: Policies in Poland's Accession to the European Union." Back- The Services Dimension." Journalof EconomicIntegration 10(1): ground paper to World Bank, "Poland: Strategies and Policy 1-31. Options on the Road to European Union Membership." World .1997. "The WTO, the EU, and the Arab World: Trade Pol- Bank, International Economics Department, Washington, D.C. icy Priorities and Pitfalls." In Nemat Shafik, ed., Prospectsfor . 1998. "Foreign Trade: Performance, Institutions, and Poli- Middle Eastern and North African Economies: From Boom to Bust cies." In R. Staar, ed., Challenges to Democracy in Poland. New and Back? New York: St. Martin's. York: St. Martin's. - 1998. "Preferential Trade Agreements." Brookings Trade . 1998. "Foreign Trade Policy and Institutions: Getting Forum 1998. Ready for Accession." Greater Europe, Natolin Review 1(1). - 1999. "Free Trade Agreements in the Mediterranean: A . 1998. "Poland's Transition from the Perspective of Per- Regional Path towards Liberalization?" Journal of North African formance in EU Markets." CommunistEconomies and Economic Studies 3(2). Transformation 10(2). Hoekman, Bernard, and Simeon Djankov. 1996. "The European Majd, Nader, and L. Alan Winters. "EU-Egyptian Association Union's Mediterranean Free Trade Initiative." WorldEconomy Agreement." World Bank, International Economics Department, 19(4): 387-406. Washington, D.C. .1996. "Intra-Industry Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, Martin, Will. "Assessing the Implications for Lebanon of Free and the Reorientation of Eastern European Exports." Policy Trade with the European Union." World Bank, Development Research Working Paper 1562. World Bank, International Research Group, Washington, D.C. Economics Department, Washington, D.C. Maskus, Keith E., and Denise Eby Konan. 1997. "Trade Liberal- - 1997. "Determinants of the Export Structure of Central ization in Egypt." Review ofDevelopmentEconomics 1(3): 275-93. and Eastern European Countries." WorldBank EconomicReview Michalopoulos, Constantine, and David Tarr. 1997. "The 11(3): 471-90. Economics of Customs Unions in the Commonwealth of .1997. "Effective Protection and Investment Incentives in Independent States." Post-SovietGeographyandEconomics38(3): Egypt and Jordan: Implications of Free Trade with Europe." 125-43. World Development 25: 281-91. Olarreaga, Marcelo, and Isidro Soloaga. 1998. "Endogenous Tar- - 1997. "Towards a Free Trade Agreement with the Euro- iff Formation: The Case of Mercosur." World Bank Economic pean Union: Issues and Policy Options for Egypt." In Ahmed Review 12(2): 297-320. Galal and Bernard Hoekman, eds., Regional Partners in Global Padoan, Pier Carlo. 1997. "Technology Accumulation and Diffu- Markets: Limits and Possibilities of the Euro-Med Initiative. sion: Is There a Regional Dimension?" Policy Research Work- London: Centre for Economic Policy Research. ing Paper 1781. World Bank, International Economics Hoekman, Bernard, and Maurice Schiff. 2003. "Regional Integra- Department, Washington, D.C. tion and Trade Policy in the Middle East and North Africa." Puga, Diego, and Anthony Venables. 1997. "Trading Arrange- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, ments and Industrial Development." Policy Research Working D.C. Paper 1787. World Bank, International Economics Depart- International Economics 95 ment, Washington, D.C. (Also published in WVorld Bank . 2003. Regional Integration and Development. New York: Economic Review 12[2]: 221-49, 1998.) Oxford tUniversity Press. Rutherford, Thomas F, and David Tarr. 1997. "Morocco's Free Stephenson, Sherry. 1997. "Standards and Conformity Trade Agreement with the EUJ: A Quantitative Assessment." Assessment as Nontariff Barriers to 'rrade." Policy Research Economic Modelling 14: 237-69. Working Paper 1826. World Bank, D)evelopment Research .1997. "Regional Trading Arrangements for Chile: Do the Group, Washington, D.C. Results Differ with a Dynamic Model?" Paper presented at the Vamvakidis, Athanasios. 1998. "Regional Integration and ASSA meetings in New Orleans, January. Economic Growth." IWtorld Bank Economic Review 12(2): - 1998. "Regional Trading Arrangements: The Implica- 251-70. tions for Chilean Economic Growth." Paper presented at Winters, L. Alan. 1996. "Integration europeenne et bien-etrc Coloquio Academico de las Americas, Costa Rica, March economique dans le reste du monde." Economie internationale 12-14. 65: 123-42. Schiff, NMaurice. 1997. "Small Is Beautiful: Preferential Trade - . 1996. "Regionalism versus Multilatcralism." Policy Agreements and the Impact of Country Size, Market Share, and Research Working Paper 1687. World Bank, International Smuggling." Journal of Economic Integration 12: 359-87. Economics Department, Washington, D.C. (Also published - 1999. "Will the Real 'Natural Trading Partner' Please in Daniel Cohen, Anthony Venables, Andre Sapir, and Stand Up?" Policy Research Working Paper 2161. World Bank, Richard Baldwin, eds., Mfarket Integration, Regionalism, and Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. the Global Economy, Cambridge: Cambridge I Tniversitv Press, 2003. "Regional Integration and Development in Small 1999.) States." In T K. Bhaumik, ed., DohaDevelopmentAgenda:A Global . 1997. "Assessing Regional 'rrade Arrangements." Paper View. London: Penguin Books. presented at the Annual World Bank Conference on Devel- Schiff, NMaurice, and Won Chang. 2003. "Mlarket Presence, opment in Latin America and the Caribbean, Montevideo, Contestability, and the Terms-of-Trade Effects of Regional Uruguay, June. Integration." Journal of International Economics 60(1): . 1997. "Experiencias y lecci6nes de la integraci6n europea." 161-75. In Las Americas: Integraci6n econmica en perspectiva. Washington, Schiff, Maurice, and C. Sapelli, eds. 1996. Chile en el NAFTA: D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank. Acuerdos de libre comercio versus liberalizaci6n unilateral. Santiago, . 1997. "Lebanon's Euro-Mediterranean Agreement: Chile, and San Francisco: Centro International para el Possible Dynamic Benefits." InW. Shahin and K. Shchadi, eds., Desarrollo Econ6mico. Pathwxavs to Integration: I.ebanon and the Euro-illediterranean Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang. 2003. "NAFTA, Technology Partnership. Bonn: Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Diffusion, and Productivity in Nlexico." Cuadernos de Economfa . 1997. "Regionalism and the Rest of the World: The 40(121): 469-76. Irrelevance of the Kemp-Wan Theorem." Oxford Economic Schiff, Maurice, and L. Alan Winters. 1997. "Regional Integration Papers 49: 228-34. as Diplomacy." Policy Research Working Paper 1801. World .1997. "Regionalism and the Rest of the World: Theory and Bank, International Economics Department, Washington, D.C. the Effects of European Integration." Review, of International (Also published in llorldBank Economic Review, 12[2]: 271-95, Economics 5(4, suppl.): 134-47. 1998.) . 1997. "What Can European Experience 'Feach Develop- - 2002. "Regional Cooperation and the Role of Interna- ing Countries about Intcgration?" llorldkEonomy 20: 889-912. tional Organizations and Regional Integration." Policy Research Winters, L. Alan, and Won Chang. 1997. "Regional Integration and Working Paper 2872. NVorld Bank, Development Research the Prices of Imports: An Empirical Investigation." Policy Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 1782. World Bank, International .2002. "Regionalism and Development: The Implications Economics Department, Washington, D.C. of World Bank Research for ACP and Latin American Coun- World Bank. 2000. Trade Blocs. NVorld Bank Policy Research Report. tries." Journal of IVorld Trade 36(3): 479-99. New York: Oxford ULniversity Press. 96 International Economics Regional Trade Patterns Technology Diffusion and Growth in Latin America: Impact of Trade, Education, and Governance 'Fhis project involves continuing research on regional trade integration and its dynamic implications, based This research, part of the body of work on the effect of on empirical models and econometric analysis. It exam- trade policy on growth, estimated stocks of trade-related ines the effect of regional trade agreements on prices and foreign knowledge and their effect-as well as the effects welfare in member countries, reviews existing regional of education and governance-on total factor productivity. integration policies in the Middle East and North Africa Openness has a positive impact on productivity through and suggests further reforms, and examines trade and the transfer of technology, an important dynamic bene- regional integration policies in the African, Caribbean, fit of trade. The research examined this effect empiri- and Pacific countries and in Latin American countries. cally for Latin America, including the interaction between Results show that the evolution of patterns of trade, technology diffusion, education, and governance. including distance, is affected by new technologies (such Results show that greater openness and higher levels as just-in-time production), the evolution of transport of education and governance raise total factor productivity. costs (dwell costs relative to distance-related costs), and The findings, expected to inform World Bank opera- other factors-and that these factors in turn affect tech- tions, help clarify which factors matter for productivity nology absorption and productivity growth. The results growth and what their relative importance is. provide insights into the evolution of trade patterns and Findings are being disseminated through working productivity growth for developing countries. papers, journal articles, and conference presentations. Results have been presented at the World Bank and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- at seminars and conferences. Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org) and NMarcelo Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Olarreaga. With Yanling Wang, Carleton Ulniversity. NIlaurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org) and Bernard Hoekman. With Won Chang, U.S. Department of the Reports Treasury; and L. Alan Winters, University of Sussex. Lumenga-Neso, Olivier, Marcelo Olarreaga, and NMaurice Schiff. 2003. "On 'Indirect' Trade-Related R&D Spillovers." CEPR Discussion Reports Paper 2871. Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Hoekman, Bernard, and Maurice Schiff. 2003. "Regional Integra- Olarreaga, Nlarcelo, Maurice Schiff, and Yanling Wang. 2003. tion and Trade Policy in the Nliddle East and North Africa." "North-South and South-South 'Irade-Related TIechnology World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Diffusion: An Industry-Level Analysis." CEPR Discussion Schiff, Maurice. 2002. "Chile's Trade and Regional Integration Paper 3711. Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. P'olicy: An Assessment." Wl`orld Econom,y 25(7): 973-90. Schiff, NMaurice, and Yanling Wang. 2003. "Education, Governance, 2002. "Chile's 'I'rade Policy: An Assessment." Working and Trade-Related Technology Diffusion in Latin America." Paper 151. Central Bank of Chile, Santiago. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Schiff, Maurice, and Won Chang. 2003. "Mlarket Presence, . 2004. "On the Quantity and Quality of Knowledge: 'I'he Contestabilitv, and the 'IFerms-of-Trade Effects of Regional Impact of Openness and Foreign Research and Development Integration." Journal of International Economics 60(1): 161-75. on North-North and North-South Technology Spillovers." Schiff, NMaurice, and L. Alan Winters. 2002. "Regional Coopera- Policy Research Working Paper 3190. World Bank, Develop- tion and the Role of International Organizations and Regional ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Integration." Policy Research Working Paper 2872. World Bank, Schiff, Maurice, Yanling Wang, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2003. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. "Trade-Related Technology Diffusion and the Dynamics of - 20(2. "Regionalism and Development: The Implications North-South and South-South Integration." Policy Research of World Bank Research for ACP and Latin American Coun- Working Paper 2861. World Bank, Development Research tries." Jouirnal of Wlorld wrade 36(3): 479-99. Group, Washington, D.C. Iniernotionil Economics 97 Trade and Technical Change To help meet these needs, the World Bank's Devel- opment Data Group is developing the World Integrated This research examined the effect of trade and educa- Trade Solution (WITS), a system for accessing and tion policies on North-North, North-South, and South- retrieving trade and tariff data compiled by various inter- South technology spillovers. The broader objective was national organizations. This project is building into the to shed light on the dynamic effect of openness and WITS system the capabilities for trade policy analysis and education on growth. support to trade negotiators. The research involved constructing stocks of research The work includes identification of users' needs, and development (R&D) in OECD countries, then using remote dissemination of portable versions of the software, regression analysis to examine how trade affected total and training of users in developing countries. factor productivity in developing countries. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Will The results show that openness and higher education Martin (wmartinl@worldbank.org); Development Data increase both technology spillovers and total factor pro- Group-Jerzy T. Rozanski; and World Bank Institute, ductivity. North-South trade affects productivity mainly Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Divi- in industries with high R&D intensity, while South- sion-Marc Bacchetta. South trade affects productivity mainly in those with low R&D intensity. Trade Facilitation and Asia-Pacific The research has helped clarify the effect of trade as Economic Cooperation a channel for technology diffusion and provided dynamic arguments for the benefits of openness. The results Most developing countries have been undertaking first- show the importance of education not only for those generation trade reforms, mainly easing border restric- obtaining it but also for the economy as a whole, through tions on merchandise trade and liberalizing foreign the additional growth effects. Education enhances the exchange markets. As they have done so, it has become growth effect of openness-and openness enhances the obvious that their successful integration into the world growth effect of education. economy increasingly depends on complex, behind-the- The results will be disseminated through workshops, border measures that fall under the heading of trade conferences, papers, and journal articles. facilitation. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- This research project has investigated how capacity Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org). With Yanling building in trade facilitation could increase trade flows Wang, Carleton University. among member economies of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and worldwide. Using an econo- Report metric approach based on cross-country data on bilateral Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang. 2003. "North-South and South- trade flows between developing and transition economies South Trade-Related Technology Diffusion: An Industry-Level and OECD countries, the research has analyzed the Analysis." World Bank, Development Research Group, potential effects on trade of improvements in the Washington, D.C. efficiency of customs, ports, and institutions. The analysis shows that improving port efficiency Trade and Trade Policy Data System has a large and positive effect on trade flows, as does easing regulatory barriers to trade. Improvements in Developing country policymakers need first-rate, customs and greater use of e-business significantly expand flexible data analysis tools to evaluate offers made in trade trade, but less so than improvements in ports or regula- negotiations. And the World Bank and its partner tions. Estimates show that if APEC members with below- institutions need analytic tools to help them summarize average indicators in these four areas improved their the myriad trade data supplied by countries. capacity to half the average for all APEC members, 98 International Economics annual intra-APEC trade could increase by $254 billion, Simpler Procedures for World Trade Growth, lJnited Nations or 21 percent. About half the increase would come from Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, May 27-31. improvements in port efficiency. If the reform took place Wilson, John S., and Yuen Pau Woo. 2000. "Cutting through Red on a global scale (represented by 75 countries), the gains Tape: New Directions for APEC's Trade Facilitation Agenda." in annual trade would amount to $377 billion. Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, Vancouver. Findings have been disseminated through workshops Wilson, John S., Carsten Fink, and Shweta Bagai. 2003. "Reduc- and seminars for donor and government officials and ing Trade Costs in a New Era of Security." In World Bank, Global trade and development economists and practitioners, Economic Prospects 2004. Washington, D.C. including in Panama City (June 27-29, 2000); in Singa- Wilson, John S., Catherine L. Nlann, and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2003. pore (September 13-14, 2000); at the Japan Bank for "Trade Facilitation and Capacity Building: A Global Perspec- International Cooperation (March 5, 2002); and at the tive." Paper presented at the APEC Capacity Building Work- World Trade Organization (July 2, 2003). shop on Measuring Nontariff Barriers, APEC Secretariat, U.S. The project has constructed a database on trade facil- International Trade Commission, and Australia Productivity itation for 75 countries, including APEC members, from Commission, Bangkok, April 10. multiple sources of survey data. The indicators of trade . 2003. "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: A facilitation were developed to be of immediate use for New Approach to Quantifying the Impact." World Bank policymaking. Economic Review 17(3): 367-89. The project has provided analytic support for World . 2003. "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: Bank country economic memorandums for Costa Rica, Measuring the Impact." Policy Research Working Paper 2988. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua as World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. well as for a trade facilitation grant to the Conference of . 2004. "Assessing the Potential Benefit of Trade Facilita- Ministers of Agriculture of West and Central Africa and tion: A Global Perspective." Policy Research Working Paper operational projects relating to trade facilitation and 3224. World Bank, Urban Development Department and Devel- export competitiveness in Honduras and Peru. It has opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. also fed into World Bank courses on trade facilitation (June Wilson, John S., Catherine Mann, Yuen Pau Woo, Nizar Assanie, and 25, 2003, and March 31, 2004). Inbom Choi. 2002. "Trade Facilitation: A Development Per- Results from the study are available on the Web at spective in the Asia-Pacific Region." APEC Secretariat, Singapore. http://www.worldbank.org/trade/standards. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-John Trade Facilitation and Development in East Asia S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org) and Tsunehiro Otsuki. With Denis Sosyura, Vanderbilt University; This study was designed to provide guidance to World Catherine Mann, Institute of International Economics; Bank staff in formulating their policy research agenda and Baishali Majumdar; and Yuen Pau Woo. in advising East Asian policymakers on trade facilitation, an important aspect of the World Trade Organization's Reports (WTO) Doha Development Agenda round of trade talks. Wilson, John S. 2002. "The Economic Impact of Trade Facilita- The study reviewed the literature and data on trade tion: Development Perspectives in the Asia Pacific." Paper facilitation, comparing performance in East Asian coun- presented at the Fourth Asia Development Forum, Seoul, tries with that in comparator countries in other regions. November 3-5. It also reviewed ongoing technical assistance activities .2003. "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development." and international collaborative agreements, including Paper presented at a trade training seminar, U.S. Agency for the World Customs Organization and WTO discussions. International Development, Washington, D.C., June 25-27. And it identified further research needed to answer - 2003. "Trade-Related Technical Assistance." Paper questions developing countries may have about WTO presented at the International Forum on Trade Facilitation: negotiations on trade facilitation. International Economics 99 The study reviewed the activities of 19 agencies and particular reforms and methodology-focused studies organizations to identify key roles of each in promoting developing better measures of the effects of trade trade facilitation. And it identified customs valuation and reforms. management procedures conducive to rapid trade pro- The project sponsored a set of papers, and a panel cessing. The study found that clearance times in West- session on the World Trade Organization's (WTO) ern countries were much faster than those in East Asia, Millennium Round, at the Second Annual Conference in large part because of cumbersome procedures and out- on Global General Economic Modeling (Funen, dated technology used in East Asian developing countries. Denmark, June 1999). The aim was to stimulate think- Among the worst performers for sea cargo were the Rus- ing and inform modelers about the issues posed by the sian Federation, China, India, and Indonesia. Mlillennium Round for developing countries. 'l'he papers, This study, along with other World Bank studies, covering the main sectors of liberalization, introduced contributed to the Bank's decision to launch a new trade several new approaches, including a dynamic approach facilitation lending program. It also helped shape the to assessing trade liberalization and a stochastic protec- Bank's position on trade facilitation issues in the WTO. tion approach to evaluating liberalization offers. The Findings were presented to a high-level conference project has also undertaken several other activities. of experts in Cairo on May 20-21, 2002. In addition, Globaltrade modeling. A detailed global modeling exer- World Bank studies incorporating some of the findings cise has provided the main empirical support for proposals were presented to a Pacific Economic Cooperation Coun- on global trade reform. 'T'he results provided the basis for cil conference in Brunei and to audiences in Africa, comparisons of the costs of industrial country protection China, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. with the costs of aid transfers, comparisons that have The study fed into several World Bank analyses, featured prominently in the debates on multilateral trade including those for the World Bank's Global Economic reform. Prospects 2002 (Washington, D.C., 2001) and GlobalEco- Tariff preferences. Applied modeling has provided nomic Prospects 2003 (Washington, D.C., 2002), as well as inadequate treatment of tariff preferences, reducing the the regional study East Asia Integrates: A Trade PolicT accuracy of the results and, often, making them Agenda for Shared Growth (Kathie Krumm and Homi completely misleading. This study introduced data on Kharas, eds., Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2004). protection patterns-including preferences constructed Responsibility: Development Prospects Group-Richard from the tINCTAD Trade Analysis and Information Newfarmer (rnewfarmer@worldbank.org). With Janet System (TRAINS) data-into the Global 'Trade Tay, Janet Tay Consultants, Singapore. Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The resulting protec- tion data were then compared with those developed Report by the International Trade Centre and Centre Janet 'I'av Consultants. 2002. "Facilitating Trade: The East Asian d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales Experience in a Comparative Context." Paper presented at the (CEPII). roundtable Informing the Doha Process: New Trade Research Formula approaches to -nJ negotiations. Perhaps the for Developing Countries. Cairo, Nlay 20-21. greatest successes in trade liberalization under the Gen- eral Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and in Trade Modeling Project regional trade arrangements have occurred when ncgo- tiators focused on formulas for reducing trade barriers, This project has aimed to provide quantitative estimates as in the Kennedy and 'Tokyo Rounds, rather than on of the effects of trade and related policy reforms on request-and-offer approaches. The formula approach developing countries, particularly poor people within used in the Uruguay Round agreement on agriculture, these countries. 'IThe work has involved a mix of applied however, which emphasized average cuts in tariffs rathcr studies providing direct estimates of the effects of than cuts in the average tariff, highlighted the need for 1 00 Internationol Economics care in specifving the formula. A study has identified a of Rich (and Poor) Country Protection to Developing Coon- ncw approach to tariff cutting formulas that provides tries." Journalof African Economies 10(3): 227-57. much more flexibility than earlicr approaches, and ana- Fran,ois, Joseph. 1999. "Stochastic Protection, Policy Bindings, and lyzed its implications for tariff levels in key industrial and Investment." Paper presented at the Sccond Annual Confer- developing countrics. ence on Global General Economic Modcling, Panel Session on I,ink bertween trade andpovet?. Another activity is devel- the WTO's Nlillennium Round, Funen, Denmark, jLine. oping a large-scale modeling approach to take into account Fran,ois, Joseph, and Will Martin. 2003. "Formula Approaches for the effects of global trade reform on the welfare of the Nlarket Access Negotiations." 1'orldEconomv7 26(1): 1-28. poor. Virtually all analyses of global trade reform have pro- . Forthcoming. "Commercial Plolicy, Bindings, and Nlarkct vided estimatcs of its effect only at a national aggregate Access." European Economic Rezuiew. level. TIhis study aims to develop a modeling frame- Hertel, 'rhomas V, and Will Martin. 2000. "liberalizingAgriculturc wvork ablc to provide estimates of the effects of differ- and Manufactures in a Millennium Round: Implications for ent trade reforms on poor people in a wvide range of Developing Countries." World EconomY 23: 455-70. countries. Ilhe analysis covers 14 countries and incor- . 2001. "Second-Best Linkages and the Gains from Glohal porates key distinctions between short- and long-run Reform of Manufactures 'Irade." Revivr of International effects of trade reform on the poor. 'I'he work has shown Economics 9(2): 215-32. that the short-run effects of policies such as agricultural Hertel, 'I'homas W., Nlaros Ivanic, Paul Preckel, and John Cran- trade reform often differ markedly from the long-run field. Forthcoming. "Poverty Impacts of NMultilateral 'Iradc effects. A clear policy implication is that agricultural Liberalization." ll'orld Bank EconomicReuiew. protection is likely to be much less effective in reduc- Hertel, Thomas NV., Nlaros Ivanic, Paul IPreckel. John Cranfield, ing rural poverty in the long term than in the short term. and Will NMartin. 2003. "Short- versus Long-Run Implications Quantitative analysis undertaken or underpinned by of Trade Liberalization for lvovertv in Three Developing Coun- this project has provided quantitative estimates provid- tries." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85(5): ing support for particular reforms, particularly the inclu- 1299-306. sion of industrial products in the negotiations. Hoekman, Bernard, and Will NMartin, eds. 2001. De-reloping (oun- Extensions of the work on tariff preferences were tries andthe IW'TO:A Pro -A ctive Agenda. Oxford: Blackw-cll. prcsented at a WTrO technical seminar on tariff prefer- . 2001. "The New International 'I'rade Agenda and the ences and theilr itilization on Nlarch 31, 2004. And results WTO." Special issue of Review of International Econo,nics on the short- and long-run effects of trade reform on (May). pov erty were presented at the summer meetings of the Ingco, Mierlinda, and L. Alan Winters. 2004. AgricultureandtheVeAw American Agricultural Economics Association in 2003. Trade Agenda. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Will Markusen, James R., Thomas F Rutherford, and David 'Tarr. 1999. Nlartin (xvmartin1@wvorldbank.org) and Bernard Hoek- "Foreign Direct Investment in Services and the Domestic Mar- man. With WNVarxvick N IcKibbin, Australian National tJni- ket for Expertise." Paper presented at the Second Annual Con- versity; Joseph 1Franyois, Erasmus tTniversity; and ference on Global General Economic Modeling, Panel Session 'I'homas W Hertel, Purdue Utniversity. on the WTO's Nlillennium Round, Funen, Denmark, June. NMartin, Will, and Thomas W Hertel. 1999. "Developing Country Reports Interests in Liberalizing Manufactures Trade." Paper pre- Anderson, Kvnm, and Anna Strtut. 1999. "AgricultuLre and the sented at the Second Annual Conference on Global General NV''O: Next Steps." lvaper presented at the Second Annual Con- Economic Modeling, Panel Session on the WTO's Nlillen- terence on Global General Economic NModeling, Panel Session nium Round, Funen, Denmark, June. on the VT'O's \lillennium Round, l'uncn, Denmark, June. Martin, Will, and Nlari Pangestu, eds. 2003. Options for Global \ndcrson. KIy m., Betina D)imaranan, Joseph Fran,cois, 'I'homas W. 7rade Refonn:A ticwfromtheAsia-Parifr. Cambridge: Cambridge 1-ertel, lBernard Ilooekman, andl Will Nlartin. 2001. "Tlhel Cost IUniversity l'ress. Internotionol Economics 101 McKibbin, Warwick. 1999. "Trade Liberalization in a Dynamic Trade Research Relating to the Doha Setting." Paper presented at the Second Annual Conference Development Round on Global General Economic Modeling, Panel Session on the WTO's Millennium Round, Funen, Denmark, June. As the World Trade Organization's (WTO) ministerial Robinson, Sherman, and Zhi Wang. 1999. "Capturing the Impli- meeting in Cancun approached, a growing demand cations of Services 'Trade Liberalization." Paper presented at emerged for a better understanding-and for a better the Second Annual Conference on Global General Economic quantification-of the likely effect of Doha Development NModeling, Panel Session on the WTO's Millennium Round, Round proposals on developing countries, particularly Funen, Denmark, June. low-income countries. This research initiative was Warren, Anthony, and C. Findlay. 1999. "Measuring Impediments intended to help fill that gap and to provide developing to 'Irade in Services." Paper presented at the Second Annual countries with negotiation strategies consistent with Conference on Global General Economic Modeling, Panel their development objectives. Session on the WTO's Millennium Round, Funen, Denmark, The initiative launched a series of related analytic and June. empirical studies, undertaken by World Bank staff in close collaboration with academics in developing and indus- Trade Policy and Development trial countries. Analytic studies helped in understanding what was at stake, while empirical studies helped in This study investigates how product variety in the exports understanding how much was at stake. of a country affects aggregate growth in that country The research led to the conclusion that a more flex- through its impact on productivity. The study has con- ible WTO system is needed, one that can accommo- structed product variety indexes, then related the indexes date the specific needs of each member country. A to the GDP of 40 countries in a GDP function framework. rethinking of WTO's special and differential treatment The final analysis involves estimating a system of equa- is crucial. The same is true for market access. tions with nonlinear cross-equation restrictions. The There is no area in which developing countries will main data sources are the World Bank's World Develop- either all benefit or all lose from a move toward liberal- ment Indicators 2003 (Washington, D.C., 2003) and U.S. ization. Measures of the effects of liberalization need to customs statistics. be country specific. But a WTO agreement that would The study is still exploring the empirical relation- reduce border barriers to trade in agriculture (not nec- ship between product variety in exports and productiv- essarily subsidies) is likely to benefit developing coun- ity growth. The findings are expected to deepen the tries as a group (though Mauritania, for example, would understanding of how trade leads to growth in an lose given its import and export bundle). In services, bind- economy in ways beyond the known channels such as ing commitments in mode 4 (allowing people to move economies of scale or specialization. temporarily into a country for the purpose of providing The project will produce a policy-oriented summary services) are likely to benefit many developing countries paper reporting its results, to be presented at the 2004 (such as India). meetings of the American Economic Association in San The research has assisted developing countries in Diego. identifying their interests in the context of the Doha Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Development Agenda and exploring the development Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org) and implications of alternative options for multilateral rules Hiau Looi Kee. With Robert Feenstra, University of on Doha issues. The main instruments for disseminat- California at Davis and National Bureau of Economic ing results to policymakers were the World Bank's Global Research. Economic Prospects 2003 (Washington, D.C., 2002) and GlobalEconomic Prospects 2004 (Washington, D.C., 2003). These were accompanied by a series of conferences, 102 International Economics seminar presentations, and high-level meetings with Anderson, Kym, Bernard Hoekman, and Anna Strutt. 2001. "Agri- policymakers in developing and industrial countries. culture and the WTO: Next Steps." Review, of International The research also provided input into several video- Economics 9(2): 192-214. conferences organized by the World Bank Institute for Anderson, Kym, Betina Dimaranan, Joseph Fran,ois, Thomas W developing country delegations that were to participate Hertel, Bernard Hoekman, and Will Martin. 2002. "The Cost in the Cancun ministerial meeting. of Rich (and Poor) Country Protection to Developing Coun- The initiative has created databases that are now pub- tries." Journal of Afncan Economies 10(3): 227-57. licly available, including databases on bilateral trademark Baffes, John. 2003. "Cotton Market Setting Policies, Issues, and registration, domestic agricultural support, and export Facts." Policy Research Working Paper 3218. World Bank, subsidies. The databases are available on request and will Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C. be posted on the Web at http://worldbank.orgitrade. Baffes, John, and Harry de Gorter. 2003. "Decoupling Support to Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Agriculture: An Economic Analysis and the Review of Expe- Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org), Will rience." Paper presented at the Annual World Bank Conference Martin, and David Tarr; and World Bank Institute, on Development Economics, Paris, May 15-16. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Division Bagwell, Kyle, Petros Mavroidis, and Robert Staiger. Forthcom- -Philip English. With Keith Maskus; Edward Chisanga, ing. The Case for Tradable Remedies in WTO Dispute Settlement. Zambia representative to the World Trade Organization; World Bank Working Paper. Washington, D.C. Moctar Fall, International Federation for Alternative Beghin, John, and Ataman Aksoy. 2003. "Agricultural Trade and Trade, Senegal; Alan Deardorff, University of Michi- the Doha Round: Preliminary Lessons from Commodiry Stud- gan; Anirudh Shingal, Simon Evenett, and Savita ies." Paper presented at the Annual World Bank Conference Narasimham, World Trade Institute; Binyam Taddesse on Development Economics, Paris, May 15-16. and Kishore Gawande, Texas A&M University; Bhattasali, Deepak, Shantong Li, and Will Martin, eds. 2004. China Constantine Michalopoulos; Kamal Saggi, Southern and the WTO: Accession, Policy Reform, and Poverty Reduction Methodist University; L. Alan Winters, University of Strategies. New York: Oxford tiniversity Press. Sussex; Philip Schuler; Randeep Rathindran, Utsav Brenton, Paul. 2003. "Integrating the Least Developed Countries Kumar, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, University of Mary- into the World Trading System: The Current Impact of EU land; Robert Staiger, University of Wisconsin; Vlad Preferences under Everything but Arms." Policy Research Manole; Celine Carrere, CERDI-CNRS; Ileana Cristina Working Paper 3018. World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Eco- Neagu; JoAnne Feeney, University of Albany; Krista nomic Management Network, Washington, D.C. Lucenti, University of Berne; Yanling Wang, Georgetown Brenton, Paul, and Takako Ikezuki. 2004. "WTO Accession. University; Ditry Manakov, Infomost, Moscow; Policy Reform, and Poverty Reduction: An Overview." Grishankov Dmitry Eduardovitch, Center of Insurance World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Information, Moscow; Sergey Makarevich and Thomas D.C. Rutherford, University of Colorado at Boulder; Tamara . Forthcoming. "The Initial and Potential Impact of Pref- Novikova, Central Marine Research and Design Institute, erential Access to the U.S. Market under the African Growth Moscow; Nadezhda Ivanova, International Center for and Opportunity Act." Policy Research Working Paper. World Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva; Vladimir Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Klimushin, Central Science Research Institute on Telecom- Chaudhuri, Sumanta, Aaditya Mattoo, and Richard Self. 2004. munication, Moscow; and Copenhagen Economics ApS. "Moving People to Deliver Services: How Can the Wl'O Help?" Policy Research Working Paper 3238. World Bank, Reports Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Aksoy, Ataman, and John Beghin, eds. Forthcoming. Global Cox, Tom, and Yong Zhu. 2003. "Assessing World Dairy Markets Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries. New York: Oxford and Policy Reforms: Implications for Developing Countries." University Press. World Bank, Washington, D.C. International Economics 103 Diop, Ndiame, John Beghin, and Mirvat Sewadeh. 2004. "Ground- Hoekman, Bernard, and Petros C. Mavroidis. 2003. "Economic nut Policies, Global Trade Dynamics, and the Impact of Trade Development, Competition Policy, and the W'T'O." Journal of Liberalization." Policy Research Working Paper 3226. World World Trade 37(1): 1-28. Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Hoekman, Bernard, and Kamal Saggi. 2000. "Assessing the Case International Trade Group, Washington, D.C. for Extending WTO Disciplines on Investment-Related Evenett, Simon, and Bernard Hoekman. 2002. "Transparency in Policies." Journal of Economic Integration 15(4): 588-610. Government Procurement: What Can We Expect from Inter- . 2003. "Trading Market Access for Competition Policy national Trade Agreements?" In Sue Arrowsmith and Martin Enforcement." Policy Research Working Paper 3188. NVorld Trybus, eds., Public Procurement: The Continuing Revolution. The Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Hague: Kluwer Law International. Hoekman, Bernard, Philip English, and Aaditya Mattoo, eds. 2002. - Forthcoming. "Government Procurement: Market Access, Development, Trade, and the WTO: A Handbook. Washington, Transparency, and Multilateral Trade Rules." European D.C.: World Bank. Journal of Political Economy. Hoekman, Bernard, Thomas W. Hertel, and Will Mfartin. 2002. , eds. Forthcoming. The WTO, the Doha Round, and Devel- "Developing Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotia- opment. New York: Oxford University Press. tions." World Bank Research Observer 17(1): 113-40. Finger, J. Nlichael. 2002. TheDohaAgendaandDevelopment. Manila: Hoekman, Bernard, Keith Maskus, and Kamal Saggi. 2004. "'l'rans- Asian Development Bank. fer of Technology to Developing Countries: Unilateral and Fink, Carsten, Bernard Hoekman, and Carlos Primo-Braga. 2002. Multilateral Policy Options." World Bank, Developmcnt "Telecommunications-Related Services: Market Access, Deeper Research Group, Washington, D.C. Integration, and the WTO." In Paolo Guerrieri and Hans- Hoekman, Bernard, Constantine Michalopoulos, and L. Alan Win- Eckart Scharrer, eds., Trade, Investment, and Competition Policies ters. Forthcoming. "Special and Differential Treatment of Devel- in the Global Economy: The Case of the International Telecommuni- oping Countries: Moving Forward after Cancun." WllorldEconomy. cations Regime. Baden-Baden: Nomos. Hoekman, Bernard, Francis Ng, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2002. Francois, Joseph, and Will Martin. 2003. "Formula Approaches to "Eliminating Excessive Tariffs on Exports of Least Devel- Market Access Negotiations." WorldEconomy 26(1): 1-28. oped Countries." IVorldBank Economic Review 16(1): 1-22. Forthcoming. "Commercial Policy, Bindings, and Market . Forthcoming. "Reducing Agricultural Tariffs versus Domes- Access." European Economic Review. tic Support: What Is More Important for Developing Countries?" Fran,ois, Joseph, Hans van Meijl, and Frank van Tongeren. 2003. World Bank Economic Review. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the lanchovichina, Elena, Aaditya Mattoo. and Marcelo Olarreaga. Doha Round." CEPR Discussion Paper 4032. Centre for Eco- 2001. "Unrestricted Market Access for Sub-Saharan Africa: nomic Policy Research, London. How Much Is It Worth and Who Pays?" Policv Research Work- Hoekman, Bernard. 2002. "Strengthening the Global Trade Archi- ing Paper 2595. World Bank, Development Research Group, tecture for Development: The Post-Doha Agenda." World Washington, D.C. TradeReview I(I): 23-45. Lederman, Daniel, and ,aglar Ozden. 2003. "U.S. 'Irade .Forthcoming. "Developing Countries and the WTO Doha Preferences: All Are Not Created Equal." World Bank. Round: Market Access, Rules, and Differential Treatment." Development Research Group, Washington, I).C. Journal of Economic Integration. Martin, Will, and Mari Pangcstu, eds. 2003. Options for Global ,ed. 2000. "Developing Countries and the Next Round of Trade Reform:A View from the Asia-Pac fic. Cambridge: Cambridge WTO Negotiations." Special issue of IVorld Economy. University Press. Hoekman, Bernard, and Will Martin, eds. 2001. Developing Coun- Martin, Will, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, and Vlad Nl\anole. tries and the IVTO: A Pro-Active Agenda. Oxford: Blackwell. 2003. "Is the Devil in the Details? Assessing thc WVelfare Impli- - . 2001. "The New International Trade Agenda and the cations of Agricultural and Nonagricultural 'Irade Reforms." WTO." Special issue of Review of International Economics Paper presented at the Conference on Global 'Irade Reform, (May). The Hague. 104 International Economics Niaskus, Keith. 2002. "Regulatory Standards in the WTO: Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Comparing Intellectual Property Rights with Competition Roheim, A. Cathy. 2003. "Trade Liberalization in Fish Products: Policy, Environmental Protection, and Core Labor Standards." Impacts on Sustainability of International Nlarkets and Fish Wlorld 7-rade Reuiew' 1(2): 135-52. Resources." World Bank, Washington, D.C. Nlattoo, Aaditya. 2003. "Shaping Future Rules for Trade in Wailes, J. Eric. 2003. "Rice Global Trade, Protectionist Policies, Scrvices: Lcssons from the GATS." In Takatoshi Ito and Anne and the Impact of Trade Liberalization." World Bank, Wash- 0. Krueger, eds., Trade in Services in the Asia-Pacific Region. ington, D.C. Chicago: ITnivcrsity of Chicago Press. World Bank. 2004. "Textile and ClothingPolicy Note: Implications Nlattoo. Aaditya, and Antonia Carzaniga, eds. 2003. M7ovingPeople for Pakistan of Abolishing Textile and Clothing Export to DeliverSercvices. New York: Oxford tJniversity Press. Quotas." Washington, D.C. Nlattoo, Aaditva, and Nlarcelo Olarreaga. 2004. "Reciprocity across Mlodes of Supply in the WTO: A Negotiating Formula." Trade, Standards, and Regulatory Reforms International Trade Journal 18: 1-24. Mlattoo, Aaditya, and Sacha Wuinsch. 2004. "Securing Openness At the forefront of research and policy discussions on trade of Cross-Border Trade in Services." World Bank, Develop- is the relationship between trade, technical regulations, ment Research Group, NWashington, D.C. and voluntary standards. Such issues as the appropriate Mlattoo, Aaditya, Devesh Roy, and Arvind Subramanian. 2002. levels of protection for food safety and the costs of test- "The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and Its Rules of ing and certification regulations are becoming increasingly Origin: Generosity tJndermined?" Policy and Research Work- critical for developing countries as tariffs decline and as ing P'aper 2908. World Bank, Development Research Group, these countries seek to strengthen their industrial per- WVashington, D.C. formance, increase their agricultural production, and Nlesscrlin, Patrick. 2002. "Agriculture in the Doha Agenda." expand their export opportunities. This project explores Policy Research Working Paper 3009. World Bank, Develop- how standards and technical regulations can affect exports ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. from developing countries and how multilateral policies Mitchell. Donald. 2003. "Sugar Policies: Opportunity for Change." should be formulated in reference to the international IPolicy Research Working Paper 3222. World Bank, Develop- standards. It also aims to help build the capacity of ment Prospects Group, Washington, D.C. developing countries in research and policymaking to Nlitchcll, I)onald, and NMyles Nlielke. 2003. "The Global Wheat facilitate trade. NMarket." WVorld Bank, Development Prospects Group, Wash- The research quantifies the impact of standards on ington, D.C. trade and development, focusing on developing countries. ()larrcaga, Mlarcelo, and C,aglar Ozden. Forthcoming. "AGOA and The analysis is based on an econometric approach using Apparel: NWho Captures the 'Tariff Rent in the Presence of cross-country data covering bilateral trade flows between Preferential Nlarket Access?" Wl,orldEconomy. developing and OECD countries and cross-firm data Ozden, (,aglar, and Eric Reinhardt. 2003. "First Do No Harm: The covering 690 firms in 17 developing countries. Effect of I nilateral Trade Preferences on Developing Coun- Several studies compare the impact of different food try Exports." WNorld Bank, Development Research Group, safety standards, estimating the potential gains to African Wskashington, D.C. exporting countries if the importing countries followed 2003. "I'he Perversity of Preferences: The Generalized the Codex standards rather than the more stringent stan- System of Preferences and Developing Country Trade Policies, dards followed by most European countries. A study on 1976-2000." Policy Research NWorking Paper 2955. World Bank, aflatoxin standards and trade in nuts, cereals, and dried Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. and preserved fruits estimated the potential gains for nine Ozden, (,aglar, and Gunjan Sharma. 2004. "Price Effects of Pref- African exporting countries at $670 million annually. A erential NMarket Access: The Caribbean Basin Initiative and the study on chlorpyrifos pesticide standards and banana Apparel Sector." Policy Research Working Paper 3244. World trade estimated the potential gains for four African lnternolioniol Economics I 05 exporting countries at $410 million. And a study on Reports veterinary drug standards and beef trade estimated the Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Barbara Kotschwar, and John S. Wilson. 2001. potential gains for African exporting countries at $160 "Trade Policy, Standards, and Development in Central Amer- million. Another study is empirically estimating the cost ica." Policy Research Working Paper 2576. World Bank, Devel- to developing country firms of complying with foreign opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. standards and the effect of standards on export . 2002. "Trade and Standards: A Look at Central America." ability. World Economy 25(7): 991-1018. The project has provided advisory services to devel- Maskus, Keith E., and John S. Wilson. 2001. Quantifyingthe Impact oping countries through World Bank missions. And it of Technical Barriers to Trade: Can It Be Done.? Ann Arbor: has contributed to a policy-based loan in the Arab Repub- University of Michigan Press. lic of Egypt, a public policy technical assistance loan in Maskus, Keith E., John S. Wilson, and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2000. Panama, and private sector and export competitive- "Quantifying the Impact of Technical Barriers to Trade: A ness projects in Honduras, Mozambique, Peru, and FrameworkforAnalysis." Policy Research WorkingPaper2512. Uganda. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Results have been presented at seminars and con- Otsuki, Tsunehiro, John S. Wilson, and Mirvat Sewadeh. 2000. ferences for donor and government officials and trade and "Measuring the Effect of Food Safety Standards on African development economists and practitioners. These include Exports to Europe." In Kym Anderson, Cheryl McRae, and presentations at a meeting of the World Trade Organi- David Wilson, eds., The Economics of QuaranfineandtheSPSAgree- zation Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (Feb- ment. Adelaide: Centre for International Economic Studies; ruary 2000), a meeting of the World Trade Organization and Canberra: AFFA Biosecurity. Committee on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards . 2001. "A Race to the Top? A Case Study of Food Safety (June 2000), an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Standards and African Exports." Policy Research Working (APEC) seminar on trade facilitation in Singapore Paper2563.WorldBank,DevelopmentResearchGroup,Wash- (September 2000), an Asian Development Bank Institute ington, D.C. seminar (February 2002), and a trade training seminar at . 2001. "Saving Two in a Billion: Quantifying the Trade the U.S. Agency for International Development (June Effect of European Food Safety Standards on African Exports." 2003). They also include presentations in Panama City Food Policy 26(5): 495-514. (June 2000), Nairobi (July 2001), and Tokyo (March .2001. "What Price Precaution? European Harmonization 2002) and at Georgetown University (June 2002) and the of Aflatoxin Regulations and African Groundnut Exports." World Trade Organization (July 2003). European Review of Agricultural Economics 28(3): 263-83. Research findings have been used in several World Roberts, Donna, Laurian Unnevehr, Julie Caswell, Ian Sheldon, Bank training courses, including a course on standards John Wilson, Tsunehiro Otsuki, and David Orden. 2001. and agricultural trade (May 2002) and two courses on trade "Agriculture in the WTO: The Role of Product Attributes in facilitation (June 2003 and March 2004). the Agricultural Negotiations." IATRC Commissioned Paper The project has developed a database on standards and 17. International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, trade based on a firm-level survey in 17 countries and Pullman, Wash. will make the database available on the Web in 2004. Wilson, John S. 2000. "Standards, Developing Countries, and the Results from the study are available at http://www Global Trade System." In World Bank, GlobalEconomic Prospects .worldbank.org/trade/standards. 2001. Washington, D.C. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-John . 2002. "The Economic Impact of Trade Facilitation: Devel- S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org) and Tsunehiro opment Perspectives in the Asia Pacific." Paper presented at Otsuki. With Keith Maskus and Xiaoyang Chen, Uni- the Fourth Asia Development Forum, Seoul, November 3-5. versity of Colorado at Boulder. . 2002. "Liberalizing Trade in Agriculture: Developing Countries in Asia and the Post-Doha Agenda." Policy Research 106 International Economics Working Paper 2804. World Bank, Development Research . 2003. "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: Group, Washington, D.C. A New Approach to Quantifying the Impact." WVorld Bank - . 2002. "The Role of Trade Policies in Economic Devel- Economic Review 17(3): 367-89. opment." InternationalDevelopmentJournal(NMav). . 2003. "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: 2002. "Standards, Regulation, and Trade: WTO Rules Measuring the Impact." Policy Research Working Paper 2988. and Developing Country Concerns." In Bernard Hoekman, World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Aaditya Mattoo, and Philip English, eds., Development, Trade, . 2004. "Assessing the Potential Benefit of Trade Facilitation: and the WTO. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. A Global Perspective." Policy Research Working Paper 3224. 2003. "Trade-Related Technical Assistance." Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. presented at the International Forum on Trade Facilitation: Wilson, John S., 'Isunehiro Otsuki, and Baishali Majumdar. 2003. Simpler Procedures for World Trade Growth, UInited Nations "Balancing Food Safety and Risk: Do Drug Residue Limits Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Mlay 27-31. Affect International Trade in Beef?" Journalof International Trade Wilson, John S., and VictorO. Abiola, eds. 2003. Standards and Global and Economic Development 12(4). Trade:A VoiceforAfrica. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. . 2003. "Food Safety Scare or Reasonable Risk: Do Drug Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2001. "Food Safety Reg- Residue Limits Affect International 'Trade in Beef?" Agricul- ulations and Global Food Trade Patterns: Winners and Losers tural and Rural Development NVorking Paper 8. NVorld Bank, in a Fragmented System." Paper presented at the annual meet- Washington, D.C. ing of the American Agricultural Economics Association, Wilson, John S., Tsunehiro Otsuki, and Mirvat Sewadeh. 2002. Chicago, August 5-8. "Dirty Exports and Environmental Regulation: Do Standards .2001. "Global ''rade and Food Safety: Winners and Losers NIatter to 'frade?" Policy Research Working Paper 2806. NVorld in a Fragmented System." Policy Research Working Paper Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also 2689. World Bank, Development Research Group, NVashington, presented at the annual meeting of the American Agricultural D.C. Economics Association, Chicago, August 5-8, 2001.) . 2002. "To Spray or Not to Spray: Pesticides, Banana Wilson, John S.. Catherine Mann, Yuen Pau Woo, Nizar Assanie, Exports, and Food Safety." Policy Research Working Paper 2805. and Inbom Choi. 2002. "Trade Facilitation: A Development World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Perspective in the Asia-Placific Region." Asia-Pacific Economic - 2003. "Balancing Risk Reduction and Benefits from Trade Cooperation Secretariat, Singapore. in Setting Standards." In Laurian Unnevehr, ed., Food Safety in Food Security and Food Trade. 2020 Focus 10. Washington, Trade, Trademarks, and Reputation D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. - 2003. "Food Safety and Trade: Winners and Losers in a Reputation in foreign markets is widely recognized as a Nonharmonized World." Journalof EconomicIntegration 18(2): major determinant of a country's export performance. For 266-87. developing country firms, rarely able to offer a histori- Wilson, John S., and Yuen Pau Woo. 2000. "Cutting through Red cal record of reliable trade performance, the use of trade- Tape:NewDirectionsforAPEC's'FradeFacilitationAgenda." marks becomes a crucial mechanism for establishing Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, Vancouver. their reputation and thus protecting their products and Wilson, John S., Carsten Fink, and Shweta Bagai. 2003. "Reduc- business practices from free riding by competitors. ing Trade Costs in a New Era of Security." In World Bank, Global A potential problem with trademark protection is that Economic Prospects 2004. Washington, D.C. it may be subject to political capture. Allowing some Wilson, John S., Catherine L. Mann, and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2003. firms but not others to register their trademarks-or "Trade Facilitation and Capacity Building: A Global Perspec- applying different standards in enforcing trademark tive." Paper presented at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooper- law-can confer an important commercial advantage. ation Capacity Building Workshop on Measuring Nontariff Discrimination in trademark registration against foreign Barriers, Bangkok, April 10. firms exporting to the local market can thus become International Economics 107 another tool of trade protection-a "behind the border" premium, using currency forwards and spot rates. barrier to trade. Country risk is measured by the spread of foreign 'This project explores the extent to which discrimi- currency sovereign bonds over bonds issued by nation in trademark registration has been used to hinder Germany and the tlnited States. exports from other countries, focusing the empirical The study addresses two main policy cltestions: What application on China, Hong Kong (China), India, and is the credibility of exchange rate regimes? And why do South Africa. The study combines a data set of cross- countries borrow short term despite its risks? country trademark registrations and applications, drawn The work on currency risk explores major dimcn- from the World Intellectual Property Organization data- sions of the currency premium and characterizes the base, with trade, production, and tariff data for more behavior of this premium in two currency boards-those than 100 country pairs and 30 industries. Using a model of Argentina and Hong Kong (China)-able to maintain of asymmetric information between buyers and sellers, a hard peg to the U.S. dollar for a long time. 'l'he research it then explores the extent to which governments (or shows that no matter how hard exchange rates are 0 , l1. trademark offices) have incentives to discriminate against they are not fully credible. Mloreover, their credibility foreign firms. Finally, it tests the implications of the declines significantly at times of turmoil and with cer- model using data for the four developing economies. tain policy actions. The study has found several patterns in the bilateral reg- The work on country risk proposes a new explanation istration of trademarks. For example, OECD countries of why countries rely on short-term debt and expose dominate the global market of trademark registration. But themselves to liquidity crises, arguing that borrowing in low-income countries non-OECD countries represent short term is cheaper than borrowing long term. 'To do as much as 20 percent of all foreign trademark registrations. so, it presents a model that describes the optimal risk shar- In addition, the study has found prima facie and more ing between the debtor country and bondholders. In structural evidence that in China trademark registration addition, it estimatcs the relative cost of borrowing at does not seem to be used as a "behind the border" bar- different maturities by constructing a new database on rier to discriminate against foreign firms. bond prices for eight emerging market economies Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Nlexico, the Russian Fed- Marcelo Olarreaga (molarreaga@worldbank.org), Carsten eration, Turkey, UIruguay, and Rep6blica Bolivariana de Fink, Beata Smarzynska, and Ekaterina Krivonos. With Venezuela) and two referencc countries (Giermany and Eugenia Baroncelli, University of Bologna. the ITnited States), from the early 1990s until the present. Reports T'he analysis shows that the cost of issuing long-term Baroncelli, Eugenia, Carsten Fink, and Beata Smarzynska. Forth- debt is higher than the cost of issuing short-term debt on coming. "The Global Distribution of 'rademarks: Some average, and that this difference is greater during Stvlized Facts." lUorldEronomy. periods of financial turmoil than during tranquil times. Baroncelli, Eugenia, Ekaterina Krivonos, and Marcelo Olarreaga. NMoreover, it shows that there is a negative correlation 20(4. "1 radcmark Protection or Protectionism?" Policy Research between the relative cost of long-term borrowing and the Working Paper 3214. World Bank, Development Research maturity of new debt issues. Emerging market economies Group, Washington, D.C. issue relativelv more short-term debt during periods of financial turmoil and wait for tranquil times to issue Understanding Country and Currency Risk long-term debt. 'T'he research has been presented at the 2002 annual T'his research studies the behavior and determinants of meetings of the American Economic Association in W/N7ash- currency risk and country risk in emerging market ington, D.C.: the National Bureau of Economic Research economies. Currency risk is measured by the currency (NBER) Inter-American Seminar on Economics in 108 International Economirs Cambridge, NMassachusetts, in 2001; the NBER Summer world stability) as well as for the global trading system. Institute in 2002; the Latin American Meeting of the To help Russia recognize where further reform and WTO Econometric Society in Buenos Aires; meetings of the commitments can be useful to its growth, development, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association in and poverty reduction, this study explores potential NMadrid, NMontevideo, and Puebla (Mexico); the World effects of WTO accession for the Russian economy. Bank-lntcrnational NMonetary Fund Joint Research Sem- To carry out the study, a comparative static model of inar; New York University; the Federal Reserve Bank of the Russian economy was developed. 'Fhe model includes Dallas; and UTniversitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona. both competitive and imperfectly competitive scctors. The project produced two databases, one containing One innovative aspect of the model is that it assesses the various measures of currency risk at different maturities impact of foreign direct investment with Dixit-Stiglitz and the other containing information on bond spreads at productivity effects in the service sectors in an applied different maturities. setting. In addition, the project produced estimates of the Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, ad valorem equivalents of barriers to foreign direct invest- Office of the Chief Economist-Luis Serven (lserven@ ment in several Russian service sectors-banking, worldbank.org) and Mlarina Halac; and Development insurance, telecommunications, and maritime and air Research Group, NIacroeconomics and Growth-Sergio transport services-based on a survey of Russian rescarch Schmukler. With Leonor Coutinho Gouveia; Fernando institutes on the regulatory environment in each sector. Broner, l Univ%ersity of NMaryland; Guido Lorenzoni, Prince- International cross-country regressions were then used ton University; Andrea Bubula, Columbia University; to determine the effect of WTO commitments to liber- Tatiana Didier, Nlassachusetts Institute of Technology; alize foreign direct investment in these key areas. and Yave Sakho, LUniversity of Pennsylvania. Analysis of the effect of WTO accession suggests that Russia would gain through better access to export mar- Reports kets, better resource allocation, better access to modern 13roner. F ernando, (Guido Lorenzoni, and Sergio Schmukler. 2003. technologies resulting from greater competition in goods "Nh\ Do Emerging Mlarkets Borrow Short 'Term?" CREI markets, and, most important, better access to high- b'orking Plaper. Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Centre de Recerca quality business services as a result of lowering barriers en Econonmia Internacional, Barcelona. http://www.econ.upf.es/ to foreign direct investment in services. Estimates show crei/research/wpapers/wpapers.html. that WTO accession would lead to gains equal to about Schmukler, Sergio, and Luis Seren. 2002. Pricing Currency Risk: 7.4 percent of consumption in the medium run and up Fti,-ts adPnl'ule.sfromn Currenc Boards. NBER Working Paper to 24 percent in the long run, taking into account the 9047. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic potential positive effect on the investment climate. Research. (Also issued as Policy Research WVorking Paper 2815, Export-intensive sectors would expand the most, while \World Bank, Development Research Group, WN'ashington. D.C., sectors that do little exporting and are relatively protected 2002.) would lose in the short to medium run. Foreign direct - 2002. "Pricing Currency Risk under Currency Boards." investment in the business service sectors would be Jonr-nal of lDee/opmentEconwoics 69(2): 367-91. likely to increase the demand for labor in these sectors and present opportunities for Russian firms to form joint The World Trade Organization ventures with multinationals, but also induce a decline and the Russian Federation in wholly owned Russian firms that do not form joint ven- tures with multinationals. I'he Russian Federation is the last large economy remain- Given the importance of telecommunications ser- ing outside the World Trade Organization (WTO). Its vices, a separate analysis assessed the effect of telecom- accession to the T'l'O is considered important for the munications reform within the WTro. '1'he analysis country's economic growth and stability (and thus for estimates that lowering barriers to foreign direct invest- Internationol Economics 109 ment in telecommunications would lead to substantial Russia, dual pricing of natural gas is now generally gains for the Russian economy, equal to almost 1 percent acknowledged to be in Russia's interest. of consumption, with potentially much greater gains in Results have been discussed with the Russian the long run. government. In addition, the general equilibrium work Since the pricing of natural gas presents a major issue has been presented at two conferences organized by the for the accession discussions, another analysis assessed Center for Economic and Financial Research in Moscow; the costs and benefits for those affected. This analysis a conference organized by the Russian NMinistry of ELco- finds that Russia has market power in the European nomic Development and Trade and the International market and is optimizing the price and quantity it sells Labour Organization in St. Petersburg; the U.S.-Russia there. In the domestic market, where Gazprom retains Business Council in Washington, D.C.; the U.S. Cham- a near monopoly, the analysis suggests that allowing ber of Commerce in Moscow; and a World Bank Insti- Gazprom to raise its natural gas prices to the full long- tute seminar in Moscow. Several more presentations are run marginal costs would produce benefits to Russia of planned, including at the Global Trade Analysis Project about $1.24 billion a year. conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2004. The analysis also reveals that, from Russia's per- Data and papers from the project are available on the spective, there is no economic rationale for unifying its Web at http://www.worldbank.org/trade. domestic and export prices of natural gas. If Russia were Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-David to sell natural gas to Europe at the full long-run marginal 'Farr (dtarr@worldbank.org), Ekaterina Krivonos, and cost plus transport costs, it would lose $5 billion-7.5 billion Oleksandr Shepotylo; and Europe and Central Asia a year-while European consumers would gain even more Region, Infrastructure and Energy Services Department ($7.5 billion-10 billion a year). If Russia instead were to raise -Peter Trhomson. With Thomas Rutherford, University its domestic prices to those it charges in Europe, Russian of Colorado; Jesper Jensen, Copenhagen Economics, industry would incur large adjustment costs. Absorbing the Denmark; Fukunari Kimura and Mitsuyo Ando, Keio cost increases would induce Russian industry to switch to UTniversity, Japan; and Takamune Fujii, Aichi UTniversity, alternative fuels and produce less gas-intensive products Japan. that cannot be justified on the basis of Russia's compara- tive advantage. If Gazprom were to adopt its optimal "two- Reports part tariff," the efficient world price would be achieved and Jensen, JesperT Thomas Rutherford, and David 'Iarr. 2003. "Econ- Gazprom would increase its profits, but this involves omvowide and Sector Effects of Russia's Accession to the WTO." significant long-term risks of lost market share. NVorld Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C. The general equilibrium analysis is the first to show . 2003. "'Telecommunications Reform within Russia's Acces- clear and substantial gains from the endogenous pro- sion to the WTO." WVorld Bank, D)evelopment Research Group, ductivity effects of liberalizing foreign direct investment Washington, D.C. in the service sector. Thus it provides intellectual back- Kimura, Fukunari, Nlitsuvo Ando, and 'Iakamune Fujii. 2004. ground for the "behind the border" agenda that the "Financial Services Sectors." World Bank's Trade Group is emphasizing in its .2004. "NlaritimeandAir'lransportationServiceSectors." dialogue with client countries and operations staff. The . 2004. "Telecommunication Services Sectors." gas pricing analysis has been persuasive in changing the Tarr, David. and Peter Thomson. 2003. "The NMcrits of Dual debate in Washington, D.C.; while many had assumed Plricing of Russian Natural Gas." World Bank, I)evelopment that a unified domestic and export price was optimal for Research Group, WVashington, D.C. 110 International Economics Domestic Finance Bank Concentration and Competition Another important finding is that concentration is not a good proxy for the overall competitive environment, Competition policies in banking may involve difficult and its impact often depends on the regulatory and insti- tradeoffs. While greater competition may enhance the tutional framework. Thus policymakers would do bet- efficiency of banks, with positive implications for eco- ter to focus on improving the regulatory and institutional nomic growth, it may also destabilize banks, with costly environment and ownership structure than to try to repercussions for the economv. Similarly, while greater reduce concentration in banking. competition may produce banks that enable small firms The findings have been disseminated to policy audi- to exercise their entrepreneurial energies, it may also yield ences through training programs, operational support less stable banks prone to devastating crises. activities, and presentations to the World Bank's Finance This research project explores these issues by assess- Sector Board (November 2003). They were also ing the effect of bank concentration, regulations, owner- presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank ship, and institutional development on efficiency, financial Concentration and Competition, held April 3-4, 2003, in stability, and firms' access to finance. The research is both Washington, D.C., and attended by academics, World theoretical and empirical, with the empirical work using Bank and International Monetary Fund staff, and cross-country macroeconomic, firm-level, and bank-level policymakers from more than 30 developing countries. data. The project includes regional studies-on Africa. The conference papers are forthcoming in a special issue Europe, and Latin America-exploring the impact of bank of theJournalofMVoney, Credit, andBanking and are avail- concentration. The aim is to better understand the elements able on the Web, along with a database on bank con- that contribute to the level of banking competition, bench- centration around the world, at http://www.worldbank mark bank competition and concentration around the .org/research/interest/confs/bank_concentration.htm. world, and investigate the tradeoffs involved in decisions Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance- on regulatory interventions to alter market structure. Asl I Demirgii-yKunt (ademirguckunt@worldbank.org) 'There is no single, accepted measure of bank compe- and Thorsten Beck, and Trade-NMaria Soledad tition. For lack of a better measure, bank concentration is Martinez Peria; and Financial Sector Operations and often used as an indicator of bank competition. The Policy Department-Luc Laeven. With Ross Levine competitive environment is also influenced by bank and John Boyd, University of Mlinnesota; Vojislav NMak- regulations, such as restrictions on entry, exit, and bank simovic, University of NMaryland; Franklin Allen, Whar- activities, and by national institutions that govern economic ton School; Douglas Gale, New York U niversity; Allen freedom in general. The ownership structure of banks, such Berger, Joe Haubrich, and Nicola Cetorelli, Federal as the extent of state or foreign ownership in banking, and Reserve System; Charles Okeahalam, University of Wit- macroeconomic and financial conditions may also play an watersrand; Stijn Claessens, University of Amsterdam; important part. The research uses all these measures. and Ashoka NMody and Gianni de Nicol6, International Results makc it clear that, contrary to conventional Nlonetary Fund. wisdom, there are no difficult tradeoffs when it comes to bank competition. Greater competition-as captured Reports by lower entry barriers, fewer regulatory restrictions on Allen, Franklin. and Douglas Gale. 2003. "Competition and Finan- bank activities, greater banking freedom, and better cial Stability." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference overall institutional development-is good for efficiency, on Bank Concentration and Compctition, Washington, D.C., good for stabilitv, and good for firms' access to finance. April 3-4. 111 Beck, T'horsten, Ashl Demirgiy-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2003. performance and improve sector stability, this project "Bank Concentration and Crises." Paper presented at the summarized those experiences, analyzed the political World Bank Conference on Bank Concentration and Compe- economy factors that affected the choice of privatization tition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. method, and studied how postprivatization performance Beck, Thorsten, Aslh Demirgijc-Kunt, and Vojislav NMaksimovic. differed under alternative methods. The research used 2003. "BankCompetition, FinancingObstacles, and Access to a variety of approaches, designed to provide useftl Credit." PaperpresentedatrheWorldBankConferenceonBank information about when it is most fruitful to pursue Concentration and Competition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. bank privatization, how alternative transaction designs Berger, Allen, Aslh Demirgfi,-Kunt, Ross Levine, and Joe Haubrich. affect outcomes, and how to avoid common obstacles. F, orthcoming. "Bank Concentration and Competition: An Evo- The project conducted detailed country case studies lution in the Making." Journal of,1 oney, Credit, andBanking. and careful econometric analyses of bank-level panel Boyd, John H., Gianni de Nicol6, and Bruce D. Smith. 2003. data in 12 countries-Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croa- "Crises in Competitive versus Monopolistic Banking Systems." tia, the Czech Republic, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Con- Hungary, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, and Roma- centration and Competition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. nia. These 12 countries were chosen because they had Cetorelli, Nicola. 2003. "Real Effects of Bank Concentration and high levels of state ownership of banks at some point in Competition in Europe." Paper presented at the World Bank the 1990s and undertook a relatively large number of Conference on Bank Concentration and Competition, Wash- privatizations. ington, D.C., April 3-4. The country case studies were complemented by Claessens, Stijn, and Luc Laeven. 2003. "What Drives Bank Com- cross-country analyses. By examining cross-country petition? Some International Evidence." Paper presented at the variation in bank privatization, one study directly tested World Bank Conference on Bank Concentration and Compe- the political and economic factors that lead governments tirion, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. to relinquish control of banks. Others yielded policy Demirgoc--Kunt, Asli, Luc Laeven, and Ross Levine. 2003. "The conclusions about popular methods of bank privatization. Impact of Bank Regulations, Concentration, and Institutions These studies used event study methodology, bench- on Bank Margins." Paper presented at the World Bank Con- marking the share price of the acquired or acquiring ference on Bank Concentration and Competition, Washington, bank against share prices for the market as a whole and D.C., April 3-4. for a control group of banks that were not privatized. Martinez Peria. NMaria Soledad, and Ashoka Mody. 2003. "How For- The case studies and cross-country analyses support eign Participation and Market Concentration Impact Bank the conclusion that privatization, even of relatively poorly Spreads: Evidence from Latin America." Paper presented at the performing banks, improves performance over continued World Bank Conference on Bank Concentration and Compe- state ownership. But several policies reduce the bene- tition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. fits of privatization. Continued state ownership, even of Okeahalam, Charles. 2003. "Concentration in the Banking Sector minority shares, harms the performance of privatizcd of the Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa." Paper banks. In weak institutional environments share offer- presented at the NVorld Bank Conference on Bank Concentra- ings produce smaller performance gains than direct sales tion and Competition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. to strategic investors. And prohibiting foreigners from par- ticipating reduces the gains from both direct sales and Bank Privatization in Developing Countries share issue privatization. The research was presented at the World Bank Con- Countries have used a variety of methods in selling state- ference on Bank Privatization, held in Washington, D.C., owned banks to the private sector. Because the World on November 20-21, 2003. The conference papers will Bank is often asked for advice on how to design successful be published in a special issue of the Journal of Banking bank privatizations to ensure strong postprivatization and Finance. In addition, the conference findings were 112 Domesfit Finonce presented at a NWorld Bank workshop designed to inform Bonin, John P., Iftekhar Hasan, and Paul Wachtel. 2003. "Bank banking regulators and supervisors from developing Performance, Efficiency, and Ownership in Transition Coun- countries about current research. tries." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank 'I'hc conference papers are available on the Web at Privatization, Washington, D.C., November 20-21. http://www.worldbank.org/research/projects/bank Clarke, George R. G., and Robert Cull. 1999. "Why Privatize? -privatization_conference.htm. 'I'he Case of Argentina's Public Provincial Banks." Wlor/dDeve/- Responsibility: [)cvelopment Research Group, Finance opment 27(5): 867-88. -Gerard Caprio Jr. (gcaprio@worldbank.org), Trade- .2000. "Provincial Bank Privatization in Argentina: 'I'he Why, Robert Cull, and Investment Climate-George R. G. the How, and the So What." In Harvey Rosenblum, ed., Bank Clarke. With Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti, Bank of Italy; Privatization: Conference Proceedings ofa Poly Research llorkshop. John P. Bonin, Wesleyan University; Kimberly Gleason, Dallas: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Florida Atlantic University; Stephen Haber, Stanford .2001. "Bank Privatization in Argentina: A Model of Polit- tTnivcrsity; Iftekhar Hasan, Rensselaer Polytechnic Insti- ical Constraints and Differential Outcomes." Policy Research tute; Afeikhena Jerome, lUniversity of Ibadan; Shawn Working Paper 2633. World Bank, Development Research Kantor, t niversity of Arizona; William Megginson, Okla- Group, Washington, D.C. homa University; Fariborz NlIoshirian, Ulniversity of New . 2002. "Political and Economic Determinants of the Like- South Wales; Nlarcio Nakane, UJniversity of Sao Paulo; lihood of Privatizing Argentine Public Banks." Journal of LIaw Robert Nash, Wake Forest University; Mlohammed andEconomics45(1): 165-97. Omran, Arab Nlonetary Fund; Isaac Otchere, University . 2003. "Bank Privatization in Argentina: Results of the of Melbourne; M'lary Shirley, Ronald Coase Institute; Project's Pilot Study." Paper presented at the World Bank Con- William Summerhill, LTniversity of California at Los ference on Bank Privatization, Washington. D.C., November Angeles; Paul Wachtcl, New lork University; and 20-21. Jonathan Williams, I Tniversity of Wales. Clarke, George R. G., Juan Nliguel Crivelli, and Robert Cull. 2003. "fhe Impact of Bank Privatization and Foreign Entry on Reports Access to Credit in Argentina's Provinces." Paper presented at Beck, Thorsten, Juan Nliguel Crivelli, and William Summerhill. the Ninth Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Bank of Croatia, 2003. "'T'he Transformation of State Banks in Brazil." Paper pre- June 26-28. sented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Djankov, Simeon, Jan Jindra, and Leora Klapper. 2003. "Corpo- Washington, D.C., November 20-21. rate Valuation and the Resolution of Bank Insolvency in East Beck, Thorsten. Robert Cull, and Afeikhena 'T Jerome. 2003. Asia." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank "Bank Privatization and Performance: Empirical Evidence Privatization, Washington, D.C., November 20-21. from Nigeria." Paper presented at the WVorld Bank Confer- Haber, Stephen, and Shawn Kantor. 2003. "Getting Privatization ence on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., November Wrong: The Mlexican Banking System, 1991-2003." Paper 2(0-21. presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Berger, Allen N., George R. G. Clarke, Robert Cull, Leora KlIap- Washington, D.C., November 20-21. per. and Gregorv E [Idell. 2003. "Governance and the Efficiency Nfegginson, William. 2003. "'I'he Economics of Bank Privatization." of Commercial Banks: Evidence from the Argentinean Bank- Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank ing SNstem." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference Privatization, Washington, D.C., November 2(0-21. on 13ank Privatization, WVashington, D.C., November Nash, Robert C., Ekkehart Boehmer, and Jeffry NI. Netter. 2003. 20-21. "Bank Privatization in Developing and Developed Coun- Bonaccorsi di Patti, Emilia, and Daniel Hardy. 2003. "Bank Reform tries: Cross-Sectional Evidence on the Impact of Economic and and Bank Efficiency in Pakistan." Paper presentcd at the World Political Factors." Paper presented at the World Bank Bank (Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., Novcmber 20- 1. November 20-2 1. Domestic Finanne 113 Omran, Nlohammed. 2003. "Privatization, State Ownership, and This midterm evaluation of African reforms shows that Bank Performance in Egypt." Paper presented at the World the results have been mixed. State banks were privatized, Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., laws updated, and inflation brought under control. For- November 20-2 1. eign banks gained a much larger market share, while state Otchere, Isaac. 2003. "Do Privatized Banks in NMiddle- and Low- banks saw their role decline. Financial systems generally Income Countries Perform Better Than Rival Banks? An Intra- improved by some measures; for example, many insol- Industry Analysis of Bank Privatization." Paper presented at the vent banks were closed, bank accounting and auditing World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, generally improved, and banking supervisors were given D.C., November 20-21. more authority, at least on paper. But many African finan- Pennarhur, Anita, Kimberly Gleason, and James McNulty. 2003. cial systems grew less rapidly than the economy. The "Returns to Bidders of Privatizing Financial Services Firms: An banks now hold more foreign assets, partly in response International Examination." Paper presented at the World to the increase in foreign currency deposits. Only a few Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., financial systems appear to have increased lending to the November 20-21. private sector. Thus while the systems may be more Sherif, Khaled. 2003. "The Fiscal Cost of State Banks in Eastern stable, the availability of lending and depository ser- Europe and Central Asia." Paper presented at the World Bank vices has not yet increased. Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., Novem- The results of the research have been used for devel- ber 20-21. opment assessments in financial sector adjustment pro- Shirley. Nlary, George R. G. Clarke, and Robert Cull. 2003. "Syn- grams in Africa. thesis: Empirical Studies of Bank Privatization." Paper presented Responsibility: Financial Sector Operations and Policy Depart- at the World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Wash- ment-Jo Ann Paulson (jpaulson@worldbank.org). ington, D.C., November 20-21. Williams, Jonathan, and Nghia Nguyen. 2003. "Liberalization, Credit Fluctuations in Latin America Ownership, and Efficiency Issues: A Comparative Study of South East Asian Banking." Paper presented at the WVorld The Latin American financial history of the 1990s was Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., characterized by wide fluctuations in bank credit to the November 20-21. private sector. These fluctuations were relatively syn- chronized across countries, suggesting common region- Changes in African Financial Systems wide factors at work. Moreover, a significant stagnation during the 1 990s or contraction of credit was observed after 1998 in many Latin American countries. This research investigates Many African countries experienced widespread finan- factors behind these observations and their policy impli- cial sector problems in the 1980s and 1990s. Reforms cations. It quantifies the importance of different deter- started in the 1990s. This study assessed their impact by minants of credit supply and demand, applying a pooled comparing the status of African financial systems between mean group estimation technique to quarterly panel the early 1990s and the early 2000s, over the period of data covering 10 Latin American countries in 1991-2001. early reforms. The research finds that lending capacity and eco- The study used cross-country information from the nomic activity have been the main drivers of credit International Monetary Fund's International Financial growth in the longer run, but that the adjustment to the Statistics database and the World Bank's World Devel- long-run equilibrium has been slow. In the shorter run opment Indicators database to develop indicators of important factors have been crowding out by the gov- financial sector performance. It supplemented data from ernment, macroeconomic uncertainty, changes in lend- Bankscope with data from annual reports and other pri- ing rates, and, especially during downturns, banks' mary sources to develop indicators of bank performance. unwillingness to lend and pressures on firms to delever- 114 Domestic Finance age. T he study also finds evidence of a growing phe- relatively little systematic research in this area. As a nomenon, particularly after 1998, of "liquid banks that result, the rationale for these efforts remains vague. do not Icnd"-reflecting a slower adjustment in lending This project aims to help improve World Bank oper- capacity during downturns. ations and government policies relating to small and 'I'he findings suggest that the right policies depend medium-size enterprises by: on the stage of the credit cycle and the specific circum- * Studying how firm size is determined and whether stances. In particular, a loosening of monetary policy small and medium-size enterprises have an important intended to reactivate credit can backfire during a down- impact on growth and poverty reduction. turn in whichi risk perceptions are high and liquid banks * Examining to what extent small and medium-size unwilling to lend. In these circumstances cleaning up enterprises face greater constraints to their growth and banks' balance sheets and adjusting corporate balance which policies and future trends are likely to affect these shects are a precondition for a resumption of prudent cornstraints. credit flows. * Exploring creative ways within different country set- Insights from the research have been incorporated into tings to make the existing lending to small and medium- World Bank analytic and advisory activities and opera- size enterprises more effective. tions, including in Bolivia and Costa Rica. The initial The research will be based largely on empirical work, research concept was presented at the Colombian Bank- which will use cross-country macroeconomic, firm-level, ing Association Conference in late 2000, and findings have and bank-level data to analyze determinants of firm size been presented at the Latin American and Caribbean and entry, growth obstacles faced by firms of different Economic Association meetings in October 2001 and at sizes, and the impact of firm size distribution on economic conferences in Cartagena, Colombia, in August 2002 development. The project will also include country case and Santa Cruz, Bolivia, in September 2002. studies. Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance- Office of the Chief Economist-Augusto de la 'Torre Aslh Demirgui,-Kunt (ademirguckunt@worldbank.org) (adelatorre@worldbank.org), and Finance, Private and Thorsten Beck. Sector, and Infrastructure tTnit-Danny Leipziger. With Giancarlo Gasha and Cesar Orosco. Foreign Bank Entry in Developing Countries Report The 1990s saw a big increase in foreign bank lending and Leipziger, Dannv. and Augusto de la 'lorre, with Giancarlo Gasha presence in developing countries, part of the larger and C(sar Orosco. "Behind Bank Credit FluctLiations in Latin process of financial integration in recent decades. America during the 1990s: Old and New Suspects." World Through three studies, this research project analyzes Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the several issues relating to foreign bank lending to devel- (Chicf lconomist, Washington, D.C. oping countries, particularly in Latin America. The first study analyzes changes in foreign bank Firm-Level Finance for Small claims on the Latin American private sector in 1985-2000, and Medium-Size Enterprises focusing on the importance of home and host country fac- tors in driving those claims. The study finds that banks 'I'he WVorld Bank Group has a substantial portfolio of transmit shocks from their home countries and that port- activities relating to small and medium-size enterprises folio adjustments spill over to host countries. Over time, \II-.l l- l But despite the strong interest among devel- however, foreign bank claims have become less respon- oping country policvmakers in developing the SNIE sive to external factors. NIoreover, the sensitivity to host sector, and the NVorld Bank's fre(luent involvement in country factors diminishes as foreign banks' exposure helping to design strategies for doing so, there has been increases. And evidence shows that foreign bank claims Domestic Finance 115 respond more to positive than to negative host country Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also forthcoming inJour- shocks and are not significantly curtailed during crises. na/of zlloney, C,redit, and Banking.) TIhe second study investigates whether bank origin Nlartinez Peria, NMaria Soledad, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vlad- affects the share and growth of lending to small busi- kova Hollar. 2002. "Banking on Foreigners: 'T'he Behavior of nesses, using bank-level data for Argentina, Chile, Colom- International Bank Lending to Latin America, 1985-2000." bia, and Peru in the mid-1990s. It finds that although Policy Research Working Paper 2893. World Bank, D)evelop- foreign banks generally lent less to small businesses (as ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. a share of total lending) than private domestic banks, the difference is due primarily to the behavior of small Incentives in Banking foreign banks. Large foreign banks generally surpass large domestic banks in both the share and the growth This research activity focused on how to make finance effec- of lending to small businesses. tive, how to prevent or minimize financial crises, what The last study examines how foreign bank presence record the state has as an owner in the financial sector, and affects firms' access to bank credit, combining responses how globalization in finance is leading to a world of finance from a 1999 survey of about 3,000 firms in 36 develop- without frontiers. The research identified and synthesized ing and transition economies with cross-country data on key findings of an extensive new wave of empirical research, the level of foreign bank presence. The results suggest conducted at the World Bank and elsewhere and based that all enterprises, including small and medium-size largely on cross-country databases. It highlighted the ones, have better access to bank credit in countries with policy choices that will maximize growth and rcstorc the greater foreign bank presence. financial sector to its intended role as a key sector for The studies have been disseminated in seminars helpingtocopewith-ratherthanamplify-volatility.T''he inside and outside the World Bank as well as at interna- research produced the following main findings: tional conferences, including the Latin American and Finance contributes to long-term prosperitr. It is obvious Caribbean Economic Association meetings in Nladrid that advanced economies have sophisticated financial in October 2002. systems. What is not obvious, but is borne out by the evi- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Mlaria dence, is that the services delivered by these financial Soledad Martinez Peria (mmartinezperia@worldbank systems have contributed in an important way to the pros- .org) and Robert Cull, and Investment Climate- perity of those economies. Getting the financial systems George R. G. Clarke; and Latin America and the of developing countries to function more effectively in Caribbean Region, Finance Cluster-Susana NI. Sanchez. providing the full range of financial services is a task that With Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, International Mlonetary will be well rewarded with economic growth. Fund; and Andrew Powell, Universidad 'Torcuato Di Governments are not good atprovidingfinancialserv-Z,s. Tella. Government ownership of banking continues to be remarkably widespread, despite clear evidencc that the Reports goals of such ownership are rarely achieved and that it Clarke. George R. G., Robert Cull, and Nlaria Soledad Martinez weakens rather than strengthens the financial system. Ileria. 2001. "Does Foreign Bank Penctration Reduce Access The desirability of reducing, even if not necessarily to Credit in Developing Countries? Evidence from Asking eliminating, state ownership in low- and middle-income Borrowers." Policy Research Working Paper 2716. World Bank, countries (where it is most widespread) follows from Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. this evidence. But privatization must be designed care- Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, Nlaria Soledad Nlartinez Peria, fully to reap the benefits it offers and minimize the risks and Susana MI. Sanchez. 2002. "Bank Lending to Small Busi- of an early collapse. nesses in Latin America: Does Bank Origin Matter?" Policy Noteven when a crisis hits. Even governments averse to Research Working Paper 2760. World Bank, Development an ownership role in banking may find it foisted on them 116 Domestic Finaonce in a crisis.'lhcaauthoriticsthcnmustfocusongettingout finance, including financial services from foreign or as quickly as possible, using the market-rathcr than foreign-owned financial firms. Reputable forcign finan- government agencies-to identify winners and losers. cial firms should be welcomed into the local market. Drawing on public funds to recapitalize some banks TFhey bring competition, improve efficiency, and lift the mna\ he unav oi(lable in truly systemic crises, but they must quality of the financial infrastructure-and thus serve as bc uscd sparingly, to leverage private funds and incen- an important catalyst for the kind of financial develop- tives. Procrastination and half mcasures-as reflected in ment that promotes growth. Governments need to lax policics involving rcgulatory forbearance, blanket remember that access to financial services is what guarantees, and their ilk-carry a large price tag that matters for development, not who provides the services. will affect the financial system and the economy for So (an technologv. The financial sector has long becn years to come. an early adopter of innovations in information and com- RuZ/t "-~. r. , anral-kets neetd legal and regulatory munications technology. The internationalization of tneleipinning. 'Creating an cfficicnt and sccure financial finance (despite efforts to block it) has been one conse- markct environment re(uircs an infrastructurc of legal quence. This trend has helped to lower the cost of equity rLlCs and practicc and timely and accuratc information, sup- and loan capital on average, even if it has also heightcned portcd b\ rcguilatory and supervisory arrangements that help vulnerability to capital flows. 'I'he precisc future role of cnsurc constructive incentives for financial market partic- e-finance in accelerating internationalization is not easy ipallts. Succcss in this area will promote growth in a way to predict, but it will surely be substantial. If volatility that favors the poor and stabilizcs the economy around the has increased, so too have risk management technologies higlhcr growth path. It will also expand direct access to and associated financial instruments. Some related credit financc for maniy now excludcd from the market. information techniques, including scoring mechanisms, Nou'v also need a strztegy based on harnessing incentives. promise to expand access to credit for small borrowcrs. Incentives are key to limiting undue risk taking and 'T'he research has visibly shifted the positions of the frautdulent belhavior in the management and supervi- World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on sioin of financial intermediaries-especially banks, which issues related to incentives in banking, notably deposit arc pronc to costly failure. Instability and crashes are insurance. Lnderlying research projects (Financial Struc- endemic to financial markets, but necd not be as costly ture, Deposit Insurance, Bank Regulation and Supervi- as they havc bccn in recent years. They reflect the sion) have helped to increase the capacity for policy rcsults of risk taking that goes well beyond society's research in developing countries, especially by supply- tolcrance for risk. 'I'lTese costs rcpresent a potentially ing them with new cross-country databases and new pcrsistent tax on growth. 'I'his can increase poverty in the tools for analyzing these data. In addition, resLilts from ncar term, and have longer-tcrm effects on the poor, the research have been incorporated into WVorld Bank through loeowr growth and through lower spending in such Institute courses and distance learning evcnts. arcas as hcalth and education. The research results have been widely shared with Thcvir.tr isgood/orstlaliitl. Banks, securities markets, academics, the press, market specialists, and the policy and a range of other types of financial firms are all needed community through dissemination events for the WVorld for balanced financial development. A radical prefer- Bank Policy Research Report produced by the project. enec for either markets or banks cannot be justified by These events, held Nlay-July 2001, took place in London, the extenlsiv-e evidence now available. Instead, the devel- Washington, D.C., Paris, 'Pokyo, Beijing, Shanghai, Sydney, opment of (itfferent segments of the financial system chal- Canberra, Adelaide, New Delhi, NMumbai, Cairo, Johan- lenges the other segments to innovate, to improve quality nesburg, Hong Kong (China), and Vietnam. In addition, and efficiency, and to lower prices. results were disseminated in African countries through a dis- (pen mnarkets (an sprl deuveopnent. NMost developing tance learning event in July 2001 and in Argentina, Chile, countries are too small to do without access to global and Tunisia through conference presentations in 2003. Domestic Finance 117 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance- schemes in a number of countries, including Brazil, Gerard Caprio Jr. (gcaprio@worldbank.org) and Patrick Namihia, and the Russian Fcdcration. Honohan. Responsibility: Financial Sector Operations and Policy Depart- ment-Luc laeven (llaeven@worldbank.org). Report World Bank. 2001. Pinanetfor Growth: Polio Choires in a Volatile lVorld. Report World Bank Policy Research Report. New York: Oxford [ini- Lacven, LI,c. 2002. "Pricing of Deposit Insurance." Policy Rese.arch versitv Press. WNorking Paper 2871. WVorld Bank, Financial Sector Stratcgv and PolicN Department, Washington, D.C. Pricing of Deposit Insurance Securities Laws and Financial Development: NIany countries have recently implemented, or plan to Investor Protection at Acquisition Time implement, deposit insurance schemes. The design of across the World these financial safety nets differs across countries, most importantly in the terms of coverage. Countries intro- Cross-country research on law and finance has estab- ducing explicit deposit insurance must decide which lished that laws have a tangiblc and important impact on types of deposits to insure and up to what amount, which markets, growth, and development. This study invcsti- banks may participate, who should manage and own the gates the role of the regulation of acquisition activity, deposit insurance fund, and at what levels to set the which has great policy relevance for emerging markct deposit insurance premiums. Given the potential con- economies. Corporate control transactions are among tingent liabilities to the government of an underfunded the chief sources of increases in corporate value as man- deposit insurance system, it is important to set deposit agers and owners seek efficiency gains and synergies. insurance premiums so as to align banks' incentives with These gains are greater in emerging market economies, the government's objectives. where markets are arguably less complete. At the same This study has developed several methodologies that time the laws to ensture that newly created value is shared can be used to set benchmarks for the pricing of deposit with minority investors are less strict (and lcss strictly insurance in a country and quantify how specific design enforced) in such economies. Poor protection of minor- features affect the cost of such insurance. Applying ity investor value, by lowering demand for listed sharcs these methodologies to a large sample of banks in by dispersed owners, can lead to less developed stock different countries, it has assessed how country- and markets. bank-specific characteristics contribute to the cost of Through a comparative cross-country analvsis of 30 deposit insurance. Results show that diversifying and countries with relatively developed securities markets, differentiating risk within a deposit insurance system the study is examining the role of minority protection reg- can reduce the price of deposit insurance. They also ulations in determining the breadth and depth of stock show that deposit insurance is underpriced in many markets. It is exploring the effects of individual regiila- countries. tions, their substitutability and interplay, and the extent Importantly, estimates suggest that many countries of protection of minority investor value. 'I'hc stLidv is also cannot afford deposit insurance. And deposit insurance investigating the effects on firm value of corporate gov- is unlikely to be a viable option in a country with weak ernance mechanisms such as mandatory tender offcrs and banks and institutions. The research shows that for coun- equal pricing provisions. Results should shed light on tries that have decided to prefund deposit insurance, which regulations are "good" for investors and for private pricing it as accurately as possible is important. sector growvth. The methods developed by the research have been The study draws on existing data on countries' used to assess the viability of the proposed pricing takeover regulations and national sccurities and corpo- 118 Domesiit Finance rate laws; stock market data from annual reports of stock approaches should be taken to an extreme. But while exchanges and the World Bank's World Development none of the three big flat tax reform ideas provides a com- Indicators database; and firm performance measures plete and practical solution, each has lessons for a good from Datastream, Moodys, and Worldscope. system. After completion of the study, findings will be * Even if practicalities impede the introduction of a distributed to stock market regulators in all World Bank value added tax on financial services, the notion of such member countries. They will also be disseminated within a tax represents a useful benchmark for comparing the the World Bank, where they will be useful in financial burden and impact of existing and proposed indirect sector assessments. taxes. Responsibility: Investment Climate Unit, World Bank- * Significant financial transactions taxes are hard to I'atiana Nenova (tnenova@worldbank.org). justify on theoretical grounds and should be resorted to only as a transitory device when fiscal revenue is under Taxation of Financial Intermediation particular pressure. * Heavy emphasis on the taxation of capital income The recent adoption in several countries of special finan- should be avoided. cial transactions taxes, quickly yielding a substantial Attempts at corrective taxation should be undertaken impact, refocused attention on financial sector taxation with extreme caution, as history suggests that un- more generally. Many commentators have criticized intended side-effects or deadweight losses may dominate financial sector taxes as arbitrary and distorting. But a basic the results. Both case studies and analytic research sug- framework for judging these issues has been lacking, ham- gest that policymakers instead should focus on avoiding pering policy advice and allowing costly policy errors. two traps into which financial sector taxation can fall: the This research project set out to develop a framework sector's unique capacity for arbitrage and its sensitivity for thinking about financial sector taxation with the aim to inflation and thus to nonindexed taxes. All financial of leading to guidelines for a good tax system-one that, sector taxes need to be designed to be as arbitrage- and so far as is possible, corrects known distortions, minimizes inflation-proof as possible. the distortions it imposes, and does not push tax collec- Though technical, the recommendations of the study tion from the financial sector beyond the point where mar- could make a significant development contribution given ginal distorting costs exceed those elsewhere in the the importance of an effective financial sector to sustained economy. growth. The messages from the research are beginning The study had three main parts. Two analytic papers to be applied in the World Bank's financial sector adjust- set out the positive and normative theory of financial sec- ment programs. tor taxation. A fact-finding exercise described financial The research findings were presented at a confer- sector taxation in advanced economies. And six papers ence held at the Central Bank of Chile for policy- looked at the most important and controversial specific makers and the research and financial community in issues in financial sector taxation today. December 2002. They were also presented in a World The project's findings provide a framework for assess- Bank Institute Global Dialogue session linking Ankara, ing the many proposals for tax policy reform affecting the Brasilia, Kiev, Mexico City, and Washington, D.C., in April financial sector. Such proposals are typically aimed either 2003. at simplification-usually some form of "flat tax" (includ- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance ing a value added tax on financial services, a universal -Patrick Honohan (phonohan@worldbank.org) and transactions tax, or zero taxation on capital income)-or Anqing Shi. With Michael Keen, Andrei Kirilenko, at subtle corrective taxation to offset market failures in Victoria Summers, Karl Habermeier, and Emil Sunley, the financial sector or to achieve other targeted objectives. International Monetary Fund; Robin Boadway, Queens The study concludes that neither of these reform University, Kingston, Canada; Tullio Jappelli, Salerno Domestic Finance 119 University, Italy; Philip Brock, University of Washington, countries, corporations in Mexico have relied far more on Seattle; Ramon Caminal, Universitat Aut6noma de debt than equity issuance in the past few years. Barcelona; Eliana Cardoso, Georgetown University; A comparison of fees across countries shows that Brigitte Granville, Royal Institute for International Affairs, investment banking fees clearly dominate the total costs. London; Mattias Levin and Peer Ritter, Centre for Euro- In Chile, however, the issuance tax is just as large as the pean Policy Studies, Brussels; and Satya Poddar, Ernst investment banking fee. In all three countries companies & Young, Canada. The International Monetary Fund pay investment banks more for their services in issuing contributed staff time to the research. equity than for their services in issuing dcbt. The differences in cost across the three countries and Reports across instruments suggest that cost should be a factor Honohan, Patrick. 2003. "Avoiding the Pitfalls in Taxing Finan- in firms' decisions about security issuance. But in Chile cial Intermediation." Policy Research Working Paper 3056. and Mexico at least, the nature of the investor base World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. appears to be an overwhelming factor in determining - Forthcoming. "Alternative Approaches to Taxing the which companies can access domestic capital markets. Finance Sector: Which Is Best and Where Does Chile Stand?" In these markets, where pension funds are typically the In J. Rodrigo Fuentes and Luis Antonio Ahumada, eds., largest source of finance, the credit quality of the firm or Banking Industry and Monetary Policy Transmission. Series on issue is what matters most. This finding suggests a need Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies. Santiago: for further investigation into the effect of investment Central Bank of Chile. restrictions for institutional investors on the development - 1,ed. 2003. Taxation of FinancialIntennediation: Theory andPrac- of local capital markets. In international capital markets ticefor Emerging Economies. New York: Oxford University Press. size is more important in determining which firms can gain access to capital, for cost and liquidity reasons. Transaction Costs in Raising Capital Findings will be presented at the World Bank and at universities and other institutions (such as the Federal This study documents the transaction costs that devel- Reserve Bank of Atlanta). The data collected by the oping country firms face when issuing debt and equity study are already being used in World Bank operations, in domestic markets or abroad. It gathered cost data including a recent financial sector adjustment program from the Web sites of stock exchanges and regulatory in Chile. The project's methodology and questionnairc bodies, from Bloomberg and Bondware, and through will be used in financial sector operations relating to questionnaire-based telephone interviews with regula- capital markets, in collecting data to benchmark the tors, securities lawyers, investment bankers, and company costs of raising capital in a country and to offer interna- officers (typically chief financial officers). The study tional comparisons to country officials. They will also be focuses on the transaction costs for firms in three used in a broader data collection effort to be undertaken countries-Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. jointly with the Development Economics Senior Vice For Brazilian firms the cost of issuing debt locally or Presidency, where the data will be used to further study abroad is almost the same; while the legal costs of the effect of costs on firms' issuance and access to international issuance are much higher, the investment capital. banking costs are much lower. Chilean firms can issue Responsibility: Financial Sector Operations and Policy Depart- debt more cheaply abroad because of the 1.6 percent ment-Sara J. Zervos (szervos@worldbank.org). issuance tax at home. Domestically it is much cheaper to issue equity than debt, but few Chilean firms have Report done so in the past 10 years, and corporate debt issuance Zervos, Sara J. "The Transaction Costs of Primary Issuance: 'Ilhe has continued to climb. Mexican firms can issue debt at Case of Brazil, Chile and Nlexico." World Bank, Financial a low cost domestically and abroad. As in the other two Sector Operations and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. 120 Domestic Finance Twin Crises and Government Policy Aires (1999 and 2000); World Bank-Universidad Tor- cuato Di Tella Conference on Integration and Contagion, In the post-Bretton Woods era exchange rate crises have Buenos Aires (1999); Banco de Portugal Conference on often coincided with banking crises-as in Chile in 1982, Monetary Economics, Guimaraes, Portugal (2000); Cen- Finland and Sweden in 1992, NMexico in 1994, and South- tre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Conference east Asia in 1997. This research project investigated on Exchange Rates and Prices in General Equilibrium, such twin banking and currency crises, examining the Barcelona (2000); NBER Conference on Management of mechanisms by which banking crises cause and exacer- Currency Crises, Cambridge, Massachusetts (2000), and bate currency crises and the channels through which Monterey, California (2001); NBER Economic Fluctu- currency crises cause banking crises. The research focused ations and Growth Meeting (2000); NBER International particularly on the role of foreign exchange exposure in Seminar on Macroeconomics, Bank of Finland, Helsinki these crises and on explaining the causes and conse- (2000); Texas Monetary Conference (2000); CESifo Sum- qucnces of this exposure. mer Institute, Venice (2001); Dubrovnik Economic The research found that government guarantees Conference, Croatia (2001); and Middle East Technical issued to bank creditors can explain the lack of hedging University, Economic Research Center International against currency risk that is seen in emerging markets Conference on Economics, Ankara (2001). despite the availability of hedging products. Models The research results form the basis for ongoing work developed by the study show how this lack of hedging in the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management can lead to the possibility of self-fulfilling speculative Network's Economic Policy Division as well as part of a attacks against managed exchange rate regimes. Even course the division provided for World Bank economists when the standard fundamentals in an economy are per- in fiscal 2002. fectlv sound, lack of hedging driven by government Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- guarantees exposes the economy to random shifts in ment Network, Economic Policy Division-Craig investor sentiment. Burnside. With Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, and '[he study developed a simple model that can be Yuliya Mescheryakova, Northwestern University. used to show how crises driven by agents' self-fulfilling expectations of future government deficits are consistent Reports with low inflation-but rapid currency depreciation-in Burnside, Craig. 2001. "Currency Crises and Contingent Liabilities." the wake of a twin banking and currency crisis. Moreover, World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management preliminary analyses of the Republic of Korea and Mex- Network, Economic Policy Division, Washington, D.C. ico in their postcrisis periods found that neither has paid . Forthcoming. "On Contingent Liabilities and the Like- for as much as 50 percent of the fiscal costs associated lihood of Fiscal Crises." Comparative Economic Studies. with their banking sector bailouts. Both countries have Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. 2001. relied on new borrowing for financing in the short run. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate 'Ihe postcrisis outcomes for inflation in these countries Regimes." European Economic Review 45: 1151-93. can be rationalized by making assumptions about their .2001. On theFiscalImplications of Twin Crises. NBER Work- future financing choices. ing Paper 8277. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Results have been presented at a large number of Research. (Also published in Michael Dooley and Jeffrey A. seminars and conferences attended by academics, Frankel, eds., Managing CurrenTv Crises in Emerging Markets, policvmakers, and World Bank economists. These include Chicago: tUniversity of Chicago Press, 2003.) seminars at many universities and the following events: . 2002. "Government Guarantees and Self-Fulfilling National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Sum- Speculative Attacks." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and mer Institute (1999); UJniversidad Torcuato Di Tella Economic Management Network, Economic Policy Division, Summer Camp in International Economics, Buenos Washington, D.C. Domestic Finance 121 The study's analytic strategy is being used by World have Mexico's programs for small and medium-size enter- Bank staff to examine the growth potential of lagging prises been? Which program features matter? And how regions in Brazil, the differentiated role of cities in have the programs affected firms' performantc in pro- national economic growth in India, and productivity dif- ductivity growth, wages, and joh creation? ferences between the lagging South in Mexico and the 'To identify the effect of program participation, the rest of the country. study compares the performance of beneficiaries with that Findings have been disseminated at the tTnited of a control group of nonbeneficiaries with otherwise Nations University, World Institute for Development similar attributes. It uses a variety of econometric mnethods Economics Research conference on spatial inequalities -including propensity score matching and difference- in Asia in March 2003 and at the Regional Science in-differences methods-to address selection bias. 'I'he Association Mleetings in Philadelphia in November 2003. analysis draws on firm-level panel data from the 1992, Other dissemination activities are planned, including 1995, 1999, and 20(01 National Surveys of Eimployment, presentations at workshops in India with participation Salaries, Technology, and T'raining (ENESTYC) and from other developing countries. annual industrial surveys for 1993-2000. It also uses Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- firm-level data collected by the Ministry of Labor for ture and Environment-Somik V. Lall (slall@ evaluations in 1995 and 1997 of a program providing worldbank.org). With Sanjoy Chakravorty, Temple integrated training and support services for small and lUniversity; and Kyojun Koo, Cleveland State medium-size enterprises (the Program for Integral Qtual- _Tniversity. ity and NModernization, or CIMO). These data follow samples of CINIO beneficiaries and a matched conmpar- Reports ison group over time. 'I'he data are complemented by case Chakravorty. Sanjoy, Jun Koo, and Somik V. Lall. 2003. "Nlctro- studies. detailed field interviews, and collection of politan Industrial (luisters: Patterns and Processes." Policy information relating to the programs. Research NVorking Paper 3073. World Bank, Development Although the research is incomplete, preliminary find- Rcscarch Group, Washington, D.C. (Also forthcoming in ings show that heterogeneity in firms' underlying Fnvironment and Planning.) productivity attributes coupled with self-selection in Lall, Somik V., and Sanjoy Chakravorty. Forthcoming. "Industrial program participation can severely bias program impact Location and Spatial Inequality: Theory and Evidence from evaluations. For examplc, the CINlIO program appears to India." Rev'iewa of Development Economics. attract weaker firms compared with similar nonpartici- Iall, Somik V, Jun Koo, and Sanjoy Chakravorty. 2003. "Diversity pants. Thus while CINIO firms show positive treatment Matters: 'I'he Economic Geography of Industry Location in effects-more training, reduced labor turnover, India." Policy Research WVorking Papcr 3072. World Bank, adoption of quality control-postprogram productivity Dehclopmcnt Research Group, WVashington, D.C. levels remain below those of the comparison group. Once the selection bias is recognized, the negative Evaluating Mexico's Small and Medium-Size estimate of program impact becomes positive. Enterprise Programs Macroeconomic shocks can also adversely affect program evaluations. For the CINIO program positive Many industrial and developing countries have intro- difference-in-differenecs estimates of program impact duced programs for small and medium-size enterprises are found only when macroeconomic conditions were (SMEs) aimed at enhancing productivity and wages, favorable, in 1991-93; they were not statistically signif- creating new jobs, and promoting exports. But few have icant in 1993-95 as a resuIlt of the 1994-95 recession in rigorously evaluated the effectiveness of these programs. Mexico. This study investigates this issue, focusing on programs 'rhe research has also ftound that rctrospective surveys in M\exico. It addresses several questions: How effective coupled with purposive sampling of program partici- 124 Industry and Privofe Sectir Development pants are a potentially useful way of collecting panel Global Business School Network Capacity data for evaluating programs. and Needs Assessment: Seven Sub-Saharan 'I'hc project involves working closely with government African Countries agcnicics responsible for SNIE programs in Mexico-the Nlinistrics of Labor, Economy, Poverty, and Science and A vibrant, competitive postsecondary education system '1'.: 1,l. ! | -[disseminate good practices in program is critical in building a workforce with the skills, knowl- evaluation methods and to upgrade their evaluation edge, and attitudes to create and manage new busi- capabilities. nesses, to privatize and restructure existing enterprises, 'I'hc research is expected to contribute to the litera- and to regulate business activity effectively-all ture on impact evaluations of SME programs and to elements of a robust private sector. In Sub-Saharan policv insights into which types of such programs are most Africa, however, graduate management schools face effective in improving firm performance. myriad obstacles-a nascent private sector, far too few The rcsearch methods and preliminary findings have qualified faculty members, marginal primary and been prcsented in several forums for academics and secondary preparation, and historical ambivalence or policymakers, including a labor market conference even antagonism between higher education and the pri- organized bv the tJniversitv of Capetown's Develop- vate sector. With few exceptions, graduate management ment Policv Research tTnit and the Friedrich Ebert programs in Sub-Saharan Africa are unable to Stiftunlg in Johannesburg (October 2002); a workshop on compete with institutions in the West and thus cannot evaluating SME programs in Mexico City (November attract the best local students or faculty. 2(002): a World Bank Institute core course on labor To provide an understanding of the dynamic social, market policies in WVashington, D.C. (NMarch 2003); an political, and economic environments in which graduate investment climate workshop in Sri Lanka (December management schools in Sub-Saharan Africa must oper- 2003); an impact evaluation training workshop in ate and compete, this project performed a baselinc assess- Casablanca (January 2004, for government policymakers ment of such schools in seven countries-Cameroon, from Algeria, Mlorocco, and Tunisia); and an impact Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, 'lTanzania, and cvaluation training workshop in Mexico City (April 2004, tJganda. In each country the assessment gathered basic for government staff and academics from Mexico and facts about the capacity of the business schools and Latin America). The research will also be incorporated established the country context in which they operate, into training courses for WVorld Bank staff and client their relationship with the local business community, Countrics. and what might be done to move the institutions to self- Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Human Development sustainability and increase their academic capacity. The Division-Hong 'Fan (htan@worldbank.org); and Latin conceptual framework used was the input, environment, Armerica and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Sector and outcome (I-E-O) model, which ensures the assess- Unit-Gladys Lopez-Acevedo. With Roberto Flores- ment of these three critical variables as well as the Lima; Nlarcela Rubio Sanchez; and Monica Tinajero, relationships between them. government of NMexico. The Mlexican Mlinistries of Econ- The assessment collected qualitative and quantitative omy and Labor and the National Institute for Statistics, data to evaluate the functioning of each institution Geography, and Information Systems (INEGI) are col- (matriculation rates, financial and other resources, factilty laborating in the research. capabilities, course offerings, private sector links, and the like) and also considered broader reputational concep- Report tions of performance. The assessment then compared 'Tan. -long. 2002. "Evaluating SNIE Programs: A Case Study of these data against the stated goals and missions of Nlcxico's CIN1() Program." Wi7BI Working Paper. World Bank the institution and the needs of the community it IlStituteC, ashington, D.C. serves. Ifidusiry and Private Sector Development 125 Across the 22 institutions surveyed, several sets of sim- - . 2003. "Assessment of Graduate NManagement Education ilarities emerge. Public business schools often face the in Nigeria." University of Michigan Business School, William same kinds of institutional constraints and pressures, Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. including scarcity of funding, difficulty in attracting and . 2003. "Assessment of Graduate Management Education retaining high-caliber faculty, and challenges in achiev- in Senegal." University of Mlichigan Business School, William ing the optimal level of autonomy. Private institutions also Davidson Institute. Ann Arbor. often cited the challenge (though less severe) of retain- . 2003. "Assessment of Graduate Management Education ing high-quality instructors. in South Africa." University of Michigan Business School. The study found a wide range among the schools- William Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. from those that can rank with top schools in Europe and - . 2003. "Assessment of Graduate Nlanagement Education the United States (mainly those in South Africa) to those in 'I'anzania." University of Michigan Business School, William with very few resources. The schools also differ in the Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. types of students they enroll. The more advanced schools . 2003. "Assessment of Graduate Nlanagement Education insist that students have prior business experience, while in tIganda." tJniversity of Nlichigan Business School, William others accept relatively inexperienced students. Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. Some local businesses felt that the graduates lacked suf- ficient experience and training to be taken straight into man- Investment Climate Research agement positions, although the same firms also indicated a clear need for well-trained managers in their country. This research program collects data from firms through Reports on the assessment results were shared with investment climate surveys and then uses the data to the universities and distributed widely within the World examine a range of issues and hypotheses, including the Bank Group. The findings have assisted in developing impact of education on worker productivity, the impact the Global Business School Network's approach to capac- of corruption on firm investment and productivity, and ity building of management education and initial pilot the sources of productivity differences more generally projects in Africa. across firms and countries. By involving leading Responsibility: Global Business School Network-Guy P. researchers in developing and implementing the sur- Pfeffermann (gpfeffermann@ifc.org). With Azam veys, the program ensures policy-relevant research. NIore Chaudhry; E. LaBrent Chrite, Jose Arredondo, Naresh than 30 surveys have been completed, and 20 more arc lyer, Matthieu Garnier, Kaluke Mawila, Priya Naik, and under way or planned. The surveys have led to 16 invest- Robert Schneider, University of Michigan; and Richard ment climate assessments-in such countries as Cam- America, Georgetown University. bodia, Ethiopia, India, Morocco, Pakistan, Serbia and Montenegro, and Tanzania-and 16 more are under way. Reports The research is rich and diverse, consistent with the Arredondo, Jose, Naresh Iyer, Matthieu Garnier, Kaluke Nlawila, range of issues covered in the surveys, and is expected Priya Naik, and Robert Schneider. 2003. "Assessment of Grad- to produce novel and policy-relevant findings for years. uate Management Education: Executive Summary." Univer- Some of the important findings that have emerged sity of Michigan Business School, William Davidson Institute, include the following: Ann Arbor. * The data underscore the importance of local - . 2003. "Assessment of Graduate Management Education governance, revealing tremendous differences in invcst- in Cameroon." University of Michigan Business School, William ment climates not just across countries but within themr. Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. For example, improving the local investment climate to 2003. "Assessment of Graduate Management Education match that in Shanghai would boost firm productivity bv in Ghana." University of Michigan Business School, William an average 18 percent in Bangalore, 43 percent in Dhaka, Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. 78 percent in Calcutta, and 81 percent in Karachi. 126 Industry and Private Sector Development * Recognizing the important association between Driemeier; Africa Region, Private Sector Family-Jean exporting and higher productivity, the surveys investi- Michel Marchat and Vijaya Ramachandran; East Asia gate how firms have been able to move from serving local and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic markets to serving export markets. Among five East Management Sector Department-Albert Zeufack; Latin Asian countries, the more developed the country, the America and the Caribbean Region, Private Sector greater the number of firms making the transition and Cluster-Luke Haggarty; and World Bank Institute, simultaneously serving domestic and export markets. Global Governance Unit-Francesca Recanatini. With But in the less developed countries firms gain access to Scott Wallsten; Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford University; export markets largely through entry. Few firms make the Raymond Fisman, Columbia Business School; Omkar transition: most focus on either local or foreign markets. Goswami, Confederation of Indian Industries; Ann * Firms are aware of and able to estimate the effects Harrison, University of California at Berkeley; and John of the investment climate they face. Entrepreneurs in Sutton, London School of Economics. India, asked how much their costs would change if their business were located in other cities across the country, Reports gave estimates very close to the actual productivity Cull, Robert, and L. Colin Xu. 2003. "Contract Enforcement, differentials. Ownership, and Finance: Determinants of Investment in * The data bring out firms' reliance on different China." World Bank, Developmenr Research Group, Wash- sources of capital and the effects of changes in access to ington, D.C. these sources. The usual presumption is that trade credit Dollar, David, and Mary Hallward-Driemeier. 2000. "Crisis, Adjust- can substitute for more formal bank credit. But data ment, and Reform in Thai Industry." WVorld Bank Research from East Asia show that trade credit does not fully sub- Obsener 15(1): 1-22. stitute for bank credit and cannot sustain the operations Dollar, David, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Taye Nlengistae. of firms constrained by banks. 2003. "Investment Climate and Firm Performance in Devel- Findings have been incorporated into country assis- oping Countries." World Bank, Development Research Group, tance strategies for Algeria, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Mozam- Washington, D.C. bique, Nepal, and Nigeria, and investment climate . 2003. "Investment Climate, Infrastructure, and Trade: assessments and related surveys have informed 26 lend- A Comparison of Latin America and Asia." World Bank, Devel- ing operations, mostly in Africa and Latin America. In opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. most countries the investment climate work has received Dollar, David, Giuseppe larossi, and Taye Mengistae. 2002. "Invest- tremendous press attention. ment Climate and Economic Performance: Some Firm-Level The data are being made available to many scholars, Evidence from India." Working Paper 143. Stanford University, by diskette and through a Web site. The development Center for Research on Economic Development and Policy of a sophisticated new Web site (at http://iresearch Reform, Stanford, Calif. .worldbank.org/ics/jsp/index.jsp) will substantially expand Dwor-Frecaut, Dominique, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and access to the data, especially in developing countries. Francis X. Cola,o. 1999. "Corporate Credit Needs and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment Governance." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference Climate-David Dollar (ddollari@worldbank.org), Ibrahim on Asian Corporate Recovery: Corporate Governance, Elbadawi, Giuseppe larossi, Philip Keefer, Taye Mengis- Government Policy, Bangkok, March 31-April 2. tae, and Lixin Colin Xu; Investment Climate Unit, Office Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Taye Mengistae, and Albert Zeufack. 2001. of the Director-Neil Roger, Foreign Investment 1- "Geography, Supplier Access, Foreign Nlarket Potential, and Geeta Batra, Monitoring, Analysis, and Policy Manufacturing Exports in Developing Countries: An Analysis -Simeon Djankov, and Investment Climate-John of Firm-Level Data." World Bank, Washington, D.C. Nasir and Andrew Stone; Development Economics, Fafchamps, Marcel, Said El Hamine, and Albert Zeufack. 2001. World Development Report Office-Mary Hallward- "Learning to Export: Firm-Level Evidence from NMorocco." Indusfry and Private Sector Development 127 Paper presented at the conference on New Industrial Realities The empirical model is a set of reduced-form equa- and Firm Behavior in Africa, St. Edmunds Hall, Oxford, tions based on a theoretical model that describes a firm's September. dynamic decisions to export, to invest in R&D or worker Goswami, Omkar, and David Dollar. 2001. "'l'he Competitiveness training (or both), and to exit. 'IThe study models the firm's of Indian Nlanufacturing: Results from a Firm-Level Survey." joint decisions to export and invest in R&D or worker Confederation of Indian Industry, New Delhi. training with a multinomial logit model that recognizes Hallward-Driemeier, Mary. 2001. "Firm-Level Survey Provides the interdependence of the decisions. It then estimates Data on Asia's Corporate Crisis and Recovery." Policy Research how participation in these investment activities alters the Working Paper 2515. World Bank, Development Research firm's future productivity trajectory while controlling for Group, Washington, D.C. the selection bias introduced by endogenous firm exit. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and David Stewart. 2003. 'Getting The findings show, for both Korea and 'Iaiwan (China), What You Pay For? Bribes and the Decision to Invest." World that past experience in exporting increases the likelihood Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. that a firm currently exports. In Korea past experience Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, Giuseppe larossi, and Kenneth Sokoloff. in R&D also has lasting effects on a firm's investment 2002. Exports andMAanufacturi ngProductivity in EastAsia: A Com- decisions. These results are consistent with the belief that parativeAnalysis with Firmn-LIve/Data. NBER Working Paper 8894. contacts with foreign buyers through exporting and Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. investments in capabilities are less costly for firms that Hallward-Driemeicr, Mary, L. Colin Xu, and Scott Wallsten. 2003. have already incurred some necessary sunk costs. In "The Investment Climate and the Firm: Firm-Level Evidence addition, the results indicate that largcr firms and more from China." Policy Research Working Paper 3003. World productive firms are more likely to participate in each Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. activity. Kawai, Nlasahiro, Hongjoo Hahm, and Giuseppe larossi. 1999. 'I'he findings also suggest that, on average, Korean "Corporare Foreign Borrowing in East Asia: 'roo Much, Too firms that either export or perform R&D have signifi- Little?"PaperpresentedattheWorldBank ConferenceonAsian cantly higher future productivity than firms that do Corporate Recovery: Corporate Governance, Government neither-and those that do both have significantly higher Policy, Bangkok, March 31-April 2. future productivity than firms that only export or only Love, Inessa, and Rida Zaidi. 2003. "Trade Credit and Financing invest in R&D. (Results for Taiwanese firms arc more Constraints: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis." World Bank, mixed because of a five-year gap in the clata series.) Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that export experience is an important source of productiv- The Roles of Foreign Contact and Firm ity growth and that investing in R&D improves firms' Capability in Firms' Dynamic Productivity ability to benefit from exposure to the export market. Responsibility: Investment Climate tTnit, Foreign Invest- This study investigates a firm's decision to invest in two ment 1-Geeta Batra (gbatra@worldbank.org). With sources of knowledge-participation in the export mar- Bee Yan AwT and Mlark J. Roberts, Pennsylvania State ket and investments in capability measured by research University. and development (R&D) and worker training-and assesses the effects of these investments on the firm's Report future total factor productivity. The analysis uses micro- As, Bee Yan, Gcera Barra, and Nlark j. Robcrts. ["he Rolcs of For- economic panel data for firms in key manufacturing eign Contact and Firm Capability in Firms' I)ynamic ProduLc- industries in the Republic of Korea and Taiwan (China) tivity." WNorld Bank. Invcstmcnt Climate l !nit, Washington, for 1983-96. L).C. 128 Industry and Private Sertor Development Governance and Public Sector Mananement Corporate Governance older people are more averse to corruption. It also pro- vides evidence that social effects play an important part Corporate governance has received much attention in in determining individual attitudes toward corruption, as rccent years. especially for firms in emerging market these are robustly and significantly associated with the economics. As firms in these economies have continued average level of tolerance of corruption in a region. TFhis to attract foreign institutional investors, the protection finding lends empirical support to theoretical models in of minority sharcholders has become increasingly impor- which corruption emerges in multiple equilibriums and tant. Mlan improvements to corporate govcrnance frame- suggests that "big push" policies might be particularly works have been proposed-and sometimes, with the effective in combating corruption. support of international financial institutions, imple- Another analysis looks at corruption and openness. It mented. But our understanding of the implications of finds that when outlier countries such as Singapore are ownership and corporate govcrnance frameworks-and excluded from the sample, there is no conclusive evidence of the uni(lue corporate governance challenges- that open countries are less corrupt. in emerging markct economies remains limited. A third analysis examines the role of trade tariffs, This project will study the role of corporate governance explicitly accounting for the interaction between in improving firms' performance and the cost of and importers and corrupt customs officials. It argues that set- access to financing. 'I'he analysis will be based on empir- ting tariffs at a uniform level not only limits the ability ical data collected through surveys of firms in more than of public officials to misclassify imported goods and 40 developing and transition economies by private invest- thereby extract bribes from importers, but also can deliver ment banks and \World Bank consultants. higher government revenues and welfare than a Ramsey Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance- tariff structure when corruption is pervasive. The empir- Leora Klapper (lklapper@worldbank.org) and Inessa ical evidence suggests that a highly diversified menu of Love; and Financial Sector Opcrations and Policy Depart- trade tariffs might fuel corruption, as a significant and mcnt-Luc Laevcn. With Reena \ 'ieri" d and Sandeep robust association between an appropriately computed Dahiya, Georgetown I iniversitv, *MlcDonough School of measure of tariff diversification and corruption in customs Busincss; and Peter D. Wvsocki, Nlassachusetts Institute emerges across countries. of 'l'echnology, Sloan School of Nlanagement. Papers produced by the project have been presented at the WVorld Bank, a Southeastern Economic Association Corruption conference in Washington, D.C., and a European Pub- lic Choice Society conference in Italy. Corruption has been shown to bc a substantial impedi- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- ment to development in poor countries. This ongoing pro- nomics and Growth-Roberta Gatti (rgatti@worldbank jcct is analyzing the causes of corruption in order to identify .org); and Poverty Reduction and Economic Mlanagemcnt effective policies to combat it. The work builds on exist- Network, Poverty Reduction Group-Stefano Paternostro. ing theorctical models of corruption and uses state-of-the- With Jamele Rigolini, New lork Utniversity. art empirical estimation tcchniques to asscss its determinants. An analysis of social effects uses individual-level data Reports for 35 countrics to investigate the microcconomic deter- Gatti, Roberta. 1999. "Corruption and Trade Tariffs, or a Case for minants of attitudes toward corruption. It consistently UIniform Tariffs." Policy Research Working Paper 2216. World finds that womcn, the cmployed, the less wvealthy, and Bank, Devclopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. 129 --. "Explaining Corruption: Are Open Countries More Report Corrupt?" World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Easterly, William, Roberta Gatti, and Sergio Kurlat. 2002. "Devel- ington, D.C. Draft. opment, Democracy, and Mass Killings." Paper presented at the Gatti, Roberta, Stefano Paternostro, and Jamele Rigolini. 2003. annual meetings of the American Political Science Associa- "Individual Attitudes toward Corruption: Do Social Effects tion, San Francisco, August 29-September 2. Mlatter?" Policy Research Working Paper 3122. World Bank, Development Research Group and Poverty Reduction and Does Democracy Help the Poor? Comparing Economic Management Network, Washington, D.C. Democratic Decentralization and Community-Based Development in India and Indonesia Development, Democracy, and State Violence This project will compare the effectiveness of local gov- The 20th century closed with many lamenting govern- ernments in India and Indonesia in providing services that ment killings of defenseless civilians as its greatest evil. benefit the poor. India has pursued local-level democ- By one estimate governments killed as many as 170 racy but a largely top-down approach to development million civilians between 1900 and 1987-more than all planning. By contrast, Indonesia has been mainly auto- the soldiers killed in the wars of the 20th century. cratic at the local level, but its development planning has This project looks at the relationship between devel- specifically incorporated community-based approaches opment, democracy, and state violence. It has surveyed since its independence five decades ago. a broad literature on state violence and collected data on The comparative analysis will mix qualitative and both the incidence of events (a dummy variable for quantitative methods in the context of evaluation designs whether state violence took place in the country and year and natural experiments. The data for India will be indicated) and estimates of numbers of victims. Using a drawn from a qualitative and quantitative survey ofpan- newly assembled data set spanning 1820-1998, it has stud- chayats (village governments) coupled with facilities sur- ied the relationship between the occurrence and cruelty veys, household surveys, participatory rural appraisal of episodes of mass killing and the levels of development discussions, focus group discussions, and in-depth inter- and democracy across countries and over time. views, along with transcripts from village-level meet- The research finds that massacres are more likely at ings between leaders and constituents to discuss village intermediate levels of income and less likely at very development plans. The villages have been matched high levels of democracy. Interestingly, discrete improve- between culturally and historically similar regions that, ments in an index of democracy do not translate into a through an accident of boundary drawing, ended up in lower chance of massacres unless the countries move to different states. the highest level of democracy. The study finds The data for Indonesia will include panel data being evidence that the number of victims is significantly collected in 166 villages in three provinces for an eval- lower in more democratic countries, especially in the uation of a community-driven development project (the 20th century. Second Urban Poverty Project). These data will be col- This work complements other World Bank research lected through a baseline and follow-up survey in treat- on political violence, particularly the Development ment and matched control communities using methods Research Group's project on the Economics of Political similar to those for the panchayat survey in India. The data and Criminal Violence. set will include qualitative data tracking changes in vil- Newly collected data are being prepared for dissem- lage government and collective action over three years. ination in Stata format. The study will also draw on additional panel data from Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- 48 villages. nomics and Growth-William Easterly and Roberta Another source of information will be a natural exper- Gatti. With Sergio Kurlat. iment. In India the election commission randomly selects 130 Governance and Public Sector Management 30 percent of panchavats to have their presidencies * Listed firms performed better when they had a reserved for women. And in Indonesia the Second Urban balance of power between top shareholders. Poverty Project involves randomly selecting 30 percent * Firms' performance can be improved by lessening of the village committees formed for managing project political control, increasing their flexibility in deploying funds to be headed by women. 'T'his will allow the study labor, and mitigating agency costs through the intro- to test whether affirmative action helps ensure that duction of more effective corporate governance mecha- women are included in village governance. nisms such as one share, one vote and a board structure The project will produce tool kits for conducting based on shareholding. mixed method evaluations, which will be used in WVorld * Ownership structure affects firms' performance: Bank Institutc courses. Research results will feed directly compared with shareholding by the state, foreign own- into operational projects in the World Bank's South Asia ership has a positive effect on firms' performance, indi- and East Asia and Pacific Regions, improving work on vidual (mostly employee) shareholding has a negative community-driven development and decentralization. effect, and collective and legal person shareholding has The research project will be implemented by local an indistinguishable effect. consultants, who will receive extensive training in *Somewhat surprisingly, operating autonomy (exclud- conducting mixed method evaluations and qualitative ing flexibility in deploying labor) has a negative effect analysis. on firms' performance, suggesting serious agency prob- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty lems in the reformed enterprises. Team-Vijayendra Rao (vrao@Cworldbank.org); and East * Investment by private firms is affected by endoge- Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and nous harassment by government officials. Economic Nlanagement Sector Department-Vivi Alatas The research has assisted policymakers and World and Mienno Pradhan. With Tim Besley, London School Bank staff in formulating transition policies in China of Economics; and Rohini Pande, Yale U Jniversity. 'I'he and contributed to a 2003 World Bank country economic World Bank-Netherlands Partnership Program is memorandum for China. It has also provided inputs into providing funding for data collection. an investment climate report on China (David Dollar, Shuilin Wang, Lixin Colin Xu, and Anqing Shi, Improv- Firm Ownership and Corporate Governance in China ing City Competitiveness through the Investment Climate: Ranking 23 Chinese Cities, Beijing: Finance and Econom- This research project examines several questions ics Publishing House, forthcoming) and a recently pub- relating to firm ownership and corporate governance in lished book (Linqun Jin and Nicholas Stern, eds., China: How did changes in ownership and corporate Economic Development: Theories and Practices, Beijing: governance affect the performance of Chinese firms? Economic Science Press, 2002). What wcre the effects of the wave of privatization and Results have been presented at the annual meeting corporatization in 1997? And how does corruption affect of the Chinese Economists Society in Hong Kong (China) investment by private firms? in 2002; an American Economic Association meeting in 'T'he study has assembled three data sets: data on Washington, D.C., in 2003; and at the Global Finance around 1,000 publicly listed firms for 1992-2002, data on Meeting at Beijing University in 2003. the ownership restructuring of around 1,000 firms in Responsibility: Development Research Group, Regula- 1997-98, and data on 3,000 private firms for 2001. Using tion and Competition Policy-Lixin Colin Xu (lxul@ these data, the study has empirically tested hypotheses worldbank.org). With Tian Zhu, Hong Kong Univer- derived from existing theories. Trhe analysis has led to sity of Science and Technology; Xiaozu Wang, six main findings: Fudan University, China; and Wei Li, University of * Public listing does not turn around the performance Virginia. of state-owned enterprises. Governance and Public Sector Management 131 Reports investments, even when they are despcrate to bc i. Wci,T'l'ing Lu, and Lixin Colin Xu. 2003. "Does Bribe Grease reelected and can provide more benefits to a larger Corrupt Bureaucrats?" World Bank, Development Research number of citizens by allocating resources to the public Group, Washington, D.C. good? Research shows that where voters arc uninformcd WN'ang, Xiaozu, Lixin Colin Xu, and Tian Zhu. Forthcoming. and politicians unable to make credible commitments "State-Owned Enterprises Going Public? The Case of China." before elections, government policy is skewed away Economics of 7Tansition. from universalistic government services toward goods that Xu, Lixin Colin, '['ian Zhu. and Yi-Mlin Lin. 2003. "Politician are more easily targeted and observed. Control, Agency Problems, and Ownership Reform: Evidence * Political checks and balances create a long under- from China." World Bank, Development Research Group, stood institutional dilemma: they make governmcnt Washington, D.C. promises (for example, not to expropriate) more credi- ble, but they also make it more difficult for governments The Impact of Institutions on Development to respond flexibly and in a timely manner to criscs. Which effect matters more for development? Research This ongoing, multiyear research effort investigates the shows that the credibility benefits of checks and balances effect of institutions on development. Early research are more important in international financial markets asked, What is the relationship between institutions and than are the flexibility costs. the efficiency of public investment-and between insti- Work in each of these areas is expected to shed light tutions and fiscal policy? What is the relationship between on optimal policy choices in different institutional and institutions, social polarization, conflict, and economic social settings (including postconflict socicties) and on development? NMore recent research has looked at imper- tradeoffs in institution building. fections in political markets-including social polariza- The work has contributed to several of the WVorld tion, lack of citizen information, and the inability of Bank's iVorldDevelopmentRepors, to a World Bank course political decisionmakers to make credible promises to on governance and anticorruption, and to economic and citizens-and their effects on such issues as the rule of sector work in the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and law and the provision of basic social services. Peru. In addition, the work is expected to influencc the The work is heavily empirical, relying on cross- design of infrastructure projects, advice in postconflict country statistical investigation that uses the World societies, and macroeconomic advice to countries. Bank's Database of Political Institutions. Theoretical The work has been presented in many venues, includ- advances are also being made, however, particularly in ing the American Political Science Association, the Amer- understanding how the preelectoral credibility of polit- ican Economic Association, Public Choice, and scminars ical competitors influences postelection behavior. at the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of '['he research has yielded a wide array of findings, Poland, the University of Washington, and the Univcr- including results relating to these questions: sity of California at San Diego. Why is raw public investment so high in countries Responsibility: Development Research Group, Regulation with insecure property rights, and why does it have a neg- and Competition Policy-Philip Keefer (pkceferC ligible or negative impact on growth? Research demon- worldbank.org). strates theoretically and empirically that institutional settings in which property rights are insecure lead gov- Reports ernments to underprovide high-quality public investment Keefer, Philip. 2002. "Clientelism, Credibility, and Deicocrac." but to engage in excessive rent seeking that takes the form World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. of unproductive public investment. . 2003. "All Democracies Are Not the Samc: ldcntifying the * Why do governments underprovide high-quality Institutions ThatNtatter for Growth and Convergence." World universal education and overprovide targeted public Bank, Development Research Group, Washington. D).C. 132 Governance and Public Sector Management 7)2003. S" )emocratization and Clientelism: Why Are Young der regions of four states in South India. 'P'his approach l)ciocracics Badly Governed?" W\'orld Bank, Development exploits the fact that villages on both sides of the bor- Rcscsrch Group, \Washington, D.C. ders are similar in a variety of ways-in their economies, Kccfcr. Philip, ind StuLti Kheimani. 2003. ")emocraec, Public languages spoken, climate and geography, and social FExpenditkires and the Poor." Policv Rcsearcih Norking Paper structures and practices. Fo discriminate between the .3164. \'orld Bank,l )e.elopment Researcl Group, Vashington, effect of decentralization reforms and that of other state DAL policies and political processes, the study will exploit Forthcoming. "Why DJo the Poor Receiv e Poor Services?" within-state variation in the implementation of different Atuomomai, ao l'olitiIl lliekli, (New[ Delhi). policies and control for as many other political processes Kccfcr. 'hilip, and Stcphcn Knack. 2002. "Boondoggles and Expro- as possible. priatio: Rcnr-Seeking and Policy D)istortion WVhen Property Data for the analysis will be collected through village Rights Are InsecuLre." Policy Research Working Paper 2910. and household surveys, interviews withpanciallavt mem- World Bank, I)c\elopmcnt Rcsearch Group, \Washington. D.C. bers, and the collection of election records and financial * 2003. "Social Polarization, Political Institutions, and Coun- statements of panchavati raj institutions. tr ( redirtworthiness." In Jac C. I Icckclman and l)ennis Coates, The research is expected to contribute to the general cd'.. (Col/otir'e(/,hoit: .sswYs in Honolr of Iam'n(arO/son. New York: understanding of the comparative advantages of differ- Springcr-\crlag. (Also issucd as Policy Research Working Paper ent methods of decentralization and the effect of decen- 2920, World Bank. Development Researeh Group, Washington, tralization on public service delivery, social exclusion, and ID).( .(( 2.) living standards in developing countries. *Forthcoming. "Social Capital, Social Norms, and the NeW Responsibility: Development Research Group, Povertv Institiutional Feonomics. In (Clatide Nlenard and Niary NI. Team-Vlijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org). With Tim ShirIcN; cds., Handlbook of.Vw Institutional Eono,nicr. Norwell, Besley, London School of Economics; and Rohini Pande, \IlaS'.: KIlucr Acacdcmic. Yale University. The Impact of Local Governance in India: Investment Climate in the Balkans: An Empirical Investigation Regulatory Governance 'I'his project will undertake an empirical analysis of the This research is investigating regulatory governance and conscqitiences of the recent decentralization of local market performance in the infrastructure sectors of the government in India, centered on thepanchay.aftiralinsti- Balkan countries and assessing the investment climate tUtiOlS. It will study the effects of decentralization on in the Balkans with a focus on regulatory governance political participation and collective action, the issues. Using data on foreign direct investment and rcg- inclusiorn of disadvantaged groups in these processes ulatory governance indicators, the study has estimated and their access to public services, and the functioning the extent to which cross-country differences in foreign of the public sector in service delivery. It will also inves- direct investment can be explained bv differences in tigate how local community characteristics such as the effectiveness of regulatory governancc and a host of ethnic diversity and income inequality affect such insti- other country-specific characteristics (such as size, devel- tLtiotial reform. In addition, taking advantage of the opment of infrastructure, and rate of economic growth). diversity of local decentralization processes across The empirical findings confirm what theory predicts: India. it wVill undertakc a rigorous microeconometric regulatory governance matters. Whether measured by evaluation of the relative effectiveness of different composite indicators or on the basis of individual surveys moodels of decentralization. or polls, governance seems to have a statistically signif- 'I'he study will rise a natural experiment to isolate the icant and quantitatively important effect on foreign direct causl eCffect of decentralization by focusing on the bor- investment. Governonce and Public Sector Management 133 But while the study, using panel data, has identified coefficient of income inequality, and geographic significant correlations between foreign direct invest- controls. With recently developed spatial cconometric ment and measures of regulatory governance, the empir- techniques, the study also tested the effects of provision ically established relationships break down after 1999. As in neighboring municipalities and spatially autocorre- the study collects additional data for later years, it will lated errors. Using detailed survcy data and probit attempt to identify a potential structural shift in the models, the study then analyzed the impact of public implied relationship between regulatory governance and service provision-in addition to political, sociocco- foreign direct investment. nomic, and geographic factors-on individuals' ease of Findings have been used in economic and sector access to health care. work in Bulgaria and incorporated into a World Bank The results show that greater levels of health scr- Policy Research Report (loannis Kessides, Reforming vices are provided in urban areas, richer areas, and arcas Infrastructure: Privatization, Regulation, and Competition, with greater income inequality. Evidence suggests that New York: Oxford University Press, forthcoming). A citizens can attract better public services by going to presentation on the broader issues of regulatory gover- the polls. Decentralized municipalities provide morc nance and its effect on investment in infrastructure was services only if good governance accompanies deccn- made in a government seminar in Sofia. tralization. And there are strong neighborhood and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Regulation spatial autocorrelation effects. and Competition Policy-loannis Kessides (ikessides@ Households living in municipalities with better pub- worldbank.org). With Takis Papapanagiotou. lic health services are much more likely to report that they have access to health care (that is, were able to see a health Migration, Decentralization, and Public professional when they needed to). Ethnic minorities. Goods Provision to the Poor poorer households, and rural households are much lcss likely to have access. Households in municipalitics with In most developing countries with large informal sectors, a higher voting rate and a mayor more politically con- redistribution occurs primarily through subsidized nected to state legislators also report better access. public services rather than through direct transfers. So Responsibility: Development Research (Group. Infrastruc- to evaluate the welfare of the poor requires determining ture and Environment-Maureen Cropper (mcroppcr@ whether public services are allocated to areas that most worldbank.org); and Latin America and the Caribbean need them. This research investigated what determines Region, Brazil Anchor-Andrew Sunil Rajkumar. WVith the allocation of public health services (clinics, hospital Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, University of Colorado at beds, health professionals) across Brazilian municipali- Boulder. ties and whether the allocation of these services, along with underlying political and economic factors, has an Report impact on poor people's access to health care. NMobarak, Ahmed Mlushfiq, Andrew Sunil Rajkumar, and Nl\aureen The study first investigated the effects of politics, Cropper. 2003. "'f'he Political Economy of Health Services decentralization, affluence, race, geography, and income Provision and Access in Brazil." IPaper presentcd at thc North- inequality on the per capita allocation of public services east tUniversities Development Consortium Conference, Yale across municipalities in 1998. Explanatory variables University, New Haven, Conn., September 22. included political participation by constituents, intensity of political competition between parties, the identity Operational Policy and Software Tool and ideological bent of the party in power, the relative for Institutional Analysis importance of federal (or state) and local governments in decisionmaking, the presence of ethnic and religious The World Bank has increasingly recognized the impor- minorities and ethnic diversity, average incomes, a Gini tance of the political and institutional setting in 134 Governance and Public Sector Management determining the success or failure of the projects it pendent of whether these countries experienced signif- finances. Moreover, in recent years there has been grow- icant democratization between 1990 and 2000. Thus ing interest in the World Bank in ensuring that its pro- while political liberalization and democratization are jects have a sustainable institutional development impact. prerequisites for the emergence of a legislature, they do In response, this project developed a draft operational not by themselves explain why some democratic policy on institutional analysis-and an accompanying countries have emerging legislatures while others do software tool-to provide World Bank staff with a guide not. to assessing the capacity, commitment, and incentives of Second, the capacity and authority of a legislature as key counterparts to implement a project. The aim is to a corporate unit and thus its prominence in the policy- increase the likelihood that projects will have a positive making process vary as a function of two sets of effect on countries' public institutions. characteristics: The draft operational policy and software tool guide * Three structural characteristics affecting all mem- staff members in conducting institutional analysis by bers of the legislature-the agrarian nature of most raising questions, which require the users to collect data African countries and the clientelist form of politics to (largely quantitative). Pilot applications showed that which it gives rise, the formal rules specifying the these instruments added value to the project design powers of the legislature, and the terms of service for process, leading to some useful revisions of project members. designs. But without strong management and budget * Individual characteristics that differentiate groups support, task managers would generally find the analytic of legislators. demands of the operational policy to be onerous. The Before the late 1990s the structural characteristics impact of the instruments will depend on a policy served as disincentives for legislators to assert the cor- decision on whether institutional analysis for project porate power of the institution to which they belonged. implementation and sustainability will be required (or Rather than devoting their efforts to deliberating and expected) in designing World Bank projects. amending laws, overseeing the executive, and imple- Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- menting policy, legislators focused almost exclusively ment Network, Public Sector Management Division- on serving their rural constituents. Following the second Poul Engberg-Pedersen (pengbergpedersen@worldbank and especially the third round of multiparty elections in .org). the late 1990s and early 2000s, the composition of the legislatures changed. Where the membership became Parliamentary Oversight in Africa younger and more educated, and especially where parity arose between the government and the opposition, The World Bank is committed to strengthening state coalitions formed to first change the terms of service institutions of accountability in Sub-Saharan Africa and for legislators and then enhance the powers of the other regions. Yet legislative institutions in Africa have legislatures. received little systematic examination despite their Some legislatures, such as the Kenya National Assem- increasing visibility in some countries. This study assessed bly, have become players in policymaking. Others, such the evolving role of these institutions in several of the as the Ghana National Assembly, aspire to do so. But countries that have made the most progress in democ- some, like the National Assembly in Senegal, remain ratic reforms-Benin, Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal. Com- weak. The World Bank will need to engage more sys- parative analysis of the results of field interviews tematically with legislatures where they are expanding conducted in the summer of 2002 led to two principal their role in policy. findings. Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Public Sector First, the capacity and authority of legislative insti- Reform and Capacity-Guenter Heidenhof (gheidenhof@ tutions vary considerably across African countries inde- worldbank.org). Governance and Public Sector Management 135 Report Hoff, Karla R., and Joseph E. Stiglitz. 2004. "A Dynamic NIodel Barkan, Joel D., Ladipo Ademolekun, and Yongmei Zhou. Forth- of the Demand for the Rule of Law." World Bank, D)evelop- coming. "Emerging Legislatures: Institutions of Horizontal ment Research Group, Washington, D.C.: and Columbia lini- Accountability." In Brian Levy, ed., Governance and Public Sec- versity, New York. torAManagement in Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. . Forthcoming. "After the Big Bang? Obstacles to the Emcr- gence of the Rule of Law in Postcommunist Societics." Political Economy in the Transition Economies Almerican Economic Reiew. - Forthcoming. "The 'ransition Process in Postconmmu- This study seeks to improve the understanding of the nist Societies: 'oward a Political Economy of Propcrty Rights." political economy of transition economies. It addresses In Bertil Tungodden, Nicholas Stern, and Ivar Kolstad. cds., a question that is central to transition economies (and Toward Pro-Poor Policies: Aid. Institutions, and Globialization. many developing countries) as well as to the World New York: Oxford IJniversity Press. Bank's agenda on governance and corruption: Will those who obtained assets at large discounts (or stole them) at Public Policy toward Nongovernmental the beginning of the transition become the new vanguard Organizations in Developing and of the rule of law, or will they be indifferent to or try to Transition Economies frustrate the establishment of the rule of law? To investigate this question, the study is developing Over the past decade nongovernmental organizations a series of models and assembling data on political devel- (NGOs) have become progressively more important in opments and inequality from the Russian Federation developing countries. In many, they now outnumber and other transition economies. The aim is to shed light firms and account for growing shares of economic activ- on the obstacles to the emergence of the rule of law in ity. Yet there has been little economic research on NGO transition economies and on policies that could be activity, and what there has been has focused on activ- adopted to influence the political will to establish the rule ity in industrial countries. This research project investi- of law. Findings will relate to the endogenous formation gates fundamental questions about NGO activity in of political coalitions for and against a rule-of-law state developing and transition economies: Should govern- and will clarify how macroeconomic policy and the ments and donors subsidize or favor NGO activity? And method of privatization matter for the emergence of if so, how much so, and through what mechanisms? demand for the rule of law. Drawing on existing research in the social sciences, The project is organizing a conference on the politi- the project has developed a theoretical framework to cal economy of transition economies, to be held at the explain NGO activity and assess whether subsidizing or Center for Economic Research and Graduate Educa- favoring NGOs is appropriate for reasons of economic tion (CERGE) in Prague on September 10-11, 2004. efficiency or equity. It has also designed and carricd out Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macro- country studies analyzing NGO activities in Bangladesh economics and Growth-Karla R. Hoff (khoff@ and Uganda. The country studies surveycd a random sam- worldbank.org). With Joseph E. Stiglitz, Columbia ple of NGOs and collected data on uses and sources of University. funds, activities, staffing, grants received, and commu- nity satisfaction with NGOs. Reports The research has found that NGOs in Uganda tend Hoff, Karla R. 2003. "Can Privatization Come Too Soon? Politics to be small, underfunded (a few NGOs attract most after the Big Bang in Postcommunist Societies." In Richard donor funds), and involved primarily in consciousness Arnott, Bruce Greenward, Ravi Kanbur, and Barry Nalebuff, raising. By contrast, NGOs in Bangladesh are larger, eds., Economicsforan Imperfect World. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT financed with internally generated funds, and almost Press. universally involved in microfinance. Surveys show that 136 Governance and Publit Sector Management while satisfaction with NGOs is generally high, NGOs University; Ray Fisman and Julia Galef, Columbia Uni- are less accessible to people in poorer communities. versity; Anna Fruttero, New York University; and William 'l'he findings have been discussed with World Bank Jack, Georgetown University. staff, rcpresentatives of NGOs and the two governments, and the broader donor communities in Dhaka and Kam- Reports pala. The findings in Ulganda are assisting the govern- Barr, Abigail, and Marcel Fafchamps. "A Client-Community Assess- ment in dcsigning new policies for NGO sector ment of the NGO Sector in Uganda." governance. T hose in Bangladesh were incorporated Barr, Abigail, Mlarcel Fafchamps, and Trudi Owens. "The Resources into the WVorld Bank's MVorldDeaelopmnentReport 2004:.1lak- and Governance of Nongovernmental Organizations in Uganda." i1m{Ser-uices I l orkior Poor People (New York: Oxford Uni- Fruttero, Anna, and Varun Gauri. "Location Decisions and NGO v ersirt Press, 2003). Mlotivation: Evidence from Rural Bangladesh." Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- Jack, William. "Public Policy toward NGOs in Developing vices-V.arun Gauri (vgauri@worldbank.org). With Mar- Countries." cel Fafchamps, Abigail Barr, and 'rrudi Owens, Oxford Governance and Public Sector Management 137 Bank Research Output The documents listed below are the output of research * WorldBank WorkingPapers. This series, which super- and policy analysis at the World Bank in fiscal 2002 and sedes the World Bank Discussion Papers and World 2003. To provide maximum coverage of such output, Bank Technical Papers series, includes papers present- research is defined for the purposes of this list in a ing results of general research and country studies for a broader rather than a narrower sense. Generally, copies wide range of development practitioners as well as highly of Bank publications (categories A and E) can be technical papers intended for specialists. purchased online at http://publications.worldbank.org/ * Otherpublished series. These series typically focus on ecommerce, from the Bank's distributors (see list on last a specialized topic (such as evaluation methods and page of this volume), or from the Bank bookstore. Copies results from the Operations Evaluation Department, or of working papers and background papers (categories findings and training and learning courses from the World F-H) can be obtained from the authors or listed Bank Bank Institute). departments (at the address on this volume's title page). F Policy Research Working Papers. These working In addition, the full text of some working papers series papers are a vehicle for quick dissemination, often in an can be found on the Bank's Web site (http://www unpolished form, of findings of work under way in the .worldbank.org). Reprints of articles from the Bank's Bank. Papers in this series are posted on the Web at research journals (category C) may be requested from the http://econ.worldbank.org. authors; the full text of recent articles is also available on G. Other Bank working papers. These papers are pro- the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/research/journals/ duced and distributed by units throughout the Bank. index.htm. Other published material can be purchased They quickly disseminate findings of departmental from the publishers (categories B and D). The following research and are targeted primarily to specialists in the Bank. categories of research output are listed: H. Background papers to World Development Report A. Research-oriented books written by Bank staff and 2003: Sustainable Development in a Dynamic llorld- published by the Bank or by other publishers. This list Transforming Institutions, Growth, and Quality of Life and also includes periodic data publications, such as World World Development Report 2004: Making Services lWorkfor Development Indicators, that feed subsequent research. Poor People. These papers are commissioned from B. Research by Bank staff published as part of collected researchers inside and outside the Bank. Some also come volumes of research papers. out as Policy Research Working Papers or in other forms. C. Articles appearing in the Bank's two research jour- nals, the World Bank Economic Review and World Bank A. Books by Bank Researchers Research Observer D. Articles related to Bank research published in Abadzi, Helen. 2003. Improving Adult Literacy Outcomes: Lessons other professional journals. from Cognitive Research for Developing Countries. Washington, E. World Bank Discussion Papers, Technical Papers, D.C.: World Bank. Working Papers, and other Bank series publications. Aidt, Toke, and Zafiris Tzannatos. 2002. Unions and Collective * World Bank Discussion Papers. This series provides Bargaining: Economic Effects in a Global Environment. Direc- detailed results of work on research topics or country stud- tions in Development Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ies that may be of interest to development practitioners. Anderson, Kym, and Bernard Hoekman, eds. 2002. The Global * World Bank Technical Papers. This is an outlet for Trading System. 4 vols. London and New York: I. B. Tauris. research and studies that are highly technical and aimed Arup, Mitra. 2003. Networks, Occupational Choice, and Poverty: at a narrower audience. An Exegesis on Delhi Slums. Delhi: Manohar. 138 Barancs, Yair, and Ronald C. C. Cuming. 2001. 7he Albanian Deininger, Klaus. 2003.LandPoliciesforGrowthandPovertyReduc- (A/late ri/l.ac .Sr.stem Handbook. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. tion. World Bank Policy Research Report. New York: Oxford l3atra, Gecta, Daniel Kaufmann, and Andrew H. WV. Stone. 2003. University Press. lovctineut (limate around the WJorld: loices of the Firms from the Demery, Lionel, Stefano Paternostro, and Luc Christiaensen. llor/d Bnsiness lEnw-ionment Survey. NVashington, D.C.: World 2002. Growth, Distribution, and Povertv in Africa: Alessages from B3ank. the 1990s. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. l3cckermai, Pauil, and Andr6s Solimano. 2002. Eruadorr Crisis and Demirguc-Kunt, Ashl, and Ross Levine, eds. 2001. Financial Dlollaaifation. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Structure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Comparison of Ilourguignon, Franiois, and Luiz Pereira da Silva, eds. 2003. The Banks, Mtfarkets, andDevelopment. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT'l Press. Inipatt of b>tonomin IPolicies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Dessus, Sebastien, Julia Devlin, and Raed Safadi, eds. 2001. Fvaluation hleniques and Thols. New York: Oxford University Towards Arab andEuro-MfedRegional/Integration. Paris: Organ- Press. isation for Economic Co-operation and Development. l3rixi, Hanal Polackova, and Allen Schick. eds. 2002. Governmentat Devarajan, Shantayanan, and E Halsey Rogers, eds. 20(02. Ilorld Risk: Continient l.iabilities and Fiscal Risk. New York: Oxford Bank Economists'Forum. Vol. 2. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Utnivcrsitv I'ress. Dror, David M., and Alexander S. Preker, eds. 2002. Social 13rook, Penelope J., and 'I'inothy C . Irwin, eds. 2003. Infrastruc- Reinsurance: A New Approach to Sustainable Community Health turestr loor People: Public Policy for Private Provision. Washington, Financing. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Geeneva: I).( : World Bank. International Labour Organization. B3ruce. Johln XW., and Robin Mearns. 2(0(02. Natural Resource Fawzy, Samiha, ed. 2002. Globalization andFirm Competitiveness in the | llanagenient and land Polio in Developing Countries: Lessons Aliddle East and North Africa Region. Washington, D.C.: NVorld I.arned ai//de .\e- Challenges for the World Bank. London: Bank. International lnstitutc fir Environment and Development. Ferroni, Marco, and Ashoka Mody, eds. 2002. International Public (Camiphell,lTin. 2003. *1 .', 'Re.olution: Decentralizationandthe Goods: Incentives, AMeasurement, and Financing. Boston: Kluwer Rio9 of IPolitical PIatiripation iN Latin American Cities. Pittsburgh: Academic. U nivcrsitv of Pittshurgh Press. Fields, Gary, and Guy P. Pfeffermann, eds. 2003. Pathwavs Out of' (Caprio, Gerard, Jr., Patrick Honohan, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, eds. Poverty: Private Firms and Economic Mobilitv in Developing 2002. Finan,ial Liberalization: How, Far How Fast? New York: Countries. Boston: Kluwer Academic. Camhridgc liniversitv Press. Foster, Stephen, Ricardo Hirata, Daniel Gomes, Monica D'Elia, Caprio. Gerard. Jr., Patrick Honohan, and Dimitri Vittas, eds. 2002. and Marta Paris. 2002. Groundwater Quality Protection: A Guide l'inancial Sector Poliofor l)eveloping Countries: A Reader New York: for Water Utilities, lunicipal Authorities, and Environment Oxford 1.nivcrsiry Press. Agencies. Washington, D.C.: XVorld Bank. (Cariicliacl, Jcffrc. and Nlichael Pomerleano. 2002. Development Freestone, David, and Surya Subedi, eds. 2002. Contemporary and Ri-ulation of Non-Bank Financial Institutions. Washington, Issues in International Law: A Collection of the Josephine Onoh 1.C.: \World B3ank. MemorialLectures. Boston: Kluwer Law International. Collier, Paul, and David Dollar. 2002. Globalization, Growth, and Freire, Mila, and John Petersen, with Marcela Huertas and Miguel PoIert.: Iluileling an Inclusive lW orld Economy. World Bank Valadez, eds. 2003. SubnationalCapita/Alarkets in Developing Coun- I'olic\ Rcsearch Report. New York: Oxford University Press. tries: From Theory to Practice. New York: Oxford University Press. Collier, Paul, I,ani Elliott, Hdvard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Freire, Nlila, and Nlario Polese, with Pamela Echeverria. 20(03. Re na Il-Que rol, and Nicholas Sambanis. 2003. Breakingthe C(on- Connecting Cities with Macroeconomic Concerns: 7he.Missing .ink- flirl fI-ap. C.i.i lIar and Deuelopnient Poliey. NVorld Bank Policy Do Local Public Services Matter? A Case Study of Five Cities. Rcscarch Report. Newy York: Oxford University Press. Nlontreal: Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique: and de leycvr, Jo\. and Linda Wavcrlcy Brigden. eds. 2003. Tobacco Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Control Polio,: Straotecics, .S'uesses, and Setbacks. Washington, Fretes-Cibils, Vicente, Marcelo M. Giugale. and Jose Roberto D).C.: \World Bank: and Ottawa: Research for International L6pez Calix, eds. 2003. Ecuador:An EconomicandSocialAgenda 'Iobacco Conitrol. in the New Millennium. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bank Research Output 139 I nnck, Bernard, and Lodovico Pizzati, eds. 2002. I.abor, Employ- Ingco, NMerlinda, ed. 2002. .ghricnlture, Tr-ade, anTd the 1110: ment, and Social Policies in the F7 Enlargement Process: ( ; .: ~. Creatinga Diading Envirnnment for Ievelopnwnt Directions in Perspecti-ves and Policy Options. WVashington, D.C.: World Bank. Development Series. \Vashington, D.( .: \Vorld l3ank. 2003. Earopean Integration, Regional Polity, and Growth: International Finance Corporation. 2002. Developing lW/nc: 11w Lessons and Prospects. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Business (7ase for Snstainabilitr in Emerging.l larkets. Washington, (iiugale, Nlarcelo NI., Olivier Lafourcade, and Connie Luff. eds. D.C. 2003. Colombia: The Economic Foundation of Peace. WVashington, lqbal, Farrukh, and Shujiro Itrata. eds. 2002.Sma/lhFirm l)Ynatnisn D.C.: World Bank. in EastlAsia. Boston: Kluwer Acadcmic. Grootaert, Christiaan, and'l'hierryvan Bastelaer, eds. 2002. The Role Jordan, Callv, and Giovanni Nlajnoni. 2002. Finamial Rcn/latorv of Social Capital in Development: An Empirical Assessment. NeW Harmonization and the Globalization of Finame. Washington, York: Cambridge Ilniversity Press. D.C.: WVorld Bank. 2002. Understanding and Measuring Social Capital: A Multi- Kawashima, Shigekatzu, 'ramara Butler-johldroN, (,eorge Annan- disciplinary Toolfor Practitioners. Directions in Development dale, and Farhed Shah. 2003. Resernoir Coneion: Eonomic Series. Washington, I).C.: World Bank. and Engineering Evalnation of Alternative Stratrgi es for -1llang Hanson, James A., Patrick Honohan, and Giovanni Majnoni, eds. Sedimentation in .\ .. Rcr-croils. Vol. 2, RFSCOAV .IPodel and 2003. Globalization and National Financial SYste,ms. New York: lUserMlanual. Waslhington, D.C.: \Vorld Banik. Oxford tniversity lPress. Kiss, Agi. 2002. Building a Sustainable Futu,re: 7heS Afiira Renion H-ewawasam, IndU, ed. 2002. 11anagi ngthe.1farineand GoastalEnvi- Environment Strategy. D irections in De\elopment Srien . ron,ment of Sub-Saharan Africa: Strategic Directions. Washington, Washington, D.C.: World Bank. D.C.: World Bank. Klein, Nlichael U., and Bita Hadjimiiiclhacl. 20)03. 1hw Private Hoekman, Bernard, and Nlichel NI. Kostecki. 2001. 7hg Political Sector in Development: Entrepreneurship, Regulation, andt Compet-t Economyv of the BIorld TradingSystem.n Thge ITO andBevond. New itive Disciplines. WNiasliington. D).C.: W orld Bank. York: Oxford University Press. Klugman, Jeni, ed. 2002. A Sourrebookjfor Povertv Rednction Sitre- IFloekman, Bernard, and Will Nlartin, eds. 2001. Developing (Coun- gies. Vol. 1, Cor 7Tehniqnuc and (.ross-Cnttinglssncs \Vashillgton. trier and the Il-7O0:A Proartive Agenda. Oxford: Blackwell. D.C.: World 13ank. Hoekman, Bernard, and Patrick Nlesserlin. 2(002. Harnessing Trade Knack, Stephen. ed. 2)003. D)eorocracy. Governance, and Gr/o(t/1. Ann for Development and Growth in the Aliddle East: Report hv the Arbor: University of Nlichigan Press. Council on Foreign Relations Studvl Group on Miiddle East Trade Lazarus, Suellen l.ambert, ed. 2(0(02. 7ie International/ Finanue Options. New York: Council on Foreign Relations. Corporation and Its Role in Globalization: HighigrhtsJfonio llFCs Hoekman, Bernard, Philip English, and Aaditya Nlattoo, eds. 2002. Participants leeting in llashington, D.C., lune 6-7. 2001. WaIsh- Development. Thade, and the WT70: A Handbook. Washington. ington, D.C.: WVorld Bank. D.C.: WVorld Bank. Levine, Ruth E., Amanda Glassman, and Mliriam Schncidmoan. Holzmann, Robert, Mitchell Orenstein. and N\lichal Rutkowski, eds. 2001. The Health of llometn in Latin .Anerica anfd the (Caribbean. 2003. Pension Reform in Europe: Process and Progress. Directions Washington, D.C.: WNorld 13ank and Inter-American Develop- in Development Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ment Bank. Honohan, Patrick, ed. 2(003. Kixration of Financial Intermediation: Loayza, Norman. and Klaus Schmidt-Htbbel, eds. 2(0()2.. llonetalry Theory and Practicefor Emerging Economies. New York: Oxford Policy: Rules anfd liansmni.ssion Mlechanisnis. Saintiago: Ccntral ITniversity Press. Bank of Chile. Hopper, Richard, ed. 20(02. (onstruttingKnowledge Societies:NVeta Chal- Loayza, Norman, and Raimundo Soto, eds. 20(02. I/ilation 1iir et- lengesfor 7i.-tiar Edduatiion. Directions in Development Series. ing: Design, Perforlmanc.r ( . . . Santiago: Central B3ank of Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Chile. Imparato, Ivo, and Jeff Ruster. 2003. Slum Upgradingand Partici- Locksley, Gareth, and Daavid Satola. 2(0(02. llorld Rank: 7he, pation:LerssonsfromI,atin America. Directions in Development Privatization Agenda for Miecomns in Fnrope aind (.Centrm/ .I.ia. Series. Washington, D.C.: WNorld Bank. London: KPG, IntCrnational. 140 Bank Research Output Nlarc. Alcxandrc, Nora Dudwick, and Elizabeth Gomart, eds. Ringold, Dena, Mlitchell A. Orenstein, and Erika Wilkens. 2003. 2002. ltheu Things Fat/Apart: Qualitaive Studies of Poverty in the Roma in an Expanding Europe: Breaking the Poverty Cycle. ForlnerSooviet Union. WVashington. D.C.: World Bank. NVashington, D.C.: World Bank. Nlarkandva. Anil, Patrice Harou, Lorenzo Giovanni Bellu, and Robb, Caroline NI. 2002. Can the Poor JIst.aFn- .P , 'Participatory Vito Cistulli. 2002. Environmental Economics for Sustainable Poverty Assessments in the Developing Torld. Washington, D.C.: (Growth: A1 Handbook for Prac titioners. Northampton, Mass.: World Bank. Fdward Elgar. Robinson. Nlarguerite S. 2002. The .llicrofinanceRevolution. Vol. 2, Marshall. Katherine, and Olivier Butzbach, eds. 2002. New Social L.essonsfrom Indonesia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Policy .I gendas tor Europe and Asia: nha//enges Experiences and Rodden, Jonathan, Gunnar S. Eskeland, and Jennie Litvack, eds. l.essons. Washington. D).C.: World Bank. 2003. Fiscal Decentralization and the Challenge of Hard Budget Martin, \Will, and Mari Pangestu, eds. 2003. Options for Global Constraints. Cambridge, Mass.: NIIT Press. Drade Reformn: .1 V`iewi from the Asia-Pacific. New York: Ruf. Francois, and Frederic Lancon, eds. 2002. From Slash andBurn Cambridge [ fniversity Press. to Replanting. Green Revolutions in the Indonesian 77plands. Wash- Nlaskus, Kcith F., and John S. Wilson, eds. 2001. Quantiying the ington, D.C.: World Bank. Impact of Tthhical Barriers to Trade: Can ItBeDone?Ann Arbor: Sadoff, Claudia WV., Dale Whittington, and David Grey. 2003. Inivcrsity of Nlichigan Press. Africa , International Rivers: An Economic Perspective. Directions NMattoo, Aaditva. and Antonia Carzaniga, eds. 2003. I/oving People in Development Series. Washington, D.C.: NVorld Bank. to Dlciver.Scr'vi fs. 'Irade and l)evelopment Series. New York: Sauve, Pierre, and Aaditya Mlattoo, eds. 2003. Domestic Regulation Oxford I 'niversity Press. and Service TradeLiberalization. Trade and Development Series. NlcNlahon, Gary, and Felix Remy, eds. 2001. Land .Mlines and the New ,York: Oxford University Press. (ommnnoitt: .Sot ioeconomic and Environmental F - in Latin Schiff Mlaurice, and L. Alan Winters. 2002. RegionalIntegration and .lAmerica. Canada, and Spain. Washington, D.C.: World Development. New York: Oxford University Press. Biank. Schreiner, Mark, and Jacob Yaron. 2002. Development Finance Insti- Nlingat, Alain, Jee-Peng Fan, and Shobhana Sosale, eds. 2002. tutions: MIleasuning Their.Subsidy. Directions in Development loolsfor Education PolicyT Analysis. Washington, D.C.: World Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. l3ank. Stern, Nicholas. 2002. A Strategy for Development. Washington, Narayan. I)ecpa, ed. 2002. Empowerrment and Poverty Reduction: D.C.: World Bank. .1 Sourebook. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. TFenev, Stoyan, and Chunlin Zhang. 2002. Corporate Governance Naravan, IDeepa, and Patti Petesch, eds. 2002. I oires of the Poor Vol. and Enterprise Reform in China: Building the Institutions of 3, Fromn.1iany I.ands. New York: Oxford tniversity Press. Modern Alarkets. Washington, D.C.: International Finance lPalmieri. Alessandro, Farhed Shah, George Annandale, and Ariel Corporation. Dinar. 2003. Reservoir Conservation: Economic and Engineering Van Greuning, Hennie, and Sonja Brajovic Bratanovic. 2003. Evaluation of Alternativi-etrategiesforl Managing Sedimentation in AnalyzingandMllanagingBankingRisk:.A FrameworkforAssessing % . . Rese-voi,s. Vol. 1, 7he RESGCONApproach. WVashington, Comporate Governance and Financial Risk. Washington, D.C.: D).C.: World Bank. World Bank. 'leslsko\ic, loris, and Nicholas Stern, eds. 2002. Annua/llorldBank Van Puymbroeck, Rudolf V., ed. 2002. 7he WorldBankLegalReview: Con/fernre on Developmnent Economics 200I12)002. New York: Law andJusticeforDevelopment. Vol. 1. 'I'he Hague: Kluwer Law Oxford lIniversity Press. International. 2003. Annual IloorI Bank Conference on DevelopmentEconomics Wilson, John S., and Victor 0. Abiola, eds. 2003. Standards anddGlobal 203:7 7/hT Xea Reformn Agenda. New York: Oxford LTniversity Trade: A Toice forAfrica. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Press. World Bank. 2001. Global Economic Prospects .. t1. U Trade Wl ork Rcinikka, Rit\a, and Paul Collier, eds. 2002. l.gandas Recovery: for the Uorlds Poor Washington, D.C. 7The Ro/c of Farms, Firnis, and Government. Washington, D.C.: . 2001. Transition: The First 7fn Years-it nalysis and Lessons W\orld Blaink. for Eastern Europe andthe lFormer Soviet Union. NVashington, D.C. Bank Research Output 141 - 2002. African Development Indicators 2002. Washington, loung, NMary Eming, ed. 2002. From Early Child Development to D.C. Human Development: Investing in Our Children :' Future. - . 2002. Building Trust: Developing the Rnssian Financial Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Sector Washington, D.C. Yusuf, Shahid. 2003. Innovative East Asia: 7he Future of Growth. New - 2002. A CaseforAid: Buildinga Consensus for Development York: Oxford [University Press. Assistance. Washington, D.C. Yusuf, Shahid, and Simon J. Evenett. 2002. Can EastAsia Compete? - 2002. Cities on the MtTove: A World Bank Urban Transport Innovation forGlobalilMariets. New York: Oxford IUniversitv Press. Strategy Review. Washington, D.C. - . 2002. Education and HIVIAIDS: A Window of Hope. Wash- B. Book Chapters by Bank Researchers ington, D.C. - . 2002. Global Development Finance 2002. Washington, Agenor, Pierre-Richard. 2002. "Nlonetary Policy under Flexible D.C. Exchange Rates: An Introduction to Inflation 'Iargeting." In 2002. Global Economic Prospects 2003: Investing to tUnlock Norman Loavza and Raimundo Soto, eds., I . . Tar eting: Global Opportunities. Washington, D.C. Design, Performiance, ( ......,. Santiago: Central Bank of Chile. 2002. Information and Communication Technologies: A Wlorld Amelina, rNaria. 2002. "What 'lIurns the Kolkhoz into a Firm? Bank Group Study. Washington, D.C. Regional Policies and the Elasticity of Budget Constraints." In .2002. The Little Data Book 2002. Washington, D).C. David J. O'Brien and Stephen K. Wegren, eds., Rural Reform 2002. The Little Green Data Book 2002. Washington, D.C. in Post-Soviet Russia. Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson 2002. Poverty Reduction and the lWorld Bank: Progress in Center Press; and Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Liniversitv Press. Operationalizingthe IIDR 2000/2001. Washington, D.C. Anderson, Jock, Donald F Larson, and Panos Varangis. 2002. - . 2002. Private Solutions for Infrastructure in Cambodia. "Agricultural NMarkets and Risk: Nlanagement of the Latter, Not Washington, D.C. the Former." In Ross Garnaut, ed., Resouiirce,lanage.ientin,Asia .2002. Reducing Vulnerability andlincreasing Opportunitv: Social Parific Developing Countries. (Canberra: Asia Pacific lPress. Protection in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington, Brautigam, Deborah, and NMichael Woolcock. 2002. "Micro-States D.C. in a Global Economy: 'I'he Role of Institutions and Net-works - .2002. Wlorld Bank Atlas 2002. Washington, D.C. in Nlanaging \ulnerability and Opportunity." In S. NMansoob - .2002. WorldDevelopmentIndicatois 2002. Washington, D.C. NIurshed, ed., Globalization, Mlarginalization, and Development. - . 2002. IVorldDevelopmentReport 20t3:SustainableDevelop- New York: Routledge. mentin a Dynamic World-ThansformingInstitutions, Growth, and Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. 2003. "On Quality of Life. 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"Supporting Communities in Transition: England, and Northampton, Mass.: Edward Elgar. The Impact of the Armenian Social Investment Fund." lVorld Wang, Hua. 2()03. "Can China Grow and Safeguard Its Environ- Bank Economic Review 16(2): 219-40. ment? The Case of Industrial Pollution." In Nicholas C. Hope, Clarke, George, Robert Cull, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Dennis 'lao Yang, and Mu Yang Li, eds., Ho' Faracross the River: Susana NI. Sanchez. 2003. "Foreign Bank Entry: Experience, ('hinese Policy Reform atthe .llilennium. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford Implications for Developing Economies, and Agenda for t Tnisersitv Press. Further Research." 11orldBank Research Observer 18(1): 25-59. Webb, Stcphen B. 2003. "Developing Countries with Histories Collier, Paul. Stefan Dercon, and John Nlackinnon. 2002. "Den- of Federalism and Fiscal Deccntralization: Argentina- sity versus Quality in Health Care Provision: tUsing Household Hardening the Provincial Budget Constraint." 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"What Have We Learned "Tl rade Policy Options for Chile: The Importance of Market from a Decade of Empirical Research on Growth? It's Not Access." World Bank Economic Review 16(1): 49-79. Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth NModels." Hayami, Yujiro. 2001. "Ecology, History, and Development: World Bank Economic Review 15(2): 177-219. A Perspective from Rural Southeast Asia." WorldBank Research Edwards, Alejandra Cox. 2002. "Gender Effects of Social Security Observer 16(2): 169-98. Reform in Chile." 11orld Bank Economic Review) 16(3): 321-43. Henderson, Vernon. 2002. "Urbanization in Developing Coun- Eichengreen, Barry. 2001. "Capital Account Liberalization: What tries." VWorld Bank Research Observer 17(1): 89-112. Do Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?" World Bank Economic Hertel, Thomas, Bernard Hoekman, and Will Martin. 2002. "Devel- Review, 15(3): 341-65. oping Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiations." Estache, Antonio, and Martin A. Rossi. 2002. "How Different Is IVorld Bank Research Observer 17(1): 113-40. the Efficiency of Public and Private Water Companies in Asia?" Hoekman, Bernard, Francis Ng, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2002. WVorldBank Economic Reviewe 16(1): 139-48. "Eliminating Excessive Tariffs on Exports of Least Devel- Fallon, Peter R., and Robert E. B. Lucas. 2002. "The Impact of oped Countries." World Bank Economic Review 16(1): 1-21. Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Jack, William. 2002. "Public Intervention in Health Insurance Poverty: A Review of Evidence." WorldBank Research Observer Markets: Theory and Four Examples from Latin America." 17(1): 21-45. IVorld Bank Research Observxer 17(1): 67-88. Filmer, Deon, Jeffrey S. Hammer, and Lant H. Pritchett. 2002. Kaminsky, Graciela, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2002. "Emerging "Weak Links in the Chain II: A Prescription for Health Policy Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk in Poor Countries." 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IVorldBank Firm's-Eve View of Commercial Policy and Fiscal Reforms in Economic Review 16(1): 109-37. Cameroon." Wlorld Bank Economic Review' 16(3): 449-72. Limao, Nuno, and Anthony J. Venables. 2001. "Infrastructure, Gisselquist, David, John Nash, and Carl Pray. 2002. "Deregulat- Geographical Disadvantage, Transport Costs, and Trade." World ing the 'I'ransfer of Agricultural Technology: Lessons from Bank Economic Review 15(1): 451-79. Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Zimbabwe." WorldBank Research Nlackinnon, John, and Ritva Reinikka. 2002. "How Research Can Observer 17(2): 237-65. Assist Policy: The Case of Economic Reforms in Uganda." Gwilliam, Ken, and Ajay Kumar. 2003. "How Effective Are World Bank Research Observer 17(2): 267-92. Second-Generation Road Funds? A Preliminary Appraisal." NMody, Ashoka, and Kamil Yilmaz. 2002. "Imported Machinery for Wl orld Bank Research Observer 18(1): 113-28. Export Competitiveness." 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Newman, John, Nlenno Pradhan, Laura B. Rawlings, Geert Acharya, Gayatri, and Edward Barbier. 2002. "Using Domestic Ridder. Ramiro Coa, and Jose Luis Evia. 2002. "An Impact Water Analysis to Value Groundwater Recharge in the Hadejia- Evaluation of Education, Health, and Water Supply Investments Jama'are Floodplain, Northern Nigeria." American Journal of bv the Bolivian Social Investmcnt Fund." Wl orld Bank Agricultural Economits 84(2): 415-26. Economii Re-iew 16(2 ): 241-74. Adams, Richard H., Jr. 2002. "Nonfarm Income, Inequality, and lPaxson. Christina, and Norbcrt R. Schady. 2(002. "I'he Allocation Land in Rural Egypt." EconomicDezvelopmentand Cultural Change and Impact of Social Funds: Spending on School Infrastructure 50((2): 339-63. in Peru." 1orld Bank Economic Review 16(2): 297-319. Adekola, 0. A. 2002. "A Generalized Life Expectancy Model for Pistor, Katharina, Yoram Keinan, Jan Kleinhcistcrkamp, and NMark a Population." Journal of the Operational Research Society 53(8): D. 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"Divers' Willingness to Pay to "Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Visit Mlarine Sanctuaries: An Exploratory Studv." Ocean and Foreign Debt Use in East Asia." Journal of Finance 58(6): (Coastal.llanagement45(2-3): 171-83. 2667-709. Asilian, A., 1 Jayaler, NM. Nilforooshzadeh, R. L. Ghassemi, R. Peto, Al-Sabbry, MI. NM., D. Harris, and R. Fox. 2002. "An Fconomic S. Wayling, P. Olliaro, and ENlodabbcr. 2003. "Treatment of Cuta- Assessment of Ground Water Recharge in the Tucson Basin." neous Leishmaniasis with Aminosidine (Paromomycin) Ointment: JournaloftheAmerinan WVaterResourcesAssociation 38(1): 119-31. Double-Blind, Randomized 'I'rial in the Islamic Republic of Anderson, James H., and Roger R. Betancourt. 2002. "The Iran." Bulletin of the lVorld Health Otganization 81(5): 353-59. Distribution Sector and the Development Process: Are T'here Astrakhan, I., and A. Chepurcnko. 2003. "Small Business in Rus- Patterns? Yes." 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Journal of. lonet'. Cretit, and Banking 33(2): 548-89. B3ashir. Sajitha. 2(0)02. "llpgrading the Educational Attainment . 21)112. "What to Stabilize in the Open Economr." and Skill Level of the Karinataka Workforce: (Challenges International Economnic Review 43(4): 1289-3307. and Options." Indiian Jonr-nal of labioulr Economics 45(4): Benitez, Daniel A., Antonio Estache, 1). Mark Kennet, and Chris- 1223-34. tian A. Ruzzier. 2002. "'I'hc Potcntial Role of Econoniic (Cost Basio, kaushjik, Ambar Naravan. and Martin Ra\allion. 2001. "Is NModels in the Regulation of Telecommunications in D)evcloping Litcracy Sharcd wNithin Households? 'I'hcory and Evidence C(ountrics." Information Emonomnis and Pokier 14(1): 21-38. for Bangladesh." lb.aonr Econoiniks 8(6): 649-65. Bennett, A. B., T. J. C. Andcrson, G. C. Barker, E. M\iclhael, and Batsoin A. 2(0)02. "'1hc Crosts antI Economics of NModcrn Vaccine D. A. P. Bundy. 20)0)2. "Scquence 'Variation in the 'I'richuris I)eveloppment." 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"A Simulated American Economic Review 92(4): 1029-43. Annealing Genetic Algorithm for the Electrical Power Dis- Blondel, J., and N. Nanning. 2002. "D)o Nlinisters D)o What They tricting Problem." Annals of Operations Research 121(1-4): Say? Ministerial UTnreliability, Collegial. and Hierarchical 33-55. Governments." PoliticalS tudies 50(3): 455-76. Bergquist, N. R. 2001. "Vector-Borne Parasitic Diseases: New Bloom, Shelah S., David Wypij, and Monica l)as Gupta. 2()()1. Trends in Data Collection and Risk Assessment." Acta Tropica "Dimensions of Women's Autonomy and the Influence on 79(1): 13-20. Maternal Health Care lltilization in a North Indian City." Bergquist, R., M. Al-Sherbiny, R. Barakat, and R. Olds. 2002. Demographv 38(1): 67-78. "Blueprint for Schistosomiasis Vaccine Development." Acta Bongini, Paola, Luc Laeven, and Giovanni Majnoni. 2002. "How Tropica 82(2): 183-92. Good Is the Nlarket at Assessing Bank Fragility? A Horse Race Berkelaar, Arjan, and Roy Kouwenberg. 2003. "Retirement between Different Indicators." Journa/o BankingandFinan,c Saving with Contribution Payments and Labor Income as a 26(5): 1011-28. Benchmark for Investments." Journal of Economic Dynamics Bourguignon. Franyois. and Christian NMorrison. 20(02. "Inequal- and Control 27(6): 1069-97. ity among World Citizens: 1820-1992." A.mirican Economic Berkelaar, Arjan, Phornchanok Cumperayot, and Roy Kouwenberg. Review 92(4): 727-44. 2002. "The Effect of VaR-Based Risk Management on Asset Bourguignon. Francois, Miartin Fournier, and Mlarc Gurgand. 2(0(01. Prices and the Volatility Smile." European Financial M4anagement "Fast Development with a Stable Income Distribution: 'Iaiwan, 8(2): 139-64. 1979-94." Review of Income and lealth 47(2): 139-63. Besant-Jones, John E., and Bernard Tenenbaum. 2001. "Lessons Braga, B., and J. Granit. 2003. "Workshop 4 (Synthesis): Critcria from California's Power Crisis." Finance andDevelopment38(3): for Priorities between Competing Water Interests in a (atch- 24-28. ment." W1ater Science and 7Dchnology 47(6): 149-51. Bhargava, A., and B. Bigombe. 2003. "Public Policies and the Brandt, L., J. K. Huang, G. Li, and S. Rozelle. 2002. "Land Rights Orphans of AIDS in Africa." British MedicalJournal326(7403): in Rural China: Facts, Fictions, and Issues." China.lournl,u 1387-89. 47(January): 67-97. Biggs, Tyler, Nlayank Raturi, and Pradeep Srivastava. 2002. Broadman, Harry G. 2001. "'I'he Business(es) of the Chinese "Ethnic Networks and Access to Credit: Evidence from the State." WlorldEconomy 24(7): 849-75. Manufacturing Sector in Kenya." Journal of EconomicBehavior .2001. "Competition and Busincss Entrx in Russia." Finan(f and Organization 49(4): 473-86. and Dev/elopment 38(2): 22-25. Bisogno, Marcelo, and Alberto Chong. 2002. "On the Determinants Broadman, Harry G., and Francesca Recanatini. 2002. "Corruption of Inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina." 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"Financial Crises: Cadot, Olivier, Jaime de Melo, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2002. Fundamentals, Beliefs, and Financial Contagion." European "Harmonizing External Quotas in an FTA: A Step Backward?" Economic Review, 46(4-5): 801-08. Economics and Politics 14(3): 259-82. Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion. 2001. "How Did the World's - . 2003. "The Protectionist Bias of Duty Drawbacks: Poorest Fare in the 1990s?" Review of Income and Wealth 47(3): Evidence from Mercosur." Journal of International Economics 283-300. 59(1): 161-82. Chiuri, Maria Concetta, Giovanni Ferri, and Giovanni Majnoni. Calder6n, Cesar Augusto, Alberto Chong, and Norman Loayza. 2002. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Capital Require- 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing ments in Emerging Economies: Past Evidence to Assess the Countries." Contributions to Macroeconomics 2(1). Future." Journal of Banking and Finance 26(5): 881-904. Camargo, Jose Marcio, and Francisco H. G. Ferreira. 2002. "Miss- Chomitz, Kenneth M. 2002. "Baseline, Leakage, and Measurement ing the Target: Assessing Social Expenditures in Brazil." Browfn Issues: How Do Forestry and Energy Projects Compare?" Journal of lVorld Affairs 8(2): 97-111. Climate Policy 2(1): 35-49. Bank ResearEh Output 151 Chomitz, Kenneth M., and Timothy S. Thomas. 2003. "Deter- "Gender Issues in the Community-Directed 'treatment with minants of Land Use in Amaz6nia: A Fine-Scale Spatial Analy- Ivermectin (CDTI) of the African Programme for Onchoccr- sis." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85(4): 1016-28. ciasis Control (APOC)." Annals of Tropiral 1ledicine and Para- Claessens, Stijn, and Simeon Djankov. 2002. "Privatization sitology 96(1): 59-74. Benefits in Eastern Europe." Journal of Public Economics 83(3): Collier, Paul. 2002. -The Future of Perennial Crops." Alfrican 307-24. Development Review/Revue Africaine de DAeeloppement 14(2): Claessens, Stijn, Simeon Djankov, and Leora Klapper. 2003. 237-50. "Resolution of Corporate Distress in East Asia." Journal of Collier, Paul, and David Dollar. 2001. "Can the World Cut lPoverty EmpiricalFinance 10(1-2): 199-216. in Half? How Policy Reform and Effective Aid Can Meet Claessens, Stijn, Thomas Glaessner, and Daniela Klingebiel. 2002. International Development Goals." lWorldDevelopment 29(11): "Electronic Finance: Reshaping the Financial Landscape around 1787-802. the World." Journal of Financial Services Research 22(1-2): 29-61. . 2002. "Aid Allocation and Poverty Reduction." European Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2002. Economic Ret'ieu' 46(8): 1475-500. "The Future of Stock Exchanges in Emerging Economies: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. 2002. "On the Incidence of Civil Evolution and Prospects." Brookings-Wharton Papers on Finan- War in Africa." Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(1): 13-28. ial Services, pp. 167-202. Collier, Paul, and Nicholas Sambanis. 2002. 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"Woomen's Perceptions of Iron Deficiency and Anemia Grootaert, Christiaan, Gi-'Iaik Oh, and Anand Swanin. 2(0(02. "Social Prevention and Control in Eight l)evcloping Countries." Social Capital, Househlold WVelfare, and Poverty in Burkina Faso5." .on/- Science and ,1ledicine 55(4): 529-44. nalof .ljican .ononoies 11 (1: 4-38. Gao, J., J. C. Qian, S. L. 'Iang, B. Eriksson, and E. Blas. 2002. Gross, B. A., and 11. Burger. 2(0(02. "Breastfeeding Patterns and "Health Equity in '[ransition from Planned to Nlarket Return to Fertility in Australian NVomen." ;lustmalian aned.lVcw Economy in China." Heailth Polic and l'anning 17(1): 20-29. Zealand,Journal of Obste-trics and Gy,naecolog 42(2): 148-54. Gauri, Varun, and Peyvand Khaleghian. 211(12. "Immunization in Gulyani, Sumila. 2()()1. "Effects of Poor 'Iransportation on Lean Developing Countries: Its Political and Organizational Production and Industrial (lusterilig: Evidence from the Indian l)eterminants." llorld Deuelopment130(12): 2109-32. 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Bangladesh: Financial Accountability for Good Assessing the World Bank Water Resources Strategy. Operations Governance. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, . 2002. Cali, Colombia: Toward a City Development Strategy. Operations Evaluation Department. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Preker, Alexander S., and April L. Harding, eds. 2003. Innovations . 2002. Chile's High Growth Economy: Povertv and Income in Health Service Delivery: The Corporatization of Public Hospitals. Distribution 1987-1998. World Bank Country Study. Washing- Health, Nutrition, and Population Series. Washington, D.C.: ton, D.C. World Bank. . 2002. Economic Growth in the Republic of Yemen: Sources, Pswarayi-Riddihough, Idah. 2002. Forestry in the Middle East and Constraints, and Potentials. World Bank Country Study. Wash- North Africa: An Implementation Review. World Bank Technical ington, D.C. Paper 521. Washington, D.C. . 2002. Education and Training in Madagascar: Toward a Pyne, Hnin Hnin, Mariam Claeson, and Maria Correia. 2002. PolicyAgendaforEconomic Growth andPoverty Reduction. World Gender Dimensions of Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Problems in Latin America and the Caribbean. World Bank . 2002. Growth Challenges andGovernment Policies in Armenia. Discussion Paper 433. Washington, D.C. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Raven, John. 2002. Trade and Transport Facilitation: A ToolkitforAudit, . 2002. Higher Education in Brazil: Challenges and Options. Analysis, and Remedial Action. World Bank Discussion Paper World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. 427. Washington, D.C. - . 2002. Kyrgyz Republic: Fiscal Sustainability Study. World Revenga, Ana, Dena Ringold, and William Martin Tracy. 2002. Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Poverty and Ethnicity: A Cross-Country Study of Roma Poverty in - . 2002. Poverty and Nutrition in Bolivia. World Bank Central Europe. World Bank Technical Paper 531. Washington, Country Study. Washington, D.C. D.C. . 2002. Regaining Fiscal Sustainability and Enhancing Rokx, Claudia, Rae Galloway, and Lynne Brown. 2001. Prospectsfor Effectiveness in Croatia: A Public Expenditure and Institutional Improving Nutrition in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Health, Review. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Nutrition, and Population Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. . 2002. The Right to Tell: The Role of Mass Mledia in Economic Salman, Salman M. A., and Kishor Uprety. 2003. Conflict and Development. World Bank Institute Development Studies Series. Cooperation on South Asias International Rivers: A Legal Washington, D.C. Perspective. Law, Justice, and Development Series. Washington, . 2002. Slovak Republic: Living Standards, Employment, and D.C.: World Bank. Labor Market Study. World Bank Country Study. Washington, Schneider, Robert R., Adalberto Verissimo, Eugenio Arima, D.C. Carlos Souza Jr., and Paulo Barreto. 2002. Sustainable Amazon: .2002. Tanzania at the Turn of the Century:BackgroundPapers Limitationsand OpportunitiesforRuralDevelopment. World Bank and Statistics. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Technical Paper 515. Washington, D.C. . 2003. Agriculture in Nicaragua: Promoting Competitiveness and Silva-Jauregui, Carlos, Michelle Riboud, and Carolina Sanchez- Stimulating Broad-Based Growth. World Bank Country Study. Paramo. 2002. Does Eurosclerosis Matter? Institutional Reform Washington, D.C. and Labor Market Performance in Central and Eastern Europe. . 2003. Bulgaria: Public Expenditure Issues and Directions for World Bank Technical Paper 519. Washington, D.C. Reform. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Starkey, Paul, Simon Ellis, John Hine, and Anna Ternell. 2002. .2003. FinancialAccountability in Nepal:A Country Assessment. Improving Rural Mobility: Options for Developing Motorized and World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Nonmotorized Transport in Rural Areas. World Bank Technical . 2003. Non-Bank Financial Institutions and Capital Markets Paper 525. Washington, D.C. in Turkey. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Wellenius, Bjorn. 2002. Closing the Gap in Access to Rural Communi- . 2003. Restoring Fiscal Discipline for Poverty Reduction in cation: Chile 1995-2002. World Bank Discussion Paper 430. Peru: A Public Expenditure Review. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. 170 Bank Researth Output 2003. Teltiar, Education in Colombia: Paving the 1ay to 2003. "'I'he Mini-Integrated Macroeconomic MIodel for Reformti. \Vorld Bank Country Sttidy. NWashington, D.C. Poverty Analysis: A Framework for Analyzing the 1 Inemplov- Zanini (j;ianni. '" K1' I . Russia TsIransition: An Unpreredented ment and Poverty Effects of Fiscal and Labor Mlarket Rcforms." O Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, Policy Research Working Paper 3067. NWorld Bank, \World Bank D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. Institute, Washington, D.C. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, and Joshua Aizenman. 2002. Financial F. Policy Research Working Papers Sector Inefficiencies and the Debt Laffer Curve." Policy Research Working Paper 2842. World Bank. World Bank Abadzi, Hclen. 2003. "Teaching Adults to Read Bctter and Faster: Institute, Washington, D.C. ResUlts from an Experiment in Burkina Faso." Policy Research Ainsworth, Martha, and Julia Dayton. 2001. "'I'he Impact of thc Working Paper 3(057. World Bank, Operations Evaluation AIDS Epidemic on the Health of the Elderly in 'lanzania." D)epartment, Washington, I).C. Policy Research Working Paper 2649. World Bank, D)evelop- Adams, Richard 11., Jr. 2002. "IPrecautionary Saving fronm Different ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Sources of Income: Evidence from Rural Pakistan." Policy Ainsworth, Nlartha, and Deon Filmer. 2002. "Poverty, AI)S, and Research Working Paper 2761. World Bank, Poverty Reduction Children's Schooling: A 'Fargeting Dilemma." Policy Rescarch and Economic Management Network, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 2885. World Bank, Development Research 2003. "Economnic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: Group and Human Development Network. Washington. Iindings from a New Data Set." Policy Research Working D.C. Paper 2972. NWorld Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Ajwad, Nlohamed Ihsan, and Pradeep Kurukulasuriva. 2002. Mlanagcment Network, WVashington, D.C. "Ethnic and Gender Wage Disparities in Sri Lanka." Policy 2003. "International Migration, Remittances, and the Research Working Paper 2859. WVorld Bank, Povcrty Reduction 13rain Drain: A Study of 24 1,abor-Exporting Countries." and Economic NManagement Network, Washington, [).C. Policy Research Working Paper 3069. WVorld Bank, Poverty Akiyama, Takamasa, John Baffes, Donald E Larson. and lPanos Reduiction and Economic NManagement Network, Washing- Varangis. 2003. "Commodity Mlarket Reform in Africa: Somc ton, D.C. Recent Experience." Policy Research WVorking Paper 2995. Addison, D)ouglas Xl. 2003. "Productivity Growth and Product World Bank, Development Research Group, Waslhington, Variety: Gains from Imitation and Education." Policy Research D.C. Workinig Paper 3023. NWorld Bank, Africa 'lechnical Families, Alam, Asad, and NMark Sundberg. 2002. "A Decade of Fiscal Poycrty Reduction and Economic MNanagement 3, Washington, 'I'ransition." Policy Research NVorking Paper 2835. WVorld B3ank, D1).C Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Agcnor, Pierre-Richard. 2001. "Bcnefits and Costs of International Economic NManagement Sector Unit, WVashington, D.C. Financial Integration: 'T'heory and Facts." IPolicy Research Alatas, Vivi, and Lisa Cameron. 2003. "'Fhe Impact of Nlinimum Working Paper 2699. World Bank, \World Bank Institute, NVash- Wages on Employment in a Low-Incomc Country: .An Evalu- ington, ).C. ation UIsing the Difference-in-Differences Approach." Policy 2001. 'BBusiness Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor: Research Working Paper 2985. WN'orld B3ank, East Asia and 'Testing for Asy mmetric Effects." Policy Research Working Pacific Region, Environment and Social D)evelopment Sector P7apcr 2700. World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. I Init, Washington, D.C. - 2002. "D)oes Globalization Hurt the Poor?" Policy Research Alatas, Vivi, Lant Pritchett, and Anna WVetterberg. 2003. "Voice Working Paper 2922. World Bank, World Bank Institute, NVash- Lessons: Local Government Organizations, Social Organizations, ington, D).C. and the Quality of Local Governance." Policy Rescarch W\orking 2002. "MN1acroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Paper 2981. World Bank, East Asia and P'acific Region, En\i- Issues and Cross-Country Evidence." IPolicy Research Work- ronment and Social Development Sector [nit, \Washington, 1).(C. ing Paper 2788. World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washing- Albuquerque, Rui, Norman Loayza. and Luis Serven. 2003. "World ton. D).(. Nlarket Integration through the Lens of Foreign Direct Bank Research Output 171 Investors." Policy Research Working laper 3060. World Bank, tion and Economic \lanagement Sector I nit, WVashington. Developmcnt Research Group, Washington, D.C. D).C. Alva, Soumya, Edmundo Niurrugarra, and Pierella Paci. 2002. Azam, jean-Paul, Nlagucye Dia, and '-chLtche N'(;iessan. 2002. "-'he Hidden Costs of Ethnic Conflict: Decomposing 'rends "Telecommunications Sector Refornss in Senegal." Policv in Educational Outcomes of Young Kosovars." Policy Research Research WVorking Paper 2894. WN'orld Bank, Dscvlopment WN'orking Paper 2880. WVorld Bank, Europe and Central Asia Research Group, Washington, D.C. Region, Human Development Sector Ufnit, Washington, Badiane, Ousiiane, DhancshN ar Ghura, Louis Goreux, and Paul D.C. Nlasson. 2(002. "COttOn Sector Strategics in \Nest and ( cntral Anderson, Jock R., and Gershon Feder. 2003. "Rural Extension Africa." Policy Research Working E'apcr 2867. WVorld B3ank, Services." Policy Research WVorking Plaper 2976. WNorld Bank, Africa 'lechnical Families, RuraLl I)evelopment 2, Washing- Agriculture and Rural D)evelopment Department and ton, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bales. Sarah, and Martin Rama. 2()()1. "Are Pubhli Sector WVorkers Anderson, Kym, jikun Huang, and Elena lanchovichina. 2003. Underpaid? Appropriate (.omparators in a Dcveloping "Long-Run Impacts of China's WT() Accession on Farm- Country." Policy Research Working Paper 2747. World Bank. Nonfarm Income Inequality and Rural Poverty." Policy Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 3052. World Bank, Poverty RedLuction Barr, Abigail, and 'Iruman Ilackard. 2(1()2. "Revealed Prefcrenec and Economic Management Network, Washington, D).C. and Self-Insurance: Can We Learn ftroi the SeIf-limploved in Arias, Omar. 2001. "Are Nlen Benefiting from the New Economy? (Chile?" Policy Research N'orkiig Paper 2754. World 13altk, MIale Economic Mlarginalization in Argentina, Brazil, and Costa Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Social lProtection I rnit. Rica." P'olicy Research WVorking Plaper 274(0. World Bank, Latin WNashington. 1).C. America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector tInit, Wash- Barth, James R., Gerard ( Caprio Jr., and Ross Levine. 2(0)1. "Bank ington, I).C. Regulation and Supervisioni: \What Works Best?" Policy Rescarch Artemiev, Igor, and Michael Haney. 20102. "'I'he Privatization of the Working Paper 2725. World Bank. Development Research Russian Coal Industry: Policies and Processes in the Transfor- Group and Financial Sector Strategy and Policy I)epartment. mation of a Major Industry." Policy Research WVorking Paper \Washington, D.C. 2820. WN"orld Bank, Priv ate Sector Advisory Services Department: Basu, Kaushik, and Ranjan Ray. 2(0(02. "'Ilhe (Collective .Model of and Europe and Clentral Asia Region, Infrastructure and Energy the Household and an tUnexpectcd Irmplication for Child Labor: Department, Washington, D.C. Hypothesis and an Empirical Test." I'olics Research Working Auffret, Philippe. 2(101. "An Alternative UJnifying Mteasure of Paper 2813. World Bank, Development Economics, Office of \Welfare Gains from Risk-Sharing." Policy Research NVorking the Senior \'ice President and (hief Economist. Washington, IPaper 2676. NVorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean D.(C. Region, Economic Policy Sector ( nit, \W"ashington, D.C. Baulch, Bob, T'ruongT'hi Kim Chuyen, Doominique Hauglhton, and 2()03. "Catastrophe Insurance Mlarket in the Caribbean Jonathan Haughton. 200)2. "Ethnic Mlinoritv Development in Region: Miarket Failires and Recommendations for Public Vietnam: A Sociocconomilic Perspective." Policy Research \Work- Sector Interventions." Policy Research Wkorking Paper 2963. ing Paper 2836. \World Bank. Dcv elopment Research Group, WVorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Washington, D.C. Economic Policy Sector I nit, Washington, D.C. Beck, 'I'horsten. 2(0(03. "I'he Incentivc-Compatible Design of .2003. "High Consumption Volatility: '[he Impact of Nat- Deposit Insuirance and B3ank Failure Resolution: Concepts oral Disasters?" Plolicy Research WVorking Paper 2962. WN'orld and Country Studies." IPolicy Research \Working Paper 30)43. Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Economic WNorld Bank, D)evelopment Research Group. Washington, D.C. lPolicv Sector tTnit, WVashington, D.C. Beck. 'I'horsten, and Ash l)emirg0ig-KUnt. 2(0(3. "'Bank Super\ i- 2(0(03. "'rrade Reform in Vietnam: Opportunities with sion and (Corporate Finance." Policy Research Working Paper Emerging C'hallenges." Policy Research \Vorking Paper 3(042. World Blank. 1)evelopment Rcsearch Group. Washingtol. 3(076. World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduc- D.C( 172 Bank Research Output Beck, Thorsten, and Ross Levine. 2001. "Stock NMarkets, Banks, Bento, Antonio M., Nlaureen L. Cropper, Ahmed Nlushfiq Nlobarak, and Growth: Correlation or Causality?" Policy Research Work- and Katja Vinha. 2003. "The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure ing Paper 2670. World Bank, Development Research Group, on Travel Demand in the United States." Policy Research Washington, D.C. Working Paper 3007. World Bank, Development Research Beck, Thorsten, and Ian Webb. 2002. "Determinants of Life Group, Washington, D.C. Insurance Consumption across Countries." Policy Research Berger, Allen N., Leora E Klapper, and Gregory E IJdell. 2001. Working Paper 2792. World Bank, Development Research "The Ability of Banks to Lend to Informationally Opaque Group. WVashington, I).C. Small Businesses." Policy Research Working Paper 2656. World Beck, Thorsten, Asti DemirgQ$-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2002. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. "Law and Finance: WVhy Does Legal Origin Nlatter?" IPolicv Binswanger. Hans P, and Swaminathan S. Aiyar. 2003. "Scaling Up Research WVorking Paper 2904. World Bank, Development Community-Driven Development: Theoretical UTnderpinnings Research Group, Washington, D.C. and Program Design Implications." Policy Research Working 2003. "Bank Concentration and Crises." Policy Research Paper 3039. World Bank, Africa Regional Office. Office of the Working Paper 3041. World Bank, Development Research Vice President, Washington, D.C. Group, NVashington, D.C. Blom, Andreas, Lauritz Holm-Nielsen. and Dorte Verner. 2001. Beck, Thorsten, Ashl Demirgi,c-Kunt, and Vojislav NIaksimovic. "Education. Earnings, and Inequality in Brazil, 1982-98: 2002. "Financial and Legal Constraints to Firm Growth: Does Implications for Education Policy." Policy Research Working Size NMatter?" Policy Rcsearch NVorking Paper 2784. World Paper 2686. World Bank. Latin America and the Caribbean Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Region, Education Sector lJnit, Washington, D.C. .2002. "Financing Patterns around the Vorld: 'I'he Role of Bosquet, Benoit. 2002. "The Role of Natural Resources in Institutions." Policy Research Working Paper 2905. World Fundamental Tax Reform in the Russian Federation." Policy Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 2807. World Bank, Europe and 2003. "Bank Competition, Financing Obstacles, and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Access to Credit." Policy Research Working Paper 2996. World NManagement Sector U(nit, Washington, D.C. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D).C. Bosquet, Franck, and Alain Fayard. 2001. "Road Infrastructure Con- - 2003. "Financial and Legal Institutions and Firm Size." cession Practice in Europe." Policy Research Working Paper Policy Research WVorking Paper 2997. World Bank, Develop- 2675. World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, I).C. Bourguignon, Fran,ois, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Phillippe G. Beck, Thorsten, Nlattias Lundberg, and Giovanni M\lajnoni. 2001. Leite. 2002. "Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differ- "Financial Intermediary D)evelopment and Growth Volatility: ences in Household Income Distributions across Countries." Do Intermediaries Dampen or Magnify Shocks?" Policy Policy Research Working Paper 2828. World Bank, Research Research WVorking Paper 2707. World Bank, I)evelopment Advisory Staff, Washington, D.C. Research Group, Washington, D.C. . 2002. "Ex-Ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Beckerman, Paul. 2001. "Dollarization and Semi-Dollarization in Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola." Policy Research Work- Ecuador." Policy Research Working Paper 2643. World Bank, ing Paper 2916. World Bank, Development Research Group, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Economic Policy Washington, D.C. Sector Unit, Washington. D.C. Boyreau-Debray, Genevieve. 2003. "Financial Intermediation and Beegle, Kathleen. 2003. "Labor Effects of Adult NMortality in Tan- Growth: Chinese Style." Policy Research Working Paper 3027. zanian Households." Policy Research Working Paper 3062. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Developmcnt Research Group, Washington, D.C. Brenton, Paul. 2003. "Integrating the Least Developed Countries Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev H. Dehejia, and Roberta Gatti. 2003. into the World Trading System: The Current Impact of EU "Child Labor, Income Shocks, and Access to Credit." Policy Preferences under Everything but Arms." Policy Research Research Working Paper 3075. World Bank, Development Working Paper 3018. World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Economic NManagement Network, Washington, D.C. Bank Research Outpul 173 Broadman, Harry G., and Francesca Recanatini. 2001. "Is Russia Chakravorty, Sanjoy, Jun Koo, and Somik V. Lall. 2003. Restructuring? New Evidence on Job Creation and Destruc- "Nletropolitan Industrial Clusters: Patterns and Processes." tion." Policy Research Working Paper 2641. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 3073. WVorld Bank, Develop- Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Economic Mlanagement Sector tfnit, Washington, D.C. Chaudhury, Nazmul, and Jeffrey Hammer. 2003. "Ghost Doctors: - . 2001. "Where Has All the Foreign Investment Gone in Absenteeism in Bangladeshi Health Facilities." Policy Research Russia?" Policy Research Working Paper 2640. World Bank, Working Paper 3065. World Bank, Devclopment Research Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Group, Washington, D.C. Economic Nlanagement Sector U1nit, Washington, D.C. Chaudhury, Nazmul, Jeffrev Hammer, and Edmundo Murrugarra. Buckley, Robert, Gulmira Karaguishiyeva, Robert Van Order, and 2003. "'I'he Effects of a Fee-Waiver Program on Health Care Laura Vecvagare. 2003. "Comparing Nlortgage Credit Risk LUtilization among the Poor: Evidence from Armenia." Policy Policies: An Options-Based Approach." Policy Research Work- Research Working Paper 2952. World Bank, Development ing Paper 3047. World Bank, Transport and t Irban Development Research Group; and Europe and Central Asia Region, Human Department, Washington, D.C. Development Sector l Init, Washington, D.C. Butzer, Rita, Yair Nlundlak, and Donald F. Larson. 2003. Chen. Derek Hlung Chiat. 20(03. "Intertemporal Excess Burdcn, "Intersectoral Nligration in Southeast Asia: Evidence from Bequest Mlotives, and the Budget Deficit." Policy Research Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines." Policy Research Working Paper 3086. World Bank, World Bank Institute, Wash- Working Paper 2949. World Bank, Development Research ington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Chen, Shaohua, and Nlartin Ravallion. 2003. "Hidden Impact? Calder6n, Cesar, Norman Loayza, and Luis Serven. 2003. "Do Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program." Policy Capital Flows Respond to Risk and Return?" Policy Research Research Working Paper 3049. World Bank, Development Working Paper 3059. World Bank, Development Research Research Group, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. . 2003. "Household WVelfare Impacts of China's Accession Cameron, Lisa A. 2002. "Did Social Safety Net Scholarships to the World Trade Organization." Policy Research Working Reduce Drop-Out Rates during the Indonesian Economic lPaper 3040. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Crisis?" Policy Research Working Paper 2800. World Bank, ington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Then, Shaohua, and Yan Wang. 2001. "China's Growth and Poverty . 2002. "The Impact of the Indonesian Financial Crisis on Reduction: 'Irends between 1990 and 1999." Policy Research Children: Data from 100 Villages Survey." Policy Research Working Paper 2651. World Bank, Development Research Working Paper 2799. World Bank, Development Research Group and World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Chomitz, Kenneth NI., and Timothy S. I'homas. 20(01. Campos-N46ndez, Javier, Antonio Estache, and Lourdes 'Irujillo. "Geographic Patterns of Land U'se and Land Intensity in 2001. "Processes, Information, and Accounting Gaps in the the Brazilian Amazon." Policy Research Working Paper 2687. Regulation of Argentina's Private Railways." Policy Research World Bank. Development Research Group, Washington, Working Paper 2636. World Bank, WA'orld Bank Institute, Wash- D.C. ington, D.C. (Thong, Alberto, and Florencio L6pez-de-Silanes. 20(02. Caprio, Gerard, Jr., and Patrick Honohan. 2002. "Banking Policy "Privatization and Labor Force Restructuring around the and Niacroeconomic Stability: An Exploration." Policy Research NWorld." Policv Research Working Paper 2884. World Bank, Working Paper 2856. World Bank, Development Research Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Christiaensen. Luc, Lionel Demery, and Stefano Paternostro. Case, Anne, and Angus Deaton. 2003. "Consumption, Health, 20(02. "Growth. Distribution, and Poverty in Africa: NMessages Gender, and Poverty." Policy Research Working Paper 3020. from the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper 2810. World World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Nianagement Bank, Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction and Network, Washington, D.C. Econonmic Mlanagement 3, Washington, D.C. 174 Bank Research Output Claessens, Stijn, and Leora F Klapper. 2002. "Bankruptcy around Clarke, George R. G., Frew A. Gebreab, and Henrv R. Nlgombelo. the World: Explanations of Its Relative Use." Policy Research 2003. "Telecommunications Reform in NIalawi." Policy Working Paper 2865. World Bank, Development Research Research Working Paper 3036. World Bank, Development Group, Washington, D.C. Research Group, Washington, D.C. Claessens, Stijn, and Luc Laeven. 2002. "Financial Development, Clarke, George R. G., Lixin Colin Xu, and Heng-fu Zou. 2003. Property Rights, and Growth." Policy Research Working Paper "Finance and Income Inequality: Test of Alternative 'Fheories." 2924. World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Depart- Policy Research Working Paper 2984. World Bank, Develop- ment, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2002. Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, "Explaining the Nligration of Stocks from Exchanges in Emerg- and Susana M. Sanchez. 2001. "Foreign Bank Entrv: Experi- ing Economies to International Centers." Policy Research ence, Implications for Developing Countries, and Agenda for Working Paper 2816. World Bank, Development Research Further Research." Policy Research Working Paper 2698. World Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice - . 2003. "Government Bonds in Domestic and Foreign President and Chief Economist, Washington, I).C. Currency: The Role of Macroeconomic and Institutional - . 2002. "Bank Lending to Small Businesses in Latin Amer- Factors." Policy Research Working Paper 2986. World Bank, ica: Does Bank Origin NMatter?" Policy Research Working Paper Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. 2760. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Clark, Ximena, David Dollar, and Alejandro NMicco. 2002. D.C. "Maritime Transport Costs and Port Efficiency." Policy Research Collier, Paul, and Jan Dehn. 2001. "Aid, Shocks, and Growth." jWorking Paper 2781. World Bank, Development Research Policy Research Working Paper 2688. World Bank, Group, Washington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Clarke, George R. G. 2001. "Bridging the Digital Divide: How Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. 2002. "Aid, Policy, and Growth Enterprise Ownership and Foreign Competition Affect in Post-Conflict Societies." Policy Research Working Paper Internet Access in Eastern Europe and Central Asia." Policy 2902. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Research Working Paper 2629. World Bank, Development D.C. Research Group, Washington, D.C. - . 2002. "Military Expenditure: Threats, Aid, and Arms Clarke, George R. G., and Robert Cull. 2001. "Bank Privatization Races." Policy Research Working Paper 2927. World Bank, in Argentina: A Model of Political Constraints and Differential Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Outcomes." Policy Research Working Paper 2633. World Bank, Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Nfans Soderbom. 2001. "On the Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Duration of Civil War." Policy Research Working Paper 2681. Clarke, George R. G., and Scott J. Wallsten. 2002. "Universal(ly World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bad) Service: Providing Infrastructure Services to Rural and Poor Cowan, Kevin, and Quy-Toan Do. 2003. "Financial Dollarization Urban Consumers." Policy Research Working Paper 2868. and Central Bank Credibility." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, 3082. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. D.C. Clarke, George R. G., and Lixin Colin Xu. 2002. "Ownership, Cox, Donald. 2002. "Private Interhousehold 'Iransfers in Vietnam Competition, and Corruption: Bribe Takers versus Bribe Pay- in the Early and Late 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper ers." Policy Research Working Paper 2783. World Bank, Devel- 2853. World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. D.C. Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, and Maria Soledad Martinez Cuevas, Mario A. 2002. "Demand for Imports in Venezuela: A Peria. 2001. "Does Foreign Bank Penetration Reduce Access Structural Time Series Approach." Policy Research Working to Credit in Developing Countries? Evidence from Asking Paper 2825. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Borrowers." Policy Research Working Paper 2716. World Bank, Region, Colombia, Nlexico, and Venezuela Country Manage- Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ment lUnit, Washington, D.C. Bank Research Output 175 - 2002. "Money Demand in Venezuela: Nlultiple Cycle nical Families, Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- Extraction in a Cointegration Framework." Policy Research ment, Washington. D.C. Working Paper 2844. World Bank, Latin America and the Das Gupta, Monica, Jiang Zhenghua, Li Bohua, Xie Zhenming, Caribbean Region, Colombia, NMexico, and Venezuela Coun- Woojin Chung, and Bae Hwa-Ok. 2002. "Why Is Son Prefer- try Management UJnit, Washington, D.C. ence So Persistent in East and South Asia? A Cross-Country - 2002. "Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela: A Structural Study of China, India, and the Republic of Korea." Policy Time Series Approach." Policy Research Working Paper 2826. Research Working Paper 2942. World Bank, Development World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Research Group, Washington, D.C. Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management U nit, Dasgupta, Susmita, [Iwe Deichmann, Craig NMeisner, and David Washington, D.C. Wheeler. 2003. "The Poverty-Environment Nexus in Cambodia Cull, Robert, Lemma W. Senbet, and Marco Sorge. 2001. "Deposit and Lao People's Democratic Republic." Policy Research Insurance and Financial Development." Policy Research Work- Working Paper 2960. World Bank, Development Research ing Paper 2682. World Bank, Development Research Group, Group, WVashington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Datt, Gaurav, and Martin Ravallion. 2002. "Is India's Economic Cunningham, Wendy V. 2001. "Breadwinner or Caregiver? How Growth Leaving the Poor Behind?" Policv Research Working Household Role Affects Labor Choices in Mexico." Policy Paper 2846. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Research Working Paper 2743. World Bank, Latin America and ington, D.C. the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector U nit, Washington, D.C. de Castro, Alexandre Samy, Ian Goldin, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva. 2001. "Sectoral Allocation by Gender of Latin American 2002. "Relative Returns to Policy Reform: Evidence from Con- Workers over the Liberalization Period of the 1990s." Policy trolled Cross-Country Regressions." Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 2742. World Bank, Latin America and Paper 2898. World Bank, Development Economics, Office of the the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector U nit, Washington, D.C. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Currie, Elizabeth, Jean-Jacques Dethier, and Eriko 'Togo. 2003. Dehejia, Rajeev H., and Roberta Gatti. 2002. "Child Labor: The "Institutional Arrangements for Public Debt Management." Role of Income Variability and Access to Credit in a Cross- Policy Research Working Paper 3021. World Bank, Development Section of Countries." Policy Research Working Paper 2767. Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Econ- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. omist; and Public Debt Management Group, Washington, D.C. Deichmann, [Twe, and Somik V. Lall. 2003. "Are You Satisfied? Dado, Marinela E., and Daniela Klingebiel. 2002. "Decentralized Citizen Feedback and Delivery of Urban Services." Policy Creditor-Led Corporate Restructuring: Cross-Country Research Working Paper 3070. World Bank, Development Experience." Policy Research Working Paper 2901. World Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department, Deichmann, TIwe, Marianne Fay, Jun Koo, and Somik V. Lall. Washington, D.C. 2002. "Economic Structure, Productivity, and Infrastructure Dailami, Mansoor, and Robert Hauswald. 2001. "Contract Risks Quality in Southern Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper and Credit Spread Determinants in the International Project 2900. World Bank, Development Research Group; and Latin Bond Market." Policy Research Working Paper 2712. World America and the Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Infrastructure UTnit, Washington, D.C. Das, Jishnu, and Carolina Sanchez-Paramo. 2003. "Short but Not Deichmann, Uwe, Somik V. Lall, Ajay Suri, and Pragya Rajoria. Sweet: New Evidence on Short-Duration NMorbidities from 2003. "Information-Based Instruments for Improved Urban India." Policy Research Working Paper 2971. World Bank, Management." Policy Research Working Paper 3002. World Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Das Gupta, Monica, Helene Grandvoinnet, and NMattia Romani. Deininger, Klaus. 20(03. "Causes and Consequences of Civil Strife: 2003. "Fostering Community-Driven Development: What Micro-Level Evidence from Uganda." Policy Research Work- Role for the State?" Policy Research Working Paper 2969. ing l'aper 3045. World Bank, Development Research Group, World Bank, Development Research Group; and Africa 'I'ech- D,,,., r .n, D.C. 176 Bank Research Output Deininger, Klaus, and Juan Sebastian Chamorro. 2002. "Investment Demirgtif-Kunt, AslI, and Edward J. Kane. 2001. "Deposit Insur- and Income Effects of Land Regularization: The Case of ance around the Globe: Where Does It Work?" Policy Research Nicaragua." Policy Research Working Paper 2752. World Bank, Working Paper 2679. World Bank, Development Research Development Research Group, NVashington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Deininger, Klaus, and Songqing Jin. 2002. "The Impact of Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Vojislav Maksimovic. 2001. "Firms as Property Rights on Households' Investment, Risk Coping, Financial Intermediaries: Evidence from Trade Credit Data." and Policy Preferences: Evidence from China." Plolicy Research Policy Research Working Paper 2696. World Bank, Develop- Working Paper 2931. World Bank. Development Research ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Group. Washington, D.C. Demombynes, Gabriel, and Berk Ozler. 2002. "Crime and Local - 2002. "Land Rental Markets as an Alternative to InequalityinSouthAfrica." PolicyResearch WorkingPaper2925. Government Reallocation? Equity and Efficiency Considera- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. tions in the Chinese Land Tenure System." Policy Research Desmond, Christopher, and Robert Greener. 2003. "The Working Paper 2930. World Bank, Development Research Strategic Bse and Potential Demand for an HIV Vaccine in Group, NVashington, D.C. Southern Africa." Policy Research Working Paper 2977. World - 2003. "Land Sales and Rental Markets in Iransition: Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Evidence from Rural Vietnam." Policy Research Working Ilaper Dessus, Sebastien. 2001. "Human Capital and Growth: The Recov- 3013. World Bank, Development Research Group, NVashington, ered Role of Education Systems." Policy Research Working D.C. Paper 2632. World Bank, Middle East and North Africa Region, Deininger, Klaus, Song(lingJin, Berhanu Adenew, Samuel Gehke- Social and Economic Development Group and Social Devel- Selassie, and Mulat Demeke. 2003. "Market and Nonmarket opment Group, Washington, D.C. Transfers of Land in Ethiopia: Implications for Efficiency, Devarajan, Shantayanan, Margaret J. Miller, and Eric V. Swanson. Equity, and Nonfarm Development." Policy Research Work- 2002. "Goals for Development: History, Prospects, and Costs." ing Paper 2992. World Bank, Development Research Group, Policy Research Working Paper 2819. World Bank, Human Washington, D.C. Development Network and Development Data Group, Wash- Deininger, Klaus, Song(ling Jin. Berhanu Adenew, Samuel Gebre- ington, D.C. Selassie, and Bcrhanu Nega. 2003. "Tenure Security and Land- Dinh, Hinh T, Abebe Adugna, and Bernard Myers. 2002. "The Related Investment: Evidence from Ethiopia." Policy Research Impact of Cash Budgets on Poverty Reduction in Zambia: Working Paper 2991. World Bank, Development Research A Case Study of the Conflict between Well-Intentioned Group, Washington, D.C. Macroeconomic Policy and Service Delivery to the Poor." de la Rocha, Manuel. 2003. "'Fhe Cotonou Agreement and Its Policy Research Working Paper 2914. World Bank, Africa Implications for the Regional 'Irade Agenda in Eastern and Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Southern Africa." Policy Research Working Paper 3090. World Division 1, Washington, D.C. Bank, Africa Region. Regional Integration and Cooperation Djankov, Simeon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio L6pez-de-Silanes, and Unit, Washington, D.C. Andrei Shleifer. 2001. "The Regulation of Entry." Policy de la Torre, Augusto, Eduardo Levy Yevati. and Sergio L. Research Working Paper 2661. World Bank, Financial Sector Schmukler. 2002. "Financial Globalization: U nequal Bless- Strategy and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. ings." Policy Research Working Paper 2903. World Bank, Latin Djankov, Simeon, Edward Glaeser, Rafael La Porta, Florencio America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Econ- L6pez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer. 2003. "The New omist; and Development Research Group, Washington, Comparative Economics." Policy Research Working Paper D.C. 3054. World Bank, Private Sector Advisory Services Department, 2003. "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Washington, D.C. Fall of Argentina's Currency Board." Policy Research Working Dollar. David. 2002. "Reform, Growth, and Poverty in Vietnam." Paper 2980. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Policy Research Working Paper 2837. World Bank, Develop- ington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank Research Output 177 Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay. 2003. "Institutions, Trade, and Research Working Paper 2693. World Bank, Development Growth: Revisiting the Evidence." Policy Research Working Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Paper 3004. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Economist, Washington, D.C. ington, D.C. . 2001. "Introduction to Property Theory: The Funda- Doma,, Ilker, Kyle Peters, and Yevgeny Yuzefovich. 2001. "Does mental Theorems." Policy Research Working Paper 2692. the Exchange Rate Regime Affect Macroeconomic Perfor- World Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice mance? Evidence from Transition Economies." Policy Research President and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 2642. World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Ellerman, David, and Vladimir Kreacic. 2002. "Transforming the Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Old into a Foundation for the New: Lessons of the Moldova Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. ARIA Project." Policy Research Working Paper 2866. World Donnelly-Roark, Paula, Karim Ouedraogo, and Xiao Ye. 2001. Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice "Can Local Institutions Reduce Poverty? Rural Decentraliza- President and Chief Economist; and Europe and Central Asia tion in Burkina Faso." Policy Research Working Paper 2677. Region, Private and Financial Sectors Development tJnit, World Bank, Africa Region, Environment and Social Devel- Washington, D.C. opment Unit, Washington, D.C. Emran, M. Shahe, and Misuzu Otsuka. 2003. "Gender, Genera- Ebel, Robert D., and Serdar Yilmaz. 2002. "On the Nleasurement tions, and Nonfarm Participation." Policy Research Working and Impact of Fiscal Decentralization." Policy Research Paper 3087. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Working Paper 2809. World Bank, World Bank Institute, ington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Emran, M. Shahe, and Forhad Shilpi. 2002. "Marketing Exter- Edmonds, Eric, and Carrie Turk. 2002. "Child Labor in Transition nalities and Market Development." Policy Research Working in Vietnam." Policy Research Working Paper 2774. World Bank, Paper 2839. World Bank, Development Research Group, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Eid, Florence. 2001. "Applying the Decision Rights Approach to Epifani, Paolo. 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Firm Performance, and a Case of Hospital Institutional Design." Policy Research Labor Mlarket Outcomes in the Developing World: What Can Working Paper 2726. World Bank. Operations Evaluation We Learn from Micro-Level Data?" Policy Research Working Department, Washington, D.C. Paper 3063. World Bank, Development Research Group, - 2001. "Hospital Governance and Incentive Design: The Washington, D.C. Case of Corporatized Public Hospitals in Lebanon." Policy Eskeland, Gunnar S., and Deon Filmer. 2002. "Autonomy, Research Working Paper 2727. World Bank, Operations Participation, and Learning in Argentine Schools: Findings Evaluation Department, Washington, D.C. and Their Implications for Decentralization." Policy Research Eifert, Benn, Alan Gelb, and Nils Borje Tallroth. 2002. "The Polit- Working Paper 2766. World Bank, Development Research ical Economy of Fiscal Policy and Economic NManagement in Group, Washington, D.C. Oil-Exporting Countries." Policy Research Working Paper Essama-Nssah, B. 2002. "Assessing the Distributional Impact of 2899. World Bank, Africa Regional Office, Office of the Chief Public Policy." Policy Research Working Paper 2883. World Economist, Washington, D.C. Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Elbers, Chris, Jean 0. Lanjouw, and Peter Lanjouw. 2002. "Micro-Level Washington, D.C. Estimation of Welfare." Policy Research Working Paper 2911. Estache, Antonio, and Eugene Kouassi. 2002. "Sector Organiza- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. tion, Governance, and the Inefficiency of African Water El-Laithy, Heba, NMichael Lokshin, and Arup Banerji. 2003. Utilities." Policy Research Working Paper 2890. World Bank, "Poverty and Economic Growth in Egypt, 1995-2000." Policy World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 3068. World Bank, Development Estache, Antonio, and Lucia Quesada. 2001. "Concession Contract Research Group, Washington, D.C. Renegotiations: Some Efficiency versus Equity Dilemmas." Ellerman, David. 2001. "Helping People Help Themselves: Policy Research Working Paper 2705. World Bank, World Bank 'Toward a 'I'heory of Autonomy-Compatible Help." Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. 178 Bonk Research Output Estache, Antonio, NMarianela Gonzalez, and Lourdes 'Irujillo. 2001. Fajnzylber, Pablo, William F. Nlaloney, and Eduardo Ribeiro. 2001. "Technical Efficiency Gains from Port Reform: 'Fhe Potential "Firm Entry and Exit, Labor Demand, and 'ITrade Reform: for Yardstick Competition in Nlexico." Policy Research Evidence from Chile and Colombia." Policy Research Work- Working Paper 2637. WVorld Bank, World Bank Institute, ing Paper 2659. NWorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Washington, D.C. Region. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Estache, Antonio, Marco Nlanacorda. and 'I'ommaso NI. Valletti. Sector I nit, WVashington, D.C. 2002. "Telecommunication Reforms, Access Regulation, and Fallon, Peter. Vivian Hon, Zia Qureshi, and Dilip Ratha. 2001. Internet Adoption in Latin America." Tlolicy Research "Nliddle-Income Countries: Development Challenges and Working Paper 2802. World Bank, World Bank Institute, Growing Global Role." Policy Research Working Paper 2657. Washington, D).C. \Vorld Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic NManagement Estache, Antonio. MIartin A. Rossi, and Christian A. Ruzzier. 2002. Network and Development Prospects Group, Washington, "The Case for International Coordination of Electricitv l).C. Regulation: Evidence from the Nleasurement of Efficiency in Feder, Gershon, Rinku Nlurgai, and Jaime B. Quizon. 2003. "Send- South America." Policy Research Working Paper 2907. World ing Farmers Back to School: The Impact of Farmer Field Bank, WVorld Bank lnstitute: and Latin America and the Schools in Indonesia." Policy Research Working Paper 3022. Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. I Tnit, Washington, D.C. Fernandes, Ana NI. 2003. "Trade Policy, Trade Volumes, and Plant- Estache, Antonio, Nlartin Rodriguez Pardina, Jose Maria Rodriguez, Level Productivity in Colombian Nlanufacturing Industries." and (German Sember. 2003. "An Introduction to Financial and Policy Research Working Paper 3064. World Bank, Develop- Economic Nlodeling for I ftility Regulators." Policy Research ment Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Working lPaper 30(01. W\orld Bank, World Bank InstitLte and Fernando, Deepthi, Leora Klapper, Viktor Sulla, and Dimitri P'rivate Sector l)evelopment and Infrastructure Vice Presi- Vittas. 2(003. "'I'he Global Growth of Nlutual Funds." Policy dency, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 3055. World Bank, Development Evenett, Simon J., NMargaret C. Lcvenstein, and Valerie V. Suslow. Research Group, Washington, D.C. 2001. "International Cartel Enforcement: Lessons from the Ferreira, Francisco H. G., and Phillippe G. Leite. 2003. "Policy 1990s." Policy Research Working Papcr 2680. World Bank, Options for NMeeting the Nlillennium Development Goals in Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C. Brazil: Can Nlicro-Simulations Help?" Policy Research Fafchamps. NMarcel, and Eleni Gabre-Madhin. 2(1(1. "Agricultural Working Paper 2975. World Bank, Development Research NMarkets in Benin and Nlalawi: The Operation and Perfor- Group, Washington, D.C. mance of Traders." lolicv Rescarch Vorking Paper 2734. World Fiess, Norbert NM. 2003. "Capital Flows, Country Risk, and Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D).C. Contagion." Policy Research Working Paper 2943. WVorld Bank, Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi. 2602. "'I'he Spatial Divi- Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief sion of Labor in Nepal." Policy Research Working Plaper 2845. Economist. Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, W ashington, Fiess, Norbert NI., NMarco Fugazza, and William F Maloney. 2002. D.C. "Exchange Rate Appreciations, Labor Nlarket Rigidities, and Fafchamps, Mlarcel, Said El Hamine, and Albert Zeufack. 20(02. Informality" Policy Research NVorking Paper 2771. World Bank, "Learning to Export: Evidence from M loroccan Nlanufacturing." Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Policy Research Working Paper 2827. World Bank, Develop- Economist, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, NWashington, D.C. Filmer, IDeon. 20(02. "Fever and Its Treatment among the Nlore Fajnzylber, Pablo, and William F NMaloney 2(001. "How Compa- and Less l'oor in Sub-Saharan Africa." Policy Research rable Are Labor Demand Elasticities across Countries?" Working Paper 2798. World Bank, Development Research Policy Research Working Plaper 2658. World Bank, Latin Amer- Group, Washington, D.C. ica and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Finger, J. Nlichacl, and Julio J. Nogues. 2001. "The U nbalanced Nlanagement Sector Ulnit, WN7ashington, [).C. Uruguay Round Outcome: The New Areas in Future WTO Bank Research Output 179 Negotiations." Policy Research Working Paper 2732. World Gallardo, Joselito. 2002. "A Framework for Regulating Microfinance Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Institutions: The Experience in Ghana and the Philippines." Finger, J. Michael, Francis Ng, and Sonam Wangehuk. 2001. Policy Research Working Paper 2755. World Bank, Financial "Antidumping as Safeguard Policy." Policy Research Working Sector Development Department, Washington, D.C. Paper 2730. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Gallup, John Luke. 2002. "'I'hc Wage Labor Market and Inequal- ington, D.C. ity in Vietnam in the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper Fink, Carsten, Aaditya Mattoo, and Ileana Cristina Neagu. 2002. 2896. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, "Assessing the Impact of Communication Costs on International D.C. Trade." Policy Research Working Paper 2929. World Bank, Ganslandt, Nlattias, and Keith E. NMaskus. 2001. "Parallel Imports Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. of Pharmaceutical Products in the European Union." Policy Fink, Carsten, Aaditya Nlattoo, and Randeep Rathindran. 2001. Research Working Paper 2630. World Bank, Development "Liberalizing Basic Telecommunications: The Asian Experi- Research Group, Washington. D.C. ence." Policy Research Working Paper 2718. World Bank, Gauri, Varun. 2003. "Social Rights and Economics: Claims to Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Health Care and Education in Developing Countries." Policy .2002. "An Assessment of Telecommunications Reform in Research Working P'aper 3006. World Bank, Development Developing Countries." Policy Research Working Paper 2909. Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Gauri, Varun, and Peyvand Khaleghian. 2002. "Immunization in Fischer, Ronald, and Alexander Galetovic. 2001. "Regulatory Developing Countries: Its Political and Organizational Deter- Governance and Chile's 1988-99 Electricity Shortage." Policy minants." Policy Research Working Paper 2769. World Bank, Research Working Paper 2704. World Bank. World Bank Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Institute, Washington, D.C. Gauri, Varun, and Ayesha Vawda. 2003. "Vouchers for Basic Fisman, Raymond, and Inessa Love. 2001. "Trade Credit, Finan- Education in Developing Countries: A Principal-Agent cial Intermediary Development, and Industry Growth." Policy Perspective." Policy Research Working Paper 3005. World Research Working Paper 2695. World Bank, Development Bank, Development Research Group and Human Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Network, Washington, D.C. - 2002. "Patterns of Industrial Development Revisited: Gauthier, Bernard, and Ritva Reinikka. 2001. "Shifting Tax The Role of Finance." Policy Research Working Paper 2877. Burdens through Exemptions and Evasion: An Empirical World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Investigation of lTganda." Policy Research Working Paper D.C. 2735. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Fofack, Hippolyte. 2002. "The Nature and Dynamics of Poverty D.C. Determinants in Burkina Faso in the 1990s." Policy Research Gebreab, Frew Amare. 2002. "Getting Connected: Competition Working Paper 2847. World Bank, Africa Technical Families, and Diffusion in African Mobile Telecommunications Macroeconomics 3, Washington, D.C. NMarkets." Policy Research Working Paper 2863. World Bank, Fremond, Olivier, and Nlierta Capaul. 2002. "The State of Corporate Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Governance: Experience from Country Assessments." Policy Gine, Xavier, and Robert M\. Townsend. 2003. "Evaluation of Research Working Paper 2858. World Bank, Private Sector Financial Liberalization: A General Equilibrium Model with Advisory Services Department, Washington, D.C. Constrained Occupation Choice." Policy Research Working Freund, Caroline. 2003. "Reciprocity in Free Trade Agreements." Paper 3014. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Policy Research Working Paper 3061. World Bank, Develop- ington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Glaessner, Thomas, 'Iom Kellermann, and Valerie McNevin. 2002. Galasso, Emanuela, NMartin Ravallion, and Agustin Salvia. 2001. "Electronic Security: Risk Mitigation in Financial Transactions "Assisting the Transition from Workfare to Work: A Random- -Public Policy Issues." Policy Research Working Paper 2870. ized Experiment." Policy Research Working Paper 2738. World World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department, Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. 180 Bank Research Output Glewwe, Paul, and Phong Nguyen. 2002. "Economic Niobility in Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure tJnit, Vietnam in the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper 2838. NVashington, D.C. World Bank, Development Rescarch Group, WVashington, [).C. Guasch, J. Luis, Jean-Jacques Laffont, and St6phane Straub. 2003. Glewwe, Paul. Stefanie Koch, and Bui Linh Nguyen. 2002. "Child "Renegotiation of Concession Contracts in Latin America." Nutrition, Economic Growth, and the Provision of Health Care Policy Research Working Paper 3011. World Bank, Latin Services in Vietnam in the 1990s." Policy Research WVorking America and the Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Paper 2776. World Bank, Development Research Group, Infrastricture U1nit, NVashington, D.C. Washington, D.C. C,,,.r .\\iilIr Emily, and Hnin Hnin Pyne. 2002. "Gender Gonzalez, Christian Y., David Rosenblatt. and Steven B. Webb. Dimensions of (Child Labor and Street Children in Brazil." 20(02. "Stabilizing Intergovernmental Transfers in Latin Policy Research Working Paper 2897. World Bank, Latin America: A Complement to National/Suhnational Fiscal Rules?" America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector UTnit, Policy Research NVorking Paper 2869. World Bank, I)evelop- Washington, ).C. ment Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Haggartv, Luke, Penelope Brook, and Ana NMaria Zuluaga. 2001. Economist; and l.atin America and the Carihhean Region, "Thirst for Reform? Private Sector Participation in Providing Nlexico, Colombia, and Venezuela Country Department, M\exico City's Vater Sipply." Policy Research Working Paper Washington. D.C. 2654. World Bank. Development Research Group, Washington, Gradstein, NIark, and Branko Nlilanovic. 20(12. "Does L.ibelrtt f).C. Ega/itf?A Survey of the Empirical Links hetween Democracv Haggarty, Luke, Mlary NI. Shirley, and Scott Wallsten. 2003. and Inequality Xwith Some Evidence on the 'Transition "'Telecommunication Reform in Ghana." Policy Research Economies." Policy Research Working Paper 2875. World Bank, WVorking Paper 2983. World Bank, Development Research Development Research Group, WN:ashington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Gragnolati, Nlichele. and Alessandra Nlarini. 20(03. "HIealth and Hallward-Driemeier, Mlary, Scott Wallsten, and Lixin Colin Xu. Povertv in Guatemala." P'olicy Research Working Paper 2966. 2003. "'I'he Investment Climate and the Firm: Firm-Level World Bank, Latin America and the Caribhean Region, Human Evidence from China." Policy Research Working Paper 3003. Development Sector Itnit, Washington, D.C. W\orld Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Grais, WVafik, and Zeynep Kanrur. 20(03. "'I'he Changing Financial Haney, Mlichael, and Mlaria Shkaratan. 2003. "Mline Closure and Landscape: Opportunities and Ci, ii. ,for the Mliddle East Its Impact on the Community: Five Years after Mine Closure and North Africa." Policy Research Working Paper 30.50. NVorld in Romania, Russia, and UJkraine." Policy Research Working Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department, Paper 3083. World Bank, Eturope and (Central Asia Region, Washington, D.C. Infrastructure and Energy Services Department, Washington, Grigorian, David A., and Vlad Nlanole. 2002. ")eterminants of D.C. Commercial Bank Performancc in 'Iransition: An Application Harms, Philipp, Aaditya Mlarton, and Ludger Schuknecht. 2003. of Data Envelopment Analysis." Policy Research Working 'Explaining Liberalization Commitments in Financial Paper 2850. World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Services 'Irade." Policy Research Working Paper 2999. World Private and Financial Sectors Development Unit, WVashing- Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ton, D.C. Harrison, Ann E., Inessa Love, and Mlargaret S. MeMlillan. 2002. Grootaert, Christiaan, and Deepa Naravan. 2001. "Local Institu- "Global Capital Flows and Financing (Constraints." Policy tions, Poverty, and Flotusehold Welfare in Bolivia." Policy Research Working Paper 2782. World Bank, Development Research Working Paper 2644. World B3ank, Social Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Department and Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- Harrison. Glenn W, Thomas E Rutherford, and David G. 'Iarr. 2001. ment Network, Washington. D.( . "Chile's Regional Arrangements and the Free t'rade Agreement Guasch, J. Luis, and Joseph Kogan. 2(0)03. "Just-in-Case Invento- of the Americas: I'he Importance of Nlarket Access." Policy ries: A Cross-Country Analysis." P'olicy Research \Working Research Working Paper 2643. World Bank, Development Paper 3012. XWorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank Research Output 181 Harrison, Glenn W., 'I'homas F. Rutherford, David G. Tarr, and munist Societies." Policy Research Working Paper 2934. World Angelo Gurgel. 2003. "Regional, NMultilateral, and Ulnilateral Bank, Development Research Group. \\ , D, ).C. 'Irade lPolicies of Niercosur for Growth and Povertv Reduction Honohan. Patrick. 2003. "Avoiding the Pitfalls in 'laxing Finan- in Brazil." Policy Research Working Paper 3051. World Bank, cial Intermediation." IPolicy Research Working Paper 3056. D)evclopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. I lerrera. Santiago, and Guillermo Perry. 2001. "'rropical Bubbles: Asset Honohan, Patrick, and Anqing Shi. 2001. "Deposit Dollarization lPrices in Latin America, 1980-2001." Policy Research Working and the Financial Sector in Emerging Economics." Policy Paper 2724. WN'orld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Research Working Paper 2748. World Bank, Development Region. Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Research Group, Washington, D.C. Iliiimmelherg, Charles P, R. Glenn Hubbard, and Inessa Love. 2002. Hood, Ron, David Husband, and Fei Yll. 20(02. "Recurrent Expen- "Investor Protection, Ownership, and the Cost of Capital." diture Requirements of Capital Projects: E.stimation for l'olicy Research Working Paper 2834. World Bank, I)evelop- Budget Purposes." Policy Research Working Paper 2938. World ment Research Group. WVashington, D.C. Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction I loekman. Bernard. 2002. "Economic Development and the World and Economic Mlanagement Sector tUnit, Washington, D.C. Irade Organization after Doha." Policy Research Working lanchovichina, Elena, and Will Nartin. 20(3. "Economic Impacts Paper 2851. NWorld Bank, Development Research Group, of China's Accession to the World 'rade Organization." P'olicy Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 3053. World Bank, Poverty Reduction 20(02. "Strengthening the Global 'Frade Architecture for and Economic NManagement Nctwork and Development Development." I'olicv Research Working Paper 2757. World Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. lanchovichina, Elena, Alessandro Nicita, and Isidro Soloaga. 2(0(1. I lockman, Bernard, and Petros C. Nlavroidis. 2002. "Economic "'1'rade Reform and Household Welfare: T'he Case of Mexico." D)evelopment. Competition Policy, and the World Trade Policy Research Working Paper 2667. World Bank, Develop- Organization." IPolicy Research Working Paper 2917. World ment Research Group, Washington, D).C. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Ilahi, Nadeem. 2001. "Children's Work and Schooling: Does h lockman, Bernard. and Patrick Messerlin. 2002. "Initial Condi- Gender Mfatter? Evidence from the Peru LSNIS Panel Data." tions and Incentives for Arab Economic Integration: Can the Policy Research Working Paper 2745. W orld Bank, Latin E.uropean Community's Success Be Emulated?" Policy America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector tUTnit, Research Working Paper 2921. World Bank, Development Washington, D.C. Research Group, Washington, D.C. .2001. "Gender and the Allocation of Adult 'l'ime: Evidenec I loekman, Bernard. Hiau Looi Kee, and Mareelo Olarreaga. 2001. from the Perti LSNMS Panel I)ata." Policy Research Working "Markups, Entry Regulation, and 'I'rade: Does Country Size Paper 2744. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Nlatter?" IPolicy Research Working Paper 2662. World Bank, Region, Gender Sector tUTnit, Washington, D.C. I)evelopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Impavido, Gregorio. 2002. "On the Governance of Public Pension l lockman, Bernard, Francis Ng, and Nlarcelo Olarreaga. 2002. Fund Management." Policy Research Working Plaper 2878. "Reducing Agricultural'lariffs versus Domestic Support: What's World Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policv l)epart- Mlore Important for Developing Countries?" Policy Research ment, NNashington, D.C. Workinig Paper 2918. World Bank, Development Research Impavido, Gregorio, Alberto R. Musalem, and Thierrv 'l'ressel. 2001. Group, Washington, D.C. "Contractual Savings Institutions and Banks' Stability and I loekman,1 ernard, Constantine Michalopoulos, Maurice Schiff, Efficiency." Policy Research Working Paper 2751. World Bank, and David 'larr. 2(101. "'trade Policy Reform and Poverty Financial Sector Development Department, \Washington, D.C. Alleviation." Policy Research NVorking Paper 2733. World Bank, .2003. "'The Impact of Contractual Savings Institutions on Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Securities NMarkets." Policy Research Working Paper 2948. IHotf, Karla R., and Joseph E. Stiglitz. 2002. "After the Big Bang? World Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policy Depart- Obstacles to the Emergence of the Rule of Law in Postcom- ment, Washington, D.C. 182 Bank Reseatch Output Impavido, Gregorio, Alberto R. Musalem, and Dimitri Vittas. 2002. Working Paper 2646. World Bank, Development Research "Contractual Savings in Countries with a Small Financial Group, Washington, D.C. Sector." Policy Research Working Paper 2841. World Bank, . 2003. "Never Too Late to Get Together Again: Turning Financial Sector Development Department, Washington, D.C. the Czech and Slovak Customs Union into a Stepping Stone Islam, Roumeen. 2003. "Do More Transparent Governments to EU Integration." Policy Research Working Paper 2954. Govern Better?" Policy Research Working Paper 3077. World World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Kaminsky, Graciela, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2001. "Emerging Islam, Roumeen, and Claudio E. Montenegro. 2002. "What Markets Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk Determines the Quality of Institutions?" Policy Research and Stock Returns?" Policy Research Working Paper 2678. Working Paper 2764. World Bank, Development Economics, World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, . 2001. "Short- and Long-Run Integration: Do Capital Washington, D.C. Controls Matter?" Policy Research Working Paper 2660. World Izquierdo, Alejandro, Jacques Morisset, and Marcelo Olarreaga. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. 2003. "Information Diffusion in International Markets." . 2002. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Policy Research Working Paper 3032. World Bank, Develop- Financial Liberalization." Policy Research Working Paper 2912. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Jack, William. 2001. "Public Policy toward Nongovernmental Kathuria, Sanjay, Will Martin, and Anjali Bhardwaj. 2001. Organizations in Developing Countries." Policy Research "Implications for South Asian Countries of Abolishing the Working Paper 2639. World Bank, Development Research Multifibre Arrangement." Policy Research Working Paper Group, Washington, D.C. 2721. World Bank, Development Research Group and South Jalan, Jyotsna, and Martin Ravallion. 2001. "Does Piped Water Asia Region, Washington, D.C. Reduce Diarrhea for Children in Rural India?" Policy Research Kaufmann, Daniel, and Aart Kraay. 2002. "Growth Without Working Paper 2664. World Bank, Development Research Governance." Policy Research Working Paper 2928. World Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, World Bank Institute and Development Research Group, - 2001. "Household Income Dynamics in Rural China." Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 2706. World Bank, Develop- Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay, and Pablo Zoido-Lobat6n. 2002. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. "Governance Matters II: Updated Indicators for 2000-01." Pol- James, Estelle, Alejandra Cox Edwards, and Rebeca Wong. 2003. icy Research Working Paper 2772. World Bank, Development "The Gender Impact of Pension Reform: A Cross-Country Research Group and World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Analysis." Policy Research Working Paper 3074. World Bank, Kawai, Masahiro, and Shinji Takagi. 2001. "Japan's Official Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Development Assistance: Recent Issues and Future Direc- Washington, D.C. tions." Policy Research Working Paper 2722. World Bank, East Jensen, Jesper, and David Tarr. 2002. "Trade, Foreign Exchange, Asia and Pacific Region, Office of the Chief Economist, and Energy Policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Reform Washington, D.C. Agenda, Economic Implications, and Impact on the Poor." Kee, Hiau Looi. 2001. "Productivity versus Endowments: A Study Policy Research Working Paper 2768. World Bank, Develop- of Singapore's Sectoral Growth, 1974-92." Policy Research ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 2702. World Bank, Development Research Jordan, Cally, and Giovanni Majnoni. 2002. "Financial Regulatory Group, Washington, D.C. Harmonization and the Globalization of Finance." Policy . 2002. "Markups, Returns to Scale, and Productivity: A Case Research Working Paper 2919. World Bank, Financial Sector Study of Singapore's Manufacturing Sector." Policy Research Operations and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 2857. World Bank, Development Research Kaminski, Bartlomiej, and Beata K. Smarzynska. 2001. "Foreign Group, Washington, D.C. Direct Investment and Integration into Global Production and . 2002. "Productivity or Endowments? Sectoral Evidence Distribution Networks: The Case of Poland." Policy Research for Hong Kong's Aggregate Growth." Policy Research Work- Bank Research Output 183 ing Paper 2892. World Bank, Development Research Group, Klein, Michael. 2003. "Ways Out of Poverty: Diffusing Best Washington, D.C. Practices and Creating Capabilities-Perspectives on Policies Kee, Hiau Looi, and Bernard Hoekman. 2003. "Imports, Entry, and for Poverty Reduction." Policy Research Working Paper 2990. Competition Law as Market Disciplines." Policy Research World Bank, Private Sector Advisory Services Department, Working Paper 3031. World Bank, Development Research Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Kondo, Masanori. 2001. "The Political Economy of Commodity Keefer, Philip, and Stephen Knack. 2002. "Boondoggles and Expro- Export Policy: A Case Study of India." Policy Research priation: Rent-Seeking and Policy Distortion When Property Rights Working Paper 2750. World Bank, South Asia Region, Rural Are Insecure." Policy Research WorkingPaper 2910. World Bank, Development Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Koolwal, Gayatri, and Ranjan Ray. 2002. "Estimating the Endoge- -. 2002. "Social Polarization, Political Institutions, and Coun- nously Determined Intrahousehold Balance of Power and Its try Creditworthiness." Policy Research Working Paper 2920. Impact on Expenditure Patterns: Evidence from Nepal." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 2814. World Bank, Develop- Khaleghian, Peyvand. 2003. "Decentralization and Public ment Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Services: The Case of Immunization." Policy Research Economist, Washington, D.C. WVorking Paper 2989. World Bank, Development Research Kopits, Elizabeth, and Maureen Cropper. 2003. "Traffic Fatalities Group, Washington, D.C. and Economic Growth." Policy Research Working Paper 3035. Khandker, Shahidur R. 2003. "Nlicro-Finance and Poverty: World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh." Policy Research Kraay, Aart, Isidro Soloaga, and James Tybout. 2002. "Product Working Paper 2945. World Bank, Development Research Quality, Productive Efficiency, and International Technology Group, Washington, D.C. Diffusion: Evidence from Plant-Level Panel Data." Policy Khandker, Shahidur R., and Rashidur R. Faruqee. 2001. "The Research Working Paper 2759. World Bank, Development Impact of Farm Credit in Pakistan." Policy Research Working Research Group, Washington, D.C. Paper 2653. World Bank, Development Research Group, Laeven, Luc. 2001. "International Evidence on the Value of Washington, D.C. Product and Geographic Diversity." Policy Research Working Khemani, Stuti. 2002. "Federal Politics and Budget Deficits: Paper 2729. World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Evidence from the States of India." Policy Research Working Department, Washington, D.C. Paper 2915. World Bank, Development Research Group, . 2002. "Pricing of Deposit Insurance." Policy Research Washington, D.C. Working Paper 2871. World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and - . 2003. "Partisan Politics and Intergovernmental Transfers Policy Department, Washington, D.C. in India." Policy Research Working Paper 3016. World Bank, Laeven, Luc, and Giovanni Majnoni. 2001. "Loan Loss Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Provisioning and Economic Slowdowns: Too Much, Too Late?" Kikeri, Sunita, and John Nellis. 2002. "Privatization in Competi- Policy Research Working Paper 2749. World Bank, Financial tive Sectors: The Record to Date." Policy Research Working Sector Strategy and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Paper 2860. World Bank, Private Sector Advisory Services Laeven, Luc, Daniela Klingebiel, and Randy Kroszner. 2002. "Finan- Department, Washington, D.C. cial Crises, Financial Dependence, and Industry Growth." Pol- Klapper, Leora F, and Inessa Love. 2002. "Corporate Governance, icy Research Working Paper 2855. World Bank, Financial Sector Investor Protection, and Performance in Emerging Markets." Strategy and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 2818. World Bank, Develop- Laffont, Jean-Jacques, and Tchetche N'Guessan. 2002. "Telecom- ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. munications Reform in C6te d'lvoire." Policy Research Work- Klapper, Leora E, Virginia Sarria-Allende, and Victor Sulla. 2002. ing Paper 2895. World Bank, Development Research Group, "Small- and Medium-Size Enterprise Financing in Eastern Washington, D.C. Europe." Policy Research Working Paper 2933. World Bank, Lall, Somik V., and Sudeshna Ghosh. 2002. "'Learning by Dining': Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Informal Networks and Productivity in Mexican Industry." 184 Bank Research Output Policy Research Working Paper 2789. World Bank, Develop- Lederman, Daniel, Norman Loayza, and Rodrigo Reis Soares. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. 2001. "Accountability and Corruption: Political Institutions Lall, Somik V., Jun Koo, and Sanjoy Chakravorty. 2003. "Diversity Matter." Policy Research Working Paper 2708. WVorld Bank, Matters: The Economic Geography of Industry Location in Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief India." Policy Research Working Paper 3072. World Bank, Economist, Washington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lee, Ho-Chul, and Mary P. MeNulty. 2003. "East Asia's Dynamic Lall, Somik V., Zmarak Shalizi, and Uwe Deichmann. 2001. Development Model and the Republic of Korea's Experi- "Agglomeration Economies and Productivity in Indian ences." Policy Research Working Paper 2987. WVorld Bank, Industry." Policy Research Working Paper 2663. World Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Lall, Somik V, Uwe Deichmann, Mattias K. A. Lundberg, and Lerman, Zvi, Csaba Csaki, and Gershon Feder. 2002. "Land Nazmul Chaudhury. 2002. "Tenure, Diversity, and Commit- Policies and Evolving Farm Structures in Transition ment: Community Participation for Urban Service Provision." Countries." Policy Research Working Paper 2794. NVorld Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 2862. World Bank, Develop- Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Levine, Ross, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2003. "Migration, Lanjouw, Peter, Nlenno Pradhan, Fadia Saadah, Haneen Sayed, Spillovers, and Trade Diversion: The Impact of International- and Robert Sparrow. 2001. "Poverty, Education, and Health in ization on Stock Market Liquidity." Policy Research Working Indonesia." Policy Research Working Paper 2739. World Bank, Paper 3046. World Bank, Development Research Group, Development Research Group; and East Asia and Pacific Washington, D.C. Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sec- Lindelow, Magnus, and Adam Wagstaff. 2003. "Health Facility Sur- tor Unit, Washington, D.C. veys: An Introduction." Policy Research Working Paper 2953. Larson, Donald E, and Frank Plessmann. 2002. "Do Farmers World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Choose to Be Inefficient? Evidence from Bicol, Philippines." Lokshin, Michael, and Branko Jovanovic. 2003. "Wage Differen- Policy Research Working Paper 2787. World Bank, Develop- tials and State-Private Sector Employment Choice in the ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Federal Republic of Yugoslavia." Policy Research NVorking Lecocq, Franck, and Kenneth Chomitz. 2001. "Optimal Use of Paper 2959. World Bank, Development Research Group, Carbon Sequestration in a Global Climate Change Strategy: Washington, D.C. Is There a Wooden Bridge to a Clean Energy Future?" Policy Lokshin, Michael, and Martin Ravallion. 2002. "Rich and Power- Research Working Paper 2635. World Bank, Development ful? Subjective Power and Welfare in Russia." Policy Research Research Group, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 2854. World Bank, Development Research Lecocq, Franck, and Renaud Crassous. 2003. "International Group, Washington, D.C. Climate Regime beyond 2012: Are Quota Allocation Rules L6pez-Acevedo, Gladys. 2001. "An Alternative Technical Educa- Robust to LTncertainty?" Policy Research WorkingPaper3000. tion System in Mexico: A Reassessment of CONALEP." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Policy Research Working Paper 2731. World Bank, Latin D.C. America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Lederman, Daniel. 2002. "Income, Wealth, and Socialization in Economic Management Sector [Jnit, Washington, D.C. Argentina: Provocative Responses from Individuals." Policy - . 2001. "Evolution of Earnings and Rates of Return to Research Working Paper 2821. World Bank, Latin America Education in Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper 2691. and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Economist, World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Washington, D.C. Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit and Lederman, Daniel, and William E Maloney. 2003. "Trade Struc- Mexico, Colombia, and Venezuela Department, Washington, ture and Growth." Policy Research Working Paper 3025. World D.C. Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the - . 2002. "Determinants of Technology Adoption in Nilexico." Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 2780. World Bank, Latin Amer- Bank Research Outpul 115 ica and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Paper 2935. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. - . 2002. "School Attendance and Child Labor in Ecuador." - . 2003. "Informality Revisited." Policy Research Working Policy Research Working Paper 2939. World Bank, Latin Paper 2965. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean America and the Caribbean Region, Economic Policy Sector Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Unit, Washington, D.C. Marini, Alessandra, and Michele Gragnolati. 2003. "Malnutrition -. 2002. "Teachers' Incentives and Professional Development and Poverty in Guatemala." Policy Research Working Paper in Schools in Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper 2777. 2967. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Human Development Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Wash- Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna ington, D.C. Vladkova Hollar. 2002. "Banking on Foreigners: The - . 2002. "Technology and Firm Performance in Mexico." Behavior of International Bank Lending to Latin America, Policy Research Working Paper 2778. World Bank, Latin 1985-2000." Policy Research Working Paper 2893. World Bank, America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Economic Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, and Duanjie Chen. 2001. "The Impact - 2002. "Technology and Skill Demand in Mexico." Policy of NAFTA and Options for Tax Reform in Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper 2779. World Bank, Development Research Working Paper 2669. World Bank, Latin America Research Group, Washington, D.C. and the Caribbean Region, Mexico-Anchor, Washington, D.C. - . 2003. "Wages and Productivity in Mexican Manufactur- Mattoo, Aaditya. 2002. "China's Accession to the World Trade ing." Policy Research Working Paper 2964. World Bank, Latin Organization: The Services Dimension." Policy Research America and the Caribbean Region, Economic Policy Sector Working Paper 2932. World Bank, Development Research Unit, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Love, Inessa. 2001. "Financial Development and Financing Mattoo, Aaditya, and Carsten Fink. 2002. "Regional Agreements Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural and Trade in Services: Policy Issues." Policy Research Investment Model." Policy Research Working Paper 2694. Working Paper 2852. World Bank, Development Research World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Love, Inessa, and Lea Zicchino. 2002. "Financial Development Mattoo, Aaditya, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Kamal Saggi. 2001. "Mode and Dynamic Investment Behavior: Evidence from Panel of Foreign Entry, Technology Transfer, and Foreign Direct Vector Autoregression." Policy Research Working Paper 2913. Investment Policy." Policy Research Working Paper 2737. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Madani, Dorsati H. 2001. "Regional Integration and Industrial Mattoo, Aaditya, Randeep Rathindran, and Arvind Subramanian. Growth among Developing Countries: The Case of Three 2001. "Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its Impact ASEAN Members." Policy Research Working Paper 2697. on Economic Growth: An Illustration." Policy Research World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Working Paper 2655. World Bank, Development Research D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. - 2002. "Politically Optimal Tariffs: An Application to Mattoo, Aaditya, Devesh Roy, and Arvind Subramanian. 2002. "The Egypt." Policy Research Working Paper 2882. World Bank, Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and Its Rules of Origin: Gen- Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. erosity Undermined?" Policy Research Working Paper 2908. Maloney, William F 2001. "Evaluating Emergency Programs." World Bank, Development Research Group. Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 2728. World Bank, Latin McCarthy, E Desmond. 2001. "Social Policy and Macroeconom- America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and ics: The Irish Experience." Policy Research Working Paper 2736. Economic Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. World Bank, External Affairs. Washington, D.C. - . 2002. "Missed Opportunities: Innovation and Resource- McCarthy, F. Desmond, and Holger Wolf. 2001. "Comparative Based Growth in Latin America." Policy Research Working Life Expectancy in Africa." Policy Research Working Papcr 186 Bank Research Output 2668. World Bank, Development Research Group, W ashington, ing Paper 2684. World Bank, Financial Scetor StratcgN aLid D. C. Policy Department, W,ashington, D.C. Nlckenzie, Dav id. 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of the Credit- Mishkin, Frederic S., and Miguel A. Savastano. 2(01. 'lonetar% worthiness of IBRD Borrowers." Policy Research NWorking Policy Strategies for Latin America."' Policy Researchl Vorking Paper 2822. NVorld Bank, Office of the Senior Vice President Paper 2685. World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Polic\ and Chief Financial Officcr, Credit Risk Division, WVashington, Department, Washington, 1).(. D.C. Nlistiaen, Johan A., and Nlartin Ravallion. 2003. "Survey (Comipli- Nleigas, lelo. 2001. "ltsing Development-Oriented Equity Invest- ance and the Distribution of Income." I'olicy Rescarch ment as a '16ol for Restructuring Transition Banking Sectors." Working Paper 2956. World Bank. I)evelopment Researci P'oliev Research Working Paper 2723. World Bank, Europe Group. Washington. D.C. and Central Asia Region, Private and Financial Sectors Devel- Mitra, Pradeep, and Nicholas Stern. 2003. "'lax Systeniis in opment [Unit, W ashington, D.C. Transition." Policy Research WVorking Paper 2947. World B1ank. Niesserlin. Patrick. 20(03. "Agriculture in the Doha Agenda." Europe and Central Asia Region, Office of the Regional Vice Policy Research Working Paper 3009. World Bank, Develop- President; and Development Economics, Office of the Seniior mcnt Research Group, Washington, D.C. Vice President and Chief Economist, Washington. 1).C. Nlcxico Air Quality Nlanagement Team. 2002. "Improving Air Mlorisset, Jacques. 20)03. "I)oes a Country Need a P'romotion Quality in Mletropolitan M,exico City: An Economic Valua- Agency to Attract Foreign l)irect Investment' A Small Analyti(cal tion." Policy Research WVorking paper 2785. World Bank, Latin Model Applied to 58 Countries." policy Researchi Working America and the Caribbean Region, Environmentally and Paper 3028. NVorld Bank, Foreign Investmcnt Adv isory Service, Socially SustainahIc Development Seetor UInit, Washington, Washington, D.C. D.C. Nlorisset, Jacques, and Olivier Lumenga Nesso. 20()2. "Adminis- I\lilanov ic, Uranko. 2002. "Can We Discern the Effect of Global- trative Barriers to Foreign Investment in Developing (Countries. ization on Income D)istribution? Evidence from Hlousehold Policy Research Working Paper 2848. World Bank and Blidget Surveys." Policy Research Working Paper 2876. WVorld International Finance Corporation, Foreign Investment Bank, [)evelopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Advisory Service, WXashington. D.C. 20))3. "Income Convergence during the Disintegration of the Nlundlak, Yair, Donald F Larson. and Rita Bultzer. 20)0)2. "D)eter- World Economn, 1919-39." Policy Research Working Paper 2941. minants of Agricultural Grovth in Iindonesia. the lPhilippines, World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. and Thailand." Policy Research W'orking Paper 281)3. World Mlin. Hong-Ghi. 200)2. "Inequality, the Price of Nontradables, and Bank. Development Research Group, Washington, ).C. the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Cross-Country Evi- Nlurrugarra, Edmundo, and Jose Signoret. 2003. "VulnerabilitN in denee." Policy Research Working Paper 2758. WVorld Bank, Consumption, Education, and Health: Evidence from Nloldo%a Poverty Reduction and Economic Mlanagement Network, during the Russian Crisis." Policy Research \Vorking Papcr NW.ashiington, [).C. 3010. World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Regio,o, I lumran Minor, Nicholais, and Bob Baulch. 2002. "'Fhe Spatial Distribution Development Sector I Init, NVashington, I).C. of Povert in Vietnam and the Potential for Targeting." Policy Nagelkerke, Nico J. D.. and Sake J. de Vlas. 21)1)3. "The| Rescarch Working Paper 2829. World Bank, Development Epidemiological Impact ofan HIV Vaccine on the HIV/Al DS Rescarch Group; and linternational Food Policy Research Epidemic in Southern India." Policy Research Working Papcr Institte. \Vashington. D.C. 2978. WVorld Bank, D)evelopment Research (iroLup, Washington, Nlishkin, Frederic S. 20)01. "Financial Policies and the Prevention D.C. of Financial (Crises in Emerging Mlarket Economies." Policy Ng, Francis, and Alexander Yeats. 20))3. "Export Profiles of Small Rescarch Working lPaper 2683. bNorld Bank, F inancial Sector Landlocked Countries: A Casc Study Focusing on 'Ihcir Impli- Strategy and Plolicy Department, Washington, D.C. cations for Lesotho." Policy Research Working Paper 30(). 20)01. "From M\onerarv 'Iargeting to Inflation Targeting: World Bank, Development Rescarch Group, Washington. Lessons from Industrialized Countries." Policy Research \Work- D.C. Bank Research Output 1 87 - . 2003. N i .. fTrade Trends in East Asia: What Are 'Their . 2002. "Pooling, Savings, and Prevention: Nlitigating the Implications for Regional Cooperation and Growth?" Policy Risk of Old Age Povcrty in Chile." Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 3084. WNorld Bank, Development Paper 2849. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Research Group, WA7ashington, D.C. Region, Human Development Sector tT nit, Washington, D.C. Nguyen, Nga Nguyet. 2002. "Tlrends in the Education Sector Palacios, Nliguel. 2003. "Options for Financing Lifelong Learning." from 1993-98." Policy Research WXorking Paper 2891. World Policy Research Working Paper 2994. World Bank, Human Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. D)evclopment Network, Washington, D.C. Nicita, Alessandro, and NMarcelo Olarreaga. 2001. "'Irade and Pargal, Sheoli. 2003. "Regulation and Private Sector Investment Production, 1976-99." Policy Research Working Paper 2701. in Infrastructure: Evidence from Latin America." Policy World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 3037. WVorld Bank, Corporate Secre- Nicita, Alessandro, and Susan Razzaz. 2(003. "Who Benefits and tariat, Washington, D.C. How Much? How Gender Affects Welfare Impacts of a Boom- Pavcnik, Nina, Andreas Blom, Pinelopi Goldberg, and Norbert R. ing Tlextile Industry." Policy Research Working Paper 3029. Schadv. 2003. "'l'rade Liberalization and Labor Mfarket Adjust- World Bank, Development Research Group and Poverty Reduc- ment in Brazil." Policy Research Working Paper 2982. World tion and Economic Nlanagement Network, Washington, D.C. Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Nicoletti, Giuseppe, and Stefano Scarpetta. 2003. "Regulation, Sector t nit, Washington, D).C. Productivity, and Growth: OECD Evidence." Policy Research Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., B. Essama-Nssah, and Issouf Samak6. Working Paper 2944. World Bank, Human Development 2(002. "A Poverty Analysis Nlacroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Network, Washington, D.C. Linking Household Surveys with Nlacro-Mlodels." Policy Nogues, Julio J. 2003. "t U.S. Contingent Protection against Honey Research Working Paper 2888. World Bank, Development Imports: Development Aspects and the Doha Round." Policy Economics, Officc of the Scnior Vice President and Chief Research Working Paper 3088. World Bank, Development Economnist; and Poverty Reduction and Economic NManagement Research Group, Washington, D.C. Network, Washiington, D.C. Novaes, Hillegonda Nlaria Dutilh, Expedito J. A. Luna, Nlois6s Perry, Guillermo. 2(003. "Can Fiscal Rules Help Reduce Nlacro- Goldbaum, Samuel Kilsztajn, Anaclaudia Rossbach, and Jose economic Volatility in the Latin America and Caribbean de la Rocha Carvalheiro. 2002. "'I'he Potential D)emand for an Region?" Policy Research Working Paper 3080. World Bank, HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Brazil." Policy Research Working Paper Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief 2940. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Economist, Washington, D).C. D.C. IPerry, Guillermo, and Luis Scrven. 2003. "The Anatomy of a Over, Nead, Bernard Bakote'e, Raman Velayudhan, Peter Wilikai, NMultiple Crisis: Why Was Argentina Special and What Can and Patricia NI. Graves. 2003. "Impregnated Nets Cannot Fully We Learn from It?" Policy Research Working Paper 3081. Substitute for DDT' Field Effectiveness of Nlalaria Prevention WVorld Bank. Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office in Solomon Islands." Policy Research Working Plaper 3044. of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Pitt, Nlark NI., Shahiidur R. Khandker, and Jennifer Cartwright. 2003. Ozden, ,aglar, and Eric Reinhardt. 2003. "'Fhe Perversity of "Does Micro-Credit Empower Women? Evidence from Preferences: T'he Generalized System of Preferences and Bangladesh." Policy Research Working Plaper 2998. World Developing Country Trade Policies, 1976-200(." Policy Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 2955. World Bank, I)evelopment Pizzati, Lodovico. 2(0(02. "Labor NMarket Implications of Switching Research Group, Washington, D.C. the Currency Peg in a General Equilibrium NIodel for Lithua- Packard, Truman G. 2001. "Is There a Positive Incentive Effect nia." Policy Research NVorking Paper 2830. World Bank, Europe from Privatizing Social Security? Evidence from Latin and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic America." Policy Research Working Paper 2719. World Bank, Nlanagement Sector l nit, Washington, D.C. Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Human Development P'leskovic, Boris, Anders Ashlnd, NWilliam Bader, and Robert Camp- Sector UInit, NVashington, D).C. bell. 2002. "Capacitv Building in Economics: Education and 188 Bank Research Output Research in Tlransition Economies." Policy Research Working Policy Research W;Vorking Paper 2665. World Bank, Develop- Paper 2763. World Bank. Research Advisory Staff, Washington, ment Research Group, Washington. D.C. D.C. . 2002. "Externalities in Rural Development: Evidence for Powell, Andrew. 2002. "A Capital Accord for Emerging China." Policy Research Working Paper 2879. World Bank, Economies?" Policy Research Working Paper 2808. World Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department, Wash- .2003. "The Debate on Globalization, Poverty, and Inequal- ington, D.C. ity: Why NMeasurement NMatters." Policy Research Working Psacharopoulos, George, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. 2002. Paper 3038. World Bank, Development Research Group, "Returns to Investment in Education: A Further Update." WVashington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 2881. W7\orld Bank, Latin . 2003. "Targeted Transfers in Poor Countries: Revisiting America and the Caribbean Region, Education Sector U nit, the Tradeoffs and Policy Options." Policy Research Working WVashington, D.C. Paper 3048. World Bank, Development Research Group, Rajkumar, Andrew Sunil, and Vinaya Swaroop. 2002. "Public Washington, D.C. Spending and Outcomes: Does Governance NMatter?" Policy Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2001. "Measuring Pro-Poor Research Working Paper 2840. World Bank, Development Growth." Policy Research Working Paper 2666. World Bank, Research Group, Washington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Rama, Martin. 2002. "Downsizing and Productivity Gains in the Ravallion, Mlartin, and Dominique van de Walle. 2001. "Breaking Public and Private Sectors of Colombia." Policy Research TJp the Collective Farm: Welfare Outcomes of Vietnam's NMas- Working Paper 2770. World Bank, Development Research sive Land Privatization." Policy Research Working Paper 2710. Group, WVashington, I).C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. - . 2003. "Globalization and Workers in Developing . 2003. "Land Allocation in Vietnam's Agrarian Transition." Countries." Policy Research NVorking Paper 2958. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 2951. World Bank, Develop- Development Research Group, WVashington. D.C. ment Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Ranaweera, T'hilak. 2003. "Foreign Aid, Conditionality, and Ghost Ravallion, NMartin, Emanuela Galasso, Teodoro Lazo, and Ernesto of the Financing Gap: A Forgotten Aspect of the Aid Debate." Philipp. 2001. "Do NVorkfare Participants Recover Quickly Policy Research Working Paper 3019. World Bank, Develop- from Retrenchment?" Policy Research NVorking Paper 2672. ment Data Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Rao, Vijavendra, and Ana NMaria Ibafiez. 2003. "The Social Impact Reimer, Jeffrey J. 2002. "Estimating the Poverty Impacts of Trade of Social Funds in Jamaica: A NMixed-NMethods Analysis of Liberalization." Policy Research Working Paper 2790. World Participation, Targeting, and Collective Action in Community- Bank, Development Research Group, NVashington, D.C. Driven Development." Policy Research Working Paper 2970. Reinikka, Ritva, and Jakob Svensson. 2001. "Explaining Leakage World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. of Public Funds." Policy Research Working Paper 2709. World Ratha. Dilip. 2001. "Complementarity between Multilateral Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lending and Private Flows to Developing Countries: Some . 2003. "Survey Techniques to Nleasure and Explain Empirical Results." Policy Research Working Paper 2746. Corruption." Policy Research Working Paper 3071. World Bank, World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. - .2001. "Demand for WN7orld Bank Lending." Policy Research . 2003. "Working for God? Evaluating Service Delivery of Working Paper 2652. World Bank, Economic Policy and Religious Not-for-Profit Health Care Providers in Ulganda." Prospects Group, NVashington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 3058. World Bank, Develop- Ravallion, Nlartin. 2001. "Inequaliry Convergence." Policy Research ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. NVorking Paper 2645. World Bank, Development Research Robalino, David A., Carol Jenkins, and Karim El NMaroufi. 2002. Group. Washington, D.C. "The Risks and Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in the .2001. "Nleasuring Aggregate Welfare in Developing Coun- Nliddle East and North Africa: Why Waiting to Intervene Can tries: How WVell Do National Accounts and Surveys Agree?" Be Costly." Policy Research Working Paper 2874. NVorld Bank, Bank Research Output 1 89 Middle East and North Africa Region, Human Development IPaper 3015. World Bank, Development Research Group, Group, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Rocha, Roberto, and Dimitri Vittas. 2001. "Pension Reform in Sandler, 'l'odd. 2001. "On Financing Global and International Hungary: A Preliminary Assessment." Policy Research Public Goods." Policy Research WNorking Paper 2638. World Working Paper 2631. World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Bank, Economic Policy and Prospects Group, Washington, Region, Private and Financial Sectors Development Ulnit, D.C. Washington, D.C. Sarris, Alexander. 2002. "'I'he D)emand for Commodity Insurance Rutkowski, Jan. 2003. "Rapid Labor Reallocation with a Stagnant by Developing Country Agricultural Producers: Theory and an Unemployment Pool: The Puzzle of the Labor Market in Application to Cocoa in Ghana." Policy Research Working Lithuania." Policy Research WorkingPaper 2946.1World Bank, Paper 2887. World Bank. Development Research Group, Europe and Central Asia Region, Human Development Washington, D.C. Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Schady, Norbert R. 2001. "Who Participates? 'I'he Supply of 2003. "Why Is Unemployment So High in Bulgaria?" Volunteer Labor and the D)istribution of Government Policy Research Working Paper 3017. World Bank, Europe Programs in Rural Peru." Policy Research WVorkingPaper 2671. and Central Asia Region, Human Development Sector T Unit, World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Washington, D.C. Sector [Tnit, Washington, D.C. Saavedra, Luz A. 2001. "Female Wage Inequality in Latin .2002. "'Fhe (Positive) Effect of Macroeconomic Crises on American Labor Markets." Policy Research Working Papcr the Schooling and Employment D)ecisions of Children in a 2741. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Middle-Income Country." Policy Research Working Paper Gender Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. 2762. WVorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Sakakibara, Eisuke, and Sharon Yamakawva. 2003. "Regional Poverty Sector T nit, Washington, D.C. Integration in East Asia: Challenges and Opportunities-P'art Schiff, Nlaurice. 2002. "Regional Integration and Development in 1: History and Institutions." Policy Research Working Paper Small States." IPolicy Research Working Paper 2797. World 3078. World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Reduction and Economic Nlanagement Sector tTnit, - . 2002. "'Frade Policy and Labor Services: Final Status Washington, D.C. Options for the West Bank and Gaza." Policy Research 2003. "Regional Integration in East Asia: C,hallenges and Working Paper 2824. World Bank, Development Research Opportunities-Part Il: Trade, Finance, and Integration." Group, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 3079. World Bank, East Asia Schiff, Nlaurice, and L. Alan Winters. 2002. "Regional Coopera- and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic tion, and the Role of International Organizations and Regional Management Sector UJnit, Washington, D.C. Integration." Policy Research WNorking Paper 2872. World Bank, Sakellariou, Chris N., and Harry A. Patrinos. 2003. "'Fechnology, Development Research Group, Washington. D.C. Computers, and Wages: Evidence from a IDeveloping Schiff. Maurice, Yanling Wang, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2002. Economy." Policy Research Working Paper 3008. World Bank, "Irade-Related 'lechnology Diffusion and the Dynamics of Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Education Sector North-South and South-South Integration." Policy Research Unit, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 2861. World Bank, Development Research Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina. 2002. "Unemployment, Skills, and Group, Washington, D.C. Incentives: An Overviewv of the Safety Net System in the Schmukler, Sergio L.. and Lois Serven. 2002. "Pricing Currency Slovak Republic." Policy Research Working Paper 2753. World Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards." Policy Research Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction Working Paper 2815. World Bank, Development Research and Economic Management Sector U nit, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina, and Norbert R. Schady. 2003. "Off and Scott, David. 2002. "A Practical Guide to NManaging Systemic Running? Technology, Trade, and the Rising Demand for Financial Crises: A Review of Approaches'Faken in Indonesia, Skilled Workers in Latin America." Policy Rescarch Working the Republic of Korea, and Thailand." Policy Research Work- 190 Bank Research Output ing Paper 2843. World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Smarzynska, Beata K. 2002. "The Composition of Foreign Direct Financial Sector Group, Washington, D.C. Investment and Protection of Intellectual Property Rights: Serven, Luis. 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Evidence from Transition Economies." Policy Research Work- Investment in Developing Countries." Policy Research Work- ing Paper 2786. World Bank, Development Research Group, ing Paper 2823. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Washington, D.C. Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. . 2002. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Seshadri, Shreelata Rao, P. Subramaniyam, and Prabhat Jha. 2003. Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers through "The Potential Demand for and Strategic Use of an HIV-1 Backward Linkages." Policy Research Working Paper 2923. Vaccine in Southern India." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, I).C. 3066. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Smarzynska, Beata K., and Shang-Jin Wei. 2001. "Pollution Havens D.C. and Foreign Direct Investment: Dirty Secret or Popular Nlyth?" Shankar, Raja, and Anwar Shah. 2001. "Bridging the Economic Policy Research Working Paper 2673. World Bank, Develop- Divide within Nations: A Scorecard on the Performance of ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Regional Development Policies in Reducing Regional Income Solimano, Andres. 2001. "International Nligration and the Global Disparities." Policy Research Working Paper 2717. World Bank, Economic Order: An Overview." Policy Research Working Operations Evaluation Department, Washington, D.C. Paper 2720. World Bank, Development Research Group, Shankar, Rashmi. 2002. "Distinguishing between Observation- Washington, D.C. ally Equivalent Theories of Crises." Policy Research WVorking Songco, Jocelyn A. 2002. "Do Rural Infrastructure Investments Paper 2926. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Benefit the Poor? Evaluating Linkages: A Global View, a Focus Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. on Vietnam." Policy Research Working Paper 2796. World Shanks, Edwin, and Carrie Turk. 2003. "Refining Policy with the Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Poor: Local Consultations on the Draft Comprehensive Poverty Economic Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Reduction and Growth Strategy in Vietnam." Policy Research Steer, Liesbet, and Markus Taussig. 2002. "A Little Engine That Working Paper 2968. World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Could ... Domestic Private Companies and Vietnam's Press- Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, ing Need for Wage Employment." Policy Research Working Washington, D.C. Paper 2873. World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Shirley, Nlary NM., F F. Tusubira, Frew Amare Gebreab, and Luke Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Wash- Haggarty. 2002. "Telecommunications Reform in Uganda." ington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 2864. World Bank, Develop- Stifel, David, and Harold Alderman. 2003. "The 'Glass of Nlilk' ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Subsidy Program and Nlalnutrition in Peru." Policy Research Shrader, Elizabeth. 2001. "NMethodologies to Measure the Gender Working Paper 3089. World Bank, Development Research Dimensions of Crime and Violence." Policy Research Working Group, Washington, D.C. Paper 2648. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Stover, John, Geoff P Garnett, Steve Seitz, and Steven Forsythe. 2002. Region, Gender Unit, Washington, D.C. "The Epidemiological Impact of an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Devel- Skees, Jerry R., and Ayurzana Enkh-Amgalan. 2002. "Examining oping Countries." Policy Research Working Paper 2811. NVorld the Feasibility of Livestock Insurance in Mongolia." Policy Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 2886. World Bank, East Asia and Swinkels, Rob, and Carrie Turk. 2003. "Strategic Planning for Pacific Region, Rural Development and Natural Resources Poverty Reduction in Vietnam: Progress and Challenges for Sector tUnit, Washington, D.C. NMeeting the Localized Millennium Development Goals." Skees, Jerry R., Panos Varangis, Donald F Larson, and Paul Siegel. Policy Research Working Paper 2961. World Bank, East Asia 2002. "Can Financial Markets Be Tapped to Help Poor and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic People Cope with Weather Risks?" Policy Research Working Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Paper 2812. World Bank, Development Research Group, Tan, Hong, and Gladys 1,6pez-Acevedo. 2003. "Mexico: In-Firm Washington, D.C. Training for the Knowledge Economy." Policy Research Work- Bank Research Output 191 ing Paper 2957. World Bank, World Bank Institute; and Latin Standards." Policy Research Working Paper 2773. World Bank, America and the Caribbean Region, Economic Policy Sector Devclopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. [Jnit, Washington, D.C. Vittas, Dimitri. 2002. "Policies to Promote Saving for Retirement: Trivedi, Pravin K. 2002. "Patterns of Health Care [7tilization in A Synthetic Overview." Policy Research Working Paper 2801. Vietnam: Analysis of 1997-98 Vietnam Living Standards World Bank, Financial Sector Development Department, Survey Data." Policy Research Working Paper 2775. World NVashington, D.C. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. . 2003. "The Insurance Industrv in Nlauritius." Policy Trujillo, Lourdes, Noelia Martin, Antonio Estache, and Javier Research Working Paper 3034. WVorld Bank, Financial Sector Campos. 2002. "Macroeconomic Effects of Private Sector Operations and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Participation in Latin America's Infrastructure." Policy Research - . 2003. "The Role of Occupational Pension Funds in Working Paper 2906. World Bank, World Bank Institute; and Mauritius." Policy Research Norking Paper 3033. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department, Sector, and Infrastructure UJnit, Washington, D.C. WVashington, D.C. Uche, Chibuike U. 2001. "'The Politics of Monetary Sector Wagstaff, Adam. 2002. "Inequalities in Health in Developing Cooperation among the Economic Community of West African Countries: Swimming Against the Tide?" Policy Research States Members." Policy Research Working Paper 2647. World Working Paper 2795. WVorld Bank, Development Research Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Group and Human Development Network, Washington, D).C. Urquiola, Miguel. 2001. "Identifying Class Size Effects in Devel- . 2002. "Inequality Aversion, Health Inequalities, and oping Countries: Evidence from Rural Schools in Bolivia." Health Achievement." P'olicy Research Working Paper 2765. Policy Research Working Paper 2711. World Bank, Develop- World Bank, Development Research Group and Human Devel- ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. opment Network, Washington, D.C. van de Walle, Dominique. 2002. "The Static and Dynamic Wagstaff, Adam, and Nga Nguyet Nguyen. 2002. "Poverty and Incidence of Vietnam's Public Safety Net." Policy Research Survival Prospects of Vietnamese Children under Doi Moi." Working Paper 2791. World Bank, Development Research Policy Research Working Plaper 2832. World Bank, Develop- Group, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. van de Walle, Dominique, and Dorothyjean Cratty. 2003. "Is the Wagstaff, Adam, and Eddy van Doorslaer. 2001. "Paying for Health Emerging Nonfarm Market Economy the Route Out of Poverty Care: Quantifying Fairness, Catastrophe, and Impoverishment, in Vietnam?" Policy Research Working Paper 2950. World with Applications to Vietnam, 1993-98." Policy Research Work- Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ing Paper 2715. WVorld Bank, Development Research Group, Varangis, Panos, Donald F. Larson, and Jock R. Anderson. 2002. Washington, D.C. "Agricultural Markets and Risks: Management of the Latter, Wagstaff, Adam, Pierella Paci, and Heather Joshi. 2001. "Causes Not the Former." Policy Research Working Paper 2793. World of Inequality in Health: Who lou Are? Where You Live? Or Who Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Your Parents Were?" Policy Research WVorking Paper 2713. Varangis, Panos, Paul Siegel, Daniele Giovannucci, and Bryan World Bank, Development Research Group and Human Devel- Lewin. 2003. "Dealing with the Coffee Crisis in Central opment Network, Washington, D.C. America: Impacts and Strategies." Policy Research Working Wagstaff, Adam, Eddy van Doorslaer, and Naoko Watanabe. 2001. Paper 2993. World Bank, Development Research Group. "On Decomposing the Causes of Health Sector Inequalities with Washington, D.C. an Application to Malnutrition Inequalities in Vietnam." Pol- Vegas, Emiliana. 2002. "School Choice, Student Performance, and icy Research Working Paper 2714. World Bank, Development Teacher and School Characteristics: 't'he Chilean Case." Research Group and Development Data Group. Washington, Policy Research Working Paper 2833. World Bank, Develop- D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Wallsten, Scott. 2001. "Ringing in the 20th Century: 'I'he Effects Vijverberg, Wim P. M., and Jonathan Haughton. 2002. "Household of State Monopolies. Private Ownership, and Operating Licenses Enterprises in Vietnam: Survival, Growth, and Living on Telecommunications in Europe, 1892-1914." Policy Research 192 Bank Research Output Working Paper 2690. World Bank, Development Research Watson, Robert, Michael Crawford, and Sara Farley. 2003. "Strate- Group, NVashington, [).C. gic Approaches to Science and Technology in Development." - 2002. "Does Sequencing Mlatter? Regulation and Priva- Policy Research Working Paper 3026. World Bank, Human tization in 'I'elecommunications Reforms." Policy Research Development Network and Environmentally and Socially Working Paper 2817. NVorld Bank, Development Research Sustainable Development Vice Presidency, Washington, Group, WVashington, D.C. D.C. - 2003. "Regulation and Internet UTsc in Developing Coun- Wilson, John S. 2002. "Liberalizing Trade in Agriculture: Devel- tries." Policy Research W7torking Paper 2979. World Bank, oping Countries in Asia and the Post-Doha Agenda." Policy Developmcnt Rescarch Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 2804. World Bank, Development W;ang, Hua, and Wenhua Di. 2002. "The Determinants of Gov- Research Group, Washington, D.C. ernment Environmental Performance: An Empirical Analysis Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2001. "Global Trade and of Chinese 'lownships." Policy Research WVorking Paper 2937. Food Safety: Winners and Losers in a Fragmented System." World Bank, D)evelopment Research Group, Washington, Policy Research Working Paper 2689. World Bank, Develop- D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Wang, Hua, and Yanhong Jin. 2002. "Industrial Ownership and . 2002. "To Spray or Not to Spray? Pesticides, Banana Environmental Performance: Eicidence from China." Policy Exports, and Food Safety." Policy Research Working Paper 2805. Research Working P'aper 2936. World Bank, Development World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Group, NVashington, D.C. Wilson, John S., Catherine L. NMann, and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2003. Wang, Hua, Nlandu Nlamingi. Benoit Laplante, and Susmita "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: Nleasuring the Dasgupta. 2002. "Incomplete Enforcement of Pollution Impact." Policy Research Working Paper 2988. World Bank, Regulation: Bargaining Power of Chinese Factories." Policy Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 27.56. WNorld Bank, Developnment Wilson, John S., Tsunehiro Otsuki, and Nlirvat Sewadeh. 2002. Research Group. XVashington, D.C. "Dirty Exports and Environmental Regulation: Do Standards Wang, Hua, Jun Bi, David Wheeler, Jinnan Wang, Dong Cao, NMatter to 'T'rade?" Policy Research Working Paper 2806. World Genfa Lu. and Yuan WN7ang. 2002. "Environmental Performance Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Rating and Disclosure: China's Grecn-Watch Program." Policy Woolf, Fiona, and Jonathan Halpern. 2001. "Integrating Inde- Research Working Paper 2889. World Bank, Development pendent Power Producers into Emerging Wholesale Power Research Group, Washington, D.C. Markets." Policy Research Working Paper 2703. World Bank, Wang, Limin. 2002. "Health Outcomes in Poor Countries and Energy and Water D)epartment; and Latin America and the Policy Options: Empirical Findings from Demographic and Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure Health Surveys." Policy Research Working Paper 2831. WVorld [Init, Washington, D.C. Bank, Environment Department, Washington, D.C. Yang, Guifang, and Keith E. Nlaskus. 2003. "Intellectual Property Wang, Yan, and YudongYao. 2001. \l.:, .r,,r- Economic Down- Rights, Licensing, and Innovation." Policy Research Working side Risk and Severity." Policy Research Working Paper 2674. Paper 2973. World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- NVorld Bank. World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. ington, D.C. 2001. "Sources of China's Economic Growth, 1952-99: Incorporating Htuman Capital AccUmulation." Policy Research G. Other Bank Working Papers WVorking Paper 2650. NVorld Bank, World Bank Institute, Wash- ington, D.C. Africa Region Human Development Working Papers Watkins, Alfred. 2003. "From Knowledge to Wealth: Transform- Adeyi, Olusoji, Robert Hecht, Elesani Njobvu, and Agnes Soucat. ing Russian Science and Technology for a Modern Knowledge 2001. "AIDS, Poverty Reduction, and Debt Relief: A Toolkit Economy." Policy Research Working Paper 2974. World Bank, for Mlainstreaming HIV/AIDS Programs into Development Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and Financial Sectors Instruments." Africa Region Human Development Working Development Ulnit, Washington. L).C. Paper 8. Bank Research Output 193 Ainsworth, Martha, Kathleen Beegle, and Godlike Koda. 2002. Picazo, Oscar E 2002. "Better Health Outcomes from Limited "The Impact of Adult Mortality on Primary School Enroll- Resources: Focusing on Priority Services in Malawi." Africa ment in Northwestern Tanzania." Africa Region Human Devel- Region Human Development Working Paper 24. opment Working Paper 22. Soucat, Agnes, Abdo Yazbeck, Rudolf Knippenberg, Francois Andvig, Jens Christopher, Sudharshan Canagarajah, and Anne Diop, Mark Wheeler, Shiyan Chao, and Sergin Luculescu. Kielland. 2001. "Issues in Child Labor in Africa." Africa Region 2001. "Rapid Guidelines for Integrating Health, Nutrition, Human Development Working Paper 14. and Population Issues into the Poverty Reduction Strategies of Carceles, Gabriel, Birger Fredriksen, and Patrick Watt. 2001. "Can Low-Income Countries." Africa Region Human Development Africa Reach the International Targets for Human Develop- Working Paper 16. (Available in French as Africa Region Human ment? 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Africa L,ewis, Jeffrey D., Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder. Region Working Paper 39. 2002. "Free Trade Agreements and the SADC Economies." Fofack. Hippolyte, Chukwuuma Obidegwu, and Robert Ngong. Africa Region NVorking Paper 27. 2003. "Public Expenditure Performance in Rwanda: Evidencc N'lanalo, NMarilyn S. 2003. "Nficrofinance Institutions' Response in from a Public Expenditure Tracking Study in the Health and Conflict Environments: Eritrea-Savings and Micro Credit Education Sectors." Africa Region Working lPaper 45. Program, West Bank and Gaza-Palestine for Credit and Devel- Bank Research Output 195 opment, and Haiti-Micro Credit National, S. A." Africa Region Aidt, Toke, and Zafiris Tzannatos. 2001. "The Costs and Working Paper 54. Benefits of Collective Bargaining: A Survey." Social Protection Mbaye, Ahmadou Aly. 2002. "An Industry-Level Analysis of Discussion Paper 120. Manufacturing Productivity in Senegal." Africa Region Alderman, Harold. 2002. "Subsidies as a Social Safety Net: Working Paper 41. Effectiveness and Challenges." Social Protection Discussion Michailof, Serge, Markus Kostner, and Xavier Devictor. 2002. Paper 224. "Post-Conflict Recovery in Africa: An Agenda for the Africa Andvig, Jens Christopher. 2001. "Family-Controlled Child Labor Region." Africa Region Working Paper 30. in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Survey of Research." Social Protec- Mistiaen, Johan A., Berk Ozler, Tiaray Razafimanantena, and Jean tion Discussion Paper 122. Razafindravonona. 2002. "Putting Welfare on the NMap in Anusic, Zoran, Philip O'Kcefe, and Sanja Nladzarevic-Sujster. Madagascar." Africa Region Working Paper 34. 2003. "Pension Reform in Croatia." Social Protection Ndegwa, Stephen N. 2002. "Decentralization in Africa: A Stock- Discussion Paper 304. taking Survey." Africa Region Working Paper 40. Barrientos, Armando, and Stephanie Ware Barrientos. 2002. Ng, Francis, and Alexander Yeats. 2002. "What Can Africa Expect "Extending Social Protection to Informal Workers in the from Its Traditional Exports?" Africa Region Working Paper 26. Horticulture Global Value Chain." Social Protection Discussion Ouattara, Korotoumou. 2003. "Microfinance Regulation in Benin: Paper 216. Implications of the PARMEC Law for Development and Betcherman, Gordon. 2002. "An Overview of Labor Markets Performance of the Industry." Africa Region Working Paper 50. Worldwide: Key Trends and Major Policy Issues." Social Paternostro, Stefano, Jean Razafindravonona, and David Stifel. 20(01. Protection Discussion Paper 205. "Changes in Poverty in Madagascar: 1993-99." Africa Region Betcherman, Gordon, Amy Luinstra, and Makoto Ogawa. 2001. Working Paper 19. "Labor Market Regulation: International Experience in Pigato, Nliria A. 2002. "Information and Communication Tech- Promoting Employment and Social Protection." Social nology, Poverty, and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa and Protection Discussion Paper 128. South Asia." Africa Region WVorking Paper 20. Bhalotra, Sonia. 2001. "Is Child Work Necessary?" Social Protec- Randhawa, Bikki, and Joselito Gallardo. 2003. "Mlicrofinance tion Discussion Paper 121. Regulation in Tanzania: Implications for Development and Bhalotra, Sonia, and Christopher Heady. 2001. "Child Farm Labor: Performance of the Industry." Africa Region Working Paper 51. 'l'he Wealth Paradox." Social Protection Discussion Paper 125. Steel, William F, and David 0. Andah. 2002. "Rural and Micro Bitran, Ricardo, and ITrsula (Giedion. 2003. "Waivers and Exemp- Finance Regulation in Ghana: Implications for Development tions for Health Services in Developing Countries." Social and Performance of the Industry." Africa Region Working Protection Discussion Paper 308. Paper 49. Blunch, Niels-Hugo, Sudharshan Canagarajah, and Sangeeta Goyal. Verhey, Beth. 2001. "Child Soldiers: Preventing, Demobilizing, and 2002. "Short- and Long-Term Impacts of Economic Policies on Reintegrating." Africa Region Working Paper 23. Child Labor and Schooling in Ghana." Social Protection Ye, Xiao, and Sudharshan Canagarajah. 2002, "Efficiency of Pub- Discussion Paper 212. lic Expenditure Distribution and Beyond: A Report on Ghana's Blunch, Niels-Hugo, Sudharshan Canagarajah, and Dhushyanth 2000 Public Expenditure Tracking Survey in the Sectors of Pri- Raju. 2001. "The Informal Sector Revisited: A Synthesis across mary Health and Education." Africa Region Working Paper 31. Space and Time." Social Protection Discussion Paper 119. Zafar, Ali, and Keiko Kubota. 2003. "Regional Integration in Cen- Blunch, Niels-Hugo, Amit Dar, Lorenzo Guarcello, Scott Lyon, tral Africa: Key Issues." Africa Region Working Paper 52. Amy Ritualo, and Furio Rosati. 2002. "Child Work in Zambia: A Comparative Study of Survey Instruments." Social Protec- Human Development Network, Social Protection Discussion Papers tion Discussion Paper 228. Acufia, Rodrigo, and Augusto Iglesias. 2001. "Chile's Pension Bodewig, Christian. 2002. "Emerging from Ethnic Conflict: Chal- Reform after 20 Years." Social Protection Discussion Paper lenges for Social Protection Design in Transition Countries." 129. Social Protection Discussion Paper 229. 196 Bank Researth Output Canagarajah, Sudharshan, and S. XI Sethuraman. 2001. "Social lro- Fox, Louise, and Ragnar Gbjtestam. 2003. "Redirecting Resources tection and the Informal Sector in Developing Countries: Chal- to Community-Based Services: A Concept Paper." Social lenges and Opportunities." Social Protection Discussion Paper 130. Protection Discussion Paper 311. Canagarajah, Sudharshan. Amit Dar, R. Nording, and Dhushyanth Gl, Robert 1., Andras Simonovits, and Geza Tarcali. 2001. RajL. 2002. "Effectiveness of Lending for Vocational Edluca- "Generational Accounting and Hungarian Pension Reform." tion and Training: Lessons from World Bank Experience." Social Protection Discussion Paper 127. Social Protection I)iscussion P'aper 222. Graham, Carol. 2002. "Public Attitudes NMatter: A Conceptual Cigno, Alessandro. Furio Camillo Rosati, and Zafiris Tzannatos. Frame for Accounting for Political Economy in Safety Nets and 2001. "Child Labor, Nutrition, and EFducation in Rural India: Social Assistance Policies." Social Protection Discussion Paper An Economic Analysis of Parental Choice and Policy Options." 233. Social Protection Diiscussion lPapcr 131. Grimsrtd. Bjorne. 2001. "Measuring and Analyzing Child Labor: 2002. "Child Labor Handbook." Social Protection Dis- Mlethodological Issues." Social Protection Discussion Paper cussion Paper 206. 123. Dar, Amit, Niels-Hugo Blunch. Bona Kim, and N\asaru Sasaki. 2002. - . 2001. "What Can Be Done about Child Labor? An "Participation of Children in Schooling and Labor Activities: Overview of Recent Research and Its Implications for Design- A Review of Empirical Studies." Social Protection Discussion ing Programs to Reduce Child Labor." Social Protection Paper 221. Discussion Paper 124. Das, Nlaitreyi Bordia, and Sonalde Desai. 2003. "Why Are Gross, Alexandra, and Samantha de Silva. 2002. "Social Fund Educated WNomen Less Likely to Be Employed in India? Support of Microfinance: A Review of Implementation Testing Competing Hypotheses." Social Protection Discus- Experience." Social Protcction Discussion Paper 215. sion Paper 313. Hcitzmann. Karin, Sudharshan Canagarajah, and Paul B. Siegel. Deininger, Klaus. Anja Crommclvnck, and Gloria Kempaka. 2002. 2002. "Guidelines for Assessing the Sources of Risk and "Long-Term Welfare and Investment Impact of AIDS-Related Vulnerability." Social Protection Discussion Paper 218. Changes in Family Composition: Evidence from Uganda." lItinter, Susan S. 2002. "Supporting and Expanding Community- Social Protection Discussion Paper 207. Based HIV/AIDS Prcvention and Care Responses: A Report de Neubourg, Chris. 2002. "Incentives and the Role of Institutions on the Save the Children (U.S.) MIalawi COPE Project." Social in Provision of Social Safctv Nets." Social P'rotection Discus- Protection Discussion Paper 211. sion Paper 226. Katsura, Harold NM., and Clare T Romanik. 2002. "Ensuring Access Devesa-Carpio, Jose E., and Carlos Vidal-Nlelia. 2002. "The tc) Essential Services: Demand-Side Housing Subsidies." Social Reformed Pension Systems in Latin America." Social Protection l)iscussion Paper 232. Protection Discussion Paper 209. Kaur, Iqbal. and Zafiris Tzannatos. 2002. "I'he WVorld Bank and Doyle, Suzanne, and John Piggort. 2002. "MIandatory Annuity Children: A Review of Activities." Social Protection Discussion Design in Developing Economics." Social Protection D)iscus- Paper 220. sion Paper 208. Kolev. Alexandre. 2003. "Joblessness and Precarious Work in Duclos, Jean-I'ves. 2002. "Vulnerability and Poverty NMcasurcment BLulgaria: Addressing the Miultiple Aspects of Vulnerability in Issues for Public Policyv" Social Protection Discussion Paper 230. the Labor Market." Social Protection Discussion Paper 303. Esguerra, Jude H., Mlakoto Ogawa, and Mlilan Vodopivcc. 2002. Koichnast, Kathleen. 2003. "Gender and Social Funds: Challenges "Options of Public Income Support for the t fnemploved in the and Opportunities." Social Protection Discussion Paper 309. Philippines." Social Protection Discussion Paper 204. Lasagabaster, Esperanza, Roberto Rocha, and Patrick Wiese. 20)02. Ezemenari, Kene, Nazmul Chaudhury, and Janet Owvens. 20(02. "Czech lPension System: Challenges and Reform Options." "Gender and Risk in the D)esign of Social Protection Inter- Social Protection Discussion Paper 217. ventions." Social Protection Discussion Paper 231. Leipold. Knut. 2002. "Social Protection at Your Fingertips: Using Fox, Louise. 2003. "Safety Nets in 'Iransition Economics: A Information and Communications Technologies in Social Primer." Social Protection Discussion Paper 306. Protection." Social Protection Discussion Paper 213. Bank Reseorch Output 197 Lcvine, Anthony, ed. 2001. "Orphans and Other Vulnerable Tabor, Steven R. 2002. "Assisting the Poor with Cash: Design Children: What Role for Social Protection?" Social Protection and Implementation of Social Transfer Programs." Social Discussion Paper 1 26. Protection Discussion Paper 223. MLcLeod, Dinah, and Maurizia Tovo. 2001. "Social Services Deliv- Vodopivec, Milan, and Dhushyanth Raju. 2002. "Income Support cry through Community-Based Projects." Social Protection Systems for the Unemployed: Issues and Options." Social D)iscussion Paper 118. Protection Discussion Paper 214. Nlorduch, Jonathan, and NManohar Sharma. 2002. "Strengthening Vodopivec, Milan, Andreas Worgotter, and Dhushyanth Raju. 2003. IPublic Safety Nets from the Bottom Up." Social Protection "Unemployment Benefit Systems in Central and Eastern Europe: I)iscussion Paper 227. A Review of the 1990s." Social Protection Discussion Paper 310. M\ltiongc, Joe. 2002. "World Vision's Experience Working with Vroman, Wayne. 2002. "UTnemployment Insurance and Unem- HIV/AIDS Orphans in Uganda 1990-1995." Social Protection ployment Assistance: A Comparison." Social Protection Dis- [Discussion Paper 210. cussion Paper 203. Palacios, Robert. 2002. "Nlanaging Public Pension Reserves, Part Walker, Eduardo, and Fernando Lefort. 2002. "Pension Reform and Il: Lessons from Five Recent OECD Initiatives." Social Capital Nlarkets: Are There Any (Hard) Links?" Social Pro- Protection Discussion Paper 219. tection Discussion Paper 201. P'ilotti, Francisco, and NMaria Claudia Camacho. 2003. "Politicas y programas dc juventud en America Latina y El Caribe: Social Development Department, (onflict Prevention Contexto y principales caracteristicas." Social Protection and Reconstruction Unit Working Papers Discussion Paper 312. NMcKechnie, Alastair. 2003. "Humanitarian Assistance, Recon- Ravallion. MNlartin. 2003. "Targeted Transfers in Poor Countries: struction, and Development in Afghanistan: A Practitioners' Revisiting the Tlradeoffs and Policy Options." Social Protection View." CPR Working Paper 3. Discussion Paper 314. Rohland, Klaus, and Sarah Cliffe. 2002. "The East Timor Recon- Riboud. Nlichelle, Carolina Sanchez-Paramo, and Carlos Silva- struction Program: Successes, Problems, and Tradeoffs." CPR J.iuregui. 2002. "Does Eurosclerosis Matter? Institutional Reform Working Paper 2. and Labor NMarket Performance in Central and Eastern European Sambanis, Nicholas. 2003. "Ulsing Case Studies to Expand the The- Countrics in the 1990s." Social Protection Discussion Paper 202. ory of Civil War." CPR Working Paper 5. Rogcrs, Beatrice Lorge, and Jennifer Coates. 2002. "Food-Based Schiavo-Campo, S. 2003. "Financing and Aid Arrangements in Safctv Nets and Related Programs." Social Protection Post-Conflict Settings." CPR Working Paper 6. Discussion Papcr 225. Sommers, NMarc. 2002. "Children, Education, and War: Reaching Rosati, Camillo, and Zafiris Tzannatos. 2003. "Child Work: An Education for All (EFA) Objectives in Countries Affected by Expositorv Framework of Altruistic and Non-Altruistic Conflict." CPR Working Paper 1. Niodcls." Social Protection Discussion Paper 305. Roltber, P. C.., N. Catenaro, and G. Schwab. 2003. "Ageing and H. Background Papers to World Development Pensions in the Euro Area: Survey and Projection Results." Reports 2003 and 2004 Social Protection Discussion Paper 307. Rutkowski, Jan J. 2001. "Earnings Inequality in Transition World Development Report 2003: Sustainable Development Economies of Central Europe: Trends and Patterns during the in a Dynamic Economy-Transforming Institutions, Growth, 1990s." Social Plrotection Discussion Paper 117. and Quality of Life Smith, \V. James, and Kalanidhi Subbarao. 2003. "What Role for Acharya, Gayatri. and John Dixon. "No One Said It Was Going to Safety Net Transfers in Very Low Income Countries?" Social Be Easy: An Analysis of the Recommendations Made by the Protection Discussion Paper 301. 1992 WlorldDevelopment Report and the Experience of the Last Sobbarao, Kalanidhi. 2003. "Systemic Shocks and Social Protec- Decade." tion: Role and Effectiveness of Public Works Programs." Social Bertaud, Alain. "The Spatial Organization of Cities: Deliberate IProtection Discussion Paper 302. Outcome or Unforeseen Consequence?" 198 Bank Research Output Brekke, Kjell Arne, and Desmond McNeill. "Identity Signaling Centre for Economic Analysis. "The Provision of Social Services in Consumption: A Case for Provision of More Public Goods." and the Emerging Welfare State: A Norwegian Perspective." Das Gupta, Monica. "Population and Sustainable Development." Clark. Prema. "Education Reform in the Education Guarantee Gates, Scott, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Eric Neumayer. Scheme in NMadhya Plradesh, India, and the Fundescola Program "Environmental Commitment, Democracy, and Inequality." in Brazil." Hannesson, Rognvaldur. "The Development of Economic Coady. David. "Alleviating Structural Poverty in Developing Institutions in World Fisheries." Countries: 'I'he Case of Progresa in Nlexico." Hoff, Karla. "Paths of Development and Institutional Barriers to Das Gupta. Mlonica, Peyvand Khaleghian, and Rakesh Sarwal. Economic Opportunities." "Governance of Communicable Disease Control Services." Holtedahl, Pernille, and Haakon Vennemo. "Environmental Diaz-Caveros, Alberto, and Beatriz NMagaloni. "'The Politics of Challenges in China: Determinants of Success and Failure." Public Spending, Part I-The Logic of Vote Buying." Janeba, Eckhard, and Guttorm Schjeldrup. "The Future of - . "The Politics of Public Spending, Part 11-The Programa Globalization: Tax Competition and Trade Liberalization." Nacional de Solidaridad (PRONASOL) in Mexico." Jayasuriya, Ruwan, and Quentin Wodon. "Explaining Country Erikson, Dan. Annie Lord, and Peter Wolf. "Introduction to Cuba's Efficiency in Improving Health and Education Indicators: The Social Services." Role of Urbanization." Ferrinho, Paulo, and Wim Van Lerberghe. "Civil Society Organi- Kuhnle, Stein, Sanjeev Prakash, Huck-ju Kwon, and Per Selle. zations and the Poor: The Unfulfilled Expectations." "Political Institutions, Democracy, and Welfare: A Comparative . I .i. r. Health Professionals in the Context of Study of Norway and Korea." Limited Resources: A Fine Line between Corruption and the Murshed, Mansoob S. "On Natural Resource Abundance and Need for Moonlighting." lUnderdevelopment." Filmer, Deon. "Determinants of Health and Education Prakash, Sanjeev, and Per Selle. "Associations, Participation, and Outcomes." Government: Linking Local Communities and State Actors in . "The Incidence of Public Expenditures on Health and Sustainable Rural Development." Education." Pratt, Jane D., and John D. Schilling. "Sustainable Development Gauri. Varun. "Vouchers for Basic Education in Developing Coun- in Mountains: Managing Resources and Reducing Poverty." tries: A Principal-Agent Perspective." Sambanis, Nicholas. "Preventing Violent Civil Conflict: The Scope Halonen, NMaija. "Coordination Failure in Foreign Aid." and Limits of Government Action." Keefer, Philip, and Stuti Khemani. "The Political Economy of Steinberg, Paul. "Civic Environmentalism in Developing Coun- Public Expenditires." tries: Opportunities for Innovation in State-Society Relations." Khaleghian, Pevvand. "Decentralization and Public Services: The Tesli, Arne. "The Use of EIA and SEA Relative to the Objective Case of Immunization." of Sustainable Development." Knack, Stephen, and Aminur Rahman. "Donor Fragmentation Zainabi, Ahmed. "La Vallee du Dra: Development alternatif et and Bureaucratic Quality in Aid Recipients." action communautaire." Knippenberg. Rudolf, Fatoumata Traore Nafo, Raimi Osseni, Yero Bove Camara, Abdelwahid El Abassi. and Agnes L. B. Soucat. World Development Report 2004: Making Services "Increasing Clients' Power to Scale tJp Health Services for the Work for Poor People Poor: The Bamako Initiative in West Africa." Anderson, James, Daniel Kaufmann, and Francesca Recanatini. Leonard, Kenneth L., and Nlelkioru NMasatu. "Report on Basic Find- "Service Delivery, Poverty, and Corruption-Common Threads ings in Outpatient Facility Evaluations in Arusha Municipal- from Diagnostic Surveys." ity, Arumeru District, and Monduli District, Arusha Region, Andrews, Matthew, and J. 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