THE COST OF AIR POLLUTION IN LAGOS Lelia Croitoru, Jiyoun Christina Chang and Andrew Kelly NOVEMBER 2019 TASK TEAM LEADER: JOSEPH AKPOKODJE THE COST OF AIR POLLUTION IN LAGOS Lelia Croitoru, Jiyoun Christina Chang and Andrew Kelly with Abimbola Adeboboye, Rose Alani, Iguniwari Ekeu-Wei, Jia Jun Lee and John Allen Rogers Task Team Leader: Joseph Akpokodje NOVEMBER 2019 © 2019 World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Email: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved. This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of World Bank Group or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. World Bank Group encour- ages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with com- plete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone: 978-750-8400, fax: 978-750-4470, http:///www.copyright.com/. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Officer of the Publisher, World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202- 522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photos credit: Top left: Courtesy of Iguniwari Ekeu-Wei; Top right: Johnny Greig / Alamy Stock Photo; Bottom: Novarc Images / Alamy Stock Photo; Back cover: Novarc Images / Alamy Stock Photo. CONTENTS Foreword v Acknowledgements vii Executive Summary ix Chapter 1: Overview of Ambient Air Pollution in Lagos 1 1.1. Introduction 1 1.2. Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution in Lagos 2 Chapter 2: The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 5 2.1. Cost of Air Pollution 5 2.2. Discussion 8 Chapter 3: Sources of Air Pollution 11 3.1. Review of Source Apportionment Studies in Lagos 11 3.2. Road Transport 12 Chapter 4: Options for Air Pollution Control 17 4.1. Road Transport 17 4.2. Industry and Power 20 4.3. Other Options 20 References 23 TABLES Table 1: PM2.5 Concentration in Lagos City 3 Table 2: Impact of Air Pollution in Select Coastal Cities of Africa 8 FIGURES Figure 1: Annual Mean Concentration of PM2.5 in Different Megacities 4 Figure 2: Mortality Due to PM2.5 Exposure, by Age Group 7 Figure 3: The Total Length of Rail-Based Rapid Transit System Network per Million People in Selected Megacities 13 Photo Credit: Irene Abdou / Alamy Stock Photo FOREWORD Africa is home to some of the world’s fastest growing cities. These cities are booming: they have job opportunities, infrastructure, and educational systems. But many are breathing polluted air. Every year, air pollution takes thousands of lives, particularly young children, and has negative impact on people’s health. It devastates the poor. How long can this continue? This report sheds light on the impact of air pollution in Lagos, one of the fastest growing megacities in the world. Using available ground-level monitored data and the most recent valuation techniques, the report shows that air pollution causes 11,200 deaths every year. Investing in actions to improve air quality would generate invaluable lifesaving benefits. Lagos is growing fast - there is no time to lose. Maria Sarraf Practice Manager Environment, Natural Resources and Blue Economy, West Africa Region World Bank The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos v Photo Credit: Johnny Greig / Alamy Stock Photo ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by a team composed of Lelia Croitoru (Environmental Economist, Consultant), Jiyoun Christina Chang (Young Professional) and Andrew Kelly (Consultant, EnvEcon Decision Support). The task team leader is Joseph Akpokodje (Senior Environmental Specialist). The report was prepared under the technical guidance of Maria Sarraf (Practice Manager), with contributions from Abimbola Adeboboye (Environmental and Health Consultant), Rose Alani (Senior Lecturer, University of Lagos, Department of Chemistry), Iguniwari Ekeu-Wei (Envi- ronmental and Natural Resources Consultant), Jia Jun Lee (Research Analyst) and John Allen Rogers (Transportation Consultant). The team would like to acknowledge the valuable technical support provided by Mr. Tayo Oseni-Ope (Director), Mr. Peter Kehinde Olowu (Deputy Director), and Mrs. Bolanle Pemede (Assistant Director) at the Lagos State Ministry of Economic Plan- ning and Budget/Lagos Bureau of Statistics; Dr. Idowu Abiola (Director, Lagos Health Management Information System) and Dr. Kuburat Enitan Layeni-Adeyemo (Direc- tor, Occupational Health Services) at Lagos State Ministry of Health; Dr. Frederic Oladeinde (Director, Corporate and Investment Planning Department), Mr. Obafemi Shitta-Bey (Deputy Director, Corporate and Investment Planning Department) and Mr. Ayodipupo Quadri (Environment and Safety Specialist) at Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority; Mr. Lewis  Gregory  Adeyemi (Chief Scientific Officer) at the Lagos State Ministry of Environment/Lagos State Environmental Protection Agency; and Mr. Adedotun Atobasire (Deputy Director, Census) at the National Popu- lation Commission; and Mr. Emmanuel Ojo (Former Focal Point and Deputy Direc- tor, Pollution Control and Environmental Health Department) at the Federal Ministry of Environment. The team is grateful for the support provided by Benoît Bosquet (Director) and by the peer-reviewers Olatunji Ahmed (Senior Transport Specialist), Roger Gorham (Senior Transport Economist), Jostein Nygard (Senior Environmental Specialist) and Katelijn Van den Berg (Senior Environmental Specialist). Special thanks are given to Yewande Aramide Awe (Senior Environmental Engineer), Stefano Pagiola (Senior Environmen- tal Economist), Ernesto Sanchez-Triana (Lead Environmental Specialist), and Elena Strukova (Environmental Economist, Consultant) for their constructive suggestions. Madjiguene Seck (Communications Officer) and Will Kemp (Graphic Designer) made valuable contributions to the publication. The study was financed by the World Bank’s Pollution Management and Environmen- tal Health (PMEH) multi-donor trust fund. PMEH is supported by the governments of Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom. The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos vii Photo Credit: Irene Abdou / Alamy Stock Photo EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ambient air pollution is a major contributor to mortality and morbidity. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is especially harmful to human health. Globally, exposure to ambient PM2.5 caused 2.9 million premature deaths in 2017, or about 9 percent of total deaths in the world. In West Africa region, it was responsible for about 80,000 premature deaths1 in the same year. The problem is particularly acute in Nigeria, which had the highest number of premature deaths due to ambient PM2.5 in the region; and espe- cially in Lagos, the country’s commercial capital and one of the world’s fastest growing megacities. Despite growing concern about air pollution in Lagos, there is currently no reliable estimate of the impact of ambient air pollution, nor a comprehensive air pollution control plan. This report addresses this gap by providing an estimate of the impact of ambient PM2.5 on health, an analysis of the main pollution sources, and a set of possible options to control air pollution in Lagos. Economic cost of air pollution. Currently, there are no operational air quality monitoring stations in Lagos. Available air quality data are largely based on short- term and irregular measurements, using air samplers. Only a few studies monitored PM2.5 over longer periods (e.g. one year) in a few representative locations of the city. Using these data and the exposed population in each location, this report quantifies the annual average PM2.5 concentration at about 68 µg/m3—which is in the same range with that of other very polluted megacities, such as Beijing and Cairo. It then estimates the health cost of air pollution at US$2.1 billion (Naira 631 billion) in 2018.2 This corresponds to about 1.3 percent of Lagos State’s GDP.3 Exposure to ambient PM2.5 is responsible for about 11,200 premature deaths4—the highest number in West Africa,5 making ambient air pollution a very pressing challenge. Children under five are the most affected group—primarily due to lower respiratory infections—accounting for about 60 percent of the total PM2.5-related deaths.6 Special attention should be targeted to this age group when designing programs for reducing health impacts from air pollution. 1 Moreover, exposure to household air pollution from solid fuels was responsible for an additional 172,000 premature deaths in 2017 (https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ ). 2 It is in the same range as the cost of ambient air pollution in Greater Cairo, estimated at US$2.6 billion, or 1.35 per- cent of the country’s GDP in 2017 (World Bank 2019a). 3 Based on Lagos State’ GDP estimated at US$157.7 billion for 2018 by the Lagos Bureau of Statistics (https:// lagosstate.gov.ng/about-lagos/) 4 A portion of this estimate accounts for deaths due to the joint effect of exposure to both ambient and household air pollution (WHO 2018). 5 It is substantially higher than in many other West African capitals such as Abidjan, Cotonou, Dakar and Lomé. 6 This result is consistent with the 2017 GBD study, which found that children under five account for a similar proportion in the total ambient PM2.5-related deaths at the national level in Nigeria. The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos ix Pollution sources. Road transport, industrial emis- should be based on the cost of implementing them and sions, and power generation are major contributors to air the associated benefits in terms of reducing air pollution, pollution in Lagos. Although a refined source apportion- which further depend on the context of Lagos. It is clear ment study is needed to quantify the contribution of each from the outset that no single action can solve the air pol- source, road transport stands out as a key source of PM2.5, lution challenges faced by the city. An evidence-based air primarily due to: high vehicle density (227 vehicles/km/ pollution control plan, that considers actions across the day), use of old emission technologies (most cars are older most polluting sectors, is required and envisaged by the than 15 years), high sulfur content in imported diesel and Lagos PMEH/AQM project. gasoline fuel (3,000 ppm in diesel and 1,000 ppm in gaso- line), and limited transportation options in the city (there Priority areas for future work. This study is based are only 1.3 km/million people of intra-city rail, far less on a comprehensive review of existing air quality moni- than in other megacities). toring, health information and sectoral data in Lagos; and intervention options that have successfully reduced air Pollution control options. Based on the experience of pollution in other developing countries. However, avail- other developing countries, options that could be investi- able information in many of these areas are limited. To gated to reduce emissions in the main polluting sectors in refine these results, priority areas for future work are pre- Lagos relate to: sented below, most of which are expected to be delivered »» road transport, e.g. incentives for purchasing cleaner by the Lagos Pollution Management and Environmental passenger vehicles, vehicle inspections, retrofitting Health/Air Quality Monitoring (PMEH/AQM) project: the most polluting vehicles, shift to public trans- »» conduct long-term monitoring of ambient PM2.5 in port, adoption of cleaner fuel, etc. Some of these several locations, representative for major activities measures are already underway: for example, stan- in the city (e.g. transport, industry, landfills), apply- dards for fuels were lowered to 50 ppm for diesel ing international best practices. and 150 ppm for gasoline in 2017. However, these »» centralize health data (e.g. mortality and morbidity changes are still awaiting Government approval by cause and age) at the city level. and implementation. »» develop and validate an inventory of air pollutant »» industry and power, e.g. implementation of best avail- emissions in Lagos. able technologies in the most polluting industries; »» conduct refined source apportionment works that use of solar cells with battery storage for power quantify and localize the contribution of each ma- generation. jor source of pollution to the PM2.5 concentration »» other sectors, e.g. waste, agriculture, construction and in the city. shipping. »» identify a suitable set of air pollution control op- tions, based on their economic, technical and insti- The options identified above include measures that have tutional feasibility in Lagos. been successfully implemented in different countries to »» examine the impact of household air pollution on curtail air pollution. However, the choice of measures health in Lagos. x The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos Photo Credit: Joerg Boethling / Alamy Stock Photo Photo Credit: Chris Frost / Alamy Stock Photo CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW OF AMBIENT AIR POLLUTION IN LAGOS Cities are nowadays at the center of economic activities, and urbanization is an unavoidable path to development (Folberth et al. 2015). However, high rates of urban- ization and industrial development contribute to increasing pollutant emissions in the atmosphere. Air pollution has devastating effects particularly in the world’s growing megacities7 (Gurjar et al. 2008; Mage et al. 1996); these effects are more pronounced in the megacities of developing countries (Komolafe et al. 2014). This chapter dis- cusses the problem of ambient air pollution in Nigeria, with special focus on ambient fine particulate pollution in Lagos. 1.1. INTRODUCTION Ambient air pollution is a major contributor to human mortality and morbidity (Cohen et al. 2005). World Health Organization (WHO) identified four pollutants for which there is strong evidence of health effects on humans: particulate matter (PM), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (WHO 2005). Among them, PM has received significant attention in recent years due to its adverse impact on health. It is the most relevant indicator for urban air quality (Cohen et al. 2005). In particular, long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5)—particulate matter with aerody- namic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers, is especially harmful to health, as it can pass the barriers of the lung and enter the blood stream, causing premature deaths as well as respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (Brook et al. 2010)8. Therefore, this report focuses primarily on PM2.5. Globally, ambient PM2.5 pollution caused 2.9 million premature deaths, or about 9 percent of total global deaths in 2017 (GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators 2018). In West Africa region, it was responsible for about 80,000 premature deaths in the same year. The problem is particularly acute in Nigeria, the country with the highest 7 Megacities are urban agglomerations having over 10 million inhabitants (https://population.un.org/wup/). 8 Because of its significant impact on health, recent global flagship reports on health and air pollution by the World Bank, WHO and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) focused on PM2.5 (OECD Development Centre 2016). The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 1 number of premature deaths in the region due to ambient derived data. The table shows that PM2.5 concentration PM2.5 pollution (49,100). Overall, the rate of premature varies from 12 µg/m3 to 85 µg/m3, depending on the loca- mortality due to ambient PM2.5 pollution in Nigeria (23.8 tion, season, time frame and year of sampling. premature deaths per 100,000 people) is well above the average for the West Africa region (18.4 premature deaths It should be noted that most studies using ground-level per 100,000 people).9 measurements collected data for less than three months. However, Nigeria’s climate has pronounced wet and dry Lagos is the commercial and economic hub of Nigeria. seasons, resulting in seasonal variations in ambient PM2.5 It is also one of the world’s fastest growing megacities, concentration due to differences in pollutant dispersion expected to become the largest city by 210010 (Hoornweg and deposition (Petkova et al. 2013). In addition, some and Pope 2016). It generated 25 percent of the country’s studies collected data at the most polluted sites during the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2015, and 70 percent emissions peak time. For example, uMoya Nilu Consult- of the country’s industrial and commercial activities ing (2016) measured PM2.5 concentration for seven days (Owoade et al. 2013; PwC 2015). Fast urbanization and during peak time in a few hotspots in Lagos, showing con- industrialization have exposed the majority of population centrations that range between 2 µg/m3 and 1770 µg/m3. to high levels of air pollution, with negative impacts on While these studies may reflect instances of extreme pol- human lives (Olowoporoku, Longhurst, and Barnes 2012) lution events, data collected for such a limited period and and on changing climatic conditions (Komolafe et al. at the extreme condition do not adequately represent the 2014). The following sections briefly review the available current status of the PM2.5 pollution in Lagos. studies on ambient PM2.5 concentration in Lagos. In addition, Etchie et al. (2018) provided an assessment 1.2. AMBIENT PARTICULATE based on satellite-derived data for Lagos State. However, satellite information at the local level can be reliable only MATTER POLLUTION IN after calibration with ground-level data, which was not LAGOS conducted by the authors. Currently, there are no operational air quality monitor- The above paragraphs suggest that most of the exist- ing stations in Lagos11. Available PM2.5 data are largely ing efforts do not reflect reliably the average based on short-term and irregular measurements, using annual PM2.5 concentration in Lagos. Chapter 2 air samplers (e.g., Gent stack filter unit samplers). Table estimates the average population weighted PM2.5 concen- 1 presents an overview of the most recent data on PM2.5 tration at 68 µg/m3, based on the most recent publication concentrations in Lagos. It includes results of ground- found with long-term monitoring (Ezeh et al. 2018). This level measurements conducted by the Government (e.g. should be considered as a preliminary estimate that Lagos State Environmental Protection Agency, LASEPA) needs to be updated in the future, based on long-term and other entities (e.g. University of Lagos), and satellite- monitoring efforts. 9 See IHME website, https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/. In addition, a recent study indicated Nigeria as the country with the highest increase in the mean annual PM2.5 concentration (above 30 µg/m3) between 1990–2015, after Bangladesh (World Bank 2019). The study compared changes in the mean annual PM2.5 for 42 low- and middle-income countries. 10 Although there are many ways to measure the growth of a city, Hoornweg and Pope (2016) refer to population growth. 11 The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET)-owned air quality monitoring station in Lagos is currently not operational due to power unavailability, poor mainte- nance and lack of human, technical and financial resources to sustain the monitoring program. 2 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos TABLE 1: PM2.5 CONCENTRATION IN LAGOS CITY Mean PM2.5 concentration PM2.5 concentration (μg/ Type of location Name of location (monitored, μg/m3) m3) Author Measurement schedule (c) GROUND-LEVEL MEASUREMENTS Residential C.M.S. Grammar School, Bariga 28 Heavy traffic Amuwo-Odofin Mini Water Works 31 Data collected twice every fortnight during 27 Owoade et al. (2013) February–October 2010, between 7 Marine Law School, Victoria Island 25 am–7 pm. Industrial Oba Akran Road, Ikeja 26 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos High density residential n.a. 35 Obioh et al. (2013) Data collected for one day in each site, Low density residential n.a. 12 during September–October 2009. The 23 sampling time covered 2 hours during Industrial n.a. 30 mornings (6–11 am), afternoons (12–3 Commercial n.a. 14 pm) and evenings (4–9 pm). Industrial Ikeja; Amuwo Odofin; Kirikiri; Ikorodu. 62 M.K.O. Abiola Gardens, Ikeja; Alaka 42 Residential Estate, Surulere; Oloje Street, Matori; Data collected during March – April 2014, VGC, Lekki. 53 LASEPA (2014) two weeks per month. Ojota, Gani Fawehinmi Park; Oshodi; 55 Highways Lekki Toll Gate; Ikorodu Central Junction. Industrial Ikeja 77 Data collected during daytime, two days a High density residential Mushin 85 68 (a) Ezeh et al. (2018) week during December 2010–November Low density residential Ikoyi 41 2011. Transport 69 Fifty two samples collected during Transport sector locations and residential 35 Obanya, Nnamdi September-November 2017. Exposure areas of the Mainland Local 52 Residential and Togunde (2018) duration for sampling was 2 hours per Government Area site. Industrial, commercial, Apapa, Idumota, Odogunyan, Olusosun, Seven-day sampling during peak times for 3 residential, dumpsite, uMoya Nilu Okobaba, Pen Cinema, Nigerian See note (b) See note (b) hours (6–9 am and 4–7 pm) between 11 heavy traffic, high Consulting (2016) Conservation Foundation (NCF) Lekki and 18 December 2015. population density Data collected during November 2018– Communication March 2019, based on continuous Transport University of Lagos (UNILAG) 66 66 with UNILAG (Dr. sampling for 4 days in November, 10 Rose Alani) days in December, 11 days in January, 16 days in February and 6 days in March. SATELLITE DATA Local Government Agege, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Amuwo- 24–32 27 Etchie et al. (2018) Based on satellite data derived from van Authorities of Lagos Odofin, Apapa, Eti-Osa, Ikeja, Lagos Donkelaar et al. 2016 for 2015. Island, Lagos Mainland, Mushin, Oshodi Isolo, Surulele. Notes: (a) The mean PM2.5 concentration is a population-weighted average, based on GIS mapping. (b) The report provided only the minimum and maximum PM2.5 concentrations recorded at each monitoring site, for example: in Apapa, between 16—280 µg/m3 in the mornings; and between 22—274 µg/m3 in the evenings. It does not provide all the recorded observations, which are necessary to calculate a meaningful average. n.a. = not available. (c) If not specified, information on the average time of sampling and timing of the day is not available. 3 FIGURE 1: ANNUAL MEAN CONCENTRATION OF PM2.5 IN DIFFERENT MEGACITIES New York 7 WHO Guideline Los Angeles 12 Kyoto 14 Istanbul 15 Tokyo 17 Mexico City 22 Seoul 26 Shenzhen 27 Bangkok 28 Manila 29 Guangzhou 36 Shanghai 45 Chongqing 54 Wuhan 57 Dhaka 57 Mumbai 64 Lagos 68 Beijing 73 Cairo 76 Karachi 88 Delhi 143 0 30 60 90 120 150 Annual mean concentration of PM2.5 (µg/m3) Sources: Chapter 2 for the concentration in Lagos. WHO 2016 and 2018 for the concentration in the other cities. Despite inherent limitations, this estimate—and all the monitoring include: limited equipment for sustained air other results reported in Table 1—indicate that ambient quality monitoring; inadequate institutional, human and PM2.5 concentration in Lagos exceeds the guideline set by financial capacity; absence of stringent air quality stand- the WHO for the annual mean PM2.5 concentration of ards at the national and state levels; lack of appropriate 10 µg/m3 (WHO 2005)12. Figure 1 presents the average guidelines on air quality monitoring practices; lack of annual PM2.5 concentrations in several megacities over the monitoring enforcement; and limited incentives to address world. The estimated value places Lagos close to the most these problems. To improve the quality of existing PM2.5 polluted megacities in the world e.g., Beijing and Cairo. concentration data, monitoring equipment and long-term monitoring using best practices are highly needed in sev- Overall, available PM2.5 data are based on sparse and eral locations representative for major activities in the city, short-term sampling efforts. Reasons for insufficient e.g. transport, industry, power generation and landfills. 12 WHO also specifies that no threshold has been identified below which no damage to health is observed, and therefore, recommends to aim at achieving the lowest concentration of PM possible (WHO 2005). In addition, the GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators (2018) identify the theoretical minimum risk exposure level between 2.4 µg/m3 and 5.9 µg/m3 for both household and ambi- ent PM. 4 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos CHAPTER 2 THE COST OF AIR POLLUTION IN LAGOS This chapter estimates in monetary terms the impacts of ambient PM2.5 on health in Lagos city. Lagos State covers 20 local government authorities (LGAs), with a population estimated at 25.6 million in 201813. The analysis targets only Lagos city, which covers only 17 LGAs, with 24.4 million people14. As the study was conducted during a short period of time (October 2018—March 2019), it is based only on secondary data. 2.1. COST OF AIR POLLUTION Exposure to ambient PM2.5 is responsible for premature mortality, primarily due to res- piratory and heart diseases; and morbidity, due to problems such as chronic bronchitis, hospital admissions, work loss days, restricted activity days, and acute lower respira- tory infections in children (Hunt et al. 2016; World Bank 2016). We estimate the cost related to these outcomes in four steps, presented below. 1. Select data on the PM2.5 concentration. Based on the overview of the PM2.5 concentration presented in Chapter 1, only two studies provide data monitored over relatively long periods of time: twice every fortnight for nine months, from February to October 2010, by Owoade et al. (2013); and two days a week for one year, from December 2010 to November 2011, by Ezeh et al. (2018). As Ezeh et al. (2018) monitored PM2.5 concentration more frequently over a longer period of time, we use their results to estimate the population-weighted PM2.5 concentration for Lagos city in the following step. 2. Estimate the population-weighted PM2.5 concentration. This is con- ducted by using data on: »» PM2.5 concentration measured at three monitoring stations: Ikeja (77 µg/m3), Mushin (85 µg/m3) and Ikoyi (41 µg/m3) (Table 1). 13 Based on records derived from the 2006 population census and further projections carried out by Lagos Bureau of Statistics. 14 It covers all LGAs except Badagry (555,200 people), Epe (472,300 people) and Ibeju-Lekki (145,300 people). The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 5 »» Proportion of the population exposed to air pollu- We estimate the number of deaths attributable to air pol- tion around each of the above monitoring stations, lution (PM2.5) using data on: (i) mortality19 by disease and estimated by World Bank staff, using Geographic age group, based on the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Information System (GIS)15: Ikeja (18 percent), study (IHME, 2017); (ii) proportion of deaths due to PM2.5 Mushin (46 percent) and Ikoyi (36 percent). calculated by using specific relative risk factors, which are available by disease, age and PM2.5 concentration20. Based on the above, the average population-weighted PM2.5 concentration is estimated at16 68 µg/m3. Consider- The results show that exposure to ambient PM2.5 is respon- ing that most PM2.5 monitoring efforts in Lagos have been sible for about 11,200 premature deaths in 201821. conducted sporadically and over short periods of time, it Lower respiratory infections are the leading cause of is not possible to compare this estimate with a recent long- PM2.5-related mortality; children under five are the most term ground-level measurement. However, it should be affected group, accounting for about 60 percent of total noted that the Department of Chemistry of the Univer- deaths (Figure 2). This result is consistent with the 2017 sity of Lagos started PM2.5 monitoring in November 2018; GBD study at the national level in Nigeria, which found data collected till the time of writing this report (March that children under five account for a similar proportion 2019) show an average PM2.5 concentration of 66 µg/m3 in the total ambient PM2.5-related deaths.22 It is important (Communication with Dr. Rose Alani, Department of to note that under five mortality due to lower respiratory Chemistry, University of Lagos). Although a direct com- infections (all causes combined) in Nigeria is the second parison between the two estimates is difficult—due to the highest in the world (153,100 cases), after India (185,400 difference in the monitoring period and specific locations cases)23. of the measurement—they suggest that the estimated 68 µg/m3 is a reasonable (preliminary) approximation of 4. Estimate the value of health impacts due to the average PM2.5 concentration in Lagos. exposure to PM2.5. We estimate in monetary terms the impacts of PM2.5 on health as follows: 3. Quantify the health impacts of exposure »» The cost of mortality is estimated based on the Val- to PM2.5. Several epidemiological studies revealed ue of Statistical Life (VSL), which reflects people’s strong correlations between long-term exposure to willingness to pay to reduce their risk of death. PM2.5 and premature mortality (Apte et al. 2015; Cohen et al. 2017): ischemic heart disease; stroke17; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; tracheal, 19 Similar to other countries, mortality data by age and disease in Lagos city bronchus and lung cancer; and diabetes mellitus are not readily available. In the absence of these data, the estimation uses type 218; and to lower respiratory infections in all ages national-level information, which are adjusted based on the ratio between the population in Lagos and that at the national level. The base information at the (GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators 2018). national level was derived from IHME database (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/ gbd-results-tool) 20 For more details, see GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators (2018). 15 The estimation was conducted using the GIS, based on the following 21 It should be noted that a portion of this estimate accounts for deaths due method: (i) mapping the monitoring sites, using the coordinates of the locations to the joint effect of exposure to both ambient and household air pollution from GoogleMaps; (ii) spatially join the population value that intersect the loca- (WHO 2018). Adjusting the estimate to capture only the impact of ambient air tion of each site; (iii) calculate the share of population at site versus the total pollution would require the quantification of the number of people exposed population of the city; (iv) derive the population exposed at each site using the to both household and ambient air pollution; in-depth knowledge about the share and population values. causes of household air pollution; and data on household PM2.5 concentration 16 It should be noted that the 2019 State of Global Air report indicates a in the affected areas. As this report did not focus on household air pollution, this population-weighted average of 72 μg/m3 for 2017 in Nigeria (HEI 2019). adjustment was not made. 17 This includes ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid 22 The number of deaths due to ambient PM2.5 in Nigeria was estimated at hemorrhage (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). 49,100 for 2017, of which children under five accounted for 29,900, or 61 per- 18 Evidence suggests that exposure to PM₂.₅ can be linked to type 2 diabetes cent of the total (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). through altered lung function, vascular inflammation, and insulin sensitivity 23 Data refer to 2017, based on IHME, https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd- (Rajagopalan and Brook 2012). compare/. 6 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos FIGURE 2: MORTALITY DUE TO PM2.5 EXPOSURE, BY AGE GROUP 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Deaths 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84 85–89 90–94 95+ 95+ Group of age LRI Lung cancer COPD IHD Stroke Diabetes mellitus type 2 Source: Authors, based on data from IHME (2018) and GBD 2017 Risk factors collaborators (2018) Notes: IHD = ischemic heart disease; LRI = lower respiratory infections; COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. We use a VSL for Nigeria of about24 US$167,400, So far, no commonly accepted method has been devel- based on benefits transfer of a base value from oped to value the overall cost of morbidity due to air a meta-analysis conducted in OECD countries pollution (OECD 2014). However, results of studies con- (World Bank 2016). Accordingly, the cost of mor- ducted in several OECD countries indicate that morbid- tality is estimated at US$1.9 billion. ity costs account for a small percentage of mortality costs »» The cost of morbidity includes resource costs (i.e. (Hunt et al. 2016; Narain and Sall 2016; OECD 2014). financial costs for avoiding or treating pollution- On this basis, OECD proposed a 10 percent markup of associated illnesses), opportunity costs (i.e. indirect mortality cost to account for morbidity (Hunt et al. 2016). costs from the loss of time for work and leisure), Using this assumption also for Lagos, the cost of morbid- and disutility costs (i.e. cost of pain, suffering, or ity is estimated at about US$0.2 billion. discomfort). The literature assessing causal rela- tionships between exposure to PM2.5 and morbidity Based on the above, the cost of mortality and morbidity is much more limited than that for mortality (Hunt due to air pollution from PM2.5 exposure is estimated at et al. 2016). US$2.1 billion, or 0.5 percent of the country’s GDP in 201825. This corresponds to about 1.3 percent of the Lagos State’ GDP in 2018.26 24 Other estimates for the VSL in Nigeria are US$485,000 by Viscusi and 25 This is based on a GDP of US$397.3 billion in Nigeria (current prices, Masterman (2017), and US$489,000 by Yaduma, Kortelainen, and Wossink 2018). (https://data.worldbank.org/ ). (2013). This report uses a different estimate (US$167,400), based on a base 26 Based on a GDP for Lagos State estimated at US$157.7 billion for 2018 value derived from a meta-analysis of values from several OECD countries, by the Lagos Bureau of Statistics (https://lagosstate.gov.ng/about-lagos/, rather than just for one country (United States). accessed in October 2019). The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 7 2.2. DISCUSSION TABLE 2: IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTION IN SELECT COASTAL CITIES OF AFRICA To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study estimat- Deaths Deaths/ PM2.5 ing the health cost of air pollution in Lagos city, based Losses due to air 100,000 (μg/m3) pollution people on ground-level monitored data. Previous studies valuing Dakar 21 270 25 the cost of air pollution in Nigeria are also worth noting. Cotonou 32 200 32 For example, Etchie et al. (2018) estimated the health cost Lomé 32 490 31 of air pollution in all Nigerian states, based on satellite- Abidjan 32 1,500 35 derived PM2.5 data; the result for Lagos State was substan- Lagos 68 11,200 46 tially lower than that of the present study (US$1.1 billion Cairo 76 12,600 73 vs. US$2 billion), primarily due to the use of a lower PM2.5 Sources: Authors for Lagos; World Bank 2019a for Cairo; Croitoru, Miranda and concentration data and a slightly different methodology27. Sarraf (2019) for other cities. A portion of these estimates represents deaths due Yaduma et al. (2013) estimated the economic cost of PM10 to the joint effect of exposure to ambient and household air pollution. pollution at the national level at US$33.5 billion in 2006, using an earlier methodology (Ostro 1994), not compara- of the VSL concept to estimate mortality. Although the ble to that employed in the present study (GBD 2017 Risk concept has been commonly used (Viscusi and Master- Factor Collaborators 2018). man, 2017), its application is still subject to challenges, e.g., (i) in countries where primary surveys have been con- It is interesting to put the results of the present study in ducted, its application often generated a wide variety of a broader regional context. Table 2 presents results of results, depending on the approach used, type of survey, recent studies that estimated the cost of ambient air pol- etc.; (ii) in countries with no primary surveys, the VSL lution in Dakar (Senegal), Cotonou (Benin), Lomé (Togo), has been usually obtained through benefits transfer of a Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire) and Cairo (Egypt) (Croitoru, value from a different country. The latter is the case of the Miranda and Sarraf 2019; World Bank 2018). Among the present study, where the VSL has been obtained through West African cities, air pollution is a particularly pressing benefits transfer of a base value from OECD countries, challenge in Lagos, the city with the highest number of following the guidelines of World Bank (2016). Thus, it PM2.5-related deaths, both in absolute (11,200 deaths) and should be noted that the result is a very conservative esti- relative terms (46 deaths per 100,000 people). It is slightly mate of the VSL, which does not capture the real value lower than in Cairo, which has a higher level of ambient of life. PM2.5 concentration. Overall, this analysis points to the following key messages: Every effort was made to calculate meaningful estimates »» Exposure to ambient PM2.5 has significant of the impact of air pollution, based on reliable informa- health impacts in Lagos, costing society about tion. Nonetheless, the analysis remains subject to some US$2.1 billion, or Naira 631 billion28 in 2018. data and methodological limitations. Data constraints This is a conservative estimate, based on PM2.5 include use of old information on ground-level PM2.5 con- data monitored during 2010–2011; ever since, eco- centration, which refer to 2010–2011; and of estimates nomic development and traffic growth have most of mortality by disease and age from global statistics likely led to increased atmospheric pollution. Even (IHME). Methodological limitations are related to the use though conservative, the estimate is still much high- er than that of other coastal cities in West Africa, 27 The difference between the two estimates is due to: (i) use of ground-level calling for urgent action to improve air quality in PM2.5 measurements in the present study, averaging to 68 µg/m3, compared Lagos. to the use of satellite-derived PM2.5 data, averaging 27 µg/m3 by Etchie et al. (2018); (ii) use of an updated methodology in the present study (based on GBD 2017; see GBD 2017 Risk factor collaborators, 2018), compared to the previous one (based on GBD 2015; see Cohen et al. 2017); (iii) use of different estimates 28 Using an exchange rate of US$1 = Naira 306, reported by the International of the VSL. Monetary Fund for 2018 (data.worldbank.org, accessed October 2019). 8 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos »» Exposure to PM2.5 caused about 11,200 prema- concentration and by adjusting national level ture deaths. Children under five were the most information on mortality by disease and age from affected group, accounting for about 60 percent of IHME statistics. Longer-term monitoring of total deaths. This alarming result is consistent with PM2.5 and better centralization of health the 2017 GBD study, which found that children data at the city level are needed for future under five account for a similar proportion in the refinement of this analysis and for designing total ambient PM2.5-related deaths at the national policies to improve air quality. These are among level in Nigeria. the core objectives of the Lagos PMEH/AQM »» This analysis was conducted by using limited and project, which is direly needed in Nigeria, and relatively old29 available data on ground-level PM2.5 particularly in Lagos. 29 The data used are related to 2010–2011. The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 9 Photo Credit: Richard J Greenman / Alamy Stock Photo CHAPTER 3 SOURCES OF AIR POLLUTION Understanding sources of pollutants and their contribution to air pollution is the first step to design effective strategies for cleaner air. PM is a complex pollutant that consists of primary particles (directly emitted) and secondary particles (formed in the atmosphere from precursors) (Zhang et al. 2017). These particles can be derived from natural (e.g., sea spray and wildfires) and anthropogenic sources (e.g., industrial or agriculture activities and fossil fuel combustion). There are multiple sources of PM2.5 pollution in Lagos. These include road transport (Ibitayo 2012), heavy energy dependence on inefficient diesel and gasoline genera- tors (~50 percent of total energy demand) due to unreliable power supply (Cervigni, Rogers, and Dvorak 2013; Oseni 2016), poor waste management (open dumpsite and illegal burning of waste) (Adegboye 2018), ongoing construction to build infrastructure (Adama 2018) and use of polluting fuel and stoves for household cooking (Ozoh et al. 2018). This chapter summarizes the findings of the available PM2.5 source appor- tionment studies in Lagos, and analyzes the situation of road transport, as a key source of ambient air pollution in the city. 3.1. REVIEW OF SOURCE APPORTIONMENT STUDIES IN LAGOS Only a few studies on PM2.5 source apportionment based on long-term monitoring were found for Lagos. An air quality monitoring study conducted by Lagos Metro- politan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA) used positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis to identify the sources of PM2.5. The results indicated that road transport was the major cause of pollution in the city in 2007: vehicular emissions accounted for 43 percent of total PM, followed by sea salt particles (26 percent) and metallic smelting companies (9 percent) (LAMATA 2008, 2016). Owoade et al. (2013) conducted principal component factor analysis (PCA) based on data collected from February to October in 2010 in four locations. The authors found The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 11 that: vehicular traffic was the major contributor to the a key source of air pollution in Lagos. An analysis of the road PM2.5 concentration in three locations, representative for transport situation is presented below. residential (C.M.S. Grammar School, Bariga), heavy traf- fic (Amuwo-Odofin Mini Water Works) and marine areas 3.2. ROAD TRANSPORT (Law School, Victoria Island); while industry—followed by traffic—was the largest contributor to PM2.5 concen- Lagos has the shortest public transport rail sys- tration in an industrial area (Oba Akran Road, Ikeja). tem of many megacities (Salau 2018). Lagos’ 24 km of rail amounts to only 1.3 km per million people—far less More recently, Ezeh et al. (2018) conducted PMF using than many other megacities (Figure 3). Cairo, the city with PM2.5 data collected from December 2010 to Novem- the next shortest rail length per capita, has 8.2 km/million ber 2011 at three locations representative for low density people30. This large gap indicates limited transportation residential zones (Ikoyi), high density residential zones options in Lagos, forcing most people rely on personal (Mushin) and industrial areas (Ikeja). The authors con- vehicles, state-owned and privately-operated commercial cluded that the major source of PM2.5 pollution in Lagos buses and minibuses, tricycles, and motorcycles for trans- was petroleum oil combustion, accounting for 70 percent portation. Lagos is known as a city of vehicles. A project of the overall PM2.5 mass load; this was explained through to extend Lagos’ rail system was initiated in 2008, but the the cumulative impact of emissions from vehicular traffic completion of construction has been repeatedly delayed and use of petrol-driven electric generators. (Salau 2018). Once the newly built rail system starts ser- vice, it will offer an alternative mass transit option with The methods used in the above studies—PMF and PCA— less exposure to air pollution (Cepeda et al. 2017). are receptor-oriented models that apportion the sources based on observation at the monitoring sites. Compared High vehicle density has caused heavy traffic con- to other receptor-oriented models (e.g., chemical mass gestion and high fuel consumption in Lagos State. balance), these methods do not require prior knowledge The number of vehicles in Lagos has almost quadrupled of the sources and of the source profiles (Hopke 2016). during the last decade, reaching 5 million per day on the A common issue of these approaches is that the resulting road31. Vehicle records in Lagos indicate an average of components or factors may represent mixtures of several about 227 vehicles per kilometer of road per day —con- emission sources rather than independent sources (Viana siderably more than the national average of 11 vehicles et al. 2008). Thus, finding the optimal number of compo- per kilometer of road per day (Zaccheaus 2017). Lagos nents to fit the datasets is key to using these methods for is notable for its perennial high traffic congestion, with source apportionment. Yet, the above publications do not most commuters spending at least three hours in traffic discuss other details on selecting the number of compo- daily32. It was named the worst city for drivers in Africa nents, the goodness of model fits, or uncertainties. Thus, and the third worst in the world, with 60 percent conges- a refined source apportionment study based on long-term tion and an average speed of only 17.2 km/hour33. Poor monitoring data is needed to quantify the contribution of road networks, traffic management, and driving habits, each source to the PM2.5 pollution in Lagos. and the lack of parking facilities exacerbate traffic con- gestion problems (Ukpata and Etika 2012). The level of Overall, these results suggest that road transport, along with industrial emissions and power generation, were the largest contribu- tors to PM2.5 pollution in Lagos during the period considered 30 The boundary of cities in the population study and covered by the rail in the above studies. However, it is important to note that: transportation network can be different. Therefore, this could be used just for (i) road transport accounts for over 90 percent of total con- the purpose of the reference. 31 The vehicles newly registered in Lagos was about 61 percent of total vehicle sumption of petroleum products in Nigeria (IEA 2018); registration in Nigeria, the highest among all other states in the first quarter of (ii) Lagos accounts for more than 90 percent of vehicle 2018 (Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics 2018b). registrations in the country (Nigeria National Bureau of 32 https://landlagos.com/blog/lagos-traffic-a-never-ending-tale/ Statistics 2018b). This suggests that road transport is by itself 33 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2017/09/27/the-worlds-best- and-worst-cities-for-drivers/#77cceddc42e9 12 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos FIGURE 3: THE TOTAL LENGTH OF RAIL-BASED RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM NETWORK PER MILLION PEOPLE IN SELECTED MEGACITIES London Guangzhou New York Seoul Tokyo Beijing Moscow Shanghai Cairo Lagos 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 km / million residents Source: Authors’ calculation based on: total length of rail-based rapid transit system from Metrobits (2012) and population from UN (2018). traffic influences the degree of fuel consumption and the gasoline-operated37, except heavy duty trucks (HDVs) and number of vehicles operating per unit area, thus contrib- buses38. Diesel-powered HDVs can be a major source uting to local pollutant concentration (Gately et al. 2017). of primary PM2.5 emissions, due to significantly higher Lagos State is the largest consumer of petroleum products emission factors for primary PM2.5 than gasoline vehicles. in Nigeria34, accounting for about 31 percent of total die- However, numerous gasoline vehicles and motorcycles are sel and 17 percent of total gasoline use in 2017 (Nigeria also contributing to PM2.5 emissions in Lagos, since they National Bureau of Statistics 2018a)35. are dominant sources of carbonaceous PM and second- ary organic aerosol (Platt et al. 2017). Most vehicles operated in Lagos are believed to have old emission control technologies. Old vehi- Nigeria imports diesel and gasoline fuel with cles can emit significantly more PM and black carbon than high sulfur content. Reduced sulfur content in fuel modern vehicles equipped with more efficient engines combined with advanced emission control technolo- and recent emission control technologies (CAAAC 2006; gies can reduce vehicular PM emissions through several Fiebig et al. 2014; Kholod and Evans 2016). Although the mechanisms: directly reducing sulfate particles, reducing exact profile (e.g., age and emission control technology) secondary particle formation from sulfur dioxide (SO2), of the existing fleets is not known, it is believed that most and allowing installed emission control and catalyst sys- vehicles in Lagos are not equipped with the most updated tem for other PM precursor emissions39 to work properly emission control technologies, as they are more than 15 years old (LAMATA, 2016)36. Most vehicles in Lagos are tional Trade Administration Office of Transportation and Machinery 2015), the current vehicle registration system does not collect data on the age of the 34 Road transportation accounts for 91 percent of total final consumption of registered cars.. petroleum products in Nigeria (IEA, 2018). 37 According to vehicle survey conducted by Cervigni, Rogers, and Dvorak 35 These numbers are substantially higher than those of the second major con- (2013). suming states: Kano, with 7% of national gasoline consumption, and Ogun, 38 Based on the calculation using the World Bank’s Energy Forecasting Frame- with 9% of national diesel consumption. work and Emissions Consensus tool (EFFECT) and the vehicle survey con- 36 Although Nigeria banned the import of passenger cars older than 15 years ducted by Cervigni, Rogers, and Dvorak (2013). (Naré and Kamakaté 2017; United States Department of Commerce Interna- 39 such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) and organic compounds The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 13 (Blumberg, Walsh, and Pera 2003). Even though Nigeria Miller 2018; Naré and Kamakaté 2017). The new clean is one of the largest crude oil producers in West Africa40, fuel and vehicle standards together with the momentum it imports most of its refined petroleum products from in the industrial sector for future domestic supply of clean other countries, such as the United States and European fuels, should reduce the PM2.5 pollution and bring sub- countries. While these countries have long banned the stantial health benefits in Lagos. Reduction of PM pollu- domestic use of high-sulfur (dirty) fuel because of air tion by introducing vehicle emission technology and fuel pollution concerns, many still export it. Currently, the sulfur standards has been reported in several cities includ- maximum allowed sulfur is 3,000 parts per million (ppm) ing London (Ellison, Greaves and Hensher 2013) and Los in imported diesel, and 1,000 ppm in imported gasoline Angeles (Hasheminassab et al. 2014). However, successful (George 2018); these are substantially higher than that in implementation of such standards requires tremendous European Union, of 10 ppm for both products (European efforts and enforcement backed by strong political will, Council 2009). as shown by previous experience41 in Nigeria. Also well- designed programs should be coupled together to incen- Efforts to revise fuel and emissions standards tivize consumers and industrial stakeholders shifting to are underway. In December 2018, the Economic Com- use of clean fuels and vehicles. munity of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission deliberated on the harmonization of fuel and vehicle Overall, road transport, industrial emissions and power standards at a technical workshop co-organized by UNEP. generation are major contributors to air pollution in Participants agreed to set a maximum of 50 ppm sulfur in Lagos. Although a refined source apportionment study is both imported gasoline and diesel starting on 1 January needed to quantify the contribution of each source to the 2020 and a minimum vehicle emission standard of Euro pollution level, road transport stands out as a key source IV/4 or equivalent for all new vehicle registrations (UNEP of PM2.5, primarily due to high vehicle density, use of old 2018). The proposed standards are awaiting endorse- emission technologies, high sulfur content in diesel and ment by ECOWAS ministers in 2019. In addition, there gasoline fuel, and limited transportation options in the is an ongoing project to construct a new refinery near city. The following chapter reviews possible options to Lagos to produce ultralow-sulfur fuel to meet the Euro tackle pollution from major sources in Lagos. V emission specification (De Beaupuy and Wallace 2019; 41 For example, in 2015, Nigeria announced that it would tighten its regulations on vehicle emission technology from the Euro2/II standard, which had been adopted in 2012, to the Euro 3/III standard for light-duty vehicle (Loveday 2011; Naré and Kamakaté 2017). However, it is not clear whether this stan- dard has been implemented. In addition, as part of a United Nations Environ- ment Programme (UNEP) campaign, the country had committed to ban the imports of high-sulfur diesel by July 2017, by lowering the maximum allowed sulfur in imported diesel from 3,000 parts per million (ppm) to 50 ppm (UNEP 2016). The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation NPC announced that it 40 Nigeria produced more than 24 percent of Africa’s crude oil in 2016 (IEA would also cut the sulfur level in gasoline to 300 ppm by October 2018, which is 2018). already overdue, and 150 ppm by October 2019 (Opara 2018). 14 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos Photo Credit: Novarc Images / Alamy Stock Photo Photo Credit: Jordi Clave Garsot / Alamy Stock Photo CHAPTER 4 OPTIONS FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL The previous chapters have indicated that ambient air pollution is very costly to Lagos’ society and that the main sources of PM2.5 emissions originate from road transport, industrial activity, and power generation. This chapter provides an overview of several air pollution control options that could be explored to reduce air pollution in Lagos.42 These options are neither exhaustive43, nor prescriptive; their net benefits or cost-effectiveness to Lagos requires further investigation, which is expected from Lagos PMEH/ AQM project outputs—e.g., source apportionment work, cost-effectiveness analysis and policy modelling. 4.1. ROAD TRANSPORT This section examines several options to reduce air pollution from road transport, based on the experience of other developing countries. It should be noted that a detailed assessment of the current and evolving nature of the vehicle fleet is needed to identify the most suitable options for Nigeria. Moreover, some options can be effective only when implemented simultaneously, e.g., importing low emission vehicles would help reduce air pollution only if coupled with adoption of cleaner fuels. FUEL QUALITY Upstream control of fuel quality can have a rapid impact on associated combustion emissions (Yue et al. 2015). Using fuels with lower sulfur content can contribute to lower PM emissions. Efforts in this area are already underway: the Nigerian Industrial Standard (NIS) for fuels were revised in 2017 for diesel (50 ppm), gasoline (150 ppm), and kerosene (150 ppm). However, these changes are still awaiting Government approval and implementation. 42 Recently, the Government of Nigeria published a report which discusses emissions, sources and impacts of PM2.5 based on an analysis using Long Range Energy Alternative Planning System-Integrated Benefit Calculator (Govern- ment of Nigeria, 2018). 43 For example, this chapter does not touch upon measures to reduce indoor air pollution (such as switching stoves to cleaner fuels and better technology). The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 17 PASSENGER VEHICLES China’s national and local scrappage programs, Mexico’s Federal Road Transport Modernization Cleaner passenger fleet. The majority of cars traded Program, and Chile’s Truck Swapping program in Nigeria are used cars with old emission control tech- (Heger and Sarraf 2018)47. nologies, and some 60 percent of used car sales occur in »» Priority retrofits. Retro-fitting pollution control equi- Lagos (PwC 2016).44 Encouraging the import of lower ment such as Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) emission vehicles (e.g. vehicles with more advanced Euro and Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs) to existing ve- standard emission control technology45) could help reduce hicles can be an effective way to reduce emissions pollution levels if coupled with use of lower sulfur fuel. (Yan, Bond, and Streets 2014). DOCs require a This could be achieved through a variety of methods that maximum of 500-ppm sulfur in diesel, and DPFs influence vehicle purchase choices. For example, in 2011, require a maximum of 50-ppm to function effec- Mauritius introduced a revenue neutral tax structure that tively. As this approach is relatively expensive48, tar- placed a high tax on older, inefficient vehicles, then ear- geting only the most polluting vehicles in the fleet marked those funds to a refund for purchases of newer, is justifiable49. Such a programme should consider more efficient vehicles. While this tax intervention focused the age of the vehicle, the period it will continue to on carbon emissions, a similar scheme could be designed function, and the number of years the devices are to encourage the purchase of vehicles fitting a set of pre- expected to be effective. Several retrofit programs ferred characteristics (e.g. low PM2.5 or NOx emissions). have been implemented in developing countries, such as in Mexico and Chile. The program in Vehicle inspections. While encouraging the import of Santiago de Chile fitted DPFs to over 2000 buses cleaner vehicles is important, improving the performance during 2005–2011, and is expected to fit all buses of existing vehicles in Lagos is also essential for air qual- in the fleet by the end of 2019 (Swiss Agency for ity. Lagos’ Vehicle Inspection Service (VIS)46 is currently Development and Cooperation SDC 2011). undertaking emission tests for vehicles registration and renewals. Inspections of vehicle emission controls, with links to potential scrappage or retrofit programs, could PUBLIC TRANSPORT lead to a cleaner road transport fleet in Lagos. Depend- ing on the emission levels, vehicle technology and age, Shift to public transport. Investing in public trans- and cost-effectiveness criteria, some vehicles should be port—e.g., through a larger fleet, new routes, enhanced scrapped, while others should be repaired: comfort—improves the level of service and encourages »» Scrappage programs. A few countries have successfully increased use (Okokon et al. 2018). Shifting from use of used scrappage programs for heavy duty vehicles single-occupancy vehicle to public transportation can (HDVs) and light duty vehicles (LDVs), including reduce pollutant emissions by decreasing the number 44 In addition, the quality of imported cars is often low (e.g. crashed vehi- cles, flooded vehicles, vehicles with emission controls removed); in that regard, strengthening vehicle inspections and developing African vehicle standards have a role to play. 45 See further information at https://ec.europa.eu/growth/sectors/automo- 47 It should be noted that scrappage programs are sometimes difficult to design tive/environment-protection/emissions_en and implement. A few main issues requiring careful attention include: ensuring 46 The Lagos State Government has established the Lagos Computerized Vehi- that the most polluting vehicles are targeted, that public resources are not spent cle Inspection Service (LACVIS): http://www.lacvis.com.ng. LACVIS conducts for vehicles that would have been scrapped anyway, that vehicle markets are road worthiness tests that assess braking, steering, chassis and chassis alignment, not distorted. emission testing, lightning system, headlights and so on. The test currently uses 48 DOCs cost about US$1,000–2,000 and DFPs as much as US$6,000–10,000. gas analyzers and smoke testers for emission testing—see https://www.lacvis. 49 Replacing older, more polluting vehicles entirely might be more cost-effec- com.ng/quality/our-equipments/, and reports on the website suggest that tive, given the many other benefits of newer vehicles, but may require further approximately 800,000 tests have been conducted at the time of writing. incentives to be financially feasible. 18 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos of vehicle miles traveled per capita50. Such benefits can declining rapidly, electrification of certain captive be further increased by improving logistics51, networks52, fleets54 such as the bus fleet (primarily of high-emission and management53, and by replacing the current diesel- diesel-powered HDVs) and ensuring charging at the most powered buses by more efficient models. The Lagos Bus critical depots may be feasible and cost-effective. In this Rapid Transit (BRT) is a positive initiative in this regard, regard, LAMATA’s initiative on the development of bus as is the support to alternative mass transit modes, such terminals that may ultimately be operated as charging sta- as water taxis and ferries. LAMATA is considering a vari- tions for electrified mass transit modes would be a valu- ety of approaches to encourage transport mode shifts able support. to rail and water under the IFC-funded US$50 million Lagos City Infrastructure project, and as under the proposed World Bank-funded US$300 million Lagos Urban Transport ALTERNATIVE MODES OF TRANSPORT Project III. Non-motorized mode shifts. Improving air quality and safety across the transport network would encour- Cleaner and more efficient vehicles serving public trans- age greater use of non-motorized modes of travel (e.g. port include electrified or compressed natural gas cycling and walking). Investment in infrastructure to (CNG) buses. In this regard, LAMATA has relevant facilitate walking and cycling—principally safe paths and initiatives whereby new terminals are being developed cycle routes—can, however, be expensive and challeng- to support an expansion of the fleet and CNG buses. ing to merge within the existing infrastructure. Similarly, Where initial capital costs are a major barrier to grow- encouraging behavioral and cultural change can take con- ing the fleet, innovative approaches to financing could be siderable time and effort to achieve. explored (Miller et al. 2017). For example, Mexico City issued US$50 million of green bonds in 2017 to fund Ride sharing can help reduce pressure on the road improvements in public transit and expansion of the BRT traffic system, vehicle ownership, and associated emis- system. Other approaches could include leasing buses sions by displacing low-occupancy high-emitting journeys from manufacturers, supported by State level guarantees. (Vanderschuren and Baufeldt 2018). This activity already exists in various forms in Lagos (e.g. Uber, Taxify, Lyft, Electric passenger cars are currently expensive rela- Gokada). This could be further expanded as a way of cur- tive to internal combustion engine vehicles, and require tailing the increasing transport in the city. extensive and reliable charging infrastructure, making a transition to an electrified passenger car fleet a daunt- ing prospect (Figenbaum 2017). In addition, coping with CITY TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT Nigeria’s low power reliability would likely be the big- gest challenge. However, with the cost of electric vehicles Enhanced monitoring and management of traffic, includ- ing licensing restrictions, low emission zones (LEZs), road 50 Even though emission factors of current diesel-powered buses are higher pricing or congestion charging could reduce exposure than those of gasoline-powered cars, public transportation can reduce the need to air pollution. In Beijing, as part of a response to the for many separate trips by private vehicles in dense urban areas, by replacing high levels of air pollution from road transport, there has many separate emissions-producing vehicles with fewer transit vehicles that are been ongoing research and policy development to restrict generally emit less pollution per person (https://www.transit.dot.gov/). 51 Segregated lanes for BRT would allow large numbers of people to be carried urban traffic. One of the earlier initiatives was a high- through crowded areas at constant speeds, thus generating lower PM emissions profile alternating restriction on vehicles entering the city thanks to fewer accelerations. Establishing high occupancy vehicles lanes is also with odd or even number plates during the 2008 Olym- worth exploring. pics. More recently, to constrain the fleet size, the city has 52 Restructuring public transport networks with densified nodes, would allow the same level of access with fewer vehicle kilometers. 53 Public transport vehicles can be managed as a fleet in a more controlled manner than the vehicle stock as a whole. This means that it might be possible 54 A captive fleet is a portion of the overall fleet that is controlled or managed to assure better maintenance of engines and emissions control equipment (and by a given entity. Vehicles within a captive fleet are more readily managed and proper use of low-sulfur fuel) than for the fleet as a whole. controlled. The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 19 capped the total number of cars registered through a lot- research in Africa suggests that solar photovoltaic cells with tery system for vehicle licenses, and has announced restric- a battery storage system can offer a cost-effective alter- tions on the number of visits that cars registered outside native to high polluting diesel-based systems for off-grid Beijing can make55. Other initiatives include the recent energy needs at varying scales (Madziga et al. 2018). In a introduction of a LEZ that prevents HDVs from entering similar vein, Lagos State Government has been investing certain parts of Beijing56. However, while management of in a number of smaller-scale independent power projects. urban traffic has a role to play, addressing the levels of These initiatives aim at providing more stable power to transport activity and growth through non-motorized or key state facilities and communities (e.g. the Island Power public transit support should remain a priority (Kelly and Project Expansion) and should reduce the reliance on the Zhu 2016) . more polluting generators. 4.2. INDUSTRY AND POWER 4.3. OTHER OPTIONS Best Available Technologies (BAT). As indicated in Waste management is an ongoing challenge for Lagos chapter 3, earlier source apportionment work in Lagos State. The Lagos Bureau of Statistics (LBS) and the Lagos recognized locations where industries are key sources State Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) report a of ambient PM2.5. More refined work to identify major reliance on open dumpsites for waste management and industry and power emission sources of relevance (e.g. the existence of illegal burning and dumping59. Inad- cement, steel, power generation, refining, chemicals etc.) equate waste infrastructure can exacerbate air pollution is expected from the Lagos PMEH/AQM project. Based due to the inability to control emissions. This was demon- on that, specific cost-effective targeting of actions will fur- strated when the Olusosun dumpsite in the Ojota area of ther guide identification of BAT actions within these key Lagos caught fire in 201860. A few actions can be explored: industrial sources57. For example, the World Bank’s Second »» Alternative options for advanced waste management Pollution Abatement Project in Egypt (US$20 million) financed that offer potential for greater value recovery than BAT among the most polluting industries in Cairo, which landfills alone (Ayodele, Alao, and Ogunjuyigbe reduced air pollution emissions from targeted industries 2018). The options could include municipal solid by 91 percent during 2006–2015 (World Bank 2015). waste incineration. The first such facility in sub Sa- haran Africa opened in Addis Ababa in 2018 at a Diesel and gasoline generators. Diesel and gasoline cost of over US$110 million61. generators are regular sources of localized air pollution in »» Improving existing waste management practices, through Lagos (World Bank 2014). Several studies related to die- regulation and actions related to packaging and sel generators in Nigeria suggest the need for inspection, sorting (Convery, McDonnell, and Ferreira 2007; maintenance, or upgrade of older generators, to curtail Tencati et al. 2016). In Lagos, Wecyclers and Recy- emissions (e.g. Adeniran et al. 2017). A decommissioning pro- cle Points have partnered with LAWMA to collect gram could also be considered, but adequate and consist- recyclable waste items (e.g. plastic bottles and bags, ent alternative power sources must be available58. Recent cans, paper and carton) directly from consumers, 55 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201806/15/ WS5b236853a310010f8f59d362.html up to power commercial and residential districts. A stable and secure energy 56 www.lez-cc.info/en supply to all residential and commercial operators should facilitate the decom- 57 The parallel work under the Lagos PMEH/AQM project to develop the missioning of ‘backup’ generators over time. Lagos Bureau of Statistics (LBS) data with respect to emissions and abatement 59 LAWMA has reported collection and disposal of approximately 1.7 million technologies from licensed industries within Lagos State will also be important tonnes of waste in Lagos in 2016, of an estimated total waste generated of in subsequently identifying and managing the additional potential for abate- approximately 4.4 million in that same year (http://www.lawma.gov.ng/) ment from these facilities. 60 https://guardian.ng/news/thick-smoke-as-another-fire-at-olusosun-dump- 58 This measure has a clear linkage to broader energy policy and infrastructure site-envelopes-ojota/ in Lagos. The Lagos Independent Power Plants (IPPs) that currently provide 61 https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/ethiopias-waste- energy to government institutions may have a role to play if they can be scaled- energy-plant-first-africa 20 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos providing much needed collection and sorting ser- sions of NH3 and N2O from animal manure can be mini- vices (Jambeck et al. 2018). Extensions of existing mized by using appropriate methods to spread, altering LAWMA initiatives on waste recovery, recycling the timing of spreading, and investing in alternate means and special destruction of hazardous materials are of storing manure. Likewise, emissions from fertilizer use relevant to an integrated pollution management can be minimized through appropriate fertilizers, timing program for Lagos. and methods of application. »» Substantial quantities of waste are believed to be illegally buried 62, burned, or dumped. Addressing these Shipping and freight. Lagos is a major port area; a actions require investment in technologies, teams substantial number of ships use the Apapa and Tin Can for monitoring and penalizing these activities, and ports64. The proximity of so many large vessels and the provision of appropriate waste management infra- associated freight traffic are likely to be relevant sources structure. of air pollution for Lagos, as they are in many port cit- ies around the globe (Fenton 2017). The applicability and City management. Use of good practices can reduce cost-effectiveness for measures such as shore-side electri- the potentially negative impact of construction and main- fication should be explored, as research in Europe has tenance activities on ambient air pollution. Such practices indicated potential for its use (Winkel et al. 2016). Interna- could include: tional fuel standards for shipping, as well as fuel switching »» Construction measures, such as load management on in proximity to port, could also offer public health benefits trucks hauling debris and building materials to pre- (Sofiev et al. 2018). vent overflowing; careful demolition practices for buildings; or increased use of prefabricated materi- Other fiscal and information-led support actions als to reduce cutting on site. can be used to help successful implementations of above »» Road improvements. Roads often have substantial lit- options. Environmental taxes and subsidies can be power- ter, and are often bordered by unpaved sections, ful tools to influence incentives within the market place which can result in particles and pollution being re- (Heine, Norregaard, and Parry 2012). For example, Nige- suspended and made respirable (Eliasson, Jonsson, ria heavily subsidizes imported refined petroleum prod- and Holmer 2008; Kumar and Elumalai 2018). ucts. While the subsidy supports the economy by making Road washing, sweeping and paving would reduce fuel more affordable, increased fossil fuel use also leads this effect. The Cleaner Lagos Initiative is a good to pollution. Finding a balance whereby the subsidy is example of efforts to maintain a visibly clean envi- reduced for the importers and wholesalers, while poorer ronment in the state. households receive targeted supports has been suggested »» Tree planting, while it would not reduce emissions, as an alternative (Siddig et al. 2014) that may deliver bet- could limit particle dispersion by trapping emis- ter environmental and societal outcomes in Nigeria. sions. It has been embraced by the Lagos State Government and undertaken by the Lagos State Information-led actions include: nudges and boosts (i.e. Parks and Gardens Agency in collaboration with tools to stimulate positive behavioral change towards LAWMA. cleaner air), and awareness raising campaigns (e.g. dis- semination of the information related to the Air Quality Agricultural measures. According to LBS, over 12 Index which is under preparation for Lagos). million poultry and 1 million pigs are kept within the state, and many animals are brought in for slaughter63. Emis- Overall, the options identified above include measures that have been successfully implemented in other coun- tries to curtail air pollution. However, the choice of meas- 62 Examples of suspected waste burning issues in Lagos include the burning of animal skins with tires in abattoirs, and the open burning of uncollected waste. 63 Lagos State Ministry of Agriculture reports over 800,000 cattle and over 500,000 sheep and 500,000 goats passing through Lagos’ livestock control posts 64 Nigerian port statistics indicate that over 33 million metric tons of cargo in 2016. passed through these two ports in 2017. The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 21 ures depends on the cost of implementing them and the challenges faced by the city. An evidence-based air pol- associated benefits in terms of reducing air pollution, lution control plan, that considers actions across the most which further depend on the context. It is clear from the polluting sectors is required and envisaged by the Lagos outset that no single action can solve the air pollution PMEH/AQM project. 22 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos REFERENCES Adama, Onyanta. 2018. “Urban Imaginaries: Funding Mega Infrastructure Projects in Lagos, Nigeria.” GeoJournal 83(2): 257–74. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708- 016-9761-8. Adegboye, Kinsley. 2018. “Why Problem of Waste Management Persists in Lagos.” Vanguard. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/10/why-problem-of-waste-man- agement-persists-in-lagos-stakeholders/. Adeniran, Jamiu Adetayo et al. 2017. “Air Quality Impact of Diesel Back-up Genera- tors (BUGs) in Nigeria’s Mobile Telecommunication Base Transceiver Stations (BTS).” Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal 28(5): 723–44. http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/MEQ-09-2015-0168. Apte, Joshua S., Julian D. Marshall, Aaron J. Cohen, and Michael Brauer. 2015. “Addressing Global Mortality from Ambient PM2.5.” Environmental Science and Tech- nology 49(13): 8057–66. Ayodele, T.R., M.A. Alao, and A.S.O Ogunjuyigbe. 2018. “Recyclable Resources from Municipal Solid Waste: Assessment of Its Energy, Economic and Environmental Benefits in Nigeria.” Resources, Conservation and Recycling 134: 165–73. https://www. sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344918301149 (April 13, 2019). De Beaupuy, Francois, and Paul Wallace. 2019. “Nigeria’s $15 Billion Oil Refinery Is on Track, Dangote Says.” Bloomberg. Belis, C A, F Karagulian, B R Larsen, and P K Hopke. 2013. “Critical Review and Meta-Analysis of Ambient Particulate Matter Source Apportionment Using Receptor Models in Europe.” Atmospheric Environment 69: 94–108. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.11.009. Beyene, Hayelom, Adhena Werkneh, and Teklit Gebregiorgis Ambaye. 2018. “Current Updates on Waste to Energy (WtE) Technologies: A Review.” Renewable Energy Focus 24: 1–11. Blumberg, Katherine O., Michael P. Walsh, and Charlotte Pera. 2003. Low-Sulfur Gasoline & Diesel: The Key to Lower Vehicle Emission. Brook, Robert D. et al. 2010. “Particulate Matter Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Dis- ease.” Circulation 121(21): 2331–78. https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/ CIR.0b013e3181dbece1 (January 25, 2019). The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 23 CAAAC. 2006. Recommendations for Reducing Emissions from the Legacy Diesel Fleet. Washington DC, USA. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-10/ documents/caaac-apr06.pdf. Cepeda, Magda et al. 2017. “Levels of Ambient Air Pollution According to Mode of Transport: A Systematic Review.” The Lancet Public Health 2(1): e23–34. https:// doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(16)30021-4. Cervigni, Raffaello, John Allen Rogers, and Irina Dvorak. 2013. Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors. Washington DC, USA. Cohen, Aaron J et al. 2005. “The Global Burden of Disease Due to Outdoor Air Pollution.” Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A 68(13–14): 1301–7. https://doi.org/10.1080/15287390590936166. ———. 2017. “Estimates and 25-Year Trends of the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: An Analysis of Data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015.” The Lancet 389(10082): 1907–18. https://doi. org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6. Convery, Frank, Simon McDonnell, and Susana Ferreira. 2007. “The Most Popular Tax in Europe? Lessons from the Irish Plastic Bags Levy.” Environmental & Resource Economics 38: 1–11. Croitoru, Lelia, Juan José Miranda and Maria Sarraf. 2019. The Cost of Coastal Zone Degradation in West Africa: Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Togo. Financed by WACA Program. van Donkelaar, Aaron et al. 2016. “Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter Using a Combined Geophysical-Statistical Method with Information from Satellites, Models, and Monitors.” Environmental Science & Technology 50(7): 3762–72. Eliasson, I, P Jonsson, and B Holmer. 2008. “Diurnal and Intra-Urban Particle Con- centrations in Relation to Windspeed and Stability during the Dry Season in Three African Cities.” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 154(1): 309. https:// doi.org/10.1007/s10661-008-0399-y. Ellison, Richard B., Stephen P. Greaves, and David A. Hensher. 2013. “Five Years of London’s Low Emission Zone: Effects on Vehicle Fleet Composition and Air Quality.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 23: 25–33. https:// www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091300059X (January 25, 2019). Etchie, Tunde O. et al. 2018. “The Gains in Life Expectancy by Ambient PM2.5 Pol- lution Reductions in Localities in Nigeria.” Environmental Pollution 236: 146–57. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749117313052 (Janu- ary 21, 2019). European Council. 2009. Directive 2009/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council. Ezeh, Godwin Chigaekwu et al. 2018. “Airborne Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) at Industrial, High- and Low-Density Residential Sites in a Nigerian Megacity.” Toxicological & Environmental Chemistry 100(2): 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1080/0277 2248.2018.1485924. Fenton, Paul. 2017. “The Role of Port Cities and Transnational Municipal Networks in Efforts to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Land and at Sea from Shipping— An Assessment of the World Ports Climate Initiative.” Marine Policy 75: 271–77. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X15003826 (April 13, 2019). Fiebig, Michael, Andreas Wiartalla, Bastian Holderbaum, and Sebastian Kiesow. 2014. “Particulate Emissions from Diesel Engines: Correlation between Engine Technology and Emissions.” Journal of occupational medicine and toxicology 9(1): 6. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24606725. Folberth, Gerd A., Timothy M. Butler, William J. Collins, and Steven T. Rumbold. 2015. “Megacities and Climate Change—A Brief Overview.” Environmental Pollution 203: 235–42. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0269749114003844 (January 21, 2019). Gately, C.K., L.R. Hutyra, Scott Peterson, and I.S. Wing. 2017. “Urban Emissions Hotspots: Quantifying Vehicle Congestion and Air Pollution Using Mobile Phone GPS Data.” Environmental Pollution 229: 496–504. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators. 2018. “Global, Regional, and National Com- parative Risk Assessment of 84 Behavioural, Environmental and Occupational, and Metabolic Risks or Clusters of Risks for 195 Countries and Territories, 1990– 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Stu.” The Lancet 392(10159): 1923–94. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30496105 (Janu- ary 25, 2019). George, Libby. 2018. “Nigeria to Cut Sulfur in Fuels a Year after U.N. Deadline.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-fuels-sulphur/nigeria-to-cut- sulfur-in-fuels-a-year-after-u-n-deadline-idUSKCN1GP1HQ. Government of Nigeria. 2018. “Nigeria’s National Action Plan to reduce Short- Live Climate Pollutants.” https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/resources/nigeria’s- national-action-plan-reduce-short-lived-climate-pollutants Gurjar, B.R., T.M. Butler, M.G. Lawrence, and J. Lelieveld. 2008. “Evaluation of Emissions and Air Quality in Megacities.” Atmospheric Environment 42(7): 1593– 1606. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231007009697 (April 14, 2019). Hasheminassab, Sina, Nancy Daher, Bart D. Ostro, and Constantinos Sioutas. 2014. “Long-Term Source Apportionment of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in the Los Angeles Basin: A Focus on Emissions Reduction from Vehicular Sources.” Environmental Pollution 193: 54–64. https://www.sciencedirect.com/sci- ence/article/pii/S0269749114002449 (January 25, 2019). Health Effects Institute. 2019. “State of Global Air 2019. Special Report.” Boston, MA: Health Effects Institute. Heine, Dirk, John Norregaard, and Ian W.H. Parry. 2012. IMF Working Papers Environmental Tax Reform : Principles from Theory and Practice to Date. Hoornweg, Daniel, and Kevin Pope. 2016. “Population Predictions for the World’s Largest Cities in the 21st Century.” Environment and Urbanization 29(1): 195–216. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247816663557. Hopke, Philip K. 2016. “Review of Receptor Modeling Methods for Source Appor- tionment Review of Receptor Modeling Methods for Source Apportionment.” 2247. The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 25 Hunt, Alistair, Julia Ferguson, Fintan Hurley, and Alison Searl. 2016. OECD Environ- ment Working Papers Social Costs of Morbidity Impacts of Air Pollution. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/paper/5jm55j7cq0lv-en. Ibitayo, Olurominiyi O. 2012. “Towards Effective Urban Transportation System in Lagos, Nigeria: Commuters’ Opinions and Experiences.” Transport Policy 24: 141– 47. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X12001308 (April 5, 2019). IEA. 2018. World Energy Balances, 2018 Edition. International Energy Agency. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). 2017. “Global Burden of Disease (GBD).” http://www.healthdata.org/gbd (January 25, 2019). Jambeck, Jenna et al. 2018. “Challenges and Emerging Solutions to the Land-Based Plastic Waste Issue in Africa.” Marine Policy 96: 256–63. https://www.sciencedi- rect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X17305286 (April 14, 2019). Kelly, Frank J, and Tong Zhu. 2016. “Transport Solutions for Cleaner Air.” Science 352(6288): 934 LP-936. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6288/934. abstract. Kholod, Nazar, and Meredydd Evans. 2016. “Reducing Black Carbon Emissions from Diesel Vehicles in Russia: An Assessment and Policy Recommendations.” Environmental Science & Policy 56: 1–8. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article/pii/S1462901115301003 (January 25, 2019). Komolafe, Akinola A. et al. 2014. “Air Pollution and Climate Change in Lagos, Nigeria: Needs for Proactive Approaches to Risk Management and Adaptation.” American Journal of Environmental Sciences 10(4): 412–23. Kumar, Anil, and Suresh Pandian Elumalai. 2018. “Influence of Road Paving on Particulate Matter Emission and Fingerprinting of Elements of Road Dust.” Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology 75(3): 424–35. https://doi. org/10.1007/s00244-018-0546-6. LAMATA. 2008. Lagos Vehicular Emission (Air Quality) Monitoring Study. ———. 2016. Data Gathering to Implement GHG Emissions Reduction Assessment Methodology for LUTP II BRT Corridors. LASEPA. 2014. Air Pollution and Particulate Matter. Study Results. Loveday, Eric. 2011. “Nigeria Bans Two-Stroke Engines, Adopts Euro II Emissions Standards from 1996.” Autoblog. https://www.autoblog.com/2011/08/31/nige- ria-bans-two-stroke-engines-euro-ii-emissions-standards/. Madziga, Miriam et al. 2018. “Comparison between Three Off-Grid Hybrid Systems (Solar Photovoltaic, Diesel Generator and Battery Storage System) for Electrifica- tion for Gwakwani Village, South Africa.” Environments 5(5): 57. http://www.mdpi. com/2076-3298/5/5/57 (April 14, 2019). Mage, David et al. 1996. “Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World.” Atmospheric Environment 30(5): 681–86. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/1352231095002197 (January 21, 2019). Miller, Joshua, Ray Minjares, Tim Dallmann, and Lingzhi Jin. 2017. Financing the Transition to Soot-Free Urban Bus Fleets in 20 Megacities. Miller, Paul. 2018. “New World-Scale Dangote Refinery in Nigeria Will Boast Advanced Technology for Feedstock and Product Flexibility and Environmentally Responsible Operations.” ARC Advisory Group. https://www.arcweb.com/blog/ 26 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos new-world-scale-dangote-refinery-nigeria-will-boast-advanced-technology-feed- stock-product. Narain, Urvashi, and Chris Sall. 2016. World Bank Group Methodology for Valuing the Health Impacts of Air Pollution  : Discussion of Challenges and Proposed Solutions. Washington, DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24440. Naré, Hyacinthe, and Fanta Kamakaté. 2017. “Developing a Roadmap for the Adoption of Clean Fuel and Vehicle Standards in Southern and Western Africa.” International Council on Clean Transportation. Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics. 2018a. “Petroleum Products Imports and Con- sumption 2017.” http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ (December 11, 2018). ———. 2018b. Road Transport Data. Obanya, Henry E, H Nnamdi, and Olusola Togunde. 2018. “Air Pollution Monitor- ing Around Residential and Transportation Sector Locations in Lagos Mainland.” Journal of Health & Pollution 8(19): 1–10. Obioh, I. B. et al. 2013. “Atmospheric Particulate Matter in Nigerian Megacities.” Toxicological and Environmental Chemistry 95(3): 379–85. OECD. 2014. The Cost of Air Pollution: Health Impacts of Road Transport. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/the-cost-of-air- pollution_9789264210448-en (January 25, 2019). OECD Development Centre. 2016. The Cost of Air Pollution in Africa. http://www. oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=DEV/DOC/ WKP(2016)5&docLanguage=En. Oketola, A.A., and O. Osibanjo. 2007. “Estimating Sectoral Pollution Load in Lagos by Industrial Pollution Projection System (IPPS).” Science of The Total Environment 377(2–3): 125–41. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S0048969707000083 (October 23, 2018). Okokon, Enembe O. et al. 2018. “Particulate Air Pollution and Noise: Assessing Com- muter Exposure in Africa’s Most Populous City.” Journal of Transport & Health 9: 150– 60. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517306369 (November 14, 2018). Olowoporoku, A. O., J. W S Longhurst, and J. H. Barnes. 2012. “Framing Air Pollution as a Major Health Risk in Lagos, Nigeria.” WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment 157(Figure 1): 479–88. Opara, Stanley. 2018. “Nigeria Now Haven for ‘Dirty Fuels’ As Regulations Fail.” The Guardian. https://guardian.ng/energy/nigeria-now-haven-for-dirty-fuels-as- regulations-fail/. Oseni, Musiliu O. 2016. “Get Rid of It: To What Extent Might Improved Reliability Reduce Self-Generation in Nigeria?” Energy Policy 93: 246–54. https://www.scien- cedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151630115X (April 5, 2019). Ostro, Bart. 1994. World Bank Estimating the Health Effects of Air Pollutants : A Method with an Application to Jakarta (English). Washington, DC. Owoade, Oyediran K. et al. 2013. “Characterization and Source Identification of Air- borne Particulate Loadings at Receptor Site-Classes of Lagos Mega-City, Nige- ria.” Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 63(9): 1026–35. The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 27 Ozoh, Obianuju B. et al. 2018. “Cooking Fuels in Lagos, Nigeria: Factors Associated with Household Choice of Kerosene or Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15(4): 1–13. Petkova, Elisaveta P., Darby W. Jack, Nicole H. Volavka-Close, and Patrick L. Kinney. 2013. “Particulate Matter Pollution in African Cities.” Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health 6(3): 603–14. Platt, S M et al. 2017. “Gasoline Cars Produce More Carbonaceous Particulate Matter than Modern Filter-Equipped Diesel Cars.” Scientific Reports 7(1): 4926. https:// doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03714-9. PwC. 2015. Lagos: City of Opportunities : An Investor’s Guide. https://www.lagosglobal.org/ wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Lagos-Investors-Guide.pdf (January 25, 2019). ———. 2016. Africa’s Next Automotive Hub. https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/assets/pdf/ africas-next-automotive-hub.pdf. Rajagopalan, Sanjay, and Robert D Brook. 2012. “Air Pollution and Type 2 Diabetes.” Diabetes 61(12): 3037 LP-3045. http://diabetes.diabetesjournals.org/ content/61/12/3037.abstract. Salau, Gbenga. 2018. “A Decade after, Lagos Rail Project Still Crawling.” The Guardian. https://guardian.ng/saturday-magazine/cover/a-decade-after-lagos-rail-project- still-crawling/. Siddig, Khalid et al. 2014. “Impacts of Removing Fuel Import Subsidies in Nigeria on Poverty.” Energy Policy 69: 165–78. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article/pii/S0301421514000950. Sofiev, Mikhail et al. 2018. “Cleaner Fuels for Ships Provide Public Health Benefits with Climate Tradeoffs.” Nature Communications 9(1): 406. https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41467-017-02774-9. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC. 2011. The Santiago de Chile Diesel Particle Filter Program for Buses of Public Urban Transport. https://www.vert-dpf. eu/j3/.../Report_on_the_Santiago_de_Chile_DPF_Program.pdf. Tencati, Antonio et al. 2016. “Prevention Policies Addressing Packaging and Packag- ing Waste: Some Emerging Trends.” Waste Management 56: 35–45. https://www. sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0956053X16303300?via%3Dihub (April 14, 2019). Ukpata, Joseph O, and Anderson A Etika. 2012. “Traffic Congestion in Major Cities of Nigeria.” International Journal of Engineering and Technology 2(8): 1433–38. uMoya Nilu Consulting. 2016. Fact-Finding Air Quality Monitoring Mission Report. Lagos. December 11–18, 2015. Lagos. UNEP. 2016. “West African Countries Adopt Low Sulphur Diesel Standards.” UN Environment. ———. 2018. “Cleaner Fuels and Vehicle Emission Standards Proposed for West Africa.” UN Environment. https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/ story/cleaner-fuels-and-vehicle-emission-standards-proposed-west-africa. United States Department of Commerce International Trade Administration Office of Transportation and Machinery. 2015. Compilation of Foreign Motor Vehicle Import Requirements. Vanderschuren, Marianne, and Jennifer Baufeldt. 2018. “Ride-Sharing: A Poten- tial Means to Increase the Quality and Availability of Motorised Trips While 28 The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos Discouraging Private Motor Ownership in Developing Cities?” Research in Trans- portation Economics 69: 607–14. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ abs/pii/S073988591730210X (April 14, 2019). Viana, M. et al. 2008. “Source Apportionment of Particulate Matter in Europe: A Review of Methods and Results.” Journal of Aerosol Science 39(10): 827–49. https:// www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021850208001018 (October 24, 2018). Viscusi, W. Kip, and Clayton J. Masterman. 2017. “Income Elasticities and Global Values of a Statistical Life.” Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 8(2): 226–50. https:// www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2194588817000124/type/jour- nal_article (January 25, 2019). WHO. 2005. WHO Air Quality Guidelines for Particulate Matter, Ozone, Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulfur Dioxide: Global Update 2005. https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/han- dle/10665/69477/WHO_SDE_PHE_OEH_06.02_eng.pdf;jsessionid=462128 A25F94E9E575FE29D1E05262EF?sequence=1. ———. 2018. Air Pollution and Child Health: Prescribing Clean Air. Geneva, Switzerland. https://www.who.int/ceh/publications/air-pollution-child-health/en/. Winkel, R. et al. 2016. “Shore Side Electricity in Europe: Potential and Environmen- tal Benefits.” Energy Policy 88: 584–93. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article/pii/S0301421515300240 (April 14, 2019). World Bank. 2014. Diesel Power Generation : Inventories and Black Carbon Emissions in Nigeria. Washington DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28419. ———. 2015. Second Pollution Abatement Project in Egypt, Arab Republic of: Implementation Completion and Result Report. ———. 2019. Nothing Normal About Bad Air: Economic Growth and Air Pollution in India. Washington DC, USA. ———. 2019a. Arab Republic of Egypt. Air and Water: An Economic Assessment. Yaduma, Natina, Mika Kortelainen, and Ada Wossink. 2013. “Estimating Mortality and Economic Costs of Particulate Air Pollution in Developing Countries: The Case of Nigeria.” Environmental and Resource Economics 54(3): 361–87. Yan, Fang, Tami C Bond, and David G Streets. 2014. “Effectiveness of Mitiga- tion Measures in Reducing Future Primary Particulate Matter Emissions from On-Road Vehicle Exhaust.” Environmental Science & Technology 48(24): 14455–63. https://doi.org/10.1021/es503197f. Yue, Xin et al. 2015. “Fuel Quality Management versus Vehicle Emission Control in China, Status Quo and Future Perspectives.” Energy Policy 79: 87–98. https:// www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515000105?via%3Dihub (April 14, 2019). Zaccheaus, Bimpe. 2017. “Lagos and Motor Vehicle Administration.” Lagos State Government. https://lagosstate.gov.ng/blog/2017/07/05/lagos-and-motor- vehicle-administration/ (November 30, 2018). Zhang, Yanjun et al. 2017. “Science of the Total Environment Review of Receptor- Based Source Apportionment Research of Fi Ne Particulate Matter and Its Challenges in China.” Science of the Total Environment 586: 917–29. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.071. The Cost of Air Pollution in Lagos 29