Issue # 2 – November 2013 insightsinDRM A Practitioner’s Perspective on Disaster Risk Management in Latin America & the Caribbean Seismic Risk Assessment in Costa Rica: 82614 Building Capacity in the Water & Sanitation Sector “Recurrent seismic events are one of the most important The CAPRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) Program is an initiative that challenges in Costa Rica, which prompted AyA to reach out aims to strengthen institutional capacity in disaster risk assessment, to international development institutions to strengthen with the ultimate goal of integrating disaster risk information into its capacity to manage these natural events. Thanks to development policies and programs. Government institutions and other agencies partner with the World Bank to address specific development the technical assistance project with the World Bank, AyA challenges and meet disaster risk information needs through hands- now has now a clear vision of the possible responses and on practical training and complementary advisory services through damages that can affect the studied infrastructure and the client-driven Technical Assistance Projects (TAP). The CAPRA Program offers a modular and free software platform to support clients water and sanitation systems.” in assessing disaster risk.  — Luis Carlos Vargas Director of the Costa Rican Water and Sanitation Institute (AyA) Intervention In 2010, AyA initiated a dialogue with the World Bank Disaster Risk Management team of the Latin American Region (LCR DRM) to Challenge develop a strategy to strengthen technical and institutional capac- Costa Rica is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the World1 ities and knowledge on seismic risk assessment across the agency. due to the tectonic interaction of the Cocos and Caribbean plates. Through the CAPRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) Program, the Earthquakes, and other natural hazards, place major stress on the AyA and the LCR DRM team designed and implemented a technical country’s population, infrastructure and economy, and often result in assistance project (TAP) that aimed to meet the needs of Costa the disruption of basic services. In response to this, the Government of Rica’s WSS sector. Costa Rica is continuously working to build the capacity of technicians to design effective disaster risk management policies and investments to During the two-year TAP, AyA reduce seismic risk. worked with the LCR DRM team to develop and implement Water supply and sanitation (WSS) infrastructure is one of the most a hands-on practical training critical assets for municipalities to protect in order to ensure delivery program, including tailored of these services in the aftermath of a natural hazard, particularly after workshops, software training, seismic events. Given this reality, the Costa Rican Water and Sanitation and complimentary technical Institute (AyA) is currently seeking to identify the most critical assistance, and estimated seismic components of the WSS networks (e.g. tanks, pipelines, etc.) that are risk assessments for the WSS networks in the metropolitan areas of vulnerable to seismic hazard. Instead of hiring external consultants, Greater San Jose, San Isidro and Higuito, which together serve more which can limit knowledge transfer, AyA aims to assume an integral than 2.7 million people. The TAP approach in Costa Rica generated role in the risk assessment process so that its practitioners improve a greater impact by developing a close-knit relationship during their capacity to estimate seismic risk and integrate that information each step of the process, allowing technical counterparts at AyA into their infrastructure development programs. The objective is to deepen their understanding of risk and acquire technical skills to to better understand potential damages and losses, determine replicate probabilistic risk assessment in the future. The TAP provided investment priorities related to retrofitting infrastructure, emergency an opportunity for AyA to lead the seismic risk assessment process preparedness, and other risk reduction measures. (See image 1) for the WSS infrastructure and take ownership of the results. AyA’s commitment and motivation throughout the process To comprehensively address di- was also an essential ingredient to successfully implement the TAP. saster risk management in Costa Rica, the main challenge identi- Throughout the risk assessment process in the WSS networks, the LCR fied by the government is to im- DRM team collaborated with AyA to build knowledge and skills, as prove knowledge and strengthen described below: the capacity of its institutions like AyA to perform seismic risk assessments, analyze results, and Hazard Assessment better understand, generate and apply disaster risk information in u Collected existing national earthquake hazard data and defined decision-making. parameters for probabilistic modeling that included: (a) Definition and characterization of the main seismogenic www.worldbank.org/lcrdrm/insights sources; insightsinDRM A Practitioner’s Perspective on Disaster Risk Management in Latin America & the Caribbean Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk 100 90 80 70 f = % de daño 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Aceleración (cm/s2) Probabilistic Risk Mampostería simple 1 piso Mampostería simple 2 pisos Mampostería reforzada 2 pisos Hazard Assessment Exposure Analysis Fuente: ERN-AL, 2008. Vulnerability Assessment Muros en concreto reforzado Pórticos en concreto reforzado Evaluates the possible nature, Characterizes assets such as Analyses how susceptible assets are Assessment location, behavior and likelihood of infrastructure systems and buildings to hazards based on their physical Estimates possible damages and hazard events. that can be adversely affected by characteristics. losses to assets due to hazards and hazards. their likelihood of occurrence, based on probability distributions over a finite period of time. Image 1: The three disaster risk factors (hazard, exposure, vulnerability), and the corresponding risk assessment component. (b) Parameterization seismic sources based on seismic history and ongoing efforts of the Government of Costa Rica to understand previous studies; and address seismic risk. The TAP approach, in partnership with the (c) Generation stochastic seismic scenarios for each source; World Bank, creates an environment in which the government and (d) Selection of attenuation model for ground motion organizations interested in disaster risk information, gain ownership parameters; of the risk assessment. This is key to establish a technical foundation (e) Generation of 29,000 earthquake scenarios; and and lasting relationship to improve risk reduction programs and (f) Estimation of ground motion parameters, such as peak design strategies to protect and maintain basic service delivery if an ground acceleration (PGA); earthquake occurs. u Developed a data layer using previous microzoning studies2,3 to determine potential amplification of seismic waves. Through the TAP, AyA gained capacity to perform probabilistic seismic risk assessments for the WSS networks. The risk assessments Exposure Analysis provide AyA’s technical team with critical information about the u Collected, identified and categorized asset inventory of WSS most vulnerable assets and areas that may concentrate higher components (e.g. tanks, pumping stations, treatment plants, economic losses, which will inform decisions about infrastructure wells and pipelines) that are exposed to earthquakes, according investments and emergency preparedness. Mr. Vargas shared that to physical characteristics that are relevant to seismic vulnerability. these assessments are already bringing clarity to develop responses This required merging and standardizing existing databases of the to earthquakes in order to avoid disruptions in water and sanitation three selected municipalities, and conducting on-site surveys of services. In addition, the assessment contains a cost-benefit analysis critical WSS infrastructure4. that examines possible mitigation scenarios to design a preliminary Vulnerability Assessment risk reduction investment strategy for AyA. Moving forward, future activities include adjusting the vulnerability functions to the context u Defined the vulnerability function for each component, by of Costa Rica and conducting a functional vulnerability assessment leveraging current research of the HAZUS Program on fragility of the three WSS networks, including San Jose. The Costa Rica TAP curves5. Vulnerability functions express the relationship between now serves as a capacity-building model for the WSS sector that can the intensity of possible seismic events and the expected be replicated in Costa Rica and other countries of the Latin America percentage of damage to that component. region, as well as for other natural hazards. Risk Analysis u Estimated the seismic risk of exposed assets in terms of damage ratios and losses (based on replacement costs) for all modeled Endnotes scenarios, and calculated average annual losses (AAL) and 1 Disaster Risk Management in Latin American and the Caribbean: GFDRR Country Notes – Costa Rica, 2010. probable maximum loss (PML) of AyA’s asset portfolio. 2 “Microzonificación sísmica de San José, Costa Rica”. 2005. Víctor Schmidt u Identified the most critical hazard scenarios that could severely et al. 1a. edición, San José, C.R. Editorial de la Universidad de Costa Rica. impact the WSS infrastructure. 3 “Estudio de pérdida máxima probable por sismo para la cartera del Instituto Nacional de Seguros de Costa Rica”. 2006. Outcome 4 These components were categorized according to guidelines of the HAZUS The CAPRA Program demonstrates a unique solution to improve the Program of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and knowledge and technical capacity of institutions to integrate disaster the American Lifeline Alliance (ALA). risk information in development policies and programs. Through the 5 “Relaciones entre Curvas de Fragilidad, Matrices de Probabilidad y Funciones WSS TAP, AyA and the LCR DRM team built a relationship that is helping de Vulnerabilidad.” 2008. Mario Ordaz. Contacts: Fernando Ramírez, Sr. DRM Specialist, Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development, Latin America and the Caribbean (framirezcortes@worldbank.org) Juan Carlos Lam, DRM Specialist, Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development, Latin America and the Caribbean (jlam1@worldbank.org)