The World Bank Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) REPORT NO.: RES31673 DOCUMENT OF THE WORLD BANK RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF CENTRAL ASIA HYDROMETEOROLOGY MODERNIZATION PROJECT APPROVED ON MAY 26, 2011 TO MINISTRY OF FINANCE,EC-IFAS REGIONAL CENTER FOR HYDROLOGY (RCH) SOCIAL, URBAN, RURAL AND RESILIENCE GLOBAL PRACTICE EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Regional Vice President: Cyril E Muller Country Director: Lilia Burunciuc Senior Global Practice Director: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Practice Manager/Manager: David N. Sislen Task Team Leader: Daniel Werner Kull The World Bank Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) I. BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P120788 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 26-May-2011 30-Jun-2018 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Ministry of Finance,EC-IFAS Regional Center for Hydrology Tajikhydromet,Kyrgyzhydromet (RCH) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objective of the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) is to improve the accuracy and timeliness of hydromet services in Central Asia, with particular focus on Kyrgyz Republic and Republic of Tajikistan. Summary Status of Financing Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-49340 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 30-Jun-2018 5.10 4.24 .46 IDA-H6770 26-May-2011 12-Jul-2011 12-Jan-2012 30-Jun-2018 8.70 7.27 .73 IDA-H6780 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 30-Jun-2018 .90 .77 .10 IDA-H6790 26-May-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 30-Jun-2018 6.00 5.55 0 TF-99848 13-Jul-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 30-Jun-2018 7.00 6.85 .15 The World Bank Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No II. SUMMARY OF PROJECT STATUS AND PROPOSED CHANGES The Project has made firm progress towards achievement of the PDO, with implementation consistently satisfactory since June 2016. As of March 9, 2018, 93.7% (US$24.48 million) of the original credit/grant amount has been disbursed. The project has achieved all three PDO targets in the Kyrgyz Republic (Component B), namely improved timeliness of weather forecasts and increased accuracy of river and weather forecasting. Tajikistan (Component C) has achieved the PDO target on improved timeliness of forecasts, and has significantly increased weather and river forecast accuracy over the past few years, although not yet fully achieving these PDO targets. Nine of eleven intermediate results targets have been achieved, including establishing a platform for regional integration and improving regional access to mid-resolution numerical weather prediction. Component A (regional) has played a key role in enhancing collaboration, information sharing and capacity building among KazHydromet, KyrgyzHydromet, TajikHydromet and UzHydromet, highlighted by the current operationalization of regional numerical weather prediction and a distance learning system with nodes in all 4 countries. Through joint capacity building such as forecaster training, technical staff have developed operational relationships for collaboration, mutual support and recognition of the regional and national benefits of data sharing. The Project has also provided a management-level platform for the countries to closely collaborate, build consensus on forward- looking enhancements and agree the aspects of weather/climate and hydrological information services that need to be managed with a regional dimension. KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet have been strengthened and made more sustainable, while also digitally archiving large volumes of historical data, which is critical for climate assessment. Mindsets and perceptions have gradually shifted from a traditional government scientific agency approach focusing on technical activities, to a more user- oriented service provider approach, increasingly focusing on understanding and meeting user information needs. Promoting this cultural shift, the Project has supported activities such as preparation and subsequent approval of business development plans for KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet, which have further improved the potential for sustainability. In both cases, the statuses and budgets of these agencies have increased during project implementation, indicating improved recognition by government, in response to improved performance. In addition, KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are now able to contribute more information and expertise to regional efforts, for example leading the identification of regional capacity building needs for certain themes under the Bank’s Strengthening Early Warning of Mountain Hazards in Central Asia (P158373) technical assistance project. While Project implementation is progressing well, CAHMP currently runs the risk of not being able to implement all activities planned under the initial financing, specifically operationalization of high resolution regional numerical weather prediction and modernization of national observation networks, primarily due to losses caused by fluctuation of the exchange rate between USD and SDR (losses of approximately US$1.78 million: US$780,000 for Component A, US$480,000 for Component B, and US$520,000 for Component C). As completion of these activities is critical to achieving the planned improvements in weather and river forecasting quality and delivery, additional financing of US$11.5 million is being pursued (Component A: US$3.5 million, Component B: US$5 million, Component C: US$3 The World Bank Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) million). The proposed additional financing will also provide an opportunity to scale-up successful activities and introduce new activities to increase Project impact. The tentative Board date for additional financing is April 30, 2018, but will likely be delayed to late May to ensure sufficient time for negotiation preparations. The current project closes on June 30, 2018. The requested extension until 31 December 2018 will keep the Project active while the additional financing is being prepared, approved and signed. The proposed extension would be the 2nd extension of the Project for a cumulative total exceeding 24- months. There are no overdue audit reports. III. DETAILED CHANGES LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IDA-49340 Effective 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Apr-2019 IDA-H6770 Effective 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Apr-2019 IDA-H6780 Effective 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Apr-2019 IDA-H6790 Effective 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Apr-2019 TF-99848 Effective 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Apr-2019