Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004622 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT TF017862 ON A SMALL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF USD2.5 MILLION TO THE Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic FOR KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) June 3, 2019 Poverty And Equity Global Practice Europe And Central Asia Region Regional Vice President: Cyril E Muller Country Director: Lilia Burunciuc Senior Global Practice Director: Carolina Sanchez Practice Manager: Carlos Silva-Jauregui Task Team Leader(s): Saida Ismailakhunova, Gregory Kisunko Saida Ismailakhunova, Moritz Meyer, Alisher Rajabov, ICR Main Contributors: Gregory Kisunko ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CPF Country Partnership Framework CPI Consumer Price Index CPS Country Partnership Strategy DFID Department for International Development GIZ German Development Agency GoKG Government of the Kyrgyz Republic GSBPM Generic Statistical Business Process Model HRMIS Human Resources Management Information System ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communication Technologies ILO International Labor Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IPF Investment Project Financing ISR Implementation Status Report IT Information Technologies ITIL Information Technology Infrastructure Library KGSTAT Kyrgyzstan Implementation of the NSDS Project LAN Local Area Network MAs Ministries and Agencies MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MoF Ministry of Finance MoU Memorandum of Understanding MPs Members of Parliament MPA Multiphase Programmatic Approach MTR Mid-Term Review NSC National Statistical Committee NSDS National Strategy for Development of Statistics NSSD National Strategy of Sustainable Development NSS National Statistical System PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PforR Program-for-Results PMG Project Management Group POM Project Operational Manual RF Results Framework SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SNA System of National Accounts TA Technical Assistance TF Trust Fund TP Twinning Partnership TWG Technical Working Group WB World Bank UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNFPA United Nations Population Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 4 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 11 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 21 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 23 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 24 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 28 ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 43 ANNEX 3. THEORY OF CHANGE ............................................................................................ 44 ANNEX 4: LIST OF TRAINING AND STUDY VISIT ACTIVITIES PROVIDED BY THE PROJECT ........ 45 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P144874 KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS Country Financing Instrument Kyrgyz Republic Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Ministry of Finance National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective of the proposed KGSTAT project is to support and facilitate production and dissemination of reliable and timely statistics in a cost-effective manner, in accordance with international standards and in response to user needs, by modernizing and streamlining the processes in the NSC to ensure that it has sufficient resources in terms of human resources, essential tools and infrastructure. Page 1 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) FINANCING FINANCE_TBL Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) Donor Financing TF-17862 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,471,622 Total 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,471,622 Total Project Cost 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,471,622 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness Original Closing Actual Closing 03-Feb-2015 23-Jun-2015 30-Jun-2018 14-Dec-2018 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 18-Dec-2017 1.66 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 16-May-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.34 02 22-Dec-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 1.12 Moderately 03 14-Aug-2017 Moderately Unsatisfactory 1.53 Unsatisfactory 04 20-Nov-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 1.66 Page 2 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 05 05-Sep-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 2.12 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Laura Tuck Cyril E Muller Country Director: Saroj Kumar Jha Lilia Burunciuc Senior Global Practice Director: Ana L. Revenga Carolina Sanchez Practice Manager: Adrian Fozzard Carlos Silva-Jauregui Gregory Kisunko, Saida Saida Ismailakhunova, Gregory Task Team Leader(s): Ismailakhunova Kisunko ICR Contributing Author: Saida Ismailakhunova Page 3 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES Context 1. The Kyrgyz Republic is a landlocked country with a population of 6.3 million and a gross national income of US$1130 per capita (Atlas method, 2017). While Kyrgyz economy and society are the most liberal and open in Central Asia, the country has experienced significant political and social instability. Urban/rural divide and continuing regional disparities exacerbated by urban overpopulation, youth unemployment and marginalization persist in the country. In view of these pressures, the Government is placing high priority on regional/territorial development – a key focus of its medium-term development program 2018-2022 – as well as improved governance. With the aim of ensuring political stability conducive to achieving socio-economic goals the country is challenged to build institutions that are resilient to changes in administration and provide predictable and transparent governance. This, in turn, would enable the country to leverage its unique democratic identity in the region to attract investment and maximize the benefits of community participation in public affairs. The country’s economy remains vulnerable to external shocks owing to its reliance on one gold mine, Kumtor, which accounts for about 10% of GDP, and on worker remittances, equivalent to about 27% of GDP in 2017. While gold exports and remittances provide a critical source of foreign exchange, allowing the country to accommodate a significant trade deficit, they also drive Dutch Disease effects, undermining production of export-oriented tradable goods/services and exacerbating the inherent limitations of a small and poorly connected domestic market. 2. The government has adopted and approved the National Strategy of Sustainable Development (NSSD) of the Kyrgyz Republic for the period between 2018 and 2040. Objectives of the strategy include development of a sustainable political system and a dynamic economy. Implementation of the strategy requires a well-functioning statistical system that can provide relevant and reliable, timely statistical information. Better official statistics are needed to assist the government and civil society to make better- informed decisions and monitor the progress of reform measures. Development of the National Statistical System 3. The Kyrgyz Republic’s National Statistical System (NSS) is one of the most important information systems of the country along with fiscal and administrative data at the ministerial level. In 1991, the Kyrgyz Republic inherited an official statistical system, which was a “regional� segment of the Soviet Union’s state statistical system. This has been transformed into a fully independent national statistical system of a sovereign state. The NSS has also successfully transitioned from a system oriented towards the needs of a centrally planned economy, based on the “Material Product System� (MPS) standards to “the System of National Accounts� and is now adjusted to the needs of a market–driven economy. The first Law on Statistics was adopted in 1994. The law declared the NSS independent and under the new law the NSS underwent substantial transformation being excluded from the main politically controlled organs of the government. By 2011, the Kyrgyz Republic’s NSS has fully completed the transition to a model of official statistics following international methodological standards. Page 4 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 4. At the project appraisal, the Kyrgyz Republic’s official statistics faced challenges stemming from outdated policies and a lack of financial resources. These challenges were identified in the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) for period of 2013-2017. They included: (i) weak capacity within the National Statistical Committee (NSC), and statistics producing ministries and agencies (MAs); (ii) limited technical ability; (iii) limited financial resources; (iv) poor statistical coordination within the NSS; and (v) outdated policy for dissemination of produced statistics. Those challenges continued to be priorities in the current Program on Development and Improvement of the State Statistics for 2015–2019, which was approved in by the Government Decree #144 on March 24, 2015. 5. With the support of international development organizations, steps are being taken to strengthen the capacity of the NSS in order to collect, analyze and use objective, accurate and timely information on the social-economic development of the country. The Statistics of Norway (SN) had cooperation projects with the NSC since 2007 and was a major partner in implementation of the Kyrgyz NSDS. The SN project supported implementation of the NSDS in the following major areas: (a) Organizational Development; (b) Information Technology; (c) Agricultural Register. DFID supported the implementation of the NSDS in the Kyrgyz Republic through the World Bank executed trust fund “Central Asia Poverty Analysis Support� program. The World Bank supported a bank executed grant for “Technical assistance to the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic in Designing a New Statistics Master Plan for the Developing of Statistic (SMP-2)� (closed in 2013) and recipient executed grant “Kyrgyz Republic: Implementation of Statistical Master Plan� (closed in 2010). The grants funds were used for preparation of the SMP and supported some activities outlined in the previous SMP. 6. The Government Program on Development and Improvement of the State Statistics for 2015 – 2019 is a comprehensive document, which indicates main directions of methodology and national statistics development. It also addresses legal and institutional issues, identifies technical assistance and training needs, estimates the costs of implementing the strategy and explains how these costs will be financed. The plan was developed to cover the entire national statistical system (both vertically and horizontally). The strategy covers stakeholders at the national, regional and district (rayon) levels (who were consulted as part of the process). The World Bank team provided technical assistance (TA) to develop the program and stays in close contact with the NSC, donors active in the area of statistical capacity building, and other stakeholders. 7. The Kyrgyzstan Implementation of the NSDS project (KGSTAT) aimed to support the reform agenda and closely related to the National Strategy of Sustainable Development of the Kyrgyz Republic for the period of 2013-2017. The project was designed to support the implementation of the Program 2015-2019 and---together with other development partners’ efforts--aimed to upgrade the quality and reliability of official statistics. The project focused in particularly on: (i) improving the organization of statistics; (ii) strengthening technical capacity, information and communication technologies (ICT), and upgrading and expanding infrastructure; (iii) modernizing the production and dissemination of statistical data; and (iv) strengthening statistical intellectual capacity. Page 5 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Country Partnership Framework and Links to National Strategies 8. The objectives of the KGSTAT project were consistent with the Kyrgyz Government’s priorities, the Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY14-17 and CPF for FY19-22. According to the CPS, “[statistical capacity] is important not only in terms of enhancing public accountability and transparency, but also to upgrade the basis for improved policy formulation and for monitoring reform implementation�i. The demand for better and readily available official statistics from all users on different levels must be supported through the capacity building of the National Statistical Committee (NSC) and other agencies producing and disseminating statistical information. The project contributed to objective 5 of CPF for FY19-22 “Promote digitalization of e-economy� by introduction of electronic data collection for poverty measurement. The Law on Official Statistics contributed to building legal framework for further implementation of the statistical reforms, explicitly mentioned in CPF for FY19-22. 9. The CPS considered the statistical system as part of the overall agenda for governance. CPS FY14-17 strategic goal had been to help reduce extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity through support for improved governance. The governance-oriented approach focused on three dimensions of the relationship between the state and the citizen – public administration and public services delivery, business environment and investment climate, and natural resources and physical infrastructure. The availability of high-quality statistical information would strengthen evidence-based policymaking and public oversight of government actions, strategies and targets. The KGSTAT project financed by ECASTAT TF set the goal to provide the key relevant indicators for formulating, updating, monitoring and evaluating the strategies and targets of the country's social and economic development towards medium term and long-term vision. Thus, indicators and the data for monitoring performance were to be improved by strengthening the national statistical system. 10. The PDO of the project was aligned with the FY 14-17 Country Partnership Strategy’s (CPS) strategic goal and priority areas of engagement [Area of Engagement 1: Public Administration and Public Service Delivery – the state as provider and the citizen as consumer of essential public services (pages 20- 22)] and remains well-aligned with the current objectives of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) covering the period FY19-FY22 [Objective 1: Strengthen institutions for improved macro management of the Focus Area 1: Strengthen foundations for inclusive private sector-led growth (pages 16-17)]. The project contributed to objective 5 of CPF for FY19-22 “Promote digitalization of e-economy� by introduction of electronic data collection for poverty measurement. The Law on Official Statistics contributed to building legal framework for further implementation of the statistical reforms, explicitly mentioned in CPF for FY19-22. 11. The project remains relevant and consistent with current development priorities outlined in the “Sustainable development strategy till 2040�, the reform agenda in the National Strategy of Sustainable Development of the Kyrgyz Republic for the period of 2013-2017 and the Bank’s engagements to support them. 12. State programs of the Kyrgyz Republic associated with further development of official statistics: • National Development Strategy 2040, Chapter VII, paras 7.1, 7.2. One of the important components of the work is establishing a monitoring system including the development of the national indicator framework. The indicator system should be linked to the global SDG indicator framework, which will provide needed inputs into monitoring both national and global progress towards the SDGs. • State program on development of digital economy “Taza Koom�. Page 6 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) • The Kyrgyz Government’s medium-term implementation plan for 2018-2022, entitled “Unity, Trust, Creation�, which complements the Vision 2040, sets the basis for data-exchange among NSS actors as digital transformation rolls out. Rationale for Bank Support 13. The rationale behind the Bank’s involvement and its leadership in this project builds upon its global expertise on statistical capacity building and experience in implementing similar projects. Prior to project implementation, the World Bank team also provided technical support for development of the NSDS and stayed in close contact with the NSC, donors active in the field of statistical capacity building, and other stakeholders. The World Bank was one of the few development partners willing to invest strategically in support of wide-ranging activities envisaged in the NSDS, while overall filed of donor- funded capacity building activities in statistics was often fragmented and not well coordinated. Main Beneficiaries 14. The main beneficiaries of the project outcomes were the NSC and its regional offices, the government, the general public and international development partners. (a) NSC and MAs: The NSC (both at central and regional levels) is the first beneficiary and stakeholder of this project, being the main producer of statistics in the Kyrgyz Republic and the coordinator of the NSS. Statistics units within selected MAs that are part of the NSS are the next beneficiaries of the project. Interested MAs were able to benefit from the project, especially key data producers. (b) Policy makers and planners: Policy and decision-makers in the public and private sectors rely on valid and consistent data and indicators to inform their policy decisions and monitor implementation progress. A key objective of the project was to improve the quality, timeliness and accessibility of data so that all interested stakeholders have more relevant data to inform their decisions. (c) Civil society and the general public: The project aimed to ensure that data is readily accessible and available for use by different stakeholders, including academic institutions (for research), educational institutions, the Parliament and other oversight organizations, media organizations, civil society and the general public in order to hold their government accountable by having a better understanding of what has and has not been achieved. The media played an important role by helping to sensitize the public about the activities of NSS, and as a means to disseminate statistics to the general public. (d) Development partners: Development partners not only help support the strengthening of the NSS, they are also key users of data for monitoring their programs, and for carrying out international reporting on realization of programs. Theory of Change 15. The theory of change (see Annex 3) explains how completion of project activities produced outputs that in turn resulted in outcomes and helped achieving intended impact. In the long-term, the project supports the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic in building the NSS that is capable and has Page 7 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) capacity to provide policy makers with timely data and advice for evidence-based decision-making, measure progress in achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and goals set under the Kyrgyz National Development Strategy 2018-2040. 16. This long-term vision would not be attainable without investments in physical infrastructure, which is fundamental for collection, production and dissemination of reliable and timely data. While physical infrastructure is crucial, timeliness and quality of the data cannot be achieved only by installing more hardware. It requires enhancement of the governance structure of the NSS, continuous capacity building of data users and producers, modernization of NSC own internal structure and division of responsibilities between units within the NSC, and better institutional coordination and strengthened cooperation among the NSS key stakeholders facilitating better use of data for design of better policies. Moreover, elevated levels of trust and higher credibility through better communication support the NSC in delivering to these high expectations. 17. The envisioned institutional changes will happen outside of the current project timeframe (2015 - 2018). The expectation that the implementation of the project contributed to the longer-term goal are well grounded. Besides accelerating progress towards higher levels of statistical capacity and a better governance structure, the project also increased Government’s interest to development of the NSS which manifested itself in the request for a follow-up lending operation (currently under preparation) and in a very lively and positive discussion of the new Law on Statistics (preparation of the Law was supported by the project) in the Parliament. Moreover, project outcomes, such as strengthened regulatory framework and feedback loop, more prominent position of the NSC products in decision-making, updated statistical infrastructure, and strengthened capacity of the staff for paradigm shifts within the Government, in the NSC and among the NSS stakeholders, will be cemented during implementation of the new lending project. 18. The theory of change for the project builds on multiple critical assumptions which are essential to transform outputs into impact: a. Strengthening regulatory framework. The new Law on Statistics is adopted, providing a strong base for the future development of the NSS. This Law cannot not be properly implemented without changing other legislative documents, therefore relevant bylaws were also developed and sent for consideration in the Parliament. There is a risk of lengthy deliberation on the by-laws, which would delay proper implementation of the Law on Statistics. The NSC staff and management are aware of this and work closely with MPs and other stakeholders who can be affected by the changes. b. Cooperation between the NSS stakeholders. The successful implementation and lasting impact of modernized institutional arrangements and methodologies require buy-in from the NSS stakeholders outside of the NSC. The project supported establishment and/or operationalization of several inter- agency coordination and feedback mechanisms providing a platform for consultations and coordination: Advisory Council technical working groups (TWG) under all 4 project components; regular coordination and information exchange meetings of development partner supporting statistics; regularly conducted user satisfaction surveys and user feedback mechanisms (the NSC website allows data users submit their feedback and ask questions). These and other formal cooperation mechanisms supported by the project facilitate continuous communication and therefore, buy-in and trust-building among stake-holders. c. Continuous capacity building and retention. While the overall staff turnover in the NSC is Page 8 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) reasonably low, capacity replenishment is poor (long-term career in the NSC is not attractive to the junior staff). This creates a risk of limited sustainability of capacity building efforts supported by the project. The NSC established a Mentorship Program, introduced the HRMIS for better monitoring institutional HR need and improved performance management and planning. During project implementation, over 80% of the core NSC staff received hands-on training. These learning opportunities were particularly important in improving the NSC staff capacity as the NSC own training budget is very small. The NSC wants to address the issue of limited budget by improving access to continuous education for its staff and statisticians in other NSS institutions. During project implementation (and with only very small direct support from the project), the NSC established an Institute for Statistical Studies and Continuous Education based on the existing Resource Methodological Center. d. Continuous investment in the statistical infrastructure. The project addressed most pressing needs of the NSC and created a coordination platform for development partners, but available funds, although very effectively applied, were not sufficient for upgrading the whole NSS. Therefore, for the long- term sustainable impact, the Government needs to build on the foundation created by the project. The government request for a statistical capacity building loan and the World Bank agreement to support this request suggest that outcomes of the KG STAT project will be transferred into impacts. Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 19. The overall objective of the project was to support and facilitate the production and dissemination of reliable and timely statistics in a cost-effective manner, in accordance with international standards and in response to user needs, by modernizing and streamlining the processes in the NSC to ensure that it has sufficient resources in terms of human resources, essential tools and infrastructure. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators Key Outcomes 20. The project was designed to reach four key outcomes. The following outcomes “unpack� and separate for individual assessment multiple outcomes “packed� in the PDO (see Annex 1, section A.1 where below outcomes are attributed to specific indicators). a. NSC has capacity to produce and disseminate key statistics in line with international standards b. Increased use of the NSC data and reports for monitoring, government policy making and development partners’ analytical and advisory products. c. Strengthened regulatory framework for statistical work and clarity of responsibilities of NSS. d. Strengthened feedback loop within NSS. Summary of high-level outcome indicators 21. Increased capacity for production, dissemination and use of reliable and timely statistics. Page 9 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Components Original Components (see Annex 2) 22. The PDO was to be achieved through the implementation of four project components with a total allocation of US$2.5 million. The project components covered all necessary elements to strengthen statistical capacity of the country. The design emphasized the Government’s ownership and coordination with all stakeholders, producers and users of statistical data. The project components were designed to support the implementation of the four key pillars of the NSDS discussed above. Specific proposed Bank- supported activities were structured around the four NSDS components as outlined below. 1) Component 1 - Improving organization of statistics. This component supported a range of activities, including: (i) strengthening legal and regulatory foundation of the state statistical system; (ii) improving coordination and cooperation among relevant government agencies and donors in production and dissemination of statistics; (iii) improving the dialogue between data users and producers. 2) Component 2 - Strengthening technological capacity, ICT technologies, upgrading and expanding statistical infrastructure. This component supported the following activities: (i) introduction of advanced data processing systems; (ii) upgrading data storages and setting up the system for information security; and (iii) modernizing of computer and printing facilities. 3) Component 3 - Modernizing production and dissemination of statistical data. This component supported (i) implementing the SNA-2008 standard for national accounts; (ii) improving methodology, organizational arrangement and tools for collection, analysis and usage of different types of statistics such as those critical to the poverty estimates and system of national accounts, gender statistics, consumer price index, or a specific sector (e.g., agriculture, trade, etc.), and ecological statistics; (iii) transitioning to electronic data collection system in all statistical domains; (iv) strengthening the organizational capacity of the NSS; (v) improving a unified system of classification and coding; (vi) strengthening statistical registers; (vii) providing methodological support to statistical censuses and surveys; (viii) improving management of the quality of statistical data and data dissemination and further aligning production of statistical indicators with the need of the NSDS; and (ix) enhancing use of administrative data for statistical purposes. The Bank financed portion focused on the statistical products identified by the NSC and the Bank. 4) Component 4 - Strengthening statistical intellectual and human capacity. This component supported an assessment of human resource needs, set a system of staff rotations, implementation of continuous education and retraining of the staff (especially staff in regions) and effective collaboration with institutions of higher education. 5) Component 5 - Project management. This component supported an incremental operational cost of project implementation. Revised Components (if applicable) Page 10 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Components were not revised during the life of the project and no other significant changes took place in terms of scope, implementation arrangements and initial funding allocation. II. OUTCOME Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome Achievement of Project Development Objectives 23. The achievement of the PDO is aligned with progress towards four high level outcomes, which are supported through multiple outputs delivered under this project. Description of each Outcome 24. The key outcomes of the project can be summarized as follows: 1. NSC has capacity to produce and disseminate key statistics in line with international standards Capacity of the institution includes several key factors, which are crucial for high quality and timely production and dissemination of statistics: (i) institutional capacity – legislation that provides a legal framework, (ii) relevant statistical methodologies in line with international standards; (iii) capacity of the staff to apply modern methodological skills and (iv) infrastructure for efficient and effective functioning of the statistical system. The project contributed to all those factors. • NSC staff is trained in the latest methods of standards in key statistics and ready to use and mainstream new methodologies (please see Annex 4 for the list of related training activities provided by the project). • Updated IT capacity for operations, printing facility directly impacts capacity of NSC to produce and disseminate statistics. In Bishkek and cities, data users mainly rely on online sources, in particularly on the official website. In regions, where internet connectivity is limited, users access information using hardcopies of NSC’s publications. Improved printing facility helped to produce better quality publication with the higher speed. • Internationally accepted statistical techniques in collection, compilation and control are applied and carried out for data sources and statistical products for most statistical areas. According to the assessment of the DesStat, which is a part of the Twinning partnership arrangement, currently statistics in the Kyrgyz Republic is compiling all basic data following international standards in line with UN Fundamental Principles and Code of Practice of EUROSTAT in respective areas of statistics, recommendations on methodology and timeliness (TP final report, pp.6, 30-31). • Dissemination of statistical products and data has been improved significantly, which can be seen in an increase of number of NSC website visitors from 82 049 in 2016 to 234 643 in 2018. On average, daily over 1000 (minimum recorded daily number of visits is 500, maximum – 1800) users open and use the website for downloads. Page 11 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 2. Increased use of the NSC data and reports for monitoring, government policy making and development partners’ analytical and advisory work Improved IT capacity for operations, printing facility, trained staff, effective and functioning HRM system, strengthened relationships with relevant data users, policy-makers and data producers, and resulted in an increased use of the NSC data and reports for monitoring, policy making and development partners’ analytics and advisory. Development partners and the government heavily rely on official statistics, which informed their decision-making. 3. Strengthened regulatory framework for statistical work and clarity of responsibilities of NSS The regulatory framework is the basis for well-functioning and efficient NSS and helps to ensure delivery of the public services to the population and the government itself. The regulatory framework for statistical work has been strengthened through the new Law on Statistics and introduction of changes in 25 acting Laws and the Infringement Code, which required changes to make regulation consistent. The Law on Official Statistics clarifies the responsibilities of NSC and data producers. The Law determines the position of the National Statistical Committee (NSC) - the official state institution that is organizing all official statistical activities and guarantees professional independence and autonomy. Article 7 states the following role of the NSC “as a leading official data producer that coordinates development, production and dissemination of official statistics in the national statistical system�. Data producer responsibilities are clarified in article 9. 4. Strengthened feedback loop within NSS The project supported several activities that sustainably strengthened different feedback mechanisms: • Introduction of the user satisfaction survey improved feedback loop within the NSC and with data users - the survey is regularly conducted and available on the website and through mobile applications. • Introduction of feedback link to the NSC website where data-users provide comments, questions and requests – the feedback is regularly monitored and acted upon by the NSC staff. • Establishment of well-functioning interagency technical working groups where the NSC experts and other institutional stakeholders can discuss data needs and requirements for statistical information. • Project activities also played an instrumental role in strengthening relationships with the relevant policy making agencies, which helped to transfer feedback of the policy maker needs for statistics resulted in signing of nine MoUs between the NSC and institutional data providers, including first-ever agreements with the Tax Service, Customs and Ministry of Defense for electronic data exchange. Moreover, the new Law on Official Statistics provides the normative base for putting data-users in the center of the NSS. Article 5 of the Law states that “all users have equal and simultaneous access to official statistics� and “official statistics meet current and future needs of users and ensure citizens right to have publicly accessible information�. Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops - Summary of Findings 25. Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) mission meetings with project beneficiaries and user satisfaction survey results indicated a broad agreement that the project contributed to improving the NSC’s capacity and strengthening NSS in Kyrgyzstan, as a whole. This contribution was done through: Page 12 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) a. Strengthened regulatory framework: new Law on Official Statistics was developed and changes in 25 acting Laws and the Infringement Code, which required changes to make regulation consistent, were introduced. The Law determines the position of the NSC as an official state institution organizing all official statistical activities and guarantees its professional independence and autonomy. The Law was developed in consultation with project beneficiaries at TWG meeting and roundtable discussions and public hearings. b. Improved interagency cooperation: Project facilitated the establishment and functioning of TWGs and signing of MoUs with key government agencies (including data producers). c. Enhanced NSC capacity: NSC staff benefitted from training, activities involving expert visits to Kyrgyzstan and capacity building study visit activities aimed at introducing new and improving existing methods and standards. Transfer of new knowledge accumulated at the national level to the NSC staff at the subnational level aimed at building statistical intellectual capacity was implemented through local training activities organized under the project. d. Improved data dissemination: Project assisted the NSC in establishing a feedback loop mechanism - user satisfaction survey carried out on the NSC’s website – which improved the dialogue between the NSC and users of statistics and helped strengthen the credibility and reliability of the NSC as an institution and producer of official statistics. Survey results confirmed improvements in data dissemination, including relevance, accessibility, visual clarity and readability of data products and services. User satisfaction raised from 25% to 38%, which is a 41% percentage increase in the user satisfaction during the project lifetime. e. Improved infrastructure: Project helped to upgrade and expand IT hardware and software to improve data collection, preparation, storage and dissemination. Overall Outcome Rating Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation 26. The PDO is well-aligned with national development plans for official statistics. The project was designed to support the implementation of the long-term National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) for 2013-2017 and aimed at upgrading the quality and reliability of official statistics. Activities under the project also supported the Program on Development and Improvement of the State Statistics for 2015 –2019 and its action plan for implementation. 27. The project design consisting of 4 components and a rich set of activities was consistent with the PDO aligned with the NSDS action plan. Activities supported under this project enabled the NSC to advance in production and dissemination of reliable and timely statistics adequate to international standards. It also helped the NSC build and elaborate on a broader vision of the direction the national statistics should develop in the long-term and enhance professional capacity, which is essential in moving forward with the activities covered by the project less extensively. The KGSTAT project design was informed and grouped on the long-term engagement and technical support provided by the Bank and other development partners. 28. The project implementation was relevant to the achievements of the PDO and well structured. Given the NSC had no previous experience implementing lending projects, an in-house project implementation set- Page 13 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) up represented by the Project Management Group (PMG) did not only provide for effective project implementation, but also contributed to the NSC’s internal capacity building in implementing recipient- executed projects. In particularly, the NSC benefitted from gaining experience in fiduciary issues and international principles of financial management and procurement guiding the project implementation. The PMG liaised with the NSC senior management, staff at the technical level and twinning partner on a day-to-day basis to resolve outstanding issues that would hamper smooth implementation of project activities and ensure efficient project implementation. Having the twinning partnership arrangement as part of the project implementation not only helped to increase the level of knowledge sharing generated (by providing the NSC access to the international expertise in developing statistical methodologies, streamlining processes and reshaping procedures), but also built the personnel capacity in results-based management. The delay in bringing the twinning partner on board has lowered the extent to which the NSC could have benefited from this cooperation both in terms of the depth and breadth of activity implementation and the level of knowledge sharing and imposed sustainability risks of achieved results. Nonetheless, there are agreed measures between the NSC and TP aimed to mitigate this risk. As per the ToR, the TP is committed to provide remote consultations via e-mail, telephone conversations, and videoconferences as needed and within reasonable limits over a period of 12 months after the contract completion. 29. Most of the targets set by the project and described in the Results Framework (see Annex 1) have been met. The PDO level results indicator - statistical capacity of the state statistical system according to the World Bank Bulletin Board – has improved from 82.2 to 86.7ii between 2015 and 2018 respectively, which exceeds the end target of 86 initially set by the project. The major part of intermediate results indicators reached targeted values. 30. Project high level achievements and intermediate outcomes can be summarized as follows: 1. NSC has capacity to produce and disseminate key statistics in line with international standards IT capacity (hardware and software) for operations is adequate and maintained. The project purchased and installed computers, servers, data storages, printing facilities, tablets, smartphones, and another ICT equipment. The procured equipment and is under use in the central and regional offices. The procured ICT equipment allowed to upgrade 63% of the PCs (536 units) and 100% of laptops (14 units) used by the staff at the central and regional levels, more than 80% of tablets (80 units) and 65% of smartphones (10 units). The tablets are used to conduct KIHS and the Population Trust Survey in all seven oblasts of the country, in the capital and Osh city and smartphones are used to collect price statistics. As a result of efficient procurement practices, the project generated savings, which were used to procure additional 15 tablets to collect data on mutual trade between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan as part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) agreement with the pilot data collection initiated in July 2018. Data collection and processing has been carried out on a monthly basis since August 2018. The remaining portion of savings was used to co-finance the renovation of the local area network (LAN). The new printing facility is adequate for production of NSC publications. The printing facility supplied by the project allows printing approximately 189 copies of one publication (300 sheets) a day (8,000 sheets an hour). The equipment was used to print 300 copies each of the Common Classifier of Economic Activity and Page 14 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Nomenclature of Administrative-Territorial and Territorial Units were published, which allowed to adequately cover the need of the NSC, regional and rayon statistical departments, State Tax Service departments at the national and rayon levels in these publications. NSC uses the printing facility to publish its products as per the statistical work plan. Since the installation of the facility in 2017 the NSCs printed 167 publications (13088 pages or 6287 copies) in 2017 and 235 publications (19130 pages or 8007 copies) in 2018. During ICR meetings the NSC mentioned that before the project the NSC had to out-source printing of publications. Printing facilities helped not only increase capacity for printing, but also reduced the need for additional resources for publications from the state budget. The IT Development Concept for 2018-2022 has been developed. A comprehensive ICT assessment of the NSC system was initiated and completed under the project in June 2018. The assessment results are reflected in the Concept, which lays out recommendations on the areas of IT development the NSC should focus on, including IT security, Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) standards, IT system management, and provides recommendations on further IT infrastructure improvements. The Concept was approved at the NSC IT Council session in December 2018. It shall be noted that the IT Council was established based on the recommendations provided under the project. NSC is in full compliance with the internationally accepted standards and classifications. NSC has worked with the twinning partner on the development of methodologies and classifications. The following methodologies and instructions have been developed and approved. All revised or newly developed methodologies are in line with international standards. 1. Methodology of calculating the issue of National Bank services (approved by NSC resolution #15 on September 24, 2018). 2. Methodology of estimation of illegal activities (approved by NSC resolution #10 on July 30, 2018). 3. Methodology of calculating the cost of R&D activities as part of the SNA-2208 (approved by NSC resolution #9 on July 26, 2018). 4. Methodology of Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) estimation (approved by NSC resolution #26 on October 30, 2018). 5. Methodological notes on selected indicators of national wealth (approved by NSC resolution #25 on October 30, 2018). 6. Instructions on reporting culture and art statistics (approved by NSC resolution #6 on June 8, 2018). 7. Methodology for calculating the volume of trade and services belonging to individual entrepreneurs and individuals (approved by NSC resolution #3 on January 16, 2019). Draft methodology of estimating non-observed economy was developed and is expected to be approved in the second quarter of 2019. A set of legal, methodological and administrative documentation required for carrying out the Population and Housing Census was developed and finalized. The methodology was tested in July-August 2018 and is now being revised. Adoption and use of electronic data collection to enhance timeliness of data collection, preparation and dissemination. Introduction of the e-data collection system was piloted using four forms of statistical reporting, including “1-invest�, “financial and economic (micro) activities�, “1-labour�, and “1-F- Report on the main Page 15 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) financial indicators of the enterprise� forms. E-data collection of the household budget and labor force surveys is conducted using tablets and CAPI technologies (Survey Solution) in all oblasts and cities of the country. Price data collection for CPI and other price indices is conducted using smartphones and respective software generating timely price data. Also, after the Kyrgyz Republic joined the EEU, the NSC faced a challenge in estimating export and import volumes from EEU countries as this data was not registered at the customs border. The project helped the NSC to purchase tablets to conduct e-surveys on cross border trade at country’s five customs control points. The e-data collection improved data timeliness from five weeks to receive data from regions to the NSC head office to daily online monitoring of export and import volumes. Draft ToRs for development of the automated system of consumer price index calculation have been prepared using international expertise. Further work on this activity is expected to be carried out beyond the project lifetime. The e-data processing module carried out by the NSC in collaboration with the Norway Stat project is underway. Expansion of data coverage. The project helped to increase geographic coverage of administrative and territorial units for price statistics, including rural areas for the first time and expanding coverage of goods and services. Since 2017 NSC has been publishing information for 18 administrative and territorial units. Data quality assurance framework and quality assurance working group is established and functioning. (Data errors are reduced, and regular reviews are conducted). The description of current business processes throughout the entire NSC structure (including regional statistical units) in accordance with the United Nations Economic Commission’s for Europe (UNECE) Generic Statistical Business Process Model (GSBPM), one of the key standards for statistical modernization, was completed (in collaboration with the Norway Stat project). The quality assurance strategy is under preparation and it is to be included in the NSDS 2020-2025. Statistical registers are established and regularly updated. NSC has developed methodological provisions on statistical accounting “General provisions on statistical units used in the Kyrgyz statistical system� in accordance with the UNECE Guidelines on Statistical Business Registers, which is expected to be approved at the NSC Methodological Council in late November 2018. The statistical model register improved in two main areas: 1) analysis of the legal, operational and accounting structure of enterprises to define statistical units; 2) interdepartmental cooperation with State Tax Service, Customs and ICT Committee to ensure NSC’s access to administrative data for feature and condition verification purposes. For further implementation NSC has been working with other state agencies on the establishment of a joint database between the concerned agencies and departments to facilitate the data exchange process. Management framework for human resources (including recruitment, training programs, and performance management) strengthening statistical intellectual and human capacity is in place and functioning well. NSC approved a mentorship program on March 23, 2017 (NSC resolution No. 27 dated March 23, 2017) and formed a working group to implement the program at the national and subnational levels. Several learning activities on the legislative rules and principles guiding the civil service, including HR provisions (admission in the civil service, staff duties and responsibilities, promotion and rotation), were provided to the NSC staff nationally and sub- nationally. 48 staff completed the mentorship program. A Human Resources Management Information System (HRMIS) compliant with international HRM standards according to the Italian Institute of Statistics (IStat) experts improved HR management in the statistical system. The current HR paper-based system is digitized in accordance with the 2020 international HRM standards and moved to the HRMIS. The HRMIS has been introduced in the central office and rolled out to all NSC offices at the regional (oblast) level, 45 staff have been Page 16 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) trained to work in the HRMIS. The system automatizes the HR management system, improving the quality of HR management processes and flexibility in planning staff competencies and their career development. The system also can track staff performance and plan for their training needs. The system includes an analytical module, which helps produce analytics on performance for HR management purposes and decision making. Mandatory HR reporting at the central and regional levels to the State Personal Service previously took two weeks but now takes only several minutes from introduction to the HRMIS. The e-system also has a learning component with more than 40 video tutorials for new HR staff (interactive education by sections in the e-system with the detailed instructions). This feature is especially important for regional offices as they are limited in face-to-face learning opportunities provided at the HQ level. A Community of Practice among HRMIS users has been created using a WhatsApp platform. The NSC has plans for further development of the e-system by introducing an e-library and records management system. A draft HR strategy was developed in line with international standards, the strategy and the action plan were approved by the NSC Resolution #6 on January 18, 2019. A Probation Manual Guide and Instruction on HR Record Management was developed and approved by NSC Order #115 on November 23, 2018. NSC has a core staff specialized in all areas of census/survey collection, analysis, evaluation, and dissemination. The study plan, comprising local and international training, was fully implemented. Over 80% of the core NSC staff received training and improved professional knowledge. Staff from regional statistical offices received local training in such key areas as data collection methodology for calculation of SDG and additional national indicators of food security, forms on social statistics (education, culture, housing fund, and injury rates), population and housing census, CAPI implementation for household budget and labor force surveys, SNA, registers, mutual trade and NSC HR strategy. These learning opportunities were particularly important in improving the NSC staff capacity as the NSC own budget only has a one percent allocation for staff learning activities. Improved approaches to continuous education, include such initiatives as establishment of an Institute for Statistical Studies and Staff Development based on the former Resource Methodological Center. The Institute is staffed with six professionals and includes an expert group comprising four experts, including PhD level experts, selected on a competitive basis. 2. Increased use of the NSC data and reports for monitoring, government policy making and development partners’ analytical and advisory work Strengthened regulatory framework with the adoption of a new Law on Official Statistics, improved collaboration from MDAs and universities and overall relationship with data producers, policy makers and data users as a whole, a set of methodologies developed in line with international standards, strengthened NSC staff capacity, improved infrastructure, including hardware and software, introduction of e-data collection methods, and efficient HRM system (see sub-para 1 of para 33 for more details on the listed activities) allow the NSC to produce reliable and timely data to inform policy decisions and development partner’s analytical and advisory work in specific policy areas covered under the KGSTAT project. 3. Strengthened regulatory framework for statistical work and clarity of responsibilities of the NSS Adequate statistical legislation is in place and functional (including relevant regulations and by laws) in line with internationally accepted standards for national statistical offices and statistical procedures (including UN Page 17 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Fundamental Principles and European Code of Practice). The NSC has developed a draft “Law on Official Statistics�, which went through a comprehensive review process with concerned MDAs and the public and gained additional international expertise from the UN Statistical Division. The final draft went through Parliament hearings on October 30, 2018. It was approved by the Parliament on May 29, 2019iii. Relevant bylaws were also developed under the project and are now under consideration in the Parliament. Mechanisms for effective inter-agency coordination are established and operational. The Advisory Council with members of the public and private sectors that advises the NSC, meets regularly and works effectively. Mechanisms for effective inter-agency coordination - the Advisory Council and technical working groups (TWG) under all four project components - are established, well-functioning and meet regularly. The Advisory Council meets twice a year. NSC made a significant progress on collaboration with MDAs under the TWG framework, which also brought greater clarity on the roles and responsibilities of parties within the NSS. MoUs with key government agencies (including data producers) have been signed, including the agreement of cooperation as part of the national inter-agency electronic interaction system “Tunduk�, addendum to the MoU with the Kyrgyz National Bank, agreements of cooperation in the field of information exchange with the State Registration Service, State Tax Service (STS), Social Fund, State Customs Service, Ministry of Transport and Roads and State Agency of Antimonopoly Regulation. This has significantly improved inter-agency coordination in terms of data exchange and optimization of business processes, for instance, NSC used to register business entities and transfer this data to the STS for verification/inclusion in its database. To optimize the work of NSC and STS, the registration function was transferred to STS and NSC now receives data on registered business entities from STS on a regular basis and uses tax data provided by STS to calculate mutual trade statistics under the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) activities. The project also played an instrumental role in shifting the individual entrepreneurs’ census to the survey format. Furthermore, strengthened inter-agency coordination is conducive to the improvements in demographic statistics and it will be used as a basis for the upcoming census 2020 and its pilot in 2019, balance of land and transport. Improved coordination on statistics among development partners’ activities. ICR meetings and feedback received from the development community indicated that coordination improved significantly. Examples of improved coordination include a joint funding of the local area network, where Norway Stat contributed 40 %, and KGSTAT project 60% of the needed resources, while the TA in the form contracted IT staff to support the LAN installation was funded by GIZ, and training activities related to Census, HR issues, registers, production of metadata, etc. were coordinated. The well-performed coordination was essential to bringing well-targeted (also not large in volume) additional funds for NSS development and avoiding duplication of activities. Improved relationship with universities. Agreements with seven universities in the Kyrgyz Republic have been signed. 50 students completed internships at the NSC. Two universities (International Universities of Kyrgyzstan and Kyrgyz National University) expressed their interest in opening chairs of statistics, which will prepare future generations of statisticians. 4. Strengthened feedback loop within NSS User satisfaction surveys are conducted regularly. User satisfaction rate was at 38% at the end of the project. User satisfaction survey was developed based on international methodologies and is conducted on the NSC Page 18 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) website and mobile application twice a year. The baseline rate of user satisfaction was estimated at 25%. NSC has advanced in its client orientation efforts as indicated by the latest score of 38%, reflecting the 41% increase of the user satisfaction rate. User feedback mechanisms are in place. The NSC website allows data users submit their feedback and ask questions. On average NSC receives or provides answers to 50 messages monthly. The number of NSC website users was 234,643 in late December 2018 and 82% of those were new users. The feedback loop has improved within NSS and between NSS and data users through (i) the introduction of the user satisfaction survey, which is now regularly conducted on the NSC website and mobile application, (ii) the establishment of well-functioning technical working groups (for more details see p. 12), (iii) introduction of the feedback mechanism allowing data-users to submit their requests or complaints or pose questions to the NSC. The Law on Official Statistics presents a normative basis to have a data-user in the center of the national statistical system. Article 5 states that “all users have equal and simultaneous access to official statistics� and “official statistics meet current and future needs of users and ensure citizens right to have publicly accessible information�. The developed regulations and project activities played an instrumental role in strengthening relationships with the relevant policy making agencies which helped to transfer feedback of the policy makers on the statistics (example, initiation of a new law via the Parliament, signed MoUs (for more details see para 32, sub-para 3. 31. As stated in in the PAD (p. 18), the project is not amendable to a cost-benefit or economic rate of return analysis. Statistical agency is not involved in any cost-recovery activities, apart from marginal data publications and selling specially requested datasets that generate a small amount of revenue. The financial returns from the project will not be representative of the economic returns. Precise quantitative rates of return cannot be determined for this type of project. Despite of significant delays in the project implementation, all planned activities were completed, and the project achieved its targets through efficient use of resources and investments. Project funds were fully disbursed. Broadly, economic benefits of the project could be summarized as the following: (i) higher and timely data contributes to better functioning of different sectors of economy, government and society; (ii) a reduction in the cost of data collection through introduction of e-collection systems for selected statistics; (iii) better quality data should enhance policy decisions based on evidence. 32. During the ICR mission meetings and discussions the Ministry of Finance (MoF) representatives have mentioned that the project funds were used efficiently on targeted activities with consideration for “value for money� and strict spending controls, including the NSC quarterly reports to MoF. Justification of Overall Outcome Rating SATISFACTORY 33. The project has achieved listed outcome, while supporting significant changes in the NSC and NSS. While addressing most pressing needs of the NSC, strengthening legal framework of the NSS, and creating a coordination platform for development partners, it also catalyzed the government’s interest and understanding of the importance of statistics. To build on the results of the project and secure the long-term sustainable impact, the Government requested a statistical capacity building loan and the World Bank agreed to provide funding. Project objectives and design remained substantially relevant, implementation was successful, Page 19 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) including full disbursement of funds; project efficacy and efficiency were substantial. Based on the above, the project deserves a “satisfactory� overall outcome rating. This rating is higher than the one given in the last ISR completed on August 28, 2018, i.e. almost four months before the project was closed. The lower ISR rating, therefore reflected team’s concerns about successful and timely completion of project activities. The only indicator not achieved by the time of the last ISR was Indicating that by the time of the ISR was the one related to adoption on the new Law on official statistics, which would be one of important achievements of the Project. The delay was due to lengthy and cumbersome process of the adoption of the Law. This concerns have not materialized because by the time of project closure, it was clear that adoption of the Law, while delayed, is just a matter of time, and therefore, final project outcomes were rated “satisfactory�. Other Outcomes and Impacts 34. Media coverage on statistical developments. During the project lifetime the level of media coverage of statistical contents has increased and the quality and timeliness of NSC responses and clarifications on media publications have significantly improved. 35. Improved capacity of NSC accounting and financial management staff. PMG has successfully completed the transfer of knowledge to the NSC’s accounting and financial management department with the introduction of 1C-accounting software. As a result of this activity, not only the KGSTAT project, but all donor projects under the NSC, including those financed by UNFPA, Norway Stat, ILO, USAID and other development partners, were transferred to 1C-accounting software. In 2017, was the first time that the Kyrgyz Chamber of Accounts did not provide NSC with reprimands related to inefficient accounting and financial management. However, regional offices could not yet benefit from this initiative and the NSC must prepare aggregate balances at the central level, otherwise 1C-software would help to aggregate and disaggregate information. During ICR meetings the client shared that MoF stressed that the NSC’s financial accounting capacity has improved. 36. Improvement of social statistics, including poverty and welfare measurement. 37. The NSC has strengthened its institutional capacity. This could be supported by the following evidence: (i) national legislation is aligned with international recommendations (UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics). The new law and bylaws provided the basis for the significant institutional change of the whole national statistical system, including strengthening collaboration between the NSC and key data producers and other relevant agencies, the NSC and data users; (ii) significant upgrade of staff expertise and skills, including regional offices; (iii) improved capacity to coordinate funding from donors. 38. The KGSTAT project provides a good basis for future development the NSC organization in a new technological environment, which is a country priority under the Taza Koom initiative. The NSC is modernizing its organization and data collection technology, ICT-based dissemination and integration with information system of other agencies in the country. In the long-term, the project has contributed to the development of a robust national statistical system and it is expected that the project will have a broader impact on the performance of the national governance system as a whole and policy-making processes. In particular, better data from the NSC will allow for evidence-based policy planning and accelerated development. Page 20 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 39. Improvements in the state of statistics in the Kyrgyz Republic are supported by the international evidence, including: (a) Quick Global Assessment (b) Assessment of the statistical capacity of the Kyrgyz Republic to compile with the SDG global indicators, October 2017 (c) IMF Country Report No. 15/53 published on February 22, 2018 assesses data adequacy for surveillance in the Kyrgyz Republic as “adequate�. The report notes that “National Statistics Committee (NSC) has legal and institutional environments that support statistical quality, and their respective staff are well-versed in current methodologies. The NSC maintains a comprehensive and regularly updated website with data that largely incorporate international methodological recommendations with adequate coverage and timeliness�. 40. No negative unintended outcomes were observed. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME 3.1. Project Preparation, Design and Quality at Entry Implementation Arrangements 41. To assist the NSC in the project implementation a project management group (PMG) was contracted for implementation, coordination and monitoring of project activities. NSC had no previous experience in implementing recipient-executed investment projects. The PMG comprised of a project manager, procurement specialist, financial management specialist, monitoring and evaluation consultant and office manager/translator. Team members had sufficient knowledge and experience in project implementation. The PMG played an instrumental role in coordinating the implementation of project activities among the NSC senior management and concerned departments, the twinning partner, the World Bank and other development partners. The PMG informed the NSC management, the Kyrgyz Government and the World Bank project team about project implementation progress through quarterly progress reports. Furthermore, the project progress was communicated more widely using the advisory statistical council and TWG meeting platforms. The described implementation arrangements were crucial in ensuring efficient project implementation and full disbursement of funds. 42. The World Bank team based both in the HQ and in the Country Office provided supervision support. Almost half of the team was based in the country office. TTL, procurement and financial specialists, and a team assistant were local staff and provided efficient and timely day-to-day project implementation and monitoring support. 43. Project implementation involving a twinning partnership (TP) was an essential part of implementation arrangements. The TP provided expert support to three project components as part of three phases of its work, including (i) inception phase, during which the assessment of the current state of the NSS was performed, areas requiring expert support prioritized and work plan developed, (ii) Page 21 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) implementation phase before the Mid-Term review, and (iii) implementation phase following the Mid- Term Review. The project implementation was initially delayed due to prolonged tender processes for contracting a twinning partner. As mentioned in the Disbursement section below, the TP joined the project on April 11, 2017, while the project became effective on June 23, 2015. Nevertheless, presence of the TP was crucial for successful implementation: (i) neither the NSC, nor PMG were equipped or had capacity to handle dozens separate activities and contracts that would be needed if specific tasks would be contracted separately; (ii) the NSC would face significant difficulties finding and attracting world-class experts assembled by the TP; and (iii) the TP arrangement secured close and effective collaboration of different subject-matter experts across project activities and NSC departments. 3.2 Implementation Disbursement 44. The project has disbursed US$2.47M or 99% of grant funds. Initial delays in disbursement were associated with the prolonged tender process for the selection of the twinning partner. The initial tender was unsuccessful, and the re-tendering of the TP consultancy resulted in a significant delay in implementation of activities under components 1,2 and 3. The contract with the TP was signed on April 11, 2017, while the project became effective on June 23, 2015. 3.3 Monitoring and Evaluation: Design, Implementation and Utilization 45. The Results Framework (RF) gave the client and the World Bank an effective tool in monitoring and evaluating the project progress. This in turn impacted outcomes of the project by providing timely information on the progress and achievements needed for further actions from the implementing agency and the world bank team sides. Additionally, results of the survey satisfaction survey (one of intermediate indicators) have been used by NSC to straighten data dissemination policy. While the design of the RF was well conceived, covered all activities and established links between intermediate outcomes and the main PDO indicator, some shortcomings have been identified: 1. Some indicators were measured by the client using self-assessment tools, such as the TASC tool provided by the US Census Bureau. The baseline level of the indicator was set by the Bureau, while the end-of-project value had to be calculated manually by the PMG. Not being involved in the baseline measurement process and insufficient in-depth knowledge of the tool might have affected the overall efficiency of the exercise. 2. Baseline for the user satisfaction survey was set at the later stage of the project implementation due to delays in contracting TP, while the TP’s expertise was needed to launch the survey with the users. a. Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance 46. The project focused on institutional reforms and capacity building of the NSS within the broad context of the governance system reform. The project did not have any direct environmental or social impacts. Nor there were any civil works. No safeguard issues emanated during the implementation. Therefore, the environmental rating ‘C’ given to the project at the appraisal stage remained the same Page 22 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) throughout the project implementation. 47. The last financial management implementation support and supervision of the project carried out on September 11, 2018 found financial management (FM) arrangements in the PMG including accounting, budgeting and planning, reporting, internal controls, external audits, funds flow, organization and staffing to be satisfactory. The client maintained the project designated account at a commercial bank acceptable to the Bank. For accounting purposes, it was used 1C accounting software that is reliable and widely used by project implementing entities in Central Asian countries. The semi-annual IFRs during the project implementation were submitted usually on time and found to be acceptable. The last audit report of project financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2017 by Baker Tilly Bishkek acceptable to the Bank with unmodified (clean) opinion and no recommendation in the management letter were submitted to the Bank on time and found to be acceptable. The final audit is ongoing and is expected to be delivered to the Bank before the deadline. Limited control reviews of sample transactions under the grant conducted during the financial management supervision and support missions never revealed any significant issues. Neither misstatements nor possible signs of internal control weaknesses as results of control review came to our attention. 48. At the request of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic for a no-cost extension of the project closing date, the project was restructured to extend the project closing date from June 30, 2018 to December 14, 2018. 49. The Procurement Post Review of the project rated the procurement process under the project as satisfactory. Procurement activities under the project were completed before the project closing date. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 4.1 Bank Performance 50. The World Bank team involved in the project preparation and implementation process made for a good mix of prior experience in implementing similar projects, substantial country experience, good project management skills and strong leadership to support the project. The Bank team liaised closely with the client and actively monitored project implementation, which allowed the Bank team to act proactively and highlight potential implementation risks and propose possible solutions. One of two project co-TTLs was based in the field – this allowed for more frequent interactions with the client, reduced response time, allowed for better synergies with other parts of the Bank program and reduced language barrier. At the client’s request, the Bank team also provided substantial support in planning, designing and implementing content activities. Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry 51. The Bank team worked closely with internal teams and the client in developing the design of the project to align with the country’s reform priorities in national statistical development and governance and fit it in national programs guiding the reform agenda and country assistance strategy. Taking into consideration that the client had no previous experience in preparing and implementing lending projects, the World Bank team provided extensive support to the NSC team in preparing project documentation at each step of the project preparation process. The composition of the Bank team working on the project Page 23 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) ensured the compliance with the Bank policies and procedures. Quality of Supervision 52. The quality of supervision was maintained at the adequate level throughout the project implementation. The number of team members involved in the supervision, including two TTLs (one HQ based and the other based locally), FM specialist, local procurement specialist and short-term consultant, remained stable and allowed to perform supervision activities in a timely manner, provide prompt advice and assistance to the NSC in resolving urgent or pending issues. 53. The World Bank conducted nine project supervision and implementation missions, including one for MTR and one for ICR, to resolve any issues posing risks to the achievement of development outcomes. There were five ISRs prepared during the project lifetime. Risks for sustainability a. Sustainable financing: Sustainability of capacity building and statistical infrastructure investments is based on client ownership and a commitment of the government to mobilize financial support to the NSC. Through the outcomes achieved under the project, coordination among development partners has improved and support to the budget—or, at least, specific activities in the future-- has increased. b. Institutional stability: Even though the role of the NSC is well-defined in its current statutes, the relationship towards other ministries and agencies under the government, trust in the statistical system should be further developed. The consultations on the Law on Statistics and discussions with parliament members, work of the inter-ministerial technical working groups and the Statistical Advisory Council created a platform to strengthen the role of the NSC in leading the NSS and coordinating official statistics. Also, the preparation and dissemination of higher quality data, and the introduction of feedback loops between users and producers of official statistics strengthened trust, credibility and reputation of the NSC. c. Capacity of public sector: High staff turnover triggered by low wages in the public sector, and in the NSC and Main Computing Center, undermine the sustainability of capacity building and effectiveness of training activities. While this project was not designed to address this challenge, preparing manuals and establishing standards mitigates the negative impact of high staff turnover. As capacity development accounts for a large part of the KGSTAT activities, the outcome can only be sustained if (a) trained staff remains with the NSC after the project is closed, and (b) the acquired improvements have been institutionalized through continuous transfer of knowledge further, i.e. to staff already working in the NSC, NSS and new staff entering statistical service. V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS . Lessons learned for project design Page 24 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 54. Fully engaging the NSC management and staff in project design ensured full ownership of the project and successful achievement of outcomes. The NSC team was engaged in the design and took the full ownership of the project from the very beginning. The crucial importance of this engagement was underlined by fact that the KG STAT was the first large scale RE operation to be implemented by the NSC and upstream engagement provided early learning for the NSC management team. Moreover, upstream engagement of managers and staff of the NSC line department in the design of project activities allowed for strong ownership and full transparency. 55. A Twinning Partnership requires development of ToRs immediately after project commencement. If the project design includes a twinning arrangement, it is crucial to start development of the relevant ToRs immediately after project commencement (or, if the NSO is ready to do so, during project preparation). Experience of the KG STAT, TJ STAT and AR STAT projects suggest that it takes at least 12 months from ToRs design to contracting. Lessons from the former two projects were applied to the implementation of the AR STAT project, where the TP was engaged significantly earlier than in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, therefore allowing for less compressed implementation schedule and longer interactions between the NSO and international experts. 56. Institutional and organizational reforms, and investments into physical infrastructure, including hardware and software, are instrumental in supporting the foundations for a better functioning NSS. While capacity building is important to enable the NSO in collecting, preparing and disseminating better data, a clear institutional framework shapes the position of the NSO relative to other members of the NSS, and better working conditions motivate staff and enhance the productivity of the NSO. 57. Implementation of wide range of activities under the statistical operation helped to identify areas of further investments. Limited project budget created a trade-off between two different approaches during the design stage of the project: either implementing many activities which slowly transform a large number of statistics or focus on a limited number of activities and maximize impact for selected areas. For the KGSTAT project, the team went for the first option which balances different interest groups within the NSO and supports broad-based ownership among staff and senior management. This approach also helped to identify areas for future investments, which could be financed through the government budget or additional financing from donors. Broader public awareness and publicity sub-component/activities would have improved project design and would have benefited the client. 58. Political economy significantly impacts outcomes of the project. Changes in the legislative framework take significantly more time than projected by the client and the World Bank team. Politico- economic realities are unpredictable and while the project design made very conservative estimates of the new statistical legislation, these estimates, still proved to be optimistic. While these delays are beyond control of either project team or the implementation agency, they negatively affect project performance indicators. Lessons learned for project implementation 59. Statistical capacity building requires an in-depth assessment of the current statistical system to ensure that new methodologies and investments into systems trigger the expected change under the project. While the team used the project preparation phase to identify priority areas and components. Page 25 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) The scope and complexity of statistical systems and limited preparation budget and specification of technical details of activities delayed implementation. Also, rapid technical and methodological change require frequent adjustments to activities or technical specifications to ensure relevance and biggest possible impact of the investment. 60. Successful implementation depends on the availability of project funds to finance supervision and complementary technical assistance through a technically strong team. Unfortunately, while the project design was complex and relative inexperience of implementation agency required close and time- consuming supervision activities, the budget for the project supervision was about half the country allocation for Investment Project Financing (IPF) projects. This constrained the project team in its supervision efforts and address multiple technical details in-person. Design, preparation and implementation of the project benefited significantly from presence of local staff/co-TTL in the World Bank country office who had already been engaged with the client on similar topics. 61. Design of evidence-based policies depends on the availability of high quality and timely data but is also a function of statistical literacy among analysts, decision makers and civil society. While technical working groups with participants from multiple members of the NSS created a platform to discuss better exchange and availability of high-quality statistics, and discussions around the new Law on Statistics raised interest for statistics, lack of knowledge and experience using data limits the positive development impact. Under the KGSTAT project the engagement with the School for Data created a platform to educate users of statistics beyond the Government Ministries and Agencies. Similar engagements are advisable in all countries where statistical capacity is limited. Recommendations for future statistical operations 62. Based on the lessons learned, the following can be recommended for the design and implementation of similar projects in the future: 63. Include components, which support, institutional reforms, statistical capacity building and physical infrastructure. While clients are usually keen to invest in hard infrastructure, the Bank is a trusted development partner, which has the technical strength to enhance statistical systems and methodologies for better data collection, preparation and dissemination. In the case of statistical operations, the development impact is maximized if multiple activities are strategically combined, e.g. when capacity building, methodological work and modernization of the ICT infrastructure all supported as different aspects of “statistical infrastructure�. 64. Consider the possibility to use a Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) when preparing statistical operations. The MPA allows to structure long and complex engagements as a set of smaller, linked operations (defined as phases) under one program. The Bank will approve the overall program framework, financing envelope, and the details of the first phase (in the form of an IPF or Program-for- Results (PforR)), and commit financing for subsequent phases, assuming satisfactory progress with earlier phases. 65. Empower the NSO and work closely with senior management to trigger a change of mentality and true institutional change. This includes supporting the NSO in coordinating internal and external Page 26 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) stakeholders (donors), which is also likely to contribute to future financial sustainability of the NSS. Here, the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals creates a window of opportunity to raise . additional funds for better data needed to monitor and coordinate policies around the SDGs. Page 27 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS a. NSC has capacity to produce and disseminate key statistics in line with international standards. b. Increased use of the NSC data and reports for monitoring, government policy making and development partners’ analytical and a dvisory products. c. Strengthened regulatory framework for statistical work and clarity of responsibilities of NSS. d. Strengthened feedback loop within NSS. A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: NSC has capacity to produce and disseminate key statistics in line with international standards Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Statistical Capacity of the state Amount(USD) 84.40 86.00 86.00 86.70 according to the Wolrd Bank Bulletin Board 31-Dec-2013 20-Oct-2014 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Objective/Outcome: Increased use of the NSC data and reports for monitoring, government policy making and development partners’ analytical and advisory products. Page 28 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Statistical Capacity of the state Amount(USD) 84.40 86.00 86.00 86.70 according to the Wolrd Bank Bulletin Board 31-Dec-2013 20-Oct-2014 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Objective/Outcome: Strengthened regulatory framework for statistical work and clarity of responsibilities of NSS Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Statistical Capacity of the state Amount(USD) 84.40 86.00 86.00 86.70 according to the Wolrd Bank Bulletin Board 31-Dec-2013 20-Oct-2014 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Objective/Outcome: Strengthened feedback loop within National Statistical System Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Statistical Capacity of the state Amount(USD) 84.40 86.00 86.00 86.70 according to the Wolrd Bank Bulletin Board 31-Dec-2013 20-Oct-2014 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 29 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: I. Improving organization of statistics Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Adequate statistical legislation Text The score of 20 was 22 The score = 22. 21 that covers UN fundamental established based on principles of official statistics is the U.S. Census in palce and functional. Bureau assessment.(Scores range from 0 to 24) 01-Sep-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): The score was calculated based on the end-line TASC survey results (self-evaluation) in accordance with the Bureau Census Methodology in September 2018. A significant impact on the score had pending approval of the new Law on Official Statistics. The Law was approved by the Parliament on May 29, 2019. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Mechanisms for effective inter- Text There is no such The Advisory Council The Advisory Council Mechanisms for agency coordination are mechanism. with members of the with members of the effective inter-agency established and operational. public and private public and private coordination - the sectors that advises sectors that advises Advisory Council and the NSC, meets the NSC, meets technical working regularly and works regularly and works groups (TWG) under Page 30 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) effectively. effectively. all 4 project components - are established, well- functioning and meet regularly. 01-Sep-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): The Advisory Council meets regularly (at least twice a year). TWGs for all 4 project components function effectively and meet regularly to support the efficient implementation of project activities. TWGs have been especially active in advancing the development of the draft Law “On Official Statistics�, ICT assessment, facilitation of TP -implemented activities and review of the produced methodologies. Cooperation between NSC and MDAs improved, NSC signed 9 MoUs with concerned MDAs. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion User satisfaction surveys are Text 25% User satisfaction User satisfaction 38% conducted regularly, user surveys are conducted surveys are conducted satisfaction rates have annually; user annually; user increased by 40% at the end of satisfaction rates have satisfaction rates have the project. increased by 40% increased by 40% compared to the compared to the baseline. baseline. 01-Sep-2016 09-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): 511 respondents participated in the endline user satisfaction survey. User satisfaction rate at project completion reached 38%, which is 41% increase compared to the baseline value of 25% (reweighted using number of participants) Page 31 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Component: II. Strengthening technological capacity, ICT technologies, upgrading and expanding statistical infrastructure Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion IT capacity for operations is Text Practically all IT IT capacity (hardware IT capacity (hardware The procured ICT adequate and maintained systems and and software) for and software) for equipment is equipment are operations is operations is operational and outdated. adequate and adequate and adequately maintained. maintained. maintained. 31-Aug-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Project-procured and installed computers, servers, data storages, printing facilities, tablets, smartphones and other ICT equipment is marinated in the central and regional statistical offices. Additionally, using savings, the project procured 15 tablets to facilitate the collection of data on mutual trade between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan as part of the EAEU agreement with the pilot data collection initiated in July 2018. Furthermore, the accumulated savings were utilized to co-finance the renovation of the local area network (LAN). Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Printing facility is adequate for Text Printing facility is Printing facility is Printing facility is Printing facility is production of the NSC outdated adequate for adequate for adequate for publications production of NSC production of NSC production of NSC publications publications publications. 167 publications (6287 copies) were published in 2017 (100% coverage of printing needs) and Page 32 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 235 publications (8007 copies) - in 2018. 01-Sep-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: III. Modernizing production and dissemination of statistical data Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Compliance with Text Limited compliance NSC is in full NSC is in full All methodologies (6 internationally accepted with internationally compliance with the compliance with the approved and 1 draft), standards and classifications accepted standards internationally internationally instructions and and classifications. accepted standards accepted standards classifications revised and classifications and classifications or developed under the project fully correspond to international standards. 31-Aug-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Adoption of the electronic data Text no regular electronic Electronic data Electronic data Adaptation of the collection is adopted collection is adopted electronic data Page 33 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) collection data collection and used. and used. collection is underway. NSC has already been using e- data collection and processing for: “1- invest�, “financial and economic (micro) activities�, “1-labour� and "1-F- Report on the main financial indicators of the enterprise� forms, household budget and labor forces surveys and price data. E-data processing module development by the NSC in collaboration with the Norway Stat project is underway. 31-Aug-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): E-data processing module is developed by the NSC in collaboration with the Norway Stat project. Under the KGSTAT project, NSC undertook a study trip to Finstat on technical specifications and the system development, as a whole. Introduction of the e-data collection system was done on a pilot basis using three forms of statistical reporting, including “1 -invest�, “financial and economic (micro) activities�, “1-labour� and "1-F- Report on the main financial indicators of the enterprise� forms. E -data collection of the household budget and labor forces surveys is conducted using tablets and CAPI technologies (Survey Solution) in all oblasts and cities of the country. Price data collection for CPI and other price indices is conducted using smartphones and respective software allowing having Page 34 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) timely price data. Draft ToRs for development of the automated system of consumer price index calculation has been prepared using international expertise. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Data quality assurance Text there is no state of the Data quality assurance Data quality assurance NSC worked on the framework and quality art QAF framework and quality framework and quality development of the assurance is established and assurance working assurance working data quality assurance functions. group is established group is established framework in and functioning. (Data and functioning. (Data collaboration with the errors are reduced errors are reduced Twinning Partner and regular reviews and regular reviews (including Italy Stat) are conducted). are conducted). and NorwayStat, in particularly the description of current business processes throughout the entire NSC structure (including regional statistical units) in accordance with the UNECE’s Generic Statistical Business Process Model (GSBPM), one of the key standards for statistical modernization, is completed. Data quality assurance Page 35 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) working group is functioning on regular basis and consists of all heads of departments and NSC leadership. NSC has been working on improvement of data quality assurance principles. 31-Aug-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Establishment and proper Text Existing statistical Statistical registers are Statistical registers are Methodological updates of statistical registers registers lack established and established and provisions on compliance with the regularly updated. regularly updated. statistical accounting international “General provisions on statistical standards statistical units used in the Kyrgyz statistical system� developed in accordance with the UNECE Guidelines on Statistical Business Registers. NSC has been working on updating of registers Page 36 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) with respective government agencies. 01-Sep-2016 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Statistical registers are under revision to correspond to international standards. NSC has developed a technical manual (methodological provisions) and recommendations on statistical accounting “General provisions on statistical units used in the Kyrgyz statistical system�. The statistical model register improved in two main areas: 1) analysis of the legal, operatio nal and accounting structure of enterprises to define statistical units; 2) interdepartmental cooperation with State Tax Service, State Customs Service and ICT Committee to ensure NSC’s access to administrative data for feature and condition verification purposes. For further implementation, NSC has been working with state agencies on establishment of a joint database between the concerned agencies and departments to facilitate the data exchange process. Component: IV. Strengthening statistical intellectual and human capacity Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Improved specialized Text there is limited Sufficient number of Sufficient number of Over 80% of the core knowledge of the core staff. number of staff with core staff specialized core staff specialized NSC staff received sufficient knowledge in all areas of in all areas of training and improved in areas of census/survey census/survey professional census/survey data collection data collection data knowledge in their collection, analysis, collection, analysis, collection, analysis, respective areas of evaluation, and evaluation, and evaluation, and expertise. dissemination. dissemination. dissemination. 31-Aug-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 37 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion HR management framework Text There is no properly Management Management Mentorship program established and functions functioning HR framework for human framework for human (approved in 2017), management resources (including resources (including operational HRMIS, HR framework that recruitment, training recruitment, training strategy (approved in includes recruitment, programs, and programs, and January 2019), training programs, and performance performance Probation Manual performance management) is in management) is in Guide and Instruction management. place and functioning place and functioning on HR Record well. well. Management (approved in November 2018). 31-Aug-2015 23-Jun-2015 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): HR management framework is established and described in the HR strategy, which was revised based on the international expertise and approved in January 2019. Component: V. Project management A. ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PDO Objective/Outcome 1 NSC has capacity to produce and disseminate key statistics in line with international standards. Page 38 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Statistical Capacity of the state according to the World Bank Bulletin Outcome Indicators Board 1. Adequate statistical legislation that covers UN fundamental principles of official statistics is in place and functional. 2. Mechanisms for effective inter-agency coordination are established and operational. 3. User satisfaction surveys are conducted regularly, user satisfaction rates have increased by 40% at the end of the project. 4. IT capacity for operations is adequate and maintained 5. Compliance with internationally accepted standards and Intermediate Results Indicators classifications 6. Adoption of the electronic data collection 7. Data quality assurance framework and quality assurance is established and functions. 8. Establishment and proper updates of statistical registers. 9. Improved specialized knowledge of the core staff. 10. HR management framework established and functions. 11. Printing facility is adequate for production of the NSC publications. Component 1: 1. Law on Official Statistics developed and changes in 25 acting laws introduced. 2. Advisory Council is established, well-functioning and meet regularly. Key Outputs by Component 3. Strengthened relationships with data users and producers. (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 4. Feedback mechanisms are established and operational (survey, TWG, mobile app, etc.). Component 2: 1. The procured ICT equipment is adequately maintained. 2. Printing facility is adequate for production of NSC publications. Page 39 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) Component 3: 3. All revised or developed methodologies and classifications under the project correspond to international standards. 4. Adaptation of the electronic data collection is in place. 5. Data quality assurance framework development initiated. 6. Methodological provisions on statistical accounting “General provisions on statistical units used in the Kyrgyz statistical system� developed and statistical model register improved. Component 4: 7. over 80% of the core NSC staff received hands-on training and improved specialized knowledge. HR management framework established and Mentorship Policy approved. Objective/Outcome 2 Increased use of the NSC data and reports for monitoring, government policy making and development partners’ analytical and advisory products. Statistical Capacity of the state according to the World Bank Bulletin Outcome Indicators Board 1. Mechanisms for effective inter-agency coordination are established and operational. 2. User satisfaction surveys are conducted regularly, user satisfaction rates have increased by 40% at the end of the project. Intermediate Results Indicators 3. IT capacity for operations is adequate and maintained 4. Establishment and proper updates of statistical registers. 5. Improved specialized knowledge of the core staff. 6. HR management framework established and functions. 7. Printing facility is adequate for production of the NSC publications. Component 1: Key Outputs by Component 1. Advisory Council is established, well-functioning and meet (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) regularly. Page 40 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 2. Strengthened relationships with data users and producers. 3. Feedback mechanisms are established and operational (survey, TWG, mobile app, etc.). Component 2: 4. The procured ICT equipment is adequately maintained. 5. Printing facility is adequate for production of NSC publications. Component 4: 6. over 80% of the core NSC staff received hands-on training and improved specialized knowledge. HR management framework established and Mentorship Policy approved. Objective/Outcome 3 Strengthened regulatory framework for statistical work and clarity of responsibilities of NSS Statistical Capacity of the state according to the World Bank Bulletin Outcome Indicators Board Adequate statistical legislation that covers UN fundamental principles Intermediate Results Indicators of official statistics is in place and functional. Component 1: Law on Official Statistics developed and changes in 25 Key Outputs by Component acting laws introduced. (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 3) Objective/Outcome 4 Strengthened feedback loop within NSS Statistical Capacity of the state according to the World Bank Bulletin Outcome Indicators Board 1. Mechanisms for effective inter-agency coordination are established Intermediate Results Indicators and operational. Page 41 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 2. User satisfaction surveys are conducted regularly, user satisfaction rates have increased by 40% at the end of the project. Component 1: 1. Advisory Council is established, well-functioning and meet regularly. Key Outputs by Component 2. Strengthened relationships with data users and producers. (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 4) 3. Feedback mechanisms are established and operational (survey, TWG, mobile app, etc.). 4. 9 MoUs between the NSC and institutional data providers signed. Page 42 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) Component 1 0.20 0.17 8 Component 2 1.00 1.01 40 Component 3 0.70 0.70 28 Component 4 0.30 0.25 12 Component 5 0.30 0.33 12 Total 2.50 2.46 100 Page The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) ANNEX 3. THEORY OF CHANGE Page 44 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) ANNEX 4: LIST OF TRAINING AND STUDY VISIT ACTIVITIES PROVIDED BY THE PROJECT During the project lifetime a total of 25 local training activities and several capacity building study visit activities were provided to NSC staff at the central and regional levels. Local training activities focusing on regulatory and administrative arrangements covered the following topics: 1. Improvement of knowledge on regulatory acts for heads of territorial state statistical bodies 2. Improvement of knowledge in the framework of the law on state and municipal service for heads of territorial bodies of state statistics 3. Statistical capacity building in the field of HRM 4. Improving the HRM Strategy and assisting the NSC in developing a sectoral training program for all levels of state statistics 5. Preparatory stage for the transition to an electronic personnel accounting system integrated into the Unified Personnel Accounting System (Infocom) 6. Study of changes on the organization and generation of government procurement reports and the state property management fund 7. “The qualitative use of statistics in public decision-making� Local training activities focusing on improving methodological skills covered the following topics: 8. Organization of observance over consumer prices in new localities - Stage 1 and Stage 2 9. Introduction to the updated consumer set, peculiarities of the selection of new goods and services 10. Mutual trade within the EAEU 11. Study of tools of organizing and conducting sampling on the assessment of supply and use of products of crop and livestock products in farms by the items of Food Balance 12. CAPI technology in an integrated survey of household and labor budgets 13. In-depth capabilities of the Survey Solutions system in managing the CAPI data flows of the Integrated Household Budget and Labor Force Survey 14. Additional functionality of the Survey Solutions system; data collection methodology for calculation additional indicators on the Sustainable Development and Food Security Goals 15. Statistics of finance and fixed assets 16. Statistics of foreign investments in accordance with updated standards of the Balance of Payments Manual 17. Seminar on social statistics (education, culture, housing stock, injuries) 18. Seminar on the promotion of the law on official statistics of the Kyrgyz Republic 19. Maintenance and updating of the Unified State Register of Statistical Data 20. Study of the methods of calculating the indices of average prices and the physical volume of exports and imports, software for calculating the monthly indices of average prices and physical volume on the example of the Republic of Kazakhstan 21. Study of methods for training and development of methodological guidelines on the experience of Rosstat 22. Training of the Chuy-Tokmok district asset, registrars on the issue of conducting a pilot census 23. Strengthening statistical capacity in the field of HRM 24. Seminar on financial statistics for employees of territorial offices of Chui oblast and Bishkek city Page 45 of 46 The World Bank KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS (P144874) 25. “Training Workshop on Labor and Employment Statistics (on module Employment and Unemployment) of an integrated sample survey of household budgets and labor force� Capacity building study visit activities provided under the Twinning Partnership to the NSC staff at the central level: a) Improvement of methodological skills: 1. SNA – non-observed economy. Czech Statistical Office experience. 2. SNA - Wealth accounts. Destatis experience. 3. SNA - Supply & Use Tables, R&D, Financial Accounts. Czech Statistical Office experience. 4. SNA - FISIM and output of Central Bank. Destatis experience. 5. Statistical Capacity Training provided by Destatis. 6. Price Statistics. Statistics Finland experience. 7. SNA - Sector Accounts. Czech Statistical Office experience. b) Capacity building in HR, regulatory, management and administrative fields: 8. Quality Management. ISTAT experience. 9. Project Management. KAZSTAT Project experience. 10. Legal Framework Development. Study visit to Destatis. 11. HR Personnel accounting system. ISTAT experience. 12. User relations policy. Destatis experience. 13. Human Resource Management. Rosstat experience. . i World Bank. 2013. Kyrgyz - Country partnership strategy for the period FY14-17 (English), p.22. Washington DC ; World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/480301468278104652/Kyrgyz-Country-partnership- strategy-for-the-period-FY14-17 ii http://datatopics.worldbank.org/statisticalcapacity/SCIdashboard.aspx iii The fact that the Law on official statistics although finalized during the project implementation, but approved after project was closed, has impacted the end score of the indicator, which was calculated based on the results of the TASC self-assessment carried out in September 2018. The end score measuring legal environment is equal to 21, which is 1.0-point improvement from the baseline value (the indicator was expected to improve by 2.0 points). In its turn the development and finalization of the draft law on official statistics was delayed until the late project stage due to re-tendering of the twinning partnership consultancy, which had to provide international expertise during the law development process. Page 46 of 46