Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004489 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT ON A LOAN FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT (IBRD-78180) IN THE AMOUNT OF US$88.82 MILLION AND ON A GRANT FROM GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY (TF-95549) IN THE AMOUNT OF US$16.69 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF INDIA FOR THE SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT (SUTP) MARCH 25, 2019 Transport Global Practice South Asia Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective March 7, 2019) Currency Unit = Indian Rupee (INR) INR 70.28 = US$1 US$1.39 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR April 1–March 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic AFCS Automatic Fare Collection System AVL Automatic Vehicle Location AVLS Automatic Vehicle Location System AICTSL Atal Indore City Transport Service Limited BRT Bus Rapid Transit BRTS Bus Rapid Transit System CCTV Closed Circuit Television CEPT Centre for Environmental Planning and Technology DPR Detailed Project Report EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return EoP End-of-project GEF Global Environment Facility GEO Global Environment Objective GHG Greenhouse Gas GoI Government of India GPRS General Packet Radio Service HDBRTSCo Hubli-Dharwad Bus Rapid Transit System Company ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communication Technology IRR Internal Rate of Return ITS Intelligent Transport System IUT Institute of Urban Transport JNNURM Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission KMC Knowledge Management Centre KOTI Korean Transport Institute KSRTC Karnataka State Road Transport Corporation LTA Land Transport Academy LUTP Leaders in Urban Transport Planning M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MoHUA Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs MoUD Ministry of Urban Development MRT Mass Rapid Transit NGO Nongovernmental Organization NMT Nonmotorized Transport NPTH National Public Transport Helpline NPV Net Present Value NRDA Naya Raipur Development Authority NURM National Urban Renewal Mission NUTP National Urban Transport Policy PAD Project Appraisal Document PBS Public Bike Sharing PCMC Pimpri Chinchwad Municipal Corporation PDO Project Development Objective PIA Project Implementing Agency PIS Passenger Information System PIU Project Implementing Unit PMC Project Management Consultant PMU Project Management Unit PMPML Pune Mahanagar Parivahan Mahamandal Limited RoB Rail-over-Bridge SPV Special Purpose Vehicle SUTP Sustainable Urban Transport Project TMICC Traffic Management and Information Control Centre ToD Transit-oriented Development UITP International Association of Public Transport UMTA Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority UNDP United Nations Development Programme UTF Urban Transport Fund Regional Vice President: Hartwig Schafer Country Director: Junaid Kamal Ahmad Senior Global Practice Director: Guangzhe Chen Practice Manager: Shomik Raj Mehndiratta Task Team Leader(s): Nupur Gupta ICR Main Contributor: Nupur Gupta TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................................1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ...................................................................6 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ................................................................................................................... 6 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) ........................................... 10 II. OUTCOME ................................................................................................................................ 11 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ...................................................................................................................... 11 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ............................................................................................... 11 C. EFFICIENCY ...................................................................................................................................... 15 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ........................................................................... 16 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY).................................................................................... 16 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME............................................. 17 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ............................................................................................ 17 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ..................................................................................... 18 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ............... 20 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ................................................................... 20 B. ENVIRONMENTAL SAFEGUARD, SOCIAL SAFEGUARD, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE .................. 21 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ..................................................................................................................... 23 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ............................................................................................... 24 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................... 26 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................................ 28 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ...................................... 40 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................................ 43 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................... 44 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER, AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ................ 50 ANNEX 6. GHG EMISSIONS ANALYSIS ................................................................................................ 58 ANNEX 7. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDO ..................................................................................................... 66 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P110371 Sustainable Urban Transport Project Country Financing Instrument India Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Related Projects Relationship Project Approval Product Line Supplement P100589-Sustainable 10-Dec-2009 Global Environment Project Urban Transport (GEF) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Atal Indore City Transport Services Ltd, Hubli Dharwad BRTS Company, Karnataka State Road Transport Republic of India Corporation, Ministry of Urban Development, Naya Raipur Development Authority, Pimpri Chinchwad Municipal Corporation, Mysuru City Corporation Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The project#s development objective (PDO) is to promote environmentally sustainable urban transport in India and to improve the usage of environment-friendly transport modes through demonstration projects in selected cities. Page 1 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) PDO as stated in the legal agreement The project's development objective (PDO) is to promote environmentally sustainable transport nationally and to improve the usage of environment-friendly transport modes through demonstration projects in selected cities. FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing P110371 IBRD-78180 105,230,000 88,821,782 88,821,782 P100589 TF-95549 18,450,000 16,694,440 16,694,440 Total 123,680,000 105,516,222 105,516,222 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 221,170,000 213,160,000 213,160,000 Total 221,170,000 213,160,000 213,160,000 Total Project Cost 344,850,000 318,676,222 318,676,222 KEY DATES Project Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing P110371 10-Dec-2009 03-May-2010 28-Jun-2013 30-Nov-2014 31-Mar-2018 Page 2 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 20-Dec-2010 7.00 Change in Disbursements Arrangements 31-Dec-2012 15.89 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Financing Plan Change in Implementation Schedule 25-Jun-2015 36.58 Change in Implementing Agency Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Financing Plan Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Disbursements Arrangements Change in Institutional Arrangements Other Change(s) 17-Nov-2015 41.32 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Implementation Schedule 06-Mar-2018 76.76 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Reallocation between Disbursement Categories KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 31-May-2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 02 12-Dec-2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory 7.00 03 04-Jun-2011 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 7.53 04 31-Dec-2011 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 13.12 Page 3 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) 05 07-Jul-2012 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 15.89 06 30-Dec-2012 Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 15.89 07 31-Mar-2013 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 20.16 08 23-Sep-2013 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 21.84 09 28-Dec-2013 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 26.36 10 19-Apr-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 28.37 11 12-Oct-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 30.79 12 22-Jan-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 33.34 Moderately 13 21-May-2015 Moderately Unsatisfactory 36.58 Unsatisfactory Moderately 14 08-Sep-2015 Moderately Unsatisfactory 41.32 Unsatisfactory 15 31-Dec-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 42.54 16 13-Jun-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 47.65 17 01-Sep-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 47.65 18 01-Mar-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 51.24 Moderately 19 10-May-2017 Moderately Unsatisfactory 57.99 Unsatisfactory Moderately 20 14-Sep-2017 Moderately Unsatisfactory 65.50 Unsatisfactory Moderately 21 15-Mar-2018 Moderately Satisfactory 76.76 Unsatisfactory SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Transportation 100 Urban Transport 100 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Page 4 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) Finance 6 Finance for Development 6 Housing Finance 6 Urban and Rural Development 19 Urban Development 19 Urban Infrastructure and Service Delivery 13 Urban Planning 6 Environment and Natural Resource Management 74 Climate change 50 Mitigation 50 Environmental Health and Pollution Management 24 Air quality management 8 Water Pollution 8 Soil Pollution 8 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Isabel M. Guerrero Hartwig Schafer Country Director: N. Roberto Zagha Junaid Kamal Ahmad Senior Global Practice Director: John Henry Stein Guangzhe Chen Practice Manager: Michel Audige Shomik Raj Mehndiratta Task Team Leader(s): Ke Fang Nupur Gupta ICR Contributing Author: Nupur Gupta Page 5 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Country and Sector Issues at the Time of Appraisal (2009) 1. By 2009, at the time of appraisal, India’s continuing urbanization and surging economic growth had led to rise in ownership and use of motorized vehicles across cities and towns, in particular, motorized two-wheelers. In many Indian cities where walking, cycling, and use of buses had traditionally dominated, the share of the use of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and, more recently, private cars was increasing dramatically. At the same time, there was a large number of cities which did not have access to organized public transport. According to a study by the Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD) in 2008,1 only 20 cities of a total of 87 cities with a population of more than 0.5 million had any organized public transport. The attention had thus far remained on the larger-size cities, with midsize cities in the 0.5–4.0 million population size category typically having low public transport mode shares of 9–13 percent. 2. Urban transport problems. The changes in travel patterns led to a very wide range of consequences including greater traffic congestion, increased air pollution, increased travel time, more hazards, and impedances for pedestrians, all disproportionately affecting the poor, and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It was projected that if the current urbanization and motorization trends continued, GHG emissions from urban transport could be 8–10 times higher than the then-current level by 2030. 3. Urban transport institutions. Institutional arrangements for urban transport in India are highly fragmented, and sometimes overlapping. The key issue lay in the fact that there were no effective mechanisms for coordinating the national, state, and municipal actors. In addition, systematic procedures and technical guidelines for planning, preparing, appraising, monitoring, and evaluating urban transport investments, especially large-scale projects, were not well established at either the national or state level. 4. National urban transport policy and programs. MoUD, now the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), had responded with the National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP), issued in April 2006. The policy put forward a vision for urban transport in India that focuses on people, not vehicles. The principal mechanism to incentivize local acceptance of the NUTP was the National Urban Renewal Mission (NURM), a national program which provided funds to preselected cities to cover 35–80 percent of their urban infrastructure development costs. The funding came with requirements to implement a number of reforms. It was recognized that limited institutional and staff capacity in urban transport at both national and local levels was a major constraint to the effective implementation of the new policy and the national program. 5. India-Global Environment Facility (GEF)-World Bank-United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Sustainable Urban Transport Program. With support from GEF, the World Bank, and UNDP, MoUD developed an India-GEF-World Bank-UNDP Sustainable Urban Transport Program. The aim was to strengthen national and local governments’ capacity in urban transport planning and management in a 1 Study on Traffic and Transportation Policies and Strategies in Urban Areas in India, MoUD, 2008. Page 6 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) more integrated and comprehensive manner. The Sustainable Urban Transport Project (SUTP) Program would essentially consist of two parts: (a) Part I, to be supported by UNDP (with a GEF grant), would include a number of national-level capacity-building initiatives2 and (b) Part II, to be supported by the World Bank (with a GEF grant and an IBRD loan), would include (i) a series of capacity-building initiatives which would be implemented by MoUD and (ii) midsize investment projects with demonstration potential in selected states and cities with funding from NURM. The World Bank would be the leading GEF agency for this program and be responsible for quality assurance for the entire program. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 6. The project planned to promote environmentally friendly urban transport nationally and increase the use of environmentally friendly urban transport modes in Indian cities, thereby reducing GHG emissions compared to what they would have been without the project. The project would achieve this by (a) improving the ability of institutions and individuals through training and hand-holding to plan, design, and deliver urban transport that is more environmentally friendly; (b) implementing projects in selected cities to demonstrate good design and practice in environmentally friendly urban transport measures including Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Intelligent Transport System (ITS), and Nonmotorized Transport (NMT). The improved planning and operations of the bus services through the BRT and ITS measures would attract and retain ridership in the project cities, thereby bringing about a mode shift from modes that are less environmentally friendly. This would result in reduced fuel consumption and GHG emissions for the same quantum of travel. It would also yield benefits to the users of the public transport in terms of time savings, increased travel and work opportunities, and better comfort and conditions. The demonstration impact, amplified by the dissemination measures to raise awareness, would lead to replication by other Indian cities based on the positive experience of the project cities. Table 1. Theory of Change: SUTP Component Outputs Outcomes Longer Term Outcomes Capacity Development Individuals in city and state Number of cities that Improved knowledge and Assistance institutions trained to plan, develop an identifiable capacity among urban - Training of target design and deliver urban transport planning transport administrators institutions and environmentally-friendly process increases. and practitioners individuals in LUTP urban transport Increased capacity for Improved understanding - Development of guidance documents environmentally friendly and prioritization of Plans, policies and for operationalizing and sustainable urban environmentally friendly guidelines to operationalize reforms transport at city, state, and urban transport modes - and manage sustainable Project preparation national levels. support transport systems at city, - Development of state and national levels National Urban Transport Research Program - GHG emissions study 2Based on the latest guidance, this Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) does not cover the UNDP-supported Component 1A of SUTP as this was not part of the project description in the legal agreements. Page 7 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) Component Outputs Outcomes Longer Term Outcomes City Demonstration Bus Rapid Transit Systems Use of environmentally Demonstration cities Projects (BRTS) constructed and friendly transport modes become urban transport - Designs prepared and operational (Pimpri- increases in the models for other cities to demo projects Chinchwad and Naya demonstration cities; shift follow. implemented (Pimpri- Raipur) from personal modes to Chinchwad and Naya Other cities invest in and environmentally friendly Raipur BRTS; ITS in ITS implemented for public implement more transport modes. Mysore and Indore; transport (Mysore and environmentally friendly NMT in Pune and Naya Indore) and operational Mode share in the transport modes. Raipur) demonstration cities - Construction Kilometers of NMT Improved economic becomes more supervision, project implemented (Pune and growth of the sustainable. management support Naya Raipur) demonstration cities. - Studies on Transit- GHG emissions and fuel oriented Development Transit-oriented consumption are less than (ToD) and Regional Development (ToD) they would have been Mobility Plan (RMP) in principals incorporated in without the project. Naya Raipur Naya Raipur Masterplan; - Studies on Accessibility, RMP developed Parking, communication and Increased public awareness outreach in Pimpri- of public transport; Parking Chinchwad policy prepared; - Study on Operations Routes rationalized in Plan in Mysore - M&E studies Mysore Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 7. The Project’s Development Objective (PDO) was to promote environmentally sustainable urban transport nationally and to improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities. The Global Environment Objective (GEO) was identical to the PDO. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 8. The PDO consisted of two main expected outcomes, (a) to promote environmentally sustainable urban transport nationally and (b) to improve the use of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities. These outcomes are linked to the two components of the project on Capacity Development Assistance and City Demonstration Projects. The indicators for assessing the achievement of the outcomes are tabulated below. Table 2. Indicators for Assessing the Achievement of Outcomes Expected Outcome Outcome Indicator The number of cities that develop an identifiable urban transport 1. To promote environmentally planning process (that is, managed by professional units of sustainable urban transport in India government, following certain procedures and guidance, and involving various level of analytical work) increases. Page 8 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) Expected Outcome Outcome Indicator Mode shares in Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, and Naya Raipur become more sustainable by project end. 2. To improve the use of environmentally An additional indicator has been added in the case of the GEO: A friendly transport modes in project cities significant amount of co-benefits are achieved as forecast transport CO2 emissions in the demonstration cities are lower than their ‘business-as-usual’ or ‘without-project’ forecasts. Components 9. The project consisted of two main components: • Component 1: Capacity Development Assistance for Urban Transport • Component 2: City Demonstration Projects 10. Component 1: Capacity Development Assistance for Urban Transport (US$7.8 million). This component would provide technical assistance to MoUD to improve national, state, and local capacity to implement the NUTP. Such assistance included (a) developing implementation strategies and plans to implement key urban transport reforms envisioned in the NUTP, (b) piloting model urban transport databases, (c) assisting cities in the identification and preparation of potential environmentally friendly urban transport investments, and (d) developing a national cooperative research program on sustainable urban transport, aiming at finding local solutions for planning, operation, and management problems encountered by local practitioners. 11. Component 2: City Demonstration Projects (US$336.8 million). This component would support high-profile demonstration projects in six participating cities in participating states that would create models of sustainable transport solutions for other Indian cities to replicate. These projects focus on four themes: (a) public transport development, (b) NMT transport development, (c) ITS, and (d) integrated land use and transport planning and ToD. The six cities, selected by the Government of India (GoI) through a competitive selection process, included Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad (in Maharashtra), Naya Raipur (in Chhattisgarh), Jalandhar (in Punjab), Indore (in Madhya Pradesh), and Mysore (in Karnataka). The planned demonstration project in these cities included the following: • NMT in Pune • BRTS in Pimpri-Chinchwad • BRTS Lite in Naya Raipur • ITS on City Bus Transport in Mysore • ITS on BRTS in Indore • NMT in Jalandhar 12. The financial structure of the project was that the World Bank loan would finance activities under Component 2 in three pilot cities (Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, and Naya Raipur), and the GEF grant would be used to finance Component 1B and project investments in the remaining two demonstration cities (Mysore and Indore) and technical assistance activities in all six cities participating in Component 2. Subsequent to negotiations, Jalandhar was dropped and did not become part of the approved project. Project costs, at the time of approval were US$348.7 million. Page 9 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) 13. The project was amended several times to accommodate new developments, such as cancellation of the Pune city demo project and inclusion of the Hubli-Dharwad BRTS and Mysore Public Bike Sharing (PBS) projects, to adjust and fine-tune results indicators and targets, to reallocate savings, and to extend project timelines to accommodate delays. It was recognized by both the client and the World Bank as early as during project design that given the project’s complexity involving multiple cities, multiple sources of funding, and implementing agencies, and the relatively nascent stage of the urban transport sector, the project would need to be able to adapt and be flexible as circumstances on the ground continued to change. 14. The main changes during implementation included the following: • Inclusion of Hubli-Dharwad as a new city to SUTP, with a comprehensive city demonstration project, including 19 km of dedicated BRT, bus terminals, a bus depot, ITS, and NMT measures, and cancellation of the Pune demo project in December 2012. Additional funds of US$8.45 million were reallocated from Pimpri-Chinchwad to Hubli-Dharwad, which did not affect the PDO or the two components but did involve changes to the Results Framework. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the loan funds (US$8.45 million) allocated to financing ITS and associated infrastructure on the remaining two BRTS corridors, passenger access improvements, and terminals, were cancelled, as they had sufficient internal resources to finance these activities; however, they remained in the project description. • Inclusion of the Mysore PBS project into SUTP as a new demo project to use the grant originally meant for Jalandhar and to expand the menu of demo projects on NMT and the dropping of the traffic signal priority from Indore’s ITS scope and addition of Automatic Vehicle Location System (AVLS) in February 2015, as they had already implemented it through their own sources. • The project was extended twice, by one year in December 2012 at the time of inclusion of Hubli-Dharwad, and the second time by 28 months in November 2015 to ensure completion of five of the six demo projects, which were critical to the achievement of the PDO. • The original PDO Indicator 1 was replaced with a new indicator ‘Number of environmentally friendly urban transport practices and approaches provided by the project that are adopted by cities’ as this was more representative of the project activities and their likely outcome under Component 1. The previous indicator was more process oriented while the new indicator was more outcome oriented. It was also difficult to measure and justify attribution given that Component 1 activities focused on mentoring support to officials on their urban transport initiatives and development of guidance documents in key areas. The end-of- project (EoP) target for PDO Indicator 2 on public transport mode share was also rationalized from a highly ambitious 50 percent to 40 percent for Naya Raipur, and in the case of Hubli- Dharwad, a clear quantitative target of 33 percent replaced the target of an ‘increase in mode share’. Changes were also made to intermediate outcome indicators in response to changes in subcomponents and activities. Page 10 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) • The GEF grant was reallocated more than once among the project implementing units (PIUs) to help increase its utilization. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Rating: High 15. The PDOs were and remain very relevant to the Indian context. The multiple pressures on India’s cities continue to grow, in particular, rapid urbanization, growth in traffic volumes and congestion, road safety, air quality, and GHG emissions. The PDOs were well aligned with the country’s and the World Bank’s programs and objectives at the time of project preparation, and now at its completion, its lessons will help develop new, strategic, and effective approaches to address these evolving issues. SUTP remained fully consistent with the India Country Partnership Framework (FY18–FY22).3 By investing in affordable and sustainable public transport services, SUTP contributed to improving the living conditions and sustainability of cities. SUTP focused on strengthening public sector institutions both by setting up new institutional structures to deliver higher-quality services (for example, Hubli Dharwad BRTS) and by establishing a series of official guidelines on urban mobility institutions like Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA), technical solutions (ToD, PBS, and ITS), and financing. The guidelines, published online and shared through prominent events like the Urban Mobility of India series, supported the dissemination of such approaches across all states and to other countries, in line with the new lighthouse program. By linking states at different stages of development and supporting the effective implementation of demonstration projects, SUTP facilitated effective exchanges across multiple states. 16. The approach of promoting and implementing environmentally sustainable urban transport modes continues to be a global good practice. While no changes in the project PDOs were necessary during implementation, the complexities of working in multiple states and changing conditions on the ground did require some modifications in design. The team, using restructurings and other means, was exceptionally responsive to the changing circumstances, while adhering to the original development objectives of the project. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Rating: Substantial 17. The PDO is to promote environmentally sustainable urban transport nationally and to improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities • Objective PDO1: to promote environmentally sustainable urban transport in India • Objective PDO2: to improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities Objective PDO1: To promote environmentally sustainable urban transport in India 18. This objective was achieved and substantially surpassed. It was addressed by the capacity development component of SUTP where a massive but structured capacity-building, knowledge 3 Report No. 126667-IN. Page 11 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) exchange, and training program was launched, targeted at institutions and individuals (officials and practitioners) that led to better understanding and technical competence, and thereby greater willingness and ability to implement environmentally sustainable urban transport. Component 1 was aimed at the national level and implemented through the following key activities: • Development of seven guidance documents covering in new areas, combined with city-level support in 20 instances (see annex 7) • Offerings of the Leaders in Urban Transport Planning (LUTP)4 program included the participation of 207 senior officials in the international offerings and a further 242 officials in the course organized in the India Chapter at Centre for Environmental Planning and Technology (CEPT) University (Ahmedabad). The India Chapter course additionally included mentoring support to the officials on a live urban transport project, policy, or program. CEPT University organized six offerings of LUTP, while one offering was also organized through the Institute of Urban Transport (IUT) toward EoP. A total of 139 projects benefited from mentoring support covering 47 cities and 29 states in the country. Table 3. PDO1 Achievement Indicator Target Achieved 16 • At least 7 projects and approaches initiated under LUTP program 5 have been successfully adopted by the cities (see annex 7). • 4 cities proceeded with various reforms (3 on UMTA and 1 on ToD) based on the support provided as part of the preparation of Number of environmentally guidance documents (see annex 7). friendly urban transport • 4 cities proceeded to implement city bus modernization programs practices and approaches 6 under the approved GEF Efficient & Sustainable City Bus project, in provided by the project that line with the preparation support extended. are adopted by cities* • MoHUA released a ToD Policy for Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Systems based on the ToD Guidance Document developed. • Demonstration impact of Pimpri-Chinchwad BRTS on twin city Pune, of Mysore ITS on Karnataka State Road Transport Corporation (KSRTC) fleet and cities such as Bangalore, and of Mysore PBS on Bangalore and other second-tier cities in Karnataka. *Revised indicator PDO1; see para 20 19. At least 16 environmentally friendly urban transport practices and approaches benefited from direct support and were taken forward by the respective national, state, and city officials. Many more were in various stages; however, only those which demonstrated achievement of significant progress were considered. The revised target of 6 was overwhelmingly achieved (see annex 7 for more details). 4 ‘Mobile Metropolises: Urban Transport Matters, An IEG Evaluation of the World Bank Group’s Support for Urban Transport’ specifically recognizes the positive impact of LUTP in developing capacity in the urban transport sector. 5 Dingra, Chavvi. 2017. Documenting Select Projects Emerging from Five Years of the Leaders in Urban Transport Planning and Management Program (LUTPM) in India (2012–2017): Final Report. Page 12 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) 20. PDO indicator 1 was modified in November 2015 at the time of the second extension to the project, as it was determined that the original indicator ‘The number of cities that develop an identifiable urban transport planning process (that is, managed by professional units of government, following certain procedures and guidance, and involving various level of analytical work) increases’ was more process oriented, difficult to measure, and not fully representative of the activities proposed under the capacity- building component. As only the indicator was modified and neither the PDO nor the target underwent a change, and the scope of the project remained unchanged, a split rating analysis may not apply. However, the fact remained that the original indicator was also achieved, given the cities highlighted above progressed on the reform agenda (4), the creation of the Hubli Dharwad BRTS Company and the ITS Cell within KSRTC, inclusion of ToD principles in the Naya Raipur Development Plan and mainstreaming of NMT design principles into the Naya Raipur Development Authority (NRDA), and so on, indicative of the creation of new systems and procedures and improved planning processes. Objective PDO2: to improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities 21. Objective PDO2 was addressed by Component 2, which consisted of six demonstration projects in the five participating cities. At approval, of the six demonstration projects, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Pune, and Naya Raipur would involve substantial works and investment supported by the IBRD loan, and therefore PDO2A specifically measured the impact in these cities. PDO2B was the additional indicator for GEO. Following approval, Pune was dropped and replaced by Hubli-Dharwad in 2012. 22. Table 4 provides the details of achievement of PDO2A and PDO2B indicators covering mode shares for (a) Pimpri-Chinchwad, (b) Naya Raipur, and (c) Hubli-Dharwad and GHG emission reductions from the project (more details are provided in annex 7). Table 4. PDO2A Achievement Original Target Revised Target Indicator Baseline (%) Actual at EoP (%) (%) (%) Pimpri-Chinchwad – Modal share by public transport 4.2 8 8 8.8 increases Naya Raipur – Public transport trip mode share between Raipur 0 50 40 42.4 and Naya Raipur increases Increase in public Hubli-Dharwad – Public 30 transport mode 33 n.a. transport mode share increases share 23. The achievement of the Objective PDO2A is rated Substantial: • The public transport mode shares have more than doubled in Pimpri-Chinchwad overachieving the set target of 8 percent. This is likely to increase further with the launch of the fourth corridor planned in April 2019. Roughly 28 percent of the shift is from personal modes. Meanwhile, not only has the user satisfaction improved but the shift from car users in the post BRT scenario shows an increasing trend from 3 percent in 2016 to 8 percent in 2017, which is promising. Page 13 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) • The public transport mode share of trips between Naya Raipur and Raipur was over 42 percent at project close, a very significant achievement given the negligible public transport available in Raipur at the start of the project and also the low levels of public transport mode share in peer cities of 10–15 percent. Within Naya Raipur, the mode share is 32 percent. The revised target of 40 percent was well achieved, but the original (rather ambitious) target of 50 percent was also substantially achieved. • The public transport mode share data are not yet available as the Hubli-Dharwad BRTS has recently been rolled out. However, preliminary surveys suggest that 18 percent of the shift to BRTS is from personalized modes of which 9 percent are car users. The user feedback is very positive, and ratings are especially high with regard to travel time savings, reliability, and facilities. Given the quality of the infrastructure and system development, the BRTS project is expected to become a role model for other Indian cities. Combined with the comprehensive upgradation of the city bus service, the public transport mode share is expected to show improvements over time. The objective of increased use of environmentally friendly transport modes may be deemed to have been substantially achieved. 24. The target for PDO indicator 2B for reductions in GHG emissions has been surpassed. Further, the demonstration impact of the Mysore ITS, Mysore PBS, and Pimpri-Chinchwad BRTS are already evident from the uptake in other cities. After the success of the Mysore ITS, KSRTC has successfully scaled up the ITS to its entire fleet of 8,000 buses, and it has acted as a role model for many of the other Indian cities that are in the process of implementing ITSs. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the successful launch of Corridors 2 and 3 has influenced its twin city Pune to now proactively start planning the BRT network in their city. In addition, the Mysore PBS is informing the launch of the system in Bangalore. Table 5. PDO2B Achievement Indicator Baseline Original Target Revised Target Actual at EoP Forecast CO2 emissions over 10 years in the cities participating in 0 128,000 128,000 312,000 Component 2 are at least 128,000 tons lower than BAU forecasts 25. The achievement of PDO2A is rated Substantial and PDO2B High, leading to an overall rating of Substantial for PDO and GEO achievement. Justification for Overall Efficacy Rating 26. The Objective PDO1 (promote environmentally sustainable urban transport in India) was fully achieved, as the range of actions and number of relevant institutions and officials reached in cities and states can be considered to have been met and exceeded expectations. All of the demonstration projects have been delivered and are either fully operational or on the verge of being so. Where the demonstrations have been operational for sufficient time to measure impacts (Naya Raipur, Pimpri- Chinchwad Corridor 3, Mysore, and Indore), improvements in use and in customer satisfaction have been achieved, and demonstration impact is strongly evident. At the time of project closing, three of the demonstration projects (Hubli-Dharwad, Pimpri-Chinchwad, and Indore) had not been completed as Page 14 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) envisaged, which is the reason that the final three ISRs rated the DO achievement as Moderately Unsatisfactory. However, the past year, since project closing, has been a defining one with all projects now complete and outcomes—though not fully realized—are clearly evident. Hence, the Efficacy Rating for Objective PDO2 (improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities) has also been fully achieved. The overall Efficacy Rating is deemed to be Substantial. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating Rating: Modest 27. A limited economic analysis was provided in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD), covering only Pimpri-Chinchwad and Pune, the latter being subsequently dropped from SUTP. The economic analysis for Pimpri-Chinchwad covered only two of the corridors and was limited by lack of data on general traffic volumes from which the main benefits would be derived (reduction in road user costs and reduction in GHG). Based on infrastructure investment of US$126.5 million and various assumptions about costs and benefits, some of which in retrospect are debatable, the analysis showed an economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of 24 percent and a net present value (NPV) of US$185 million. The EIRR of Hubli-Dharwad demo project at the design stage was estimated to be 29.5 percent with an NPV of US$448 million. However, in this evaluation the project cost was lower than the outcome and 100% of time savings were valued with work values of time. The overall EIRR of the Pimpri-Chinchwad, Naya Raipur, and Hubli- Dharwad demo projects at EoP works out to 11.2 percent with an NPV of INR 19.3 billion or US$276 million. The project continues to exhibit a positive NPV, though significantly reduced from the estimates at the start of the project. The main reasons for this are • The project costs increased by approximately 15 percent in rupee terms (though it actually declined in U.S. dollar terms by roughly 9 percent owing to the rupee depreciation)—however, the increase was not anything out of the ordinary; • The benefits begin to accrue with a lag, and in this instance, two of the major projects Hubli-Dharwad BRTS and Pimpri-Chinchwad BRTS Corridor 4 were just launched or about to be launched and so benefits had not become fully evident; and • The project experienced substantial delays in implementation in multiple cities (Pimpri-Chinchwad, Hubli-Dharwad, and Naya Raipur). These were primarily due to lengthy land acquisition processes leading to delayed availability of encumbrance- free land for works and slow progress by contractors for civil works. As a result, economic returns when discounted were much more conservative than originally estimated, for which a two-year construction period had been assumed. 28. While the positive NPV points to the positive returns from the three projects there were delays in implementation and in realizing the benefits. The efficiency is therefore rated Modest. Page 15 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 29. In summary, the rating for Relevance is High, Efficacy is Substantial, and Efficiency is Modest. The shortcomings relate entirely to the delays, which suggests that while the cities have mostly completed implementation activities, they are still in the process of incorporating the full contributions to Objective PDO2, to improve usage of environmentally friendly urban transport modes. In making the overall assessment, it is worth summarizing that SUTP has delivered a substantial national capacity-building effort in sustainable urban transport practices leading to greater awareness and more effective planning and implementation of urban mobility projects and adoption of sustainable approaches in Indian cities in various parts of the country; a body of guidance and toolkits developed which are already being used by cities for implementing their Smart City proposals and other projects; and several successful projects with demonstration impact—first Indian city with a successfully functioning ITS on their city-wide public transport system (Mysore), first Indian city with PBS scheme (Mysore), first Indian city to formally adopt ToD principles into their Development Plan and Master Plan (Naya Raipur), and the most densely trafficked BRTS in Pimpri-Chinchwad have been delivered.6 Taking all these things into account, a rating of Moderately Satisfactory is deemed appropriate. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 30. The project has benefited from the collection of gender disaggregated data through the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) studies. There is growing evidence that women are attracted to higher- quality and well-managed urban transport systems such as BRT. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the percentage of women using the BRT has increased compared to the pre-BRT services (from 33 percent to 36 percent on Corridor 2 and from 23 percent to 32 percent on Corridor 3). In Naya Raipur, the share of women passengers also has grown from 26.2 percent to 28 percent. User satisfaction surveys indicated that women particularly appreciated the less-crowded stations, security on board, and level of comfort. Other measures may take longer to show results. All bikes at the Mysore PBS are gender-neutral, but to date only 17 percent of the registered users are female. Institutional Strengthening 31. Institutional strengthening was a core part of SUTP and played out through both Components 1 and 2. The main outcomes in terms of institutional strengthening were (a) capacity building and training for more than 450 officials across India covering over 47 cities and 29 states, many of whom have proceeded to develop environmentally friendly initiatives; (b) the Guidance Manuals which provide high- quality tools for cities and institutions to develop sustainable frameworks including the hand-holding which has resulted in the UMTA Bill in Kerala state and ToD Policy at the national level as well as in Madhya 6Mobile Metropolises: Urban Transport Matters, An IEG Evaluation of the World Bank Group’s Support for Urban Transport, acknowledges ‘In both China and India, the World Bank’s attention to planning, safeguards, and full project cycle supervision were appreciated and accepted as models of good practice inviting replication.’ Page 16 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) Pradesh state; and (c) creation of an India Chapter of LUTP and development of local capacity at CEPT University and IUT. 32. Within the SUTP cities under Component 2, direct support, capacity building, and institutional strengthening for the six SUTP city PIUs have been achieved, including a very substantial amount of ‘learning by doing’. Significantly, there has been development of an ITS Cell at Mysore City Transport Division in Mysore and its mother agency KSRTC for nurturing ITS expertise and institutional memory; Hubli-Dharwad Bus Rapid Transit System Company (HDBRTSCo) was newly created and developed as the nodal entity to design, construct, and manage the BRTS in Hubli-Dharwad; in Naya Raipur, NRDA established and has been developing a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to manage the BRT Lite. Further, Naya Raipur became the first city in India to implement the ToD policy as part of its Development Plan, based directly on work done within SUTP. It also internalized the design principles for NMT planning within the city and has proceeded to scale up the accessibility interventions across the city. In Karnataka, the Directorate of Urban Land Transport (DULT) has evolved and built capacity with the delivery of the PBS project in Mysore and the BRTS in Hubli-Dharwad and is already beginning to scale up these interventions. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 33. The preparatory phase was lengthy and extensive, built on prior actions and cooperation among stakeholders and established good conditions for the project. Key factors are summarized below: • The approach of combining capacity-building and demonstration sites and of blending an IBRD loan and GEF grant was effective. The blend approach allowed ‘learning by doing’ which would reinforce the impact of the capacity building and training creating a far greater impact than if one or the other had been adopted. The capacity development of officials as well as the design and implementation of demo projects benefited from the technical assistance and exposure visits that were packaged with it. For example, in Naya Raipur, the technical assistance on ToD helped the city amend its master plan to include the principles of ToD, and the comprehensive operations study for Mysore public transport was instrumental in KSRTC’s successes with effective use of ITS for improving the routes and overall service. Similarly, the promotion and outreach consultancy was very effective in both Pimpri-Chinchwad and Hubli-Dharwad in creating awareness about the project and mitigating negative sentiments. These opportunities would have been far more limited without the ready availability of grant funding. • Adequate mitigation measures and learnings were reflected in the project design of a multicity project. Aware of the potential problems with multicity projects, substantial effort was made to establish and provide sufficient funding for an appropriate management and supervision structure. Other relevant learnings such as building on the client’s own strategies and programs, the need for strengthened national-level project management, and the involvement of professional nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), for example, EMBARQ played a key supporting role in Naya Raipur, and the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy provided valuable assistance in designing the BRT corridors of Pimpri-Chinchwad. Further, and most importantly, the client and the World Bank were fully cognizant of the likelihood of nonperformance of low commitment from demo cities and accordingly designed the project on the ‘moving train’ principle, with in-built flexibility for cancellation of nonperforming cities and inclusion of new cities (into the legal agreements) which proved extremely helpful for the project. Page 17 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) • A strong guidance structure and implementation arrangements were established for the project. This provided a solid framework for MoUD, World Bank, and demonstration city stakeholders to work together; to provide necessary oversight and guidance; and to manage the project, its quality, and administrative aspects over the project life. The Steering Committee headed by the Secretary MoUD/MoHUA and including all SUTP states and cities, Ministry of Environment and Forests, and Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) for deciding key matters and resolving issues proved particularly effective for SUTP. The difficult decisions pertaining to cancellation of Pune and inclusion of Hubli- Dharwad and Mysore ITS could be fast-tracked, as all key stakeholders were represented on the Steering Committee. • The quality of safeguards preparation affected downstream implementation. Pimpri-Chinchwad which was included into the project toward the end of the preparation cycle suffered from a rushed Resettlement Action Plan and Environmental Management Plan preparation, and this proved to be problematic during project implementation. • The scheduled closing date of November 2014 proved highly optimistic for such an ambitious project. The project included three significant infrastructure developments, two of which had very substantial land acquisition and associated social safeguards. Given the newness and complexity of the urban mobility interventions being attempted under the project, a longer implementation period would have been desirable (even the simpler GEF projects on ITS in Mysore and Indore ended up taking longer to implement than the planned scheduled date). B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 34. The key factors are summarized as follows. 35. Substantial delays were encountered in most of the demonstration cities, despite the extensive preparation and implementation management. There were multiple causes of delay including (a) protracted land acquisition and resettlement; (b) non-familiarity of PIUs with World Bank procedures and weak technical capacity for planning and implementation; (c) constant need for coordination with other key stakeholders and agencies; (d) works contractor nonperformance owing to not only poor project management and cash flow issues but also non-familiarity with modern construction designs and materials; (e) lack of familiarity with new concepts such as ITS among consultants, vendors, and clients alike; and (f) wavering commitment and priority accorded to the project at the agency level with changes in officials, and so on. These have been elaborated in the following paragraphs. • Completion of land acquisition and the associated settling of legal challenges caused extreme delay in Pimpri-Chinchwad and significant delay in Hubli-Dharwad. The issues were often exacerbated owing to outdated land records, large informal settlements, frequent litigation and court cases, and limitations in the capacity of city agencies. • The utility shifting along the main corridor in Hubli-Dharwad, covering drainage, water supply pipelines, bulk water supply, gas pipeline, and telecom chambers, as a result of the widening of the corridors, was especially laborious and time consuming. • Limited institutional and officer capacity at the PIU/project implementing agency (PIA) level was a contributing factor to these delays. This relates both to staffing and the institutional Page 18 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) capacity to plan and implement projects and take timely decisions in response to new developments. Key areas included (a) timely development and completion of designs, including understanding stakeholder needs, and need for rework; (b) limited or no experience in World Bank procedures; (c) quality of procurement, owing to lack of familiarity with either World Bank procedures or sophisticated procurements; in the instance of Indore ITS, it took three rounds of rebidding before the award could be finalized; (d) poor systems and capacity to manage quality and timely completion of works contracts; and (e) timely completion of land acquisition and resettlement of project affected people. Problems were typically related to delays in filling posts, staff assigned on part-time basis, overloading, frequent staff turnover, and management’s low priority to attend to these issues and processes. • Contractor nonperformance and weak project management plagued projects in Pimpri- Chinchwad, Hubli-Dharwad, and Naya Raipur. In the case of Empire Estate flyover in Pimpri- Chinchwad, without the strenuous efforts of MoHUA/PMU and the World Bank in escalating issues, the outcome may likely have been different. The said contractor was under severe financial distress and had clearly underbid. In Naya Raipur and Hubli-Dharwad, this played out differently as the size of the contracts was much smaller. This approach was not very successful either as the local contractors were less exposed to latest designs and materials and had considerable difficulty in completing the modern designs of the BRT stations, terminals, depots, and footpaths. • Coordination with other key stakeholders tended to be time consuming and was often responsible for delays in finalizing designs, completing implementation, and finalizing operating arrangements across cities. The agreements with regard to the rolling stock designs between the twin cities, Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, took time, and similar delays were encountered for ITS. In Naya Raipur, the BRT pickup point in central Raipur at the railway station, which is now a model for intermodal integration took almost three years to agree with the Railways; HDBRTSCo had to coordinate continuously with North West Karnataka Road Transport Corporation (NWKRTC), the public transport operator, first on the designs and later on the operations plan and operating arrangements. Coordination with Railways in all three BRT projects for approval of rail-over-bridge (RoB) designs and implementation could have been quite protracted but for the facilitation by the national PMU/PMC. Finally, the coordination with Traffic Police, though critical for the success of the BRT, has been slow and difficult for the agencies, as it is not an obvious stakeholder for them. • The Public Interest Litigations filed against the BRTS in Indore and Corridor 1 in Pimpri- Chinchwad led to a stalling of those projects for long periods, resulting in consequent delays in the ITS project in Indore and in the launch of the larger system in Pimpri. • Financing commitments were made from the GoI under the previous national scheme NURM, which would finance part of the project cost. These commitments were generally honored barring some issues encountered by Naya Raipur and Indore. NURM commitments were particularly problematic, especially post-2014 once it closed, and the delay in project activities meant that the funds had not been drawn down in full. Page 19 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) • The experience with implementing and operationalizing ITS was especially problematic mainly because of the relative inexperience of consultants and vendors with the bus sector in India. In Mysore, the solution took almost three years to achieve operational acceptance as there were many issues with both the hardware and software but also because the PIA underestimated the effort involved in mainstreaming the new system within its organization. Other agencies such as Pune Mahanagar Parivahan Mahamandal Limited (PMPML) and NRDA are still developing their understanding of the system and how to make the best use of it. 36. There was a lack of appreciation of the true cost of delay, so the focus was simply on achieving completion. There was little apparent consideration of the true cost of delay to the project. While the visible costs of delay are cost escalation, penalties, and so on, the true costs of delay are far greater. They consist of two main items: (a) the loss of the benefits which the project was expected to achieve over the period of the delay and (b) the lost ground in achieving a shift to environmentally friendly modes, as the negative trends continue apace and become further entrenched in the absence of the expected measures. Had these cost and economic consequences been better understood, it could have changed the response and outcomes. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) Rating: Substantial M&E Design Rating: Substantial 37. The project provided for a comprehensive M&E framework over its lifetime. It was ensured that M&E should be performed over the project life. To this end, necessary budgets were provisioned for each demonstration city. 38. The Results Framework was comprehensive and appropriate, given the multicomponent and multicity nature of the project. However, in a few instances, the indicator and/or the targets specified were less appropriate and/or tended to be ambitious. For example, in the instance of PDO1, the indicator was not fully representative of the project activities under Component 1. In addition, the target of 50 percent public transport mode share for trips between Raipur and Naya Raipur was rather ambitious, in a context where most midsize cities had limited or no public transport systems. As the value of M&E in a relatively nascent sector was recognized and seeded into the project, despite some shortcomings in the results framework, the M&E design is rated substantial. M&E Implementation Rating: Substantial 39. Almost all of the cities implemented comprehensive M&E studies over the project life. Baselines were established, and M&E reports were submitted at multiple stages, allowing tracking during the project life. The M&E studies sought to deepen the cities’ understanding of the project performance, users Page 20 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) and nonusers in their city, perceptions and opinions, and areas in which improvements are needed. A particular effort was made to include a study of gender-related aspects. The PMU/PMC and the World Bank provided review support. This ensured higher quality of work and an opportunity to discuss mitigation measures and improvement strategies with the city and also facilitated sharing of information across cities. 40. Adjustments were made to the Results Framework indicators in response to changes in the project, such as reflecting the changes to the participating cities (Pune excluded and Pimpri-Chinchwad and Mysore PBS added) or to fine-tune them for better reporting. However, in some cases, changes might have been carried out earlier in the project. M&E Utilization Rating: Substantial 41. The M&E process was used to support technical stabilization where postimplementation issues arose. The M&E process was used to track technical performance of the ITS in Mysore, which proved valuable when problems emerged with the on-bus units. The root cause analysis performed strengthened the position of the PIA to direct the vendor to implement remedial measures, which were achieved and led to better technical stability. A similar approach was taken in the Mysore PBS, where a root cause analysis supported problem-solving related to significant nonfunctioning of ports at docking stations, following which availability was restored to >90 percent. In Naya Raipur, M&E was instrumental in evaluating the performance of the service, building new stations, and revising the service plan to reduce delays and improve travel time performance. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the work was effectively used to make a stronger case for improved intersection designs and passenger access and addressing bus bunching issues through traffic signal phasing redesign. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 42. In view of the above, the overall rating is Substantial. B. ENVIRONMENTAL SAFEGUARD, SOCIAL SAFEGUARD, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 43. Environmental safeguards. The World Bank team undertook an active supervision role, providing hands-on support to the national PMC and PIAs throughout the implementation period. Though most of the BRT construction activities have been completed, there remain some mitigation measures which are still under implementation at project closure. These include installation of noise barriers on Corridor 4 in Pimpri-Chinchwad; and in Hubli-Dharwad, there were some delays in implementing the landscaping/plantations works on the median of the BRT corridor as well as the Green BRT Plan (initially prepared to respond to an NGO complaint but later helped the project integrate environmental aspects into project activities) and implementing the Rayapur tank mitigation works to increase storage capacity. The overall implementation of environmental safeguard measures has been rated Moderately Satisfactory due to these pending issues, though they are inextricably linked to the overall delays experienced with the works contracts. The rating also reflects improvements and progress made in both cities on overall environmental, health, and safety management, meeting key agreed actions on environmental safeguards and implementing good practices such as decentralized wastewater treatment Page 21 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) systems, noise barriers, and fire and worker safety measures at bus depots in Hubli-Dharwad and extensive plantation undertaken in Naya Raipur subproject. 44. Social safeguards. The OP 4.12 - Involuntary Resettlement was triggered, and land acquisition related impacts include 75 ha of private land affecting more than 11,000 landowners including physical displacement of 425 families. In addition, about 500 tenants and informal settlers were also affected. At the time of project appraisal, impacts were envisaged for only about 1,200 persons in Pimpri-Chinchwad. 45. The impacts in Naya Raipur were implemented in a compliant manner by providing alternative housing in a government scheme to four displaced families and allotting shops on rental basis to three affected small keepers. In the case of Pimpri-Chinchwad, the impacts include private land acquisition from more than 10,000 landowners and displacement of 400 families including 144 informal settlers. The implementation of this subproject faced several challenges such as inordinate delays in resettlement, payment of compensation, prolonged court cases, longer stay of displaced families in transit camp, land hand over to contractors, and so on. The commitment and capacity of the Pimpri Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC) was an issue throughout the project implementation and the safeguards management for OP 4.12 remained Unsatisfactory or Moderately Unsatisfactory for a period of three years, during July 2015–March 2018, due to non-compliances with payment of compensation and delays in shifting of displaced families. In the case of those affected by land acquisition, the compensation for about 80 percent of 10,000 affected landowners were deposited in the courts for want of ownership documents. 46. In the case of Hubli-Dharwad, the impacts include land acquisition of 30 acres affecting 1,043 landowners and 500 tenants/informal settlers and displacement of 21 families. The key challenges encountered in this subproject include compensation rates for private lands, resistance from religious trustees for relocation of affected worship structures, and compensation for road margin areas. Relocation of affected workshop places was one of the most challenging in Hubli-Dharwad BRTS. 47. The key social development outcome of the project is that it facilitated the inclusion of more than 700 untitled holders for the resettlement assistance and in the process helped them reestablish their livelihoods and housing, who otherwise would have been left out for the resettlement support. In addition, 110 households were also provided security of tenure to their resettled homes in Pimpri- Chinchwad. There were few outstanding residual actions at the time of writing the ICR, related to payment compensation to 7 landowners and resettlement of 9 informal families in Pimpri-Chinchwad and pending compensation payment to 33 landowners and resettlement assistance to 7 tenants in Hubli-Dharwad. These delays are due to non-availability of the people to receive compensation or lack of ownership documents. Thus, the compliance with OP 4.12 was met with prolonged delays. 48. Financial management. The project’s overall performance on financial management aspects was consistently rated moderately satisfactory. 49. There were some delays in setting up financial management arrangements across the PIAs in the initial phase of the project, but a proactive and appropriately staffed PMU in MoUD helped set the ball rolling. Key challenges faced in the first few years of the project included (a) delay in entrustment of external audit of the PIAs with the Office of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, (b) delays in transfer of funds from state treasuries to the bank accounts of the PIAs (especially in the case of Atal Page 22 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) Indore City Transport Services Limited [AICTSL]), (c) inadequate budget provisioning in the state government annual budgets, and (d) delays in receipt of counterpart funding (especially on contracts partly funded under the National Urban Renewal Mission (NURM) scheme of the GoI). Submission of audit reports and interim unaudited financial reports of the PIAs by the PMU was largely on time throughout the project period. Audit observations were mostly reconciled and have not been significant value-wise. 50. There were two key FM issues that the project struggled with and can serve as learnings for future projects: (a) weak internal audit and (b) accounting of the advances sanctioned to individual PIAs. The project design envisaged constitution of an audit committee at MoUD for review of the internal audit reports for the PIAs. Several supervision missions throughout the project period found that the audit committee had not been convened regularly and/or internal auditors were not in place or when internal audits were conducted, their quality left much to be desired. Not surprisingly, there were gaps in the internal control processes adopted by the PIAs’ timely extension of contracts. With respect to accounting of advances, since the World Bank systems maintained a single account for making advance disbursements across all PIAs, details of advances provided to each PIA had to be maintained manually leading to some instances of incorrect documentation of expenditure and inconsistencies in the reconciliation. 51. Procurement. The procurement happened both at the center and state levels. At the center, the PMU was created to play an oversight role to ensure that procurement is implemented efficiently, economically, and in a transparent manner, supported by the hired PMC team having an experienced procurement expert with World Bank procurement knowledge. The PMU also provided assistance to the PIAs in states, to help them understand and carry out procurement properly. Prior-review thresholds were kept low, and in addition, it was agreed that contracts above a defined value but below the agreed prior- review thresholds will be prior-reviewed by the PMU. This process has enabled the project to expedite procurement. Despite this progress and strengthening of procurement processes, some weaknesses remained, as observed in the postprocurement review conducted in states. These included, in some cases, the delay in progress of works, contract award details not published in their website, no insurance in civil works, and delays in payment and accepting suo moto discount after bid opening, which is considered negotiation. These issues appeared to be due to a lack of awareness about procurement guidelines among officials handling procurement highlighting the need for regular training. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry Rating: Satisfactory 52. The World Bank ensured a high quality at entry through the following: (a) adequate recognition given to the challenges of a multicity project across states and accordingly the project design included strong implementation arrangements, flexibility for easy exits and entry in case of city nonperformance, expert NGOs to supplement supervision pressures, and so on; (b) combination of GEF and IBRD resources to facilitate a combination of technical assistance and investment activities; and (c) strong M&E emphasis and budgets. However, there were some weaknesses, in particular the optimistic completion date that left little reserve in case of project delays. Overall, the project design was resilient to the changes during implementation and the designed good practices and strategic technical assistance have delivered demonstrational impact. Page 23 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) Quality of Supervision Rating: Satisfactory 53. The quality of supervision was High, in terms of the effort made and guidance given. There was an in-country World Bank team with stability in the team membership. A total of 22 Implementation Support Missions were undertaken over the project life, which equates to a mission about every four months. This ensured a regular dialogue and review, tracking of progress, and following up of commitments. The World Bank mobilized the support of experts to the cities on particular design, technical, or operational matters and also arranged study visits to maintain interest levels and to provide exposure to best practices. All Implementation Support Missions paid strong attention to fiduciary and safeguard aspects. Issues as they emerged were escalated to appropriate levels in MoHUA or within the state government when it was clear that they were either beyond the PIA remit or were not being properly addressed by them. The Steering Committee meetings were used effectively to take timely decisions with regard to dropping and inclusion of cities and demo projects, extensions, and raising issues with regard to NURM funding as well as coordination with central agencies such as Railways and Ministry of Road Transport and Highways. Safeguards non-compliances such as in Pimpri-Chinchwad and the frequent changes of officials in Indore were escalated to highest levels in the state government with positive results for the project. Aide Memoires from the Implementation Support Missions were comprehensive and became the basis for tracking discussions and agreements from mission to mission and city to city. The team remained agile throughout the project and ensured restructurings to ensure (a) the exit of nonperforming Pune and timely inclusion of Hubli-Dharwad, (b) inclusion of Mysore PBS for broadening the range of NMT-related demo projects, (c) project extensions to complete envisaged project activities and achievement of PDO, (d) changes to Results Framework as warranted, and (e) maximum use of the GEF grant. In view of the above, a rating of Satisfactory is appropriate. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance Rating: Satisfactory 54. Much of the World Bank performance would merit a rating of Satisfactory. In particular, the M&E and quality at entry, and the strong effort in supervision which led to several good practice demonstrations for Indian cities must be acknowledged. There is also the key fact that all of the projects did get delivered as planned, and by 2019, they will be in full operation and making significant contribution to the cities. Hence, a rating of Satisfactory is deemed appropriate. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME Rating: Moderate 55. The LUTP training under the capacity-building component was comprehensive and extensive and ensured that participants were from across India and from diverse fields such as policy making, planning, public transport operations, environment, and traffic enforcement. Being senior officials, they are in a good position to influence their organizations and initiate environmentally friendly actions in their respective fields; indeed, some have already implemented projects which have led to improvements in environmentally friendly urban transport in their cities, and many others are at various stages of moving forward this agenda. While this contained some risk of turnover of the trained staff, to unrelated jobs or even to different sectors, it has doubtless helped uplift thinking and know-how throughout the industry. The establishment of capacity at the CEPT University (and later IUT) to offer high-level training programs Page 24 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) for government officials ensures continuity in its current form or its variants. Further, the development of Guidance Documents in several cutting-edge areas has ensured a strong body of guidance material in the country for city officials and their consultants, and there is ample evidence that they have become popular reference material for cities and consultants in the preparation of their Smart City projects.7 56. The BRT investments are visible, tangible, and generally of high quality. The BRT in Hubli-Dharwad is particularly impressive and, combined with the terminals and depots, helps set new standards for India. Likewise, the four BRT corridors in Pimpri-Chinchwad demonstrate that a network can be built around a set of BRT corridors. The risk of BRT infrastructure being underutilized arises from possible lack of capacity of the transport agencies to adjust the network to fully avail of the BRT infrastructure or to assign sufficient number of buses. This is more likely in situations where the financials are adverse, and the travel time benefits not as obvious. In Hubli-Dharwad, there is clear evidence that there are significant time savings from the BRT and also that it is more attractive to users than the regular city bus. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the proper deployment of buses on Corridors 3 and 4 has been affected by the financial issues being faced by PMPML and their limited fleet. However, these are temporary issues as orders have been placed and the new buses are likely to be available from April 2019. The reversal in Pune to refocus on the BRTS as a public transport mode is a measure of the success of the Pimpri-Chinchwad system. In Naya Raipur, the service has been very well received, and the ridership continues to grow with the growing inhabitation of the new city. 57. The ITS successes of Mysore and more recently Indore have shown the way to Indian cities. The operational, planning, and resource management benefits are immediately evident and generally appreciated by the operating companies. KSRTC has received many awards and much visibility for the Mysore ITS. Further, KSRTC has extended the system to their entire fleet. Mysore ITS has further progressed and become the first to implement an open data policy. Many cities have visited Mysore to learn from their experience. The success of Mysore PBS has opened the eyes of the policy makers and officials in Karnataka state and helped dispel reservations, and the plans for launching the system in Bangalore are advancing rapidly. Many new cities have finalized plans for launching PBS/ITS initiatives, and these are being integrated into and carried forward through their Smart City projects ensuring continuity and sustained development impact. There is no doubt that the project has more than amply delivered on its objective of demonstration impact of small to midsize but high-impact investments. 58. The sector has traditionally suffered from limited resources, and the lack of continuity in national schemes specifically focused on urban mobility initiatives (beyond urban rail) has certainly affected the level and complexity of interventions being attempted at the state and city levels. A National Green Urban Mobility Scheme is on the anvil, and as and when it is launched, it is likely to give a significant boost to the sector and help nurture the sector capacity and development. Meanwhile, the development of a large fraternity of urban transport practitioners exposed to good practices, the demonstration impacts realized, the strides made in development of stronger institutions and policies in the project cities, and the growing interest and ownership among states ensure that there is low to moderate risk of development outcomes of this project not being sustained. 7The Smart City Mission of the GoI was launched in 2014 by MoHUA covering 100 cities with a focus on information and communication technology (ICT) and area-based development initiatives. Page 25 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59. Multicity projects can work, but they require extensive preparation, robust structures, sustained management commitment, and state-level engagement over the project life. SUTP was an ambitious project, taking on projects in multiple cities and multiple states, in a domain that has known problems and invariably involves both safeguard and public sentiment challenges. Despite the significant groundwork, there were many challenges and supervision tended to be intense and resource consuming. The visible effort put in over a decade shows that it can be done when management and financial commitment can be consistently ensured. Despite a long preparation cycle, Pune had to be cancelled almost immediately after the start of the project. During implementation, commitment issues surfaced in other cities such as Indore and Pimpri-Chinchwad. It was found that engaging the state government in the project was an effective means of ensuring stronger and continued commitment from city agencies that were often headed by junior- to mid-level officials and, when left to themselves, could take decisions in an ad hoc manner. The project implementation in Hubli-Dharwad, Mysore, and Naya Raipur was far more stable precisely because of the stronger role of the state government in these demo projects. Future projects in India must ensure a role for the state government in urban transport projects and consider multistate as opposed to multicity engagements or multi-city engagements within a state. 60. A scale-up of sustainable urban mobility initiatives will require sustained support of the state and national government. The NUTP and NURM served to build awareness and create interest around urban mobility initiatives in Indian cities, but it was only a beginning. The urban mobility needs of most Indian cities remain underfunded even in terms of basic public transport and NMT. Although debates have begun in many states and cities around the need for supporting urban public transport operations, a more structured and direct approach would help fast-track the outcomes. National and state-level programs targeting development of basic public transport services and NMT would go a long way in addressing the mobility needs of most medium-size cities and are the need of the hour. International experience suggests that sustained support is critical for nurturing urban mobility. Once the financing constraints are addressed, the development of the sector, systems, and human resources will follow naturally. 61. Capacity-building efforts can be potentially transformational if designed and implemented well. The capacity-building effort under SUTP was strongly backed by MoHUA and had a strong emphasis on engagement with practitioners and officials at the ground level. The LUTP training program brought together large groups of state and city officials for intense interactions and group work on live cases and issues. The development of guidance documents and other studies taken up by MoHUA were specifically designed to include handholding support to cities and frequent national-level workshops for facilitating discussion and deliberation on key areas among the states and cities and dissemination of the documents being developed. The collaboration with local institutes added value. This format though more time and resource intensive created forums for rich knowledge exchange and peer-to-peer learning and led to the development of a vibrant community of urban mobility practitioners. 62. BRT projects need to establish comprehensive teams on par with Metro projects. They are complex projects that are more than just the infrastructure design and contracting of civil works. They include operational dimensions such as bus service plan, design of operating procedures, traffic management, pedestrian access, safety processes, and so on. They include land acquisition and safeguard management processes, communication, and consultation processes. The experience in SUTP was that Page 26 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371, P100589) the ‘BRT Office’ tended to be on a small scale, reliant on units of the mother agencies for much of the technical support, and with a primary focus on civil works. The nonconstruction elements (land acquisition and so on) as well as operations tended to continue to reside in other departments or agencies. This led to fragmentation in planning and delivery, gaps in communication and responsibilities, and understaffing in critical areas. BRT projects must be implemented through nodal entities such as SPVs and should be more substantial and multifunctional, along the lines of a typical Metro project, so that they have the capability to deal with all the issues in an integrated way. The positive example of this was the Hubli- Dharwad demo project that set up the HDBRTSCo with the nodal mandate of designing, implementing, and operating the BRT in the city, supported by the DULT at the state level. Its planning and subsequent management of implementation including the many challenges that it encountered was comprehensive and systematic. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, by contrast, in the absence of a nodal entity, the results remained suboptimal as neither the municipal corporation nor the bus company fully owned the project. In Indore, on the other hand, things worked well after initial hiccups during the construction phase, once the bus company took over operations. 63. BRT and ITS will only realize their true potential when there is the ability to utilize them. BRT infrastructure and ITS have great potential, but this potential can only be achieved when there is the business/service plan and the organizational capacity to utilize them well. To a large extent, the SUTP cities only began to prepare themselves for the operational phase as the works were being completed, despite repeated advice from the World Bank and the PMU/PMC to do so several years earlier. Although responding post-implementation, Mysore ITS provides an excellent model of how it progressively used the data and functionality of the ITS to adjust its schedules and routes, to tackle a wide range of long- standing operational problems, and gradually incorporated the ITS into its processes throughout the organization. Ridership development requires greater effort and understanding. Both in Pimpri- Chinchwad and Naya Raipur BRTS, there is scope for improving the ridership, but this requires investment of resources in promotion, market research, and planning, which are often not readily available with the entities concerned. Using the results from the M&E effort, Naya Raipur was able to implement an improved service plan, which has resulted in travel time savings for the users and an increase in ridership of over 30 percent over the past six to eight months. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the weak capacity of PMPML and deteriorating fleet have led to a declining service on its operational BRT corridors despite a positive public response to the system. 64. Land acquisition readiness and adequate public consultations are prerequisites for improved outcomes and reducing delays. Inordinate delays in land acquisition in Pimpri-Chinchwad has delayed the civil works in certain sections by four to five years and led to considerable time and some cost overruns. Further, contrary to the experience in Pimpri-Chinchwad, the robust public consultations during preparation of the project has helped Hubli-Dharwad BRTS incorporate the suggestions of the people in the project design and action plan and thus minimized resistance to implementation. 65. Two-stage and temporary resettlement should be avoided. The shifting of displaced families to transit housing for 18 months resulted in people living there for about six years due to inordinate delays in construction of alternative housing causing hardship to displaced families. Similarly, the three-month temporary displacement of shopkeepers in Hubli-Dharwad resulted in a 10-month wait for shopkeepers to bring them back to the original site due to delay in construction schedules. This suggests avoiding two- stage resettlement or temporary displacement and instead planning for permanent resettlement. . Page 27 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Component 1. Capacity Development Assistance for Urban Transport Outcome 1: Promote environmentally sustainable urban transport in India Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Number of environmentally Number 0.00 6.00 6.00 16.00 friendly urban transport practices and approaches 31-Oct-2010 15-Dec-2014 31-Mar-2018 25-Feb-2019 provided by the project that are adopted by cities Comments (achievements against targets): The indicator was surpassed. Several cities and agencies moved forward with sustainable approaches and practices on which they received support under the project either through LUTP training program or through the city specific support under Guidance Document preparation. Objective/Outcome: Component 2: City Demonstration Projects Outcome 2: Improve the usage of Environmentally friendly transport modes through demonstration projects in selected cities Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Page 28 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Forecast CO2 emissions over 10 Number 0.00 128000.00 128000.00 312000.00 years in the cities participating in Component 2 are at least 30-Jun-2010 15-Dec-2014 31-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2018 128,000 tons lower than BAU forecasts Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator was achieved and exceeded. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Hubli-Dharwad - Public Percentage 30.00 30.00 33.00 0.00 transport mode share increases 30-Jun-2010 15-Dec-2014 31-Mar-2018 31-Jan-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): This indicator is yet to be measured as the BRTS has recently commenced operations. However, the strong positive feedback of the users, the growing ridership and the initial surveys indicating that 18 percent of the users have shifted from personal modes of which 9 percent are from cars, provides ample evidence that the project is ensuring a shift towards more sustainable mode in the city. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Pimpri-Chinchwad - Modal Percentage 4.20 8.00 8.00 8.82 share by public transport increases 30-Oct-2009 15-Dec-2014 31-Mar-2018 30-Jun-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator is achieved. The public transport in the city has significantly improved and the mode shares have strengthened. The investment by the city in further BRT network development, the revival of the BRT in the twin city Pune, the Page 29 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) development of non motorized transport networks and taking forward of the parking policy are all steps that will further strengthen mode shares. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Naya Raipur: Public transport Percentage 0.00 50.00 40.00 42.40 trip mode share between Raipur and Naya Raipur 31-Oct-2009 22-Aug-2014 31-Mar-2018 31-Jul-2018 increases Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator is achieved. The launch of the interim bus service early on and the subsequent launch of the BRTS have ensured that a large proportion of trips between the old and new city are on public transport. Although the targets set were over- ambitious especially in the context of low public transport mode share in the old city as in other Indian cities, these have been overachieved with respect to the revised target and substantially achieved with respect to the original target. Unlinked Indicators Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Number of environmentally Number 0.00 6.00 6.00 16.00 friendly urban transport practices and approaches 31-Oct-2009 15-Dec-2014 31-Mar-2018 31-Aug-2018 provided by the project that are adopted by cities Comments (achievements against targets): The indicator was surpassed. Several cities and agencies moved forward with sustainable approaches and practices on which they received support under the project either through LUTP training program or through the city specific support under Guidance Document preparation. Page 30 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Capacity development Assistance for Urban Transport Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion MoUD partners with Number 0.00 20.00 20.00 159.00 states/cities to develop capacity and support cities in 31-Oct-2010 15-Dec-2014 31-Mar-2018 31-Aug-2018 sustainable local solutions Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator is overachieved. Officials participating in LUTP undertook 139 projects covering 47 cities and 20 plans were developed across 17 cities under Guidance Document city specific support in reform areas such as UMTA, UTF, ToD etc. Unlinked Indicators Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion PIMPRI CHINCHWAD - Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 96.40 Percentage of displaced families that are resettled in 31-Oct-2010 10-Nov-2015 31-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2018 alternative houses Comments (achievements against targets): Substantially achieved Indicator Name Unit of Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Page 31 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Measure Target Completion NAYA RAIPUR - Atleast two Number 0.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 public transport corridors are established and in operation 30-Oct-2009 15-Dec-2015 31-Mar-2018 30-Nov-2015 between Naya Raipur and Raipur Comments (achievements against targets): This target was achieved. Public transport was planned on both corridors connecting the old and new city, one is connected through the high performance BRTS Lite and the other through ordinary bus service. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion NAYA RAIPUR - Safe sidewalks Kilometers 0.00 36.00 36.00 68.00 and cycle tracks are provided on the main roads of Naya 30-Oct-2009 15-Dec-2015 31-Mar-2018 30-Jun-2017 Raipur Comments (achievements against targets): 68 km of footpath and cycle tracks have been built under the project in Naya Raipur. The city has taken this forward by building many more kilometers through its own funds. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion HUBLI DHARWAD - BRT Text Not operational BRT is operational BRT is operational BRT is operational corridor is operational 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2015 31-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Achieved. The BRTS began trial runs in October 2018 and has gradually increased the service since Page 32 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) then. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion HUBLI DHARWAD - Safe Text No stations, no Stations, footpath, Stations, footpath, Footpath, foot-over- pedestrian access to BRT footpath FoB, traffic signal FoB, traffic signal bridges complete, phasing in place phasing in place traffic signals substantially installed 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2018 31-Mar-2018 31-Jan-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Footpaths, foot-over-bridges and access at intersections have been provided for. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Hubli Dharwad: Percentage of Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 97.50 Project affected people received Compensation and 31-Dec-2012 15-Dec-2015 31-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2018 Resettlement assistance. Comments (achievements against targets): Substantially achieved Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion ITS systems and units are Percentage 0.00 80.00 80.00 93.00 installed, functioning, and utilized at Mysore for at least 30-Oct-2009 15-Dec-2015 30-Nov-2015 31-Jul-2017 Page 33 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 80% of their intended of revenue vehicle kilometers of service by project end. Comments (achievements against targets): Overachieved. The system in Mysore is successfully operating and being utilized to improve the overall system performance. It is considered a success story in India and a role model for other cities, and received many awards. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion ITS systems and units are Percentage 0.00 86.00 80.00 98.00 installed, functioning, and utilized at Indore for at least 30-Oct-2009 15-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2015 30-Nov-2018 80% of their intended of revenue vehicle kilometers of service by project end. Comments (achievements against targets): Overachieved. Though operationalized with some delays, the system is functional and has received positive feedback with regard to reduction in wait and travel time. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Mysore - PBS system installed Text No PBS PBS installed and PBS installed and PBS launched on 4 and functioning functioning functioning June, 2017 and fully functioning 30-Nov-2014 30-Nov-2015 31-Mar-2018 10-Aug-2017 Page 34 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Comments (achievements against targets): PBS system became operational in June 2017becoming the first citywide system to be launched in India. The feedback has been extremely positive and it has informed the design and launch of other systems in the country. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Pimpri-Chinchwad - At least Number 0.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 two BRT Corridors operational 31-Dec-2009 15-Dec-2015 31-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): PCMC currently has 3 of its 4 BRT corridors operational; and 1 of the 2 BRT corridors supported by the Bank. Corridor 4 which is complete is proposed for launch in April 2019 once the ordered buses arrive. Page 35 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1: Promote environmentally sustainable urban transport in India 1. Indicator 1: Number of environmentally friendly urban transport practices and approaches Outcome Indicators provided by the project that are adopted by cities 1. Intermediate Result Indicator One: MoUD partners with states/cities to develop capacity and Intermediate Results Indicators support cities in sustainable local solutions 1. Component 1A - GEF UNDP: Business Plan for IUT Knowledge Management Centre (KMC) Ten training modules Fifteen toolkits for urban transport in the Indian context Quarterly newsletters with articles from members of the urban transport fraternity 2. Component 1B - GEF World Bank: 449 officials trained under LUTP) program, conducted in CEPT University at Ahmedabad, KOTI at Key Outputs by Component Seoul, UITP at Dubai, LTA at Singapore, and IUT at New Delhi (linked to the achievement of the Development of a National Urban Transport Research Program and associated Operational Manual Objective/Outcome 1) Development of guidance documents for the following reforms: • Guidance documents for setting up and operationalizing UMTA and UTF. • Guidance documents for setting up and operationalizing Traffic Control Centers and National Urban Transport Helpline. • Guidance documents for ToD, PBS, and NMT • Guidance document for institutionalizing research in urban transport • Model contracts and guidance documents thereon for private operation of city buses. Preparation support for Efficient & Sustainable City Bus Services project GHG Emissions Study for SUTP demo cities Page 36 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Objective/Outcome 2: Improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes through demonstration projects in selected cities 1. Indicator 2A: Mode shares in Pimpri-Chinchwad, Naya Raipur and Hubli Dharwad become more sustainable by project end Outcome Indicators 2. Indicator 2B: Forecast CO2 emissions over 10 years in the cities participating in Component 2 are at least 128,000 tons lower that their BAU forecasts 1. Intermediate Result Indicator One: Pimpri Chinchwad – At least two BRT corridors operational 2. Intermediate Result Indicator Two: Pimpri Chinchwad – Percentage of displaced families that are resettled in alternative houses 3. Intermediate Result Indicator Three: Naya Raipur – At least two Public Transport corridors are established and in operation between Naya Raipur and Raipur (1&2) 4. Intermediate Result Indicator Four: Naya Raipur – Safe sidewalks and cycle tracks are provided on the main roads of Naya Raipur 5. Intermediate Result Indicator Five: Hubli Dharwad – BRT corridor is operational 6. Intermediate Result Indicator Six: Hubli Dharwad – Safe pedestrian access to BRT Intermediate Results Indicators 7. Intermediate Result Indicator Seven: Hubli Dharwad - Percentage of project affected people received compensation and resettlement assistance 8. Intermediate Result Indicator Eight: Mysore - ITS systems and units are installed, functioning, and utilized at Mysore for at least 80% of their intended of revenue vehicle kilometers of service by project end. 9. Intermediate Result Indicator Nine: Indore - ITS systems and units are installed, functioning, and utilized at Indore for at least 80% of their intended of revenue vehicle kilometers of service by project end. 10. Intermediate Result Indicator Ten: Mysore PBS - PBS system installed and functioning 1. Pimpri-Chinchwad: 2 BRTS corridors including 2 grade separators, terminals, and ITS 2. Naya Raipur: Bus depot, shelters, BRTS stations, ITS, 32 km of cycle track, and pedestrian Key Outputs by Component walkways (linked to the achievement of the 3. Indore: ITS including Automatic Fare Collection System (AFCS), AVLS, and Passenger Information Objective/Outcome 2) System (PIS) 4. Mysore: ITS (AVLS and PIS) for 500 buses, 105 bus Stops, 45 platforms, and 6 bus terminals In-motion 6 degree of freedom bus driving simulator. Page 37 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 5. Mysore PBS: 52 docking stations, 450 bikes, and control room 6. Hubli-Dharwad: 22.3 km BRTS, BRTS stations, terminals/interchange, bus depot/workshop, ITS for citywide public transport system, and NMT In-motion 6 degree of freedom bus driving simulator. Naya Raipur 1. Study and preparation of Regional Mobility Plan for Greater Raipur Region 2. PMCs for ITS for SUTP in Naya Raipur 3. Project Management Consultancy for supervision and quality monitoring of (a) Development of cycle track and pedestrian walkways and (b) Development of bus terminal, bus depot, and bus shelters 4. Study on ToD for Naya Raipur 5. Detailed Project Report (DPR) for bus depot, bus shelter, pickup points, and transfer stations under SUTP Naya Raipur, for preparation of tender documents and for assisting in procurement of contractor for constructing the components 6. DPR and bid process management for selection of contractor and PMC for development of cycle track and pedestrian walkway in Naya Raipur 7. Consultants for project M&E of BRTS and NMT in Naya Raipur Technical Assistance under Component 2 8. Preparation of Social Impact Assessment Report specific for BRTS 9. Appointment of a transport planner Mysore ITS - KSRTC 1. Comprehensive Service and Operations Analysis Study 2. PMC for ITS project 3. M&E consultancy Indore ITS - AICTSL 1. PMCs for ITS solutions 2. Design of detailed median bus stations of BRTS 3. M&E Pimpri-Chinchwad - PCMC Page 38 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 1. Accessibility Plan for BRTS by pedestrian and nonmotorized modes for Pimpri-Chinchwad BRT corridors 2. Preparation of Parking Policy and Master Plan in Pimpri-Chinchwad 3. Promotion and Outreach Program for BRT and NMT systems in Pimpri-Chinchwad 4. M&E Hubli-Dharwad - HDBRTSCo 1. M&E for BRTS (social and environmental component) 2. Communication and outreach 3. PMCs for BRTS 4. Project management consultancy for ITS 5. Land Use and Transport Integration Plan 6. Capacity building Page 39 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. Task Team Members Name Role Preparation Ke Fang Task Team Leader Atul Agarwal Transport Specialist Gaurav D. Joshi Environmental Specialist Manmohan Singh Bajaj Senior Procurement Specialist Asha Bhagat Financial Management Specialist (Consultant) Venkat Rao Bayana Social Development Specialist (Consultant) Said Dahdah Road Safety Specialist (E T Consultant) Krishnamurthy S. Financial Management Specialist Neha Dhoundiyal Financial Management Analyst Gizella Diaz Program Assistant Yash Gupta Procurement Specialist (Consultant) Priya Goel Senior Financial Management Specialist Nupur Gupta Transport Specialist Neetu Sharda Team Assistant Parthapriya Ghosh Social Development Specialist (Consultant) Transport and Environment Economist Roger Gauham (Consultant) Gerhard Menckhoff BRT Specialist (Consultant) Hubert Nove-Josserand Senior Urban Transport Specialist Fernanda Ruiz Nunez Young Professional Sona Thakur Communication Specialist Justina Parambaloth Team Assistant Yingying Shi Junior Professional Associate Krishnan Srinivasan Governance Specialist (Consultant) Natalya Stankevich Operations Analyst Samuel L. Zimmerman Senior Urban Transport Specialist Supervision/ICR Page 40 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Nupur Gupta Task Team Leader(s) Satyanarayan Panda Procurement Specialist(s) Debabrata Chakraborti Procurement Specialist Neha Dhoundiyal Financial Management Specialist Neha Gupta Financial Management Specialist I. U. B. Reddy Social Development Specialist Venkata Rao Bayana Social Development Specialist Raman V. Krishnan Senior ICT Policy Specialist Aruna Aysha Das Team Member Gaurav D. Joshi Environmental Specialist Sharlene Jehanbux Chichgar Environmental Specialist Reenu Aneja Team Member Ishita Chauhan Research Analyst Sujit Das Highway Engineer (Consultant) Samuel L. Zimmerman Senior Urban Transport Specialist Gerhard Menckhoff BRT Specialist (Consultant) A. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY08 13.375 47,644.12 FY09 31.741 150,757.55 FY10 6.912 101,939.37 FY11 .050 50,464.06 FY12 0 163.90 Total 52.08 350,969.00 Page 41 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Supervision/ICR FY10 5.912 57,946.77 FY11 21.631 120,695.57 FY12 37.825 244,513.13 FY13 65.182 311,471.47 FY14 61.233 265,834.02 FY15 69.016 287,831.77 FY16 44.980 172,843.59 FY17 43.075 143,966.14 FY18 48.515 210,942.72 FY19 7.688 36,524.32 Total 405.06 1,852,569.50 Page 42 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Table 3.1. Project Cost at Approval and Project Closing Amount at Approval Actual at Project Closing Percentage of Approval Components (US$, millions) (US$, millions) (%) Capacity Development 7.80 4.37 56.0 Assistance City Demonstration 336.80 311.30 92.4 Projects Total 346.80 318.67 91.9 Table 3.2. Project Cost by Component and Funding Source at Project Closing Project Cost (US$, millions) GoI State City/PIA GEF World Bank Total Subcomponent 1B 0 — — 4.37 — 4.37 Component 2 37.56 126.55 46.30 12.33 88.56 311.30 1 Pimpri-Chinchwad 23.68 11.71 39.14 1.36 28.40 104.28 2 Hubli-Dharwad 8.41 109.97 — 3.32 48.68 170.38 3 Mysore PBS 0.20 0.46 0 1.38 0 2.04 4 Naya Raipur 0.03 2.68 6.10 1.48 11.48 21.77 5 Indore 3.00 1.44 0.39 2.53 0 7.35 6 Mysore ITS 2.25 0.29 0.67 2.26 0 5.47 PMU project management cost 2.75 — — — — 2.75 Total project cost 40.31 126.55 46.30 16.70 88.56 318.41 World Bank front-end fee — — — — 0.26 0.26 Total cost 40.31 126.55 46.30 16.70 88.82 318.67 Page 43 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS Introduction 1. This annex presents an economic evaluation over a period of 30 years of the physical components of the project, in the cities of Pimpri-Chinchwad, Hubli-Dharwad, and Naya Raipur. It first summarizes the project components. It then defines the framework within which the evaluation is undertaken and the basis of the evaluation parameters. Finally, it estimates the economic rate of return for the project as a whole, including a set of sensitivity tests. 2. At appraisal only one of the demo projects (Pimpri-Chinchwad) had completed an economic evaluation. The Pimpri evaluation has many assumptions which are now difficult to understand and relies heavily on the operating cost savings from two-wheelers converting to BRT. 3. Subsequently, an economic evaluation of the Hubli-Dharwad project was undertaken. The project cost appears to have been significantly underestimated mainly owing to much higher land acquisition and resettlement costs than originally estimated, the construction period was optimistically short and the time savings were valued at a much higher value than is normal practice in IBRD. 4. Whilst these two evaluations showed very significant IRRs at the time, neither is satisfactory as a benchmark against which to judge the projects as constructed. Project Description Pimpri-Chinchwad (PC) 1. The project in this city implemented four BRT corridors, two of which were new constructions that also provided shorter routes for other modes. The beneficiaries thus consist of public transport users in the four corridors and all road users in the two corridors that provide shorter routes. The four corridors, including the two corridors providing shorter routes, are described in the following paragraphs. Corridor 3 2. This 8 km corridor runs east-west with a largely new alignment and provides a new corridor not only for BRT but also for general traffic., saving around 3 km compared to the alternative route. It currently has an estimated average BRT patronage of 10,000 per day compared to 4, 250 per day before the project. This route serves a developing area at its eastern end, and patronage is forecast to grow at 5 percent per year to 2028 and at 2 percent per year thereafter. In the absence of the project, bus patronage is forecast to grow at 3 percent per year to 2028 and at 1 percent per year thereafter. 3. Surveys show most (54 percent) of the new passengers have transferred from either motorcycles or autorickshaws with about 20 percent either previously walking, cycling, or are generated. About 18 percent transferred from cars. The proportion of new passengers transferring from car is forecast to grow to over 50 percent by 2047 as motorization steadily increases and traffic congestion grows. Page 44 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 4. The new alignment saves about 3 km between its two end points compared to the ‘without- project’ case. It also has a flyover at the eastern junction that will relieve congestion at that intersection. Analysis of the savings from the new alignment estimates that the average vehicle will save half the reduction in end-to-end distance (that is, 1.5 km). The annual average daily traffic (AADT) of the relevant section of the corridor is estimated at 14,000 vehicles per day and the reduction in intersection volume at 7,000 vehicles per day. Corridor 4 5. This is also an 8 km east-west corridor, which includes a major overpass at Empire Estate. It had opened for traffic in April 2018 except for the BRT, which was yet to be launched in late 2018. This corridor also saves distance, but rather less, about 0.7 km. The traffic volume in 2018 that would be affected by the corridor is about 28,000 vehicles per day. As with Corridor 3, the traffic mix is dominated by motorcycles but there are significantly fewer cars. 6. As the BRT in this corridor is not yet open, little data are available on likely patronage. However, it is reasonable to assume that it will draw from the same modes as in Corridor 3, that is, primarily motorcycles and autorickshaws, and have similar growth rates. Corridors 1 and 2 7. Both these corridors run north-south along existing main roads. Corridor 2 (14 km) opened in 2015 and Corridor 1 (12 km) in late 2018. They have almost identical bus frequencies and similar traffic mixes. The passengers per day without the project were 39,200 and 36,400, respectively. Patronage is forecast to grow at 2 percent per year to 2028 and at 1 percent thereafter. In the absence of the project, bus patronage is forecast to grow at 1 percent per year to 2028 and at 0.5 percent per year thereafter. 8. Surveys show most (57 percent) of the new passengers have transferred from either motorcycles or autorickshaws with about 20 percent either previously walking, cycling, or are generated. About 19 percent transferred from cars. As with Corridors 3 and 4, the proportion of new passengers transferring from car is forecast to grow to over 50 percent by 2047 as motorization steadily increases and traffic congestion grows. Hubli-Dharwad 9. This project implemented a 22.25 km BRT route between the twin cities of Hubli and Dharwad. Part of this is a dedicated BRT corridor, including three bus flyovers and one vehicular underpass, while the remainder is in mixed traffic. Four vehicular underpasses are proposed to facilitate movement of traffic across the BRTS corridor (HDBRTSCo). 10. Before the project, normal city buses and private city buses ran between the two cities and carried about 70 percent of the passengers moving between the cities. Trial operations began in December 2018 and, so far, have attracted around 50 percent of the previous bus passengers. However, total passenger- km are expected to increase by 5 percent by also attracting passengers from other modes (primarily car). Page 45 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 11. Patronage is forecast to increase at 5 percent per year to 2028 and 2 percent per year thereafter with the project and at 3 percent per year and 1 percent per year, respectively, in the ‘without-project’ case. 12. In addition, the four underpasses included in the project will create benefits by reducing congestion and accidents. These are relatively small and have been estimated as an order of magnitude figure. 13. The project also includes a component implementing an ITS and depot and terminal improvements for the city buses in general. This market segment is assumed to have similar characteristics and growth rates as the Hubli-Dharwad services. Naya Raipur 14. The Naya Raipur project provides a high-quality bus service between Raipur and the newly developing administrative center of Naya Raipur, some 20 km away. The project consists of a main corridor connecting Raipur and Naya Raipur while Corridor 3 forms an internal corridor completely within Naya Raipur. 15. In the absence of the project, those needing to travel between Raipur and Naya Raipur have to rely on a combination of minibuses and shared taxis, together with a skeletal public bus service and a much smaller employees-only service for government employees. 16. By the end of 2018, the government-employee service had been expanded in parallel with the public bus services, with the BRT and associated conventional public bus services accounting for 40 percent of all trips between Raipur and Naya Raipur. Patronage of the combined services is forecast to increase at 4 percent per year over the next 10 years (that is, nearly doubling) and at 2 percent thereafter, compared to 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in the ‘without-project’ case. 17. Surveys show two-thirds of the current demand has transferred from minibuses, with most of the rest coming from motorcycles. About 7 percent has come from cars. Over time, this is forecast to increase until over 20 percent of patronage has transferred from car by 2048. Identification of Benefits 18. The projects result in improved public transport services in each of the three cities. The beneficiaries fall into three groups: • Users of the services through reduced travel times, changes in travel costs, improved vehicles, and service quality in terms of reliability and punctuality (known as the ‘user surplus’) • Operators through changes in operating costs net of changes in operating revenues (known as the ‘operator surplus’) Page 46 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) • Nonusers of the infrastructure who experience changes in congestion and accidents as a result of the changes in modes generated by the project, as well as more general effects such as any change in GHG emissions Measurement of Benefits and Costs 19. This section derives the difference in costs and benefits arising from the project compared to the ‘without-project’ case. Following the original PAD evaluation, the financial costs of construction have been converted to economic costs by factoring by 0.9. No other financial costs and benefits have been adjusted. User Benefits 20. Service improvements arise not just from reduced travel time but also from improvements in service quality such as reliability, punctuality, improved terminal facilities, and better information. All these have happened to a greater or lesser extent, and the user benefits are typically larger than just the improvement in travel time. 21. While some of these improvements such as reliability, service frequency, and punctuality can be readily quantified, others such as terminal facilities and the benefits of better and more accurate information are difficult. The benefits from the projects have thus been identified indirectly by using the change in demand and the estimated fare elasticity to estimate the net benefit to existing users in monetary terms. The benefits of passengers diverted from other modes can then be estimated using the ‘rule-of-a-half’, a standard approach for such users. Table 4.1 presents the calculations for each of the corridors in the three projects and compares the benefit with the reported travel time savings. Table 4.1. User Benefits by Corridor - 2019 PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 Hubli BRT Hubli City Raipur Patronage increase (%) 22 22 135 50 6 3 75 Bus share without project (%) 23 17 10 10 70 20 20 Implicit benefits (INR/person) 8 9 48 18 6 1 29 Person per day (without project) 62,214 67,000 10,500 15,167 108,000 140,000 13,000 Benefits per year (INR million) 206 256 305 122 257 62 191 22. For future years, these costs have been factored according to forecast growth in BRT use and the forecast growth in the average urban household income (5 percent per year to 2029 and 3 percent per year thereafter). Operator Benefits 23. These benefits include the following: • The maintenance cost of the new facilities • The difference between revenue and cost for professional operators (bus companies and independent public transport [autorickshaws, motorcycles, taxis, and so on]) Page 47 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) • The difference between the perceived cost of travelling by private cars or motorcycles and the economic (or ‘resource’) cost (often termed the ‘resource cost correction’) 24. The maintenance cost of the new investment has been estimated as 2 percent of the capital cost. This is an average value, varying between 1 percent for structures, 1.5 percent for BRT roadway and terminals, and 10 percent for equipment (excluding buses). 25. Data collected during the monitoring of the projects show that the margin between revenue and expenses for most bus operators involved in the project is close to zero. The same is almost true for the independent operators. The only allowance made in the evaluation is for the additional operating costs of BRT buses, which are air-conditioned and hence typically use an extra 20 percent of fuel. An extra INR 5 per vehicle-km has been allowed for this in the evaluation. 26. The ‘resource-cost correction’ allows for the difference between the cost of private transport as perceived by the owners/users (and thus included in the user benefit as reflected in their travel behavior) and the resource cost. The evaluation allows INR 2.5 per car-km and 0.8 per motorcycle-km. Nonuser Benefits 27. Nonuser benefits arise as a result of the change in traffic flows by mode. Three main nonuser benefits have been included in the evaluation, all related to the reduced use of the road network: • Reduction in the level of road congestion • Reduction in road accidents • Reduction in GHGs 28. No allowance has been made for any reduction in road maintenance costs of the general carriageway. 29. The change in congestion cost has been estimated using marginal unit costs of congestion8 derived from a study of New Delhi congestion in 2015. As most of these costs reflect in-vehicle time, future costs have been factored by the forecast increase in average incomes. 30. Accident savings are based on data collected during project monitoring and have been expressed as fatality and major injury rates per billion vehicle-km. The economic cost per fatality has been taken as 50 times the Indian per capita GDP, a standard formula based on costs in a range of countries. 31. The fuel savings generated by the project, and hence the reduction in GHG, are documented in annex 6. The physical quantities have been combined with prices increasing from US$30 per ton in 2015 to US$50 per ton in 2045. Calculation of Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) 32. The evaluation is based on a project cost (at 2018–2019 prices) of INR 18.2 billion, reduced to INR 16.5 billion after applying the conversion factor. However, this expenditure took place steadily over a 8Davis, Josepph, and Jagannathan Raina. 2015. “Congestion Costs on Indian Roads: A Case Study for New Delhi.” COMSNETS, Bangalore. Page 48 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) period of eight years (2011–2012 to 2018–2019), with the first benefits only appearing in 2013. After compounding at 7 percent per year, the converted expenditure increased to INR 21.3 billion in the calculation of the IRR (Table 4.2). 33. The project has a base case IRR of 11.2 percent, with an NPV (discounted at 7 percent per year to 2019) of INR 19.3 billion. The composition of costs and benefits is summarized in table 4.2. Table 4.2. Base Case Evaluation Item NPV (INR, millions) Capital expenditure −21,341 User benefits 45,789 Operator costs −5,914 Externalities 802 Total 19,335 34. Sensitivity tests have also been undertaken (table 4.3) to assess the robustness of the estimated IRR to variations in the following: • Project costs increased by 25 percent • User benefits reduced by 25 percent • Operator costs increased by 50 percent Table 4.3. Project IRR Sensitivity Tests (% per year) Test IRR (%) NPV (INR, millions) Base 11 19,335 Project costs + 25% 10 14000 User benefits reduced by 25% 9 7888 Operator costs increased by 50% 11 16378 35. Project implementation time also has an impact on the IRR. If the capex had been evenly spent in the three years before the implementation of the various project components, the IRR would have increased by about 1% per year and the NPV by about INR 3 billion, in each of the sensitivity tests. Page 49 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER, AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS 1. The GoI initiated SUTP with support of GEF, World Bank, and UNDP with the objective of promoting environmentally sustainable urban transport system in India. The scope of the project involved a wide range of activities, including but not limited to (a) capacity-building initiatives such as setting up of the KMC, training of professionals, preparation of toolkits and training modules, and preparation of guidance documents and operational manuals and (b) supporting design and implementation of six SUTPs related to public transport development, NMT development, and ITS in five selected cities. 1. General Project Information 2. The Sustainable Urban Transport project consists of three components: • Component 1: Capacity Building • Component 2: Demonstration Projects • Component 3: Strengthening of Project Management Capabilities 3. A general summary of the project is given in table below. Project SUTP GEF grant number TF095549-IN IBRD loan number IBRD 78180 Project ID P100589 Project approval December 10, 2009 Project start date May 5, 2010 Project end date (original) November 30, 2014 Project end date (revision 1) December 31, 2015 Revised completion date (revision 2) March 31, 2018 Loan amount US$105.23 million GEF grant through World Bank US$20.33 million GEF grant through UNDP US$4.05 million Loan, GEF grant, and project agreements signed on February 5, 2010 Implementing agencies - Component 1: Capacity Building IUT, PMU/MoHUA Implementing agencies - Component 2: Demonstration Cities NRDA, AICTSL, HDBRTSCo, KSRTC, PCMC, MCC Implementing agencies - Component 3: Strengthening of Project PMU, MoHUA management Capability 2. Achievements 2.1 Component 1: Capacity Building 2.1.1 Subcomponent 1A: GEF UNDP 4. This subcomponent primarily focused on capacity building and institutionalizing the process of Page 50 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) training to meet future needs. By assigning IUT the task of being the central repository of the knowledge gained, its dissemination, and hosting the KMC, an important strategy has been put in place. A total of 10 bespoke training modules and 15 toolkits for urban transport in the Indian context provided excellent material for self-study and for trainers. Quarterly newsletters with articles from members of the urban transport fraternity kept interest renewed by sharing of ideas and experiences. 2.1.2 Subcomponent 1B: GEF World Bank 5. The training course known as Leaders in Urban Transport Planning (LUTP) program, conducted in five centers—namely CEPT University at Ahmedabad, KOTI at Seoul, UITP at Dubai, LTA at Singapore, and IUT at New Delhi—were well received by the officials connected with urban transport from across the country, as they got trained in modern scientific approaches to urban transport. Successful implementation of a sustainable urban transport also requires cities to structurally prepare to meet challenges to promote modal shifts, harness finances, and plan cities such that travel demand is contained. Development of guidance documents for the following reforms was another important milestone. • Guidance documents for setting up and operationalizing UMTA and UTF • Guidance documents for setting up and operationalizing Traffic Control Centers and National Urban Transport Helpline • Guidance documents for ToD, PBS, and NMT • Guidance document for institutionalizing research in urban transport • Model contracts and guidance documents thereon for private operation of city buses 6. The finalization of the above-mentioned documents involved extensive study of similar models in India and overseas, wide consultation with various stakeholders across the country, and inputs from international experts including those from the World Bank. 7. The above-mentioned guidance documents have been used by policy makers, urban transport professionals, and urban transport authorities. Some of the achievements are summarized as follows: Urban Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA) • UMTA bill has been passed by Legislative Assembly in Kerala and is subject to clearance by Select Committee. Transit-oriented Development (ToD) • ToD policy issued by Bhopal states that all Metro corridors must be converted to ToD corridors. • Guidance document for ToD has been used by professionals in Bhubaneswar, Bhopal, and Kochi. • National-level ToD policy has been prepared by the MoHUA. 8. Inputs have been taken from the operations and guidance documents on UMTA and ToD in the preparation of Metro Rail Policy issued in 2017. Page 51 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) • Policy document states “For all metro rail projects taken up with central assistance it will be mandatory for the state governments to give commitment to set up and operationalize UMTA in the city within a year. Further, cities, where metro projects are under implementation, may consider setting up of UMTA within a year.” • Policy document states “All project (metro rail) proposals should mandatorily contain a chapter on the Transit Oriented Development (TOD). The commitment by the State Government to adhere the guidelines issued by the central government w.r.t TOD and adoption of Value Capture Financing (VCF) should be an integral part of the project proposal.” Nonmotorized Transport (NMT) and Public Bike Sharing (PBS) Scheme- • Guidance document for NMT has been referred by professionals in preparation of NMT projects in Vizag, Bhubaneswar, Pune, Coimbatore, and so on. • Guidance document for PBS has been referred by professionals in preparation of PBS projects in Delhi, Bhubaneswar, Surat, Gurgaon, Bangalore, and so on. Traffic Management and Information Control Centre (TMICC) - • TMICC guidance document has been referred by professionals in Bhopal, Bhubaneswar, Ahmedabad, Surat, and Jammu for setting up and operationalizing TMICC. Model Contracts and Guidance Documents Thereon for Private Operation of City Buses • Model contract document for hiring city bus operators has been referred by professionals in Bhubaneswar, Mira Bhayandar, and Jaipur. 2.2 Component 2: Demonstration Cities 9. The focus of Component 2 was on design, implementation, and demonstration of sustainable urban transport concepts in five pilot cities selected from among volunteer cities. One of the cities, Pune, opted out mid-stream; Hubli-Dharwad and Mysore PBS were selected at a later stage. The concepts demonstrated in the five cities are tabulated below. City State Project Loan/Grant Goods and Works Pimpri- Maharashtra BRTS Grant and 2 river over bridges, 2 RoBs, and 2 Chinchwad Loan flyovers for 48.3 km of BRTS on 4 corridors, of which 2 were funded by the World Bank Naya Raipur Chhattisgarh BRTS, NMT, and Grant and Bus depot, shelters, BRTS stations, ITS, ToD Loan and 32 km of cycle track and pedestrian walkways completed. PBS was launched after project closure. Indore Madhya ITS on BRTS Grant AFCS, AVLS, and PIS Pradesh Page 52 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Mysore Karnataka ITS on city buses Grant 500 buses, 105 bus stops, 45 platforms, and 6 bus terminals In-motion 6 degree of freedom bus driving simulator. Mysore PBS Karnataka PBS Grant High-end PBS scheme and operations and maintenance Hubli- Karnataka BRTS, ITS, and NMT Grant and 22 km BRTS, bus depot/workshop, Dharwad Loan shelters, BRTS stations,terminals/interchange, ITS, and NMT In-motion 6 degree of freedom bus driving simulator 10. While there were several challenges that delayed completion/implementation, results from success achieved as on project closure date are encouraging. 11. The city-wise achievements are summarized in the following paragraphs. 2.2.1 Pimpri-Chinchwad 12. The Pimpri-Chinchwad BRTS project comprises four BRTS corridors of total 48.3 km. Of these, two corridors were included for financing under SUTP. The project involved construction of two new road- cum-BRT corridors (19 km). • Design and construction of flyover with RoB at Nashik Phata (8 km) • Design (Empire Estate flyover) and construction of bridge on Pawana River, flyover, and RoB with approaches and ramps from Kalewadi Phata to Dehu Alandi Road (Empire Estate flyover, 11.2 km) • ITS • Three bus terminals • Passenger access on two corridors • Bridge at Dange Chowk 13. Out of four, three BRT corridors are operational. Corridor 2 (14.5 km, linked but not World Bank funded) was launched on September 5, 2015 and Corridor 3 (8 km) was launched on November 28, 2015. ITS implementation on all corridors was done outside the project by PMPML which operates the bus services in the twin cities of Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, however, with technical inputs from SUTP. The Corridor 1, 14.6 km on Old NH4 (Mumbai-Pune road), was launched on August 28, 2018. 14. The BRTS network integrates the city which was divided by two geographical obstructions. The ridership in Corridor 2 is 80,000 and in Corridor 3 is 17,000. 2.2.2 Indore 15. ITS and AFCS on BRTS corridor were launched on June 23, 2018 in Indore. This demonstration project supported improved use of public transport and BRTS through implementation of ITS, AVLS, and AFCS as follows: Page 53 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) • Centralized Traffic Control Centre where the 46 upgraded traffic signals were to be monitored and controlled • Traffic surveillance and detection system with sensors/cameras to monitor traffic flow • Interface with general packet radio service (GPRS) and PIS 16. AFCS for integrated public transport included the following: • Off-board fare collection mechanism for BRTS and both on- and off-board fare collection for AICTSL standard buses • Fare integration and extension of services to proposed radio taxi, autorickshaws, IPTs, parking tolls, and so on • Central computer system • Depot computer system • Ticket office terminal - to issue contactless smart card and add value and enquiry centers • Call center for card holders • Interface with GPRS and PIS 17. The current ridership in the BRTS corridor is 71,000 per day, which has increased from 43,000 in 2014. The earning per km has also increased from INR 62 to INR 90 post ITS including arresting of leakages. User satisfaction has increased mainly due to shorter wait times, shorter travel times, and smart card. Overall city bus ridership has also increased by 35 percent (2,28,000) because of seamless integration. 2.2.3 Naya Raipur 18. The intercity transport system envisaged for Raipur and Naya Raipur (a greenfield capital city, 28 km away from Raipur city) was designed with focus on the need/requirement of a public mass transportation system that would be efficient and cut down the use of personalized modes of transport systems. There were three loan components—Development of Cycle Track and Pedestrian Walkways; Development of Bus Depot, Bus Terminal, and Bus Shelters; and Development of ITS and Security Control System. Technical assistance study on ToD and preparation of a Regional Mobility Plan were also envisaged. 19. The various subcomponents of the project included the following: • Implementation of BRTS o Additional lanes on proposed road networks for providing dedicated roads for BRTS (about 7 km) o Cycle tracks and pedestrian walkways (32 km) o Rolling stock including BRT Buses (with left- and right-side boarding) and feeder service - minibuses o Bus stops/bus shelters o Bus terminals o Bus depots o Global Positioning System (GPS)/PIS and ticketing system o Control and information centre (including off-board fare collection) • ToD Page 54 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) • Mobility plan for the region • Capacity-building activities • Project preparation • Implementation expenses and M&E. 20. NMT works comprising construction of cycle tracks and pedestrian walkways/footpaths (32 km), cross-drainage structures, and road furniture including signage were completed on March 31, 2017. After modification of the proposed road cross-sections and detailed review of the proposed designs, the value of proposed works had increased by about INR 23 million. NRDA has constructed table top pedestrian (bus passenger) crossings with signboards at the bus station locations through this contract. 21. BRT Lite. Three BRT corridors were planned of which Corridor 1 is implemented as BRT Lite; Corridor 3 is planned as BRT, and Corridor 2 as a public transport service. • Corridor 1: Raipur Railway Station-NH6-Capital Complex in Naya Raipur (25 km) • Corridor 2: Kabir Nagar (Raipur)-NH43-Capital Complex in Naya Raipur (35 km) • Corridor 3: Along the main east-west axis of Naya Raipur, between NH43 and NH6 (17.8 km) 22. All construction works of bus workshop depot and control center, eight bus shelters, and a pickup point near Old Mantralaya have been completed except some finishing works. Construction of another pickup point at Raipur Railway Station has increased the value of contract as a variation. The BRT Lite between Raipur and Naya Raipur is operational with effect from May 1, 2017. 23. The mode share of public transport is 40 percent (about 6,000 passengers, including employees). 24. ITS. ITS had been installed and commissioned in Naya Raipur. Control center has been equipped with application servers, database on AVLS and FCS servers, leased lines, closed circuit television (CCTV), and video wall. Buses have been equipped with CCTV, PIS, and BTCU. 25. SUTP is an enabler for Naya Raipur to grow along a low carbon path. Naya Raipur was first to notify ToD in July 2015. The Regional Mobility Plan has also been finalized. 2.2.4 Mysore ITS 26. To support development of sustainable urban transport in Mysore, the project implemented an ITS on city bus services. The aim of the project was to enhance bus operations by improving operational and managerial efficiency in the bus transport system. The project covered 500 buses, 105 bus stops, 6 bus terminals, and 45 boarding platforms in Mysore city and acquisition of a motion-based driving simulator for drivers’ training activities. 27. The Mysore ITS came on board on November 17, 2012 and became fully operational on October 1, 2015. 28. The ridership has increased by 15 percent (1.7 percent of annual ridership due to ITS implementation) with 6 percent fewer buses and increased user satisfaction. Page 55 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 29. The ‘MITRA’ smartphone app of Mysore has over 2,100 downloads with an average rating of 4.9 from 207 reviews. Other notable achievements include the following: • Reduction in average waiting time for commuters at bus stops from 20 min in 2012 to 12 min in 2018 • Increase in user satisfaction levels to 95 percent in 2018 from 65 percent in 2012 • Notable improvements in punctuality • Reduction in bunching of buses at bus stops • Reduction in staff ratio (5.5 in 2011–12 to 5.0 in 2017–18) • Reduction in crew ratio per schedule (4.07 to 3.76) 2.2.5 Mysore PBS 30. The project entailed setting up a high-end PBS scheme within Mysore and its operations and maintenance. The Mysuru Public Bicycle Sharing project was the last to come on board (November 11, 2015). With 550 bikes (530 normal and 20 geared), 52 docking stations, and a central control centre, the scheme was inaugurated for public use on June 4, 2017 by the Chief Minister of Karnataka and now has more than 9,700 registered users. 2.2.6 Hubli-Dharwad 31. The most ambitious of the six pilot projects came on board on March 20, 2013. The project comprises 22 km BRTS (17.5 km of dedicated corridor and 5.25 km of mixed traffic lane), 2 bus depots, 1 workshop, 31 bus stops, 2 terminals, 1 interchange between city bus service and BRT, ITS on BRTS, 4 km of NMT, 6 foot over bridges (FOB), 1 RoB, and 3 grade separators. 32. A complete transformation of the public transport system has been observed. The trial run of the BRTS started on October 2, 2018 with 100 buses. The ridership observed is 65,000 per day. The travel time has reduced from 1 hour to 35 min (express service) and 45 min (ordinary service). ITS and e-ticketing for entire system is being undertaken. 3. Challenges 33. The various challenges met during the implementation of SUTP are described in the following paragraphs. 34. Training. Often nominees could not be spared and capacity went underutilized. 35. Technical assistance studies. Time overruns were mainly due to a fuzzy understanding of the terms of references. Implementation • Often, the contractors assigned with implementation work did not possess the right capacity. • Appreciation of the essence of environment and social safeguards is insufficient. • Evolving designs and plans during execution led to cost/time overruns. Page 56 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) • Availability of rolling stock was inadequate. • Ownership of the public transport project was not defined. • Land acquisition and resettlement in urban context became protracted and problems were underestimated. • Nonavailability of plans of underground utilities led to delays. 4. Learnings from the Project The learnings from the project are summarized in the following paragraphs. Administration and Reporting • Continuity of dedicated team of project officials, appropriately delegated the administrative and financial powers, is crucial for completion of such projects in an efficient manner. Procurement • Procurement plans need to be instruments of planning and control. • Internal approval processes for bid process management and contract monitoring were fuzzy and need to be crystalized. • Interface management in contracts should be built in. Execution of Engineering Work at Sites • Direct contact at apex levels helped in getting approvals from railway/highway authorities. • The role of the PMC as a third-party inspector was not correctly appreciated by PIUs. • Unavailability of skills to deliver the ‘designed concepts’ in available time. • Timely availability of good for construction drawings would have avoided abnormal delays and increases in costs. AFCS Implementation • The complexity of applicable guidelines of the Federal Bank (RBI) was not appreciated in totality while conceptualizing open loop fare collection systems. Financing and Disbursement • Delay in implementation of SUTP and JNNURM scheme’s closure; the related components (mainly rolling stock) were either not procured or were further delayed as the PIAs had to obtain funds from their state governments or internal resources. Page 57 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) ANNEX 6. GHG EMISSIONS ANALYSIS Introduction 1. This annex estimates the GHG benefits associated with six urban transport projects undertaken as part of SUTP. These were undertaken in five separate cities (two projects being in Mysore) and ranged from substantial BRT projects to a bicycle sharing project, as described in Annex 5. General Methodology 2. All projects were evaluated using a common methodology in which the volume of travel by various modes was compared before and after the project was implemented, with these volumes then being converted to emissions depending on the mode used. 3. Although several gases contribute to global warming, carbon dioxide is by far the dominant one and the annex concentrates on this alone. 4. The data used in the analysis have largely come from monitoring reports that had been undertaken on a regular basis during the project. However, some of the project components have only recently been completed, and for those, estimates have been made based on the results of similar projects. 5. The emissions by mode in practice would vary slightly between projects, depending on local geography and traffic conditions which can affect fuel consumption and hence emissions. However, location-specific fuel consumption data are only partially available and instead a standard set of fuel consumptions, based on Indian conditions, has been adopted (table 6.1). Table 6.1. Fuel Consumption by Mode Adopted for Analysis (2019) Fuel consumption Fuel consumption Kg CO2 Mode Fuel type Occupancy l/vkm l/pkm /pkm Motorcycle Petrol 0.025 1.5 0.017 0.039 Three wheeler Diesel 0.04 2.4 0.017 0.045 Taxi Petrol 0.12 2.1 0.057 0.131 Car Petrol 0.12 2.1 0.057 0.131 Minibus Diesel 0.17 10.0 0.017 0.045 Company bus Diesel 0.30 30.0 0.010 0.027 Public bus Diesel 0.30 42.0 0.007 0.019 BRT bus Diesel 0.27 40.0 0.007 0.018 Note: pkm = passenger-km; vkm = vehicle-km. 6. Over time, fuel consumption is assumed to improve, by about 1 percent per year, while the fuel mix for each vehicle type will change. Of these, the most significant is that cars are assumed to progressively shift to 40 percent being electric powered by 2047. Page 58 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Pimpri-Chinchwad 7. The project in this city implemented four BRT corridors, two of which were new constructions which also provided shorter routes for other modes. The GHG benefits thus consist of the difference in emissions between users transferring from other modes to the BRT and non-BRT users with savings in emissions arising from the shorter distances created by the two new corridors. Corridor 3 8. This 8 km corridor runs east-west with a largely new alignment and provides a new corridor not only for the BRT but also for general traffic, saving around 3 km compared to the alternative route. It has an estimated average BRT patronage of 10,000 per day. 9. The estimated savings from the new alignment are based on an AADT of 14,300 vehicles and assume that the average vehicle saves half the shorter distance (that is, 1.5 km). The GHG savings are 3,607 kg per day or 1,315 ton per year. At the eastern end of the alignment, there is now a flyover at the Kasarwadi intersection which also generates fuel (and thus GHG) savings, estimated at 74,000 L per annum, saving an additional 185 ton of CO2 . The combined savings due to the new alignment are thus 1,500 ton in 2019, increasing over time as traffic grows. Total savings in 2019–28 are 18,000 ton and 25,000 ton in 2029–38. 10. Table 6.2 summarizes the key assumptions of the ‘with-project’ and ‘without-project’ scenarios for the estimation of the savings from the diversion of traffic to the new BRT service. Table 6.22. Key Assumptions for Pimpri-Chinchwad Corridor 3 Passenger-km/day (thousands) Without With project project BRT City bus Total City bus 2019 80 80 34 Growth rates (% per year) 2019–2028 5 3 2029–2048 2 — 1 % diversion from non-PT modes Minibus MC/2W/3W Car NMT 2019 5 54 18 23 2029 5 40 45 17 2048 5 30 55 10 Note: 2W = Two wheeler, 3W = Three wheeler; MC = Motorcycle; PT = Public transport. 11. The estimated difference in CO2 emissions is 7,500 ton in 2019–28 and 16,000 ton in 2029–38. Total savings, including those from route realignment are 25,500 ton in 2019–28 and 41,000 ton in 2029– 38. Corridor 4 Page 59 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 12. Corridor 4 is also an 8 km east-west corridor, which includes a major overpass at Empire Estate. It had not opened by late 2018. This corridor also saves distance, but rather less, about 0.7 km. The traffic volume in 2018 that would be affected by the corridor is about 28,000. As with Corridor 3, the traffic mix is dominated by motorcycles but there are significantly fewer cars. 13. The estimated reduction in GHGs caused by the shorter alignment is correspondingly low, despite the higher traffic flow, at 325 ton per year. The saving due to the new overpass at Empress Estate is, however, larger than for Corridor 3 at 750 ton in 2019. Combined, the realignment CO2 savings are 10,000 ton in 2019–28 and 14,000 ton in 2029–38. 14. As this corridor is not yet open, little data are available on likely BRT patronage. However, it is reasonable to assume that it will draw from the same modes as in Corridor 3, that is, primarily, motorcycles and autorickshaws. Given its proximity and physical similarity to Corridor 3, the same savings from diverted traffic have been adopted for Corridor 4, that is, 3,700 ton in 2019–28 and 9,300 ton in 2029–38. Total savings are 14,000 ton in 2019–28 and 23,000 ton in 2029–38. Corridors 1 and 2 15. Both these corridors run north-south along existing main roads. Corridor 2 (14 km) opened in 2015 and Corridor 1 (12 km) in late 2018. They have almost identical bus frequencies and similar traffic mixes (table 6.4). Table 6.3. Key Assumptions for Pimpri-Chinchwad Corridors 1 and 2 Passenger-km/day (thousands) With project Without project BRT City bus Total City bus 2019 560/480a 560/480 314/269a Growth rates (% per year) 2019–2028 2 — — 1 2029–2048 1 — — 0.5 % diversion from non-PT modes Minibus MC/2W/3W Car NMT 2019 0 57 19 24 2029 0 50 30 20 2048 0 30 55 15 Note: 2W = Two wheeler, 3W = Three wheeler; PT = Public transport. a. First value is Corridor 2, second value is Corridor 1. 16. The estimated difference in CO2 emissions for Corridor 2 is 32,000 ton in 2019–2028 and 51,000 ton in 2029–2038. Savings for Corridor 1 are 28,000 ton in 2019–2028 and 44,000 ton in 2029–2038. 17. Total savings for all four corridors, including those from route realignment, are 99,000 ton in 2019–28 and 159,000 ton in 2029–38. Page 60 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Raipur 18. The objective of the Raipur SUTP is to provide high-quality travel between Raipur and the newly developed administrative center of Naya Raipur, some 20 km from Raipur itself. 19. In the absence of the project, those needing to travel between Raipur and Naya Raipur would probably have to depend on a combination of minibuses and shared taxis, together with a skeletal public bus service. 20. By the end of 2018, the BRT and associated conventional public bus services accounted for 40 percent of all trips between Raipur and Naya Raipur. This share is forecast to increase to 50 percent as Naya Raipur continues to grow and BRT/bus services are further developed. 21. Table 6.4 summarizes the differences between the ‘with-project’ and ‘without-project’ scenarios. Table 6.4. Key Assumptions for Naya Raipur Passenger-km/day (thousands) Without With project project BRT City + 50% Total City +50% govt bus govt bus 2019 84 123 70 105 Growth rates (% per year) 2019–2028 4 — — 3 2029–2048 2 — — 1 % diversion from non-PT modes Minibus MC/2W/3W Car NMT 2019 62 36 2 0 2029 55 37 8 0 2048 37 42 21 0 Note: 2W = Two wheeler, 3W = Three wheeler; PT = Public transport. 22. The estimated difference in CO2 emissions is 19,000 ton in 2019–28 and 42,000 ton in 2029–38. Mysore ITS 23. This project is the implementation of ITS on 500 buses on nine corridors in Mysore city, which began operations in October 2015. 24. The key features of ITS implemented are designed to allow real-time monitoring and tracking of buses, allowing passengers to have more timely and accurate information while also improving and reporting fleet efficiency. Page 61 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 25. The bus operator estimates that it has gained 1.6 percent additional passengers as a result of the introduction of ITS and it has also been able to improve its vehicle occupancy by 5 percent, thus allowing it to carry more passengers with fewer vehicles. 26. Table 6.5 summarizes the differences between the ‘with-project’ and ‘without-project’ scenarios. Table 6.5. Key Assumptions for Mysore ITS Passenger-km/day (thousands) Without With project project BRT City bus Total City bus 2019 0 2,590 2,590 2,549 Growth rates (% per year) 2019–2028 3 2 2029–2048 2 1 % diversion from non-PT modes Minibus MC/2W/3W Car NMT 2019 30 30 40 0 2029 25 30 45 0 2048 20 30 50 0 Note: 2W = Two wheeler, 3W = Three wheeler; PT = Public transport. 27. Based on these assumptions, and the improved vehicle occupancy, the estimated difference in CO2 emissions is 57,000 ton in 2019–28 and 85,000 ton in 2029–38. 28. In addition, the improved management information has allowed the bus operator to reduce its dead running by 1.9 percent or 1,800 vehicle-km per day. This saves 450 L of fuel each day, equivalent to 400 ton of CO2 over the year. When this is included, the total savings are 61,000 ton in 2019–28 and 89,000 ton in 2029–38. Indore 29. The project objective is to implement an ITS on the BRT corridor in Indore initially along AB Road, with a subsequent extension to the citywide network. The corridor is 11.5 km with 22 bus stops and 15 signalized intersections. The BRTS began passenger operations in May 2013. 30. The project was progressively operational from late 2016. By late 2018, patronage was 19 percent higher on the BRTS than it had been in 2016. About 10 percent of this can be attributed to natural growth, based on previous years’ trends, leaving 8 percent as the impact of the ITS and traffic signal coordination. Page 62 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Table 6.6. Key Assumptions for Indore ITS Passenger-km/day (thousands) Without With project project BRT City bus Total City bus 2019 493 — 493 454 Growth rates (% per year) 2019–2028 4 — — 3 2029–2048 3 — — 2 % diversion from non-PT modes Minibus MC/2W/3W Car NMT 2019 38 50 3 90 2029 35 45 10 10 2048 30 40 20 10 Note: 2W = Two wheeler, 3W = Three wheeler; PT = Public transport. 31. The estimated difference in CO2 emissions is 5,000 ton in 2019–28 and 11,000 ton in 2029–38. 32. The introduction of the ITS - in late 2018 saw an increase in recorded passengers of 26 percent. Much of this must be due to the new systems eliminating fare evasion. A similar project in Mysore saw passengers increase by 1.6 percent, and the same impact has been assumed for Indore (table 6.7). Demand growth rates have been reduced compared to those estimated for the BRT corridor. Table 6.7. Key Assumptions for Indore ITS (System-wide Component) Passenger-km/day (thousands) Without With project project City bus Total City bus 2019 — 2,286 2,250 Growth rates (% per year) 2019–2028 — 3 — 2 2029–2048 — 2 — 1 % diversion from non-PT modes Minibus MC/2W/3W Car NMT 2019 38 50 3 90 2029 35 45 10 10 2048 30 40 20 10 Note: 2W = Two wheeler, 3W = Three wheeler; PT = Public transport. 33. The estimated difference in CO2 emissions is 20,000 ton in 2019–28 and 32,000 ton in 2029–38. The combined savings from the system-wide and BRT implementation are 25,000 ton in 2019–28 and 43,000 ton in 2027–38. Page 63 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Hubli-Dharwad 34. This project implemented a 22.25 km BRT route between the twin cities of Hubli and Dharwad. 35. Before the project, normal city bus and private city buses ran between the two cities and carried about 70 percent of the passengers moving between the cities. Trial operations began in December 2018 and have attracted around 50 percent of the previous conventional bus passengers. Although overall passenger boardings have increased by up to 20 percent, this is largely because of the passengers interchanging from feeder buses to the main BRTS leg. However, passenger-km are expected to increase by 6 percent by attracting passengers from other modes (primarily car) because of the much faster travel time that the BRT will offer compared to the existing main road. 36. Table 6.8 summarizes the differences between the ‘with-project’ and ‘without-project’ scenarios. Table 6.8. Key Assumptions for Hubli-Dharwad Passenger-km/day (thousands) Without With project project BRT City bus Total City bus 2019 2,175 — 2,175 2,052 Growth rates (% per year) 2019–2028 4 — — 3 2029–2048 3 — — 2 % diversion from non-PT modes Minibus MC/2W/3W Car NMT 2019 15 45 40 10 2029 15 45 40 10 2048 10 45 45 10 Note: 2W = Two wheeler, 3W = Three wheeler; PT = Public transport. 37. The estimated difference in CO2 emissions is 70,000 ton in 2019–28 and 131,000 ton in 2029– 2038. 38. The intracity bus services have also increased their patronage, by an estimated 3 percent, since the introduction of the ITS features. Using similar assumptions to table 6.8, the CO2 savings for these services are estimated at 33,000 ton in 2019–28 and 33,000 ton in 2029–38. 39. In addition, the road overbridge included in the project will also reduce emissions by eliminating fuel otherwise consumed while negotiating intersections. This has been estimated as 600 L per day, generating about 1.4 ton of CO2 per day or 500 ton per year in 2019 and increasing with traffic volume in future years. 40. When these savings are included, the total savings from the Hubli project are 108,000 ton in 2019– 28 and 170,000 ton in 2029–38. Page 64 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Mysore Bicycle Scheme This project created a bicycle sharing scheme in Mysore, with a pool of 500 bicycles for hire. The scheme has generated about 900 bicycle trips per day. 25 percent of these transferred from motorcycle, about one-third from public bus and about one-third from walk or were generated. The average distance for bicycle hire in other schemes is 3.5 km and this has been assumed for Mysore. Each day, the scheme therefore saves about 66 kg of CO2, equivalent to 22 ton per year. The average distance for bicycle hire in other schemes is 3.5 km and this has been assumed for Mysore. Each day, the scheme therefore saves about 66 kg of CO2, equivalent to 22 ton per year. Summary 41. Table 6.9 summarizes the GHG benefits for the various project components between 2019–28 and 2029–38. Table 6.9. GHG Savings by Project Component (thousand ton) Project 2019–28 2029–38 Pimpri-Chinchwad Corridor 1 28 44 Corridor 2 32 51 Corridor 3 26 41 Corridor 4 14 23 Subtotal 99 159 Raipur 19 42 Mysore ITS 61 89 Indore 25 43 Hubli 108 170 Mysore PBS 0 0 Total 312 503 Page 65 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) ANNEX 7. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDO 1. The PDO and the GEO, ‘to promote environmentally sustainable urban transport nationally and to improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities’, are evaluated based on the achievement of the following two broad objectives: • Objective PDO1: To promote environmentally sustainable urban transport in India • Objective PDO2: To improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities Objective PDO1: To promote environmentally sustainable urban transport in India Rating: High 2. This objective was achieved and substantially surpassed. It was addressed by the capacity development component of SUTP where a massive but structured capacity-building, knowledge exchange, and training program was launched, targeted at institutions and individuals (officials and practitioners) that led to better understanding and technical competence, and thereby greater willingness and ability to implement environmentally sustainable urban transport. Component 1B activities were aimed at the national level and covered the following key activities: • Development of seven guidance documents in the following important areas, along with city-level support for developing plans and reform strategies in 20 instances to cities that expressed interest: o Guidance documents for setting up and operationalizing UMTA and UTF (city specific support to Amravati, Bhopal, Hyderabad, Kochi, Lucknow, Jaipur, Tiruchirapally) o Guidance documents for setting up and operationalizing Traffic Control Centers and National Urban Transport Helpline (city specific support to Ahmedabad, Delhi, Guwahati, Mumbai) o Guidance documents for ToD, PBS, and NMT (city specific support to Bhopal, Mumbai, Vadodara, Gurgaon, Aizawl and Vizag); o Model contracts and guidance documents thereon for private operation of city buses (city specific support to Jalandhar, Kochi, Mira Bhayandar). • Offerings of LUTP program included the participation of 207 senior officials in the international offerings and a further 242 officials in the course organized in the India Chapter at CEPT University (Ahmedabad). The India Chapter course included mentoring support to the officials on a live urban transport project, policy, or program. CEPT University organized six offerings of LUTP, while one offering was also organized through IUT toward EoP. A total of 139 projects benefited from mentoring support covering 47 cities and 29 states in the country. 3. At least 16 environmentally friendly urban transport practices and approaches benefited from direct support and were taken forward by the respective national, state, and city officials. The revised target of 6 was overwhelmingly achieved. Page 66 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) Table 7.1. PDO1 Achievement Indicator Target Achieved Number of 6 16 environmentally • At least 7 projects and approaches initiated under LUTP program have been friendly urban successfully adopted by the cities. Based on a review of the LUTP achievements transport in 2017,9 the following model cases and success stories of mentored practices and projects/approaches being taken forward by the officials in their respective cities approaches are highlighted: provided by the o Strategies to decongest Delhi Metro in peak hours (covering differential project that are pricing, multiple interchange points, and so on) are being implemented adopted by cities o Revitalizing city bus in Nagpur o Creating transit-oriented zones in Ahmedabad o Policy guidelines for electric rickshaw o Improving pedestrian infrastructure in Aizawl o Water Metro system in Kochi o Driver training in Delhi Transport Corporation to reduce road fatalities (reduction in fatal accidents from 73 to 28 between 2012 and 2018). • 4 cities proceeded with various reforms (3 on UMTA and 1 on ToD) based on the technical assistance provided as part of the city-specific support under guidance documents: o Kerala Metropolitan Transport Authority Act covering Kochi, Trivandrum, and Calicut passed by the Legislative Assembly of Kerala subject to suggestions by Select Committee o ToD policy issued for MRT investments in Madhya Pradesh. • 4 cities (Bhopal, Chandigarh, Jaipur, and Mira-Bhayandar) proceeded to implement city bus modernization programs under the approved GEF Efficient and Sustainable City Bus Services project (P132418) in line with the preparation support extended. • MoHUA released a ToD Policy for MRT systems based on the ToD Guidance Document developed. This is applicable on all rail- and non-rail-based MRT projects with national government support. • Demonstration impacts of the pilots undertaken are visible and the following are worth noting: o Pimpri-Chinchwad BRTS success has led to revival of BRTS plans in the twin city of Pune and the approval of BRTS Corridor 2 works within Pune city limits; o Mysore ITS impact is evident in the scale-up of ITS to the entire KSRTC fleet, and on cities around the country which have been visiting Mysore to learn from the experience of this award-winning project; Bangalore and Chandigarh are the more notable examples; o Mysore PBS success has been an eye-opener for the officials and triggered the PBS project in Bangalore and also the impetus behind the NMT Project Green Links launched for second-tier cities in Karnataka. 4. PDO indicator 1 was modified in November 2015 at the time of the second extension to the project, as it was determined that the original indicator ‘The number of cities that develop an identifiable 9Dingra, Chavvi. 2017. Documenting Select Projects Emerging from Five Years of the Leaders in Urban Transport Planning and Management Program (LUTPM) in India (2012–2017): Final Report. Page 67 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) urban transport planning process (i.e., managed by professional units of government, following certain procedures and guidance, and involving various level of analytical work) increases’ was more process oriented, difficult to measure, and not representative of the activities proposed under the capacity- building component alone. Guidance suggests that a split rating may not be warranted in instances where the activity/project scope remains unchanged or expands. However, the fact remained that the original indicator was also achieved, given the cities highlighted above progressed on the reform agenda (4 cities), the creation of the Hubli Dharwad BRTS Company and the ITS Cell within KSRTC, inclusion of ToD principles in the Naya Raipur Development Plan and mainstreaming of NMT design principles into the Naya Raipur Development Authority (NRDA), and so on, resulting in improved systems and procedures and planning processes. Objective PDO2: To improve the usage of environmentally friendly transport modes in project cities Rating: Substantial 5. Objective PDO2 was addressed by Component 2, which consisted of six demonstration projects in the five participating cities. The basic premise was that (a) the projects would directly improve conditions and operational effectiveness for environmentally friendly modes of urban transport; (b) these improvements would increase perception and satisfaction of users of environmentally friendly urban transport modes and of potential users that currently use other modes; (c) the improved perception and satisfaction would lead to increased usage, by retaining existing users and/or by attracting new users; and (d) the net effect would be a shift in volume and mode share to environmentally friendly modes. 6. At the time of approval, of the six demonstration projects, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Pune, and Naya Raipur would involve substantial investments supported by the IBRD loan and therefore a mode shift in these cities was targeted, and PDO2A specifically measured the impact in these cities as part of the IBRD project. PDO2B was the additional indicator for GEO covering all 6 cities. Following approval, Pune was dropped and replaced by Hubli-Dharwad in 2012. 7. Table 7.2 provides the mode shares for (a) Pimpri-Chinchwad, (b) Naya Raipur, (c) Hubli-Dharwad, before and after project implementation. In all instances, the targets were either fully achieved or substantially achieved. Table 7.2. PDO 2A Achievement Revised Target Indicator Baseline (%) Original Target (%) Actual at EoP (%) (%) Hubli-Dharwad – Public transport 30 Increase in public 33 n.a. mode share increases transport mode share Pimpri-Chinchwad – Modal share 4.2 8 8 8.8 by public transport increases Naya Raipur – Public transport 0 50 40 42.4 trip mode share between Raipur and Naya Raipur increases 8. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the public transport mode share more than doubled to 8.8 percent from just 4.2 percent at the start of the project. A large part of the increase came from the deployment of buses Page 68 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) on the four BRT corridors in 2013 even before the launch of the BRT. Measured average daily ridership on Corridor 2 rose from 67,791 at the time of launch in October 2015 to 82,100 by December 2016, an increase of 19.5 percent. On Corridor 3, the ridership rose from 10,566 at launch in December 2015 to 18,551 in December 2016 (75.5 percent increase) and further to 21,108 in February 2018 (98.9 percent increase from launch). The launch of Corridor 4 will only strengthen the public transport within the city. Surveys indicate a modal shift from personal modes to the extent of 28 percent, with car users accounting for a growing share. The city is proceeding with the development of other BRT corridors and also taken up the improvement of the NMT network along the corridors under the Smart City Project. The decision of Pune City to approve the construction of Corridor 2 within their city limits will further improve the performance of the BRT. The city is also in advanced stages of approving the Parking Policy developed through project support which will help control the indiscriminate parking of personal vehicles along the BRT corridors and improve sustainability of the project. 9. In Naya Raipur, the launch of the interim bus service with the launch of the state government headquarters in the greenfield state capital ahead of the completion of the BRT Lite in 2014 helped arrest the shift of commuters between the old and new city to personal modes. With the launch of the BRT Lite, the public transport mode share of trips between the two cities reached 42.4 percent and 32 percent within Naya Raipur, overachieving (105.5 percent) the revised target of 40 percent mode share and substantially achieving (84.4 percent) the original target of 50 percent, respectively. A 36 percent mode shift was observed from personal vehicles including 7 percent from cars. Further, the formal adoption of ToD principles into the Naya Raipur Development Plan 2030 provided an approved framework which will encourage urban development and transport policies supportive of environmentally friendly urban transport. 10. The Hubli-Dharwad BRTS has begun trial runs and has a daily ridership of 55,000. Based on the data from trial runs, it is evident that in the total commute time of 65–70 minutes between the two cities, there is a 15-minute time saving between the BRT regular service and the city service in mixed traffic. Further, there is an almost 30-minute saving with the BRT express service confirming the basic value proposition of the BRT. A preliminary survey of BRT users suggests that 18 percent had shifted from personal modes and 9 percent of those were from cars and that satisfaction levels with travel time, reliability, and facilities are high. Further, the upgrades to the depot and terminal infrastructure and deployment of integrated ITS for the entire public transport in the city are expected to have a positive impact on the performance and attractiveness of the entire system resulting in an improvement in the mode share. 11. Therefore, the achievement of Objective PDO2A is deemed to be Substantial. Table 7.3. PDO2B Achievement Indicator Baseline Original Target Revised Target Actual at EoP Forecast CO2 emissions over 10 0 128,000 128,000 312,000 years in the cities participating in Component 2 are at least 128,000 tons lower than BAU forecasts Page 69 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) 12. The project targeted a GHG emission reduction of 128,000 tons of CO2 owing to the demonstration projects. Based on EoP outcomes, the emissions over the first 10 years are estimated to reduce by 312,000 tons and another 427,000 tons over the following 10 years (see annex 6 for details). This indicator is also overachieved and surpassed, and the achievement of Objective PDO2B is deemed High. Table 7.4. GHG Emission Reduction in thousand tons of CO2 Project 2019–28 2029–38 Pimpri-Chinchwad 99 159 Raipur 19 42 Mysore ITS 61 89 Indore 25 43 Hubli 108 170 Mysore PBS 0 0 Total 312 503 13. In terms of contribution to PDO2, bus ridership in Mysore increased by 12 percent between preimplementation baseline in April 2012 and the M&E surveys in 2015.10 The M&E survey attributed a 1.69 percent increase to ITS due to improved service quality and passenger information. However, the actual ridership impact of the ITS was probably higher since the ITS data had facilitated bus and crew savings through rescheduling, the assets then being redeployed to other routes. This enabled passenger growth without the need to increase the fleet or staffing levels. 14. Mysore ITS has become a model of utilizing ITS and data and of building ITS into company-wide processes. A wide range of benefits has been documented for the Mysore ITS, both in the M&E studies 11 and in the case studies prepared by the World Bank and U.K. Department for International Development and the Korea Green Growth Partnership.12 Additional benefits include improvement to bus service quality in terms of punctuality, reduced incidents of bus bunching and rash driving, reductions in accidents, and reductions in fuel consumption. 15. In Indore, following the opening of the first BRTS corridor, the M&E studies13 found significant improvements in transit ridership on the corridor (increase from 9,000 to 40,000 trips daily), in journey time (reduction by about 20 minutes end-to-end), and in customer satisfaction (increase from 64 percent to 82 percent). With the AVL, PIS, and AFCS and smart card integration becoming operational on both the BRTS and city service, there have been significant impacts on ridership—increasing from average daily ridership of 60,332 (169,671) in end-2017 to 70,843 (228,740)—a 17 percent (35 percent) increase in overall ridership by end-2018 and 65 percent of users indicating an improvement in travel time reliability and reduction in travel and wait time. Further, the shift was predominantly from two-wheelers, Tata Magic, and three-wheelers. Although, the original project scope included ITS for the BRT only, its 10 ICT/Kimley Horn; Mysore ITS M&E. 2015. “Presentation on Temporal Survey and Lessons Learnt.” 11 ICT/Kimley Horn. 2018. “Monitoring & Evaluation of Deployment of ITS at KSRTC Mysore.” 12 Korea Green Growth Partnership. 2017. “Management and Operational Practices of ITS at an Urban Bus Company - Case Study, Vol. 2 - Mysore, Karnataka.” 13 Abhinav, Aakar. 2017. “User Satisfaction Survey” (Indore BRTS) . PowerPoint presentation. Page 70 of 71 The World Bank Sustainable Urban Transport Project (P110371) integrated implementation across the entire city bus service is already yielding significant dividends as evidenced from the sharp increase in ridership on the BRT as well as the entire city bus system. 16. The Mysore PBS had 8,700 registered users in March 2018, at project close. About 70 percent of rides were less than 30 minutes and 91 percent less than 60 minutes, which are currently the free periods. Bicycle utilization was at an average of 1.81 transactions per day in June 2018. Based on the first-year experience, the contribution of Mysore PBS to Objective PDO2B though modest has been significant in informing the systems in other cities in the country, more specifically Bangalore where the PBS system design has been informed by the Mysore experience. There are plans for significant expansion of the citywide system to 400+ docking stations. 17. The achievement of PDO2, taking account of PDO2A and PDO2B ratings, is deemed Substantial based on original targets and revised targets. Therefore, the overall efficacy rating for achievement of PDO (PDO1+PDO2A) and GEO (PDO1+PDO2A+PDO2B) is pegged at Substantial. Page 71 of 71