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Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Table of Contents 9 Azerbaijan 107 Slovenia 13 Belarus 111 Tajikistan 17 Bosnia and Herzegovina 115 Turkey 21 Bulgaria 119 Turkmenistan vi Figure 1. A chronology of significant disasters affecting the ECA region. 25 Croatia 123 Ukraine 29 Cyprus 127 Uzbekistan vii Box 1. Return Periods 33 Czech Republic ix Table 1. Annual Average Affected Population and 37 Estonia GDP for Floods and Earthquakes. 41 Georgia 133 Table 2. Climate Models Used for Flood Risk x Figure 2. Annual Average GDP Affected by Floods. 45 Greece Estimates. 49 Hungary x Figure 3. Annual Average GDP Affected by Earth- 133 Table 3. RCP and S5P Scenario Combinations quakes. 53 Kazakhstan Used to Estimate Future Flood Risk. 57 Kosovo xi Figure 4. GDP Affected by a 100-year Flood. 61 Kyrgyz Republic xi Figure 5. GDP Affected by a 1o-year Flood Relative 65 Latvia to the Country's GDP. 69 Lithuania xii Figure 6. GDP Affected by a 250-year Earthquake. 73 Macedonia, FYR 77 Moldova xii Figure7. GDP Affected by a 250-year Earthquake Relative to the Country's GDP. 81 Montenegro 85 Poland 89 Romania 93 Russian Federation 1 Albania 99 Serbia 5 Armenia 103 Slovak Republic ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Wc u'wuld likect akoleg tl emsad1nCiuasta mere nyvåmvd lI ic PrDInum omhi påu mmåston Fise w l like to ,ý)ank GJ,DI j" , lep c ialEy FjanileCiS- G l CesquIicrc, AlajlìI na SM>son, Sänmne Hallg Brnden pirngnma, Kesko Saom,and An1W1,1 uea Wc ývudalolke -,o tIlaik thie WVorld Ba,11s E,CA DIM Tcanr: David Sijslcil, EfAyhIan, Vkta Bget,Tl uulearnd Ko lakuuUhi. WVe thank Hesseý,l W,insenmjus fron Delt,ares, andl Philip WVard from »,he VUIves: nsedn lor the 1lood risk, modeling. WVe alsýo thank Jajnies Daniell an d Anid]reas SCliafer for1 the carj quk rilnk 1n ddeling. WVe thnk lý ManC Jålråt må Fernalnda Sernìa MNIr 0=1, dior Csntutiolns Läsa FunTa ParMccl [vii ýicr edikorral gudjJ,A.iMp or t11C (La.a Viual liol and ' t 112coreteau, [o jni . Ko,liCk Mm mnn and An~egil Tånsen fKr pieprång Ise pubåicka-oc, iv Introduction T he Europe and Central Asia' (ECA) region is affected regularly by natural hazards, such as floods, earth- G reece Croatia quakes, droughts, landslides, and wildfires. Although Crete earthquake 365, Alexandria destroyed. Zagreb earthquake 1880, The Great Zagreb Earthquake." catastrophic events are not as frequent as in other parts of the Turkey Moldova world, in the last three decades alone, this region experienced Constantinople earthquake 1502. Rorania earthquake 1940, Chisinau partially destroyed close to 500 significant floods and earthquakes that caused 50,000 fatalities, affected nearly 25 million people, and re- Yerevan earthquake 1679, city destroyed. Skopje earthquake 1963, city destroyed. sulted in US$80 billion in damage. In fact, close to 30 percent of the capitals of the ECA countries have been at one time or another devastated by earthquakes and floods. The historical record of large disasters goes back to ancient Gec,where an earthquake in Crete destroyed Alexandria DhonkHnayUbksa Gre ece, weraneatqakinCeedetoedAexnriaDbvikPest floods 1838. Tashkent earthquake 1966, city destroyed. (Figure 1). Much more recently, in 1838, massive floods earthquake 1667. destroyed Pest, Hungary, and in the 1960s, earthquakes Romania Turkmenistan devastated Skopje, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedo- Bucharest earthquake 1802, 'The Big Ashgahat earthquake 1948,10 percent of country's nia (1963), and Tashkent, Uzbekistan (1966). The impacts of Earthquake of Gods Friday. population died. these disasters are pervasive. They displace and kill people, Azerbaijan destroy property, incapacitate industries, disrupt day-to-day Shamakhi earthquake 1667, 80,000 people died. life, and often affect the economic development of countries Turkey for years after the event. Antioch earthquake 526, 250,000 people died. Figure 1. A chronology of signoficant disasters affecting the EMA region. 1. In this publication, we follow the World Bank classification of ECA cou ntries; The impacts of natural hazards will most likely become even Previous country-level risk estlmates in the ECA region were Baltic States; Belarus, Estonia, [atvia, Lithuania, Poland larger in the future due to changes in climate and growth based in part on records in the EM-DAT International Di- Caucasus States;Macedonaia,eeMhaiAanawGeorgia CentralAsian States; Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Takista, TUrkmear bs n stan, Uzbekistan expected to experience economic growth in the near future. historical events. This information provides little insight into European Union States; Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, The combination of this growth with old building stock, the probability of event occurrence, however, as the data are Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine (unplanned) urbanization, and increased exposure creates incomplete and of uneven quality and they lack homogeneity. Russia South East European States; Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovi na, Kosovo, FYR conditions conducive to natural disasters. If governments do More robust risk estimates require additional data. Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey not act to reduce their exposure and vulnerability to them, their countries'Brisks will increase dramatcally. The country risk profiles for floods and earth quakes present- 2. D. Guha-Sapir, E. Below, Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster ed in this publication are based on quantitative risk assess- Database, Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, www. ments derived using global flood and earthquake models. emdat.be. The objectives are to inform governments of the levels of risk mary at the top of the first page, however, are based on the provincial3 and country levels for different return periods (2, their countries face and facilitate discussions on how they can unrounded risk estimates. 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500, and 1,000 years) and as annual av- become more resilient to both current and future risk. erages. The earthquake results also include information on re- Thetabe n te frs pae how th 1 prvinesor ll tu rn period s o f 1, 20, and 2 00 yea rs. Affected p opul ation an d provinces, if the country has fewer than 10-most at risk, as affected GDP are defined as those experiencing flood water ranked by the annual average GDP affected by floods or earth- at any depth or ground motion intensities equal to or greater quakes, as a percentage of each province's GDP'. The accompa- than Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI. Estimates are cal- T he profiles for the ECA countries presented here indicate nying map uses color to display the GDPs of all the provinces. culated in absolute numbers and relative to the population or Sthe flood and earthquake risks to which the countries are Note that a map of population at risk will look very similar to GDP of the province or country. In this publication, we mainly exposed on national and provincial levels. Annual avenages are that of GDP at risk as the correlation between the two char- portray the relative numbers, since they are better indicators often used to convey the gross domestic product (GDP) and acteristics is high. The sizes of the colored discs represent the for comparing the impact of a disaster on communities. In population at risk. The annual average affected GDP is defined relative amounts of the provinces'GCDPs affected annually by addition, the earthquake model was used to estimate fatalities as the affected GDP per year, averaged over many years. Since floods (blue) and earthquakes (orange). and capital losses. Capital losses represent the estimated cost the annual average does not represent the impact of a single The middle pages of each profile assess the country's flood of replacing and repairing damage to gross capital stock-that event, it is important to realize that much larger impacts can and earthquake risks in greater detail. The map shows the is, the fixed assets in a country. be caused by less frequent, more intense events, annual average affected GDP of the country relative to its Any consideration of major investments to reduce risk or provinces' cDs, which can be used to identiy the provinces increase resiliency needs to take into account changes in risk with high percentages of DP at risk annually. The vertical caused by climate change and socioeconomic developments. bars on the maps represent the percentages of GDP affect- For this reason, risk information has been generated not only ted by a 10- and 100-year flood or earthquake, respectively for current conditions and exposure, but also for conditions A 100-year flood means that in any given year there is a 1 This risk information can be used to identity the provinces in 208B0, ac co rding to two cl im ate s cenanrios defin ed by percent chance of a flood of a large magnitude occurring, expected to be vulnerable to more extreme, but less frequent, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for climate It does not mean that a 100-year flood will occur every events. In addition, a horizontal line across the bars indicates change and two socioeconomic conditions defined by Shared 100 years. It is possible to have two 100-year floods in the the percentage of annual average affected GD. Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for socioeconomic trends. same or concurrent years. The same is true for a 250-year The final page displays information on the current annual Climate is presumed to have no impact on seismic risk, so the earthquake; there is a 0.4 percent chance of a 250-year average risk of fatalities and capital loss from earthquakes. earthquake model considers changes in 2080 exposure only earthquake occurring in any given year. Like the table on the first page, rose diagrams show these data by modeling all five SSPs. for the top 10 provinces, or for all provinces if the country has fewer than 10. In addition, exceeaance probability curves are The first page of each profile provides an overview of the provided for flood and earthquake risk An exceedance curve country and its risk. At the top is a short summary listing pop- represents the probability of exceeding any given amount 3. Model results have been calculated at administrative level land at ulation and GDP and, in terms of both absolute numbers and of affected GD. The line depicts the exceedance probability country level. In this publication, we will refer to administrative level 1as percentages, the population and GDP affected by, respectively, curve for 2015 conditions, whereas a striped band spans the provincial level. a 100-year flood and a 250-year earthquake. Also provided range of exceedance probabilities consistent with a set of are the capital loss and fatalities, in absolute amounts and socioeconomic and climate scenarios projected for 2080. 4. For more information on the RCPs, seeM. Meinshausen, S. J. Smith, percntaes,expetedfro a 20-yar arthuak. TeseK. V. Cal[vin, 1, S. Da niel, M. L. T. Kain uma, I.-F Lamarque, K. Matsu moto, percentages, expected from a 250-year earthquake. These et at., "The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations anid Their Extension figures give an immediate indication of how much risk a coun- from 1765 to 2300." Climatic Change 109 (2011; special issue): 213-41, try is facing in case of an extreme, but less frequent, event. As DOlJO.1007/s10584-011-0156-z. For information on the SSP scenarios, explained in the methodology and limitation sections of this see a special issue of the journal Climate Change on Shored Socioeconomic introduction, the uncertainties in the absolute risk estimates or all the countries in the ECA region, population and Pathways (2014), e.g., N. Nakicenovic, R. J, Lerpert, and A. C. Janetos, are large. Therefore, the absolute risk estimates have been IGDP affected by floods and earthquakes are estimated at "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research Introductory Essay,' Climatic Change 122 (2014; rounded to one significant digit. The percentages in the sum- special issue): 351-61. DOac10.1007s10584-013-0982-2. The uncertainty in projections of climate and socioeconomic ed once they experience flood water at any depth or ground The earthquake risk results include estimates of fatalities and conditions is large and becomes larger as the projections motion intensities equal to or greater than MMI VI. In reality capital loss, in addition to the affected population and GDP. reach farther into the future. The spread in outcomes for the effect of a flood or earthquake on a population or an The additional information is generated using vulnerability the risk estimates reflects the uncertainty due to changes in economy depends on depth of the water or the intensity of the functions that convert ground motion into fatality and damage climate change scenarios and socioeconomic development ground motion. The actual impact of 2 meters of flood water, estimates. and to the variability of the different climate models used to for example, is likely to he significantly greater than that of 10 estimate flood risk. centimeters of flood water, hut the model results will show the same amounts of affected GDP for both 2 meters and 10 events and their associated fatalities, affected population, and A detailed description of the methodology and models used in centimeters of water. damage inflated to 2015 dollars, which provides context for this publication is given in the technical annex at the end. interpreting the modeled impacts. When comparing historical Another limitation is associated with the Global Flood Risk events, however, one should not only inflate the dollars, but with IMAGE Scenarios (GLOFRIS) model, which can be used also account for the growth of a country's population and to assess large-scale river flood risks as well as global risks, wealth over time; to do so, one can either use risk models or although it does not assess coastal, flash, or urban floods, normalize historical records. T he information presented in the profiles is meant to in- Because information on flood defenses is sparse on a global form governments of the levels of river flood and earth- scale, the version of GLOFRIS used for this publication does Afew of the profiles also include modeled estimates of the quake risk in their countries and to facilitate discussions with not account for flood protection measures and will therefore fatalities and damage that would be caused by a historical them on the need to reduce these risks and increase resilience overestimate the affected population and GDP for return pe- earthquake if it were to occur today The 1969 Banja Luka to natural disasters. Estimates given in terms of fatalities, af- riods lower than the design protection level of existing flood earthquakes in Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example, caused fected population, affected GDP, and capital loss provide a first defenses. This in turn leads to an overestimation of the annual 14 deaths and $50 million in damage. If one corrected just for impression of the risk in each country and the risk ranking average affected population and GDP. inflation, the damage today would be more than $300 million of its provinces. As the information is produced using global in 2015 dollars. Because of population growth, urbanization, flood and earthquake risk models, it is important to be aware In general, uncertainties in absolute flood risk estimates are and increased wealth, however, both the damage and fatalities of the limitations of the methodologies used for both hazards. large, while estimates of relative changes in risk under differ- would actually be much greater. Model estimates suggest over ent scenarios or variability across space are more robustbh 400 fatalities would occur, and the damage would be approx- The national decision makers for whom these risk assess- imately $4 billion-over 20 percent of Bosnia and Herze- ments are intended can use them to focus attention on areas govina's GDP. These figures could be even larger with future of their countries at high risk and support the prioritization growth in population and wealth if appropriate efforts are not of studies for further quantifying it. The assessments should 5. H. Ape[, B. Merz, and A. H. Thieken, Quantification of Uncertainties in made to increase resilience to earthquakes. Similar arguments not e usd fo thedesin ofriskredutionmeasres,such Fltood Ri sk Ass ess m ents, "In ternational Journ a/ of River Ras in Man agemen t can be made for flood damage and mitigation of future flood not be used for the design of risk reduction measures, such(2008):149-62, DI 101080/15715124.200&9635344; H. De Moe as flood protection, retrofitting of buildings, or risk-informed and 1. C. 1. H. Aerts, 'Effect of Uncertainty in Land Use, Damage Models risk. urban planning. Such measures require more detailed and and Inundation Depth on Flood Damage Estimates," Natural Hazards 58 calibrated models that include vital information on local (2011): 407-25, DOI: lO.10071s11069-010-9675-6; B. Merz, H. Kreihich condtios, uchas ive prfils, crret fooddefnse, lcal R. Schwarze, and A. Thieken, "Assessment of Economic Flood Damage," conditions, such as river profiles, current flood defenses, local10(2010) 1697-1724, building standards, and soil characteristics, as well as infor- DOI:lo.sl94Inhess-1o-1697-201o. mation on exposure, such as the occupancy and construction 11 the regions in ECA are significantly exposed to both of local structures and the vulnerability of structures to forces 6. P. Bupeck, H. De Moe[, L. M. Brouwer, and J. C. 1. H. Aerts, "How Reliable floods and earthquakes. Floods pose the highest risk for generated by a peril. They also require the extensive engage- Are Projections of Future Flood Damage?" Natural Hazards and Earth Sys- the Baltic States, the European Union States, and the Russian ment of local experts and stakeholders. tenm Sciences 11 (2011): 3293-3306, DOI: 105194/nhess-11-3293-2011. The population and GDP affected by floods and earthquakes 7. A detailed description of the limitations of the LOFRIS model can be have been assessed only as a function of hazard and exposure; found in H. Winsemius and P. Ward, "Flood Risk Profiles Europe-Central 8. A detailed description of the methodology can be found in .E. Daniell, Asia Region," Final project report to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduc- "Development of Soda-economic Fragility Functions for Use in Worldwide tion apd Recovery (GFDRR), Wor id Bank, no. 1209814-n00-ZWS-0002, Rapid Earthquake Loss Estimation Procedures," doctoral thesis, Karlsruhe indicated above, population and GDP are considered affect- 2014. Institute of Technology Karlsruhe, Germany 2014. more significant.0 For example, the GDP affected by a 100- year flood is estimated at $60 billion in Russia (Figure 4), and Annual average affected Annual average affected that of a 250-year earthquake is estimated at $300 billion in Annual average GDP Annual average GDP Turkey (Figure 6). affected population (million US$) affected population (million us$) The view of risk is very different if one ranks countries by the percentage of affected GDP rather than absolute GDP. From Baltic States 800,000 9,000 50,000 600 this perspective, the country to which a 100-year flood poses the greatest risk is, by far, FYR Macedonia, with nearly 20 percent of its GDP affected (Figure 5). The countries at great- Caucasus States 300,000 800 600,000 2,000 est risk from earthquakes are Armenia, Albania and Georgia, in that order, with over 88 percent of their respective GDPs affected by 2 50-year events (Figure 7). Central Asian States 1,000,000 4,000 2,000,000 5,000 European Union Strat U2,000,000 20,000 1,000,000 20,000 States Russian Federation 2,000,000 20,000 200,000 1,000 South East European Sthas 1,000,000 9,000 2,000,000 20,000 States Table 1. Annual Average Affected Population and GDP for Floods and Earthquakes. SOURCE: VALUES FROM MODEL RESULTS OF THIS STUDY. Federation, and while the Caucasus States, the Cental Asian ($20 billion), followed by Poland and Turkey. For earthquakes, States and the South East European states are more affected it is Turkey ($10 billion), followed by Romania and Greece. by earthquakes (see Table 1). by e rthu aes (ee able1).The annual average GDP affected by floods and earthquakes A ranking of the ECA countries by the annual average GDP' af- seems small relative to the total GDP of each country; it is fected by floods (Figure 2) and earthquakes (Figure 3) shows generally less than 5 percent. Figures 4-7, however, show that that average annual affected GDP among the countries varies the impact of more intense and less frequent events, such as over an order of magnitude. For floods, the country with the 100-year floods or 250-year earthquakes, quickly becomes highest annual average affected GDP is the Russian Federation 10. A 100-year flood has a return period of 100 years, which means the probability of a flood's occurring is 1 percent per year. A 250-year earth- 9. Annual average affected GDP is estimated by averaging the affected GDP quake has a return period of 250 years, which means the probability of an by individual floods or earthquakes over a long period of time. earthquake's occurring is 0.4 percent per year. Russian Federation Turkey - Poland Romania Turkey Greece -m m Czech Republic Uzbekistan Slovak Republic Slovenia Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Romania Russian Federation Hungary Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria Croatia Kazakhstan Serbia Hungary Ukraine Azerbaijan Lithuania Georgia Uzbekistan Albania Turkmenistan Poland Greece Slovak Republic Latvia i Armenia BIH Tajikistan a Belarus Serbia Macedonia, FYR Macedonia, FYR Bulgaria Kyrgyz Republic Georgia BIH Azerbaijan Ukraine Albania Czech Repbulic Moldova Kosovo Armenia Cyprus Estonia Montenegro Talikistan Moldova Montenegro Estonia Kyrgyz Republic Lithuania Kosovo Latvia Cyprus Belarus Million US$ 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Million LIS$ 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Figure 2. Annual Average GDPAffected by Floods. Figure 3. Annual Average GDP Affected by Earthquakes. SOURCE VALUES FROM MODEL RESULTS OF THIS STUDY. SOURCE: VALUES FROM MODEL RESULTS OF THIS STUDY. Russian Federation Macedonia, FYR Poland Slovak Republic Turkey BIH Czech Republic Serbia Slovak Republic Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Slovenia Romania Montenegro Hungary i Georgia Slovenia Latvia Serbia Lithuania Croatia Croatia Ukraine Czech Republic Lithuania Tajikistan Uzbekistan Moldova Turkmenistan Kyrgyz Republic Greece Hungary Latvia Romania Belarus Turkmenistan Bulgaria Armenia BIH Albania Macedonia, FYR Poland Georgia Russian Federation Azerbaijan Uzbekistan Albania Ukraine Armenia Belarus Estonia Bulgaria Tajikistan Turkey Moldova Kosovo Montenegro Estonia Kyrgyz Republic Azerbaijan Kosovo Greece Cyprus Cyprus Million US$ 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Figure t. GDP Affected by a 100-year Flood. Figure 5. GDP Affected by a 100-year Flood Relative to the Country's GDP. SOURCE: VALUES FROM MODEL RESULTS OF THIS STUDY. SOURCE: VALUES FROM MODEL RESULTS OF THIS STUDY. Turkey Armenia i -.-.-.-.-.-.-.- Romania Albania Greece Georgia Hungary Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Tajikistan Bulgaria Romania Kazakhstan Montenegro - - -...-.-.-. - Turkmenistan Moldova M22 Slovenia Kyrgyz Republic Croatia m Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Bulgaria Slovak Republic Slovenia Georgia u Macedonia, FYR Serbia im Greece Russian Federation = Kosovo Albania a Croatia Poland Hungary Armenia Turkey Cyprus Cyprus Ukraine Uzbekistan Macedonia, FYR Serbia m Talikistan BIH Czech Republic Kazakhstan Moldova Slovak Republic BIH Ukraine Kyrgyz Republic Czech Republic Kosovo I Poland Montenegro Russian Federation Estonia Estonia Latvia Latvia Lithuania Lithuania Belarus Belarus Million US$ 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Figure 6. GDP Affected by a 250-year Earthquake. Figure 7. GDP Affected by a 250-year Earthquake Relative to the Country's GDP. SOURCE VALUES FROM MODEL RESULTS OF THIS STUDY. SOURCE: VALUES FROM MODEL RESULTS OF THIS STUDY. WORLDBANKGROUP EI GROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $11.6 billion* Albamia 0.ouain29mlin A lbania's population and econo- remainder Albania's per capita KOSOVO my are exposed to earthquakes GDP was $3,990. S ER"A and floods, with earthquakes posing the greater risk of a high impact, This map displays GDP by prow BULrTRIA lower probability event. The model ince in Albania, with greater color results for present-day risk shown in sut i g this risk profile are based on population within a province. The blue circles and gross domestic product (GDP) esti- i t s f e mates for 2015. The estimated damage floods and the orange circles the caused by historical events is inflated to r of er 2015 US dollars. normalized annual average of affected GDI. The largest circles F MCED I Just over half of Albania's population represent the greatest normalized lives in urban environments. The coun- risk The risk is estimated using A v ed % try's GDP was approximately US$11.6 flood and earthquake risk models. billion in 2015, with close to 70 percent T tabT d0 the p derived from services and with in- T e ss dustry and agriculture generating the at greatest normalized risk for k .-4 I hARTHQUAKE each peril. In relative terms, as 'L24 shown in the table, the province a I o Negligible TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES at greatest risk of floods is Shko- der, and the one at greatest risk Gas - ~~~~of earthquakes is Pier In absoluteGP(blinof) EARTHQUAKE terms, the province at greatest ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF risk of floods is also Shkoder, and AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) the one at greatest risk of earth- Shkader Fier quakes is Tirane.0 0 0B Shkoder Fier 9 T eALC Mirdite Lushnje 8 Permet Tirane 7 Tepelene Durres 7 Tepeene Dures 7There is a high Correlation Lushnje Kucove 7 (r=0.95) between the Fier Delvine 7 population and GDP ala Diber Kavaje 6 province. Kurbin 2 Gjirokaster 6 Gin r Tropoje 2 Vlore 6 Masaakaster i Kurhin 6greterGD Aa ia WORLDBANKGROUP ELGF RI R AND EENTRAL A51A (ECA) T he most deadly flood in If the 10- and 100-year bars are the Albania since 1900 occurred same height, then the impact of a 10- S ER B IA in 1992. It killed 11 Albanians year event is as large as that of a 100- and caused close to $12 million in year event, and the annual average of damage. Flooding in 2002 caused one affected GDP is dominated by events BUt GARIA fatality but about twice the damage that happen relatively frequently. KOSOVO ($23 million) of the 1992 flood. Dam- If the impact of a 100-year event is aging flooding also took place on the much greater than that of a 10-year Drina River in 2010. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual aeEdk This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even MaasE,ah ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP - as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more Puke age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large ukes saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual average population affect- of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Albania is about Fr (black). The horizontal line across the 50,000 and the annual average affect- bars also shows the annual average of ed GDP about $200 million. Within GDP affected by floods. the various provinces, the 10- and Durres *Tlrana 100-year impacts do not differ much, Tirane When a flood has a 10-year return so relatively frequent floods have Librahd Affected GOP (%) for period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages. oava t and 100-year return periods occurrence of a flood of that magni- Lushnje in Elbasan ,-b tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability ADRIATIC SEA Kucove G 20 of occurrence of 1 percent per year. rli This means that over a long period of erat _.._ Annual avorage - 5 4 Krce time, a flood of that magnitude will, Ma ISkrapar P Devoll F7 on average, occur once every 100 10-year 100-year years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every VIore 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a PC, Annual Average of Affected GDP(% flood of any return period to occur G rokaster more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not De to happen at all over a long period of a C P time. Sarande Al i WORLDBANKGROUP E GRO AND EENTRALA5IA(ECA) A lbania's most deadly earth- to occur more than once in the same quake since 1900 took place year, or to appear in consecutive in 1920 in Tepelene, with years, or not to happen at all over a SERBIA a magnitude of 6. The earthquake long period of time. and the tsunami that followed caused about 600 fatalities. Since If the 10- and 100-year-bars are the KOSOVO then, Albania has experienced many same height, then the impact of a 10- earthquakes of varying severity. A year event is as large as that of a 100- BULGARIA significant earthquake that occurred year event, and the annual average of in 1967 caused 18 fatalities and $140 affected GDP is dominated by events million in damage. that happen relatively frequently. If the impact of a 100-year event isHa This map depicts the impact of much greater than that of a 10-year earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, event, then less frequent events make represented as percentages of their larger contributions to the annual av- annual average GDPs affected, with erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a greater color saturation indicating province's annual affected GDP seems higher percentages. The bar graphs small, less frequent and more intense Kurbin R MACEDON A represent GDP affected by earth- events can still have large impacts. years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population affect- quake wit returnake perod ofbni 0 Jbou The horizontal line across the bars e a k i n b also shows the annual average of GDP 200,000 and the annual average affected by earthquakes. 10 and 100-year retur periods The annual averages of fatalities and One block -10% 100 When an earthquake has a 10-year capital losses caused by earthquakes return period, it means the probabil- are about 50 and about $100 million, ity of occurrence of an earthquake respectively The fatalities and capital of that magnitude or greater is 10 losses caused by more intense, less Anmy2 aerage 20 percent per year. A 100-year earth- frequent events can he substantial- quake has a probability of occurrence ly larger than the annual averages. 10-year 100-year of 1 percent per year. This means For example, an earthquake with that over a long period of time, an a 0.4 percent annual probability of earthquake of that magnitude will, on occurrence (a 250-year return period Au A o A GOP ( average, occur once every 100 years. event) could cause neariy 3,000 It does not mean a 100-year earth- fatalities and $2 billion in capital loss quake will occur exactly once every (about 20 percent of GOP). 100 years. In fact, it is possible for Tepelene an earthquake of any return perihod Gj kaster a nWORLDBANKGROUP GF DP AND CENTRALA1A (ECA) ' )EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk modeL The potential for greatest capital Kavaje er Kava E an loss occurs in Tirane, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. ---------- ---- ------ ---------------------------- --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----------------------- --------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- ---------- EARTHQUAK EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP E affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 3.0 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different 60 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 2DP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts 2080 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2.0 40 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Al- bania had exterienced a 100-year return period flood event 30 in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $700 million. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the 2015 d- same type of event would range from about $2 billion to 0.5 2015 abo $2.5 billion. If Albania had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about $10 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the Re year)Rtupodysame type of event would range from about $30 billion to . .about $60 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, in 1 and the increase in exposed assets. Probability '%)Probability % All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Uiveirsit6 Catholique de Loiuvain, BruIsel, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi10 7289/V5TD9V7K. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$. WORLDBANKGROUP EI GEROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $10.7 billion* Arm emia 0 Pouato .0 milin IL I N J I I , RUSSIAN' A rmenia's population and economy remainder. Armenia's per capita GDP was are exposed to earthquakes and $3,550. floods, with earthquakes posing the greater risk of a high impact, but lower This map displays GDP by province in probability event. The model results for Armenia, with greater color saturation present-day risk presented in this risk pro- indicating greater GDP within a province. file are based on population and gross do- The blue circles indicate the risk of expe- mestic product (GDP) estimates for 2015. riencing floods and the orange circles the The estimated damage caused by historical risk of earthquakes in terms of normalized events is inflated to 2015 dollars. annual average of affected GDP. The largest circles represent the greatest normalized More than 60 percent of Armenia's pop- risk. The risk is estimated using flood and Koty - I EB I ulation lives in urban environments. The earthquake risk models. reva country's GDP was approximately US$10.7 6ergarkunik billion in 2015, with most derived from The table displays the provinces at greatest Ari services and industry (together about 80 normalized risk for each peril. In relative percent) and agriculture generating the terms, as shown in the table, the province WS raa at greatest risk of floods is Gergharkunik, and the one at greatest risk of earthquakes V zor is Armavir. In absolute terms, the province T UKN TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES at greatest risk of both floods and earth- quakes is Yerevan. EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) LMIC REPLEBLC OF IRAN r Gergharkunik Armavir 5 Kotayk Ararat 5 Syunik 2 Yerevan 3 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) GDP (billions of $), Armavir 2 Shirak 3 Yerevan I Aragatsotn 3 5 foThere is a high correlation [on Koayk 3 I I I(r=0.95) between the Ararat I Gergharkunik 2 1 oEARTHQUAKE o O q population and GDP ofa Vayots Dzor 0 Vayots Dzor 1 EAP 1A A province. Tavush 0 Lori 1 p Shirak u Syunik 1 0 Negligible Arm enia F O DWORLDBANKGROUP Q GFDRR RSK" AROFIENTAA1AEA he most devastating flood year event, and the annual average of R in modern Armenia since it affected GDP is dominated by events gained its independence in that happen relatively frequently. - GE ORG IA 1991 occurred in 1997. It killed four If the impact of a 100-year event is people, affected about 7,000, and much greater than that of a 10-year caused $12 million in damage. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even ing on provinces' GDPs, represented ifa province's annual affected GDP as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. 5ak ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual average population of 10 years (white) and 100 years affected by flooding in Armenia is (black). The horizontal line across the about 40,000 and the annual average bars also shows the annual average of GDP about $100 million. For most Aragatsotn GDP affected by floods. provinces, in which the impacts from 10- and 100-year floods do not differ Y6 evan When a flood has a 10-year return much, relatively frequent floods have rh n k period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages. occurrence of a flood of that magni- For the few in which the 100-year Ararat tude or greater is 10 percent per year. impacts are much greater than the A 100-year flood has a probability 10-year impacts, less frequent events Vay Dzor of occurrence of 1 percent per year. make a significant contribution to the This means that over a long period of annual average of affected GDPTRE time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a ISAIC RL I OF !RAN flood of any return period to occur -Affected GOP (%) for Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) more tha n on ce in th e s am e year, or 1 n 0-errtr eid 10 and 100-year return periods to appear in consecutive years, or not O Orne block =2 20 to happen at all over a long period of time. ovrg fj 10 If the 10- and 100-year bars are the Annua[ average same height, then the impact of a 10- year event is as large as that of a 100- 10-year 100-year ArmeiaWORLDBANKGROUP GFDR ROPE AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA) Arm enia RS[K PROFI A rmenia's worst earthquake If the 10- and 100-year bars are the since 1900 took place in 1988 same height, then the impact of a 10- in Spitak with a magnitude of year event is as large as that of a 100- CERU I 6.8. It caused about 25,000 fatalities year event, and the annual average of and more than $30 billion in damage. affected GDP is dominated by events A 1931 earthquake in Zangezur, with that happen relatively frequently. a magnitude of 6.3, killed over 2,800 If the impact of a 100-year event is people. much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make This map depicts the impact of larger contributions to the annual av- earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a represented as percentages of their province's annual affected GDP seems annual average GDPs affected, with small, less frequent and more intense greater color saturation indicating events can still have large impacts. hirak higher percentages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by earth- The annual average population quakes with return periods of 10 affected by earthquakes in Armenia is rK years (white) and 100 years (black). about 90,000 and the annual average erevan The horizontal line across the bars affected GDP about $300 million. The also shows the annual average of GDP annual averages of fatalities and cap- affected by earthquakes. ital losses caused by earthquakes are k about 400 and about $200 million, When an earthquake has a 10-year respectively. The fatalities and capital return period, it means the probabil- losses caused by more intense, less ity of occurrence of an earthquake frequent events can be substantial- Yeoa ofthat magnitude or greater is 10 ly larger than the annual averages. TURK percent per year. A 100-year earth- For example, an earthquake with quake has a probability of occurrence a 0.4 percent annual probability of of 1 percent per year. This means occurrence (a 250-year return period that over a long period of time, an event) could cause neariy 10,000 earthquake of that magnitude will, on fatalities and $6 billion in capital loss ISL - U L F IR average, occur once every 100 years. (about 60 percent of GDP) It does not mean a 100-year earth- Affected GDP ( for Annual Average of Affected GOP (%) quake will occur exactly once every 10 and 100-year return periods One block = 10% 100 100 years. In fact, it is possible for an e arthqu ake o f any retu rn pe ri od V 6 6r to occur more than once in the same 50 year, or to appear in consecutive Annua[ average 20 years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time. 10-year 100-year WORLDBANKGROUP G D ROP^ A ENTRAL A5IA (ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES T he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential 1for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Syunik 5 Armavir 20 Lo 2 rarat 0 loss occurs in Yerevan, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. EXCEDANE PRBABLIT CURE, 015 ND 080EARTHIQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP 1 affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 35 '50 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid ]ine depicts the affected 30 40 GDP for 20-15 conditions. A diagonpllystriped band depicts 2080 the range of affectéd GDP based on a selection of climate 0 2and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 2.0 30 Armenia had experienced a 100-year return period flood 1.5 event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti- 20mated $700 million. In 2080, however, the affected GDP t 2015 tO from the same type of event would range from about $2 0.5 - -10 2015 billion to about $3 billion. If Armenia had eperienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would 10 50 100 2501 5 100 20 have been about $9 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from Returnperiod (years)Rturn period (years) the same type of event would range from about $30 billion .. r . . .. .... . - - to about $50 billion, due to population growth, urbaniza- 0P bi (%) tion, and the increase in exposed assets. ALL historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respecriveLy, D uh-api, R Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Université CathoLique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Sigiicant Eaithqiake Dataase (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:107289/V5TD9V7K. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$. WORLDBANKGROUP GR EROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $54.6 billion* 5 APopulation 9.7nillion* D A zerbaijan's population and econ- Azerbaijan's per capita GDP was I H I FDRTION omy are exposed to earthquakes $5,630. and floods, with earthquakes posing the greater risk of a high impact, This map displays GDP by prov- Kh!cas lower probability event. The model re- ince in Azerbaijan, with greater sults for present-day risk shown in this color saturation indicating Mingetchaur / risk profile are based on population and greater GDP within a province. 'Divitc1 gross domestic product (GDP) estimates The blue circles indicate the risk for 2015. The estimated damage caused o e f by historical events is inflated to 2015 i. am r US dollars. quakes in terms ofnormalized Emally Just over half of Azerbaijan's population The largest circles represent the flKedabek AhhG a lives in urban environments. The coun- greatest normalized risk- The 0 hn try's GDP was approximately US$54.6 risk is estimated using flood and Tartar Bard a billion in 2015, with close to 60 percent earthquake risk models. N * L derived from industry, most of the reanergnrae y evce,ad The table displays the provinces Sederek KbajrAd AgdAabFiLa1%% ra remainder generated by services, and 9a ibd .L agrcutue aknga sal cntibtin, at greatest normalized risk for Nagorno-karaba kh agriculture making a small contribution.I'P1Ii ____________________ each peril. In relative terms, aslatchinAima shown in the table, the prince -P- TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES at greatest risk of floods is Zard- fterur Bi[Esuvar ob, and the one at greatest risk IBek o . I,#d1 of earthquakes is Ali Bajramly, KUIhat[Y DiebraiI NeAftethal[a EARTHQUAKE In absoluteterms, the province DLJtfa DjaLiabad ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF at greatest risk of floods is Ali 4M Oruad Nkhitchevan/ F AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) Bajramly, and the one at greatest I Zardob Ali Bajramly 6 ijufa City * O RAN ffikkan Ali Bajramly Astara 5 Ordubad City Sabirobad Salyany 5 Kurdamir Cherur 5 AnnualAverageof Affected GOP GDP (billions of) star Neftetchala Utchar 5 Salyay20 There is a high correlation Saatly 0 Geoktchay 4 Agdach Neftetchala 4 U EARTHQUAKE population and GDP ofa Ordubad 3 Lenkoran 4 C 1 province. Akstafa 3 Sahirohad 4 0 Negligible a ijanWORLDBANKGROUP |F RE AN EENTRALA51A(ECA) he most devastating floods If the 10- and 100-year bars are the in modern Azerbaijan since same height,then the impactofa 10- it gained its independence yeareventaslargeasthatofa1 - in 1991 occurred in 2003, affecting year event, and the annual avenge of more than 30,000 people and causing affected GDP is dominated by events / IL TO over $70 million in damage. Floods that happen relatively frequently. in 1995 affected over 1.5 million If the impact of a 100-year event is people and caused about $30 million much greater than that of a 10-year in damage. event, then less frequent events make Khatchmas This map depicts the impact of flood- avagerontiutet h en Anca I ak / CASPIAN SEA ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GOP EaKait as percentages of their annual aver- Z as erenags f her nnalavr- seems small, less frequent and more Tauz -cx Choki Ofuz - age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large - b a - Siya5an saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. r Chamkhor - 'hemakhauKhyiy ages. The bar graphs represent GDP Gvnaj W C Khyz affected by floods with return periods The annual avenge population affect- Geranboy oktchay of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Azerbaijan is about Kedabek - a (black). The horizontal line across the 100,000 and the annual average Tartar UB -< arard Utphareron bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $300 million. AR MEN I'A GDP affected by floods. Within the various provinces, the 10- hadji6bu Whn foo hsa 0-ea rtun and 100-year impacts do not differ Sederek Keladjar ,, Aqdjabedi Ali Bajram[y When a flood has a 10-year return __ much, so relatively frequent floods Nagorno-karabakh - - I period, it means the probability ofImcl peio, t ensth poabliy f have large impacts on these averages. 130 Bjadjan occurrence of a flood of that magni- tude or greater is 10 percent per year. Cherur Fizaib A 100-year flood has a probability A Bile5uvar of occurrence of 1 percent per year. Kuhatty Djebrai This means that over a long period of f Djaitabad eft ala time, a flood of that magnitude will, Nakhitchevan Onubd Zang6lan on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year Yardam[y flood will occur exactly once every And G0e rtr period Cii k 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a 10 ac 10 r 0 flood of any return period to occur I LAM P REPUBLIC Astara tor apan onectivsae year, orno 40 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)OFAN more than once in the same year, orj to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of Annua[ average -u 10 time. r- ,%_ 10-year 100ae -year Aze ba ja WORLDBANKGROUP EL GF R 'ROP AND EENTRAL A5A(ECA) A zerbaijan's worst earth- of any return period to occur more quake in recent decades than once in the same year, or to took place in 2000 in the appear in consecutiveyears, or not U I'I FEDERATION capital city of Baku, with a magni- to happen at all over a long period tude of 6.8. It caused more than 30 of time. fatalities and over $10 million in damage. A 1999 earthquake caused If the 10- and 100-year bars are the one death and nearly $7 million in same height, then the impact of a Evlkh MinetchX'J damage. The most deadly known 10-year event is as large as that ofa g mabelaSEh earthquake in Azerbaijan's history 100-year event, and the annual av- occurred in 1667 or 1668 and erage of affected GDP is dominated caused around 80,000 fatalities. by events that happen relatively fre- quently. If the impact of a 100-year5 This map depicts the impact of event is much greater than that of earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, a 10-year event, then less frequent A represented as percentages of their events make larger contributions to Gandla annual average GDPs affected, with the annual average of affected GDP. greater color saturation indicating Thus, even if a province's annual higher percentages. The bar graphs affected GDP seems small, less fre- DAhk'sT represent GDP affected by earth- quent and more intense events can "_' quakes with return periods of 10 still have large impacts. IaIata years (white) and 100 years (black). Sederok The horizontal line across the bars The no-kara kh also shows the annual average of fce b e In A GD afctd yeathuke.is about 200,000 and the annualav-Saiod GDP affected by earthquakes. erage affected GDP about $1 billion. When an earthquake has a 10-year The annual averages of fatalities return period, it means the prob- and capital losses caused,by earth- ability of occurrence of an earth- quakes are about 800 and about quake of that magnitude or greater $200 million, respectively. The fatal- If Zardab is 10 percent per year. A 100-year ities and capital losses caused by Nakhitchevan earthquake has a probability of more intense, less frequent events A e % occurrence of t percent per year. can be substantially larger than This means that over a long period the annual averages. For example, of time, an earthquake of that mag- an earthquake with a 0.4 percent Djulfa City Ordubad City ae:aJ? nitude will, on average, occur once annual probability of occurrence Afc every 100 years. It does not mean (a 250-year return period event) Annual a 100-year earthquake will occur could cause nearly 40,000 fatalities ISLAMIC REP R LI exactly once every 100 years. In and $6 billion in capital loss (about OFI?,AN fact, it is possible for an earthquake 10 percent of GDP). 10-year 100-year Aze ba ja WORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR ROPE"AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE - ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES Ze 0he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential ,04 for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Lenkoran 3 Al Bairamly 5 Gandia 20 herur 30 loss occurs in Baku, which is not surprising, given the eco- naomc iportance of the province. 28 2U EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015AND2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 The exceedance probablity curves display the GDP T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 4300 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected Z: 250 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2080 0and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 150 20Azerbaijan had experienced a 100-year return period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti- 2015 di 100 mated $1 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from 1 0d the same type of event would range from about $2 billion to < 50 2015 about $3 billion. If Azerbaijan had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have 10 , 50 100 250 been about $40 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the Retu rn p eripot(y ea rs Retin period (years) same type of event would range from about $80 billion to about $240 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, P b (% 1 0-' 10 2 1 0.4, Probability Probability () 1and the increase in exposed assets. All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D Guha-Sapir, R Below, and Ph Hoyois, EM-DAT International Disaster Database (Universite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDCWDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi107289/V5TD9V7K Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$. WORLDBANKGROUP GLI FEROPE ANDCENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAK(E EARTHQUAK(E GDP $56.8 billion* Be la rus 0.Population 9.2 million* LATVIA elarus' population and econo- a small contribution. Belarus's per my are exposed to earthquakes capita GDP was $6,160. and floods, with floods posing RUSSIAN FEDERATION the greater risk. The model results map displays GDP by province in for present-day risk shown in this Belarus, with greater color saturation LITHUANIA risk profile are based on population indicating greater GDP within a prov- 1 and gross domestic product (GDP) ince. The blue circles indicate the risk Virehsk estimates for 2015. The estimated of experiencing floods and the orange damage caused by historical events is circles the risk of earthquakes in inflated to 2015 US dollars. terms of normalized annual average of affected GDP. The largest circles Just over 75 percent of Belarus's pop- represent the greatest normalized ulation lives in urban environments. risk. The risk is estimated using flood in k The country's GDP was approximate- and earthquake risk models. Minsk ly US$56.8 billion in 2015, with close to 90 percent derived from industry The table displays the provinces at Gro1noMin-k and services, and agriculture making greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative and absolute terms, the province at greatest risk of both floods and earthquakes is Vitebsk. TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES Brest- EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF PL AD AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) Vitebsk Vitebsk 0 UKRAINE Gomel 2 Grodno 0 Grodno 2 Mogilev 0 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) GDP (billions of $) srest I Minsk City 0 3 There is a high correlation Mogilev I Minsek 0 LOD(r=0.95) between the Minsk 0 Brest 0 1 population and GDP of a Minsk City 0 Gomel 0 3 EARTHQUAKE C KP province. 0 Negligible Bel rusWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR ROPE AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA) he most damaging flood in If the 10- and 100-year bars are the L AT IA Belarus since it gained its inde- same height, then the impact of a 10- pendence in 1991 occurred in year event is as large as that of a 100- 1993, affecting approximately 40,000 year event, and the annual average of RUSS AN FEDERATI0N people and causing at least $150 affected GDP is dominated by events million in damage. Flooding in 1999 that happen relatively frequently. killed two people, affected more than If the impact of a 100-year event is 2,000, and caused over $5 million in much greater than that of a 10-year damage. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP Virehsk as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual average population affect- of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Belarus is about a Minsk City (black). The horizontal line across the 100,000 and the annual average A bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $600 million. Ix GDP affected by floods. Within the various provinces, the 10- Grodno and 100-year impacts do not differ Moilev When a flood has a 10-year return much, so relatively frequent floods Minsk period, it means the probability of have large impacts on these averages. occurrence of a flood of that magni- tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of B r time, a flood of that magnitude will, - on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year Affected GOP (%) for flood will occur exactly once every 10 ard 100-year return periods 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a One black = 1% 1 flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or 5 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of Annua[ average 1 2 time. 10-year 100-year 0 1 BelrusWORLDBANKGROUP EL GFR ROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA) elarus's worst earthquake affected GDP is dominated by events since 1900 took place in 1908. that happen relatively frequently. LATV IA If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year RUSS AN FEDERATION This map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, larger contributions to the annual av- represented as percentages of their erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a annual average GDPs affected, with province's annual affected GDP seems greater color saturation indicating small, less frequent and more intense higher percentages. The bar graphs events can still have large impacts. L represent GDP affected by earth- quakes with return periods of 10 The annual average population affect- Vitebsk years (white) and 100 years (black). ed by earthquakes in Belarus is about The horizontal line across the bars 100 and the annual average affected also shows the annual average of GDP GDP about $800,000. The annual av- affected by earthquakes. erages of fatalities and capital losses caused by earthquakes are less than & When an earthquake has a 10-year one and about $400,000, respective- return period, it means the probabil- ly. The fatalities and capital losses Minsk ity of occurrence of an earthquake caused by more intense, less frequent of that magnitude or greater is 10 events can be substantially larger Grodno percent per year. A 100-year earth- than the annual averages. For exam- Moqilev quake has a probability of occurrence pie, an earthquake with a 0.4 percent of 1 percent per year. This means annual probability of occurrence (a that over a long period of time, an 250-year return period event) could earthquake of that magnitude will, on cause about $20 million in capital average, occur once every 100 years. loss (less than 1 percent of GDP). It does not mean a 100-year earth- quake will occur exactly once every Brest Gomel 100 years. In fact, it is possible for an earthquake of any return period to occur more than once in the same I L N J year, or to appear in consecutive E years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time. GDP (%) not affected for 10 and Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) If the 10- and 100-year bars are the 100-year return periods same height, then the impact of a 10- Annual average = 0 year event is as large as that of a 100- year event, and the annual average of a / / S C
Gabrovo
10 0-ye ar im pacts do not d iffer much, oi
When a flood has a 10-year return so relatively frequent floods have s9fact BLCKSE
period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages. BLAC SrA
occurrence of a flood of that magni-
tude or greater is 10 percent per year.
A 100-year flood has a probability
of occurrence of t percent per year.
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will,
on average, occur once every 100 YO MAEDONIA e'vogvrad
years. It does not mean a 100-year TURKEY
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a Affected GP for
flood of any return period to occur 10 and 100-year return periods
more than once in the same year, or
to appear in consecutive years, or not
GREECEU
to happen at all over a long period of
tm.Annual Average of Affected GOP ()10
time. i
Annrua[ average 4
If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
same height, then the impact of a 10- o10-year 100-year
Bulg riaWORLDBANKGROUP EL GF RROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
ulgaria's worst earthquake years, or not to happen at all over a
since 1900, with a magni- long period of time.
tude of 7, took place in 1928 9 2 8MAAI A
in Plovdiv. It caused over 120 fa- If the 10- and 100-year bars are
talities and left more than 260,000 the same height, then the impact
people homeless. An earthquake in of a 10-year event is as large as
1977 caused 20 deaths. that of a 100-year event, and the
annual average of affected GDP is(
This map depicts the impact of dominated by events that happen
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, relatively frequently. If the impact
represented as percentages of of a 100-year event is much great-
their annual average GDPs affect- er than that of a 10-year event, Vidin
ed, with greater color saturation then less frequent events make
indicating higher percentages. The larger contributions to the annual
bar graphs represent GDP affected average of affected GDP. Thus, even
by earthquakes with return peri- if a province's annual affected GDP
ods of 10 years (white) and 100 seems small, less frequent and
years (black). The horizontal line more intense events can still have
across the bars also shows the large impacts.
annual average of GDP affected by
earthqakes.The annual average population af-
earthquakes. n
fected by earthquakes in Bulgaria ri oi;
When an earthquake has a 10- is about 100,000 and the annual
year return period, it means the avenge affected GDP about $1
probability of occurrence of an billion. The annual averages of
earthquake of that magnitude or fatalities and capital losses caused
greater is 10 percent per year. A by earthquakes are about 100 and
100-year earthquake has a prob- about $100 million, respectively.
ability of occurrence of 1 percent The fatalities and capital losses
per year. This means that over a caused by more intense, less fre-
long period of time, an earthquake quent events can be substantially
of that magnitude will, on average, larger than the annual averages. Affected GDP (%) for
occur once every 100 years. It does For example, an earthquake with
not mean a 100-year earthquake a GA percent annual probability 10 100
will occur exactly once every 100 of occurrence (a 250-year return CREECI
years. In fact, it is possible for an period event) could cause nearly
earthquake of any return period to 5,000 fatalities and $4 billion in Annual Average o A
occur more than once in the same capital loss (about 8 percent of A 20
year, or to appear in consecutive GDP).
ofth 1- nd10-ya10-year 100-year
BulgariaWORLDBANKGROUP ER "AD ENTRALA51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE (27 EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
T he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Haskovo 2 arna 4Kustndil BIc grad 10 loss occurs in Sofia-city, which is not surprising, given the
economic importance of the province.
----------------- -- - -- --------- -------------------------- - ------------------ -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CIRVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
E affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
9 180 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
g 160 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
7 140 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts
2080 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
6 o120
and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Bul-
5 100 2080 garia had experienced a 100-year return period flood event
4 80 in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $2
2015 3 60 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP frmm the same
--- 40 2ols type of event would range from about $4 billion to about
1i 20 $8 billion. If Bulgaria experienced a 250-year earthquake
event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about
10 2 10 So 1oo 250 $30 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same type
eturn period (years) Return period (years) of event would range from about $70 billion to about $160
04 10 2 1 billion, due to population growth, urbanl4'ation, and the
robability Probability (%) increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be; the National Geophysical
Data Center/World Data Service (NG0C/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi107289/V5TD9yK; and . Daniell and A. Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake
Risk Assessment Country and Province Profilng," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates tor all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$
WORLDBANKGROUP EI GROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $47.6 billion*
Cr0atl*a 0opuain42mlin
HUNG AR
C roatia's population and economy 70 percent derived from ser-
are exposed to earthquakes and vices, most of the rest generated
floods, with earthquakes posing by industry, and agriculture a ar in
the greater risk of a high impact, lower making a small contribution.
probability event. The model results for Croatis per capita GDP was
present-day risk shown in this risk pro- $11,300.
file are based on population and gross
domestic product (GDP) estimates for This map displays GDP by Virovitica podravin
2015. The estimated damage caused by in C wit g li baah
historical events is inflated to 2015 US Pomga-slavonija
dollars. greater GDP within a province. isak-moslavina
The blue circles indicate the risk Primorj StavnDk ro pota Vukoarovijc
Nearly 60 percent of Croatia's popu- of experiencing floods and the
lation lives in urban environments. orange circles the risk of earth-
The country's GDP was approximately quakes in terms of normalized SERBIA
US$47.6 billion in 2015, with close to annual avenge of affected GOR BOSNI AND
The largest circles represent theHEREGIN,
greatest normalized risk. The 10
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES risk is estimated using flood and
EARTHQUAKEE
earthquake risk models. m ER IUK
ZAaknin
The table displays the provinces 0 Neg ibin
FLODEARTHQUAKE at greatest normalized risk for A DRIATIC SEA
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ec prl I
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) shown in the table, the prov-
Medimurje 12 Grad Zagreb 6 ince at greatest risk of floods
Vukovar-srijem 10 Zagreb 4 is Medimurje, and the one at DiIa I a
Sisak-moslavina 7 Krapina-zagorje 3 g r
Zagreb Varazdin 3 r tu
Slavonski Medimurje 2 Grad Zagreb. In absolute terms,
Brod-posav Dubrovnik- 2 the province at greatest risk of There sa high co relation
Osijek-baranja neretva both floods and earthquakes is (r0.95) hetween Fe
Lika-senj Zadar-knin 2 Grad Zagreb. population and GDP ofa
Varazdin 4 Karlovac 1 Dubrovnieretva
Karl0vac d vSibenik edpfrmin
Sibenik m tKoprivnica 1
-mkrizaevkli
Croatia Jft F L 0 0 D WORLDBANKGROUP Q|GFDRR ISK AIEE
In the last 15 years, Croatia was hitaffected GDP is dominated by events
by several floods, most ofthem that happen relatively frequently
with relatively minor impacts. Ifthe impact ofa 100-year event is
Flooding in 2014 killed three people much greater than that of a I0-year 1J
and affected over 9,000. event, then less frequent events nake Modimurje HUNGARY
a larger contribution to the annual
This map depicts the impact of flood- average ofaffected ODE Thus, even
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented ifa province's annual affected GDP SlVEN d n
as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more
age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large
saturation indicating higher percent- impacts.
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP
affected by floods with return periods The annual avenge population affect-
of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Croatia is about
(black). The horizontal line across the 100,000 and the annual average
bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about$1 billion. Within
GDP affected by floods. the various provinces, the 10- and KPr jorkK
100-year impacts do not differ much,
When a flood has a 10-year return so relatively frequent floods have
period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages. SERBIA
occurrence of a flood of that magni-
tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A GOseno
A 100-year flood has a probability On block = tr 40
of occurrence of 1 percent per year.
This means that over a long period of BOSNIA ANO HERREGOINA
time, a flood of that magnitude will, Zadar-knin I 0
on average, occur once every 100 Annla[ average
years. It does not mean a 100-year ADRIATIC SEA
flood will occur exactly once every 10-year 100-year
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
flood of any return period to occur Annua[ Average of Affected GOP
more than once in the same year, or Split-dalmatija
to appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period of
time.
If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
same height, then the impact of a 10- - Dubrovnik-n a tha thatE NE a
yeear event is as large as that of a 100-
year event, and the annual avenbge of
CrO tiaWORLDBANKGROUP EL GF RROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
roatia's worst earthquake took an earthquake of any return period
place in 1667 in Dubrovnik, to occur more than once in the same
with an estimated magnitude year, or to appear in Consecutive
of 7.2. More than 3,000 people were years, or not to happen at all over a
killed, and Dubrovnik (with 5,000 long period oftime. Medimurje HUNGARY
homes at the time) was completely
destroyed. If the same earthquake If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
were to occur today, its estimated same height, then the impact of a
death toll would be more than 1,500 10-year event is as large as that of
and its damage over $7 billion. Other, a 100-year event, and the annual Grad Zagreb
more recent earthquakes included average of affected GDP is dominat-
one in 1927 in Slovac and another in ed by events that happen relatively Bjereb itogora
1962 in Podgora. frequently. If the impact of a 100- virI i a p a
year event is much greater than that oie aaj
This map depicts the impact of of a 10-year event, then less frequent
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, events make larger contributions to
represented as percentages of their the annual average of affected GOPP
annual average GDPs affected, with Thus, even if a province's annual Pio. o tir4osa Vakovar-srijem
greater color saturation indicating affected GDP seems small, less fre-
higher percentages. The bar graphs qunadmoeitsevnscn
represent GDP affected by earth- still have large impacts.
quakes with return periods of 10 A O
years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population 10 and 100-year return periods
The horizontal line across the bars affected by earthquakes in Croatia
also shows the annual average of is about 100,000 and the annual av-
GO fetdb atqae.erage affected GDP about $1 billion.BO AN'H7REOVA
GDP affected by earthquakes.averages of falities and
When an earthquake has a 10-year capital losses caused by earthquakes
return period, it means the probabil- are about 20 and about $300 million, 10-year 100 year
ity of occurrence of an earthquake of respectively The fatalities and cap-
that magnitude or greater is 10 per- ital losses caused by more intense,
cent per year. A 100-year earthquake less frequent events can be substan-
has a probability of occurrence of tially larger than the annual averag-
1 percent per year. This means that es. For example, an earthquake with
over a long period of time, an earth- a 0.4 percent annual probability of
quake of that magnitude will, on occurrence (a 250-year return pen-
average, occur once every 100 years. od event) could cause nearly 1,000 ML L HNEGR
It does not mean a 100-year earth- fatalities and $5 billion in capital loss Dubrovnik-nee
quake will occur exactly once every (about 10 percent of GOP).
100 years. In fact, it is possible for
lf at aWORLDBANKGROUP E|GFDRRE AN CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
( EARTHQUAKE ,3 EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS$) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
47. he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
.7 for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
a- 0S annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Dubrovniik-neretva Pnimorje-gorski
S Varazdin 9 ora1 razdin 2 loss occurs in Grad Zagreb, which is not surprising, given
the economic importance of the province.
6 EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
20 100 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
time periods are shown- A solid line depicts the affected
GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts
12 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
2080 a
08. and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Cro-
73
0 o50 atia had experienced a 100-year return period flood event
in 2015,the affected GDP would have been an estimated $4
billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same
2015
5 25 2015 type of event would range from about $9 billion to about
$16 billion. If Croatia had experienced a 250-year earth-
quake event in 2015,the affected GDP would have been
250 0 50 10 about $20 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same
Return period (years) Return period (years) type of event would range from about $50 billion to about
2 1 0.4 -4 $100 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and
tDbability 0)Pmobability( the increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EMDAT International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and J. Darietland A. Schae-
ter, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP G D R ELUROPE AND CENTRAL AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
RIKPROF]LES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $20.3 billion*Gn
Cyprus 0.ouain12 nlin '
C yprus's population and econo- by industry and agriculture making The table displays the provinces at
my are exposed to earthquakes a small contribution. Cyprus's per greatest normalized risk for each per-
and floods, with earthquakes capita GDP was $16,600. ii. In relative terms, as shown in the
posing the greater risk of a high table, the province at greatest risk of
impact, lower probability event. The This map displays GDP by province in floods is Gazimakusa (Famagusta),
model results for present-day risk Cyprus, with greater color saturation and the one at greatest risk of earth-
shown in this risk profile are based indicating greater GDP within a prov quakes is Famagusta. In absolute
on population and gross domestic ince. The blue circles indicate the risk terms, the province at greatest risk
product (GDP) estimates for 2015. of experiencing floods and the orange of floods is Gazimausa (Famagusta),
The estimated damage caused by circles the risk of earthquakes in and the one at greatest risk of earth-
historical events is inflated to 2015 terms of normalized annual average quakes is Nicosia.
US dollars. of affected GD. The largest circles
represent the greatest normalized
Just over 70 percent of Cyprus's pop- risk The risk is estimated using flood
ulation lives in urban environments. and earthquake risk models.
The country's GDP was approximate- UN BUFFER ZONE Gazim4usa (Famagusta)
ly US$20.3 billion in 2015, with over r
80 percent derived from services, Lefko a (Nicoiia Nicosia MEDITERRANEAN SEA
most of the remainder generated
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES 0
Famagusta
EARTHQUAKE m c b Annual Average of Affected GOP
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF anc
AFFECTED GDP (AFFECTED GOP UN BUFFER ZONE 0 Negligible
GaziTagusa (Famagusta) d Famagusta by EARTHQUAKE
Lefkosa (Nicosia) 0 Larniaca
Girre (Kyrenia) C Gazimagusa (Famagusta) wt GOP (billions of $)
Famnagusta D Paphos
Larniaca i Lefkosa (Nicnsia) a There is a high correlation
Limassol T Nicbsia 0 (r=.95) between the
Nicosia Giroe (Kyre enia) a population and GtP oo r ag
Paphts e Lionassol a province. aver
WORLDBANKGROUP E|GDR ROPE AND ECENTRAL A51A(ECA)
his map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make
flooding on provinces' GDPs, a larger contribution to the annual
represented as percentages of average of affected GDP. Thus, even
their annual average GDPs affect- if a province's annual affected GDP
ed, with greater color saturation seems small, less frequent and more
indicating higher percentages. The intense events can still have large
bar graphs represent GDP affected impacts.
by floods with return periods of 10
years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population affect-
The horizontal line across the bars ed by flooding in Cyprus is about 400
also shows the annual average of GDP and the annual average affected GDP
affected by floods. about $4 million. Within the various
provinces, little impact results from
When a flood has a 10-year return floods with short return periods;
period, it means the probability of thus, relatively infrequent floods have
occurrence of a flood of that magni- large impacts on these averages.
tude or greater is 10 percent per year
A 100-year flood has a probability
of occurrence of 1 percent per year
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will, NGirne (Kyrenia) Gazimausa (Famausta)
on average, occur once every 100
years. It does not mean a 100-year Lefkoga (Nicosia) Nicosia MEDITERRANEAN SEA
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
flood of any return period to occur
more than once in the same year, or
to appear in consecutive years, or not Nicosia Famagusta
to happen at all over a long period of
time.
Paphos
If the 10- and 100-year bars are the Larnaca
same height, then the impact of a 10- UN BUFFER ZONE
year event is as large as that of a 100-
year event, and the annual average of Limasso Affected GOP I(%) for Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
affected GDP is dominated by events 10 and 100-year return periods
that happen relatively frequently. One h[ock 1%
If the impact of a 100-year event is Annual average 0 1 < r 69
much greater than that of a 10-year
10-year 100-year
CypusWORLDBANKGROUP EL GFDRR EAND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
Cy ru @AkR RIS PROFILE
yprus's worst earthquake since years, or not to happen at all over a about 5,000 and the annual average
1900 took place in 1953 in long period of time. affected GDP about $70 million. The
Paphos, with a magnitude of annual averages of fatalities and cap-
6.5. The earthquake caused about If the 10- and 100-year bars are the ital losses caused by earthquakes are
40 fatalities. More recently, a 1995 same height, then the impact of a 10 less than one and about $10 million,
earthquake caused two fatalities and year event is as large as that of a 100- respectively. The fatalities and capital
nearly $7 million in damage. A major year event, and the annual average of losses caused by more intense, less
earthquake occurred in 1222, causing affected GDP is dominated by events frequent events can be substantial-
substantial damage and triggering a that happen relatively frequently. ly larger than the annual averages.
tsunami. If the impact of a 100-year event is For example, an earthquake with
much greater than that of a 10-year a 0.4 percent annual probability of
This map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make occurrence (a 250-year return period
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, larger contributions to the annual av- event) could cause approximately
represented as percentages of their erage of affected CDP. Thus, even if a $800 million in capital loss (about 4
annual average GDPs affected, with province's annual affected CUP seems percent of CUP).
greater color saturation indicating small, less frequent and more intense
higher percentages. The bar graphs events can still have large impacts.
represent GDP affected by earth-
quakes with return periods of 10 te l arae opulation
years (white) and 100 years (black).
The horizontal line across the bars U BUFFER ZONE Girne (Kyrenia Gazima usa (Famagusta)
also shows the annual average of GDP
affected by earthquakes. Lefko4a (Nicosia) *Nicosia MEDITERRANEAN SEA
When an earthquake has a 10-year
return period, it means the probabil-
ity of occurrence of an earthquake
of that magnitude or greater is 10
percent per year A 100-year earth-
quake has a probability of occurrence
of 1 percent per year. This means
that over a long period of time, an Larnaca
earthquake of that magnitude will, on UN BUFFER ZONE
average, occur once every 100 ea rs.
It does not mean a 100-year earth-
quake will occur exactly once every GOP
100 years. In fact, it is possible for 0 ) rotuaffetedf
an earthquake of any return period
to occur more than once in the same
year, or to appear in con ecutive 0 at al ove
WORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR RO" AN CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE - P EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS Cs) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
OT he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
f aT00for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
Aa n n ut annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
loss occurs in Nicosia, which is not surprising, given the
las0ca 0economic importance of the province.
4 )~L~ ~EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 YJ'EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 T he exceedance probability curves display the GDIP
.1 affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
0.5 60 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
0.4 soGDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts
the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Cy-
so prus had experienced a 100-year return period flood event
in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated
2 Jo$40 million. In 2080, however, the affected GDIP from the
20so 80same type of event would range from about $8 million to
2015< 10about $60 million. If Cyprus had experienced a 250-year
earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDIP would have
1 ) 3 to 2 1) Too250 been about $7 billion. In 2080, the affected GDIP from the
Eatun pr od(yers)Retun priod(yers)same type of event would range from about $20 billion to
....... about $50 billion, due to population growth, urbanization,
i and the increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on earthquakes are from the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:10289/V5TD9V7K, and . Daniell and
A. Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP G D R ELUROPE AND CENTRAL AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
RIKPROF]LES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
gGDP $183 billion*0 Qi
Czech Repu b o .
The Czech Republic's population small contribution. The Czech
and economy are exposed to Republic's per capita GDP was
earthquakes and floods, with $17,300.
floods posing the greater risk. The mod- POLAND
el results for present-day risk shown in This map displays GDP by
this risk profile are based on population province in the Czech Republic,
and gross domestic product (GDP) esti- with greater color saturation
mates for 2015. The estimated damage indicating greater GDP within
caused by historical events is inflated to a province. The blue circles nr
2015 US dollars. indicate the risk of experiencing
floods and the orange circles
Close to 75 percent of the population the risk of earthquakes in terms P
of the Czech Republic lives in urban of normalized annual average of Vyhoocsk
environments. The country's GDP was affected GDP. The largest circles StredoceIky
approximately US$183 billion in 2015, represent the greatest normal-
with 60 percent derived from services, ized risk. The risk is estimated Zapadoces , C r raky
most of the remainder generated by using flood and earthquake risk
industry; and agriculture making a models.
The table displays the provinces
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES at greatest normalized risk for
each peril. In relative terms, as hoceiky
shown in the table, the province
at greatest risk of floods is Stre-
EARTHQUAKE docesky. and the one at greatest GERMANY
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF risk of earthquakes is Severo-REPULIC
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) moravsky. In absolute terms,
Stredocesky f Severomoravsky 0 the province at greatest risk of AUSTR A
Vychodocesky F Zapadocesky 0 floods is Praha, and the one at AnalAverage of Affected GDP (%) GOP (billions of $)
Severocesky 3 Vychodocesky 0AnulAeaeoAfctdGPDP(iinsf
lihocesky 3 Severacesky a greatest risk of earthquakes is
Zapadocesky 2 Jihomoravsky 0 Severomoravsky. There is a high correlation
lihomoravsky 2 Jihocesky 0 (r=0.95) between the
Praha 2 Stredocesky 0 1 EARTHQUAKE 4r population and GDP of a
Severomoravsky I Praha 0 province.
o NegligibLe
Czech R publicWORLDBANKGROUP Q |G DR I51K ANOFIEENRL5AEA
he most devastating flood in more than once in the same year, or
the Czech Republic since it to appear inconsecutive years, or not
gained its independence in to happen at all over a long period of
1993 occurred in 2002. It killed 18 time.
people and caused over $3 billion
in damage. A 1997 flood caused 29 If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
fatalities and almost $3 billion in same height, then the impact of a 10-
damage. More recently, flooding in year event is as large as that of a 100-
2013 affected over 1 million people year event, and the annual average of
and caused close to $850 million in affected GDP is dominated by events POLAND
damage. Further floods in 2009 and that happen relatively frequently.
2010 caused over $150 million in If the impact of a 100-year event is
damage per event. much greater than that of a 10-year
event, then less frequent events make
This map depicts the impact of flood- a larger contribution to the annual
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even
as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP
age GDPs affected, with greater color seems small, less frequent and more
saturation indicating higher percent- intense events can still have large
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP impacts.
affected by floods with return periods Z verom ravsky
of 10 years (white) and 100 years
(black). The horizontal line across the exposed to flooding in the Czech
bars also shows the annual average of Republic is about 200,000 and the
GDP ffeced b flods,annual average affected GDP about $4
GDP affected by floods.
billion. For most provinces, in which
When a flood has a 10-year return the impacts from 10- and 100-year
period, it means the probability of floods do not differ much, relatively
occurrence of a flood of that magni- frequent floods have large impacts
tude or greater is 10 percent per year. on these averages. For the few in GERMA
A 100-year flood has a probability which the 100-year impacts are much SL0VAK REPUBLIC
of occurrence of 1 percent per year. greater than the 10-year impacts, less
This means that over a long period of frequent events make a significant 10 and 100-year return periods
time, a flood of that magnitude will, contribution to the annual average of AUSTRIA
on average, occur once every 100 affected GDP.
years. It does not mean a 100-year 00
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a ArLalaverageI
flood ohf any return pe ri od to occ ur
10-year 100-year
Czec Rep blicWORLDBANKGROUP EL GF RROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
az c Re umi * F R RIS[ PROFILES
T he Czech Republic has expe- If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
rienced several earthquakes same height, then the impact of
of magnitude 7 in its history 10-year event is as large as that of a
including one in 1786 in Tesin, one 100-year event, and the annual av-
in 1872 in Gera, and one in 1901 in erage of affected GDP is dominated
Trutnov. by events that happen relatively fre-
quently. If the impact of a 100-year
This map depicts the impact of event is much greater than that of
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, a 10-year event, then less frequent
represented as percentages of their events make larger contributions to
annual average GDPs affected, with the annual average of affected GDP.
greater color saturation indicating Thus, even if a province's annual
higher percentages. The bar graphs affected GDP seems small, less fre-
represent GDP affected by earth- quent and more intense events can
quakes with return periods of 10
years (white) and 100 years (black).
The horizontal line across the bars The annual average population af- ae
also shows the annual average of fected by earthquakes in the Czech * e Vychodocesky
GDP affected by earthquakes. Republic is about 6,000 and the Pa t Stredocesky
annual average affected GDP about .
When an earthquake has a 10-year
Whn neatquk hsa 0yer $100 million. The annual averag- $aaoesy~ everornoravsky
return period, it means the prob- es of fatalities and capital losses Zapadocesky
ability of occurrence of an earth- caused by earthquakes are less than
quake of that magnitude or greater
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year
earthquake has a probability of losses caused by more intense, less lihomoravsky
occurrence of t percent per year. frequent events can be substantially hhocesky
This means that over a long period larger than the annual averages.
of time, an earthquake of that mag- For example, an earthquake with
nitude will, on average, occur once a GA percent annual probability
every 100 years. It does not mean of occurrence (a 250-year return
a 100-year earthquake will occur period event) could cause nearly Affected GP for AnnuaL Average of Affected GDP
exactly once every 100 years. In $800 million in capital loss (about 1 10 and w0-year return periods
fact, it is possible for an earthquake percent of GDP). AUSTRIA One block 4
of any return period to occur more
than once in the same year, or to 2
appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period Anua -Lh 1
of time.
10-year 100-year
Cze h R pub icWORLDBANKGROUP E|GFDRR s"AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS Cs) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
T he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
e annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
loss occurs in Severomoravsky, which is not surprising,
00
oe ao,; given the economic importance of the province.
on~Sk oo ooadsek
EARTHQUAKE he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 Iaffected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
100 45varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
100 oe45 e
time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
S GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts
5 35 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of cli ate
208 a2 30 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if the
60 SCzech Republic had experienced a 100-year return period
20 flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been
Ile10
2080QAK an eimaeda$20 pbillion. Inu2080dhowever the afetD
EXCEE2015 10BA ILT GDPVE 2 1 AN 20 0E C E A C PR B BLT CU V , 0 5A D20 0afromcte b ,sam e t ey lofs v ntw ud erng ae s fo rb u
20 $40 billion to about $90 billion. If the Czech Republic had
5 4experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the
41;_ DP affected GDP would have been about $5 billion. In 2080,
Ru 100iod0 10 p0 A00ars) the estimated affected GDP from the same type of event
~etun ferlo (yars)Retrn prio (yets)would range from about $10 billion to about $40 billion,
0 2 1 04 10 2 1 due populationgrowh, urbanization, andmthe increasein
:Probablity (%) ..Probabilti (%) . - exoe ses
25 Czc Reu li had exposed assets yer eur ero
All historical data on floods arnd earthquakes are from, respectively, D. Guhae-Sapir R? Belw, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DATzInternationalfDisaterPDatabase (Uniiversite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emndat.be, andl. Daniell
arnd A. Schaefer, 'Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Rsk~ Assessment Country and Province Profiling," finalreport to GFJDRR, 2014. Darnage estimates for all historical eventslhave been inflated to 2015 US$.
flo vn!i 05 h ffce D ol aebe
WORLDBANKGROUP GR EROPE AND CENTRAL A5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $23.6 billion*
Estomia 0.ouain13mlin
stonia's population and econo- and agriculture making a small con-
my are exposed to earthquakes tribution. Estonia's per capita GDP
and floods, with floods posing was $17,900.
the greater risk. The model results for
present-day risk shown in this risk pro- This map displays GDP by province in
file are based on population and gross Estonia, with greater color saturation
domestic product (GDP) estimates for indicating greater GDP within a prov-
2015. The estimated damage caused by ince. The blue circles indicate the risk
historical events is inflated to 2015 US of experiencing floods and the orange
dollars. circles the risk of earthquakes in
terms of normalized annual average a
Close to 70 percent of Estonia's pop- of affected GDR The largest circles 0 0 Raplamaa larvamaa
ulation lives in urban environments. represent the greatest normalized
The country's GDP was approximately risk The risk is estimated using flood agevmaa
US$23.6 billion in 2015, with nearly 70 and earthquake risk models.
percent derived from services, most of
the remainder generated by industry, The table displays the provinces at o RU 5 5 IAN
greatest normalized risk for each per- Saaremaa Parnumaa artuEDERATION
il. In relative terms, as shown in the Viljandimaa
table, the province at greatest risk of
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES floods is Parnumaa, and the one at 0
greatest risk of earthquakes is Tartu- o Potvamaa
maa. In absolute terms, the province Vlgamaa
EARTHQUAKE at greatest risk of both floods and
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF earthquakes is Harjumaa. Vorumaa
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%)
Parnumaa Tartumaa 0
Jogevamaa Raplamas 0
Tartumnaa Parnumnaa 0
Tda-rturaa Parrvumaa 0 Annual Average of Affected GOP ()GOP (billions of $
Ida-Virumas U Polvamnas 0
Harjumnaa 0 Hiiumaa 02
Hapjumaa Hari2rnaa 0 - -There is a high correlation
ala amaa1 (r=0.95) between the
La-ViruaaEARTHUAKE 9 population and GDP of a
Laanrnaa 0 Idaa-Viruaa a EARTHQUAKEpovice
Polvamaa 0 Laanemaa 0
Viljandimaa u Saaremaa 0 0 Negligible
EstniaWORLDBANKGROUP GFDR ROPE AND ECENTRAL A51A(ECA)
his map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make
flooding on provinces' GDPs, a larger contribution to the annual
represented as percentages of average of affected GDP. Thus, even
their annual average GDPs affect- if a province's annual affected GDP
ed, with greater color saturation seems small, less frequent and more
indicating higher percentages. The intense events can still have large
bar graphs represent GDP affected impacts.
by floods with return periods of 10
years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population affect-
The horizontal line across the bars ed by flooding in Estonia is about Ta
also shows the annual average of GDP 6,000 and the annual average affect-
affected by floods. ed GDP about $100 million. Within
Harjumnaa
the various provinces, the 10- and
ZLaane-Virumaa :M
When a flood has a 10-year return 100-year impacts do not differ much Ida-Virumaa
period, it means the probability of so relatively frequent floods have
occurrence of a flood of that magni- large impacts on these averages. r
tude or greater is 10 percent per year - Raptamaa lr
A 100-year flood has a probability HiiumaaL
of occurrence of 1 percent per year.
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will,
on average, occur once every 100 L U S I A N
years. It does not mean a 100-year Saaremaa Parnumaa Tartumaa FEDER AT ION
flood will occur exactly once every Vi[jandima
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
flood of any return period to occur
more than once in the same year, or Polvamaa
to appear in consecutive years, or not Valgamaa
to happen at all over a long period of
time. Vorumaa
Ifte 0 ad10-ea ar reteAffected GOP ()for Ann ualI Avera ge of Affecte d GODP()
If the 10- and 100-year bars are the 1 n 0-errtr eid
same height, then the impact of a 10- 1 n 0-errtr eid
year event is as large as that of a 100- One block=1% 10
year event, and the annual average of 0
affected GDP is dominated by events
that happen relatively frequently. Annual average 2 ATVIA
If the impact of a 100-year event is
much greater than that of a 10-year 10-year 100-year
EstniaWORLDBANKGROUP GFDR ROPE AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
E stonia has experienced to happen at all over a long period
several modest earthquakes. of time.
Its worst since 1900 took
place in 1976 in Osmussaar. Earlier If the 10- and 100-year bars are
earthquakes happened in 1602, the same height, then the impact
1670, and 1881, all in Narva. of a 10-year event is as large as
that of a 100-year event, and the
This map depicts the impact of annual average of affected GDP is
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, dominated by events that happen
represented as percentages of their relatively frequently. If the impact
Tallinn
annual average GDPs affected, with of a 100-year event is much greater
greater color saturation indicat- than that of a 10-year event, then Harjumaa
ing higher percentages. The bar less frequent events make larger
Laane-Virumaa
graphs represent GDP affected by contributions to the annual average Ida-Virumaa
earthquakes with return periods of affected GDP. Thus, even if a
of 10 years (white) and 100 years province's annual affected GDP ....
(black). The horizontal line across seems small, less frequent and Raplamanarvamaa lrm
the bars also shows the annual more intense events can still have Hiiumaa Laanemaa
average of GDP affected by earth- large impacts.
Jogevamaa
quakes.
The annual average population af-
When an earthquake has a 10-year fected by earthquakes in Estonia is Parnumaa
return period, it means the prob- about 200 and the annual average T R USIAN
Saaremaa TartumanO
ability of occurrence of an earth- affected GDP about $3 million. The VLaandimaaaFEDERATI0N
quake of that magnitude or greater annual averages of fatalities and
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year capital losses caused by earth- --------
earthquake has a probability of quakes are less than one and about Polvama
occurrence of t percent per year. $700,000, respectively. The fatal- Valgaimaa
This means that over a long period ities and capital losses caused by
of time, an earthquake of that mag- more intense, less frequent events Vorumaa
nitude will, on average, occur once can be substantially larger than
every 100 years. It does not mean the annual averages. For example, LATV A
a 100-year earthquake will occur an earthquake with a 0.4 percent
exactly once every 100 years. In annual probability of occurrence GDP (%) not affected for 10 and Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
fact, it is possible for an earthquake (a 250-year return period event) 1oo-year return periods
of any return period to occur more could cause about $30 million in Annual average = 0
than once in the same year, or to capital loss (less than 1 percent of
appear in consecutive years, or not GDP).
Es on aWORLDBANKGROUP E|GFDRRE AN CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
00
0 ihe rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
0 4 s Zfor greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Searemaa 20,0 - i rumaa 7 000 Raplamaa 0 Laane-Virumaa 0 loss occurs in Harjumaa, which is not surprising, given the
economic importance of the province.
0
-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------------- ------ ------------ --- - -
4 ,m (~EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE. 2015 AND 2080 KJ. EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
E affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
2.5 0.6 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
2.0 0. GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts
the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
20801. and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Esto-
0.3 nia had experienced a 100-year return period flood event in
1.0 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $600
M ~2080
0.2 million. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same
2015 1
0.5 /=w type of event would range from about $1 billion to about $2
200.1 billion. If Estonia had experienced a 250-year earthquake
event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about $80
10 50 100 million. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same type of
turn period (yeas) Return period (years) event would range from about $200 million to about $500
10 2 1 4 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the
robaPbihty o robability (%) increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on earthquakes are from J. Daniell and A. Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all histori-
cal events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP G D R EUROPE AND CENTRAL AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
GQ U M RI5K PROF] LES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $13.7 billion*
G eo rgila 0.Population 3.9 million*
eargia's population and econo- t 0pretdrvdfo evcs ntrso omlzdana vrg
my are exposed to earthquakes mos fterm.in rgneaed o fetdGP h ags ice
and floods, with earthquakes byidsranagiutrmaig rpeettegetsnomlzdrs.AnlAvaeoffecdGP
posing the greater risk of a high asalcnrbto.Gogaspr Ters setmtduigfodad1
impact, lower probability event. The cpt D a 350 atqaers oes
model results for present-day risk ThsmpdslyGDbypoicin Tetbedslsteprvcsat1ERHUK
shown in this risk profile are based Goga ihgetrclrstr- gets omlzdrs o ahprl
on population and gross domestic 0Ngiil
product (GDP) estimates for 2015. tinindiaingraerGDPwtia Inrltvtrm,ssh ninheab,
The estimated damage caused by prvneThblecrlsidctth thprvneagetstikoflods
historical events is inflated to 2015 rikoexeinigfodanth Tbls,adteoetgetstikofGP(linsf
US dollars.
just over half of Georgia's population o ohfod n atqae sTiii
lives in urban environments. The
country's GDP was approximately
US$13.7 billion in 2015, with closeAbhaautRe.USINFDATO
G eorgia-to 70 percent derived from services, in terms of normalized annual aveage
most of the remainder generated of affected GDP. The largest circles
aL iby industy and agriculture making represent the greatest normalized risk. aal
posig th greterriskofa igha small contribution. Georgia's per The risk is estimated using flood and 1
nowcapita G was $3,500. earthquake risk models.
show in hisriskprofle re bsed This map displays GDP by province in Thtaldipysheroncst
aGeorgia, with greater color satura-
producttiD)estimate . tion indicating greater GDP within a I
the atprovince. The blue circles indicate the
hrisk of experiencing floods and the
S sorange circles the risk of earthquakes e i
lte term,le dpaysithe atreatnest rikTeeiathg r[t
Zemo~~~~~1=.5 between thet Msht-Mint Kv Kl
Just over hlf of Georga's populaton 4 orebthelst nlzd erthqkes Tahpeils. pp[to n O
IIeni reI tee trmseasishownintheptabl
country'sce aDPrewtesariprooifloodli
US$13.7 billioniin2015, with closetStreatestfEriskTof
eatqae sKvemo Kartly In abso-At.Re.
KakheiAbkhaz . Rep.
0 h -LnnuahumieandeKofmAf(lower)GDPa(e)
1100 EARTHQUAKE
AFFECTEDGDP (%) FFECTEDGlPli%)sLACK SE
Thereiaihibehocorre[atio
Racha-Leckhumi anopulation 0andtGDP$iofea
MtskhRacha-irnehi 2iZeno (upper)lSwer)ti aneai
Samtskhe-jvakhetir2Samtsahd-aZekhetup
cS -Leche huand 2 Ka ti 61 B L A C KiSE A i M rsktianet
Kvemo (pper) Svaneti Sha-tarti 6
Mketateti i ZIeet (upr va ib
Kvm atiIAdjara Aut. Rep. GuiA
Kakheti
Geo giaWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR ROPE AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
he most devastating floods in When a flood has a 10-year return to happen at all over a long period of The annual avenge population affect-
Georgia since it gained its in- period, it means the probability of time. ed by flooding in Georgia is about
dependence in 1991 occurred occurrence ofa flood of that magni- 100,000 and the annual average
in 1997. In that year, Georgia was hit tude or greater is 10 percent per year If the 10- and 100-year bars are the affected GDP about $400 million.
by two floods, which together caused A 100-year flood has a probability same height, then the impact of a 10 Within the various provinces, the 10-
7 fatalities and over $40 million in of occurrence oft percent per year. year event is as large as that ofa 100 and 100-year impacts do not differ
damage. Flooding in 2012 caused less This means that over a long period of year event, and the annual average of much, so relatively frequent floods
damage ($3 million), but it affected time, a flood of that magnitude will, affected GDP is dominated by events have large impacts on these avenges.
over 100,000 people. Flooding in on average, occur once every 100 that happen relatively frequenly.
2013 affected close to 25,000 people years. It does not mean a 100-year If the impact of a 100-year event is
but also caused limited damage. flood will occur exactiy once every much greater than that of a 10-year Affected GOP (%) for
Other floods occurred in 1995, 2004, 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a event, then less frequent events make 10 and 100year return periods
2005, and 2011, with fewer than flood of any return period to occur a larger contribution to the annual 2%
2,500 people affected and less than more than once in the same year, or avenge of affected GDP. Thus, even
$4 million in damage per event. to appear in consecutive years, or not if a province's annual affected GDP average of Affected GOP
According to a 2015 World Bank seems small, less frequent and more Annual
Post Disaster Needs Assessment intense events can still have large
(in press), the June 2015 flooding impacts. 10-year 100-year
in Tbilisi caused 19 fatalities (in
addition, three people are still miss-
ing), affected over 700 people, and
caused over $20 million in damages. Ti
All these events highlight Georgia's
vulnenebility to floods. They are not
always devastating, but they follow
eafch other quccly aned have a large
100 yers. Infact,itSisnossibllforn
cumulative effect on the countthersa
BLACK SEA
This map depicts the impact of flood-
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented t ht.,fini
as percentages of their annual aver-
age GDPs affected, with greater colorimrnhcKrti<-.
saturation indicating higher percent-
time.i
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP Aa"
affected by floods with return periods hi LML Kakheti
of 10 years (white) and 100 years ae
(black). The horizontal line across the
bars also shows the annual avegge ofo
GDP affected by floods.
Gei WORLDBANKGROUP E GROP AE CENTRALA5IA(ECA)
eorgia's worst earthquake years, or not to happen at all over a The annual average population affect-
since 1900 occurred in long period of time. ed by earthquakes in Georgia is about
1991, with a magnitude of 300,000 and the annual average
7. It caused over 250 fatalities and If the 10- and 100-year bars are the affected GDP about $900 million. The
close to $3 billion in damage. An same height, then the impact of a 10 annual averages of fatalities and cap-
earthquake in 2002 affected nearly year event is as large as that of a 100 ital losses caused by earthquakes are
20,000 people and caused about year event, and the annual average of about 500 and about $500 million,
$500 million in damage. The impact affected GDP is dominated by events respectively The fatalities and capital
of earthquakes in 1992 and 2009 was that happen relatively frequently. losses caused by more intense, less
less extensive. If the impact of a 100-year event is frequent events can be substantial-
much greater than that of a 10-year ly large r than th e ann ual ave rage s.
This map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make For example, an earthquake with Affected GDP for
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, larger contributions to the annual av- a 0.4 percent annual probability of 10 and 100-year return periods
represented as percentages of their erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a occurrence (a 250-year return period One h[ock= 10% 100
annual average GDPs affected, with province's annual affected GDP seems event) could cause about 20,000
greater color saturation indicating small, less frequent and more intense fatalities and $7 billion in capital loss Annual Average of Affected GDP
higher percentages. The bar graphs events can still have large impacts. (about 50 percent of GDP). Annual average
represent GDP affected by earth-
quakes with return periods of 10
years (white) and 100 years (lack).
The horizontal line across the bars
also shows the annual average of GoP
affected by earthquakes. domiate byD
When an earthquake has a 10-year
return period, it means the probabil-
ity of occurrence of an earthquake
oef that magnitude or greater is 10 n
percent per year A 100-year earth-BLCSE
quake has a p robability of ccu rren ce
osfl pelrcent pfer year. Thmis mieans
that over a long period of time, an
earthquake of that magnitude will, on
average, accuvr once evefry 100 yea rs.
It does not mean a 100-year earth-
quake will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for
an earthquake of any return period
to occur more than once in the same Frieisi
year, oer to appear in con ecutive
GeogiaWORLDBANKGROUP E|GDR RO"" AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
T he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Smk JkhAbkhazia Aut Re 0 Kakh 5 loss occurs in Tbilisi, which is not surprising, given the
economic importance of the province.
EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
Taffected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
9 80 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
8 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
2080 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts
6 ;2 2the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
980 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if
5 40 Georgia had experienced a 100-year return period flood
4 o
event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti-
3 mated $1 billion. In 2080, however, affected GDP from the
2015 2 20 same type of event would range from about $6 billion to
1 _2015 about $8 billion. If Georgia experienced a 250-year earth-
quake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been
10 50 100 20 10 50 100 250 about $10 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP fmm the same
Re turn period (years) Return period (years) type of event would range from about $50 billion to about
........ $70 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the
Probability() Probability (increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods, unless otherwise noted, and earthquakes are from, respectively, D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyols, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium).
www.emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA) doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K. Damage estimates for all historical events
have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP G D R EUROPE AND CENTRAL AS1A (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
RIKPROF]LES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $192 billion* E3
Greece 0 P
IJ LG A AR I A
G reece's population and economy the remainder generated by indus-
are exposed to earthquakes and try, and agriculture making a small FYR OF MACEDONIA BLACK SEA
floods, with earthquakes posing contribution. Greece's per capita
the greater risk of a high impact, lower GDP was $17,800.
probability event. The model results for
present-day risk shown in this risk pro- This map displays GDP by provinc
in reee, ithgrate coor atua-Annu al Averag of Affected GDP(%
file are based on population and gross in Gec w g c r a
domestic product (GDP) estimates for lion indicating greater GOP within FO
2015. The estimated damage caused by a province. The blue circles idi- Dytiki Makedonia
historical events is inflated to 2015 US cate the risk of experiencing floods EARTHQUAKE
dollars. and the orange circles the risk of
earthquakes in terms of normalized oNgiil
Just over 60 percent of Greece's pop- annual average of affected GOP The
ulation lives in urban environments. largest circles represent the greatest There is a high correlation
The country's GDP was approximately normalized risk The risk is estimat- (r=0.5) between the
US$192 billion in 2015, with close to 80 ed using flood and earthquake risk population and GDP of a
percent derived from services, most of models. province.
The table displays the provinces at LGP (billions of $)
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES greatest normalized risk for each
peril. In relative terms, as shown in
ithe table, the province at greatest Dyti9don
risk of floods is Anatoliki Makedonia, 000k
DEARTHQUAKE and the one at greatest risk of earth-
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OFnole
AFFECTED GaP %)gAFFECTED GOP (%)a d Te a
terms, the province at greatest risk NoliPgaio
Aatoliki Makedoria IDytiki Ellada 4 offloods isKentriki Makedonia, and
Kai Thraki Ipeiros 3the one at greatest risk of earth -
Thessalia r Voreio Aigaio 2
Ipeiros e lodsioi Nisoi 2 quake is Attiki.
Kerntriki Makedonia f Kentriki Makedonia 2
Dytiki Ellada I Aniatoliki Makedornia 2
Peloporiisos Kai Thraki
Dytiki Makedonia ofSterea Ellada 2
Sterea Ellada oThessalia 2
Attiki PeloponneeiSOS 2 P iE Ds
lomIioi Nisoi o Attiki 1
GreceWORLDBANKGROUP EL GFDRPE" AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
he most damaging floods ina ffected GDP is dominated by events
Greece since 1900 occurred in that happen relatively frequently
1994 and 2003, causing over If the impact of a 100-year event is
$700 million and $800 million in much greater than that of a 10-year
damage, respectively. event, then less frequent events make U ARIA
a larger contribution to the annual
This map depicts the impact of flood- BLACK SEA
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP
as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more
age GDPs affected, with greater color
saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. A
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP
affected by floods with return periods The annual avenge population affect-
of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Greece is about
(black). The horizontal line across the 50,000 and the annual avenge affect- Afftad 10e r
bars also shows the annual average of ed GDP about $600 million. Within
GDP affected by floods. the various provinces, the 10- and 6
100-year impacts do not differ much, Thealia .
When a flood has a 10-year return3
Whn lod a a1-yarrtun so relatively frequent floods have Arnnua[I average
period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages.
occurrence of a flood of that magni- -year -year
tude or greater is 10 percent per year. VorcioAigaio
A 100-year flood has a probability lonioi Nisoi Sterea Eada
of occurrence of 1 percent per year.
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will, Attik
on average, occur once every 100
years. It does not mean a 100-year
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
flood of any return period to occur NotiaAigaic
more than once in the same year, or
to appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period of
time.
If the 10- and 100-year bars are the I
same height, then the impact of a 10- -0Kr-
year event is as large as that of a 100- a
year event, and the annual avengge of
WORLDBANKGROUP EL GFR ROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
reece's worst earthquake of time, an earthquake of that mag- events can be substantially larger
since 1900, with a magni- nitude will, on avenge, occur once than the annual avenges. For exam-
tude of 7.2, took place in every 100 years. It does not mean ple, an earthquake with a 0.4 percent
1953 in Kefalonia and caused over a 100-yearearthquakewill occur annualprobabilityof occurrence (a
450 fatalities. Many people left the exactly once every 100 years. In 250-year return period event) could U iG A R IA
island after the event, reducing its fact, it is possible for an earthquake cause nearly 2,000 fatalities and $20
population to a mere 20 percent of any return period to occur more billion in capital loss (about 8 percent BLACK SEA
of its size before the disaster. The than once in the same year, orto of GDP).
same region was also hit by earth- appear in consecutive years, or not TURKEY
quakes in 1867 and 2011. A 1999 to happen at all over a long period
earthquake in Athens caused close of time.
to 150 deaths and over $6 billion
in damage. More recently, in 2014, If the 10- and 100-year bars are
an earthquake in southern Greece the same height, then the impact Affected GOP for
caused three fatalities and almost 10 and 100-year return periods
$500 million in damage. that ofa 100-year event, and the One block = 10%
annual average of affected GDP is 6
This map depicts the impact of dominated by events that happen
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, relatively frequently. If the impact Annual average
represented as percentages of their of a 100-year event is much greater
annual average GDPs affected, with than that of a 10-year event, then
greater color saturation indicat- less frequent events make larger IonoiNiso
ing higher percentages. The bar contributions to the annual average
graphs represent GDP affected by of affected GOP. Thus, even if a Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
earthquakes with return periods province's annual affected GDP
of 10 years (white) and 100 years seems small, less frequent and
(black). The horizontal line across more intense events can still have
the bars also shows the annual large impacts.
average of GDP affected by earth-
quakes. The annual average population
affected by earthquakes in Greece -NotiRikigaic -
When an earthquake has a 10-year is about 200,000 and the annual av-
return period, it means the prob- enge affected GDP about $3 billion.
ability of occurrence of an earth- The annual averages of fatalities
quake of that magnitude or greater and capital losses caused by earth-
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year quakesareabout50andabout
earthquake has a probability of $700 million, respectively. The
occurrence of 1 percent per year. fatalities and capital losses caused
This means that over a long period by more intense, less frequent mg e
WORLDBANKGROUP E|GDR ROPE AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS$) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
;06.for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
riti 20 Dy ki Ellada 70 ilonioi Nisai 1 Krloss occurs in Attiki, which is not surprising, given the eco-
nomic importance of the province.
i ) EARTHQUAKE h xednepoaiiycre ipa h D
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080
T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
12 800 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values, for two different
Z, time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
10
10 GDP fQr 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts
20800
2080 8 2the range of affected GDP based-on a selection of climiate
8
and Socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if
6 40 208 Z.J Greece had experienced a 100-year return period flood
1event in 201, the affected GOPwould have-been an esti
2015 4mated $3 bdEonXn 2080, however, the affected GP from
200 '~the samefi type of event would range from about $5 billionl
/201
20r to about $10 billion. If Greece had experienced a 250-year
earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have
been about $90 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the
same type of event would range rom about $200 billion to
about $800 billion, due to population growth, urbanization,
to about$10and the inc rease in expos ened assets.
been.... about.. $90 bilin In.. 208..heafecedGD.fomth
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be; the National Geophysical
Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K; and L Daniell and A. Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake
Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$
WORLDBANKGROUP EI GROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $126 billion*
Hunga ry 0.Population 9.8 million*
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ungary's population and to 70 percent derived from services, table, the province at greatest risk is Csongrad, and the one at greatest
economy are eposed to most of the remainder generated by of floods is Csongrad, and the one at risk of earthquakes is Budapest.
earthquakes and floods, with industry and agriculture making a greatest risk of earthquakes is Koma- R
floods posing the greater risk. The small contribution. Hungary's per rom-esztergom. In absolute terms,
model results for present-day risk capita GDP was $12,800. the province at greatest risk of floods
shown in this risk profile are based
on population and gross domestic This map displays GDP by provnce in A Borsodabauj-7emlen
product (GDP) estimates for 2015. Hungary, with greater color satura- Buap &
The estimated damage caused by Szabolci-s7atmar-bereg
historical events is inflated to 2015 a province. The blue circles indicate
US dollars. the riskofexperieningfloods and Heves
the orange circles the risk of earth- 6yo -io n-5 on n s
About 70 percent of Hungary's pop- quakes in terms of normalized annual Hdi
ulation lives in urban environments. average of affected GDP. The largest
The country's GDP was approximate- circles represent the greatest normal- -nagykun-szolnok
ly US$126 billion in 2015, with close ized risk. The risk is estimated using Vas Veszpreme
flood and earthquake risk models. N do a r
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES The table displays the provinces at
greatest normalized risk for each per- Zalar
i. In relative terms, as shown in the nagkunison
Sonogy onac sk n
EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%)ROMA
Baranya
Csongrad 1 Komarom-esztergom 2 CR0ATIA
lasz-nagykun-szolnok 13 Budapest I SERB A
Gyor-moson-sopron Pest I
Bekes Zala I
Szabocs- Veszprem i Annual Average of Affected GOP (%) GDP (billions of $)
szatmar-bereg Heves I
Teves 2 No rad 1 20 There is a high correlation
Borsod-abauj- lasz-nagykun-szolnok 1 EARTHQUAKE I (r=95) betwee the
zemoplen Vas 1ATQAEl 1 d I d population anid GOP of a
Bacs-kiskun province.
Hajdu-bihar o Negligible
Hun aryWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR ROPE" AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
POLAND
T he most deadly flood in Hun- flood will occur exactly once every
gary since 1900 took place in 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
1970 and caused about 300 flood ofany return period to occur CZ ELH REPUBLIC
fatalities and over $500 million in more than once in the same year, or
damage. More recently, in 1999, two to appear in consecutive years, or not
floods occurred that together caused to happen at all over a long period of
at least eight fatalities, affected over time.
100,000 people, and brought over E
$400 million in damage. A single If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
flood in 2010 caused no fatalities same height, then the impact of a 10-
but almost $500 million in damage. year event is as large as that of a 100-
These statistics highlight the lives year event, and the annual avenge of
being saved by disaster risk manage- affected GDP is dominated by events Budapest
ment efforts but also the possibility that happen relatively frequently.
that the damage associated with Ifthe impact ofa 100-year event is
flooding will rise. much greater than that of a 10-year S Hee
This map depicts the impact of flood-fevent,tthennlessaf
This map ep astheimpacto fflod - a larger contribution to the annual
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even
as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP
age GDPs affected, with greater color seems small, less frequent and more Vai Veszprem Fejer
saturation indicating higher percent- intense events can still have large
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP impacts.
affected by floods with return periods
of 10 years (white) and 100 years The annual avenge population affect- Zaa
(black). The horizontal line across the ed by flooding in Hungary is about
bars also shows the annual average of 200,000 and the annual average somogy
GDP affected by floods. affected GDP about $2 billion. Within
th e variou s provinces, th e 10 - an d ROMA
When a flood has a 10-year return 100-year impacts do not differ much, Baranya
period, it means the probability of so relatively frequent floods have
occurrence of a flood of that magni- large impacts on these averages. CR0ATIA SERB
tude or greater is 10 percent per year.
A 100-year flood has a probability Affected GDP for Annual Average of Affected GDP
of occurrence of 1 percent per year. 10 and 100year return periods
One h[ock = 5%
This means that over a long period of 50
time, a flood of that magnitude will, 30 0 F 6 &
on average, occur once every 100 Annual averageA 10
years. It does not mean a 100-year itN iNs possibe f a
10-year 100-year
HWORLDBANKGROUP EL GROPE AND EENTRALA5A (ECA)
POLAND
H ungary's worst earthquake to happen at all over a long period
since 1900 took place in of time.
1911 in Kecskemet, causing CZECH REPUBLIC
10 fatalities. Others occurred in If the 10- and 100-year bars are
1599, 1763, 1783, and 1879, and, the same height, then the impact
most recently, in 2011. of a 10-year event is as large as
that of a 100-year event, and the
This map depicts the impact of annual average of affected GDP is I F AN
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, dominated by events that happen
represented as percentages of their relatively frequently. If the impact
annual avenage GDPs affected, with of a 100-year event is much greater
greater color saturation indicat- than that of a 10-year event, then
ing higher percentages. The bar less frequent events make largera
graphs represent GP affected by contributions to the annual aver- zabocs-szatmar-bereg
earthquakes with return periods age of affected GDP. Thus, even if
of 10 years (white) and 100 years a province's annual affected GP
(black). The horizontal line across seems small, less frequent and Gyor-rnowon-sopron .ca Bdpt
the bars also shows the annual more intense events can still have
average of GDP affected by earth- large impacts.
quakes. The annual average population
When an earthquake has a 10-year affected by earthquakes in HungaryYO7PI Foj
return period, it means the prob- is about 80,000 and the annual
ability of occurrence of an earth- average affected GP about $1
quake of that magnitude or greater billion. The annual averages of
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year fatalities and capital losses caused
earthquake has a probability of by earthquakes are about one and w aongrad
ccurrence of p ercent per year. about $200 million, respectively.
This mean s th at over a l oIng p erio d The fatalities and capital losses ROMA
of time, an earthquake of that mag- caused by more intense, less fre-
nitude will, on average, occur once quent events can be substantially
every 100 years. It does not mean Ilarge rtha n the an nu al averages. CROATI A S E RB A
a 100-year earthquake will occur For example, an earthquake with
exactly once every 100 years. In a . percent annual probability Af fectd greae () f rra f d
is 100percent0perayear.uAn100-year
fact, it is possible for an earthquake of occurrence (a 250-year return One block = 10%
of any return period to occur more period event) could cause about
than ne in the same year, or to $6 billion in capital loss (about S
appear in consecutive years, or not percent of GP). Ariua[ average 20
BOSNI AND NAZCSO A
10-year 100-year
HunaryWORLDBANKGROUP E|GDR ROPE AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
00
6 0he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
&6 T for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
o annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Komarom-esztergiom Komaram.
Fejer 4 oBekes 0 loss occurs in Budapest, which is not surprising, given the
economic importance of the province.
4, 0
EARTHQUAKE he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he ecedancepectily floods dieathe for
T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
45 350 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
40 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
300 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts
2 250 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
2080 -2 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Hun-
25 I 200 gary had experienced a 100-year return period flood event
150 2in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $9
15 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same
2015 100
2 10dtype of event would range from about $10 billion to about
50 $40 billion. If Hungary had experienced a 2 50-year earth-
2015 quake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been
10 50 10 50 100 250 about $50 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same
Return period (years) Return period (years) type of event would range from about $80 billion to about
10 10 2 1 o4 $300 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and
Probability (%) Probability (%) the increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, arid Pih. Hoyois, EMDAT: International Disaster Database (Universite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and I. Daniel[
and A. Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling,' final reportto GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP EI GROPE AND CENTRAL A5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
QRI5KPROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $120 billion*
Kazakhstan '.Pplto 77mlin
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
K azakhstan's population and industry and agriculture making a peril. In both relative and absolute
economy are exposed to earth- small contribution. Kazakhstan's per terms, the province at greatest risk
quakes and floods, with floods capita GDP was $6,770. of floods is Atyrauskaya, and the one
posing the greater risk. The model atgreatest risk of earthquakes is the
results for present-day risk presented This map displays GDP by province in Almaty City area.
in this risk profile are based on pop- Kazakhstan, with greater color satu-
ulation and gross domestic product ration indicating greater GDP within
(GDP) estimates for 2015. The esti- a provnce. The blue circles indicate -.idistanskaya
mated damage caused by historical the risk of experiencing floods and
events is inflated to 2015 dollars. the orange circles the risk of earth- Vt6darskaya
quakes in terms of normalized annual Kustanayska isal
Just over half of Kazakhstan's popula- average of affected GDP. The largest
tion lives in urban environments. The circles represent the greatest normal- a
country's GDP was approximately ized risk- The risk is estimated using
US$120 billion in 2015, with close flood and earthquake risk models. Aktyubinskaya Vostochn kazachstanskaya
to 70 percent derived from services,
most of the remainder generated bysat
greatest normalized risk for each
izedyrik.dThekiskaisestimatdsusin
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES 4K Jamylkaya A
Yujnokathtanskaya
- ~ M N OLI
Akty binskaya A Vostocn-0 hty a nrkay
EARTHQUAKE ARMENIA
ANNUALAVERAGEOF ANNUALAVERAGEOF AZERBAIJAN
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) j 15UR MENISTAN
fITAN CHINA
Atyrauskaya 11 Almaty City area 4
Kyzylordinskaya 5 Almatinskaya 3
Zapadrio-kazachstanskaya 3 Jambylslkaya 2 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) GDP (billions of$)
Jambyls[kaya 2 Yujno-kazachstanskaya 1
Yujno-kazachstanskaya 2 Vostochno-kazachstanskaya 1 10 There is a high correlation
Vostochno-kazachstanskaya 2 Mangistauskaya 0 5 (r=0.95) between the
Severo-kazachstanskaya I Pavlodarskaya 0 1 EARTHQUAKE , - population and GDP of a
Akmolinskaya I Kyzylordinskaya 0 1 E Q province.
Aktyubinskaya 1 Severo-kazachstanskaya 0
Kustanayskaya I Akmolinskaya 0 0 Negligible
Kaz khs anWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR [ROPE AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
he most deadly flood since more than once in the same year, or
Kazakhstan gained its inde- to appear in consecutive years, or not
pendence in 1991 occurred to happen at all over a long period of
in 2010. It caused over 40 fatalities time.
and close to $40 million in damage. RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The most damaging flood took place If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
in 2008, causing one death and over same height, then the impact of a 10-
$100 million in damage. A 1993 flood year event is as large as that of a 100-
caused approximately 10 fatalities year event, and the annual average of
and close to $60 million in damage. affected GDP is dominated by events
Flooding in 2011 caused only two that happen relatively frequently
fatalities and damage close to $70 If the impact of a 100-year event is
million. much greater than that of a 10-year
event, then less frequent events make
This map depicts the impact of flood- a larger contribution to the annual
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even
as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP
age GDPs affected, with greater color seems small, less frequent and more
saturation indicating higher percent- intense events can still have large Zapadno-kazachstanskaya
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP impacts.
affected by floods with return periods
of 10 years (white) and 100 years The annual avenge population affect-
(black). The horizontal line across the ed by flooding in Kazakhstan is about
bars also shows the annual average of 300,000 and the annual average
GDP affected by floods. affected GDP about $3 billion. For K sk
most provinces, the 10- and 100- Mangistauskayalabsky
When a flood has a 10-year return year impacts do not differ much, so
period, it means the probability of relatively frequent floods have large
occurrence of a flood of that magni- impacts on these avenges. For the SEA KYITI Z REPURLIC
tude or greater is 10 percent per year. few in which the 100-year impacts
A 100-year flood has a probability are much greater than the 10-year T ENISTAN
of occurrence of 1 percent per year. impacts, less frequent events make a NACIHISNN
Thsmen ta ve ln ero o iniian otrbtint teanulAffected GDP (%) for /Annual Average of Affected GOP(% INA
This means that over a long period ofPers
time, a flood of that magnitude will, averages of affected GD. One blck =
on average, occur once every 100
years. It does not mean a 100-year 05
flood will occur exactly once every I verLge
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a Annual
flood of any return period to occur
10-year 100-year
Ka z khs a nWORLDBANKGROUP EL GF R ROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
K azakhstan's worst earthquake year. or to appear in consecutive
since 1900 took place in 1911 years, or not to happen at all over
in Kemin, with a magnitude of long period of time.
7.7. The earthquake caused over 450
fatalities and more than $20 million Ifthe 10- and 100-year bars are the RUSSIAN FEDERATION
in damage. Other earthquakes oc- same height, then the impact of a 10-
curred in Aksu in 1716 and Alma-Ata year event is as large as that of a 100-
in 1889. More recently, in 2003, an year event, and the annual avenge of
earthquake caused three deaths and affected GDP is dominated by events
affected close to 40,000 people. that happen relatively frequently.
If the impact of a 100-year event is
This map depicts the impact of much greater than that of a 10-year
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, event, then less frequent events
represented as percentages of their make larger contributions to the
annual average GDPs affected, with annual average of affected GDP Thus,
greater color saturation indicating even if a provinces annual affected Ku A Paviodarskaya
higher percentages. The bar graphs GDP seems small, less frequent and
represent GDP affected by earth- more intense events can still have
quakes with return periods of 10 large impacts. Zapadnokazachstanskaya
years (white) and 100 years (black). - MCtGOLIA
The horizontal line across the bars The annual avenge pop Aktubinskaya a
also shows the annual average of affected by earthquakes in Ka-
GO afete b e rt qu ke.zakhstan is about 200,000 and the Atruky
GDP affected by earthquakes.affected GP about
When an earthquake has a 10-year $1 billion. The annual averages of Kyzy[ordinskaya
return period, it means the probabil- fatalities and capital losses caused Mangstauskaya
ity of occurrence of an earthquake of by earthquakes are about 500 and
that magnitude or greater is 10 per- about $400 million, respectively The CA Yujno-kazachstanskay A may City ara
cent per year. A 100-year earthquake fatalities and capital losses caused SEA U RREPUIBLI
has a probability of occurrence of by more intense, less frequent events
1 percent per year. This means that can be substantially larger than E N IS TA N
over a long period of time, an earth- the annual averages. For example, NACIHISTNN
quake of that magnitude will, onAffected GDP for A nnual Average of Affected G ( N
quake o that agnitue will,on an arthquke witha 0.4 ercent10 and 100-year return periodIs ______________
average, occur once every 100 years. annual probability of occurrence
It does not mean a 100-year earth- 250-year return period event) could [o 1
quake will occur exactly once every cause nearly 20,000 fatalities and 0 1 Imp
100 years. In fact, it is possible for $20 billion in capital loss (about 10
an earthquake of any return period percent of GOP). AnnOal
to yccur more thnan once i the same
10-year 100-year
Kaz khs anWORLDBANKGROUP EL|GFDRR "AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
Tahe rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
:5r elfor greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Kyzylordinskaya 0.4jno kazachstanskaya Karagandinskaya 0 ambylslkaya 30 loss occurs in the Almaty City area, which is not surprising,
given the economic importance of the province.
'ae
0'TO
EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE ROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
140 300 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts
2080 100 200 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
2080 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if
80
150 Kazakhstan had experienced a 100-year return period flood
60 event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti-
10 lomated $10 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from
40 r
the same type of event would range from about $60 billion
2015 20 5i 2015 to about $100 billion. If Kazakhstan had experienced a
..... . -- 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would
10 500 1 50 100 250 have been about $20 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from
turn perod (years) Return period (years) the same type of event.would range from about $100 billion
1 1 10 2 1 04- to $300 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and
P robabilIty (%) Probability (%) the increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universiti Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be; the National Geophysical
Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K; and J. Daniell and A. Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake
Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP G D R EUROPE AND CENTRAL AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
GQ U M RI5K PROF] LES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $6.3 billion*
Kosovo 0.oplaio-.9milin
K osovo's population and economy pecn)adgrulreee-
S E
are exposed to earthquakes and ating the remainder. Kosovo's
floods, with earthquakes posing per capita GDP was $3,410. AnnualAverage of Affected GDP
the greater risk of a high impact, lower
probability event. The model results for
present-day risk shown in this risk pro- province in Kosovo, with great- 1 EARTHQUAKE
file are based on population and gross er color saturation indicating
domestic product (GDP) estimates for greater GDP within a province.
The blue circles indicate the0Nelibe
2015. The estimated damage caused by 0 Netligib[e
historical events is inflated to 2015 US risk of experiencing floods
dollars. and the orange circles the risk
of earthquakes in terms of 4
Just over half of Kosovo's population normalized annual average of
lives in rural environments. The coun- affected GDP. The largest circl
try's GDP was approximately US$6.4 represent the greatest noral- Peja
billion in 2015, with most derived from ized risk- The risk is estimat
services and industry (together almost using flood and earthquake risk
models.
The table displays the proy-
TO AFETE POVNCSinces at greatest normalized G1
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES
risk for ea ch p era. I n both -
- relative and absolute terms,
the province at greatest risk of
FL EARTHQUAKE
Gui) ARTHUAKE floods is Mitrovica, and thepone
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) a g n o e,hu,
is Prizreni.
Mitrovica Prizreni 3 fR OF MACEDONIA
Gjilani 0 Gjakova 2 LBA
Prishtin6 Gjilani 1
Prizreni Peja 1 SubnatiheaKObounaries(on thensoso
Peja 0 Ferizaji 1
Gjakova 0 PrishtinL 1 map represent p[anning areas for the There s a high correlation
Ferizapr c Mitrovia 0 purposes of this analysis. A o 95) between he
Sm a ppu aio a dGDP of a
prvic province
Kosov WORLDBANKGROUP EUGFDRR "AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
Affected GDP (%) for
N o reliable reports are available that happen relatively frequently. 10 and 100-year return periods
on flood damage for Kosovo. Ifthe impact of a 100-year event is One block = 1%
The country was, however, much greater than that of a 10-year 10
affected by floods in 2010 and 2014. event, then less frequent events make
a larger contribution to the annual Annual average 2
This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP S E RBIA 10-year 100-year
as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and miore
age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large
saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. Annual Average of Affected GOP
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP
affected by floods with return periods The annual average population
of 10 years (white) and 100 years affected by flooding in Kosovo is
(black). The horizontal line across the about 10,000 and the annual average o a 9
bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $50 million. For
GDP affected by floods. most provinces, the 10- and 100-
year impacts do not differ much, so
When a flood has a 10-year return relatively frequent floods have large
period, it means the probability of impacts on these averages.
occurrence of a flood of that magni- Peja Prlshtlne
tude or greater is 10 percent per yea r.
A 100-year flood has a probability Pr,kne
of occurrence of 1 percent per year.
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will, At
on average, occur once every 100 a vjilani
years. It does not mean a 100-year
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a FenzaJI
flood of any return period to occur
more than once in the same year, or Prizreni
to appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period of MACOA
time. LB A
If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
same height, then the impact of a 10-
year event is as large as that of a 100- Subnational boundaries on the Kosovo
year event, and the annual average of map represent ' planning areas" for the
affected GDP is dominated by events purposes of this analysis.
KosvoWORLDBANKGROUP EL GFR ROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
K osovo's worst earthquake to happen at all over a long period And 10e r
since 1900 took place in of time. On 10
1911. Its epicenter was in *80
Ochrida, now FYR of Macedonia. If the 10- and 100-year bars are 40
The same region was also hit by an the same height, then the impact AnLia[ average 20
earthquake in 1896. of a 10-year event is as large as
that of a 100-year event, and the ;t E SRBI A 1-er10ya
This map depicts the impact of annual average of affected GDP is
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, dominated by events that happen
represented as percentages of their relatively frequently If the impact
annual average GDPs affected, with of a 100-year event is much greater Annual Average of Affected GOP (%)
greater color saturation indicat- than that of a 10-year event, then
ing higher percentages. The bar less frequent events make larger
graphs represent GDP affected by contributions to the annual average
earthquakes with return periods of affected GDI. Thus, even if a mitrovica
of 10 years (white) and 100 years province's annual affected GDP
(black). The horizontal line across seems small, less frequent and
the bars also shows the annual more intense events can still have
average of GDP affected by earth- large impacts.
quakes.
The annual average population af- J
When an earthquake has a 10-year fected by earthquakes in Kosovo is
return period, it means the prob- about 30,000 and the annual aver-
ability of occurrence of an earth- age affected GDP about $90 million.
quake of that magnitude or greater The annual averages of fatalities
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year and capital losses caused by earth-
earthquake has a probability of quakes,are about two and about
occurrence of 1 percent per year. $10 million, respectively. The fatal-
This means that over a long period ities and capital losses caused by
of time, an earthquake of that mag- more intense, less frequent events
nitude will, on average, occur once can he substantially larger than
every 100 years. It does not mean the annual averages. For example,
a 100-year earthquake will occur an earthquake with a 0.4 percent
exactly once every 100 years. In annual probability of occurrence L A
fact, it is possible for an earthquake (a 25S-year return period event)
of any return period to occur more could cause nearly $400 million in
than once in the same year, or to capital loss (6 percent of GUD').
theatoaborclre sam hehht theothoimac
appear in consecutive years, or not o
map represent op[ar0ning areas for the
purposes ofnthis analysis
KosovoWORLDBANKGROUP E|GDR ROPE" AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
lhe rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
0 ' for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
Ferzji o,6 -akova 2 Feriza j 6aova 0 an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
loss occurs in Prizreni, which is not surprising, given the
economic importance of the province.
--- --------- ~~~~~~----------------- --------------------------------- ---- - -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
' EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 280' EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
A" ITaffected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
08 1'6 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
07 14time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
1GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts
r0 A
the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
2080 0. 0and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if
04 200Kosovo had experienced a 100-year return period flood
S event in 2015, the affectedQGDP would havebeen an esti-
03
d, x mated $200 million. In 2080,Jhowever, the affected GDP
2015 2015
fromhe me type of evet would range from about $300
0.1 2millon t about $700 million. If Kosovo had experienced a
attar earthquke event in 2015, the affected GsP would
have been about $3 billion. In 2 d080, the affected GDP from
Retun pthe same type of event would range from about $6 billion to
10 2 10. 2O about $15 billion, due to population growth, urbanization,
and the increerin exposed assets.
mated $200 milhon-- ----In 2Q80 howeve the. - afce
All historical data on earthquakes are fromJ. Daniel[ and A.Schaefer, "Eastern Eurcpe and Centl Asia Regio atuak Risk,Assessent Curitry and Province Profiling,"fria[ reportto2 GFeFaR, 2014 Dam ae estiatesfor allhis-
torical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP G D R EUROPE AND CENTRAL AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
RIKPROF]LES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $5.5 billion*
Kyrgyz Repubili e Pplain .7mllo*-
T he Kyrgyz Republic's pop- ture contributing 20 percent. The estimated using flood and earthquake
ulation and economy are Kyrgyz Republics per capita GDP was risk models.
exposed to earthquakes and $970.
floods, with earthquakes posing the The table displays the provinces at
greater risk of a high impact, lower This map displays GDP by province greatest normalized risk for each Annual Average of Affected GOP
probability event. The model results in the Kyrgyz Republic, with greater peril. In relative terms, as shown in 5
for present-day risk shown in this color saturation indicating greater the table, the province at greatest
risk profile are based on population GDP within a province. The blue cir- risk of floods is Talas, and the one at EARTHQUAKE
and gross domestic product (GDP) ces indicate the risk of experiencing greatest risk of earthquakes is Osh.
estimates for 2015. The estimated floods and the orange circles the risk In absolute terms, the province at AZAKHSTAN 0 Neg[igible
damage caused by historical events is of earthquakes in terms of normal- greatest risk of both floods and earth-
inflated to 2015 US dollars. ized annual average of affected GDP. quakes is Chuy
The largest circles represent the
Over 60 percent of the Kyrgyz greatest normalized risk. The risk is
Republic's population lives in rural
environments. The country's GDP
was approximately UmS$5.5 billion in
2015, with nearly 50 percent de rived
from services, most of the remainder
generated by industuy and agricul-
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES
FLOODEARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OFCHINA
AFFECTED GDP ( ) AFFECTED GDP (4
Talas tablh 5 the provinces at
Naryn 3 Chuiy 4
Osh 2 Ysyk-kol 4
nlal-abad is4
Chiiy a Batken 3(r=0.95) between the
peril In relativ tem3asoni
risknoffloodsispopulation and GP ofnd t
rekats risk ofaa-a 2 provin
Ink-o ab olt termss th provinceea
Kyr yz epu licWORLDBANKGROUP EL GFD RPE" AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
heyrgyz Relic hasO ex-DR
T he Kyrgyz Republic has ex- If the 10- and 100-year bars are the avenage affected GDP about $70 Affected GOP (%) for
perienced some floods since same height, then the impact ofa 10- million. For most provinces, the 10- 10 and 100-year return periods
gaining its independence in year event is as large as that of a 100- and 100-year impacts do not differ One black = 2% 20
1991. Floods in 1998 and 2005 each year event, and the annual average of much, so relatively frequent floods
caused over $3 million in damage. affected GDP is dominated by events have large impacts on these avenges. 10
More recently, in 2012, flooding in that happen relatively frequently For the few in which the 100-year Annua[ average41
Osh, Batken and jalalbad affected If the impact of a 100-year event is impacts are greater than the 10-year
about 11,000 people. much greater than that of a 10-year impacts, less frequent events make a 1O-year 100-year
event, then less frequent events make significant contribution to the annual
This map depicts the impact of flood- a larger contribution to the annual avenge of affected GDP.
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even Annual Average of Affected GOP (%)
as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP
age GDPs affected, with greater color
saturation indicating higher percent- intense events can still have large
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP impacts. 0 V 6 9
affected by floods with return periods
of 10 years (white) and 100 years The annual avenge population affect-
(black). The horizontal line across the ed by flooding in the Kyrgyz Repub-
bars also shows the annual average of lic is about 80,000 and the annual
GDaP aff cted by flGoo ds.isdominate
When a flood has a 10-year return
period, it means the probability ofo
occurrence of a flood of that magni-a
tud e o r gre ater is 10 p erc ent per year Ysyk-ko[
A 100-year flood has a probability/ ';>
of occurrence ofi1 percent per year 1
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will,
on average, occur once every 100 GP
years. It does not mean a 100-year
flood will occur exactly once everyR
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
flood of any return period to occur
more than once in the same year, or
to appaear in consccutive ye ars, ogr notth
to happen at all over a long period of
Ac G (f
K R u iWORLDBANKGROUP E RO AND EENTRAL A5A ECA)
T hyrgyz Reblicc worstR RISK RFIE
T he Kyrgyz Republic's worst If the 10- and 100-year bars are the $200 million. The annual avenages of Affected GOP (%) for
earthquake since 1900 oc- same height, then the impact of a 10- fatalities and capital losses caused 10 and 100-year return periods
curred in 1911 in Pamir, caus- year event is as large as that ofa 100- by earthquakes are about 200 and One b[ock - 10% 100
ing over 90 fatalities. Earthquakes year event, and the annual avenge of about $100 million, respectively. The
in 1992 caused over 50 fatalities affected GDP is dominated by events fatalities and capital losses caused s0
and close to $300 million in damage. that happen relatively frequently. by more intense, less frequent events Annua average
More recently, in 2008, an earthquake If the impact of a 100-year event is can be substantially larger than the
killed over 70 people. much greater than that of a 10-year annual averages. For example, an In-vear 10jea
event, then less frequent events make earthquake with a 0.4 percent annual
This map depicts the impact of larger contributions to the annual av- probability of occurrence (a 250-year
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a return period event) could cause Annual Average of Affected GOP (%)
represented as percentages of their province's annual affected GDP seems nearly 8,000 fatalities and $4 billion
annual average GDPs affected, with
annua avene GDs affcted,with sm all, les s fr equ ent and more inten se in capital loss (about 60 percent of ____________
greater color saturation indicating events can still have large impacts. GDP).
higher percentages. The bar graphs KAZAKHSTAN
represent GDP affected by earth- The annual avenge population
quakes with return periods of 10 affected by earthquakes in the Kyrgyz
years (white) and 100 years (black). Republic is about 200,000 and the
The horizontal line across the bars annual average affected GDP about
also shows the annual average of GDP
affected by earthquakes.
When an earthquake has a 10-year
return period, it means the probabil-
ity of occurrence of an earthquake
of that magnitudre or greater is 10
percent per yeari A 100-year earth-
quake has a probability of ccu rren ce
of 1 percent per year. This means
that over a long period of time, an
earthquake of that magnitude will, on
avege, occur once every 100 years., ia
It does not mean a 100-year earth-
quake will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible forc
an earthquake of any return perioda
to cccur more thsan once ing the same
year, oar to appear in cons cutive
years, or not to happen at all over a
long period of time.
Kyr yz epu licWORLDBANKGROUP E|GFDRR NM5ENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
atken ) bad t-6a an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
loss occurs in Chuy, which is not surprising, given the eco-
nomic importance of the province.
EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EARTHQUNCE he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
E D affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
8a7 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different.
time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
0 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depts
6 the range of affected GDP based on a selection orlate
and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. Forempfe, if the
4 Kyrgyz Republic had experienced a r return period
3030 flood event in 2015, affected GDP wuld have been an
estimated $400 miIlipn. n 2080, owever, the pffected GDP
2 20 from the sarnetpe of eventwould range fron about $4
2015 1 10 2011 billion to abou $7 billion. If the Kyrgyz Republic had expe-
rienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected
10 s0 100 250 10 so 100 250 GD0P wopd have been an estimated $4 billion. In 2080, the
Return period (years) Return ped (years) affected GDP from the same type of event would range from
A0 2 / ... .. . . 4 about $20 billion to about $60 billion, due to population
10 2 1
Probability (%) Poaitygrowth, urbanization, and the increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakeSare on D Guha-Sapir, R. Blow ard iW , M-D tintr isaster Datab ase (Universit Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be; the National Geophysical
Data Center/World Data Servic(NGH/WDS), gificant Earthuake Database (inal n eophy i t NOAA), do 10 7289/V5TD9V7K ad I Daniell and A Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake
Risk Assessment Country and Province,Profaling," lia report to >FQRR, 2014 Damage estimats for all historical eventS have been infated to 2015 l,I$
WORLDBANKGROUP EI GROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
QRI5KPROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $28.2 billion* L3
L atvia's population and economy and agriculture making a small
are exposed to earthquakes and contribution. Latvia's per capita
floods, with floods posing the GDP was $22,000.
greater risk The model results for pres- SALTIC SEA ESTONIA
ent-day risk shown in this risk profile This map displays GDP by
are based on population and gross province in Latvia, with greater
domestic product (GDP) estimates for color saturation indicating
2015. The estimated damage caused by greater GDP within a province. aEiESA
historical events is inflated to 2015 US T b c e ae
dollars. risk of experiencing floods
and the orange circles the risk ATk5e I
Close to 70 percent of Latvia's pop- of earthquakes in terms of 0
ulation lives in urban environments. normalized annual average of
The country's GDP was approximately affected GDP. The largest circles R
US$28.2 billion in 2015, with nearly 70 represent the greatest normal-
percent derived from services, most of ized risk The risk is estimated igas Madonas
the remainder generated by industry using flood and earthquake risk
models.
GDPlu was $22000
Dobetes A7rul,Lda
The table displays the prov- Rezekne5
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES inces at greatest normalized
risk for each peril. In relative
terms, as shown in the table,
U) EARTHQUAKE the province at greatest risk of
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF floods is jekabpils, and the one
AFFECTED GDP () AFFECTED GDP () at greatest risk of earthquakes L I T H U AN 1A
Sis Ogres. In absolute terms, it
Kuldigas Limbazu 0 is Rigas. L
Ogres 3 Rezeknes 0 Annual Average of Affected GDP (GOP (billions of
Preilu 3 Saldus 0
Rigas 3 Talsu 0 rs There is a high correlation
Aizkraukles 2 Madonas 0 (r=O.95) between the
auvas 2 EAirs 1 R UEARTHQUAKE population and GDP ofa
eagkabs 2 BalOrs province.
Valkas I Kuldigas 0
Valmieras 1 Aluksnes 0 0 Negligible
Lat iaWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR ROPE AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
his map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make
flooding on provinces' GDPs, a larger contribution to the annual
represented as percentages of average of affected GDP. Thus, even
their annual average GDPs affect- if a province's annual affected GDP
ed, with greater color saturation seems small, less frequent and more
indicating higher percentages. The intense events can still have large
bar graphs represent GDP affected impacts.
by floods with return periods of 10
years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population ESTONIA
The horizontal line across the bars affected by flooding in Latvia is about
also shows the annual average of GDP 30,000 and the annual average affect-
affected by floods. ed GDP about $600 million. Within
the various provinces, the 10- and VlirsR US S 1A N
When a flood has a 10-year return 100-year impacts do not differ much,
period, it means the probability of so relatively frequent floods have
occurrence of a flood of that magni- large impacts on these averages.
tude or greater is 10 percent per year.
A 100-year flood has a probability
of occurrence of 1 percent per year. Lff 'I) B
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will, Madna
on average, occur once every 100
years. It does not mean a 100-year
flood will occur exactly once every a Dau
LiepjasDobl,esAlzrauiesLudzas
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
flood of any return period to occur
more than once in the same year, or
to appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period of
time.Dagvps
Ifa larger-contributionrtoatheaannual
Affected GOP for Annual Average of Affected GDPPT%)
same height, then the impact of a 10- 10 and 100-year return periods
ye ar event is as large as that ofa 100- Ont block [a sl ha LAR S
year event, and the annual average ofp
affected GDP is dominated by events a d o L
that happen relatively frequenty.
If the impact ofa 100-year event is
much greater than that of a 10-year
10-year 100-year
LatViaWORLDBANKGROUP EL GFRROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
T he worst earthquake to If the 10- and 100-year bars are
affect Latvia since 1900 oc- the same height, then the impact
curred in 1908. Other major of a 10-year event is as large as
events have occurred in 1616 and that of a 100-year event, and the
1821. annual average of affected GDP is
dominated by events that happen
This map depicts the impact of relatively frequently. If the impact
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, of a 100-year event is much greater
represented as percentages of their than that ofa 10-year event, then BALTIC SEA
annual average GDPs affected, with less frequent events make larger
greater color saturation indicat- contributions to the annual aver-
ing higher percentages. The bar age of affected GDP. Thus, even if
graphs represent GDP affected by a province's annual affected GDP Nb FEEERAT N
earthquakes with return periods seems small, less frequent and Valks
of 10 years (white) and 100 years more intense events can still have
(black). The horizontal line across large impacts. VWntskilesTake
the bars also shows the annual VentpiA
average of GDP affected by earth- The annual average population Cesu Golbenes
quakes. affected by earthquakes in Latvia is Rigas BalvU
about 100 and the annual aver-age -Ri._ 2__
When an earthquake has a 10-yearTurn
Whenan artquae hs a10-ear GOP about $2 million. The annual ',Kuldigas j m K3 Ors -- aoa
return period, it means the prob- avrae o flsd ias
ability of occurrence of an earth-
quake of that magnitude or greater less than one and about $500,000, Jelgavas les
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year respectively. The fatalities and epajas Rezeknes'
e arthq uake ha s a probabil ity o f I
eac rquae ha a probaltryeaof capital losses caused by more 7 lekabpils\ Prei lu
occurrenceintense, less frequent events can
This means that over a long period be substantially larger than the
of time, an earthquake of that mag- annual averages. For example an Kras[avas
nitude will, on average, occur once earthquake with a OA percent Daugavpits
every 100 years. It does not mean annual probability ofoccurrence L_1HUANIA
a 100-year earthquake will occur (a 250-year return period event)
exactly once every 100 years. In could cause nearly $20 million in
fact, it is possible for an earthquake capital loss (ess than 1 percent of GDP not affected for 10 and Annual Average of Affected GOP LA S
of any return period to occur more GDP). 100-year return periods
than once in the same year, or to AnnLal average = 0
appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period
of time.
LatiaWORLDBANKGROUP E|GDR RO" AN CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE ( EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
0
he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potent i
T for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Madonas 20,000 Vamieras 30,000 Kuldigas 0 Saldus 0
loss occurs in Rigas.
,§~EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 YJ'EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
.1 affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
12 0.35 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
030 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
00 30
208025 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
2080 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Lat-
2015
i EARTHQUAKtype of eean e woldranebr abolycut $5 isllio to about
6$ ili I avia had experienced a 250-yearreunpiofld ehqaen
0XCEn 1 in 20 15 , the affected G P would have been a butaed $
50 20 4illion. In 2080 e, th e affected G dP from the same ypeo
8 ;2 0.25type rnof eteud rDanged o au $5elion o abouat
0 05$ il.I avia had experienced a 250-year earthquake lod een
0 ~ ..0.**15ev in 2 0151 , th e affected G DP would h ave been a butiatd $70
1 0 100 2500 million. In 2080, oe, the affected GDP from the sameeo
tn pend (years) event would range from about $100 million to about $300
10 2 1 0.4 million, due to population growth, urbanization, and the
Probabi lity(% Probability (%) - increase in exposed assets.
Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP GR EROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
QRI5KPROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $43.0 billion*
Lithuamia o
Lithuania's population and econ- and agriculture making a small
omy are exposed to earthquakes contribution. Lithuania's per
and floods, with floods posing capita GDP was $15,100.
the greater risk. The model results for L A7,VIA
present-day risk shown in this risk pro- This map displays GDP by prov-
file are based on population and gross ince in Lithuania, with greater Teau o
domestic product (GDP) estimates for color saturation indicating Siauli 'Panevezia
2015. The estimated damage caused by greater GDP within a province.
historical events is inflated to 2015 US The blue circles indicate the risk
dollars. of experiencing floods and the Kalpedes
orange circles the risk of earth-
Close to 70 percent of Lithuania's quakes in terms of normalized
population lives in urban environments. annual average of affected GDR
The country's GDP was approximately The largest circles represent the Ta rages
US$43.0 billion in 2015, with nearly 70 greatest normalized risk. The
percent derived from services, most of risk is estimated using flood and
the remainder generated by industry, earthquake risk models. auno
The table displays the provinces
at greatest normalized risk for RUSS AN FEDERATION ilnia
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES each peril. In relative terms, as
shown in the table, the prov-
ince at greatest risk of floods is
EARTHQUAKE Alythaus, and the one at greatest
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF risk of earthquakes is Siauliu. In
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) absolute terms, the province at
greatest risk of floods is Vilniaus,
Parevezio KlSipedos 0 and the one at greatest risk of
Kauno 2 Telsiu 0 earthquakes is Siauliu. Annual Average of Affected GOP (%) BELARUS
Vilniaus 2 Panevezio 0 5
Taurages 2 Marijampoles 0 5ODP (billions of$
Marijampoles 2 Utenos 0 There is a high correlation
Klaipedos I Kauno 0 POLAvD 1 ATQAE(r=O.95) between the
Utenos Taurages 0 EARTHQUAKE
Siaulio Alytaus 0 population and GDP of a
Teliu ViAniaus 0 0 Negligible province.
Telsiui u VilniaUS 0
Lith aniaWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR ROPE AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
F looding in 2010 caused four much greater than that of a 10-year LATVIA
fatalities in Lithuania. event, then less frequent events make
a larger contribution to the annual
This map depicts the impact average of affected GDP. Thus, even
of flooding on provinces' GDPs, repre- if a province's annual affected GDP
sented as percentages of their annual seems small, less frequent and more
average GDPs affected, with greater intense events can still have large
color saturation indicating higher impacts.
percentages. The bar graphs repre-
sent GDP affected by floods with re- The annual average population
turn periods of 10 years (white) and affected by flooding in Lithuania is
100 years (black). The horizontal line about 60,000 and the annual average Te Siaul i
across the bars also shows the annual affected GDP about $800 million. For
average of GDP affected by floods. most provinces, in which the impacts _
from 10- and 100-year floods do not Klaipedos
When a flood has a 10-year return differ much, relatively frequent floods
period, it means the probability of have large impacts on these averages.
occurrence of a flood of that magni- For the few in which the 100-year teno
tude or greater is 10 percent per year. impacts are much greater than the
A 100-year flood has a probability 10-year impacts, less frequent events Taurage
of occurrence of 1 percent per year. make a significant contribution to the
This means that over a long period of annual average of affected GDKa
time, a flood of that magnitude will,
on average, occur once every 100
years. It does not mean a 100-year v
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a nius
flood of any return period to occur
more than once in the same year, or
to appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period of
time.
Aftected GDP ()for
If the 10- and 100-year bars are the and 100-year return periods
same height, then the impact of a 10- One block = 2% 20
year event is as large as that of a 100-
year event, and the annual average of 10 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
affected GDP is dominated by events P 0 LAN D Annual average -L
that happen relatively frequently.
If the impact of a 100-year event is 10-year 100-year o 1 s C &
70ya 0-ea 6 :
Lith aniaWORLDBANKGROUP EL GF RROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
Lihua ia h RS[ PRO
T he worst earthquake to affect If the 10- and 100-year bars are the LATVIA
Lithuania since 1900 oc- same height, then the impact of
curred in 1908 near the Be- 10-year event is as large as that of a
larus border. A more recent, widely 100-year event, and the annual av-
felt earthquake occurred in 1988; erage of affected GDP is dominated
damage was minimal, however. by events that happen relatively fre-
quently. If the impact of a 100-year
This map depicts the impact of event is much greater than that of
earthquakes on provinces'GDPs, a 10-year event, then less frequent
represented as percentages of their events make larger contributions to
annual average GDPs affected, with the annual average of affected GDP.
greater color saturation indicating Thus, even if a province's annual TelsiuSauli Pan io
higher percentages. The bar graphs affected GDP seems small, less fre-
represent GDP affected by earth- quent and more intense events can
quakes with return periods of 10 still have large impacts. KLaipedos
years (white) and 100 years (black).
The horizontal line across the bars The annual average population af-
also shows the annual average of fected by earthquakes in Lithuania
GDP affected by earthquakes. is about 100 and the annual average Taues
affected GDP about $2 million. The K
When an earthquake has a 10-year annual averages of fatalities and
return period, it means the prob- capital losses caused by earth- Kauno
ability of occurrence of an earth- quakes are less than one and about
quake of that magnitude or greater $500,000, respectively. The fatal-
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year ities and capital losses caused by RUSS AN FEDERATION J VilniaUS
earthquake has a probability of more intense, less frequent events Marijampoles VIFiu
occurrence of t percent per year. can he substantiall larger than
This means that over a long period the annual averages. For example,
of time, an earthquake of that mag- an earthquake with a 0.4 percent
nitude will, on average, occur once annual probability of occurrence (a
every 100 years. It does not mean 250-year return period event) could
a 100-year earthquake will occur cause about $20 million in capital Alvtaus
exactly once every 100 years. In loss (less than 1 percent of GDP).
fact, it is possible for an earthquake BELARUS
of any return period to occur more
than once in the same year, or to
GDP (%) not affected for 10 and Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
appear in consecutive years, or not
i-U LALi-10O-year return periods
to happen at all over a long period Annual average = 0
of time.
Lit ua iaWORLDBANKGROUP EL|GFDRR "AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE 7 EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
7
6 he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
0o1S T for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
Utenos 8,000 Tj u 40,000 T s 0an earthquake risk model. The province with the potential
for greatest capital loss is Siauliu.
. . ......-----0
EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
1 affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
12 0.18 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
0.16 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
10 0.14 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts
2080 8 0.12 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Lith-
6 u0.10 ania had experienced a 100-year return period flood event
0.08 in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $4
2015 2080
4 0.06 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same
.0 type of event would range fmm about $7 billion to about
0.02 2015 $10 billion. If Lithuania had experienced a 250-year earth-
I I I _____ 2015quake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been
10 50 100 250 10 50 100 250 about $60 million. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same
Return period (years) Return period (years) type of event would range from about $100 million to about
10 2 1 0.4 10 2 1 074 $200 million, due to population growth, urbanization, and
Probability (%) Probability (%) the increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and 1. Daniell and A. Schae-
fer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP G D R ELUROPE AND CENTRAL AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
GQ U M RI5K PROF] LES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $10.5 billion*
IVacedonia, FYR os- -
T he population and economy of of the remainder generated by B U LG A I A
the former Yugoslav Republic of industry and agriculture making
Macedonia are exposed to earth- a smaller contribution. FYR of
quakes and floods, with floods posing Macedonis per capita GDP was
the greater risk. The model results for $5,040.
present-day risk shown in this risk pro-
file are based on population and gross
domestic product (GDP) estimates for ince in the FYR Macedonia, wit Pti 0, DnlA%I'
2015. The estimated damage caused by greater color saturation indicating
historical events is inflated to 2015 US greater GDP within a province.
dolr.The blue circles indicate the risk Seti Nmikosn
dollars.
of experiencing floods and the
About 60 percent of FYR Macedonia's orange circles the risk of earth-
population lives in urban environments. quakes in terms of normalized
The country's GDP was approximately annual average of affected GDP. BrRd
US$10.5 billion in 2015, with over 60 The largest circles represent the
percent derived from services, most greatest normalized risk The risk
is estimated using flood and earth- Dbrr, Neon
________________________ quake risk models.
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES The table displays the provinces at
greatest normalized risk for each Dernir4
N I'peril. In relative terms, as shownriGeqij
EARTHQUAKE in the table, the province at great
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF est risk of floods is Skopje, and the
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) one at greatest risk ofearthquakes GREECE
is Ohrid. In absolute terms, the
Skopje Ohrid 6 province atgreatest risk of both
Veles Struga 5
Valandovo Debar 4 floods and earthquakes is Skopje. Annua Average of Affected GOP
Stip Resen 3
Negotino 2 Skopje 2 GDP (billions of 10
Brod 2 Berovo 2 There is a high correlation 5 F
Kavadarci 2 Delcevo 2 b EARTHQUAKE
Gevgelija Strumica 2population and DP of a
Bitola 1 Gostivar 2 province.
Debar o Virica 2 e0 Negligible
M ace onia FYRWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR ROPE" ANE ENTRAL A51A(ECA)
he most devastating flood in fthe 10- and 100-year bars are the
the former Yugoslav Republic same height, then the impact of a 10-
of Macedonia since it gained year event is as large as that ofa 100-
its independence in 1991 occurred in year event, and the annual average of SE
1995 and caused nearly $400 million affected GDP is dominated by events
in damage. More recently, flooding in that happen relatively frequently. BULGARIA
2004 affected over 100,000 people If the impact ofa 100-year event is
and caused almost $5 million in much greater than that of a 10-year
damage. event, then less frequent events make Kriva Palanka
a larger contribution to the annual Kumanovo/V
This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP Thus, even
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a provinces annual affected GDP
as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more retiDl
age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have Large
saturation indicating higher percent- impacts.
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP
affected by floods with return periods The annual average population affect
of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in FYR Macedonia is
Gostivar S
(black). The horizontal line across the about 70,000 and the annual averae
bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $500 million. For
GDP affected by floods. most provinces,the 10-and 100-
year impacts do not differ much, so
When a flood has a 10-year return relatively frequent floods have large Debar
period, it means the probability of impact on te ans.oh
occurrence of a flood of that magni- fhe
tude or greater is 10 percent per year. are much greater than the 10-year Prilep a r a
A 100-year flood has a probability
A 10-ea foo ha aprbailty impacts, less frequent events make a Demtir Hisar
of occurrence of 1 percent per year. b h a Ora id
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will, e
on average, occur once every 100 -
years. It does not mean a 100-year
Affected GDP (%) for
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
O ne block = 5% 40
flood of any return period to occur
more than once in the same year, or
to appear in consecutive years, or not Annual Average of Affected GOP (%) 20
to happen at all over a long period of Anniua[ average
time.I T ~ T
IftQ 0-an10-year 100-year
M aced nia,FY RWORLDBANKGROUP EL GF R ROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
T he former Yugoslav Republic appear in consecutive years, or not
of Macedonia's worst earth- to happen at aD over a long period
quake since 1900 happened of time.
in 1963 in Skopje, with a magnitude S A
of 6. It caused over 1,000 fatalities
and close to $8 billion in damage, same height, then the Impactof a
and Skopje was almost completely 10-year event is as large as that oh
destroyed. A 1931 earthquake, also
in Skopje, killed over 150 people.
events that happen relatively fre- Kj,,nv
This map depicts the impact of quently. If the impact of a 100-year
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, event is much greater than that of
represented as percentages of their a 10-year event, then less frequent
annual average GDPs affected, with events make larger contributions to
greater color saturation indicating the annual average of affected GDP.
higher percentages. The bar graphs Thus, even if a province's annual
represent GDP affected by earth- affected GDP seems small, lessfre-
quakes with return periods of 10 quent and more intense events can A
years (white) and 100 years (black). still have large impacts.
The horizontal line across the bars
also shows the annual average of
GDP ffeced b earhquaes.affected by earthquakes in FYR of
GDP affected by earthquakes.
Macedonia is about 40,000 and the
When an earthquake has a 10-year annual average affected GDP about
return period, it means the prob- $200 million. The annual averag-
ability of occurrence of an earth- es of fatalities and capital losses
quake of that magnitude or greater caused by earthquakes are about
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year 10 and about $100 million, respec- 2
erthquake has a probability of
eartqaehsapoaiiyo tively The fatalities and capital
occurrence of t percent per year. losses caused by more intense, less
This means that over a long period frequent events can be substantially
of time, an earthquake of that mag- larger than the annual averages.
nitude will, on average, occur once For example, an earthquake with
every 100 years. It does not mean a 0.4 percent annual probability
a 100-year earthquake will occur of occurrence (a 250-year return
exactly once every 100 years. In period event) could cause about 400
fact, it is possible for an earthquake fatalities and $2 billion in capital Average of Affected GDP (%)
of any return period to occur more loss (about 20 percent of GDP). Annua[
than once in the soame year, or to
If t 10 10-year 100-year
M a ed ni , YRWORLDBANKGROUP GFDRRP" AN CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MllLiNS ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
. oT for greatest annualfaverage capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potentia for greatest capital
Gostivar 2 truga 5 loss occurs in Skopje, which is not surprising, given the
economic importance of the province.
EARTHQUAKE he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
14 >45 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
12 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts
the range of affected GDP based on a selection of clmt
2080 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if FYR
8 25 of Macedonia had experienced a 100-year return period
Co 20 flood event in 2015, the eced GDP would have been an
6 0 2
estimated $2 billin. , however, the affected GDP
4 t from the same type of event would range from about $7
d w0
2015 2 2015 billion totaot$11 billion. If FY of Macedonia had expe-
T rienced at250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected
0250 10 GDP would have been about $3 billion. In 2080, however,
urn peod (years) the affected GDP from the same type of event would range
.. .from about $20 billion to about $40 billion, due to popu-
0. laton growth, urbanization, and the increase in exposed
Pro babi lity( )ases
1 7 assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. HoyDis, EN-DAT International Disaster Database (Universite CatholiqUe de Louvain, Brussels, Belgiurn), www.emdat.be, and J. Daniell and ASchae-
fer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk AsSessment Country and Province Priling," fial report to IFDRR, 2014 Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP EI GROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
Moldova '.Pplto 36mlin
oldova's population and econ- remainder Moldovas per capita GDP UKRAINE Annual Average of Affected GDP
omy are exposed to earth- was $1,760.
quakes and floods, with floods
posing the greater risk. The model This map displays GDP by province in Edinet EARTHQUAKE
results for present-day risk shown in Moldova, with greater color satura-
this risk profile are based on population ton indicating greater GDP within
and gross domestic product (GDP) esti- a province. The blue circles indicate
mates for 2015. The estimated damage the risk of experiencing floods and
caused by historical events is inflated to the orange circles the risk of earth-
2015 US dollars. quakes in terms ofnornalized annual a G
average of affected GDP. The largest
Just over half of Moldova's popula- circles represent the greatest normal-
tion lives in rural environments. The ized risk. The risk is estimated using
country's GDP was approximately D ' 6
counry'sGDPwas pprximaelyflood and earthquake risk models.
US$6.3 billion in 2015, with over 60
percent derived from services, and with The table displays the provinces at
remainder.eMoldovahsgperarapitaion
industry and agriculture generating the greatest normalized risk for each per- tur0 between-he
il. In relative terms, as shown in the (r=pu[btwend CDPhe
table, the province at greatest risk tphinri
a~~~~f province Thrbueciclsnndcet.
of floods is Dubasari, and the one at
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES greatest risk of earthquakes is Cahul.
In absolute terms, the province atnuh
greatest risk of floods and earth- rsmdl
AEARTHQUAKE quakes is Chisinau.
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF
AFFECTED GDP () AFFECTED GDP(%
Dubhasari 3 Cahuil 2Ggjzi
Soroca i Sagauzia 1oo
Edinet th Lappisna 1
Tighina 2 Ungheni 1
Balti 2 Chisinau 0 BLACK SEA
Chisiflau 2 Ba[ti 0 W)
Orheh 2 Tighina 0
Cahuf f Dubasari 0
UngheIn a Orhei 0
Lapusna 0 Soroca 0
M o d v WORLDBANKGROUP | D REAND EENTRALA51A(ECA)
T he worst flood in Moldova on average, occur once every 100
since the country gained its in- years. It does not mean a 100-year ad GOP (%) for
dependence in 1991 occurred flood will occur exactly once every One block = 1% 10
in 1994. It killed close to 50 people 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
and caused almost $500 million in flood of any return period to occur
damage. In 1997, 28 of Moldova's more than once in the same year, or U N5
40 provinces experienced floods, to appear in consecutive years, or not Annua average 2
causing nine deaths and about $70 to happen at all over a long period of L,
million in damage. Further flooding time. Edinet 10-year 100-year
occurred in 1999, 2002, and 2005
with smaller impacts, ranging from If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
$1 million to nearly $10 million in same height, then the impact of a 10- Soroca
damage. This record highlights Mol- year event is as large as that ofa 100- Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
dova's vulnerability to floods. While year event, and the annual average of
not always devastating, they have a affected GDP is dominated by events
relatively large cumulative effect on that happen relatively frequently.
the country when they follow one If the impact of a 100-year event is
another quickly. much greater than that of a 10-year
event, then less frequent events make
This map depicts the impact of flood- a larger contribution to the annual Dubasari
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even U
as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP
age GDPs affected, with greater color seems small, less frequent and more
saturation indicating higher percent- intense events can still have large Ch nau
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP impacts.
affected by floods with return periods RO MANA
of 10 years (white) and 100 years The annual avenge population affect-
(black). The horizontal line across the ed by flooding in Moldova is aboutTighina
bars also shows the annual average of 70,000 and the annual average affect-
GDP affected by floods. ed GDP about $100 million. Within
the various provinces, the 10- and
When a flood has a 10-year return 100-year impacts do not differ much,
period, it means the probability of so relatively frequent floods have Gagauzia
occurrence of a flood of that magni- large impacts on these averages.
tude or greater is 10 percent per year.
A 100-year flood has a probability CahulBLACK SEA
of occurrence of 1 percent per year.
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will,
MolovaWORLDBANKGROUP ELGDR ROPE AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA)
M o d v isG DR RIS PROFILES 3
T he worst earthquake af- fact, it is possible for an earthquake
fecting Moldova since 1900 of any return period to occur more Affected GDP (%) for
* 10 and 100-year return periods
occurred in 1986 in Vrancea, than once in the same year, or to
Onebl[ock=10% 100
Romania, with a magnitude of 7.2. It appear in consecutive years, or not
killed at least four people in Moldo- to happen at all over a long period
va and caused over $200 million in of time. Uo
damage. Other major earthquakes Annual average 20
affecting Moldova occurred in 1802, If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
1838, 1940, 1977, and 1990, and same height, then the impact of a Edinet 10-year 100-year
all were centered in Vrancea. The 10-year event is as large as that of a
1802 event was one of the largest 100-year event, and the annual av-
earthquakes on record to occur in erage of affected GDP is dominated Soroca
Europe. by events that happen relatively fre- Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
quently. If the impact of a 100-year
This map depicts the impact of event is much greater than that of
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, a 10-year event, then less frequent
represented as percentages of their events make larger contributions to
annual average GDPs affected, with the annual average of affected GDP. Orhei
greater color saturation indicating Thus, even if a province's annual
higher percentages. The bar graphs affected GDP seems small, less fre- Dubasari
represent GDP affected by earth- quent and more intense events can
quakes with return periods of 10 still have large impacts. *hsia
years (white) and 100 years (black). *
The horizontal line across the bars The annual average population Chisinau
also shows the annual average of affected by earthquakes in Moldo-
GDP affected by earthquakes. va is about 20,000 and the annual ROMANA
average affected GDP about $40
When an earthquake has a 10-year million. The annual averages of fa- Tighina
return period, it means the prob- talities and capital losses caused by
ability of occurrence of an earth- earthquakes are about 20 and about
quake of that magnitude or greater $50 million, respectively. The Fatal-
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year ities and capital losses caused by
earthquake has a probability of more intense, less frequent events
occurrence of 1 percent per year. can be substantially larger than
This means that over a long period the annual averages. For example,
of time, an earthquake of that mag- an earthquake with a 0.4 percent auBLACK SEA
nitude will, on average, occur once annual probability of occurrence (a
every 100 years. It does not mean 250-year return period event) could
a 100-year earthquake will occur cause about $4 billion in capital loss
exactly once every 100 years. In (about 60 percent of GDP).
M Ol ovaWORLDBANKGROUP EL|GFDRR "AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
0 for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Gagauzia Tighina 0 agauzia 1 loss occurs in Chisinau, which is not surprising, given the
economic importance of the province.
cz
%r
EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 ,EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
1 affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
3.5 30 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts
2080 2.5 20the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
a20
and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Mol-
2r 1dova had experienced a 100-year return period flood event
1.5 in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated
1.0 cu 10 2080 $500 million. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the
2015 same type of event would range from about $2 billion to
22015
--0.5 about $3 billion. If Moldova had experienced a 250-year
2015 earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have
10 50 100 250 10 50 100 250 been about $4 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the
Return period (years) Return period (years) same type of event would range from about $20 billion to
10 - 2 1 0.4 10 2 1 04 about $30 billion, due to population growth, urbanization,
Probabihty (%) Probability(%) and the increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EMDAT: International Disaster Database (Universiti Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdatbe, and J. Daniell and A.Schae-
fer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP EI GROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKEt
GDP $4.0 billion* G i
Montenegro
ROS NIA AND HERBZEFC A
M ontenegro's population and and agriculture making a small
economy are exposed to earth- contribution. Montenegro's per S ER BIA
quakes and floods, with floods capita GDP was $6,470.
posing the greater risk. The model
results for present-day risk shown in This map displays GDP by prov-
this risk profile are based on population ince in Montenegro, with great- P[jevlja
and gross domestic product (GDP) esti- er color saturation indicating
mates for 2015. The estimated damage greater GDP within a province.
caused by historical events is inflated to he blue circles indicate the risk
2015 US dollars. of experiencing floods and the
ora. nge ci rcl es the risk of earth - amke(ni
Just over 60 percent of Montenegro's quakes in terms of noralized
population lives in urban environments. annual avenge of affected GDP. Savnik 4ojkovac
The country's GDP was approximately The largest circles represent the
US$4.0 billion in 2015, with close to 90 greatest normalized risk- The Berane Ro7aj
percent derived from services, most of risk is estimated using flood and
the remainder generated by industry, earthquake risk models.
The table displays the provincesAndrjvc
at greatest normalized risk for /Annual Average of Affected GWN (%
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES each peril. In relative terms, as 10
-K> shown in the table, the province 00~I FLO
Ar> at greatest risk of floods is BijeOH'rceg iNoERTvUK
EATQAE PoIje, and the one at greatest 1ARHQ-K
EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF risk of earthquakes is Budva. In
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) absolute terms, the province at Negligible
greatest risk of both floods andBuv
Bijelo Polje 11 Budva 4 earthquakes is Podgorica.
Danilovgrad Ulcinj 3 GOP (billions of$)
Berane 6 Darilovgrad 2
Andrijevica 5 Kotor 2 There is a high correlation
Podgorica 3 Bar 2 (r=0.95) between the
Play 1 Podgorica 2 ADRIA[IC SEA populationand GDPoa
Ulcinj 0 Tivat 2 province.
Bar 0 Cetinje 2
Pluzine 0 Niksic 2
Cetinje ea Herceg Novi 1
M onte egroWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR ROPE" AND EENTRAL A51A(ECA)
F loods in 2010, declared by the If the 10- and 100-year bars are the Affected GDP (%) for
country's government as the same height, then the impact of a 10- BOSNIA AND HER Z EGO VINA 10 and 100-year return periods
"worst floods ever recorded,"1 year event is as large as that ofa 100- One block = 5% 40
affected over 5,000 people in Mon- year event, and the annual average of
tenegro. In 2014, a devastating flood affected GDP is dominated by events 20
in the Balkans also affected Monte- that happen relatively frequently. Annua average 10
negro, although at the time of this If the impact of a 100-year event is S ER BIA
publication its impact had not been much greater than that of a 10-year 10-year 100-year
quantified. event, then less frequent events make
a larger contribution to the annual
This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even Pijevija
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP Annual Average of Affected GOP (%)
as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more
age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large
saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. Z Plu7ab[jak
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP
affected by floods with return periods The annual average population ---
of 10 years (white) and 100 years affected by flooding in Montenegro is Savnik Mojkovac
(black). The horizontal line across the about 10,000 and the annual average
bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $90 million. With- Rozaj
GDP affected by floods. in the various provinces, the 10- and Niksic
100-year impacts do not differ much, Kotasin
When a flood has a 10-year return so relatively frequent floods have
period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages.
occurrence of a flood of that magni- osovo
tude or greater is 10 percent per year. Kotor Cetinje
A 100-year flood has a probability
of occurrence of 1 percent per year. Herceg Novi
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will,
on average, occur once every 100
years. It does not mean a 100-year Budva
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
flood of any return period to occur ADRIATIC SEA Bar
more than once in the same year, or ALBANIA
to appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period of
time. Ulcinj
EL ROP AND CENRA ASI (ECA)
M onteneg ro WORLDBANKGROUP @ GFDRR RS ANOFIESETAA5AEA
ontenegro's worst earth- year, or to appear in consecutive ad GOP (%) for
quake since 1900 took years, or not to happen at all over a BOSNIA AND ERZEGOVINA 10 100
place in 1979. The earth- long period of time O
quake caused over 120 fatalities
and close to $13 billion in damage.
Other earthquakes affecting Mon- the same height, then the impact Annua average
tenegro during the twentieth cen- of a 10-year event a r e
tury occurred in 1905 and 1968. thtoa10-ervn,adte
trocurdi195ad16. annual average of affected GDP is 10-year 100-year
This map depicts the impact of dominated by events that happen
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, relatively frequently. If the impact Pja jf
represented as percentages of ofa 100-year event is much great-
their annual average GDPs affect- erthan that of a 10-year event, 4
ed, with greater color saturation then less frequent events make
indicating higher percentages. The larger contributions to the annual
bar graphs represent GDP affected avenge of affected GDP Thus, even
by earthquakes with return peri- if a province's annual affected GDP
ods of 10 years (white) and 100 seems small, less frequent and ? kovac
years (black). The horizontal line more intense events can still have
across the bars also shows the large impacts. Berane Rozaj
annual average of GDP affected by
eathuke.The annual average population af-Wai
earthquakes.
fected by earthquakes in Montene- 'Andrijovica ~-
When an earthquake has a 10- gro is about 9,000 and the annual
year return period, it means the avenge affected GDP about $70 KOSOVO
probability of occurrence of an million. The annual avenges of PLay
earthquake of that magnitude or fatalities and capital losses caused
greater is 10 percent per year. A by earthquakes are about eight Herr g
100-year earthquake has a prob- and about $10 million, respec-
ability of occurrence of 1 percent tively. The fatalities and capital
per year. This means that over a losses caused by more intense, less
long period of time, an earthquake frequent events can be substantial-
of that magnitude will, on average, ly larger than the annual averages.
occur once every 100 years. It does For example, an earthquake with
not mean a 100-year earthquake a GA percent annual probability
will occur exactly once every 100 of occurrence (a 250-year return ALBANIA
years. In fact, it is possible for an period event) could cause $400
earthquake of any return period to million in capital loss (about 10
occur more than once in the same percent of GOP).
M onteneg-WORLDBANKGROUP ER "AD ENTRALA51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
1,
co he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
ofor greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Kotor 500,00 )novgrad Tivat 0 Danilovgrad 0 loss occurs in Podgorica, which is not surprising, given the
economic importance of the province.
Z4Sa Pn7erskaya, Samiarskaya
affected by earthquakes.P0LANDBrasaaLptky Tmbvaa
Whn neatquk hsa 0yer fatalities and capital losses caused BYnYaLetky Trbokvi' _ frnJgkyt Novo5ibrskaya
When an earthquake has a 10-yearand Kurskayz iratovskaya,
return period, it means the probabil- about $400 million, respectively. The Altayskiy
ity of occurrence of an earthquake fatalities and capital losses caused [AKgradskaya K_AL AKHST_AN
of that magnitude or greater is 10 by more intense, less frequent events
;R6bsiovskaYa,-
percent per year. A 100-year earth- can be substantially largerthan the Amaklwnrka
quake has a probability of occurrence annual averages. For example, an [A[rnkiya
of 1 percent per year. This means earthquake with a 0.4 percent annual Krasnctlr.ki
that over a long period of time, an probability ofoccurrence (a 250-year Adygeya
earthquake of that magnitude will, on r peio e c S-AK
average, occur once every 100 years. about 10,000 fatalities and $6 billion DagestaL
It does not mean a 100-year earth- in capital loss (less than 1 percent of Sebarnino-balkariyaaAkiSevernaEa _AA
quake will occur exactly once every GDP). T
100 years. In fact, it is possible for
WORLIDBANK GROUP EL GFDRR AFND CEN TRAL A5]A (ECA)
Taymyrskiy
Sakha
\kaChukotskiy
Evenkiyskiy
Maqadanskaya
e - Koryaksk i
Krasnoyarskiy
Kemerovskaya r
Khahirovskiy
U st Burki Cht yAmurskaya
Tyva
Sakhali a
Khakasiya
Atay Affected GDP (%) for AnnuaL Average of Affected GDP (%)
10 and 100-year return periods
One block =10% 100 Primorskiy
50
AnnLual average --L_ 20
10-year 100-year
Rus ian Fed rat onWORLDBANKGROUP E|G DR RO" AN CENTRAL A51A(ECA)
EARTHQUAKE K"\ EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES
he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Chechnya Rep. D estan Rep. 40 Severnaya estan Re. loss occurs in Sakhalinskaya Oblast, which is not surprising
given the economic importance of the province.
EARTHQUAKE he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
400 120 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
r 100 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts
2080 300 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
80 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if the
208 3 60Russian Federation had experienced a 100-year return pe-
200 r 60 riod flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been
0O an estimated $60 billion. In 2080, however, the affected
4o 0
2015 GDP from the same type of event would range from about
20 $200 billion to about $400 billion. If the Russian Federation
had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the
affected GDP would have been an estimated $20 billion.
10~~~ 50 0 25 0 10 5
2eturn perd (years) Return period (years) In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same type of
- -- - event would range fromi about $50 billion to about $100
10. 10 2 1 0 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the
Pro ba bility (h robabi[ity(%
increase in exposed assets.
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and J. Daniell arid A.Schae-
fer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.
WORLDBANKGROUP ER EROPE AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS
Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
GDP $36.4 billion* I
Serbia
HUN GAR Y
erbia's population and economy agriculture making a small con- Annual Average of Affected GOP
are exposed to earthquakes and tribution. Serbia's per capita GDP 0
floods, with floods posing the was rn nk40r
greater risk The model results for pres- -his m EARTHQUAKE
ent-day risk shown in this risk profile apadno-bac
are based on population and gross ince in Serbia, with greater color
domestic product (GDP) estimates for saturation indicating greater GDP 0 Negligible
2015. The estimated damage caused by within a province. The blue circles znj-atc
historical events is inflated to 2015 US indicate the risk of experiencing
dollars. floods and the orange circles the GDP (billions of $)
ri sk of earth quake s in term s o f Senk zo n
Just over 55 percent of Serbia's pop- normalized annual average of Bsk
ulation lives in urban environments. affected GDP The largest circles
The country's GDP was approximately represent the greatest normalized
US$36.4 billion in 2015, with about 60 risk The risk is estimated using
percent derived from services, most flood and earthquake risk models. ojai Bracvki Thers is a high correlation
of the rest generated by industry, and 0 (r=095) between ths
The table displays the provinces Kolubrk BorskipolaonndGPfa
at greatest normalized risk for A pounaidGPos
each peril. In relative terms, as -ymdlk
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES shown in the table, the pro.- P
ince at greatest risk of floods is Moraiki
'4 Severno-banatski, and the one 7~ ajecarski 4
EARTHQUAKE at greatest risk of earthquakes t< I alt i b'o