POVERTY POVERTY THE WORLD BANK REDUCTION REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT NETWORK (PREM) NETWORK (PREM) Economic Premise JULY 2010 · Number 22 JUNE 2010 · Number 18 Investing in Gender Equality: Looking Ahead 55743 Trade and the Competitiveness Agenda Mayra Buvinic, Trine Lunde, and Nistha Sinha1 José Guilherme Reis and Thomas Farole The financial crisis of 2008-09 has highlighted the need for greater attention to gender, both to address the vulnerability of countries to global shocks and to reach growth and poverty reduction goals. Investments in girls and women need to be scaled up substantially The global this and other recent crises and, major ahead, to alleviate respective roles of and harness demographic opportunities in response toeconomic crisis has forced a looking rethinking of the demographic stressesgovernments and markets in the processes This is the case because the fate of women policy seems to be back in fashion--or, and low-income about it is. for growth.of trade and growth. Indeed, industrialand girls, especially in low-income countries at least, talkinghouseholds, is But a renewed "activism" by government in the trade and growth agenda need not mean a return to old-style closely linked to the economic prospects of these countries and these households. policies of import substitution and "picking winners." Instead, it may mean a stronger focus on competitiveness by unlocking the constraints to private sector­led growth. This note discusses the renewed role of government in trade and Business Case for Gender Equality Thegrowth policy from the competitiveness angle, and it suggests some priorities for the new competitiveness agenda. (Sabarwal, Sinha, and Buvinic 2009). At the same time, lower aggregate demand also affects the jobs and earnings of self-em- Greater gender equality in the family, the market, and society, ployed women in the informal sector. Similarly, female workers can help reduce poverty and promote growth--directly by can be especially hurt by employment losses in export sectors boosting women's participation in the labor force, and indi- Export-Led Growth, the Crisis, and the End directly affected by the policy environment regarding trade pacts of the crisis on lagging global demand. Women often make rectly through the beneficial effects of women's empowerment of an Era up a large proportion of the workforce in export manufactur- and growth were becoming more apparent. Indeed, in addi- on child development outcomes (figure 1). Investments in gen- ing (such as concerns over the global commitment to Phil- tion to raisingin Bangladesh, Cambodia, Nicaragua, and thetrade der equality can therefore help minimize the long-term nega- The dramatic expansion in global trade over recent decades ippines) and high-value agricultural exports serious in Ecua- liberalization, the crisis has also led to some (such as rethink- tive consequences of crises on human outcomes and improve has contributed significantly to diversification, growth, and dor, some of the conventional wisdom regarding the ing of Thailand, and Uganda). prospects for development in a post-crises world. poverty reduction in many developing countries. This period The food and fuel crises and the opportunities brought growth agenda--the most important result of which is the of rapid of Food, Fuel, been enabled by two critical Impact export growth hasand Financial Crises about by the governments will tropical high-value activist likelihood that growing markets forplay a much moreproduce structural changes in global trade: (1) the vertical and spatial have attracted renewed There are agriculture, food security role in the coming years.attention tothree principal reasons The impacts of the recent food, fuel, and financial crises have fragmentation of manufacturing into highly integrated and rural development, and the role actively farmers. in why governments are likely to be moreof female involved In highlighted the vulnerability of developing countries to global "global production networks," and (2) the rise of services many low-income policy in the coming years. industrial and tradecountries, particularly in sub-Saharan Afri- trade and the growth of "offshoring." shocks, these, in turn, shocksand the gender dimensions of theseBoth of especially in ca, agriculture is has most important sector as a sharediscred- First, the crisis the undone faith in markets and of gross were made possible by major agricultural production, and relationship to the labor market,technological revolutions; and domestic product (GDP) and employment, elevating the im- ited laissez-faire approaches that rely simply on trade policy human development outcomes. they were supported by multilateral trade policy reforms portance of broad-based growth in agricultural incomes for liberalization. Instead, governments and local markets have In the labor market, where domestic trade and is below and broad liberalizations inwomen's participation investment stimulating economic this sense, the demand countries, been "rediscovered." In growth. In many of thesefor activist that of men in virtually all developing countries and is concen- environments worldwide. women have a large role well beyond financial women and government is likely to goin food production. Yet, marketscon- The certain sectors, economywide crashing into the middle trated inglobal economic crisis cameshocks affect their labor tinue to and less access to land, fertilizers, seeds, credit, and regulation, have it will affect the policy environment in which of this long-running export-led Evidence shows that dur- force participation in specific ways. growth party during 2008 extension services strategies are designed. trade and industrial than men. Furthermore, women's access to and 2009. Between the vulnerable of 2007 and the the ing crises, particularly in last quarterhouseholds where second output markets and has highlighted theand theirimportance Second, the crisis profitable cash crops critical control over quarter of 2009, has lost a job or faces by 36 earnings, main breadwinnerglobal trade contractedreducedpercent. But household resources tend to products, and trading partners) of diversification (of sectors, be constrained, affecting produc- as the will look started to strengthen in 2010 (at least until womenrecoveryfor work to maintain household consumption reducing efficiency in the agricultural sector (World Bank in tivity and the risks of growth volatility. The recent era of the clouds began to form over Europe), the longer-term im- globalization contributed to substantial specialization of 1 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise 1 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise Figure 1. Women's Earnings, Children's Well-being, and Aggregate Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth Source: World Bank 2007. 2007). Providing women equitable access to economic oppor- Harnessing Demographic T rends for tunities and resources would make agriculture a more efficient Development in a Post-Crisis World vehicle for promoting shared economic growth, reducing pov- erty, and improving food security. Over the longer term, demographic trends help countries priori- Crises also affect human development outcomes, especially tize gender mainstreaming in the sectors most likely to have the the survival of infant girls. Friedman and Schady (2009) esti- greatest impact on development effectiveness and poverty re- mate that the growth slowdown in 2009 will result in 28,000 duction. Demographic processes affect the share of the working- to 49,000 more deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, most of them age population and the fiscal space (both in total fiscal resources infant girls. An analysis of 59 low-income countries estimates and priorities) and therefore influence the prospects of countries that a 1 percent drop in per capita GDP raises infant mortal- for poverty reduction and economic growth. Demographic ity by 0.27 deaths per 1,000 births for boys and 0.53 deaths stresses caused by high fertility rates or high young adult mortal- per 1,000 births for girls--almost twice as high as for boys (Baird, Friedman, and Schady 2007). An analysis by Buvinic ity rates can be eased by investments in gender equality. And in- (2009) of the progress of countries toward the Millennium vestments to expand women's ability to earn and control income Development Goals (MDGs) suggests that girls in poor can strengthen prospects for gains when demographic condi- households in countries with high child mortality or low fe- tions improve (Buvinic, Das Gupta, and Casabonne 2009). male schooling are especially vulnerable to the effects of the Trends in fertility and mortality rates are categorized in four global economic and food crises. The situation of young and demographic scenarios: demographic explosion (countries with infant girls is most precarious in countries, most in Africa, high fertility and more than 40 percent of the population be- with high child mortality, low female schooling, and deceler- low age 20 and thus with high youth dependency ratios); demo- ating growth (figure 2). graphic transition (countries where declining fertility has led to Crisis-Response Priorities a high proportion of working-age adults relative to children and the elderly); demographic implosion (countries where the popu- If left unaddressed, the gender-specific consequences of crises lation is aging rapidly as a result of continuing low fertility and will contribute to current poverty and imperil future develop- declining adult mortality); and demographic hourglass (coun- ment. Table 1 includes summaries of promising policy respons- tries where the prime working-age population has been re- es that build on the role of women as economic agents and their duced by premature adult mortality, either as a result of violent preference for investing resources for the well-being of chil- conflict or disease, such as HIV/AIDS). Table 2 lists countries dren. These policies can go a long way toward mitigating the negative effects of crises. by their demographic status 2 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise Figure 2. Impact of the Crises: Countries' Progress toward the Millennium Development Goals Source: For growth, IMF (2009); for mortality rates and gender parity in education, World Bank (2009b). Note: Countries with high infant mortality rates are those in the highest quartile of the distribution of under-5 mortality rates (per 1,000 live births) for 151 developing countries in 2007. Countries with low female schooling rates are those in the lowest quartile of the distribution of the ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary enrollment for 131 developing countries for the latest available data between 2004 and 2007. Table 1. Priorities for Crisis-Response Activities Impact area of crisis Key issues Priority investments Labor markets · Women in the informal sector, particularly the self- · Public works programs designed to reach women seeking employed, lose jobs or face a decline in earnings. jobs (offering appropriate work and facilities such as child · Men lose jobs or their earnings decline; women not care). previously in the labor force search for jobs to maintain · Cash transfer programs and other safety nets, maximizing household consumption. the impact of cash transfer programs by channeling · Sectors that are large employers of women, such as export resources through mothers. manufacturing, lay off workers or reduce salaries. · Access to credit and savings for women. Human development outcomes · Families cut back on food consumed by mothers and · Nutritional supplementation and feeding programs for children, likely increasing infant mortality. mothers and children. · Child labor increases. · Cash transfer programs and other safety nets, maximizing · Investments in children's (boys and girls) education decline. the impact of cash transfer programs by channeling resources through mothers. Agricultural production · Farmers, especially women farmers, face reduced access to · Fertilizer and seed distribution programs designed to inputs. ensure access for women farmers. · Better access to rural services, finance, training, and markets for women farmers. Source: Authors' compilation. Demographic Explosion Scenario total population of 830 million are under age 20. The high ado- lescent fertility rate is a concern in these countries (figure 3, Out of the 134 countries for which there are complete data, 43 panel A). The rate declined only marginally during 1990­ countries are in the demographic explosion stage, mostly in 2006 (World Bank 2009a). Births to mothers aged 15­24 ac- sub-Saharan Africa. The number of children and young people count for between 30 to 50 percent of all births in more than in these countries is at an all-time high: 450 million out of a half of the countries in the explosion stage. 3 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise Table 2. Countries by Demographic Setting in 2010 and 2015 Early transition Explosion 2010 2010 Early transition Explosion 2010 Early transition Early transition 2010 Transition 2010 Transition 2010 Implosion 2010 Region Explosion 2015 2015 2015 Transition 2015 Transition 2015 Implosion 2015 Implosion 2015 Africa Angolaa Congo Botswanaa South Africaa Mauritius Benin Eritrea Burundia Burkina Faso São Tomé and Cape Verde Cameroonb Principe Comoros Central African Sudan Djibouti Republicb Swaziland Gabona Chad Togo Namibiaa Côte d'Ivoire Zimbabweb Ghana Congo, Dem. Rep. Mauritania ofa Ethiopia Equatorial Guinea Gambia, The Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesothob Liberiaa Madagascar Malawib Mali Mozambiquec Niger Nigeria Rwandaa Senegal Sierra Leonea Somalia Tanzaniab Ugandab Zambiab East Asia Timor-Leste Samoa Cambodia Fiji China and Pacific Tonga Lao PDR Indonesia Micronesia Korea, Rep. of Papua New Guinea Malaysia Philippines Mongolia Solomon Islands Myanmar Vanuatu Thailand Vietnam Europe and Tajikistan Uzbekistan Albania Bosnia and Bulgaria Central Armenia Herzegovina Croatia Asia Azerbaijan Georgia Romania Belarus Poland Ukraine Kazakhstan Russian Kyrgyzstan Federation Macedonia Serbia, Republic Moldova of Montenegro Turkey Turkmenistan continued on next page 4 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise Table 2. Countries by Demographic Setting in 2010 and 2015 (continued) Early transition Explosion 2010 2010 Early transition Explosion 2010 Early transition Early transition 2010 Transition 2010 Transition 2010 Implosion 2010 Region Explosion 2015 2015 2015 Transition 2015 Transition 2015 Implosion 2015 Implosion 2015 Latin Guatemalab Belize Dominican Argentina America Bolivia Republic Brazil and Haiti Ecuador Chile Caribbean Honduras El Salvador Colombia Nicaragua Costa Rica Paraguay Grenada Guyana Jamaica Mexico Panama Peru Saint Lucia Saint Vincent Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela, R. B. de Middle East Yemen, Rep. of Iraqb Egypt, Arab Rep. Algeria and North of Iran Africa Jordan Lebanon Syrian Arab Rep. Libya Morocco Tunisia South Asia Afghanistana Nepala Bangladesh Maldives Pakistan Bhutan Sri Lanka India Source: Authors' analysis based on data from the United Nations Population. Notes: Explosion: over 40 percent of population under the age of 20; early transition: over 40 percent under age 20, but with 45 percent or more aged 20­59; transition: over 50 percent aged 20­59; implosion: more than 20 percent over age 60. a. Countries affected by high HIV/AIDS prevalence. b. Countries affected by violent conflict. c. Countries affected by both high HIV/AIDS prevalence and violent conflict. Teenage mothers are more likely than older women to die of vices, is an important reason underlying the high maternal pregnancy-related complications, which are a major cause of mortality and the high risks associated with teenage pregnancy death in high-fertility settings (Conde-Agudelo, Belizan, and (figure 3, panel C). Young women are therefore an important Lammers 2005; WHO 2004). Pregnant women in demo- group to reach with maternal health and family planning ser- graphic explosion countries face much higher maternal mortal- vices and information. ity risks than do their counterparts in other countries (see fig- The large number of young people under age 20 presents a ure 3, panel B). An important reason is low access to prenatal major challenge as countries struggle to provide education and care and to skilled health care providers during childbirth (fig- employment opportunities during the current economic crisis. ure 3, panel D). New estimates show that many countries have Reflecting the push for universal primary education, girls' en- made significant headway in reducing maternal mortality in rollment rates in demographic explosion countries rose sub- recent decades, indicating that the problem is not insurmount- stantially, reducing the gap between girls' and boys' primary able. Nevertheless, the gap between rich and poor countries re- and secondary school enrollment by 10 percentage points dur- mains alarmingly high; for example, for every 100,000 live ing 1991­2006. Yet a large gap remains and primary school births in West Africa, 629 mothers die, compared to 7 mothers completion rates are lower for girls (50 percent) than for boys in Western Europe (Hogan and others 2010). (63 percent; figure 4). Secondary school enrollment also re- Low access to skilled health care providers, whether in the mains very low in sub-Saharan Africa (24 percent of girls and form of skilled attendance at birth or access to prenatal care ser- 33 percent of boys). 5 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise Figure 3. Gender Gaps in Development Outcomes Vary by Countries' Demographic Stage Panel A: Adolescent fertility rate, 2003­8 Panel B: Maternal mortality rate, 2003­8 Panel C: Births attended by skilled health provider, 2003­8 Panel D: Pregnant women receiving prenatal care, 2003­8 Source: World Bank 2008. Note: Population-weighted averages, number of countries in parentheses. By 2015, nine explosion countries will face improved demo- and Zimbabwe) will have lost an estimated 35 percent or more graphic conditions and enter the demographic transition stage of their working-age populations (ILO 2006). Moreover, many characterized by a youth bulge and greater opportunities for more women than men are affected, and at a younger age. The growth and poverty reduction. But at the same time, spikes in Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates that premature adult mortality caused by violent conflict or HIV/ three-quarters of Africans aged 15­24 who are HIV positive AIDS will exacerbate demographic stresses in nearly a third of are women (UNAIDS 2008). On the other hand, wars tend to the countries in demographic explosion. affect men, especially young men, more than women. Either Demographic Hourglass Scenario way, populations are truncated. Conflict and high HIV/AIDS prevalence have a large negative impact on GDP growth through Twenty-four countries in demographic explosion and early loss of labor productivity, because of illness and death, and in- transition face high levels of adult mortality, often predomi- creased health care expenditures that deplete savings and re- nantly of one gender, as a result of armed conflict or disease, duce capital accumulation and expenditures on education such as HIV/AIDS. With economies depleted of working-age (Corrigan, Glomm, and Mendez 2005). adults, these are the most demographically stressed countries. In post-conflict countries, additional challenges include re- Nine low-income countries have an HIV/AIDS prevalence ducing high levels of violence against women and demobilizing rate among adults of greater than 5 percent. By 2020, some of and rehabilitating ex-combatants. Rape and sexual abuse of the most affected countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, women and girls have been pervasive in recent conflicts, either 6 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise Figure 4. Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary School Enrollment and Completion Rates for Girls and Boys, 2003­8 Panel A: Gross primary enrollment Panel B: Primary completion rates Panel C: Gross secondary enrollment Panel D: Gross tertiary enrollment Source: World Bank 2008. Note: Population-weighted averages; numbers of countries are in parentheses. AFR = Africa Region; EAP = East Asia and Pacific Region; ECA = Europe. and Central Asia; LCR = Latin American and Caribbean Region; MNA = Middle East and North Africa Region; SAR = South Africa Region. as a deliberate tactic of war or a crime of opportunity. Victim Although fertility rates are lower in countries experiencing treatment programs are needed, but so are violence prevention a demographic transition, poor maternal health remains a con- initiatives including, in particular, promising situational pre- cern. Among countries that have just entered this phase (early vention efforts that seek to reduce the opportunities for vio- transition), use of maternal health services (skilled attendance lence against women. An estimated 300,000 children under at birth and prenatal care) remains low (see figure 3, panels C age 18 are fighting in wars or have recently been demobilized and D). Moreover, in some demographic transition countries, (World Bank 2006). Initiatives to reintegrate ex-combatants such as Bangladesh, India, and Nicaragua, births to young into society include a range of second-chance programs, includ- women still make up a large share of all births. Thus, a focus on ing medical and psychosocial support. the reproductive health of young women and adolescents re- Demographic Transition Scenario mains a priority for this group of countries as well. Eighty-seven countries--65 percent of the countries for which The window of opportunity for the high growth and pover- there are complete data--are currently in the early or middle ty reduction--the demographic dividend--provided by a large phases of a demographic transition, with large working-age and young workforce has opened for 37 low-income countries. populations relative to children and the elderly. By 2015, five But if this opportunity is to result in accelerated growth, gov- countries will have moved into the implosion stage. ernments need to invest in these new and future workers and 7 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise facilitate their participation in the labor force by increasing em- Because expansion of the formal sector to levels that can ab- ployment opportunities. sorb a large share of women (and men) into the workforce in Gender inequality in schooling and employment can limit low-income countries is still far in the future, interventions the potential for economic growth by reducing labor productiv- need to target improving women's productivity in agriculture ity. Currently, the biggest challenge for countries in demo- and in the informal sector, in both rural and urban areas. graphic transition is to raise secondary enrollment and comple- Demographic Implosion Scenario tion rates for both boys and girls, especially in sub-Saharan Currently, only four countries (all middle income) face the de- Africa, East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia, where second- mographic implosion scenario. By 2015, another five coun- ary enrollment rates are at 30­40 percent in countries in the tries, including two low-income countries, will also find them- early stage of transition. Tertiary enrollment is also extremely selves in this scenario. Looking even further ahead, population low in low-income countries, at less than 20 percent for coun- aging will become a major phenomenon and accelerate during tries in early transition. the next 25 years. The ratio of employment to population in demographic Women comprise by far the greater number and proportion transition countries in South Asia is 24.4 percent for young of older populations in these countries, especially in Eastern women aged 15­24, which is less than half the ratio for young Europe and the former Soviet Union. The average life expec- men (58.4 percent; figure 5). Facilitating the entry of young tancy for women in Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, Romania, the women into the labor force and increasing their employment Russian Federation, the Republic of Serbia, and Ukraine com- opportunities are crucial steps for early transition countries to bined is 75 years, compared to 65 for men. The central issue of reap the full benefit of their investments in girls' education and the aging population is increased poverty and vulnerability. to take advantage of the acceleration in growth offered by the These problems are more acute for women, not only because demographic dividend. Investing in adolescent reproductive they tend to live longer than men, but because women tend to health to reduce early childbearing is another way to increase be disadvantaged in the patriarchal societies in which they live. the number of women transitioning from school to work. The consequences of gender roles (men as "breadwinners," With fewer children than before, women are better placed women as "housekeepers") become distinctly apparent in aging to enter the labor market. However, with the exception of sub- populations. In situations where pension schemes accrue main- Saharan African and East Asian countries, women's labor force ly to employees, women who have not worked in the formal sec- participation in demographic transition countries is far below tor for most of their adult lives become even more heavily reli- that of men (figure 6). This low participate rate emphasizes the ant on their husbands' status and pensions. Older women who need for designing labor market and other policies to encourage are single, widowed, or divorced are especially vulnerable, re- entrepreneurship (including expanding access to technology ceiving few or none of the entitlements received by men. There and finance) to help women invest in productive skills and al- is also a future cohort of older men that may become vulnera- locate their time to self-employment and wage labor. ble: in the few societies where the "culling" of infant girls will Figure 5. Ratios of Employment to Population by Gender for Ages 15­24 Figure 6. Labor Force Participation Rate by Region and Demographic Stage, 2003­8 Source: World Bank 2008. Note: Population-weighted averages; numbers in parentheses are number of countries in each region. AFR = Africa Region; EAP = East Asia and Pacific Source: World Bank 2008. Region; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; LCR = Latin American and Caribbean Note: Population-weighted averages; numbers in parentheses are number of Region; MNA = Middle East and North Africa Region; SAR = South Africa Region. countries in each region. 8 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise result in sharp sex-ratio imbalances, and older, single men will showing promising early results (such as situational violence be left to fend for themselves without the old-age protection prevention). traditionally afforded by the family (Ebenstein and Sharygin While there are gender inequalities in all countries, they 2009). take different forms depending on the country's stage of de- Countries with rapidly aging populations face the chal- mographic transition and help to define priority policy re- lenge of designing affordable old-age support policies with sponses. Low-income, high-fertility, and hourglass countries in expanded coverage to include these future cohorts. Gender- particular need to intensify gender integration in the social sec- informed design and targeting should increase these policies' tors to address "first generation" gender equality issues reflect- reach and affordability. ed in persisting gender gaps in basic human development out- comes. A priority area for intervention (which has suffered a Conclusions: Post-Crisis Priorities decline in development assistance in recent years) is expanding In the short run, investments in gender equality should focus access to quality reproductive health services, including ser- on minimizing the negative impacts of the recent crises on de- vices for adolescents. Late-transition and implosion countries, velopment. In the long run, however, countries will need to on the other hand, need to focus on "second generation" issues, step up investments that respond to their specific circum- such as old-age security, to design affordable old-age support stances and address demographic stresses and opportunities. policies with expanded coverage, especially for vulnerable wid- Table 3 defines priority investments in gender equality for the owed women and, in the few countries with large sex-ratio im- four different demographic scenarios. These are either proven balances, aging protection for vulnerable single, older men to be effective (such as schooling and family planning) or are with no family support. Table 3. Long-Term Investment Priorities for Gender Equality Scenarios Key issues Priority investments Demographic · Lower per capita resources for investment in · Family planning programs to increase birth intervals, reduce teen pregnancies, explosion human capital and growth. and prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission. · Poorer health for women and children, and · Basic reproductive health services, particularly those addressing the reproductive low lifetime earnings for women, greater health needs of adolescents and young women and men. household vulnerability to poverty. · Investments in schooling that increase education quality for all and reduce gender gaps in school enrollment and completion (both supply and demand considerations, such as conditional cash transfers). · Productivity-enhancing and income-earning policies, including those targeting women farmers. Demographic · Potential for rapid economic growth. · Policies that increase labor demand and create economic opportunities for women transition · Additional efforts needed to realize women's (active labor market programs such as skills training, labor-intermediation contribution to growth. programs, trade policies, and facilitation of entrepreneurship and self- employment). · Basic reproductive health services, particularly those addressing the reproductive health needs of adolescents and young women and men. · Child care. Countries moving · Strained public and private resources for · Safety net and pension options for vulnerable elders, typically older women (but toward implosion support. also older men, especially in countries with skewed gender ratios). · Added resource strains as a result of women living longer and having fewer economic resources. Hourglass (due to · Lower potential for economic growth, · Family planning programs to reduce teen pregnancies and prevent mother-to-child HIV/AIDS and conflict) households more vulnerable to poverty. HIV transmission. · If men missing (due to war), female- · Investment in schooling, including accelerated learning programs and programs headed households more vulnerable to targeted to improve the school-to-work transition and skill deficits of poor young poverty. If women missing (due to HIV/ women. AIDS or abandonment or murder of infant · Better access to entrepreneurship and self-employment opportunities for women. girls), unmarried men deprived of familial · Antiretroviral therapy. support. · Interventions to reduce violence against women in post-conflict environments (including situational prevention) and demobilize and rehabilitate ex-combatants. Source: Authors' compilation. 9 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise Empowering women economically emerges as a priority for for the 53rd Session of the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women, March 2­13, New York, NY. all countries regardless of demographic scenario. Economic Buvinic, Mayra, Monica Das Gupta, and Ursula Casabonne. 2009. "Gender, empowerment is a proven way to manage crises and respond to Poverty and Demography: An Overview." World Bank Economic Review 23 demographic stresses. The specific nature of the interventions (3): 347­69. will vary in response to the different development needs of Conde-Agudelo, Agustin, José M. Belizan, and Cristina Lammers. 2005. "Ma- ternal-Perinatal Morbidity and Mortality Associated with Adolescent countries. For example, in low-income countries, providing Pregnancy in Latin America: Cross-Sectional Study." American Journal of women with access to basic agricultural inputs and microfi- Obstetrics and Gynecology 192: 342­49. nance will continue to be fundamental to their economic em- Corrigan, Paul, Gerard Glomm, and Fabio Mendez. 2005. "AIDS, Human powerment, while in transition and late-transition countries, Capital, and Growth." Journal of Development Economics 77 (1): 107­24. women's economic opportunities are linked to an increased fo- Ebenstein, Avraham Y., and Ethan Jennings Sharygin. 2009. "The Conse- quences of the `Missing Girls' of China." World Bank Economic Review 23 cus on transferable skills for the modern labor market, access to (3): 399­425. commercial credit, the formalization of female entrepreneur- Friedman, Jed A., and Norbert Schady. 2009. "How Many More Infants Are ship, and viable child care options. Likely to Die in Africa as a Result of the Global Financial Crisis?" Policy Research Working Paper 5023, World Bank, Washington, D.C. In all sectors, but especially in the area of women's economic Hogan, M., K. Foreman, M. Naghavi, S. Ahn, M. Wang, S. Makela, A. Lopez, R. opportunities, there is a continued need to know what works Lozano, and C. Murray. 2010. "Maternal Mortality for 181 Countries, best, and under which circumstances. At the same time, evi- 1980­2008: A Systematic Analysis of Progress towards Millennium De- dence-based experience and good practices are emerging in a velopment Goal 5." The Lancet 375 (9726): 1609­23. range of countries. South­south dialogue should be intensified ILO (International Labour Organization). 2006. HIV/AIDS and Work: Global Estimates, Impacts on Children and Youth, and Response. Geneva. so that new and innovative responses to a changing world can IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2009. World Economic Outlook Data- be shared, and so that issues related to gender equality and de- base. April, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/ velopment can become more broadly understood. index.aspx. Sabarwal, Shwetlena, Nistha Sinha, and Mayra Buvinic. 2009. "The Global Fi- Note nancial Crisis: Assessing Vulnerability for Women and Children." Policy Brief, World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Net- 1. The authors are grateful for the contribution of Ursula Casa- work, Gender and Development Group, Washington, D.C. bonne to the analysis of demographic trends. UNAIDS (Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS). 2008. Addressing the Vulnerability of Young Women and Girls to Stop the HIV Epidemic in About the Author Southern Africa. Geneva. World Bank. 2006. World Development Report 2007: Development and the Next Mayra Buvinic is sector director and Trine Lunde and Nistha Generation. Washington, D.C. Sinha are economists in the World Bank Gender and Develop- ------. 2007. World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development. 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Paper prepared 55_eng.pdf. The Economic Premise note series is intended to summarize good practices and key policy findings on topics related to economic policy. They are produced by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network Vice-Presidency of the World Bank. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank. The notes are available at: www.worldbank.org/economicpremise. 10 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise