THE POWER SYSTEM IN THE EYE OF THE STORM The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 25 years THE POWER SYSTEM IN THE EYE OF THE STORM The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize Migara S. Jayawardena Borja Garcia Serna Jace Jeesun Han Migara S. Jayawardena is a Senior Energy Specialist in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice at the World Bank and the Task Team Leader of the Energy Resilience for Climate Adaptation Project (ERCAP) Borja Garcia Serna is a former Energy Specialist Consultant at the World Bank Jace Jeesun Han is an Energy Specialist Consultant at the World Bank TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD v MESSAGE FROM THE WORLD BANK COUNTRY DIRECTOR vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi 1. B E L I Z E AT H I G H R I S K F R O M C L I M AT E C H A N G E 1 2. INCREASED RESILIENCE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL 3 3. THE POWER SYSTEM IN BELIZE 5 4. V U L N E R A B I L I T I E S O F T H E P O W E R S E C T O R T O E X T R E M E W E AT H E R 9 Tr o p i c a l S t o r m A l e x 9 Hurricane Dean 13 Hurricane Richard 17 5. B U I L D I N G R E S I L I E N C E F O R E N H A N C E D C L I M AT E A D A P TAT I O N 23 I L L U S T R AT I O N 1: S e g m e n t a t i o n o f t h e Tr a n s m i s s i o n N e t w o r k 24 I L L U S T R AT I O N 2: S t r e n g t h e n i n g o f Tr a n s m i s s i o n N e t w o r k S t r u c t u r e s 27 I L L U S T R AT I O N 3: I m p r o v e d Ve g e t a t i o n M a n a g e m e n t 30 I L L U S T R AT I O N 4: Distribution System Infrastructure Strengthening 32 I L L U S T R AT I O N 5: Emergency Response and Recovery Planning 33 6. T H E E N E R G Y R E S I L I E N C E F O R C L I M AT E A D A P TAT I O N P R O J E C T 35 BIBLIOGRAPHY 39 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize iii FOREWORD Honorable Minister Frank Mena Minister of State for Ministry of Finance, Public Service, Energy & Public Utilities Belize is a country that is blessed with history and of energy infrastructure, storm surges along the beauty. It has unrivaled marine life in the Caribbean extensive coastal areas damaging electrical Sea along the longest barrier reef in the Northern equipment, electrical faults from fallen trees, and Hemisphere. Our lush tropical forests not only serve increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns causing as a habitat to an array of wild life, but also conceal volatility in hydropower availability—these are all ruins from ancient Mayan civilizations that thrived realities that we live with in Belize. While we have centuries ago. The true beauty of Belize, of course, little control over the weather and the climate, we is its people—a multi-ethnic community at a cultural do have the power to take action to better adapt cross road living in peace and harmony. A large and to such adversity. growing number of tourists visit Belize to experience these wonders, which has become a key economic I welcome this paper and its accompanying analyses driver. Bountiful resources contribute to agricultural that served as a basis for the interventions planned industries, fisheries and logging that play an impor- under the Energy Resilience for Climate Adaptation tant role in economic growth. The relatively recent Project with support from the World Bank through discovery of oil is further exemplifying the importance the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and techni- of the energy sector in Belize. These developments cal assistance from the Energy Sector Management have helped our economy grow with prosperity Assistance Program (ESMAP). The authors apply a shared among many. However, these hard earned novel approach evaluating the impact of several gains are fragile, and could easily face set-backs. past storms and hurricanes on the power system by identifying specific “events” that led to a variety of One major concern we often grapple with is infrastructure damage and electricity service disrup- extreme weather, which is likely to get worse in tions. Such an analysis lends valuable insights into the future because of climate change. As the title not only the resulting financial losses to the power of this paper indicates, Belize is often in the Eye company, but even more significantly, the broader of the Storm. Our geographical location makes economic impact due to the unserved electricity. It Belize highly susceptible to hurricanes and tropi- highlights the need to harden energy infrastructure cal storms that frequent the Caribbean. They often and strengthen the institutional capabilities so as to lead to significant damages and economic losses, enhance the resilience of the power system in order which serve as major set-backs to our development to minimize damages and service disruptions from progress. Belize’s infrastructure is particularly vul- future storms and hurricanes. The paper also illus- nerable, and the power sector is no exception. trates a set of scenarios that is particularly important High winds knocking down power lines, flooding in identifying and justifying various actions Belize The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize v Electricity Limited (BEL) plans to take in order to identify its vulnerabilities, the analytical approach improve system reliability in the face of extreme applied by the authors is certainly applicable to weather. We are grateful to the World Bank and GEF other countries facing similar concerns, both in the for helping us implement these reforms. region and globally. Therefore, I am pleased that this work is being more broadly disseminated to While the analysis in this paper was carried out inform a wider audience with interest in energy resil- specifically for the power system in Belize to help ience and climate adaption. Minister Frank Mena Minister of State for Ministry of Finance, Public Service, Energy & Public Utilities vi The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize MESSAGE FROM THE WORLD BANK COUNTRY DIRECTOR Addressing the impacts of climate change is a In response, the World Bank is assisting the development imperative. Therefore, the World Bank Government of Belize (GoB) to enhance its resil- places great importance in supporting countries ience against extreme weather by building climate that take actions in reducing the harmful impacts resilient roads and making the power system bet- of climate change. This is the case of Belize, where ter prepared and resilient to storms, hurricanes and the World Bank in recent years has strategically natural hazards. bolstered its effort to enhance resilience in order to reduce vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate This report presents an innovative approach to change and natural hazards. identify and analyze particular vulnerabilities in the power sector in Belize; and helps formulate and val- Belize is often affected by extreme weather events, idate potential solutions. Evaluating past extreme frequently facing hurricanes and tropical storms. weather events helped us better understand future The impacts of these storms can be devastating, risks and potential disruptions to electricity services. causing casualties, damaging property, and leading The World Bank team benefitted greatly from the to disruptions in services that are vital to a thriv- close collaboration with officials from Government ing economy. Steady development progress can and the national electricity utility (BEL) as well as suddenly be set back. The impact on infrastructure other partners. The financial support of the Energy services can have particular significance because of Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) its permeating role throughout the economy facili- and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) was tating productive activity and the provision of social also critical. Ultimately, the analysis helped shape services; and the substantial costs associated with the design of the Energy Resilience for Climate infrastructure damage recovery. The urgency and Adaptation project in Belize. need to address these issues is perfectly exempli- fied by Hurricane Earl that made landfall in Belize I am pleased to share this analysis which I think is on August 4, 2016. The high winds and heavy flood- very relevant for countries across the Caribbean that ing that resulted reportedly made key roads and face similar challenges, but can also be applied in bridges impassable, water services inoperable in other countries where power sectors are vulnerable directly impacted areas, and caused major disrup- to extreme weather and climate change. tions to electricity services. Sophie Sirtaine Country Director for the Caribbean The World Bank The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Migara S. Jayawardena, Borja Garcia Serna and Jace Jeesun Han This paper analyzes the impact of two hurricanes and Design), Guadalupe Rosado (Superintendent, and a tropical storm that affected Belize in order Northern Operations), Rodney Baird (Superintendent, to identify some key vulnerabilities in the power Central Operations), and Khadija Usher (Trainee system to extreme weather, which is likely to be Engineer, Power Generation Planning). A number of exacerbated due to climate change. By addressing other BEL personnel also provided comments during these weaknesses, Belize can significantly enhance the various discussions and presentations around dif- its energy resilience and adaptive capacity. The ferent versions of the paper. Additional guidance was authors carried out the analyses and wrote the paper provided by officials from the GoB including Colin during the preparation of the Energy Resilience for Young (former CEO of Ministry of Energy, Science & Climate Adaptation Project (ERCAP), which is an ini- Technology and Public Utilities (MESTPU)), Ambrose tiative by the Government of Belize (GoB) that is Tillett (Director for Energy), and Ansel Dubon (Project being supported by the World Bank with funding Coordinator). Noureddine Berrah (Energy Advisor from the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) of Consultant) and Chrisantha Ratnayake (Senior Power the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The ERCAP Engineer Consultant) from the World Bank shared is designed to assist the GoB undertake demonstra- extensive insights in shaping the analyses. Xiaoping tive measures and targeted pilot investments that Wang (Senior Energy Specialist) and Pierre Audinet would enhance energy resilience in the country, and (Senior Energy Economist) from the Energy Sector could subsequently be mainstreamed and scaled-up Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), and for greater impact. Rawleston Moore from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), also provided input that is reflected The paper primarily relies on information provided in the document. Maite Lasa and Hua Du made by the Belize Electricity Limited (BEL), the national important contributions during the preparation of power company in Belize. The authors wish to the paper. acknowledge the collaboration of BEL and a num- ber of its officials in providing input to the paper. The paper also benefited from the financial support In particular, invaluable insights were provided by of the World Bank’s ESMAP and the GEF, for which Ernesto Gomez (Senior Manager, Energy & Material the authors are grateful. While many people pro- Supply), Jose Moreno (Senior Manager, Transmission vided valuable information and guidance, it is noted & Distribution, Safety & Environment), Derek Davies that the findings, interpretations, and conclusions (Senior Manager, System Planning & Engineering), expressed in this paper are entirely those of the Rolando Santos (former Senior Manager, System authors and should not be attributed in any manner Planning & Engineering), Kevin Longsworth to the World Bank Group, to members of its board (Manager, Control Centre), Herschel Armstrong of executive directors or the countries they repre- (Senior Engineer- System Planning, Engineering sent, BEL or the Government of Belize. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Belize is an upper middle-income country that is • Tropical storms, such as Alex in 2010, are more located in the Caribbean Sea, making the country common and frequently impact Belize. Tropical vulnerable to extreme weather and natural hazards. Storm Alex had wind gusts ranging from 40 to As global temperatures rise due to climate change, 63 miles per hour and brought with it heavy these extreme weather patterns are expected to precipitation. It caused a number of damages intensify, increasing the risks. to the distribution system that cut off custom- ers depressing demand by about 10 percent. Over the last century and half, there have been 57 While tropical storms typically don’t cause hurricanes and tropical storms that have impacted damages at the scale of more intense hur- Belize. This is in addition to the tropical monsoons ricanes, they disrupt electricity services with routinely faced by the country. Models predict that greater frequency. there will be an increase in intensity of such storms in the Caribbean due to climate change. The impact of extreme weather events on the power system leads to several types of financial/economic The power system in Belize is particularly vulnerable effects. They include the cost of repairing and to extreme weather and climatic risks. This report rebuilding damaged electricity infrastructure, lost presents an analysis carried out by the World Bank revenue to the utility due to the resulting electric- working with Belize Electricity Limited (BEL), which ity service disruptions, and the greater impact on reviewed two past hurricanes and a tropical storm, and broader economic activity because of the unserved evaluated its impacts on electricity supply. It considers energy. The infrastructure damage from hurricanes the damages to infrastructure, revenue losses to the Dean and Richard were as much as half a million US power company due to disruptions in service, and the dollars, which is significant for a utility the size of BEL. overall economic impact of the unserved energy. The wide-ranging outages resulted in revenue losses that exceeded a quarter million US dollars. However, • Hurricane Dean, which struck Belize in 2007 was the economic impact resulting from the value-added a fast moving storm with strong winds reaching losses in GDP from the unserved energy is much 165 miles per hour causing significant damages higher, estimated to be as much as US$3–US$5 along its path. The hurricane caused a near million for each hurricane. In comparison, the GDP country-wide electricity blackout, and it took impact from Tropical Storm Alex was over US$300K. nearly a week before service was fully restored. The overall loss assessment due to Hurricanes Dean • Hurricane Richard, which made landfall in and Richard on the broader economy beyond the 2010, was a large storm that covered a wide power sector impacts were estimated at over US$80 swathe of the country with heavy precipitation. million and US$35 million respectively. It had sustained winds of 90 miles per hour. The resulting damages to the transmission Addressing the vulnerabilities to extreme weather and distribution lines significantly reduced and climatic impacts is an economic imperative for BEL’s ability to dispatch its main hydropower Belize, and will require enhancing the resilience of stations that make up half the domestic installed the power sector. This implies strengthening the capacity. The disruption in electricity supply existing infrastructure and operational capabilities to affected over 35,000 customers (over 45% minimize damages and disruptions during extreme percent of BEL’s total customer base). weather events; and improving the capacity in the The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize xi country to respond rapidly to and recover efficiently damaging transmission lines. Vegetation related from the residual damages that would still occur. damages are a common occurrence that impact the distribution system during storms as well. Analyzing the sequence of events that led to some • While the impacts on the transmission lines were of the significant damages and service disrup- significant during the storms evaluated, a majority tions experienced during Tropical Storm Alex and of the damages from extreme weather impact Hurricanes Dean and Richard provides insights into the distribution systems causing services to be some of the specific vulnerabilities in the power disrupted. In fact, during Hurricanes Dean and system. Several such illustrations are presented in Richard, about 90 percent of the recorded faults this paper. These illustrations highlight the need to were in the distribution system. In Tropical Storm address several key vulnerabilities given past expe- Alex, all faults were in the distribution system. rience as well as potential events that have been Distribution damages were primarily due to fallen avoided previously but could materialize in the near branches, downed poles, and tangled wires. future. • Improving the speed and quality of response to emergency situations and efficient and effective • BEL’s single backbone, radial transmission sys- recovery is essential for operating a resilient tem needs to be adequately segmented in power system. At present, BEL has a Hurricane order to contain faults and prevent cascading Preparedness Plan, but its restoration work outages – something that occurred during both following storms is done in a more ad-hoc basis. Hurricanes Dean and Richard causing major ser- Its response during emergencies is also hampered vice disruptions. due to an outdated communication system, • There is a considerable need to strengthen the inadequate access to damaged infrastructure, transmission structures and lines, especially and limitations in systems operation capabilities. sections where there is substantial weakening of wooden structures and corrosion in metal The World Bank, with funding from the Global fittings. While a catastrophic collapse of the Environment Facility’s (GEF’s) Special Climate transmission lines have been prevented thus Change Fund (SCCF), is helping Belize enhance the far due to an aggressive maintenance program resilience of its power system. The analysis presented conducted by BEL, progressive weakening of in this report, along with engineering reviews and the lines poses a high risk of a major “down- discussions with BEL and the government, helped ing “ that would lead to significant outages and identify and validate some of the key resilience service disruptions. enhancing measures that will be included in the • Several of the faults during Hurricanes Dean Energy Resilience for Climate Adaptation Project and Richard were caused by trees falling and (ERCAP). xii The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize xiii 1. BELIZE AT HIGH RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change poses considerable risks for the for the country are also susceptible to disruption Caribbean region, and Belize is particularly vul- since most are located in the coastal areas along nerable. Belize is an upper middle income country the Caribbean Sea. In 1961, Hurricane Hattie, which with a population of about 350,000 people and an caused significant damages in Belize City, then the approximate GDP of $4,600 per person . Adjacent capital city of the country, resulted in costs that to Mexico and Guatemala, its location exposes the were estimated at 600 percent of GDP, and killed country to the Caribbean Sea, making Belize prone to 400 people.1 More recently, in 2000, Hurricane Keith extreme weather and natural hazards. As global tem- caused damage exceeding 45 percent of GDP; and peratures rise due to climate change, these extreme in 2001, during Hurricane Iris, storm surges sub- weather patterns are expected to intensify, progres- merged Belize City causing damages estimated at sively exposing Belize to greater climate risks. Along 25 percent of GDP.2 Tropical Storm Arthur in 2008 the coastal areas, this could be in the form of rising also caused extensive damage to critical infrastruc- sea levels, increased intensity of tropical storms and ture as well as the agriculture sector.3 Since 2000, hurricanes, more damaging floodings, rapid shoreline no less than thirteen tropical storms and hurricanes erosion, and saltwater intrusion. Climatic influences landed in Belize (see Figure 1), and the frequency also affect the entire country beyond coastal areas, and intensity of such extreme weather events are where fluctuations in rainfall, for instance, can under- likely to increase due to the impacts of climate mine agricultural production and impact the reliability change. This will further increase vulnerabilities as of hydroelectric generation. it stands to threaten lives as well as livelihoods in the country, preventing sustainable development. Exposure to extreme weather, especially pow- Considering that a significant portion of the popu- erful hurricanes and tropical storms, highlights lation is poor or susceptible to falling into poverty, these vulnerabilities, as it has led to major set- climate change impacts are sure to test the resil- backs in economic development and efforts to ience of Belize in the future. alleviate poverty. A significant number of hurri- canes and tropical storms that traverse across the Such vulnerabilities have led the United Nations to Caribbean make landfall in Belize before dissipating. identify Belize as one of the most susceptible coun- Such storms are often accompanied by high winds tries in the world to climate change. that can damage infrastructure, significant precipita- tions that lead to flood damage, or a combination of both. Belize City, where a majority of the population 1 EM-DAT International Disaster Database, Centre for Research resides, is a coastal town that is particularly vulner- on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) able to high storm surges and inundation. The major 2 World Bank, Country Partnership Strategy for Belize, July 2011 tourist areas that generate considerable revenue 3 Ibid. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 1 FIGURE 1. Trajectory of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms making Landfall in Belize (Years 2000–15) Ernesto (2012) Dean (200 7) Karl (20 10) Chanta l (2001 ) Keith (2000) Alex (201 0) Richard (2 010) Harv ey (2 011) Iris (2001) Barr y (20 13) Storm Category: H5 H4 H3 H2 H1 TS/SS TD/SD Wind speeds: >156 mph 131–155 mph 111–130 mph 96–110 mph 74–95 mph 39–73 mph <39 mph Source: United States National Hurricane Center. 2 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 2. INCREASED RESILIENCE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL The resilience of infrastructure to extreme that would increase the resiliency of the country’s weather and climate risks, including in the infrastructure. The Energy Resilience for Climate energy sector, is critical for sustainable develop- Adaptation Project (ERCAP) is part of the efforts ment. Adequate infrastructure services are essential that the World Bank is undertaking to support the for facilitating economic growth, in particular, to country. The ERCAP will provide grant funds from support key service sectors such as tourism and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) of the agriculture that drive the development in Belize’s Global Environment Facility (GEF) to assist the GoB economy. The country’s high debt levels and fiscal in undertaking demonstrative measures and tar- challenges in recent years have made it difficult to geted pilot investments that would enhance energy adequately invest in the construction and mainte- resilience and can subsequently be mainstreamed nance of roads, energy and water infrastructure. and scaled-up for greater impact. As a result, infrastructure resilience would be reduced without adequate adaptation measures The remainder of this paper focuses on vulnerabili- to cope with future climate related risks. This has ties of the power sector infrastructure in Belize to particular significance in the energy sector, espe- extreme weather. More specifically, it will evaluate cially electricity infrastructure, which is oftentimes the impacts of two recent hurricanes and a tropi- severely affected by hurricanes and tropical storms. cal storm, on the electricity infrastructure and the Therefore, appropriate investments are needed in disruptions in services that resulted. The paper then order to ensure sustained power supply through identifies specific areas of vulnerability in the power resilient transmission and distribution infrastructure. system in Belize, and potential solutions to address The Government of Belize (GoB) has recognized them. The analysis in the paper is carried out as a such vulnerabilities, and sought the support of a part of the preparation of the ERCAP; and contrib- number of development partners, including the uted to the selection of initial pilot activities and World Bank, to identify and support investments investments that will be funded by the project. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 3 3. THE POWER SYSTEM IN BELIZE The failure of the energy system can have sig- percent from diesel and fuel oil. The remaining 42 nificant economic ramifications and lead to percent were imported from CFE. While the elec- important damages. The total installed power tricity supply arrangement with Mexico provides generation capacity in Belize is 110 MW, with addi- a reliable source, the Government of Belize (GoB) tional capacity of up to 50 MW of imports available would like to utilize more domestic sources for through a contractual arrangement with Mexico’s power generation in order to enhance the country’s power utility, Comisión Federal de Electricidad energy security. While hydropower is an indigenous (CFE). Peak demand is around 86 MW,4 with demand resource, droughts and changing rainfall patterns growing at approximately five percent per annum. that are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, Electricity is supplied through a domestic power have raised reliability concerns about the dominance generation mix that is comprised of hydropower of the technology going forward. The concerns were (50 percent), diesel and fuel oil (38 percent), and partly allayed through the introduction in 2009 of biomass (12 percent), in addition to imports from 13.5 MW of generation capacity fired by sugar cane Mexico. Belize Electricity Limited (BEL), the national bagasse (biomass). The complementarity of hydro- power company, directly owns and operates 26 power and bagasse, due to its offsetting seasonality, MW of diesel-based generation,5 while it purchases enhances the resilience of the overall power system the remainder from independent power producers and improves the generation mix. Since most of the (IPPs) and Mexico’s CFE. The electricity generated domestically in 2015 accounted for 58 percent of 4 Energy Report 2014, Government of Belize the total electricity consumption: nearly 39 percent 5 includes BEL’s 22.5 MW gas turbine (GT) power plant that was from hydropower, 14 percent from biomass, 5 operates utilizing diesel. FIGURE 2. Net Power Generation in Belize 700 600 500 400 GWh 300 200 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Diesel BAL/BAPCOL Belcogen CFE Hydro Maya Hydro Vaca Hydro Mollejon Hydro Chalillo Source: Belize Electricity Limited. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 5 FIGURE 3. Diagram of the Generation and Transmission System in Belize (2016) CFE From CFE CFZ (up to 50 MW) Corozal LEGEND San Pedrito 115 kV Transmission line 69 kV Transmission line Buena Vista 34.5 kV Submarine cable 34.5 kV Transmission line Orange Walk 22 kV line Bagasse BELCOGEN BELCOGEN CFE supply (13.5 MW) Maskall San Pedro Existing substation Hydroelectric plant Caye Diesel BEL Caulker (4 MW) Main Diesel power station Standby Diesel power station Ladyville Belize City 34.5 kV Transmission line La Democracia Gas Turbine – BEL West Lake (22.5 MW) Camalote 115 kV Transmission line Mullins River San Ignacio Belmopan Dangriga Vaca Mollejon Hydro BECOL Chalillo (51.5 MW) 69 kV Transmission line BAPCOL Savannah HFO –BAPCOL (15 MW) Independence Hydro Maya Hydro MAYA 22 kV line (3.4 MW) Punta Gorda Source: Belize Electricity Limited. sugar cane bagasse produced in Belize is already south sections, a 34.5 kV in the northern section, utilized, options for alternative crops suitable as a and a 34.5 kV under-sea link to the San Pedro island fuel for power generation are being considered. from the Maskall substation.6 The transmission link with Mexico is a 115 kV line with a rated capacity of The electricity in Belize is transported through a 65 MW. The single circuit radial transmission net- single circuit transmission network that extends work is also an important reliability concern. If one about 400 miles across the country, feeding vari- section is affected by faults or weather damages, the ous distribution systems. As illustrated in Figure 3, integrity of the whole network can be compromised, the transmission system includes different voltage levels: 115 kV in the northern, central and western 6 In addition, the Maya hydropower plant is connected through sections of the country, 69.5 kV in the central and a 22 kV line to the transmission network. 6 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize as power from available generation units and/ The electricity system in Belize also includes dis- or CFE cannot be transmitted to consumers. BEL tribution networks operating at 22 kV, 11 kV and would then be forced to cut off load at some of 6.6 kV in various towns throughout the country. the load centers and/or operate its diesel-based They mostly operate without stress although some of power plants at sizable costs. Another major con- the 22 kV lines are excessively long feeding distant cern with the transmission network arises from the areas and leading to low voltages. Areas of concern progressively reduced structural strength of several with regards to system vulnerability are: a) single sections of wooden poles due to corrosion degra- supply substation with one step-down transformer to dation of laminated cross-arms in water logged and medium voltage supplying each city; and b) the dis- saline areas, wood decay, threats of bush fires and tribution systems of the largest city (Belize City) and damage caused by woodpeckers. While BEL has the capital city (Belmopan) are still primarily oper- not had any major transmission disruptions due to ated at respectively 6.6 kV and 11 kV networks 7. If downed poles, the progressive weakening of parts these issues are not adequately addressed, damages of the system poses a considerable risk that could to the substations or sections of the transmission lead to major outages, especially during hurricanes and/or the distribution networks during a hurricane with high winds. To address these challenges, BEL is could lead to widespread and prolonged outages. undertaking an aggressive maintenance plan replac- ing poles where necessary in its transmission and 7 The newly developed 22 kV lines are mostly feeding the pe- distribution systems. ripheral areas and not the central, inner cities. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 7 4. VULNERABILITIES OF THE POWER SECTOR TO EXTREME WEATHER Belize’s power sector is already vulnerable to overall cyclone activity in the Caribbean and wider extreme weather events that are expected to be North Atlantic Basin has shown a dramatic increase more intense and frequent due to climate change. since 1995. While attribution of these weather pat- The transmission and distribution system already terns to climate change is still under debate, both sustain considerable damage during hurricanes and frequency and duration of Atlantic hurricanes dis- tropical storms. Without further strengthening and played statistically significant increasing trends and implementing response and recovery measures, there has been a sustained increase in the proportion the situation will worsen. Based on available data of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the recent periods.9 tracked since 1864, Belize experienced 21 hurricanes of which about a quarter were rated either category Evaluating past storm damage provides an indica- 4 or 5 with wind speeds in excess of 130 miles per tion of the vulnerabilities and impacts that may hour, 27 tropical storms and 9 tropical depressions8 become even more severe in the future. Based on (see Figure 4). The table in the following figure 5 pro- data gathered and documented by BEL during two vides the main characteristics of the thirteen extreme past hurricanes and a tropical storm, the remainder of weather events that impacted Belize more recently Chapter 4 attempts to identify the critical events that since 2000. It does not include less severe storms and affected the power system, and evaluate the result- monsoon rains that occur yearly, which also impact ing impact on generation capacity and transmission the power system and progressively make it more and distribution failures that led to supply disrup- vulnerable. A particular concern going forward is that tion (shortfall and duration) in electricity services. future impacts could be much more frequent as the Estimating the economic costs resulting from the disruption in services and impact on end-users will provide a proxy for the development setbacks that arise from extreme weather events due to the vulner- FIGURE 4. Number of Hurricanes and Storms abilities that exists in the power system in Belize. by Category (since 1864) 30 25 Tropical Storm Alex 20 Tropical Storm Alex struck Belize with heavy rain- Number 15 fall. Alex made landfall in Belize City around 6:00 p.m. (2400 UT) 10 on June 26, 2010. All clear was 10 declared by the Government of Belize (GoB) at 7:30 5 am (1330 UT) on the following day indicating that 0 H5 H4 H3 H2 H1 TS TD 8 Storm Category National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, United States Department of Commerce. Source: Authors based on data from the National Oceanic 9 Webster et al, “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Dura- & Atmospheric Administration, United States Department tion, and Intensity in a Warming Environment”, 2005. of Commerce. 10 Universal Time. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 9 FIGURE 5. Summary Table of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms that Impacted Belize (from 2000–14) Hurricane Max Wind No Name Year (mph) Hurricane Category* Districts along Storm Trajectory Landfall All Clear** 1 Keith 2000 138 H4 Belize, Orange Walk 9/30/00 10/04/00 2 Iris 2001 144 H4 Toledo 10/08/01 10/09/01 3 Chantal 2001 69 Tropical Storm San Pedro, Corozal 08/21/01 08/21/01 4 Dean 2007 190 H5 Corozal (near southern Mexico) 08/21/07 08/21/07 5 Felix 2007 23 Tropical Depression Toledo 09/04/07 09/04/07 6 Arthur 2008 46 Tropical Storm Belize, Orange Walk 05/31/08 06/02/08 7 Alex 2010 63 Tropical Storm Belize, Orange Walk 06/26/10 06/27/10 8 Karl 2010 63 Tropical Storm Corozal (near southern Mexico) 09/15/10 09/16/10 9 Matthew 2010 40 Tropical Storm Stan Creek, Toledo, Cayo 09/25/10 09/25/10 10 Richard 2010 98 H2 Belize, Cayo, Orange Walk 10/24/10 10/25/10 11 Harvey 2011 63 Tropical Storm Stan Creek, Cayo 08/20/10 08/20/10 12 Ernesto 2012 98 H2 Corozal (near southern Mexico) 08/07/12 08/08/12 13 Barry 2013 35 Tropical Depression Stan Creek, Toledo, Cayo 06/17/13 06/18/13 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Department of Commerce. *Category: based on the Saffir-Simpson scale. ** All Clear: National Emergency Management Organization declares “All Clear” when hurricane has passed and there is no substantial risk. the danger from the storm had passed. As with many of the country experienced heavy rains as a result storms that impact Belize, Alex took a northern turn of Alex. For example, near the Pine Ridge Mountain as it moved west towards Mexico with wind gusts measuring 40–63 mph. Within Belize, it impacted the 11 “Situation Report, Tropical Storm Alex Impacts Belize”, the Ca- districts of Belize, Orange Walk, and Corozal.11 Most ribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA). FIGURE 6. Impact of Tropical Storm Alex on Hourly Dispatched Electricity Generation 70,000 60,000 Alex Landfall 18:00 kWh 50,000 40,000 30,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Main events (June 26) San Pedro District – Distribution line Orange Walk District – Distribution line 18:51 – Feeder 2 tripped affecting 1,340 customers for 4–9 hours 23:01 – Feeder 4 tripped affecting 646 customers for less than 9 hours. 19:14 – Feeder 4 tripped affecting 328 customers for less than 5 hours Belize District – Distribution line 20:28 – Feeder 1 tripped affecting 540 customers for less than 2 hours Source: Belize Electricity Limited. 10 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 7. Location and Impact of Tropical Storm Alex on Power System CFE # Events: 3 Customers affected: 2,314 Affected Load: 3.2 MW Distribution: 3.2 MW LEGEND Hydroelectric plant Corozal Main Diesel power station Standby Diesel power station BELCOGEN San Pedro CFE supply Belcogen (Bagasse) Caye Orange Walk Caulker Belize Represents Location of Events # Events: 1 Customers affected: 540 West Lake Affected Load: 1.4 MW Distribution: 1.4 MW Cayo Vaca Mollejon Chalillo Stan Creek BAPCOL Hydro Maya Toledo Source: Belize Electricity Limited. close to where most of the hydropower in the country center. As seen in Figure 6 , there was a steady is generated, 180 millimeters (mm) of rain was mea- increase in load towards the normal evening peak sured on the day Alex made landfall exceeding the as Alex made landfall. However, the storm caused average rainfall for the entire month of June, which is several distribution faults that led to outages cut- 123 mm.12 As a result, the Macal, Mopan, and Belize ting off nearly 3,000 customers, some as long as Rivers were forced to flood.13 nine hours. As a result, the evening demand was depressed by about 15% compared with the previ- Alex’s impact on the power system was not wide- ous week. As illustrated in Figure 7, the first faults spread, but electricity dispatch was reduced as a result of distribution system faults. While the 12 “Tropical Storm Alex the first named storm of the 2010 At- transmission system did not sustain significant lantic Hurricane Season”, Technical, National Meteorological damages due to Alex, the distribution system Service (NMS), Belize, 2010. experienced four faults recorded by BEL’s dispatch 13 Ibid. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 11 FIGURE 8. Daily Electricity Generation by Power Plant during Tropical Storm Alex 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1200,000 100,0000 kWh 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 19-Jun 20-Jun 21-Jun 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun 25-Jun 26-Jun 27-Jun 28-Jun 29-Jun 30-Jun 1-Jul 2-Jul 3-Jul Day Diesel GT BAL/BAPCOL Belcogen CFE Hydro Maya Hydro Vaca Hydro Mollejon Hydro Chalillo Source: Belize Electricity Limited. were reported in the island of San Pedro, followed and 27th (the day of landfall and the following day) by others in the districts of Belize and Orange Walk. compared with the same days during the previous Primary causes of the faults were tripped feeders week (June 19 th and 20 th). This decrease can be and damaged distribution poles resulting in out- attributed to the reduction in load as due to ser- ages that ranged from 2 to 9 hours. vice interruptions as well as consumers curtailing activities (i.e. closure of stores and firms) as a result Power outages during Tropical Storm Alex of the storm. The suppressed demand lasted for reduced weekly electricity consumption by about 22 hours. nearly 10 percent, compared to a week ear- lier. Figure 8 shows about 10 percent decreases As demand recovered the day after Alex’s landfall, in total daily electricity generation on June 26th BEL supplanted power generated from biomass FIGURE 9. Dispatch Comparison during Tropical Storm Alex and Business-As-Usual Scenario 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 kWh 1,300,000 1,200,000 Dispatch during the previous week that reflects Dispatch during the week when Tropical Storm Alex made business-as-usual in the absence of storm 1,100,000 landfall in Belize (June 26–July 2) damage (June 19–25) 1,000,000 Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Day Source: Belize Electricity Limited. 12 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize and electricity imports due to increased availability Hurricane Dean of hydro as a result of the storm. Figure 8 shows that the daily generation by the major power plants Dean was a Category 5 hurricane with high- of the system during the week before and after Alex’s speed winds but with minor rainfall. Hurricane landfall. The storm related faults during the evening Dean landed along the Yucatan Peninsula near the of June 26th resulted in a decrease in demand, which town of Mahahual on Mexico’s Caribbean Coast, led BEL to reduce dispatch from CFE and suspend about 50 miles northeast of Corozal Town in north- dispatch from Belcogen although both generation ern Belize on August 21, 2007 at 1:45 a.m. (0745 sources remained operational: (a) Belcogen’s gen- UT). The GoB declared “all clear” at 1:00 p.m (1900 eration fell from 355,404 kWh on June 25th, the day UT) on the same day. Dean was a fast moving cat- before the landfall, to 179,714 kWh on June 26 th, egory 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds the day of the landfall, and was reduced to zero on of about 165 miles per hour. Due to the rapid west- June 27th, the day following landfall. Belcogen’s gen- ward motion of Hurricane Dean, the accumulated eration levels remained noticeably reduced until June rainfall over northern Belize was not as significant 30th before dispatch began to increase; and (b) CFE as forecasted. imports from Mexico fell from 366,680 kWh on June 25th, the day before the landfall, to 175,410 kWh on Instantaneous and significant impacts brought the June 26th, the day of the landfall, then to 41,560 kWh power system to almost a total blackout. Dean’s on June 27th, the day after the landfall. CFE imports impacts on the power sector have been reviewed peaked again when it reached 413,950 kWh on June and quantified based on BEL’s internal reports, which 30th. As the hydro levels topped off the reservoirs dur- record all the events affecting supply and dispatch of ing Tropical Storm Alex, BEL continued to utilize more power during the operation of the system. Figure 10 than 1,000,000 kWh of hydropower each day for at shows that the system began experiencing problem least an additional week since it would have been the about two hours prior to Hurricane Dean’s landfall least cost option based on the merit order of dispatch. as distribution lines failed to sustain the high-speed winds. In the first six hours of the manifestation of The estimated loss of revenue incurred by BEL Dean (and about four hours after its landfall), the dis- amounted to over BZ$ 100,000 (US$ 50,000). patched energy decreased by more than half (from Figure 9 shows the daily energy generation during about 41,717 kWh to about 16,224 kWh) mainly due the week of Alex’s landfall and the preceding week. to the failure of distribution lines. The system began The unserved energy due to Alex is estimated as the to recover, but soon the failure of a transmission line difference between the energy dispatched during brought the system to an almost total blackout. June 26th and July 2nd, the week of Alex’s landfall, and the energy dispatched during the previous Most of the problems in the power system dur- week of June 19th and 25th that was unaffected by ing Hurricane Dean were located in the northern the storm. The unserved energy during this period region, in the vicinity of where it made landfall. amounted to 115,913 kWh, resulting in an estimated Figure 11 shows that most of the documented BZ$ 51,81314 (US$ 25,907)15 of lost revenue for the events by BEL’s dispatch center (10 out of 13) utility, based on BEL’s 2010 average sales price of were located in the northern region of the country, BZ¢ 45/kWh16 (US¢ 22/kWh). 14 BZ$ 0.447/kWh (average 2010 sales price/kWh rounded up The impact of the unserved energy on GDP is to three decimals) * 115,913 kWh; 15 estimated at about BZ$ 670,000 (US$ 335,000). the exchange rate used in this paper for 2007 and 2010 is BZ$ 2 = US$ 1, based on the World Bank Development Indi- Belize’s 2010 nominal GDP was BZ$ 2,794,226,900 cators for official exchange rates. (US$ 1,397,113,450)17 and BEL’s total net generation 16 BZ$ 190,526,000 (BEL’s 2010 annual revenue) / 426,233,000 of electricity was 483,270,087 kWh indicating that kWh (BEL’s 2010 total sales in kWh). 17 the value added to GDP per kWh is BZ$ 5.78 (US$ World Bank Development Indicators, GDP (current US$). 18 US$ 1,397,113,450 (Belize’s 2010 nominal GDP) / 483,270,087 2.89).18 On this basis, the loss of GDP value-added kWh (BEL’s 2010 total net electricity generation) to Belize as a result of unserved energy due to Alex 19 US$ 2.89/kWh (GDP value-added per kWh, rounded to two is estimated at BZ$ 670,199 (US$ 335,100).19 decimals) * 115,913 kWh. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 13 FIGURE 10. Impact of Hurricane Dean on Hourly Dispatched Electricity Generation 45,000 Dean landfall 1:45 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 kWh 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Main events (August 21st) San Pedro District – Distribution line Orange Walk District – Distribution line 00:32 – Feeder 1 tripped affecting 870 customers for 23 hours 02:36 – Feeder 1 tripped affecting 450 customers for 19 hours 00:47 – Feeders 2, 3 & 4 tripped affecting 3,139 customers for 14 hours 02:50 – Feeder 4 tripped affecting 612 customers for 33 hours 03:35 – Feeders 2 & 3 tripped affecting 4,782 customers for 18 hours Corozal District – Distribution line 01:12 – Feeder 1 tripped affecting up to 3,277 customers for 4 to 6 days Cayo, Belize, Toledo and Stan Creek Districts – Transmission line 01:57 – Feeder 2 tripped affecting 2,063 customers for 4 days 06:23 – System outage in various districts affecting 49,525 02:12 – Feeders 3, 4 & 5 tripped affecting up to 5,426 customers for 4–6 days customers for 2–4 hours Source: Belize Electricity Limited. where the highest wind speeds were recorded and hydropower plants could not be dispatched due to where the electricity system is more vulnerable transmission and distribution failures. On August to extreme weather conditions due to the lack of 21st, the generation from the Chalillo hydropower segmentation. The rest of events were located in was reduced by 120,559 kWh (78 percent less from the Central (Belize and Ladyville systems), Western the previous week), and generation from Mollejon (Belmopan and San Ignacio systems) and Southern hydropower plant was reduced by 247,729 kWh (40 regions (Dangriga, Independence and Punta Gorda percent less than the previous week). systems). BEL fell back on diesel-fired units to minimize Hurricane Dean affected BEL’s daily generation the impact of the lost imports and hydropower mix, significantly increasing the cost of sup- generation. To compensate for the loss of imports ply. Figure 12 shows the daily generation by the and reduction of hydropower generation on August major power plants of the system during the week 21st and 22nd, BEL operated its diesel fired gas tur- before and the week after Hurricane Dean’s landfall. bine to generate 178,176 kWh and 272,384 kWh The total generated electricity on Tuesday August respectively and its diesel unit to generate 43,861 21st (day of landfall) was about 54 percent of the kWh and 63,518 kWh respectively. On August 23rd, previous and following Tuesdays’ generation. The imports increased to 775,610 kWh, a 42 percent shortfall of generated electricity was mainly due increase from the previous week before return- to: (a) the interruption of imports from Mexico as ing to average levels, as hydropower generation Hurricane Dean caused a supply cut by 96 percent, was dispatched to levels preceding the landfall of compared to the previous week’s supply. On August Hurricane Dean. 22nd, imports resumed but at a lower level as they amounted to about 42 percent of the imports com- The disruption was sudden but the recovery was pared with August 15th and about 54 percent of slow. Figure 13 presents the daily power generation the imports on the day before the landfall; and (b) showing the sudden disruption of the daily power the disruption of hydropower generation as the supply caused by Hurricane Dean and the slow recov- electricity generated by the Chalillo and Mollejon ery as the system did not reach the daily dispatched 14 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 11. Location and Impact of Hurricane Dean on Power System CFE # Events: 10 Customers affected: 17,487 Affected Load: 10.5 MW LEGEND Distribution: 10.5 MW Hydroelectric plant Main Diesel power station Corozal Standby Diesel power station San Pedro CFE supply Represents Location of Events Caye Orange Walk Caulker Belize # Events: 3* Customers affected: 23,332 West Lake Affected Load: 18.8 MW Distribution: 4.2 MW Transmission: 14.6 MW Cayo # Events: 1* Mollejon Chalillo Customers affected: 15,060 Stan Creek Affected Load: 8.8 MW Transmission: 8.8 MW Toledo # Events: 1* Customers affected: 11,133 Affected Load: 6.5 MW Transmission: 6.5 MW * 1 transmission event occurred across Central, Western, Southern regions Source: Belize Electricity Limited. electricity level until August 27th, 6 days after the hur- decided on August 21st to impose a nighttime cur- ricane reached landfall. In the San Pedro area, BEL few from 8:00 pm (August 21st) until 6:00 am (August pointed out that it took them 24 hours to solve the 22nd). On August 22nd, the Corozal district was still on problems with the feeders and 4 to 6 days to restore a blackout and power was restored to only 50 per- power supply in the severely affected Corozal area. cent of customers in Corozal town by August 24th. However, restoration of supply was not fully achieved The north of Orange Walk district was also affected in the San Pedro area as the local news reported20 by failures of feeders and suffered blackouts. It took that by August 24 th there were still few customers 33 hours to fully restore electricity supply. on the north side of the island without electricity. The situation in the Corozal and Orange Walk dis- tricts imposed more drastic measures as the National 20 Great Belize Television/Channel 5, “B.E.L. reports progress in Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) restoring power”, August 24, 2007. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 15 FIGURE 12. Daily Electricity Generation by Power Plant during Hurricane Dean 1,600,000 1,400,000 1200,000 100,0000 kWh 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug 20-Aug 21-Aug 22-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug 26-Aug Day Diesel GT CFE Hydro Maya Hydro Mollejon Hydro Chalillo Source: Belize Electricity Limited. Most of BEL’s reported events were related with 6:23 am on August 21st, failures of the transmission distribution system failures and led to significant lines in the Western, Central and Southern systems amounts of un-served energy. Twelve out of the affected all the feeders. The power outages lasted reported 13 events were related to distribution from 2 to 4 hours and affected 49,525 customers, system failures. The failures in the Northern region about 68 percent of BEL’s customer base. (Corozal, Orange Walk and San Pedro systems) were the most acute, with 17,487 customers identified as The estimated loss of revenue incurred by BEL being affected (24 percent of total BEL’s customer amounted to nearly BZ $700,000 (US$ 350,000). base). The Corozal system was the most affected of The estimated un-served energy due to Hurricane the three regions with an estimated 7,634 customers Dean can be estimated as the difference between losing power. It took 4 to 6 days to fully repair the the energy dispatched from the 13th to 19th of August Northern system. (the week preceding Dean when there would have been a more normal consumption pattern) and the Transmission failures were fewer and shorter but energy dispatched from August 20th to 26th of August they impacted higher numbers of customers. At when the hurricane was impacting Belize. Figure 14 FIGURE 13. Daily Dispatched Electricity as Hurricane Dean made landfall 1,600,000 1,400,000 Dean Landfall 1200,000 kWh 100,0000 800,000 600,000 400,000 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug 20-Aug 21-Aug 22-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug 26-Aug 27-Aug 28-Aug Source: Belize Electricity Limited. 16 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 14. Dispatch Comparison during Hurricane Dean and Business-As-Usual Scenario 1,500,000 dispatch during the previous week that 1,400,000 reflects business-as-usual in the absence of storm damage (August 13–19) 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 kWh 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 dispatch during the week when Hurricane Dean 700,000 made landfall in Belize (August 20–26) 600,000 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Day Source: Belize Electricity Limited. shows the energy dispatched during these two assessment of the damage and losses caused by weeks. The estimated un-served energy as a result of hurricane Dean”, published December 17, 2007, Hurricane Dean amounted to 1,624,100 kWh valued estimated the total impact of the hurricane (dam- at the 2007 BEL’s average sale price of BZ¢ 42/kWh21 ages & losses) to the economy at BZ $179 million (US¢ 21/kWh). BEL’s loss of revenue is estimated at (US$ 90 million), about 7% of GDP. Damages to BZ$ 678,97922 (US$ 339,490). assets and stocks represented 53% of the total while losses accounted for the remaining 47%. An initial macro assessment of the damages due to Hurricane Dean indicated that the broader GDP losses resulting from unserved energy is closer to Hurricane Richard BZ$ 10 million (US$ 5 million). In 2007, Belize’s nominal GDP amounted to BZ$ 2,581,085,100 Richard was a hurricane with strong winds and (US$ 1,290,542,550) 23 and BEL’s total net genera- heavy rainfall. Hurricane Richard made landfall on tion of electricity was 438,708,589 kWh, indicating October 24, 2010, 20 miles south of Belize City, at that a kWh consumed generated added BZ$ 5.88 approximately 5:00 p.m. (2300 UT) and followed (US$  2.94) 24 value to the GDP. On this basis, the a westerly track through Belize and Cayo districts lost value added to GDP during Hurricane Dean before crossing to Guatemala. The “all clear” was due to power outages is therefore estimated at BZ$ declared by the GoB at 6:30 a.m. (1230 UT) on 9,555,182 (US$ 4,777,591).25 the following day. Richard was a Category 2 hurri- cane with sustained winds of 90 miles per hour and Economic losses are well beyond the dam- recorded gusts of 115 miles per hour. Much of the ages incurred by BEL and the power system. The preliminary Damage Assessment and Needs Analysis (DANA) report issued by the Public Utilities 21 BZ$ 159,600,000 (BEL’s 2007 annual revenue) / 381,759,000 Commission, estimated the damages to the BEL at kWh (BEL’s 2007 total sales in kWh). BZ$1 million (US$ 0.5 million). They are in line with 22 BZ$ 0.418/kWh (average 2007 sales price/kWh rounded up the damages reported in BEL’s 2007 annual report. to three decimals) * 1,624,100 kWh. 23 Additional detailed damage assessments were not World Bank Development Indicators, GDP (current US$). 24 US$ 1,290,542,550 (Belize’s 2007 nominal GDP) / 438,708,589 carried out by BEL or the GoB thereafter. However, kWh (BEL’s 2007 total net electricity generation). the Economic Commission for Latin America and 25 US$ 2.94/kWh (GDP value-added per kWh rounded to two the Caribbean (ECLAC) “Macro socio-economic decimals) * 1,624,100 kWh. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 17 FIGURE 15. Impact of Hurricane Richard on Hourly Dispatched Electricity Generation 60,000 50,000 Richard landfall 17:00 40,000 kWh 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Main events (October 24) Belize District – Distribution line: System restoration, HV lines, Stan Creek District affecting: Transmission lines 14:30 – 623 customers for 3 days 16:56 – fallen tree affecting 3,382 customers in Independence (1 day) 16:47 – 7,252 customers for 1–2 days 1,039 customers in Dangriga and Mullins systems (3–4 days) 16:52 –5,003 customers for 2 days Distribution line: System restoration, HV lines affecting: 17:03 – 8,061 customers for 1 day 19:41 – 1,697 customers for 1–2 days 17:13 – 540 customers for 3 days 20:55 – 2,539 customers during 1 day Toledo District –Transmission line Cayo District 16:56 – fallen tree affecting 3,492 customers in Punta Gorda Transmission lines for 1 day 19:23 – Fall of poles and tangling of wires affect 9,300 customers during 1–2 days in San Ignacio Distribution lines 19:23 – Feeder failures affecting 6,726 customers for 1–2 days Source: Belize Electricity Limited. damages associated with Hurricane Richard were country. The westerly track of the hurricane caused caused by the strong winds and heavy flooding that major blackouts in the central regions (Belize, Ladyville covered most of the country. and Mullins River systems) and the Western regions (Belmopan and San Ignacio systems). The remain- Hurricane Richard brought the power system ing 6 events were located in the Southern region to a near blackout in about 6 hours. Figure 15 (Dangriga, Independence and Punta Gorda systems). shows that the system began experiencing problems about two hours prior to the landfall of Richard due The damages in the power system persisted for to problems on high voltage (HV) lines around the several days following Richard’s landfall. Some Ladyville area in Belize district. As soon as the hur- of the documented events by BEL’s dispatch center ricane landed, a chain of events drastically reduced (9 of 17) occurred during the four days following the hourly generation from 40,095 kWh to about Richard’s landfall on October 24th. On October 25th, 13,494 kWh in just five hours. Most of the issues the Southern regions (Independence, Dangriga and were related with system restoration outages and Punta Gorda systems) suffered complete blackouts with problems in the distribution and transmission due to failures of distribution lines. On October 27th, lines caused by fallen trees, poles knocked down and the power in the Central region (Ladyville and West wires tangled as a consequence of high speed winds. Lake systems) was interrupted to repair a faulty HV line. Finally, on October 28th, a large area in Belize Richard affected mainly the central and western suffered power outages due to a faulty insulator regions through Belize and Cayo districts towards damaged by the Hurricane. Guatemala. As shown in Figure 16, most of the doc- umented events by BEL’s dispatch center (11 of 17) Hurricane Richard affected severely BEL’s hydro- were located in the central and western regions of the power generation, interrupting the dispatch from 18 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 16. Location and Impact of Hurricane Richard on Power System CFE LEGEND Hydroelectric plant Corozal Main Diesel power station Standby Diesel power station BELCOGEN San Pedro CFE supply Belcogen (Bagasse) Caye Orange Walk Caulker Belize Represents Location of Events # Events: 10 Customers affected: 14,486 West Lake Affected Load: 28.8 MW Distribution: 28.8 MW Cayo Vaca # Events: 1 Mollejon Chalillo Customers affected: 11,938 Stan Creek Affected Load: 8.4 MW Transmission: 8.4 MW BAPCOL Toledo # Events: 6 Hydro Customers affected: 10,091 Maya Affected Load: 24.0 MW Distribution: 19.8 MW Transmission: 4.2 MW Source: Belize Electricity Limited. FIGURE 17. Daily Electricity Generation by Power Plant during Hurricane Richard 1,600,000 1,400,000 1200,000 100,0000 kWh 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 17-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct 27-Oct 28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct Day Diesel BAL/BAPCOL GT Belcogen CFE Hydro Maya Hydro Vaca Hydro Mollejon Hydro Chalillo Source: Belize Electricity Limited. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 19 FIGURE 18. Daily Dispatched Electricity as Hurricane Richard made Landfall 1,600,000 Richard Landfall 1,400,000 1,200,000 kWh 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 17-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct 27-Oct 28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct Day Source: Belize Electricity Limited. all of the hydropower plants and impacting the generation from Belcogen and diesel engines. To daily generation mix. Figure 17 shows the daily compensate for the loss of hydropower generation generation by the major power plants of the system on October 24th and 25th, BEL increased the imports during the week before and the week after Richard’s from CFE until October 25th before the hydropower landfall. The total generated electricity on October generation was almost restored. On the 25 th of 24th and 25th when Hurricane Richard made its October, generation of Belcogen was increased to impact in Belize, were respectively 74 and 38 per- 114,371 kWh from 26,573 kWh of the previous day cent of the electricity generated during the previous to minimize the impact of hydropower generation week on October 17th and 18th. losses. On October 26th, 27th and 28th, BEL relied on diesel engines to meet local demand of electricity, The shortfall of generated electricity was mainly due generating as much as 19,191 kWh per day. to the system’s inability to dispatch hydropower. In comparison to the same day during the following week Like Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Richard’s disrup- on October 31 st, the day When the hurricane made tion was sudden and the recovery slow. Figure 18 landfall on October 24th, the electricity generated at presents the daily power generation showing the Hydro Chalillo was 39,514 kWh less (23 percent less), sudden disruption of power supply caused by at Hydro Mollejon was 136,325 kWh less (22 percent Richard and the slow recovery, as the system did not less), and at Hydro Vaca was 248,586 kWh less (76 per- reach the normal daily generation of electricity until cent less). The generation of all the hydropower plants October 27th. From 6 pm on October 24th until the were interrupted on October 24th; Hydro Vaca was fully same time on the following day, the generated elec- interrupted for 4 hours, Hydro Mollejon for 20 hours, tricity was half or less than the observed levels the Hydro Chalillo for 23 hours , and Hydro Maya for 26 week before, causing drastic reduction of supply in hours. The decrease in hydro generation was even Central, Western and Southern regions. The Central more severe on October 25 th; in comparison to the and Western regions were badly affected and BEL same day during the previous week on October 18th, pointed out that it took 1 to 3 days to restore gen- Hydro Chalillo’s generation was reduced by 149,282 eration and meet the demand. In the town of La kWh (81 percent), Hydro Mollejon’s was reduced by Democracia in Belize District, there was also a 427,762 kWh (78 percent) and Hydro Vaca’s generation blackout due to extensive damages on the western was reduced by 222,734 kWh (83 percent) . transmissions lines along the Western Highway up to the village of Blackman Eddy. Local media also BEL compensated the loss of hydropower gen- reported that the local village of Lords Bank in the eration by increasing imports from CFE, and same district was without electricity for up to 3 days 20 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 19. Dispatch Comparison during Hurricane Richard and Business-As-Usual Scenario dispatch during the previous week that reflects 1,600,000 business-as-usual in the absence of storm damage (October 17th–23rd) 1,400,000 1,200,000 kWh 1,000,000 800,000 dispatch during the week when Hurricane Richard 600,000 made landfall in Belize (October 24th–30th ) 400,000 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Source: Belize Electricity Limited. after the hurricane made landfall.26 In the Southern p.m., the high speed winds knocked down poles and region, many areas in the Stan Creek and Toledo caused wires to tangle creating serious damages districts were effected, but power was restored to along the Western Highway from La Democracia most areas one day after landfall. Media reports to the village of Blackman Eddy badly affecting the indicated that there were some exceptions in the Western region leaving 11,938 customers in the San towns of Middlesex, St. Margaret’s, Mullins River, Ignacio and Belmopan load centers without power. Dangriga and the Hummingbird Community—where restoration of service took longer. The distribution line experienced failures in the southern and central region even after the The distribution lines were the most affected by Hurricane left mainland Belize, affecting a sig- high-speed winds. There were numerous transmis- nificant number of customers. On October 25 th, sion and distribution damages that extended across there were some residual impacts from the hur- a large geographical area covering multiple districts ricane with distribution line failures affecting the reflecting the significant size of the hurricane. The Southern region beginning after 5:30 p.m. In the distribution line failures impacted 29,663 custom- Independence, Punta Gorda, and Dangriga systems, ers (about 39 percent of BEL’s total customer base) 9,088 customers (12 percent of BEL’s total customer while the transmission line failures impacted 13,726 base) were affected. In the Central region, distribu- customers (about 18 percent of BEL’s total cus- tion line failures that occurred from October 25th to tomer base). The main cause for the damages was 28th affected another 5,843 customers. the high-speed winds causing the collapse of poles (mainly distribution), tangling wires and knocking The estimated loss of revenue incurred by BEL down trees and antennas on high voltage lines. The due to Hurricane Richard amounted to nearly central region (Ladyville, West Lake, and the Belize BZ$ 500,000 (US$ 250,000). Figure 19 shows the City systems) was severely impacted by Hurricane daily energy generation during the week of Richard’s Richard affecting a total of 14,486 customers. landfall and the preceding week. The unserved energy due to Richard is estimated as the difference Transmission failures were fewer but impacted a between the energy dispatched from October 24th to large number of customers and led to a high load the 30th during the week of the hurricane compared loss. At 4:56 p.m. on October 24th, there were fail- ures in the western transmission line due to a fallen 26 Channel 7 News, “Progress with Power Restoration”, Octo- tree, which impacted over 8,000 customers. At 7:23 ber 27, 2010. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 21 with the energy dispatched from October 17th to the incurred by BEL and the power system. The Initial 23rd when the system was unaffected by the hurri- Damage Assessment Report (IDA) issued by the cane. The unserved energy amounted to 1,109,795 NEMO on October 27 th, 2010, BEL estimated ini- kWh resulting in an estimated BZ$ 496,07827 (US$ tially its losses/recovery costs as being BZ$ 250,000 248,039) of lost revenue for BEL, based on the BEL’s (US$ 125,000). The absence of electrical power also 2010 average sales price of BZ¢ 45/kWh28 (US¢ 22/ disrupted water systems in some rural communities kWh). as they did not have back up generation capabilities to sustain the operation of water pumps. The pre- The impact of the unserved energy on GDP is esti- liminary assessment estimated a total impact of the mated at about BZ$ 6.4 million (US$ 3.2 million). hurricane (direct losses + potential economic losses) Belize’s 2010 nominal GDP was BZ$ 2,794,226,900 on the economy at BZ$71 million (US$ 35 million), or (US$ 1,397,113,450) 29 and BEL’s total net genera- about 3 percent of GDP. tion of electricity was 483,270,087 kWh indicating that a kWh generated entails BZ$ 5.78 (US$ 2.89)30 27 BZ$ 0.447/kWh (average 2010 sales price/kWh rounded up of added value to the economy. On this basis, the to three decimals) * 1,109,795 kWh. total amount of un-served energy during Hurricane 28 BZ$ 190,526,000 (BEL’s 2010 annual revenue)/426,233,000 Richard was 1,109,795 kWh implying an estimated kWh (BEL’s 2010 total sales in kWh). 29 GDP loss of BZ$ 6,416,741 (US$ 3,208,371).31 World Bank Development Indicators, GDP (current US$). 30 US$ 1,397,113,450 (Belize’s 2010 nominal GDP) / 483,270,087 kWh (BEL’s 2010 total net electricity generation). The total economic losses in Belize due to 31 US$ 2.89/kWh (GDP value-added per kWh rounded up to Hurricane Richard are well beyond the damages two decimals) * 1,109,795 kWh. 22 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 5. BUILDING RESILIENCE FOR ENHANCED CLIMATE ADAPTATION The GoB is taking action to enhance climate resil- FIGURE 20. Framework for Energy Resilience ience in the country, including in the energy sector. and Climate Adaptation The previous analyses identified the vulnerabilities that extreme weather and climatic events pose for Integrated framework designed to enhance resilience of the power sector in Belize, and attempted to quan- energy system to adverse weather & climate change impacts tify the resulting economic and financial impacts. The Enhance System Rapid Response GoB recognizes that there are significant measures Resilience & Recovery that can be taken in order to enhance its resilience to extreme weather events and better adapt to climatic Planning & System Emergency Reconstruction impacts. Some of the steps GoB has already taken Operations Strengthening Response & Recovery in this regard include: (a) enactment of the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act (2003),32 which is Source: Authors, adapted from Ebinger and Vergara, “Climate Impacts on Energy Systems”, The World Bank, 2011. the primary legislation governing disaster risk man- agement (DRM) in the country; (b) establishment of the National Emergency Management Organization well as extreme weather events. Such measures (NEMO), with representation from the Government may not eliminate all future impacts on the power Cabinet, to ensure effective coordination of the mul- sector from storms and hurricanes, but they could tiple agencies responsible for implementing the DRM significantly reduce the likelihood and the negative legislation; and (c) adoption of the National Climate impacts of such outcomes. Since some damages are Resilience Investment Plan (2014) that is designed to inevitable irrespective of preventive actions taken, mainstream and ensure the consistency of climate having in place an improved plan to quickly respond adaptation investments with the country’s national to emergencies and rapidly restore services will fur- planning. The energy sector is represented in vary- ther minimize service disruptions and the overall ing degrees in all these efforts that provide a legal, impacts of storms on the power sector. Financial policy, and institutional framework for advancing protections and institutional mechanisms can also be measures for enhancing resilience. utilized to enhance the resilience framework by shift- ing the risks from extreme weather towards others A risk management framework for enhancing resil- who are better placed and capable of bearing them. ience of the power system to adverse weather A similar Integrated Risk Management Framework, and climate change impacts would primarily focus as illustrated in Figure 20, is applied in designing on the following aspects: 1) strengthening the the ERCAP supported by the World Bank and GEF existing infrastructure and operational capabili- to assist Belize address some of its critical energy ties to minimize damages and disruptions, and resilience and climate adaptation concerns. 2) improving the domestic capacity to respond rapidly and recover efficiently from the residual By further evaluating the impact of past tropi- damages that would still occur. The power system cal storms and hurricanes, it will help illustrate in Belize could be physically strengthened (‘hard- specific vulnerabilities of the power system, and ened’) and better strategically planned to improve its capacity to withstand the impacts of regular as 32 Initially issued in year 2000, revised in 2003. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 23 identify measures that can be taken to enhance Hurricane Dean, in 2007, illustrates the extent resilience in order to avoid similar damages and to which the transmission network is exposed disruptions from occurring in the future. Analyzing during extreme weather due to inadequate seg- the sequence of events that led to some of the mentation of the system. Revisiting the impact of significant damages and service disruptions expe- Hurricane Dean on the hourly dispatched energy in rienced during Tropical Storm Alex and Hurricanes Figure 21, the system steadily deteriorated initially Dean and Richard provides insights into some of the due to the damage caused by high winds to the specific vulnerabilities in the power system. These distribution system in northern Belize. However, as illustrations focus on actual events that led to ser- illustrated in the Figure 21, at 6:23 am, the transmis- vice disruptions and hypothetical events that have sion system began to experience cascading faults been avoided in the past but may materialize in the that affected the whole line and caused a near future. They also identify potential measures, which, blackout of the entire power system in the country. if they had been in place at the time of the extreme weather event, would have either prevented or During Hurricane Dean, a fault that occurred at a substantially reduced the damages or service inter- CFE transmission lines in Mexico led to a series ruptions. These illustrations helped identify and of cascading “trips” that left the entire transmis- validate some of the priority activities that are sion system on the Belize mainland inoperable. included in the ERCAP with support from the World Hurricane Dean, which brought winds in excess Bank through funding from GEF. of 165 mile per hour through northern Belize and bordering region of Mexico, triggered a series of ILLUSTRATION 1: Segmentation of the Transmission Network 33 Power line faults have many causes: lightening discharges, trees touching the line, two phases short-circuiting, insula- tion failures, etc. most of which occur during adverse weather BEL ’s transmission system lacks adequate segmen- conditions. These ‘faults’ can be transient or permanent. In tation, making it vulnerable to extreme weather. the case of transient faults, disturbances are cleared naturally (e.g. when the lightening surge decays or a branch touching When BEL’s transmission network was originally con- the line burns out). In such cases the line will ‘hold’ when re- structed, many substations were supplied from ‘Tee energized by switching ‘on’ the circuit breaker. In the case of off’ or spur lines without segmentation between adja- permanent faults, disturbances are not cleared and the line will not ‘hold’ until the cause of the fault has been removed cent substations, which made the entire transmission physically (e.g. when a damaged insulator is replaced or a line vulnerable in case of faults or disturbances.33 grounded conductor is re-strung). FIGURE 21. Transmission Failure during Hurricane Dean and its impact on Electricity Dispatch Impact of Dean on Hourly Dispatched Electricity Generation 45,000 40,000 Dean landfall 1:45 35,000 30,000 25,000 kWh 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Cayo, Belize, Toledo and Stan Creek districts – Transmission line 06:23 – System outage in Punta Gorda, iIndependence, Belize City, Ladyville, Belmopan, Dandriga, San Ignacio areas affecting 49,525 customers during 2 to 4 hours Source: Belize Electricity Limited. 24 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 22. Cascading Disruptions in the Transmission Network during Hurricane Dean CFE 1 CFZ Corozal San Pedrito LEGEND Buena Vista 115 kV Transmission line 69 kV Transmission line Orange Walk BELCOGEN 3 34.5 kV Submarine cable (since 2009) San Pedro Maskall 34.5 kV Transmission line 2 San Pedro 22 kV line Caye 10 Caulker CFE supply Ladyville Existing substation 6 7 4 Hydroelectric plant Belize City 8 La Democracia Main Diesel power station West Lake Camalote Standby Diesel power station Mullins River Belmopan Illustrated Transmission San Ignacio Interruption Dangriga Vaca (since 2010) Mollejon Chalillo 5 11 Savannah BAPCOL (since 2009) Independence 9 Hydro Maya Punta Gorda Source: Belize Electricity Limited and author illustrations. disruptions that began on the Mexican side but 150 kV transmission line in Belize, up to the rapidly spread to render the Belize transmission Westlake substation, becoming inoperable system inoperable. The series of disruptions to the (Reference distance from 1 to 4 ). BEL transmission network, which is graphically illus- • Due to the inoperable northern transmission trated with corresponding numerical references in line, electricity from the Westlake power plant Figure 22, are as follows: (Reference location 4 ) also could not be evac- uated to supply the northern part of Belize. • CFE transmission lines in Mexico near the bor- • The “trip” in the northern transmission line then der with Belize experienced a fault due to a continued to cascade leading to the western fallen tree at 6:23 am on August 21st, interrupt- transmission line from Westlake to beyond San ing power supply to BEL’s system (Reference Ignacio to become inoperable (Reference dis- location 1 in Figure 22). This is the main sub- tance from 4 to 5 ). station that supplies up to 50 MW of power • As a result, Hydro BECOL (Reference location generation capacity from CFE to BEL. 5 ), which is the largest domestic power plant • The fault at the CFE substation triggered a cas- in Belize, could not evacuate the bulk of its cade that resulted in the northern part of the power, and was reduced to supplying a limited The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 25 local area. The transmission disruptions on the electricity purchased from CFE at that time, it would western line also cut off electricity supply to the have nevertheless been a useful temporary solution capital Belmopan, amongst other significant cit- that could have avoided the major blackout that ies in the west of the country. Belize faced during Hurricane Dean. Since Hurricane • The “trip” in the western transmission line also Dean, there is now a 13.5 MW Belcogen biomass co- extended east from the Westlake substation generation power plant (Reference location 2 ) that (Reference location 4 ) to Belize City (Reference is in operation, commissioned in 2009. If Belcogen location 6 ), cutting off electricity supply to the had been in operation at the time of Hurricane Dean, largest and most populated city in the country. it would have been another power generation node • The cascading transmission “trips” then affected that would have been cut off from the system due to the 69 kV southern transmission line from La cascading faults as a result of the lack of segmenta- Democracia to Punta Gorda (Reference distance tion; and would have had an even greater impact. from 7 to 9 ) and the 22kV connection to the 7 Therefore, it can be concluded that had there been MW Hydro Maya power plant, cutting electricity adequate segmentation of the system with circuit service to the southern part of Belize. breakers at the time of Hurricane Dean, it could have • As a result of this cascading disturbances, prac- prevented the cascade of “trips” from spreading tically the entire transmission network in Belize beyond the Maskall substation (Reference location was affected and the country experienced a 3 ), and avoided the near-system wide blackout of near-blackout. Only the isolated small grid in the system. Under such a scenario, only an estimated Caye Caulker (Reference location 10 ) remained 13,000 or about 18% of BEL customers would have operational. been impacted from the transmission failure com- pared with the 64,000 that were actually effected. These events resulted in the dispatch of only 3.5 percent of the electricity supplied on August 14th, During Hurricane Richard in 2010, Belize also a week before the events. Consequently, more faced an extended transmission failure due to a than 64,000 customers (about 88 percent of BEL’s “trip” that cascaded. On October 24th, at 7:23 pm, customer base) lost power, although none of the several transmission poles fell tangling the wires power plants sustained significant damage due to on the 115 kV western transmission line (Reference the hurricane. distance from 7 to 8 ), between the substations at La Democracia and Camalote. Since the western Hurricane Dean’s impact on the power system in transmission line was not segmented at the time, Belize could have been significantly reduced if the the fault cascaded and rendered the entire western transmission system was adequately segmented. If transmission line inoperable for over 20 hours. As a the transmission network had been segmented at key result, the 51.5 MW Hydro Becol (Reference loca- substations, then the damage at the CFE transmis- tion 5 ) was unable to dispatch, cutting off supply to sion lines (Reference location 1 ) would have been San Ignacio and the capital, Belmopan. Over 18,000 isolated to BEL’s northern transmission line section. customers (23% of BEL’s total customer base) were By enabling the system to decouple the transmis- effected. If the western transmission line was seg- sion and isolate the section affected by the fault, the mented with circuit breakers at the time, the fault rest of the transmission network in Belize could have could have been isolated between the substations at remained energized and most of the power system La Democracia and Camalote (Reference locations operational. The loss of significant supply from CFE 7 and 8 , respectively), and as a result, much fewer in Mexico would have still posed a challenge, but customers (only those between the two substations) given the multiple other generation sources in the would have been impacted and electricity supply BEL system, they could have been brought online from Hydro Becol to the key cities of Belmopan and to make up for the shortfall. For example, additional San Ignacio would have continued. electricity could have been supplied from the 22.5 MW Westlake power plant, which is a gas turbine that BEL is making efforts to segment its transmis- operates on diesel. While operating the Westlake sion lines throughout the system, which is being power plant would have been a costlier option than supported by the World Bank and GEF. Given 26 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize its past experience with adverse weather, BEL has growths. Some transmission poles have also devel- installed some protections to segment parts of its oped longitudinal cracks (‘checking’), which weaken transmission although some critical substations that them and make way for further decay by allowing are generation nodes remain unsegmented. Since fungal growth. Bush fires have also affected some of these unsegmented sections makes the transmis- the poles.35 Such signs are a warning of the increas- sion system vulnerable during a future tropical ingly greater possibility that strong winds generated storm or hurricane should a line damage occur in from future tropical storms or hurricanes would these areas, BEL, through the ERCAP, is expected to cause a number of already weakened poles to col- install switchyards at Belcogen (Reference location lapse. This has been avoided to date due to BEL’s 2 ), and Bapcol34 (Reference location 11 ), with line inspections, aggressive approach to maintenance, circuit breakers for the ‘in’ and ‘out’ of each trans- and through temporary limited fixes. However, the mission line section. At Belcogen in the north, the weakened state of the structures could lead to line will be segmented to two sections: from CFE catastrophic damages to large sections of the trans- supply to Belcogen, and from Belcogen to Maskall. mission line, causing significant power shortages for At Bapcol in the South the line will be segmented extended periods. to two sections: from Dangriga to Bapcol and from Bapcol to Savannah. This would effectively complete A transmission section that was identified by BEL the needed segmentation of BEL’s existing trans- as being particularly vulnerable due to its weak- mission network until further expansion and system ened state is the line from Maskall to Westlake. It upgrades are considered. is responsible for transporting significant amount of electricity from CFE and other generators in Belize to multiple load centers in the country. Successive ILLUSTRATION 2: Strengthening of storms and hurricanes will continue to batter and further weaken the structures along this line making Transmission Network Structures them progressively more vulnerable to a catastrophic collapse. While such a major event has been pre- BEL’s transmission line structures are deteriorat- vented to date, this illustration explores disruptions ing and could jeopardize the resilience of the that could be caused due to the downing of some overall power system. It is important for the reli- of the weakened poles. The hypothetical events are ability and resilience of the power system to prevent graphically illustrated with corresponding numerical or limit damages to the transmission lines, includ- references to Figure 23: ing from ‘downing’ of the structures during tropical storms and hurricanes, as they can lead to extended • A collapse of transmission structures along the power supply outages affecting large numbers of 115 kV transmission section between Maskall consumers. Large power companies usually design and Westlake substations (Reference distance and build their main transmission in-line with secure from 1 to 2 in Figure 23) due to high winds standards utilizing self-supporting lattice steel struc- during a future storm or hurricane would trun- tures. This practice, however, can be too costly for a cate the power system in Belize. This section small utility such as BEL, which utilizes wooden pole is particularly vulnerable as it passes through structures for its transmission network, a substan- water logged and saline areas that have led to tially lower cost option. the corrosion of metal structures as well as wood decay and other factors that have weakened the Specific portions of the transmission lines remain infrastructure. particularly vulnerable to increasing climatic events even if they were avoided until now. 34 The substation at Bapcol, located near Savannah and Inde- Regular inspections carried out by BEL have revealed pendence, evacuates power from a 15MW high speed fuel that certain portions of the transmission line are oil plant, which is presently kept on stand-by by BEL as a experiencing substantial corrosion of the anchors, back-up. The Bapcol power plant was not in existence at the time of Hurricane Dean, as it was commissioned later in 2009. guy wires and attachments. Many sections of the However, segmentation at Bapcol is important for system reli- transmission line have also been affected by prema- ability in BEL’s current transmission network. ture wood decay due to termite attack and fungal 35 BEL has reported losses of 5 poles per year due to bush fires. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 27 • The result following such an occurrence would from 1 to 2 ), the above event would leave Belize be the immediate cut off of power supply City (Reference location 3 ) without electricity, from the north and the loss of service to con- since electricity from the northern power stations sumers along the inoperable transmission (Reference locations 4 and 5 ) or the back-up section. It would cut off electricity supply from facility at Westlake (Reference location 2 ) could CFE (Reference location 4 ) and the Belcogen no longer be evacuated to supply the Belize City bagasse co-generation power plant (Reference distribution network. This would leave over 17,500 location 5 ) to the load centers in central and customers in Belize City without electricity (21 per- southern Belize. cent of BEL’s 2014 customer base) until the lines can • An estimated 24,500 customers (30 percent be restored. of the 2014 customer base) or more in the central area of Belize (Reference shaded area BEL is taking measures to “harden” the trans- marked A ) would experience extended loss of mission infrastructure to enhance resilience and service as a result of the damage to the transmis- ensure reliable operations, helping avoid cata- sion line and its inability to evacuate power from strophic damage to the power system during the north. future extreme weather events. The immediate • If the transmission damage would impact the focus is on the transmission sections from Maskall southern part of the country creating electric- to Westlake substations and Westlake to Belize City ity shortages, an additional estimated 11,000 substations, which were identified as being in particu- customers would experience supply shortages larly poor condition and most vulnerable. With World (Reference shaded area marked B ). Bank and GEF support through the ERCAP, BEL plans • Since the inability to evacuate electricity from to evaluate alternative line supports and new design the critical northern generation sources would standards for each type of terrain encountered along leave Belize City, the country’s largest load cen- the identified transmission line routes. This may ter, without supply, BEL would have to resort include various types of pylons such as fiber-glass, to operating the costlier, 22.5 MW diesel-fired fiber reinforced polymer, pre-stressed concrete, as gas turbine (Reference location 2 ). While this well as alternate support designs; to determine their could reduce supply disruptions to Belize City, it suitability to the specific terrain and climate condi- would temporarily increase BEL’s cost of supply. tions. The evaluation would also review measures to rehabilitate/strengthen poles that are salvageable. There could be additional disruptions from a col- The rehabilitation and replacement of transmis- lapse of transmission infrastructure as a result of sion infrastructure along the Maskall-Westlake line extreme weather compared with those indicated in (Reference distance from 1 to 2 in Figure 23) the previous illustrative example. During inspections, would significantly enhance resilience and minimize weaknesses were also detected in the infrastructure potentially major supply disruptions. It would consid- that extends the transmission line from Westlake to erably reduce the risk of interruption of imports from Belize City. Damage to this section would lead to Mexico (Reference location 4 ) as well as from the additional disruptions, which are also graphically Belcogen biomass co-generation plant (Reference illustrated with corresponding numerical references location 5 ) and enable uninterrupted electricity to Figure 23: supply to load centers in the central and southern areas of the country. If the upgrade also included A collapse of transmission structures along the 115 the only transmission section linking Westlake to kV transmission section between Westlake and Belize City (Reference distance from 2 to 3 in Belize City (Reference distance from 2 to 3 in Figure 23), it would prevent a potential blackout for Figure 23) could occur because of weakened poles over 17,500 customers based in the city.36 The pro- and infrastructure that would collapse from the posed evaluations and investments supported by the impacts of a tropical storm or hurricane. 36 Resilience would also be strengthened due to the ongoing construction of a “by-pass” transmission link from Ladyville Coupled with the disruptions along the Maskall- that is a little farther north that will provide another supply Westlake transmission link (Reference distance feeder from Westlake to Belize City. 28 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 23. Illustration of Potential Impacts from a Transmission Infrastructure Collapse CFE CFZ 4 Corozal San Pedrito LEGEND 115 kV Transmission line Buena Vista 69 kV Transmission line Orange Walk 1 34.5 kV Submarine cable San Pedro BELCOGEN Maskall 34.5 kV Transmission line 5 San Pedro 22 kV line Caye Caulker CFE supply Existing substation Ladyville 2 3 3 Hydroelectric plant La Democracia Belize Main Diesel power station City Camalote West Lake A Standby Diesel power station Mullins River Illustrated Transmission Belmopan Interruption San Ignacio Vaca Dangriga Mollejon Chalillo 6 B BAPCOL Savannah Independence Hydro Maya Punta Gorda 7 Source: Belize Electricity Limited and author illustrations. ERCAP would immediately enhance the resilience of the resilience of the power system individually. the system by strengthening the transmission sec- However, together, they would provide greater tions that are the most compromised. It will also help security. For example, the strengthening of the BEL in deciding to strengthen existing standards or poles and associated equipment along the trans- introduce new standards that are better adapted to mission section from Maskall to Westlake (Reference characteristics of specific terrains traversed by the distance from 1 to 2 in Figure 23) would help transmission lines, and apply them in the upgrade prevent a catastrophic collapse in that area, and and expansion of the remainder of its transmission avoid severe impact on the system. However, seg- system across the country. mentation of the transmission line at the Maskall (Reference location 1 ) and Westlake (Reference Segmenting the transmission network and hard- location 2 ) substations, limits the impact of the ening the infrastructure are complimentary and collapse to the Maskall-Westlake line segment. It together provide greater resilience to the power prevents additional “trips” north of Maskall and system. Illustrations 1 and 2 in this Chapter high- west of Westlake, providing an additional layer of light how each set of measures would enhance resilience for the overall power system. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 29 FIGURE 24. Transmission Disruption due to a Falling Tree on HV line during Hurricane Richard and its impact on Electricity Dispatch 60,000 Impact of Hurricane Richard on Hourly Dispatched Electricity Generation 50,000 Richard landfall 40,000 kWh 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Toledo, Stann Creek districts –Transmission & Distribution Lines 16:56 – fallen tree affecting: y 3,492 customers in the Punta Gorda area & 3,382 customers in Independence for 1 day due to transmission line damage y 361 customers in the Dangriga area & 317 customers in the Mullins River for 2–3 days due to distribution line damage Source: Belize Electricity Limited. ILLUSTRATION 3: Improved Hurricanes Richard in Figure 24 shows how, at 4:56 PM on October 24th, a fallen tree on a transmission Vegetation Management line caused a succession of events that led to a sig- Good vegetation management practices are vital nificant reduction in the dispatched electricity. to maintain system resilience especially in tropical climates. One of the highest recurrent maintenance A further review of the events surrounding the disrup- costs in most utilities is vegetation management.37 It tions from the falling tree is graphically illustrated with can have even more significance in tropical climates corresponding numerical references in Figure 25 : where vegetation growth can be particularly aggres- sive. Excessive and unwanted vegetation can hinder • The impact of Hurricane Richard that swept management and upkeep of electrical infrastructure. across Central Belize resulted in a tree col- It will impact BEL’s system performance especially lapsing on the transmission line between the during storms as lines can be damaged due to falling Camalote and La Democracia substations trees/branches and during extended droughts when (Reference distance from 1 to 2 in Figure 25). the risks of damaged structures from wildfires increase. • This caused the failure of 115 kV line segment BEL also indicated that inadequate vegetation man- from Westlake to San Ignacio (Reference dis- agement resulted in certain infrastructure being tance from 3 to 4) 115 kV. inaccessible during and after extreme weather events • It also led to the failure of the 69 kV southern hindering their capacity for emergency response distribution line from the La Democracia to the and recovery. BEL already has in place a vegetation Punta Gorda substations (Reference distance management plan. It recognizes the need to further from 2 to 5 ). improve the company’s practices given its importance • While the 115 kV western line was quickly to maintaining a resilient power sector operation. restored, the 69 kV southern distribution line remained inoperable for an additional 21 hours Hurricane Richard, in 2010, provides an illus- before it was repaired. As a result, over 7,500 tration of the extent to which disruptions can 37 “Before And After the Storm: A compilation of recent stud- extend due to a damage caused to the power ies, programs, and policies related to storm hardening and lines from a fallen tree. Revisiting the impact of resiliency”, Edison Electric Institute, Update 2014. 30 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 25. Illustration of Transmission Disruption due to Collapsed Tree during Hurricane Richard CFE CFZ Corozal San Pedrito LEGEND Buena Vista 115 kV Transmission line 69 kV Transmission line Orange Walk 34.5 kV Submarine cable BELCOGEN San Pedro Maskall 34.5 kV Transmission line San Pedro 22 kV line Caye Caulker Illustrated transmission interruption CFE supply Ladyville 2 4 Existing substation Belize City La Democracia 1 Hydroelectric plant West Lake Camalote 3 Main Diesel power station Mullins River Belmopan Standby Diesel power station San Ignacio Dangriga Vaca Illustrated location of collapsed tree Mollejon Chalillo BAPCOL Savannah Independence Hydro Maya Punta Gorda 5 Source: Belize Electricity Limited and author illustration. customers in the southern part of the country, vegetation management would have increased about 10 percent of BEL’s 2010 customer base, accessibility for emergency vehicles and crews to remained without electricity service until the locations with damaged infrastructure reducing the damage was repaired. extensive time it took to energize the 69 kV south- ern distribution line. Therefore, through the ERCAP, BEL plans to improve its vegetation manage- BEL is expected to review its vegetation manage- ment practices so it can proactively mitigate ment practices to bring them in-line with best damages to its power infrastructure and increase practice approaches necessary in a tropical climate. access during emergency response operations This might include various strategies to vegetation to areas where damages occur. BEL would like management based on emerging trends 38 such to reduce the likelihood of events such as the as identifying and targeting the removal of trees one that occurred during Hurricane Richard. It is dangerous to the system in addition to routine possible that with more effective vegetation man- trimming of branches and clearing ways; applying agement prior to Hurricane Richard, BEL could new bio-friendly techniques; and better coordinat- have prevented the tree falling and damaging its ing with local concerned officials. infrastructure avoiding the system outages that followed. It is even possible that better planned 38 Ibid. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 31 FIGURE 26. Summary Table of Distribution Damage Sustained from Storms and Hurricanes Geographical Region North Central West South TOTAL Tropical Storm Alex (2010) Faults on Distribution Line (#) 3 1 — — 4 Customers Affected (#) 2,314 540 — — 2,854 Affected Load (MW) 3.2 1.4 — — 4.6 Hurricane Dean (2007) Faults on Distribution Line (#) 10 2 — — 12 Customers Affected (#) 17,487 4,003 — — 21,490 Affected Load (MW) 10.5 4.2 — — 14.7 Hurricane Richard (2010) Faults on Distribution Line (#) — 10 — 5 15 Customers Affected (#) — 14,486 — 10,091 24,577 Affected Load (MW) — 28.8 — 19.2 48.0 Source: Belize Electricity Limited. ILLUSTRATION 4: Distribution customer base at the time in 2010. All four recorded System Infrastructure faults during tropical storm Alex were distribution related, and impacted nearly 3,000 customers. Strengthening Several factors contributed to the vulnerabilities While transmission damage can lead to signifi- of BEL’s distribution system. Given the recurrent cant and extended outages, a large proportion of nature and destructive power of tropical storms and the storm damages occur in the distribution sys- hurricanes, it is difficult to fully avoid damages to the tem. As shown in the table in Figure 26, there was distribution system in Belize during such weather widespread damage to the distribution system as a events. In fact, distribution infrastructure can sustain result of Hurricanes Dean and Richard, and Tropical damages even during tropical monsoons that are com- Strom Alex. While Hurricane Dean triggered a CFE monplace in countries such as Belize. Nevertheless, it transmission fault in Mexico that cascaded through is essential for system reliability and resilience that BEL Belize’s entire transmission system, most of distribu- carry out regular maintenance where the infrastruc- tion failures were concentrated along the path of the ture is routinely tested, followed by rapid replacement storm in northern and some part of central Belize. or rehabilitation of equipment and infrastructure Hurricane Richard, on the other hand, was a storm when necessary. BEL is attempting to progressively that covered most parts of the country causing dam- address some weaknesses that have been identi- ages to a large number of distribution systems. In fied in its distribution network include the following: fact, 12 of the 13 faults recorded by BEL during Hurricane Dean impacted the distribution network • Routine inspections, strengthening and upgrad- and 15 of the 17 faults recorded during Hurricane ing of distribution line poles, cross arms, and Richard also impacted the distribution network. lines as well as conductivity improvement of According to BEL, the damages were primarily due ground wires.39 to heavy rains, winds and lightening as well as fallen • Improvement of the vegetation management trees/branches damaging the distribution infrastruc- practices to sustain the integrity of the distribu- ture. As a result of the distribution failures during tion network. Hurricane Dean, over 21,000 BEL customers, nearly 30 percent of its customer base at the time in 2007, experienced service interruptions. During Hurricane 39 BEL has indicated that the fittings in many distribution poles Richard, the customers effected by the distribution are removed and stolen for its metal content, requiring regu- failures totaled nearly 25,000, over 32 percent of its lar monitoring and replacement. 32 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize • Upkeep and maintenance of the grid substations have also illustrated the need for BEL to develop since most of the distribution load centers are its capacity to better respond to emergencies and dependent on a single substation with a single quickly recover its full operational capability. For transformer, thus limiting the alternate supply example, during Hurricane Dean in 2007, there were possibilities in the event of a major failure. three events where the associated outages lasted • Reinforcement of the design and equipment of between 4–6 days before service was fully restored. the substations prone to flooding, which could More than 10,000 customers or over 13 percent of damage or even render equipment unusable BEL’s customer base remained without service during even after the waters subside. Therefore, equip- this extended period. Similarly, there were outages ment such as battery banks can be relocated to that resulted from five events during Hurricane safer locations that may include elevated plat- Richard in 2010 that required up to 2–4 days to forms to reduce the likelihood of flood damage. restore full service to about 10,000 customers. • Strengthening of control buildings that have suffered damages to metal structural panels BEL is seeking to improve its preparedness and rooftops, which make them particularly capabilities to better respond to emergencies vulnerable to future storms unless they are including extreme weather events. BEL has proto- strengthened or replaced. cols in its Hurricane Preparedness Plan to respond to major weather events but it could be improved to The ERCAP will support investments in the relocation meet latest industry practice and further reduce the of battery banks in several locations and strength- time it takes to reconstruct and recover. There are ening the control buildings as well as the upgrade also indications that improvements can be made to in vegetation management practices. For various its infrastructure, system operations, and technolog- other distribution system related upgrades, BEL is ical capabilities that will complement and facilitate being supported by the Caribbean Development the implementation of a revamped Emergency Bank. BEL funds its own routine inspections and Response and Recovery Plan. For example, BEL’s maintenance. current communication network is outdated and often have patchy coverage, forcing BEL emergency While the above-mentioned “hardening” measures workers at times to rely on cellular phones for com- will help upkeep the distribution system and reduce munications during storms and hurricanes. BEL also the scale and impact of likely damages during future acknowledges that they are often unable to quickly weather events, it will be just as important for BEL to identify the causes and locations of disruptions when improve its preparedness to respond to some events line segments get truncated severing communica- and damages that are inevitable. Therefore, BEL will tion, or the utility would be constrained to maintain need to develop its response and recovery capa- system reliability if the main load control and dis- bilities concurrently with its efforts to strengthen patch center based in Belize City were to become network infrastructure, in order to maximize the inoperable. Therefore, BEL is planning to undertake resilience of the power system. This is further elabo- the following actions as a part of improving its emer- rated in the next illustration. gency response and planning capabilities: • Preparation of a more effective Emergency ILLUSTRATION 5: Emergency Response and Recovery Plan by upgrading its Response and Recovery Planning existing Hurricane Preparedness Plan to include good practice recovery protocols. This would Past experience indicates that the efficiency and help to shift away from restoration actions taken speed of response and recovery during extreme on an ad hoc basis and increase the efficiency weather events could be improved to enhance of the interventions and likely reducing the resilience. While many of the system “hardening” recovery time. measures identified previously will reinforce the • Redesign of its communication system and shift power system to better withstand the impacts of to a new digital VHF network that will provide extreme weather events, reviewing past experiences national coverage to all of its transmission and The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 33 distribution network locations. Additional relays well as response and recovery during extreme are needed to enhance signals at some of the weather events. existing repeater stations in order to reduce • Installation of Advanced Metering Infrastructure dead spots and improve coverage; as well as (AMI), which has multiple functions, can also purchase of several truck mounted repeater remotely provide information when electric- stations that can be rapidly deployed to areas ity service is either disrupted or restored at the where there is a major failure. household level. • Strengthening the load control and dispatch • Implementation of an outage management sys- capabilities particularly when faced with tem that utilizes a combination of hardware and extreme weather disruptions. This will include software that will identify, record and help BEL the construction of a back-up control and dis- personnel better manage responses to faults patch center in Belmopan should the primary and outages, including facilitating customer facility in Belize City become inoperable or dis- interface (including linkages to AMI). The data connected from parts of the power system. collected will also help evaluate the frequencies • Coordination with the National Meteorological and durations of system outages. Service (NMS) to gain access to real-time mete- orological and hydrological data through the The above enhancements to BEL’s operations are installation of monitoring stations. The real being supported by the ERCAP with targeted GEF time data would improve BEL’s preparedness as funds allocated to select activities. 34 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 6. THE ENERGY RESILIENCE FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION PROJECT (ERCAP) The GoB efforts to enhance energy resilience are • Strengthen the transmission structures along being supported by the World Bank and GEF. As line sections especially where there is sub- previously noted, an $8 million GEF grant is being stantial weakening of wooden structures and provided through the World Bank to fund the ERCAP, corrosion in metal fittings by testing different which aims to demonstrate solutions that enhance materials to identify the most suitable options resilience of the energy system in Belize to adverse under various terrains. weather and climate change impacts. The ERCAP • Improve BEL’s vegetation management practices is intended to support the energy sector related in order to minimize damages to infrastructure aspects of GoB’s framework established through its from falling trees and branches during adverse NCRIP40 and the Disaster Preparedness and Response weather conditions, which lead to failures in the Act. The ERCAP’s design includes three major com- transmission and distribution system. ponents: 1) Long-Term planning and capacity • Improve the operational and dispatch capabili- building for adaptation, 2) Demonstration measures ties of BEL including in consideration of extreme to enhance resilience of energy sector, and, 3) Project weather and climatic impacts through the instal- implementation support and information dissemina- lation of a back-up control and dispatch center at tion for knowledge sharing. The project is expected Belmopan, gain access to real-time meteorological to have an immediate impact by strengthening key and hydrological data, and hydrological modeling areas of vulnerability, and also help mainstream some of the Macal Catchment Area where most of the of the successful efforts so that they can be scaled-up country’s hydro power plants are located. in the broader energy sector over the long-term. • Undertake as a part of the ERCAP a number of enhancements to its distribution system includ- While the ERCAP is designed to address key vul- ing improvements to the control buildings at nerabilities in the broader energy sector, most of select substations and relocation of battery its activities focus specifically on enhancing the banks there it is prone to flooding. This is in resilience in Belize’s power sector. The evaluations addition to various ongoing maintenance and carried out and presented in this paper helped validate repairs BEL undertakes with its own budget as the various solutions that are proposed for implemen- well as a project under implementation with sup- tation under the ERCAP. The solutions supported by port from the Caribbean Development Bank.41 the ERCAP include a complementary combination of • Develop an Emergency Response and Recovery technical assistance, specific investments, capacity Plan and commensurate institutional capabilities building efforts, and knowledge sharing activities. BEL for its implementation in order to improve the will be implementing a majority share of the activities speed and quality of response to emergency under the ERCAP, since a major focus of the project is situations and efficient and effective recovery. to strengthen the power system and the capabilities of the utility. This includes the following: 40 The World Bank is also supporting the GoB’s efforts to ad- dress resilience in the transport sector under the NCRIP • Fully segment BEL’s single backbone, radial framework through the separate complementary Belize Cli- transmission system so that it can contain future mate Resilience Infrastructure Project (BCRIP). faults and prevent cascading outages. 41 Electricity System Upgrade and Expansion Project. The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 35 BOX: Financial Arrangements to Address Catastrophic Risks in Belize The ERCAP primarily focuses on physical investments and technical assistance activities. It is comple- mented by additional financial arrangements made by the GoB and BEL to address financial implications of catastrophic risks. Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility – Private commercial insurance has become costly and unaffordable for many Caribbean countries, obliging them to resort to alternate measures. One such endeavor is the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), which was established in 2007 with the assistance of the World Bank, to pool resources to provide insurance that cover damages related to risks associated from tropical cyclones, earthquakes, and excess rainfall. The CCRIF has 17 member countries at present including Belize. The GoB currently subscribes to the tropical cyclone policy with coverage of US$16 million and earthquake policy with coverage of US$ 2.5 million. CCRIF insurance payouts can be channeled to support the energy sector. BEL Catastrophic Reserve Fund – Before 2002, the BEL obtained insurance coverage for its assets through private sources until the premiums in the Caribbean became cost-prohibitive. Since then, the GoB addresses the need for insuring assets through its utility regulator, the Public Utilities Commission (PUC), which mandates BEL to maintain a reserve fund of US$5 million on its balance sheet. During a natural-disaster-led emergency, BEL, in consultation with the PUC, may withdraw from the reserve fund to cover costs toward response and recovery in the power sector. The response and recovery capabilities will be arranged according to the integrated risk manage- further enhanced through upgrades to BEL’s ment framework for energy resilience and climate communication system, and improvements to adaptation, presented previously in Chapter 5. the management of utility/client interaction dur- ing emergencies including the implementation The support provided through the ERCAP can make of an outage management system and piloting a significant contribution to enhancing the resilience Advanced Metering Infrastructure. of the power system in Belize, helping reduce the impacts of extreme weather.. These resilience enhancement measures by BEL supported by the ERCAP are presented in Figure 27 36 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize FIGURE 27. Illustration of the ERCAP Framework and Design BELIZE: Energy Resilience for Climate Adaptation Project (ERCAP) Solutions to enhance resilience of energy system to adverse weather & climate change impacts Enhance System Rapid Response Resilience & Recovery Planning System Emergency Recovery & & Operations Strengthening Response Reconstruction Long-term energy planning Transmission system Improve emergency response Improve emergency recovery for climate adaptation** strengthening* plan** and reconstruction plan** yTest alternative material for yDevelop storm preparedness plan ySystematic and rapid Segmentation of transmission poles to strengthen weakest and institutional protocols approach to recovery network* line sections yDamage assessments and yInstallation of breakers & Strengthening select evaluation insulators distribution substations* Preventive measures and Collection of meteorological and yImprovements to control emergency repair access** hydrological data * building to better withstand yImprove vegetation management yInstallation of MET and adverse weather plan HYDRO-MET monitors yRelocation of DC battery bank Improve awareness and communi- Improved operational and to prevent flood damage cation during emergencies* dispatch capabilities* yEnhance communication system yReal time hydro and weather w/ VHF network, installation of data access for dispatch relays, and mobile repeaters management yPilot Advanced Metering yBack-Up control center Infrastructure (AMI) y Implement outage management system The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize * indicates investment ** indicates technical assistance Source: Authors. 37 BIBLIOGRAPHY Belize Electricity Limited, Annual Reports, 2007 to Government of Belize, National Meteorological 2014. 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Jayawardena, Borja Garcia Serna, and Jace Jeesun Han Production Credits Typesetting | The Word Express, Inc. Photo Credits Hurricane photo on cover courtesy of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), page xi photo courtesy of the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), all other photos courtesy of Belize Electricity Limited (BEL). Copyright © September 2016 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK GROUP 1818 H Street, NW | Washington DC 20433 | USA 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 25 years The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was established on the eve of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, to help tackle our planet’s most pressing environmental problems. Since then, the GEF has provided $14.5 billion in grants and mobilized $75.4 billion in additional financing for almost 4,000 projects. 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