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World Development Report:                                    2008                                          
Agriculture for Development                                                                                       

Copyright © 2008 by The International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development/The World Bank
1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA
All RIGHTS RESERVED

                         .            /                                                  2008 ©

                                            .

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not
necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they
represent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries,
colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any
judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the
endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.


                              .
                                                .

                                            .

                                                                                    2008/16926 :
                                                                                    ISBN 977-282-377-2

               .Critical Stages   Bill Pragluski Rock Creek Strategic Marketing      Chris Lester
                                                         .Precision Graphics :

Lillian                       :                                                                        .
:Lillian Foo                           :Lillian Foo Holstein          Alexander Rowland                       :Foo
Arne                         :Curt Carnemark/World Bank photo Library
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                          ª       ª                   

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34                                                                     .                 1.1
34                .                                                                      1.2
38        .                                                                              1.3
40                                    .                                                  1.4
42                                                 .                                     1.5
43            .                                            :                             1.6
68                                        :                                              2.1
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 71                                           ."       "                           2.2
 73                                                                                2.3
 76                                   .                                            2.4
 81   .                                                                            2.5
 95                                                .                               3.1
 95                                            .                                   3.2
102                           .                                                    3.3
108                                                                                3.4
                                                                           .
111       .                                                                        3.5
114                                                .                               3.6
118                                                                                3.7
125                                                    .                           4.1
127                   .                                                            4.2
130                                                            .                   4.3
133           .                                                                    4.4
135                       .                                                        4.5
137                                       .                                        4.6
142                               .                                                4.7
150                                                        .                       4.8
156                                                         .                                                          5.1
158                                                                                                                    5.2
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161               .                                    200                      :                                      5.3
162                                   .                                                                 :              5.4
168                           .               :                                                                        5.5
172                                            .                                                                       5.6
183                                                .                                                                   6.1
185                                                             .                                                      6.2
186                                                                                                                    6.3
188                                                                 .                                                  6.4
191                                                                                                 : ( SA)            6.5
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196                                                         .                                                          6.6
199                                                                                                                    6.7
201               .                                                                                                    6.8
203                                                                                 .                                  6.9
213           .                                                                                :                       7.1
215                                                                     .                                              7.2
217                       .                                         :                                                  7.3
219                                           .                                                                        7.4
221                                                                                      .                             7.5
224           .                                                                                                        7.6
225               (               )                                                                                    7.7
227                                       .                                              :                             7.8
231                                                :                                                                   7.9
                                                                            .
243                                       Syr Darya                                                         Aral       8.1
247                                                     .                                                              8.2
249                   .               Andean                                                                           8.3
250                                                                 .                                                  8.4
253                                       .                                                                 :          8.5
255   .                                                                                 Parklands                      8.6
257                       .                                                                                            8.7
258       .                                                                                                            8.8

275                                                Maharashtra                                                         9.1
278                                                           .                       9.2

288                                                   .                   :           9.3

290                              .                                                    9.4

303                      .                                                            10.1

306                                                       .                           10.2
                         .                                                            10.3
312
                                                  .                                   10.4
318
                                          .                                           11.1
325
          .                                                   :                       11.2
328
                             .                                                        11.3
329
                                          .                                           11.4
331
                                          .                           :               11.5
332
                                                  .                                   11.6
334
                                              .                                       11.7
344
                                     _                                                11.8
346
                                 .


 4            1993                                                                     1
                                         .(                       )           2002
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                                                                              .
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                                                              .
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                                                                          .
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32                                                                                    1.2
                                                      .
36                                                                                    1.3
                                                  .
40                                                                                    1.4
                                                      .1994 ­ 1958
45         .                                                                          1.5
47                                                                                    1.6
                                                          . 2005 ­ 1993
48                                                                                    1.7
                                                                     .
50        . 2004           1975                                                       1.8
64                 .                                                                  2.1
65                                                                                    2.2
                                                                              .
66                                                                                    2.3
                                              .
67                         .                                                          2.4
70                                                                                    2.5
                                                                                  .
75    .                                                                               2.6
77                                .                                                   2.7
77             .                                                                      2.8
79    .                                                                               2.9
79                                                                                    2.10
                       .
80             .                                                                      2.11
83                                        .                                           2.12
84                                        .                                           2.13
98                                    .                                               3.1
98                     .                                                              3.2
99                                                .                                   3.3
101            .                                                                      3.4
106           .                                                                                  3.5
111                       .                                                                      3.6
116                                                                                              3.7
                                                                       .
126                                                                                              4.1
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130                       9                                                                      4.2
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131                                                        .                                     4.3
132                                               10           9                                 4.4
                                                                       .
134                                                    7       6                                 4.5
                                                                       .
138                   .                                                                          4.6
138                                   .                                                          4.7
140                                                                                              4.8
                                                                   .
150                           .                                                                  4.9
155                                                        .                                     5.1
159                                                                                              5.2
                                                                                   .
162                               .                                                              5.3
163   .                                                                                          5.4
164                                       .                                                      5.5
169       .                                                                                      5.6
189                   .                                                                          6.1
198   .2005                                                                                      6.2
198                                       2005 2004                                              6.3
                                                                           .
207               .                                                                              7.1
215                                                                                              7.2
                                                                           .           43
230                                           .                                                  7.3
241           .                                                                                  8.1
244                                                        .                                     8.2
260                                                                                              8.3
                                                                               .
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271                   .                                                                 9.2
271       .                                                                             9.3
272               .                                                                     9.4
276   .                                                                                 9.5
276                   .                                                                 9.6
277                                                                                     9.7
                                                              .2005
279                                                                                     9.8
                                                                              .
280                                                                                     9.9
                                                                          .
280                           .                                                         9.10
281                       .                                                             9.11
282                   .                                                                 9.12
283                                                                                     9.13
                                  .               250
284                                   .                                                 9.14
307                                                       .                             10.1
315                                                                   .                 10.2
320                                       .                                             10.3
324                       .                                                             11.1
332                                                                                     11.2
                                                              .

                                                                                     
 6                                                        .2005                          1
37                            .2005                                                     1.1
37                                                            .2002                     1.2
49                                            .                                         1.3
93                                                .                                     3.1
96            .                                                                         3.2
110                                                   .                                 3.3
132                                   .(          )                                     4.1
138                                                   .                                 4.2
141           .                                                                         4.3
167                                       .                                             5.1
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                                                     .
218       1981                                                   7.1
                                                         .2000
223                      .                                       7.2
229                                  .                           7.3
238                                   .                          8.1
269                                          .                   9.1
270                                  .(          )               9.2
285          25 18                                               9.3
                                                         .
343                              .                               11.1

                                                             
69                                       .                       2.1
69    .                                                          2.2
240                  .                                           8.1
252                          .                                   8.2
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        23                 2004I2000<<<<<<<1984I1980
                                                          20
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                                                                                                                                              20
                                                     14
                         11 13              10            10                                                                                  10
                                                                          2
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                                                          10                                                                                   10
                                                          20                                                                                   20
                                                                                14                13
                                                          30                                                                19                 30
                                                          40                                               29                                  40
                                                          50                                                                                   50
                                                          60                                                                       46          60




                                                                                                      .(             ) Anderson :
    .                                                                                                                                   :




.
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                                                 )
                               .(                                                                                          5.5
                                                                     15                                                 21
            .




                           .
                                                                                       :
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                    .
                                            .1990




                            .



                                .
         1998




                                             .
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                                        .
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                                                     Transactian Costs

                .




                                    .

     .
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                    (                             )                                                           W                ¯




                                                                                                 .


                                                      .
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                             .(                               )
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                                                                                               2004                              138


    .economies of scale                                                 60
                                                                                       .


                        .
                                                                                           (                             )
                                                                                                                   :6


                            100 = 1980                                                           100= 1980
                                                                  350                                                        350

                                                                  300                                                        300
                                                                  250                                                        250

                                                                  200                                                        200

                                                                  150                                                        150
                                                                  100                                                        100

                                                                  50                                                         50

                                                                  0                                                          0
         1980       1985     1990       2000    2005
                                                                         1980   1985           1990    2000       2005




                                  Source: http://faostat.fao.org,accessed June 2007, and http://comtrade.un.org :
17




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                                                           WDR 2008 team, based on data from the United :     
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                                                                                                                                 .
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                                                   WDR 2008 team, based on data from International Country Risk Guide, http://www.icrgonline.com.        :
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                                                                  .



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                                                   .(11                  )
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                                                               WDR 2008 team, based on nationally representative household surveys.<V...,'¹]


                                                                <

                      .
32                                                                       .
                                39

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                                       .

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                                   .

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                                                                                                  .

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                        24

                                          28                    (CDD)
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                                           Í  
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:                                         .(1)                                     883
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.
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31




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              3.5                                                       50            3.5                                   (         )          50

                                                                        40                                                                       40
              2.5               (           )
                                                                                      2.5
                                                                        30                                                                       30

                                    (           )                       20                                (          )                           20
              1.5                                                                     1.5
                                                                        10                                                                       10
              0.5                                                       0             0.5                                                        0
              1984   1987       1990    1993        1996    1999 2002             1984      1987       1990   1993   1996   1999 2002


                                                                              .2006                      Ravallion and Chen 2004:
                s


                        (                              85            50                                                           W                      
     (1.2                   )


                                                                                                                                          .
                                                             .


                                                                 .                                 )
                                                                                              2008                                                                                32

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                                                                          .
                                                 64              34                   .
                             .(4)
           1800            400

                      20
                                                                                  .
.                                   43
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                                                                                                                                   1980
                                        8100              1800
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                                           2003 1961                                                         2003 1961




                                    (                 )          2000
                                                                         WDR 2008 team, based on data from World Bank 2006y.                                                :
                                                      .                                                                                                                     :
33



                                              .(6)2040
                          (           )

                                                                                                                            .

          .



                                                                                                                        .
                                                      .
                                                                                               .
     .

                                                                            .
                  .
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                                                                             )
                                                           .
     81
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              1993
                                                                                               W                   
                                                          2002
     19                                   .

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                                                                                                   2002               1993
                                                                                           .

                          (                   2.15)
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                                                                                                     2008                                           34


                                                                                                                                    : 1.1
                                                                                3                                2.5
      2030                                                    2025              .
                                                              .                                                                     1.5
                                                                                                 800
                                .1995                                                               .

           .                                                                                                                      2020

                                                                                                .(                         )
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                                                                     <á^ÓSÖ]<àÚ<<°èøÚ                            °éËèÖ]<á^ÓSÖ]<í'u
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 < 40
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     0                                       0
                                                                                                  0
 1950<<<<<1970<<<<<1990<<<<2010 <<<<2030 1950<<<<<1970 <<<<1990 < <2010 <<<<2030                1950 <<<<1970 <<<<1990<<<<2010<<<<<2030
                            <   è...^ÓÖ]<Ùææ<íéßéiøÖ]<^ÓèÚ_      ^éÏèÊ_
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                                                                                                                  United Nations 2004.   :

                                           :                                                                                        :1.2
Demery &                                2001                                    1981                                               42
                                         (2007) Christaensen                                               1                   2003
           2.7
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                                                                                                                                    2.5
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                                                                 .
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Hasan &                                   2
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                                                                                                     2.5                                 Quintile


                    .
                                                                                                                       .
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                        .                        Deciles                                                                   1980
35


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                                                                                            Ligon and Sadoulet 2007 :
                                   .                                               95                                   :

                                                      2.15
     .                         63                                              .


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                                                                           (                                        )

                                                                                                           .
                                                  .

                                                                           .
                                                                                              )
                                                                                                  (
         .
                 )
                 1996          1988        1981                                                                             .
               1970           1965)       (2001
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     1970        )         (1999           1989
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          (1996           1990         1975                               (Non-Farm)
                    .(1.3               )
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                                                                                        )
                         .         25 15                                                      (
                                                                                                      .
                                              .
                                                                                         2008                                       36

                             .2005                   1993
                       49                                                      .
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                                                     2002              /
                                                                                                               WDR 2008 team.   :
                                                                                                                                :
          )                                                                (2006    DDP                           )
                                         .               2.15                                (2007 Sangraula, Chen, Ravallion

                                                          .                      2000
        :                                     2006                           2004 Chen, Ravallion
(http://www.bps.go.id)                                                     (www.aclac.org)
          .                                                        .
                                                              .
37


                                                                     .2005                                                                                                                :1.1

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                                                                                                          D°èø¹^eE ÌèÖ]<á^ÓSÖ]<í'u
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                                                                                                    DAE ÌèÖ]<á^ÓSÖ<»]Ç¢]<ÄèçjÖ]

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                                                                                                       Labor force data: FAO 2006a. Other data: World Bank 2006y.                               :
     71                                                                                                                           5                 74                                          :
                                                                                    .                                           2005                                          .

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                                                                                                                                                                    DAE ë­£]<ÏËÖ]<Ù,ÃÚ
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                                                                                                                                                                  DAE<êËèÖ]<ÏËÖ]<Ù,ÃÚ
                                                                                                                                                                DAE ë­£]<ÏËÖ]<Ù,ÃÚ
                                                                                                                                   Ravallion, Chen, Sangraula 2007 :
                                                               1.1                                                                60                               :
                                                                        .1993                                                                                 .

                                                                             :                                             W                                             Ù                    Ò
                              )
               )                                                     Teff
     .(                                                                                                                                        :
                                                                2008                                                38



                        .                                                    .
                                                                                              :



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                                                                                 .(                             )
            .               Hainan
39



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             tica (INEGI) for Mexico.a e Informstica GeografCentral Statistical Organization and Planning Commission for India, Instituto Nacional de Estad    :

                 .
                                                                                                                                                           .

                                            .(1.4                 )                                       .
                                                  W                          


         (                                                                   )
     .                                                                                                                         .                 38
                                                                                                   .(                                 )                 1.7

                           390         )
             .(14)(2006                                740             2001


                                              .
                                                                                                                                                                   .


                                                                                                        .(13)
                                                                   .
                                                                                                                                   ) 1994                              1958
                                        .                                                                 .(
                                                                             2008                                                                                     40

                                                                 )             (                                 )
                                                                                        (15)
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    .                                                                                                                         :1.4


                                                                                    1994 1958
                            .
                                        (16)
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                                                                                   ØèçÖ]<ï,¹]<î×Â<<< 'ÏÖ]<ï,¹]<î×Â<<<<<<<<                                        <
                                                                                               ...^{{{{{{{{ma<<<<<<<<<<<<{{{{{ma<<<<<<<<<<<<...^{{{{mû]
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                                                                                                                                                                  <
                                                                                                                                                                  <
                                                       < <                           Datt and Ravallion 1998a<V...,'¹]
                                                                                                                                                          :
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                        .

                                                             .
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            .
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                    (                              )                                                                                             .
                        .
41




                          .                                                                   .


                                              .


                                                                                         .
            (                                         )                              .                                     :


                                          .
                                                                                              .
            Eifert, Gelb and Ramach and ran 2005, Wood and Mayer, 2001 (                 ) Collier and Venables :


                                                                     .(17)


                                                                                .
                                                                          (Lesotho        )
                 .(                           )
                 .
                                                                           .(                                  )
                              )
             (                                                                                                 .
                 .                                               )
                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                  .
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                                                                                                           ¯                    


                                  .(1.4           )


                      .
                                                                                                  .



                                                                                                                   .
                                                                           2015                                    100
     (19)
     .                                                               .(18)
                                                                             2000
                                                                                         2008                                                42

             )
                                                            .(
                                                                                                             .(20)
                                 .
                                                                                     (      )
             )
                                                       .(                                                                        .
                                                                                                                                         .
     .




                 .(1.5               )
                                                                                                 .


                                                                                                                             :1.5


                                                                              1985                                   .
                 .                                                                                                                   1999
                                                                                                     .(21)


                                                                                                                         (GDP)
                                                                                     .
                                     .                                            1996
     1981                       47                                                                                           .
70                   58                                      1996
                         (22)


         .                                                                                                   .
                                                                    Mwabu and Thorbecke 2004          1982                       :

         .                                        57                                                                     W                   



                                         80


                                              .                                                                  .
                                                                        1995 ­ 1993                                                  7
                            .                                                                   13
43



                     .
                                                                      .


                                                            2.5                   .2001     1980
                                                                                 3.7
                                            (9          )
                                                                                      .1999      1970




                                             .
                                                                                                          .
                 .   (25)                                   1980
                                                                                                              2001
         )
     80 75                                   (                            .(23)1999    1965


                                   2001   1980

         (                          )                                                       .
                                                 (26)                                      (24)
                                             .
                                                                  .


                                                            :                                     :1.6

                         1974
                                                                                                      .


     .1975                  1973
                                                            (                   )
                                                                                      30
                                                                                                  .
     .
                                                                                .
             .

                                                            40)
     .                                                                                 (

                 .
                                                                                .
                                                                       2008                                     44



                                               .                         .1986
                                                          .
                                                .
                                                                                      Hayami 2005 :
                     :                                    Ù                                                     
                                                                                                                 
                                         .
          .




                                       (29).


                                                                             . (1.6        )


                                               (30)



                                                                          )
                          (31).
                                                                                                   (


                  .(32)




                                                                                      (2                    )
                  .(1.5           )(                  )
30
     33                                                                           . (27)
          .


                                                                                               .


                                       .(34)

                                                                                                       (5       )

              .
                                                              .28
45

              (38)

                                                                                      .(35)


          .
                                                
                                 6                                                                      .



                     30
                                                                           (36)
                                        .                                         .
     45


                                       18
                                       .                          .(37)


                                            .                 .
                      .
                          .                                                                   1.5




                          2000

                                     World Bank 2006y; UNIDO Industrial Statistics Database 2005. :
                                                          .                                         :
                                                                 2008                                     46

                   (10           )                                                                         

               )
                                                   .(5               .
                                                  Ù 
                                                                                       .

                                         .               .


                                 .                                  .

       .
                                                                                             .
                                                             .
                                                    ·    .

                             .
                                                    ·    .
           .
                                                    ·
               .
           .                                        ·                                             .
                                                                         .



Adam                                                                                 .(39)       1.2 ­ 0.6
                                                 Smith
                                                                                                      .
.
                                                                             .
                                                         .



                                                                                 .
                                     (41)
                                     .
                                                                    .(40)
                             (               )

                         .
47

                                              1.5           0.5



                                                    .(42)                               .(1.6       )




                                                       .                                                                 .

                                                                                                                    .

                                 .                                                                          .

                                                                                                                          (TFP)
     Engel's                                                                       .
                       :                              ) Law
                       .(                                                         1992 1967
                                                                          (TFP)
                                                                                                                        1.6
                                                                                                    2005 1993
                            a                                     a                             a


                                              7                               7                                 7
                                              6                               6                                 6
                                              5                               5                                 5
                                                     3.68%
                                              4                               4                                 4
                                                                                                    A2.13
                                              3                               3                                 3
                                                      3.16%           %2.21
               %0.55
                                              2                               2        %4.39                    2
               %1.96            %2.69         1                               1                     %1.79       1
                                                                      %0.65
                                % 0.63        0                               0                                 0
                                                                                       1.01%
                                              1                               1                                 1



                   %                                                  %


                                                                                                            FAO (2006a) :
                                         .(                                                         )                         :a
                                                                                                    2008                                           48


                 .
                                               10


                                       .                0.43                        .

                                                                                                                                   (43)
                                                                                          18                                              (1991)
           .(4               )                                                            .
                                                                                               30
      )
                                   (                                                            .


                 .(1.7       )


                                               .


                                                                                                                                     1.7

                                                                     6                                                                        10
                                                                     5
                                                                                                                                              8
                                                                     4

                                                                     3                                                                        6

                                                                     2
                                                                                                                                              4
                                                                     1
       1995 1984                                                                                                                              2
                                                                     0
       2005 1995
                                                                         1                                                                    0
     0.6         0.4             0.2                0          0.2           2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987   1985 1983


                                                                                                       http://www.icrgonline.com :
                                                                                                                                          :
                                                                                                                       .                      .


1992
                                                          2000
10                                         .                                                                      .

                         (44).
60                                              6
51
49



                                                                             1984 1978                                            11            33
                                                             .

                                       10                                                                       .(45)



      .

                                                                                                                                    (OECD)
            .                                                                .

                         .                                                   5
                                                                                                                        .(4             )

       )          35                                       700
      ( )                50            (                                                                                            .

                                            (47)
                                                   .(7            )
                                                                                                                )
                                                                                            (46)
                                                                                                   .                                        (



                                     20             15                                                                        .
                                                                                                            .
                        (48)
                               .(2                  )
                                                                                                       4)                (                  )
                                                                                                                                        (2004
                                                         .(49)               .(1.3            ) .(1980                            10)
                                                                                                                                  :1.3




     2004        1980          2004         1980           2004       1980

     2.7         8.1            7.0         14.3            4.0       6.9            (%)


     12.1        16.9           10.6        10.2            4.0       3.7
                                                                                                                          (%)

     10.2        14.4           15.6        24.4           28.9       28.8            (%)
                                                                                                                        Fan.            :
            11                              12                           12)     14                                                     :
                                                                                                                 .(
                                                                                    2008                                                          50




                                             (53,52)
                                                       (ODA)                        .(1.3                     )
    1979                 18
                                                                                          (50)
             .(1.8           ) 2004                        3.5
                              )              8
                3.4           1984             (2004                                                               .
                                               .2004
                                                                                                      (                              )
                                                       .                                                               .



                                                                                                                   (51).

.
                      (54)


                                                                                                                           40
     1975                                                               2002                              75                         1975
                          .              1.2                                                                               .(4                    )


                     .

                                                                                                                                     .

                              .2004 1975                                                                                             :1.8

      2004


                          2004                                   2004                                                  2004
                                         5                                     5     20     (     )                                          10
                                         4                                     4     16                                                      8

                                         3                                     3     12                                                      6

                                         2                                     2     8                                                       4

                                         1                                     1     4                                                       2
                                                                                            (             )
                                         0                                     0     0                                                       0
    1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005         1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005        1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005



                                                                                                                  OECD 2006a :
                                                                                                                                         :
                                                                                                                                 .
51




                 .                                                                            (1) :


                                                                                                      (2)
                                                           (3)
                                                     (4)




                                                                                        (5)
                                 .
                                                                                .


                                                                        .
                                                 .



     (56).

                                                             (55)
                                                                    .


                             (               )
                 .
                         .
             .
                                                                                               .




                                         .                                          .



                                     .                     .(11             )

                         .                                                                    2001
                                                                                    .
                     .
                                                                  2008                             52

                .
                        2004

                                  .(60)                                    .
        .                                                                          (               )
                                                                       .
                    .


                .                                                                              .

                                                  (58).



                                              .


                                          .
            .                                                                      (59)




                              .                                        .




                                                                                       .(4.4       )
.
                                                  .

        .                                                     .



                                                                                   .
                          .
                                                              50
                                                                               .
    .
                                                          .
                                                  1978

                                      .
                                                                   .
53

                                                     .

             .



                 .                                   )
                                                                                               .(61) (4


                     .
                                                                       .
     .

                                                     (62).
     .                                                           (11              )
                                                         .


                                PROCAMPO
                                                                                           .
                                                 ª                                Ù ª               


                            .
                                   



                                 .
         .                                                                                     .



                                             "   "


                                                                       .
                                         .
                                                             .



                                                                    .(63)
                                     .
                                             .
         .
                                                                              .
                                                                                                                                          54



                                                                                                                          E       Ø       F
                                                                                                                              ª


                                                                                                 75                               .
                             45                                              .
                                                                              2002                1993
                                                                                                                      .
                                            .


                                                                       75                                       1.8
         .
                                                                                     .           58



                           .( .3      .2        )                      37                                         .( .1                   )
                                                                       2002                       30            1993
                                                                              1.08
     )                                                                                   .( .1                  )
                                                            .( .4
                                                                                     .           32                   35
                                                                               1
                                                                                                                      .    0.9
         .                                                                                                            2.15
                                                                                                      70                78
                                                                       2.1                            2.2
                                                                                                                                      .
             (1)
             .
                                                                                                            .
                 (2)
             . .2030                                60                 40      )
                                                                                                            (2002
                                   1.08                                                           (           51              )
39                                     25                                                .1993
                                     ( 3)
                                    . .2030


                       .


                       .
55


                                                              2002


                 1.08                        (          13       )
                                       (4)
                                                                                            .
             (                                   1.08                 )                                                  .1


                     1.200                                           600                                         60
                                   (               )
                     1.000                                           500                                         50
                     800                                             400                                         40
                     600                                             300                                         30
                     400                                             200                                         20
                     200                                             100                                         10
                      0                                             0                                                0
                      2002         1999                1996      1993      2002      1999         1996        1993




                                                                                    Ravallion, Chen and Sangraula 2007          :

                                                                                                                             : .1
     1.08                                .             10
     2002                                                                             2002                     1993
     1.067                               1.183                             Ravallion, )
                                   .                                                                  .(Chen and Sangraula 2007
                                                                           2.15                 1.08

                                                                           .
                                                            .2002



                                                                                                                              :. 2
                 .
        .                                                                            .                 "25"
                                                                           "Chen"        ""Ravallion "
                                                                           53                                                 (2007)
                             .                                             2001                        8      1981
             .                                                                                  500
                                                                                                                         .
                                                              1978         76
                                 .1985            1981                      2001                      12      1980
                                                                                                                    56

             . "Chem Gulati, Fan 2005)
                         (2007) "   "Ravallion"




                     .
             (                            )


         .


                                                                               . (Lin 1993).
. (Ravallion & Chen 2007)                                                                      15
    .                                                   (Von Braun, Gulati, Fan       1984          1978
                                                                                                            2005)

                                                        1981
                                                                                                     1985
                                                                                                    .


                                                                "GDP "
                 .                                                               1952
                                                          (Von Braun,   2004




                                                                           70
                                                                                70
                                                                           60
                                                                                60
                                                                           50
                                                                                50
                                                                           40
                                                                                40
                                                                           30
                                                                           20 30
                                                                           10 20
                                                                           0
                                                                                10
                             2002   1999 1996 1993   1990 1987 1984     1981




                                                                         Ravallion and Chen 2007        :
57


                                                                                                                                        : .3
     .
                    . 2004                         1980

                                                                                                                                    ­
                             .
                                                                                                                     .
                                 .                                                           64
                                                                                    34      1977                      50            1967
                                                                                                                  . 1986

         .                                                                                                .

                                                                                                                         .
                                                                                                              .
             1.4                               ­          ­                                           .
             . 2000                      1.7                          1983
                                                                                                                                        (              )
                                     .

                                                                                                                                                   .
                                                                                                          1991
                                                                  .

                                                    .                                             .
                                                                                                              2004
                                                                                                                               1993
                                                                                                                                             .
                                                              .



                                                                                                                                               70
                                                                                                                                               60
                                                                                                                                               50
                                                                                                                                               40
                                                                                                                                               30
                                                                                                                                               20
                                                                                                                                               10

                                                                                                                                                 0
             2005     2000       1995              1990           1985       1980   1975   1970    1965       1960           1955           1950

                             World Bank 2000b; 2007 National Sample Survey (NSS), Government of India :
                                         .               "NSS"                                        :
                                                                                                                                                      58


                                                                                                                                    :      : 4
            2001                 .            1                                                             "           "
    "        "                                                                                                              "15"
                                     "             "                                                                          .
                                                                       10                                                       4
                           30                                                        . 2001                          1980   5
                                                           .                      ­ 1991         51.7
                                                                                  28.5      99 ­ 1998        39.5      92
                                     9                )                                              . 2006 ­ 2005
                                                  2006                            .                         17
"           ."               "                                                              ­                     24
                                         "             "           "              ­

                                                                                                                                          59
        .                                                                         .

                                                                                         0.39            0.35                Gini                 )
                                                                                                                               (        "15"
                                                               .                                                "             "

                                                                                                                    .

                                                               . 1990
                 .                                                                2001                              .
                                                                                                                                           . 2005 ­
                                                                                                5       7

                                                                                                                    .               5.2
                     10
                            .


                                                                                                    80

                                                                                                    60

                                                                                                    40

                                                                                                    20

                                                                                                    0
                                             2005-06                    1998-99            1991-92

                                               Coulombe and Wodon 2007 :


                          Bogetic and others 2007; Coulombe and Wodon 2007; Jackson and Acharya 2007.:
59



                   ( .2         )
             1951


                                    . ( .3           )         .               ­
                                                                                   70
                                                                                   (     )
                                                                                                                   80
                          .(5) ( .2          )                                                             .
                                                                                                    : .2
                                                                           .


                                                                                                       4

                                                                                                       3

                                                                                                       2

                                                                                                       1

                                                                                                       0
     2001 1999 1999 1989 2000 1991 2002 1993 2001 1992       2001 1985 2004 1997 2002 1990 2002 1989




                                        WDR 2008 team, from nationally representative household surveys.   :


       .                                                       ­


                   ­                                     ­
                                                                                                .          ­
                                    .


            .(6)
                                                                                                               .
                              81                                      ­
                   8.5                     6.9 )               ­
                                                 (
                                                                                                                    60


                           .                                      . ( .1       )




                               )                                       .
                                              .(                  67


                                                                                                      : 1


 )
           2.15
       (


1993         2002
85.2          82.5                 -2.8               -1.5

87.6          86.8                 -0.8               -0.4

91.5          88.6                 -2.9               -2.7

85.1          63.2             -21.9                  -20.0

88.6          65.1             -23.6                  -22.1

35.8          37.6                 1.9                    6.1

19.8          18.7                 -1.1               -0.3

47.3          46.4                 -0.9                   7.8

78.2          69.7                 -8.5               -6.9

73.7          71.3                 -2.4               -1.6


                                   WDR calculations, based on data in Ravallion, Chen and Sangraula 2007 :
                                    .                      2.15       1993                               :
                           ) 2002
                  .(                               1993                                          ..
                       ­


                  .                                                                         2002             1993
                                                                  2        )
                                                                                                             (7)
                                          .                                                              .         (.


                                                                                          . 2002
                       .
61

                                                                                                                45


                          .                                                    . ( .2          )       55
                                                                 .
                                                                               52                       )           80
                                                                                                                              (
                                                                                                                .        80
                                                         .
                                                                                                   "

                              "                              "
                                                                                                                              .
                                        .
                                                                                                            :
                                                                                                        .
     "
                                                    ."                                                                        ­


                                                                                                   .


                                                                                                                          : 2



          (            2.15                     )


         1993   2002    2002 1993
         79.8   77.5          -2.2                           81.1                       44.6

         85.1   83.4          -1.7                           35.8                   1734

         89.1   85.6          -3.5                           60.7                       56.0
         70.6   45.6          -25.0                          53.4                       48.8

         72.8   44.6          -28.3                          52.0                       48.8

         23.5   23.5              0.1                            n.a.                   n.a
         16.6   13.6          -3.0                           14.1                       3.5

         29.6   31.7              2.1                        -10.3                      88.1

         63.3   54.4          -8.8                           55.5                       45.1
         59.6   57.9          -1.8                           78.8                       52.4

                                    WDR calculations, based on data in Ravallion, Chen, and Sangraula 2007. :
                                            .                           2.15     1993                                             :
                                                                                                                                      = n.a
                                                                                                         62



                                     .(11)
                                                         )
                       .                                                                     . ( .3

                                .3                                               .

                       .
                                                                           (9)



                                50
                                                                                         (               )
                                46                            .(             )
                                42

                                38
                                                                   )

                                30                                                             .(10)( .3
                                                .
                                20
                                                         83
                                10

                                0                                                .


                Buys and others 2007 :                                                        .
                                        :                                                (             75)
        )
                                                70
                       (GAEZ
                                                                                                  80

.2000       IIASA                                                                    .


              .GAEZ                                  .

                    .GAEZ


                            .         100.000
                .                                                      .




                                                .


                                                                   .
                                                                                    
                                            Ó                                                  


                                                                                                   1982
                   .                                                            .



                                                              :
                                                          :
               .                                                                           .
        .                                                 :
   .                                                      :                                            .
                                                      :                                                        (           )

                                            .
  ª                                                                  
                                                                     
1980                          .
(GDP)                                                         2004                                                     .
                                  0.2
                   1.6                                                                                             .



        .                                                            1.8        .(1            )
                                                                  

9.0                                     2.6                                                                .
(2004       1980)

                   .                                                                   .
   2004                  65         1980                                56
                                     21
        .(1) 2004                                                                                  .


                                                (2)

                                        .
               2.8
                                                                                                                                                  2008                                                      64

                                                                                                   .                                                        2004 1961
                                                                                                                             1.8
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                                                                                                                                                                      :
                                                                                                                                                    :
                                                                                                                                                        .
                                                 .                                                                                                                    .a
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             )     10        28
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                                                   .
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129

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                                                                            2006                           .



                      120.000                      1996                                                         .
                                                    .(                                 62
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                                                                                                                         .

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                                                                                       .
                                                                                                                         40
                                                                                               .                                             20
                      .
                                                                                                                              2005 2000
                                                                   10
                                                                        .                                                                    15 ­

                                                   .                          24.721                   )
                  Anderson, Martin, and Van Der Menshrugghe 2006a, Anderson and Valenzuela (          ), Masayoshi :
                       Honma, Yujiro Hayami, Dan Sumner, Don Mitchell, and John Baffes, all Personal Communication 2007.



                                                                            11                         9
                                                                                 .(4.2             )



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                                                                     .(                                                      40          ) 2004
       .(1                 )



                               .
                                                                                      2008                                             130

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                                      10
46
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131


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                                                                         30                                    2004-2000       1984-1980
                                                                                                                                                      30
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                                   11 13                 10
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                                                                         10           2
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                                                                         10-               -14           -13
                                                                                                                               -19                    20
                                                                         -20                                                                          30
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                                                                         -30                                                                          40
                                                                                                                                      -46
                                                                         -40
                                                                               <^'jÎ÷]<î×Â<íÛñ^Î<á],×e < á],×e                 < íÛñ^Î<á],×e          50
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      < ë­£]<^'jÎ÷]               < íÖçvjÚ<            < íÂ]...^Ö]<î×             < ë­£]              < íÖçvjÚ<               < íÂ]...^Ö]<î×Â


                                                                                                               Andersen (                   ):
                                                                     4.5 4.4 4.2                                                                 :
      2000
                                                                                                                                                     2004
                                                                                                                                  .

      2000                           9
             .(4.5                                              ) 2004             .2004 2000            1984 1980


                                                                                           13
                           (8)
                       )                                                                                                                         11
             .(                                                                    .(4.3             )     13                    29


                                                                                           1984 1980
                                                                                              2008                                              132



        23             26                                                  2000
                                                                                                                                      2004
2                                                            14                           .(4.1             )
                                  .(4.3              )                                         2004 2000 84 1980


                                           (             )                                                               4.1
                                                                                                                      
     04- 2000          84- 1980        04- 2000                   84- 1980      04- 2000          84- 1980                   
       52                -11                    35                  33              76                -36
       44                -4                     4                   -12              5                -4
       -8                 8                     8                   -4               -3               -12
        4                -38                     -                   -               -7               -53
       -1                -14                    8                   -23              -7               -11
        -                 -                     -2                  -20             -15               -32
        -                 -                      -                   -              -36               -51
        -                 -                     9                    9              -38               -19
        -                 -                      -                   -              -50               -49
                                                                                     .               Andersen (              ):
                                                                                                                              :
                                                                                                            .
                                                                          9                                           :4.4
                                                                                                                 10
                                       )       (9)                                                                .
                                                                                                                                      ^éSéÞæ,Þc

                     (1992                                                                                                             ,ß ]
                                                                                                                                       ,Þøè^i
       30       93/ 1992                   4
                                                                                                                                       ^è^éÖ^Ú
                       ) 03/2002
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                                               .(10)(
                                                                                                                                      á^jSÒ^e
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     .93/1992                     30
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38              13     03/2002         93/1992
                 .                                                        40   20         0     -20        -40    -60    -80
                                                                                    A<ì,Â^SÛ×Ö<Øéò­Ö]<Ù,ù]
2
                                                                                  2004-2000            1984 -1980
            .93/1992                                                                                  Anderson (                  )
133


                                                                                                                                                        2003/2002
                                                                                                                                             24


                                                    .


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                                                                                                                                                              ¯            
                                                          .


                                                                                                                                                           :4.4

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                                  (
                                                                                                                      .
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                                                                                                  )
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                                             .(


          2005 1980                                                                         2004 1965                                                      ­

                                                                               120                                                                                     120
                                                                                                <êÂ]...^Ö]< Æ<Å^Ï×Ö<íÞçÃÛ×Ö<Øéò­Ö]<Ù,ù]
                <êÂ]...^Ö]< Æ<Å^Ï×Ö<íÞçÃÛ×Ö<Øéò­Ö]<Ù,ù]                       80                                                                                      80
                                                                               40                                                                                    40
                                                                                                                                           < <íÞçÃÛ×Ö<Øéò­Ö]<Ù,ù]<<<<<
                                 êÂ]...^Ö]<Å^Ï×Ö<íÞçÃÛ×Ö<Øéò­Ö]<Ù,ù]                                                                               êÂ]...^Ö]<Å^Ï×Ö<<<<<<
                                                                               0                                                                                       0
                                                                                   40                                                                                      40
                          <íÞçÃÛ×Ö< SßÖ]<Ù,ù]                                                                   < <íÞçÃÛ×Ö< SßÖ]<Ù,ù]
                                                                                   80                                                                                  -80
      2000 05       1995 99        1990 94           1985 89                1980 84     2000 04 1995 99 1990 94 1985 89 1980 84 1975 79             1970 74        1965 69




                                                                                                                           Andersen (                         ):
                     (NRAag)                     100 (100+NRAag) / (100+Nra nanagt)-1)                                                                         :
                                                             (NRAnanag)
                                                                    100                .(                                                       )
                                                                               .
                                                                                   2008                                                 134


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                                                                                                    Anderson   (            ):

             .




                                                   .
                                                                         (                            )
                                          .                                            )
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100
                                     300                                    (4.5            )
                                                               (                                )
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                                                                                   )
                                     .(
                                                                                                                                (
                           6
                                                                                       .
9
135

      17
               5

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                                      :                                                 :4.5
                                                         .

                                                     (               )        (                )
       .
       300                                                           .2004 ­ 2000 1984 1980
                   .    50                                            (                   )
                                                                         .
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                                              1993                                 1991




           .

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                                                                 .1986
                                                                    )
               .
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                          :



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                              :
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                                                                                              2008                                      136


                                                                                                                          2008



         2004
                                         80                                                   .
                                                3.5
                                                                                                                   2002
                       .
                                                                           1910



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                                .




                                                        .                  PROCAMPO


    <Avalos-Sartorio 2006; Huang, Rozelle, and Rosegrant 1999; Lin 1992; McMillan, Waley, and Zhu 1989; Opolot and Kuteesa 2006; :
         Qian and Weingast 1996; Robinson 2005; Rosenzweig 2003; Rozelle 1996; Swinnen and Rozelle 2006; World Bank 2002a; Yang 1996;
                                                                              Yunez-Naude and Barceinas Paredes 2004; Zahinser 2004.

                              90                                                    30

.
                                                                                                                             (4.2       )
                                                      (13)

                  89                                                        2015                                                .
11                                                                                                                            0.8
                                        .(14)                               5.2
                                                                                                  .            3.2




                                    .                                                          .(4.2          )
137

                                           .(4.7        )
                                                                                                               :
                                                                                                                     .
      49                                                             2006
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                                    .                               1.3                                                  5.5
                                                                                                       (15)
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                                                                                      .           65          54

      21        ) (16)        10
            ( 2006
      8:4                                                                                                            (4.6           )
                                               .(17)

                                                        .                                                               :4.6



                                                                                                                    .




                                                                                 .
                                                                   27                                               LINKAGE
                                   decaupled
                                                 .                         13                      25



                                   .(                  )

                                                 .



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                               .
                                           <Francois and Martin 2007; Hertel and others 2006; van der Mensbrugghe 2006.:(       )
                                                                                              2008                                                   138



                                                           .
                      .
                                                                         .                                                          4.2
                          .                                                    2015




              16.4             6.6                9.8
              28.2            23.0                5.2

              47.0            38.0                 9.1
               8.4             2.4                 5.9
              100.0           70.0                30.0                                  (                )
               0.7             0.6                 0.8


                                                                                    Anderson, Martin, and van der Mensbrugghe 2006a.   :
                      2001                                                                                                             :
                                                                                                                                .

                                                         4.7                                                                        4.6
                                                                                                   .

     27                                                 <àÏÖ]                20.8                                                    <àÏÖ]

34                                                       <ÛÖ]<^f                      15.1
                                                                                                                                     <ÛÖ]<^fÂ


                                  7                      á^fÖù]<l^rjßÚ                        11.9
                                                                                                                                     á^fÖù]<l^rjßÚ


                                      5                 <íߤ]<hçf£]                                          7.0                     <íߤ]<hçf£]
            21                                           xÛÏÖ]                                                                        xÛÏÖ]
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                 18                                      íÃß'¹]<Ýçv×Ö]                                              4.3
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                                          2
                                                         ...ù]                                                                       ...ù]
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                                      4
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     Anderson, Martin, andvan der Mensbrughe 2006a.         :                       Anderson, Martin, andvan der Mensbrughe 2006a. :
139


                                                                        10


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                               .
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                 .
                                                  12                                  .
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                                                                                                         (                            )
      25                                                                     40                                   )            10
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                                              .
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                                                                                      2008                                    140


              K                                                                                                  4.3
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                            .


                                                                                              .(4.8        )


                   15                               .                                                                .(24)
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                                                                                                                         3

        2.0
                                                                                                                         2


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                                   0.0              0.0
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                    -0.1
                                                                  0.2
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                                                                                                                1.7      -2




                                                                                                                      :
Derived from Anderson, Martin, and van der Mensbrugghe 2006a.
a. Difference between estimated average annual agricultural growth to 2015 under full liberalization in 2005 and the baseline
without liberalization

       (4.3             )                     (




                                                                   .


               .


                                                                                      )
141


                            (4.3          )(                               .



                                          .
                                                              )
                                                                                                                  4.3




      -0.5    -0.4   -0.2          0.3          1.1    4.9                               (        )
      -0.2    -0.6   -0.2          0.2          0.8    0.7                                            (           )
      -0.1    0.1    0.3           0.2          -6.6   -1.8                                                   (       )



      -0.4    0.6    -0.3          -0.4          0     0.6                               (        )
      0.3     0.8    0.1           1.1          0.5    0.1                                            (           )
      -0.2    -1.1   -0.6          -1.7         -4.6   -0.2                                                   (       )



      -0.3    -1.0   0.9           -1.5        -11.2   -1.9            (       )                          1
      -128    -62    86            -23          -133   -445       .(           )                          1


                                                                                   Hertel and others 2007.            :
                                                                                             15                   6:
                                                                                                                          .
                                                                                                          .




                                          .

                                                                                     .




      .

                                                                  )
          )                                                                                                   (
                                               .(4.3
                                                                                       2008                                                   142



                                                                                                   .

                   .



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                                                                                                                                  : 4.7
                               .
                                                                                              .(                              )


                         .



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                                                  (                             64 40                         (
                                           70                        50                                           .
.
                                                                                                                                  27
            .
                                                       35                                                             8                   .


                                              .(26)
                                       K                                                                                               



    1998   2001        1999            1998           2001          2000       2002
    64.4   62.7        56.3            40.4           41.2          24.1       25.5
                                                                                              .


    6.1    17.9         8.4            30.0           14.9          22.3       50.9                    .
    5.8    14.8        11.5             7.4           53.3                      7.2
                                                                                                                                   (
    35.1   18.9        25.8            28.8           18.8          30.1       29.1
    19.4   27.3        18.0            20.8            4.6          39.5        7.1
    33.6   21.1        36.3            13.0            8.4          8.0         5.6
           100.0       100.0           100.0          100.0                    100.0
143


                      (                                      )
          13.1       4.8    5.9            11.5    22.7          9.4        12.0


          19.9       10.7   20.8           18.9    27.3          28.4       12.9


          37.4       70.3   39.0           21.0    39.7          35.1       37.6


                                                                                .                                      ­
          8.8        3.6    8.1            10.3    22.0          10.2       11.3


          12.5       18.4   14.4            2.3     4.0          2.8            1.4
                                                                                              :
       Autors' calculations, based on data provided by Ataman Aksoy and Aylin Isik-Dikmelik, personal
      communication.
                                                     .                                        :
                                                   .(Teff)                                     (       )

                                                                        .


                                                                                                .
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                                                                          Chand and Kumar 2004. :



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                                                  2008                              152



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                                                                                              2008                                                 162


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                                                  . 2007/2006                                                                      30
                                                                                                :
      Bonjean, Combes, and Sturgess 2003;Food Security Research Project (FSRP) 2000;Christopher Gilbert,
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187


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                                                                                                         :
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                                                                          .
                                                                                                           7.2

                                                                                                       /
                                          ·                                    ·
                                                         .                                         (             )
                                          ·                                    ·
                                          ·
                                          ·
                                          ·                                    ·
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                                          ·                                    ·

                                          ·                      /             ·

                                          ·                                    ·       )
                                                                          /                    (
                                          ·                                    ·

                                                                 /             ·
                                                                               ·
                                                                          /
                                                                 /             ·
                                                                                                           :
      frican Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) 2004; Wright and Pardey 2006.
                          .                                                                                :
                                                          2008                          224


                  .(



.
                                           (7.6       )


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225

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          African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) 2004; Wright and Pardey 2006. :




                        .(7.7           )




                                                         .
                                                    (6                    )



          (        )"           "                                                                :7.7
                                                                      (73)
                                                                             "       "


                                                                                                     1996

                                    .
                                                                   2008                                      226


                                                               )           32                   1998
                                 .                                                               (




                                                                                                 (       )
                                                                                                     .


                ."       "
                                                  (            )
                                                                         Ekboir and others 2006. :




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                                                  .
                                                                                     (74)
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                             .

                                                      (76)




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227

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                         "                 "
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              1995            1975
                                                 70

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                                         35000
              .               6.2
                                         2004


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                         .
                                                                       .2006h          :
                                                                      2008                            228


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229


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                                                          .(83)
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                                                                                        :
                                                                      Birner and others (2006).
                                                                                          n.a.=
                                                                            .                     .. =
                                                                                            2008                              230



                                                                        77                                   "                "
                                                                     19


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                                                                        "                .   ."
                                                             1997


                          (touch screen)
      80
                  .
                                           M.S.Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) 2005.           :


              :


                                                                 ­          "
                               :     .                                  :       .                      "   ­
                    2008               232




            .   .
                                   :


                           .
.




                               .
    .




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233


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      .
            100                                                                     22                                            2006
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                                                                         .
                                                                                                      Bt
                                                          .
                                 Bt                                                              1996
                             Bt


                             .(5)
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                           (6)
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                                                                                                                              (
                                                                                                                    (                               )


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                                                                    <
                                                                   < 0       (            340)                     470

 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996                      (3)
                                                                                   (E.1          )
                                      James 2006 :
                                               =a. :
                                       200.000
                                                                                                                        (4)
                                                    .
                                                                                                                                               234



                                          (         ) ()
           Bt
                                                             2001
            80
                                                                     (                                        )
                            .(11)
                                                                         (                                                ) Bt
                                                                                                                                  44
                                                                                     (9)
                 ()                                                                            2006
    (12)
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                                                                                                                  .
                 (13)
                        ()




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                                                                             .(10)

.(15)


                                                              Bt                                                          :       .1


            65                      11        26       19       33                                    (           )
           198                      12        47       340      31                                        (           )

                                    2.2       2.7               2.4
                                                                                                                                       (   )

            58                      77        73       67       47
                                                                                                                                   (       )
                        .                                                                                                         :
                                                               Adapted from FAO 2004e.            .a
Qaim and others 2006. Other recent studies include Gandhi and Namboodiri 2006, who                .b
                   reported similar trends except for a much higher increase in profits (88 percent.)
Bennett, Morse, and Ismael 2006. Other studies point to high variability in yields (Gouse,        .c
                Kisten, and Jenkins 2003; Gouse and others 2005; Hofs, Fok, and Vaissayre 2006).
                                                                                                 -=




  .(16)                                                                                    (                                  )
                                                                              (       )
235



                                      (21)


                                                 :


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                             .                           (7                   )




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                                                           13                                         .
                                                .
                                                                               2008                               238


                                               .
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        Machakos                                                                            .

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                                 .                        .
                                                                                                  2008                                                             240


                                                  1.4


                 (8.1            )                                                                                  .
              Ganges                                                                                                 W                                 
Syr              /Amu Darya                    Yellow River                                                                 85
                     Chao Phraya                         Darya                               .
          Rio Grande                        Colorado River                             18
                             .
Aral                                                                                 .(10)                                                            40
Lake Chad                                                   Sea
       Lake Chapala
                                              .                                                  (2           )


.                                                                                                                                                              .


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              Data from Smakhtin, Revenga, and Dll 2004; map reprinted with permission from United Nations Development Programme 2006.:

                                                                                                                                                           :
                                                                                                                                                       )
                                                                                                                                  .(
241


                                           40               .(Sea


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                                  .



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 100         80    60      40         20        0
                                                                                                               .
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                                            (FAO) :


       http//www.fao.org/aglw/aquastat/main/index.stm
                                                                                                  .


                                                        :                                     )
       http://www.ocod.org/index-e.html
                                                                                         .(
                                                                                     )
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                                                               2008                                       242


                                                                                  .(
    .(19)


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                                                 .



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243


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                         .



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                                                                    Aral
                                   .                   .
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                                               .
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                                          .Syr Garya                                                       .
                                                       .                                      1999
                                                       13               Syr Darya
          Aral                    .


                                                                                              .
                                   .
                                                       .           Spilway
                                                           .
                                                                     Pala 2006; World Bank 2006q.      :
                     .


                                 .(22)
                                                                                   2008                                   244


      .


                                                                                                                      .
                                                          (26)                                   Office du Niger

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                                                                            (23)


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100       80           60       40             20
                        0            World Bank 2003d.    :       .(25)(4             )
                            "                            ":
          "                                    ".


                                                              .


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                        .

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245



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                                             2008                                              246




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247


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                     .




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                                                                        .
                                                             2008                          248



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                                             )
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                                                                      .(45)(7    )
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                                 .
249


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                                     .                                                 .
                                                                      ·
                                                                      ·
                                                     .
                                                                                                              .1991
                                                                                                                                       *
                                                                                                                                   :
                  154                                                                                                                  ·
                                                              .
      30                                                                                                                               ·


                                .            20
                                             V<TAC   s Standing Panel on Impact Assessment SPIA 1999; Waibel and Pemsl 1999.   :


              .




                                                                                                         (50)
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                                                                      2008                                    250


                                                   ..                                             : 8.4


                                  2003                                    )
                                                        ­ ( 2003                 500



­                   ­
             (52)
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                                                                                        (                 )


                                    2006


                                                                                                .(51)


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                                                                           2000

                                                           1992            1.600

                                                                           1.200
                                                                   2000
                                                                           800

                                                                           400

                                                                           0
                                        350 300 250 200 150 100 50

                                                                          Steinfeld and others 2006:
     .



                    .(2       )                                                                  .
31                                 54


                                  .(2          )
251

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                                    .                                                                             .
                                                                                                 56
                                                                                                          2008                                             252

                                                      .                                                               ) ecoagriculture
                                                                                                                                                   .

                                                                                                                                             .(62)(


              .                                                                     .


                                                .(8.5)
                                                                                                      .

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                                                                     ª        ª                    ª           
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      Lepers and others 2005. Reprinted with permission, © American Institute of Biological Sciences. :
                                                                                                                                                       :
                                                                                              .




                                                                                        .
253



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                                                                        .

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                         .


                                                                                   : 8.5




                                            .
                                                        .


                             .(65)                                            .
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                                                            .


              1980
               .                                                .


      .
                                                                                             2008                                    254

                             :                                         .

                                 .
                                                                                                                                 .

                                                :   )
    .(                                                                                           .



                 )                                                                       .

                         (
         (                                                         )
                                                                (66)
                                                            .

                                                                                                             World Bank 2007i.   :


                                                                               :
                                         (67)
                                     .



                                                                   .(68)                                                   .
                             .
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                                                                       .

­                                                                                  (         )
.                                                                                                             .

                                           ­ .
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         ­

                                                    )
                                            (
                     .

         (Fadama)                                                                                             .

             .                                                                                           .
255


               10
                                                                          2004                                          50
                                                                                                                                 .2006
                                                              60
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                                                                      )          )
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                                                                          .
                                                                               Parklands                                : 8.6



                                                          .
                            ­             ­                   )                                       .
                                                              (
                                                  .                       .
                                                                          20             10
                                                                                                               1975
                                              .
                                                                                                                             .
                                                              .                                           6        10
                                      .
                                                                          (                                                          )


      ­                                                                                           .            6        5
                    .


                            .                                                                                      .
      Larwanou, Adoulaye, and Reij 2006; Polgreen 2007; McGahuey and Winterbottom, personal :
                                                 communication, 2007; Reij, personal communication, 2007.




                                                                          .
                        .
                                                                                                 (70)
                                                                    2008                                                  256



.                                                                       .                                  40
                                                                                                          2
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                    .
257




                     .(82)
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                                             .                20                          33


      (8.7                               )                         .(81)
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                                                 .
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                                 .



                                                                                               .
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                 .
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                                                             .
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                                                                                  .
             .

                                                                                      16
                                                     :
                                                                                                       .
                                                                             2008                              258



                                         .                                            172



                                                                                            .
.

                                                                        ..
                             .
                                                                               )
                67       9
                                                                                    (1999       1992
                         .
                                                                                                76


                             .               12   6
                                                      World Bank 2004f; Ykhanbai and Bulgan 2006. :




                    .(8.8        )                                                                         .


                                                  .


                                                                                                           .
            .


        (                            )


                .                                               .(8.7                                  )
.


                                                                                                     : 8.8
        .
                                                                             400
                     .


    .                                                                                   .
259



                                              .           .



              .
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      .
                                                                                .


                                      .
                                                                                               .




                                                      .              )                         .
                                                                                                   (
                          .                                                         .


                                                              Hazell, Oram, and Chaherli 2001. :

                              .


                      .                                              .


                  "                       "                           .
                                  "               "
                          .                                                         .
                                                                                :
                          .
          .
                                                                                                       2008                                          260

          .                                      10
 2002                                                                                                      .(83)
                                    2005
 1                  )              540
                             (85)
                            .     (
                                (PES)                                                                         .

                               .                                                               )
                                                                                                                                (            ­


                                                                                       .
                           ) (Silvopastoral)
                 (86)
                .       (8.3                 )(                                                    .
                                                                           .
                                             .
                                                 :8.3                                                         .                              (PES)
                                                                                                              (PES)
                                         :
                                                                                           (                                )
                                                                                                                           .


                                                                                                                       (PES)
                                                                                                                                    )
                                                                                                                                        .(
                                                                               (PES)
                                                                                                                          :
                                                                                                                                                 1
                                                                                  .
                                                                                                                                                 2

                                                                                  .
                                                                                                                                                 3
300 200 100             0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600                                                            .


 V<Computations from Silvopastoral Project GIS mapping data   :                                        .                                     (PES)
                                    by Pagiola and others (forthcoming).
                                                                                      (PES)
 Not es : Land use changes by poor and nonpoor Silvopastoral
 Project participants in Matigus-Ro Blanco, Nicaragua (2003­05).                                2005                    1977
 Areas converted to other uses with net land-use change of less than 30
 hectares are not shown. The poor are de. ned as households below the
 national poverty line, using household survey data on income from all
                                                                                               270
 sources.
261



                          .                                                    (PES)

                      )
                  )                           (                                         .(                        )
      .                                   (
                                                                       (PES)

      .                                                                         .



      .                                                                             .

                  1992                                                                                      (         )
          .                                               .(11             ) (PES)




                                              .              (Scole Té)                            .
                                                                                                           (Chiapas)
                              ­           ­           ­
                                                                                                       .
                                                  .
                                                                                                           3.30
                                                                                                                          60
                                                                 .(87)                           1.800                    300

                                  .
                                                                          (                                     40)
              .



                                                                   .
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                                                                                        < ð]v'Ö]<hçßq<íéÏèÊù]<íÏß¹]<á],×e
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                                                                                                           < 1998<á^jSÆ Î
                                                                                                  < è...^ÓÖ]æ<íéßéiøÖ]<^ÓèÚ_
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                                                                                                                    < 1997<æ e

                                                                                                         :
      World Bank (2005p) for Zambia, World Bank (2005n) for Ethiopia, World Bank (2003e) Kyrgyzstan, World
      Bank (2003a) for Azerbaijan, World Bank (2005k) for El Salvador, Escobal (2001) for Pero, Davis and others
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                                                                             49 47
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                                                                                                                     WDR 2008 team; World Bank 2006z.         :
                                                                                                                                    2006
                                           .                                                                                            9.2                :


                                  .                                                                                                              :9.3
             %                                                     %                                                   %                                   
                                                      < 80                                                < 80                                             < 60
                                                         <                                                   <
                                                                                                                                                                      <


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                                                      < 20                                                < 20                                             < 20
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                                                         <                                                   <                                             < 10
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                       Øè] Ö]         ^Óè çÒ                           ÔéSÓ¹]                ^éfÚçÖçÒ                         ,Þøè^i               ,ß ]
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          Census data (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico); Labor Force Surveys (Colombia,         :
          Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Pakistan, Thailand, Venezuela) from the International Labour Organization Web site at http://www.ilo.org. National Sample
                                                                                                                 Survey data reported in Glinkskaya and Jalan 2005.




                                  60                                                                                       15
                                                               2008                                               272




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                                                                                                                        2001                     1989
                                                                                                                                         World Bank 2003c.                      :

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                                                            WDR2008 team :                                                     58
                                                              9.2                       :
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                                        WDR 2008 team, using Rural Investment Climate Assessment data.       :
                                                                    ª                                                  
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                   2002<],ßÆæ_                                             2002<ÔéSÓ¹]                                                    1999<,ß ]




          20      15   10           5   0            12           10             8             6   4          2                      10      8     6     4        2

                                                   ÌèÖ]<»<êÂ]...^Ö]< Æ<qù] <<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<       <<<<<<<<<<<<<<êÂ]...^Ö]<qù]



                                                                                                                                                 WDR 2008 team.   :
                                                                                                                                      .9.2                        :
                                                                                                                       2008                                                              280

                                                                                                                                                                    :9.9
           2002<],ßÆæ_                                                  2002 ÔéSÓ¹]                                                        1999<,ß ]




20        15        10          5   0                   12     10          8         6        4       2                       10              8            6          4       2

                                            ÌèÖ]<»<êÂ]...^Ö]< Æ<qù]<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<êÂ]...^Ö]<qù]<<
                                                                                                                                                            WDR 2008 team.         :
                                                                                                                                                  .9.2                             :




                       .
                                                                          
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                                                                                                                                                .                                      30
      )
                                                                                                                                                                              20
                                30                                     (9.1
                                1996              1988

                                                                                                     .(30)                                                                .
           .(9.11               )
                                              :                                                                                                                :9.10

                                                                            120                                                                                                    160
                                                                            100                                                                                                    140
                                                                                                                                                                                   120
                                                                            80
                                                                                                                                                                                   100
                                                                            60                                                                                                     80
                                                                                                                                                                                   60
                                                                            40
                                                                                                                                                                                   40
                                                                            20                                                                                                     20
                                                                            0                                                                                                      0
2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984                                1980 1976                2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984                                             1980 1976
               < OE]...æ,ß ]<       <<<<<<<<^Óè...^jçÒ<                                                   ÷^Ûéi]çq <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Øè] Ö]<
                 ...æ^Ë×SÖ]<         <<<<<<<<<<<<<<ÔéSÓ¹]<                                                   ^eçÒ<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<á^ÓéßéÚæ,Ö]<íè...çã¶<
                                                                                                       :
Brazil: Fundaçao Getulio Vargas Estatisticas Agricolas; other countries: CEPAL, Statistical Yearbook for Latin
America and the Caribbean, various years.
                                               .                                                       :
281


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                                                                                        230


                                                                                                       59
                                                           9.8                                                            7


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                                 :                                                                                                :9.11


                                                                      250                                                                        350
                                                                                                                                                 300
                                                                      200
                                                                                                                                                 250
                                                                      150                                                                        200

                                                                      100                                                                        150
                                                                                                                                                 100
                                                                      50
                                                                                                                                                 50
                                            0                                                                     0
      1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960                               1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960
      1999 1994 1989 1984 1979 1974 1969 1964                               1999 1994 1989 1984 1979 1974 1969 1964

            < <^éßéÒ<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Þçi<<<<<<<<^éÏèÊ_<hçßq<                      < <°f×ËÖ]<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<,ß ]<<<<<<<<<<<<<<á^jSÒ^e<
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             .                                                                                                                               :
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                                                                            2008                              282




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                                                           .
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  2800 2300 1800       1300      800        300     -200
         < ...÷æ,Ö^e<ØÚ^Ã×Ö<íÊ^­¹]<íÛéÏÖ]                          .                                  ­
                                                       :
The WDR 2008 team has used data from the
Indonesia Rural Investment Climate Survey (World
Bank 2006).
                                          :
                  .


                            .     22              11

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                                                                                           150


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                      400
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                                                            Araujo, de Janv, and Sadoulet 2002. :
                                                                                                :
                                                       1990                                      15000
                                                                                                  .2000
          1993                            .
                                                                              2008                                               284


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                                                                                                          (               )
1992                 28
                             2002                  40                                                                 .




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                                                                                                              0
                  64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18
                                                        l]çßSÖ^e<ÛÃÖ]<
Population census data for Brazil (2000), Cambodia (1998), Kenya (1999), Mexico (2000), Vietnam :
                                                                               (1999), and Zambia (2000).
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                                                   .(2007) 2008 WDR                                   2000


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287



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                         (54)
                                  "Bolsa Familia"                                                        5




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                    19
                                                                             60
9.8
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                                                                                          :

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      Edmonds and Pavcnink 2005; Emerson and Portela Souza 2003; Gunnarsson, Orazem, and Sedlacek :      
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                                                        (60)




      .                                                                                               60
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                           .                                                        ) CIRAD
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Asya Akhlaque, Kym Anderson, Richard Anson, Asian
Farmers
                                                                                                        :
Association, Doyle Baker, Shawki Barghouti, Brad Barham,      , Ursula Aldana, Harold
Chris Barrett, Priya Basu, Peter Bazeley, Pierre Bélanger,    Alderman, Mubarik Ali, Julian Alston, Jock R. Anderson,
Deepak Bhattasali, Hans Binswanger, Pierre-Marie Bosc,        Gustavo Anriquez, John Baffes, Arturo Barrera, Kaushik
Daniel Bradley, Karen McConnell Brooks, Michael               Basu, Julio A. Berdegué, Dirk Bezemer, Estelle Biénabe,
Bruentrup,                                                    Eran Binenbaum, Genny Bonomi, Norman Borlaug, Colin
Mark E. Cackler, Michael Carter, Rocio Castro, Hernan         Bradford, Sumiter S. Broca, Steven Buck, Piet Buys, Gero
Ceballos, Robert Chapman, Robert S. Chase, B. Chinsinga,      Carletto, Romain Charnay, Carol Chehab, Shaohua Chen,
Ken Chomitz, CIRAD (Agricultural Research Developing          Manuel Chiriboga, Gilles Cliché, Hugo Contreras, Katia
Countries), C.S. Clark, CORDAID (Netherlands), Eric           Covarrubias, Octavio Damiani, Jose Eli da Veiga, Benoit
Crawford, Dana Dalrymple, Salah Darghouth, Charlotte          Daviron, Benjamin Davis, Junior Davis, Alan de Brauw,
De Fraiture, Cornelis de Haan, Klaus Deininger, Freddy        Niama Nango Dembélé, Priya Deshingkar, Octavio Diaz,
Destrait, Jean-Jacques Dethier, Xinshen Diao, Eugenio Diaz-   Stefania DiGiuseppe, Andrew Dorward, Chris Dowswell,
Bonilla, Gerhard Dieterle, Charles E. Di Leva, Ariel Dinar,   Svetlana Edmeades, Germn Escobar, Cathy Farnworth,
Josué Dioné, Shanthi Divakaran, Dutch Actors involved         John Farrington, Céline Ferre, Michel Fok, William Foster,
in Agriculture and Development, Mark Dutz, Carl Eicher,       Rachel Gardner, Paul Glewwe, Michael Goodman, Peter
Allison Evans, Marcel Fafchamps, Shenggen Fan, Jean Fares,    Hazell, Spencer Henson, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Terry Hurley,
Hilary Sims Feldstein, Erick Fernandes, Tony Fischer, Ade     Jenni James, Esteban Jara, David R. Just, Panayotis Karfakis,
Freeman, German Development Organizations, Andrew D.          Larry Karp, Jonathan Kydd, Peter Lanjouw, Susana Lastarria-
Goodland, Ashok Gulati, Jim Harvey, Yujiro Hayami, Willem     Cornhiel, Qiang Li, Ethan Ligon, Chengfang Liu, Luis
Heemskerk, Richard Henry, Hans Herren, Ulrich Hess,           Felipe Lopez-Calva, Niels P. Louwaars, Mark Lundy, Sarah
Melissa Hidrobo, John Hoddinott, Heike Hoef. er, Masayoshi    Lyon, Shiva Makki, Carlos Mladinic, Félix Modrego, Siwa
Honma, International Federation of Agricultural Producers,    Msangi, Hideyuki Nakagawa, Roberto Martinez Nogueira,
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid      Susan Olivia, Jorge Ortega, Keijiro Otsuka, Philip G. Pardey,
Tropics, International Food Policy Research Institute,        Eija Pehu, Prabhu Pingali, Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Carlos
International                                                 Pomareda, Colin Poulton, Jules Pretty, Felicity Proctor,
Livestock Research Institute, Steven Jaffee, Willem           Julian Quan, Esteban Quinones, Catherine Ragasa, Vijayendra
G. Janssen, Ravi Kanbur, Kapil Kapoor, Rabih H. Karaky,       Rao, Martin Ravallion, Thomas Reardon, Claudia
Omar Karapasan, Amir Kassam, Roy Katayama, John Kerr,         Ringler, Rudi Rocha, Cristin Rodriguez, Lourdes Rodriguez-
Nadim Khouri, Renate Kloeppinger-Todd, Anjini Kochar,         Chamussy, Mark W. Rosegrant, Scott Rozelle, Elisabeth
Masami Kojima, Sergey Kononov, Bonwoo Koo, Holger A.          Sadoulet, William Saint, Prem Sangraula, Ramiro
Kray, Alexander Kremer, Jean Marcel Laferrière, Eric          Sanhueza, Denis Sautier, Alexander Schejtman, Kate Sebastian,
Lambin,                                                       John M. Staatz, Kostas Stamoulis, Timothy Sulser,
Florence Lasbennes, Daniel Lederman, Luis-Felipe Lopez        Nabs Suma, Luca Tasciotti, Timothy Thomas, Isabelle Vagneron,
Calva, Mark Lundy, Kseniya Lvovsky, Eric Manes, William       Alberto Valdés, Cornelius van der Meer, Dominique
Martin, Alex McCalla, Marie-Rose Mercoiret, Jeanot Minla      Van Der Walle, Hester Vermeulen, Thomas Walker, Steve
Mfou'ou, Stephen D. Mink, Donald Mitchell, Michael Morris,    Wiggins, John Wilkinson, Mette Wik, Paul Winters, Stanley
Megumi Muto, Ijaz Nabi, Rakesh Nangia, John Nash,             Wood, Jim Woodhill, Takashi Yamano, Alberto Zezza, and
David Nielson, Ian Noble, Bonny Ntare, Netherlands-based      Linxiu Zhang.
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Ospina, G.B. Oxfam, Stefano P. Pagiola, Lucian Peppelenbos,
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Carlos Sere, Shekhar Shah, Melinda Smale, Jimmy Smith,
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Johan Swinnen, Erik Thorbecke, C. Peter Timmer, Rob Tripp,
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                                                                                             (OECD)              .53
                                 .2007                 .1                                                .        
                                                .2               .                                                 .54
  :                                                          55. Anderson, Feder, and Ganguly 2006.
        (EAP)                            (SA)                56. de Gorter and Swinnen 2002.
 (                            (MENA)                                                                               .57
                       (ECA)                                   C.Subramaniam.                         .        
                               (101)           (LAC)                                                           
 3. Evenson and Gollin 2003; IRRI pers. comm. and                                                      
     CIMMYT pers. comm.                                                                                          
 4. FAO 2006a.                                                                                  (Visvanathan 2003)
 5. Based on studies of decomposition of agricultural        58. Bates 1981.
     growth by Fan and Pardey 1997, Huang and                              Djurfeldt, Jirstroml, and Larsson 2005 .59
     Rozelle 1995, McKinsey and Evenson 2003, and                                                                 
     Mundlak, Larson, and Butzer 2004.                                        (1) :                              
 6. Bruinsma 2003.                                                                       (2)                      
 7. Ruttan 2002; Timmer 2002.                                                                                     
 8. Mundlak, Larson, and Butzer 2004.                                                                         
                                                   .9                          .                                  
 2003                 1995   2007                            60. Suri 2006.
                          .2007                              61. Anderson 2004.
 10. Fan, Zhang, and Zhang 2002; McKinsey and                62. Mercoiret 2005.
     Evenson 2003; Rozelle and others 2003.                  63. Bates 1981.
 11. Huang and Rozelle 1996.                                                                                  
 12. Lusigi and Thirtle 1997; Thirtle, Hadley, and           1. Byerlee, Diao, and Jackson 2005.
     Towsend 1995.                                                                                  .2006           .2
 13. Binswanger, Khandker, and Rosenzweig 1993;              3. Ravallion, Chen, and Sangraula 2007.
     Fan, Zhang, and Zhang 2002; Mundlak, Larson, and        4. Ravallion, Chen, and Sangraula 2007.
     Butzer 2004.                                            5. Yang 1999; Ravallion and Chen 2007.
 14. Foster and Rosenzweig 1996.                                                                               .6
 15. Frisvold and Ingram 1995.                                       2.15                                
 16. Fan, Zhang, and Zhang 2004.                                                                       1.08
 17. Ali and Byerlee 2002; Huang and Rozelle 1995.                 .                                            
 18. World Bank 2006r.                                       :                  :                                   .7
 19. A reliable growing period is defined as greater than                   Hr "H,Hu"            .               
     150 days.                                                           Sr Su                                    
 20. Binswanger and Pingali 1988.                                  t                                              
 21. Morris and others 2007.                                                                                  .   
 22. Henao and Baanante 2006.
 23. Köhlin 2006.
 24. Chamberlin, Pender, and Yu 2006.
                                                     .25
                                             
   .                                   
 26. Based on Ali 2006.
 27. Joshi, Singh Birthal, and Minot 2006.                   8. Renkow 2005.
 28. Ali 2006.                                                                                      .9
 29. World Bank 2007a.                                                                             
 30. Agricultural GDP in constant 2000 reais (Instituto                                            
     de Pes-quisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA) 2006.            Minot, Baulch, and Epprecht 2003 for  
                                                                              2008                                356

    Warren 2006 for Stern 2006,                          .64    31. World Bank 2005j.
                                                                32. Aldana 2006.
                                                                33. World Bank 2006f.
CO2                                                             34. World Bank 2006e.
                                                                35. Ali 2006; Dinham 2003.
                                                                36. Delgado and others 1999.
                              .IPCC                             37. De Haan and others 2001.
65. Darwin and others 1995, as reported in                      38. World Bank 2007b.
    Schmidhuber and Tubiello               ; Fischer, Shah,     39. FAO 2004d.
    and Velthuizen 2002; Reilly and others 1996.                40. FAO 2004d.
66. Fischer, Shah, and Velthuizen 2002, as reported by          41. FAO 2004d.
    Schmid-huber and Tubiello               .                   42. Belasco 2006.
                                                         .67    43. Bruinsma 2003; FAO 2006d; Rosegrant and others
                                     2015 2006                      2006b.
                                                                44. World Bank 2006d.
                                 .                              45. World Bank 2007i.
68. Rosegrant and others 2006a.                                 46. Barreto and others 2006.
69. Schmidhuber 2007.                                           47. Sauven 2006.
70. FAO 2000.                                                                                 TFPRT                .48
71. U.S. Congressional Research Service 2004.                                                                IFPRI
                           .2006               .72                                                              
                                                                                                                  
73. Baffes 2006.
                                                                                                            .     
   .2004                                       .74
                                                                6.1                         (2004)                
                          .2004                          .75         2050        8.2           2000              
76. Lucas, Jones, and Hines 2006.                                                                                 
77. Murray 2007.                                                                          2005                  
78. Cassman and others 2003; Reynolds and Borlaug                               .                         
    2006.                                                               )                                         
79. Bruinsma 2003.                                                      (FAO)                          (          
80. Cassman and others 2003.                                                       (FAO 2006/2030/2050
81. Alexandratos 2005.                                                                                .        
82. Alexandratos 2005.                                                                               2050             
                                                 B                                                                
                                                           .1                 IFPRI  IMPACT- WATER 
                                                                      2004 (IEA)                           
                                .                                             .                                  
                             .2007              .2                                                                
          .2007 (                 ) Garten Rothkopf .3                                                            
  ) Garten Rothkopf 2004                              .4        .                                                 
                                   .2007 (                                                                        
5. Koplow 2006.                                                                     .IPCCB2              
                                         .2007            .6                                                     .49
                             .2007              .7                                                     .  
                                         .2007            .8    50. Rosegrant and others 2006b.
                                                                51. Cassman and others 2003.
9. Schmidhuber 2007.
                                                                                                    .2007          .52
                                       .2007             .10    53. Scherr and Yadav 1996.
                                                         .11    54. Sebastian 2007.
     15  10                                                                 2007                                   .55
                                                                            IAASTD2007                    
                               (            )                                                      .2006          
                                                                           .2007                                   .56
                                            .                                            .2006                     .57
                           .2007               .12                                                  .2006          .58
                           .2007               .13                         .2007                                   .59
                                                         .14                             .2006                     .60
                                                                61. Stern 2006.
                          .                                                            .2007                       .62
15. Farrell and others 2006; Hill and others 2006;
                                                                63. Parry, Rosenzweig, and Livermore 2007; Warren
    Kartha 2006; review of studies reported in
                                                                    2006.
    Worldwatch Institute 2006 and Kojima, Mitchell,
    and Ward 2006.
357

 18. Deere 2005; Dolan and Sorby 2003; Newman                   16. Koplow 2006.
     2001; Zhang and others 2007.(4             ).              17. Commission of the European Communities 2006.
                                                          .19   18. Turner and others 2007.
                                      .                         19. FBOMS (Fórum Brasileiro de ONGs e
      2000                                            2000          Movimentos Sociais) 2006.
                                   (                        )   20. Worldwatch Institute 2006.
                             .(EAP)                             21. United Nations Conference on Trade and
                                                                    Development (UNCTAD) 2006b; Worldwatch
             .                               66                     Institute 2006.
 97                                                  :          22. Kojima, Mitchell, and Ward 2006.
                                              
                                                                                                                           
                                                       (SSA)
                                                                                                                   .1
                                                            
                                                                                           "         "               
                     55                                
                                                                                                         .(2         )
                                                                                                                         .2
                                                                                                   )                 
 .                      85                                                               .                    (  
               (MENA)                                           3. De Weerdt 2006; Krishna and others 2006;
 2007                                  47                           Larwanou, Abdoulaye, and Reij 2006.
                                .2008                           4. Peters 2006; World Bank 2006n.
               Katz 2003; Lastarria-Cornhiel 2006; .20          5. Du, Park, and Wang 2005; Foster and Rosenzweig
 Deere .                                                            2004; Kijima and Lanjouw 2004; Lanjouw 2007;
                                                   2005             Lokshin, Bontch-Osmolovski, and Glinskaya 2007;
                         .                                          McCulloch, Weisbrod, and Timmer 2007.
 21. Barrett and others 2005; Haggblade, Hazell, and            6. Beegle, De Weerdt, and Dercon 2006; De Weerdt
     Reardon forthcoming; Otsuka and Yamano 2006.                   2006; Krishna 2006b; McCulloch, Weisbrod, and
                  )    66                            .22            Timmer 2007; Nargis and Hossain 2006.
     2007       2008                        33                  7. Davis and others 2007; Deichmann, Shilpi, and
 Davis and others 2007: (           )    .(                         Vakis 2006; Haggblade, Hazell, and Reardon 2005.
                                   Reardon and others.          8. Mansuri 2007b; Quisumbing, Estudillo, and Otsuka
 23. de Brauw and Harigaya (             ); Macours and             2004.
     Vakis 2006; Ratha and Shah 2006; Rogaly and Rafi           9. Lucas 1987; Mansuri 2007b; McCarthy and others
     que 2003; World Bank 2005a.
                                                                    2006;Rozelle, Taylor, and de Brauw 1999.
 24. Anríquez and Bonomi 2007; Anríquez 2003;
                                                                10. Knight and Song 2003 for China and World Bank
     Lohmar, Rozelle, and Zhao 2001; World Bank
                                                                    2006n for Malawi. Calculations for Mexico based
     2006s; World Bank 2005a.
 25. Otsuka and Yamano 2006 show evidence from                      on ENIGH (                                             
     Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Thailand.                     2004).
                                                          .26                                                          .11
    )                                                                          .                                     
         Stark, helmenstein, and Prskawetz 1997                                                                        .12
         Boucher, Stark and Taylor 2005                                                                              
                    (                                                             (4               )                 
                                                                                                       
                                                 .                                                    .         
 27. Anríquez and Bonomi 2007.                                                                                         .13
 28. de Janvry and others 2006; Gertler, Martinez, and                                                               
     Rubio-Codina 2006; Mansuri 2007a; Taylor and                                                                   
     Mora 2006; Yang 2006; Yang and Choi                                                                     
     forthcoming.                                                                      .                   
 29. Frankenberg, Smith, and Thomas 2003; Macours                                                                  
                                                                        .                                    
     and Swin-nen 2006; Owen 1966.
                                                                                                                       .14
 30. Jalan and Ravallion 2002.                                       .                                 
 31. de Janvry and Sadoulet 2006b; Singh, Squire, and                                            ""                    .15
     Strauss 1986.                                                                                           
                                                          .32             .                    (              )      
 Leibenstein )                                                  16. http://faostat.fao.org.
                                                   (1986                                                             .17
 33. de Janvry, Fafchamps, and Sadoulet 1991; Von                                                          
     Braun, Hotchkiss, and Innmink 1989.                                                                        
                                                                                    .(               32       54)    
                                                                         2008                                 358

54. Jacobs 2002; Quisumbing and others 2001; World         34. Bandiera and Rasul 2006; Basu 2006b; Conley and
   Bank 2006n.                                                 Udry 2004; Dufl o, Kremer, and Robinson 2006;
55. Fafchamps, Udry, and Czukas 1998; Lybbert and              Foster and Rosenzweig 1995.
   others 2004; Rogg 2006; Seré 2006.                      35. Basu 2006a; Bourguignon and Chiappori 1994;
56. Davis and others 2007; Zezza and others 2007.              Carter and Katz 1997; Goldstein and Udry 2006;
57. Fafchamps and Minten 2002; La Ferrara 2003;                McPeak and Doss 2006; Udry 1996; Udry and
   Munshi 2003; Putnam, Leonardi, and Nanetti 1993;            others 1995.
   World Bank 2006s.                                       36. Baland and Platteau 1996; McCarthy 2004; Ostrom
58. Agoua, Mercoiret, and Ouikoun 2000; Bernard and            1990.
   others 2006; Kaburie and Ruvuga 2006.                   37. Dufl o and Udry 2004.
                      de Janvry and Sadoulet 2004 .59                                                .38
                         (SERP) 2006.                                                                       
60. Carter and Barrett 2006; Dercon 2004; Hoddinott                                          .(Newman 2001)
   2006; Lybbert and others 2004; McPeak 2004.             39. Katz 1995; Von Braun, Hotchkiss, and Innmink
61. Christiaensen and Sarris 2007; Christiaensen and           1989; Von Braun and Webb 1989; Warner and
   Subbarao 2005; Dercon, Hoddinott, and                       Campbell 2000.
   Woldehanna 2005; González and Lopez 2007;               40. Hall and Patrinos 2006; World Bank 2003i; Zezza
   Krishna 2006a.                                              and others 2007.
62. Alderman and Paxson 1992; Binswanger and               41. World Bank 2003i.
   Rosenzweig 1993; Fafchamps and Pender 1997.                           Jayne and others 2006b. 42
63. Gaiha and Thapa(          ); Rasmussen 2004;                                                              
   Santos 2006.                                                                                               
64. Gaiha and Thapa (          ).                                     .                                      
65. Cavendish 1999.                                                           )                               
66. Alderman, Hoddinott, and Kinsey 2006; de Janvry        (Yamano and                              
   and others 2006; Jensen 2000; Thomas and others                                               Jayne 2004).
   2004.                                                   43. Gillespie 2006; Thirumurthy, Graff-Zivin, and
67. Barrett 2007; Behrman and Deolalikar 1990;                 Goldstein 2005.
   Dercon and Krishnan 2000; Fafchamps 1998.                                            40                     .44
68. Anríquez and Bonomi 2007; Von Braun 2003.                 Monasch and Boeram 2004                         
               Berry and Cline 1979; Carter 1984 .69                                                   
                                                                          .                                   
Assuncao )                                                 45. Anríquez and Bonomi 2007.
   Benjamin 1995 (                    ) (and Braido        46. Andre and Platteau 1998; de Janvry, Sadoulet, and
                                                               Finan 2005; Otsuka and Yamano 2006.
Heltberg )                                                 47. Benfi ca 2006.
                                  (1998: Kimhi 2006                                                            .48
Feder 1985; Kevane 1996; World Bank 2003g; .70                                                              
                 Zimmerman and Carter 2003.                                                                 
     :                                                     Johnston and      .                     
covariant                                                                                     Kilby 1975
(Binswanger and McIntire 1987; Binswanger and                                                                 
                                  Rosenzweig 1993).         Vollrath 2007            .                        
71. Karp 2007a.                                                                                            
                                                    .72                                        .             
                                                                                                               .49
                                                                                                          
                   )                                                                   1977                 
(                                                          Anriquez and Bonomi ) .                   
                                                                                                        .(2007
                                                           50. Zezza and others 2007.
                                                                                                               .51
                                                                                                              
Vranken and )                                                                                            
                                        (others 2007          .                                       
                                                           52. Boucher, Barham, and Carter 2005; De Ferranti
1.      FAO 2002.                                              and others 2004; Macours, de Janvry, and Sadoulet
2.      FAO 2006c.                                             2004; Rao and Walton 2004.
                                                      .3   53. Agarwal 1994; Deere and Doss 2006; Deere and
                                                               León 2003; World Bank 2005k.
359

 17. Anderson, Martin, and van der Mensbrugghe                                                           
     2006a; FAO 2005b.                                                                                   
 18. Aziz and others 2001.                                                                               
 19. Baffes 2005.                                              .                                         
 20. Anderson and Valenzuela forthcoming.                                                                .4
 21. Alston, Sumner, and Brunke 2007.                                                             .     
 22. Panagariya 2005; Tangerman 2005.                     5. Sen 1981.
 23. Ashraf, McMillan, and Zwane 2005.                    6. Sanchez and others 2005.
 24. Anderson, Martin, and van der Mensbrugghe            7. Katz 1994.
     2006a.
                                                          UNICEF)                                    FAO 2006c; .8
 25. Hertel and others 2007.
                                                                                                          2007.
 26. Ravallion and Lokshin 2004.
                                                          9. Alderman 2005.
 27. Baffes and Gardner 2003.
 28. Ivanic and Martin 2006.                                                                                      .10
 29. Hertel and Reimer 2005; Winters 2002.                                                                     
 30. Minot and Goletti 2000.                                                                                   
 31. Ravallion 1990.                                                                 .                  
 32. Nicita 2004.                                         11. http://www.gainhealth.org.
 33. Bussolo and others 2006; Isik-Dikmelik 2006;         12. Darnton-Hill and others 2005.
     Klytchnikova and Diop 2006.                                                                                    
 34. Martin and Ng 2004.                                  1. Hayami and Godo 2004.
 35. Anderson, Martin, and van der Mensbrugghe 2006a                           .2006b                             .2
     Martin and Anderson 2006; Polaski 2006.                                .2006b                            .2 .3
 36. Anderson, Martin, and Valenzuela 2006; Hertel        4. Baffes and de Gorter 2005.
     and Keeney 2005.                                     5. Schiff and Valdés 1992.
 37. Anderson and Valenzuela forthcoming.                                                .Easterly 2006           .6
 38. Laborde and Martin 2006.                             7. Townsend 1999.
 39. Martin and Anderson 2006.                                                                                    .8
 40. Hertel and others 2007.                                                                             
 41. Staatz and Dembele 2007; World Bank 2004c.                                                                
 42. World Bank 2004c.                                                                     .         
 43. World Bank 2004c.                                                                                         .9
 44. Baffes and Gardner 2003.                                           .                              
 45. Winters 2006.                                        10. Anderson forthcoming.
 46. FAO 2006b; Winters 2006.                                    Anderson and Martin 2005; Bouët 2006a; .11
 47. Foster and Valdés 2005.                                                                               
 48. Baunsgaard and Keen 2005.                                         15 "Bouet 2006 b"              
 49. World Bank 2000a.                                                                                         
                                                    .50                                                        
 1                                 .                                                                       
                                                                                           .   
                                  1                                           66                    
                                                                                                         
                                                                 )  15                           36            
           .                                                                           55                 (
 51. International Monetary Fund 2005.                                                      8                  
 52. World Bank 2004b.                                                                        90               
 53. Ashraf, McMillan, and Zwane 2005.                                                              .  4
 54. Coady, Dorosh, and Minten 2007.                                                     17                     .12
 55. Binswanger 1989; Schiff and Montenegro 1997.         2015          26                       2005 
 56. López and Galinato 2006.                             Van Der Mensbrugghe 2006 . martin, anderson
 57. Fan, Sukhadeo, and Rao 2004.                             )                                               
 58. Chand and Kumar 2004.                                                                         .(11        
 59. Allcott, Lederman, and López 2006; Esteban and       13. Anderson, Martin, and Valenzuela 2006; Francois,
     Ray 2006.                                                Van Meijl, and Van Tongeren 2005; Hertel and
       .                         Bardhan 2002      .60        Keeney 2005,.
 61. Lederman, Loayza, and Soares 2006.                   14. Anderson and Valenzuela forthcoming.
                                                          15. Anderson, Martin, and van der Mensbrugghe
 1. Fafchamps, Minten, and Gabre-Madhin 2005.                 2006a.
 2. Kohls and Uhl 1985.                                   16. Baffes 2007.
                                                                         2008                                 360

26. Akiyama, Baffes, and Varangis 2001; Shepherd           3. Shepherd 1997.
   and Farolfi 1999.                                                                     .4
27. Winter-Nelson and Temu 2002.                                                  (KACE)
28. Bonjean, Combes, and Sturgess 2003; Poulton                                   (SIMA)
   2007; Tsch-irley, Zulu, and Shaffer 2004.                   )                      
29. Poulton 2007.                                                                   :  
30. Bonjean, Combes, and Sturgess 2003.                    (http://www.manobi.sn/sites/?M=6&SM=20&IDPresse=22).
31. Regmi and Gehlar 2005.                                 5. Fafchamps, Minten, and Gabre-Madhin 2005; Kleih,
32. CII-McKinsey & Co. 1997.                                   Oko-boi, and Janowski 2004; Temu and Msuya
                                 78                  .33       2004.
                                                           6. Gabre-Madhin and Goggin 2005; United Nations
 .(2007           )                                            Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
34. Shilpi and Umali-Deininger 2006.                           2006a.
35. Reardon and Berdegué 2006.                                                                                  .7
36. Asosiación Nacional de Tiendas de Autoservicios y                           (                            )
   Distri-buidoras (ANTAD) 2005; Goldman and                        2004              1952                   
   Vanhonacker 2006; Rear-don, Pingali, and                World )              54                            
   Stamoulis 2006.                                                                               (Bank 2005 f
37. See Reardon and Berdegué 2002 for Latin                                                              .2006
   America, Ber-degué and others 2005 for Central          8. Narender 2006; Sahadevan 2005.
   America, Dries, Reardon, and Swinnen 2004 for                                                                .9
   Central and Eastern Europe, Schwentesius and                            guar                          
   Gómez 2002 for Mexico, Reardon and Farina 2002           .  guar                                     
   for Brazil, and Weatherspoon and Reardon 2003 for       10. Dana, Gilbert, and Shim 2006; Dana, Gravelet-
   Africa.                                                     Blondin, and Sturgess 2007; Dorward, Kydd, and
38. Reardon and Berdegué 2006.                                 Poulton 2006.
39. Berdegué and others 2005; Boselie, Henson, and         11. Avalos-Sartorio 2006; Hazell, Sheilds, and Sheilds
   Weather-spoon 2003; Dries, Reardon, and Swinnen             2005; Mitchell and Le Vallee 2005,.
   2004; Natawidjaja and others 2006.                      12. Cummings, Rashid, and Gulati 2006; Dorward,
40. Similar fi gures have been obtained in Costa Rica          Kydd, and Poulton 2006; Umali-Deininger and
   and Brazil (Reardon and Berdegué 2006).                     Deininger 2001.
41. Boselie, Henson, and Weatherspoon 2003; Dries          13. Dawe 2001; Myers 2006; Timmer 2002.
   and Rear-don 2005; Manalili 2005.                       14. Dorward, Kydd, and Poulton 2006.
42. Reardon and Berdegué 2006; Reardon and others          15. Byerlee, Jayne, and Myers 2006.
   1999.                                                                                                      .16
43. Modern retailers in Vietnam signaled to consumers                                                         
   their supply chain food-safety assurance procedures                      .                               
   during and after the avian fl u crisis, which won       17. World Bank 2006p.
   many consumers away from wet markets and into                                                       .18
   supermarkets in Ho Chi Minh City (Phan and                                                                 
   Reardon 2006).                                               .(Poulton 2007).                              
44. These studies looked at tomatoes in Guatemala          19. Poulton 2007.
   (Hernán-dez, Reardon, and Berdegué 2007),               20. Mayer and Fajarnes 2005.
   Indonesia (Natawidjaja and others 2006), and                        "                "                   .21
   Nicaragua (Balsevich, Berdegué, and Reardon                        "              "                
   2006); kale in Kenya (Neven, Odera, and Reardon                    "                      "           
   2006); lettuce in Guatemala (Flores, Reardon, and       Tollens and )                                      
   Hernandez 2006); guavas in Mexico (Berdegué and                                              (Gilbert 2003.
   others 2006a); and produce in China (Wang and           22. Baffes, Lewin, and Varangis 2005; Tollens and
   others 2006).                                               Gilbert 2003.
45. Berdegué and others 2003; Dries, Reardon, and                                                KILLICAFE .23
   Swinnen 2004.                                                                                         
46. Reardon and Timmer 2006.                                                              .                   
47. Reardon and Berdegué 2002; Reardon and Timmer                                                 500.000
   2006.                                                     .                           70                
48. Flores, Reardon, and Hernandez 2006.                                           (www.technoserve.org/news/
49. For example, farmers growing peanuts in Senegal                                  TZCoffeeSectorBrief.pdf).
   (Warning and Key 2002), poultry in India                24. Akiyama, Baffes, and Varangis 2001.
   (Ramaswami, Birthal, and Joshi 2006), and maize         25. Akiyama and others 2003; Bonjean, Combes, and
   in Indonesia (Simmons, Winters, and Patrick 2005).          Sturgess 2003.
361

 74. Farnworth and Goodman 2007; Henson 2006.             50. Balsevich, Berdegué, and Reardon 2006; Dries and
 75. Becchetti and Costantino 2006; Murray, Raynolds,         Reardon 2005; Hu and others 2004.
     and Taylor 2006; Utting-Chamorro 2005.                     2002   Rodrigues , Gutman 2007   .51
 76. Mendoza and Bastiaensen 2003; Zehner 2002.                                                            
 77. Lernoud and Fonseca 2004.                                                                                
 78. Henson 2006.                                                                          .                 
 79. Akiyama and Larson 1994; FAO 2004d.                  52. Mukherjee and Patel 2005.
 4.2                                               .80    53. Some examples are Xincheng and SanLu in China
            2004                    8                         (Hu and others 2004), Homegrown in Kenya
       2.6                                                    (Boselie, Henson, and Weath-erspoon 2003),
                                          . 8                 Konzum in Croatia (Dries, Reardon, and Swinnen
 81. FAO 2004d.                                               2004), Hortifruit in Central America (Berdegué and
 82. Henson 2006.                                             others 2003), and ITC in India (DeMaagd and
                                                              Moore 2006).
 1. FAO 2007b.                                            54. Minten, Randrianarison, and Swinnen 2006;
 2. World Bank 2003f                                          Swinnen and Maertens 2005.
 3. Freeman and Estrada-Valle 2003.                       55. Reardon and Berdegué 2002.
 4. van der Meer 2007.                                    56. World Bank 2005d.
 5. Reardon, Henson, and Berdegué forthcoming.            57. Buzby, Frenzen, and Rasco 2001; Henson 2006.
                                                     .6   58. Unnevehr 2003.
                                                          59.
                                  .                           http://www.eurepgap.org/Languages/English/about.
 7. Mercier Querido Farina and dos Santos Viegas              html.
     2003.                                                60. Henson and Caswell 1999; Jha 2002; OECD 2003;
 8. da Silveira and Borges 2007.                              Wilson and Abiola 2003.
 9. ETC Group Communiqué 2005.                            61. Jaffee and Henson 2004; World Bank 2005d.
 10. Tirole 1998.                                         62. Otsuki, Wilson, and Sewadeh 2001 is widely
 11. Murphy 2006.                                             referenced.
 12. FAO 2004b; International Coffee Organization         63. Calvin, Flores, and Foster 2003.
     2007; International Cocoa Organization (ICO)                                                               .64
     2006; Vorley 2003.                                                                           
 13. Morisset 1998.                                                                                           
 14. World Bank 2006v                                                                                    
 15. van der Meer 2007.                                                                                       
 16. http://www.tetrapak.com.                                                                                
 17. http://www.danone.com; http://www.grameen-                                                         .     
     info.org.                                            65. Umali-Deininger and Sur 2006; World Bank
 18.                                                          2005c.
     http://www.cocoasustainability.mars.com/News/arti    66. See Jaffee 2005 for Indian spices, Minten,
     cle5. htm.                                               Randrianarison, and Swinnen 2006 for Madagascar
                                                              vegetables, Manarungsan, Naewbanij, and
 1. Ayalew, Dercon, and Gautam 2005; Deininger and            Rerngjakrabhet 2005 for Thai vegetables, and
     Jin 2006; Place and Otsuka 2002.                         Dries, Reardon, and Swinnen 2004 for various
 2. Alden-Wily 2003.                                          examples in Eastern Europe.
 3. Deininger, Ayalew, and Yamano 2006.                   67. Maertens and Swinnen 2006.
 4. Chauveau and others 2006.                             68. World Bank 2005f.
 5. Burns 2006.                                           69. World Bank 2005d.
 6. Goldstein and Udry 2006.                                                                                    .70
                                                     .7           sps                                         
                    .                                                                                   
 8. Deere and León 2001.                                  http:// (Standards Trade Develbpment Facility,
 9. Deininger and Castagnini 2006.                                                  www.standardsfacility.org).
 10. Khadiagala 2001.                                                                                         .71
 11. Raju, Akella, and Deininger 2006.                                                         
                      .2005                        .12                                                   
                                     .2004         .13                                                   .  
 14. Lobo and Balakrishnan 2002.                          72. Farnworth and Goodman 2007.
 15. World Bank 2007e.                                    73. Dimitri and Oberholtzer 2006; International
 16. Swinnen and Vranken 2006.                                Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements
 17. Deininger and Jin 2003.                                  (IFOAM) 2006.
                                                                          2008                                362

63. Kelly, Adesina, and Gordon 2003.                        18. Deininger and Chamorro 2004; Deininger and Jin
64. Dufl o, Kremer, and Robinson 2006.                         2007; Macours, de Janvry, and Sadoulet 2004.
65. Van der Meer and Noordam 2004.                          19. Deininger, Ayalew, and Alemu 2006.
                                            .66             20. Cain 1981; Kranton and Swamy 1999; World Bank
     .                                                         2003h.
    (http://www.sodp.org).                                  21. Nagarajan, Deininger, and Jin forthcoming.
\ (http://www.aac.co.ke/).                                  22. Bardhan and Mookherjee 2006.
67. Bramel and Remington 2005.                              23. Bird and Slack 2004.
                                           :         .68    24. Banerjee and Iyer 2005; Nugent and Robinson
                                                               2002.
     " "                         "         "                25. Appu 1996; Deininger 1999; Lutz, Heath, and
                                                               Binswanger 1996.
                                                            26. Banerjee, Gertler, and Ghatak 2002.
                                                            27. World Bank 2007f.
                                                            28. Zeller 2003.
                                                            29. Boucher, Carter, and Guirkinger 2006.
                                       .                    30. Sarris, Savastano, and Tritten 2004.
        2007                                         .69    31. Boucher, Carter, and Guirkinger 2006.
          Land O'Lakes, Welch's,                            32. Peck Christen and Pearce 2005.
             Sunkist, Blue Diamond, and Ocean Spray.        33. Pearce and others 2005.
70. Mauget and Koulytchizky 2003.                                                )                             .34
71. Banerjee and others 2001.                                                                 .(2004   
72. http://www.agro-info.net.                               35. Adams, Graham, and Von Pischke 1984.
73. Mercoiret, Pesche, and Bosc 2006.                                                    :1989                 .36
       (http://www.Nddb.Org)                         .74                                                   
75. http://www.juanvaldez.com/.                                                                           
76. Chen and others forthcoming; Mercoiret, Pesche,               .(1989           )                        
    and Bosc 2006; Stockbridge 2003.                        37. Coffey 1998.
77. Bernard, de Janvry, and Sadoulet 2005.                  38. Cuevas and Fischer 2006; Nair and Kloeppinger-
78. Berdegué 2001.                                             Todd 2007; World Bank 2007g.
79. Berdegué 2001.                                          39. Aeshliman 2007.
                                                                                 )                             .40
80. Brock and McGee 2004.
                                                                                           . 2006 (  
81. Hussi and others 1993.
                                                                                 )                             .41
                           20         1995           .82
                                                                                             . 2006 (  
                13                                          42. Nair and Kloeppinger-Todd 2006.
                   24                                       43. Conning 2005.
                                                   7        44. Fleisig and de la Peña 2003.
                                27                          45. de Janvry, McIntosh, and Sadoulet 2006.
                   .                                        46. Hess 2003; Skees and Barnett 2006.
83. Collion and Rondot 2001; Mercoiret, Pesche, and         47. Just 2006.
    Bosc 2006.                                              48. McPeak 2006.
84. World Bank 2006c.                                       49. McCord, Botero, and McCord 2005.
                                                            50. Hazell 1992.
1. Conway 1999.                                             51. Sarris, Karfakis, and Christiaensen 2006.
2. Evenson and Gollin 2003.                                 52. Gine, Townsend, and Vickery 2006.
3. Evenson and Rosegrant 2003.                              .Helly 2006                                     .53
4. See Web site at http://www.indiastat.com.                54. Yanggen and others 1998.
5. Reynolds and Borlaug 2006.                                                                                  .55
                                "               "      .6                        .(Anderson and Hardaker 2003)
           .(2001          )                                56. Morris 1998.
                                   (         )         .7                                                     .57
                                             .                                         Gregory and Bumb 2006.
8. InterAcademy Council 2004; Quisumbing 1996.              58. Jayne and others 2003; Kherallah and others 2002.
9. Byerlee and Eicher 1997.                                                                                    .59
                     .                          .10                   .2007   2006           Minot            
11. Falusi and Afolami 2000; Nweke, Spencer, and                              2005                             .60
    Lynman 2002.                                                                . 2003                    
         2007                                  .12          61. Crawford, Jayne, and Kelly 2006.
                                    .                       62. Borlaug and Dowswell 2007.
                      .2006                     .13
363

 59. Byerlee and Traxler 2001; Maredia and Byerlee          14. Joshi and others 1996.
     2000.                                                  15. Walker 2007.
 60. Alston 2002.                                           16. Joshi and others 1996; Walker 2007.
 61. Pardey and others 2007.                                17. Sperling, Loevinsohn, and Ntabomvura 1993;
 62. Gardner and Lesser 2003; Pardey and others 2007.          Walker 2007.
 63. Gisselquist, Nash, and Pray 2002.                      18. Gollin 2006.
 64. Kremer and Zwane 2005.                                 19. Blackeslee 1987.
 65. Sobel 1996.                                                                                         .20
 66. Masters 2005.                                                                              
 67. Eicher 2006.                                                                                            
                                      .2005          .68                                                   
 69. Byerlee and Traxler 2001.                                                                  
 70. See Web site at http://www.fontagro.org.                        .(2001             )     40             
 71. Spielman, Hartwich, and von Grebmer 2006.              21. Stokstad 2007.
 72. Pardey and others 2007.                                22. Long and Hughes 2001.
            ."    " "  "                              .73   23. See http://www.promusa.org.
                                     2002           .74     24. Kamuze 2004.
             .                                              25. Karamura and others 2006.
                                                      .75                     .                           .26
        0.4                                                 27. Lantican, Pingali, and Rajaram 2003.
                                  .(Allegri 2002   )        28. Xu and others 2006.
                                                      .76   29. Smale and Drucker forthcoming.
                                                            30. Narrod and Pray 2001.
      .                                                     31. Steinfeld and others 2006.
 77. Christiaensen and Demery 2007.                         32. Thibier and Wagner 2002.
 78. Anderson, Feder, and Ganguly 2006.                     33. Leksmono and others 2006.
 79. Anderson 2007; Qamar 2002.                                                 .2000                         .34
 80. Singh 2007.                                            35. Fuglie and others 2002.
 81. Blackden and others 2006; Doss and Morris 2001;        36. McGaw, Witcombe, and Hash 1997; Gibson 2002;
     Moore and others 2001.                                    Pablico 2006.
 82. Ekwamu and Brown 2005; Ellis and others 2006.                                              .2004        .37
 83. Sulaiman V. and Hall 2002.                             38. Pretty 2006.
 84. Cuéllar and Kandel 2006; Uliwa and Fischer 2004.       39. See http://www.rolf-
 85. van den Berg and Jiggins 2007.                            derpsch.com/siembradirecta.htm.
 86. Feder, Murgai, and Quizon 2004; Godtland and                          .                                 .40
     others 2004; Tripp, Wijeratne, and Piyadasa 2005.               .2006                                .41
 87. International Telecommunication Union (ITU)            42. Angus 2001.
     2006.                                                         .2006                                     .43
 88. Muto 2006.                                             44. Waibel and Pemsl 1999.
 89. Sullivan 2005. 90 Lio and Liu 2006.                    45. Zeddies and others 2001.
                                                            46. InterAcademy Council 2004.
 1. James 2006.                                                                .2006                         .47
 2. FAO 2004e; Smale and others 2006.                       48. See Web site at http://www.icipe.org.
 3. Huang and others 2002; Qaim 2005.                                                           .2006        .49
 4. Fok, Liang, and Wu 2005; Pemsl, Waibel, and             50. Tripp 2006.
     Gutierrez 2005; Yang and others 2005.                  51. Barrett 2003.
 5. Pray and others 2002; Sakiko 2007; Smale and                                                            .52
     others 2006.                                                                                       .2007
 6. Gandhi and Namboodiri 2006.                             53. Alston and others 2000.
                                              .7                                                             .54
   0.57                 0.69                                     (2000                    )             
                               .                                                                             
 8. Bennett, Morse, and Ismael 2006; Gandhi and             )                                        
     Namboodiri 2006; Herring 2007; Qaim and others                              .(2003   2000    
     2006; Stone 2007.                                      55. Pardey and others 2007.
 9. James 2006.                                             56. Pardey and others 2007.
                                            .10             57. Beintema and Stads 2006.
                                                            58. Alston and Pardey 1993; Hayami, Kikuchi, and
             .              45                   201           Morooka 1989.
    "                                      "    
                                                                          2008                                   364

17. Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management                                                                 
   in Agriculture 2007; International Assessment of                                                                  
   Agricultural Science and Technology for                        .                                               
   Development IAASTD) 2007; Rockström and
   Barron 2007.                                             11. Huang and others 2005.
18. Feuillette 2001; García-Mollá 2000; Moench and                                                               .12
   others 2003.                                                            .                       
19. Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management
   in Agriculture 2007; World Bank 2006t.                   13. Stein, Sachdev, and Qaim 2006.
20. World Bank 2005h.                                       14. Byerlee 1996.
21. de Wit and Stankiewicz 2006.                            15. Eicher, Maredia, and Sithole-Niang 2006.
22. World Bank 2006l.                                       16. Edmeades and Smale 2006
23. Aw and Diemer 2005.                                     17. Pingali 2007; Spielman, Cohen, and Zambrano
24. World Bank 2006o.                                          2006.
25. Gulati, Meinzen-Dick, and Raju 2005.                    18. Byerlee and Fischer 2002; Pingali 2007.
26. Dinar 2007.                                             19. Spielman, Cohen, and Zambrano 2006.
27. World Bank 2006x.                                       20. Brookes and Barfoot 2006; International Council
                                                 .28           for Science 2003; Task Force of the International
                                                               Life Science Institute (ILSI) International Food
                                                               Biotechnology Committee 2001; The Royal Society
                                                               2002.
                                                   .        21. FAO 2004e; Sanvido and others 2006.
29. Nayar and Aughton 2007.                                 22. Pray and others 2006.
30. Pongkijvorasin and Roumasset 2007.                                                                          .23
31. Bastiaanssen and Hellegers 2007.                                                                      
32. Molle and Berkoff 2006.                                                                                      
33. Backeberg 2005; Kuriakose and others 2005;                                                         .   
   United Nations Development Program 2006; World
   Bank 2006x; Zwart-eveen 1997.                            24. Gruere and Bouët 2006; Nielson and Anderson
34. World Bank 2006x.                                           2001.
35. Aw and Diemer 2005; Saleth and Dinar 2005.              25. Bernauer 2003.
36. World Bank 2005h.                                       26. Barrett and Brunk 2007.
37. World Bank 2003b.                                                                .                    .27
38. World Bank 2006l.                                                                                            
39. International Fund for Agricultural Development         1. Rosegrant and Hazell 2001.
   (IFAD) 2001.
40. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005.                                       germiplasm                     .2
41. Fowler and Hodgkin 2004; McNeely and Scherr                                           80                   
   2003.                                                                   .(2007               )                 
42. Heisey and others 1997.                                                      .2005                          .3
43. World Bank 2003d.                                       1994pagiola  1994gichuki  .Tiffen ,. Mortimore .4
44. Pingali and Rosengrant 1994; Susmita, Meisner,                                         / 
   and Wheeler 2007.                                                                                              
45. Pretty 2006.                                                             .                             
46. Pingali, Hossaim, and Gerpacio 1997.
47. Forss and Lundström 2004; Forss and Sterky 2000.        5. Ruben and Pender 2004.
48. Steinfeld and others 2006.                              6. Jackson 1993.
49. World Bank 2005i.                                       7. Boserup 1965; Tiffen, Mortimore, and Gichuki
50. Gilbert and others 2006.                                    1994.
51. FAO 2007c.                                              8. Cleaver and Schreiber 1994; Place, Pender, and Ehui
52. Gilbert and others 2006.                                    2006.
53. Dixon, Gibbon, Gulliver 2001.                           9. Messer, Cohen, and Marchione 2001.
54. Scherr and Yadav 1996.                                  10. Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management
55. Bojo 1996.                                                  in Agriculture 2007; Hazell and Wood forthcoming;
56. Cohen, Shepherd, and Walsh 2005.                            Sebastian 2007.
57. Cohen, Brown, and Shepherd 2006.                        11. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005.
58. World Bank 2007h.                                       12. United Nations Development Program 2006.
59. Palmieri and others 2003.                               13. Shah and others 2003.
60. Area of forests in mosaic lands is about 16 percent     14. Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management
   of total forest cover in tropical areas, as calculated       in Agriculture 2007.
   from World Bank 2007i.                                   15. Howe 2002.
61. World Bank 2007i.                                       16. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005.
62. Scherr and McNeely 2006.
365

      .                                           .15      63. Fan and Hazell 2001.
                        .(GEF)                             64. World Bank 2007i.
 16. Stern 2006.                                           65. Shively and Pagiola 2004.
 17. Stern 2006.                                           66. Rudel 2005.
 18. Stern 2006.                                           67. World Bank 2007h.
 19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change             68. Rockström and Barron 2007.
     2007b.                                                69. Nkonya and others 2007.
 2005 Tomich                        2007            .20    70. McIntire, Bouzart, and Pingali 1992.
                                                           71. ICRAF, personal communication, 2007.
                                                           72. de Graaff 1996; Helben 2006; Reij and Steeds
      .                                                        2003.
 21. Sathaye and others forthcoming cited after World      73. Erenstein 1999.
     Bank 2007i.                                           74. See Tripp 2006 and Ruben and Pender 2004 for
 22. Steinfeld and others 2006; Stern 2006.                    useful reviews.
 23. World Bank 2007i.                                     75. Pender, Place, and Ehui 2006.
                                                           76. Tripp 2006.
                                                   .1      77. Gebremedhin, Pender, and Tesfaye 2006.
                                                           78. International Fund for Agricultural Development
                                                               (IFAD) 2005b.
                                                           79. Uphoff 2001.
                                                           80. Jackson 1993.
                                                           81. Westermann, Ashby, and Pretty 2005.
          .                                                82. Knox, Meinzen-Dick, and Hazell 2002.
                                                           83. As shown in a recent Consultative Group on
                                              .                International Agricultural Research Science
                                                               Council (CGIAR) 2006a study, more powerful win-
                                      .                        win options are elusive.
                                                           84. Pagiola and Platais forthcoming.
                                                           85. Pagiola and Platais forthcoming.
                                         .                 86. Pagiola and others forthcoming.
 2. Cramer and Sender 1999; Erlebach 2006; Sender,         87. Tipper 2004.
     Oya, and Cramer forthcoming.                                                                          
 3. Basu 2006a                                             1. Long and others 2007.
 4. Cramer and Sender 1999; Erlebach 2006; Johnston        2. Stern 2006; Parry, Rosenzweig, and Livermore
     1997; Sender, Oya, and Cramer forthcoming.                2007.
 5. Deshingkar and Farrington 2006.                        3. Estimates by Warren 2006 based on data prepared
 6. Hurst, Termine, and Karl 2005.                             by Parry and others 2004. Scenario without the
 7. Glinkskaya and Jalan 2005.                                 CO2 fertilization effect.
 8. World Bank 2003g.                                      4. Long and others 2007.
 9. Jarvis and Vera-Toscano 2004.                                                                              .5
 10. Kochar 1997.                                                                                           
 11. Jayachandran 2006.                                                                               
 12. Foster and Rosenzweig 1994.                                schenker and Roberts 2006)                 
 13. Sundaram and Tendulkar 2007.                                                              .(challinor  
 14. Dev 2002.                                             6. Dasgupta and others 2007.
 15. Hurst, Termine, and Karl 2005, citing Olney and       7. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
     others 2002.                                              2007a.
 16. Hurst, Termine, and Karl 2005.                                         11                         9.500 .8
 17. Valdés and Foster 2006.                                                                          " 
 18. Hurst, Termine, and Karl 2005.                                      .(GEF)                          "      
   Foster Vales                                     . 19   9. Maddison 2006.
                                                2006                                                             .10
                                             .                          7                                     
 20. Ureta 2002.                                                  .(2006 gbetibouo)                        
 21. Jayaraman and Lanjouw 1999; Otsuka and David          11. Kurukulasuriya and others 2006; African
     1994.                                                     Development Bank and others 2007.
 22. Escobal, Reardon, and Agreda 2000; Jarvis and         12. Vergara and others forthcoming; Vergara 2005.
     Vera-Toscano 2004.                                    13. Arndt, Hazell, and Robinson 2000.
 23. Valdés and Foster 2006.                               14. International Research Institute for Climate and
 24. Valdés and Foster 2006.                                   Society (IRI) and others 2007.
                                                                          2008                                  366

62. Clay, Riley, and Urey 2004.                             25. Haggblade, Hazell, and Reardon forthcoming.
63. Galasso, Ravallion, and Salvia 2004; Ravallion and      26. Hurst, Termine, and Karl 2005.
    others 2005.                                                                                          .27
64. Morton and others 2006.                                                                         
                                                             http;//iresearch.worldbank.org/investment clinate/.
1. Edmonds and Pavcnink 2005.                                                                                    .28
2. De and Dreze 1999.                                                                                 
3. Chaudhury and others 2006.                                                                      
4. World Bank 2006z.                                                                                     
5. De and Dreze 1999.                                                                             .    
         .2006                                         .6   29. Damiani 2007.
7. FAO and UNESCO 2003.                                     30. Sundaram and Tendulkar 2007.
8. Johanson and Adams 2004.                                 31. World Bank 2004g.
9. Johanson and Adams 2004.                                 32. Araujo, de Janvry, and Sadoulet 2002.
10. Johanson and Adams 2004.                                33. Hanson 2005.
11. http://www.oportunidades.gob.mx.                        34. Hanson 2005.
12. FAO and UNESCO 2003.                                                                                       .35
13. Muir-Leresche 2003.                                                                                 
  EARTH (Escuela de Agricultura de la Región .14                                          
                                   Tropical Húmeda)                                              
                           .                                                                .                  
15. Juma 2006.                                              36. See, for example, Hoddinott 1994, Lanzona 1998,
16. Barrera 2007.                                              Li and Zahniser 2002, Matsumoto, Kijima, and
17. Section based on Saint 2007.                               Yamano 2006, and Zhao 1999.
             .2004 (IFPRI)                           .18    37. Quisumbing and McNiven 2005.
19. Stads and Beintema 2006.                                38. McCulloch, Weisbrod, and Timmer 2007.
20. www.saa-tokyo.org/english.                              39. Otsuka and Yamano 2006; Satterthwaite and Tacoli
21. Eicher 2006.                                               2003.
22. Eicher 2006.                                            40. Banerjee and Newman 1993.
              .                                      .23    41. World Bank 2007c.
                                                            42. Otsuka and Yamano 2006.
1. Hawkes and Ruel 2006; Perry and others 2002.             43. Foster and Rosenzweig 1993.
2. Lipton and de Kadt 1988.                                 44. Gurgand 2003.
          .2006 (                   )                  .3   45. Dufl o 2001.
4. Mutero and others 2005; Snowden 2006; Keiser and         46. de Brauw and others 2002; Du, Park, and Wang
    others 2005.                                               2005; Kashisa and Palanichamy 2006.
5. Amarcher and others 2004.                                47. Fafchamps and Quisumbing 1999; Jolliffe 2004;
6. Mutero, McCartney, and Boelee 2006.                         Laszlo 2004.
7. Snowden 2006.                                            48. Orazem and King forthcoming.
                                               .8           49. Cherdchuchai 2006; Quisumbing, Estudillo, and
                    .(Girardin and others 2004)                Otsuka 2004; Takahashi 2006.
9. Keiser, Singer, and Utzinger 2005.                       50. Kochar 2000.
10. van der Hoek 2003; Mutero and others 2005.              51. Hanushek and Woessmann 2007; OECD 2004;
                      .2003 (WHO)                    .11       World Bank 2006z.
12. Goldman and Tran 2002.                                  52. World Bank 2005e.
13. Yanggen and others 2003; Cole, Carpio, and León         53. Nishimura, Yamano, and Sasaoka forthcoming.
    2000.                                                   54. Rawlings and Rubio 2005.
                                                   .14      55. de Janvry and Sadoulet 2006a; Rugh and Bossert
                                                               1998.
            .                                               56. Ravallion and Wodon 2000; Schady and Araujo
15. Pingali, Marquez, and Palis 1994; Rola and Pingali         2006; Schultz 2001.
    1993.                                                                                                       .57
16. Hruska and Corriols 2002.                                                                         .       
17. United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS              58. Levy 2007.
    (UNAIDS) 2006.                                          59. Edmonds forthcoming, using data from UNICEF's
18. Binswanger 2006.                                           Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys;
19. Gillespie and Kadiyala 2005                                http://www.childinfo.org/MICS2/
20. Staatz and Dembele 2007.                                   MICSDataSet.htm.
21. Gillespie and Kadiyala 2005.                            60. Ratha 2005.
22. Jayne and others 2006b.                                 61. Alderman and Haque 2006.
367

  15. Olken 2007.                                         23. Abbot and others 2005.
  16. Finan and Ferraz 2005.                              24. Gillespie 2006.
  17. Work 2002.                                          25. Taylor, Latham, and Woolhouse 2001.
  18. Bahiigwa, Rigby, and Woodhouse 2005.                26. United Nations Systemwide Infl uenza
  19. Brosio 2000.                                           Coordinator and World Bank 2007.
  20. Bahiigwa, Mdoe, and Ellis 2005.                     27. Zinsstag and others 2007.
  21. Lin, Tao, and Liu 2007.                             28. World Bank and others 2006.
  22. Chattopadhyay and Dufl o 2004.                                                                                  
                               .2004             .23      1. Gabre-Madhin and Haggblade 2004.
  24. Faguet 2004.                                        2. FAO 2006a.
  25. Hayward 2006.                                       3. Collier 2006; Staatz and Dembele 2007.
  26. Zyl, Sonn, and Costa 2000.                          4. Limao and Venables 2001.
  27. Binswanger forthcoming; Binswanger and Nguyen       5. International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS)
     2006.                                                    2000.
  28. Wassenich and Whiteside 2004; World Bank            6. Ndulu 2007.
     2005m.                                               7. Staatz and Dembele 2007.
  29. OECD 2006a.                                         8. Hayami and Platteau 1997.
                                                 .30      9. Diao and others 2003; Staatz and Dembele 2007.
                                            .             10. Pender and Nkonya 2007.
                            .                             11. Staatz and Dembele 2007.
 31. Blackie and others 2006; Chinsinga 2007; Evans,                                                           .12
 Cabral, and Vadnjal 2006; Harrigan 2003.                                                           
 32. See http://www.donorplatform.org,                                    .                                  
    http://www.ruta.org, and                                                                             . 2006  .13
    http://www.neuchatelinitiative.net.                                                                 .2007  .14
                                               .33                                                      .2007  .15
                                                                                                   .2006           .16
                                                          56                                                    80 .17
 (Foster, .                                                                                         
                       Brown, and Naschold 2000).                  .(2005        )                                
 34. Mosley and Suleiman 2007.                                                                .2006               .18
 35. World Bank 2005b.                                                                                             .19
 36. World Bank 2005b.                                                               . 2004  2006 (CEPAL)
 37. Alex McCalla, personal communication, 2007.                .2006  2006   2007      .20
 38. Forum on China-Africa Cooperation at                                           .2007                         .21
    http://www.fmprc. gov.cn/eng/; People's Republic                                        . 2006               .22
    of China 2006.                                                                         .2004           .23
 39. Raitzer 2003.                                                                            .2007             .24
 40. Louwaars 2007.                                                                              .2005            .25
 41. Oberthür 2002.                                                                                    .2007       .26
 42. Lele and Gerrard 2003.                                                       .2005                            .27
 43. World Bank 2004a.                                                                             .2005           .28
 44. Winter-Nelson and Rich 2006.                                                             .2007             .29
 45. Lele and Gerrard 2003; Raitzer and Kelley                                                                        
    forthcoming.                                               Binsqanger , Deininger. And Feder 1995               .1
 46. Stern 2006.                                             .                                                  
 47. http://www.g-                                        2. Goldstone and others 2005.
    8.de/nn_92452/Content/EN/Artikel/__g8-su m m          3. Herzog and Wright 2006.
    it/2007- 06-07-g8-k l i ma s chut z _ _ en.ht m l.                   .Julio Beddegue 2007                 .4
 48. Unnevehr 2004.                                          Riikka and Wiltem Janssen  2007                  .5
 49. Stern 2006.                                          6. Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith 1993.
                                                          7. Ryan 1999.
                                                          8. López and Galinato 2006.
                                                                                .C.de Haan 2007               .9
                                                                                                  .i2003           .10
                                                          11. Sharma 2007.
                                                          12. Huppert and Wolff 2002; Rinaudo 2002; Wade
                                                              1982, Wade 1984.
                                                          13. BBC News 2005; Fredriksson and Svensson 2003.
                                                          14. Ackerman 2004.