d i s c u s s i o n pa p e r n u m B e r 1 2 decemBer 2010 d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c l i m at e c h a n g e d i s c u s s i o n pa p e r s 1 58899 d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R n U m B E R 1 2 d E c E m B E R 2 0 1 0 E c o n o m i c s o f A d A p t A t i o n t o c l i m A t E c h A n g E The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh Iqbal Alam Khan, Zulfiqar Ali, M Asaduzzaman and M Harunur Rashid Bhuyan Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department of the World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank 1818 H St., NW Washington, DC 20433 U.S.A. Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved. December 2010 This paper is based upon work that has been commissioned by the World Bank as part of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study. The results reported in the paper are preliminary and subject to revision. The analysis, results, and views expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone and do not represent the position of the World Bank or any of its member countries. Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. Copies are available from the World Bank Environment Department by calling 202-473-3641. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown or any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptances of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applica- ble law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com Cover photo courtesy of Shehzad Noorani/World Bank. iii Table of ConTenTs AcRonUms And ABBREvAtions vi AcKnoWlEdgmEnts vii ExEcUtivE sUmmARy viii 1. intRodUction And ovERviEW 1 Summary of EACC Project and the Social Component 1 Study Rationale and Approach 1 Conceptual Framework 2 Climate Change ­ Poverty Nexus 3 Key Areas of Inquiry 4 Asset and Livelihood Systems 4 Vulnerability and Climate Change 5 Policy and Institutional Framework for Climate Resilience 6 People in Places: Socio-Spatial Approaches to Adaptation 8 2. sociAl dimEnsions of climAtE chAngE in BAnglAdEsh 10 Expected Physical Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh 10 Flood 10 Drought 10 Sea Level Rise 11 Salinity Intrusion 11 Drainage Congestion 11 Coastal Erosion 12 Cyclones and Storm Surges 12 River Bank Erosion and Vulnerability of Charlands 12 National Planning for Climate Change: NAPA and other Strategies 12 Overview of Social Vulnerability in Bangladesh 13 Human Health 13 Gender Situation 14 iv t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h 3. REsEARch mEthodology 15 Research Strategy and Questions 15 Site Selection and Sampling 15 Methods: Tools Employed 15 4. fiEldWoRK REsUlts 18 Overview and Introduction to Areas of Investigation 18 Household Asset Base and Vulnerability 18 Asset Base: 18 Existing Livelihood Systems 26 Livelihood Practices: 26 Experience with Past Climate Variability and Hazards 29 Climatic Hazards: 29 Physical and Socio-economic Impacts: 33 Sector-Wise Impacts 36 Vulnerability in the Context of Study Hotspots 38 Cross-Cutting Observations: Coping Strategies versus Adaptation 49 Existing Coping Mechanisms 49 Key Conclusions from Fieldwork 54 Livelihoods and Climate Change Adaptation 54 Enhancing Future Adaptive Capacities: 62 Sharing Responsibility: 65 5. pARticipAtoRy scEnARio dEvElopmEnt (psd) WoRKshop REsUlts 66 PSD Workshops: Design Overview 66 Objectives of the PSD Workshop: 66 Overview of Results from Local and National Workshops 69 Prevailing Climatic Conditions and People's Vision 2050 69 Climate Change Impacts, Existing Adaptation Practices and Future Options 69 Adaptation Pathways 71 Issues and Adaptation pathways: 71 Conclusions from the Workshop Track 74 6. conclUsions And REcommEndAtions 77 Major Findings and Recommendations 77 REfEREncEs 80 TABles table 1. Eight hotspots selected for EAcc ­ social study in Bangladesh. 20 table 3. Agricultural and non-agricultural Equipment 23 table 2. Asset owned by the surveyed households (multiple Responses) 23 table 4. land ownership status (Agricultural land) of the surveyed households 25 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s v table 5. Annual Average income of the household by sources 26 table 6. households faced hazards in the last 20 years 33 table 7. common Reasons for sudden loss of family income 37 table 8. household losses due to natural hazards (percentages) 38 table 9. source of information for scoring vulnerability indicators 40 table 10. vulnerability Assessment of the Eight climate change-related hotspots of EAcc study. 41 table 11. Adaptation strategies of the surveyed households While face hazards 54 table 12. determinants of Adaptive capacity 60 table 13. livelihood capital Asset scores of hotspots 60 table 14. criteria for interpreting livelihood capital asset scores 61 table 15. Adaptive capacity status of hotspots 61 MATRIces matrix 1. Existing coping mechanisms 50 matrix 2. Existing Adaptation practices 57 matrix 3. prevailing climatic conditions: 69 matrix 4. vision 2050 70 matrix 5. climate impacts and Adaptation measures 72 matrix 6. issues and Adaptation pathways 75 FIguRes figure 1. pathways of livelihood, gender and food security impacts 3 figure 2. Administrative map of Bangladesh showing the Eight hotspots of EAcc study 19 figure 3. combined livelihood Asset pentagons (All hotspots) 27 figure 4. intensity and severity of hazard by year 32 figure 5. Relationships among different components Associated with vulnerability (Preston and Smith, 2009). 39 figure 6. psd Workshop sites 67 figure 7. psd Workshop process cycle 68 vi aCRonYMs anD abbReVIaTIons BIDS Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies EACC Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change FGD Focus Group Discussion MOEF Ministry of Environment and Forest NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action NGOs Nongovernmental Organizations NWMP National Water Management Plan NWP National Water Policy PSD Participatory Scenario Development UNFCCC Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change vii aCKnoWleDGMenTs Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), where the study team was led by Zulfiqar Ali and comprised lead researcher Iqbal Alam Khan, M. Azaduzzaman, and M. The social component of the Economics of Adaptation Harunur Rashid Bhuyan. Support in methodology and to Climate Change (EACC) study (hereafter `study') workshop design and for training of trainers for the was developed through the joint efforts of the World Participatory Scenario Development (PSD) workshops Bank Social Development (SDV) and Environment was provided by Livia Bizikova (IISD), Samantha Departments (ENV) and LCR, AFR, EAP, and SAR Boardley, Carol Murray (both ESSA), and Dale Rothman Regions of the World Bank; ESSA Technologies Ltd (IISD). A separate report is available summarizing this and the International Institute for Sustainable PSD work, along with a training of trainers manual at Development (IISD), Canada; and research institutions www.worldbank.org/eacc. in Bolivia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, and Vietnam. The study was undertaken by a core team We could not have completed this work without the led by Robin Mearns and comprising Anne Kuriakose, continuous logistical support provided by Hawanty Carina Bachofen, Nilufar Ahmad and Minna Kononen Page (ENV), Grace Aguilar (ENV), Mustafa (all SDV). An overall synthesis report of all six country Pajazetovic, Carmen Martinel (both SDV) and Janet reports is available at www.worldbank.org/eacc. The Bably Halder (Dhaka Country Office). We gratefully study was designed and implemented in close collabora- acknowledge editorial services provided by John Felton tion with the team leader for the overall EACC study and production management provided by Danielle (Sergio Margulis), and Ana Bucher, Laurent Cretegny, Christophe (SDV) and Robert Reinecke. Urvashi Narain, Kiran Pandey, Robert Schneider (all ENV) and sector consultants. The Bangladesh country study has benefitted greatly from peer review comments and other feedback from The Bangladesh country study for the social component World Bank staff including Anna O'Donnell, Bhuvan was led by Anne Kuriakose and Nilufar Ahmad (SDV), Bhatnagar, and Fabio Pittaluga (all SASDS), and from under the overall guidance of Robin Mearns, in collabo- external peer reviewers including Katrina Brown, Jessica ration with the EACC country team leader Kiran Pandey Ayers and Ravi Kanbur. (ENV) and country office sector liaisons Shakil Ahmed Ferdausi (SASDI) and Khwaja Minnatullah (SASDI). Any remaining errors and omissions are entirely those Research partners in Bangladesh were the Bangladesh of the country study team. viii exeCuTIVe suMMaRY adaptation measures in practice; and understand villag- ers' aspirations and concerns regarding reduction of vulnerability and improvement of livelihoods. Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change which also has a very high population To accomplish these objectives, the researchers identi- density. The combination of a high level of poverty, and fied eight villages, in various locations in Bangladesh, a depleted ecological system increase the country's each of which is region that has faced and will vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, which continue to face natural (or in some cases man-made) threatens the development achievements over the last disasters that likely will be worsened by the effects of decades. The increasing risks from climate change, sea climate change. These villages thus are known as level rise, and natural and man-made hazards--such as "hotspots." (A list of the hotspots is shown in Table 1). cyclones, storm surge, flooding, land erosion, water For the sake of simplicity, the hotspots are identified logging, and salinity intrusion in soil and water-- throughout the text by their predominant hazard char- already have adversely affected livelihoods of people acteristic, for example "drought prone" or "cyclone living in environmentally fragile areas. prone." In 2005 the National Adaptation Program of Action One of the main purposes of the social component (NAPA) for Bangladesh was prepared by the Ministry study is to understand the linkages between the adaptive of Environment and Forest (MOEF) as a response to capacity of the hotspot communities and the back- the decision of the Seventh Session of the Conference of ground of the communities in relation to their liveli- the Parties (COP7) of the United Nations Framework hood capital assets. This study focused more on the Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). NAPA primary intervention of collecting data from the has prepared the adaptation measures as a set of actions selected hotspots. To make the outcomes useful, this complementary to national goals and objectives of other study combined both qualitative and quantitative multilateral environmental agreements to which approaches of field investigations. While quantitative Bangladesh is one of the signatories. data was collected via a household questionnaire survey, a focus also was given to the qualitative understanding The objectives of this study are to identify the social of the livelihood strategies developed in the changing and livelihood groups vulnerable to climate change or climate variability. This involved the use of various tools climate variability; understand capital asset transforma- such as village mapping, village timelines, wealth rank- tion capability of the villagers in potential hotspots; ing, focus group discussions (FGDs), Self-Assessments, recognize and categorize climate change related hazards Household Surveys, and Participatory Scenario facing people in those hotspots; identify a range of Development (PSD) workshops. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s ix fI n DI n Gs due to the absence of crop cultivation. Livestock always serve as important assets for the poor, and their prod- Although different hotspot areas are prone to different ucts can either be consumed by the household or sold in types of hazards, the above discussions highlight that the market. the intensity and frequency of climatic events are increasing, thus bringing about greater impacts on the Trees and vegetation are also severely affected in lives and livelihoods of people. Some devastating histor- hotspots except for the drainage congestion prone ical disasters have affected almost all places, although hotspots, because trees are not an integral part of urban the degree of effect may be different. For instance, in life. In drought prone areas, people complained that respect to river floods, flash floods, waterlogged and they have no space for growing trees, while in water- drainage congestion-prone hotspots, all respondents logged, river and flash flood prone areas, trees cannot be highlighted the severe floods of 1988, 1998, and 2007, grown due to excess water. In cyclone, salinity and tidal each of which had nationwide impacts. Similarly, the flood prone hotspots, frequent cyclones cause trees to be two consecutive cyclones Sidr and Aila (2007 and 2009, uprooted and the soil salinity prevents homestead respectively) brought about huge miseries for people in gardening. hotspots close to the coast. Infrastructural damage is severe for the coastal In all the hotspots, the most affected sector is usually hotspots, where cyclones lead to damage of roads, agriculture because crop cultivation is highly depended embankments, bridges, and houses, which need to be on nature. While in cyclone prone area, crops are rebuilt completely. In the drainage congestion and flood damaged by occasional cyclones, in salinity and tidal prone areas, the damage is comparatively less, and minor flood prone areas crop cultivation is gradually becoming repairs often can restore infrastructure to its original difficult due to increased salinity. In other areas--such state. Problems occur when rising water level completely as river and flash prone hotspots--people can only grow disrupts road communication for a few months, as in crops in the Boro season, whereas in waterlogged areas the case of a flash flood prone hotspot. Drought usually farmers cannot grow crops in any season at all. Lack of has no effect on infrastructure or household materials. crop production has direct impact on income as rural people are mostly depended on agriculture for their The health sector is mainly affected by waterborne and livelihoods. skin diseases resulting from floods, waterlogged and salinity. Long-term effects include malnutrition, stress, The fisheries sector is highly affected in cyclone and and increased physical labor arising out of poverty. waterlogged prone hotspots, where cyclones and saline Health problems create additional treatment expendi- water have caused ghers to be damaged and fisheries to tures and also lead to lack of productivity of labor. die. But in salinity and tidal flood prone hotspots, the Severe consequences such as death tend to only occur in same saline water created opportunities for shrimp cyclone prone hotspots , although incidents such a farming. Even so, the poor are usually against shrimp drowning of children have also been recorded in flood cultivation because it leads to increased salinity and prone areas. further damage to agricultural lands. The impacts on education can also be direct or indirect. The impacts of natural disasters on livestock can be Floods and cyclones often cause schools to remain direct or indirect. In cyclone prone hotspots, livestock closed for a few weeks and also create communication often die during cyclones when people fail to move problems for children. In all hotspots, however, second- them to safe shelters. In other areas--for example the ary effects are more severe, as when the lack of income waterlogged, drainage congested, and flash flood and compels parents to stop education of their children. river flood prone hotspots--livestock are occasionally affected by rises in water levels, during which they have Due to various climatic hazards, landlessness is gradu- to be moved to higher areas. However, in most areas ally increasing in almost all hotspots; this severely people find in difficult to provide food for their cattle affects incomes since rural people mostly depend on x t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h agro-based livelihoods. Food insecurity is a direct which prevents asset transformation in times of need. In consequence of landlessness, because when people tidal flood prone hotspots, the frequency and intensity cannot grow crops, they cannot provide food for their of cyclones is quite lower than in cyclone and salinity families. In few hotspots, climatic hazards have led to prone hotspots, for which the impacts are comparatively new social conflicts or increased the previous ones. less violent and the community has time to recover Social insecurity such as theft and harassment from the shocks. Moreover, people in the tidal flood increases. Men do not want to leave their families and prone hotspot have a wider range of livelihood opportu- migrate to other places for work. However, in river flood nities as it is the most popular tourist spot in the coun- and waterlogged prone areas, people mention that they try. Also nearby is the Bay of Bengal, where about 80 have good social cohesion, and females feel confident to percent of the people are involved in fishing. live alone in the absence of their husbands or sons. In cyclone prone area, social security is also good, and Although the cyclone and salinity prone hotspots are people can leave their assets and houses during cyclones also part of two coastal districts, their access to the sea without worrying that they could be stolen. But insecu- is restricted by the large expanse of mangrove forest. In rity is a problem in the urban drainage congestion prone the tidal flood prone area, comparatively rich business- hotspots, where if people leave their houses unattended, men carry out shrimp cultivation and salt production everything would be stolen. Poor health and poor for which they can hire people as laborers. As a result, education, which are direct or indirect impacts of migration for work is less prominent in this area climate change, also increase vulnerability of people. because even if people cannot cultivate crops or have Poor communication facilities increase vulnerability by fishing trawlers of their own, they can work as laborers. reducing people's mobility and livelihood options. NGOs play an important role in post-disaster periods in cyclone prone hotspot, but this type of external Coping mechanisms and adaptation vary according to support is absent in the salinity prone hotspot. In the the type of hazard in the different hotspots. Even when latter, there are no cyclone shelters and no one has ever some of the coping mechanisms are similar for multiple come to deliver warning signals, distribute relief materi- hotspots, the extent of use and the time of usage vary. als, or reconstruct broken roads or houses. By contrast, Temporary migration is most frequent for the working NGOs for many years have rebuilt houses, provided member of the hazard-affected households in the eight radios, and delivered warnings in cyclone prone areas. hotspots areas. About 37 percent households of the surveyed areas depend on temporal migration (rural and In both the river and flash flood prone hotspots, adap- urban) to adapt with the natural hazards. In the hazard tive capacities are also low because there is little people prone areas about one-third (32 percent) of respondents can do to cope with the hazards. Like all other rural said they try to store food and drinking water, which people, their incomes mainly depended on agricultural, they can use after the natural hazards. Livestock is the but frequent floods destroy their crops and houses, second most valuable asset, after land, for the farmers of further diminishing their financial prospects. Moreover, rural Bangladesh, so they always try to take care of it. In river erosion is diminishing the productivity of their the hotspots areas, about one in five households (24 lands, making their lives even more precarious and percent) provide raised platforms for their livestock as uncertain. In the waterlogged prone hotspot, people are an adaptation measure for climatic hazards. House rich in human capital and they have better education repairing and rebuilding (39 percent) also are adaptation and skills compared to people in other areas. People are practices and options. The adaptive capacity of a trying to diversify their livelihood options and move community or household depends on its range of toward fishing, businesses, or services. They have better resources, which if sufficient can enable it to moderate roads and access to safe water and electricity compared potential damages and cope with the consequences of to other areas. Moreover, the presence of markets near climate change. the village allows people to sell the fish they catch, the handicrafts they make, and the livestock products they None of the hotspots have a high adaptive capacity, get. Social capital is also good in the area and the school which is understandable given their very poor asset base headmaster uses his links to fight for the problems of d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s xi this village. Their adaptive capacity is rated as medium, ladder. Social relations and health and hygienic condi- a little better than in the other hotspots. A similar situ- tions are also very poor. ation prevails in the drought prone hotspot, where although people lack good human capital, their natural The climate change-related hazards bring about multi- and physical assets are average. The proximity of the ple impacts on the communities which deteriorate their village to the upazilla (sub-district) town ensures that existing conditions and increase their vulnerabilities to people have access to lot of services and opportunities. further events. In order to cope and adapt to these The village has numerous schools, mosques, shops, and recurring events, the local people have adopted a variety basic institutions such as banks, health centers, govern- of mechanisms based on their indigenous knowledge ment offices, and police stations. and capacities. However, these practices are not enough to sustain their lives and livelihoods in the face of Adaptive capacity is lowest in the urban drainage frequent and intense natural disasters. The government, congestion prone hotspot, because people have few together with assistance from local NGOs and interna- options to diversify their livelihoods. Here, they have no tional donor agencies, should take initiatives to increase natural capital such as land or water bodies which they the adaptive capacities of the people either by reducing can use to make a living. Moreover, their education and their exposure to hazards and minimizing the damages skills are very low compared to other urban people, thus or by strengthening their asset base and thus building giving them little scope for moving up the income their capacities. 1 1. InTRoDuCTIon anD oVeRVIeW s Tu D Y R aT Io n a l e a nD a P P Ro aC h The EACC study has two broad objectives. The first is s uMMa RY of ea CC PR ojeCT anD Th e to help decision makers in developing countries to s oCI al Co MPonen T better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to design strategies to adapt to it. This Current estimates of the costs of the likely impacts of entails costing, prioritizing, sequencing, and integrating climate change on developing countries and of the robust adaptation strategies into development plans and needed adaptation measures are in short supply, and the budgets. It also requires these strategies to deal explic- ones available are rather crude and simplistic. This is itly with a high degree of uncertainty, potentially high largely because the economics of adaptation to climate future damages, and competing needs for investments in change (EACC) is relatively a new area of research. At social and economic development. the same time, an understanding of the full array of adaptation options, including institutional and policy The second objective of the study is to provide new and changes, is crucial to prioritizing the most effective additional resources to help developing countries meet adaptation strategies. Better estimates of the overall adaptation costs, especially in supporting their most budget implications of implementing "climate-resilient vulnerable populations; in other words, to support coun- development" are needed both to enable developing try processes to develop climate-resilient development countries to implement their national development plans and budgets. strategies and to inform discussions concerning possible international assistance. In order to fill these gaps, a The Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies partnership has been formed between the World Bank (BIDS) has been responsible for carrying out the and the governments of the United Kingdom, the research on the social component of the EACC study in Netherlands, and Switzerland, in which the World Bangladesh. This report is based on the findings of the Bank has been tasked with leading the technical aspects field work conducted in different climate change related of the EACC study to be funded by the three countries. vulnerable areas across the country. The rationale for this study was to understand the social dimensions of In particular, the study builds on learning from six climate change adaptation and related elements of risk country case studies covering a variety of environmental, management, resilience, and social protection. social, cultural, and economic conditions, thus allowing for a degree of generalization and replication to most, if The Social Component study has two study objectives. not all, developing-country contexts. These six countries The objective of the field study is to identify the social are Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, and livelihood groups vulnerable to climate change or and Vietnam. climate variability; understand capital asset 2 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h transformation capability of the villagers in each floods as well as increasing soil salinity. These are hotspot; recognize and categorize climate change projected to increase due to expected changes in precip- related hazards facing people in those hotspots, identify itation, recession of Himalayan glaciers, and sea level a range of adaptation measures in practice; and under- rise (Watson et. al. 1998). Because large populations stand villagers' aspirations and concerns regarding live in environmentally fragile areas such as coastal reduction of vulnerability and improvement of zones and islands that are devastated regularly by flash livelihoods. and riverine floods and are dependent on natural resources, they would become highly vulnerable to the The objective of the Participatory Scenario impacts of climate change. Development Workshop (PSD) at the local, regional, and national level was to help the local and national While significant progress has been made in actors explore different climate futures and engage in Bangladesh over recent decades, women still predomi- structured debates around development priorities and nate among the poorest because of their limited mobil- relevant adaptation responses at the local, national, and ity and access to resources or information; this is regional levels. In other words, the purpose was to draw reflected in the deaths of nearly five times more on both vulnerability and sustainable livelihoods females than males in floods and cyclones (Aguilar conceptual frameworks to validate adaptation options 2008). Widespread poverty has made Bangladesh and pathways through PSD workshops with stakehold- extremely vulnerable to the effects of tropical storms ers at each level. This also helped stakeholders to assess and flooding. Almost 50percent of deaths from trade-offs and synergies between types of adaptation, cyclones worldwide occur in Bangladesh, even though development strategies, and enabling policies for future it experiences only 1 percent of all cyclones. (Amadore adaptation. et al. 1996). This happens as thousands of people of Bangladesh live in climate vulnerable areas. As This research report thus put forward the study outputs women's participation in paid work outside home is describing the existing asset base of the hotspots and low in South Asia, especially in Bangladesh, changes in the future aspiration; livelihood practices; climatic crop, fishery, poultry and livestock production could hazards, impacts and vulnerabilities of the hotspots; severely impact the livelihoods and well-being of coping mechanisms and adaptation practices; followed women and their children. Given the gender differen- by recommendations from the stakeholders. tial in vulnerability, it is important to have social assessments and institutional analyses that include Con C ePT ual fRaMe WoRK gender-based experiences in collective actions and support from local institutions/networks when devel- Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to oping inclusive strategies for increased climate resil- climate change which also has a high population ience. A gender-sensitive analysis is also important to density. The combination of a high level of poverty and direct aid and plan for full and equitable recovery in a depleted ecological system make the country more the case of frequent climatic events such as floods and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which cyclones, whose frequency and intensity are expected threatens the development achievements over the last to rise with climate change. Furthermore, gender- decades. The increasing risks from climate change, sea sensitive analysis is important to ensure women's level rise, natural and man-made hazards--such as participation in long term climate change adaptation cyclones, storm surge, flooding, land erosion, water strategies, which might have been constrained due to logging and salinity intrusion in soil and water--have their traditional social norms in Bangladesh. adversely affected livelihoods of people living in envi- ronmentally fragile areas. It has been estimated that a Figure 1 illustrates the generic links of climate change one meter rise in sea level would inundate 18 percent impacts with livelihood issues (Asaduzzaman et al of the total land in Bangladesh, directly threatening 2005). Climate change is expected to have several about 11 percent of the population. Bangladesh experi- impacts. Of these, above study pick out those which are ences frequent natural disasters such as cyclones and likely to be of major importance in Bangladesh. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 3 fIGuRe 1. PaThWaYs of lIVelIhooD, GenDeR anD fooD seCuRITY IMPaCTs Trade Food security Nutrition Trend and sudden shocks Regional distribution of global output Agriculture Health Poor and non poor Livelihood impact through Adjustment mechanism Climate change impact Infrastructure employment income consumption such as migration crime changes Industry Regional dimensions coastal and inland Disasters Gender differentiated impacts ClIM aTe ChanGe ­ PoV eRTY n ex u s is caused by the low flow of fresh water from the Ganges and the ingress of salt water from Bay of Bangladesh's high vulnerability to climate change is due Bengal. The climate change and the possible sea level to a number of hydro-geological and socio-economic rise is likely to inundate the coastal wetlands and factors that include: (a) its geographical location in lowlands, accentuate coastal erosion, increase the South Asia; (b) its flat deltaic topography with very low frequency and severity of floods, and create drainage elevation; (c) its extreme climate variability that is and irrigation problems. Sea level rise from the south governed by monsoon patterns and which results in and enhanced Himalayan snow and glacial melt from acute water distribution over space and time; (d) its the north will inundate large parts of Bangladesh in high population density and poverty incidence; and (e) addition to today's flood-affected areas. its majority of population being dependent on crop agriculture which is highly influenced by climate vari- The environment of Bangladesh contributes to the ability and change (Ahmed 2006). nation's poverty, but it also is a mere victim of overex- ploitation and degradation. The frequently occurring The country faces too much water in monsoon season, hydro-geophysical hazards and extreme weather events causing floods, and receives too little water in dry have reduced streams of ecosystem services for the poor, season. This situation will be aggravated in a warmer which in turn has shrunk their livelihood opportunities. climate, resulting in more severe droughts and increas- Subsistence-based agriculture has suffered the worst ing floods. It is projected that the possible sea level rise blow as a result of the proliferation of an input-depen- will inundate coastal areas of Bangladesh, thus forcing dent modern methods that constantly pushed the millions of people from their homes and livelihoods. already marginalized farmers, who do not have the Salinity has already increased in the coastal zones. This capacity to invest more to achieve for higher returns. 4 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Ke Y aR eas of InquIRY longer duration of flooding) and a reduction in the Boro rice area (which will be limited due to constraints in asset and livelihood systems irrigation), the total area suitable for rice production may in the future stagnate or possibly decrease. Of the Livelihoods three varieties of rice grown in Bangladesh, the aus rice (grown during the summer monsoon period under rain- Various groups in society will experience the impacts of fed conditions) seems to be the most vulnerable. climate change in various degrees depending upon their initial economic conditions (poor or non-poor), location A GCM-coupled crop modeling exercise carried out by (coastal or non-coastal, rural or urban), and gender Karim et al. (1998) reported that Aus production would (NAPA 2005). Not only will subsistence agriculture be suffer by 27 per cent while wheat production would affected adversely; the food security of poor people in decline by 61 per cent under a moderate climate change general will be at risk, leading to widespread malnutri- scenario. Under a severe climate change scenario associ- tion. Extensive water-logging, which is already being ated with 60 per cent moisture stress, the yield of Boro experienced, may worsen, causing adverse health effects might decline by 55 to 62 per cent. It is interesting to due to outbreaks of pathogen-driven and water borne note that, CO2 fertilization would be able to prevent diseases. crop loss to a certain degree, but with increasing temperature the potential yield loss could not be Physical vulnerability varies across the coastal region. completely offset by an increase in CO2 concentration For example: in Khulna region waterlogging, soil salin- in the atmosphere (Ahmed, 2006). ity, and lack of cultivable land are significant; in Barisal region, tidal flooding, cyclone/tidal bore, salinity, silt- Coastal Shrimp Culture ation, and rat/insect infestation are problems; in Noakhali region, cyclone/tidal bores, river erosion, and Stronger surge and tidal bores would increase the drainage congestion are the most adverse physical or potential for saline water to overtop coastal embank- natural vulnerabilities; and in Chittagong region ments. Shrimp farms outside embankments create cyclone/tidal bore, different types of flood, and deterio- earthen mini-polders, locally known as ghers, to produce ration of soil fertility due to salinity are major physical shrimp in captivity. Currently this is a big business in vulnerabilities (Rahman et al. 2007). the coastal districts of Cox's Bazaar, Satkhira, Khulna and Bagerhat. High tides would certainly threaten these Lack of employment opportunities and low wage rates ghers, both inside and outside embankments. On the seem to be the major vulnerability factors among the other hand, salinity ingress in new areas to the north of rural wage laborers. Physical vulnerabilities--such as current shrimp growing zones would facilitate shrimp lack of cultivable land and climate change stresses that business there. have an effect on agriculture--ultimately convert into lack of employment opportunities for the wage laborers A general rise in surface water temperature would also (Rahman et al. 2007). subject shrimp to heat-related stress. It is found that, if the temperature crosses a threshold of 32°C, the small Crop Agriculture and Food Security shrimp fries would show very high rates of mortality. In April the temperature is already quite high. The production of crops in Bangladesh is constrained Simultaneously, warmer water might appear conducive by too much water during the wet season and too little for algal bloom, which would have detrimental effects during the dry season. The total irrigated area is 4.4 on shrimp growth. (Ahmed 2006). million ha, which is more than 50 percent of the poten- tially irrigable area of 7.12 million ha (NAPA 2005). Livestock Together with the possible reduction in the Aman rice Prolonged flood and cyclonic storm surges cause live- area (as a result of greater spread of flood waters, and stock death through a number of direct and indirect d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 5 mechanisms. During droughts, livestock in Bangladesh salinity of the soil would increase. As a result the do not suffer death, but lack of water increases their growth of freshwater loving species would be severely vulnerability to diseases. Since climate change would affected. Eventually the species offering dense canopy increase susceptibility to natural disasters, the antici- cover would be replaced by non-woody shrubs and pated toll on livestock sector would be quite high. bushes, while the overall forest productivity would decline significantly. The degradation of forest quality The suffering of livestock in the coastal zone is much might cause a gradual depletion of rich diversity of the higher than in other parts of the country. Livestock forest flora and fauna of the Sundarbans ecosystem. The density is relatively low in the coastal areas, particu- forest floor may be experiencing a natural uplift due to larly in the southwestern parts of the country. The sedimentation, but whether natural uplift is strong gradual increase in salinity increases competition for enough to counterbalance sea level rise is very uncertain. freshwater resources. Animals used to have the least In a worst case scenario 32 cm of sea level rise may access to freshwater sources during the dry season. flood 84 percent of the Sundarbans, possibly by 2050; Due to drinking of poor quality water, these animals with an 88 cm sea level rise possible by 2100, the whole fell victim to diseases, which reduced their economic of Sundarbans would be lost (NAPA 2005). efficiency (draught power, milk production, etc.) (Ahmed 2006). Vulnerability and Climate Change Forestry and Biodiversity A wide range of social and economic factors has a direct and indirect bearing on human vulnerability to Bangladesh has a number of natural forest ecosystems environmental change, including poverty, inequality, including inland Sal forest (Shorea Robusta), dipterocarp and the availability of natural resources. Poverty is forest, savanna, bamboo bushes in the hilly regions, and generally recognized as one of the most important freshwater swamp forests. It also has littoral mangrove causes of vulnerability to environmental threats because ecosystems and swamp forests. In addition to the forests the poor tend to have much lower coping capacities the country also has a very rich aquatic biodiversity and thus bear a disproportionate burden of the impact (with over 400 species) and bird and plant life. The of disasters, conflict, drought, desertification, and biodiversity (both in the forested areas as well as else- pollution. where) is under threat due to human interventions, fragmenting of habitats, etc. Vulnerability is a subjective concept that includes three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of It was found that increased rainfall during the monsoon the affected system. The sensitivity and adaptive capacity season would cause increased runoff in forest floors in particular depend on a range of socio-economic char- rather than infiltration into the soil. As a result. there acteristics. Several measures of social well-being, such as would be enhanced soil erosion which would be more income and income inequality, nutritional status, access pronounced in sparse hill forest areas. Prolonged floods to lifelines such as insurance and social security, and so would severely affect growth of many timber species, on, can affect baseline vulnerability to a range of climatic while causing a high incidence of mortality for risks. Other factors might be risk-specific; for example, Artocarpus species. In contrast, enhanced evapo-transpi- the proportion of rain-fed (as opposed to irrigated) agri- ration in winter would cause increased moisture stress, culture might only be relevant for assessing vulnerability especially in the Barind and Madhupur Tract areas, to drought (Agrawala et al. 2003). affecting the Sal forest ecosystem. The tea plantations in the north-east would also suffer due to moisture stress. Poor Hit Hardest It was found that the Sundarbans mangrove forest (in Poor people are the most susceptible members of soci- southwestern Bangladesh) would be the most severely ety to the destruction caused by cyclones and flooding, affected by climate change. Due to a combination of and thus will be the primary victims of climate change, high evapo-transpiration and low-flow in winter, the for a variety of reasons: 6 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h · Poverty exacerbates, and is exacerbated by, the growing economy and population, and massive river sedi- impacts of climate change; mentation and bank erosion." Delineation of flood risk · Poor people's livelihoods are highly dependent on zones, which will help minimize large-scale damages to natural resources, which are highly climate-sensi- assets is highlighted as a policy item under section 4.2 tive; they also are the primary producers in our titled Planning and Management of Water Resources. society. Section 4.2j states the necessity of undertaking ... · The poor are already struggling to cope with the "comprehensive development and management of the main extreme weather events; rivers through a system of barrages and other structural and · Poverty-stricken people often lack infrastructure for non-structural measures'. The policy calls for developing dwelling units or farms, which makes them vulner- "...early warning and flood-proofing systems to manage... able to natural disasters; and flood and drought." The same thematic policy further · Their poverty makes it difficult to cope with even a mentions that "... the government will de-silt water small hike in production costs. courses to maintain proper drainage". The policy theme titled Water Supply and Sanitation, under section 4.6, There are five categories of livelihood capital assets clearly states "salinity intrusions from sea water deep into (human, social, natural, physical, and financial) and the land in the south west are rendering groundwater unfit these play decisive roles in determining one's contexts of for consumption." Unfortunately, no policy item was vulnerability. It is important to develop socio-economic prescribed to tackle this issue. NWP also focuses on profiles for the major livelihood groups in an area to water use efficiency, regional cooperation for trans- establish links between livelihood activities and climate- boundary rivers and addresses water demands for related risks. Application of the Sustainable Livelihoods Sundarban forest. Framework (SLF) can be of great help to this end. Once the interaction between Livelihood Capital Assets The NWP was followed by the National Water and agents of change under altered climate conditions Management Plan (NWMP) in 2001 that looked at are superimposed, the effect of climate change on liveli- implementation and investment responses to address hood strategies and livelihood outcomes may easily be the critical priorities identified in the NWP. The identified, as indicated in the SLF. A number of tools 25-year planning document emphasized the importance may be employed for such a participatory process. The of management of recurring floods, instead of contain- use of SLF, involving a series of Focus Group ment by erecting investment-intensive embankments. Discussions and Key Informants' Interviews or the Given the criticality of climate change impacts on water much elaborated Participatory Vulnerability Assessment resources, it is noteworthy that NWP does not explicitly (PVA) technique of Action Aid International, may be mention this issue. NWMP, however, recognizes climate utilized for these purposes (Oxfam, 2008). change as one of the factors determining future water supply and demand. Policy and Institutional framework for Climate Resilience In assessing the Baseline Scenario, section 3.6.5 of NWMP briefly outlines the major impacts of climate Bangladesh has put in place a number of sectoral poli- change on rainfall, drainage congestion, sea level rise, cies and plans (particularly during the 1990s) that bear and natural disasters. Stating that the impacts of climate upon its ability to cope with current climate risks, and change on Bangladesh are of great importance, section to some extent the additional risks posed by climate 3.8.1 also recognizes climate change issues as a major change. The National Water Policy (NWP), promul- knowledge gap at the national level. This may have been gated in 1999 is the first ever policy document on water true for year 2001; however, extensive researches on resources management for the country. NWP in its these issues have since filled this gap. NWMP has introductory section states, "Water resources management emphasized arresting in-stream salinity through scien- in Bangladesh faces immense challenges, the most critical of tific interventions. If planned and implemented early, which are alternating flood and water scarcity during the the southward push of the isohaline line above thresh- wet and the dry seasons, ever-expanding water needs of a old levels will not only help reduce in-stream salinity, it d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 7 will also facilitate lowering of soil salinity by increasing and creating income and employment opportunities, chances of flushing of crop lands with river water. especially for rural women. As expected, about a half of Section 8.5.1 on Objectives of Agriculture and Water the policy documents deal with the crop sub-sector at Management says "...climate change studies have indicated large, although the contents of these documents deal that by the middle of this century evaporation precipitation mainly with cereal crops, especially rice. The Non-crop ratios may increase significantly during the pre-saturation sub-sector, covering fishery, livestock and forestry, and establishment phase of the Kharif I and Rabi rice appears less prominently both in terms of coverage and crops." While discussing management of water resources focus. The National Agricultural Policy (NAP), 1999, in coastal areas, the same section mentions, "... sea level emphasizes that the goal of food self-sufficiency and rise and increased tidal ranges will bring about further dependable food security can be achieved only through hydrological and morphological changes." However, in the efficient delivery of inputs and support services. The context of water-related disaster management plans, policy is strongly biased toward the economic aspects, NWMP does not mention climate change as a factor giving little emphasis to the social and the environmen- influencing the frequency and intensity of future tal aspects of agricultural development. Concretely, the catastrophes. government has adopted an approach to chemical agri- culture and is focused on cropping systems rather than Bangladesh's National Environmental Management on integrated farming systems. Action Plan (NEMAP), which was published in 1995, does not explicitly discuss climate change. NEMAP The main goal of the National Agricultural Extension does, however, add a cautionary note on the environ- Policy (NAEP), 1996, is to encourage the various part- mental damages that may result from structural flood ners and agencies within the national agricultural exten- control measures--which might highlight some sion system to provide efficient and effective services conflicts with structural adaptation responses (such as which complement and reinforce each other in an effort the construction of barrages) highlighted under the to increase the efficiency and productivity of agriculture NWP and NWMP, and other environmental conse- in Bangladesh. Other policies in this sector include quences such as migration and breeding of fish-stock. National Fishery Policy, 1998; Seed Policy, 1993; Similar to NEMAP, the National Land Use Policy Livestock Policy and Action Plan, 2005 and National (NLUP) does not make direct reference to climate Food Policy, 2004. However, none of these policies change. NLUP however aims to bring 25 percent of the address the impacts of climate change on agriculture land under forest cover and highlights mangrove planta- and livelihoods and hence, mentions no preparations in tions in char lands, and coastal green belts more gener- this regard. The Actionable Policy Brief (APB) 2004, ally as a priority. It also advocates conservation of the last in this series of policies, is also based on the existing forest lands, including the Sundarbans. These overarching national goal of food security, which basi- priorities of NLUP are also echoed the National Forest cally means sufficient cereal stock in the country. The Policy (NFoP) that was initially formulated in 1979 APB is built on a solid conceptual framework, focused and revised in 1994--although the goal of NFoP is to vision for the future, indicators of comparative advan- bring 20 percent (as opposed to 25 percent in NLUP) tages, competitive strength and profitability that will of the total land under forest cover. Forest conservation guide the development of each crop subsector, priorities in NFoP and NLUP could help reduce some constraints to moving forward and key challenges that of the other stresses on ecosystems such as the must be faced in achieving the overall objective of Sundarbans, thereby increasing their resilience to the promoting food security for all in the country. impacts of climate change. The coast of Bangladesh is known as a zone of vulnera- There is a plethora of policy/ strategy documents rele- bilities as well as opportunities. To reduce coastal vant to broad agriculture and rural development in vulnerabilities, improve the livelihood of the coastal Bangladesh. These documents are generally compatible people, ensure the optimum used of coastal resources in terms of their avowed goals of rapid poverty reduc- and create an enabling institutional environment, the tion, increasing productivity and profitability of farming, Ministry of Water Resources formulated the Coastal 8 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Zone Policy (CZPo) in 2005. The coastal zone policy is what the relevant regional and sectoral plans would unique in the sense that it is a harmonized policy that consider to address the key issues like risk reduction, transcends sectoral perspectives. This policy explicitly capacity building, climate change adaptation, livelihood identifies that the livelihoods and wellbeing of people in security, gender mainstreaming, community empower- coastal areas have direct correlation with exogenous ment and response, and recovery management. The plan phenomena influencing them. "Section 4.3: Reduction carries out detailed discussion on the causes, trends, and of Vulnerabilities" mentions, "Disasters like cyclone, drain- effects of important hazards such as flood, drought, age congestion, land erosion and drought that take toll on cyclone, storm surge, arsenic contamination, salinity life and property and depletion of natural resource base that intrusion, riverbank erosion, and others. However, this supports particularly the poor. Majority households are section doesn't mention climate change as a dominating vulnerable to climate change." In this regard, the policy factor in altering disaster patterns. The Disaster focuses on comprehensive disaster management, which Management Action Matrix outlines major strategic includes maintenance and construction of cyclone shel- goals and key targets, of which one of the key targets is ters and sea dykes and enhancing coping mechanisms. "Establish an Integrated Approach to disaster management Impacts of salinity intrusion on coastal resources have including climate change and climate variability impacts". been identified and development of salt-tolerant crop A number of Action Agendas for 2007­2015 have been varieties, construction of freshwater reservoirs, and rain- mentioned under this target. These include: giving water harvesting have been suggested. Measures will be capacity to the Climate Change Cell within the taken for afforestation in the coastal areas including Department of Environment (DoE); developing newly accreted chars. Section 4.5, 4.6 and 4.7 addresses scenario and prediction models and conduct research to issues of equitable distribution of benefits, human determine climate variability impacts for Bangladesh; development of disadvantaged communities, women identifying adaptation options through action research empowerment and a participatory approach in deter- and incorporating this knowledge in disaster risk reduc- mining the needs of the coastal people. "Section 4.8.3: tion program designs. Climate Change," a separate part dedicated to climate change, states, "Implementation of adaptive measures iden- People in Places: socio-spatial approaches to tified in relation to climate change for coastal zone and adaptation resources shall be gradually undertaken." Spatial Variation The Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) was approved by GoB in 2003, Levels of poverty vary substantially across the country bringing about a paradigm shift in disaster management and are strongly correlated with spatial distribution of from conventional response and relief practice to a more food insecurity. The United Nations World Food comprehensive risk reduction culture. Standing Orders Program (WFP) has reported that the poorest upazilas have been prepared with the avowed objective of can be found in the north-west, the coastal belt, making the concerned persons understand their duties Mymensingh, Netrakona, Bandarban and Rangamati. In and responsibilities regarding disaster management at terms of absolute numbers, districts with more than one all levels, and accomplishing them. All Ministries, million people living in extreme poverty include Divisions/Departments and Agencies shall prepare their Sirajganj, Naogaon, Bogra, Mymensingh, and own Action Plans in respect of their responsibilities Chittagong (NAPA 2005). under the Standing Orders for efficient implementation. According to "The Bangladesh Rural Poverty Mapping Project," the areas with highest incidence of poverty are The draft National Plan for Disaster Management the depressed basins in Sunamganj, Habiganj, and 2007­2015 is an outcome of the national and interna- Netrokona districts in the greater Sylhet region; the tional commitments of GoB and the Ministry of Food northwestern districts of Jamalpur, Kurigram, and Disaster Management (MoFDM) for addressing Nilphamari, and Nawabganj; and, in the south, Cox's the disaster risks comprehensively. It is indicative to Bazar and coastal islands of Bhola, Hatia, and Sandeep. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 9 The areas with low levels of poverty are the greater few of the biophysical variables correlate significantly Dhaka and Barisal regions, and Bogra, Pabna, and with the poverty indices. The significant ones include the Jessore regions. This spatial pattern is similar with prevalence of high land, low and very low-lying land, and regard to incidence of extreme poverty. heavy textured soil types. These partly explain the associ- ation of high poverty incidence with the haor and the Possible determinants contributing to this depressing hilly areas. Climatic variables such as rainfall availability state of poverty hotspots would be other aspects of emerge as insignificant, partly because of the non-linear human wellbeing and deprivation, including people's relationship of rainfall with poverty. Other factors, assets (human, financial, and physical capital); their particularly irrigation, mask the significance of associated opportunities (natural resources endowment, accessibil- climatic constraints, particularly drought, in explaining ity, and migration); and their vulnerabilities or suscepti- poverty over geographical space. bilities to environmental stresses. Among the coastal zones, poverty incidence is low in The pockets of high poverty incidence generally coin- the western part toward Khulna (where livestock cide with the ecologically poor areas of Bangladesh: ownership, educational attainment, and prevalence of clayey soils are high) and is high in the eastern part 1. The low-lying depression area, called haor, in the toward Chittagong. The incidence of poverty and north-east; extreme poverty is generally lower in the western part, 2. The drought-prone area on relatively higher land in covering southern Rajshahi and northern Khulna the north-west; Divisions. In fact, this part has more high land area and 3. Several upazilas fringing the major rivers, particu- is more drought-prone but the higher irrigation cover- larly along the Jamuna River; and age is key in achieving high productivity despite the 4. Several of the south-eastern upazilas, including the biophysical constraints. The eastern part is relatively Chittagong Hill Tract. better endowed (with more extensive medium and low land, higher rainfall and educational attainment); yet Despite the apparent geographical association of the these resources do not seem to have been effectively poverty pockets with ecologically unfavourable areas, only deployed for improving livelihoods (Pheng 2003). 10 2. soCIal DIMensIons of ClIMaTe impacts, agriculture is consequently ranked as having less vulnerability than the other sectors. ChanGe In banGlaDesh flood e x Pe CT e D PhYsICal IMPaCTs of ClIM aTe ChanG e In banGla Desh The predicted increase in rainfall, changes in its timing, and melting of glaciers in the Himalayas will exacerbate Water resources are ranked as the greatest concern the flood situation by increasing the frequency, duration, because flooding is already an important issue for the and extent of flooding. Rising sea levels will retard the country. Increased flooding will be significant in terms flow velocities of the major rivers, particularly at their of damage to infrastructure and livelihoods at the pres- confluence points, resulting in sedimentation in river ent stage of development. The combination of increased beds and decreasing river gradients. glacial melt and increased monsoon intensity makes increased flooding more likely to occur. A rise in sea level would not only inundate low-lying areas along the coast, it would also create a favorable Bangladesh's coastal resources are ranked as next most condition for saline waters to overtop the flood protect- vulnerable because the country exists mainly in a delta ing coastal embankments, especially when induced by with most of its population and resources at low eleva- strong winds. Breaching of existing coastal embankments tions. Sea level is likely to rise; and indeed it is more will also inundate land with saline waters (Ahmed 2006). certain than increased flooding. However, the full impacts of sea level rise may not be realized for many In the short term, faster melting of glaciers is likely to decades, thus yielding it second place in the risk increase water flowing down rivers like the Ganges/ ranking. Padma in the spring and monsoon months, which already contributes (along with rainfall) to devastating Human health is ranked below these other sectors river floods. However, in the long term the shrinking because of the significant uncertainty about many and thinning of Himalayan glaciers will lead to short- impacts, although it is likely that climate change will ages of water in rivers, and rivers may even disappear present increased health risks to Bangladesh. In particu- permanently in some places once the glaciers have lar, increased flooding could threaten human health completely melted (Pender, 2008). through drowning and spread of disease. Drought Finally, agriculture is last because a number of studies estimate increased yields with small amounts of warm- It is prognosticated that, under climate change scenario, ing, but decreased yields with larger levels of warming. evapo-transpiration will increase significantly, especially With the mixture of beneficial and initially adverse during the post-monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons, in d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 11 the backdrop of diminishing rainfall in winter and expected to be at low, medium and high risk, respec- already erratic rainfall variability over time and space tively, of being permanently flooded by the sea (Pender (Ahmed, 2006). About 12,220 km2 will be transformed 2008). to very severe class against the existing 3,639 km2 (a more than three-fold increase) under severe changes in salinity Intrusion climatic system during Rabi season. During Kharif four times more area will be changed to very severe class Changes in the surface water salinity pattern due to a from the severe and moderate areas. The worst affected 30 cm rise of sea level revealed that the present dry regions would be north-west, north-central, and south- season saline front (2 dS/m) is expected to move 30 km west where both irrigated and rainfed crops would be to 50 km North, affecting most of Khulna, Jessore, affected (Rahman, et al. 2007). Barisal, Patuakhali, and Noakhali (greater) districts and parts of Faridpur and Comilla districts. With a 1 m rise sea level Rise of sea level, the saline water front will move far North on the Northeastern side of Bangladesh. Most of Processes not related to global warming in Bangladesh Jessore, Faridpur, Comilla, and part of Dhaka (greater) that are actively causing sea level rise include: districts will be affected by saline surface water intru- sion. Most of Barisal, Patuakhali, Sundarbans, Bhola, · Tectonic subsidence, which means that coastal Hatia, and Sandwip will be directly inundated by saline/ Bangladesh is very gradually sinking due to the brackish water or will have serious saline water logging weight of the silt being deposited by its rivers and problem. Salt water intrusion along the Meghna River the continued rise of the Himalayas , which is valley may reach up to Mymensingh and Sylhet districts slightly tipping Bangladesh seawards; (Rahman, et al. 2007). · Compaction of peat layers, which are soft layers of organic dead plant and animal material that are Currently, about 6 million people are already exposed to gradually being squeezed tightly together by the high salinity (>5 ppt), but due to climate change this is weight of the land above; and expected to increase to 13.6 million in 2050 and 14.8 · Human activities such as removal of water from the million in 2080, with the population in Khulna, Satkhira ground for irrigation, which speeds compaction, ,and Bagerhat most affected. As well as making house- and the building of dams, dykes, embankments, and hold water supply problematic, salinity negatively affects other measures to prevent floods, for these prevent agricultural production; a study in Khulna, Bagerhat, and new layers of silt raising the land level as older lay- Satkhira districts of southwest region of Bangladesh ers compact and sink (Pender 2008). found that the suitable area for transplanted Aman rice cultivation will reduce from 88 percent to 60 percent Bangladesh has been ranked as the third most vulnera- with a 32 cm rise in sea level and 12 percent with an 88 ble country in the world to sea level rise in terms of cm rise in sea level (Pender 2008). the number of people affected, and in the top ten in terms of percentage of population living in the low Drainage Congestion elevation coastal zone. Currently almost 40 million live in the coastal areas of Bangladesh, but depending on Climate change will cause drainage congestion (result- the rate of population growth, by 2080 when the situa- ing in waterlogging and localized flooding) due to a tion begins to get more serious 51 to 97 million people number of factors: Firstly, the higher sea water levels could be living in this vulnerable area. In year 2050, means the rivers gradients are reduced; in other words assuming a sea level rise of 27 cm, around 26 million their slope from the mountains to the sea is not as people will be at a low risk and almost 7 million will steep, which will lead to higher river levels due to a be at medium risk of flooding, of which 58 percent backwater effect. Drainage congestion occurs mainly will be from Khulna, Jhalokati, Barisal, and Bagerhat from July to October when cultivation of transplanted districts. In year 2080, assuming a sea level rise of 62 Aman rice is damaged if water depth is more than 30cm cm, 17 million, 12 million and 14 million people are for overthree3 days (Pender 2008). 12 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Coastal erosion homesteads are often damaged or devoured by rivers regularly. The lack of basic services and governance The total length of the Bangladesh coastline is 710 km, representation, and dependence on limited and season- and historically the coastline has undergone erosion and ally variable resource access, demands highly innovative deposition. However, the balance between the two is and diversified livelihood strategies in the Chars--but being affected by climate change, such as more powerful this also leads to considerable social inequity. High food cyclones and a higher sea level, with the result that more insecurity and low income results in the out migration erosion is likely to occur but less deposition of sediments. of at least one household member (usually adult male) to find employment, leaving women and children to In terms of area this means that 5,800 hectares of land subsist (Chowdhury). could be lost to sea erosion by 2030 and 11,200 hectares by 2075, together with 13,750 tons of foodgrain n aT Io n a l P l a n nIn G f oR C lI M aT e production by 2030 and 252,000 tons of foodgrain C h a nG e : n aPa a nD o T h eR s T RaTeG Ie s production by 2075. People will also be displaced, for example the island of Kutubdia, just off the coast of the Bangladesh has been preparing its medium-term southern district of Cox's Bazar, has shrunk by half in national development plan, known as the Five- Year less than 50 years and is expected to vanish completely Plan, since 1973. Along with the other sectoral develop- in another 70 years due to erosion, partly caused by the ment strategies, the Fourth Five Year Plan for the first 1991 cyclone (Pender 2008). time, and subsequently the Fifth Five-Year Plan (1997­2002) more urgently, tried to address the need Cyclones and storm surges for protection and conservation of the environment toward sustainable development of the economy. The As a result of climate change it is likely that future major environmental issues identified and addressed in tropical cyclones will become stronger, with larger peak the Fifth Five-Year Plan are natural disasters, industrial wind speeds and more heavy rainfall associated with pollution, health and sanitation, deforestation, desertifi- ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. cation, changes in climatic condition, salinity, and dete- The increased wind speeds resulting from higher sea riorating habitat of flora and fauna. Since the Fifth Five surface temperatures due to climate change means that Year Plan, there has been no other. storm surge heights will increase from 15% to 25% in the 2020s and 32% in the 2050s (Pender 2008). In 2005, the government prepared a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), which provides a comprehen- River bank erosion and Vulnerability of Charlands sive overview of the poverty situation in Bangladesh and opts for pro-poor economic growth. There are eight As most of the country is made up of soft silt soils, specific avenues--four strategic blocks and four support- riverbanks are very eroded by river currents and wave ing strategies--through which the goal of accelerated action. River bank erosion includes channel shifting, the poverty reduction will be pursued. The "Strategic Block creation of new channels during floods, bank slumping II: Critical Sectors for Pro-poor Economic Growth," due to undercutting, and local scour from turbulence section of the PRSP emphasizes the agricultural and caused by obstruction (Ahmed 2006). water development sectors and identifies that the coun- try's growth is highly dependent on natural resources An estimated 6.5 million people--around 5 percent of and is affected by natural disasters and degradation of the Bangladeshi population--live on the Chars, and of terrestrial and aquatic resources. The water resources the total land area of the country, 5 percent is Char, management thus identifies the major issues of concern which comes to about a total area of approximately as floods, drainage congestion, droughts, cross-boundary 7,200 square kilometers. The Char dwellers mainly flows, river erosion and accretion, cyclones, water quality depend on agriculture and agriculture-related activities. and rights, surface water salinity, groundwater quality, Opportunities for off-farm activities are marginal. As a climate change, and environmental management. The result of river erosion, cultivable land, crops, and section on "Supporting Strategy IV: Caring for the d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 13 Environment and Sustainable Development," mentions, change. It outlines 15 large-scale projects divided into `Human lives and livelihood in Bangladesh are intricately intervention and facilitating-type measures and based intertwined with nature. Consequently, no process of devel- on certain pre-selected criteria. opment and eradication of poverty can be conceived of with- out putting caring for environment and sustainable In the aftermath of the COP13 at Bali, Indonesia, the development at the centre-stage.' The focus in this section GoB increasingly felt the need for a climate change is two-fold: conservation of natural resources such as strategy to carry forward and coordinate activities in agricultural land, forests, biodiversity, and combating support of the Bali Action Plan. Subsequently, in 2008 pollution of air, and surface and ground water. the Government developed the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) through Of the 18 policy matrices outlined at the end of the a fully consultative process involving government, civil PRSP, "Policy Matrix 7: Comprehensive Disaster society, and development partners. Management Plan towards Poverty Reduction and Growth," indicates mainstreaming disaster management The BCCSAP is presented in two parts. The first part into national policies, institutions, and development provides the background based on physical and climatic process; and strengthening capacity and enhancing contexts, core socio-economic realities and policies in the knowledge on risk reductions. It recognizes the National country, and the consequent rationale for a strategy on Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) as an ongoing climate change. The thrust of the strategy is on sustain- activity to address some of the pertinent climate change able development, poverty reduction, and increased well- issues. "Policy Matrix 18: Environment and Sustainable being of all vulnerable groups in society with special Development," identified the integration of climate emphasis on gender sensitivity. The second part elaborates change adaptation in all policies, programs and projects a set of programs based upon six pillars or broad areas of as one of the key targets. Capacity building for integrat- intervention namely: food security; social protection and ing climate change into water and agriculture sectors health; comprehensive disaster management; infrastruc- and promotion of community based adaptation projects ture; research and knowledge management; mitigation to address adverse effects of climate, have been and low carbon development; and capacity building and mentioned as future priorities under this target. institutional strengthening. The BCCSAP sums up Bangladesh's current thinking on desirable activities to Also in 2005, the National Adaptation Program of build climate resilience into the economy and society Action (NAPA) for Bangladesh was prepared by the through adaptation to climate change as well as mitiga- Ministry of Environment and Forest (MOEF) as a tion for a low carbon development path. The implemen- response to the decision of the Seventh Session of the tation of the BCCSAP will be financed through the Conference of the Parties (COP7) of the United Government's own resources and external support that Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change may be available from the development partners, as well (UNFCCC). NAPA has prepared the adaptation as the specific international funds created for the purpose. measures as a set of actions complementary to national goals and objectives of other multilateral environmental o V eRV I eW o f s o C I a l V u l n eRa b IlI T Y agreements to which Bangladesh is one of the signato- I n b a nG l aDe s h ries. NAPA provides detailed discussions of the histori- cal climatic events in Bangladesh and how these will be human health exacerbated by climate change with specific focus on relevant sectors. Apart from mentioning the adaptation The combination of higher temperatures and potential measures that have been undertaken till date by various increases in summer precipitation could create favorable government and non-government organizations in conditions for greater intensity or spread of many infec- Bangladesh, NAPA suggested future coping strategies tious diseases. Still, the perceived risk to human health and mechanisms based on existing practices, keeping is low relative to those in other sectors (such as water the main essence of adaptation science which is a resources) mainly because of the higher uncertainty process to adjust to the adverse situation of climate about many of the possible health outcomes. Increased 14 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h risk to human health from increased flooding and gender inequalities in various social, economic, and cyclones seems most likely. Changes in infectious political institutions. Women have limited access to and disease are less certain, as the causes of outbreaks of control over natural resources or money and, more infectious disease are quite complex and often do not importantly, are less mobile and have limited access to have a simple relationship with increasing temperature information. When a cyclone and floods hit Bangladesh or change in precipitation. However, in general, climate in 1991, the death rate for women was almost five times change is expected to present increased risks to human higher than for men. Many women are not allowed to health in Bangladesh, especially in light of the poor leave their homes without a male relative, and simply state of the country's public health infrastructure. Life waited for their relatives to return home and take them expectancy is only 61 years, and 61 percent of children to a safe place. Moreover, as in many Asian countries, are malnourished (NAPA 2005). most Bengali women have never learned to swim. In saline and drought prone areas where fresh water is in Gender situation short supply, further stress is put on women who have responsibility to supply it to their families; they are Women are more vulnerable than men generally to all often forced to walk long distances, risking their health kinds of disasters and climate-related impacts due to and their safety in the process (Pender 2008). 15 3. ReseaRCh MeThoDoloGY After primary selection of the hotspot sites through literature reviews and key informant interviews, a research officer from BIDS made a preliminary visit to ReseaRC h sTRaT eGY anD ques T I o n s each proposed hotspot to reconfirm the basis of selec- tion and suggest changes where necessary. One of the main purposes of the social component study was to understand the linkages between the adaptive M e Th o Ds : To o l s e M Pl oY eD capacity of the hotspot communities and the background of the communities in relation to their livelihood capital This involved the use of various tools such as village assets. This study focused more on the primary interven- mapping, village timeline, wealth ranking, FGDs, Self- tion of collecting data from the selected hotspots. To Assessments, and Household Surveys. make the outcomes useful, this study combined both qualitative and quantitative approaches of field investi- Village Mapping: The village mapping was really help- gations. Though quantitative data was collected via a ful for building rapport with the villagers. The purpose household questionnaire survey, focus was made on the of the village mapping was to understand the contextual qualitative to understand the livelihood strategies devel- reality as the villagers introduced their village by draw- oped in the changing climate variability. ing its map. The participants, who were local men of various ages, were given markers of different colors and sIT e s ele CTIon an D saMPl InG chart paper. They selected one person among them- selves who could write Bangla and draw the map. He Site selection and sampling were done through litera- first marked "North" on the chart paper and then drew ture review, key informant discussion, and preliminary the map of the village accordingly, indicating locations field visits. of agricultural lands, infrastructure, institutions, settle- ments, water bodies, forests, etc., while other partici- The literature review basically reviewed the existing pants gave suggestions where necessary. The activity research reports and policy documents to collect infor- generated a rich map of the village with properly mation on climate-related hazards and poverty in labeled legends and gave a visual understanding of the Bangladesh. The review was also important to identify village's livelihoods and possible sources of hazards from the most vulnerable areas and the macro, sectoral, and the village's surroundings. donor policies that influence activities in different areas. Village Timeline: The village timeline basically Key informants such as environmentalists, researchers, produced a listing of natural hazards that villagers had government officials, and NGO activists involved in faced for the last 30 years or more. A timeline was relevant sectors were asked to deliver opinions based on drawn on a large sheet of paper and the years were their work experiences. marked, starting from 1970 to 2009. Villagers were 16 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h asked to recall the extreme natural hazards that took in the field. In each hotspot villages separate FGDs place in the area, starting from the most recent ones were done with men and women. They were asked and moving backwards in time. In order to assist them some basic questions on livelihood options, socioeco- to remember the events, the time periods were linked to nomic scenario, climatic hazards, and adaptations of the political regimes. The participants were knowledgeable villagers and the future adaptation needs. As the facili- local people, school teachers, and general villagers. Once tator ran the session a note taker took written notes of the events were marked on the timeline, the villagers everything the participants said in the FGD. The were asked about the relative magnitudes of the events participants consisted of men and women of varying age in terms of intensity and damages caused, and how each and wealth class; from 18 years to 65 years and from of the hazards affected the village. All the information extremely poor to the richest, with different occupa- was written down on the chart paper. This exercise tions. Any disagreements among the participants that helped the study team to understand the village's history came up were also properly noted down. The facilitator, of climatic hazards and contextualize the present in rather than asking direct questions, tried to present a relation to past events. clear sequence of issues and their logical explanations, in a natural village setting, in the context of local liveli- Wealth Ranking: In doing the Wealth Ranking, the hood option available. The data obtained were analyzed villagers were asked to distinguish between existing by the participants of the FGD to reconfirm and at wealth classes on the basis of important characteristic times they were crosschecked with other villagers who such as monthly income, assets, savings, livestock, were not in the FGD. The FGDss were a key part of education, utilities, housing, land ownership, etc. It was the data collection strategy. administered following the traditional PRA process. Four-to-six different classes were identified in different Self-Assessments: The Self-assessments were partici- hotspot villages and they were written down on the patory exercise designed for the households to self- chart paper with the characteristic of the classes. Names assess their own levels of adaptive capacity. They were of the household heads of each class were asked and shown a list of indicators under each capital assets were written down on small cards and glued to the (human, social, financial, natural, and physical) and chart paper against the column of respective wealth asked to choose their most relevant three indicators class. The participants were then asked which class of which they consider to be most important in order to the household move up and down the social ladder adapt to climatic hazards. The indicators were then more quickly (or slowly) after a hazard, the reasons ranked 1, 2, and 3 and the participants were asked to behind such mobility, migration situation and causes of discuss and provide logic for choosing the indicators to it, where in ranking are the female-headed households, represent each capital asset. Each indicator had a score disabled persons, in-migrants, out-migrants, traditional from 1 to 5, where 1 = very poor, 2 = poor, 3 = average, leaders, and formal officeholders. This helped to identify 4 = good, 5 = very good. The participants were the vulnerable groups or families on the basis of their explained the scoring and they were asked to score adaptation history and trends. The wealth ranking was their chosen indicators on the basis of its current also used to select respondents for the Household adequacy for adaptation potential. They were corre- Survey from among the wealth categories, so that the spondingly asked about the reasons for dedicating the survey contained a fair percentage of respondents from particular score. The next question was what steps each of the categories, and none were left out. The should be taken to improve the current situation of that participants consisted of both local men and women particular indicator and who needs to do what. Lastly from different age groups. they were asked to give a future aspiration score to the indicators. All the discussions were written down on FGDs on Livelihoods, Climatic Hazards and the large sheets of paper in Bangla so that the partici- Adaptation Practices: As mentioned earlier, a qualita- pants could see clearly and make any necessary changes tive approach was the focus of the study, and a bottom- or suggestions. A note taker wrote down all the discus- up participatory strategy was followed throughout the sions. Later the data was processed on an Excel spread- fieldwork. The FGDs were one such research tool used sheet and asset pentagon for each of the eight hotspots d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 17 were prepared for comparison. The future aspiration 170 households interviewed) to gain in-depth informa- scores were also plotted on the same axis of the penta- tion about his/her family members, income sources, gon to find out which capital asset the villagers aspired assets, impact of hazard, adaptation techniques, the to the most. costs involved, future plans and the role of local/ government institutions in assisting the village commu- Quantitative Survey: A semi-structured questionnaire nity. The respondents were selected from range of was used to interview respondents from the eight vulnerability/livelihood profiles found from wealth rank hotspots (around 20 households per hotspot, totaling techniques. 18 4. fIelDWoRK ResulTs development, all of which may lead to differentiated patterns of vulnerability to climate change. oV e RVI e W anD InTRoDu CTIon To a Re a s The map of Bangladesh (Figure 2) marks the selected of In V es TIGaTI on hotspots of this study which are distributed across different zones of the country, having variation in socio- Due to a number of hydro-geological and socio- economic development, resource availability, and expo- economic factors, Bangladesh is one of the countries sure to natural hazards. Although a broad area or district most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. People has been pinpointed on the map, the field study has in Bangladesh live precariously close to the risks of been conducted in a narrow area, which is a particular cyclones, floods, and droughts and more than 100 million village or community settlement such as slum (Table 1). people live in rural areas. Based on the geographical loca- For each of these hotspots, detailed descriptions, encom- tion within the country, different areas are exposed to passing the geographical context, natural setting, demo- different types and magnitudes of natural hazards. graphic characteristics, asset base, and livelihood options, Taking all these various climatic events into account, a have been given in the following paragraphs. total of eight study sites or "hotspots" have been selected from the entire country. In the context of this study, the h o u s e h o lD a s s eT ba s e a nD term "hotspots" refers to the regions most responsive to V u l n eR a bI lI T Y climate change that are already vulnerable and are likely to suffer substantial impacts as a result of climate change. asset base: Hence, they represent areas where climate change-related intervention activities might be concentrated. As defined by the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, the capital assets owned by a community have been Bangladesh is exposed to a wide variety of climate grouped into five categories (human, social, physical, change hazards, which include drought, river floods, natural, and financial). While there are differences in flash floods, cyclones and tidal surges, salinity intrusion, asset ownership or access between communities of water-logging, and drainage congestion. Each of the different hotspots, there are also vast disparities between selected hotspots has been tied to one of these major different wealth classes within the same community. events so that the impacts of that particular hazard on Detailed description of these assets is provided below. the community can be assessed. While each "hotspot" clearly represents one specific hazard, it must be borne Human Capital in mind that many areas are exposed to multiple hazards, each causing or reinforcing the others. The 1. Education: Education opens up new horizons and country shows extreme spatial and temporal climatic provides better job opportunities so that people no variability as well as unevenness in socio-economic longer have to depend on natural resources for d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 19 fIGuRe 2. aDMInIsTRaTIVe MaP of banGlaDesh shoWInG The eIGhT hoTsPoTs of eaCC sTuDY their livelihoods. Adult literacy rate is very low in opportunities for schooling. Since the last decade, most places because when the currently middle- many NGOs have opened schools in many villages aged people were young, there were few for which young children have chance to obtain a 20 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Table 1. eIGhT hoTsPoTs seleCTeD foR eaCC ­ soCIal sTuDY In banGlaDesh. Hotspot Type District Upazila Union Village drought prone naogaon porsha nitpur sadar nitpur salinity prone satkhira Assasuni protapnagar sonatankathi cyclone prone Bagerhat shorankhola southkhali gabtala River flood prone sirajganj Kazipur natuar para ghora gacha flash flood prone sunamganj tahirpur dakshin sreepur Janjail Waterlogging prone Jessore Keshobpur safalakathi Kalicharanpur tidal flood prone cox's Bazar cox's Bazar sadar Khurushkul Rastarpar drainage congestion prone dhaka mohammedpur Adabor comfort house good education. Today, although many young chil- livelihood opportunities. In waterlogged and flash dren go to school, the drop-out rate is high flood prone hotspots, people have knowledge in because the poor families cannot afford to continue making handicrafts such as fishing traps (charons) education of their children. Even if tuition fees are from bamboo and mats from murta trees. These waived, it is very difficult for the parents to afford have become an important secondary source of books, stationeries, and uniforms. Moreover, the income when primary activities, like agriculture, are children have to leave school in order to work with disrupted by hazards. In the river flood prone hot- their parents and help feed the family. However, spot, elders can predict floods and erosion just by there are still variations in this situation. In the analyzing the flow of river water, and they can also drought prone hotspot, although there are many judge which char will be sustainable. In the cyclone schools, literacy is very low because of poverty. prone hotspot, experience from previous cyclones Moreover, people believe that education has no use teaches people how to cope more efficiently. because even graduates stay unemployed. On the 3. Health: Good health is essential for being able to other hand, in the waterlogging prone hotspot, the work and hence is related to an individual's ability situation is similar but education is highly valued. to earn. In the cyclone prone hotspot, good health is Parents work hard all day to meet the education also necessary to move quickly to shelters. One of expenses and women even carry their young chil- the main reasons for poor health is malnutrition, dren to school in times of high water levels. Unlike which is prevalent in all hotspots because poor fam- other areas, women in this village are also edu- ilies cannot even afford to eat two proper meals a cated to the primary and secondary levels, and day. In river and flash flood prone areas, water borne even beyond. In the river flood prone and flash diseases are common because unhygienic situations flood prone areas, education is highly disrupted by arise when latrines are flooded. Skin diseases are floods, e and schools remain closed in monsoon present in cyclone, salinity, tidal flood and water- season. In the salinity prone hotspot, children have logged prone hotspots due to exposure to saline to walk across a canal carrying an extra uniform to water. In the latter hotspot, the health situation has reach school in the adjacent village. Hence, the improved in since the installation by BRAC about a lack of good schools coupled with the hostile natu- decade ago of ring slabs in all households of the vil- ral environment as well as unfavorable household lage, thus ensuring 100 percent sanitation coverage. situation, are responsible for the poor level of edu- In the drainage congestion prone hotspot, highly cation in most hotspots. polluted water from urban sewerage systems exacer- 2. Indigenous Knowledge/Experience: Experience plays bate the health situation. Also poor access to health an important role in coping with problems, and tra- centers means people cannot obtain proper treat- ditional knowledge is useful in creating new ment when needed, as also is the case of flood prone d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 21 hotspots. In the drought prone and waterlogged On the other hand, people in the waterlogging prone hotspots, people even complained that doc- prone hotspot have good relations; women go to tors are not good and provide fake medicines in neighbors' houses to cook when their kitchens are some cases they give the same medicine regardless flooded, and if someone's house is falling, every- of disease and never provide them free of cost. one rushes to help. 4. New information/knowledge: In a changing world, 2. Cooperative Societies: Cooperative societies can be new knowledge is needed to cope with new situa- helpful in coping with disasters because they initi- tions and use resources efficiently. But in most ate savings, can provide loans and take decisions cases, villagers complained that no one ever came for the community through a participatory process. to give them any new information or training that But in most hotspots, such societies (shomitees) are could improve their conditions. In the drought not present because establishing them' requires a prone and salinity prone hotspots, people want to high level of trust and cooperation among the vil- learn about new varieties of rice which can adapt lagers as well as financial investment for start-up. to dry and saline conditions, respectively. In the In the salinity prone hotspot, some people think tidal flood prone hotspot, people never knew the that co-ops are not important because they cannot adverse effects of catching shrimp fries and were provide employment and relieve them from their also unable to interpret signals effectively. But distressed conditions. In the tidal flood prone hot- now, they have learned through mistakes. In the spot, a fishermen co-operative was set up which flash flood prone hotspot, villagers were never proved to be very useful as the members could get involved in fishing due to restrictions in their caste financial help to start a vegetable garden or to buy system, but now due to poor income from agricul- a net. People in the flash flood prone hotspot ture, they are keen to learn about fishing tech- mentioned that a shomitee1 was once formed by the niques. According to most people, agricultural NGO CNRS and a representative used to collect officers and NGO workers hardly ever helped Tk. 12 from each household per week. But as the them in acquiring this information. higher authorities of this shomitee mostly belonged to one side of the village, they were biased and so Social Capital the people from other side stopped saving. Thus the co-op was dissolved, and villagers believe that 1. Social Cohesion: Good relations among members of in order to make initiatives successful, the conflicts the society are necessary, especially in times of between the two sides must be resolved first. disaster when people can help one another. While 3. Contact with NGOs: In the last couple of decades, some communities mentioned that they have rela- NGO activities have spread to all parts of the coun- tions of trust and cooperation, others blamed over- try and have played a significant role, in terms of all poverty for the poor level of trust and cohesion. providing loans and relief materials. In the water- When everyone is poor, people become desperate logging prone hotspot, some NGOs have donated to meet their own needs and are not in a position rice and money after floods or cyclones, while oth- to help others. In the cyclone prone hotspot, ers have reconstructed the demolished houses. In although there are no noticeable factions, people the drought prone hotspot, almost every family has miss mutual cooperation which could have helped contact with one or more NGOs, which help them them in times of cyclones. They claimed that some save or take loans. But people there believe that people captured the relief materials which were although NGOs seem to help them in the short meant for others. In the flash flood prone hotspot, run, they make them dependent in the long run. a social conflict has existed for seven years due to NGOs only give loans to those who can repay, and unknown reason; it reached an extreme situation even takes away whatever assets they have if they last year due to conflict over a bamboo bridge fail to repay on time. In the cyclone prone hotspot, joining two blocks of the village. People of both sides hate each other so much that they didn't even come to rescue a drowning child of the other side. 1 Shomitee ­ Cooperative Society 22 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h the NGO Muslim Aid came as a blessing to people prone hotspot, people believe that high roads will as it built kacha2 houses for every family in the vil- resist entry of saline water and even provide tempo- lage after they lost their homes in cyclone. rary shelters during disasters. They will also allow Similarly, in the river flood prone hotspot, about 30 students to go to school safely and enable young families received a cow and training under the Char people to earn a livelihood by driving motorbikes Livelihood Program. and engine vans. But the only main road of this vil- 4. Social Security: Social security is needed to enable lage is a narrow kacha (rough) path where two peo- people lead a stress free life in a society. In the ple cannot walk side-by-side. In the flash flood salinity prone hotspot, the security situation is very prone area, roads remain under water for four good and no one ever faced any harm or harass- months, during which people have to wait for boats ment. People can feel comfortable leaving their and spend an hour to reach the Upazilla town to belongings back home when they move to the purchase goods for their households. People have shelters because no one ever stole anything. Both their own row boats but those are very risky and in this village, as well as in the river flood prone one woman even lost all her family members when hotspot, women mentioned that they feel safe the boat sank. Even when the roads are above alone at home when their husbands temporarily water, they have to be traversed by foot because migrate to other places for work. However, people bicycles cannot be driven on the muddy paths. in the flash flood prone area blamed poverty and Villagers of the drought prone area highlighted the unemployment for the thefts that used to occur in necessity of roads for a different purpose. Many of their village even a couple of years ago. But two them have their agricultural lands on the other side years back, when agricultural production increased of the Punarbhaba River which can be crossed by a bit due to the embankment constructed by foot during the dry season. But during May, when CNRS, the level of crime decreased in the area. it's time to harvest their Boro crops, they have to But yet, due to conflicts between two groups of hire bullock carts to transport their paddy through the village, women are sometimes harassed in pub- a different route which highly increases their cost. lic by men of the other group. Hence, they mentioned that a bridge needs to be 5. Friends and Relatives: If people have friends and constructed over the river so that they can cross it relatives outside the village, they can get help from by foot. In the waterlogged hotspot, the internal them in times of need. For instance, in the salinity roads stay muddy and slippery in monsoon season, prone hotspot, many people went to seek shelter in and people walk barefoot through the mud to go in the adjacent village Nakna where many of their and out of their houses. families lives. They can also send their livestock to 2. Electricity: In a few hotspots, the villagers high- their relatives' houses, so that they can be saved lighted electricity as an important physical capital during disaster. In the waterlogged prone hotspot, necessary to improve their lives and livelihoods. In women mentioned that although they have their the waterlogged hotspot, people have electricity in own parents in other villages, it is of no use, their homes, but load shedding in so high that because no one wants to leave their own house and they get no electricity in the evenings, which is the be a burden on others. prime time for household work, handicraft mak- ing, and studying. Electricity comes at night when Physical Capital they are sleeping; as a result, they have to bear the cost of both grid connected electricity as well as 1. Road networks: People in most hotspots report that kerosene to deal with load shedding. People in the the conditions of roads and communications infra- drought prone hotspot mentioned that if they had structure determines the level of development of an electricity, it would greatly reduce their agricul- area. In the cyclone prone hotspot, where roads tural input costs as they would be able to avoid have been damaged by frequent cyclones, people cannot reach cyclone shelters in time and also get relief materials that are distributed. In the salinity 2 Kacha ­ House made of mud and hay. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 23 using diesel for running shallow machines. In the from Table-1 that only 26.92 percent of the surveyed flash flood prone hotspot, Oxfam had provided households have ownership of boat. Rests of the house- three free solar panels, which are used by 18 holds have to depend on others in this respect. households to light only six bulbs. This is not at all sufficient, because if they had a proper grid con- nection, they could use mobile phones, TV, and Table 2. asseT oWneD bY The suRVeYeD radios, which would increase their exposure to the householDs (MulTIPle ResPonses) rest of the world. Types of asset Percentage 3. Housing: For poor families in rural places, a small Bicycle/ Rickshaw/van 19 kacha house with one or two rooms is all that they motorcycle 1.0 have. In the cyclone prone hotspot, Muslim Aid provided kacha houses for all families after they Boat 27 lost their houses in the cyclone. In the waterlogged ox cart 2 hotspot, those who can afford it try to raise their sewing machine 3 houses by using mud. Villagers of the river flood Automobile 4 prone hotspot are in the worst condition because tv 18 they have to shift their houses every few years due Radio 24 to river erosion. In the drainage congestion prone mobile phone 47 hotspot, people have to live in crowded slums in which the houses are at a lower level than the roads, leading to water accumulation even after the slightest rainfalls. Landlords increase the house Table 3. aGRICulTuRal anD rent twice a year and do not even develop or repair non-aGRICulTuRal equIPMenT the houses. Types of equipment Percentage 4. Equipment: In places where agriculture is the main plough 27 source of income, most poor farmers have to rent power-tiller 17 large machineries, such as power tillers and shal- fishing nets 25 low machines, which greatly increases their input shallow tube-well 15 costs, leaving very little for profit. In the drought prone hotspot, they have to pay Tk. 500 per bigha3 for borrowing a power tiller to plough their land 5. Cyclone Shelters: The necessity of cyclone shelters and 2 mon4 of paddy per bigha (excluding the fuel was mentioned only in the cyclone and salinity cost) for renting a shallow machine for irrigation. prone hotspots as both these areas are victims of The scenario is the same in the flash flood prone frequent cyclones. In the cyclone prone hotspot, hotspot. In the waterlogged hotspot, people are people complained that the cyclone shelters are too involved mainly in fishing, and nearly every family small and lack proper facilities for sanitation or has its own nets, which but they must replace drinking water. Moreover, they are located far every year as they get damaged. Some people have apart, which makes it difficult for people to reach small boats called ` dunga' made from Tal trees, them in time. There is no scope for bringing in which can accommodate at best two people. livestock, and women lack privacy as they have to stay with men in the same overcrowded rooms. In Asset ownership status of the surveyed households as the salinity prone hotspots, there are no cyclone obtained from the quantitative survey is presented shelters at all, thus people have nowhere to go in below (Tables 2 and 3). Results show relatively poor times of disaster. asset base for the surveyed households. Most of the people of early flash flood, river flood, cyclone prone and salinity prone areas need boats for their daily 3 Bigha ­ Unit of area (1 bigha = 33 decimals) communication to gain their livelihood. But it is clear 4 Mon ­ Unit of weight (1 mon = 40 kg) 24 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h 6. Access to safe water: Lack of safe water supply most people cannot afford to buy livestock; those increases water-borne diseases and places burdens who do possess cattle always in fear of losing them on women, who are responsible for fetching water to cyclones. In the flash flood prone hotspot, most from distant sources. In places like the water- households at least have one cow, either rented or logged hotspot, safe water is not a problem because owned, and a few have some ducks. During the there is an adequate number of tube-wells. In the dry season the cattle graze on government lands, tidal flood prone hotspot, water is also not a prob- and during flood periods they feed on stored hay, lem for most people, except the Rakhain commu- paddy, grass, soya seeds, paddy flakes, etc. In all nity who do not have safe water source in their these places, raising livestock is becoming expen- territory; there, young women have to travel large sive because all the feed for cattle must be bought distances every day to fetch water. But water is a from the market. In the waterlogged hotspot problem in the river and flash flood prone hot- which has no grazing lands, men and women have spots, where tube-wells remain under water for a to travel across the beel to gather grass for their few months, during which residents must depend cattle. If they earn Tk. 100 by selling milk, they on river or flood water for daily use. The village in have to spend Tk. 50 to buy feed for the cattle. the flash flood prone zone has only three tube- 2. Water bodies: Common water bodies such as ponds wells, one of which is inactive. Tube-wells are the are important because they can be used for fisheries main source of drinking and cooking water, while and also for bathing and livestock. During river water is used for all other purposes. During droughts in the cyclone and waterlogged prone hot- floods, women cannot even boil the river water for spots, people catch fish in the nearby river and beels consumption because of lack of fuel wood. In the as an important income source. In the cyclone cyclone and salinity prone hotspots, ponds and prone hotspot, when the ponds become filled with canals are filled with saline water, which causes saline water, they become unusable, making lives skin irritation when used to wash clothes. People difficult for people. They have installed pond sand reported that some cattle also died after drinking filters in these ponds to obtain fresh water. In the this saline water. tidal flood prone hotspot, marine fishing in the sea is the main occupation. But people in the flash Natural Capital flood prone hotspot can fish only in the Tanguar Haor5 due to restrictions in the Ramsar 1. Livestock: Possession of cattle or poultry can serve Convention, which protects wetlands. as a secondary income source. Calves can be sold 3. Trees: If people can grow fruits and vegetables, once grown, milk can be consumed or sold, and they do not have to purchase them for consump- the money can be used for their daughter's mar- tion. But in the drought prone hotspot, people riage or to survive a financial hardship. Moreover, cannot grow trees due to lack of space and in the the cow dung can be used as fuel; otherwise it waterlogged hotspot, trees cannot be grown due to must be bought from the market. Poultry are excess water. In the latter, people had to cut and important only for consumption, especially during sell all the trees, for which they earned about Tk. festivals. Although every household has some 7000 per tree. In the river and flash prone hot- poultry, only a few families own cattle. In the spots, people mentioned that trees can hold on to waterlogged hotspot, a poor person mentioned that soil and prevent erosion. But as the land gets his cow now is only hope of survival (`Ami to flooded every year, it is not possible to grow shudhu oi ek gorur jonnoi beche asi ekhon'), adding enough trees. In the cyclone prone hotspot, people that otherwise he would have had to take loans, term trees as "God" because the mangrove forests like others (Nahole amar dena day kore khete hoto). of the south are essential to protect them from Cows provide five to six kgs of milk every day, cyclones. Trees greatly reduce the wind speed, and which owners can sell for Tk. 20/kg, while ducks and hens lay eggs which can be consumed or sold by the household. In the salinity prone hotspot, 5 Haor ­ Bengali word meaning wetland. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 25 some people have even survived the storms by losing their cultivable land every year. Quantitative hugging or tying themselves to trees. data (Table 4) of the eight hotspots also shows that 4. Agricultural Land: As rural people in Bangladesh nearly three-fourths of the surveyed households are are highly dependent on agriculture for their landless or nearly landless. income, possession of land is very important. But most marginal farmers have only a small amount Financial Capital of land of their own and mainly lease land from landlords or work as laborers on someone else's 1. Income: Having a steady income is the most impor- land. Those who have land are usually less affected tant factor that determines the standard of living by hazards because they earn a fixed annual rent of the households. In all hotspots, the majority of regardless of crop yield. In the drought prone hot- the villagers are "hand to mouth" people who can spot, the location of the land is also important hardly afford to provide three proper meals a day because of availability of water. People who lease for their families. In the waterlogged hotspot, only land have to pay Tk. 2000 per year for each bigha service holders and couple of fish businessmen of land. In the river flood prone hotspot, people have good incomes. The poor mainly earn money are becoming landless day-by-day due to river ero- by fishing, making handicrafts, and selling live- sion. The same is true for the cyclone prone hot- stock products. In the drought prone area, where spot, where even though river erosion is less severe, agriculture is the main occupation, profits from salinity intrusion is destroying the fertility of the crops have been decreasing as the cost of diesel, land. Soil salinity is also a major problem in the fertilizers, and pesticides has increased in last cou- tidal flood and salinity prone hotspots, where crop ple of years, while the price of rice has decreased cultivation is becoming almost impossible. In the significantly. In the river flood prone hotspot, peo- flash flood prone hotspot, farmers can only culti- ple stay idle for six months a year, and there are no vate Boro crops in winter because the lands are industries or businesses where they can be hired. inundated in monsoon season, whereas in the In the tidal flood prone area, only those people waterlogged hotspot, agricultural activities have who have their own boats and nets have a regular ceased completely because all their lands have been monthly income; others have very few employment submerged for the last five years. opportunities. Due to salinity, they have not been able to cultivate crops in recent years, and so their In rural Bangladesh, land is the primary source of situation has been deteriorating. Day laborers in all livelihoods and represents future social security for hotspots earn as little as Tk. 80­100 per day the people. From the qualitative data of this study, depending upon the availability of work. it is clear that in the river erosion area people are Compared to rural hotspots, income is better in the drainage congestion prone urban hotspot, where people can work as maids, garment workers, drivers, shopkeepers, mechanics, and other jobs. Table 4. lanD oWneRshIP sTaTus The above findings are also confirmed by the results (aGRICulTuRal lanD) of The suRVeYeD obtained from the quantitative survey. An over- householDs whelming majority of the surveyed households are dependent on jobs as agricultural day-laborers, fish- Types of household Percentage ing, small business/trading or petty professional landless (0 decimal) 36 activities (Table 5). functionally landless (1­49 decimals) 36 small farmers (50­99 decimals) 9 2. Loans: In the past decade NGOs have started giv- medium farmers (100­249 decimals) 10 ing loans to poor villagers who, in the absence of large farmers (250 decimals and above) 9 proper employment opportunities and due to fre- total 100 quent natural hazards, become compelled to 26 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h long time they can save a good amount. People in Table 5. annual aVeRaGe InCoMe the water-logged hotspot had little savings in the of The householD bY souRCes past, but due to lack of income in the last five years, they now have no savings. Only 1­2 percent Percentage of Average annual Sources of income the households income (Taka) of the people in the salinity prone hotspot have savings. After cyclones, people lose everything and Agriculture 34 12,706 in without work, house and livestock, it is impossi- service related job 12 4,194 ble to save anything. Almost everyone has taken house rent 3 682 loans of a few thousand taka from shops or rela- fishing 22 8,425 tives. Richer people in the society usually have poultry 5 817 savings of up to Tk. 100,000 in the form of fixed vegetables 2 57 deposits or insurance schemes. Remittance (from city 4 2,519 and abroad) Agricultural labor 30 6,936 Combined livelihood asset pentagons of all hotspots small business 26 8,684 are presented below, which illustrates poor and factory worker 1 115 imbalanced asset bases for the households living in pension 2 83 the selected communities. ngo/government job 4 1,451 e xI s T In G l I Ve lI h o oD s Ys TeM s handicraft 18 3,440 Restaurants 1 384 livelihood Practices: transport (road) 6 1,442 transport (water) 1 28 In the hotspots--except for the drainage congestion and dairy farms 3 730 the waterlogged prone areas--the majority of the others 17 5,422 people are engaged in agricultural activities, either on their own land or on land leased from owners. A small number of people who can afford to invest some money are engaged in small businesses, such as department borrow money. Villagers even take loans from local stores, medicine shops, or grocery stores. Others who money lenders (Mohajons) who charge higher have neither land nor money work as day laborers, as interest rates. In the drought prone hotspot, skilled workers, or as service workers. In nearly all NGOs such as Asha, Reek, Grameen Bank, hotspots, people are less willing to migrate from their Thengamara (TMSS) and BRAC provide loans of villages unless they must do so to earn a livelihood. Tk. 4000­20,000, at an interest rate of 10 percent. Many people, both men and women, have never ever Loans are taken for various reasons, such as to been outside their villages in their lifetimes. But now meet household expenses, to buy livestock, to pur- some parents aspire to send their children to better chase agricultural inputs, and to marry off daugh- places for better lives, but their limited assets hinder ters. In the waterlogged hotspot, people have them from doing so. In fact, it's really the river around access to loans but do not want to take them the proximity of each of the hotspots that plays the because they cannot repay it. Big businessmen also most dominant role in determining livelihood strategies. take loans from banks of Tk. 40,000 or more to It acts as a blessing as well as a curse. invest and expand their businesses. 3. Savings: Poor people in most hotspots have very Due to lack of agriculture in their own land, people in little income and are highly depended on loans, the waterlogged prone hotspot move to work as day hence, having savings is out of question. In the laborers or migrate out of the village to work in brick drought prone hotspot, they have started the prac- fields or on other's agricultural lands. In rainy season, tice of depositing Tk. 20 every Saturday to the brick fields also are submerged, depriving people of NGOs. If they do not withdraw this money for a work. Most of the poor people catch fish from the d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 27 fIGuRe 3. CoMbIneD lIVelIhooD asseT PenTaGons (all hoTsPoTs) Human 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Financial 1.5 Social 1.0 0.5 0.0 Natural Physical Drought prone Sanity prone Cyclone prone River flood prone Flash flood prone Water logging prone Tidal surge prone Drainage congestion prone nearby beels using nets, fish lines, and traps. They earn throughout the year. But in both the hotspots the more in the monsoon season, and people face difficul- income from fishing is decreasing rapidly due to dwin- ties in the dry season when the rivers and ponds dling fish population. become dry. During the dry season, they cut mud, exca- vate ponds, or build ghers; in the rainy season they make In the cyclone -prone areas, the burdens of high interest handicrafts, such as fishing equipment (charons). They loans, river erosion, restricted Sundarban, and recent sell these for Tk. 50­60/piece and then purchase food cyclones are the factors hindering economic activities. for their families. Some are involved in service work and Previously, villagers were dependent on Sundarban for have the most reliable and stable income source. In the honey, wood, and fishing. But after it was declared as drought prone area, too, the people rely on fishing, a Reserved Forest, they had to change their occupation separate community catches fish in the Punarbhaba and became completely dependent on fishing. Saline River. A large area of land becomes submerged in the water hinders cultivating fresh-water fish, and so they rainy season, so the villagers can grow only one crop go for shrimp farming, unlike in the drought prone and 28 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h waterlogged regions. Only 10 percent of adults are There are very few fishing activities, as well, and no involved in agriculture, and the erosion of the Baleswar option for shrimp farming. So, like the people in other river is reducing dependence on agriculture. One of the regions they, too, migrate to urban or rural areas and common features in the livelihood patterns of the work as skilled laborers. Given a good road communica- cyclone prone area is that people are moving away from tion, the people of the hotspots earn a living by working one primary earning source and getting more involved as drivers of vans, motorcycles, rickshaws, etc. But in the in working as day laborers (such as carpenter), service river flood prone area, where boats are the only mode of workers (such as school teacher), skilled laborers transportation, people work as boatmen. (garment workers), and in some cases businesses. A few people drive vans or auto rickshaws and earn around Tk. Besides these, almost all the hotspots have cattle and 100­300 a day. Some have tailoring skills while others poultry, which serve as important income sources for have small businesses of pharmacy, utensils, small tea the rural households. Those who own cows can sell milk and grocery stalls. Women usually do not work outside for Tk. 20/kg every day and also keep some for house- their households and are mainly engaged in cooking, hold consumption. When cows give birth, they raise the raising children, looking after livestock, and helping calves and sell the mother to earn a good amount of their husbands. But a few women have started small money. Cows also provide dung, which is wrapped scale handicrafts businesses, and some widowed women around sticks to make "moshals" and used as a fuel for have even migrated out of the village to work as house- cooking. But cattle rearing becomes quite expensive maids and cooks. without farming to provide hay and grains for the animals. Hens and ducks are present in almost all In the coastal hotspot regions fishing is the main occu- households; these are reared mainly for consumption of pation (80 percent), as agricultural lands are being lost eggs or for selling the chickens. But the salinity prone or are losing fertility due to salinity. However, some still area, at the present, is completely devoid of poultry, as work as agricultural laborers in their neighboring some of them died in the cyclone Aila and others died village. Fishing, however, is getting difficult as the fish drinking the saline water. population is decreasing tremendously due to overfish- ing and the catching of fries. Now they catch fish Unlike the other hotspots, the flash flood prone region worth 1­2 lakh taka, while in the past it used to be is still heavily dependent on agriculture. Even the around 10­12 lakh. So, naturally, the wages of the fish- women help with the agricultural work. The young ermen have fallen tremendously. A good percentage of people migrate in the monsoon to other places to earn people have migrated out of the village to cities and money as agricultural laborers and return in dry season hilly areas to work as rickshaw pullers, garment work- to work at their own agricultural lands, cultivating Boro ers, carpenters, construction workers, cooks, shrimp rice. Since flash floods inundate their agricultural lands farm laborers, etc. for four-to-five months, they cannot cultivate paddy through the year. Most of the migratory people come In the salinity prone area, specifically, the men now have back to the village at the time of sowing paddy. Women a new income source by helping to rebuild the breached try planting some green vegetables in the government embankment and in return get 5 kg of rice every day. lands around the village. Women participate in agricul- Some of the people cultivate shrimp. But others tural work, especially after the harvesting they husk and complain that due to the shrimp farms the agricultural stir paddy while it is being dried in the sun. Throughout lands are becoming useless as the shrimp farms illegally the year, they generally make mats (pati) by using natu- cut into the already weakened embankment to let in ral raw materials (murta tree), which is sold at local saline water. The majority of the people want to get markets. Women do not migrate or work outside the back the land and live by farming as they believe only home; they believe they are unskilled and unable to the rich are the ultimate profit earners from the ghers; migrate to earn money. not the poor laborers. In the river flood prone area, also, very few can get involved in agriculture due to fear of The drainage congestion zone is different in that the loss of land from river erosion and floods every year. migrants from the other seven hotspots migrate here. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 29 People have migrated here for 20 years, looking for a their lives for decades and it is not a major problem if reliable livelihood. Now they work as rickshaw pullers, they have enough money to spend for irrigation. In garment workers, housemaids, day laborers, shopkeepers, some places, where irrigation is not possible, even if construction workers, earth cutters, etc. someone has money, are left fallow during this season. Another major hazard is flood. Every monsoon, the e x Pe RI en Ce WIT h PasT ClIMaT e Punarbhaba River overflows its banks and inundates the Va RI ab I lITY an D haza RDs surrounding agricultural land, forcing many small farm- ers have to abandon the cropping season. Although they Climatic hazards: can adapt toh drought, there is no way to prevent the flooding. The biggest flood occurred in 1998, when the As mentioned in Section 3, the eight hotspots have water level was so high that even the houses were inun- been selected so that each represents one of the major dated. People had to migrate to the school building for climate change-related hazards that occur in weeks and when they returned they found that all their Bangladesh. Although each hotspot has been identified assets had been damaged or stolen. as being vulnerable to one particular "primary" hazard, the field visits revealed that in most hotspots there are People in the salinity prone hotspot mentioned that also some "secondary" hazards which exacerbate the about 30­40 years ago, this village was free from saline situation. These secondary hazards are sometimes water and other types of disasters; but now it is vulnera- responsible for triggering the primary hazards, as in the ble to multiple hazards including flood, river bank case of the salinity prone hotspot, where frequent erosion, salinity intrusion, and cyclonic storm surges. An cyclones and tidal surges are leading to salinity intru- embankment was built around the village in the British sion. In other cases, such as the river flood prone Period which endured all the natural disasters since hotspot, the secondary hazard of river erosion is actually then. In the last 25 years the embankment has been the effect of the river floods which affect that area every breached five times and saline water entered the village, monsoon. Sometimes the hazards may be mutually destroying agricultural lands. Once a land is flooded exclusive, but their synergistic effects magnify the level with saline water, it takes about two-to-three years to of impacts on the villagers. For instance, in the cyclone get back its original productivity. prone hotspot, river bank erosion is causing continuous loss of agriculture land, thus reducing people's livelihood The 1988 flood was a devastating one and forced people options and their ability to cope with frequent cyclones. to leave their homes as their assets and belongings all Similarly, in the drought prone hotspot, while some got washed away in the flood water. It breached the land on the eastern side is left fallow during dry season embankment for the first time and let in saline water. due to lack of irrigation facilities, other lands adjacent This was followed by a decrease in agriculture-based to the Punarbhaba River are flooded during monsoon, livelihood and an increase in temporary migration for thus preventing cultivation of Aus and Aman crops. other work. In 1998, the village was struck by a severe The following paragraphs contain detailed discussion hail storm. The hailstones were so huge that they on these different types of hazards in different hotspots. resembled meteorites. Though the people weren't hurt the trees turned white as the big hailstones scraped the According to the villagers of the drought prone bark off the trees. Some of the trees in the village are hotspot, weather patterns have been changing gradu- still bearing the marks of the terrible hail storm. In ally; summers are becoming warmer and rainfall is 2001, the village suffered a flood coupled with river being delayed. In 2009, the monsoon precipitation erosion. The embankment was breached and the lands started weeks after its traditional timing. This area is were inundated with saline water. Fifty to sixty bighas of prone to drought from March to May, just a couple of agricultural land were lost due to river erosion. Almost months before the Boro crops are harvested. This all the houses were completely destroyed in the flood increases the need for irrigation, which in turn, increases water. In 2007, cyclone Sidr hit the village but didn't the cost of renting shallow machines and buying fuel. cause many casualties. The village was flooded, but not According to the villagers, drought has been a part of severely. 30 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h The village was hardest hit by cyclone Aila in May surge, people had to leave their houses and take shelter 2009. The breached embankment brought in saline in the nearest cyclone shelters, which were built in 1992. water from the sea, destroying the last remaining agri- These cyclones destroyed the embankment further and cultural lands. The villagers now have no hope of damaged the agricultural land. Cyclone Sidr of survival if they cannot recover their lands. Along with November 2007 did not affect this village much. this is the concern of river erosion that is now taking However, in 2008, Cyclone Nargis brought huge miser- place more frequently. One midnight, the villagers woke ies for these people. Most of the kacha houses were up in fear as they heard the blunt sound of the river destroyed by strong wind flow and at least two fisher- gobbling up a big chunk of land nearby. Luckily no men were missing in this village. In 2009, cyclone Aila harm was done, but it could affect any household. destroyed the embankment and inundated 15,000 acres of agricultural land with saline water, destroying the Like the people of drought prone hotspot, these villagers standing crops. Apart from these extreme events, people also feel that the weather is changing very rapidly and here also complained that the weather pattern is chang- unpredictably. The rains are coming late and it's ing. For instance, winters are not as cold as before, extremely hot in the summer. The storms are fierce and summers are much warmer, and rainfall has become very most damaging. They feel that the river course and flow erratic. About 15­20 years ago the sea was much calmer, has changed tremendously. In their childhoods, the river but nowadays it is very rough due to bad weather. was very far away and they had to walk long distances to see it; but now it is just outside their homes. Apart from Apart from frequent cyclones, the cyclone prone the erosion problem the strong winds and storms are of hotspot is also suffering from river bank erosion. The major concern now. The older people of the village never Baleswar river has been eroding since 1950 and since saw a cyclone as intense as Aila, which washed over their then most of the families have lost 30­40 bighas agricul- houses and left knee-deep water in their yards. tural land. Currently, 100 bighas of agricultural land are eroding each year. In the cyclone of 1970, 13 people, The tidal flood prone hotspot is vulnerable to cyclones, including many children, died in that village and about tidal surges, as well as river erosion. The great cyclone of five members were lost from different families in 1991, crossed the village during the night with a maxi- Sarankhola union. No casualties occurred in 1991's mum storm surge height of about 5 to 8m. Crops, live- cyclone but houses, schools, roads, and other infrastruc- stock, fisheries, homesteads, roads, embankment, schools, ture were damaged. Huge numbers of trees were also and other infrastructure were affected. In addition, uprooted. Cyclone Sidr hit at 8 pm in the evening of human lives were lost in storm surges and many people November 15, 2007, and took one minute to smash become homeless. A shortage of food and pure drinking everything; 781 people died in the entire Sarankhola water made people more vulnerable to diseases. Due to union, among whom 288 were from our study village. high winds and tidal waves, the total area was inundated Roads, madrasa, bridges, culverts, and small shops were for 10 days, and the villagers were unable to pump water damaged due to this devastating tidal surge. Thousands into the sea. As the total area was surrounded by of livestock died in Sidr. Tidal waves 20­25 feet high embankments, the people were surrounded by water destroyed Aman crops in the fields. Due to lack of because the sluice gates didn't function properly. In order proper information about signal-10, very few people were to protect this area, the Water and Power Development able to rescue themselves by moving to cyclone-shelters. Authority (WAPDA), built an embankment along the sea in 1991. After construction of the embankment, agri- Compared to cyclone Sidr it was expected that the cultural activities increased in this area. But gradually, the effects of cyclone Aila in 2009 would be less because it water level of the sea got higher and damaged the occurred during the day time. But higher salinity and embankment. After the embankment was breached, more lack of fresh water made the situation even worse. saline water came inside the village during high tides. Villagers who were living about 2­3 km away were unable to visit cyclone shelter. High speed winds and In 1994, 1997, and 1999 three devastating cyclones and tidal surge sustained for one hour, whereas 15 minutes tidal surges visited the area. Due to high winds and tidal of prolonged attack was enough to demolish everything. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 31 All the ghers were damaged and the fish escaped. The common natural hazards. After the floods of 1988 and saline water caused mass death of fish, which later led s1989, this village was severely affected by river erosion to extreme foul odors, making life intolerable for people. which destroyed most of the houses. That year was a turning point for this village. At that time, Natuarpara In the flash flood prone hotspot, previously, flash flood union was close to Ghoragacha village, but every year was the main problem for the villagers because it the two frequently changed their positions because of damaged their only cultivated Boro crop. Year after year, river erosion. A large number of households were they lost their crops due to flash flood, which had a displaced to nearer chars and other areas. But people severe impact on their livelihood earnings. Then CNRS relocate themselves once a new char is rising, which was built an embankment which reduced the impact of flash the case when our study area rose in 2004. In the flood on croplands. Since then the local people have meantime a number of households permanently experienced good production from their agricultural migrated to nearby upazillas, districts, and other chars. fields, and agricultural labor work increased. In 2007, after three years, this village was further affected by riverine flood and river erosion, which inun- This village was affected by four major floods (1974, dated most of the agricultural lands. At least 150 1988, 1998, and 2007). In addition, several flash and households permanently migrated from this village in rain-fed floods occur almost every year in this village, 2008. This village, which once had around 1,500 causing a great deal damage to the livelihoods of the households, now consists of only 300. villagers. The rain ­fed floods of 1974 and 1998 were similar in their timing and severity. The hills of India The villagers of the waterlogged hotspot attribute their are near this village and severe water runoff from the waterlogging situation to unplanned anthropogenic hills after heavy rainfall was responsible for the water interventions, rather than to climate change. In order to level rise of river Surma and Tanguar Haor. Water protect this area from recurring river floods, the Water started to rise at mid-June and stayed high for a month. and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), funded It inundated all the houses and rose to chest high. by the US government, built an embankment in 1964 Villagers said, "amader ostitto beleen hoye gesilo", meaning along the Bhogodowa River. After the building of their existence was under severe threat due to those embankment, agricultural activities increased in this area. floods. People drowned and died in the flood but when But gradually, the river's flow velocity decreased and silt- the flood water started to recede, different water-related ation started to occur, as the tributaries and distributaries diseases like cholera, diarrhea, dysentery, etc., spread of the river were reduced by constructing embankments. over the locality. The Government distributed aid to the The river channel was narrowed due to lack of enough affected villagers, but after one month that aid was water to ensure smooth flow. Gradually the river's sinu- insufficient. In 1988, a severe flash flood occurred in osity decreased and water level of the river got higher mid-March and destroyed their only crop Boro. Due to than the nearby beels. The sluice gate, at that time, this sudden water flow, which the villagers term `Okhal consisted of nine bands, which allowed a huge amount Bonna,', people became helpless because most of them of water to pass from the beels into the river. lost their crops and homes. Water started to recede at the end of July. The effects were similar: People couldn't In 1986 and 1998, two devastating floods occurred in boil water for drinking purpose as they couldn't manage this area. Due to high rainfall, the river overflowed its to collect enough dry wood, leaves, or branches for fuel. banks and submerged the surrounding areas. The total Many villagers lost their residential land due to river area was inundated for two weeks and the villagers were erosion. In 2007, another high intensity flood occurred not able to pump water into the river. As the total area in this area after heavy rainfall and led to severe river was surrounded by embankments and the river water erosion. The flood started in July and the area remained level was higher than the beels, the water couldn't pass waterlogged until the end of August. through the river. Also due to accumulation of silt in the sluice gate area, the gates didn't function properly. The river flood prone hotspot is a newly risen char On November 29, 1988, there was a great storm in this island in Jamuna River, where floods and erosion are region which caused severe damages. The devastating 32 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h flood of 1998 which affected the entire nation, also initiatives in these years to shift the TRM process to caused a lot of suffering for these villagers. The situa- another village. They did not even compensate the local tion was similar to 1986. In the following years there people for their sufferings, though they promised that were some minor floods but they were not as severe as they would give Tk. 4000 to each family every year. the previous ones. Cyclone Sidr of November 2007, did not affect this Meanwhile, due to low velocity flow in the river, silt- village much. However, in May 2009, Cyclone Aila ation occurred in huge levels near the embankment brought huge miseries for these people and exacerbated areas. As a result, one side (Kalicharanpur) of the river their already waterlogged situation. All the ghers were was becoming higher and the other side was becoming damaged and the fish escaped. The saline water caused lower. Thus, the specialists from WAPDA decided to mass death of fish which later led to extreme foul odors take action to save the river and its other side. But making life intolerable for people. before they could take any action, some powerful people from the other side of the river cut down the embank- The drainage congestion prone hotspot is affected by ment in several places to pass the river water into this floods every year, but very severe incidents occurred in side of the river. WAPDA specialists recognized it as an 1996, 2004, and 2007. In these years, heavy rainfall effective process to solve the problem, thus they imple- accompanied by rising water level of the nearby water- mented Tidal River Management (TRM) process in bodies caused water to accumulate in the slum areas, 2005 in this area. They built another embankment which are at a lower level than the roads. Water level through Kalicharanpur village and created many open- rose up to knee or waist level, and in 2004 it reached as ings, so that in the dry season the river would get water high as the roofs. All the houses went under water and from the beels to maintain normal flow. However, they residents' furniture, pillows, utensils, and clothes were all only took beel Khukshia into consideration and over- damaged by the dirty waters. Some things were usable looked the fact that another 26 beels were connected to after the water receded but most things rotted and had this beel, and water from all these 27 beels would pass to be thrown away. People had to move to the nearby through the TRM area. Thus, the TRM exceeded its roads or construction sites and live in the open for capacity and permanent water logged situation arose in weeks. Apart from these extreme events, every year this area since 2005. People in this village have agricul- during monsoon, overnight showers cause water to enter tural lands, all of which have been under water during the houses, although the water drains away by afternoon. the past five years. The government has not taken any Summary Although different areas are prone to different types of hazards, the above discussions highlight that the inten- fIGuRe 4. InTensITY anD seVeRITY sity and frequency of climatic events are increasingly of hazaRD bY YeaR bringing about greater impacts on the lives and liveli- 6 hoods of people. In some hotspots, where a single event 5 such as cyclone can cause huge damages at one blow, in 4 other area such as drought prone hotspots, the effects Severity 3 are gradual and less visible. Some devastating historical 2 disasters have affected almost all places even though the 1 degree of effect may be different. For instance, in the 0 river flood, flash flood, waterlogged, and drainage 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 congestion prone hotspots, all respondents have high- Drought prone Sanity prone Cyclone prone lighted the severe floods of 1988, 1998 and 2007 which River flood prone Flash flood prone Water logging prone had nationwide impacts. Similarly, the two consecutive Cyclone & Tidal surge prone Drainage congestion prone cyclones Sidr and Aila brought about huge miseries for people in hotspots close to the coast. While cyclones d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 33 usually occur in the pre- (April-May) or post- years (Table 5). About 39 percent of the households were (October-November) monsoon periods, other disasters affected by storm surge. Cyclone is more common in the such as floods, river erosion, and drainage congestion southern part and coastal regions of the country. Almost take place in the monsoon season. Although these 219 rivers flow through the country. The people who live climatic hazards are results of climate change, in some in the river bank areas have to face riverbank erosion. hotspots, anthropogenic interventions have further Likewise, those who live in the coastal region also face aggravated the conditions. In the salinity prone hotspot, coastal erosion. Almost one-third of surveyed households some influential people leased the Gorimahal canal faced river or coastal erosion in the last 20 years. People from the government for shrimp farming and also in some areas also faced multiple hazards (i.e., people of inserted pipes through the embankment which is now cyclone prone areas also faced water logging and salinity the major cause of saline water entry. People in the problem). So, the percentage of hazards affected house- drought prone hotspot complained that as India holds varies depending on location and hazard types. controls the flow of Punarbhaba River, it becomes dry Table 6 below presents the hazards faced by the surveyed in winter and overflows its banks in monsoon season. households over the last 20 years or so. Similarly, deforestation in the hilly areas in north-east causes soil erosion after heavy rainfall, which coupled Physical and socio-economic Impacts: with blockage of distributaries of Surma River has led to sedimentation in the rivers and hence severe floods in Each of the different types of hazards described in above monsoon. But the highest amount of anthropogenic has various physical and socio-economic impacts, both influence is felt by people in the drainage congestion in the short and long run. Some hazards, like cyclones, prone hotspot, where rapid real estate development, fill- are so intense that they destroy everything in few hours, ing of canals and poor urban drainage system are the while others, such as floods and waterlogging, take main causes of water accumulation. weeks to manifest their range of effects. While people have to live in hostile conditions during the disaster, the Different communities faced different natural hazards. major hardships often arise in the post-disaster period Flood is the most common hazard, affecting a large part when people are left with nothing. Some impacts are so of the country almost every year. Fifty percent of the devastating that they leave their marks forever as people surveyed households faced river flood in the last twenty can never restore their pre-disaster conditions, while others are comparatively mild giving people the chance to re-establish their lives and livelihoods. But when disasters are frequent, the impacts of one event build on Table 6. householDs faCeD hazaRDs those of the previous one, creating damages much In The lasT 20 YeaRs greater than what could be inflicted by discrete events. Percentage of households In the cyclone prone hotspot, each devastating cyclone Types of hazards faced this hazard like Sidr or Aila, has huge impacts on the lives and River flood 50 properties of the villages. During cyclone Sidr, which flash flood 14 occurred at night, hundreds of people died, some Rain fed flood 12 became handicapped and families lost their earning tidal flood 4 members. Thousands of poultry and livestock were also strom surge 39 killed, as people didn't have any time to move them- high speed wind 5 selves or their animals to safe shelters. Infrastructures salinity intrusion 29 such as roads, schools, houses, bridges, culverts, and Water logging 19 small shops were destroyed, and equipment such as cold wave 4 boats, trawlers and power-tillers were also damaged. Riverbank/coastal erosion 32 Due to high tidal surges, all the Aman crops in the thunderstorm/hillstorm 1 fields were damaged and huge numbers of trees were landslide 1 uprooted. As cyclone Aila took place during the day, 34 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h more people were able to save their lives, but the high no fish and vegetables in their diet. Due to poverty, they speed winds and tidal surges caused the ghers to be cannot buy these from the market and because of salin- damaged and fish to escape. The water was highly saline ity they cannot even grow vegetables in their yards. which caused mass death of fish leading to extreme foul Even grass cannot be grown, and in absence of crops odors later on. The saline water mixed with fresh water residues, it is not even possible to rear livestock. of the ponds making them unusable. People described Moreover, riverbank erosion has compelled more than that saline water of Aila was worse than poison: "Bisher 40 households to shift to other villages and at least five cheo ei pani kharap." As a result, diarrhea, dysentery, or six households migrated permanently to hilly areas of fever, headaches and pneumonia occurred in large scale Chittagong. About 30­40 years ago, all the people used after the cyclone. Hatcheries, roads, bridges and houses to depend on agriculture, but this scenario has changed which were repaired after Sidr have been damaged again in the last 10 years because of saline water intrusion. by Aila. Besides these frequent cyclones, a continuous Young people no longer want to cultivate crops and are process of river erosion is also causing huge losses of migrating to other places for work. agricultural lands. These immediate impacts have a lot of long term consequences. Villagers are being forced to As the majority of the people in the tidal flood prone abandon their traditional agricultural activities due to hotspot are involved in marine fishing, climate change loss of land and increased salinity and shift to other has greatly affected their livelihoods. The sea has livelihood options such as fishing, shrimp farming and become rougher and fish are no longer found near the small businesses. Men are compelled to migrate to coast. Fishermen have to go deeper into the sea to catch urban areas for work as skilled or unskilled day laborers. fish, but as the fish population has been dwindling, they Unemployment is increasing and people are slowly often return with empty baskets. The wages of fisher- being engulfed by poverty. men have also decreased. The sea has become a much more dangerous place and trawlers have gone fishing In the salinity prone hotspot, frequent cyclones and causing death of fishermen. As the market price of the damage to the embankment are causing entry of shrimp fries is high, everyone wants to catch those, and saline water, which is destroying the agricultural lands. in the process catch other fries as well, thus reducing Once a land is flooded with saline water, it takes two- the overall fish population. But awareness is now to-three years to recover it. Poor families are most- increasing. Due to frequent cyclones, increased height affected by saline water because they are solely of tidal waves, and limited height of embankments, depended on agriculture and homestead gardening for saline water gradually is entering the village and damag- their livelihoods. The rich can earn profits from shrimp ing agricultural lands. In the past they used to grow cultivation or other businesses. After cyclone Aila, Aman and Boro crops as well as vegetables, but now severe freshwater crisis arose in this village and people they cannot grow anything due to salinity. This has have to bathe and wash their clothes and dishes in greatly affected their incomes. Women also cannot grow saline water. This has led to skin problems. Many poul- chili, watermelon, and gourds in their home gardens. try have also died because of drinking this saline water. But salinity has also created opportunities for some Many livestock had to be released. About three people people, especially the rich, who are now involved in died in cyclone Aila. There is only one deep well (400 shrimp cultivation and salt production. In the devastat- feet) in the village which is also shared by people from ing cyclone of 1991, crops, livestock, fisheries, roads, another village. The saline water is also killing many embankment and schools were destroyed. Many people trees, which is in turn reducing their protection from lost their lives and many became homeless. The total strong winds. The latrines have been destroyed and the area was inundated for 10 days, and the fishermen waters are now contaminated with human waste. All the became unemployed for a certain period. Although a houses and the only government primary school have cyclone shelter was built in 1992, it is not sufficient to completely been destroyed. Schools are closed for accommodate all the people and livestock; so the live- months and disruption of road communication hinder stock have to be released during cyclones so that they children from going to school. People, especially, women can find their own safe shelters. The three consecutive and children, now suffer from malnutrition as there is cyclones in 2007 (Sidr), 2008 (Nargis), and 2009 (Aila) d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 35 have also destroyed kacha houses, fish ghers and inun- impact of flash floods on agricultural land was reduced dated agricultural lands. About 15,000 acres of land, and crop production increased. Last year, people had which were full of matured crops, were flooded. more crops compared to the previous five years. But Shortage of food and drinking water make the people the villagers also stated that the embankment is not vulnerable to diseases. Education of children is high enough to prevent flood water from inundating disrupted. Even when there is a harmless little rainfall, the croplands during years of excessive flood. Also, children cannot go to school as no one can afford to once the water enters through the submergible buy even an umbrella, and if the schoolbooks get wet, embankment during the flood, it cannot escape easily they will become unusable. as there are no sluice gates. Thus the lands do not reappear in time and farmers have to wait for sowing In the river flood prone hotspot, the water level rises their seeds. Due to these floods, it also becomes diffi- every year in monsoon season, and during severe cult to raise livestock as they have no grazing lands floods the houses and agricultural lands are inundated during monsoon. The village also doesn't have any fruit by water two-to-three feet deep. Few people die from trees or vegetable plants because these are damaged by floods, apart from a couple children who drown each excess water. The villagers complained that as it is a year. As this area is a charland, the sandy soil does not remote area with few inhabitants and poor communi- allow crops to be grown unless the land is prepared for cation facilities from the upazilla town, the govern- two-to-three years. But villagers do not want to invest ment does not want to develop this area and solve much because due to river erosion, the sustainability of their problems. the char is uncertain. More and more agricultural lands are being lost to the river, decreasing livelihood In the drought prone hotspot, water stress arises in the options for the people. Life here is very mobile, as dry season which increases irrigation requirements for people have to shift their houses every few years to Boro crops. This in turn raises input expenditures and higher areas or other chars due to floods and erosion. decreases profits. For those who can afford to provide Women cannot grow vegetables or trees because they frequent irrigation, crop yield is not affected; but poor are damaged by annual floods. The tube-wells and marginal farmers who find to difficult to rent shallow latrine remain flooded for six months, during which machines and provide fuel, end up with reduced yields. the people use river or flood water for drinking, cook- Moreover, drought causes tube-wells and ponds to ing, washing, and bathing as well as defecation. As a become dry, which increases the burden on the women, result, there is high incidence of water-borne diseases, as they are mainly responsible for fetching water. Some and children suffer from conjunctivitis, rashes, sores, even go to distant places every day to fetch TW water and common cold. for cooking and drinking, while they use river water for bathing and cleaning. The heat stress also makes their In the flash flood prone hotspot, the untimely floods lives miserable. If production of crops decreases, they have huge impacts on the lives and livelihoods of the have less food available for livestock and household villagers. It destroys their only crop of the year, which consumption. Apart from drought, this village is leads to shortages of food and income. Social crime affected by river flood every monsoon, which prevents increases, and in order to survive people have to sell cultivation of Aus and Aman crops. Other than inun- their assets and take loans. Houses are flooded up to dating croplands, these floods do not have any direct chest level and all household goods are damaged. impact on people's assets. But floods have one positive People have difficulty in living, cooking, defecating, effect of increasing land fertility. Thus those lands and moving around. They don't even have fuel wood to which are adjacent to the river have higher productivity boil water and have to defecate in the open, which is and do not suffer from drought in winter. The biggest very embarrassing. After the water recedes, water- flood occurred in 1998, when the water level was so borne diseases, such as cholera, diarrhea, and dysentery, high that even houses were inundated. People had to bring more misery for people and they have nothing to migrate to the school building for weeks and when they survive on. There are no work opportunities. When the returned they found that all their assets have been embankment was built by CNRS two years ago, the damaged or stolen. But fortunately, no one dies directly 36 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h due to the flood or drought. There may be indirect the low lying slum area. The houses, being lower than effects, as when lack of income leads to death due to the adjacent roads, become flooded with knee-level lack of treatment. Apart from the immediate effects of water. Slum dwellers face problems moving around, crop loss or water shortage, these hazards create a ripple cooking, and living in their houses. Moreover, unlike in effect leading to diminishing asset base. But the poor rural areas, these waters are polluted with urban waste people fail to link their problems to the hazards in most which causes bad odor and carries disease-causing cases and consider poverty and lack of financial capital organisms. In times of extreme floods, water even rises as their major constraint. up to the roofs and people are forced to leave their houses and take shelter in the roads or other higher In the waterlogged prone hotspot, due permanent areas. Furniture, clothes, pillows, and all household water-logging situation since 2005, agricultural activi- goods are damaged, and after the water recedes most ties have completely stopped. As all the lands remain things have to be thrown away. People suffer from under water throughout the year, they cannot cultivate waterborne disease, which leads to an extra burden in crops in any of the three seasons. This has led to seri- the form of treatment costs. ous decline in their incomes and living conditions. Previously they used to grow rice, vegetables, water- sector-Wise Impacts: melon, and teel and never had food shortages for their families. Now in absence of agriculture they have been From the above discussions, it is evident that different forced to choose fishing as their primary occupation. types of hazards produce different degrees of impacts on But due to overfishing, the fish population is dwindling different sectors. In all the hotspots, the most affected day by day, reducing the income of fishermen. Some sector is usually agriculture because crop cultivation is also make handicrafts and sell livestock products to highly dependent on nature. While in the cyclone prone earn money. When people find work, they tend to area, crops are damaged occasionally by cyclones, in the migrate temporarily to other rural or urban areas to salinity and tidal flood prone areas crop cultivation is give physical labor. But income from all these sources is gradually becoming difficult due to increased salinity. In very low, pushing people into extreme poverty. The other areas, such as the river and flash prone hotspots, situation becomes worse in monsoon season when the people can grow crops only in the Boro season, whereas water level rises after heavy showers. Houses beside the in waterlogged area, farmers cannot grow crops in any beels get flooded up to knee level, making life difficult season at all. Lack of crop production has a direct for people. Women cannot cook in their kitchens, live- impact on income as rural people mostly depend on stock have to remain standing or be shifted to higher agriculture for their livelihoods. Even when they shift to areas, and children cannot go to school. The schools other occupations, the original income levels are not themselves become waterlogged, often damaging the restored because of lack of work or resources. furniture and library books. In absence of agriculture, it is also difficult to rear cattle because all the food needs The fisheries sector is highly affected in the cyclone to be bought from the market. Women even have to and waterlogged prone hotspots, where cyclones and travel large distance to cut grass for their livestock. saline water have caused ghers to be damaged and fish- Waterlogging also prevents growth of trees and vegeta- eries to die. But in salinity and tidal flood prone ble plants in the area. Even if they plant vegetables in hotspots, the same saline water created opportunities for their yards, the roots rot away due to excess water. The shrimp farming. But the poor are usually against this roads of the village always remain muddy and slippery shrimp cultivation because it leads to increased salinity due to water. Poor income means people have difficulty and further damage of agricultural lands. In both tidal affording good food, education, and health services as flood and waterlogged prone hotspots, people are now well. facing the effects of unsustainable overfishing which has led to dwindling fish populations. In the drainage congestion prone hotspot, there is no permanent waterlogging but overnight heavy showers in The impacts on livestock can be direct or indirect. In monsoon season cause water to accumulate and flood the cyclone prone hotspot, livestock often die due to d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 37 cyclones as people fail to move them to safe shelters. In malnutrition, stress, and increased physical labor arising other areas, such as the waterlogged, drainage conges- out of poverty. While health problems create additional tion, flash flood and river flood prone hotspots, live- treatment expenditures, they also lead to lack of produc- stock are occasionally affected by rising water levels and tivity of labor. Severe consequences such as death only must be moved to higher areas. However, in most areas occur in cyclone prone hotspot and a couple of events people find in difficult to provide food for their cattle such as drowning of children have also been recorded in due to absence of crop cultivation. In some places, like flood prone areas. the salinity and river flood prone areas, grasses also cannot be grown, while in the flash flood prone area, The impacts on education can also be direct or indirect. the grazing lands are flooded in monsoon. Livestock Floods and cyclones often cause schools to remain always serve as an important asset for the poor and closed for weeks and also create communication prob- their products can either be consumed by the house- lems for children. In the river flood prone hotspot, chil- hold or sold in the market. But due to poverty arising dren have to sit on the teacher's bed to take exams, and from lack of income opportunities, people cannot in the water-logged hotspot, young children have to be afford to purchase cattle or have to sell them to earn carried to school by their mothers so that they do not money. drown or damage their books. In all hotspots, however, secondary effects are more severe, as when lack of Trees and vegetation are also severely affected in all income compels parents to stop education of their chil- hotspots, other than the drainage congestion prone dren. Even if some can afford up to primary education, hotspot, as trees are not an integral part of the urban secondary education is out of bounds for most house- life. In drought prone areas, people complained that holds, and the children drop out of school to work with they have no space to grow trees, while in the water- their parents. logged, river and flash flood prone areas, trees cannot be grown due to excess water. In the cyclone, salinity and People of the hazard prone areas try to survive using tidal flood prone hotspots, frequent cyclones cause trees different types of livelihood options which they can to be uprooted, and the soil salinity prevents homestead avail while they face them. Natural disaster affects their gardening. Lack of vegetable and fruit plants lead to current income as well as savings which are observed malnutrition as the poor cannot afford to buy these from the qualitative survey. A majority of the surveyed from the market. households (55 percent) lost family income due to natu- ral disaster (Table 7). Infrastructure damage is severe for the coastal hotspots, where cyclones lead to damage of roads, Storm surges, floods, and river bank/coastal erosion are embankments, bridges and houses, which later need to major hazards that cause huge losses to crops and assets be rebuilt completely. In the drainage congestion and and on humans as well (Table 8). flood prone areas, the damage is comparatively less and minor repairments after disaster can restore the original state. Although floods and water congestion do not destroy large structures, they do damage household Table 7. CoMMon Reasons foR suDDen physical assets such as furniture, equipment, utensils loss of faMIlY InCoMe and clothing. Problem arises when rise in water level Reasons Percentage completely disrupts road communication for few illness/death 11 months, as in the case of flash flood prone hotspot. loss of job 6 Drought usually has no effect on infrastructure or poor harvesting 6 household materials. natural disaster 55 others 3 The health sector is mainly affected by waterborne and not applicable 19 skin diseases, which the people face due to floods, waterlogging and salinity. Long term effects include total 100 38 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Table 8. householD losses Due To naTuRal hazaRDs (percentages) Losses/ Gender Gender impacts Hazards Crops Asset Livestock Fisheries Health Income Education Comm impacts (men) (women) River flood 20 20 8 10 8 16 5 9 6 11 flash flood 11 9 5 - 2 9 1 5 -- -- Rain fed 8 12 5 5 2 10 2 8 -- -- flood storm surge 32 34 24 28 27 35 16 19 16 22 high speed 1 1 -- 1 -- -- -- 1 -- -- winds salinity 16 3 1 3 2 4 -- -- 2 2 Water 15 7 5 4 3 10 1 2 -- -- logging Erosion 24 22 7 6 6 10 5 5 6 11 Vulnerability in the context of study hotspots and the following Figure summarizes the relationship between the various components of vulnerability as well Vulnerability is conceptualized in very different ways by as some potentially relevant determinants of different scholars from different knowledge domains, and even aspects of vulnerability. This movement toward more within the same domain. Turner, et al. (2003) identify integrated views regarding vulnerability is reflected two classic approaches to viewing vulnerability across within the IPCC's definition of vulnerability that is different disciplines. specific to climate change (see also Adger, 2006): · Risk-hazard (RH) models that aim "to understand "Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is suscep- the impact of hazard as a function of exposure to the tible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate hazard event and the dose-response (sensitivity) of the change, including climate variability and extremes." entity exposed." (Carter et al., 2007) · Pressure-and-release (PAR) models in which "risk is explicitly defined as a function of the perturbation, Assessments commonly decompose climate change stressor, or stress and the vulnerability of the exposed vulnerability into three constituent components: expo- unit." sure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, each capturing different elements of vulnerability. The two different frameworks are both incomplete in their conceptualization of vulnerability with the former Exposure:The nature and degree to which a system is emphasizing biophysical processes but neglecting the exposed to significant climatic variations. factors that contribute to system sensitivity or the capacity to affect such sensitivity (Turner et al., 2003). Sensitivity:The degree to which a system is affected, Meanwhile, the latter places greater emphasis on social either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stim- processes that contribute to vulnerability, but underem- uli. The effect may be direct or indirect. phasizes dynamic relationships and feedbacks among biophysical hazards and processes and social vulnerabil- Adaptivecapacity:The ability of a system to adjust to ity processes. climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take Turner, et al. (2003) argue that these two concepts can advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the be unified under a more integrated view of vulnerability, consequences. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 39 Traditionally, the first two determinants (exposure and hazard prone hotspots. It should be noted that these sensitivity) have been viewed as dictating the potential scores are purely judgmental, based on the information for adverse consequences to occur (or `gross' vulnerabil- collected and assessment of the researchers; hence, the ity), thereby providing an indication of potential suscep- relative variation between the scores is more important tibility to adverse impacts. Meanwhile, the third than the absolute value. The table below gives an indi- determinant (adaptive capacity) reflects the ability of cation of the methodological tools which provided data the system to manage, and thereby reduce, `gross' for each of the indicators mentioned. vulnerability. High Vulnerability: From the above table it can be Scoring Inter-Hotspot Vulnerability concluded that both the flood prone hotspots and the three coastal hotspots have the highest level of vulnera- Based on the concepts outlined in the above Figure, an bility compared to the others. This is because of the attempt has been made to assess the vulnerability of the destructive nature of the hazards and the level of eight hotspots by assigning them scores on different economic development of those areas. indicators of social and biophysical vulnerabilities respectively. The scores have been given on a scale of In the flash flood, cyclone and tidal surge prone areas, 1­5, where 1 indicates a lower level and 5 depicts higher the hazards are highly uncertain, giving people very less level of vulnerability. The aggregate scores calculated at time to prepare themselves and save their lives and the bottom of the table gives an indication of the differ- property. River floods are more or less predictable in the ence in the level of vulnerability between different sense that people can get at least a week's time before fIGuRe 5. RelaTIonshIPs aMonG DIffeRenT CoMPonenTs assoCIaTeD WITh VulneRabIlITY (preston and smith, 2009). Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Social vulnerabilities Biophysical vulnerabilities Climatic vulnerability Sensitivity Hazards Coping capacity Exposure Adaptive capacity Sensitivity Resilience · Economic · Hazard intensity Diversification · Hazard frequency · Wealth distribution · Hazard duration · Public health · Soil fertility · Education · Water availability · Information · Hazard predictability · Physical infrastructure · Recovery time · Social cohesion · Land ownership · Women empowerment · Communication [note: Certain indicators have been modified to fit the context of this study] 40 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Table 9. souRCe of InfoRMaTIon foR sCoRInG VulneRabIlITY InDICaToRs Methodological Tools Self-assessment PSD workshops Village mapping Wealth ranking Timeline FGDs Indicators dependence on limited livelihood activities financial inequality health problems lack of education inaccess to new information inaccess to electricity supply social vulnerabilities lack of proper communication inaccess of credit lack of women engagement in paid work inaccess to common property resources lack of go / ngo activities landlessness Unemployment food insecurity lack of hazard protection structure social conflicts / insecurity intensity of hazards frequency of hazards vulnerabilities Biophysical duration of hazard / Recovery time soil infertility Unavailability of fresh water hazard uncertainty Urgency of pre-hazard preparation the flood water rises above threshold levels, yet there is hazards have become highly frequent, people are little they can do to protect themselves. All four hazards affected by another hazard before they can completely cause massive destruction of crops, disrupt communica- recover from the previous one. tion, damage houses and physical property, and also hamper normal lives of people to a great extent. In the Besides these biophysical vulnerabilities, these hotspots flood prone areas, other than the hazard times, the soil have also scored high in terms of socioeconomic vulnera- is fertile and crops can be grown successfully in at least bilities. Due to various climatic hazards, landlessness is one season of the year. However, in the coastal regions, gradually increasing in almost all hotspots, thus severely intrusion of saline water during the hazards also reduces affecting the incomes of people, as rural people mostly soil fertility in the consecutive seasons, and as such depend on agro-based livelihoods. In the river flood, d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 41 Table 10. VulneRabIlITY assessMenT of The eIGhT ClIMaTe ChanGe-RelaTeD hoTsPoTs of eaCC sTuDY. Hotspots Drainage congestion Waterlogged prone Tidal surge prone Flash flood prone River flood prone Cyclone prone Drought prone Salinity prone prone Indicators dependence on limited livelihood activities 5 4 5 4 4 4 2 1 financial inequality 5 2 2 2 3 2 5 5 health problems 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 lack of education 5 5 5 2 5 4 4 2 inaccess to new information 4 5 5 3 4 4 4 1 inaccess to electricity supply 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 1 social vulnerabilities lack of proper communication 2 5 5 2 5 5 3 1 inaccess of credit 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 lack of women engagement in paid work 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 1 inaccess to common property resources 1 2 5 2 3 3 1 2 lack of go / ngo activities 2 3 2 2 4 2 4 2 landlessness 3 5 4 1 5 3 3 5 Unemployment 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 1 food insecurity 3 4 4 4 5 5 3 2 lack of hazard protection structure 1 5 4 2 4 3 4 2 social conflicts / insecurity 2 2 5 2 4 2 3 4 intensity of hazards 2 5 5 4 4 5 5 1 frequency of hazards 3 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 vulnerabilities Biophysical duration of hazard / Recovery time 3 5 3 5 5 5 5 1 soil infertility 3 2 1 1 5 4 4 5 Unavailability of fresh water 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 hazard uncertainty 1 3 5 2 3 5 5 3 Urgency of pre-hazard preparation 1 4 5 1 2 5 5 3 Overall vulnerability 64 89 93 61 91 89 87 55 Vulnerability level High (above 80) Moderate (60­80) low (below 60) flash flood, cyclone and salinity prone hotspots, river these hotspots, even the richest people have as little as bank erosion is causing huge loss of agricultural lands, 3­5 bigha of land, while the poor may possess 1­2 bigha which is diminishing the natural assets of people, thus or none at all. On the other hand, huge financial inequal- forcing them to adopt other livelihood options. In all ities exist in drought and tidal flood prone hotspots, 42 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h where the rich are big landlords possessing as much as Bengal, declining crop production has forced people to 50­100 bigha of land, while the poor have merely 1­2 shift to fisheries as their primary livelihood option. bigha. In these areas, the poor are not prone to losing However, in the flash flood prone, area as people are land due to erosion, but their original asset base is very restricted to enter the protected wetland areas, fishing is limited. As a result, these people have to lease land from not possible as an alternate income source. others or work as laborers on others' lands. In a few hotspots, climatic hazards have led to new social Food insecurity is a direct consequence of landlessness, conflicts or increased the previous ones. In the salinity because when people cannot grow crops, they cannot prone hotspot, there is conflict of interest between provide food for their families. In rural cultures, a portion shrimp farmers and crop cultivators. While the former of the harvested crops are kept for the household while are taking advantage of the situation and even causing the rest are sold to the market to earn money. The stored more salinity by bringing in more saline water, the latter grains sustain people for months while the money is used are gradually losing fertility of their lands. Since the to buy other household goods and services. In the shrimp farmers are mainly rich and powerful people, the cyclone and flash flood prone hotspots, crops are occa- poor cannot fight back and at one point a situation arises sionally damaged due to unpredictable events. Salinity when the poor are compelled to sell or lease away their also reduces yield or increases input expenditures, which lands to the shrimp cultivators. In the flash flood prone means that the farmers have to reduce the fraction of hotspot, social conflicts have long existed for unknown grains they keep for their households. In flood prone reasons, but lack of income and resources exacerbate the hotspots, the lands can only be cultivated in any one problem. Social insecurity such as theft and harassment season, for which enough crops are not produced to increases. Men do not want to leave their families and sustain the household for the whole year. Fishermen and migrate to other places for work. However, in the river day laborers are usually among the poorest in all the flood and cyclone prone areas, people mention that they villages and their incomes are not sufficient to provide have good social cohesion and females feel confident to good meals for their families. Moreover, lack of home- live alone in absence of their husbands or sons. In the stead gardening in flood and salinity prone hotspots cyclone prone area, social security is also good and people means that people are unable to consume vegetables and can leave their assets and houses during cyclones without fruits. Problems in rearing livestock also mean the people worrying that they could be stolen. are deprived of proteins such as milk and eggs. The market prices of all food items have also increased, Poor health and poor education, which are direct or resulting in more miseries for people. indirect impacts of climate change, also increase vulner- ability of people. Lack of education means new genera- Due to huge population growth, decreases in agricul- tions cannot deviate from the traditional natural tural activities, and unsustainable fishing practices, resource-based livelihoods of their parents and work in people are gradually becoming unemployed or earning service or manufacturing sectors. While some hazards less than before. In the tidal flood prone hotspot, such as cyclones may cause people to become physically decreases in marine fish population means that wages of disabled, all hazards such as floods and salinity lead to hired fishermen are decreasing. In the case of river and water-borne and skin diseases. However, long-term flash flood prone areas, work availability is also declin- effects of malnutrition and poor childhood development ing and people have no option but to stay idle for few make people more vulnerable to further diseases. Poor months. Even educated young adults fail to find suitable health translates to poor labor productivity and hence jobs due to lack of industrialization and development in lower ability to cope with hazards. But sometimes, poor rural areas. The end results are increasing migration to education and health are also results of non-climatic urban areas, declining living status, and increase of factors such as lack of educational or health centers in poverty and crime. the villages and lack of awareness. In the tidal surge prone area, where people have access Poor communication facilities increase vulnerability by to common property resources such as the Bay of decreasing people's mobility and livelihood options. In d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 43 the flash and river flood prone hotspots, a lot of time is government institutions including health care centers, required to travel by waterways to the nearest upazilla agricultural bureaus. Yet the poor people cannot afford town to obtain basic goods and services. In the cyclone to use these services at times. The education level is prone hotspot, poor communication means that people quite low in this area, and unemployment is high even cannot travel to safe shelter easily and relief materials among those who are educated. also do not reach them in time. If transportation is poor, an area becomes detached and suffers from lack of devel- In the waterlogged prone hotspot, the hazard is anthro- opment activities by government and NGOs. People in pogenic rather than climate induced. The area scores these areas also do not have access to new information quite high in terms of socio-economic indicators, as the and cannot learn by replicating others' successes. education level is comparatively high, especially among women, and employment in service sectors is also rela- Hazard protection structures, such as embankments and tively high. People were once highly dependent on agri- cyclone or flood shelters, are also not adequately present culture for their livelihoods but now that their lands are in these areas. In the coastal hotspots, the embankments completely submerged under water throughout the year, have not been repaired since construction and currently they have shifted to alternate livelihoods such as fishing, they have been damaged at places making them incapa- handicrafts, tailoring, van driving, etc. If the embank- ble of restricting entry of sea water. In the flash flood ment had not been intentionally cut by relevant author- prone are, a submergible embankment was constructed ities as part of the TRM project, the village would not by a NGO, but it is not capable of protecting the crops have suffered from these hardships. Community people adequately and is not strong enough to sustain for years. reflected that once they were self sufficient as they could Cyclone shelters are present in the cyclone prone and cultivate crops in all three seasons on their own lands tidal surge prone hotspots, but not in adequate quanti- but now they are trapped in extreme poverty due to this ties and they do not cater for the needs of women and permanent waterlogging. livestock. Low Vulnerability: Among the others, the least vulner- Moderate Vulnerability: The drought prone and able hotspot is the drainage congestion prone area, as waterlogged prone hotspots have been ranked as waterlogging only occurs for few days after persistent moderately vulnerable because the hazards affecting heavy monsoon showers. People have to live precari- these areas are not as intense as those mentioned above. ously for few days after which they can return to normal In the drought prone area, the hazard is highly predict- lives with comparatively fewer damages. As these slum able as it occurs every year in the dry season; and as it is dwellers are not dependent on natural resources such as a gradual process, the impacts are not realized in one land and water bodies for their livelihoods, drainage day, as with cyclones and floods. The major impacts of congestion does not have any long-term impact on their drought are loss in crop yield, increased irrigation costs income generating activities. Moreover, unlike all other and decrease in ground water supply during the months hotspots, women in the slum are also involved in paid of March­May. Unlike other hazards, drought does not work, and the economic diversification is higher. If destroy physical infrastructure or force people to leave compared to urban dwellers, huge financial inequalities their houses in search of shelters. In terms of socio- exist with the slum people who are mostly migrants economic indicators, financial inequality is quiet high in from different rural areas of the country. Living in an this area as a few big landowners possess most of the urban area, people have more access to information and land, while most families own very little land and work services compared to those in rural hotspots. as sharecroppers or renters on others' lands. Since people in this area are highly dependent on agriculture Explaining Variation in Intra-hotspot Vulnerability for their livelihoods, drought has a significant impact in their incomes. However, the drought prone hotspot As discussed above, while the level of vulnerability selected for EACC study is quite developed compared varies from one hotspot to another, it is also different to other hotspots, as it has good roads and transporta- between different groups within the same hotspot. tion systems, lots of NGO-operated schools, Based on the findings of field research, the following 44 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h three groups of people are considered as most workload increases after a disaster as they have vulnerable. to help with house repairs, cleaning, and maintenance in addition to their routine work. Women: In all the eight hotspots, women are generally When belonging to a minority ethnic group is more vulnerable than men to climate-related impacts superposed on women, their conditions are due to their social status, cultural norms, lack of access further exacerbated. For example, although all to and control over resources, and lack of participation Bengali households in the tidal flood prone in decision-making processes. Women bear multiple village have tube-wells, households of the responsibilities at home, including food preparation, Rakhaine tribal community of that village do provision of cooking fuel, health care, and caring for have any source of safe water supply due to children and their education. It has been found that poor development of that area. As a result, women living in poverty bear a disproportionate burden Rakhaine girls have to travel long distances on of consequences of climate change because of their foot to fetch water. Like age, wealth status also marginalized status and dependence on local natural governs the impact on workload. However, the resources. Although it is found that women are in wealth status of the household sometimes general more vulnerable to climate change impacts than determines the degree of impact on the men, there are significant differences in the vulnerabili- women. For example, in the drought prone ties among the women based on location, age, educa- hotspot, women belonging to relatively wealth- tion, wealth status, ethnic group, and overall asset base. ier families suffer less because their husbands Some of these socio-economic impacts observed in the can afford to employ servants or laborers to do EACC study are outlined below: many of the work like looking after cattle, repairing houses, post-harvest activities. 1. Traditional division of labor resulting in increased b. Engaging in additional activities outside regular workload: In all hotspots, climate change related domestic works: In the waterlogged hotspot, events increase the domestic burdens on women, as where permanent waterlogging over the last additional work needs to be done to deal with the five years have compelled people to shift from adverse situation. However, these responsibilities land-based to water-based livelihoods, women do not increase in equal amounts in all hotspots. In often have to accompany their husbands for some places while women have to spend on time catching fish at night. In both waterlogged and effort in performing their household chores, in and flash flood prone hotspot, women also others they have to get involved in additional activ- help their male counterparts in making handi- ities which were previously not part of their normal crafts such as mats or fishing traps, which are works. Regarding the increase in workload, two later sold in the market. However, the types of vulnerabilities have been highlighted: increased workload poses a greater impact on a. Investing more time and energy in usual household older women. In the waterlogged prone hot- chores: In the saline and drought prone areas spot, older women have to look after them- where fresh water is in short supply, stress is selves, as their sons or daughters cannot afford put on women who have responsibility to sup- to bear the costs. They roam around the vil- ply it to their families, often being forced to lage all day, fish on their own using their own walk long distances, risking their health and dilapidated boats and nets, and sleep in some- their personal safety in the process. In absence one else's house at night. They went into tears of agriculture, many people in the waterlogged while narrating how waterlogging has sub- hotspot cannot afford to buy fodder for their merged all their lands, obliging them to live in cattle, so it is the women who have go to dis- such a helpless condition. tant places to gather grass. Their usual job of 2. Social positions and limited access to resources creating cooking also becomes difficult when rising in deterioration of health, hygiene, and sanitation: water level compels them to raise their stoves Conditions of health and hygiene may deteriorate or go to neighboring houses to cook. Women's due to a number of reasons such as lack of food, d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 45 increased incidence to diseases, poor sanitation waterlogging or drainage congestion, women facilities, and decreased financial capability to pay face difficulties in conducting their personal for medical treatment. With respect to health and sanitary tasks because toilets get flooded and hygiene, five main types of vulnerabilities have they have to wait till night to ensure their pri- been identified by the EACC study: vacy. In drought prone areas, scarcity of water a. Women's position in the household and innate means that women cannot bathe frequently. nurturing characteristics leading to malnutrition: They go to some distant river or pond and Natural hazards such as flood, drought, bathe there in the afternoon hours while men cyclone, and waterlogged reduce agricultural are resting at home. production and cause food insecurity of the d. Limited financial resources and less mobility household because poor people cannot afford reduce access to medical services: Women do not to purchase food from the market. Under this leave home to visit doctors unless there is a circumstance, a skewed intra-household food serious disease, so their problems are usually distribution arises because it is usually the overlooked. In most hotspots, when climatic women who consume less to preserve enough impacts decreased household income, the food their children and family members. For families cannot afford to spend money on instance, in the flash flood prone hotspot, medical treatment, and the women are the some mothers mentioned that they sometimes first ones to sacrifice. In the villages of the willingly go unfed to ensure that their chil- flash and river flood prone hotspots, there are dren are not starving. While malnutrition may no hospitals or medical centers, and people cause physical weakness and reduced immu- have to go to the nearest upazilla town by nity, it also can result in low birth weight and boat for treatment. This additional transpor- poor health status of new-born babies. For tation cost and time required often hinder example, in the drainage congestion prone women from enjoying proper and timely urban hotspot, the child mortality rate is quite treatment. One woman in the drought prone high, which may be due to poor growth of the hotspot complained that she is reluctant to children during pregnancy. visit the local doctors because they give the b. Lack of access to safe water, resulting in water- same medicine regardless of the problem-- borne and skin diseases: Floods, waterlogging, and also do not behave well. drainage congestion, and cyclones all increase e. Lack of access to information and lower mobility the incidence of water borne diseases such as leading to greater injury or death: During diarrhoea, cholera, typhoid. These diseases extreme events such as cyclones and storm mainly spread as sanitation systems collapse surges, women are more susceptible to injuries and people start defecating in open places. In and death than men because they do not get the urban hotspot, the situation becomes information in time or cannot leave the worse as water gets polluted with sewage and household until everyone else has evacuated. garbage from the nearby drains and canals. A In the cyclone prone hotspot, it was found couple of women in the water-logging, flood that of the 341 victims of cyclone Aila, most and salinity prone hotspots showed that they casualties were women. Some women also have skin infections due to prolonged submer- suffered injuries and were disabled when their gence in water or using saline water for house- sarees got entangled with tree branches on hold activities. In the river and flash flood their way to cyclone shelters. Death of hus- prone areas, women mentioned that during bands or the male earning member of the floods they are compelled to drink flood water family also has a significant effect on women. because all the tube-wells get flooded, and it If a woman's husband dies or becomes dis- is not possible to boil the water every time. abled, she is left on her own in the quest for c. Poor quality of physical capital leading to poor survival either as a female- headed or female- hygiene and sanitation: During floods, managed household. 46 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h 3. Social status of women leading to increased social inse- signals during cyclones are males, for which curity: The EACC study reflects that women's they feel quite left out. Female volunteers could safety is jeopardized mainly due to four circum- help them to move to shelters properly and take stances, which are: some last-minute preparations. In the drainage a. Increased male out-migration creating insecurity congestion and flood prone areas, when women of female-managed households: In some areas, have to stay on the roads or cyclone shelters climate change generates resource shortages during disaster times, they feel quite uncom- and unreliable job markets, which lead to fortable sharing the space with strange men. increased male-out migration and more d. Higher demand for limited resources leading to women left behind with additional agricul- post-disaster conflicts: After a cyclone, it is usu- tural and households duties. Temporary ally the women who have to stand in long migration for work is common for men in queues all day to get relief materials. most hotspots, when lack of income-generat- Overcrowding, quarrels, and fights are com- ing activities compels them to move to neigh- mon in these situations, and women often boring villages or towns in search of work. In have to go through these conflicts to get a the tidal flood prone hotspot, men usually stay minor share of the relief materials. at sea for months, and the women are left in 4. Cultural norms leading to volatile marriage and fam- the villages to look after the house and the ily life: In terms of impacts on marriage and family children on their own. Social insecurity is life, the EACC study has produced two main high as theft increases and women become observations: susceptible to harassment by other men. An a. Early marriage: When climatic hazards deteri- interesting finding in this hotspot is that, in orate the livelihood status of a household, mar- order to ensure that their wives do not become rying off any young girls seems to be a means disloyal to them behind their backs, the men of shedding some burden. A respondent in the usually feel more comfortable leaving their water-logged hotspot reflected that she wives behind when they are pregnant. dropped out of school so she could be married. b. Segregation from kinship ties leading to insecurity The trend of early marriage is relatively high in new environments: Climate change-related in the drought prone hotspot, where there is hazards often push widowed or divorced chronic poverty due to crop loss and generally women, as well as young girls, to move to low level of education. A girl's marriage is also urban areas in search of work. When females dependent on the amount of dowry her father migrate to new areas on their own, they pri- can pay to the groom; frequent hazards dimin- marily have to face the hostile situation of ish a family's ability to give a substantial their destination and adjust to the new cul- amount of dowry, which affects the daughter's ture. They are highly insecure in the new subsequent marital life. environment, for instance, in urban slums b. Intra-household conflicts: Resource scarcity and where many of these women end up. poverty arising from climate change impacts c. Limited gender-sensitive institutional support can also translate to conflicts within the leading to insecurity on the way to and at the shel- household. It was found that one woman in ters: In the cyclone prone hotspot, it is common the salinity prone hotspot was abandoned by that young girls and even adult women are her husband when her parents failed to pro- harassed on their way to cyclone shelters. vide the dowry demanded. When a family is Women complained that the cyclone shelter displaced from a rural area to an urban slum, themselves are not gender sensitive, as they do the dynamics of the urban culture often influ- not have separate rooms and toilets for men ence intra-family conflicts resulting in separa- and women, especially for pregnant and lactat- tion and re-partnering. ing mothers. Moreover, women mentioned that 5. Cultural norms and limited access to educational insti- all the volunteers who disseminate warning tutions hampering proper education: In terms of d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 47 impacts on education, the EACC study has pro- others' lands. When crop productivity decreases due to duced two main observations: climate change-induced natural hazards, it brings about a. Age old tradition of undermining importance of adverse impacts on employment and incomes. Poor female education leading to high drop-outs in gen- farmers usually store a significant portion of their agri- eral: Generally it has been observed that school cultural produce for household consumption, which dropout rates are high and women in all hot- sustains the whole family for months. If crop yield falls, spots have less education than men. Natural household food security is at stake; to afford basic food disasters like cyclones significantly reduce the items, the families have to forgo other expenses such as asset base of a household, and one of the on health, education, clothing, etc. Rich farmers, on the impacts is that poor families can longer afford other hand, are more resilient to climatic hazards to send their children to school. When there is because they often get fixed rents for their leased-out a choice, it is the girls who are first dropped lands regardless of production or have diversified liveli- out of school because their education is consid- hood options which are not always natural resource ered less important than their brothers'. For based. instance, in a family with three sons and three daughters in the drought prone hotspot, it was Crop loss due to flash floods often brings food insecu- found that two of the sons have moved to the rity to a poor farmer's household. Since Boro cropping town for higher education, while one of the requires modern inputs and considerable investments, daughters slightly younger than her brothers crop loss due to flash floods devastates the hopes of stopped education after she failed in SSC once. poor and marginal farmers who often become loan b. Social structure and access to institutions creating defaulters following such a disaster. Flash floods also variation between hotspots: Although female destroy houses built of mud, which often belong to poor education is low in all areas, there exists signif- farmers. Loss of crops and houses sometimes put poor icant variation among the hotspots. For exam- farmers in extreme economic hardships. ple, in the waterlogged prone hotspot, females are much more educated compared to those in In the river flood prone hotspot, once a prolonged other areas. One of the reasons can be presence flood continues past mid-August, it becomes a night- of good quality primary and secondary schools mare for poor and marginal farmers because they within close vicinity. And as most young moth- cannot transplant Aman paddy in time. Even before ers are educated at least up to primary level, transplantation, they accept certain levels of crop loss. they are quite passionate about ensuring proper If the flood event continues up to September, as it education for their children. In contrast, in the happened in the deluge of 1998, the farmers lose as drainage congestion prone hotspot, although much as 40 percent of projected yield; this is a huge there are many schools in the area, slum girls blow to micro-scale food security and a macro-scale do not have much access to educational institu- (i.e., national) economic catastrophe. In such a case, it tions because of financial inabilities. One inter- becomes almost impossible to cope with the aftermath esting observation is that cultural norms in the of the flood, especially in terms of food insecurity and slum also expect that girls should go to reli- hunger. gious schools (madrassas) for their education. Salinity in the dry season appears to be a major concern Poor and Marginal Farmers: In rural areas of for poor farmers. Since input-intensive high yielding Bangladesh most people are involved in crop production Boro paddy is grown during the dry season, poor farm- as their primary livelihood activity. However, as popula- ers need to borrow money from wealthy money lenders. tion is increasing and the same amount of land is With diminishing profitability, crop production does divided among children of the next generation, individ- not facilitate economic emancipation. Economic hard- ual land ownership is declining significantly. As a result, ship of the poor and marginal farmers therefore remains most famers these days have an insignificant amount of unabated. Moreover, in all these three hotspots, river land and mainly work as sharecroppers or renters on bank erosion is also increasing landlessness among 48 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h marginal farmers, who are forced to migrate temporarily subsistence. Nowadays, the river becomes completely to other areas to work as day laborers. dry during winter months, and even in the monsoon when water levels rise, the fish population is too small Drought affects Boro crops profusely, especially during to allow a significant catch. Fish culture is also possible March and April. Lack of irrigation during the peak in the ponds as well due to water shortage. Moreover, drought period can result in chita formation and reduce most ponds are privately owned and common people do yield significantly. And occasional lack of appreciable not have access to them. In the waterlogged prone rainfall in late July and August can jeopardize land hotspot, in the absence of agricultural activities, many preparation for Aman transplantation. Livestock also people have started fishing in the Beel area and this suffers, with many farmers having to sell their cattle at overfishing is causing the fish population to dwindle very low prices because they lack both fodder and very fast. As a result, the fishermen have to stay awake drinking water. all night standing in the waters to get enough of a catch to be sold in the market the following day. In the tidal flood prone hotspot, standing crops, espe- cially vegetables and Aman seedlings often are ruined by In the tidal surge prone area, unsustainable fishing in the strong reverse osmosis caused by salinity. Loss of the sea has also led to decline in fish population, and fisher- Aman season is often translated into food insecurity men now have go into deeper waters. The fishermen and hunger for poor and marginal farmers. Once seed- often defy cyclone warnings, especially when successive lings are ruined, it becomes a costly affair on the part of warnings are issued and they apprehend loss of fishing the poor farmers to replace them. season by spending time on shore. Sometimes rough weather on the open sea capsizes their fishing boats and In the waterlogged prone hotspot, it appears that most they drown. The owners of these trawlers are usually of the lands are inundated year round. However, the rich fish businessmen who hire labor at cheaper wages to intensity of waterlogging varies seasonally: all the lands catch fish from the deep sea. Fishermen are among the undergo deep water during peak monsoon, while in the most vulnerable groups because they completely depend dry season the water column on the lands are generally on naturally bred fisheries without any input from knee high and the roads and other notable infrastruc- themselves. If they could breed fish in enclosed ponds or ture become inundation-free. Farmers who had been ghers, their yield would have been higher. Only in salin- involved in crop production for generations are now ity prone hotspot, shrimp cultivation is conducted by either unemployed or work as migratory day laborers in rich people in enclosed ghers where intrusion of saline nearby villages. water has created new opportunities for them while causing hardships for marginal farmers. Poor and marginal farmers are usually hand-to mouth- people with no cash savings or fixed assets which can be Vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of expo- used to recover from disasters. In the absence of educa- sure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. In this section an tion, all they have is the ability to provide physical labor. attempt has been made to assess the relative vulnerabili- As there are few employment opportunities in the ties of the eight hotspots by assigning arbitrary scores to village, these men have to move to towns and cities to various indicators of socioeconomic and biophysical work as mud cutters, rickshaw pullers, factory workers, vulnerabilities. It has been observed that vulnerability is etc., leaving their families behind. relatively high in the three coastal and two flood prone hotpots, moderate in case of the drought and water- Fishermen: In most areas, fishermen are the poorest logged prone areas, and low in the urban drainage ones, and as their livelihoods are based on natural congestion prone hotspot. Yet within individual resources, their incomes are also greatly affected by hotspots, not all groups are subject to equal degrees of climatic hazards. In the drought prone hotspot, fisher- vulnerability. In most hotspots it has been found that men complained that in the past the adjacent women, marginal farmers, and fishermen are among the Punarbhaba River used to have some water even in the most vulnerable groups because of their social positions, dry season, enabling them to obtain some fish for their asset bases or livelihood practices. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 49 CR oss-CuTTI nG obse RVaTIons: C o P I nG People in the waterlogged and drainage congestion sTR aTe GI es VeR sus aD aPTaTI on prone hotspots migrate to the nearby paved high roads. In the waterlogged prone hotspot, villagers have to existing Coping Mechanisms temporarily live under the open sky on the only paved high road of the village along with their livestock or Coping mechanisms vary according to the type of move to Union Council, which is further away. In the hazard in the different hotspots. Even when some of the drainage congestion prone hotspot the slum dwellers coping mechanisms are similar for multiple hotspots, the also take temporary shelter in construction sites nearby. extent of use and the time of usage vary. The following People in the flash flood prone area cannot go anywhere matrix (Matrix 1) and paragraphs describe the various and so stay in their houses amidst the flood water. Very steps people take to cope with hazards and the factors few people who have relatives in other villages move to which constraint them in certain cases. their houses during floods. In the drought prone area, people do not have to leave their houses due to any Moving to safe shelter: Moving to a safe shelter during a disasters. It was only during the devastating flood of hazard is the first step that people take to save their 1998, which inundated the whole village, that people lives and personal properties from damage. Before temporarily moved to the school building. cyclone shelters were built, people in the tidal surge prone hotspot used to move to paved high roads or Temporary Structures, Cooking and Food Storage: other highlands. Although today there are a few Sometimes during hazards, people build temporary struc- cyclone shelters, the nearest one is at least 1 km away, tures to protect themselves and their belongings. In the and they are not spacious enough to accommodate all tidal flood prone hotspot, people build machas to keep the people. People normally do not move to these shel- their important documents or belongings safe. Along ters until it is signal 6 or 7. In the salinity prone with this, people in the flash flood prone hotspot make hotspot, there are no cyclone shelters, and when people raised platforms with bamboo for living, rice storage, and get warnings about impending cyclones, they move cooking. In the river flood prone area, people plan ahead their children to other houses which are stronger and and make high ceilings with planks of wood to store their located in relatively higher areas. When their houses goods. In the waterlogged or drainage congestion prone are damaged by cyclones or inundated with water, hotspots, people do not build machas but in the latter they people move to nearby roads or newly created high- hang their utensils with ropes from the ceilings. Women lands. Some also use the school building as temporary in the waterlogged and flash flood prone hotspots use tin residence. containers to raise their cooking apparatus, while in the river flood and drainage congestion prone hotspots, they People in the cyclone prone hotspot move to cyclone cook on their beds. Sometimes women in the water- shelters during hazards, but as these shelters are over- logged, drainage congestion and tidal flood prone areas crowded with poor latrine or drinking water facilities, have to go to their neighbors' houses to cook or share people have to face numerous difficulties. Women do stoves when they all are forced to shift to the roads. not like these shelters because there are no separate rooms for men and women. In order to keep warm, People in the urban slum said that whenever they feel people often burn papers or wood in the cyclone shel- that water level is going to rise, they try to finish their ters. Some who fail to reach shelters in time take shelter cooking the day beforehand, or at least keep boiled in tree tops or tie themselves to trees so that they are water for their families. They usually eat dry food like not blown away. In the river flood prone hotspot, people Chira, molasses, and bread when they cannot cook. The migrate to higher charlands during floods. They have to poor in the tidal flood prone area store dry food before- rent the land for the period of their stay, which is not hand in portable earthen ovens, whereas the rich have possible for everyone due to lack of money. This form of enough savings to live on bought food during hazards. migration is becoming even more difficult as all the But in waterlogged hotspots, people mentioned that charlands are getting smaller due to erosion and as the they hardly have enough rice to eat every day so making migrating population is increasing. dry food such as chira, muri out of rice is out of 50 MaTRIx 1. exIsTInG CoPInG MeChanIsMs Coping mechanisms / Cyclone prone / River flood Drainage Riverbank / Hotspots Salinity prone Tidal Flood prone Water logging congestion Flash flood prone Drought prone Coastal erosion moving to safe in salinity prone people in cyclone people villagers have to slum dwellers also people in flash in drought people migrate shelter hotspot, there are prone hotspot migrate to temporarily live take temporary flood prone area prone area, with the whole no cyclone shelters move to cyclone higher under the open shelter in do not have any people do not family. and when people shelters during charland sky on the only construction sites scope to go have to leave get warnings about hazards, but as during paved high road nearby. anywhere and so their houses impending these shelters are floods. of the village stay in their due to any cyclones, they overcrowded with along with their houses amidst disasters. move their children poor latrine or livestock or move the flood water. to other houses drinking water to Union council very few people which are stronger facilities, people which is further who have and located in have to face lot of away. relatives in other relatively higher difficulties. Women villages, move to areas. do not prefer these their houses shelters because during floods. there are no separate rooms for men and women. temporary people store people store people plan people do not people do not people raise structures, cooking biscuits, molasses, biscuits, molasses, ahead and build machas but build machas but platforms with and food storage candles, dry food, candles, dry food, make high in the latter they in the latter they bamboo for living, life saving life saving ceiling with hang their hang their utensils rice storage and medicines, oral medicines, oral planks of utensils with with ropes from cooking. saline under the saline under the wood to ropes from the the ceilings. earth or inside the earth or inside the store their ceilings. bamboo. bamboo. they goods. sometimes carry dry food with sometimes women in the them to the women in the waterlogged, cyclone shelters. waterlogged, drainage drainage congestion and congestion and tidal flood prone tidal flood prone areas have to go areas have to go to their neighbors' to their neighbors' houses to cook or houses to cook share stoves when or share stoves they all are forced when they all are to shift to the forced to shift to roads. the roads. continued on next page t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h MaTRIx 1. exIsTInG CoPInG MeChanIsMs (continued) Coping mechanisms / Cyclone prone / River flood Drainage Riverbank / Hotspots Salinity prone Tidal Flood prone Water logging congestion Flash flood prone Drought prone Coastal erosion dealing with in cyclone, salinity in cyclone, salinity livestock take livestock take people often livestock and tidal flood and tidal flood shelter on the shelter on the build floating prone areas, where prone areas, where roads along with roads along with platforms for their cyclone shelters cyclone shelters people. people. cattle or shift cannot cannot them to adjacent accommodate all accommodate all villages when people, taking people, taking possible. livestock to shelters livestock to is not possible. As a shelters is not result, they are possible. As a released so that result, they are they can find a safe released so that shelter for they can find a themselves. safe shelter for themselves. safe water in waterlogged pond-sand filter people . people areas, when death (psf) is the main ultimately ultimately use of fish caused source of drinking use the the flood extreme bad odors water after hazards flood waters waters for after Aila, the in cyclone prone for household chairman employed area when all the household purposes laborers to retrieve ponds and canals purposes. the dead fish and become filled with also apply saline water. local bleaching powders ngos (e.g. muslim to the water. Aid UK, Rupantor) d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s provide such facilities. 51 52 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h question. In the flash flood prone area, dry foods are the houses. Apart from these shifting practices, livestock sometimes donated by the government or NGOs, but feed is greatly reduced as people cannot even afford to the amount is never sufficient. People in the salinity buy food for themselves, let alone their livestock. In the prone hotspot mentioned that when they face food flash flood prone hotspot, grazing lands are flooded and crisis during cyclones, the rich often give them some livestock are made to feed on stored hay, paddy, soya food and sometimes their relatives from adjacent seeds. villages also come to help. In the cyclone prone hotspot, people store biscuits, molasses, candles, dry food, life- Access to safe water: Getting safe water is a huge problem saving medicines, and oral salines under the earth or during hazards and people adopt different ways to cope inside the bamboo. They carry dry food with them to with this problem. In the tidal flood and drought prone the cyclone shelters. When relief is provided they have areas, people go to distant places or other villages to get to stand in queues for long periods just for a fist full of fresh water from tube-wells for drinking and cooking. rice, and they sometimes have to come home Where this is not possible, as in the case of river and empty-handed. flash flood prone areas, people ultimately use the flood waters for household purposes. In the latter they try to Schools and education: In the cyclone prone hotspot, boil it, but lack of fuel wood hinders them. One time schools are kept closed during disasters because they are NGOs provided them with water purifying tablets. used as cyclone shelters or temporary residences for Pond-Sand Filter (PSF) is the main source of drinking homeless people. In other places like the river and flash water after hazards in cyclone prone area when all the flood prone areas, children face difficulty in going to ponds and canals become filled with saline water. Local school and so attendance remains very low. In the river NGOs (e.g., Muslim Aid UK, Rupantor) provide such flood prone area, students often take exams sitting on facilities. Some of the households install rainwater the teacher's bed. In the waterlogged area, parents do harvesting tanks, for pure and portable water supply. In not want their children to miss school and so carry the waterlogged hotspot, when dead fish caused extremely young children to school so that they do not get bad odors after Aila, the chairman employed laborers to drowned or damage their books on the way. When retrieve the dead fish and also apply bleaching powders water level rises in the school campus, the headmaster, to the water. Reduction in food consumption occurs along with the older students, stacks the school furni- automatically during or after any hazards as people ture one over another, so that they do not get damaged. cannot afford to purchase enough food for their fami- They also move the library books to a higher place. In lies. In such cases, they stay hungry, eating only very the salinity prone hotspot, children have to cross a canal little per day. by foot to reach their schools, and so they carry an extra uniform with them. Change irrigation practices: In the drought prone hotspot, people have to provide extra water during March­May Dealing with livestock: Shifting livestock to safe shelters so that the crops are not affected by water stress. People becomes a burden during hazard time. In cyclone, salin- who do not have their own shallow machines have to ity and tidal flood prone areas, where cyclone shelters pay 2.5 mon of rice for irrigating each bigha of land and are not enough to accommodate all people, taking live- the fuel cost as well. The opposite situation prevails in stock to shelters is not possible. As a result, they are the waterlogged hotspot. Although most people cannot released so that they can find a safe shelter for them- cultivate in any season due to water-logging, some selves. In the flash flood prone area, people often build people whose lands are relatively higher can grow Boro floating platforms for their cattle or shift them to adja- crops in the winter. In this case, they perform reverse cent villages when possible. In the water-logged and irrigation, i.e., they pump water out of their lands. drainage congestion prone hotspots, livestock take shel- ter on the roads along with people during excessive Temporary migration: Migrating temporarily to other floods. In the former, livestock remain standing in their rural or urban areas during hazards is a common prac- sheds when water level rises for few hours during the tice in most hotspots. In the salinity prone hotspot, men day. In the latter, poultry are often kept on the roof of often migrate to their neighboring village (Nakna) d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 53 where they work in the agricultural lands as laborers UK (an NGO) provided a radio to almost all the house- during monsoon. Others move to Rangamati, holds so they can get signals on time. In the salinity Bandarban, or Barisal where they earn money by felling prone hotspot, people complained that no one ever trees or working in the saw mills. Some work as rick- came in their village to deliver any signals, but they shaw pullers in Dhaka and Barisal for a month or two learn about upcoming hazards through TV and radios. and come back to the village as soon as they find rick- They can also predict cyclones by looking at the wind shaw pulling very strenuous. Not many women migrate speed and water currents. In the tidal flood prone for work, but two widowed women who have no one to hotspot, people stay home when the signal is 2 or signal look after or earn for them went to work as cook and 3, but when it is 6 or 7 everyone moves to the cyclone housemaid in Khulna, but after a year or so one of them shelters with their belongings. If the fishermen are had to come back as she had two minor children with home during a low signal they can decide whether to go no one to look after them. to the sea or not, but those who are already out in the sea have little option. In the river flood prone area, In the flash flood prone hotspot, young people, espe- people also rely on experience to predict disasters by cially men, migrate to other districts (Munshiganj, looking at river flow and rainfall patterns. Sylhet and Chittagong) for work as day laborers during floods. Women do not migrate or work outside home; Taking Loans: Taking loans is also one of the common they believe they are unskilled and unable to migrate for coping mechanisms of the hazard-affected people. In earning money. Men who cannot leave their houses and the drought prone hotspot, few households are not go for work elsewhere usually stay idle or help the indebted to any bank or NGOs because when they women to make handicrafts (mats). In the waterlogged cannot make profits from a single season, they have to hotspot, whenever there is a working man in the family, take loans to buy inputs for the next season. In the he migrates to other places in search of work. They cyclone prone hotspot, local NGOs provide loans for work in brick fields or other's agricultural lands, and live handicrafts, raising poultry, livestock, vegetable or away from their houses for 15 to 30 days. Their food is homestead gardening. When repaying loans, females sent from their homes to their working places. One tend to be more serious compare to males. However person carries food for 30 people by bicycle. During they gather the money--sometimes by borrowing from October/November (Kartik), they sow seeds of Boro friends or relatives--the women repay the loans as crops, cut soil in crop fields and work in brick fields soon as possible. But in the river flood prone hotspot, also. In March­May (Choitro, Boishak) they harvest the people cannot get loans because they do have any Boro crops from the fields. In the drought prone documents to provide as security; also, the interest rate hotspot, migration numbers are low compared to other is very high. People in the waterlogged hotspot said villages, because people do not want to leave their that they do not have to show any proof while taking homes for work. Sometimes people go to nearby brick loans but they usually avoid it because they know they kilns or other agricultural land in adjacent villages to cannot repay. Similarly, the villagers of the flash flood work as day laborers. Women never leave their homes prone hotspot are reluctant to take loans, but they do for work. Most men in the cyclone prone hotspot borrow money from relatives and neighbors. They buy migrate to other villages to work as day laborers. They goods in installments from the shops. Some household mainly go to other districts of greater Khulna, Barisal, heads took loans from non-governmental organiza- or even to Dhaka, while their families stay in the village. tions like LGED, CNRS, and IRA for repairing their houses. Interpretation of signals: In the cyclone prone hotspot, people's survival is completely dependent on the access Selling livestock products or assets: Poor people have very to immediate warning facilities and its adequate inter- few assets to sell, other than livestock products such as pretation. Volunteers of Red Crescent wave flags and milk and eggs. During hazards, some people increase announce through miking after signal 3. But during sales of these products to get money to purchase other cyclone Sidr there was a misinterpretation of signal 10, necessities, while others reduce their sales and keep which led to huge casualties. After Sidr, Muslim-Aid more for household consumption. In the drought prone 54 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h hotspot, people often sell their cows to get enough Temporary migration is most frequent for the working money to meet household expenses. In the water-logged member of the hazard-affected households in the eight hotspot, people sold trees that were about to rot away in hotspots areas. About 36 percent (Table­9) of house- the water. In salinity and cyclone prone hotspots, people holds of the surveyed areas depend on temporal migra- also sometimes sell their lands to earn money or tion (rural and urban) to adapt with the natural hazards. because they know they cannot afford to desalinize They mainly migrate for getting working opportunities. their agricultural lands. In the hazard prone areas about one-third said they try to store food and drinking water, which they can use after the natural hazards. Livestock is the second most valuable asset, after land, for the farmers of rural Bangladesh, so they always try to take care of it. In the Table 11. aDaPTaTIon sTRaTeGIes hotspots areas people (24 percent) raised platform for of The suRVeYeD householDs WhIle their livestock as an adaptation measure for climatic faCe hazaRDs hazards. House repairing and rebuilding (39 percent) also are adaptation practices and options. In the cyclone Percentage of Adaptation strategies households prone south hotspots, after cyclone Sidr and Ila, the crop selection (saline/drought/flood tolerant) 7 people are still struggling to repair their houses, and Adapt planting dates 11 they want external assistance to do that. Adapt cropping densities 1 K eY C o nC l u sI o n s fR o M f Ie lD W oR K Adapt fertilizer / pesticide application 7 Adapt tillage practices / ploughing techniques 2 livelihoods and Climate Change adaptation change the pastoral system 1 change the herd composition 1 Existing Adaptation Practices seed storage facilities 9 Build dwarf embankment around field 5 Permanent Migration: Permanent migration from the Use water harvesting techniques 9 hazard prone area seems to be the only solution when temporal migration to urban areas 10 people lose everything due to hazards and have no hope temporal migration to other rural areas 27 of any livelihood opportunity in that area. But this is a permanent migration 3 big decision and involves high costs, so it cannot be non timber forest product commercialization 1 taken by many people. Moreover, even in very hostile home garden agriculture 10 conditions, people are reluctant to leave the land of their increase market sales 3 ancestors and move to an unknown place. In the salinity handicrafts 14 prone hotspot, riverbank erosion caused more than 40 start fisheries / poultry 6 households, mostly fishermen, to move to the neighbor- Reduce expenses by changing consumption 17 ing village. After cyclone Aila, about five-to-six house- draw down on livestock surpluses or saving 8 holds, who were living outside the embankment, moved Restore and preserve homestead forest to 7 to the hilly areas of the south-east (Rangamati and reduce erosion Bandarban) where they have bought lands and settled. soil erosion prevention 1 There they earn money by felling trees or working in the food storage (dry food, safe water etc.) 33 saw mills. In the river flood prone hotspot, where river- construction of storage areas 17 bank erosion is severe, the number of households in the preservation of fuel wood 28 village dropped from 1,500 to 300 in the last 20 years. Raised platform for livestock / cooking 24 At least 150 households migrated because of severe river Raised houses to prepare for season change 20 erosion in 2007. Similarly, in the cyclone prone hotspot, Repair house to prepare for seasons change 19 people mentioned that some of their relatives have Access and interpretation of warning signals 4 migrated to Dhaka, Khulna, Patuakhali, or Barisal as sell assets 11 they had lost everything in prolonged river erosion and d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 55 unpredictable recent cyclones. Some of these migrated Changing crop varieties and cropping pattern: In areas, people are working as wage-laborers, garments workers, where agriculture is still possible, people are trying to rickshaw pullers, or van-drivers. In the tidal flood and change their crop varieties so that the plants can adapt waterlogged prone hotspots, very few people can afford to the water shortage or saline conditions. In the tidal to migrate permanently to cities and other villages flood prone hotspot, farmers prefer cultivating Boro because of the cost. Only the rich people have managed crops in winter rather than growing Aus and Aman in to leave the village and settle down in the town. summer and monsoon, as the main hazards occur during these seasons. However since Boro cultivation is Shift or diversify livelihood options: As discussed in section costly because of its requirement for inputs like irriga- 4, climate change-related hazards have huge impacts on tion, fertilizer, etc., some of the small farmers still like people's livelihoods, especially for those who are involved to cultivate Aman rice. Some of the farmers used to in agriculture or fishing. As these sectors are highly grow watermelon and gourds in their fields due to the depended on nature, they are becoming very unreliable aridity of the soil. In the drought prone hotspot, replac- and so people are trying to explore other livelihood ing traditional hybrid Boro varieties by Parija and Irri- options for survival. In the salinity prone hotspot, where 29 helped farmers cope with drought. According to agriculture is becoming unsuitable due to increasing them, these varieties mature one month earlier and so salinity, members of the younger generation do not want the farmers can avoid the water- stressed conditions to follow the traditional occupations of their ancestors which arise during March­May. and so are migrating to other places for wood-related work, rickshaw pulling, day labor, etc. The same is true Adapt fertilizer and pesticide applications: In the salinity in the river flood prone area, where in the last 10 years, prone hotspot, farmers wait for some months or years more and more people are getting involved in carpentry for the salinity to decrease from the agricultural land. work, small businesses, or migrating to work in garment They apply sugar and gypsum fertilizer to decrease factories. In the flash flood prone hotspot, women make salinity and use tobacco and cow dung as pesticides. bamboo mats (pati) throughout the year to sell at the Similarly, in the tidal flood prone area, most of the local markets. Even though the villagers are prohibited lands are not suitable for cultivation due to salinity and to fish by their Hindu caste system, they have now aridity. But the peasants are putting fertilizer and started fishing due to scarcity of food. Similarly, in the manure there. They usually use gypsum and potash to waterlogged hotspot, people are now making fishing reduce the salinity. They are also growing early matur- traps (charons) as one of their alternate sources of ing varieties of vegetable in addition to seasonal crops. income. The majority of the people have also shifted In the river flood prone hotspot, when any land emerges their occupations from agriculture to fisheries because of from the flood waters, it needs to be prepared for agri- this waterlogging. While a few better-off people who culture by plowing it. As the soil is highly sandy in the possess their own ponds can grow fish, others catch fish charlands, people initially need to make it suitable for in common property resources such as beels. In the tidal growing crops. The marginal farmers in the drought flood prone area, salinity has created new livelihood prone area have been cropping for generations and do opportunities for some people who are now involved in everything based on trial and error. None have any shrimp cultivation and salt production. In the cyclone proper education or training. When Boro crops are prone hotspot, river bank erosion and restricted entry to infected by pests in winter, they apply more and more Sundarbans are also compelling people to change their pesticides to kill the insects. The amount of fertilizers occupations gradually. Farmers are becoming shop-keep- and pesticides required is increasing day by day. ers, small businessmen, or shrimp cultivators. All of them have access to community ponds and the river, and Repair or rebuild houses: In villages most houses are are so taking up fishing as their main occupation. kacha which are easily destroyed after any cyclone or Literate females are also interested to make handicrafts flood and so need to be repaired or rebuilt. In the in their leisure time, after the household chores. A few salinity prone hotspot, the better-off people in the of them already started this by borrowing capital from village often raise their houses or make them paka cooperative societies. after a sudden disaster. They also put fences around 56 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h the house and make the house stronger by supporting home, the fuel woods are tied in a bundle and put up on it with more bamboo poles. For protecting yards and a raised ceiling inside the house. residential land, people in the flash flood prone hotspot build fences around the edge of their residen- Start homestead gardening: In most places, women try to tial lands using bamboo and murta. In order to prevent grow some trees or vegetables in their yards to provide water from entering their houses, people in the water- food as well as prevent soil erosion. In the river flood logged hotspot are trying to raise their houses by mud prone hotspot, some people plant trees like bamboo, and bricks. For this they have to purchase mud from kolmi to reduce soil erosion. Similarly, in the flash flood the Bhogodowa River, which makes the process quite prone area, women plant green vegetables in the expensive. Richer people can afford it and those who government lands around the village, but not every are building new homes now are making them higher. household can do this. The villagers in the tidal flood Most people do not have money to repair their exist- prone hotspot have started homestead forestry to reduce ing homes. In the river flood prone area, people also coastal erosion or the effects of cyclones. They have have to repair the damaged parts of the houses after planted mahogany, teak, and coconut trees. Generally, floods. Houses are completely destroyed after cyclones the saplings are available in the nearest nursery. As the in the cyclone prone hotspot, and people become area is also cyclone-prone, people build houses that are completely homeless. As none of them had the capa- not so high and if they can, plant trees on the southern bility to rebuild their houses, an NGO (Muslim Aid) side of their homes. built one room kacha houses for each family. In the drainage congestion prone hotspot, people complained Prepare seed beds: This adaptation practice is unique to that landlords never raise or repair their houses, but the salinity prone hotspot where the farmers get help one of the landlords mentioned that she spent Tk. from the farmers of the adjacent village (Nakna) to 40,000 to raise the floor of her own house with produce seed for their crops. Nakna being at a higher cement. land than Shonatankathi is good for agriculture and seed production. It costs around 500 taka. After the Repair Tube-wells: In some areas, the tube-wells occa- land is ready and free from water and salinity, the seeds sionally go under water, posing problems for people. But are sowed. sometimes raising tube-wells is not possible due to lack of funds. In the river flood prone area, if a villager has The vulnerability of a socio-economic and environmen- to do the work of raising the bed around the TW tal system to climate change is conceptualized as a func- himself with the help of some community men, then tion of a system's exposure to climate change effects and he also has to worry about feeding the laborers at least its adaptive capacity to deal with those effects. The more but he lacks that money to do so. So government needs exposed a system is to a particular climate stimulus, the to help. In the tidal flood prone area, the well-off family greater the system's vulnerability; conversely, the greater raised their tube wells and can drink safe water easily. the adaptive capacity of the system to a given climate Poor people then try to collect drinking water generally event, the lower its vulnerability. The adaptive capacity from tube-wells which are still in order. of a community or household depends on its range of resources, which enable it to moderate potential damages Preserve fuel wood: In most rural areas, people use natu- and cope with consequences of climate change. These ral substances as fuel for cooking. In both drought and assets are human, social, physical, natural, and financial, water-logged hotspots, people use cow dung but in the existing status of which in each hotspot have been different ways. In the former, they make circular disks discussed in section 3. The following table (table 12) by drying cow dung in the sun, and in the latter they outlines the importance of each of these assets in deter- wrap the dung around sticks to make moshal. People mining the adaptive capacity of a community. usually make these in large quantities and store them. In the cyclone prone hotspot, when the weather is good As discussed in section 2, the focus group discussions and the season is dry, the men go to the Sundarbans by involved a self ­assessment exercise in which the partic- boat to collect fuel wood. When these are brought ipants were asked to score the indicators of each of the MaTRIx 2. exIsTInG aDaPTaTIon PRaCTICes Riverbank / Hotspots / cyclone prone / River flood Drainage Flash flood coastal Adaptations salinity prone Tidal flood prone Waterlogging congestion prone Drought prone erosion permanent in salinity prone After cyclone Aila, in river flood villagers have to in drought prone At least 150 migration hotspot, riverbank about 5-6 households, prone hotspot, temporarily live under area, people do households erosion caused more who were living where riverbank the open sky on the not have to leave have than 40 households, outside the erosion is only paved high road their houses due migrated mostly fishermen, to embankment, moved severe, the of the village along to any disasters. because of move to the to the hilly areas of the number of with their livestock or severe river neighboring village. south-east (Rangamati households in move to Union erosion in and Bandarban) where the village council which is 2007. they have bought dropped from further away. lands and settled. 1500 to 300 in the last 20 in tidal flood and in tidal flood and years. water-logging prone water-logging prone hotspots, very few hotspots, very few people can afford to people can afford to migrate permanently migrate permanently to cities and other to cities and other villages as huge cost villages as huge cost is required. only the is required. only the rich people have rich people have managed to leave the managed to leave the village and settle village and settle down down in the town. in the town. shift or As agriculture is in tidal flood prone in the last 10 people are now Women make diversify becoming unsuitable are, salinity has years, more and making fishing traps bamboo mats d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s livelihood due to increasing created new livelihood more people are (charons) as one of (pati) options salinity, young opportunities for some getting involved their alternate sources throughout the generation do not want people who are now in carpentry of income. majority of year to sell at to follow the traditional involved in shrimp works, small the people have also the local occupations of their cultivation and salt businesses and shifted their markets. Even ancestors and so are production. migrating to occupations from though the migrating to other work in garment agricultural works to villagers are places for wood in cyclone prone factories. fisheries because of prohibited to related work, rickshaw hotspot, river bank this water logging. fish by their pulling, day labour etc. erosion and restricted hindu caste entry to sundarbans system, they are also compelling have now people to change their started fishing occupations gradually. due to scarcity farmers are becoming of food. shop-keepers, small businessmen or shrimp cultivators. continued on next page 57 58 MaTRIx 2. exIsTInG aDaPTaTIon PRaCTICes (continued) Riverbank / Hotspots / cyclone prone / River flood Drainage Flash flood coastal Adaptations salinity prone Tidal flood prone Waterlogging congestion prone Drought prone erosion changing in tidal flood prone in drought prone crop varieties hotspot, farmers prefer hotspot, replacing and cropping cultivating Boro crops traditional hybrid pattern in winter rather than Boro varieties by growing Aus and parija and irri-29 Aman in summer and helped them to monsoon, as the main cope with drought. hazards occur during According to them these seasons. these varieties however since Boro mature one month cultivation is costly earlier and so the because of its farmers can avoid requirement of inputs the water- like irrigation, fertilizer stressed , some of the small conditions which farmers still like to arise during cultivate Aman rice. march-may. some of the farmers used to grow water melon and gourds in their field due to the aridity the soil. fertilizer and farmers wait for some most of the lands are When any land the marginal pesticide months or years for not suitable for emerges from farmers in the applications the salinity to decrease cultivation due to the river waters, drought prone from the agricultural salinity and aridity. But it needs to be area have been land. they apply sugar the peasants are prepared for cropping for and gypsum fertilizer putting fertilizer and agriculture by generations and to decrease salinity manure there. they plowing it. As do everything and use tobacco and usually use gypsum the soil is highly based on trial and cow dung as and potash to reduce sandy in the error. none have pesticides the salinity. they are charlands any proper also growing early people initially education or maturing varieties of need to make it training. When vegetable besides to suitable for Boro crops are seasonal crops. growing crops. infected by pests in winter, they apply more and more pesticides to kill the insects. the amount of fertilizers and pesticides required is increasing day by day. continued on next page t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h MaTRIx 2. exIsTInG aDaPTaTIon PRaCTICes (continued) Riverbank / Hotspots / cyclone prone / River flood Drainage Flash flood coastal Adaptations salinity prone Tidal flood prone Waterlogging congestion prone Drought prone erosion Repair or the better-off people houses are completely in river flood in order to prevent people for protecting rebuild in the village often destroyed after prone area, water from entering complained yard and houses raise their houses or cyclones in cyclone people also their houses, people that land residential make them paka after prone hotspot and have to repair in the waterlogged lords never land, people in a sudden disaster. people become the damaged hotspot are trying to raise or the flash flood they also put fences completely homeless. part of the raise their houses by repair their prone hotspot, around the house and As none of them had houses after mud and bricks. houses, but build fences make the house the capability to floods. one of the around the stronger by supporting rebuild their houses, landlords edge of their it with more bamboo an ngo (muslim Aid) mentioned residential poles. built one room kacha that she lands using houses for each spent tk. bamboo and family. 40,000 to murta. raise the floor of her own house with cement. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 59 60 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Table 12. DeTeRMInanTs of aDaPTIVe CaPaCITY Capital asset Rationale Indicator Human Response to climate impacts is enhanced with residents who have: · level of Education · strong skills and ingenuity; and · health status · good physical and mental health · Access to new information · indigenous knowledge/Experience social · fewer people left stranded or without care · social cohesion · networks between communities get the word out and assistance in · social security · people who care about their community will ensure it recovers · friends and Relatives · political connections may enhance community access to assistance · co-operative societies · contact with ngos Physical · the quality of utilities affects severity of impact. · Road networks · Effective communications services guarantee faster response from within · Access to safe Water and without. · Access to Electricity · possession of Equipments · housing Natural · Better quality/higher quantity of affected resources mean greater ability to · Agricultural land withstand climate impacts. · Water Bodies · trees · livestock Financial · greater financial assets mean greater ability to recover from material loss · income · diverse employment opportunities provide more options if climate affects · loans particular type of occupation · savings source: Wall and Marzal, 2004 five capital assets. This tool thus helped to assign a The total score in each hotspot provides a good reflec- quantitative value to the current conditions of each of tion of the current adaptive capacities of the communi- the indicators so that they can easily be compared with ties, although the values should not be used very those of other hotspots. The following table (table 13) strictly. These scores have been obtained through the shows the scores of each of the five assets in all the qualitative judgment of the participants rather than by hotspots. These values have been obtained by calculat- quantitative measurements. Moreover, the scores were ing the average of the scores of all the indicators in assigned by different participants in different hotspots both male and female FGDs in each hotspot. whose judgment depended on their respective perspec- tives. If they had been provided by the same group of Table 13. lIVelIhooD CaPITal asseT sCoRes of hoTsPoTs Livelihood capital assets (Scores out of 5) Hotspots Human Social Physical Natural Financial Total score (Out of 25) drought prone 2.5 2.16 2.33 2.16 2 11.15 salinity prone 2.16 3.33 1.16 1.83 1.67 10.15 cyclone prone 2.33 2.5 1.16 1.5 1 8.49 River flood prone 1.83 3.16 1.83 1.83 1.67 10.32 flash flood prone 2.29 1.67 2 2.4 1.5 9.86 Waterlogged prone 3.33 3.25 2.33 2 1.67 12.58 tidal flood prone 2.2 3.2 2.5 1.83 2.16 11.89 drainage congestion prone 1.9 2.17 1.7 1 1.7 8.47 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 61 respondents in similar socio-economic settings, then Based on these criteria, the eight hotspots have the the values could have been easily compared. For exam- following levels of adaptive capacity (table 15). ple, although the infrastructure in urban area is more improved than in rural areas, the people in the drainage As illustrated by the above table, none of the hotspots congestion prone hotspot assigned one of the lowest have a high adaptive capacity, which is understandable scores to physical capital, perhaps, because they given their very poor asset base which prevents asset compared their conditions to other areas of the city. transformation in times of need. In the tidal flood prone Similarly, although the urban slum dwellers have higher hotspot, the frequency and intensity of cyclones is quite absolute incomes compared to the villagers, they gave a bit lower than in cyclone and salinity prone hotspots, low scores to their incomes, which are low compared to for which the impacts are comparatively less violent and other urban people. On the other hand, the aim of this the community gets time to recover from the shocks. self-assessment exercise was to evaluate the asset base Moreover, people in the tidal flood prone area have a in the context of the individual hotspots. Thus, in wider range of livelihood opportunities because it is the analyzing the adaptive capacities, we have based our most popular tourist spot in the country. Based on this tourism, shops, businesses, and hotels provide opportuni- ties for people to shift from their natural resource-based livelihoods. The Bay of Bengal is also very near, and about 80 percent of the people are involved in fishing. Table 14. CRITeRIa foR InTeRPReTInG lIVelIhooD CaPITal asseT sCoRes Although the cyclone and salinity prone hotspots are also part of two coastal districts, they have less access to the Total score (out of 25) Adaptive capacity sea because of the large expanse of mangrove forest in 20­25 very high between. In the tidal flood prone area, wealthy business- 15­20 high men carry out shrimp cultivation and salt production, 10­15 medium hiring local people as laborers. As a result, migration for 05­10 low work is less prominent in this area because even if people 0­05 very low cannot cultivate crops or have fishing trawlers of their own, they can work as laborers. This is not the case for the cyclone or salinity prone hotspots, where frequent cyclones and saline water intrusion destroy their assets to judgment both on the qualitative data as well as the such an extent that their adaptive capacity is diminished. above scores. To interpret the above scores, the follow- In these areas, adaptive capacity is low because the ing criteria have been used (table 14). impacts of hazards are so grave that people not only lose their income options but also their houses, livestock, and everything else. People in these areas also have low levels of education or skills, so working as day laborers remains Table 15. aDaPTIVe CaPaCITY sTaTus the only option when crops and fisheries are damaged. of hoTsPoTs But as there are no big businesses or farms in the area, little work is available. Moreover, they do not have much Hotspots Adaptive capacity access to loans, preventing them from investing in new drought prone medium sectors. Supply of utilities such as water and electricity is salinity prone low also poor, along with damaged infrastructure such as cyclone prone low roads and bridges. NGOs play an important role in post- River flood prone low disaster periods in the cyclone prone hotspot, but this flash flood prone low type of external support is absent in the salinity prone Waterlogged prone medium hotspot. In the latter, there are no cyclone shelters and no tidal flood prone medium one delivers warning signals, distributes relief materials drainage congestion prone low or reconstructs broken roads or houses. However, NGOs 62 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h have long operated in the cyclone prone area in terms of opportunities. The village has schools, mosques, shops, rebuilding houses, providing radios, and delivering and basic institutions such as banks, health centers, warnings. government offices, and police stations. Moreover, the impacts of the hazards are not as intense as the cyclones In both the river and flash flood prone hotspots, adap- or floods which destroy everything from houses to tive capacities are also low because residents can do little crops. Even if crop yields are reduced, people's daily to cope with the hazards. Like all other rural people, lives are not disrupted. their incomes are mainly dependent on agricultural, but frequent floods destroy their crops and houses. According to the scores, adaptive capacity is least in the Moreover, river erosion is diminishing their lands, urban drainage congestion prone hotspot, because making their lives more precarious and uncertain. people have few options to diversify their livelihoods. Neither villages has health centers or markets, and all People who currently live in slums have already been goods and services must be purchased from the nearest pushed from rural to urban area due to poverty and lack upazilla town. Due to absence of road communication, of resources. Here, they have no natural capital such as boats serve as the only mode of transportation, making land or water bodies which they can use to make a the villages quite isolated from the main towns. NGO living. Moreover, their education and skills are very low activities started only recently in these areas and are still compared to other urban people, so they have little hope insufficient to meet their needs. Loans are of little use if of moving up the income ladder. There are a few NGO people do not have the ability to repay. People in these schools but these are quite expensive, and parents prefer areas have to stay idle for months. Education is also very to make their children work to earn some extra money poor, so there is little hope that the next generations can for the family. Social relations and health and hygienic explore other livelihood options. Although people in conditions are also very poor. Although they live in both these areas live amidst water half of the time, fish- rented houses, they cannot move to other areas free ing activity is insignificant. In the flash flood prone area, from drainage congestion because house rents are people are prohibited to fish in the Tanguar Haor due to higher in better places. the Ramsar Convention and moreover, their religion also does not allow their particular caste to fish. In most e n h a nC In G fu Tu Re a Da P T I Ve other hotspots people are moving from agriculture to C aPa C I T Ie s : fishing, but people in these two flood prone areas still seem to follow their traditional occupations. In order to increase the adaptive capacities of each of the communities, it is essential that their asset base is In the waterlogged prone hotspot, people are rich in increased to an adequate level. During the self-assess- human capital and they have better education and skills ment exercise, the participants pinpointed some of the than people in the other areas. People are trying to major actions that should be taken by the government, diversify their livelihood options and move toward fish- NGOs, or the community itself to enhance their current ing, businesses, or services. They have better roads, conditions. Regardless of the hazard, some future access to safe water and electricity, unlike the other suggestions were common in all hotspots, while some areas. Moreover, the presence of markets near the village were only specific to that particular area. Some recom- allows people to sell the fish they catch, the handicrafts mended actions, such as building embankments, are they make and the livestock products they get. Social meant to reduce the exposure of the community to capital is also good in the area, and the school headmas- hazards, while others, such as increasing livelihood ter uses his links to fight for the problems of this village. opportunities, are meant to enable the people to cope Their adaptive capacity is medium, a little better than better with the hazard situation. the other hotspots. A similar situation prevails in the drought prone hotspot, where although people lack 1. Construction or repair of embankments: Although good human capital, their natural and physical assets are embankments already exist in certain places, they average. The proximity of the village to the upazilla have either been damaged or are not functioning town ensures that people have access to services and properly. In the tidal flood prone hotspot, the d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 63 height of the embankment needs to be raised so 3. Provide more employment opportunities: People in all that high tidal waves cannot enter the village. In areas are willing to shift from natural resource- the flash flood prone hotspot, a submergible based livelihood to the manufacturing or service embankment exists but during excessive floods, sectors. But in order to do so there needs to be the water that enters cannot drain out in time; more industries, businesses, schools, and NGOs in hence, the villagers suggested the need for a better the hotspots where people can work, thus avoiding embankment with sluice gates. The embankment the need for migration. In the river flood prone in the salinity prone hotspot has been breached at hotspot, villagers envisioned that dairy farms have many places, requiring immediate repairs to stop good potential for employment. There needs to be inflow of saline water. It should also be monitored more opportunities for graduates so that they can that people do not breach the embankment inten- find jobs after completing their education. People tionally to promote shrimp farming. A similar can also be trained to explore new livelihood condition exists in the waterlogged hotspot, where opportunities and improve their existing ones. In the embankments have been cut in places inten- the water-logged and flash flood prone areas, tionally by the authorities so that sedimentation where people are skilled in making handicrafts, occurs on the lands adjacent to the rivers. But as there needs to be greater market access so that described in section 4, this has brought about per- people can sell their products not only to the local manent waterlogging in the area for the last five markets but also to urban areas. In the drainage years. The only way to improve the situation is to congestion prone area, women mentioned that they fix the embankment again or shift the cut places should also be given the chance to work so that to another area. In the drainage congestion prone they can contribute to supporting their families. hotspot, the slum dwellers suggested that a box 4. Construction of roads and bridges: Road communica- culvert needs to be installed to pass the water into tion leads to development of an area in the long the channels. However, in some places, there are run. In some places, such as the river and flash no embankments at present, but people high- flood prone areas, road communication is non-exis- lighted the need for these structures to prevent tent and people have to use boats to travel long dis- river bank erosion. In both cyclone and river flood tances to reach their nearest upazilla towns. Road prone hotspots, people mentioned that an embank- construction is not possible in the former area, as it ment needs to be constructed along Baleswar and is a char land which shifts continuously. However, Jamuna rivers, respectively. in the latter, construction of concrete roads will 2. Better education facilities: In almost all hotspots, the allow the villagers to use them in the dry season. In children are deprived of proper education facilities the salinity prone hotspot, cyclones have damaged either due to lack of schools in the village or high all the roads and bridges which need to be repaired cost. In the river and flash flood prone areas, there immediately. Farmers in the drought prone area are currently no government schools and children also mentioned the need for a bridge over go to the only NGO-operated school in the area. Punarbhaba River, which would allow them to More government primary and secondary schools transport their harvested paddy easily. In the water- need to be built in these areas. In the drought and logged hotspot, the internal roads need to be lay- drainage congestion prone hotspots, people men- ered with bricks so that they do not become muddy tioned the need for free primary schools which and slippery. Better road networks will lead to would provide books as well as uniforms. In the faster communication, lower transportation costs, former, people also mentioned the idea of night and more livelihood opportunities. In the cyclone school for secondary education so that these chil- prone hotspot, this will enable people to move to dren can work with their parents during the day shelters quickly, and in the waterlogged and drain- and study at night. As cyclone and tidal flood age congestion prone hotspots, the roads will also prone areas are frequently affected by cyclones, be able to provide shelter when houses are flooded. using a primary school as a cyclone shelter would 5. Good local governance: If the local government is be the best option. devoted to the development of the area and the 64 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h betterment of the people, then more investments emergency purposes. Moreover, the shelters should will be made in the area by the central government have safe water supply and sanitation facilities. and NGOs. In the river and flash flood prone hot- Separate rooms for women and provision for spots, people complained that they have always bringing in livestock will also help people greatly. been neglected by the government, and whatever In the salinity and tidal flood prone hotspots, development have taken place are due to the more cyclone shelters need to be constructed that actions of various NGOs. In the salinity prone could also be used as school during normal times. hotspot, the elected chairman is from Jamat-e- 9. More access to common property resources: Common Islam Party, so none of the relief materials come to property resources such as forests and water bodies that village after cyclones; rather they are distrib- often supply raw materials for people. But in the uted in the adjacent village, where the chairman is flash flood prone hotspot, the Ramsar Convention from the current Awami League government. has prohibited fishing in the Tanguar Haor and Villagers in the waterlogged hotspot also com- prevented villagers from even collecting twigs. plained that the government is not concerned Similar complaints were heard from people in the about their vulnerable conditions and is doing cyclone prone hotspot, where villagers are prohib- nothing to improve their situations. ited to enter the Sundarban mangrove forest for 6. River dredging: River dredging will solve the prob- fishing, fuelwood or honey collection. They are lems of floods and waterlogging as the river will be harassed by pirates who fine them for entering the able to hold more water during the monsoon. In forest areas. the river, flash flood and waterlogged hotspots, the 10. Electricity supply: Electricity can improve the living river beds have risen due to sedimentation and cut- standards of people and also help in their income ting off distributaries. People in these areas men- generating activities. People in the waterlogged tioned that the Jamuna, Surma and Bhogodawa and flash flood prone hotspots, mentioned that rivers need to be dredged. In the drought prone electricity is necessary at night so that the children area, villagers also highlighted the need for dredg- can study and they can make handicrafts and per- ing the Punarbhaba River so that it does not form other household activities. In the drought become dry during winter; this would minimize prone hotspot, farmers said electricity will allow the impacts of drought. them to use shallow machines for irrigation and 7. Afforestation: Planting trees is necessary for dif- thus avoid the high fuel cost. In all hotspots, elec- ferent purposes in different areas. In the cyclone tricity will allow people to watch TV or charge and tidal flood prone hotspots, a coastal green- mobile phones so that they can get entertainment belt can greatly reduce the wind speed and mini- and also learn about the changing world. mize the impacts of cyclones. On the other hand, 11. Access to safe water supply: Rural people in in the river and flash flood prone hotspots, affor- Bangladesh are highly dependent on groundwater estation along the river banks can prevent bank for drinking and cooking purposes and on surface erosion by holding the soil. Tree plantation is water for bathing and washing. But in the drought also needed in the hilly areas to reduce soil ero- prone area, the groundwater level is decreasing sion and runoff from the hills after heavy show- day-by-day, and so people need a central piped ers. In the drought prone hotspot, more trees will water supply. Although piped water supply is make the environment cooler and reduce loss of already in place in that hotspot, its coverage needs soil moisture. to be increased. In the flood prone areas, where 8. Cyclone shelters: Although cyclone shelters are pres- tube-wells become flooded every year, other safe ent in the cyclone prone hotspot, they are not ade- water sources need to be ensured. In the cyclone quate to meet the needs of the people. The shelters and salinity prone hotspots, surface water is are usually far away and do not have enough space becoming unusable due to salinity, and so water to accommodate everyone. Thus, people men- purification or treatment systems need to be tioned the need for mini cyclone shelters after installed. In the former, use of Pond Sand Filters every 10­12 houses which can be used for has already started but is still not adequate. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 65 12. Development of warning systems: In the case of some and roads and river dredging require government initia- hazards such as cyclones, timely warning is essen- tive, especially the involvement of the Ministry of Water tial and people should also be trained to interpret Resources. signals accurately. In the cyclone prone hotspot, volunteers of Red Crescent deliver the signals, Education and employment facilities can be developed whereas in salinity prone area there is no warning both by the public and private sector. NGOs can set system at all. Some women mentioned that there up schools and private entrepreneurs can set up facto- should be female volunteers to help them. People ries, but these need to be monitored by government need to be trained about the steps they should take policies so the poor are benefitted. Although NGOs when different signals are disseminated. False can help supply electricity and water at small scale by warnings should be avoided, otherwise the people setting up solar panels or tube-wells, large centralized lose trust in the reliability of the signals. water and grid electricity supply should be ensured by the government. Through donor-funded projects, sharing Responsibility: NGOs can also promote tree plantation in relevant areas. Weather forecasts are made by Bangladesh Most of the actions suggested in section 6 are the Meteorological Department, and warnings are dissem- responsibility of the government and its relevant minis- inated by government as well as NGO volunteers. tries; however, NGOs and international donor agencies Training of these volunteers is also needed to make can also play a major role. A huge amount of funding is the system more effective. Community people have required for constructing the infrastructures; this could little role to play in enhancing their adaptive capacities be provided from government funds as well as by donor because they have few assets. If they are empowered agencies who can channel their aid through the govern- by the government or NGOs, they can play a signifi- ment or local NGOs. Construction of embankments cant role. 66 5. PaRTICIPaToRY sCenaRIo Identify options for adaptation to the impacts of climate change that also reflect participant's preferences; DeVeloPMenT (PsD) WoRKshoP ResulTs · Expose relationships, including synergies and trade- offs, between adaptation actions that need to be undertaken at national, regional and local levels Participatory Scenario Development (PSD) is a tool · Develop an adaptation pathway that is relevant for for scanning the future in a rigorous, creative, and the workshop participants in the context of their policy-relevant way to explore the effects of different desired future development priorities; and actions for future challenges through participation of · Identify potential sectoral and institutional adapta- multiple stakeholders. Given the complex and uncertain tion options to cope with or alleviate the impacts of climate futures which require varied forms of analysis climate change and socio-economic changes; and communication at multiple scales, these workshops aim to help local and national actors explore different Methods: Process & Participants climate futures and engage in a structured debates around development priorities and relevant adaptation The workshop followed a step-by-step process. Each responses at the local and national levels. new session was preceded by a presentation by the facili- tator in order to put the exercise into perspective. Before Bangladesh is one of the six developing countries where each exercise began, an explanation was demonstrated to the EACC study is being conducted, and Bangladesh the participants after which, they carried out the task Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) is the organi- with supervision from the BIDS facilitation team. zation responsible for carrying out the Social compo- nent of the study. For this purpose, national, local, and The PSD workshops took half a day in each of the regional level PSD workshops were carried out areas. It started by outlining the key elements of the throughout six hotspots; and victims, professionals and workshop agenda, followed by introducing the objec- experts from various sectors were invited to these events tives of the workshop to the participants. The purpose (see List of Participants in the Appendix). was to acquaint the participants with what the PSD workshop sought to achieve. Exercises included: devel- P s D Wo RK shoP s: DesIG n oVe RV I eW oping a vision of the future, subjecting the vision to climate and socio-economic impacts, identifying adap- objectives of the PsD Workshop: tation options, spelling out adaptation pathways, and establishing short-, medium- and long-term priorities. The objectives were drawn from the National PSD workshop conducted in June 2009 in Dhaka, At the national level workshops, the country was Bangladesh. They were to: divided into four broad regions: Northwest, Northeast, d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 67 fIGuRe 6. PsD WoRKshoP sITes LOCAL WORKSHOP NATIONAL (KAZIPUR, WORKSHOP 1 & 2 SIRAJGANJ) (DHAKA) LOCAL WORKSHOP LOCAL WORKSHOP (MOHAMMADPUR, (SHORONKHOLA, DHAKA) BAGERHAT) REGIONAL WORKSHOP (KHULNA) LEGEND LOCAL WORKSHOP Airport (COX'S BAZAR) Seaport Division Boundary Capital City District Boundary Divisional City Highways International Boundary Railways Coastal, and Urban. Each of the regions was differenti- chairman, members, school teachers, journalists, and ated by its geography, climatic scenarios, economic local elites formed the civil-society group (1). Women opportunities, and potential threats from climate of different age groups represented the gender group change. Residents, professionals, and experts from vari- (2). Their main concern were women oriented vision in ous sectors were invited to participate based on the near future, affect on health, security during disasters, workshop design and goals. improvement of women education and women empow- erment. Farmers, fishermen, natural resource-oriented After the introductory session, the participants were livelihood earners, and small businessman comprised divided into groups based on their interest and knowl- the professional group (3). They mainly emphasized edge of the issues to be explored. Each group was how natural hazards affect their livelihood options, constituted such that it represented the diverse stake- changes in their occupations, and probable adaptation holders who were in attendance. At the local and techniques to overcome the curse of occurring hazards. regional level three groups were formed: gender, profes- sional, and civil society. Each of the groups was asked to The facilitator introduced the vision exercise. represent their area from their perspective. Local Participants were asked to vision along the 68 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h fIGuRe 7. PsD WoRKshoP PRoCess CYCle Reporting back from Introduction and groups and discuss context / Setting Spell out Engagement and Develop vision adaption pathways participation of the future Challenge vision Identify adaptation / with boundary Coping options issues identified, including but not limited to, energy, brutality of these disasters was showed visually. At the education, health, land management, local governance, end, a few adaptation techniques, such as modern agri- food security, and social cohesion. This exercise ended culture practices, fishing, floating vegetable gardening, with presentations from the various groups. raising poultry, and homestead gardening, were suggested. This provided the context for the groups to We introduced the first presentation on climate change continue their work and identify impacts and corre- impact and vulnerability with reference to disaster prone sponding probable adaptation options that will mitigate areas of Bangladesh at national, local and regional level the adverse impacts of climate change focusing on workshops. These presentations were meant to charac- vulnerable groups. terize the climate change discussions within the context of current development challenges in the zones. This One thing that came out with this exercise was that presentation was followed by group work, where partici- while some of the coping options can be classified as pants subjected their visions to climate change short-term actions, and hence unsustainable, others can scenarios. be classified as sustainable because they extend into the long term. Clusters of adaptation options were further At the local and regional level workshops after the first developed into adaptation pathways prioritized into exercise (vision), we continued with a video documen- short (five years), medium (about 10 years) and long tary based on potential climate change impacts and term (30 years and more). This final exercise took the adaptation strategy in Bangladesh. The documentary is participants into plenary session, where each group based on different ongoing natural and man-made reported back on its findings, thus concluding the hazards such as drought, floods, river erosion, salinity workshop. intrusion, tidal surge, and cyclones. The cruelty and d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 69 oV e RVI e W of ResulT s fRoM loC a l a nD facilities, social conflicts regarding equitable distribution n aTI onal Wo RKshoP s of relief, poor carrying capacity without basic amenities of cyclone and flood shelters. Whereas major issues like Prevailing climatic conditions and people's vision environment management, water resource management, 2050 economic and gender issues, also came up in all national, local, and regional workshops. All the hazards in Bangladesh such as cyclones, drought, salinity, flash flood, waterlogging, river flood, However, the local workshop at the drainage congestion river erosion, and drainage congestion result in loss of area raised issues that were divergent from other local life, economic loss, and damage to communications workshops. For instance, agricultural and fishing issues and infrastructure. A wide range of issues were were absent at drainage congestion area's workshop, explored by the participants. After the group forma- whereas they were prioritized in other local workshops. tion, all participants were encouraged to discuss the Establishment of day-care centers in each and every issues by relating both the past and the present so as to workplace, price reduction of basic goods, and perma- give a vivid picture of the prevailing climatic nent housing facilities with adequate water supply and conditions. sanitation facilities issues were brought up by urban participants in their workshop. The next activity was aimed at developing ideal vision of the future. In order to remain focus both the facilita- Climate change Impacts, existing adaptation tor and the participants identified some of the key practices and future options elements of vision namely: long term, positive outlook, and an ideal situation. Again, to set the exercise into Following the vision exercise the participants subjected context, participants were presented with a number of the visions to possible climate and socio-economic issues (i.e., food security, land management, water impacts that will make achieving the visions difficult. resources, and health) around which they should formu- For instance, at the national level workshops sustainable late their visions. However participants were also livelihood options, water resource management, protec- encouraged to explore beyond the issues presented to tion and perfect utilization of natural resources, them and also vision in the long term (up to 2050). construction of adequate infrastructures, and planned urbanization were identified as possible future adapta- Other issues that came up during the vision exercise tion options to mitigate natural as well as anthropogenic included: temporary or permanent migration, electricity impacts throughout Bangladesh. MaTRIx 3. PReVaIlInG ClIMaTIC ConDITIons: Local Regional Mohammadpur Sarankhola Kazipur (Drainage Cox's bazaar 1st National 2nd National (Cyclone) (Riverflood) congestion) (Tidal flood) Khulna cyclone, cyclone, Unpredictable loss of land due drainage cyclone and tidal Unexpected drought, salinity, drought, cyclone or tidal to annual flood, congestion flooding hamper cyclone affects flash flood, salinity, flash surge resulting followed by severe created by mainly economic agriculture water logging, flood, water massive river erosion unplanned sectors such as sector & shrimp river flood, river logging, river casualties; disrupts urbanization tourism, culture and thus erosion-- flood, river agricultural livelihoods & leads to agriculture, salt leads to leading to life erosion-- loss, damage cause temporal/ improper and fisheries. migration for loss, economic leading to infrastructure & permanent housing, water Along with these better income loss, casualties, communication migration. & sanitation affect scope. communication socio- system. facilities, health communication & infrastructure economic and problems, and system and damage. physical loss. social conflicts. health. 70 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h MaTRIx 4. VIsIon 2050 Mohammadpur Cox's Bazaar (Tidal flood ) 2nd National (River flood) 1st National congestion) Sarankhola (Drainage (Cyclone) Sector Kazipur Khulna land zoning; no green Belt free of river permanent make a green protection of river erosion; erosion within solution of belt using sundarban environmental management promote 2050. drainage system. indigenous ecotourism & species of forestry. proper waste plants. management. transform cox's Bazaar into an international quality tourism centre. take steps to prevent tree felling and hill cutting. Ensure water installation of Availability of canal dredging. Extraction of improve navigation Water resource management conservation & more psf & pure drinking salt facilities through flood security. Rainwater water. river dredging. harvesting water from deep system. tube well in order to get fresh drinking water. Ensure greater strong and Embankment Adequate housing construction of mongla port as the Infrastructure & better road durable for preventing facilities for slum- embankments south Asian river network. embankment & river erosion. dwellers. and cyclone port. sufficient number shelters. of cyclone shelters. Redistribution of Encourage Absence of Employment Ensure income Ensuring livelihood income handicrafts & unemployment. opportunities. scopes for by protecting 5 livelihood Income & opportunities. poultry as fishermen basic needs alternate price reduction of during pick granted by livelihood basic goods. season of constitution. strategies. cyclone occurrence. full free women 100% educated Establishment special education 100% literacy. Education & human education up to people. of educational and training for resources ssc. institution i abnormal people. government development. education education n char areas. Adequate number centre. of government higher education centre. Education for aged men and women. improved green innovation of salt Abundance of N/A innovation of Ensure food Agriculture agricultural tolerant & high fertilizer & salt tolerant & security, reducing sector. yield crop pesticide. high yield crop crop loss, crop varieties. varieties. insurance for marginal farmers. continued on next page d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 71 MaTRIx 4. VIsIon 2050 (continued) Mohammadpur Cox's Bazaar (Tidal flood ) 2nd National (River flood) 1st National congestion) Sarankhola (Drainage (Cyclone) Sector Kazipur Khulna Well equipped sustainable Every N/A preserve fish storm resistant engine boats. shrimp culture. fishermen with industry by fishing boats, Fisheries own net and sustainable conflict resolution boat. between shrimp practices cultivation & agriculture. separate rooms improvement of health facilities Ensure proper 100% women Women in cyclone women education. for pregnant nutrition for will be employed empowerment, gender issues shelter or women by pregnant women by 2050 separate areas for women. 2050. and children. women in shelters. Establishment of day-care centre in each and every working area. At local level workshops, such as in cyclone prone a Da P TaT I o n PaTh WaY s areas, massive casualties, drinking water scarcity, income loss, salinity intrusion, and gender problems Issues and adaptation Pathways: were raised as impacts. To overcome these prevailing climatic conditions participants identified water Adaptation pathways were developed by emphasizing harvesting and changing their occupations as existing several issues based on the time horizon. Some issues such adaptation techniques. They also suggested construc- as policy and governance, social policy, and natural tion of embankments, mini cyclone shelters, and resource management are long term projects, while devel- improvement of early warning systems as suitable opments regarding information, services, alternative future options for minimizing losses. On the other income generation, education and training can be achieved hand, participants from river flood areas suggested during short or mid-term. For instance, at the national alternative livelihood options, construction of embank- level workshop participants raised the issue that land ments, development of communication systems, and reformation, decentralization of administration, academic establishment of clustered village as probable future and institutional authorities, or innovation of climatic adaptations. Moreover, issues such as strict enforce- hazard tolerant crop varieties (salt tolerant for coastal ment of rules and regulations, establishment of day- areas, early maturing verities for flash flood areas and less care centers and prohibition of polygamy, were also water demanding verities for drought prone parts) are raised in the urban workshop at local level. expensive and time-consuming and involve policy consid- erations. Whereas, issues regarding river dredging, At the regional level workshop in Khulna representing construction of embankments, green belts, and better the cyclone and salinity prone areas of Bangladesh, communication systems at local and regional level work- improvement of early warning systems to minimize shops involves government husbandry. On the other hand, losses, innovation of salt-tolerant agricultural practices at local level workshops participants gave more emphasis to reduce food insecurity, and planned industrialization to social policies such as restriction of early marriage and to ensure income scopes were discussed as adaptation polygamy, empowering women, female education, ensuring options. social security, establishing clustered villages, etc. 72 MaTRIx 5. ClIMaTe IMPaCTs anD aDaPTaTIon MeasuRes Areas Impacts Adaptation measures · income loss · sustainable livelihood options · displacement of mass people · Early warning systems; multipurpose shelters. · increased frequency and intensity of hazards · protection of mangrove forest. · conflict over resource use · innovation of climate resilient crops. · crop loss · Rainwater harvesting. · Biodiversity loss · construction of effective infrastructures. 1st National · Water scarcity. · damage to existing roads and communication system · loss of crop production. · green belt · Unemployment. · inclusion of chapters on climate change in text-books. · social insecurity. · River management and dredging. · Water scarcity · construction of reservoirs. · disruption of education system. · change schools calendar by following hazards occurrence period. · migration towards capital city. · following building codes. 2nd National · income loss. · Alternative livelihood options · loss of agricultural land due to river erosion · construction of durable embankment. · migration · green-belt · scarcity of drinking water · installation of adequate number of psf & rainwater harvesting system. · salinity intrusion · plumbing of saline water or application of lime. (cyclone) · occurrence of accidents of women while moving to shelters. · construction of mini cyclone shelters with basic facilities. sarankhola · inadequate carrying capacity of cyclone-shelters. · improvement of warning system and make people aware about its meaning. · massive casualties. · loss of cropland due to river bank erosion. · plantation along the river bank. · Unemployment · River dredging. · migration · construction of embankment. · scarcity of drinking water · Alternative livelihood options · health problems · installation of tube-wells on high level. · disruption of communication system · mobile medical team or naval ambulance in char areas. Kazipur · Establishment of clustered (Guccho) villages. (River flood) local · construction of flood shelters. · construction of adequate bridge and culverts. · drainage congestion due to rainwater& unplanned urbanization · take shelter on roads, high-rise or under construction buildings. · Unavailability of pure and portable water. · made Macha (shelves made of bamboo) to keep necessary goods. · spread of mosquitoes. · store water for longer time or use purifier to reduce odor. · child malnutrition. · monitoring and cleaning of small water bodies and drains. · inequitable & improper wage distribution despite of laws. · spraying of insecticides regularly. · Wages snatched by hijackers or offenders. · Better health care facilities by government or local ngos. · social insecurity. · government initiatives regarding equitable and deserving wage distribution among the · increase of poly-marriages among slum-dwellers. workers. congestion) · Rise of child-labor or offenses. · Enforcement of strict rules by police force. · prohibition of polygamy. · Ensure adequate schooling. Mohammadpur (Drainage · Establishment of day-care centers. continued on next page t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h MaTRIx 5. ClIMaTe IMPaCTs anD aDaPTaTIon MeasuRes (continued) Areas Impacts Adaptation measures · casualties and health disorder. · Broadcasting of warning system in local language · destruction of school, college and madrasa hamper education system. · Establishment of rescue team in each community. · salinity intrusion in croplands. · Education centers remain close during disaster. · disrupt communication system. · construction of polders to protect agricultural lands. · scarcity of portable water supply. · need to increase the road level considering the future hazards. ....) · tourism suffers · installation of community base deep tube-well is needed. local · dry fish industry suffers · improve tourist facilities and provide better protection, like provision of life jackets, etc. cox's bazaar · salt industry suffers · Use green house technology, where fishes can receive enough heat even in the rainy conditions and will be protected from insects. · Use modern technologies that can produce salt even in rainy conditions. · poor crop production due to salinity. · innovation of salt-tolerant as well as cyclone-tolerant crops. · loss of biodiversity of mangrove forest by tidal surge. · greenbelt. · Unemployment · Rainwater-harvesting. · migration · industrialization. (Khulna) Regional · poor social cohesion · construction of cyclone-tolerant houses. · improvement of warning system. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 73 74 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Some issues were discussed in all three levels (national, regional level workshops, participants from different local, and regional), such as land zoning, innovation of economic and professional groups talked in a friendly disaster tolerant crop verities, alternative livelihood way with their group members. However, at national options, green belts along the river or sea, and improve- level workshops, participants from rural areas were more ment of educational system. This suggests that these reluctant to speak up in front of experts, even though developments or improvement are needed in all the facilitator engaged them in the exercise and sought selected sites of Bangladesh. Construction of embank- their opinion on critical issues; they finally found them- ments (as in The Netherlands), reduction of carbon selves in line. emissions, and population growth were exceptional issues raised only at the regional level workshop in All participants indicated having either gained or Khulna. expanded climate change knowledge, and some local government officials said that they were going to use Con C lusI ons f RoM T he WoRK sh o P what they have learned at the workshop in their devel- T R aCK opment plans. Community participants also offered to disseminate information about what they learned at the After each of the PSD workshops at the national, local workshop, especially with regards to fashioning sustain- and regional levels, there was a wrap-up session where able adaptation strategies to cope with climate change views of participants about the overall improvement of impacts. At the local and regional level, representative of their territory were discussed. These lessons were given BIDS concluded the workshops by reviewing the a very critical consideration and it became evident as participants' vision, problems they face in their life, the issues from different groups (such as, civil society, existing strategies they adopt, and recommendations professional, and gender group) conferred, positive and about future adaptation pathways. The organizers of the negative possibilities around those points were identi- workshops at local and regional level (basically the local fied by the participants. The part most liked by the NGOs) were also cordially thanked by the representa- participants was the participatory and friendly atmo- tive for their participation. Apart from these, the task sphere under which the exercises took place. There were on Adaptation Pathways should be explained more initial fears that participants representing communities explicitly, showing appropriate samples rather than and livelihood groups might feel reluctant to take part blank flow charts. As this is the most important output in the exercises, having found themselves in the midst of the workshop, so more time should be allotted for of local government officials. But at the local and this exercise in all levels. MaTRIx 6. Issues anD aDaPTaTIon PaThWaYs Local Regional Mohammadpur 1st Sarankhola Kazipur (Drainage Cox's bazaar nd Issues National 2 National (Cyclone) (Riverflood) congestion) (Tidal flood) Khulna · land pattern Reforms · land Zoning. · Exploration of · land Reform · legal Aid · land zoning · land zoning. · formulation of a new · following building tourism. · price reduction · transparency and integrated master plan for codes. of basic goods. accountability of urban management. governing authorities. · decentralization of Policy & governance administrative, academic and institutional authorities. · increase in public · inclusion of · Road transport · improvement · Broadcasting of awareness through media chapters on of roads and warning system in · development of early climate change in communication local language warning system. text-books. system. · powerful radio station · Ensure · providing trainings to services telemedicine volunteer Information & facilities. · increase Energy capacity. · solar panel · Electricity · Electricity access to · supply of gas, · cooking gas facilities. facilities in facilities all households water and shelters. electricity energy · Awareness on new crop · innovation of · saline tolerant -- N/A · plantation of · innovation of salt varieties. hazard tolerant varieties indigenous species tolerant varieties · improved Water crop varieties. as green belt and in agriculture governance preservation of · construction of d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s · Water harvesting existing flora. embankment like · pond/canal excavation · stop hill cutting. netherlands · modern technologies · construction of management Agriculture & for dry fish and salt houses resilient to natural resource industries. cyclones · protection of sundarban · coastal greenbelt · protect green · long term river · separated · green-belt and spa · maintaining the and biodiversity. · Afforestation along belt dredging. place for construction stability of · coastal greenbelt. the embankments. garbage. mangrove forestry. · planting trees · Using silt come at both side of from high tide. road. · Reduction of environment carbon emission. continued on next page 75 76 MaTRIx 6. Issues anD aDaPTaTIon PaThWaYs (continued) Local Regional Mohammadpur 1st Sarankhola Kazipur (Drainage Cox's bazaar nd Issues National 2 National (Cyclone) (Riverflood) congestion) (Tidal flood) Khulna · Resource mobilization. · Employment · -construction of · -livelihood options · Employment · training on tourism · create Alternative opportunities. strong & durable for the unemployed. opportunity and oriented livelihood livelihood options embankment. · -tube well training for options. with regional · -construction of installation in men and basis. adequate shelters women number of · - Embankment for cyclone shelters preventing river economic with basic erosion diversification amenities. · -Establishment of industries · subsidize on · prevention of · Establishment of · -Birth- · implementation of · Reduction of social scheme early marriage. clustered registration by population reduction population growth. (health, · -Women · (Guccho) villages. free of cost. methods. Education, Empowerment. · -prohibition of Employment, · - Ensuring polygamy. climatic hazard female etc.) education social policy · -Ensure social security. · Educated and skilled · change schools · -Establishment of · Establishment · training and human Resources calendar by schools and colleges of government education facilities following hazards · - vocational training secondary and about present and occurrence period. institute in each higher future occupations. Upazilla education education and training centers. t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h 77 6. ConClusIons anD cope, thus identifying the priorities for each community and hence, the country as a whole. ReCoMMenDaTIons MajoR fInDInGs anD ReCoMMenDaTIons The findings of this study provide a detailed overview of the various types and intensities of climatic hazards 1. Synergistic Effects of Multiple Hazards: The faced by different communities across the country, as eight hotspots have been selected such that each represented by the eight selected hotspots. There are represents one of the major climate change-related wide differences in the socio-economic conditions and hazards that occur in Bangladesh. Although each geographical settings of each of the hotspots, which lead hotspot has been identified as being vulnerable to to differences in possession of capital assets and liveli- one particular "primary" hazard, the field visits hood options. The climate change-related hazards bring revealed that in most hotspots there are also some about multiple impacts on the communities which dete- "secondary" hazards which exacerbate the situation riorate their existing conditions and increase their further. The hazards which have been termed "sec- vulnerabilities to further events. In order to cope and ondary" are sometimes responsible for triggering adapt to these recurring events, the local people have the primary hazards, as in the case of salinity prone adopted a variety of mechanisms based on their indige- hotspot, where frequent cyclones and tidal surges nous knowledge and capacities. However, these practices are leading to salinity intrusion. In other cases, such are not enough to sustain their lives and livelihoods in as the river flood prone hotspot, the secondary haz- the face of frequent and intense natural disasters. The ard or river erosion is actually the effect of the river government, together with assistance from local NGOs floods which occur in that area every monsoon sea- and international donor agencies, should take initiatives son. Sometimes the hazards may be mutually exclu- to increase the adaptive capacities of the people either sive, but their synergistic effects magnify the level by reducing their exposure to hazards and minimizing of impacts on the villagers. For instance, in the their damages or by strengthening their asset base and cyclone prone hotspot, river bank erosion is causing thus building their capacities. continuous loss of agriculture land, which reduces people's livelihood options and hence, their ability The situation in each of the eight hotspots portrays the to cope with frequent cyclones. Similarly, in the spatially differentiated patterns of vulnerability to drought prone hotspot, while some lands on the climatic variability and climate change. By analyzing the eastern side are left fallow during dry season due to impacts of various event, the study demonstrates the lack of irrigation facilities, other lands adjacent to inter-linkages between the different sectors and identi- the Punarbhaba River are flooded during monsoon, fies the vulnerable groups within a particular commu- thus preventing cultivation of Aus and Aman crops. nity. It also focuses on the institutional and economical 2. Poor Asset Base Resulting in Limited factors that facilitate or undermine people's ability to Livelihood Options: In rural areas of 78 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h Bangladesh, traditionally people have depended are frequent, the impacts of one event build on on natural resources for earning their living, for those of the previous one, creating damages much which possession of agricultural land and/or greater than that could be inflicted by discrete access to water bodies play a significant role. Poor events. In the cyclone, salinity and tidal flood people and marginal farmers, who constitute the prone areas, frequent cyclones cause massive major portion of most communities, often have destruction of embankments, houses, roads, insignificant amounts of land and agricultural bridges, trees, crops, and fisheries and loss of machineries, for which they can hardly earn a human and animal lives. Entry of tidal water due profit or store enough grains to sustain their fami- to high waves and breached embankments leads to lies. In the waterlogged, cyclone and tidal flood inundation and salinization of agricultural lands prone hotspots, where loss of land and soil fertility and water bodies, severely affecting the liveli- have compelled many people to change their live- hoods of the already homeless people. These lihoods from cropping to fishing, earnings from physical losses also lead to social problems such as fishing are also poor as overfishing has been lead- conflicts, financial inequalities, social insecurities, ing to dwindling fish populations. Due to lack of family tensions, and unemployment. In salinity proper education and employment opportunities, prone hotspots, conflicts exist between poor crop people cannot move to service or manufacturing cultivators and rich shrimp farmers because the sectors, which would have provided a fixed latter intentionally breach the embankment to income source. Under these circumstances, people allow entry of saline water. In the tidal flood are temporarily migrating to other rural or urban prone area, on one hand, the poor fishermen are areas to work as day laborers, earning Tk. 80­100/ suffering from decreasing wages and lower day. Those who have indigenous knowledge in catches, whereas on the other hand, the rich land- handicraft making, as in the case of the water- lords and fish businessmen who hire them are so logged and flash flood prone hotspots, are trying wealthy that they live in towns in multi-storied to earn some money by making fishing traps or buildings. When the male members of a family mats. Livestock products are often used for house- migrate to other areas for work or remain at sea hold consumption or sold in the market, but in for months, the families are separated and women many areas, lack of agricultural bi-products leads living on their own often feel insecure. In the to food shortage and makes livestock rearing quite river flood, flash flood, cyclone, and salinity expensive. Thus, in the absence of adequate prone areas, riverbank erosion makes life highly income, poor people are gradually getting trapped uncertain and risky for people who are compelled under the burden of loans. to shift their houses every few years. Absence of 3. Impacts of multiple hazards leading to addi- crop production due to floods, waterlogging, or tional vulnerability: Each of the different types salinity--coupled with high population growth of hazards has various physical and socio-eco- and poor development--lead to high unemploy- nomic impacts, both in the short- and long-run. ment. These translate into diminished capacity to Some hazards, like cyclones, are so intense that afford good education, food, and health, which they destroy everything in few hours, while others deteriorates their situation further. Thus, the such as floods and waterlogging take weeks to impacts of these multiple hazards create a ripple manifest their range of effects. While people have effect making the communities further vulnerable to live in hostile conditions during the disaster, to climatic events. the major hardships often arise in the post-disaster 4. People practice various adaptation measures period when people are left with nothing. Some available to them: Given the limited asset base, impacts are so devastating that they leave their people in these eight hotspots do whatever they marks forever as people can never restore their can to protect their lives and properties from the pre-disaster conditions, while others are compara- hazards. Adaptation strategies can be hard, tively mild and give people the chance to re-estab- involving structural measures or soft, encompass- lish their lives and livelihoods. But when disasters ing non-structural practices and these can be d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 79 undertaken at the community or household level. Regardless of the hazard, some future suggestions The immediate actions involve moving to safe were common in all hotspots, while some were shelters such as high roads or cyclone shelters only specific to a particular area. Some recom- when their homes are damaged by floods or mended actions, such as building embankments, cyclones. In flood and waterlogged prone areas, are meant to reduce the exposure of the commu- people often build temporary structures such as nity to hazards (protection), while others such as false ceilings or raised platforms for cooking, liv- increasing livelihood opportunities are meant to ing, or keeping important goods. When livelihood enable the people to cope better with the hazard options are constrained, people migrate temporar- situation (accommodation). Although embank- ily to other areas in search of work as day laborers. ments already exist in certain places, they have Those who can afford also migrate permanently either been damaged or are not functioning prop- with their families to other districts or urban erly due to inadequate height or absence of sluice areas. Where agriculture is still possible, farmers gates. In areas affected by cyclones or riverbank adapt fertilizer and pesticide application, cropping erosion, people highlighted the necessity of affor- dates, irrigation patterns, or crop varieties. People estation or construction of coastal greenbelts. also try to diversify their income sources by start- River dredging is also a long-term solution to ing handicrafts, fisheries, homestead gardening, reduce impacts of floods, drought, and waterlog- or selling livestock products. Water management ging. Cyclone shelters are essential in coastal techniques such as installation of pond sand fil- areas; although they already exist, their numbers ters, and rainwater harvesting are present only in and facilities are highly inadequate to meet the the cyclone prone hotspot. People in other areas needs of the people. Other physical capital such as either use the contaminated flood waters or travel roads, electricity supply, and access to safe water long distances to fetch fresh water. Gender- are also essential to improve the lives of people. specific coping mechanisms have been observed in Human capital needs to be enhanced through bet- the waterlogged hotspot, where women wear ter education and training. Overall development sarees up to knee level and in the cyclone prone of the areas through more businesses, industrial- hotspot, where they change from sarees to salwar ization, and offices is essential to promote kameez when signals are disseminated. Although employment. People do not need loans, but they a variety of practices have been identified, none need to build their own capacity to earn and save. are sufficient to significantly reduce the extent of Decentralization of administrative, academic, and impacts on the communities; instead, they are institutional authorities is needed to promote good merely survival efforts. governance, and proper resource management 5. Need to enhance adaptive capacities of the vul- plans should be developed. 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