21979 Vol. 2 No.1 FIllE COPY CONTENTS AND SUMMARY INTERNATIONAL LENDING Africa in early October. In the third quarter AND CAPITAL MARKETS S&P downgraded Venezuela. e DEVELOPING-COUNTRY BORROWING PAGE 4 EQuITY PORTFOLIO AND Developing countries raised $16.7 billion in FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT bonds and loans in the second quarter of 1994 on depressed bond volumes. Bond is- * EMERGING STOCK MARKETS PAGE 11 sues revived in the third quarter, and at $12.9 In the third quarter the IFC's dollar-based billion were a third higher than in the previ- composite index rose 21 % as most emerging ous quarter. Market volatility led investors to stock markets posted gains. The Latin Amer- favor smaller issues with shorter maturities ican regional index gained 34%. and higher spreads. Lebanon tapped the in- ternational bond market for the first time in September, and Argentina had debut issues U NEW EQUITIES, QUASI-EQUITIES, in the eurolira and Austrian schilling sectors. AND DERIVATIVES PAGE 12 In the third quarter international equity is- sues by developing countries were higher, i GLOBAL BORROWING PAGE 7 but cautious investor sentiment affected pric- In the second quarter of 1994, according to ing and the size of issues. Several new funds the OECD, $213 billion was raised in inter- targeting smaller capitalization markets with national capital markets, down slightly from high upside potential were launched. the earlier quarter because of continuing in- Derivative activity is strong in emerging mar- flation concerns, which reduced bond is- kets but is limited to the liquid markets. suance. New syndicated lending rebounded on large refinancings by corporations and mergers and acquisitions activity. U FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND PRIVATIZATION PAGE 14 At over $65 billion (net) in 1993, FDI to de- * COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS PAGE 8 veloping countries was at a record high. Cross-border claims of BIS reporting banks Countries are seeking to attract FDI to fi- (including local foreign currency lending) nance infrastructure projects. Pakistan contracted by $27 billion in the first quarter launched its divestment program, and Chile of 1994. Claims on developing countries sought to renew asset sales. grew due to lending to Asia. Developing countries are experiencing higher volumes and improved terms for project financing. In SECONDARY MAR KETS early October Argentina returned to the in- FOR DEVELOPING- ternational syndicated loan market after an COUNTRY DEBT PAGE 15 absence of more than 10 years. Trading volumes reached a record $1.98 tril- lion in 1993, according to the Emerging Mar- * MARKET CREDITWORTHINESS PAGE 9 ket Traders Association. Despite interest rate Markets continue to perceive a broad-based uncertainty, local factors lifted debt prices in improvement in developing-country risk, ac- secondary markets in the third quarter. Sec- cording to Institutional Investor's semiannual ondary market returns on eurobonds also survey. Moody's and S&P both rated South edged higher in the quarter. 2 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CONTENTS AND SUMMARY OFFICIAL FLOWS: FINANCIAL BRIEF: 4/ MULTILATERAL AND INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES < G BILATERAL FAVOR DEVELOPING J COUNTRIES AS LOCATIONS * MULTILATERAL FLOWS PAGE 17 FOR FDI PAGE 19 In September the World Bank's Board ap- proved wider use of financial guarantees of In the recent surge in foreign direct invest- noncommercial risk in private sector lend- ment flows to developing countries, the tra- ing. The proposal is aimed particularly at ditional links between home countries and promoting private sector financing of large- host regions appear to be weakening as in- scale infrastructure projects. vesting companies seek to supply the largest and fastest-growing markets. * BILATERAL ODA AND EXPORT CREDITS PAGE 17 STATISTICAL APPENDIX An Accelerated Cofinancing Facility for the taionf8 krar Export-Import Bank ofJapan was established * BANK AND TRADE-RELATED PAGE 23 & De URrct.0n in the third quarter to simplify and stream- NONBANK CLAIMS line procedures for cofinancing by EXIM A(OV 2 2 M COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS Japan and the World Bank. Also in the quar- ter EXIMJapan approved about $270 million ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PAGE 24 in new untied loans and guarantees. * COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEBT RELIEF UPDATE BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN PAGE 25 * OFFICIAL CREDITORS PAGE 18 * MATURITIES OF BANK CLAIMS In the third quarter Paris Club creditors ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PAGE 29 rescheduled debt of the Philippines and Sierra Leone. * FUNDS RAISED ON INTER- NATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS PAGE 30 * COMMERCIAL CREDITORS PAGE 18 * SECONDARY MARKET DEBT In the third quarter commercial bank credi- PRICES PAGE 31 tors selected options for debt restructuring under a Brady-style agreement for Poland. * EMERGING STOCK MARKETS PAGE 32 Commercial bank creditors reached an agreement with Russia in early October. * FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS PAGE 33 COMMERCIAL BANK * COUNTRY GROUPS PAGE 34 PROVISIONING AND CAPITAL ADEQUACY PAGE 19 The tables on external debt and aggregate long- US bank profitability strengthened thanks to tern resource flows, included in previous issues, high interest margins. European banks also will be published only as data are updated, usu- are regaining profitability, ally once a year in February. NOVEMBER 1994 3 t- NA1-C.N A LN A AP -I -AA L M As R,r DEVELOPING-COUNTRY TABLE2 BORROWING BOND ISSUES BY TYPE OF BORROWER A DEVELOPING COUNTRIES RAISED $16.7 US$ millions BILLION IN MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM DEBT 1992 1993 Q2 Q3 According to the OECD, developing coun- All developing countries 21,244 56,199 9,768 12,913 tries raised $16.7 billion on international Private 9771 20,300 4,173 5,670 Sub-Sahar-an Africa 73 0 0 320 bond and loan markets in the second quar- East Asia and Pacific 2,121 4,547 2,788 2,205 ter of 1994, down 16% from the first quarter South Asia 0 556 40 250 ter of 1994, down ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Europe and Central Asia 65 354 311 1 21 and only slightly higher than the level a year Latin America and Caribbean 7,512 14,843 934 2,774 ago. The decline was entirely accounted for Middle East and North Afrca 0 0 0 0 by depressed bond volumes (table 1). Ex- Sovereign 5,761 19,904 2,678 4,107 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 15 0 0 0 panding loan volumes and lower bond issues East Asia and Pacific 300 907 0 910 boosted the share of bank credit in total bor- Soutn Asia 0 0 0 0 Europe and Central Asia 4,446 15,115 2,358 2,037 rowing to 43%, up from 31% a year ago. Asia Latin America and Caribbean 700 3,882 320 760 led with $9.1 billion in borrowing, split about Middle East and North Africa 0 0 0 400 evenly between bonds and loans. Latin Amer- Other public 5,712 15,994 2,917 3,136 Sub-Saharan Africa 336 0 0 0 ica raised most of its $3.8 billion through EastAsia and Pacfic 2,818 8,1 56 1,276 2,752 bonds. The share of bond financing for Cen- South As a 0 0 100 0 tra* and Eastern Europe, which raised nearly Europe and Central As a 123 928 520 284 tral and Eastern Europe, which raised nearly Latin America and Caribbean 2,435 6,91 0 1,021 100 $500 million, was 90%. Middle East and North Africa 0 0 0 0 Source: Euromoney Bondware and World Bank. U DEVELOPING-COUNTRY BOND ISSUES REBOUND IN THE THIRD QUARTER other industrial countries sparked inflation Bond markets continued to be nervous. Un- fears and signaled an upturn in interest rate certainty over the strength of the US recov- cycles. Developing-country bond volume ery fueled bond yield volatility in the dollar strengthened in the third quarter at $12.9 bil- sector, and revival of economic activity in lion (table 2). It was up one-third from the previous quarter but well below recent highs. TABLE I Sovereign borrowers issued one and a half INTERNATIONAL BORROWING BY SELECTED DEVELOPING times the amount in the preceding quarter, COUNTRIES private borrowing was up more than a third US$ millions 1992 1993 1994Q1 1994Q2 and public borrowing was also slightly Totol Bonds Totol Bonds Totol Bonds Total Bonds higher. At $2.3 billion the Republic of Korea Argentrna 1,529.2 1,529.2 6,473,2 6,097.2 1,410.0 1,410.0 9 4.2 914.2 again topped the Asian bond league table, Brazi 3,010.0 2,830.0 6.449.4 6,120.4 1,170.9 1,170.9 287.8 62.8 followed by Thailand ($1.1 billion), China Chile 350.0 0 774.6 432.6 0 0 0 0 China 4,043.2 1,274.0 6,756.0 2,956.8 2,608.7 500.0 1,567.3 758.1 ($890 million), and Malaysia ($570 million). Czech Republica 39.5 I5.5 902.6 702.6 0 0 250.0 250.0 Mexico led Latin American borrowers with Hungary 1,446 1 1,234.0 5,070.7 4,808.6 232.8 57.8 242 1 92 1 India 200.6 0 475.0 445.0 509.0 439.0 190.0 135.0 $1.2 billion, Argentina raised $880 million, Indonesia 2,641.2 611.0 3,726,0 1,725.9 1,379.2 159.0 1,5 8.0 1,125.0 and Brazil raised $600 million. In Eastern Eu- Korea, Rep. of 5,204.0 3,181.6 7,718.8 5,646.2 655.4 ,273.5 2,047.0 558.3 Malaysia 1,270.6 0 1,611.1 0 800.9 330.0 1,422.0 135.0 rope, Hungary was the most active issuer, Mexico 3,373.6 2,923.4 9,751.5 9,351.4 3,085.0 3,085.0 2,305.0 1,095.0 with $670 million. Pakistan 0 0 92.3 92.3 0 0 45.0 45.0 Poland 8.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Thailand 2,718.3 646.1 5,550.4 2,166.5 2,846.5 1,68 .0 1,451.1 179, * SMALLER ISSUES, SHORTER MATURITIES, Turkey 4,579.9 2,777.1 5,762.7 3,858.8 842.0 7 9.8 8.9 0 AND HIGHER SPREADS FOR BORROWERS Venezuela 1,035.4 830.4 2,931.3 2,142.9 0 0 0 0 Zimbabwe 11 5.0 0 90.0 0 0 0 0 0 As investors remained cautious in an uncer- Note: Bonds nclude both internatonal issues (euromarkets) and tradtional foreign issues. tain interest rate environment, the primary a. Data before April 1993 refer to Czechoslovakia. Source: OECD, Finnciai Stotistics (month y), August 1994. issue market saw smaller deals. Nearly all 4 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ~t - . ! - r i '4Kb K-~l * PhrL ; Fi ,A., MARK'ETS third-quarter issues were under $250 million, active in this market, led by China with over and the average size was about $115 million. $600 million in issues. Latin American An exception was the 10-year, $500 million borrowers tapped the yen sector in October, global note offering (the first global bond the first time this year, with a two-and-a-half- with a put option) at 80 basis points over US year, Y10 billion issue by the Republic of Treasuries by the Korea Development Bank Uruguay. at the end of September. A seven-year, $300 Borrowers looking to raise large sums and million offering by Mexico's cement com- contain costs have sought to diversify over a pany, Cemex, was the largest private sector wide range of currencies and markets. The issue from Mexico this year. In October third quarter saw first-time issues by Ar- Argentina issued a five-year, $500 million gentina in several currencies, including the fixed-rate global bond. Difficult market con- eurolira and the euro-Canadian dollar. Ar- ditions also reined in maturities on develop- gentina's three-year, 300 billion lira issue, ing-country issues. As investors favored which was increased from 250 billion lira, was short-dated securities, the average issue ma- the first such issue by a Latin American bor- turity was about five years, and 65% of the is- rower. Argentina also tapped the Austrian sues had maturities of five years or less (figure 1). FIGURE ¶ With investors increasingly sensitive to BOND ISSUES FROM DEVELOPING credit quality, average spread differentials COUNTRIES, BY MATURITY for developing-country borrowers were US$ * Over I5 years higher. Third-quarter borrowing spreads on n62 - sI-ISyears US-dollar-denominated fixed-rate issues C] 6-10 years averaged nearly 300 basis points, compared I-s years with about 200 basis points in the first quar- ter. Despite interest rate volatility, fixed-rate issues outpaced floating-rate securities. Fixed-rate instruments accounted for 59% of 12.9 9.8 total bonds as floating-rate note (FRN) issues slipped to 27% of market share (figure 2). , Convertible bond issues were depressed by 1993 1994Q2 1994Q3 low investor confidence in the underlying Sauce Euromoney Bondware and World Bank share markets. FIGURE 2 BORROWERS DIVERSIFY FUNDING BOND ISSUES FROM DEVELOPING SOURCES, AND NEW ISSUERS TAP THE COUNTRIES, BY TYPE INTERNATIONAL MARKET US$ biliions 56.2 Although issuance in the dollar sector re- * Floating-rate mained large, weak investor demand and in- C Convertible creasing sensitivity to risk in this sector l Fixed-rate prompted issuers to seek other markets (fig- ure 3). The yen sector more than doubled its market share, as the yen strengthened and Japanese interest rates remained low. 12.9 Demand byJapanese institutional and retail 9.B investors and by foreign investors was con- = _i centrated at the short end of the market, 1993 1994Q2 1994Q3 however. Asian borrowers were particularly Surce. Earomoney Bondaare and World Bank. r t A R- :/}eE:;? -493t; 5 INT.RNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS FIGURE 3 schilling market for the first time, with a ure 4). Financial institutions account for CURRENCY three-year, 750 million schilling eurobond, 46% of bond borrowings in East Asia and for BOND ISSUES, and borrowed in the Dragon bond market. 43% in Latin America. The government is a 1 994Q3 Elsewhere, Hungary was active in several sec- major borrower in Europe and Central Asia Asia ($6.1 billion) tors in the third quarter, issuing in the US and Latin America; the manufacturing sector ASia ($6.1 billMion dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. is a large borrower in South and East Asia. n% Despite weakness in international bond ['Njen 24% markets, a steady stream of new issuers * DEVELOPING-COUNTRY BORROWERS FACE tapped the euromarkets. Lebanon had a A BUNCHING OF DEBT MATURITIES US dollars 73% debut eurobond. Initially planned at $300 As an increasing number of developing- million, the issue was raised to $400 million country issuers have tapped international Latin America ($3.6 billion) on strong demand from a wide investor base. bond markets, the outstanding stock of these Others 9% The bonds were priced to yield 325 basis bonds has risen. At the end of September this Yn2% DM 2% points over corresponding Treasuries. In Au- stock was about $ 100 billion (excluding loans r gust Colombia's Banco Ganadero offered a converted to Brady bonds). With relatively US dollars 87% five-year, $125 million bond (raised from short bond maturities (averaging seven years $100 million), and at the end of September in 1993 and five years in 1994) and bullet the Republic of Colombia issued its second amortizations, developing-country amortiza- Asia($2.4 billion) Yankee bond ($175 million). Elsewhere, tion payments are set to rise in the near to US dollars 10% Mexico City-Cuernavaca Trust raised $265 medium term. After negligible increases in Yen 79% Swfr5% million through a seven-year issue securi- 1994, these payments are projected to rise to Others 6% tized by revenues from four toll roads. nearly $5 billion in 1995, and developing- 0 2 Indonesian entities sought financing in country issuers face a bunching of maturities international bond markets, issuing a string of almost $20 billion in 1998 (figure 5). of bonds, including the first Dragon bond by Snrce: EuromoneyBoedwareandWord an Indonesian corporation. The Kalbe * ARGENTINA ESTABLISHES A PESO Bank. Farma pharmaceutical company issued an TREASURY MARKET, AND HUNGARY'S PUBLIC unrated, $100 million, five-year floater in the ISSUE MARKET RECEIVES A BOOST Dragon bond market inJuly. The third quar- The Argentine government, in its first sale of ter also saw several issues by Indonesian state treasury bills (Letras del Tesoro, or Letes) in FIGURE 4 banks. With strong investor demand for recent years, auctioned $15 million in peso- SECTORAL BREAK- Philippine issues, the Philippine National denominated securities and $12 million in CDOUNT RY BDOND NG Bank's three-year FRN issue was increased dollar-denominated instruments in August. ISSUES, JANUARY- from a planned $150 million to $195 million The establishment of the treasury bill market SEPTEMBER 1994 in early October. Elsewhere, the Republic of widens the Republic's funding sources and Trinidad and Tobago had a $150 million, 10- deepens the local fixed-income market, Gvrment Menu fyctrnns 31% Mmin4% g year issue and India's Essar Gujarat issued a which is dominated by Bonex (US-dollar- nergy 4% $200 million, five-year FRN in the third denominated instruments) and Bocones Other quarter. (US-dollar- and peso-denominated instru- 16% ments). * FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS LEAD The third quarter saw both the EBRD and Finonce 35% DEVELOPING-COUNTRY BORROWING the IFC establish forint medium-term note Note: 'Other includes tilitese Financial and banking institutions have been programs, intended to deepen the Hunga- agriculture' construction, transportation androtheservsen too the leading issuers of developing-country rian domestic public bond market. The Source: Euromoney Bor,dware ar,d World Bank. bonds in international markets. After ac- EBRD's public offering was a five-year, 1 bil- counting for 29% of all bond funds raised in lion forint (about $10 million) floating-rate 1993, the financial sector increased its share issue, part of a 5 billion forint medium-term to 35% in the first three quarters of 1994 (fig- note program. This issue, made in July, 6 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES iNTERNATIONAL LENDINC, AND CAPITAL MARKETS opened the Hungarian public bond market to foreigners. The funds are to be on-lent for MATURING BONDS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, 1995-2009 local projects. The return on the bonds is US$ bd,ions linked to an index of short-term local inter- 20 D] South Asia est rates, and while the issue is guaranteed by E Europe and Central Asia the EBRD, which is AAA-rated, investors bear /8 = Middle East and North Africa currency risk. The IFC's medium-term note * Latin America and the Caribbean currency ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 6 UEast Asia program (of 5 billion forint) will enable it to borrow in forint for on-lending to local com- 14 panies. 12 10 GLOBAL BORROWING 8 a IN THE SECOND QUARTER INFLATION CONCERNS SLOWED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL 6 MARKET ACTIVITY 4 According to the OECD, $213 billion was raised on capital markets in the second quar- 2 ter of 1994, slightly below first-quarter levels 0 (table 3). Gross bond issues tumbled to $87 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Nitee Excludes debt conversion bonds. billion, a six-quarter low, because of inflation Source Fss-o,ey Bondsare and Word sake concerns and yield volatility. The first-quar- ter shift away from straight issues was less pro- nounced in the second quarter because of interest rates were expected to increase, the weakness in FRN and equity-linked sectors. market share of the European currency sec- At 17%, the share of floating-rate instru- tor shrank to 38%. The French franc sector ments in all bond issues was sharply down accounted for 11% of all bond issues, the from the first-quarter level of 28%. British pound sector for 8%, and the Rising interest rates and market volatility deutsche mark sector for 6%. The drachma heightened investors' perceptions of risk and sector was active with "Marathon bond" and prompted some borrowers to postpone is- eurodrachma issues. sues. With investors increasingly sensitive to credit quality and preferring shorter maturi- TABLE 3 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKET ties of five years or less, many borrowers FLOWS pulled back from the market. But funding re- US$ billons quirements fueled central and regional gov- Instrument 1991 1992 1993 1994Q1 1994Q2 ernment borrowing, which continued at a Bonds 308.7 333.7 481.0 127.6 86.6 brisk pace in both the fixed- and floating-rate Equity 23 4 23.5 40.7 11.2 16.0 Syndicated loans 116.0 117.9 36.7 23.3 51.8 sectors. These issuers accounted for a third NF5 and other of the funds raised in international bond back-upfacilites 77 6.7 8.2 0.2 2.1 ECP5 and other non- markets in the second quarter. underwritten faciities 80.2 127.9 52.0 54.5 56.9 The low cost of funding in yen relative to Total 536.0 609.7 818.6 216.8 213.4 other major currencies boosted the yen sec- Flows to develop ng tor's share to 26%, a threefold increase from countres' (percent) 9.1 8.0 1 1.5 11.od 10.0 the first quarter. Rising US interest rates de- a Note issuance faci tes. b. Eurocommercal paper. pressed the market share of the dollar sector c. Including Eastern European countnes. d. Est mute. by nearly a third, to 31%. Because European Source: OECD, Fmancial Market Trends. NOVEMBER 1994 7 +.NEW SYNDICATED LENDING REBOUNDED Those of banks located in Europe, especially IN THE SECOND QUARTER BECAUSE OF France and Germany, were sharply lower, REFINANCING AND MERGERS AND however, because domestic borrowers sold ACQUISITIONS ACTIVITY securities and repaid the loans used to pur- Gross new syndicated loans in the second chase these securities. International claims of quarter were $52 billion, more than double banks in the United States were virtually un- first-quarter levels. With the volume of bond changed. issues tumbling, the share of syndicated cred- its in total financing jumped to 24%, from E BIS BANKS' EXPOSURE TO DEVELOPING about 11% in the first quarter. Lending was COUNTRIES ROSE IN THE FIRST QUARTER, strong on large refinancings by corporations WITH DIVERGENT REGIONAL TRENDS and mergers and acquisition activity. US bor- BIS banks' outstanding claims (adjusted for rowers continued to have a major presence exchange rate changes) on developing coun- in the market, and Asian borrowers were also tries (including Eastern Europe and the for- active. mer Soviet Union) expanded by $7.4 billion Bank lending is rising as high levels of cap- in the first quarter of this year, following an ital and liquidity at American and European $11 billion rise in the fourth quarter of 1993. banks (compared with recent years) fuel a Lending to developing countries other than demand for income-producing assets. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union Japanese banks also are returning to the boosted BIS banks' claims by $9.9 billion, credit markets as a stronger yen helps to im- compared with a $12.9 billion increase in the prove their balance sheets. The return of previous quarter. banks to the international loan market is in- Following a recent trend, lending was con- creasing competition and helping to shrink centrated in Asian developing countries. lending margins on loans to creditworthy New credits to Thailand surged because of firms. borrowing by local companies and offshore banking activity, with claims rising by $4.9 bil- lion. Lending to the Republic of Korea rose COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS by $1.9 billion and to Malaysia by $1.7 billion. Claims on India and Indonesia were also ~9 IN THE FIRST QUARTER BIS BANKS' higher. China was a notable exception, with CROSS-BORDER CLAIMS CONTRACTED BUT claims contracting by $3.1 billion, reversing NET CREDIT EXPANDED end-year short-term interbank positions. Cross-border and local foreign currency Movements in BIS banks' claims on other claims of BIS reporting banks fell by $27 bil- developing regions were mixed. Claims on lion in the first quarter of 1994 after climb- Latin American countries declined by $1.1 ing by $195 billion in each of the previous billion, with Venezuela experiencing the two quarters. The decline was caused by a largest decline ($1.4 billion) because of dif- scaling back of interbank business. By con- ficulties in its domestic banking system. Re- trast, net international bank credit (or new porting banks' claims on Argentina and lending) expanded by $95 billion, a seven- Uruguay were also lower, but at $1.2 billion quarter high, as banks on-lent the surge in the increase in claims on Brazil remained nonbank and official deposits. New syndi- large. The $2.5 billion contraction in claims cated credit facilities were practically un- on Eastern Europe and the former Soviet changed at $53.8 billion on divergent Union was led by a $2.1 billion decline in patterns across regions. claims on the former Soviet Union. The International claims of banks in Japan Czech Republic was the only country that in- continued to rise, increasing $18.4 billion. creased its borrowing from BIS reporting 8 4N`AI FUD,As AND TFiE DEVEL3PING COUNTR:FS INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS banks in the first quarter. Elsewhere, claims falls arising from delays in the privatization of TABLE 4 increased by $3.4 billion on Middle Eastern four domestic gas companies. PROJECT FINANCE ON A COMMITMENT countries and by $162 million on African Hungary leads Eastern European borrow- BASIS countries. ers in the syndicated loan sector. It obtained The increase in claims on developing a $300 million, five-year deal this quarter fol- Sept. countries was accompanied by sizable with- lowing last January's $175 million, six-year 1993 1994 drawals of funds by these countries, causing loan. Hungarian corporations also are turn- Total project finance (US$ billions) 18.3 16.5 deposits to contract by $4.9 billion. Among ing to the syndicated loan market as a source Project finance as Asian countries, deposits made by residents of funds. Investel, the financing arm of the percentage oftotal loan syndications 29 31 of China fell by $3.3 billion and those made national telecommunications company, Average maturity by residents of Malaysia fell by $1.6 billion. Matav, has syndicated a $150 million, five- (years) 9 10 Average size For the fifth consecutive quarter, Middle year loan, the first medium-term loan for a (US$ millions) 93 107 Eastern residents continued to draw down Hungarian company. Elsewhere in the re- Source: Euromoney Loanware and deposits. Saudi Arabia accounted for $2.3 bil- gion, the Czech and Slovak bank, lion of the nearly $4 billion fall in the re- Ceskoslovenska Obchodni Banka, is raising gion's assets. Residents of Eastern Europe $75 million (up from a planned $50 million) and the former Soviet Union also lowered de- through a five-year syndicated credit. posits, by $2.1 billion. By contrast, residents of Latin American countries increased their deposits by $2.4 billion, led by Venezuela's MARKET CREDITWORTHINESS $1.3 billion buildup of assets. U DEVELOPING-COUNTRY - HIGHER VOLUMES AND BETTER TERMS CREDITWORTHINESS CONTINUES FOR PROJECT FINANCE TO IMPROVE Project finance on a commitment basis dou- Institutional Investor's latest semiannual sur- bled between 1990 and 1993 and continued vey of country credit shows developing-coun- to grow rapidly in the first nine months of try risk continuing to improve, as assessed by 1994. Developing-country infrastructure market participants. Latin America shows the (telecommunications and power) financing greatest strengthening of country creditwor- is fueling this upward trend. Project lending thiness, a result of reestablishing access to tends to be concentrated in a handful of foreign funds and resolving debt problems. high-credit countries. Borrowers are seeing The regional rating rose (on a scale of 0 to more favorable terms on project finance, 100, and using equal country weights) 1.4 with maturities stretching and loan size in- points to 27.2 as most countries in the region creasing (table 4). Borrowing spreads also saw improvements in sovereign credit. Peru appear to be narrowing. led with a 3.5-point rise, followed by Barba- dos (up 3.0), Costa Rica (up 2.7), and * ARGENTINA RETURNS TO THE Panama (up 2.3). Venezuela was the only INTERNATIONAL SYNDICATED LOAN MARKET country to suffer a decline (1.6 points); its Although high-credit Asian economies con- rating fell as a result of political and eco- tinue to receive the bulk of bank credits, in- nomic difficulties. creasing liquidity in the syndicated loan The ratings slide in Eastern Europe was sector is helping to revive lending to Latin reversed as reforms began to take hold in the American countries. After an absence of transition economies and economic pros- more than 10 years, Argentina tapped the pects strengthened. The regional ratings syndicated loan market with a $500 million, rose from 21.8 to 22.9 points, and 15 of the 18-month deal in early October. The loan 19 economies in the region posted gains. will allow the country to meet budget short- Strong export earnings for the quarter sup- NOVEMBER 1994 9 INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS TABLE 5 ported Slovenia's 3.3-point rise, and the credit rating from major international rating SOVEREIGN FOREIGN country posted an 8.1-point gain for the year agencies. In early October, Moody's awarded CURRENCY DEBT ending September. Other large gainers in- the country a Baa3 investment-grade rating, Long-term rating, as of October i7, i994 cluded the Czech Republic, with a 3.1-point and Standard and Poor's gave it a BB sub-in- Moody's S&P increase, and Poland, with a 2.6-point in- vestment-grade rating (table 5). Earlier, crease as a result of better economic perfor- IBCA had rated the country below invest- lnvestment grade Chile Baa2 BBB+/ mance. The Baltic states also chalked up ment grade. The ratings reflect the country's China A3 BBB2 significant gains in country ratings, as did commitment to reforms and its moderate ex- Colombia Bal BBB-2 Croatia and Albania (up 1.7 points each). ternal debt burden. Cyprus n.a. AA-'I Czech Republic Baa2 BBB+2 Buoyed by favorable political develop- Venezuela's Standard and Poor's credit Greece Baa3 BBB-1 ments and peace prospects, ratings of the rating slid to B+ following the first-quarter Indonesia Baa3 BBB-2 Korea, Rep. of Al A+3 Middle Eastern economies continued to downgrade of the, country's long-term for- Malaysiaa A2 A strengthen with broad-based gains. The re- eign currency debt to BB-. The weaker rat- AA+., Malta A2 A gion's rating rose one point to 40.5, as 9 out ing reflects the country's banking problems Portugal Al AA-/ of 14 countries saw gains of one or more and its difficulties in implementing eco- South Africa Baa3 BB' points. Lebanon led the way with a 3.4-point nomic reforms. Thailand A2 A- rise, andJordan was up 2.3. However, Saudi In September Moody's placed India's Beiow investnent grade Arabia and Iran both saw their country credit foreign currency rating under review for pos- Argentina B I BB-2 ratings drop. sible upgrade. The country's successful Brazil B2 n.a. raigdop Hungary Bal BB+ Ratings of East and South Asian econo- macroeconomic policies and reform efforts India Ba2 BB+- Mexicoa Ba2/ BB+/ mies continued to edge up on large gains in have strengthened foreign exchange re- Baal MA-` some emerging-market countries. Strong serves and the balance of payments, attracted Phi ippines Ba3 BB-I Slovakia n.a. BB-] economic performance and prospects foreign investment, and boosted economic Trinidad and helped Bangladesh gain 3.2 points, Viet Nam growth. Brazil's foreign currency rating also Tobago Ba2 n.a. Turkey Ba3 B+' 3.1 points, and the Philippines 2.4 points. is under review for a possible upgrade. S&P Uruguay Ba I BB+ Elsewhere in the region, India, Malaysia, and revised the rating outlook on Colombia's for- Venezuela Ba2 B±5 Esweei h ein ni,Mlyi,ad eie h aigotoko oobasfr * The first rating applies to foreign Thailand also sustained significant increases eign currency debt from stable to positive on currency debt and the second to on improved prospects, and Sri Lanka the country's commitment to conservative domestic currency debt. n.a. Notapplicable. moved up 2.7 points on political factors. fiscal policies and continuation of economic a. The outlook for domestic cur- rency debt is stable. Ratings of African economies continued reforms. Turkey's rating was removed from 1.Stable outlook. 2. Positive outook. to post modest gains (up 0.7 point) as a com- CreditWatch after the country stabilized its 3. Negative. modity price boom improved economic currency, built up reserves, and reduced in- prospects in the region. Ethiopia led with a flation. 2.4-point gain, and better export earnings fu- Argentina's peso-payable Letras del eled Morocco's 2-point improvement. Con- Tesoro (Letes, short-term securities) were as- tinuing a recent trend, Botswana and signed an A-3 investment-grade rating, and Swaziland each gained 1.7 points and Mauri- its US-dollar-payable Letes were assigned a B tius gained 1.1 points. Debt-related problems rating. Elsewhere, in the first rating for Mex- pulled Algeria's rating down by 1.7 points, ican toll road issues, Standard and Poor's as- and political difficulties continued to ad- signed an Ar rating to $265 million, versely affect market sentiment toward seven-year notes issued by Mexico City-Cuer- Gabon. navaca Trust. The rrepresents risk from non- credit factors-that is, market risk. The * SOUTH AFRICA IS RATED, AND rating reflects the trust's repayment capacity VENEZUELA'S RATING IS LOWERED based on the favorable operating history of As South Africa began raising funds in inter- the toll road (the currency risk is assumed by national capital markets, it received a split the investor). 10 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EQUITY PORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT EMERGING STOCK MARKETS The Republic of Korea's share prices 3rd recorded new highs in September, and the Quarter * THE IFC'S DOLLAR-BASED COMPOSITE market rose 17% in the third quarter. The _ INDEX POSTED STRONG GAINS OF 21% IN market was buoyed by news that the foreign IFCG price mndex, percentage THE THIRD QUARTER, LED BY A 34% JUMP investment ceiling would be raised in 1994. change in US$ IN THE LATIN AMERICAN REGIONAL INDEX In early October the Ministry of Finance an- Since one Since lost -~~~~~ ~~year ago quarter The third quarter saw most emerging stock nounced that the general limit on foreign in- +98.1 +81.4 markets rack up large gains, recovering the vestment in shares will be raised from 10% to ground lost in the first half of the year. Good 12% in December and to 15% in 1995. Else- corporate earnings results revived local in- where in the region, Indian stock prices vestor sentiment and prompted foreign in- recorded new highs thanks to strong corpo- vestors to return, though cautiously, to these rate earnings growth, Indonesian shares re- markets. Stock market trading volumes were bounded amid sharply higher trading sharply higher in the quarter. After a first-half volumes, the Malaysian market rallied as re- decline of nearly 7%, the Latin American re- strictions were lifted on the sale of short-term gional index gained 34% in the third quarter. money market securities to foreigners and The Brazilian market was up 81 % in the third on forward transactions and swaps, and Thai quarter, 41% in August alone. The surge in shares were higher as foreign investors re- share prices was helped by the perceived suc- turned to the stock market. cess of Brazil's anti-inflation plan, the real Interest by foreign investors is evident in plan, and expectations that Fernando Hen- the market for shares of newly privatized rique Cardoso, the former finance minister, companies in Russia. These investors now ac- would win the national elections. Net foreign investment in Brazilian shares was $1.5 billion in August, bringing investment in the first FIGURE 6 Lii 3rd eight months of 1994 to $5 billion (according SELECTED EMERGING STOCK MARKETS Since one Since last Quarter to the Brazil Securities Commission). IFCG price index, percentage change In US$ year ago quarter 1994 In Mexico presidential elections, strong - 13E corporate results, and renewal of the pact among government, business, and labor +47.9 helped lift share prices 19% (figure 6). +28.4 Traded volume doubled to about $500 mil- n+15.3.9 +13.951zL +86 lion in August. Elsewhere in the region, Ar- gentina's market was up 16%, Chile's 19%, Peru's 30%, and Venezuela's 25%. Asian stock markets continued to rise in +55.0 the third quarter (up 16%). After several +36. months of sharp declines, China's share +26.7 n +18.7 prices surged 98% in August and 65% for the _ _ quarter. The cause of the increase was the an- nouncement that new A-share listings would - - - be suspended this year and that foreigners +69.0 would be allowed to trade A-shares through +63.6 joint ventures with local security houses. Pos- itive investor sentiment spilled into the B- | +11.0 0.5 +16.9 share market, and the H-share market also improved. Source. nternational Finance Corporation data NOVEMBER 1 994 11 EQU]TY PORTFOL./O ANDC FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 3rd count for a reported 70-80% of the market stocks. According to Citibank, 184 new pro- Quarter turnover. Foreign investors are favoring the grams were launched in the first nine months 1994 oil and gas, power generation, and metals of 1994, compared with 96 in the same pe- FCG price index, oercentoge sectors. Prices of some energy enterprises riod a year ago, boosted by emerging-market changein US$ have risen by factors of 20-25. Lack of a reg- issuers (which raised $8.4 billion through 76 Since one Since last ulatory framework and investor protection ADRs). Indian companies set up 29 new pro- year ago quarter could inhibit long-term foreign investment, grams, Brazil and Mexico each established -23.0 +64.8 however. Investors are concerned about the 16, and Ghana, Pakistan, Peru, and Sri Lanka absence of adequate financial disclosure, of launched first-time programs. At 5.2 billion central depository and clearing systems, and shares, trading volumes for DRs in the first of information on trades. nine months of the year were 21% higher Elsewhere, Turkey's stock market was than in the same period a year ago. Typically, higher (by 17%) in the third quarter due to listed DRs are more actively traded than un- strong company results and progress on the listed DRs; larger issues are also likely to see government's privatization program. Zim- greater trading. babwe's market rose 14% in the third quar- ter, for a total gain of 38% in the first three * CAUTIOUS MARKET SENTIMENT AFFECTS quarters. Polish shares, boosted by domestic PRICING AND TERMS retail investors, ended the quarter higher (by Despite improved share performance in the 12%), but on an uneven trend. third quarter, international equity investors remained cautious. Equity issues by emerg- ing-market firms rose to $4.9 billion, fueled NEW EQU ITI ES, QUASI - by privatizations of telecommunications and EQUITIES, AND DERIVATIVES energy companies, sectors favored by in- vestors (figure 7). Issuing activity was led by * IN THE SECOND QUARTER US INVESTORS Brazil, which raised about $400 million from CONTINUED TO DIVERSIFY INTO FOREIGN, the sale of shares in the privatization of Usim- INCLUDING DEVELOPING-COUNTRY, EQUITIES inas, a steel company. Pakistan raised $900 US investment in emerging markets slowed. million on sales of 10% of the government's US investors purchased a net $1.3 billion of stake in Pakistan Telecommunication Cor- equities from developing countries in the poration through an international offering second quarter (according to US Treasury of five million vouchers exchangeable for data), following first-quarter purchases of shares. The Philippine government sold 20% $2.7 billion. US pension funds added an es- of a fuel oil distribution company, Petron, timated $22 billion to overseas investment in through a domestic and international IPO of the first half of 1994, bringing total foreign almost $400 million. Indonesia raised nearly holdings to $284 billion (according to Inter- $1.05 billion through the sale of shares of In- Sec Research Corporation). Most of the in- donesian Satellite Corporation in October. crease ($17 billion) was in equity holdings, This was the country's first privatization with although these holdings grew by $5 billion an international offering. less than in the second half of 1993. US pen- Although volume in the new-issue market sion funds have steadily increased their for- was higher, weak conditions resulted in gen- eign investments. At the end of 1993 an erous pricing and a scaling back of issues, estimated 7% of their holdings were invested with many being postponed or canceled. The overseas, compared with 5% in 1992. new-issue discount on the local share price As US investors continue to diversify into for Indian GDRs widened to 30% on investor foreign equities, depository receipts (DRs) sensitivity to price. Mexican issuers DESC remain a popular way to invest in non-US and Grupo Sidek scaled back the interna- 12 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EQUITY PORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT tional tranche of their offerings by nearly Following a recent relaxation of rules, Ko- TABLE 6 half and raised local allocations, and Elektra rean companies may now list overseas, and DEVELOPING postponed its offering. several companies are seeking foreign list- COUNTRIES' BEST- With investors more conscious of com- ings. Pohang Iron and Steel's $300 million CLOSED-END pany fundamentals, Chinese issuers strug- offering is the first Korean depository receipt EQUITY FUNDS Percent gled. Compared with H-shares in the first to be listed on the NYSE. The issue was priced Average wave of issues, those in the second wave are at a premium of over 28% and was substan- return experiencing more difficult market condi- tially oversubscribed. Market 1994Q3 tions. Luoyang Glass saw prices drop sharply The equity-linked bond issue market con- Brazil (4) 57.95 Latin America (1 7) 22.61 on post-issue trading. The issue by Shanghai tinued to be subdued. South Africa's Liberty Malaysia/Singapore (7) 20.66 Haixing Shipping was postponed because of Life was forced to reduce the size of its debut Emerging global (20) 17.28 Mexica (3) 16.81 weak demand. Shares issued on the New York euroconvertible bond ($320 million) to Thai and ( 1 2) 16.19 Stock Exchange by the power company Shan- below its planned range. Two issues that were Africa (3) 15.47 dong Huaneng are down by more than 20%. well received were a three-year, $403 million Chile (5) (2 13452 A $625 million IPO by Huaneng Interna- convertible offering by Mexico's Cemex and Phiippines (5) 12.79 tional Power, the second Chinese power a 10-year, $350 million convertible by Asia(22) 19.746 company to list on the exchange, met with Telekom Malaysia. Portugal (6) 9.66 weak investor demand. China (13) 9.41 U STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS SNAP OUT OF ~~~~~Turkey (2) 9.30 Latin American issuers were active during n STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS SNAP OUT OF ndia ( 0) 6.45 the quarter, raising just under $2 billion. FIRST-HALF SLIDE Emerging Europe (4) 5.86 Indonesia (1 3) 5.66 After restrictions for Chilean companies on Stock mutual funds (US) posted third-quar- Viet Nam (2) 2.29 issuing ADRs were eased earlier this year, ter total returns of 5.8% because of broad- Note: Figures in parentheses are number of funds in category. more companies began offering ADRs: the based gains, according to Lipper. The Source: Lipper International Closed- quarter saw four Chilean ADRs. Smaller reversal in performance was particularly End Funds Service, Latin American countries also were active in marked for emerging-market funds, which raising capital abroad. Peru's Banco Wiese soared 16.8% following a first-half slide of had a $51 million ADR offering in August, in 12.6%. The gain in this sector was led by the first international equity issue from the Latin American funds, with a huge 29% re- DEVELOPING- country. And a proposed offering of the Bo- turn transforming them from the worst-per- COUNTRY FUNDS: livian government's stake in the electricity forming to the best-performing funds (tables DISCOUNTS AND distributor Cochabamba Light and Power 6 and 7). Several new closed-end funds were PREMIUMS has generated strong investor interest. launched in the quarter, raising $1.1 billion. Percentage difference between net asset value and share price * FUNDS TARGET SMALLER EMERGING Percentage FIGURE 7 difference INTERNATIONAL EQUITY ISSUES BY MARKETS Largestdiscounts DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Investors seeking exposure in newly liberal- Thai Asset Fund Ltd. -38.48 US$ billions Thai Prime Fund Ltd. -36.00 izing small-capitalization markets with per- Geness Ch le Fund Ltd. -35.69 12.2 U Other ceived high upside potential fueled fund Thai-Asia Fund Ltd. -31.78 C Asia activity. The fledgling stock markets of the Malaysia Equity Fund Ltd. -30.01 Latin America Middle East and North * ~~~~~~Largest premniums ll*Latin America Middle East andNorthAfrica(Egypt,Jordan, Indonesia Fund Inc. 41.51 Morocco, Oman, and Tunisia) attracted Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund Inc. 38.99 fund activity. A North African investment Turkish Investment 4.0 4-9 fund for institutional investors, the Maghreb Fund Inc. 37.94 ____________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Beta Viet Nam Fund Ltd. 25.45 I i | Fund ($30 million), was launched in Septem- Korea Fund Inc. 21.82 ber. It will invest in companies listed on ex- Note. As of September 30, 1994. 1993 1994Q2 investing in stocks was announced~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Sorc Lipe Itenatonl loed changes in Morocco and Tunisia. A fund End Funds Servce. 1993 1 994Q2 1994Q3 investing in Egyptian stocks was announced Source. uro.oone5 Bondoare and Wodd Buank in October. The closed-end New Egypt Fund NOVEMBER 1 994 13 EQU TY PORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT is hoping to raise up to $30 million to invest without having to actually hold the underly- in local securities. ing security. However, derivative activity is Eastern European and Central Asian eq- limited to the well-developed cash markets of uity markets also saw new fund activity. A Latin America and Southeast Asia, and, fund investing in Czech stocks raised $66 mil- within these markets, to the liquid stocks. lion. The Czech Republic Fund will make at Trading volumes in debt derivatives least 65% of its investments in Czech stocks surged from $15.3 billion in 1992 to $57.4 bil- and the rest in other Central European mar- lion in 1993 (according to the Emerging kets. Japanese investors purchased most of Markets Traders Association). In 1993 the the shares, although US investors also pur- traded value of options on developing-coun- chased a significant amount. The closed-end try debt instruments was less than 5% of the Fleming Russia Securities Fund raised $55 trading volume in the underlying cash mar- million for investing in shares of newly priva- ket. Higher volatility in the underlying cash tized Russian companies. market in 1994 is believed to have increased Elsewhere, a new Viet Nam fund, the derivative activity. fourth since 1991, has been launched. The Templeton Vietnam Opportunities Fund has raised $105 million. Because Viet Nam does FDI AND PRIVATIZATION not have a local stock market, funds have been investing capital through foreign joint- U RECORD HIGH FDI FLOWS TO DEVELOPING venture companies. Also launched was a COUNTRIES debt-equity conversion fund, the Peru Priva- As global foreign direct investment revived in tization Fund, investing in Peruvian state- 1993 after a two-year slump, developing owned enterprises that are being privatized. countries received record flows of such in- Among larger-capitalization markets, an vestment. At over $65 billion (net), flows to announcement by the Republic of Korea developing countries were nearly 40% that it would raise the ceiling on foreign greater than 1992 levels, and their share of share ownership has prompted a new Korean worldwide FDI flows was larger at one-third. fund. The Korean Golden Gate Fund plans Like portfolio investment flows, FDI flows to raise $100 million. A fund dedicated to in- tend to be concentrated in the dynamic vesting in Chinese companies and compa- economies of Asia and Latin America. At $26 nies doing business in China also was billion, China led developing-country FDI re- launched in the third quarter. Japanese in- cipients and accounted for much of the in- vestors bought the bulk of the $795 million crease in FDI flows. By contrast, Eastern closed-end Templeton Dragon Fund. Europe, where there is a general trend to- ward treating foreign and domestic investors * GLOBAL INVESTORS FUEL DEVELOPING- equally (although the incentives Eastern Eu- COUNTRY DERIVATIVE ACTIVITY ropean countries offer to foreign investors Desire for exposure to emerging markets vary widely), received a modest $5 billion. and the need to hedge risk in these markets Africa received only $1.8 billion. are boosting international investors' de- Countries have increasingly relied on FDI mand for emerging-market derivatives. In to finance infrastructure projects. Privatiza- several markets regulatory constraints, such tion in developing countries and the transfer as foreign ownership limits, trading and con- of new infrastructure activity to the private vertibility restrictions, and weak settlement sector have propelled foreign investment in systems, provide an impetus to the growth of infrastructure. With developing-country in- equity derivatives. Through equity deriva- frastructure spending projected at $200 bil- tives investors gain exposure to the market lion annually (according to the World Bank's 14 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EQUITY PORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT World Development Report 1994), countries ing. Elsewhere, the Philippines also is mak- looking to modernize and expand telecom- ing progress on its privatization program. munications, utilities, and transportation fa- The (partial) privatization of Petron Corpo- cilities seek new ways to attract sizable FDI. ration, through sale to a strategic partner, a Several countries have recently eased stock offering to employees, and a public of- entry conditions in the telecommunications fering, is being followed by a similar plan to sector in hopes of attracting significant in- privatize the Manila Hotel. Morocco, which vestment and foreign technology. In mid- has privatized 12 state-owned enterprises this September India announced guidelines year, is planning to sell stakes in several more under which private firms, including foreign companies. India's divestiture program also ones, would be allowed to enter the local is moving forward, with the announced par- telecommunications sector. Under the new tial sale of an additional seven state enter- policies, companies are limited to providing prises. Foreign investors will be allowed to local networks, and foreign companies can participate in the sale. In July the Czech Re- hold up to a 49% share in such companies. public began its second wave of privatization. Operating licenses will be awarded for 15 Argentina has announced an acceleration of years; each of the 18 designated regions will asset sales. permit only one private local carrier to com- After a gap of four years, Chile's privatiza- pete with the existing state facility. China's tion program is being revitalized. State- recent decision to allow a second telephone owned companies will be sold on a network to operate alongside the state case-by-case basis, with power companies and monopoly also provides opportunities for utilities expected to be targeted for sale. Also foreign investment. In Brazil the state in the region, the Venezuelan government, in telecommunications company, Telebras, is an attempt to reinvigorate its privatization leasing networks and facilities from private program, announced a new schedule for the companies under the recently announced sale of state-owned enterprises. Nicaragua is partnership program. looking to sell 40% of its stake in the national telecommunications company, Telcor. * PAKISTAN LAUNCHES ITS PRIVATIZATION Elsewhere, the South African government PROGRAM, AND CHILE REVIVES ASSET SALES announced a shift in favor of selling state as- Pakistan launched its privatization program, sets. After a delay, Poland's privatization pro- selling part of the government's stake in the gram is making headway, with 460 national telecommunications company companies approved for sale. Slovakia has through a domestic and international offer- approved several projects for privatization. SECONDARY MARKETS FOR DEVELOPING-COUNTRY DEBT * INVESTORS SEEKING HIGH YIELDS dominate the secondary market in emerging- BOLSTERED 1993 TRADING VOLUMES market assets. Trading in new bond issues Emerging-market trading volumes more was $177 billion. Buoyed by the conclusion than doubled in 1993, to $1.98 trillion, ac- of a Brady arrangement in April 1993, Ar- cording to the Emerging Markets Traders As- gentine instruments led with traded volumes sociation Survey. A widening base of of $544 billion. Other widely traded instru- investors with a short-term focus and seeking ments included those from Mexico ($465 bil- high returns bolstered this market. At more lion), Venezuela ($287 billion), and Brazil than $1 trillion, trading in Brady bonds ($259 billion). Trading in Moroccan, Nige- (which had a market capitalization of over rian, Polish, and Russian instruments also $90 billion at end-1993) jumped fourfold to was heavy. NOVEMBER 1 994 15 SECDNDAFRY MARKlETS FOR DEVELOPiNG-COUNTRY DEBT These high levels are likely to be main- narrow range around 10%, considerably tained in 1994, according to LatinFinance's below the April record high of 32% (accord- recent survey of major banks. Own-trading ing to J.P. Morgan's emerging-market bond numbers of 16 banks in the survey show first- index, EMBI). The monthly volatility of sev- half trading volumes of developing-country eral key bond instruments, such as Brazilian debt to be more than $900 million. and Venezuelan Bradys, remained high. The continued dominance in this market of in- * LOCAL FACTORS STRENGTHEN THE vestors interested in short-term gains and the MARKET FOR DEVELOPING-COUNTRY DEBT relatively small presence of investors with a Although US interest rate developments re- long-term focus fueled volatility. main a key factor in moving the developing- Brazilian debt instruments strengthened country debt market, domestic events in in the third quarter because of the perceived Brazil and Mexico were important in the continuing success of the anti-inflation plan, third quarter. Positive investor sentiment sur- the realplan, and presidential candidate Car- rounding the Mexican and Brazilian presi- doso's lead in the polls. Brazilian pars rose to dential elections tended to offset the effect of 44 cents to the dollar in the third quarter, volatile interest rates. Debt prices were lower compared with 40 cents at the end of the sec- in July and August before rebounding in ond quarter. Mexican issues were lifted by September, but remained belowJanuary lev- strong corporate results and increased els (figure 8). Spreads also tightened. In the prospects of victory for the ruling PRI in the third quarter spreads on Brazilian Bradys August elections. Pars rose 5 cents to 68 cents tightened by nearly 300 basis points to about in the quarter, but fell on postelection profit- 880 basis points. Those on Mexican pars nar- taking, ending the quarter at 66 cents. rowed by 130 basis points to about 335 basis Venezuelan pars were volatile because of points at end-September, and Argentine pars concerns about the ability of the govern- saw spreads falling 70 basis points to 665 basis ment's stabilization plan to control inflation points in the quarter. and the deficit. At 51 cents, Argentine pars Third-quarter monthly market volatility edged up. in the Brady bond and loan sector was in a Among the potential debt restructuring countries, Peru saw a 12% (of par) jump in FIGURE 8 prices on economic fundamentals and hopes SECONDARY MARKET PRICE INDEX, FEBRUARY 1990- of faster progress on a Brady-type agreement SEPTEMBER 1994 following the resolution of a disputed bank Februcry 1990= 100 250 loan (Peru's congress voted to include an old shipping loan in the commercial bank debt 200 negotiations). At 60 cents to the dollar, Pe- ruvian debt has recovered from the April col- r \ lapse in prices, but is still below its January -so . , peak of 70 cents. Elsewhere, Panamanian Brady par bonds debt shot up on investors' anticipation of a near-term conclusion of a Brady-style debt re- duction operation. Progress on a debt restructuring agree- so -- ------------------- - ---- --------- -------------- - ------m ent between Russia and its com m ercial bank creditors lifted loans administered by o Vneshekonombank from less than 30 cents ' __I _-[g_[§1 _~1 I ~ i to the dollar to 39 cents in the third quarter. Source: Table A.6. The conclusion of creditors' selections for 16 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SECONDARY MARKETS FOR DEVELOPING-COUNTRY DEBT Poland's debt restructuring helped to raise in the third quarter. According to J.P. Mor- debt prices by 2 cents to end the quarter at gan's Latin Eurobond Index (covering $11 37 cents to the dollar. Bulgaria and Ecuador billion of new bonds), third-quarter total re- saw lower debt prices. turns of nearly 3% partially offset the 7.2% Mirroring the trend in the restructured first-half decline. For the first nine months of debt and loan market, the secondary market the year, returns on new issues were well for new issues (the aftermarket) also revived below those on US stocks (1.3%). OFFICIAL FLOWS: MULTILATERAL AND BILATERAL MULTILATERAL FLOWS 231 projects valued at $15.8 billion. It ap- TABLE - proved $599 million (up 58% over the previ- SUMMARY MEASURE * WORLD BANK PLANS WIDER USE OF OF TERMS OF COVER ous year) m mvestment for mfrastructure BY MAJOR EXPORT GUARANTEES TO BOOST PRIVATE projects, mainly in Latin America and Asia, CREDIT AGENCIES CAPITAL FLOWS where economic reforms have opened the Score Score MLTh STt In September the World Bank announced sector to private firms. At $579 million, ap- Chile 82 85 plans to expand the use of financial guaran- provals for capital market investments were China 87 79 tees provided to private sector lenders. The 66% higher than a year ago. Colombia 71 7i Czech Republic 80 80 expanded use of guarantees supplements the Romania 77 89 existing program-Expanded Cofinancing Tunisia 71 75 Operations (ECO)-that, since 1989, has BILATERAL ODA Argentina 60 78 provided partial guarantees for borrowing in AND EXPORT CREDITS Hungary 61 72 9 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Indonesia 68 70 the credit or capital markets to obtain matu- Philippines 66 74 rities longer than otherwise available. The * ACCELERATED COFINANCING FACILITY FOR Russia 60 59 EXIM JAPAN LOANS ~~~~~~Turkey 63 66 new proposal offers guarantees against non- EXIM JAPAN LOANS Zimbabwe 61 76 commercial risks, such as the risk of the pub- In August the Export-Import Bank of Japan Ghana 59 55 lic sector's failing to fulfill its contractual reached an agreement with the World Bank India 58 83 Morocco 59 77 obligations. The move is designed to pro- on establishing an Accelerated Cofinancing Pakistan 58 84 mote the flow of private capital to projects, Facility. The facility will simplify and stream- South Africa 59 57 Venezuela 51 82 especially infrastructure projects, in develop- line the procedures for cofinancing by the Algeria 20 83 ing countries. At present the Bank has out- Bank and EXIM Japan. Under the facility, Brazil 35 66 standing financial guarantees of about $1 EXIM Japan will provide untied loans of up Bulgaria 30 45 I ran 24 5 4 billion in private sector lending to develop- to Y5 billion (approximately $50 million) per Mexico 47 84 ing countries. project. The cofinancing will be provided Poland 47 84 In approving the wider use of the guaran- mainly to assist infrastructure investment Cote d'lvoire 0 54 Kenya 9 32 tee authority, the Bank has also enhanced and environmental improvement projects. N geria 0 45 the ECO program. The guarantee fee struc- In the third quarter of 1994 EXIM Japan Peru 12 70 ture has been simplified and made more approved about $270 million in new untied Note: As of end-June 1994. a. Medium- to long-term. transparent, guidelines for country eligibility loans and guarantees to developing coun- b. Short-term. Source: World Bank and Berne have been simplified, and guarantees may be tries. Under its Fund for Development initia- Union data. offered on a stand-alone basis rather than tive, EXIM Japan extended a Y1O billion only in conjunction with a World Bank loan. (about $100 million) loan to Hungary, the first environmental improvement loan the * INFRASTRUCTURE AND CAPITAL MARKET agency has made to an Eastern European PROJECTS LEAD IFC LENDING country. Also under the initiative, EXIM The IFC approved almost $2.5 billion in fi- Japan extended a guarantee to a Y13 billion nancing for fiscal 1994, up more than 15% (about $130 million) syndicated loan by from the previous year. The financing was for Japanese financial institutions to Pakistan. NOVEMBER 1 994 17 DEET-r RELIEF UPDATE OFFICIAL CREDITORS 1988, funds the outstanding balances under revolving short-term credit arrangements * PARIS CLUB CREDITORS RESCHEDULE THE (RSTA debt), and deals with past-due inter- DEBT OF TWO COUNTRIES est. Menu options applied principally to eli- The Philippines and Sierra Leone signed gible long-term debt ($8.8 billion). About Paris Club agreements in the third quarter. one-quarter of the debt was repurchased at The Philippines obtained Houston terms, re- 41% of face value, just over 60% was ex- served for severely indebted lower-middle-in- changed for discount bonds (45 % discount), come countries (table 9). ODA debt will be and 10% was exchanged for par bonds. The repaid with a 19-year maturity and about 10 remainder was converted to fixed-interest years' grace; non-ODA debt will be repaid par bonds that were accompanied by pur- with a 14-year maturity and about eight years' chases of new-money bonds in the amount of grace. Sierra Leone signed its second agree- 35% of the sum converted. ment under enhanced Toronto terms, in ac- On July 30, 1993, the Russian Federation cordance with the November 1992 signed an agreement in principle with its agreement; it is one of the first countries to bank advisory committee, under which prin- sign the second-stage agreement. cipal outstanding as of December 31, 1992, and principal due during 1993 were to be rescheduled for 10 years' maturity, including COMMERCIAL CREDITORS five years' grace, on most repayments due. In addition, most interest payments and some C POLAND CONCLUDES ITS COMMERCIAL arrears were to be rescheduled. Some over- BANK DEBT ACCORD; RUSSIA REACHES AN due interest was to be paid in three install- AGREEMENT WITH COMMERCIAL BANK ments over October-December 1993. But CREDITORS the agreed payments of interest arrears were Poland completed its DDSR agreement with not made, and the agreement was not imple- commercial banks in October. The Polish mented. An important stage in negotiations debt reduction agreement provides relief on with the bank advisory committee was long-term debt that had been restructured in reached on October 5, 1994, when Russia signed with the committee an Agreement on ____________________________________________________________ the Legal Framework, under which the banks TABLE 9 have agreed to maintain Russia's sovereign PARIS CLUB RESCHEDULING AGREEMENTS, JANUARY- SEPTEMBER 1994 immunity with regard to the payments falling US$ millions due after restructuring. The banks agreed to Cutoff Consolidation accept the Vneshekonombank as the entity Country Dote Amount dote period through Type Kenya January 535 12/31/91 Arrears end-93 Standarda Senegal March 237 01/01/83 12/31/95 ETT the former Soviet Union. The October 1994 Niger March 160 07/01/83 03/3/95 ETT agreement cleared the main legal obstacles Cote d'lvoire March 1,849 07/01/83 03/3 /97 ETT Cameroon March 1258 12/31/88 09/03/95 ETT for the restructuring of commercial bank Central African Rep. Aprl 33 01/01/83 03/31/95 ETT debt; the financial terms of the London Club Bulgana Aprl 200 01/01/91 04/30/95 Standard Gabon April 1,360 07/01/86 03/31/95 Standarda rescheduling remain to be finalized. Algeria June 5,345 09/30/93 05/31/95 Standarda The DDSR agreement with the Domini- ERcusador June 7293 I /01 /83 12/31 /94 Houston can Republic closed on August 30.The agree- Jordan June I ,147 01/01/89 05/3 1/97 Houstona ment with Ecuador is expected to close by the Congo June 1,175 01/01/86 05/31/95 Houston end of 1994. Debt reduction operations for Philippines July 586 04/01/84 12/31/95 Houston Sierra Leone July 42 07/01/83 12/31/95 ETT Sa6 Tome and Principe and Zambia were a. With graduated payments. completed under the IDA debt reduction fa- b. Special featuresc Source: World Bank data. cility in the third quarter. 18 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES COMMERCIAL BANK PROVISIONING AND CAPITAL ADEQUACY BANK CAPITAL ADEQUACY control expenses are also likely to enhance TABLE 10 banks' performance. RISK-WEIGHTED M US BANKS REPORT STRONGER SECOND- . . CAPITAL RATIOS QUARTER EARNINGS, AND UK BANKS SHOW A itability.IntErope resultsofUK banks agof Percent, June 1994 itability. Interim results of UK banks showed Te oa RETURN TO PROFITABILITY that first-half, pretax profits were up over the Tntoen (£) Large margins added momentum to US comparable period a year ago. The improved Barclays 7.0 11.I Lloyds 7.1 11.9 banks' earnings in the second quarter, even performance is largely a result of sharply Nat West 6.0 10.9 as trading profits were subdued. Net interest lower loan-loss provisions in the first six Fronce (Ffr)a margins widened to 3.05%, compared with months. High interest margins have helped BNP 5.6 9.5 Credit Lyonnais 4.4 8.3 2.97% in the previous quarter, as banks' de- banks to build strong capital ratios, and Paribas 7.8 9.0 posit rates increased less than the banks' banks' return on equitywas about 20%. How- Soci6teGen6rale 5.0 9.1 prime rate. The return on the assets of the ever, with loan demand remaining low, rev- Germony (DM)' Commerz 4.4 8.3 nine money center banks was 1.01%, up enue growth is subdued. Elsewhere, German Deutsche 5.7 11.3 slightly from the first quarter but lower than banks continue to show modest returns, and Dresdner 4.4 8.3 the 1.04% rate of a year ago. At 15.68%, the Scandinavian banks are returning to prof- Japean (Y)5 Dai-Ichi Kangyo 5.0 9.4 return on equity was also higher than first- itability. Sakura 4.8 9.5 quarter levels, but lower than a year ago. The InJapan weak land and real estate market Sumitomo 5.5 9.9 share of nonperforming assets contracted conditions continue to depress Japanese Bankers Trust 8.5 13.9 further, declining to less than 1%. With the banks' portfolios. The 21 major banks' non- Citicorp 7.1 11.6 J.P. Morgan 9.3 13.5 ratio of reserves to nonperforming assets at performing loans reached Y13.6 trillion a AsofDecember 1994 223%, banks arewell provisioned againstbad (about 5% of total loans) at end-March as b. As of March 1994. Source: The Banker, Salomon loans. banks accelerated debt write-offs. The Coop- Brothers; and IBCA. Better third-quarter results are expected erative Credit Purchasing Company, estab- as growing consumer loan demand and a re- lished to purchase banks' nonperforming vival of commercial and industrial lending property loans at discounts from face value, boost banks' earnings. Continued efforts to has purchased Y4.5 trillion of these loans. FINANCIAL BRIEF U THE PRINCIPAL SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR 1993 (to $133 billion) as these countries FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: CURRENT gradually emerged from recession, but flows into developing countries continued to rise DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS at a faster pace. Thus, the share of total Foreign direct investment flows to develop- source-country outflows reaching develop- ing countries grew rapidly in the 1990s, ing countries rose in the 1990s compared reaching over $65 billion (net) in 1993 and a with the late 1980s. The principal source projected $75 billion (net) in 1994. The countries have been investing primarily in surge of FDI flows into developing countries middle-income, rapidly growing developing in 1991 and 1992 took place against declin- economies. In contrast, low-income coun- ing flows worldwide, especially into high-in- tries-with the notable exception of China- come countries. Although the principal have seen the value of FDI from the principal source countries (France, Germany, Japan, source countries decline or remain stagnant. the United Kingdom, and the United States) saw their FDI outflows plummet from the * UNITED STATES peak in 1990 ($162 billion), their FDI out- Despite the US economic recession of the flows directed to developing countries con- early 1990s, US transnational corporations tinued to increase. FDI outflows from the (TNCs) actively invested abroad to catch up principal source countries rebounded in in the internationalization of their opera- NOVEMBER 1994 19 FINANCIAL BRIEF tions. Foreign direct investment oufflows from the United States reached a record $58 FIGURE 9 FDI OUTFLOWS TO DEVELOPING billion in 1993, making the United States the COUNTRIES FROM SELECTED world's largest source of FDI capital. About INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES one-fifth of these funds went to developing From United States, 1989-93 countries (excluding Eastern Europe and US$ b,lio. s Percent Central Asia). This represented a sharp in- !5 30 crease compared with the 9% share in 1987, 25 but a small decline from the peak of 26% reached in 1990 (figure 9). iO 20 Nominal US FDI stock in developing countries increased to about $99 billion in _I 1993 (on a historical cost basis), or 18% of 10 total US outward stock (figure 10). Most of this stock-70%-is located in Latin Amer- s ica, with two countries, Brazil and Mexico, ac- counting for 47%. Proximity to the United 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 States, access to natural resources, and the North American Free Trade Agreement, From Japan, 1989-93 which increased the attractiveness of Mexico US$ b!li§lns Percent to foreign investors, explain why Latin Amer- 25 ica is the largest recipient of FDI from the 20 United States. East Asia is the second largest recipient, Is with FDI stock valued at $16 billion in 1993. _ Indonesia, with over $5 billion in 1993, ac- _ counted for the largest share of FDI stock in s that region, with most of it ($4.6 billion) in petroleum. Although US firms have ex- 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 0 pressed a strong interest in investing in China, the US stock of FDI in that country From United Kingdom, 1989-92 was slightly less than $900 million, with about £ b.bcns Percent half in manufacturing activities. The stock of 3 20 US FDI in Eastern Europe and Central Asia 1i has increased sixfold in the 1990s, doubling 2 between 1991 and 1993 (from $877 million to in 1991 to $1.7 billion in 1993). However, it 1 _ is still slightly less than the value of the out- ward FDI stock in Malaysia, for example. _ _90 0 _ ' ~~~~~~1989 1990 1991 1992 U JAPAN TotalJapanese FDI outflows (on an approval From France, 1989-92 basis) fell significantly in the 1990s, and out- F _ _ b ________P__rcent flows to developing countries followed suit. Nevertheless, the decline in oufflows di- _ rected to developing countries (13%) was 0 0 much smaller than the decline in total out- 1989 1990 1991 1992 flows (47%) between 1989, when FDI out- SreWorld Bank staff estimates. 20 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVEIOPING COUNTRIES FINANCIAL BRIEF flows peaked, and 1993. In part, this reflects U UNITED KINGDOM FIGURE 10 the motivation of Japanese TNCs to access Despite an economic recession at home, OUTWARD PDI STOCK IN DEVELOPING rapidlygrowing markets, to reduce costs, and TNCs based in the United Kingdom have COUNTRIES FROM to retain or expand market shares in the face been active investors abroad, directing nearly SELECTED I NDUS- of appreciation of the yen against the dollar. 13% of their outward investments to devel- TRIAL COUNTRIES MostJapanese FDI outflows (about 68%) oping countries in 1992. Compared with the United States, 1993 have been directed to East Asia and the Pa- late 1980s, however, the value of FDI flows to l= 101W cific, where growth rates have been the high- developing countries has fallen by nearly half est in the developing world. China received in the 1990s. The United Kingdom's stock of nearly 40% of the outflows to that region in FDI in developing countries, valued at t 1993, compared with less than 10% in 1990. slightly above £14 billion in 1992, represents Indeed, China, which received about $1.7 bil- nearly 10% of its total outward FDI stock. lion in FDI from Japan in 1993, is one of the Latin America accounts for about half of handful of developing countries in which the United Kingdom's outward FDI stock, Japan, 1993 Japanese FDI more than doubled between with Brazil the largest recipient of these in- 1991 and 1993. Outflows to South Asia in- vestments. The investment in Latin America creased significantly in the 1990s (until is concentrated in natural resources, partic- 1992) from a very small initial base, reflect- ularly petroleum. For example, nearly 40% ing almost entirely investments in India. of the FDI stock in Brazil and 95% of the Japanese FDI outflows to other regions stock in Colombia is in energy. In East Asia, have been growing slowly. Outflows to Latin the second largest destination in terms of America and the Caribbean, for example, in- stocks, Malaysia accounts for more than half United Kingdom, 1992 creased by about 23% in 1993, but this in- the United Kingdom's stock. More than half crease came primarily from flows to Panama, the United Kingdom's outward stock in a "flag of convenience country." In both Mex- Malaysia is devoted to natural resources ico and Brazil (the largest recipients of FDI (agriculture and energy). Access to natural in the region) Japanese outflows declined in resources remains an important motivation 1993. of United Kingdom TNCs for undertaking The financial difficulties at home and the investments in developing countries. low profitability of investments in high-in- Germany, 1991 come countries that face competition from X GERMANY Japan appear to have strengthened the drive Oufflows of FDI from Germany declined in toward restructuring through FDI. These the early 1990s and those to developing cost-cutting, efficiency-enhancing efforts are countries increased only marginally. Be- accompanied by a drive to claim market tween 1989 and 1991 Germany's outward shares in large and rapidly growing stock of FDI in developing countries in- economies such as China. With the opening creased by about 7%. While most of that of Viet Nam and the continuing liberaliza- stock is located in Latin America, the Europe tion of FDI and trade policies in other coun- and Central Asia region experienced the 5 Africa F5 Asia tries in the region, the location options fastest growth, with a near doubling of its FDI * Europe and Central Asia facingJapanese firms have multiplied. This is position between 1989 and 1991. By contrast, Latin America particularly important in light of Japanese Latin America saw a small decline in its in- Midde East firms' strategies favoring the establishment vestment position before the stock of FDI re- Note: Data for UK nvestment n Afrca of networks of affiliates in Asia for the pro- covered to its 1989 level. Germany's stock of referto ub-SaharanAfrica(excludng duction of components and other interme- FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced a So-rce:WorldBankstaffestmates. diate products. In producing final output, steady decline during the 1990s, with disin- these affiliates usually engage in consider- vestments causing that stock to decrease by able intrafirm trade. nearly a quarter. The stock of German FDI in NOVEMBER 1994 21 FINANCIAL BRIEF East Asia has risen in the 1990s, but only creasingly favored developing economies as marginally. locations for their investments. These coun- German TNCs are focusing on Europe tries have concentrated their investments in and Central Asia as sites for production facil- the rapidly growing economies of Asia and ities. The proximity of Eastern Europe and Latin America. For some source countries, Central Asia and the close links with some of there appears to be a pattern of clustering the formerly centrally planned economies FDI in neighboring regions (such as have made that region the preferred location Japanese investment in Asia and US invest- for German FDI. However, Latin America ment in Latin America). This pattern is not (especially Brazil, which accounts for nearly pronounced for some of the source coun- half of that region's stock) and, more re- tries in Europe, however (for example, UK cently, Mexico remain the dominant recipi- investment in Latin America and German ents of German FDI. investment in Latin America). Traditional links between home countries and host * FRANCE regions (such as France in Africa) appear to Despite the overall fall in FDI outflows from be breaking down as companies from the France, those to developing countries in- principal source countries seek opportuni- creased by about 13% in 1992 to reach about ties to supply the largest or fastest-growing Ffr 4.3 billion. The Europe and Central Asia markets. region was the largest recipient, receiving With economic recovery in the principal over three-quarters of the total outflows as source countries already under way or French companies establish production fa- beginning, parent firms are expected to be- cilities and seek new markets close to home. come less capital-constrained by the low prof- Sub-Saharan Africa, traditionally an impor- itability of their operations at home and tant destination of French FDI, saw the value hence be able to increase outward invest- of these investments (as well as their share in ments. Strong growth performance, cost con- total outflows to developing countries) fall siderations (combined with productivity and dramatically to about Ffr 35 million in 1992. quality standards), sizable local markets (par- ticularly in the less-tradable services), and on- I PROSPECTS going liberalization and privatization will In the 1990s the five principal source coun- make developing countries attractive desti- tries for foreign direct investment have in- nations for foreign direct investment. 22 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A. I BANK AND TRADE-RELATED NONBANK CLAIMS US$ millions 1 993Q4 Trade-related Bank Guoronteed nonbonk Country group or country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993Q2 Total claims claims claims All developing countries 723,524 765,893 806,823 843,995 863,775 860,720 707,784 108,329 152,936 Sub-SaharanAfrica 55,125 60,373 59,253 58,865 58,022 54,436 31,226 9,305 23,210 EastAsiaand Pacific 136,632 165,408 192,187 218,268 232,151 244,867 216,444 14,827 28,423 Europeand CentralAsia 157,439 184,089 189,401 188,905 194,535 188,744 156,725 33,498 32,019 Latin America and the Caribbean 258,312 238,612 244,398 257,154 257,632 258,655 225,101 26,737 33,554 Middle Eastand NorthAfrica 94,521 94,922 00,018 95,770 97,319 90,649 59,544 18,908 31,105 South Asia 21,495 22,489 21,566 25,033 24,116 23,369 18,744 5,054 4,625 Severely indebted middle-income 293,670 289,806 297,525 300,366 300.774 298,402 249,428 36,727 48,974 Albania 396 464 403 414 425 442 421 34 21 Algeria 20,285 21,014 21,805 18,740 18,740 18,143 15,247 9,138 2,896 Angola 2,168 2,370 2,680 3,415 3,167 3,201 2,046 1,018 1,155 Argentina 35,787 34,475 36,356 39,333 35,651 37,409 32,055 2,549 5,354 Bolivia 453 463 534 565 504 503 252 46 251 Brazil 77,887 76,167 71,931 74,525 75,994 74,751 66,490 3,883 8,261 Bulgaria 8,324 9,348 8,909 8,135 7,582 7,094 6,525 515 569 Cameroon 2,194 2,757 2,843 2,696 2,554 2,477 1,359 539 1,118 Congo 1,537 1,724 1,622 1.715 1,728 1,742 1,041 236 701 C6te d'Ivoire 4,186 4,379 4,042 3,9C7 3,594 3,565 2,276 300 1,289 Ecuador 5,202 4,773 4,553 4,198 3,987 3,925 3,332 309 593 Jamaica 983 975 737 749 714 721 463 134 258 Jordan 3,217 3,657 3,297 2,900 3,103 2,783 1,808 927 975 Mexico 75,507 62,684 72,485 75,821 79,214 79,543 71,394 12,003 8,149 Morocco 7,201 8,002 8,053 7,990 7,718 7,317 4,840 2,192 2,477 Panama 20,006 22,855 22,926 22,724 23,980 24,439 24,036 121 403 Peru 5,967 6,179 6,143 6,358 6,155 5,938 3,138 420 2,800 Poland 21,044 26,301 27,099 25,149 24,913 23,444 12,096 2,316 1 1,348 Syrian Arab Republic 1,326 1,219 107 1,032 1051 965 609 47 356 Severely indebted low-income 55.673 57,506 56,968 55,180 55,903 53,030 29,832 5,891 23,198 Moderately indebted low-income 48,304 59,231 63,346 73,927 74,729 74,882 62,273 9,352 12,609 Moderately indebted middle-income 146,918 155,178 155,838 161,780 164,322 162,825 139,857 36,455 22,968 Selected countriesa 236,512 259,745 283,024 312,619 325,632 335,283 285,126 35,119 50,157 Chile 9,880 9,823 9.149 11,195 11,512 11,424 10,559 640 865 China 26,682 34,430 4,1381 48,538 50,399 55,406 48,420 4,504 6.986 Colombia 8.841 8,889 8,479 8,843 8,982 9,085 7,886 1,251 1,199 Egypt 18,689 14,224 13,569 11,978 11,149 10,269 3.612 1,978 6,657 Hungary 12,219 i2,359 1 1,15 9,288 9,4 0 8,131 7,436 743 695 Ind a 15,950 15,640 15,383 18,578 17,391 16,813 14,123 3,014 2,690 Indonesia 25,507 34,850 39,773 47,064 49,083 50,122 42,507 4,031 7,615 Korea, Rep. of 31,503 36,2 6 41,820 44.733 47,581 47,499 45,725 1,493 1,774 Malaysia 9.141 9252 10.062 12,831 15,726 17,925 15,992 852 1,933 Nigera I 865 12.796 12,896 2,937 13,886 12,184 4,454 2,061 7,730 Phlippines 1 1,914 1 ,969 1 1,839 11,033 10,120 9,943 6,652 1,900 3,291 Tha land 2,376 18,035 24,953 30,522 34,569 37,381 33.896 1,452 3,485 Turkey 16,705 22,230 23,094 24,91 1 26,131 29.143 25,370 6,897 3,773 Venezuela 25,240 19,032 19,475 20,168 19,693 19,958 18.494 4,303 1,464 Offshore bankingcenters 89,226 1 16,422 121,921 141,037 144,553 153,01 1 148,313 4,127 4,698 Oi exporters 67,188 176,696 185.856 188,008 192,542 184,174 142,065 41,647 42,109 DRSreporters 122,416 132,264 139.563 142,218 144,867 138,685 108,592 39,173 30,093 DRS reporters 673,370 7 8,257 756,372 794,020 814,542 815,247 680,882 104,804 134,365 Note. See country c assifications at the end of statisscal appendix. a. Most of these countries are also included in the indebted country groups. Source: OECD; Bank for Internat onal Settlemerts, Stot,stics on Externol Indebtedness NOVEMBER 1994 23 5 U AT S!`:CAL APPENDIX TABLE A.2 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES US$ millions ClOims Liabilities Country group or ccuntry 1992 1993Q3 1993Q4 1994QI 1992 1993Q3 1 993Q4 1994Q I All developing countries 692,548 702,221 703,845 7 6,806 570,634 556,564 563,062 566,032 Sub-Saharan Africa 35,629 33,218 31,896 31,794 30,728 30,844 30,480 31,274 EastAsiaand Pacific 191,664 201,451 210,404 217,700 143,917 130,004 141,85 138,861 Europe and Central Asia 155,432 160,205 157,339 157,844 87,238 98,286 96,686 97,026 Latin America and the Caribbean 224,906 224,907 225,741 225,712 140,543 132,445 132,882 136,052 Middle East and North Africa 61,251 59,757 57,580 61,305 127,715 123,871 120,692 119,509 South Asia 23,666 22,683 20,885 22,45 40,493 41,114 40,47 43,310 Severely indebted middle-income 254,303 252,802 252,916 256,384 155,757 149,104 147,828 149,725 Albania 396 439 421 412 67 95 97 133 Algeria 13,968 14,514 13,668 14,335 3,128 3,571 2,859 2,532 Angola 2,113 1,917 1,782 1,79 748 441 474 487 Argentina 33,569 29,479 30,351 29,965 19,942 19,000 18,673 19,092 Bolivia 302 331 41 1 412 717 702 796 776 Brazil 64,132 67,926 68,957 70,414 26,843 26,074 25,983 26,1 12 Bulgaria 7,421 7,046 6,510 6,444 1,402 1,310 1,224 1,165 Cameroor 1,500 1,441 1,320 1,300 720 526 520 656 Congo 967 995 1,030 1,080 349 314 299 310 C6te d'lvoire 2,475 2,422 2,227 2,193 1,994 1,912 1,90 1,978 Ecuador 3,601 3,257 3,243 3,263 2,841 2,318 2,514 2,423 Jamaica 485 464 497 442 662 623 634 610 Jordan 1,832 1,612 1,575 1,453 6,878 6,484 6,246 5,971 Mexico 67,785 68,900 68,966 69,403 26,167 24,002 25,486 25,983 Morocco 5,239 5,002 4,952 5,154 5,723 5,771 5,806 5,738 Panama 31,339 30,889 31,193 32,060 40,890 39,741 37,835 38,843 Peru 3,388 2,995 3,157 3,309 3,904 3 855 3,883 4,074 Poland 3,093 12,544 12,051 12,343 7,522 6800 7,057 7,331 Syrian Arab Republic 698 629 605 611 5,260 5,565 5,541 5,511 Severely indebted low-income 29,982 29,472 29,546 29,750 5 1,412 51,965 52,977 54,093 Moderately indebted low-income 60,686 56,974 56,385 58,572 32,836 27,533 27,842 30.250 Moderately indebted middle-income 136,686 138,456 134,722 132,077 89,189 88 087 87,400 86,761 Selected countriesa 258,100 267,582 274, 113 280,542 194,258 183 780 197,311 195,6 1 7 Chile 10,121 10,337 9,967 10,379 6,783 7.267 7,961 8,419 China 42,676 43,206 48,391 45,762 49,012 40 854 49,567 46,544 Colombia 7,260 7,749 7,626 7,662 8,244 7,700 7,399 7,677 Egypt 4,269 3,804 3,530 3,518 22,327 25014 25,758 26,711 Hungary 8,648 7,925 7,503 7,486 2,840 2,216 2,292 1.618 India 15,456 14,1 16 13,945 14,941 6,847 7 129 7,709 9,138 Indonesia 40,084 37,443 37,192 37,990 18,028 13 046 12,604 12,324 Korea, Rep. of 42,653 45,882 45,1 12 47,387 15,421 15 502 IS, 62 5,091 Malaysia 1 1,094 14,127 15,975 17,827 12,657 16 121 19,328 17,981 Nigeria 4,563 4,099 4,133 4,054 4.371 4 581 4,595 4,574 Philippines 7,433 6,176 6,603 6,43/ 6,206 5901 5,811 6,174 Thailand 27,419 33,577 34,054 39,136 5,239 4,677 4,992 5,237 Turkey 17,844 21,178 22,717 21,858 14,577 13.707 14,767 3.419 Venezuea 18,580 17,963 17,365 16,108 21,706 20065 19,366 20,710 Offshore banking centers 1,037,956 1,109,178 1,084,424 , 127,871 951,490 954 079 920,128 944,499 Oil cxporters 161,616 [59,013 15 ,474 156.108 193,037 177 385 170,092 168,645 DRS reporters I 1 1,388 110,236 104,6 8 103,805 54,779 55 967 53,369 53,172 DRS reporters 773,654 788,918 795,950 806,079 599,497 588 732 597,802 597,760 Note: See country classificat ons at the end of statist cal appendix. a. Most of these countries are also ncluded in the indebted country groups. Sou-ce: Bank for International Settlements, Internationoi Banking and Financial Market Developments. 24 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.3 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN UJS$ miDions Fronce Germonyb Country group or country 1991 1992Q3 1992Q4 1993QI 1992Q4 1993Q3 i993Q4 i994Qi All developing countries 8 ,481 89.837 82.498 82, 164 138,151 145,712 142,984 147,652 Sub-SaharanAfrica 10,769 10,782 9,681 9,474 7,145 7,249 6,832 7,243 East Asia and Pacific 17,181 21,776 9,612 21,850 16,301 18,171 20,951 20,344 Europeand CentralAsia 16.932 18,917 8,251 16,736 61,446 65,998 62,229 63,646 Latin America and the Caribbean 17,290 18,371 7,260 16,693 33,038 33,577 33,580 33,447 Middle East and North Africa 17,371 17,467 5,524 15,269 11,724 12,013 11,594 14,246 South Asia 1,939 2,523 2,169 2,142 8,498 8,704 7,798 8,726 Severely indebted middle-income 31,421 32,253 29,694 28,356 39,022 39,070 38,524 38,809 Albania 66 63 44 69 .. Algeria 5,775 5.287 4,613 4,656 1,648 1,547 1,346 1,441 Angola 730 744 745 628 .. Argentna 2,335 2,298 2,350 2,099 7,357 7,SI0 6,776 6,872 Boliva 18 18 19 18 310 318 323 342 Brazil 7,885 8,292 7,693 7,447 0,656 10,408 11,041 10,675 Bulgaria 654 664 621 542 2,524 2,553 2,636 2,671 Cameroon 809 768 685 787 866 811 758 780 Congo 69/ 714 669 508 .. C6te d'lvoire 1,936 2,065 1.793 1,4 2 348 361 342 343 Ecuador 164 152 167 125 585 544 583 580 Jamaica 14 12 10 7 .. Jordan 1,020 1,095 746 740 514 435 411 434 Mexico 2,357 2,849 2,610 2,669 4,470 4,787 5,044 5,192 Morocco 2,199 2,296 2,157 1,986 1,129 1,112 1,039 1,086 Panama 2,530 2,596 2,623 2,627 1,473 1,736 1,669 1,695 Peru 640 629 57 508 1,014 943 996 978 Poland 1,321 1,425 1,308 1.288 5,607 5,472 5,045 5,192 Syrian Arab Repub ic 271 285 271 241 521 532 516 529 Severely indebted low-income 7,139 7,384 6,411 6,353 6,301 6.645 6,892 7,240 Moderately indebted low-income 4,866 5,623 4,988 5,092 1,142 1 1,704 12,049 12,452 Moderately indebted middle-income 12,704 13,445 12,854 1 1,298 47,993 52,068 49,104 49.522 Selected countries' 23,758 26,742 23,985 25,426 38,626 41,685 41 .798 41,054 Chile 437 539 543 513 1,651 1,717 1,716 1,702 Ch na 3,769 4,645 4,512 5.7 6 2,381 2,938 2,668 3,216 Colombia 512 575 589 624 1,054 1,167 1,205 1,30 Egypt 2,437 2,364 1,972 1,851 2 650 2,630 2,474 2,548 Hungary 217 175 153 144 3.668 3,375 3,191 3,588 India 1,362 1,783 1,451 1,328 5,367 5,556 5,472 5,660 Indonesa 2,537 2,692 2,431 2,541 3,70S 4,029 4,560 4,694 Korea, Rep. of 4,573 5,904 4,664 S,205 3,778 3,756 3,736 1,583 Malaysia 455 712 659 694 1,093 1,456 1,659 2,057 Nigeria 1,500 1,295 1,129 1 008 745 656 611 740 Philippines 1,389 894 8I1 731 506 596 704 615 Thailand 1,276 1701 .668 1,850 2,600 3,128 3,038 3,272 Turkey 1,928 2,077 2,093 2,072 6,828 7,891 8,166 7,737 Venezuela 1,367 .386 1,309 1,150 2,602 2,790 2,597 2,342 Offshore banking centers 35.166 42,766 40,286 38,450 66,516 76,717 77,246 77,864 Oil exporters 21,848 22,671 21,364 19,901 41,575 44,625 4 .399 44.246 DRS reporters 17, 14 17,633 16,221 14,136 38,616 41,410 38.268 38,941 DRSreporters 75,903 83,043 76,047 75,093 130,552 37,841 134,012 35,012 (tocble continues on next poge) NOVEMBER 1 994 25 STATiSTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.3 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN (CONTINUED) US$ rmi/lons Italy Netherlands' Country group or couritry 992 1993Ql i 993Q2 1993Q3 /99/ 1992 1993Q2 i 993Q4 All developing countries 18,164 17,876 18,095 17,99 18,713 21,011 22,343 22,824 Sub-Saharan Africa 8/8 825 800 814 820 819 i,140 1,106 East Asia and Pacific 84 70 65 7 4,021 3,577 4,217 4,218 Euirope and Central Asia 8,908 8,715 8,714 8,909 4,012 4,417 4,328 4,372 Latin America and tne Caribbean 5,452 5,358 5,372 5,060 7,280 9,5 12 10,307 10,334 Middle East and Ncrth Africa 708 622 672 677 1,934 1,782 1,715 2,027 South Aaia 2,145 2,285 2,472 2,459 647 905 636 768 Severely indebted middle-income 6,667 6,577 6,442 6,206 6,093 7,31 12 7,684 7,872 Albania ..88 89 93 . Algeria -.. .. 765 688 659 742 Angola . .. .. Argentina 1,657 1,699 1,631 1,566 1,029 1,439 1,668 1,425 Bolivia 5 5 5 5 . Brazil 827 754 780 776 1,321 2,003 2,234 2,772 Bulgaria 589 557 522 544 Cameroon . .. .. Congo . .. .. C6te dlvcire .2 1 3 1 0 1 9 Fcuad,or 167 157 154 164 301 257 352 360 Jamaica . .. .. Jordan . .. .. Mexico 1,579 1,591 1,597 1,401 1,853 2,168 1,990 1,704 Morocco 384 352 332 33 . Panama ......433 403 443 465 Peru 102 93 9 i 83 . Poland 1,3,5 .,268 1,231 1.225 392 353 339 404 Syrian Arab Republic . .. .. Severely indebted low-income 806 8 13 790 795 174 130 Moderately indebted low-income ..... . 3 18 1,659 1,799 1,768 Moderately indebted middle-income 7,713 7,403 7,496 7,6 13 3,596 4,753 5,114 5,347 Selected countries' 2,161 2,082 2,103 2,060 4,387 5,981 7,009 7,292 Chi e I 2i1 127 149 IS 398 668 708 625 China . 413 435 506 582 Colombia Il 131 145 88 277 537 636 6 13 Egypt . .. .. Hunigary 214 201, 95 202 . India Indoneaia ......1,318 1,659 1,799 1,768 Korea, Rep. of 467 775 694 670 Malays a ......... 264 Nigeria 806 813 790 795 . Philippines 84 70 65 7 . ,3 IS5 Thailand -.. .. 451 458 574 580 Turkey 545 73 1 1,013 ,308 Verezuela 786 739 758 753 517 719 8 15 831 Offshore banking centers 23.198 21,419 21,800 25.480 10,492 12,305 11,393 11,289 Oil exporters 7,891 7,624 7,670 7,822 3,1 55 3,984 3,739 3,237 DRS reporters 7,891 7,624 7,670 7,822 2,705 3,281i 3,140 2,834 DRS reporters 16,0 l9 15.502 1 5.535 1 5,438 14,91i1 17.813 8,943 19,282 26 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX Switzerlond United Kingdoma Country group or country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1989 1990 199 I Q2 1 991 Q4 All developing countries 20,610 24,563 24,212 24,642 53,007 45,643 42,708 46,7 7 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,431 2,972 2,468 2,215 7,435 7,084 6,531 6,766 East Asia and Pacific 1,787 2,117 2,904 3,517 5,267 5,50 5,739 6,839 Europe and Central Asia 7,442 8,262 7,283 5,569 10,649 10,155 9,005 9,736 Latin America and the Caribbean 6,379 7,870 8,195 9,458 23,623 16,856 16,271 17,475 Middle East and North Africa 2,169 2,768 2,836 3,164 4,459 4,347 3,644 4,203 SouthAsia 402 574 527 718 1,574 1,700 1,518 1,698 Severely indebted middle-income 0,629 12,455 12,018 11,974 24,203 17,796 16,768 17,849 Albania 139 83 62 62 .. Algeria 301 338 307 298 784 760 655 921 Angola 73 97 63 106 32 33 31 22 Argentina 1,207 1,414 1,471 1,604 3,343 2,352 2,244 2,738 Bolivia 10 12 2 16 26 8 .. 6 Brazil 2,197 2,862 2,812 2,821 6,890 4,694 4,226 4,104 Bulgara 444 482 445 248 532 473 209 233 Cameroon 46 6 SI 43 71 71 73 78 Congo 2 2 4 1 39 37 37 39 C6te d'lvoire II 104 1 1 100 292 247 148 155 Ecuador 72 107 25 132 750 546 542 514 Jamaica 3 21 8 8 69 68 63 71 Jordan 89 93 93 106 376 382 355 357 Mexico ,322 1.716 864 2,369 7,500 4,909 5,270 5,6 11 Morocco 103 SI 162 31 447 401 308 351 Panama 4,005 4,331 3,782 3,295 1,325 1,191 1,143 1,061 Peru 84 108 42 172 464 276 295 342 Poland 379 449 479 443 1,182 1,279 1,107 1,188 Syrian Arab Republic 35 23 15 19 81 69 62 58 Severely indebted low-income 975 2, 48 2,170 1,963 4,232 3,804 3,269 3,218 Moderately indebted low-income 691 1,023 902 1,253 2,776 2,917 2,775 3,420 Moderately indebted middle-income 5,748 6,431 5,633 4,655 10,511 9,501 8,596 9,129 Selected countries' 4,806 6,286 6,120 6,924 3,062 12,654 1 1,994 13.301 Chile 193 304 376 624 626 567 524 704 China 276 363 438 495 938 1,025 843 1,031 Colomb a 194 18 168 291 785 643 546 613 Egypt 454 504 416 383 629 650 582 594 Hungary 297 294 118 63 518 330 331 299 India 250 379 275 417 1,100 1,219 1,083 1.164 Indonesia 189 246 193 317 1,053 1,021 1,009 1.231 Korea, Rep. of 336 584 712 775 1,130 343 1.560 1,842 Malaysia 58 79 172 50 329 484 495 605 Ngeria 311 320 311 200 1,704 1,065 741 702 Philippines 199 178 144 121 956 797 736 717 Thailand 267 401 552 633 190 228 332 424 Turkey 1,202 865 1,579 ,617 892 142 1,156 1,134 Venezuea 579 587 665 839 2,212 2.140 2,056 2,241 Offshore banking centers 18,1 6 2 ,133 20.833 9,759 27,622 28,509 25,393 26,343 Oil exporters 6,294 6,381 6. SS 5,291 12,503 0,864 9,136 10,096 DRS reporters 4,305 4,612 4. 31 2,942 9,318 8,066 7,050 7,861 DRS reporters 23,062 27.053 26,129 26,172 49,093 41.055 38,079 41,917 (tsble continues on next page) NOVEMBER 1994 27 STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.3 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN (CONTINUED) US$ millions United Stostesa Country group or country i992Q4 1 993Q3 1993Q4 1994QI All developing countries 70,799 77,778 84,146 85,772 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,543 2,011 2,064 2,042 East Asia and Pacific 14,312 14,928 16,465 16,920 Europe and Central Asia 4,359 5,333 5,452 5,848 Latin America and the Caribbean 45,746 51,476 55,648 56,000 Middle East and North Africa 2,759 2,763 3,119 3,696 South Asia 1,080 1,267 1,398 1,266 Severely indebted middle-income 33,143 38,179 42,310 43,470 Albania AJgeria 486 499 533 618 Angola Argentina 5,777 7,344 9,742 9,157 Bolivia 18 29 30 46 Brazil 7,352 8,724 9,532 10,660 Bulgaria 32 53 99 124 Cameroon .. 16 15 14 Congo C6te d'Ivoire 18 16 40 35 Ecuador 457 463 491 489 Jamaica 147 148 143 133 Jordan 83 67 III 70 Mexico 17,277 9,160 19,561 19,892 Morocco 461 487 548 525 Panama 615 608 653 796 Peru 195 287 404 536 Poland 216 270 367 369 Syrian Arab Republic 9 8 41 6 Severely indebted low-income 1,010 1,1 13 1,301 915 Moderately indebted low-income 2,806 2,998 3,601 3,968 Moderately indebted middle-income 18,268 18,310 18,994 18,542 Selected countriesc 26,307 27,831 29,344 29,333 Chile 3,174 3,256 3,422 3,560 China 430 610 730 732 Colombia 1,940 2,027 2,196 2,267 Egypt 148 119 127 III Hungary 214 235 358 341 India 462 574 674 797 Indonesia 2,050 2,013 2,580 2,751 Korea, Rep. of 4,032 4,249 4,367 4,630 Malaysia 716 1256 1,257 1,342 Nigeria 297 295 458 181 Philippines 2,906 2,129 2,499 2.317 Thailand 1,807 2,431 2,529 2,603 Turkey 1,307 1886 1,849 1,983 Venezuela 6,824 6,75 6,298 5,718 Offshore banking centers 26,187 24,024 25,966 25,538 Oil exporters 10,054 10,233 10,364 10,270 DRS reporters 8,014 8,022 7,888 7,161 DRS reporters 67,539 73,769 80,776 82,224 .. Not available. Note: This table shows latest available data from each major creditor country. Recent data are not available for Japan. See country classifications at the end of statistical appendix. a. Consolidated claims of banks and their worldwide operatons. b. Partly consolidated aggregate claims of banks and their worldwide operations. c. Most of these countries are also included in the indebted country groups. Source: Banque de France, Bulletin Trimestriel; Deutsche Bundesbank, Zahlungsbilanzstatistik; Banca d'ltalia, Bolletino Economico; De Nederlandsche Bank, QuarteHy Bulletin; Banque Nationale Suisse, Les Banques Suisse; Bank of England, Statisticoi Abstract, Part l; Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, U.S. Country Exposure Lending Survey. 28 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES . T P Au .PPEN DIX TABLE A.4 MATURITIES OF BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES US$ millions 1993Q4 More than Less than I year and less More than Estimoted Short-term Country group or country /992 Total I yeor than 2 years 2 years Unaldocated short-term (% of total) All developing countries 587,388 594,046 316,775 43,461 209,855 23,955 275,975 46 Sub-Saharan Africa 32,415 28,779 15,969 2,368 9,330 1 ,112 13,734 48 East Asia and Pacific 151,997 167,675 108,006 10,516 41,579 7,574 98,987 59 Europe and Central Asia 147,695 142,627 64,110 14,790 56,922 6,805 49,326 35 Latin America and the Caribbean 187,381 189,765 94,848 8,984 79.285 6,648 87,174 46 Middle East and North Africa 53,171 50,555 27,638 5,714 16,322 881 21,673 43 South Asia 14,729 14,645 6,204 1,089 6,417 935 5,081 35 Severely indebted middle-income 212,000 212,775 105,384 13,262 87,398 6,731 93.933 44 Albania 382 410 377 0 24 9 376 92 Algeria 14,684 14,093 4,802 2,322 6,832 137 2,668 19 Angola 2,011 1,678 990 234 445 9 844 50 Argentina 30,261 30,357 5,968 713 12,221 1.455 15,302 50 Bolivia 220 249 198 8 23 20 188 76 Brazil 51,407 54,175 29,666 3,481 18,660 2,368 26,596 49 Bulgaria 7,638 6,682 4,347 423 1,751 161 4,029 60 Cameroon 1,424 1.191 520 138 514 19 400 34 Congo 747 675 343 67 260 5 296 44 C6te d'lvoire 2,452 2,103 1,638 60 365 40 1,529 73 Ecuador 3.043 2,829 1,580 249 956 44 1,425 50 Jamaica 549 401 180 23 149 49 152 38 Jordan 1,540 1,264 796 93 335 40 698 55 Mexico 53,879 55,257 26,035 2,384 25,285 1,553 24,025 43 Morocco 4,888 4,569 132 517 2,918 2 711 16 Panama 21,397 22,228 10,856 1,337 9,468 567 9,752 44 Penu 2,566 2,605 1,732 64 729 80 1,655 64 Poland 12,366 1 1,546 3826 1,120 6.429 171 2,903 25 Syrian Arab Republic 546 463 398 29 34 2 384 83 Severely indebted low-income 24,503 23,801 10,515 2,180 10,385 721 8,31 1 35 Moderately indebted low-income 43,813 45,297 25,13 4,028 14,601 1,537 21,913 48 Moderately indebted middle-income 130,095 125,1 1 52,846 12,231 56,448 3,586 41,699 33 Selected countriesa 214,172 228,771 127,696 6,217 73,703 1,155 113,044 49 Chile 9,699 10,035 5,254 489 4,192 100 4,838 48 China 30,198 32,538 14,933 2,541 13,063 2,001 12,815 39 Colombia 6,928 7.421 3,484 572 3,197 168 3,043 41 Egypt 4,129 3.467 2,008 426 881 152 1,651 48 Hungary 8,859 7,485 2,010 1,090 3,522 863 1,071 14 Inda I ,101 1 1,091 4,209 846 5,434 602 3,365 30 Indonesia 28.417 29,866 18,265 2,793 7,933 875 16,267 54 Korea, Rep, of 38,730 40,295 28,761 2,072 6,890 2,572 26,783 66 Malaysia 8,475 12,607 7,174 585 3,875 973 6,534 52 Nigeria 4,154 3,679 1,668 420 1,515 76 1,160 32 Philippines 6,874 5,633 2,236 343 2,887 167 1,854 33 Thailand 22,959 29,123 20,856 1,821 5,604 842 19,190 66 Turkey 15,455 19,383 12,229 1,712 4,025 1,417 10,261 53 Venezuela 18,194 16,148 4,609 507 10,685 347 4,212 26 Offshore banking centers 484,956 512.421 423,179 12,873 63.798 12,571 410,836 80 Oil exporters 132,598 123,616 56,885 12,990 52,065 1,676 44,399 36 DRSreporters 108,918 98,654 38,283 1 ,000 48,160 1,21 1 28,541 29 DRS reporters 573.979 585,442 305,770 42.3 14 2 5,829 21,529 267,272 46 Note: See country c assificaions at the end of statistical appendix. a Most of these countries are also inc uded n the indebted country groups. Source: Bank for International Settlements, The Motunty and Sectorol Distributon of international Bank Lending. NovK r, Ei I 99 i 29 STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.5 FUNDS RAISED ON INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS US$ millions Country group or countny 1990 1991 1992 1993 1993Qi 1993Q2 1993Q3 1993Q4 1994QI 1994Q2 All developing countries 31,900 39,979 40,391 76,137 15,008 16,298 19,206 25,626 19,813 16,669 Bonds 7,328 13,873 21,408 55,871 10,471 11 ,225 13,041 21,134 14,584 9,459 International 5,380 10,067 13,656 39,565 6,643 8,37 9,685 14,866 10,893 8,058 Foreign 1,948 3,806 7,753 16,306 3,829 2,854 3,355 6,268 3,691 1,401 Loans 24,572 26,106 18,983 20,266 4,537 5,072 6,165 4,492 5,230 7,211 International 23,872 25,875 1 8,737 20,069 4,512 4,999 6,066 4,492 5,230 7,211 Foreign 701 231 245 197 25 74 99 Sub-Saharan Africa 756 689 1,273 102 . 12 90 492 65 EastAsa and Pacific 14,808 18,228 16,687 27,541 5,206 6,317 6,391 9,628 9,649 8,885 Europe and Central Asia 10,247 7,191 9,642 20,264 5,921 2,857 4,949 6,537 2,535 3,407 Latin Amerca and the Caribbean 4,242 8,688 9,518 27,326 3,667 7,074 7,627 8,959 6,1 16 3,777 M;dde East and North Africa 128 4,861 3,070 337 216 50 72 .. 513 300 SouthAsia 1,720 322 201 567 155 412 509 235 Severely indebted middle-income 2,617 7,944 8,307 22,686 3,392 5,819 5,169 8,306 6,208 3,547 Albania Algeria . 61 . .. Angola I115 . 325 12 1.2 . Argentina 725 1,529 6,473 410 531 2,092 3,440 1,410 914 Bolivia I ' Brazil . 1,480 3,010 6,449 820 1,624 1,850 2,155 1,171 288 Bulgaria Cameroon 100 . .. Congo . . . 492 C6te d'lvoOre Ecuador .. .. .. . .. .. .. Jamaica . 30 .. Jordan Mexico 2,350 5,568 3,374 9,751 2,162 3,664 1,215 2,7 11 3,085 2.305 Morocco 52 60 Panama PerU . . .. . .. 40 40 Poland 5 9 .. .. Syrian Arab Republic .. Severely indebted low-income 385 105 96 72 72 65 Moderately indebted low-income 7,338 6,130 2,957 4,383 426 773 991 2,194 1,863 1,753 Moderately indebted middle-income 9,458 4,798 7,64 16,688 3,192 2,958 4,997 5,542 2,057 876 Selected countriesa 20,476 21,754 23,489 42,248 8,176 8,767 1 1,130 14,175 10,983 8,981 Ch;le 285 350 775 333 342 100 . 80 China 1,514 2,595 4,043 6,756 2,044 I,836 1.794 I,082 2,549 1,567 Colombia 200 . 621 56 325 240 250 150 Egypt Hungary 987 1,378 1,446 5,071 1,4 18 281 1,331 2,041 233 242 India 1,242 226 201 475 155 320 509 190 Indonesia 5,462 5,639 2,641 3,726 426 773 836 1,691 1,354 1,518 Korea, Rep, of 3,982 6,437 5,204 7,719 1,117 1,893 1,228 3,481 1,656 2,047 Malaysia 730 512 1,271 1,6 447 394 479 292 801 1,422 Nigeria Philippines 715 1,250 170 275 805 154 305 Thailand 1,465 1,907 2,718 5,550 951 1,132 1,701 1,767 2,637 1,451 Turkey 2,498 2,280 4,580 5,763 1,330 1,344 920 2,169 842 9 Venezuela 1,595 581 1,035 2,931 218 457 2,068 187 Offshore banking centers 4,634 2,491 2,058 9,476 1,786 1,288 910 5,492 1,362 1,745 Oil exporters 6,862 5,923 4,445 3,503 434 605 2,152 312 792 1,047 DRS reporters 4,961 1,018 1,460 3,157 279 485 2,080 312 492 300 OECDcountres 308,764 368,375 392,920 510,550 141,008 137,237 127,100 105,205 125,069 101,745 Multilateral institutions 15,418 15,000 20,874 20,71 1 7,930 3,157 5,583 4,041 3,042 2,019 Other 644 1,006 1,961 3,037 184 1,423 1,084 346 200 600 Totalb 36 1,489 432,470 458,275 6 19,986 165,925 159,442 153,908 40,711 149,487 123, 129 Not available. Note: See country classifications at the end of statistical append x. a. Most of these countries are also included in the indebted country groups. b. Inciudes all developing countries, offshore banking centers, OECD countres, multilateral institutions, and the category "other." Source: OECD, Finoncial Stotistics Monthly, Por I . 30 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.6 SECONDARY MARKET DEBT PRICES Percentoge offace value Country group or country 1992Q1 1992Q2 1992Q3 1992Q4 1993Q1 1993Q2 1993Q3 1993Q4 1994Q1 1994Q2 1994Q3 Severely indebted middle-incomea 37 39 39 37 37 44 42 56 25 44 46 Albania .. .. .. 5 5 10 12 16 Algeria 83 87 92 91 95 100 64 48 43 46 Angola 20 24 25 22 20 18 8 18 20 20 18 Argentina' 42 50 50 48 50 53 61 69 52 50 S l BoWvia 0 12 15 16 16 16 Brazil' 36 33 33 30 30 39 46 53 40 44 Buigana 8 17 6 13 14 21 26 41 35 48 45 Cameroon 13 10 12 12 13 14 13 15 23 16 17 Congo 4 5 6 6 6 B 9 9 13 13 13 Cote d'lvo re 8 9 7 5 6 8 13 18 20 18 19 Ecuador 22 30 27 28 27 32 34 52 40 40 33 Jamaica 74 74 74 71 76 79 76 76 85 83 83 Jordan 30 34 34 35 35 35 44 52 48 47 48 MexiCoe 63 65 66 65 70 73 76 84 69 63 66 Morocco 42 46 47 47 52 67 72 81 64 72 72 Panama 28 32 33 29 30 32 38 61 54 49 59 Peru 4 15 15 19 24 32 43 68 46 48 60 Poland 20 23 26 25 28 32 35 50 32 35 37 Other selected countries Chile 88 89 91 91 92 93 94 95 94 95 95 Costa Ricaf 51 59 63 60 64 68 75 82 69 66 66 Egypt 46 47 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 47 Honduras 27 31 33 35 31 31 31 3 34 39 36 Hungary .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Nicaragua 8 9 7 7 8 13 I0 0 9 8 8 Nigeria 39 40 34 39 42 42 53 60 42 40 39 Philippinesg S l 59 57 57 64 68 77 82 66 63 65 Senegal 38 37 .. .. 23 .. 32 38 34 31 36 Uruguaye 70 70 75 75 65 72 80 .. Venezuela' 58 63 62 57 59 68 70 74 49 49 49 .Not available. Note. Bid price. a. We ghted by commerc a bank debt outstanding (Syr a is not included in these ca culations). b. Guaranteed Refinanc ng Agreement (GRA). Prices after March 1993 refer to par bonds offered under the Brady in iative. c Multi-Year Depos t Facility Agreement (MYDFA). Prices after April 1994 refer to par bonds offered under the Brady initiative. d. Mu6t-Year Rennanc ng Agreement (MYRA). e. Prices refer to par bonds offered under the Brady nitiatve. f. Prices refer to Series A par bonds offered under the Brady initiative. g. Pubic sector restructured debt, sncluding Central Bankofthe Philippines. Prces referto restructured loans offered underthe Brady nitiatve. Source: Salomon Brothers, Euroweek, LDC Debt Report, intemntonrol Frenceng Review, and World Bank data. NOVEMBER 1994 31 Sl ATISTICAL APPENDiX TABLE A.7 EMERGING STOCK MARKETS Market capitalization Value of stock traded Price-earnings ratio (US$ mi'ions) (US$ millions) (percent) Economy 1 993Q4 1994QI 1994Q2 1993Q4 1994Q I 1994Q2 i 993Q4 1994Q I 1994Q2 Argentina 43,967 '41,569 41,291 3,069 4,309 2,284 49 32 27 Brazil 99,430 130,465 105,918 17,044 21,985 17,374 13 20 14 Chile 44,622 45,383 52,080 905 1,239 926 20 21 20 Colombia 8,755 14,330 13,595 255 576 512 26 32 3 Greece 12,319 13,521 12,475 1,004 2,103 1,035 10 12 10 Hungary 812 1,173 1,089 47 139 25 19 78 -73 india 97,976 110,653 127,865 5,079 7,453 4,280 40 43 37 ndonesia 32,953 31,479 32,315 3,681 3,695 2,215 29 24 23 Jamaica 1,469 1,495 1,491 99 22 64 7 8 8 Jordan 4,891 5,146 5,026 166 261 123 18 18 23 Korea, Rep. of 139,420 143,889 159,992 73,855 70,530 61,641 25 26 31 Malaysia' 230,093 176,816 185,130 72,902 39,002 18,605 44 35 33 Mexico 200,671 186,302 174,582 28,939 27,226 17,653 19 16 17 Nigeria 1,029 2,166 2,385 3 8 5 8 8 8 Pakistan 11,602 13,969 13,217 872 794 767 28 28 23 Peru 5,l 13 6,249 5,848 635 951 630 44 22 31 Philippines 40,040 34,980 40,574 3,081 2,744 2,621 39 33 30 Poland 2,706 4,888 2,612 1,071 2,560 1,015 33 37 21 Portugal 12,417 14,831 13,746 1,984 1,533 821 18 21 21 Sri Lanka 2,498 3,151 2,701 185 313 122 28 28 24 Taiwan(China) 195,130 [70,186 188,627 121,838 162,299 155,710 35 31 29 Thailand 130,510 105,120 1 5,730 40,772 26,225 14,244 28 22 22 Turkey 37,496 16,109 16,313 8,923 6,776 2,625 36 1 1 16 Venezuela 6,587 6,567 3,849 552 688 266 17 15 14 Zimbabwe 1,441 1,865 1,763 31 80 38 9 14 13 Total 1,363,947 1,282,302 1,320,214 386,992 383,51 1 305,601 642 635 453 .. Not available. a. Data for Malaysian-incorporated companies only. Source: Intemationa Finance Corporation, Emerging Stock Markets Foctbook. 32 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND TrlE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.8 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS US$ millions Country group or country 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993a All developing countries 0. 41.8 14,534.1 21 .204.4 24,710.2 26,339.8 36,876.4 47,267.5 65,915.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 684.5 1.392.9 1,1 33.8 2,607.9 856.0 1,774.0 1,613.5 1,756.9 East Asia and Pacfic 3,546.3 4,486.5 7,602.1 9,085.9 11,038.2 14,029.5 20,487.5 36,504.5 Europe and Central Asia 844.1 1,302.3 2,260.4 3,480.9 4,711.7 7,011.5 8,529.6 9,057.8 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 3,553.4 5,7772 7,999.2 7,082.8 7,668.9 12,374 6 14,506.5 16,152.0 Middle East and North Africa 1,253.0 1,167.9 1,882.6 1,965.8 1 595.7 1,2 1.2 1,5644 1,716.8 South Asia 260.5 407.3 326.3 486.9 469.3 475.6 566.0 727.9 Severely indebted middle-income 2,909.9 5,104.0 7,258.5 6,046.8 5,658.1 9,8 4.8 3,004.2 14,353.7 Albania 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Algeria 5.3 3.7 13.0 12.1 0.3 11.6 12.0 Angola 234.0 1 19.0 131.0 200.0 -334.8 664.5 288.0 Argentina 574.0 -19.0 1,147.0 1.028.0 1 836.0 2,439.0 4,1790 Boiivia 10.0 38.1 -10.1 -24.4 27.2 52.0 93 1 Brazil 320.0 1,225.0 2,969.0 1,267.0 901.0 972.0 1,454.0 Bulgaria 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 56.0 42.0 Cameroon 19.0 12.0 67.3 0.0 -62.3 -21.1 10 0 Congo 22.4 43.4 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 Cote d'lvoire 70.7 87.5 51.7 40.8 47.7 46.1 49.1 Ecuador 70.0 75.0 80.0 80.0 82.0 85.0 85.0 Jamaica -4.6 53.4 -12.0 57.1 137.9 127.0 86 5 Jordan 22.8 39.5 23.7 -1.3 37.6 -11.9 40.7 Mexico 1,523.0 3,246.0 2,594.0 3,037.0 2 632.0 4,762.0 5,366.0 Morocco 0.5 59.6 84.5 167.1 165.1 319.9 423 6 Panama -62.2 56.8 -51.7 36.4 -17.6 -40.3 -0 8 Peru 22.0 32.0 26.0 59.0 41.0 -7.0 127.0 Poland 16.0 12.0 15.0 1I 1.0 89.0 291.0 678.0 Syrian Arab Republic 65.0 7.0 1 21.0 74.0 71.0 62.0 67.0 Severely indebted low-income 1,360.6 1,889.7 1,691.3 3,477.5 1 764.0 1,254.8 1,6559 1,850.2 Moderately indebted low-income 512.3 727.9 863.5 1,161.1 1,502.1 1,906.6 2,225.5 2,577.4 Moderately indebted middle-income 2,001.5 2,315.4 3,595.9 3,490.3 4,210.5 7,650.3 7,787.8 9,274.0 Other selected countriesb 5,879.6 6,829.0 9,846.7 13,859.9 13,969.0 19,909.1 25,927.2 42,435.0 Chile 116.0 230.0 141.0 184.0 249.0 563.0 737 0 China 1.875.0 2,314.0 3,194.0 3,393.0 3,487.0 4,366.0 1 1,156.0 Colombia 674.0 3 19.0 203.0 576.0 500.0 457.0 790.0 Egypt 1,217.4 947.7 1,190.0 1,250.2 734.0 253.0 459.0 Hungary 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,462.1 1.479.2 India 118.0 212 0 91 0 252.0 162.0 141.0 151.0 Indonesia 258.0 385.0 576.0 682.0 1,093.0 1,482.0 1,774.0 Korea, Rep. of 435.0 601.0 871.0 758.0 715.0 1.1 16.0 550.0 Malays a 488.9 422.7 719.4 1,667.9 2,332.5 4,072.6 4,117.6 Nigera 166.8 602.7 376.9 1,882.3 587.9 712.4 896.6 Philippines 127.0 307.0 936.0 563.0 530.0 544.0 228.0 Thaiand 262.5 351.9 1,105.4 1,775.5 2,443.6 2,014.0 2.115.8 Turkey 125.0 115.0 354.0 663.0 684.0 810.0 844.0 Venezuela 16.0 21.0 89.0 213.0 451,0 1,916.0 629.0 Not available. Note See country classificat ons at the erd of statist cal appendix. a. Estimate. b. Most of these countries are also included in the ndebted country groups. Source Word Bank and Internat onal Monetary Fund. N%E vsMt31 F 1 9 94 33 STAtTISTICAL APPENDIX COUNTRY GROUPS East Asia and Pacific Former YLugoslavial Guatemala4 Tunisia* Ghana' American Samoa Gibrastar-4 Guyana* Yemen* Guinea* Cambodia** Greece** Haiti* Guinea-Bissau* China* Hungary* Honduras' South Asia Kenya* Fiji* Isle of Man Jamaica* Afghanistan4* Lesotho* Guam Malta* Martinique Bangladesh* Macagascar* Indonesia* Poland* Mexico' Bhutan* Malawi' Kiribati** Portugal* Nicaragua' India* Mali* Korea, D.P.R. o** Romania* Paraguay* Maldives* Mauritania' Korea, Rep. of* Slovak Republic* Penu* Nepal* Maurit us* Lao P.D.R.* Turkey* Puerto Rico Pakistan* Mayotte Malaysia* St. Kitts and Nevs* Sri Lanka* Mozambique* Marshall Islands Latin America and St. Lucia4 Namibia** Micronesia the Caribbean St. Vincent* Sub-Saharan Africa Niger* Mongolia* Antigua and Barbuda** Suriname** Angola* Nigeria Myanmar* Argentina' Trinidad and Tobago* Benin* Reunion New Caledonia** Aruba UrLJguay4 Botswana* Rwanda* Papua New Guinea* Belize* Venezuela* Burkina Faso* Sao Tome and Pnncipe* Philippines* Bolivia* Burundi* Senegal* Solomon Islands4 Brazil* Middle East Cameroon* Seychelles* Thailand' Chile* and North Africa Cape Verde* Sierra Leone* Tongs Colombia' Algeria* Centra African Republic* Somalia* Viet Nam** Costa Rica4 Egypt, Arab Rep. of* Chad* Sou-h Afrca** Western Samoa* Cuba** Iran, Islamic Rep. of' Comoros* Sudan* Dominicae Iraq** Congo4 Swaziland* Europe and Dominican Republic* Jordan* C6te d'lvoire* Tanzania* Central Asia Ecuador' Libya44 Djibouti* Togo* Aiban a* El Salvador* Morocco*4 Equatorial Gu nea* Uganda* Bulgaria* French Guiana Oman4 Ethiopia* Zaire* Czech Republic4 Grenada' Saudi Arabia** Gabon* Zambia* Former Soviet Union* Guadeloupe Syrian Arab Republic' Gambia, The* Zimbabwe' Severely indebted Peru Liberia Moderately indebted Moderately indebted middle-income Poland Madagascar low-income countriesa middle-income countriesab Syrian Arab Republic Ma i Bang adesh countries' Albania Mauritan a Comoros Chile Algeria Severely indebted low- Mozambique Gambia, The Colombia Angola income countriesa Myanmar Guinea Costa Rica Argentina Afgharistan** Nicaragua India Dominican Republic Bolivia Burundi Niger Indonesia Gabon Brazil Cambodia* Nigera Malawi Greece44 Bulgaria Central African Republic Rwanda Maldives Guatemala Cameroon Egypt, Arab Rep. of Sao Tome and Principe Nepal Hungary Congo Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone Pakistan Papua New Guinea Cote d'lvoire Ethiopia Somalia Togo Philippines Ecuador Ghana Sudan Yemen Russian Federation Jamaca Guinea-Bissau Tanzania Zimbabwe Senegal jordan Guyana Uganda Tunisia Mexco Honduras Viet Namri Turkey Morocco Kenya Zaire Uruguay Panama Lao P.D.R. Zamba Venezuela Offshore banking Macao** Brine Saudi Arabia** centers' Netherlands Anti lest4 Congo4 Trinidad and Tobago* Bahamas Panama* Former Soviet Union* United Arab Emirates Bahrain44 S ngapore Gabon* Venezuela* Barbados4 Vanuatu* Iran, Islamic Rep. of* Bermuda Iraq** Cayman slands Oil exporters Libya** Hong Kong Algeria' N geriau Lebanon* Angola* Oman' Liberia' Bahrain* Qatar * DRS reporter. ** Non-DRS economy. The remaining countres include selected high-income and non-OECD middle-income countnes. The Debtor Reporting System (DRS), set up in 1951 to monitor statistics on the externa debt of developing countries, is maintained by the staff of the Debt and International Finance Division of the World Bank's Internationa Economics Department. The Worlc Bank is the so e repository for these statistics on a loan-by-loan basis. Note: Country group composition has been modified to reflect the annuai updating of GNP per capita and related debt indicators. a Al countries in the group are DRS reporters, except those for wh ch it is otherw se indicated. b. Indebtedness critera are consistent with those appearing in the WoHrd Debt Tab/es 1993-94. c. 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