TANZANIA URBAN RESILIENCE FY 17 PROGRAM TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iii ABOUT 1 ACTIVITY SUMMARY 5 PILLAR 1: Risk Identification 6 PILLAR 2: Risk Reduction Measures and Planning 19 PILLAR 3: Emergency Preparedness and Response 27 Resilience Academy 33 Small Risk Reduction Actions Grant (Challenge Grant) 36 Government-Executed Risk-Reduction Grant 37 Program Management 38 RESULTS 42 RISKS 48 LOOKING AHEAD 51 FINANCIALS 55 ANNEXES 58 TANZANIA URBAN RESILIENCE PROGRAM ANNUAL REPORT FY17 This publication is a product of the staff and consultants of the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the executive directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This note is created by The World Bank and available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CCBY3.0) license. This guidance note is intended to be a live document and is subject to change without notice. Cover photos: Chris Morgan Chapter art: Emelie Andersson Design: Latif Amars  ACRONYMS AA: Administration Agreement M&E: Monitoring and Evaluation ASA: Advisory Services and Analytics MKUKUTA-II: National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction BETF: Bank-Executed Trust Fund MoU: Memorandum of Understanding CDRT: Community Disaster Response Teams NEMC: National Envrionmental Management CERC: Contingency Emergency Response Council Component PA : Programmatic Approach CTTL: Child Activity Task Team Leader PO-RALG: President’s Office – Regional COP: Community of Practice Administration and Local Government DarMAERT: Dar es Salaam Multi-Agency Emergency PDNA: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment Response Team RETF: Recipient-Executed Trust Fund DfID: United Kingdom’s Department for International Development RMI: Risk Management Index DMD: Disaster Management Department SC: Steering Committee DRF: Disaster Risk Framework SOGDAT: Support to Open Data and Accountability in Tanzania GA: Grant Agreements TAHMO: Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological GFDRR: Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Observatory Recovery TF: Trust Fund GFR: Grant Financing Request TTL: Task Team Leader GIS: Geographic Information System TURP: Tanzania Urban Resilience Programme GoT: The Government of Tanzania UAV: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle GPSURR: Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience Global // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Practice UNA: Urban Natural Assets ICLEI: Local Governments for Sustainability USSD: Unstructured Supplementary Service Data IGAD: Inter-Governmental Authority on Development WBG: Word Bank Group IPF: Investment Project Financing KPI: Key Performance Indicator iii // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017  iii 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “ “Natural and human disasters are the most serious threats to social and economic development. We must improve resilience in cities and rural areas for the current inhabitants of Tanzania and for future generations to come.” – Brigadier General Msuya, Director, Disaster Management Department, Tanzania Tanzania is the most flood-affected country in East Africa, and cities across the country are underprepared to manage their increasing exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards. Contributing to this heightened risk, Tanzanian towns and cities have undergone massive and largely // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 unplanned spatial expansions. In Dar es Salaam, an estimated 75% of residents live in unplanned settlements and in Mwanza, approximately 81% of households are located in hazard-prone areas. In response, the Tanzania Urban Resilience Program (TURP) was established as a partnership between the Government of Tanzania (GoT), the World Bank Group, and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to support national and local governments in strengthening management of urban climate risk. This challenge calls for systematic mainstreaming of risk management principles across government and civil society stakeholders operating at community, municipal, and national levels. iv  Launched on May 31, 2017, TURP is now driving renewed An 18-month work plan was presented to the first TURP engagement and deeper dialogue between the Bank steering committee (SC) meeting in November 2016 and and GoT on climate resilience. Program objectives progress on actions is currently on track. A total of over include support for tools, knowledge, and strengthened USD $4.6 million was allocated in the period between capacities for climate resilience across all urban areas, July 2016 and June 2017. These funds address three whilst also developing deep-dive engagements in Dar priority pillars, including (1) risk identification, (2) risk es Salaam, including the preparation of a flood risk reduction, and (3) disaster preparedness and emergency management project in one of the cities most vulernable management, as well as the development of a virtual river basins. Such targeted engagements aim to deliver Resilience Academy and provisions for overall program exemplary risk-reduction plans and mitigation measures administration and technical design. TURP now has that will serve as a template for other cities. an extensive portfolio of child activities, ranging from community-led ground surveying, to supporting urban TURP is already oversubscribed with requests for support emergency coordination, and the installation of new from interested secondary cities, including Dodoma, instruments for stream monitoring. Notable achievements Mwanza, Kigoma, and Zanzibar Town. In addition to have included: these requests, the program design must strike a balance between supporting long-term planning processes and • The launch of a scaled-up and government- responding to short-term shocks and events. approved Open Map (Ramani Huria) campaign, focussed on identifying community infrastructure One such shock was the earthquake of 5.9 magnitude and flood hazards, to serve as a foundation for that struck the region of Kagera in September 2017, various processes critical to TURP success, including resulting in 19 casualties and 253 injured. The damage (i) baseline data in community and ward level was most devastating in the town of Bukoba, with 840 risk-planning activities; (ii) partnerships for local houses destroyed and a further 1,264 seriously damaged, government authorities; and (iii) skills building and leaving thousands homeless. This event highlighted the course content. lack of seismic resistance of structures within fast-growing towns, the limited preparedness of local and regional • Engagement of the Trans-African Hydro- emergency management systems, as well as the means Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) to instrument of local governments to measure indirect losses. the Msimbazi River for flood model calibrations and, in parallel, demonstrate a flood alert pilot system and A key objective of TURP is therefore to support the transfer skills to local schools and universities. introduction of modern methods for quantifying disaster // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 risk, and the spectrum of potential impacts in order to • Support for the Dar es Salaam Metropolitan build greater resilience into the urbanization process. Development Project to develop a Contingency Emergency Management Component (CERC). During the past year, the Bank team has worked Emerging from this, and responding to a request on revising the program structure accordingly, now from Dar es Salaam regional authorities, TURP addressing priority actions in risk identification to serve funding has also served to develop an updated as key baselines. FY17 has also seen the establishment of Emergency Response Plan for the Dar es Salaam the administration and staffing of TURP, consultation with Multi-Agency Emergency Response Team stakeholders, and convening of government counterpart (DarMAERT), in conjunction with the delivery, committees. v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY installation, and training of emergency radio transfer schedules. equipment, which has expanded the coverage of the Important risks to the success of TURP have been communications network across the metropolitan highlighted. These primarily relate to the effective area. engagement and strengthening of interconnected • A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) prepared sets of institutional actors involved in risk management for a Resilience Academy, to be jointly developed systems. It additionally remains important to maintain between Ardhi University and the World Bank. strong coordination mechanisms with the government Existing methods and skills for resilient urban and support risk-reduction champions in both policy planning have been documented and developed making and technical roles. There is also a risk of over- into accredited course materials for a Bachelor’s level extension of human and budgetary resources and curriculum. In support of this, a data model and suite lock-in to program concepts that may lack the flexibility of fit-for-purpose risk-assessment tools have been to respond to new shocks as they arise. TURP work plans defined. With a view to ensuring sustainability of and priorities should therefore be carefully reviewed and TURP outputs and lessons learned, all data, software, adjusted periodically. In light of a USD $7.7 million cut and training materials associated with these tools will announced in June 2017, as well as a depreciation of the be transferred to academic partners for reuse. TURP UK pound against the US dollar, some revisions and a has therefore adopted criteria for “open access” and reduced scope of activities are projected for the latter part “locally replicable” by default for the assessments of 2017. and tools to be developed. The next steps of TURP will focus on two major elements: A strategic objective of TURP has further been to developing the Dar es Salaam Flood Risk Management develop an in-depth risk-reduction program for the Project based in lower Msimbazi communities lower Msimbazi River Basin to address urgent needs and strengthening the institutional system for risk in the flood-prone area. Consultations and technical identification and management. A major increase in studies have begun, however, the total basin needs are disbursements is anticipated next year as the program expected to significantly exceed available resources moves from primarily analytical and consultative activities and will require a longer timeframe for engagement towards funding works and operational services. than is envisaged under TURP. The approach developed The priorities for the Msimbazi Basin are now to transform therefore proposes to fund priority works in targeted the consultative process into a participatory design communities whilst also formulating a basin-integrated process, taking technical inputs from experts as well as // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 risk management plan that aims to crowd-in additional local stakeholders to develop a series of investment investments and serve as a model for other flood-prone plans. A grant agreement with the GoT is anticipated for urban basins. 2018 to implement this plan. Key reforms to TURP undertaken in the first year related to membership of the Steering Committee and creation of a Technical Advisory Committee, adjustment of planned activities in response to budget reductions, improved cost estimations, incorporation of government feedback and requests, and the restructuring of the trust fund (TF) administration agreement to conform to new fund vi HIGHLIGHTS  PUBLISHED Print + digital format 3200+ online impressions to date Ramani Huria Atlas of Informing project + government Flood Resilience actions LAUNCHED 200+ government officials from TZ URTZ: Building Urban Resilience in 16 honourable guests + 10 CSO representatives Tanzania 75 journalists from 42 African countries PROTOTYPED Locally developed consumer application Twaa Mtaro app for risk reduction 20+ community leaders trained on use Emergency radios installed ESTABLISHED Draft Plan produced for Dar Draft Emergency es Salaam // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Response Plan Coverage increased from 50% to 100% PREPARED 300+ students trained in resilience planning MoU with Ardhi 35 wards to be mapped for risk University identification Commitment to develop Bachelor’s curriculum vii // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017  1 2 ABOUT ABOUT “ How can data be kept up to date so that the best decisions can be made? How do we reduce the risks in light of so many competing challenges? How can we cope with disasters when they occur? This program will create multi-stakeholder partnerships with a goal of taking the best approach to these questions - Edward Anderson, TURP TTL, World Bank The objective of the TF is to support national and local governments in Tanzania to strengthen the management of climate risk in cities. Higher-level objectives to which the program contributes include: // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Increasing Resilience to Climate and Disaster Risk: TURP supports the GoT in implementing a program that promotes climate and disaster risk management in the wider context of sustainable development. The proposed engagement is aligned with and directly addresses the GoT’s priorities on growth, the environment, and climate adaptation outlined in the second National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (known as MKUKUTA- II Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza Umaskini Tanzania). Similarly, the activities directly support the strategic objectives and interventions in the National Climate Change Strategy, Zanzibar Climate Change Strategy, and Disaster Management Act 2014. 2  Promoting Shared Prosperity and Ending Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Extreme Poverty: Climate change and adverse (GFDRR) and UK Aid from the Support to Open Data natural events have the greatest impact on the poorest and Accountability in Tanzania (SOGDAT) program, populations who generally live in higher-risk areas and known locally as Ramani Huria (the Open Map) and Zuia have a diminished capacity to recover from disaster. In Mafuriko (Stop Flooding) campaigns. TURP funding has the case of Tanzania, even frequent, low-intensity events been allocated to validate and scale up many of these such as a heavy rainfall can have crippling and cumulative precursor programs in an operational role. effects on livelihoods and communities of the bottom (b) Pillar 2 – Risk Reduction 40%. Impediments to development gains as a result of climate hazards that particularly impact the poorest Guided by data and management tools of Pillar 1, Pillar communities can be minimized by reducing the exposure 2 strengthens cities’ capacity to plan for and reduce to hazard events and decreasing the vulnerability of the climate risk through the use of both structural and non- poor to climate disturbances. structural measures addressing long-term systemic risk. In partnership with government entities, civil society, and the private sector, activities supported focus on the Description of program activities reduction of the vulnerability of people, households, The activities financed by the TF are: and communities. This is be accomplished by providing analysis of non-structural measures, such as creating Bank-executed activities, for which the Bank has or improving policies and legislation, better land use implementation responsibility: planning, environmental protection and basin plans, (a) Pillar 1 – Risk Identification hazard zoning and building codes—and the design of risk-reduction works, such as drainage upgrades, This pillar strengthens the identification and ponding schemes, slope stabilization, and retrofitting understanding of climate risk and uncertainty in the local or reinforcement programs. The activities support context, and enhances the linkages and coordination communities, planning, and works authorities with the between risk management stakeholders. To make development of a pipeline of investments reducing decisions that ultimately strengthen physical, social, and urban risk. These investments support the resilience of financial resilience, a thorough understanding of disaster critical infrastructure and specifically target measures and climate risks in the local context and their implications aimed at protecting priority river basins and improving are vital. This informs decision makers about the risks flood management infrastructure. they face and the drivers of those risks. As such, Pillar 1 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 increases access to comprehensive information about physical and societal exposure to climate risks, which inform implementation of structural and non-structural mitigation measures. Pillar 1 builds upon complementary Bank-led work such as the Building Community Resilience in Tanzanian Cities project that has been supported by both the 3 ABOUT (c) Pillar 3 – Disaster Preparedness and Recipient-executed activities, for which one or more Emergency Management recipients have implementation responsibility: Pillar 3 helps stakeholders involved with short-term These actions have not yet begun in the TURP program, disaster events and preparedness for specific emergency but shall focus on the government implementation scenarios. Also guided by Pillar 1 data, Pillar 3 scenarios of of activities designed to: (i) mainstream and scale up city risk can be used to establish good practices around data, tools, equipment, skills for effective climate risk identifying and preparing vulnerable groups, emergency management, including community-driven works, response plans and design of early warning systems, projects, and small grants; and (ii) larger engineering requirements for equipment, tools and infrastructure, structures for flood risk reduction, basin management, simulations, drills, and damage assessment capacities. drainage enhancements, and early warning systems. Stakeholders in this workstream are concerned with civil protection, disaster management, community volunteers, ALLOCATION OF TURP PROJECT coordination for response, and recovery actions. PILLAR FUNDS IN FY17 (d) Resilience Academy Thematic content of the Resilience Academy spans across risk identification, risk reduction, and emergency 15% management, such that is it embedded as a knowledge- $570,000 transfer function within the activities of Pillars 1 through 31% 3. Nevertheless, consultations throughout the first year $1,220,000 of implementation have shown a high level of interest 12% $480,000 assigned by local stakeholders, so the Bank proposes to report explicitly on this activity as a coherent workstream. The concept of Resilience Academy is an evolving virtual program anchored in both universities and training institutes and delivering digital curricula, practical experience, training courses, and laboratory equipment to support surveying, maintenance, risk monitoring, and 42% $1,630,000 analysis activities. Its goal is to enable a legacy for skills and tools developed through TURP and enhance the sustainability of risk management practices and datsets in Pillar 1 Pillar 3 Tanzania. Pillar 2 Resilience // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Academy 4  ACTIVITY SUMMARY Pillar 1: Risk Identification // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 3 5 ACTIVITY SUMMARY BANK EXECUTED GRANTS PILLAR 1: Risk Identification “ “Without maps you cannot understand the problems. Where are the issues? How big? What will be affected? Even after the disaster occurs, what was there before? So for us, maps are the history, maps are the future plans, maps are almost everything” – Elizabeth Mrema, Assistant Director of Mapping, Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlement Development, Tanzania Objective To strengthen the identification and understanding of climate risk and uncertainty in the local context, and enhance the linkages and coordination // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 between risk management stakeholders. Overview of Progress During the first half of FY 2017, the objective and structure of Pillar 1 were finalized and approved by both World Bank management and DfID. Activities to be implemented under this heading were discussed and solidified as part of the first SC meeting in November 2016. These activities were prioritized over FY17 as their outputs were expected to further inform initiatives of Pillars 2 and 3. 6 Bank Executed Grants at scale. URBAN EXPOSURE One primary focus for TURP has been to evaluate the MAPPING DATA SERVICES Ramani Huria pilot project conducted in Dar es Salaam The first step in risk identification is developing up-to-date during 2015 – 2016. Ramani Huria was a community- hazard and exposure data and baselines. Exposure is the driven mapping project that used OpenStreetMap situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production as a new and low-cost alternative to traditional land capacities, and other tangible human assets located in surveys, aiming specifically to demonstrate the ability of hazard-prone areas .1 students to collect very local infrastructure, drainage, and household data as well as the value of community inputs A key part of the risk management challenge in Tanzania on inundation area and flood impacts. TURP convened is the pace of urbanization, with some wards growing an experts review group during November 2016 to serve over 20% per year and many secondary towns lacking as an advisory panel on what lessons could be drawn any baseline data at all. The goal of this activity has from Ramani Huria for community risk identification and therefore been to consolidate available building and broader baseline data collection. population data within the Dar es Salaam region and pilot simple, cost-effective methods to acquire exposure data TURP also supported the first Dar es Salaam Flood Inundation Atlas for 10 wards at the same time and 1 UNISDR, Terminology for Disaster Risk Reduction: https://www.unisdr. org/we/inform/terminology sought feedback and reviews from ward officers as well Ward Executive Officers share Ramani Huria challenges and use cases // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Credit: Darragh Coward - World Bank 7 ACTIVITY SUMMARY Ramani Huria Atlas of Flood Resilience and maps in a ward office Credit: Darragh Coward - World Bank as community focus groups. of Ramani Huria for Dar es Salaam, a similar project was initiated under Urban Exposure Services following The insights derived from the Ramani Huria review the September 10, 2016 earthquake that struck process have led to the design and competitive the town of Bukoba. As requested by the Disaster tendering of a Ramani Huria 2.0 program for 2017 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Management Department, a geospatial support team – 2019, which incorporates more rigorous hydraulic, was deployed in December 2016 via TURP funding socioeconomic, and urban planning data model to assist in collecting and organizing urban exposure requirements as well as improved quality assurance data and mapping regional facilities and town layouts. and local government partnership. This scale-up was This was accomplished with the help of 10 Ardhi requested by the Regional Administrative Secretary and University students working remotely to digitise local presents a key success in establishing a value proposition area maps. The immediate objective was to compile a for local communities and authorities together. georeferenced and up-to-date baseline of urban assets In parallel with the lessons learned and review process (building footprints and critical facilities) from which 8 Bank Executed Grants Geospatial team and community members surveying damage from Bukoba earthquake Credit: Daud Fufuji - World Bank Atlas of Reconstruction in Bukoba // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 9 ACTIVITY SUMMARY Credit: Sensefly the damage assessment could be developed and reconstruction planning based. Under the Urban Exposure umbrella, FY17 additionally prioritized a survey of the lower Msimbazi Basin using an eBee Plus UAV, an activity conducted by Swiss surveyors. These data are intended to support inundation modelling, exposure mapping, and land use and land cover. Later in the year, the project acquired two of these drones and trained local surveyors and consultants in their use for urban watershed and exposure mapping work to complement other in-situ based mapping methods. The equipment is subject to an asset handover plan with the local Ardhi University when project mapping activities are completed. A pilot project to map and monitor via satellite Dar es Salaam’s urban density changes and level of informality across the entire 1600km2 of the region was further commissioned in April 2017 to run for nine months. eBee drone used for aerial mapping Credit: Frederick Mbuya - World Bank The goal of this activity has been to test whether new satellite constellations capable of imaging on a daily basis can produce low cost, cloud-free mosaics of urban expansion with sufficient resolution to enable automated classification of urban densification. The service will show whether in the peri-urban wards of Dar es Salaam, where urban growth is between 10% – 25% per year, a simple metric of Floor Space Index 2 can be monitored in a standardized and reliable fashion on a periodic // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 basis (quarterly). These satellite data are currently at 3 – 5 meters resolution, which is insufficient for detailed urban mapping and flood modelling, but can represent a means to monitor urban hotspots across all Tanzanian cities in a systematic manner and could act as triggers for more detailed in-situ surveys. The results of the pilot Ramani Huria Atlas of Flood Resilience will be evaluated in year two and a decision whether to and Maps in a Ward Office expand as an operational service for secondary cities 2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floor_area_ratio 10 Bank Executed Grants will be made following expert review and stakeholder Over this reporting period, expert consultants reviewed feedback. existing elevation models and identified a high-value dataset within the Ministry of Lands, and a 25cm resolution dataset of orthophotos and elevation data for ELEVATION MODEL 4300km2 of Dar es Salaam. This dataset will provide for When designing TURP, it was envisaged that a detailed both digital surface model (including heights of buildings elevation model would be necessary to develop a and structures) and digital terrain model (measuring the quantitative evaluation of expected losses from flood ground levels without vegetation and buildings). The in Dar es Salaam, complemented by an accurate stock digital terrain model is expected to be a foundational dataset for flood modelling and risk assessment across the city. Further UAV aerial mapping of transport corridors and other infrastructure in Dar es Salaam has been planned for October 2017. INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENTS AND RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX In FY17, it was determined that TURP would fund support services for the development of a Risk Management Index (RMI), to be used in setting a baseline and tracking progress in institutional improvement for risk identification. A draft institutional capacity assessment was completed in January 2017 for Dar es Salaam- based agencies in emergency management and response. This assessment found that despite the establishment of DarMAERT as a key step towards an improved emergency response in Dar es Salaam region3, Number of new buildings detected the primary regional agencies dealing with disaster // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 in each planet mosaic from change management need further assistance to improve their detection analysis performance and collaboration amongst each other. The of exposure buildings, facilities, and concentrations of top five challenges to be tackled are noted in the report people and businesses. Since both the available data to be: 1) low awareness; 2) insufficient training; 3) poor layers as well as the actual demographics and urban coordination; 4) limited equipment; and 5) lack of staff. dynamics of the city are subject to change over the Further assessments are expected to be undertaken as lifetime of the program, these databases seek to be the program progresses over the next fiscal year. as open, low-cost, and reproducible as possible, thus 3 Interviewees highlighted the existence of the DarMAERT as the main maximizing scalability across Tanzania. strength Dar es Salaam Region has for emergency response. 11 ACTIVITY SUMMARY INVENTORY OF DISASTER Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank AND LOSSES The structure of this pillar has taken into account the value of a robust inventory of historical events that records losses to people and property, and persons affected. The first year TURP faciliated an Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) training workshop, conducted in collaboration with the DMD, on different approaches to disaster loss inventories as well as Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) methods. The training familiarised participants with the Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank importance of establishing such inventories and has led to further requests for support from the Government in this area. The Bank is coordinating with GFDRR to ensure that this work is either delivered through their current engagement or through TURP. HYDROLOGICAL DATA STRENGTHENING FOR CLIMATE RISK Responding to a need for the strengthening of hydrological data, collaborative efforts are being taken to improve documentation, cataloging, and availability of hydromet data, and skills of weather station maintenance. An expert mission was therefore fielded in February 2017, resulting in the requirements definition for, and // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 selection of, the TAHMO. TAHMO was contracted to develop pilot projects, in coordination with Tanzania Met Authority and the Ministry of Water, to plan for the procurement and placement of Msimbazi weather stations and stream flow instrumentation. Work began in August 2017. As part of the TAHMO contract, Delft University will deliver training and technology transfer in late 2017 and 2018. Delft will additionally demonstrate an enhanced flood event forecasting system based on improved data Community members participating in and recommend early warning opportunities. the installation of weather stations 12 Bank Executed Grants PROBABILISTIC FLOOD catchments with up-to-date data. RISK MODEL FOR DAR ES Whilst delivery of this model is anticipated for year two of the program, the design specification process has already SALAAM begun. Deltares flood consultants were contracted A metropolitan-wide flood loss evaluation has never to define the flood data model parameters for such a been conducted for Dar es Salaam and is considered a probabilistic model that could be collected using Ramani critical foundation upon which risk-reduction planning Huria methods. Typologies were created for waterways, and investment decisions can be made. In 2017, TURP tunnels, walls, buildings, and highways of varying values presented the work carried out by Anchor Environmental and characteristics. Work now remains on building Consultants during 2014 – 2016, which included a typologies for other hazards relating to climate risk. Two flood loss model in the Msimbazi catchment. The report key criteria stand out that characterize this modelling estimated average annual losses of USD $47 million per effort: i) a data model that is compatible with readily year due to flooding. The authors also urged caution, available or easily updatable local data; and ii) a design however, and concluded: that allows for local visualization, scenario generation, and output analysis. “Due to the limited availability of data, this study by necessity utilized simple models and Activities in year one have therefore focused on assumptions. While the results strongly suggest developing an urban flood and hydrology data model, that catchment rehabilitation interventions would and specifications for a visualization dashboard. yield a positive outcome in economic terms, the figures presented here are preliminary and warrant further investigation and refinement. The results do, GEOSPATIAL DATA however, provide a useful step towards informing PORTAL AND policies and contributing to Dar es Salaam’s green INFORMATION SYSTEMS urban development path. It is recommended that With the goal of filling the current gap of a data investment is made in the development of better clearinghouse to host and serve climate risk hydrological data, through establishment of flow and information, TURP is supporting the review of climate additional rainfall gauges, as well as development data stakeholders in Tanzania and the development of detailed spatial datasets on soils, land cover, the of a geospatial data portal for producers and built environment, and the city’s drainage systems. // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 users. Competitive selection in FY17 awarded Moving forward, these datasets can then be used to responsibility of the review of the National Spatial Data construct a more definitive analysis.” 4 Infrastructure to Ordnance Survey International with the The probabilistic flood risk model therefore aims to use recommendations report due by December 2017. these improved datasets and apply a loss evaluation The prototyping of modern geospatial catalogues was across the entire metropolitan area. This will involve additionally developed by the British Geological Survey re-evaluating the Msimbazi catchment and surrounding and Deltares over FY17. This included a data model and a 4 World Bank, (2017), Promoting Green Urban Development in Africa: hybrid formal/informal data architecture for urban risk. Amelioration of Flood Risk in the Msimbazi River Catchment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. All available and open climate- and risk-related datasets 13 ACTIVITY SUMMARY created or supported by TURP were uploaded to the COSTECH-hosted geonode and the State University of POVERTY AND DISASTERS Zanzibar, ZanSEA geonode. These platforms are serving – A SOCIO-ECONOMIC as test and training platforms, with a new geonode STUDY expected to host official risk data on a dedicated A ToR has been approved and consultants hired to government server with a PMO-DMD domain and a conduct an analysis of the incentives and vulnerable training node at Ardhi University. conditions of communities in informal flood prone areas Layer of the ZANSEA Geonode // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 of Dar es Salaam. For this activity, a household survey will characteristics in a single data collection effort. With this be implemented continuously throughout the lifetime of data, TURP will support an improved understanding of the TURP program to monitor how household behavior how poverty and disasters are related in terms of level and exposure to risk are associated, as well as monitor of exposure, short- and long-term impacts, capacity household awareness and impacts of TURP activities. to recover, and adoption of behaviors associated with By combining a rapid poverty assessment tool, SWIFT5, living with risk. This study is also expected to support an and a DRM questionnaire, the team will capture data understanding of measuring outcomes in vulnerability on household income, exposure, and socioeconomic reduction through providing insights into a target beneficiary group intended to guide risk-reduction policy. 5 Survey of Well-being via Instant and Frequent Tracking 14 Bank Executed Grants TABLE 1: RISK IDENTIFICATION ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY PROGRESS Exposure mapping pilots Satellite monitoring of urban density changes Urban Exposure Data Mapping Services Equipment provided to support geo-rectification Ramani Huria, community-mapping initiative, adopted into program Existing elevation models reviewed by experts and a high-value dataset identified Elevation Model and Exposure Mapping Lower Msimbazi surveyed and mapped by UAVs Aerial mapping of transport corridors and infrastructure planned Draft assessment complete Risk management index assessment advertised and shortlisted firms identified Institutional Assessments and Risk Management Index Vulnerability assessment recommendations report advertised and shortlisted firms identified Data model for urban flood exposure developed by Deltares Training workshop on disaster loss inventories delivered with IGAD Inventory of Disasters and Losses Historical review of Dar es Salaam disaster events, not yet started Establishment of event databases, not yet started Expert mission in February and March 2017 provided ToR for hydromet data review TAHMO contracted to develop two pilots for Msimbazi weather stations Hydrological Data Strengthening for Climate Risk Delft University contracted to deliver training and technology transfer Delft University contracted to demonstrate an enhanced flood event forecasting system Probabilistic Flood Risk Model for Dar es Salaam Flood risk model pending finalization of exposure data model for detailed ToR // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Ordinance Survey International selected to conduct a review of the National Spatial Data Infrastructure Assessment of climate risk information stakeholders, not yet started Geospatial Data Portal and Information Systems British Geological Survey and Deltares jointly developing a data model and a hybrid formal-informal data architecture for urban risk Climate and risk data hosted on a COSTECH geonode and the ZanSEA geonode Poverty and Disasters – a socio-economic study ToR reviewed and approved, work commenced 15 ACTIVITY SUMMARY Early outputs are anticipated to be made available by the coordination of TURP activities. end of 2017. Finally, a key challenge in Pillar 1 has been to maintain a focus on urban flooding, which was the identified priority Challenges and Lessons at the start of TURP. The Bukoba earthquake, however, demanded that the government support seismic hazard Learned assessments, building code, and construction standards reviews. Similarly, the Government’s prioritization of Pillar 1 is characterized primarily by a range of Dodoma as the administrative center for Tanzania has technological and scientific activities concerning pressured many agencies to focus on logistical moves data collection, curation, analysis and review, and to the capital, and raised demand for risk assessments tool development. A key challenge is that often cost concerning water availability and seismic risk in the city. and time estimates rely on assumptions about data These needs were not foreseen at the outset of TURP, availability, quality, and need. In some cases, certain which maintains a desire to be demand driven and build activites described above have advanced more readily effective relationships with counterparts. As such, there is due to the timely provision of quality data, while in a need to trade off flexibility of the TURP program against other instances there have been delays in identifying or its original work plan sequencing and flood focus. securing access to such data. Incomplete and inaccurate data has at points necessitated the revision of risk model requirements. It has been noted that the review and goals of Pillar 1 are ambitious in terms of developing strategies fit for a fast- changing and often informal data landscape. This is calls for innovative approaches that may differ for the business- as-usual case. Experts that can combine traditional disciplines of risk modelling with new areas such open data, drone imaging, and crowdsourcing are scarce. Consultation and coordination with government counterparts is also non-trivial. Several agencies have internal procedures to review and approve data sharing, // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 collaboration, and approvals for Bank work. The river instrumentation and hydrologic model calibration, for example, requires MoUs with Ministry of Water and Tanzania Meteorological Agency, as well as coordination with Basin authority, environment, and forestry departments and academia. Establishing the Technical Advisory Committee in May 2017 was a key step to support this coordination, as well as requesting support from the prime minister’s office to establish government 16 Bank Executed Grants Financials Pillar 1 projects were allotted funding from two grants: 33% $150,000 TF0A4139, Risk Evaluation and Information Management, and TF0A3559, Urban Exposure Mapping Data Services. 67% Funds disbursed by these grants amounted to USD $300,000 $450,000, and a further $850,000 was committed in contracts. Financial summaries are detailed in Section 9. Risk Evaluation and Info MGMT Urban Exposure Mapping Data Services // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 River blocked and flooding ensues in Credit: Mark Iliffe - World Bank Dar es Salaam 17 ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY Pillar 2: Risk Reduction Measures and Planning SUMMARY // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 18 4 Bank Executed Grants BANK EXECUTED GRANTS PILLAR 2: Risk Reduction Measures and Planning “ “Reducing risk can be achieved through fostering a culture of collaboration between ministries, the city council, municipalities, ward offices, and the community” – Mussa Natty, Senior Advisor, Dar es Salaam Regional Commission Objective To strengthen cities’ capacity to plan for and reduce climate risk through the use of both structural and non-structural measures addressing long- // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 term systemic risk. Overview of Progress Pillar 2 was introduced into the TF at the beginning of FY17 and was structured to build upon the foundation set by Pillar 1. Activities were finalized and approved by GoT, World Bank, and DfID during the first SC meeting. Most work under this Pillar is expected to scale as updated hazard and 19 ACTIVITY SUMMARY risk maps are delivered, which will inform risk-reduction over FY17 as preliminary research actions. A team of planning activities. Nevertheless, work has begun at the urban sociologists were additionally hired to revise the community level and in targeted areas of the Msimbazi community engagement and participatory decision- Basin. Although limited outputs have been recorded, the making process for 20 wards. These sociologists will also final half of FY17 has seen the approval of ToRs and hiring undertake a human-centred design study and a profiling of consultants, as well as early piloting, as detailed below. of target communities and groups in the second year. PARTICIPATORY MSIMBAZI FLOOD COMMUNITY CLIMATE MITIGATION STUDY AND RISK PLANS IMPLEMENTATION PLAN COWI Consultants has been contracted to conduct Informed by the prior work of Zuia Mafuriko (Stop studies and identify risk-reduction priorities for critical Flooding) conducted in 2016 by the Tanzania, Danish, infrastructure (e.g., bridges, bus depot, national hospital) and American Red Cross societies in collaboration with in the Msimbazi Basin and develop a menu of flood- Ramani Huria, this project undertakes a revised process management measures for the lower basin. The flood to develop community risk-reduction plans in 20 wards. risk-reduction plan is expected to assess and recommend To achieve this, expert advisory teams were brought options, including measures such as: together with Ward Executive Officers, the World Bank, and representatives from Humanitarian OpenStreetMap • Dredging of critical identified sections of the primary to identify successes, challenges, and lessons learned, channel and define the best way forward. • Raising of low-lying bridges Key recommendations included: • Excavating the Jangwani Playing Fields to form a Target level should be the subward (MTAA) level, deeper retention basin whereby community leaders can be informed about • Excavation of sediment in existing drains ongoing projects to secure community mobilization; • Rehabilitation of problematic culverts • Assessments of best uses for project products should • Tree planting/revegetation be identified early for effective promotion of such uses throughout project duration; and • Demarcation of flood hazard areas // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 • Projects should have components of advocacy • Management/transformation of demolition areas to build political will within government so that • Drain cleaning programs authorities can start budgeting for these initiatives to enhance project sustainability. • Solid waste management priorities sites TURP has since prepared a socioeconomic study as well • Equipment/goods purchases as an impact evaluation of the participatory process in • Upstream retention basins affecting vulnerability and resilience results. Community • Structural flood defenses for key infrastructure focus groups were called together in three wards 20 Bank Executed Grants This study will provide design options for both short-term actions (i.e., two- to three-year implementation through the Credit: Darragh Coward - World Bank Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project) as well as medium- and long-term priorities for a lower Msimbazi Basin flood-management plan. The recommendations will also inform site-specific infrastructure plans (e.g., emergency operations plan and flood-defence upgrades for transport infrastructure). TRAINING ON USING RISK DATA FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE DECISIONS In conjunction with their flood data model work noted under Pillar 1, Deltares consultants delivered a training on using risk data for improving community resilience Deltares training on risk data for improved decisions. Community residents and leaders were resilience // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Community Initiative to mitigate deposition of Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank sand atop a bridge before flood season 21 ACTIVITY SUMMARY convened to understand factors behind building a identifies the most critical natural assets and resilient community. Participants identified the resources prioritizes their conservation; and and challenges of their neighbourhood and worked • There are broader metropolitan-scale environmental through a series of scenarios to identify measures assets remaining within the city that will require that they can take to mitigate the impact of flooding strategic action to conserve and protect. and reduce risk. Major tactics presented included the establishment of solid waste dumping sites and simple community actions such as drain cleaning. DRAINS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM – PROTOTYPE: ENVIRONMENTAL TWAA MTARO RESTORATION AND To reduce flood risk through the improved management GREEN URBANIZATION of drainage infrastructure, TURP has initiated the development of a prototype of a Drains Management Key findings from the report, Promoting Green Urban Dashboard. This system, currently being developed by Development in African Cities, have informed the a local team with input from universities, will facilitate structuring and prioritization TURP, and they are further reporting on solid waste blockages affecting the flood expected to inform future work on urbanization and risk of local drainage systems and recommend actions environmental impact in the region. A portion of these for clean up. By the end of FY17, a prototype had been findings include: delivered in the form of a web app and USSD mobile • Informal settlement is inevitable and is currently short code that utilizes OpenStreetMap data and is the single biggest driver of ecosystem loss across the city of Dar es Salaam; • Dar es Salaam’s aquatic ecosystems have been the most burdened and degraded by the impacts of urbanization; • Institutional fragmentation // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 is particularly challenging in Dar es Salaam and inhibits effective urban environmental management; • Urban development has not been guided by a strategic planning framework that Twaa Mtaro - Adopt-a-drain application showcased upon different platforms 22 Bank Executed Grants optimized for mobile viewing. The app is currently able to fetch drain data from the map, which is then processed MSIMBAZI CHARRETTE to provide visual information on the status of cleanliness AND AREA PLAN in any particular area. It is expected that a fully operational Terms of Reference have been developed and the system would likely make use of government short codes procurement process initiated to facilitate a participatory, for reporting or Facebook Messenger Bots; both options stakeholder-driven urban design charrette approach to exist in Tanzania and would be free for the users. develop the following: An inaugural pilot, featuring a training session with 1. A strategic framework for open space and citizens, ward officers, and street leaders, is underway in environmental management in the wider Msimbazi two wards of Dar es Salaam. River catchment (approximately 8km2) that provides URBANIZATION REVIEW a shared vision and overall strategic direction for action and investment in the catchment ON RESILIENCE 2. A conceptual design for river revitalization, open During FY17, a team worked to develop an urban space, and recreation for the lower Msimbazi flood resilience chapter and body of knowledge upon the plain (approximately 3km2) that provides more site- existing narrative for African urbanization, highlighting specific interventions for a first phase of investments linkages with climate change and disaster risk. A final in the most flood-vulnerable area of the catchment report will be disclosed in the next fiscal year and serve Together with proposed engineering options prepared as a flagship knowledge product to disseminate to under the COWI assignment, this participatory approach government and policy makers at all levels. will provide an overall vision and design concepts to TABLE 2: FY17 ACTIVITY RESULTS ACTIVITY PROGRESS Zuia Mafuriko lessons-learned workshop conducted Community focus groups conducted in three wards Team of urban sociologists hired to revise community engagement and // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Participatory community climate risk plans participatory decision-making process Team of urban sociologists hired to conduct a Human-Centered Design study Dissemination and discussion of preliminary flood risk scenario and atlas results ongoing since November 2016 Inputs and recommendations for revision of Municipal Planning Process commenced COWI Consultants selected and work ongoing to develop risk-reduction Msimbazi Flood Risk Mitigation Study priorities and implementation plan Environmental restoration and green urbanization Presented at TURP launch workshop 23 ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY PROGRESS Urbanization review Draft outputs finalized System design and prototyping underway Drains management system – prototype: Twaa Mtaro Training, user feedback, and review pilot commenced Data integration and live pilot demonstration targeted for the short rains in December 2017 Combined with Msimbazi Flood Risk Mitigation Study and underway by Msimbazi transport infrastructure risk review COWI consultants Msimbazi charette and area plan ToR drafted guide preparation of an investment program around and risk-mitigation activities, and as such expectations flood mitigation and environmental restoration in the can be raised by bringing civil society and communities Msimbazi catchment. Additional activities and next steps to the table to discuss priorities. Ideally, this process to support this goal include: of engagement is sequenced to leverage new data and analysis to offer stakeholders whilst preceding the • Meetings are ongoing at the technical and director availability of resources and delivery of actions on the level with key stakeholder ministries (e.g., Ministry of round. Timing of activities is key to maintain momentum Lands, NEMC, PORALG, Dar es Salaam Region) to and deepen engagement. gain inputs on the ToR. Whilst Pillar 1 has worked largely with technical • Consultants are expected to mobilize by October counterparts, it also relies increasingly on the buy-in of 2017 and complete the design charrette by January policy makers and on developing relationships with 2017. political champions who have their own visions for the Challenges and Lessons city growth, basin restoration, and manner in which the process should unfold. Learned Priorities are also split between preparing for the short // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 The importance of coordination and local stakeholder term, i.e., the next flood season, and prioritizing the engagement has been evident in Pillar 2 work plans. A long-term planning. Short-term investment needs are key challenge has been understanding how and when to compounded by the lack of data readiness in some convene and at which level. Pillar 2 focuses on planning cases. As such, TURP has followed a two-step planning process, with a focus on “quick wins” where possible, followed by more comprehensive planning based on reliable risk information for the medium to long term. Given the imperative to move quickly in the face of 24 Credit: Studio 19 Tanzania Bank Executed Grants CSO and community leaders gather to discuss future plans for improving resilience of the Msimbazi frequent flood shocks in the city and community needs, while also seeking to address long-term planning 10% processes, the programmatic nature of TURP is critical for $19,000 agility in response to results and events on the ground. Financials In FY17, Pillar 2 projects were allotted funding from three 42% $79,000 grants: TF0A4691, Risk Mitigation Planning; TF0A4571, Msimbazi River Revitalization; and TF0A475, Urbanization Review. Funds disbursed so far under these grants 48% amounted to USD $188,000, with a further $426,000 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 $90,000 committed in contracts. Financial summaries are detailed in Section 9. Risk Mitigation Planning Msimbazi River Revitilization Urbanization Review 25 ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY Pillar 3: Emergency Management and Response SUMMARY // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 26 5 Bank Executed Grants BANK EXECUTED GRANTS PILLAR 3: Emergency Preparedness and Response “ “We exhaust a lot of resources in the event of emergency. Better data, equipment, and coordination is needed to support our greatest asset: people.” – Christopher Mnzava, Coordinator, DarMAERT Objective To strengthen the capacity of stakeholders involved in short-term disaster events and preparedness to cope with specific emergency scenarios. // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Overview of Progress Pillar 3 was developed following review of the government’s National Disaster Risk Management Act and in recognition that disaster risk cannot realistically be entirely eliminated. Shocks may, occur and a key aim of resilience is to develop coping capacities for such events if they arise. The Pillar 3 objective and strategy were approved by World Bank management and DfID during the first TURP SC meeting. Many activities that fall under Pillar 3 are dependent upon outputs from the first two pillars; progress has been made within three key areas, however, as noted in the summary below. 27 ACTIVITY SUMMARY STRENGTHENING OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RESPONSE During FY17, preliminary steps were taken to improve emergency planning in Tanzania’s economic hub of Dar es Salaam. A CERC for the Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project was developed and an operations manual prepared. This plan outlines how CERC funds will work to finance eligible expenditures for post-disaster emergency recovery in support of the Government’s Credit: DarMAERT rapid response efforts resulting from natural or man- made disasters, including public health crises. DarMAERT Emergency Rescue World Bank consultants have additionally been working // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Installation of DarMAERT Emergency Radios Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank 28 Bank Executed Grants with the DarMAERT to develop and implement a Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank comprehensive emergency response plan, which includes: • Background information on disaster risk in Dar es Salaam • Outline of disaster management framework and response structure • Purpose of the DarMAERT Emergency Response Plan • Scope of the DarMAERT Emergency Response Plan • Detailed overview of emergency response operations Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank • Plan for emergency response activation • Steps for implementation and review To further support the Emergency Response Plan, TURP funding was also used to procure high-grade emergency radio equipment and train DarMAERT in its use. Pre- existing communication coverage was stalled at 50%, with just two repeaters, six base stations, and a limited selection of radio handsets. When fully supplied with TURP-procured equipment, Dar es Salaam will be 100% covered, with an addition of three repeater stations, four radio base stations, six mobile stations, 31 radio handsets, and six table phones. COMMUNITY RESPONSE // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 PLANS Community consultations conducted in coordination with risk mapping and profiling of Pillar 1 highlighted the experience of the Community Disaster Response Teams (CDRT) established as a part of the Zuia Mafuriko project. It was noted that despite the project’s end, CDRTs continue to mobilize community clean-up exercises, and CDRTs mobilized and actively removing that these exercises are proving effective in reducing the waste from drains before the flood season 29 ACTIVITY SUMMARY TABLE 3: EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RESPONSE ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY OUTPUTS Operations manual developed for the DMDP CERC Strengthening of Emergency Management and Response in Dar Es Salaam DarMAERT Emergency Response drafted through consultative process Emergency radio equipment procured and currently being installed Community Response Plans Initial plans made– expected to follow community level risk mapping and risk profiling Post-Disaster Needs Assessment training conducted – potential follow-up training Damage Assessment Capacity-Building under discussion. effects of flooding. CDRTs are additionally committed to a follow-up training, and the potential for delivery of said providing first-aid services in the event of emergency. training is now under discussion. Initial plans for broadening the reach of community The training course itself was delivered by IGAD using response plans and CDRTs have been conceptualized separate funding; the local coordination and participation and actions will be carried out in late 2017. from Dodoma of Disaster focal point staff, however, was supported by TURP. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT CAPACITY-BUILDING Challenges and Lessons Learned Pillar 3 has faced challenges in sequencing and The Bank team, working in partnership with the GFDRR, coordination. Ideally, community response plans are // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 facilitated the IGAD to deliver a training workshop on based on the timely delivery of inundation baseline post-disaster needs assessments (PDNA) and disaster data, but must also align with the pre-flood season risk frameworks (DRF) to 50 government officials from preparedness. Delivery of the flood response plan after relevant ministries and institutions in May 2017. This the rainy season should be avoided. This places a degree training provided a comprehensive overview of how of pressure on the team and need for careful planning. to conduct PDNAs and develop a sustainable DRF. The goal was to ensure standardized responses across There is also a broad range of needs in this pillar that will government to disaster. The majority of attendees rated exceed TURP’s resources and present potentially complex the training as excellent, though requests were made for trade-offs. The most significant risk is that of a major flood 30 Bank Executed Grants event occurring during TURP implementation. This would likely result in restructuring of activities and scaling up of response, rehabilitation, and recovery actions. The PDNA training was in part aimed at preparing stakeholders and supporting a clear methodology and coordination mechanism should an emergency occur. Finally, delays in customs clearance required an adjustment in the schedule for installation of the 100% $300,000 DarMAERT emergency radios and associated trainings. Financials The total grant amount available for TF0A3828 was USD $480,000, 81% of which was disbursed or committed. Total disbursement over FY17 was USD $300,000, with a further $89,000 committed in contracts. Emergency Planning and Response Financial summaries are detailed in Section 9. // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 DarMAERT Emergency Radio Equipment installed for use 31 ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY Resilience Academy SUMMARY // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 32 6 Bank Executed Grants BANK EXECUTED GRANTS Resilience Academy TURP funding is being used in the development of a curriculum to address an identified gap in academic and professional knowledge on urban resilience. This is anticipated to be a multi-year partnership with the major Dar es Salaam universities, with potential to grow to other cities or online open course content, as well as training colleges. During this financial year, a MoU focused on urban resilience skills, tools, and equipment was developed between the Bank’s legal department and Ardhi University. The agreement aims to strengthen collaboration across a range of schools within the university, including geoinformatics, spatial planning and social science, geography, and economics. Engagement areas include: // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 • Continuous engagement on Urban Exposure mapping through Ramani Huria; • Training in the analysis of resilience-related spatial data, including flood modeling, damage assessment, and disaster risk management; mapping of storm water drainage systems; transportation (public and non-motorized transport); and development of ICT applications; • Establishing a risk-mapping laboratory capable of supporting spatial surveys, including topographic and infrastructure mapping, which will maintain specialized equipment; 33 ACTIVITY SUMMARY Students use new skills to map the infrastructure of an informal settlement • Training of University staff and students on operation and maintenance of survey drones and related equipment and processing of the produced images; • Training and participation in the set-up and maintenance of new hydro-meterological sensor networks, including through the TAHMO; • Organizing joint demonstrations for students and staff to showcase the use of information, computer technology, and spatial data in urban resilience issues to promote citizen science and community engagement; • Developing a joint curriculum for training and retraining of professionals on resilience mapping, online sharing, and accessing data; and • Generating contents that will feed into University courses and pedagogical skills. An Urban Flood Risk Mapping “Cookbook” is being developed to guide the risk identification, modelling, and mapping portion of curriculum content. An inception report was submitted in June 2017. Due to delays in the MoU signing, a pilot course at the Bachelor’s level remains in early stages of discussion. // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 34 Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank Bank Executed Grants TABLE 4: RESILIENCE ACADEMY ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY OUTPUTS MoU signed between Ardhi University and the World Bank ITC-Twente University hired to develop an “Urban Flood Risk-Mapping Resilience Academy Cookbook” Delivery of a pilot Bachelor’s curriculum on urban flood-mapping under early discussions Financials The total grant amount available for TF0A4238 was USD $570,000, 71% of which was disbursed or committed. 100% $5,000 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Urban Resilience Academy 35 ACTIVITY SUMMARY RECIPIENT EXECUTED GRANTS ACTIVITY Small Risk Reduction Actions SUMMARY Grant (Challenge Grant) Objective The activity will engage civil society organizations to support Msimbazi River // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 restoration, clean up, and community infrastructure management. Execution Mode This may be a bank-executed activity or a recipient-executed grant, depending on procurement recommendations and execution options. The amount of the grant is expected to be less than USD $2.5 million. A Bank team is developing a consultation process and concept note. 36 Recipient Executed Grants Government-Executed Risk- Reduction Grant Objective A technical scoping mission was conducted in February 2017, which recommended that TURP invest between USD $20 million and USD $30 million in an additional financing to the World Bank’s ongoing Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project. The project concept note package has been developed and was approved by the Bank management in July 2017. Given the financial cuts to the TURP budget and the persistently low exchange rate of the UK pound sterling against the US dollar, the envisaged amount is expected in range of USD $20 million to USD $25 million. The final resource allocation will depend on the results of technical reviews and available funds. // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 37 ACTIVITY SUMMARY PROGRAM MANAGEMENT Program Management Objective Program management and administration activities for the trust fund ACTIVITY include, but are not limited to, supporting program governance arrangements and trust fund-related meetings; planning and executing work plans and budgets; managing communications and conducting outreach; disseminating lessons learned; reporting on progress; and monitoring and evaluating the program. SUMMARY Overview of Progress A conference was held from May 31 through June 2 to serve as a technical launch for the program. The event brought donors, implementers, and experts together to discuss the program structure, plans, and early progress. Participants included: • 200+ government officials from Tanzania • 16 honourable guests from surrounding nations • 75 journalists from 42 African countries
 • 10 local CSO representatives
 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 • Experts in the field of urban resilience Technical workshops were conducted on the subjects of the Msimbazi River Basin Flood Study, Open Data for Resilience, Early Warning and Hydromet Improvements, and CSOs and Charrette Planning. A post-conference survey found the event to be highly informative and productive, with 57% rating it as excellent and 43% as very good. A significant portion of attendees additionally noted that the conference endowed them with five or more valuable connections. 38 Program Management TABLE 5: PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY PROGRESS Formation of a technical review committee Complete Formulation of ToR and child activity concept note documents Complete 9 grant applications reviewed and approved Evaluation of proposals and firm selections 26 consultants (13 Tanzanian) hired 9 firms selected 1 external website 1 internal knowledge repository Knowledge capture and sharing 1 World Bank feature story 2 online videos TABLE 6: SECRETARIAT ACTIVITY SUMMARY ACTIVITY PROGRESS Partnership review note Complete Administrative set-up of trust fund accounts Complete Staff hiring and relocation Complete // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Operations manual, 18-month workplan, and costing Complete Annual reviews Complete Communications, branding, and logos Complete International conference and launch event Complete One in November 2016 SC meetings One in July 2017 39 ACTIVITY SUMMARY Challenges and Lessons Learned have now been harmonized, TURP was subjected to a performance improvement plan by DfID with an TURP has been established as a programmatic trust fund. emphasis on accelerating the implementation actions. As such, program design is not fixed, but expected to This has left little time for evaluation of key assumptions evolve each year as new stakeholders, data, and priorities and stakeholders and training of new staff. arise. The first year of implementation is particularly challenging as it has been characterized by tension FRONT-LOADING OF COMMITMENTS – TURP between the desire to implement the existing work plan has also experienced pressure to revise its work plan and as fast as possible, and the need to revise and adjust both front-load commitment schedules where possible. This technical components and administration arrangements, is due in part to DfID requests to minimize commitments based on new data and feedback from counterpart in 2018/2019 and shift funds to 2017 where possible, or agencies. Key challenges have included: risk losing the funds altogether (see below). This request has been met where possible by extending the scope COUNTERPART AND STAKEHOLDER and duration of initial consultancy contracts and initiating ENGAGEMENT – TURP is an ambitious multi- a number of training events earlier than planned. It is stakeholder agenda cutting across the whole of challenging, however, to maintain quality control and government at local, municipal, and national levels. flexibility to revise operations when a large portion of Convening stakeholders and establishing an appropriate the program is committed up front. Front-loading can structure for each level of engagement is time intensive, be done, but care and time need to be taken to avoid as it requires developing relationships, sensitizing compromising quality. counterparts, receiving feedback, and building ownership. For example, some stakeholders have a BUDGETARY UNCERTAINTY AND CUT – While comparatively high degree of readiness to engage, the Bank team was aware of the possibility of a budget while others have been keen to participate but obliged cut to TURP since January 2017, there was a six-month to follow internal decision-making processes. In a few period of uncertainty regarding the size, timing, and cases, key counterparts have be assigned new positions scope of cuts. Ultimately, a budget cut of USD $7.5 million and new focal points been onboarded. This process of was determined by the donor in June 2017. government and stakeholder engagement is vital for the When measured in combination with the decline in the success of the program; the pace of activity, however, is GBP-to-USD exchange rate, this represents approximately not easily predicted nor influenced. one-third of the budget cut to the original program ACCELERATED IMPLEMENTATION – During overall. This in turn has led to a challenging set of trade- // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 the first DfID annual review (October 2016), TURP’s offs in terms of which activities to scale up to meet implementation schedule was found to be significantly front-loading requests, which to accelerate to advance delayed. A major cause for this finding was due to a the implementation schedule, and which to hold or cut mismatch between the donor’s result framework and entirely. implementation schedule, which followed an early The budget reduction will impact all activities of TURP. business case timeline and the Bank’s implementation It is recognized that this reduction in funds creates plan, which was updated during a partnership review additional challenges for the program; an approach process in June 2016. Although the result frameworks that can minimize the impact is being assessed and an 40 Program Management amendment to the signed Administration Agreement is Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank being prepared. RISK DATA UNCERTAINTY – Very little risk profiling existed for Dar es Salaam at the start of TURP, so pressure to move ahead with designing risk-reduction investments is countered by the desire to wait for risk-assessment results. Priority risk information activities on exposure and hydrology were therefore accelerated. In the case of Hydromet, however, the team is still beholden to the timing of the rainy seasons and will not expect sufficient flood data for detailed assessments until at least two flood seasons have elapsed. The strategy has therefore been to advance on two fronts: collecting the best risk information as fast as possible, while simultaneously designing risk plans that are fit for the available data. The team believes that in the cases of community inundation maps, community priorities can already be developed on the basis of Ramani Huria flood atlas results, which is a deterministic scenario set by communities themselves. Financial protection measures and larger city-wide investments will have to wait for more detailed loss evaluation modelling work to complete. Within targeted areas, such as lower Msimbazi, the flood mitigation study is designed such that a majority of flood mitigation actions can be identified early on under the “quick wins” report. These represent generally well-known measures for which the team has high confidence for a return on investment. As better risk data becomes available, assumptions can be updated and new analyses can be // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 undertaken on complementary measures as well as more refined cost-benefit calculations. Ardhi students working together to address obstacles in mapping 41 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 42 RESULTS 7 RESULTS  RESULTS Results Overview objectives of such an annual exercise. The first year target value is for incipient. The results framework includes three targets at impact level that intend to make urban areas in Tanzania more An expert assessment of the emergency management resilient to climate risk: and response authorities as well as the national disaster risk management plan concluded that the risk 1. Increased number of wards benefitting from or management capacity in 2017 is incipient to moderate. implementing flood risk-mitigation measures This is not the exact same methodology; it is proposed, identified in ward-level risk management plans; however, that this assessment stand as an interim 2. Improved capacity of government agencies to measure, whilst a more thorough excise is developed and identify, reduce, finance, and cope with disaster risks; applied retroactively in 2018. and Indicator 1.3 is proposed to be modified from the 3. Reduced modelled economic losses in the Msimbazi Probable Maximum Loss from a 1–100 flood event to the Valley as a result of the structural mitigation measures Expected Annual Loss from flooding across all modelled designed. floods based on 2017 exposure. This event would better capture short return period losses as well as major events, At outcome level, with the intent to ensure urban local and better represents the objective of the indicator. It also governments in Tanzania utilize improved evidence base aligns with the metric published in the April 2017 report and urban planning to strengthen resilience to climate- on Msimbazi flood losses by Anchor Environmental related hazards, the results framework includes two Consultants. targets: Indicator 3.1, “Catalogue of existing structured exposure 1. Number of persons benefitting from improved flood and hazard data,” is partly completed. This particular task resilience as a result of ICF support; and for a catalogue of hazard and exposure data is in fact not 2. Extent to which ICF intervention is likely to have a as discreet as first described, with several distinct steps transformational impact. involved: data model, exposure mapping, and hazard Intermediate results indicators, segregated into the three baselines. pillars of priority for program implementation, are also The data model for exposure data (i.e., people, buildings, included, as well as specific indicators related to program and infrastructure and their associated vulnerabilities) has administration and recipient-executed works. These are been developed as a collaborative and multidisciplinary detailed in Table 7 below. // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 process. This has exceeded the original expectations in Activities implemented during FY17 nearly achieved all terms of scope and stakeholders, but it is considered goals set by the framework, with a few exceptions and worthwhile for the long-term sustainability of the process. changes detailed in the following paragraphs. The team worked with disaster risk experts (i.e., Deltares, British Geological Survey, UCL), municipal councils, and Indicator 1.2 has not been measured by the means GIS experts to develop a model that incorporates both originally envisaged due to delay in issuing the Risk vulnerability and disaster risk dimensions of exposure, Management Index evaluation. This delay occurred as well as key municipal service drives such as address, because of the need to thoroughly consult and engage meter numbers, property typologies, and age. This was government counterparts in the methodology and 43 RESULTS done to mainstream the risk considerations into the data Credit: Frederick Mbuya - World Bank collection processes of municipal service providers. Exposure mapping has been implemented through building and drainage digitization and classification in Dar es Salaam, and hosted on a geonode at the Commission for Science and Technology. Additional geonodes for catalogue hosting are planned at PO-RALG, PMO-DMD, and Ardhi University and State University of Zanzibar. Hazard layers are partially assembled but not yet catalogued onto the geonodes. // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Aerial imagery of rural surrounding of Dar es Salaam 44 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Results Framework TABLE 7: FY17 RESULTS FRAMEWORK DATA COLLECTION AND REPORTING INDICATOR BASELINE FY17 DATA COMMENT FREQUENCY RESPONSIBILITY SOURCE Impact Indicators: Urban areas in Tanzania are more resilient to climate risk 1.1 Number of wards benefiting This indicator tracks the extent to which from or implementing flood risk- Regional PO-RALG and ULGAs structural and non-structural risk-reduction mitigation measures identified 0 0/0 Annually Administrative responding to expert- measures are identified in local government in ward-level risk management Secretary led survey plans and implemented plans Weighted index of advances made in 1.2 Improved capacity of Disaster risk PO-RALG and ULGAs intermediate outcome indicators for Pillars government agencies to identify, Low Incipient / NA Annually management responding to expert- 1, 2, and 3. Assessment based on Dar es reduce, finance, and cope with index led survey Salaam and including measures for financial disaster risks protection. An expected reduction in the Probably 1.3 Modelled economic losses in 2017 baseline PO-RALG and ULGAs Maximum Loss (PML) for the 1-100 return the Msimbazi Basin reduced as a Probabilistic N/A PML without Annually resposibile for expert- period flood in Msimbazi basin, based on result of structural risk-mitigation Flood model works led survey 2017 exposure, when comparing 2017 measures designed interventions and TURP supported Outcome Indicators: Urban local governments in Tanzania utilize improved evidence base and urban planning to strengthen resilience to climate-related hazards Population estimate based on census data, household data, associated with dwellings 2.1 Number of persons benefiting and businesses exposed to flood hazards, Flood risk and from improved flood resilience as 0 0/0 Annually World Bank and modelled to expect reduced losses as a exposure model a result of ICF support result of ICF interventions (e.g., new/improved drains, early warning systems, and/or flood shelters) (Dar es Salaam only) 2.2 Extent to which ICF Narrative report made during DfID annual intervention is likely to have a 0 1 / TBD Annually Annual Review DfID review process. A score between 1 and 4 will transformational impact be assigned.  RESULTS 45 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 46 DATA COLLECTION AND REPORTING INDICATOR BASELINE FY17 DATA COMMENT FREQUENCY RESPONSIBILITY SOURCE Intermediate Result Indicators Pillar 1: Risk Identification Catalogue of existing structured exposure and hazard data Based on A geospatial data portal will serve as a 3.1 Improved access to climate Not yet completed / Annually indicators 3.1 – repository for information at both national and risk information in Dar es Salaam available data model 3.4, 4.3, and 4.6 subnational levels and exposure complete, hazard partially complete Pilot satellite- Standardized exposure, hazard, and risk based exposure monitoring tools will be developed first as monitoring pilots and applied across urban centres. service 3.2 Exposure and risk Climate risk These services will serve as a monitoring tool launched assessments applied in major 0 Annually geonode PO-RALG for investment needs (build-up of vulnerable / Confirmed cities (cumulative number) repository population in hazard areas), baselines for launched with exposure populations, and a support tool Planet Labs for development and improved land use and EastView planning. Geospatial Pillar 2: Risk Reduction 4.1 Cumulative number of people This indicator is a targeted and High-Intensity 0 Participant lists directly engaged in climate risk- ICF Indicator that tracks the training of / and registrations reduction activities - number and 0 Annually World Bank individuals in understanding risk information, 50 (of which 25 from trainings percentage of females (WB core and analyzing and applying risk data female) and events indicator) 4.2 Community risk-reduction plans developed using improved Ward Offices This indicator directly tracks the progress of 0 0/0 Annually World Bank risk information (cumulative and LGAs risk-reduction planning on a community level number) RESULTS // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 DATA COLLECTION AND REPORTING INDICATOR BASELINE FY17 DATA COMMENT FREQUENCY RESPONSIBILITY SOURCE Concept note approved for This indicator tracks: large grant 4.3 Government risk-reduction Progress towards signing of grants (will have 0 (<$20 million) Annually Secretariat World Bank activities own results framework) agreements / Concept Evaluation for government-executed works Memo Approved Pillar 3: Emergency Preparedness and Management Preparation of at least one This indicator tracks: 5.1 Approved emergency initiated Municipalities adopting flood-response plans contingency plans for Tanzanian 0 Annually ULGA reports ULGAs and World Bank / Scenarios of events and affected areas and cities (cumulative number) Dar es Salaam vulnerable groups ERP Prepared Program Administration and Recipient Executed Works Launch event This indicator tracks: held, program Milestones 6.1 Program management, 0 outputs review/ Annually Secretariat World Bank Key reports knowledge, and communications Launched May Events 30, 2017 Outputs expected  RESULTS 47 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 48 RISKS 8 RISKS  RISKS The risk assessment presented during the program concept review is updated in Annex II. The main change is an upgrade in the risk rating from moderate to substantial. The key changes to the risk rating involve the following: Stakeholder engagement and coordination The Urban Resilience program is tending towards greater complexity with many stakeholders involved at local, municipal, and national levels. It will be increasingly difficult to manage expectations on timelines, priorities, and resource allocations across the spectrum. The strategy of the team is to engage and empower national champions; the prime minister’s office Disaster Management Department, and the president’s office Regional Administration and Local Government are key conveners and coordinators across the national system and with municipal governments. In addition, certain specialized agencies, such as Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Ministry of Lands, and National Environmental Council will be key in specific work areas. The challenge is to maintain clear coordination and consultation with stakeholders of divergent priorities or whose goals may change over time. Budgetary cuts, uncertainty, and sequencing The program has already experienced a cut of approximate USD $7.5 million. The deterioration in the GBP-to-USD exchange rate has also compounded the situation. When the TF agreement was signed, the budget envelop was estimated to be USD $55 million; this is now projected at USD $37 million. Whilst cuts to the planned activities have been made, these currently represent // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 the minimum necessary cuts such that the overall program remains ambitious for the new resource envelop. Exchange rate risks remain, and should the GBP fall further against the USD, further activities will need to be scaled back and increase risk to development objectives. Also at risk is the sequencing of funds flow. When originally designed, the TF program envisaged a slow build-up of commitments and increasing transfers from the donor to the Bank in line with projected expenditures. In practice, however, both the transfer schedule and the commitment schedule are 49 RISKS under pressure to front-load resources. Front-loading in the early stages of the program is possible, but carries a risk that commitment decisions are made under limited data and feedback. A further constraint that was not foreseen during design is the restriction on making commitments during January to March each year. This time period represent the pre-flood season, during which unforeseen needs relating to preparedness may arise. Overall the reduced budget, front-loading of commitments, and restrictions on January to March contracting, reduce the flexibility of the program to respond to shocks. Environmental, social, and security TURP tackles some of the greatest challenges in the Msimbazi Valley relating to flood risk and risk management. The first year has identified that risks related to working in the target areas may be significant. These relate to the social and livelihood complexities, environmental concerns, and possible adverse effects of a major flood or other similar emergency. Social issues in the Msimbazi center on the demolitions of encroaching buildings or large scale resettlement activities, and unsuccessful historic resettlements in the area as well as the provision of alternative livelihoods for the various communities making a living from the river (e.g., sand mining, urban farming). This program does not envisage engaging directly in any demolition or resettlement activities; the issue is a sensitive one, however, that must be treated with care. There is a risk to the program if community grievances are not well managed and it is of paramount importance that safeguard policies be followed. The environmental concerns center on the river basin and activities linked to dredging of the rivers and disposal of waste materials. Erosion and environmental specialists may be needed to review mangrove and other habitat concerns, and if needed an environmental impact assessment will be // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 required from the government before proceeding with any work. 50 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017  51 9 AHEAD LOOKING LOOKING AHEAD The second year of TURP anticipates a shift into as a recipient-executed Civil Society Basin Restoration investment operations, with the largest part of child activity; the team is assessing the option to proceed commitments being a government-executed as Bank executed, however, which may afford more grant. Preparation of the grant has begun and Bank flexibility and efficiency. A recommendation will be management has approved a Dar es Salaam Flood Risk presented at the next SC. Management Project, which is the working title for the The remainder of the Bank-executed technical assistance Msimbazi-focused flood mitigation work as well as city- is expected to continue at greater pace with significant wide capacity building and equipment needs. It should scale-up of Pillar 2 activities, which are planned to make be noted that the entire grant amount (estimated GBP use of newly available data and methods. Testing and 19,200,000) is now reflected as a FY18 commitment. training on flood early warning systems will also begin in Although disbursements by the government are the next year. expected from 2018 to 2021, the Bank’s schedule of transfers to the government has not been determined Table 8 presents the projected workplan activities for yet. For the Bank to process this grant, the TURP trustee the next year in GBP. Approximately GBP 24.2 million account must either receive the projected commitment in commitments is the target, of which GBP 14.6 million in full or the administration agreement must be amended should be disbursed within the year. These estimates will to adopt a cost-plus structure. This issue should be guide the program management and funds transfers, addressed in the next SC meeting. however the contracts will be signed in either USD or TZS and so actual amounts are subject to revisions. A Another new workstream for FY18 will be the major portion of these funds depends on the approval engagement of civil society as a complement to the and timing of the Dar es Salaam Flood Risk Management large investment package. This activity is currently listed Project. // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 52  TABLE 8: DISBURSEMENT PLAN FOR FY18 IN GBP FY17 FY18 FY18 ACTIVITY DISBURSEMENT DISBURSEMENT COMMITMENTS Total £1,286,000 £14,611,000 £24,241,000 PA Program Management £110,000 £60,000 £100,000 TA Program Coordination & Quality Assurance £60,000 £30,000 £50,000 Knowledge Sharing £50,000 £30,000 £50,000 Pillar 1 - Risk Identification £435,000 £1,740,000 £1,335,000 Risk Evaluation £375,000 £1,660,000 £1,255,000 Historical Events Inventory £0 £90,000 £90,000 Risk Management Index £10,000 £145,000 £150,000 Vulnerability Index £5,000 £70,000 £80,000 Elevation Model and Exposure Mapping £50,000 £100,000 £80,000 Land Use and Structure (Community Mapping) £50,000 £385,000 £35,000 Satellite Data Mapping Cities £100,000 £100,000 £80,000 Hydrological Study £100,000 £150,000 £10,000 Spatial Data Management & Hosting £50,000 £120,000 £145,000 Dar es Salaam Probabilistic Flood Risk Evaluation £10,000 £500,000 £585,000 Research Program on Poverty and Disaster £60,000 £80,000 £80,000 Pillar 2 - Risk Reduction £343,000 £1,330,000 £1,535,000 Risk Mitigation Planning £160,000 £500,000 £570,000 Msibmazi Flood Risk Infrastructure Diagnostic £80,000 £140,000 £10,000 Other just-in-time technical assistance £50,000 £100,000 £150,000 Land use planning and building codes £0 £60,000 £90,000 ICT Systems for Risk Management (Drains Maintenance) £30,000 £200,000 £320,000 Msimbazi River Revitalization £60,000 £175,000 £340,000 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Msimbazi charrette and area plan £35,000 £75,000 £190,000 Msimbazi River Basin Management Plan £25,000 £100,000 £150,000 Community Risk Reduction £40,000 £245,000 £285,000 Participatory climate risk plans, training, behavior change £15,000 £200,000 £250,000 Socioeconomic study £25,000 £45,000 £35,000 Urbanization Review - Resilience Planning £8,000 £75,000 £75,000 53 LOOKING AHEAD FY17 FY18 FY18 ACTIVITY DISBURSEMENT DISBURSEMENT COMMITMENTS Pillar 3 - Emergency Preparedness and £225,000 £895,000 £1,100,000 Response Emergency Planning and Response £225,000 £445,000 £700,000 DARMAERT contingency plan and SOP £55,000 £90,000 £65,000 equipment £100,000 £10,000 £10,000 Municipal contingency plans £0 £75,000 £150,000 Community response plans £50,000 £150,000 £295,000 Training, exercises, and drills £0 £70,000 £130,000 Damage assessment capacity building £20,000 £50,000 £50,000 Early Warning Systems £0 £450,000 £400,000 Local Early Warning and Early Action £0 £250,000 £200,000 Forecast and Flood Advisories £0 £200,000 £200,000 Resilience Academy £75,000 £335,000 £265,000 Curriculum for Risk Mapping £50,000 £100,000 £70,000 Resilience Academy Risk Awareness and Prevention £10,000 £160,000 £110,000 Capacity building and training in risk data and systems £15,000 £75,000 £85,000 Recipient Executed Works £0 £10,400,000 £19,900,000 Dar es Salaam Flood Risk Management Project £0 £9,600,000 £19,200,000 Equipment £0 £400,000 £400,000 Feasibility study and designs £0 £500,000 £900,000 Msimbazi Works £0 £8,300,000 £17,000,000 Capacity Building £0 £100,000 £400,000 Safeguards £0 £300,000 £500,000 Civil Society Basin Restoration £0 £800,000 £700,000 River restoration £0 £400,000 £300,000 Cleanest MTAA program scale-up £0 £400,000 £400,000 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Secretariat £173,000 £186,000 £311,000 MoU launch event £0 £25,000 £25,000 International conference series £60,000 £25,000 £150,000 Communications plan development £4,000 £5,000 £5,000 Steering committee meetings £1,000 £1,000 £1,000 Communications, websites, and media £7,000 £5,000 £5,000 M&E baseline data collection £1,000 £5,000 £5,000 Publications (update resilience report/editing/printing) £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 Annual review £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 Staffing £60,000 £100,000 £100,000 54 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017  55 10 FINANCIALS FINANCIALS ALLOCATION OF TURP PROJECT PILLAR FUNDS IN FY17 Financial Overview 15% $570,000 Total contribution from the TF in FY17 amounted to 31% USD $4.7 million, with $439,000 paid in 2016 and $4.3 $1,220,000 million paid in 2017. Total project disbursements reached 12% $480,000 USD $1.3 million and an additional commitment of $1.9 million. This left a balance of USD $1.4 million in contributions at the end of FY17. As this report comes at the end of the first full financial year since program inception, these contributions, disbursements, and commitments are also cumulative totals. 42% $1,630,000 Pillar 1 Pillar 3 Pillar 2 Resilience Academy TABLE 8: DISBURSEMENT PLAN FOR FY18 IN GBP *AMOUNT AS INDICATED IN CLIENT CONNECTION, NOT YET AMENDED TO REFLECT JUNE 12, 2017 DFID BUDGET CUT REPORTING PERIOD ENDED JUNE 30, 2017 (USD) Funds Committed by DfID $44,916,550* Funds Received from DfID $4,798,030 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Total Funds Available $3,246,335 Total Funds Committed or Allocated $4,700,000 Total Disbursement $1,333,655 Cash Balance at the End of FY17 $1,331,287 Funds Available for Commitment and/or Allocation $517,440 Outstanding DFID Commitments at End of FY17 $40,118,520 56 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Disbursements TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF DISBURSEMENTS FOR BETF ACTIVITIES TOTAL BUDGET FY17 % DISBURSED + BETF ACTIVITY ALLOCATED COMMITTED AVAILABLE DISBURSED COMMITTED (USD) Pillar 1 Risk Evaluation and Information TF0A3559 1,480,000 300,000 850,000 330,000 78% Management Urban Exposure Mapping Data TF0A4139 150,000 150,000 0 0 100% Services Total Pillar 1 1,630,000 450,000 850,000 330,000 94% Pillar 2 TF0A4691 Risk Mitigation Planning 850,000 90,000 410,000 350,000 59% TF0A3571 Msimbazi River Revitalization 265,000 19,000 16,000 230,000 13% Urbanization Review - Resilience TF0A4575 105,000 79,000 0 26,000 75% Planning Total Pillar 2 1,220,000 188,000 426,000 606,000 50% Pillar 3 TF0A3828 Emergency Planning and Response 480,000 300,000 89,000 90,000 81% Total Pillar 3 480,000 300,000 89,000 90,000 81% Resilience Academy TF0A4238 Urban Resilience Academy 570,000 5,000 400,000 164,000 71% Total Resilience 570,000 5,000 400,000 164,000 71% Academy Program Administration Program Technical Support, Quality TF0A3742 230,000 154,000 24,000 2000 77% Assurance TF0A2973 Secretariat & Conferences 500,000 225,000 84,000 191,000 62% Total Administration 730,000 379,000 108,000 193,000 67% OVERALL TOTAL 4,630,000 1,322,000 1,873,000 1,383,000 69% Child Activities  57 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 58 ANNEXES 11 ANNEXES  ANNEXES ANNEX I - Dar es Salaam ward executive officers. It has been reported that these community officials are making COMMUNICATIONS great use of the data contained within the products, including general maps, drainage maps, and flood Communication products inundation maps for 21 city wards. The publication Preliminary efforts to establish and improve has now been made available online via the digital communications of TURP activities have been centered publishing platform, issuu, where it has received around the development of an outward-facing website 3,277 impressions to date. and an internal platform for collaboration. Beyond those • The TURP-funded Zanzibar Mapping Initiative was initiatives, a select few communication products have featured in a World Bank video titled, “Mapping secured valuable exposure for the program: Zanzibar using Low-Cost Drones”.This video went • The Ramani Huria Atlas for Flood Resilience was viral on Facebook, receiving over 370,000 views, published in October 2016 and launched at the 1,800 likes, and 870 shares. Ramani Huria Closing Workshop the following A summary of key World Bank communications products month. The Atlas received praise from all workshop related to TURP FY17 can be found in Table 11. attendees, but particularly from its target audience, TABLE 11: KEY COMMUNICATION PRODUCTS OUTPUT CATEGORY LOCATION Programme Collaboration for Website https://collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/tanzania-urban-resilience-online-community Development Programme Website http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/tanzania-urban-resilience-program Website Ramani Huria https://issuu.com/ramanihuria/docs/ramani_huria_atlas_final Atlas for Flood Report Resilience Problems of Population Growth http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/05/31/problems-of-population-growth-and- and Climate Feature Story climate-change-converge-in-dar-es-salaam // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 Change Converge in Dar es Salaam Ramani Huria Website http://ramanihuria.org/ Project Website Urban Resilience https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmHwiOhd5_0&feature=youtu.be Video for Tanzania How Tanzanians http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/11/01/how-tanzanians-are-mapping-their-own- are Mapping their Video city-to-solve-flooding Own City to Solve Flooding 59 ANNEXES Events The programme team organized and hosted a number of events over FY17 to engage implementation partners, facilitate knowledge transfer, encourage collaboration, and showcase progress. RAMANI HURIA CLOSING WORKSHOP The Ramani Huria Closing Workshop took place on November 7 and 8 at the National Museum in Dar es Salaam. This workshop provided community mappers, government officials, and experts in the field with an opportunity to showcase the innovative pilot project’s outputs, reflect on methods used, and elicit opinion on the future of mapping for development in Tanzania. URTZ: BUILDING URBAN RESILIENCE IN TANZANIA From May 31 through June 2, 2017, the TURP technical launch conference brought 350+ government officials, donors, and experts together to imagine a future of resilient urbanization in Tanzania and surrounding nations. An interactive agenda of technical sessions on day two were particularly useful in laying groundwork for collaborative implementation of programme activities. The launch was attended by 75 journalists from across the continent who learned how to better report on issues of urbanization. The journalists’ articles were featured by news agencies spanning an extensive geographic and linguistic territory. Some of these articles // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 included: • worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/05/31/problems-of- population-growth-and- climate-change-converge-in-dar-es- salaam 
 • http://groupelavenir.org/en-tanzanie-dart-met-en-place- un-mode-de-transport-qui- prend-en-compte-laspect- environnemental/ 
 • http://www.herald.ng/world-bank-calls-improved-infrastructure- african-cities/ 60  ANNEXES ANNEX II - UPDATED RISK ASSESSMENT TABLE 1: RISK IDENTIFICATION ACTIVITY SUMMARY RISK RATING RISK AREA RISK DESCRIPTION UPDATE AND REMARKS (L, M, S, H) Strategic TF may not align with the country strategies nor Prime minister’s office Disaster Management Dept and meet client’s demand. president’s office Regional Administration have been Alignment invited to SC. A Technical Advisory Committee including with strategic 10 agencies also created. objectives L The outcomes of the TFs may not contribute to The new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) is TF outcomes the outcomes of the CPF Result Framework on being reviewed for climate resilience considerations. urban services and environment and natural The recipient-executed components of TF shall be resources. appraised by management in view of CPF priorities. Stakeholder A SC is established with representation from the GoT, World Bank, and DFID. Annual work program will be There is a lack of coordination and discussed and agreed for the following year. Reports will Coordination communication amongst the TTLs of TF-financed be submitted from TTL to TF manager before the annual activities, and between the TTLs and the TF SC meeting. Approval manager. S Delays Most themes and activities are identified in advance and The donor’s approval of the annual work program donor agreements obtained during the TF preparation. may be delayed. Any change will be discussed early with the donor to facilitate in time approval of changes. Financial Funds approved by DFID ministers on 17 September 2015. Cut of GBP 5,767,556 communicated by donor Donor The donor may fail to contribute the funds as June 13, 2017. Further cuts possible. commitment committed due to unexpected shortfall of funds. S All RETF activities will follow the Bank’s procurement Fiduciary Misuse of funds in RETF activities. procedures. Ongoing DfID and World Bank oversight, // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 e.g., through supervision missions and procurement reviews, will monitor risk. Operational Technical staff and management changeover in A TF operational manual has been drafted to clarify Staffing levels M the field could impact priority of the TF activities. and obtain consensus on more detailed roles and responsibilities. 61 ANNEXES RISK RATING RISK AREA RISK DESCRIPTION UPDATE AND REMARKS (L, M, S, H) Relationship* The program believes that the main thread to Change in The government is developing a national DRM sustainable growth in Tanzania is urban resilience and government L framework, which may present demand for TF will communicate this based on data. Nevertheless, priorities resources outside of urban flood focus area. TURP may face pressure to adjust to additional priorities of government. Security* An emergency declaration either in Dar es salaam or nationally, due to natural hazard The program aims to develop as much preparedness as (flood, earthquake) or other, could result in major Emergency L possible in the short term and to communicate the value restructuring of the program and risk to the of investing in long term risk reduction. sustainability of investments prioritised so far. Social and Environmental* Continued GoT-led demolitions of structures in Msimbazi Valley and reputational risk to the World World Bank country director and CMU team have met Bank/DfID. with the ministers from MLHHSD and NEMC to inform them of the potential risks to the Bank’s portfolio from Social A number of flood mitigation activities considered the ongoing demolitions. WB social safeguards policies Safeguards under the program, such as dredging, removal will apply to any TURP activities. M of dredged material, vegetation removal, and Environmental construction of retention basins, may have The program will identify if environmental impact Risk environmental impacts on local flora and fauna. assessments are necessary as early as possible and Additionally, additional studies and surveys design flood mitigation measures in the context of local may contribute to program delays in achieving environment and ecosystem services. In all cases, WB objectives. environmental safeguard policies will be followed. Overall S Rating *=NEWLY ADDED RISK OR RISK TAKING // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 62 // Urban Resilience Annual Report 2017 ANNEX III-DELIVERY CHAIN DFID PLEDGED USD 35M TURP TRUSTEE ACCOUNT PILLAR 1 PILLAR 3 Small Risk Government Risk Information PILLAR 2 Preparedness RESILIENCE Reduction Executed Risk and Data Risk Reduction SECRETARIAT and Emergency ACADEMY Actions Grant Reduction Grant Management Measures Management Emergency Resilience Technical Secretariat + Urban Exposure Risk Evaluation + Risk Mitigation Msimbazi River Urbanization Planning + Reviewers + ALLOCATED Mapping Pilots Info MGMT Academy Conferences USD 850,000 Revitalization Review Response Design USD 150,000 USD 1,480,000 USD 570,000 USD 500,000 USD 265,000 USD 105,000 USD 480,000 USD 230,000 International International International International International International International International International COMMITTED Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants USD 12,100 USD 43,200 USD 112,100 USD 16,400 USD 21,400 USD 16,000 USD 53,700 USD 45,700 USD 88,850 Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian ULTRA DESIGNS, Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants USA USD 22,200 USD 43,300 USD 44,800 USD 63,400 USD 18,900 USD 3,300 Humanitarian AGLEX Humanitarian Planet Labs, USA Open Street Map COWI TANZANIA TANZANIA Open Street Map USD 60,000 Team, USA USD 524,900 USD 128,500 Team, USA USD 524,900 USD 225,000 DARES DELFT University of Technology, ITC, Netherlands Technology, Spain USD 15,800 Netherlands USD 205,600 USD 199,700 Ordinance Survey International, UK USD 35,000 STITCHING DELTARES, Netherlands USD 45,000  ANNEXES 63 Prepared by for