City Profiles New York City, USA Climate Resilient Cities 47807 A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters I/ CIty DesCrIptIon New York City comprises five boroughs, each of which is coextensive with a county: The Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island. With over 8.2 million residents within an area of 322 square miles (830 km²), New York City is the most densely populated major city in the United States.1According to Census Bureau popu- lation estimates, New York City's population increased from 8,008,278 in April 2000 to 8,104,079 in July 2004. II/ prIorIty HazarDs/VulnerabIlItIes New York City has one of the most urbanized coastlines in the United States making it particularly vulnerable to rises in sea level that are expected to accompany increases in temperature. The vulnerabilities of this highly populated coastline city include the following: n Along much of the New York coast, sea level could rise significantly: estimates range from 11.8 to 37.5 inches in the 2080s (see figure 1). Such a rise in sea level Energy reduction can lead to flooding and complete inundation of low-lying areas, loss of coastal wetlands, erosion of beaches, and saltwater intrusion into lakes and rivers, and programs, street tree- will likely increase the vulnerability of coastal areas to storms and other severe weather patterns; planting programs, n Flooding could become more frequent and severe as the century progresses. According to one estimate (see figure 1), the probability of a "100-year flood" conversion of streetlights to may increase from once in 80 years (where it is today) to once in 43 years by the 2020s and up to once in 19 years by the 2050s; and more efficient technologies, n Low-lying and waterfront infrastructure could experience flooding. landfill methane recovery, use of alternative fuel vehicles, and solid waste recycling. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery City Profiles FIgure 1. Sea-Level Rise in Manhattan between 1900 and 2080 III/ aDaptatIon anD MItIgatIon Measures ­ Replace inefficient power plants; ­ Expand "Clean Distributed Generation"; and New York City has combined its adaptation and mitiga- ­ Promote renewable power. tion programs through PlaNYC. 3. Efficient buildings. Reduce energy consumption New York City Planning (PlaNYC) in buildings by 16.4 million metric tons of GHG. PlaNYC was launched in April 2007 and contains many ­ Improve the efficiency of existing buildings; objectives, goals, and programs to be reached by 2030. ­ Require efficient new buildings; Developed by the Mayor's office in partnership with ­ Develop and apply green energy codes; external experts and institutions,2 PlaNYC covers both ­ Increase the efficiency of appliances; and mitigation and adaptation measures. ­ Increase energy awareness through education and training. PlaNYC's main goal is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30 percent by 2030. The plan to reduce 4. Sustainable transportation. Enhance New York GHG is of course part of the mitigation effort (figure 2). City's transportation system to save 6.1 million met- The mitigation plan to reach the emissions reduction ric tons of GHG. goal is based on four initiatives: ­ Improve public transit; ­ Improve the efficiency of private vehicles and 1. Avoided sprawl. Attract 900,000 new residents by taxis; and 2030 to achieve an avoided 15.6 million metric tons ­ Decrease CO2 intensity of fuels. of GHG. ­ Develop sustainable, affordable housing; The adaptation plan is based on three initiatives: ­ Expand and improve mass transit; ­ Reclaim contaminated land; n Create an intergovernmental task force to pro- ­ Open waterways for recreation; tect all NYC's vital infrastructure, with the aim ­ Ensure energy supply; and of expanding adaptation strategies beyond the ­ Plant trees and provide more parks in the city area. protection of water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems to include all essential city in- 2. Clean power. Improve New York City's electricity frastructure; supply to save 10.6 million metric tons of GHG. n Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop 2 New York City, USA FIgure 2. Projected Impacts of NYC Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies area-specific strategies, with the aim of creating a n NYC Department of City Planning community planning process to engage all stake- n NYC Department of Design and Construction holders in specific climate adaptation strategies; and n NYC Department of Parks and Recreation n Launch a citywide strategic planning process for n NYC Mayor's Office of Long-Term Planning climate change adaptation. and Sustainability n Con Edison ­ electric company in NYC Development and Management of PlaNYC n Metropolitan Transit Authority To define the climate change action plan, both for n Regional Plan Association mitigation and adaptation, many stakeholders were interviewed. Private sector and civil society, including The PlaNYC mitigation and adaptation measures have environmental NGOs, were not included in the initial been selected through the following process cycle: round of interviews but will be included in the next. The stakeholders interviewed were: n Inventory of greenhouse gas for mitigation and of risks for adaptation, n Environmental Protection Agency Region II n Assess options, n Federal Emergency Management Agency n Decide, Region II n Monitor, and n US Army Corps of Engineers NY District n Reassess. n National Park Service, Gateway National Recre- ation Area The inventory of GHG has been done through tradi- n Port Authority of New York and New Jersey tional techniques.3 The inventory of risks has been done n New York State (NYS) Department of Environ- on the basis of scientific models (Global Climate Mod- mental els and Emissions Scenarios),4 regional climate scenarios Conservation for key variables, forecasts on extreme events, and high- n NYS Energy Research and Development impact scenarios (ice melting) (Rosenzweig et al., 2006). Authority n NYC Department of Environmental Protection To assess the adaptation options, specific guidelines for cli- n NYC Department of Health mate change adaptation measures have been developed: 3 City Profiles n Audit existing infrastructure, lifetimes, rehabilita- would also be used in the evacuation process, with fares tion cycles; and tolls waived. n Compare with regional climate change forecasts; n Determine thresholds and ranges of forecast sea Mitigation: gHg Inventory and plans level, temperature, hydrology; The inventory of NYC GHG emissions forewarned that n Evaluate potential adaptations policy through while there were steps that New York City could take to cost-benefit analysis and environmental impact adapt to warmer temperatures, the greatest urgency was assessment; to prevent further climate change by reducing the emis- n Define timeline: short, medium and long term; and sion of greenhouse gases. New York City plans to do the n Monitor and review climate indicators and pro- following: jections (~every three­five years). n Reduce its GHG emissions, which are currently On the basis of the assessment, recommendations will be as much as Ireland or Portugal emissions;7 defined on adaptation pathways, encouraging mitigation n Prepare for growth, because the average New and adaptation synergies, etc. Yorker has a much lower GHG footprint than the average American (a more dense New York City Rosenzweig et al. from NASA and Columbia University is itself an emission reduction strategy); and presented observations on NYC Department of Envi- n Learn by doing and promote the most effective ronmental Protection Climate Adaptation Assessment. model to other cities in the world. They found that to develop a successful plan on climate change, the following are needed: 5 The operation of New York City's homes, buildings, transportation systems, and vehicles, together with de- n Excellent local leadership; composition of solid waste, resulted in the net emission n Peer-reviewed science; of approximately 58.3 million metric tons of greenhouse n Collaboration with university centers and Federal gases in 2005. Figures 3 and 4 give a breakdown of agencies with strength in climate change; NYC's emissions by sector and source. n Regular technical and policy meetings; n Education and training: climate change work- shops for all staff; and n Important but precisely defined roles for research FIgure 3. NYC CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2005 and consultants. NYC Disaster Planning On the basis of a 1995 study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and more recent studies by Columbia Univer- sity and NASA,6 NYC prepared an emergency response plan in 2006. Among the findings, the studies concluded that a Category 3 hurricane could hit New York City, creating tremendous damages and requiring the evacua- tion of as many as 3 million people. If a disaster hit, a team of more than 34,000 city em- ployees would lead the mobilization effort, bringing resi- dents to evacuation shelters throughout the city. The Fire Department would assist in evacuating the elderly and Source: "Inventory of NYC Greenhouse Gas Emissions." April 2007, infirm from hospitals and nursing homes. Mass transit online at www.nyc.gov. 4 New York City, USA FIgure 4. NYC CO2 Emissions by Source, 2005 FIgure 5. Citywide CO2-equivalent Source: "Inventory of NYC Greenhouse Gas Emissions." April 2007, online at www.nyc.gov. According to the inventory, in 2005 New York City's total Source: "Inventory of NYC Greenhouse Gas Emissions." April 2007, GHG emissions were 58.3 million metric tons of carbon online at www.nyc.gov. dioxide equivalent (CO2-e). Of these, 79 percent were caused by the consumption of energy by buildings in the FIgure 6. CO2-e Reduction Measures by Share, 2006 city, in contrast to the national average of 34 percent.8 By 2030, in a business-as-usual scenario, citywide CO2-e emissions are projected to increase by 27 percent to ap- proximately 74 million metric tons per year (figure 5). IV/ outCoMe/IMpaCts Reduction Measures to Date New York City has already begun implementing mea- sures that contribute to reducing the City Government's GHGemissions.Thesemeasuresincludeenergyreduction programs, street tree-planting programs, conversion of streetlights to more efficient technologies, landfill methane recovery, use of alternative fuel vehicles, and solid waste recycling. Figure 6 illustrates each measure's contribution Source: "Inventory of NYC Greenhouse Gas Emissions." April 2007, to the total annual avoidance of 446,000 metric tons of online at www.nyc.gov. CO2-eemissions.Thesemeasuresdemonstratetheprogres- sive policies of the past 10 years and point toward the fact that with more concentrated effort New York will be able are projected to result in the avoided emission or reduc- to achieve even more substantial reductions in the future. tion of 404,000 metric tons of CO2-e each year by 2017. By 2017, these measures are expected to result in only Future Planned Reduction Measures a small reduction of CO2-e levels below 2006 of 0.3 Measures to be implemented between 2006 and 2017 percent. Without these measures emissions would have 5 City Profiles increased by almost 10 percent. Figure 7 illustrates the 1 Data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2004. projected reductions by share. 2 Mayor´s Office of Operation with several consultants, i.e., ICLEI, Columbia University, the Clinton Climate FIgure 7. Projected CO2-e Reduction Measures Initiative. by Share, 2017 3 "Inventoryof NYCGreenhouseGasEmissions."April 2007, online at www.nyc.gov. 4 Global Climate Models characterize climate uncertainty(IPCC,2007)andGHGemissionscenarios span a range of development futures population, gross domestic product, and technology (IPCC, 2000). 5 Seminar at the World Bank, Washington, D.C., on January 23, 2008. 6 Rosenzweig and Gornitz's two-year study used the Goddard Institute's Atmosphere-Ocean Model, a computer program that simulates the Earth's climate. Based on previous research by Columbia University scientists for the U.S. Global Change Research Program in 2001 and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this model projects a sea-level rise of 15 to 19 inches by the 2050s in New York City. 7 "Inventoryof NYCGreenhouseGasEmissions."April Source: "Inventory of NYC Greenhouse Gas Emissions." April 2007, 2007, online at www.nyc.gov. online at www.nyc.gov. 8 NewYork'scitywideCO2-etotalfiguresexcludeemissions notes from aviation and marine freight shipping, as these This "City Profile" is part of Climate Resilient Cities: A two sources are not routinely included in city emissions Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters, published by the inventories. However, because these sources represent World Bank. The analysis presented here is based on data significant CO2-e emissions, and because New York available at the time of writing. For the latest information serves as a major regional air travel and marine freight related to the Primer and associated materials, including hub,emissionsfromthesetwosourceshavebeenincluded the City Profiles, please visit www.worldbank.org/eap/ in the GHG inventory report: from 1995 to 2005, CO2-e climatecities. Suggestions for updating these profiles may emissions increased by a total of 8.5 percent. be sent to climatecities@worldbank.org. © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. 6 New York City, USA Sustainable Development East Asia and Pacific Region 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, USA Telephone: 202 473 1000 Facsimile: 202 477 6391 Web Site: www.worldbank.org/eapsd and www.worldbank.org/eapurban 7