R esilience or R esignation : Facing Droughts and Floods in Rural, Poor Bolivia Financed by © 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522- 2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Publication design: Blue Robin Designs, LLC. Knowledge Management Lead: Kerri Cox Photo Credits: World Bank Cover Photo Caption: Paria Soracachi is a municipality in the antiplano (high plateau), very close to the city of Oruro. It is an area currently affected by drought, however some communities in the municipality were affected by floods in 2014 and 2015. Only the people who have the economic possibilities to buy a water pump are the ones who can irrigate their plots. Back Cover Photo Caption: Community members participating in the carrot harvest, before the drought becomes more intense. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by a World Bank team composed of Miriam Muller (Social Scientist, GPVDR), María Eugenia Genoni (Senior Economist, GPVDR), Oscar Anil Ishizawa Escudero (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GSU10) and Úrsula Casabonne (Consultant). Important inputs were also contributed by Marco Alcaraz (Consultant) and Johanan Rivera Fuentes (Consultant). The study was prepared in close collaboration with the Social and Economic Policy Analysis Unit (UDAPE, Unidad de Análisis de Políticas Sociales y Económicas) and the Ministry of Development Planning (MDP) of Bolivia. The fieldwork was carried out by CIES Internacional, by a team led by Mariela Garcia Miranda, and funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). The opinions, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the Governments they represent. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Int ro d u c t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2. M e t h o d o l o g y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3. F i n d i n g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4 I. Floods and droughts in Bolivia: Impacts on assets, context, and endowments................................................................................14 Perceptions of the differences in impact of droughts and floods, and changes over time.........................................................................................17 The impact of climate shocks on the context, and on physical and natural assets...............................................................................................18 The impact of climate shocks on human endowments (education and health services)............................................................................................19 II. Risk management strategies.................................................20 Individual approaches in managing risks...................................................21 The role of indigenous knowledge in risk management strategies...............24 The need for ‘hard’ investments..................................................................27 Local leaders as gate keepers in risk management....................................28 Migration as a climate change response strategy............................................29 III. More than yet another dimension affected by the shock: The role of agency........................................................................33 Indications of decreased agency: Pessimism, the sense of lack of control, and frustration..............................................................................................33 How shocks affect poor people’s agency...............................................34 How limited agency affects risk management: Despair, resignation, and passivity..............................................................................................36 Perceptions of institutional aid and support...............................................39 Conclusions...........................................................41 Refe re n ce s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 4 4 1. Introduction ‘Resilience: Ability of the life system and its components to anticipate, absorb, adapt or recover from the effects of an adverse event in a timely and efficient manner, including by ensuring the conservation, restoration or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions.’ Supreme Decree regulating the Law No. 602 of Risk Management, Bolivia Yolanda¹ is a 46 year old woman who lives with her Pedro is a 71 year old man. He used to live with husband and her six children. After the floods, she his wife, but she became ill, and their children left her community to live in a rental unit nearby. took her to the city of Cochabamba. At present, he Since then, she has been struggling because she no lives alone; he has eight children, all married. He longer has a house or a plot of land to work. Day has been affected by the drought and has lost his after day, she has to look for work as a day laborer, potato and corn crops. Now, he is surviving only and her income is insufficient for the sustenance on some vegetable crops. He is ill, suffering from of her family. Before the floods, she used to have a hernia and Chagas disease; he no longer has a tranquil life; cultivating her own produce and the strength to sow, but still continues to work working the land. She had enough food for her his field. He is simply awaiting the rain, in the children; she also had her own house and fruit hope that the weather improves. He is resigned to trees. She expresses great sorrow regarding the staying in his community until his death because difficult situation her family is in. Her economic he is most accustomed to living in the countryside, needs, her worries and suffering, have made her ill: but hopes that his children will come back to their she now has headaches constantly. She feels the fields to sow. He will go on sowing as long as he burden of supporting the family. Despite the fact can. her husband also works, their earnings are never enough to make ends meet. Woman affected by floods Man affected by droughts 1 1 For confidentiality reasons, the names of all the study participants were modified by the authors of this report. 5 Bolivia is a country with a vast geographical diversity, from a high plateau (altiplano) that reaches 3,000 meters above sea level to valleys at mid-altitude and tropical plains . This diversity gives Bolivia a wide variety of temperatures and microweathers, which is accompanied by a high risk of adverse weather events. Bolivia has historically been exposed to floods and droughts. Approximately four out of 10 people live in flood-prone plots, and more than 16 percent of the population live in areas at risk of drought. 2 Accompanying this geographic diversity, Bolivia has a large indigenous population, comprising more than 40 different ethnic groups of varying sizes and with diverse livelihoods strategies. Moreover, despite significant progress in the last decade, a large proportion of Bolivia’s population are not able to afford a basic food basket (about 16.8 percent in 2015). 3 The levels of poverty are significantly higher for indigenous and rural populations. 4 During the last decade, the magnitude of Bolivia’s weather patterns has undergone significant changes; extreme rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts have been pushing the poorest and most marginalized communities beyond their ability to respond. According to several studies, Bolivia is one of the Andean region countries that most suffers the consequences of weather change (García et al., 2007; Jansen et al., 2009; Winters, 2012). Weather change is already causing the acceleration of glacier melting, increasing the likelihood and intensity of floods. The expected impacts on the Andean countries are serious: unprecedented temperature rise in tropical areas, intensification of the El Niño phenomenon, and droughts in tropical and subtropical areas (Cai et al., 2014) . There is a considerable amount of literature documenting the consequences of weather shocks on income and poverty . 5 The evidence shows that weather events such as droughts and floods have negative impacts on communities, and cause destruction of infrastructure, loss of savings and assets, etc. The extent of the weather event impacts depends on the ability of families to manage these risks, not only after they occur, but also before they occur by taking measures to prevent or minimize their impact. The recurrence of this type of events also influences risk management; the condition of poverty in itself affects the strategies employed. It is important to note that poverty can amplify weather change impacts and can lead to a vicious circle of chronic poverty. Although causal evidence is more limited in Bolivia, several studies confirm this link between droughts and floods, and poverty (UDAPE, 2014 and 2016). 2 Estimates based on the Municipal Risk Index (MRI) developed by the Ministry of Development Planning (MPD) of Bolivia and the World Bank in 2012 (World Bank, 2014). 3 Despite the significant progress observed during the last decade, in 2015, approximately 38.6% of the population were living in poverty and 16.8% in extreme poverty (official data from the Household Survey 2015 conducted by the National Statistics Institute of Bolivia). 4 In 2013, approximately seven out of 10 of the extreme poor were living in rural areas. In contrast, only two out of 10 of the non-poor were living in rural areas. Moreover, 64 percent of the household heads in extreme poor households were indigenous, compared to 22 percent of household heads in the non-poor household (Calculations using official poverty methodology using Household Survey 2013). 5 See for instance Baez and Santos, 2008; Premand and Vakis, 2010; Rodriguez-Oreggia et al., 2013; Datt and Hoogeveen, 2003; Yamamura, 2013; Sen, 2003; Krishna and Dercon, 2004; Carter et al., 2007; Cole et al., 2013; Elbers et al., 2007; Hallegatte et al., 2016. 6 Beyond material losses, being exposed to a weather event such as floods and droughts can also have negative effects on psychological wellbeing . A flood that destroys a family’s house or a drought that slowly depletes a family’s food stocks and livestock, can be a stressful and disheartening event. Some coping responses can exacerbate a sense of loss, such as the migration of a husband or of the children to seek alternative sources of income. The impact on these psychological aspects can also affect the ability of households to manage these risks and can perpetuate poverty. However, the evidence of these links is limited as household surveys usually do not provide information of this nature. The aim of this study is to supplement the quantitative evidence of the impact of droughts and floods on the welfare of Bolivian households by exploring the impacts of these severe weather events which affect psychological factors, that in turn are important when it comes to preventing and responding to these events. Specifically, this study analyzes the impacts of severe weather events on intangible dimensions, such as people’s action-taking and decision- making capacity, and their expectations about the future, which are important elements in risk management and, in turn, a key factor in households’ vulnerability to poverty traps. The analysis focuses on understanding this complexity in the context of poor communities that are highly vulnerable to the consequences of droughts and floods in Bolivia by means of a qualitative exploration of the perceptions, experiences, and responses to these events of some of its inhabitants. For this purpose, women and men exposed to floods and droughts, as well as community leaders from 12 communities were recruited as participants. These were selected on the basis of two criteria: (i) high risk of droughts or floods, and (ii) high level of poverty. Individual in-depth interviews as well as focus groups were conducted with the participants; the data was recorded, transcribed, and coded (see more details on methodology in the next section). Recent reports on weather change adaptation strategies in Bolivia suggests that interventions are focused on providing ‘hard’ support to communities to mitigate risk and promote the adaptation to weather change (Vidaurre de la Riva et al., 2013; UDAPE, 2015; Oxfam, 2009; Morales, 2010). However, it is clear from the review of the literature that less emphasis has been placed on the intangible aspects of weather adaptation of poor and farming communities, which have to do with building people’s agency, self-efficacy, and psychological well-being, crucial elements in the design of weather risk management and adaptation strategies. The results from this study cannot be generalized to the entire Bolivian population and should be interpreted with care Yet, they highlight the importance of considering these intangible elements that drive families’ decisions, in the context of designing policies for managing weather risk. Interventions and policies aimed at improving risk management in very poor communities should take into account the role of these internal factors in the reception and adoption of solutions, and in the likelihood that the investments could contribute to social mobility. The report is organized as follows: The next section will give a brief overview of the research methods used. The third section discusses the main findings related to immediate impacts (physical losses as well as services impacted), risk management, and the role of agency. Lastly, 7 the fourth section presents the conclusions reached. 2. Methodology The qualitative work was focused on the unpacking and understanding of three main issues . Firstly, it sought to document the immediate impacts of droughts and floods on different dimensions of the welfare of the poor population in terms of the context, assets, and endowments. For example, inquiries were made on how these events affected people’s access to public utilities and opportunities; their social dynamics and the interactions between people. Secondly, inquiries were made on risk management strategies and preventive measures taken, how they vary among groups, and the resources and support available for the affected population. Thirdly, the most intangible aspects associated with agency were explored in detail, as well as how these intangible factors affect risk management strategies and the population’s ability to escape poverty. In order to answer these questions, the study used qualitative methods focusing on the life stories and experiences of the people affected by droughts and floods. Qualitative methods are appropriate because they allow for a detailed inquiry on the effect of weather shocks on people’s agency, intra-family dynamics, and other personal experiences. Thus, qualitative methods help to unpack the individual decision-making processes and map the complex links between the weather events and poverty, complementing the existing quantitative evidence of their impact. For the analysis, 12 communities were selected from 12 municipalities across Bolivia (Figure 1). Of these communities, six were identified for the study of droughts, and another six for the study of floods. The municipalities were selected on the basis of two criteria: (i) high risk of droughts or floods; and (ii) high levels of poverty. The 30 Bolivian municipalities most exposed to floods and droughts were pre-selected on the basis of the Municipal Risk Index. 6 Based on this index with poverty statistics at municipal level, the chosen municipalities were those with a moderate rate of poverty above 50 percent and an incidence of extreme poverty above or equal to 30 percent (both measures based on income and unmet basic needs (UBN)). The selection 6 The Municipal Risk Index (MRI), developed by the Ministry of Development Planning (MPD) of Bolivia and the World Bank in 2012, is a measure of the municipalities’ exposure to natural hazards and of their vulnerability to withstand or cope with disasters when they occur, corresponding to the extent or level of potential losses in emergency or disaster events. It provides a ranking which allows the comparison of the level of risk (and the variables that constitute it) of a municipality with that of others in order to facilitate identification, analysis, and decision making (World Bank, 2014). 8 process also took into account the need to generate a list that would cover different geographical areas, as well as the possibility of the research team having access to those communities to carry out the data collection. Figure 2 shows the selected municipalities, and Table 1 shows a summary of the selected communities within them. Figure 1. Map of the selected municipalities 9 Table 1. Summary of the communities included in the study Available Support/access to Approximate number Main activity of Municipality Community Language services And the community of families the community utilities Communities affected by drought 1 Mizque Puca Pila RMU, Community Spanish/little 40 Agriculture Electricity leader Quechua 2 Tapacarí Condor RMU, Community Spanish/ 18/20 Agriculture/ None Huaycha/ leader Quechua mining labor at Tujñiri limestone mines 3 Tacobamba Peregira RMU, Community Quechua/ 50/78 Agriculture Primary school leader little Spanish for self- Pampa/ consumption Huajchy 4 Charagua Ipitacupae/ RMU, Municipal Spanish 15/86 Livestock Primary school; Tarenda Council farming; health post subsistence agriculture 5 Macharetí Carantaity/ RMU; Port Spanish 20 Agriculture and Primary school; Totoral Authority small animal health post breeding for self- consumption 6 Achacachi Tola Tola RMU, Community Spanish/little 400 Agriculture and Electricity; leaders Aymara milk production; primary school; laborers; drivers health post 10 Available Support/access to Approximate number Main activity of Municipality Community Language services And the community of families the community utilities Communities affected by floods 7 Soracachi Challapampa Team only Spanish 51 Agriculture Electricity; Grande secondary school 8 Las Carreras Tierras del RMU, Municipal Spanish 15/56 Agriculture Electricity Señor/Taraya Council for self- Water consumption and as economic activity 9 Villa Tunarí Palometas RMU, Municipal Spanish 80 Agriculture; School (which Council labor at got flooded) neighboring plots of land 10 Santa Rosa San Cristóbal Municipal Spanish 36 Livestock Primary school Land Registry; farming community leader 11 San Ignacio San Miguel RMU; Office Spanish 300 Agriculture and Primary school; de la Pera of the Mayor; small animal health post Subcentral TIPNIS breeding for self- consumption 12 Apolo Catalina Sur Office of the Spanish 35 Coca Electricity Mayor; RMU cultivation; agriculture for self- consumption The qualitative study combined in-depth individual interviews (with affected women and men, and community leaders and indigenous authorities) and focus groups (with men and women of the community) . 7 Table 2 summarizes the research sample. The study was designed and planned by a World Bank team with the support of the Social and Economic Policy Analysis Unit (UDAPE) and the Vice-Ministry of Civil Defense (VIDECI, Viceministerio de Defensa Civil), and data collection was conducted by a research company in Bolivia. Four local women researchers carried out all individual and group interviews, and all interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded. 7 The resources available did not allow for an ethnographic approach in this study. Given the reluctance of participants in some communities (especially women) to share their personal experience with strangers, an ethnographic approach would have helped in overcoming this barrier. Certainly, a longer exposure to those communities would have helped to contextualize and understand some of the emerging issues to greater breadth and depth. 11 Table 2. Research sample In-depth individual Focus groups with people In-depth interviews with key Field interviews with people affected by weather shocks informants observation affected by weather shocks Women Men Indigenous Community Women Men authorities leaders Per community 1 1 1 2 5 5 Total interviews 12 24 60 60 156 Total focal groups 12 12 24 Fieldwork was carried out in May-June, 2016 . Access to communities was facilitated by the local Mayor’s Offices and Risk Management Units (RMU). Within the communities, research participants (who qualified for interviews after completing a basic set of screening questions) were recruited with the help of local leaders. All participants were clearly informed of the content and aim of the research, and verbal consent was obtained from all of them. Also, before starting, the participants were informed that the interviews and focus groups would be recorded, and that the information collected would be treated as confidential and anonymous, and would only be used for purposes of analysis. 8 The interviews were performed in the interviewee’s language . Spanish is spoken in most of the communities selected, but in Tacobamba (Potosí) and Tapacarí (Cochabamba), interviews were performed in Quechua, with the support of a local translator. After the first series of interviews, key issues emerging from the data were identified. By the end of the fieldwork, the local researchers shared the main themes from interviews and field observation during a workshop, based on which the analysis matrix used for data coding was developed. The following section summarizes the main findings from the qualitative analysis . In reading and interpreting these results, it is important to consider the limitations inherent of any qualitative research. First of all, qualitative research does not rely on large and representative samples. Furthermore, informants and interviewees may report selectively. Also, qualitative research cannot establish causal relationships in the same way quantitative analysis does, posing challenges in terms of the generalization of findings, validity, broader implications, and reliability. Consequently, these analyses should be complemented with quantitative studies and other relevant information. The value added of qualitative research is an in-depth exploration of relevant themes associated to certain phenomena. Qualitative data collection is particularly relevant when analyzing sensitive issues in-depth and when aiming to generate hypotheses. 8 The sample deliberately excluded minors, with one exception made during fieldwork given the indication that that case may be particularly information-rich. In that one case, consent was requested from his guardians. 12 3. Findings I. Floods and droughts in Bolivia: Impacts on assets, context, and endowments The conceptual framework of this study (Figure 2) illustrates, in a simplified manner, the links between the possible consequences of natural events such as droughts and floods, the households’ income and their condition of poverty, and the role of risk management. This conceptual framework closely follows the discussions presented in the World Development Report 2014: Managing Risk for Development (World Bank, 2013), and the regional study Left Behind: Chronic Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (Vakis et al., 2015). The relations presented in this study have been reworked and are intended to assist in guiding the discussion and interpretation of the findings, with an understanding of the limitations in fully capturing the complexity of these problems. 13 Figure 2. Conceptual Framework Risk of droughts or floods Context Risk management Human endowments People’s agency Income and poverty Weather events affect the welfare of households and their condition of poverty through three main channels . First, weather events such as droughts and floods tend to affect entire communities and the context in which their members live and work . Several studies about Bolivia document the impact of droughts on natural assets, including loss of vegetation, decrease in soil fertility, displacement of crops to other areas, loss of seed production, and decrease in land available for farming, among others (Morales 2010; Vidaurre de la Riva et al., 2013). Moreover, floods have led to crop losses and, depending on their intensity, to the loss of soil cover and of livestock (Morales, 2010). In the American Andean region, global warming has led to the retreat of glaciers, which in turn causes water shortages and soil erosion (Kronik and Verner 2010; Postigo, 2014). Weather shocks also result in the loss of physical assets, such as roads, rural paths, houses, irrigation systems, communications, etc. For example, Kronik and Verner (2010) describe the damage caused by severe floods to infrastructure in the communities of Mecapaca and Palca, in Bolivia. In Mecapaca, floods swept away the community, destroying crops and houses to such an extent that it would take the villagers two years to clean the debris and be able to resume farming. In Palca, floods destroyed an old system of ditches dug into the mountainside, cutting off the main water source of the community. 14 Besides their impact on the households and on the settings or contexts where families live and undertake activities, droughts and floods can directly affect assets and household endowments. This includes the loss of animals and the destruction of houses, as well as impacts on health and education services. The nutrition of people is likely to be affected after these events, since they have an impact on food availability and prices (Baez et al., 2010). In the case of Bolivia, Morales (2010) documents the increase of illnesses and malnutrition due to stagnant and contaminated water resulting from floods. Such loss of assets not only has immediate effects on the ability to generate income, but also long-term effects if the events entail the deterioration of health and education levels of future generations. Poverty affects risk management, the context, the accumulation of endowments, and the individual’s state of mind. The arrows in both directions in the diagram point out that the effectiveness of the communities’ risk management measures have a bearing on poverty and, in turn, that the factors determining poverty contribute to the choice and adoption of risk management measures by the communities affected by weather shocks. One of the most important contributions of this work is the significant impact that weather shocks have in terms of psychological impacts that can affect agency. The concept of agency refers to people’s capability to make decisions and to transform the decisions into the desired actions and results (World Bank, 2011). As will be illustrated further on, weather shocks not only have an effect on the agency of the poor, but more significantly, decreased agency can become a key barrier to effective coping with weather shocks and in managing risks. Figure 2 shows that the impact of droughts and floods depends on how people manage those risks. Risk management requires both preparedness or anticipation actions, and the capacity to respond once the risk materializes (World Bank, 2013). Central elements of risk management before materialization include the level of knowledge and information, prevention measures, and insurance. Once the risk becomes a reality, people take measures in order to deal with what has happened by deploying the resources of knowledge, protection, and insurance obtained in the preparedness phase. The relationship between response and preparedness becomes closer, especially when these risks materialize in a recurrent and changing way, as is happening with the observed severe weather shocks. Perceptions of the differences in impact of droughts and floods, and changes over time The interviews reveal the many dimensions of negative impact that both droughts and floods exert on communities’ and families’ productive assets and endowments, on education and health services. As also evidenced in the existing literature, poorer communities are the most vulnerable to the effects of weather change; they have fewer resources to adapt quickly to or recover from a crisis. Also, frequently, they live in more isolated and more at-risk areas because 15 those are usually the most affordable: on dwellings located along streams which get flooded, on slopes prone to landslides, or on agricultural lands with limited access to water. The two types of weather events discussed in this study have different processes and impacts. Floods are sudden and their impact is abrupt, while the effects of droughts appear slowly and gradually. The river has entered with hatred. It has Floods often arrive very drastically and without much entered and has swept away everything. We prior notice. Participants in the study describe how had nothing. We had no idea the flooding they were taken by surprise, often overnight, by flash would be like that. That is how it is. We have flooding. Floods can also be extremely dangerous: no way of knowing that [flooding] would they can destroy roads, infrastructure, livelihoods occur. We would have done something, but assets, agriculture production, and other goods, as we did nothing. It was at night. At night we well as kill animals and people. Families are forced to had to get things out of the house. leave their homes until floodwaters recede. Families affected by floods can lose all of their belongings Woman affected by floods, 44 years, Las (their homes, their animals, their farms) immediately Carreras and have to seek other means of subsistence in order to pay for shelter and secure food. In comparison, communities affected by droughts experience less drastic impacts but endure effects which are more extended over time, since they live and cope with the situation gradually. However, the affected population also experiences anxiety and despair due to the decline and loss of their livestock, and their inability to grow crops and raise animals in the same ways and in the same places as they had previously. Participants share a widespread perception that the weather The rain used to come in its due season, in time, but now it varies has changed . But not only has it a lot; it may rain in any moment... Every year is different; there changed, this change is accompanied has been a great variation lately. Sometimes, when you least by a significant lack of ability to expect it, it is cold or it may even rain, it rains in any moment, it predict, and thus greater insecurity. is different from years ago. The weather has completely changed, Interviewees expressed how they and this makes our production vary a great deal. can no longer “read” or predict their context as they used to. This lack of Male leader of a community affected by floods, 51 years, Las ability to predict is accompanied by Carreras a feeling of loss of control and loss of security. 16 The impact of weather shocks on the context, and on physical and natural assets The impacts of weather shocks on assets is very well documented in the literature. The findings in this study confirm the substantial material damage and loss of assets caused by floods and droughts. Villagers in both types of communities (those affected by droughts and those affected by floods) witness the violent destruction of all their belongings, savings, and animals. Interviewees affected by floods described significant physical losses, including their belongings and dwellings, as well as the loss of economic investments, such as crops, animals, and seeds (Morales 2010, Kronik and Verner, 2010). Additionally, floods harm soil fertility which means that residents in the meantime had to seek alternative means of subsistence (Morales 2010, Vidaurre de la Riva et al., 2013). In areas affected by droughts, crops often fail to be harvested and thus dry out, and people’s labor and investment is lost. Others describe how they had to sell their animals or pre-emptively slaughter them (Morales, 2010, Vidaurre de la Riva et al., 2013). Importantly, the study also exposes some negative effects on social cohesion caused by the events: Some participants refer to increased levels of conflict at the community level as a result of economic stress. The extreme weather events cause losses in assets as clearly documented. When people own fewer resources than they need or had, they become stressed, which often ignites or triggers conflicts between neighbors, and also within families (Agnew, 2012; Hsiang et al., 2013; Ranson, 2012; Yun et al., 2010). Additionally, given the need to prioritize one’s own family and survival in the context of straitened resources, mutual support and cooperation may decline. The impact of weather shocks on human endowments (education and health services) There is a large body of evidence showing the negative effects of weather shocks on endowments (such as health and education); this study uncovers the channels through which these There are no children even for school; there two dimensions are impacted negatively. In the are very few, really very few students, because communities surveyed — which are among the they have all gone to the city, as there was no poorest in Bolivia — basic services were greatly produce at all. affected by weather events. Physical isolation worsened due to flooding further impeding access Woman affected by droughts (FGD), to markets and service delivery Tacobamba Floods may impact access to education in several ways. Firstly, floods can cause material damage to schools or completely submerge the school; 17 children would have to wait until the water recedes ...children have to walk long distances to go to before being able to attend school once more. school, they have to pass a dangerous river in the Due to the blocking of access roads, children may rainy season...Some children even have to swim to also be prevented from reaching schools or access cross the river. When the river is too strong we are may have become extremely dangerous (in one in danger, children can miss school. community visited as part of this study, children had to swim across the river to reach the school). Woman affected by floods (FGD), Apolo As a consequence, this often causes school [Drought] indeed affects education. When there is desertion in the medium- and long-terms. Finally, drought, there is no money to buy school supplies. another effect of floods on schooling uncovered When the teacher asks, there is no money by the study is related to the loss in livelihoods, available, we need to borrow from our neighbors leaving families without means to send children to or sell whatever meager produce we have or our school. small animals to pay for school materials. In communities affected by droughts, schools Man affected by drought, 35 years, Achacachi usually do not suffer infrastructure damage, but agricultural and livestock production of families are impacted. Thus, families may not be equipped to buy school supplies necessary to send their children to school. Similarly, a lack of water supply may lead families to prefer not to send children to school since they will not have properly washed clothes. Finally, migration (in both types of communities) leads to a reduction in the communities’ inhabitants and an insufficient number of students for schools to remain operational . Schools are forced to close or to operate with a very small number of students and just one teacher. In addition, the interviews also revealed that many parents remove their children from school because they need the extra labor to be able to meet their basic needs. In the absence of income from their farms, children (adolescents) may have to find salaried work, which could include having to find work outside their communities. Weather events also have a negative impact on the population’s health and nutritional status by affecting the food supply of families and We only drink the water from the Pérez, from that animals. Contamination of drinking water, river… Actually, children are sometimes affected by it; infections, diarrhea, and malnutrition in the they vomit, have diarrhea; children suffer from all that. aftermath of a flood are commonly mentioned This year, three children have died during the water in the interviews as consequences of floods. rising, during the wet season. Water rises and then In those communities that currently do not starts receding, so rotten plants appear that affect host a health center, roads may be blocked human beings, and all this affects us, but we are used or impassable due to floods. In these cases, to it, so we drink the water. But all the time we ask for accessing health centers in neighboring sewage, for drinking water to reach the communities. communities may become challenging. Relatedly, health care professionals may not be Community leader, 35 years old, San Ignacio 18 able to visit remote communities. Also, families’ reduction in income may negatively impact their capacity to pay for transport or for medical consultations. II. Risk management strategies The impact of weather shocks largely depends on the risk management capacity of the exposed population . The impact of weather shocks may reduce resilience, i.e., the capacity societies have to withstand, cope with, and face weather variability and shocks, and to recover from them. Risk management requires both preparedness or anticipation measures, and response capacity once the risk has materialized (World Bank, 2013). Individual approaches in managing risks Although droughts and floods affect entire communities, the interviews indicate that the most common strategies to prevent and address these events are individual rather than communal . In general, families feel they are alone in facing weather-related risks, and therefore try to get ahead on their own. In the face of floods, families first look after themselves, and then try to help their neighbors. With regards to droughts — events that develop gradually — an even more individual approach is observed among families. In this sense, the household unit is seen as the first instance of support, which aims to protect its members (especially the most vulnerable) and enables them to invest in the future. Despite the individual approach to prevention and risk management, in some communities the people interviewed referred to the practice of ayni (reciprocal work) in sowing and harvesting . They share, lend, and exchange food and, in some cases, they make a communal potluck (olla popular). In one of the communities surveyed in this study, interviewees described how villagers helped each other to dig up their houses after a flood. Community work has also been reported for the recovery of lands that had become unproductive as a result of rising rivers. Also, in some communities, with guidance from their leaders, the villagers carry out organized communal preventive tasks to mitigate natural disasters. These include, for example, building embankments in the case of floods, and searching for underground water with the aid of specialized companies and equipment in the case of droughts. 19 Box 1: Prevention strategies applied by the visited communities Informants share various preventive measures they implement to cope with the effects of floods and droughts . Families cultivate and store food for times of scarcity, which is a way of ensuring their sustenance. In the valleys, a large portion of the harvest goes through a drying and dehydration process to be stored for up to five years. In the high plateau, potato flour (chuño) together with other dehydrated vegetables undergo the same process; a similar or smaller portion is set aside for sale in order to cover routine necessary expenses. Animal breeding (for e.g., cows, sheep, and chicken) is a subsistence strategy adopted in some households, and the animals are sold one by one when the families are in need of cash. Besides, this practice allows them to have meat for their own consumption, which can also be dehydrated and covered with salt (i.e. made into jerky) for preservation and storage. With regards to rising rivers and floods, people describe several prevention strategies, including building retaining walls to hold back river overflows, raising the floor level in their homes, purchasing canoes, making levee banks for containment, storing more food and at safer locations, reaping an earlier harvest in order to ensure the sustenance of the family, seeking plots of land at higher altitude, taking their animals to the highlands in advance, and maintaining communication with other areas to determine whether the water level will rise in case of rainfall, among others. Similarly, in the case of droughts, the study participants listed several prevention strategies, including farming in other lands with irrigation, reducing the size of the plot of land sown and the number of animals bred, changing crops in hopes of a faster production, sowing small plots of land scattered in different places in order to avoid losing the entire production, diversifying their income through other activities, such as handmade weaving, among others. Consistent with the literature, this study finds that while certainly droughts (and also floods) affect everyone in these communities, there are very marked differences in the ways people manage risks, depending on factors such as gender, family status, age, and socioeconomic level. Morales (2010) comprehensive study on the impacts of weather change on vulnerable communities in the four major “ecogeographic” regions finds that negative impact of weather change events is stronger among households of lower socioeconomic status. The study finds that the poorest families in the flood regions were judged to be less able to protect themselves (because of poor housing, lack of boats, etc.) from generalized flooding of entire communities. It was also found that households headed by single women (with no males of working age), elderly people, or with male members unable to work, find it more difficult to cope with climatic hazards. Similarly, Ashwill et al. (2011) finds that women and men have differences in exposure and response to weather change in Bolivia. While men focus on large scale interventions in the community (for example, river defense barriers, irrigation), and on migration or the search for work as day 20 laborers, women tend to focus more on improved and innovative immediate practices (such as on the search for alternative sources of water supply, the protection of local assets, planting new crop varieties or complementing their traditional income with other local activities). The UDAPE study (2014) highlights gender differences in terms of the role of women and men in an emergency. Men focus on roles requiring strength and also on communal and cleaning work, while women focus on organizing, looking after and caring for the family, as well as on efforts aimed at protecting their assets, harvesting foods, and setting up the reconstruction of the family dwelling. At the community level, the UDAPE report (2014) points out that over the past few years, women have been taking on more and more proactive roles, increasing their social involvement and turning them into community agents. With regards to gender, strategies to cope with weather events generally differ between men and As a woman, one thinks what to cook women given their different social roles. First of every single day; men go to the chaco, all, it is usually the men who migrate temporarily arrive at noon and you have to give in the search for work, and it is usually the women them lunch ... We women think more who remain with the children and in the community. than men... I cannot wait for my Relatedly, according to the interviewees, women are husband to tell me “so and so”; I have the ones who tend to get more distressed at the to manage if he leaves; see and look immediate impact of weather shocks. They are the for things on my own. ones who have to deal with rationing and cooking food, fetching drinking water, and looking after the Woman affected by floods, 48 years, different members of the family and the cattle. They Charagua worry deeply about the well-being of their children and shared these concerns vividly in the interviews. I have seen single mothers that with Single mothers seem to be particularly affected by so much sacrifice they provide. Then weather shocks, because of the limited support they they lose everything. have available when facing the effects of weather shocks. Moreover, single mothers struggle to divide Female community leader affected their time between farm work, remunerated temporary by drought, 49 years, Machareti employment, and care. While many of the interviewees can relate to that particular hardship, they also admit Mothers suffer a lot at home, you see, that in a crisis, each family will tend to prioritize looking there’s nowhere to bring water from, after their own. with the children... Men work, they go out to other places, so women suffer... The elderly are another group particularly vulnerable Men don’t know anything, they don’t to the effects of weather shocks. Due to the migration know what is needed, they don’t know of the younger people, many elderly people in these anything; the woman always knows. rural communities are left without family support. This has negative impacts on their capacity to deal with Woman affected by droughts (FGD), weather change but also more broadly on their quality Mizque 21 of life since they lack support and care in multiple dimensions of life. Also, their health condition tends to be poorer and they may end up more affected by weather shocks, especially during floods. The role of indigenous knowledge in risk management strategies Local knowledge of the ecosystem is a key component of adaptation strategies. Andean indigenous communities are known for their ancient knowledge of the environment and for the development of techniques and technologies that allowed them to survive and adapt to extreme weather conditions and related effects throughout generations. Two of the most important indigenous strategies of adaptation in the Andean region are the use of the terrace farming system (Schulte et al., 1998; McDowell and Hess, 2012) and the traditional crop rotation system (known as Aynuqa ). These techniques enable the hosting of a significant number of native crops and the conservation of soil quality, moisture, and fertility (Schulte et al., 1998; Cuéllar and Medina, 2009; SERNAP, 2006). Research conducted by Postigo (2012) in the Peruvian Andes found that the actions taken by most of the farmers to cope with weather events rely on local knowledge of environmental and biological signals, which enable them to forecast the weather and to anticipate seasonal changes. 9 Animal behaviors are used to predict how crops will perform during the year; for example, if the Southern lapwings (bird, leque leque) nests are at high elevations it means that it will be a rainy year; however, if the nest is at lower elevations, the year will be dry (Postigo, 2012). The interviews confirm existing evidence that emphasize the essential role of traditional and indigenous knowledge in prevention, adaptation, and risk management strategies . Knowledge helps to reduce people’s uncertainty when facing risks, and it entails far more than just gathering information. Knowledge involves the use of such information to assess the level of exposure to those events and their possible results, in order to decide a course of action. The qualitative data collected often refers to the use of signs from nature learned from their elders, and rituals The elders, the grandparents knew. of the Pachamama to petition for favorable farming conditions and weather. At the same time, the overall Male community leader affected message interviewees shared is that these beliefs and by floods, 43 years, Santa Rosa practices are declining significantly due to reduced inter- generational transfer of local and indigenous knowledge . 9 For example, if the Southern Cross constellation is descending in April, it means the onset of the nightly frost season. Southern winds indicate nightly frost while northern winds indicate rain. Biological indicators are also part of these signals. For instance, the flowering of plum and apple trees in August indicates a good year to cultivate broad beans, and grass in the river in June to August signals a good year for agriculture. 22 Box 2. Indicators of upcoming rain and floods; its absence implies drought • Crickets chirp • Big monkey cries • The fox cries • Rowdy ducks and hens • A rabbit makes holes in the river • Lots of ants • A bug comes out of the earth • A turo snail lays eggs at the height • White heron the water will reach • A singing bird (chiwanco) • Moon towards the north • A whistling bird • Black cloud • The birds build their nests at the height • Excessive heat the water will reach • Humidity under the rocks in San • Butterflies Juan • Fleas arrive in large numbers According to some interviewees, the younger generations do not value the ideas and beliefs of their grandparents. One aspect that contributes to the loss of traditional knowledge is the feeling that knowledge passed down from generation to generation is neither sufficient nor adequate, because “it does not come true”. The weather has changed, and the signals and announcements from nature — the specific behaviors of birds, wild animals and insects before weather events take place (Box 1) — are no longer accurate. The interviewees also emphasize the changes in recurrence and intensity of weather events. The latest weather events have not occurred according to known parameters and have exceeded predictions of intensity. These findings are consistent with those of other studies on adaptation strategies to weather change events conducted in Bolivia and the American Andean region, which indicate that indigenous ancestral knowledge is falling into disuse (Valdivia et al., 2016; Morales, 2010; Sperling et al., 2008; Vidaurre de la Riva et al., 2013). In their study, Valdivia et al. (2016) argue that indigenous systems are being lost as a result of migration, weather change, and market integration. Farmers interviewed as part of Vidaurre de la Riva et al. (2013) study say that the young generation has lost the ability to “read” the weather and the affiliated skills to understand the climatic patterns, and thereby to adapt management practices. For some farmers, compulsory 23 school attendance for children is the main cause for the loss of traditional knowledge. Before we knew of K’oa, 3 but now because we are Kronik and Verner (2010) find that that some facing bad times, we don’t know anything”. community members have knowledge that Woman affected by floods, 46 years, Villa Tunari will allow them to foresee and be prepared for some weather events, but the cultural People don’t believe in K’oa for the Pachamama, to institutions that normally distributed and God they ask. validated this knowledge are now weak or not being used sufficiently, so the Male community leader affected by drought, 54 knowledge benefits only a few people or is years, Tapacari in danger of disappearing. In the data collected for this study, migration is another factor that explains the little use of indigenous knowledge . Events and signals are different in different regions, and as a result, migrating families are not able to respond to the weather characteristic of their new area of residence. Another very prevalent and interesting factor related to the decline in traditional knowledge, practices, and beliefs, is the increasing relevance and presence of Christian churches (Evangelical churches, specifically). Instead of ancestral knowledge, farmers now defer to other sources of information , such as radio, television, internet (if available), and occasionally, the Bristol Calendar, 10 mentioned by several participants as a reliable source of information about weather conditions. At the same time, access to information and means of effective communication — oftentimes limited given the geographic isolation of the most affected communities — are mentioned by several informants as a significant barrier to effective preparedness and response. 10 The Bristol Calendar is a publication of Lanman & Kemp-Barcalay & Co. Inc. from New Jersey, USA, for the promotion of its soap and fragrance products, which has been published continually since 1832. It has been very popular in Latin American countries from the beginning of the 20 th century, for which the company issues different editions by country or region. The Bristol Calendar is edited and printed in New Jersey, with a print run of more than five million copies distributed in Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Panama, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, the Caribbean, and the east coast of the United States, as well as in Brazil. The United States Naval Observatory is in charge of the weather forecasts, tidal, and astronomical calculations studies for each country where the Calendar is distributed. 24 The need for ‘hard’ investments The more effective tasks related to risk management require more significant economic investments . I had borrowed money from the bank to Common adaptation strategies (such as drilling be able to sow, but the whole harvest underground wells to obtain water for irrigation in the was taken away by the river. I had to communities affected by droughts, or the building of reschedule the payments; the people at gabions to protect plots of land at risk of flooding) are the bank heard about the river rise and examples of such initiatives that require investments gave us another opportunity. (in tools, machinery etc.). While informants apply those strategies even in the absence of good equipment, they would definitely be more effective in doing so were they Man affected by floods, 32 years old, better equipped. However, better equipment is costly. Las Carrera s Poor communities are not able to make such significant investments in equipment for communal prevention works. On the other hand, the same is true for individual We were not at all prepared to stop the responses: One possible strategy cited by several flood, so it came and affected all of us... informants is investing in better equipment, fertilizer, We weren’t able to do anything, because and seeds. However, most informants do not have the we definitely needed heavy machinery resources needed to make such investments. Some and we have none in the area. took bank loans in order to re-invest in their plots after weather events. However, this strategy may actually Man affected by floods, 32 years old, lead to additional economic stress should another Las Carreras weather event occur, which then does not only take their crops, but also the means to repay their debt. Not surprisingly, higher socio-economic level households have more resources and are thus better equipped to bear the impacts of weather shocks . For instance, in the communities affected by floods, the households with greater financial resources may rent equipment for the recovery of their lands after being flooded by the rising rivers, and are better prepared to protect their animals in the case of a flood. Likewise, households with sufficient financial resources in communities affected by droughts can obtain underground water or water tanks and thus are better prepared to endure droughts. More than purely socioeconomic conditions — though very much related to these — the geographical location of the dwelling, the altitude at which it is located, and its proximity to the river are the most important factors. Generally, people who diversify their income have greater flexibility and thus ability to deal with the effects of weather shock. 25 Local leaders as gate keepers in risk management Community leaders say they require more knowledge and training to better face weather events and to develop contingency and emergency [The community] do not have help, because plans. This is important because the affected their leader and his base don’t worry, they act villagers feel they depend a lot on their community normal, each one surviving independently. leaders, who should be reaching out to higher levels Man affected by drought, 38 years, Tapacari of government on behalf of the affected people. However, not all community leaders are portrayed as equally effective in doing so. If they are not well informed, if their communication skills or their knowledge and capacity are low, not much will happen in favor of the people or communities, and others may actually turn themselves into gate keepers. Beyond knowledge and capacity, interviewees also mention the lack of preparedness, We lack encouragement, support from the motivation, and motivating capacity of the authorities... community leaders. There seems to be an agreement that local leadership is extremely Woman affected by floods, 32 years, San Ignacio important in encouraging the community They (authorities) are like the father, as I say, members to take action, and to “have hope” like the father of the community and... They have that they can actually change things. Seeing to look after us. Of course, we have to give our their leaders as agents of change was said to be opinion too, some may be good, some may be bad, important for the community members in the and according to that we may come out with one sense that they themselves may overcome the single idea and one single objective. This would be feeling of resignation and discouragement given my point of view. positive active examples. On the other hand, if authorities seem reluctant to prepare, adapt, Man affected by floods, 36 years, Soracachi and take action, motivating themselves to do so becomes more difficult. Leaders are also seen as the ones who can encourage much needed collective action. 26 Migration as a response strategy to(recurrent) weather shocks The diversification of income and productive activities is the main strategy to address the We are worried; [the situation] is very serious... risks of weather shocks mentioned by the We will always want to keep on living here in the participants of this study. As a consequence of community, where are we going to go? We are weather shocks, many poor farmers, especially not going to other places because we also have heads of households and youths, leave in search our small plots of land; we are not going to leave of temporary work opportunities to support the place. We only lack water; if there is water, their families. When looking for new sources of there is life here, so we are always thinking about income, men find work as day laborers in other getting water, this is the concern, to stay and not people’s lands, in limestone mines (Tapacarí), or leave, neither us not the children... We are going in the cities as construction or factory workers. to recover, with the rain we will recover, so we are Women embark on livelihood activities such as going to ask God for rain. handicrafts or weaving, but some of them also mention having taken on jobs in other people’s Man affected by drought, 51 years, Misquei farms. Income from such activities varies across communities as people work in diverse fields: livestock farming, growing food, dairy, fish breeding, etc. In the communities affected by floods, many inhabitants sought to grow their crops in plots leased from their neighbors, to work for neighbors as day laborers during the planting and harvesting seasons, or to work for families engaged in livestock farming who have more resources than they do. The study participants voiced a deep sense of belonging to their lands and communities – accompanied by a strong rejection of relocating permanently to the city . The informants identify themselves as “rural people”, and it is very difficult for them to imagine a different way of life from their current one. As a result of their deep attachment to their land, many informants stick to their hopes that weather conditions will improve. Many of them stay and continue cultivating the land as they have always done, assuming the “next year will be better”. In particular, the elderly feel deeply rooted in their community life. Leaving their lands would also imply they would not be able to leave any inheritance to their children and grandchildren. The narratives about their connection to their land reflects nostalgia and a clinging to the past. They also refer to their communities as important for their identity and personal strength; giving that up seems frightening to them; the prospect of it brings insecurity. In the village they can plant their own food, whereas in the cities they would need to buy food, which would make them more vulnerable. Overall, life in the village seems “easier” as several participants say. But most importantly, the rural living, the daily 27 routines, the community is what they know, what essentially constitutes their identity. This deep Since I was born I’m here, it’s here I’ve always sense of belonging is one of the main motivations been. I don’t know how to get to the city, I’ve of their willingness to stay in their communities. never been there, my parents didn’t want me to go to the city, why would children go to the city, as People’s attachment to their land also comes they said: “what for”, even worse, “the daughters, hand-in-hand with their objections to life in the what would they do there, what for would they city. For many of them, life in the city is more go?”, that’s what they said. That’s why I’ve stayed difficult and dangerous because of the risks here; I’ve never gone to the city for a walk. associated with crime and violence. The rural areas are perceived as more peaceful and safer. In Woman affected by droughts, 59 years, addition, there is an overall sense of uncertainty Tacobamba associated with life in the city. Participants are afraid of the potentially high costs involved in The advantages of agriculture, is that we have living in the city, including rent and the need to the open hill. Where we live, we can farm without purchase food. Some participants consider the problems, however we want. It does not matter if city an unsuitable place for women in particular, we make it big or small, we work for ourselves. We given the lack of safety. Furthermore, the urban are not employees. areas are associated with less freedom and less healthy living conditions as the city is usually Male community leader affected by floods, 35 polluted. Also, working as a rural farmer brings years, San Ignacio several advantages over working in the city, because people work for themselves and have control over what they do, and do not have to report to anyone. Migration is a very recurrent theme in the study and almost all participants refer to migration, It’s a pity, my children are also sad; my whether temporary or permanent, at some point children who are already grown up have left, during their interview. In general, migration is because, as there was a drought, our harvests perceived as one of the few options left for getting were small, very small; it’s not enough to feed ahead, and in some cases, it is the only way to us, that’s why they left... survive, according to the testimonies. Woman affected by droughts, 59 years, Tacobamba 28 What becomes clear is that migration is in most cases a necessity, not an opportunity. 11 Very rarely did informants express their migration choices as motivated by the willingness to improve their life conditions (for instance, to get access to better services such as education and health or employment opportunities). Migration is often also perceived as economically too costly and thus unaffordable for some families. In general, it is the male heads of households who migrate, although occasionally mothers or (predominantly male) youths may also migrate. The interviews also reveal an important distinction between temporary and permanent migration. Temporary migration is used as a strategy for ..they go for a year, sometimes eight months generating income between the harvest and the because they don’t feel capable of living a planting seasons, as people are less needed in their long time outside [of the community]. communities between these periods. It is worth Woman affected by drought, 75 years, mentioning that many of the interviewees expressed Charagua a marked preference for temporary over permanent migration, because the latter implies leaving their plots of land for good, which, as already discussed, is a painful process. Various forms of temporary migration emerged in the data collected. For instance, villagers may be forced to leave their communities temporarily if those are severely affected by floods, to find refuge in the capital of the municipality until they can return home. The majority of references are about temporary work in cities or other municipalities (as day laborers, miners, builders, construction workers, blue-collar workers, and drivers). Temporary migration is perceived as taxing because it implies the temporary breaking up of families. Some informants refer to conflicts within There are no more young people. There are their families related to discussions around whether only old people there are not many people or not to migrate out of their community, with one anymore . partner willing to do so while the other prefers the partner to stay. The objections to migration include Male community leader affected by drought, the overall attachment to their land and community, 35 years, Tacobamba the unwillingness to break up families, as well as concerns over jealousy arising and the lack of trust, as a result of not being physically in the same place. Some families do elect permanent migration “to make a living” in other communities where conditions may be more adequate for agricultural production. This is true for the very severely affected communities, particularly in the case of floods when all people’s belongings and livelihoods have been destroyed; but also true for the inhabitants of communities that are 11 There is obviously the methodological bias in the sense that the study addressed those who were still to be found in the communities, so the views collected in this research tend to reflect those of people that have never migrated or have migrated only temporarily; they are likely to be those who would object to permanent migration. 29 severely affected by droughts, experiencing conditions which make it impossible to make a living My husband says “What are we are going to from agriculture. In these cases, migration becomes do? He says “Where are we going to get the the only feasible option for survival. Furthermore money” No money to buy milk. I will have to for some, particularly the youth, initial strategies to go to work. All alone, what am I to do. “Who is migrate only temporarily may over time transform going to help me to milk the cow? We need to into more constant settlement in the cities, where wake up at four in the morning. Who is going they may start their own families and only return to to accompany me?”, I tell him, My children their communities to visit, or to see their parents . don’t want to accompany me. Migration abroad (to Brazil, Argentina, or Spain) is also a frequently mentioned strategy. Woman affected by drought, 34 years, Achacach Migration has an impact on the social dynamics within the community. Not only are older people the ones mainly left behind, the outmigration of males has significant implications for the workloads and time constraints of women who stay behind (see also: Ashwil et al., 2011). Traditionally, the gendered division of labor allocates men the responsibility for the farm, while women are in charge of the house and the children. With the outmigration of their menfolk, women have had to take on additional tasks in farming, their workload overall increasing now they are solely responsible for the farming, taking care of the animals and the household. Prior to their partners’ departure, women’s main focus used to be on housework, with the responsibilities of the farm shared between the couple. Interestingly however, while women take over the responsibilities for farming in the absence of their partners, they mostly refer to this as “helping” their partners with the farm, not demonstrating any stronger sense of ownership. It would certainly be interesting to further analyze the effects of women’s increased income-generating responsibilities in terms of their bargaining power, their agency, and their overall sense of empowerment. III. More than yet another dimension affected by the shock: The role of agency Agency is people’s capability to make decisions and to transform them into the desired actions and results (World Bank, 2011). Perova and Vakis (2013) identify two aspects of agency: (i) the internal aspect, which entails the internal motivation to make a decision, as well as the aspirations and the willingness to act towards achieving the goals set (“I have confidence in myself, I think I have possibilities”); and (ii) the external aspect, consisting of taking measures to surpass constraints that are external or exogenous to the individual (“I have the knowledge, the social networks, or the resources to act with the purpose of fulfilling my wishes”). Agency is an enabler to the leveraging of opportunities and assets . Together, context, endowments, and agency are contributing factors toward social mobility and, if absent or 30 lacking, may result in poverty traps (Vakis et al., 2015). An enabling context allows people to obtain an appropriate return for their work or investments. Endowments, such as people’s levels of health and education, are also key factors in the obtaining of those returns or rewards. At the same time, agency seems to be a core driver behind the effectiveness and quality of risk management methods, since it profoundly affects the decision-making process itself. Agency is thus an underlying condition to the building of resilience, and a key factor in taking advantage of certain endowments and resources offered by the context, in order to escape poverty. The study finds a significant negative impact on agency as a result of exposure to weather shocks . This is worrying because it constitutes not just another ‘affected’ dimension of well- being; it may constrain effective response to subsequent shocks, as will be illustrated in the following sections. Indications of decreased agency: Pessimism, the sense of lack of control, and frustration Extreme weather events have an effect on the state of mind of the residents of the affected communities. For example, the impact of natural disasters on the state of mind of the people affected include acute stress, post-traumatic stress disorders (Galea et al., 2005), somatic disorders (Van den Berg et al., 2005), and major depression (Marshall et al., 2007). The experience of psychologists and social workers intervening in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters have confirmed the benefits of early psychological support for the improvement of self-efficacy and agency, which are crucial for risk management by the communities (Haskett et al., 2008; Norris et al., 2002; Vernberg et al., 2008). Consistent with the literature, the study found significant negative impacts of weather events on the psychological and emotional dimensions of well-being among the affected population. Feelings of sadness and discouragement predominate amongst most of the interviewees. Some participants express that they feel they have neither control nor power over their lives. References to such feelings are very prevalent in the qualitative data. People sense that the power of nature (or God) is beyond their own, and so the I tell you, there is no desire to fight. One gets course of their future is practically out of their up and one lies down, very tired. What is hands. What will happen seems unavoidable to going to happen to me? There is more worry. them, and there does not seem any other option What I would like above all is that my land available apart from accepting their fate. Passivity, gets better, but now there is nothing to do. the absence of active control over the course of one’s life, and paralysis, is quite common among Woman affected by floods, 39 years, Villa informants. Tunari 31 Their passivity is also evident in their recurring explanation of the weather events as a punishment imposed by God on mankind. 12 The perception is that it is God’s will, that nobody can interfere in the divine plan, and that their destiny is in the hands of God. This can lead to feelings of absolute resignation, which hinders their capacity to plan their future and seek solutions. Several participants shared their understanding that their own lives, as well as that of their families and communities, is really in the hands of God, and that one has to accept whatever God’s plan is. They conform to this attitude and express that no matter what “the plan” for them may be, they will have to accept it. There is nothing they can do and no way in which they may be able to influence their fate through action and engagement. How shocks affect poor people’s agency The impact of people’s mental wellbeing is mainly due to their witnessing of the (slow or rapid) destruction of their livelihoods (and ways of living), which makes them feel helpless. Some refer to the “trauma” of having experienced what they have, with no prospect of improvement. Those affected by floods say that even after significant time has passed, some do not recover from the experience. While exposure to droughts may be draining emotionally, it seems that given the slow onset, it may take a certain period to realize that there is indeed no future in continuing to do what they had always done in that same place. By contrast, exposure to floods may be more sudden and tragic. The recurrence of the events is one of the factors that participants describe as particularly disheartening. Some describe how they had We don’t get organized, We just stare at each just recovered from a past event, renewed their other. What are we going to do? Nobody can motivation to prepare their land, when suddenly do anything. It is nature, they say. We just they were struck by yet another shock, rendering endure it, withstand it. futile all the efforts invested in regaining their livelihoods. Villagers expressed their sense of Male community leader, 54 years, Apoyo lack of power, particularly in the face of multiple exposures to weather events. In the communities affected by floods, interviewees recalled their suffering as they witnessed the destruction of their homes, harvest, and the loss of their animals, which was clearly very painful to the study participants. Also, prevention measures have often been ineffective because floods take people by surprise. People feel overwhelmed, not able to manage and take reasonable actions, since whatever they have done previously turned out to be ineffective. 12 Interestingly, several informants do actually link the changes in weather to the environmental pollution by mankind. In that sense, the events are read as an outcome from damage done to “mother earth”. According to several informants, the changes that can be observed in weather are understood as a “warning” to humanity by our planet, not to continue to further damage, destroy, and pollute the environment. 32 Also, research participants express they have not been able to keep up with the drastic changes in Now, people have become very upset, they weather in terms of the frequency, unpredictability, have also changed because there is no and intensity of weather events. This causes a feeling agricultural production of loss of control, and reduces people’s motivation to practice rituals. Woman affected by drought, 35 years, Tapacari Beyond losing their belongings and livelihoods, research participants also emphasize the In the community we used to share more, we devastating loss of their communities when the used to be more united. We used to share population was either suddenly or gradually forced everything. But now we don’t have anything. to migrate . Apart from material destruction, they suffer the loss of emotional bonds and sense of Woman affected by floods (FGD), Las belonging. In communities experiencing droughts, Carreras interviewees expressed great concern about food scarcity, and shared their anxiety over the loss of their way of living. Those with young children were greatly worried about their children’s future, which can be particularly draining given the responsibility My children have left because there is no rain the parents feel. here, no agriculture production. So alone here I will get sick and die. When they find out that As mentioned before, weather events force people I died they may arrive. to leave their communities in search of alternative income generation activities . The breaking up of Woman affected by drought (FGD), families adds another layer of emotional distress Tacobamba particularly for parents who stay behind when their children leave, and partners of those who leave temporarily. How limited agency affects risk management: Despair, resignation, and passivity The lack of a positive outlook as regards one’s own life may hinder people’s willingness or ability to try to deal with weather-related risk and to minimize its impact on their own welfare. More than yet another dimension of well-being affected by the weather events, low agency becomes a barrier to effective risk management in itself. In that sense, with agency being negatively affected, people find themselves in a vicious cycle; one that may trap them into chronic poverty. Pessimism, resignation, and passivity that arise from experiencing weather shocks among the rural poor affects the development of prevention, mitigation, and coping strategies. The exposure to droughts and floods, especially if they are recurrent, may create or deepen people’s feelings that they are no longer able to control their own fate. This feeling prompts a “wait-and-see” approach, a predominantly passive attitude about what the future might hold, instead of encouraging the taking of proactive steps to shape one’s desired future. 33 Generally speaking, the level of stress experienced when exposed to droughts and floods is quite I cannot not think about anything. Like a extensive, causing a loss of focus. It becomes dumb person I go along, I don’t think about impossible for people to concentrate and to develop anything, don’t memorize. strategies, or think clearly about taking concrete steps towards improving their situations. Woman affected by drought, 80 years, Tapacari The interviewees overwhelmingly express a pessimistic outlook on life. The participants feel helpless and give up on taking action to determine their destinies. They see things happening to them but do not foresee ways in which they may be able What are we going to do, as we say here in to influence their fate. The passivity and pessimism the field: “What happens, just happens “. expressed are reflective of the frustration they These are things of nature. Sometimes you experienced when the efforts they made turned out will cry, sometimes you will lament, but you to be futile. In this process, they lose hope and give need to carry on, always thinking about your up. This attitude has significant impacts on how community, of course. they subsequently deal with the shocks, and how they may prepare for the next ones. Resignation can Man affected by floods, 36 years, Soracachi even deepen, when people contemplate alternative options and realize there are none. The holy land raises us and eats us. Life is Relatedly, people also share that as a result of bitter. being exposed to weather shocks, they tend to Woman affected by floods, 69 years, Las think in a more short–term manner. Planning can Carreras become a meaningless exercise. They have learned that making plans for the future, making efforts to implement those plans and invest in them, can be overturned overnight. At the same time, adopting shortsightedness as the default attitude has serious implications for adaptation and mitigation Ten years from now, hum… I don’t know, I strategies, which actually entail more mid-term or don’t know, we don’t think about that. even long-term thinking. Woman affected by droughts, 35 years, Moreover, people learn to be cautious with Macharetí investments ; they realize that if one does not invest much, one may also not lose as much. This attitude is particularly predominant among the elderly. But several young people interviewed also expressed such attitudes of reservation. 34 In light of that, those that stay in the communities continue to stubbornly do what they have always done, i.e. plant and work their fields, given the absence of other viable options. Participants express that since things are not within the realm of their control, continuing to work is the only thing that makes sense to them and that gives meaning to their doings, i.e. continuing to plant, trying to make their plants grow, and ensuring their animals live. They feel there is nothing they can do against the forces of nature, and so they carry on with their lives day by day, as they can. Climatic events being natural events, there is a feeling of inevitability: They may have to endure and survive through through them – somehow. With regards to the future, many informants People just take it like that. They are things express that they do not have any positive of nature, and that is that. There is very little prospects or hopes. It seems meaningless to them desire to work because they are afraid to fail and even painful to make ideas and plans that mostly because of the drought may then be rendered futile as a result of floods or droughts. Several interviewees state that they Male community leader, 37 years, Charagua have no prospect for improvement, and that what awaits them is death. Resignation culminates in desperation, and some people express that they have We are all demoralized. Everything given up on life. It is striking how often references destroyed with these floods. There is low to death appear in the interviews. This (extremely) morale (…) There is no confidence anymore, pessimistic outlook is even more prevalent among so why would you make a big investment. the elderly since they are more vulnerable in general Woman affected by floods, 41 years, Villa terms, and have fewer resources to cope with the Tunari events. “We all want to die, what are we going to do” Like that we talk among ourselves. Woman affected by drought, 35 years, Tapacari The trees will also dry out. Everything will dry out. Everyone is going to die. Woman affected by drought (FGD), Tapacari We are going to die. What are we going to do? If there is no water, there is no life. That is how it is. Man affected by drought, 20 years, Mizque We think like this, there is drought, what will we do? We will die, that’s it. That is what we say. What can we do? What will we eat? We will die due to lack of food. Woman affected by drought (FGD), Achacachi 35 In terms of age, the data collected for this study reveals that elderly people are particularly affected The ones that stay to face these weather in terms of their agency. Not only are they are a events are the elderly... Even in the lack of group that is extremely vulnerable to the effects of rain...I think [the elderly] would always stay, weather change, they often also lack the abilities of saddened; we the elderly would stay, because young people or the advantage of good health to all our children think about leaving to the city, search for alternative sustenance strategies. Even so we will stay alone. those who have the opportunity to migrate to where their children have settled, prefer to stay in their Woman affected by droughts, 59 years, communities where they feel more comfortable. Tacobamba Perceptions of institutional aid and support Related to an overall passive attitude, many interviewees focus their expectations on receiving We don’t receive anything because we are governmental and non-governmental aid to address far away, it’s very distant... We are so many the impacts of weather events. As a response to in the municipality that our small budget isn’t droughts, some communities received water sent enough, so... in tanker trucks by the municipality, as well as a supply of geomembrane bags for water storage from Male community leader affected by a Non-Governmental Organization (NGO). Some droughts, 32 years, Tapacarí communities have received tools, seeds, and food rations from institutions such as the Civil Defense and department governments. While there is reference to municipalities and department governments reaching There’s almost no aid around here... Last year, out with heavy machinery to communities affected by we received flour, rice, oil, sugar, only those floods or rising rivers, mostly, the rescue of families things...We always make demands, but we is carried out by family members and neighbors. never receive help... We’ve been given corn According to the interviewees, it often takes a long seeds, but it seems they were of a different time for institutions to receive the proper information variety... We’ve sowed them, but they didn’t and to get organized. sprout. After weather events, institutions visit communities Female community leader affected by to document the impacts and promise various types droughts, 49 years, Macharetí of aid. Several interviewees suggest that too often aid never arrives, arrives too late, or is inadequate. The capacity of the institutions to deliver aid seems inadequate, according to the affected population. 36 Furthermore, the help received is usually not focused on sustainable investments involving mid-term strategic thinking. Rather, the focus is on emergency support. Also, some communities received support only soon after the event, and expressed the need for more sustained and continuous support. Some also refer to inadequate or unsuitable aid received, such as seeds for a crop series that did not sprout or grow successfully in their land, which is probably unsuitable for that specific environment. Such inadequate aid or the non-materialization . .They have gone to ask for help....but they of aid leaves the affected population feeling haven’t come. They only come to take photos. We distanced from government. Several participants were told they were coming with food supplies voice the feeling of “having been forgotten” by but we got nothing. the authorities. The sense of the lack of attention from and the lack of connectedness to government Woman affected by floods, 20 years, Soracachi and public authorities has significant implications on people’s mindsets. Negative experiences What we need is encouragement, support from with exposure to authorities and continuous our authorities. disappointment with the government’s unfulfilled promises reduces the trust of poor communities Woman affected by floods, 47 years, San in government officials. In a significant number of Ignacio communities, informants shared experiences of authorities arriving after a weather event, taking pictures, registering losses and observing the situation – with no obvious action following those visits. 37 Conclusions This report shows the findings of a qualitative study that explores the perceptions of the impact of droughts and floods, and how households manage these risks. The qualitative approach seeks to complement the existing quantitative evidence by documenting the impacts and responses in Bolivian rural communities with high levels of poverty from the perspective of the people affected. The results obtained from the qualitative interviews confirm previous evidence documenting the multiple negative consequences that both droughts and floods have on households . The interviews document examples of the negative impact that both droughts and floods have on communities, families’ productive assets and endowments, and on education and health services. Going back to the definition of resilience as put forward in the Supreme Decree regulating the Law No. 602 of Risk Management, we find that the poor’s ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt, and recover from the effects of droughts and floods is not a given . Not only is their knowledge and information inadequate to the anticipating of weather events, they are unable to make the investments needed to absorb and adapt in a timely and effective way. Furthermore, people’s resilience and its several sub-dimensions are critically affected by the lack of hope and agency. Beyond the material impacts, the interviews show that droughts and floods are events that significantly affect people’s agency . Specifically, many of the interviewees expressed deep despair and sadness in the face of these events: they mentioned that rivers rise suddenly and violently, and take their possessions and their agricultural production away, as well as their dreams and aspirations. Floods resulting from river overflowing and steady rainfall bring about uncertainty and fear, and destroy their way of life. Droughts are not sudden, but their long- drawn out duration wears them down and causes distress. Lack of water has a severe impact on agricultural and livestock production, and without this vital natural resource, interviewees cannot envisage a future in the community, either for themselves or for their children. 38 Another element that heightens feelings of resignation in some villagers is the changing context that leads to a sense of loss of control over their own lives . This is caused by a variety of factors: on the one hand, weather change has altered the frequency and intensity of weather events, and the interviews show that the villagers have not been able to keep up with the drastic weather change events in terms of their recurrence, low predictability, and magnitude of those events. Furthermore, families break up as a result of migration, contributing to a sense of loss and unwanted change for those who stay behind in the community. The hopelessness caused by these weather events undermines people’s agency and can lead to poverty traps. In many cases people deal with these events by means of migrating temporarily in the absence of other alternatives. In other cases, the feelings of hopelessness and lack of control over one’s own life affects risk management, as it leads to a passive attitude of resignation: many stay and continue to cultivate their plots as they have always done, relying on the assumption that “next year will be better”. These negative impacts on people’s agency may also reinforce their poverty and create poverty traps. Extensive literature has shown that there is an important link between hope, aspiration, and the ability to escape poverty. For example, Duflo (2012) highlights that hopelessness affects the will and the ability to invest in the future. By contrast, a little hope and some reassurance that one’s objectives are within reach, can be an incentive. 13 Although this study does not allow for representative inferences from which to derive policy recommendations, three aspects can be highlighted which may be useful to consider when developing risk management policies in such high-poverty contexts. Firstly, there is a demand for information from local leaders and residents about the likelihood of weather events occurring and management strategies. Ancestral knowledge is an element that has traditionally helped to prevent or foresee the consequences of droughts and floods. However, in a context of weather change, where the frequency and severity of the weather events are changing, further information may help to offset the observed decreased use of ancestral knowledge. Several interviewees mentioned the need for information or knowledge of alternative adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of weather change. Some community leaders also said that it would be valuable to have access to information about how to respond and provide assistance during floods. This suggests that simple interventions that provide information can be useful in reducing vulnerability to droughts and floods. Secondly, migration is a core response strategy to weather change, but not for everyone . Certain groups show a deep attachment to their lands, and it is unlikely that they would use this strategy. Additionally, the study explores some of the negative effects of migration on those who stay behind (such as additional workloads and responsibilities burdening women, the breaking up of families, sense of abandonment, etc.). This creates the need for a deeper understanding of 13 “A little bit of hope and some reassurance that an individual’s objectives are within reach can act as a powerful incentive” (Duflo, 2012, pg.52). 39 the situation for those who stay in their communities, investigating how they interact with those who have migrated, and seeking ways of escaping poverty within the communities. Lastly, policies aimed at improving risk management in very poor communities should understand the role of agency and other internal factors in the reception and adoption of weather adaptation strategies, in order that investments contribute to social mobility . The study also finds that there can be great potential for interventions aimed at improving the aspirations and motivation of people living in these vulnerable contexts. The evidence of this study is consistent with extensive literature that has documented that in order to escape poverty traps, it is necessary for individuals to retain their hopes and aspirations. According to Duflo (2012), hope not only works as an enabling capability, but is also key to the development of other capabilities: hope can feed aspirations. Hope and aspirations foster agency — which influences the decision-making process and resilience — and are essential factors for leveraging policy efforts to escape poverty. Recent reports on weather change adaptation strategies in Bolivia suggests that interventions are focused on providing ‘hard’ support to poor farmer communities to mitigate risk and promote adaptation to weather change (Vidaurre de la Riva et al., 2013; UDAPE, 2015; Oxfam, 2009; Morales, 2010). These ‘hard’ interventions are geared towards addressing the impact of weather change on the context with regards to natural and physical assets. They can be grouped into five categories: (i) those that address the impact of extreme weather events such as storms and floods (preparation of emergency and contingency plans construction of storehouses, infrastructure measures, insurance); (ii) those that address fluctuating or declining precipitation (irrigation and integrated water management, supplementary irrigation, minimization of surface run-off such as terracing, structural reinforcement of housing); (iii) those that address deterioration of the overall water supply (maximization of water capture and storage, community water management); (iv) those that address temperature rise (adaptation of land use strategies, additional irrigation, optimization of production with the use of alternative seed more resistant to different environmental conditions and fertilizer, change to more heat-tolerant livestock and crops); and (v)  livelihoods diversification strategies (retraining, generation of other employment opportunities). Other interventions have also focused on protecting human endowments , such as structural reinforcement of schools and health centers, and the provision of timely and adequate humanitarian assistance in the event of natural disasters. However, it is clear from the review of the literature that less emphasis has been placed on the intangible aspects of weather adaptation of poor and farming communities , which have to do with building people’s agency, self-efficacy, and psychological well-being, crucial elements in the design of weather risk management and adaptation strategies. Experiences of mental health professionals and social workers intervening in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other disasters (Haskett et al., 2008; Norris et al., 2002; Vernberg et al., 2008) have confirmed the benefits of such interventions. 40 References Agnew, R., 2012. Dire Forecast: A Theoretical Model of the Impact of Weather Change on Crime. Theoretical Criminology, 16 (1): 21–42. Agudelo, C., B. Rivera, J. Tapasco, and R. Estrada. 2003. Designing Policies to Reduce Rural Poverty and Environmental Degradation in a Hillside Zone of the Colombian Andes. World Development, 31: 1921-1931. Ahmed, S., N. Diffenbaugh, and T. Hertel. 2009. Weather Volatility Deepens Poverty Vulnerability in Developing Countries. Environmental Research Letters, 4 (3): 1-8. Andersen, L. and D. Verner. 2009. Social Impacts of Weather Change in Bolivia: A Municipal Level Analysis of the Effects of Recent Weather Change on Life Expectancy, Consumption, Poverty and Inequality. World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper 1052. Andersen, L. E., and D. Verner, 2009. Social Impacts of Weather Change in Bolivia: A Municipal Level Analysis of the Effects of Recent Weather Change on Life Expectancy, Consumption, Poverty and Inequality. World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper 5092. Anthonj, C., O. T. Nkongolo, P. Schmitz, J. N. Hango, and T. Kistemann. 2015. The Impact of Flooding on People Living with HIV: A Case Study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia. Glob Health Action, 8: 26441 Ashwill, M., M. Blomqvist, S. Salinas, and K. Ugaz-Simonsen. 2011. La Dinámica del Género y el Cambio Climático en las Zonas Rurales de Bolivia (Gender Dynamics and Weather Change in Rural Bolivia). World Bank Publications. Assunção, J., and F. C. Feres. 2009. Weather Change, Agricultural Productivity, and Poverty. Working paper, Department of Economics, Pontifícia Universidade Católica (PUC), Rio de Janeiro. Baez, J., and A. Mason. 2008. Dealing with Weather Change: Household Risk Management and Adaptation in Latin America. Background Paper for World Bank Flagship Report on Weather Change Low Carbon, High Growth: Latin American Responses to Weather Change, ed. . A. de la Torre, P. Fajnzylber, and J. Nash. Washington, DC: World Bank Bhalla, S. 2002. Boillat, S., and F. Berkes. 2013. Perception and Interpretation of Weather Change Among Quechua Farmers of Bolivia: Indigenous Knowledge as a Resource for Adaptive Capacity Ecology and Society, 18: Art 21. Cai, W., S. Borlace, M. Lengaigne, P. van Rensch, M. Collins, G. Vecchi, A. Timmermann, A. Santoso, M. J. McPhaden, L. Wu, M. H. England, G. Wang, E. Guilyardi, and F. Jin. 2014. Increasing Frequency of Extreme El Niño Events Due to Greenhouse Warming, Nature Weather Change, 4: 111-116. Carter, M. R., P. D. Little, T. Mogues, and W. Negatu. 2007. Poverty Traps and Natural Disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras, World Development, 35 (5): 835–856. 41 CEPAL, 2007. Alteraciones Climáticas en Bolivia: Impactos Observados en el Primer Trimestre de 2007, Mexico. Clayton, S., C. M. Manning, and C. Hodge. 2014. Beyond Storms and Droughts: The Psychological Impacts of Weather Change. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica. Clements, R., M. Cossío, and J. Ensor. (eds.) 2010. Weather Change Adaptation in Peru: The Local Experiences. Chapter 4. Water Management and Weather Change. Practical Action Latin America Regional Office. Cole, S., X. Gine, J. Tobacman, P. Topalova, R. Townsend, and J. Vickery, 2013. Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India, Am. Econ. J. Appl. Econ., 5 (1): 104–135. Cole, S., X. Giné, and J. Vickery. 2013. How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment. Working Paper 13-080, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA. Cuellar, J., and T. Medina. 2009. Agrobiodiversidad, Género y Cambio Climático en la Cuenca del Río Mantaro. Tecnología y Sociedad, Lima: Soluciones Prácticas. 16 (8): 83–99. Dell, M., B. Jones, and B. Olken. 2009. Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates. American Economic Review, 99 (2): 198-204. Dercon, S. 2004. Growth and Shocks: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia, Journal of Development Economics, 74 (2): 309–329. Dilley, M., R.S. Chen, U. Deichmann, A. L. Lerner-Lam, Arnold, J. Agwe, P. Buys, O. Kjevstad, B. Lyon, G. Yetman. 2005. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: World Bank.  Duflo E., 2012. Human Values and the Design of the Fight Against Poverty. Tanner Lectures :1–55. Elbers, C., J. W. Gunning, and B. Kinsey. 2007. Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence. World Bank Econ. Rev., 21 (1): 1–20. Finucane, M., and J. Peterson. 2010. Human Dimensions of Drought in Hawaii. An Exploratory Study of Perceptions of and Responses to Drought Risk by Farmers, Ranchers, and Service Providers in Hawai‘i. East-West Center. Honolulu, Hawaii. Galea, S., A. Nandi, and D. Vlahov. 2005. The Epidemiology of Post-traumatic Stress Disorder After Disasters. Epidemiologic Reviews, 27: 78–91. Hallegatte, S., M. Bangalore, L. Bonzanigo, M. Fay, T. Kane, U. Narloch, J. Rozenberg, D. Treguer, A. Vogt-Schilb. 2016. Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Weather Change on Poverty. Weather Change and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. Haskett, M. E., S. S. Scott, K. Nears, and M. A. Grimmett. 2008. Lessons From Katrina: Disaster Mental Health Service in the Gulf Coast Region. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 39: 93–99. 42 Haushofer, J., J. de Laat, M. Chemin. 2012. Poverty Raises Levels of the Stress Hormone Cortison: Evidence from Weather Shocks in Kenya, Dartmouth University. Hoffmann, D., and C. Requena. 2012. Bolivia en un Mundo 4 Grados Más Caliente. Escenarios Sociopolíticos Ante el Cambio Climático para los Años 2030 y 2060 en el Altiplano Norte. Instituto Boliviano de la Montaña/ Fundación PIEB: La Paz, BO. Hsiang, S., M. Burke, and E. Miguel. 2013. Quantifying the Influence of Weather on Human Conflict. Science, 341: 1212–26. Karlan, D., R. D. Osei, I. Osei-Akoto, and C. Udry. 2012. Agricultural Decisions After Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints. Working Paper 18463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Kendall, A., and A. Chepstow-Lusty. 2006. Cultural and Environmental Change in the Cuzco Region of Peru: Rural Development Implications of Combined Archaeological and Palaeoecological Evidence. En Kay Pacha: Cultivating Earth and Water in the Andes, BAR International Series 1478, (ed.) P. Dransart, 189–197. Archaeopress, Oxford, UK. Kraay, A., and D. McKenzie. 2014. Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28 (3): 127–148. Krishna, A., 2006. Pathways Out of and Into Poverty in 36 Villages of Andhra Pradesh, India. World Development, 34 (2): 271–288. Kronik, J., and D. Verner. 2010. Indigenous Peoples and Weather Change in Latin America and The Caribbean. Chapter 3: Indigenous Peoples of the Andes. World Bank Directions in Development Series: Environment and Development. Marshall, R. D., R. A. Bryant, L. Amsel,, E. J. Suh, J. M. Cook, and Y. Neria. 2007. The Psychology of Ongoing Threat: Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-related Fears. American Psychologist, 62: 304–316. Massmann, F. and R. Wehrhahn. 2014. Qualitative Social Vulnerability Assessments to Natural Hazards: Examples from Coastal Thailand. Journal of Integrated Coastal Zone Management, 14 (1): 3-13. McDowell, J. Z., and J. J. Hess. 2012. Accessing Adaptation: Multiple Stressors on Livelihoods in the Bolivian Highlands Under a Changing Weather. Global Environmental Change 22: 342-352. McElwee, P. 2010. The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Weather Change in Vietnam. Economics of Adaptation to Weather Change. World Bank Discussion Paper Number 12. Milan, A., and R. Ho. 2013. Livelihood and Migration Patterns at Different Altitudes in the Central Highlands of Peru. Weather and Development, 6: 69–76. 43 Morales, M. 2010. The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Weather Change in Bolivia. Economics of Adaptation to Weather Change. World Bank Discussion Paper Number 13. Norris, F. H., M. J. Friedman, and P. J. Watson. 2002. 60,000 Disaster Victims Speak: Part II. Summary and Implications of the Disaster Mental Health Research. Psychiatry: Interpersonal and Biological Processes, 65: 240–260. PDM, 2004. Plan de Desarrollo Municipal (PDM) – Charazani. Gobierno Municipal Gral Juan José Pérez (Charazani). Conservación y Desarrollo en el Ambito del Complejo de Áreas Naturales Protegidas de Tambopata (Perú) y Madidi (Bolivia) - PD 17/00 Rev. 3 (F). ANMIN Apolobamba. Perova, E., and R. Vakis. 2013. Improving Gender and Development Outcomes Through Agency, Policy Lessons From Three Peruvian Experiences. Washington DC. Postigo, J. 2014. Perception and Resilience of Andean Populations Facing Weather Change. Journal of Ethnobiology, 34 (3): 383-400. Ranson, M. 2012. Crime, Weather, and Weather Change. Harvard Kennedy School M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series No. 8. Ribot, J. 2010. Vulnerability Does Not Fall From the Sky: Toward Multiscale, Pro-Poor Weather Policy. In Social Dimensions of Weather Change. Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World, (edited.) R. Mearns, and A. Norton, 47–74. The World Bank, Washington, DC. Rist, S., and J. San Martin. 1991. Agroecología y Saber Campesino en la Conservación de Suelos. Segunda edición. RUNA Publisher, AGRUCO- Cochabamba, Bolivia. Salick, J., and A. Byg. 2007. Indigenous People and Weather Change. A Tyndall Centre Publication for Weather Change Research, Oxford Missouri Botanical Garden. Schulte, M., F. Magne, A. Torrico, L. Paz, and R. Cespedes. 1998. La Producción Agrícola en la Región Kallawaya. Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Mayor de San Andrés. Offset Boliviana Ltda. EDOBOL Publisher, La Paz, Bolivia. Sen, A. 1999. Development as Freedom, Oxford University Press. Sen, B. 2003. Drivers of Escape and Descent: Changing Household Fortunes in Rural Bangladesh, World Development, 31 (3): 513–534. SERNAP, 2006. Plan de Manejo del Área Natural de Manejo Integrado Nacional Apolobamba (PM ANMIN Apolobamba). Ministerio de Desarrollo Rural, Agropecuario y Medio Ambiente, Viceministerio de Biodiversidad, Recursos Forestales y Medio Ambiente. Volumen I. La Paz, Bolivia. Seth, A., J. Thibeault, M. Garcia, and C. Valdivia. 2010. Making Sense of Twenty-First-Century Weather Change in the Altiplano: Observed Trends and CMIP3 Projections. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 100: 835–847. 44 Shah, A., S. Mullainathan, and E. Shafir. 2012. Some Consequences of Having Too Little. Science . 338 (6107): 682-85. Skoufias, E., and K. Vinha, 2012. Growing Precious Resources: Weather Variability and Child Height in Rural Mexico, in Emmanuel Skoufias (ed), The Poverty and Welfare Impacts of Weather Change Quantifying the Effects, Identifying the Adaptation Strategies. Directions in Development, World Bank, Washington DC. Skoufias, E., R. S. Katayama, and B. Essama-Nssah. 2012. Too Little Too Late: Welfare Impacts of Rainfall Shocks in Rural Indonesia, in Emmanuel Skoufias (ed), The Poverty and Welfare Impacts of Weather Change Quantifying the Effects, Identifying the Adaptation Strategies. Directions in Development, World Bank, Washington DC. Sperling, F., C. Valdivia, R. Quiroz, R. Valdivia, L. Angulo, A. Seimon, and I. Noble. 2008. Transitioning to Weather Resilient Development - Perspectives from Communities of Peru. Weather Change Series No. 115: The World Bank Environment Department Papers, Washington, DC. Swinton, S. M., and R. Quiroz. 2003. Is Poverty to Blame for Soil, Pasture and Forest Degradation in Peru’s Altiplano? World Development 31: 1903–1919. UDAPE, 2014. Evaluación de Daños y Pérdidas por Eventos Climáticos: Bolivia 2013-2014. La Paz, Bolivia. UDAPE, 2016.Vulnerabilidad Poblacional al Riesgo de Desastres en Bolivia, La Paz, Bolivia. Vakis, R., J. Rigolini and L. Lucchetti. 2015. Los Olvidados, Pobreza Crónica en América Latina y el Caribe (Left Behind: Chronic Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean), World Bank, Washington DC Valdivia, C., A. Seth, J. Gilles, M. García, E. Jiménez, J. Cusicanqui, F. Navia, and E. Yucra, 2010. “Adapting to Weather Change in Andean Ecosystems: Landscapes, Capitals, andPerceptions Shaping Rural Livelihood Strategies and Linking Knowledge Systems’”, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 100: 4, 818- 834 Research paper: Adapting to Weather Change in Andean Ecosystems: Landscapes, Capitals, and Perceptions Shaping Rural Livelihood Strategies and Linking Knowledge Systems. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/233195261_Adapting_to_Weather_Change_in_Andean_Ecosystems_Landscapes_Capitals_and_ Perceptions_Shaping_Rural_Livelihood_Strategies_and_Linking_Knowledge_Systems [accessed Apr 4, 2017]. Van den Berg, B., L. Grievink, J. Yzermans, and E. Lebret. 2005. Medically Unexplained Physical Symptoms in the Aftermath of Disasters. Epidemiologic Reviews, 27: 92-106 Van Kessel, G., L. Gibbs, and C. MacDougall. 2015. Strategies to Enhance Resilience Post-natural Disaster: a Qualitative Study of Experiences with Australian Floods and Fires. Journal of Public Health;37 (2):328-36. Vernberg, E. M., A. M. Steinberg, A. K. Jacobs, M. J. Brymer, P. J. Watson, J. D. Osofsky, and J. I. Ruzek. 2008. Innovations in Disaster Mental Health: Psychological First Aid. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 39: 381-388. 45 Vidaurre de la Riva, M., A. Lindner, and J. Pretzsch. 2013. Assessing Adaptation – Weather Change and Indigenous Livelihood in the Andes of Bolivia. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics, 114 (2): 109–122. Winters, C. 2012. Impact of Weather Change on the Poor in Bolivia. Global Majority E-Journal, 3 (1): 33-43. World Bank, 2012. Informe Sobre el Desarrollo Mundial 2012. Igualdad de Género y Desarrollo (World Development Report 2012. Gender Equality and Development), Washington DC. World Bank; Ministerio de Planificación del Desarrollo; Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Agua; Ministerio de Desarrollo Rural y Tierras; Ministerio de Salud; Ministerio de Educación; Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Servicios y Vivienda; Ministerio de Defensa y Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, 2014. Metodología para el Cálculo del Indice de Riesgo Municipal con Datos del Censo 2012. World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Yun, K., N. Lurie, & P. S. Hyde. 2010. Moving Mental Health into the Disaster-preparedness Spotlight. The New England Journal of Medicine, 363 (13): 1193–1194. 46 Annex 1 – Description of the study areas For this study, 12 communities across 12 different municipalities in Bolivia were selected; six were identified for the study of droughts, and another six for the study of floods. Since the focus of the study was to understand the perceptions to repeated extreme events in a context of high poverty, the 12 municipalities were identified according to the following two criteria: (i) historical high risk of droughts or floods; and (ii) high levels of poverty. The 30 Bolivian municipalities most exposed to floods and droughts were pre-selected on the basis of the Municipal Risk Index. 14 Based on this index with poverty statistics at municipal level, the chosen municipalities were those with a moderate rate of poverty above 50 percent and an incidence of extreme poverty above or equal to 30 percent (both measures based on income and unmet basic needs (UBN)). The selection process also took into account the need to generate a list that would cover different geographical areas, as well as the possibility of the research team having access to those communities to carry out the data collection. The selection of the specific communities was done based on local knowledge of the Local Risk Management Units about recent exposure and poverty levels. Tables A1 to A.3 present some basic summary statistics from the 2012 National Housing and Population Census for the 12 municipalities that were selected. The figures presented in Table A1. Show that these municipalities are much poorer in terms of basic needs than the average of their department and the country. Approximately, 7 or more residents are poor based on the official index of basic needs in these areas. In particular, access to services is relatively low as shows in Table A.2. Very low access to information and communication technology (ICT) also reflects the isolation of the areas. In all the municipalities, except Achacachi, less than 50 percent of the dwelling residents report having a phone or cell-phone. This contrast with the national average of 65 percent. In terms of employment (Table A.3) there is a strong attachment to the primary/agriculture sector and workers are more likely to engage as self-employed. Table A.4 summarizes some basic characteristics for the 12 communities selected. As expected, given the selection criteria, these areas are highly poor in terms of unmet basic needs. In all communities, except Carandayti, the share of the population defined to be poor based on housing and access to services indicators, is more than 70 percent. Interestingly, there is substantial variation on household size. In some areas, households are only comprised of about 2 members reflecting the migration patterns found in the report. 14 The Municipal Risk Index (MRI), developed by the Ministry of Development Planning (MPD) of Bolivia and the World Bank in 2012, is a measure of the municipalities’ exposure to natural hazards and of their vulnerability to withstand or cope with disasters when they occur, corresponding to the extent or level of potential losses in emergency or disaster events. It provides a ranking which allows the comparison of the level of risk (and the variables that constitute it) of a municipality with that of others in order to facilitate identification, analysis, and decision making (World Bank, 2014). 47 Table A.1. UNMET BASIC NEEDS BY DEPARTMENT AND MUNICIPALITY, CENSUS 2012. DEPARTMENT AND TOTAL % OF POPULATION WITH MUNICIPALITY POPULATION UNMET BASIC NEEDS BOLIVIA 9,736,516 44.9 CHUQUISACA 559,703 54.5 Las Carreras 3,892 71.8 Macharetí 6,673 68.8 LA PAZ 2,652,226 46.3 Achacachi 45,231 70.5 Apolo 18,372 77.7 COCHABAMBA 1,714,288 45.5 Villa Tunari 67,922 78.6 Tapacarí 24,141 94.9 Mizque 26,247 84.5 ORURO 480,106 47.0 Soracachi 12,702 84.5 POTOSÍ 802,442 59.7 Tacobamba 11,553 93.2 SANTA CRUZ 2,560,568 35.5 Charagua 30,431 70.4 BENI 404,733 56.4 Santa Rosa 9,249 71.0 San Ignacio 20,429 75.3 Source: INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ESTADÍSTICA - UNIDAD DE ANÁLISIS DE POLÍTICAS SOCIALES Y ECONÓMICAS USING INFORMATION FROM CENSUS 2012. Unmet basic needs is defined following the official methodology based on access to adequate housing, services, and education. 48 Table A.2. ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES, BY DEPARTMENT AND MUNICIPALITY, 2012 BASIC SERVICES ICT NUMBER OF DEPARTMENT DWELLINGS Access With AND Access to Access to With WITH to water With TV phone or MUNICIPALITY electricity sewage computer OCCUPANTS network (%) cell phone (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) BOLIVIA 2,803,982 68.3 82.3 40.3 66.5 65.1 23.6 CHUQUISACA 150,202 67.7 69.1 44.8 53.8 55.1 21.8 Las Carreras 1,062 65.1 60.3 9.8 37.2 34.4 5.6 Macharetí 1,751 46.7 60.7 5.4 39.3 46.0 10.4 LA PAZ 852,573 71.3 81.9 47.2 65.4 65.9 23.8 Achacachi 16,228 60.3 75.5 12.6 44.9 51.0 8.7 Apolo 4,625 56.4 65.8 13.7 45.1 39.6 8.5 COCHABAMBA 516,608 54.6 80.8 39.2 66.8 65.7 23.5 Villa Tunari 26,725 18.4 44.1 7.2 28.7 31.3 3.6 Tapacarí 8,113 20.7 33.9 1.0 11.4 18.4 0.9 Mizque 7,911 41.4 53.5 11.3 35.0 36.6 4.6 ORURO 152,061 64.0 78.9 40.1 59.9 61.6 23.1 Soracachi 3,460 46.8 76.3 0.2 45.8 47.6 2.6 POTOSÍ 242,181 56.1 70.4 31.3 49.4 45.8 14.6 Tacobamba 3,897 20.7 30.0 0.3 8.7 5.2 0.7 SANTA CRUZ 644,854 83.4 91.2 36.1 78.0 74.6 28.5 Charagua 6,289 45.1 53.7 6.7 23.8 21.0 5.1 BENI 93,890 41.3 82.3 17.8 63.3 56.8 16.6 Santa Rosa 1,976 58.1 84.3 0.2 57.4 44.6 8.5 San Ignacio 4,354 17.0 69.1 0.3 44.7 45.5 11.6 Source: INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ESTADÍSTICA - UNIDAD DE ANÁLISIS DE POLÍTICAS SOCIALES Y ECONÓMICAS USING INFORMATION FROM CENSUS 2012. 49 Table A.3. OCCUPATION CHARACTERISTICS, BY DEPARTMENT AND MUNICIPALITY, 2012. EMPLOYMENT CATEGORY FOR ECONOMIC SECTOR THOSE WORKING DEPARTMENT Salaried Self-employed Secondary Tertiary AND Other (%) Primary (%) worker (%) (%) (%) (%) MUNICIPALITY BOLIVIA 41.5 50.6 7.9 31.2 9.7 59.0 CHUQUISACA 35.5 54.2 10.3 41.4 7.2 51.4 Las Carreras 35.9 56.9 7.3 60.9 3.3 35.8 Macharetí 47.3 46.1 6.6 51.9 4.5 43.5 LA PAZ 37.7 54.9 7.4 32.8 11.3 55.9 Achacachi 18.5 73.3 8.2 61.3 7.8 30.9 Apolo 15.9 76.7 7.4 72.0 2.7 25.3 COCHABAMBA 38.3 53.6 8.1 32.5 9.5 57.9 Villa Tunari 16.4 76.5 7.1 76.4 2.1 21.6 Tapacarí 10.9 81.2 7.9 82.5 3.6 13.9 Mizque 14.8 71.6 13.7 82.2 1.6 16.3 ORURO 35.1 57.4 7.5 35.5 7.4 57.0 Soracachi 12.5 81.0 6.6 80.8 1.9 17.3 POTOSÍ 27.2 60.9 12.0 57.3 3.7 39.1 Tacobamba 11.6 76.3 12.1 89.9 1.1 9.0 SANTA CRUZ 52.5 40.6 6.9 18.3 11.3 70.4 Charagua 36.8 51.9 11.2 57.9 6.5 35.5 BENI 47.9 44.2 7.9 29.2 11.0 59.8 Santa Rosa 45.5 47.6 6.9 47.6 6.3 46.1 San Ignacio 45.0 45.2 9.8 48.2 8.3 43.5 Note: WORKING POPULATION 10 YEARS OR OLDER Source: INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ESTADÍSTICA - UNIDAD DE ANÁLISIS DE POLÍTICAS SOCIALES Y ECONÓMICAS USING DATA FROM CENSUS 2012 50 TABLE A.4 - BASIC COMMUNITY LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS % of % population Average Number of households DEPARTMENT MUNICIPALITY COMMUNITY NAME POPULATION with unmet household households headed by basic needs size women CHUQUISACA Las Carreras TARAYA 62 240 78.4 29.0 3.9 CHUQUISACA Macharetí CARANDAYTI 72 253 51.7 40.3 3.5 LA PAZ Achacachi TOLA TOLA 95 297 70.3 26.3 3.1 LA PAZ Apolo SANTA CATALINA 106 427 76.5 21.7 4.0 COCHABAMBA Villa Tunari PALOMETAS 55 84 100.0 30.9 1.5 COCHABAMBA Tapacarí TUJÑIRI 19 38 94.6 57.9 2.0 COCHABAMBA Mizque PUKA PILA 45 161 88.8 24.4 3.6 ORURO Soracachi CALLA PAMPA GRANDE 65 235 96.2 23.1 3.6 POTOSÍ Tacobamba HUAJCHI ALTO 48 135 100.0 45.8 2.8 SANTA CRUZ Charagua IPITACUAPE 17 70 97.1 29.4 4.1 BENI Santa Rosa SAN CRISTOBAL 66 270 81.7 22.7 4.1 BENI San Ignacio SAN MIGUEL DEL APERE 57 252 83.5 19.3 4.4 Source: National Housing and Population Census 2012. Annex 2 – Research instruments Individual in-depth interview guide (men and women affected by the weather events) - abbreviated version without probes 1. Tell me a little about your family. Who do you live with? How many are you? How do you all get along? 2. Tell me about your day to day life. What do you do from the time you get up until you lie down? 3. What is the weather like in the community? Can you describe it a bit? 4. Are there ways to prepare for the announcements of nature? Which ones? 5. Have droughts or floods occurred in your community? 6. Could you tell me how it was or what it is like when these events happen? 7. How have you and how has your family been affected by droughts / floods? Let’s talk first about the most intense event you remember. 8. During the event: Did you think about the future? What did you think? 9. Let’s talk about the community now: How do these events affect the community? 10. Did you and your family receive any help or support? Which? 11. Can you describe the situation after these events occur? 12. What does such an event mean for you personally? And for your family? 13. Could you tell me a little bit about the changes you noticed (in terms of the rhythm/ form of the event/ intensity of the event/ your own ways of reacting to the event / your family’s ways of reacting to the event/ your community’s reacting to the event? 14. What are you doing in your community to prevent natural hazards such as droughts or floods? 15. In a year, how do you think your family situation will be? Why do you think it will be like this and not different? What are the factors that influence this? 16. And how will the situation of your family be in 10 years? Why do you think it is like this and not different? What are the factors that can help to make it the same or different? 17. And the situation of the community? In 10 years? Thank you very much! 52 Individual interview guide (key informants) - abbreviated version without probes 1. Initially tell me about your community. 2. How is agriculture here in the community? (Eg: Agricultural activity, ask for other activities mentioned) 3. What is the weather like in the community? 4. Are there ways to prepare for the announcements of nature? Which? 5. Have droughts or floods occurred in the community? 6. Could you describe what it is like when these events occur and how they affect the community? 7. Let’s talk first about the most intense event you remember (Listen to description) 8. How were families organized in this situation (droughts or floods)? 9. What happened to families after such natural disaster situations occurred? 10. Could you tell me a little bit about the changes you noticed (in terms of the rhythm/ form of the event/ intensity of the event/ your own ways of reacting to the event / your family’s ways of reacting to the event/ your community’s reacting to the event? 11. Do you think these events can impact the perspective on the future and aspirations of people in the community? 12. Are community members prepared to cope with droughts or floods? How? 13. Are they currently doing something to prevent natural hazards such as droughts or floods in the community? 14. In the community, do you have an Emergency Plan? 15. Do you have a Contingency Plan? 16. According to you, who should be informed and trained to deal with climate risk situations? (Women, men, children, all, etc.) Can you please explain why? 17. How do you think the community will be in 1 year? 18. And how will it be in 10 years? Thank you very much! 53 Focus group discussion guide (women/men affected by the events) - abbreviated version without probes 1. Here in the community, what is the role of women? And what is the role of men? 2. What is the weather like in the community? 3. How often do droughts / floods occur in the community? 4. We know that you have suffered from droughts / floods in this community before. How do droughts / floods affect you? Have different people / groups in the community been affected differently? Why so? 5. How did the community react to the event? 6. Could you tell me a little bit about the changes you noticed (in terms of the rhythm /form of the event /intensity of the event /your own ways of reacting to the event /your family’s ways of reacting to the event / your community’s reacting to the event 7. Do you think that these events can impact the perspective on the future and the aspirations of the people in the community? 8. What do members of the community do after they have been exposed to droughts? How do they react and why? 9. How do you think the community will be in 1 year? 10. And how will it be in 10 years? 11. Any suggestions from you to the authorities? Thank you very much! 54