63718 Economic and Distributional Impact of Climate Change II THE WORLD BANK Poveny Reduction and Economic Management Unit Europe and Central Asia Region This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reHect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this wo rk do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of an y territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright Stalemen!: The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of tllls work with out permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and' Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danven, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, hrrp;//www.copyrighr_cQml. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail pubrights@world bank.org. ABBREVIATIONS AKDN Aga Khan Development )/etwork ........ ~.-. .........­ : CC Climate. change ...... ~ .... ........­ CCTs Conditional Cash Transfers CEM Econornlc ~1emorandum ~ES .<="mmittee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense CRED Centre for Research on the EpidernioloQy of Disasters EBRD 1/"". B~nk for Reconstruction anu EC European Commission JO<=,A. Europe and Central Asia • FDl Foreign Direct Investment GEAO Gmno-Eadakhshan Autonomous Oblasr GOP Gross Domestic Prod ue! I !CARDA '­ -1 Lenter for ..,.. ,. .Ill, in Dry Areas lFC International '" (" ..E<;:C Inter ,I Panel on ('Ii~"p LITS Life in Transition Survey MFl i\1icrofinance Institution NET Nati0tlal Bank of Tajikistan ., NGO " OFDA Office of Foreign Disaster .Assistance (US .\ . for Tntcrm,ioll"1 Hi PPCR Pilot Program for ('jim"',·· Resilience PRSP n ll, L C . Pape, RRS Ravons oflle,.nhlipon Subordiootion ~ TL<;S ......... . Taiikistan Living ,,·,p,l, ·,\s Surw.\, lJ!NDP United j\L n. UN FCCC Unjte~ Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNHDR Cnited Nations Human Deve..J<:lp111ent Report .-~ .... UNICEF United Nations International Children's Fund : UNISDR United Nations Inte(nati~?'0?1 Strategy for Disaster Reduction USATD United States Agenev for International Development VDC Village L " Committee W'B World Bank ......- - . WI:'P World Food Program WHO \vorld Health Organization W'CA \\later l7 ser "Association • Vice President Philippe Le Houerou Country Director iviotoo Konishi Country iVIanagcr Marsha M. Olive Sector Director Yvonne Tsikata Sector Manager Benu Bidani Leader Salman Zaidi PREFACE AND ACKc"lOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared by a task team comprising .i\nna Rcva, Helena &fakarcnko, ~fisha Bonch­ Osmolovski, Rasmus Heltbcrg, and Salman Zaidi (task team leader). The report was ut:dertaken !Jncler the guidance of Chiara Bronchi, Country !\fanagcr (Tajikistan); 1>.10too Konishi, Country Director (ECCU8); BenLl Bidani, Sector Manager (ECSP3), and Luca Barbone, Sector Director (ECSPE). Julia Buckna11 and Simon Croxton were the peer revlewcfs of the report. In addition) the tea:;) received very helpful comments irom Ron Hoffer, Emmanuel Skoufias, Vladimir Kolchin, Mehrnaz Tcymourian. Erica Jorgensen, Fahrice Houdart, Gary Fine~ Ignacio Jauregui, Nathalie ?\fcGregor, Luis Ernesro Garcia, and Gabrielle Puz. 3 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES Table 1.1. Tajikistan at a Glance ..................................................................................................................................... 20 Table 1.2: Dependence on Agriculture......................................................................................................................... 23 Table 1.3: Sources of Income by Consumption Quintiles ......................................................................................... 23 Table 1.4: Land ownership .............................................................................................................................................. 24 Table 1.5: Hypothetical effect on bh poverty rate and poverty gap, percent.. ........................................................ 26 Table 1.6: Disrribution of rhe PLITS sample in Tajikisran....................................................................................... 31 Table 1.7: Respondent Opinions about Major Problems Currently Facing the World ......................................... 35 Table 1.8: Ordered Probit Results .................................................................................................................................. 36 FIGl,;RES 1.1: Transmission Channels through which CC Impacts the Poor.............................................................. 22 Figure 1.2: Impact of Decline in Agricultural Productivicy on \Xielfare.................................................................. 24 Figure 1.3: Impacr of a hyporhetical decline of agricultural production by 20percent on households' income25 Figure 1.4: Impact of a hypothetical decline of agticultural wages by 20 percent on hOll.,eholds' income ....... 25 Figure 1.5: Impact of a hypothetical increase in food prices of 20 percent on bousehold consumption .......... 26 Figure 1,6: Percentage of rural households wlrh access to improved water source ,." ....... " .............. , '" H.,,,,,,,,,,,,, 27 Figure 1.7: Disaster frequency by Rayon (1997" 20(8) ............................................................................................. 29 Figure 1.8: COStS of Disasters bv Rayon, :'vfillion TJS (199 7 -2008) .......................................................................... 29 Figure 1.9: N umber of Dearhs Attribu table to Disasters' in Europe and Central Asia (1990,,2009) ................. 30 Figure 1.10: Disaster"related Casualties by Rayon (1997 .2008) ................................................................................. 30 Figure 1.11: Awareness of the Different Consequences of Climate Cbange .......................................................... 32 Figure 1.12: Awareness of Climate Change Causes and Mitigation Measures ........................................................ 33 Figure 1.13: Tajikistan: Potential Climate Change Impacts of Greatest Concern .................................................. .34 Figure 1.14: Tajikistan: Most Serious Problem Currently Facing the World .......................................................... 35 Figure 1.15: Seriousness of dimate change problem (1,,10 point scale) ................................................................... 35 Figure 1.16: Respondents affected by c1imate"reiated hazards during past 1iJ years ............................................ 37 Flb'Ufc 2.1: Basjc Elerr.ents of an lntegrated CUmatc Change Adaptation Strategy .... ,..... "".,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,., .. ,,.,39 Fiboure 2.2:Tajikistan's ExportS ....................................................................................................................................... 40 FIgure 2.3: Ttends in Gross Agricultural Output Tajikistan ................................................................................... 40 Figute 2.4: Priorities for Government Spending on Clin,ate Change Adaptation ................................................. 55 Figure 3.1: The 10 agro .. ecological mnes wilh oblast capitals ................................................................................... 62 Figure 3.2: Vulnerability map for Tajikistan (10 agro"ecological zones) .................................................................. 63 3.3: Components of the vulnerability index ..................................................................................................... 64 Figure 3.4: Exposure Index .............................................................................................................................................. 64 Figure 3.5: Sensitivity Index ............................................................................................................................................ 65 Figure 3.6: Adaptive capacity .......................................................................................................................................... 65 Figure 3.7: Vulnerability map for Tajikistan (oblast level) ......................................................................................... 66 Figure 3.8: Components of the vulnerabihty index (obl.st level) ............................................................................. 66 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Is Tajikistan at~risk from climate change? If so, haul should it adapt, given the many other pmsin,g challenges it faces? Can /o11g-term adaptation be reconciled with near-term dmilopment priorities? This report advances three main propositions in mponse, and provides supporling arguments and evidence to buttress them. First, it )).'ams Ihat households in Tajikislan are ,-ignijicantb' threatened ~y elit/late chatlge, and illustrates the t/l(llil transmission rhannels Ihrough Iphich they will likely be impacted. Second, the report shows how, for front being in conflict, Tajiki.rtan's climate adaptation priorities are in fact in close conjOmlance with key development objec/il'es, itnd htghlights the strong public SUppOlI Jor more gOVfmmenf '1>ending on agriculture, wafer management and public infrastructure, disaster management, and pllblie hea/t~four key areas identified in the eOllntl)''! latest povert), reduction strategy as beittg e.rpecialiy imporlant from both climate-change and development perspectil'es. It presents a r~gional vulnerability index for TilJikistan, UJhic/; could help direct climate change adaptation investments tOiFOrds areas of highest vulnerability. FinallyJ the report argues that il is imperative that project-ba.red C/imate~re/ated interventjotls be supported by an enabling environment and onrallpolicy frameuJork that is Clindu,y've fa facditatingfaster climate adaptation. 1. The 2006 Stern Review on the economics of climale change marked a watershed in attracting widespread public attention to the effects of climate change on the glohal economy. As the study highlights, an overwhelming body of scientific evidence indicates th·at climate change resulting from increased accumulation of greenhouse gases is a serious and urgent issue, G-lobal mean temperatures may rise between 2-5 degrees Celsius over the next 2-3 decades, exacerbatjng eXIsting patterns of water shortn.ges and excesses and increasing the tisk of drought and floods. Climate change impacts will be felt differentially across regions: while some countries may benefit from modest rises in temperature, most are expected to suffer heavil}\ especially some of the world's poorest countries, 2. Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts ofglobal climate change. A recent World Bank study warns that countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region are sign:ficantly threatened by cii1112.tc change, with serious risks~,g_ floods, drought, and melting of g]aders~:alrcady in evidence acrOSS the region. Over the next 'ViO decades, vulucrahiliry to climate change and adaptive capaciry arc likely to he dorn./natcd hy socio-economlc factors and legacy issues. Based on the analysis carried out, Tajikistan emerges as the most vulnerable country in ECA using three key incUcators of countdes' exposure sensitivity, and J adaptive capacity to climate change (figure). In large parr this .is because it has social and productive srnlcturcs that make it very sensitive to the impact of a changing dimate, as ,"veIl as has amongst the lowest low adaptive caJpa<:ity among countries in the region. ECA countries ranked by vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change 10 ......... ------------­ ............. ~~ .......:::::::: ::::I~.Ad~:,~.~~.~,y.. O",po",•.OS~:~:'~J.···· - :. 1 .1. 3, Awareness of the diffcrcrlt conseqllences IIf climate change is quite high in Tajikistan, with poterltial impacts on health, natural disasters, and agriclliture ofgreatest public concern. The findings of a nationally representative household survey commissioned fot the report (P~LITS) sho,,' that public awareness of the ilifferenr consequences of climate change is quite high, and is comparable (0 prevailing levels in much richer countries (figure): a majority of respondents felt they ,-yere either very well,informed~ or faidy well-informed, (9 and 48 percent respectively)} about tbe different consequences of climate change. I Public awareness of the clifferent consequences of climate change 100 9 10 9 90 ~ 80 . " 1 ~ ~ • 0 "- ~ 70 . 60 ~ 50 i ':; -to ~ e ~ v 30 ' ~ 20 10 0 EU27 courtries Kazakhstan Tajikistan • verywe,1 informed _ Fairly well informed 'J Not vcrywell informed Not at all informed Source: \Xiorld Bank $;,afY cstinh)lcs the 27 I{uropc;m Union member CQUlll ties arc fwm E:tro,ttatlt' dttitlldi' m1l'ttrdJ d;"1d/( Lurobaromclcr 300, \,\'sve 69.2;, Sep:ember 2008, 4. \~'hCI1 presenred wirh a list of several possible adverse impacts of climate change. «dang'~rs posed by extreme hut/cold seasons that are harmful for healrh" were cired as their most important CO'lcern by the highest share of respondents (30 percent), followed by "increase in namra} disasters" (25 percent), and "unptedktable/extreme wearher that hanns agricultural production" (20 percent). Potential impacts of climare change on health, natural disasters & agriculture are of greatest put·lic concern • Elitreme hat/cold season.~ that are harmful for health • Increase ,n . at.... ral disasters (e .g. floods, fires, mudslices, etc.] • Unpredictable and elitremew€ather that harms agricul';Ora! prodl,Ji:tio~ , Decline in fresh water availability for drinking Declin€ in fresh water ilVaiiabiLty for irrigation Source: 20:0 p. UTS. Percent of survey respondents. 5. The major l1ealth impacts of climate change in Tajikistan will likely be obSC1'l'ed through the increased thermal stress, water-borne diseases and disaster effects. These pressures w1il exacerbate 10 existing problems of the health sector, particularly high levels of watet~bome diseases as well as the crumbling state of physical infrnstructure-e.g. most rural health faeilides do not have access to piped water and communication. and only linuted supply of electricity and heating. The poor are more likdy than the non­ poor to suffer from increased health risks associated with climate change (see the box for more details on the distributional aspecrs of climate change)~ Climate Change in Tajikistan Transmission Channels: The primary impact of climate change on the livelihoods of people will be observed through 1) the reduced water quantity and quality, which will affect agriculture and health (t!:rough the rise of water~borne diseases) as well as 2) the increased frequency and severity of disasters: mudflows) floods and droughts (2nd National communication of Tajikistan under UNFCC)~ These physical impacts can potentially deepen poverty and increase the possibility of permanent poverty trap5~ Poor people already struggle with a number of stresses. They have limited resources and the least capacity to adapt their livelihoods to changing conditions. Agriculture: There are three cbannels through which adverse climate conditions can aitect people',\i livelihoods from agriculture: (1) decline in agricultural productivity (yields), (2) reduction in agricultural wages and (3) increase in relative food prices. Simulat10ns based on household data show that a 20 percent decline in agricultural productivity can increase the national poverty rate by 13 percent and poverty gap by 24 percent respectively, A similar increase of relative food prices can Jead to a rise in poverty rate by 16 percent and poverty gap by 25 percent. A drop of income from agricultural wages will have a much smfiller jmpact on poverty (a 20% drop in agricultural wages increases poverty by 2 percent and poverty gap by 7 percent) as their share in the total income of most households js insignificant ~A.ll of these effeers wil1 have a stronger impact in rural than in urban areas. Thls is because rural areas have a much greater concentration of population around the poverty line, so that eycn a modcst decline In income/purchasing power wlll have a s1gnificant impact on poverty. Health: The major health impacts of climate change 10 Tajiki¢verty, tack of food & drini(ing water 0% Eu2? countries Tajikistan Source. \X:orld Bank ,<;taff eslimates based on P~LITS data.; hI] Barometer 300/ww.:e 69.2 ADAPTATIO~ TO CUMATE CHAc">;GE: A "NO-REGRETS" APPROACH 10. How should Tajikistan adapt to climate ciJatlge, givetl the many other pressing developmel1t challenges that it faces? Ate there trade-offs, or can long-ternl climate adaptation be reconciJed with near term development priorities? The report argues that, far from being in conflict with each other, climare change adaptation strategies for Tajikistan are in fact 1n close conformance \virh its general poverty reductIon and de\'elopment objectives, In fact, de\Telopment is an integral and most !n-lponant tool for adaptatioL Greater income diversification, improved health and t:ducadon as wel1 as better :lCcess to informatior., services) resources ar:d infrastructure enhances the adaptation capacity of households, particularly for the poor. Adapta.tion planning in Tajikistan should start wit/l tIle so-called (~o regrets~' poJicies--l.t:. In\,estnlent and policy decisions that v,rlll provide benefits under current climate conditions as well as strengthen resHience to future changes. 11. Tajikfstatl is tlot well adapted to its current climate let alone impending changes as evident in low agrieultural productivity, water stress, and high losses incurred due to disasters, Furthermore, many current polidcs exaeerhate rather than reduce vulnerability to climate change. This in particular relates to excessive emphasis on colton cultivation,l poor water management systems that do not create incentives for efficient water usc) and insecure land tenures that do not provjde farmers adequate ptoperty rights and hence incentives to properly develop land. Introducing reforms in these areas will help improve peopJe!s livelihood~ and facilitate economk growth irrespective of the climate chant.-rc scenarlos. 12. Alotlg with much needed policy reforms, Liev;,ing an effective adaptation strategy requires that adc(lwlte attention be directed towards two main areas ~1) building resilience to strengthen the abHity of households, communities a8 well as local and national governments to withstand any negative ruInate jmpacts and (2) improving the risk management capacity of households, particularly the poor> to cope with increased risks associated '-'rith climate change (figure). I Cotton has tradit:or:-aUr been favo::ed by po;icy :nakt.::s if! Tajikistan bf'..cause of its importance as a major foreign exchange (;amo.--'f, resulting in output being m:litl!ained at levels f:]r ::.bove what!$ cconornica:ly v:able. 13 Basic Elements of an Integrated Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Disaster Safety Nets & Agriculture & Economic Preparedn~ Insurance Rural Infrastructure ,y'" Ri!>k Management ~ Financial Services Preventiv,' Hcalthcar;; I~lEG!t.A.TEJ AnAPTAll0K Source: Adapted from 1... Cord, C HIL, C Hcr:!1ct, il;td G. van def Vir:k. (2008) cited earlier. Building greater resilience will require investments in agriculture and rural infrastructUle, economic diversification and preventive healthcarc, 1n agrkulturc, refornls should focus on removlng co 'IS ttai nts that tie farmers to cotton culrivation, crcaring incendves for efficient warer managenlcnt, and ensuring- secure land titles. Furthermure, development of extension scrvkcs will be necessary to promote slls!ainable land management, facHitate diversification towards crops: using less water and increase agricultural productivity. Building greater resilience to climate change will entail not just reducing dependence on crops Julnerable to variability in climacdc conditions, but also reducing dependence on agriculture. Creating conditions for development of more off~[arm lke1ihoods opportunitIes to reduce dependence on climate sensidvc activities in agriculture requires actions on several improvements in the prevailing investment climate to stimulate private investmenr and job~creation, skill building, better puhlic infrastrucrure, etc Lastly, healrh reforms should continue with an cmpha!jJs on preventive measures, jmprovemcnt of hygiene and strengthening disaster preparedness of the health sector, It will also he important to increase acccss to dean drinlcing water to reduce the incidence of water-borne diseases, Strengthem'ng risk management will require greater emphasis on measures to improve disaster management, enhance acceSS to financial services (particulariy 1n rural areas) and develop sakry nets and insurance products. Improving early warning fo'ystemfo', 5trengthening puhlic infrastructure (e,g. river bank dikes and levees), constructing shelters and working with communities to build their capacity to prevent and respond to disasters are good examples of disaster management acrivities that havc already been undertaken in Tajikistan. SigniEicallt investment will be needed to scale~up such initiatives to all vulnerable locations. It is also important to improve tile regulatory fra:rr:.ework for the hanking sector and provide support to development of microtinance institutions to help households and small businesses accumulate assets, diversify livetihoods/producdon and develop coping mechanisms that will make them less ,ulnerable to climate variability and extremes, Furthermore it will be necessary to develop flexible safety net programs that t address the needs of the chronic poor and can be scaled up in case of a disaster, which could help reduce poverry and increase resiliency to climate change. 13. Several development partners in Tajikistan have funded projects tbar contribute to clinate cbange adaptation by promoting sustainable management of natural resources, improving community level governance, strengthening local infrastructure or improving bealth care, primarily at the loc31 level using innovative community~driven approaches to improve management of natural resources and raise incomes. A supportive national regulatory framework will be imperative to allow for further development of these and other rdevant initiatives and to enable faster climate change adaptation. t4 14, Priority sectors: \linen P-LITS respondems were asked to choose the sinr)e-most important priority for addirional government spending related to climate change, (i) investing in increasing availability of electricity (22 percent), (ll) improving extension services and providing seeds more resilient to climate extremes (18 percent), and (iii) provicling clean drinkmg water (14 percent) received the highest share of vores from respondents (figure); (iv) providing more help and relief after natural disasters occur (10 percent), (v) reforestation to prevent soil erosion (8 percent), (vi) providing more reliable weather forecasts (! percent), and (vii) investing in health facilities and provision of health services \I percent) got the next highest share of votes. In other words, the key prjoritics for adaptation areas emerging from the survey~agrjculture, improvement of water management and infrastructure (mainly electriciry supply and irrigation); disaster management and public health are the same four key areas that the country's btest poverty reducdon strategy identifies as being especially important from both a climate change and development perspective, :\105t Important Priority for Additional Government Spending on Climate Change Adaptation 4 3 • Invest in increasing availability of electricity [ 5 • Improve extension services and provlde seeds more resilient to eli'T1ate extremes I • Provide clean drinking water • Provide more help and relief 2fter natural cisasten. ocewr i • Reforestation to preventsoil erosion • Provide more reliable weather forecasts ,> Invest in health facilities and orovls1o", of health services 18 Invest in irrigation :nfrastrwcture Develop disaster early-warning systems Faci:itate out-migration of people from areas prone to high climate change risk Source: W'orld Bank ;c;tnff estimates based on P~LITS d::tt::t, TARGETING PUBLIC INVESTMENTS: A REGIONAL VUI.NERABILITY INDEX 15. \V'hkh geographic locations in Tajikistan are most vulnetable to cumate change? Household vulnerability to climate change depends on diverse factors-Le, not just on likely physicJJ impacts of climate change. This report analyzes vulnerability as a function of rhree main factors: (i) exposure to climate change and varjabillty; (H) sensitivity to impacts of that exposure; and (tii) ability to adapt to ongojng and future chant,res. • Exposure to climate change and variability is highest in Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous ob.last (GBAO), as well as the South Khatlon lowlands because of their high frequency of extreme temperatures and broad range of intra~monthly temperature fluctuations. • Sensitivity is highest in tbe east mountain area Region of Republican Subordination (RRS) because of the area's teliance on agriculture, high sensirivity to disasters, and widespread food insecurity, Sensinviry is also high in South Sughd, North-East Kharlon hills, Varzob-Zarafshan and GBAO, • Adaptive capadty varies substantially, It is highest in GBAO because of its high scores on education aLd income diversificatIon; also good in tbe Somh-cast I{.hadon hills, tbe West RRS lowlands, and the South I{.harlon area: areas characterized by above-,lverage income levels and education, 15 Vulnerability map for Tajikistan • Exposure • Sensitivity 1-Adaplivecapadly ~ -g- ~ • ~ ~-g . c ,", " ;;;c5i:O , j e ~~ < ~ Z' ~~~ ::r $j , ~ 1G ~ ~ < " ""e= ~ ~~ Vulnerability index Source: W'orld Bank staff estimates based on data from several sources. See main report for details 16. The report presents a regional index ofvlIlnerabiHty for Tajikistan which is construC' ed based on the simple average of the above exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity sub-indices. Indic ltOtS of past climate variability and the frequency of disasters are used to assess exposure to climate ch Inge; health, livelihood, food security and demographic characteristics to determine sensitivity to climate impacts; while social, economic and institutional characteristics are used to assess adaptive capacity. The results show that vulnerability varies across different regions of Tajikistan according to socio-economic and institu'-ional factors in ways that do not follow directly from exposure, geography, or elevation. To the extent that Folicy makers in the country wish to direct funding toward areas with the highest vulnerability to climate :::hange, they should focus on rural areas, in particular eastern RRS mountains, Southern Sughd hills, and Kha Ion hills and lowlands (see figure above). Although these zones are vulnerable for somewhat different reasons rhey share a high degree of sensitivity to climate change, particular food insecurity, disaster sensitivity, and reliance on agriculture. They also have weak adaptive capacity, in parr sremming from low income and education levels. Their exposure is only moderate but their high sensitivity and fairly moderate adaptive capacity render these areas v---ulnerable. By contrast, urban areas as a composite group have the lowest vulnerability, fa lower than any of the rural zones, mainly because they have the lowest sensitivity, the second-highest adaptive capacity, and a verage exposure. 16 Summary of Key Recommendations on Climate Change Adaptation in Tajikistan Facilitate economic diversification. Priority measureS should include diversifIcation of agriculrural producnon, partieularly towards crops that use less water, and promotion of off-farm livelihood opportunities to reduce dependence on climate-sensitive acdviries. The latter will require improvement of the business climate, skill building, enhancement of public infrasrrucrure as well as development of banking and mkrofmance institutions (see paragraphs 2.4-2.16 for more if~lorm(/ti()tJ). Promote sustainable management of land resources and increase agricultural productivity. This will involve ensuring secure land owncrship to provide incenTives for sustainable rel'OU[Ce use, removing constraints that tje farmers to cotton cultivation and educating farmers on modern crop and land management techniques (ste paragraphs 2.2S~2'}1 and 2.36 for mure if!fc.rlllatio.tt)' Improve water management. Scale up existing initiatives aimed at decenrraliz.ing water governance, promote efficient: irrigation rechnologies and create incentives for efEdent water use, e.g. rhrough Introduction of individual meters and improving rhe collection ratt'S for water provision (seeparagraphs 2.28} 2.32,2.>3,234). Implement health reforms with an emphasis on preventive measures, improvement of hygiene and enhancement of disaster preparedness of the health sector. Currenr goverruCL:IU reforms aimed at strengthening primary health care should be continued with a particular attenrion to rhe needs of rural areas. Priority measures jndude rajsing qualifications of medical professionals in rural areas, rehabilitating the facilities and providing rnerucal equipment~ ensuring that vulnerable communities have stockpiles of essential. medicine and access to transportation to take patients to urban areas 1n case of disasters as well a.s improvement of sanitation and hygiene (fee paragraph! 2.17 - 2.27). Improve disaster prevention and response capacities. Scale up existing iniriatives on conducting natural hazard risk assessments, improvement of carty warning SYStC':t11S strengthenjng protecrive infrastructure, 1 construction of shelrc:rs and working with communities to improve their dis-aster re.:;ponse and prevention capacities (J'fe paragraphs 2.38 - 2.44for 111(;,.e it~fo!7l1t!t;ofl). Introduce flexible safety net programs that will address the needs of the chronic poor and could be expanded in case of a dlsaster or other shock. 1t will be best to limit the number of programs bur ensure that they arc well targeted and adequatelv financed f.ue para.r,raphs 2.53 - 2.60 for mon injormaliQn). Integrate climate risk into sectoral and national policy documents as well as budget frameworks. This will involve improving knowledge on climate change issues of the government officials) conducting sectoral yulncrabl1jry assessments, dev'elopment of the National Adaptation Strategy as well as integratlng climate risks into national and reglonal development plans to ensure that achievement of short-term goals (e,g. in the areas like infrastructure lnvestments or the use of natural resources) does not increase the country's vulnerability in the long-run (ret paragraphJ 2.65 (md 2,68jbr HjOrt: itiformation). Consider geographic targeting of adaptation investments. To the extent rhat policy makers wish to direct funding toward areas with the highest vulnerabiljty to climate change, rhey !:>houJd focus on rural areas, in particular eastern RRS mountains, Sourhern Sughd hills, and Kharlon hills and low1a.nds. These areas have the highest sensitivity to climate change impacts and the lowest adaptive capacity (see chapter 3 fir more _ £n/ormatilJrJ aboJl!l!,lfographic jk1rtation it] t-'fdnerobilit»). ................. ... _ ... _ - - - - - ­ 17 INTRODUCTION AND OUTLINE L Today there is a widespread consensus that global cl!mate is changing and that this proces;, ptesents an urgent development challenge. The effects of climate change are directly observed through the inctease in average annual temperatures as well as through climate shocks, particularly Hoods and droughts. ,,"ccording to rhe Stem Re,~ew on the Economics of Climate Change (2006), if current emission rrends cortinue, global temperatures will rise by 2-3C within (he next fifty years. Such increase can cause a permanent Ie- 58 of up to 3 percent of world output, compared with what could be achieved in a world without climate change, 2. Climate change (CC) impacts wlll be felt differentially across regions and localities: while som\~ parts of the worJd may injtially even benefit from modest rises in temperature, most countries will be negatbely affected. The poorest countries will suffer most, and within these eountries the poor will he impacted disproportionately. Disadvantaged geographic location, low incomes, poor infrastructure and lo\'. jnstitutional capacity are among the factors that make poor countries particularly vulnerable to the effec:s of climate change, 3. A recent World Bank study has warned that countries in the Europe and Central Asia (EC:\) region are significanrly threatened by climate change, with serious risks - e.g. Aoods, droughts and melting of glaciers ­ already in evidence. 1 According to this report, Tajikistan emerges as the n:O$t vulnerahle eounl1 y among tbe 28 ECA countries srudied. In large part. this js because Tajjkisran has social and produccive structures that make it very sensitive to the impact of a changing climate, as well s national communIcations to LJ0:FCC, much less attention bas heen paid to the analysis of economic, social and tustrihutiotJ:.ll aspects of c1imare change. Understanding whicb sectors. localities and population groups wtll be most aflected IS vital for development of adaptation strategies. The Current report aims to fill this gap by analyzing 1) the probable impacts on livelihonds by sector and location, 2) the potential impacts on household welfare and 3) the extent to which prevailing policies facilitate or impede adaptation to help jnform effecttve climate cha:1ge response strategies, It relies on diverse data sourees: weather station records, various household surveys, c::nsus data as well as intervlews wlth stakeholders to address these issues. 5. The Pilot Program on Climate Resilience has recently been launched in Tajlkisrs adaptation strategies and the new initiatives of donors and NGOs. 6. The report supports the conclu$ions of earlier $tudies that c]jmate change will act as a multipli,?r of existing stresses on natural and socio-economic systems. In Tajikistan, like in the rest of RCA) vulnenbility in the Gear future will be driven by poor environmental management, crumbling infrastructure ar,d economic policies rather than by the magnitude of climate change itself. This view is supported by the results of tbe regIonal anaJysis, which shows that vulnerability varies according to socio-econorr:ic and institutional development in ways that do not follow directly from exposure or elevation. Some of the sparsely populated high alt.itude mountain zones are less vulnerable than the prime agricultural valleys. I \'(!orld Bank (2009): ,,4dujJting /(J Cli!1lu/f' Chan.ge itl Elftr.pe tJlJa' Central Asia 18 7, The report argues [hat fa~ter social and economic development is the be:H strategy for adaptation, Higher Income levels, improved health and education a~ well as better access to quality public services and infrastructure enhances the capacity of households, and the economy as a whole for adap[arion. Lesson8 from the experience of donor-supported projeC[s show that adaptation to climate change can have significant synergies with local and national development objectives. The report analyzes current policies and regulations (e,g, land tenure rights, water management. agricultural policies, etc) and identifies key reform priorities to facilitate faster climate change adaptatiofL \v'henever possible, the experience of CXi.sti:lg initiatives is cited to illustrate good adaptation practices, 8, '1 'he docurnent is organized as follows: chapter 1 presents the physical1mpacts and transmission channels of climatc change, 1LS lnlpacts on household welfare as well as the resuhs of the public opinion survey on climate change in Tajikistan; chapter 2 SUggCSlS the key elements of the adaptation strategy and provides examples of the current donor-supported initiativcs that are relevant for adaptation; finally, chapter 3 presents a ~uh-national vulnerahility index and identities the localities most vulnerable to climate change. 19 1. PHYSICAL IMPACTS, TRANSMISSION CHANNELS, AND PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 1 Country Background and Chapter Outline 1.1 Tajikistan is a landlocked country in Central J\sia with a Table 1.1. Tajikistan at a Glance population of approximately seven million people and per capita Population - 7 million pt'opk GDP of US$702 (2008). The economy depends on exports of 1::;timatcd population growth rnt:- ~2 percent RumJ Population CrCTcent of tom!) 73.7 cotton, aluminum and hydroelectricity as well as on remittances Poverty lhtl' at 52.15 ada;' (11PP: 41 percent from migrants to Russia, csrimarcd at 46 percent of GOP in 2008,) I ~mrloymt:nt "\g:ic:Jltufl: 44 rJCrcrut 1,2 Tajikistan consists of four adminisrrative ulvlslofls (oblasts). ~cr\'i((:s &. Trade 26 fK'ICcnt Manufacturing- ~ 6 percent These arc Sughd~ Khadon. the autonomous oblast of Gorno­ Orher ~ 24 peKcnt Badakhshan (GBAO) and the Rayons of Republican Uncm lovmcnt rate ~ 9-5 creen Subordination (RRS). Oblasts are in turn subdivided into ·18 Source: Wodd Bank. Tajjkj.mm Coumry Hctt:f;2009; TL"'S 2007 smaller auminlstrative units called rayons. 1.3 j\,fost of Tajikistan's terrain (93 percent) is covered by fllountains, and over half of the cOllnuy .is situated above 3000 meters. Only 6 percent of the land area is arable.' Grains and cotton are major crops, cultivated on abour 70 percent of the cropped area. s 1.4 Tajikistan is the poorest country in the Europe and Central ."sia (EC") regton: 54 percent o' population .is dassified as poor and 17 percent as extremely poor at the end of 2007.':; In Tajikistan. poverty is concentrated primarily in rural areas, which reflects the demographics of the country. Overall rural areas account for 75.7 percent of all poor and 70.9 percent of extremely poor in Tajikistan. 1.5 The chapter provides a brief description of the phvsical impacts of climate change as well as )resents the key findings of the nationally representative survey On public perceptions of climate change (Ce) It attempts to identify how CC impacts can potcntially affect agriculture) health and the incidence of d1sHsters as well as to diffcrcntiate the effects on welfare groups whenever possible. The choice of the sectOfs is Justified by their high sensitix,xy to climate change impacts (which is further aggravated by the existing challenges facing these $ectors) as well as by the survey results:, which show that potential crnllate shocks affecting agriculture, health and d.isaster frequency are of fllajor public concern, 1.6 The chapter's findings reveal that any shocks to agrk-ulture CHO n:,sult in significant increa$e~ in poverty, particularly in rural areas and that the poor are more vulnerable to the health risks associated ""ith dimate change. Furthermore, disasters are already causing the highest human losses in EC\ and their frequency and severity is expected to increase with climatc change, These fmdtngs call for actions to improve agricultural productivity, facilitate economic diversification; reduce rural poverty and invesl in health infras!ructure and disaster prevention programs. 'Tajikistan Country Briel World Bank. 2009. ~ The Jecond 7\T:.ttional Communkatiotl V the Republic of Tq;i"kiJtan under the Uniled l'...TalionJ FmmctJ'ork COltJlflntrOlt on Climate ChaJtge. The Government ofTajikistan. 2008. ~ ./1griculture in Tqjikistan, Statistical Yearbook, Tajikistan State Statistics Committee. 2007, Dushanbe (, T"y'ikiJtan Lil'lng Standards lvlcasurctJJCflt SunH!.F indicators at a Glancc, State Statistics Conunittec, C~ICEL 20C7 20 1.7 The rest of the chapter is organized as follows: section 1.2 descnbes the physkal impact of climate change; section 1.3 analyzes the potential impact of climate change on different sectors and welfare groups, section 1.4 presents key findings of the climate change survey, and :;ection 1.5 offers concluding remarks. 1.2 Physical impacts of climate change in Tajikistan: trends and projections' 1.8 The climate is changing throughout Europe and Central Asia region. In Tajikistan, the physical impact of climate change is observed through increase in average annual temperatures~ melting of glaciers and the increased frequency and severity 6f disasters. According to the Second ~ational Communication of Tajikistan, prepared under UNFCCC (2008), average annual temperatures rose by about O.S-O.SC across most parts of the country during the 65 year period studied~ with the biggest increases observed in Dushanbe (1.0C) and Dangara (1.2C). it is estimated that the mean annual temperature will rise by 0.2 0.4C in most areas of Tajikistan by 2030 in comparison with the period of 1961 - 1990. The maximum increase of temperature is expected in ,,-inter - by 2C (Model ECHAM4/0PYC3, Potsdam Institute for Climate Research). 1.9 \varmer temperatures contribute to the melting of glaciers, In fact~ since 1930 the total area of glaciers in Tajikistan declined hy one-third and is expected to fall a further 1520 percent over the next 30AO years, with tnany ~maU glaciers disappearing altogether. Such changes have a major impact on hydrology and increase the nsk of floods. Melting of glactcrs jn Tajikistan contributes 10-20 percent of the flow of large rivers annually; during hot and dry years this contribution can reach 70 percent. Climate wanning will intensHy the melting of glaciers, which will initially increase the summer \Vater flow but in the long-term will reduce water availability. Many communities '\vill likely suffet critical water 5 hortagcs \\lith agriculture and hydropower sectors being most negatively affected. 1.10 To date, changes in precipitation have been quite uneven due to topographical diversity of the country. During [he reviewed period~ the amount of precipitation in the Eastenl Pamir (tnountainous plateau \'vith the elevation of 4,000 - 6,000 meters) reduced by 510 percent and in Murghab by 44 percent but increased by 5­ 10 percent in Central TajikIstan and by 20 percent in the southern sub-mountain areas. The complexity of moufltaJn landscape makes it very difficult to accurately predict future precipitation scenarios and there is :significant disagreement in precipitation projections obtained u;';lng different climate scenario;; and models. 1.3 Transmission Channels and Distributional Impacts 1.11 According to the 2".1 National Communication of Tajikistan under CNFCCC, the primary impact of dim ate change on the livelihoods of people and the economy as a whole will be observed through 1) the reduced water quantity and quality, which will affect agriculture, health (through the rise of water-borne diseases) and the hydropower sector and 2) the increased frequency and severity of disasters (1nuJflows, floods and droughts) These physical impacts will have effects at the household and national level and can potcntially deepen poverty and 1nCfcasc the possibility of permanent poverty traps (Fig. Ll). The rest of this chapter will provide a more detailed assessment of the impact of climate change on agriculture, health and the incidence of disasters as well as on different welfare group:;, 7 Unlcss othct\,,1.se mentioned, all climace-relared infottnation in this section is based on the Second ~ational Communication of Talikistan under UN FCC, cited ahove 21 Figure 1.1: Transmission Channels through which CC Impacts the Poor Housohold-­ National· lovolimpacts lovol impacts w (9 ~ ::c u ~ ::::; u y Income and non.4lcomo IXIvorty aoo pave rty traps Source: L Cord, C. lIcnnct, and (;. van del' \,ink, (2008): Climate Cbo1lge a1ld POPel"!)': T(}}IJonis all I1Itegrated P(}li~)' Fmme/JJ(}I~_jiJ,.AdaPtali(}ll. PREi\f Economics of Climate Change Discussion Papers, \Vorld Hank, Washington DC. Agriculture 1.12 The agricultural sector of Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability stems from both primarily negative physical impacts as well as from resource and institutional constrain '5, cropping patterns that favor cultivation of water-intensive cotton and the significant environmental challcn~cs faced by the sector today (e.g. deforestation and land degradation). The major physical impacts of climak change are expected co be manifested through increased water scarcity, worsening of soil conditions and de :;ertification, change in timing and lengths of plant/crop growing seasons as well as the outbreaks of pests. 1.13.Itccording to forecasts, the flow of rivers will decrease in summer in the long-term due to diminished inputs from snow, rain and glaciers. Groundwater reserves will likely decrease as well due to teduction of recharge from surface water and precipitations. Higher temperatures will result in highl~r potential evapotranspiration increasing plant water consumption by 1-10 percent by 2030. These factors will put pressures on the poorly maintained irrigation system, whose efficiency is currently estimated at 55 percent. x 1.14 It is also expected that climate change will increase the intensity and spread of land degracation. Long dry periods, in combination with high temperatures in spring and summer seasons, will lead to the intensification of desertification processes in Southern and Central Tajikistan.'l In addition, pest infestations can become more common. .ItS temperatures rise, some pest species can become active earlier in the season, increase the intensiveness of their reproduction as well as expand the area of rheir spread. In Tajikistan, potential outbreaks of cotton worms and locust are of particular concern. In recent year~, increased populations of these pests have caused significant economic damage. For example, during 2003-:~005, cotton worms' outbreak has led to a reduction of cotton harvest for up [Q 50 percent within the area e;~ceeding 36, 000 hectares in southern Tajikistan. Similarly, locust outbreaks are becoming more common ane from 2000 to 2007 the areas infected by locust increased over five times - from 16 thousand to 85 thousand hectares in the southern districts of Tajikistan. 1U 8 The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2008. The Set'ond jVational Commrmimtion qf the Republi,' qfl 'fjiki.rtan under the United Natiom Framework COnlJention on Climate Change, Dushanbe ') tfinistry for Nature Protection of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2002. The First National Communication of the Republic of Tajilcistan to the "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Dushanbe to The Goverrunent of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2008. The Second IVational Communication qf the Republit' qfT 'fjiki.rtan under the United J"\7ationJ Framework Convention on Climate (]ymz~e, Dushanbe 22 The agricultural sector will also suffer fronl the increased frequency and scv~rily of the extreme weather events: droughts, mudflows and floods that can destroy crops and livestock and threaten people's live1ihood~;. 1.15 Agricttltllmi In.-Gmt and We/fan. With about three-fourtbs of Tajikistan's population living in the countryside and heavily dependent on farming, agriculture is one of tbe most important livelihoods. About 40 percent of households countrywide dertve more than half of tbeir income from agriculture while 20 percent obtain more than seventy percent of their income from agriculture. People employed in agriculture face the highest risk of poverty as median incomes ate Just 70 Somoni per month, which is below the poverty line. Geographically, reliance on agriculture is highest in the rayons of GBAO, Eastern RRS and Southern Khatlon. 1.16 Households In Tajikistan depend on Table 1.2: De end":e__ n,,:c,,:e,-,o~n==::ri:.::c,,:u::lt::u,,,re,,:,-,_ _, Share of ag. agriculrure 1n three maJor ways: 1) through Share of production Shafe of production of agricultural goods for sclf­ Quintiles of agricultural (home proJun:J purcha~ed hh wages in consumption and for salc~ 2) through agricultural cOIlHlmrtion food & farm total food in hh income) in total ron::;umpllou wages and 3) through the purchase of agricultural I11comc ~no)mc products for consumption. All welfare groups have Poorest 39 6 43 a high share of agricultural production in total 2 44 8 42 income, although households in the 2n J , 3rtl and 4 L' 3 45 42 4 45 5 41 quintiles are more dependent on agriculture (fable Richest 38 4 39 1.2). This can be explained by tbe fact that [he poorest households have limited access to land (e.g. Overall 42 6 41 no land ownersbip, smaller land plots or marginal ----= Source: 1TSS 2007 estimates lanJ~) as well as cannot afford modern agroinputs while the wealthiest households tend to have more diversified incomes. Agricultural wages arc very low, so they constitute a vcry small share of total income. In tact. only 3 percent of households derive !norc than 50 percent of total income from agricultural wages. 1.17 Food produced for households~ consumption dominates agriculnltal production. Even in urban areas 1 the share of home-produced foou accounts for a quarter of total income, The share of income from the sold produce (i.e. net agricultural income) 15 relatively low - 8 percent for rural households (Table 1.3). Even families with comparatively large land plots - over 21 sotka~ (0.2 ha) derive only 14 percent of eash incotne from agriculture, Thi~ can be explained by the dominance of subsistence agriculture as well as by lack of access to markets in rural ar('as (many :::ayons axe cut off major roads in winter and spring). _ ..... T a bIe 13: Sources 0 fI nco me b y C onsumptlon Q' 'Ie s h utntl -~ .... Urban Rural !!Orl1C Net I Irnnc :-":et Pl'odu:.:r;d ·\htflC. ~ocial Pn"juc;d ;\~tfi( $:)ci;,; ()Ul:ltik· \X\l.gcs FooJ :{c:-nittanu:" [nc():tK Protection \Vagcs h)()d RCrnltlances Income ProtectJon 1 54 23 ') 2 6 38 35 11 10 4 2 47 29 10 3 4 36 39 10 8 4 3 SO 29 8 1 4 34 41 11 8 3 4 50 26 11 1 5 32 44 11 7 3 5 55 22 8 1 5 35 39 11 8 3 Total 51 26 9 2 5 35 40 11 8 3 .. I Source: TIS:::; 2UO" ~stunates 1.18 Remittance:; constitute an important source of lOcome for all welfare groups and are higher in rural areas. Rural households are more likely to :;end their members abroad due to lack of employment opportunities and low income:; from agriculture. The share of agricultural income in total income is 30 23 percent for migrants' households and 53 percent for non-migrants' households. However, despi--e having an extra source of income, migrants' households continue to engage in agricultural activities and are not less dependent on self-produced food. The share of home-produced food in total food consumption i::i 46 percent in migrant households versus 45 percent in non-migrant households in rural areas and 23 percent versus 24 percent in urban areas respectively. In other words, migrant households continue to depend Oll agriculture and are not less sensitive to potential climate shocks. 1.19 Most households have small land plots (Table 1.4), hardly suitable Table 1.. Land uwnership 4' for commercial farming. Access to land (own or rented) is correlated Land size percent of with higher consumption. I laving up to 10 sotkas of land for farming on (I sotka = 0.01 hal households no land 13 average increases consumption by 12 percent, while having more than 20 <10 sotkas 36 sotkas increases consumption by 20 percent in comparison to the 10-20 sotkas 24 situation of no land ownership.lI 20-100 sotkas 21 > 100 sotkas 6 5hor/-term E(feds o[Dedine in Agricultural ProdudilJit;y on Weltan; Total 100 Source: TLSS 2007 estmates 1.20 Thc analysis below attempts to estimate the impact of a hypothetical decline of agricultural productivity on welfare. Only short-term impacts are modeled. Long-term effects are expected to be smaller as households will gradually adapt. The simulations are based on TLSS 2007 survey that does not include cotton producers, thus they are not covered in the analysis. There are thtee channels through which adverse climate conditions can affect people's livelihoods from agriculture (Figure 1.2), namely through decline in yields (direct effect) as well as reduction of agricultural wages and increase in food prices (indirect effects). These ilnpacts will likely occur at different times, so the simulations below analyze the effects of each of these channels separately. Figure 1.2: Impact of Decline in Agricultural Productivity on Welfare ----.. Farmers and households that produce food Agricultural wagt! labort!rs Higher food priee~ Households that purchase food Source: \Vorld Bank staff 1.21 The estimates of the decline in agricultural yields are based on the assumption that farmers will use the same inputs and grow the same kind of crops. The modeled decline in productivity is uniform across all farmers regardless of their access to irrigation, geographic location and the crop mix they gro'v. Thus the modeled impacts are upper bound of what should be expected in reality. 1.22 A decline in yields will affect agricultural wages. The assumption is that labor producti-.,-ity will fall uniformly with yields. Farmers will not pay workers above their marginal labor productivity, s J either the wages will fall or demand for labor will go down. The modeling of this effect takes into account adjustment of employers but not of the agricultural laborers. Most likely agricultural wage earners will switch to non­ agricultural jobs, migrate or use other adaptation strategies, so as in the previous example, the actual impact on total income will be smaller. II World Bank 2009. Republic ofTq"ikistan Poverty ASJeJJment, Washington DC 24 1.:?3 The analysis below a~sumes that decline in agricu1tural productivity in Tajikistan will lead to a rise in food prices in the country. This can occur under certain conditions, e,g. the rise in the global food prices and/or import restrictions, The simulations estimate how consumption and poverty levels are going to bc affected if households continue to buy [he same food basket. Again, as in the previous t\Vo examples this is an upper bound as households wtlllikely switch to cheaper goods. 1.24 Figure 1.3 illustrates the impact on household's income of a hypothetical decline in agriculrural production by 20 percent. This effect will result in an overall decline in 1ncorne of 8.5 percent Rural areas will suffer almost twice as much as urban. Decline in total income will constitute 9.6 percent 10 rural areas aod 5.4 percent in urban. Die mIddle quintile, will be more affected as they are more dependent on agriculture. Figure 1.3: Impact of a hypothericaJ dedine of agricultural production by 20percent on households' income 0 20 Q 40 60 80 100 0 " e 2 " .~ .,. ·4 ·6 § , , .5 ·8 '.... " .5 ·10 v "F" .., " .., .1,2 Percentiles of household consumption I L --Tot" Source; TLSS 2007 estimates --qJ(.,)! 1,25 Decline in income from agricultural wages will not have a significant impact on welfare, as agricultural wages arc low and their share in total homchold's income is insignificant (Figure 1.4). A hypothetical decline in agricultural wages by 20 percent will result in a decline of households' income by about 1.2 percent. This will affect primarily rural households whose income will decline by 1.6 percent VS. 0.3 percent in urban areas. Figure 1.4: Impact of a hypothetical decline of agricultural wages by 20 percent on households' income o 20 40 60 80 100 0.5 " E 0.0 .~ -05 ;; ·1.0 '0 ~ -1.5 .s ~ ·2.0 -2.5 . t-. -----------______.·__ ._N. _____ --.~------- -3.0 - ...... - ....- ..---- ...._-- ---------~-- '* ~ Percentiles of household consumption --Totar --Rural Urban Source: 2007 estimates 1.26 In contrast, an increase in relative food prices will have a more serioui> impact as food expenditures eonstirmc a sizable share of households' budgers (Fig. 1.5). A 20 percent increase in food prices will reduce housebolds' consumption by 8.2 percent on average. Inc poor will be affected slighdy more than the non­ poor. Consumption of the poorest quintile will be reduced by 8.5 percent and consumption of the wealthiest 25 quintile by 7.8 percent. The effect will be stronger in urban areas. Consumption of the urban poor will decline by 10.3 percent. Figure 1.5: Impact of a hypothetical increase in food prices of20 percent on household consumption o 20 40 60 0 1~·~-r~-·-~-~~~- which currently does not exceed 40 percent. ;4 1~31 \'('ater-borne diseases arc already a major cause of morbidity in Tajikistan, According to 2007, 23.4 'n.ss percent of people iliar reported having some illness dunng the four weeks before the survey, had diseases that could be caused by the poor quality of water. 1be sur,rey results also show that access to improved drinking water sources has declined in all regions of Tajikistan (Fig~1.6)~ In fact, nearly half of the rural population relies on unprotected sources like takes, rivers or unprotected wells. The exposure to various pathogens is aggravated by the fact that almost 40 percent of households that uses water from unprotected sources does not boil or treat their water. ~!,igure 1.6: Percentage of rural households withaccess to improved water source 90 80 70 60 50 .1999 40 .2003 30 20 2007 10 I o Sughd Khatlon RRS GBAO Total Source: TLSS 2007 estimates 12 The Goveu1ITlent of the Republic of Tajikistan. 200& The Second !-..;-ationai (ommll1;ication of/he Republic ofTqjikiJtan under the UNited .Nations Framell'ork Convention on Climate Change, Dushanbe I.l :\1c,\fichaeJ ,\.], D,H. CampbellLendmm, CF CorvaLin, KL~ Eb~ ,\~ Githeko, J.D, Scheraga and "\, Woodward ~ 2003, Climate cha,!~e ana' buman health ri.ski" and repo1Jsl!.r. \v110, Geneva, 1+ The Government of [he Republic of Ta-iikistan. 2008. The Second }Vational Communication of the Republic ofTqjikixtan under tbe Uniled !\~f.Hi(}flX FramelJ-'()r.k convention on Climate Changl"!., Dushanbe 1.32 Lastly, the health sector will be strongly affected by the extreme weather events. Disasters (particularly mudflows and floods) result in physical injury and death, dccrcasc nutrition and raisc thc risk of water-borne and infectious diseases due to disruption of public water supply and sewage systems as well as o'.'ercrowding of population in temporary camps. In the past, floods have often been associated with the (,utbreaks of water-borne diseases, particularly typhoid. For instance, following the heavy rain and floods almost 9,000 people contracted the typhoid fever (95 died) in 1997. The floods of 2002 and 2003 have ab, resulted in typhoid outbreaks with over 500 of documented cases in each year. 15 1.33 Disasters also damage health infrastructure reducing the availability of health services, at the time when they are most needed. This is of particular concern, given the dire state of medical facilities, p;Lrticularly in rural areas: only 29 percent of rural health facilities has access to piped water on premises, S percent to communicatjons (phone or radio) and 12 percent to transportatjon vehicles including amhula Ice cars. In winter period, electricity and heating availability in rural areas does not exceed six and four hours respectively.16 1.34 Distributional imDai1.r. The poor are more likely to suffer from the increased health risks ass'>ciated with climate change than the non-poor due to (1) inability to cover out-of-pocket expenditures for medical services, (2) higher prevalence of water-borne diseases among thc poor than the non-poor an( (3) weaker immune systems of the poor stemming from malnutrition and adverse living conditions. The analysis of 'l'LSS (2007) shows that almost 46 percent of the poorest households found it impossible or vcr;' difficult to pay for health care, compared to 27 perccnt of the richest households. "lmost one-third of households in the poorest quintile did not seek medical care when falling ill, primarily due to inability to cover healthcare costs (rLSS 2007). 1.35 Poor people are more likely to be affected by water-borne diseases and malnutrition than the non-poor. The incidence of diarrhea is 1.4 times higher among households in the poorest quintile than in d:e wealthiest quintile (TLSS 2007). Furthermore, there arc pronounced differences in caloric intake by welfare status. The poorest consumption decile consumes only 1,550 calories per person per day while the ri:hest decile consumes almost 4,000 calories per day. Children frOln the poorest quintile are ahnost twice as likely to be severely underweight as those from the wealthiest quintile l7 . Overall, up to one third of the rura population faces food insecurity and 27 percent of children are chronically malnourished. r( is well-known th-.tt long-term food deprivation weakens immune systems and makes people more vulnerable to infectious disea~ es. Natural Disasters 1.36 Tajikistan is highly prone to disasters ...According to the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 85 percent of Tajikistan's area is threatened by mudflows. Landslides are also conunO"1 and some 50,000 landslides have been reported by Tajik Glavgeology during the 1990s 1 ' Furthermore, th, occurrence of droughts has increased. In the past 60 years, the country has suffered eight major droughts and with the expected rise in climate aridity the frequency and severity of droughts is forecasted to increase. Tl- e frequency and magnitude of floods will also go up as warming temperatures will increase the rate of snow melting and lead to overflowing of river banks. Furthermore, climate change can potentially affect the hcidence of 13 Eurasianet. http://\\"ww.eurasianet.org/dcpartments/em-ironmcnt/articlcs/ca\'10?40:1.shtnll and .\BC News http://\\\\"\v.abe.net.au/news / stories 12003 111 10:2/",:,ths~ttribut.able to Disasters'" in E:ttro.1'-"_':'fld Central Asia (1990-2009) l I ::~~ i-=-~--==~--=====----~~=___ ---~~- _-,~_.-,~_J w.. I 1400 - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------------------------.-------------------­ 1200 983 10M 10m 800 600 400 c _________________•_ _ _ _ _ _ . - - - ------------- ----------- ------------------------------·,,;bSJ-··­ 200 o jT>isa:;~(;f$ this graph include floods and mass movements (Oludf;ows, bndslidcs, Jvalanche\' nod rockfalls) Source: EM-DAT: The OFD"\/CRED International Disasrtr Database www qmbtbc acc('~$cd un ;\fay 25, 2010 Figure 1.10: Disaster-related Casualties by Rayon (1997-2008) \ • Source: Prepared by \\/orld Bank staff based on data from the Committee of Emergency Situations and Gvil Defense, Tajikistan, Map shows the numbC:f of disastcr··rdatcd cawalti..:'P that occurmJ in mch rayon during 1997~2008, 1.40 It was not possible to differentiate the impact of disasters by welfare status because only a minor share of households in TLSS was directly .ffected by disasters. However, evidence from global studic, shows that the poor tcnd to suffer disproportionately as their housing is of inferior quality and often CO,lStructed in hazardous locations. They also cannot afford tbe costs of migration to less hazard-prone locat.ons. Lastly, after disasters occur, it takes them longer to restore tbeir livelihoods as the poor tend to have non-diversified incornes and little savings, 30 1.4 Public Perceptions of Climate Change: Evidence from the P-LITS Survey 1.41 The findings of the nationally representative household survey comulissioned for the report. Pi/a! ttl TranJitiOti Jlml!')' (p-UrS), show that public awareneSS of the different consequences of climate change is quite high (similar ro pre'lailing levels in EU27 countries and Kazakhstan) and that a large majority of the reSpOndL'11tS arc already affected by climate-related hazards. 1.42 The clitnate change questionnaire was one of the modules of a larger Pilot Life in Transition Survey (P­ UTS), which was organized in Tajikistan and I':ltion o(lile P-LiTS sample in Tajikistan Region # households interviewed Dmhanbe 50 GB~-\O 20 Soghd 150 Khatlon 170 RSS 110 Total 500 Source: World Bank Pilot Life in 'l'ran$irion Survey (P-LfTS) 1.43 The climate change module included many questions from a special Eurob:uomcter survey on attitudes towards climate change that was canvassed in all ELJ27 countries in 2008,21 along '\vith a few additjonal que,;;tions of special interest and relevance to Tajikistan. As a result, the data collected for Tajikistan can be compared not just \vith Kazakhstan but also v.r1th EU27 countries in selected subJect areas. 'T'he climate change module is prcsentetl in Annex 2. 1.4'i Climate Change,' 'lwqn;ne.f'· f!.{ tbe Alain CtJIIsex and C'JnseOJlem'fs;,' Respondents in P-1 JTS were asked if they thought they were well informed about the different consequences of climate change. with answers recorded on a 4-point scale; (i) verT weil-jnformcd, (11) fail'ly wen-informed. (ill) not velY well-infonned~ and (tv) not:at all inforulcd. Public awarene:;s of the ..lifferent consez group: Poorc;;c oncAhird of ropulation 0,3512 0,1299 2,70 O.P1 ~1.itldlt: ont>:hird of popul:ltioo 01175 0,1237 0,95 (C4 Riche"t one-third of popnlatinn Reference Category 2. Region of Residence Du,.;han'!::e Q,8281 0.1831 4.52 fWO ilHV) -0,3183 0,2526 -1.26 0,;-1 Soghd ·(),2S78 01262 -204 O.{;4 Khatlor. Rdcn::nce Category RRS -0,3038 01337 -2.27 3. Sale/barter of farm products is 0.5226 0,15'18 3,38 household's main source of livelihood 4. Awareness of main consequences of CC :--Jot at all informed Refetencc Category N(it vcry well jr:.f(>lHtCU 050;8 0.1832 274 O.U1 l<'airly well mf(Hmeu 1,1215 0.1829 6,13 u.oo \'err well informed 1.5978 0.2341 6.83 O,i~1 Source: \Vorld Bi'lnk Haff estimi'l.t(~s bas(~d on P-LITS data. n ··465) Log likelihood - -846,52, Pseudo R2 - 0.0747 Frequency Percent Income level IJoorc!:>t (mc~thirtl 167 33,40 r-..hJtlk: 167 33.40 Richc~t {lOc-rhjnJ 166 33.20 Region: Du::banbc 50 10.00 (lHAO 20 4,00 Soghd 150 30.00 Khatloll 170 ,34·,00 RRS 110 22,00 Sale/barter of fann products is the main source of livelihood of the household No 436 87,20 y", 64 12.80 Awareness of main consequences of climate change Not at a[ info:-mcci 44 9,22 Not very wdl infOlmeo :62 33,96 Fairly wdl informetl 227 47.59 \'cry weI.:. informed 44 9,22 1.50 Climate-re!:lIed Ha..ards D"tillg.fI!LF'li.'·! to Ye,1rs: Sixty-two percent of respondents in Tajikistan teported having encountered extreme hot/cold seaSons that were harmful for health during the past 10 years; 42 36 percent experienced unpredictable and extreme weather that harmed agricultural production, while 40 percent reported having suffered a decline ln fresh water availability for drinking (Figure 1.16). Figure 1.16; Respondents affected by climate-related hazards during past 10 years 62 E)(treme hot/cold ,>ea~ons that were harmful for health 23 Unpredlctilbl(') and extreme weather that harmed 42 agricultural production Dedine j('; fresh water llvallability for drinking 40 • Tajikistan 36 K,'I1akhstan Oecllne in fresh water availability for irr-igation Natural disasters (e.g. floOdS, fires. modslides, etc.) .;J.l!11•••• 23 o 20 40 60 30 Perccntot Source: \V1orld Bank staff estimaces based on p-Ln'S data. 1.51 A:::; Pigure L l6 show~, the reported incidence of floods, mudslides, ftrcs~ and other such natural disasters lS much higher in Tajikistan than Kazakhstan (22.8 vs. 1.4 percent), However, recent meteorological records indicate that changes in average tesnperatures have been of fairly similar magnitude in the two countries.24 FurthelIDore, a rnuch larger share of the population of Kazakhstan hves in areas with harsh winters, so the pattern of reported incidence of adverse impacts of climate related hazards across the two countries is in fact the opposite to what one has expected apnon. 1\ much higher share of respondents in Tajilcistan rcport having suffered extreme hotl cold scasOns that were harmful for health than in Kazakhstan (62 vs. 23 percent) or unpredictable and extrenle \veather that harmed agricultural production (42 vs. 9 percent). -The differences in exposure to advetse climate effects alone cannot explain large disparities in respondents' answers suggesting that there are pronounced differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the I:\vo countries. As is widely highlighted in the literature on likely climate-change impacts, countries with higher incomes, stronger institutions, developed infrastnlCture and puhlic services are more resilient to the negative physical impact$ of climate. In 2007, the per capita gross national income (G~I) of Tajikistan ($460) was less than one-tenth the G~I of Kazakhstan ($5,060)]. 1.5 Concluding Remarks 1.52 Public aWlireness of the consequences of climate change is fairly high in Tajiki5tan (similar to prevailing levels 1n Ell countries) c\'~CI1 if awarcnes~ of its causes and ways to slow down climatc change is lower. A large number of respondents have becn directly affected by dimau>related hazards: over the past ten years (for instance, 62 percent of interviewees in Tajtkistan vs. 23 percent in Kazakhstan have suffered from the c.xtreme hotl cold seasons that were harmful for health and 42 percent VS. 9 percent respectively from extreme weather that harmed agricultural production). These findings suggest that Tajikistan is not well adapted to its current climate conditions, H For instance, as documented in the two counmes' respective :::--Jational Couunurucations prepared recently under the Cllired ~ation>s Framework Convention for Climate Change (UN},CCC). 1.53 'Ine physical effects of climate change in Tajikistan will have primarily negative unpaets on ne economy and the livelihoods of the people. Agriculture and health emerge as the two sectors that will be particularly affected. This is due to both adverse climate impacts as well as the existing challenges faced by these sectors. 1.54 Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to any shocks in agriculture. This is because of a large number of people employed in this sector (almost half of the labor force) as well as a high share of agricultural production in the total income of all welfare groups. Food production (for self-consumption & sale) and agricultural wages constitute 48 percent of total income on average. furthermore, the sector already suffers from ~ number of environmental problems and low productivity, which further increases its sensitivity to climate chi_nge. 1.55 There are three channels through which adverse climate conditions can affect people's livelihoods from agriculture: decline 1n agricultural productivity (yields), reduction in agricultural wages and increa~e in relative food prices. The first two channels will have a stronger impact on the middle quintiles while th<, third - on the poor, particularly those residing in urban areas. The sin1ulat1ons of 'ft hypothetical decline in agricultural productivity show that even a 10 percent decline has a noticeable impact on poverty. Po\~erty impacts are much stronger In rural areas, which is due both to a stronger dependence on agriculture as wei: as a higher concentration of people around the poverty line in rural areas. 1.56 The policy implications of these findtngs are that there is an urgent need to increase productivity of the agricultural ::.ector as well as [0 create conditions for economic diversification. Furthcrmof(, it will be importa n t to develop flexible social assistance programs, which could be scaled up in case of a food crisis. rt is also necessary to improve living standards and reduce poverty in rural areas where tbe majo-1ty of Tajik population currently lives. 1.57 Similar to the effects on agriculture, climate change will act as a multiplier of existing problems in the health sector. 111ese include high prevalence of ,"vater-borne diseases, the dire state of health facilities, particularly in rural areas and high levels of food insecurity. The poor will be affected more than the non-poor due to large out-of pocket expenditures for medical services, as well as a higher prevalence of water-borne diseases and malnutrition among the poor. Addressing these problems is important to improvt.: the health status of the population irrespective of the climate change scenarios. 1.581.. 'itsdy, climate change can increase the risks of natural hazards. Disasters are already resulting .in significaut human and financial losses and Tajikistan has the largest number of casualties associated with disasters in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. So, even in the absence of climate change there lS an urgent need to invest in disaster prevention programs as \vell as to insure a more effective response wLen disasters OCCilX. The next chapter provides a more derailcd dcscriprion of the potential policy and investment decisions that can strengthen resilience to climate change while addressing the immedia te needs and improving the livelihoods of the people. 38 2. ADAI>TING TO CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2,1 The impacts of climate change are already beJOg felt in TaJikistan and will likely intensify in the future, This necessitate:" concerted adaptation efforts, i.e, responses (0 reduce vulnerability to current climate conditions and adjust to potential climate changes, Adaptation interventions shoult~ be multi-sectorlll and integrated in thc country's development plans (e,g, PRSP) a> well as budget frameworks, This chapter suggests key elements of the adaptation strategy and provides examples of the current donor-supported initiatives that ~re relevant for adaptation. rt also reviews the role of prevailing govermnent policies in facilitating Or impeding adaptation. 2.2 How should Tajikistan adapt to climate change) given the rnany other pressing development chaUenges that it faces) The chapter argoes that adapt.1tioll planning should start with the so-called "no policies - investment and policy decisions that wiU provide benefits under current clinlate conditions and strengthen resilience to any future changes. 1bere are a number of such options in Tajikistan, particularly in areas like sustainable land management~ l1nprovement of access to water, dL"Vc1optncnt of preventive healthcare, disaster risk management and introduction of effective social assistance progran)s. Thus, the core element"! of an integrated adaptation strategy (Figure 2.1) are in full conformance \"\-1th the country's national goals of economic and social deyelopment. 'lhey also largely reflect the priorities for additional government spending on climate change adaptation as ideorHied by the P-UTS respondents. The narrative below wiLl provide a more detailed description of each of the components of the adaptation strategy as well as examples of pilot initiath-es tll Tajikistan or emerging best-practices that address climate change-related challenges in other countries, Figure 2.1: Basic Elements of an Integrated Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Di~astcr S;~fcry Nt;T:' & Agriculture & l:conomic Preparedness ........ ..­Insurance J{ufallnfrastructurc llinancial Scr/Jcc~ l;-"JH;R\',VD ,\C.'\I' r \'(10, Source: ,\daptcd (rom L Cord, C Hull, C. Hennet, and G. van def \'ink, (2008) citd earilCf, 2, I Strengthening Resilience to Climate Change 2.3 The resilience component of the adaptation strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of households, communities as wen as local and national governments to with~taTld any negative climate impacts, Efforts should focus on 1) econofl11c diversification, 2) preventive health care and 3) agriculture and lural infrastructure In\;estments. 2,4 Economic Diversification: As a le!i"CY of Soviet planning, Tajikistan has a narrow production base with specialization in a few basic cnmmodities: aluminum, cotton and electricity (Pig 2.2,), .Agricultural output is dominated by cotton and low-value food and cereal crops,25 Diversification of agricultural production ;5 \X;orld Bank. 2006. Priolitiesjor j'IIJ'lailJoble Growth: /1 J/mteg;jor Agri,ultuTl' Sedor Det't/{)pmt!!lf i!ll~itlcijttlft 39 Figure 2.2:Tajikistan's (particularly, towards: crops that use less water), development of an agro­ Ex ot1s processing industry and promution of non-farnl eCOnOll1.1c activities can help to better adjust [0 climate variability, cushion against demand fluctuations for cotton in international milrkets and increase the incomes of population, Furthermore, migration can be an important tool for economic diversification and is already widely used as it coping strategy in Tajikistan. Prirn;)ry MurtuntlO' 2.5 Diver.d(itation or /Jgricuitldmi Production & DefJe/optltr1IJt of AgtrJ~prot'essilJe: In 74'}. agriculture, priority Ineasures should include elimination of government control over the cotton sector, improvement of fann productivity and Source: IFC Data ,m: for 2007 1. . : attraction of investment in agroprocessing. Current cotton policies distort the efficient allocation of land) labor and farm inputs and have it negative impact not only or the cofton subsector but also on total agricultural outpuL Production targets, pricing controls and other I:) pes of state intervention in the cotton sector should be removed and farmers should be granted freedom in naking land use decisions and in marketing their produce. 2.6 Cotron will likely remain an important crop for Tajikistan and its cultivation may be viable acd profitable 10 some parts of the country, however it has to be done .in an environmentally sURrninable manner and basco on ma.rket principles (i.e. without coercion of fatnle.ts). The government's role should focus on c~,tablishment of a competitive environment for the private sector, improvement of access to finance, resolution of cotton debts as well as improvenlent of access to information on prices and demand for agricultural products in local and foreign markets. 2.7 Development of horticulture and livestock holds much promise for potential growth and is supported by a number of donor:; and NGOs. There are substantial opportunities for import substitution .in the: domestic food market as well as f;ome possibiliues to expand exports of fresh and processed fruits and vegetables. 2.8 Crop production accounts for 80 percent of the value of agricultural ::lector output and 'Was the main engine of sector growth, which was driven by increased yields and higher prices for non-cotton erops while the value of cotton production was sratic. Lower value food and cereal crops account for most of tills growth (Figure 2.3))6 Figure 2.3: Trends in Gross Agricultural Output - Tajikistan 4,500,:);)0,000 ~ 4,0000)0,000 Ill. 3,JOO,OJO,000 8 3,000,0)0.000 " ~ ?/;OO)),,)O,OOO " • ~ "" 2,000,0)0,000 t 1,500,0)0,000 i" 500,000,00(' • 1.000.0)0.000 '" .... ----,-"'- -----­ .... 19992000 2:;:;1 2(0220032004208) 200t: 2J)07 2008 L1V€stOdt.: Source: World Bank. 2010 Country Economic \kmoram.!um 26 \Vorld Bank. 2006. Priori!ieJ'/6r Sustainable Growth: A S!mt~ry'f(;r /lgdm!ttlf'f! Set/or DftJ{?io/>ment in To/ikJstatJ 40 2.9 The major constraints to development of horticulture are reliance on obsolete seed varieties, technologies and production practices and large post harvest losses. Following independence, extension senrices have largely disappeared. Yields for tree crops have: declined due to older trees (most varieties are decades old) and inadeguate fertilizer use and maintenancc. 27 j\daptation to climate change will require identjfication of local drought-resistant crop varieties as well as development or import of new seeds with proven resilience to negatiye climate impacts. Cooperation with international research organizations, e,g. the Int<.'t'national Center for Agriculmral Research in the Dry .rlreas (ICARDA) can be helpful in this respect. 2.10 Livestock numbers have lncreased over the past decade hut productivity remains low. Policies and programs should aim at increasing fodder production, improving the management of pa::tures, disease prevention nnd improving animal husbandry. 2.11 Prornotion of low-cost, scale neutral improvements in fann rnanagerncnt that could be affordable for smallholders will he important to increase yields and productiviry, J\ number of donors have helped establish Farmer Field Schools or other consultativc senricC$ to improve the fanners' knowledge on modern agricultural practices. These initiatives have generally been very ~ucces~ful 1n promoting sustainable land management and helping improve yields, For farmers that attended Farmer Field Schools supported by lINDI' Communities Program have managed to collect two-three crops per season. I [owever, the sustainability of such projects is often an issue of concern as most fMmers are currently unable to pay for consultative services unless they arc linked to provision of inputs or loans. LTSAID, in the framework of its Productive Agriculture Project, is establishing partnerships with the agro··shops (that sell sceds, fertilizers, insecticides and other inputs), so that the staff of these stores (usually agronomists by training) provides qualitied consultative servlces to their clients. 2.12 Transition from subsistence rarrrung towards a commercially ··oriented production will require better knowledge of modern fanning practices, introduction/improvement of business planning and rnarketing as well as srrengthemng the linkages between farmers and potenti.l buyersiprocessors. Formal or informal fanners> organizations can play an important role in sharing innovations in crop and livestock production. By working together. farmers can increase their bargaining power vis-a-vis local governments and input suppliers; add value to their products) as wdl as reduce transaction costs (e.g. for transportation). Different donors have been providing support to establishment and functJoning of farmer associations. For instance, CNDP has been supportlOg associatIOns of dehkhan farmers by helping them establish and manage i\gro Tool Banks (a collection of agricultural inputs and machinery that could be renred to members for a fee). eSAID has been 'working with \VUAs to help them find for the fresh produce in Dushanbe as well as in Russia and Afghanistan. Overall, however, most farmers associations rClnain weak and will not be viable without external support, Government!i and donors can help :-:trcngth~'11 farmers' organizations by channeling technical a5sistanct' «',g. cxten;;lo-n sen-ices, rnarkcting assistance, etc) through such entities as well as by helping thCl11 with institutional development, 2.13 It is important to create conditions for the growth of don1csttc agro··processing industry, which is currently dominated by small enterprise::; that produce a limited range of products. 'lhe operating period of most ptants does n.ot exceed six tTIonths and even the most active periods, the majority does not work at full capacity.2b 1be ker constraints include inadequate access to finance, obsolete equiprnent, lack of modern packaging, product sorting "nd grnding as well "s inadequate knowledge of standards, along with high 27 \\lorld funk, 2006, PriorltitJjor JUJtainablc Gn)wth: A Jlratcgy for /'lgn'cu!turr Jec/or Development in Ttijiki,ltan 28 Center fot T mining and Consulting 2008. Rtpott OIJ the Survey r:/ Vegetable.), G"'" Froit Prr}(,CSJ"ilf!t Ind/lJ·t1)' ofTqjikistan (R/Ulian) 41 transport costs make most of Tajikistan's agro-procesi:iors uncompetitive in international markets. Addressing these issues and attracting ror will be instrumental for modernization of the industry. 2,14 DilJen!lication out.ride Agriculture, Tajikistan should also pursue diversification away from dim lte-sensitive economic activities and try to attract investrnent in sectors with significant employment pc (cntial. For instance, development of cco·tourism holds a lot of promii:ic. Pamir mountains are among the 1allest in the world yet [hey and the country as a whole remain one of the least known tourist destinations. Underdeveloped hospitality infrastructure, poor hygiene and sanitary standards, lack of wc;,tern airline operators and connections from major international airports as well as inadequate domestic w.nsportation and communication infrastructure are among key constraints to be addressed to devdop the secior. ,Another industry ",ith a good potential for growth is mining, Tajikistan has deposits of silver, gold, zinc, and lead, Attraction of FDI will be vital for development of this sector. 2.15 The growth of existing enterprises and diversification of economic activity will only be poss· bIe if major improvements of the current regulatory regime a8 well as infrastructure arc achlcved, Tajikistan ranks 15Sd~ out of 183 countries on the Doing Business 2010 Report. The country's private sector is dClminated by individual entrepreneurs that account tor 73 percent of all firms. The growth of the nllcro-l::usinesses is precluded by a difficult regulatory environment, which encourages informality and creates disincentives [or private investment. FurthcTil1orc, complex trade procedures cutnpound high transportation Cost~ and reduce competiveness of Tajik producers. Only 3 percent of small and medium enterprises arc engaged to exports,29 Improvement of the business climate will be instrumental for invigorating enterprise activity ar,d attracting PDL 2.16 Jvfigration a,f a Dil)er.rification Strategy. Lvligration wi1l1ikely emerge as a Table 2,1, coping strategy in response to worsening climate conditions (recurrent "ki M acro d ala f or T ,11' stan disasters or loss of Jand productivity). The govern111ent should not create In millions of lJSD 2009 policies that impede migration or make people stay in areas that become Exports 458 unproductive, Migrants that find work in the new places will likely send Impof(s 2387 POI 35 remittances, which can be invested in adaptation. In facr, the volume of C=--:.... Reminances 1622 remittances was 3.5 times larger than the volume of exports in 2009 and Source: (, ,<_ 2010 over tlyC times larger than the volume of exports in 2008 (ic, before the crisis),'" It was also significantly latger than tbe volume of FDL 2.17 Prevcntivc Hea1theare: Climate change has a potential to exacerbate the challenges faced by the hC<1lth sector today, namely control over food and water~borne diseases, parasitic disea;;,cs <1nd malaria. ':X.rater~bornc diseases are already a major cause of chiidre.n l s morbidity and account for 27 percent of an p')s[-neonatal deaths)l The incidence of intestinal parasite infections is also ver~y high. A joint survey cartied out in 2004 by the Ministry of Health, UNICEF and WFP showed that 63 petcent of children had onc or tn.>te types of entetic parasites. \Xbile warm climate increases vulnerabil1ty to different infections, the primay cause of disease in Tajikistan is inadequate access to clean water as well as poor sanitarion and hygiene. Deteriorating health infrastructure, particularly in rural areas further compounds these problems, Strcngthening the health }') IFC 2009. Bu.riJteJ)· EltJJiro11!JJcnt in Tqjikif"tan aJ JlJen by Jmall and A1ediJ(m Ent:!rpnsIJJ· 30 C-,Ht:1g:1raj3h, SIlJba[&h;lll. 2010. Hal'i! It'mittl.l1h·t},1" hew !lr;rledcd ill (·oJlJpdriJ-OII to 1J.,--poIY," hI !lte (('(jllt)!!!;( j+xJ/iO di:1/~sftt o( IrJH' (Lle,H People .\!()\T B1og. \'\"orid Bank http.:.ilblogs,"\\'orldbank.org/pt:oph:tno;.:n:e !han.::Icmittances~ itN)!JIC (Ollllfrit.,. bccn ~ l1cgles: ted ~in-compa rison, tl H:'X porJs ~ li;t the- teo nom}c .po n ~clialo?11e-QJ-l ow-inc 0 C\' 31 UNDP. 2005. ImJifJ1iitJ!, in JJiJ"tainable DtPelvpment: Alil/mitiullJ DC!JI'/()pmfJ1! Goa/J" NeeriL-1sRJ·Jl!Jetl!, Dmhanbe 42 sector's resilience to climate change will involve both improving primalY health care services as well as measures outside the immediate control of the health sector, like improvement of water quality. 2.18 Slrerl,gthening primary health care. Current government health reforms aimed at development of family medicine should be continued with a particular attention to the needs of rural areas. Apart from raising qualifications of medical professionals working in rural areas, rehabilitating the facilities and providing medical equipment, it is also important to integrate corrununity outreach and education activities (particularly on hygiene issues) into primary health care. \Vith donor support, community-based health initiatives have been introduced in pilot locations and could be replicated in other areas (Box 2.1). Box 2.1: Initiatives to Support Family Medicine and Community-Based Health Care USAID: US_-\ID's Healthy Family Project (2002-2007) has supported the establishment of Village Development Committees (YDCs) to address community health issues in 197 villages of Khadon Region. \UCs consist of 7-15 elected mcmhcrs that meet on a monrhly basis to address community health issues. The initiatives included: raising money for a community health clinic, sanitation projects (e.g. moving latrines so they did not contaminate water supplies), promotion of hygiene and measures to eliminate malaria .....--\ccording to rhe project's fmal evaluation, the \UCs indicated that they would continue to function after the end of donor assistance . .--\ current US.--\ID's Project - ZdraIJPlus prO'vidcs support to four Centers of Excellence, i.e. health centers that combine family medicine training and practice, in Dushanbe, Konihodom, Istrafshan, and Penjekent. In addition to patient treatment, the centers have conducted over 150 community education meetings and provided information on hepatitis, typhoid, anemia and immunization to more than 5,500 people during January-June 2009. US_--\ID's work with medical sraff and communities in GB.. .--\O has improved prevention and treatment of children's diseases; nearly 70 percenr of morher" provided oral dehydration sahs and increased fluid inrake for children with diarrhea and mosr children have receiveJ vaccinations against six Jiseases before their fust birthday. Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN): .--\KD:-J has been supporting development of family health care and community outreach, primarily in GB.. .--\O region. AKDN trained about 500 community health promoters (not necessarily medical professionals) to educate communities on prevention and treatment of common infectious diseases and on the importance of immunizations . .:\KD~ has also introduced a Revolving Drug Fund to ensure access ro affordahle quality medicine in G13_-\O region. Patients are required to pay a small percentage towards the costs of dmgs, which helps ensure regular replenishment of dmg supplies and subsidize those unable to pay. To Jate, the Fund rose over US 530, 000 and operates with minimal external support. Source: lJS;\ID.2007. Fillal EvalNati(Jn ~r tJld lIealtflY Fami!y Program; LJS,\JD. 2009. 7.dravPhfJ ll. Six m(Jnth Rp(Jrt, Janlfary-JH!le 2009: \Imat)'. US, \I D. 2009. III partttmhip with Tqjikijlml 1992-2009; .\ga Khan Development Nehvork. 2008. /-{ga Kholl Health Serl'im Brief 2.19 Given the high incidence of intestinal parasite infectious in Tajikistan, annual de-worming programs for school age children are recommended. Several donors and NGOs have incorporated such initiatives in their existing programs. For instance, UNlCEF is supporting the tv1inistry of Health in distributing de-worming tablets in the frame\llork of its 1\[atiorlal ]"/itamin A Supplementation Campa{gn that covers about one million children." 2 The IvIinistry of Health needs to be supported in institutionalization of such programs. 2.20 JrlcreaJing DiJa"ter Pre-baredneJJ q[the Health Jv,rlem. 1he health sector should be prepared to respond to a potential increase in climate shocks, like heat waves, mudflows and floods. Citizens should be informed about the possible negative impact of high temperatures (e.g. dehydration and heat exhaustion, heat stroke or aggravation of cardiovascular diseases), particularly on children, the elderly and those who work outdoors. Both health centers and mass media can playa role in disseminating information on self-care steps to prevent heat-related illnesses. It is also important to ensure that primary health care facilities particularly in remote nlral areas have stockpiles of essential medicines as well as access to transportation to take patients to urban centers in case of emergencies . .12CNICEF. 2009. UI\'[CEF and Minirt')' qf Ilealth launch national vitamin A mpplementation and de-lvorming campaign In TqjikiJtan, Dushanbe http://\HV\y.unicef.org/media/media 49989.html, accesseJ on December 14, 2009 43 2,21 To address the trampottation problem, USAID has supported creation of Emergency Tram,port Funds in rural area> of Ied on December 14, 2009 2.27 ReiJlfoning Alalan·a SumeillaJlt'e J.\1echaJlisJJIJ". \\larmer climate will increase the number of days favorable for reproduction of malaria mosquitoes, thus affecting the country's sensitivity to malaria outbreaks. Therefore, continued public interventions will be necessary to sustain the success of recent years when concerted actions of the government and the donor community have resulted in reduction of malaria cases from almost 30,000 in 1997 to 635 in 2007.311 Vector control programs, training of medical staff in malaria prevention and treatment, and community education campaigns should condnue to prevent any future outbreaks. 2.28 Agriculture and Rural Infrastructure Investments: A vast majority of the population in Tajikistan lives in rural areas and depends on the natural environment for their livelihoods. The decades of soviet rule left a legacy of overspecialization in irrigated cotton production without consideration of costs and environmental impacts of such policies. Following independence, the needs of the rural economy were largely neglected with litde or no investment in equipment, new seed varieties, extension services and maintenance of the irrigation and drainage systems. Soil salinity and water-logging, a consequence of poor irrigation practices, as well as widespread deterioration of pastures due to overgrazing, have emerged as major environmental challenges. In addition, soil erosion and deforestation not only reduce agricultural productivity but also increase the risk of disasters. Population growth presents an additional pressure on the already overstressed natural resources, particularly on arable land, which totals 0.7 million ha or 0.11 ha per capita.:l 9 Climate change will further exacerbate these pressures and weaken the already vulnerable rural economy. To reduce the negative impact of climate change in rural areas, efforts should focus on restoring land productivity, investing in lural infrastructure and ensuring secure property rights to provide incentives to farmers to manage natural resources in a sustainable way. 2.29 ReJton·ng Land ProdUdil)i{)!. Averting land degradation, which has become common due [0 unsustainable land management practices, is essential for raising agricultural productivity and should be an immediate priority. ivlechanisms to reduce land degradation include planting cover crops and mulching (to conserve organic matter and moisture), contour cultivation and strip farming on sloping lands, introduction of crop rotations and application of fertilizers to increase the nutrients level. 'lbese measures help improve soil fertility and yields and can also be an effective adaptation strategy as enhanced soil organic matter facilitates better inftltration and retention of water, thus strengthening resilience to both more intensive rainfall and extended drought periods expected with climate change. 2.30 Lack of incentives and resources available to fanners are among key constraints to adoptjon of sustainable agricultural practices. Por instance, the inducement by local governments TO plant cotton on up to 70 percent of cropped area reduces the ability of farmers to practice restoratjve crop rotations and diversify their incomes, while lack of access to credit prevents them from adequate fertilizer use. 40 Similarly, lack of an effective lnechanism for pasture use control (no national legislation; little planning of resource use; granting of annual as opposed to long-term pasture tenures, which provides few incentives for sustainable pasture use) as well as for forest management has resulted in severe overgrazing of pastures adjacent to villages and in deforestation. Lastly, a number of people with no prior experience in agriculture have engaged in farming after independence due to lack of other employment opportunities. 111ese people are particularly in need of information on modern crop and land management techniques. 1" WHO. 2008. World Malaria R,port 2008 \Vorld Bank. World Development Indi(."(}tor.f. htt:v:!! data.worldbank.orglindicator! J,-G.L~Du·\RBLJ·L\.PC, accessed on 39 March 1, 2010 +0 \Votld Bank.2006. P,ion·tie.l'/or JUJiainable Gtmvth: A Jtrategyjor Agriculture Jector Development iJl Tt!;i"kiJtaJl .(s 2.31 The experience of several donor-supported projects has shown that some of these problems could be effectively addressed at the local1evel, e.g, by involving the communities in management of naru!al resources as well flS by demonstrating practical approaches that not only reduce land degradation bur also create productive assets for rural population (Box 2.2). Reform of national regulations governing natural reSource use will nevertheless be instrumental to allow for scaling up of such activities. Box 2.2: Donor Initiatives on Sustainable Land Management The World Bank's Community Watershed Management Project is implememed in four mountai:l watersheds \vith the objective to build productive assets of rural communities while cunailing degradation of fragle lands and ecm:ystc-ms. To date, the project has supported approximately 42,000 households in 388 ,iUages to 1ncrease their incomes and improve land and pasture management by providing small grants to households and community groups. Funds are allocated acconJing to a predetermined formula for three types of activities: farm productivit;! enhancements, land resource management and rural infrastmcture improvements_ Average community cont1-ihutton has been 30 percem of total project costs. The project has. already contributed to improved enviroruncntal management on over 51\000 ha. L·and management projects are implemented primarily 011 degraded lands that have been previous],: considered unsuitable for agriculture. The examples include terracing (planting of fruit trees perpendicular to slopes to enhance soil conservation), constrnct1on of gabions (smne·6Ued baskets to stabilize soil and prevent erosion), optimization of land usc by planting orchards and perL'1tnial forages or orchards and legumes (wrucb :llso helps to control erosi(.n), as well as establishment of woodlots_ After the lands have been in btOod usc for three years the fanners arc land use certificates, Many of these approaches have been replicated by orher fanners and institutions, benefitting an additional 14,000 homeholds. Pastute improvement activities have also been very populae In particular, the project has provided grants ,1nd technical assistance to rehabilitate pastures through planting of perennial plants (like lucerne or alf~lfa), renovate or construct pasture irrigation systems, build cattle pens and drinking troughs in clistant pastures to reduce grazing pres~urc as well as construct roads and bridges. which has provided access to an adclitionall0,OOO ha ofpastw-e land, The pnject has also organized a number of workshops to raise awareness on sustainable pasture management and livestock bret'cling systems as well as to facilitate the creation of livestock holders association as a mechanis.m to regulate pasture acc(ss and use a1 the local leveL Sourre: Jl!tm'if1vJ with W'orld Bank Jta./T UNDP Project "Demonstrating Local Responses to Combating Land Degradation and Improving Sustainable Land Management in South West Ta'ikistan" has been operating in four jamo"Jts of Khaclon region sirce 2007. The assessment conducted at the beginning of the project slIowed that land productiyity in target jamoats de·:reases by 10 percent annually due to improper agricultural practices and dilapidating irrigation infrastructure. The project has focused on increasing awareness of local &rovcrruncnts and commwlitit::s on rational land and water usc; demonstr; ring practical measureS to reduce soil erosion and desertification; and on cleation of mechanisms for sustainable fOEcst management. For ins lance, Land Dcgrada1ion l:nits were established in cooperation \vitl:! local authorities to educate the public about ways to reduce land degradation and to facilitate joim planning of water, forest and land resources, The project helpcrl rehabilitate land that had been abandoned oue to high water table lev'els and soil salinity. Drought resistant varieties of Russian olive, elm and white poplar were planted to improve soil quality. To enhance ::>ustainability, (he project prmrided technical assistance to help dehkhan farmers establish nurseries in target jamoats, each of which has already produced 5,COO-15,OOO seedlings. These measures were supplemented by support to the local water user associations to improve drainage and irrigation infrastructure. Furthermore, an agreement \\lith farmers to introduce crop rotations was reached. The project also worked v.lith communities to replant forest shelter belts) wl:ich had been destroyed after independence due to the energy crisis. It IS estirnated that soil fertility in adiacent areas ha:; improved by 10~20 percent. These practices have been widely replicated by dehkhan farmers in target communities Significant improvements were also achieved in tugaj forest management. The tugai forests, which are officially considered part of the state reserves, were subject to unauthorized tree cutting due to unclear cliVlsion of responsibilities among multiple government bodies overseeing their use and inability of state agencies to protect the forest:;. The project mobilized the residents living close to tugai forests into the Committee on Joint Forest \fanaf,rement 'Ire Committee signed a five year lease agreement of 126 hectares of forests "\\1.th the Jilikul clistrict hukumat The lease agr{cmcnt allows the Committee members to use the tugai as pasture for cattle (except for goats) and obliges them to ?ay taxes for resource use. This approach has rapidly reduce,d tree eutting, creating the conditions for natural forest regereration. ;Pith U;'\fD P 46 232 Ifff:~f!.!.1illJ1, iff fum;i In/rastrodure. Adequate infrastnJcture is vital for development of the rural economy. Roads and hridges connect remote communities to local and regional markets, facilitate trade and enable farmer:) to access distant pastures thus preventing overgrazing. Similarly, access to reliable energy supplies can help address deforestation problems -and preserve local biodiversity. The experience of several donors working in Tajikistan has demonstrated that community mobiL1?:ation approaches are rather effective in implel11enting smaH~scale infrastructure improvement and rehabilitation programs. Commur:ity contribution usually equals or exceeds 20 percent of total costs in such projects. One of the '\vays to raise funding for smaiJ rural infrastructure projects is through mobilizarion of remittances. UNDP"s Communities Program managed to substantially increase migrant's contributions in the Zeravshan Valley via the 0ifigrant Household Initiative Groups, 'The average: share of migrants' con~ibutions grew from 40 percent in the f1rst year up to 70 percent in the third year of program implementation, while the costs of the projects increased from an average of Sl,OOO to $5,00041 2.33 Adaptation to climate change will inevitably involve using \.vater more efficiently, Current water tariffs for drinking and irrigation purposes are very low and do not cover operation and maintenance COStS, Furthermore, coilection rates are also very low: 25 percent of people connected to plumbing in rural areas do not pay for. water (most claim the service is frcc); of those who pay, only 10 percent have a water meter (both in urban and rural areas).42 Lack of funding has resulted in deterioration of drinking v..-ater supply sy::;tem and inability of the goyemment to provide access to safe drinking water to half of the country's rural population. Similarly, low tariffs, lack of individual meters and inadequate knowledge of farmers of the water requirements of different crops resulr in overconsumption of water for irrigation; dererioration of the irrigation infrastructure (current efficiency is estima£ed at 55 percent) as well as in planting of crops that will not be viable under economically efficient water prices. Such policies increase Tajikistan's ,,"ulnerabiliry to climate change as they leave the country unprepared for the increased scarcity of water. 2.34 The government should support diversification of crops towards the ones that require less water, promote water saving irrigation tcchnologie~ and create incentives for efficient \-vater use (e.g. through introduction of indivjdual meters and inlptoving collection rates for water provision). [t will aiso be important [0 implement Institutional reforms to enSUre that the Irrigation sYStenl, built [Q serve large) state-owned collective fanns, 1S capable of meeting the needs of individual sl11all-hoJdcrs. Decentralized water management arranp!;cmcnrs have been promoted by :;everal donors through support to establishnlent and development of waxer user associations (\v1JAs). To date, these institutions have been quite effective at improving access to water and s~engthening cotnllmnity-level governance. (Box 2.3). This approach to water governance holds much promise and should be considered for scaling nation~wide. 1.33 Community mobilization approaches combined with seed grants can be very effective in making :::mall scale infr:astructurc improvements, however Inany of the infrastructure needs have to be addressed at the natlonallevel (e,g. signitlcant investment is needed in conSU1Jctlon and rehabilitation of roads and highways connecting different regions. in improyement of access [0 modern communication netv.lOrks: and in increasing energy availability). 1.36 ElIJurinf Secure Land OVJlfersbip. Farmers will not have incentives to make investments in soil conservation and water use efficiency if they do not have secure property rights. Even though subsmntial progress has been achieved in restructuring the [onner collective farms ("kolkhozesn and "sovkhozcs';, the privatizarion reform:;; remain incomplete. Fanners are often unaware of their fights [Q create individual debqon -Jj UNDP.2009. tt0lf)P Tqjik!>talJ Ct)mmllnitj~£ Programme Learned:2004-2009 USSOm' 12 The \~;odJ Bank) C1\lCEF & Tajikistan State Stati:::tics Committee. ZOO? Tqjikislan LivirlJ!,. Jtandanlr Sttf'V'!Y (lISS), 47 (peasams) farms, privatization process remains non-transparent and corrupt, and local governments continue to inrerfere in cropping decisions evcn though such practices are not supported by rhe recently enacted legislation. To address the above mentioned problems some donors have piloted legal support cer;ters in nlTal areas that educate farmers about their rights as well as provide legal advice and represent farmers in court. For instance, [he l:SAID-sponsored legal aid centers helped resolve 10,830 land-rel-ated problems, facilitated the creation of 770 dehkan farms and initiated 47 court cases during 1005-2008. 43 The next s :eps in land policy development should focus on simplifying the procedures for land privatization, strengthening the capacity of local governments to implement new regulations -and informing farmers of their encitlt meats. 2.37 GrtJuril1g Jemre LAnd Owner.rhip. [;'armcTs will not have incentives to make investna-nts in soil conservation and water usc efficiency if they do not have secure property rights. Even though substantial pIogre:;:,: has been achieved in resrnlCturmg the former collective farms (,,'kolkhozes); and "Sovk10zeS I ) ; the privatization reforms remain incomplete. Farmers are often unaware of their rights to create indi...-idual de/lqon (peasants) farms, privatization process renlal.nS non-transparent and corrupt, and local governments continue lO interfere in cropping decisions even though such practices are not !.'upported by tbe recently enacted legislation, To address the above mentioned problems some donors have piloted legal support centers in ruta) areas that educate farmers about their rights as well as provide legal advice and represent farm.;rs in court. For instance, the l:SAID-spol1soroo legal aid cenrers helped resolve 10,830 land-related problencs, faCIlitated the creation of 770 dehkan fatms and initiated 47 court cases during 2005-2008 44 The next steps in land policy development should focus on simplifying the procedures for land privatization, strel1phening the capacity of local governments to implement new regulations and informing farmers of their entitlements, Box 23: Water User Associations as a Way to Improve Access to Water 'Inc \'\later U$~r :\;,sociarion Support ProJect funded by IJSJ.ID and impJf'menred by \V1nrock International has been operating in Tajikistan since 2OfJ4. To date, it ha~ supported more tuan 30 \X/lL'.s, consisting of over 1,300 members and benefitting more than 260, 000 people in Tajikistan, The projl;!ct has started \v:ith training the association organixers who then worked with the famlers fO explain the potential bend-its of self~organizing to manage water resource; as welJ as to help form a W1L\ if farmers showed interebt. \11 \'('Cd1.S were established based on hydrologic catchment or watershed 0 boundaries (not according to the bound:ui~s of jamoat or former kolkhoz). \v'hile each WUA devel0pl;!d 115 specific by­ laws, certain principles were universal These included that all farmers were eLigible to join a \VU'_\, pal ticipate in all \'(1.;'1. activities as well as have access to infom1ation on its finances -and that elections of the head of tile -association would be done through secret ballot to avoid elite capture. W1.);\ members were trained in businebs and financial m-anagemenr, irrigation system maintenance and conflict resolution as well as provided \\>1th the grants to support irrigation system rehabiliration projects. On avenge, \\''C"\s contributed 30 percent of the total projecr costs, mostly in the form oflabar. \'V'UAs cbarge a membershiF fee based on the land arca nnder ircig.ttion as well as water use fees ba!>eJ on thc amount of water that is consutned. 1 he fees cover operational expenses and salaries of essential staff like engineer or accountant. \\'1J.-\s have been effective in providing reliable irrigation water supply to fam1ers as well as in collt:cting user fees. At least 90 percent of \VLL\ members pay the fees on rime. The project also helps reduce transaction costs as the associations reach a collective agrecment on watcr use issues with local governments whilst in the absence {If a \X'lL--\ the government would need to enter into individual water user -agreements and collect fees from each farmer. :\ccess ro irrigation services enabled fanners to expand production..--\ccording to assessment of tbe project's irnpact from 2005 to 2006, cotton production tncreased from 1.8 to 2,8 tons per hc<:tarc, wheat ;lnd orchard hlrvests ncarly tripled and vegetable and sttawberry yields doubled. Following production increases, \'\'1Lis were provided with training on food preservation techniques as well as assisted in selling their produce in local and export markets. ...Source-: eS:\ID.2~~. Water Uffl'A';J!)ci(J~?~.I·: E\"Dfrimce with Orgaltizotioll {flit! Cum' lll!p/ttluntatioti Phase,;. O(:~~.~tr 2004 - 11 fqy 2UU6 4; USk1.1D, 2008. USAID Land ~form and Afarkd Deljehpmcn! Prryrtct. J:lnai R£porl, September 2008 44 Ibid 48 2.2 Enhancing Capacities for Risk Management 2.38 The risk management C01llpOnenr of the adaptation strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of households t particulady the poof) to cope \.vith increased risks associated with climate change. This 10dudes development of disaster preparedness programs, safety nets, and improving access to financial services. 2.39 Disaster Preparedness: Climate change is C'Apccted to increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, particularly mudilows, iloods and droughts, posing additional risks to Evehhoods, and inrrasL"UClure. Therefore disaster risk management should be an integral pan of adaptation. Vulnerability to nahlral hazards depends not only on the severity of weather events but also on availability of protective infrastructure and institutional capacity to prevent and respond to disasters. Disaster prevention rAther than a mere response to their OCCU1Tence should become a priority for government and donor support and funding. 2.40 Given the country's. mounrainous topography and the remoteness of many rural comnlllnities, the success of disaster risk management operations depends on improved disastc:r risk awareness and preparedness at the communiry leveL Indeed, the risk of disasters is in many ways shaped at rhe local level (e.g. through inappropriate land use pattems) and when disasters do occur1 the immediate response is proYidcd by communities. The greatest number of Eves is saved during the first few hours after a disaster and before the arrival of outsiders,45 Therefore, local institutions and communities should be engaged in disaster risk management activities. 2,41 The national governlnent aL"o has a role to play by investing in disaster preparedness infrastructure~ improving early warning systems and ensuring rhe availabihty of trained and well eqmpped staff ar the rayon/local leveL It is also important to improve information sharing and cooperation among different state agencies involved in disaster planning and response as well as to carry out a natlonv.ide tJis;\ster risk assessment to identify the most 'Vllinerable localities in the country. Such an assessment could jnform the governmcnes and the donors! disaster prevention work as wen as future infrastructure projects. 1be Government of Tajikistan recognizes [he importance of improved disaster management and has partnered with the donor and NerO community to reduce the risk of disasters. It has recently created the Information and Analytical Center under the Committee of Emergency Situations and Civi.1 Defense to collect and systematize the infonnation on disa:;ters and to monitor disaster-related risks. The Crovernment also adopted a National Di:;aster Risk ivlanagclTICnt Strategy for 2010-2015, which outlines the major directions of planned activities in the arL'-3. of disaster management. Proper coordination among various stakeholders as well as adequate financing 'Will be insL"1lmental for the successful implementation of the strategy. Overall, national and local efforts should focus on disasrcr prevention as well as on capacity building for emergmcy response. 2.42 D/ra.rter Prevention. Disaster risk is influenced not only by climatic events but also hy the war communities, farmers, firms and other local actors. usc land and natm"al resources. For instance, increased crop cultivation on s[eep slope,::, deforestation, and construction of housing in envlronmentally hazardous areas after independence has increased vulnerability to disasters in many rural areas of Tajikistan. Raising community awareness about potentially ha7ardous land management practices as well as providing them \\c1th the knowledge and funding to manage natural resources in a more sustainable fYlannCr can reduce the risk of disasters as well as provide additiona1tncome-gcncrating opportunities. 2.43 Many of the natural hazards (e.g. landslides) are recurrent. Developmg landslide hazard maps at the village and district levd can help identify houses and infrastructure most "\--ulnerable to disasters as well as 45 Cristoph Pusch. 2004. PnJl)f!tddbk hires: st1vittp, JiwJ dnd proper!), throNg/) hdzard rbk tlIClRd.gemrmt. \'Vnrking Paper Series No.9. Hazan:i ~ra(4'1gement Unit. The \'('odd Bank, \v'ashington DC 49 inform future consLr'uctlon projects, Community mobilization approaches whereby conlffiunities are engaged in identification of local disaster risks and provided with grant funding to undertake infrastructure improvement projects have proven to be effective in strengthening resilience to disasters at th.:: local level botb in Tajikistan (Box 2.4) and in other CQunlries where such projects have been inltoduced. 2.44 Eml5!f.,ertqrupon.Je. Increasing the ability of local actors to respond to disasters effective.y and with minimal losses to community assets should be an integra) part of disaster preparedness activi:ies. Efforts should concentrate on development of emergency response strategies~ evacual10n plans, con.;truction of shelters, identification and training of volunteers for the search and rescue brigades, development of early warning systems and organization of public awareness campaigns, \\/omcn should be involved in disaster­ preparedness work as in many disadvantaged locations most young rnen have rnigrated abroad v. hile women are not prepared to protect themselves and their chl1dren. Development of emergency respon)e strategies should be follo\ved by drill;; whh participation of local leaders, ;;chools, medical personnel and comrnunity organizations. PubLic awareness campaigns conducted through the media as well as local institutions like schools or mosques should aim to educate people about natural disaster risks and available protection measures as well as encourage community involvement in disaster mitigation. Box 2.4: Community-Based Initiatives on Disaster Risk Reduction Care International has been implementing a eomtnunity-based project on disaster preparedness since 200:i. The project has contributed to the creation of 64 village eom:rnittees in \~arzob, \Tahdar and Yovon districts of Khatlon rew.on. _\11 community~based organizations have been provided with trainlng un community risk assessment, disaster management, first aid and natural resources managetnenr, 'assisred in the development of risk and evacuation maps and ir organization of community drills. In addition, each community was provided with grants to implement small-scale disaster-mitigation projects (e.g. construction of flood protection walls) .in then villages. FOCUS, an affiliate of the .\ga Khan Development Network, h.as been working in the GI3~-\O rCg10n :.ince 1997, It undertakes ptoje_cts. to strengthen the abilities of local communities and the Government's Committee (If Emergency Situations and Civil Defense CeoES) to cope 'v,rith disasters through initiativ(~s in information management, capacity building and communit:ymbased risk reduction. FOCUS has partnered with 270 corrununities in all districts of GB~~O to build their preparedness and response capacity to natural disas.ters. 'TIle NGO has implemented over 250 community­ ,based hazard, vulnerability and risk assessments, coon::linated the development of village disaster management plans and id~ntificd and eSlablished over 300 safe heavens and evacuation paths. To enable efficu:nt emergency response, over 95 wireless communication dcv--iees were installed linking communities with FOCUS and CoES. FO( US has also conducced disaster awareness and preparedness workshops in villages, schools and hospitals throur'hout GBAO , reaching over IfJO,oOO pl;~ople, Communities have been provided with assistance to undertake small-scale projecrs (e.g. :rivet-bank protection, eonstroction of diversion3.ty channels to mitigate the impact of mudflmvs, road rehabilitation, I SOUf:-C UNISI )R. 2007. Elf/idin..!; Di:;rJslcr R.~.1-;lie!ll C~mmitllilit'J; .\Kl)K 2008. POCIt:' HumfwiklritJh AJJi.rlrnm' Hriq 2.451\ number of donors and l'!'G08 (e.g. Care International, EC, Focus;, Oxfan1, O~fam, UNDP, \VB) have applied community mobilization approache~ in selected disaster-prone loeations of Tajikistan. The experience of two of these projects is summarized in Box 2.4, \"'\'hile significant investments are necessary t·) scale these initiatives to all vulnerable arcas~ the intcrnacional experience shows that disaster risk reduct10n lneasures are cost~cffective in mitigaring the negative impacts of weather extremes, The benefits are calculated not only in money saved but alsu in more secure livelihoods and saved lives. Some examples include: China!') investment of US $3.15 billion on flood control between 1960 and 2000, whieh is estimated to have avered losses of about CSS 12 billion; the Rio de Janeiro flood reconstruction and prevention project in Bra,i1 yielded an internal rate of return exceeding 50 percent; and the disaster mitigation and preparedness ptograr1l5 in "Andhra Pradesh, India yielded a benefit/cost ratio of 13.38,40 ,Hi U~ISDR2008" Climate C/;an.f!f and Disaster Ri.rk &dudlOr;. Briefing l\'ote O1,Gcneva 50 2.46 Financial Seniccs; Reliable access to financial services can help households and small businesses of Tajikistan accumulate assets, diversify livelihoods/production and develop coping mechanisms that will make them less vulnerable to climate variability and extremes. Access to financial services has long been seen as one of the tools to help reduce poverty. Indeed, a saving account can help the rural poor deposit money after a good harves t and withdraw it in times of need, thus smoothing consumption and reducing vulnerability; whHc access to credit Can enable farmers purchase drought~resistant seeds and other inputs or even start a business outside of agriculture. 2.47 Despite the recent growth of the tlnancial sector, access to credit and othtT financial services in Tajikistan 1.5 limited, especially in rural areas. Only 0.4 percent of households have a bank account (0.2 percent in rural areas) and 2.5 percent have llsed any formal institution for borrow.ing (ILSS :2007). L.-\ccess to finance is cited as the top constraint facing a business in the IFC Survey on bUS1neS5 environment (2009). 2.48 The reasons behind low utilization of financial services include 1) lo-...v public confidence in banks, as evidenced by the fact that less than 5 percent of the worker remittances remain in the banking sector as deposits (Ire 2009), 2) limited range of products provided by banks; 3) lack of bank branches in the rural areas (the National Bank m,1intllins tight control on bank branching, which reguires prior NBTs approval of [he branch as \vcll as the branch manager and chief accountant; the process can take months or years, 1'0 banks minimize such reque"s); 4) limited lending to agriculture (except for government directed lending for cotton, which has resulted in accumulation of debts and contributed to higher perceived risks of the agriculture sector) and; 5) weaknesses in skills and [OoIs of bank employees to assess credit risk. 47 2.49 J'vlicrofinance institutions (l\IFls) have grown rapidly in the past few years, yc, their outreach is still limited, \v1th approximately 150,000 bouo"\vers in 2008 who receivcd about $133 million in microcreilil from these org-.mizations.4s lvIore than half of MFIs' lending is focused on non-f-arm activities. 4'J 2.50 A supportive regulator}' environment can turn financial institutions into catalysts of business growth and poverry reductlon; while access to financial services can increase resilience of population to various shocks (including climate extremes). Thc rcfOIro:; should include 1) removing restrictions on opening new branches for banks and MFIs; 2) attraction of FDI into the banking sector and strengthening competition among banks (at present, banks have segmented the tuarket geographically and by sector, so sometimes operate with significant monopoly); 3) simp~fication of a regulatory framework for MFh (e,g. easing [he procedure for getting a foreign currency loan, simp~fying licensing and reporting requirements and a tax regin1e); 4) abolishment of government-directed lending to cotton as it undermines the stability of the whole banking system; 5) capacity building of banks employees to introduce modern credit scoring tools (currently most lending decisions ate based primarily on collateral rather than on the profitability and projected cash flow of the enterprise»!) and 6) assistance to 1\1:1-'I5 and banks tn development of climate-proof products. 2.S1 In many countries, financial institutions, particularly microfinance organizations, havc taken the lead in development of products and services that are specifically aimed at reducing vulnerability of their clients to climate shocks. For example, the Self-Employed Women's Association (SEWA) in India offers housing loans 47 Govcmtnent of 'Tajikistan. 2009, Drqft Tqjikistan hnancial Sector Development Strategy 2009~2013 ~!I IFC. 2009. BUJinClJ Environment in Tty,kistan as Seen by Small and lviedium Enterprises ~C) As of 2007, the composition of disbursed loan::; by sector was: trade 49.2 percent manufacturing 45 percent, services 6.2 percent, livestock 29.9 percent, agrtcultural production 10.1 percent (Source: Tajikistan Financial Sector Development Strategy 2009-2013) 5il Gov-ernrncnt of Tajikistan. 2009. Drq/t Tqjikiftan rinanciaf Jedor Dct'elopment Stmtegy 2009~20 13 51 to replace roofs. reinforce walls or rebuild in less hazard-prone locations,51 As a condition of the housing loan, an [YiFl can suggest that clients use a dc!;'ign that lends itself to easy reconstruction (e,g. the Vicmamese Red Cross helped install nouses designed to be easily restored aiter floods) Many MFis provIde loans ior < installation of wcils or building catchments to collect rainwater. Financial institutions can also p~ay a role in adapting to increased scarcity of water by providing credit for switching to less water-intensive cn'ps.52 with donor assistancc, many developing countries have introduced lnsuram:e products aimed to reduce vulnerability to climate shocks. 2.52 \X/ith the exception of the few small initiati\Tes that provide loans to insulate houscs and thus reduce deforestation, no environmentally-scnsitive financial products are currcntly available in Tajikistan, The dC\Telopment of the insurance n1arket is constrained by thc outdated legislation, low public contillence in the sector and poor understanding of in::uranec products by the general public. 1\1FIs are currentl:- not legally permitted to offer insurance although negotiations with the National Bank are on-going to allow t>.n;Is to do so in partnership with the insurance companies. 2.53 Climate change can have a potentially negative impact 011 the operatlons of tinancial institutions (particularly MFh as they typically deal with more vuhlerable clientele). For instance, increases in disasters and disease outbreaks can have a highly negative impact on the loan repayment rate$ and may remit in a run on deposits~ so apart from facilitating adaptation of their clients, the financial institutions should adapt themseb:es. 1-1ost MFTs in Bangladesh anow their members to reschedule loan installments dur ng times of flood. The recent publication by Gran1een Foundation recon1mends that ~1FIs develop flexible dlsa:::ter plans, introduce/scale voluntary savings schemes, expand their insurance portfolio and partner with the multilateral institutions to devdop concessional funding facilities to reduce the impact of disasters. \1ost of these recollunendations will be relevant for Tajikistan as well, yet at this stage of the sector developm'fcCarter, 2008, Mi{'r~finan({! and dimatc chan,gc adaptatiun. IDS Bulletin. ';1 \Yolume 39, Number 4, September 2008; Institute ofDe~lelopment Studies 52 Dowla, ;-\sif. 2009. Climare (}){Jtlge and Alicrojinancc, Grameen Foundation Publication Series "World !lank 2009. Republic o!TajikiJlan Poverl) AYmy",,"!, Washington DC 52 2.56 Pltb!i" U7ork..f Pmgram.f Employment programs can be effective in providing income generating opportunities to the poor in times when agricultural income is reduced (e.g. due to unfavorable weathtT conditions or disasters). Such programs can also help improve public infrastructure and restore biodiversityJ thus increasing community re~ilience to negative impacts of climate change, Examples of public work programs include road construction and maintenance, building embankments to prevent the overflow of rivers, rehabilitation of irrigation systems, reforestation and soil conservation, In countries, where such programs have been introduce~ they havc also reportedly strengthened the capacity of local institutions to manage development projects and helped many small-scale contractors to grow. 54 2.57 Successful implementation requires effective targeting; administrative capacity at the local level; and investment in projects that will have lasting value for the community. Overall. the lower the wage ratc, the better the self-targeting but also the lower the net benefit per worker. Usually, the wage should be set just below the market wage for unskilled manual labor in the area in which the scheme is introduced (\\!J3, 2003). 2.58 One of the best-known public works programs 18 the iVationai Ruml Emp''!YfJ/Mt Guarantee ~-·-1ct in India, The ,\cr aims at enhancing the livelihood security in rural parts of India by gnaranteeing at least 100 days of wage employment a year to every household whose adult members arc ready to do unskilled manual work, The program has been successful in enhancing agricultural productivity (through water harvesting, erosion control and tnicro-irrigation), increasing access to maJ:kets and services through lural connectivity works~ inclusion of the marginalized groups and women in the workforce and stabilizing how.:chold incomes. 55 2.59 \Xllile Tajikistan may not be able to introduce a similar program on a counb:~~1dc scale, it may be possible to do so in the mos[ vulnerable and/or disaster prone locations. Donors can also consider inco.rporation of the public work programs into their infrastructure development initiatives. For .instance~ the \Vorld Bank is planning to introduce cash-for-work programs for renovation of the irrigation and drainage infrastructure in the ;;'Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and W'ater ?vfanagement" project, which aims to increase household food security in selected districts of Khadon region. The \XlorId Food Progratn provides food assistance to food insecure households In all regions of Tajikistan through its Food/or W-'(Jrk PfI!.gram. The program targets the most vulnerable households based On a set of criteria (e.g. monthly income per household member cannot exceed 95 S01110ru, Ian d plots cannot exceed 0,2 ha, etc) and provides them with food assistance to build or rehabilitate public assets. Infrastructure projects ate :;elcctc-d in partntlshjp with hukumats, jamoats and local NGOs who usually also provide construction materials. In ~009, there were 1650 recipients, who helped construer 13 km of drainage canals, rebuild five bridges, rehabilitate seven schools. rebuild 185 home::> and build or restore ten latrines. Similar activities could potentially be organl7cd on a cash-for-work bask 2.60 C:J§b '[r:;m,:'(ery, Regular cash transfers can play an irnportant role in reducing; the yulnerability of chronic poor who 'Will suffer most from increased climate variability and stresses. Depending on the objectives of the social nssistance program, unconditional or conditional transfers should be introduced. If the goal is to alleviate general poverty, unconditional cash transfers targeted to the poorest will be a good choicc, and if child poverty and building human capital is of the main concern, transfers conditional on parents keep.ing their children at school and/or attending health centers are an effective too1.:>(, Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) were .introduced in many countries and rurned to be largely successful at itl1proving child nutrition, '}.) \Vorld Bank. 2003, ~yjtrJmif.' Shocks and Social Proteai()n: The ROM and EjJetriVfl1flj '!l Public Works P!1J.Jj,ram.r, Social Safety Nets Primer Notes, 2003, ~o 1 55 Ibe ),jational Portal of lndia http: / ;ins sparsely populated high altitude mountair. zones arc the least vulnerable while pml1e agricuitl1rnl valleys are among the more vulnerable areas. This implies that rdative]y vulnerable geographic areas can overlap centers of population and economic activity. Adaptation planners therefore do not necessarily face a trade-off between 57 defending the most vulnerable areas and defending the economically most important areas from the impacts of climate change. 3.6 The rest of the chapter is organized as follows: section 3.1 discusses vulnerability and adapt.ve capacity, section 3.2 introduces the data and methodology used for constructing the index? section 3.3 )resents thc results and section 3.4 offers concluding remarks. 3.1 Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity 3.7 Vulnerability is the risk of experiencing poverty or so:me other deprivation during ~orne brne interval. Estimates of vulnerability to poverty normally focus on the risk of the household MUng below the poverty line as a result of changes in inconlC resulting fronl risky events. An individual or household is "\ ulnerahle to rh:k(s) associated with climate change if thcse rll,'k(s) \vill result in a loss of well-being that pushes the individual or household helow a threshold level of well-being, Vulnerability is a function of the risks, exposure and sensitivity to risks, and adaptive capacity. In this paper exposure is defined as the chance that assets and llvdihood;: \v111 be impacted by climate change risk and sensitivity as the susceptibility of assets and livelihoods exposed to risk. 3.8 Adapti..'-e actions are adjustments in assets, livelihoods, hehaviols, technologies, or policies that address ongoing and future climate changes CIPCC, 2007; Stern, 2006; UNDP, 2007; Smit and Wandel, 20(6). Adaptation confers private benefits - it is in people1s self-interest to adapt in order to safegu:ard lives and livelihoods. Adaptive actions comprise both private, club, and public goods, Heltberg, Siegel, a"d Jorgensen (2009) define adaptil" capacity as the ability to deploy social risk management strategies for reduction of risk and human vulnerability associated with climate change. 3.9 I\daptation matters: when category 3 cyclone Bhola hit was then East Pakistan in 1970, upwards of 500,000 people died. When in 1991 a categoty 4 cyclone hit now independent Bangladesh, mortality w", 138,000. In November 2007, cydone Sidr, also of categoty 4, resulted in only 5-10,000 deaths Bangladesh achieved this remarkable reduction in disaster mortahty through a combination of early warning systems and cyclone shelters, Early \varning systems spanned both high tech information systems and low kch outreach such as volunteers 011 bikes that spread warciog tuessagcs. \Xlbat this example shows is that the .::ffectiveness of societies' adaptive capacity is paramount for how climatc cyents translate into hUlnan at d economic consccluences (Heltbcrg, Siegel,]orgensen, 2009). Another stark example is the impact of earthqcakes in Haiti and Chile, \Vhile more than 200,000 people died in Haiti', 7.0 earthquake in Januaty, 2U1O frum collapsed buildings, an 8.0 earthquake in Chile in Fehruary 2010 resulted in 486 deaths, many from m:nami waves. There is a saying among engineers that buildings, not earthquakes, kill people, Likewise, ad 'ptarion and nlaJadaptation determine vulnerability to dinlate change. 3.10 Even though adaptive capacity has been the suhject of increasing tc~earch in recent years (A.. dger, 2006; Smtt and \Vandel, 2006) litde is known wirh precision about how it varies across countric~., regions of countries~ and sectors and how it can best be strengthened. The drivers of adaptive capacity include physical, financial, human, and social capital assets. Adaptive capacity is unequally distributed: it varies systcmatkally along existing fault lines for inequality and social exclusion such as gender) ethllicity, and socioMeconomic status (e.g., Ribot, 2010). Therefore, the poor are not only the most exposed to the impacts of cli!nate change, they are also the least equipped to adapt to it. The constraints to adaptation can be financial but often are rooted in belief sysrems and social structures (Adger et aI, 20(9), For example, a11 cultures have different traditions for how, and what sources of clim.ate knowledge, they use··-traditions that ate vitally Importanr for how weather forecasts are used or whether carly disaster warnings arc needed. The roots of tnaladaptation can thus be cognitive just as much as they can be rooted in financial cOl1srrainh. or flawed 58 engineering. However, much rematns to be learned about ho"\v these insights might translate into better adaptation interventions on the ground in different contexts. 3.2 Data and methodology 3.11 This section describes how [he concepts of exposure, .sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability were translated infO numerical indices; what variables were used; how variables were aggregated into sub­ indices and sub-indices into a composite vulnerability index; and how sub-national geographical areas were determined. 3.12 Conceptual approach: The measure of vulnerability to climate change relics on the IPCC working definltion of vulnerability as a function of exposure) sensitivity, and adapttve capacity (IPCC, 2001) and 1ncorporates social, economic, and natural science indicators. A number of other contributions have done the same (e.g., Polsky et aI., 2007; World Bank, 2008). The index of vulnerability is constJ:1Jcred as the simple average of three sub-indices: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. In line with previous literature, a range of climatic, economic, :,.;ocia], and institutional variables are included as the driycrs of '\'1dnerability and the focus is on vulnerability to current climate variability. One advantage of this approach .i:;: the reduction in dependence on climate models and projections which despite recent auvances are still presented at too coarse a scale with too high degrees of uncertainty to be useful for regional analysis (Hahn, Rieuerer and Poster 2009;. 3,13 TIus report improves upon the approaches used by previous shldies by covering aU areas of the country, both filral and urban, and by carefully exploiting a host of available survey, census, and meteorological data. The indicators of past climate variability are used to assess exposure to natural disasters and climate variability; social, economic, and institutional characteristics of households and regions that affect their adaptive capacity; and health, livelihood. food security, and demographic characteristics that determine $ensitivity to climate change impacts. 3.14 From concept to choice of variables~ -<-\ number of judgrnents have to be made when translating the concepts lrtto estimates of vulnerability at the sub~nationalleve!; this is particularly So for adaptive capacity. For example, does migration and urbanization reduce or increase vulnerability? Vincent (2004) interprets growing urbanizatim: as a sign of weak rural resilience and therefore high vulnerability. However\ in the Ta;ik context, migration is accompflflied by tt:mittances vital to the livelihoods of the household members left behind. ;\t least to the migrant households. remittances help reduce vulnerability. The report therefore treats rcnunanccs inconlC a:-; one of the independent sources of income whicb increases di,-crsificatlon of income sources and rhereby impro,,"e$ adaptive capacity, A variable measuring the extent of diversification of non­ agricultural income ;iources at the household level i:> consttucted. which is a brood indicator of how well c01TImunities have already adapted: wcll~ diversified conununities (induding those with remittance inc01nes from migrants) are displaying adaptive behaviors and might be expected to continue to do so in the future. 3.15 A well-educatt'd population with reasonable and diversified income sources and developed institutional strucmres is better able (() manage risks and prevent biophysical irnpacts from rranslating into human itnpact$, Therefore the adaptive capaciry ~ub-index also indudes average per capita household consunlption and the share of population with education above secondary.5H Institutional strength and stability are also 5& _\ccess (0 infor.mation and communications infrastructure is also arguably important in influencing vt:lnerability (Blake et aI, 1994). In the past, authors have used telephone access measures as pmxics for information sharin& early warning, and general connectivity. IIowevcr, now that most households have cell phones, the value of telephone access as a proxy variable has arguably dinunished. This leaves us with no usable data source on access to infonnauon. 59 important for determining the coping range of a population. Governance and political stability are important criteria here but unfortunately, no direct indicRtor is available at the sub-national leveL However. three good proxies for institutional strength are available in the data and all contribute to adaptive capacity: • Social capital and trust is Ineasured in the form of genetali2ed trust, The question <1Generally speaking~ would you say that nl0st people can be trusted, or that you can't be too careful in dealing with people?!! has been used in many settings to assess general interpersonal trust as a dimension of social capitaL It is available for Tajikistan nom the Life in Transition (11TS) surveY" The proportion of households that state they have some or conlplete trust in other people is used for the analysis. • Quality of public services !'iuch as police, courts, education, health, and social assistance contribute toward adaptive capacity. Ilreas with good services will find it easier to respond to climate risks and to craft the public-private collaboration required to prepare for climate change, This variable is meaSllrecl using LiTS data on the average nUJnber of public services (out of 8 max) for which households declare 1 hat they are either satisfied or very satisfied. If ail bouseho~ds in a region were satisfied wilh the quality 0 - all 8 public service areas~ the value becomes 8. If no household is satisfied with any of the services) the value becomes zero, • Corruption in daily interactions measures a key hindrance for adaptive capacity and, vice vcrsa, absence of corruption makes adaptation easier and proxies in;;:titutional strength. ~te measure corrnption using L1T5 data on the average number of public services (out of 8 nux) for \vhich households declare that they never or seldom find it necessary to pay bribes in order to obtain the service in question (the services are the same as above, namely police, courts, education, health, and social assistance :;ervices). 3,16 Constructing indices of exposure and sensitivity to the impacts of climate change proved relatively more straightforward. The exposure index is constructed from variables tneasuring temperature and ')recipitation variability and naturnl disaster frequency and the the sensitivity index from varjables measuring agricultural. demographic, healrh, poverty, and disaster~related scnsrtrvity to climate vartability" This is descnbed in greater detail below" 3.17 Variables in the index: The exposure .fuk-index is comprised of the follo\\>1ng six variablts measuring exposure to variability and extreme values of temperature and precipitation as well as to natural wsasters: • Standard deviation of the average monthly temperature 1950-90 (see formula below for how it was formed) • The range bctv.Tcn maximum and m.inimutn average tnonthly temperature • The frequency of extremeiy hot or cold months, defined as the frequency of months in which the average temperature exceeded 30 C or fell helow - 1() C • The frequency of extremely dry months in the spring (less than 5 ml total precipitation per month) and summer (0 m1 total precipita lion per month) • The standard deviation of monthly total precipitation • The frequency of weather related disasters between 1998-2009" 3.18 Thc .fcmitivitv Sltb-intitx is comprised of five variables measuring agricultural, demographic, health, poverty, and disaster-related sensitiyity to climate change and variability: • SensItivity of agriculture to irnpacts of climate change and variability is n1easured as the average of three variables: area of irrigated land per capita, the degree of diversirtcation of crop land-use me2Surcd by ,he Herfindahl index, and the share of households whose m.ain lncome source is agriculture, • Demographic sensitivity 1S measured by the share of the population below 5 and above 65 years of age. 60 • Sensitivity ~o adverse impacts on health is measured by the average of two var.iables~ the under--five mortality tate and the ghare of households relying on an unprotected water source. • Sensitivity to poverty and hunger is measured by the share of households that report food insecurity (the consumption-based measure of poverty is avoided because.it coaelates closely with rncorne which is used in the adaptive capacity sub-index). • Finally, sensitivity to the impacts of natural climatic disasters (as opposed to exposure to them) is measured by the mortal.ity rate from natural 'Clirnatic disasters and the estimated per capita economic costs of these disasters. 3.19 '1 'he ada.vlwf capaa!J; Jub*indrx is comprised of four variables measuring consumption, education, income diV(.'rsiftcation~ and institutional development: • Household consumption per 'Capita • Share of population With higher education (above secondary) • The IIerfindahl index of inrome divetsification (higher valuc, more diversiHcation) • In:,:titutional developnlcnt and sodal capital is measuted by the averagc of three variables: trust (share of households with general trust in other people); absence of corruption (share of households that never or only rardy have to pay bribes); and political involvement (share of hO~lseholds that participated in ptesidential elections). 3.20 Index medlOdology: Various methods exist for aggregating variables Into sub-indices and sub-indices into composite indices. Simple averages assume aU variables carry «lual weight. Wt->:ighted averages can be used to depart from the assumption of cqual \veights but introduce the need fot 'expert judgmcnt' to detenninc the \veights, thereby introducing another element of arbittary choice. Regression-based weights are onl)' feasible when an objective measure of me outcome (in this case vulnerabillty) exi~ts; tbis is obviously not the ca~e here since then there wouldn't be the need to compule the index. Eakin and Bojorquez-Tapia (2008) note that equal weighting makes an implicit judgment about the degree of jnt1uencc of each indicator and propose a complex fuzzy logic-based weighting method as a more objective approach. 3,21 In the report, simple unweighted averages are used as the simplest and least arbitrary method available. Simple unwcighted a\'erages of normalized variables afe used to form sub-indices and simple avent1?;Cs of sub­ indices [Q form the overaH yulncrability index. Only variables that each represent distlnct aspects of vulnerability arc included, which avoids ha"rlng the implicitly unequa1 weights that would result -if two or more sinlilar variables were included. Variables are defined in the most intuitive manner so that for the exposure and sensitiviry sub-indices, the highest value always cortesponds to the greatest vulnerability while for adaptive capacil)', the highest value corrc;;ponds to the lowest vulnerability. AU variables are normalized by a linear transformation imo the 0-1 imetval. In particular, variable x is transfot1ned to x\ where x' = (x min x)/ (max x -min x) where minimum and maximum 1S taken over the value of x across the regions, Therefore vulnerability is calculated as: Vulnerability 1/3(Exposurc + Sens1tivity + (1-Adaptive Capacity)). Annex G provides more details on fonnulas and variables u:::ed in this chapter. 3.22 Agro-ecological zones used in the analysis: Tajikistan is characterized by highly variable geography, terrain, ethnic composition, and socio-economic status. Parts of the country arc remote and sparsely populated highlands; other parts are tertile valleys of good agricultural potential. Some parts still feel the effect of the ci"il war in the 19905. Wnen exploring regional variability of Tajikistan in respect ro climate change, selection of the level of analysis is dictated by a trade-off between overlooking important local difference and data availability constralnts. The results arC presented at tulO levels of geographic aggregation, namely (a) for 10 agro-ecological zones and one co!nposite urban area; and (b) for the rural areas of the oblasts, the four major administrative diVisions of the country. 61 3.23 For tbe agro~ecological zone analysis, Tajikistan can be divided into \0 geograpbical zones. 1 he basis for this 15 a map of 14 agro~ecological zones defined by the W'FP in a study on food security (\vTP 2007). The WFP's 14 zones were jdentified on the basls of homogeneous land cover and land usc anJ based on consultation with local experts. In this report, the WFP Inap is modified by merging some of the agro­ ecological zones so that they are continuous and homogeneous in altitude and terrain -and so that sufficient data points are available for each zone. The analysis is limited ro rural areas within these zoneL figure 3.1 ;;hOW5 the rCHllting zones which arc further described in Annex 7. Figure 3.1: The 10 agro-ecological Zones with oblast capitals ~·,·1 8) ,; ;"~;~: ~:C,'I:';,:;~'?';;'.~'; .' o· PP" rl' '.' • r, •• . .' at a 1(' d;'.'.'.\ • ;~', " j (J'.;~" Source! \\-'orld Bank staff cstimates ba5cd on \VFP, 2007 3.24 The chapter al~o attempts to estimate urban vulnerability. The processes that drive vulnerability are often different in urban and rural areas, and adaptive responses atc organized in distinct ways. Stili? comparing urhan and rural yulnerability 1:; interesting and most: of the data sources used in the analysis presented above are in fact available for the country's major urban areas) namely Dushanbe :the capital), Khujand, Istaravshan~ Kurganteppa~ Kulyab l and Horog, Because of few ohservations in th: household sunrcys for individual urban areas we group aU urban areas into one Orban "Ilulnerability is est mated using the same methods and data as for rural areas With the exception that for urban areas the agricultural variables are not included in the calculation of the sensitivity Index.'i') 3.3 Results 3.25 The results show that 'vulnerability varies according to socio··economic and lnsdtutional deyc10pment in ways that do not tallow directly frot'll exposure~ geographYI or elevation, Urban areas arc by far the least vulnerable while the eastern RRS mountain zone is the most vulnerable and the remote GBAO mountains rank in tbe middle. The narrative below first presents results for rural agro-ecological zones, then for the urban areas, and fwally for oblasts. 59I\'feasures of crop diversiftcation and irrigation per capita arc only meaningful in the rural context. In the report,. these variables arc used to compare the rural areas within tbemsclvt'!s) but (bey are not deemed in the absence of .tgriculrural land. Kot using these values in calculating the index value for urban areas is algcbraically equivalent to USll.S tbe country average values of these variables. 62 3.26 Results for agro~ecolagical zones: '111e results show substantial and sometimes surprising variation in vulnembility and its components. Overall vulnerability varies much less than the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptiyc capacity 5ub~indices. The sub-indices tend to cancel each other ouL For exalnplc, while the rem.ote GR\O highlands experience the highest exposure, it also benefits from the highest adaptive capacity of any area combined \\1.th medium sensittvity. Overail~ GBAO therefore has medium vuinerabiliry according to these estimates, This shows that a full understanding of the dererrninants of vulnerability alters the results from what analysis of exposure to the impacts of climate change alone would have led to; such analysis would have placed GR~() in the top as the most exposed region, 3.27 The most vulnerable areas are the eastern RRS (Region of Republican Subordination) mountains, Southern Sughd hills, and IChatlon hills and lowlands (Figure 3,2 and Figure 3,3,), 'illese are areas of varying elevation and population density. Ibe combined population of the three most vulnerable ZOlles exceeds 500,000 (9 percent of the total) while that of the four most vulnerable zones-that is, including Khadon lowlands' population of more than 1 million-exceeds 1,6 million (27 percent of the country's total), Although the zones are vulnerable for somewhat different reasons, they share a high degree of sensitivity to climate change, particu1ar food insecurity, disaster sensitivity, and reliance on agriculture. Ibey also have weak adaptive capacity, in part stenuning from low income and education levels. Their exposure is only moderate but their high sensitivity and fairly moderate adaptive capaCIty render these areas vulnerable to dima tc change, Again, a full understanding of vulnerability leads to results that differ from what a focus on exposure would have indicated, Figure 3.2: Vulnerability map for Tajilcistan (10 agro-ecological zones) Vulnerability index Source: \X1orld Bank staff estimates based on various data sources 3.28 Lrban areas as a composite group have the lowest vulnerability, far lower than any of the rural zones. 'Ibis is because urban areas have the lowest sensitivity, the second-highest adaptive capaciry~ and a.verage exposure. In other words~ the comparatively better sodo~econornic and institutional deveiopIIlcnt renders urban areas less vllinerable. Compared to urban areas, all the rural zones, covering around 73 percent of the population, appear vulnerable, 63 Figure 3.3: Components of the vulnerability index 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0,80 0.60 0.40 Exposure 0,20 0,00 • Sensitivity • I-Adaptation L _______ Source: \'Vorld Bank staff esrimates based on vanous data sources 3.29 Exposure to climate change and variability is highest in GBAO, as mentioned, as well ,.s the South Khatlon lowlands because of their high frequency of extreme temperatures and broad range of illtra-monthly tC111perarure fluctuations. GBAO is also characterized by frequent natural disasters, Overall exposure levels arc fairly uniform in the rest of the country according to these estimates (Figure 3.4). "'-~~··--·~3·".5·~··~ ___ ~. _______ ~~3~~~-"-1l1l!~.~-average levels of income and education Figure 3.6: Adaptive capacity 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 • Institutions 0.5 o Income diversification • Education • Consumption Source: \'X/ocld Bank sEaff estimates based on variolls data sources 3.32 Results at the oblast level: The chapter also estimates the vulnerability index at a higher level of aggregation, that of the four administrative ohlasts that make up Tajikistan (Sughd. Khatlon, RRS, GBAO). Trus is done for rnral areas only. GBAO obhst comes out as [he least 'vulnerable among the four oblasts, and RRS oblost as the most vulnerable (figure 3.7). Again, GBAO's estimated low vulnerability to climate change is despite high sensitivity levels for almost all the mL(1sured variables (agriculture, disasters, health) which is compensated for by moderate exposure and high adaptive capacity due to income diversification from 65 migrant remittances and high level of education among the population. In contrast, the n10st vulnerable RRS oblast shows high values of exposure (e,g, extremely low precipitation and temperature variatk n); medium senSItivity; and the lowest adaptive capacity, partly stemming from low income diverS1fication (Figure 3.8). Figure 3.7: Vulnerability map for Tajikistan (oblast level) Vulnerability Index 0.35 Source: World Bank staff eSr1matC's based on various data sources Figure 3.8: Components of the vulnerability index (oblast level) 2.00 1.80 1.60 lAO 1.20 Exposure 1.00 0,80 • Sensitivity 0,60 • I-Adaptive capacity 0,40 0,20 0,00 GBAO Khatlon Sughd RRS ---- ---- ---- Source: \Vorld Bank staff esrirnates based on various data sources 3.4 Concluding remarks 3.33 In this chapter. an index of vulnerability to climate change and variability in Tajikistan wa" constructed and presented, The results show that ,,-ulncrability varies according to socio-economic and institutional development in ways that do not follow directly from exposure or elevation: in climate change, geography is not destiny. The results indica te that urhan areas are by far the leas t vulnernhle while RRS obhlst in particular its eastern mountainous areas, is the most vulnerable and tbe remote GBAO mountains rank in tl1e middle. 66 3,34 Some of Tajikistan's sparsely populated high altitude mountaln zones are the least vulnerable while the populated South Khatlon valley is among the four most vulnerable areas. This implie, that relativelv vulnerable geographic areas can overlap centers of population and economic activity. Adaptation planners therefore do not necessarily face a trade-off between defending the most vulnerable areas and defending the economically most important arcas from the impacts of clin1ate change. 3.35111e results indicate that to the extent tbn policy makers wish to direct funding toward areaS with the highest vulnerability to climate change, they should avoid urban areas in favor of lural areas, in particular eastern RR..'-; mountains> Southern Sughd hills, and K.h:atlon hills and lowlands, These are areas of varying elevation which s:hare a high degree of sensitivity to climate chauge and weak adaptive Gtpacity. These results do not tell policy makers. how to design adaptation. The results do suggest, though, that migration to urban arpas and abroad for work might usefully form part of overall adaptation strategies. 67 Annex 1: Pilot Program of Climate Resilience in Tajikistan Through financial support from a number of donors, rhe World Bank, Asian Developmem Bank, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have launched a Pilot Program on Clima!e Resilience (PPCR) to help the world's most vulnerable countries (Tajikistan being DOE of them) in integ.r2ting climate risk into development planning and to support pilot adaptation initiatives. The Program '"ill provide Tajikistan with CSD 50 million in grant financing to strengthen institutional capacities for clirmte resilience and to fund investment projects. The PI'CR in Tajikistan comprises two ph»es. In Phase 1, ,;ix technical assistance activities are currendy being funded to strengthen Tajikistan's capacity and analytical e'0idencc base and help define an investment plan. Phase 2 is concerned with unplcmenting the investment pIan. PPCR~s six areas of intervention in Tajikistan are: • Building Capacity for Climate Resilience aimed at building stronger institutional (apacity and awareness of clirnnte change amongst a variety of stakeholders groups, including civil society, the media and highly v"'ulnerablc groups such as women and children. This component also includes the estahlishment of a PPCR Secretariat and coordination mechanisms to ensure effective implementation of PPCR activities and maximize their development impact: • Improvement of Weather, Climate and Hydrological Service Delivety aimed at inproving the national hydro-meteorological monitoring system to provjde titnely warnings on dange::ous events, support water management, and build the evidentiary basis for climate variability and change. It includes a major technical re-equipment of the observation networks and strengthening of the infonn:ltion base of the service. Service delivery will be improved through expanded provision of hydrornet senke products to consumers, and bolstering the national forecasting, warning~ and response system. Institutional strengthening of the hydromet services, to improve its personnel and financial sustainabili T is another major component. • Climate Science and ModeUing Program aimed at enhanclng Tajikist:1n's capacity [0 cor duct climate science and glaciology research, develop climate change models and interpret the outpUt~ from those models to provide policy makers and sector specialists with the data they need to plan for climate change. This component includes also ··training of local experts to en::;ure the sustainability of trus work beyond the PPCR; and coordination and dissemination of information; • Enhancing the Climate Resilience of the Energy Sector aimed at piloting the integration of climate change analysis and climate resilience rneasures into the planning and implementation of hydropower investments using the rehabilitation of Kairakkuill hydropower plant (I fPP) as a pilot. Thi" activjty wHl also help to build the capacity of the T ajik authorities to conduct climate change analysis as part of invcstrnent planning in the hydropower sector; • Agriculture and Sustainable Land Management aimed at replicating and scaling up e[fe( tive, existing land management practices to ensure that climate resilience becomes an integral part ofland management and agricultural production. The exact detail of initiatives will be deterrruned through a .:ountry-wide analysis and consultation process, funded through PPCR Phase I; • Building Climate Resilience in the Pyanj River Basin aimed ar increasing climate resilience in critical ecosystems, communities and infrastructure that are based in major glacier-dependent river basins and containing a large proportion of agricultural land! such as the Pyanj River basin. Ivfeasurcs rumed at integrating sector-based climatC'-proofing measures in vulnerable eco··systems and critical jnfrastructure will be piloted in the Khatlon target area and Pyanj tributaries. 68 Annex 2: P-LITS Climate Change Module llilil'P(i;iinfNT Tl>E PERSCN SiUClfC ATl'HE 0 Section 5 Climate Change ,;.;:nON ~ NO &ussn~Jn:Jh$ Ant l'OQ:Slllii READ cur CROSS AI L T -jAr APPLIES • Ctf~"' "".ifiioo "d dc',,,",.,,,, , . ­ ~- I ­ , b T~~?,ea(jofaI'LrrectOJSdiSea~a, : c­ Intemato..al tef"l'lrlsm d :Climate change , , ,Arflllj()( ;):tobal ecooo1lic dow!'!tlfl' Tile ptolii:!ra-fion'oi ~ucl&i'lf \\#,...¢;X>fI$ _____ M ' -.... -~~- ... i~: , Arne£! codds --:-te :ncreas:ri9 word populaooll Mii'~ I h MAAK MTHACAOSS THE MuST j\iPORTI>,\/T 0 ... (5.02) ,o¥.d POW5eHnJ~il proolcm do)UI.I t;r;!\ climate c~a'lge IS alllle ff'3Weof? P'eMe vsc a sciil'e from 11::l:0 "1 'would Irean ltJal iUs lOla oeriOU5 p~obler1 alai!, ilIDC '1J" would mean !hal itis Ilxlremely serious SHOWCAADWITrl SCAlE - CIRCLE ON"YON[ NUMBER OK (SXr31 ~aliy, de jCll think 1t1al fJJ a"e well (rilrrred or ~ol atKlul. ,? , SrlOWCA;<:cWTH$CALE _:: RCLEONEANS'AfR?€RU;'£ 1 1 1 ! REA!)OOr _ROTAT'=' " ai , q '$ fc' 1 '" , The dTfferen1 CGlIStlS oj cli'Ylale chi,;,'ge-' . .l , ~o , ~ 1 !II , ~ ~ , , , 5 b , ~he differenlcc.('seqJei'lces olclimate charge Ways r which we ;i!\n sIoW',jlJW(j c~'mate change , I 1 , , IT RF.ADOUT ·ONEmS"INERPOSSIBLE » (5 \)B) » (SDH} , i5.08;) T hYlllSconsenSJS aroog Ire:;c iwbnc cO!11rn~nitrlhatdJrla!f}change ca~ ~a~ serious pomnba11y nega~~ i-npacls 00 ttle Ires of people 'r'trch of tie tlilowtng pote~ta' 'f''Ip&:1s cr climate '<131gl') WCU!C be 0' rroSlGOn~Er~ 10 ~\J? c CRI"SS AlL i HA' ppolJES ..,. , Increase ir ~atural dlSasefS (e 9 ioorls firfls. mudsli:l!!s, et) " , b UIif!(M!C;.;t:)'e and extre.T19 wealher~a:cOfl harm ayr:c:JI~:"ll ptoolJcton i , , De!;lhs in'flBs/' water 3I1ailabili';tbrdrinki;;ii' I d Oech'lC in freshwater ir.'ililabll!tybr 1fflgalion I , Extfflme'':;Old ard hoi seasons Ihatcan be'~a'l'!1!u! rot heaIW : , ,Other (specit.fi I 9 INa pote~tiai irNi.il~15 ~ ohr'i concern I h 10K I ifoNGE !SAGlQB~ PROOlEM REQUIR1"lG K;TIONONAL~ OUR P!f{TS, \\tIllEOfH::RS FEEL T>iIS,sA PR:)5LEM CAUSE) M~NL'feYRCHER COUN"! RES, HENCE THEY$HOUlJ BSTrlEONES ':"0 IPKE ST~PS 1OCOMBAl IT 5,13) JC j::Ii!fi3te chtl1ge',' --;c=---..-- ~____...~~OWCAAD~ON::msWE=R___. ,No, clim&1&c~,ang€ is f\ota~ mportantproblem i'l o·ur cOJnlry 1 tN~19C~~·1J1;l wi" 0\;$1 ta resources 'rom olherih~e Iffiportant.~tnrs -.... ~~-~- ···~~·~·~-2 -.. j ~mentsofriCh couniies sho.~1tti take measurw ro iigr!climate chlllliW '------- .... ----T No, not ul11essct!'\e( cc!)nfJles also take such !\W.3sur$S , 4 5.14) Do jeU gel wast'ler foree!l'lts ahoJi Ljx:omir,g e:50% 0iiotom, iefrom agricuJlurr), UMS i4 - J"bare l)/popu£;llolI under 5, CENS1S J, - Jhare ofpopuialiO!l abolJ< 65, CENJUJ .ft - under 5 mortali!y rate, Tajikil1an Slatiy/iea!Agen:J', J; - .fhar, ofpopulation wilh unproletled 11-'<;/er ioum, rSilH ." Jhaff! ofpO/,ulalion thai iJ jood iom'll", LfMJ JJ - per tapila CtlJuaJliesfrotJl diJasters, 1998-2009 MOE data Jif) - per "'pila damag' from di.u.,lm, 1998-2009 MOE data alll)udables S;, .• .fiO arc normalized f?J linear tra1'1.iformatit;n. Exprwm:: E ((sdT/ + ... + srff;;)! 12 - r,-dP, ;. .. ,-dT',l)! 12 + (ff; - .. rT,2)/12 ;. (!\Thol + N{y/d)/2 T Ndry +­ lVdt:ra.rlcrj! 6, lJJhere, JdT~' - standard deIJiatioli qf tjp'erage temperature iff mONtb i , JdPj - ikmdard de!'iatio!1 if totalpm-ipitatic}fl in mantf) i, rTr - ran,-~e between tJlrL'Shukrinav--Giss.ar 392,001 5: \X'est RRS hils, Rudak.i-\~akhdat 420,660 6: South Khatlon lowlands 1,08G,409 7: Southeast Khatlon hills 536,901 8:::-;E Khatlon bills 148,201 9: East IUtS mountains 116,528 10: GBAD 152,041 .\ll rural 4,477~.162 L:rban Population 1,620,981 Total population 6,098,443 77 BIBLIOGRAPHY AJ, McMichael, D,H. Campbell-Lendrum, c.r. 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