99279 v4 Final Report 1 Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 1 Contents 1. Executive summary ......................................................................................................................... 10 1.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 10 1.2. Activity 1 : Evaluation of the vulnerability of road sections.................................................... 14 1.2.1. The applied methodology.............................................................................................................. 14 1.2.2. Step 1 : Inventory of the basic data available ............................................................................... 14 1.2.3. Step 2 : Evaluation of the hazard of climate change ..................................................................... 16 1.2.4. Step 3 : Diagnosis of the current configuration of the 4 road sections.......................................... 18 1.2.5. Step 4 : Evaluation of the possible impacts of the climate change. .............................................. 22 1.2.6. Definition of the vulnerability of the road sections ....................................................................... 23 1.2.7. Limits of the study – activity 1....................................................................................................... 27 1.3. Activity 2 : Recommendations to adapt the infrastructures ................................................... 28 1.3.1. Recommendations concerning the evaluation and the taking into account ................................. 30 1.3.2. Technical recommendations concerning the hydrologic and hydraulic risks................................. 33 1.3.3. Technical recommendations regarding the geotechnical and pavement risks.............................. 40 1.3.4. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 41 Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 2 Abbreviations and acronyms th 10 p : 10th percentile th th 90 p : 90 percentile a, b: Montana’s parameters AAC : Agriculture and Agribusiness Canada AHA : Agency of Hydraulic Activity ACB : Analysis Cost Profit ADM : Autoroutes du Maroc (Morocco’s Motorways) BLU : bande latérale unique (unique lateral band) BM : Banque Mondiale (World Bank) BMS : bulletins météorologiques spéciaux (special weather forecasts) BVR : Bulletins de Viabilité Routière (report on road viability) CC : Changement Climatique (climate change) CDF-T : Cumulative Density Function - Transformation CETE : Centres d’Etudes Techniques de l’Equipement, France ( centers of technical studies of the equipment) CIP : Climate Information Portal CMIP : Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CNP : Centre National des Prévisions (national center of forecasts) CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Initiative Cv : Coefficient de variation (S/M) (rating change) CW : Climate Wizard ΔF: variation du facteur de sécurité (change of the security factor) DCE : Dossier de Consultation d’Entreprises (dossier of companies consultation) DGH : Direction Générale de l’Hydraulique (General Direction of the Hydraulic) DHS : DirHamS marocains (Moroccan DirHamS) DMN : Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (Direction of the National Meteorology) DPETL : Direction Provinciale de l’Equipement, du Transport et de la Logistique (Provincial Direction of the Equipment, Transport and Logistic) DPH : Domaine Public Hydraulique (public sector of the hydraulic) DPV : Direction de la Production Végétale (Direction of the Vegetable Production) DR : Direction des Routes (Direction of the Roads) Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 3 DR : Précipitation journalière moyenne annuelle (daily rainfall) DRETL : Direction Régionale de l’Equipement, du Transport et de la Logistique (Regional Direction of the Equipement, Transport and Logistics) DRPE : Direction de la Recherche et de la Planification de l’Eau (Direction of the Research and the water planning) EHTP : Ecole Hassania des Travaux Publics (Hassania’s school of the public works) F : Facteur de sécurité (security factor) F : Fréquence au non dépassement [(rang-0.5)/n], dite de Hazen (frequency at the non- overtaking [(range-0.5)/n], called Hazen F0 : Facteur de sécurité initial (initial security factor) FAO : Food and Agriculture Organization FM : Modulation de fréquence (frequency modulation) Ft : Forfataire (fixed) GEE : Global Environment Facility GES : Gaz à Effet de Serre (greenhouse gas) GEV : Generalized Extreme Value GIEC : Groupe d'experts International sur l'Evolution du Climat (intergovernmental panel on climate change) GIZ : Gessellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit HCP : Haut Commissariat au Plan (office of the plan high commissioner) HF : Bande des hautes fréquences (high frequency band) Hmax : Altitude maximale du plus long talweg (mNGM) (maximal height of the longest thalweg) Hmin : Altitude de l’oued au niveau de l’exutoire (mNGM) (height of the wadi at the level of the drain) I(T, tc) : Intensité de la pluie (mm/h) (rainfall intensity) IAV : Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire (agronomic and veterinary institute) Ic : Indice de consistance (index of consistency) IDF : Intensité – Durée – Fréquence (intensity – duration – frequency) INRA : Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (national institute of the agronomic research) Ip : Indice de plasticité (index of plasticity) LCPC: Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées (central laboratory of the Ponts et Chaussées) Lmax : Longueur du plus long thalweg (Km) (length of the longest thalweg) M : Moyenne (average) MAPAQ : Ministère de l’Agriculture, des Pêcheries et de l’Alimentation de Québec (Ministry of agriculture, fishery and alimentation of Quebec) MAPM : Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Pêche Maritime (Ministry of agriculture and maritime fishing Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 4 MASEN : Morocco Agency for Solar ENergy Max : Maximum MCG (GCM) : Modèle de Circulation Générale (Global Circulation Model) MCR (RCM) : Modèle Climatique Régional (Regional Climate Model) Me/MED : Médiane (median) MEMEE : Ministère de l’Energie, des Mines, de l’Eau et de l’Environnement. (Ministry of energy, mines, water and environment) METL : Ministère de l’Equipement, du Transport et de la Logistique (Ministry of equipment, transport and logistics) Min : Minimum mNGM : Unité métrique par rapport au Nivellement Général du Maroc (metric unit in relation to the general leveling of Morocco) MRC (RCM) : Modèle de Climatique Régionale (Regional Climate Model) MRd : Précipitation journalière maximum (Maximum daily rainfall) MTETM: Ministère des Transports, de l’Equipement, du Tourisme et de la Mer, France (Ministry of transports, equipment, tourism and sea, France) MUSD: Millions de Dollars (millions of dollars) n: Taille de l’échantillon ou nombre d’années d’observation (size of the sample or number of years of observation) N°: Numéro du poste de pluie (number of the rain post) NF : Norme Française (French norm) P : Pente du thalweg (m/m ou en %) (gradient of the thalweg (m/m or in %) Pan : Pluie annuelle (mm) (annual rainfall) PHE: Plus hautes eaux calculées (highest water calculated) PK: Point Kilométrique (kilometer markers) PNUD: Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement (United Nations development program) PR: Point de Référence (reference point) OA: Ouvrages d’art (road structure) OH : Ouvrage hydraulique (hydraulic structure) ONEE: Office Nationale de l’Eléctricité et de l’Eau potable (National Office of electricity and drinkable water) ORMVA: Office Régional de Mise en Valeur Agricole (Regional Office of agricultural development)  : Diamètre (mm) (diameter) Pjmax : Pluie journalière maximale annuelle (mm) (maximal annual daily rainfall) 3 Qjmax : Débit journalier maximal annuel (m /s) (maximal annual daily flow) 3 Qp : Débit de pointe (m /s) (peak flow) Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 5 RCP : Representative Concentration Pathways – scénarios d'émissions de GES du projet CMIP5 RIMAROCC : Risk Management for Roads in a Changing Climate RN: Route Nationale (national road) RP: Route Provinciale (provincial road) RQD: Rock Quality Designation RR: Route Régionale (regional road) S : Ecart type (standard deviation) Sbv : Surface du bassin versant (size of the drainage basin) (Km²) SDSM : Statistical DownScaling Model SEEE: Système d’Evaluation de l’Etat des Eaux (system of evaluation of the state of the water) SEGMA : Service géré de manière autonome (service managed independently) SIG: Système d’Information Géographique (system of geographic information) SNC : Seconde Communication Nationale à la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques (second national communication at the united nations framework convention on climate change) SOMD: Self-Organizing Map Downscaling SRES : scénarios d'émissions de GES du projet CMIP3 issus du « Special Report on Emissions Scenarios » (emission scenarios of the GES of the project CMIP3, from the « special report on emissions scenarios) T : Période de retour (ans), [T = 1/(1-F)] (return period (years)) tc : Temps de concentration (time of concentration) TMJA: Trafic Moyen Journalier Annuel (average annual daily traffic) TR : Précipitation totale annuelle (Total rainfall) TRm : Précipitation totale mensuelle (Total monthly rainfall) TVA: Taxe sur la Valeur Ajoutée (value-added tax) u : Variable réduite de Gumbel (Gumbel’s reduced value) (u = -Ln (-Ln (F))) UHF : Bande des ultras hautes fréquences (ultra high frequency band) UNISDR: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction USCS: Unified Soils Classification System VHF : Bande des très hautes fréquences (very high frequency band) WEGE : Weather Generator wl : Limite de liquidité (liquid limit) wp : Limite de plasticité (plastic limit) WRF : Weather Research & Forecasting Model Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 6 Glossary Anchorage : area allowing the fixing of the end of a passive reinforcement, in the concrete. Annual maximal daily flow Q jmax : maximal sample value consisted of daily flows during a hydrological 3 year (in m /s). Climatic hazard : Event likely to happen, which might carry damages on the populations, the activities and the environment. It is a question of or climatic extremes, or evolutions in more or less the long term (GIEC). Climate scenario : Plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on a logical set of internal climatological relations, which have been established to study the potential consequences of the human activity on the climate change, and often used as entry for impact models (GIEC). Concentration time tc : time at the end of which the water particle fell in the furthest drain area, will reach it (in minutes). Conveyance : hydraulic capacity of a hydraulic structure. 3 Daily flow Qj : volume of water observed during a day (in m /s). Disorder : anomaly likely to modify the mechanical functioning of the work. Drainage : collection and discharge of internal water. Drainage basin : part of a waterway, representing the topographical area drained by the waterway and its upstream tributaries, so that any runoff appearing inside this area has to cross this section, called drain, to continue its way to the downstream. Dynamic downscaling : Use of regional climatic model of finer spatial resolution, forced by the general circulation model (couple MCR/MCG). Elastic modulus : number that characterizes the rule of a material elastic deformation. Elasticity : property of a deformed element momentarily by the action of an external strength, to regain its initial state as soon as the strength stop acting. Emission of greenhouse gas scenario : Plausible representation of the future development of substance emission, having a radiative potential (greenhou se gas, aerosol,…) based on a logical set of hypothesis on the internal forcing (like the development of the demography and the economy, the technological evolution) and the key relations (GIEC). Flow Q : total volume of water which flows through a straight section of the waterway during a 3 considered time unit (in m /s). Frequency at the excess F : probability that a value is at least equal to a given value will occur. Frequency of Hazen : empirical formulation to represent the frequency at the non-excess F’ (F’ = 1 – F). Gabion : cage of mesh or of metal fence, filled with stones or pebbles, designed for the creation of a protection or shoring device. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 7 General circulation pattern (MCG) : Atmospherical models and oceanic general circulation coupled, which represent the physical process of the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere and the land surface, to simulate the response of the global climatic system to the increase of the greenhouse effect. (GIEC). Gumbel distribution : rule of statistical adjustment used to represent the extreme events. Gumbel’s reduced variable : reduced variable combined to the adjustment law of Gumbel, it can be defined by U = - Ln (-Ln (F)). Highway drainage : set of measures applied for the collection and the drain of superficial and internal water in the highway right-of-way, as well as for the re-establishment of the external superficial runoff off the road. Hydrologic year i : year which begins at the beginning of september of the calendar year i and which ends at the end of august of the calendar year i+1. IDF or Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves : curves giving the intensity of the rainfall during the different return periods, and the different time steps. They are the result of the counting of the rainfall recorders information. Instability of the rock : sudden uncoupling of the geological structure on a large surface, and which comes with a massive drop of materials. Landslide : geological phenomenon, where a mass of earth fall on a slope, in other words a more or less continued sliding plane, more or less curved or flat. Maxi-annual daily rainfall Pjmax : maximum value of the sample made of daily rain, during a hydrological year (in mm). Median : value which allows to share a numeric serial organized in two parts of the same amount of elements. Micropile : pile of a diameter of less of about 300mm, reinforced or not, which can resist under certain traction conditions. Modelling mesh : Spatial resolution of a given model (also called ‘’railings’’). Montana’s parameters : regional parameter, a et b, enabling the estimation of the rain intensity during a given frequency and time step. Multi-model set : Use of a set of many models. It allows drawing more information like the multi- model average, which give the tendency by smoothing the differences between the models. It also allows to compare the results of each model and to analyze their convergence, their dispersion, the extreme projections, etc. Nailing : technique of strengthening an existing soil using nails. Outlet of a pond : the most downstream point of the river system, by which all the runoff waters drained by the pond pass. Pile : buried beam, usually vertically, made of steel, reinforced concrete or wood, set up in the land sinking or drilling, and used in the deep foundations. Plasticity (or plastic field) : behaviour field of a material, beyond the elastic limit, when the deformations are no more proportional to the applied strength. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 8 Purge : intervention during which we remove materials considered too instable to help to maintain the pavement, on a limited area. Quantiles : value taken by a variable for probability values, worthing a remarkable value. In hydrology, we usually take value corresponding at the return periods 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. Radio link-up : time range during which a user can broadcast. Rain gauge : measuring equipment of the amount of water fell in a given time. Rainfall intensity : quantity of rain fell during a time interval (in mm/hr). Rainfall recorder : recording device for rainy events. Regional climatic model (MCR) : Climatic model at the highest resolution on a limited geographical area (GIEC). Regionalization or downscaling : Method to extract from local to regional information (10 to 100 km), based on templates or a larger scale data base (GIEC). Return period T : average interval of recurrence, defined as the opposite of the excess probability F to observe a rain or a rise event (in years). Rockfill : set of boulders or concrete prefabricated elements placed at the bottom of the pond or as a cladding for the banks to protect the bases or the surroundings of a work. Runoff coefficient Cr : often used grade in surface hydrology to quantify the part of rain which flowed by the drain compared to the average rain collected by the pond. Safety factor : concept in civil engineering to appreciate the acceptable risk or the state of operating limit. Settling : vertical deformation of the ground due to the external pressure application, like the backfills, the foundations or its own weight. Statistic downscaling : Use of empirical method to establish the statistic relations between the atmospheric variables of large scale and the local or regional climatic variables. Standard deviation S : notion of dispersion, defined as the square root of the variance. The variance being the arithmetical average of the squares of the difference in relation with the average. Synoptic station : weather station, which measures representative parameters of atmospheric phenomenon at a synoptic scale (from some thousands of kilometers for the horizontal dimensions, from some kilometers for the vertical dimensions and from some days for the duration). Time horizon : year of maturity, which represents the time period (20 or 30 years) during which the data will be regarded, generally in the middle of the period. Time step : time interval in minutes, considered during the creation of the IDF curves (generally 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 120, et 360 minutes). Support structure : structure meant to maintain the lands. Uncertainty : State of incomplete knowledge, which might result from a lack of information or a disagreement about what is known, or even what it is possible to know. It might be due to many sources, to the vagueness of the data, to the ambiguous definition of concepts or terminology. It might be quantitative (for example : a probability density function) or qualitative (for example : «according to experts ») (GIEC). Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 9 Variation coefficient Cv : coefficient characterizing the importance of the dispersal around the average M (Cv = S / M). Vegetal engineering : stabilization technique of the waterway banks, based on the vegetals fixing power by means of their roots. Vulnerability : susceptibility of a concern system to suffer damages under the action of a danger. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 10 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1.INTRODUCTION Morocco meets extreme climate events, which rhythm and intensity seem to have increased these last years, because of the climate change. The repairs of exceptional damage, suffered by the road infrastructure cost 4 billions dirhams since 2009, from which about 3 billions taken from the budget allocated to the road maintenance. The intense rainfalls lead to large-scale mudslide, as well as flood and road erosion, causing the cut of main strands, such as the Rabat-Casablanca motorway, and the isolation of some communities. The mountainous terrain of the country increases the consequences of the flood in the areas of low altitude. These climatic events seriously trouble the economic activity and create large direct or indirect losses. In 2010, the World Bank conducted a study on the adaptation of the moroccan transport sector regarding the climate change. This study diagnosed the adaptation difficulties in Morocco, and offered an action plan containing a series of technical, operational and institutional measures. The moroccan partners of the Bank welcomed positively the study and expressed their interest for the research of specific technical measures allowing to improve the continuity of the road network and for the follow- up of the recommendations. In this respect, the World Bank entrusted, in 2014, the fulfillment of this project about the roads adjustment to the risk and the climate change in Morocco, to the engineering company INGÉROP, with the collaboration of two other companies, NOVEC, a moroccan company, specialized in the infrastructure field, and ACTERRA, a company which field of expertise is the studies of climate change. This study, financed thanks to a donation fo the Korean Green Growth Trust Fund, is a pilot study, designed in order to bring an analytical support to the Direction des Routes du Ministère de l’Equipement, du Transport et de la Logistique (METL) (Direction of the Roads from the Ministry of Equipment, Transport and Logistic), in the evaluation of the vulnerability of some important road sections in Morocco, and the suggestion of specific technical recommendations, aimed at improving the resistance of the sections to the climate change. The target is to show the feasibility of adaptation technical measures of the road infrastructures to the climate change in Morocco, through the detailed analysis of some important road sections. CONTENT OF THE STUDY This study has included three phases :  Activity 1 : Evaluation of the vulnerability of the road sections. The goal of this first step was to evaluate the vulnerability of 4 road sections, on the basis of a diagnosis of the current configuration of the 4 sections, an evaluation of the risk under the climate change and the potential impacts of the climate change on the 4 road sections.  Activity 2 : Recommendations to adapt the road infrastructures to climate change. The aim of the second step of the study was to present the recommendations allowing to adapt the road infrastructures to climate change. Therefore, this report offers technical recommendations in hydrology, hydraulic and geotechnics (including also the pavements), concerning the types of disorders observed on the 4 studied road Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 11 sections. It is not question of an exhaustive inventory of practical recommendations for the whole set of moroccan road network. After all, these recommendations should allow the Direction of Roads to start a more in-depth thinking on the encountered problems and the strategic axes to fix for the next years.  A workshop of participatory work for the attention of the staff of the Direction of the Roads and of the METL. Apart from the restitution of the activity results of activities 1 and 2, the goal of this workshop was also to collect the comments of the participants, in order to possibly integrate them to the final version of the report. Finally, it can be noted that a simplified guide going to the Direction of the Roads has been devised. Its purpose was to complete the study from some practical procedures, which can be applied by the services of the Direction of the Roads, in order to better adapt the infrastructures they manage, to extreme events due to the rain, which takes place nowadays, as well as to the potential risk tied to the climate change. The guide is therefore organized in 3 parts :  Part 1 : Method of defining the vulnerability of road sections, due to hydraulic and geotechnical risks ;  Part 2 : Method of hierarchization of repair works and/or strengthening concerning the hydraulic or geotechnical phenomenon ;  Part 3 : The «good practices » for the designing of works. THE PERIMETER OF THE STUDY The 4 road sections chosen by the Direction of the Roads for this study are the following :  DPETL of Chefchaouen : National Road 2 between Chefchaouen and Issaguen on 95 km (PK 116 to 211) ;  DRETL Taza : Regional Road 508 between Saka and Outabouabane on 157 km (PK 15 to 172).  DPETL of Midelt : Regional Road 706 between Rich and Imilchil on 120 km (PK 0 to 120) ;  DPETL Taroudant : Regional Road 106 between Ighrem and Assaki on 45 km (PK 75 to 120) ; The map on next page illustrates the location of the studied road sections. These 4 road sections were chosen because they are characteristic of the natural disasters, Morocco had to cope with these last years (2008, 2009 and 2010) : flood, landslide, gully erosion, crumbling and snowy episode. These disasters, which produced important damages on the populations and the road infrastructures, are essentially due to two leading climatic factors, such as rain and snow. The relating studies to the climate change carried out these last years confirm that the rain factor is leading, because this parameter generates the most important repair costs :  Study of the World Bank «Kingdom of Morocco – Adaptation of the transport sector to the climate change » - June 2010 : « In any event, probably the increase previsions of frequency and intensity of stormy precipitations and torrential flooding deserve the greatest attention, in regard to the problematic of adaptation to the climate change» ;  Study of the World Bank in Ghana «Making Transport Climate Resilient » - 2010: « Rainfall will have the most significant cost impact on Ghana’s road network. Temperature and wind will have minor Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 12 cost implications that should be dealt with during the design phase, and will not have an overall large influence on the cost of a climate resilient road. For this economic analysis, only the influence of increased rain is investigated ». In this way, this study first concentrate on these two climatic factors, in regard to their aptitude to at best characterize the different climatic phenomenon observed on the 4 chosen road sections. Consequently, the other climatic factors likely to affect the road infrastructures, which are the wind, the temperature (frost/thaw and heat), silting and the marine submersions (because of the rise of the sea level) have not been treated in this study. Despite everything, the review conducted as part of this pilot study could be completed later on, by the study of road sections characterized by these climatic factors (roads located in a desert and/or on the edge of coastal zones). THE LIMITS OF THE STUDY The conclusions of activity 1 pertaining to the evaluation of the hazard under climate change and to the potential impacts of the climate change, on the 4 road sections not having allowed to bring to light the variation of extreme rainfalls (daily and intra-day rains), further to the climate change (only slight variations were brought to light for the annual average rains), it was therefore chosen to retain the current situation as the reference situation with an upkeep of the current risk for the future, and this especially as the analysis of design method brought to light that the hydrological uncertainty (definition of rainfall and hydrological parameters, as well as the evaluation method of the flows) presented uncertainties well above these of the climate change. In this way, in the frame of activity 2, the study headed towards the adaptation of the road, in the current situation, and in the definition of recommendations to, on one hand, reduce the hydrological uncertainties and on the other hand, conceive the repair works and/or strengthening. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 13 1 2 3 4 Figure 1 : Location of the studied road sections Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 14 1.2.ACTIVITY 1 : EVALUATION OF THE VULNERABILITY OF ROAD SECTIONS 1.2.1. The applied methodology The evaluation method of the road sections vulnerability is based on the collection and using of the set of existing data about the current climatic conditions, the climate change and the situational analysis of the road sections. In this way, this evaluation consists in 4 principal steps :  Step 1 : the collection and validation of the data ;  Step 2 : the evaluation of the hazard of climate change ;  Step 3 : the diagnosis of the current technical configuration of the 4 road sections ;  Step 4 : the evaluation of potential impact of the climate change for the 4 road sections. Finally, a methodology of definition and hierachization of the road sections vulnerability is suggested. This pragmatic method presents the advantage of being easy to implement and practical to new projects like existing infrastructures. For the administrator of the road infrastructures, this method will allow to define, in a first phase, the necessity of works to bringing up to standard, and in a second phase, to plan them. 1.2.2. Step 1 : Inventory of the basic data available The collection of data concerned the 4 following themes : THE DATA RELATED TO THE CURRENT CLIMATIC CONDITIONS The two climatological factors retained by the Engineering were the rain and the snow. They have been chosen in regard to their ability to characterize at best the different phenomenon observed on the 4 road section to be studied : flood, landslide, gully erosion, crumbling and snow. The climatological data to collect at the reference stations of these 4 sections in order to study them are the following :  Pluviometry :  Annual maximum daily rain (Pjmax) : The Engineering has available pluviometric data thanks to other studies made in the Kingdom of Morocco, which have been completed with data acquired from « la Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (DMN) » the Direction of the National Meteorology;  Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) : the Engineering has also available a database on the Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves, acquired from the DMN as part of the different hydrologic, hydraulic and road drain surveys, it conducted, for the account of the « Direction des Routes (DR) » (Direction of the Roads), as well as for the « Société des Autoroutes du Maroc (ADM) » (Society of Motorway of Morocco). Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 15  Snow :  Number of snowy day per month : data not available. The Engineering contacted the DMN, which confirmed that the inventory was not yet quantified ;  Maximum period of time of snow : data not available. The unique available information is the one passed for the different DPETL during the field visits. Another source of information is supplied by the « Bulletins de Viabilité Routière » (Reports on Road Safety) which reflect the days the sections were cut because of the snow cover. THE DATA RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE The inventory work was based on two principal sources :  A review of the existing documentation , especially the studies and research work of reference in the field of the climate change pattern, and the analysis of the impacts at the local level, in direct link with the hazards and section to be studied ;  An utilization of two reference databases at an international level likely to supply the regionalized estimation data from models of the GIEC (CMIP3 and CMIP5) with the parameters and scale of work of the study. After the inventory and the analysis of sources, the available data were :  Pluviometry :  Annual maximum daily rains (Pjmax) : the Engineering found the studies, as well as estimations with reference to this parameter ;  Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) : up to now no collected study nor estimation ever deals with this parameter.  Snow : No study nor regionalised estimation could be found on the snow parameter. THE DATA RELATED TO THE INVENTORY OF FIXTURES OF THE SECTIONS The inventory work was based on two principal sources :  Meetings : as soon as the project started, the Engineering drew up an inventory of the data and studies of interest, ant this for many thematics (hydraulic, geotechnic, pavement, traffic, climate change, etc…). The Engineering contacted the DR, DPETL, ant the DRETL in order to obtain the available data to use them. During the meetings, the Engineering could have noted that there is a problem with the data archiving, which was the reason why the data available were so limited.  Field visits with supervisors of DRETL/DPETL of each section, who showed a true knowledge of the existing problems, and who constituted an essential information source for the realization of this study. These field inspections enabled to soak up with the special features of the studied sites, the right of the hot spot indicated by the directions, and to notice the types of hydraulic, geotechnic and pavement structures disorders, which these sections suffer. These visits were the subject of a detailed report, with a photo-reportage (Annex 1 – Report of visits) and enabled to draw a table of types of disorders, with their distribution by theme. It is not an exhaustive list. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 16 THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA The engineering identified some parameters enabling to establish the strategic nature of each section :  Served population : in the « Recensement Général de la population et de l’habitat 2004 » (General Census of the population and of the environment 2004) published by the High Commissioner for the Plan (HCP). The number of inhabitants is taken a census by town.  Economic activity : through the number of industrial establishments with their workforce and turnover (website of the moroccan observatory of the Industry) and the employment rate (HCP). The agricultural inventory from 1996, the Green Morocco Plan organizes an inventory which will take place from 2014 until 2020. The Engineering did not include the agricultural activity as a parameter, because of the lack of updated data  Traffic : through the document « Recueil Trafic Routier 2012 » (Collection Road Traffic 2012) of the Direction of the Roads. The Engineering has been able to take an inventory of a daily average traffic, as well as the percentage of the different types of vehicles. This information was available for all the sections except the RR106 one (Ighrem-Assaki). The Engineering assimilated its traffic to the one of the section Imilchil-Rich (RR706), which serves similar lands. 1.2.3. Step 2 : Evaluation of the hazard of climate change The aim of this evaluation is to define the extent of the awaited climate change, as well as the level of uncertainty linked to these estimations. For this purpose, the studied parameters were the pluviometry (annual average precipitation and maximum daily rain) and the snow. Two data sources were used, to wit, on one hand, a number of studies and existing research works and on the other hand, two databases of online simulations. The study examines two time horizons : 2035 and 2050. The used data come from the downscaling works. It is question of « regionalized » data, from the global modelisation results, which allows to reach a finer solution, in the order of some ten kilometers. They are more appropriate to study the future moroccan climate, and to recommend some pertinent adaptation measures. In order to be able to estimate a part of uncertainty, many future climatic scenarios were considered (from optimistic to pessimistic). Furthermore, each scenario, a set of model is used, in order to compare their results and chart the inter-model dispersion. By means of observation data of the DMN, the results of the climatic estimations could be compared on historical durations. This also inform on the modelisation fiability. ANALYSIS OF DATA  The existing climatic studies : many reference studies on the climate modelisation and its impacts at local, regional and national scales exist in Morocco. The efforts of information research are concentrated on the works judged the most pertinent in regard to the needs of the study.  The studies differentiate according to the geographic coverage (national or regional), to the model of downscaling (dynamic and/or statistic), to the resolution of the study grid (25km, 250 km, etc..), to the reference period and the projection horizons. The other characteristic to remember concerns the data on which the climatic estimation are based (daily, monthly, annual precipitations…) ;  According to the parameters of each study, it is proved that only the studies called CC7 (concerning the RR706) and CC9 (concerning the RR106) present an adequate degree of accuracy, allowing their using for the purpose of the study. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 17  The online information portal : the two chosen portals are based on the multi-model estimation and cover the whole world’s surface. They enable, via proven downscaling statistics, to have data on the sections or on the nearest stations of the DMN. These methods do not totally replace the dynamic regionalization method, but offer, nevertheless, a satisfactory level of reliability, as a result of, particularly, the use of a great number of model-scenario couples.  Climate Information Portal (CIP) :  Provides data by station : Al Hoceima, Taza, Errachidia and Agadir have been taken on.  The two retained parameters were : total monthly precipitation (TRm) to reconstitute the total annual precipitation (Pan) and the maximum daily precipitation (MRd)  Climate Wizard (CW) :  Provides the data by interpolated grid.  The two retained parameter were : total annual precipitation (TR) and the annual daily average precipitation (DR). From the analysis of data of these two portals, the following observations come up :  Total annual precipitation (Pan) : the two portals highlight a decrease of this parameter, variable from -12 to -34% by 2050 and 2055 ;  Maximum daily precipitation (Pjmax) : only the portal CIP give information on this parameter. Globally, we observe the decrease of heights average maxi-annual daily precipitations, by two dates (2035 and 2050), except for the Errachidia’s post, where no tendency emerges (no decrease nor increase). This decrease is included between 9% and 22%. However, for the extremes of precipitations (maximum value of the maxi-annual daily precipitation on the simulated periods), by 2035 and 2050, no tendency of increase or decrease emerges, except for the AGADIR post, where a very light decrease of precipitation heights is observed (-1 to -10%). SUMMARY From the analysis of bibliographic data (prior studies) and portals of climatic estimations, the Engineering remembered the following data :  Total annual precipitation (Pan) : the Engineering chose for each section data to remember for the next phase, generally : dynamic downscaling, if it exists ; after CIP, if the station is sufficiently representative ; otherwise, the CW data (only available by 2055) ;  Maximum daily precipitation (Pjmax) : only the tool CIP gives information on this parameter. From the bibliographic analysis, it is noticed that the whole of works agree on a decrease of the annual average pluviometry. Nevertheless, the extent of the evolution greatly varies according to one scenario and model or another, it is consequently difficult to estimate a more reliable estimation. As for the extreme rains, only the Midelt section has the data, and only in winter, no tendency is identifiable. The documentary review does not enable to give all the information about the wished parameters, it is completed by the use of two online climatic data portals (CIP and CW). This enables to confirm the general decrease of annual average precipitation for the four sections. The analysis of daily maximal rains shows that, globally, the rains should also decrease in the future for all the sections (however, some models show an increase of the quantiles by the considered dates). However, these results contain a greater part of uncertainty, because of the difficulty to modelize the extremes. A more extensive work of dynamic downscaling and of statistic treatment of the extremes, particularly from the Cordex program’s data, could enable to reduce a part of th is uncertainty, without hoping an absolutely perfect and certain information. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 18 1.2.4. Step 3 : Diagnosis of the current configuration of the 4 road sections THE CONTENT OF THE DIAGNOSIS This step consisted in drawing up a report of the current technical situation of the 4 studied sections, on the following aspects : hydro-climatic, configuration of the road infrastructure, hydraulic, geotechnic (including the pavement structure), maintenance and socio-economic. The report has been based on field visit and available data collection. For each section, this chapter contains :  Hydrographic context : localization of the section, in relation to hydrologic units ;  Climatic context : from the available climatic data really observed (according to the reference posts, the observation years change for each section), the Engineering characterized :  From the data of the pluviometers, the annual maximum daily rains (Pjmax) and the annual rains (Pan);  From the data of the rainfall recorders, the pluviometric intensity.  Road infrastructure :  Geographic context ;  Type of the road platform ;  Analysis of days of cut ;  Allocated budgets for the road maintenance.  Hydraulic and sanitization :  Hydrographic and hydrologic context : characterization of the networks and characteristics of the watershed ;  Diagnosis of the problems raised with a synthesis table of the noted hydraulic disorders during the visits.  Geotechnics and pavements :  Geological context : geological characterization of the grounds crossed by the section ;  Diagnosis of the problems raised with a synthesis table of the noted geotechnical disorders ;  Analysis of the maintenance made on the road, for the available sections.  Socio-economic context : analysis of four selected parameters for the evaluation of the strategical character of the road. THE RESULTS OF THE DIAGNOSIS This diagnosis enabled :  To establish, for the 4 studied road sections, types of reported disorders during the field visits : see the tables in the following pages. For the hydraulic and sanitization part, the encountered problematic concern :  The crossing of the wadis, via submersible rafts and submersible bridges ;  The road sections following the wadis and affected by the fluvial erosion ;  The crossing of the chaaba ;  The rain erosion of the watershed and road embankment (rubble and ballast) ;  The collection and evacuation network of the road platforms ;  The maintenance of the works and sanitization network. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 19 For the geotechnical part, the encountered problematic concern :  The landslides ;  The rocky instability (crumblings and fall of blocks) ;  The pavement deterioration (cracking, collapse, etc.).  To bring to light the main dysfunctions in the right to the four road sections, like the located and examined nerve center confirm it during the field survey ;  To bring to light the persistence of the major part of the instability, despite the intervention made by the different managements. Indeed, the started repair works were limited to the re- establishment of the traffic and of the road rehabilitation urgently, without attacking the origin of the problems suffered by the sections. The analysis of the «Bulletins de Viabilité Routière » (Report of the Road Viability) (BVR) enabled to establish, by sections, the cuts that affected the roads, as well as their cause (snow, rise) and their duration. This piece of information, originally very useful for the study, is also partial. In this way, it is noticed, on one hand, that the BVR’s records are not systematical ly created, and on the other hand, that the DR does not have an archiving or tracking system enabling its statistical analysis. Consequently, the analysis of the information source cannot lead to reliable conclusions. The analysis of the maintenance budget, allocated to each section, also shows a lack of maintenance of the roads, which shortens their lifetime. This analysis is despite everything incomplete, because the obtained information is not workable in its entirety, and the data of some years are missing. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 20 Synthesis of the types of the encountered problematic : hydraulic - sanitation part Assessment of the encountered disorders Types of encountered problematics Themes RN 2 RR 508 RR 706 RR 106 Total 4 sections Principal secondary Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Degradations in the right of a submersible bridge Scouring in the upstream of a submersible raft Crossing structure Haulage of boulders or sediment transport 4 8,3% 7 18,9% 11 16,2% 17 45,9% 39 21,3% of a wadi Degradations or scouring in the right of a bridge Scouring in the right of a former submersible raft River hydraulic Absence of adjoining developments (plan of protection of backfill) Road at the outskirt Erosion of the bank/base of backfill by the attack of the current and variations of a wadi : fluviale 0 0,0% 5 13,5% 7 10,3% 2 5,4% 7 3,8% of the water levels (flooding and deflooding) erosion Total 4 8,3% 12 32,4% 18 26,5% 19 51,4% 46 25,1% Absence of network of collection and evacuation of rain waters Sanitation Absence of network of internal clearing drainage 10 20,8% 11 29,7% 18 26,5% 5 13,5% 44 24,0% Absence of protective devices at the end of the crossing structures Maintenance of the Absence of maintenance of moat 6 12,5% 3 8,1% 1 1,5% 0 0,0% 10 5,5% network Degradations of the backfill bund at the end of the structure Absence of protective devices of the road backfill at the end of the crossing structures Crossing structure Degradation of the hydraulique structure 27 56,3% 3 8,1% 13 19,1% 9 24,3% 52 28,4% Road Sanitation of a Chaaba Problem of hydraulic blocking in the upstream Absence of upstream harnessing devices or connection to the upstream lateral network Absence of structure maintenance and upstream adjustment Erosion of the clearing bund and lateral moat Erosion of the backfill bunds Rain erosion 1 2,1% 8 21,6% 18 26,5% 4 10,8% 31 16,9% Erosion of the upstream watersheds Erosion of the clearing bunds Total 44 91,7% 25 67,6% 50 73,5% 18 48,6% 137 74,9% Total fluvial hydraulics and road sanitation 48 - 37 - 68 - 37 - 183 - Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 21 Synthesis of the types of the encountered problematics : geotechnical part Assessment of the encountered disorders Types of encountered problematics Total of the 4 Themes RN 2 RR 508 RR 106 RR 706 sections Principal secondary Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Degradations et deformations of the pavement Deformation of the strengthening systems (gabion or concrete wall) Cracking of concrete structures (moat and concrete shoulder) Landslide Absence of retaining means 12 1200,0% 14 175,0% 0 0,0% 2 50,0% 28 90,3% Geotechnics Bund of clearing or backfill in negative gradient Predominance of the altered and jammed marl Instable slope with negative topography and absence of drainage Rocky instability Degradation of the pavement by the tumbled boulders (blocs fall, Absence of appropriate protective means 4 400,0% 1 12,5% 4 26,7% 5 125,0% 14 45,2% crumbling) Clearing of fracked rock with steep grade Total 16 1600,0% 15 187,5% 4 26,7% 7 175,0% 42 135,5% Deformation and undulation of the pavement Lowering of the pavement Longitudinale cracking Degradation of the Destruction of the pavement 11 40,7% 20 57,1% 11 61,1% 17 425,0% 59 190,3% Pavement pavement Structure Shoulder concreted broken or ruined Structure Shoulder clearing side filled by scree Evolution of the potholes Total 11 40,7% 20 57,1% 11 61,1% 17 425,0% 59 190,3% Total Geotechnics and Pavement Structure 27 - 35 - 15 - 24 - 101 - Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 22 1.2.5. Step 4 : Evaluation of the possible impacts of the climate change. During this step, the Engineering tried to analyze the possible impacts of the climate change on the risks laid open to the four sections. This analysis was about the three parts : hydrology-hydraulic, geotechnics-pavement, and snow, and was based on the results of the step 2, which resulted in a partial quantification of the effects of climate change on the annual rain and maxi-annual daily rain. HYDROLOGY-HYDRAULIC PART For this part, the Engineering presented the estimation methods of design flow, as well as a qualitative evaluation of the impact of the climate change on phenomena such as flooding, scouring, erosion, etc… The Engineering also underlined uncertainties sullying this evaluation, the introduced calculation methods, as well as the calculation of the quantiles issued from the statistic adjustments. The confrontation of results of the climate change with the uncertainties highlighted the difficulty to appreciate the evolution of the risk incurred by the 4 sections, on the basis of considered climatic parameter. In conclusion, the noted disorders and the damages caused by the rises and/or the localized storms are directly dependant of the extreme precipitations, as the last recent events of november 2014 showed it ; these extremes could be characterized by maxi-annual daily rain and hourly or infra-hourly pluviometric intensities. It emphasizes that the evolution of the hazard of the climate change brought to light, primarily for the annual rain (decrease more or less noted), are not enough to conclude at a decrease of hydrologic and hydraulic risks in the future. Indeed, the analysis conducted clearly shows that the current hydrologic uncertainties are largely above the pluviometric variations brought to light in the study about the hazard of climate change, and especially that they are also subjected to uncertainties. So it is desirable to give the priority :  On one hand, to characterize the vulnerability of the road sections : see in next chapter the proposition of a pragmatic method of the vulnerability definition ;  On the other hand, to make more reliable the hydro-pluviometric parameters and the evaluation methods of the peak flow, the flow condition (speed of flow) and the erosion and scouring phenomena : see the recommendations of the activity 2. GEOTECHNICAL- PAVEMENT PART For this part, the Engineering presented different disorders noted on the field, underlining their types, their probable appearance causes, and their different manifestations. This part also brought to light the complexity of the phenomena, which are the results of the convergence of many factors in bonds with the mechanic characteristics of the grounds, the crossed unstable slopes, as well as the climatic factors. In regard to the evolution of the climate change, brought to light on one hand the annual pluviometry (tendency to decrease) and on the other hand, for the maxi-annual daily rains (no significant tendency, except for the section of the RR106, where a slight decrease has been brought to light), nothing enables to conclude to a decrease or an increase of geotechnics risks in the future . Indeed, the disorders noted depend also on other factors, which evolution are unknown : particularly, the hourly our infra-hourly pluviometric intensities characterizing the storms, the temperatures and the rotation of frost/thaw. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 23 SNOW PART For the aspect related to the snow, the lack of data (present and future) has not allowed to define the impact of the climate change on this parameter, which concerns specially the RN2 and the RR706. Consequently, the analysis of the impact of the climate change on the snow risk could not have been done. 1.2.6. Definition of the vulnerability of the road sections A definition method of the vulnerability of the road sections about the hydraulic and geotechnical risks has been suggested. This method aims to order the road sections on the basis of 4 classes of vulnerability and a set of characteristic indicators of the hydraulic and geotechnical disorder observed for the 4 road sections. These elements form guidelines and a decision support tool for the managers of these roads, to identify the possible vulnerable areas. The tables in the next pages present a grid of definition of the vulnerability classes for the following themes :  Fluvial hydraulics ;  Road sanitation ;  Geotechnics ;  Pavement structure. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 24 FLUVIAL HYDRAULICS Table 1 – Grid of definition of vulnerability classes – Fluvial erosion Vulnerability Presence of a concave bank Absence of a concave bank (parallel to the road9 indicator (meander or bent) Distance between the base of the road bund and the Distance between the base of the road bund and the Parameters taken wadi bank (d) wadi bank (d) into account d≤1m* 1 10 m d≤1m* 1 10 m Vulnerability of the Very High High Average Low to Zero High Average Low to Zero Low to Zero road section * base of a road backfill in the bottom of the wadi Table 2 – Grids of definition of vulnerability classes – Crossing a junction Nature of the Non submersible bridge structure Vulnerability Scourign in the right of the piles and/or Air draughts for the flooding project Dispositifs de protection contre les indicators abutment (TA) * érosions et affouillements Revenge between the PHE** and the Scouring bed Piles and abutments Adjoining backfills dimension of the downstand beams Parameters taken Non into account Foundation scouring bed Superficial buried and/or on TA < 0,5 m 0,5 < TA < 1 m TA > 1 m Absence Presence Absence Presence foundation substratum Vulnerability of the Low to Low to Very High High Low to Zero High Average Low to Zero High High road section Zero Zero * threshold values of air draughts to double in the presence of tree trunks ** Highest Waters for the reference flooding Nature of the Submersible bridge structure Protective devices Vulnerability Level of the pavement in Scouring at the bottom of the bed against the erosions and indicators scourable site (blocking) scourings Scourable bed Parameters taken Sparcely Lit non Bridge of Bridge of Absence Presence into account Large scouring important affouillable great height low height h > 2,5 to 3 m scouring h < 2,5 to 3 m Vulnerability of the Very High High Low to Zero High Low to Zero Very High Low to Zero road section h : depth of scouring or depth of the unscourable substratum Nature of the Submersible raft structure Protective devices against the Vulnerability Upstream and downstream Level of the pavement in erosion and scouring on the indicators low wall scouring site (blocking) downstream side Raft blocked Raft blocked at Parameters taken Absence Presence Absence Presence over the bottom the bottom of into account of the bed the bed Vulnerability of High Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Low to Zero road section Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 25 ROAD SANITATION Table 3 – Grid of definition of vulnerability classes – Sanitation and maintenance Presence of a significant Presence of a significant Network of collection and Vulnerability external watershed which external watershed which Protective devices at Maintenance de evacuation at the base of the indicators runoff is oriented towards the runoff is oriented towards the the rejection points sanitation networks bank of clearing bank of clearing bank of backfill Network of collection and Network of collection and Parameters taken evacuation at the crest of the evacuation at the base of the Absence Presence clearing backfill Absence Presence Absence Presence into account Absence Presence Absence Presence Vulnerability of the High Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Low to Zero road section Table 4 – Grid of definition of vulnerability classes – Crossing a Chaaba Degradation of the hydraulic Harnessing device in Vulnerability Degradation of the backfill bund at the ends of the Protective devices against Downstream hydraulic Maintenance of the structrure(upstream/downstream ends clearing and joining to the indicators structure erosions and scouring blocking or solid transport structure and/or raft) longitudinal network - Start of the adjoining Start from Parameters taken backfill Start of the head Start of Absence Absence Presence Absence Presence Absence Absence Presence Absence Presence into account - creation of the fall apparition downstream appatition - pit of scouring or upstream Vulnerability of the Very High High Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Average Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Low to Zero road section Table 5 – Grid of definition of vulnerability classes – Rain erosion Erosion of the clearing Vulnerability Erosion of the backfill Erosion of the upstream Erosion of the clearing bunds and the lateral indicators bunds watershed bunds pits Parameters taken Presence Absence Presence Absence Presence Absence Presence Absence into account Vulnerability of the High Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Low to Zero High Low to Zero road sections Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 26 GEOTECHNICS Table 6 – Grid of definition of the vulnerability classes – Landslide Nature of Landslide the disorder Vulnerability Plant place Saturation of the ground/Sensibility Lithology "Soap" Coat Height / slope Annual average rain indicators setting towards the water Parameters Average Average Weak Strong Average Low to zero Loose Rocky High Bass High taken into Presence Absence (trays or Absence Presence (between 300 (<300 (fine (heterogeneous (rocky sandy ground ground (in mountain) (in plain) (>600 mm) account colines) and 600 mm) mm) grounds) grounds) grounds) Vulnerability Low to Low to Low to of the road High High High Medium Low to zero High Medium High Medium High Medium Low to zero zero zero zero sections Table 7 – Grid of definition of the vulnerability classes – Rocky instability Nature of the Rocky instability disorder Temperature Vulnerability Cycles Change and erosion of the Type of rock Height/Slope variation (day Extreme rains indicators frost/thaw matrix including blocks and night) Non High Low to Average Parameters High (in Average High Weak Low to Fracturable fracturable (>3 zero (<3 Bass (in High Low (between Strong Average taken into mounta (trays or (>60 (<40 zero / unstable / non month months/ plain) (>25°) (<25°) 40 and 60 (>60%) (30 to 60%) account in) colines) mm/hr) mm/hr)) (<30%) altérable s/year) year) mm/hr) Vulnerability of Faible à Faible à Faible à Faible à the road Forte Forte Forte Moyenne Forte Faible Forte Moyenne Faible Forte Moyenne nulle nulle nulle nulle sections PAVEMENT STRUCTURE Table 8 – Grid of definition of the vulnerability classes – Pavement structure Nature of Structure of the pavement: Fissuring/Collapse/Potholes/Puddle the disorder Indicators of Temperature Saturation of the ground suppport the Cycles frost/thaw Drainage Height/Slope variation (day Traffic (clayey and marly) vulnerability and night) Low to zero Average Parameters High (Plastic Average (lp High (>3 Low to zero (<3 High (in Average (trays Bass (in High Low (grounds few Intense (TMJA Low to zero taken into Absence Presence grounds between 30 months/year) months/year) mountain) or colines) plain) (>25°) (<25°) plastiques (TMJA>4500) between 2000 (TMJA<2000) account lp>40) and 40) lp<30) and 4500) Vulnerability if Low to Low to Low to the road High Low to zero High High Medium High High Medium Low to zero High Medium Low to zero zero zero zero section Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 27 1.2.7. Limits of the study – activity 1 The aim of the activity 1 was the evaluation of the vulnerability of the road sections. This evaluation is based on the collection and the use of all the existing data related to the current climatic conditions, to the climate change and to the current report of the road sections.  Concerning the current report of the road sections, the analysis leaned in particular on the site visits, in the absence of other documents such as the project of conception, of execution, of topographic bottom in a suitable scale, of lists of OH with its sizes, of geological studies, etc. ;  The analysis of the « Bulletins de Viabilité Routière » (Bulletins of Road Viability) (BVR) should have enabled to establish, by section, the statistics of cuts (number, duration), as well as the causes (snow, flooding). This information, potentially very useful for the study, is also incomplete. So, we notice, on one hand, that the index forms of BVR are not systematically established, and on the other hand that DR has no system of archiving or tracking-up allowing his statistical analysis. Therefore, the analysis of this potential information source cannot bring to exploitable conclusions ;  The analysis of the budget of maintenance assigned to every section is with difficulty exploitable because of incomplete information and missing years. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 28 1.3.ACTIVITY 2 : RECOMMENDATIONS TO ADAPT THE INFRASTRUCTURES With regard to the conclusions of the activity 1, the working hypothesis taken into account for the activity 2 consists in considering that the climatic phenomena keep their potential of current risks in the future. As established in the reference terms, the aim of this activity is the presentation of the technical and economically advantageous recommendations for the renovation, the improvement and the maintenance of the selected sections. The stages to be able to determine these recommendations are:  Characterization of the vulnerability of the road sections: through a pragmatic method of a vulnerability definition (activity 1);  Hierarchization of the measures: the analysis "costs-profits" allow to choose the best solution with a technico-economic point of view. This analysis requires the realization of extensive studies, because it is the last stage to realize. The study presents a method allowing to rank the disorders. The objective is to supply at the DR and to the departments of operation and maintenance a method of global and reliable hierarchization in order to enable them to define a management policy of the observed disorders;  Technical Recommendations: the lack, even the absence of data and preliminary studies do not allow to establish one-to-one couples "disorder-solution". The abolition of this practice, moreover very wide- spread, is the first recommendation of our study; Our recommendations will thus limit, in this second activity, to present a range of the possible solutions which could be practical according to input data. Studies carried out from complete input data would allow a correct choice from a technical point of view ; The analysis of the studies provided to us, as well as the field visits, allowed to establish the origin of certain noticed disorders and to adapt the recommendations to the problems we met ;  Estimate of associated costs: for every possible technical solution, it is necessary to establish an estimate of associated costs. The cost estimate was realized for some scenarios. Nevertheless, all the proposed technical solutions are rather common. The DR has a wide experience in order to be able to estimate the costs of the solutions. Therefore, we did not give particular recommendations and limited this stage to give some unit prices and some comparative examples ;  Comparative economic advantage: once the different technically viable solutions are found, it is necessary to analyze which one is the most advantageous from a financial point of view. The establishment of analysis "cost-profit" of the projects is a rather common method, nevertheless, it requires also certain input data which could not be obtained during the previous phase. Our services are limited to the adaptation of this method to this study in order to allow the DR to apply it to every case, once the input data will be available. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 29 CHARACTERIZATION OF INDICATORS OF THE VULNERABILITY THE VULNERABILITY HIERARCHICAL INDICATION OF TECHNICAL PRIORITY ORGANIZATION OF SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATION THE DISORDERS INDICATION OF PRIORITY TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS TECHNICAL STUDIES ESTIMATION COST ANALYZE COST BETTER ECONOMIC TECHNICAL SOLUTION PROFIT Figure 2 : Steps for the establishment of the most favorable solution Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 30 1.3.1. Recommendations concerning the evaluation and the taking into account 1.3.1.1. Assessment The data analysis of climatic estimation which the Engineering could reach brought only a partial answer to the questions set down by the study. If a clear tendency to the decrease of the annual pluviometry emerges of analyzed projections, this one is less marked as regards the extreme pluviometric events. As for the future evolution of the snow parameter, no information could be collected, or exploited. One of the issues is to be able to produce and to put at the service of the designers and the administrators of the roads the data which allow to enlighten the way the climate change is going to come to perturb infrastructures and their environment (superficial flows, stability of grounds,…). The sizing of the latter and the measures of risk mitigation is at present made on the basis of reference hazards among which the intensity and the frequency are calculated from past meteorological chronicles. Yet, as the experts of the GIEC showed it, the hypothesis of stationarity of the climate is not valid any more, and the knowledge of the past climate turns out insufficient to comprehend the climate of tomorrow. One of the main deficiencies observed by the study lives in the weakness of the knowledge related to the evolution of the extreme phenomena, in the front row of which appear the forecasts of increase of frequency and intensity of the stormy precipitation and the torrential rises which are at the origin of most of the disorders and the damage caused in infrastructures. With regard to the uncertainties and the inaccuracies surrounding the available data of climate change for the study, the Engineering recommends, at least in the short term, to keep the current level of risk as basis of decision, which means adopting a position relatively protective and in compliance with the precautionary principle. Nevertheless, it is important in the next 3 or 5 years to set up studies, even more complete researches on the evolution of the hydro-climatic extremes (rain, snow and frost in particular) susceptible to disrupt most severely and most durably the integrity and the feature of the road network in the right of the selected sections. It will be about in particular of improving the provision and the reliability of the studied climatic parameters and to confirm or deny the tendencies to the decrease of some extreme pluviometric events as seem to indicate it the data of estimations from the CIP platform. In particular, these researches should specify the possible adjustments to be brought to the methods of calculation of the events of ten-year or centennial frequency which condition the sizing of the main works of engineering. It will be about, in particular, estimating if necessary to decrease, to keep or to increase the safety margins currently applied in the sizing of infrastructures with regard to the future climate change. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 31 1.3.1.2. General recommendations 1.3.1.2.1. Elaboration of regionalized climatic estimation at high definition spatial It seems unavoidable to establish a scientific partnership between the DMN and the DR, in order to provide evolution scenarios of the extremes from, as far as possible, the dynamic downscaling techniques, for the reasons mentioned in the Activity 1. The use of output of regional models of the CORDEX program, based on the MCG of the CMIP5 should be given priority in order to obtain all the multi-models and realize the uncertainty of an inter-model. The DMN have available the technical and human capacities enabling to treat these data and to proceed to the calculation of a large range of climatic indications able to characterize the extreme phenomena of major interest for the studied sections. A working group gathering the DMN, the DR and the DGH could be organized in order to produce these evaluations and to provide the accurate input data for the analysis of the impacts. 1.3.1.2.2. Decision support tool for the analysis and the anticipation of the climatic risks In parallel of the hazards evaluation, the Engineering recommends to invest the field of anticipation support tool and decision support tool, regarding the risks related to the climate change. These tools should allow to shed light on the stages of planning but also the preparation of the reaction in crisis situation. The recommendations are of two types :  To develop the type SIG tools, capable of giving a repo rt on the different components’ vulnerability of the infrastructures sensitive to exceptional meteorological phenomena. The tools could be developed in the sections, or sub-sections with high stakes. They could allow to integrate a digital and easily viewable format for the administrators of the acquired information on the critical point of the network, as well as the major sources of vulnerability. Being based on the critical values mentioned before, they could enable to inform on the answer of the road infrastructure at an event of a given intensity and to anticipate the corresponding counter.  To apply the analysis methods of proven risks in the field of road infrastructure. At an international level, there are many methodological references enabling to lead probabilistic analysis of risks and to organize the different sections of a road section according to the vulnerability grade to some kinds of hazards. The methods generally define the associated risk to an extreme climatic phenomenon with its probability of occurrence and the severity of the caused damages, approached, most often, in terms of human and/or economic loss. An example of this type of tool is the RIMAROCC method, elaborated in 2010 by a european technical consortium (Road ERAnet). RIMAROCC allow to objectivize the hazard risks on the road infrastructures, from a multicriteria analysis based on three major measurement :  The exposure of the infrastructure to the climatic threats (hazards) ;  The sensitivity, which changes according to the intrinsic characteristics of the infrastructure and its environment ;  The consequences of the risk, in terms of human and economic loss. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 32 1.3.1.2.3. To adopt a climatic prism and to adapt the infrastructures to the uncertainties If it is possible, and desirable, to improve the precision of the climatic estimations and, finally, the evaluation of the impacts of the climate change resorting, in particular, to the described methods and tools, it will be illusory to think that they will allow to totally eliminate the inherent uncertainties, about the modelisation of the climate and its impacts. There is no information absolutely perfect and certain about the climate. So it matters to develop the care of the administrators for a « culture of uncertainty » and to help them to integrate a new order in their decision-making process. Indeed, the uncertainty should not be an excuse to inaction. It is possible to prepare by adopting, in particular, some action principles :  To adopt an adaptative management of the infrastructures, taking care not to decide prematurely of the irreversible step. The climate change is a dynamic and continuous process, and any action of adaptation fits into a climatic context particularly uncertain and unstabilised. Therefore the adaptation is not a one-time action aiming at passing from a stable situation to another stable situation. A good care of favouring, in the conception and adaptation of the infrastructures, the flexible and reversible strategies, in opposition to solutions involving important investments, which no one could ensure the effectiveness, in case of evolutions more pronounced than expected (example : it may seem imprudent to build protective structure calibrated on the most unfavorable climatic future, which it will be difficult to make evolve in case of a different evolution of the storm phenomena would happen).  To favour the actions called «no-regrets », that is the ones which will prove to be beneficial independently of the evolution of the climate or the extent of its change. Finally these actions do not imply costs which will prove to be useless if the climate estimations were partly incorrect (under-estimation or overestimation). The treatment of disorders and technical deficiency in the current conception of the infrastructures typically falls under this category.  To take into account the time deadline of the impacts and actions to apply. In front of questions such as « do we have to act as of now ? », or « can we wait for the estimations to improve or for the changes to begin to be apparent ? », that the administrators ask, the answers are complex. In a general way, we should begin to prepare to the climate change as of now, but it should be done progressively, gradually, setting priorities. The adaptative management is an imperative. This a progressive adaptation mode resting on the application of flexible measures, regularly assessed and corrected, as the scientific knowledge develop, and as the climatic conditions reveals itself. In the field of road infrastructures, it means to define, beforehand, many paths of adjustment, which take into account contrasting climatic scenarios, and which costs and profits had previously been estimated. This also requires to build indicators, allowing to decide the gradual deployment of the identified adaptation measures, when, in the future, some vulnerability thresholds are exceeded, systematically or irreversibly. However, when the uncertainties about the future changes are too high, or the knowledge about the risks are too low, it is, sometimes, preferable to differ the adaptation, in the meantime to have available a more reliable information, and to concentrate on the treatment of the deficiencies and bad practice observed, independently of the climate change. This is what is advised in this study. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 33 1.3.2. Technical recommendations concerning the hydrologic and hydraulic risks 1.3.2.1. The principles and calculation methods 1.3.2.1.1. Pluviometric parameters From the analysis of the studies provided, it stands out that the definition of pluviometric parameters is very summary and does not constitute a priority for the design offices. Indeed, they are satisfied with only the data from former studies. In this way, no actualization of former chronicles, nor investigation to take an inventory of relevant information on the extreme rains are carried out. In regard to this analysis, and knowing the pluviometric parameters are important input data for the estimation of design rate, we advise three types of recommendations for the definition of pluviometric parameters :  A local approach. This approach is to be favoured for the one-time studies, in attendance of at least a measuring post representing a substantial number of years of observation, in regard to the chosen reference return period. For this approach, the recommendations are the following :  verification and critical analysis of the origin of the pluviometric data ;  minimum length of the chronicle = 25% of the reference return period ;  systematical actualization of the chronicles ;  for the statistic adjustments :  estimation of the quantiles of return period ≤ 10 years : the different available adjustment rules give comparable results if there is a chronicle of at least 10 years of measure available ;  estimation of the extreme quantiles of return period ≥ 100 years : the exponential and Gumbel’s rules should be banned, particularly when one or many exceptional values stand out of the other observations, because they underestimate the quantiles. It is preferable to use the GEV rules (Generalized Extreme Value distribution) or the GP rule (Generalized Pareto distribution).  A regional approach. This approach should be favoured for the studies related to the important road sections (many tens of km) and the regional studies (for example the definition of the hydrologic parameters). It consists in resting on a more important number of pluviometric posts, which consists in increasing the size of the analysis sample by enlarging the spatial field of observation and analyzing simultaneously the observation of the different posts of measure on a homogeneous pluviometric area.  A partnership with the DMN (Direction of the National Meteorology) and/or other organisms (universities, research laboratories,..........) in order to develop the knowledge of extreme pluviometric events :  Inventory of remarkable pluviometric events, observed in Morocco ;  Densification of the network of the measure posts ;  Studies of historical events. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 34 1.3.2.1.2. The estimation methods of flood discharge  We offer to limit the number of methods. Indeed, it seems favourable to apply only one method, for which the choice of parameters will be finely analyze and justified, rather than applying many methods whose parameters were not subjected to blocking and/or verification. In this way, for the smaller watersheds of a surface < 20 km², we advise the application of a rational formula, whereas fort the watersheds > 20 km², we prescribe the use of regional formulas, scaled on the observations from the hydrometric stations.  Actualization of the hydrologic parameters by homogeneous pluviometric area. Indeed, for all the empirical formulas, the choice of parameters is determining in the flow calculation. In this way, the choice of parameters to use in the formula should be subjected of a blocking with one or many gauged similar basins. Indeed, most of the formulas currently used have been defined in different locations in Morocco, with parameters, which could be out of date today.  For the application of the rational formula, we prescribe to take into account the variable run-off coefficient in relation to the return period. Indeed, the run-off coefficient varies with the rain intensity, but this variation differs according to the permeability and the soil retention degree forming the watershed.  Finally, as for the extreme pluviometric events, we offer to develop the knowledge of the historical flood rising, via the inventory of remarkable events (rises of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014, .......) going along with calculations of the historical flood rising flow, in the right of the counted vulnerable areas. 1.3.2.1.3. The definition of hydraulic development Based on the fact that, currently, the offered measures, concerning the reinstatement of the superficial runoff, consist in replacing systematically the existing structures by new works, we prescribe to make a diagnosis of the hydraulic functioning of the existing structures, in order to define the most adapted technical solution, from a technical and economical point of view :  Replacing the existing structures ;  Strengthening of the ends upstream/downstream ;  Setting up a new structure in parallel with an existing one. 1.3.2.2. River hydraulics : 1.3.2.2.1. Case of wadi crossing The wadi crossings, encountered on the 4 road sections, are carried out whether with bridges called unsinkable or with structures called sinkable such as bridges or raft. THE HYDRAULIC RISKS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT  The logjam (floating obstruction) The consequences of the accumulation of floating fragments are the following :  Significative reduction of the wet section and of the capacity of the structures ; Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 35  Significative heightening of the speed around the abutments and the piles which cause phenomena of scouring able to drag away the decline of the structure ;  Extra horizontal thrust force against the structure ;  Risk of wave in the upstream, in case of breach in the dam, caused by an accumulation of floating fragments.  The evolution phenomena of the wadi morphology  The upright mobility of the beds (evolution of the movable bottom) . In this way, it is important to define the depth of the scouring, which correspond to the height on which these phenomena occur (height to bottom disrupted) ;  The mobility of bed plans ; definition of the space of the mobility of the bed (loitering space) and definition of the strategy of the wadi crossing (crossing of the totality of the loitering space or bed fixing on the outskirts of the crossing). THE PRELIMINARY TECHNICAL STUDIES Before listing the technical recommendations to apply for the conception of the crossing structures of the wadis, it is first necessary to define the technical studies to carry out which should be applied either to design the new crossing structures (new-build structure), or to repair the damages caused by the floods (actions on the existing structures). The table below summarizes the principal technical recommendation for each kind of structures. Case of crossing the wadis Proposed actions - Base the low walls up to the unsourable ground level - When the unscourable layer (substratum) is in great depth : realisation of low walls with flexible materials The rafts like gabions - Setting up at the immediate downstream of the raft a mat of gabions or rip-raps - The submersible bridges present an interest only if the conditions of foundation are good and the scouring little important The submersible bridges - In unscourable site or in attendance of substratum at The technical shallow depth : to solidly anchor the foundations until recommendations the level of unscourable substratum, - Implementation of the lateral beacons Rafts and submersible bridges - Implementation of warning signs - Plan the release of a minimum air draught between the water level estimdated during the flooding of the project and the lower vein of the lower surface of the Insubmersible bridges road structure - Set up the protective devices of the supports - Plan, if necessary the protection of the access backfill in flood plain Table 9 : The main technical recommendations – Case of crossing the wadi Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 36 1.3.2.2.2. Case where the road platform goes along a wadi : fluvial erosion THE RISK INCURRED BY THE ROAD When a road platform goes along a wadi and is situated in floodplains or at the outskirts of them, there are some risks, according on one hand to the stability of the banks of the wadi, and on the other hand, the stability of the backfill under the action of the water. The erosion phenomena of the banks of a wadi are likely to cause important disorders at the level of the road backfill, when this one is situated at the outskirts of the bank or when the embankment of the backfill is situated on the crest of the bank (case encountered on the 4 studied road sections). Indeed, on account of the plan progression of the bank, it will cause either the decline of the road backfill, or landslide. THE TECHNICAL STUDIES AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS TO APPLY In order to define the pertinent technical solutions to apply for the protection of the road backfills going along the wadi, it is first necessary to define the technical studies to carry out to conceive the adapted strengthening solutions. These studies have to include the 3 components which are the environmental engineering, the hydraulics and the geotechnics. The table below summarizes the technical studies and the conceivable technical solutions. Proposed actions The studies of environmental - Diagnosis of the causes of the bank degradations engineering - Analysis of the stability of the bed and banks - morphological study : analysis of the mobility of the Preliminary beds in plan, long and profile The hydraulic studies studies - morphodynamic study : characterisation of the erosion and scouring phenomena - characterisation of the geological formations, by the The geotechnical studies means of a ground recognition, if necessary - protection by vegetable techniques The technical solutions to strengthen - protection by mineral techniques teh banks - combined protection (vegetable techniques + mineral Technical techniques) recommendations - Setting up anti-erosive mat with or without The technical solutions to strengthen vegetalisation the backfill in floodplain - Setting up of gabions mats - Setting up of rip-raps Table 10 : Technical studies and main technical recommendations – Case going along a wadi Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 37 1.3.2.3. The road sanitation The road sanitation concerns the following parts :  The reinstatement of the external superficial runoff to the road platform. It should be noted that in the part of road sanitation, only the hydraulic structures of crossing not considered as road structure, that is to say with an opening < 3 m, are taken into account. On the other side, the crossing structures are considered as road structures and are treated in the chapter before, pertaining to the crossing of the wadis ;  The collection and the evacuation of the superficial waters in the road right-of-way, called thereafter « sanitation of the road platform » ;  The collection and evacuation of the internal water, that is to say the road drainage. THE REINSTATEMENT OF THE EXTERNAL SUPERFICIAL RUNOFF TO THE ROAD PLATFORM For the existing crossing structures of the Chaaba and the hydraulic crossing structures dealing with the evacuation of the road rain waters under the road, we offer to adopt a specific approach. Indeed, the existing hydraulic structures have not always been designed according to the rules : undersizing and/or lack of protective device. Some existing structures present consequently risks for the durability of the road, during important or exceptionally rainy events. It is out of question to reconsider all the existing structures, but to check in a first phase their hydraulic functioning and to define, in a second phase, the measures to be taken to improve the runoff conditions and/or allow the transit of higher flow than the ones taken into account during the design of the structure, while guaranteeing the durability of the road platform. The table below summarizes the offered approach and the technical recommendations. Proposed actions Step 1 : Control of the hydraulic Setting up of preliminary studies functioning of the existing structures Reemplacement of the existing crossing hydraulic The proposed Step 2 : Choice of the construction structure, by a new structure or the conservation of the approach scenario preserved existing structure and construction in the right of the surroundings of the existing structure Step 3 : Definition of the measures to Detailed studies of the construction apply - Setting up a protective device of the backfills adjoined to the structure The technical recommendations for the protection of the adjoining backfills to - Setting up, if necessary, of a structure of drumming or the structure (upstream and an improvement of the existing drumming downstream) - In attendance of high drops betweekn the end of the The technical structrure and the drain : construction of a water descent recommendations such as a waterfall - Setting up a mat anti-erosive, with or without The technical recommendations for the vegetalisation protection of the road bund, in the case of overflow on the road - Setting up a gabions mat Table 11 : Suggestion for the protection of the backfill Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 38 THE SANITATION AND THE ROAD DRAINAGE The table below summarizes the technical recommendations to apply to assure a collection and evacuation of superficial water and internal waters to the platform in the road right-of-way. Type of network of Section The recommendations collection and evacuation Setting up the networks of crest of clearing bund in the following cases : Networks of the crest of clearing - if there is a significative external watershed, which runoff is bund oriented towards the clearing, - and if it is necessary to protect the clearing bund from the runoff Networks of base of the clearing Systematical setting up bund Sanitation of the Setting up the network of the crest of the backfill bund only to Networks of crest of backfill bund evacuate the water of the platform in a privileged point, in the right road platform of specific sensitive area to the water inlets Setting up a network at the base of the backfill in the following cases : - in attendance of a significative external watershed which runoff is Networks of base of the backfill oriented to the backfill bund, bund - at the end of the networks of the crest of backfill bund, - at the end of the crossing hydraulic structures in absence of drain, - when the vague runoff are susceptible to damage the lower bottoms Road sanitation Deep ditch or draining trench* Necessity to define in dialogue with geotechnical engineer * major drain devices Table 12 : Recommendations related to the sanitation and the road drainage Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 39 1.3.2.4. The maintenance THE STAKES The maintenance of the sanitation network of roads and crossing hydraulic structures enables :  To maintain in good working condition all the structures of the network ;  To create or modify some structures to adapt them to the new obligations of the site (problems of water stagnation,………). The maintenance makes durable the allowed investment during the design and commit the administrator’s responsibility ; he is the guarantor of the respect of the following stakes :  The security of the road user;  The upkeep of the viability conditions ;  The durability of the road infrastructure. THE MAINTENANCE VISITS Two kinds of visits can be distinguished :  The periodic visits : these visits should be done at least once every year, completely ;  The occasional visits after every significant flooding. These visits have the purpose to determine, as the case may be, the maintenance and/or repair works to carry out. THE MAJOR MAINTENANCE SERVICES Nature of Type of inspections during the Type of intervention structures periodical maintenance visits - capacity of the ditch and state of - cleaning the ditch Ditches congestion - mower the vegetation - release of the end of the structure : cleaning and - State of obstruction of the structure and removal of materials the bed in the immediate upstream and downstream - flushing and cleaning of the crossing Crossing hydraulic structures - repair of the waterproofness and the structure of the - State of work of civil engineering work - Presence or no of localised erosion and/or - setting up protective devices scouring phenomena Table 13 : Maintenance of the sanitation structures OFFER OF THE CREATION OF A TECHNICAL GUIDE Because of the stakes of the maintenance of the road sanitation network, we suggest the preparation of a technical guide related to the observation, the maintenance and the using of the road sanitation. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 40 1.3.3. Technical recommendations regarding the geotechnical and pavement risks The diagnosis made by the Engineering brought to light a set of geological, or of pavement, disorders, which causes could vary from one site to another. At this stage of the study, it is not possible to offer a proper solution for each site, in preparation to solve on one hand the observed disorders, and on the other hand, to value the cost of its implementation, and this resting only on the field visits done. In this way, apart from the array of strengthening solutions suggested in the following chapters, the Engineering insists on the following points :  The importance of in-depth studies to be started by the DPETL, in order to have available precise input ;  In case of development of the study directly by the companies, the MOA must demand the development of technical studies by the company. To avoid the design or realization errors, it is advised to resort to an external control, carried out by an authorized control desk, and a technical audit by experts, during the project realization in order to avoid that the applied strengthening to be badly performed or inappropriate for the disorders to be treated. The geotechnical disorders spotted during the activity 1, concern the landslide, the rocky instabilities, the erosion of the alluvial layers and the gully erosion. For each disorder, first of all, a presentation of different types and causes of instabilities is performed, then follow a presentation of the strengthening solutions.  For the landslide, the strengthening methods of the ground are classified in four categories and the study lists the solutions with resisting elements at the base of the embankment, with geometrical, drainage and water management modifications as well as the vegetation.  For the gully erosion, we present a study allowing to establish the basis for the application of vegetalisation technics in the future. The types of disorders of the pavement are numerous and complex according to the type of pavement, and may have different origins. In this chapter, there is description of this problematic adapted to the encountered problems during the performed visits. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco Final Report 41 1.3.4. Conclusion During the field visits, the Engineering noted that some disorders remain, even if they have been the target to many interventions, without resolving completely the problem. These disorders are often located in unfavourable contexts : mountain range, unstable slopes, water-sensitive geological formations and their permanent solution can prove to be complex. On one hand, appropriate solutions should be found, from a technical point of view, with the necessary preliminary studies. On the other hand, the array of possible technical solutions should be known, but also the most advantageous solution from a technico-economic point of view, through a « cost-profit » analysis. The encountered limitations during the realization of the study did not allow us to go further in our considerations, the proposition of an array of technical solutions and the identification of these which could be economically more advantageous, has not been possible, in a general way. In fact, the objective of this study does not consist in defining the list of works to be done on the 4 road sections, but to define the recommendations to adapt the road infrastructure. Besides, as indicated in the report, the scenario choice of the adjustment is made after the preliminary studies, which are not the object of this mission. However, it can be noted that some preliminary studies require a topographic study or specific soil tests. Our recommendations to adapt the infrastructures have been divided in many steps :  Detailed characterization of the vulnerability of the road section, according to the proposed methodology of activity 1 ;  Hierarchization of the disorders according the the methodology proposed in chapter Erreur ! Source du renvoi introuvable. of this report ;  Technical recommendations : the input data, the preliminary studies as well as the technical studies are necessary in order to determine in most of the cases the best solution from a technical point of view. The estimation of the cost of each solution depends, for the most part, on the localization of the structure. The experience of the DRETL/DPETL through the analysis of the DCE of the companies remains the best source of information. However, this report gives a brief estimation of the cost of some advised recommendations ;  Analysis cost-profit : the analysis cost-profit depend also of historical data, for the estimation of closing days (unknown data) or the estimation of each DEPTL according to its available averages to perform some repairs. As an example, some road structures which fell down remains in ruins since 7 years, while the road is still functioning (apart from the flooding periods). How much time, in days, should it be closed, in this case ? Does it depend on the structure or on the ability of the DRETL /DPETL to make the repairs ? Otherwise, as well as adapting the most vulnerable infrastructures, the attention should be drawn on the necessity of a correct maintenance. Indeed, the lack of maintenance can cause the dysfunction of a well designed and built structure, and can therefore lead to important disorders. The last point which should be underlined is the absence of awareness-raising policy, of public alert, and of markings as well as the education of the users. Adaptation of roads to climate risk and climate change in Morocco