Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Central Asia | Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Specific Investment Loan | FY 2011 | Seq No: 10 | ARCHIVED on 14-Jun-2017 | ISR28462 | Implementing Agencies: Tajikhydromet, Kyrgyzhydromet, Ministry of Finance Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:26-May-2011 Effectiveness Date:11-Nov-2011 Planned Mid Term Review Date:06-Oct-2014 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:17-May-2014 Original Closing Date:31-Aug-2016 Revised Closing Date:30-Jun-2018 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) is to improve the accuracy and timeliness of hydromet services in Central Asia, with particular focus on Kyrgyz Republic and Republic of Tajikistan. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Component A: Strengthening regional coordination and information sharing.:(Cost $8.70 M) Component B: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Kyrgyz Republic.:(Cost $6.00 M) Component C: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Republic of Tajikistan.:(Cost $13.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  High  High Implementation Status and Key Decisions 6/14/2017 Page 1 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) The project plays an important role in setting up a platform for better collaboration, information sharing and capacity building among four Central Asian National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (CA NMHSs). Modernization of the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tashkent (WMO RSMC Tashkent), along with introduction of numerical weather prediction (NWP), has led to improved quality and resolution of hydrometeorological services, as well as overall improvement of the technical and organizational capacity of the NMSSs in obtaining, storing and exchanging information. Improved and automated forecasting verification methodology developed under the Project has enabled NHMSs to use a common methodology for comparing results. The methodological guidelines contribute to a more objective and comparable assessment of forecast accuracy between countries, which is one of the main indicators of the success in implementation of the Project. As a result of participation in numerous training activities including practical seminars, regional workshops, internships, as well as local trainings held directly in the operational units of the NMHSs, national specialists have significantly improved their professional skills. Kyrgyzhydromet and Tajikhydromet have made significant progress in strengthening their institutional capacity and in implementing Project activities. The Project has supported preparation business development plans for these two agencies, which target institutional transformation to become fully functioning modern and cost-effective hydromet services, including restoration (currently under implementation) and sustainable operations of modern observation networks. The Parliament of the Kyrgyz Republic is in the process of approving and the Parliament of Tajikistan has approved amendments to the national Acts on “Hydrometeorological Activity”, which further strengthen the responsibilities and mandates of these two agencies. The annual budget of these two agencies has been doubled since the implementation of this Project, which further supports long-term sustainability, service delivery and retaining of qualified staff. The management of the two agencies acknowledges that staff capacity is being strengthened through the Bank’s on-going technical assistance, advice, training and joint field visits during project implementation. The contracts to rehabilitate and upgrade the observation networks are being implemented smoothly. 6/14/2017 Page 2 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 6/14/2017 Page 3 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 6/14/2017 Page 4 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 6/14/2017 Page 5 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  Moderate  Moderate Macroeconomic  --  Moderate  Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Substantial  Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program  --  High  High Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  High  High Fiduciary  --  Moderate  Moderate Environment and Social  --  Low  Low Stakeholders  --  Substantial  Substantial Other  --  --  -- Overall  --  High  High Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Increased accuracy of river flow forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM: 71% KgHM: 85% KgHM: 85% Value KgHM 62% TjHM 64% TjHM: 75% TjHM:75% TjHM: 80% Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 Comments 6/14/2017 Page 6 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) These are averages of 1-month forecasts taken during vegetation season, every month between April and September of the year. Data are for Kyrgyz and Tajik Hydromets only, since they are the ones the project is supporting in this area. PHINDPDOTBL  Increased accuracy and timeliness of basic weather forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 76% for KgHM and 66% for TjHM KgHM: 78% KgHM: 93% KgHM: 85% Value TjHM: 71% TjHM: 80% TjHM: 85% Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 Comments Due to introduction of the COSMO visualization and calculation system into Kyrgyzhydromet’s production, the accuracy of forecasts has significantly increased and is now 93% for 1-3 days. Application of these instruments also led to (a) increasing the period of time for which weather forecasts are issued and (b) producing detailed forecasts for 4-5 days (88% accuracy) and consulting forecasts for 6-7 days (in the past, detailed weather forecasts were issued only for 1-3 days and consulting forecasts for 4-5 days). A slight decrease in the accuracy of weather forecasts in Tajikhydromet in 72 hours is due to the fact that during the winter and spring seasons there are severe and unstable weather conditions in the mountainous and high-altitude regions, and the COSMO model is not well adapted to these conditions. In addition, incomplete data is being received from automatic stations at present time. In this particular case, the decline in the forecast accuracy is due to a sharp decrease in accuracy for the Murgab point (3576 m altitude) - 69%. In general, the weather accuracy for the whole country excluding Murgab is 84% and is 80% including Murgab. PHINDPDOTBL  Timeliness of weather forecast data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1. Timeliness of weather 1. Timeliness of forecast data: weather forecast data: Kyrgyz Kyrgyz Hydromet: 3.82 KgHM: 2.80 KgHM: 3.81 Hydromet: Tajikhydromet -4.26 Value Tajikhydromet - 2. User satisfaction: TjHM: 2.90 TjHM: 4.26 2. User Kyrgyz Hydromet: 3.78 satisfaction: Tajikhydromet -4.3 Kyrgyz Hydromet: Tajikhydromet - 6/14/2017 Page 7 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Date 17-Jun-2016 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 29-Jun-2018 Comments No further user satisfaction surveys have been performed since the last ISR. There is a recognized bias in reporting from Tajikistan ("signs of the social desirability and an attempt to represent NHMS activities in the best possible light"). Overall Comments Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 4) Increased institutional strength and sustainability of Kyrgyzhydromet (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM new regulations and operational guidelines Issuance of the developed in government decree on line with new the business concept, development plan has modernized led to improvements in KgHM prepared a list of observation staff incentives and operational guidelines infrastructure development of staff necessary for operations and capacity; increased in light of modernized technologies ownership by the infrastructure; the terms technical departments of reference to draft Existing legal structure, Kyrgyzhydrome of Kyrgyzhydromet these is being operating procedures and t prepared a list during supervision of developed. staffing are inadequate to of operational the hydromet meet KgHM mission#s guidelines observation network “Fee-for-service” Value needs. necessary for upgrade; and arrangements have work in light of increased accuracy of been piloted in few Investment and O&M the modernized weather sectors. needs far exceed KgHM infrastructure; forecasting.New budgets. the terms of regulations and KgHM budget is now reference are operational guidelines sufficient to cover O&M being developed in line with needs of regular developed new concept, operations. KgHM modernized regulations and observation operation infrastructure and guidelines fully technologies and fully functioning functioning “Fee-for- service” arrangements piloted in few 6/14/2017 Page 8 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) sectors KgHM budget sufficient to cover O&M needs of regular operations Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 3) Increased sustainability and strengthened performance of Tajikhydromet operations (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target New regulations and As a result of the new operational guidelines government resolution developed in line with to upgrade new concept, TjHM new Tajikhydromet’s modernized observation regulations and institutional status, the infrastructure and operational agency's operations technologies are fully guidelines and maintenance functioning. developed in budget as well as staff line with new salaries increased by “Fee-for-service” concept, 15%; staff capacity has arrangement piloted in modernized continued to improve. few sectors, in particular observation The amendment energy, agriculture, infrastructure proposed by housing and and Tajikhydromet to the transportation. For 5 technologies Existing legal structure, Act "on months of 2017, 7 operating procedures and Hydrometeorological contracts were signed TjHM staffing are inadequate to activity in Tajikistan" for about 4000 USD. regulations and Value meet TjHM mission needs. has been approved by operational Investment and O&M the Parliament on June In April 2017 TjHM guidelines fully needs far exceed TjHM 17, 2017. Along with requested the functional budgets. the new amendment Environmental the new pricing Protection Committee to "Fee-for- methodology and price submit the draft budget service" list for the pilot fee- of Tajikhydromet to the arrangement based special service Finance Ministry of piloted in a few approved by the taking into account the sectors Parliament. “Fee-for- allocation of additional service” arrangement funds for the O&M of the TjHM budget piloted in few sectors. upgraded observation sufficient to TjHM budget sufficient network. Currently, no cover O&M to cover o&M needs of additional funds for O & needs of regular operations M are needed. regular operations. Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 6/14/2017 Page 9 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 5) Increased reliability of climate data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Ability to Information on climate Ability to downscale Ability to downscale downscale to Value limited and of inadequate local scales for at least local scales for at least local scales for quality 70% of the country 90% of the country at least 90% of the country Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 100% of meteostations 13% of meteostations gauging main meteo gauging main meteo parameters. 35 parameters. Insatliation automated weather of the new equipment stations and 3 automatic are ongoing The plan is gauging stations are to install 100% of installed; installation and automated stations by commissioning works as Q4 of 2016. well as trainings of users are completed. At 44% of stream gauges present time, the reporting operational installed equipment is data. Restoration of the being tested. key hydromet 100% of observation network 92% of stream gauges meteostations and installation of reporting operational gauging main hydrological equipment data. Restoration of key meteo 13% of meteostations is ongoing. After works hydromet observation parameters gauging main meteo completion, water flow network posts, i.e. 11 parameters measurements will be gauging stations is 70% of stream carried out on 88% of completed. Employees gauges Value 44% of stream gauges hydroposts. Works will of Kyrgyzhydromet and reporting reporting operational data be completed by Q4 of PCU carried out operational 2016 acceptance tests at the data 70% stream gauges gauging stations. Users measuring discharges 70% stream gauges (including the gauging 85% stream measuring discharges. stations observers, gauges Number of heads of supervising measuring meteorological stations and staff of discharges observations per profile divisions of parameter: As the Kyrgyzhydromet’s main number of observations office) have received the are upgraded and relevant training. automated to 33 sites, the system will be able 90% stream gauges to generate data about measuring discharges. 10 minutes transmitted In a testing mode It will hourly, compared to be 100% once the only 3 stations Central Dispatch System generating data every (CDS) software is 3 hours, but installed. Once the CDS transmission is spotty. software is launched, 6/14/2017 Page 10 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 100% of information will be received on time. Number of meteorological observations per parameter: As the number of observations are upgraded and automated to 33 sites, the system will be able to generate data about 10 minutes transmitted hourly, compared to only 3 stations generating data every 3 hours, but transmission is spotty. Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 86% 98% Value 86.00 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 Comments Once the CDS software is launched, 100% of information will be received on time. PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 90% of meteostations gauging main 65 % of meteostations 83.3% of meteostations 19% of meteostations meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo parameters parameters parameters parameters 50% of stream 44% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges Value 16% of stream gauges gauges reporting operational reporting operational reporting operational data reporting data data operational 49% stream gauges data 68% stream gauges 60% stream gauges measuring discharges measuring discharges measuring discharges 90% stream gauges measuring 6/14/2017 Page 11 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 70.00 96.00 92.00 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 1): Improved access to national and regional numeric weather prediction products to all CA countries (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 13 x 13 km every 6 hours The calculation results based on ftp are being transmitted for the regional grid of resolution 13.2x13.2 km 20 x20 km every 3 using the adapted hours COSMO technology in Uzhydromet and other The COSMO-CA NHMS CAs. 100x250 km transmitted model is being 13x13 km every Value every 12 hours launched in 6 hours The system of local Uzhydromet in a calculations for testing mode (13 km. COSMO-CentralAsia-2 issue of forecasts - 6 with a resolution of 2x2 and 24 hours). km is organized. The COSMO-CA-2 technology software was developed for further installation at Uzhydromet Date 10-Dec-2015 28-Oct-2016 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018 6/14/2017 Page 12 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 2): Established platform for integration of four NHMSs in CA (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Common methodology to verify hydromet Common methodology forecasting accuracy to verify hydromet developed and used. forecasting accuracy developed and Activities towards used.Activities towards implementation of the implementation of the distance learning system distance learning on knowledge sharing system on knowledge and learning is ongoing. sharing and learning is ongoing. Guidelines Guidelines and and approaches to approaches to regional regional procedures for procedures for emergency prevention emergency prevention agreed by CA NHMS in agreed by CA NHMS in 2014 2014. In Cholpon-Ata Lake Regional Observatory of In Cholpon-Ata Lake approach Kyrgyzhydrometon the Observatory of adopted in new regional training Kyrgyzhydromet, a new hydromet Lack of agreed regional center on lakes and regional training center forecasting and approaches on knowledge water reservoirs was on lakes and water decision- Value exchange and emergency established for CA reservoirs was making procedures specialists. established for CA mechanism for By December 2016, all specialists. regional issues activities related to formalized creation of the regional By December 2016, all among the four system to access to activities related to NHMSs in CA online information creation of the regional products based on system to access to satellite data in online information Kazakhstan, products based on Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan satellite data in and Uzbekistan will be Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, completed. Tajikistan and Implementation of the Uzbekistan was be cascading method of completed. severe weather forecasting (SWFDP- Implementation of the CA) will be completed cascading method of in the beginning of severe weather 2017. forecasting (SWFDP- CA) was completed in the beginning of 2017. Date 10-Dec-2015 28-Oct-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2018 6/14/2017 Page 13 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Component B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 3) Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 2 million pages Value 0.00 2,065,000 pages 800,000 completed Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Component C Tajikistan, IRI 4): Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1,130,000 pages (and 1,130,500 pages - 4,000 weather maps Value 0.00 scanning of data is 800,000 and 400,000 complete documents) Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2018 Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P120788 IDA-49340 Effective USD 5.10 5.10 0.00 3.70 0.95 73% P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective USD 8.70 8.70 0.00 5.33 2.59 61% P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective USD 0.90 0.90 0.00 0.59 0.27 65% P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective USD 6.00 6.00 0.00 5.55 0.00 92% P120788 TF-99848 Effective USD 7.00 7.00 0.00 5.61 1.39 80% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P120788 IDA-49340 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 6/14/2017 Page 14 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective 26-May-2011 12-Jul-2011 12-Jan-2012 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective 26-May-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 P120788 TF-99848 Effective 13-Jul-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 28-Jan-2016 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 6/14/2017 Page 15 of 15 Public Disclosure Copy