For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CPS Data Country: Kyrgyz Republic CPS Year: FY13 CPS Period: FY14 – FY17 CLR Period: FY14 – FY17 Date of this review: October 16, 2018 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory WBG Performance: Good Good 3. Executive Summary i. This review of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Completion and Learning Review (CLR) covers the period of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), FY14-17, updated in the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) dated February 25, 2016. This CPS follows the Interim Strategy Note (ISN), FY12-13, and Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), FY07-10. ii. The Kyrgyz Republic is a lower middle-income country with a GNI per capita of $1,100 in 2016. It is a country with a land-locked and mountainous geography, and rich in mineral and water resources. GDP growth averaged 3.7 percent during the CPS period (2014-17), somewhat below the average during the previous four years (4.0 percent). Gold production and worker remittances have been significant drivers of growth, but are subject to volatility and do not lend themselves to sustained growth. Growth helped reduce poverty rates, from the recent peak of 38.0 percent in 2012 to 25.4 percent in 2015. Nevertheless, the country’s Human Development Index improved slightly from 0.656 in 2013 (ranked 125nd among 187 countries) to 0.664 in 2015 (ranked 120th among 188 countries). Inequality (the GINI Index) declined from 28.8 in 2013 to 26.8 in 2016, Policy effectiveness has been undermined by high levels of corruption and frequent changes in Government. Kyrgyz’s rank in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index deteriorated from 123rd of 167 in 2015 to 135th of 167 in 2017. During the CPS period, there were five different prime ministers. iii. The World Bank Group’s (WBG) CPS had three pillars (or focus areas): (i) public administration and public service delivery, (ii) business environment and investment climate, and (iii) natural resources and physical infrastructure. The CPS was aligned with the Government’s National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS), 2013-2017, specifically with NSDS objectives on public administration, judiciary, social services, financial and private sector development, agribusiness, exports, environmental protection/resource management, energy, transport, and urban development. These objectives were part of the NSDS broad focus on governance, state building, and economic development. WBG’s support was also aligned with a number of specific government programs (e.g., the Governance and Anti-Corruption Plan adopted in 2012). iv. At the beginning of the CPS period, total commitments were $373.4 million, with 24 Investment Project Financing (IPF) operations, including Additional Financing, and one regional operation. During the CPS period, total new commitments were $328.5 million, or 5.3 percent CLR Reviewed by: Panel Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator: Mauricio Carrizosa Jorge Garcia-Garcia Zeljko Bogetic Consultant, IEGEC Consultant, IEGEC Manager (acting), IEGEC Takatoshi Kamezawa, Senior Lourdes Pagaran Evaluation Officer, IEGEC Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group higher than the planned volume of $312.0 million. The new lending portfolio consisted of 14 new operations in the form of four Development Policy Financing (DPF) operations and 10 IPF operations, including Additional Financing, and two regional operations. More than 80 percent of new lending commitments were allocated to four areas: energy (29 percent), macro and trade (23 percent), water (18 percent), and transport (14 percent). Compared to the pre-existing portfolio, the new lending portfolio has allocated the largest share of IDA to energy where none was allocated before, a higher share for macro and trade (from 20 percent to 23 percent) in the form of three DPFs, less for urban/rural sector, and none for health and nutrition. IDA leveraged its assistance with 25 new trust fund operations amounting to $78.5 million, the largest of which was in the water sector ($38.0 million). However, many of the trust funded operations are small with an average size of $3.1 million. During the CPS period, IFC made net commitments of US$14.8 million, all in the financial sector. IFC approved 14 new AS projects amounting to $7.7 million of IFC funds, five of which were projects to improve the investment climate. IFC also supported a public and private partnership (PPP) and the development of the dairy sector. MIGA did not approve any guarantees. v. IEG rates the CPS development outcome as Moderately Unsatisfactory. On Focus Area I, there was little progress on establishing a robust system of public administration and reforming the judiciary while there was substantial progress on expanding access to, and increasing efficiency and quality of education, health and other public services. Specifically, while there was some progress on procurement, there was little or no progress on reducing graft or conflict of interest, or on improving access to the judiciary. There was an increased supply of infrastructure services at the village level in project areas, better results on health services, better quality of basic education, and significant improvements on pre-school education and emergency response times. However, social assistance coverage of the poor declined. On Focus Area II, there was some progress on financial sector and private sector development and limited progress on increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture. On Focus Area III, there was substantial progress in improving domestic and regional connectivity but less on international transport; and limited progress on energy security and exports, and on improving the management of agriculture, forestry and pasture resources. vi. IEG rates WBG performance as Good. The CPS design addressed well-identified development challenges and benefited from alignment with the government’s strategy and consultation with multiple stakeholders. The selected CPS objectives were aligned with the twin corporate goals. Overall, the CPS was selective in terms of focus areas, objectives and IDA interventions. The use of IPFs, DPOs and ASA, as well as IFC investments was appropriate to address investment and policy needs. Planned ASA activities covered most fronts, although the lack of a Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) and corruption diagnostics were notable gaps. The results framework had significant shortcomings. The CPS and PLR identified risks and mitigation measures adequately. At the PLR, adjustments were made to the program that reflected the evolving political landscape, enhanced attention to investment climate objectives, EU membership issues, and regional cooperation. During the CPS period, portfolio at exit performed less well than the ECA and Bank-wide averages. Notwithstanding efforts at portfolio consolidation, the active IDA portfolio did not perform well as measured by the percentage of projects at risk. However, the average disbursement ratio was higher compared to the ECA and Bank-wide averages. There was internal synergy between IDA and IFC, particularly in the business environment and investment climate focus area Government ownership evolved over time due to frequent changes in the political leadership. There were no major safeguard issues. INT reported two cases that were substantiated. vii. The CLR highlighted four lessons. First, improvements in governance require a long-term approach spanning several CPF periods. Second, overarching PSD reforms have greater impact than changes in specific doing business indicators and selective interventions through advisory programs. Third, ASA effectiveness can be enhanced through programmatic approaches and stronger communication and dissemination. Fourth, systemic portfolio issues can be easily addressed when there is strong commitment from the government and there are dedicated champions in the implementing agencies. For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group viii. IEG adds the following lessons: • First, it is critical to have a robust results framework, with clear links between CPS objectives, results and WBG interventions, to capture well the development effectiveness of the WBG’s country engagement. In the case of Kyrgyz Republic, more than half of the CPS objectives had multiple dimensions but the associated indicators did not sufficiently measure the achievement of the objectives. This is the case for Objectives 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7 where the indicators did not fully reflect the several dimensions of the objectives. Going forward, a more robust results framework is critical for ensuring that program results can be monitored effectively so as to inform the management of the country program. • Second, reducing corruption takes time, political will, commitment and sustained policy effort. In Kyrgyz Republic, it is likely to take several years, and the WBG can intensify efforts to help government achieve stronger results in this area. During the CPS period, WBG support on anti- corruption was based on the government’s 2012 Anti-Corruption plan and provided through the DPF program. The latter was less than successful in reducing corruption levels. Effectiveness in this area will require considerable capacity building and commitment on the part of the government. It will also require a detailed and actionable political economy analysis of grand corruption and the role of vested interests, as the SCD points out. This was missing from the ASA program. Accordingly, engaging in dialogue with the Government on actions derived from such an analysis will be critical to make significant inroads in supporting the government to address corruption. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. The CPS objectives were broadly congruent with the government’s National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS) and aligned with the NSDS pillars of state building and economic development. For example, the CPS objective to promote financial sector development was aligned with the NSDS objective to strengthen the financial sector. WBG’s support was also aligned with specific government programs including the Governance and Anti-Corruption Plan adopted in 2012. The CPS objectives also addressed significant development constraints, including corruption and connectivity. Corruption is a key constraint that impedes institutions from effectively pursuing development goals. The country’s landlocked and mountainous geography imposes high transports costs. The CPS Objective 1 (public administration) supported the Governance and Anti-Corruption Plan, although the CPS objective was not achieved, while objective 6 addressed connectivity issues. Other CPS objectives targeted significant development challenges in the country, including inadequate access to basic services, and barriers to financing and private sector growth. 2. Relevance of Design. Proposed interventions could be expected to contribute towards the achievement of the CPS objectives in most areas and contribute to the government’s NDSD goals and objectives. The CPS envisaged that the CPS objectives would be supported through the pre-existing portfolio and new lending. This would be complemented with trust-funded operations and through analytical work that would emphasize practical and problem-solving technical advice, versus broad- based analytical studies. The CPS also envisaged the use of annual DPF operations if the authorities maintained a satisfactory macroeconomic framework and reform implementation record, and more in the form of IPF if the annual DPF operations did not materialize. IFC’s contribution to achieving program results was expected in the second and third engagement areas by promoting private sector development. The program covered several capacity building activities, as appropriate for a country with significant capacity constraints. Planned ASA activities supported the CPS areas (e.g., social protection) and included integrative tasks (e.g., a poverty assessment). Planned coordination with the IMF sought to help maintain macro stability and mitigate external shocks. However, there was some disconnect between the CPS objectives, the associated outcomes, WBG interventions, as in the case of agriculture competitiveness. For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group Selectivity 3. The CPS was selective in terms of focus areas, objectives and indicators and number of interventions. Selected outcomes broadly covered areas where the Bank has comparative advantage (e.g., on community driven development and social protection). The CPS also applied selectivity in terms of having fewer projects and larger amounts per project. Indeed, average project size increased from $15.6 million for the pre-existing portfolio to $23.5 million for new lending, and the number of approved projects declined from 24 in the pre-existing portfolio to 14 during the CPS period. At the end of CPS period, the number of IDA financed operations was reduced to 11 active operations. However, the portfolio consolidation did not apply to trust funded operations. During the CPS period, the number of TF operations increased from 17 to 25 and the average project size remained unchanged at $3.1 million. The greater selectivity through consolidation of the portfolio during the CPS period was envisaged to reduce the burden on limited government capacity and Bank Group staff resources. The CPS did not articulate how its selectivity reflected a division of labor with other donors. Alignment 4. The CPS objectives were broadly aligned with the 2013 corporate twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity goals. The CPS did not target poverty and shared prosperity directly. However, the proposed interventions (basic services, MSMEs, and small farm productivity) could contribute to the twin goals. The CPS maintained focus on key areas to reduce poverty (e.g., rural infrastructure) and progress on these areas could help raise incomes for the poorest 40 percent of the population (shared prosperity). Other interventions (on the investment climate, access to finance, and energy) could also help raise the incomes of the bottom 40 percent by increasing overall economic growth. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 5. This assessment follows the IEG-WBG Shared Approach on Country Engagement and considers the degree to which CPS objectives (designated as outcomes in the PLR results matrix) were achieved. Focus Area I: Public Administration and Public Service Delivery. 6. Focus Area I had two objectives: (i) establish a robust system of public administration and reforming the judiciary, and (ii) expand access to, and increase the efficiency and quality of education, health, and other public services. 7. Objective 1: Establish a robust system of public administration and reforming the judiciary. This objective was supported through the FY14 DPO series (2), the FY03 Governance Technical Assistance (TA) project, the FY10 Public Finance Management Capacity Building Trust Fund (TF) grant, the FY09 Capacity Building for Economic Management IDA grant, and an FY13 Institutional Development Fund (IDF) grant for Capacity Building for Public Sector Internal Audit. ASA supporting this objective included an FY14 Programmatic Public Expenditure Review (PER), and FY14 and an FY16 non-lending technical assistance (NLTA) on Public Sector Reform Roadmaps. This objective had five indicators: • Building a meritocratic public administration, as measured by the World Economic Forum (WEF) score on favoritism in decisions of government. Kyrgyz’ ranking improved from 136 to 86th, compared to the target of 120, and the score improved from 2.2 to 2.8. Although the indicator refers to “score”, the baseline and target refers to “rank”. [Achieved]. For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group • Verification of declarations of conflict of interest by the Commission1. The Commission was not established during the CPS period; hence, the envisaged verification was not undertaken. [Not Achieved]. • Graft index (ratio of reported bribes for public services to total transactions). The CLR reports that the graft index was not calculated. Information from the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index indicates that Kyrgyz’ ranking deteriorated from 123rd of 167 in 2015 to 135th of 167 in 2017. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, Kyrgyz’ score for irregular payments and bribes indicator changed slightly from 2.6 of 7 in 2015 and 2.8 of 7 in 2017. [Not Achieved]. • Improving access to justice, as measured by World Justice Project Rule of Law Index – sub- indicator 7.1: “People can access and afford civil justice”. The 2017 score for Kyrgyz for this sub-indicator was 0.59, a deterioration from the 2013 baseline score of 0.64. The target was 0.7 in 2017. [Not Achieved]. • PEFA P1-19 score on competition, value for money and controls in procurement. This indicator was not measured as there was no updated PEFA assessment. Additional information provided by the CLR and verified by IEG, indicates that a new Public Procurement Law was adopted in line with international good practice, e-procurement is being used and a Complaint Review Commission was established in March 2016. The e-procurement portal provides information on current and past procurements. The information above suggests that some improvement in procurement competition may have taken place. Partially Achieved. 8. Three of the five indicators were not achieved, one was achieved and one was partially achieved. While there was progress in lowering favoritism, per the WEF score, this result could not be directly attributed to the WBG interventions since no WBG project supported or monitored this indicator. Overall, this objective is measured by composite indicators that are influenced by other factors and/or are not directly measuring the stated objective. On balance, IEG rates Objective 1 as Not Achieved. 9. Objective 2: Expand access to, and increase efficiency and quality of education, health, and other public services. This objective was supported through the FY07 Second Village Improvement Project (VIP) and its FY07 additional financing, the FY15 Third VIP, the FY16 Urban Development Project, the FY14 Kyrgyz Global Partnership for Education (GPE) TF project, the FY13 Sector Support for Education Reform project, the FY06 First Health and Social Protection project and its FY08 and FY11 Additional Financing , the FY13 Second Health and Social Protection project, the FY09 Second Rural Water Supply and Sanitation (RWSS) Project, the FY17 Sustainable Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project, and the FY11 TF grant from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery for the Coordination of Emergency Situations project. This objective was also supported through a FY14 Poverty Analysis, and a policy note on Minimum Living Standards and Alternative Methods for Social Transfers. This objective had seven indicators. • Increase in the number of villages with improved social and economic infrastructure. By 2015, 1,698 villages had access to improved social and economic infrastructure under the FY07 Second VIP project, compared to the target of 1500. [Achieved]. • Increased enrolment in the full-year pre-school program. Projects supporting this objective does not report on this indicator. Ministry of Economy statistics suggests that about 65 percent of the eligible population were enrolled in pre-school in 2017. The target was 70 percent [Mostly Achieved]. 1 This Commission was to be created under the proposed Law on Conflict of Interest, which has not yet been enacted at the time of this review. For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group • Mortality rate from cardiovascular disease (40-59 years, per 100 000). The mortality rate for 40-59-year-old declined to 295 in 2015 (from 310 in 2011), compared to the target of 287 in 2017. [Mostly Achieved]. • Reduced TB mortality rate. The IEG ICRR for the FY06 project reports that TB mortality declined to 6.7 in 2014, from 8.7 in 2011. The target was < 8 in 2016. The World Health Organization estimates for 2016 was 7.2. [Achieved]. • Share of social assistance spending on poverty-targeted programs: The CLR reports that spending on poverty-targeted programs increased from 18.5 percent to 32.3 percent. This information could not be verified. The IMF reports that the coverage of the poor by the social assistance system declined. [Not Achieved]. • Reduction of water-borne diseases in project areas. The incidence of waterborne diseases such as acute intestinal infections, viral hepatitis, and helminthic (worm) invasion in participating communities fell by an average of 62.5 percent between 2012 and October 2014. The target was reduction by 60 percent. [Achieved]. • Reduced average emergency response time. The CLR indicated that the average emergency response times in rural areas declined from 3 hours to 1 hours. This information could not be verified. Project data indicates that emergency response time declined from 1 hour to 40-30 minutes (with no period of reference) and other data (the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) reports that it declined by 20% (with no baseline or period of reference). The target was a reduction in response time by one hour. [Achieved]. 10. Six of seven indicators were achieved or mostly achieved, while one was not achieved. However, not all indicators cover all the dimensions of the objective. Indicator 1 measures access to social and economic infrastructure, indicator 2 measures access to primary education, indicators 3-4-6 measure quality of health services, and indicator 7 measures efficiency of other public services. While there is no indicator to measure quality of education, information from the World Economic Forum (WEF) suggests improvements in efficiency and quality of education. In addition, information from the WEF index of wastefulness of government spending improved from 2.4/7 in 2013 to 2.8/7 in 2016 which suggests that the overall efficiency of public services improved. The WEF indicator of primary education quality improved between 2013 and 201. On balance, IEG rates Objective 2 as Mostly Achieved. 11. Focus Area I is rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory. There was little progress on establishing a robust system of public administration and reforming the judiciary while there is substantial progress on expanding access to, and increasing efficiency and quality of education, health and other public services. 12. Focus Area II: Business Environment and Investment Climate. Focus Area II had two objectives: (i) promoting financial and private sector development, and (ii) increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture. 13. Objective 3: Promoting financial and private sector development. This objective was supported through the FY12 Financial Sector Development Project, the IFC projects with Micro- Finance Institutions (MFIs) and banks during FY14-FY17, the FY 10 Financial Markets Infrastructure Project, two FY14 Development Policy Operations, the FY12 Financial Sector Development Project, the FY 17 Financial Consumer Protection TA, and the FY17 Governance and Competitiveness DPO. IFC’s support comprised an FY15 loan to a bank supporting SMEs , IFC’s FY13 Central Asia Tax Project, and the Kyrgyz Investment Climate Project. This objective had six indicators. • Rise in volume of MSME loans provided by MFIs supported by IFC. Lending to MSMEs via MFIs and the bank supported by IFC increased by US$249 million (against the target of $200 million. Although the target was met, its attribution to IFC’s financial support is unclear for two reasons: First,credit growth is likely to have resulted from economic growth, independently of the IFC project. Second, total IFC loans in FY15 to an MFI and a bank For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group amounted only to US$5.5 million. IFC was only one of the funding sources for these financial institutions. [Achieved]. • Rise in yearly registrations in collateral registry: Registrations declined to 10,947, below the baseline of 42,000 and the target of 62,000. [Not Achieved]. • Increased private credit bureau coverage (percent of adults). Coverage increased from 24.6 percent in 2012 to 37 percent in 201, well above the target of 30 percent. [Achieved]. • Increase of "eligible deposits" as percent of GDP: The CLR reports that covered deposits increased to 12.6 percent in 2016. IEG could not verify the CLR information on eligible deposits. Progress in total deposits (reported in the ICRR) do not necessarily reflect progress in eligible deposits, as Kyrgyz’s Deposit Protection Law (Article 5) excludes several categories from being eligible.2 [Not Verified]. • Reduced tax compliance labor cost for businesses An IFC report estimates that compliance time declined by 15.8 percent and compliance cost declined by 16.7 percent between 2012 and 2014, for a representative sample of firms. This exceeded the target of 10 percent in real terms. However, the Doing Business data (2017), which covers large companies, reports that time to pay taxes changed insignificantly, from 226 hours in 2013 to 225 hours during 2014- 17, and the Doing Business “Distance to Frontier” estimate on taxes changed little during that period. Accordingly, additional evidence provided by the region suggests that declines in tax compliance costs exceeded the target for MSMEs but that there were limited or no cost reductions for large firms. Most firms in the Kyrgyz Republic are MSMEs. [Mostly Achieved]. • Decreased regulatory compliance cost and improved quality of business inspections in pilot agencies as measured by non-tax inspection compliance cost. The CLR reports that the number of inspection per business fell from 2.65 to 1.45 and the average cost of inspection was reduced from $182 to $2.5. Information from the World Economic Forum’s rating of the regulatory burden improved marginally from 3.2/7 to 3.3/7, suggesting some reduction in regulatory compliance costs. [Mostly Achieved]. 14. Two of the five indicators were achieved, two were Mostly Achieved, one was not achieved, and one could not be verified. Overall, there was partial progress on financial sector development (increased MSME lending and private credit bureau coverage) and some progress on private sector development (on tax and regulatory compliance costs). Attribution to WBG was unclear in some areas (e.g., MSME lending). On balance, IEG rates Objective 3 as Mostly Achieved. 15. Objective 4: Increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture. This objective was supported through the FY11 Agricultural Productivity Assistance Project (APAP) and the FY17 Integrated Dairy Productivity Improvement Project. This objective had two indicators. • Increase in the gross value of output for APAP target farms: Growth in Gross Value of output (GVO) for APAP target farms was 550 percent, in line with the target. The ICRR for APAP indicated that the methodology for calculating the GVO was not clear. [Achieved]. • Average weighted increase in crop yields for APAP target farms: Average weighted increase in crop yields for APAP target farms reached 218 percent, in line with the target. [Achieved]. 16. Both indicators reflect project level results. Given the small number of farms that the IDA project covered, there is no information on the scalability of this intervention. Gross value of output is an inadequate indicator of efficiency or competitiveness. On balance, IEG rates this objective as Partially Achieved. 17. IEG rates Focus Area II as Moderately Unsatisfactory. There was some progress in promoting financial and private sector development and limited progress on increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture. 2 See http://www.nbkr.kg/index1.jsp?item=1200&lang=eng For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group 18. Focus Area III: Natural Resources and Physical Infrastructure. Focus Area III had three objectives: (i) ensuring energy security and developing export potential, (ii) expanding domestic, regional, and international development transport connectivity, and (iii) improve the management of agriculture, forestry, mineral, pastureland, and water resources, including extension and other support services, for sustainable development. 19. Objective 5: Ensure Energy Security and Developing Export Potential. This objective was supported through the FY15 Electricity Supply Accountability and Reliability Improvement Project (ESARIP) and the FY15 Energy Sector DPO. This objective had three indicators. • Energy loss reduction in largest distribution company Severoelectro. Electricity losses in Severolectro distribution network fell to 14 percent in December 2017 (versus the target of 15 percent) from 22 percent in 2012. [Mostly Achieved]. • Increase in cash collection per kWh of electric energy generated. By 2015, cash collected per kWh of power supplied to the domestic market was 0.76 som/KWh, above the target of 0.64 som/KWh. [Achieved]. • Increase in cash collection per Gcal of generated heat at Bishkek combined heat and power (CHP): By 2015, cash collection per Gcal of generated heat at Bishkek CHP was 921.83 KGS/GCal, above the target of 598 som/GCAL and reflecting an 89.5 percent increase in real terms. [Achieved]. 20. The first indicator refers to only one (Severoelectro) of the four distribution companies in the Kyrgyz Republic, which accounts for about half of total consumption. Reduced losses contribute to energy security, but do not sufficiently measure it. Energy security3 did not improve. Additional information from the latest ISR for the ESARIP project reports a small increase in the duration of outages, from 21 hours per 1,000 customers in February 2014 to 22 hours in May 2017. Cash collected per KWH reflects the price of energy and collection efficiency, and hence say little about energy security or exports. On balance, IEG rates Objective 5 as Partially Achieved. 21. Objective 6: Expand domestic, regional, and international development transport connectivity. This objective was supported through the FY10 National Road Rehabilitation (Osh- Batken-Isfana) project and its Additional Financing (FY 11), the FY 14 Central Asia Road Links project, the Bishkek and Osh Urban Infrastructure (FY08) and an IDF grant to improve road quality management systems. This objective had three indicators: • Reduction of travel time along the project road sections in Batken Oblast. Travel time along the road sections declined from 68 in 2009 to 40 minutes in 2015, compared to the target of 60 minutes. [Achieved]. • Reduction in transport cost along project road sections in Batken Oblast. Transport costs for road users by car decreased from US$0.30 (per vehicle per km) to US$0.25 (against the target of US$0.27) on the Pulgon-Burgandy section (32 km), and from US$0.29 to US$0.27 on Nookat Pass (18 km) of the Osh-Batken-Isfana (OBI) road corridor. [Achieved] • Improved trade along the Osh-Batken-Isfana road through two border posts with Tajikistan. The volume of freight through Kyzyl-Bel/Guliston and Kairagach/Madaniyat border crossing points had declined from 500,000 to 400,000 tons, well below the target of 5.5 million tons. [Not Achieved]. 22. On balance, IEG rates Objective 6 as Mostly Achieved. 23. Objective 7: Improve the management of agriculture, forestry, mineral, pastureland, and water resources, including extension and other support services, for sustainable development . This objective was supported through the FY09 Second On-Farm Irrigation Project and its FY11AF, 3 Energy security is defined (International Energy Agency) as “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price. See https://www.iea.org/topics/energysecurity/whatisenergysecurity/. For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group the FY06 Water Management Improvement Project, the FY15 Pasture and Livestock Management Improvement Project, and three NLTA projects in the mining sector. This objective had four indicators. • Water distribution to farmers within 80 percent of the rehabilitated systems closely matches the crops’ irrigation water demands: 96 percent of the targeted WUAs (100 out of 104) reported that water distribution matches the crops’ irrigation water demands. The target was 104. [Mostly Achieved]. • Average increase in crop productivity in project’s schemes, compared to non –project schemes. Agricultural productivity increased up to 4 percent (on average), below the target of 10 percent. [Partially Achieved]. • Percentage of pasture user unions (PUU) in project areas with sound community based pasture management plans (CPMP). There were no Pasture Management Plans implemented satisfactorily based on Project PUU performance criteria. Consequently, there was no increase in the percentage of PUU in project areas with sound community based pasture management plans. [Not Achieved]. • Mining tenders in line with international best practices held on two medium to large size Kyrgyz mineral deposits in 2014-2017: The CLR reports that it could not assess whether the tenders were conducted in alignment with international best practices. [Not Verified] 24. The indicators measure dimensions of water, pastureland, and mineral management; but not the extension and other support services. The CLR did not discuss how improvements in water management in project areas will scaled up at the country level. IEG rates Objective 7 as Partially Achieved. 25. Focus Area III is rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory. There was good progress in expanding domestic and regional connectivity but limited progress on energy security and exports, and improving the management of agriculture, forestry and pasture resources. Overall Assessment and Rating 26. IEG rates the CPS development outcome as Moderately Unsatisfactory. On Focus Area I, there was little progress on establishing a robust system of public administration and reforming the judiciary while there was substantial progress on expanding access to, and increasing efficiency and quality of education, health and other public services. Specifically, while there was some progress on procurement, there was little or no progress on reducing graft or conflict of interest, or on improving access to the judiciary. There was an increased supply of infrastructure services at the village level in project areas, better results on health services, better quality of basic education, and significant improvements on pre-school education and emergency response times. However, social assistance coverage of the poor declined. On Focus Area II, there was some progress on financial sector and private sector development and limited progress on increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture. On Focus Area III, there was substantial progress in improving domestic and regional connectivity but less on international transport; and limited progress on energy security and exports, and on improving the management of agriculture, forestry and pasture resources. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Public administration and Public Service Not Rated Moderately Unsatisfactory Delivery. Objective 1: Establish a robust system of public administration Not Achieved Not Achieved and reforming the judiciary. Objective 2: Expand access to, and increase efficiency and “Achieved” Mostly Achieved quality of education, health, and other public services. For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group Focus Area II: Business Environment and Investment Not Rated Moderately Unsatisfactory Climate. Objective 3: Promoting financial and private sector “Mostly Achieved” Mostly Achieved development. Objective 4: Increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of “Mostly Achieved” Partially Achieved agriculture. Focus Area III: Natural Resources and Physical Not Rated Moderately Unsatisfactory Infrastructure. Objective 5: Ensure Energy Security and Developing Export Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved Potential. Objective 6: Expand domestic, regional, and international Achieved Mostly Achieved development transport connectivity. Objective 7: Improve the management of agriculture, forestry, mineral, pastureland, and water resources, including extension Partially Achieved Partially Achieved and other support services, for sustainable development. 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 27. At the beginning of the CPS period, total commitments were $373.4 million, with 24 Investment Project Financing (IPF) operations, including Additional Financing and one regional operation. During the CPS period, total new commitments were $328.5 million, or 5.3 percent higher than the planned volume of $312.0 million. The new lending portfolio consisted of 14 new operations in the form of four DPF operations and 10 IPF operations including Additional Financing and two regional operations. More than 80 percent of new lending commitments were allocated to four areas including energy (29 percent), macro and trade (23 percent), water (18 percent) and transport (14 percent). The new lending portfolio reflected some shift in focus from the inherited portfolio. Compared to the pre-existing portfolio, the new lending portfolio has allocated the largest share of IDA to energy where none was allocated before, a higher share for macro and trade (from 20 percent to 23 percent) in the form of three DPFs, and less for urban/rural and none for health and nutrition. IDA leveraged its assistance with 25 new trust fund operations amounting to $78.5 million, the largest of which was in the water sector ($38.0 million). However, many of the trust funded operations are small with an average size of $3.1 million. 28. During the CPS period, Kyrgyz portfolio at exit performed less well that than the average for ECA and Bank-wide. Of the15 projects validated by IEG, 67 percent were rated Moderately Satisfactory or better, below the averages for ECA (81 percent) and the Bank (75 percent). In terms of commitments, Kyrgyz projects also performed less well, with 77 percent rated MS or better compared to the averages for ECA (95 percent) and Bank-wide (86 percent). The share of projects with moderate or lower risk to development outcome (RDO) ratings was significantly lower for Kyrgyz by commitments (12 percent) and number of projects (20 percent), compared to the averages for ECA (56 percent and 49 percent, respectively) and Bank-wide (50 percent and 42 percent, respectively). 29. Kyrgyz’ active IDA portfolio performance as measured by percentage of projects at risk showed mixed results. Kyrgyz compares well with ECA and Bank-wide averages in terms of number of projects (13 percent), but less well in terms of commitments (26 percent). The comparable figures for ECA were 14 percent and 15 percent respectively, and for the Bank (21 percent and 22 percent respectively. The average disbursement ratio was higher for Kyrgyz (25 percent) than for ECA (21 percent) or the Bank (20 percent). The CLR suggests that this performance was underpinned by a proactive portfolio management, particularly by addressing generic bottlenecks affecting project implementation (including agency commitment and representation, depth of dialogue, and procurement). Notwithstanding the relatively good performance of the active portfolio for Kyrgyz but For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group relatively weak performance of Kyrgyz at exit compared to ECA and Bank-wide may also suggest possible downgrades of Kyrgyz ratings at exit. 30. During the CPS period IFC made total net investment commitments of US$14.8 million. The largest project was a FY14 IFC’s $10 million loan with its client bank to on-lend to SMEs. IFC new exposure was only in the financial sector. IEG validated the development outcome of one IFC investment project in the financial sector and rated its development outcome as Mostly Successful since the sustainability of SME lending is questionable and the project did not meet the SME reach target. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services (ASA) 31. During the CPS period, 31 ASA tasks (12 of the 17 planned and 19 unplanned) were completed, comprising five Economic Sector Work (ESW) and 26 Technical Assistance (TA). The ESW work covered important topics including poverty analysis, public expenditure review and debt management reform plan and custom union and competitiveness. More than half of the TA tasks were in energy and extractives, governance and macroeconomics, trade and investment which underpinned program lending, build capacity and provided the basis for country dialogue. The ASA work did not cover the transport sector, although the CPS had planned a study on road asset management and resilient designs. Nevertheless, an FY10 grant, active until FY 2014, supported the introduction of Quality Management Systems in the Roads Sector, and a Trade Facilitation Facility supported an assessment of a proposed rail link between China and Uzbekistan through the Kyrgyz Republic. ASA covered agriculture in the context of natural resource management (e.g., pasture management) and agribusiness. Significant gaps were the absence of a Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) to better understand growth constraints (and update the 2005 CEM) and a corruption diagnostic. Planned work on water and sanitation was not completed. ASA products were disseminated as reflected in reports readily available to the public in the Bank’s Open Knowledge Repository and in an actual task dedicated to dissemination through the Public Expenditure Review (PER) program. 32. During the CPS review period, IFC approved 14 new advisory services (AS) projects amounting to $7.7 million of IFC funds, five of which were projects to improve the investment climate, two on health, a public and private partnership (PPP) on dialysis services) and two on the development of the dairy sector. Five of the 14 ASA were terminated. IEG validated the development effectiveness of one AS project and assigned it a Satisfactory rating as it helped the privatization of a financial institution. Results Framework 33. The CPS results framework reflected reasonably well the link between the government’s strategy, the CPS objectives and outcomes and the supporting WBG interventions. It also reflected IFC’s contributions to the CPS objectives. Generally, indicators were measurable, with baselines, targets and their associated dates. The CLR identified some factors that affected results (e.g., the impact of weather on agricultural productivity) and noted in some cases (agricultural productivity) the difficulty of establishing a line of sight from project to country level outcomes. Nevertheless, the results matrix had significant shortcomings. First, more than half of the CPS objectives had multiple dimensions but the associated indicators did not sufficiently measure the achievement of the objectives. This is the case for Objectives 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7 where the indicators did not fully reflect the several dimensions of the objectives. Second, some objectives were articulated at the country level, whereas the indicators were at the project level and there was no information on the possible scaling up at the country level. A case in point is Objective 4 (raise agriculture competitiveness), where the WBG intervention was limited to a small number of small farms. Third, there were cases where outcomes were too far removed from the objective, or the indicators did not measure the objective and the causal link between the objective and indicator was not explicitly articulated. On Objective 3 (energy security and export potential), the indicator on cash collections did not measure the stated objective. Fourth, there were no interventions specifically supporting some outcomes. For example, the outcome/indicator on mining tenders (under Objective 7) was not reported or monitored in any of the WBG interventions. Fifth, some indicators are composites of several elements (Objective 1) and For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group affected by several factors and could not be fully attributed to WBG interventions. Lastly, IFC’s indicators did not adequately reflect IFC’s contributions. For example, the indicator for SME g rowth did not consider that IFC’s financial support accounted for only a portion of the loan growth of its client financial institutions. Notwithstanding changes at the PLR, including the dropping and adding of several indicators, the shortcomings at design were not fully addressed at the PLR stage. For instance, the addition of new indicators (for example, cash collection under objective 3) did not fully address the issue of providing sufficient measurement for the stated objective. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 34. The Bank coordinated with ten other development partners (including ADB, EU, the United Nations) under the Joint Statement of Partnership between the Kyrgyz Republic and Development Partners, which outlined agreed principles and values in supporting the implementation of the government’s strategy (NSDS). Under this arrangement, coordination with other development partners was conducted through sector or thematic groups, each chaired by a different partner. Coordination covered dialogue with the IMF on budget support, macroeconomic and sectoral reforms. The Bank also leveraged IDA funds through co-financing and parallel financing. More specific coordination activities included parallel financing on transport from EBRD, EU, and China Exim Bank. The World Bank also worked closely with the government and other donors at identifying and addressing implementation bottlenecks affecting project implementation. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 35. Ten of the fourteen operations in the water, agriculture, extractive, health, social development and the transport practices that were validated by IEG triggered environmental and social safeguards policies. The ICRs and ICRRs report that most operations complied with policy requirements, including adequate preparation of impact mitigation instruments, consultations and capacity building of stakeholders, and incorporation of grievance redress system for timely response to community’s complaints. The ICRs and ICRRs further indicated that no adverse effects were envisioned in most operations and all the projects closed with no outstanding issues. However, the ICRs did not always specify the social and environmental challenges that were mitigated. In April 2014, a request for investigation was submitted to the Inspection Panel by the representatives of the civil society, concerning the active Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (involving Tajikistan/Kyrgyz Republic/Afghanistan/Pakistan). The request was not registered because the Inspection Panel could not establish a plausible link between the project and the alleged harm. 36. During the review period, INT substantiated two cases, one in the water sector (National Water Resources Management Project - Phase 1 (P144336) and the other in the health sector (Second Health and Social Protection Project (P126278)). In the water sector case, a company had attempted to use a fraudulent document in the bidding process, while in the health sector case a joint venture submitted a fraudulent performance guarantee. Ownership and Flexibility 37. The alignment of the CPS objectives with the government’s National Development Strategy suggests strong government commitment to implement the CPS program. The CPS was informed by 2013 consultations that covered multiple stakeholders. Government commitment evolved over time and affected by the frequent changes in leadership. The government demonstrated commitment in pushing forward procurement reforms under the Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management DPO and contributed a large share of financing under the National Road Rehabilitation (Osh-Batken-Isfana) Project. In some cases, however, poor implementation reflected weak ownership or inadequate efforts (e.g., judicial reform, anti-corruption, improvements in the business climate), or political constraints (2nd DPO on energy, supporting tariff increases). At the PLR, the WBG demonstrated flexibility by adjusting the program, primarily in response to a deterioration of the macroeconomic environment and helping mitigate the impact of the slow-down on employment, protect vulnerable populations, and seize opportunities for private sector development. Flexibility was also reflected in revised results framework including changes in outcome indicators to reflect the changing operating environment and to better capture implementation progress. For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group WBG Internal Cooperation 38. There was good internal collaboration between the Bank and IFC, which was reflected in the design and implementation of the program. The CPS and PLR indicated that IFC would provide support primarily for the business environment and investment climate objectives. Collaboration between the two institutions included two joint IDA-IFC activities, covering the legal framework for moveable collaterals and a joint dairy initiative. Furthermore, there was also cooperation through separate but complementary IDA and IFC activities. Under objective 3, for example, IFC’s Central Asia Tax Project sought to improve compliance with mandatory requirements of tax legislation; and IDA’s Governance and Competitiveness DPO supported amendments to the tax code. Risk Identification and Mitigation 39. The CPS and PLR identified several risk factors that could affect the program’s implementation including a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, political instability, ineffective implementation capacity, and fragile political economy. The four risks materialized to some extent: growth declined during the CPS period; the evolving political climate resulted in frequent changes in government (5 prime ministers during the CPS period); high percentage of projects at risk; and reform consensus remained difficult in some areas (judiciary, energy pricing) due to frequent changes in cabinet and political leadership. However, the risk events were limited when compared with previous periods (e.g., the major political crisis in 2010). The WBG used some of its risk mitigation tools, by helping support reforms through four DPOs. Overall Assessment and Rating 40. IEG rates WBG performance as Good. The CPS addressed well-identified development challenges and benefited from alignment with the government’s strategy and consultation with multiple stakeholders. The selected CPS objectives were consistent with the twin corporate goals. Overall, the CPS was selective in terms of focus areas, objectives and IDA interventions. The use of IPFs, DPOs and ASA, as well as IFC investments was appropriate to address investment and policy needs. Planned ASA activities covered most fronts, although the lack of a CEM and a corruption diagnostic were notable gaps. However, the results framework had significant shortcomings. The CPS and PLR identified risks and mitigation measures adequately. 41. At the PLR, adjustments were made to the program that reflected enhanced attention to investment climate objectives, EU membership issues, and regional cooperation During the CPS period, portfolio at exit performed less well than the ECA and Bank-side averages. Notwithstanding efforts at portfolio consolidation, the active portfolio did not perform well as measured by the percentage of projects at risk. However, the average disbursement ratio was higher compared to the ECA and Bank-wide averages. There was internal synergy between IDA and IFC, particularly in the Business Environment and Investment Climate Focus area. There were no major safeguard issues. INT reported two cases that were substantiated. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 42. The CLR provides an informative assessment of the CPS development outcome and WBG performance. The CLR provided evidence on the extent to which outcomes were achieved as well as on WBG’s contribution to those outcomes, but it was limited by inadequacies in some indicators. The CLR could have discussed the poor outcomes on corruption, a central constraint on development efforts and outcomes. The CLR also excluded discussion of achievements in a few areas (e.g., pasture management). More importantly, the CLR assessment relied only on indicators, with no reference to how the outcomes contributed and measured the achievement of the CPS objectives, and on providing additional indicators to supplement insufficient indicators. There was also inadequate attention to the role that ASA may have played. The CLR provided little detail on the implementation challenges and how the WBG responded to those challenges (e.g., on energy). For Official Use Only CLR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group 8. Findings and Lessons 43. The CLR highlighted four lessons. First, improvements in governance require a long-term approach spanning several CPF periods. Second, overarching PSD reforms have greater impact than specific doing business indicators and selective interventions through advisory programs. Third, ASA effectiveness can be enhanced through programmatic approaches and stronger communication and dissemination. Fourth, systemic portfolio issues can be easily addressed when there is strong commitment from the government and there are dedicated champions in the implementing agencies. 44. IEG adds the following lessons: • First, it is critical to have a robust results framework, with clear links between CPS objectives, results and WBG interventions, to capture well the development effectiveness of the WBG’s country engagement. In the case of Kyrgyz Republic, more than half of the CPS objectives had multiple dimensions but the associated indicators did not sufficiently measure the achievement of the objectives. This is the case for Objectives 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7 where the indicators did not fully reflect the several dimensions of the objectives. Going forward, a more robust results framework is critical for ensuring that program results can be monitored effectively so as to inform the management of the country program. • Second, reducing corruption takes time, political will, commitment, and sustained policy effort. In Kyrgyz Republic, it is likely to take several years, hence the WBG can intensify efforts to help the government achieve stronger results in this area. During the CPS period, WBG support on anti- corruption was based on the government’s 2012 Anti-Corruption plan and provided through the DPF program. The latter was less than successful in reducing corruption. Effectiveness in this area will require considerable capacity building and commitment on the part of the government. It will also require a detailed and actionable political economy analysis of grand corruption and the role of vested interests, as the SCD points out. This was missing from the ASA program. Accordingly, engaging in dialogue with the Government on actions derived from such an analysis will be critical to make significant inroads in supporting the government to address corruption. Annexes CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Kyrgyz Republic Annex Table 2: Kyrgyz IDA Planned and Actual Lending, FY14-FY17 Annex Table 3: Advisory Services and Analytics Work for Kyrgyz, FY14-FY17 Annex Table 4: Kyrgyz Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY14-17 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Kyrgyz and Comparators, FY14-17 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Kyrgyz and Comparators, FY14-17 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Kyrgyz, FY14-17 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Kyrgyz, FY14-17 (US$ millions) Annex Table 10: Kyrgyz Republic Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance Annex Table 11: Economic and Social indicators for Kyrgyz Republic, 2014-2016 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Kyrgyz Republic Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Kyrgyz Republic Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Kyrgyz Republic, FY14 - FY17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Kyrgyz Republic, 2014-2017 Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Kyrgyz Republic CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area I: Actual Results (as of current Public Administration and IEG Comments month/year) Public Service Delivery CPS Objective 1: Establish a robust system of public administration and reforming the judiciary Indicator 1: Building a According to the World Economic This indicator was meritocratic public Forum’s Global Competitiveness report specified in the PLR as administration, as measured by 2017-2018, the Kyrgyz Republic’s the score on favoritism in the World Economic Forum ranking on the World Economic Forum’s decisions of government score on favoritism in decisions index of 137 countries rose to 86th by yet the baseline and target of government 2017 from 136th in 2012. values referred instead to the rank of Kyrgyz on Baseline (2012): 136 Achieved favoritism in decisions of Target (2017): 120 government. This objective was supported through the Development Policy Operations (DPO) series I (P126034, FY14) and II (P126274; FY14) and through the following four projects: the Governance Major Technical Assistance (TA) Outcome project (P071063; FY03), Measures the Public Finance Management Capacity Building Trust Fund (TF) grant (P112713; FY10), the Capacity Building for Economic Management IDA grant (P108525; FY09), and an Institutional Development Fund (IDF) grant for Capacity Building for Public Sector Internal Audit (P128733; FY13). Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) that contributed to this outcome included a Programmatic Public Expenditure Review (P129309; FY14) and the Public Sector Reform Roadmaps I (P144410; FY14) and II (P148198; FY16). Indicator 2: Verification of The CLR indicates that a delay in This indicator was added declarations of conflict of interest enacting the Law on Conflict of Interest at the PLR stage to reflect by the Commission: key results of the DPO CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 18 CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area I: Actual Results (as of current Public Administration and IEG Comments month/year) Public Service Delivery prevented the establishment of the series, supporting Baseline (2015): zero Commission. Objective 1. Target (2017): 15 % of filings The Commission was not established; This indicator was hence the verification was not supported by the first undertaken. Programmatic Governance and Not Achieved competitiveness DPO (P148099; FY16) Indicator 3: Graft index (ratio of The CLR indicates that a study on Graft This indicator was added reported bribes for public index was not conducted due to the at the PLR stage to reflect services to total transactions): cancelation of a DPO in FY17. key results of the DPO series, supporting Baseline (2015): 15% According to Transparency Objective 1. Target (2017): <10% International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, Kyrgyz’s ranking declined from This indicator was 123rd out of 167 (score of 28) in 2015 to supported through the 135th out 167 ranked countries in 2017 DPO series I (P126034, (score of 29). FY14) and II (P126274; FY14). In addition, the Kyrgyz score for the irregular payments and bribes indicator of the Global Competitiveness report changed only slightly from 2.6 out of 7 in 2015 (rank of 130/140) to 2.8 out of 7 in 2017 (rank of 122/137). Not Achieved Indicator 4: Improving access to The 2017 Kyrgyz score for sub-indicator This indicator was justice, as measured by World 7.1 was 0.59 indicating a deterioration supported through the Justice Project Rule of Law from the 2013 baseline score of 0.64. DPO series I (P126034, Index – sub-indicator 7.1: FY14) and II (P126274; “People can access and afford Not Achieved FY14). civil justice”: Baseline (2013): 0.64 Target (2017): 0.7 Indicator 5: PEFA P1-19 score A new PEFA assessment for 2017 was This indicator was added on competition, value for money not done. at the PLR stage to reflect and controls in procurement: key results of the DPO The CLR indicates that a new Public series, supporting Baseline (2014): B Procurement Law in line with Objective 1. Target (2017) B+ international good practice was adopted, e-procurement is being used and a This indicator was Complaint Review Commission was supported through the first established in March 2016. Programmatic Governance and This information is reported in IEG competitiveness DPO ICRR: MS of the DPO series I (P126034, (P148099; FY16) and FY14) and II (P126274; FY14) that also from the DPO series I indicates that all public procurement now (P126034, FY14) and II (P126274; FY14). CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 19 CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area I: Actual Results (as of current Public Administration and IEG Comments month/year) Public Service Delivery takes place through a portal. The ICRR notes progress in public procurement. Additional data from the Global Competitiveness Index indicates that Partially Achieved overall ranking for the Kyrgyz Republic slightly increased from 108/144 (in 2014-2015) to 102/137 (in 2017-2018) – although the country ranking for Intensity of Local Competition decreased from 107/144 (in 2014- 2015) to 124/137 (in 2017-2018). CPS Objective 2: Expanding access to, and increasing the efficiency and quality of education, health, and other public services Outcome (1): Increase in the IEG ICRR: S of the Second Village The target value of this number of villages with Improvement Project (FY07) reported indicator was changed at improved social and economic that by 2015, 1,698 villages had access the PLR stage. The infrastructure to improved social and economic original target value was infrastructure, exceeding the target. 2000. Indicator 1: Number of villages with improved social and Achieved This outcome was economic infrastructure. supported by the following Baseline (2007): 1000 projects: the second Target (2017): 1500 Village Improvement Project (VIP) (P098949; FY07), an additional financing project (P130667; FY13), the Third VIP (P146970; FY15), and the Second Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project (P110267;FY09). Outcome 2: Increased The CLR reports that about 70% of This indicator was added enrolment in the full-year pre- children were enrolled in pre-school by at the PLR stage as a school program the end of the CPS period, versus a replacement of the baseline of 0. This information could not dropped outcome in Indicator: Enrolment in the full- be verified. education sector. year pre-school program Data from the Ministry of Economy This outcome was Baseline (2010): 0 statistics indicates that 187,078 children supported by the Kyrgyz Target (2017): 70% were enrolled in pre-school institutions in Global Partnership for 2017. Data from the ministry puts the Education (GPE) TF population of 5-6 year old children at project (P132490:FY14) 289,319 in 2017. This suggests that and the Sector Support for about 65 percent of the eligible Education Reform population were enrolled in the pre- (P113350:FY13). school children in 2017 slightly below the target of 70%. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 20 CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area I: Actual Results (as of current Public Administration and IEG Comments month/year) Public Service Delivery Data from the World Development Indicators (WDI-WB) indicate that gross enrolment ratio for pre-primary school increased from 18.62% (2010) to 25.6% (2015), with no significant differences between girls and boys. Mostly Achieved. Outcome 3: Reduced The CLR stated that the mortality rate This outcome was cardiovascular disease from cardiovascular disease reduced supported by the first mortality rate from 310 to 263.8 according to data from Health and Social the MOH statistics system. Protection project Indicator: Mortality rate from (P084977; FY06) and cardiovascular disease (40-59 IEG ICRR: MU of P084977 reports that additional financing years, per 100 000) the cardiovascular disease mortality projects I (P112142; rates among 40-59 year old had FY08) and II (P125470; • Baseline (2011): 310 declined to 295 by 2015. FY11). It was also • Target (2017): 287 supported by the second Mostly Achieved Health and Social Protection project (P126278; FY13). Outcome 4: Reduced TB The CLR reports that the mortality rate This outcome was added mortality rate from tuberculosis (TB) was reduced to at the PLR stage. 6.1 from a baseline value of 8.7 Indicator 4: TB mortality rate according to data from the MOH This outcome was statistics system. supported by the first Baseline: 8.7 (2011) Health and Social Target: <8 (2016) IEG ICRR: MU of P084977 reports that Protection project the TB mortality rate declined from 11.2 (P084977; FY06) and in 2004 to 6.7 (below 8) by 2014. additional financing projects I (P112142; World Health Organization data for FY08) and II (P125470; Kyrgyz reports a TB mortality rate of 7.2 FY11). for 2016. Achieved Outcome 5: Increased Share None of the lending projects in the The baseline and target of social assistance spending portfolio tracked this indicator. values of this indicator on poverty-targeted programs were changed at the PLR The CLR indicates an increase in share stage. The original values Indicator: Share of social of spending on poverty-targeted were as follows: assistance spending on poverty- programs from 18.5% to 32.3% (based Baseline (2011): 15% targeted programs on analysis of budget information from Target (2017): 35% the Ministry of Finance and Bank staff Baseline (2011): 18.5% estimates). This information could not be This outcome benefited Target (2017): 30% verified by IEG. from a World Bank policy note titled “Minimum Information from the 2016 IMF Country Living Standards and Report (Page 14) indicates that the Alternative Targeting CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 21 CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area I: Actual Results (as of current Public Administration and IEG Comments month/year) Public Service Delivery share of social assistance spending has Methods for Social not increased: The social assistance Transfers,” that was system remains complex and completed as part of the fragmented and the pro-poor monthly Poverty Analysis ESW benefit for poor families (MBPF), which (P101613:FY14) coverage has declined and budget grew at a slower pace than other programs, covers less than a third of the poorest 20 percent. Not Achieved Outcome 6: Reduction of The ICR: MS of P110267 indicated that, This outcome was added water-borne diseases in “the project contributed to the decreased at the PLR stage to reflect project areas incidence of waterborne diseases such the Government priority as acute intestinal infections, viral and Bank’s contribution in Indicator 6: Reduction of water- hepatitis, and helminthic (worm) invasion improving quality of borne diseases in project areas in participating communities by an drinking water in remote average of 62.5 percent between 2012 poorest rural areas. and October 2014. Baseline (2009): zero The outcome was Target (2014): -60% Without specifying the extent of the supported by the Second reduction, IEG ICRR: MS of P110267, Rural Water Supply and asserted that hygiene and sanitation Sanitation Project behavior improved and the number of (P110267:FY09). waterborne diseases reduced because of the project. Achieved Outcome 7: Reduced average The CLR indicates that the target of This indicator was added emergency response time reducing average emergency response at the PLR stage. times in rural areas from 3 hours to 1 Indicator: Average hour was also met (Ministry of This outcome was emergency response time Emergency Situations data). This supported by the information could not be verified. Coordination of • Baseline (2013): 3 hours Emergency Situations • Target (2017): 1 hour The February 24, 2016 grant completion Trust Fund Project report for P126819 indicated that, (P126819:FY11) which “Emergency response services can now supported the access the places of accidents within 30- development of the 40 minutes after receiving the message, National Integrated as compared to previous practice which System of Information and took almost an hour to reach the most Warning of the Population remote places within duty (NISIWP). responsibilities.. Data from the Global Achieved Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery reports that Emergency response time has been CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 22 CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area I: Actual Results (as of current Public Administration and IEG Comments month/year) Public Service Delivery cut by 20% as a result of a USD 1.45 million grant from the Facility (see Stories of Impact for the Kyrgyz Republic) – this is similar to what is reported in Column 2. CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area II: Actual Results (as of current Business Environment and IEG Comments month/year) Investment Climate CPS Objective 3.: Promoting financial and private sector development Outcome 1: Rise in the Data from the IFC indicates that lending This outcome was volume of MSME loans to MSMEs via Micro Finance Institutions supported by an IFC loan provided by MFIs supported and the bank supported by IFC to a Bank supporting by IFC. increased by US$249 million SMEs (34958: FY15) and by the IFC Financial Indicator: Volume of MSME Achieved Markets Infrastructure Major loans provided by MFIs Project (569391: FY10) Outcome supported by IFC which sought to expand Measures secure access to finance Baseline (2011): $150 million for individual consumers Target (2016): US$200 million and MSMEs in Kyrgyzstan by improving the credit infrastructure. Outcome 2: Rise in yearly The January 2018 ISR:MU of FSDP This outcome was registrations in collateral suggests that a change in the rules supported by the registry regarding the registration of collateral Financial Sector resulted in a fall in the number of Development Project Indicator: Yearly registrations in registrations. The registration of (FSDP) (P125689; FY12) collateral registry collateral was made voluntary since and by the IFC Financial 2017 (whereas it was mandatory before Markets Infrastructure Baseline (2013): 42,000 since 2006), and as a result, the Project (569391: FY10) Target (2016): 62,000 number of new registrations dropped to which sought to build the 9.000 in the first 3 quarters of 2017. capacity of collateral registry. According to the June 2018 project paper for P125689, the amount of Data from Doing Business collateral registrations in 2017 was indicates that credit 10,947 of which 9,547 ‘physical’ bureau coverage registrations and 1,354 ‘on-line’ increases from 35.3% of registrations. In the first 5 months of the adults (2015) to 37% 2018 there were 1,400 on-line (2017) of the adults. registrations. Not Achieved Outcome 3: Increased private Data from the World Development At the PLR stage, the credit bureau coverage indicators database, the private credit target value of this bureau coverage increased from 24.6% indicator was increased from 30 to 36 percent. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 23 CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area II: Actual Results (as of current Business Environment and IEG Comments month/year) Investment Climate Indicator: Private credit bureau in 2012 to 30.6% in 2016 and 37% in This outcome was coverage (% of adults) 2017. supported by the IFC • Baseline (2012): 24.6% Financial Markets • Target (2016): 30.0% Achieved Infrastructure Project (569391: FY10) which sought to expand secure access to finance for individual consumers and MSMEs in Kyrgyzstan by improving the credit infrastructure. Outcome 4: Increase of The CLR indicates that eligible/covered This indicator was added "eligible deposits" deposits increased to 12.6% by end at the PLR stage. 2016 and that the end-CPS target of Indicator: Eligible deposits as 13% coverage will only be known with This outcome was percent of GDP certainty by April 2018 when the supported through the Deposit Protection Agency releases its Development Policy 2017 statistics. Operations (DPO) series I Baseline (2013): 7.97 % (P126034, FY14) and II Target (2017): 13 % IEG ICRR: MS of the DPO series (P126274; FY14). indicates that the amendments to the Deposit Protection Law went into effect This outcome also in 2016, which clarified the powers and benefitted from a NLTA competencies of the deposit protection project (P121703; FY14) agency and reportedly bolstered aimed at building up the depositor confidence. The ICRR also capacity of the Deposit notes that this action could not have Protection agency, contributed to the increase in the including assisting in deposit to GDP ratio between drafting missing November 2013 and December 2014 regulations, internal (from 16 to 25 percent of GDP, against manuals and guidelines a target of 20 percent) because the for all key functions of the indicator is influenced by other agency. factors other than the state of the deposit insurance scheme. However, the extent of eligible deposits could not be verified. Kyrgyz Deposit Protection Law (article 5) excludes several categories of deposits that are not eligible. Not Verified Outcome 5: Reduced tax The February 2018 supervision report At the PLR stage, the compliance labor cost for for the Central Asia Tax project reports baseline of this indicator businesses that the taxpayer cabinet for e-filing and was changed. The original e-services with new design and new baseline value was as Indicator: Tax compliance costs business process for taxpayer follows: Baseline (2012): average tax authorization was launched on 18 Baseline: SOM 34 compliance costs of KGS 30,800 December 2017 and has resulted in thousand (2013) or $655 for one taxpayer or 40.4 time savings through reduced visits to working days the State Tax Service. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 24 CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area II: Actual Results (as of current Business Environment and IEG Comments month/year) Investment Climate Target (2016): 10% lower in real An IFC report on tax compliance costs This outcome was terms indicated that as a result of the Central supported by the Asia Tax project, by 2014, taxpayers Governance and spent an average of 34 work days on Competitiveness DPO tax accounting, which was six days less (P148099:FY17) and by than in 2012. In addition to the the IFC Central Asia Tax reduction in time, the financial costs of Project (597327:FY13) tax accounting had fallen from US$ 655 which supported to US$546 in 2014. implementation of new e- Based on the data from the IFC report, services via taxpayer there was a 15.8% reduction in the time cabinet. and 16.6% reduction in the financial cost of tax compliance relative to the baseline. Doing Business data reports that time to pay taxes changed, insignificantly, from 226 hours in 2013 to 225 hours during 2014-17, and that the Doing Business “Distance to Frontier” estimate on taxes changed little during that period. Mostly Achieved Outcome 6: Decreased According to the CLR the number of This outcome was regulatory compliance cost inspections per business fell from 2.65 supported by the and improved quality of to 1.45, the average duration of Governance and business inspections in pilot inspection reduced from 7 days to 0.25, Competitiveness DPO agencies and the average cost per inspection fell (P148099:FY17). from 9.800 to 131 soms. Indicator: Non-tax inspection compliance cost None of the projects that supported this outcome included this as an indicator. Baseline (2011): US$1.8 million According to the Aug 16, 2018 Target (2016): 10% lower costs completion report for the IFC in real term investment climate advisory project, the share of businesses inspected per year fell from 73% in 2012 to 43% in 2016, the annual number of inspections per business from 2.7 to 1.5, and the average costs per inspection reduced from $182 to $2.5. However, Global Competitiveness Report data indicates that the index of the burden of regulation improved little, from 3.2/7 in 2013 to 3.3/7.in 2017. Mostly Achieved CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 25 CPS FY14-FY17: Focus area II: Actual Results (as of current Business Environment and IEG Comments month/year) Investment Climate CPS Objective 4: Increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture Indicator 1: Increase in the gross IEG ICRR: MU of APAP reported an This indicator was added value of output for APAP target average increase of 550% of the Gross at the PLR stage. farms Value of Output (GVO) for participating farms by July 31, 2015. This objective was Baseline (2011): zero The I ICRR indicated however that the supported through the Target (2015): 550 % methodology for calculating the GVO Agricultural Productivity was not clear. Assistance Project (APAP) (P118838:FY11) Achieved and the Integrated Dairy Productivity Improvement Project (P155412:FY11). Indicator 2: Average weighted The ICR:S of APAP reported that by July This indicator was added increase in crop yields for APAP 31, 2015 there was a 218% increase in at the PLR stage. target farms the yields per ha in the participating farms for selected key crops. This indicator was Baseline (2011): zero supported through the Target (2015): 218% IEG:MU of APAP noted that the farm- Agricultural Productivity level support provided by the project Assistance Project appeared to have contributed to yield (APAP) (P118838:FY11). improvements in agricultural productivity Achieved CPS FY14-17: Focus are III: Actual Results (as of current Natural Resources and IEG Comments month/year) Physical Infrastructure. CPS Objective 5: Ensuring Energy Security and Developing Export Potential Indicator 1: Energy loss According to the December 2017 This objective received reduction in largest distribution ISR:MS of P133446, the Electricity support from the company Severoelectro losses per year in the project area fell to Electricity Supply 14.50% by December 2017 and then to Accountability and Baseline (2012): 22% 14% by May 2018.. Reliability Improvement Target (2017): 15% Project (P133446:FY15), Mostly Achieved the Energy sector DPO (P152440:FY15), and the Governance and Competitiveness DPO (P148099:FY17). Indicator 2: Cash collection per The CLR indicates that by 2015, an This indicator was added kWh of electric energy increase to 0.93 som in cash collection at the PLR stage. generated per kWh of electric energy was generated. This indicator received Baseline (2013): 0.59 som/kWh support from the Energy Target (2015): 0.64 som/kWh ICR: MS of the Energy sector DPO sector DPO reported that cash collected per kWh of (P152440:FY15). power generated increased from 0.59 Som/kWh in 2013 to 0.93 Som/kWh in 2015. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 26 CPS FY14-17: Focus are III: Actual Results (as of current Natural Resources and IEG Comments month/year) Physical Infrastructure. Achieved Indicator 3: Cash collection per The CLR indicates that by 2015, an This indicator was added Gcal of generated heat at increase to 697 som in cash collection at the PLR stage. Bishkek CHP per Gcal of generated heat at Bishkek CHP. This indicator received Baseline (2013): 460 som/GCal support from the Energy Target (2015): 598 som/GCal ICR: MS of the Energy sector DPO sector DPO reported that the cash collection per (P152440:FY15). Gcal of generated heat at Bishkek CHP increased from 460 Som/GCal in 2013/2014 to 697.3 Som/Gcal in 2015. The ICRR however, noted the narrow focus on cash collection and did not take into account sustainability of the sector. Achieved Objective 6: Expanding domestic, regional, and international development transport connectivity Indicator 1: Reduction of travel IEG ICRR: S for the National Road This indicator was added time along the project road Rehabilitation project indicated that by at the PLR stage. sections in Batken Oblast January 31, 2015, the travel time declined from 50 min to 25 min on the This objective was Baseline (2009): 68 minutes Pulgon-Burgandy section and from 18 to supported through the Target (2014): 60 minutes 15 minutes on the Nookat Pass. Overall, National Road the travel time along the road sections Rehabilitation (Osh- declined from 68 to 40 minutes. Batken-Isfana) project (P107608:FY10) and two Achieved related additional financing projects (P123291; FY11) and (P126606;FY11). Support for this objective was also received from the Central Asia Road Links project (P132270:FY14) and from the Introduction of Quality Management Systems in the Roads Sector IDF grant (P120264: FY10). Indicator 2: Reduction in IEG ICRR: S for the National Road This indicator was added transport cost along project road Rehabilitation project indicated that that at the PLR stage. sections in Batken Oblast by January 31, 2015, transport costs for road users by car decreased from This indicator was Baseline (2009): $ 0.3 (per US$0.30 to US$0.25 (against the target supported through the vehicle per km) of US$0.27) on the Pulgon-Burgandy National Road Target (2014): $0.27 (per vehicle section (32 km) and from US$0.29 to Rehabilitation (Osh- per km) US$0.27 on Nookat Pass (18 km) of the Batken-Isfana) project Osh-Batken-Isfana road corridor. (P107608:FY10) and two CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 27 CPS FY14-17: Focus are III: Actual Results (as of current Natural Resources and IEG Comments month/year) Physical Infrastructure. related additional financing Achieved projects (P123291; FY11) and (P126606;FY11). Indicator 3: Improved trade The CLR indicates that the target value This indicator was added along the Osh-Batken-Isfana for this indicator is to be achieved with at the PLR stage. road through two border posts support from the Central Asia Road This indicator was with Tajikistan as measured by Links project and results to be achieved supported through the the volume of freight. by 2019. Central Asia Road Links project (P132270:FY14). The January 2018 ISR:S of the Central Per the Project Appraisal Baseline (2014): 5 million tons of Asia road links project indicates that as Document (PAD) of the freight of December 2017, the volume of FY 14 project, the Target (2019): 5.5 million tons of freight through Kyzyl-Bel/Guliston and baseline and target values freight Kairagach/Madaniyat border crossing for this indicator were points had declined from 500,000 to 500,000 and550,000 tons, 400,000 tons. respectively. Not Achieved Objective 7: Improving the management of agriculture, forestry, mineral, pastureland, and water resources, including extension and other support services, for sustainable development Indicator 1: Water distribution to IEG ICRR:MS of the Second On-Farm This objective was farmers within 80% of the Irrigation Project reported that by supported by the Second rehabilitated systems closely December 2016, 96 percent of the On-Farm Irrigation Project matches the crops’ irrigation targeted Water User Associations (P096409: FY09), an water demands. (WUAs) (or 100 out of 104) reported additional financing that water distribution matches the project (P126390: FY11), Baseline (2008): 10 WUA crops’ irrigation water demands. the Water Management systems Improvement Project Target (2017): 104 WUA Mostly Achieved (P088671:FY06, and the systems Pasture and Livestock Management Improvement Project (P145162:FY15) which aimed to improve community based pasture and livestock management in project areas. Indicator 2: Average increase in According to IEG ICRR:MS of the This indicator was crop productivity in project’s Second On-Farm Irrigation Project, supported through the schemes, compared to non – agricultural productivity had increased Second On-Farm project schemes. up to 4 percent (on average) by Irrigation Project December 2016, as a result of project (P096409: FY09). Baseline (2012): zero interventions, notwithstanding yield Target (2017): 10% decreases in 2014 and 2015 due to adverse weather. Partially Achieved CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 28 CPS FY14-17: Focus are III: Actual Results (as of current Natural Resources and IEG Comments month/year) Physical Infrastructure. Indicator 3: Percentage of According to the December 2017 This indicator was pasture user unions (PUU) in ISR:MS of the Pasture Management supported through the project areas with sound project, as of November 2017, there Pasture and Livestock community based pasture were no Pasture Management Plans Management management plans (CPMP). implemented satisfactorily based on Improvement Project Project PUU performance criteria. (P145162:FY15) Consequently, there was no increase in Baseline (2016): zero percentage of pasture user unions Target (2017): 30% (PUU) in project areas with sound community based pasture management plans. Not Achieved Indicator 4: Mining tenders in None of the projects in the line with international best The CLR indicates that although the Kyrgyz portfolio included practices held on two medium to tenders were completed, the CLR team this as an indicator. large size Kyrgyz mineral could not assess whether the tenders However, three NLTA deposits in 2014-2017. were conducted in alignment with projects in the mining international best practices. The CLRR sector (P125264, Target (2017): yes concurs with this rating. P133170, and P128732: FY14) sought to build Not Verified capacity of authorities in working with mining sector investors, improve the business environment of the mining sector and strengthen the role of civil society in extractive industries. Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Kyrgyz IDA Planned and Actual Lending, FY14-FY17 Lending Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Approved Outcome Project ID Project name Instrument FY FY FY Amount IDA Amount Rating Type Project Planned Under CPS/PLR 2014-2017 PLR P126034 DPO1 ADJUSTMENT 2014 2014 2015 25 25 IEG:MS Programmatic P126274 ADJUSTMENT 2014 2014 2016 25 25 IEG:MS Development Policy Op 2 Central Asia Road Links - P132270 INVESTMENT 2014 2014 2019 45 45 LIR:S Kyrgyz Republic Rural Water Supply and DROPPED Sanitation -2 Additional INVESTMENT 2014 2 Financing P145054 CASA-1000 Project INVESTMENT 2014 2014 2020 45 45 LIR:MS Pasture Management P145162 INVESTMENT 2015 2015 2019 12 15 LIR:MS Improvement Project Electricity Supply P133446 INVESTMENT 2015 2015 2020 12 25 LIR:MS Accountability P152440 Energy Sector DPO ADJUSTMENT 2015 2015 2016 24 24 IEG:MS Regional Animal Health DROPPED control - Kyrgyz INVESTMENT 2015 5 contribution Third Village Investment P146970 INVESTMENT 2016 2015 2021 12 12 LIR:MS Project Integrated Forest P151102 INVESTMENT 2016 2016 2022 12 12 LIR:MS Ecosystem Management Urban Development P151416 INVESTMENT 2017 2016 2021 12 12 LIR:S Project Integrated Dairy P155412 INVESTMENT 2016 2017 2021 5 5 LIR:MU Productivity Improvemen Governance and P148099 ADJUSTMENT 2016 2017 2018 24 24 Competitiveness DPO Judicial Development DROPPED INVESTMENT 2017 12 Project Development Policy DROPPED ADJUSTMENT 2017 24 Operation DROPPED Social Protection Project INVESTMENT 2017 7 Climate Adaptation and DROPPED Mitigation project for Aral INVESTMENT 2017 9 See Basin Total Planned 312.0 269.0 Unplanned Projects during the CPS and PLR Period Sustainable Rural Water P154778 Supply and Sanitation INVESTMENT 2017 2025 23.5 LIR:S Project (SRWSSDP) P162840 SRWSSDP - AF INVESTMENT 2017 2025 36.0 Total Unplanned 59.5 Lending On-going Projects during the CPS and Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Approved Outcome Instrument PLR Period FY FY FY Amount IDA Amount Rating Type P071063 GOV TA INVESTMENT 2003 2014 7.8 IEG:U P084977 HEALTH & SOC PROT INVESTMENT 2006 2015 15.0 IEG:MU P088671 WATER MGMT IMPRVMT INVESTMENT 2006 2014 19.0 IEG:U CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 30 Lending Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Approved Outcome Project ID Project name Instrument FY FY FY Amount IDA Amount Rating Type P098949 VIP 2 INVESTMENT 2007 2015 15.0 IEG:S P096409 OIP-2 INVESTMENT 2007 2017 16.0 IEG:MS ADD'L FIN - HEALTH & P112142 INVESTMENT 2008 2015 6.0 SOC PROT BISHKEK AND OSH P104994 URBAN INVESTMENT 2008 2016 12.0 IEG:S INFRASTRUCTURE P096993 AISP INVESTMENT 2008 2013 9.0 IEG:MS CAPACITY BLDG ECON P108525 INVESTMENT 2009 2014 3.0 IEG:MU MGT SECOND LAND & REAL P108178 INVESTMENT 2009 2014 5.9 IEG:S ESTATE REGISTRATION RURAL WATER SUPPLY P110267 INVESTMENT 2009 2015 10.0 IEG:MS & SAN 2 ADDITIONAL FINANCING P115524 INVESTMENT 2010 2015 8.0 - VIP 2 NATL. ROAD REHAB P107608 INVESTMENT 2010 2015 25.0 IEG:S (Osh-Batken-Isfana) P125470 Health & SP AF2 INVESTMENT 2011 2015 24.0 EMERGENCY P123044 INVESTMENT 2011 2014 70.0 IEG:S RECOVERY AF-NATL. ROAD REHAB P123291 INVESTMENT 2011 2015 10.0 (Osh-Batken-Isfana) AF National Road P126606 INVESTMENT 2011 2015 16.0 Rehabilitation (OBI) AF-SECOND ON-FARM P126390 INVESTMENT 2011 2017 15.0 IRRIGATION PROJECT CENTRAL ASIA P120788 HYDROMET INVESTMENT 2011 2019 20.7 LIR:S MODERNIZATION KG Financial Sector P125689 INVESTMENT 2012 2018 13.0 LIR:MU Development Project AF - BISHKEK &OSH P122811 INVESTMENT 2012 2016 15.8 URBAN Sector Support for P113350 INVESTMENT 2013 2019 16.5 LIR:S Education Reform P126278 HEALTH & SP 2 INVESTMENT 2013 2019 16.5 LIR:S P130667 AF2 for VIP2 INVESTMENT 2013 2015 4.2 Total On-going 373.4 Source: Kyrgyz CPS and PLR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2b.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 03/27/18 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 31 Annex Table 3: Advisory Services and Analytics Work for Kyrgyz, FY14-FY17 Fiscal Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Output Type Global Practice year P101613 Poverty Analysis Program FY14 Poverty Assessment (PA) Poverty and Equity Programmatic Public Expenditure P129309 FY14 Public Expenditure Review (PER) Governance Review P147416 Communities, Forests and Pastures FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Environment & Natural Resources Macroeconomics, Trade and P155367 Debt Management Reform Plan FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Investment PSD, Privatization and Industrial P156845 Custom Union and Competitiveness FY16 Trade & Competitiveness Policy Fiscal Proj ID Technical Assistance Output Type Global Practice year Information Matters - Transparency & P110775 FY14 Technical Assistance Governance Acc FIRST KG #9002 Deposit Protect Finance, Competitiveness and P121703 FY14 Technical Assistance Agency Innovation P125264 Kyrgyz Republic: Mining Sector TA FY14 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives P128732 CSO - Kyrgyz Republic FY14 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives P133170 Mining Sector Business Enviroment FY14 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives P144410 Public Sector Reform Roadmap FY14 Technical Assistance Governance P146333 Tariff Setting Methodology FY15 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives P146367 TA for CoA to enhance the PP Audit FY15 Technical Assistance Governance Roadmap for Improving SSN P146658 FY16 Technical Assistance Social Protection & Labor Adminstration Building Capacity Of Local Experts- P146809 FY17 Technical Assistance Governance BCLE P147641 Agribusiness Study FY14 Technical Assistance Agriculture KG Public Sector Reform RM and P148198 FY16 Technical Assistance Governance AP Health Financing and Public P149887 FY15 Technical Assistance Health, Nutrition & Population Finance MDG5/MDG Acceleration P150507 FY15 Technical Assistance Health, Nutrition & Population Framework Finance, Competitiveness and P151603 Kyrgyz Republic FCP TA FY17 Technical Assistance Innovation P151970 Heating Efficiency Improvement FY16 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives Macroeconomics, Trade and P153480 Kyrgyz PER Dissemination FY15 Technical Assistance Investment Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience P154420 Strengthening Urban Resilience FY17 Technical Assistance Global Practice P156844 National PSD Strategy FY16 Technical Assistance Trade & Competitiveness Business Environment P156846 FY16 Technical Assistance Trade & Competitiveness Enhancement Macroeconomics, Trade and P157259 DeMPA Kyrgyz FY16 Technical Assistance Investment Capacity Building for Publ Sctr Acc P157428 FY16 Technical Assistance Governance Rfrm P157685 Small hydropower development FY17 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives P158051 Higher Education Sector Overview FY16 Technical Assistance Education Next Generation Land Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience P158348 FY17 Technical Assistance Administration Global Practice Macroeconomics, Trade and P158726 CMC:Kyrgyz Republic MTDS FY17 Technical Assistance Investment Source: WB Business Intelligence 03/27/18 Annexes CLR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Kyrgyz Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY14-17 Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating P088671 WATER MGMT IMPRVMT TF 56324 2006 2014 4.4 IEG:U P110267 RURAL WATER SUPPLY & SAN 2 TF 13105 2009 2015 1.4 IEG:MS P112713 PFM CAPACITY BUILDING TF 95472 2010 2015 7.5 IEG:MS P120264 IDF-ROADS SECTOR MANAGEMENT TF 95989 2010 2014 0.5 LIR:S P118838 AG PROD TF 99880 2011 2016 6.9 IEG:MU P126736 Kyrgyz Republic: EITI Compliance Phase I TF 99968 2011 2014 0.2 P126819 KG Coordination of Emergency Situations TF 99788 2011 2015 1.5 BUILDING CAPACITY FOR LOCAL P126873 TF 10208 2012 2015 1.6 LIR:S GOVERNANCE P127118 KG READ - Phase II TF 12550 2012 2015 1.7 P120435 RESULTS-BASED HEALTH TF 13310 2013 2019 11.0 LIR:S P120435 RESULTS-BASED HEALTH TF 99792 2013 2015 0.5 LIR:S P126278 HEALTH & SP 2 TF 15135 2013 2019 12.0 LIR:MS P128733 IDF-PUBLIC SECTOR INTERNAL AUDIT TF 12781 2013 2017 0.5 LIR:S P131322 Reports to Convention: UNCCD TF 12759 2013 2015 0.2 SOCIAL COHESION and COMMUNTIY DEV. P132577 TF 15803 2013 2018 2.0 LIR:MS (SPF) P132725 IDF-KG PVT SECTOR DEVT TF 13657 2013 2017 0.3 LIR:HS P144338 Support to Community Seed Funds TF 14029 2013 2018 2.8 LIR:MS P132490 Kyrgyz Global Partnership for Education TF 16201 2014 2018 8.0 LIR:S P132490 Kyrgyz Global Partnership for Education TF 16209 2014 2016 4.7 LIR:S P132920 KG State Assets Inventory and Registry TF 13478 2014 2017 0.7 LIR:S P144336 NWRMP-1 TF 16315 2014 2018 7.8 LIR:S P147876 Social Accountability on Health TF 15846 2014 2018 0.6 P148998 Building institutional framework TF 16497 2014 2018 0.5 LIR:MS P149533 Kyrgyz Republic: EITI PC-2 TF 17411 2014 2016 0.3 P133446 Electricity Supply Accountability TF 15210 2015 2016 0.5 LIR:MS P144874 KYRGYZ REP IMPLEMENTATION OF NSDS TF 17862 2015 2019 2.5 LIR:MS P145162 Pasture Management Improvement Project TF 16850 2015 2016 0.5 LIR:MS P146970 Third Village Investment Project TF 18709 2015 2016 0.4 LIR:MU P148471 Scaling-up PTP Learning in PFM - SUPPL TF 16021 2015 2018 1.1 LIR:S P149307 Building Effective Local Governance TF 18720 2015 2017 1.4 LIR:S P151993 KG Strengthening the Chamber of Account TF 17895 2015 2017 0.6 P132754 APNIP TF A0645 2016 2022 38.0 LIR:MS P148146 Judicial Development Project TF A0838 2016 2018 0.5 P151416 Urban Development Project TF 19293 2016 2017 0.6 LIR:S P151416 Urban Development Project TF A1993 2016 2018 0.2 LIR:S P153721 Integrated Forest Ecosystem Management TF A0750 2016 2022 4.1 P158654 Audit of DEBRA TF A1806 2016 2017 0.3 LIR:HS P151789 Kyrgyz Audit and Financial Reporting TF A3153 2017 2020 1.2 LIR:MS P154778 SRWSSDP TF A1605 2017 2017 0.3 LIR:S P155412 Integrated Dairy Productivity Improvement TF A1821 2017 2018 0.5 LIR:S P159699 Engaging Communities for Better Schools TF A5035 2017 2021 2.7 LIR:S P157079 Heat Supply Improvement Project TF A3993 2018 2018 0.4 LIR:S Total 133.3 Source: Client Connection as of 03/28/18 ** IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above Annexes CLR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Kyrgyz, FY14-17 Total Exit Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO FY ($M) NEGLIGIBLE TO 2014 P071063 GOV TA 6.3 UNSATISFACTORY LOW 2014 P088671 WATER MGMT IMPRVMT 20.3 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH SECOND LAND & REAL 2014 P108178 5.5 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT ESTATE REGISTRATION CAPACITY BLDG ECON MODERATELY 2014 P108525 2.8 HIGH MGT UNSATISFACTORY 2014 P123044 EMERGENCY RECOVERY 70.5 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT MODERATELY 2015 P084977 HEALTH & SOC PROT 44.8 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY 2015 P098949 VIP 2 28.3 SATISFACTORY MODERATE NATL. ROAD REHAB (Osh- 2015 P107608 47.8 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT Batken-Isfana) RURAL WATER SUPPLY & MODERATELY 2015 P110267 10.5 SIGNIFICANT SAN 2 SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2015 P112713 PFM CAPACITY BUILDING 7.5 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2015 P126034 DPO1 25.9 HIGH SATISFACTORY BISHKEK AND OSH URBAN 2016 P104994 26.2 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE Agricultural Productivity MODERATELY 2016 P118838 6.6 MODERATE Assistance Project UNSATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2017 P096409 OIP-2 29.5 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2016 P152440 Energy Sector DPO 23.3 HIGH SATISFACTORY Total 355.8 Source: Business Intelligence Key IEG Ratings as of 07/17/18 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Kyrgyz and Comparators, FY14-17 RDO % RDO % Total Total Outcome Outcome Moderate or Moderate or Region Evaluated Evaluated % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Lower Lower ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Kyrgz 355.8 15.0 77.3 66.7 11.6 20.0 ECA 17,141.5 132.0 94.7 81.1 56.0 49.2 World 86,945.8 938.0 85.6 74.6 50.1 41.8 Source: WB Business Intelligence as of 07/17/18 Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Kyrgyz and Comparators, FY14-17 Fiscal year 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ave FY14-17 Kyrgyz # Proj 11.0 10.0 9.0 11.0 10.3 # Proj At Risk 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 % Proj At Risk 13.0 4.0 22.0 13.0 13.0 Net Comm Amt 287.4 205.2 148.4 206.4 211.9 Comm At Risk 46.9 56.5 45.9 49.8 % Commit at Risk 16.3 38.1 22.3 25.6 ECA # Proj 202.0 207.0 197.0 202.0 202.0 # Proj At Risk 36.0 30.0 40.0 34.0 35.0 % Proj At Risk 13.0 12.0 17.0 13.0 13.8 Net Comm Amt 26,638.2 26,192.1 27,213.5 25,219.5 26,315.8 Comm At Risk 2,619.0 3,507.2 4,288.2 5,460.1 3,968.6 % Commit at Risk 9.8 13.4 15.8 21.7 15.2 World # Proj 1,386.0 1,402.0 1,398.0 1,459.0 1,411.3 # Proj At Risk 329.0 339.0 336.0 344.0 337.0 % Proj At Risk 20.0 22.0 21.0 22.0 21.3 Net Comm Amt 183,153.9 191,907.8 207,350.0 212,502.9 198,728.7 Comm At Risk 39,748.6 44,430.7 42,715.1 50,837.9 44,433.1 % Commit at Risk 21.7 23.2 20.6 23.9 22.4 Source: WB BI as of 8/9/18 Note: Only IBRD and IDA Agreement Type are included Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Kyrgyz, FY14-17 Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 Overall Result Kyrgyz Disbursement Ratio (%) 29.6 40.6 14.5 18.7 25.3 Inv Disb in FY 36.1 30.6 13.7 18.6 99.1 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 121.9 75.4 94.6 99.5 391.4 ECA Disbursement Ratio (%) 22.7 23.6 17.3 20.6 20.9 Inv Disb in FY 2,585.5 2,633.7 2,218.3 2,781.0 10,218.4 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 11,375.8 11,173.5 12,787.9 13,506.4 48,843.6 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 20.2 21.2 18.8 19.8 20.0 Inv Disb in FY 19,473.7 20,395.8 19,445.3 20,612.9 79,927.7 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 96,453.1 95,994.7 103,602.4 103,860.6 399,910.9 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. Business Intelligence disbursement ratio table as of 03/27/18 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 35 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Armenia, FY14-17 (US$ millions) Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY14 62.5 17.0 45.5 0.0 5.1 40.5 FY15 56.7 18.6 38.0 0.0 4.9 33.1 FY16 42.8 19.5 23.4 0.0 4.9 18.4 FY17 45.8 22.0 23.8 0.0 4.8 19.0 Report Total 207.8 77.1 130.7 0.0 19.7 111.0 World Bank Client Connection 03/28/18 Annex Table 10: Kyrgyz Republic Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance Development Partner 2014 2015 2016 Australia .. 0.11 0.02 Austria 0.39 0.48 0.4 Belgium .. .. .. Canada 0.67 0.92 0.65 Czech Republic 0.11 0.21 0.13 Denmark 0.18 0.19 -0.11 Finland 2.3 2.57 2.28 France 0.98 0.69 0.63 Germany 61.31 34.64 25.83 Greece 0.04 0.03 0 Hungary 0 0.02 0.04 Iceland .. .. .. Ireland .. .. .. Italy 0.07 0.11 .. Japan 21.24 42.12 12.34 Korea 2.36 7.97 9.32 Luxembourg .. 0.01 .. Netherlands .. .. 0.07 New Zealand .. .. .. Norway 1.63 1.3 0.48 Poland 0.18 0.38 0.03 Portugal .. .. .. Slovak Republic 0.07 0.02 0.02 Slovenia .. 0 .. Spain 0.04 .. 0.02 Sweden 1.52 0.05 0.04 Switzerland 28.95 26.85 22.4 United Kingdom 9.8 4.13 1.36 United States 49.31 49.54 45.44 DAC Countries, Total 181.15 172.34 121.39 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 36 Development Partner 2014 2015 2016 Azerbaijan .. 1 .. Bulgaria .. .. .. Croatia .. .. .. Cyprus .. .. .. Estonia 0.52 0.55 0.11 Israel 0.04 0.01 0.07 Kazakhstan 6.5 0.32 .. Kuwait 0.11 0.93 0.25 Latvia 0.02 0.02 0.02 Liechtenstein .. .. .. Lithuania 0 0 0 Malta .. .. .. Romania 0.02 0.02 0.02 Russia 202.87 322.81 198.81 Saudi Arabia .. .. .. Chinese Taipei .. .. .. Thailand .. 0 0 Timor-Leste .. .. .. Turkey 84.77 98.36 25.39 United Arab Emirates 1.59 3.05 1.75 Other donor countries .. .. .. Non-DAC Countries, Total 296.44 427.07 226.42 EU Institutions 34.2 33.51 55.92 International Monetary Fund, Total -5.79 11.17 5.64 IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) -5.79 11.17 5.64 Regional Development Banks, Total 44.01 57.13 40.45 African Development Bank, Total .. .. .. African Development Bank [AfDB] .. .. .. African Development Fund [AfDF] .. .. .. Asian Development Bank, Total 45.03 53.29 41.28 AsDB Special Funds 45.03 53.29 41.28 Inter-American Development Bank, Total .. .. .. IDB Special Fund .. .. .. Caribbean Development Bank [CarDB] .. .. .. Council of Europe Development Bank [CEB] .. .. .. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development [EBRD] .. .. .. Islamic Development Bank [IsDB] -1.03 3.84 -0.83 United Nations, Total 11.61 18.6 17.94 Food and Agriculture Organisation [FAO] .. .. .. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 37 Development Partner 2014 2015 2016 International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 0.25 0.06 0.08 IFAD 1.69 3.47 5.51 International Labour Organisation [ILO] 0.06 0.16 0.18 UNAIDS 0.06 0.08 0.01 UNDP 2.33 2.11 1.97 UNECE .. .. .. UNEP .. .. .. UNFPA 0.8 0.74 0.71 UNHCR .. 2.17 1.53 UNICEF 1.75 1.42 1.37 UN Peacebuilding Fund [UNPBF] 3.68 7.76 5.58 UNRWA .. .. .. UNTA .. .. .. WFP 0.78 0 .. World Health Organisation [WHO] 0.2 0.63 1 World Tourism Organisation [UNWTO] .. .. .. World Bank Group, Total 40.21 23.41 25.9 World Bank, Total 40.21 23.41 25.9 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [IBRD] .. .. .. International Development Association [IDA] 40.21 23.41 25.9 International Finance Corporation [IFC] .. .. .. Other Multilateral, Total 24.76 26.76 21.59 Adaptation Fund .. .. .. Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa [BADEA] .. .. .. Arab Fund (AFESD) .. .. .. Climate Investment Funds [CIF] .. .. .. Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 2.54 2.99 1.54 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 3.64 3.2 3.23 Global Fund 10.85 13.2 10.27 Global Green Growth Institute [GGGI] .. .. .. Montreal Protocol .. .. .. Nordic Development Fund [NDF] -0.13 -0.11 -0.11 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] 0.16 0.51 .. OSCE 7.71 6.97 6.67 Other Multilaterals .. .. .. Multilateral Agencies, Total 149.00 170.58 167.44 Source: OECD Stat database as of 03/28/2018 2017 data not yet available. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 38 Annex Table 11: Economic and Social indicators for Kyrgyz Republic, 2014-2016 Kyrgyz ECA World Series Name 2014 2015 2016 Average 2014-2016 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 1.9 2.7 GDP per capita growth 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.5 (annual %) GNI per capita, PPP (current 3,210 3,310 3,410 3,310 30,431 15,688 international $) GNI per capita, Atlas method 1,250 1,180 1,100 1,177 24,504 10,602 (current US$) Inflation, consumer prices 7.5 6.5 0.4 4.8 0.4 1.9 (annual %) Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% 17.1 15.9 14.9 16.0 2.2 3.8 of GDP) Industry, value added (% of 27.8 28.4 29.2 28.5 25.7 27.7 GDP) Services, etc., value added 55.1 55.6 55.9 55.6 72.1 68.5 (% of GDP) Gross fixed capital formation 32.8 33.0 32.5 32.8 20.2 23.4 (% of GDP) External Accounts Exports of goods and 37.4 35.2 36.8 36.5 41.6 29.4 services (% of GDP) Imports of goods and 87.7 75.8 71.9 78.4 38.4 28.7 services (% of GDP) Current account balance (% -17.4 -15.8 -10.1 -14.4 of GDP) External debt stocks (% of 101.4 117.0 125.3 114.6 GNI) Total debt service (% of GNI) 5.6 6.4 7.1 6.4 Total reserves in months of 3.5 4.2 4.7 4.1 7.3 13.0 imports Fiscal Accounts1 General government revenue 35.4 35.6 34.7 35.3 (% of GDP) General government total 34.9 36.8 39.3 37.0 expenditure (% of GDP) General government net lending/borrowing (% of 0.5 -1.2 -4.6 -1.7 GDP) General government gross 52.3 64.9 58.1 58.4 debt (% of GDP) Health Life expectancy at birth, total 70.4 70.7 .. 70.5 77.3 71.8 (years) Immunization, DPT (% of 96.0 97.0 96.0 96.3 93.1 85.4 children ages 12-23 months) Improved sanitation facilities 93.2 93.3 .. 93.3 93.1 67.3 (% of population with access) Improved water source (% of 89.2 90.0 .. 89.6 98.5 90.7 population with access) CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 39 Kyrgyz ECA World Series Name 2014 2015 2016 Average 2014-2016 Mortality rate, infant (per 20.9 19.9 18.8 19.9 8.8 31.4 1,000 live births) Education School enrollment, 25.3 27.6 .. 26.5 74.6 48.1 preprimary (% gross) School enrollment, primary 107.7 107.4 .. 107.5 103.3 104.2 (% gross) School enrollment, 90.8 92.1 .. 91.4 106.0 76.4 secondary (% gross) School enrollment, tertiary (% 45.9 46.9 .. 46.4 65.1 35.3 gross) Population Population, total 5,835,500.0 5,956,900.0 6,082,700.0 5,958,366.7 907,504,936.3 7,355,447,388.5 Population growth (annual %) 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.5 1.2 Population, female (% of 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4 51.5 49.6 total) Urban population (% of total) 35.6 35.7 35.9 35.7 70.9 53.8 Source: World Development Indicators database as of 04/18/2018 1. Data from the IMF's World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018. Annexes CLR Review 40 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Kyrgyz Republic Investments Committed in FY14-FY17 Project Project Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net Cmt FY Primary Sector Name ID Status Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm 34958 2015 Closed Finance & Insurance 4,000 4,000 - 4,000 4,000 - - - - 35465 2015 Active Finance & Insurance 500 500 - 500 - - 500 - 500 35518 2015 Active Finance & Insurance 1,000 1,000 - 1,000 760 - 240 - 240 35550 2015 Closed Finance & Insurance 300 300 - 300 210 - 90 - 90 32741 2014 Active Finance & Insurance 10,000 10,000 - 10,000 - - 10,000 - 10,000 33030 2014 Active Finance & Insurance 4,000 4,000 - 4,000 - - 4,000 - 4,000 34103 2014 Closed Finance & Insurance 500 500 - 500 1 - 500 - 500 34155 2014 Closed Finance & Insurance 500 500 - 500 500 - - - - 34852 2014 Closed Finance & Insurance 330 330 - 330 135 - 195 - 195 Sub-Total 21,130 21,130 - 21,130 5,606 - 15,525 - 15,525 Investments Committed pre-FY14 but active during FY14-17 Project CMT Project Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net Primary Sector Name ID FY Status Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm 30553 2011 Active Finance & Insurance 1,275 - 1,275 1,275 - - 1,275 1,275 1,275 26103 2007 Active Finance & Insurance 300 - 300 300 - - 300 300 300 9837 2001 Active Finance & Insurance 1,400 - 1,400 1,400 - - 1,400 1,400 1,400 Sub-Total 2,975 - 2,975 2,975 - - 2,975 2,975 2,975 TOTAL 24,105 21,130 2,975 24,105 5,606 - 18,500 2,975 18,500 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of 12/31/17 Annexes CLR Review 41 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Kyrgyz Republic Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Funds, Project Name Start End Business ID Status US$ FY FY Line 601612 Kyrgyz Republic Dairy Development 2017 2019 ACTIVE TAC 641,250 601612 Kyrgyz Republic Dairy Development 2017 2019 ACTIVE TAC 783,750 600458 Bishkek Street Lighting PPP 2016 2016 TERMINATED CAS 345,000 600527 Kyrgyz Road Safety 2016 2016 TERMINATED CAS 120,000 600527 Kyrgyz Road Safety 2016 2016 TERMINATED CAS 180,000 Management Contract for Kyrgyz 600077 2015 2016 TERMINATED CAS 1,724,000 Electricity Distribution Companies 599439 Kyrgyz cold storage 2014 2015 TERMINATED PPP 260,000 599486 Kyrgyz Republic Investment Climate 2014 2018 ACTIVE TAC 146,419 599486 Kyrgyz Republic Investment Climate 2014 2018 ACTIVE TAC 732,094 599486 Kyrgyz Republic Investment Climate 2014 2018 ACTIVE TAC 439,256 599486 Kyrgyz Republic Investment Climate 2014 2018 ACTIVE TAC 146,419 599486 Kyrgyz Republic Investment Climate 2014 2018 ACTIVE TAC 1,464,187 599860 Kyrgyz Health PPP 2014 2019 ACTIVE CAS 395,353 599860 Kyrgyz Health PPP 2014 2019 ACTIVE CAS 323,470 Sub-Total 7,701,197 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY14 but active during FY14-17 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Funds, Project Name Start End Business ID Status US$ FY FY Line 597327 Central Asia Tax Project 2013 2018 ACTIVE GOV 4,916,715 585907 Kyrgyzstan Housing Microfinance 2012 2019 ACTIVE FAM 2,190,000 592127 Zalkar Bank privatization 2012 2014 CLOSED PPP 387,446 563789 Transformation for MFIs in Kyrgyzstan 2010 2018 ACTIVE FIG 3,102,089 569391 Kyrgyzstan FM Infrastructure 2010 2019 ACTIVE FAM 2,447,669 Sub-Total 13,043,919 TOTAL 20,745,116 Source: IFC AS Data as of 1/31/18 Annexes CLR Review 42 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Kyrgyz Republic, FY14 - FY17 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Financial Markets Commercial Banking 10,000,000 - - - 10,000,000 Microfinance 5,260,000 5,165,000 (4,295,000) (760,500) 5,369,500 Infrastructure Electric Power (533,414) - - - (533,414) Total 14,726,586 5,165,000 (4,295,000) (760,500) 14,836,086 Source: IFC MIS as of 3/29/18 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Kyrgyz Republic, 2014-2017 Project Max Gross ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Status Issuance No MIGA activities during the review period Total - Source: MIGA 3/29/17