Connections Transport & ICT 98289 Impact Evaluation to Inform and Transform Investments in Transport & ICT Nancy Vandycke, Arianna Legovini, Aleksandra Liaplina and Vincenzo di Maro 0.4 % A new World Bank initiative, “Impact Evaluation (IE) — Connect for Impact,” aims to radically transform and better inform the way that transport and information and communications technology (ICT) projects are designed and implemented. Although multilateral lending to this key strategic sector comprises 29 percent of all global assistance, only 0.4 percent of impact evaluations have had transport as a subject. This initiative aims to fill the gap and bring high quality and valuable feedback to projects — improving design, enabling mid-course corrections, and informing The percentage of impact ex-post evaluations. evaluations on Transport For the first time, this initiative will offer a systematic sector approach to generating concrete evidence of what works, what does not, where, when and why. It will greatly increase the impact and value- add of investments in transport and ICT projects—which is especially important given global trends toward increasing urbanization, with 70 percent of the world’s population expected to live in cities by 2050. Introduction with an increasing portion of multilateral lending addressing more complicated development chal- Given their strategic importance to development, lenges, such as high-density multi-modal develop- why have transport and ICT been so under-repre- ment corridors or urban mobility. sented in impact evaluation? As places that attract infrastructure may differ from those that do not, it has been difficult to estimate the causal impact of What is Impact Evaluation? investments. As a result, the assessment of invest- Impact evaluation (IE) demonstrates a causal link ment programs’ outcomes in the transport sector between an intervention and its impacts by com- has traditionally relied on descriptive analysis, paring a treatment group with a control group. IE failing to establish causal impact on job locations, tests different interventions to identify the most migration patterns, land density, trade and market effective treatment, and understand the mecha- efficiency. Furthermore, it has been equally dif- nisms through which an intervention works (or ficult to develop the cross-sector data infrastruc- not). This facilitates continuous experimentation ture needed to measure outcomes. and feedback into design and implementation — a real benefit over traditional evaluation. Current Yet, the need for impact evaluations in these sec- efforts in the Transport and ICT sectors build on IE tors is even greater now than in the past. ICT has methods developed and refined since early work introduced substantial innovations into every walk in health and education, and more recently in sec- of life, including transport. And transport systems tors such as private sector development, agricul- themselves have grown increasingly multifaceted, ture, energy, and environment. June 2015 Note 17 Impact Evaluation Contributions urban transport systems right will be critical to ad- dress growing mobility needs. Impact evaluations have proven to be an extreme- ly powerful for maximizing returns on investments. High-density corridors, such as highways and The systematic analysis and intellectual rigor national roads, freight and passenger railway involved in IE can also give donors and govern- links, inland waterways and airport infrastructure, ments added confidence in their decisions about constitute the backbone of a country’s transport current and future interventions. The benefits are network. Optimizing the transport network by many. IE’s evidence-based approach can improve looking at multimodality and spatial planning can delivery, increase efficiency, and boost impact. It support more efficient supply chains, reduce on- can also answer many questions regarding which road freight transport costs, and facilitate regional transport and ICT interventions can increase pro- integration. ductivity, economic growth, and job creation. In addition, it can help in the design and implemen- Transport and ICT are critical for addressing tation of interventions to promote environmental- greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and moving ly-sustainable solutions to transport challenges. towards more sustainable development. Transport accounts for 23 percent of GHG emissions, but Recent research demonstrates that the “delivery its contribution to GHG emissions is expected to of projects with impact evaluation is significantly grow exponentially due to rapid urbanization and timelier: common delays are avoided and the gap economic growth in developing countries. between planned and actual disbursements is re- duced by half.” Greater efficiency means quicker “IE – Connect for Impact” results on the ground, particularly vital in fragile The World Bank’s new impact evaluation program and conflict-affected countries, as well as poten- for transport and ICT will develop an analytical tial financial savings. framework for prioritizing and filling knowledge IE results can factor directly into project design. gaps. It will build the necessary knowledge and Such feedback can help determine whether ad- data for transport and ICT investments in general, justments need to be made: such as scaling up a and for conducting IEs in particular. It will also in- specific intervention that has been very effective, clude iterative experimentation during implemen- or discontinuing the interventions which have tation to inform mid-course decisions, improving been less so. IE can give policymakers a deeper delivery and effectiveness. Finally, the initiative understanding of design challenges, and the con- will help build capacity for evidence-based deci- tinuous feedback loop can help to better inform sion-making across development banks and client project design throughout the project cycle. country institutions. Working in partnership with all relevant stakehold- IE and the Transport and ICT Agenda ers, the Bank’s program will develop a sector- IE evidence can help with a host of new and in- specific analytical framework for IE. It will pilot creasingly large and complex sector challenges. methodologies tailored to the sector which can Rapid urbanization will require substantial invest- become models for implementation. Most impor- ments in improved public transport, urban plan- tantly, the success of this initiative is expected to ning, and car ownership and use—as well as in drive the use of IE to design and implement better technology to reduce the need to travel. Getting interventions that will benefit all concerned. Gertler, Paul J.; Martinez, Sebastian; Premand, Patrick; Rawlings, Laura B.; Vermeersch, Christel M. J.. 2011. Impact Evaluation in Practice. World For more information on this topic: Bank. © World Bank. openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2550 DIME: www.worldbank.org/dime Arianna Legovini., Vincenzo di Maro and Caio Piza. 2015. Impact DIME Policy Outreach Briefs: bit.ly/1FJwxvG Evaluation Helps Deliver Development Projects. Policy Research. Working Paper WPS7157, World Bank, Washington, DC. Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl. The notes are available at www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. June 2015 Note 17