WORLDBANKGROUP G D R AS1A(ECA) ANDCENTRAL ELUROPE RIKPROF]LES AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE gGDP $183 billion*0 Qi Czech Repu b o . The Czech Republic's population small contribution. The Czech and economy are exposed to Republic's per capita GDP was earthquakes and floods, with $17,300. floods posing the greater risk. The mod- POLAND el results for present-day risk shown in This map displays GDP by this risk profile are based on population province in the Czech Republic, and gross domestic product (GDP) esti- with greater color saturation mates for 2015. The estimated damage indicating greater GDP within caused by historical events is inflated to a province. The blue circles nr 2015 US dollars. indicate the risk of experiencing floods and the orange circles Close to 75 percent of the population the risk of earthquakes in terms P of the Czech Republic lives in urban of normalized annual average of Vyhoocsk environments. The country's GDP was affected GDP. The largest circles StredoceIky approximately US$183 billion in 2015, represent the greatest normal- with 60 percent derived from services, ized risk. The risk is estimated Zapadoces , C r raky most of the remainder generated by using flood and earthquake risk industry; and agriculture making a models. The table displays the provinces TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES at greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative terms, as hoceiky shown in the table, the province at greatest risk of floods is Stre- EARTHQUAKE docesky. and the one at greatest GERMANY ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF risk of earthquakes is Severo-REPULIC AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) moravsky. In absolute terms, Stredocesky f Severomoravsky 0 the province at greatest risk of AUSTR A Vychodocesky F Zapadocesky 0 floods is Praha, and the one at AnalAverage of Affected GDP (%) GOP (billions of $) Severocesky 3 Vychodocesky 0AnulAeaeoAfctdGPDP(iinsf lihocesky 3 Severacesky a greatest risk of earthquakes is Zapadocesky 2 Jihomoravsky 0 Severomoravsky. There is a high correlation lihomoravsky 2 Jihocesky 0 (r=0.95) between the Praha 2 Stredocesky 0 1 EARTHQUAKE 4r population and GDP of a Severomoravsky I Praha 0 province. o NegligibLe Czech RpublicWORLDBANKGROUP Q|G DR I51K ANOFIEENRL5AEA he most devastating flood in more than once in the same year, or the Czech Republic since it to appear inconsecutive years, or not gained its independence in to happen at all over a long period of 1993 occurred in 2002. It killed 18 time. people and caused over $3 billion in damage. A 1997 flood caused 29 If the 10- and 100-year bars are the fatalities and almost $3 billion in same height, then the impact of a 10- damage. More recently, flooding in year event is as large as that of a 100- 2013 affected over 1 million people year event, and the annual average of and caused close to $850 million in affected GDP is dominated by events POLAND damage. Further floods in 2009 and that happen relatively frequently. 2010 caused over $150 million in If the impact of a 100-year event is damage per event. much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make This map depicts the impact of flood- a larger contribution to the annual ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP age GDPs affected, with greater color seems small, less frequent and more saturation indicating higher percent- intense events can still have large ages. The bar graphs represent GDP impacts. affected by floods with return periods Z verom ravsky of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the exposed to flooding in the Czech bars also shows the annual average of Republic is about 200,000 and the GDP GDP affected flods,annual b ffeced by floods. average affected GDP about $4 billion. For most provinces, in which When a flood has a 10-year return the impacts from 10- and 100-year period, it means the probability of floods do not differ much, relatively occurrence of a flood of that magni- frequent floods have large impacts tude or greater is 10 percent per year. on these averages. For the few in GERMA A 100-year flood has a probability which the 100-year impacts are much SL0VAK REPUBLIC of occurrence of 1 percent per year. greater than the 10-year impacts, less This means that over a long period of frequent events make a significant 10 and 100-year return periods time, a flood of that magnitude will, contribution to the annual average of AUSTRIA on average, occur once every 100 affected GDP. years. It does not mean a 100-year 00 flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a ArLalaverageI flood ohf any return pe ri od to occ ur 10-year 100-year az c * Rep blicWORLDBANKGROUP Re umi Czec GF F RROP R EL RIS[ ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA) AND PROFILES T he Czech Republic has expe- If the 10- and 100-year bars are the rienced several earthquakes same height, then the impact of of magnitude 7 in its history 10-year event is as large as that of a including one in 1786 in Tesin, one 100-year event, and the annual av- in 1872 in Gera, and one in 1901 in erage of affected GDP is dominated Trutnov. by events that happen relatively fre- quently. If the impact of a 100-year This map depicts the impact of event is much greater than that of earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, a 10-year event, then less frequent represented as percentages of their events make larger contributions to annual average GDPs affected, with the annual average of affected GDP. greater color saturation indicating Thus, even if a province's annual higher percentages. The bar graphs affected GDP seems small, less fre- represent GDP affected by earth- quent and more intense events can quakes with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars The annual average population af- ae also shows the annual average of fected by earthquakes in the Czech * e Vychodocesky GDP affected by earthquakes. Republic is about 6,000 and the Pa t Stredocesky annual average affected GDP about . When an earthquake has a 10-year Whn neatquk hsa 0yer $100 million. The annual averag- everornoravsky $aaoesy~ return period, it means the prob- es of fatalities and capital losses Zapadocesky ability of occurrence of an earth- caused by earthquakes are less than quake of that magnitude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year earthquake has a probability of losses caused by more intense, less lihomoravsky occurrence of t percent per year. frequent events can be substantially hhocesky This means that over a long period larger than the annual averages. of time, an earthquake of that mag- For example, an earthquake with nitude will, on average, occur once a GA percent annual probability every 100 years. It does not mean of occurrence (a 250-year return a 100-year earthquake will occur period event) could cause nearly Affected GP for AnnuaL Average of Affected GDP exactly once every 100 years. In $800 million in capital loss (about 1 10 and w0-year return periods fact, it is possible for an earthquake percent of GDP). AUSTRIA One block 4 of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to 2 appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period Anua -Lh 1 of time. 10-year 100-year Cze h Rpub icWORLDBANKGROUP E|GFDRR s"AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS Cs) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES T he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest e annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in Severomoravsky, which is not surprising, oe ao,; given the economic importance of the province. on~Sk oo ooadsek 00 100 oe45 e EARTHQUAKE he exceedance probability curves display the GDP EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 Iaffected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 100 45varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different Ile10 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected S GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts 2080QAK an eimaeda$20 pbillion. Inu2080dhowever theafetD 5 35 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of cli ate EXCEE2015 ILT 2 1 AN 20 0E 10BA C E A C PR B BLT CU V , 0 5A D20 0afromcte GDPVE b ,same t ey vlofs ntwud erng fos rb ae u 208 a2 30 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if the 60 SCzech Republic had experienced a 100-year return period 20 flo vn!iin 2015, flood event h affected 05 the ffce GDP ol have D would aebe been 20 $40 billion to about $90 billion. If the Czech Republic had 5 4experienced 25 Czc Reu exposed li assets had a 250-year yer earthquake event eur the in 2015, ero 41;_ affected DP GDP would have been about $5 billion. In 2080, Ru 100iod0 10 p0 A00 ars) the estimated affected GDP from the same type of event ~etun ferlo (yars)Retrn prio (yets)would range from about $10 billion to about $40 billion, 0 2 1 04 10 2 1 due populationgrowh, urbanization, andmthe increasein :Probablity (%) .. Probabilti (%) . - exoe ses All historical data on floods arnd Belw, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DATzInternationalfDisaterPDatabase (Uniiversite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emndat.be, andl. Daniell earthquakes are from, respectively, D.Guhae-Sapir R? arnd A. Schaefer, 'Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Rsk~Assessment Country and Province Profiling," finalreport to GFJDRR, 2014. Darnage estimates for all historical eventslhave been inflated to 2015 US$.