Report No: AUS5118 . Republic of Indonesia Indonesia Economic Quarterly FY14 Compilation of the July 2013, October 2013, December 2013 and March 2014 Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reports . June 2014 . EASPI EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC . Document of the World Bank . . . Standard Disclaimer: This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. . Copyright Statement: . The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, http://www.copyright.com/. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail pubrights@worldbank.org. This volume provides a compilation of the four editions of the World Bank’s Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) produced over FY2014 (both the English and Indonesian language versions). The IEQ is a product of the World Bank’s Jakarta office. The reports were compiled by the Macro and Fiscal Policy Cluster, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network, under the guidance of Jim Brumby, Sector Manager and Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist and Economic Advisor, and Ashley Taylor, Senior Economist. The team worked under the overall guidance of Sudhir Shetty (Sector Director, EASPR), Stefan G. Koeberle and subsequently Rodrigo Chaves (Country Director, EACIF) and received valuable input from Bert Hofman (Director and Chief Economist, EAPCE), Deepak Mishra (Lead Economist, EAPSR), Ekaterine Vashakmadze (Senior Economist, DECPG), and from the cross-sectoral IEQ Editorial Board comprised of members from across the Indonesia country office. Led by Alex Sienaert and with responsibility for Part A, editing and production, the core project team comprised Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Brendan Coates, Masyita Crystallin, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Shakira Jones, Elitza Mileva, Michele Savini Zangrandi and Violeta Vulovic. Invaluable administrative support was provided by Titi Ananto and Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Dissemination was organized by Nur Raihan, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan and Nugroho Sunjoyo, under the guidance of Dini Sari Djalal. Numerous contributors from across the World Bank, as well as external contributors from institutions in Indonesia, on topical issues and Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges are listed in the acknowledgements page of each report, below. The IEQ reports are a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, supported by funding from the Australian Government under the Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA) program. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in these reports do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent, or the Australian Government. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. All editions of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly, along with links to press releases and launch presentations of the various reports can be found at the following website: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/publication/indonesia-economic-quarterly-reports Compilation of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) FY 2014 Reports – English language versions • Adjusting to Pressures, July 2013 • Continuing adjustment, October 2013 • Slower growth; high risks, December 2013 • Investment in Flux, March 2014 July 2013 Adjusting to pressures INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Adjusting to pressures July 2013 Preface The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia’s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia’s evolving economy. The IEQ is a product of the World Bank’s Jakarta office. The report is compiled by the Macro and Fiscal Policy Cluster, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network, under the guidance of Jim Brumby, Sector Manager and Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist and Economic Advisor, and Ashley Taylor, Senior Economist. The core project team, with responsibility for Part A (economic update), editing and production, comprises Gomez Agou, Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Fitria Fitrani, Brendan Coates, Ahya Ihsan, Shakira Jones, Alex Sienaert, Ashley Taylor and Violeta Vulovic. Administrative support is provided by Titi Ananto and Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Dissemination is organized by Dini Sari Djalal, Farhana Asnap, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan, Nugroho, Marcellinus Winata and Randy Salim. This edition of the IEQ also includes contributions from Timothy Brown, Werner Kornexl and Yue Man Lee (Section A.7, haze impacts discussion), (Edgar Janz, Matthew Wai-Poi and Vivi Alatas (Section B.1, social assistance measures), Mitchell Wiener and Iene Muliati (Section B.2, SJSN), Claudia Rokx and Roger Shrimpton (Section C.1 on nutrition), Erwin Ariadharma, Sheheryar Banuri, Zahid Hasnain, Richard Hooper, Matthew Kearney, Philip Keefer, Brendan Murphy, Staffan Synnerstrom and Maria Tambunan (Section C.2 on bureaucracy reform). Key input was also received from Ekaterine Vashakmadze (international update), Djauhari Sitorus, Neni Lestari and The Fei Ming (banking sector, credit and corporate sector update), Mark Ahern (bureaucracy reform), Darren Dorkin, Mega Kapoor, Eko Setyo Pambudi, Leslie Elder and Puti Marzoeki (nutrition). Soekarno Wirokartono provided in-depth comments. Edgar Janz provided invaluable editing assistance. This report is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, supported by funding from the Australian Government – – AusAID, under the Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA) program. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent, AusAID or the Australian Government. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Cover and chapter photographs are by Josh Estey and copyright of the World Bank. All rights reserved. For more World Bank analysis of Indonesia’s economy: For information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia, please visit www.worldbank.org/id. In order to be included on an email distribution list for this Quarterly series and related publications, please contact madriani@worldbank.org. For questions and comments relating to this publication, please contact asienaert@worldbank.org. Table of contents PREFACE III   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: ADJUSTING TO PRESSURES VI   A. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL UPDATE 1  1.  Emerging market assets fell sharply in recent months 1  2.  The revised Budget: subsidized fuel prices raised and a larger deficit projected 3  3.  Indonesia’s financial, currency and credit markets: a turbulent quarter 8  4.  The outlook for the Indonesian economy has weakened 10  5.  Inflation will increase temporarily following the rise in subsidized fuel prices 15  6.  Indonesia’s current account deficit persists despite slowing import growth 18  7.  Risks to the outlook remain heightened on domestic and external grounds 23  B. SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA’S ECONOMY 26   1.  Examining the fuel subsidy compensation package 26  a.  Short-term programs to protect poor and vulnerable households.............................................................. 27  b.  Long-term programs to promote poor and vulnerable households ........................................................... 30  2.  Indonesia’s challenge: implementing the new social security system 34  a.  Putting the change in context: Where Indonesia is now ............................................................................ 34  b.  Coverage, cost and fiscal sustainability considerations ............................................................................. 36  c.  Administration, governance and capacity considerations.......................................................................... 37  d.  Communication is key as part of a lengthy implementation process ........................................................ 39  e.  Summary: a long journey towards comprehensive social security coverage.............................................. 39  C. INDONESIA 2014 AND BEYOND: A SELECTIVE LOOK 40   1.  Indonesia: Facing up to the Double Burden of Malnutrition 40  a.  The nature and serious consequences of the Double Burden of Malnutrition .......................................... 40  b.  The Double Burden of Malnutrition is a serious and urgent problem in Indonesia ................................. 41  c.  Understanding the causes of DBM in Indonesia ....................................................................................... 43  d.  Addressing DBM in Indonesia ................................................................................................................... 45  2.  Bureaucracy reform in Indonesia: progress and pitfalls 46  a.  Impact of bureaucracy reform .................................................................................................................... 46  b.  Sustainability of bureaucracy reform .......................................................................................................... 47  c.  Restructuring and rightsizing in the Government of Indonesia ................................................................ 48  d.  Streamlining government agencies............................................................................................................. 49  e.  Appointing staff to new structures .............................................................................................................. 49  f.  Constraints and reform options for right-sizing ......................................................................................... 50  APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 51   J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Emerging markets had a poor Q2, with EM equities further underperforming US stocks… ........................................................................................................................ 2  Figure 2: …coinciding with significant divergence in economic momentum across major economies .................................................................................................................... 2  Figure 3: Indonesian equities and domestic government bonds have also weakened sharply since May… ........................................................................................................................... 2  Figure 4: …amidst heavy net offshore selling of bonds and equities ............................................... 2  Figure 5: In coming years, fiscal savings are substantial, relative to “business as usual” spending on fuel subsidies .......................................................................................................... 5   Figure 6: The Rupiah has appreciated on a nominal and real trade-weighted basis so far in 2013 9  Figure 7: Investment lending has eased in line with the slowing pace of real investment growth . 9  Figure 8: Residential house prices continue to accelerate despite slowing property lending growth…..................................................................................................................... 10  Figure 9: …with commercial property in Jabodetabek recording rapid price growth amid strong demand....................................................................................................................... 10  Figure 10: Real GDP growth continued to ease, with the contribution from investment narrowing further .......................................................................................................................... 11  Figure 11: Nominal GDP remains weak, in line with weak growth in the GDP deflator................ 11  Figure 12: The moderation in investment has largely been driven by a sharp drop off in foreign machinery and equipment, and transportation.......................................................... 11  Figure 13: Mining sector output continues to be weak ................................................................... 12  Figure 14: Continued weakness in capital imports points to more weakness in fixed investment growth…..................................................................................................................... 13  Figure 15: …while high frequency economic indicators are suggestive of a continued moderation in growth .................................................................................................................... 13  Figure 16: Projected headline inflation, with and without fuel subsidy reform.............................. 15  Figure 17: Inflation has moderated in recent months… ................................................................ 16  Figure 18: …as prices for a number of key food staples have fallen .............................................. 16  Figure 19: The balance of payments returned to deficit in Q1 ........................................................ 18  Figure 20: The non-oil and gas trade surplus widened in Q1 2013, before slipping back into a small deficit in April… ............................................................................................... 19  Figure 21: …while a sizable oil and gas trade deficit has opened up since mid-2012 .................... 19  Figure 22: Capital goods have led a broad-based decline in imports… ......................................... 20  Figure 23: …while Indonesia’s export revenues are still pressured................................................ 20  Figure 24: Indonesia’s exports have underperformed most of its regional peers........................... 20  Figure 25: Manufacturing exports have been flat, amidst recent signs of weaker manufacturing export growth in Asia ................................................................................................. 20  Figure 26: Low quality coal accounts for 20 percent of Indonesian coal exports and could be hit by a Chinese ban ........................................................................................................ 21   Figure 27: External debt solvency metrics have improved but some liquidity risk indicators have increased .................................................................................................................... 23  Figure 28: Private external debt is widely distributed across economic sectors ............................ 23  Figure 29: Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves are substantial but so are external exposures . 24  Figure 30: Savings support a range of programs ............................................................................. 27  Figure 31: With BLSM, the poverty rate will continue to drop ....................................................... 30  Figure 32: Programs will significantly increase coverage of poor and vulnerable households… .. 31  Figure 33: …and benefit levels are increasing................................................................................. 31  Figure 34: A growing proportion of middle-aged Indonesians are overweight.............................. 42  Figure 35: Hypertension is a significant problem amongst Indonesian adults… ......................... 44  Figure 36: …and a high proportion of Indonesians do not get enough physical exercise ............ 44  J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA iv LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES Appendix Figure 1: Quarterly and annual GDP growth.................................................................. 51  Appendix Figure 2: Contributions to GDP expenditures ............................................................... 51  Appendix Figure 3: Contributions to GDP production................................................................... 51  Appendix Figure 4: Motor cycle and motor vehicle sales ............................................................... 51  Appendix Figure 5: Consumer indicators........................................................................................ 51  Appendix Figure 6: Industrial production indicators ..................................................................... 51  Appendix Figure 7: Real trade flows ............................................................................................... 52  Appendix Figure 8: Balance of payments........................................................................................ 52  Appendix Figure 9: Goods exports .................................................................................................. 52  Appendix Figure 10: Goods imports ................................................................................................ 52  Appendix Figure 11: Reserves and portfolio capital inflows ........................................................... 52  Appendix Figure 12: Inflation and monetary policy........................................................................ 52  Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI ........................................................................... 53  Appendix Figure 14: Inflation comparison across countries .......................................................... 53  Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice prices.......................................................... 53  Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate .................................................................... 53  Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices.................................................................................. 53  Appendix Figure 18: Dollar index and Rupiah exchange rate ........................................................ 53  Appendix Figure 19: 5-year local currency government bond yields .............................................. 54  Appendix Figure 20: Sovereign USD Bond EMBI spreads ............................................................ 54  Appendix Figure 21: International commercial bank lending ........................................................ 54  Appendix Figure 22: Banking sector indicators .............................................................................. 54  Appendix Figure 23: Government debt ........................................................................................... 54  Appendix Figure 24: External debt.................................................................................................. 54  LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Under the baseline scenario, Indonesia’s growth is projected at 5.9 percent in 2013 ..... viii  Table 2: Commodity prices remain under pressure .......................................................................... 3  Table 3: In 2013, fiscal savings from the fuel subsidy reform are modest, net of the sizable compensation package ................................................................................................ 5  Table 4: The World Bank projects a fiscal deficit of 2.1 percent, slightly lower than in the proposed revised Budget ............................................................................................. 5  Table 5: Budget execution for Jan – May has improved compared to previous years but remains challenging ................................................................................................................... 6  Table 6: Under the baseline scenario GDP growth of 5.9 percent is projected for 2013, rising to 6.2 percent in 2014 ...................................................................................................... 14  Table 7: Compensation will reach 15.5 million households ............................................................ 27  Table 8: The DBM situation of Indonesia is one of the worst in ASEAN ..................................... 42  Table 9: There is survey evidence of better HR performance amongst bureaucracy reform- participating institutions ........................................................................................... 47  Table 10: Selected constraints to restructuring and right-sizing and high level reform options ... 50  LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES Appendix Table 1: Budget outcomes and projections .................................................................... 55  Appendix Table 2: Balance of Payments ......................................................................................... 55  Appendix Table 3: Indonesia’s historical macroeconomic indicators at a glance ......................... 56  Appendix Table 4: Indonesia’s development indicators at a glance .............................................. 57  LIST OF BOXES Box 1: China’s proposed ban on low quality coal imports poses a risk to coal exports ................. 21  Box 2: External debt levels remain modest but liquidity risk has risen ......................................... 22  J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA v Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Executive summary: Adjusting to pressures Adjusting to mounting The second quarter of 2013 was an eventful one as Indonesia’s economy, policy settings and pressures and new financial markets adjusted to pressures which have been mounting over recent quarters and events, the second to shifts in the global environment. Following slightly weaker-than-expected growth in the quarter of 2013 saw first quarter, there are signs that domestic demand, particularly investment, has continued to significant economic, moderate. On the fiscal front, the combination of lower revenues and higher subsidy policy and financial spending continued to pressure public finances. A revised Budget, incorporating a long- market developments awaited increase in subsidized fuel prices, along with a comprehensive compensation in Indonesia package to reduce the impact of higher fuel prices on the poor, was approved on June 17. Meanwhile, international financial markets have reacted strongly to the prospect of quantitative easing in the US winding down in coming quarters, triggering a major sell-off in emerging market assets, including Indonesia, prompting Bank Indonesia (BI) to adjust interest rates higher. International financial Predicated on the new signals that the US Federal Reserve will likely end its bond purchase market volatility has program by mid-2014, US Treasury yields rose markedly over the June quarter, with increased… spillovers to international financial markets. This was reinforced by the recent growing signs of a significant divergence in economic momentum between key high income economies, notably the US and Japan, gaining steam, and major developing economies, notably China, growing at a slower pace than expected. These factors triggered a sharp sell-off of emerging market assets and increased market volatility, including in Indonesia. Many emerging market currencies slid against the US Dollar, the value of emerging equities fell by 7.5 percent over the quarter (as measured by the MSCI EM local currency index), and the cost of government financing rose markedly, with emerging market US Dollar bond spreads, for example, up by 50 basis points (as measured by the JP Morgan EMBIG index). …and Indonesian asset Indonesian asset markets have corrected sharply in recent weeks, in line with other emerging prices have been markets. Foreign investors turned heavy net sellers of equities and government bonds in the impacted latter part of the quarter, with outflows totaling approximately USD 3.6 billon from the start of May until the end of June. These outflows contributed to the 4 percent fall in Indonesian equities from the start of May through the end of the second quarter and the significant rise in the government bond yield curve, with yields climbing by 150-220 basis points since early J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA vi Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly May. The Rupiah fell by 2 percent against the Dollar, despite significant intervention by BI, with currency reserves dropping by USD 2 billion in May to USD 105 billion. External demand is The World Bank continues to expect a steady, if gradual, increase in global economic growth projected to pick up in coming quarters. This reflects a projected slow acceleration in activity in high income only slowly in coming economies, where growth remains generally sluggish but is on a firming trend, helped by a quarters resilient US private sector recovery and prospects for stronger growth in Japan, while Euro Area economic conditions remain difficult. The growth trajectory of developing countries is also uneven, but is also expected to firm somewhat. Overall, Indonesia’s major trading partners are projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2013, similar to the rate in 2012, but 0.3 percentage points lower than the March 2013 IEQ projection, reflecting below-expectation first quarter growth outcomes, such as in China. Major trading partner growth is projected to pick up to 4.0 percent in 2014. The still modest global growth outlook, and the strengthening of the US Dollar during the recent period of market turbulence, have also kept downward pressure on commodity prices, with the prices of Indonesia’s most important commodity exports declining significantly over the quarter. A revised Budget has The revision of Indonesia’s Budget (APBN-P) for 2013 occurred against the backdrop of been approved and weaker financial market conditions and signs of disappointing growth momentum amongst subsidized fuel prices some other developing countries. The key features of the revised Budget approved by have been increased Parliament were a revision of projected spending on fuel subsidies (to IDR 200 trillion), predicated on a near-term increase in subsidized fuel prices, and a package of compensation measures designed to reduce the impact of higher fuel prices on the poor. The 2013 deficit has been revised upwards by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4 percent of GDP, due to lower projected nominal revenues, in line with weaker anticipated GDP growth, and higher total expenditure (including on fuel subsidies, despite the recent increase in subsidized prices). The rise in subsidized fuel prices was made effective on June 22 with the subsidized petrol price rising by 44 percent to IDR 6,500 per liter and the subsidized diesel price increasing by 22 percent to IDR 5,500 per liter. Though inherently The sizable increase in subsidized fuel prices is a major reform, and follows the missed uncertain, the fiscal opportunity to adjust prices in 2012. In the short-term it helps to cap the likely increase in savings due to the fuel the 2013 Budget deficit. Longer-term, the reform is part of a needed response to ongoing subsidy reform may be adjustments in Indonesia’s economy - increasing demand for imported energy due to strong substantial growth coupled with declining domestic oil production and, crucially, the imperative to redirect fiscal spending more efficiently and more equitably in support of Indonesia’s development agenda. The World Bank estimates that the direct fiscal savings from the increase in subsidized fuel prices will be IDR 42 trillion in 2013, rising to IDR 85 trillion in 2014, the first full year in which the higher prices will apply. While significant, the base case estimated savings are inherently uncertain. A rise in global energy prices or continued weakening of the Rupiah could increase the gap between subsidized prices and the market price, pushing subsidy spending higher, notwithstanding the recent price adjustment. Therefore, there continues to be a strong case for building on this reform by increasing the flexibility of subsidized prices and bringing them more into line with market prices. Higher temporary The macroeconomic impact of the fuel subsidy reform package is expected to be inflation is the main manageable and largely short-term in nature. The reform package is expected to have only a near-term small net negative impact on growth in the near-term, with the negative impact on macroeconomic purchasing power for the poor substantially offset by the compensation package. The higher impact fuel prices will initially have a large impact on inflation, raising annual average inflation in 2013 by around 1.8 percentage points to 7.2 percent, peaking at around 9 percent year-on- year (yoy) towards the end of the year. However, the adjustment is a one-off shift of the price level, which means the impact on inflation will be unwound by mid-2014, assuming that long-term inflationary expectations are not affected and monetary policy is responsive to any signs of second-round, persistent price pressures. The World Bank estimates that the increase in subsidized fuel prices will narrow the current account deficit by a modest 0.2 percentage points of GDP in 2013, relative to a no-reform scenario. Over the medium-term, J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA v ii Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly the impact on Indonesia’s external accounts is difficult to quantify but should be broadly positive, by encouraging the more efficient use of fuel imports and by bolstering investor confidence in Indonesia’s fiscal position and policies. The growth outlook Growth in Indonesia moderated in the first quarter of 2013 to a slightly weaker than has weakened, expected 6.0 percent yoy. The economic outlook has also weakened, with commodity prices prompting a downward declining further and indications that investment growth is slowing more than initially revision of the World anticipated. Negative consumer confidence effects from the anticipation of the fuel subsidy Bank’s projection for reform, consequent temporary inflation, and the recent correction in asset markets, have 2013 GDP growth, to added to the headwinds to domestic demand. The drag on growth from net exports is 5.9 percent expected to diminish through the remainder of 2013, though the recovery in exports is expected to be more subdued and import growth is expected to be weaker, reflecting the weaker outlook for investment. Overall, the World Bank has lowered its GDP growth projection for 2013 to 5.9 percent, from the 6.2 percent projected in the March 2013 IEQ. Table 1: Under the baseline scenario, Indonesia’s growth is projected at 5.9 percent in 2013 2011 2012 2013 2014 Gross domestic product* (Annual percent change) 6.5 6.2 5.9 6.2 Consumer price index* (Annual percent change) 5.4 4.3 7.2 6.7 Current account deficit (Percent of GDP) 0.2 -2.8 -2.7 -2.1 Budget balance** (Percent of GDP) -1.1 -1.8 -2.4 -1.4 Major trading partner growth (Annual percent change) 3.6 3.4 3.4 4.0 Note: *Annual average. **Government figures for Budget deficit: 2012 is unaudited outturn, 2013 is revised Budget and 2014 is from the 2013 Draft Budget Financial Note Source: Ministry of Finance; BPS; World Bank staff calculations Indonesia’s growth While the World Bank’s base case is for a moderate slowdown in Indonesia’s growth in 2013, outlook faces risks… picking up again in 2014, the risk of a more pronounced growth slow-down is high. This risk could be catalyzed by a more marked weakening in domestic demand, for example, due to stronger-than-anticipated impacts from temporarily higher inflation due to higher fuel prices, or a steeper or more prolonged reduction in investment spending growth, as the recent financial market volatility hits confidence and increases financing costs. A further weakening in commodity prices also poses a significant risk, given the importance of commodity-related activity for foreign currency earnings, corporate profits and investment activity. The recent uncertainty over the trajectory of China’s economy therefore also has a significant bearing on the outlook. …highlighting the Recent events and the base case outlook for the coming quarters suggest that Indonesia’s need for policy settings likely need to adjust to somewhat less buoyant economic conditions, and macroeconomic policy potentially to more difficult external financing conditions. Bank Indonesia’s decision to raise settings to remain the overnight deposit facility and policy rates in early June, and the increase in subsidized fuel responsive to changing prices, are examples of policy adjustments to changing conditions, which can help safeguard conditions… macro stability, in support of future growth. Allowing the Rupiah exchange rate to adjust further gradually, should this be warranted by developments in Indonesia’s external position, may also be desirable. Maintaining a flexible, yet predictable and well-communicated, approach to macroeconomic policy-making, as well as continued progress in the implementation of policies and improvement of the regulatory environment, will be key as Indonesia continues to navigate a period of significant domestic and international economic challenges. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA v ii i Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and the importance The increase in social spending under the revised Budget, in part to help shield poor of redirecting spending households from the impact of higher fuel prices, is significant, and the design of the social towards the most compensation package demonstrates the important steps being taken towards developing a vulnerable, with the more comprehensive, integrated and well-targeted social support system. The approved fuel subsidy reform package of compensation measures totals IDR 29 trillion, or about three-quarters of the compensation package estimated total fuel subsidy savings in 2013. The compensation package comprises two main contributing to this components. First, a Special Compensation Program, which includes an unconditional cash transfer (Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat, BLSM) for 15.5 million of Indonesia’s poorest households for a period of four months, the provision of additional rice to beneficiaries of the Rice for the Poor (Raskin) program, and additional spending on infrastructure programs. Second, under the Social Protection Acceleration and Expansion Program, spending on financial assistance programs for poor students and on the conditional cash transfer program (Program Keluarga Harapan, PKH), is being expanded. The evidence, based on Indonesia’s past experience with unconditional cash transfers, suggests that these measures can generally be expected to provide adequate, timely and effective assistance for protecting the poor and vulnerable households that are least able to cope with the effect of higher fuel prices, subject to minimizing implementation difficulties by focusing on monitoring and feedback systems and making continued improvements in targeting. Over the longer-term, Social protection in Indonesia is also poised to be strengthened further when the new the implementation of national social security system (Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional, SJSN) starts being implemented Indonesia’s new in 2014. The SJSN aims to provide all Indonesians with the same health coverage, pension national social security (defined benefit), old-age savings (defined contribution), death benefits and work accident system could bring big compensation. If well implemented, the SJSN programs can help to reduce vulnerability, improvements but will protect against economic shocks, facilitate job mobility, reduce elderly poverty, help reduce be challenging… inequality, and mobilize scarce savings. However, the success of the new system will ultimately depend on how well it is designed, implemented and managed. The Government’s efforts to implement a well-designed, fiscally sustainable, robust and comprehensive national social protection system will prove challenging and will require a series of major actions from the Government and relevant administrative bodies to succeed. …and will take place The health coverage programs of the SJSN will be rolled out as Indonesia faces health and against the backdrop of nutrition problems of increasing complexity, driven by the processes of rapid development a changing social and urbanization. With a third of children under five stunted, not only is the capacity of the environment, including nation’s future workforce compromised, but their propensity for becoming overweight and as the health needs of suffering from cardiovascular diseases in later life is also greatly increased. Factors Indonesia’s population encouraging weight-gain, particularly for the growing share of Indonesians with urban evolve over future lifestyles, are exacerbating the situation, such that overnutrition problems are already decades affecting the majority of adults. Unless action is taken now, not only to tackle maternal and child undernutrition, but also to tackle the overnutrition problems in older children and adults, the prevalence of Non-Communicable Diseases might increase dramatically, with negative consequences for economic development and social welfare. Continuing to improve To enhance service delivery and increase the Government’s capacity to successfully the efficiency of the implement ambitious new programs such as the SJSN, further improvements in the civil service will be vital performance of Indonesia’s civil service bureaucracy will be required. Evidence suggests that to meet Indonesia’s the existing process of bureaucracy reform has already had a positive impact on human ambitious development resources dynamics in participating institutions, including recruitment and promotion goals processes, and on staff productivity. Much more remains to be done, however, to sustain productivity gains while ensuring a sustainable public sector wage bill, and modernizing control systems and organizational design. Right-sizing of the government bureaucracy is a politically sensitive issue but one that has been prioritized by the Government. A number of legal, regulatory and capacity constraints to right-sizing remain to be overcome, but these can be feasibly addressed, and doing so will be an important step forward in the creation of a more efficient and effective civil service. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA ix Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly A. Economic and fiscal update 1. Emerging market assets fell sharply in recent months Emerging market International financial market developments in the second quarter have provided a stark assets fell sharply, reminder of the continued vulnerability of emerging markets, including Indonesia, to rapid adjusting to new changes in global financial conditions. The prospect of the unwinding of quantitative easing information on in the US, and reassessment of the relative economic growth trajectories of major high quantitative easing and income and developing economies, triggered a major sell-off in emerging market assets. US the global economic Treasury yields began to rise sharply at the start of May, with the 10-year benchmark outlook… increasing by 80 basis points to 2.5 percent at the end of June. From the beginning of May through the end of June, the value of emerging market equities fell by 7 percent (as measured by the local currency MSCI EM index, Figure 1), and domestic bond yields and US Dollar bond spreads rose by 120 and 70 basis points, respectively (as measured by benchmark JP Morgan indices). Emerging market and commodity currencies like the Brazilian real, South African rand and Australian Dollar fell on the order of 10 percent. …and Indonesia has Indonesian asset markets have also corrected sharply in recent weeks, in tandem with other also been significantly emerging markets. From the start of May through the end of the second quarter, Indonesian impacted equities fell 4 percent, and foreigners were heavy net sellers of over IDR 18 trillion (USD 1.8 billon) in stocks, effectively erasing the substantial inflows seen previously in 2013 (Figure 4). The Government bond yield curve has risen and flattened significantly, with yields climbing by 150-220 basis points since early May. Foreign holdings of Indonesian bonds have also declined sharply, dropping by IDR 14 trillion (USD 1.4 billion) since April (Figure 4). The outflows from the Indonesian equity and bond markets in recent weeks do not appear disproportionate to those seen across other major emerging markets, many of which have also seen heavy outflows. Equity price performance has been comparable but domestic bonds have underperformed relative to many of Indonesia’s peers, with expectations since February of higher inflation due to higher subsidized fuel prices and a wider 2013 Budget deficit contributing to the upward pressure on yields. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 1 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly …as markets adjust to The possible reduction of the US Federal Reserve’s bond purchasing program later this year global policy changes reflects expectations that the US economy will continue to improve, following growth in Q1 and diverging of 1.8 percent annualized, up from 0.4 percent in Q4 2012, and most economic data in economic momentum recent months surprising positively. In contrast, the recent performance of developing economies has been patchy. GDP growth in Brazil was just 2.2 percent in Q1 at an annualized pace and Indian real GDP was 4.7 percent higher than its year-ago level, close to the slowest pace of expansion since 2009. China’s GDP in Q1 was higher by 7.7 percent yoy (yoy) – strong growth, but below consensus expectations. The most recent available economic data point to a continued significant divergence in economic momentum between key high income economies (notably the US, Japan, and Germany) and major developing economies (notably China) (Figure 2). Figure 1: Emerging markets had a poor Q2, with EM Figure 2: …coinciding with significant divergence in equities further underperforming US stocks… economic momentum across major economies (US and EM benchmark equity indices, Jan 4 2010 = 100) (GDP growth, seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, percent) 150 10 Developing High income Global 140 S&P 500 8 130 MSCI-EM (local 6 currency) 120 4 110 2 100 90 0 MSCI-EM (US Dollar) 80 -2 Jan-10 Mar-11 May-12 Jul-13 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Note: Data to 28 June 2013 Source: World Bank Source: CEIC; MSCI; World Bank staff calculations Figure 3: Indonesian equities and domestic government Figure 4: …amidst heavy net offshore selling of bonds and bonds have also weakened sharply since May… equities (index; yield, percent) (cumulative net offshore purchases, IDR trillion) Index Percent 90 5,500 7.0 Bonds 80 6.5 70 5,000 JCI equity (LHS) 60 6.0 50 4,500 5.5 40 30 5.0 20 4,000 Equities 10 5-year domestic 4.5 gov. bond yield (RHS) 0 3,500 4.0 -10 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Note: Data to 28 June 2013 Note: Bond flow data to 25 June, equities to 28 June 2013 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 2 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly The prices of The recent uneven performance Table 2: Commodity prices remain under pressure Indonesia’s key of the global economy, still (US Dollar commodity prices, percentage change; export share, percent) commodity exports modest global growth outlook, Change to end-June 2013 from: Export remain under pressure and correction in EM asset share* prices, along with a stronger US Jan05 Jun11 Dec12 May13 Dollar, have kept downward Coal 53.1 -32.4 -12.6 -7.1 13.8 pressure on commodity prices. Natural -39.7 -17.6 12.3 -8.5 10.2 The export-weighted basket of gas Indonesia’s major commodity Palm oil 84.9 -34.4 -4.2 -12.5 9.3 products was broadly flat on the Crude 129.6 -10.7 -7.3 -1.3 6.5 year through the end of May, oil and 21 percent lower than its Rubber 137.2 -43.1 -9.7 -7.6 4.2 post global-financial peak in Copper 111.5 -26.0 -15.8 -7.5 2.4 January 2011, with further Note: Australian coal, World Bank global natural gas index, significant falls in June for most Malaysia palm oil, Brent crude, Singapore-traded rubber, key commodities (Table 2). London-traded copper; *Export share is for 2012 Continued weakness in Source: BPS; World Bank and staff calculations commodity prices is weighing on investment and on exports, and consequently on growth. External demand is not The World Bank continues to expect a steady, if gradual, increase in global economic growth expected to pick up in coming quarters. This reflects a projected slow acceleration in economic activity in high strongly in coming income economies, where growth remains generally sluggish but is on a firming trend, quarters helped by a resilient US private sector recovery and prospects for stronger growth in Japan, while Euro Area economic conditions remain difficult. The growth trajectory of developing countries is also uneven, but developing country growth overall is also expected to firm somewhat. On an annual basis, the economies of Idonesia’s major trading partners are projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2013, similar to the rate in 2012, and 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous projection in the March 2013 IEQ, reflecting below- expectation growth outcomes amongst major trading partners such as China in Q1. Major trading partner growth is projected to pick up to 4.0 percent in 2014. The recent sell-off across emerging market assets, and its potential impact on financing costs and availability, and investor confidence, keeps the risks to these projections skewed to the downside. 2. The revised Budget: subsidized fuel prices raised and a larger deficit projected A revised Budget has Against the backdrop of the weakening in international and domestic financial markets, a been approved and revised Budget (APBN-P) for 2013 was approved by Parliament on June 17. Its key features subsidized fuel prices were a revision of projected spending on fuel subsidies, predicated on a near-term increase have been increased in subsidized fuel prices, a package of compensation measures designed to reduce the impact of higher fuel prices on the poor, and a higher projected Budget deficit for the year, stemming from lower projected nominal revenues, higher total expenditure, and weaker anticipated GDP growth. Accordingly, an increase in fuel prices was announced by the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources on June 21 (Regulation Permen ESDM No. 18/2013); effective June 22, the price of subsidized petrol was increased by 44 percent to IDR 6,500 per liter and the price of subsidized diesel was increased by 22 percent to IDR 5,500 per liter. The target budget The revised Budget deficit target for 2013 is 2.4 percent of GDP, up from 1.7 percent deficit for 2013 is now previously (Table 4). The larger anticipated deficit results from a 2 percent downward 2.4 percent of GDP, up revision of projected revenues, to IDR 1,502 trillion, and a 3 percent upward revision of from 1.7 percent expenditures to IDR 1,726 trillion. The primary deficit is projected to reach IDR 112 trillion previously (1.2 percent of GDP), which is IDR 72 trillion more than in the original Budget for 2013. The lower revenue projection mostly results from lower expected tax revenues in 2013, which are lowered by 4 percent from the original Budget to IDR 1,148 trillion, with the biggest adjustments applying to projected income taxes and taxes on international trade, reduced by 7.9 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively. Behind these downward revisions to J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 3 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly revenue projections lies a reduction in projected GDP growth from 6.8 to 6.3 percent. Oil lifting for the year is also revised lower, to 840 thousand barrels per day (bpd) from 900 thousand bpd previously, but a USD 8 per barrel increase in the average crude oil price for the year, to USD 108 per barrel, increases targeted oil-related revenues by almost 7 percent compared to the original Budget for 2013. Targeted expenditures On the expenditure side, fuel subsidy spending is projected to increase by IDR 6.1 trillion increase relative to the versus the original Budget of IDR 193.8 trillion, despite the sizable increase in subsidized original Budget on the fuel prices. This reflects the fact that, in the absence of reform, energy subsidy spending back of higher social would have significantly outstripped the originally budgeted amount, reflecting fuel spending and energy consumption and price pressures. Electricity subsidies are targeted to reach IDR 100 trillion subsidies (IDR 19.1 trillion more than in the original Budget), so that total energy subsidy spending is projected to be 9.1 percent higher than in the original Budget, at IDR 300 trillion. The other key feature on the expenditure side is an increase in social spending of IDR 7 trillion to IDR 81 trillion, due in part to the compensation package designed to reduce the impact of higher subsidized retail fuel prices. Section B.1 discusses these new social assistance measures in more detail. The fiscal impact of The World Bank estimates that in the absence of reform, the actual spending on fuel the fuel subsidy reform subsidies in 2013 would have overshot the original 2013 Budget target by approximately is positive but will have IDR 25 trillion. With reform, fuel subsidy spending is projected by the World Bank to be only a modest net fiscal IDR 177 trillion – somewhat below the level in the revised Budget of IDR 200 trillion, due impact in 2013… to different macroeconomic assumptions for oil prices, GDP growth and the exchange rate (Table 4). The direct fiscal savings for 2013 of having increased the subsidized fuel price at the mid-point of the year are therefore estimated by the World Bank to be IDR 42.1 trillion (or 0.5 percent of projected GDP), and IDR 13 trillion net of the IDR 29 trillion compensation package (or 0.14 percent of GDP). The main fiscal benefit conferred by the subsidy reform in 2013, therefore, is that the Government will avoid significantly overshooting targeted spending on fuel subsidies, which would have placed additional pressure on a fiscal deficit which was already being widened by weaker than expected revenue growth. …while future fiscal Relative to a no-reform, “business as usual” scenario, the fiscal savings over the next few savings, while years from the increase in subsidized fuel prices are significant (Figure 5). Using baseline inherently uncertain, macroeconomic projections and assuming a stable exchange rate and oil prices, fuel subsidy are significant relative spending is projected by the World Bank to drop to IDR 148 trillion in 2014 from IDR 177 to a no-change trillion in 2013 and IDR 212 trillion in 2012. This implies a full year fiscal saving of IDR scenario 85.2 trillion in 2014 (0.8 of GDP), relative to having not increased fuel prices. Savings relative to the no-reform scenario are projected to increase in the subsequent two years (IDR 97.7 trillion in 2015, and IDR 112.4 trillion in 2016). However, these multi-year savings estimates are inherently uncertain, as they depend crucially on the future path of unsubsidized fuel prices, which in turn depend on international energy prices and the Rupiah exchange rate. A rise in global energy prices or continued weakening of the Rupiah could increase the gap between subsidized prices and the market price, pushing subsidy spending higher. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 4 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Table 3: In 2013, fiscal savings from the fuel subsidy reform Figure 5: In coming years, fiscal savings are substantial, are modest, net of the sizable compensation package relative to “business as usual” spending on fuel subsidies (IDR trillion) (IDR trillion) 2013 2013 Direct savings without with Actual spending reform reform 300 Revised Budget Targeted fiscal outlay on fuel Spending, without reform 193.8* 199.9** subsidies 250 Spending, with reform World Bank projected outlay 218.7 176.6 200 on fuel subsidies World Bank projected direct 42.1 150 savings from reform Compensation package: 29.1 100 BLSM (IDR 150,000 for 4 9.3 50 months for 15.5m households) Fiscal outlay on other 0 19.8 compensatory measures World Bank projected net 13.1 savings from reform Note: *original Budget (APBN) **revised Budget (APBN-P) Source: World Bank staff calculations Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations Table 4: The World Bank projects a fiscal deficit of 2.1 percent, slightly lower than in the proposed revised Budget (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 2013 Actual Actual Actual Budget Revised WB July (unaudited) Budget IEQ A. Revenues 995 1,211 1,336 1,530 1,502 1,448 1. Tax Revenues 723 874 980 1,193 1,148 1,131 2. Non Tax Revenues 269 331 352 332 349 313 B. Expenditures 1,042 1,295 1,482 1,683 1,726 1,637 1. Central Government, o/w 697 884 1,001 1,154 1,197 1,108 Personnel 148 176 198 242 233 228 Material 98 125 137 201 203 179 Capital 80 118 140 184 188 166 Subsidies, o/w 193 295 346 317 348 318 Fuel subsidy 82 165 212 194 200 177 Social 69 71 75 74 81 74 2. Transfers to the Regions 345 411 480 529 529 529 C. Primary Balance 42 9.0 -46 -40 -112 -87 D. SURPLUS / DEFICIT -47 -84 -146 -153 -224 -189 Deficit (percent of GDP) -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 -1.7 -2.4 -2.1 E. Net Financing 92 131 180 153 224 n.a 1. Domestic Financing 96 149 199 173 241 n.a 2. Foreign Financing -4.6 -17.8 -19.2 -19.5 -16.9 n.a Key economic assumptions Economic growth (percent) 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.8 6.3 5.9 CPI (percent) 7.0 3.8 4.3 4.9 7.2 7.2 Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 9,078 8,779 9,384 9,300 9,600 9,750 Crude oil price (USD/barrel) 79 112 113 100 108 106 Oil production ('000 barrels/day) 954 899 861 900 840.0 840.0 Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 5 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly A cumulative budget The first five months of 2013 saw a cumulative budget deficit of almost IDR 26 trillion. This deficit of IDR 26 is an unusual result for the early part of the year; with the exception of 2012, when a budget trillion was recorded deficit of IDR 4 trillion was recorded, the budget balance is normally positive over this for Jan–May 2013 period. The unusual part-year deficit is a result of relatively weak revenue growth and higher spending, adding to the imperative to reduce fuel subsidy spending. Revenue collection Total revenues in January-May 2013 grew by 10.1 percent (yoy), which is slightly higher than moderated in the first in the comparable period in 2012 (8.3 percent), but considerably below that in 2011. Relative five months of 2013 to the annual projection, revenue collection in the first five months of 2013 has been the lowest in recent years (at 33.4 percent of targeted whole-year revenue), despite significantly improved collection of non-tax revenues (which, however, represent only about 23 percent of total revenues). Moderation in collections growth was recorded for all taxes, in line with weaker nominal GDP growth, and moderation in consumption growth in particular, as discussed in Section 4, as well as lackluster exports and commodity prices. The weakness in income tax revenue growth is largely driven by weaker corporate income tax collection due to slower nominal GDP growth and lower commodity prices, but was also affected by a substantial increase in the taxable income threshold (Penghasilan Tidak Kena Pajak, or PTKP).1 Table 5: Budget execution for Jan – May has improved compared to previous years but remains challenging (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) Share (Jan – May) of annual Nominal growth yoy (Jan - Nominal value (Jan – May) Budget May) (IDR trillion) (percent) (percent) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 State revenue and 356 421 456 502 35.9 36.0 33.6 33.4 20.4 18.3 8.3 10.1 grants Tax Revenues, o/w 275 327 373 397 37.1 37.2 36.8 34.5 14.9 18.6 14.4 6.2 Non-oil & gas income 128 150 168 170 41.7 40.9 37.7 36.5 7.9 17.0 12.0 1.0 tax Value added tax 82 92 121 138 31.3 30.9 36.0 32.5 24.1 12.0 31.1 14.1 Export tax 1 14 9 6 25.2 53.7 39.6 33.9 251.1 893.3 -32.6 -35.2 Non Tax Receipts 80 94 82 105 32.5 33.0 24.0 30.0 44.1 17.5 -13.4 28.2 Expenditure 295 364 460 528 26.2 27.6 29.7 30.6 2.7 23.5 26.3 14.8 C. Government, o/w 175 213 273 317 22.4 23.4 25.5 26.5 1.1 21.3 28.2 16.3 Personnel 56 68 79 89 34.5 37.0 37.0 38.1 8.7 20.5 16.0 13.1 Material 21 24 31 33 18.4 17.0 18.8 16.1 21.4 16.9 26.0 6.9 Capital 12 14 23 25 13.0 9.7 13.0 13.5 -15.6 10.5 67.6 11.1 Energy subsidy 37 54 70 95 25.6 27.8 34.7 31.6 90.8 47.1 29.4 35.2 Social assistance 15 7 22 16 20.6 8.9 25.9 20.3 -10.9 -50.5 207.6 -26.6 Transfers to regions 119 151 187 211 34.7 36.7 39.1 39.8 5.2 26.8 23.5 12.6 Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations 1 On October 22 2012 the Government increased the non-taxable annual income threshold of individual taxpayers from IDR 15.8 million to IDR 24.3 million per year, effective January 1 2013. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 6 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Budget execution in On the expenditure side, Budget execution displayed its typical seasonal pattern of moderate the first five months disbursements for the beginning of the year, but has slightly improved compared to previous has slightly improved years. By end of May, 30.6 percent of projected annual expenditures in the revised Budget compared to previous were disbursed, which is the highest in recent years, and even after excluding subsidy years but remains spending budget execution was moderately high compared with previous years, at 30.4 challenging percent. Overall, however, budget execution remains a challenge, particularly in light of spending allocation changes as a result of the revised Budget which may complicate budget execution over the remainder of 2013. In addition, ongoing challenges with respect to conditional budget approvals (Bintangs) in the first quarter continue to cause delays in the spending of some line Ministries. Gross financing needs Funding conditions, both domestically, and externally in the wake of the rise in global rates have risen considerably since May, have tightened since the previous edition of the IEQ. Following the revised Budget and IDR 70.9 trillion increase in the projected deficit, gross debt financing for 2013 is expected to increase by IDR 52.6 trillion relative to the original 2013 target, to IDR 380.6 trillion, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). The prospect of this additional supply of debt has been one factor driving the significant correction in the domestic bond market since February, along with anticipation of the inflationary effects of fuel subsidy reform and international market conditions; bond yields have risen on the order of 150-200 basis points across the yield curve to levels last seen in mid-2011 (see Section 3 for more discussion of financial market developments). This presents a somewhat more challenging picture for issuance, with primary market demand weakening during the latter part of Q2 and 56 percent of the revised, higher gross issuance need for 2013 remaining to be met as of June 25.2 Risks to the government finances from higher yields are mitigated by the relatively low proportion of variable rate debt in the total debt stock (approximately 16 percent in 2012, according to DMO figures), and the Government has significant contingent financing and cash reserves in place to draw on in the event of a more severe dislocation in the bond market. The World Bank The World Bank projects that overall revenue collection in 2013 will be slightly lower than projects that the 2013 projected in the revised Budget (Table 4), reflecting moderation in projected nominal GDP fiscal deficit will be 2.1 and commodity prices (as discussed in Section 4), still challenging resources sector percent of GDP, conditions, and a small net negative effect on VAT collections from the fuel subsidy slightly lower than in increase. The World Bank also projects that overall expenditure will be slightly below the the revised Budget revised Budget, reflecting continuing challenges in budget execution (particularly for capital and material spending), as well as slightly lower energy subsidy spending due to a lower oil price assumption (USD 106 per barrel against the Budget assumption of USD 108 per barrel). On balance, the World Bank projects a slightly narrower Budget deficit in 2013, of 2.1 percent of GDP, against the revised Budget target of 2.4 percent. 2 See Directorate General of Debt Management, June 2013 Investor Meeting Presentation, available online. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 7 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly 3. Indonesia’s financial, currency and credit markets: a turbulent quarter The recent down-turn While the adjustment in Indonesian financial markets since May has been severe (Figure 3), in markets follows a this should be placed in the context of a generally robust performance in the first five strong start to Q2 months of 2013. Indonesian equities performed particularly strongly in the first half of the quarter, building on price gains in the first quarter amidst continued robust corporate profit growth across most sectors and strong net foreign purchases of Indonesian equities, totaling IDR 26 trillion (USD 2.7 billion) in the year to mid-May. Indonesian equities rose 20 percent from the start of 2013 until 21 May, led by property (up 57 percent) and the consumer goods sector (up 38 percent). Bond market performance was more mixed, with higher inflation pushing yields somewhat higher, but foreign investors were still net buyers of IDN 33 trillion worth of domestic bonds over the same period. The bilateral US After easing through March and April, aided by robust net foreign purchases of domestic Dollar-Rupiah equities and bonds, and by sovereign and state-owned enterprise Dollar bond issuance, exchange rate has been onshore US Dollar liquidity conditions have subsequently tightened on the back of heavy under pressure, and portfolio outflows. Official reserves declined in May to USD 105.2 billion despite receiving a Bank Indonesia has boost from sizable external bond issuance. Currency depreciation pressure intensified in late raised interest rates… May, reflecting accelerating portfolio outflows, with the onshore Rupiah rate falling to as low as IDR 9,960 per USD in late June for the first time since September 2009, while offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) rates breached 10,000 in early June. Surprising markets, Bank Indonesia (BI) reacted on June 12 by raising its overnight bank deposit (FASBI) rate by 25 basis points, to 4.25 percent. This was followed by a rise in the reference policy rate of 25 basis points to 6 percent on 13 June – the first increase since 2011. …but the Rupiah has While the Rupiah has depreciated on a sustained basis against the US Dollar in nominal actually appreciated so terms since mid-2011, the currency has in fact appreciated on a trade-weighted basis and in far in 2013 on a trade- real terms since the start of 2013. This appreciation reflects recent currency depreciation weighted basis among major trading partners (especially Japan, with the Rupiah appreciating by 10 percent against the Yen so far in 2013), and Indonesia’s higher inflation rate also pressuring its real exchange rate higher. The Rupiah has now appreciated by 3 percent on a trade-weighted basis and by 4 percent on a real basis since the beginning of 2013. Consequently, since the start of 2013 there has been little real adjustment of the exchange rate to Indonesia’s weaker external position, suggesting that a combination of somewhat tighter monetary policy and a continued orderly depreciation of the Rupiah may be appropriate. Bank credit growth has Credit growth continued to ease in the second quarter, with nominal credit growth slowing eased recently, driven to 22 percent yoy in April, cutting real growth (ex post) to 15 percent yoy in April, its by weaker investment weakest pace since December 2010. Investment lending has led the moderation, easing to 24 lending percent yoy to April, down from a peak of 30 percent to July 2012, in line with the weakening in real investment activity (Figure 7). Growth in consumption lending slowed to 19 percent to March, while growth in working capital loans has also eased recently. Banking sector system-level prudential indicators remained stable into 2013, with non-performing loans remaining around 2 per cent, while profitability metrics for Indonesian banks remain strong, including relative to regional peers. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 8 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 6: The Rupiah has appreciated on a nominal and real Figure 7: Investment lending has eased in line with the trade-weighted basis so far in 2013 slowing pace of real investment growth (cumulative change since 1 July 2011, percent) (yoy change, percent) 18 50 IDR depreciation 16.0 15 40 Investment lending IDR-USD spot 12 exchange rate 9 30 NEER 6 6.0 20 3 REER 2.4 10 0 Investment growth -3 0 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Note: NEER is 1-month moving average of a daily NEER index Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations calculated using 2012 total trade weights Source: BIS (REER); BPS; World Bank staff calculations Residential property Despite a slowing pace of bank lending for construction and residential mortgages in recent prices have accelerated months (Figure 8), property price growth has accelerated. Nationwide property price growth at the fastest pace in was 11.2 percent in the year to March, the fastest pace for a decade. Higher prices were led over a decade, while by strong price growth among smaller homes (with floor space of less than 36 square commercial property meters), which are exempt from the stronger loan-to-value requirements introduced for shows even stronger residential mortgages in mid-2012. A new BI survey of the Jakarta secondary market for growth residential property (excluding apartments) also points to strong price growth, with prices up 3.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q1 for medium-sized homes and 3.5 percent for large homes, reflecting strong growth in Jakarta land values.3 Meanwhile commercial property also showed continued robust price growth, with industrial land prices across the Jabodetabek region up 65 percent over the year to the end of the first quarter, while office rental rates are up 15 percent over the same period (Figure 9). Such rapid price growth in pockets of the property sector bears careful monitoring but as noted in the March 2013 IEQ, overall property-related exposures in the financial system remain relatively small with property- related lending accounting for around 14 percent of total bank credit, and 12 percent of corporate bond issuance in the year to March 2013. 3 Bank’s Indonesia’s Residential Property Survey for Secondary Homes was first published on 24 April 2013 with data available to Q2 2012. Medium-sized homes are defined as those between 80sqm and 150sqm, while large homes are defined as those greater than 150sqm. The survey excludes residential apartments. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 9 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 8: Residential house prices continue to accelerate Figure 9: …with commercial property in Jabodetabek despite slowing property lending growth… recording rapid price growth amid strong demand (yoy change, percent) (year-to-date change, percent) 20 40 100 Residential property prices: Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 small (LHS) 80 Residential property 15 prices:: total (LHS) 30 Residential property 60 prices: medium (LHS) 10 20 40 Credit growth: property (RHS) 20 5 10 0 Residential property Residential Office Residential Retail Industrial prices: large (LHS) homes (14 space (Jbk) apartments space land (Jbk) 0 0 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 city) (Jbk) (rental) (Jbk) Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations 4. The outlook for the Indonesian economy has weakened The outlook for growth The rate of growth of the Indonesian economy moderated in the first quarter of 2013 to 6.0 has deteriorated.. percent yoy, slightly weaker than expected. The outlook for the economy has weakened, with the lagged impact of lower commodity prices bearing down on investment and the economy facing headwinds from the effects of renewed financial market turbulence and higher subsidized fuel prices. …prompting a The World Bank has lowered its projection for GDP growth in 2013 to 5.9 percent, down downward revision of from the 6.2 projection in the March 2013 IEQ, largely as a result of a more subdued the World Bank’s outlook for domestic demand. Investment growth has slowed more than initially expected, projection for 2013 while confidence effects from the anticipation of the fuel subsidy reform and correction in GDP growth, to 5.9 asset markets have likely weighed on domestic demand. The drag on growth from net percent exports is expected to diminish through the remainder of 2013, though relative to previous projections the recovery in exports is expected to be more subdued and import growth is expected to be weaker, reflecting the weaker outlook for investment. The net real sector impact of the proposed fuel subsidy reform is expected to be small, with the negative impact on consumption and investment from a higher fuel price likely to be largely offset by the positive impact on growth of the compensation package. However, with the higher outlook for inflation, further monetary tightening may be necessary, which could further slow the pace of growth. Real GDP growth in Indonesia’s economic activity moderated in the first quarter of 2013, as growth in domestic the first quarter of 2013 demand, particularly investment, eased (Figure 10). Real GDP rose by 6.0 percent yoy in Q1, continued to marking the tenth consecutive quarter of 6 percent or higher growth. The Q1 result was moderate… lower than the 6.1 percent yoy growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2012, while on a seasonally-adjusted (sa) quarter-on-quarter (qoq) basis the economy grew by 1.3 percent, down from 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Nominal GDP growth also continued to ease, to 8.7 percent yoy, the slowest rate in 9 years (Figure 11). The weakness in nominal growth is due mainly to a sharp reduction in GDP deflator growth, with a significant fall in export prices on the back of lower global commodity prices a key contributor. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 10 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 10: Real GDP growth continued to ease, with the Figure 11: Nominal GDP remains weak, in line with weak contribution from investment narrowing further growth in the GDP deflator (yoy real GDP growth, percent) (yoy growth, percent) 14 Private cons. Gov cons. 30 Nominal GDP 12 Investment Net Exports Discrepancy GDP GDP deflator 10 20 8 6 10 4 2 0 0 Exports deflator -2 -10 -4 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Note: The discrepancy includes the statistical discrepancy and Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations inventories Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Investment growth Growth in real investment Figure 12: The moderation in investment has largely been continues to moderate, continued to fall in the first driven by a sharp drop off in foreign machinery and largely driven by quarter of 2013, increasing by equipment, and transportation weakening investment 5.9 percent yoy, well down (contributions to real investment growth, percent, yoy) in foreign from 7.3 percent in the 16 Other transportation, and fourth quarter and its recent Foreign transportation Foreign machinery and equipment machinery and peak of 12.5 percent in the Building equipment June quarter of 2012. In Total 12 seasonally adjusted sequential terms, investment was flat in the quarter, following growth of 1.9 percent quarter-on- 8 quarter seasonally adjusted in the fourth quarter of last year. Driving this significant 4 moderation in growth has been foreign transportation, and machinery and equipment, whose combined 0 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 contribution to aggregate Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations investment growth has fallen from over 6.0 percentage points in the June quarter of 2012, to a zero contribution to overall investment growth in the March quarter of 2013 (Figure 12). This weakness is consistent with the ongoing weakness in commodity-related activity, which draws heavily on foreign capital investment. There was also some moderation in building investment in the quarter (85 percent of total investment), which grew by 7.2 percent yoy, down from 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. Private consumption Growth in private consumption also moderated in Q1, increasing by 5.2 percent yoy, slightly saw some moderation, down from 5.4 percent yoy in Q4 2012. This reflected a moderation in non-food as higher food prices consumption, with the significant increase in food prices in the quarter likely having an reduced consumers’ adverse impact. On the other hand, government consumption growth strengthened in purchasing power sequential terms, increasing by 4.6 percent qoq-sa, to be 0.4 percent higher than a year ago, following weak outcomes in late 2012. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 11 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Net exports made a Net exports contributed significantly to growth in Q1, contributing around 3.5 percentage positive contribution to points to qoq-sa growth and 1.8 percent to yoy growth. Exports in volume terms (though growth, with a mild not in value terms) continued to stage a recovery in the quarter, up 3.0 percent qoq-sa and pick up in exports and 3.4 percent yoy. More striking was the large fall in imports of 5.4 percent qoq-sa, down 0.4 a large fall in imports percent yoy, which is consistent with weaker growth in domestic demand. The statistical After adding significantly to growth over much of 2012, the statistical discrepancy and discrepancy and inventories subtracted 0.1 percentage points from yoy growth in the March quarter of 2013. inventories no longer As a result, the sizeable gap between GDP and measured real final sales growth (i.e. the sum account for a large of measured private consumption, government consumption, fixed investment and net proportion of growth exports), highlighted in recent editions of the IEQ as being indicative of demand-side risks to output growth, has narrowed in line with the moderation in the latter. On the production On the production side, the Q1 moderation was largely driven by the industrial sectors, side, much of the while agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries production rebounded and the moderation in growth performance of the services sectors was mixed. In aggregate, industrial sectors’ output was driven by the increased by 4.9 percent yoy, down from 5.4 percent yoy in Q4 2012, with mining and industrial sectors, quarrying continuing to perform poorly, down 0.4 percent when compared to a year ago. particularly mining and The other industrial sectors continued to perform solidly, though there was some quarrying moderation in activity in manufacturing, where output growth eased slightly to 5.8 percent yoy, and in the construction sector, where output growth eased to 7.2 percent yoy. Services sectors’ aggregate output increased by 7.6 percent yoy, unchanged from Q4 2012. There was some moderation in trade, hotels and restaurants, which increased by 6.5 percent yoy, well- down from 7.8 percent yoy in Q4. This sector, which is the largest services sector, accounts for close to 15 per cent of nominal GDP and has seen moderating activity growth since late 2011. However, this weakness was offset by strong results from other services sub-sectors such as transport and communication (up 10.0 percent yoy) and financial ownership and business services (up 8.4 percent yoy). Output in the The weakness in the mining Figure 13: Mining sector output continues to be weak petroleum and gas sub- and quarrying sector has (yoy change in real mining (ex petroleum and gas), crude petroleum and gas sector continues to fall, been largely driven by output, percent) 20 while growth in other mining, particularly oil and mining activities was gas. The oil and gas sector weak has been contracting for the 15 Mining (ex. petroleum past two years, with output and gas) falling by 5.7 percent yoy in 10 the March quarter of 2013, following a contraction of 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter 5 of 2012 (Figure 13). Growth in non-oil and gas mining 0 output has also weakened in recent quarters, to be 3.7 percent yoy in the March -5 Crude petroleum and gas quarter, down from 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter -10 of 2012. In nominal terms, Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 non-oil and gas mining Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations output contracted outright, by 4.2 percent yoy in the March quarter. In sequential terms, however, there are some signs of a bottoming-out in non-oil and gas mining output, albeit at levels well off the post global financial crisis highs; non-oil and gas mining output in Q1 increased by 3.3 percent quarter- on-quarter seasonally adjusted in real terms, and by 7.9 percent in nominal terms. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 12 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly A number of high High frequency indicators for April and May are suggestive of a continued moderation in frequency indicators growth. Continued falls in capital imports (Figure 14), along with the moderation in lending have eased recently… for investment discussed above, suggest that investment growth will stay weak in the very near-term. Imports of capital goods continued to fall for the fifth consecutive quarter in April, and were down 22.5 percent yoy. Growth in cement sales, a key indicator of building activity, moderated to 13.1 percent yoy in May, down from 16.8 percent in March and has weakened significantly in seasonally-adjusted sequential terms (Figure 15), indicative of a continuation in the moderation in building investment seen in the first quarter. However, continued robust demand in the residential property market, which has resulted in large increases in property prices as reported in Section 3, should lend some support to building investment going forward. While the HSBC PMI, at 51.6 in May, continues to suggest expansionary business conditions in the manufacturing sector, industrial production is showing signs of weaker momentum in seasonally adjusted sequential terms (Figure 15). Indicators of consumption point to some near-term weakness, with retail sales increasing by 9.7 percent yoy, well down from growth of close to 20 percent yoy in late 2012. Measures of consumer confidence continue to trend down, with the BI consumer confidence index lower in both April and May, likely adversely impacted by the anticipation of the announcement Government’s subsidy reform. However, election spending in the lead up to the 2014 presidential elections should provide a boost consumption growth in late 2013 and early 2014, consistent with past experience. Figure 14: Continued weakness in capital imports points to Figure 15: …while high frequency economic indicators are more weakness in fixed investment growth… suggestive of a continued moderation in growth (real fixed investment and 3-month moving average of capital goods imports in (3-month change versus previous 3 months, seasonally-adjusted annualized USD, percent yoy) rate, percent) 80 16 60 Capital goods imports (3mma) 50 Cement sales 40 40 12 30 20 0 8 10 0 -10 -40 Real fixed investment (RHS) 4 -20 Industrial production -30 -80 0 -40 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Note: Series have been adjusted for Ramadan period Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations The net growth impact The increase in subsidized fuel prices may be an additional headwind for investment in the of fuel subsidy reform short-term, since it will add directly to the cost of transportation, and indirectly to the cost is not expected to be of intermediate goods, thus increasing both operating and investment costs. On the other large hand, the reduction of wasteful spending on fuel subsidies should serve to boost investor confidence in Indonesia’s fiscal position and reform trajectory. The higher price of fuel is also expected to negatively impact private consumption through reduced purchasing power. However, the proposed compensation package (of around IDR 29 trillion), which includes a significant cash transfer to the poor, as discussed in Section B.1, will offset some of the negative impact on consumption. For non-poor households there may be a temporary reduction in consumption but this may be mitigated by a corresponding nominal wage increase as seen in 2008 when manufacturing employees’ nominal wage growth moved up in response to both the rise in fuel price and higher food price inflation. The Government’s compensation package also incorporates some spending on basic infrastructure (of IDR 7.25 trillion), which should have positive flow-on effects to other areas of the economy. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 13 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly GDP growth is forecast The World Bank’s projection for GDP growth in 2013 is 5.9 percent, lowered from 6.2 at 5.9 percent for 2013 percent in the December 2012 IEQ (Table 6). Private consumption is expected to be the and 6.2 percent for 2014 main driver of growth, supported by pre-election spending towards the end of this year, though there may be some weakness in the near-term. Investment growth is expected to cool further, as indicated by a continued moderation in credit for investment and the sustained slowdown in spending on imported capital goods. Solid growth in building investment, supported by robust growth in the residential construction sector, should provide some offset, given that construction accounts for around 85 percent of total nominal investment spending. Both import and export growth should remain under pressure over 2013, with somewhat weaker than previously-expected major trading partner growth leading to a downgrade in export growth, while growth in imports has also been downgraded, in line with the weaker investment outlook. For 2014, growth is expected to pick up to 6.2 percent, as the global recovery gains some traction, supporting exports and investment. Table 6: Under the baseline scenario GDP growth of 5.9 percent is projected for 2013, rising to 6.2 percent in 2014 (percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) Revision to Annual Year to December quarter Annual 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 1. Main economic indicators Total Consumption expenditure 4.8 4.9 5.6 3.9 5.7 5.0 -0.1 -0.2 Private consumption expenditure 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.0 -0.5 -0.2 Government consumption 1.2 4.5 4.8 -3.3 8.2 4.9 2.7 -0.8 Gross fixed capital formation 9.8 4.4 6.2 7.3 4.1 6.7 -3.6 -3.4 Exports of goods and services 2.0 5.8 6.1 0.5 6.6 6.8 -0.1 -5.2 Imports of goods and services 6.6 1.0 5.2 6.8 -1.0 5.8 -7.6 -4.2 Gross Domestic Product 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.5 -0.3 -0.2 Agriculture 4.0 4.1 3.1 2.0 5.8 3.2 1.3 -0.1 Industry 5.2 4.5 5.0 5.4 4.1 5.3 -0.6 -0.4 Services 7.7 7.5 8.0 7.6 7.4 8.1 -0.4 -0.1 2. External indicators Balance of payments (USD bn) 0.2 -4.8 5.2 n/a n/a n/a -6.8 0.9 Current account balance (USD bn) -24.1 -25.2 -22.2 n/a n/a n/a -1.5 0.2 Trade balance (USD bn) -2.2 -5.0 -0.6 n/a n/a n/a -5.3 -5.2 Financial account bal. (USD bn) 24.9 20.5 27.4 n/a n/a n/a -5.2 0.7 3. Other economic measures Consumer price index 4.3 7.2 6.7 4.4 9.0 5.3 1.8 1.5 Poverty basket Index 6.5 7.4 8.0 5.4 9.2 7.3 1.3 1.2 GDP Deflator 4.6 4.3 6.3 2.7 6.5 5.3 -0.6 0.4 Nominal GDP 11.0 10.5 12.9 9.0 12.5 12.2 -0.9 0.2 4. Economic assumptions Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 9419 9750 9700 9630 9770 9700 150.0 200.0 Indonesian crude price (USD/bl) 113 106 105 108 105 105 -4.0 0.0 Major trading partner growth 3.4 3.4 4.0 3.3 3.8 3.4 -0.3 0.0 Note: 2012 figures subject to revisions. Projected trade flows relate to the national accounts. Revisions are relative to projections in March 2013 IEQ. Source: MoF; BPS; BI; CEIC; World Bank projections J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 14 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly 5. Inflation will increase temporarily following the rise in subsidized fuel prices The outlook for The Government’s move to increase the diesel price by IDR 1,000 per liter and the gasoline inflation is dominated price by IDR 2,000 per liter on 22 June 2013 are expected to lead to a large spike in headline by the increase in inflation and poverty basket inflation, with a more muted increase expected in core inflation. subsidized fuel The spike in inflation is expected to be temporary and will be completely phased out over prices… time. Prudent management from BI should help ensure that there is not a persistent rise in inflation expectations and underlying inflation. Unlike past fuel prices increases, these increases have come at a time when inflation is well contained, with headline inflation moderating in line with lower food prices and core inflation relatively low and stable. Higher subsidized fuel It is projected that higher Figure 16: Projected headline inflation, with and without fuel prices should add subsidized fuel prices will subsidy reform approximately 1.8 increase inflation by around (percent, yoy) percentage points to 1.8 percentage points in 20 average annual 2013 and around 1.5 inflation… percentage points in 2014. 18 Forecast Consequently, inflation is 16 expected to reach 7.2 percent 14 in 2013 and 6.7 percent in 12 2014, peaking at around 9 With percent yoy at the end of 10 reform 2013 (Figure 16). This sizable 8 impact reflects a large direct 6 impact from the higher cost of gasoline, but also a large 4 Without indirect impact as gasoline is 2 reform an important input for many 0 consumption goods. While Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 the direct CPI weight of diesel for households is low, Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations the indirect impact is large as diesel is used by buses and trucks for public and commercial transport. The once-off nature of this reform means that the impact on annual inflation washes out by the September quarter of 2014, when headline inflation is expected to be 5.2 percent yoy (Figure 16). …as well as pushing The higher price of fuel is also expected to push poverty basket inflation significantly higher up poverty basket by around 1.2 percentage points in 2013 and 1.3 percentage points in 2014 to 7.4 percent inflation… and 8.0 percent, respectively. While, the average consumer will experience the price increase both at the fuel pump and a generalized increase in prices of other goods, a poor households’ consumer basket, which contains almost no direct consumption of fuel, will be affected largely through the impact of higher transportation costs on the price of food (which represents 60 percent of their consumption basket) and on public transport. …but core inflation is Underlying price pressures are expected to remain contained, with the impact on core expected to remain inflation expected to be more muted. This is because core inflation excludes administered contained and volatile items, with services and goods in the core price basket affected only indirectly by rising transportation or other input costs of firms taking the opportunity to reset their prices. Core inflation is expected to be around 0.5 percentage points higher in 2013 and 2014, assuming that there is not a sustained increase in inflation expectations (a reasonable assumption given the one-off nature of associated price increases, but will nevertheless require vigilance on the part of BI to act in the event that higher inflation expectations do set in). J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 15 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Headline inflation As mentioned above, the fuel price increases come at a time when headline inflation is moderated in April and easing, driven by lower food inflation, and core inflation is well contained. Headline inflation May… eased to 5.5 percent yoy in May, down slightly from 5.6 percent in April and its recent peak of 5.9 percent in March. Poverty basket inflation has also moderated, to 6.6 percent in May from 7.0 percent yoy in March. Furthermore, core inflation remains relatively low and stable, at 4.0 percent yoy in May, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain moderate (Figure 17), though also helped by the declining trend of the world gold price. Meanwhile, economy-wide inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, continued to grow below headline inflation in the first quarter of this year, easing to 2.5 percent yoy. …due largely to food Food price inflation has eased in recent quarters, to be 11.1 percent yoy in May, following price disinflation the beginning of the main harvest and the reversal of some import restrictions in March for key staples, such as garlic and onions. Food inflation had risen sharply in the first 3 months of this year, peaking at 12.9 percent yoy in March, and driving a pickup in headline and poverty basket inflation. While this increase partly reflected the increase in food prices that typically occurs in the lead up to the main harvest period, severe flooding in January, as well as changes in trade policy as discussed in the March 2013 IEQ, also drove the price of key food staples up. The reversal of some of these measures has seen price falls for a number of key staples, with the price of garlic now below its level as of December of last year (Figure 18). The price of shallots has continued to come down, however, chili prices have increased recently. The domestic price of rice, another key staple, has seen some declines in recent months, though the gap between domestic and international prices has widened, as large crops produced by major producer countries have reduced international rice prices. Figure 17: Inflation has moderated in recent months… Figure 18: …as prices for a number of key food staples have (inflation, percent) fallen (price index, December 2012=100) 3 24 300 Shallots Food inflation yoy (RHS) 2 16 250 Core inflation Red Chili Headline yoy (RHS) inflation yoy (RHS) 200 1 8 Small Chili 150 0 0 Garlic Headline inflation mom (LHS) 100 -1 -8 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 50 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 16 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Economy-wide price Economy-wide price growth has remained muted, with growth in the GDP deflator growth has been moderating significantly from a recent peak of 8.5 percent yoy in Q3 2011, to its current rate subdued, in line with of just 2.5 percent. While this moderation partly reflects an easing in underlying consumer weakness in export inflation, it also stems from a significant easing in the prices of Indonesia’s exports and the prices mining and quarrying sector. Export prices were 1.3 percent lower yoy in the March quarter, while the aggregate price of mining and quarrying sector output was 1.4 percent lower. This drop-off in prices has coincided with significant falls in the prices of Indonesia’s key commodities since late 2011. There are some signs that economy-wide inflation could be turning around, with sequential growth in the GDP deflator picking up in recent quarters. Furthermore, with consumer prices representing a large share of the GDP deflator, GDP deflator inflation will also be affected by the fuel price adjustment. Accordingly, GDP deflator inflation is projected to rise to be 4.3 percent in 2013 and 6.3 percent in 2014. The inflation outlook is A further depreciation in the exchange rate and a sustained increase in inflation expectations contingent on the following the fuel subsidy reform and minimum wage increases, are key upside risks to the movement in the inflation outlook. Pass-through from the higher US Dollar/Rupiah exchange rate into exchange rate and consumer prices has so far been limited. This is in part because, when measured in trade inflation weighted terms, the depreciation of the currency has been mild (see Box 2 in the December expectations… 2012 IEQ), and the effective exchange rate has in fact appreciated in recent months, as discussed in Section 3. A further weakening of the Rupiah, however, would present some upside risk to inflation. …which increased Consumer expectations of near-term inflation have increased in recent months, in line with significantly in May… the anticipation of fuel subsidy reform and higher fuel prices in the near-term. The BI 3- month price expectation index registered a significant increase in May, up by 14.5 basis points reflecting large increases across all components, particularly Transportation, Communication, and Financial Services. While it is usual to see a large increase in near-term price expectations as Ramadan approaches, this increase was much larger than usual, likely reflecting expectations of the mooted subsidized fuel price increase. Furthermore, the 6- month price expectation index increased by 10.3 basis points in May, following declines over the past two months. In line with the increase in consumer expectations, retailers are also expecting inflationary pressures going forward, with BI’s 3-month retailer price expectation index up 20 basis points in April. …and will need to be It will be important to monitor inflation expectations and price-setting behavior over the rest monitored of 2013, given the fuel price increases, but also the large increases in minimum wages granted for 2013. It is not expected that there will be a sustained increase in inflation expectations as a result of the fuel subsidy reform due to the once-off nature of the price increases. In addition, while there is no clear indication that the large increases in minimum wages for 2013 granted by some provinces are materially feeding into higher inflation expectations and wages, wage pressures may yet become more visible and filter into prices as the year progresses. These upside, cost-push risks to the inflation outlook are mitigated by signs of some moderation in domestic demand, which should serve to limit the risks of second-round effects from higher fuel prices or wage pressures. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 17 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly 6. Indonesia’s current account deficit persists despite slowing import growth The current account Indonesia’s current account Figure 19: The balance of payments returned to deficit in Q1 deficit narrowed in the deficit narrowed in the first (USD billion) first quarter of 2013, quarter to USD 5.3 billion, or but the overall balance 2.4 percent of GDP, from 3.6 16 of payments returned percent of GDP in Q4 2012. 12 to deficit This reflected a larger goods trade surplus, of USD 1.6 8 billion. However, this was due not to an increase in 4 exports, which continued to 0 fall in nominal US Dollar terms, but to generally weak -4 Current account Net direct investment imports. The financial and -8 Net portfolio capital account recorded a Net other capital deficit of USD 1.4 billion, its -12 Overall balance first such deficit since Q3 Basic balance -16 2011, on account of strong Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 reported ‘other investment’ net outflows. The basic Note: basic balance is defined as the sum of the current account and direct investment component of the capital and financial account balance, or sum of the Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations current account balance and net FDI, narrowed from USD 3.2 billion in Q4 2012 but remained in a deficit, at USD -1.9 billion, (Figure 19), indicating that Indonesia continues to rely on potentially more volatile portfolio and other investment inflows to finance the current account deficit. The goods trade Total imports contracted 1.6 percent yoy in Q1, while exports were 6 percent lower yoy. balance recovered in However merchandise trade data for April show the non-oil and gas goods trade balance Q1 as weaker imports slipping back into deficit in April on account of a further weakening in exports, while offset the continued imports firmed (Figure 20). A sizable oil and gas trade deficit has been a persistent feature of slowdown in exports Indonesia’s external balances since mid-2012 (Figure 21), widening to USD 3 billion in Q1 2013 (from USD 2.4 billion in Q4 2012). This reflects declining oil and gas receipts, coupled with generally robust domestic demand for energy imports. Indonesia’s exports continue to be weighed down by the lack of recovery in the global prices of its major commodity exports. The benchmark price of coal, Indonesia’s single largest commodity export by revenue, has weakened due to slowing growth in China, the largest buyer of Indonesian coal, as well as a potential Chinese ban on low value coal imports (Box 1). J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 18 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 20: The non-oil and gas trade surplus widened in Q1 Figure 21: …while a sizable oil and gas trade deficit has 2013, before slipping back into a small deficit in April… opened up since mid-2012 (non-oil and gas trade balance, billion USD, and 3 month-moving-average of (oil and gas trade balance, billion USD, and 3 month-moving-average of yoy yoy change in non-oil and gas imports and exports, percent) change in oil and gas imports and exports, percent) 4.5 100 4.5 100 Balance (LHS) 3.0 50 3.0 50 Imports (RHS) Imports (RHS) 1.5 0 1.5 0 Exports (RHS) 0.0 -50 0.0 -50 Exports (RHS) Balance (LHS) -1.5 -100 -1.5 -100 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations While the decline in Weaker imports during the first quarter were due to across the board declines in capital, nominal imports has intermediate and consumer goods imports (Figure 22). The biggest drag, however, came been broad-based, from shrinking capital goods imports, which account for approximately 16 percent of total capital goods imports imports and which fell 19.2 percent (yoy change in 3-month moving average, April) in line has fallen most sharply with recent weakening in domestic investment. Consumer goods imports also slowed over the quarter to be down 10.3 percent (yoy change in 3-month moving average, April). Imports of intermediate goods, which account for around 77 percent of total imports, also weakened. Export revenues Indonesia’s export revenues have continued to weaken (Figure 23), weighed down by the remain under lack of recovery in the global prices of its major commodity exports. The nominal US Dollar pressure.. value of oil and gas exports fell 24.1 percent (yoy change in 3-month moving average, April), while mining and mineral exports fell 1 percent (yoy change in 3-month moving average, April). Among Indonesia’s major commodity exports, only natural gas (which accounts for approximately 10 percent of total exports) has seen a strong recovery in global prices, with benchmark Asian LNG prices up approximately 11 percent in 2013 through May. In coming months, Indonesia’s coal exports may face an additional challenge from reduced Chinese demand (Box 1). …underperforming Indonesia’s total exports have underperformed those of most of its peers in the region due to commodity (Figure 24), reflecting the greater weighting of commodities in Indonesia’s export basket (61 weakness, while percent). Malaysian exports, which are also fairly commodity-dependent (with commodities manufactured export accounting for 37 percent of exports, of which almost 23 percent is fuel) have also revenues have held up underperformed others in the region, registering a 5.9 percent yoy contraction in better but may be exports(yoy change in 3-month moving average, April). Compared to commodity exports, challenged Indonesian manufacturing exports have held up relatively well in recent months, and as of April were essentially flat on their year-ago level (up 0.2 percent, yoy change in 3-month moving average). Yet recent data point to a near-term slowing in export growth across the region, reflecting the deepening recession across Europe, as well as slowing Chinese growth; Thai manufacturing export growth slowed to 3.1 percent yoy to April, from 8.1 percent to March (yoy change in 3-month moving average), while reported Chinese exports slowed sharply in May following an official investigation into alleged export over-invoicing to facilitate illicit capital inflows, which is expected to have inflated official export figures through the early months of 2013 (Figure 25). J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 19 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 22: Capital goods have led a broad-based decline in Figure 23: …while Indonesia’s export revenues are still imports… pressured (3 month-moving-average, yoy import value growth, percent) (3 month moving-average, yoy export value growth, percent) Intermediate Capital Agriculture & forestry Manufacturing Consumer Total imports Mining & minerals Oil & gas 60 Total exports 105 40 70 20 35 0 0 -20 -35 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Figure 24: Indonesia’s exports have underperformed most of Figure 25: Manufacturing exports have been flat, amidst its regional peers recent signs of weaker manufacturing export growth in Asia (3 month-moving-average, yoy export value growth, percent) (3 month-moving-average, yoy import value growth, percent) China Indonesia Japan China Indonesia Japan Malaysia Thailand Vietnam 75 Malaysia Thailand Vietnam 75 50 50 25 25 0 0 -25 -25 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 20 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 1: China’s proposed ban on low quality coal imports poses a risk to Indonesia’s coal exports Figure 26: Low quality coal accounts for 20 percent of China’s National Energy Administration has proposed a ban Indonesian coal exports and could be hit by a Chinese ban on low quality coal imports, which if enacted, could (share of total coal exports, percent) detrimentally impact Indonesian coal exports. According to market reports, the ban is expected to apply to coal with a calorific value of less than around 4,500 kcal per kilogram, with 80 market analysts suggesting that roughly 10 percent of (70 mt) Indonesian coal could be affected.4 60 Coal accounts for 14 percent of Indonesia’s total exports, with low value coal (defined as having a calorific value of less than 5,100 kcal per kg) accounting for around one fifth of 40 Indonesian coal exports, according to government figures for 2011 (Figure 26). China imported 90 million tons of thermal (21 mt) coal from Indonesia in 2012, half of which was lower-rank 20 (13 mt) coal. Meanwhile Indonesian coal production is set to reach 391 million tons in 2013, up from 384 million tons in 2012, (1 mt) according to Government figures.5 - Low Medium High Very high Should the Chinese import ban take effect, Indonesian coal (< 5,100 (5,100-6,100 (6,100-7,100 (> 7,100 producers would attempt to re-direct their sales to other major kkcal/kg) kkcal/kg) kcal/kg) kcal/kg) markets, notably India. Any ban on low value coal imports by Note: Bar chart labels refer to export volumes in million tons (MT) China would place further downward pressure on benchmark Source: Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; coal prices, which have already weakened on concerns of a World Bank staff calculations slowdown in the pace of economic activity and energy demand in China, as well as accelerating exports of US coal which has been displaced by natural gas. Indonesian benchmark coal prices are down 6 percent since March to USD 85 per ton. In Q1, the capital and Turning to the financial and capital account, the financial and capital account deficit of USD financial account 1.4 billion in the first quarter was driven by reported strong ‘other investment’ net outflows recorded its first deficit of USD 7.7 billion. This reflected increased placement of deposits offshore following a since Q3 2011… buildup in foreign exchange reserves among domestic banks as a result of BI’s move to directly meet much of the foreign exchange needs of state-owned energy companies during the first quarter. BI scaled down its interventions as pressures on the Rupiah subsided from February until late May, resulting in a drawdown in private foreign exchange deposits in recent months, although intervention has likely picked up again in recent weeks on heightened Rupiah depreciation pressures. …as portfolio capital Strong net portfolio inflows of USD 2.9 billion were recorded in Q1, particularly into inflows were robust equities. Monthly portfolio inflows remained elevated through April, led by strong foreign and FDI inflows demand for Indonesian government bonds, with net inflows totaling USD 1.8 billion. Net slowed direct investment inflows slowed to USD 3.4 billion (from USD 4.5 billion in Q4 2012), in line with weaker domestic investment. Recent weeks have However, as noted above, the recent correction in Indonesian financial markets has seen an seen large foreign acceleration of foreign portfolio investment outflows since mid-May. Combined equity and portfolio investment government bond investment outflows have totaled USD 3.6 billion since the start of May, outflows with foreign inflows into Indonesian equities reversing all cumulative net inflows in the first half of Q2 to be flat on the quarter, while cumulative net inflows into government bonds over the quarter remained positive at USD 0.4 billion, following very strong inflows in April. 4 Platts, ‘Details of China's import ban on low-CV thermal coal’, 22 May 2013. 5 http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/indonesia-plans-coal-power-projects-as-china-import-curbs- loom/ J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 21 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Fuel subsidy reform is The World Bank estimates that the increase in subsidized fuel prices will reduce total fuel expected to trim fuel import growth, narrowing the current account deficit by 0.1- 0.2 percentage points of GDP, import growth relative to a no-reform scenario. While more difficult to quantify, the reduction in fuel subsidies should also be positively received by foreign portfolio and direct investors in Indonesia, supporting capital inflows over the longer-term. However, temporarily higher inflation in the as a result of the reform may add to depreciation pressures on the Rupiah in the near-term Indonesia’s current Looking ahead, the World Bank projects the current account deficit to total USD 25.2 billion account deficit is in 2013, or 2.7 percent of GDP. This implies a 2013 forecast current account deficit roughly expected to persist at in line with that in 2012 as a share of GDP, of 2.7 percent of GDP. This projection reflects a similar levels to 2012 combination of gradually improving exports and weaker import growth, including due to fuel subsidy reform. The current account is projected to narrow to 2.1 percent of GDP in 2014 as exports recover further. The overall balance of payments is expected to record a deficit of USD 4.8 billion in 2013, on account of the Q1 outcome, anticipated whole-year current account deficit, and the recent deterioration in capital inflows to emerging markets, including Indonesia. As noted in the March 2013 IEQ, the weakening in Indonesia’s balance of payments dynamics and further Rupiah depreciation pressures have occurred against the backdrop of a gross external financing need which has risen significantly in recent years, driven primarily by increased gross private external debt (see Box 2). Indonesia’s ability to sustain strong FDI inflows, attract potentially volatile portfolio capital investment, and navigate the needed adjustments to ensure the balance of its external position will therefore likely remain in focus. Box 2: External debt levels remain modest but liquidity risk has risen Indonesia’s gross external stock has been growing since 2006, almost doubling from USD 133 billion to USD 257 billion as of April 2013. In light of the increase in market volatility seen during and since the 2008/9 global financial crisis, including over the last quarter for emerging markets, this sizable increase in external debt in absolute terms merits closer examination to assess Indonesia’s vulnerability to external shocks. At the outset, it is important to note that the sustainability of Indonesia’s external debt position is not in doubt, with the latest (2012) IMF Article IV report, for example, finding that Indonesia’s “…external debt ratio is expected to follow a declining path, and remain at manageable levels, under all standardized-shock scenarios.” While total external debt (owned by non-residents) has risen in absolute terms, as a share of GDP external debt has trended lower, declining from 47.7 percent of GDP in 2005 to 29.7 percent of GDP at end 2012 (Figure 27). This decline in external debt has been driven by a sharp reduction in external public debt, which decreased from 28.4 percent to 14.8 percent of GDP. Conversely, the ratio of private sector external debt to GDP has fallen to 12 percent in 2010 and risen again to 15 percent at end 2012. Private debt now accounts for 50.2 percent of total external debt as of end-April, up from 40.3 percent in 2005. The sustained increase in private sector external debt in recent years has been led by firms across several sectors, particularly those in the mining and drilling, electricity, gas and water, and financial, leasing and business services sectors. The borrowing of the financial sector, driven by foreign banks and joint ventures, accounts for the bulk of the debt increase. Financial sector external debt has almost tripled, climbing from USD 12.9 billion in 2006 to USD 35.2 billion at end-April 2013, or 27.3 percent of total private external debt (Figure 28), surpassing that of the manufacturing sector (down to 20.3 percent from 32.4 percent as a share of total). Firms in the mining and drilling sector have been the next most active source of additional external borrowing, with debt rising four-fold over 2006-2012 and accounting for 16.8 percent of total private external debt at end April 2013 (Figure 28). Finally, the external debt of companies in the utility sector has risen from USD 6.5 billion to USD 16.3 billion. Standard metrics indicate an increase in the liquidity risks associated with Indonesia’s external debt position. Short term external debt (by remaining maturity) has increased significantly since 2006 and now accounts for 21.7 percent of total debt, up from 15.6 percent in 2006, due mainly to the rise in short term private debt, which now accounts of 72.6 percent of total short-term external debt, up from 59.4 percent in 2006. The ratio of private short term debt over exports has grown steadily from 9.9 percent to 17.8 percent over this period, though this ratio has also been affected since 2011 by the decline in exports. As of April 2013, total external short term debt equated to half of Indonesia total currency reserves (Figure 27). Indonesia’s external debt service financing requirement has also risen, increasing as a share of exports from a quarter in 2007 to more than three quarters in 2012 (Figure 27). There is also an increasing reliance on US Dollar-denominated debt, which now accounts for 88 percent of total private external debt, to the relative detriment of the Japanese Yen. Thus, while some firms may enjoy natural US Dollar hedges, such as in the mining and drilling sector, the greater concentration of external debt in US Dollars may imply greater vulnerability to a sharp appreciation of the US Dollar. A number of factors mitigate the risks Indonesia may face from the increased use of external financing by banks and corporations. First, in the non-financial sectors, the bulk of new borrowing has been from parent and affiliated lenders and such inter-company J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 22 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly loans may be less vulnerable to roll-over risk, and are one component of the strong increase in foreign direct investment into Indonesia experienced in recent years. In fact, if anything, official statistics likely understate the inter-company loan share in the overall external debt, since inter-dependencies between onshore and offshore affiliated companies are not always transparent. Further, since 2011, according to Bank Indonesia, compliance with external debt reporting requirements has also improved, increasing the visibility of private external debt in the official statistics and making it more difficult to interpret the upward trend in reported debt stocks and servicing costs. Over time, ongoing improvements in statistical coverage should facilitate improved monitoring of Indonesia’s private external debt dynamics, including at the more micro level; the top 100 companies in terms of external debt ranking account for around 65 percent of overall debt exposure. Figure 27: External debt solvency metrics have improved but Figure 28: Private external debt is widely distributed across some liquidity risk indicators have increased economic sectors (percent) (private external debt by sector as of April 2013, percent of total) Private debt/GDP Agriculture, 80 80 forestry, fishing Public debt/GDP Mining and drilling 70 Short-term debt/reserves 70 Financial 4.8 Debt service/exports Manufacturing 60 60 16.8 50 50 Electricity, gas and water works 20.3 Housing and 40 40 27.3 building 30 30 12.6 Trading, hotel and restaurants 20 20 5.3 Transport and 8.1 communcation 10 10 3.8 Services Non-financial 0 0 Other sectors 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Note: *2013 data is April 2013 and applies only to ST debt/reserves Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations 7. Risks to the outlook remain heightened on domestic and external grounds The growth outlook The World Bank base case is for economic growth in Indonesia to slow only moderately in faces risks… 2013, from 6.2 percent in 2012 to 5.9 percent in 2013, before picking up again in 2014. The key risk to this outlook is to the downside, where the recent modest weakening in domestic growth momentum extends and Indonesia experiences a more pronounced slow-down. … as fuel subsidy The increase in subsidized fuel prices, while necessary on fiscal grounds and a positive reform presents development in terms of meeting Indonesia’s medium-term development goals, presents challenges to challenges to macroeconomic management in the near term. Higher fuel prices will initially macroeconomic generate a large one-off increase in the price level. Underlying price pressures are expected to management in the remain contained, yet if temporarily higher inflation shows signs of feeding into higher short-term… inflation expectations, and if the Rupiah remains under pressure, further monetary tightening may be necessary, slowing the pace of growth. The resilience of private consumption, the single biggest source of demand in the economy, will be tested over the remainder of 2013 by the higher temporary inflation. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 23 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly … while investment The weakening of investment growth, which began in mid-2012, likely reflects the lagged growth has continued impact of weaker commodity prices since mid-2011. Commodity sector conditions affect to weaken investment directly, as seen by the sharp drop-off in foreign transportation, and machinery and equipment investment, which is a key input in commodity-related activity. The strength of commodity demand also feeds into investment demand indirectly by affecting export earnings, household consumption (through household incomes, especially in regions where commodity production is important), as well affecting investment funding availability (through company profits). Given the complexity of these terms of trade and income effects, the lumpy nature of many investment projects, and the uncertainty surrounding international commodity prices, the future course of investment is difficult to predict and is a key source of uncertainty in the growth projections. Furthermore, should the latest down-turn in international commodity prices persist, investment could prove to be more of a drag on growth than currently expected. There is renewed As set out in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report in June, the tail risks of a sharp uncertainty over slowdown in global economic growth, such as resulting from a renewal of financial market external demand… distress in the Euro Area, have lessened since the March 2013 IEQ. However, slowing growth momentum amongst some major middle income economies and the sharp sell-off seen in emerging markets in recent months adds to the uncertainties over the trajectory of the global economy. Further weakening in global commodity prices poses a particular, significant downside risk to the outlook for Indonesia’s economy. …with Indonesian External financing conditions Figure 29: Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves are financial markets have become more substantial but so are external exposures facing challenges from challenging. Indonesian bond (balance, USD billion) weaker demand for and equity markets remain Sep 2008 May 2010 emerging market relatively vulnerable to a Non-resident SBI assets globally… continued sell-off in holdings Sep 2011 May 2013 emerging market assets Non-resident local gov. compared to regional peers, securities holdings given the large presence of foreign investors relative to Non-resident equity the size of domestic equities holdings and bond markets, though Indonesia’s foreign exchange Short-term external debt reserve buffer remains substantial (Figure 29). While the direct wealth effects of Total FX Reserves falling equities and other asset prices on households’ and 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 firms’ consumption and Note: External debt data to April 2013, all other figures to end-May investment decisions are Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations likely to be small given their small direct exposures to these assets in aggregate, especially given the offsetting impact of ongoing robust property price growth (a sector which is less directly exposed to offshore conditions), consumer and business confidence may be affected, with flow-on impacts to consumption and investment. The confidence of local investors, and their cross-border asset allocations, also remains key to the outlook. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 24 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and highlighting the Recent events and the base case outlook for the coming quarters suggest that Indonesia’s need to make policy settings likely need to adjust to somewhat less buoyant economic conditions, and continued potentially to more difficult external financing conditions. Bank Indonesia’s decision to raise macroeconomic policy the overnight deposit facility and policy rates in early June, and the increase in subsidized fuel adjustments prices, are examples of policy adjustments to changing conditions, which can help safeguard macro stability, in support of future growth. Allowing the Rupiah exchange rate to adjust further gradually, should this be warranted by developments in Indonesia’s external position, may also be desirable. Maintaining a flexible, yet predictable and well-communicated, approach to macroeconomic policy-making, as well as continued progress in the implementation of policies and improvement of the regulatory environment, will be key as Indonesia continues to navigate a period of significant domestic and international economic challenges. Although it is too early The current forest and peat fires in Sumatra, which have caused high levels of haze in to quantify the costs, Sumatra and Kalimantan (as well as neighboring countries), add to the downside risks to the the severe haze caused economic outlook. There are likely to be significant economic, health and environmental by forest and peat fires costs to Indonesia from disruption to commerce, losses to productivity, resources deployed in Sumatra is an added to tackle the fires (including the special task force that has been put in place), negative near-term challenge economic spillover effects from affected neighbors and trading partners, impairment of health and degradation of forest and land assets. The total cost and the risk to the overall economic outlook are not yet known, but are likely to be in the billions of dollars. The 1997/98 haze episode is estimated to have cost USD 9 billion for Southeast Asia (Applegate, 2006) and USD 6.3 billion for Indonesia alone (according to the Asian Development Bank). Today, with more sophisticated agriculture and tourism industries in place and higher population density in these areas, the economic losses could be even higher. On the environmental side, these fires have the potential to eliminate most of the recent progress made on climate change mitigation in the forest sector. In addition, the fires and haze generate tension with Indonesia’s important neighbors, distracts policymakers and generates negative international publicity. The fact that this is a seasonally recurring problem despite the substantial costs highlights the significant governance challenges present in the natural resource sectors. Although the use of fire is illegal (in 2001, Indonesia passed a law [Government Regulation 4/2001] that forbids all forest and land fires), fires are still deliberately started for forest clearance purposes, especially within oil palm and industrial tree plantation concession areas. Enforcement of the existing law and better land use practices require a common effort from the public and private sector, including the plantation companies, many of them from Malaysia and Singapore. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 25 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly B. Some recent developments in Indonesia’s economy 1. Examining the fuel subsidy compensation package To avoid adverse The reduction of the fuel subsidy is expected to increase inflation, driven primarily by the effects of fuel price increase in fuel, food, and transportation prices throughout Indonesia, as discussed in increases on the poor, Section 5 of Part A. As food and transport costs comprise a large share of a poor or the Government will vulnerable household’s expenditures, any increase in these costs is likely to have a negative invest in a wide- impact. World Bank projections estimate that, in the absence of compensation, the increase reaching compensation in fuel prices (to IDR 6,500 per liter for petrol and IDR 5,500 per liter for diesel) would package… significantly slow the decrease in the poverty rate; without compensation, the official poverty rate would fall from 12 percent in March 2012 to 10.5 percent in March 2014, implying a significantly slower pace of poverty reduction than that seen over recent years. In contrast, with a short-term compensation measure of a cash transfer to poor and vulnerable households for four months, projections suggest that poverty will fall more significantly, to 9.4 percent by March 2014. The compensation package included in the revised Budget is therefore expected to play a key role in helping Indonesia continue to reduce the poverty rate in the short-term despite higher subsidized fuel prices, as well as constituting a significant expansion of social protection over the longer-run. The following Section will review the individual components of the Government’s overall compensation package, and assess the extent to which these programs are expected to provide adequate, timely and effective assistance for protecting poor and vulnerable households that are least able to cope with the negative effects of higher fuel prices.6 … to both cushion To avoid a negative impact of higher fuel prices on poor and vulnerable households, two households in the types of responses are required. First, short-term and temporary protection measures are short-run and expand needed to cushion households from the immediate inflationary impact of the fuel price the social protection increase. Second, long-term responses can help to support on-going poverty reduction system in the long-run efforts – especially targeting the poorest households – and address rising inequality. 6 This Section draws from research conducted by the World Bank on Indonesia’s social assistance programs. All research reports are available at www.worldbank.org/id/poverty. (See World Bank, 2012. Protecting Poor and Vulnerable Households) J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 26 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reflecting these twin response types, the Government of Indonesia prepared a compensation package that is included in the 2013 Budget revision recently approved by Parliament. The package, totaling IDR 29.05 trillion or about 74 percent of the total fuel subsidy savings, includes two main components: a) the Special Compensation Program (Program Kompensasi Khusus), and b) the Social Protection Acceleration and Expansion Program (Program Percepatan dan Perluasan Perlindungan Sosial, P4S). Figure 30: Savings support a range of programs Table 7: Compensation will reach 15.5 million households (share of savings allocated by program, percent) (budget allocations by program, Rupiah) Amount Components Basic (IDR trillion) infrastruc- ture; 25% BLSM (@ IDR 150.000, for 4 months, for 9.3 BLSM; 32% 15.5 households) Conditional cash transfer (PKH) 0.7 Rice for the poor (Raskin) 4.3 Conditional Scholarship for the poor (BSM) 7.5 cash transfer Basic infrastructure 7.25 (PKH); 2% Total compensation packages 29.05 Scholarship Rice for the for the poor poor (BSM); (Raskin); 26% 15% Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance a. Short-term programs to protect poor and vulnerable households Short-term programs to Program Kompensasi Khusus includes three temporary measures to protect poor and vulnerable cushion poor households from the inflationary shock of the fuel price increase: households from a. First, an unconditional cash transfer (Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat, BLSM) in immediate effects have the amount of IDR 150,000/household/month for a duration of four months will be been controversial… provided to 15.5 million households in two payments. b. Second, in addition to the 15kg of rice per poor household per month that is already being distributed through the Rice for the Poor (Beras Miskin, Raskin) program, the Government will provide an additional 45 kilograms (kg) of subsidized rice to the same households that will receive BLSM. This will be provided in 15kg bundles once a month for three months. c. Third, some of the savings will be re-allocated to three short-term infrastructure programs: community level infrastructure (Percepatan Perluasan Pembangunan Infrastruktur Permukiman, P4-IP), potable water systems (Percepatan Perluasan Pembangunan Sistem Penyediaan Air Minum, P4-SPAM), and irrigation and water source infrastructure (Percepatan Perluasan Pembangunan Infrastruktur Sumber Daya Air, P4-ISDA). Much of the controversy surrounding the design of the compensatory measures has focused on the proposal to use BLSM as an instrument to buffer poor and vulnerable households from the fuel price increase. Opponents have argued that cash benefits could be easily politicized and used as a means for political parties to garner support in the run-up to general elections scheduled for 2014. In addition, there were many concerns about the effectiveness of using unconditional cash transfers to protect the poor. Critics argued that such programs are not effective; they are more likely to be misspent, not reach those who deserve protection, foster laziness among the poor or create greater dependency on the state. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 27 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly …but research shows Research on Indonesia’s experience with unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) can shed light that cash transfers are on the debate about the effectiveness of the upcoming BLSM program.7 Following the most effective in increase of fuel prices in 2005, the Government launched the Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT), quickly providing which provided cash compensation totaling IDR 1,200,000, delivered in four installments, to protection a total of 19 million recipient households. The program was again deployed in 2008 when fuel prices temporarily increased further, and 18.4 million households were compensated with a total of IDR 900,000, divided into three payments. Research conducted by the World Bank on the implementation and effectiveness of UCTs in Indonesia found that:  BLT was effective in preventing poor households from being negatively affected. The transfers, equal to approximately 15 percent of monthly spending, were sufficient to keep targeted households from falling further behind. Moreover, there was also a spill-over effect: the BLT program actually helped to stimulate an increase in spending among non-recipient households. As a consequence, the World Bank has estimated that without the 2008-09 BLT, poverty would have increased in March 2009 to 15.8 percent from 15.4 percent in March 2008, rather than falling as it did with the BLT, to 14.2 percent.  There is no evidence that beneficiary households misspent the transfer. BLT was used to buy basic necessities (especially rice), one-time costs like school fees or clothes for Eid ul-Fitr holidays, or transportation costs. Spending on tobacco and alcohol did not increase in BLT households relative to poor households that did not receive the transfer.  Similarly, there is no evidence that BLT induced laziness or dependency. Heads of households that received BLT were not more likely to leave work. This is most likely because the size of the benefit was not large enough, or sustained enough, to discourage working. In fact, BLT households were more likely (by ten percentage points) to report that they had found new jobs and moved into employment, perhaps using the BLT money for transportation to more distant but better jobs, or to assist with childcare.  BLT funds reached almost all recipients on the beneficiary lists, but local officials increasingly extracted “fees” from beneficiaries. Transfers were made directly from the Ministry of Finance to beneficiary households, through post offices, eliminating opportunities for misdirection of the funds. There were reports, however, that after cash transfers were collected by recipients some post office officials and community officials charged “fees.” This occurred 10 percent of the time in 2005, and 46-54 percent of the time in 2008-09. This was typically done to re-distribute to households that were not included in the list (due to miss-targeting or otherwise) and to subsidize collective transportation and identity card costs.  There is no evidence that shows whether or not BLT undermined social capital. Some critics of cash transfer programs in Indonesia argue that it can erode social capital such as seen through voluntary community work, or gotong royong. No research to date, however, has clearly proven the effects of cash transfers, either negative or positive. These findings indicate that UCTs are effective in providing temporary assistance to buffer poor households from short-term price shocks. Moreover, the mechanism for disbursing the transfers is the more direct and simple than any of the other existing social assistance programs available in Indonesia, although implementation matters for the benefits to be fully effective. But the exclusion of Nevertheless, the BLT still excluded many poor and vulnerable households that were not many poor indicated a included on the beneficiary list. With a coverage of 18.5m households, BLT was targeted at need for better approximately the poorest 30 percent of households. Of these, around half were excluded, targeting methods according to a recent World Bank report, and half of all benefits went to households outside of the poorest 30 percent. Despite this, when targeting was compared across Indonesia’s major social assistance programs, BLT performed the best. In order to be effective as a social assistance instrument, program targeting needs to ensure that benefits are received by poor and vulnerable households. 7 World Bank. 2012. Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) temporary unconditional cash transfer. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 28 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly In-kind transfers, In-kind transfers, such as the provision of subsidized rice through Raskin, are another however, are shown to mechanism that can quickly provide protection to at-risk households. Previous research, be less reliable however, shows that the program faces many delivery challenges.8 In 2010, recipient households reported that they bought an average of 3.8kg per month, far short of the 13- 16kg of subsidized rice that should have been provided to poor and vulnerable households (based on public announcements). While some of the rice is re-distributed across communities, up to 30 percent of Raskin allocations (based on estimates between November 2003 and January 2004) went missing in-between the distribution points and Raskin-buying households; in some areas the estimated rate was as high as 75 percent. Furthermore, the Raskin price for households is often higher than the stipulated price. Between November 2006 and January 2007, households reported paying IDR 1,689 per kilogram of Raskin rice, while the official price was IDR 1,000 per kilogram. Efforts, however, are currently underway to improve the targeting, socialization and delivery of Raskin benefits. Advances in targeting Since 2010, the Secretariat of the National Team for the Acceleration of Poverty Reduction will ensure that (TNP2K), with the assistance of Statistics Indonesia (BPS), has been developing a Unified benefits are more likely Database of potential beneficiaries (Basis Data Terpadu, or BDT). This has the important to reach the right advantage of being a single registry to target all programs, rather than having to rely on a households… fragmented set of lists held by different programs, as was done in the past.9 As a consequence, poor households are more likely to receive all the programs to which they are entitled, rather than just some. Moreover, the careful design of the database and incorporation of international best practices means that many of the previously excluded poor households will now become program beneficiaries. …as Indonesia begins The BDT includes 25 million households, or just over 40 percent of Indonesians. BDT is to move towards a now operational and has already been used to select 400,000 new beneficiaries for the 2012 more integrated social expansion of Indonesia’s pilot conditional cash transfer program, Program Keluarga Harapan assistance (PKH). In addition, 76.4 million names were drawn from the BDT for the new Jamkesmas framework… (health fee waivers for the poor) cards, and 15.5 million households for targeting Raskin. Also, the Ministry of Education has agreed to use the BDT for the selection of beneficiaries for Bantuan untuk Siswa Miskin (BSM), a series of programs that provide financial assistance to poor students. The TNP2K team managing the registry has been working closely with various regional governments at both provincial and district level who have requested the data for local government social assistance and poverty alleviation programs financed by regional budgets. For some of these programs, such as Jamkesda (local health assistance programs, which supplement Jamkesmas), using the Unified Database to select beneficiaries provides the necessary coordination in targeting to avoid overlapping beneficiaries. With the launch of Program Kompensasi Khusus and P4S, the Government is taking the opportunity to issue a Social Protection Card (Kartu Perlindungan Sosial, or KPS) to the poorest 15.5 million households in the database. This card is the basis for receiving BLSM and additional Raskin benefits from the compensation program, as well as for eligibility for an expanded BSM under P4S. The use of a single card for multiple programs marks an important first step towards an integrated social assistance framework in Indonesia. This will be the first time Indonesia has coordinated social assistance programs and beneficiaries using a single registry, and paves the way in the future for integrated delivery of benefits, as well as complaints and grievances. …and ensures that Furthermore, the Government will be coordinating with local communities to help identify beneficiary lists are up- poor households which are currently excluded from the BDT database. Recent field research to-date by the Government, the World Bank and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J- PAL, from the Economics Department of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) has shown that carefully facilitated community involvement can improve targeting outcomes, particularly amongst the poorest. These findings were based on controlled experiments, 8 World Bank 2012. Raskin Subsidized Rice Delivery 9 World Bank 2012. Targeting Poor and Vulnerable Household in Indonesia. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 29 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly using trained facilitators. Successful implementation of community targeting methods, however, will depend on designing and delivering methods that can be scaled up and replicated in communities across the country. If successful, not only will community targeting processes help identify additional poor households to receive compensation, it will also contribute to the planned 2014 update and expansion of the database, as these households will be incorporated into the recertification process, which is required to keep the BDT updated over time. With the provision of The provision of BLSM to Figure 31: With BLSM, the poverty rate will continue to drop the BLSM, poverty poor and vulnerable Indonesia Poverty Rate (percent), actual and forecasted scenarios reduction is expected households will help No price increase to continue Indonesia maintain Price increase, no BLSM advances in reducing Price increase, BLSM 18 poverty. With the provision of the unconditional cash transfer for a period of four 16 months, the World Bank estimates that the poverty 14 rate will fall to 9.4 percent by March 2014, instead of a 12 more modest decline to 10.5 percent in the case of a price 10 increases but no BLSM compensation (Figure 31). 8 The anticipated decline in 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* the poverty rate following the increase in subsidized Note: 2013 is World Bank estimate, 2014 are World Bank estimates under each scenario fuel prices accompanied by Source: BPS, World Bank estimates compensation would be consistent with the experience of the 2008 subsidized fuel price increase. b. Long-term programs to promote poor and vulnerable households The fuel subsidy The Government is also re-allocating the savings from subsidy reduction towards two of reform has provided a the permanent household-based social protection programs: unique opportunity for d. Bantuan untuk Siswa Miskin (BSM). The coverage of BSM will almost double from 8.7 Indonesia to scale-up million to 16.6 million beneficiaries. The benefit levels will also significantly increase: and enhance its primary school (SD) benefits will increase from IDR 360,000 to IDR 450,000 per year emerging social per student, while junior secondary (SMP) benefits will increase from IDR 550,000 to protection system… IDR 750,000 per year per student. e. Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), the conditional cash transfer program. This program will also be expanded from the current level of 1.5 million households to 2.4 million households in 2013 and 3.2 million households in 2014. At the same time, average benefit levels will increase from IDR 1.4 million to IDR 1.8 million per year per household. By re-allocating fuel subsidy savings to its long-term social programs, Indonesia is effectively using this opportunity to both scale up and reform its emerging social assistance system. This is much needed. In 2010, Indonesia spent almost IDR 30 trillion on its social assistance programs, equivalent to 0.5 percent of GDP. This is low in comparison to other East Asian countries that spend, on average, 1 percent of GDP, or Latin American countries that spend an average of 1.3 percent of GDP. Although there is still a need to deepen investments in social protection as Indonesia transitions to more sophicated systems that are appropriate for a middle-income economy, the reallocation of fuel subsidy savings this year is a significant step in the right direction. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 30 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 32: Programs will significantly increase coverage of Figure 33: …and benefit levels are increasing poor and vulnerable households… (benefit levels by program, million IDR per year) (coverage levels by program, millions) 20 2.0 16 Currently Expanded Currently Expanded 1.5 12 1.0 8 0.5 4 0 0.0 BSM PKH BSM - SD BSM - SMP PKH Note: * Millions of students (BSM) or households (PKH) Source: TNP2K Source: TNP2K P4S includes By expanding financial assistance for poor students and increasing benefit levels, the subsidy significant reforms that savings can help to mitigate the problem of rising inequality in Indonesia by improving the will improve the mobility of the next generation. Benefit level increases and advances in program targeting effectiveness of address some of the main program challenges identified in the World Bank’s review of this Indonesia’s education social assistance program.10 assistance program Improvements in the adequacy of BSM assistance. In the past, assistance was not adequate for poor families to keep their children in school. Typically, the benefit levels were equal to approximately 30 percent of education out-of-pocket costs faced by families. Also, BSM amounts were not indexed to inflation; therefore, beneficiaries saw the value of the transfers erode over time. By increasing the benefit levels through the P4S program, it is more likely that households will be able to afford to keep their children in school for the mandatory levels of primary and junior senior secondary. Improvements in the targeting of BSM assistance. The P4S program continues the Government’s overhaul of the methods used to target BSM. As mentioned above, the Ministry of Education and Culture and the Ministry of Religious Affairs have been working closely with the TNP2K Secretariat to use the Unified Database to target BSM beneficiaries. Previously, the distribution of assistance was carried out by school-based committees based on local quotas that were not aligned with regional poverty rates. The targeting performance was poor; a student from the richest 60 percent of households was equally likely to receive assistance as a student from the bottom 40 percent of households. In addition to using the unified database to identify student beneficiaries, major changes have been made in how benefits are claimed. Students from eligible families can now approach schools, carrying their Social Protection Card and supporting documentation, to claim their entitled assistance. By empowering beneficiaries in this way, it is expected that the expansion of BSM through the P4S program will help to ensure that a greater share of assistance will reach students who are at the greatest risk of dropping out. … and more effective PKH is a social assistance program that has proven to be effective in tackling chronic and social protection for extreme poverty. An impact evaluation of the program conducted by the World Bank in very poor households 2011 found that beneficiaries were significantly more likely to use local health services and 10 World Bank, 2012. Bantuan Siswa Miskin Cash Transfers for Poor Students. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 31 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly that are targeted by adopt healthy behaviors including: pre-natal care, birth deliveries at health facilities, post- PKH natal care, immunizations, and growth monitoring check-ups for babies and infants.11 Program impact on improving school enrollment and time spent in school, however, was statistically insignificant (with the exception of hours spent in school, which only saw a 5 percent improvement over baseline values). As with BSM, given existing PKH implementation issues identified in the World Bank’s review of Indonesia’s social assistance programs, the reforms that will be carried out through the P4S program are also likely to increase the effectiveness of the PKH program. Improvements in the adequacy of PKH benefits. It is likely that the full impact of the program was not realized because the benefit levels did not match the expenses faced by families in order to afford health and education services. For example, benefit levels were sufficient to cover the total expenditures for one year of junior secondary education, but less than half (43 percent) if transportation costs were included. Similarly, mid-wife delivery charges range between IDR 200,000 – 800,000 (based on a 2008 SMERU study), which at the high end is equivalent to the previous PKH transfer for pregnant mothers. Also, the benefit levels have not been adjusted for inflation, which has eroded the real value of the cash transfers over time; this resulted in a 22 percent decline in the real value of the benefit levels between 2007 and 2010 (adjusted using poverty basket inflation). Under the P4S program, minimum benefit levels will increase from IDR 600,000 to IDR 800,000 per year per family, and the maximum benefit level will increase from IDR 2,200,000 to IDR 2,800,000 (the calculation is based on number of number and age of children, and the inclusion of pregnant or lactating women in the family). In addition, by receiving the Social Protection Card, PKH beneficiary families will automatically have access to the BSM program, BLSM and Raskin allocations. This will be the first time that individual programs in Indonesia are deployed as a system to provide comprehensive support to extremely and chronically poor households. Taken together, this assistance will allow them to better afford to invest in health and education services, increasing the chance that their children can better help themselves escape poverty. Attention is needed to The design of the compensation package is a major advance in the evolution of Indonesia’s ensure that programs emerging social protection system, similar to the pathway followed by more advanced are properly delivered middle-income economies. The success of the program, however, will depend on efficient and monitored and effective delivery of the individual components of the program. In the past, implementation problems have undermined the efficacy of these programs. In the BSM program, for example, 83 percent of students who reported receiving assistance in 2009 reported receiving only 39-50 percent of stated benefit levels. Although it takes time to build effective delivery systems, there are immediate actions that the government can undertake to monitor and improve the delivery of P4S programs.  First, focus on improving beneficiary awareness of entitled benefits under the compensation package. In the past, the delivery of social assistance programs has been undermined by limited beneficiary knowledge about the program or how to claim benefits. A vast majority of interviewed Jamkesmas cardholders, for example, did not know what hospital outpatient services their card entitled them to. An experiment conducted by J-PAL in cooperation with the TNP2K Secretariat on innovations in Raskin delivery, found that beneficiaries received more subsidized rice when awareness raising activities informed them about how much rice they were entitled to. Therefore, communication materials and strategies prepared by the TNP2K Secretariat for P4S play an important role in the implementation of the program, but responsibility still falls on implementing agencies to use the materials to improve awareness of beneficiaries and their communities.  Second, conduct in-time monitoring of the program in order to fix problems during implementation and ensure accountability for P4S delivery. Program monitoring is typically carried out by local- 11 World Bank 2012. Programa Keluarga Harapan Conditional Cash Transfer. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 32 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly level implementers and delegated with limited financial or technical support, and no response systems to resolve identified issues. The P4S program provides an opportunity to test innovations to monitor program delivery. The possibilities include: third party monitoring of implementation (university and NGO networks, for example, are both credible and widespread), monitoring through national survey instruments implemented by BPS, and piloting with mobile technology and complaint centers. While central coordination agencies, such as the TNP2K Secretariat and Bappenas will play a major role in designing and executing monitoring systems, the cooperation of central implementing agencies and local governments is critical.  Finally, conduct comprehensive evaluations to assess program effectiveness. Learning from this experience, the Government can improve the design and performance of its social protection programs by learning what works and what does not work. If possible, the findings for the evaluation can be linked to future budget allocations of implementing agencies to encourage improvements in program delivery.  J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 33 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2. Indonesia’s challenge: implementing the new social security system Indonesia is The Government of Indonesia is in the process of implementing a new National Social implementing a new Security System (Sistem Sosial Nasional, or SJSN). Programs under the new system are social security mandatory and will cover all Indonesians, including both formal and informal sector system… workers, for five benefits – health, pension, old-age savings, death benefits and work accident – and provide the same benefits for all. Contributions to the SJSN programs are set at levels that are sufficient to finance expected expenditures; each fund should be self- sustaining. The legal bases for the new system are Law No. 40/2004 on National Social Security System and Law No. 24/2011 on Social Security Administrative Bodies (Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial, or BPJS). This Section provides a brief overview of the ambitious task of implementing the SJSN system, focusing on key challenges and factors to consider for successful implementation of the new and comprehensive social security system. …which may bring big The national social security system will help Indonesia mobilize the population’s increasing benefits for the country disposable income to strengthen the coverage and depth of the health system, protect and its citizens against premature death and work injuries, and provide income security following exit from the labor force. The SJSN programs are consistent with the government’s pro-poor, pro- jobs, pro-growth agenda, and will play a major role in supporting the government’s macroeconomic policies, in the medium- and long-term. They are also part of the programs to ensure human rights and individual dignity for all Indonesians. If implemented well, the SJSN programs can help reduce vulnerability, protect against economic shocks, facilitate job mobility, reduce poverty among the elderly, help reduce inequality, and mobilize scarce savings. Fulfillment of the SJSN The success of the new system will ultimately depend on how well it is designed, vision depends on implemented and managed. The Government’s efforts to implement a well-designed, fiscally future decisions and sustainable, robust and comprehensive national social protection system will prove actions challenging and will require a series of major actions from the Government and the BPJS to succeed. Collaboration among implementation working group members from multiple ministries will be needed to ensure collective agreement on the broad strategy for the implementation and operation of the new system. a. Putting the change in context: Where Indonesia is now Social security Indonesia currently has social insurance schemes covering separate segments of the labor coverage is currently market. A different social security administrator manages each scheme. These fragmented and administrators are for-profit state-owned enterprises that report to the Ministry of State- incomplete… Owned Enterprises and are supervised by a variety of different Ministries. Only about 12 percent of workers are covered by a pension scheme, almost entirely in the formal sector, and about 60 percent of the entire Indonesian population are covered by health insurance. …with coverage for The administrator PT Taspen manages the pension and endowment insurance programs for civil servants, the civil servants and PT Asabri manages the pension and endowment insurance for military and military and police police personnel. Civil servants receive a lifetime pension annuity financed by the state budget and paid through PT Taspen. They are also eligible for an endowment insurance program that pays a lump sum at retirement and death benefits before and after retirement. Military personnel have very similar benefits to those of civil servants, but PT Asabri manages those programs. Only civil servants, the military and those covered by voluntary employer-sponsored defined benefit pension plans are currently eligible for lifetime monthly annuity benefits. … but limited coverage PT Jamsostek provides social insurance for formal sector workers. Almost every enterprise for formal sector is obliged to register itself and its workers with PT Jamsostek and provide social security workers… benefits to its employees. Unfortunately, compliance is poor and only about 10 million out of an estimated 40 million formal sector workers are active contributors. One of the social insurance programs is an old age savings fund, referred to as Jaminan Hari Tua (JHT). …and very limited The bulk of informal sector workers have no social protection. There is a small pilot J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 34 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly informal sector, and program for informal workers sponsored by Jamsostek that includes old age savings health, coverage benefits. The progress in expanding coverage through the Jamsostek pilot project, however, has been slow. The total number of members was only about 400,000 by the end of 2010. The turnover of members is also very high, as members can sign up and leave the program at any given time. In terms of health insurance coverage, PT Askes provides insurance primarily to civil servants and their families and covers about 16.4 million people. PT Jamsostek provides health insurance to about 5.5 million people, while another 10 million are covered by employers who opted out of Jamsostek coverage and established their own programs. The Jamkesmas fee-waiver program sponsored by the Ministry of Health provides coverage to about 86.4 million poor and vulnerable people while Jamkesda programs (financed by local government budgets and generally complementary to the national Jamkesmas program) cover about 32 million, though some of these may also be covered by Jamkesmas. Finally, about 5 million individuals have purchased private health insurance. Consequently, the total covered is about 150 million, or about 60% of the population. Implementation of The SJSN program implementation began in earnest with the passage of the BPJS Law in SJSN, starting with the November 2011. The law reduces the number of social security administrators, introduces a health system, is now new legal and governance structure and a simpler system of supervision, increases system underway… transparency and provides more open public information. In addition, decrees issued by the Coordinating Ministry of People’s Welfare in February and March 2012, established the bureaucratic structure and responsibilities for SJSN implementation. The SJSN health system will begin on January 1, 2014. The Government has already issued a regulation defining the benefit package for the health program. The required contribution rates for the poor, informal sector and formal sector, however, are still under discussion. The health benefit package is comprehensive and covers almost all types of medically- required interventions. This is consistent with the requirements of the SJSN Law. It also maintains the high level of coverage that is currently provided under the Jamkesmas program, which has the richest benefit package of any program in the country today. Even expensive procedures such as open heart surgery, organ transplants, hemodialysis and cancer treatment are covered. This will put a tremendous strain on Indonesia’s health system, as it will likely take the government years to increase the supply side – facilities, equipment, medical supplies and health care professionals – to sufficiently handle the expected demand for sophisticated health services. The SJSN employment programs – including pension (defined benefit), old-age savings (defined contribution), death benefits and work accident – will not begin until July 1, 2015 and consequently, they are at an earlier stage of development. A roadmap to guide the implementation is expected to be issued shortly. Active discussion on the design and financing of the SJSN employment programs, the rules for investment of pension plan assets, and the rules for asset-liability management of the pension program have also begun. …including Based on the BPJS law, there will be only two administrators: one for health and one for the institutional employment programs. The two BPJS will be not-for-profit public legal entities operated in transformation the best interest of all participants. Both PT Askes and PT Jamsostek – the BPJS Health and BPJS Employment, respectively – are actively working on their transformations, with a focus on those activities that must be completed by December 31, 2013. These include the impending shutdown of both companies, the calculation of plan liabilities, the transfer of assets to the new BPJS and to the appropriate social insurance funds, and the starting financial statements for BPJS Health and BPJS Employment. There is also on-going discussion about the governance structure, internal audit procedures, oversight and supervision of the two new entities. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 35 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly b. Coverage, cost and fiscal sustainability considerations Universal coverage The national social security system is a bold effort to transform Indonesia’s social protection promotes labor system. One of the main goals is to achieve universal coverage – that is, to cover all mobility and stabilizes Indonesians in the new system regardless of whether they work in the formal or informal program financing sector. With the new programs beginning in 2014 and 2015, the government plans to reach universal coverage by 2019. International experience, however, suggests that it will likely take a decade or more to expand coverage to the entire population. For example, in Japan and Korea it took more than 20 years to achieve full coverage. Nonetheless, if it is done well, everyone will participate and receive benefits from the programs and the costs of the programs will be equitably shared to achieve social solidarity. Universal coverage will also allow workers to change jobs without losing coverage, and will create a more dynamic labor market. A successful system The nationwide SJSN programs will differ in both design and coverage from the existing will require attractive programs and will include a new defined benefit pension program. There are two benefits at a fair and fundamental ways to think about designing the SJSN programs. The first method – the affordable price social policy perspective – is to determine the desired level of benefits and then calculate the costs and required contribution rates. The second method is to start by determining the amount that employers, labor and the government are willing and able to contribute and then work backward to determine the affordable level of benefits. In practice, it is best to use a combination of both methods to produce optimal results. The goal is to find a combination of benefits and contributions that are both meaningful and affordable even in the face of adverse experience. The process of defining benefits and setting contribution rates for the SJSN programs will need to take into account different characteristics, needs, and ability and willingness to pay between formal and informal sector workers. Programs must be designed with workers’ wants and needs in mind, but at the same time the required contribution rates must be actuarially determined and set at a reasonable level for workers, employers and government. Workers must be able to afford the contributions and the contribution rate must not create an unreasonable burden on employers. In the end, workers and employers should contribute because they want to, not because they are forced to. Reasonable benefit levels and modest contribution rates will also allow the government to pay for the poor without jeopardizing the country’s fiscal position. The SJSN health program provides a good illustration of these challenges. The SJSN law requires a comprehensive medical package and this has been incorporated into the implementing regulations. The contribution rates for the poor, informal sector not poor and the formal sector are still under discussion, as are the methods that will be used to reimburse medical personnel and facilities for their services. Although the new system begins on January 1, 2014, it will take time for the system to be able to fully deliver on its promises. Some of the many challenges facing government include raising members’ awareness of the program and it eligibility conditions and benefits, managing participant expectations, building a network of public and private providers and facilities, and improving the capacity and quality of the medical system. All these activities, as well as population aging will increase the demand for high quality, sophisticated medical services. It will be challenging for the government to provide these comprehensive medical services while keeping costs at a level that participants can afford. Programs must be In this respect, it is important to formulate and implement policies and procedures to ensure fiscally sustainable in the fiscal sustainability of the SJSN social insurance funds and to ensure that the financial the short and long- risks of the social insurance programs are properly managed. Financial analysis, complex term… actuarial calculations and sophisticated computer models are needed to quantify the financial impact of proposed designs and ensure that contributions are sufficient to pay promised benefits. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 36 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly …with sustainability Another reason for caution in setting contribution rates is that the SJSN Law does not allow considerations the net assets from one SJSN social insurance fund to be used to subsidize deficits in applying to each fund another fund. Rather, each fund must have its own contribution rate and be self-sustaining. Although the BPJS and the social insurance funds are not-for-profit, the social insurance funds will require some net asset, set at a sufficient level to cover claim reserves and to cover random fluctuations in claims. Without some net asset, the funds would need to turn to the government for additional funds every time claims were higher than expected. The amount of net asset required will vary by fund, as the risk of adverse claim fluctuations is greater for some funds than others. For example, the risk of higher than expected claims is greater in the health fund than in the death benefit fund. Although not required by law, to the extent possible, within any one fund the contribution rates for the formal sector, informal sector who are not poor and the informal sector poor should be properly calculated so that there are minimal subsidies among the three groups. Otherwise, the groups that are paying too much will resent being forced to subsidize the benefits of the groups that are paying too little. The SJSN pension The SJSN pension program presents several additional challenges because the cost will program poses increase over time as the pension system matures and as the population ages. This program particular challenges must be carefully monitored, managed and adjusted to keep it fiscally sustainable over time. Pension programs have particularly long time horizons. Workers may begin making contributions at age 20, may not retire for another 40 years, and then may receive benefits for another 30 years. Consequently, the time frame for planning, financing and investing is very long. Pension plans take decades to fully mature and are significantly impacted by long- term trends such as population aging. For this reason, pension models often make projections over 75 to 100 years. Especially for pensions, the short-term impact of program introduction or changes is normally very different from the long-term impact. c. Administration, governance and capacity considerations Robust administrative In order to properly administer the social security programs, it is important to ensure systems are needed, everyone receives a unique identification number and that there is no duplication of particularly for the identification numbers. The SJSN and BPJS laws make each BPJS responsible for issuing unique IDs required… unique ID numbers to its members. Since using different ID numbers for the health and employment programs is inefficient, the two BPJS will need to work together to issue a common identification number for use in all five SJSN programs. The unique ID number has two distinct purposes. It will allow individuals to prove their identity when requesting services or receiving payments. And it will be used to track individual salary, service credits and contribution history in the social insurance funds. The unique identification numbers for SJSN members could be the same as the national identification number (Nomor Induk Kependudukan, NIK) or it could be a different number that is mapped to the NIK. Assessment should be done on the adequacy of the NIK and any potential enhancements that could be made to help facilitate its effective use in SJSN program administration. …and for collection of Another key administrative task is to collect and properly credit contributions for all contributions from workers. While contribution collection mechanisms for formal sector workers are already both formal and available today in Jamsostek’s mandatory social insurance programs, there is still widespread informal sector evasion. The current participation rate in Jamsostek’s old age savings program (Jaminan Hari workers… Tua, JHT) is below 30 percent, in large part because Jamsostek lacks enforcement authority. Unlike formal sector workers, there is no effective contribution collection mechanism available for informal sector workers. Consequently, it is crucial to develop an effective contribution collection model for the informal sector now. Otherwise, there will undoubtedly be low informal sector participation. This will have two negative consequences. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 37 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Informal sector workers will not be entitled to benefits from the SJSN programs, and the financial stability of the SJSN system will be undermined. When evasion is widespread, it negatively impacts the financial solvency of the insurance programs, because only the poorer risks will choose to join while the better risks will choose to evade. This is known as adverse- or anti-selection and it can easily threaten the financial stability of the social insurance scheme. …which will need to The Government will need to study a wide range of possible collection mechanisms, be piloted and tested examine other countries’ experiences and pilot test possible options for collecting contributions from both formal and informal sector workers. The choice of contribution collection strategy combined with effective enforcement and proper program design is needed to ensure program stability and continued political support. One important part of any solution will be the maximum use of integrated IT systems to automate administration, reduce errors and control costs. Proper governance and Good governance and oversight of the SJSN system and BPJS operations is critical given the supervision are needed large amounts of money that will flow into the five SJSN social insurance funds and the to ensure system critical role the two BPJS play in the social protection system. The BPJS must be held integrity accountable for properly administering the SJSN programs and performing their assigned responsibilities. Performance benchmarks are needed and there should be a system of checks and balances in place that ensures transparency and accountability so the public will have trust in the system. International accounting standards (accrual accounting) should also be implemented to present a clear picture of the financial status of the BPJS and the social insurance funds that it manages. It is important to have separate accounting for the BPJS and for each of the social insurance funds, as fund assets and liabilities are not BPJS assets and liabilities, and the assets of each of the social insurance funds must be kept separate. The two BPJS must operate the programs in the best interest of participants, and participants' complaints should be promptly heard and addressed. The BPJS Law requires the BPJS to establish a quality control unit to handle complaints and respond within specified time periods. By law, the BPJS will be supervised internally by their Board of Commissioners and by an internal audit department. In addition, they will be supervised externally by the National Social Security Council (Dewan Jaminan Sosial Nasional, DJSN), the new Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, OJK) and the State Financial Audit Board (Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan, BPK). It is important for the specific roles and responsibilities of all these parties to be clearly defined and understood, and these arrangements should be agreed to and documented in writing. Government capacity Risk management and overall capacity building are needed to ensure that the SJSN programs to manage risks is are properly managed. The Ministry of Finance needs the human resources and IT systems needed to protect the to properly monitor the financial status of the SJSN programs and make adjustments to financial integrity of design features and contribution rates to ensure their long-term fiscal sustainability. The the system responsible unit will need to include actuaries, statisticians, mathematicians, demographers and experts in computer modeling to properly gather and manage needed data, maintain financial and actuarial models to project plan costs and periodically adjust contribution rates to maintain long-term solvency of the programs. Personnel in the supervisory organizations must be knowledgeable and ensure there is an effective structure for external supervision and control of BPJS operations, and an effective internal audit department within the BPJS. If this is not done properly, it could result in a large liability for the state budget. This could happen if programs become underfunded and the state budget must make up for any shortfalls. Therefore, it is in the Government’s best interest to develop an effective computer modeling and risk management capability, and effective external supervision. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 38 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly d. Communication is key as part of a lengthy implementation process Proper socialization is Effective communication within the Government and to the public, media and Parliament needed to ensure the are important for program success. If all Indonesians understand the programs and their public understand the benefits, they are more likely to appreciate the program. If they know how to access the benefits and services they are entitled to, know their rights and responsibilities, and know the institutions importance of the responsible for operating the programs, they will have more trust in the system and are more SJSN system likely to participate without being compelled to do so. This will be particularly true for informal sector workers. While their participation in the program is mandatory, it will be harder to enforce payment. The BPJS Law relies on informal workers coming to the nearest BPJS office to pay contributions, making it important to raise their awareness of program benefits. e. Summary: a long journey towards comprehensive social security coverage Implementation is a Ensuring a successful system will require attention to key implementation issues that include complex task and will reaching political consensus among stakeholders; development of a roadmap and monitoring require time and program implementation; developing a national retirement income strategy and assuring the consensus among SJSN programs support that strategy; determining the financing strategy; and building stakeholders to fully financial and actuarial models and government capacity to ensure the fiscal sustainability of implement the SJSN programs. As discussed in this Section, particular attention should be paid to the program design features and the proper calculation of required payroll contributions. Carefully designed and implemented administrative systems and procedures will be needed to issue unique identification numbers, collect contributions, maintain individuals’ accounts, and pay benefits properly and in a timely fashion. All of the above will need to be supported by the required regulations and decrees, and by outreach and awareness building of the program (that is, program “socialization”). The implementation will likely be challenging and take longer than expected to fully achieve the stated goals. However, the new programs, even if they do not fully achieve all their lofty goals, will still be a significant improvement over the current system, and there will be opportunities to further improve the programs and the overall system over time. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 39 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly C. Indonesia 2014 and beyond: A selective look 1. Indonesia: Facing up to the Double Burden of Malnutrition Nutrition problems Household incomes have increased significantly in recent years but, partly due to this pose a significant risk success, Indonesia is faced with multiple nutrition problems of increasing complexity, a topic to Indonesia’s that this Section explores. With a third of children under five stunted (that is, shorter than development… expected for their age), not only is the future capacity of the nation’s workforce compromised, but their propensity for becoming fat and suffering from cardiovascular diseases in later life is also greatly increased. Changing consumption patterns and lifestyles associated with increasing urbanization are exacerbating the situation, such that overnutrition problems are already affecting the majority of adults. Unless action is taken now, not only tackling maternal and child undernutrition but also tackling the overnutrition problems in older children and adults, the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCD) will increase dramatically, undermining Indonesia’s economic progress in coming decades.12 a. The nature and serious consequences of the Double Burden of Malnutrition … including both The Double Burden of Malnutrition13 (DBM) refers to the coexistence of both overnutrition and undernutrition and overnutrition of macronutrients and micronutrients14 across the course undernutrition of life in the same population, community, family or even individual. Of particular concern is 12 This section summarizes findings and policy recommendations from a recent technical assessment of the DBM problem in Indonesia (financed by the Millennium Challenge Corporation with technical inputs from UNICEF), by Roger Shrimpton (International Nutrition Expert) and Claudia Rokx (World Bank), with contributions from the Indonesia Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) working group, and Leslie Elder, Puti Marzoeki, Darren Dorkin Rebekah Pinto, Eko Pambudi and Megha Kapoor (World Bank). Additional technical papers on this topic are available at www.worldbank.org. 13 Shrimpton, R. and Rokx, C. 2012. The Double Burden of Malnutrition: A Review of the Global Evidence. World Bank. Washington. Forthcoming 2013. 14 Macronutrients include carbohydrates, proteins, and fats that provide energy for our body to function. Micronutrients are substances that enable the body to produce enzymes, hormones and other substances essential for proper growth and development, and are only needed in very small amounts. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 40 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly the life course dimension of DBM, or the link between maternal and fetal undernutrition and increased susceptibility to overnutrition and diet-related NCDs later in life. Malnutrition is most Undernutrition and overnutrition are most Indicators Definition commonly assessed by commonly assessed by comparing height Weight is less than expected measuring body and weight with a reference growth pattern, Underweight for age weight and length and provide a measurement of adequacy of Height is less than expected Stunting food intake. Underweight is the most for age common measure of undernutrition, but Weight is less than expected Wasting does not take height into consideration, for height which limits its utility as an indicator. Overweight and Weight is greater than Stunting occurs primarily due to poor obesity expected/desirable for height length growth during the period from conception to two years of age. Wasting is a measure of short-term food adequacy and, unlike stunting, can be reversed. Undernutrition of micronutrients is also common and can contribute to growth failure as well as other body dysfunctions, such as anaemia in cases of iron deficiency and goitre resulting from iodine deficiency. Overnutrition is most commonly measured in terms of overweight and obesity, caused by eating more food than is needed and leading to accumulation of body fat. Obesity is recognized as a disease condition and in adults is commonly measured by the Body Mass Index (BMI) which is weight divided by height squared. Overnutrition is The DBM is a global problem that affects rich and poor countries alike: 25 percent of the increasing at a faster world’s population is overweight, while 17 percent of pre-school children are underweight pace than the decrease and 28.5 percent are stunted. 40 percent of women of reproductive age have anemia and in undernutrition one-third of the global population still suffers from iodine deficiency. Most lower-middle income countries (LMICs) are considered to be affected by the DBM, with overweight increasing faster than underweight is decreasing in most of them. While globally obesity has doubled in the last three decades, it has tripled in LMICs in just two decades. Stunting compromises Stunting has multiple and serious consequences measureable across the course of one’s life. the capacity, as well as The process of stunting, which starts in-utero, also causes damage to the developing brain, the health, of the future with negative effects on the intelligence and school performance of stunted children. It also workforce negatively affects the work performance of stunted adults. This “leading indicator” is recognized as one of the best measures of the quality of human resources of a nation. Furthermore, constrained fetal growth causes “metabolic programming” with extra fat tissue laid down in preparation for a scarce environment in life outside the womb. If stunted children have accelerated weight growth later in childhood, there is an increased risk for obesity and other diet-related NCDs, such as Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). For this reason, the cut-offs for defining overweight and obesity, which are based on the risk of developing CVD, are lower among stunted populations in Asia.15 b. The Double Burden of Malnutrition is a serious and urgent problem in Indonesia DBM is worse in The DBM problem in Indonesia is well established, with both overnutrition and Indonesia than any undernutrition existing to a considerable degree in young children as well as in adults. other ASEAN country Indeed, the DBM situation of Indonesia is one of the worst in ASEAN (Table 8). With a third of children aged under-five years being stunted, Indonesia has higher stunting rates than other poorer countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines, and is on a par with much poorer countries such as Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos PDR. Indonesia also has high wasting rates, being second only to Timor Leste, and higher than other poorer ASEAN countries such as Cambodia, Laos PDR, Vietnam, Papua New Guinea, and the Philippines. But Indonesia also has the highest overweight rates among its young children, worse than Malaysia, for example, which has three times its level of income. 15World Health Organization 2004. Appropriate body-mass index for Asian populations and its implications for policy and intervention strategies. Lancet 363 (9403): 157-63. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 41 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly The problem of adult Although data on maternal Figure 34: A growing proportion of middle-aged Indonesians overnutrition has nutrition is not as are overweight almost doubled in the comprehensive as for child (percentage of overweight and underweight in men and women over 45 years of last two decades nutrition, there is evidence age) that one in five Indonesian 35 1993 1997 2000 2007 women of reproductive age are “gemuk” (overweight 30 and/or obese based on a BMI of greater than 25). The 25 Indonesian Family Life 20 Surveys, representative of 85 percent of the population, 15 indicate that over a fifteen year period, the proportion 10 of thin men and women decreased considerably while 5 the proportion of gemuk men 0 and women nearly doubled underweight overweight underweight overweight (Figure 34). men men women women Source: Indonesian Family Life Surveys; see Straus et al (2011), The financial costs of the Indonesian Family Life Survey Results. Washington: Rand DBM in Indonesia are likely Corporation to be considerable. In terms of lost productivity, the cost of child undernutrition in Asia has conservatively been estimated at 2-3 percent of GDP.16 The cost of treating NCDs in stunted adult populations will be expensive. In South Africa, for example, the cost of treating CVD alone was taking up a quarter of health spending a decade ago. NCDs are already responsible for the majority of deaths worldwide, and are disproportionately high in LMICs, where nearly 80 percent of all NCD deaths occur. The World Economic Forum suggests that globally NCDs will cost more than USD 30 trillion over the next 20 years, representing 48 percent of global GDP in 2010. This will undermine economic growth in LMICs especially unless mitigation measures are taken.17 In Indonesia, DBM is likely to seriously undermine efforts to reduce poverty as well as erode economic growth, thus impeding progress towards achieving the first priorities of the 2010-2014 RPJMN. Table 8: The DBM situation of Indonesia is one of the worst in ASEAN Child Child Child Maternal Women BMI Women GNI per Country Wasting Overweight Stunting anemia <18.5 BMI >25 capita (percent)* (percent)* (percent)* (percent)** (percent)** (percent)* (PPP USD)* Cambodia 10.8 1.9 40.9 57.1 20.3 9.6 2,040 Indonesia 13.3 12.2 36.8 - - 21.4 4,300 Laos 7.0 2.0 44.0 14.5 17.0 2,300 Malaysia - 6.0 17.0 38.3 - - 14,360 Myanmar 7.9 3.0 35.0 - - - - Papua New 4.4 3.4 43.9 - - - 2,390 Philippines 6.9 3.3 32.0 43.9 14.2 33.0 3,930 Thailand 5.0 8.0 16.0 22.0 6.9 47.3 8,240 Timor Leste 19.9 5.8 57.7 37.7 3.1 3,570 Vietnam 4.4 4.6 23.3 32.2 28.3 6.8 2,910 Source: *UNICEF State of the World’s Children Report 2012 and **WHO Nutrition Landscape Information System 16 Horton S. 1999. Opportunities for investments in nutrition in low-income Asia. Asian Development Review 17(1-2(:246-273. See also: Food and Agriculture Organization 2013. The State of Food and Agriculture. Rome. 17 Bloom, D.E., Cafiero, E.T., Jané-Llopis, E., Abrahams-Gessel, S., Bloom, L.R., Fathima, S., Feigl, A.B., Gaziano, T., Mowafi, M., Pandya, A., Prettner, K., Rosenberg, L., Seligman, B., Stein, A.Z., & Weinstein, C. 2011. World Economic Forum. The Global Economic Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases. Geneva. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 42 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly The poor are more However, despite the evidence showing that obesity is on the rise, misperceptions of the affected by overweight issue tend to cloud its urgency. For example, in many circles, it is assumed that obesity is and obesity than the exclusively a problem of the rich. But this is not the case in Indonesia. The Basic Health rich Survey (Riskesdas) of 2010 showed that although overweight/obesity increased with income, peaking at 32 percent in the upper wealth quintile, the lower wealth quintiles were also affected (about 20 percent). The greatest number of overweight and obese individuals is found in the poorer segments of the population, and conditioned by increasing obesogenic (i.e., obesity-causing) urban environments. The poorest adults in these environments, who are also the most stunted, are particularly vulnerable. Indonesians may be Another misperception concerns the physical nature of obesity, as this often calls to mind unhealthy even if they someone who appears “fat.” Overweight and obesity, however, is a hidden problem in do not appear to be Indonesia. Even those that do not appear “fat” may be carrying significant amounts of “fat” hidden fat in their bodies. This is in part a result of constrained growth in the first 1,000 days, followed by the accelerated growth during childhood perpetuated by urban lifestyles. Further, for Indonesians, the health risks associated with having excess body fat – whether visible or not - begin at a BMI lower than that in other parts of Asia, and certainly lower than the international standard.18 That this excess fat is not always physically evident contributes to an underestimation of the urgency of the problem in an increasingly inactive and urbanizing population. c. Understanding the causes of DBM in Indonesia The causes of DBM While the causes of DBM across the course of one’s life are complex, a useful way to analyze are divided into four DBM in Indonesia is to adopt the system map of obesity developed by the Foresight Project thematic areas in the UK. This map groups more than 100 variables into four thematic areas: health and biological environment; economic and food environment; physical and built environment; and socio-cultural environment. Health and biological Indonesia is well on its way in its demographic transition. Deaths due to communicable environment: NCDs diseases have been reduced, most likely due to Indonesia’s health policies in the 1980s and are already the leading 1990s that increased expenditures and led to better distribution of health facilities cause of death throughout the country. At the same time, life expectancy has improved. Today, NCDs account for the majority of disability and mortality in Indonesia. CVD is the leading cause of death, accounting for 30 percent of all NCD deaths, followed by cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes. The health system has The health infrastructure, however, is still deficient in many ways. Sanitation coverage has little capacity to not proceeded apace, and gastrointestinal parasites are very common. The health system is support nutritional not well-equipped to implement nutrition interventions, due in part to health workers’ lack programs of training in nutrition and a perception that stunting and obesity/overweight are not significant problems, or linked to NCDs. Few health facilities measure nutritional status routinely and many lack the equipment to do so. Indonesia’s strong commitment to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) for its population, however, combined with launching its Scaling Up Nutrition initiative, represent excellent opportunities to improve nutrition. High blood pressure Survey data shows elevated levels of the underlying risk factors that contribute to CVDs. and diabetes are highly The 2007 Riskesdas survey found one in ten men and two in ten women over 45 years had prevalent in adults high cholesterol levels. Diabetes was affecting 6 percent of the adult population, and 19 percent were pre-diabetic. The Indonesia Family Life Surveys detected a high prevalence of hypertension, which is worse in women and increases with age, such that about half of adults over 45 are affected (Figure 35). Two-thirds of respondents did not know they have a problem, however, and 90 percent were not getting treatment. 18Soegondo S. 2005. Atherogenic dyslipidaemia and the metabolic syndrome. Acta Med Indonesia 37(3): 177-183; and WHO 2004. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 43 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 35: Hypertension is a significant problem amongst Figure 36: …and a high proportion of Indonesians do not Indonesian adults… get enough physical exercise (hyper-tensive in age category, percent) (insufficient physical activity in age category, percent) 80 90 70 80 men women 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 10-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Source: 2007 Indonesia Family Life Surveys Source: 2007 Riskesdas Survey The economic and Indonesia’s increase in national wealth has been accompanied by declines in poverty and an food environment has increase in food availability as energy per capita, mostly coming from the doubling of fat seen decreasing consumption. In the past four decades, rice availability has remained mostly stable, while poverty and increasing energy coming from meat and fish doubled, from milk tripled, and from wheat increased westernization of the seven-fold. Simultaneously, the increased global trading of foods has led to greater amounts diet of processed food imports in LMICs, which are distributed mainly through growing supermarket chains and multinational fast-food companies. Urban areas are particularly affected by these new commercial outlets. Poor infant feeding A growing body of evidence suggests that food consumption patterns during early life affect practices are the health and development across the rest of one’s life. Unfortunately, infant and young contributing to both child feeding practices in Indonesia are far from adequate and contribute both to under and over undernutrition early in life as well as to an increased risk for overnutrition later in life. nutrition Harmful patterns include declining rates of exclusive breastfeeding and the early introduction of complementary foods. In 2010, only 15 percent of babies were breastfed exclusively for 6 months – half of the 32 percent that was reported in 2007 and much less than the 40 percent, which was reported in 2002. Breast milk substitutes are still commonly promoted in health care facilities to both health care professionals and mothers. Family food Food consumption patterns later in the life course are difficult to evaluate, but available data consumption has suggests that food intake has increased, particularly from meat, fish, eggs, and prepared increased more in foods. Vegetable and fruit consumption, on the other hand, has remained stable and low. quantity than in quality Indonesia is the second largest consumer of instant noodles globally, with nearly 13.7 billion packs consumed in 2008 and, consequently, daily wheat flour consumption rose to 52g per person in 2008, making Indonesia one of the top five wheat importing countries globally. Increased It is likely that the increased consumption of ultra-processed foods is contributing to consumption of Indonesia’s obesity problem as it is around the world. Ultra-processed foods are energy processed foods is dense and full of refined grains, sugars and fats. As such, they are well recognized by likely contributing to consumers as the lowest purchase price option. Provoking prolonged and high glucose levels overnutrition in the blood after ingestion, they contribute to the gradual accumulation of extra body fat. The most consumed ultra-processed food in Indonesia is instant noodles which are made from wheat flour and fried in palm oil. The environment is An assessment of Indonesia’s physical environment reveals an urban environment that is increasingly obesity- unfriendly to pedestrian physical activity. With limited access to healthy foods in many urban causing environments, those traveling to and from school and work have few options other than J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 44 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly ready-made foods outside of their homes. At present, and particularly given the low public awareness of the DBM problem, schools are not yet a venue for preventing child obesity. Urban planning and local government have an important role to play in increasing options for pedestrian physical activity as the majority of the population does not get enough exercise to help prevent CVD (Figure 36). Riskesdas survey data from 2007 show school- aged children are one of the most inactive age groups. The socio-cultural Indonesia continues to retain its traditional cultures even while immersing itself in all forms environment is also of modern media. Traditional customs influence maternal and early child undernutrition, and increasingly obesity- social norms dictate that many women get married at young age: 25 percent of all women of causing reproductive age are married before age 18, and 10 percent before age 16. The age of the mother at first birth is a key correlate of child health outcomes, where the risks of stunting, diarrhoea, and anaemia diminish significantly as a woman delays her first birth through to age 27-29 years, regardless of socioeconomic status.19 At the same time, children watch around 4 hours of television a day, and the advertising of processed food dominates the media, with advertisements targeted toward children. The majority of parents report that their purchases are influenced by their children’s choice more than advertisements, suggesting the need to curb these external influences, as recommended by the World Health Assembly. d. Addressing DBM in Indonesia An overarching policy The actions needed to strengthen the response to nutrition issues are well-established and framework is needed recognized under the global Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) Movement, which Indonesia joined in September 2012 alongside 39 other countries. Indonesia also plays a strong role in the Movement’s Lead Group. Focusing on maternal and child undernutrition, the Government is progressing on its SUN policy framework and planning guidelines. Indonesia should build on the SUN framework as it considers how to further enhance its responses to the DBM problem across the life course. An overarching DBM policy framework is needed to increase coordination among government ministries in four policy pillars: food security, food safety, healthy lifestyles, and nutrition. Most of these focus areas are included in the SUN platform established under the Coordinating Minster of Peoples Welfare. Some of these policies and strategies are already contemplated in the National Action Plan for Food and Nutrition, 2011-2015, developed by the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas). As the plan for 2016-2020 is developed, the other elements in the framework should also be considered. Existing interventions Many of the necessary interventions are already being implemented in Indonesia and the need to be scaled up, firm commitments underpinning Indonesia’s plans for universal health care and the SUN while addressing gaps Movement are laying the groundwork for future improvements in nutrition. But while there has been progress in covering some areas, gaps remain. For example, implementation of direct interventions during early life, especially breastfeeding, still need to be improved. Similarly, despite advances through food fortification with micronutrients, maternal anemia also needs greater attention. Finally, social welfare programs have helped ensure food security among the poorest of the poor, but a greater emphasis is needed on food quality as well as quantity. Schools are critically important venues for enabling healthy lifestyles that will help mitigate the effects of DBM, but have not yet been utilized for this purpose. Health professionals need better training in nutrition, so that stunting is perceived as an issue, and that overweight and obesity are recognized as problems to be prevented, not just treated. 19Finlay JE, Ozaltin E, Canning D. 2011. The association of maternal age with infant mortality, child anthropometric failure, diarrhoea and anaemia for first births: evidence from 55 low-and middle- income-countries. BMJ Open 2: e000226. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 45 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2. Bureaucracy reform in Indonesia: progress and pitfalls Indonesia has Indonesia’s civil service is one of the largest in the world, with around 4.7 million civil embarked on an servants. The quality of services delivered, however, has not consistently improved with the ambitious bureaucratic size of the civil service. To address this challenge, the Government of Indonesia has reform process that embarked on a radical reform process known as bureaucracy reform (BR), which was began in 2006 introduced in 2006 starting with the Ministry of Finance (MOF). The objectives of the reform are to streamline business processes, improve the policies and practices of human resource management and reduce corruption in the Ministry of Finance. Since then, the BR agenda has been rolled out across ministries and other government agencies. As of 2012, around 56 ministries and agencies were involved in BR, which will extend to another 22 in 2013 and 2014. A key feature of the One of the key features of this reform initiative, as designed by MOF, was the introduction reform is the of an extra BR allowance tied to job type. This is different from the basic salaries and introduction of an allowances that are tied to rank and seniority. An evaluation of current jobs was carried out extra allowances based and new job descriptions were then developed, determining the complexity, scope and on job analyses and accountability of jobs. Based on this evaluation, allowances of different sizes were grading introduced for each job type. This Section will review the BR allowance initiative and the evidence on the impact of the allowances on performance. It will also discuss current bureaucracy reform priorities, particularly the importance of restructuring and right-sizing. a. Impact of bureaucracy reform BR allowances have While BR allowances have increased wage bills in participating institutions, independent led to improvements in evaluations – such as the annual Public Service Integrity Survey issued by Indonesia’s the modernization of Corruption Eradication Committee (Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi, or KPK) – have indicated human resource that BR has had positive impacts in MOF. These positive changes include improved practices... recruitment processes, which ensure that recruits are adequately qualified. BR also supported the establishment of Assessment Centers used to assess current employees’ competencies and potential for promotion. Performance evaluations of units and individuals has also improved using approaches such as the Balanced Scorecard methodology. In addition, training has become more technically focused. These modernized human resource practices imply that BR is supporting the professionalization of civil servants in key institutions. …as indicated by a These positive outcomes are confirmed in a pay and performance survey that was recently recent pay and undertaken by the Ministry of Administrative and Bureaucracy Reform (MenPAN-RB) and performance survey the World Bank. The survey was conducted in 2012 and covered more than 4,000 Jakarta- based civil servants, in lower ranks20, drawn from fourteen government ministries and agencies. In the survey, ministries and agencies were divided into four categories: (1) those that have received BR allowances; (2) those that were approved but had not yet received BR allowances; (3) those that had applied to participate in the BR program; and, (4) those that had not applied to participate in the BR program. The aim of the survey was to provide an assessment of progress to date in Bureaucracy Reform. … indicating that The survey indicates that staff in ministries and agencies that have undertaken bureaucracy participating reform are more likely to agree that their colleagues contribute more than expected (Table institutions have better 9). Promotion and regulatory decisions in participating institutions appear significantly less recruitment and likely to be unpredictable and the product of favoritism. In addition, surveyed staff believe promotion systems that institutions that have undergone BR are better at identifying the best candidates for jobs and can recruit high quality staff more easily. 20Lower ranks, in this context, refers to civil servants that are categorized as Echelon IVA, IIID and IIIA. Echelon 4 staff have worked in the civil service for approximately 8 years, while Echelon III staff have worked in the civil service for approximately 8-13 years. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 46 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly Table 9: There is survey evidence of better HR performance amongst bureaucracy reform-participating institutions Others Recruitment Promotions met Agency easily contribute more identifies the formal recruits quality than is expected best candidates qualifications staff of them for the job BR reform status Proportion of respondents who agreed or strongly agreed percent Have received BR allowance 64 91 88 77 BR allowance approved, not received 48 80 81 61 Applied for BR allowance 42 61 63 45 Have not applied for BR allowance 41 62 66 52 Source: Pay Reform in the Indonesian Civil Service: Key Issues and Options for Reform (Hasnain, et.al., 2013) b. Sustainability of bureaucracy reform The Government of Bureaucracy Reform has extended beyond the initial reform that was started in the MOF. Indonesia has made The reform is extending downwards to field offices such as those of the Directorate General considerable progress of Taxes and the Directorate General of Treasury. In addition, a report from the National in bureaucratic Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) and MenPAN-RB showed that the share of reform… central ministries and agencies that were considered accountable increased from 83 percent in 2011 to 95 percent in 2012.21 Furthermore, the share of central agencies that received a satisfactory “reasonable without exception” opinion on their financial reports increased from 63 percent in 2011 to 77 percent in 2012. … but continued Despite significant progress in reforming the bureaucracy, further efforts are needed to efforts are needed to improve productivity while ensuring that spending on civil service pay remains sustainable. improve productivity This is especially crucial given the rollout of BR to the national level since 2008, and to the and ensure the sub-national level in 2013. In addition, it will be important to maintain the sustainability of sustainability of civil reforms. To achieve these goals, bureaucracy reforms should continue to be scaled up in service pay… Indonesia, building on the current BR implementation at the institutional level, and also encompassing the modernization of national policies. In particular, in addition to the Personnel Expenditure Management Reform and Pay and Grading Reform22, there are three other priority areas for reform that the Government of Indonesia could consider. .. including First, further improvements in policies regarding control, organizational design, staffing and organizational right-sizing may be effective. Limited flexibility in current national regulations and vetting modernizing and processes limit the scope for restructuring and reform. Reforming establishment control, right-sizing… modernizing organizational structures, and adopting “right-sizing” policies can help in making personnel budgets part of sub-program or activity budgets. It would also help in making budget managers responsible for staffing and accountable for personnel expenditures. This would allow for better control of the size and cost of the civil service, and for the flexibility required to improve efficiency and get better value for money. …reform of the Second, there could be sizeable benefits from reform of the national regulatory framework national regulatory and of the central institutional set-up for civil service policy-making, regulation and framework management. These reforms could help increase flexibility at the institutional level while modernizing and strengthening the capacity for relevant central civil service policy-making. At the same time, it would help to move the responsibility for implementation of civil service policies and regulations to the employing institutions. Ultimately, central agencies (MenPAN-RB, BKN) should supply policies, provide guidance and monitor implementation; implementation, however, should be the responsibility of the respective employers. 21 Based on findings from the Government Performance Accountability Reports (Laporan Akuntabilitas Kinerja Instansi Pemerintah, or LAKIP) 22 Highlighted in the October 2012 edition of the World Bank’s Indonesia Economic Quarterly. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 47 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and reform of the A third priority area is reform of the civil service pension and endowment savings program civil service pension (Tabungan Hari Tua, THT).23 The goal in this area would be to move current pension policies and endowment to a modernized, defined benefit pay-as-you-go system. Such a reform process would need savings programs to provide for fairness and equity based on thorough analyses and with appropriate transitional arrangements. Restructuring and Restructuring and right-sizing initiatives are becoming a priority for the leading authority for right-sizing are bureaucracy reform, MenPAN-RB, until the end of the current administration. MenPAN-RB priorities for the has requested sixteen ministries and government institutions to conduct internal reviews in Government in the order to streamline their current organizational structures. All the selected ministries and near term government agencies will submit their restructuring/right-sizing plans by September 2013 as instructed by the Vice President. In this regard, MenPAN-RB is expecting to see how ministries and agencies are able to reduce the number of Echelon I and II structures within their organization.24 Turning to the longer-term reform agenda, MenPAN-RB plans to issue a white book on the new organizational structure of the Government, along with the number of ministries and agencies, for the next administration. c. Restructuring and rightsizing in the Government of Indonesia Restructuring Restructuring in Indonesian agencies faces specific regulatory and operational constraints. government agencies The current civil service regulatory framework, based on Law 8/1974 (amended by Law faces regulatory and 43/1999), was a codification of the New Order regime’s concept of the Indonesian civil operational constraints service. This is based on a centralistic, highly detailed approach, which is inspired by military practices that gave little flexibility for line ministries and agencies. The guiding principle could be characterized as “one size fits all.” Many agencies suffer Within this system, civil service organizational structures and staff establishments are based from fragmentation of on symmetric rather than operational considerations. This places a focus on balanced tasks and decision numbers of units and sub-units and a certain number of positions at each level, rather than making, as well as on what is needed operationally. As a result, many government agencies suffer from overstaffing and fragmentation of tasks as well as of decision-making powers, since these are distributed redundancy among a large number of pre-defined sub-units. Another result of the current regulations is overstaffing in most institutions, implying both quantitative (too many units and sub-units and too many positions) and qualitative (unqualified position holders) redundancies. The need for “right- In addition to the restructuring imperative, there are two other key drivers for right-sizing. sizing” is driven by Firstly, the BR allowance will have significant fiscal implications. Spending on personnel has affording and retaining grown more rapidly than most other public spending categories, driven by the Government’s staff needed for wage bill and the lack of clear and transparent productivity benchmarks, along with the enhanced service introduction of BR allowances.25 This problem could be partly assuaged by a reduction in delivery staffing levels. Secondly, there are significant numbers of poor performers in the civil service who lack the knowledge, skills and abilities to deliver the enhanced service delivery that BR is working towards. For these individuals, right-sizing could offer a socially and politically acceptable exit strategy. … which requires Successful right-sizing requires efficient and effective processes that help in the transition defining the from the existing “as is” structure to the desired “to be” structure (i.e., the “right size”). organization, removing These include three basic processes: define the new organization structure, including jobs staff and appointing and staffing levels; remove staff who do not have a place within the new structure; and new staff appoint staff and new joiners to positions in the new structure. 23 Indonesia’s civil service pension program and endowment savings program (Tunjangan Hari Tua, THT) are stand-alone retirement programs, providing benefits solely to civil servants and distinct from retirement income program covering other segments of the labor force. The pension and THT programs are sponsored by the government and administered by PT Taspen, a State-Owned Enterprise dedicated to this sole purpose. 24 See “Right-sizing in the Indonesian Civil Service: Opportunities and Constraints”, which provides a comparative analysis of the topic. 25 For more on this topic, see the October 2012 edition of the IEQ. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 48 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly d. Streamlining government agencies Streamlining of There are a number of legal and regulatory “windows” that could provide severance options government is for surplus staff, that is, those who do not have a place within the new organizational possible, especially structures of government agencies. The basic civil service law (Art 23, Law No. 43/1999) through retirement… permits termination due to “streamlining of government” – but there appears to be reluctance to use this provision, and some uncertainty about how it would be applied in practice as implementing regulations are still missing. A more tractable option is likely to be retirement – either at the normal retirement age of 56 years, or using the provisions for early retirement at 50 years of age, plus 20 years of service (Pensions Law No. 11/1969). …but a reliance on There are a number of constraints to successful and cost-effective severance of surplus staff. early retirement will Reliance on early retirement will impose substantial additional burdens on the civil service burden civil service pension scheme, which itself should be undergoing a fundamental reform. While the future pensions pension costs of regular retirement at 56 or 60 years should already be factored into pension reform models, significant additional early retirements at 50 years (which is currently rare) are not. While financing this additional investment raises a challenge, it is important to note that the expense is a one-off increase in pension liabilities, not a higher expense trajectory. There is a need to With no guidance from MenPAN-RB on the development of severance programs, there is a develop government- risk that institution-specific schemes will proliferate, with different terms and conditions. For wide standards on political and equity reasons it would be reasonable for civil servants to expect at least as severance good a severance deal as the previous best on offer – hence a costly “leveling up” dynamic is likely to occur in the absence of a government-wide standard. Ministry-level schemes may also fall prey to moral hazard, as the programs’ designers will be closer to their beneficiaries and may be tempted to choose more expensive packages (“golden handshakes”), rather than allowing aged-based retirement to deliver results more cheaply. ‘Revolving door’ Despite a detailed and inflexible regulatory framework for determining organizational problems can be structures and for workforce planning, Indonesia’s civil service lacks effective controls to avoided by introducing prevent a “revolving door” problem. With its increased focus on the quality of spending, the incentives for reduced Government is giving increasing attention to the effectiveness of its operations and whether headcounts these are being conducted at least cost. The focus of spending reviews will vary but they may examine whether line ministries have the right number and mix of staff to perform their operations - with right-sizing a possible option. Unless there are rigorous headcount controls – ideally with a position-based personnel management system which integrates structural considerations, special functions and staff – it is highly likely that the “revolving door” will undermine severance efforts.. e. Appointing staff to new structures Internationally, the Internationally, the trend is towards more open, merit-based appointment and promotion trend is towards more systems, but this is still subject to significant limitations in Indonesia. Agencies have a high open, merit-based degree of delegated authority to fill posts using their own staff. This is subject to restrictions, appointment and however, which limit certain positions to certain ranks,26 potentially preventing the best promotion systems person from being hired for the job.27 In fact, the civil service operates as a closed system, with external recruitment permitted only at entry levels. While lateral entry from outside the civil service to the higher grades is not permitted (Civil Service Law No. 43/1999 article 12), transfers between agencies are possible, though the system for doing so is opaque. As a result, there is no internal market for recruitment and transfers within the civil service. Such a market would enable appropriately qualified and skilled civil servants to respond to the incentives created by the differential performance allowances now in place, or being put in place, across government agencies. 26For example, Echelon II posts can only be filled by an individual of rank 4B or above 27Refer to Government Regulation (PP) No. 100/2000 on the Appointment of Civil Servants to Structural Position as further detailed in the Head of BKN Regulation No. 13/2002. J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 49 Adjusting to pressures Indonesia Economic Quarterly f. Constraints and reform options for right-sizing Restructuring and As the above discussion makes clear, a number of specific legal, regulatory and capacity right-sizing efforts face constraints impede the efficient implementation of key right-sizing processes in the legal, regulatory and Indonesian civil service. These argue for the need for further reforms to build on the capacity constraints significant progress, such as the introduction of job-specific pay allowances, already made through bureaucracy reform initiatives in Indonesia. Some of the key elements are summarized in Table 10, along with high-level suggestions for reforms. Continued progress in this area will depend, in part, on the provisions of the new civil service law, which is currently being prepared. Table 10: Selected constraints to restructuring and right-sizing and high level reform options Constraint Reform options Expand BR Guidelines to include clear focus on rationales and Agencies lack clear direction on purpose of methodologies to be followed; expand the role of BPK to review and advise restructuring and associated processes Agencies on value for money organizational structures Agencies lack authority to determine own Replace prescriptive central control over structures with good practice structures and jobs guidelines, combined with appropriate fiscal controls Approval of line ministries’ and agencies’ Strengthen capacity of MenPAN-RB HR to approve structures and job restructuring proposals and job requirements requirements rapidly, and introduce a single combined approval process, by HR can be slow and uncertain requiring approvals only for quality and efficiency assurance Weak incentives and systems for Agencies to Introduce fiscal incentives such that Agencies retain a share of wage bill develop and maintain efficient structures; risk savings; develop position-based personnel management and control of “revolving doors” systems to avoid “over-hiring” and inefficient rehiring Lack of guidance on severance options and Develop best-practice guidelines for Agencies on severance of surplus staff procedures Unclear rules on compulsory termination of civil Politically sensitive and awaiting clarification under the new Civil Service Law servants when needed Early retirement provisions of pensions scheme Better co-ordination of pensions reform, pay reform and right-sizing design may be unsuitable for right-sizing Prohibition of lateral entry limits access to high New law should address lateral entry restriction; consider a web-based caliber staff from outside civil service internal job market across the civil service to improve job matching Source: Extracted from Pay Reform in the Indonesian Civil Service: Key Issues and Options for Reform (Hasnain, et.al., 2013) J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 50 APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure 1: Quarterly and annual GDP growth Appendix Figure 2: Contributions to GDP expenditures (real GDP growth, percent) (contribution to quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth, percent) Private cons. Gov cons. Investment 4 8.0 Yoy (RHS) Net Exports Discrepancy GDP 4 3 6.0 QoQ seas. adjust Average 2 (LHS) (LHS)* 2 4.0 0 1 2.0 -2 0 0.0 -4 Mar-06 Dec-07 Sep-09 Jun-11 Mar-13 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Note: *Average QoQ growth between Q1 2003 – Q1 2013 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank seasonal adjustment Appendix Figure 3: Contributions to GDP production Appendix Figure 4: Motor cycle and motor vehicle sales (contribution to quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth, (monthly sales, 000 units) percent) Agriculture Mining and Const 900 130 Manufacture Comm and Trans. Trade, Hotel, & Rest. Other (incl services) 2 Motor cycles (LHS) 110 700 90 1 500 70 0 Motor vehicles (RHS) 300 50 -1 100 30 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC Appendix Figure 5: Consumer indicators Appendix Figure 6: Industrial production indicators (index) (3 month average, yoy growth, percent) 160 15 30 Manufacturing BI Retail sales index production index 140 10 (LHS) 22 BI Consumer 120 Survey Index 5 14 100 0 6 -5 Cement sales -2 80 (RHS) 60 -10 -10 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: BI Source: CEIC Appendix Figure 7: Real trade flows Appendix Figure 8: Balance of payments (quarter-on-quarter real growth, percent) (USD billion) 20 Capital and financial Current account Errors and omissions Overall BoP inflows 15 Imports 10 10 0 5 0 -10 Exports -5 -20 -10 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Source: BPS Source: BI Appendix Figure 9: Goods exports Appendix Figure 10: Goods imports (USD billion) (USD billion) 20 20 Total Imports Total Exports 16 16 12 12 Intermediate 8 8 Manufacturing Agriculture & forestry Oil & gas Capital 4 4 Consumer Oil & gas Mining & minerals 0 0 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Source: BPS Source: BI; CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Appendix Figure 11: Reserves and portfolio capital inflows Appendix Figure 12: Inflation and monetary policy (USD billion) (month-on-month and yoy growth, percent) 3 12 150 5.0 Headline inflation, YoY (RHS) Reserves (LHS) 2 Core inflation, YoY (RHS) 8 125 2.5 BI policy rate (RHS) 100 0.0 1 4 75 -2.5 0 0 50 -5.0 Non-resident portfolio Headline inflation MoM (LHS) inflows, (RHS): Equities SUN SBI 25 -7.5 -1 -4 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Source: BI; CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 52 Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI Appendix Figure 14: Inflation comparison across countries (percentage point contributions to monthly growth) (yoy, May 2013) Core Administered Volatile Headline Indonesia 1.8 Thailand Singapore* 1.2 China Philippines* 0.6 USA Korea* 0.0 Malaysia* Japan* -0.6 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations *April is latest available month Source: National statistical agencies via CEIC; BPS Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice prices Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate (percent LHS, wholesale price, in IDR per kg RHS) (percent) 100 10,000 60 Unemployment rate, LHS 20 Formal employment rate, LHS Percentage spread (LHS) 45 Poverty rate 15 50 7,000 RHS 30 10 0 4,000 Domestic rice, IR-III 15 5 Vietnamese rice 25% broken (RHS) (RHS) -50 1,000 0 0 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: PIBC; FAO; World Bank Source: BPS Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices Appendix Figure 18: Dollar index and Rupiah exchange rate (daily index January 2009=100) (daily index, LHS and levels IDR/USD, RHS) 400 120 8,000 350 SET IDR/USD (RHS) JCI 110 9,000 300 250 IDR Appreciation BSE 100 10,000 200 SGX Dollar Index 150 (LHS) 90 11,000 100 Shanghai 50 80 12,000 Mar-09 Aug-10 Jan-12 Jun-13 Mar-09 Aug-10 Jan-12 Jun-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 53 Appendix Figure 19: 5-year local currency government bond Appendix Figure 20: Sovereign USD Bond EMBI spreads yields (daily, basis points) (daily, percent) 12 550 120 475 Indonesia spreads less overall EMBIG 60 9 Index spreads (RHS) 400 0 Indonesia 6 Philippines 325 -60 Malaysia 250 -120 3 Thailand 175 -180 United States Indonesia EMBIG bond spreads (LHS) 0 100 -240 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-09 Oct-10 Feb-12 Jun-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: JP Morgan; World Bank staff calculations Appendix Figure 21: International commercial bank lending Appendix Figure 22: Banking sector indicators (monthly, index January 2009=100) (monthly, percent) 220 100 10 Indonesia India 200 Loan Deposit 80 Ratio (LHS) 8 180 Singapore 160 Malaysia 60 6 Non-Performing Return on Assets 140 Loans (RHS) 40 Ratio (RHS) 4 Thailand 120 20 2 100 United States Capital Adequacy Ratio (LHS) 80 0 0 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI Appendix Figure 23: Government debt Appendix Figure 24: External debt (percent of GDP; USD billion) (percent of GDP; USD billion) 60 300 60 300 Government debt ratio to GDP External debt ratio to GDP (LHS) (LHS) 40 200 40 200 20 100 20 100 0 0 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 External debt, RHS March Private external debt, RHS March Domestic debt, RHS Public external debt, RHS Source: MoF; BI; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 54 Appendix Table 1: Budget outcomes and projections (IDR trillion) 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 revised Actual Actual Actual Actual Budget Budget (unaudited) A. State revenue and grants 849 995 1,211 1,336 1,530 1,502 1. Tax revenue 620 723 874 980 1,193 1,148 2. Non-tax revenue 227 269 331 352 332 349 B. Expenditure 937 1,042 1,295 1,482 1,683 1,726 1. Central government 629 697 884 1,001 1,154 1,197 2. Transfers to the 309 345 411 480 529 529 regions C. Primary balance 5 42 9 -46 -40 -112 D. SURPLUS / DEFICIT -89 -47 -84 -146 -153 -224 (percent of GDP) -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 -1.7 -2.4 Source: MoF Appendix Table 2: Balance of Payments (USD billion) 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Balance of Payments 30.3 11.9 0.2 -4.0 -3.7 -1.0 -2.8 0.8 3.2 -6.6 Percent of GDP 4.3 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Current Account 5.1 1.7 -24.1 0.8 -2.3 -3.1 -8.0 -5.3 -7.6 -5.3 Percent of GDP 0.7 0.2 -2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Trade Balance 21.3 24.2 -2.2 7.1 3.5 1.7 -2.1 0.7 -2.5 -0.7 Net Income & Current Transfers -16.2 -22.5 -21.9 -6.4 -5.8 -4.8 -5.9 -6.0 -5.1 -4.6 Capital & Financial Accounts 26.6 13.6 24.9 -3.1 0.2 2.1 5.1 5.9 11.9 -1.4 Percent of GDP 3.8 1.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Direct Investment 11.1 11.5 14.3 2.1 3.1 1.6 3.8 4.5 4.5 3.4 Portfolio Investment 13.2 3.8 9.2 -4.6 0.2 2.6 3.9 2.5 0.2 2.9 Other Investment 2.3 -1.8 1.4 -0.7 -3.2 -2.1 -2.5 -1.2 7.2 -7.7 Errors & Omissions -1.5 -3.4 -0.7 -1.6 -1.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 -1.0 0.0 Foreign Reserves* 96.2 110.1 112.8 114.5 110.1 110.5 106.5 110.2 112.8 104.8 Note: * Reserves at end-period Source: BI; BPS J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 55 Appendix Table 3: Indonesia’s historical macroeconomic indicators at a glance 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 National Accounts (% change) Real GDP 9.0 8.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 Real investment 25.3 22.6 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.8 9.8 Real consumption 23.2 21.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 Private 23.9 22.7 3.7 0.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 Government 18.8 14.7 14.2 6.6 0.3 3.2 1.2 Real exports, GNFS 22.5 18.0 30.6 16.6 15.3 13.6 2.0 Real imports, GNFS 30.2 29.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 13.3 6.6 Investment (% GDP) 28 28 20 24 32 32 33 Gross domestic savings (% GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nominal GDP (USD billion) 114 202 165 286 709 846 875 GDP per capita (USD) 636 1035 804 1,300 2,984 3,498 3,563 2 Central Government budget (% GDP) Revenue and grant 18.8 15.2 20.8 17.8 15.5 16.3 16.2 Non-tax revenue 1.0 4.8 9.0 5.3 4.2 4.5 4.3 Tax revenue 17.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 11.3 11.8 11.9 Expenditure 11.8 13.9 22.4 18.4 16.2 17.4 18.0 Consumption .. 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 Capital .. 4.6 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 Interest .. 1.4 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Subsidies .. .. 6.3 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 Budget balance 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 Government debt 41.9 32.3 97.9 47.6 26.0 24.3 24.0 o/w external government debt 41.9 32.3 51.4 22.3 9.5 8.3 7.5 Total external debt (includes private sector) 61.0 61.5 87.1 47.7 28.2 27.5 29.7 3 Balance of Payments (% GDP) Overall balance of payments .. .. .. 0.2 4.3 1.4 0.0 Current account balance -2.6 3.2 4.8 0.1 0.7 0.2 -2.8 Exports GNFS 25.6 26.2 42.8 35.2 24.6 26.2 24.2 Imports GNFS 24.0 26.9 33.9 32.2 21.6 23.3 24.4 Trade balance 1.6 -0.8 8.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 -0.2 Financial account balance .. .. .. 0.0 3.7 1.6 2.8 Net direct investment 1.0 2.2 -2.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.6 Gross official reserves (USD billion) 8.7 14.9 29.4 34.7 96.2 110.1 112.8 3 Monetary (% change) 1 GDP deflator 7.7 9.9 20.4 14.3 8.3 8.1 4.5 Bank Indonesia interest key rate (%) .. .. .. 9.1 6.5 6.6 5.8 Domestic credit .. .. .. 28.7 17.5 24.4 24.2 4 Nominal exchange rate (average, IDR/USD) 1,843 2,249 8,422 9,705 9,090 8,770 9,415 1 Prices (% change) Consumer price Index (eop) 9.9 9.0 9.4 17.1 7.0 3.8 4.3 Consumer price Index (average) 7.7 9.4 3.7 10.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 Poverty basket inflation (average) .. .. .. 10.8 8.7 8.2 6.5 5 Indonesia crude oil price (USD per barrel) .. 17 28 53 79 112 113 Source: 1 BPS and World Bank staff calculation; 2 MoF and World Bank staff calculation (for 1995 is FY 1995/1996, for 2000 covers 9 months); 3 Bank Indonesia; 4 IMF; 5 CEIC J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 56 Appendix Table 4: Indonesia’s development indicators at a glance 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Demographics Population (million) 184 199 213 227 240 242 .. Population growth rate (%) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 .. Urban population (% of total) 30.6 35.6 42.0 45.9 49.9 50.7 .. Dependency ratio (% of working-age population) 67.3 60.8 54.7 51.2 48.3 47.8 .. 2 Labor Force Labor force, total (million) 75 84 98 106 117 117 118 Male 46 54 60 68 72 72 73 Female 29 31 38 38 45 45 45 Agriculture share of employment (%) 55 43 45 44 38 36 35 Industry share of employment (%) 14 19 17 19 19 21 22 Services share of employment (%) 31 38 37 37 42 44 43 Unemployment, total (% of labor force) 2.5 7.0 8.1 11.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 3 Poverty and Income Distribution Median household consumption (IDR 000) .. .. 104 211 374 421 446 National poverty line (IDR 000) .. .. 73 129 212 234 249 Population below national poverty line (million) .. .. 38 35 31 30 29 Poverty (% of population below national poverty line) .. .. 19 16 13 12 12 Urban (% of population below urban poverty line) .. .. 14.6 11.7 9.9 9.2 8.8 Rural (% of population below rural poverty line) .. .. 22.4 20.0 16.6 15.7 15.1 Male .. .. 19.2 15.8 13.3 12.4 12.0 Female .. .. 19.0 16.1 13.4 12.6 11.9 Gini index .. .. 0.30 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.41 Percentage share of consumption: lowest 20% .. .. 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 Percentage share of consumption: highest 20% .. .. 38.6 41.4 43.5 46.5 46.7 4 Public expenditure on social security & welfare (% of GDP) .. .. .. 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 1 Health and Nutrition Physicians (per 1,000 people) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 .. .. Hospital beds (per 1,000 people) 0.7 .. .. .. 0.6 .. .. Child malnutrition (% of children under 5) .. 27 25 24 18 .. .. 5 Under five mortality rate (per 1000 children under 5 year) 98 .. 46 .. 44 .. .. 5 Neonatal mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 27 .. .. .. 19 .. .. 5 Infant mortality (per 1000 live births) 67 .. 35 .. 34 .. .. Maternal mortality ratio (estimate, per 100,000 live births) 600 420 340 270 220 .. .. Life Expectancy at birth (total years) 62 64 66 67 69 69 .. Skilled birth attendance (% of total births) 36 .. 66 .. 82 .. .. Measles vaccination (% of children under 1 year) 0 .. 72 .. 76 .. .. Total health expenditure (% of GDP) .. 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.6 .. .. Public health expenditure (% of GDP) .. 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 .. .. 3 Education Primary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 92 92 92 93 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 48 48 49 49 Secondary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 52 61 60 60 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 50 50 50 49 Tertiary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 9 16 14 15 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 55 53 50 54 Adult literacy rate (%) .. .. .. 91 91 91 92 4 Public spending on education (% of GDP) .. .. .. 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 4 Public spending on education (% of spending) .. .. .. 14.5 19.7 19.8 18.9 1 Water and Sanitation Access to an improved water source (% of population) 70 74 78 80 82 .. .. Urban (% of urban population) 91 91 91 91 92 .. .. Rural (% of rural population) 61 65 68 71 74 .. .. Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 32 38 44 50 54 .. .. Urban (% of urban population) 56 60 64 69 73 .. .. Rural (% of rural population) 21 26 30 35 39 .. .. 1 Others Disaster risk reduction progress score (1-5 scale; 5=best) .. .. .. .. .. 3.3 .. 6 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (%) .. .. 8.0 11.3 18.0 18.2 18.6 Source: 1 World Development Indicators; 2 BPS (Sakernas); 3 BPS and World Bank; 4 MoF and World Bank staff calculation, only includes spending on Raskin, Jamkesmas, BLT, BSM, PKH and actuals; 5 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey; 6 Inter-Parliamentary Union J u l y 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 57 October 2013 Continuing adjustment INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Continuing adjustment October 2013 Preface The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer- term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia’s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia’s evolving economy. The IEQ is a product of the World Bank’s Jakarta office. The report is compiled by the Macro and Fiscal Policy Cluster, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network, under the guidance of Jim Brumby, Sector Manager and Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist and Economic Advisor, and Ashley Taylor, Senior Economist. The core project team, with responsibility for Part A (economic update), editing and production, comprises Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Brendan Coates, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Shakira Jones, Alex Sienaert, Violeta Vulovic and Michele Savini Zangrandi. Administrative support is provided by Titi Ananto and Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Dissemination is organized by Farhana Asnap, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan, Nugroho, Randy Salim and Marcellinus Winata, under the guidance of Dini Sari Djalal. This edition of the IEQ also includes contributions from Alex Sienaert (Section B.1 on policy package), Natalia Cubillos Salcedo and Henry Sandee (Section B.2 on container dwell times at Tanjung Priok), Ahya Ihsan and Bill Wallace (Director, AIPEG) (Section C.1 on infrastructure investment), and Samer Al-Samarrai (Section C.2. on local governance and education performance). Key input and comments were also received from Djauhari Sitorus, Pamitra Wineka and The Fei Ming (banking sector, credit and corporate sector update), Ririn Purnamasari and Matthew Wai-Poi (BLSM and poverty update), Rubino Sugana (public revenues), Mark Ahern, Enda Ginting and Hari Purnomo (budget execution), and Yue Man Lee, Mattia Makovec, Arvind Nair, Sjamsu Rahardja, Connor Spreng and Della Temenggung (policy package), Wahyoe Soerdarmono, Paul Lemaistre and Jon Sariatmadja (infrastructure investment). The team also benefited from discussions and comments from Deepak Mishra, David Hawes and Roland Rajah (AusAID), and Bill Wallace (AIPEG). This report is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, supported by funding from the Australian Government –– AusAID, under the Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA) program. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent, AusAID or the Australian Government. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or endorsement of such boundaries. Cover and chapter photographs are by Josh Estey and Ed Wrey, World Bank Education team, and copyright of the World Bank. All rights reserved. For more World Bank analysis of Indonesia’s economy: For information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia, please visit www.worldbank.org/id. In order to be included on an email distribution list for this Quarterly series and related publications, please contact madriani@worldbank.org. For questions and comments relating to this publication, please contact asienaert@worldbank.org. Table of contents   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: CONTINUING ADJUSTMENT I  A. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL UPDATE 1  1.  International market volatility as external financing costs have risen 1  2.  Indonesia’s economy is expected to continue decelerating into 2014 3  3.  Indonesia’s current account deficit persists despite slowing imports 8  4.  The currency has weakened and financing conditions are tightening 12  5.  Inflation has picked up on higher fuel prices 16  6.  The fiscal risks from energy subsidy costs are to the fore again 18  7.  Policy settings and ongoing reform progress can play a key role as external balances adjust 23  B. SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA’S ECONOMY 25  1.  The Government’s August policy package 25  a.  Measures to support foreign direct investment 26  b.  Measures to improve the current account deficit and maintain Rupiah stability 27  c.  Measures to support employment 27  d.  Measures to reduce inflation 28  e.  Assessing the policy package 29 2.  Enhancing connectivity through improved port performance 30  a.  Improved port performance: the key to unlocking trade 30  b.  Buckling under the pressure to keep up 31  c.  Where are the main challenges? 32  d.  A number of important steps have already been taken to address the situation… 34  e.  …and a number of further practical measures have been identified 34  C. INDONESIA 2014 AND BEYOND: A SELECTIVE LOOK 36  1.  Estimating the stock of infrastructure in Indonesia 36  a.  Infrastructure investment relative to GDP has fallen since 1997/98 37  b.  Indonesia’s stock of infrastructure capital has likely declined relative to the total… 38  c.  …affecting Indonesia’s growth trajectory 40 2.  Local governance and education performance 43  a.  Local education governance is important for improving performance 44  b.  The Indonesian Local Education Governance (ILEG) survey 44  c.  The main findings of the ILEG survey 45  d.  Without addressing key governance constraints, performance is unlikely to improve 48  APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 49  LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: International financing costs increased sharply over the past quarter… .......................... 2  Figure 2: …while commodity prices, including for Indonesia’s major export products, stayed under pressure.............................................................................................................. 2   Figure 3: Nominal GDP growth has decelerated sharply, in line with falling export prices ........... 3  Figure 4: While building investment has continued to grow robustly, other investment spending has slowed sharply… ................................................................................................... 4  Figure 5: …but tighter monetary policy is likely to weigh increasingly on building investment .... 4  Figure 6: Recent history suggests a rise in consumption growth around national elections .......... 5  Figure 7: Export volumes have continued to recover, while imports have remained subdued ....... 5  Figure 8: High frequency data suggest consumer demand is softening… ...................................... 6  Figure 9: …while capital imports remain subdued ........................................................................... 6  Figure 10: Real GDP growth is expected to slow .............................................................................. 6  Figure 11: The current account deficit widened to USD 9.8 billion in Q2, as the goods balance fell into deficit… ................................................................................................................ 8  Figure 12: …as price falls suppressed commodity export revenues, despite improving volume growth .......................................................................................................................... 8  Figure 13: Imports of consumer goods and fuels drove aggregate imports higher ahead of Ramadan ...................................................................................................................... 9  Figure 14: FDI flows are likely to be affected by weaker commodity revenues ............................... 9  Figure 15: Import demand is expected to continue to slow in line with slower domestic demand growth into 2014 ......................................................................................................... 10  Figure 16: Gross external financing needs are substantial and liquidity risks have risen… .......... 11  Figure 17: The Rupiah has depreciated significantly in nominal but not real terms since 2011… 12  Figure 18: …with bouts of significant US Dollar illiquidity, as indicated by spreads between onshore and offshore rates ......................................................................................... 12  Figure 19: Weak new loan approvals point to a further slowing in bank credit growth going forward… ................................................................................................................... 14  Figure 20: …while slowing deposit growth will also weigh on lending activity ............................ 14  Figure 21: Indonesian corporates face rising financing costs offshore........................................... 14  Figure 22: Inflation rose sharply at the beginning of Q3 driven by food and fuel prices… .......... 16  Figure 23: …causing a small uptick in core inflation .................................................................... 16  Figure 24: Core inflation normalized rapidly after the subsidized fuel price increases in 2005 and 2008 ............................................................................................................................. 17  Figure 25: The prices of certain foods spiked due to trade restrictions and Ramadan….............. 17  Figure 26: Inflation is projected to peak in year-on-year terms in Q4 ........................................... 17  Figure 27: Forecast GDP growth is sensitive to the outlook for investment .................................. 24  Figure 28: Indonesia currently lags its Asian peers in the cost and speed of logistics… .............. 31  Figure 29: …and container dwell times at its most important port, Tanjung Priok, have been increasing ................................................................................................................... 31  Figure 30: Dwell time components and key stakeholders .............................................................. 32  Figure 31: Import processes at Tanjung Priok ................................................................................ 32  Figure 32: The upstream stage poses the key challenge for overall dwell times ............................ 33  Figure 33: Mismatch between container arrivals and import declarations point to 24/7 system challenges ................................................................................................................... 33  Figure 34: Infrastructure investment levels to GDP have fallen with the exception of subnational government ................................................................................................................ 37   Figure 35: The total capital stock has grown at a faster real rate than the infrastructure capital stock.… ...................................................................................................................... 38  Figure 36: …resulting in a decline in the ratio of the infrastructure capital stock relative to the total capital stock ....................................................................................................... 38   Figure 37: Greater investment in infrastructure capital would have been associated with higher average growth ........................................................................................................... 41  Figure 38: Local governments provide the bulk of education financing for basic education ........ 44  Figure 39: Higher quality local education governance is associated with better education performance ............................................................................................................... 45   Figure 40: Small overall improvements in education governance but big shifts in some dimensions .................................................................................................................................... 46  Figure 41: District capacity to catalogue and disseminate good practice has declined................. 47  Figure 42: Some aspects of the local planning and budget process have improved ...................... 47  LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES Appendix Figure 1: Quarterly and annual GDP growth.................................................................. 49  Appendix Figure 2: Contributions to GDP expenditures ............................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 3: Contributions to GDP production................................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 4: Motor cycle and motor vehicle sales ............................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 5: Consumer indicators........................................................................................ 49  Appendix Figure 6: Industrial production indicators ..................................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 7: Real trade flows ............................................................................................... 50  Appendix Figure 8: Balance of payments........................................................................................ 50  Appendix Figure 9: Exports of goods .............................................................................................. 50  Appendix Figure 10: Imports of goods ............................................................................................ 50  Appendix Figure 11: Reserve and capital inflows ............................................................................ 50  Appendix Figure 12: Inflation and monetary policy........................................................................ 50  Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI ........................................................................... 51  Appendix Figure 14: Inflation comparison across countries .......................................................... 51  Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice prices.......................................................... 51  Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate .................................................................... 51  Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices.................................................................................. 51  Appendix Figure 18: Dollar index and Rupiah exchange rate ........................................................ 51  Appendix Figure 19: 5-year local currency government bond yields .............................................. 52  Appendix Figure 20: Sovereign USD Bond EMBI spreads ............................................................ 52  Appendix Figure 21: International commercial bank lending ........................................................ 52  Appendix Figure 22: Banking sector indicators .............................................................................. 52  Appendix Figure 23: Government debt ........................................................................................... 52  Appendix Figure 24: External debt.................................................................................................. 52  LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Indonesia’s economic growth rate is projected to slow to 5.3 percent in 2014 ..................ii  Table 2: Under the baseline scenario GDP growth of 5.6 percent is projected for 2013 and 5.3 percent for 2014 ............................................................................................................ 7   Table 3: …with investment inflows key to the overall BOP outlook as the CAD is likely to narrow only gradually .............................................................................................................. 11  Table 4: Moderate revenue collection was the standout feature of the Jan – Aug 2013 period, relative to previous years............................................................................................ 19  Table 5: The World Bank projects a fiscal deficit in 2013 of 2.5 percent, up from 2.1 percent in the July 2013 IEQ ............................................................................................................. 21  Table 6: The direct impact of a 10 percent Rupiah depreciation or increase in the oil price is an increase in the Budget deficit of at least 0.4 percentage points of GDP .................. 22  Table 7: The growth of the infrastructure capital stock is sensitive to the assumed initial level of the infrastructure capital stock and depreciation rate .............................................. 39  Table 8: Selected studies of estimates of the elasticity of output with respect to infrastructure ... 40  Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES Appendix Table 1: Budget outcomes and projections .................................................................... 53  Appendix Table 2: Balance of Payments ......................................................................................... 53  Appendix Table 3: Indonesia’s historical macro-economic indicators at a glance ....................... 54  Appendix Table 4: Indonesia’s development indicators at a glance .............................................. 55  LIST OF BOXES Box 1: An update on unconditional cash transfers and the poverty rate ........................................ 20  Box 2: The fiscal impact of changes in the Rupiah exchange rate and oil prices .......................... 22  Box 3: The sensitivity of GDP growth to investment ...................................................................... 24  Box 4: Methodological note on estimating infrastructure capital stock in Indonesia ................... 39  Box 5: Empirical studies on the links between public and infrastructure capital stocks and growth .................................................................................................................................... 40  Box 6: The effect of capacity development grants provided to district education offices ............. 48  Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Executive summary: Continuing adjustment Indonesia is Indonesia’s economic growth is slowing, weighed down by the cumulative impact of the undergoing significant weakening in key commodity prices which has been underway since 2011 and by tightening economic adjustments domestic and international financing conditions, and challenged by aspects of the policy precipitated by a environment. At the same time, external financing needs have increased, in part due to the weakening in its widening current account deficit. The pace of adjustment to these developments has external balances… intensified in recent months. Along with other major emerging market economies (EMEs), Indonesian financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence, with the Rupiah depreciating significantly against the US dollar. Policy settings are also responding, with monetary policy, for example, being tightened. …bringing slower Reflecting these developments, the World Bank’s projection for 2014 growth has been growth and increasing lowered to 5.3 percent – still relatively resilient, but a notable downgrade on the near-term the focus on policies economic outlook. The current phase of economic adjustment also brings with it risks of a more material, and longer-lasting, down-shift in growth, in the absence of the support provided by cheap international financing costs and strong commodity demand. This places a premium on continued macroeconomic policy adjustment, enhancing ongoing efforts to lift competitiveness and the sustainable growth rate of the economy, and on protecting the vulnerable from the impact of moderating growth and future economic shocks. International financial Recent months have seen marked international financial market turbulence, triggered by the market volatility has prospect of gradually normalizing monetary policy in the US. Portfolio investment flows and been at the fore, debt and equity financing costs for EMEs, including Indonesia, have responded abruptly to although global growth the sharp rise in US interest rates. At the same time, and one of the contributors to the is turning more recent market volatility, there has been a general strengthening in the performance of high supportive… income economies as their recovery continues. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA i Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly …but key commodity In part reflecting the moderation in China’s growth and investment outlook, international prices have remained commodity prices have generally remained under downward pressure, the key exception for under pressure, with Indonesia being global fuel prices. The export-weighted US Dollar price index of Indonesia’s the exception of oil… top six commodity exports (accounting for just under half of total exports) fell by 8 percent in 2013 through the end of August, to be 35 percent lower than its post-2008/09 peak in January 2011. The price of Brent crude oil, in contrast, rose 7 percent from January 2011 to August 2013, and is broadly flat year-to-date. This divergence between global energy prices and non-energy prices has been an important driver of the weakening in Indonesia’s balance of trade since 2011, and places additional pressures on the Government’s fiscal position. …presenting a Global economic growth is set to continue improving, with Indonesia’s major trading challenging picture for partners projected to grow by 3.4 percent over 2013, the same rate for the year as a whole as Indonesia’s external in 2012 but reflecting a pick-up in the second half of 2013, and moving up to 3.9 percent in balances 2014. However, in the baseline commodity prices are not projected to turn significantly more supportive for Indonesia’s terms of trade. Furthermore, as global financial markets continue to adjust to the implications of reduced monetary accommodation in high income economies, the volatility of capital flows, and external financing costs, appear set to remain elevated, for Indonesia as for other EMEs. Indonesia’s economic and policy adjustment to weaker external balances, now well underway, is therefore likely to remain center-stage. Growth slowed in the A moderation in demand has an important role to play in moving the current account, and second quarter, but hence overall external financing needs, into alignment with the tighter external financing despite this an conditions. Indonesia’s economy has indeed slowed over 2013 so far, with investment unexpectedly wide growth being the major drag. Growth in the second quarter was 5.8 percent, dipping under current account deficit 6.0 percent for the first time since 2010. Despite the incipient weakening in domestic was recorded demand, seasonal factors, coupled with the sustained weakness in export revenues, contributed to an unexpectedly large widening of Indonesia’s quarterly current account deficit to 4.4 percent of GDP. The release of these data, and the reactions of investors already rebalancing their portfolios in favor of high income economy assets, placed considerable pressure on the Rupiah in late August. These pressures contributed to Bank Indonesia’s decision to lift interest rates further, taking the cumulative increase in key interest rates since June to 150 basis points, and to introduce additional macro-prudential measures to dampen credit growth and new policies to support foreign exchange liquidity, which had tightened. GDP growth is In light of recent events, a more pronounced moderation in Indonesia’s economic growth to projected to slow and 5.3 percent in 2014, from 5.6 percent in 2013, is now projected than was previously expected the current account (Table 1). This compares with the July 2013 IEQ projections of a dip to 5.9 percent for 2013 deficit to narrow and then return to 6.2 percent in 2014. The current account deficit is projected to remain modestly through sizeable, though with a narrowing bias, to come in at 2.6 percent of GDP in 2014. Having 2014… been pushed higher temporarily by the June increase in subsidized fuel prices, inflation is expected to peak in year-on-year terms in the fourth quarter and, absent significant cost- push shocks, to moderate to an annual average of 6.7 percent in 2014. Table 1: Indonesia’s economic growth rate is projected to slow to 5.3 percent in 2014 2011 2012 2013p 2014p Real GDP (Annual percent change) 6.5 6.2 5.6 5.3 Consumer price index (Annual percent change) 5.4 4.3 7.3 6.7 Current account deficit (Percent of GDP) 0.2 -2.8 -3.4 -2.6 Budget balance (Percent of GDP) -1.1 -1.9 -2.5 -2.3 Major trading partner GDP (Annual percent change) 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.9 Source: BI; BPS; Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff projections …but risks remain Downside risks to the economic outlook are sizable. Domestic risks stem from domestic elevated… demand being impacted more than expected by higher prices, higher interest rates, and the negative wealth and corporate investment activity effects from the stock price, and especially October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA ii Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly currency, volatility seen since May. External risks to the outlook center on the trajectory of non-oil commodity prices, international fuel costs, and external financing conditions. Much also depends on the performance of China’s economy, and investment demand, and the quality of the policy responses in both high income and developing economies as global liquidity becomes less abundant. Should these factors play out favorably, there is also a chance that the global recovery through 2014 proves stronger than expected in the base case, lifting Indonesia’s growth prospects and providing some relief for its external position, so long as it can capitalize on the opportunities generated by stronger global trade and investment dynamics. …placing a premium Indonesia’s fiscal and monetary policy settings will continue to play a key role in facilitating on continued the adjustments now taking place and in minimizing associated risks. There are, however, macroeconomic policy trade-offs between the objectives of restraining inflation, supporting growth and adjusting flexibility to facilitate the current account deficit to the tighter financing environment. Monetary policy faces the near-term challenge of calibrating interest and exchange rates so as to guard against rising inflationary adjustment… pressures as cost pressures rise (such as from the pass-through of the weaker currency or wage increases) while facilitating improvements in the external balances, and without unduly crimping economic growth and weakening public and private sector balance sheets. With the 2014 Budget under discussion with Parliament, fiscal policy faces the challenge of slower revenue growth, and higher energy subsidy and nominal debt-financing costs, raising the importance of lifting further the quality of spending and of revenue mobilization. Maintaining a prudent overall fiscal stance, coordinated with the tightening in monetary policy, can help to meet this challenge. Building on the important June increase in subsidized fuel prices, further reforms to the current system of inefficient and distortionary energy subsidies could play an important role in freeing up spending for key development expenditures such as infrastructure and health, as well as in limiting the sizeable fiscal risks they generate to fluctuations in the exchange rate or shocks to global oil prices. …reducing Given the uncertainties generated by moderating growth momentum, and volatile but uncertainties through generally tightening external financing conditions, maintaining strong communication communication and around policy changes and a strong focus on implementation can help to support contingency confidence. Policy also has a role to play in mitigating the negative impacts of particularly planning… adverse scenarios, should tail risks materialize. The Government has put considerable efforts into enhancing its crisis preparedness in recent years. Monitoring and response coordination mechanisms are in place to facilitate a flexible response to any major market dislocations. The Government now has contingent fiscal financing equivalent to approximately USD 5 billion to draw on in the event of a significant deterioration in financing conditions, while Bank Indonesia has recently made efforts to secure additional bilateral US Dollar swap lines. …and continuing to The recent pressures on the external balances and growth serve as a reminder of the need drive progress on for further efforts to improve the diversification of Indonesia’s exports and to lift the reforms to lift competitiveness of the economy in order to sustain a more rapid pace of growth and Indonesia’s sustainable development. The depreciation of the Rupiah to date should provide a short-term boost to growth rate competitiveness, but this will only prove lasting if not eroded by domestic cost pressures, such as from wage increases, and if policies and investments are put in place to enhance the flexibility of the supply-side of the economy. Measures to increase competitiveness and improve the regulatory environment can thus assist not only to alleviate near-term external funding pressures by stimulating exports and encouraging foreign direct investment, but also help to lift longer-term employment and economic growth. The Government’s In response to the intensification of financial market pressures, and in conjunction with the policy package monetary policy and currency market measures mentioned above, on August 23 the announced in August Government announced a policy package containing measures intended to improve the contained measures to current account, safeguard purchasing power and facilitate growth, contain inflationary support exports and pressure, and maintain investment flows. Some of the reform measures involved retracting investment, but interventionist policies on trade and proposals for improving certainty in the business implementation will be environment. However, the details and implementation of the measures, and their key contribution to achieving the required adjustment in the external balances, remain to be October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA iii Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly seen. While political interests in policymaking as the election approaches are likely to increase, there is also the opportunity for reforms to be strengthened in the near-term, given the potential costs and consequences of not doing so in the current economic environment. In the near-term, Efforts to improve Indonesia’s international connectivity have a crucial role to play in improving increasing the country’s export competitiveness and encouraging investment. One of the key international practical challenges for improving Indonesia’s international connectivity is reducing dwell connectivity, such as times at Indonesia’s most important port, Tanjung Priok (handling over two-thirds of through the logistics Indonesia’s entire international trade), which have almost doubled for inbound containers performance at since the start of 2011, to an average of over ten days as of August. A number of important Indonesia’s gateway steps have already been taken to address this situation. Additional regulatory reforms and Tanjung Priok port, procedural improvements can further reduce upstream processing times, for example, by can provide a welcome increasing the use of priority clearance channels and parallel customs processing, as well as lift to competitiveness providing incentives for the early submission of import declarations and improving the performance of the Indonesian National Single Window. The level and quality of As well-recognized by the Government, improvements in Indonesia’s physical infrastructure infrastructure spending can also unlock another well-known constraint on Indonesia’s competitiveness and remains a key sustainable growth rate. Better infrastructure can also enhance other development outcomes, determinant of long- such as in health and education, by improving accessibility. Recent evidence compiled by the term trade and growth World Bank suggests that there have been insufficient additions to Indonesia’s infrastructure performance capital stock since the Asian financial crisis, causing it to fall relative to both the total capital stock and to the size of the economy. Over the 2001-2011 period, initial simulations suggest that moving the annual growth in the infrastructure capital stock up to 5 percent, against the actual estimated rate of 3 percent, could have lifted average annual GDP growth to 5.8 percent, 0.5 percent above the actual average, resulting in a 5 percent higher level of GDP in 2011. While results such as these are sensitive to assumptions, they do point to the need to improve both the quantity and quality of public investment, while also providing a strong enabling environment for private sector infrastructure investments. Continuing to increase the budget allocation for infrastructure plays a role, but fiscal sustainability and competing demands for public funds also argue for a strong focus on efficiency, including ensuring the smooth operation and maintenance of existing infrastructure, and further efforts to improve the quality of public investment management. Improved data availability and quality in this area to inform policy is also needed. Education Also vital for growth, as well as being a key development goal in its own right, is Indonesia’s performance is also human capital – the knowledge and skills of its people. In the last fifteen years, Indonesia critical for has introduced a comprehensive package of education reforms designed to expand access development, requiring and improve quality. A key component of the reform process has been the devolution of more improvements in responsibility for basic education services to local governments and schools, and local governance improvements in local governance can thus play a vital role in raising the quality of basic education and ensuring children leave school with adequate skills. Indeed, the Indonesian Local Education Governance (ILEG) surveys, conducted in 2009 and 2012, suggest that the quality of local governance is important for improving district education performance, making it important to continue to address key governance constraints, and to better coordinate and integrate central government financing in local education planning. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA iv Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly A. Economic and fiscal update 1. International market volatility as external financing costs have risen International financial The external picture for Indonesia, and other emerging market economies (EMEs), has been market volatility has dominated by international financial market volatility, and a rise in external financing costs, been at the fore… triggered by the prospect of the gradual normalization of monetary policy in the US. Between early May (as speculation mounted that a reduction in the US Federal Reserve’s bond purchases would be announced) and early September (when market expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin to “taper” its purchases later in the month peaked), the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose by 135 basis points, to just under 3 percent, its highest level since May 2011. In response, debt and equity financing costs for EMEs, including Indonesia, moved up abruptly (Figure 1), and investment outflows were seen. …although economic Market developments have also reflected a continued strengthening of growth in high conditions in high income economies. The Euro Area emerged from its long recession in the second quarter, income economies are and the economies of both Japan and the US expanded at a solid pace. Third quarter data improving… suggest that this has continued, and the pick-up is expected to be sustained, as high income economies continue to recover from the 2008/09 global financial crisis and its aftermath. This ongoing recovery can support Indonesia’s exports, both directly (as close to a third of exports are sold to the Euro Area, Japan and the US) and indirectly, through its spillover into global demand and Indonesian export prices. However, the outlook for Indonesia’s other trading partners is more mixed. …adding to a mixed Currency and stock market sell-offs were most pronounced for those EMEs with significant picture for major current account financing requirements, notably Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, India and developing Indonesia. Part of the selling pressure in emerging markets experienced through early economies… September, however, can be attributed to the pricing in of a smaller growth differential between emerging and high income economies, reflecting slower growth in the former and, as discussed, faster growth in the latter. This, coupled with the expectation of less abundant global liquidity, presents a challenging combination for many EMEs, and the outlook for Indonesia’s major developing country trading partners is indeed mixed. China (the Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 1 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly destination of approximately 11 percent of Indonesian exports, and a key driver of global commodity prices) appears on track to meet its official target of 7.5 percent growth in 2013, down just slightly from 7.8 percent in 2012, while in contrast growth has declined significantly in India (which accounts for approximately 7 percent of total exports and is a major market for selected export products such as coal and palm oil). …while non-energy International commodity prices have generally weakened further in recent months, commodity prices have influenced by the strengthening in the US Dollar, the key exception being global fuel prices continued to weaken (which were affected by concerns over the conflict in Syria). The export-weighted US Dollar price index of Indonesia’s top six commodity exports (accounting for just under half of total exports) fell by 8 percent in 2013 through the end of August, to be 35 percent lower than its post-2008/09 peak in January 2011 (Figure 2). The price of Brent crude oil, in contrast, rose 7 percent from January 2011 to August 2013, and is broadly flat year-to-date. The divergent trend between global energy and non-energy prices since 2011 is in stark contrast to their more typical close correlation, and is a key aspect of the significant deterioration in Indonesia’s trade balance since 2011 (see Section 3), and adds to fiscal pressures given energy subsidy spending. Figure 1: International financing costs increased sharply Figure 2: …while commodity prices, including for over the past quarter… Indonesia’s major export products, stayed under pressure (yields, percent) (US dollar price index, 2000 average=100) 16 500 Global 14 energy prices 400 Index of Indonesia's 12 Emerging market sovereign USD six major export bonds (EMBIG) commodities 10 Indonesia sovereign USD bonds 300 (EMBIG sub-index) 8 200 6 Global non-energy 4 commodity prices 100 2 5-year US Treasury note 0 0 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Source: JP Morgan Source: World Bank and staff calculations The global growth The World Bank continues to expect a gradually improving global economic backdrop for backdrop is expected Indonesia, whose major trading partners are expected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2013, to continue improving, picking up to 3.9 percent in 2014, supporting demand for Indonesia’s exports. However, but the risks remain persistent, and often interrelated, risks to the international economic outlook remain, both high amidst financial on the upside and downside. Much depends on the continued positive trajectory of high market volatility and income economies, the outlook for China, and the avoidance of significant dislocations in the increase in external both high income and developing economies as international liquidity becomes less financing costs abundant. As financial markets continue to adjust to the implications of reduced monetary accommodation in the US, the volatility of portfolio investment, and level of financing costs, appears set to remain elevated, for Indonesia as for other EMEs. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 2 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2. Indonesia’s economy is expected to continue decelerating into 2014 Economic growth has As experienced by many other major EMEs, Indonesia’s economy has slowed over 2013, moderated so far in weighed down by weaker investment momentum. Growth in the second quarter moderated 2013 and this is to 5.8 percent, below 6.0 percent for the first time since 2010. The World Bank has lowered expected to continue its projection for GDP growth in 2013 to 5.6 percent, down from the 5.9 percent projection in the July 2013 IEQ, and has also lowered the projection for growth in 2014 to 5.3 percent from 6.2 percent previously. The sizeable downgrade for 2014 reflects a more subdued outlook for domestic demand, as the economy adjusts to tighter financing conditions and lower commodity prices. While export prices, particularly for commodities, are expected to be weak, export volumes are expected to continue to stage a mild recovery as growth in advanced economies recovers. Import growth will likely remain relatively subdued, consistent with the outlook for domestic demand and the (lagged) effects of the Rupiah depreciation. Consequently, unlike in 2012, when net exports were a drag on growth, it is expected that net exports will add to growth over 2013 and 2014. Domestic demand Indonesia’s real GDP growth slowed in the second quarter of 2013, to 5.8 percent year-on- eased slightly in Q2… year (yoy) versus 6.0 percent in the first quarter. Quarter-on-quarter growth in seasonally adjusted terms of 1.4 percent was marginally higher than the first quarter result of 1.3 percent. On the expenditure side, a continued easing in investment growth was the key driver behind the yoy moderation, though there was also some contribution from consumption, with overall domestic demand growth slowing to 4.7 percent yoy, from 5.0 percent yoy in Q1. Partially offsetting the moderation in domestic demand has been net exports, which added to growth in the first half of 2013, as growth in export volumes has continued to improve, outpacing that of imports. …and growth in More marked has been the Figure 3: Nominal GDP growth has decelerated sharply, in nominal GDP remains continued decline in nominal line with falling export prices subdued, consistent GDP growth to 7.8 percent (yoy growth, percent) with lower terms of yoy in the second quarter, 30 trade down from 8.6 percent in the first quarter and the lowest yoy growth rate in over 20 thirteen years (Figure 3). This Nominal GDP largely reflects a significant drop in the growth of the GDP deflator, broadly in line 10 with the large fall in GDP Indonesia’s terms of trade deflator since 2011 as global 0 commodity prices have Exports deflator softened. The GDP deflator grew by a mere 0.3 percent -10 qoq-sa and 1.8 percent yoy in Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 the second quarter, well Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations below consumer price inflation. With global commodity prices and also the nominal exchange rate not expected to strengthen appreciably in the base case, the terms of trade, GDP deflator and hence nominal GDP growth will likely remain subdued in the near-term. The negative terms of trade shock, the impact of which has been playing out through the economy since late 2011, will continue to have significant negative implications for profitability and income growth, particularly in commodity-related sectors and geographic areas. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 3 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Investment growth Weaker investment growth has been a key driver behind the slowing in real GDP growth. In continues to moderate, yoy terms, investment growth moderated to 4.7 percent in the quarter, down from 5.8 coinciding with the percent in Q1 and 12.5 percent a year ago (Q2 2012). There was some pickup in the significant fall in quarterly growth rate (to 2.4 percent qoq-sa), though it is difficult to draw conclusions from commodity-related quarterly movements in investment due to its lumpy nature. To date most of the weakness in activity investment growth has been due to investment in machinery and equipment and transportation (Figure 4), as reflected in drops in capital goods imports. This has coincided with a significant fall in commodity-related activity, particularly in nominal terms, putting downward pressure on export earnings and profitability, which has fed through into lower investment and production. In contrast, the growth in real building investment (85 percent of total investment) has remained solid but could come under additional pressure going forward. …and investment is The outlook for investment has weakened since the July IEQ. The cost of a number of key expected to weaken inputs has increased significantly. The depreciation of the Rupiah has led to higher imported further, with the costs, for capital goods and fuel inputs, and minimum wages have seen sizeable increases. As tightening in credit discussed below, domestic financing conditions have tightened and, for commodity-related conditions expected to corporates, the scope for internal financing through retained earnings has been affected by weigh on building the fall in commodity prices. Consistent with historical experience, tighter monetary policy is investment expected to dampen credit and investment, putting pressure on investment, including building-related investment (Figure 5). With historical experience suggesting that higher interest rates impact economic activity with a lag of a couple of quarters, the negative impact on activity, particularly investment, will mostly occur towards the end of 2013 and into 2014. Given the significant risks to investment, such as a further tightening in financing conditions but also regulatory changes or uncertainties, particularly as the political cycle intensifies ahead of national elections, Box 3 highlights the marked sensitivity of the outlook for GDP growth in 2014 to the trajectory of investment. Figure 4: While building investment has continued to grow Figure 5: …but tighter monetary policy is likely to weigh robustly, other investment spending has slowed sharply… increasingly on building investment (growth in investment yoy, percent) (growth in nominal building investment and credit yoy, percent) monetary tightening cyles 40 50 30 Real investment excluding building 40 Nominal credit 30 20 20 10 10 Real building investment Nominal building 0 investment 0 -10 -10 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Notes: Monetary tightening cycles represent periods when benchmark interest rates increased (BI reference rate, 2005-13; 30- day SBI rate, 2001-2004) Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 4 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly The outlook for private The outlook for consumption growth has also weakened. Growth in private consumption consumption growth picked up slightly in Q2, increasing 5.1 percent yoy . The pickup in sequential terms (by 1.3 has also weakened, as qoq-sa) reflected a strengthening in both food (up 1.0 percent qoq-sa) and non-food (up 1.5 fuel prices have percent qoq-sa) consumption, which had both been adversely impacted in Q1 by significant increased, food prices increases in food prices, many of which have since come down (see Section 5). have remained high Consumption growth is expected to moderate in the third quarter, with higher fuel prices and consumer and persistently high prices for a number of key food staples in the second and third quarter confidence has dipped expected to adversely impact on consumer purchasing power. These developments have been weighing on consumer confidence, with the BI consumer confidence index dropping in July and August, retracing the gains it has made over the past 18 months. Higher interest rates, tighter credit conditions, lower confidence and, on the margin, wealth effects of the recent financial market turbulence will also impact on private consumption. Spending in the lead up to the 2014 Parliamentary and Presidential elections, however, should provide some positive offset for consumption growth in late 2013 and into 2014 (Figure 6). Net exports are After subtracting from growth over much of 2012, net exports have added to yoy growth for expected to add to the past two quarters, as export growth has outpaced import growth (Figure 7). Real export growth in 2013 and growth (as measured by the national accounts) was positive, if subdued, in the second 2014, after subtracting quarter, up 0.8 percent qoq-sa and 4.8 percent yoy. Imports rebounded in the quarter, over much of 2012 increasing 3.7 percent qoq-sa but were only 0.6 percent higher yoy in Q2. In the base case, net exports are expected to add to growth over 2013 and 2014 as export volumes are expected to stage a mild recovery, in line with firming demand from high income economies and import volumes are expected to remain subdued in line with domestic demand. Figure 6: Recent history suggests a rise in consumption Figure 7: Export volumes have continued to recover, while growth around national elections imports have remained subdued (consumption growth yoy, percent) (export and import volume growth yoy, percent) 10 30 2004 2009 Imports Elections Elections 20 8 Non-food 10 6 0 Total 4 Exports Food -10 2 -20 0 -30 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations On the production On the production side, the moderation in yoy growth in the second quarter was broad- side, much of the based, with the agricultural and industrial sectors having the biggest impact on overall moderation in growth growth. Mining and quarrying activity remains weak, contracting by 1.2 percent yoy, with oil has been driven by the and gas down 4.7 percent yoy. Other industrial sectors generally performed robustly, such as industrial sectors, manufacturing (up 5.8 percent yoy) and construction (up 6.9 percent yoy). The majority of particularly mining and the services sectors continued to perform well, with transport and communication up 11.5 quarrying… percent yoy and trade, hotel & restaurants up 6.5 percent yoy, though down from over 10 percent growth in late 2011. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 5 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and a further, broad- The outlook is for weaker growth across most sectors as credit conditions tighten and global based moderation commodity prices remain subdued. The performance of non-commodity related across sectors is manufacturing is likely to be mixed, with export-orientated sub-sectors supported by anticipated in the base improving global growth and the depreciation in the Rupiah. However, with a number of case… Indonesia’s manufacturing industries dependent on imported inputs, the weaker exchange rate will raise some input costs, likely dampening some activity. …as pointed to by a High frequency indicators for July and August suggest there will be a continued moderation number of high in growth, though the Ramadan period complicates inference from these data. Consumption frequency economic growth indicators are in line with a weakening in the third quarter, with consumer activity indicators… confidence well off recent highs, and motorcycle, car sales and retail sales also showing some weakness over July and August (Figure 8). Growth in industrial production remains subdued, at only 3.2 percent yoy in July. Cement sales, a key indicator of building investment, have also weakened. Monthly capital goods imports, an important component of investment, remained subdued through August in seasonally adjusted sequential terms (Figure 9). Figure 8: High frequency data suggest consumer demand is Figure 9: …while capital imports remain subdued softening… (change versus previous period, seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, percent) (retail sales index, growth in 3-month moving average yoy, and BI consumer confidence index, 2010 average=100) 25 BI consumer 120 120 30 confidence (RHS) 100 Real investment (q/q, saar, smoothed) 25 115 20 80 20 110 60 15 40 15 105 20 10 10 0 100 5 -20 5 0 Retail sales (LHS) 95 -40 Import capital goods (3m/3m, saar) -60 -5 0 90 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations GDP growth is forecast The World Bank’s projection Figure 10: Real GDP growth is expected to slow at 5.6 percent for 2013 for GDP growth is 5.6 (real GDP growth, percent) and 5.3 percent for 2014 percent and 5.3 percent in 8 2013 and 2014, respectively Year on year (Figure 10). The sizeable downgrade in the 2014 6 projection, from 6.2 percent in the July IEQ, largely reflects a weaker outlook for domestic 4 demand as the economy continues to adjust to a Quarter on Quarter, sa number of pressures. The 2 adjustment that is needed in domestic demand will depend on how a number of factors 0 play out and associated policy Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 responses, as discussed Note: “sa” stands for seasonally adjusted further below. Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 6 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Table 2: Under the baseline scenario GDP growth of 5.6 percent is projected for 2013 and 5.3 percent for 2014 (percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) Annual Year to December quarter Revision to Annual 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 1. Main economic indicators Total consumption expenditure 4.8 5.0 5.1 3.9 5.6 4.8 0.1 -0.5 Private consumption expenditure 5.3 4.8 5.1 5.4 4.7 5.0 -0.1 -0.5 Government consumption 1.2 6.1 4.5 -3.3 10.1 4.1 1.7 -0.3 Gross fixed capital formation 9.8 5.3 4.9 7.3 4.9 4.9 0.9 -1.2 Exports of goods and services 2.0 5.6 5.7 0.5 6.1 6.7 -0.2 -0.4 Imports of goods and services 6.6 2.4 4.5 6.8 -0.1 4.9 1.4 -0.7 Gross Domestic Product 6.2 5.6 5.3 6.1 5.2 5.5 -0.2 -0.9 Agriculture 4.0 3.4 2.4 2.0 4.5 2.6 -0.8 -0.7 Industry 5.2 4.3 4.1 5.4 3.5 4.4 -0.2 -1.0 Services 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.6 6.7 7.0 -0.2 -1.0 2. External indicators Balance of payments (USD bn) 0.2 -15.4 -4.0 n/a n/a n/a -10.6 -9.2 Current account bal. (USD bn) -24.4 -29.2 -22.1 n/a n/a n/a -4.0 0.1 Trade balance (USD bn) -1.7 -7.9 -1.0 n/a n/a n/a -2.9 -0.4 Financial account bal. (USD bn) 25.1 15.1 18.1 n/a n/a n/a -5.4 -9.3 3. Other economic measures Consumer price index 4.3 7.3 6.7 4.3 9.8 4.4 0.1 0.0 Poverty basket Index 6.5 7.2 6.3 5.4 8.3 5.9 -0.2 -1.6 GDP deflator 4.6 2.6 4.2 2.7 3.3 4.7 -1.7 -2.0 Nominal GDP 11.0 8.4 9.7 9.0 8.6 10.4 -2.1 -3.1 4. Economic assumptions Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 9419 10400 11400 9630 11400 11400 650.0 1700.0 Indonesian crude price (USD/bl) 113 106 105 108 110 105 0.0 0.0 Major trading partner growth 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.1 4.0 4.0 0.0 -0.1 Note: Projected trade flows relate to the national accounts. Exchange rate is an assumption based on recent averages. Revisions are relative to projections in the July 2013 IEQ Source: MoF; BPS; BI; CEIC; World Bank projections Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 7 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 3. Indonesia’s current account deficit persists despite slowing imports Indonesia’s current Despite the incipient signs of slower growth in the second quarter, Indonesia's current account deficit account deficit widened to USD 9.8 billion in Q2 (Figure 11), or 4.4 percent of GDP, widened to 4.4 percent compared with USD 5.8 billion (2.6 percent of GDP) in Q1. This is the largest quarterly of GDP in Q2 2013, deficit by value on record. The current account balance typically exhibits a seasonal pressured by seasonal deterioration in the second quarter, with import demand, and corporate debt servicing and factors and price profit-repatriation outflows in the income sub-account, tending to pick up. This year this effects, which seasonal weakening was amplified by the timing of Ramadan, which contributed to a strong dominated a recovery rebound in non-oil and gas imports. In addition, ongoing weakness in the prices of in export volumes Indonesia’s major commodity exports offset a recovery in many of their volumes (Figure 12), pushing non-oil and gas goods export revenues down 4.9 percent yoy 3-month moving average (3mma) in August. The average of the 12 month commodity trade surplus has now declined from USD 5.5 billion in June 2011 to USD 3.4 billion in June 2013, according to BPS monthly trade data. Figure 11: The current account deficit widened to USD 9.8 Figure 12: …as price falls suppressed commodity export billion in Q2, as the goods balance fell into deficit… revenues, despite improving volume growth (account balances, USD billion) (growth in 3-month moving average yoy, percent) Current transfers Income balance 90 Services trade balance Goods trade balance Current account balance 12 Commodity exports (volumes) 60 8 30 4 0 0 -4 -30 Commodity exports (value) -8 -12 -60 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Source: BI Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Import demand picked Supported by pre-Ramadan demand, goods imports in July were just 0.8 percent down yoy in up ahead of Ramadan 3mma terms, but softened again in August to be down 1.7 percent yoy 3mma (Figure 13). but, on a longer view, Overall imports were supported by a sharp increase in imports of fuel, up 20.2 percent yoy has moderated over 3mma in August, and consumption goods, up 6.3 percent yoy 3mma over the same period. 2013 Imports of non-fuel intermediate goods (about 52 percent of total imports), and particularly capital goods (about 18 percent of total imports), however, remain subdued. The oil and gas trade Indonesia’s monthly oil and gas trade balance has been in deficit since August 2012, and deficit remains a continues to be a major drag on the overall trade balance. The oil and gas trade deficit stood particular challenge at USD 2.4 billion in Q2 (narrowing from USD 3.4 billion in Q1), and subsequently widened sharply to USD 1.9 billion in July alone (affected by seasonal factors as in August it narrowed to USD 0.9 billion). Domestic crude oil production continues to decline, with the crude oil balance entering into deficit, while limited onshore oil refining capacity has seen the processed oil trade deficit widen to USD 5.4 billion in Q2, albeit down from USD 6.2 billion in Q1, according to BPS. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 8 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 13: Imports of consumer goods and fuels drove Figure 14: FDI flows are likely to be affected by weaker aggregate imports higher ahead of Ramadan commodity revenues (3 month-moving-average import value growth yoy, percent) (growth in 4-quarter moving average of inbound FDI yoy, percent, Indonesia export weighted commodity price index) 40 500 80 Inbound FDI growth (LHS) Intermediate: fuel 60 20 400 40 20 0 300 0 Indonesia export- Total weighted commodity Intermediate: non-fuel -20 200 price index (RHS) -20 Consumption Capital -40 -40 100 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Indonesia continues to Overall inflows on the capital and financial account of USD 8.2 billion were seen in Q2, an rely on portfolio and improvement from a deficit of USD 0.3 billion in Q1. These inflows were not sufficient to other investment offset outflows on the current account, and reserves fell by USD 2.5 billion over the quarter. inflows to finance the The deficit of Indonesia’s basic balance, i.e. the sum of the current account and net direct current account investment inflows, has risen to USD 6.5 billion in Q2, up from USD 1.9 billion in Q4 2012. deficit… This places an increased reliance on financing from portfolio (USD 2.5 billion in Q2) and “other” investment (USD 2.3 billion) inflows. The portfolio investment inflows included USD 3.0 billion in global government bond issuance, offsetting significant net outflows from Indonesian domestic bonds and equities. The surplus in “Other” investment in Q2 represented a swing from a deficit of USD 7 billion in Q1, as a result of strong recorded deposit and currency inflows (USD 4.6 billion), partly reflecting seasonally strong foreign currency demand from bank customers to service external debts and repatriate profits, prompting banks to repatriate deposits onshore. …while FDI inflows Net direct investment inflows of USD 3.3 billion in Q2 were down from USD 3.9 billion in remain broadly stable Q1, on account of stronger outbound direct investment. Inbound direct investment inflows, as measured in the balance of payments, remained relatively stable at USD 4.2 billion (up slightly from USD 4.1 billion in Q1), but down on the average of just under USD 5 billion seen over 2011 and 2012, during which inflows moved up rapidly. Despite the growing sectoral diversification of inbound FDI, with manufacturing accounting for almost half of total FDI inflows in Q2, overall inbound FDI flows remain closely correlated with movements in global commodity prices, likely reflecting the channeling of commodity- related revenues into investments in other economic sectors in Indonesia (Figure 14). As a result, weaker global commodity prices, along with policy and political uncertainty in the run-up to the 2014 elections, pose risks to the outlook for FDI inflows. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 9 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Economic As growth continues to Figure 15: Import demand is expected to continue to slow in developments and moderate through 2014, line with slower domestic demand growth into 2014 recent policy slowing imports will support (intermediate import and domestic demand growth yoy, percent) adjustments are a modest narrowing in the 120 9 supportive of a modest current account, especially Domestic demand (RHS) narrowing of the intermediate and capital 90 current account goods imports, which have 7 deficit… moved down in line with the deceleration of investment 60 already seen since mid-2012 (Figure 15). As highlighted 30 5 above, fuel imports continue to weigh on the trade 0 balance. The increase in 3 subsidized fuel prices in June -30 may provide some modest Intermediate relief by dampening fuel Imports (LHS) import demand, hence -60 1 narrowing the current Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 account deficit by around 0.1 Note: Intermediate imports in Rupiah terms to 0.2 percentage points of Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations GDP (based on estimates in the July 2013 IEQ). The recent sharp nominal depreciation in the Rupiah – down 20 percent so far this year – will also provide some support to the trade balance by increasing Indonesia’s external competitiveness (though in trade-weighted terms the depreciation has been more modest, as shown in Section 4, below). Finally, export revenues are projected to pick up on the back of strengthening major trading partner growth, together with a stabilization of commodity export prices into 2014. …but gross financing Indonesia’s gross external financing needs are substantial, and those arising from the needs more broadly servicing and repayment of external debt are considerably larger than those generated by the remain substantial and current account deficit. Gross external debt repayments in Q2 totaled USD 43.1 billion, external financing while, as discussed above, the quarterly current account deficit stood at USD 9.8 billion conditions have (Figure 16). Tighter external financing conditions and Rupiah depreciation make for a more tightened costly and challenging environment for refinancing existing external debt, over half of which (or 15 percent of GDP) now consists of private external debt. This is particularly the case for corporates without access to natural currency hedges (through US Dollar revenues) and those heavily exposed to the recent weakening in global commodity prices. Official reserves remain more than sufficient to cover Indonesia’s short-term external financing needs, although the ratio of short-term external debt to official reserves has risen to around 50 percent, from 40 percent at end-2011. However, more importantly, external liquidity risks have risen, with the debt service ratio rising to 80 percent in June 2013, from around 30 percent in mid-2011. Bank Indonesia projects that repayments of external debt excluding trade finance, revolving loans and currency and deposits will total USD 32.6 billion over August to December 2013, of which USD 28.8 billion is private debt, with a further USD 33.4 billion in gross repayments expected in January-July 2014.1 The CAD is projected Overall, the World Bank projects a current account deficit of USD 29 billion in 2013, or 3.4 to be 3.4 percent in percent of GDP, wider than the deficit of 2.8 percent of GDP in 2012. In 2014, the current 2013 and 2.6 percent in account deficit is expected to narrow to 2.6 percent of GDP, as the anticipated slowdown in 2014… economic activity into 2014 dampens import demand, while recent Rupiah depreciation and a pick-up in growth among Indonesia’s major trading partners provide some support to exports. 1 Calculated by Bank Indonesia based on gross external debt outstanding in July 2013, excluding trade finance, revolving loans and currency and deposits.. See External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, Table 1.9. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 10 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly …assuming that a As always, current account balance projections are sensitive to the trajectory of domestic significant external demand and of non-oil commodity prices (for exports) and international fuel costs (for financing difficulty can imports). At the present time of heightened concern over the external financing be avoided… requirements of major EMEs, including Indonesia, however, an additional assumption underpinning the above baseline projection is that the adjustment process to tighter external financing conditions remains orderly. This assumption depends crucially upon the path of domestic and international policies and their interrelationship with investor confidence. Some policy changes to support foreign investment and trade competitiveness can be put in place in the short term (see Sections B.1 and B.2). However, other improvements in competitiveness are likely to take longer, including addressing the costs and bottlenecks caused by Indonesia’s infrastructure gap (see Section C.1). In the near-term, therefore, much focus will remain on the adjustment of import demand, both through expenditure switching (as Rupiah depreciation lifts import prices) and compression (as monetary and credit conditions tighten and more expensive imports discourage discretionary expenditure on goods with few or imperfect domestic substitutes in the short-run). Moderating domestic demand can play a role in easing balance of payments pressures, making policy coordination and communication paramount, particularly against the backdrop of an intensifying political cycle, as discussed further in Section 7, below. Figure 16: Gross external financing needs are substantial and Table 3: …with investment inflows key to the overall BOP liquidity risks have risen… outlook as the CAD is likely to narrow only gradually (USD billion, percent) (USD billion) USD billion Percent 2011 2012 2013p 2014p 60 100 Overall Balance of Debt service Payments 11.9 0.2 -15.4 -4.0 ratio (RHS) Current Account 1.7 -24.4 -29.2 -22.1 40 75 Trade 24.2 -1.7 -7.9 -1.0 External debt repayments (LHS) Income -26.7 -26.7 -25.6 -25.4 Transfers 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 20 50 Capital & Financial Accounts 13.6 25.1 15.1 18.1 Direct Inv. 11.5 14.0 14.1 12.3 0 25 Portfolio Inv. 3.8 9.2 4.0 6.5 Current account Ratio of short term external Other Inv. -1.8 1.9 -3.0 -0.7 deficit (LHS) debt to FX reserves (RHS) Reserves 110.1 112.8 91.8 87.8 -20 0 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Note: Repayments of all external debt, excluding only domestic Source: World Bank staff projections securities, currency and deposits owned by non-residents, and other liabilities to non-residents Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 11 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 4. The currency has weakened and financing conditions are tightening Indonesian financial As noted earlier, as in many other EMEs, Indonesia’s financial markets experienced another markets experienced a volatile quarter, reacting strongly to changes in global risk appetite, as well as domestic turbulent third quarter economic and policy developments. Amidst a global sell-off in emerging market assets, Indonesian equities fell by 8.6 percent over 19-20 August alone. After subsequent fluctuations (with gains following the postponement in “tapering” and helped by a significant number of company share buy-backs, followed by renewed weakness at the end of September), the index ended the quarter down 10.4 percent, to be unchanged for the year to date (reflecting previous strong gains in the index through May). Foreign investors were net sellers of a sizable IDR 8.5 trillion (approximately USD 800 million) in stocks over the quarter. Meanwhile the five-year Rupiah-denominated government bond yield increased by 180 basis points from the start of the quarter to reach 8.24 percent on September 11, before retracing 40 basis points to end the quarter at 7.85 percent. Looking through the volatility in financial asset prices, the most pronounced trends in the financial sector have been the depreciation in the Rupiah and the tightening in domestic and external financing conditions. Figure 17: The Rupiah has depreciated significantly in Figure 18: …with bouts of significant US Dollar illiquidity, nominal but not real terms since 2011… as indicated by spreads between onshore and offshore rates (nominal effective exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, and bilateral US (IDR per USD; IDR per USD spread; percent) Dollar exchange rate, index, 2010 average=100) 12,000 1,500 115 110 USD/IDR 105 REER 11,000 One-month NDF rate (LHS) 1,000 NEER 100 Spot rate (LHS) 95 10,000 500 90 85 9,000 0 80 Daily spread (NDF 75 over spot) (RHS) 70 8,000 -500 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Note: Figures to end-August 2013 Note: IDR spot rate figures from Bloomberg to 30 September 2013 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from IMF (IFS) Source: Bloomberg; World Bank staff calculations and JP Morgan The Rupiah has Following the abrupt moves of mid- to late-August, the Rupiah has continued to depreciate continued to in September, down to IDR 11,593 per US Dollar at the end of Q3, and has now depreciate, and there depreciated by 20 percent since the end of 2012, to its weakest level since early 2009. has been tightness in However, despite the sizeable nominal depreciation in the Rupiah between May and August, onshore dollar liquidity Indonesia’s real effective (trade-weighted) exchange rate as of August was down only 4 percent from its 2010 average (Figure 17), reflecting nominal falls against the US dollar of the currencies of some of Indonesia’s major trading partners and the rise in domestic inflation. The nominal adjustment has created challenges for the currency market, and for firms managing external liabilities. Dollar liquidity tightened significantly in early July, and again in mid- to late-August (Figure 18). Bank Indonesia has been managing the pace of adjustment in the Rupiah, with official reserves declining to USD 93 billion as of end-August 2013, equivalent to five months imports and government debt servicing needs, and down from USD 112.8 billion at end-2012. Bank Indonesia has also now taken a number of steps to support greater liquidity in onshore foreign exchange markets, including relaxing US Dollar purchase rules for exporters, extending the maturity of its USD term deposit facility to up to 12 months, and conducting US Dollar swap auctions to reduce spot US Dollar demand by facilitating commercial hedging against currency risks. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 12 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Monetary policy has Since June the monetary policy stance has shifted markedly towards tightening, displaying a been tightened focus on facilitating the adjustment in external balances and limiting inflationary pressures. significantly, through Pre-empting the increase in subsidized fuel prices, and with pressure on the Rupiah rate increases… intensifying since May, BI surprised markets on June 11 by increasing its overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25 basis points, followed by a 25 basis point increase in its reference rate at its subsequent June policy meeting. This was followed by a 50 basis point increase in these key policy rates in July. Policy rates were left unchanged at the scheduled Board of Governors meeting in August, though some new macro-prudential measures were announced. Following the release of weak second quarter balance of payments statistics and intensifying pressure on the Rupiah, the FASBI and reference rates were lifted by a further 50 basis points at an extraordinary policy meeting held on August 29 (in addition, the upper bound of the interest rate corridor, the BI lending facility rate, was also increased by 25 basis points). This was followed by a further 25 basis point increase in the FASBI, reference and lending facility rates at the scheduled meeting on September 12. Thus, since June, BI has raised its overnight deposit facility and reference rates by 150 basis points (to 5.5 and 7.25 percent, respectively), and its key lending rate by 50 basis points (to 7.25 percent). …and macro- A number of macro-prudential measures with a tightening bias have also been taken, with prudential measures the upper band of the loan-to-deposit ratio target having been lowered from 100 to 92 percent alongside more stringent loan-to-valuation ratios for residential mortgages, while the secondary reserve requirement ratio is set to be raised to 4 percent (from 2.5 percent) by December. BI has also taken a number of steps to facilitate liquidity management: allowing both government bonds and BI certificates of deposit to be counted against banks’ secondary reserve requirements, and introducing shorter tenor BI deposit securities. Bank credit growth is In additional to the recent rises in the cost of borrowing, there are signs of a slowing in the slowing, while credit cycle, in line with the softening in economic growth and BI’s macro-prudential policy aggregate banking measures. Real (ex post) yoy credit growth slowed to 13 percent yoy to July, its weakest pace sector health indicators since May 2010, in part reflecting temporarily higher inflation following the June increase in remain sound fuel prices. In nominal terms, aggregate credit growth has been broadly stable at 22 percent yoy to July, up slightly from 21 percent in June, with investment lending growth steady at 34 percent to July, up from 23 percent in May. Working capital loan growth has come down to 19 percent yoy in July, from around 24 percent yoy in early 2013, and consumption lending growth has been stable at around 20 percent yoy. Aggregate banking sector indicators remain stable, with non-performing loans remaining below 2 per cent, while Indonesian bank profitability has remained high. However, despite this performance to date, the banking sector could still face pressures on margins and credit quality from further decelerating growth or additional financial market volatility in upcoming months. New loan approvals Indeed, credit growth is expected to ease further, as signaled by weakening growth in new signal a turning in the loan approvals, which tend to lead lending growth (Figure 19). Growth in the supply of credit cycle in response funds for lending is slowing as deposit growth has come down. Meanwhile deposit rates to recent monetary have picked up since June, as have headline rupiah lending rates for working capital and policy tightening… investment loans, while rates for consumption lending have continued their steady decline over recent years. Higher rates and slower deposit growth are likely to weigh particularly on lending activity smaller banks, while larger banks are expected to be comparatively less affected, especially those with greater access to current and savings account deposits. As part of the macro-prudential measures mentioned above, BI reduced the upper bound of its target for a bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio from 100 to 92 percent, and increased the secondary minimum reserve requirement for rupiah deposits to 4 percent, from 2.5 percent. 2 Aggregate deposit growth slowed to 14 percent to July, in line with further weakening in nominal GDP growth to 7.8 percent in the year to June, resulting in a rise in the overall bank loan-to-deposit ratio to 88.7 percent in July, up from 83.6 percent at end-2012 (Figure 20). 2 Banks with loan-to-deposit ratios above the upper limit of the range, and a capital adequacy ratio below 14 percent, will have to place additional reserves with Bank Indonesia. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 13 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 19: Weak new loan approvals point to a further Figure 20: …while slowing deposit growth will also weigh on slowing in bank credit growth going forward… lending activity (3 month moving average yoy growth in new loan approvals, yoy credit growth; (yoy growth in bank lending and deposits; banking sector loan-to-deposit ratio; percent) percent, ratio) 300 50 50 New BI LDR ratio range upper limit (92 100 New loans approved (LHS) percent, RHS) 200 40 40 90 Loan to deposit ratio (RHS) 30 Lending 80 100 30 growth (LHS) 20 70 0 20 10 60 -100 10 0 50 Total credit outstanding Deposit growth (LHS) -200 0 -10 40 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-04 Jul-07 Jul-10 Jul-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations. Source: CEIC and World Bank staff calculations. …which is likely to A tightening availability of credit and higher domestic financing costs can be expected to weigh on growth… weigh on domestic economic activity going forward, and especially investment. At the same time, the projected moderation in growth may well reduce the demand for credit, with Bank Indonesia reducing its 2013 target for lending growth to 18 percent. Historical correlations suggest that a 4 to 5 percentage point fall in nominal bank credit growth is associated with a 1 percentage point decline in real economic growth. Overall, nominal credit growth is expected to ease to around 15 percent yoy in coming quarters, from 22 percent in July. …particularly Beyond bank credit, access to Figure 21: Indonesian corporates face rising financing investment, with a other forms of financing has costs offshore notable tightening in also tightened. Corporate bonds (yield to maturity, percent) financing conditions for are emerging as an alternative Bernanke raises prospect of Indonesian corporates source of financing to bank 10 USD Fed QE tapering (22 May) lending, although they still account for only 6 percent of total Indonesian financial assets CEMBI - Indonesia as of end-2011, which remain 8 dominated by banking assets (75 percent). Growth in onshore corporate bond issuance has slowed to 5 6 CEMBI - percent quarter-on-quarter all EMs 4qma to September from 50 percent to March.3 Secondary CEMBI - Asia market yields on Indonesian 4 USD corporate bonds also Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 point to sharply higher offshore Note: data to 30 September 2013 USD corporate funding costs, Source: JP Morgan with benchmark yields rising by around 170 basis points since early May (Figure 21).4 3 Calculated as a four quarter moving average (4qma) based on issuance data for Q3 to September 29. 4 Of the USD 15 billion in USD corporate bonds on issue at end 2012, the mining sector accounted for 71 percent, followed by infrastructure (14 percent), and finance (7 percent). Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 14 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Residential property Indonesian nationwide residential property price growth eased slightly in Q2, to 10.7 percent price growth stabilized yoy in June, down from a record pace of 11.2 percent yoy in March. Smaller homes (with in Q2 but remains floorspace of less than 36 square meters) continue to exhibit the strongest price growth, up elevated in some 16 percent yoy to June, and remain exempt from BI’s more stringent loan-to-value market segments requirements for residential mortgages for first home buyers. Commercial property also showed continued robust price growth, growth rates in the selling prices of residential apartments and industrial land, and of office space rentals, all remained above 25 percent on a yoy basis to June 2013 across the greater Jakarta (Jabodetabek) region. As noted in the March 2013 IEQ, such robust property price growth merits ongoing monitoring. However, property sector activity and price growth may well be impacted by tighter financing conditions, with bank lending for residential mortgages easing to 17.3 percent yoy in July, the announcement of further macro-prudential measures by BI to contain credit risks in the property sector5, as well as slower nominal GDP growth. 5 Bank Indonesia announced it will tighten loan-to-value ratio limits for secondary and subsequent mortgages (including for smaller homes), and expand their coverage to home offices, home shops and property-backed consumption, from 30 September 2013. Further, loan funds will only be disbursed only once the property has been constructed. Loan-to-valuation ratio requirements will remain unchanged for first home buyers at between 70 to 80 percent (depending on the size and type of property). Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 15 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 5. Inflation has picked up on higher fuel prices Headline yoy inflation Inflation dynamics over the third quarter were dominated by the effect of fuel subsidy increased to 8 percent at reform and the seasonal impact of Ramadan. The Government’s move to increase the the beginning of the third subsidized diesel price by IDR 1,000 per liter and the petrol price by IDR 2,000 per liter on quarter on the back of 22 June has led to a sharp rise in headline inflation, pushing up year-on-year inflation for the increased fuel and food next four quarters. Month-on-month inflation, however, is expected to stabilize relatively prices quickly, in line with past episodes of fuel price reform, with Bank Indonesia’s recent rate hikes and the ongoing tightening of credit conditions helping to dampen the feed-through into second-round effects and inflationary expectations. The combination of the residual effects of trade restrictions introduced in October 2012 and the rise in demand over Ramadan period caused food price inflation to pick up, with chili, onion and garlic being particularly impacted. Trade restrictions have been at least partially unwound, and food prices now appear to be on a downward trend. Higher subsidized fuel Increased fuel prices likely contributed just over half of the 3.3 percent month-on-month prices are estimated to rise in headline CPI in July (Figure 22). As a result, headline inflation has moved to 8.6 have contributed close to percent yoy in July, from 5.9 percent in June, and edged up further to 8.8 percent in August, half of mom inflation in before declining somewhat to 8.4 percent in September (Figure 23). Core consumer prices July… have picked up slightly, to 4.5 percent yoy in August, and to 4.7 percent in September. During previous fuel price increases in October 2005 and June 2008, core consumer price increases quickly reverted to their levels prior to the reforms (Figure 24). Changes in core inflation, however, have to be monitored on a longer term horizon, as higher fuel prices may feed with a lag into higher input costs. The fact that subsidized fuel prices remain well below international prices also means that higher prices are currently being artificially suppressed by the subsidy regime. Figure 22: Inflation rose sharply at the beginning of Q3 Figure 23: …causing a small uptick in core inflation driven by food and fuel prices… (inflation, percent) (inflation, month on month, percent) Subsidized 3.5 24 3.5 Other fuel price increase 3.0 Headline inflation yoy (RHS) 20 3.0 Core inflation Transportation, Communication 2.5 yoy (RHS) 16 2.5 and Finance Food inflation yoy (RHS) Food 2.0 12 2.0 CPI 1.5 8 1.5 1.0 4 1.0 0.5 0 0.5 0.0 -4 0.0 -0.5 Headline inflation mom (LHS) -8 -0.5 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations … and food prices an Along with fuel, prices of selected food items also spiked in the second quarter of 2013, additional one-third following the introduction of the Food Law, which was passed in October 2012 (Figure 25). A number of trade restrictions linked to the Food Law have now been reversed, including beef quotas now being replaced by a switching tariff depending on domestic prices, setting prices on a downward path. The Ramadan period in July-August, however, also had the usual, upward impact on prices. Increased food prices – with some items up two- to five- fold from their levels in October 2012 – contributed 1.1 percentage points to month-on- month (mom) inflation in July. Prices for these food items appear now to be on a downward path, indicating welcome relief from inflationary pressures from this source. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 16 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 24: Core inflation normalized rapidly after the Figure 25: The prices of certain foods spiked due to trade subsidized fuel price increases in 2005 and 2008 restrictions and Ramadan… (prices, index where 100=core CPI mom at month -1, months from the price (prices, index, 1 = October 2013) increase) 350 6 Ramadan 300 Jul-13 5 Onion 250 4 200 Jun-08 150 3 Garlic 100 2 Chili 50 Oct-05 0 1 Small chili -50 0 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Further inflationary The recent depreciation of the Rupiah poses risks to inflation in the short run, by driving up pressures could come the cost of imports. Depreciation in the second quarter likely contributed up to 0.5 from the second round percentage points to headline CPI. In principle, the effect of the currency depreciation on effects of the fuel price inflation is likely to be non-linear, increasing in the short run as increased import prices feed increase, the recent weakening of the Rupiah, into the CPI basket, and decreasing thereafter as the price shock drops out of the base. In and minimum wage rises light of this, further inflationary pressures are to be expected from the recent depreciation, for 2014 … and the movement of the exchange rate is one of the main risks to the baseline inflation outlook. Additional supply-side risks to inflation are also to the upside, notably from potential further increases in minimum wages for 2014 (following the large increases granted for 2013), and the possibility of second- and third round effects from the reduction in the fuel subsidy. … although the baseline Notwithstanding the above risks, Figure 26: Inflation is projected to peak in year-on- projection is for a decline the baseline outlook is for year terms in Q4 in inflation over the inflation to remain well (inflation, percent) forecast horizon anchored, consistent with a 12 general slow-down in aggregate projection demand growth. The World 10 Bank anticipates price CPI disinflation in month-on-month 8 terms over the next 3-6 months, with inflation projected to stay in BI target band 6 the 8-10 percent band through the second quarter of 2014. Core 4 Subsequently, when the subsidized fuel price hike drops out of the base, inflation is 2 projected to return to within Bank Indonesia’s target band 0 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 (Figure 26). Core inflation is expected to rise on the back of Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations moderate second-round effects of higher fuel prices and imported inflation, and then revert to lower levels, consistent with the lower growth outlook and unwinding of the second round effects of the fuel price hike. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 17 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 6. The fiscal risks from energy subsidy costs are to the fore again The fiscal deficit The ongoing slowdown in nominal GDP growth, subdued international commodity prices, through August was and nominal depreciation of the Rupiah, are impacting Indonesia’s fiscal sector. During the notably higher than in January-August 2013 period, an overall deficit of IDR 101 trillion was recorded, versus a the same period in deficit of IDR 35 trillion in the same period last year (Table 4). Revenue collection growth 2012… has slowed, recording the lowest yoy growth since 2009. Realized expenditure growth has also come down, but overall disbursement rates have shown some improvement. …due to a broad-based The first eight months of 2013 saw a broad-based moderation in yoy growth of revenue reduction in revenue collection, which reached 56 percent of its 2013 target in January-August. In particular, non- collection… oil and gas income taxes, which represent the bulk of income taxes (around 86 percent) and just under one-third of total revenues, recorded a noticeable slowdown in yoy growth (6 percent relative to a 14 percent average growth for the corresponding periods of 2010-2012). Value-added tax (VAT) collections growth has also slowed (to 13 percent relative to a 22 percent average for the corresponding period of 2010-2012). International taxes, particularly exports duties, actually contracted by 13 percent yoy, on the back of lower commodity prices which also affected non-tax revenues, both from the oil and gas and other resource sectors. Overall non-tax revenues in the first eight months of 2013 grew by only 3 percent yoy compared to a 19 percent average for the corresponding periods of 2010-2012. … whereas Budget By the end of August, about IDR 946 trillion, or 55 percent of total annual budgeted execution performance expenditure in the revised 2013 Budget, had been spent, just above the corresponding level has slightly of 54 percent in 2012. Spending growth in the first eight months of 2013 reached 14 percent improved… yoy, down from 23 percent in 2012. Energy subsidy spending accounted for just over 30 percent of spending excluding transfers, reaching 65 percent of the revised 2013 Budget allocation. Capital spending appears to have gained some traction, growing by 18 percent relative to the corresponding period last year. However, disbursements remain back-loaded, with only 32 percent of allocated capital spending for the full year realized in the first eight months, although this was an improvement on the equivalent level of 29 percent in 2012. …though the bintang As of end-June 2013, the Ministry of Finance reported that IDR 32 trillion of line ministries’ challenge remains… budgets (5 percent of total) was still on hold (such that the budget warrants are allocated a star or bintang), declining from the level at the end of April 2013 of IDR 87 trillion (or 15 percent of line ministries’ total budgets).6 These conditional approvals, which have tended to significantly impede disbursements, are due to activities requiring Parliamentary approval, incomplete supporting documents such as terms of reference (TORs), detailed costing, and Spending Responsibility Letters. …and some new To address a number of impediments to budget execution the Government has recently policies and taken steps to improve the regulatory environment. In particular, a new Government regulations have been regulation (PP 45/2013) has been issued that eliminates the requirement to reappoint introduced to address spending unit (Satker) officials each year. This measure will allow the Satkers to function budget execution from the beginning of the fiscal year, thereby accelerating spending; introduces commitment challenges controls which, alongside other benefits, will help the Ministry of Finance to monitor the amounts committed by line ministries and take early action where there are delays in implementation; allows advance procurement before the start of the fiscal year, allowing contracts to be signed earlier in the fiscal year; and provides a legal basis for the carryover of the budget to the next year for national priority activities and multiyear contracts. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has also issued a new ministerial regulation (PMK 94/2013) which includes measures to streamline budget execution. The regulation, which sets out how the budget documents are prepared and reviewed, includes provisions to: eliminate the use of budget blocks (bintang), with line ministries now being given responsibility for addressing 6 http://www.anggaran.depkeu.go.id/dja/acontent/Perkemb_blokir_24%20Juni%202013_1A.pdf Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 18 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly any conditions attached to a budget item without the need to submit documents to the Ministry of Finance for prior clearance; and involve the line ministries’ internal audit unit as verifiers of the budget document prior to its release (while the role of the internal auditors is still being resolved, the intention is that they will not create a new cause of delay in budget management). The new regulations are a positive step, but the extent to which they prove effective will depend on dissemination and implementation progress. Table 4: Moderate revenue collection was the standout feature of the Jan – Aug 2013 period, relative to previous years (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) Share (Jan - Aug) of Revised Nominal Value (Jan - Aug) Annual Budget Nominal Growth YoY (IDR trillion) (Percent) (Percent) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 A. Revenues 603 719 798 845 60.8 61.4 51.1 56.3 21.0 19.2 11.0 5.9 1. Tax Revenues o/w 448 535 615 657 60.3 60.9 52.5 57.2 15.6 19.5 14.9 6.9 Income (O&G) 34 41 51 50 61.2 62.7 64.0 66.8 -2.5 20.7 25.8 -3.5 Income (N-O&G) 197 232 256 272 64.1 63.4 51.0 58.5 13.7 18.1 10.1 6.3 Sales Tax (VAT) 137 157 204 230 51.9 52.7 52.1 54.3 20.9 15.2 29.9 12.6 Excises 43 49 62 72 73.3 72.3 63.8 68.8 18.6 13.3 26.2 16.0 Int’l Trade Taxes 16 37 33 29 71.0 79.1 59.8 59.8 31.3 131.8 -10.4 -13.0 2. Non-Tax Rev. 155 182 181 186 62.5 63.5 46.6 53.4 39.7 17.7 -0.4 2.8 NTR (O&G) 83 106 92 91 54.4 61.3 40.2 50.6 55.4 28.7 -13.2 -0.9 NTR (N-O&G) 12 14 15 16 94.5 73.7 67.1 69.2 32.6 12.7 9.4 5.5 A. Expenditures 557 678 833 946 49.4 51.3 53.8 54.8 7.1 21.8 22.9 13.6 1. Central Gov’t, o/w 348 432 533 616 44.6 47.5 49.8 51.4 4.7 23.9 23.4 15.6 Personnel 98 125 137 153 60.1 68.5 64.7 65.5 8.8 28.2 9.6 11.2 Material 45 52 63 70 40.0 36.6 38.8 34.6 21.8 16.1 20.4 11.3 Capital 27 37 51 61 28.7 26.1 29.1 32.2 -11.1 35.3 39.3 18.0 Interest Payments 58 63 66 73 54.8 58.9 56.3 64.8 -9.7 8.3 5.7 9.9 Subsidies 87 128 170 213 43.0 54.1 69.2 61.1 48.9 48.3 32.2 25.4 Energy 73 114 155 195 50.9 58.3 76.5 64.9 69.4 55.5 35.8 25.8 Fuel 43 84 106 132 47.9 64.6 77.3 66.2 167.5 96.8 26.7 24.7 Electricity 31 30 48 62 55.6 45.9 74.6 62.2 12.3 -1.8 61.0 28.2 Social 31 24 42 46 44.0 29.5 49.1 56.7 -6.2 -22.9 74.6 8.2 2. Transfers 208 246 300 330 60.4 59.7 62.7 62.4 11.2 18.2 21.9 10.0 Note: NTR denotes non-tax revenues, O&G denotes oil and gas, N-O&G denotes non-oil and gas Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 19 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 1: An update on unconditional cash transfers and the poverty rate Following the increase in subsidized fuel prices on June 22, temporary unconditional cash transfers (Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat, BLSM) have been distributed to 15.5 million households by the state owned post office (PT POS) using Social Protection Cards (Kartu Perlindungan Social, KPS). As described in the July IEQ, the BLSM is one of the four compensation packages implemented by the Government to mitigate the impact of higher fuel prices to poor and vulnerable households. The other three programs include the expansion of conditional cash transfers (Program Keluarga Harapan, PKH) and scholarships (Bantuan untuk Siswa Miskin, BSM), and the temporary increase of rice for the poor (Beras Miskin, Raskin). According to PT POS, 94 percent of the IDR 4.7 trillion allocation of the first phase has been disbursed. The undisbursed 6 percent is due mainly to difficulties in locating targeted beneficiaries. The second phase, which commenced on September 2 has reached 94 percent of the allocation (as of 1 October), indicating relatively smooth distribution. In order to correct any inaccuracies in the beneficiary lists, the Government has increased flexibility by allowing communities at the village level to verify and revise beneficiary lists through community meetings. Turning to the broader picture on poverty, on July 1, Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) announced that the national poverty rate for March 2013 was 11.4 percent. This represents a 0.6 percentage point decline from the 12.0 percent level in March 2012. The rural poverty rate (14.3 percent) remains nearly double that of urban poverty (8.4 percent), but continues to decrease faster, down from 15.1 percent and 8.8 percent the previous year, respectively. The national average poverty line was increased by 9.2 percent from IDR 248,707 per person per month to IDR 271,626, driven by increases in both food and non-food prices, across both urban and rural areas. Regional variation in poverty is high, with poverty in Maluku and Papua, for example, double the national average, at 24.0 percent, while Kalimantan has the lowest poverty rate at 6.4 percent, or around half the national average. The 0.6 percentage point decline in the poverty rate this year was roughly the same as the 0.5 percentage drop experienced between 2011 and 2012. This continues the trend of slowing poverty reduction in recent years, with the last two years seeing the smallest declines in percentage point terms in a decade, with the exception of the increase in 2006 accompanying the global food price shocks. As discussed in the March 2013 IEQ, slowing poverty reduction is not unexpected as poverty approaches 10 percent, since the remaining poor are increasingly further below the poverty line, and thus faster consumption growth is required to maintain the same pace of poverty reduction as measured by the official poverty rate. Ordinarily, this trend, along with the slower economic growth projected through 2014 and elevated inflation, would limit expectations of poverty reduction in 2014. However, the disbursement of BLSM in the second half of 2013 is likely to mitigate the upward pressure on the poverty rate. As a consequence, the likelihood of achieving the Government's RPJM target of reducing poverty to 8 to 10 percent in 2014 is unclear. However, the concurrent expansion of long-term safety net programs – in particular BSM and PKH – is an important strategy for increasing the speed of poverty reduction beyond 2014. Note: See the July 2013 IEQ for details on the 2013 compensation package Source: Ministry of Finance, BPS and PT Pos Indonesia (http://blsm.posindonesia.co.id/main.php) The World Bank Taking into account the outturn in January-August, the reduction in commodity prices, projects that the depreciation of the Rupiah, and weaker nominal GDP growth, the World Bank has revised Budget deficit in 2013 up its projection of the Budget deficit for 2013, from IDR 189 trillion in the July IEQ (2.1 will be 2.5 percent of percent of GDP) to IDR 226 trillion (2.5 percent of GDP) (Table 5). Projected revenues GDP and 2.3 percent of have been revised downwards by 1.0 percent, and projected total expenditures revised GDP in 2014 upwards by 1.4 percent (due mostly to higher projected energy subsidy spending, despite June’s subsidized fuel price increases, see Box 2). For 2014, the World Bank’s preliminary projection is for a Budget deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP, though much will clearly depend on the final features of the approved 2014 Budget. The 2014 Budget is The proposed 2014 Budget is currently under discussion in Parliament and it is expected to making its way be approved (with potential amendments) by the end of October. The projected Budget through Parliament deficit in the draft Budget was 1.5 percent of GDP, but the Finance Minister has recently announced that the latest estimate for the 2014 deficit is 2.02 percent of GDP.7 In terms of some of the main expenditure categories, personnel expenditure is proposed to increase by 19 percent relative to the 2013 revised Budget, reflecting on-going bureaucracy reform, and increases in basic salary and pension payments by 6 percent and 4 percent, respectively. The Government is implementing a flat budget policy for material expenditure, particularly for expenses relating to operational, official travel, and meetings. Capital expenditure is proposed to increase by 7 percent, implying only a modest increase in real terms following several years of very strong real capital spending growth, albeit from a low 7 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/09/17/budget-deficit-2014-estimated-reach-202- percent.html October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 20 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly base. The proposed Budget also foresees the implementation of new policies, such as the health dimension of the new National Social Security Law, and a proposal to adjust electricity tariffs for selected customers to further improve the quality of spending. As in the 2012 and 2013 Budgets, the proposed Budget includes provisions relating to crisis preparedness to grant the Government the flexibility to respond to rapidly changing macroeconomic developments. Table 5: The World Bank projects a fiscal deficit in 2013 of 2.5 percent, up from 2.1 percent in the July 2013 IEQ (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 Revised Proposed Actual Actual Budget WB Budget WB A. State Revenues and Grants 1,211 1,338 1,502 1,434 1,663 1,569 1. Tax Revenues 874 981 1,148 1,082 1,310 1,215 2. Non-Tax Revenues 331 352 349 347 351 349 B. Expenditures 1,295 1,491 1,726 1,660 1,817 1,790 1. Central Government, o/w 884 1,011 1,197 1,131 1,230 1,204 Personnel 176 198 233 228 277 268 Material 125 141 203 179 204 180 Capital 118 145 188 166 206 182 Subsidies, o/w 295 346 348 346 336 364 Fuel Subsidies 165 212 200 198 195 205 2. Transfers to the Regions 411 481 529 529 586 586 C. Primary Balance 9 -53 -112 -100 -35 -95 D. Surplus/Deficit -84 -153 -224 -226 -154 -221 as percent of GDP -1.1 -1.9 -2.4 -2.5 -1.5 -2.3 E. Net Financing 131 175 224 n.a. 154 n.a. 1. Domestic Financing 149 199 241 n.a. 173 n.a. 2. Foreign Financing -18 -23 -17 n.a. -19 n.a. Key Economic Assumptions Economic growth (percent) 6.5 6.2 6.3 5.6 6.4 5.3 CPI (yoy, percent) 3.8 4.3 7.2 9.8 4.5 4.4 Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 8,779 9,384 9,600 10,400 9,750 11,400 Crude oil price (USD/barrel) 112 113 108 106 106 105 Oil production ('000 barrels/day) 899 861 840 840 870 870 Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations The depreciation of the The depreciation of the Rupiah through September places upward pressure on a range of Rupiah has placed expenditures, particularly fuel subsidy spending (see Box 2). As a result of the weaker renewed upward Rupiah, fuel subsidy spending for 2013 is likely to increase by IDR 21 trillion relative to the pressure on subsidy projection in the July IEQ. Hence, in the baseline scenario, the projected net saving for 2013 costs (including spending on BLSM and compensation programs) from the June 2013 increase in subsidized fuel prices of IDR 13.1 trillion will not be realized, although the subsidy costs would be even higher without this price adjustment. This development highlights the fiscal risks from the current system of fixed subsidies, subjected to ad hoc periodic adjustments, from movements in the exchange rate or oil price. It also stresses the urgency and importance of pushing ahead with further reforms to energy subsidies, such as a move to a more rule-based approach, to make sustained progress in raising the quality of public spending. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 21 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 2: The fiscal impact of changes in the Rupiah exchange rate and oil prices Simulations can be used to examine the direct risks to the budget deficit from shifts in the exchange rate and international oil prices. For example, a 10 percent weaker Rupiah against the US dollar compared with the World Bank’s base case assumptions is estimated to lead directly to a roughly 0.7 percentage point of GDP increase in the fiscal deficit in both 2013 and 2014, to 3.2 percent and 3.0 percent respectively. This clearly assumes that there are no adjustments in other spending levels in response, which would likely be the case given the 3 percent of GDP national deficit rule. A 10 percent increase in oil prices relative to the baseline is projected to add roughly 0.3-0.4 percentage points of GDP to the baseline fiscal deficit. The significant estimated sensitivity of the fiscal deficit to both the exchange rate and oil prices comes mainly from the expenditure side, due primarily to an increase in energy subsidy costs, in intergovernmental transfers to the regions from shared revenue from oil and gas, and an increase in spending on education (given the mandate that education spending be 20 percent of total spending). Although the impact on revenues is not as significant as for expenditures, projected nominal revenues are negatively impacted; changes in exchange rates have an effect on VAT and customs collection (both imports and exports duties), while changes in oil prices affect revenues through income taxes from oil and gas, VAT (through the sensitivity of imports to oil price changes, and though the increase in prices and resulting changes in private consumption), customs duties (both imports and exports duties), and non-tax revenues from natural resources. These simulation results should be treated as indicative only. In particular they focus on the first-round direct fiscal impacts and abstract from the indirect impacts through broader economic effects of the shocks. In addition, they require a number of assumptions (due to data and statistical limitations), and do not take into account the policy reaction function to such shocks, for example, in terms of cutting other spending or moving forward with other fiscal reforms. Table 6: The direct impact of a 10 percent Rupiah depreciation or increase in the oil price is an increase in the Budget deficit of at least 0.4 percentage points of GDP (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) Simulation 1 Simulation 2: Baseline Rupiah Depreciation Increase in Oil Price 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 Revenues 1,434 1,569 1,431 1,565 1,460 1,592 Expenditures 1,660 1,790 1,721 1,860 1,716 1,853 Energy subsidies 297 312 342 362 335 355 Fuel 198 205 234 246 231 243 Electricity 100 107 108 116 105 112 Transfer to region 529 586 536 594 533 591 20% additional expenditures on education 10 12 9 10 Surplus/Deficit -226 -221 -290 -295 -256 -261 as percent of GDP -2.5 -2.3 -3.2 -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 Key Economic Assumptions Exchange Rate (IDR/USD) 10,400 11,400 11,440 12,540 10,400 11,400 Crude Oil Price (USD/barrel) 106 105 106 105 117 115 Source: World Bank staff calculations Gross debt financing is Following the revised 2013 Budget and IDR 70.9 trillion increase in the projected deficit, broadly on track gross debt financing needs for 2013 increased by IDR 51.4 trillion relative to the original 2013 target, to IDR 330.8 trillion, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). Debt issuance is broadly on track, with 25 percent of the revised debt target for 2013 remaining to be met at the start of the final quarter, and issuance conditions have improved markedly since June, with IDR 104.9 trillion in debt issued since the beginning of July, of which IDR 76 trillion constitutes debt with a maturity of longer than one year.8 8 See Directorate General of Debt Management, September 2013 Investor Meeting Presentation, available online. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 22 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 7. Policy settings and ongoing reform progress can play a key role as external balances adjust External balance In the base case, the pace of Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to moderate and then developments pose the stabilize at a level which is still solid but more commensurate with a more sustainable greatest near-term risk current account deficit under tighter global liquidity conditions. Economic developments to growth… and policy settings, notably moderating domestic demand growth, the June increase in subsidized fuel prices, the subsequent tightening in monetary policy, and the continued depreciation of the Rupiah, are conducive to maintaining macroeconomic stability, a prerequisite for growth and development. The key risk to this baseline scenario is that the adjustments now underway, and projected in the base case to continue, are overtaken by a significant increase in external financing strains, for example due to significant further weakening in key export commodity prices or net inward investment dynamics. This would require a more rapid adjustment via further significant depreciation in the Rupiah, placing pressure on reserves, and requiring monetary policy tightening to stabilize Indonesia’s external balances, denting confidence and further reducing growth (see Box 3 for a discussion of growth sensitivities via investment impacts). …placing a premium Indonesia’s fiscal and monetary policy settings will continue to play a key role in facilitating on continued the adjustments now taking place and in minimizing associated risks. There are, however, macroeconomic policy trade-offs between the objectives of restraining inflation, supporting growth and adjusting flexibility to facilitate the current account deficit to the tighter financing environment. Monetary policy faces the near-term challenge of calibrating interest and exchange rates so as to guard against rising inflationary adjustment… pressures as cost pressures rise (such as from the pass-through of the weaker currency or wage increases) while facilitating improvements in the external balances, and without unduly crimping economic growth and weakening public and private sector balance sheets. With the 2014 Budget under discussion with Parliament, fiscal policy faces the challenge of slower revenue growth and higher nominal debt-financing costs, raising the importance of lifting further the quality of spending and of revenue mobilization. Maintaining a prudent overall fiscal stance, coordinated with the tightening in monetary policy, can help to meet this challenge. Building on the June increase in subsidized fuel prices, further reforms to the current system of inefficient, distortionary energy subsidies could help to free up spending for key development expenditures such as infrastructure and health, as well as limiting the fiscal risks they generate to fluctuations in the exchange rate or shocks to global oil prices. …reducing Given the uncertainties generated by moderating growth momentum, and volatile but uncertainties through generally tightening external financing conditions, maintaining clear communication around communication and policy changes and a strong focus on implementation can help to support confidence. Policy contingency also has a role to play in mitigating the negative impacts of particularly adverse scenarios, planning… should tail risks materialize. The Government has put considerable efforts into enhancing its crisis preparedness in recent years. Monitoring and response coordination mechanisms are in place to facilitate a flexible response to any major market dislocations. The Government has contingent fiscal financing equivalent to approximately USD 5 billion to draw on in the event of a significant deterioration in financing conditions, while Bank Indonesia has recently made efforts to secure additional bilateral US Dollar swap lines. …and continuing to The recent pressures on the external balances and growth serve as a reminder of the need drive progress on for further efforts to improve the diversification of exports and to lift the competitiveness of reforms to lift the economy in order to sustain a more rapid pace of growth and development. The Indonesia’s sustainable depreciation of the Rupiah should boost competitiveness in the short-term, but this will only growth rate prove lasting if not eroded by domestic cost pressures, such as from wage increases, and if policies and investments are put in place to enhance supply-side flexibility. Measures to increase competitiveness and improve the regulatory environment can thus assist not only to alleviate near-term external funding pressures by stimulating exports and encouraging foreign direct investment, but also help to lift longer-term employment and economic growth. The Government’s policy package, announced on August 23 contains measures which aim to address some of these issues; see Section B.1. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 23 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 3: The sensitivity of GDP growth to investment Accounting for around 33 per cent of GDP and having been a Figure 27: Forecast GDP growth is sensitive to the outlook key contributor to Indonesia’s growth performance in recent for investment years, investment is at the heart of the overall economic (GDP growth, year on year, percent) outlook. The World Bank base case for investment assumes 7.0 that investment growth remains subdued over the rest of 2013 and into 2014. This projection is predicated on a moderation in corporate profits and tighter financing conditions. Investment 6.5 may also face headwinds as the political cycle intensifies ahead of national elections in 2014, and from ongoing regulatory and 6.0 policy uncertainties. High 5.5 Baseline This base case for investment, however, is subject to significant Low risks, with investment likely to be sensitive to the future Very low trajectory of domestic monetary policy, global commodity 5.0 prices, the exchange rate, external financing conditions, and domestic credit conditions. For example, further tightening in 4.5 domestic monetary policy will act to dampen investment growth, with the IMF (2012) finding that a 1 percent higher 4.0 real interest rate leads to a 0.2 percent decline in investment growth. However, this analysis also finds that it is actually the volatility in short-run interest rates that is the most significant factor impacting investment in Indonesia, followed by Note: The “high” and “low” trajectories assume investment growth exchange rate volatility. As a result, a continuation of recent is 1 percentage point higher and lower than the 2014 baseline. The financial and currency market volatility has the potential to “very low” scenario assumes that investment is 2 percentage points weigh more significantly on investment. Further falls in the lower than the baseline in 2014, a deceleration comparable to that prices of Indonesia’s principal commodity exports, leading to a seen in the 2008/9 global financial crisis Source: BPS; World Bank staff projections further decline in Indonesia’s terms of trade, and possible policy responses necessitated by adverse developments in the external balances, will also act both to reduce profitability and retained earnings, and the cost and availability of investment financing. The outlook for GDP growth in 2014 is sensitive to the trajectory of investment (Figure 27). A 1 percentage point deviation in investment growth from the baseline forecast in 2014 would lead to around a 0.3 percentage point deviation in GDP growth in 2014, taking annual growth up to approximately 5.6 percent (up from baseline growth of 5.3 percent), or down close to 5.0 per cent. Under a more adverse scenario, where investment weakens as much as it did in the global financial crisis (around 2 percentage points lower than the baseline), then GDP growth for 2014 would be around 0.6 percentage points lower, at around 4.7 percent (Figure 27). Note: See IMF (2012) Selected Issues Paper, September 2012, IMF Country Report No. 12/278 October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 24 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly B. Some recent developments in Indonesia’s economy 1. The Government’s August policy package Following market As discussed in Part A, financial market pressures on Indonesia intensified in mid-August, pressures, the following the release of second quarter balance of payments statistics that showed a wider Government than expected current account deficit, against the backdrop of a reduction in investor announced a policy appetite for emerging market assets globally. In response to this, the Government of package in August… Indonesia announced a policy package (“the package”) on 23 August, in order to address Indonesia’s external imbalances, by boosting exports and restraining imports, promoting inbound investment to boost supply side capacity and raise productivity, while supporting employment during a likely slowing in the pace of economic growth in the near-term. This section provides a brief overview of the measures that have been announced. An outline of the parallel policy responses announced by Bank Indonesia and OJK is provided in the Part A discussion. …aimed at The policy package is focused on economic stabilization and structural reforms and has four stabilization and pillars. First, supporting foreign direct investment by removing impediments to progressing structural reforms, with key strategic investment projects (“de-bottlenecking”), simplifying licensing organized around four requirements, and expediting the revision of the negative investment list. Second, measures pillars aimed at improving the current account balance, by providing tax breaks for export-oriented firms, raising taxes on some luxury goods imports, and raising domestically produced biodiesel requirements in the fuel mix (to help dampen fuel imports). Third, measures aimed at maintaining employment growth, including tax breaks for labor-intensive sectors, relaxation of some restrictions in bounded zones, and revisions to the minimum wage- setting process. Fourth, measures to counter inflation, mainly by replacing import restrictions with price-based mechanisms for beef and horticultural products. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 25 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly a. Measures to support foreign direct investment A revised negative Initial implementation of the investment-support measures has focused on an accelerated investment list (DNI) revision of the Revised Negative Investment List (Daftar Negatif Investasi, DNI), which has been announced… stipulates limits to foreign investment across Indonesia’s business sectors. Revisions to the DNI have been discussed by the Executive and consultations with the private sector have been underway since the earlier part of 2013. …informed by a The Government has announced that the revision of DNI will be based on a number of number of guiding guiding principles. First, the revised DNI should be “investor-friendly”, as far as allowed by principles existing laws, since these limit Presidential regulation prerogative. For example, the Law on Horticulture limits foreign equity in horticulture businesses to 30 percent, a restriction which will be incorporated in the forthcoming DNI. Second, changes to the DNI proposed by Ministries which have the effect of increasing restrictions should not be accepted. Third, industrial classifications are to be simplified, and the regulatory oversight of industries is to be harmonized, such that duplication is avoided (for example, if a business sector is currently regulated by two ministries, this should be reduced to just one ministry, with the least restrictive of the overlapping regulations selected). The principles informing the revised DNI suggest that a revised list would continue to incorporate the restrictions on foreign equity investment which apply, through existing law, in the horticulture sector, but relax foreign equity limits in a handful of other sectors, notably tourism, pharmacy, industry and transport. An “investor-friendly” The new DNI has not yet been published and applied, and this delay is unfortunate, as it revised DNI would would bring with it more certainty around foreign participation limits across sectors. In help to reduce general, the emphasis under the guidelines for the accelerated revision is for a more open regulatory uncertainty, foreign investment framework. In principle, this would be positive for foreign investment. even as considerable In addition to the issuance and application of a revised DNI, there continues to be room for challenges remain, improvement in the overall regulatory environment for foreign investment. A clearer both around the revision procedure for investment limits and communication strategy could help increase the Government’s broader clarity and transparency of policy. In addition, ensuring that the DNI serves as the single strategy… comprehensive list of investment restrictions would be desirable, as in the past the DNI has been superseded by new restrictions on investment introduced in sectoral laws, such as in horticulture and the postal law, adding complexity to the regulatory environment. …and red tape in Additional steps are also being taken to cut red tape, by improving the effectiveness of investment, with work integrated one-stop services for investment-related procedures (Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu underway to simplify di Bidang Penanaman Modal, PTSP), and reducing the types of licenses relating to investment licensing… activities. As a first step, the Government will focus on simplifying licenses in the strategically important oil and gas sector, reducing the current sixty-nine types of licenses for oil and gas investments to eight licensing groups. The Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs and Presidential Working Unit for Supervision and Management of Development (Unit Kerja Presiden Bidang Pengawasan dan Pengendalian Pembangunan,UKP4) are working on an action plan to implement this reform within a year. …which could be An increased emphasis on simplifying the investment licensing system is a welcome step, as embedded in a the current system is highly complex, often requiring investors to obtain licenses and broader, cross-sector authorizations from multiple ministries and agencies. Yet rather than taking an ad hoc reform plan for the approach to license simplification for each sector – beginning with oil and gas – it may regulatory environment ultimately be more efficient to plan, communicate and implement licensing requirement and process changes within the broader context of a reform plan to improve the regulatory environment for business across all sectors. This should include sectors which tend to have smaller investors than the oil and gas sector, who may find complex regulations more of an impediment than the generally large-scale companies operating in the oil and gas industry. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 26 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly b. Measures to improve the current account deficit and maintain Rupiah stability Trade measures are Downward pressure on the current account balance has stemmed from a combination of focused on supporting weakening export revenues and generally strong import demand, as discussed in Part A. The exports… announced package seeks, first, to support exports (and employment as discussed below) by providing tax deductions for labor-intensive sectors (textiles, footwear, furniture, children’s toys and confectionary), and reducing corporate income taxes by 25-50 percent of total income payable, depending on the degree of export-orientation. The tax break is temporary, applying for the remainder of the tax year at the time of the implementing regulation (i.e. from September-December 2013), and also allows for tax payments to be delayed without penalty for up to three months. As is common with such incentives it can be difficult to assess ex ante their impacts, and their application, and fiscal costs, should be as transparent as possible. Second, the package aims to boost mineral exports by allowing approved exporters to submit revisions to their annual 2013 work plan in order to increase their export volume for 2013. In a press release on 29 August, the Vice Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources emphasized that the measures announced in the package apply only until January 2014. The ban on raw mineral ore exports (effective January 2014) therefore still appears likely to be implemented. …and reducing certain Measures to discourage import demand center on fuel imports and luxury consumer goods. categories of imports First, biodiesel blending requirements for domestic fuels are being increased, with the aim of reducing reliance on imported fossil fuel-based diesel. This measure is longer-term in nature, with the implementing regulation stipulating annual increases in biodiesel in the fuel mix through 2025, tailored by user group. The implementation challenges, and broader impacts of such a policy, for example on the environment and agriculture sector, will be important to assess. It is not yet certain how quickly these measures will be implemented or what their ultimate impact will be on the current account deficit, given their potential to induce substitution away from palm oil exports. Second, taxes on selected luxury goods, such as imported luxury cars and other high-end branded consumer goods, are increased 25-50 percent. This measure, while symbolic, is unlikely to have a material impact on overall import demand, given that consumer goods account for less than 10 percent of total imports. As part of the implementing regulation, taxes on some categories of goods are also being reduced, which may also offset some of the overall impact of this measure on imported goods demand. c. Measures to support employment Focus on labor- In addition to tax breaks for labor-intensive firms, described above, employment support intensive industries in measures in the package are essentially two-fold. First, regulations pertaining to bounded the bounded zones… zones are relaxed, for example allowing firms in these areas to sell a higher proportion of their output domestically (up from 25 to 50 percent), and to make more use of sub- contracting. Bounded zones are where labor-intensive, light manufacturing factories are overwhelmingly located, and these receive incentives in exchange for exporting the bulk of their output. Although the measures announced as part of the August package may prove positive for employment, international experience suggests that measures which open the domestic market to firms in bounded zones may also bring additional regulatory challenges and costs, and affect firm incentives. For example, with firms potentially subject to different tax requirements on different portions of their output, this could potentially reduce incentives for firms to export. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 27 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and on minimum Second, changes are proposed to the mechanism for setting provincial minimum wages wage-setting (Upah Minimum Provinsi, UMP) to prevent layoffs caused by excessive increases in minimum wages. The reform proposal outlines a mechanism for achieving a more certain, simple, and fair minimum wage setting process, aiming to make employers, workers and job seekers better off, by promoting a more evidence-based and less politicized wage-setting process, leading to more predictable annual increases, and by introducing improvements in the governance structure that reduce the scope for discretionary decision making.9 Reform of the Reform of the minimum wage-setting process is complex. Negotiations and final agreements minimum wage take place at the province and sectoral level (and often at the district and sub-sector level), negotiation process making communication and compliance with new formula-based adjustments more difficult. and implementation is More generally, ensuring the compliance of firms and employers to minimum wage complex… regulations (whether revised or not) is not easy, and requires monitoring and coordination at the central level, between the Ministry of Manpower and relevant ministries for effective implementation, as well as between central and local governments and relevant actors (District Governors and Wage Councils). …but could have a The formula-based adjustment, if implemented, should make future minimum wage positive labor market increases more predictable, reflect more closely local labor market developments, and be impact better able to adjust to shocks. Improved governance and enforcement of stricter monitoring policies should also improve compliance with the system. If applied appropriately, this reform therefore has the potential to improve certainty, simplicity and transparency in minimum-wage setting, supporting equity and balancing trade-offs in the setting of minimum wages, which is a vital price for many workers and businesses, both directly, and indirectly through its impact on wage-setting across the economy. d. Measures to reduce inflation Quantitative import Reductions in luxury sales taxes for some products, as mentioned above, as well as the restrictions on some elimination of VAT on educational and religious books, will cut the costs of these products. foods are being But the small share of these products in the consumer price index limits the impact of these replaced by price- measures on the general price level. In contrast, trade restrictions imposed in 2012 had a based mechanisms very marked impact on food inflation in the first half of 2013, before being partially unwound. As part of the policy package, additional steps are being taken to shift from restricting import quantity to managing the difference between the domestic and international prices of beef and horticultural products, which should improve transparency and somewhat reduce the risks of sharp price increases due to a lack of imported supplies. Subsequent to the announcement of the policy package, there have also been some additional moves towards relaxing trade restrictions, notably on soybeans, with the scrapping of import permits and (temporary) elimination of a 5 percent tariff. However, given the challenges in coordinating policy across agencies, it remains to be seen whether the revised policy stance on imports of these products can be implemented effectively. 9 See the December 2012 edition of the IEQ for more details on the previous minimum wage negotiation round and system. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 28 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly e. Assessing the policy package Achieving an optimal There is no off-the-shelf set of optimal policies for reacting to deterioration in market policy response to conditions and shifting economic conditions. Rather, Indonesia’s policymakers face complex shifting economic challenges, though with some common aspects to those in other emerging market conditions, and when economies such as Brazil and India (where external financing conditions have also tightened, faced by volatile and growth has slowed). While there may be many potential policy levers, there are also markets, is complex implementation costs and potential trade-offs to consider, as well as the overall communication strategy. For example, maintaining strong employment and wage growth is clearly desirable, but introducing measures to support employment which stimulate the economy can go against the moderation in overall demand growth which may be necessary to address the current account deficit. Policy interventions may also impede other adjustments, such as in key relative prices, which can help maintain domestic and external balances, and introduce additional uncertainty over the regulatory environment. The Government’s In light of the current challenges faced by the Indonesian economy, the policies announced policy package appears by the Government seem well-focused at the micro-level. As always, the timing and nature broadly positive for the of the implementation of the announced measures will be crucial in determining how economy and can be effective they are ultimately in achieving their goals. For instance, the regulations in respect further built upon… of the negative list are yet to be finalized some six weeks since the package was announced. The policy package should also be evaluated from the perspective of Indonesia’s broader strategy to lift the sustainable pace of economic growth and development over the medium- term. In this context, the policy package should be seen as part of an ongoing process of policy reform and implementation, which can be built on further. …with additional Given the pressure on Indonesia’s external balances and consequent need to lift “quick wins” in the competitiveness, additional “quick wins” in the trade arena could be explored, notably in trade arena… trade facilitation, for example by improving risk management and pre-clearance procedures to reduce import dwell time (see the following Section). …and maintaining To build on the August policy package in the fiscal policy arena, a very positive policy signal, progress on fiscal which would help the overall quality of spending, would be progress on further energy sector reforms subsidy reforms, such as moving towards a more predictable and transparent fuel price adjustment mechanism, combined with deepening and expansion of the social protection framework. In addition, the Government could proactively enhance its preparedness for slower growth by putting in place a systematic monitoring and response mechanism to provide social protection in a targeted and effective manner. It will be important to ensure that the fiscal stance, as outlined in the 2014 Budget under consideration, remains prudent and coordinated with monetary policy. A big push on revenue administration can support this by limiting debt financing needs, consolidating the strengthening in the public balance sheets which Indonesia has already achieved, while further improvements in budget execution can help to support growth. While some of these steps may seem like longer-term measures, they can have a positive near-term impact by signaling the direction of Indonesia’s policy and growth trajectory. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 29 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2. Enhancing connectivity through improved port performance Improvements in As highlighted in the Government’s Master Plan for the Acceleration and Expansion of international Indonesia’s Economic Development (MP3EI), poor connectivity is well-recognized as one connectivity, such as of the major impediments to growth in Indonesia, undermining the country’s development through reducing dwell agenda. Capacity constraints in connectivity infrastructure and weaknesses in institutional times at major ports arrangements continue to affect Indonesia’s logistics performance adversely, pushing up such as Tanjung Priok, costs and reducing export competitiveness. Poor connectivity also undermines efforts to can play a crucial role attract investment in manufacturing process activities, as transport costs of imported in supporting export materials become more expensive. and investment… Efforts to improve Indonesia’s international connectivity performance therefore have a crucial role to play in increasing the country’s export competitiveness and its attractiveness for long-term investment, both of which are policy areas under particular focus in light of the recent deterioration in Indonesia’s external balances. This section examines one of the key, practical challenges to improving Indonesia’s international connectivity – reducing dwell times at Indonesia’s major international container port, Tanjung Priok. …in enhancing the Improvements in international connectivity can support the ability of Indonesian firms to long-term move up the value chain. Indonesia’s sizeable potential for growing its manufacturing sector competitiveness of and international trade is well-known, but realizing this potential faces a number of Indonesia’s challenges. Most Indonesian manufacturing firms currently engage mainly in basic manufacturing sector processing activities, and consequently operate in low positions in regional and global value through moving up chains. For Indonesian industry to move up value chains, thus increasing the value-added of value chains… its output and generating more high quality jobs, wide-ranging policy and infrastructure improvements will be required, including significant reforms to the business environment, labor regulations, access to finance, innovation and better connectivity. Not all of these factors can be addressed overnight. However, in the short and medium term, the competitiveness of Indonesian firms would benefit significantly from being able to access quality international inputs at world prices. …and facilitating Better international connectivity can also help to deliver improvements in productivity and productivity growth growth over the long run. Globally, declining unit costs for transport and information through technology technology are reducing the cost of managing distant activities. As a consequence, transfers via access to multinational manufacturing companies have fragmented their value chains and perform imported inputs production stages in different countries, based on their endowments and comparative advantage. In the long run, participating in these global production networks facilitates technology transfers which, in turn, will likely lead to increased productivity and growth, and to an increase in demand for domestic inputs as well.10 Thus, ensuring that the process for importing goods is as efficient as possible is crucial for Indonesia’s long-run development. a. Improved port performance: the key to unlocking trade Transport and trade Currently, Indonesia compares poorly to other developing Asian countries on transport and facilitation issues are logistics measures such as cost, efficiency, and quality, including infrastructure, customs, and some of the biggest the competence of the logistics industry. (Figure 28). Under-investment in ports and roads constraints to traders infrastructure in Indonesia has contributed to serious congestion problems and hence to in Indonesia Indonesia’s relatively poor logistics performance. While improving physical infrastructure is crucial, this is a longer-term endeavor, leaving performance improvements as the key short- term measure for alleviating capacity constraints. This is the case at Tanjung Priok port, Indonesia’s main trade gateway, handling over two-thirds of the country’s entire international trade. Tanjung Priok has long reached full capacity, and given that the new international container terminal is not scheduled to be operational until 2018, the Government is focusing on steps to improve port efficiency. 10For an overview of recent value-added trade statistics that show the importance of intermediate imports for Indonesia’s manufactured exports, see the March 2013 edition of the IEQ. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 30 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Port performance is As gateways to the global markets, ports serve as a critical key nodes and principal one of the most critical interchange points for domestic and international freight movements. Ports are where most areas of trade trade transactions take place and, therefore, where most of the delays occur. On trade facilitation reform… corridors, at least 50 percent of delays happen at the port of entry. …with port dwell time Dwell time is defined as the elapsed time that cargo spends within the port limits, from the a particularly moment it is unloaded from the vessel and is on the ground until it leaves the port premises important element of by road or rail. Lowering dwell times allow ports to increase volume, revenue and foster port performance competition with other similar ports in the country or regionally. Dwell time figures are commonly used to attract shipping lines and cargo traffic to a port, giving port authorities and container terminal operators strong incentives to improve this performance indicator. Long dwell times For goods that are intermediate products in a supply chain, on-time delivery is valuable. increase overall trade Unreliability and uncertainty bring costs that can potentially discourage investments, increase costs, impacting inventories and associated storage costs, dampen the scale expansion of an enterprise and productive activities, dissuade the start of new export initiatives. Delays also dramatically affect terminal capacity, especially for export performance and investment needs, which in turn increases cost and results in even more and re-export-oriented uncertainty, forming a vicious cycle. Lastly, for ports located in dense urban areas, it is industries essential to maintain the flow of goods and traffic, as episodes of congestion and surges in dwell time can be extremely disruptive for trade and the port-city environment. Dwell time for imports A focus on improving container dwell times for imports (i.e. inbound containers) is generally in particular is vital for appropriate in developing countries such as Indonesia. For many countries the aggregate port performance as volume of exports is often lower than that of imports but, more importantly, the dwell time imports often involve for outbound containers is usually low (on average one or two days). Imports involve most greater costs and time of the border controls, and incur greater costs and time penalties than exports. In any case, delays than exports both directions of trade use the same service providers, so an improvement in the quality of these services benefits all traders. Figure 28: Indonesia currently lags its Asian peers in the Figure 29: …and container dwell times at its most cost and speed of logistics… important port, Tanjung Priok, have been increasing (import lead time, days, and container charges, US Dollar) (average import dwell time, days) Lead time for imports for ports/airports, median case (days) (LHS) 10.5 Avg charge (US$/km) to import 40-foot container (RHS) 8 7.3 8 9.5 6.4 5.9 5.7 8.5 5.3 6 6 3.6 7.5 3.4 3.4 4 2.9 4 6.5 2 2 5.5 0 0 4.5 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Source: Logistics Performance Indicators 2012, World Bank Source: Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) b. Buckling under the pressure to keep up Dwell time at Tanjung According to the most recent estimates, the average import container dwell time at Tanjung Priok has almost Priok has almost doubled from 5.2 days in January 2011 to 10.1 days in August 2013 (Figure doubled in the last two 29). To understand the reasons behind this rapid lengthening in the time needed to clear and years remove containers from the port, it is necessary to have a closer look into the components of dwell time. Import containers’ dwell time can be broken into three distinct stages that O c t ob e r 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 31 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly correspond to different processes, different responsibilities and agency relationships (Figure 30). The upstream component comprises the time between the arrival of the ship and the submission of the import declaration to Customs. The customs clearance segment corresponds to the elapsed time from the submission of the import declaration until the clearance is obtained. The downstream component spans from the receipt of customs clearance until leaving the port premises, in this case, the gates of the Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT). The import processes by phase are outlined in Figure 31. Figure 30: Dwell time components and key stakeholders Dwell Time CUSTOMS UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM Components CLEARANCE Key Submission of Import Customs Ship Arrival Exit Milestones Declaration Clearance  Shipping Line and agents  Consignees/Freight  Consignees and their  Consignees/Freight Forwarder/Broker Freight Forwarder Forwarder/Broker  Customs  Customs Key  Port Authority  Other Border Control  Port Terminal Stakeholders  Port Terminal Agencies  Truckers or rail operators  Customs  Banks  Other Border Control Agencies Source: World Bank Figure 31: Import processes at Tanjung Priok Source: World Bank based on interview, 2010 c. Where are the main challenges? The main dwell time Contrary to widespread perceptions of poor performance of Customs Clearances and abuses delays occur in the of port facilities by importers, a recent study shows that 58 percent of the average dwell time upstream stage… occurs in the upstream (pre-customs) stage (Figure 32). Although many sources of delay can be seen throughout the import process, focusing on efficiency gains in the upstream component could therefore have a significant impact on the overall dwell time average of Tanjung Priok. Major sources of delays in the upstream component are the inefficiency of the 24/7 system, delays in the submissions of import declarations, and the underperformance of the Indonesian National Single Window (INSW). O c t ob e r 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 32 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 32: The upstream stage poses the key challenge for Figure 33: Mismatch between container arrivals and overall dwell times import declarations point to 24/7 system challenges (dwell time, days) (percentage, days) Upstream Customs Clearance Downstream Containers Import Declaration Submissions 7 25 22 6 20 1.9 19 19 1.2 20 1.1 1.2 5 18 1.2 15 13 18 4 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.1 16 10 13 13 3 1.1 11 7 11 2 5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.3 0 2.5 1 0 0 October July August January February 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 Note: Dwell time disaggregation data available only through Source: JICT and DG Customs, May 2012 February 2012 Source: JICT and DG Customs …attributable to gaps While port operations are nominally “24/7” (i.e. port services, including customs, banks, the in the 24/7 system… terminal, truckers, freight forwards, customs brokers and warehouses, operate outside of normal business hours and on weekends), in practice timing gaps currently lengthen upstream dwell times. A large percentage of vessels arrive on Saturdays and Sundays, averaging 38 percent of the total of containers that arrive in one week (Monday through to Sunday). Most of the freight forwarders, shipping-line companies and banks do not work over the weekend or after business hours, pushing back the submission of the Customs import declaration (PIB) until the following Monday, and delaying the start of the clearance process. Thus, while the number of containers arriving at the weekend is higher per day than during the week, the number of submissions for Customs clearance is lower per day over the weekend (Figure 33). Customs services are also only available on request during weekends or after business hours, adding an extra step if the importer wants to clear goods over the weekend. …significant delays in The delays in the submission of import declarations can be traced back to lags in the the submission of submission of the manifest to Customs from vessels coming from a trans-shipment in import declarations… Singapore or Malaysia. These routes sometimes have very few hours to consolidate the manifest, thus this information is delivered only a few hours before a vessel docks in Tanjung Priok and sometimes even after the vessel has already docked. The manifest information is needed to submit the import declaration, and thus delays in obtaining this information impacts the time when the Customs clearance process starts. …limited usage of the Based on the importer’s information, the type of goods being imported, the country of priority risk channel… origin, the tax profile of the company and other factors, Customs assigns one of five risk categories available (the standard green, yellow and red plus two additional categories for pre-approved importers). Depending on the risk channel assigned, the importer will obtain a different treatment for Customs clearance, thus determining the length of the stay in the port from there on. The priority risk channel (MITA Prioritas) has a relative short dwell (an average of 4 days) but this channel only accounts for 16 percent of the containers and comprises a small group of only 105 importers. Importers in this risk channel are allowed deferred payments for Customs duties and taxes, and they do not need to submit the manifest number in the import declaration, allowing the earlier submission of the import declaration than in other channels. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 33 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and the The INSW is a limited space for notifications and information on the status of the processes underperformance of in different government agencies. Customs clearance and other border agency document the Indonesian requirements function in separate systems and are not integrated into one seamless process. National Single On well-functioning national single windows, users submit the information required by Window (INSW) several agencies in a single entry, with a single sign-on, including payments. Such a system reduces physical interactions and paper-based transactions. Currently, however, payment processes need to be done separately for all government agencies and port institutions, including payment of import duties, taxes, agencies’ fees, terminal operator charges and others. In addition, the Quarantine Agency does not have access to the information on the arrival of the vessel. An estimated 15 percent of all import containers require quarantine documentation and approvals. Some imports also require entry permits and unloading permits so, in the absence of pre-arrival information, the work performed by the Quarantine Agency relies heavily on the importer. d. A number of important steps have already been taken to address the situation… Despite the increase in A number of measures have already been put in place to tackle the increase in dwell time. average dwell time over For example, cash payments on container terminal premises have been abolished and the past year, the replaced with ATM transactions. Although not yet optimal, reducing cash transactions is a container terminal first step in reducing delays in the downstream component. Exchange rate publication has operators and the been shifted from Mondays to Wednesdays, allowing importers to submit their import Government have had declarations before the weekend with the most up-to-date information. The previous some success in publication of the exchange rate on Monday provided another reason to delay the remedying the submission of the import declaration. situation The i-Care system (integrated cargo release) was recently launched in Tanjung Priok to integrate all services in the downstream component, aiming to eliminate face-to-face interactions between truck drivers and Customs officials at the gate. A pilot was launched in TPK Koja in November 2012 and it is also integrated with the INSW. The Government has also set up an Integrated Physical Inspection Facility (TPFT), allowing Customs, Quarantine and BPOM to conduct inspections at the same time, reducing the movement of containers and allowing for faster physical inspection times in the yellow and red channels. The TPFT was developed in conjunction with Pelindo II (the state-owned company operating Tanjung Priok) and all the government agencies and began operations in February 2013. This initiative should help to reduce the average dwell time of containers arriving in the yellow and red channels. e. …and a number of further practical measures have been identified Further regulatory Beyond the above steps, further reducing dwell times requires cooperation amongst all reforms and procedural stakeholders, including Customs, Pelindo II, container terminal operators, the association of improvements can shippers, the association of importers, banks and other government agencies based at the reduce upstream port. Multiple discussions at both the technical and political level, and consultations with processing times… academia and development partners have taken place to identify additional available measures which could reduce the upstream component of dwell time. …including increasing Establishing clear, reasonable, and transparent criteria for more importers to join the MITA the number of Priority Customs channel, in consultation with key stakeholders, will help reduce average importers in the MITA dwell times. An assessment by DG Customs on the options to increase the number of Priority lane… MITA Priority importers is therefore an important step to facilitate eligible importers to access this higher speed channel. …allowing for more Adopting more flexible procedures that can occur in parallel, instead of sequenced steps, parallel processes to could potentially help to reduce times for the pre-clearance component. For example, take place during the payment could be allowed before the Customs clearance, but after the submission of the Customs clearance import declaration. Currently, the importer has to pay all duties and taxes to Customs before component… starting the clearance process. In addition to this parallel process, Customs could explore October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 34 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly giving an exception to authorized operators, like traders of large, trustworthy freight forwarders, to have a direct account with Customs, allowing direct debits or deferred payments. Parallel processes that would allow the clearance process to start while simultaneously matching the information on the contents of the containers would also help to reduce the number of steps in the upstream component. …providing incentives Other measures by DG Customs and the terminal operator to promote the early submission for early submission of of import declarations by importers and freight forwarders could also help reduce processing the import times. A good communication campaign aligned with incentives for early submission might declaration… encourage importers to start the pre-clearance process earlier. Incentives to encourage early submission of the import declaration could include tax discounts, duties discounts, as well as reduced container terminal fees. Such incentives might compensate freight forwarders and importers for the extra cost of operating on Saturdays and Sundays, when many containers arrive. Conversely, DG Customs could undertake evaluation and profiling of freight forwarders to identify and penalize those companies that delay the submission of import declarations. Finally, 24/7 service provision may be improved by introducing service-level agreements between the Terminal operator and the shipping lines, as well as for government agencies to facilitate weekend operations. … and continuing to Ongoing improving to the INSW will be required if it is to deliver on its potential to strengthen the INSW improve the efficiency of the import process. As an interim step, a one-stop service space and introduce one-stop could be prioritized, where various institutions have access to all information, including services Quarantine, Customs and BPOM. Implementing a single payment for all import processes, including all government agency fees, taxes and import duties, as well as all terminal charges, could also have a major positive impact. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 35 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly C. Indonesia 2014 and beyond: A selective look 1. Estimating the stock of infrastructure in Indonesia There has been more For many years infrastructure investment in Indonesia has struggled to reach 3 to 4 percent than a decade of of GDP, far below the pre-1997/98 Asian Crisis level of above 7 percent and well behind under-investment in neighboring countries, such as China, Thailand, and Vietnam, where it has exceeded 7 infrastructure in percent of GDP.11 Against a sharp decline in private sector, and moderation in state-owned Indonesia… enterprise (SOE), investment in recent years, the Government’s contribution to overall infrastructure investment has increased markedly, led by sub-national governments. However, despite the Government’s commitment to improve infrastructure provision and spending, the overall level of infrastructure investment has barely returned to pre-1997/98 levels in real terms and has failed to keep pace with increasing demand. …with economic Using new data on infrastructure investment compiled by the World Bank, and building on implications that merit the analysis of these data presented in the March 2013 IEQ, this section delves further into closer examination the underinvestment in infrastructure in Indonesia and its growth implications. In particular, it explores two questions: how has the level of investment affected the accumulation of infrastructure capital stock; and how might a more rapid accumulation of infrastructure have affected Indonesia’s recent growth trajectory? Data limitations are a In the analysis presented below, infrastructure is considered to include energy, roads, key constraint for the bridges, ports, irrigation and telecommunication infrastructure. The limited availability and analysis of Indonesia’s lack of comprehensive data on investment in, and the stock of, such infrastructure have been infrastructure capital a challenge to pursuing in-depth analysis on the above questions. These data constraints, as stock and need to be outlined in the March 2013 IEQ, mean that the calculations in this section should be treated addressed to help with caution. However the findings presented below aim to provide the foundation for 11See the March 2013 IEQ for the World Bank’s recent estimates of infrastructure investment in Indonesia and for the regional context see Asian Development Bank; World Bank; Japan Bank for International Cooperation (2005) Connecting East Asia: A New Framework for Infrastructure. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 36 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly better inform evidence- improved analysis at the national, subnational and sector levels and to stimulate further data based decision making collection and analysis to inform evidence-based policy making in Indonesia on this important issue. a. Infrastructure investment relative to GDP has fallen since 1997/98 Indonesia’s According to the World Figure 34: Infrastructure investment levels to GDP have infrastructure Bank data, infrastructure fallen with the exception of subnational government investment levels fell investment in Indonesia fell (nominal infrastructure investment levels as share of GDP, percent) sharply following the markedly following 1997/98 1997/98 Asian Crisis… and has recently stabilized at 10 around 3 to 4 percent of 8 GDP (Figure 34). In Average (1995-97) Average (2008-11) contrast, the level of gross 6 fixed capital investment (including construction, 4 machinery and equipment, 2 and transportation equipment) has recovered as 0 a share of GDP, reaching 33 percent in 2012, surpassing levels seen before the Asian crisis. This recovery was driven by construction investment, particularly visible in increased housing, Source: Infrastructure investment data as detailed in Box 5 in the shopping outlets and other March 2013 IEQ and World Bank staff calculations buildings. …with broad-based As detailed in the March 2013 IEQ, the fall in infrastructure investment as a share of GDP falls across entities, but was broad-based across government, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and the private sector. particularly for the Private sector investment experienced the biggest fall, by 2.1 percent of GDP, from an private sector average of 2.3 percent of GDP during 1995-97 to below 0.4 percent of GDP in 2008-11. The sharp fall in private sector infrastructure investment is of particular concern, given an increasing focus on Public Private Partnerships (PPP) to finance Indonesia’s infrastructure development. SOE investment also dropped by about 1.8 percent of GDP. Total (local and central) government investment declined by 0.9 percent from an average of 3.3 percent of GDP during 1995-1997 to 2.4 percent of GDP over 2008-11 (Figure 34). Government In constant price terms (using the national accounts investment deflator), total infrastructure infrastructure investment during 2008-11 was about a third lower than its level in 1995-97. However, by investment, although 2008-11 annual average government (central and local) infrastructure investment in constant down relative to GDP, prices had recovered to 1995-97 levels, while SOEs and the private sector remained down has almost recovered around 30 and 70 percent. The government sector contribution to overall infrastructure in real terms, driven by investment has therefore increased, led by sub-national government spending on local road sub-national investment. The rising importance of sub-national investment reflects the impact of fiscal government decentralization in 2001 in which spending assignments and financing were transferred to investment… sub-national governments. Prior to decentralization, about 80 percent of the government infrastructure investment came from the central government, with only 20 percent provided by sub-national governments. Subsequently this has shifted to about 65 percent of spending implemented by sub-national government and 35 percent by the central government. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 37 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly …as well as a recent The Government recognizes Indonesia’s infrastructure challenges and has committed to major boost in central address them through the Medium-Term Development Plan (Rencana Pembangunan Jangka government capital Menengah Nasional, RPJMN) and the Master Plan for the Acceleration and Expansion of spending, reflecting Indonesia Economic Development (Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi the Government’s Indonesia, MP3EI). Indonesia has also introduced a number of policies and initiatives, commitment to including significant budget increases for capital spending and a strengthened institutional improve infrastructure and regulatory framework for Public Private Partnerships (PPP). However, despite a sizeable provision rise in nominal capital spending by the central government, overall progress on infrastructure investment on the ground remains relatively slow, due to a range of implementation and coordination challenges.12 b. Indonesia’s stock of infrastructure capital has likely declined relative to the total… Led by robust As mentioned above, Indonesia’s aggregate investment growth has been strong in recent construction years, with gross fixed capital formation growing in real terms at 8 percent on average investment growth between 2001 and 2011, largely driven by construction. As a result, Indonesia’s overall Indonesia’s total capital stock ratio-to-GDP has risen from an estimated 1.7 times GDP in 1995 to 2.1 times capital-to-output ratio GDP in 2011. Has infrastructure capital stock, which is a key input to productivity and has increased in recent growth, kept track with this overall trend? The following section will explore this important years question, including the likely implication on output growth. In contrast, estimates The Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM), combined with the assumptions outlined in Box 4, suggest that the can be used to estimate the level of Indonesia’s infrastructure capital stock. Preliminary infrastructure capital estimates indicate that the declining real infrastructure investment rate in the face of stock has likely depreciation and rapid economic growth have likely resulted in a declining level of declined relative to the infrastructure stock relative to the size of the overall economy. For example, after size of the economy depreciation, the average real growth of the infrastructure capital stock between 1996 and and the total capital 2011 was 3 percent, below the average real GDP growth rate of 4 percent (including the stock 1997/98 crisis period). The pace of infrastructure investment growth has also not kept pace with the real growth in the overall capital stock, which averaged 4.4 percent over this period (Figure 35). As a result, Indonesia’s infrastructure capital stock has gradually declined from an assumed starting value of 28 percent of total capital stock in 1995 to 20 percent in 2011 (Figure 36). The recent pick up in public infrastructure investment has been only sufficient to slow the rate of relative decline. The rise in the growth rate of overall investment in the last decade has been led by the non-infrastructure construction sector. While these estimates are subject to a range of caveats the broad findings do appear relatively robust to different assumptions (see Box 4). Figure 35: The total capital stock has grown at a faster real Figure 36: …resulting in a decline in the ratio of the rate than the infrastructure capital stock.… infrastructure capital stock relative to the total capital stock (real growth of total and infrastructure capital stock, percent) (share of infrastructure capital stock to total capital stock, percent) 14 30 12 Real growth of total capital stock 10 8 25 6 4 2 20 0 -2 Real growth of infrastructure capital stock -4 15 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: World Bank staff calculations Source: World Bank staff calculations 12 For further analysis on implementation challenges in infrastructure sector see the June 2012 IEQ. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 38 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 4: Methodological note on estimating infrastructure capital stock in Indonesia In this analysis, total infrastructure capital is Table 7: The growth of the infrastructure capital stock is sensitive to the defined as capital stock invested by the general assumed initial level of the infrastructure stock and depreciation rate Growth of government, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), Level of infrastructure infrastructure and private sector within core infrastructure capital stock (share of total capital stock capital stock, percent) sectors such as transport, irrigation, water and (percent) sanitation, energy (electricity) and the Starting End Average Average telecommunications sectors. It excludes period period 1996-2011 military structures and equipment and other 2001-11 (1995) (2011) infrastructure such as hospital, education Baseline: 28 percent initial level 28 20 23 3.0 buildings, and other public buildings. This of infrastructure capital stock; 5 analysis uses monetary indicators (e.g. percent depreciation rate infrastructure investment flows and Scenario I - Different initial level of infrastructure capital stock accumulated value) to measure infrastructure A. +5% of baseline 33 21 24 2.2 assets instead of physical indicators (e.g. road kilometers). This definition follows the B. -5% of baseline 23 19 21 4.0 infrastructure investment data compiled by the Scenario II - Different depreciation rates World Bank, as detailed in the March 2013 A. 3.5 percent 28 23 25 3.9 IEQ. A clear caveat with this approach is that B. 6.1 percent 28 18 21 2.1 the relationship between investment and the Source: World Bank staff calculations provision of infrastructure services, which matter for growth and development outcomes, is dependent upon the quality and efficiency of the investments. The Perpetual Inventory Method is used to estimate the infrastructure capital stock, by taking an estimate of the initial capital stock value (in 1995 from when the infrastructure investment data are available) to which gross investment flows are added and from which depreciation of the existing stock is subtracted. Based on this approach, Indonesia’s estimated infrastructure capital stock in 2011 of 49 percent of GDP is close to McKinsey Global Institute (2013) average estimates (over 1992-2011, including capitalized maintenance) for India at 58 percent of GDP but below averages for middle and high income economies of 70 percent of GDP. Due to data limitations, a number of assumptions have been made to construct the capital stock estimates. First, following Van der Eng (2008) who estimates the capital stock in Indonesia between 1950 and 2007, the initial value of the total capital stock is assumed to be 1.7 times GDP in 1995 and the initial level of infrastructure capital stock is assumed at 28 percent of total capital stock. (Although the initial value of total and infrastructure capital stock use Van der Eng’s estimate, the trends and levels of total and infrastructure capital stock for the subsequent period of analysis are different due to different methodologies). Second, the annual depreciation rate for infrastructure assets is assumed at 5 percent, following the Ministry of Finance’s assumption for tax accounting purpose for building and transportation equipment (MoF, 2009). This rate is in-between the implicit depreciation rate of 6.1 percent used by Van der Eng for Indonesia, and a 3.5 percent rate used by Arslanalp (2011) for middle-income countries. Finally, it is important to note that the use of investment data may underestimate the contribution of maintenance spending on sustaining asset life. However, this may be offset by the likely overestimation implied by assuming a one-to-one relationship between infrastructure investment and the accumulation of productive assets. For example, Pritchett (2000) argues that there is lack of relationship between investment spending (flow) and the accumulation of productive assets, particularly in developing countries, owing to inefficiencies and waste. The estimates of the infrastructure capital stock are sensitive to the assumptions on the initial level of the infrastructure stock and the depreciation rate (Table 7); if initially in 1995 the infrastructure capital stock was 33 percent of total capital stock (5 percentage points higher than the baseline), then the annual growth of the infrastructure capital stock over the period would have averaged 2.2 percent, lower than the baseline, as the higher initial stock would result in more depreciation relative to the new investment flows, but the final estimated level in 2011 would be higher. Depreciation rate assumptions also affect the growth rate and infrastructure capital stock level; a lower depreciation rate of 3.5 percent (below the baseline of 5 percent) would result in a higher average growth rate of the infrastructure stock and its estimated level relative to the total capital stock would be higher than the baseline. Note: See Van der Eng, Pierre (2008) ‘Capital Formation and Capital Stock in Indonesia, 1950-2007.’ Working Papers in Trade and Development No.24. Canberra: School of Economics, ANU College of Business and Economics, Australian National University; McKinsey Global Institute (2013), ‘Infrastructure Productivity: How to save $1 trillion a year’; MoF Regulation (PMK No. 96/PMK.03/2009); Arslanalp, S. et.al (2011), ‘Investing in Growth’, Finance & Development, March 2011. IMF; Pritchett, L (2000), ‘The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital’, Journal of Economic Growth, 5:361-384. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 39 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly c. …affecting Indonesia’s growth trajectory The weak growth of Capital stocks, including infrastructure, reflect the capacity of the economy to produce infrastructure capital goods and services. The quality and quantity of the infrastructure capital stock - particularly stock has likely core infrastructure such as roads network, railways, bridges, ports, airports, electricity, hampered Indonesia’s telecommunication facilities, and water systems - is a critical input to economic productivity recent economic and competitiveness. The majority of empirical studies find a positive relationship between performance infrastructure capital stocks and output (Box 5). As such, and as expected from the impacts of infrastructure weaknesses on businesses and households on a daily basis, the relatively low growth in Indonesian’s infrastructure capital stock has likely hampered Indonesia’s economic performance over the past decade. Box 5: Empirical studies on the links between public and infrastructure capital stocks and growth A number of studies have found a positive relationship Table 8: Selected studies of estimates of the elasticity of output between infrastructure capital stocks and growth, although with respect to infrastructure the estimated magnitude varies by country depending on Country/ Infrastructure Authors EOI* factors such as measures of infrastructure, period of region measure analysis, and quality of investment. Results tend to be USA Aschauer 0.39 Public capital stronger if the measures of infrastructure are physical. The (1989) quantitative assessments in this area took-off with the Developing Easterly and Transport & 0.16 seminal work of Aschauer (1989) which explained the countries Rabelo (1993) communication productivity growth slowdown in the 1970s in the USA. Cross Calderon and Transport & 0.16 country Serven (2003) communication Aschauer found that a rise in the public capital stock was Esfahani and associated with a large increase in private output, with a 1 Cross Ramires 0.12 Physical capital percent rise in the public capital stock increasing private country (2003) stock output by 0.39 percent. Since then, many studies have been Sahoo and 0.18 to Physical capital undertaken for the USA, OECD countries, cross-country South Asia Dash (2008) 0.22 stock and at the regional level. However, country-specific studies Cross for developing countries are still limited. One relevant country Ligthart and 0.15 Public capital country-specific study is Sahoo et al. (2010) that examines (meta- Bom (2009) the role of infrastructure in promoting economic growth in analysis) China for the period 1975 to 2007. Infrastructure China Sahoo et al. 0.20 to Physical capital development was found to have made a significant positive (2010) 0.41 stock contribution to growth with an output-to-infrastructure Note: * EOI indicates the elasticity of output with respect to elasticity in the range of 0.20 to 0.41. infrastructure Source: Adopted from Sahoo et al (2010) and Ligthart and Bom (2009) For simplicity, in the simulations an elasticity of output to infrastructure capital stock of 0.15 was assumed, along the lines of the empirical findings of Ligthart and Bom (2009) and Corong et al (2012). On the one hand, this relatively conservative elasticity assumption takes into account the concerns over the weak linkages between monetary investment, physical capital stock, and infrastructure service provision. On the other hand, this assumption could underestimate impact of positive externalities of accumulated infrastructure capital, for example on improving accessibility to education and health services. It also is recognized that the multiplier of infrastructure investment to growth varies between types of infrastructure investment. For example, OECD (2009), using measures of physical infrastructure per capita, estimates a range of multipliers for various type of infrastructure, for example, roads (0.3 – 0.46), railway infrastructure (0.39 – 0.53), motorways (0.42-4), electricity (0.39), telephone mainline infrastructure (0.39 – 0.42), and telephone subscriptions (0.34 – 0.45). Due to data limitations, this disaggregated analysis by type of infrastructure is not conducted for Indonesia. Source: Sahoo, Pravakar., Dash, Ranjan Kumar, Nataraj, Geethanjali. (2010). ‘Infrastructure development and economic growth in China’ IDE Discussion Paper No. 261. Institute of Developing Economies; OECD (2009), ‘Infrastructure investment: links to growth and the role of public policies’, Douglas Sutherland, Sónia Araújo, Balázs Égert and Tomasz Kozluk, OECD Working Paper No. 686, 24 March 2009; Ligthart, Jenny E., and Bom, Pedro RD. (2009). ‘How Productive is Public Capital? A Meta Regression Analysis’ International Studies Program. Andrew Young School of Public Policy Studies. Georgia State University October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 40 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly A simple A simple counterfactual exercise serves to illustrate how the weak pace of infrastructure counterfactual exercise investment may have affected growth in Indonesia, or put another way, the potential can be used to benefits from achieving higher levels of infrastructure investment, if this investment is illustrate the potential implemented in an efficient and effective manner. As a baseline, a relatively high elasticity impact on growth of assumption of output to the infrastructure capital stock of 0.15 is used, given the current improving Indonesia’s relatively low rate of infrastructure provision in Indonesia – i.e. a 10 percent increase in the infrastructure capital capital infrastructure stock is assumed to lead to a 1.5 percent rise in GDP. As discussed in stock growth Box 5, it is recognized that the multiplier of infrastructure to growth varies by the type of infrastructure, however, due to data constraints this disaggregate analysis cannot be carried out. For the scenario analysis, two scenarios of alternative annual growth of infrastructure capital stock of 5 and 10 percent are applied. Higher growth rates in The average growth rates of the Figure 37: Greater investment in infrastructure capital infrastructure stocks estimate of Indonesia’s real would have been associated with higher average growth would have delivered infrastructure capital stock and (average real GDP growth over 2001-11 under different infrastructure higher levels of GDP of real GDP were 3.0 and 5.3 capital stock growth scenarios, percent) growth… percent, respectively, for the 8 period 2001-2011. Assuming a causal relationship between 7 changes in the infrastructure 6 capital stock and output, if the 5 growth rate in infrastructure capital stock had been 5 percent 4 7.0 annually, rather than 3 percent, 3 5.8 5.3 the estimated average annual 2 GDP growth over this period would have been 5.8 percent, 0.5 1 percent higher than the actual 0 annual average GDP growth of Actual Scenario I Scenario II 5.3 percent (Figure 37). (3 percent) (5 percent) (10 percent) Cumulatively, the level of GDP Source: World Bank staff calculations would have been 5 percent higher in 2011. If the annual growth in infrastructure capital stock had been even higher, at 10 percent, GDP growth would have averaged 7 percent for the period 2001-11, about 1.7 percentage points higher than the actual average, and the level of GDP would have been 19 percent higher in 2011, reflecting the cumulative impact of higher average annual growth (Figure 37). … which would have Extensive empirical analyses suggest that higher GDP growth often contributes to poverty contributed to faster reduction. Given the official poverty line and Indonesia's consumption distribution - that is, poverty reduction and how many people lie within 1 percent of the poverty line - in recent years, for every 1 improved development percent growth in the incomes of the poor, the national poverty rate declines by 0.5 outcomes percentage points. Applying this rough rule of thumb, and some assumptions about how much GDP growth passes through to household consumption growth of the poor, a higher growth of infrastructure capital stock of 5 percent (than actual average of 3 percent), could increase the growth of poor consumption by an additional 0.3 percent per annum, and be associated with an additional 0.15 percentage point fall in poverty per year. From 2001-11, this would mean a 1.5 percentage point lower poverty rate (i.e., this year's poverty would be 9.9 percent rather than its current 11.4 percent). If the growth of infrastructure capital stock would have been averaging 10 percent, this number would be 4.5 percentage points over the period, or a current poverty rate of 6.9 percent. These estimates are clearly simplifications but are intended to be illustrative. It is also important to recognize that the extent to which infrastructure-supported growth may support further poverty reduction is influenced by many factors, such as the type of infrastructure, its geographical location, condition, and the period of analysis. Oct ober 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 41 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly A continued focus on Since the 1997/98 crisis, Indonesia has had difficulties in achieving sustained growth of its lifting the quality and infrastructure capital stock. In fact, while there are significant data limitations, the evidence quantity of suggests that infrastructure stock has not increased greatly over this period, causing it to fall infrastructure spending relative to both the total capital stock and to the size of the economy. With demand for is critical for Indonesia better infrastructure services only likely to increase, the need to continue improving to realize its growth infrastructure investment is clear. In this regard, improving both the quantity and quality of potential... public investment is important. Continuing to increase the budget allocation for infrastructure development plays a role, through redirecting spending, for example, from energy subsidies, and supporting improved revenue mobilization. In parallel, the Government’s efforts, mentioned in Part A, to support spending execution and project implementation should be sustained. Fiscal sustainability and competing demands for public funds also argue for a strong focus on efficiency, including ensuring the smooth operation and maintenance of existing infrastructure, and, more broadly, on improving the quality of public investment management to deliver effectively on the priority public infrastructure needs of the economy. In addition, it will be important to support policies, regulations and institutions, such as in relation to public private partnerships (PPPs), which can build a stronger enabling environment for private sector infrastructure investments. …and further data As discussed, measuring the size of Indonesia’s total and infrastructure investment, capital collection and analysis stocks and their impact on growth has been challenging due to a range of data limitations can help to inform the and required assumptions. The estimations and simulations presented above are an initial quality of evidence- step in this analysis. Improving the quality, timeliness and coverage of the data is an based policy making in important step for enhancing this analysis and to inform better evidence-based policies on support of this goal infrastructure needs and performance. Extensions to this analysis can also support these objectives, for example, by linking the investment and capital stock estimates to real sector indicators, by disaggregating the investment and stock by type and by region, by linking spending on operations and maintenance to the capital stock estimates, by making adjustments to take into account the quality of investments, and by examining in more detail their relationships with outcomes including growth and inclusiveness. Estimates of the current economic costs of infrastructure weaknesses can also further enrich this analysis. This includes not only the economic costs of congestion but also the opportunity costs of the private sector’s responses, such as purchasing in-house generation capacity or adding additional trucks to compensate for fewer deliveries per day by each truck due to congestion. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 42 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2. Local governance and education performance A core task of any A strong and versatile education system is vital to the long-term development of any education system is to country. 13 The core task of any education system is to equip young people with the skills equip young people they need to participate fully in social, economic and political life. Providing a good quality with the skills they basic education to all children can raise productivity, increase the rate of economic growth need, and this is vital and support the foundations for a peaceful future. For example, recent international for development research has shown that ensuring all children leave school with basic literacy and numeracy skills can raise annual per-capita growth by up to one percentage point.14 Such an advantage would have a significant positive impact on Indonesia's medium-term growth trajectory and development outlook. This section discusses recent survey evidence on the important role that improvements in local governance can play in raising the quality of basic education and ensuring children leave school with adequate skills. Education reform has In the last fifteen years, Indonesia has introduced a comprehensive package of education led to expanded school reforms designed to expand access and improve quality. A key component of the reform access but more process has been the devolution of responsibility for basic education services to local modest improvements governments and schools. These reforms, coupled with an unprecedented increase in in learning government investment in education have resulted in significant improvements in education access particularly for the poorest children. 15 However, improvements in learning achievement have been more modest and children still leave school with inadequate skills for the needs of the labor market. As with other education systems around the world, improving the quality of basic education continues to be a central challenge. Strengthening local Strengthening the capacity of local governments to manage their education systems government capacity is effectively is vital if efforts to raise education quality are to be successful. The ability of local a crucial ingredient for governments to deliver good quality basic education services varies considerably across improved education Indonesia. Identifying the key dimensions of governance that underpin effective education quality service delivery can provide a starting point for addressing existing weaknesses and raising education performance. 13 This section draws on the forthcoming World Bank study ‘Local governance and education performance: A survey of local education governance in 50 Indonesian districts’. 14 Hanushek, E. and L. Woessmann (2008). "The role of cognitive skills in economic development." Journal of Economic Literature 46(3). 15 For further analysis on recent trends in education spending and outcomes in Indonesia, see World Bank (2013), Indonesia - Spending more or spending better: improving education financing in Indonesia. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/03/17536528/indonesia-spending-more-or- spending-better-improving-education-financing-indonesia. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 43 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly a. Local education governance is important for improving performance Decentralization has Decentralization has put Figure 38: Local governments provide the bulk of education put local governments local governments, financing for basic education at the heart of basic particularly district (source of government education spending by level, percent, 2009) education service administrations, at the heart Central Province District 100 delivery… of basic education service 0 delivery. District 80 responsibilities include the 50 53 61 overall management of the 60 71 education system, the 100 licensing of schools and the 8 6 40 1 planning and supervision of 3 the teaching force. Districts 20 41 38 41 also provide the bulk of 26 public financing for primary 0 Total budget Early Primary and Senior Universities and junior secondary childhood junior secondary schools (Figure 38). education secondary Source: World Bank staff estimates based on MoF and APBD data …and their capacity to Since district governments play a central role in delivering basic services, their capacity to manage their manage their education systems effectively is a key determinant of performance. Educational education systems is a opportunities vary enormously across Indonesian districts; average national examination key determinant of scores at the primary level in 2009 varied from a low of 48 percent in Sumba Barat Daya in education outcomes the province of Nusa Tenggara Timur to a high of 83 percent in Kota Mojokerto in Jawa Timur province. Poverty, geography and other socio-economic factors explain some of this variation but research has shown that the quality of local governance is also important. In particular, studies have shown that education outcomes are better in districts that have more effective planning and budgeting systems and have lower levels of perceived corruption.16 These findings suggest that efforts to improve education outcomes will need to address weaknesses in local governance to be successful. b. The Indonesian Local Education Governance (ILEG) survey A survey of the quality In order to assess the state of local education governance, a survey was conducted in 50 of local education districts (across nine provinces) in 2009 and 2012. The participating districts were selected governance was by the Ministry of Education and Culture to take part in the Basic Education Capacity conducted across 50 (BEC) Development project (which, as described in Box 6, provided technical assistance and districts in 2009 and grants to the selected districts). The survey aimed to: 2012… 1. Provide an assessment of districts’ capacity to deliver basic education services 2. Explore the relationship between governance and district education performance 3. Track recent changes in education governance 4. Assess the effect of donor-supported capacity building activities The districts participating in the ILEG survey are not representative of Indonesia as a whole. In particular, the districts that participated in the survey tended to be poorer than other districts but had similar levels of education access and achievement. 16See for example, World Bank (2010). Governance matters to education outcomes. The Indonesia local education governance index (ILEGI): A report card of 50 local governments and Suryadarma, D. (2012). "How Corruption Diminishes the Effectiveness of Public Spending on Education in Indonesia." Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 48(1): 85-100. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 44 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and included In the ILEG survey, education governance is broken down into four key dimensions that measurements of seek to measure the effectiveness of local government institutions associated with the education governance delivery of education services: which were organized  Transparency and accountability. The practices and regulatory efforts made by local into five main governments to enable transparent, accountable and participatory governance of the categories… education sector.  Management control systems. Assesses the extent to which systems are in place to incorporate decisions made by local and school level planning processes into annual district education work plans.  Management information systems. Measures the availability of good quality information on local education systems that can be used for education planning and monitoring processes.  Efficient resource use. Establishes whether the systems are in place to effectively plan, budget and monitor resource use. A fifth component, education service provision standards, provides a summary measure of the level and quality of primary and junior secondary education services in a district and can be used to explore associations between the dimensions of governance and education performance. …resulting in five For each dimension, a set of indicators is used to evaluate the quality of local governance. weighted sub-indices, Indicators are weighted according to whether they are measures of regulatory compliance, and an overall ILEG process or performance. Indicators of performance are given the highest weight and index to provide a regulatory indicators the lowest. In order to summarize the quality of local governance, the summary measure of set of indicators in each area are combined into a sub-index. For example, the sub-index for the quality of local transparency and accountability is a weighted average of ten indicators. These sub-indices are education governance averaged to construct the ILEG index which is an overall measure of the quality of local education governance. The index ranges from 0 to 100 percent with low scores indicating that key components of governance that drive better education performance are not in place and high scores indicating that these components already exist. c. The main findings of the ILEG survey The survey results The results of the survey show Figure 39: Higher quality local education governance is indicated that better that decisions on the priority associated with better education performance governed districts given to education, the quality (estimated primary and junior examination scores, y-axis, for different tended to have higher of the inputs provided and their local education governance scores, x-axis) quality, and more distribution tend to be better in 70 efficiently distributed, districts with higher quality education inputs and governance. For example, 65 better education districts with a better ILEG performance index tend to have more 60 qualified teachers and these teachers are more equitably 55 distributed. These results remain even after other factors 50 (e.g. poverty, age of the district 0-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100 etc.) are controlled for. Intermediate outcomes are also improving quality of education governance positively related to education Note: The results presented here show the estimated relationship enrolment rates and between the ILEG index and the UN examination score having examination scores. Districts controlled for other factors that could determine district that devote a greater share of examination scores (e.g. poverty levels) their budgets to education and hire more qualified teachers, for example, tend to have better enrolment rates and examination scores. Putting the results together suggests that better quality local governance is associated with better education performance (Figure 39). October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 45 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Local education Education governance has Figure 40: Small overall improvements in education governance is improved between 2009 and 2012 governance but big shifts in some dimensions improving, but only but overall these improvements (index scores in 2009 and 2012, percent) slowly,… have been small (Figure 40). The ILEG Index* 2012 2009 overall ILEG index increased by 3 percentage points and the quality of local education governance Transparency and remains firmly in the middle of Accountibility*** the performance range. However, Management Information there have been some notable Systems** shifts in the distribution of Management Control districts along the performance Systems** range. The percentage of districts Resource Use** that were classified as low Service Provision performers in terms of Standards*** governance (with ILEG index scores of 45 percent or less) fell 0 20 40 60 80 100 from 28 percent to 16 percent. Note: Asterisks indicate the level of statistical significance of a test of the difference between the 2009 and 2012 indices - *** - These results show that district significant at the 1 percent level, ** - significant at the 5 governments are moving in the percent level, * - significant at the 10 percent level right direction, albeit slowly. Source: Indonesian local education governance survey, 2009 & 2012 …and weaknesses in Performance across the areas of governance measured by the survey also shows large key aspects of local differences. Local governments appear to perform strongly in terms of the education service governance remain provision standards the survey measured. However, districts were rated relatively poorly on the effectiveness of their management control systems and districts were rated as only average in the quality of their management information systems and in the processes they had in place to make education decision-making transparent and accountable. There have been some Despite the weaknesses in management information systems, and transparency and improvements in the accountability, identified by the survey, some progress has been made (Figure 40). In terms quality of education of transparency and accountability, improvements have been made in the efforts that local management governments have made to encourage greater community participation in decision-making information systems and oversight activities. For example, between 2009 and 2012 the proportion of districts that and processes to allowed public participation in parliamentary accountability and audit reporting sessions strengthen increased from 14 percent to 52 percent. However, in 2012, only half of the surveyed transparency… districts allowed public access to parliamentary budget and audit discussions. …but weakness Accurate and timely information is vital for effective planning and monitoring of local remain, with only a education systems. Local governments registered some modest improvements in this area third of districts having between 2009 and 2012. For example, a slightly higher number of district education offices systems in place to had written procedures and protocols for data collection and verification in 2012 than in collect accurate and 2009. However, only about a third of all districts had these systems in place by 2012 and this timely information is a contributory factor in the large discrepancies seen in key district education variables when different data sources are compared. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 46 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Weaknesses in the way The deterioration of the Figure 41: District capacity to catalogue and districts manage and effectiveness of management disseminate good practice has declined use their education control systems was largely the (percentage of surveyed districts, 2009 and 2012) resources appear to result of a drop in the number 0 25 50 75 have grown, of districts that systematically Evidence that district particularly in relation documented and disseminated education office identifies to the documentation examples of innovation and innovative good practice of innovation and best best practice (Figure 41). For practice example, in 2009 two-thirds of Evidence of a systematic districts made efforts to identify approach to document and catalogue innovative… and document good practice whereas in 2012 this had fallen Evidence of a system for to less than a half. Other stakeholders to document components of this dimension good practice of governance also appear to be Stakeholders have a 2009 2012 weak. In 2012, only 12 percent standard procedure to of districts consolidated school validate good practice development plans to use in their district education planning process. This undermines Source: Indonesia local education governance survey data, 2009 and 2012 school based management reforms which have encouraged schools to develop school development plans as part of a bottom-up planning process designed to link district resources more closely to the needs of schools. Despite these setbacks, some aspects of management control have improved over the last few years. In particular, asset management systems appear to have been strengthened and a greater proportion of districts are carrying out yearly stock inventories and have passed local legislation on asset management. Differences between The factors underlying the decline in the dimension of governance associated with efficient planned and realized resource use are more complex. This area of governance is most closely associated with an spending point to assessment of the effectiveness of district education offices to plan, budget and monitor the weaknesses in use of education resources. A key indicator of effectiveness in this area is the difference budgeting for between planned and realized education spending. This indicator deteriorated between 2009 education… and 2012; the number of districts reporting gaps between planned and realized spending of less than 10 percent over the last three years fell from 46 percent to 32 percent. However, the large adjustments in the revised budgets are partly due to revisions in intergovernmental transfers that local governments cannot control. …but other indicators Although the sub-index on Figure 42: Some aspects of the local planning and budget suggest that local efficient resource use process have improved planning and declined between 2009 and (percentage of surveyed districts, 2009 and 2012) budgeting processes 2012, local governments have Priorities and ceilings are set before the budgeting process are beginning to also registered some in district education office improve important gains in the starts 2012 2009 processes which determine Education annual and medium how public resources are term plans include indicative budget ceilings and take used (Figure 42). For budget limits into account example, the proportion of districts that include Annual budget policy includes measurable outcome measurable outcome indicators indicators in their annual budgets increased from 72 to Programs and activities in regional strategic plan 92 percent. Improvements to (RPJMD) can be measured the functioning of local quantitatively planning and budgeting 0 20 40 60 80 100 processes have also shown Source: Indonesian local education governance survey data, 2009 progress. Between 2009 and and 2012 October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 47 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2012 the proportion of districts that set budget priorities and ceilings before sector offices (e.g. the education office) start their own planning exercises increased from 44 percent to 74 percent. These improvements reflect recent efforts by the central government to introduce performance based budgeting and medium term expenditure frameworks. Box 6: The effect of capacity development grants provided to district education offices The Basic Education Capacity (BEC) program provided support to all of the sampled districts in the ILEG survey through technical assistance and the provision of local capacity development grants of approximately USD 255,000. While the grants were relatively small (on average less than one percent of average annual education expenditure) they were designed to strengthen local education governance and improve education performance. It was expected that local governments would use the capacity building grants to focus on the main areas of weakness identified in 2009 partly through the first round of the ILEG survey. However, it appears that areas assessed to be the weakest were allocated less grant resources than the strongest areas. For example, in 2009 districts ranked relatively highly on the ILEG sub-index for education service provision standards, yet this area received the largest share of BEC grant resources. It is not possible to directly attribute the changes in the quality of local education governance reported by the ILEG survey from 2009 to 2012 with capacity building efforts. However, the weak targeting of resources for capacity building is likely to have played a part in the mixed picture of improvements in governance recorded by the survey. Future capacity-building support programs should build on the experience of the BEC program, which points to the importance of carefully targeting support, cutting across governance sectors, and tailoring support to district characteristics. d. Without addressing key governance constraints, performance is unlikely to improve District education The findings of the ILEG survey demonstrate the importance of the quality of local performance will not governance in improving district education performance. Put simply, district education improve without performance is unlikely to improve without strategies to address the key governance strategies to address constraints highlighted in this section. However, progress in strengthening local education key governance governance over the last four years has been slow, despite efforts to strengthen district constraints capacity. Major challenges therefore need to be addressed if local education governance is to be improved.17 Better coordination While strengthening local governance is crucial for sustained progress in the education and integration of sector it is also important to recognize that central government transfers and education central government sector programs present a number of challenges to district level education governance. The financing in local current intergovernmental transfer system introduces incentives for higher salary spending education planning is which may distort the decision-making process and result in mismatches between school needed needs and district allocations. While local governments provide the bulk of funding for basic education, the central government still contributes significantly. In order to reduce the risk that central government programs undermine district efforts to improve education sector management and governance there is a need for improved coordination and integration of central and local government programs. This includes efforts to clarify roles and responsibilities and an increased effort to incorporate central government programs into local planning processes are clearly needed. 17 A fuller discussion of these issues is contained in the forthcoming World Bank study, ‘Local governance and education performance: A survey of local education governance in 50 Indonesian districts’. October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 48 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure 1: Quarterly and annual GDP growth Appendix Figure 2: Contributions to GDP expenditures (real GDP growth, percent) (contribution to QoQ seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth, percent) Private cons. Gov cons. Investment 4 8.0 Net Exports Discrepancy GDP Year-on-year (RHS) 4 3 6.0 QoQ seas. adjust 2 2 (LHS) Average (LHS)* 4.0 0 1 2.0 -2 0 0.0 -4 Jun-06 Mar-08 Dec-09 Sep-11 Jun-13 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Note: *Average QoQ growth between Q2 2003 – Q2 2013 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank seasonal adjustment Appendix Figure 3: Contributions to GDP production Appendix Figure 4: Motor cycle and motor vehicle sales (contribution to QoQ seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth, percent) (monthly sales, 000 unit) Agriculture Mining and Const Manufacture Comm and Trans. 900 130 Trade, Hotel, & Rest. Other (incl services) 2 Overall GDP Motor cycles (LHS) 110 700 90 1 500 70 0 300 Motor vehicles (RHS) 50 -1 100 30 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC Appendix Figure 5: Consumer indicators Appendix Figure 6: Industrial production indicators (index) (3 month average, year-on-year growth, percent) 160 30 30 Cement sales BI Retail sales index 140 (RHS) 20 20 BI Consumer 120 Survey Index 10 10 100 0 0 80 Manufacturing production index (LHS) 60 -10 -10 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Source: BI Source: CEIC O c t ob e r 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 49 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 7: Real trade flows Appendix Figure 8: Balance of payments (quarter-on-quarter real growth, percent) (USD billion) 15 Capital and financial Current account Errors and omissions Overall BoP inflows Exports 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Imports -10 -15 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Source: BPS Source: BI Appendix Figure 9: Exports of goods Appendix Figure 10: Imports of goods (USD billion) (USD billion) 20 20 Total Exports Total Imports 16 16 12 12 Intermediate 8 Manufacturing 8 Agriculture & forestry Capital Oil & gas 4 4 Consumer Oil & gas Mining & minerals 0 0 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Source: BPS Source: BPS Appendix Figure 11: Reserve and capital inflows Appendix Figure 12: Inflation and monetary policy (USD billion) (month-on-month and year-on-year growth, percent) 150 5.0 3.5 12.0 Headline inflation, YoY (RHS) International Reserves (LHS) 125 2.5 BI policy rate (RHS) 2.5 Core inflation, YoY (RHS) 8.0 100 0.0 1.5 4.0 75 Equities -2.5 Headline inflation MoM (LHS) SUN 50 SBI -5.0 0.5 0.0 Non-resident portfolio inflows, (RHS): 25 -7.5 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 -0.5 -4.0 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: BI; CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 50 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI Appendix Figure 14: Inflation comparison across countries (percentage point contributions to monthly growth) (year-on-year, August 2013) Core Administered Volatile Headline Indonesia* 3.6 Thailand 3.0 Singapore 2.4 China 1.8 Philippines USA 1.2 Korea 0.6 Malaysia 0.0 Japan -0.6 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations *September inflation figure for Indonesia Source: National statistical agencies via CEIC; BPS Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice prices Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate (percent LHS, wholesale price, in IDR per kg RHS) (percent) 100 10,000 60 Unemployment rate, LHS 20 Formal employment rate, LHS Percentage spread (LHS) Poverty rate 45 Poverty rate 15 50 7,000 RHS 30 10 0 4,000 15 5 Domestic rice, IR-III Vietnamese rice 25% broken (RHS) (RHS) -50 1,000 0 0 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: PIBC; FAO; World Bank Source: BPS Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices Appendix Figure 18: Dollar index and Rupiah exchange rate (daily index September 2009=100) (daily index, LHS and IDR/USD, RHS) 250 105 8,000 SET IDR/USD 200 100 (RHS) 9,000 JCI 95 150 SGX IDR Appreciation 10,000 90 100 BSE Dollar Index (LHS) 11,000 Shanghai 85 50 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 80 12,000 Jan-09 Mar-10 May-11 Jul-12 Sep-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 51 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 19: 5-year local currency government bond Appendix Figure 20: Sovereign USD Bond EMBI spreads yields (daily, basis points) (daily, percent) 10 475 60 Indonesia Indonesia spreads less overall EMBIG Index spreads (RHS) 8 400 0 6 325 -60 Philippines 4 250 -120 2 Malaysia Thailand 175 -180 Indonesia EMBIG bond spreads (LHS) United States 0 100 -240 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-09 Jan-11 May-12 Sep-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: JP Morgan; World Bank staff calculations Appendix Figure 21: International commercial bank lending Appendix Figure 22: Banking sector indicators (monthly, index August 2009=100) (monthly, percent) 230 100 10 Indonesia Loan Deposit 210 Ratio (LHS) India 80 8 190 Singapore 60 6 170 Non-Performing Return on Assets Malaysia Loans (RHS) Ratio (RHS) 150 40 4 130 Thailand United States 20 2 110 Capital Adequacy Ratio (LHS) 90 0 0 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI Appendix Figure 23: Government debt Appendix Figure 24: External debt (percent of GDP; USD billion) (percent of GDP; USD billion) 60 300 60 300 Government debt ratio to GDP External debt ratio to GDP (LHS) (LHS) 40 200 40 200 20 100 20 100 0 0 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 External debt, RHS June Private external debt, RHS June Domestic debt, RHS Public external debt, RHS Source: MoF; BI; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations O c t ob e r 2 01 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 52 Appendix Table 1: Budget outcomes and projections (IDR trillion) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revised Proposed Outcome Outcome Outcome Outcome budget budget A. State revenue and grants 849 995 1,211 1,338 1,502 1,663 1. Tax revenue 620 723 874 981 1,148 1,310 2. Non-tax revenue 227 269 331 352 349 351 B. Expenditure 937 1,042 1,295 1,491 1,726 1,817 1. Central government 629 697 884 1,011 1,197 1,230 2. Transfers to the regions 309 345 411 481 529 586 C. Primary balance 5 42 9 -53 -112 -35 D. SURPLUS / DEFICIT -89 -47 -84 -153 -224 -154 (percent of GDP) -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.4 -1.5 Source: MoF Appendix Table 2: Balance of Payments (USD billion) 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Balance of Payments 30.3 11.9 0.2 -4.0 -3.7 -1.0 -2.8 0.8 3.2 -6.6 -2.5 Percent of GDP 4.3 1.4 0.0 -1.8 -1.7 -0.5 -1.3 0.4 1.5 -3.0 -1.1 Current Account 5.1 1.7 -24.4 0.8 -2.3 -3.2 -8.2 -5.3 -7.8 -5.8 -9.8 Percent of GDP 0.7 0.2 -2.8 0.3 -1.1 -1.5 -3.8 -2.4 -3.6 -2.6 -4.4 Trade Balance 21.3 24.2 -1.7 7.1 3.5 1.8 -2.0 0.8 -2.4 -0.9 -3.7 Net Income & Current Transfers -16.2 -22.5 -22.7 -6.4 -5.8 -5.0 -6.2 -6.1 -5.4 -4.9 -6.2 Capital & Financial Accounts 26.6 13.6 25.1 -3.1 0.2 2.1 5.1 5.9 12.1 -0.3 8.2 Percent of GDP 3.8 1.6 2.9 -1.4 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.6 5.5 -0.1 3.6 Direct Investment 11.1 11.5 14.0 2.1 3.1 1.6 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.3 Portfolio Investment 13.2 3.8 9.2 -4.6 0.2 2.6 3.9 2.5 0.2 2.8 2.5 Other Investment 2.3 -1.8 1.9 -0.7 -3.2 -2.1 -2.5 -1.2 7.7 -7.0 2.3 Errors & Omissions -1.5 -3.4 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.8 Foreign Reserves* 96.2 110.1 112.8 114.5 110.1 110.5 106.5 110.2 112.8 104.8 98.1 Note: * Reserves at end-period Source: BI; BPS Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Table 3: Indonesia’s historical macro-economic indicators at a glance 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 National Accounts (% change) Real GDP 9.0 8.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 Real investment 25.3 22.6 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.8 9.8 Real consumption 23.2 21.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 Private 23.9 22.7 3.7 0.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 Government 18.8 14.7 14.2 6.6 0.3 3.2 1.2 Real exports, GNFS 22.5 18.0 30.6 16.6 15.3 13.6 2.0 Real imports, GNFS 30.2 29.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 13.3 6.6 Investment (% GDP) 28 28 20 24 32 32 33 Nominal GDP (USD billion) 114 202 165 286 709 846 878 GDP per capita (USD) 636 1035 804 1,300 2,984 3,498 3,563 2 Central Government budget (% GDP) Revenue and grant 18.8 15.2 20.8 17.8 15.5 16.3 16.2 Non-tax revenue 1.0 4.8 9.0 5.3 4.2 4.5 4.3 Tax revenue 17.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 11.3 11.8 11.9 Expenditure 11.8 13.9 22.4 18.4 16.2 17.4 18.1 Consumption .. 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 Capital .. 4.6 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 Interest .. 1.4 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Subsidies .. .. 6.3 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 Budget balance 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 Government debt 41.9 32.3 97.9 47.6 26.0 24.3 23.9 o/w external government debt 41.9 32.3 51.4 22.3 9.5 8.3 7.4 Total external debt (include private sector) 61.0 61.5 87.1 47.7 28.2 27.5 29.6 3 Balance of Payments (% GDP) Overall balance of payments .. .. .. 0.2 4.3 1.4 0.0 Current account balance -2.6 3.2 4.8 0.1 0.7 0.2 -2.8 Exports GNFS 25.6 26.2 42.8 35.0 24.7 26.2 24.1 Imports GNFS 24.0 26.9 33.9 32.0 21.6 23.3 24.3 Trade balance 1.6 -0.8 8.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 -0.2 Financial account balance .. .. .. 0.0 3.7 1.6 2.9 Net direct investment 1.0 2.2 -2.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 Gross official reserves (USD billion) 8.7 14.9 29.4 34.7 96.2 110.1 112.8 3 Monetary (% change) 1 GDP deflator 7.7 9.9 20.4 14.3 8.3 8.1 4.5 Bank Indonesia interest key rate (%) .. .. .. 9.1 6.5 6.6 5.8 Domestic credit .. .. .. 28.7 17.5 24.4 24.2 4 Nominal exchange rate (average, IDR/USD) 1,843 2,249 8,422 9,705 9,090 8,770 9,387 1 Prices (% change) Consumer price Index (eop) 9.9 9.0 9.4 17.1 7.0 3.8 4.3 Consumer price Index (average) 7.7 9.4 3.7 10.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 Poverty basket inflation (average) .. .. .. 10.8 8.7 8.2 6.5 5 Indonesia crude oil price (USD per barrel) .. 17 28 53 79 112 113 Source: 1 BPS and World Bank staff calculation; 2 MoF and World Bank staff calculation (for 1995 is FY 1995/1996, for 2000 covers 9 months); 3 Bank Indonesia; 4 IMF; 5 CEIC October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 54 Continuing adjustment Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Table 4: Indonesia’s development indicators at a glance 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Demographics Population (million) 184 199 213 227 241 244 247 Population growth rate (%) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 31 36 42 46 50 51 51 Dependency ratio (% of working-age population) 67 61 55 54 53 53 52 2 Labor Force Labor force, total (million) 75 84 98 106 117 117 118 Male 46 54 60 68 72 72 73 Female 29 31 38 38 45 45 45 Agriculture share of employment (%) 55 43 45 44 38 36 35 Industry share of employment (%) 14 19 17 19 19 21 22 Services share of employment (%) 31 38 37 37 42 44 43 Unemployment, total (% of labor force) 2.5 7.0 8.1 11.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 3 Poverty and Income Distribution Median household consumption (IDR 000) .. .. 104 211 374 421 446 National poverty line (IDR 000) .. .. 73 129 212 234 249 Population below national poverty line (million) .. .. 38 35 31 30 29 Poverty (% of population below national poverty line) .. .. 19 16 13 12 12 Urban (% of population below urban poverty line) .. .. 14.6 11.7 9.9 9.2 8.8 Rural (% of population below rural poverty line) .. .. 22.4 20.0 16.6 15.7 15.1 Male-headed households .. .. 15.5 13.3 11.0 10.2 9.5 Female-headed households .. .. 12.6 12.8 9.5 9.7 8.8 Gini index .. .. 0.30 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.41 Percentage share of consumption: lowest 20% .. .. 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 Percentage share of consumption: highest 20% .. .. 38.6 41.4 43.5 46.5 46.7 4 Public expenditure on social security & welfare (% of GDP) .. .. .. 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 1 Health and Nutrition Physicians (per 1,000 people) 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.29 .. 0.20 Child malnutrition weight for age (% of children under 5) .. 27.4 24.8 24.4 18.6 .. .. Under five mortality rate (per 1000 children under 5 year) 98 67 52 42 34 32 31.0 Neonatal mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 27 26 22 19 16 15.5 15.0 Infant mortality (per 1000 live births) 67 51 41 34 28 26.7 25.8 Maternal mortality ratio (estimate, per 100,000 live births) 600 420 340 270 220 .. .. Skilled birth attendance (% of total births) 36 .. 66 .. 82 .. .. Measles vaccination (% of children under 1 year) .. 63 74 .. 76 .. .. Total health expenditure (% of GDP) .. 1.8 77.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 .. Public health expenditure (% of GDP) .. 0.7 89.0 89.0 1.0 0.9 .. 3 Education Primary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 92 92 92 93 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 48 48 49 49 Secondary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 52 61 60 60 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 50 50 50 49 Tertiary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 9 16 14 15 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 55 53 50 54 Adult literacy rate (%) .. .. .. 91 91 91 92 4 Public spending on education (% of GDP) .. .. .. 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 4 Public spending on education (% of spending) .. .. .. 14.5 19.7 19.8 18.9 1 Water and Sanitation Access to an improved water source (% of population) 70 74 78 81 84 84 .. Urban (% of urban population) 91 91 91 92 93 93 .. Rural (% of rural population) 61 65 68 71 75 76 .. Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 32 38 44 53 58 59 .. Urban (% of urban population) 56 60 64 70 73 73 .. Rural (% of rural population) 21 26 30 38 43 44 .. 1 Others Disaster risk reduction progress score (1-5 scale; 5=best) .. .. .. .. .. 3.3 .. 5 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (%) .. .. 8 11 18 18.2 18.6 Source: 1 BPS and World Bank staff calculation, 2 MoF and World Bank staff calculation (for 1995 is FY 1995/1996, for 2000 covers 9 months), 3 Bank Indonesia, 4 IMF, 5 CEIC October 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 55 December 2013 Slower growth; high risks INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Slower growth; high risks December 2013 Preface The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia’s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia’s evolving economy. The IEQ is a product of the World Bank’s Jakarta office. The report is compiled by the Macro and Fiscal Policy Cluster, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network, under the guidance of Jim Brumby, Sector Manager and Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist and Economic Advisor, and Ashley Taylor, Senior Economist. Led by Alex Sienaert, the core project team, with responsibility for Part A (economic update), editing and production, comprises Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Brendan Coates, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Elitza Mileva, Violeta Vulovic and Michele Savini Zangrandi. Administrative support is provided by Titi Ananto and Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Dissemination is organized by Farhana Asnap, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan, Nugroho Sunjoyo, Randy Salim and Marcellinus Winata, under the guidance of Dini Sari Djalal. This edition of the IEQ also includes contributions from Leni Dharmawan, Lily Hoo, Mattia Makovec, Arvind Nair, Cindy Paladines, Della Temenggung, Violeta Vulovic, and Matthew Wai-Poi. Key input was received from The Fei Ming, Neni Lestari, Djauhari Sitorus, Connor Spreng, Ekaterine Vashakmadze and Anna Wetterberg. The report also benefited from discussions with, and in-depth comments, from Mark Ahern, Jamie Carter, Sjamsu Rahardja, David Nellor and Bill Wallace (Australia Indonesia Partnership for Economic Governance) and Roland Rajah (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade). This report is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, supported by funding from the Australian Government under the Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA) program. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent, or the Australian Government. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Cover and chapter photographs are taken by Josh Estey and Ed Wray and are copyright of the World Bank. All rights reserved. For more World Bank analysis of Indonesia’s economy: For information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia, please visit www.worldbank.org/id. In order to be included on an email distribution list for this Quarterly series and related publications, please contact madriani@worldbank.org. For questions and comments relating to this publication, please contact asienaert@worldbank.org. Table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: SLOWER GROWTH; HIGH RISKS .......................................... I  A. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL UPDATE ............................................................................... 1  1.  Slowly improving global demand, external financing risks remain ............................................................. 1  2.  Despite strong consumption, Indonesia’s economic growth is slowing ...................................................... 3  3.  Headline inflation has normalized but core inflation is rising ..................................................................... 6  4.  Indonesia’s current account deficit remains in focus, despite slowing imports .......................................... 9  5.  Credit conditions are expected to tighten further moving into 2014 .......................................................... 14  6.  Public expenditure and tax revenue growth has slowed over 2013 ............................................................. 17  7.  Given prevailing risks, further progress on pro-growth reforms is needed ................................................ 20  B. SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA’S ECONOMY ........................ 23  1.  A closer look at the 2014 Budget .................................................................................................................. 23  2.  An update on poverty in Indonesia ............................................................................................................. 28  C. INDONESIA 2015 AND BEYOND: A SELECTIVE LOOK ........................................... 32  1.  The labor market in Indonesia: recent achievements and challenges ....................................................... 32  a.  The challenges of an ongoing but incomplete structural transformation .......................................................... 35  b.  “Good jobs” rising, but many workers remain informal and vulnerable ............................................................ 36  c.  Coping with a largely unskilled labor force ......................................................................................................... 37  2.  Local capacity and development in Indonesia ............................................................................................ 38  a.  A brief history of community-driven development in Indonesia ........................................................................ 38  b.  Understanding changes in local capacity since 2001 .......................................................................................... 39  c.  Democratization, decentralization, CDD and local capacity…........................................................................... 41  d.  …and the importance of enhanced checks and balances at the village level ..................................................... 42  APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ................ 43  LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Key commodity export prices show signs of stabilizing at broadly flat levels compared with a year ago ............................................................................................................. 2  Figure 2: Global and emerging market sovereign debt funding costs remain on an up-trend ........ 2  Figure 3: Real GDP growth is moderating, falling to 5.6 percent yoy and 5.0 qoq saar in Q3… .... 3  Figure 4: …though nominal GDP growth increased sharply in Q3 on the back of rising economy- wide prices ................................................................................................................... 3  Figure 5: Investment growth has slowed markedly while consumption growth has remained strong… ........................................................................................................................ 4  Figure 6: …with only building investment driving overall positive investment growth .................. 4  Figure 7: High frequency indicators are mixed but are below their previous highs ........................ 5  Figure 8: The prices of some key foods are stabilizing after a volatile year ..................................... 7  Figure 9: Seasonal food deflation and fading transport price rises have pushed down headline monthly CPI inflation… .............................................................................................. 8  Figure 10: …but core inflation momentum has increased notably ................................................... 8  Figure 11: The current account deficit stabilized at USD 8.4 billion in Q3… ................................ 10  Figure 12: …helped by the non-oil-and-gas trade balance returning to surplus since August...... 10  Figure 13: The weakness in overall imports has been led by a contraction in capital goods ........ 10  Figure 14: Manufacturing and construction together absorb almost 70 percent of Indonesia’s imports ....................................................................................................................... 10  Figure 15: Weaker portfolio investment led to a lower capital and financial account surplus in Q3 relative to Q2… .......................................................................................................... 12  Figure 16:…but measures of onshore FX spot market liquidity conditions have improved since mid-year ..................................................................................................................... 14  Figure 17: Bank credit growth has been inflated by exchange rate effects…................................. 16  Figure 18: …but has slowed, particularly in real terms… ............................................................... 16  Figure 19: Rupiah liquidity has tightened and interbank borrowing costs have risen ................... 16  Figure 20: The 2014 Budget targets a smaller deficit than in 2013 and further reduction in the ratio of debt-to-GDP… .............................................................................................. 24  Figure 21: … but despite this, gross fiscal financing requirements are likely to be similar to 2013’s high levels .................................................................................................................. 24  Figure 22: Energy subsidies still consume a significant part of the Budget .................................. 25  Figure 23: The pace of poverty reduction in recent years has been the slowest in over a decade . 28  Figure 24: The remaining poor households in Indonesia are further below the poverty line than earlier in the 2000s… .................................................................................................. 28  Figure 25: …while the poor and vulnerable also participate less in Indonesia’s recent economic growth ........................................................................................................................ 28  Figure 26: Of Indonesia’s labor force of 121 million workers, 114 million are employed (less than half in the formal sector) ............................................................................................ 33  Figure 27: The rise in the employment rate in Indonesia since 2005 has been among the strongest in the region ............................................................................................... 33  Figure 28: Year-on-year employment growth has been sustained since 2005, although slowing down after 2011 ........................................................................................................... 34  Figure 29: Formal employment contributed four-fifths total job creation between 2001 and 2012 34  Figure 30: Low value-added sectors in services have contributed mostly to job creation between 2001 and 2012 .............................................................................................................. 35  Figure 31: Employment growth and labor productivity growth are negatively correlated............. 35  Figure 32: Important wage differences exist between sectors, and within sectors between type of employment ............................................................................................................... 36   Figure 33: Dependent employment is on the rise, but most workers are still employed in vulnerable forms of work ........................................................................................... 36  Figure 34: Although the labor force has become more skilled, less than 8 percent has a university degree ......................................................................................................................... 37  Figure 35: Over 40 percent of Indonesia’s youth aged 15-24 are not in employment, education or training ....................................................................................................................... 37  LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES Appendix Figure 1: Quarterly and annual GDP growth.................................................................. 43  Appendix Figure 2: GDP expenditure contributions ...................................................................... 43  Appendix Figure 3: Contributions to GDP production................................................................... 43  Appendix Figure 4: Motor cycle and vehicle sales .......................................................................... 43  Appendix Figure 5: Consumer indicators........................................................................................ 43  Appendix Figure 6: Industrial production indicators ..................................................................... 43  Appendix Figure 7: Real trade flows ............................................................................................... 44  Appendix Figure 8: Balance of payments........................................................................................ 44  Appendix Figure 9: Exports of goods .............................................................................................. 44  Appendix Figure 10: Imports of goods ............................................................................................ 44  Appendix Figure 11: Reserve and capital inflows ............................................................................ 44  Appendix Figure 12: Inflation and monetary policy........................................................................ 44  Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI ........................................................................... 45  Appendix Figure 14: Inflation across countries ............................................................................... 45  Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice prices.......................................................... 45  Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate .................................................................... 45  Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices.................................................................................. 45  Appendix Figure 18: Dollar index and Rupiah exchange rate ........................................................ 45  Appendix Figure 19: 5-year domestic govt. bond yields ................................................................. 46  Appendix Figure 20: Sovereign USD Bond spreads........................................................................ 46  Appendix Figure 21: International commercial bank lending ........................................................ 46  Appendix Figure 22: Banking sector indicators .............................................................................. 46  Appendix Figure 23: Government debt ........................................................................................... 46  Appendix Figure 24: External debt.................................................................................................. 46  LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Indonesia’s economic growth rate is projected to slow to 5.3 percent in 2014 .................iii  Table 2: Under the baseline scenario GDP growth of 5.6 percent is projected for 2013 and 5.3 percent for 2014 ............................................................................................................ 6   Table 3: The persistence of a current account deficit is likely to keep the need to support FDI in focus ........................................................................................................................... 12  Table 4: External debt repayments in Q4 2013 have been high, likely adding to Rupiah pressures… ................................................................................................................. 12  Table 5: Higher Budget disbursement characterized the Jan – Nov 2013 period, relative to previous years............................................................................................................. 18  Table 6: The World Bank projects a fiscal deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP in 2014, narrowing from 2.5 percent in 2013 ...................................................................................................... 19  Table 7: Modestly weaker than expected consumption and investment growth could move 2014 GDP growth down to below 5 percent ...................................................................... 20  Table 8: The approved fiscal deficit in 2014 is 1.7 percent of GDP, slightly higher than previously proposed ..................................................................................................................... 26  Table 9: Macroeconomic and price assumptions have been revised in a conservative direction from those in the August proposal ............................................................................ 27  Table 10: The Medium-Term Budget Framework projects an overall surplus by 2016 ................. 27  Table 11: Comparison of Key Research Aspects in LLI1, LLI2, and LLI3 ..................................... 40  LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES Appendix Table 1: Budget outcomes and projections .................................................................... 47  Appendix Table 2: Balance of Payments ......................................................................................... 47  Appendix Table 3: Indonesia’s historical macro-economic indicators at a glance ....................... 48  Appendix Table 4: Indonesia’s development indicators at a glance .............................................. 49  LIST OF BOXES Box 1: The potential near-term impact of the proposed ban on unprocessed mineral exports on Indonesia’s trade balance .......................................................................................... 13  Box 2: Update on the policies to improve the investment climate in Indonesia............................ 22  Box 3: BLSM, Susenas and measuring poverty ............................................................................... 29  Box 4: Local Level Institutions Studies methodology .................................................................... 40  Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Executive summary: Slower growth; high risks Looking ahead to 2014, The final quarter of 2013 has seen the continuing adjustment of the Indonesian economy to Indonesia faces slower more subdued commodity prices and tighter external financing conditions, and to the related growth, and significant pressures on external balances. Policies have responded, particularly through tighter economic risks… monetary conditions, the Rupiah has depreciated substantially in real terms, and investment spending and output growth have weakened. These developments are broadly supportive of continued macroeconomic stability, including by helping to lower the current account deficit, although their impact continues to play out, adding additional uncertainty to the path of the domestic economy. At the same time, the international environment is also shifting, with global growth expected to improve, bringing potential policy changes, notably in US monetary policy, which could add to the pressures on Indonesia’s external financing position. …requiring a policy In light of the slower pace of growth, and the risks facing the economy, there is a strong focus not only on need for Indonesia to augment the recent macro focus on tighter monetary policy, exchange macro adjustment but rate adjustment and import compression, with deeper reforms to lift export performance also on credible and support investment inflows, especially FDI. Progress on the credible implementation of implementation of such measures can help to limit the vulnerability of Indonesia’s external balances to tighter, longer-term or more volatile, global financing conditions and can help to support a sustainable virtuous investment- and cycle of strong investment, including foreign investment, and output growth over the export-enhancing medium term. The political dynamics of an election year may play an important role in reforms framing policy choices in 2014 but this backdrop also adds importance to the need for clear communication and coordination of such deeper reforms, both in the formulation and implementation stages, and for the avoidance of policy missteps. This would support local and foreign investor confidence in Indonesia’s future economic trajectory, and external financing inflows. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA i Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly The performance of Economic conditions amongst the world’s largest economies, and Indonesia’s major trading the global economy is partners, remain uneven. Growth in the US has picked up steam over 2013, the Euro Area expected to improve has finally exited its long recession but its recovery remains subdued, while growth in Japan, further in 2014… though positive, has weakened. China’s economic activity accelerated in the second half of 2013, joined in recent months by India, but activity in some other major developing economies like Brazil has remained more subdued. Moving into 2014, the baseline expectation is for global economic conditions to strengthen, as high income economies gain more traction, supporting growth in developing economies, notably including China, and resulting in a continued modest expansion in the demand for Indonesia’s exports. …and commodity International commodity prices have generally increased in recent months lifting the price prices have index of Indonesia’s top ten commodity exports by 3.8 percent since August (though it stabilized… remains 2 percent lower in 2013 and 22 percent below its recent peak in February 2011), helped by higher coal, natural gas, and palm oil prices. If sustained, the nascent stabilization in commodity prices would help arrest the decline in Indonesia’s terms of trade which has driven much of the deterioration in the external balances. However, the baseline outlook of only a moderate pick-up in global growth, coupled with the likelihood of tightening global liquidity conditions and more structural downward pressure on prices from supply-side factors, does not suggest a major upswing in commodity prices in 2014. …but international The international outlook, although improving, still contains sizeable policy challenges and policy risks and uncertainties. In Europe, the recovery is fragile and will likely be uneven due to ongoing financial conditions deleveraging and considerable reform challenges. In Asia, the pace and manner in which continue to pose ambitious structural reform efforts in China and Japan are implemented, and elections in challenges for India, will shape the outlook. Above all, the timing and pace of the phasing out of the US Indonesia Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program (so-called “tapering”) is uncertain, but keeps the risks of global market volatility and more difficult external financing conditions to the fore. Domestic policy and As highlighted in the October 2013 IEQ, the expectations of tapering, and related tightening economic adjustments external financing conditions, beginning in May, combined with the gradual transmission of over 2013 have been lower commodity prices since 2011, have precipitated a number of important economic and significant… policy adjustments in Indonesia over the second half of 2013, which are ongoing. Bank Indonesia (BI) has raised its policy interest rate corridor by 175 basis points (bp) since June, when the Government increased subsidized fuel prices by an average of 33 percent. The Rupiah has depreciated by 24 percent against the US Dollar year-to-date, largely since August, and in real trade-weighted terms fell by 12.5 percent from its recent peak in May through October. …and growth has Indonesia’s economic growth has slowed notably, to 5.6 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the slowed notably, third quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of declining growth from the recent high reducing import of 6.4 percent yoy in Q2 2012. Most of the slowdown has been driven by softening demand, especially of investment spending, which was up a relatively modest 4.5 percent yoy in the third quarter, capital goods, helping reflecting contractions in machinery and equipment investment from their year-ago levels. to stabilize the current Weaker investment spending has cut capital goods imports, the US Dollar value of which account deficit was 16.3 percent lower yoy over the three months to October. Overall import volumes have been subdued, and contracted significantly in Q3. Export volumes also contracted in sequential terms in Q3, but not by as much as imports, such that net exports added significantly to output growth. Overall, indications are that Indonesia’s trade balance is shifting in such a way as to stabilize and begin to narrow the overall current account deficit. Macroeconomic The monetary policy and exchange rate adjustments seen in 2013 are broadly positive for adjustments to date macroeconomic stability, with the depreciation of the Rupiah acting as a “shock absorber” have been broadly for the weaker terms of trade by supporting export earnings and dampening import demand. positive for stability, However, these adjustments carry costs, and can bring potential risks, notably by placing but do carry some pressure on public and private sector balance sheets by raising the Rupiah value of external costs… debt—particularly if there are currency mismatches—and eroding incomes through higher debt servicing and import costs. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA ii Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and while the 2014 The above monetary policy and exchange rate changes are carrying the burden for near-term Budget maintains a macro adjustment. On the fiscal side, the 2014 Budget, approved by Parliament on October prudent stance it does 25, maintains a non-expansionary stance, projecting a smaller overall fiscal deficit of 1.7 not contain any major percent of GDP. However, the Budget does not include any major revenue or expenditure fiscal reforms reforms, though it does incorporate a reduction in the allocation to electricity subsidies by 29 percent relative to 2013, reflecting the intention for ongoing upward tariff adjustment. With the impact of the June 2013 price hike offset by the weakness in the Rupiah, the budget allocation to fuel subsidies is set to remain significant in 2014 at IDR 211 trillion (or 2.0 percent of GDP), up IDR 11 trillion on the 2013 revised Budget level. The World Bank As the impact of less buoyant commodity prices, tighter external financing conditions, projects GDP growth higher real domestic interest rates, and the depreciation of the Rupiah, continues to play out, to slow to 5.3 percent Indonesia’s GDP growth is projected by the World Bank to slow to 5.3 percent yoy in 2014 in 2014, and the current in the base case (Table 1), from 5.6 percent in 2013. Helped by relatively subdued import account deficit to growth and a mild pick up in exports, the current account deficit should narrow, to USD 23 narrow… billion in 2014 (2.6 percent of GDP), from USD 31 billion (3.5 percent of GDP) in 2013. Table 1: Indonesia’s economic growth rate is projected to slow to 5.3 percent in 2014 2011 2012 2013p 2014p Real GDP (Annual percent change) 6.5 6.2 5.6 5.3 Consumer price index (Annual percent change) 5.4 4.3 7.0 6.1 Current account deficit (Percent of GDP) 0.2 -2.8 -3.5 -2.6 Budget balance (Percent of GDP) -1.1 -1.9 -2.5 -2.1 Major trading partner GDP (Annual percent change) 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.9 Source: BI; BPS; Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff projections (2013p and 2014p) …but risks around this These projections, however, are subject to significant uncertainty, and risks are tilted towards base line are skewed weaker domestic growth. In particular, the baseline view is contingent on external financing towards slower conditions being sufficiently supportive to avoid precipitating a more abrupt external growth… balance adjustment, causing economic disruption and a knock-on impact on growth. Such a deterioration could be triggered by international market developments, or be specifically due to domestic economic and policy developments. In addition to the risks around growth, there are also risks to the fiscal outlook. For example, the World Bank estimates that a 10 percent depreciation of the Rupiah increases the fiscal deficit by 0.3-0.4 percentage points of GDP, largely by raising fuel subsidy costs (see the October 2013 IEQ). …with a particular Indonesia’s GDP forecasts are particularly sensitive to the investment outlook which faces focus on risks to risks from further real interest rate increases and exchange rate volatility, or from a greater- investment growth, but than-expected tightening in credit conditions impacting the thus-far solid growth in building also to the resilience of investment. There is also the risk that private consumption growth—although notably private consumption resilient to date—may come under more pressure from higher prices and interest rates, weaker income growth and negative wealth and confidence effects. Even mildly weaker domestic demand growth than currently anticipated (e.g. a 0.5 percentage points reduction in private consumption and investment growth relative to their base lines) could reduce 2014 growth to below 5 percent. A more severe moderation in domestic demand, for example, due to an intensification of external financing constraints or negative confidence effects associated with policy missteps, could feasibly move 2014 growth to below 4.5 percent. There is a need for With consumption goods accounting for less than 10 percent of Indonesia’s imports, the policies to support slowdown in imports, while supporting a reduction in the current account deficit, mainly exports and FDI means less raw material and intermediate products for manufactured goods production, and inflows, and to avoid fewer capital goods. In the absence of available, competitive, domestic substitutes this will potentially damaging likely come at a direct cost to current and future export and output growth. While import measures aimed at compression due to relative price and income effects can play a useful short-term role in the import suppression adjustment process, the real policy challenge for Indonesia is therefore not to focus on additional import suppression through regulatory measures, but rather to increase exports, and to secure more and higher quality external financing, particularly FDI. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA iii Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Measures to support While FDI into Indonesia has so far proved resilient, if still at lower levels relative to GDP improvements in the than many regional peers, it is underpinned by three factors which have all come under business environment varying degrees of recent pressure: Indonesia’s huge natural resource base (undercut by have an important role generally softer global commodity prices and regulatory uncertainties), the large and growing to enhance Indonesia’s domestic market (undercut, at least in the near-term, by the headwinds facing domestic underlying demand), and Indonesia’s potential as a regional production hub in Asia (undercut by attractiveness to FDI regulatory uncertainties, and skills and infrastructure gaps). Consequently, there is a clear inflows… need to make more progress to support FDI, including by moving forward on a pro- investment revision of the negative investment list (DNI), a centerpiece of the Government’s August policy package still awaiting implementation, and strengthening the quality of the overall investment policy formation process to minimize policy uncertainty. The Government has also launched a significant policy package to improve the ease of doing business, with an action plan announced on October 25 across eight “Doing Business” areas. The challenge now is to implement this package on the ambitious February 2014 timeline, providing a positive signal as to the trajectory of the business environment and commitment to reform implementation. …and process and The real depreciation of the Rupiah over 2013, by boosting international competitiveness, regulatory presents an opportunity for Indonesia to improve its export performance. Furthermore, the improvements in trade weakening in commodity prices could also shift investment more towards the non-resources facilitation and sector, including export-oriented manufacturing. As highlighted in the October 2013 IEQ, a logistics could also number of “quick wins” are available in trade facilitation and logistics, focusing on the deliver “quick wins” to performance of import cargo clearance in ports such as Tanjung Priok in Jakarta, which by lift exports improving efficiency and predictability in trade logistics could boost exports and strengthen Indonesia’s participation in the global production network. Supporting longer-term export competitiveness also requires a continued focus on plugging infrastructure and skills gaps. A continued emphasis As highlighted in this and previous IEQs, fuel subsidies remain a major source of fiscal risk, on the quality of dent the ability of the flexible exchange rate to absorb shocks, and divert spending away spending, including, from more efficient uses, including the needed increases in public investment. Although any through subsidy fuel price increases appear politically unpalatable ahead of elections, there is clearly a strong reform, can help to need for further reforms, while at the same time improving the safety net for the poor and meet longer-term vulnerable. Reform options include those that may not result in an immediate increase in development goals… prices, such as implementing a rule-based approach for setting subsidized fuel prices in such a way as to gradually limit the fiscal exposure to higher Rupiah-denominated fuel prices. …along with measures Reallocating spending from subsidies could support a strengthening of Indonesia’s social to make further assistance programs. While the recent expansion in long-term social assistance programs progress in the fight from the third quarter of 2013 is welcome, social assistance spending (at about 0.5 percent against poverty, … of GDP) remains low by global standards and commitment to the ongoing growth of social assistance, and effective program implementation, will be required to help speed up poverty reduction. For example, poverty in Indonesia fell by 0.6 percentage points in the year to March 2013, to 11.4 percent as measured by the official rate. Moving into 2014, higher prices and slower economic growth add to the poverty reduction challenge. Indeed, the World Bank projects the March 2014 poverty rate to be 11.0-11.1 percent, indicating a continuation of the ongoing slowing of poverty reduction and suggesting that the Government’s 2014 target of an 8-10 percent poverty rate will likely be missed. …to address longer- To make further progress in achieving Indonesia’s medium-term development objectives, it term labor market will be necessary to support ongoing positive structural change in the labor market. This challenges and support requires steps to enhance productivity and facilitate formal sector employment growth in governance capacity at higher value-added sectors, including by increasing the skills base of the labor force. This the local level edition of the IEQ also considers the insights from recent survey results on another key element for delivering on Indonesia’s development goals, namely strengthening local governance capacity for effective service delivery. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA iv Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly A. Economic and fiscal update 1. Slowly improving global demand, external financing risks remain The growth Economic conditions amongst the world’s largest economies, and Indonesia’s major trading performance of partners, remain uneven. The Euro Area finally exited from recession in the second quarter Indonesia’s major of 2013, following six consecutive quarters of contraction, but growth softened again in the trading partners third quarter (to 0.4 percent at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, qoq saar), suggesting remained mixed that its path to recovery remains bumpy. Growth also weakened in Japan in the third through the end of quarter, to 1.1 percent qoq saar, while, in contrast, US growth firmed to 3.6 percent qoq 2013… saar, suggesting that the US economy has continued to gain steam fairly steadily through 2013. Amongst major developing economies, growth in China moved up to 9.3 percent qoq saar, but in Brazil output contracted in Q3 versus Q2, by 0.5 percent (seasonally adjusted), and growth has been relatively subdued in India (at 4.8 percent year-on-year, yoy, in Q3), though recently showing signs of re-accelerating. …but global demand is Looking ahead to 2014, high income economy growth is expected to remain at or above its expected to stage a recent pace, with the Euro Area’s still-fragile recovery expected to continue, and the US modest improvement economy expected to expand at close to its current rate. Supported by this mild expansion, in 2014… developing country growth is also expected to increase, with China’s economy growing by 7.7 percent in 2014, and developing country growth excluding China climbing to above 4 percent in 2014, up from approximately 3.5 percent in 2013. Consequently, the World Bank projects the weighted average growth of Indonesia’s major trading partners to increase to 3.9 percent in 2014, up 0.5 percentage points from 2013. In the base case, therefore, international demand should increase moderately through 2014, supporting a continued modest expansion in the demand for Indonesia’s exports. D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 1 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and Indonesia’s International commodity prices have generally increased in recent months. The weighted US major commodity Dollar price index of Indonesia’s ten most important export commodities, accounting for prices may be approximately half of total export revenues, troughed in September and picked up through stabilizing, following the end of November, helped by higher coal, natural gas, and palm oil prices (Figure 1). As a over two years of result the year-to-November decline was trimmed to 2.5 percent from 7 percent in sustained losses September. However, the index remained down 22 percent from its February 2011 peak, with the prices of coal (down 40 percent), palm oil (down 37 percent) and copper (down 27 percent) having fallen most precipitously from their 2011 highs. Should it prove sustained, the nascent stabilization in commodity prices would help arrest the decline in Indonesia’s terms of trade which has driven much of the deterioration in its external balances. However, the base line outlook of only a moderate pick-up in global growth conditions through 2014, coupled with the likelihood of tightening global liquidity conditions and more structural supply-side factors placing downward pressure on prices, does not suggest a major upswing in commodity prices. In addition, as noted in the October 2013 IEQ, Indonesia’s terms of trade continue to suffer from the fact that global oil prices, impacting the country’s sizable fuel imports, remain relatively elevated compared with non-energy commodity prices. However, ongoing While the expected modest increase in global growth in 2014 should be broadly positive for policy uncertainties Indonesia by supporting overall export demand, the international outlook continues to be cloud the international clouded by major policy uncertainties, keeping the risks of more adverse global growth outlook… scenarios elevated. In Europe, high unemployment (12 percent for the Euro Area), large output gaps, and continued credit contractions in the periphery generate deflation risks, while reform fatigue may mean that the reforms necessary to boost structural growth prove hard to deliver, complicating the economic recovery. In Asia, the pace and manner in which ambitious structural reform efforts in China and Japan are implemented, and national elections in India, will shape the outlook. Figure 1: Key commodity export prices show signs of Figure 2: Global and emerging market sovereign debt stabilizing at broadly flat levels compared with a year ago funding costs remain on an up-trend (US Dollar commodity price index, 2007 average=100) (yields, percent) Top 10 index Coal 300 Natural gas Palm oil 6 US 10-year note 16 Rubber Emerging markets 14 5 USD bonds (RHS) 250 Indonesia USD bonds 12 4 (RHS) 10 200 3 8 150 6 2 4 100 1 2 0 0 50 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Note: Top 10 index is index of USD prices of Indonesia’s 10 most Note: Emerging market and Indonesia USD bond yields as important export commodities, weighted by share in 2012 exports measured by JP Morgan EMBIG index and Indonesia sub-index Source: World Bank Source: JP Morgan …and external Above all, the global financial market and ultimately real economy impact, and timing, of the financing and market gradual phasing out of the US Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program (so-called conditions pose “tapering”) is uncertain, but keeps the risks of international market volatility and more ongoing challenges difficult external financing conditions to the fore. US yields remain well up from their levels before tapering came into focus in May, with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 2.9 percent on 11 December up from 1.6 percent in April. Dollar sovereign borrowing costs for emerging markets have increased by approximately 160 basis points in 2013 on average (as measured by the blended yield of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index). As the US Federal December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 2 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reserve negotiates the normalization of monetary policy, the likelihood of upward pressure on longer-term borrowing costs globally, along with bouts of market volatility as experienced during the tapering “dress rehearsal” period of May-August, will remain a concern. Emerging markets, including Indonesia, therefore face tighter global liquidity conditions, placing upward pressure on their external funding costs and potentially making it more difficult to rely on net portfolio investment inflows to meet external financing needs. 2. Despite strong consumption, Indonesia’s economic growth is slowing Economic growth in Tightening external financing conditions, beginning in May, have compounded the gradual Indonesia continued to transmission of lower commodity prices since 2011, precipitating a number of important moderate in Q3… economic and policy adjustments in Indonesia, and weighing on growth. The pace of expansion of Indonesia’s economy has slowed down, a trend which the World Bank expects to continue at least into the early part of 2014. Real GDP in the third quarter was up 5.6 percent yoy, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of weakening growth in year-on-year terms, down from the recent high of 6.4 percent in Q2 2012 (Figure 3). In sequential terms, growth in Q3 slipped to 5.0 percent qoq saar, down from 5.5 percent in the previous two quarters and the recent high of 6.6 percent in Q4 2012. In contrast to real GDP, nominal GDP growth picked up sharply, to 12.1 percent yoy in Q3 from 8.2 percent yoy in Q2, reflecting an increase in the growth of the GDP deflator—the broadest measure of prices across the economy—which had previously fallen to very low levels. This is line with the sharp rise in consumer prices following the June subsidized fuel price increase (Figure 4), and likely also reflects higher import prices as a result of the Rupiah depreciation. Figure 3: Real GDP growth is moderating, falling to 5.6 Figure 4: …though nominal GDP growth increased sharply percent yoy and 5.0 qoq saar in Q3… in Q3 on the back of rising economy-wide prices (real GDP growth, percent) (growth yoy, percent) 9 30 Nominal GDP Quarter on 8 Year on year Quarter saar 7 20 6 5 10 GDP deflator 4 3 0 Consumer Price 2 Index 1 -10 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 0 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations …mainly reflecting The key driver of the moderation in growth in Q3 was fixed investment, which expanded by weak investment a weak 2.6 percent qoq saar to be 4.5 percent higher yoy. Investment growth, while volatile growth… across quarters, has been on a downward trend since its recent peak of 12.5 percent yoy in Q2 2012 (Figure 5). Building investment, which accounts for approximately 85 percent of total nominal fixed investment spending, has remained resilient, in fact expanding at a rapid 9.5 percent pace (qoq saar) in Q3. The slowdown in overall investment has been driven by the smaller but more volatile components of investment spending. Spending on foreign machinery, equipment and transportation goods (together accounting for the bulk of non- building fixed investment) was close to flat in Q3 compared with Q2, leaving them well below their year-ago levels (with foreign machinery and equipment and foreign transportation goods down 0.5 percent and 8.4 percent yoy, respectively). D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 3 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly …which has put Flat or contracting demand for machinery and equipment, in turn, has limited imports. downward pressure on Import volumes contracted sharply in the third quarter, by 3.0 percent from the second imports, while export quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms. Export volumes were little-changed from the second volumes stayed quarter (declining by 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted). In combination, net exports therefore subdued added significantly to output growth in the third quarter. In contrast, Private consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of total expenditure, continued consumption growth to increase strongly in Q3, by 6.9 percent qoq saar to be up 5.5 percent yoy, despite the June has stayed strong increase in subsidized fuel prices and the monetary policy tightening, as well as the financial market turbulence and currency depreciation experienced over the quarter. The resilience of household spending reflects in part the positive impact of the Government’s IDR 30 trillion compensation package following the fuel price increase (which began to be disbursed during Q3, as discussed further in section B.1, and compares with the estimated rise in consumption over the quarter of IDR 111 trillion). Other reasons likely include lags in the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy, consistent with the still rapid pace of credit expansion recorded through September, delays in the impacts of the asset price movements seen over the quarter (which have increased import and financing costs) on domestic prices, and relatively limited near-term linkages between asset prices and consumer spending (that is, only modest wealth effects). Figure 5: Investment growth has slowed markedly while Figure 6: …with only building investment driving overall consumption growth has remained strong… positive investment growth (real GDP and expenditure constituents growth yoy, percent) (contributions to overall investment growth yoy, percent) Building Machinery 14 Private cons. Gov cons. 14 Transportation Other 12 Investment Net Exports 12 Total Discrepancy GDP 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations The construction On the production side, reduced growth was broad-based across sectors in Q3, but most sector remained strong concentrated in manufacturing and trade, hotels and restaurants. The construction sector in Q3, and the services grew by 5.9 percent qoq saar to be up 6.2 percent yoy; a slightly slower pace than in Q2 but sector continues to broadly consistent with the strong pace of building investment discussed above. Services drive growth sector growth remained generally solid, at 6.3 percent qoq saar (up 7.3 percent yoy), but a moderation in the biggest services sub-sector—trade, hotels and restaurants—was visible, with output growth slowing to 2.8 percent qoq saar, leaving Q3 output up 6.0 percent yoy, compared with a 6.5 percent increase yoy in H1 2013. Industrial output growth, excluding mining, slipped to 2.4 percent qoq saar (3.8 percent yoy). Mining output was flat compared with Q2 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, with output 1.6 percent higher yoy, but this masked diverging trends in the two main mining sub-sectors: crude oil and natural gas output remains subdued (down 3.0 percent yoy), while non-oil and –gas mining output picked up, increasing by 3.2 percent qoq saar, potentially reflecting a pick-up in production ahead of the raw mineral export ban beginning in January 2014 (see Box 1). December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 4 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly High frequency High frequency economic Figure 7: High frequency indicators are mixed but are indicators are mixed activity indicators suggest that below their previous highs but are consistent consumer sentiment remains (BI retail sales index, vehicle sales and cement volumes, 3mma yoy, percent) overall with a more below the highs seen in the 50 Motor vehicles moderate pace of first half of 2013 (i.e. before domestic demand the June subsidized fuel price 40 growth… increase), though not that sentiment is on a sustained 30 Cement down-trend. BI’s survey 20 measure of retail sales picked up to 12.1 percent yoy in 10 Retail sales November, but its growth rate remains lower than the Q4 0 2012 highs of around 17 -10 Motor cycles percent yoy. Vehicle sales growth has also slowed -20 relative to the high levels of 2012 and early 2013, while -30 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 motor cycle sales have been high since Idul Fitri but with Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations declining momentum. On the production side, cement sales over the available 2-month period since Ramadan (i.e. September and October) were up 12.9 yoy, roughly halving from growth of over 21 percent yoy seen early in 2013 (Figure 7). The HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Indonesia’s manufacturing sector suggests marginally expansionary conditions, standing at 50.3 for November. …and output growth is The World Bank expects that Indonesia’s GDP growth will slow further, to 5.3 percent in projected to slow 2014 in the base case (Table 2). Domestic demand faces headwinds from tighter financial further conditions, as discussed further in Section 5, but also from potentially longer-term constraints due to less supportive commodity prices and terms of trade than in recent years. In particular, private consumption, the mainstay of the Indonesian economy, has so far remained notably resilient, but is likely to come under more strain, denting growth. The investment outlook hinges on building investment, which in the face of tighter credit, reduced investable funds from commodity-related profits, and increased import costs (as discussed in Section 4) is also likely to slow. Election-related spending in 2014 will likely add materially to domestic demand, as campaign-related activity adds to private consumption, but is temporary in nature, and may in part substitute for other spending. Overall, risks to the growth outlook are skewed to the downside, as discussed in Section 7. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 5 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Table 2: Under the baseline scenario GDP growth of 5.6 percent is projected for 2013 and 5.3 percent for 2014 (percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) Annual Year to December quarter Revision to Annual 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 1. Main economic indicators Total consumption expenditure 4.8 5.1 4.8 3.9 4.8 5.2 0.1 -0.2 Private consumption expenditure 5.3 5.1 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.2 0.2 -0.3 Government consumption 1.2 5.0 4.4 -3.3 7.0 5.0 -1.1 -0.1 Gross fixed capital formation 9.8 4.4 4.4 7.3 3.1 5.4 -0.9 -0.5 Exports of goods and services 2.0 4.4 5.4 0.5 3.8 7.0 -1.3 -0.3 Imports of goods and services 6.6 0.5 3.4 6.8 -1.9 4.0 -1.9 -1.2 Gross Domestic Product 6.2 5.6 5.3 6.1 5.1 5.4 0.0 0.0 Agriculture 4.0 3.7 2.7 2.0 5.3 2.6 0.3 0.3 Industry 5.2 4.5 4.2 5.4 3.8 4.4 0.1 0.2 Services 7.7 7.1 6.8 7.6 6.2 6.8 -0.2 -0.2 2. External indicators Balance of payments (USD bn) 0.2 -14.0 -12.8 n/a n/a n/a 1.4 -8.8 Current account bal. (USD bn) -24.4 -30.6 -22.8 n/a n/a n/a -1.4 -0.7 Trade balance (USD bn) -1.7 -9.1 -2.5 n/a n/a n/a -1.2 -1.5 Financial account bal. (USD bn) 25.2 17.1 10.0 n/a n/a n/a 2 -8.1 3. Other economic measures Consumer price index 4.3 7.0 6.1 4.4 8.6 5.1 -0.3 -0.6 Poverty basket Index 6.5 7.8 6.7 5.4 9.7 5.2 0.6 0.4 GDP deflator 4.6 4.4 6.4 2.7 6.6 5.8 1.8 2.2 Nominal GDP 11.0 10.3 12.0 9.0 12.0 11.6 1.9 2.3 4. Economic assumptions Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 9419 10600 11800 9630 11800 11800 200.0 400.0 Indonesian crude price (USD/bl) 113 104 103 108 105 103 -1.9 -2.0 Major trading partner growth 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.1 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 Note: Projected trade flows relate to the national accounts. Exchange rate is an assumption based on recent averages. Revisions are relative to projections in the October 2013 IEQ Source: MoF; BPS; BI; CEIC; World Bank projections 3. Headline inflation has normalized but core inflation is rising Consumer inflation has Consumer prices have been volatile over 2013, reflecting first the impact of trade restrictions been volatile over on certain foods (later unwound), and then the impact of the June increase in subsidized fuel 2013… prices. While the direct impact of the fuel price increase has now faded and food price disinflation has set in following Idul Fitri, underlying inflation pressures (as measured by core CPI) have increased significantly since May. Going forward, the challenge for monetary policy will be to gauge ongoing risks of higher pass-through from the exchange rate into consumer prices (sometimes called “imported inflation”), and rising price expectations, broadly offset by the expected continued moderation in domestic demand. …but headline Consumer prices as measured by the headline consumer price index (CPI) surged by 5.5 inflation momentum is percent from June to August, largely as a result of the 33 percent average increase in now subdued as the subsidized fuel prices implemented on June 22, but also the seasonal impact of Ramadan, effects of the fuel which this year fell in July/August. This abrupt increase in the price level has elevated year- subsidy reform and on-year inflation to 8.4 percent in November. However, headline inflation momentum has Ramadan have faded… abated since August, with the headline CPI essentially flat month-to-month over this period, as transportation-related price increases have flattened out and food prices have fallen back significantly from their Ramadan-related increases in the middle of the year (Figure 9). D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 6 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly …with welcome food Domestic food prices in Figure 8: The prices of some key foods are stabilizing after price deflation having Indonesia have been volatile in a volatile year set in following a 2013, climbing early in the (price index, November 2012 average=100) volatile 2013 for some year on the back of trade 450 key food prices restrictions which significantly Ramadan 400 pushed up the prices of items Onions such as onions, chili and garlic. 350 The subsequent unwinding of 300 these measures provided some Chili price relief in the second 250 quarter, before the seasonal 200 impact of Ramadan in 150 July/August brought renewed Beef Eggs upward pressure on many 100 food prices (Figure 8). Helped 50 Soybeans Garlic by the seasonal post-Ramadan decline in many food prices, 0 three consecutive months of Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 overall food price deflation in Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations month-on-month terms through November has now lowered raw food price inflation from a peak of 15.1 percent yoy in August, to 12.2 percent in November. Rice prices have The domestic price of rice, a key component of the consumption basket of poor households increased fairly in Indonesia, increased by 5.1 percent yoy in November. This fairly modest increase was due modestly, though to relatively favorable production. Indonesia’s rice production in 2013 is estimated officially remaining well above to have increased by 2.6 percent following the final harvest of the year, to 70.87 million tons international prices (44.6 million tons on a milled basis), mainly reflecting expanded acreage, as yields are estimated to have remained at 2012 highs of 5.1 tons per hectare. The modest rise in domestic rice prices has also contributed to a reduction in the gap between Indonesian and comparable international prices (from Thailand or Vietnam). Indonesian prices were a record 90-110 percent higher (depending on quality) than international prices in June, falling to 50–60 percent higher in November. The reduction of the Indonesian-international rice price gap was also driven by an increase in Rupiah-denominated international rice prices (including an 8 percent and 29 percent increase for medium quality rice from Vietnam in US Dollar in Rupiah terms, respectively). The pick-up in core Although the lack of upward momentum in headline CPI is an encouraging indication that inflation, however, overall consumer price pressures remain contained, the recent pattern of core inflation— suggests caution is still which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel—argues for caution (Figure 10). Core needed around CPI increased by 4.8 percent yoy in November, its highest monthly reading since September inflation risks… 2011, and its recent pace of increase, a 7.7 percent annualized rate from September to November over the previous three months, has been significant. D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 7 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 9: Seasonal food deflation and fading transport price Figure 10: …but core inflation momentum has increased rises have pushed down headline monthly CPI inflation… notably (composition of monthly increase in headline CPI, percentage points) (annualized 3-month/3-month change, percent) 3.5 Other items 20 Headline 3.0 Housing & related 2.5 15 Transport, communication and finance 2.0 Food 10 1.5 Core 1.0 5 0.5 0.0 0 -0.5 -1.0 -5 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations …especially in light of One source of upward pressure on core inflation since May has likely been the depreciation cost-push pressures of the Rupiah which, while broadly supportive for Indonesia’s economic adjustment to from the weaker external constraints, adds to cost-push inflation pressures through the price of imported Rupiah goods. Given the significant 24 percent nominal depreciation of the currency year-to-date, the rise in core inflation has so far been relatively modest. However, in the absence of a counterfactual, it is important to note that inflation may have been more subdued in the absence of the Rupiah depreciation. It is also likely that the weaker Rupiah will continue to feed into inflation with a lag, as importers may absorb higher import costs for a time in order to preserve market share, but later pass on increases as a result of ongoing margin erosion. Finally, with much of the Rupiah’s adjustment to date having occurred only since August, it is too soon to know for sure how Rupiah depreciation will feed through into inflation. As a rule of thumb, however, it is estimated that a 10 percent Rupiah depreciation adds approximately 0.5 percentage points to inflation in a given quarter. In the base case, In the base case, inflation pressures are expected to remain contained, consistent with the headline inflation is weaker growth outlook, with headline inflation declining gradually through Q2 2014 to expected to remain approximately 7.5 percent. Headline inflation is then expected to fall sharply as the impact of below its recent peak, the June 2013 fuel price change drops out of the base in Q3 2014, following which headline but core inflation CPI should return to below the ceiling of BI’s current target band of 3.5-5.5 percent yoy. pressures to remain on Core inflation, however, is expected to be pushed higher in coming months (to the rise through the approximately 5.5 percent in Q1 2014) by the exchange rate and wage rises, including from first half of 2014 the impact of new minimum wage increases for 2014 (including the 11 percent increase agreed for the District of Jakarta). Risks to the base case expectations for inflation are balanced, with the outlook depending on the interplay between Rupiah depreciation, wage- setting for 2014 and temporary factors such as higher election-related spending in Q1 2014, set against the weaker domestic demand growth trend and tighter financial conditions. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 8 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly 4. Indonesia’s current account deficit remains in focus, despite slowing imports External balance Indonesia’s current account deficit showed signs of stabilizing in the third quarter, but at pressures remain USD 8.4 billion remained well above net direct investment of USD 5.1 billion, implying a central to the outlook significant “basic balance” deficit (of USD 3.3 billion in Q3). This gap highlights Indonesia’s for Indonesia’s continuing reliance on potentially volatile portfolio investment inflows, a potential economy vulnerability that is likely to remain a strong focus for policymakers and investors. In addition, although Indonesia’s overall external debt burden is low, external debt repayments are significant, adding to the currency and refinancing risks faced by the Government and corporate sector in the context of ongoing international financial market uncertainties. In the base case, the current account balance is expected to narrow through 2014, but the modest likely pace of improvement, and economic costs of import compression, argue for a continued policy focus on improving export performance and supporting foreign direct investment as a source of high quality external financing. Indonesia’s current In the third quarter of 2013, the current account deficit was USD 8.4 billion, or 3.8 percent account deficit of GDP (Figure 11), narrower than the USD 10 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP deficit seen in narrowed to 3.8 percent the second quarter. Early indications for the final quarter of 2013 are that this gradual of GDP in Q3 from 4.4 narrowing of the deficit is set to continue, with the monthly goods trade balance, as percent in Q2 measured by BPS, albeit volatile, returning to a small (USD 42 million) surplus in the month of October. Non-oil and gas export The non-oil-and-gas goods trade balance returned to surplus in August after four consecutive revenues were weak in months of deficit, and remained positive through October (Figure 12). Non-oil and gas Q3 but show some exports slowed through Q3, reflecting in part further weakening in the global prices of major signs of having picked commodity exports in the early part of the quarter, and the dampening impact of Idul Fitri up into Q4… holidays on exports. Within non-oil and gas exports, manufacturing export revenues dropped by 2.8 percent relative to Q3 2012 and non-manufacturing (including all major commodities ex-oil and gas) export revenues were down by 8.1 percent relative to Q3 2012. Early indications of export performance in the fourth quarter are encouraging, with exports across the region firming, and Indonesia’s non-oil and gas export revenues rising by 2.5 percent yoy in October, likely helped by improving demand from key trading partners such as the US and China. As discussed in Section 2, export volumes also appear to have broadly held up through the latest available, third quarter data, being up 5.3 percent yoy, showing the depressing effect on export revenues of low prices and pointing to the possible rebound of export revenues in coming quarters should commodity prices indeed have stabilized and external demand continue to increase modestly. A significant risk to exports, however, is the mooted ban on raw mineral exports, discussed in Box 1. …while the oil and gas Most of the weakening in Indonesia’s overall current account balance since late 2011 has trade deficit appears been due to the collapse of the non-oil and gas trade surplus, driven mainly by declining largely unaffected by commodity export prices. However, Indonesia’s monthly oil and gas trade balance also the increase in remains a major drag on the overall trade balance, and has moved into deficit since August subsidized fuel prices 2012. The oil and gas trade deficit stood at USD 2.4 billion in Q2 and widened to USD 3.9 billion in Q3, amplified by higher holiday season-related fuel demand but also suggesting that oil import demand has been relatively insensitive to the sharp increase in subsidized fuel prices implemented in June. Subsequent monthly data, for October, does show a significant drop in oil-and-gas imports—with the oil and gas deficit shrinking by 50 percent mom to USD 750 million—but given the volatility of the monthly data this is insufficient to gauge whether significant fuel import relief is now filtering through. D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 9 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 11: The current account deficit stabilized at USD 8.4 Figure 12: …helped by the non-oil-and-gas trade balance billion in Q3… returning to surplus since August (account balances, USD billion) (account balances, USD billion) Current transfers Income balance Non-O&G imports Services trade balance Goods trade balance O&G imports Non-O&G exports Current account balance O&G exports 15 Non-O&G trade balance (RHS) O&G trade balance (RHS) 10 20 4 5 10 2 0 0 0 -5 -10 -10 -2 -15 -20 -4 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Note: O&G: oil and gas Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Import compression is As real growth moderates and the Rupiah has depreciated, slowing imports are supporting now clearly visible, the trade balance and the gradual narrowing in the overall current account. Capital goods in providing relief for the October were 20 percent lower yoy (and down 16 percent on a 3-month moving average trade and overall basis, yoy), consistent with subdued machinery and equipment spending as outlined in current account Section 2. Imports of intermediate goods, excluding oil and gas, were down 4.1 percent yoy balance… in October, on a 3-month moving average basis. Consumer goods imports account for only a small share of imports (7 percent of total import costs, over the 12 months through October) but have been flat since August at similar levels to one year ago. Oil and gas imports are the only major import category to have remained stubbornly high during Q3 but, as noted above, even these recorded a significant slowdown in October (Figure 13). Figure 13: The weakness in overall imports has been led by a Figure 14: Manufacturing and construction together absorb contraction in capital goods almost 70 percent of Indonesia’s imports (growth of 3-month moving average of import components yoy, percent) (sectoral allocation of nominal imports in real terms, percent) 80 Manufacturing industries Construction 60 Consumer goods Services 40 Transport & com. Intermediate goods Oil and gas 20 Trade, hotel & restaurant Agriculture 0 Total Financial & bus. Services imports -20 Mining & quarrying Capital goods Utilities -40 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 0 10 20 30 40 50 Note: Intermediate goods excludes oil and gas Source: World Input-Output database 2011; World Bank staff Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations calculations …and may have The economic sectors which make the heaviest use of imports are manufacturing and further to run, but with construction (Figure 14), together absorbing close to 70 percent of total imports. Three real economic costs quarters of these—or half of total imports—are intermediate products from foreign December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 10 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly manufacturers. In addition, about 50 percent of manufactured imports into the most import- heavy sectors comprises of specific inputs to production, notably chemical and metal products, and equipment. Consequently, the expected ongoing moderation in manufacturing and construction growth in 2014 will likely assist in continuing to lower the import bill (Figure 14), but may also have implications for employment and income generation in those sectors. In addition, as described in the March 2013 IEQ, there is a sizable component of imported inputs used in the production of Indonesia’s non-commodity exports. Higher costs of imported inputs to production—due either to ongoing Rupiah depreciation or other policies aimed at import suppression—therefore may also potentially weigh on export competitiveness, offsetting some of the benefits from the real exchange rate depreciation. As the trade balance Overall, indications are that Indonesia’s trade balances are shifting in such a way as to adjustment plays out, stabilize and begin to narrow the overall current account deficit. As mentioned above, the focus on quarterly goods and services export volumes, as measured by the national accounts, have Indonesia’s external held up, and goods export revenues as measured by the monthly BPS trade data increased in financing year-on-year terms in October for the first time since March 2012 (albeit by a modest 2.6 vulnerabilities is likely percent). Import compression is visible, as described above, and even the oil and gas trade to remain deficit which has opened up since August 2012 shows some signs of narrowing. While positive for returning Indonesia’s overall external balances to a sustainable position, however, import compression comes with costs, and the pace of improvement so far has been gradual, keeping external financing vulnerabilities very much in focus. Financial account Turning to the financial account side of the balance of payments, Indonesia's capital and inflows declined in the financial account posted a surplus of USD 4.9 billion in Q3, narrowing from USD 8.4 billion third quarter as net in Q2, reflecting a weakening in portfolio investment inflows and other investment outflows, portfolio inflows despite strengthening net direct investment inflows. Net portfolio inflows eased to USD 1.8 weakened and currency billion (from USD 3.4 billion in Q2), driven by weak net inflows into both debt and equity and deposit flows securities, as also experienced by other major emerging market economies, and partly turned negative… reflecting uncertainty during the quarter regarding the timing and pace of tapering by the US Federal Reserve. Weaker offshore bond issuance in Q3 also played a role. Other investment recorded a deficit of USD 2.1 billion largely due to currency and deposit outflows. This reversed the surplus seen in Q2, which was due to a combination of seasonal USD currency inflows aimed at servicing seasonal corporate US Dollar demand. …making Indonesia Net direct investment recorded a surplus of USD 5.1 billion (from USD 3.8 billion), more dependent on reflecting strong inbound direct investment inflows of USD 5.4 billion together with a supporting FDI weakening in outward direct investment abroad to USD 0.3 billion. FDI into debt inflows instruments in Q3 2013 was at its highest level since Q4 2011 in Q3, USD 1.9 billion, up from USD 453 million in Q2. FDI into equity on the other hand dropped by 17 percent from Q2, at USD 3.5 billion. Overall, direct investment inflows appear to be holding up in the face of the weakness in global commodity prices in recent quarters and heightened regulatory uncertainty in key sectors for inbound investment, especially mining. These inflows, however, can be lumpy and are based on long-term decisions which are affected by the policy environment, which is subject to risks as described in Section 7. The current account The current account deficit is projected to reach to 3.5 percent of GDP or USD 30.6 billion deficit is projected to in 2013 as a whole, on the back of a narrowing in the current account deficit for the fourth narrow to 2.6 percent quarter to approximately USD 6.4 billion (or 3.2 percent of GDP). In 2014, the current of GDP in 2014 account deficit is projected to persist, although narrowing to USD 22.8 bn (2.6 percent of GDP) supported by subdued import growth and a mild pick up in export demand (Table 3). This baseline view, however, remains contingent on external financing conditions being sufficiently supportive, in light of the fact that Indonesia will likely continue to run a basic balance of payments deficit through 2014, increasing its reliance on potentially volatile portfolio investment flows. In addition, a specific additional risk to the trade balance is the impact of the ban on raw mineral exports, scheduled to come into effect in January 2014 (Box 1). December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 11 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 15: Weaker portfolio investment led to a lower capital Table 3: The persistence of a current account deficit is likely and financial account surplus in Q3 relative to Q2… to keep the need to support FDI in focus (account balances, USD billion) (USD billion) 16 2011 2012 2013 2014 Overall balance Overall Balance of Net other 12 capital Net Payments 11.9 0.2 -14.0 -12.8 portfolio As percent of GDP 1.4 0.0 -1.6 -1.5 8 Current Account 1.7 -24.4 -30.6 -22.8 4 As percent of GDP 0.2 -2.8 -3.5 -2.6 Trade 24.2 -1.7 -9.1 -2.5 0 Income -26.7 -26.8 -25.8 -24.6 Net direct Transfers 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 -4 investment Capital & Financial Accounts 13.6 25.2 17.1 10.0 -8 Basic balance Current As percent of GDP 1.6 2.9 2.0 1.2 -12 account Direct Inv. 11.5 14.0 16.5 13.2 Portfolio Inv. 3.8 9.2 9.9 3.1 -16 Other Inv. -1.8 1.9 -9.4 -6.3 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Memo: Basic Balance 13.2 -10.4 -14.1 -9.6 As percent of GDP 1.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.1 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Note: Basic balance = current account balance + net FDI Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations The current account While the current account Table 4: External debt repayments in Q4 2013 have been deficit, combined with deficit is projected to high, likely adding to Rupiah pressures… sizeable external debt continue narrowing (projected gross external debt repayments, USD million) amortizations, gradually, Indonesia’s gross Oct - Dec 2013 Jan-Sep 2014 contribute to external financing needs Government and Indonesia’s high remain high. Significant Central Bank 2,131 10,087 external financing external debt amortizations Private 18,894 15,617 needs add to a still sizeable level of Bank 3,720 3,074 the current account deficit. Non-bank 15,174 12,543 For example, gross external Non-bank financial debt repayments will total institutions 1,738 2,199 USD 21.0 billion in Q4 2013, Non-financial corporations 13,436 10,345 and USD 25.7 billion over Total 21,025 25,704 the first three quarters of Note: Based on external debt position as of September 2013; debt 2014, according to Bank repayments exclude domestic securities owned by non-residents, Indonesia (Table 4). currency and deposits, and other liabilities Projected total external debt Source: Bank Indonesia amortizations on this basis, of USD 41.2 billion over 2013, compare with the World Bank’s projection for the 2013 current account deficit of USD 31 billion. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 12 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 1: The potential near-term impact of the proposed ban on unprocessed mineral exports on Indonesia’s trade balance As 2014 approaches, attention has turned to the potential impact of the proposed ban on unprocessed exports, which is set to come into effect from January 2014. The 2009 Mining Law (UU 4/2009) requires all mining business permit (IUP) and Contract of Work (CoW) holders to ‘add value’ to mining products through domestic refining and processing with a five year compliance horizon. Initially set to come into force in May 2012, the proposed ban was delayed until January 2014, where based upon current regulations, IUP and CoW holders will no longer be permitted to export mineral ores or refined products of copper, nickel, tin, bauxite and iron ore, among others, that are below the minimum mineral content– all requiring smelting capacity.* At the time of writing, the implementation details of the proposed ban are still under discussion. In part this reflects concerns about the potential near-term impact on Indonesia’s mineral exports, at a time when Indonesia already faces significant external financing pressures. Commodities account for the bulk of Indonesia’s exports, comprising roughly two-thirds of merchandise exports by value. Exports of processed and unprocessed minerals in 2012 alone totaled USD 10.4 billion, around 5 percent of total exports. The overall share of processed exports in mineral exports has increased steadily, from 40 percent in 2001 to 52 percent in 2012. In broad terms, there are three direct trade channels through which the export ore ban can have an impact on Indonesia’s trade balance. The first is a negative impact, via lower exports of unprocessed minerals. The second effect on exports (positive) would occur if there are increased volumes of exports of processed minerals. The third effect, through imports of capital and intermediate goods to build and operate smelters, would have a negative impact on the trade balance. Estimating these effects requires a range of assumptions, from the future external demand for processed and unprocessed minerals through to the share of imports in the operational and capital costs of smelters and, crucially, on the timing and scale of future investments in smelting capacity. As such, any estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. A large number of smelter plans have been proposed, yet it is possible that not all the proposals that have been announced will be built. Further, of those likely to be economically feasible, significant uncertainty persists regarding whether proposed smelters will be operational by early 2014, especially given the long lead times required to construct smelters before commencing operations. Noting this uncertainty, two potential scenarios may be considered, relative to a baseline where no export ban is enforced, to simulate the potential impact of enforcing the ban on Indonesia’s trade balance, reflecting differences in the pace with which new proposed smelting capacity comes on-line. In the first scenario all the proposed additional smelters that are considered realistic by a recent Support for Economic Analysis Development in Indonesia (SEADI) study on this topic are built on schedule – these smelters are due to become operational in 2014 and 2015. In the second scenario none of the new proposed smelters becomes operational within the timelines set by the law and the export ban is enforced. In the first scenario, where feasible smelters come online as anticipated by SEADI, the impact of the increase in processed mineral exports on the trade balance is more than outweighed by the fall in unprocessed mineral exports, at least in 2014. Further, capital imports to build the smelters would be expected to provide a further significant drag on the trade balance. In 2014 the ban is projected to add an additional USD 6 billion to the trade deficit. However, from 2015, the ban would result in a relatively neutral impact on the trade balance, relative to the baseline, as capital imports resulting from smelter construction start to tail off and gains from higher value processed exports begin to offset the loss unprocessed mineral exports arising from the ban. In the second scenario, where no new smelting capacity comes online, the fall in unprocessed mineral exports weighs heavily on the trade balance, without any corresponding increase in processed mineral exports. The nominal value of lost export earnings increases steadily each year from around USD 5 billion in 2014 to almost USD 8 billion in 2017, reflecting foregone increases in unprocessed mineral exports over this period. This simulation exercise demonstrates the potential significant downside risks to Indonesia’s trade balance from the ban’s enforcement, particularly should new domestic smelting capacity be subject to significant delays, resulting in insufficient capacity to process raw minerals onshore, with flow on impacts to mineral exports. Even in the comparatively more optimist scenario (i.e. Scenario 1), where all smelters evaluated by SEADI as being economically feasible come online, the ban would still result in a significant, negative shock to Indonesia’s trade balance of around USD 6 billion in 2014. Such a shock would add around 0.6 percentage points of GDP to Indonesia’s current account deficit in 2014 moving the projected current account deficit from 2.6 percent to 3.2 percent of GDP, all other things being equal. This would lead to increased external financing needs at a time when global financing conditions become less favorable. In addition, to the extent that investors view enforcement of the ban as a further negative signal of the quality of the domestic policy environment, this could affect portfolio and FDI capital flows (offsetting any FDI inflows associated with any new smelting projects). Relatedly, it is important to note that the above simulations do not cover the longer-term, potentially distortionary, implications of the ban on economic production structures nor cover a detailed assessment of the ban’s underlying economic policy objectives or of its likely effectiveness in achieving these objectives. *MEMR regulation 7/2012 required COW and IUP holders to formulate smelting plans, define minimum standards for domestic processing and refining, and imposed a ban on the export of raw mineral ores within three months of the regulation (by May 2012). Partly due to lack of capacity, the ban was subsequently pushed back by MEMR 11/2012 to January 2014. In the interim period from May 2012 to January 2014, COW holders have been permitted to continue to export unprocessed minerals without additional restrictions. IUP holders have been permitted to continue exporting unprocessed minerals provided they pay a 20 percent export tax and are able to renew monthly export permits. Note: The list of proposed new smelters used in this analysis is drawn from the report “The Economic Effects of Indonesia’s Mineral- Processing Requirements for Export”, USAID, 2013, under the SEADI project for the Indonesian Ministry of Trade December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 13 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly 5. Credit conditions are expected to tighten further moving into 2014 The Rupiah has Indonesia’s sizeable external debt servicing and financing needs, and the resultant increased depreciated recently, foreign currency demand, are likely an important factor behind the renewed weakening of with significant gross the Rupiah since October. After strengthening to IDR 11,020 per USD in late October, the external funding needs Rupiah spot rate has subsequently weakened to IDR 12,000 on 11 December, leaving the in Q4 a likely factor… Rupiah down 24 percent against the US dollar so far this year. The Rupiah has now depreciated by almost 18 percent on a nominal trade-weighted basis through 12 December 2013, and by 8 percent in real effective terms through October. …but measures of Significantly, however, the Figure 16:…but measures of onshore FX spot market liquidity currency market recent renewed depreciation conditions have improved since mid-year liquidity conditions has not coincided with a (daily average turnover, USD billion) have improved on the pronounced tightening in 2.0 Domestic Banks levels seen in Q3… currency market conditions Overseas Banks through November, as Other customers measured by average 1.5 Daily average: 2011 turnover in the onshore spot market. This follows a Daily average: 2012 number of measures taken Daily average: 2013 1.0 by Bank Indonesia to improve onshore market liquidity, and facilitate adjustment in the Rupiah 0.5 exchange rate towards its equilibrium level. These measures have included 0.0 relaxing US Dollar Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 purchasing requirements for Note: Average daily spot FX market turnover by counterparty; 2013 exporters, extending the daily average to end-November maturity of the BI US Dollar Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations term deposit facility to up to 12 months, as well as holding regular US Dollar swap auctions to facilitate hedging of currency risks. Daily turnover on the onshore spot FX market has averaged around USD 500-600 million through end-November, well above the daily average of around USD 350 million seen through late August and early September (Figure 16), while spreads between the onshore spot rate and offshore forwards have remained tight. …while BI has Commensurate with the flexible approach to the Rupiah seen in recent months, Bank maintained a strong Indonesia has stated clearly that its near-term focus is on supporting the improvement in the focus on facilitating external balance. Since the previous October 2013 IEQ, BI has increased its policy interest external balance rate corridor by 25 bp (at its scheduled November Board of Governors meeting), taking adjustment cumulative interest rate increases since June to 175 basis points. The level of foreign reserves also stabilized and then gradually increased, to USD 97.0 billion at end-October where it remained through end-November, up from the recent low of USD 92.7 billion at end-July. As of September, BI had a short net open forward position of USD 5 billion, built up mainly as a result of the US Dollar swap auctions conducted since July to support the commercial availability of foreign currency hedging. D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 14 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Domestic bonds and The depreciating Rupiah, increase in short-term rates, and deceleration in output have taken equities have their toll on domestic bonds and equities which, after rebounding strongly from their late- experienced renewed August to early-September lows, have since October experienced renewed weakness. The weakness in Q4 domestic bond market rallied strongly from mid-September until late October, but yields have subsequently backed up again, returning long-term domestic interest rates to close to their highest levels of the year (with the 10-year benchmark yield at 8.80 percent, an increase of 350bp over the course of the year). Domestic equities initially bounced back strongly from their late-August lows, but stock prices have subsequently softened, leaving the Jakarta Composite Index down 2.6 percent for the year through 12 December. In October and November, offshore investors remained net sellers of Indonesian equities, selling a net IDR 6.9 trillion worth of stocks over this period, compounding a period of sustained net selling since the downturn in global risk appetite for EM assets, with a cumulative IDR 36 trillion worth of Indonesian equities sold since the end of April. In contrast, offshore bond investors have been significant net purchasers of bonds, with cumulative net purchases of IDR 42.8 trillion worth of bonds since inflows resumed in early September (through 6 December), to take their holdings of total domestic government bonds to 32.5 percent Nominal credit growth Despite the tightening in monetary policy since June, bank lending growth has remained remained strong buoyant in nominal terms, up 22.2 percent yoy in October. However, it is important to note through October, that credit extension has been boosted by exchange rate effects, which has increased the boosted by exchange Rupiah value of foreign currency-denominated lending, which accounts for 15 percent of rate effects, but has bank credit outstanding; year on year growth in foreign currency lending in Rupiah terms has come down in real risen from 15 percent yoy in May to 24 percent yoy in October (Figure 17). Furthermore, terms… real credit growth (deflated by contemporaneous CPI inflation) has continued to ease, to 12.8 percent yoy in October, from 18 percent yoy at end-2012 (Figure 18). …and while residential Although the most recent data point to strong growth rates, market reports now point to a mortgage activity tightening in property-related credit by some major banks, likely weighing on future property accelerated in Q3 price growth. Growth in property-related credit rebounded to 30 percent year on year to market reports point to September, up from 20 percent in June, the fastest pace of growth since the introduction of a tightening in tighter loan-to-value (LTV) requirements for residential mortgages in July 2012. The recent property-related credit strength in property credit reflects a pickup in growth in residential mortgages, which conditions… account for 60 percent of total property related credit. These figures also suggest that macro prudential measures to contain the pace of property lending have so far had a limited impact, with Bank Indonesia having introduced further tightening in LTV ratios for residential mortgages financing second and third homes in July 2013. Supported by strong property lending, residential house prices continued to show robust growth through Q3; national residential house prices were up 14 percent in the year to September, led by price growth in smaller homes. Residential apartment price growth has eased modestly since late 2012, yet remains strong at 30 percent yoy, as do rental prices for office space and sales prices of industrial land. …but credit growth is Going forward, bank credit growth is expected to fall, to approximately 15 percent yoy in likely to slow going coming quarters according to World Bank projections. In October, broad money (M2) forward… growth stood at 13 percent yoy, and the growth in time and savings deposits in particular was 11.6 percent yoy, well down from end-2012 growth rates of close to 20 percent. The aggregate loan to deposit ratio (LDR) stood at 88.9 percent in September, up from 84 percent at end-2012 and not far off the 92 percent ceiling of BI’s target LDR band, and suggesting limited headroom for credit growth to continue to outstrip deposit growth. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 15 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 17: Bank credit growth has been inflated by Figure 18: …but has slowed, particularly in real terms… exchange rate effects… (bank credit growth yoy and mom, percent) (growth yoy, percent) 60 Foreign Currency 30 15 Loans (USD terms) Nominal (LHS) Local currency loans (IDR terms) 40 20 10 20 Real (LHS) 10 5 0 Foreign currency 0 0 -20 loans (IDR terms) Monthly nominal lending growth (RHS) -40 -10 -5 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Note: Real credit deflated by CPI; October inferred from 22.2 percent yoy growth, as stated by BI Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations …amidst a tightening Alongside weaker deposit Figure 19: Rupiah liquidity has tightened and interbank in domestic liquidity growth, banks are also borrowing costs have risen conditions… navigating tighter liquidity (interest rates, percent, and excess liquidity, IDR trillion) conditions. Excess commercial Excess commercial bank Rupiah liquidity bank liquidity as measured by (RHS) BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate BI, though still substantial, is 16 250 down from its mid-year highs, 14 3-month interbank (JIBOR) rate and BI’s tightening cycle has 200 increased inter-bank lending 12 rates, with 3-month JIBOR 10 150 rising from 4.9 percent before 8 BI began its current tightening cycle in June, to 7.6 percent in 6 100 early December (Figure 19). 4 Market reports also point to a 50 tightening in domestic liquidity 2 conditions, especially for some 0 0 small- to mid-sized banks, Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 with interbank credit limits Note: Excess liquidity data available through end-October being reduced due to concerns Source: CEIC over rising counterparty risks, related to a lack of liquid interbank or wholesale funding markets and the narrowness of deposit bases. Moreover, foreign banks’ offshore funding costs have increased, consistent with general tightening in external financing conditions for Indonesian corporates. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 16 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Aggregate domestic Increasing interest rates and competition for deposits, alongside tighter liquidity, implies banking sector risk upward pressure on banks’ costs of funds, compressing net interest margins, though by how metrics remain sound much varies depending on particular banks’ funding structures and ability to re-price their credit. Profitability metrics, however, were still strong through end-October, and other aggregate banking sector indicators have remain stable, with non-performing loans remaining below 2 per cent, capital adequacy well above minimum standards, and strong profitability metrics. Furthermore, systemic risks from the weaker Rupiah and higher long- term interest rates appear contained; Bank Indonesia stress tests published in the March 2013 Financial Stability Review suggest that a 10 percent depreciation in the Rupiah would result in a decline in the aggregate bank capital adequacy (CAR) ratio of 1.0 percent. A 20 percent decline in the value of government bonds would result in decline in the aggregate bank CAR of 1.5 percent, with relatively larger CAR falls for state-owned and foreign banks, given their relatively larger holdings of government bonds. Non-bank financing Beyond bank credit, access to other forms of financing has also tightened. Growth in finance activity is also company lending, which accounts for around 10 percent of total financial system assets, has decelerating slowed to 14 percent year on year to September 2013, from 32 percent growth a year earlier. Non-bank lending is expected to weaken further going forward, in line with tighter domestic credit conditions and higher offshore financing costs (with borrowings from foreign banks accounting for 22 percent of total finance company liabilities, compared with 35 percent comprising domestic bank borrowing). Corporate bond issuance has also fallen off sharply since June, with issuance to end-November equivalent to only 15 percent of total issuance in Q4 2012.1 6. Public expenditure and tax revenue growth has slowed over 2013 The fiscal deficit The Indonesian fiscal sector continues to be impacted by weaker international commodity through November prices and the depreciation of the Rupiah. Based on the outcome of the first eleven months 2013 was 50 percent of 2013, the fiscal deficit for the full year is likely to be broadly in line with the revised 2013 larger than in the same Budget projection, as the expected slight under-shooting of revenues is likely to be balanced period last year… by overall lower disbursement of expenditures (with subsidy spending in excess of the targeted amount being offset by lower than targeted capital and material spending). During January to November 2013, Indonesia recorded a fiscal deficit of IDR 163 trillion (or 1.7 percent of GDP), versus IDR 106 trillion in the same period last year. Revenue collection experienced slightly higher growth over this period than in 2012, while expenditure growth slowed relative to 2012 but showed higher disbursement rates (Table 5). .. due to higher Budget The major reason for the significantly higher fiscal deficit in the first eleven months of 2013 disbursement … compared with the corresponding period last year was an increase in the disbursement of allocated spending. This was especially the case for social spending (including the completion of an unconditional cash transfer, Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat, BLSM, compensation following the June increase in subsidized fuel prices) and capital spending, even though social and capital spending recorded slower nominal growth overall for this period in 2013 than in 2012. Budget execution rates in these areas were likely aided by the fact that their allocations in the 2013 revised Budget projected modest nominal growth relative to the revised 2012 Budget. Fuel subsidy spending over January-November recorded a lower disbursement rate relative to the revised Budget allocation in 2013 than last year, reaching 87 percent of targeted spending for this year. The likelihood is that actual fuel subsidy spending in 2013 will again overshoot the revised Budget allocation (with November fuel subsidy disbursement still to be added to the above figures, in addition to December). Electricity subsidies have recorded slightly faster nominal yoy growth in 2013 than last year, despite the phased tariff increases in 2013, and a marginally higher disbursement relative to the revised Budget. However, this may reflect differences in payment schedules rather than a real annual increase in spending. 1 Onshore corporate bond issuance data to 27 November 2013. D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 17 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly … while revenue Total revenue collection trends in the first eleven months of 2013 were broadly similar to collection relative to those in the same period of 2012, in terms of realization of the revised Budget target, the Budget target was although nominal yoy growth was slightly higher. This resulted from a moderation in growth at a similar level to last for tax revenue collection, to 9 percent yoy from 13.9 percent yoy in 2012, on the one hand, year and a slight improvement in non-tax revenue collection on the other hand. International trade taxes contracted over their year-ago level, particularly because of a decline in export tax collection, consistent with subdued exports, as discussed in Section 4. Income tax collections from the oil and gas sector have slowed down, whereas natural resource revenues from oil and gas accelerated, with this pattern likely attributable to timing differences in the collection of these two revenue types. Despite relatively robust private consumption, VAT collection in the first eleven months of 2013 recorded substantially slower nominal yoy growth than last year (13.6 percent against 28.5 percent respectively), as well as a lower realization against the annual target. Since around 40 percent of Indonesian VAT collection comes from imports, the slowdown of imports has likely contributed significantly to this weakness. Table 5: Higher Budget disbursement characterized the Jan – Nov 2013 period, relative to previous years Nominal value (Jan - Nov) Share (Jan - Nov) Nominal growth (yoy) (IDR trillion) in revised budget (Percent) (Percent) 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 A. Revenues 1,023 1,102 1,224 87.4 81.1 81.5 22.8 7.7 11.1 1. Tax revenues, o/w 753 858 936 85.7 84.5 81.5 22.2 13.9 9.0 Income tax (O&G) 65 74 72 99.5 108.5 96.5 39.8 13.5 -2.7 Income tax (N-O&G) 317 340 368 86.3 76.2 79.2 19.9 7.4 8.2 Sales tax (VAT) 226 291 330 75.8 86.5 77.9 18.6 28.5 13.6 Int'l trade taxes 50 46 42 105.6 95.1 86.3 107.6 -8.0 -8.3 2. NTR, o/w 267 240 286 93.3 70.5 81.8 23.9 -10.1 18.8 NRR (O&G) 154 122 156 89.2 61.6 86.6 33.6 -20.9 28.1 NRR (N-O&G) 18 19 22 97.7 100.6 94.6 18.0 3.2 15.3 B. Expenditures 1,001 1,209 1,387 75.8 78.1 80.3 22.5 20.8 14.7 1. Central gov't, o/w 648 779 910 71.3 72.8 76.0 23.2 20.2 16.8 Personnel 159 182 204 86.9 85.8 87.8 19.7 14.6 12.2 Material 85 101 118 59.5 62.1 58.0 17.9 18.4 16.9 Capital 67 91 107 47.2 51.6 57.0 39.7 36.6 18.1 Interest payments 84 91 104 79.1 77.2 92.6 7.2 7.9 14.6 Subsidies 201 250 298 84.7 101.9 85.7 55.7 24.3 19.4 Energy 175 218 260 89.4 107.8 86.6 62.9 24.9 19.1 Fuel 111 148 174 85.4 107.7 87.1 86.8 33.5 17.6 Electricity 64 70 86 97.3 107.9 85.8 33.3 9.9 22.3 Non energy 26 32 38 62.6 74.0 79.7 20.4 20.4 21.7 Social 47 61 77 57.8 70.3 95.0 -13.7 27.9 26.6 2. Transfers 353 430 477 85.7 89.9 90.1 21.2 21.8 10.8 Note: O&G denotes oil and gas, N-O&G denotes non-oil and gas; NTR denotes non-tax revenues, NRR denotes natural resource revenues Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations Gross security Gross securities financing requirements of IDR 326.9 trillion as per the Government’s financing targets for revised Budget for 2013 have essentially been met, with IDR 323.0 trillion worth of debt 2013 will be met securities issued through 3 December. Issuance recovered well from the period of difficult issuance conditions from May to August, during which only limited amounts of longer-tenor debt were issued, increasing the Government’s reliance on Treasury bills with a duration of 1 year or less. As of 3 December, IDR 42.4 trillion worth of Treasury bills had been issued over 2013, compared to total Treasury bill issuance in 2012 of IDR 30.5 trillion. Nevertheless, the risk profile of the Government’s debt stock as at the end of 2013, as projected by the Debt Management Office (DMO), remains generally robust, with the average time to maturity of government debt declining only marginally, to 9.6 years (from December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 18 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly 9.7 years in 2012). In addition, only 15.7 percent of total debt is variable rate, though currency exposure remains significant with 44.6 percent of total debt projected by DMO to be foreign-currency denominated at the end of 2013. The World Bank Considering the outturn in the first eleven months of 2013, weaker commodity prices and projects that the the depreciation in the Rupiah, but also the slight improvement in nominal GDP growth in Budget deficit in 2013 Q4 on the back of higher price growth, the World Bank has revisited its fiscal projections will be 2.5 percent of for 2013 and 2014. The projected fiscal deficit for 2013 remains unchanged from the GDP and 2.1 percent of October IEQ, at 2.5 percent of GDP. For 2014, taking into account announced policy GDP in 2014 changes and also revised macroeconomic assumptions, the World Bank has revised down its projection of the 2014 fiscal deficit slightly from 2.3 percent of GDP in the October 2013 IEQ to 2.1 percent of GDP. Section B.1 provides a detailed overview of the approved 2014 Budget, and further details on the World Bank’s assumptions for the fiscal sector in 2014. Table 6: The World Bank projects a fiscal deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP in 2014, narrowing from 2.5 percent in 2013 (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) 2012 2013 2014 Audited Revised WB Budget WB actual budget A. Revenues , o/w 1,338 1,502 1,462 1,667 1,603 1. Tax revenues 981 1,148 1,115 1,280 1,246 2. Non tax revenues 352 349 342 385 353 B. Expenditures 1,491 1,726 1,686 1,842 1,819 1. Central gov’t, o/w 1,011 1,197 1,159 1,250 1,234 Personnel 198 233 230 263 261 Material 141 203 174 216 184 Capital 145 188 169 184 185 Subsidies, o/w 346 348 369 334 391 Fuel subsidies 212 200 221 211 239 Electricity subsidies 95 100 100 71 100 2. Transfers to the regions 481 529 527 593 585 C. Primary balance -53 -112 -109 -54 -88 D. Surplus/deficit -153 -224 -225 -175 -216 as percent of GDP -1.9 -2.4 -2.5 -1.7 -2.1 E. Net Financing 175 224 n.a. 175 n.a. 1. Domestic Financing 199 241 n.a. 196 n.a. 2. Foreign Financing -23 -17 n.a. -21 n.a. Key Economic Assumptions Economic growth (percent) 6.2 6.3 5.6 6.0 5.3 CPI (yoy, percent) 4.3 7.2 7.4 5.5 6.8 Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 9,384 9,600 10,563 10,500 11,800 Crude oil price (USD/barrel) 113 108 104 105 103 Oil production ('000 barrels/day) 861 840 840 870 870 Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 19 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly 7. Given prevailing risks, further progress on pro-growth reforms is needed Economic risks to the While the baseline expectation is for Indonesia’s economy to continue to decelerate only 2014 outlook are modestly, with quarterly growth remaining above 5.0 percent yoy through the end of 2014, significant… and for the current account deficit to narrow in coming quarters, these projections are subject to significant uncertainty. A further abrupt deterioration in external financing conditions is a particular ongoing risk, in light of Indonesia’s sizable external financing needs. Such deterioration could be triggered by international market developments, or specifically due to domestic economic and policy developments. This would spill over negatively into real economic activity by placing further upward pressure on interest rates, downward pressure on asset prices and the Rupiah, and could result in localized corporate sector stresses with damaging effects on private sector confidence. …particularly to the Indonesia’s GDP forecasts are particularly sensitive to the investment outlook, which investment outlook, depends crucially on the path of the real interest rate the exchange rate (as described in the but private October 2013 IEQ). In addition, there is also the risk that private consumption growth may consumption could slow more than anticipated in the base case, for example, if higher prices and interest rates, also weaken more than particularly if coupled with more asset price volatility, take their toll by eroding confidence, anticipated… household income and corporate profitability. This would be a material drag on growth, given that private consumption accounts for approximately 55 percent of total expenditure. …and there is a Overall, therefore, risks are skewed towards weaker domestic demand than in the base case. material risk of GDP Even mildly weaker domestic demand growth than currently anticipated (e.g. a reduction of growth for 2014 falling 0.5 percentage points in private consumption and investment) could reduce GDP growth to below 5 percent below 5 percent. A more severe moderation in domestic demand (with private consumption and investment growth dropping by 1 percentage point relative to the baseline), for example due to an intensification of external financing constraints, could feasibly lead to GDP growth in 2014 of below 4.5 percent (Table 7). Table 7: Modestly weaker than expected consumption and investment growth could move 2014 GDP growth down to below 5 percent (real growth, percent, unless otherwise indicated) Private Investment Overall GDP GDP growth relative consumption to baseline (ppt) 2014 Baseline 4.9 4.4 5.3 n.a. Mildly weaker domestic demand* 4.4 3.9 4.7 -0.6 Significantly weaker domestic demand** 3.9 3.4 4.3 -0.9 2009 Historical (reflecting GFC impact) 4.9 3.3 4.6 -0.7 Note: Scenarios assume private consumption and investment are *0.5 ppt and **1.0 ppt weaker than in the baseline, respectively; GFC: Global financial crisis Source: World Bank staff projections Macroeconomic The monetary policy and exchange rate adjustments seen in 2013 are broadly positive for adjustments to date macroeconomic stability, with the depreciation of the Rupiah acting as a “shock absorber” have been broadly for weaker terms of trade by supporting export competitiveness and encouraging positive for stability, substitution away from imports. Higher interest rates have helped to dampen domestic but carry costs… demand, and import demand, and are supportive of portfolio investment inflows. However, these adjustments carry costs, including by placing pressure on public and private sector balance sheets by raising the Rupiah value of external debt (particularly if there are currency mismatches), and eroding incomes through higher debt servicing and import costs, as well as introducing less easily quantifiable risks and uncertainties, such as the impact on sentiment. …and import Import growth has slowed and in the base case this is likely to continue, albeit fairly suppression in gradually, supporting a reduction in Indonesia’s current account deficit and external particular is no financing needs. However, as discussed above, import compression means fewer capital panacea… goods, and raw material and intermediate products for manufactured goods production, and so comes at a direct cost to current and future output growth. The real policy challenge for D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 20 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Indonesia is therefore not to focus on import suppression through regulatory measures, but rather to increase exports, and to secure more and higher quality external financing, particularly FDI. …highlighting the Moving into 2014 and beyond, the recent, necessary focus on near-term macroeconomic need for more policy stability, should continue to be augmented with more steps to support a virtuous cycle of reforms to support strong investment, including foreign investment, and output growth. To do so, an emphasis exports and FDI on supporting exports to ensure that the increased international competitiveness generated inflows… by the weaker Rupiah is not lost, on increasing investment efficiency, and on supporting, and enhancing, FDI inflows, is needed. While FDI, in nominal terms, has so far proved resilient, it is underpinned by three factors which have all come under varying degrees of recent pressure: Indonesia’s huge natural resource base (undercut by generally softer global commodity prices), the large and growing domestic market (undercut somewhat, at least in the near-term, by headwinds to domestic demand), and Indonesia’s potential as a regional production hub in Asia (undercut by regulatory uncertainties and skills and infrastructure gaps). Box 2 examines the recent uneven progress on improving Indonesia’s investment climate. More progress towards addressing these challenges can pay off not only in higher sustainable growth in the medium-term, but also for managing near-term risks as well, by supporting local and foreign investor confidence in Indonesia’s future trajectory and hence external financing inflows. …and a continued In the fiscal sector, fuel subsidies remain a major source of fiscal risk, dent the ability of the emphasis on flexible exchange rate to absorb shocks (given the significant impact of a depreciation in improving the quality increasing fuel subsidy costs), and divert spending away from more efficient uses, including of spending, including needed public investment in infrastructure, social protection and health programs, for through energy example. As described in the October IEQ, the World Bank estimates that a 10 percent subsidy reform depreciation of the Rupiah increases the fiscal deficit by 0.3-0.4 percentage points of GDP, largely by raising fuel subsidy costs. This stresses the importance of further reforms, such as implementing a rule-based approach to determine subsidized fuel prices in such a way as to limit the Government’s fiscal exposure to higher Rupiah-denominated fuel prices, while at the same time improving the safety net for those least able to cope with shocks, including to fuel-related prices. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 21 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 2: Update on the policies to improve the investment climate in Indonesia As of the writing of this report, the implementation of the components of the August economic policy package designed to accelerate investment has been further delayed. Three of four committed actions are outstanding: (1) expediting and simplifying investment licensing; (2) expediting revision of the “Negative Investment List” (DNI) to make the Indonesian economy more open to foreign investment; and (3) expediting agro-based investment programs (crude palm oil, cocoa, rattan) and metallic minerals (bauxite, nickel, and copper) by providing tax holidays and tax allowances as incentives. For example, the mooted reduction of the required number of licenses in the oil and gas sector from sixty-nine to eight licenses has not yet been implemented, and there are concerns that the change will be limited to the grouping of the licenses without meaningful simplification of the procedures and time to obtain those licenses. The revision of the implementing regulations on tax incentives, and the implementation mechanisms, are still to be completed. The Government continues to give conflicting messages on the progress of the DNI revision. Early in November, the Government announced that a revised DNI was almost ready and repeated its commitment to open additional sectors to foreign investment by opening up Private-Public Partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure and relaxing foreign participation in several sectors (such as pharmacies, specialized hospitals, and transport). This announcement was widely criticized by different parties in the media*, arguing that the Government is failing to protect the national interest. Domestic business interests have also voiced their support for the protection of selected sectors from foreign competition. The Government subsequently sought to soften the earlier announcement by declaring that the discussion is far from final and reaffirming their commitment to protect the national interest. The discussion on how these interests are to be balanced in a revision of the DNI continues at this time. The protracted attempts to update the negative investment list (DNI) are indicative of a broader debate in Indonesia on the relative importance of openness to international trade and investment for supporting Indonesia’s economic growth prospects . Despite the Government’s announcement that updating the DNI was a policy priority, based on the latest progress, it is not clear whether the upcoming DNI revision will in fact make it more investor-friendly and thus improve the investment climate, as intended in the August policy package. With a national election approaching in 2014, it remains to be seen how much influence nationalist, protectionist sentiments will exert on economic policy formation in the coming months. Going forward, strengthening the quality of the policy formation process, for example through improving coordination mechanisms and consultative processes and enhancing regulatory reform processes (through “whole of government” approaches and regulatory reviews) is critical to ensure that policy uncertainty is minimized, to support the FDI inflows that help to cover Indonesia’s external financing needs, and to ensure that Indonesia benefits as fully from FDI as it should. Strengthened policy formation processes would also better address the legitimate concerns of Indonesians that policies be made in the broader public interest, while enabling the Government to weigh the general public interest more effectively against more narrow business interests and requests for protection that do not benefit the economy overall. On a positive note, on October 25, the Government launched an ambitious policy package to improve the ease of doing business. The announced action plan consists of seventeen actions across eight “Doing Business” areas (aligned to eight of the ten indicators in the World Bank Group’s “Doing Business” country rankings) and is expected to be implemented by February 2014. To ensure the implementation of this policy package, and in a signal of good coordination towards making progress on these reforms, the Government has established a joint monitoring team with different government agencies, including the Presidential Working Unit for Control and Supervision on Development (UKP4). The private sector has responded favorably to the announcement of the (domestically focused) policy package, emphasizing that the reforms are urgently needed. Indonesia currently ranks 120 (out of 189 economies) in the World Bank Group’s Doing Business 2014 rankings, a slight improvement over the past few years. However, this performance is below the regional (East Asia and Pacific) average and peer countries’ performance: Philippines, China, Thailand, and Malaysia ranked 108th, 96th, 18th, and 6th respectively. Indonesia’s overall performance is only slightly better than India and Cambodia. Notes: *See, for example, Kompas, 7 November 2013 Asing Makin Mendominasi Indonesia and Bisnis Indonesia, 7 November 2013 Daftar Negatif Investasi Dihapus, Asing makin Leluasa. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 22 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly B. Some recent developments in Indonesia’s economy 1. A closer look at the 2014 Budget The 2014 Budget On October 25, 2013, Indonesia’s House of Representatives approved the Government approved by Budget for 2014. The approved Budget is non-expansionary and does not include any major Indonesia’s House of revenue or expenditure reform, except potential electricity tariff adjustment. The Budget Representatives projects an overall fiscal deficit of 1.7 percent of GDP (Table 8). Total revenues are projects a deficit of 1.7 projected to reach IDR 1,667.1 trillion, an 11.0 percent increase from revised 2013 projected percent of GDP, but revenues—revised down slightly from IDR 1,662.5 trillion in the Government’s August there are sizeable Budget proposal—while total expenditures are targeted in the amount of IDR 1,842.5 downside risks to the trillion, a 6.7 percent increase from the projection for 2013 and a small 1.8 percent increase revenue and from the initial proposal for 2014. There are, however, significant downside risks to the expenditure revenue and expenditure outlooks, mainly due to optimistic macro-economic assumptions projections and increasing fiscal financing needs. The World Bank macroeconomic and price assumptions for 2014 differ from those of the approved Budget (Table 9), resulting in the World Bank projecting a somewhat higher projected deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP. This section examines in further detail the 2014 Budget outlook. The projected The 2014 Budget anticipates a slight decline in the government debt-to-GDP ratio, to 23 narrowing in the deficit percent of GDP (Figure 20), reflecting the modest targeted deficit, coupled with assumed relative to 2013 helps to GDP growth in 2014 of 6.0 percent and inflation of 5.5 percent. These factors are offset maintain a prudent somewhat by the impact of the projected depreciation in the Rupiah on the local currency overall fiscal stance but value of the Government’s external debt. Bond redemptions and buybacks are projected, gross fiscal financing provisionally, to increase to IDR 156 trillion in 2014, up from IDR 100 trillion under the needs remain sizeable revised 2013 Budget. Consequently, gross financing needs are set to rise in 2014 in nominal at 3.8 percent of GDP terms (Figure 21), down slightly relative to GDP to 3.8 percent. Gross securities financing needs are projected to be IDR 362 trillion (3.5 percent of GDP), up from IDR 330 trillion in 2013, 80.7 percent of which is expected to be met through domestic securities issuance. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 23 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 20: The 2014 Budget targets a smaller deficit than in Figure 21: … but despite this, gross fiscal financing 2013 and further reduction in the ratio of debt-to-GDP… requirements are likely to be similar to 2013’s high levels (percent of GDP) (financing requirements, IDR trillion and percentage of GDP) Securities amortizations and buybacks Budget Deficit (LHS) Government Debt (RHS) External loan amortizations 3 35 Fiscal deficit 450 4.5 Total as percentage of GDP (RHS) 30 400 2 25 350 4.0 300 2 20 250 3.5 1 15 200 10 150 1 100 3.0 5 50 0 0 0 2.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014** 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014** Note: *Revised budget, **Budget Note: Based on provisional targets for 2014; *Revised budget, Source: Ministry of Finance **Budget Source: BI; Ministry of Finance The most significant On the revenue side, the projected 11.0 percent increase in revenues comes from both tax increase on the revenue revenues (up 11.5 percent from those projected for 2013), and non-tax revenues (up 10.4 side is higher projected percent from 2013, significantly higher than the 1.0 percent increase in the Government’s sales tax/VAT receipts August proposal). The tax-to-GDP ratio is projected to move up only slightly to 12.3 percent. The single most significant increase in revenues is of the sales tax/VAT, which sees a 16.3 percent increase from the 2013 revised Budget level (although this is below the August Budget proposal of a 22.5 percent increase). While election-related spending in 2014 may buoy sales tax receipts by lifting consumption spending, the evidence from the previous two national elections on the possible magnitude of the effect is unclear given the differing economic conditions. In addition, expected underachievement of the sales tax/VAT in 2013 (collection through November 2013 reached 77.9 percent of the revised 2013 Budget target) contributes to the World Bank’s caution regarding the approved Budget projections. The Government plans On the expenditure side, a key feature of the 2014 Budget is a 28.6 percent reduction in the to further increase spending on electricity subsidies relative to 2013 (IDR 71.4 trillion in 2014 from IDR 100.0 electricity tariffs in trillion in 2013). On October 1, PLN (PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, the state-owned 2014… electricity company) introduced the final installment of 2013’s electricity price hike. Electricity tariffs have been raised by 4.3 percent each quarter of 2013, to reach a total of about a 15 percent annual increase, relative to 2012. The price adjustments have not affected households with consumption of 450 to 900 VA. However, the Government has also set aside an IDR 10.4 trillion contingency budget for electricity subsidies in 2014. The parliament has agreed to the Government’s proposal to increase, electricity tariffs in 2014 for certain categories of industrial and commercial users to the cost recovery level, but the detailed proposal is reportedly still being discussed . The Government is also planning to remove electricity subsidies for large industrial customers, but the timing of this is still being discussed. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 24 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly … but overall energy Total expenditures are projected Figure 22: Energy subsidies still consume a significant subsidy spending is set to decrease slightly as a part of the Budget to remain a significant percentage of GDP, from 18.3 (IDR trillion) part of total spending in 2013 to 17.8 percent in 2014 2012 Audited actual 2013 Revised budget (Figure 21). The 2014 Budget 2014 Budget includes a 4.1 percent reduction 700 20 in subsidy spending compared 600 Nominal growth in 2014 11.9 to the 2013 Budget (IDR 333.7 500 trillion in 2014 versus IDR 10 -5.9 400 348.1 trillion in 2013). This 300 12.9 reduction results from the 28.6 6.4 -2.2 0 percent reduction in electricity 200 subsidies discussed above, 100 13.9 partially offset by a 6.8 percent 0 -10 increase in non-energy subsidies, including fertilizers, rice for the poor, and seeds (from IDR 48.3 trillion in 2013 to IDR 51.6 trillion in 2014). The spending allocation to fuel Source: Ministry of Finance subsidies in 2014 is IDR 210.7 trillion, IDR 10.8 trillion higher than projected under the revised 2013 Budget, reflecting primarily the higher projected Rupiah market price of fuel, offsetting the impact of June’s subsidized fuel price increase. Energy subsidy spending therefore remains a significant part of total spending (Figure 22), at 15.0 percent of total government spending under the 2014 Budget (relative to 17.0 percent projected for 2013) or 22.6 percent of central government spending. Personnel spending is The 2014 Budget also projects a 12.9 percent increase in personnel spending (from IDR projected to rise 233.0 trillion in 2013 to IDR 263.0 trillion), reflecting a planned 6 percent increase in basic significantly… salaries and a 4 percent increase in pensions, and the ongoing bureaucratic reform process in the fourteen line ministries (through which the line ministries will receive additional funding to increase basic salaries). Material expenditures in 2014 are projected to increase by 6.4 percent compared to the target in the revised 2013 Budget, despite a planned decrease of operational spending. Social spending is budgeted to increase by 13.9 percent, to IDR 91.8 trillion in 2014, including spending on the new social security system (SJSN, Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional) in the amount of IDR 19.9 trillion. The phasing out of the temporary cash transfer (BLSM) at the end of 2013, however, limits the increase in overall social spending. …while capital Capital spending is targeted to reach IDR 184.2 trillion, down 2.2 percent from the revised spending is targeted to 2013 allocation. This is a notable development given the previous sizeable annual increases reach a modest 1.8 in the budget allocations to capital spending, although raising disbursement rates would percent of GDP allow room for larger increases in actual nominal spending than in the budget allocation. Relative to GDP, this targeted level of spending is only 1.8 percent, the same level as in 2012. Though this level of capital spending appears relatively modest comparing to the pressing needs to address Indonesia’s infrastructure gaps, budget execution challenges have been the main constraints in delivering infrastructure projects.2 The World Bank The World Bank projects that the fiscal deficit in 2014 will be 2.1 percent of GDP, based on projects a somewhat less favorable macroeconomic assumptions to those in the Budget (Table 8). Given the larger deficit of 2.1 uncertain effect of the elections on boosting consumer spending, and the projected further percent of GDP in 2014 decline in international oil prices and depreciation of Rupiah, the World Bank projects that 2 For further discussion on Indonesia’s budget execution challenges in the infrastructure sector see the July 2012 IEQ. The March and October 2013 IEQs also contain analysis of Indonesia’s recent infrastructure investment spending and capital stock and discuss the importance of higher quality infrastructure for the growth of economic activity. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 25 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly total nominal revenues will grow by 9.7 percent relative to 2013, which is below the Government’s nominal growth target of 11 percent. In addition, the weaker Rupiah puts further pressure on expenditures, especially through fuel subsidies; as highlighted in the October 2013 edition of the IEQ. As a result, a reduction in the total cost of fuel subsidies is not expected to be achieved in 2014 compared with 2013 despite the June 2013 increase in subsidized prices, as anticipated savings have been eroded by higher Rupiah-denominated fuel prices. Depending on the trends in international fuel prices and the exchange rate, the possibility of overshooting the target in 2014 cannot be ruled out. Table 8: The approved fiscal deficit in 2014 is 1.7 percent of GDP, slightly higher than previously proposed (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) IDR trillion Percent of GDP 2012 2013 2014 2014 2012 2013 2014 2014 Audited Revised Proposed Audited Revised Proposed Budget Budget actual budget budget actual budget budget A. Revenues, o/w 1,338 1,502 1,663 1,667 16.2 15.9 16.1 16.1 1. Tax revenues 981 1,148 1,310 1,280 11.9 12.2 12.7 12.3 Income tax 465 539 592 586 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 Oil & gas 83 74 68 76 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 Non-oil & gas 382 465 523 510 4.6 4.9 5.1 4.9 Sales tax/VAT 338 424 519 493 4.1 4.5 5.0 4.8 Property taxes 29 27 26 25 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 Excises 95 105 114 116 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 International trade tax 50 48 54 54 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 2. Non-tax revenues 352 349 351 385 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.7 Natural resources 226 204 198 226 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.2 Oil & gas 206 181 171 197 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.9 Non-oil & gas 20 23 27 29 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Other non-tax 126 145 153 159 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 B. Expenditures 1,491 1,726 1,817 1,842 18.1 18.3 17.6 17.8 1. Central Gov’t, o/w 1,011 1,197 1,230 1,250 12.3 12.7 11.9 12.0 Personnel 198 233 277 263 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 Material 141 203 204 216 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.1 Capital 145 188 206 184 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 Interest payments 101 113 120 121 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Subsidies 346 348 336 334 4.2 3.7 3.2 3.2 Energy subsidies 306 300 285 282 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.7 Fuel 212 200 195 211 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 Electricity 95 100 90 71 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 Non-energy subsidies 40 48 52 52 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Social 76 81 56 92 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.9 2. Transfers to regions 481 529 586 593 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 C. Primary balance -53 -112 -35 -54 -0.6 -1.2 -0.3 -0.5 D. Overall balance -153 -224 -154 -175 -1.9 -2.4 -1.5 -1.7 E. Net financing 175 224 154 175 2.1 2.4 1.5 1.7 I. Domestic financing 199 241 173 196 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 II. Foreign financing (net) -23 -17 -19 -21 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 The Medium-Term The approved Budget for 2014 also includes an updated Medium-Term Budget Framework Budget Framework (MTBF) over the period 2015-2017, which projects a move to an overall budget surplus by projects reaching 2016 (Table 10) and a further decline in debt-to-GDP to 23 percent. The Government overall surplus by expects to continue with the net negative flow of official foreign financing. This expected 2016… fiscal outlook is supported by an optimistic economic growth target range moving above 7 percent of GDP in 2015 and beyond, coupled with a stable inflation rate (3-5 percent) and an exchange rate of up to 10,000 Rupiah per USD. Oil production is expected to increase December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 26 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly gradually during the next three years, though projections are downgraded from those in the MTBF in the 2013 Budget (1,010 - 1,030 thousand barrels per day in 2016). Total nominal revenues are expected to grow by 13 percent on average between 2015 and 2017, while expenditures are planned to fall gradually as a share of GDP, from almost 18 percent of GDP to slightly over 16 percent by 2017. …a target which may In light of the recent moderation in economic growth and the World Bank’s base case prove difficult to expectations, the macroeconomic projections in the updated MTBF appear difficult to achieve achieve. In addition, the move to a budget surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP by 2016 will likely be very difficult, as it requires a reduction of spending by 2 percentage points, and an increase in revenues of 1 percentage point, of GDP relative to the 2013 revised Budget figures. The latter may be feasible, but a 2 percentage point reduction in spending would be a challenge given limited discretionary space, except if achieved through reducing subsidies, which would require major reform. Given Indonesia’s development needs, working towards improving the spending mix while increasing the level of revenue-to-GDP share may be preferable to reducing total spending in order to achieve a positive fiscal balance. Table 9: Macroeconomic and price assumptions have been revised in a conservative direction from those in the August proposal 2012 2013 2014 2014 2014 Proposed Actual audited Revised budget Budget WB budget Real GDP growth (percent) 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.0 5.3 CPI (yoy, percent) 4.3 7.2 4.5 5.5 6.1 Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 9,384 9,600 9,750 10,500 11,800 Crude oil price (USD/BBL) 113 108 106 105 103 Oil production ('000 BBL per day) 861 840 870 870 870 Source: Ministry of Finance and World Bank staff estimates Table 10: The Medium-Term Budget Framework projects an overall surplus by 2016 (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revised budget Budget Projections % of % of % of % of % of IDR tn IDR tn IDR tn IDR tn IDR tn GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP A. Revenues, o/w 1,502 15.9 1,667 16.1 1,891 16.5 2,129 16.4 2,381 16.8 1. Tax revenues 1,148 12.2 1,280 12.3 1,513 13.2 1,746 13.4 2,003 14.2 2. Non-tax revenues 349 3.7 385 3.7 374 3.3 381 2.9 377 2.7 B. Expenditures 1,726 18.3 1,842 17.8 1,944 17.0 2,104 16.2 2,306 16.3 I. Central gov't, o/w 1,197 12.7 1,250 12.0 1,268 11.1 1,346 10.4 1,473 10.4 Line ministries 622 6.6 n.a. n.a. 663 5.8 725 5.6 823 5.8 Non-line ministries 575 6.1 n.a. n.a. 606 5.3 620 4.8 650 4.6 II. Transfers to regions 529 5.6 593 5.7 675 5.9 759 5.8 833 5.9 C. Primary balance -112 -1.2 -54 -0.5 75 0.7 155 1.2 207 1.5 D. Overall balance -224 -2.4 -175 -1.7 -53 -0.5 25 0.2 75 0.5 E. Net financing 224 2.4 175 1.7 53 0.5 -25 -0.2 -75 -0.5 I. Domestic financing 241 2.6 196 1.9 98 0.9 28 0.2 -22 -0.2 II. Foreign financing, net -17 -0.2 -21 -0.2 -46 -0.4 -53 -0.4 -53 -0.4 Key economic assumptions Real GDP growth (percent) 6.3 6,0 6.4 - 7.2 6.5 - 7.4 6.7 - 7.6 CPI (yoy, percent) 7.2 5,5 3.0 - 5.0 3.0 - 5.0 2.5 - 4.5 Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 9,600 10.500 9,700 - 10,000 9,700 - 10,000 9,700 - 10,000 Crude oil price (USD/BBL) 108 105 100 - 115 100 - 115 100 - 115 Oil production ('000 BBL per day) 840 870 960 - 980 940 - 960 920 - 940 Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 27 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2. An update on poverty in Indonesia This section examines The rate of poverty reduction in Indonesia has been slowing in recent years. This section recent trends in examines contributory factors to this phenomenon. Moreover, in the light of slowing poverty, and the economic growth, continued inflationary risks and relatively high rice prices, the prospects prospects for further for the national poverty rate in the second half of 2013 and first half of 2014 are examined. reduction in the short- The section concludes by looking at what can be done to accelerate poverty reduction in the to medium-term future. Indonesia’s national The official Indonesian poverty Figure 23: The pace of poverty reduction in recent years poverty rate declined rate for March 2013, according has been the slowest in over a decade by 0.6 percentage to BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik), (poverty rate, percent, and change in poverty, percentage points) points in the year to was 11.4 percent, representing a 20 2.5 March 2013, continuing 0.6 percentage point decline 18 Poverty Rate (LHS) 2 a slowing trend of from 12.0 percent in March 16 poverty reduction in 2012. For the past four years, 1.5 14 recent years the annual reduction in the 1 12 poverty rate has been below 1 percentage point, and the 0.5 10 Change in Poverty 0.5 and 0.6 percentage point 8 0 declines in 2012 and 2013 6 respectively are the lowest -0.5 4 declines in over a decade, with 2 -1 the exception of the nearly 2 0 -1.5 point increase in 2006 due mainly to food price shocks (Figure 23). Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Figure 24: The remaining poor households in Indonesia are Figure 25: …while the poor and vulnerable also participate further below the poverty line than earlier in the 2000s… less in Indonesia’s recent economic growth (2013 average per capita household consumption by percentile, as a ratio of (2013 annual change in average per capita household consumption by decile, the national poverty line) percent) 1.4 10 1.2 Poverty Line 8 1.0 6 0.8 Growth in mean expenditure Poor households are increasingly further below 4 0.6 the poverty line 0.4 2 Growth in mean decile expenditure 0.2 0 0.0 -2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: Susenas; World Bank staff calculations Source: Susenas; World Bank staff calculations Contributing factors to There are a number of reasons for slowing poverty reduction. One important factor is that this slowdown are that as poverty in Indonesia approaches 10 percent, the remaining poor households are further the remaining poor are and further below the poverty line (Figure 24), meaning that higher consumption growth is increasingly harder to required in order to maintain the annual rate of poverty reduction as in the past. At the same reach, and that time, the poor and vulnerable have participated less in recent economic growth than economic growth wealthier Indonesians. The poorest half of Indonesians saw zero or slightly negative growth continues to be in real per capita consumption between 2012 and 2013, compared to a growth in mean unequally shared consumption across the entire population of 4 percent and an average of 7 percent for the December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 28 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly richest two deciles (Figure 25). While these Growth Incidence Curves (GIC) are very sensitive to the choice of start and end dates, the pattern in Figure 25 is consistent with previous GICs since 2003.3 Box 3: BLSM, Susenas and measuring poverty With higher food and non-food prices due to the rise in subsidized fuel prices in June 2013 expected to adversely affect poor and vulnerable households in the short term, the Government of Indonesia prepared a compensation package totaling IDR 29.05 trillion or about 74 percent of the total fuel subsidy savings. It included two main components: (a) the Special Compensation Program (Program Kompensasi Khusus), and (b) the Social Protection Acceleration and Expansion Program (Program Percepatan dan Perluasan Perlindungan Sosial, P4S) (see the June 2013 IEQ for further discussion). A key component of the P4S was an unconditional cash transfer (Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat, BLSM) in the amount of IDR 150,000 per household per month for a duration of four months, provided to 15.5 million households in two payments. The BLSM was intended to prevent a temporary increase in poverty due to the temporary increase in poverty basket inflation as a result of the increase in subsidized fuel prices. The World Bank projects that instead of an increase to 12.1 percent poverty in September 2013, which would have occurred without the BLSM, poverty will have continued to fall. The extent of that fall, as measured in the September SUSENAS (the national socio-economic survey conducted by BPS, from which poverty estimates are made) depends on a number of factors. In particular, the timing of BSLM disbursements, and how this money is used, will have a significant effect on how much BLSM affects measured poverty. The SUSENAS consumption module asks households detailed question about food and non-food consumption. For various food commodities consumption over the last week is asked for, and for non-food commodities the survey asks for consumption over the last three months. SUSENAS was conducted over September 2013. The first tranche of benefits was disbursed in July and August. If this was spent on food, it would not be counted in SUSENAS, as it did not happen in the week before the survey. If this was spent on non-food, then it would be counted as occurring in the last three months, but could be reported with recall error by respondents. If the money was used instead for debt repayment or savings, then it would not be captured by the survey at all, which asks only about consumption. The second tranche was disbursed in September, at the same time as SUSENAS was conducted. Whether the money was received before the survey will determine whether it is picked up by the survey. What does past experience with BLSM’s predecessor (Bantuan Langsung Tunai, BLT) tell us about how households respond? In its 2012 Social Assistance Program and Public Expenditure Review series, World Bank analysis reports that the money was generally consumed within one week of receipt (meaning the timing of the disbursements relative to the survey matters considerably), and that it was generally spent on basic necessities – food, as well as non-food items such as clothing or education expenses. The 2008-09 experience of the BLT saw a greater amount spent on education, as the disbursement was just before the beginning of the school year, whereas in 2005-06 more was weighted towards food. With the two disbursements in 2013 being just after the beginning of the school year, covering Ramadan, and leading up to Lebaran, households are likely to have consumed more and saved less, but whether this was on food or non-food is unclear. Note: For further analysis of the BLT experience see World Bank. 2012. Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) temporary unconditional cash transfer. The use of the BLSM This year has been characterized by slowing growth and higher inflation. In particular, the unconditional cash year-on-year increase in the poverty basket price index (a measure of the price of a basket of transfer to compensate goods and services commonly consumed by the poor) in the third quarter of 2013 was 8.8 poor and vulnerable percent, driven by the effects of the rise in subsidized fuel prices from June. With this households for June’s increase in the cost of living for the poor likely to have been higher than increases in fuel price increase will household earnings or wages, the September 2013 poverty rate would have been expected to likely prevent a short- increase. Applying the macroeconomic outcomes to a household micro-data model of term increase in the poverty in Indonesia, and abstracting from the impact of the compensation package September 2013 poverty associated with the subsidized fuel price increase, the September poverty rate is projected to rate have been 12.1 percent, a 0.4 percentage point increase on September 2012 (and 0.7 points on March 2013). However, the poverty rate should benefit in the short-term from the temporary impact of the BLSM payments in the middle of the year, which saw two payments of IDR 300,000 to 15.5 million households in July/August and September. As a consequence, the temporary increase in inflation is likely to be offset by the temporary increase in income for poor and vulnerable households, and the World Bank projects that the September poverty rate will indicate a fall in poverty. Whether this decline is small or substantial depends on the timing of the disbursements, how the money is used, and when household consumption is surveyed (see Box 3). 3 See, for example, the discussion on Indonesia’s changing patterns of consumption growth from 1996 to 2010 in the March 2011 IEQ. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 29 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly However, the The temporary BLSM payments will not affect the longer-run poverty trend, as they lasted Government’s target for only four months. With poverty as of March 2013 at 11.4 percent, even if the rate of poverty rate of 8-10 poverty reduction returns to 1 percentage point per year, the Government’s 2014 target of 8- percent in 2014 is likely 10 percent (RPJM 2009-14) would be missed. Moreover, slowing growth (projected by the to be missed… World Bank to be 5.1 percent year-on-year to March 2014) and high inflation (7.2 percent year-on-year to March 2014) mean achieving even a 1 percentage point reduction in the year to March 2014 is unlikely. The World Bank’s poverty model projects the March 2014 poverty rate to be 11.0-11.1 percent (0.3-0.4 points lower than March 2013), indicating a further slowing of poverty reduction. …although depends in However, the expansion of long-term social assistance which began in the third quarter of part on the uptake of 2013 (see following discussion) could affect this outcome. In addition to the temporary the recent expansion of BLSM, the Social Protection Acceleration and Expansion Program, P4S (see Box 3 and IEQ long-term social July 2013), also included a significant expansion in benefits of two long-term social assistance programs assistance programs – a conditional cash transfer program and a cash transfer program for poor students Significant uptake of these programs (as well as the timing of disbursement – see Box 3) could result in faster poverty reduction, and possibly mean the 2014 poverty target may be met. However, significant uptake is more likely in the second half of 2014. Continued poverty Indonesia has historically spent less on social assistance as a percent of GDP (roughly 0.5 reduction will require percent) compared to other countries in the region (1.0 percent) and middle-income continued expansion of countries in general (1.5 percent).4 While the recent expansion in long-term programs social assistance… mentioned is welcome progress, commitment to the ongoing growth of social assistance will be required to help speed up poverty reduction. As importantly, getting implementation right for these programs will also determine their effectiveness as poverty reduction tools.5. …with the Government The Conditional Cash Transfer program (Program keluarga Harapan, PKH) was expanded recently significantly from 1.1 million beneficiary households to 2.4 million in 2013, with a further expansion in expanding its 2014 to 3.2 million planned. At the same time, average benefit levels will increase from conditional cash IDR 1.4 million to IDR 1.8 million per year per household. This increase in benefits is likely transfer program… to improve appreciably the adequacy of program benefits in off-setting the costs of health and educational services for poor families. …and cash transfer Similarly, eligibility among poor students for cash transfers (Bantuan untuk Siswa Miskin, program for poor BSM) will almost double in 2013 from 8.7 million to 16.6 million beneficiaries. However, its students effect on poverty will depend on the uptake of the program by students in poor households. The benefit levels will also significantly increase: primary school (SD) benefits will increase from IDR 360,000 to IDR 450,000 per year per student, while junior secondary (SMP) benefits will increase from IDR 550,000 to IDR 750,000 per year per student. The Government also Other permanent social assistance programs were also modified under P4S, but only on a scaled up temporarily temporary basis, which is likely to imply only modest impacts on poverty reduction in the the Raskin rice subsidy long run. Under the Rice Subsidy for the Low-Income Group program, (Subsidi Beras bagi for low-income group Masyarakat Berpendapatan Rendah, or Raskin), beneficiary households were able to purchase an program, although this additional 15 kg of rice per month for three months (June, July, and August), at heavily continues to face subsidized rates. This second allotment was in addition to the original allocation of 15 kg of delivery challenges rice beneficiaries were eligible to purchase per month. However, due to challenges in the Raskin delivery system, at-risk households were likely only able to purchase much less subsidized rice than has been allocated to them through the compensation program. This affects the de facto benefit households receive through the Raskin program, and lessens program benefits and impact. (See the World Bank’s 2012 Social Assistance Program and Public Expenditure Review for a longer treatment of Raskin delivery challenges). Importantly, recent P4S program reforms have been been undertaken alongside the introduction of a Social social assistance Protection Card (Kartu Perlindungan Sosial, KPS) and in alignment with a Unified Database of 4 See World Bank (2012) Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable in Indonesia. 5 See also World Bank (2012), Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable in Indonesia. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 30 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly reforms have been potential social protection program beneficiaries (Basis Data Terpadu, BDT). The use of both accompanied by the the Social Protection Cards and the BDT has important implications on potential benefits introduction of a Social across programs, especially for the very poor. For example, PKH beneficiary families will Protection Card and automatically have access to BSM, BLSM, and Raskin. When deployed in concert, these Unified database of programs have the potential of amplifying individual program benefits, leading to more beneficiaries robust poverty reduction. Future poverty Continued expansion in benefits and coverage of permanent social protection programs, reduction will be including PKH and BSM, can help boost poverty reduction in the future. The introduction supported not only by of new programs that protect currently uncovered risks, including cash or in-kind programs improved social that target the elderly and disabled, will also help protect vulnerable populations. Through protection programs further expansion and integration of existing social protection programs, and the but also by measures to introduction of new programs to address uncovered risks, the social protection system will build inclusive growth, be better able to adequately protect families from shocks and help them manage risks that for example, focusing affect them throughout the lifecycle. Programs that provide skills training and bolster formal on skills and quality sector employment are also needed to encourage labor market development and further job creation enhance poverty reduction (as discussed in the next Section). December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 31 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly C. Indonesia 2015 and beyond: A selective look 1. The labor market in Indonesia: recent achievements and challenges Indonesia has been Indonesia’s labor market has shown a continuous recovery since the mid-2000s, after the successful at creating downturn following the 1997/1998 East Asian financial crisis, and its performance in terms jobs, now its of increase in employment rate has been among the strongest in the East-Asia Pacific region. expanding labor Indonesia’s success in generating employment is explained mainly by sustained economic market has to address growth, a favorable economic environment, and a rapidly expanding service sector. This has several challenges… led to a gradual increase in service sector jobs and formalization of the economy, particularly in urban areas, largely through the increase in paid dependent employment. Despite these encouraging developments, Indonesia faces challenges in creating more and better jobs as the country continues its structural transformation (i.e., the movement of workers from poorly productive to highly productive activities). This section provides an overview of the recent achievements in Indonesia’s labor markets and outlines the main challenges faced. …such as expanding Specifically, three main challenges should be addressed. First, the largest economic sectors in employment growth in terms of employment are still low value added, and job creation since 2001 has been driven higher productivity by the expansion of low productivity sectors. Second, the informal sector remains large, sectors and to address employing more than 50 percent of total workers, with informal jobs paying lower wages, still high levels of providing less stability and not giving access to benefits. Third, investments in higher informality and productivity sectors are hampered by the limited availability of skilled workers. If such shortages of skilled challenges remain unaddressed, there is a risk that the recent welfare gains might be workers undermined, with a consequent slowdown in poverty reduction and increase in inequality. Indonesia’s labor force, According to the most recent data available from the February 2013 Sakernas labor force the 4th largest in the survey, out of a population of 175 million people aged over 15, Indonesia’s total labor force world, reached 121 was 121 million, of which 114 million are employed (Figure 26). Since February 2006, the million workers in early labor force participation rate to the total working age population increased slowly but 2013 and employment steadily, rising from 66.7 percent to 69.2 percent, while, over the same period, the share of is expanding… the employed to the working age population rose faster, from 59.0 percent to 65.1 percent, December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 32 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly reaching its mid-1990s levels. Consistently, between 2006 and 2012, the elasticity of employment to (real value-added) growth6 has reached 0.56 (meaning that a 1 percent increase in real value added translates into a 0.56 percent increase in employment, on average across sectors, over the period), against 0.47 registered between 2001 and 2005, and 0.79 registered in the early 1990s, with an average estimated elasticity equal to 0.5 between 1990 and 2012 (and not significantly different from 0 during the 1998-99 crisis). In addition to such a positive employment trend, the total unemployment rate has been continuously declining (from 10.4 percent in February 2006 to 5.9 percent in February 2013). The aggregate unemployment rate, however, remains a relatively less telling labor market indicator in Indonesia, as in other similar middle-income countries, given the high level of informal employment, as discussed below. Figure 26: Of Indonesia’s labor force of 121 million workers, Figure 27: The rise in the employment rate in Indonesia 114 million are employed (less than half in the formal sector) since 2005 has been among the strongest in the region (employment, unemployment, and formal employment, millions,) (employment rate, percent; employment rate is defined as employed aged 15+ as percent of total population 15+) Unemployment 80 140 Informal employment Formal employment Vietnam 120 75 China 100 70 80 Thailand 60 65 Indonesia 40 60 20 Philippines Malaysia 0 55 Feb-05 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas Source: World Bank World Development Indicators and World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas for Indonesia …although Indonesia’s At the regional level, Indonesia has been outperforming the Philippines and Malaysia during employment rate the second half of the 2000s (Figure 27), although is still lagging behind some other regional continues to lag some peers, namely, Vietnam, China and Thailand, largely because of the relatively poor labor regional peers, market participation of women and youth. Indonesia’s female employment rate in fact reached only very recently the threshold of 50 percent, and the employment rate of the youth aged below 25 still lies below 40 percent, and has not returned yet to its early 1990s levels (47 percent), after a continuous decline and a slow recovery started only in the mid ‘00s. Most worryingly, youth’s low labor market participation is accompanied by persistent high rates of NEETs (young people not in employment, education or training), as discussed below. Most job creation has Between August 2001 and August 2012, a total of over 20 million new jobs were created been in the formal (growth of 22 percent), with an average of 2.3 percent annual employment growth since sector, and in services February 2006 (Figure 28). Out of the 20 million jobs created, 16.4 million (82 percent) were formal jobs, according to new the definition of formal employment adopted by the National 6 Estimated using panel data of employment and real value added for 9 economic sectors (defined in Figure 30) between 1990 and 2012. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 33 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Statistical Institute (BPS) since 20017. The services sector contributed the vast majority of this rise in employment, with 16.8 million new jobs created by the sector (84 percent of the total), and as a result services’ share in total employment has reached 43 percent. The industry sector was able to create only 4 million new jobs and currently accounts for 21 percent of total employment, while in agriculture (where 35 percent of total workers are still employed) some 860,000 jobs were lost over this period. The expansion of employment in services has also driven the rise of the formal sector, with 85 percent of the jobs created in services since 2001 being formal jobs, as opposed to 57 percent in industry. Figure 28: Year-on-year employment growth has been Figure 29: Formal employment contributed four-fifths total sustained since 2005, although slowing down after 2011 job creation between 2001 and 2012 (year-on-year employment growth, percent) (cumulative contribution to total employment growth with employment in 2001=100) Informal Employment 5.0 24 124 growth since 2001 (%) 4.5 20 120 Formal Employment 4.0 growth since 2001 (%) 16 116 3.5 Total Employment 3.0 12 growth since 2001 112 (RHS) 2.5 8 108 2.0 4 104 1.5 1.0 0 100 0.5 -4 96 0.0 Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb -8 92 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas Job creation has been Job creation has been stronger in urban areas, where employment grew by 45 percent since stronger in urban 2001 against 6 percent growth seen in rural areas. Urban employment growth has gradually areas, and important outpaced rural areas’ over the last decade, and since 2008 jobs in urban areas have been geographic differences growing faster than the working age population. Also, urbanization has been importantly in employment rates associated with the rise in formality, with 72 percent of jobs created in urban areas being persist formal. The increase in formalization can be also explained by the rise in the number of salaried employees (or dependent workers), which contributed to almost 70 percent of total job creation (Figure 30). At the geographic level, although some convergence of Provincial level employment rates towards the national level can be observed over the last decade, important differences can still be registered between areas with high employment rates (over 75%) such as Bali and Papua (whose performance is likely to be explained by the natural resources extraction industries boom, in particular palm-oil), and districts with persistently low employment rates (slightly above 55%) such as North Sulawesi and Aceh. 7 According to the new definition of informality adopted by BPS since 2001, informal workers are defined according to a combination of characteristics related to the “Status of employment" and “Occupation“. “Occupation” includes 9 categories: Professional, Technical and Related Workers, Administrative and Managerial Workers, Clerical and Related Workers, Sales Workers, Services Workers, Agricultural & Forestry Workers Fishermen & Hunters Production, Transportation and Unskilled Workers, Others. “Status of Employment” includes 7 categories: Own Account, Employer assisted by temporary worker(s), Employer assisted by permanent worker(s), Employee, Casual worker in agricultural sector, Casual worker in non-agricultural sector, Unpaid family worker. Informal workers are defined as: all unpaid family workers; all casual workers and own-account (or self-employed) workers, except those working as Professional, Technical and Administrative and Managerial Workers, Clerical and Related Workers; employers assisted by temporary worker(s) in agriculture and other occupations. The main change with respect to the old definition, is that before 2001 there was no “casual worker” category in the Sakernas, so casual workers in agriculture and construction were included in the formal sector as salaried employees. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 34 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly a. The challenges of an ongoing but incomplete structural transformation Employment growth The flip side of the above encouraging labor market developments, however, is that low- occurred mostly in low- labor productivity sectors (with labor productivity defined as value added divided by the value-added, low- number of workers), with a lower share of workers with tertiary education, still dominate skilled sectors employment, and that employment creation has been mainly concentrated in low- productivity, non-skill-intensive sectors. Of the total employment growth seen over 2001 to 2012, 30 percent occurred in community, social and personal services (where 6.9 million new jobs were created), and 28 percent in wholesale, trade and retail (5.7 million). Manufacturing contributed only to 16 percent of total growth (3.3 million), slightly above construction (14 percent, corresponding to 2.9 million new jobs). The negative correlation between employment growth and productivity growth between 2001 and 2012 (Figure 31), seems to suggest that job creation has not been fully productivity enhancing, and that there is room for improving the efficiency of labor reallocation from agriculture to industry and services and from low to high productive activities both within and across sectors. Figure 30: Low value-added sectors in services have Figure 31: Employment growth and labor productivity contributed mostly to job creation between 2001 and 2012 growth are negatively correlated (sector and employment status contribution to total employment growth (employment and labor productivity growth, 2001-2012, percent) between 2001 and 2012, percent) 120 Labor productivity growth rate 140 Transport 100 Soc.&pers.svcs 4.5% 30.3 Trade & retail 100 80 Manufacturing Construction 68.6 60 Trade & 60 28.5 Agriculture Soc. & Finance Employees retail 35.1% pers. 20.9% 40 Mining 20 services 16.3 Transport 15.4% Construction 6.1% 20 14.9 Casual 27.3 Electricity,gas -20 Electricity, 7.7 workers Manufacturing gas 0.2% Agriculture Self employed 4.9 13.9% 0 Mining Finance Sector Employment -60 1.4% 2.4% status -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 -20 Employment growth rate Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas Note: bubble size indicates each sector’s share in total employment in 2012. Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas As a result, wage This evidence is consistent with the findings that average real wage growth has been growth has been relatively modest compared to aggregate productivity growth, over the 2002 to 2012 period. moderate, but Real wages (including wages from formal sector employees) grew by 21 percent since 2001 important income gaps (Figure 32), averaging 2 percent in terms of real annual growth, which appears quite persist between formal moderate compared to an average yearly real GDP growth rate of 5.4 percent, and to a total dependent and non- growth in labor productivity of nearly 50 percent over the same period. Figure 32 also dependent workers… suggests that the growth in real earnings (income from work for the self-employed and casual workers, both formal and informal) has been much slower, only 5 percent over the whole period, resulting in persisting income gaps between formal dependent (salaried employees) and non-dependent workers. …and there is The sectorial breakdown also shows other important differences: wages in mining have been considerable variation growing twice as fast as the national average, reflecting the boost to incomes in the sector in wage growth from global commodity prices and demands over this period. However, the job expansion amongst sectors potential of this sector remains limited. In contrast, total wages in a potentially skill-intensive sector such as manufacturing have grown less than the national average, reflecting poor productivity growth. Finally, the variation in real wages within services, ranging from finance down to trade and retail, is marked, again reflecting differences in skill intensities. D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K DU N IA 35 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 32: Important wage differences exist between sectors, Figure 33: Dependent employment is on the rise, but most and within sectors between types of employment workers are still employed in vulnerable forms of work (real average monthly income from work by sector, thousand IDR, ref. (employment composition by status, percent) year 2007) Wages 2012 Earnings 2012 40 Wages 2001 Earnings 2001 National avg 2012 National avg 2001 35 2,000 30 employees 1,500 25 employers self employed 1,000 20 500 15 unpaid family workers 0 10 casual workers 5 0 Note: Earnings refers to income from work for the self-employed Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas and casual workers, both formal and informal Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas b. “Good jobs” rising, but many workers remain informal and vulnerable Although “good jobs” The presence of a large informal sector still employing more than 50 percent of total are increasing, more workers (70 percent in rural areas) remains one of the most serious challenges for the than 50 percent of total Indonesian labor market. Although the share of “good jobs” in total employment (defined employment is still here simply as the share of formal dependent employees) rose from 27.7 percent to 36.4 informal and percent between August 2001 and August 2012 (Figure 33), a large share of the employed vulnerability remains pool is still highly vulnerable, including nearly 18 million unpaid family workers and some high for many workers 11.5 million casual workers (16 percent and 10 percent of total employment, respectively). In addition, a decrease in the number of casual workers in agriculture has been offset by the rise of casual workers in non-agriculture sectors, and although the number of employers with permanent workers is increasing, those with temporary workers still represent 82 percent of total employers. Finally, workers on own account (or self-employed in a strict sense), which are more likely to be vulnerable and low-productivity, although declining in number, still add up to some 18.5 million (17 percent of total employment). Vulnerable forms of work offer less protection against risk and shocks, do not enable access to social benefits, and provide lower income. For example, as of August 2012, casual workers and self-employed average earnings amount to 48 percent and 65 percent of employees’ average wage, respectively, compared to 45 percent and 75 percent as of 2001, which could explain part of the overall rise in inequality seen in Indonesia over this period. There is a high The incidence of vulnerable forms of employment shows a high variation across sectors and variation in the share provinces, also because of persistent non-compliance with Minimum Wages policies (see the of vulnerable workers December 2012 IEQ). Data constraints limit the possibility of assessing the impact on across sectors and employment of the spike in Minimum Wages levels across provinces in 2013, (in Jakarta, the geographic areas increase was over 40 percent). However, the Sakernas data show that as of 2012, the largest employment sectors (Wholesale and retail trade, and Community, Social and Personal Services ) exhibit high shares of workers paid below minimum wages: 50 percent and 45 percent respectively, which rise dramatically for informal workers (80 percent and 86 percent, respectively). These figures are even higher in agriculture, where nearly 80 percent of all workers are paid below the Minimum Wage. At the provincial level, non-compliance is above 60 percent in West Nusa Tenggara and West Sulawesi (over 75 percent for informal workers), and close to or above 50 percent in other 12 provinces (including Jakarta and Yogyakarta, and particularly high in Lampung, Aceh, South Sulawesi and South Kalimantan). December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 36 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly c. Coping with a largely unskilled labor force Indonesia’s workforce Nearly 50 percent of Indonesia’s workforce still possesses at most elementary education, remains largely while only 6.3 percent has a university, or 4-year diploma, degree (Figure 34). This is despite unskilled, with only 6.3 the substantial progress Indonesia made in increasing enrolment rates in secondary and percent with tertiary tertiary education for the youngest generations, and the rise in the share of the labor force education… with upper or lower secondary education from 35 percent up to 44 percent between 2001 and 2012. A low-skilled labor force represents a serious challenge for improving productivity and for meeting employers’ demands in a rapidly changing labor market, in particular given the low propensity of Indonesian firms towards providing training. As a result of this mismatch problem, a dramatic share, over 40 percent, of youth aged 15-24, remains out of education, training or work as of 2012 (Figure 35), without showing improving trends since 2001, which can seriously undermine their possibility to find good jobs in the future. Figure 34: Although the labor force has become more Figure 35: Over 40 percent of Indonesia’s youth aged 15-24 skilled, less than 8 percent has a university degree are not in employment, education or training (labor force composition by highest educational attainment, percent) (youth aged 15-24 not in employment, education or training, percent) 70 60 Male Female elementary or lower 60 50 50 40 40 upper & lower secondary 30 30 20 20 university or 4-yr diploma 10 10 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas Source: World Bank staff calculations using Sakernas …representing one of a In summary, the Indonesian labor market, sustained by strong job creation, is transforming number of labor towards greater formalization of its workforce. However, a number of important challenges market challenges remain: most of the jobs created over the last decade are in low-productivity sectors; over 50 facing policymakers percent of existing jobs are still informal, offering no protection to workers; the labor force is still largely unskilled, and finally women and young people still exhibit low labor force participation rates. These challenges need to be addressed by policymakers and all stakeholders, before the demographic bonus of an expanding labor force expires. In addition, greater regional integration following the onset of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 will lead to more competitive pressure on the domestic labor market. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 37 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2. Local capacity and development in Indonesia New study evidence Democratization and decentralization in Indonesia during the post-1998 Reformasi period sheds light on the have brought with them changes in the relationship between the State and society. In rural changes of rural communities villagers are now free to exercise their electoral rights to choose the village community capacity head without first having to secure approval from the district level. Village heads now have and the role of village better access to resources in the district. There has also been an increased emphasis on government to address community-driven development (CDD) throughout the country, giving more voice and local problems in a decision-making authority to communities in choosing and implementing development decentralized, projects that best suit local needs. This section aims to shed light on whether and how democratic Indonesia community capacity is affected over time, by these shifts of national policies on democratization, decentralization and CDD and their complex interactions at the local level, drawing on the newly-released results of the third round of the World Bank Local Level Institutions Study (LLI3), conducted in 2012.8 a. A brief history of community-driven development in Indonesia Indonesia’s flagship The year 2013 marks fifteen years of implementation of the Indonesia National Community community-driven Empowerment Program (Program Nasional Pemberdayaan Masyarakat, PNPM), the largest development program, CDD program in the world. Since its initiation in 1998 as the Kecamatan Development PNPM, was grounded Program (KDP), PNPM has operated based on the tenet that the local community has the in community capacity capacity to identify, prioritize, select and implement development projects that best meet … their needs in improving their well-being.9 This principle was informed by the first Local Level Institutions Study (LLI1), carried out in 1996 by the World Bank. …following a study Reflecting the growing focus of the global development community on local institutions and which found that while social capital at that time, the LLI1 was conducted with the objective of understanding the communities still had role of local level institutions and social capital in the delivery of basic services and welfare capacity for collective improvement. The study – carried out in 48 villages in 3 provinces (Central Java, Jambi, action to solve their Nusa Tenggara Timur) – found that, despite the fact that Indonesia at that time was still common problems, under a highly centralized, authoritarian regime, local capacity – defined as the ability to this was undermined solve common problems collectively – remained strong in most of the study villages. This by top-down capacity, however, was constantly undermined by local governments, which delivered top- government down development projects that did not take into account specific needs at the local level.10 development policies These findings paved the way for the design and implementation of the KDP, which and projects that did provided local communities with alternative open spaces for deliberating their development not take into account needs and resources to carry out chosen projects. Barely a year after KDP started, Indonesia local needs underwent massive political changes with the demise of the Suharto regime in 1998 and the beginning of decentralization era in 2001 Democratization and The dawn of democracy and decentralization raised the question of what impacts these decentralization began changes would have on local capacity and the relationship between the State and society. In opening the space to particular, would the opening up of political space bring better opportunities for the local improve relationships community to be involved in decision-making over development projects and thus improve between communities the match between projects and local needs? To answer these questions, the follow-up LLI2 and their village study was commissioned in 2000-2001 to focus in particularly on the changes in local state- governments, and to society relationships and how these changes influenced welfare and local governance. strengthen local capacity… The study found that local capacity still existed in most study areas and that there were 8 This note draws on Wetterberg, A., Dharmawan, L., & Jellema, J.R. (2013, forthcoming) The Local Level Institutions III: Overview Report. World Bank/PNPM Support Facility. Jakarta. For more information about PNPM Support Facility, please visit http://pnpm-support.org/. 9 In 2007, the Government of Indonesia scaled up KDP and its urban sister the Urban Poverty Project, UPP, and launched the programs under one umbrella program called PNPM. 10 Chandrakirana, K. (1999). Local capacity and its implications for development: The case of Indonesia. World Bank/Bappenas. Local Level Institutions Study, Jakarta; Evers, P. (2003). Village governments and their communities. World Bank/Bappenas. Local Level Institutions Study, Jakarta.. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 38 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly indications of increased opportunities for local community participation in decision-making over development projects, although most projects still did not deliver satisfactory outcomes. For example, incidents of protests against village heads increased, but without typically precipitating any real or lasting changes. New elected village councils (BPD, Badan Perwakilan Desa), which were tasked to hold village government accountable, began to operate in some areas, although confusion over their functions and limitations in terms of operational support somewhat limited their ability to perform.11 This perceived lack of change, however, was not entirely unexpected considering that the study was conducted only a few years after the economic and political turmoil of 1997/1998, and around the time of the 2001 decentralization reforms. …but have the changes More than a decade after the political shift in 1998, decentralization in 2001, and the been sustained after implementation of KDP/PNPM in over 60,000 villages, these changes were expected to more than a decade? affect local capacity. To better understand these changes, a third round of the LLI Study was conducted in 2012, with the objective of tracing developments in local capacity since LLI2, over a decade before, and to determine whether there had been shifts in the influence of different community groups over government decision-making, project implementation, and state resources at the district and village levels, and whether these shifts have any link with changes in local capacity. b. Understanding changes in local capacity since 2001 The LLI studies collect In the LLI studies, local capacity is defined as the ability to solve common problems data on the type and collectively. To measure this, the studies collect and trace data on the type and number of number of common common problems existing in study villages and investigate whether those problems were problems, if they were addressed collectively and, if so, whether successfully. Villages are then grouped into three addressed and, if so, categories of capacity (high, medium, low) based on the frequency of collective actions and whether successfully degree of success in addressing problems. Box 4 provides an overview of the survey methodology. Communities report In order to trace changes in capacity since LLI2, the LLI3 study first tabulated the numbers fewer social problems and type of problems found in study villages and then looked at how many problems have in 2012 than in 2001, been successfully solved collectively. The study finds that communities experienced fewer but more economic common problems compared to LLI2 and that the nature of the problems has shifted. In and service delivery particular, communities reported more economic and service delivery-related problems, problems while social problems (such as gambling and drinking) were barely mentioned. There is also an apparent increase in “overwhelming” problems that are difficult to solve at the local level such as natural disasters and high prices of inputs for agricultural production. Overall, the likelihood The number of collective actions to solve common problems declined in all study areas. This of a community could partly be explained by the increasing number of “overwhelming” problems that are successfully resolving a beyond a community’s capacity to address. The degree of success in solving common problem was problems, the study finds, remains largely the same as in LLI2. These general patterns, unchanged but there however, mask the substantial variation in changes of capacity across surveyed villages. Of was substantial the twenty villages revisited in LLI3, almost half (nine) retain similar capacity. In particular, variation in the more than half of the high capacity villages, as classified by LLI2, have built on their earlier changes in capacity successes in addressing more recent problems, showing persistence. This suggests that high across villages capacity villages are resilient, even in the face of the political shifts faced during the past decade. Villagers’ own efforts A quarter of surveyed villages (five) had increased their capacity. It is particularly supported by reformist encouraging that all but one of the villages with improved capacity were low capacity villages village leaders have in LLI2. Low capacity villages, by definition, have a history of not mobilizing collectively, helped to improve and their increased capacity appears to have been driven mostly by villagers’ own efforts, capacity such as finding better income resources, regaining control over natural resources, and 11 Dharmawan, L. (2002).Dynamics of Local Capacity and Village Governance: Findings from the Second Indonesian Local Level Institutions Study Central Java Report.. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 39 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly engaging various mechanisms to hold village leaders accountable . Other factors that also reinforce the community’s efforts in these villages are reformist village leaders who listen to and work for villagers’ interests and, to a lesser extent, external agents such as non- governmental organizations (NGOs), especially related to land and forest use disputes. Persistent problems About a third of villages (six) experienced a decline in capacity. These villages suffer from with issues related to persistent problems with issues relating to deteriorating natural resources, such as access to deteriorating natural drinking water and land disputes. There are also signs of reduced reciprocity (gotong-royong) in resources, such as these villages, signaling a decrease in social capital. Three of the villages that experienced access to drinking declines in capacity were villages that experienced a status change from village (desa) to urban water or land disputes, ward (kelurahan). This means that these villages no longer have elected village heads who are exacerbated by non- accountable to the villagers.12 In addition, most village heads in the remaining three villages reformist leaders are weak (unable to implement decisions), and having unresponsive leaders who do not destroy local capacity work in villagers’ interests is one of the main factors causing decline in village capacity. Box 4: Local Level Institutions Studies methodology The Indonesian Local Level Institutions Table 11: Comparison of Key Research Aspects in LLI1, LLI2, and LLI3 (LLI) studies are longitudinal, using both LLI1 (1996) LLI2 (2000/2001) LLI3 (2012) qualitative and quantitative methods, Key issues  Local capacity  Local capacity  Local capacity aiming to identify the preconditions for  Social capital  Social capital  Social capital and constraints on local capacity—  Village  Village governance  Village governance defined as the ability to solve common governance  Crisis response  District governance problems collectively—and the extent to  PNPM which state structures complemented or impeded villagers’ problem-solving Research  Qualitative  Qualitative data  Qualitative data efforts. The LLI was first conducted in methods data collection collection collection 1996 in 48 villages in three provinces  HH survey  HH survey  HH survey (Central Java, Jambi, and NTT). The  Ethnography locations were chosen to ensure Districts 1. Batanghari 1. Batanghari 1. Batanghari geographic and socio-economic variation. (re-)visited 2. Merangin 2. Merangin 2. Merangin The Batanghari and Merangin districts in 3. Banyumas 3. Banyumas 3. Muara Jambi Jambi represent Sumatra, with economies 4. Wonogiri 4. Wonogiri 4. Banyumas mostly based on plantations and cash 5. Ngada 5. Ngada 5. Wonogiri crops (rubber, palm oil, coffee, etc.), 6. Timor Tengah 6. Ngada Selatan 7. Nagakeo relatively good transport infrastructure Number of 48 40 20 (qualitative) and a mid-range population density. The villages 40 (quantitative) Banyumas and Wonogiri districts in Central Java represent the island of Java, the most densely populated area of Indonesia. Ngada and Timor Tengah Selatan (TTS) districts in NTT represent Eastern Indonesia, which is more arid, less densely populated, and has lower than average incomes. Village research sites were chosen to capture upland and lowland communities with varying access to the sub-district capital. In LLI2, only 40 villages were revisited because TTS was at that time inaccessible for security reasons. In the latest, third, round of LLI, 20 villages were revisited for qualitative data collection while quantitative data collection was conducted in all 40 villages from LLI2. Table 11 shows the comparison of key research aspects of the three rounds of LLI. For the qualitative component of the studies, researchers conducted interviews with relevant key informants at district and village levels, such as the district head (or secretary), officials from district offices (planning, rural/community development), district parliament (DPRD, Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah) members, NGOs/CSOs, village heads, representatives from community empowerment bodies (BPM, Badan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat/LPM, Lembaga Pemberdayaan Masyarakat) and religious/adat/community figures. The interviews helped collect data on, among others, problem solving; leadership, network and institutional profiles; as well as projects profiles (including PNPM). The studies also conducted a series of focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members. Topics of the FGDs included (1) land use, power relations, and natural resources threats, (2) production, consumption, threats to survival and getting ahead, (3) Government role and relations, and (4) problem-solving. For the quantitative component, the studies conducted a panel household survey, including modules on household characteristics and consumption, household involvement/membership in organizations (formal and informal) and the benefits, common problems that households faced in their areas, patterns of ownership of land and other resources, social interaction and trust, recent crises and crisis resolution mechanism, village government (satisfaction, transparency and accountability). Note: see Wetterberg et al 2013 (forthcoming) for more information 12 Kelurahan is lead by a lurah who is appointed by district head and thus responsible only to the district, not to the villagers. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 40 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly c. Democratization, decentralization, CDD and local capacity… Democratization has With democratization, village heads are democratically elected by villagers. During the enabled villagers to Suharto era candidates had to obtain the approval of the district government to be able to choose reformist, pro- run and be inaugurated. Elections now take place periodically and candidates are not community village imposed by supra-village governments. Further, term limits, involving a maximum of two 6- heads that support year terms, for village heads have been enforced post-2001. The democratization also helps local capacity… reduce space for dynastic leadership, which was common in the past, and has broadened candidate slates. …and provided new Free elections have made village heads more responsive to villagers’ interests and seen them prominence for village play a stronger role in solving identified collective problems. Strong village heads can be heads, enabling them more effective in dealing with external actors (e.g., investors) and supra-village governments to play a bigger role in to solve community problems. For example, one village head in the study area participated in problem solving a network of thirty village heads to have the repair of the provincial road passing their villages approved just before the re-election of the incumbent governor, demonstrating a strong organizational ability to obtain benefits from the district level. Another village head mobilized his network, including working with regional and national NGOs, to reclaim villagers’ land from concessions issued by the central government (although, unfortunately, villagers also suspected that he disproportionately benefited from this effort). Decentralization has The strength of the village head position is increased further by the fact that decentralization increased village gives village heads direct access to district heads (bupati) and the district sectoral offices heads’ access to which manage large funds from the central government. Previously, this contact was district-level intermediated through the sub-district. However, in order to obtain funds (and projects) resources… from the district, village heads have to be pro-active and have good networks, visiting sectoral offices and the Parliament and actively seeking support for projects. Village heads with limited networks have to rely on the formal process of annual development planning (Musrenbang, Musyawarah Perencanaan Pembangunan) to obtain projects, a process which some village heads see as an unproductive formality. This benefits village heads who can exploit the additional direct, and sometimes informal, access provided by decentralization. …but without control Strengthening village heads does not, however, translate directly to strengthening the village mechanisms, villagers community, especially when control mechanisms are lacking to pressure village heads to are unable to pressure work for the community’s interests. These can be seen in villages with strong village heads village heads to work but low in capacity. Communities in these villages have not been able to capitalize on for the community’s changes in the political environment and demand that village heads work for the interests community’s interests. These villages mainly rely on elections to oust unresponsive leaders at the end of their terms. Higher capacity villages, however, are able to make village heads use their stronger position to solve community problems and to hold village heads accountable through mechanisms such as customary laws and traditions (adat) or the BPD that has retained its original role as found in LLI2. The weakening of the The BPD was first mandated in Law 22 of 1999 on Regional Government, as a village village council position representative council with elected members to provide checks and balances in village vis-à-vis village heads government. The village head was thus accountable to the BPD and the district head (who has undermined local provided funds for village government). However, this mechanism was later changed by Law capacity… 32 of 2004, and so was the name, although the abbreviation remained the same. The BPD is now Badan Permusyawaratan Desa, or village consultation council and the members are appointed by consensus and essentially have no power over the village head. These changes also reduce villagers’ ability to monitor the village head and to ensure that village government is working for the broader collective interest, rather than for exclusive individual or elite benefits. The BPD as conceived in 1999 proved to be an effective accountability mechanism in the subset of villages where the council had time to operate before it was weakened by the 2004 legislation. A small number of villages in Central Java for example, have retained the BPD’s December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 41 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly original role while a few villages in Jambi maintained their adat control mechanisms. In these communities, the BPD and adat institutions have enhanced local capacity by channeling villagers’ needs to officials and ensuring that village government is working to address identified community priorities. …with district Despite the lack of checks and balances mechanisms in villages caused by the weakening of government not the BPD, there has been no offsetting increase in the control or supervision of village heads providing control and by districts to hold village heads accountable. Districts provide little supervision and supervision over village monitoring of whether village heads are performing their duties or whether funds are used heads, potentially effectively. Under these circumstances, the stronger position of village heads could leading to power abuse potentially lead to power abuse and corruption. In one of the villages in the LLI3 study, for and corruption example, the village head built a new, expensive village hall, the idea of which was conceived in his first term but was blocked by the BPD in 2001. To finance the hall he used the village development budget, reportedly coerced villagers into giving financial contributions, and reportedly even denied poor households their subsidized rice to help pay for construction. CDD projects work The LLI3 study also sheds light on the influence of CDD programs on local capacity. better in higher Participatory projects could potentially be one means to improve local capacity by providing capacity villages rather space for collective decision-making to solve local problems and by increasing than improving accountability. However, while LLI3 villagers report higher satisfaction, more transparency, governance in lower and better maintenance for PNPM relative to other non-CDD projects, levels of capacity villages participation in village development planning have not increased overall. In particular, in villages with lower capacity, CDD projects have not facilitated improvement in participatory decision-making and governance. High-capacity villages, on the other hand, are better able to take advantage of the open planning and decision-making in these projects to solve some of their collective problems. d. …and the importance of enhanced checks and balances at the village level Stronger checks and Overall, the LLI3 study suggests that local capacity in the sampled villages in Indonesia has balances mechanisms been largely maintained, with high capacity villages being able to capitalize on the at the village level and opportunities brought forth by changes in national policies. Some low capacity villages have a better strategy in been able to improve their capacity organically by addressing resource constraints and using CDD projects is existing control mechanisms to hold village government accountable. These villages have needed to help support also benefited from democratization, which allows villagers to elect reformist, pro- local capacity community village heads that work for villagers’ interests, and from decentralization, which gives reformist village heads direct access to the district to obtain the support needed to solve identified problems. However, some villages have experienced capacity declines, being unable to address persistent problems related to deteriorating natural resources and to hold village government accountable. In a number of cases, this decline in local capacity can be ascribed to losing the ability to elect a village head because of a change of status from village to ward. These findings strongly point to the need to strengthen checks and balances mechanisms at the village level to help villagers hold village government accountable. Thus, while CDD projects have assisted high and medium capacity villages in solving some of their collective problems, more needs to be done to allow lower capacity villages to benefit from the process as well. December 20 13 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DU NIA 42 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure 1: Quarterly and annual GDP growth Appendix Figure 2: GDP expenditure contributions (real GDP growth, percent) (contribution to QoQ seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth, percent) Private cons. Gov cons. 4 8 Investment Net Exports Year-on-year (RHS) 4 3 6 QoQ seas. 2 2 adjust (LHS) Average (LHS)* 4 0 1 2 -2 0 0 -4 Sep-06 Jun-08 Mar-10 Dec-11 Sep-13 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Note: *Average QoQ growth between Q3 2003 – Q3 2013 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank seasonal adjustment Appendix Figure 3: Contributions to GDP production Appendix Figure 4: Motor cycle and vehicle sales (contribution to QoQ seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth, percent) (monthly sales, 000 unit) Agriculture Mining and Const Manufacture Comm and Trans. 900 130 Trade, Hotel, & Rest. Other services Overall GDP Motor vehicles (RHS) 2.0 110 700 90 1.0 70 500 0.0 50 Motor cycles (LHS) -1.0 300 30 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC Appendix Figure 5: Consumer indicators Appendix Figure 6: Industrial production indicators (index) (3 month average, year-on-year growth, percent) 160 20 60 BI Retail sales index BI Consumer 140 Survey Index 15 Cement sales (RHS) 45 120 10 30 100 5 15 80 0 0 Manufacturing production index (LHS) 60 -5 -15 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Source: BI Source: CEIC D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 43 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 7: Real trade flows Appendix Figure 8: Balance of payments (quarter-on-quarter real growth, percent) (USD billion) 15 Capital and financial Current account Errors and omissions Overall BoP inflows 15 10 Exports 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Imports -15 -10 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: BPS Source: BI Appendix Figure 9: Exports of goods Appendix Figure 10: Imports of goods (USD billion) (USD billion) 20 20 Total Exports Total Imports 16 16 12 12 Intermediate 8 Manufacturing 8 Agriculture & forestry Capital Oil & gas 4 4 Consumer Oil & gas Mining & 0 minerals 0 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Source: BPS Source: BPS Appendix Figure 11: Reserve and capital inflows Appendix Figure 12: Inflation and monetary policy (USD billion) (month-on-month and year-on-year growth, percent) 3.5 12 150 5.0 Headline inflation, YoY (RHS) International Reserves (LHS) BI policy rate (RHS) 125 2.5 2.5 8 Core inflation, YoY (RHS) 100 0.0 1.5 4 75 -2.5 Headline inflation MoM (LHS) Non-resident portfolio inflows, (RHS): Equities 0.5 0 50 -5.0 SUN SBI 25 -7.5 -0.5 -4 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Source: BI; CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations December 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 44 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI Appendix Figure 14: Inflation across countries (percentage point contributions to monthly growth) (year-on-year, October 2013) Core Administered Volatile Headline Korea 3.6 USA 3.0 Japan 2.4 Thailand* Singapore 1.8 Malaysia 1.2 Philippines 0.6 China* Indonesia* 0.0 India -0.6 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations *November inflation figure otherwise October Source: National statistical agencies via CEIC; BPS Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice prices Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate (percent LHS, wholesale price, in IDR per kg RHS) (August unemployment data, percent) 100 10,000 25 25 Percentage spread (LHS) 20 20 50 7,000 Poverty rate 15 15 10 10 0 4,000 Unemployment rate Domestic rice, IR-III 5 5 Vietnamese rice 15% broken (RHS) (RHS) -50 1,000 0 0 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: PIBC; FAO; World Bank Source: BPS Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices Appendix Figure 18: Dollar index and Rupiah exchange rate (daily index September 2009=100) (daily index, LHS and IDR/USD, RHS) 250 120 8,500 SET IDR/USD 200 110 (RHS) 9,500 JCI 150 100 IDR Appreciation 10,500 SGX Dollar Index 100 BSE 90 (LHS) 11,500 Shanghai 50 80 12,500 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations December 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 45 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 19: 5-year domestic govt. bond yields Appendix Figure 20: Sovereign USD Bond spreads (daily, percent) (daily, basis points) 10 475 60 Indonesia spreads less overall EMBIG Index spreads (RHS) 8 400 0 Indonesia 6 325 -60 4 Philippines Thailand 250 -120 Malaysia 2 175 -180 United States Indonesia EMBIG bond spreads (LHS) 0 100 -240 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: JP Morgan; World Bank staff calculations Appendix Figure 21: International commercial bank lending Appendix Figure 22: Banking sector indicators (monthly, index January 2009=100) (monthly, percent) 235 100 10 Loan Deposit 215 Indonesia Ratio (LHS) India 80 8 195 Singapor 175 60 6 Malaysia Non-Performing Return on Assets Loans (RHS) Ratio (RHS) 155 40 4 135 Thailand United States 20 2 115 Capital Adequacy Ratio 95 (LHS) 0 0 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI Appendix Figure 23: Government debt Appendix Figure 24: External debt (percent of GDP; USD billion) (percent of GDP; USD billion) 60 300 60 300 Government debt ratio to GDP External debt ratio to GDP (LHS) (LHS) 40 200 40 200 20 100 20 100 0 0 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 External debt, RHS September Private external debt, RHS September Domestic debt, RHS Public external debt, RHS Source: MoF; BI; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations D e c e m b e r 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 46 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Table 1: Budget outcomes and projections (IDR trillion) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revised Outcome Outcome Outcome Outcome Budget budget A. State revenue and grants 849 995 1,211 1,338 1,502 1,667 1. Tax revenue 620 723 874 981 1,148 1,280 2. Non-tax revenue 227 269 331 352 349 385 B. Expenditure 937 1,042 1,295 1,491 1,726 1,842 1. Central government 629 697 884 1,011 1,197 1,250 2. Transfers to the regions 309 345 411 481 529 593 C. Primary balance 5 42 9 -53 -112 -54 D. SURPLUS / DEFICIT -89 -47 -84 -153 -224 -175 (percent of GDP) -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.4 -1.7 Source: MoF Appendix Table 2: Balance of Payments (USD billion) 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Balance of Payments 30.3 11.9 0.2 -3.7 -1.0 -2.8 0.8 3.2 -6.6 -2.5 -2.6 Percent of GDP 4.3 1.4 0.0 -1.7 -0.5 -1.3 0.4 1.5 -3.0 -1.1 -1.2 Current Account 5.1 1.7 -24.4 -2.3 -3.2 -8.1 -5.3 -7.8 -5.9 -10.0 -8.4 Percent of GDP 0.7 0.2 -2.8 -1.1 -1.5 -3.7 -2.4 -3.6 -2.7 -4.4 -3.9 Trade Balance 21.3 24.2 -1.7 3.5 1.8 -2.0 0.8 -2.4 -0.8 -3.8 -2.6 Net Income & Current Transfers -16.2 -22.5 -22.7 -5.8 -5.0 -6.2 -6.1 -5.4 -5.0 -6.1 -5.8 Capital & Financial Accounts 26.6 13.6 25.2 0.2 2.1 5.1 5.9 12.1 -0.3 8.4 4.9 Percent of GDP 3.8 1.6 2.9 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.6 5.5 -0.1 3.7 2.3 Direct Investment 11.1 11.5 14.0 3.1 1.6 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.1 Portfolio Investment 13.2 3.8 9.2 0.2 2.6 3.9 2.5 0.2 2.8 3.4 1.9 Other Investment 2.3 -1.8 1.9 -3.2 -2.1 -2.5 -1.2 7.7 -6.9 1.2 -2.1 Errors & Omissions -1.5 -3.4 -0.5 -1.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 -1.1 -0.4 -1.0 0.9 Foreign Reserves* 96.2 110.1 112.8 110.1 110.5 106.5 110.2 112.8 104.8 98.1 95.7 Note: * Reserves at end-period Source: BI; BPS December 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 47 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Table 3: Indonesia’s historical macro-economic indicators at a glance 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 National Accounts (% change) Real GDP 9.0 8.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 Real investment 25.3 22.6 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.8 9.8 Real consumption 23.2 21.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 Private 23.9 22.7 3.7 0.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 Government 18.8 14.7 14.2 6.6 0.3 3.2 1.2 Real exports, GNFS 22.5 18.0 30.6 16.6 15.3 13.6 2.0 Real imports, GNFS 30.2 29.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 13.3 6.6 Investment (% GDP) 28 28 20 24 32 32 33 Nominal GDP (USD billion) 114 202 165 286 709 846 878 GDP per capita (USD) 636 1035 804 1,300 2,984 3,498 3,563 2 Central Government budget (% GDP) Revenue and grant 18.8 15.2 20.8 17.8 15.5 16.3 16.2 Non-tax revenue 1.0 4.8 9.0 5.3 4.2 4.5 4.3 Tax revenue 17.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 11.3 11.8 11.9 Expenditure 11.8 13.9 22.4 18.4 16.2 17.4 18.1 Consumption .. 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 Capital .. 4.6 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 Interest .. 1.4 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Subsidies .. .. 6.3 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 Budget balance 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 Government debt 41.9 32.3 97.9 47.6 26.0 24.3 23.9 o/w external government debt 41.9 32.3 51.4 22.3 9.5 8.3 7.4 Total external debt (including private sector) 61.0 61.5 87.1 47.7 28.2 27.5 29.6 3 Balance of Payments (% GDP) Overall balance of payments .. .. .. 0.2 4.3 1.4 0.0 Current account balance -2.6 3.2 4.8 0.1 0.7 0.2 -2.8 Exports GNFS 25.6 26.2 42.8 35.0 24.7 26.2 24.1 Imports GNFS 24.0 26.9 33.9 32.0 21.6 23.3 24.3 Trade balance 1.6 -0.8 8.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 -0.2 Financial account balance .. .. .. 0.0 3.7 1.6 2.9 Net direct investment 1.0 2.2 -2.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 Gross official reserves (USD billion) 8.7 14.9 29.4 34.7 96.2 110.1 112.8 3 Monetary (% change) 1 GDP deflator 7.7 9.9 20.4 14.3 8.3 8.1 4.5 Bank Indonesia interest key rate (%) .. .. .. 9.1 6.5 6.6 5.8 Domestic credit .. .. .. 28.7 17.5 24.4 24.2 4 Nominal exchange rate (average, IDR/USD) 1,843 2,249 8,422 9,705 9,090 8,770 9,387 1 Prices (% change) Consumer price Index (eop) 9.9 9.0 9.4 17.1 7.0 3.8 4.3 Consumer price Index (average) 7.7 9.4 3.7 10.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 Poverty basket inflation (average) .. .. .. 10.8 8.7 8.2 6.5 5 Indonesia crude oil price (USD per barrel) .. 17 28 53 79 112 113 Source: 1 BPS and World Bank staff calculation; 2 MoF and World Bank staff calculation (for 1995 is FY 1995/1996, for 2000 covers 9 months); 3 Bank Indonesia; 4 IMF; 5 CEIC December 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 48 Slower growth; high risks Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Table 4: Indonesia’s development indicators at a glance 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Demographics Population (million) 184 199 213 227 241 244 247 Population growth rate (%) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 31 36 42 46 50 51 51 Dependency ratio (% of working-age population) 67 61 55 54 53 53 52 2 Labor Force Labor force, total (million) 75 84 98 106 117 117 118 Male 46 54 60 68 72 72 73 Female 29 31 38 38 45 45 45 Agriculture share of employment (%) 55 43 45 44 38 36 35 Industry share of employment (%) 14 19 17 19 19 21 22 Services share of employment (%) 31 38 37 37 42 44 43 Unemployment, total (% of labor force) 2.5 7.0 8.1 11.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 3 Poverty and Income Distribution Median household consumption (IDR 000) .. .. 104 211 374 421 446 National poverty line (IDR 000) .. .. 73 129 212 234 249 Population below national poverty line (million) .. .. 38 35 31 30 29 Poverty (% of population below national poverty line) .. .. 19 16 13 12 12 Urban (% of population below urban poverty line) .. .. 14.6 11.7 9.9 9.2 8.8 Rural (% of population below rural poverty line) .. .. 22.4 20.0 16.6 15.7 15.1 Male-headed households .. .. 15.5 13.3 11.0 10.2 9.5 Female-headed households .. .. 12.6 12.8 9.5 9.7 8.8 Gini index .. .. 0.30 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.41 Percentage share of consumption: lowest 20% .. .. 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 Percentage share of consumption: highest 20% .. .. 38.6 41.4 43.5 46.5 46.7 4 Public expenditure on social security & welfare (% of GDP) .. .. .. 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 1 Health and Nutrition Physicians (per 1,000 people) 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.29 .. 0.20 Child malnutrition weight for age (% of children under 5) .. 27.4 24.8 24.4 18.6 .. .. Under five mortality rate (per 1000 children under 5 year) 98 67 52 42 34 32 31.0 Neonatal mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 27 26 22 19 16 15.5 15.0 Infant mortality (per 1000 live births) 67 51 41 34 28 26.7 25.8 Maternal mortality ratio (estimate, per 100,000 live births) 600 420 340 270 220 .. .. Skilled birth attendance (% of total births) 36 .. 66 .. 82 .. .. Measles vaccination (% of children under 1 year) .. 63 74 .. 76 .. .. Total health expenditure (% of GDP) .. 1.8 77.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 .. Public health expenditure (% of GDP) .. 0.7 89.0 89.0 1.0 0.9 .. 3 Education Primary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 92 92 92 93 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 48 48 49 49 Secondary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 52 61 60 60 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 50 50 50 49 Tertiary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 9 16 14 15 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 55 53 50 54 Adult literacy rate (%) .. .. .. 91 91 91 92 4 Public spending on education (% of GDP) .. .. .. 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 4 Public spending on education (% of spending) .. .. .. 14.5 19.7 19.8 18.9 1 Water and Sanitation Access to an improved water source (% of population) 70 74 78 81 84 84 .. Urban (% of urban population) 91 91 91 92 93 93 .. Rural (% of rural population) 61 65 68 71 75 76 .. Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 32 38 44 53 58 59 .. Urban (% of urban population) 56 60 64 70 73 73 .. Rural (% of rural population) 21 26 30 38 43 44 .. 1 Others Disaster risk reduction progress score (1-5 scale; 5=best) .. .. .. .. .. 3.3 .. 5 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (%) .. .. 8 11 18 18.2 18.6 Source: 1 World Development Indicators; 2 BPS (Sakernas); 3 BPS (Susenas) and World Bank; 4 MoF and World Bank staff calculation, only includes spending on Raskin, Jamkesmas, BLT, BSM, PKH and actuals (except 2012 from revised budget); 5 Inter-Parliamentary Union December 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 49 March 2014 Investment in ux INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Investment in flux March 2014 Preface The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia’s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia’s evolving economy. The IEQ is a product of the World Bank’s Jakarta office. The report is compiled by the Macro and Fiscal Policy Cluster, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network, under the guidance of Jim Brumby, Sector Manager and Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist and Economic Advisor, and Ashley Taylor, Senior Economist. Led by Alex Sienaert and with responsibility for Part A, editing and production, the core project team comprises Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Masyita Crystallin, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Elitza Mileva (Part A lead), Michele Savini Zangrandi and Violeta Vulovic. Administrative support is provided by Titi Ananto and Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Dissemination is organized by Nur Raihan, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan and Nugroho Sunjoyo, under the guidance of Dini Sari Djalal. This edition of the IEQ also includes contributions from Yue Man Lee and Arvind Nair (Section B.1, mineral exports policy), Suryani Amin, Abigail Baca, Iwan Gunawan, Jossie McVitty and Saut Sagala (Bandung Institute of Technology)(Section B.2, urban disaster risk preparedness). Key input was received from The Fei Ming, Neni Lestari, Djauhari Sitorus and Carlos Pinerua. The report also benefited from discussions with, and in-depth comments from, Mark Ahern, Bill Wallace (Australia Indonesia Partnership for Economic Governance) and Roland Rajah (Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade). Peter Milne edited much of the report. This report is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, supported by funding from the Australian Government under the Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA) program. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent, or the Australian Government. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The photograph on the cover and executive summary is copyright of PT Adaro Energy Tbk, and the other chapter photographs are copyright of the World Bank. All rights reserved. For more World Bank analysis of Indonesia’s economy: For information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia, please visit www.worldbank.org/id. In order to be included on an email distribution list for this Quarterly series and related publications, please contact madriani@worldbank.org. For questions and comments relating to this publication, please contact asienaert@worldbank.org. Table of contents PREFACE .................................................................................................................................3  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: INVESTMENT IN FLUX .......................................................... I  A. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL UPDATE ............................................................................... 1  1.  A shifting global economy brings new challenges ....................................................................................... 1  2.  Fixed investment has led the economic adjustment .................................................................................... 2  3.  Core inflation has been gradually rising ....................................................................................................... 5  4.  Strong balance of payments performance in Q4, but risks lie ahead........................................................... 7  5.  Following the tightening of monetary policy, credit growth is cooling......................................................11  6.  Much less fiscal room to maneuver in 2014 ................................................................................................ 13  7.  As external risks abate, longer-term reforms regain priority...................................................................... 17  B.SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA’S ECONOMY ......................... 19  1.  A closer look at Indonesia’s unprocessed mineral export ban ................................................................... 19  a.  Background and current status of regulations ....................................................................................................... 20  b.  Examining the rationale and assumptions behind the unprocessed mineral export ban...................................... 21  c.  Estimating the short- to medium-term fiscal and trade impacts .......................................................................... 22  d.  Policy implications and the way forward ............................................................................................................... 26  2.  Applying a rapid risk diagnostic approach for building disaster and climate resilience in Indonesia’s growing cities .............................................................................................................................................. 29  a.  Increasing urban risks in East Asia-Pacific and Indonesian cities ....................................................................... 29  b.  A framework for building urban resilience ............................................................................................................ 30  c.  A rapid risk diagnostic approach is useful to identify practical options for investing in disaster and climate resilience in Indonesian cities ................................................................................................................................. 31  d.  Building resilience with risk sensitive land-use zoning and infrastructure planning ........................................... 33  e.  Building resilience with urban infrastructure upgrading ...................................................................................... 34  f.  Building resilience with ecosystem restoration and management ........................................................................ 34  g.  Now is the time for Indonesia to prioritize urban disaster and climate risk resilience ........................................ 34  C. INDONESIA 2015 AND BEYOND: A SELECTIVE LOOK ........................................... 35  1.  Indonesia: Avoiding the trap....................................................................................................................... 35  a.  The next decade brings risks and opportunities.................................................................................................... 35  b.  What strategy is needed for strong and inclusive growth in Indonesia? ............................................................... 38  c.  Policy priorities to support productivity growth: first, infrastructure .................................................................... 39  d.  Policy priorities to support productivity growth: second, skills ............................................................................. 41  e.  Policy priorities to support productivity growth: third, markets ........................................................................... 42  f.  What policy priorities to ensure that prosperity is shared more widely? ............................................................... 44  g.  The stakes are high: the payoffs to reform and the costs of no reform ................................................................. 45  APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ................ 47  LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Recent current account, commodity price, and exchange rate developments offer some relief ............................................................................................................................. II  Figure 2: Global economic activity is broadly on track to keep strengthening, led by high income economies… ................................................................................................................ 2   Figure 3: …and Indonesia’s terms of trade have stabilized for now, albeit at levels well below their previous peaks ..................................................................................................... 2  Figure 4: Net exports drove real GDP growth in 2013 Q4................................................................. 3  Figure 5: Domestic demand adjustment remained concentrated in fixed investment .................... 3  Figure 6: The GDP growth contribution of construction and mining rose at the expense of trade, hotel and restaurant services ....................................................................................... 4  Figure 7: The latest indicators provide mixed signals regarding 2014 Q1 domestic demand ......... 4  Figure 8: Inflationary pressures have risen in recent months, a lagged response to the weaker Rupiah and seasonal factors ........................................................................................ 6  Figure 9: The gap between Indonesian and international rice prices has widened......................... 6  Figure 10: The balance of payments turned positive in Q4… .......................................................... 7  Figure 11: …after a marked improvement in the goods trade balance caused the overall current account deficit to contract ........................................................................................... 7  Figure 12: Ores, slag and ash (O-S-A) contributed materially to export growth in Q4 and to a fall in exports in Jan 2014 ................................................................................................... 7  Figure 13: Imports weakened in Q4, with capital goods imports subdued and intermediate goods dropping ....................................................................................................................... 8  Figure 14: Net inflows to domestic bonds since September have supported portfolio investment . 8  Figure 15: Weakening exports reduced import growth in 2012, and exports contributed to most import growth in 2013 ................................................................................................ 10  Figure 16: After recent rate hikes, the BI policy rate is close to a Taylor-rule estimate based on core inflation ............................................................................................................... 11  Figure 17: Commercial bank lending rates have risen by less than the BI policy rate................... 12  Figure 18: Smaller banks are more vulnerable to the slowdown in deposit growth ....................... 12  Figure 19: Nominal revenue growth has decelerated faster than expenditure growth over the last three years … ............................................................................................................. 14  Figure 20: …on the back of a broad-based fall in collection across revenue sources .................... 14  Figure 21: Fuel subsidies continue to expose the budget to Rupiah-denominated market fuel price pressures ........................................................................................................... 15  Figure 22: Gross external financing needs and liquidity risks remain substantial ........................ 17  Figure 23: Indonesia’s mineral exports increased significantly in the 2000s ................................. 20  Figure 24: Close to 40 percent of mineral exports are processed .................................................... 20  Figure 25: Estimates show a significant negative impact on the trade balance in 2014-15 under all scenarios… ................................................................................................................. 25   Figure 26:...as well as a negative impact on collection of fiscal revenues, which increases over time............................................................................................................................. 25  Figure 27: The negative trade impact is driven by a decline in exports, particularly in 2014… .... 25  Figure 28: ...and a significant increase in imports through to 2017 from capital intensive smelter investments ................................................................................................................ 25  Figure 29: Copper is mined primarily in Chile, while refining and consumption is concentrated in China and India ......................................................................................................... 28  Figure 30: Status of city spatial plans (February 2014) .................................................................... 30  Figure 31: The six pilot cities vary in size but have growing populations ...................................... 32  Figure 32: Example of a simple city risk profile in Balikpapan ...................................................... 33  Figure 33: Demography provides a boost: Indonesia’s dependency ratio will likely fall until 2025- 30… ............................................................................................................................ 36  Figure 34: …but the boost from commodities, an important growth engine of nominal incomes, is now fading… .......................................................................................................... 36  Figure 35: Poorer households experienced lower than average growth in their real consumption over 2003-10 ................................................................................................................ 38  Figure 36: More and higher quality spending is needed to close the infrastructure gap… ........... 42  Figure 37: Indonesia faces the challenge of improving its labor force skills mix .......................... 42  Figure 38: Income per capita reached by when demographic dividend ended, versus Indonesia (2030) .......................................................................................................................... 46  LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES Appendix Figure 1: Quarterly and annual GDP growth.................................................................. 47  Appendix Figure 2: Contributions to GDP expenditures ............................................................... 47  Appendix Figure 3: Contributions to GDP production................................................................... 47  Appendix Figure 4: Motor cycle and motor vehicle sales ............................................................... 47  Appendix Figure 5: Consumer indicators........................................................................................ 47  Appendix Figure 6: Industrial production indicators ..................................................................... 47  Appendix Figure 7: Trade volumes ................................................................................................. 48  Appendix Figure 8: Balance of payments........................................................................................ 48  Appendix Figure 9: Exports of goods .............................................................................................. 48  Appendix Figure 10: Imports of goods ............................................................................................ 48  Appendix Figure 11: Reserves and capital inflows .......................................................................... 48  Appendix Figure 12: Inflation and monetary policy........................................................................ 48  Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI ........................................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 14: Inflation comparison across countries .......................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice prices.......................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate .................................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices.................................................................................. 49  Appendix Figure 18: Selected currencies against USD ................................................................... 49  Appendix Figure 19: 5-year local currency govt. bond yields ......................................................... 50  Appendix Figure 20: Sovereign USD bond EMBIG spread ........................................................... 50  Appendix Figure 21: Commercial bank credit growth .................................................................... 50  Appendix Figure 22: Banking sector indicators .............................................................................. 50  Appendix Figure 23: Government debt ........................................................................................... 50  Appendix Figure 24: External debt.................................................................................................. 50  LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Under the baseline scenario, Indonesia’s growth is projected at 5.3 percent in 2014 ..... III  Table 2: In the base case, GDP is expected to grow at 5.3 percent in 2014 and 5.6 percent in 2015 5  Table 3: In the base case, a current account deficit of 2.9 percent of GDP is projected.................. 9  Table 4: Investment and exports drive the demand for real imports.............................................. 10  Table 5: The World Bank’s fiscal deficit projection for 2014 has been revised up on weaker revenues and higher subsidy spending ..................................................................... 14  Table 6: The Government has adopted less optimistic macroeconomic assumptions for 2014 .... 15  Table 7: Further fuel subsidy reform is needed to ease fiscal pressures ........................................ 16  Table 8: Current regulations impose a partial ban with an increasing export tax on remaining unprocessed mineral exports ..................................................................................... 21  Table 9: Both export and import channels are modeled as well as export duties/taxes, royalties and income taxes ....................................................................................................... 23  Table 10: No new copper smelters are assumed to come on stream through to end 2017 ............. 24  Table 11: Status of city regional spatial planning (RTRW) as of February 2014 ............................ 31  Table 12: Status of regional spatial plans (RTRWs) of cities under study ..................................... 32  Table 13: Labor productivity differences across sectors remain significant ................................... 39  LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES Appendix Table 1: Budget outcomes and projections .................................................................... 51  Appendix Table 2: Balance of payments ......................................................................................... 51  Appendix Table 3: Indonesia’s historical macroeconomic indicators at a glance ......................... 52  Appendix Table 4: Indonesia’s development indicators at a glance .............................................. 53  LIST OF BOXES Box 1: The determinants of Indonesia’s import demand: investment and exports are important 10  Box 2: A Taylor Rule perspective on Indonesia’s monetary policy stance ..................................... 11  Box 3: Following last year’s subsidized fuel price increase, more fuel subsidy reform is needed. 16  Box 4: International experience in promoting downstream mineral processing ........................... 28  Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Executive summary: Investment in flux As Indonesia’s Indonesia’s economy continues to adjust to weaker terms of trade and tighter external economic adjustment financing conditions, with the composition of growth tilting more towards net exports, and to a changing global economic growth slowing moderately. While this shift is positive for macroeconomic environment stability, it has to date been based primarily on tighter monetary policy and the depreciation continues, further of the Rupiah in 2013, the effects of which are continuing to play out. To further reduce progress is needed on Indonesia’s vulnerability to external shocks, to minimize the risks of a more marked cyclical long-standing policy slowdown in growth, and to convert the near-term macro adjustment into strong, sustained priorities… growth over the longer term, further progress on long-standing policy priorities is warranted. …including Progress in three key areas can support both near-term macro stability and Indonesia’s long- improvements in the term economic prospects. First, there is a need to support domestic and foreign investor quality of the confidence. Recent policy and regulatory developments, including the partial ban on mineral investment and trade exports, have increased uncertainty, may weigh on investment across the economy, and climate, fiscal reforms, compound the usual difficulty of predicting policy ahead of elections. Given rising fiscal and continuing to pressures from slower revenue growth and higher fuel subsidy costs, the second priority is to make progress on broaden the revenue base and improve the quality of spending, notably by reducing energy loosening the subsidy expenditure. These measures would also increase available fiscal space for more structural impediments equitable, pro-growth spending. Third, credible progress is needed on addressing structural to growth impediments to stronger and more inclusive growth, namely infrastructure and worker skills gaps, and factor and product market constraints. The policy environment is naturally constrained ahead of legislative elections in April and the presidential election in July. However, in light of ongoing economic risks and Indonesia’s ambitious development agenda, laying the groundwork for future reforms, minimizing policy uncertainty, and making continued reform progress in some areas, should remain a priority. Global economic The global economy continues to strengthen gradually, led by the ongoing recovery in high- conditions are also income economies, notably the US and the Euro Area. This is broadly positive for emerging shifting, bringing market economies (EMEs) including Indonesia, since it means a general strengthening in challenges for trade flows. However, the price trajectories of many commodities, which together account Indonesia for about two-thirds of Indonesia’s goods exports, remain subdued, and downward price M a r ch 2 014 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA I Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly pressures may continue due to supply-side factors, and China’s continued rebalancing away from credit-fueled investment. In addition, the pricing-in of a gradual withdrawal of extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy in the US is placing upward pressure on global interest rates. Portfolio investment inflows to EMEs have slumped as investors assess adjustment risks and longer-term relative growth prospects, with markets appearing increasingly to differentiate amongst countries on the basis of domestic vulnerabilities. Indonesia’s economic Indonesia’s economy continued to rebalance in the fourth quarter of 2013, adjusting to rebalancing continued weaker terms of trade and external financing constraints through tighter monetary policy and through the end of currency depreciation. Net exports provided a significant boost to growth, due to a 2013, visible in moderation in import volume growth and pick up in exports. Fixed investment maintained moderating fixed its below-average pace of growth, pulling down growth and dampening import demand. investment and rising Private consumption indicators have been more mixed, with some signs that this too is net export volumes… moderating, but election-related spending may well provide a short-term fillip. …and the current The speed and extent of Figure 1: Recent current account, commodity price, and account narrowed, Indonesia’s external balance exchange rate developments offer some relief although in part due to adjustment (Figure 1) has (Current account deficit, exchange rates and commodity prices) temporary factors remained in focus for Current account (four quarter rolling sum) to GDP, LHS policymakers and investors. Real effective exchange rate (RHS) Indonesia’s current account USD per IDR (RHS) Top 6 commodity export prices (RHS) deficit narrowed sharply in 1 Percent 2011=100 110 the fourth quarter of 2013, to USD 4.0 billion (2.0 0 100 percent of GDP), from USD 8.5 billion in the third -1 90 quarter, supporting investor sentiment and the Rupiah, which has climbed 7 percent -2 80 against the US Dollar so far in 2014. The narrowing in -3 70 the current account deficit was driven by a solid rise in -4 60 the goods trade balance, Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 partly, but not only, on Note: “Top 6 commodity prices” is an export-weighted index of USD account of increased mineral coal, gas, palm oil, crude oil, rubber and copper prices exports ahead of the mineral Source: BI; BPS; World Bank staff calculations export ban in January. Import compression continued on the back of subdued capital and intermediate goods imports. However, the basic balance, the sum of the current account balance and net FDI, is projected to stay negative in the near term, implying that Indonesia will continue to rely on potentially volatile portfolio and other investment inflows. Gross external financing needs beyond current account financing also remain significant, with short-term external debt standing at USD 56.7 billion as of December, according to Bank Indonesia (BI). Consequently, Indonesia remains susceptible to any renewed tightening in external financing conditions. Credit growth has The adjustment of Indonesia’s external balances has been the explicit focus of BI since mid- weakened, and 2013. The tighter monetary policy stance in the second half of last year, as well as the more seasonal factors and subdued investment outlook, has contributed to a marked slowdown in credit growth. exchange rate pass- Weaker deposit growth and limited loan-to-deposit ratio headroom, especially for some through are affecting smaller banks, indicate that this is likely to persist for some time. In terms of the near-term inflation outlook for inflation, the recent appreciation of the Rupiah, and the lags in the pass-through effect to the economy of earlier interest rate increases, should combine to keep inflationary pressures in check. M a r ch 2 014 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA II Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly While 2013 saw a Indonesia’s fiscal sector faces pressures from weaker nominal revenue growth and higher moderate fiscal deficit energy subsidy costs. The provisional 2013 Budget outturn showed a fiscal deficit of 2.2 of 2.2 percent of GDP, percent of GDP, a better-than-expected result, which was due to expenditure shortfalls nominal revenue rather than higher than projected revenues. Nominal revenue growth, having declined growth has slowed and markedly to 6.8 percent in 2013 from 10.5 percent in 2012 and 21.6 percent in 2011, is fiscal pressures are expected to remain soft in 2014, reflecting the moderation in economic, and import, growth, increasing and the absence of significant new measures to boost revenue collections. On the expenditure side, fuel subsidy spending continues to be poorly targeted, distortionary and to impose high opportunity costs and fiscal risks. For example, higher Rupiah-denominated fuel costs are projected by the World Bank to push up fuel subsidy spending to IDR 267 trillion in 2014 (2.6 percent of GDP) from IDR 210 trillion in 2013 (2.2 percent of GDP), and above the original 2014 Budget allocation of IDR 211 trillion. Reform, such as a move from a discretionary to rule-based fuel price adjustment, is clearly important and should aim to reduce budget uncertainty and subsidy spending and to ensure that the poor and vulnerable are protected from higher prices. The World Bank The baseline World Bank projection for Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2014 remains projects GDP growth unchanged from the December 2013 IEQ, at 5.3 percent year-on-year (yoy) (Table 1). to slow moderately to Private consumption is expected to receive a temporary boost ahead of the April and July 5.3 percent in 2014, and elections, but tighter credit conditions for households may be an offsetting factor for 2014 the current account as a whole. Similarly, investment growth is expected to remain subdued on account of higher deficit to narrow to 2.9 borrowing costs, lower commodity prices, and higher Rupiah-denominated prices of percent of GDP… imported capital goods compared with recent years. Export growth is projected to rise gradually along with external demand, contributing to a modest rise in GDP growth, to 5.6 percent in 2015. By the end of the year, monthly CPI inflation is expected to fall just below the ceiling of BI’s target band of 3.5-5.5 percent yoy and to remain there until end-2015. The current account deficit is projected at 2.9 percent of GDP for 2014. Moving into 2015, the current account balance is expected to improve further but to remain in deficit, with the impact of the mineral export ban likely to delay the return of the trade balance to surplus, and persistent structural deficits in the income and services accounts. Table 1: Under the baseline scenario, Indonesia’s growth is projected at 5.3 percent in 2014 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real GDP* (Annual percent change) 6.2 5.8 5.3 5.6 Consumer price index* (Annual percent change) 4.3 6.9 6.2 5.2 Current account balance (Percent of GDP) -2.8 -3.3 -2.9 -2.1 Budget balance** (Percent of GDP) -1.9 -2.2 -2.6 n.a. Major trading partner GDP (Annual percent change) 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.1 Note: Figures for 2014 and 2015 are World Bank projections. *Annual average. **2013 is unaudited outturn Source: BI; BPS; Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations …but external The baseline projection of only a relatively modest further reduction in growth is predicated financing constraints on the continued availability of external financing to meet significant gross financing needs. may re-intensify… Investor sentiment has recently improved and, year-to-date, the Rupiah has gained approximately 7 percent against the US Dollar, domestic equities are up 9 percent, and domestic currency government bond yields have declined by about 30 basis points. Nevertheless, a resumption of heightened volatility in external financing conditions remains a risk, particularly as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to “taper”. In addition, should the US recovery surprise to the upside, this would be positive for Indonesia’s trade prospects, but would also likely cause markets to re-evaluate the timing of Fed policy rate increases, potentially pressuring investment flows to major EMEs such as Indonesia. There also remains a risk of weaker-than-projected external demand, in particular from the trade impact of China’s rate and composition of growth, which may also affect commodity prices. …and recent policy Notwithstanding the political noise ahead of the April and July elections, it will be especially developments add important, to the extent possible, to make continued progress on improving Indonesia’s uncertainties… economic resilience and sustainable growth rate. However, some recent policy and regulatory developments, including the partial ban on unprocessed mineral exports, new M a r ch 2 014 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA III Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly trade and foreign ownership laws, and the delay in implementing the revised negative investment list, are in fact increasing policy uncertainties. The January ban on unprocessed mineral exports has been a particularly prominent recent policy change, with potentially far- reaching implications for the mining sector and wider economy. The policy process leading to the introduction of the revised regulations in January 2014, and the subsequent legal challenges, has further weakened perceptions of Indonesia’s mining investment climate, which is already rated one of the poorest in the world. …with the mineral Through the imposition of the partial ban and new export tax on unprocessed mineral export ban policy exports, Indonesia is seeking to boost domestic value-addition in the mineral sector. It is expected to have a hoped that this will lead to higher growth, employment and fiscal revenues. Whether these significant, negative outcomes will be achieved depends on the extent to which the policy can stimulate near-term impact on development of new smelting and refining capacity, on the degree to which increased trade and fiscal processing increases value-addition, and on achieving sufficient gains in export and fiscal revenues revenues from processed minerals to offset losses from reduced unprocessed exports and higher import requirements from building and operating smelters. International experience highlights that such policies often fail to achieve their aims. Focusing on the short to medium-term impacts, the World Bank estimates that there will be a negative impact on net trade of USD 12.5 billion and a total loss in fiscal revenues (royalties, export taxes and corporate income tax) of USD 6.5 billion from the current (as written, de jure) policy in 2014- 17, including a USD 5.5 to 6.5 billion drag on the trade balance in 2014 alone. While the quantum remains uncertain, negative impacts of this order from the ban, along with the broader economic issues the policy raises, suggest it is worthwhile to evaluate a wider set of policy options to ensure that Indonesia benefits to the maximum extent possible from its considerable mineral wealth in a socially and environmentally sustainable manner. A forthcoming World While near-term macroeconomic adjustments, and the debate over value-addition in the Bank report, minerals sector, have understandably captured much of the attention in recent policy Indonesia: Avoiding debates, an election year is also an opportune time to re-examine Indonesia’s wider, longer- the Trap, argues that term economic development aspirations. Within the next two decades Indonesia aspires to Indonesia can achieve generate prosperity, avoid a middle-income trap and leave no one behind as it tries to catch its ambitious longer- up with high-income economies. These are ambitious goals. Realizing them requires term development sustained high growth and job creation, as well as reduced inequality. Can Indonesia achieve goals with the right them? This edition of the IEQ provides a summary of the World Bank’s forthcoming report, productivity-focused Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap. This argues that Indonesia has the potential to rise and become growth strategy and by more prosperous and equitable. But the risk of “floating in the middle” is also real. Which implementing high- pathway the economy will take depends on: (i) the adoption of a growth strategy that priority structural unleashes the productivity potential of the economy; and (ii) the consistent implementation reforms… of a few, long-standing, high-priority structural reforms to boost growth and share prosperity more widely. Indonesia is fortunate to have options in financing these reforms without threatening its long-term fiscal outlook. The difficulties lie in getting the reforms implemented in a complex, and decentralized, institutional framework. But Indonesia, given the high stakes, cannot afford to not try hard. …as well as putting in In light of the repeated flooding in urban areas seen again in this year’s wet season, this IEQ place policies to also focuses in on the disaster and climate risks that Indonesia faces as it continues to mitigate disaster and urbanize, and how these risks are likely to grow as a consequence of this urbanization trend. climate change risks Indonesia is leading the world as the most rapidly urbanizing country, surpassing even that are likely to grow China, India and Thailand. However, many urban centers are located in hazardous zones. as Indonesia continues Recent research emphasizes the importance of aligning infrastructure development with to urbanize disaster and climate change impacts to build resilience, particularly in mid-sized cities. In Indonesia, these are the very cities that will be driving economic development in the coming decades. Without strategically planned investments, policy interventions, and stronger institutional capacity, poorly managed urbanization could act as a constraint on sustainable and inclusive growth. Even more worrying, this could also expose Indonesians to undue disaster and climate change-risks, highlighting the need to mitigate such risks through controlled and well-managed spatial planning. M a r ch 2 014 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA IV Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly A. Economic and fiscal update 1. A shifting global economy brings new challenges Shift in global The global economy continues gradually to strengthen, led by the ongoing recovery in high economic conditions income economies, notably the US and the Euro Area. This is broadly positive for emerging brings opportunities market economies (EMEs) including Indonesia, since it means a general strengthening in and challenges for trade flows. However, international developments also pose significant challenges. First , the emerging economies, shifting composition of global growth in favor of high income economies, China’s including Indonesia continued efforts to rebalance its economy away from credit-fueled investment, and supply- side factors, mean that the price trajectories of many commodities, which together account for about two-thirds of Indonesia’s goods exports, remain subdued. Second, the pricing-in of a gradual withdrawal of extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy in the US and other high income economies is placing upward pressure on global interest rates, and portfolio investment inflows to EMEs have slumped as global investors assess adjustment risks and longer-term, relative growth prospects. The global economy While recent global economic performance has been somewhat uneven, the overall pattern remains on track for has been one of increasing growth, and the outlook for most of Indonesia’s major trading stronger growth… partners is positive. GDP decelerated in the US and Japan in the final quarter of 2013, but accelerated slightly in the Euro Area, and across high income economies as a whole, industrial production picked up notably through the end of 2013. Weather disruptions in early 2014 have complicated assessments of the momentum of the US economy, but the most recent payrolls data and leading indicators suggest that its recovery continues, as is also the case in the Euro Area. Looking ahead, the baseline scenario is for the global economy to strengthen over 2014 and 2015, led by the expansion of high income economies (Figure 2). Developing economies are expected to record trend-like growth, notably including solid growth in China of close to the official growth target of 7.5 percent in 2014. Thus, the international economic backdrop should continue to be broadly supportive for the demand for Indonesia’s exports. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 1 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly …and the terms of Indonesia’s terms of trade have stabilized in recent months, consistent with a modest trade have stabilized strengthening in external demand due to a gradual pick-up in global economic activity. As measured by average unit export and import values, the terms of trade troughed in August 2013 and have since picked up somewhat, though remaining approximately 30 percent below the level when export prices peaked three years ago (Figure 3). This stabilization of relative export and import prices has supported the trade balance and is broadly positive for the economy, but there have been no signs of a broad-based lift in commodity prices. Rather, price developments for Indonesia’s key commodity exports remain mixed so far in 2014, with natural gas prices rising 6 percent over the first two months of the year, but coal falling approximately 10 percent, while palm oil and crude oil prices were broadly flat. The price of Indonesia’s single largest mineral export product, copper (about 2.5 percent of total export value), was little-changed through end-February. Figure 2: Global economic activity is broadly on track to Figure 3: …and Indonesia’s terms of trade have stabilized keep strengthening, led by high income economies… for now, albeit at levels well below their previous peaks (OECD composite leading indicators) (index, 2010 average=100, 3-month moving average) 102.0 130 101.5 Imports unit value 120 Japan 101.0 110 100.5 US 100 100.0 Euro Exports unit Area 90 value 99.5 80 99.0 China 98.5 70 Terms of trade 98.0 60 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: OECD Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Emerging market Global benchmark interest rates have fluctuated in a fairly narrow range (e.g. US 10-year economy financial yields between 2.6-3.0 percent), following the start of “tapering” of quantitative easing assets have measures by the US Federal Reserve last December. Against this backdrop, many emerging underperformed market currencies and equity markets have either lost ground or lagged the gains seen in some high income economy markets; for example, the MSCI Standard EM equities index weakened by 5.9 percent in US Dollar terms in 2014 through 13 March, against a flat S&P 500 index (of major US stocks). The underperformance of EME assets likely reflects continued investor concerns over the required economic or policy adjustments and potentially weaker growth prospects in the context of gradually normalizing monetary policy in high income economies, and, ultimately, higher global interest rates. These are very relevant concerns for Indonesia as well, but so far in 2014 Indonesian financial markets have performed relatively strongly. 2. Fixed investment has led the economic adjustment Indonesia’s economic Indonesia’s economy continued to rebalance in the fourth quarter of 2013, adjusting to rebalancing continued weaker terms of trade and external financing constraints through tighter monetary policy and through the end of currency depreciation. Net exports provided a significant boost to real GDP growth, 2013, with fixed reflecting a moderation in import volume growth and acceleration in exports. Fixed capital investment moderating formation maintained its below-average pace of growth, dampening import demand and and net export volumes accounting for a significant part of the growth adjustment. At the same time, consumption rising spending remained resilient. The process of economic adjustment is expected to continue in the short term, causing growth to moderate further over 2014. Over the medium term, growth momentum is projected to pick-up somewhat, but the rate of growth is likely to stay below 6 percent. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 2 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Economic activity GDP growth in Indonesia remained broadly stable at 5.7 percent yoy in the final quarter of maintained a relatively 2013 compared with 5.6 percent yoy in Q3 (Figure 4). In sequential terms, output growth moderate pace of year- picked up to 6.3 percent qoq saar in Q4 from 5.5 percent in the previous quarter. Nominal on-year growth in Q4 GDP accelerated over the same period, to 13.2 percent yoy, as a result of a rise in the GDP 2013 deflator of 7.1 percent yoy. For 2013 as a whole, real GDP growth moderated to 5.8 percent from 6.3 percent in 2012, owing to somewhat weaker domestic demand. Strong net exports Net exports provided the largest contribution, of 3.9 percentage points, to year on year real supported real GDP GDP growth in Q4, the fourth consecutive quarter of positive contribution in 2013 (Figure growth in Q4 2013… 4). Temporarily boosted by large export volumes of mineral ores, real exports of goods and services increased by 7.4 percent yoy in the fourth quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the previous quarter. Annual export growth went up from 2.0 percent in 2012 to 5.3 percent in 2013. By contrast, in Q4 2013 imports declined by 0.6 percent yoy after growing by 5.1 percent in Q3. Partly as a result of the deceleration in fixed investment growth and the Rupiah depreciation, annual import growth dropped from 6.7 percent in 2012 to 1.2 percent last year (see Box 1 for more detailed discussion). Figure 4: Net exports drove real GDP growth in 2013 Q4 Figure 5: Domestic demand adjustment remained (expenditure components’ contribution to real GDP growth yoy, percentage concentrated in fixed investment points) (real growth yoy, percent) 14 14 Private consumption Investment Private cons. Gov cons. 12 Investment Net Exports 12 Discrepancy GDP 10 10 8 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 -2 -4 0 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Note: Lines indicate Q1 2010 – Q4 2013 average Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations … while domestic Domestic demand growth slowed down to 5.1 percent yoy in Q4, from 5.5 percent in Q3. demand grew at a Private consumption lost momentum in the final quarter of 2013, increasing by 3.9 percent more moderate rate qoq saar (versus 7.0 percent in Q3) and by 5.3 percent yoy (versus 5.5 percent in Q3) (Figure 5). Household spending may have been affected by the slowdown in consumer credit growth to 15 percent yoy in December and a Rupiah depreciation of almost 7 percent in Q4. The growth of gross fixed capital formation stood at 4.4 percent yoy in Q4, remaining relatively weak at half of the average growth rate of 8.8 percent observed in 2010-2012. In particular, spending on foreign machinery and equipment declined in the fourth quarter, broadly in line with the relatively weak commodity sector, tighter financing conditions, and higher imported capital goods prices due to the depreciation of the Rupiah. Building investment rose by 6.7 percent yoy in Q4, matching its average post-global financial crisis rate. The mining sector From the production perspective, in 2013 Q4 agricultural and industrial sector growth recorded above- picked up to 3.8 and 5.3 percent yoy, respectively. Within industrial production, mining, average growth, while excluding petroleum and gas, rose by 8.2 percent yoy, the highest growth rate since Q1 2011 services lost and considerably higher than the post- global financial crisis average of 5.7 percent. Thus, momentum the data are consistent with front-loading of mineral ore production ahead of the January 2014 ban, as discussed further in Section 4. Manufacturing and construction growth was 5.3 percent yoy and 6.7 percent yoy, respectively, in Q4, both somewhat higher than in the M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 3 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly preceding quarter. In contrast, the services sector grew at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis (6.5 percent yoy versus a post-crisis average of 8.0 percent). Thus, in terms of contribution to real GDP growth, that of construction and mining increased, while that of services, especially trade, hotel and restaurant sector, declined (Figure 6). Figure 6: The GDP growth contribution of construction and Figure 7: The latest indicators provide mixed signals mining rose at the expense of trade, hotel and restaurant regarding 2014 Q1 domestic demand services (BI retail sales index, vehicle sales and cement volumes, 3mma yoy growth, (contributions to real GDP growth yoy, percent) percent) Agriculture 10 Construction and mining 10 60 Motor vehicles Manufacturing Trade, Hotels and Restaurants 50 8 Other Services 8 Transport and Comms 40 GDP 30 Cement 6 6 20 10 Retail sales 4 4 0 2 2 -10 Motorcycles -20 0 0 -30 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Recent high frequency Several high frequency economic activity indicators, except retail sales, suggest a loss of data are mixed but momentum in domestic demand in the first month of 2014. Motorcycle sales, in particular, consistent with a small declined sharply by 11.3 percent yoy in January (or an increase of only 4.3 percent yoy if election-related smoothed over three months), possibly affected by prolonged flooding in Java (Figure 7). increase in private The HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, at 50.5 consumption in February, remains in marginally expansionary territory. However, BI’s survey measure of retail sales increased significantly to 26.6 and 28.8 percent yoy in December and January, respectively. The high retail sales readings point to a pick-up in private consumption spending in the first quarter of 2014, likely supported by early campaign-related activity. Relatively moderate The baseline World Bank projections for Indonesia’s GDP growth remain unchanged at 5.3 output growth is percent in 2014 (Table 2). Private consumption is expected to receive a temporary boost projected over the ahead of the April and July elections. Nevertheless, tighter credit conditions are likely to medium term affect somewhat household spending in 2014. Similarly, investment growth is expected to remain subdued in the short term on account of higher borrowing costs, lower commodity prices and higher import costs driven by the weaker Rupiah. Export growth is projected to rise gradually as external demand conditions improve (see Section 1). However, the contribution of net exports to growth is expected to decline somewhat over the forecast horizon as import growth recovers in line with the projected increase in domestic demand. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 4 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Table 2: In the base case, GDP is expected to grow at 5.3 percent in 2014 and 5.6 percent in 2015 (percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) Revision to Annual YoY in Fourth Quarter Annual 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2014 1. Main economic indicators Total Consumption expenditure 5.2 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.2 0.0 Private consumption expenditure 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.2 0.0 Government consumption 4.9 4.4 3.7 6.4 4.2 4.9 0.0 Gross fixed capital formation 4.7 4.5 6.6 4.4 5.9 6.8 0.1 Exports of goods and services 5.3 5.3 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.0 -0.1 Imports of goods and services 1.2 3.4 5.4 -0.6 4.4 5.7 0.0 Gross Domestic Product 5.8 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.7 0.0 2. External indicators Balance of payments (USD bn) -7.3 -2.9 1.7 - - - 9.9 Current account balance (USD bn) -28.5 -24.4 -20.2 - - - -1.6 As share of GDP (percent) -3.3 -2.9 -2.1 - - - -0.3 Trade balance (USD bn) -5.3 -2.9 2.7 - - - -0.4 Financial account balance (USD bn) 22.7 21.5 21.9 - - - 11.5 3. Fiscal indicators Central gov. revenue (% of GDP) 15.3 15.5 - - - - -0.2 Central gov. expenditure (% of GDP) 17.5 18.1 - - - - 0.3 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -2.6 - - - - -0.5 Primary balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -1.4 - - - - 0.5 4. Other economic measures Consumer price index 6.9 6.2 5.2 8.1 5.4 5.2 0.1 GDP Deflator 4.3 6.6 5.3 7.1 5.2 5.3 0.2 Nominal GDP 10.4 12.2 11.2 13.2 11.0 11.3 0.2 5. Economic assumptions Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 10563 12000 12000 - - - 200.0 Indonesian crude price (USD/bl) 106 105 102 - - - 2.0 Major trading partner growth 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.7 4.4 0.1 Note: Export and import figures refer to volumes from the national accounts. Exchange rate is an assumption based on recent averages. Revisions are relative to projections in the December 2013 IEQ. Source: MoF; BPS; BI; CEIC; World Bank projections 3. Core inflation has been gradually rising Upward inflationary Having risen sharply after the June 2013 increase in subsidized fuel prices, monthly pressures have mostly consumer price inflation declined substantially in the final months of 2013, but has recently faded, except the pass- increased again on the back of seasonal factors. At the same time, core inflation declined through from Rupiah towards the end of 2013 but has recently pushed higher, partly in delayed response to a depreciation weaker Rupiah. In the short term, the lags in the pass-through effect to the economy of earlier rate increases should keep inflationary pressures in check. Seasonal factors Consumer price pressures subsided in the second half of 2013, after the 33 percent average pushed up headline increase in subsidized fuel prices which took effect on June 22 (Figure 8). Weakening inflation in recent domestic demand contributed to the deceleration in monthly inflation. An additional factor months… was the tighter financing conditions caused by foreign capital outflows in the second half of last year and the increase in the Bank Indonesia’s (BI) policy rate from 5.75 percent in May to 7.50 percent in December. In December 2013 and January 2014, at the height of the rainy season, consumer prices rose again sequentially. In year-on-year terms, CPI inflation stood at 8.2 percent in January 2014 and declined to 7.7 percent in February. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 5 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly …while food price Food price inflation continued to decline to 8.8 percent yoy in February 2014 from a high of inflation continued to 15.1 percent yoy in August last year, during Ramadan. The lower food price pressures ease… observed in recent months were caused by price deflation in some key foods such as red chilies and onions in some cities in Sumatra and the eastern Indonesian regions, which compensated for increases in the prices of foods such as rice, flour and beef. Heavy rains since December and the disruption caused by the eruption of the Mount Kelud volcano in East Java in February do not seem to have had a significant impact on national food price inflation. … but the gap between In contrast, a weaker rice harvest on account of heavy floods in Indonesia has resulted in a domestic and larger gap between domestic and international rice prices. In December 2013, comparable international rice international rice prices (represented by the Vietnam medium quality benchmark) were 41-52 prices has widened percent cheaper than domestic wholesale rice prices, and the gap rose to 70-83 percent in February 2014. Recent developments in the price gap were driven by three factors: falling international rice prices due to over-supply of rice in the international market, increasing domestic rice prices (up by 7.3-10.3 percent yoy), and the depreciation of the Rupiah against the US Dollar. Core inflation has Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, declined in the fourth risen, partly as a result quarter of 2013 but has risen again early this year. In year-on-year terms, core CPI inflation of Rupiah depreciation has increased from 4.0 percent yoy in June 2013 to 5.3 percent yoy in February 2014, its highest monthly reading since June 2009. This was due in part to the pass-through to domestic prices of the weaker Rupiah, which depreciated by 25 percent between May 2013 and January 2014 before appreciating by around 5 percent in February (Figure 8). Figure 8: Inflationary pressures have risen in recent months, Figure 9: The gap between Indonesian and international rice a lagged response to the weaker Rupiah and seasonal factors prices has widened (3-month/3-month change, percent (LHS), Rupiah per US Dollar (RHS)) (price difference, percent; wholesale rice price, IDR per kg) 1.8 13,000 100 Percentage spread (LHS) 10,000 1.6 12,000 Domestic rice, 8,000 1.4 75 IR-II (RHS) 1.2 11,000 6,000 50 1.0 Headline USD/IDR 10,000 4,000 0.8 25 0.6 9,000 2,000 0.4 0 8,000 0 0.2 Core Vietnamese rice 5 percent broken (RHS) 0.0 7,000 -25 -2,000 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: Cipinang Wholesale Rice Principle Market; Food and Agriculture Organization; World Bank staff calculations Headline inflation is Looking forward, year-on-year headline inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter of expected to fall just 2014. Afterwards, inflationary pressures are projected to decline on account of favorable below BI’s target base effects and weaker growth. By the end of 2014, monthly CPI inflation is expected to ceiling by end-2014 fall just below the ceiling of the BI’s current target band of 3.5-5.5 percent yoy and to remain there until end-2015. Core inflation is expected to follow broadly the same trajectory, as the adverse effects of the exchange rate depreciation diminish. The risks to the base case projections are balanced and are related to the likelihood of further Rupiah weakness and future administered price increases, the size of the impact of higher election-related spending, set against weaker domestic demand and credit growth. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 6 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly 4. Strong balance of payments performance in Q4, but risks lie ahead Indonesia’s current Indonesia’s balance of payments turned positive in the last quarter of 2014 after three account balance consecutive quarters of deficit, replenishing reserves (Figure 10). The strong performance improved in Q4 but was driven by a solid outturn in the goods trade balance, partly, but not only, on the back of this was in part due to increased mineral exports ahead of the introduction of the mineral export ban in January. temporary factors Import compression continued, with capital and intermediate goods imports leveling off and consumption goods growing weakly. Government debt issuance and foreign private borrowing, and repatriation of currency and deposits, helped finance the USD 4 billion current account deficit. Despite the improvement in the last quarter of 2013, the basic balance, defined as the sum of the current account balance and net direct investment, is projected to remain negative in the near term, implying that Indonesia’s net external financing will likely continue to rely on potentially volatile portfolio and other investment inflows. Figure 10: The balance of payments turned positive in Q4… Figure 11: …after a marked improvement in the goods trade (account balances, USD billion) balance caused the overall current account deficit to contract (account balances, USD billion) Current account Net direct investment Current transfers 20 Net portfolio Net other capital 20 Income balance Overall balance Basic balance Services trade balance 15 15 Goods trade balance Current account balance 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Note: Basic balance = net FDI + current account balance Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations External developments The goods trade balance Figure 12: Ores, slag and ash (O-S-A) contributed in Q4 were driven by recorded a surplus of close to materially to export growth in Q4 and to a fall in exports in robust export growth, USD 5 billion in Q4 2013, the Jan 2014 only partly explained highest since Q4 2011 (Figure (contribution to export revenue growth yoy, percentage points) by the front-loading of 11). Increased exports 15 O-S-A Coal raw mineral exports accounted for 94 percent of Palm oil the rise in the trade balance. 10 Rubber and products This was partly supported by Oil and gas the one-off event of increased 5 Others mineral ore exports in advance of the enforcement of the 0 mineral export ban in mid- January 2014. Increased -5 exports of ores, slag and ash – an approximation providing an -10 upper bound for exports of raw minerals affected by the ban – contributed 2.7 -15 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 percentage points to the strong 10.2 percent yoy export Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations growth in the month of M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 7 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly December, before contracting in January, contributing to 1 percentage point to the 5.8 percent of the year-on-year fall in exports in the first month of 2014 (Figure 12). The value of ores, slag and ash exports declined from USD 970 million in December 2013 to USD 290 million January 2014. The World Bank estimates export losses associated with the raw mineral export ban, relative to a base line of no ban and no export tax, of USD 5.3-7 billion for the full year. The impact of the mineral export ban is being compounded by delays in issuing export permits for processed minerals. For further discussion of the mineral export ban and its impact, see Section B.1. Subdued capital and Import compression has also been a clear recent feature of trade dynamics, although less so intermediate goods in Q4. For example, while reduced imports accounted for only 6 percent of the positive imports also quarterly swing in the value of the trade balance in Q4 relative to Q3 2014, they accounted contributed to the for 60 percent of the improvement in the trade balance from a year earlier. Imports of improvement in the capital and intermediate goods have been soft, with the former in particular averaging 16 trade balance percent lower than their year-ago levels in the second half of 2013. Consumer goods imports have made virtually zero contribution to total import growth (Figure 13). Falling capital imports are related to the marked slowdown in investment (see also Box 1). Little relief appears in the oil and gas trade balance where, despite decreasing imports and slowly rising exports, the deficit (of USD 1 billion in Q4) remained a sizable drag on the overall goods trade balance. Financial account Capital and financial account inflows increased sharply, from USD 5.6 billion in Q3 2013 to inflows rebounded on USD 9.2 billion in Q4, largely driven by flows in the “other investments” sub-account. Here, significant private repatriation of offshore assets increased to USD 1.4 billion, reversing the outflow of USD borrowing and 2.3 billion in 2013 Q3. Strong drawings of offshore loans by domestic corporates repatriation of offshore contributed to USD 4.1 billion of private sector other investment liability inflows, up from capital an outflow of USD 133 million in Q3. Inbound FDI remained in line with the 3 year average of approximately USD 4 billion per quarter. Pertamina’s acquisition of oil fields in Algeria worth approximately USD 2.5 billion contributed to a reduction in net direct investment, to USD 1.6 billion from USD 5.6 billion in Q3. As a result, the basic balance remained negative despite the large current account deficit contraction. Net portfolio investment remained broadly stable at USD 1.8 billion in Q4, helped by substantial net foreign purchases of domestic government bonds (Figure 14). Conversely, equities saw persistent outflows in the second half of 2013, before turning positive again in January. Figure 13: Imports weakened in Q4, with capital goods Figure 14: Net inflows to domestic bonds since September imports subdued and intermediate goods dropping have supported portfolio investment (value of imports growth yoy , percent) (official reserves and portfolio inflows, USD billion) Intermediate Consumption Non-resident portfolio Capital Oil & Gas inflows, (RHS): Equities SUN SBI 36 Total imports 150 5.0 International reserves (LHS) 125 2.5 24 100 0.0 12 75 -2.5 0 50 -5.0 -12 25 -7.5 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 8 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly The current account Despite the significant Table 3: In the base case, a current account deficit of 2.9 deficit is projected to narrowing of the deficit in percent of GDP is projected remain just above 2 the last quarter of 2014, the (USD billion unless otherwise indicated) percent of GDP in 2014 current account balance is 2013 2014 2015 Overall Balance of and to persist over the projected to remain just Payments -7.3 -2.9 1.7 medium term above 2 percent of GDP in As percent of GDP -0.8 -0.3 0.2 2014 (Table 3). As Current Account -28.5 -24.4 -20.2 mentioned, the introduction As percent of GDP -3.3 -2.9 -2.1 of the raw mineral export Trade -5.3 -2.9 2.7 ban, in combination with Income -27.2 -25.7 -27.0 delays in issuing export Transfers 4.1 4.2 4.2 permits for processed Capital & Financial minerals, is expected to Accounts 22.7 21.5 21.9 weigh heavily on the first As percent of GDP 2.6 2.5 2.3 quarter trade balance in Direct Inv. 14.8 12.0 11.9 particular. Moving into 2015, Portfolio Inv. 9.8 10.8 10.6 a positive trade balance is Other Inv. -1.9 -1.3 -0.7 expected to contribute to a Memo: smaller current account Basic Balance -13.7 -12.4 -8.2 As percent of GDP -1.6 -1.5 -0.9 deficit in 2015, but sizable Note: Basic balance = current account balance + net FDI structural deficits on the Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations income and services sub- accounts will persist. These projections are contingent on external financing conditions remaining sufficiently supportive and are subject to a number of risks, as discussed in Section 7. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 9 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 1: The determinants of Indonesia’s import demand: investment and exports are important Import volume growth in Indonesia declined significantly in 2013. Estimates from an error correction model (ECM) suggest that a significant part of the decrease in import demand can be explained by the considerable slowdown in fixed investment (which is consistent with the observed decline in capital goods imports) and the increase in the price of imported goods relative to domestic goods. Historically, household consumption has not been a significant determinant of import growth. As is standard practice in the literature, an ECM model can be used to study both the short- and long-term effect on real import demand of three demand components from the national accounts and relative prices, the latter defined as the ratio of the import deflator to the consumer price index (CPI). All variables are transformed into logarithms and the sample period is Q1 1993 – Q4 2013. The results indicate that private consumption is not a statistically significant determinant of import growth (Table 4). In the short run, a one percent increase in investment adds around 0.5 percentage points to import demand. Similarly, a one percent rise in exports is associated with 0.6 percentage points import growth as imported goods are used in the production of exports (see the March 2012 IEQ for more details on the important role of imports in export value-added in Indonesia). The long-term effect of investment appears weaker, whereas that of exports remains strong. As expected, a rise in the price of imported goods relative to domestic goods results in lower import demand. A decomposition of the annual growth of real imports shows that the slowdown in exports explains a large portion of the decline in 2012, while the demand for imported inputs to export production is estimated to have contributed almost all import growth in 2013. These findings suggest that import compression does not necessarily lead to an improvement in the trade balance, as it may be related to lower exports. The significant decline in investment growth, as discussed in Section 2, is also reflected in the composition of import demand in 2013. Finally, higher import prices, in part caused by the weaker Rupiah in 2013, have also negatively affected imports. Table 4: Investment and exports drive the demand for Figure 15: Weakening exports reduced import growth in 2012, real imports and exports contributed to most import growth in 2013 (estimated contribution to import volume growth, percentage points) ∆ Ln Imports 18% Cons Short-term effect: Inv ∆ Ln Consumption -0.11 16% Exp (0.16) 14% ∆ Ln Investment 0.49** Rel prices 12% Other (0.21) ∆ Ln Exports 0.59*** 10% (0.10) 8% ∆ Ln Relative prices -0.15(*) 6% (0.10) 4% Long-term effect: Ln Consumption -0.05 2% (0.31) 0% Ln Investment 0.22* -2% (0.11) -4% Ln Exports 0.87*** 2010 2011 2012 2013 (0.17) ∆ Ln Relative prices -0.28* (0.16) Coefficient on error correction term: -0.51*** (0.10) Number of observations 83 R-squared   0.73 Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** Note: “Other” includes the impact of lagged import growth and the p<0.05, * p<0.1, (*) p<0.15 regression residual Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 10 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly 5. Following the tightening of monetary policy, credit growth is cooling Monetary policy has In the second half of last year, Bank Indonesia (BI) adopted a clear focus on facilitating the been tightened… adjustment of Indonesia’s external balances, which is proceeding as described in Section 4 above. Monetary policy was tightened over June-November 2013, with BI raising the lower bound of its interest rate corridor (the overnight deposit facility, FASBI, rate) and reference rate by a cumulative 175 basis points, to 5.75 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively. In addition, BI also increased the secondary reserve requirement from 2.5 percent in September to 4 percent in December, and the foreign exchange reserve requirement from 1 to 8 percent over the same period. Box 2 provides additional perspective on the monetary policy stance. A tighter monetary policy stance in the second half of last year, as well as lower credit demand stemming from moderate fixed investment growth, has contributed to a slowdown in credit growth. Moderating deposit growth and limited loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) headroom, especially for some smaller banks, indicate that weaker credit growth is likely to persist in the near term. …while currency Turning to currency market conditions, there have been several positive developments in market conditions have recent months. The Rupiah has strengthened by more than 6 percent from IDR 12,242 per improved US Dollar at the beginning of 2014 to 11,449 on March 10 2014. International reserves increased from USD 95 billion in September 2013 to USD 100 billion in January 2014. In addition, on March 6, 2014 Bank Indonesia and the Bank of Korea established a bilateral currency swap arrangement for up to KRW 10.7 trillion (IDR 115 trillion) for an initial period of three years. Finally, on February 19, 2014 the Association of Banks in Singapore adopted the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) as the fixing for non-deliverable forwards (NDFs), which followed the convergence of offshore and onshore Rupiah exchange rates since October 2013. The move sends a positive signal of market confidence in price transparency in the onshore spot foreign exchange market as overseen by Bank Indonesia, and should facilitate currency hedging by foreign investors using NDFs, potentially supporting portfolio inflows. Box 2: A Taylor Rule perspective on Indonesia’s monetary policy stance The Taylor rule* provides additional perspective on the Figure 16: After recent rate hikes, the BI policy rate is close monetary policy stance, by evaluating the nominal interest rate to a Taylor-rule estimate based on core inflation relative to deviations in inflation from target and output from (spread between the BI rate and the Taylor rule-based optimal rate, potential output. Using recent IMF (2012) coefficient estimates, percentage points, LHS; the BI reference rate percent, RHS) the difference between the BI policy rate (i.e. the reference rate) 0.0 8 and the Taylor rule-based optimal policy rate can be calculated 7 (Figure 16). In this estimate core CPI is used as the inflation -0.5 BI rate (RHS) gauge, since headline CPI rose significantly and temporarily due 6 to the impact of the one-time increase in administered fuel -1.0 prices in June 2013. The negative spread seen over 2011 and 5 2012 indicates that the policy rate was less than that predicated -1.5 4 by the above specification of the Taylor rule. This spread, while remaining negative, declined significantly in absolute value in Spread (LHS) 3 -2.0 2013 as BI raised the reference rate leading to tighter monetary 2 conditions. -2.5 1 However, actual overall liquidity conditions are likely to be tighter than suggested by an assessment focusing narrowly on -3.0 0 the BI policy rate for two reasons. First, since 2012 BI has undertaken important prudential measures with a tightening bias: lower loan-to-value (June 2012) and loan-to-deposit ratios (August 2013), increased down-payments for residential Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations based on IMF (2012) estimates property beyond the primary residence (September 2013), and higher secondary reserve requirement ratios (December 2013). Second, money market rates, which had been lower than the BI reference rate for more than two years, rose above the policy rate in November 2013, introducing additional liquidity tightness. Note: *Taylor, John B., 1993, “Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, pp. 195-214. ** For methodological details and coefficient estimates, see IMF, 2012, “Indonesia: Selected Issues”, Country Report No. 12/278 M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 11 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Credit growth has Nominal bank credit growth has fallen from 23.1 percent yoy at the beginning of 2013 to decelerated further… 21.6 percent in December. In real terms (deflated using CPI inflation), credit growth went down from 18 percent yoy in January 2013 to 12.2 percent in December. Since foreign currency-denominated credit accounts for 16 percent of total outstanding credit, the nominal credit figures were inflated by the Rupiah depreciation seen during 2013. Hence, excluding currency effects, the credit growth reduction is more significant than the above numbers suggest, with nominal credit up 17.4 yoy in December on this basis, according to BI. .. mostly owing to the Consumer credit, which accounts for a quarter of total credit, drove the slowdown in slowdown in consumer nominal credit growth. Consumer credit growth decreased from 20 percent yoy in mid-2013 credit. to 13.7 percent at the end of the year. Although household consumption has so far remained resilient, financing constraints may yet weaken spending in the near term, suggesting additional downward pressure on real consumption, as discussed in Section 2. At the same time, the growth rates of working capital credit, which constitutes almost 50 percent of total credit, and investment credit have remained stable at 20 and 32 percent yoy, respectively, since June last year. Weaker credit Deposit growth continued to ease at a faster rate than lending growth, causing higher Loan- conditions are likely to to-Deposit Ratios (LDRs), which may further constrain credit growth. Deposit growth in persist, given slowing December was 13.3 percent yoy, down from 15.6 percent yoy a year earlier. The aggregate deposit growth and LDR of commercial banks was 89.7 percent in December 2013, up from 83.6 percent at limited LDR headroom end-2012 and close to the ceiling of the BI target band of 92 percent. The five biggest banks’ LDRs were below the BI upper limit. However, across a sample of 25 banks accounting for 75 percent of bank assets, the LDRs of smaller banks, i.e. those with asset size of less than 200 trillion Rupiah, varied considerably from 60 to 109 percent (Figure 17). About 30 percent of banks in this category had LDRs above the ceiling of BI’s target band. Figure 17: Commercial bank lending rates have risen by less Figure 18: Smaller banks are more vulnerable to the than the BI policy rate slowdown in deposit growth (percent) (bank assets, IDR trillion, x-axis and bubble size; LDRs, percent) 16 120 14 Consumption 110 Working Capital 100 12 Investment 90 10 80 8 BI rate 70 6 60 4 50 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 0 200 400 600 800 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Note: sample of 25 banks accounting for 75 percent of total banking sector assets; lines represent BI loan to deposit target band Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Aggregate banking risk Indonesia’s banking sector health indicators remain sound, with some pressure on liquidity metrics remain for banks with smaller asset sizes. The aggregate non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.8 healthy, with some percent at the end of 2013 from 2 percent at the beginning of the year. The capital adequacy pressure on the ratio has remained stable at just below 19 percent since April last year. There has been a liquidity of smaller small decrease in the average net interest margin, as increases in the policy rate have not banks been fully passed on to consumers. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 12 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly The establishment of a Interbank money market liquidity conditions are expected to improve after a mini repo mini repo master master agreement was established between eight banks last December and an additional agreement should thirty-eight banks in February. This new agreement is expected to increase money market support liquidity in the trading volumes and to complement the unsecured transactions which currently dominate banking system the interbank market in Indonesia. Property price growth Property sector lending (about 15 percent of total bank lending) and price growth have has also slowed down decelerated since mid-2013. This is in line with tighter monetary conditions, and the imposition of more stringent property loan-to-value ratios adopted last year may have also had an impact. The deceleration in lending in Q4 appears marked; in December, lending growth for property was down to 26.5 percent yoy or 1.1 percent qoq from 30.6 percent yoy or 4.9 percent qoq in September. Residential house prices increased by 1.8 percent qoq in December compared with a recent high of 4.8 percent qoq in March 2013. Smaller residential house prices experienced the largest slowdown, from 8.6 percent qoq in March to 1.8 percent in December. Residential apartment price growth peaked at 12 percent qoq in June and slowed down to 9 percent in September and 3.5 percent in December. Industrial land price growth also decreased from 13 percent qoq in June to 0.9 percent in December. 6. Much less fiscal room to maneuver in 2014 Fiscal pressure from The Government’s 2013 fiscal deficit outturn was lower than projected, mostly due to revenue moderation shortfalls in expenditure disbursements rather than improvement in the revenue collection. and fuel subsidy Marked moderation in revenue growth is expected to continue in 2014, while on the spending call for expenditure side, fuel subsidy spending continues to impose significant fiscal pressure on the further fiscal reforms budget, emphasizing the importance of additional reform measures. The provisional fiscal According to the currently available unaudited figures, the 2013 Budget recorded a deficit of deficit for 2013 was 2.2 IDR 209.5 trillion (2.2 percent of GDP), which was below the projected 2.4 percent in the percent of GDP revised 2013 Budget and the World Bank’s projections in the December 2013 edition of the IEQ of 2.5 percent of GDP. The lower than projected budget deficit for 2013, despite weaker than budgeted revenue growth, primarily reflects recorded expenditure disbursement shortfalls relative to the revised Budget allocations. Revenue collection and Revenue collection reached only 95.2 percent of the 2013 revised Budget projection of IDR nominal growth in 2013 1,502 trillion. This was mostly driven by the weaker realization of tax revenues at 93.4 was significantly below percent of the 2013 target. In comparison with previous years, this was the lowest realization that in previous of the revised revenue target since 2006. Non-tax revenue collection was in line with Budget years… projections, supported by strong oil and gas revenue outcomes resulting from the weaker Rupiah. Overall, total revenues recorded only moderate nominal growth of 6.8 percent yoy in 2013, well below average nominal growth of 16.5 percent over 2010-2012 (Figure 19). Below-average growth was observed for all major types of revenues (Figure 20). … while energy By the end of 2013, total expenditure disbursements reached 95 percent of the revised subsidy costs again Budget plan of IDR 1,726 trillion, lower than the outcome of 96.3 percent in 2012. overshot the revised Nevertheless, the disbursement of the core spending categories, namely capital and social Budget target spending, increased compared with previous years, at 89.1 percent for capital (82.4 percent in 2012) and 95.9 percent for social spending (87.9 percent in 2012). The improvement in the disbursement rate of capital spending is notable, although the nominal growth rate of capital spending was down slightly on 2013 at 18 percent (versus 23 percent in 2012). Material spending disbursement was slightly lower in 2013 (85.5 percent of the plan) than in 2012 (87.0 percent of the annual target). Finally, 2013 saw another overshooting of the revised Budget target for fuel subsidy spending, by IDR 10 trillion (5 percent more than planned), to IDR 210 trillion. In addition, fuel subsidy obligations of IDR 40 trillion were incurred towards the end of the year but not paid and therefore not included in the cash based 2013 Budget outturn. These would take the accrued fuel subsidy expenses in 2013 to IDR 240-250 trillion. The additional IDR 40 trillion, or about 20 percent of the fuel subsidy budget, is likely to be paid in 2014. This represents about 0.3 percent of GDP and would impose additional fiscal pressure on the 2014 budget. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 13 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 19: Nominal revenue growth has decelerated faster Figure 20: …on the back of a broad-based fall in collection than expenditure growth over the last three years … across revenue sources (nominal growth yoy, percent, and percent of GDP) (yoy nominal growth, percent) Revenues (LHS, nominal growth yoy, %) Income tax O&G Income tax N-O&G Expenditures (LHS, nominal growth yoy, %) Sales tax (VAT) Excises Budget balance (RHS, % of GDP) Int'l trade taxes NTR O&G 50 0.0 NTR N-O&G 40 100 -0.5 30 80 20 -1.0 60 10 40 -1.5 0 20 -2.0 -10 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20 -2.5 -20 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations Note: NTR denotes non-tax revenues, O&G denotes oil and gas, N- O&G denotes non-oil and gas Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations Table 5: The World Bank’s fiscal deficit projection for 2014 has been revised up on weaker revenues and higher subsidy spending (IDR trillion, unless otherwise indicated) 2013 2014 2014 2014 Preliminary actual Budget WB IEQ Q4 2013 WB IEQ Q1 2014 A. State Revenues and Grants 1,429 1,667 1,603 1,581 1. Tax Revenues 1,072 1,280 1,245 1,216 2. Non-Tax Revenues 353 385 353 362 B. Expenditures 1,639 1,842 1,819 1,845 1. Central Government, o/w 1,126 1,250 1,234 1,259 Personnel 221 263 261 261 Material 168 216 184 184 Capital 172 184 185 185 Subsidies, o/w 355 334 391 416 Fuel Subsidies* 210 211 239 267 Electricity Subsidies 100 71 100 103 2. Transfers to the Regions 513 593 585 586 C. Primary Balance -97 -54 -88 -138 D. Surplus/Deficit -210 -175 -216 -264 as percent of GDP -2.2 -1.7 -2.1 -2.6 E. Net Financing 230 175 n.a. n.a. 1. Domestic Financing 243 196 n.a. n.a. 2. Foreign Financing -17 -21 n.a. n.a. Key Economic Assumptions Economic growth (percent) 5.7 6.0 5.3 5.3 CPI (yoy, percent) 8.4 5.5 6.8 6.2 Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 10,542 10,500 11,800 12,000 Crude oil price (USD/barrel) 106 105 103 105 Oil production ('000 barrels/day) 825 870 n.a. n.a. Note: *For 2013, excluding subsidy costs incurred towards the end of the year, but not yet paid by Government Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 14 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly In the absence of Taking into account World Bank macro assumptions for 2014, previous trends, as well as revisions, the 2014 the expected effect of the minerals export ban on revenues (see Section B1), the World Bank budget deficit is projects a fiscal deficit of 2.6 percent of GDP for 2014 (Table 5), more than the 2.1 percent projected to be 2.6 of GDP deficit projected in the previous December IEQ. The revision is primarily a result percent of GDP of a downward-revision in the forecast for tax revenue collection. Lower tax revenues are projected for two reasons: an expected slowdown in VAT collection due to lower private consumption and import growth, and a reduction of the corporate income tax collection due to the mineral export ban (see Section B.1). In addition to moderation in revenue collection, the World Bank has revised up its projection of fiscal spending by 1.4 percent, mostly due to higher expected energy subsidy spending at the exchange rate prevailing in Q1 through March 7 (see Box 3 for a further discussion of fuel subsidy spending and reform options). The Government is The Government has Figure 21: Fuel subsidies continue to expose the budget considering revisions announced that the targets set to Rupiah-denominated market fuel price pressures to the 2014 Budget to in the 2014 Budget will likely be (thousand IDR per liter) align macroeconomic hard to reach and has released Subsidy gap (IDR/liter) IDR/USD assumptions with less optimistic macroeconomic Unsubsidized petrol price (Pertamax 88, IDR/liter) recent developments assumptions for 2014 (Table Subsidized petrol price (IDR/liter) 6).1 The Government will likely 12 revise the 2014 Budget (possibly in May), likely entailing a 10 reduced revenue target, in line 8 with weaker than expected 6 revenue performance in 2013, and given that no policy 4 changes have been announced 2 to improve collection in 2014. In addition, projected oil lifting 0 will be revised down from 870 Feb‐06 Feb‐08 Feb‐10 Feb‐12 Feb‐14 to 800-830 thousand barrels per Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations day (bpd), posing an additional fiscal risk, although likely to be offset to some degree by exchange rate effects. The World Bank estimates that reduction of oil lifting of 10,000 bpd would reduce revenue collection by IDR 3 trillion, mostly through non-tax revenues (about IDR 2.4 trillion), all else constant. Given the continuing significant fiscal pressure from fuel subsidies, amplified by the weakening of the Rupiah in H2 2013 that widened the gap between regulated and market prices (Figure 21), the revised Budget may provide an opportunity for fuel subsidy reform, building on last year’s price increase. The Government is exploring the option of a fixed fuel subsidy per liter.2 An additional option is to set a fixed total nominal subsidy cost limit, enhancing the Government’s ability to control spending; Box 3 examines these options. Another rise in electricity tariffs for large businesses and industrial groups has been approved by Parliament, likely effective in May.3 Gross financing for As of March 10, 2014, 44.5 percent of gross security financing requirements for 2014 (IDR 2014 has been front- 370.4 trillion) had already been met, helped by the front-loading of external issuance, loaded including a record-size tying USD 4 billion issue for an Asian emerging economy in January. Table 6: The Government has adopted less optimistic macroeconomic assumptions for 2014 Budget Ministry of Finance WB IEQ WB IEQ (APBN) Revised outlook Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Economic growth ( percent) 6.0 5.8 - 6.0 5.3 5.3 CPI (yoy, percent) 5.5 5.4 - 5.7 6.8 6.2 Exchange rate (IDR/USD) 10,500 11,500 - 12,000 11,800 12,000 Crude oil price (USD/bbl) 105 103 - 105 103 105 Oil production ('000 bbl/day) 870 800 - 830 n.a. n.a. Source: Ministry of Finance 1http://www.kemenkeu.go.id/Berita/pemerintah-kaji-kemungkinan-revisi-apbn-2014 2 http://www.kemenkeu.go.id/en/Berita/fixed-subsidy-alternative-energy-reform 3 http://www.kemenkeu.go.id/Berita/kenaikan-ttl-hemat-anggaran-subsidi-hingga-rp8-triliun M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 15 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 3: Following last year’s subsidized fuel price increase, more fuel subsidy reform is needed Substantial fuel subsidy overspending in 2013 highlights the need for further and sustained reform to reduce budget uncertainty and limit budget spending exposure, in addition to reducing the opportunity costs of such poorly-targeted and distortionary spending. Despite the 44 percent and 22 percent increase in subsidized petrol and diesel prices, respectively in June 2013, fuel subsidy spending again overshot the revised budgeted level on the back of subsequent Rupiah depreciation, accounting for nearly one fifth of central government spending or 2.2 percent of GDP. This experience shows that ad-hoc price adjustment cannot protect fuel subsidy spending from volatility in oil prices and the Rupiah exchange rate, and does not guarantee sustained fiscal gains. Fuel subsidy spending therefore continues to pose significant downside risks to the fiscal position in 2014, which remains highly sensitive through fuel subsidy costs to the exchange rate and crude oil price. The World Bank's baseline projections for fuel subsidy spending in 2014 assume an average US Dollar/Rupiah exchange rate of 12,000 and an Indonesian crude oil price of 105 USD per barrel. Thus, without reform, the fiscal deficit in 2014 is projected to reach 2.6 percent of GDP. If 2013 fuel subsidy payment arrears were to be carried forward to 2014 without a commensurate rolling over into 2015 of current year subsidy costs, the fiscal deficit may reach as high as 3.0 percent. For illustrative purpose, two reform scenarios are simulated to examine potential impact on fiscal deficit and saving that can be allocated for much needed development priorities such infrastructure and social security. Two scenarios are assumed to be effective in July 1st, 2014: Scenario I: assumes a similar nominal Rupiah per liter increase as in June 2013, of IDR 2,000 per liter for gasoline and IDR 1,000 per liter for diesel. All else equal, this would reduce the fiscal deficit to 2.1 percent of GDP, generating a fiscal saving of about IDR 45 trillion in 2014, and IDR 97 trillion in 2015. As discussed previously, this one-off price adjustment still exposes the budget to future exchange rate and international energy price volatility. Scenario II: assumes an increase in subsidized gasoline and diesel prices by closing the gap between current subsidized prices and market prices by half. This would mean a 30 percent and 50 percent nominal price increase for gasoline and diesel. Under this scenario, all else equal, the projected fiscal deficit in 2014 is 1.9 percent of GDP and the estimated fiscal savings are IDR 69 trillion, increasing to IDR 144 trillion in 2015. Table 7: Further fuel subsidy reform is needed to ease fiscal pressures Projected fiscal deficit Estimated fiscal saving (percent of GDP) (IDR trillion) 2014 2014 2015 2014 Budget 1.7 n.a n.a Baseline/no reform 2.6 n.a n.a Scenario I: Increasing subsidized gasoline and diesel prices by 2.1 45.2 97.2 IDR 2,000 and IDR 1,000 per liter respectively, as in June 2013 Scenario II: Increasing subsidized gasoline and diesel prices 1.9 68.8 144.2 by closing half of the gaps to economic prices In addition to the above indicative scenarios, to reduce the amount and uncertainty of the fuel subsidy, the alternative fuel pricing policy should strive for simplicity, transparency and predictability to ensure better public understanding and easy implementation. A wide range of approaches have been tried in various countries. While all of them have advantages and disadvantages, there are two potential realistic options for the Indonesian context, which involve a move from discretionary to rule-based price adjustments:  Option 1: Indexation (with threshold). Periodically moving prices through a pre-agreed rule. Under this option, prices can move both up and down. Domestic prices are reviewed on a periodic basis (monthly, quarterly, etc). A pre-agreed rule is used to set a new domestic price (or keep it the same), with reference to recent world prices.  Option 2. Quarterly subsidy spending limits. Announce subsidy limits for the coming budget year by quarter, and then adjust prices in subsequent quarters when there is a breach in the target, which would limit the fiscal exposure of the Budget. The quarterly limits would be based on observed fuel consumption patterns and assumed prices, converted into Rupiah. This would allow adjustment of prices in the subsequent quarter based on the prior quarter’s total subsidy spending. The basis upon which this could be done would be transparent and rule-based, aiming to depoliticize the price adjustment process. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 16 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly 7. As external risks abate, longer-term reforms regain priority External pressures The World Bank’s baseline Figure 22: Gross external financing needs and liquidity risks have subsided for now, projection is of continuing remain substantial but may re-intensify… adjustment of Indonesia’s (USD billion (LHS), percent (RHS)) external balances and of USD Short-term debt by remaining maturity Percent only a relatively modest (LHS) Current account (C/A) deficit, 4 qtr. further reduction in 90 rolling sum (LHS) 100 economic growth. This base Ratio of C/A deficit plus short-term case is predicated on the 70 debt, to reserves 80 continued availability of sufficient external financing, 50 60 in light of Indonesia’s significant gross external 30 40 financing needs, stemming not only from its current account deficit (expected to 10 20 be approximately USD 24.4 billion in 2014), but also -10 0 sizable external debt Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 repayments (with external debt with a remaining Source: CEIC, World Bank staff calculations maturity of one year or less totaling USD 56.7 billion as of December, according to BI) (Figure 22). Investor sentiment has recently improved, as highlighted above, but, nevertheless, a resumption of heightened volatility in external financing conditions remains a risk, particularly as the US Federal Reserve continues to “taper”. Similarly, the expected improvement in Indonesia’s trading partner growth is supportive of exports, but there is still a risk of weaker than projected external demand, in particular in relation to the trade impact of China’s economic rebalancing. China’s economic trajectory may also further impact commodity prices, decreases in which pose another external downside risk to the outlook. …while uncertainty Until now most of the macroeconomic adjustment in Indonesia has come from fixed remains around the investment, while private consumption has continued to grow at a robust rate. There is a risk path of that slower credit and property price growth (see Section 5) and higher real interest rates, macroeconomic could have a more negative than anticipated impact on investment, including building adjustment… investment and construction (which have so far remained resilient), and consumption. Further exchange rate depreciation or volatility may also weigh on the economy, by raising the domestic prices of imported goods (both investment and consumption goods), the Rupiah costs of foreign-currency debt on private and public sector balance sheets, as well as through the fiscal burden of fuel subsidies (see Box 3). In addition to these downside risks, the effect of the upcoming national elections on consumption, through campaign-related spending, and on investment, through heightened policy uncertainty, is another risk factor. ... with vulnerabilities The World Bank’s base case projections include a considerable improvement in Indonesia’s rising considerably in trade balance in 2014. However, this scenario is subject to several risks, all of which relate to the export sector the export sector. On the upside, Section 4 showed that non-commodity exports have not yet responded to the more competitive exchange rate, and could therefore provide a positive surprise if not held back by structural constraints. On the downside, recent policies limiting the export of minerals, constraining foreign ownership, raising export taxes, and suppressing imports are likely to reduce exporters’ margins, and may also weigh on future FDI. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 17 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly The macroeconomic While Indonesia’s economy continues to adjust in a favorable direction for safeguarding stabilization of recent near-term macroeconomic stability, driven mainly by monetary policy and helped by months needs to be Indonesia’s flexible exchange rate, some recent trade and investment policy and regulatory reinforced by trade and developments increase uncertainty and may weigh on investment, both domestic and investment policy foreign, and hence external financing and growth. With political noise increasing ahead of certainty, and more legislative elections in April, and presidential elections in July, it will be particularly important fiscal reforms… to minimize policy uncertainties, and to the extent to possible make continued progress on strengthening Indonesia’s economic resilience and sustainable growth (as focused on in Section C). However, recent policy and regulatory developments, including the partial ban on mineral exports (as discussed next, in Section B.1), and also new trade and foreign ownership laws, and the delay in implementing the revised negative investment list, are having the opposite effect. More fiscal sector reforms to safeguard stability and enhance the use of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic management tool, and support long-run growth, also remain urgent. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 18 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly B.Some recent developments in Indonesia’s economy 1. A closer look at Indonesia’s unprocessed mineral export ban The recent ban on Indonesia is rich in minerals and in the top ten countries in the world for proven reserves of unprocessed mineral copper, nickel, tin, bauxite and gold. Total mineral export value more than tripled from exports has focused USD 3 billion to USD 11.2 billion between 2001 and 2013, driven by historically high attention on policy in commodity prices and increasing production (Figure 23). Mineral exports constituted 6.2 Indonesia’s important percent of total exports in 2013 with copper, nickel, tin, iron and bauxite the largest minerals sector, with contributors. By value, approximately forty percent of total mineral exports are currently concerns over the processed; all tin exports are processed, while most copper, nickel and bauxite exports are ban’s near-term impact unprocessed. The recent imposition of a partial ban and export tax on unprocessed mineral on trade and fiscal exports has triggered intense debate on its potential impact, and has important implications revenues and its for the overall mining sector and wider economic outlook. This Section examines the policy longer-term economic rationale, the estimated near- and medium-term trade and fiscal implications, and options implications for future policy discussions. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 19 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 23: Indonesia’s mineral exports increased Figure 24: Close to 40 percent of mineral exports are significantly in the 2000s processed (US Dollar value of mineral exports, index, 2001 = 100) (2013 share of total exports, percent, and processed and unprocessed exports, USD million) Copper Nickel Bauxite Unprocessed Mineral Exports 1600 5,000 2.5% 1400 Processed Mineral Exports 4,000 2.0% 1200 Share of Mineral in Total Exports 1000 3,000 1.5% 800 2,000 1.0% 600 400 1,000 0.5% 200 0 0.0% 0 Source: World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database; World Source: WITS database; World Bank staff calculations bank staff estimates a. Background and current status of regulations The 2009 Mining Law The 2009 Mining Law (Undang Undang /2009) requires all mining business permit (Izin Usaha established the policy Pertambangan, IUP) and Contract of Work (CoW) holders to ‘add value’ to mining products of adding value in the through domestic refining and processing within five years, i.e. by January 2014. More than mineral sector through three years after the Mining Law, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) domestic processing Regulation 7/2012 explicitly compelled producers to formulate smelting plans, defined but the first minimum standards for domestic processing and refining, and imposed a ban on the export implementing of raw mineral ores within three months of the regulation (by May 2012). Three months regulation was only later, MEMR 11/2012 postponed the May 2012 export ban until January 2014. In the issued in 2012 interim period, producers were allowed to export unprocessed minerals, but IUP holders were subject to a 20 percent export duty. The government On January 11, 2014, a day before the export ban was due to take effect, the Government enacted a ban on announced a new regulation, GR 1/2014, which upheld the ban on unprocessed exports of unprocessed mineral nickel and bauxite but permitted the continued export of semi-processed ‘concentrates’ for exports in January the other minerals, including copper, until 2017. However, in an unanticipated development, 2014, although last all producers, including CoW holders, are now subject to an export tax on unprocessed and minute revisions semi-processed mineral exports as specified in Ministry of Finance (MoF) Regulation exempted certain 6/2014. The export tax rates, starting at 20-25 percent of sales revenues4 in 2014 and minerals and imposed increasing to 60 percent by 2016, have been described by the Government as a fiscal an unanticipated instrument to compel companies to build smelters, rather than as a revenue generating tool5 export tax on them (Table 8). It is assumed, in the scenario analysis below, based on an analysis of aggregate instead profit margins for Indonesian mining companies6, that once the tax rate climbs to 40 percent companies will cease to export unprocessed minerals as it will no longer be profitable. There is still The implementation of the ban may still be subject to change given current and potential considerable policy legal challenges and negotiations. For example, the Indonesian Mineral Entrepreneurs uncertainty in light of Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Mineral Indonesia, APEMINDO) has already filed a legal current and potential challenge in Indonesia’s constitutional court over the differential treatment of different 4 Interpreting “% tax applicable” in the MoF regulation as percentage of sales revenues. Source: “The Export Ban as Finally Introduced – A Grand Compromise with much Residual Uncertainty”, Bill Sullivan, Coal Asia, Vol. 39 (Jan 23 2014) 5 Source: “Indonesia Defies Freeport on Export Tax”, Jakarta Post, January 30 2014 (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/01/30/indonesia-defies-freeport-export-tax.html) 6 Source: “mineIndonesia 2013: 11th Annual Review of Trends in the Indonesian Mining Industry”, Pricewaterhouse Coopers Indonesia (PwC Indonesia) M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 20 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly legal challenges by minerals.7 CoW holders have objected to the new export tax, maintaining that they are only producers; in the liable for those taxes specifically included in their contracts, and have voiced the possibility meantime mineral of going to international arbitration.8 The ongoing debate on the validity of the regulations exports have been and how to apply them have delayed the issuance of export permits for both processed and severely impacted unprocessed minerals with reports that some producers have halted exports in objection to the export tax.9 The latest trade data show that mineral exports (including copper concentrate) were very low in January. Table 8: Current regulations impose a partial ban with an increasing export tax on remaining unprocessed mineral exports Mineral Unprocessed Export tax on unprocessed Export tax on unprocessed exports as percent of sales revenue exports exports? 2014 2015 2016 banned? H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 Nickel Yes n.a. as exports banned n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Bauxite Yes n.a. as exports banned n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Copper No Yes, for IUP and CoW 25 25 35 40 50 60 Iron No Yes, for IUP and CoW 20 25 35 40 50 60 Ore Lead No Yes, for IUP and CoW 20 25 35 40 50 60 Zinc No Yes, for IUP and CoW 20 25 35 40 50 60 n.a. as all Indonesian tin exports are currently Tin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. processed Source: GoI Regulations (GR 1/2014, MoF 6/2014); World Bank Staff Summary. b. Examining the rationale and assumptions behind the unprocessed mineral export ban The policy rationale for The underlying economic rationale put forward by the Government for the ban is that it the ban rests on a (and also the new export tax) will stimulate domestic smelting and processing capacity, number of key which will lead to significantly higher value-addition in mineral exports.10 Higher value- assumptions, some of added mineral exports will contribute to higher GDP, an improved trade balance, enhanced which may not hold fiscal revenues and job creation. While recognizing that the ultimate goals of enhancing GDP growth and employment generation are clearly at the center of any country’s development agenda, it is important to highlight that the above logic rests on a number of key assumptions. The ban may stimulate First, that the ban will stimulate new investment in smelters and refineries. The extent to few new investments in which this is true depends on their economic viability and Indonesia’s share of global ore domestic smelting and production, both of which vary across minerals. For copper, lead and zinc, additional refining, except for in investments in processing appear unlikely to be economically viable in current conditions nickel, due to a lack of given low margins from global overcapacity in smelting and refining. In addition, overseas economic viability and processors are less compelled to invest as they can secure ore supplies elsewhere (Indonesia global market power… accounted for less than 2 percent of global production in copper, lead and zinc in 2012 and does not have a major share of reserves for any of these commodities.11) Investments in bauxite and iron ore are more likely to be viable if the raw ore can be accessed cheaply, although bauxite refining is input-intensive (especially for energy), placing Indonesia at a disadvantage compared to other countries such as China. If construction of smelters is not viable in its own right, there will be pressure for government subsidies - mineral producers have already started to call for government financial support to build smelters.12 7 “Indonesian Mining Group Challenges Ore Export Ban in Court”, Reuters, January 22 2014 http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/22/indonesia-minerals-court-idUKL3N0KW3JB20140122 8 “More Pain for Miners as Government Demands Surety Bonds”, Jakarta Post, February 7 2014 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/02/07/more-pain-miners-govt-demands-surety- bond.html 9 “Miners hold up exports due to higher duties”, Jakarta Post, February 5 2014. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/02/04/miners-hold-exports-due-higher-duties.html 10 “Exporting Ore = Illegal”, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resource Press Statement, February 25 2014, http://www.esdm.go.id/news-archives/mineral/48-mineral-en/6730-exporting-ore-illegal.html 11 US Geological Survey of Metals and Minerals (2013) 12 Indonesian Government Must Offer Incentives to Build Smelters – PT Indosmelt, Reuters, February 4 2014. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/indonesia-indosmelt-idUKL3N0L91D920140204 M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 21 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Nickel smelters are likely to be the most viable, as Indonesia is the world's second largest exporter of nickel ore13, and the largest supplier of low-grade nickel ore for Chinese Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) producers14. The ban on export of nickel ore may prompt an increase in smelter investment from Chinese NPI producers in Indonesia in the short term, provided that the considerable energy requirements for a smelter are satisfied.15 However, in the medium to long term, new NPI smelter investments in Indonesia may be limited if Chinese NPI producers secure other low sources of low grade nickel ore, such as the Philippines16, and Chinese stainless steel manufacturers substitute away from NPI. …Increased mineral A second key assumption is that increased smelting and refining will increase the share of processing may not value added in mineral exports. In reality, mineral processing is input, especially energy, necessarily raise intensive so the actual value-addition is far less than the difference in the market prices of domestic value- ore and processed minerals. For instance, copper downstream processing has three steps: addition by as much concentrating the mined copper ore to increase copper content from 3 to 30 percent; given the high input smelting concentrate into blister, which is 99 percent copper; refining blister into copper. costs… About 96 percent of copper’s market value is derived from the first step of concentration, and this is already done on mine site in Indonesia, with only 4 percent of final value generated in copper smelting.17 … The overall impact A third assumption is that increases in processed mineral exports will be sufficient to offset on net trade and fiscal lower unprocessed ore exports (for example, because there will be a gain from an increase in revenues could be unprocessed ore prices due to Indonesia lowering global supply). Higher net exports will, in negative due to high turn, lead to higher mineral tax revenues and royalties. However, as highlighted, apart from import costs of nickel, Indonesia does not have global market power to drive international mineral ore prices building new up by reducing its supply. Moreover, the substantial import requirements to build and smelters… operate smelters could offset trade balance gains from increased exports, and the construction costs, and later depreciation charges, of smelters will lower corporate profits and hence income taxes (which constitute two-thirds of mining fiscal revenues). The overall impact on net trade and fiscal revenues could therefore be negative, as discussed below. … Some better jobs, Finally, although increased domestic processing may well create some better quality jobs in but unlikely to be more the sector, the number of new jobs is likely to be limited given that processing is very capital, jobs in the sector not labor, intensive. Net job creation (new processing jobs minus lost mineral production jobs) due to this policy is uncertain, but could be negative. Mineral producers have already stated that the reduction in unprocessed mineral exports from the ban will result in thousands of job losses.18 c. Estimating the short- to medium-term fiscal and trade impacts The current de jure This section presents the findings of the World Bank’s analysis of the impact of the policy is likely to lead unprocessed mineral export ban and tax in the period 2014-17. Overall, the World Bank to both short and estimates that there will be a negative impact on net trade of USD 12.5 billion and a total medium-term negative loss in fiscal revenues of USD 6.5 billion from the current (as written, de jure) policy during impacts on Indonesia’s this period. The negative impact is driven by the increase in imports of smelter/refining trade balance and equipment and the fall in unprocessed mineral exports, more than offsetting the potential fiscal revenues increase in processed mineral exports. 13 Ibid. 14 Macquarie Private Wealth Commodities Comment entitled “The Indonesian ore ban – a summary of common questions and answers”, January 14, 2014 15 Source: “Opportunities and Challenges in Indonesia’s Mineral Mining Industry”, Presentation by Indonesian Mineral Entrepreneurs Association (APEMINDO) at the Ministry of Trade (February 18 2014) 16  JP Morgan Global Commodities Research Comment entitled “Nickel: Outlook improving, but it is not a one-way street” dated March 7, 2014 17 “The Economic Effects of Indonesia’s Mineral-Processing Requirements for Export” USAID, 2013. Henceforth referred to as the Support for Economic Analysis Development in Indonesia (SEADI) report M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 22 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly A simple trade and A simple trade and fiscal revenue model has been used to analyze the impact, through 2017, revenue model was of the current policies on the trade balance and fiscal revenues. 19 The model covers all developed to analyze minerals subject to regulation but, given their magnitude and the fact that tin exports are the near-term trade already 100 percent processed, the results are driven by copper, nickel, bauxite and iron. In and fiscal impacts the model, baseline growth in unprocessed and processed mineral exports is linked to an increase in Chinese import demand for commodities (as China is Indonesia’s main buyer of mineral exports) and commodity price forecasts by the World Bank global commodities research group. The change in unprocessed and processed mineral exports (and subsequently revenue), compared with the baseline, is driven by assumptions of changes in smelter capacity to process additional minerals and the impact of the ban and export tax on unprocessed mineral exports. Table 9 summarizes the impact channels in the model. In terms of the overall balance of payments impact, it is important to note that this analysis does not incorporate the impact on profit repatriation (through the income line of the current account balance) or the direct impact on foreign direct investment flows, or indirect impact on broader capital flows. The analysis also does not include the potential impact on indirect taxes such as VAT on account of lower economic activity or other indirect fiscal effects via the cost of capital. Moreover, it is a partial equilibrium analysis with limited incorporation of second-round effects. Table 9: Both export and import channels are modeled as well as export duties/taxes, royalties and income taxes Expected contribution Trade channels Expected impact of the ban on the channel to net trade Exports of unprocessed minerals Decrease Negative Exports of processed minerals Increase in line with new processing capacity. Positive Imports of intermediate capital goods to build Increase in line with new smelter investments. Negative and operate additional smelters Expected contribution Fiscal channels Expected impact of the ban on the channel to revenues Export duties (20 percent of sales revenue) Decrease in line with decline in unprocessed Negative from unprocessed exports by IUP holders exports. Export tax (20-25 percent increasing to 60 Increase (as new tax to accompany the ban); the Positive at low tax rates; percent of sales revenue) on unprocessed amount raised will depend on unprocessed Negative at high tax rates exports by IUP and CoWs exports. Decrease in line with decline in unprocessed Royalties on unprocessed mineral exports Negative exports. Royalties on processed mineral exports Increase in line with increased processed exports. Positive Decrease in line with profit decline and increased Corporate income tax Negative depreciation costs associated with smelters. The key driver of the The additional processing capacity assumed to be stimulated by the unprocessed mineral results is the number export ban during the period 2014-17 from new smelter investments in the trade model is of smelters assumed to shown in Table 10. These new smelter investments in nickel, bauxite and iron are those that come on stream during are considered viable and realistic by the Support for Economic Analysis Development in this period, their Indonesia (SEADI) study20 and have already been financed and have or are about to capacity and required commence construction.21 A recent MEMR assessment suggests that 63 new smelting and capital expenditures refining facilities, including 40 for nickel, will become operational by 2017. Based on the available evidence this assessment of smelters achieving production by 2017 appears very optimistic, given three factors: firstly, some of these investments are unlikely to be 19 The revenue model for export duties and taxes and royalties builds on the trade model as revenues foregone (or extra revenue collected) is simply a function of projected changes in the value of mineral exports multiplied by the export duty/tax/royalty rate. The collection of corporate taxes is a function of company profits, and thus changes in corporate income tax revenues is driven by changes in sales revenues, production costs and depreciation charges. In the absence of detailed information on balance sheets of major companies, these are calculated on the basis of aggregate mineral sector profitability numbers. 20 SEADI ( 2013) 21 The Weda Bay Phase I project, financed by the French holding company Eramet is an exception. While the project was expected to commence production in 2014, Eramet announced an indefinite delay in the final investment decision in February 2014 thus increasing the risk that the project will not be completed by 2017. Therefore, the estimates presented are subject to the downside risk that the Weda Bay project does not commence production in 2017. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 23 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly economically viable from a company’s perspective22; secondly, smelter projects on average have a long lead time, in the range of 3-5 years, on account of approvals, feasibility studies, environmental clearances and potential delays due to land acquisition23; and finally, for smelters to be operational, they would require complementary inputs such as access to electricity which may not be available in the time-frame.24 Table 10: No new copper smelters are assumed to come on stream through to end 2017 (list of new nickel, bauxite and iron smelter investments stimulated by the policy included in this analysis) Smelter Initial Capex Smelter output Operational capacity for Smelter company Metal (USD of processed year raw ore billion) ore (million ton) (million ton) June 2014 CGA PT Antam Bauxite 1.54 1.1 1.1 June 2014 FeNi PT Antam Nickel (FerroNickel) 3.30 3.0 3.0 Various Iron Smelters June 2014 Iron 4.88 5.5 5.5 (inc. POSCO) Jan 2015 Harita Prima Abadi Bauxite 2.80 2.0 2.0 Nickel (Nickel Pig Jan 2016 PT Antam 0.50 0.9 0.9 Iron) Jan 2017 Weda Bay Phase 1 Nickel 3.30 3.0 3.0 Source: SEADI (2013) updated with World Bank staff assessment on the expected delay in Weda Bay Phase I nickel project. Given the uncertainty The analysis estimates the impact of the de jure policy, and two other scenarios, against the regarding the base case of no unprocessed mineral export ban and no export tax: implementation of the  De Jure Policy (Partial Ban with Export Tax): This scenario reflects a full regulations, three implementation of the current de jure policy regulations outlined in Table 8. policy scenarios were  Full Export Ban Scenario: This was the original policy to be implemented from analyzed January 2014: a ban on unprocessed exports for all minerals. This would also describe the de facto situation if significant unprocessed exports of minerals currently not banned are halted due to wrangling over the regulations, as is currently the case. It is assumed in the model that by 2016 the export tax is high enough to become binding with companies ceasing unprocessed mineral exports as it is no longer profitable to do so. Thus, the de jure policy scenario effectively becomes a full export ban from 2016 onwards.  Partial Ban, No Export Tax Scenario: This is an alternative policy scenario: a ban on nickel and bauxite, without the export tax on the remaining minerals. Compared to the de jure policy scenario, this scenario provides an estimate of the marginal effect of the export tax. Under all scenarios, Under all three policy scenarios in 2014-2015 there will likely be a significant negative impact there is a significant on net trade (Figure 29). The negative impact on net trade relative to the baseline in 2014 is negative impact on the estimated to be USD 5.3 billion under the de jure policy scenario and could be as high as trade balance in 2014- USD 7 billion under the full ban scenario. This compares to the World Bank’s current 15 and the impact baseline current account deficit projection of USD 24.4 billion or 2.9 percent of GDP in remains negative 2014, i.e. a sizeable contribution to external financing needs at a time of tightening external through to 2017 under financing conditions. The negative impact on net trade in 2015 is estimated to be between the de jure policy and USD 1.3 and USD 4.1 billion, depending on the scenario. Under the de jure policy and the full export ban scenario full export ban scenarios, the impact on net trade remains negative through to 2017, while under the scenario of a partial ban with no export tax the impact on net trade turns positive in 2017. The negative trade The negative impact on net trade is driven partly by a decline in export earnings, with the impact is driven by the loss in unprocessed mineral export earnings associated with the ban or a fall in production loss of unprocessed due to the export tax offsetting the earnings from additional processed mineral exports until 22 SEADI (2013) 23 “Smelter – Land Acquisition and Approval Process” Presentation by Julian Hill, Deloitte Indonesia at the Jakarta Foreign Correspondents Club, February 12 2014 24 “Opportunities and Challenges in Indonesia’s Mineral Mining Industry”, Presentation by Indonesian Mineral Entrepreneurs Association (APEMINDO) at the Ministry of Trade, February 18 2014 M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 24 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly mineral exports 2017 under the de jure policy and full export ban scenarios (Figure 25). The impact on offsetting the gain in exports only turns positive for all scenarios in 2017 when additional nickel smelting capacity processed mineral is scheduled to come on board through the Weda Bay project. Should Weda Bay not come exports… into production at this time, then the impact of the current policy or a full ban on exports is projected to remain negative. … and the extremely On the import side, it is estimated for all three scenarios that the increase in imports will high import costs reach USD 3.8 billion in 2014, and will remain over USD 2 billion through to 2017 (Figure associated with capital- 27) from the imports of intermediate capital goods used to build and operate additional intensive smelter smelting capacity in nickel, bauxite and iron. Smelters are extremely capital intensive and investments and expensive to build and operate: one of the proposed ferro-nickel smelters with capacity to operations process 3 million tons of nickel (10 percent of Indonesia’s current nickel ore production) has a capital cost of USD 3.3 billion with annual operating costs of USD 300 million.25 Figure 25: Estimates show a significant negative impact on Figure 26:...as well as a negative impact on collection of the trade balance in 2014-15 under all scenarios… fiscal revenues, which increases over time (estimated impact on net trade, USD billion) (estimated impact on fiscal revenues, USD billion) 10 De Jure Policy (Partial Ban + Export Tax) 4 De Jure Policy (Partial Ban + Export Tax) 8 Full Ban Scenario Full Ban Scenario 6 Partial Ban No Export Tax Scenario Partial Ban No Export Tax Scenario 2 4 2.5 2 0 0 0.0 -2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 -0.9 -4 -3.0 -3.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -3.3 -1.4 -1.4 -4.4 -4.1 -2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -6 -5.3 -2.2 -2.2 -8 -7.0 -10 -4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: World Bank staff calculations Source: World Bank staff calculations Figure 27: The negative trade impact is driven by a decline Figure 28: ...and a significant increase in imports through to in exports, particularly in 2014… 2017 from capital intensive smelter investments (estimated impact on exports, USD billion) (estimated impact on net trade through imports, USD billion) 20 De Jure Policy (Partial Ban + Export Tax) 20 De Jure Policy (Partial Ban + Export Tax) Full Ban Scenario Full Ban Scenario 15 15 Partial Ban No Export Tax Scenario Partial Ban No Export Tax Scenario 10 10 5.1 5 5 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 0 0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -2.9 -2.4 -2.6 -5 -3.2 -5 -3.8 -10 -10 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: World Bank staff calculations Source: World Bank staff calculations 25 SEADI (2013) M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 25 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly The negative impact The decline in exports and the costs of building smelters lead to a significant negative impact on exports and the cost on government revenues. Revenue loss, relative to the baseline in 2014, is estimated to be of smelters lead to a between USD 0.4 billion under the de jure policy scenario and USD 1.2 billion under the full significant short- to ban scenario. This adds pressure to a projected fiscal deficit of approximately USD 22 billion medium-term negative in 2014, which is already vulnerable to slower revenue growth and higher subsidy spending impact on fiscal with the rupiah’s depreciation. The negative impact under all scenarios increases over time revenues through to 2017 (Figure 25). Two-thirds of the estimated revenue lost is due to lower corporate income taxes as the industry experiences negative profits before tax from lower export revenues and higher smelter-related operational expenses and depreciation charges. d. Policy implications and the way forward Under the scenario that Within the scenarios considered, a full ban on all unprocessed mineral exports generates the some form of an most negative estimated impact on net trade and fiscal revenues in the short to medium unprocessed mineral term. A partial ban on nickel and bauxite (minerals that have additional smelting capacity export ban remains in coming on stream) with an export tax on other minerals, as per the current de jure policy, is place, the policy is estimated to have a lower negative impact than a full ban initially, but when the export tax likely to add significant becomes binding (which is likely at a rate of 40 percent or above) the current de jure policy pressures on effectively becomes a full ban. Removing the export tax will reduce the negative impact, but Indonesia’s trade and even a partial ban without any export tax is likely to result in a negative impact on net trade fiscal balances… and revenues, compared with the base case, over the short and medium term. These negative impacts come at a time when there remains considerable investor focus on Indonesia’s trade balance and the performance of fiscal revenues has weakened. ... other policy options The fact that a partial export ban, with no export taxes, results in the least negative net trade should be evaluated, and fiscal impact of the scenarios considered does not mean that it is good public policy. looking at broader Other policies, such as public infrastructure investments in energy, may be more effective in economic impacts, increasing domestic processing with lower efficiency costs. Given the likely sizeable negative second-round effects impact on trade and fiscal revenues of the ban, it is worthwhile to evaluate a wider set of and overall efficiency policy options. A thorough evaluation of a wider set of policy options requires deeper and welfare gains and analyses and consultation with all stakeholders, including assessing the broader, interrelated losses economic impacts (on the wider external balances through exchange rate and investment effects, on output and employment, and on corporate balance sheet effects due to possible debt financing, and profitability); differentiating between the minerals as the economic viability of processing differs across minerals; incorporating second-round effects on production and investment decisions; and analyzing overall efficiency and net welfare impact through general equilibrium analysis. Although it is not covered in this piece, the negative impact on the environment of mineral extraction and processing should also be taken into account. The overall strategy of Further analysis should also involve an assessment of the overall strategy of increasing increasing processing domestic mineral processing in order to increase the share of domestic value-addition. Other to raise mineral value strategies to increase domestic value-addition, and more generally the benefits to society, addition would benefit from the mineral sector should be considered. As discussed in Section b, the strategy of from being reviewed… domestic mineral processing may not be very successful in the context of Indonesia. …factoring in the The strategy of using export restrictions and export taxes to increase domestic mineral cautionary tales from processing has been tried in many countries, including Australia and South Africa26 (Box 4). international However, a recent global assessment by Hausman et al. (200727) emphasizes that increasing experience downstream processing for primary commodities in general has had limited impact in helping a country to move to a higher value-added export basket. Driven by a fall in transport costs and the fact that mining and processing require different inputs (and can be viewed as distinct industries), mining and processing of minerals are increasingly fragmented 26 “The Economic Impact of Export Restrictions on Raw Materials”, OECD (2010). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264096448-en 27 “Examining Beneficiation” Hausman, Klinger and Lawrence (2007), Center for International Development, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 26 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly across different countries. Moreover, some countries have succeeded in benefiting from mining primary commodities without adding value domestically, as demonstrated in the case of Chile with copper. Box 4 provides more details on the international experience. Any further policy The policy process leading to the introduction of the revised regulations in January 2014, analyses and and the subsequent legal challenges, has increased policy uncertainty in the mining sector, developments should further weakening Indonesia’s mining investment climate, which is already perceived as one avoid further of the weakest in the world.28 Over the longer term, this could prove to be the biggest increasing policy obstacle in increasing domestic value-addition, as it increases investor risk perceptions at a uncertainty in the time when economy-wide investment has already decelerated (as discussed in Part A), and is sector set against a backdrop of election-related policy uncertainty and tighter global financing and domestic credit conditions. The additional economic analysis suggested above can support evidence-based future policy development for the sector but if any further policy adjustments are proposed they should be carried out in a way that avoids adding to policy uncertainty. 28Indonesia was ranked last among 96 major mineral producing countries and jurisdictions in the Mining Policy Index, according to global mining investors, as per the latest Fraser Institute Global Survey of Mining Investors (2013) M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 27 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Box 4: International experience in promoting downstream mineral processing Policies to encourage downstream mineral processing are gaining popularity internationally and have taken various forms, from restricting exports of unprocessed commodities in one part of the value chain to providing subsidies for downstream processing and refining industries. For example, South Africa has imposed export controls on many unprocessed minerals and created financing programs to promote value-addition in mineral industries. Several other African countries have taken a similar path, such as Botswana in diamonds, Zambia in copper, Ghana in oil, and Mozambique in natural gas and coal. In Australia, tax incentives and energy subsidies have been used to promote the downstream steel industry. While the policy of promoting forward linkages in the mineral sector has gained popularity, there remains a considerable debate on its impact, with a recent cross-country empirical study failing to find positive effects in promoting value-addition in exports. Across a wide range of industries, shrinking transport costs have driven a general trend towards global fragmentation of supply chains. This trend is also seen in the mineral sector where only a very small number of countries that export unprocessed minerals also export the same processed minerals (Figure 29). Hausman et al (2007) investigate the efficacy of mineral downstream processing policies on improving value addition in exports using trade data for the period 1975–2000 for all countries and input-output data describing supply-chain linkages for 241 products. They find that increases in value added in primary commodities are not associated with increases in the share of value added in the country’s export basket in the medium to long term. Mining and mineral processing are distinct industries requiring different capabilities; a country with a major mining sector may not be able to move profitably into downstream processing. Hausman et al’s research highlights that the development of mineral processing capabilities in a country has historically been linked to comparative advantages in other factors (such as energy) rather than access to raw mineral ore. Key determinants of the location of smelters or refineries for many minerals revolve around the need for complementary inputs like low-cost power, access to land, pollution controls and other regulatory requirements, access to low-cost finance, external economies such as markets for by-products, and so on, rather than simply access to nearby minerals. Moreover, it is possible to enhance growth performance by focusing on mining and exporting of unprocessed minerals and using the associated revenues to make productivity-enhancing investments, with Chile’s experience in managing the copper industry a case in point. Chile is the world’s largest exporter of copper, accounting for over 40 percent of total global exports in 2012, and it also has the largest copper reserves in the world. Since the 1980s, Chile has not focused on processing copper within the country and exports the bulk of its copper as concentrate to China and India where it is smelted further (Figure 29); today copper still contributes 50 percent of Chile’s exports. Chile has focused on maximizing revenues from its copper concentrate exports and using the proceeds to build a strong human capital base. During this period (1982-2012), when there were also considerable political and institutional changes happening, Chile’s per capita income increased dramatically from USD 5,000 to USD 16,000 (in real 2005 USD), while poverty rates declined from more than 40 percent in 1990 to 13 percent in 2013. Figure 29: Copper is mined primarily in Chile, while refining and consumption is concentrated in China and India (2013 copper production, refining and consumption, in million metric tons) 10 Copper Mine Production Refined Copper Production Copper Consumption 8 6 4 2 0 South East Asia Africa North China and Russia and Europe Middle East Japan and America and Pacific America India CIS South countries Korea Note: East Asia and Pacific excludes China, Japan and South Korea Source: DG Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia, based on data provided by Wood MacKenzie* Source: See OECD (2010) ibid, SEADI (2013), “Fragmentation of Trade in Value Added Over Four Decades.” Johnson and Noguera (2012), NBER Working Paper No. 18186., “Examining Beneficiation” Hausman, Klinger and Lawrence (2007), Center for International Development, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, SEADI (2013), US Geological Survey of Metals and Minerals (2013). All figures from World Development Indicators (WDI) for Chile. Note: * Presentation made by DG, Mineral and Coal at Ministry of Trade dissemination event on the Mineral Export Ban titled “Implementatiasi UU RI Nomor 4 Tahum 2009 Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kebijakan Hilirisasi Pertambagan Mineral Dan Batubara” (February 18 2014) M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 28 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly 2. Applying a rapid risk diagnostic approach for building disaster and climate resilience in Indonesia’s growing cities a. Increasing urban risks in East Asia-Pacific and Indonesian cities East Asia-Pacific is Disaster- and climate-related risks in East Asia and the Pacific will continue to rise due to leading the world in increasing populations in cities. Most future urban growth will occur in developing the rate of rapid countries across this region, especially small- and medium-sized cities where urbanization urbanization and will have the most impact. From 1980 to 2010, Asia added more than one billion people to exposure to climate its cities—more than all other regions combined—and another one billion inhabitants are and disaster impacts expected to live in urban areas by 2040.29 Focusing on the Indonesian experience, this Section examines the challenge of making cities more resilient. Many urban centers Cities are traditional engines of development, concentrating businesses, knowledge, are located in technology, and diverse labor opportunities. However, many urban centers are located in hazardous zones hazardous zones: zones that lie at sites of agricultural surplus, such as fertile volcanic soils, or in seismic fault zones, or along major trade and transportation routes, which align with coasts and river systems that are prone to flooding, storm surges, and coastal erosion (Dilley et al. 2005; see also Hallegatte 2011). The increasing concentrations of people and assets in hazardous areas is the largest driver of disaster risk and the greatest challenge in building resilience at global, national and local levels.30 Indonesia’s cities are Indonesia is leading the rapid urbanization experienced across East Asia. With an average among the most prone annual urbanization rate estimated at 4.1 percent between 2000 and 2010, Indonesia is to disaster and climate urbanizing faster than its Asian counterparts, such as China (3.8 percent), India (3.1 percent) risks… and Thailand (2.8 percent). This has made Indonesia one of the most urbanized countries in Asia, with an urban population share of 54 percent in 2010. Projections of urbanization suggest that this figure will increase to 68 percent by 2025. However, Indonesia has yet to achieve the economic returns to urbanization of other countries. For every additional 1 percent that Indonesia urbanizes, it achieves just 2 percent of additional GDP, whereas other countries in the region have achieved a 6-10 percent increase in GDP per 1 percent of urbanization.31 …highlighting the Over 110 million people in about 60 Indonesian cities are exposed to natural hazards, need to align including tsunamis, earthquakes, flooding and impacts of climate change. Recent analysis infrastructure suggests that Indonesia is highly vulnerable to the consequences of a warming climate.32 In development with such particular, the eastern and western areas of densely-populated Java, the coastal regions of risks to build resilience much of Sumatra, parts of western and northern Sulawesi, and Southeastern Papua islands all rank highly on climate hazard maps. Scenarios show that higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns and rising sea levels could result in inundation of productive coastal zones and more frequent weather-related disasters, which will have increasing negative impacts on agriculture, and food and water supplies. Currently it is estimated that only 20 percent of local governments have committed sufficient funding towards infrastructure. Meanwhile, recent studies emphasize the importance of aligning infrastructure development and disaster and climate change impacts to build resilience in mid-sized cities.33 29 Asian Development Bank, 2012, “Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2012: Green Urbanization in Asia”, special chapter, Mandaluyong City, Philippines 30 Jha, Abhas K. and Zuzana Stanton-Geddes, eds. , 2013, “Strong, Safe, and Resilient: A Strategic Policy Guide for Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific” in “Directions in Development”, Washington, DC: World Bank 31 World Bank, 2013, “City Planning Labs: A Concept for Strengthening City Planning Capacity in Indonesia” 32 Yusuf, Anshori and H. Francisco, 2009, “Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia. Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia” 33 World Bank, 2012, Indonesia – “The rise of metropolitan regions: towards inclusive and sustainable regional development”, Washington, DC, World Bank M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 29 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Agglomeration leads to While urbanization increases efficiency and promotes growth, agglomeration also leads to concentrations of concentrations of rapidly-built physical assets, often without proper land use planning and rapidly built physical controls. This has not only become an underlying factor in urban congestion, but is also a assets, often without cause of the increased exposure of people to hazards in Indonesia. The cities that emerge proper land use from this rapid urban transition will lead Indonesia’s development in coming decades. planning and controls However, without strategically planned investments, policy interventions, and stronger institutional capacity, poorly managed urbanization could act as a constraint to sustainable and inclusive growth, and expose Indonesians to climate change and disaster risks. b. A framework for building urban resilience Three important steps The World Bank has introduced a practical framework for building urban resilience in the towards building urban East Asia and Pacific region. Three approaches are essential and of particular relevance to resilience include land- cities in Indonesia. use and infrastructure  First is risk-based Land-use and Infrastructure Investment Planning that identifies and investment planning, prioritizes investments to improve urban resilience over projected risks. When enacted urban infrastructure and enforced, land-use plans can control development in hazard-prone zones, facilitate upgrading and urban rescue operations, and provide sites for safe emergency evacuation centers. ecosystem  Second is Urban Infrastructure Upgrading. Slum settlements are often found in disaster- management prone areas. The typical characteristics of urban slums (over-crowded, poorly-built structures, narrow streets or alleys, lack of basic services) make the urban poor more vulnerable to disaster risks. In order to formulate the appropriate strategy for improving urban settlements, locations prone to high risks need to be identified and existing assets in these areas upgraded. For the identified locations, one or more of the strategic urban upgrading instruments could be applied, such as: (i) applying zoning regulations in disaster-prone areas (e.g. allowable activities and building codes); (ii) implementing structural and non-structural instruments for mitigation and evacuation; and (iii) upgrading the slum’s infrastructure in accordance with the citywide spatial plan.  Third is Urban Ecosystem Management, which combines investment planning with ecosystem restoration. This is essential in reducing disaster risks triggered by development investments. A number of ecosystem management procedures are relevant to urban resilience, including watershed management (riverbank area management, water catchment area management, etc.), coastal zone management, environmental buffer zones, green infrastructure, and urban landscape design. Yet, Indonesian cities Within Indonesia’s planning Figure 30: Status of city spatial plans (February 2014) face difficult hierarchy, the main instrument (share of Indonesian cities, percent) challenges in for managing development is 2% undertaking land use the detailed spatial plan; On revision zoning for resilience responsibility lies with local governments. Under Spatial Planning Law No. 26/2007, Recommended by 19-21% Governor detailed spatial plans (Rencana Detail Tata Ruang, RDTR) form the basis for zoning regulation, Proceeded for approval by National including management of Board (BKPRN) activities in areas prone to 72-77% Received Subtantive disasters, or with rapid growth Approval from MPW and high density usage. The RDTR is formulated based on, Enacted as By Law and after, the regional spatial plan (Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah, RTRW) has been Source: Directorate of Spatial Planning, Ministry of Public enacted as a local bylaw. To Work (MPW) (2014) date, over 70 percent of Indonesian cities have enacted bylaws on RTRW (Figure 30), allowing city governments to formulate detailed spatial plans and zoning regulations and to start to build resilience. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 30 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Detailed spatial plans Following Government Regulation No. 8/2013 on the scale and accuracy of maps for spatial have to be based on planning, detailed spatial plans have to be based on maps with a scale corresponding to the maps with a scale span of critical focal areas, as well as the size of objects of importance being planned. In the corresponding to the case of risk zoning, this may range from 1:5000 to 1:1000 scale maps, which are typically not span of critical focal readily available in government agencies. Where such data are unavailable, use of high- areas resolution satellite and aerial images and participatory ground survey approaches can be considered. This should be supported by proper data validation procedures to ensure that the geospatial information produced is acceptable as a formal basis for legal zoning. Failure of local Addressing disaster and climate risks in hazard prone areas with existing settlements and governments to assets is an urgent task. Failure of local governments to undertake concrete measures will undertake concrete result in new vulnerabilities continuing to arise. The complex issues of informal settlements measures will result in along Jakarta’s flood-prone rivers is an example of the absence of detailed zoning, which new vulnerabilities forces local authorities to constantly bear the costs of floods without any clear instrument to start restoring waterways and upgrade affected neighborhoods. c. A rapid risk diagnostic approach is useful to identify practical options for investing in disaster and climate resilience in Indonesian cities The initial focus for As Indonesia has many growing urban centers, it is important to start looking at urban interventions to resilience in places where interventions have the potential to have the greatest impact. Using support urban a hierarchy of Indonesian cities, from small to medium, large, metropolitan and megapolitan, resilience should be on Indonesia can start to view RTRWs as the defining criteria on where to intervene to major and mid-sized promote urban resilience. As highlighted in Table 11, most medium and large cities have had urban areas their RTRWs enacted, hence are ready to work on RDTRs for their priority development areas and high risk corridors. Table 11: Status of city regional spatial planning (RTRW) as of February 2014 Legislative steps City typology by population Total Under Recommend Proceeded for Received Enacted as by- size number revision ed by approval by substantive Law governor National Board approval from (BKPRN)* MPW Megapolitan 11 - - 1 1 9 (more than one urban center) Metropolitan 8 - - - 1 7 (population > 1 million) Large city 23 - - 1 5 17 (pop 500,000-1 million) Mid-sized city 44 - - - 10 34 (pop 100,000-500,000) Small-sized city 7 - - - 2 5 (pop < 100,000) Total 93 - - 2 19 72 Source: Ministry of Public Works, compiled by World Bank staff Note: * Some city RTRWs which cover nationally strategic zones require the approval of BKPRN M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 31 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Six cities have been Working with various national Figure 31: The six pilot cities vary in size but have selected for the rapid and sub-national partners in urban growing populations risk diagnostic exercise development, conversations with (population level in pilot cities) metropolitan and large cities on Yogyakarta Balikpapan Denpasar disaster and climate risk profiles Makassar Palembang Semarang have started through a rapid risk 1,800,000 diagnostic exercise. Six cities, 1,600,000 namely Palembang, Balikpapan, 1,400,000 1,200,000 Makassar, Semarang, Yogyakarta 1,000,000 and Denpasar, have been 800,000 preliminarily selected. These six 600,000 cities are all experiencing 400,000 population growth (Figure 31), 200,000 0 and have occasionally been 2007 2008 2009 2010 confronted by disasters. Source: BPS, compiled by World Bank staff Five cities have These six cities have also Table 12: Status of regional spatial plans (RTRWs) of cities enacted their RTRW advanced their RTRWs. under study With the exception of No. City Category Status of RTRW Makassar, all have already 1 Denpasar Metropolitan enacted as by Law Received substantive enacted the RTRW into 2 Makassar Metropolitan approval from MPW local bylaws, providing 3 Palembang Metropolitan enacted as by Law the legal ground for them 4 Yogyakarta Metropolitan enacted as by Law to start work on the 5 Semarang Metropolitan enacted as by Law RDTR and zoning 6 Balikpapan Large city enacted as by Law regulation processes (Table 12). Rapid diagnostics In each of the six cities, a risk profile was developed through rapid risk diagnostics to outline allow disaster and the story line of each city’s overall spatial structure and growth trends, the pattern of disaster climate risks and occurrence and the main affected areas, together with all existing urban investment being corresponding undertaken (Figure 32). The story line provides a snapshot of how the cities could consider priorities for resilience incorporating a resilience component in their public investment. For instance, Balikpapan is to be clearly prone to coastal flooding and is about to build a new coastal road. This investment could identified… become part of a coastal zone redevelopment, integrating a water management feature, such as lagoon retention with multi-functions for both flood control and tourism. … and common Common themes emerge across the cities, including issues of urban poverty with slum- themes emerge across dwelling populations, and traditional disaster risk management challenges for persistent the cities urban hazards of flooding and fires. With the exception of Yogyakarta, all the cities are in coastal zones and face difficult decisions to balance economic development and protection of coastal ecosystems in these delicate environments. The rapid risk diagnostic highlights opportunities for the six cities to respond to these challenges and start increasing resilience. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 32 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 32: Example of a simple city risk profile in Balikpapan Source: Balikpapan City Risk Profile, World Bank (2013) d. Building resilience with risk sensitive land-use zoning and infrastructure planning Existing RTRWs form Detailed spatial and infrastructure planning processes allow cities to incorporate risk the basis for risk- mitigation measures into existing practices. For instance, existing RTRWs that have sensitive RDTRs recognized disaster and climate risks, such as those in Balikpapan, Denpasar and Yogyakarta, can be further translated into risk-sensitive RDTRs. Balikpapan is Balikpapan, under the current RTRW, is implementing several flooding countermeasures, implementing several including river normalization, drainage system development and maintenance, as well as flooding construction of a small dam. Public investment has been allocated towards resilience countermeasures activities, such as river basin area revitalization, protected forest conservation and drainage system improvements, both at the city and at the residential area level. Similarly, the city is implementing zoning control measures, including strict construction permit issuance for landslide-prone areas. These efforts could be consolidated into risk-sensitive land-use zoning as the basis for investment planning in infrastructure, and the rehabilitation and protection of green space and waterways. Denpasar could In Denpasar, risk-based infrastructure investment planning options include accelerating the establish development implementation of comprehensive flood and tsunami disaster mitigation by establishing controls in flood- and development controls in flood- and tsunami-prone areas. With many new hotel tsunami-prone areas developments occurring in the Sanur area, for example, the city government could use building and site permits as an instrument to re-arrange the coastal layout to open more evacuation access to the beach areas as part of its “Tourist-safe Denpasar” campaign. Yogyakarta has Yogyakarta, which is confronted with serious hazards from flooding, lahars, landslides and planned for evacuation earthquakes, has planned for evacuation sites in its RTRW. These have been identified sites in its RTRW throughout the city, including green spaces, city squares and sport centers. Planning measures have restricted development in some zones along the river, with substantial investments in flood, lahar, landslide prevention and control infrastructure. Upgrading informal settlement along the river could be further used as a way to open a buffer zone to mitigate flood impact, but also with multiple functions to develop “kampung walk” tourism potentially benefitting the lower income population from the city’s large tourism market. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 33 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly e. Building resilience with urban infrastructure upgrading Opportunities to build Reclamation has become a popular choice for development in coastal cities. While often resilience arise with ambitious, such major urban projects present opportunities to build resilience via urban major urban projects infrastructure upgrading, for example where urban upgrading can be incorporated into land reclamation, as in Makassar and Balikpapan. Makassar can use its Makassar has a significant number of slum areas including those located in riverbank and plan to incorporate tidal prone regions. The city has an ambitious plan for coastal reclamation along the Losari slum upgrading and beach, revitalization of the Tallo river tributaries and reclamation along its coastal delta. This adopt water-sensitive grand plan can account for resilience by incorporating slum upgrading and adopting the development concept of water sensitive development, to ensure that adequate drainage and sanitation systems are developed and risks are mitigated from coastal as well as inland flooding. In Balikpapan a new Balikpapan has six major slum villages containing floating wooden structures along the south coastal road can be and west coastal zones. These settlements are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including used to upgrade slum rising sea levels. As the city is also working on a plan for coastal road development, which areas includes reclamation, this project could also be used as the basis to carry out upgrading of nearby slum neighborhoods, drainage improvements for flood mitigation, and revitalization of water retention systems for both water supply and flood control. f. Building resilience with ecosystem restoration and management Cities with rivers and Both Makassar and Palembang demonstrate the importance of building resilience with wetlands are more improved ecosystem management and restoration, particularly relevant in Indonesian cities dependent on the with rivers and wetlands. In Makassar, urban ecosystem management is needed to revitalize ecosystem and can mangrove forests, as well as conserving forests and water catchment areas in the upstream consider restoration regions. The aim is to reduce sedimentation in estuaries, particularly the Tallo estuary, which and conservation as a has increased due to land conversion and resulting landslides. Ecosystem management may development approach offer a more effective land subsidence mitigation approach through the planting of vegetation in recharge areas that would increase water reserve capacity along the coastal areas in order to prevent seawater intrusion. In Palembang, flooding from the Musi river and its tributaries is a chronic issue. In 2012, the city enacted a local regulation to control development of the wetland. This regulation classifies areas for strict conservation and regions available for farming, fishery, plantation, and settlement. Reclamation will provide alternative retention pools and/or water storage to preserve the environmental balance and maintain water quality and flood prevention. This effort could be further expanded to use an ecosystem approach in land and real estate development along the Musi river. g. Now is the time for Indonesia to prioritize urban disaster and climate risk resilience It is time to invest in As most Indonesian cities are about to embark on a process of detailed spatial planning in risk-sensitive detailed the next 1-2 years, there is an opportunity to seize the momentum to build urban resilience. spatial plans Applying rapid risk diagnostics have proven useful as a means to start the conversation on risks and risk mitigation options with city leaders and stakeholders and in identifying the most significant disaster and climate risks. The diagnostics have also identified practical risk mitigation alternatives that cities can undertake through adjustments to on-going urban investment programs. Granular scale maps on However, to carry out this process more systematically, granular scale geospatial data on city city assets, population assets, population centers, natural hazards and vulnerabilities are urgently needed for centers, natural accurate diagnostics. Also, systems need to be put in place to ensure that rapid diagnostics hazards and translate into formal zoning requirements in the RDTR spatial plans to control and manage vulnerabilities are spatial development, as well as major urban investment and upgrading projects. These needed should include planning for ecosystem restoration to promote improved urban resilience in Indonesian cities and reduced exposure to disaster and climate hazards. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 34 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly C. Indonesia 2015 and beyond: A selective look 1. Indonesia: Avoiding the trap Indonesia’s Within the next two decades Indonesia aspires to generate prosperity, avoid a middle- development goals income trap and leave no one behind as it tries to catch up with high-income economies. over the next 20 years These are ambitious goals. Realizing them requires sustained high growth and job creation, are very ambitious, but as well as reduced inequality. Can Indonesia achieve them? The World Bank’s forthcoming they can be achieved Development Policy Review, titled “Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap” argues that the country with the right growth has the potential to rise and become more prosperous and equitable. But the risk of strategy and a few high “floating in the middle” is real. Which pathway the economy will take depends on: (i) the priority structural adoption of a growth strategy that unleashes the productivity potential of the economy; and reforms (ii) consistent implementation of a few, long-standing, high-priority structural reforms to boost growth and share prosperity more widely. Indonesia is fortunate to have options in financing these reforms without threatening its long-term fiscal outlook. The difficulties lie in getting the reforms implemented in a complex, and decentralized, institutional framework. But Indonesia cannot afford to not try hard. The stakes—both in terms of the payoff from reform and the cost of no reform—are high. “Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap” aims to contribute to the crucial debate over Indonesia’s economic development policy priorities and challenges, and this Section provides a brief summary of its key findings. a. The next decade brings risks and opportunities Four domestic and Over the next decade, four domestic and external factors—which good policies can turn external factors will into powerful drivers of growth, or “pull factors”—will shape economic prospects. These shape economic factors are Indonesia’s demographics and ongoing urbanization trend, and the international prospects outlook for commodity prices and developments in China. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 35 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Indonesia has the Indonesia is blessed with abundant labor. Between 2013 and 2020, the population of potential to benefit working age will increase by 14.8 million, reaching 189 million from the current 174 million. from a demographic Today, 50 percent of the population is under the age of 30. This increasingly educated and “dividend” thanks to IT-savvy youth is an asset that can be used to boost overall productivity and economic its young population... growth. With the right policies in place to utilize this labor, Indonesia is poised to benefit from a demographic “dividend”, before the population starts to age in 2025-30. …and from its pace of Urbanization is increasing at an annual pace of about 4 percent, making Indonesia one of the urbanization, one of most rapidly urbanizing countries in the world. By 2025, 68 percent of the population is the most rapid in the projected to live in urban areas against 52 percent in 2012 (according to UN projections). As world income rises and existing large metropolitan areas such as Jakarta and Surabaya become saturated, the demand for consumer durables, shopping space and housing will increase significantly in smaller cities. Connecting these cities and their inhabitants to rural areas, metropolitan areas and the global economy will be essential to attracting firms and achieving shared prosperity. Empirical evidence shows that urbanization supports growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia only in the presence of adequate infrastructure (Lewis, 2012). Figure 33: Demography provides a boost: Indonesia’s Figure 34: …but the boost from commodities, an important dependency ratio will likely fall until 2025-30… growth engine of nominal incomes, is now fading… (contribution to nominal GDP growth yoy, percent) (contribution to nominal GDP growth yoy, percent) 90 Total dependency ratio 30 80 70 25 Overall 60 economy 20 50 Percentage aged 15-64 40 15 30 Children:14 and 10 Commodity 20 sectors 5 10 Elderly above 64 0 0 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Source: Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision Weaker international The softening of global commodity prices since 2011 poses challenges for Indonesia in the commodity prices may short term, as seen in their impact on Indonesia’s trade balance, but it offers an opportunity be a blessing in to enhance the quality and diversity of investments in Indonesia. Over the past decade, high disguise for some commodity prices tilted investment incentives in favor of the resource sector and non- segments of the tradable sectors (e.g., the real estate sector) against manufacturing and other tradable sectors. manufacturing The share of manufacturing in total investment dropped to 12 percent in 2002-11 against sector… almost one-fifth in 1990-96. Going forward, lower commodity prices should increase the relative profitability and attractiveness of (non-commodity-related) manufacturing and can help Indonesia develop its industrial base. Commodity price falls over the past two years, through their impact on the current account, are now translating into depreciation in the real effective exchange rate, helping manufacturing exports and competitiveness. With reforms to reduce the constraints faced by manufacturing firms (see below), weaker commodity prices may therefore be a blessing in disguise. …while rapidly rising China’s rapidly rising wages present Indonesia with a potential second chance in regaining a wages in China give comparative advantage in labor-intensive export sectors. China’s nominal wages have grown Indonesia a potential by an annual average of almost 15 percent since 2001 which, together with slowing “second chance” in productivity growth in low-skilled sectors in recent years, has seen Chinese unit labor costs M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 36 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly manufacturing exports grow by almost 70 percent since 2005 (Economist Intelligence Unit, 2012). Meanwhile, ongoing Yuan appreciation, with the real effective exchange rate up 30 percent since 2005, is further eroding China’s competitiveness in manufactured goods. These pressures, combined with slower overall economic growth as China rebalances, are likely to prompt investors to look beyond China’s coastal areas. These dynamics offer ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, an opportunity to attract more investments in their manufacturing industries. But there are two key However, while none of these potentially favorable factors will be captured without reforms, risks there are two risks: a risk of a slowdown in long-term growth and a risk of growth not becoming inclusive enough. First, without International experience shows that growth slowdowns can occur at all levels of income structural reforms, (Bulman et al, 2012). Recent evidence suggests that their frequency is higher for middle- there is a material risk income countries (IMF, 2013). As an example, Brazil grew fast in the 1960s and 1970s. Then of a growth slowdown from 1981, when its GDP per capita stood at USD 3,939 (slightly above Indonesia’s GDP in Indonesia per capita today), it embarked in a prolonged relative growth slowdown, until 2004.34 Similarly, Mexico experienced more than 20 years of a prolonged growth slowdown past 1981 when its GDP per capita was USD 6,965. These experiences suggest that Indonesia cannot take its solid growth performance for granted. In fact, this growth was driven by a very favorable external environment: the commodity boom experienced in 2003-11 combined with low global interest rates since 2009 supported corporate revenues, household incomes and government revenues, and led to a significant jump in domestic demand.35 Going forward, Indonesia can no longer count on any growth stimulus from external factors. As mentioned above, since 2011, commodity prices have softened significantly. With the normalization of US growth, the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy—which led to low global interest rates—is being gradually unwound, increasing financing costs, with knock-on implications for investment. As these external support factors fade, without structural reforms, the material risk of a growth slowdown exists for Indonesia. Second, there is also a Even if Indonesia manages to avoid a prolonged growth slowdown, growth may not be risk that growth may inclusive, i.e. the benefits and opportunities are not accessible across the population. From not be equitable 1999 to 2012, poverty was cut by half: from 24 percent to 12 percent. However, in 2012, enough; so inclusive about 65 million people hovered between the national poverty line and 50 percent above it. growth needs to be Along with the poor, this group remains highly vulnerable to food price increases, health fostered and not taken shocks and natural disasters. One reason for the persistent vulnerability is that the poorest as granted households experienced a small increase in real incomes compared with richer ones. In 2003-10, real growth of per capita consumption was 1.3 percent per annum for the poorest 40 percent of households, compared with 3.5 percent for the next 40 percent, and 5.9 percent for the top 20 percent (Figure 35). Moreover, an increasing amount of consumption inequality in Indonesia is explained by differences amongst people in access to opportunities. In 2002, 27 percent of child consumption inequality was due to differences in their gender, the gender and employment status of the head of their household, their parents’ education, and their region and location of birth. By 2012, this reached 37 percent. Thus going forward, equitable growth needs to be fostered and not taken as granted. 34 A commodity-rich country similar to Indonesia, Brazil benefitted significantly from a commodity boom in 2004-11. This favorable external factor explains parts of the strong growth recovery in that country in that period. 35 More specifically, the direct rise in the value of resource assets (palm oil, rubber, coal, gas, etc.), as well as the value of other assets purchased on the back of commodity incomes or wealth (real estate properties, land and securities), significantly encouraged consumption and investment against these assets and generated multiplier effects in the economy. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 37 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Figure 35: Poorer households experienced lower than average growth in their real consumption over 2003-10 8 12 percent 40 percent 80 percent Annualized growth ( percent) 6 Average Growth for all Households 4 2 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 Household Per Capita Consumption percentile Note. A Growth Incidence Curve (GIC) shows the annual growth rate in consumption between two periods for each percentile of the distribution. Thus, the GIC indicates how the average consumption growth for all households is distributed across the distribution. Source: Susenas and World Bank calculations b. What strategy is needed for strong and inclusive growth in Indonesia? Indonesia can only Given the opportunities and risks discussed above, and Indonesia’s aspiration of shared become richer by prosperity, what would be the country’s best growth strategy going forward? Quite simply, a improving labor country can increase its income per capita by a combination of improving labor productivity productivity, which is or increasing the share of the population employed.36 Because the latter increases very slowly also the only way to over time, cross-country evidence shows that 92 percent of the differences in GDP per accommodate higher capita across nations (a proxy of prosperity) are explained by differences in aggregate labor wages productivity (IMF, 2013). Thus, for Indonesia’s GDP per capita to converge rapidly to high- income economies, boosting economic growth through increasing labor productivity will be crucial. A productivity-driven growth strategy is also important for Indonesia to reduce vulnerability and enhance firms’ competitiveness. Indeed, the political pressure for increasing wages is unlikely to weaken in Indonesia. In this context, the only way to accommodate wage increases without jeopardizing competitiveness is to increase labor productivity. At over 50 percent of Moving to a productivity-driven growth model will be a significant switch for Indonesia. the workforce, too Over past decades, growth has in large part been supported by capital accumulation and many Indonesian are employment growth with limited contribution of total factor productivity (TFP). Van Der in low productivity jobs Eng (2008)37 finds that TFP explained only 33 percent of growth in 2000-07 and played no in agriculture and low- role in growth prior to 2000. This is to be contrasted with China and the Republic of Korea, end services where TFP explained more than 50 percent of growth during that period. The aggregate productivity level of Indonesia—measured by average value-added per worker—is also low by regional standards. For instance, Malaysia’s average productivity per worker is more than five times Indonesia’s. Average labor productivity in Indonesia is also lower than in Thailand, the Philippines and China. Differences in productivity reflect the structure of economies. In Indonesia, more than 50 percent of workers are in two low productivity sectors, agriculture and the low-end services subsector (retail trade, hotels & restaurants) and this weighs heavily on average productivity. 36 This proceeds the decomposition of GDP per capita as follows: ∗ . is the aggregate labor productivity and the proportion of the total population employed. 37 Van der Eng, Pierre, 2008, “Capital Formation and Capital Stock in Indonesia, 1950-2007” Working Papers in Trade and Development No.24. Canberra: School of Economics, ANU College of Business and Economics, Australian National University M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 38 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly To increase aggregate Aggregate labor productivity growth has two sources. First, productivity growth within labor productivity economic sectors, e.g., higher yields in agriculture thanks to the use of higher-yielding seeds. Indonesia needs to This type of “within sector” productivity growth typically results from greater use of capital improve both by workers (more modern machines and equipment), improvements in the quality of labor productivity “within (better trained workers), adoption of new technology and competition within sectors that sectors” and facilitate lead to a larger number of efficient firms. Second, aggregate productivity growth can be the movement of achieved by the movement of labor (and capital or other inputs to production) from low to resources from low to higher productivity growth sectors (a “structural-transformation effect”, McMillan and high productivity Rodrik, 2011). For instance, when workers leave agriculture and work in higher productivity sectors sectors (e.g., as a result of investment in agriculture that increases yields), the aggregate productivity of the economy increases. Policies that typically facilitate such movements are improvements in transport infrastructure and labor market flexibility. The next phase of The good news is that Table 13: Labor productivity differences across sectors remain Indonesia’s structural there is large scope for significant transformation should boosting Indonesia’s (sector labor productivity compared with labor productivity in agriculture) expand job creation in productivity through a Sector 2000-03 2005-08 2009-12 manufacturing and faster structural Agriculture 1.0 1.0 1.0 high-end services and transformation. Table 13 Low-end services 2.4 2.5 2.2 the movement of labor shows the gap in labor Manufacturing 5.7 5.8 5.0 industries into these higher productivity levels Transport and productivity sectors between agriculture and communication 2.8 3.5 5.5 other sectors of the Financial services 21.5 20.5 14.6 economy, measured as the Mining and quarrying 46.8 26.7 18.0 ratio of sectoral Source: BPS and World Bank staff calculations. productivity to agriculture. Moving a worker from agriculture to the low-end services subsectors (wholesale and retail trade and personal, social services and construction) leads to a doubling of productivity on average. This movement has largely occurred over the past decade and has been the key driver of poverty reduction. Seventeen of the 20 million jobs created in 2001-11 occurred in services, mostly in the low-end segment. The next phase of Indonesia’s structural transformation should seek to expand the movement of labor and job creation in the manufacturing sector and high-end services.38 Despite the sharp decline in manufacturing productivity growth in the past decade, the average productivity of workers in manufacturing industries remains fully five times higher than that in agriculture.39 Job creation in manufacturing and high-end services is clearly a recipe for increasing productivity and reducing vulnerability in Indonesia. c. Policy priorities to support productivity growth: first, infrastructure There are three priority “Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap” identifies three priority areas to foster productivity-driven areas: infrastructure, growth: (i) closing the infrastructure gap; (ii) closing the skills gap; and (iii) improving the skills and improving functioning of product, labor and capital markets. These are long-standing, well-known the functioning of priorities, but progress in addressing them has been uneven. Decentralized decision-making markets since the early 2000s has complicated and slowed implementation, especially in infrastructure development and labor market functioning (such as minimum wage setting). Yet, there are a few key policies that can make a big difference under each of these priority areas. 38 The skills requirement for entering the high-end services sector is however higher, implying that the scope for job creation in manufacturing is much larger given the average levels of skills in the labor force. 39 In the past decade, labor productivity growth in agriculture increased (driven by rubber, palm oil, coffee and tea) and dropped to almost zero in manufacturing. The sharpest decline in labor productivity growth occurred however in mining and quarrying. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 39 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Improving the quality Improving the quality of public spending will be critical for infrastructure development and of public spending will infrastructure service delivery in Indonesia.40 Total infrastructure investment—that is, be critical for investment by the central government, sub-national governments, state-owned enterprises addressing Indonesia’s and the private sector—has remained at only 3 percent to 4 percent of GDP over the past infrastructure needs decade (Figure 36). This is far below the rates of above 7 percent of GDP before the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 10 percent and 7.5 percent spent by China and India, respectively. Scaling up infrastructure spending, both on new investments but also, importantly, on operation and maintenance, rests on improving the quality of public spending at the central and sub-national government levels. Fuel subsidy reform At the central government level, large fuel subsidy spending (2.6 percent of GDP and 21 would greatly help percent of the central government budget after transfers to the regions and interest towards better quality payments) is almost double the spending on infrastructure, which stands at 1 percent of spending GDP. Improving the quality of spending can be greatly supported by fuel subsidy reform. A more-than-doubling of government-wide infrastructure spending (from 2.5 percent of GDP) can come from reducing energy subsidies. Any such reallocation would need to be accompanied by further improvements in the areas of budget planning and execution so as to improve absorptive capacity and ensure the quality of infrastructure investment management and implementation. Sub-national Sub-national governments spend more on infrastructure than the central government (1.5 governments need to percent of GDP versus 1 percent of GDP). But sub-national governments could spend be incentivized to much more to improve roads, water and sanitation and health infrastructure (both in terms spend less on of new investments and maintenance) if their budgets were not tied up by excessive personnel and more on spending on personnel and if they could raise more revenues themselves. Over 40 percent of infrastructure sub-national government spending is on personnel and about 90 percent of their budgets come from the central government (fiscal transfers). Improving the fiscal transfer system to incentivize greater reallocation of spending to infrastructure requires moving to some form of performance-based transfers and increasing the share of the transfers tied to spending on sectors or areas of national priorities.41 For municipalities that meet fiscal prudence and fiduciary risk criteria, alternative means of financing, such as PPPs, municipal bonds, and intermediary financing can be promoted. Four other For increased spending to be effective in reducing the infrastructure gap, however, the complementary following complementary reforms will be needed: (i) stronger coordination within the central reforms will also be government and across levels of government; (ii) a reform of the government and state- needed to reduce the owned utility companies’ processes to enhance project selection and planning; (iii) an infrastructure gap effective implementation of the new land law; and (iv) strong partnership with private domestic and foreign investors to bridge the funding gap. The payoffs from The growth payoff of greater investment in infrastructure is large. Under-investment in improving infrastructure has been a substantial drag on Indonesia’s growth over the past decade.42 The infrastructure consequent slow growth in the infrastructure capital stock relative to the pace of economic investment in terms of and urbanization growth has contributed to serious capacity gaps, congestion problems and 40 Infrastructure development is not only about money. Land acquisition, coordination between different levels of government and project selection process are all equally important constraints. The Government is aware of this and is working on each of them. For instance a new land bill is under discussion at the Parliament. This land bill is expected to facilitate access to land for public purposes. 41 Fiscal transfers to sub-national governments are dominated by a “block grant” component (DAU) relative to transfers tied to special purposes. Block grant transfers are untied, facilitating excessive subnational personnel expenditure, leaving little space for transfers that could be tied to front-line service provider levels. In 2012, the DAU made up almost 60 percent of central government transfers to subnational governments. The specific purpose grant (DAK), allocated to certain regions with the aim of funding special activities of the region in accordance with national priorities, only cover 6 percent of these transfers and is highly fragmented (covers too many sectors). 42 If Indonesia’s real infrastructure capital stock had growth by 5 percent annually over 2001-11 versus the actual growth rate of 3 percent it is estimated that annual real GDP growth would have been 0.5 percentage points higher. See the October 2013 IEQ for further details. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 40 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly higher growth and poor logistics performance, undermining productivity growth. Firm surveys show that better access to problems with transportation are among the worst business constraints for urban services are significant manufacturing firms while rural producers find themselves unable to compete with imports in urban areas. Thus, clearly, connective infrastructure development can help leverage agglomeration economies in urban areas and unleash the growth and productivity potential of agriculture, rural non-farm industries and urban manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, because one-quarter of urban populations and more than half of rural dwellers have poor access to transport services, improving infrastructure is key in enhancing overall economic and social well-being in Indonesia. d. Policy priorities to support productivity growth: second, skills Indonesia needs to Enhancing the quality of education and the functioning of training centers will be crucial in improve the quality of closing Indonesia’s skills gap. Today, two-thirds of firms complain that finding suitable education and the employees for professional and managerial positions is either “difficult” or “very difficult”; functioning of training and almost 70 percent of employers in manufacturing report finding it “very difficult” to fill centers if it is to close skilled professional-level positions (engineers). There are two types of mismatch. Some the skills gap. sectors report insufficient graduates as the reason (for example, in textiles), whereas other sectors complain about the skills of existing graduates (for example, in rubber and plastics). Meanwhile, firms in Indonesia are much less likely to offer training to their employees than in other countries in the region. Most existing training-providers are concentrated in low- value-added areas (such as beauty salon and spa skills and basic computer skills). Finally, in terms of the level of core academic skills, Indonesia compares unfavorably with other middle-income economies and East Asian neighbors in learning assessments such as PISA. For instance, 15-year-old students in Indonesia have learning levels far below their peers in Vietnam, even though per-capita income is higher. Indonesia has already Public policy has so far focused on access to education and enrollment. Thanks to strong made significant government commitment Indonesia will probably boast one of the largest numbers of progress in improving college-goers in the world in years to come.43 Over the past five years, the labor force with access to education tertiary and secondary levels of education has increased by more than 1 million and more and enrollment rates than 2 million annually, respectively. If recent trends in enrollment continue, the number of Indonesians with tertiary education can more than double in the next decade.44 Now it needs to focus Thus, going forward the focus should be on equipping graduates and workers with the right on a three-pronged technical and employer-valued behavioral skills (discipline, reliability, teamwork and strategy to improve the leadership) to support/enable large investments in key sectors such as manufacturing. This skills of the labor force requires a three-pronged reform strategy. First, improve the quality of basic education to build a stronger base of cognitive skills necessary to acquire the higher-level skills that will be needed by the workforce. A single key measure that could support this is strengthening the quality assurance system to ensure that quality assessments are followed-up and education institutions have the incentive to implement corrective actions. But it is essential to However, even if the educational system could be perfected instantly, the first graduates find short- and would only join the workforce in about 10-20 years’ time. It is therefore essential to find medium-term solutions short- and medium-term solutions for the current skills constraints: the second and third to the skills gap prongs of the strategy are thus improving the relevance of feeders into the labor market (technical and vocational education, and tertiary education) and upgrading the skills of the existing workforce (reform of the training system). Improving the relevance of vocational and tertiary education calls for (i) supplying students and graduates with more information on labor market opportunities, and (ii) making the system more responsive to the market’s 43 This commitment is seen in the Constitutional mandate that 20 percent of the budget should be allocated to education. 44 The Government’s objective is to provide universal access to senior secondary education through a compulsory 12 years of education and to double enrollment in higher education by 2020. The share of individuals with tertiary education in the labor force stood at 8 percent in 2012. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 41 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly needs. The training system, on the other hand, would serve the economy better if more training institutions were created to deliver relevant training and specific skills in higher value-added, strategic sectors (such as textiles, food products and other key manufacturing branches). Developing skills will The growth payoff of skills development is large, if difficult to quantify. Because more than help Indonesia meet 60 percent of Indonesian firms report that skills are a constraint, relaxing this constraint will demand from the help them expand and become more competitive. This could increase aggregate productivity expanding middle- and growth through “within sector” productivity growth (e.g. if workers in manufacturing class and also acquire more skills) and/or labor movement from low-end services to manufacturing (see withstand competition above). Developing skills should also help Indonesia to leverage the opportunities coming from increasing middle-class demand and withstand competition from ASEAN partners. Without the right skill sets among those entering the workforce, imports may remain more competitive than domestic production in satisfying the demand for higher quality products and services from Indonesia’s growing middle-class. Figure 36: More and higher quality spending is needed to Figure 37: Indonesia faces the challenge of improving its close the infrastructure gap… labor force skills mix (infrastructure spending as share of GDP, percent) (education composition of labor force, percent) 10 Primary or less Secondary Tertiary 8 Average (1995-97) Average (2008-11) Korea Rep 6 Singapore 4 Phillippines 2 Malaysia 0 Thailand Indonesia Cambodia 0 50 100 Source: World Bank Note: Cambodia (2011), India (2010), Indonesia (2008), Malaysia (2010), Philippines (2008), Singapore (2011), Thailand (2011), Korea Republic (2007) Source: World Bank Education Statistics e. Policy priorities to support productivity growth: third, markets If Indonesia is to Boosting investment and the flow of talent in manufacturing and other Indonesia’s high achieve a rapid productivity sectors—crucial for fast structural transformation—requires improving the structural functioning of product, labor, capital and land markets.45 Even as Indonesia implements transformation it will reforms to facilitate investment and licensing in some sectors, the laws and regulations need to improve the governing business conduct in many sectors have, in recent years, sent mixed signals to way product, labor, investors and increased uncertainty for businesses. For instance, a number of sector-specific capital and land laws and measures announced recently are either inconsistent with previous laws or create markets function confusion about the direction of reforms (e.g. conflicts between the horticulture law versus the investment law). In the mining sector, irrespective of how the new regulation banning exports of mineral ores is ultimately applied, the repeated policy shifts have increased uncertainty (as highlighted in the preceding section). The new industry and trade laws provide ministerial authorities with new, sweeping authority to intervene in the market, increasing uncertainty and the cost of doing business. 45The land market is also very important for public and private investment. A comprehensive land law, currently being discussed by the Parliament, is expected to address some of the key issues that have constrained investments in recent years. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 42 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Strengthened policy The upside in the investment climate area is that some of the uncertainty created by recent formation should help laws and regulations can be addressed by strengthening the quality of the policy formation to improve the process for economic policies and regulations. Some countries have done this by investment climate empowering ministries or government agencies to play a “policy integrator” function. A strengthened and integrated policy formation process can help ensure that market competition is fostered and anti-competitive practices are limited, and that the policy environment supports inward FDI and frontier technology knowledge flows, and the potential benefits they can bring. A strengthened policy formation should also better address genuine concerns of Indonesians that the public interest be protected, and should enable the Government to push back against more narrow rent-seeking activities and self-centered business interests. This is all the more important given that Indonesian law courts, local governments and politicians poorly in terms of the corruption perception index (for example, in 2012, Transparency International ranked Indonesia 100 out of 183 countries reviewed). Revising the labor law, Usefully complementing efforts to clarify rules for business conduct would be measures to to make it more ameliorate the functioning of labor and capital markets. Indonesia’s labor market presents an flexible and inclusive, insider-outsider feature, with a minority of workers formally protected and a large majority would greatly support of workers obliged to work in the informal sector. This divide reflects levels of employment Indonesia’s structural protection similar to several European countries (e.g. high level of severance pay) and transformation relatively high statutory minimum wages. In addition, the minimum-wage-setting process has become uncertain in recent years although the recent introduction of a new formula indexed on CPI inflation and productivity can help address this.46 Although the labor legislation does not apply to most workers (as there are many possible exclusions for employers and the Government’s enforcement ability is limited), it impedes productivity growth and structural transformation. For instance, workers’ entry into fully formal sectors is restricted because employers in these sectors account for the high potential cost of dismissal when making hiring decisions. As a result, most workers operate informally or semi-informally, work on short-term contracts and are not trained as a long-term asset for firms. Thus, workers leaving for instance farm or rural non-farm activities are stuck into slightly higher but still low-productivity sectors and do not gain significant social mobility. A revision of the labor law, in view of making it more flexible and inclusive, would greatly support Indonesia’s structural transformation objectives. Such revision requires an agreement between employers, workers and the Government. Similarly, the adoption of a new minimum-wage-setting formula based on inflation and productivity by these parties would support competitiveness and jobs. Meanwhile, As regards the capital markets, there is ample evidence that enterprises in Indonesia are Indonesia’s capital credit constrained (IMF, 2012)47. Firms, to a large extent, tend to rely more on retained markets are thin, earnings than on bank credit for the expansion of their activities, which in turn means that impeding the provision current cash flow becomes the major factor in investment decisions. This has significant of financing to new implications for the types of investments taking place in the economy, particularly in investments innovative firms that usually have negative cash flows in the early stages of operation, and need bank or non-bank financing to grow and create high-quality jobs. The credit constraint faced by firms reflects the lack of depth of Indonesia’s financial market. The financial sector is dominated by banks (78 percent of assets) and its claims to the private sector stand at only 35 percent compared with close to 100 percent on average 46 The minimum wage-setting process is complex. Negotiations and final agreements take place at the province and sectoral level (and often at the district and subsector level), making communication and compliance with new formula-based adjustments more difficult. More generally, ensuring the compliance of firms and employers to minimum wage regulations is not easy, and requires monitoring and coordination at the central level, between the Ministry of Manpower and relevant ministries for effective implementation, as well as between central and local governments and relevant actors (District Governors and Wage Councils). 47 IMF, Indonesia: Selected Issues, “What determines investment in Indonesia”, September 2012 M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 43 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly for Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Capital markets are thin with corporate domestic debt securities (outstanding) accounting for less than 5 percent of GDP, similar to Thailand and the Philippines but much lower than the 45 percent for Malaysia. Pension fund assets are also relatively low compared with the size of the economy (5 percent compared with 10 percent-15 percent in the Philippines and Thailand and 40 percent in Malaysia). Improving the legal A part of the shallowness of Indonesia’s financial market will be difficult to overcome system would facilitate because it reflects deep risk aversion behavior. For example, following the 1997-98 financial the operation of crisis, both savers and investors moved into the shorter end of the maturity spectrum. markets and Insurance, investment funds, and corporate bonds issuance, for example, have grown in intermediaries recent years but still do not contribute significantly to the pool of domestic long-term savings and investments.48 Public policy can however nudge the system towards greater financial depth. For instance, the development of the corporate bond market appears particularly constrained by strict investment requirements, high underwriting costs and weaknesses in the execution regime. Besides this, international experience emphasizes the role of building a credible legal system that allows for the effective enforcement of contracts and property rights and provides investor protection. Financial contracts are defined and made more or less effective by legal rights and enforcement mechanisms. From this perspective, improving Indonesia’s legal system would facilitate the operations of markets and intermediaries. This relates to improving the quality of the business environment more broadly, as financial sector actors, just as investors themselves, need a minimum level of certainty when making long-term financing decisions. f. What policy priorities to ensure that prosperity is shared more widely? Policies need to ensure Indonesia’s public policy challenge is not only to support policies that generate prosperity. that prosperity is Another challenge facing policymakers is that of sharing prosperity more widely. Indeed, a shared more widely large number of households classified as non-poor in terms of income/ consumption are poor in many other dimensions, including access to decent housing, transportation, water, sanitation, health and education. At the same time, despite Indonesia’s success in reducing poverty, the slowing pace of progress in recent years and high vulnerability remain a concern. Finally, Indonesia’s hard-fought poverty reduction outcomes are constantly under threat, due to the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides and forest fires. The last part of “Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap” discusses three key priority areas to address these challenges. Access to key services For the poor, the vulnerable and some in the middle-class, higher income and prosperity will needs to be improved not translate fully into enhanced living standards if access to key services is not improved. The hopes placed on decentralization reforms to improve public services have yet to materialize and decisive reforms will be necessary to improve service delivery. Priority reform options include: (i) clarifying missions, refocusing the bureaucracy to be accountable for results; (ii) providing more resources to front-line services and less on personnel and administration, which requires amending the central government transfer system to increase the proportion of local governments’ budgets tied to specific sectors and performance and; (iii) strengthening of community-driven programs and demand-side accountability through stronger partnership with agents of change at the village level. Strengthening social Indonesia’s social security system is set to undergo significant transformations. Indeed, protection will require universal social insurance is legally mandated for health (by 2014) and employment (by 2015) strong leadership for under the 2004 National Social Security Law and the 2011 Social Security Administrators effective Law. Whether the desired results will be obtained will crucially depend on the quality of implementation implementation. To be effective and sustainable, the system will require appropriate benefit levels, sound fiscal risk management, sound institutional development and management, and non-contributory coverage of the poor and vulnerable, while at the same time collecting 48A significant share of high-wealth savers have actually chosen to intermediate their resources offshore. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 44 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly contributions from those who can afford to pay. But this transformative reform requires above all strong leadership for effective implementation due to the large number of stakeholders with diverging interests and the significant potential impact on the state budget, the labor market and the macro economy. The Government Alongside social insurance, strengthening existing social assistance programs is the other should continue its essential component of a comprehensive social protection framework. Indonesia needs to efforts to eliminate reform current programs, fill in existing gaps, and integrate the programs into a system. fragmentation and Again, leadership and coordination will be crucial. Central government spending is currently duplication across distributed among roughly 12 ministries, 22 programs, and 87 activities. In order to ensure programs services are delivered appropriately, the Government should continue its efforts to eliminate fragmentation and duplication across programs. The oversight and coordination under National Team for the Acceleration of Poverty Reduction (Tim Nasional Percepatan Penanggulangan Kemiskinan, TNP2K) has played a crucial role in devising the poverty assistance strategy, integrating poverty programs and coordinating implementation with various ministries. Going forward, it will be important to keep a unified oversight and coordination model for effective implementation. Safeguarding Indonesia is situated in one of the world’s most active disaster zones, prone to earthquakes, reductions in poverty tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides and forest fires. Over decades of rapid requires management urbanization, non-compliance with building codes and zoning regulations, and the of disaster risks… occupation of dedicated drainage “open” spaces, have not only made Indonesian cities more vulnerable to natural disasters but also created new hazards such as seawater inundation in low-lying coastal areas and flooding. Urbanization-induced land subsidence poses a bigger threat to Jakarta than climate change associated with rising sea levels. Safeguarding hard- fought poverty reduction in Indonesia calls for continuously enhancing the management of disaster risks and further building resilience. …and implementation Three priority reform options could be adopted in order to enhance resilience to disasters. of policy reforms to These include (i) a national program on hazardous micro-zoning providing detailed boost resilience to instruments for incorporating resilience into site design and construction standards; (ii) disasters financing framework for both urban, housing and property development that incentivizes investment with built-in resilience linked to disaster insurance; and (iii) a national program on urban upgrading and ecosystem rehabilitation to increase the resilience of existing settlement and urban infrastructure. g. The stakes are high: the payoffs to reform and the costs of no reform If Indonesia can grow The costs of no reform are as high as the potential rewards for well implemented reforms. by 6.5 percent annually First, the population of working age is projected to increase significantly in the next 10 years it could create 12.4 before peaking as a share of the total population around 2025. Most of the additional 14.8 million new jobs by million individuals that will join the population of working age by 2020 will seek jobs and 2020 absorbing them will require fast economic growth. Based on the sensitivity of employment to growth for the period 1990-2012, if Indonesia grows by 6.5 percent annually the country would create 12.4 million new jobs by 2020. This compares favorably with the employment creation if the country grows by only 5.0 percent per annum: 10.2 more million jobs by 2020. Thus, the difference between growing by 5.0 percent and 6.5 percent is a significant 2.2 million jobs over the eight years, which is significant. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 45 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Serious reforms are Looking longer term, faster Figure 38: Income per capita reached by when required if Indonesia is economic growth (than 5 demographic dividend ended, versus Indonesia (2030) to boost its growth rate percent) is also required if (GDP per capita, thousands of constant 2012 US Dollars) and deliver on the Indonesia is to climb the GDP per capita Assuming 10 challenge of climbing income ladder and position 30 (constant 2012 percent real USD) 24 GDP growth up the income ladder itself well to become a high- 25 2013-2030 to high-income status income economy within the 20 Assuming 20 17 in the coming decades next two decades. For 14 6 percent real GDP Indonesia to reach high- 15 12 growth income status by 2030—i.e. 10 9 a per-capita income of 5 USD 12,000—it will need to 1982 1970 2000 1991 2030 2030 grow by some 9 percent 0 annually over the next 16 years.49 Short of this exceptionally high rate of growth, growing at least above the current 5 percent- Note: dates indicate estimated end-point of demographic dividend 6 percent “trend” growth period would be required to Source: World Bank position the country well to escape a middle-income trap. The income per capita of Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong all were above USD 12,000 when the population of these countries started to age (Figure 38). For Indonesia, it will take really fast growth to realize that. Fortunately, the country can do it, with serious reforms. 49 Using constant 2013 US dollars. M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 46 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure 1: Quarterly and annual GDP growth Appendix Figure 2: Contributions to GDP expenditures (real GDP growth, percent) (contribution to real GDP growth yoy, percent) 4 8.0 Private cons. Gov cons. Investment Year-on-year (RHS) Net Exports Discrepancy GDP 8 3 6.0 QoQ seas. 4 adjust (LHS) Average (LHS)* 2 4.0 0 1 2.0 0 0.0 -4 Dec-06 Sep-08 Jun-10 Mar-12 Dec-13 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Note: *Average QoQ growth between Q4 2006 – Q4 2013 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Appendix Figure 3: Contributions to GDP production Appendix Figure 4: Motor cycle and motor vehicle sales (contribution to real GDP growth yoy, percent) (seasonally-adjusted sales growth yoy, percent) Agriculture Mining and constr. 80 Manufacturing Comm & transport Trade, hotel & rest Others (inc. services) Motor vehicle sales 8 60 GDP 40 Cement sales 20 4 0 -20 Motor cycle sales 0 -40 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC Appendix Figure 5: Consumer indicators Appendix Figure 6: Industrial production indicators (index) (growth yoy, percent) 180 Percent Percent 40 54 BI Retail sales index Cement sales, sa (LHS) 160 53 30 BI Consumer Survey Manufacturing PMI (RHS) 140 Index 52 20 51 120 10 50 100 49 0 80 48 Manufacturing production index (LHS) 60 -10 47 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Source: BI Source: BPS; Markit HSBC Purchasing Manager’s Index M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 47 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 7: Trade volumes Appendix Figure 8: Balance of payments (growth yoy, percent) (USD billion) 20 Capital and financial Current account Errors and omissions Overall BoP inflows 15 15 Imports 10 10 Exports 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Source: BPS Source: BI Appendix Figure 9: Exports of goods Appendix Figure 10: Imports of goods (3 month moving average, USD billion) (3 month moving average, USD billion) 20 20 Total exports Total imports 16 16 12 12 Intermediate (ex. oil & gas) 8 Manufacturing 8 Agriculture & forestry Oil & gas 4 4 Capital Consumer Mining & minerals Oil & gas 0 0 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Source: BPS Source: BPS Appendix Figure 11: Reserves and capital inflows Appendix Figure 12: Inflation and monetary policy (USD billion) (month-on-month and year-on-year growth, percent) 3.5 12.0 150 5.0 Headline inflation, YoY (RHS) International Reserves (LHS) BI policy rate (RHS) 125 2.5 2.5 Core inflation, YoY (RHS) 8.0 100 0.0 1.5 4.0 Headline inflation MoM (LHS) 75 Non-resident portfolio -2.5 inflows, (RHS): Equities 0.5 0.0 50 SUN -5.0 SBI 25 -7.5 -0.5 -4.0 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Source: BI; CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 48 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI Appendix Figure 14: Inflation comparison across countries (percentage point contributions to monthly growth) (year-on-year, February 2014) 3.6 Core Administered Volatile Headline Korea* USA* 3.0 Japan * 2.4 Thailand 1.8 Singapore * Malaysia * 1.2 Philippines * 0.6 China 0.0 Indonesia India * -0.6 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations *January is the latest available month Source: National statistical agencies via CEIC; BPS Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice prices Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate (wholesale price, in IDR per kg) (percent) 10,000 60 20 Medium quality: Unemployment rate, LHS IR64-II (domestic) Formal employment rate, LHS Thai 100% B 2nd grade (international) 7,500 45 Poverty rate RHS 15 30 10 5,000 Low quality: IR64 III (domestic); Thai A1 Super (international) 15 5 2,500 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Solid: domestic wholesale rice prices 0 0 Dashed: international Thai rice (cif) prices, in Rupiah 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Cipinang wholesale rice market; FAO; World Bank Source: BPS Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices Appendix Figure 18: Selected currencies against USD (daily index January 4 2010=100) (monthly index February 2010=100) 250 75 South Africa SET-Thailand 200 100 Indonesia 150 JCI-Indonesia Brazil SGX-Singapore 125 India 100 BSE-India Appreciation Shanghai-China Turkey 50 150 Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 49 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Figure 19: 5-year local currency govt. bond yields Appendix Figure 20: Sovereign USD bond EMBIG spread (daily, percent) (daily, basis points) 10 475 60 Indonesia spreads less overall EMBIG index spread (RHS) 8 400 0 Indonesia 6 325 -60 4 Philippines Thailand 250 -120 Malaysia 2 175 -180 Indonesia EMBIG bond spread (LHS) United States 0 100 -240 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Source: CEIC Source: JP Morgan; World Bank staff calculations Appendix Figure 21: Commercial bank credit growth Appendix Figure 22: Banking sector indicators (quarterly, percent) (monthly, percent) 40 40 100 10 Banking credit growth (LHS) Bank credit to GDP Loan deposit ratio (LHS) (RHS) 80 8 30 30 60 6 20 20 Non-performing 40 loans (RHS) Return on assets 4 ratio (RHS) 10 10 20 2 Capital adequacy ratio (LHS) 0 0 0 0 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI Appendix Figure 23: Government debt Appendix Figure 24: External debt (percent of GDP; USD billion) (percent of GDP; USD billion) 60 Domestic debt, RHS 300 60 Private external debt, RHS 300 External debt, RHS Public external debt, RHS Total debt to GDP, LHS Total external debt to GDP, LHS 40 200 40 200 20 100 20 100 0 0 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: MoF; BI; World Bank staff calculations Source: BI; World Bank staff calculations M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 50 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Table 1: Budget outcomes and projections (IDR trillion) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Preliminary Approved Outcome Outcome Outcome Outcome outcome budget A. State revenue and grants 849 995 1,211 1,338 1,430 1,667 1. Tax revenue 620 723 874 981 1,072 1,280 2. Non-tax revenue 227 269 331 352 353 385 B. Expenditure 937 1,042 1,295 1,491 1,639 1,842 1. Central government 629 697 884 1,011 1,126 1,250 2. Transfers to the regions 309 345 411 481 513 593 C. Primary balance 5 42 9 -53 -97 -54 D. SURPLUS / DEFICIT -89 -47 -84 -153 -210 -175 (percent of GDP) -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 Source: MoF Appendix Table 2: Balance of payments (USD billion) 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Balance of payments 11.9 -0.2 16.1 2.8 -0.8 -3.2 -6.6 -2.5 -2.6 4.4 Percent of GDP 1.4 0.0 1.9 1.3 -0.4 -1.5 -3.0 -1.1 -1.2 2.2 Current account 1.7 -24.4 -28.5 -8.1 -5.3 -7.8 -5.9 -10.0 -8.5 -4.0 Percent of GDP 0.2 -2.8 -3.3 -3.7 -2.4 -3.6 -2.7 -4.4 -4.0 -2.0 Trade balance 24.2 -1.7 -5.3 -2.0 0.8 -2.4 -0.9 -3.9 -2.5 2.0 Net income & current transfers -22.5 -22.7 -23.2 -6.2 -6.1 -5.4 -5.0 -6.1 -6.0 -6.0 Capital & Financial Account 13.6 24.9 22.7 5.0 5.8 12.0 -0.4 8.3 5.6 9.2 Percent of GDP 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.6 5.5 -0.2 3.7 2.6 4.6 Direct investment 11.5 13.7 14.8 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 5.7 1.6 Portfolio investment 3.8 9.2 9.8 3.9 2.5 0.2 2.8 3.4 1.9 1.8 Other investment -1.8 1.9 -1.9 -2.5 -1.2 7.7 -6.9 1.2 -2.0 5.9 Errors & omissions -3.4 -0.3 -1.6 0.3 0.3 -1.0 -0.3 -0.8 0.3 -0.8 Foreign reserves* 110.1 112.8 99.4 106.5 110.2 112.8 104.8 98.1 95.7 99.4                                  Note: * Reserves at end-period Source: BI; BPS M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 51 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Table 3: Indonesia’s historical macroeconomic indicators at a glance 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 1 National Accounts (% change)    Real GDP 9.0 8.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.8    Real investment 25.3 22.6 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.3 9.7 4.7    Real consumption 23.2 21.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.2    Private 23.9 22.7 3.7 0.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.3    Government 18.8 14.7 14.2 6.6 0.3 3.2 1.3 4.9    Real exports, GNFS 22.5 18.0 30.6 16.6 15.3 13.6 2.0 5.3    Real imports, GNFS 30.2 29.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 13.3 6.7 1.2    Investment (% GDP) 28 28 20 24 32 32 33 32    Nominal GDP (USD billion) 114 202 165 286 709 846 877 868    GDP per capita (USD) 636 1035 804 1,300 2,984 3,466 3,548 3,468 2 Central Government budget (% GDP)    Revenue and grant 18.8 15.2 20.8 17.8 15.5 16.3 16.2 15.3    Non-tax revenue 1.0 4.8 9.0 5.3 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.8    Tax revenue 17.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 11.3 11.8 11.9 11.5    Expenditure 11.8 13.9 22.4 18.4 16.2 17.4 18.1 17.5    Consumption .. 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2    Capital .. 4.6 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8    Interest .. 1.4 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2    Subsidies .. .. 6.3 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 3.8    Budget balance 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.2    Government debt 41.9 32.3 97.9 47.6 26.0 24.3 24.0 25.7    o/w external government debt 41.9 32.3 51.4 22.3 9.5 8.3 7.4 7.8 Total external debt (including private    61.0 61.5 87.1 47.7 28.2 27.5 29.7 35.4 sector) 3 Balance of Payments (% GDP)    Overall balance of payments .. .. .. 0.2 4.3 1.4 0.0 -0.8    Current account balance -2.6 3.2 4.8 0.1 0.7 0.2 -2.8 -3.3    Exports GNFS 25.6 26.2 42.8 35.0 24.7 26.2 24.1 23.7    Imports GNFS 24.0 26.9 33.9 32.0 21.6 23.3 24.3 24.3    Trade balance 1.6 -0.8 8.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 -0.2 -0.6    Financial account balance .. .. .. 0.0 3.7 1.6 2.8 2.6    Net direct investment 1.0 2.2 -2.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.7    Gross official reserves (USD billion) 8.7 14.9 29.4 34.7 96.2 110.1 112.8 99.4 3 Monetary (% change)    GDP deflator1 7.7 9.9 20.4 14.3 8.3 8.1 4.4 4.4    Bank Indonesia interest key rate (%) .. .. .. 9.1 6.5 6.6 5.8 6.5    Domestic credit .. .. .. 28.7 17.5 24.4 24.2 22.1 Nominal exchange rate (average,    IDR/USD)4 1,843 2,249 8,422 9,705 9,090 8,770 9,387 10,461 1 Prices (% change)    Consumer price Index (eop) 9.9 9.0 9.4 17.1 7.0 3.8 4.3 8.4    Consumer price Index (average) 7.7 9.4 3.7 10.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 7.0    Poverty basket inflation (average) .. .. .. 10.8 8.7 8.2 6.5 7.5 Indonesia crude oil price (USD per    barrel)5 .. 17 28 53 79 112 113 107 Source: 1 BPS and World Bank staff calculation, 2 MoF and World Bank staff calculation (for 1995 is FY 1995/1996, for 2000 covers 9 months), 3 Bank Indonesia, 4 IMF, 5 CEIC M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 52 Investment in flux Indonesia Economic Quarterly Appendix Table 4: Indonesia’s development indicators at a glance 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Demographics Population (million) 184 199 213 227 241 244 247 Population growth rate (%) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 31 36 42 46 50 51 51 Dependency ratio (% of working-age population) 67 61 55 54 53 53 52 2 Labor Force Labor force, total (million) 75 84 98 106 117 117 118 Male 46 54 60 68 72 72 73 Female 29 31 38 38 45 45 45 Agriculture share of employment (%) 55 43 45 44 38 36 35 Industry share of employment (%) 14 19 17 19 19 21 22 Services share of employment (%) 31 38 37 37 42 44 43 Unemployment, total (% of labor force) 2.5 7.0 8.1 11.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 3 Poverty and Income Distribution Median household consumption (IDR 000) .. .. 104 211 374 421 446 National poverty line (IDR 000) .. .. 73 129 212 234 249 Population below national poverty line (million) .. .. 38 35 31 30 29 Poverty (% of population below national poverty line) .. .. 19 16 13 12 12 Urban (% of population below urban poverty line) .. .. 14.6 11.7 9.9 9.2 8.8 Rural (% of population below rural poverty line) .. .. 22.4 20.0 16.6 15.7 15.1 Male-headed households .. .. 15.5 13.3 11.0 10.2 9.5 Female-headed households .. .. 12.6 12.8 9.5 9.7 8.8 Gini index .. .. 0.30 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.41 Percentage share of consumption: lowest 20% .. .. 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 Percentage share of consumption: highest 20% .. .. 38.6 41.4 43.5 46.5 46.7 Public expenditure on social security & welfare (% of 4 .. .. .. 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 GDP) 1 Health and Nutrition Physicians (per 1,000 people) 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.29 .. 0.20 Child malnutrition weight for age (% of children under 5) .. 27.4 24.8 24.4 18.6 .. .. Under five mortality rate (per 1000 children under 5 year) 98 67 52 42 34 32 31.0 Neonatal mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 27 26 22 19 16 15.5 15.0 Infant mortality (per 1000 live births) 67 51 41 34 28 26.7 25.8 Maternal mortality ratio (estimate, per 100,000 live births) 600 420 340 270 220 .. .. Skilled birth attendance (% of total births) 36 .. 66 .. 82 .. .. Measles vaccination (% of children under 2 year) .. 63 74 77 75 74.0 80.0 Total health expenditure (% of GDP) .. 1.8 77.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 .. Public health expenditure (% of GDP) .. 0.7 89.0 89.0 1.0 0.9 .. 3 Education Primary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 92 92 92 93 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 48 48 49 49 Secondary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 52 61 60 60 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 50 50 50 49 Tertiary net enrollment rate, (%) .. .. .. 9 16 14 15 Female (% of total net enrolment) .. .. .. 55 53 50 54 Adult literacy rate (%) .. .. .. 91 91 91 92 4 Public spending on education (% of GDP) .. .. .. 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 4 Public spending on education (% of spending) .. .. .. 14.5 19.7 19.8 18.9 1 Water and Sanitation Access to an improved water source (% of population) 70 74 78 81 84 84 .. Urban (% of urban population) 91 91 91 92 93 93 .. Rural (% of rural population) 61 65 68 71 75 76 .. Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 32 38 44 53 58 59 .. Urban (% of urban population) 56 60 64 70 73 73 .. Rural (% of rural population) 21 26 30 38 43 44 .. 1 Others Disaster risk reduction progress score (1-5 scale; 5=best) .. .. .. .. .. 3.3 .. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament 5 .. .. 8 11 18 18.2 18.6 (%) Source: 1 World Development Indicators; 2 BPS (Sakernas); 3 BPS (Susenas) and World Bank; 4 MoF and World Bank staff calculation, only includes spending on Raskin, Jamkesmas, BLT, BSM, PKH and actuals (except 2012 from revised budget); 5 Inter-Parliamentary Union M a r ch 2 0 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 53 Compilation of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) FY 2014 Reports – Indonesian language versions • Menanggapi berbagai tekanan, Juli 2013 • Penyesuaian berlanjut, Oktober 2013 • Pertumbuhan melambat; risiko tinggi, Desember 2013 • Investasi yang tak menentu, Maret 2014 Juli 2013 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan PERKEMBANGAN TRIWULANAN PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Juli 2013 Kata Pengantar Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia (Indonesia Economic Quarterly/IEQ) mempunyai dua tujuan. Pertama, untuk menyajikan perkembangan utama perekonomian Indonesia dalam tiga bulan terakhir, dan menempatkan dalam konteks jangka panjang dan global. Berdasarkan perkembangan ini, serta perubahan kebijakan dalam periode tersebut, laporan ini menyediakan perkembangan terkini secara rutin tentang prospek perekonomian dan kesejahteraan sosial Indonesia. Kedua, laporan IEQ ini memberikan penilaian mendalam terhadap isu-isu ekonomi dan kebijakan tertentu, dan analisis terhadap tantangan pembangunan jangka menengah Indonesia. Laporan ini ditujukan untuk khalayak luas termasuk pembuat kebijakan, pemimpin bisnis, pelaku pasar keuangan, serta komunitas analis dan profesional yang terlibat dan mengikuti perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia. IEQ merupakan laporan Bank Dunia di Jakarta dan disusun oleh tim kebijakan makro dan fiskal, unit Pengentasan Kemiskinan dan Manajemen Ekonomi (Poverty Reduction and Economic Management/PREM), Bank Dunia Jakarta di bawah bimbingan Jim Brumby sebagai Sector Manager dan Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop sebagai Economic Adviser dan Lead Economist dan Ashley Taylor sebagai Senior Economist. Tim utama penyusun laporan ini dengan tanggung jawab di bagian A (perkembangan ekonomi terkini), pengeditan dan produksi adalah Gomez Agou, Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Brendan Coates, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Shakira Jones, Alex Sienaert, Ashley Taylor dan Violeta Vulovic. Dukungan administrasi diberikan oleh Titi Ananto dan Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Diseminasi dilakukan oleh Dini Sari Djalal, Farhana Asnap, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan, Nugroho, Marcellinus Winata dan Randy Salim. Edisi ini juga mencakup kontribusi dari Timothy Brown, Werner Kornexl dan Yue Man Lee (Bagian A.7, diskusi dampak asap), (Edgar Janz, Matthew Wai-Poi dan Vivi Alatas (Bagian B.1, kebijakan bantuan sosial), Mitchell Wiener and Iene Muliati (Bagian B.2, Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional), Claudia Rokx and Roger Shrimpton (Bagian C.1 Nutrisi), Erwin Ariadharma, Sheheryar Banuri, Zahid Hasnain, Richard Hooper, Matthew Kearney, Philip Keefer, Brendan Murphy, Staffan Synnerstrom and Maria Tambunan (Bagian C.2 reformasi birokrasi). Masukkan utama juga diterima dari Ekaterine Vashakmadze (perkembangan internasional terkini), Djauhari Sitorus, Neni Lestari dan The Fei Ming (sektor perbankan, kredit dan korporasi), Mark Ahern (reformasi birokrasi), Darren Dorkin, Megha Kapoor, Eko Setyo Pambudi, Leslie Elder dan Puti Marzoeki (nutrisi). Soekarno Wirokartono juga memberikan tambahan masukan yang penting. Dokumen ini diterjemahkan ke dalam Bahasa Indonesia oleh Nicolas Novianto dan diedit oleh Magda Adriani, Arsianti, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Erwin Ariadharma, Indra Budi Sumantoro and Talitha Fauzia. Laporan ini disusun oleh para staf International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Bank Dunia, dengan dukungan pendanaan dari Pemerintah Australia - AusAID melalui program Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA). Temuan-temuan, interpretasi dan kesimpulan-kesimpulan yang dinyatakan di dalam laporan ini tidak mencerminkan pandangan AusAID dan Pemerintah Australia, para Direktur Pelaksana Bank Dunia atau pemerintah yang diwakilinya. Bank Dunia tidak menjamin ketepatan data-data yang termuat dalam laporan ini. Batas-batas, warna, denominasi dan informasi-informasi lain yang digambarkan pada setiap peta di dalam laporan ini tidak mencerminkan pendapat Bank Dunia mengenai status hukum dari wilayah atau dukungan atau penerimaan dari batas-batas tersebut. Foto sampul depan dan bagian dalam diambil oleh Josh Estey dan merupakan Hak Cipta Bank Dunia. Semua Hak Cipta dilindungi. Untuk mendapatkan lebih banyak analisa Bank Dunia terhadap ekonomi Indonesia: Untuk informasi mengenai Bank Dunia serta kegiatannya di Indonesia, silakan berkunjung ke website ini www.worldbank.org/id Untuk mendapatkan publikasi ini melalui e-mail, silakan menghubungi madriani@worldbank.org. Untuk pertanyaan dan saran berkaitan dengan publikasi ini, silakan menghubungi asienaert@worldbank.org. Daftar isi KATA PENGANTAR III   DAFTAR ISI II   RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF: MENANGGAPI BERBAGAI TEKANAN VII   A. PERKEMBANGAN EKONOMI DAN FISKAL TERKINI 1  1.  Aset-aset pasar negara berkembang turun tajam dalam beberapa bulan terakhir 1  2.  APBN-P: kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi dan pelebaran proyeksi defisit 4  3.  Pasar keuangan, valuta, dan kredit Indonesia: kuartal yang bergejolak 9  4.  Prospek ekonomi Indonesia mengalami penurunan 11  5.  Inflasi akan naik untuk sementara mengikuti kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi 17  6.  Defisit neraca berjalan berlanjut walau pertumbuhan impor telah melambat 21  7.  Risiko terhadap outlook tetap tinggi dari dalam dan luar negeri 28  B. BEBERAPA PERKEMBANGAN TERKINI PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA 31  1.  Mencermati paket kompensasi subsidi BBM 31  a.  Program-program jangka pendek untuk melindungi rumah tangga yang miskin dan rentan ................. 32  b.  Program-program jangka panjang untuk mendorong rumah tangga miskin dan rentan ......................... 36  2.  Tantangan Indonesia: pelaksanan Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional yang baru 40  a.  Menempatkan perubahan ke dalam konteks: dimana posisi Indonesia sekarang .................................... 40  b.  Pertimbangan cakupan, biaya dan keberlanjutan fiskal ............................................................................ 42  c.  Pertimbangan administrasi, tata kelola dan kapasitas ............................................................................... 43  d.  Komunikasi menjadi kunci sebagai bagian dari rangkaian proses penerapan yang panjang................... 45  e.  Kesimpulan: perjalanan panjang menuju cakupan jaminan sosial yang menyeluruh............................... 45  C. INDONESIA TAHUN 2014 DAN SELANJUTNYA: TINJAUAN PILIHAN 46  1.  Indonesia: Menghadapi Beban Ganda Malnutrisi 46  a.  Sifat dan akibat serius dari Beban Ganda Malnutrisi ................................................................................. 47  b.  Beban Ganda Malnutrisi adalah masalah yang berat dan mendesak di Indonesia ................................... 48  c.  Memahami penyebab BGM di Indonesia .................................................................................................. 50  d.  Mengatasi BGM di Indonesia ..................................................................................................................... 52  2.  Reformasi birokrasi di Indonesia: kemajuan dan tantangan 53  a.  Dampak reformasi birokrasi ....................................................................................................................... 53  b.  Keberlanjutan reformasi birokrasi .............................................................................................................. 54  c.  Restrukturisasi dan right-sizing di dalam Pemerintah Indonesia ............................................................. 55  d.  Menyederhanakan lembaga pemerintah .................................................................................................... 56  e.  Pengangkatan pegawai untuk struktur baru .............................................................................................. 57  f.  Kendala dan pilihan reformasi bagi right-sizing ........................................................................................ 57  LAMPIRAN: INDIKATOR GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA 59  J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA ii DAFTAR GRAFIK Gambar 1: Pasar-pasar negara berkembang (EM) mencatat kuartal 2 yang lemah, dengan kinerja saham di bawah kinerja saham AS… .......................................................................... 2  Gambar 2: …bersamaan dengan penyimpangan momentum ekonomi yang signifikan lintas ekonomi beberapa negara utama ................................................................................ 2  Gambar 3: Saham dan obligasi pemerintah Indonesia telah melemah tajam sejak bulan Mei… ... 3  Gambar 4: …di tengah penjualan besar-besaran obligasi dan saham luar negeri ........................... 3  Gambar 5: Dalam beberapa tahun kedepan, penghematan fiskal cukup besar, dibandingkan belanja BBM bersubsidi tanpa reformasi.................................................................... 5  Gambar 6: Rupiah telah terapresiasi secara nominal dan berdasarkan pembobotan perdagangan selama tahun 2013 ...................................................................................................... 10  Gambar 7: Pinjaman investasi menurun sejalan dengan perlambatan laju pertumbuhan investasi riil ............................................................................................................................... 10  Gambar 8: Harga rumah tinggal terus meningkat walau pertumbuhan kredit perumahan menurun… .................................................................................................................. 11   Gambar 9: …dengan pesatnya pertumbuhan harga dan kuatnya permintaan properti komersial di Jabodetabek ............................................................................................................ 11  Gambar 10: Pertumbuhan PDB riil terus melemah, dengan kontribusi dari investasi semakin mengecil ..................................................................................................................... 12  Gambar 11: PDB nominal masih tetap lemah, sejalan dengan lemahnya pertumbuhan dalam deflator PDB .............................................................................................................. 12  Gambar 12: Moderasi investasi umumnya didorong oleh penurunan tajam dalam permesinan dan peralatan asing dan transportasi ........................................................................ 12  Gambar 13: Produksi sektor pertambangan masih lemah .............................................................. 14  Gambar 14: Berlanjutnya pelemahan impor barang modal menunjukkan pelemahan lanjutan dalam pertumbuhan investasi tetap… ...................................................................... 15  Gambar 15: …sementara indikator ekonomi berfrekuensi tinggi menunjukkan berlanjutnya moderasi pertumbuhan.............................................................................................. 15  Gambar 16: Proyeksi inflasi IHK, dengan dan tanpa reformasi BBM bersubsidi ......................... 17  Gambar 17: Inflasi mencatat penurunan pada beberapa bulan terakhir… ................................... 19  Gambar 18: …dengan turunnya harga sejumlah bahan pangan pokok ........................................ 19  Gambar 19: Neraca pembayaran kembali ke defisit pada kuartal pertama.................................... 21  Gambar 20: Surplus perdagangan non-migas naik pada kuartal 1/2013, sebelum kembali ke defisit kecil pada April… ........................................................................................... 22  Gambar 21: …sementara defisit perdagangan migas yang besar telah tercatat sejak pertengahan tahun 2012................................................................................................................... 22  Gambar 22: Barang modal memimpin pelambatan impor yang luas… ......................................... 23  Gambar 23: …sementara penerimaan ekspor Indonesia masih tertekan....................................... 23  Gambar 24: Ekspor Indonesia lebih rendah dibanding negara tetangganya yang sebanding ...... 24  Gambar 25: Ekspor manufaktur mendatar, di tengah tanda-tanda pelemahan pertumbuhan ekspor manufaktur di Asia......................................................................................... 24  Gambar 26: Batu bara berkualitas rendah merupakan 20 persen dari ekspor batu bara Indonesia dan dapat terpengaruh oleh pelarangan di Cina....................................................... 24  Gambar 27: Metriks solvabilitas hutang telah meningkat, namun demikian juga sejumlah indikator risiko likuiditas........................................................................................... 27  Gambar 28: Hutang swasta dari luar negeri mencatat distribusi yang merata pada seluruh sektor ekonomi...................................................................................................................... 27  Gambar 29: Cadangan devisa Indonesia cukup besar demikian juga paparan risiko luar negerinya .................................................................................................................... 29  Gambar 30: Penghematan dapat mendukung sejumlah program .................................................. 32  Gambar 31: Tingkat kemiskinan akan terus turun dengan BLSM ................................................. 35  Gambar 32: Program-program akan memperluas cakupan rumah tangga miskin dan rentan secara signifikan… .................................................................................................... 36  Gambar 33: …dan tingkat bantuan juga meningkat....................................................................... 36  Gambar 34: Bertumbuhnya proporsi penduduk Indonesia berusia paruh baya yang mengalami kelebihan berat badan ............................................................................................... 48   J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA iv Gambar 35: Hipertensi adalah masalah yang signifikan pada penduduk dewasa Indonesia… ... 50  Gambar 36: …dan sebagian besar penduduk Indonesia tidak berolahraga cukup ....................... 50  DAFTAR GRAFIK LAMPIRAN Lampiran Gambar 1: Pertumbuhan PDB triwulanan dan tahunan ................................................ 59  Lampiran Gambar 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB pengeluaran ........................................................ 59  Lampiran Gambar 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB produksi .............................................................. 59  Lampiran Gambar 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil .............................................................. 59  Lampiran Gambar 5: Indikator konsumen...................................................................................... 59  Lampiran Gambar 6: Indikator kegiatan industri ........................................................................... 59  Lampiran Gambar 7: Aliran perdagangan riil ................................................................................. 60  Lampiran Gambar 8: Neraca pembayaran ...................................................................................... 60  Lampiran Gambar 9: Ekspor barang ............................................................................................... 60  Lampiran Gambar 10: Impor barang ............................................................................................... 60  Lampiran Gambar 11: Cadangan devisa dan aliran masuk portfolio modal asing......................... 60  Lampiran Gambar 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter .................................................................... 60  Lampiran Gambar 13: Rincian bulanan tingkat harga konsumen ................................................. 61  Lampiran Gambar 14: perbandingan tingkat inflasi antar negara tetangga .................................. 61  Lampiran Gambar 15: Harga beras kulakan di pasar domestik dan internasional ........................ 61  Lampiran Gambar 16: Tingkat kemiskinan dan pengangguran .................................................... 61  Lampiran Gambar 17: Indeks saham regional ................................................................................ 61  Lampiran Gambar 18: Indeks spot dolar AS dan rupiah ................................................................. 61  Lampiran Gambar 19: Yield obligasi pemerintah 5 tahunan mata uang lokal ............................... 62  Lampiran Gambar 20: spread EMBI obligasi pemerintah dengan obligasi dolar AS ................... 62  Lampiran Gambar 21: Tingkat kredit bank umum ......................................................................... 62  Lampiran Gambar 22: Indikator keuangan sektor perbankan ....................................................... 62  Lampiran Gambar 23: Utang pemerintah ....................................................................................... 62  Lampiran Gambar 24: Utang luar negeri ........................................................................................ 62  DAFTAR TABEL Tabel 1: Menurut skenario dasar (baseline), pertumbuhan Indonesia diproyeksikan 5,9 persen untuk tahun 2013 ......................................................................................................... ix  Tabel 2: Harga komoditas masih di bawah tekanan ........................................................................ 3  Tabel 3: Penghematan fiskal dari reformasi subsidi BBM tahun 2013 hanyalah kecil, setelah dikurangi paket kompensasi yang cukup besar ......................................................... 5  Tabel 4: Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit fiskal sebesar 2,1 persen, sedikit lebih rendah dari asumsi APBN-P ........................................................................................................... 6  Tabel 5: Realisasi APBN untuk Jan – Mei telah meningkat dibanding tahun-tahun yang lalu namun masih menantang ............................................................................................ 7  Tabel 6: Menurut skenario dasar (baseline) proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB adalah 5,9 persen untuk 2013, dan meningkat menjadi 6,2 persen untuk 2014 ................................................ 16  Tabel 7: Kompensasi menjangkau 15,5 juta rumah tangga ............................................................ 32  Tabel 8: Keadaan BGM di Indonesia adalah salah satu yang terburuk di ASEAN ....................... 49  Tabel 9: Terdapat bukti survei akan kinerja SDM yang lebih baik antar lembaga-lembaga yang turut serta dalam reformasi birokrasi ........................................................................ 54  Tabel 10: Kendala terpilih terhadap restrukturisasi dan perampingan dan pilihan reformasi tingkat tinggi.............................................................................................................. 58  DAFTAR TABEL LAMPIRAN Lampiran Tabel 1: Realisasi dan anggaran belanja pemerintah .................................................... 63  Lampiran Tabel 2: Neraca pembayaran .......................................................................................... 63  Lampiran Tabel 3: Sekilas tentang perkembangan indikator ekonomi makro Indonesia ............ 64  Lampiran Tabel 4: Sekilas tentang perkembangan indikator sosial Indonesia ............................. 65  J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA v DAFTAR KOTAK Kotak 1: Usulan pelarangan impor batu bara berkualitas rendah oleh Cina membawa risiko terhadap ekspor batu bara Indonesia ........................................................................ 24  Kotak 2: Tingkat hutang eksternal tetap rendah namun risiko likuiditas telah meningkat .......... 26  J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA vi Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Ringkasan Eksekutif: Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Menanggapi Kuartal kedua tahun 2013 merupakan kuartal yang penting, dimana perekonomian, peningkatan tekanan kebijakan-kebijakan, dan pasar keuangan Indonesia mengalami penyesuaian terhadap dan berbagai peristiwa tekanan-tekanan yang telah meningkat selama beberapa kuartal terakhir dan terhadap terbaru, kuartal kedua perubahan lingkungan perekonomian global. Setelah mencatat pertumbuhan yang sedikit tahun 2013 mencatat lebih lemah dari perkiraan pada kuartal pertama, terdapat tanda-tanda bahwa permintaan perkembangan yang dalam negeri, terutama investasi, terus mengalami perlambatan. Pada sisi fiskal, kombinasi signifikan dalam penurunan pendapatan dan peningkatan belanja subsidi terus menekan keuangan ekonomi, kebijakan, pemerintah. Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBN-P), yang dan pasar keuangan di menyertakan kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi yang telah lama ditunggu-tunggu, bersama Indonesia dengan paket kompensasi yang menyeluruh untuk mengurangi dampak peningkatan harga BBM bagi rakyat miskin, disetujui pada tanggal 17 Juni. Sementara itu, pasar keuangan internasional bereaksi kuat terhadap prospek berakhirnya kebijakan pelonggaran kuantitatif (quantitative easing) di Amerika Serikat (AS) pada kuartal-kuartal berikut, yang mendorong penjualan besar-besaran aset-aset pasar berkembang (emerging market), termasuk Indonesia, yang mendorong Bank Indonesia (BI) untuk meningkatkan suku bunga. Gejolak pasar Ditandai dengan munculnya sinyal-sinyal baru yaitu dengan adanya rencana Bank Sentral AS keuangan internasional akan menghentikan program pembelian obligasinya pada pertengahan tahun 2014, meningkat… menjadikan imbal hasil (yield) surat-surat berharga pemerintah AS mengalami peningkatan secara signifikan pada kuartal bulan Juni, yang berdampak pada pasar-pasar keuangan internasional. Hal ini juga diperkuat dengan adanya tanda-tanda yang semakin meningkat akan divergensi (perbedaan) yang signifikan dalam momentum ekonomi antar negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi, terutama AS dan Jepang, yang menunjukkan perkembangan positif, dan negara-negara berkembang utama yang mencatat laju pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dari perkiraan, terutama China. Faktor-faktor tersebut memicu tajamnya peningkatan penjualan aset-aset negara berkembang dan gejolak pasar, termasuk di Indonesia. Sebagian besar nilai tukar mata uang pasar-pasar berkembang mencatat depresiasi terhadap dolar AS, nilai ekuitas negara berkembang turun sebesar 7,5 persen selama kuartal tersebut (seperti diukur dengan indeks valuta lokal MSCI EM), dan biaya pendanaan pemerintah meningkat dengan signifikan, dengan selisih (spread) obligasi dolar AS, misalnya, meningkat hingga 50 basis poin (seperti diukur oleh indeks JP Morgan EMBIG). J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA v ii Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dan harga aset-aset Pasar aset/saham Indonesia mencatat koreksi yang tajam dalam beberapa minggu terakhir, Indonesia ikut sejalan dengan pasar-pasar berkembang lainnya. Para investor asing berbalik menjadi penjual terpengaruh bersih ekuitas dan obligasi emerging markets menjelang penghujung kuartal, dengan aliran modal keluar sekitar 3,6 miliar dolar AS yang tercatat dari awal bulan Mei hingga akhir bulan Juni. Aliran keluar itu berkontribusi kepada penurunan ekuitas Indonesia sebesar 4 persen pada periode awal Mei hingga akhir kuartal kedua dan peningkatan kurva imbal hasil (yield) surat utang pemerintah secara signifikan, dengan peningkatan yield sebesar 150-220 basis poin sejak awal bulan Mei. Rupiah mencatat depresiasi sebesar 2 persen terhadap dolar AS, walau BI telah melakukan intervensi yang signifikan, yang menyebabkan penurunan cadangan devisa hingga 2 miliar dolar AS pada bulan Mei ke 105 miliar dolar AS. Pemintaan luar negeri Bank Dunia tetap memperkirakan peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang stabil dan diproyeksikan akan bertahap pada kuartal-kuartal berikut. Hal ini mencerminkan proyeksi melambatnya kegiatan meningkat dengan ekonomi pada negara berpenghasilan tinggi, di mana pertumbuhan pada umumnya tetap lambat pada kuartal- lambat namun dengan tren yang menguat, yang terbantu oleh kokohnya pemulihan sektor kuartal berikut swasta AS dan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih kuat di Jepang, sementara kondisi ekonomi di zona Euro masih tetap menantang. Jalur pertumbuhan negara-negara berkembang juga tidak merata, tetapi diperkirakan akan sedikit menguat. Secara keseluruhan, negara-negara mitra dagang Indonesia diproyeksikan akan mencatat pertumbuhan sebesar 3,4 persen pada tahun 2013, sama dengan pertumbuhan tahun 2012, dengan penurunan sebesar 0,3 poin persentase dibanding proyeksi Triwulanan Maret 2013, yang mencerminkan realisasi pertumbuhan kuartal pertama yang dibawah perkiraan, seperti yang terjadi di China. Pertumbuhan para mitra perdagangan utama diproyeksikan akan meningkat menjadi 4,0 persen pada tahun 2014. Prospek pertumbuhan dunia yang masih lambat, dan penguatan dolar AS selama gejolak pasar baru-baru ini, juga terus menekan harga-harga komoditas, dengan harga komoditas ekspor utama Indonesia juga turun selama kuartal tersebut. APBN-P telah APBN-P 2013 dilakukan ditengah perlemahan kondisi pasar keuangan dan tanda-tanda disahkan dan harga perlemahan momentum pertumbuhan diantara beberapa negara berkembang lainnya. BBM bersubsidi telah Beberapa hal penting dari APBN-P yang disetujui oleh DPR termasuk revisi proyeksi belanja dinaikkan subsidi BBM (hingga Rp 200 triliun), dengan harga BBM bersubsidi akan segera dinaikkan, dan paket kompensasi untuk mengurangi dampak harga kenaikan BBM terhadap rumah tangga miskin. Defisit anggaran tahun 2013 telah direvisi naik sebesar 0,7 poin persentase menjadi 2,4 persen dari PDB, karena penurunan proyeksi pendapatan nominal, sejalan dengan antisipasi pertumbuhan PDB yang lebih lemah, dan jumlah belanja yang lebih besar (termasuk untuk subsidi BBM, walau harganya baru saja ditingkatkan). Harga BBM bersubsidi naik secara efektif mulai 22 Juni dengan peningkatan harga premium bersubsidi sebesar 44 persen menjadi Rp 6.500 per liter dan harga solar bersubsidi naik sebesar 22 persen menjadi Rp 5.500 per liter. Walaupun tetap tidak Kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi yang signifikan merupakan sebuah reformasi yang besar, pasti, penghematan dan mengikuti hilangnya kesempatan penyesuaian harga pada tahun 2012. Dalam jangka fiskal dari reformasi pendek reformasi ini membantu membatasi peningkatan defisit APBN tahun 2013. Dalam subsidi BBM jangka panjang, reformasi itu menjadi bagian dari tanggapan yang dibutuhkan dalam kemungkinan cukup penyesuaian yang sedang berlangsung dalam perekonomian Indonesia – meningkatkan besar permintaan terhadap impor energi karena kuatnya pertumbuhan dan penurunan produksi minyak dalam negeri, dan, yang sangat penting, desakan untuk mengarahkan kembali belanja fiskal secara lebih efisien dan merata untuk mendukung agenda pembangunan Indonesia. Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa penghematan fiskal langsung dari peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi akan mencapai Rp 42 triliun pada 2013, dan meningkat menjadi Rp 85 triliun pada tahun 2014, yang merupakan tahun penuh pertama dengan harga yang baru. Walau signifikan, perkiraan penghematan dasar (baseline) ini sangat tidak pasti. Peningkatan harga energi global atau berlanjutnya perlemahan Rupiah dapat meningkatkan selisih antara harga bersubsidi dan harga pasar, sehingga mendorong belanja subsidi menjadi lebih tinggi, walau penyesuaian harga baru saja dilakukan. Dengan demikian, masih terdapat alasan yang kuat untuk terus melanjutkan reformasi ini dengan meningkatkan fleksibilitas harga-harga bersubsidi dan membawa mereka lebih dekat dengan harga pasar. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA v ii i Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Peningkatan inflasi Dampak paket reformasi subsidi BBM terhadap ekonomi makro diperkirakan akan dapat yang bersifat ditangani dan sebagian besar bersifat jangka pendek. Paket reformasi itu diperkirakan hanya sementara merupakan akan membawa dampak negatif jangka pendek yang kecil terhadap pertumbuhan, dengan dampak utama dampak negatif bagi daya beli kaum miskin akan diimbangi secara signifikan dengan paket ekonomi makro dalam kompensasi. Harga BBM yang lebih tinggi pada awalnya akan membawa dampak yang besar jangka pendek terhadap inflasi, dengan meningkatkan rata-rata inflasi tahunan pada tahun 2013 sebesar sekitar 1,8 poin persentase menjadi 7,2 persen, dan memuncak pada kisaran 9 persen tahun- ke-tahun (yoy) menjelang akhir tahun. Penyesuaian itu hanyalah peningkatan harga satu kali saja, yang berarti bahwa dampak inflasi akan berangsur menghilang pada pertengahan tahun 2014, dengan asumsi bahwa perkiraan inflasi jangka panjang tidak terpengaruh dan kebijakan moneter tetap cepat tanggap terhadap tanda-tanda tekanan harga putaran kedua. Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi akan menurunkan defisit neraca berjalan sebesar 0,2 poin persentase dari PDB pada 2013, dibanding bila tanpa reformasi. Dalam jangka menengah, dampak terhadap neraca luar negeri Indonesia akan sulit untuk diukur namun akan tetap positif secara umum, dengan mendorong penggunaan BBM impor secara lebih efisien dan dengan mendorong kepercayaan investor terhadap kebijakan dan posisi fiskal Indonesia. Prospek pertumbuhan Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mengalami perlambatan pada kuartal pertama tahun 2013 telah melemah, sebesar 6,0 persen yoy sedikit lebih lemah dari yang diperkirakan sebelumnya. Prospek mendorong penurunan ekonomi juga melemah, dengan semakin menurunnya harga komoditas dan adanya indikasi proyeksi Bank Dunia perlambatan pertumbuhan investasi yang lebih besar dibanding perkiraan awal. Menurunnya terhadap pertumbuhan kepercayaan konsumen sebagai antisipasi reformasi subsidi BBM, karena kenaikan inflasi PDB 2013, menjadi 5,9 sementara, dan koreksi terhadap pasar saham/aset akhir-akhir ini, juga membebani persen permintaan dalam negeri. Lambatnya pertumbuhan ekspor bersih diperkirakan akan menghilang pada sisa tahun 2013, walau pemulihan ekspor diperkirakan akan lebih lemah dan pertumbuhan impor diperkirakan akan lebih kecil, yang mencerminkan melamhnya prospek investasi. Secara keseluruhan, Bank Dunia telah menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB-nya untuk tahun 2013 menjadi 5,9 persen, dari 6,2 persen seperti yang diproyeksikan pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013. Tabel 1: Menurut skenario dasar (baseline), pertumbuhan Indonesia diproyeksikan 5,9 persen untuk tahun 2013 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Persen perubahan Produk domestik bruto * 6,5 6,2 5,9 6,2 tahunan) (Persen perubahan Indeks harga konsumen * 5,4 4,3 7,2 6,7 tahunan) Defisit neraca berjalan (Persen dari PDB) 0,2 -2,8 -2,7 -2,1 Surplus/defisit anggaran** (Persen dari PDB) -1,1 -1,8 -2,4 -1,4 Pertumbuhan mitra (Persen perubahan 3,6 3,4 3,4 4,0 perdagangan utama tahunan) Catatan: *Rata-rata tahunan **Angka Pemerintah untuk defisit anggaran: 2012 adalah realisasi belum diaudit, 2013 adalah APBN-P dan 2014 dari Nota Keuangan RAPBN 2013 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Prospek pertumbuhan Walaupun dalam perhitungan dasar (base case) Bank Dunia, perekonomian Indonesia akan Indonesia dihadapi sedikit melambat untuk tahun 2013, dan kembali meningkat pada 2014, terdapat risiko yang pada berbagai risiko … tinggi terhadap perlambatan yang lebih besar. Risiko ini dapat didorong oleh perlemahan yang lebih besar permintaan dalam negeri, misalnya karena dampak dari inflasi sementara yang lebih tinggi dari yang diantisipasi karena peningkatan harga BBM, atau penurunan pertumbuhan belanja investasi yang lebih tajam atau lebih lama, dengan gejolak pasar keuangan yang belakangan terjadi mempengaruhi tingkat kepercayaan dan meningkatkan biaya pendanaan. Penurunan harga komoditas yang lebih besar juga merupakan risiko yang signifikan, dengan pentingnya kegiatan yang berkaitan dengan komoditas terhadap pendapatan dalam valuta asing, keuntungan dunia usaha dan kegiatan investasi. Ketidakpastian yang akhir-akhir ini terjadi terhadap perkembangan ekonomi China juga memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap prospek tersebut. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA ix Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …yang menekankan Peristiwa-peristiwa akhir-akhir ini dan prospek base case bagi kuartal-kuartal yang akan datang perlunya kebijakan menunjukkan bahwa penetapan kebijakan Indonesia tampaknya harus menyesuaikan kepada ekonomi makro yang kondisi ekonomi yang sedikit melemah, dan kemungkinan kondisi pembiayaan luar negeri tetap tanggap terhadap yang lebih sulit. Keputusan Bank Indonesia untuk meningkatkan BI Rate dan suku bunga perubahan keadaan… overnight pada awal bulan Juni, dan peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi, merupakan contoh- contoh kebijakan untuk menyesuaikan diri terhadap dinamika keadaan, yang dapat membantu mengamankan stabilitas makro, demi pertumbuhan di masa depan. Mengizinkan kurs tukar Rupiah terus menyesuaikan secara bertahap juga dapat membantu, bila hal ini dapat mendukung posisi eksternal Indonesia. Menjaga pendekatan yang fleksibel, dapat diprediksi dan dikomunikasikan dengan baik dalam pembuatan kebijakan ekonomi makro, dan juga kemajuan yang berkelanjutan di dalam penerapan kebijakan dan perbaikan lingkungan peraturan, akan menjadi kunci bagi Indonesia dalam melalui masa yang penuh dengan tantangan ekonomi dalam dan luar negeri. …dan pentingnya Peningkatan belanja sosial dalam APBN-P, sebagian untuk membantu melindungi keluarga mengarahkan kembali miskin dari dampak kenaikan harga BBM, cukup signifikan, dan rancangan paket kompensasi belanja untuk sosial menunjukkan pengambilan langkah-langkah yang penting menuju sistem jaminan sosial kelompok yang paling yang lebih menyeluruh, terintegrasi dan memiliki penargetan yang baik. Paket kompensasi rentan, dimana paket yang disetujui berjumlah Rp 29 triliun, atau sekitar tiga per empat dari perkiraan kompensasi reformasi penghematan subsidi BBM pada tahun 2013. Paket kompensasi itu terdiri dari dua subsidi BBM komponen utama. Pertama, Program Kompensasi Khusus, yang termasuk Bantuan berkontribusi dalam Langsung Sementara Masyarakat (BLSM) bagi 15,5 juta keluarga termiskin di Indonesia hal ini selama empat bulan, penambahan penerima program Beras untuk Rakyat Miskin (Raskin) dan peningkatan belanja bagi program-program infrastruktur. Kedua, di bawah Program Percepatan dan Perluasan Perlindungan Sosial (P4S), belanja untuk program-program bantuan keuangan bagi pelajar miskin dan Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), mengalami peningkatan. Bukti-bukti dari pengalaman Indonesia dalam pemberian bantuan tunai langsung yang lalu, menunjukkan upaya-upaya tersebut umumnya dapat memberikan bantuan yang memadai, tepat waktu dan efektif bagi perlindungan keluarga yang miskin dan rentan sehingga setidaknya mereka dapat menghadapi pengaruh dari kenaikan harga BBM, dengan asumsi kendala pelaksanaan yang minimum dengan menekankan pada sistem pemantauan dan umpan balik (feedback) dan melaksanakan peningkatan penargetan secara terus-menerus. Dalam jangka yang Perlindungan sosial di Indonesia akan segera diperkuat ketika Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional lebih panjang, (SJSN) mulai di laksanakan pada tahun 2014. SJSN bertujuan untuk memberikan jaminan implementasi SJSN layanan kesehatan, pensiun (manfaat pasti), tabungan hari tua (iuran pasti), jaminan Indonesia yang baru kompensasi kematian dan kecelakaan kerja bagi seluruh penduduk Indonesia. Dengan dapat membawa penerapan yang baik, SJSN akan dapat menurunkan kerentanan, memberi perlindungan perubahan yang besar terhadap kejutan ekonomi, mendorong mobilitas kerja, menurunkan kemiskinan orang lanjut tetapi akan cukup usia, membantu menurunkan ketidakmerataan, dan memobilisasi kelangkaan tabungan. menantang… Keberhasilan sistem baru itu pada akhirnya akan bergantung kepada seberapa baik rancangan, penerapan dan pengelolaanya. Upaya Pemerintah untuk menerapkan suatu sistem jaminan sosial nasional yang dirancang dengan baik, berkelanjutan secara fiskal, kokoh dan menyeluruh akan merupakan tantangan dan membutuhkan serangkaian tindakan besar dari Pemerintah dan badan-badan pengelola yang berkaitan agar dapat berhasil. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA x Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dan akan Program perlindungan kesehatan SJSN akan mulai digelar karena Indonesia menghadapi berlangsung dengan masalah kesehatan dan gizi yang semakin rumit, yang didorong oleh cepatnya laju perubahan lingkungan pembangunan dan urbanisasi. Dengan sepertiga dari anak balita mengalami hambatan sosial, termasuk pertumbuhan, tidak hanya mengganggu kemampuan angkatan kerja masa depan, namun perubahan kebutuhan kecenderungan mereka menderita kelebihan berat badan dan penyakit jantung di kemudian layanan kesehatan hari juga turut meningkat. Faktor-faktor yang mendorong peningkatan berat badan, terutama penduduk Indonesia dengan semakin meningkatnya gaya hidup perkotaan di Indonesia, semakin memperburuk dalam beberapa keadaan, dengan masalah kelebihan gizi yang telah mempengaruhi sebagian besar orang dekadekedepan dewasa. Kecuali diambil tindakan sekarang, untuk menangani masalah kekurangan gizi pada masa kehamilan dan pada anak-anak, dan juga untuk menghadapi masalah kelebihan gizi pada anak-anak yang lebih besar dan orang dewasa, frekuensi terjadinya Penyakit Tidak Menular dapat meningkat secara drastis, dengan dampak buruk terhadap pembangunan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan sosial. Keberlanjutan Untuk meningkatkan layanan dan kapasitas Pemerintah demi keberhasilan penerapan peningkatan efisiensi program-program baru yang ambisius seperti SJSN, dibutuhkan peningkatan lebih lanjut layanan pegawai negeri dalam kinerja birokrasi pegawai negeri sipil Indonesia. Bukti-bukti menunjukkan bahwa sipil merupakan hal proses reformasi birokrasi yang sedang berjalan telah membawa dampak yang positif yang sangat penting terhadap dinamika sumber daya manusia pada lembaga-lembaga yang turut serta, termasuk dalam rangka proses penerimaan dan promosi jabatan pegawai, dan terhadap produktivitas pegawai. pencapaian sasaran Namun masih banyak yang harus dilakukan untuk menjaga peningkatan produktivitas pembangunan sementara memastikan gaji sektor publik berkelanjutan, dan modernisasi sistem pengendalian Indonesia yang dan rancangan organisasi. Perampingan (penyesuaian ukuran) birokrasi pemerintah adalah ambisius masalah yang peka secara politis namun telah menerima prioritas dari Pemerintah. Sejumlah kendala dalam perampingan dari bidang hukum, peraturan perundangan dan kapasitas masih harus diatasi, namun akan dapat diatasi, dan hal tersebut akan menjadi langkah yang penting dalam penciptaan layanan sipil yang lebih efisien dan efektif. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA xi Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia A. Perkembangan Ekonomi dan Fiskal Terkini 1. Aset-aset pasar negara berkembang turun tajam dalam beberapa bulan terakhir Aset-aset emerging Perkembangan pasar keuangan internasional pada kuartal kedua telah memberikan pengingat market turun dengan yang jelas akan kerentanan berkelanjutan di pasar negara berkembang (emerging market), tajam, sebagai termasuk Indonesia, terhadap cepatnya perubahan kondisi keuangan dunia. Prospek penyesuaian terhadap penurunan pelonggaran kuantitatif (quantitative easing) di AS, dan penilaian kembali terhadap informasi baru tentang outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi relatif pada ekonomi-ekonomi berpenghasilan tinggi dan pelonggaran kuantitatif berkembang utama, memicu penjualan besar-besaran aset-aset pasar negara berkembang. (quantitative easing) Imbal hasil surat utang pemerintah AS mulai meningkat dengan tajam pada awal bulan Mei, dan outlook ekonomi dengan surat utang acuan 10-tahun meningkat sebesar 80 basis poin menjadi 2,5 persen pada dunia… akhir bulan Juni. Dari awal bulan Mei hingga akhir Juni, nilai ekuitas pasar berkembang merosot sebesar 7 persen (seperti diukur dengan indeks MSCI EM dalam mata uang lokal, (Gambar 1), dan imbal hasil obligasi dalam negeri dan selisih (spread) obligasi dolar AS meningkat masing-masing sebesar 120 dan 70 basis poin (seperti diukur oleh indeks acuan JP Morgan). Valuta komoditas dan pasar berkembang seperti mata uang Real Brazil, Rand Afrika Selatan dan Dolar Australia turun sebesar 10 persen. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 1 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dan Indonesia telah Pasar aset-aset Indonesia telah mengalami koreksi pada beberapa minggu terakhir, seperti menerima dampak yang dialami oleh pasar negara berkembang lainnya. Sejak awal bulan Mei hingga akhir yang signifikan… kuartal kedua, saham – saham di Indonesia mencatat penurunan sebesar 4 persen, dan investor asing beralih menjadi penjual bersih dengan nilai penjualan saham yang mencapai lebih dari Rp 18 triliun (1,8 miliar dolar AS), yang secara efektif menghilangkan aliran masuk modal yang cukup besar yang tercatat sebelumnya di tahun 2013 (Gambar 4). Kurva imbal hasil (yields)surat utang Pemerintah telah meningkat dan mendatar secara signifikan, dengan imbal hasil yang meningkat sebesar 150-220 basis poin sejak awal bulan Mei. Kepemilikan obligasi Indonesia juga turun tajam dengan penyusutan sebesar Rp 14 triliun (1,4 miliar dolar AS) sejak bulan April (Gambar 4). Derasnya modal keluar dari pasar-pasar saham dan obligasi Indonesia pada beberapa minggu terakhir tampaknya sejalan dengan yang terlihat di pasar negara-negara berkembang utama lainnya, yang juga mencatat aliran modal keluar yang besar. Kinerja harga saham cukup sebanding, sementara kinerja obligasi dalam negeri tercatat lebih lemah bila dibandingkan dengan kinerja beberapa negara pembanding Indonesia, yang didasari ekspektasi meningkatnya inflasi sejak bulan Februari dikarenakan kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi dan naiknya defisit APBN 2013 yang mendorong tekanan naik bagi imbal hasil. …dengan pasar Kemungkinan penurunan program pembelian obligasi dari Bank Sentral AS pada tahun ini menyesuaikan mencerminkan perkiraan bahwa ekonomi AS akan terus menguat, mengikuti pertumbuhan terhadap perubahan pada kuartal pertama yang disetahunkan sebesar 1,8 persen, naik dari 0,4 persen pada kuartal kebijakan global dan terakhir tahun 2012, dan sebagian besar data ekonomi pada bulan-bulan terakhir penyimpangan menunjukkan kejutan yang positif. Sebaliknya, kinerja terbaru ekonomi berkembang tidaklah momentum ekonomi menggembirakan. Pertumbuhan PDB di Brasil hanya mencapai 2,2 persen pada kuartal pertama bila disetahunkan dan PDB riil India mencapai angka 4,7 persen yang lebih tinggi dari angka tahun lalu, mendekati laju pertumbuhan yang paling lambat sejak tahun 2009. PDB China pada kuartal pertama meningkat sebesar 7,7 persen tahun-ke-tahun (yoy) – pertumbuhan yang kuat, namun berada di bawah perkiraan konsensus. Data ekonomi terbaru yang tersedia menunjukkan berlanjutnya penyimpangan momentum ekonomi yang signifikan antar ekonomi-ekonomi berpenghasilan menengah utama (terutama AS, Jepang dan Jerman) dan ekonomi berkembang utama (terutama China) (Gambar 2). Gambar 1: Pasar-pasar negara berkembang (EM) mencatat Gambar 2: …bersamaan dengan penyimpangan momentum kuartal 2 yang lemah, dengan kinerja saham di bawah ekonomi yang signifikan lintas ekonomi beberapa negara kinerja saham AS… utama (Indeks acuan saham AS dan US, Jan 4 2010 = 100) (Pertumbuhan PDB, tingkat disetahunkan dengan penyesuaian musiman, persen) 150 10 Developing High income Global 140 S&P 500 8 130 MSCI-EM (mata 6 uang lokal) 120 4 110 2 100 90 0 MSCI-EM (dolar AS) 80 -2 Jan-10 Mar-11 May-12 Jul-13 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Catatan: Data hingga 28 Juni 2013 Sumber: Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; MSCI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 2 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 3: Saham dan obligasi pemerintah Indonesia telah Gambar 4: …di tengah penjualan besar-besaran obligasi dan melemah tajam sejak bulan Mei… saham luar negeri (indeks; imbal hasil, persen) (pembelian kumulatif bersih luar neger, triliun Rp) 90 5,500 7.0 Obligasi 80 6.5 70 Saham BEI (kiri) 5,000 60 6.0 50 4,500 5.5 40 30 5.0 20 4,000 Saham 10 imbal hasil SUN 5- 4.5 tahun (kanan) 0 3,500 4.0 -10 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Catatan: Data hingga 28 Juni 2013 Catatan: Data aliran obligasi sampai 25 Juni, saham sampai 28 Juni Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia 2013 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Harga-harga ekspor Kinerja ekonomi global yang Tabel 2: Harga komoditas masih di bawah tekanan komoditas utama tidak merata saat ini, masih (Harga komoditas dolar AS, persentase perubahan; bagian ekspor, Indonesia masih tetap rendahnya prospek persen) Bagian ter tekanan pertumbuhan dunia dan koreksi terhad harga-harga aset pasar negara Perubahan s.d. akhir Juni 2013 ap berkembang, bersama-sama dari: ekspor dengan menguatnya dolar AS, * terus memberi tekanan terhadap Jan05 Jun11 Dec12 Mei13 harga komoditas. Keranjang Bata bara 53,1 -32,4 -12,6 -7,1 13,8 tertimbang produk komoditas Gas alam -39,7 -17,6 12,3 -8,5 10,2 ekspor utama Indonesia Minyak mencatat pergerakan yang relatif sawit 84,9 -34,4 -4,2 -12,5 9,3 mendatar hingga akhir bulan Minyak Mei, dan lebih rendah sebesar 129,6 -10,7 -7,3 -1,3 6,5 mentah 21 persen dibanding pasca Karet 137,2 -43,1 -9,7 -7,6 4,2 puncak keuangan global pada Tembaga 111,5 -26,0 -15,8 -7,5 2,4 bulan Januari 2011, dengan Catatan: Batubara Australia, indeks gas alam Bank Dunia, penurunan lanjutan sebagian minyak sawit Malaysia, minyak mentah Brent, karet pasar besar komoditas utama yang Singapura, tembaga pasar London; *Bagian ekspor per 2012 signifikan pada bulan Juni Sumber: BPS; Bank Dunia dan perhitungan staf (Tabel 2). Berlanjutnya perlemahan harga-harga komoditas membebani investasi dan ekspor, dan berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan. Permintaan eksternal Bank Dunia tetap memproyeksikan peningkatan yang stabil dan bertahap dalam diperkirakan tidak pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia pada kuartal-kuartal yang akan datang. Hal ini mencerminkan akan meningkat laju kegiatan ekonomi yang lambat di beberapa negara berpenghasilan tinggi, dengan dengan tajam dalam pertumbuhan yang umumnya masih lemah namun dengan kecenderungan yang menguat, beberapa kuartal ke dibantu dengan kokohnya pemulihan sektor swasta AS dan prospek pertumbuhan yang lebih depan kuat di Jepang, sementara kondisi ekonomi di zona Eropa masih sulit untuk diprediksikan. Lintasan pertumbuhan pada negara-negara berkembang juga tidak merata, tetapi secara umum diperkirakan akan sedikit menguat. Untuk proyeksi tahunan, ekonomi negara - negara mitra dagang utama Indonesia diperkirakan akan tumbuh sebesar 3,4 persen pada tahun 2013, setara dengan laju pertumbuhan pada tahun 2012, dan 0,3 poin persentase lebih rendah dibanding proyeksi pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013, yang mencerminkan realisasi pertumbuhan yang di bawah perkiraan untuk beberapa mitra dagang utama seperti J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 3 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia China di kuartal pertama. Negara – negara mitra dagang utama diproyeksikan akan mencatat peningkatan menjadi 4,0 persen pada tahun 2014. Penjualan besar-besaran yang belakangan terjadi pada aset-aset pasar berkembang, dan potensi dampaknya terhadap biaya dan ketersediaan pendanaan, dan pada kepercayaan investor, tetap membawa risiko terhadap proyeksi condong ke arah penurunan. 2. APBN-P: kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi dan pelebaran proyeksi defisit APBN-P telah Dengan latar belakang pelemahan pada pasar keuangan dalam dan luar negeri, DPR disahkan dan harga menyetujui APBN-P tahun 2013 pada tanggal 17 Juni. Bagian terpentingnya adalah BBM bersubsidi telah perubahan pada proyeksi belanja bagi subsidi BBM, yang berkaitan dengan peningkatan dinaikkan harga BBM bersubsidi jangka pendek, paket kompensasi yang dirancang untuk mengurangi dampak kenaikan harga BBM terhadap rakyat miskin, dan proyeksi peningkatan defisit APBN untuk tahun berjalan, yang berasal dari penurunan proyeksi penerimaan nominal, peningkatan jumlah belanja dan perlemahan antisipasi pertumbuhan PDB. Kenaikan harga BBM diumumkan oleh Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral pada tanggal 21 Juni (Permen ESDM No. 18/2013); mulai berlaku pada 22 Juni, dengan peningkatan harga premium bersubsidi sebesar 44 persen menjadi Rp 6.500 per liter dan harga solar bersubsidi meningkat sebesar 22 persen menjadi Rp 5.500 per liter. Target defisit anggaran Target defisit APBN-P 2013 sebesar 2,4 persen dari PDB, meningkat dari nilai sebelumnya 2013 kini 2,4 persen sebesar 1,7 persen (Tabel 4). Perkiraan defisit yang lebih besar ini berasal dari menurunnya dari PDB, naik dari 1,7 proyeksi penerimaan sebesar 2 persen, menjadi Rp 1.502 triliun, dan meningkatnya belanja persen sebesar 3 persen menjadi Rp 1.726 triliun. Defisit primer diproyeksikan akan mencapai Rp 112 triliun (1,2 persen dari PDB), yang merupakan penambahan sebesar Rp 72 triliun dibanding APBN 2013 sebelum perubahan. Proyeksi penerimaan yang lebih rendah umumnya berasal dari penurunan perkiraan penerimaan pajak tahun 2013, yang diturunkan sebesar 4 persen dari APBN awal menjadi Rp 1.148 triliun, di mana penyesuaian terbesar terjadi pada proyeksi pajak penghasilan dan pajak perdagangan internasional, yang masing- masing penurunannya sebesar 7,9 persen dan 17,5 persen. Penurunan proyeksi penerimaan juga diikuti oleh penurunan pertumbuhan PDB dari 6,8 ke 6,3 persen. Proyeksi produksi minyak untuk tahun berjalan juga diturunkan menjadi 840 ribu barel per hari (bpd) dari 900 ribu barel per hari. Namun demikian peningkatan harga minyak mentah sebesar 8 dolar AS untuk rata-rata tahun 2013, menjadi 108 dolar AS per barel, akan meningkatkan penerimaan yang berkaitan dengan penerimaan minyak sebesar hampir 7 persen dibanding APBN awal tahun 2013. Belanja meningkat Pada sisi pengeluaran, belanja subsidi BBM diproyeksikan akan meningkat sebesar Rp 6,1 relatif terhadap APBN triliun dibanding APBN sebelum perubahan sebesar Rp 193,8 triliun, walau harga BBM sebelumnya karena bersubsidi telah dinaikan. Hal ini mencerminkan bahwa tanpa reformasi, belanja subsidi meningkatnya belanja energi akan melampaui anggaran secara signifikan sebelumnya, yang menggambarkan sosial dan subsidi tekanan harga dan konsumsi BBM. Subsidi listrik ditargetkan mencapai Rp 100 triliun (Rp energi 19,1 triliun lebih besar dibanding APBN), sehingga keseluruhan belanja untuk subsidi energi diproyeksikan akan mencapai 9,1 persen di atas APBN sebelum perubahan, sebesar Rp 300 triliun. Hal lain dari sisi pengeluaran adalah peningkatan belanja sosial sebesar Rp 7 triliun menjadi Rp 81 triliun, yang sebagian berasal dari paket kompensasi yang dirancang untuk mengurangi dampak peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi. Bagian B.1 membahas kebijakan bantuan sosial yang baru ini secara lebih rinci. Reformasi subsidi Bank Dunia memproyeksikan bahwa tanpa adanya reformasi, belanja untuk subsidi BBM BBM berdampak untuk tahun 2013 akan melampaui APBN 2013 sebesar Rp 25 triliun. Dengan adanya positif namun kecil reformasi ini, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan bahwa belanja subsidi BBM akan menjadi Rp terhadap fiskal bersih 177 triliun – sedikit di bawah angka APBN-P yaitu Rp 200 triliun, yang disebabkan oleh tahun 2013… perbedaan asumsi ekonomi makro pada harga minyak, pertumbuhan PDB dan nilai tukar (Tabel 4). Penghematan fiskal langsung untuk tahun 2013 dari kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada pertengahan tahun diperkirakan oleh Bank Dunia akan mencapai Rp 42,1 J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 4 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia triliun (atau 0,5 persen dari proyeksi PDB), dan Rp 13 triliun bersih dari paket kompensasi sebesar Rp 29 triliun (atau 0,14 persen dari PDB). Manfaat fiskal utama dari reformasi subsidi pada tahun 2013 adalah bahwa Pemerintah dapat menghindari kelebihan belanja yang terlalu besar untuk subsidi BBM, yang akan memberikan tekanan tambahan terhadap defisit fiskal yang kini telah semakin melebar dengan perkiraan perlemahan penerimaan. …sementara Relatif terhadap skenario tanpa reformasi, “business as usual”, penghematan fiskal untuk penghematan fiskal beberapa tahun berikut dari kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi berjumlah cukup signifikan pada tahun (Gambar 5). Menggunakan proyeksi ekonomi makro dasar (baseline) dan mengasumsikan kurs selanjutnya, walaupun tukar dan harga minyak yang stabil, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan belanja BBM bersubsidi pada dasarnya tidak akan turun menjadi Rp 148 triliun pada tahun 2014 dari Rp 177 triliun pada tahun 2013 dan pasti, berjumlah Rp 212 triliun pada tahun 2012. Hal ini merupakan penghematan setahun penuh sebesar Rp signifikan dibanding 85,2 triliun pada tahun 2014 (0,8 persen dari PDB), dibanding bila harga BBM tidak naik. skenario tanpa- Penghematan relatif terhadap skenario tanpa reformasi diproyeksikan akan meningkat pada perubahan dua tahun berikutnya (Rp 97,7 triliun pada tahun 2015, dan Rp 112,4 triliun pada tahun 2016). Namun perkiraan penghematan beberapa tahun kedepan ini sangat tidak pasti, karena sangat bergantung kepada harga energi internasional dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Peningkatan harga energi dunia atau depresiasi Rupiah yang berkelanjutan dapat memperbesar selisih antara harga subsidi dan harga pasar, yang mendorong belanja subsidi ke tingkat yang lebih besar. Tabel 3: Penghematan fiskal dari reformasi subsidi BBM Gambar 5: Dalam beberapa tahun kedepan, penghematan tahun 2013 hanyalah kecil, setelah dikurangi paket fiskal cukup besar, dibandingkan belanja BBM bersubsidi kompensasi yang cukup besar tanpa reformasi (triliun Rupiah) (triliun Rupiah) 2013 2013 Direct savings tanpa dengan Actual spending reformasi reformasi 300 Revised Budget Belanja subsidi BBM 193,8* 199,9** Spending, without reform Proyeksi Bank Dunia untuk 250 Spending, with reform 218,7 176,6 pengeluaran subsidi BBM 200 Proyeksi Bank Dunia untuk penghematan langsung dari 42,1 150 reformasi Paket kompensasi: 29,1 100 BLSM (Rp 150.000 untuk 4 9,3 50 bulan bagi 15,5 juta keluarga) Pengeluaran fiskal untuk 0 19,8 program kompensasi lainnya Proyeksi Bank Dunia untuk penghematan bersih dari 13,1 reformasi Catatan: *APBN sebelum perubahan **APBN-P Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 5 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 4: Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit fiskal sebesar 2,1 persen, sedikit lebih rendah dari asumsi APBN-P (triliun Rupiah, kecuali dinyatakan lain) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 2013 Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi APBN APBN-P Triwulan (belum Juli Bank diaudit) Dunia A. Penerimaan 995 1.211 1.336 1.530 1.502 1.448 1. Penerimaan pajak 723 874 980 1.193 1.148 1.131 2. Penerimaan bukan pajak 269 331 352 332 349 313 B. Pengeluaran 1.042 1.295 1.482 1.683 1.726 1.637 1. Pemerintah pusat, yaitu 697 884 1.001 1.154 1.197 1.108 Pegawai 148 176 198 242 233 228 Barang 98 125 137 201 203 179 Modal 80 118 140 184 188 166 Subsidi, yaitu 193 295 346 317 348 318 Subsidi BBM 82 165 212 194 200 177 Sosial 69 71 75 74 81 74 2. Transfer ke daerah 345 411 480 529 529 529 C. Neraca primer 42 9,0 -46 -40 -112 -87 D. SURPLUS / DEFISIT -47 -84 -146 -153 -224 -189 Defisit (persen dari PDB) -0,7 -1,1 -1,8 -1,7 -2,4 -2,1 E. Pembiayaan bersih 92 131 180 153 224 n.a 1. Pembiayaan dalam negeri 96 149 199 173 241 n.a 2. Pembiayaan luar negeri -4,6 -17,8 -19,2 -19,5 -16,9 n.a Asumsi ekonomi utama Pertumbuhan ekonomi (persen) 6,1 6,5 6,2 6,8 6,3 5,9 IHK (persen) 7,0 3,8 4,3 4,9 7,2 7,2 Kurs tukar (Rp/dolar AS) 9.078 8.779 9.384 9.300 9.600 9.750 Harga minyak (dolar AS/barel) 79 112 113 100 108 106 Produksi minyak (ribu barel/hari) 954 899 861 900 840 840 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Defisit anggaran Defisit anggaran selama lima bulan pertama tahun 2013 tercatat mendekati Rp 26 triliun. selama Jan–Mei 2013 Jumlah ini tidak umum di awal tahun; kecuali tahun 2012 yang mencatat defisit anggaran berjumlah Rp 26 triliun sebesar Rp 4 triliun, saldo anggaran biasanya mencatat nilai positif untuk periode ini. Defisit separuh tahun yang tidak umum ini disebabkan oleh lemahnya pertumbuhan penerimaan dan tingginya belanja, yang menjadikan semakin pentingnya mengurangi belanja subsidi BBM. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 6 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Pengumpulan Jumlah penerimaan pada bulan Januari-Mei 2013 meningkat sebesar 10,1 persen (yoy), penerimaan sedikit lebih tinggi dibanding periode yang sama pada tahun 2012 (8,3 persen), namun lebih mengalami rendah dari tahun 2011. Relatif terhadap proyeksi tahunan, penerimaan pada lima bulan perlambatan pada lima pertama tahun 2013 adalah yang paling rendah pada beberapa tahun terakhir (pada 33,4 bulan pertama tahun persen dari target penerimaan setahun penuh), walau dengan peningkatan yang signifikan 2013 dalam penerimaan bukan pajak (yang hanya merupakan 23 persen dari jumlah penerimaan). Perlambatan dalam pertumbuhan penerimaan ini tercatat diseluruh jenis pajak, sejalan dengan penurunan pertumbuhan nominal PDB, dan perlambatan pada pertumbuhan konsumsi secara khusus, seperti dibahas pada Bagian 4, dan juga lesunya ekspor dan harga komoditas. Perlemahan dalam pertumbuhan pendapatan pajak umumnya didorong oleh lambatnya penerimaan pajak penghasilan badan karena penurunan pertumbuhan nominal PDB dan harga komoditas, dan juga karena pengaruh oleh peningkatan yang signifikan dalam Penghasilan Tidak Kena Pajak (PTKP).1 Tabel 5: Realisasi APBN untuk Jan – Mei telah meningkat dibanding tahun-tahun yang lalu namun masih menantang (triliun Rupiah, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Pertumbuhan nominal yoy Nilai nominal (Jan – Mei) Bagian (Jan – Mei) APBN (Jan - Mei) (triliun Rupiah) (persen) (persen) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 Penerimaan negara 356 421 456 502 35,9 36,0 33,6 33,4 20,4 18,3 8,3 10,1 dan hibah Penerimaan pajak, 275 327 373 397 37,1 37,2 36,8 34,5 14,9 18,6 14,4 6,2 dari Pajak non-migas 128 150 168 170 41,7 40,9 37,7 36,5 7,9 17,0 12,0 1,0 PPN 82 92 121 138 31,3 30,9 36,0 32,5 24,1 12,0 31,1 14,1 Pajak ekspor 1 14 9 6 25,2 53,7 39,6 33,9 251,1 893,3 -32,6 -35,2 Penerimaan bukan 80 94 82 105 32,5 33,0 24,0 30,0 44,1 17,5 -13,4 28,2 pajak Pengeluaran 295 364 460 528 26,2 27,6 29,7 30,6 2,7 23,5 26,3 14,8 Pemerintah, yaitu 175 213 273 317 22,4 23,4 25,5 26,5 1,1 21,3 28,2 16,3 Pegawai 56 68 79 89 34,5 37,0 37,0 38,1 8,7 20,5 16,0 13,1 Barang 21 24 31 33 18,4 17,0 18,8 16,1 21,4 16,9 26,0 6,9 Modal 12 14 23 25 13,0 9,7 13,0 13,5 -15,6 10,5 67,6 11,1 Subsidi energi 37 54 70 95 25,6 27,8 34,7 31,6 90,8 47,1 29,4 35,2 Bantuan sosial 15 7 22 16 20,6 8,9 25,9 20,3 -10,9 -50,5 207,6 -26,6 Transfer ke daerah 119 151 187 211 34,7 36,7 39,1 39,8 5,2 26,8 23,5 12,6 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia 1 Pada tanggal 22 Oktober 2012 Pemerintah meningkatkan batas pendapatan tidak kena pajak dari Rp 15,8 juta ke Rp 24,3 juta per tahun, berlaku mulai 1 Januari 2013. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 7 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Penyerapan APBN Pada sisi pengeluaran, penyerapan APBN menunjukkan pola musiman pada umumnya pada lima bulan dimana pencairan yang relatif rendah di awal tahun, namun sedikit meningkat dibanding pertama sedikit tahun-tahun yang lalu. Pada akhir bulan Mei, 30,6 persen dari proyeksi belanja tahunan dari membaik dibanding APBN-P telah dicairkan, yang merupakan tingkat penyerapan tertinggi dalam beberapa tahun tahun lalu tapi tetap terakhir, dan bahkan bila belanja subsidi dikeluarkan dari perhitungan, pencairan anggaran menghadapi tantangan masih dianngap cukup tinggi bila dibanding tahun – tahun sebelumnya yaitu sebesar 30,4 persen. Namun demikian secara keseluruhan pencairan anggaran masih menjadi tantangan, terutama dalam kaitannya dengan perubahan alokasi belanja (pemotongan anggaran) sebagai akibat dari APBN-P yang dapat menambah kerumitan pelaksanaan anggaran untuk sisa tahun 2013. Selain itu, tantangan yang masih berjalan dalam kaitannya dengan blokir DIPA (tanda bintang) pada kuartal pertama masih menyebabkan penundaan belanja pada sejumlah Kementerian negara. Pembiayaan bruto Kondisi pembiayaan, baik dalam maupun luar negeri, dengan peningkatan suku bunga global telah meningkat secara sejak bulan Mei, makin mengetat sejak edisi Triwulanan terakhir. Mengikuti APBN-P dan signifikan peningkatan tambahan proyeksi defisit sebesar Rp 70,9 triliun, pembiayaan hutang bruto untuk tahun 2013 diperkirakan akan meningkat sebesar Rp 52,6 triliun relatif terhadap sasaran tahun 2013 sebelum perubahan, menjadi Rp 380,6 triliun, menurut Direktur Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang (DJPU). Prospek penawaran tambahan hutang ini telah menjadi satu faktor yang mendorong koreksi yang signifikan dalam pasar obligasi dalam negeri sejak Februari, bersama-sama dengan antisipasi pengaruh inflasi dari reformasi subsidi BBM dan kondisi pasar internasional; imbal hasil obligasi telah meningkat sebesar 150-200 basis poin lintas kurva yield ke tingkat yang terakhir tercatat pada pertengahan tahun 2011 (lihat Bagian 3 untuk diskusi selanjutnya tentang perkembangan pasar keuangan). Hal ini menggambarkan keadaan yang lebih menantang untuk penerbitan surat utang baru, dengan perlemahan pasar primer menjelang akhir kuartal kedua dan penerbitan bruto sebesar 56 persen yang masih tersisa untuk tahun 2013 per tanggal 25 Juni.2 Risiko-risiko pembiayaan pemerintah dari yield yang lebih tinggi termitigasi dengan relatif rendahnya proporsi hutang dengan suku bunga variabel pada jumlah persediaan hutang (sekitar 16 persen pada tahun 2012, menurut perhitungan DJPU), dan Pemerintah memiliki cadangan dana dan pembiayaan darurat yang dapat digunakan dalam hal terjadi dislokasi yang lebih buruk pada pasar obligasi. Bank Dunia Bank Dunia memproyeksikan bahwa keseluruhan pengumpulan penerimaan tahun 2013 memproyeksikan akan sedikit lebih rendah dari proyeksi pada APBN-P (Tabel 4), yang merefleksikan proyeksi bahwa defisit fiskal PDB nominal yang lebih lemah begitu juga dalam harga-harga komoditas (seperti dibahas tahun 2013 akan pada Bagian 4), kondisi sektor sumber daya alam yang masih menantang, dan sedikit mencapai 2,1 persen pengaruh negatif bersih dari pengumpulan PPN dari peningkatan subsidi BBM. Bank Dunia dari PDB, sedikit lebih juga memproyeksikan bahwa keseluruhan pengeluaran akan berada sedikit di bawah APBN- rendah dari asumsi P, yang mencerminkan masih banyaknya tantangan dalam upaya pencairan anggaran pada APBN-P (terutama bagi belanja barang dan modal), dan juga belanja subsidi energi yang sedikit lebih rendah karena asumsi harga minyak yang lebih rendah (106 dolar AS per barel dibanding asumsi sebesar 108 dolar AS per barel). Pada akhirnya, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit APBN yang sedikit lebih kecil untuk tahun 2013 yaitu 2,1 persen dari PDB, dibanding target APBN-P sebesar 2,4 persen. 2 Lihat Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang, Presentasi Pertemuan Investor bulan Juni 2013, yang tersedia secara online. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 8 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 3. Pasar keuangan, valuta, dan kredit Indonesia: kuartal yang bergejolak Penurunan yang Sementara penyesuaian yang cukup pada pasar keuangan Indonesia yang terjadi sejak bulan belakangan terjadi di Mei (Gambar 3), hal ini harus ditempatkan dalam konteks kinerja yang kuat secara umum pasar keuangan, terjadi pada lima bulan pertama tahun 2013. Saham-saham Indonesia mencatat prestasi yang kuat setelah pembukaan secara khusus pada paruh pertama kuartal tersebut, meningkatkan naiknya harga pada kuartal yang kuat pada kuartal pertama dengan berlanjutnya pertumbuhan keuntungan perusahaan lintas sebagian besar kedua sektor dan kuatnya pembelian bersih ekuitas Indonesia oleh investor asing, yang mencapai Rp 26 triliun (2,7 miliar dolar AS) dari awal tahun hingga pertengahan bulan Mei 2013, yang dipimpin oleh sektor properti (yang naik sebanyak 57 persen) dan barang konsumsi (yang meningkat sebesar 38 persen). Kinerja pasar obligasi lebih bercampur, dengan peningkatan inflasi yang mendorong imbal hasil menjadi agak lebih tinggi, namun investor asing masih menjadi pembeli bersih obligasi negara Indonesia sebesar Rp 33 triliun selama periode tersebut. Nilai tukar rupiah Setelah melemah di bulan Maret dan April, dibantu dengan menguatnya pembelian bersih terhadap dolar AS saham dan obligasi dalam negeri oleh investor asing, dan dengan penerbitan obligasi negara mengalami tekanan, dan BUMN dalam dolar AS, kondisi likuiditas dolar AS di luar negeri kemudian mengetat dan Bank Indonesia karena aliran keluar modal portofolio yang besar. Cadangan devisa mencatat penurunan pada telah meningkatkan bulan Mei menjadi 105,2 miliar dolar AS walau telah menerima dorongan dari penerbitan suku bunganya… obligasi luar negeri yang cukup besar. Tekanan depresiasi valuta meningkat menjelang akhir bulan Mei, yang mencerminkan percepatan aliran keluar portofolio, dengan kurs Rupiah di dalam negeri turun hingga mencapai Rp 9,960 per dolar AS pada akhir Juni untuk pertama kalinya sejak bulan September 2009, sementara suku bunga non-deliverable forward (NDF) asing menembus 10,000 pada awal Juni. Bank Indonesia mengambil langkah yang mengejutkan pasar pada tanggal 12 Juni dengan meningkatkan suku bunga Fasilitas Simpanan Bank Indonesia (FASBI) sebesar 25 basis poin, menjadi 4,25 persen. Langkah ini diikuti dengan peningkatan BI Rate sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 6 persen pada tanggal 13 Juni – peningkatan pertama sejak tahun 2011. …tetapi Rupiah Sementara Rupiah telah mengalami depresiasi secara berkelanjutan terhadap dolar AS secara sebetulnya mengalami nominal sejak pertengahan tahun 2011, mata uang Rupiah sesungguhnya mengalami apresiasi apresiasi di 2013 bila secara pembobotan perdagangan dan secara riil sejak awal tahun 2013. Apresiasi ini dihitung berdasarkan mencerminkan depresiasi valas yang belakangan terjadi terhadap negara – negara mitra pembobotan perdagangan utama (terutama Jepang, yang mana Rupiah mencatat apresiasi sebesar 10 perdagangan persen terhadap Yen sejauh ini pada tahun 2013), dan laju inflasi Indonesia yang lebih tinggi juga menekan kurs tukar riilnya menjadi lebih tinggi. Rupiah kini telah meningkat sebesar 3 persen secara pembobotan perdagangan dan sebesar 4 persen secara riil sejak awal tahun 2013. Karenanya, sejak awal tahun 2013 hanya terdapat sedikit penyesuaian riil kurs tukar terhadap posisi luar neger Indonesia yang lebih lemah, yang menunjukkan bahwa gabungan dari kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat dan berlanjutnya depresiasi Rupiah secara teratur dapat merupakan langkah yang tepat. Pertumbuhan kredit Pertumbuhan kredit terus melambat pada kuartal kedua, dengan pertumbuhan kredit bank telah menurun nominal melambat menjadi 22 persen yoy pada bulan April, memotong pertumbuhan riil belakangan ini, (setelah terjadi) menjadi 15 persen yoy pada bulan April, laju terlambatnya sejak bulan didorong oleh Desember 2010. Pinjaman investasi memimpin moderasi tersebut, dengan penurunan perlemahan pemberian sebesar 24 persen yoy hingga bulan April, turun dari nilai tertingginya sebesar 30 persen pada pinjaman investasi bulan Juli 2012, sejalan dengan perlemahan pada kegiatan investasi riil (Gambar 7). Laju pertumbuhan kredit konsumsi melemah menjadi 19 persen hingga bulan Maret, sementara pertumbuhan dalam kredit modal kerja juga turut menurun belakangan ini. Indikator kehati- hatian tingkat sistem perbankan tetap stabil selama tahun 2013, dengan kredit macet yang bertahan pada kisaran 2 persen, sementara metrik profitabilitas bagi bank-bank Indonesia masih bertahan kuat, termasuk relatif terhadap pembandingnya di wilayah yang sama. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 9 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 6: Rupiah telah terapresiasi secara nominal dan Gambar 7: Pinjaman investasi menurun sejalan dengan berdasarkan pembobotan perdagangan selama tahun 2013 perlambatan laju pertumbuhan investasi riil (perubahan kumulatif sejak 1 Juli 2011, persen) (perubahan ytahun ke tahun, persen) 18 50 Depresiasi Rp 16.0 15 40 Pinjaman investasi Kurs tukar spot 12 Rp-dolar AS 9 30 NEER 6 6.0 20 3 REER 2.4 10 0 Pertumbuhan investasi -3 0 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Catatan: NEER adalah rata-rata bergerak 1-bulan dari indeks harian Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia NEER yang dihitung dengan jumlah bobot perdagangan 2012 Sumber: BIS (REER); BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Harga properti tempat Walau dengan pelambatan laju pemberian pinjaman bank bagi properti rumah dan tinggal meningkat konstruksi pada beberapa bulan terakhir (Gambar 8), pertumbuhan harga properti telah dengan laju yang meningkat. Pertumbuhan harga properti secara nasional mencapai 11,2 persen selama tahun tercepat selama dekade berjalan hingga bulan Maret, laju tercepat selama dekade terakhir. Peningkatan harga dipicu terakhir, sementara oleh kuatnya pertumbuhan harga untuk perumahan dengan ukuran yang lebih kecil (dengan properti komersial luas tanah kurang dari 36 meter persegi), yang tidak disertakan dalam persyaratan uang muka mencatat pertumbuhan minimum (loan-to-value) yang lebih ketat yang mulai berlaku bagi kredit perumahan pada yang lebih kuat pertengahan tahun 2012. Survei BI terbaru tentang pasar properti rumah tinggal sekunder Jakarta (tidak termasuk apartemen) juga menunjukkan pertumbuhan harga yang kuat, dengan peningkatan harga sebesar 3,8 persen kuartal-ke-kuartal pada kuartal pertama bagi rumah- rumah berukuran menengah dan sebesar 3,5 persen bagi rumah-rumah yang lebih besar, suatu cerminan kuatnya pertumbuhan harga tanah di Jakarta.3 Sementara itu properti komersial juga menunjukkan pertumbuhan harga yang mantap dan berlanjut, dengan harga tanah industri di wilayah Jabodetabek meningkat sebesar 65 persen selama setahun hingga kuartal pertama 2013, sementara harga sewa ruang kantor meningkat sebesar 15 persen pada periode yang sama (Gambar 9). Pesatnya pertumbuhan harga yang sedemikian cepat pada sektor properti membutuhkan pemantauan yang cermat namun seperti dicatat pada Triwulanan edisi bulan 2013, paparan yang berkaian dengan properti di dalam sistem keuangan tetaplah kecil dengan kredit yang berkaitan dengan properti berjumlah sekitar 14 persen dari jumlah kredit perbankan, dan sekitar 12 persen dari penerbitan obligasi perusahaan pada perhitungan periode setahun hingga bulan Maret 2013. 3 Survei Bank Indonesia tentang Harga Properti Residensial di Pasar Sekunder pertama kali diterbitkan pada tanggal 24 April 2013 dengan menggunakan data hingga kuartal kedua tahun 2012. Rumah berukuran menengah memiliki ukuran antara 80 dan 150 meter persegi, sementara rumah besar memiliki ukuran di atas 150 meter persegi. Survei itu tidak melibatkan apartemen tempat tinggal. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 10 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 8: Harga rumah tinggal terus meningkat walau Gambar 9: …dengan pesatnya pertumbuhan harga dan pertumbuhan kredit perumahan menurun… kuatnya permintaan properti komersial di Jabodetabek (perubahan yoy, persen) (perubahan tahun berjalan, persen) 20 40 100 Harga properti perumahan: Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 kecil (kiri) 80 Harga properti perumahan: 15 jumlah (kiri) 30 Harga properti perumahan: 60 menengah (kiri) 10 20 40 Pertumbuhan kredit: properti (kanan) 20 5 10 0 Harga properti perumahan: Residential Office Residential Retail Industrial besar (kiri) homes (14 space (Jbk) apartments space land (Jbk) 0 0 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 city) (Jbk) (rental) (Jbk) Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia 4. Prospek ekonomi Indonesia mengalami penurunan Prospek pertumbuhan Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mengalami perlambatan pada kuartal pertama tahun telah menurun... 2013 ke 6,0 persen tahun-ke-tahun, sedikit lebih lemah dari perkiraan, dengan dampak yang tertunda dari menurunnya harga komoditas yang membebani investasi dan ekonomi menghadapi terjangan dari pengaruh gejolak pasar keuangan dan peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi. …yang mendorong Bank Dunia telah menurunkan proyeksinya untuk pertumbuhan PDB tahun 2013 menjadi Bank Dunia untuk 5,9 persen, dari 6,2 persen yang diproyeksikan pada Triwulanan bulan Maret 2013, sebagian menurunkan proyeksi besar disebabkan oleh prospek permintaan dalam negeri yang lebih lemah. Pertumbuhan pertumbuhan PDB investasi lebih lambat dari perkiraan, dengan pengaruh kepercayan yang berasal dari tahun 2013 menjadi 5,9 antisipasi reformasi subsidi BBM dan koreksi pada pasar aset yang membebani permintaan persen dalam negeri. Beban terhadap pertumbuhan dari ekspor bersih diperkirakan akan menurun pada sisa tahun 2013, walau secara relatif terhadap proyeksi yang lalu pemulihan ekspor diperkirakan akan melambat dan pertumbuhan impor diperkirakan juga akan lebih lemah, yang mencerminkan perlemahan prospek investasi. Dampak bersih sektor rill dari usulan reformasi BBM bersubsidi diperkirakan akan berjumlah kecil, dengan dampak negatif terhadap konsumsi dan investasi dari peningkatan harga BBM akan sebagian besar diimbangi dengan dampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan paket kompensasi. Namun dengan prospek inflasi yang lebih tinggi, pengetatan lebih lanjut mungkin dibutuhkan yang makin memperlambat laju pertumbuhan. Pertumbuhan PDB riil Kegiatan ekonomi Indonesia mengalami pelemahan pada kuartal pertama tahun 2013, pada kuartal pertama dengan penurunan pertumbuhan permintaan dalam negeri, terutama investasi (Gambar 10). 2013 terus mengalami PDB riil meningkat sebesar 6,0 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada kuartal pertama, yang pelemahan merupakan kuartal kesepuluh dengan pertumbuhan 6 persen atau lebih secara berturut-turut. Hasil kuartal pertama lebih rendah dari pertumbuhan 6,1 persen tahun-ke-tahun yang tercatat pada kuartal akhir tahun 2012, sementara ekonomi tumbuh 1,3 persen secara kuartal- ke-kuartal dengan penyesuaian musiman, turun dari 1,7 persen pada kuartal keempat. Pertumbuhan PDB nominal juga terus menurun, menjadi 8,7 persen tahun-ke-tahun, lajut yang paling lambat dalam 9 tahun terakhir (Gambar 11). Perlemahan pertumbuhan nominal umumnya disebabkan oleh penurunan tajam pertumbuhan deflator PDB, dengan penurunan yang signifikan dalam harga ekspor dengan perlemahan harga-harga komoditas global sebagai pendorong utama. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 11 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 10: Pertumbuhan PDB riil terus melemah, dengan Gambar 11: PDB nominal masih tetap lemah, sejalan dengan kontribusi dari investasi semakin mengecil lemahnya pertumbuhan dalam deflator PDB (pertumbuhan PDB riil tahun ke tahun, persen) (pertumbuhan tahun ke tahun, persen) 14 Private cons. Gov cons. 30 PDB nominal 12 Investment Net Exports Discrepancy GDP Deflator PDB 10 20 8 6 10 4 2 0 0 Deflator ekspor -2 -10 -4 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Catatan: Perbedaan termasuk perbedaan statistika dan persediaan Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Pertumbuhan investasi Pertumbuhan dalam investasi Gambar 12: Moderasi investasi umumnya didorong oleh terus melambat, riil terus melambat pada penurunan tajam dalam permesinan dan peralatan asing dan umumnya didorong kuartal pertama 2013, transportasi oleh perlemahan meningkat sebesar 5,9 persen (kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan investasi riil, persen, tahun ke tahun) investasi dalam tahun-ke-tahun, yang jauh di 16 Other transportasi, bawah 7,3 persen pada Foreign transportation Foreign machinery and equipment permesinan dan kuartal keempat dan Building peralatan asing puncaknya sebesar 12,5 Total 12 persen kuartal Juni tahun 2012. Secara penyesuaian musiman berurutan, investasi pada kuartal itu mendatar, 8 mengikuti pertumbuhan sebesar 1,9 persen kuartal-ke- kuartal dengan penyesuaian 4 musiman pada kuartal terakhir tahun lalu. Pendorong moderasi pertumbuhan yang signifikan 0 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 ini adalah transportasi luar Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia negeri, permesinan dan peralatan, yang kontribusinya secara bersama-sama terhadap pertumbuhan investasi secara agregat telah turun dari lebih dari 6,0 poin persentase pada kuartal Juni tahun 2012 menjadi kontribusi yang kosong sama sekali terhadap keseluruhan pertumbuhan investasi pada kuartal Maret 2013 (Gambar 12). Perlemahan ini konsisten dengan perlemahan yang masih berlangsung dalam kegiatan yang berkaitan dengan komoditas, yang banyak menggunakan investasi modal asing. Juga terdapat sejumlah penurunan dalam investasi gedung pada kuartal tersebut (85 persen dari jumlah investasi), yang tumbuh sebesar 7,2 persen tahun-ke-tahun, turun dari 7,8 persen pada kuartal akhir tahun 2012. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 12 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Konsumsi swasta Pertumbuhan konsumsi masyarakat juga mencatat moderasi pada kuartal pertama, mencatat perlambatan, meningkat sebesar 5,2 persen tahun-ke-tahun, sedikit turun dari 5,4 persen tahun-ke-tahun dengan kenaikan harga pada kuartal akhir tahun 2012. Hal ini mencerminkan perlambatan dalam konsumsi bukan bahan pangan bahan pangan, dengan peningkatan harga bahan pangan yang signifikan dalam kuartal itu menurunkan daya beli tampaknya membawa dampak yang negatif. Di sisi lain, konsumsi pemerintah menguat konsumen secara berurutan, meningkat sebesar 4,6 persen kuartal-ke-kuartal dengan penyesuaian musiman, dengan perbedaan 0,4 persen lebih tinggi dibanding satu tahun yang lalu, dengan lemahnya realisasi menjelang akhir tahun 2012. Ekspor bersih Ekspor bersih berkontribusi secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan kuartal pertama, mencatat kontribusi dengan kontribusi sekitar 3,5 poin persentase terhadap pertumbuhan kuartal-ke-kuartal yang positif bagi dengan penyesuaian musiman dan 1,8 persen terhadap pertumbuhan tahun-ke-tahun. pertumbuhan, dengan Ekspor secara volume (walau tidak secara nilai) terus mencatat pemulihan selama kuartal peningkatan tipis pada tersebut, dengan peningkatan sebesar 3,0 persen kuartal-ke-kuartal dengan penyesuaian ekspor dan penurunan musiman dan 3,4 persen tahun-ke-tahun. Yang lebih menyolok adalah besarnya penurunan besar pada impor impor yang mencapai 5,4 persen kuartal-ke-kuartal dengan penyesuaian musiman, turun sebesar 0,4 persen tahun-ke-tahun, yang sejalan dengan pelemahan pertumbuhan dalam permintaan dalam negeri. Diskrepansi statistik Setelah berpengaruh besar kepada pertumbuhan pada sebagian besar tahun 2012, diskrepansi dan persediaan tidak statistik dan inventori menurunkan 0,1 poin persentase dari pertumbuhan tahun-ke-tahun lagi menjadi bagian pada kuartal Maret 2013. Sebagai akibatnya, perbedaan yang cukup besar antara pengukuran pertumbuhan yang pertumbuhan PDB dan penjualan riil akhir (yaitu jumlah pengukuran konsumsi masyarakat, besar konsumsi pemerintah, investasi tetap dan ekspor bersih), yang dibahas pada edisi-edisi terakhir Triwulanan sebagai bersifat indikatif akan risiko sisi permintaan terhadap pertumbuhan produksi, telah menyempit sesuai dengan pelemahan yang terjadi. Pada sisi produksi, Pada sisi produksi, sebagian besar pelemahan pada kuartal pertama didorong oleh sektor- sebagian besar sektor industri, sementara produksi perikanan, pertanian, peternakan dan kehutanan pelemahan meningkat dan kinerja sektor jasa-jasa bercampur. Secara agregat, produksi sektor industri pertumbuhan didorong meningkat sebesar 4,9 persen tahun-ke-tahun, turun dari 5,4 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada oleh sektor industri, kuartal akhir tahun 2012, dengan pertambangan dan penggalian masih terus mencatat terutama prestasi yang kurang, turun sebesar 0,4 persen dibanding satu tahun yang lalu. Sektor-sektor pertambangan dan industri lain terus mencatat kinerja yang kokoh, walau terdapat sejumlah penurunan kegiatan penggalian manufaktur, dengan pertumbuhan produksi sedikit menurun ke 5,8 persen tahun-ke-tahun, dan dalam sektor konstruksi, dengan penurunan pertumbuhan produksi menjadi 7,2 persen tahun-ke-tahun. Produksi sektor jasa secara agregat meningkat sebesar 7,6 persen tahun-ke- tahun, masih sama seperti kuartal akhir tahun 2012. Terdapat sejumlah penurunan dari perdagangan, hotel dan rumah makan, yang meningkat hanya sebesar 6,5 persen tahun-ke- tahun, jauh di bawah 7,8 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada kuartal 4. Sektor ini, yang merupakan sektor jasa terbesar, merupakan bagian yang besarnya hampir mencapai 15 persen dari PDB nominal dan telah memoderasi kegiatan pertumbuhan ekonomi sejak akhir tahun 2011. Namun kelemahan ini diimbangi oleh kuatnya hasil dari sub-sub sektor jasa lainnya, seperti transportasi dan komunikasi (meningkat sebesar 10,0 persen tahun-ke-tahun) dan kepemilikan keuangan dan jasa-jasa bisnis (meningkat sebesar 8,4 persen tahun-ke-tahun). J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 13 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Produksi pada sub- Pelemahan pada sektor Gambar 13: Produksi sektor pertambangan masih lemah sektor migas semakin pertambangan dan (perubahan tahun ke tahun pada pertambangan riil (non-migas), produksi menurun, sementara penggalian umumnya minyak mentah dan gas, persen) 20 pertumbuhan kegiatan didorong oleh pertambangan, pertambangan lainnya terutama minyak dan gas tetap lemah (migas). Sektor migas telah 15 Pertambangan (non- berkontraksi selama dua migas) tahun terakhir, dengan 10 penurunan produksi sebesar 5,7 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada kuartal Maret 2013, 5 mengikuti kontraksi sebesar 4,6 persen pada kuartal akhir 0 tahun 2012 (Gambar 13). Pertumbuhan pada produksi pertambangan non-migas -5 Minyak mentah dan gas juga mengalami perlambatan pada beberapa kuartal -10 terakhir, menjadi 3,7 persen Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 tahun-ke-tahun pada kuartal Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Maret, turun dari 4,4 persen pada kuartal akhir tahun 2012. Secara nominal, pertumbuhan produksi kontrak langsung non-migas mencapai 4,2 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada kuartal Maret. Namun secara berurutan, terdapat sejumlah tanda-tanda pencapaian dasar pada produksi pertambangan non-migas, walau pada tingkat yang jauh di atas pencapaian puncak pasca krisis keuangan dunia; produksi pertambangan non-migas pada kuartal satu meningkat sebesar 3,3 persen kuartal-ke-kuartal dengan penyesuaian musiman secara riil, dan sebesar 7,9 persen secara nominal. Sejumlah indikator Indikator-indikator berfrekuensi tinggi untuk bulan April dan Mei menunjukkan berlanjutnya frekuensi tinggi telah perlambatan pertumbuhan. Penurunan impor barang modal yang berkelanjutan (Gambar 14) melambat belakangan bersama-sama dengan moderasi pinjaman investasi seperti disinggung di atas, menunjukkan ini… bahwa pertumbuhan investasi akan tetap lemah untuk jangka pendek. Impor barang-barang modal semakin menurun selama lima kuartal berturut-turut pada April, dan telah menyusut sebesar 22,5 persen tahun-ke-tahun. Penurunan penjualan semen, indikator utama dalam kegiatan pembangunan, turun menjadi 13,1 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan Mei, lebih rendah dibanding 16,8 persen pada bulan Maret dan turun secara signifikan secara penyesuaian musiman berurutan (Gambar 15), yang menunjukkan berlanjutnya moderasi dalam investasi pembangunan seperti terlihat pada kuartal pertama. Namun kuatnya permintaan yang berkelanjutan dalam pasar properti rumah tinggal, yang mengakibatkan peningkatan tajam dalam harga-harga properti seperti dibahas pada Bagian 3, akan memberi sejumlah dukungan bagi investasi pembangunan ke depan. Sementara indeks PMI HSBC, yang mencapai 51,6 pada bulan Mei, terus menunjukkan kondisi usaha yang meluas pada sektor manufaktur, produksi industri menunjukkan tanda-tanda pelemahan momentum secara penyesuaian musiman berurutan (Gambar 15). Indikator-indikator konsumsi menunjukkan sejumlah pelemahan jangka pendek, dengan penjualan ritel meningkat sebesar 9,7 persen tahun-ke-tahun, jauh di bawah tingkat pertumbuhan yang mendekati 20 persen tahun-ke-tahun menjelang penutupan 2012. Indeks kepercayaan konsumen terus menurun, dengan indeks kepercayaan konsumen BI yang lebih rendah pada bulan April dan Mei, tampaknya karena adanya dampak negatif yang berasal dari antisipasi akan pengumuman reformasi subsidi Pemerintah. Namun sesuai dengan pengalaman yang lalu, belanja yang berkaitan dengan pemilihan umum (pemilu) presiden tahun 2014 akan memberikan dorongan konsumsi yang besar menjelang akhir 2013 hingga awal 2014. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 14 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 14: Berlanjutnya pelemahan impor barang modal Gambar 15: …sementara indikator ekonomi berfrekuensi menunjukkan pelemahan lanjutan dalam pertumbuhan tinggi menunjukkan berlanjutnya moderasi pertumbuhan investasi tetap… (perubahan 3-bulan dibanding 3 bulan yang lalu, tingkat penyesuaian (investasi tetap riil dan rata-rata bergerak impor barang modal 3-bulanan musiman yang disetahunkan, persen) dalam dolar AS, persen tahun ke tahun) 80 16 60 Impor barang modal , 3mma 50 Harga semen (kiri) 40 40 12 30 20 0 8 10 0 -10 -40 Investasi tetap riil (kanan) 4 Produksi industri -20 -30 -80 0 -40 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Catatan: Data telah disesuaikan untuk periode Ramadan Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Dampak bersih Kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi dapat menjadi kendala tambahan bagi investasi jangka terhadap pertumbuhan pendek, karena akan secara langsung menambah beban terhadap biaya transportasi, dan dari reformasi subsidi secara tidak langsung terhadap biaya barang-barang setengah jadi, sehingga meningkatkan diperkirakan tidak biaya operasinal dan investasi. Di sisi lain, penurunan pemborosan dana bagi subsidi BBM akan besar akan mendorong kepercayaan investasi terhadap posisi fiskal dan proses reformasi Indonesia. Peningkatan harga BBM juga diperkirakan akan membawa dampak negatif terhadap konsumsi masyarakat dengan penurunan daya beli. Namun paket kompensasi yang diusulkan (sekitar Rp 29 triliun), yang termasuk bantuan langsung yang signifikan kepada rakyat miskin, seperti dibahas pada Bagian B.1, akan mengimbangi sebagian dampak negatif terhadap konsumsi. Bagi rumah tangga yang lebih berada mungkin terjadi penurunan konsumsi secara sementara namun hal itu dapat termitigasi dengan peningkatan upah nominal seperti yang terjadi pada tahun 2008 ketika nominal upah pekerja manufaktur meningkat sebagai tanggapan atas kenaikan harga BBM dan peningkatan inflasi harga bahan pangan. Paket kompensasi Pemerintah juga menyertakan sejumlah belanja untuk infrastruktur dasar (sebesar Rp 7,25 triliun), yang akan membawa pengaruh meluas ke bagian-bagian lain ekonomi Indonesia. Perkiraan Proyeksi Bank Dunia bagi pertumbuhan PDB untuk tahun 2013 adalah 5,9 persen, lebih pertumbuhan PDB rendah dari proyeksi 6,2 persen pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Desember 2012 (Tabel 6). adalah 5,9 persen Konsumsi masyarakat diperkirakan akan menjadi pendorong utama pertumbuhan, yang untuk tahun 2013 dan didukung oleh belanja pra-pemilu menjelang akhir tahun ini, walau mungkin terdapat 6,2 persen untuk tahun sejumlah pelemahan jangka pendek. Pertumbuhan investasi diperkirakan akan semakin 2014 melambat, seperti ditunjukkan oleh berlanjutnya moderasi dalam kredit investasi dan semakin menurunnya belanja untuk barang-barang modal impor. Pertumbuhan yang kokoh dalam investasi pembangunan, yang didukung pesatnya pertumbuhan sektor konstruksi rumah tinggal, akan memberikan sejumlah pengimbang, karena konstruksi merupakan 85 persen dari jumlah belanja investasi nominal. Pertumbuhan impor dan ekspor akan bersama- sama berada di bawah tekanan selama tahun 2013, dengan sedikit pelemahan dibanding pertumbuhan mitra perdagangan utama yang diproyeksikan sebelumnya, yang mendorong penurunan pertumbuhan ekspor, sementara pertumbuhan impor juga diturunkan, sesuai dengan prospek investasi yang lebih lemah. Untuk tahun 2014, pertumbuhan diperkirakan akan meningkat menjadi 6,2 persen, dengan meluasnya dampak pemulihan global, yang akan mendorong ekspor dan investasi. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 15 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 6: Menurut skenario dasar (baseline) proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB adalah 5,9 persen untuk 2013, dan meningkat menjadi 6,2 persen untuk 2014 (persentase perubahan, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Tahun berjalan ke kuartal Tahunan Desember Revisi tahunan 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 1. Indikator ekonomi utama Jumlah pengeluaran konsumsi 4,8 4,9 5,6 3,9 5,7 5,0 -0,1 -0,2 Pengeluaruan konsumsi swasta 5,3 5,0 5,7 5,4 5,2 5,0 -0,5 -0,2 Konsumsi pemerintah 1,2 4,5 4,8 -3,3 8,2 4,9 2,7 -0,8 Pembentukan modal tetap bruto 9,8 4,4 6,2 7,3 4,1 6,7 -3,6 -3,4 Ekspor barang dan jasa 2,0 5,8 6,1 0,5 6,6 6,8 -0,1 -5,2 Impor barang dan jasa 6,6 1,0 5,2 6,8 -1,0 5,8 -7,6 -4,2 Produk domestik bruto 6,2 5,9 6,2 6,1 5,9 6,5 -0,3 -0,2 Pertanian 4,0 4,1 3,1 2,0 5,8 3,2 1,3 -0,1 Industri 5,2 4,5 5,0 5,4 4,1 5,3 -0,6 -0,4 Jasa-jasa 7,7 7,5 8,0 7,6 7,4 8,1 -0,4 -0,1 2. Indikator luar negeri Neraca pembayaran (miliar AS$) 0,2 -4,8 5,2 n/a n/a n/a -6,8 0,9 Saldo neraca berjalan (miliar AS$) -24,1 -25,2 -22,2 n/a n/a n/a -1,5 0,2 Neraca perdagangan (miliar AS$) -2,2 -5,0 -0,6 n/a n/a n/a -5,3 -5,2 Saldo neraca keuangan (miliar AS$) 24,9 20,5 27,4 n/a n/a n/a -5,2 0,7 3. Pengukuran ekonomi lainnya Indeks harga konsumen 4,3 7,2 6,7 4,4 9,0 5,3 1,8 1,5 Indeks keranjang kemiskinan 6,5 7,4 8,0 5,4 9,2 7,3 1,3 1,2 Deflator PDB 4,6 4,3 6,3 2,7 6,5 5,3 -0,6 0,4 PDB nominal 11,0 10,5 12,9 9,0 12,5 12,2 -0,9 0,2 4. Asumsi ekonomi Kurs tukar (Rp/dolar AS) 9419 9750 9700 9630 9770 9700 150,0 200,0 Harga minyak Indonesia (AS$/barel) 113 106 105 108 105 105 -4,0 0,0 Pertumbuhan mitra dagang utama 3,4 3,4 4,0 3,3 3,8 3,4 -0,3 0,0 Catatan: Angka 2012 dapat direvisi. Proyeksi aliran perdagangan berkaitan dengan neraca nasional. Revisi relatif terhadap proyeksi pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013. Sumber: Kemenkeu; BPS; BI; CEIC; proyeksi Bank Dunia. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 16 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 5. Inflasi akan naik untuk sementara mengikuti kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi Outlook inflasi Langkah Pemerintah untuk meningkatkan harga solar sebesar Rp 1.000 per liter dan didominasi oleh premium sebesar Rp 2.000 per liter pada tanggal 22 Juni 2013 diperkirakan akan mendorong peningkatan harga peningkatan yang tajam pada inflasi IHK dan keranjang kemiskinan, dengan peningkatan BBM bersubsidi… yang lebih landai pada inflasi inti. Peningkatan tajam itu diperkirakan hanya akan bersifat sementara dan akan berangsur-angsur hilang dengan berjalannya waktu. Pengelolaan yang berhati-hati oleh Bank Indonesia akan membantu memastikan bahwa tidak ada peningkatan perkiraan inflasi maupun hal yang mendasarinya secara terus-menerus. Berbeda dengan kenaikan harga BBM sebelumnya, peningkatan ini terjadi pada saat inflasi sedang terkendali dengan baik, dimana inflasi IHK yang mengalami moderasi sejalan dengan penurunan harga bahan pangan serta inflasi inti berada pada tingkat relatif rendah dan stabil. Peningkatan harga Harga BBM bersubsidi yang Gambar 16: Proyeksi inflasi IHK, dengan dan tanpa BBM bersubsidi akan lebih tinggi diperkirakan akan reformasi BBM bersubsidi menambah sekitar 1,8 meningkatkan inflasi sekitar (persen, tahun-ke-tahun) poin persentase kepada 1,8 poin persentase pada 20 rata-rata inflasi tahun 2013 dan sekitar 1,5 tahunan… poin persentase pada 2014. 18 Ramalan Dengan demikian, inflasi 16 diperkirakan akan mencapai 14 7,2 persen pada 2013 dan 6,7 12 persen pada 2014, dan Dengan mencapai puncaknya sekitar 9 10 reformasi persen tahun-ke-tahun pada 8 akhir 2013 (Gambar 16). 6 Dampak yang cukup besar ini mencerminkan dampak 4 Tanpa langsung yang kuat dari 2 reformasi peningkatan harga bensin, 0 dan juga dampak tidak Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 langsung yang kuat karena bensin merupakan bahan Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia iyang penting bagi banyak barang-barang konsumsi. Sementara itu, karena bobot bahan bakar solar terhadap rumah tangga tidaklah besar, tapi dampak tidak langsungnya cukup besar karena solar digunakan oleh bus-bus dan truk-truk untuk transportasi umum dan perdagangan. Tahapan dari reformasi ini berarti bahwa dampak terhadap inflasi tahunan akan berangsur-angsur menghilang pada kuartal September 2014, pada saat inflasi IHK diperkirakan mencapai 5,2 persen tahun-ke-tahun (Gambar 16). …dan juga mendorong Kenaikan harga BBM juga diperkirakan akan mendorong inflasi keranjang kemiskinan secara naik inflasi keranjang signifikan menjadi masing-masing sekitar 1,2 poin persentase pada tahun 2013 dan 1,3 poin kemiskinan… persentase pada 2014 menjadi 7,4 persen dan 8,0 persen. Sementara rata-rata konsumen akan menghadapi peningkatan harga bensin ketika membeli di pompa bensin, juga akan mengalami kenaikan harga secara umum pada barang-barang lainnya, sehingga keluarga miskin, yang konsumsinya hampir tidak memiliki keterkaitan langsung kepada BBM, secara umum akan menerima dampak dari kenaikan biaya transportasi pada harga bahan pangan (yang merupakan 60 persen dari keranjang konsumsi itu) dan dari transportasi umum. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 17 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …namun inflasi inti Tekanan harga diperkirakan akan terkendali, dengan dampak terhapdap inflasi inti yang lebih diperkirakan akan ringan. Hal ini karena inflasi inti tidak menghitung barang-barang yang harganya tetap terkendali dikendalikan oleh pemerintah dan flutuatif , serta inti hanya menerima pengaruh tidak langsung dari peningkatan biaya transportasi dan bahan produksi lainnya yang digunakan oleh perusahaan-perusahaan untuk menetapkan harga yang baru. Inflasi inti diperkirakan berada pada kisaran 0,5 poin persentase lebih tinggi pada 2013 dan 2014, dengan asumsi bahwa tidak ada peningkatan proyeksi inflasi yang berkelanjutan (asumsi yang beralasan dengan sifat peningkatan harga yang bersifat satu kali saja, namun tetap membutuhkan kewaspadaan dari pihak Bank Indonesia untuk bertindak bila terdapat perkiraan akan inflasi yang lebih tinggi). Inflasi IHK mengalami Seperti disinggung di atas, peningkatan harga BBM terjadi ketika inflasi IHK sedang perlambatan pada menurun, yang didorong oleh penurunan inflasi bahan pangan, dan inflasi inti yang bulan April dan Mei… terkendali. Inflasi IHK turun menjadi 5,5 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan Mei, sedikit menurun dari 5,6 persen pada bulan April dan nilai tertingginya yang terbaru sebesar 5,9 persen pada bulan Maret. Inflasi keranjang kemiskinan juga mengalami moderasi, menjadi 6,6 persen pada bulan Mei dari 7,0 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan Maret. Selain itu, inflasi inti tetap bertahan rendah dan stabil, pada 4,0 persen tahun-ke-tahun untuk bulan Mei, yang menunjukkan bahwa tekanan harga tetap lunak (Gambar 17), dibantu dengantren harga emas dunia yang mengalami penurunan. Sementara itu, inflasi keseluruhan ekonomi, yang diukur oleh deflator PDB, terus bergerak di bawah nilai inflasi IHK pada kuartal pertama tahun ini, turun menjadi 2,5 persen tahun-ke-tahun. …yang disebabkan Inflasi harga bahan pangan telah menurun pada beberapa kuartal terakhir, menjadi 11,1 oleh penurunan harga persen tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan Mei, karena mulainya musim panen dan pelonggaran bahan pangan sejumlah pembatasan impor pada bulan Maret untuk bahan-bahan pokok, seperti bawang merah dan putih. Inflasi bahan pangan telah meningkat dengan tajam pada 3 bulan pertama tahun 2013, yang mencapai puncaknya pada 12,9 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan Maret, dan mendorong peningkatan dalam inflasi IHK dan keranjang kemiskinan. Sementara pningkatan sebagian disebabkan oleh peningkatan harga bahan pangan yang terjadi sebelum musim panen raya, sedangkan peningkatan harga bahan pangan pokok terdorong oleh banjir besar pada bulan Januari dan perubahan kebijakan perdagangan seperti dibahas pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013. Pelonggaran sebagian kebijakan itu menyebabkan turunnya harga sejumlah bahan pokok, dengan harga bawang putih yang kini berada di bawah harga pada bulan Desember tahun lalu (Gambar 18). Harga bawang merah juga menurun, namun harga cabai belakangan ini mulai meningkat. Harga beras dalam negeri, salah satu bahan pokok lainnya, mencatat penurunan pada beberapa bulan terakhir, walau selisih antara harga dalam dan luar negeri tetap tinggi dan meningkat, karena panen besar juga terjadi pada negara-negara produsen utama dunia yang menurunkan harga beras internasional. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 18 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 17: Inflasi mencatat penurunan pada beberapa Gambar 18: …dengan turunnya harga sejumlah bahan bulan terakhir… pangan pokok (inflasi, persen) (indeks harga, Desember 2012=100) 3 24 300 Bawang Inflasi pangan yoy (RHS) Merah 2 16 250 Inflasi inti yoy Cabai Merah Inflasi IHK yoy (RHS) (RHS) 200 1 8 Cabai Rawit 150 0 0 Bawang Putih Inflasi IHK mom (LHS) 100 -1 -8 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 50 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Pergerakan harga Pertumbuhan harga pada ekonomi secara keseluruhan tetap lambat, dengan pertumbuhan seluruh ekonomi telah deflator PDB mengalami penurunan yang signifikan dari nilai tertingginya sebesar 8,5 persen melambat, sejalan tahun-ke-tahun pada kuartal ketiga 2011, ke tingkat saat ini pada 2,5 persen. Sebagian dari dengan pelemahan penurunan ini mencerminkan perlambatan inflasi konsumen, termasuk pelemahan yang harga ekspor signifikan dalam harga-harga ekspor Indonesia dan sektor pertambangan dan penggalian. Harga-harga ekspor lebih rendah sebesar 1,3 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada kuartal Maret, sementara harga agregat produksi sektor pertambangan dan penggalian lebih rendah sebesar 1,4 persen. Penurunan harga ini bersamaan dengan penurunan yang signifikan dalam harga- harga komoditas utama Indonesia sejak akhir tahun 2011. Terdapat sejumlah tanda-tanda bahwa inflasi seluruh perekonomian dapat berbalik, dengan pertumbuhan berurutan deflator PDB mulai meningkat pada beberapa kuartal terakhir. Selain itu, dengan harga-harga konsumen yang merupakan porsi besar padai deflator PDB, inflasi deflator PDB juga dapat terpengaruh oleh penyesuaian harga BBM. Sejalan dengan itu, inflasi deflator PDB diproyeksikan akan meningkat menjadi 4,3 persen pada tahun 2013 dan 6,3 persen pada tahun 2014. Outlook inflasi Depresiasi pada kurs tukar yang berlanjut dan peningkatan inflasi yang disebabkan reformasi bergantung pada subsidi BBM serta peningkatan upah minimum, merupakan penyebab utama bagi prospek pergerakan kurs tukar peningkatan inflasi. Sejauh ini, pengaruh dari peningkatan kurs tukar dolar AS/Rupiah dan ekspektasi terhadap harga-harga konsumen masih bersifat terbatas. Sebagian alasannya adalah ketika inflasi… melakukan perhitungan bobot perdagangan, depresiasi valas ternyata hanyalah kecil (lihat Kotak 2 pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Desember 2012), dan sesungguhnya kurs tukar efektif telah mengalami apresiasi pada beberapa bulan terakhir, seperti dibahas pada Bagian 3. Namun bila Rupiah mengalami pelemahan lebih lanjut, maka akan terdapat sejumlah risiko kenaikan yang mendorong inflasi. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 19 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …yang meningkat Ekspektasi konsumen akan inflasi jangka pendek telah meningkat pada beberapa bulan dengan signifikan pada terakhir, sejalan dengan antisipasi reformasi subsidi BBM dan peningkatan harganya untuk bulan Mei… jangka pendek. Indeks perkiraan harga 3-bulanan Bank Indonesia mencatat peningkatan yang signifikan pada bulan Mei, dengan naik sebesar 14,5 basis poin yang mencerminkan peningkatan yang besar pada seluruh komponen harga, terutama Transportasi, Komunikasi dan Jasa Keuangan. Sebenarnya adalah biasa terjadi peningkatan yang besar dalam perkiraan harga jangka pendek dengan semakin dekatnya bulan Ramadan, walaupun demikian peningkatan ini lebih besar dari biasanya, yang diakibatkan oleh peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi. Selain itu, indeks perkiraan harga 6-bulanan meningkat sebesar 10,3 basis poin pada bulan Mei, setelah penurunan selama dua bulan sebelumnya. Sejalan dengan peningkatan dalam perkiraan konsumen, pengecer juga memperkirakan tekanan inflasi di depan, dengan indeks perkiraan harga pengecer 3-bulanan dari Bank Indonesia meningkat sebesar 20 basis poin pada bulan April. …dan membutuhkan Dengan adanya kenaikan harga BBM dan kenaikan yang signifikan dalam upah minimum, pemantauan sangatlah penting untuk memantau ekspektasi inflasi dan perilaku penetapan harga selama tahun 2013. Diperkirakan tidak ada peningkatan perkiraan inflasi yang berkelanjutan dari reformasi subsidi BBM ini, karena kenaikan harga yang terjadi bersifat hanya satu kali saja. Selain itu, walau tidak ada indikasi yang pasti bahwa kenaikan upah minimum regional yang besar pada tahun 2013 yang akan secara signifikan mendorong harapan inflasi dan upah yang lebih besar, tekanan upah mungkin menjadi semakin terasa dan mempengaruhi harga-harga dengan berjalannya tahun 2013. Risiko kenaikan terhadap outlook inflasi yang diakibatkan oleh peningkatan biaya ini dimitigasi dengan adanya penurunan permintaan dalam negeri, yang akan membatasi pengaruh tahap kedua dari kenaikan harga BBM atau tekanan upah. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 20 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 6. Defisit neraca berjalan berlanjut walau pertumbuhan impor telah melambat Defisit neraca berjalan Defisit neraca berjalan Gambar 19: Neraca pembayaran kembali ke defisit pada menyempit pada Indonesia menyempit pada kuartal pertama kuartal pertama 2013, kuartal pertama menjadi 5,3 (miliar dolar AS) namun neraca miliar dolar AS, atau 2,4 pembayaran secara persen dari PDB, dari 3,6 16 keseluruhan kembali persen dari PDB pada kuartal 12 mencatat defisit akhir 2012. Hal ini mencerminkan surplus 8 perdagangan barang yang 4 besar, dengan jumlah 1,6 miliar dolar AS. Namun hal 0 ini bukan disebabkan oleh peningkatan ekspor, yang -4 Current account Net direct investment terus turun secara nominal -8 Net portfolio dolar AS, tetapi karena Net other capital lemahnya impor secara -12 Overall balance umum. Neraca keuangan dan -16 Basic balance modal mencatat defisit Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 sebesar 1,4 miliar dolar AS, Catatan: Neraca dasar adalah jumlah neraca berjalan dan komponen defisit yang pertama sejak investasi langsung dari neraca modal dan keuangan kuartal ketiga tahun 2011, Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia karena kuatnya aliran keluar modal bersih ‘investasi lainnya’. Neraca dasar, atau jumlah saldo neraca berjalan dan FDI bersih, turun dari 3,2 miliar dolar AS pada kuartal akhir 2012 namun tetap berada dalam keadaan defisit, pada -1,9 miliar dolar AS, (Gambar 19), yang menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia terus bergantung pada portofolio yang secara potensial lebih rentan gejolak dan aliran masuk modal investasi lainnya untuk membiayai defisit neraca berjalan. Neraca perdagangan Jumlah impor mencatat kontraksi sebesar 1,6 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada kuartal pertama, barang mencatat sementara ekspor mencatat penurunan 6 persen tahun-ke-tahun. Namun data perdagangan pemulihan pada barang pada bulan April menunjukkan bahwa neraca perdagangan barang non-migas kembali kuartal pertama tergelincir ke keadaan defisit pada bulan April karena berlanjutnya pelemahan ekspor, dengan pelemahan sementara impor menguat (Gambar 20). Defisit perdagangan migas yang cukup besar telah impor yang menjadi ciri khas neraca luar negeri Indonesia sejak pertengahan tahun 2012 (Gambar 21), mengimbangi yang meningkat menjadi 3 miliar dolar AS pada kuartal pertama 2013 (dari 2,4 miliar dolar berlanjutnya AS pada kuartal akhir 2012). Hal ini mencerminkan penurunan penerimaan migas, bersama- pelambatan ekspor sama dengan permintaan dalam negeri yang umumnya kuat untuk impor energi. Ekspor Indonesia terus dibebani dengan tidak adanya pemulihan harga global dari komoditas ekspor utamanya. Harga patokan batu bara, ekspor terbesar Indonesia berdasarkan penerimaan, telah melemah karena pelambatan pertumbuhan di Cina, yang merupakan pembeli terbesar batu bara Indonesia, dan juga kemungkinan penetapan larangan impor batu bara berkualitas rendah oleh Cina (Kotak 1). J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 21 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 20: Surplus perdagangan non-migas naik pada Gambar 21: …sementara defisit perdagangan migas yang kuartal 1/2013, sebelum kembali ke defisit kecil pada April… besar telah tercatat sejak pertengahan tahun 2012 (neraca perdagangan non-migas, miliar dolar AS, dan rata-rata bergerak 3- (neraca perdagangan migas, miliar USD, dan rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan bulanan perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam ekspor dan impor non-migas, perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam ekspor dan impor migas, persen) persen) 4.5 100 4.5 100 Neraca (kiri) 3.0 50 3.0 50 Impor (kanan) Impor (kanan) 1.5 0 1.5 0 Ekspor (RHS) 0.0 -50 0.0 -50 Ekspor (kanan) Neraca (kiri) -1.5 -100 -1.5 -100 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sementara penurunan Penurunan impor pada kuartal pertama disebabkan oleh penurunan impor barang konsumsi, nominal impor bersifat barang setengah jadi dan modal secara keseluruhan (Gambar 22). Beban terbesar datang dari luas, impor barang- penurunan impor barang modal, yang merupakan sekitar 16 persen dari jumlah impor dan barang telah menurun turun sebesar 19,2 persen (perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan, dengan sangat tajam April) sejalan dengan penurunan yang belakangan terjadi pada investasi dalam negeri. Impor barang konsumsi juga menurun pada kuartal itu menjadi 10,3 persen lebih rendah (perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan, April). Impor barang-barang setengah jadi, yang merupakan sekitar 77 persen dari jumlah impor, juga melemah. Penerimaan ekspor Penerimaan ekspor Indonesia terus melemah (Gambar 23), dibebani dengan tidak adanya tetap berada di bawah pemulihan harga-harga dunia untuk sebagian besar ekspor komoditas utamanya. Nilai tekanan... nominal dolar AS untuk ekspor migas turun sebesar 24,1 persen (perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan, April), sementara ekspor pertambangan dan mineral turun 1 persen (perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan, April). Di antara ekspor komoditas utama Indonesia, hanya gas alam (sekitar 10 persen dari jumlah ekspor) yang mencatat pemulihan yang kuat dalam harga-harga global, dengan harga acuan LNG Asia meningkat sekitar 11 persen selama tahun 2013 hingga bulan Mei. Pada bulan- bulan berikut, ekspor batu bara Indonesia mugkin menghadapi tantangan tambahan dengan penurunan permintaan dari Cina (Kotak 1). J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 22 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …membuat kinerjanya Jumlah ekspor Indonesia lebih rendah dibanding negara-negara pembandingnya yang setara berkurang karena di wilayah yang sama (Gambar 24), yang mencerminkan bobot komoditas yang lebih besar pelemahan komoditas, dalam susunan ekspor Indonesia (61 persen). Ekspor dari Malaysia, yang juga relatif sementara penerimaan bergantung kepada komoditas (komoditas merupakan 37 persen dari ekspor, yang hampir 23 ekspor barang persen adalah BBM) juga lebih rendah di wilayah yang sama, dengan mencatat kontraksi manufaktur lebih sebesar 5,9 persen tahun-ke-tahun dalam ekspor (perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam rata-rata bertahan namun bergerak 3-bulanan, April). Dibanding dengan ekspor komoditas, ekspor manufaktur mungkin menghadapi Indonesia bertahan dengan relatif baik pada beberapa bulan terakhir, dan pada bulan April tantangan cenderung datar dibanding lajunya pada tahun yang lalu (meningkat 0,2 persen, perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan). Namun data terakhir menunjukkan pelambatan jangka pendek dalam pertumbuhan ekspor lintas wilayah, yang mencerminkan resesi yang semakin mendalam lintas Eropa, dan juga pelambatan pertumbuhan di Cina; pertumbuhan ekspor manufaktur Thailand melambat ke 3,1 persen tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan April, dari 8,1 persen pada bulan Maret (perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan), sementara ekspor Cina melambat dengan tajam pada bulan Mei setelah adanya penyelidikan akan tuduhan tagihan ekspor yang terlalu besar untuk mendorong aliran masuk modal yang gelap, yang diperkirakan akan memperbesar data ekspor resmi pada bulan-bulan awal tahun 2013 (Gambar 25). Gambar 22: Barang modal memimpin pelambatan impor Gambar 23: …sementara penerimaan ekspor Indonesia yang luas… masih tertekan (rata-rata bergerak 3 bulanan, pertumbuhan nilai impor tahun-ke-tahun, (rata-rata bergerak 3 bulanan, pertumbuhan nilai ekspor tahun-ke-tahun, persen) persen) Intermediate Capital Agriculture & forestry Manufacturing Consumer Total imports Mining & minerals Oil & gas 60 Total exports 105 40 70 20 35 0 0 -20 -35 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 23 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 24: Ekspor Indonesia lebih rendah dibanding Gambar 25: Ekspor manufaktur mendatar, di tengah tanda- negara tetangganya yang sebanding tanda pelemahan pertumbuhan ekspor manufaktur di Asia (rata-rata bergerak 3 bulanan, pertumbuhan nilai ekspor tahun-ke-tahun, (rata-rata bergerak 3 bulanan, pertumbuhan nilai impor tahun-ke-tahun, persen) persen) China Indonesia Japan China Indonesia Japan Malaysia Thailand Vietnam 75 Malaysia Thailand Vietnam 75 50 50 25 25 0 0 -25 -25 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Kotak 1: Usulan pelarangan impor batu bara berkualitas rendah oleh Cina membawa risiko terhadap ekspor batu bara Indonesia Badan Energi Nasional Cina telah mengusulkan pelarangan impor Gambar 26: Batu bara berkualitas rendah merupakan batu bara berkualitas rendah, yang bila ditetapkan, dapat membawa 20 persen dari ekspor batu bara Indonesia dan dapat dampak yang mengganggu ekspor batu bara Indonesia. Menurut terpengaruh oleh pelarangan di Cina laporan pasar, larangan itu diperkirakan akan berlaku untuk batu (bagian dari jumlah ekspor batu bara, persen) bara dengan nilai kalori kurang dari 4.500 kcal per kilogram, dengan 80 analis pasar mengatakan bahwa sekitar 10 persen batu bara (70 mt) Indonesia akan terpengaruh. 4 60 Batu bara merupakan 14 persen dari jumlah ekspor Indonesia, dengan batu bara berkualitas rendah (dengan nilai kalori kurang dari 5.100 kcal per kg) merupakan seperlima dari seluruh ekspor 40 batu bara Indonesia, menurut data pemerintah tahun 2011 (Gambar 26). Cina mengimpor 90 juta ton batu bara termal dari (21 mt) 20 (13 mt) Indonesia pada tahun 2012, yang setengahnya adalah batu bara dengan kualitas yang lebih rendah. Sementara itu produksi batu (1 mt) bara Indonesia diperkirakan akan mencapai 391 juta ton pada 2013, - naik dari 384 juta ton pada 2012, menurut data Pemerintah.5 Low Medium High Very high (< 5,100 (5,100-6,100 (6,100-7,100 (> 7,100 Bila pelarangan itu berlaku, para produsen batu bara Indonesia kkcal/kg) kkcal/kg) kcal/kg) kcal/kg) akan mencoba untuk mengalihkan produksi mereka ke pasar-pasar utama lainnya, terutama India. Pelarangan apapun akan impor batu bara rendah kalori akan menambah tekanan turun pada harga acuan Catatan: Label grafik batang merujuk pada volume ekspor batu bara, yang telah melemah karena keprihatinan akan dalam juta ton (MT) Sumber: Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral; pelambatan dalam laju kegiatan ekonomi dan permintaan energi di perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Cina, dan juga percepatan ekspor batu bara AS yang telah diganti oleh gas alam. Harga acuan batu bara Indonesia telah turun 6 persen sejak bulan Maret menjadi 85 dolar AS per ton. 4 Platts, ‘Detil pelarangan impor Cina akan batu bara termal rendah’, 22 Mei 2013. 5 http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/indonesia-plans-coal-power-projects-as-Cina-import-curbs- loom/ J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 24 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Pada kuartal pertama, Beralih ke neraca modal dan keuangan, defisit neraca keuangan dan modal sebesar 1,4 miliar neraca modal dan dolar AS pada kuartal pertama didorong oleh derasnya aliran keluar modal bersih ‘investasi keuangan mencatat lain’ sebesar 7,7 miliar dolar AS. Hal ini mencerminkan peningkatan penempatan dana di luar defisitnya yang negeri yang mengikuti peningkatan cadangan devisa antar bank-bank dalam negeri sebagai pertama sejak kuartal akibat dari langkah BI untuk secara langsung memenuhi kebutuhan valuta asing BUMN ketiga 2011… energi pada kuartal pertama. BI menurunkan intervensinya sewaktu tekanan terhadap Rupiah menurun dari bulan Februari hingga akhir Mei, yang mengakibatkan penarikan dalam simpanan valas swasta pada beberapa bulan terakhir, walau intervensi diperkirakan akan kembali meningkat dalam beberapa minggu ke depan karena semakin meningkatnya tekanan depresiasi Rupiah. …dengan kuatnya Derasnya aliran masuk modal portofolio sebesar 2,9 miliar dolar AS tercatat pada kuartal aliran masuk modal pertama, terutama mengalir ke dalam ekuitas. Aliran masuk portofolio bulanan tetap tinggi portofolio dan selama bulan April, yang didorong oleh kuatnya permintaan asing untuk obligasi pemerintah pelambatan aliran Indonesia, dengan aliran masuk modal bersih yang berjumlah 1,8 miliar dolar AS. Aliran masuk FDI masuk penanaman modal langsung melambat menjadi 3,4 miliar dolar AS (dari 4,5 miliar dolar AS pada kuartal akhir tahun 2012), sejalan dengan lebih lemahnya investasi dalam negeri. Aliran keluar modal Namun seperti disinggung di atas, koreksi yang belakangan terjadi di pasar keuangan portofolio investasi Indonesia telah mencatat percepatan aliran keluar modal portofolio investasi asing sejak asing yang besar pertengahan bulan Mei. Secara bersama-sama aliran keluar modal investasi dalam ekuitas dan tercatat pada beberapa obligasi pemerintah telah berjumlah 3,6 miliar dolar AS sejak awal bulan Mei, dengan aliran minggu terakhir modal asing yang masuk ke ekuitas Indonesia membalik seluruh jumlah aliran masuk bersih pada paruh pertama kuartal kedua menjadi datar pada kuartal itu, sementara jumlah aliran masuk bersih ke obligasi pemerintah selama kuartal tersebut tetap positif pada 0,4 miliar dolar AS, mengikuti aliran masuk modal yang sangat kuat pada bulan April. Reformasi subsidi Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa peningkatan dalam harga BBM bersubsidi akan BBM diperkirakan menurunkan pertumbuhan dalam jumlah impor BBM, mempersempit defisit neraca berjalan akan memangkas sebesar 0,1 hingga 0,2 poin persentase dari PDB, dibanding bila tidak ada reformasi BBM. peningkatan impor Walau lebih sulit untuk dikuantisir, penurunan subsidi BBM juga akan diterima secara positif BBM oleh investor asing langsung dan portofolio di Indonesia, sehingga mendukung aliran masuk modal untuk jangka yang lebih panjang. Namun peningkatan inflasi sementara yang disebabkan oleh reformasi tersebut dapat menambah tekanan depresiasi terhadap Rupiah untuk jangka pendek. Defisit neraca berjalan Melihat ke depan, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit neraca berjalan akan mencapai Indonesia diperkirakan jumlah 25,2 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2013, atau 2,7 persen dari PDB. Hal ini akan berada pada menunjukkan perkiraan defisit neraca berjalan 2013 yang secara umum sejalan dengan tahun tingkat yang sama 2012 secara bagian dari PDB, sebesar 2,7 persen dari PDB. Proyeksi ini mencerminkan dengan tahun 2012 gabungan dari semakin meningkatnya ekspor dan penurunan pertumbuhan impor, termasuk yang disebabkan oleh reformasi subsidi BBM. Neraca berjalan diproyeksikan akan menyempit menjadi 2,1 persen dari PDB pada tahun 2014 dengan semakin pulihnya ekspor. Keseluruhan neraca pembayaran diperkirakan akan mencatat defisit sebesar 4,8 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2013, melihat dari hasil realisasi kuartal pertama, antisipasi defisit neraca berjalan setahun penuh, dan penurunan aliran masuk modal ke pasar-pasar berkembang (emerging market) yang belakangan terjadi, termasuk ke Indonesia. Seperti disinggung pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013, pelemahan dalam dinamika neraca pembayaran Indonesia dan tekanan depresiasi Rupiah yang berlanjut telah terjadi dengan latar belakang peningkatan pembiayaan luar negeri bruto pada beberapa tahun terakhir, yang terutama di dorong oleh peningkatan hutang luar negeri swasta bruto (lihat Kotak 2). Kemampuan Indonesia untuk menjaga kuatnya aliran masuk FDI, menarik investasi modal portofolio yang berpotensi volatil, dan mengelola penyesuaian yang dibutuhkan untuk menjamin neraca dari posisi luar negerinya akan tetap menjadi fokus. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 25 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 2: Tingkat hutang eksternal tetap rendah namun risiko likuiditas telah meningkat Tingkat hutang luar negeri Indonesia telah meningkat sejak tahun 2006, hampir mencapai dua kali lipat dari 133 miliar menjadi 257 miliar dolar AS pada bulan April 2013. Sejalan dengan peningkatan gejolak pasar yang tercatat selama periode itu dan sejak krisis keuangan dunia tahun 2008-9, termasuk pada kuartal terakhir bagi pasar-pasar berkembang, peningkatan hutang luar negeri secara absolut ini membutuhkan penelitian yang lebih cermat untuk mengukur kerentanan Indonesia terhadap kejutan yang berasal dari luar negeri. Pada awalnya, perlu dicatat bahwa keberlanjutan posisi hutang luar negeri Indonesia adalah tanpa keraguan, menurun, sesuai dengan laporan terakhir IMF (tahun 2012) Pasal IV, sebagai contoh, yang menemukan bahwa “…rasio hutang luar negeri Indonesia diperkirakan akan terus menurun, dan tetap berada pada tingkat yang dapat dikelola, menurut semua skenario kejutan yang standar.” Sementara jumlah hutang luar negeri (yang dimiliki oleh pihak asing) telah meningkat secara absolut, jumlahnya sebagai bagian dari PDB mencatat tren yang menurun, dari 47,7 persen dari PDB pada tahun 2005 menjadi 29,7 persen dari PDB pada akhir tahun 2012 (Gambar 27). Penurunan tingkat hutang luar negeri ini didorong oleh penurunan tajam dalam hutang luar negeri pemerintah, yang turun dari 28,4 persen menjadi 14,8 persen dari PDB. Sebaliknya, rasio hutang luar negeri sektor swasta telah menurun menjadi 12 persen pada tahun 2010 namun meningkat kembali menjadi 15 persen pada akhir 2012. Hutang swasta kini sebesar 50,2 persen dari jumlah hutang luar negeri per akhir April, meningkat dari 40,3 persen pada tahun 2005. Berlanjutnya peningkatan hutang swasta dari luar negeri pada beberapa tahun terakhir telah dipimpin oleh perusahaan-perusahaan dari beberapa sektor, terutama yang bergerak dalam bidang pengeboran, listrik, gas dan air, dan keuangan, leasing dan jasa bisnis. Pinjaman dari sektor keuangan, yang didorong oleh joint venture dan bank-bank asing, merupakan sebagian besar dari peningkatan hutang tersebut. Hutang luar negeri sektor keuangan meningkat hampir tiga kali lipat, dari 12,9 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2006 menjadi 35,2 miliar dolar AS pada akhir bulan April 2013, atau 27,3 persen dari jumlah hutang luar negeri (Gambar 28), melampaui hutang sektor manufaktur (yang turun menjadi 20,3 persen dari 32,4 persen dari bagian keseluruhan). Perusahaan-perusahaan dalam pertambangan dan pengeboran merupakan sumber kegiatan paling aktif berikutnya dalam pinjaman luar negeri, dengan peningkatan jumlah hutang empat kali lipat selama periode tahun 2006-2012 dan merupakan 16,8 persen dari jumlah hutang swasta dari luar negeri per akhir bulan April 2013 (Gambar 28). Akhirnya, hutang luar negeri perusahaan-perusahaan pada sektor utilitas telah meningkat dari 6,5 miliar menjadi 16,3 miliar dolar AS. Metriks standar menunjukkan peningkatan risiko likuiditas yang berkaitan dengan posisi hutang eksternal Indonesia. Hutang luar negeri jangka pendek (per jatuh tempo yang tersisa) telah meningkat secara signifikan sejak tahun 2006 dan kini menjadi 21,7 persen dari jumlah hutang, naik dari 15,6 persen pada tahun 2006, yang umumnya disebabkan oleh peningkatan hutang luar negeri dari sektor swasta, yang kini sebesar 72,6 persen dari jumlah hutang luar negeri jangka pendek, naik dari 59,4 persen pada tahun 2006. Rasio hutang swasta luar negeri terhadap ekspor telah terus meningkat dari 9,9 persen menjadi 17,8 persen selama periode tersebut, walau rasio ini juga terpengaruh oleh penurunan ekspor sejak tahun 2011. Hingga bulan April 2013, jumlah hutang luar negeri jangka pendek setara dengan setengah dari jumlah cadangan devisa Indonesia (Gambar 27). Persyaratan pembiayaan jasa hutang luar negeri Indonesia juga telah meningkat, naik sebagai bagian dari ekspor dari seperempat pada tahun 2007 menjadi lebih dari tiga per empat pada tahun 2012 (Gambar 27) Juga terdapat peningkatan kebergantungan terhadap hutang dalam dolar AS, yang kini merupakan 88 persen dari jumlah hutang swasta dari luar negeri, dibanding hutang dalam yen Jepang. Karenanya, sementara sebagian perusahaan menerima lindung nilai alami yang melekat pada dolar AS, seperti pada sektor pertambangan dan pengeboran, tingginya konsentrasi hutang luar negeri dalam dolar AS dapat meningkatkan kerentanan yang lebih besar bila kurs tukar dolar AS mencatat apresiasi yang tajam. Sejumlah faktor-faktor memitigasi risiko-risiko yang dapat dihadapi Indonesia dari peningkatan penggunaan hutang luar negeri oleh perbankan dan perusahaan. Pertama, pada sektor non-keuangan, sebagian besar pinjaman berasal dari perusahaan induk atau pemberi pinjaman terafiliasi dan hutang antar perusahaan demikian dapat memiliki kerentanan yang lebih rendah terhadap risiko tidak diperpanjangnya hutang, dan merupakan satu komponen dari kuatnya peningkatan aliran FDI ke Indonesia pada beberapa tahun terakhir. Sesungguhnya data statistik resmi nampaknya mungkin merendahkan jumlah bagian hutang antar perusahaan dari jumlah keseluruhan hutang luar negeri, karena hubungan antar perusahaan terafiliasi di dalam dan luar negeri tidaklah selalu transparan. Selain itu, sejak tahun 2011, menurut Bank Indonesia, ketaatan akan persyaratan pelaporan hutang luar negeri juga telah meningkat, memperjelas hutang swasta dari luar negeri di data statistik resmi dan mempersulit untuk menafsirkan peningkatan tren dalam persediaan utang dan biaya jasa. Dengan berjalannya waktu, peningkatan yang berlangsung dalam cakupan statistika akan mendorong peningkatan pemantauan dinamika hutang swasta Indonesia dari luar negeri, termasuk pada tingkat yang lebih mikro; 100 perusahaan teratas dalam peringkat hutang luar negeri merupakan 65 persen dari tingkat paparan hutang secara keseluruhan. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 26 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 27: Metriks solvabilitas hutang telah meningkat, Gambar 28: Hutang swasta dari luar negeri mencatat namun demikian juga sejumlah indikator risiko likuiditas distribusi yang merata pada seluruh sektor ekonomi (persen) (hutang swasta luar negeri hingga April 2013, persen dari keseluruhan) Private debt/GDP Agriculture, 80 80 forestry, fishing Public debt/GDP Mining and drilling 70 Short-term debt/reserves 70 Finansial 4.8 Debt service/exports Manufacturing 60 60 16.8 50 50 Electricity, gas and water works 20.3 Housing and 40 40 27.3 building 30 30 12.6 Trading, hotel and restaurants 20 20 5.3 Transport and 8.1 communcation 10 10 3.8 Services Non-finansial 0 0 Other sectors 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Catatan: *data 2013 per April 2013 dan hanya untuk hutang/ Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia cadangan jangka pendek Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 27 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 7. Risiko terhadap outlook tetap tinggi dari dalam dan luar negeri Prospek pertumbuhan Perkiraan dasar (base case) Bank Dunia bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia adalah menghadapi risiko… pelambatan yang hanya kecil pada tahun 2013, dari 6,2 persen pada 2012 menjadi 5,9 persen pada 2013, sebelum kembali meningkat pada tahun 2014. Risiko utama dari prospek ini adalah terjadinya penurunan, dengan berlanjutnya pelemahan yang kecil dalam momentum pertumbuhan dalam negeri dan Indonesia mengalami penurunan yang lebih besar. …dengan reformasi Peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi, sementara dibutuhkan secara fiskal dan merupakan BBM bersubsidi perkembangan yang positif dalam memenuhi sasaran pembangunan jangka menengah membawa tantangan Indonesia, membawa tantangan kepada pengelolaan ekonomi makro jangka pendek. bagi pengelolaan Peningkatan harga BBM pada awalnya akan mendorong peningkatan harga satu kali saja. ekonomi makro jangka Tekanan harga yang mendasari diperkirakan akan tetap terjaga, namun mungkin dibutuhkan pendek… pengetatan moneter yang lebih erat bila peningkatan inflasi sementara menunjukkan tanda- tanda perkiraan inflasi yang lebih tinggi, dan jika Rupiah tetap berada di bawah tekanan, sehingga memperlambat laju pertumbuhan. Daya tahan konsumsi masyarakat, sumber tunggal terbesar di dalam ekonomi, akan diuji pada sisa tahun 2013 dengan peningkatan inflasi sementara tersebut. …sementara Melemahnya pertumbuhan investasi, yang dimulai pada pertengahan tahun 2012, tampaknya pertumbuhan investasi mencerminkan dampak tunda dari pelemahan harga komoditas sejak pertengahan tahun terus melambat 2011. Kondisi sektor komoditas mempengaruhi investasi secara langsung, seperti terlihat dari penurunan tajam dalam investasi asing dalam bidang transportasi, permesinan dan peralatan, yang merupakan masukan utama dalam kegiatan yang berkaitan dengan komoditas. Kekokohan permintaan komoditas secara tidak langsung juga mendorong permintaan investasi dengan mempengaruhi pendapatan ekspor, konsumsi rumah tangga (melalui penerimaan rumah tangga, terutama pada daerah-daerah yang mana produksi komoditas merupakan hal yang penting), dan juga mempengaruhi ketersediaan pendanaan investasi (melalui keuntungan perusahaan). Dengan rumitnya persyaratan perdagangan dan pengaruh penerimaan tersebut, kecenderungan membengkaknya kebanyakan proyek-proyek investasi, dan ketidakpastian yang mengelilingi harga-harga komoditas internasional, lintasan yang akan dilalui oleh investasi sulit untuk diperkirakan dan merupakan sumber ketidakpastian dalam proyeksi pertumbuhan. Selain itu, jika penurunan harga komoditas internasional terus berlanjut, investasi dapat membawa beban yang lebih besar dari perkiraan terhadap pertumbuhan. Terdapat Seperti dibahas pada laporan Bank Dunia tentang Prospek Ekonomi Dunia pada bulan Juni, ketidakpastian baru risiko yang mengikuti penurunan tajam dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia, seperti yang yang berkaitan dengan timbul dari pembaruan tekanan pasar keuangan pada zona Euro, telah melemah sejak permintaan luar Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013. Namun momentum pelambatan pada sejumlah ekonomi negeri… berpenghasilan menengah dan penurunan tajam yang tercatat pada pasar-pasar berkembang (emerging market) pada beberapa bulan terakhir menambah kepada ketidakpastian tentang jalur lintasan ekonomi dunia. Penurunan lanjutan dalam harga komoditas dunia membawa risiko penurunan yang khusus dan signifikan terhadap prospek ekonomi Indonesia. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 28 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dengan pasar Tantangan kondisi pendanaan Gambar 29: Cadangan devisa Indonesia cukup besar keuangan Indonesia luar negeri telah meningkat. demikian juga paparan risiko luar negerinya yang menghadapi Pasar ekuitas dan obligasi (neraca, miliar dolar AS) tantangan dari Indonesia tetap relatif rentan Sep 2008 May 2010 pelemahan dunia akan terhadap berlanjutnya Non-resident SBI permintaan bagi aset penjualan aset-aset pasar holdings Sep 2011 May 2013 pasar berkembang… berkembang dibanding Non-resident local gov. negara tetangga securities holdings pembandingnya, dengan besarnya keberadaan investasi Non-resident equity asing dibanding ukuran pasar holdings ekuitas dan obligasi dalam negeri, walau cadangan devisa Short-term external debt Indonesia masih cukup besar (Gambar 29). Sementara pengaruh kesejahteraan Total FX Reserves langsung dari penurunan harga ekuitas dan aset-aset 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 lainnya terhadap keputusan Catatan: Data hutang luar negeri hingga April 2013, semua angka konsumsi dan investasi lain hingga akhir bulan Mei rumah tangga dan perusahaan Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia tampaknya hanya akan kecil dengan rendahnya paparan langsungnya terhadap aset-aset tersebut secara agregat, terutama dengan dampak pengimbang dari kuatnya pertumbuhan harga properti (suatu sektor yang memiliki paparan yang lebih tidak langsung terhadap kondisi luar negeri), tingkat keyakinan masyarakat dan usaha dapat terpengaruh, dengan dampak yang mengalir ke konsumsi dan investasi. Keyakinan investor lokal, dan alokasi aset-aset lintas batasnya, juga tetap menjadi kunci bagi prospek ini. …dan menyoroti Peristiwa-peristiwa yang belakangan terjadi dan prospek dasar (base case) bagi kuartal-kuartal kebutuhan untuk berikut menunjukkan bahwa penetapan kebijakan Indonesia tampaknya harus agak membuat penyesuaian disesuaikan terhadap kondisi ekonomi yang lebih rendah, dan potensi kondisi pembiayaan kebijakan ekonomi luar negeri yang lebih sulit. Keputusan Bank Indonesia untuk meningkatkan tingkat suku makro yang bunga BI dan suku bunga overnight pada awal bulan Juni, dan peningkatan harga BBM berkelanjutan bersubsidi, merupakan contoh-contoh kebijakan penyesuaian terhadap perubahan keadaan, yang dapat membantu mengamankan stabilitas makro, untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ke depan. Penyesuaian lanjutan terhadap kurs tukar Rupiah secara bertahap, sesuai dengan perkembangan pada kondisi eksternal Indonesia, juga diperlukan. Menjaga pendekatan yang fleksibel, tanpa kejutan dan dikomunikasikan dengan baik pada penyusunan kebijakan, dan juga melanjutkan kemajuan dalam penerapan kebijakan dan peningkatan lingkungan peraturan, akan menjadi kunci bagi Indonesia untuk menjalani masa yang penuh dengan tantangan ekonomi dari dalam maupun luar negeri. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 29 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Walau masih terlalu Kebakaran hutan dan gambut yang kini terjadi di Sumatra, yang menyebabkan asap tebal di dini untuk Sumatra dan Kalimantan (dan juga negara-negara tetangga), menambah risiko penurunan mengkuantisir prospek ekonomi. Tampaknya akan timbul biaya ekonomi, kesehatan dan lingkungan yang biayanya, asap yang signifikan terhadap Indonesia yang berasal dari gangguan usaha, kehilangan produktivitas, disebabkan oleh pengiriman tenaga untuk menangani kebakaran (termasuk satuan khusus yang ditugaskan), kebakaran hutan dan dampak limpahan (spillover) ekonomi tambahan dari negara tetangga dan mitra perdagangan gambut di Sumatra yang terpengaruh, gangguan kesehatan dan degradasi aset hutan dan tanah. Jumlah biaya dan adalah tambahan risiko terhadap prospek ekonomi secara keseluruhan belum diketahui, namun diperkirakan tantangan jangka berada pada kisaran miliaran dolar. Peristiwa timbulnya asap pada tahun 1997/98 pendek diperkirakan telah menimbulkan kerugian sebesar 9 miliar dolar AS bagi Asia Tenggara (Applegate, 2006) dan 6,3 miliar dolar AS hanya untuk Indonesia (menurut Bank Pembangunan Asia). Saat ini, dengan adanya industri pertanian dan pariwisata yang lebih maju dan lebih padatnya populasi penduduk di daerah-daerah itu, kerugian ekonomi dapat berjumlah lebih besar. Dari sisi lingkungan hidup, kebakaran itu berpotensi menghapus sebagian besar kemajuan yang baru-baru ini dicapai dalam mitigasi perubahan iklim di sektor kehutanan. Selain itu, kebakaran dan asap tersebut menciptakan ketegangan dengan negara-negara tetangga yang penting, mengganggu penyusun kebijakan dan menimbulkan publisitas internasional yang negatif. Kenyataan bahwa hal ini merupakan kejadian musiman yang menimbulkan biaya yang besar menyoroti tantangan pemerintahan yang signifikan dalam sektor sumber daya alam. Walau penggunaan api telah dilarang (pada tahun 2001, Indonesia menetapkan Peraturan Pemerintah [PP No 4/2001] yang melarang semua penggunaan api ke hutan dan tanah), api masih dengan sengaja digunakan untuk membersihkan hutan, terutama pada daerah-daerah konsensi perkebunan kelapa sawit dan tanaman industri. Penegakkan UU yang ada dan praktik penggunaan tanah yang lebih baik membutuhkan usaha bersama dari masyarakat dan sektor swasta, termasuk perusahaan perkebunan, yang kebanyakan berasal dari Malaysia dan Singapura. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 30 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia B. Beberapa Perkembangan Terkini Perekonomian Indonesia 1. Mencermati paket kompensasi subsidi BBM Untuk menghindari Pengurangan subsidi BBM diperkirakan akan meningkatkan inflasi, terutama yang didorong dampak negatif dari oleh peningkatan pada harga-harga BBM, bahan pangan dan biaya transportasi di seluruh peningkatan harga Indonesia, seperti dibahas pada sub-bagian 0 pada Bagian A. Karena biaya transportasi dan BBM terhadap rakyat bahan pangan merupakan bagian yang besar dari pengeluaran rumah tangga miskin dan miskin, Pemerintah rentan, peningkatan apapun pada biaya-biaya tersebut hampir pasti akan membawa dampak akan berinvestasi pada yang negatif. Proyeksi Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa, tanpa kompensasi, peningkatan paket kompensasi harga BBM (menjadi Rp 6.500 per liter untuk premium dan Rp 5.500 per liter untuk solar) dengan jangkauan akan memperlambat penurunan tingkat kemiskinan; tanpa kompensasi, tingkat kemiskinan yang luas… resmi akan turun dari 12 persen pada bulan Maret 2012 menjadi 10,5 persen pada bulan Maret 2014, menunjukkan laju pengentasan kemiskinan yang lebih lambat dibanding pencapaian pada beberapa tahun terakhir. Sebaliknya, dengan kebijakan kompensasi jangka pendek berupa bantuan langsung tunai kepada rumah tangga miskin dan rentan selama empat bulan, proyeksi menunjukkan bahwa penurunan tingkat kemiskinan akan lebih signifikan, menjadi 9,4 persen pada bulan Maret 2014. Paket kompensasi yang disertakan di dalam APBN-P diharapkan akan memainkan peran yang penting dalam membantu Indonesia untuk melanjutkan penurunan tingkat kemiskinan walau dengan harga BBM bersubsidi yang lebih tinggi, dan juga menjadi langkah perluasan yang signifikan dari perlindungan sosial untuk jangka waktu yang lebih panjang. Bagian ini akan meninjau masing-masing komponen dari keseluruhan paket kompensasi Pemerintah, dan menilai sejauh mana program-program tersebut diharapkan akan memberikan bantuan yang memadai, tepat waktu dan efektif untuk melindungi rumah tangga miskin dan rentan yang paling tidak mampu untuk menghadapi dampak negatif dari kenaikan harga BBM.6 ini diambil dari penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Bank Dunia terhadap program-program 6 Bagian bantuan sosial Indonesia. Seluruh laporan penelitian tersedia pada tautan www.worldbank.org/id/poverty. (Lihat Bank Dunia, 2012. Protecting Poor and Vulnerable Households) J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 31 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …untuk membantu Untuk menghindari dampak negatif dari peningkatan harga BBM terhadap rumah tangga rumah tangga pada miskin dan rentan, dibutuhkan dua jenis respon. Pertama, dibutuhkan upaya perlindungan jangka pendek dan sementara dengan jangka waktu yang pendek untuk melindungi rumah tangga dari dampak memperluas sistem inflasi yang langsung muncul dari peningkatan harga BBM. Kedua, respon jangka panjang perlindungan sosial dapat membantu dan mendukung upaya pengentasan kemiskinan yang sedang berlangsung – pada jangka panjang terutama dengan menargetkan rumah tangga yang paling miskin – dan menangani kesenjangan yang meningkat. Sebagai cerminan dari kedua jenis respon tersebut, Pemerintah Indonesia menyiapkan paket kompensasi di dalam APBN-P 2013 yang belum lama ini disetujui oleh DPR. Paket yang berjumlah Rp 29,05 triliun atau sekitar 74 persen dari jumlah penghematan subsidi BBM tersebut memiliki dua komponen utama, yaitu: a) Program Kompensasi Khusus, dan b) Program Percepatan dan Perluasan Perlindungan Sosial (P4S). Gambar 30: Penghematan dapat mendukung sejumlah Tabel 7: Kompensasi menjangkau 15,5 juta rumah tangga program (alokasi anggaran per program, Rupiah) (bagian penghematan yang dialokasikan ke program, persen) Nilai Komponen (triliun Rp) Infrastruktur dasar; 25% BLSM (@ Rp 150,000, untuk 4 bulan, bagi 9,3 BLSM; 32% 15,5 juta rumah tangga) PKH 0,7 Raskin 4,3 Conditional BSM 7,5 cash transfer Infrastruktur dasar 7,25 (PKH); 2% Jumlah paket kompensasi 29,05 Scholarship Rice for the for the poor poor (BSM); (Raskin); 26% 15% Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan a. Program-program jangka pendek untuk melindungi rumah tangga yang miskin dan rentan Program-program Program Kompensasi Khusus mencakup beberapa upaya sementara Pemerintah untuk jangka pendek untuk melindungi rumah tangga miskin dan rentan dari guncangan inflasi yang berasal dari meredam dampak peningkatan harga BBM, yaitu: langsung terhadap a. Pertama, Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat (BLSM) sejumlah Rp rumah tangga miskin 150.000/rumah tangga/bulan selama empat bulan akan diberikan kepada 15,5 juta telah memicu rumah tangga dalam dua kali pembayaran. kontroversi… b. Kedua, selain 15 kg jatah beras untuk setiap rumah tangga miskin perbulan yang dilakukan melalui program Beras Miskin (Raskin), Pemerintah memberikan tambahan 45 kg beras bersubsidi kepada rumah tangga yang menerima BLSM. Pembagiannya dalam karung berukuran 15 kg sekali setiap bulan selama tiga bulan. c. Ketiga, sejumlah penghematan akan dialokasikan kepada tiga program infrastruktur jangka pendek, yaitu: Percepatan Perluasan Pembangunan Infrastruktur Permukiman (P4-IP), Percepatan Perluasan Pembangunan Sistem Penyediaan Air Minum (P4-SPAM) dan Percepatan Perluasan Pembangunan Infrastruktur Sumber Daya Air (P4-ISDA). Sebagian besar kontroversi yang melingkupi rancangan upaya kompensasi tersebut terpusat pada usulan penggunaan BLSM sebagai alat untuk melindungi rumah tangga miskin dan J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 32 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia rentan dari dampak kenaikan harga BBM. Para penentang menganggap bahwa bantuan langsung tunai tersebut dapat dengan mudah dipolitisasi dan digunakan sebagai alat bagi partai-partai politik untuk mengumpulkan dukungan bagi pemilihan umum tahun 2014. Selain itu, terdapat banyak kekhawatiran mengenai efektivitas penggunaan bantuan langsung tunai untuk melindungi rakyat miskin. Para penentang menganggap program tersebut tidaklah efektif; cenderung akan menimbulkan pemborosan, tidak sampai kepada mereka yang memang membutuhkan perlindungan, mendorong kemalasan pada orang miskin atau menciptakan kebergantungan yang lebih besar terhadap negara. …namun penelitian Penelitian mengenai pemberian bantuan langsung tunai di Indonesia dapat memberikan menunjukkan bahwa penjelasan terhadap debat terkait efektivitas program BLSM.7 Setelah peningkatan harga bantuan langsung BBM pada tahun 2005, Pemerintah meluncurkan program Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT), tunai merupakan cara yang memberikan dana kompensasi tunai dengan jumlah keseluruhan Rp 1.200.000 ke 19 yang efektif untuk juta rumah tangga penerima, terbagi dalam empat kali pembayaran. Program itu dijalankan memberikan kembali pada tahun 2008 ketika harga BBM kembali dinaikkan, dan 18,4 juta rumah tangga perlindungan yang menerima kompensasi sejumlah Rp 900.000 yang terbagi dalam tiga kali pembayaran. Melalui cepat penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Bank Dunia terkait implementasi dan efektivitas bantuan langsung tunai di Indonesia tersebut, ditemukan bahwa:  BLT efektif untuk mencegah rumah tangga miskin dari pengaruh negatif. Dana bantuan yang setara dengan sekitar 15 persen jumlah pengeluaran bulanan tersebut, cukup memadai untuk mencegah rumah tangga yang ditargetkan dari keterperosokan yang lebih dalam. Selain itu, terdapat pengaruh sampingan yaitu: program BLT turut menstimulasi peningkatan belanja antar rumah tangga yang tidak menerima bantuan. Karenanya, Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa tanpa BLT tahun 2008-09, tingkat kemiskinan akan meningkat menjadi 15,8 persen pada bulan Maret 2009 dari 15,4 persen pada bulan Maret 2008, dan bukan menurun menjadi 14,2 persen, seperti yang terjadi dengan adanya program BLT.  Tidak terdapat bukti bahwa rumah tangga penerima menghabiskan dana BLT secara keliru. BLT digunakan untuk membeli barang-barang pokok (terutama beras), biaya satu kali seperti uang sekolah, pakaian yang dipakai untuk menyambut liburan Lebaran, atau biaya transportasi. Belanja untuk rokok dan minuman keras tidak meningkat pada rumah tangga penerima BLT dibanding dengan rumah tangga miskin yang tidak menerima bantuan tersebut.  Juga tidak terdapat bukti bahwa BLT mendorong kemalasan atau kebergantungan. Para kepala rumah tangga yang menerima BLT tidak memiliki kecenderungan yang lebih besar untuk keluar dari pekerjaannya. Hal ini terutama disebabkan karena ukuran bantuan yang tidak cukup besar, atau cukup lama, untuk mendorong tindakan berhenti dari pekerjaan. Faktanya, rumah tangga penerima BLT memiliki kecenderungan yang lebih besar (sebesar 10 persen untuk menemukan pekerjaan baru dan pindah ke tempat kerja baru. Hal ini mungkin terjadi karena dana BLT digunakan untuk membayar ongkos transportasi untuk mengakses pekerjaan yang lebih baik, namun dengan jarak yang lebih jauh, atau untuk membayar jasa tempat penitipan anak.  Dana BLT diterima oleh hampir seluruh penerima sesuai daftar penerima bantuan, tetapi petugas setempat semakin banyak melakukan “pungutan liar” dari para penerima. Bantuan dikirimkan langsung dari Kementerian Keuangan kepada rumah tangga penerima bantuan melalui kantor pos untuk mencegah kesalahan pengiriman. Namun terdapat laporan bahwa setelah bantuan langsung tunai diterima, sejumlah petugas kantor pos dan petugas daerah setempat meminta “ongkos”. Tingkat kejadian adalah 10 persen pada tahun 2005, dan 46-54 persen pada tahun 2008-09. Hal ini umumnya dilakukan untuk mendistribusikan ulang bantuan kepada rumah tangga yang tidak termasuk di dalam daftar (karena kesalahan penargetan atau alasan lainnya), memberikan subsidi untuk transportasi kolektif, dan biaya pembuatan kartu identitas (KTP).  Tidak terdapat bukti apakah BLT mengikis kebersamaan sosial atau tidak. Sejumlah kritik 7 World Bank. 2012. Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT). J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 33 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia program BLT di Indonesia mengatakan bahwa bantuan tersebut mengikis semangat kebersamaan sosial seperti yang umum terlihat pada kegiatan gotong royong. Sejauh ini tidak ada penelitian yang membuktikan dengan jelas dampak positif maupun negatif dari BLT. Temuan-temuan itu menunjukkan bahwa bantuan langsung tunai bersifat efektif dalam memberikan bantuan sementara untuk melindungi rumah tangga miskin dari guncangan harga jangka pendek. Selain itu, mekanisme distribusi bantuan lebih langsung dan sederhana dari program-program bantuan lain yang ada di Indonesia, walaupun langkah pelaksanaan tetap menjadi isu yang penting agar bantuan dapat sepenuhnya efektif. Namun luputnya Namun demikian, BLT masih melewatkan banyak rumah tangga miskin dan rentan yang sejumlah rakyat miskin tidak disertakan ke dalam daftar penerima bantuan. Dengan cakupan sebanyak 18,5 juta dari daftar penerima rumah tangga, BLT ditargetkan bagi 30 persen rumah tangga paling miskin. Dari jumlah bantuan menunjukkan tersebut, seperti tercantum dalam laporan terbaru Bank Dunia, sekitar setengah tidak kebutuhan akan disertakan ke dalam daftar penerima bantuan, dan setengah dari seluruh bantuan diterima metode penargetan oleh rumah tangga yang tidak termasuk dalam 30 persen rumah tangga termiskin. Namun yang lebih baik bila metode penargetan tersebut dibandingkan dengan metode penargetan bagi program- program bantuan sosial utama lainnya di Indonesia, BLT mencatat prestasi terbaik. Agar efektif sebagai alat bantuan sosial, metode penargetan program harus menjamin bahwa bantuan diterima oleh rumah tangga yang miskin dan rentan. Namun, bantuan Bantuan dalam bentuk barang, seperti beras bersubsidi melalui Raskin, adalah mekanisme dalam bentuk barang lain yang secara cepat dapat memberikan perlindungan kepada rumah tangga yang rentan. terbukti kurang Dalam penelitian sebelumnya, ditemukan bahwa program tersebut menghadapi banyak terpercaya tantangan pelaksanaan.8 Pada tahun 2010, rumah tangga penerima melaporkan bahwa mereka membeli rata-rata 3,8 kg beras perbulan, jauh lebih kecil dari alokasi 13-16 kg beras bersubsidi yang seharusnya diberikan kepada rumah tangga miskin dan rentan (berdasarkan pengumuman Pemerintah). Sementara, sejumlah beras didistribusikan ulang lintas masyarakat, hingga sebanyak 30 persen alokasi Raskin (menurut perkiraan antara bulan November 2003 dan Januari 2004) lenyap antara titik-titik distribusi dan rumah tangga pembeli Raskin; pada sejumlah daerah tingkat kehilangan ini mencapai hingga 75 persen. Selain itu, harga Raskin bagi rumah tangga biasanya lebih tinggi dari harga yang ditetapkan. Antara bulan November 2006 dan Januari 2007, rumah tangga penerima melaporkan bahwa mereka membayar Rp 1.689 per kilogram untuk Raskin, sementara harga resmi adalah Rp 1.000 per kilogram. Upaya-upaya kini masih terus dilakukan untuk meningkatkan metode penargetan, sosialisasi, dan pengiriman bantuan Raskin. Penyempurnaan Sejak tahun 2010, Sekretariat Tim Nasional Percepatan Penanggulangan Kemiskinan metode penargetan (TNP2K), dengan bantuan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), telah mengembangkan Basis Data akan meningkatkan Terpadu (BDT) bagi calon penerima bantuan. Basis data tersebut memiliki keunggulan yang kemungkinan bantuan penting untuk menjadi pencatatan tunggal untuk penargetan seluruh program, dibanding untuk diterima oleh penggunaan daftar-daftar yang terpecah yang digunakan oleh program-program yang rumah tangga yang berbeda seperti yang dilakukan sebelumnya.9 Sebagai hasilnya, rumah tangga miskin akan tepat … lebih mungkin untuk menerima semua program yang berhak mereka terima, dibanding hanya menerima sebagian saja. Selain itu, rancangan basis data (database) yang cermat, dan mengacu kepada praktik-praktik terbaik internasional, akan memungkinkan banyak rumah tangga miskin yang sebelumnya tidak termasuk ke dalam daftar, untuk diikutsertakan sebagai penerima program bantuan. …dengan mulai BDT menyertakan 25 juta rumah tangga, atau sedikit di atas 40 persen penduduk Indonesia. bergeraknya Indonesia Kini BDT telah beroperasi dan telah digunakan untuk memilih 400.000 penerima baru dalam menuju penggunaan uji coba penyaluran program bantuan tunai bersyarat, Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH). kerangka bantuan Selain itu, 76,4 juta nama diambil dari BDT sebagai penerima kartu Jamkesmas yang baru, sosial yang lebih dan 15,5 juta rumah tangga sebagai penerima Raskin. Kementerian Pendidikan juga sepakat 8 World Bank 2012. Pelaksanaan Subsidi Raskin 9 World Bank 2012. Penargetan Rumah Tangga Miskin dan Rentan di Indonesia. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 34 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia terpadu… untuk menggunakan BDT bagi pemilihan penerima Bantuan untuk Siswa Miskin (BSM), yang mencakup sejumlah program bantuan dana kepada para siswa miskin. Tim TNP2K yang mengelola basis data tersebut bekerjasama dengan pemerintah-pemerintah daerah pada tingkat kabupaten dan propinsi yang meminta data untuk program-program bantuan sosial dan pengentasan kemiskinan daerah yang didanai oleh APBD. Sejumlah program tersebut, seperti Jamkesda (jaminan kesehatan yang melengkapi Jamkesmas), menggunakan BDT untuk melakukan koordinasi dalam memilih penerima bantuan dan menghindari tumpang- tindih antar penerima. Dengan peluncuran Program Kompensasi Khusus (P4S), Pemerintah memanfaatkan kesempatan untuk menerbitkan Kartu Perlindungan Sosial (KPS) kepada 15,5 juta rumah tangga paling miskin di dalam basis data tersebut. Kartu ini menjadi dasar penerimaan BLSM dan tambahan bantuan Raskin dari program kompensasi, dan pemegang kartu juga berhak atas perluasan program BSM di bawah P4S. Penggunaan kartu tunggal bagi berbagai program menandai langkah awal yang penting menuju kerangka bantuan sosial terpadu di Indonesia. Ini adalah pertama kali Indonesia melakukan koordinasi program bantuan sosial dan penerimanya dengan menggunakan basis data tunggal, yang akan membuka jalan kepada penyampaian bantuan yang terpadu di kemudian hari, dan juga untuk menerima keluhan maupun pengaduan. …dan memastikan Selain itu, Pemerintah akan berkoordinasi dengan masyarakat setempat untuk menyertakan bahwa daftar penerima rumah tangga miskin yang kini belum terdaftar di dalam BDT. Penelitian lapangan terbaru bantuannya selalu oleh Pemerintah, Bank Dunia dan Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL, dari diperbaharui Departemen Ekonomi, Massachusetts Institute of Technology) telah menunjukkan bahwa keterlibatan masyarakat yang difasilitasi secara cermat dapat meningkatkan kualitas penargetan, terutama dalam mengidentifikasi penduduk termiskin. Temuan-temuan itu didapat dari percobaan yang terkendali, dengan menggunakan fasilitator yang terlatih. Namun, keberhasilan penerapan metode-metode penargetan komunitas akan bergantung pada perancangan dan pelaksanaan metode-metode yang dapat diperluas jangkauannya dan dilakukan kembali pada berbagai komunitas di seluruh Indonesia. Jika berhasil, proses penargetan komunitas tidak hanya akan membantu menemukan rumah tangga tambahan untuk menerima bantuan, namun juga akan berkontribusi kepada rencana pembaruan dan perluasan basis data pada tahun 2014, karena rumah tangga-rumah tangga tersebut akan disertakan ke dalam proses sertifikasi ulang, yang merupakan keharusan agar BDT selalu mencakup data dan informasi terkini. Dengan pemberian Pemberian BLSM kepada rumah Gambar 31: Tingkat kemiskinan akan terus turun dengan BLSM, pengentasan tangga miskin dan rentan akan BLSM kemiskinan membantu Indonesia untuk Tingkat Kemiskinan Indonesia (persen), skenario aktuil dan perkiraan diperkirakan akan mempertahankan pencapaian No price increase terus berlanjut yang telah diraih dalam Price increase, no BLSM pengentasan kemiskinan. 18 Price increase, BLSM Dengan bantuan langsung tunai selama empat bulan, Bank Dunia 16 memperkirakan bahwa tingkat kemiskinan akan turun menjadi 14 9,4 persen pada bulan Maret 2014, dibanding penurunan yang 12 lebih kecil menjadi 10,5 persen bila terjadi kenaikan harga 10 namun tanpa kompensasi BLSM (Gambar 31). Penurunan tingkat 8 kemiskinan yang diharapkan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* akan mengikuti peningkatan Catatan: 2013 adalah perkiraan Bank Dunia, 2014 adalah harga BBM bersubsidi dan perkiraan Bank Dunia sesuai masing-masing skenario pemberian kompensasi, akan Sumber: BPS, perkiraan Bank Dunia serupa dengan pengalaman yang dipetik dari peningkatan harga BBM tahun 2008. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 35 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia b. Program-program jangka panjang untuk mendorong rumah tangga miskin dan rentan Reformasi subsidi Pemerintah juga mengalokasikan ulang penghematan dari penurunan subsidi kepada dua BBM memberikan program perlindungan sosial permanen berbasis rumah tangganya, yaitu: kesempatan yang baik a. Bantuan untuk Siswa Miskin (BSM). Cakupan BSM telah meningkat hampir dua kali bagi Indonesia untuk lipat dari 8,7 juta menjadi 16,6 juta penerima. Tingkat bantuan juga akan ditingkatkan meningkatkan dan secara signifikan: bantuan sekolah dasar (SD) akan meningkat dari Rp 360.000 menjadi memperluas sistem Rp 450.000 per siswa pertahun, sementara bantuan sekolah menengah pertama akan perlindungan sosialnya meningkat dari Rp 550.000 menjadi Rp 750.000 per siswa pertahun. yang saat ini sedang dikembangkan… b. Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), yang merupakan program bantuan tunai bersyarat. Cakupan program ini akan diperluas dari 1,5 juta rumah tangga menjadi 2,4 juta rumah tangga pada tahun 2013 dan 3,2 juta rumah tangga pada tahun 2014. Pada saat yang bersamaan, rata-rata bantuan akan meningkat dari Rp 1,4 juta menjadi Rp 1,8 juta per rumah tangga pertahun. Dengan melakukan alokasi ulang dari penghematan subsidi BBM ke program-program sosial jangka panjangnya, Indonesia secara efektif menggunakan kesempatan ini untuk meningkatkan dan mereformasi sistem bantuan sosial yang memang sangat dibutuhkan. Pada tahun 2010, Indonesia menghabiskan hampir Rp 30 triliun untuk program-program bantuan sosialnya, yang setara dengan 0,5 persen dari PDB. Angka itu termasuk rendah dibanding negara-negara Asia Timur yang secara rata-rata menghabiskan 1 persen dari PDB, atau negara-negara Amerika Latin yang secara rata-rata menghabiskan 1,3 persen dari PDB. Walau masih terdapat kebutuhan untuk memperdalam investasi dalam perlindungan sosial di saat Indonesia bertransisi ke sistem yang lebih mutakhir yang sesuai bagi negara dengan penghasilan menengah, alokasi ulang penghematan subsidi BBM tahun ini merupakan langkah yang signifikan ke arah yang tepat. Gambar 32: Program-program akan memperluas cakupan Gambar 33: …dan tingkat bantuan juga meningkat rumah tangga miskin dan rentan secara signifikan… (tingkat bantuan per program, juta Rupiah per tahun) (tingkat cakupan per program, juta) 20 2.0 16 Currently Expanded Currently Expanded 1.5 12 1.0 8 0.5 4 0 0.0 BSM PKH BSM - SD BSM - SMP PKH Catatan: * Juta siswa (BSM) atau rumah tangga (PKH) Sumber: TNP2K Sumber: TNP2K J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 36 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia P4S menyertakan Dengan memperluas bantuan dana bagi siswa miskin dan memperbesar bantuannya, subsidi reformasi yang yang dihemat dapat membantu memitigasi masalah peningkatan kesenjangan di Indonesia signifikan yang akan dengan meningkatkan mobilitas generasi berikutnya. Peningkatan bantuan dan kemajuan meningkatkan dalam penargetan program BSM mengatasi sejumlah tantangan utama yang dihadapi efektivitas program program tersebut seperti dijelaskan di dalam tinjauan Bank Dunia mengenai program bantuan pendidikan di bantuan sosial ini.10 Indonesia… Peningkatan kecukupan bantuan BSM. Di masa lalu, bantuan tidaklah mencukupi bagi keluarga miskin untuk mempertahankan agar anak-anaknya tetap mengenyam pendidikan. Umumnya, jumlah bantuan setara dengan sekitar 30 persen biaya pendidikan yang harus dibayar oleh keluarga penerima bantuan. Jumlah besaran BSM juga tidak mengikuti indeks inflasi; karenanya para penerima melihat jumlah bantuan semakin tidak mencukupi seiring dengan berjalannya waktu. Dengan meningkatkan bantuan melalui program P4S, maka terdapat kemungkinan yang lebih besar bagi rumah tangga untuk dapat mempertahankan anak- anaknya di sekolah demi menyelesaikan tingkat pendidikan dasar dan menengah pertama sesuai dengan program wajib belajar. Penyempurnaan penargetan bantuan BSM. Program P4S melanjutkan perombakan yang dilakukan Pemerintah terhadap metode yang digunakan untuk menargetkan BSM. Seperti telah dijelaskan di atas, Kementerian Pendidikan dan Kebudayaan dan Kementerian Agama telah bekerjasama dengan Sekretariat TNP2K dalam penggunaan BDT untuk menarget penerima BSM. Sebelumnya, distribusi bantuan dilakukan oleh komite sekolah berdasarkan kuota setempat namun tidak dikaitkan dengan tingkat kemiskinan daerah. Penargetan tersebut mencatat kinerja yang buruk; seorang siswa dari kelompok 60 persen rumah tangga yang paling mampu memiliki kesempatan yang setara untuk menerima bantuan seperti siswa dari kelompok 40 persen rumah tangga yang paling tidak mampu. Selain penggunaan BDT untuk menemukan siswa penerima bantuan, perubahan besar mengenai mekanisme pencairan bantuan juga telah dibuat. Para siswa dari keluarga yang berhak kini dapat membawa Kartu Perlindungan Sosial beserta dokumen pelengkap lainnya ke sekolah untuk menerima bantuan tersebut. Dengan memberikan wewenang langsung kepada para penerima, diperkirakan perluasan BSM melalui program P4S akan lebih menjamin peruntukan bantuan yang lebih besar agar diterima oleh para siswa yang memiliki risiko terbesar untuk putus sekolah. …dan perlindungan PKH adalah program perlindungan sosial yang telah terbukti efektif dalam menghadapi sosial yang lebih efektif kondisi kemiskinan yang sangat dan berkepanjangan. Evaluasi dampak program PKH yang bagi rumah tangga dilakukan oleh Bank Dunia pada tahun 2011 menemukan bahwa para penerima memiliki sangat miskin yang kecenderungan yang lebih besar untuk menggunakan layanan kesehatan setempat dan ditargetkan oleh PKH mengikuti perilaku hidup sehat seperti: layanan kesehatan pra-persalinan, persalinan pada sarana kesehatan, layanan pasca-persalinan, imunisasi, serta pemeriksaan dan pemantauan pertumbuhan bagi bayi dan balita.11 Namun, dampak program terhadap peningkatan pendaftaran siswa dan lamanya bersekolah tidaklah signifikan secara statistik (kecuali pada jumlah jam yang dihabiskan di sekolah, dengan peningkatan hanya lima persen di atas nilai dasar atau baseline). Seperti halnya BSM, terkait dengan permasalahan implementasi PKH yang dipaparkan dalam tinjauan Bank Dunia atas program-program bantuan sosial Indonesia, reformasi yang akan dilakukan melalui program P4S juga diharapkan dapat meningkatkan efektivitas program PKH. Peningkatan kecukupan bantuan PKH. Tampaknya, dampak sepenuhnya dari program tidak dapat direalisasikan karena besar bantuan PKH tidak sesuai dengan biaya yang harus ditanggung oleh keluarga untuk mengakses layanan kesehatan dan pendidikan. Sebagai contoh, besar bantuan memang mencukupi untuk menutup biaya pendidikan sekolah menengah pertama selama satu tahun, namun jumlahnya hanya mencukupi kurang dari 10 World Bank, 2012. Bantuan Siswa Miskin. 11 World Bank 2012. Programa Keluarga Harapan. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 37 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia setengah (43 persen) jika biaya transportasi turut disertakan. Serupa dengan hal tersebut, ongkos layanan persalinan oleh bidan berkisar antara Rp 200.000 – Rp 800.000 (berdasarkan penelitian SMERU tahun 2008), yang pada ujung tertinggi adalah setara dengan bantuan PKH yang lalu bagi ibu hamil. Besar bantuan juga belum disesuaikan dengan inflasi, yang telah mengikis nilai sesungguhnya dari bantuan tersebut seiring dengan berjalannya waktu; hal ini mengakibatkan penurunan nilai riil bantuan sebesar 22 persen antara tahun 2007 dan 2010 (disesuaikan dengan menggunakan inflasi pada bundle konsumsi rakyat miskin). Di bawah program P4S, jumlah minimum bantuan akan meningkat dari Rp 600.000 menjadi Rp 800.000 per keluarga pertahun, dan jumlah maksimumnya akan meningkat dari Rp 2.200.000 menjadi Rp 2.800.000 (perhitungannya berdasarkan jumlah anak dan umur anak, dan penyertaan ibu hamil atau menyusui di dalam suatu keluarga). Selain itu, dengan menerima Kartu Perlindungan Sosial, keluarga penerima PKH secara otomatis memiliki akses terhadap program BSM, BLSM dan alokasi Raskin. Ini merupakan pertama kalinya di Indonesia dimana program-program terpisah dilaksanakan sebagai suatu sistem untuk memberikan dukungan menyeluruh terhadap rumah tangga yang sangat miskin. Secara bersamaan, bantuan ini akan memungkinkan mereka untuk mengakses layanan kesehatan dan pendidikan dengan lebih baik, sehingga meningkatkan kemungkinan anak-anak mereka dapat membantu diri mereka sendiri untuk keluar dari lingkaran kemiskinan. Dibutuhkan perhatian Rancangan paket kompensasi merupakan kemajuan besar dalam perkembangan sistem untuk memastikan perlindungan sosial Indonesia, sejalan dengan jalur yang dilalui oleh negara-negara bahwa program- berpenghasilan menengah yang lebih maju. Keberhasilan program akan bergantung pada program disampaikan efisiensi dan efektivitas pelaksanaan komponen masing-masing program. Di masa lalu, dan dipantau secara masalah implementasi menjadi batu sandungan bagi keberhasilan program-program tersebut. memadai Sebagai contoh, pada program BSM, 83 persen siswa yang menerima bantuan pada tahun 2009 menyatakan bahwa mereka hanya menerima 39-50 persen dari besar bantuan yang ditetapkan. Walau membutuhkan waktu untuk membangun sistem pelaksanaan yang efektif, terdapat beberapa tindakan yang dapat segera diambil oleh pemerintah untuk memantau dan meningkatkan pelaksanaan program-program P4S.  Pertama, fokus pada peningkatan kesadaran penerima bantuan akan jenis-jenis bantuan yang berhak mereka terima sesuai paket kompensasi. Pada masa lalu, pelaksanaan program-program bantuan sosial dirintangi oleh terbatasnya pengetahuan penerima bantuan tentang program bantuan dan bagaimana mendapatkannya. Sebagai contoh, sebagian besar pemegang kartu Jamkesmas yang diwawancarai tidak mengetahui jenis-jenis layanan rawat jalan yang berhak mereka terima. Suatu percobaan yang dilakukan oleh J-PAL bersama dengan Sekretariat TNP2K dalam inovasi pengiriman Raskin, menemukan bahwa penerima bantuan menerima lebih banyak beras bersubsidi ketika mendapatkan informasi mengenai berapa banyak beras yang berhak mereka terima melalui kegiatan peningkatan kesadaran. Oleh sebab itu, bahan-bahan komunikasi dan strategi yang disiapkan oleh Sekretariat TNP2K untuk P4S memainkan peran penting dalam keseluruhan implementasi program, namun penggunaan bahan-bahan tersebut demi meningkatkan kesadaran para penerima bantuan dan masyarakat secara umum masih menjadi tanggung jawab utama dari lembaga pelaksana program.  Kedua, melaksanakan pemantauan program tepat pada waktunya untuk memperbaiki masalah- masalah yang dijumpai selama implementasi dan menjamin akuntabilitas pelaksanaan P4S. Pemantauan program umumnya dilakukan oleh lembaga pelaksana setempat dan didelegasikan dengan dukungan teknis dan keuangan yang terbatas, tanpa adanya sistem pemberian tanggapan untuk menyelesaikan masalah-masalah yang dijumpai. Program P4S menghadirkan kesempatan untuk menguji inovasi dalam memantau pelaksanaan program. Kemungkinan-kemungkinannya mencakup: pemantauan implementasi oleh pihak ketiga (misalnya, jaringan universitas dan LSM, keduanya memiliki jaringan yang luas dan terpercaya), pemantauan melalui pelaksanaan survei nasional yang dilakukan oleh BPS, dan uji coba penggunaan teknologi bergerak (mobile), serta pusat-pusat penerimaan keluhan. Sementara lembaga-lembaga koordinator di tingkat pusat, seperti Sekretariat TNP2K dan Bappenas, akan memainkan peran yang besar dalam merancang J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 38 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia dan melaksanakan sistem pemantauan. Kerja sama antara lembaga pelaksana di tingkat pusat dan pemerintah daerah juga merupakan hal yang sangat penting.  Akhirnya, melakukan evaluasi menyeluruh untuk menilai efektivitas program. Belajar dari pengalaman ini, Pemerintah dapat memperbaiki rancangan dan kinerja program- program perlindungan sosialnya dengan mempelajari hal-hal yang berhasil dan yang gagal dilaksanakan. Jika memungkinkan, temuan-temuan hasil evaluasi dapat dikaitkan dengan alokasi anggaran di masa yang akan datang dari lembaga-lembaga pelaksana untuk mendorong penyempurnaan pelaksanaan program.  J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 39 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 2. Tantangan Indonesia: pelaksanan Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional yang baru Indonesia sedang Pemerintah Indonesia sedang dalam proses pelaksanaan Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional melaksanakan sistem yang baru. . Program-program SJSN bersifat wajib dan akan mencakup seluruh penduduk jaminan sosial yang Indonesia, termasuk pekerja sektor formal dan informal, dengan lima program jaminan, baru… yaitu: jaminan kesehatan, jaminan pensiun (manfaat pasti), jaminan hari tua (iuran pasti), jaminan kematian dan jaminan kecelakaan kerja – dan akan memberikan manfaat yang sama kepada semua. Iuran-iuran program SJSN ditetapkan pada tingkat yang cukup untuk membiayai pengeluaran, setiap dana jaminan sosial harus dapat membiayai dirinya sendiri (self-sustaining). Dasar hukum sistem baru tersebut adalah UU No. 40/2004 tentang Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional (UU SJSN) dan UU No. 24/2011 tentang Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial (UU BPJS). Bagian ini memberikan tinjauan singkat akan pelaksanaan SJSN, dengan fokus pada tantangan-tantangan utama dan faktor-faktor yang patut dipertimbangkan demi keberhasilan penerapan sistem jaminan sosial nasional. …yang dapat Sistem jaminan sosial nasional akan membantu menggerakkan peningkatan penghasilan membawa banyak bersih penduduk untuk memperkuat dan memperluas cakupan jaminan kesehatan, manfaat bagi memberikan proteksi ketika terjadi kematian dini dan kecelakaan kerja, sertamemberikan masyarakat dan negara jaminan pendapatan setelah keluar dari angkatan kerja. Program-program SJSN sejalan dengan agenda pro-poor, pro-jobs, pro-growth pemerintah, dan akan berperan penting dalam mendukung kebijakan-kebijakan ekonomi makro pemerintah, seperti diuraikan pada rencana pembangunan jangka menengah maupun panjang. Mereka juga menjadi bagian dari program-program untuk menjamin hak asasi dan martabat individu bagi seluruh rakyat Indonesia. Dengan penerapan yang baik, program-program SJSN akan membantu mengurangi kerentanan, memberi perlindungan terhadap kejutan ekonomi, mendorong mobilitas kerja, menurunkan kemiskinan orang lanjut usia, membantu mengurangi ketidaksetaraan, dan memobilisasi kelangkaan tabungan. Pemenuhan visi SJSN Keberhasilan sistem yang baru itu pada akhirnya akan bergantung kepada seberapa baik bergantung pada rancangan, penerapan dan pengelolaannya. Upaya Pemerintah untuk menerapkan sistem keputusan dan jaminan sosial nasional yang dirancang dengan baik, berkelanjutan secara fiskal, kokoh dan tindakan yang akan menyeluruh akan menjadi tantangan dan membutuhkan serangkaian tindakan-tindakan besar datang dari Pemerintah dan BPJS agar dapat berhasil. Kerjasama antar kelompok kerja pelaksana dari berbagai Kementerian akan diperlukan untuk memastikan persetujuan bersama akan strategi yang luas bagi implementasi dan operasional sistem baru tersebut. a. Menempatkan perubahan ke dalam konteks: dimana posisi Indonesia sekarang Cakupan jaminan Indonesia kini memiliki skema jaminan sosial yang mencakup segmen-segmen pasar tenaga sosial saat ini terpecah kerja yang terpisah. Masing-masing skema dikelola oleh badan yang berbeda. Para pengelola dan tidak lengkap… ini merupakan BUMN pencari laba yang melapor kepada Kementerian BUMN dan diawasi oleh berbagai Kementerian yang berbeda. Hanya sekitar 12 persen pekerja yang ikut serta dalam programpensiun, dimana hampir semuanya berada di sektor formal, dan hanya 60 persen dari seluruh penduduk Indonesia yang terlindungi oleh asuransi kesehatan. …dengan cakupan PT Taspen mengelola program pensiun dan tabungan hari tua bagi pegawai negeri sipil (non- bagi pegawai negeri Kemhan/POLRI) dan pejabat negara, sementara PT Asabri mengelola program ASABRI sipil, militer dan polisi dan pensiun bagi anggota militer dan polisi serta PNS Kemhan/POLRI. Pegawai negeri sipil dan pejabat negara beserta ahli warisnya (janda/duda/anak/orang tua) berhak menerima manfaat pensiun seumur hidup (annuity) yang dibiayai melalui APBN dan dibayarkan melalui PT Taspen (bagi PNS Non-Kemhan/POLRI) atau PT Asabri (bagi PNS Kemhan/POLRI) sesuai peraturan perundang-undangan yang berlaku. Pegawai negeri sipil (Non- Kemhan/POLRI) dan pejabat negara juga berhak menerima tabungan hari tua yang dibayarkan sekaligus (lump sum) ketika memasuki masa pensiun dan uang duka (wafat/tewas) sebelum dan sesudah pensiun. Adapun anggota militer dan polisi juga berhak J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 40 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia menerima manfaat pensiun yang dibiayai melalui APBN dan dibayarkan melalui PT Asabri, serta 9 program ASABRI yang berlaku juga bagi PNS Kemhan/POLRI yang dikelola oleh PT Asabri. …tetapi cakupan yang PT Jamsostek memberikan jaminan sosial bagi pekerja sektor formal. Setiap perusahaan terbatas bagi pekerja wajib mendaftarkan dirinya dan para pekerjanya ke PT Jamsostek serta membayar iuran sektor formal… jaminan sosial ketenagakerjaan kepada para pegawainya. Sesuai UU No.3 Tahun 1992 tentang JAMSOSTEK, terdapat 4 program JAMSOSTEK, yaitu: Jaminan Pemeliharaan Kesehatan, Jaminan Kecelakaan Kerja, Jaminan Kematian, dan Jaminan Hari Tua. …dan cakupan yang Sebagian besar pekerja sektor informal tidak memiliki jaminan sosial. Terdapat program uji sangat terbatas coba berukuran kecil bagi pekerja informal yang disponsori oleh Jamsostek yang antara lain terhadap sektor menyertakan program jaminan hari tua. Laju perluasan cakupan melalui program uji coba itu informal dan kesehatan sangatlah lambat. Jumlah anggota hanya mencapai 400.000 orang pada akhir tahun 2010. Tingkat pergantian keanggotaan juga tinggi, karena para anggota bebas untuk masuk dan keluar dari program itu kapan saja. Dalam hal cakupan asuransi kesehatan, PT Askes hanya memberikan jaminan kesehatan kepada pegawai negeri sipil, pejabat negara, pensiunan, dan veteran beserta keluarganya yang mencakup 16.4 juta penduduk. PT Jamsostek memberikan jaminan pemeliharaan kesehatan kepada sekitar 5.5 juta penduduk, sementara 10 juta lainnya diberikan oleh pemberi kerja yang tidak memilih program jaminan pemeliharaan kesehatan Jamsostek dan memutuskan untuk ikut pada programnya sendiri. Program bebas biaya Jamkesmas yang disponsori oleh Kementerian Kesehatan memberikan jaminan kepada 86.4 juta penduduk yang miskin dan rentan, sementara program-program Jamkesda (yang dibiayai oleh anggaran pemerintah daerah dan pada umumnya melengkapi program nasional Jamkesmas) mencakup 32 juta, walaupun beberapa diantaranya juga dicakup oleh Jamkesmas. Terakhir, sekitar 5 juta individu membeli asuransi kesehatan swasta. Secara keseluruhan, jumlah yang tercakup adalah 150 juta atau sekitar 60 percent dari jumlah penduduk. Implementasi SJSN, Implementasi program SJSN dimulai segera setelah penetapan UU BPJS pada bulan yang dimulai dengan November 2011. UU ini dapat mengurangi jumlah administrator (pengelola) jaminan sosial, sistem kesehatan, membawa struktur hukum dan tata kelola yang baru dan menyederhanakan sistem sedang berjalan… pengawasan, meningkatkan transparansi dan memberikan informasi publik yang lebih terbuka. Sebagai tambahan, penerbitan keputusan Menko Kesra pada bulan Februari 2012 yang kemudian diamandemen pada bulan Maret 2012, telah menetapkan susunan birokrasi dan tanggung jawab penerapan SJSN. Sistem kesehatan SJSN akan dimulai pada 1 Januari 2014. Pemerintah telah mulai menerbitkan peraturan pelaksanaan jaminan kesehatan. Iuran yang akan dipungut dari masyarakat miskin, sektor informal dan formal masih dalam pembahasan. Manfaat paket kesehatan bersifat menyeluruh dan mencakup hampir semua jenis internvensi medis yang dibutuhkan. Hal ini sejalan dengan yang disyaratkan oleh UU SJSN. Paket tersebut juga mempertahankan tingkat cakupan yang luas yang saat ini diberikan oleh program Jamkesmas, yang memiliki paket manfaat tertinggi dibanding program lainnya di Indonesia saat ini. Bahkan tindakan medis mahal seperti operasi jantung, transplantasi organ, hemodialisis, dan pengobatan kanker juga termasuk dalam manfaat. Hal ini akan membawa tekanan yang besar terhadap sistem kesehatan di Indonesia, karena akan membutuhkan waktu yang lama bagi pemerintah untuk meningkatkan sisi penawaran – fasilitas, perlengkapan, alat-alat medis dan tenaga medis profesional – untuk dapat memenuhi harapan permintaan terhadap layanan kesehatan yang lebih canggih. Program-program ketenagakerjaan SJSN – termasuk jaminan pensiun (manfaat pasti)jaminan hari tua (iuran pasti), jaminan kematian dan jaminan kecelakaan kerja - akan dimulai selambat-lambatnya pada tanggal 1 Juli 2015 dan karenanya masih berada dalam tahap awal pengembangan . Peta jalan (roadmap) penerapannya diperkirakan akan segera diterbitkan. Diskusi yang aktif tentang rancangan dan pembiayaan program-program ketenagakerjaan SJSN, aturan investasi aset dana jaminan sosial dan aset BPJS juga telah dimulai. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 41 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …termasuk Berdasarkan UU BPJS, akan ada hanya dua administrator: satu untuk program kesehatan dan transformasi satu untuk program ketenagakerjaan. Kedua BPJS akan berbentuk lembaga hukum publik kelembagaan tidak berorientasi keuntungan yang akan beroperasi untuk melayani kepentingan peserta. PT Askes dan PT Jamsostek – BPJS Kesehatan dan BPJS Ketenagakerjaan - bekerja dengan aktif dalam transformasi mereka, dengan penekanan kepada kegiatan-kegiatan yang harus selesai pada tanggal 31 Desember 2013. Termasuk diantaranya adalah rencana penutupan kedua perusahaan, perhitungan kewajiban program, transfer aset ke BPJS yang baru dan kepada dana jaminan sosial yang tepat, dan laporan keuangan awal bagi BPJS Kesehatan dan BPJS Ketenagakerjaan. Juga terdapat pembicaraan tentang susunan tata kelola, prosedur audit internal, pengawasan dan supervisi dari kedua lembaga baru tersebut. b. Pertimbangan cakupan, biaya dan keberlanjutan fiskal Cakupan universal Sistem jaminan sosial nasional adalah upaya yang berani untuk mentransformasikan sistem mendorong mobilitas jaminan sosial Indonesia. Salah satu tujuan utamanya adalah mencapai cakupan tenaga kerja dan keseluruhan/universal – menyertakan seluruh penduduk ke dalam sistem baru itu tanpa stabilisasi pembiayaan membedakan apakah mereka bekerja di sektor formal maupun informal. Walau program- program program baru akan dimulai pada tahun 2014 dan 2015, dan rencana pemerintah untuk mencapai cakupan universal adalah pada tahun 2019, pengalaman internasional menunjukkan bahwa tampaknya akan dibutuhkan waktu setidaknya satu dekade atau lebih untuk memperluas cakupan hingga mencakup seluruh penduduk. Sebagai contoh, di Jepang dan Korea membutuhkan waktu lebih dari 20 tahun untuk mencapai cakupan seluruh penduduk. Namun demikian, bila berhasil dengan baik, maka semua orang akan turut serta dan menerima manfaat dari program-program tersebut dan biayanya akan ditanggung bersama secara merata untuk mencapai solidaritas sosial. Cakupan universal juga memungkinkan pekerja untuk berpindah tempat kerja tanpa kehilangan jaminan mereka, sehingga menciptakan pasar tenaga kerja yang lebih dinamis. Sistem yang berhasil Program-program SJSN akan memiliki perbedaan dalam rancangan maupun cakupan membutuhkan manfaat dibanding program-program yang ada dan akan menyertakan program pensiun manfaat yang menarik pada pasti. Terdapat dua cara pandang mendasar untuk merancang program-program SJSN. harga yang wajar dan Metode pertama – dari sudut pandang kebijakan sosial – adalah menentukan tingkat manfaat terjangkau yang diinginkan dan kemudian menghitung biaya dan tarif iuran yang dibutuhkan. Metode kedua dimulai dengan penentuan tingkat jumlah yang mana pemberi kerja, pekerja dan pemerintah bersedia dan siap berkontribusi dan kemudian prosesnya bergerak mundur untuk menentukan tingkat manfaat yang terjangkau. Dalam praktiknya, cara terbaik adalah menggunakan gabungan dari kedua metode untuk menghasilkan hasil yang optimal. Tujuannya adalah menentukan gabungan manfaat dan kontribusi yang berarti namun terjangkau bahkan ditengah keadaan yang kurang kondusif. Proses penetapan manfaat dan penentuan iuran bagi program-program SJSN harus memperhitungkan perbedaan karakteristik, kebutuhan dan kemampuan serta kerelaan membayar dari pekerja sektor formal maupun informal. Program-program harus dirancang dengan mengingat kebutuhan dan keperluan para pekerja, namun pada waktu yang bersamaan tingkat iuran yang akan dipungut juga harus ditetapkan dengan tepat pada taraf yang dapat diterima bagi para pekerja, pemberi kerja dan pemerintah. Iuran tersebut harus terjangkau oleh para pekerja dan tingkat iuran tersebut harus tidak menciptakan beban yang tidak beralasan bagi pemberi kerja. Pada akhirnya, pekerja dan pemberi kerja harus memberikan kontribusi karena mereka ingin melakukannya, bukan karena paksaan. Tingkat manfaat yang beralasan dan iuran yang moderat juga akan memungkinkan pemerintah untuk membayar kaum miskin tanpa mengganggu posisi fiskal negara. Program kesehatan SJSN merupakan ilustrasi yang baik dari tantangan-tantangan tersebut. UU SJSN mensyaratkan paket kesehatan yang lengkap dan hal ini telah di masukkan dalam aturan-aturan pelaksanaan. Tingkat iuran untuk kelompok miskin, sektor informal tetapi tidak miskin, dan sektor formal masih didiskusikan, demikian juga metode yang akan J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 42 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia digunakan untuk membayar layanan tenaga profesional dan fasilitas medis. Walaupun system baru akan mulai pada 1 Januari 2014, akan membutuhkan waktu agar sistem dapat memenuhi layanan seperti yang diharapkan. Beberapa tantangan yang dihadapi pemerintah termasuk meningkatkan kesadaran peserta terhadap program dan persyaratan dan manfaat, mengelola harapan peserta, membangun jaringan penyedia dan fasilitas publik dan swasta. Semua kegiatan ini, dan juga kondisi penduduk yang menua (aging) akan meningkatkan permintaan terhadap pelayanan kesehatan yang berkualitas dan modern. Akan menjadi tantangan bagi pemerintah untuk memberikan layanan kesehatan yang menyeluruh ini sementara menjaga biaya pada tingkat yang terjangkau bagi peserta. Program-program Dalam hal ini, penting untuk merumuskan dan menerapkan kebijakan-kebijakan dan harus berkelanjutan prosedur-prosedur untuk memastikan keberlanjutan fiskal dari dana jaminan sosial SJSN dan secara fiskal dalam bahwa risiko-risiko finansial dari program-program jaminan sosial dikelola dengan baik. jangka pendek dan Dibutuhkan analisis keuangan, perhitungan aktuaris yang rumit dan model-model komputer panjang… yang mutakhir untuk mengkuantisir dampak finansial dari rancangan yang diusulkan dan memastikan bahwa iuran memang mencukupi untuk membayar jaminan yang dijanjikan. …dengan Alasan lain untuk keberhati-hatian dalam menetapkan iuran adalah bahwa UU SJSN tidak pertimbangan memperkenankan aset bersih dari satu dana jaminan sosial SJSN untuk digunakan sebagai keberlanjutan pada subsidi bagi defisit dana lainnya. Setiap dana harus memiliki iurannya sendiri dan bersifat setiap dana… mandiri. Walaupun BPJS dan dana pensiun bukan untuk keuntungan, dana asuransi sosial mensyaratkan sejumlah aset bersih, ditetapkan pada tingkat yang cukup untuk menutupi penarikan cadangan dan menutupi fluktuasi penarikan (claim). Tanpa ada aset bersih, dana- dana jaminan sosial harus dibiayai oleh pemerintah untuk tambahan dana setiap saat ketika penarikan (claim) lebih tinggi dari yang diperkirakan. Jumlah aset bersih yang dibutuhkan berbeda untuk setiap dana, dimana resiko berlebihnya fluktuasi penarikan (claim) lebih tinggi untuk beberapa dana dibanding lainnya. Sebagai contoh, resiko tinggi claim lebih tinggi untuk dana kesehatan dari pada dana manfaat kematian. Walaupun tidak diharuskan oleh UU, sedapat mungkin, untuk dana manapun, iuran bagi sektor formal, sektor informal yang tidak miskin dan sektor informal yang miskin, harus dihitung dengan baik sehingga terdapat subsidi minimal antara ketiga kelompok tersebut. Bila tidak, kelompok yang membayar terlalu banyak akan merasa tidak nyaman karena terpaksa memberikan subsidi bagi kelompok yang membayar terlalu sedikit. Program pensiun SJSN Program pensiun SJSN membawa sejumlah tantangan tambahan karena biayanya akan membawa tantangan meningkat sejalan dengan waktu dengan jatuh temponya sistem pensiun sesuai dengan yang khusus peningkatan umur penduduk. Program ini harus diawasi, dikelola dan disesuaikan dengan cermat, untuk menjaganya agar tetap berkelanjutan secara fiskal sesuai berjalannya waktu. Program-program pensiun memiliki jangka waktu yang panjang. Para pekerja dapat mulai membayar iuran pada umur 20 tahun, mungkin tidak akan pensiun selama 40 tahun berikut, dan kemudian menerima manfaat selama 30 tahun selanjutnya. Karenanya, jangka waktu untuk perencanaan, pembiayaan dan investasi sangatlah panjang. Rencana-rencana pensiun membutuhkan beberapa dekade untuk mencapai kematangan yang penuh dan terkena dampak secara signifikan oleh tren jangka panjang seperti semakin menuanya penduduk. Karena alasan ini, model-model pensiun seringkali membuat proyeksi untuk 75 hingga 100 tahun. Khusus bagi pensiun, dampak jangka pendek dari peluncuran atau perubahan kepada program umumnya sangat berbeda dengan dampak jangka panjang. c. Pertimbangan administrasi, tata kelola dan kapasitas Dibutuhkan sistem Untuk mengelola program-program jaminan sosial dengan tepat, sangatlah penting untuk administrasi yang kuat, memastikan bahwa semua orang menerima nomor identifikasi yang unik dan tidak terdapat terutama bagi nomor nomor identifikasi yang sama. UU SJSN dan BPJS meminta setiap BPJS untuk bertanggung identifikasi (ID) yang jawab terhadap penetapan nomor ID yang unik kepada para anggotanya. Namun tidaklah unik … masuk akal untuk menggunakan nomor ID yang berbeda-beda dalam program-program J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 43 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia kesehatan dan ketenagakerjaan, sehingga kedua BPJS itu harus saling bekerja sama untuk menerbitkan nomor identifikasi yang dapt digunakan bersama oleh kelima program-program SJSN. Nomor ID yang unik akan setidaknya memiliki dua kegunaan yang berbeda. Nomor itu memungkinkan para individu untuk memastikan identifikasi mereka ketika meminta layanan atau menerima pembayaran. Nomor itu juga akan digunakan untuk melacak gaji individu, layanan kredit dan catatan kontribusi dalam dana asuransi sosial. Nomor identifikasi yang unik bagi para anggota SJSN dapat merupakan nomor yang sama untuk Nomor Induk Kependudukan (NIK) atau bisa menggunakan nomor lain yang terkait dengan NIK. Penilaian harus dilakukan untuk menilai kecukupan NIK dan potensi peningkatan yang dapat membantu mendorong penggunaan administrasi program SJSN. …dan bagi Pekerjaan administrasi penting lainnya adalah memungut dan mengkreditkan iuran dari pemungutan iuran dari seluruh pekerja dengan tepat. Sementara mekanisme pemungutan bagi pekerja sektor formal pekerja sektor formal telah ada di Indonesia dalam bentuk program jaminan sosial wajib Jamsostek, masih terdapat dan sektor informal… banyak penghindaran. Tingkat partisipasi dalam Jaminan Hari Tua (JHT) Jamsostek berada di bawah 30 persen, sebagian besar disebabkan karena Jamsostek tidak memiliki kewenangan untuk penegakkan. Tidak seperti pekerja sektor formal, tidak ada mekanisme pemungutan iuran yang tersedia bagi pekerja sektor informal. Dengan demikian sangatlah penting untuk segera menyusun suatu model pemungutan iuran yang efektif bagi sektor informal. Bila tidak, maka partisipasi yang berasal dari sektor sektor informal dapat dipastikan hanya akan mencapai tingkat yang rendah. Hal itu akan membawa dua konsekuensi negatif. Pekerja sektor informal tidak akan berhak untuk memperoleh manfaat dari program SJSN, dan stabilitas finansial sistem SJSN akan menemui hambatan. Bila penghindaran bersifat meluas, hal itu akan membawa dampak negatif terhadap solvabilitas keuangan dari program-program jaminan, karena hanya mereka dengan risiko yang lebih buruk yang akan bergabung sementara mereka dengan risiko yang lebih baik akan memilih untuk menghindar. Hal ini dikenal sebagai anti-seleksi atau seleksi- negatif, dan akan sangat mudah mempengaruhi stabilitas keuangan dari skema jaminan sosial tersebut. …yang perlu di Pemerintah harus mempelajari berbagai jenis mekanisme pemungutan yang mungkin dapat lakukan pilot dan di uji diterapkan, meneliti pengalaman negara-negara lain dan melakukan uji coba pada pilihan- pilihan yang mungkin bagi pemungutan iuran dari para pekerja sektor formal maupun informal. Pemilihan strategi pemungutan iuran bersama-sama dengan rancangan program yang tepat dan penegakkan yang efektif sangat dibutuhkan untuk menjamin stabilitas program dan dukungan politik yang berkelanjutan. Salah satu bagian yang penting dari solusi manapun adalah penggunaan sistem TI terpadu semaksimal mungkin untuk mengotomatisasi administrasi, mengurangi kesalahan dan mengendalikan biaya. Tata kelola dan Tata kelola dan pengawasan sistem SJSN dan operasi BPJS yang baik sangatlah penting supervisi yang karena besarnya jumlah dana yang akan mengalir ke lima dana jaminan sosial SJSN dan peran memadai dibutuhkan penting yang dipegang oleh kedua BPJS di dalam sistem jaminan sosial. BPJS harus untuk menjamin bertanggung jawab untuk mengelola program-program SJSN dan melaksanakan tanggung integritas sistem jawab yang dipercayakan kepadanya dengan baik. Dibutuhkan tolok ukur kinerja dan sistem pemeriksaan dan penyeimbangan untuk menjamin transparansi dan akuntabilitas sehingga menjaga kepercayaan masyarakat atas sistem itu. Kedua BPJS harus melaksanakan program- program demi kepentingan terbaik para pesertanya, dan keluhan para peserta harus didengar dan segera ditangani. UU BPJS mengharuskan lembaga itu untuk membentuk satuan pengendalian internal untuk menangani keluhan dan memberi tanggapan dalam suatu jangka waktu tertentu. Sesuai UU, pengawasan internal BPJS akan dilakukan oleh Dewan Komisarisnya dan oleh bagian audit internal. Selain itu pengawasan eksternal akan dilakukan oleh Dewan Jaminan Sosial Nasional (DJSN), Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) dan Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan (BPK). Sangatlah penting untuk mendefinisikan dan memahami tugas-tugas dan tanggung J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 44 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia jawab dari seluruh badan dan lembaga itu, dan pengaturannya harus disepakati dan didokumentasikan secara tertulis. Kapasitas pemerintah Dibutuhkan manajemen risiko dan pengembangan kapasitas secara keseluruhan untuk dalam mengelola risiko memastikan bahwa program-program SJSN dikelola dengan baik. Kementerian Keuangan dibutuhkan untuk membutuhkan sistem TI dan sumber daya manusia untuk memantau status keuangan melindungi integritas program-program SJSN dengan baik dan membuat penyesuaian terhadap fasilitas rancangan finansial sistem itu dan tarif iuran untuk memastikan keberlanjutan fiskal jangka panjang. Para pegawai pada lembaga-lembaga pengawas harus memiliki pengetahuan yang memadai dan menjamin bahwa terdapat susunan yang efektif bagi pengendalian dan supervisi eksternal operasi- operasi BPJS, dan departemen audit internal yang efektif di dalam BPJS. Jika hal itu tidak dilaksanakan dengan baik, maka anggaran Negara dapat mengalami kerugian yang besar, karena program-program akan kekurangan dana dan kekurangan itu harus ditanggung oleh anggaran negara. Karenanya, penyusunan model komputer yang efektif dan kemampuan manajemen risiko serta supervisi eksternal yang efektif harus menjadi perhatian utama bagi pemerintah. d. Komunikasi menjadi kunci sebagai bagian dari rangkaian proses penerapan yang panjang Sosialisasi yang tepat Komunikasi yang efektif di dalam pemerintahan dan kepada masyarakat, media dan DPR dibutuhkan untuk merupakan hal yang penting demi kesuksesan program. Jika seluruh penduduk Indonesia memastikan bahwa memahami program-program dan manfaatnya, makan penduduk akan lebih menghargai masyarakat memahami program tersebut. Jika mereka mengetahui bagaimana menggunakan layanan yang menjadi manfaat dan hak mereka, memahami hak-hak dan tanggung jawabnya, dan mengetahui lembaga-lembaga pentingnya sistem yang bertanggung jawab untuk melaksanakan program-program tersebut, mereka akan lebih SJSN mempercayai sistem dan akan lebih terdorong untuk turut serta tanpa paksaan, terutama bagi pekerja pada sektor informal. Sementara partisipasi mereka di dalam program merupakan suatu keharusan, penegakkan pembayaran akan merupakan hal yang lebih sulit. UU BPJS bergantung kepada pekerja informal untuk mendatangi kantor BPJS terdekat untuk membayar iurannya, sehingga sangatlah penting untuk meningkatkan kesadaran mereka tentang manfaat-manfaat program tersebut. e. Kesimpulan: perjalanan panjang menuju cakupan jaminan sosial yang menyeluruh Implementasi Memastikan keberhasilan sistem akan membutuhkan perhatian kepada masalah implementasi merupakan masalah utama yang termasuk mendapatkan konsensus politis antara pemangku kepentingan; yang rumit dan pengembangan peta jalan dan pemantauan implementasi program; mengembangkan strategi membutuhkan waktu nasional dan memastikan dukungan program-program SJSN atas strategi tersebut; dan konsensus menentukan strategi pembiayaan; dan mengembangkan model-model finansial dan aktuaris diantara pemangku dan kemampuan pemerintah untuk memastikan keberlanjutan fiskal program-program SJSN. kepentingan untuk Seperti dibahas pada Bagian ini, perhatian khusus harus diberikan kepada fasilitas rancangan penerapan sepenuhnya program dan perhitungan kontribusi penggajian yang dibutuhkan. Sistem dan prosedur yang dirancang dan diterapkan secara berhtai-hati akan dibutuhkan dalam penerbitan nomor identifikasi yang unik, pemungutan iuran, pencatatan rekening setiap individu dan pembayaran jaminan dengan baik dan tepat waktu. Semua hal itu harus didukung dengan peraturan perundangan yang tepat, dan dengan pengembangan kesadaran dan penyuluhan dari program tersebut (yaitu sosialisasi program). Implementasi tampaknya akan menantang dan membutuhkan waktu yang lebih panjang dari perkiraan untuk sepenuhnya mencapai sasaran yang ditetapkan. Namun program-program baru itu, sekalipun diterapkan secara kurang optimal, masih merupakan peningkatan yang signifikan dibanding sistem yang ada sekarang dan akan terdapat kesempatan untuk semakin meningkatkan program-program tersebut dan sistem secara keseluruhan dengan berjalannya waktu. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 45 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia C. Indonesia Tahun 2014 dan selanjutnya: Tinjauan pilihan 1. Indonesia: Menghadapi Beban Ganda Malnutrisi Masalah gizi Pendapatan rumah tangga telah meningkat secara signifikan akhir-akhir tahun ini, namun membawa risiko besar sebagian dengan kesuksesan ini, Indonesia menghadapi sejumlah masalah gizi dengan tingkat terhadap kerumitan yang semakin meningkat, yang merupakan topik yang akan dijabarkan di bagian pembangunan ini.Dengan satu dari tiga anak-anak usia di bawah lima tahun mengalami hambatan Indonesia… pertumbuhan (lebih pendek daripada yang diharapkan untuk umur mereka), , yang tidak hanya mengancam kapasitas angkatan kerja Indonesia, tetapi juga secara signifikan meningkatkan kecenderungan mereka untuk tumbuh menjadi gemuk dan menderita penyakit kardiovaskular pada usia yang lebih dewasa. Perubahan pola konsumsi dan gaya hidup yang berkaitan dengan peningkatan urbanisasi memperburuk keadaan, seperti masalah kelebihan nutrisi yang telah mempengaruhi sebagian besar orang dewasa. Tanpa tindakan yang segera dilakukan, untuk mengatasi masalah buruknya gizi bagi ibu hamil dan anak, dan juga menghadapi masalah kelebihan nutrisi pada anak-anak yang lebih dewasa dan orang dewasa, maka prevalensi Penyakit Tidak Menular akan meningkat secara dramatis yang akan sangat merintangi kemajuan ekonomi Indonesia untuk dekade yang akan datang.12 12Bagian ini merangkum temuan dan rekomendasi kebijakan dari kajian tekhnis terkini akan masalah BGM di Indonesia (dibiayai oleh Millenium Challenge Corporation dengan masukan dari UNICEF), dilakukan oleh Roger Shrimpton (Ahil gizi Internasional) dan Claudia Roks (Bank Dunia), dengan kontribusi dari kelompok kerja Indonesia Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN), dan Leslie Elder, Puti Marzoeki, Darren Dorkin Rebekah Pinto, Eko Pambudi dan Megha Kapoor (Bank Dunia). Makalah Tekhnis tambahan dalam topipk ini tersedia di www.worldbank.org J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 46 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia a. Sifat dan akibat serius dari Beban Ganda Malnutrisi … termasuk Beban Ganda Malnutrisi (BGM)13 merujuk kepada keberadaan kekurangan dan kelebihan kekurangan dan gizi dari makronutrisi dan mikronutrisi14 lintas perjalanan hidup dari populasi, komunitas, kelebihan nutrisi keluarga dan bahkan individu yang sama. Yang patut diperhatikan adalah dimensi jalan hidup BGM, atau keterkaitan antara kekurangan gizi ibu hamil dan janin dan peningkatan kerentanan kelebihan nutrisi dan pola makan yang berkaitan dengan penyakit tidak menular pada kemudian hari. Malnutrisi umumnya Kelebihan dan kekurangan gizi biasanya diukur Indikator Definisi dinilai dengan dengan membandingkan tinggi dan berat pengukuran berat dan badan dengan rujukan pola pertumbuhan, dan Berat kurang dari Kekurangan berat tinggi badan memberikan pengukuran kecukupan asupan harapan di usianya makanan. Kekurangan berat badan merupakan Hambatan Tinggi kurang dari pengukuran kekurangan gizi yang paling pertumbuhan harapan di usianya umum, namun tidak memperhitungkan tinggi badan, sehingga membatasi penggunaannya Berat kurang dari Penyusutan harapan sesuai tinggi sebagai suatu indikator. Hambatan di usianya pertumbuhan (kekerdilan) umumnya terjadi Berat lebih dari karena buruknya pertumbuhan selama masa di Obesitas dan harapan sesuai tinggi dalam kandungan hingga usia dua tahun. kelebihan berat badan di usianya Penyusutan adalah pengukuran kecukupan pangan jangka pendek dan dapat dikembalikan, tidak seperti hambatan pertumbuhan. Kekurangan gizi dari mikronutrisi juga merupakan hal yang umum dan juga dapat berkontribusi kepada kegagalan pertumbuhan dan juga disfungsi tubuh lainnya, seperti anemia dalam kekurangan zat besi dan gondok pada kekurangan yodium. Kelebihan gizi umumnya menunjukkan pengukuran bobot tubuh yang telalu tinggi dan obesitas, yang disebabkan oleh konsumsi makanan yang lebih banyak dibanding kebutuhan, sehingga terjadi penumpukan lemak tubuh. Obesitas dikenal sebagai penyakit pada orang dewasa dan umumnya diukur dengan Indeks Massa Tubuh (Body Mass Index/BMI) yang merupakan berat badan dibagi tinggi badan yang dikuadratkan. Kelebihan gizi BGM adalah masalah global yang mempengaruhi baik negara kaya maupun miskin: 25 persen meningkat lebih cepat penduduk dunia menderita kegemukan, sementara 17 persen anak usia pra-sekolah memiliki dari penurunan berat badan yang kurang dan 28,5 persen mengalami hambatan pertumbuhan, 40 persen kekurangan gizi perempuan usia subur menderita anemia dan sepertiga penduduk dunia masih mengalami kekurangan yodium. Sebagian besar negara-negara berpenghasilan menengah bawah (lower- middle income countries/LMICs) diperkirakan menghadapi BGM, dengan tingkat peningkatan kelebihan berat badan yang melaju lebih cepat dibanding penurunan kekurangan berat badan. Sementara tingkat obesitas dunia telah meningkat dua kali lipat pada tiga dekade yang lalu, LMICs mencatat peningkatan tiga kali lipat hanya pada dua dekade. Hambatan Hambatan pertumbuhan/kekerdilan memiliki konsekuensi yang signifikan dan beragam pertumbuhan selama perjalanan hidup. Proses hambatan pertumbuhan yang dimulai dalam kandungan juga membahayakan menyebabkan kerusakan pada perkembangan otak, dengan pengaruh yang buruk terhadap kapasitas, dan juga kecerdasan dan prestasi sekolah bagi anak-anak yang terhambat pertumbuhannya dan juga kesehatan, angkatan kinerja kerja orang dewasa yang mengalami hambatan pertumbuhan. Tingkat hambatan kerja yang akan datang pertumbuhan/kekerdilan diakui sebagai salah satu indikator terbaik akan kualitas sumber daya manusia di suatu negara. Selain itu, hambatan pertumbuhan janin menyebabkan “pemrograman metabolisme” dengan pembentukkan jaringan lemak tambahan untuk menghadapi lingkungan yang kurang pada kehidupan di luar kandungan. Jika anak-anak yang 13 Shrimpton, R. and Roks, C. 2012. The Double Burden of Nutrition: A Review of the Global Evidence. World Bank. Washington. Yang akan datang 2013. 14 Makronutrisi termasuk karbohidrat, protein dan lemak yang memberikan energi agar tubuh kita bisa berfungsi. Mikronutrisi merupakan zat yang membantu tubuh menghasilkan enzim, hormon dan zat- zat lain yang sangat penting untuk pertumbuhan dan perkembangan yang benar, dan diperlukan dalam jumlah yang sangat kecil/sedikit. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 47 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia mengalami hambatan pertumbuhan menunjukkan laju peningkatan berat badan pada masa kecilnya, maka terdapat peningkatan risiko untuk obesitas dan penyakit tidak menular (Non- Communicable Diseases/NCD) lain yang berkaitan dengan pola makan, seperti diabetes Tipe 2 dan penyakit kardiovaskular (cardiovascular diseases/CVD). Karena alasan inilah batasan untuk definisi kelebihan berat badan dan obesitas, yang menjadi dasar risiko terkena CVD, tercatat lebih rendah pada populasi yang mengalami hambatan pertumbuhan di Asia.15 b. Beban Ganda Malnutrisi adalah masalah yang berat dan mendesak di Indonesia BGM di Indonesia Masalah BGM di Indonesia telah sangat diketahui, dengan kekurangan dan kelebihan gizi lebih buruk dibanding yang terjadi pada anak-anak usia muda maupun orang dewasa dengan jumlah yang signifikan. negara-negara ASEAN Sesungguhnya keadaaan BGM di Indonesia merupakan salah satu yang paling buruk di lainnya ASEAN (Tabel 8). Dengan sepertiga anak-anak usia balita mengalami hambatan pertumbuhan, Indonesia memiliki tingkat kekerdilan yang lebih tinggi dibanding negara- negara lain yang lebih miskin seperti Vietnam dan Filipina, dan setara dengan negara-negara yang jauh lebih miskin seperti misalnya Myanmar, Kamboja dan Laos. Tingkat penyusutan di Indonesia juga termasuk tinggi, yang hanya di bawah Timor Leste, dan lebih tinggi dibanding negara-negara ASEAN lain yang lebih miskin seperti Kamboja, Laos, Vietnam, Papua Nugini dan Filipina. Namun Indonesia juga memiliki tingkat kelebihan berat badan yang paling tinggi untuk anak-anak usia belianya, lebih buruk dibanding misalnya Malaysia, negara yang memiliki tingkat pendapatan tiga kali lipat dari Indonesia. Masalah kelebihan Walau data tentang gizi Gambar 34: Bertumbuhnya proporsi penduduk Indonesia nutrisi pada usia selama kehamilan tidaklah berusia paruh baya yang mengalami kelebihan berat badan dewasa meningkat selengkap data gizi anak, (persentase kelebihan dan kekurangan berat badan pada laki-laki hampir dua kali lipat terdapat bukti bahwa satu dan perempuan berusia di atas 45 tahun) dalam dua dekade dari lima perempuan 35 1993 1997 2000 2007 terakhir Indonesia pada usia subur mengalami kegemukan 30 (kelebihan berat badan dan/atau mengalami obesitas 25 berdasarkan BMI >25). Survei Kehidupan Keluarga 20 Indonesia, yang mewakili 85 15 persen penduduk, menunjukkan bahwa selama 10 jangka waktu 15 tahun, proporsi perempuan dan laki- 5 laki yang langsing menurun 0 cukup besar sementara underweight overweight underweight overweight proporsi mereka yang gemuk men men women women meningkat hampir dua kali lipat (Gambar 34). Sumber: Survei Kehidupan Keluarga Indonesia; lihat Straus dkk (2011), Indonesian Family Life Survey Results. Washington: Rand Corporation Biaya finansial BGM di Indonesia tampaknya akan cukup signifikan. Dalam hal hilangnya produktivitas, perkiraan biaya secara konservatif dari kekurangan gizi pada anak di Asia saja mencapai 2-3 persen dari PDB.16 Biaya untuk merawat NCD bagi penduduk dewasa yang mengalami kekerdilan akan mahal. Di Afrika Selatan, sebagai contoh, biaya untuk merawat CVD saja telah menghabiskan seperempat belanja kesehatan pada satu dekade yang lalu. NCD kini telah menjadi penyebab utama kematian di seluruh dunia, dan sangat tingginya di LMIC, hampir 15 WHO 2004. Indeks massa tubuh yang tepat bagi populasi Asia dan implikasinya bagi strategi kebijakan dan intervensi. Lancet 363 (9403): 157-63. 16 Horton S. 1999. Opportunities for investments in nutrition in low-income Asia. Asian Development Review 17 (1-2(:246-273)). Lihat juga: Food and Agriculture Organization 2013. The State of Food and Agriculture. Rome. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 48 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 80 persen dari seluruh kematian yang disebabkan oleh NCD. Forum Ekonomi Dunia (World Economic Forum) menyatakan bahwa di seluruh dunia NCD akan menghabiskan dana lebih dari 30 triliun dolar AS pada 20 tahun berikut, yang merupakan 48 persen dari PDB dunia pada tahun 2010, dan akan merintangi pertumbuhan ekonomi khususnya di LMIC tanpa adanya upaya-upaya mitigasi.17 BGM di Indonesia tampaknya akan menjadi rintangan besar terhadap upaya pengentasan kemiskinan dan turut mengikis pertumbuhan ekonomi, sehingga mengganggu prioritas pertama dari RPJMN 2010-2014. Tabel 8: Keadaan BGM di Indonesia adalah salah satu yang terburuk di ASEAN Penyusuta Anak Kekerdilan Anemia BMI Wanita BMI GNI per Negara n Anak Kegemukan Anak Kehamilan <18.5 Wanita>25 kapita (persen)* (persen)* (persen)* (persen)** (persen)** (persen)* (PPP US$)* Kamboja 10,8 1,9 40,9 57,1 20,3 9,6 2.040 Indonesia 13,3 12,2 36,8 - - 21,4 4.300 Laos 7,0 2,0 44,0 14,5 17,0 2.300 Malaysia - 6,0 17,0 38,3 - - 14.360 Myanmar 7,9 3,0 35,0 - - - - Papua Nugini 4,4 3,4 43,9 - - - 2.390 Filipina 6,9 3,3 32,0 43,9 14,2 33,0 3.930 Thailand 5,0 8,0 16,0 22,0 6,9 47,3 8.240 Timor Leste 19,9 5,8 57,7 37,7 3,1 3.570 Vietnam 4,4 4,6 23,3 32,2 28,3 6,8 2.910 Sumber: *UNICEF State of the Worlds Children Report 2012 dan **WHO Nutrition Landscape Information System Kelompok miskin lebih Walau terdapat bukti yang menunjukkan peningkatan obesitas, kesalahan persepsi atas besar terkena dampak masalah tersebut cenderung menutupi urgensinya. Sebagai contoh, terdapat anggapan umum kegemukan dan pada banyak kalangan bahwa obesitas merupakan penyakit orang kaya saja. Hal itu tidak kelebihan berat berlaku di Indonesia. Riset Kesehatan Dasar (Riskesdas) tahun 2010 menunjukkan bahwa walau kegemukan/obesitas memang meningkat dengan naiknya pendapatan, yang mencapai puncaknya pada 32 persen pada kuintil kekayaan atas, kuintil kekayaan yang lebih rendah juga turut terpengaruh (kira-kira 20 persen). Volume kegemukan yang terbesar terkonsentrasi pada golongan penduduk dengan kekayaan yang lebih rendah, dan terkondisi dengan lingkungan perkotaan yang mendorong gaya hidup obesitas. Penduduk dewasa yang paling miskin dan yang juga paling terhambat pertumbuhannya merupakan pihak yang paling lemah. Penduduk Indonesia Pandangan lain yang keliru terkait dengan sifat fisik obesitas, yang umumnya identik dengan mungkin tidak sehat tambun atau “gemuk”. Kegemukan atau obesitas merupakan masalah yang tidak selalu nyata walaupun tidak (hidden) di Indonesia, karena mereka yang tidak terlihat gemuk dapat memiliki kandungan nampak “gemuk” lemak yang tersembunyi di dalam tubuhnya. Hal ini sebagian disebabkan oleh keterbatasan pertumbuhan pada 1.000 hari pertama, yang kemudian diikuti dengan percepatan pertumbuhan pada usia kanak-kanak yang didukung oleh gaya hidup perkotaan. Selain itu, bagi penduduk Indonesia, risiko kesehatan yang berkaitan dengan kelebihan lemak tubuh – baik terlihat maupun tidak – dimulai dengan lebih rendahnya BMI dibanding bahkan bagian lain di Asia, dan tentu saja lebih rendah dari standar internasional.18 Kenyataan bahwa kelebihan lemak ini tidak selalu terlihat turut membantu peremehan urgensi masalah ini pada penduduk daerah perkotaan yang semakin banyak malas bergerak. 17 Bloom, D.E., Cafiero, E.T., Jane-Llopis, E., Abraham-Gessel, S., Bloom, L.R., Fathima, S., Feigl, A.B., Gaziano, T., Mowafi, M., Pandya, A., Prettner, K., Rosenberg, L., Seligman, B., Stein, A.Z., & Weinstein, C. 2011. World Economic Forum. The Global Economic Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases. Geneva. 18 Soegondo S. 2005. Antherogenic dyslipiedaemia and metabolic syndrome. Acta Med Indonesia 37(3):177-183; and WHO 2004. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 49 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia c. Memahami penyebab BGM di Indonesia Penyebab BGM Sementara penyebab BGM lintas perjalanan hidup orang bersifat rumit, suatu cara yang terbagi ke dalam berguna untuk menganalisis BGM di Indonesia adalah menggunakan pemetaan sistem empat kelompok obesitas yang dirancang oleh Foresight Project dari Inggris, yang mengelompokkan lebih dari tematik 100 variabel dalam empat bidang tematik: lingkungan kesehatan dan biologis; lingkungan ekonomi dan pangan; lingkungan fisik dan badan; lingkungan sosial budaya. Lingkungan kesehatan Indonesia sedang berada dalam transisi demografi. Tingkat kematian karena penyakit dan biologis: NCD menular telah menurun, sepertinya disebabkan oleh kebijakan kesehatan yang diambil pada telah menjadi tahun 80 dan 90an yang meningkatkan belanja sehingga meningkatkan distribusi pusat penyebab utama kesehatan diseluruh negera. Usia harapan hidup telah meningkat dan kini NCD menjadi kematian penyebab utama kecacatan dan kematian di Indonesia, dengan CVD sebagai penyebab utama kematian (30 persen dari seluruh kematian NCD, yang diikuti oleh kanker, penyakit obstruktif paru-paru yang kronis dan diabetes). Sistem kesehatan Prasarana kesehatan masih tidak mencukupi dalam banyak hal. Cakupan sanitasi masih memiliki kapasitas mencatat laju perluasan yang lambat, dan parasit saluran pencernaan masih merupakan hal yang rendah untuk yang sangat umum. Sistem kesehatan juga tidak mampu untuk melakukan intervensi gizi mendukung program secara memadai, sebagian karena kurangnya pelatihan pekerja kesehatan tentang hal gizi dan gizi rendahnya persepsi hambatan pertumbuhan dan obesitas/kegemukan sebagai suatu masalah, atau dalam kaitannya dengan NCD. Hanya sedikit pusat kesehatan yang mengukur status gizi secara rutin, dan sebagian besar tidak memiliki alat pengukuran yang dibutuhkan. Komitmen Indonesia yang kuat untuk mencapai cakupan kesehatan umum (UHC) bagi penduduknya, namun bersama dengan peluncuran inisiatif peningkatan gizi, memberikan kesempatan yang sangat bagus untuk memperbaiki gizi. Tekanan darah yang Data survei menunjukkan peningkatan faktor-faktor risiko yang menjadi dasar pendorong tinggi dan diabetes CVD. Survei Riskesdas tahun 2007 menemukan bahwa satu dari sepuluh laki-laki dan dua sangat umum dijumpai dari sepuluh perempuan berusia di atas 45 tahun memiliki tingkat kolesterol yang tinggi. pada orang dewasa Diabetes juga mempengaruhi 6 persen dari penduduk dewasa, dan 19 persen menderita pra- diabetes. Survei Kehidupan Keluarga menemukan prevalensi hipertensi yang tinggi, yang lebih buruk pada perempuan dan meningkat sesuai usia, sedemikian besar pengaruhnya hingga sekitar setengah dari orang dewasa berusia 45 tahun turut terpengaruh (Gambar 35). Dua per tiga dari responden tidak mengetahui bahwa mereka menderita penyakit itu, dan 90 persen tidak mendapat perawatan kesehatan. Gambar 35: Hipertensi adalah masalah yang signifikan pada Gambar 36: …dan sebagian besar penduduk Indonesia tidak penduduk dewasa Indonesia… berolahraga cukup (hypertensi per kelompok umur, persen) (kurangnya kegiatan fisik per kelompok umur, persen) 80 90 80 70 men women 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 10-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Sumber: Survei Kehidupan Keluarga Indonesia 2007 Sumber: Survei Riskesdas 2007 J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 50 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lingkungan ekonomi Peningkatan kekayaan nasional di Indonesia diikuti oleh penurunan tingkat kemiskinan dan dan pangan peningkatan ketersediaan pangan sebagai energi per kapita, umumnya berupa dua kali menunjukkan peningkatan konsumsi lemak. Pada empat dekade terakhir, ketersediaan beras umumnya penurunan kemiskinan bertahan tetap stabil, sementara energi yang berasal dari daging dan ikan meningkat dua kali dan peningkatan pola lipat, dari susu meningkat tiga kali lipat, dan dari gandum naik tujuh kali lipat. Secara diet negara Barat bersamaan, peningkatan perdagangan pangan dunia telah mendorong peningkatan impor bahan pangan yang telah terproses di LMIC, yang umumnya beredar melalui jaringan pasar swalayan dan perusahaan-perusahaan rumah makan siap saji multinasional. Daerah perkotaan pada khususnya mencatat pengaruh yang besar dari gerai-gerai komersial baru tersebut. Buruknya praktek Terdapat sejumlah bukti yang meningkat bahwa pola konsumsi makanan pada usia dini akan pemberian makanan mempengaruhi kesehatan dan perkembangan pada usia selanjutnya. Sayangnya praktik kepada bayi pemberian makanan kepada bayi dan balita di Indonesia jauh dari mencukupi dan berkontribusi kepada berkontribusi kepada kekurangan gizi pada usia belia dan peningkatan risiko kelebihan gizi kelebihan dan pada usia yang lebih dewasa. Pola yang berbahaya itu termasuk penurunan tingkat pemberian kekurangan gizi air susu ibu (ASI) ekslusif, dan pemberian makanan pelengkap yang terlalu dini. Hanya 15 persen bayi mendapat ASI ekslusif selama 6 bulan seperti laporan tahun 2010 – setengah dari 32 persen yang dilaporkan pada 2007 dan lebih rendah dari 40 persen yang dilaporkan pada 2002. Penggunaan pengganti ASI masih umum digalakkan di pusat kesehatan, kepada tenaga profesional di bidang medis, dan juga kepada para ibu. Konsumsi pangan Pola konsumsi pangan pada usia selanjutnya lebih sulit untuk dievaluasi, tetapi terdapat data keluarga mencatat yang menunjukkan peningkatan dalam asupan pangan, terutama dari daging, ikan, telur dan lebih banyak makanan olahan. Konsumsi sayur dan buah bertahan tetap rendah. Indonesia adalah negara peningkatan dalam pengkonsumsi mie instan terbesar kedua di dunia, dengan konsumsi yang mendekati 13,7 kuantitas dibanding miliar bungkus pada tahun 2008, sehingga konsumsi tepung terigu meningkat menjadi 52g kualitas per orang pada 2008, membuat Indonesia sebagai salah satu dari lima negara pengekspor gandum terbesar di dunia. Peningkatan konsumsi Peningkatan konsumsi makanan olahan tampaknya berkontribusi pada masalah obesitas di makanan olahan Indonesia seperti juga di seluruh dunia. Makanan olahan merupakan makanan yang padat tampaknya energi dan penuh dengan pangan olahan, gula dan lemak, dan juga dikenal sebagai pilihan berkontribusi kepada dengan biaya termurah bagi konsumen. Mereka juga membangkitkan tingginya tingkat kelebihan gizi glukosa yang berkepanjangan pada darah setelah konsumsi, sehingga berkontribusi kepada akumulasi tambahan lemak tubuh secara bertahap. Makanan olahan yang paling banyak dikonsumsi di Indonesia adalah mie instan yang dibuat dari tepung terigu dan digoreng dengan minyak kelapa sawit. Lingkungan fisik Pengamatan akan lingkungan fisik Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa lingkungan daerah semakin mendukung perkotaan relatif tidak bersahabat bagi kegiatan fisik pejalan kaki. Dengan terbatasnya penyebab obesitas ketersediaan makanan yang sehat di kebanyakan lingkungan perkotaan, sehingga mereka yang berpergian ke dan kembali dari sekolah dan tempat kerja tidak memiliki banyak pilihan selain makanan siap saji di luar rumah. Saat ini, dan terutama karena rendahnya kesadaran masyarakat tentang masalah BGM, sekolah-sekolah belum menjadi tempat untuk mencegah obesitas anak. Perencanaan daerah perkotaan dan pemerintah daerah memiliki peran penting dalam meningkatkan pilihan bagi kegiatan fisik pejalan kaki karena sebagian besar penduduk tidak cukup banyak berolahraga untuk mencegah CVD (Gambar 36). Data survei Riskesdas tahun 2007 menunjukkan anak-anak usia sekolah merupakan kelompok umur yang paling tidak aktif bergerak. Lingkungan sosial Indonesia terus menjaga budaya tradisionalnya namun juga membenamkan dirinya ke dalam budaya semakin berbagai jenis media modern. Adat-istiadat tradisional mempengaruhi kekurangan gizi pada mendukung obesitas waktu anak dalam kandungan dan usia dini, dan norma-norma sosial mendorong sebagian besar perempuan untuk menikah pada waktu usia muda: 25 persen dari seluruh perempuan dalam usia subur menikah sebelum usia 18 tahun, dan 10 persen sebelum usia 16 tahun. Umur ibu pada kelahiran pertama menjadi korelasi utama hasil kesehatan anak, dimana risiko perlambatan pertumbuhan, diare, dan anemia bisa dihilangkan secara signifikan ketika J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 51 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia perempuna menunda kelahiran yang pertama hingga umur 27-29 tahun, terlepas dari status sosial ekonomi.19 Selain itu, anak-anak menonton televisi sekitar 4 jam setiap hari, dan iklan- iklan makanan olahan mendominasi media, dengan sebagian iklan ditujukan kepada anak- anak. Mayoritas orangtua melaporkan bahwa pembelian mereka lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh pilihan anak-anak dibanding iklan, yang menunjukkan kebutuhan untuk membatasi pengaruh eksternal tersebut, seperti direkomendasikan oleh Dewan Kesehatan Dunia (World Health Assembly). d. Mengatasi BGM di Indonesia Dibutuhkan kerangka Tindakan-tindakan yang dibutuhkan untuk memperkuat tanggapan terhadap masalah- kebijakan yang masalah gizi telah ditetapkan dan diakui menurut pergerakan Peningkatan Gizi (Scaling Up menyeluruh Nutrition/SUN), dengan ikut bergabungnya Indonesia pada bulan September 2012 bersama dengan 39 negara lainnya. Indonesia juga memiliki peranan yang kuat dalam gerakan kelompok pemimpin. Menekankan kepada kekurangan gizi kehamilan dan anak, Pemerintah sedang mengembangkan kerangka kebijakan SUN dan pedoman perencanaanya. Indonesia seharusnya menyusun kerangka SUN dengan mempertimbangkan cara untuk meningkatkan tanggapannya terhadap masalah BGM dalam perjalanan hidup masyarakat. Kerangka kebijakan BGM yang menyeluruh dibutuhkan untuk meningkatkan koordinasi antara Kementerian pada empat pilar kebijakan: ketahanan pangan, keamanan pangan, gaya hidup sehat dan gizi. Sebagian besar fokus bidang tersebut telah tercakup di dalam landasan SUN yang diselenggarakan oleh Menko Kesra. Sejumlah kebijakan dan strategi tersebut telah dipertimbangkan di dalam Rencana Aksi Nasional Pangan dan Gizi 2011-2015 yang disusun oleh Bappenas. Selain itu, dengan penyusunan Rencana untuk 2016-2020, unsur-unsur lain di dalam kerangka itu juga sedang dipertimbangkan. Intervensi yang ada Sebagian besar intervensi yang dibutuhkan telah diterapkan di Indonesia dan komitmen kuat perlu ditingkatkan, yang mendasari Rencana Indonesia untuk memberikan jaminan kesehatan umum dan sambil mengatasi Gerakan SUN mendasari kerja dasar untuk perbaikan gizi ke depannya. Walaupun sudah ada kesenjangan kemajuan dalam sejumlah bidang, tapi masih terdapat kesenjangan pada bidang lain. Sebagai contoh, implementasi intervensi langsung pada usia dini, terutama ASI, masih perlu ditingkatkan. Serupa dengan itu, walau terdapat kemajuan pada fortifikasi bahan pangan dengan adanya nutrisi mikro, anemia kehamilan masih membutuhkan perhatian. Akhirnya, program-program kesejahteraan sosial telah membantu menjamin ketahanan pangan bagi kaum termiskin dari yang miskin, namun masih dibutuhkan penekanan yang lebih besar terhadap kualitas dan kuantitas bahan pangan. Sekolah-sekolah merupakan tempat yang sangat penting untuk mendorong gaya hidup sehat yang akan membantu memitigasi pengaruh BGM, namun belum sepenuhnya digunakan bagi kepentingan ini. Para pekerja profesional dalam bidang kesehatan membutuhkan pelatihan yang lebih baik dalam hal gizi, sehingga hambatan pertumbuhan akan dipandang sebagai masalah dan kegemukan/obesitas diakui sebagai masalah untuk dicegah dan tidak hanya diobati. 19Finlay JE, Ozaltin E, Canning D. 2011. The association of maternal age with infant mortality, child anthropmetric failure, diarrhoea and anaemia for the first births: evidence from 55 low-and middle- income countries. BMJ Open 2: e000226. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 52 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 2. Reformasi birokrasi di Indonesia: kemajuan dan tantangan Indonesia telah Jumlah Pengawai Negeri Sipil (PNS) di Indonesia adalah salah satu yang terbesar di dunia, mencanangkan proses dengan jumlah kurang lebih 4,7 juta orang. Namun demikian, pelayan publik yang diberikan reformasi birokrasi maish belum sebanding dengan jumlah PNS yang ada. Untuk menghadapi masalah ini, yang ambisius yang Pemerintah Indonesia telah mencanangkan secara resmi perubahan yang lebih mendasar, dimulai pada tahun yang dikenal dengan nama Reformasi Birokrasi (RB), yang dimulai oleh Kementerian 2006 Keuangan (Kemenkeu) pada 2006. Tujuan reformasi tersebut adalah untuk menyederhanakan proses bisnis, memperbaiki kebijakan dan praktik manajemen sumber daya manusia dan menurunkan korupsi pada Kementerian Keuangan. Sejak saat itu, agenda RB telah di perluas di kementrian dan institusi pemerintahan lainnya. Pada 2012, sekitar 56 kementerian dan lembaga (K/L) terlibat dalam RB, yang akan diperluas ke 22 K/L lainnya di 2013 dan 2014. Ciri utama dari Salah satu ciri utama dari konsep RB, seperti dirancang oleh Kemenkeu, adalah pemberian reformasi ini adalah tambahan tunjangan RB yang dikaitkan kepada jenis pekerjaan. Evaluasi jabatan dilaksanakan penambahan dan deskripsi pekerjaan baru disusun, sesuai dengan kerumitan, cakupan dan tunjangan berdasarkan pertanggungjawaban pekerjaan tersebut. Berdasarkan evaluasi tersebut, ditetapkan tunjangan analisis dan tingkatan dengan jumlah yang beraneka ragam bagi setiap pekerjaan. Bagian ini akan mereview pekerjaan prakarsa tunjungan RB dan bukti-bukti akan dampak tunjangan RB terhadap kinerja. Bagian ini juga akan membahas prioritas reformasi birokrasi yang sedang berjalan, khususnya pentingnya restrukturisasi dan perampingan (right-sizing). a. Dampak reformasi birokrasi Tunjangan RB telah Sementara tunjangan RB telah meningkatkan biaya atas gaji pada lembaga-lembaga yang membawa perbaikan turut serta dalam program RB, evaluasi independen, seperti Survei Integritas Sektor Publik dalam praktik SDM... tahunan yang dilakukan oleh KPK, menunjukkan bahwa RB juga membawa dampak positif pada Kemenkeu, termasuk peningkatan proses penerimaan pegawai, dengan memastikan bahwa pegawai yang diterima memang memiliki kualifikasi yang tepat. RB juga mensyaratkan pembentukkan Assessment Center untuk menilai kompetensi pegawai yang ada dan potensi promosi jabatan. Pelatihan menjadi lebih terfokus secara teknis. Hasil lain termasuk peningkatan evaluasi kinerja dari para satuan unit dan individu, misalnya menggunakan metodologi Balanced Scorecard. Praktik SDM modern tersebut berarti bahwa RB mendukung profesionalisasi pegawai negeri yang dibutuhkan pada lembaga-lembaga utama. …seperti ditunjukkan Hasil yang positif tersebut terlihat dengan jelas pada survei penghasilan dan kinerja yang oleh survei dilakukan oleh MenPAN-RB dan Bank Dunia. Survei itu dilakukan pada tahun 2012 dan penghasilan dan melibatkan 4.000 PNS20, yang berasal dari empat belas Kementerian dan Lembaga Negara kinerja terbaru yang terbagi ke dalam empat kelompok: (1) mereka yang telah menerima tunjangan RB; (2) mereka yang telah memperoleh persetujuan untuk menerima tunjangan RB; (3) mereka yang baru mengajukan permohonan untuk program RB; dan (4) mereka yang belum mengajukan permohonan bagi program RB. Tujuan survei itu adalah untuk menilai kemajuan pencapaian Reformasi Birokrasi hingga saat itu. …menunjukkan K/L Survei tersebut menunjukkan bahwa pegawai K/L yang telah menjalankan reformasi yang mengikuti RB birokrasi lebih cenderung untuk menyatakan bahwa kolega mereka memberikan kontribusi memiliki sistem yang lebih besar dari yang diharapkan (Tabel 9). Keputusan peraturan dan promosi jabatan perekrutan dan pada K/L yang telah menjalankan RB tampaknya memiliki kemungkinan yang lebih kecil promosi yang lebih bagi hal yang tidak terduga dan bagi sikap pilih kasih. Selain itu, pegawai yang disurvei baik menyatakan bahwa Kementerian dan Lembaga Negara dengan RB lebih mampu menemukan calon terbaik untuk suatu pekerjaan dan menyaring pegawai berkualitas tinggi secara lebih mudah. 20Pegawai berpangkat lebih rendah dalam konteks ini adalah PNS yang dikagorikan sebagai pegawai yang memiliki pangkat/golongan IVA, IIID dan IIIA. Mereka yang berpangkat/golongan escelon 4 telah bekerja kurang lebih 8 tahun, sedangkan golongan III telah bekerja sekitar 8 – 13 tahun. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 53 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 9: Terdapat bukti survei akan kinerja SDM yang lebih baik antar lembaga-lembaga yang turut serta dalam reformasi birokrasi Yang lain Rekrutmen K/L merekrut Promosi dalam K/L berkontribusi lebih menemukan calon pegawai memenuhi Status reformasi birokrasi dari yang terbaik bagi posisi berkualitas kualifiaksi formal diharapkan darinya pekerjaan dengan mudah Persentase proporsi responden yang setuju atau sangat setuju Telah menerima tunjangan RB 64 91 88 77 Tunjangan RB disetujui, belum 48 80 81 61 diterima Mengajukan permohonan 42 61 63 45 tunjangan RB Belum mengajukan 41 62 66 52 permohohan tunjangan RB Sumber: Reformasi Penggajian Pegawai Negeri Indonesia: Masalah dan Pilihan Utama bagi Reformasi (Hasnain, dkk., 2013) b. Keberlanjutan reformasi birokrasi Pemerintah Indonesia Reformasi Birokrasi saat ini telah mencakup aspek reformsi yang sangat luas bila telah membuat dibandingkan dengan reformasi yang pertama kali dilaksanakan oleh Kemenkeu, terutama kemajuan yang reformsi di kantor – kantor cabang dan pelayanan Kemenkeu di daerah, seperti yang dimilik signifikan terkait oleh Ditjen Pajak dan Ditjen Perbendaharaan. Laporan yang dikeluarkan oleh Kementerian reformasi birokrasi … Perencanaan dan Pembangunan Nasional/BAPPENAS dan MenPAN-RB menunjukkan bahwa terjadi peningkatan akuntabilitas kementerian dan lembaga di tingkat pusat (LAKIP),yang semula 83 persen pada 2011 naik menjadi 95 persen pada 2012.21 Lebih lanjut, lembaga tingkat pusat yang menerima opini Wajar Tanpa Pengecualian (WTP) terhadap laporan keuangannya dari BPK juga meningkat, dari angka 63 persen pada 2011 menjadi 77 persen pada 2012. …tetapi usaha Walau reformasi birokrasi telah mencatat kemajuan yang signifikan, masih dibutuhkan upaya berkelanjutan lanjutan untuk meningkatkan produktivitas sementara memastikan bahwa belanja untuk gaji dibutuhkan untuk pegawai negeri tetap terjamin. Hal ini sangat penting dalam peluncuran RB ke tingkat meningkatkan nasional sejak tahun 2008, dan ke tingkat daerah pada tahun 2013. Selain itu, penjagaan produktivitas dan keberlanjutan reformasi itu sendiri juga merupakan hal yang tidak kalah pentingnya. Untuk memastikan mencapai tujuan-tujuan tersebut, reformasi birokrasi harus terus ditingkatkan di Indonesia, keberlanjutan gaji membangun di atas implementasi RB yang sedang berjalan pada tingkat kelembagaan, dan pegawai negeri... juga mencakup modernisasi kebijakan-kebijakan nasional. Secara khusus, selain Reformasi Manajemen Belanja Pegawai dan Reformasi Peringkat Jabatan dan Gaji,22, terdapat tiga bidang prioritas lain yang dapat dipertimbangkan oleh Pemerintah Indonesia. .. termasuk Pertama, peningkatan kebijakan yang berkaitan dengan pengendalian, rancangan organisasi, modernisasi organisasi ketenagakerjaan dan perampingan dapat bersifat efektif. Kurangnya fleksibilitas karena dan right-sizing… peraturan nasional dan proses pemeriksaan, berdasarkan pada peraturan MenPAN-RB yang belum direformasi tentang susunan organisasi dan pegawai, kini membatasi cakupan restrukturisasi dan reformasi. Guna reformasi pengendalian pendirian dan modernisasi restrukturisasi organisasi dan kebijakan right-sizing (ukuran yang sesuai/perampingan) adalah membuat anggaran personil menjadi bagian dari anggaran kegiatan atau sub-program, dan membuat manajer anggaran untuk bertanggung jawab atas hal – hal yang terkait dengan personalia dan atas belanja kepegawaian. Hal ini akan memberikan pengendalian yang lebih baik atas ukuran dan biaya pelayanan sipil, dan bagi fleksibilitas yang dibutuhkan untuk meningkatkan efisiensi dan mendapatkan nilai yang lebih baik untuk dana yang dikeluarkan. Secara khusus, akan dibutuhkan kebijakan dan mekanisme bagi perampingan untuk menghasilkan dampak. 21 Berdasarkan temuan-temuan dari Laporan Akuntabilitas Kinerja Instasi Pemerintah atau LAKIP. 22 Diuraikan pada IEQ edisi Oktober 2012 Bank Dunia. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 54 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …reformasi kerangka Kedua, reformasi kerangka peraturan nasional dan penetapan kelembagaan pusat bagi peraturan nasional… penyusunan kebijakan, peraturan dan pengelolaan pelayanan sipil. Gunanya adalah untuk meningkatkan fleksibilitas pada tingkat kelembagaan dan untuk memodernisasi dan memperkuat kapasitas bagi penyusunan kebijakan pelayanan sipil pusat yang berkaitan, dan pada saat yang bersamaan memindahkan tanggung jawab bagi implementasi peraturan dan kebijakan pelayanan sipil kepada lembaga-lembaga pelaksananya. Akhirnya, pemerintah pusat (MenPAN-RB, BKN) harus menyediakan kebijakan, memberikan panduan dan memantau implementasi, namun implementasinya harus menjadi tanggung jawab pihak kementerian dan lembaga itu sendiri. …dan reformasi Bidang prioritas ketiga adalah reformasi pensiun dan THT (Tabungan Hari Tua)23. Sasaran pensiun dan THT PNS pada bidang ini adalah memodernisasi kebijakan pensiun yang ada dengan memindahkannya dari sistem sekarang yang sudah usang ke sistem yang modern, manfaat pasti dengan sistem pembayaran sesuai kebutuhan. Proses reformasi tersebut harus melibatkan keadilan dan berbasis ekuitas dari analisis yang cermat dan dengan pengaturan peralihan yang memadai. Restrukturisasi dan Prakarsa restrukturisasi dan right-sizing menjadi prioritas bagi pemimpin yang berwenang right-sizing dalam reformasi birokrasi, MenPAN-RB, hingga berakhirnya masa pemerintahan sekarang. merupakan prioritas MenPAN-RB telah meminta enambelas kementerian dan lembaga pemerintah untuk bagi Pemerintah dalam melakukan tinjauan internal untuk meringkas struktur keorganisasian mereka. Seluruh jangka pendek… kementerian dan lembaga yang terpilih akan menyerahkan rencana restrukturisasi/ perampingannya pada bulan September 2013 sesuai perintah dari Wakil Presiden. Dalam hal ini MenPAN-RB menunggu bagaimana kementerian/lembaga negara dapat menurunkan jumlah dan susunan eselon I dan II di dalam organisasi mereka.24 Beralih ke agenda reformasi untuk jangka waktu yang lebih panjang, MenPAN-RB memiliki rencana untuk menerbitkan buku putih baru tentang struktur organisasi Pemerintah, bersama-sama dengan sejumlah kementerian dan lembaga negara, bagi pemerintahan berikut. c. Restrukturisasi dan right-sizing di dalam Pemerintah Indonesia Restrukturisasi Restrukturisasi pada badan-badan Indonesia menghadapi kendala peraturan dan operasional lembaga-lembaga yang khusus. Kerangka peraturan pegawai negeri yang berlaku, berdasarkan UU No 8/1974 pemerintah (diamandemen oleh UU No 43/1999), merupakan kodifikasi dari konsep pegawai negeri menghadapi kendala Orde Baru dengan pendekatan yang sentralistik dan sangat terinci, yang terinspirasi oleh peraturan dan operasi praktik militer yang kaku bagi para kementerian dan lembaga negara. Prinsip utamanya adalah “one size fits all atau satu pengaturan cocok untuk semua”. Banyak lembaga Di dalam sistem ini, susunan organisasi layanan sipil dan penetapan pegawai adalah terkendala oleh berdasarkan pertimbangan simetris dan bukan operasional, dengan penekanan kepada terpecahnya tugas- perimbangan jumlah unit dan sub-unit dan sejumlah posisi pada setiap tingkatan, dan bukan tugas dan pengambilan berdasar akan apa yang dibutuhkan secara operasional. Karenanya, badan-badan negara keputusan, dan juga menanggung masalah fragmentasi atas tugas-tugas dan juga kewenangan pengambilan redundansi dan keputusan, karena hal-hal itu terbagi kepada sejumlah besar sub-unit yang telah ditentukan kelebihan pegawai sebelumnya. Akibat lain dari peraturan yang berjalan adalah kelebihan pegawai pada sebagian besar lembaga, yang menunjukkan redundansi secara kuantitatif (jumlah unit dan sub-unit yang terlalu banyak dan terlalu banyak jabatan) dan kualitatif (petugas dengan kualifikasi yang tidak tepat). 23 Program pensiun pegawai negeri dan Tunjangan Hari Tua (THT) merupakan program-program pensiun yang berdiri sendiri, yang memberikan tunjangan hanya kepada pegawai negeri dan berbeda dari program pendapatan pensiun yang mencakup segmen-segmen lain dari angkatan kerja. Program- program pensiun dan THT disponsori oleh pemerintah dan dikelola oleh PT Taspen, suatu BUMN yang dibentuk untuk tugas tunggal tersebut. 24 Lihat “Perampingan Layanan Sipil Indonesia: Kesempatan dan Kendala”, yang memberikan analisis komparatif tentang topik tersebut. J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 55 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Perlunya perampingan Selain pentingnya restrukturisasi, terdapat dua pendorong utama lain bagi perampingan. di dorong oleh Pertama, tunjangan RB akan membawa dampak fiskal yang signifikan. Belanja pegawai mempertahankan bertumbuh dengan cepat dibandingkan dengan kategori belanja yang lain, didorong oleh kebutuhan staf untuk peraturan pemerintah terkait penggajain dan juga kurang jelas dan transparannya peningkatan pelayanan produktivitas yang dihasilkan serta oleh tunjangan RB25. Masalah ini secara parsial dapat sipil dipecahkan dengan pengurangan pegawai. Kedua, terdapat jumlah pegawai negeri dengan prestasi kerja yang rendah yang tidak memiliki pengetahuan, keterampilan dan kemampuan untuk memberikan layanan yang ditingkatkan yang sedang dikerjakan oleh RB, yang mana perampingan dapat menjadi strategi akhir yang dapat diterima secara sosial maupun politis. … yang membutuhkan Perampingan yang berhasil membutuhkan proses transisi yang efisien dan efektif dari definisi organisasi, susunan “sebagaimana adanya saat ini” menjadi susunan “yang akan menjadi” atau penghentian pegawai “perampingan ke ukuran yang tepat”. Terdapat tiga proses dasar: mendefinisikan struktur dan penerimaan organisasi yang baru, tingkat pekerjaan dan kepangkatan; memberhentikan pegawai yang pegawai baru tidak memiliki tempat pada susunan yang baru; dan mengangkat pegawai dan mereka yang baru diterima ke dalam jabatan-jabatan di dalam struktur yang baru. d. Menyederhanakan lembaga pemerintah Penyederhanaan Terdapat sejumlah “jendela” hukum dan peraturan perundangan untuk pemberhentian pemerintahaan pegawai yang berkelebihan. UU pokok kepegawaian (Pasal 23, UU No 43/1999) mungkin saja, memperkenankan pemberhentian karena “perampingan organisasi pemerintah” – namun khususnya melalui tampaknya terdapat keengganan untuk menggunakan peraturan ini, dan sejumlah pensiun… ketidakpastian tentang pelaksanaannya, karena peraturan pelaksanaannya masih belum dijumpai. Pilihan yang lebih memungkinkan adalah pensiun – baik dengan batas usia pensiun normal pada usia 56 tahun, atau menggunakan aturan bagi pensiun dini yaitu usia setidaknya 50 tahun dengan masa kerja setidaknya 20 tahun (UU Pensiun No 11/1969). … tetapi Terdapat sejumlah kendala bagi keberhasilan pemberhentian kelebihan pegawai yang efektif kebergantungan pada secara biaya. Kebergantungan kepada pensiun dini akan memberi beban tambahan yang pensiun dini akan cukup besar kepada dana pensiun pegawai negeri, yang sebetulnya juga siap untuk menerima membebani pensiun reformasi mendasar. Sementara biaya pensiun masa depan pada usia pensiun normal pada 56 pegawai negeri atau 60 tahun seharusnya telah disertakan ke dalam perhitungan model reformasi pensiun, tambahan yang signifikan dari pensiun dini pada usia 50 tahun (yang memang jarang dijumpai) belum disertakan. Sementara pembiayaan untuk tambahan investasi ini menimbulkan suatu tantangan, penting untuk dicatat bahwa tambahan ini hanyalah peningkatan kewajiban pensiun satu kali saja, dan bukan merupakan rencana peningkatan biaya secara terus menerus. Dibutuhkan Tanpa panduan dari MenPAN-RB tentang penyusunan program-program pesangon, pengembangan terdapat risiko bahwa skema yang khusus bagi suatu lembaga akan menyebar, dengan syarat- panduan pesangon syarat dan ketentuan yang berbeda-beda. Demi kepentingan politis dan ekuitas akan untuk seluruh lembaga beralasan bahwa pegawai negeri dapat mengharapkan setidaknya paket pesangon yang baik seperti tawaran terbaik yang pernah diberikan sebelumnya – sehingga dinamika “leveling up” yang mahal tampaknya akan terjadi tanpa adanya standar yang berlaku bagi Pemerintah secara keseluruhan. Pengaturan pada tingkat Kementerian juga rentan akan bahaya moral, karena perancang aturan akan memiliki hubungan yang lebih dekat dengan para calon penerima pesangon dan dapat tergoda untuk memilih pengaturan yang lebih mahal (“jabat tangan emas”), dibanding penggunaan alternatif pensiun berdasarkan umur dengan biaya yang lebih murah. Masalah ‘diterima Walau dengan kerangka peraturan yang rinci dan tidak fleksibel untuk menentukan struktur bekerja kembali organisasi dan bagi perencanaan tenaga kerja, kepegawaian negeri Indonesia tidak memiliki (revolving door)’ dapat pengendalian yang efektif untuk mencegah masalah “diterima bekerja kembali (revolving di hindari dengan doors)”. Dengan peningkatan fokus atas kualitas belanja, Pemerintah saat ini memberikan 25 Untuk mengetahui lebih lanjut terkait topic ini, lihat IEQ edisi Oktober 2012 J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 56 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia memperkenalkan perhatian lebih kepada keefektifan dari operasinya dan kepada apakah pembelanjaannya insentif untuk dilakukan secara lebih efisien (least cost). Fokus atas reviu pembelanjaan akan berbeda – menurunkan jumlah berbeda namun bisa saja reviu dimaksud akan melihat apakah kementerian dan lembaga pegawai memiliki jumlah dan bauran staf yang tepat untuk mengerjakan tugas yang harus diemban – dengan kemungkinan opsi perampingan. Kecuali kalau memang ada kontrol yang ketat atas jumlah staf – idealnya dengan sistem SDM berdasarkan posisi yang mampu mengintegrasikan masalah struktur, fungsi khusus dan staff – kemungkinan besar “revolving doors” akan menghalangi usaha – usaha pengurangan pegawai.. e. Pengangkatan pegawai untuk struktur baru Secara internasional, Tren internasional bergeser kepada sistem pengangkatan dan promosi pegawai yang terbuka tren mengarah menuju dan berdasarkan prestasi, namun hal ini masih menemui keterbatasan yang signifikan di sistem pengangkatan Indonesia. Badan-badan negara memiliki tingkat delegasi kewenangan yang tinggi untuk dan promosi yang mengisi jabtan dengan pegawai mereka sendiri. Namun untuk hal ini berlaku pembatasan terbuka dan pada jabatan-jabatan tertentu untuk kepangkatan tertentu26, sehingga terdapat kemungkinan berdasarkan prestasi adanya halangan bagi pegawai terbaik untuk diangkat bagi jabatan tersebut.27. Sesungguhnya PNS bekerja di dalam sistem yang tertutup, dengan penerimaan pegawai dari luar hanya diperkenankan pada pangkat pemula. Sementara penerimaan dari luar kepegawaian negeri ke pangkat yang lebih tinggi tidak diperkenankan (Pasal 12 UU No 43/1999 tentang Pokok- Pokok Kepegawaian, pasal 12), pemindahan antar lembaga negara dapat dilakukan, walaupun sistem pelaksanaannya masih belum jelas; tidak ada pasar internal untuk penerimaan dan pemindahan antar kepegawaian negeri. Adanya pasar seperti itu akan memungkinkan pegawai negeri dengan kualifikasi yang tepat dan keterampilan yang sesuai untuk merespon insentif yang ada saat ini berupa tunjangan kinerja yang berbeda-beda, atau berupa penempatan pada lintas Badan atau Lembaga Negara. f. Kendala dan pilihan reformasi bagi right-sizing Restrukturisasi dan Seperti dijelaskan pada pembahasan di atas, sejumlah kendala dalam bidang hukum, perampingan peraturan dan kemampuan merintangi implementasi proses perampingan utama secara menghadapi sejumlah efektif pada kepegawaian negeri Indonesia. Hal ini menimbulkan kebutuhan bagi reformasi kendala dalam bidang lanjutan yang dibangun di atas kemajuan signifikan yang telah dicapai, seperti penggunaan hukum, peraturan dan tunjangan jabatan khusus, yang telah digunakan di dalam reformasi birokrasi di Indonesia. kapasitas Sejumlah unsur-unsur utama, seperti yang dibahas pada catatan ini, dapat dilihat pada Tabel 10, bersama-sama dengan usulan reformasi tingkat tinggi. Keberlanjutan kemajuan pada bidang ini sebagian akan bergantung pada penetapan RUU Aparatur Sipil Negara yang kini masih dalam tahap penyusunan. 26Sebagai contoh, jabatan Eselon II hanya dapat diisi oleh pegawai dengan pangkat 4B ke atas 27Mengacu pada Peraturan Pemerintah (PP) No. 100/200 tentang Pengangkatan PNS Di Dalam Jabatan Struktural seperti yang dijabarkan di dalam Peraturan Kepala BKN No. 13/2002 J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 57 Menanggapi berbagai tekanan Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 10: Kendala terpilih terhadap restrukturisasi dan perampingan dan pilihan reformasi tingkat tinggi Kendala Pilihan reformasi Memperluas Pedoman RB dengan menyertakan fokus yang jelas atas dasar Lembaga/badan tidak memiliki arah yang jelas pemikiran dan metodologi untuk diikuti; meningkatkan peran BPK dalam untuk restrukturisasi dan proses-proses yang meninjau dan memberi usulan kepada Badan tentang struktur organisasi berkaitan yang efisien secara biaya Badan-badan tidak berwenang untuk Mengganti pengendalian terpusat akan susunan dengan pedoman praktik menentukan susunan dan pekerjaannya yang baik, bersama dengan pengendalian fiskal yang sesuai Memperkuat kemampuan SDM MenPAN-RB untuk menyetujui susunan dan Persetujuan usulan restrukturisasi K/L dan persyaratan kerja dengan cepat, dan menggunakan proses persetujuan persyaratan SDM dapat lambat dan tidak pasti gabungan yang tunggal, yang hanya membutuhkan persetujuan bagi jaminan efisiensi dan kualitas Sistem dan insentif yang lemah bagi para Memperkenalkan insentif fiskal seperti penyimpanan bagian gaji oleh para Badan untuk mengembangkan dan Badan Negara; menyusun sistem pengendalian dan manajemen memelihara susunan yang efisien; risiko kepegawaian berdasar jabatan untuk menghindari “kelebihan penerimaan” “diterima bekerja kembali” dan penerimaan kembali pegawai yang tidak efisien Tidak adanya pedoman untuk pilihan dan Menyusun pedoman praktik terbaik bagi para Badan untuk pemberian prosedur pesangon pesangon pada pegawai yang akan menerimanya Tidak jelasnya aturan tentang pemberhentian Hal yang sensitif secara politis dan menunggu klarifikasi dari RUU Aparatur wajib pegawai negeri ketika dibutuhkan Sipil Negara Aturan pensiun dini sesuai skema pensiun Koordinasi yang lebih baik bagi reformasi pensiun, penggajian dan mungkin tidak cocok untuk perampingan rancangan perampingan Larangan pengangkatan jabatan menyamping RUU harus mengatasi pembatasan pengangkatan menyamping; membatasi akses ke pegawai berkemampuan mempertimbangkan pasar tenaga kerja internal berbasis web lintas tinggi dari kalangan di luar pegawai negeri kepegawaian negeri untuk meningkatkan kecocokan pekerjaan Sumber: Reformasi Penggajian Pegawai Negeri Indonesia: Masalah dan Pilihan Utama bagi Reformasi (Hasnain, dkk., 2013) J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 58 LAMPIRAN: INDIKATOR GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA Lampiran Gambar 1: Pertumbuhan PDB triwulanan dan Lampiran Gambar 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB pengeluaran tahunan (kontribusi pertumbuhan PDB riil triwulan-ke-triwulan, dengan penyesuaian (pertumbuhan PDB riil, persen) musiman, persen) Private cons. Gov cons. Investment 4 8.0 Yoy (RHS) Net Exports Discrepancy GDP 4 3 6.0 QoQ seas. adjust Average 2 (LHS) (LHS)* 2 4.0 0 1 2.0 -2 0 0.0 -4 Mar-06 Dec-07 Sep-09 Jun-11 Mar-13 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Catatan: * Rata-rata pertumbuhan Tw-k-Tw pada Q1 2003 – Q1 2013 Sumber: BPS; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; World Bank seasonal adjustment Lampiran Gambar 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB produksi Lampiran Gambar 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil (kontribusi pertumbuhan PDB riil triwulan-ke-triwulan, dengan (bulanan, 000 unit) penyesuaian musiman, persen) Agriculture Mining and Const 900 130 Manufacture Comm and Trans. Trade, Hotel, & Rest. Other (incl services) Overall GDP Sepeda motor (kiri) 2 110 700 90 1 500 70 Kendaraan bermotor 0 300 (kanan) 50 -1 100 30 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Sumber: BPS; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC Lampiran Gambar 5: Indikator konsumen Lampiran Gambar 6: Indikator kegiatan industri (indeks) (rata-rata 3 bulan, pertumbuhan tahun-ke-tahun, persen) 160 15 30 Indeks produksi BI indeks penjualan retail BI manufaktur (kiri) 140 10 22 120 Indeks konsumen BI 5 14 100 0 6 -5 Penjualan semen -2 80 (kanan) 60 -10 -10 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Sumber: BI Sumber: CEIC Lampiran Gambar 7: Aliran perdagangan riil Lampiran Gambar 8: Neraca pembayaran (pertumbuhan triwulan-ke-triwulan, persen) (miliar dolar AS) 20 Capital and financial Current account Errors and omissions Overall BoP inflows 15 Impor 10 10 0 5 0 -10 Ekspor -5 -20 -10 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Sumber: BPS Sumber: BI Lampiran Gambar 9: Ekspor barang Lampiran Gambar 10: Impor barang (miliar dolar AS) (miliar dolar AS) 20 18 Total impor Total ekspor 15 16 12 12 9 Bahan perantara 8 Manufaktur 6 Pertanian dan kehutanan Migas Barang modal 4 3 Barang konsumsi Migas Tambang dan mineral 0 0 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Sumber: BPS Sumber: BI; CEIC; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Lampiran Gambar 11: Cadangan devisa dan aliran masuk Lampiran Gambar 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter portfolio modal asing (pertumbuhan bulan-ke-bulan dan tahun-ke-tahun, persen) (miliar dolar AS) 3 12 150 5.0 Inflasi total, tahun-ke-tahun (kanan) Cadangan devisa (Kiri) 2 Inflasi inti, tahu-ke-tahun (kanan) 8 125 2.5 Suku bunga BI (kanan) 100 0.0 1 4 75 -2.5 0 0 50 -5.0 Aliran masuk portfolio inflasi, triwulan-ke-triwulan (kiri) Equities SUN asing (Kanan): SBI 25 -7.5 -1 -4 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Sumber: BI; CEIC; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 60 Lampiran Gambar 13: Rincian bulanan tingkat harga Lampiran Gambar 14: perbandingan tingkat inflasi antar konsumen negara tetangga (persentase dari kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan inflasi bulanan) (pertumbuhan tahun-ke-tahun, Mei 2013) Core Administered Volatile Headline Indonesia 1.8 Thailand Singapore* 1.2 China Philippines* 0.6 USA Korea* 0.0 Malaysia* Japan* -0.6 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sumber: BPS; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia *April merupakan data terkini Sumber: BPS; CEIC Lampiran Gambar 15: Harga beras kulakan di pasar Lampiran Gambar 16: Tingkat kemiskinan dan pengangguran domestik dan internasional (persen) (persen sebelah kiri, harga grosir, dalam IDR per kg sebelah kanan) 100 10,000 60 Unemployment rate, LHS 20 Persentase perbedaan harga (kiri) Formal employment rate, LHS Tingkat 45 kemiskinan 15 50 7,000 30 10 0 4,000 Beras domestik 15 5 Beras Vietnam patah 25% (kanan) (kanan) -50 1,000 0 0 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sumber: PIBC; FAO; Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS Lampiran Gambar 17: Indeks saham regional Lampiran Gambar 18: Indeks spot dolar AS dan rupiah (indeks harian Januari 2009=100) (indeks harga harian, kiri & tingkat harga harian IDR/USD, kanan) 400 120 8,000 350 SET Rp/USD 110 (kanan) 9,000 JCI 300 250 Apresiasi rupiah 100 10,000 BSE 200 Indeks dolar SGX 150 90 Amerika (kiri) 11,000 100 Shanghai 80 12,000 50 Mar-09 Aug-10 Jan-12 Jun-13 Mar-09 Aug-10 Jan-12 Jun-13 Sumber: CEIC; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 61 Lampiran Gambar 19: Yield obligasi pemerintah 5 tahunan Lampiran Gambar 20: spread EMBI obligasi pemerintah mata uang lokal dengan obligasi dolar AS (harian, persen) (harian, basis poin) 12 550 120 475 Indonesia spreads less overall EMBIG 60 9 Index spreads (kanan) 400 0 Indonesia 6 Philippines 325 -60 Malaysia 250 -120 3 Thailand 175 -180 United States Indonesia EMBIG bond spreads (kiri) 0 100 -240 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-09 Oct-10 Feb-12 Jun-13 Sumber: CEIC; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Sumber: JP Morgan; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Lampiran Gambar 21: Tingkat kredit bank umum Lampiran Gambar 22: Indikator keuangan sektor perbankan (bulanan, indeks Januari 2009=100) (bulanan, persen) 220 100 10 Indonesia Rasio pinjaman dan India deposit-LDR (kiri) 200 80 8 180 Singapore Malaysia 60 Rasio kredit 6 160 bermasalah-NPL Rasio (kanan) pengembalian 140 aset-ROA (kanan) 40 4 Thailand 120 20 2 100 United States Rasio kecukupan kapital (kiri) 80 0 0 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Sumber: CEIC; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI Lampiran Gambar 23: Utang pemerintah Lampiran Gambar 24: Utang luar negeri (persentase dari PDB; miliar dolar AS) (persentase dari PDB; miliar dolar AS) 60 External debt, RHS 300 60 300 Private external debt, RHS Domestic debt, RHS Public external debt, RHS Rasio utang pemerintah Rasio utang luar negeri terhadap PDB (kiri) terhadap PDB (kiri) 40 200 40 200 20 100 20 100 0 0 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Maret Maret Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; BI; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI; kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia J u li 20 1 3 T H E W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 62 Lampiran Tabel 1: Realisasi dan anggaran belanja pemerintah (triliun Rupiah) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi (tidak APBN APBN-P diaudit) A. Penerimaan negara & hibah 849 995 1,211 1,336 1,530 1,502 1. Penerimaan pajak 620 723 874 980 1,193 1,148 2. Penerimaan non-pajak 227 269 331 352 332 349 B. Belanja 937 1,042 1,295 1,482 1,683 1,726 1. Pemerintah pusat 629 697 884 1,001 1,154 1,197 2. Transfer ke daerah 309 345 411 480 529 529 C. Keseimbangan primer 5 42 9 -46 -40 -112 D. SURPLUS / DEFISIT -89 -47 -84 -146 -153 -224 (persen dari PDB) -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 -1.7 -2.4 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan Lampiran Tabel 2: Neraca pembayaran (miliar dolar AS) 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Neraca pembayaran 30.3 11.9 0.2 -4.0 -3.7 -1.0 -2.8 0.8 3.2 -6.6 Persen dari PDB 4.3 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Neraca berjalan 5.1 1.7 -24.1 0.8 -2.3 -3.1 -8.0 -5.3 -7.6 -5.3 Persen dari PDB 0.7 0.2 -2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Neraca perdagangan 21.3 24.2 -2.2 7.1 3.5 1.7 -2.1 0.7 -2.5 -0.7 Pendapatan bersih dan transfer berjalan -16.2 -22.5 -21.9 -6.4 -5.8 -4.8 -5.9 -6.0 -5.1 -4.6 Neraca modal & keuangan 26.6 13.6 24.9 -3.1 0.2 2.1 5.1 5.9 11.9 -1.4 Persen dari PDB 3.8 1.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Investasi langsung 11.1 11.5 14.3 2.1 3.1 1.6 3.8 4.5 4.5 3.4 Investasi Portfolio 13.2 3.8 9.2 -4.6 0.2 2.6 3.9 2.5 0.2 2.9 Investasi lain 2.3 -1.8 1.4 -0.7 -3.2 -2.1 -2.5 -1.2 7.2 -7.7 Kesalahan & Omisi -1.5 -3.4 -0.7 -1.6 -1.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 -1.0 0.0 Cadangan devisa* 96.2 110.1 112.8 114.5 110.1 110.5 106.5 110.2 112.8 104.8 Catatan: * Cadangan devisa pada akhir periode Sumber: BI; BPS J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 63 Lampiran Tabel 3: Sekilas tentang perkembangan indikator ekonomi makro Indonesia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Neraca Nasional (% perubahan) PDB riil 9.0 8.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 Investasi riil 25.3 22.6 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.8 9.8 Konsumsi riil 23.2 21.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 Swasta 23.9 22.7 3.7 0.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 Pemerintah 18.8 14.7 14.2 6.6 0.3 3.2 1.2 Ekspor rill, barang dan jasa 22.5 18.0 30.6 16.6 15.3 13.6 2.0 Impor riil, barang dan jasa 30.2 29.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 13.3 6.6 Investasi (% PDB) 28 28 20 24 32 32 33 Nominal PDB (milyar dolar AS) 114 202 165 286 709 846 875 PDB per capita (dolar AS) 636 1035 804 1,300 2,984 3,498 3,563 2 Anggaran Pemerintah Pusat (% GDP) Penerimaan dan hibah 18.8 15.2 20.8 17.8 15.5 16.3 16.2 Penerimaan bukan pajak 1.0 4.8 9.0 5.3 4.2 4.5 4.3 Penerimaan pajak 17.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 11.3 11.8 11.9 Pengeluaran 11.8 13.9 22.4 18.4 16.2 17.4 18.0 Konsumsi .. 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 Modal .. 4.6 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 Bunga pinjaman .. 1.4 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Subsidi .. .. 6.3 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 Surplus/defisit 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 Utang Pemerintah 41.9 32.3 97.9 47.6 26.0 24.3 24.0 Utang luar negeri pemerintah 41.9 32.3 51.4 22.3 9.5 8.3 7.5 Total utang luar negeri (termasuk utang swasta) 61.0 61.5 87.1 47.7 28.2 27.5 29.7 3 Neraca Pembayaran (% PDB) Neraca pembayaran keseluruhan .. .. .. 0.2 4.3 1.4 0.0 Neraca transaksi berjalan -2.6 3.2 4.8 0.1 0.7 0.2 -2.8 Ekspor, barang dan jasa 25.6 26.2 42.8 35.2 24.6 26.2 24.2 Impor, barang dan jasa 24.0 26.9 33.9 32.2 21.6 23.3 24.4 Transaksi berjalan 1.6 -0.8 8.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 -0.2 Neraca transaksi keuangan .. .. .. 0.0 3.7 1.6 2.8 Penanaman modal langsung, neto 1.0 2.2 -2.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.6 Cadangan devisa bruto (USD billion) 8.7 14.9 29.4 34.7 96.2 110.1 112.8 3 Moneter (% change) 1 Deflator PDB 7.7 9.9 20.4 14.3 8.3 8.1 4.5 Suku bunga Bank Indonesia (%) .. .. .. 9.1 6.5 6.6 5.8 Kredit domestik .. .. .. 28.7 17.5 24.4 24.2 4 Nilai tukar Rupiah/Dolar AS (rata-rata) 1,843 2,249 8,422 9,705 9,090 8,770 9,415 1 Harga-harga (% perubahan) Indeks harga konsumen (akhir periode) 9.9 9.0 9.4 17.1 7.0 3.8 4.3 Indeks harga konsumen (rata-rata) 7.7 9.4 3.7 10.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 Keranjang harga kemiskinan .. .. .. 10.8 8.7 8.2 6.5 Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (Dolar AS per 5 .. 17 28 53 79 112 113 barel) Sumber: 1 BPS dan kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia; 2 Kementerian Keuangan dan kalkulasi staf Bank Dunia (tahun 1995 adalah FY 1995/1996, dan 2000 mencakup 9 bulan); 3 Bank Indonesia; 4 IMF; 5 CEIC J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 64 Lampiran Tabel 4: Sekilas tentang perkembangan indikator sosial Indonesia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Kependudukan Penduduk (juta) 184 199 213 227 240 242 .. Tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk (%) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 .. Penduduk perkotaan (% terhadap total) 31 36 42 46 50 51 .. Rasio ketergantungan (% penduduk usia kerja) 67 61 55 51 48 48 .. 2 Angkatan Kerja Angkatan kerja, total (juta) 75 84 98 106 117 117 118 Laki-laki 46 54 60 68 72 72 73 Perempuan 29 31 38 38 45 45 45 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor pertanian (%) 55 43 45 44 38 36 35 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor industri (%) 14 19 17 19 19 21 22 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor jasa (%) 31 38 37 37 42 44 43 Tingkat pengangguran, total (% angkatan kerja) 2.5 7.0 8.1 11.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 3 Kemiskinan dan Distribusi Pendapatan Konsumsi rumah tangga, median (Rp.000) .. .. 104 211 374 421 446 Garis kemiskinan nasional (Rp.000) .. .. 73 129 212 234 249 Jumlah penduduk miskin (juta) .. .. 38 35 31 30 29 Penduduk miskin (% penduduk dibawah garis kemiskinan) .. .. 19 16 13 12 12 Di perkotaan .. .. 15 12 10 9 9 Di perdesaan .. .. 22 20 17 16 15 Laki-laki sebagai kepala rumah tangga .. .. 16 13 11 10 9 Perempuan sebagai kepala rumah tangga .. .. 13 13 9 10 9 GINI indeks .. .. 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Kontribusi konsumsi pada 20% kelompok termiskin (%) .. .. 10 9 8 7 7 Kontribusi konsumsi pada 20% kelompok terkaya (%) .. .. 39 41 44 47 47 4 Pengeluar publik untuk kesejahteraan masyarakat (% PDB) .. .. .. 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 1 Kesehatan dan Gizi Balita kurang gizi (% total anak usia dibawah 5) .. 27 25 24 18 .. .. 5 Tingkat kematian balita (per 1000 anak usia dibawah 5 tahun) 98 .. 46 .. 44 .. .. 5 Tingkat kematian bayi lahir (per 1000 kelahiran hidup) 27 .. .. .. 19 .. .. 5 Tingkat kematian bayi (per 1000 kelahiran hidup) 67 .. 35 .. 34 .. .. Rasio kematian persalinan (perkiraan, per 100,000 kelahiran 600 420 340 270 220 .. .. hidup) Persalinan yang dibantu penolong kelahiran (% total kelahiran) 36 .. 66 .. 82 .. .. Imunisasi campak (% anak usia dibawah 1 tahun) 0 .. 72 .. 76 .. .. Pengeluaran untuk kesehatan (% of GDP) .. 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.6 .. .. Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk kesehatan (% of GDP) .. 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 .. .. 3 Pendidikan Angka partisipasi murni (APM) SD, (%) .. .. .. 92 92 92 93 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 48 48 49 49 Angka partisipasi murni pendidikan tingkat menengah, (%) .. .. .. 52 61 60 60 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 50 50 50 49 Angka partisipasi murni universitas/pendidikan tinggi, (%) .. .. .. 9 16 14 15 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 55 53 50 54 Angka melek huruf Dewasa (%) .. .. .. 91 91 91 92 Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (% terhadap PDB) .. .. .. 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (% terhadap APBN) .. .. .. 14.5 19.7 19.8 18.9 1 Air Bersih dan Kesehatan lingkungan Penduduk dengan akses air bersih (% tot penduduk) 70 74 78 80 82 .. .. Di perkotaan (% penduduk perkotaan) 91 91 91 91 92 .. .. Di perdesaan (% penduduk perdesaan) 61 65 68 71 74 .. .. Penduduk dengani akses kesehatan lingkungan (% tot penduduk) 32 38 44 50 54 .. .. Di perkotaan (% penduduk perkotaan) 56 60 64 69 73 .. .. Di perdesaan (% penduduk perdesaan) 21 26 30 35 39 .. .. 1 Lainnya Pengurangan resiko bencana, penilaian (skala 1-5; 5=terbaik) .. .. .. .. .. 3.3 .. 6 Proporsi perempuan yang duduk di parlemen (%) .. .. 8.0 11.3 18.0 18.2 18.6 Sumber: 1 World Development Indicators; 2 BPS (Sakernas); 3 BPS dan Bank Dunia; 4 Kementerian Keuangan dan kalkulasi oleh staf Bank Dunia dan hanya termasuk pengeluaran aktual untuk Raskin, Jamkesmas, BLT, BSM, PKH; 6 Inter-Parliamentary Union J u li 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 65 Oktober 2013 Penyesuaian berlanjut PERKEMBANGAN TRIWULANAN PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Penyesuaian berlanjut Oktober 2013 Kata Pengantar Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia (Indonesia Economic Quarterly/IEQ) mempunyai dua tujuan. Pertama, untuk menyajikan perkembangan utama perekonomian Indonesia dalam tiga bulan terakhir, dan menempatkan dalam konteks jangka panjang dan global. Berdasarkan perkembangan ini, serta perubahan kebijakan dalam periode tersebut, laporan ini menyediakan perkembangan terkini secara rutin tentang prospek perekonomian dan kesejahteraan sosial Indonesia. Kedua, laporan IEQ ini memberikan penilaian mendalam terhadap isu-isu ekonomi dan kebijakan tertentu, dan analisis terhadap tantangan pembangunan jangka menengah Indonesia. Laporan ini ditujukan untuk khalayak luas termasuk pembuat kebijakan, pemimpin bisnis, pelaku pasar keuangan, serta komunitas analis dan profesional yang terlibat dan mengikuti perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia. IEQ merupakan laporan Bank Dunia di Jakarta dan disusun oleh tim kebijakan makro dan fiskal, unit Pengentasan Kemiskinan dan Manajemen Ekonomi (Poverty Reduction and Economic Management/PREM), Bank Dunia Jakarta di bawah bimbingan Jim Brumby sebagai Sector Manager dan Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop sebagai Economic Adviser dan Lead Economist dan Ashley Taylor sebagai Senior Economist. Tim utama penyusun laporan ini dengan tanggung jawab di bagian A (perkembangan ekonomi dan fiskal terkini), pengeditan dan produksi adalah Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Brendan Coates, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Shakira Jones, Alex Sienaert, Violeta Vulovic and Michele Savini Zangrandi. Dukungan administrasi diberikan oleh Titi Ananto dan Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Diseminasi dilakukan oleh Dini Sari Djalal, Farhana Asnap, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan, Nugroho, Marcellinus Winata dan Randy Salim. Edisi ini juga mencakup kontribusi dari Alex Sienaert (Bagian B.1 paket kebijakan pemerintah), Natalia Cubillos Salcedo dan Henry Sandee (Bagian B.2 dwell time peti kemas di Tanjung Priok), Ahya Ihsan dan Bill Wallace (Direktur, AIPEG) (Bagian C.1 investasi bidang infrastruktur), dan Samer Al-Samarrai (Bagian C.2. tata kelola pemerintah daerah dan kinerja pendidikan). Masukkan utama juga diterima dari Djauhari Sitorus, Pamitra Wineka dan The Fei Ming (sektor perbankan, kredit dan korporasi), Ririn Purnamasari dan Matthew Wai-Poi (BLSM dan angka kemiskinan terkini), Rubino Sugana (penerimaan publik), Mark Ahern, Enda Ginting dan Hari Purnomo (pelaksanaan anggaran), dan Yue Man Lee, Mattia Makovec, Arvind Nair, Sjamsu Rahardja, Connor Spreng dan Della Temenggung (paket kebijakan pemerintah), Wahyoe Soedarmono, Paul Lemaistre dan Jon Sariaatmadja (investasi bidang infrastruktur). Deepak Mishra, David Hawes dan Roland Rajah (AusAID), dan Bill Wallace (AIPEG) juga memberikan tambahan masukan yang penting. Dokumen ini diterjemahkan ke dalam Bahasa Indonesia oleh Nicolas Novianto dan diedit oleh Magda Adriani, Arsianti, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Soekarno Wirokartono, Petra Wiyakti Bodrogini dan Mohamad Adhi Prakorso Dipo. Laporan ini disusun oleh para staf International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Bank Dunia, dengan dukungan pendanaan dari Pemerintah Australia - AusAID melalui program Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA). Temuan-temuan, interpretasi dan kesimpulan-kesimpulan yang dinyatakan di dalam laporan ini tidak mencerminkan pandangan AusAID dan Pemerintah Australia, para Direktur Pelaksana Bank Dunia atau pemerintah yang diwakilinya. Bank Dunia tidak menjamin ketepatan data-data yang termuat dalam laporan ini. Batas-batas, warna, denominasi dan informasi-informasi lain yang digambarkan pada setiap peta di dalam laporan ini tidak mencerminkan pendapat Bank Dunia mengenai status hukum dari wilayah atau dukungan atau penerimaan dari batas-batas tersebut. Foto sampul depan dan bagian dalam diambil oleh Josh Estey dan Ed Wrey, dan tim pendidikan Bank Dunia, dan merupakan Hak Cipta Bank Dunia. Semua Hak Cipta dilindungi. Untuk mendapatkan lebih banyak analisa Bank Dunia terhadap ekonomi Indonesia: Untuk informasi mengenai Bank Dunia serta kegiatannya di Indonesia, silakan berkunjung ke website ini www.worldbank.org/id Untuk mendapatkan publikasi ini melalui e-mail, silakan menghubungi madriani@worldbank.org. Untuk pertanyaan dan saran berkaitan dengan publikasi ini, silakan menghubungi asienaert@worldbank.org. Daftar Isi RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF: PENYESUAIAN BERLANJUT ............................................... I  A. PERKEMBANGAN EKONOMI DAN FISKAL TERKINI ............................................... 1  1.  Gejolak pasar internasional dengan meningkatnya biaya pendanaan eksternal ...................................... 1  2.  Ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan akan terus melambat di 2014............................................................... 3  3.  Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia terus berlanjut walau terjadi perlambatan impor................ 9  4.  Rupiah telah melemah dan kondisi pembiayaan mengetat .................................................................... 13  5.  Inflasi telah meningkat karena kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi .......................................................... 17  6.  Risiko fiskal dari beban subsidi energi kembali meningkat ................................................................... 19  7.  Penetapan kebijakan dan kemajuan reformasi yang berjalan dapat memainkan peran penting sejalan dengan penyesuaian neraca eksternal ..................................................................................................... 24  B. BEBERAPA PERKEMBANGAN TERKINI PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA .......... 26  1.  Paket kebijakan Pemerintah yang diumumkan pada bulan Agustus ..................................................... 26  a. Langkah-langkah untuk mendukung investasi asing langsung ........................................................................... 27  b. Langkah-langkah memperbaiki defisit neraca berjalan dan menjaga stabilitas Rupiah ..................................... 28  c. Langkah-langkah untuk mendukung ketenagakerjaan ........................................................................................ 28  d. Langkah-langkah untuk menurunkan inflasi ....................................................................................................... 29  e. Menilai paket kebijakan ........................................................................................................................................ 30 2.  Meningkatkan konektivitas melalui peningkatan kinerja pelabuhan..................................................... 31  a. Peningkatan kinerja pelabuhan: kunci untuk membuka perdagangan ................................................................ 31  b. Melawan dibawah tekanan untuk tetap melaju .................................................................................................... 33  c. Apa saja tantangan utamanya? .............................................................................................................................. 34  d. Sejumlah langkah-langkah penting telah diambil untuk mengatasi keadaan tersebut… ................................... 36  e. …dan sejumlah upaya tindakan lebih lanjut telah diidentifikasi ......................................................................... 36  C. INDONESIA TAHUN 2014 DAN SELANJUTNYA: TINJAUAN PILIHAN ................ 38  1.  Memperkirakan stok aset tetap infrastruktur di Indonesia ..................................................................... 38  a. Investasi infrastruktur terhadap PDB telah menurun sejak 1997/98.................................................................... 39  b. Stok aset tetap infrastruktur Indonesia diperkirakan telah menurun dibandingkan total stok aset… ................ 40  c. …mempengaruhi lintasan pertumbuhan Indonesia ............................................................................................. 42 2.  Tata kelola pemerintah daerah dan kinerja pendidikan ......................................................................... 45  a. Pentingnya tata kelola pendidikan daerah untuk meningkatkan kinerja............................................................. 46  b. Survei Tata Kelola Pendidikan Daerah Indonesia (ILEG) ................................................................................... 46  c. Temuan utama dari survei ILEG .......................................................................................................................... 48  d. Tanpa penanganan kendala utama tata kelola, kinerja akan sulit meningkat ...................................................... 51  LAMPIRAN: INDIKATOR GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA ................................ 52  DAFTAR GAMBAR Gambar 1: Biaya pendanaan internasional naik tajam sejak triwulan yang lalu… 2  Gambar 2: …sementara harga komoditas, termasuk produk ekspor utama Indonesia, tetap tertekan 2  Gambar 3: Pertumbuhan PDB nominal turun tajam, sejalan dengan jatuhnya harga ekspor 4  Gambar 4: Sementara investasi pergedungan terus meningkat kuat, belanja investasi lainnya menurun tajam… 5  Gambar 5: …namun lebih ketatnya kebijakan moneter tampaknya akan makin membebani investasi pergedungan 5  Gambar 6: Data historis menunjukkan bahwa pemilu nasional selalu mendorong peningkatan pertumbuhan konsumsi 6  Gambar 7: Volume ekspor semakin pulih, sementara impor masih tetap melemah 6  Gambar 8: Data frekuensi tinggi menunjukkan melemahnya permintaan konsumen… 7  Gambar 9: …sementara impor modal telah lemah 7  Gambar 10: Pertumbuhan PDB riil diperkirakan akan melambat 7  Gambar 11: Defisit neraca berjalan melebar ke 9.8 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan dua, saat neraca barang defisit… 9  Gambar 12: …dengan penurunan harga menghambat penerimaan ekspor komoditas, walau volume meningkat 9  Gambar 13: Impor barang-barang konsumen dan BBM mendorong naiknya impor agregat sebelum Ramadhan 10  Gambar 14: Aliran FDI tampaknya akan terpengaruh oleh melemahnya penerimaan komoditas 10  Gambar 15: Permintaan impor diperkirakan akan terus melambat sejalan dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan permintaan dalam negeri memasuki tahun 2014 11  Gambar 16: Kebutuhan pendanaan eksternal bruto tetap besar dan risiko likuiditas telah meningkat… 12  Gambar 17: Rupiah mencatat depresiasi yang signifikan secara nominal tetapi tidak secara riil sejak 2011… 13  Gambar 18: …diikuti masalah likuiditas dolar AS, seperti ditunjukkan selisih spread antara dalam dan luar negeri 13  Gambar 19: Rendahnya persetujuan kredit baru menunjukkan perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit ke depan… 15  Gambar 20: …sementara perlambatan pertumbuhan tabungan juga membebani kegiatan pinjaman 15  Gambar 21: Perusahaan Indonesia menghadapi peningkatan biaya pendanaan luar negeri 16  Gambar 22: Inflasi naik tajam pada awal kuartal 3 karena dorongan harga BBM dan bahan pangan… 17  Gambar 23: …menyebabkan peningkatan kecil pada inflasi inti 17  Gambar 24: Inflasi inti kembali normal dengan cepat pasca naiknya harga BBM bersubsidi pada tahun 2005 dan 2008 18  Gambar 25: Harga sejumlah bahan pangan naik karena pembatasan perdagangan dan bulan Ramadhan… 18  Gambar 26: Inflasi yoy diproyeksikan mencapai puncaknya pada kuartal 4 19  Gambar 27: Perkiraan pertumbuhan PDB peka terhadap prospek investasi 25  Gambar 28: Indonesia tertinggal dari negara Asia lain dalam biaya dan kecepatan logistik… 32  Gambar 29: …dan waktu tinggal peti kemas di pelabuhan terpenting, Tanjung Priok, terus meningkat 32  Gambar 30: Komponen waktu tinggal peti kemas dan pemangku kepentingan utama 33  Gambar 31: Proses impor di Tanjung Priok 34  Gambar 32: Tahap hulu menjadi tantangan utama bagi keseluruhan waktu tinggal peti kemas 35  Gambar 33: Ketidaksesuaian antara kedatangan peti kemas dan PIB menunjukkan tantangan sistem 24/7 35  Gambar 34: Tingkat investasi infrastruktur terhadap PDB telah turun kecuali pada pemerintah daerah 39  Gambar 35: Pertumbuhan riil stok aset keseluruhan jauh lebih cepat dibandingkan pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur.… 42  Gambar 36: …mengakibatkan penurunan rasio stok aset infrastruktur dibanding jumlah keseluruhannya 42  Gambar 37: Investasi aset infrastruktur lebih besar terkait dengan lintasan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi 43  Gambar 38: Pemerintah daerah membiayai sebagian besar pendanaan bagi pendidikan dasar 46  Gambar 39: Kualitas tata kelola pendidikan daerah yang lebih tinggi berkaitan dengan kinerja pendidikan yang lebih baik 48  Gambar 40: Peningkatan kecil pada tata kelola pendidikan secara keseluruhan namun menunjukkan pergeseran yang besar pada beberapa dimensi 48  Gambar 41: Kapasitas daerah dalam mencatat dan melakukan sosialisasi praktik terbaik telah menurun 49  Gambar 42: Sejumlah aspek proses perencanaan dan penganggaran daerah telah meningkat 50  DAFTAR LAMPIRAN GAMBAR Lampiran Gambar 1: Pertumbuhan PDB triwulanan dan tahunan 52  Lampiran Gambar 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB pengeluaran 52  Lampiran Gambar 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB produksi 52  Lampiran Gambar 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil 52  Lampiran Gambar 5: Indikator konsumen 52  Lampiran Gambar 6: Indikator industri penjualan 52  Lampiran Gambar 7: Arus perdagangan riil 53  Lampiran Gambar 8: Neraca pembayaran 53  Lampiran Gambar 9: Ekspor barang 53  Lampiran Gambar 10: Impor barang 53  Lampiran Gambar 11: Cadangan devisa dan arus masuk modal 53  Lampiran Gambar 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter 53  Lampiran Gambar 13: Rincian bulanan IHK 54  Lampiran Gambar 14: Perbandingan inflasi beberapa negara 54  Lampiran Gambar 15: Harga beras domestik dan internasional 54  Lampiran Gambar 16: Tingkat kemiskinan dan pengangguran 54  Lampiran Gambar 17: Indeks saham regional 54  Lampiran Gambar 18: Indeks dolar AS dan Nilai tukar rupiah 54  Lampiran Gambar 19: Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah 5-tahunan dalam mata uang lokal 55  Lampiran Gambar 20: Spread obligasi dolar AS pemerintah EMBI 55  Lampiran Gambar 21: Pinjaman international perbankan komersial 55  Lampiran Gambar 22: Indikator sektor perbankan 55  Lampiran Gambar 23: Hutang pemerintah 55  Lampiran Gambar 24: Hutang luar negeri 55  DAFTAR TABEL Tabel 1: Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diproyeksikan akan melambat menjadi 5,3 persen pada tahun 2014 iii  Tabel 2: Menurut skenario baseline, pertumbuhan PDB diproyeksikan 5,6 persen untuk 2013 dan 5,3 persen untuk 2014 8  Tabel 3: …dengan aliran masuk modal investasi sebagai kunci prospek keseluruhan neraca pembayaran, dimana defisit neraca berjalan akan menyusut secara perlahan 12  Tabel 4: Pertumbuhan penerimaan melambat pada periode Jan – Agu 2013 dibanding tahun- tahun yang lalu 20  Tabel 5: Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit fiskal 2,5 persen tahun 2013, naik dari 2,1 persen pada IEQ Juli 2013 22  Tabel 6: Depresiasi Rupiah atau kenaikan harga minyak sebesar 10 persen berdampak langsung terhadap defisit APBN setidaknya sebesar 0,4 poin persentase dari PDB 23  Tabel 7: Tingkat pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur peka terhadap asumsi tingkat awal stok aset infrastruktur dan tingkat depresiasi (penyusutan) 41  Tabel 8: Penelitian terpilih tentang perkiraan elastisitas perubahan output terhadap perubahan aset infrastruktur 43  DAFTAR LAMPIRAN TABEL Lampiran Tabel 1: Realisasi dan anggaran belanja Pemerintah 56  Lampiran Tabel 2: Neraca Pembayaran 56  Lampiran Tabel 3: Sekilas tentang perkembangan indikator ekonomi makro Indonesia 57  Lampiran Tabel 4: Sekilas indikator pembangunan Indonesia 58  DAFTAR KOTAK Kotak 1: Perkembangan terkini tentang bantuan langsung tunai dan tingkat kemiskinan 21  Kotak 2: Dampak fiskal dari perubahan kurs tukar Rupiah dan harga minyak 23  Kotak 3: Sensitivitas pertumbuhan PDB terhadap investasi 25  Kotak 4: Catatan metodologi dalam menghitung stok aset infrastruktur di Indonesia 41  Kotak 5: Studi empiris tentang hubungan antara stok aset infrastruktur dan publik dan pertumbuhan 43  Kotak 6: Pengaruh dana hibah untuk pengembangan kapasitas yang diberikan kepada dinas pendidikan daerah 50  Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Ringkasan eksekutif: Penyesuaian berlanjut Perekonomian Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sedang melambat, dibebani oleh dampak kumulatif dari Indonesia sedang perlemahan harga-harga komoditas utama yang telah berlangsung sejak tahun 2011 oleh mengalami pengetatan kondisi keuangan dalam dan luar negeri, dan oleh tantangan kebijakan. penyesuaian yang Bersamaan dengan itu, kebutuhan pendanaan eksternal telah meningkat, sebagian karena cukup berarti, melebarnya defisit neraca berjalan. Laju penyesuaian perkembangan-perkembangan ini telah didorong oleh meningkat dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Bersama dengan peekonomian berkembang perlemahan neraca utama (emerging market economies/EMEs) lainnya, pasar keuangan Indonesia mencatat gejolak eksternal… yang cukup besar, dengan nilai tukar Rupiah yang mengalami depresiasi yang cukup besar terhadap dolar AS. Pengaturan kebijakan juga tanggap terhadap penyesuaian ini, misalnya dengan adanya pengetatan kebijakan moneter. …yang membawa Berdasarkan berbagai perkembangan tersebut, proyeksi Bank Dunia untuk pertumbuhan perlambatan Indonesia tahun 2014 telah diturunkan menjadi 5,3 persen – masih relatif kokoh, tetapi suatu pertumbuhan dan penurunan yang cukup berarti dalam prospek ekonomi jangka pendek. Penyesuaian ekonomi peningkatan fokus yang sedang berlangsung saat ini juga membawa risiko-risiko penurunan laju pertumbuhan terhadap kebijakan yang lebih besar, dan berlangsung lebih lama, dengan tidak adanya dukungan dari pendanaan internasional berbiaya rendah dan permintaan yang kuat terhadap komoditas. Hal ini menunjukkan pentingnya keberlanjutan penyesuaian kebijakan ekonomi makro, melanjutkan upaya yang sedang berjalan untuk meningkatkan daya saing dan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan, dan memberikan perlindungan untuk kaum rentan dari dampak perlambatan pertumbuhan dan kejutan ekonomi dimasa depan. Gejolak pasar Beberapa bulan terakhir telah mencatat gejolak pasar keuangan internasional yang cukup keuangan internasional berarti, yang dipicu oleh prospek normalisasi kebijakan moneter secara bertahap di Amerika telah menjadi Serikat. Aliran investasi portofolio dan biaya pendanaan hutang dan investasi di EMEs, perhatian, walau termasuk Indonesia, mencatat reaksi yang secara tiba-tiba terhadap kenaikan tajam suku pertumbuhan dunia bunga AS. Pada saat bersamaan, dan merupakan salah satu kontributor terhadap gejolak saat ini semakin pasar yang belakangan terjadi, adalah penguatan umum kinerja perekonomian maju dengan mendukung… berlanjutnya proses pemulihan. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA i Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …namun harga-harga Sebagian mencerminankan prospek perlambatan investasi dan pertumbuhan di China, harga- komoditas utama tetap harga komoditas internasional pada umumnya tetap berada di bawah tekanan, dengan tertekan, kecuali pengecualian utama harga minyak mentah dunia bagi Indonesia. Indeks harga dolar AS yang minyak bumi … diboboti ekspor untuk enam komoditas ekspor utama Indonesia (yang mencapai hampir setengah dari seluruh jumlah ekspor) turun sebesar 8 persen pada tahun berjalan 2013 hingga akhir bulan Agustus, yang merupakan 35 persen lebih rendah dari nilai puncaknya setelah tahun 2008/09 di bulan Januari 2011. Harga minyak mentah Brent, sebaliknya, meningkat sebesar 7 persen dari bulan Januari 2011 ke Agustus 2013, dan umumnya mencatat pergerakan yang datar selama tahun 2013. Perbedaan antara harga energi dan non-energi dunia ini menjadi pendorong yang penting dari perlemahan neraca perdagangan Indonesia sejak tahun 2011, dan memberikan tekanan tambahan terhadap posisi fiskal Pemerintah. … yang membawa Pertumbuhan ekonomi global akan terus meningkat, dengan para mitra perdagangan utama tantangan terhadap Indonesia akan bertumbuh sebesar 3,4 persen pada 2013, sama dengan tingkat pada 2012 neraca eksternal tetapi mncerminkan kenaikan pada paruh kedua 2013, dan naik menjadi 3.9 persen pada Indonesia tahun 2014. Namun dalam proyeksi dasar, harga-harga komoditas diproyeksikan tidak bergerak menjadi lebih mendukung nilai tukar perdagangan(terms of trade) Indonesia. Lebih lanjut, dengan pasar keuangan dunia terus menyesuaikan diri terhadap dampak penurunan akomodasi moneter di negara maju, gejolak aliran modal, dan biaya pendanaan eksternal, tampaknya akan tetap bertahan tinggi, baik bagi Indonesia maupun EMEs lainnya. Penyesuaian ekonomi dan kebijakan Indonesia terhadap melemahnya neraca eksternal, yang kini sedang berlangsung, tampaknya akan tetap menjadi pusat perhatian. Pertumbuhan Pelemahan permintaan memainkan peran yang penting dalam menggerakkan neraca berjalan, melambat di triwulan dan kebutuhan pendanaan eksternal secara keseluruhan, seiring dengan kondisi-kondisi kedua, walaupun pendanaan eksternal yang lebih ketat. Ekonomi Indonesia telah melambat sejauh ini di tahun demikian Indonesia 2013, dengan pertumbuhan investasi menjadi penyebab utama. Pertumbuhan ekonomi pada mencatat defisit neraca triwulan kedua mencapai 5,8 persen, berada di bawah angka 6.0 persen untuk pertama berjalan yang cukup kalinya sejak tahun 2010. Walau permintaan dalam negeri mulai melemah, faktor-faktor lebar musiman, bersama-sama dengan berlanjutnya perlemahan dalam penerimaan ekspor, berkontribusi kepada pelebaran yang mengejutkan dalam defisit neraca berjalan triwulanan Indonesia menjadi 4,4 persen dari PDB. Data-data tersebut, dan reaksi-reaksi investor yang telah menyeimbangkan kembali portofolio mereka lebih condong kepada aset-aset perekonomian berpenghasilan tinggi, memberikan tekanan yang besar terhadap Rupiah menjelang akhir bulan Agustus. Tekanan itu berkontribusi terhadap keputusan Bank Indonesia untuk meningkatkan suku bunga lebih lanjut, sehingga kenaikan BI Rate sejak bulan Juni telah mencapai 150 basis poin, dan juga mengumumkan aturan kehati-hatian kebijakan makro (macro-prudential) tambahan untuk menurunkan pertumbuhan kredit dan kebijakan baru untuk mendukung likuiditas transaksi valas, yang telah berkurang. Pertumbuhan PDB Sejalan dengan perkembangan-perkembangan yang terjadi, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diproyeksikan akan diproyeksikan akan mengalami perlambatan yang lebih besar menjadi 5,3 persen pada tahun melambat dan defisit 2014, turun dari 5,6 persen pada tahun 2013(Tabel 1). Proyeksi ini menurun dibandingkan neraca berjalan akan dengan proyeksi pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Juli 2013 dengan penurunan pertumbuhan sedikit menyempit menjadi 5,9 persen untuk 2013 dan naik menjadi 6,2 persen pada tahun 2014. Defisit neraca pada tahun 2014… berjalan diproyeksikan akan tetap besar, walau dengan sedikit penyempitan, menjadi 2,6 persen dari PDB pada tahun 2014. Setelah didorong naik secara sementara oleh peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni, inflasi diperkirakan akan mencapai puncaknya secara tahunan pada triwulan terakhir tahun 2013, dan dengan tidak adanya kejutan dorongan biaya (cost-push) yang cukup berarti, inflasi akan turun ke rata-rata 6,7 persen yoy pada 2014. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA ii Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 1: Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diproyeksikan akan melambat menjadi 5,3 persen pada tahun 2014 2011 2012 2013p 2014p (Persen perubahan PDB riil 6,5 6,2 5,6 5,3 tahunan) (Persen perubahan Indeks harga konsumen 5,4 4,3 7,3 6,7 tahunan) Defisit neraca berjalan (Persen dari PDB) 0,2 -2,8 -3,4 -2,6 Defisit/surplus anggaran (Persen dari PDB) -1,1 -1,9 -2,5 -2,3 (Persen perubahan PDB mitra dagang utama 3,6 3,4 3,4 3,9 tahunan) Sumber: BI, BPS, Kementrian Keuangan, Proyeksi staf Bank Dunia …tetapi risiko-risiko Risiko penurunan terhadap prospek ekonomi cukup besar. Risiko-risiko dalam negeri terhadap penurunan bersumber dari dampak yang lebih besar dari yang diperkirakan terhadap permintaan dalam tetap tinggi … negeri dari kenaikan harga-harga, suku bunga yang lebih tinggi, dan dampak negatif harga saham terhadap kegiatan investasi dan kekayaan korporasi, dan terutama gejolak kurs valuta yang tercatat sejak bulan Mei. Risiko-risiko eksternal terhadap prospek terpusat pada perkembangan harga komoditas bukan minyak, harga bahan bakar internasional dan situasi pendanaan eksternal. Sebagian besar juga bergantung pada perkembangan ekonomi China, permintaan akan investasi dan kualitas tanggapan kebijakan di negara maju maupun berkembang, dengan menyusutnya likuiditas global. Jika faktor-faktor tersebut menunjukkan perkembangan ka arah yang positif, dan kemungkinan pemulihan ekonomi global yang lebih baik dari yang diperkirakan sampai akhir 2014, dapat meningkatkan propek pertumbuhan Indonesia dan dapat mendukung posisi neraca eksternal, asalkan Indonesia dapat memanfaatkan kesempatan menguatnya perdagangan global dan pergerakan investasi. …menekankan Pengaturan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter Indonesia akan terus memainkan peran utama pentingnya dalam memfasilitasi penyesuaian yang sedang berlangsung dan meminimalkan risiko-risiko berkelanjutan terkait. Namun terdapat pilihan yang sulit yang harus diambil (trade-off) antara tujuan fleksibilitas kebijakan meredam laju inflasi, mendorong pertumbuhan, dan menyesuaikan defisit neraca berjalan ke ekonomi makro untuk lingkungan pendanaan yang lebih ketat. Kebijakan moneter menghadapi tantangan dalam memfasilitasi menyesuaikan suku bunga dan kurs tukar untuk memberi perlindungan terhadap penyesuaian jangka peningkatan tekanan inflasi dengan meningkatnya tekanan biaya (seperti pengaruh lanjutan pendek… depresiasi kurs atau kenaikan upah) sementara memfasilitasi perbaikan neraca eksternal, tanpa terlalu menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan perlemahan posisi neraca pemerintah dan swasta. Sejalan dengan sedang berlangsungnya pembahasan APBN 2014 dengan DPR, kebijakan fiskal menghadapi tantangan perlambatan pertumbuhan penerimaan dan peningkatan biaya pendanaan hutang nominal, yang semakin menekankan pentingnya upaya meningkatkan kualitas belanja dan penerimaan. Menjaga kehati-hatian posisi fiskal secara keseluruhan, terkoordinasi dengan pengetatan kebijakan moneter, dapat membantu menanggulangi tantangan ini. Bertolak dari kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni, reformasi lebih lanjut dari sistem subsidi energi yang tidak efisien dan distortif dapat memainkan peran penting dalam membebaskan belanja untuk pengeluaran pembangunan utama, seperti untuk infrastruktur dan kesehatan, dan juga membatasi timbulnya risiko fiskal yang besar dari gejolak kurs tukar valuta atau kejutan harga minyak dunia. …menurunkan Dengan adanya ketidakpastian dari perlambatan momentum pertumbuhan, dan kondisi ketidakpastian melalui pendanaan eksternal yang bergejolak dan umumnya mengetat, menjaga komunikasi yang komunikasi dan kuat terhadap perubahan kebijakan dan menitikberatkan pada implementasi dapat membantu perencanaan darurat… mendukung tingkat kepercayaan. Kebijakan juga memainkan peran untuk memitigasi dampak negatif skenario-skenario yang lebih buruk, jika risiko-risiko tersebut terjadi. Pemerintah telah berupaya meningkatkan kesiagaan krisisnya dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Mekanisme pemantauan dan tanggapan sudah disiapkan untuk memfasilitasi tanggapan yang fleksibel terhadap gejolak pasar yang besar. Pemerintah memiliki dana fiskal darurat senilai 5 miliar dolar AS bila terjadi penurunan kondisi pembiayaan yang signifikan, sementara Bank Indonesia baru-baru ini telah mendapat tambahan pertukaran (swap) bilateral dalam dolar AS. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA iii Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dan terus Tekanan terhadap neraca eksternal dan pertumbuhan yang belakangan terjadi menjadi mendorong kemajuan pengingat akan adanya kebutuhan bagi upaya lebih lanjut dalam meningkatkan keragaman reformasi untuk (diversifikasi) ekspor Indonesia dan meningkatkan daya saing perekonomian untuk meningkatkan laju mendukung laju pertumbuhan dan pembangunan yang lebih cepat. Depresiasi Rupiah yang pertumbuhan kini terjadi akan memberikan dorongan jangka pendek terhadap daya saing, namun berkelanjutan dampaknya hanya akan bertahan bila tidak dipengaruhi oleh tekanan harga dalam negeri, Indonesia seperti yang berasal dari kenaikan upah, dan jika kebijakan-kebijakan dan investasi ditempatkan untuk meningkatkan fleksibilitas dari sisi penawaran ekonomi. Dengan demikian upaya-upaya untuk meningkatkan daya saing dan lingkungan peraturan dapat membantu meringankan tekanan pendanaan eksternal jangka pendek dengan memberi stimulus kepada ekspor dan mendorong penanaman modal asing langsung (FDI) dan juga membantu meningkatkan kesempatan kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang. Paket kebijakan Sebagai tanggapan terhadap meningkatnya tekanan pasar keuangan, dan bersamaan dengan Pemerintah yang tekanan kebijakan moneter yang disinggung sebelumnya, pada tanggal 23 Agustus 2013 diumumkan pada 23 Pemerintah mengumumkan suatu paket kebijakan yang berisi aturan-aturan yang bertujuan Agustus berisi aturan untuk memperbaiki neraca berjalan, menjaga daya beli dan memfasilitasi pertumbuhan, yang bertujuan untuk membatasi tekanan inflasi, dan menjaga aliran investasi. Sejumlah aturan termasuk mendukung ekspor pemberian usulan untuk meningkatkan kepastian dalam dunia usaha dan mencabut dan investasi, namun kebijakan-kebijakan perdagangan yang bersifat intervensionis. Namun rincian dan penerapan implementasi akan peraturan-peraturan itu, dan kontribusinya dalam mencapai penyesuaian yang dibutuhkan menjadi kuncinya pada neraca eksternal, masih belum terlihat. Sementara kepentingan politis dalam penyusunan kebijakan menjelang pemilu tampaknya akan semakin meningkat, juga terdapat kesempatan bagi penguatan reformasi dalam jangka pendek, dengan adanya potensi biaya dan konsekuensi bila tidak melakukannya dengan kondisi perekonomian saat ini. Dalam jangka pendek, Upaya-upaya untuk meningkatkan konektivitas internasional Indonesia memiliki peran yang peningkatan sangat penting dalam meningkatkan daya saing ekspor Indonesia dan mendorong investasi. konektivitas Salah satu tantangan praktis utama untuk meningkatkan konektivitas internasional Indonesia internasional, seperti adalah menurunkan waktu tunggu (dwell time) pada pelabuhan Indonesia yang paling utama, pada kinerja logistik Tanjung Priok (yang menangani lebih dari dua per tiga perdagangan internasional Indonesia), pelabuhan Tanjung yang telah meningkat hampir dua kali lipat bagi peti kemas yang tiba di pelabuhan itu sejak Priok, pintu gerbang awal tahun 2011, menjadi rata-rata lebih dari sepuluh hari pada bulan Agustus. Sejumlah utama Indonesia, langkah-langkah penting telah diambil untuk mengatasi keadaan itu. Tambahan reformasi dapat memberikan peraturan dan peningkatan prosedural dapat semakin menurunkan waktu proses hulu, dorongan peningkatan misalnya dengan meningkatkan penggunaan jalur kepabeanan khusus dan proses kepabeanan daya saing secara paralel, dan juga memberikan insentif bagi penyerahan dini surat pemberitahuan impor barang dan meningkatkan kinerja sistem Indonesian National Single Window. Tingkat dan kualitas Seperti telah disadari oleh Pemerintah, perbaikan infrastruktur fisik dapat memecahkan salah belanja infrastruktur satu kendala terhadap daya saing dan laju pertumbuhan Indonesia secara berkelanjutan. tetap menjadi penentu Infrastruktur yang lebih baik juga dapat meningkatkan hasil pembangunan, seperti di bidang utama bagi kinerja kesehatan dan pendidikan, dengan meningkatkan aksesibilitas. Data terbaru yang dihimpun perdagangan dan Bank Dunia menunjukkan bahwa tambahan investasi terhadap stok infrastruktur di pertumbuhan jangka Indonesia belum mencukupi sejak krisis keuangan Asia, menyebabkan stok infrastruktur panjang menurun dibandingkan total stok investasi dan ekonomi. Dalam jangka waktu 2001-2011, simulasi awal menunjukkan bahwa jika pertumbuhan tahunan stok infrastruktur naik menjadi 5 persen, dibanding tingkat perkiraan aktuil sebesar 3 persen, dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan PDB tahunan rata-rata menjadi 5,8 persen, atau 0,5 persen di atas rata-rata aktuil, sehingga nilai nominal PDB pada tahun 2011 lebih tinggi sebesar 5 persen. Sementara hasil tersebut peka terhadap asumsi-asumsi yang digunakan, mereka tetap menunjuk akan perlunya meningkatkan kuantitas dan kualitas investasi publik. Melanjutkan kenaikan alokasi anggaran infrastruktur dapat berperan, namun keberlanjutan fiskal dan persaingan untuk pendanaan program prioritas juga sangat menekankan pada efisiensi, termasuk memastikan kelancaran operasional dan pemeliharaan infrastruktur yang ada, dan usaha selanjutnya meningkatkan pengelolaan investasi publik. Memperbaiki ketersediaan dan kualitas data di bidang ini yang dapat memberikan masukan untuk kebijakan juga sangat dibutuhkan. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA iv Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kinerja pendidikan Hal penting lainnya bagi pertumbuhan, yang juga merupakan sasaran pembangunan utama, juga sangat penting adalah modal manusia Indonesia – ilmu pengetahuan dan keahlian penduduknya. Dalam bagi pembangunan, lima belas tahun terakhir, Indonesia telah meluncurkan paket reformasi pendidikan yang yang membutuhkan menyeluruh yang dirancang untuk meningkatkan akses dan kualitas. Komponen utama dari lebih banyak perbaikan proses reformasi adalah pendelegasian kewenangan pendidikan dasar kepada pemerintah dan dalam tata kelola sekolah-sekolah di daerah, dan sehingga peningkatan dalam tata kelola dapat memainkan pemerintahan daerah peran yang penting dalam meningkatkan kualitas pendidikan dasar dan menjamin bahwa para murid dapat meninggalkan sekolah dengan bekal keterampilan yang memadai. Survei Tata Kelola Pendidikan Daerah di Indonesia (Indonesian Local Education Governance/ILEG), yang dilakukan pada tahun 2009 dan 2012, menunjukkan bahwa kualitas tata kelola pemerintah daerah merupakan faktor yang penting untuk meningkatkan kinerja pendidikan di daerah, sehingga sangatlah penting untuk terus menangani kendala-kendala tata kelola utama, dan untuk meningkatkan koordinasi dan integrasi pendanaan pemerintah pusat kedalam perencanaan pendidikan daerah. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA v Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia A. Perkembangan ekonomi dan fiskal terkini 1. Gejolak pasar internasional dengan meningkatnya biaya pendanaan eksternal Gejolak pasar Gambaran eksternal bagi Indonesia, dan ekonomi pasar berkembang (emerging market keuangan internasional economics, EME) lainnya, telah didominasi oleh gejolak pasar keuangan internasional, dan telah mengemuka … peningkatan biaya pendanaan eksternal, yang dipicu oleh prospek normalisasi bertahap kebijakan moneter di AS. Antara awal bulan Mei (dengan kuatnya spekulasi bahwa Bank Sentral AS akan memangkas program pembelian obligasinya) dan awal September (ketika dugaan pasar bahwa Bank Sentral AS akan mulai “mengurangi” pembeliannya pada bulan itu mencapai puncaknya), imbal hasil (yield) obligasi negara AS 10-tahun yang menjadi tolok ukur meningkat sebesar 135 basis poin, menjadi sedikit di bawah 3 persen, yang merupakan tingkat tertinggi sejak bulan Mei 2011. Sebagai tanggapannya, biaya pembiayaan hutang dan ekuitas bagi EME, termasuk Indonesia, naik tajam (Gambar 1), dan aliran modal keluar mulai terlihat. …walau kondisi Perkembangan pasar juga mencerminkan berlanjutnya penguatan pertumbuhan pada ekonomi negara- perekonomian negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi. Zona Eropa bangkit dari resesi negara berpenghasilan panjangnya pada triwulan kedua, dan ekonomi Jepang dan AS meningkat dengan laju yang tinggi mulai kokoh. Data triwulan ketiga menunjukkan bahwa keadaan positif itu terus berlanjut, dan membaik… peningkatan diperkirakan akan terus berlanjut, dengan perekonomian negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi melanjutkan pemulihannya dari krisis keuangan dunia tahun 2008/09 dan dampak paska krisis tersebut. Pemulihan yang masih berlangsung ini dapat mendukung ekspor Indonesia, baik secara langsung (karena hampir sepertiga ekspor dikirimkan ke Zona Eropa, Jepang dan AS) dan secara tidak langsung, melalui pengaruh dari permintaan global dan harga ekspor Indonesia. Namun prospek dari mitra-mitra perdagangan Indonesia menunjukkan gambaran beragam. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 1 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …yang menambah Penjualan besar-besaran di pasar saham dan valuta lebih besar terjadi di negara EME yang gambaran beragam membutuhkan pembiayaan neraca berjalan yang cukup besar, terutama Brasil, Turki, Afrika terhadap ekonomi Selatan, India dan Indonesia. Namun sebagian dari tekanan jual yang dialami pasar-pasar negara-negara berkembang hingga awal September dapat disebabkan oleh dampak harga dari mengecilnya berkembang utama … perbedaan pertumbuhan antara ekonomi berpenghasilan tinggi dan berkembang, yang mencerminkan percepatan pertumbuhan pada ekonomi berpenghasilan tinggi seperti yang didiskusikan dan perlambatan pada ekonomi berkembang. Hal ini, bersama-sama dengan perkiraan akan semakin berkurangnya likuiditas global, memberikan gambaran kombinasi yang menantang bagi banyak EME, dan prospek mitra perdagangan utama Indonesia yang merupakan negara berkembang, memang beragam. China (yang menjadi tujuan dari sekitar 11 persen ekspor Indonesia, dan pendorong utama harga komoditas dunia) tampaknya berada pada jalur yang tepat untuk mencapai sasaran pertumbuhan resminya sebesar 7,5 persen pada tahun 2013, sedikit lebih rendah dari 7,8 persen pada tahun 2012, sementara pertumbuhan telah merosot secara signifikan di India (yang merupakan 7 persen dari jumlah ekspor Indonesia dan merupakan pasar utama bagi produk-produk ekspor tertentu, seperti batu bara dan minyak sawit). …sementara harga- Secara umum harga-harga komoditas internasional telah melemah pada beberapa bulan harga komoditas non- terakhir, yang dipengaruhi oleh menguatnya nilai dolar AS, dengan pengecualian utama energi terus menurun adalah harga minyak dunia (yang terpengaruh oleh kekhawatiran konflik di Syria). Indeks harga ekspor dalam dolar AS untuk enam komoditas ekspor utama Indonesia (yang merupakan hampir setengah dari seluruh jumlah ekspor) turun sebesar 8 persen pada tahun 2013 hingga akhir bulan Agustus, menjadi 35 persen lebih rendah dari puncaknya paska tahun 2008/09 yang terjadi pada bulan Januari 2011 (Gambar 2). Harga minyak mentah Brent, sebaliknya, naik sebesar 7 persen dari bulan Januari 2011 hingga Agustus 2013, dan relatif datar selama tahun berjalan. Perbedaan tren antara harga energi dan non-energi dunia sejak tahun 2011 ini sangat berbeda dari korelasi yang biasanya lebih dekat, dan merupakan satu aspek utama dari penurunan neraca perdagangan Indonesia secara signifikan sejak tahun 2011 (lihat Bagian 3), dan menambah tekanan fiskal dengan adanya pengeluaran untuk subsidi energi. Gambar 1: Biaya pendanaan internasional naik tajam sejak Gambar 2: …sementara harga komoditas, termasuk produk triwulan yang lalu… ekspor utama Indonesia, tetap tertekan (yield, persen) (indeks harga dalam dolar AS, rata-rata tahun 2000 = 100) 16 500 Harga enegi 14 dunia 400 Indeks enam 12 Obligasi negara berkembang dalam komoditas ekspor dolar AS (EMBIG) utama Indonesia 10 Obligasi negara Indonesia 300 dalam dolar AS (sub-indeks 8 EMBIG) 200 6 Harga komoditas 4 non-energi dunia 100 2 Obligasi pemerintah AS 5-tahun 0 0 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Sumber: JP Morgan Sumber: Bank Dunia dan perhitungan stafnya O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 2 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Pertumbuhan dunia Bank Dunia terus memperkirakan peningkatan ekonomi global, dengan peningkatan para diperkirakan akan mitra perdagangan utama Indonesia yang diproyeksikan akan tumbuh sebesar 3,4 persen semakin membaik, pada tahun 2013, dan naik menjadi 3,9 persen pada tahun 2014, mendorong permintaan bagi namun risiko tetap ekspor Indonesia. Namun risiko-risiko terhadap prospek ekonomi internasional yang tinggi ditengah gejolak seringkali saling berkaitan masih terus bertahan, baik untuk kenaikan maupun penurunan. pasar keuangan dan Sebagian besar bergantung pada perkembangan positif lintasan ekonomi-ekonomi negara peningkatan biaya berpenghasilan tinggi, prospek China, dan penghindaran dislokasi yang signifikan di negara- pendanaan luar negeri negara berpenghasilan tinggi dan berkembang dengan semakin menyusutnya likuiditas internasional. Dengan pasar keuangan yang terus menyesuikan terhadap implikasi penurunan akomodasi moneter di AS, gejolak investasi portofolio dan tingkat biaya pendanaan tampaknya akan tetap tinggi, bagi Indonesia maupun EME lainnya. 2. Ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan akan terus melambat di 2014 Pertumbuhan ekonomi Seperti dialami oleh banyak EME utama lainnya, ekonomi Indonesia telah melambat selama telah melambat sejauh tahun 2013, karena terbebani oleh perlemahan momentum investasi. Pertumbuhan pada ini pada tahun 2013 triwulan kedua mengalami penurunan menjadi 5,8 persen, tercatat pertama kali di bawah 6,0 dan diperkirakan akan persen sejak tahun 2010. Bank Dunia telah menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB-nya terus berlanjut untuk tahun 2013 menjadi 5,6 persen, turun dari proyeksi sebesar 5,9 persen pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Juli 2013, dan juga menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan tahun 2014 menjadi 5,3 persen dari 6,2 persen. Penurunan yang cukup besar untuk tahun 2014 mencerminkan prospek yang lebih lemah dari permintaan dalam negeri, dengan penyesuaian ekonomi terhadap lebih ketatnya kondisi pendanaan dan lebih rendahnya harga komoditas. Sementara harga ekspor, terutama bagi komoditas, diperkirakan akan tetap lemah, volume ekspor diperkirakan akan terus mencatat peningkatan yang tipis dengan semakin pulihnya laju pertumbuhan di negara-negara perekonomian maju. Pertumbuhan impor tampaknya akan terus menurun tipis, sejalan dengan prospek dari permintaan dalam negeri dan dampak (tertunda) dari depresiasi Rupiah. Karenanya, tidak seperti tahun 2012, ketika ekspor bersih menghambat pertumbuhan, kali ini ekspor bersih akan menambah pertumbuhan tahun 2013 dan 2014. Permintaan dalam Pertumbuhan PDB riil Indonesia melambat pada triwulan kedua tahun 2013, menjadi 5,8 negeri sedikit persen yoy (year on year/tahun ke tahun) dibanding 6,0 persen yoy pada triwulan pertama. melambat pada Pertumbuhan triwulanan setelah penyesuaian musiman sebesar 1,4 persen sedikit lebih tinggi triwulan kedua… dibanding pertumbuhan triwulan pertama sebesar 1,3 persen. Pada sisi pengeluaran, penurunan pertumbuhan investasi yang berkelanjutan merupakan pendorong utama moderasi yoy, walau terdapat beberapa kontribusi yang berasal dari konsumsi, dengan pertumbuhan permintaan secara keseluruhan melemah menjadi 4,7 persen yoy, dari 5,0 persen yoy pada triwulan pertama. Ekspor bersih dapat mengimbangi sebagian moderasi yang tercatat pada permintaan dalam negeri, dengan memberi tambahan kepada pertumbuhan di triwulan pertama tahun 2013, karena pertumbuhan volume ekspor terus meningkat dan melebihi peningkatan yang dicatat oleh impor. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 3 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dan pertumbuhan Hal yang lebih nyata adalah Gambar 3: Pertumbuhan PDB nominal turun tajam, PDB nominal tetap berlanjutnya penurunan sejalan dengan jatuhnya harga ekspor lemah, sejalan dengan pertumbuhan PDB nominal menjadi (pertumbuhan yoy, persen) rendahnya nilai tukar 7,8 persen yoy pada triwulan kedua, 30 perdagangan yang turun dari 8,6 persen pada triwulan pertama dan merupakan tingkat pertumbuhan yoy yang paling 20 PDB nominal rendah selama lebih dari tiga belas tahun (Gambar 3). Hal ini umumnya 10 terjadi karena penurunan deflator PDB umumnya sejalan dengan 0 penurunan yang tajam dalam nilai Deflator tukar perdagangan (terms of trade) PDB Deflator ekspor Indonesia sejak tahun 2011 dengan -10 melemahnya komoditas dunia. Deflator PDB tumbuh hanya 0,3 persen qoq (triwulan-ke-triwulan) dengan penyesuaian musiman dan Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia 1,8 persen yoy pada triwulan kedua, cukup jauh di bawah inflasi harga konsumen. Dengan harga komoditas dunia dan nominal nilai tukar Rupiah yang diperkirakan tidak akan menguat dalam skenario dasar, maka nilai tukar perdagangan, deflator PDB dan pertumbuhan PDB nominal tampaknya juga akan tetap lemah dalam jangka pendek. Kejutan negatif nilai tukar perdagangan, yang dampaknya terus berlangsung terhadap perekonomian sejak akhir 2011, akan terus membawa implikasi negatif yang signifikan bagi pertumbuhan penerimaan dan profitabilitas, terutama pada sektor-sektor dan wilayah yang berkaitan dengan komoditas. Pertumbuhan investasi Pertumbuhan investasi yang lebih lemah merupakan pendorong utama perlambatan terus melambat, pertumbuhan PDB riil. Secara yoy, pertumbuhan investasi mengalami moderasi menjadi 4.7 seiring dengan persen pada triwulan tersebut, turun dari 5,8 persen pada triwulan pertama dan 12,5 persen penurunan yang satu tahun yang lalu (triwulan kedua tahun 2012). Ada beberapa peningkatan dalam laju signifikan dalam pertumbuhan triwulanan (menjadi 2,4 persen qoq dengan penyesuaian musiman), walau sulit kegiatan yang untuk menarik kesimpulan dari pergerakan triwulanan karena sifat investasi yang besar berkaitan dengan (lumpy). Hingga saat ini sebagian besar perlemahan pertumbuhan investasi terjadi pada komoditas permesinan dan transportasi (Gambar 4), seperti tercermin dari penurunan impor barang- barang modal. Hal ini bersamaan dengan penurunan yang signifikan pada kegiatan yang berkaitan dengan komoditas, terutama secara nominal, yang menempatkan tekanan turun bagi penerimaan ekspor dan profitabilitas, yang membawa pengaruh terhadap penurunan investasi dan produksi. Sebaliknya, pertumbuhan investasi gedung riil (85 persen dari jumlah investasi) tetap kokoh namun dapat mendapattekanan tambahan kedepannya. …dan investasi Prospek investasi telah melemah sejak Triwulanan edisi bulan Juli. Biaya sejumlah faktor diperkirakan akan produksi (input) utama telah meningkat secara signifikan. Depresiasi Rupiah telah semakin melemah, menyebabkan kenaikan biaya impor, bagi barang-barang modal dan bahan bakar, dan upah dengan pengetatan minimum juga mencatat peningkatan yang besar. Seperti dibahas di bawah, kondisi kondisi kredit pendanaan dalam negeri telah mengetat dan, bagi perusahaan-perusahaan yang berhubungan diperkirakan akan dengan komoditas, cakupan pendanaan internal melalui laba yang ditahan perusahaan membebani investasi (retained earnings) telah dipengaruhi oleh penurunan harga-harga komoditas. Sejalan dengan pergedungan pengalaman historis, kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat diperkirakan akan memperkecil kredit dan investasi, memberikan tekanan terhadap investasi, termasuk investasi terkait pembangunan gedung (Gambar 5). Dengan pengalaman masa lalu yang menunjukkan pengaruh peningkatan suku bunga terhadap kegiatan ekonomi baru terlihat beberapa triwulan kemudian, maka dampak negatif terhadap kegiatan ekonomi, terutama investasi, akan paling banyak terjadi menjelang akhir tahun 2013 dan memasuki tahun 2014. Dengan adanya risiko investasi yang signifikan, seperti semakin ketatnya kondisi pendanaan ditambah dengan perubahan atau ketidakpastian peraturan perundangan, terutama dengan semakin tingginya tekanan siklus politis menjelang pemilu nasional, Kotak 3 menyoroti tingginya sensitivitas prospek pertumbuhan PDB untuk tahun 2014 terhadap lintasan investasi. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 4 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 4: Sementara investasi pergedungan terus Gambar 5: …namun lebih ketatnya kebijakan moneter meningkat kuat, belanja investasi lainnya menurun tajam… tampaknya akan makin membebani investasi pergedungan (pertumbuhan investasi yoy, persen) (pertumbuhan investasi pergedungan nominal dan kredit yoy, persen) 40 siklus pengetatan moneter 50 30 Investasi riil selain pergedungan 40 Kredit 20 nominal 30 10 20 Investasi riil pergedungan 10 0 Investasi pergedungan nominal 0 -10 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 -10 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Catatan: Siklus pengetatan moneter mencerminkan periode BI Rate meningkat (BI Rate, 2005-13; suku bunga SBI 30 hari, 2001-04) Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Prospek pertumbuhan Prospek pertumbuhan konsumsi juga telah menurun. Pertumbuhan konsumsi swasta sedikit konsumsi swasta juga meningkat pada triwulan kedua, naik menjadi 5,1 persen yoy. Peningkatan secara berurutan melemah dengan ini (sebesar 1,3 persen qoq dengan penyesuaan musiman) mencerminkan penguatan pada naiknya harga BBM, konsumsi bahan pangan (yang naik 1,0 persen qoq dengan penyesuaan musiman) dan bukan tetap tingginya harga pangan (naik 1,5 persen qoq dengan penyesuaan musiman), yang keduanya menerima bahan pangan dan dampak penurunan pada triwulan pertama dari peningkatan tajam harga bahan pangan, yang penurunan tingkat sebagian besar kini telah mencatat penurunan harga (lihat Bagian 5). Pertumbuhan konsumsi kepercayaan diperkirakan akan melambat pada triwulan ketiga, dengan harga BBM yang lebih tinggi dan konsumen tetap tingginya harga-harga sejumlah bahan pangan utama pada triwulan kedua dan ketiga diperkirakan akan membawa pengaruh negatif terhadap daya beli konsumen. Perkembangan ini mempengaruhi tingkat kepercayaan konsumen, dengan turunnya indeks kepercayaan konsumen BI pada bulan Juli and Agustus, memangkas peningkatan yang telah tercatat selama 18 bulan terakhir. Tingginya suku bunga, ketatnya kondisi kredit, rendahnya tingkat kepecayaan, dan dampak terhadap kekayaan/aset dari gejolak pasar keuangan yang belakangan terjadi juga akan mempengaruhi konsumsi swasta. Namun belanja menjelang pemilu wakil rakyat dan presiden pada tahun 2014 akan membawa sejumlah pengaruh pengimbang bagi pertumbuhan konsumsi menjelang akhir tahun 2013 dan memasuki tahun 2014 (Gambar 6). Ekspor bersih Setelah menjadi penghambat pertumbuhan selama sebagian besar tahun 2012, ekspor bersih diperkirakan akan telah menambah terhadap pertumbuhan yoy pada dua triwulan terakhir, dengan pertumbuhan berkontribusike ekspor yang melebihi impor (Gambar 7). Ekspor riil mencatat pertumbuhan yang positif, pertumbuhan tahun walaupun lemah, pada triwulan kedua (seperti terukur oleh neraca nasional), dengan 2013 dan 2014, setelah peningkatan sebesar 0,8 persen qoq dengan penyesuaian musiman dan 4,8 persen yoy. Impor mengurangi kembali pulih pada triwulan ini, meningkat 3,7 persen qoq dengan penyesuaian musiman pertumbuhan selama namun hanya mencatat peningkatan tipis sebesar 0,6 persen yoy pada triwulan kedua. Dalam tahun 2012 skenario dasar, ekspor bersih diperkirakan akan menambah terhadap pertumbuhan tahun 2013 dan 2014 dengan volume ekspor diperkirakan akan mencatat sedikit pemulihan, sejalan dengan menguatnya permintaan dari negara berpenghasilan tinggi dan volume impor diperkirakan akan tetap lemah sejalan dengan permintaan dalam negeri. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 5 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 6: Data historis menunjukkan bahwa pemilu Gambar 7: Volume ekspor semakin pulih, sementara impor nasional selalu mendorong peningkatan pertumbuhan masih tetap melemah konsumsi (pertumbuhan volume ekspor dan impor yoy, persen) (pertumbuhan konsumsi yoy, persen) 10 30 Pemilu Pemilu Impor 2004 2009 20 8 Non pangan 10 6 0 Total 4 Ekspor Pangan -10 2 -20 0 -30 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Pada sisi produksi, Pada sisi produksi, moderasi pertumbuhan yoy pada triwulan kedua bersifat luas, dengan sebagian besar dampak terbesar kepada keseluruhan ekonomi yang berasal dari sektor pertanian dan moderasi pertumbuhan industri. Kegiatan pertambangan dan penggalian tetaplah lemah, dengan kontraksi sebesar didorong oleh sektor 1,2 persen yoy, dan migas turun sebesar 4,7 persen yoy. Sektor-sektor industri lainnya industri, terutama umumnya mencatat kinerja yang kokoh, seperti manufaktur (naik 5,8 persen yoy) dan pertambangan dan konstruksi (naik 6,9 persen yoy). Sebagian besar sektor jasa terus mencatat kinerja yang baik, penggalian… dengan transportasi dan komunikasi meningkat 11,5 persen yoy dan perdagangan, hotel dan restoran naik sebesar 6,5 persen yoy, walaupun lebih rendah dibanding pertumbuhan sebesar 10 persen yang dicatat menjelang akhir tahun 2011. …dan dalam skenario Prospek ke depan diperkirakan pertumbuhan yang lebih lemah di sebagian besar sektor dasar, perlambatan karena pengetatan kondisi kredit dan harga komoditas global yang tetap lemah. Kinerja yang luas lintas sektor manufaktur yang terkait dengan non-komoditas tampaknya akan bercampur, dengan sub- diperkirakan terus sektor berorientasi ekspor yang didukung oleh peningkatan pertumbuhan dunia dan berlanjut … depresiasi Rupiah. Namun dengan sejumlah industri manufaktur Indonesia yang bergantung pada faktor produksi (input) dari impor, perlemahan kurs tukar akan meningkatkan sejumlah biaya input, sehingga akan menghambat sejumlah kegiatan. …seperti yang Indikator-indikator dengan frekuensi yang tinggi pada bulan Juli dan Agustus menunjukkan diperlihatkan oleh bahwa moderasi pertumbuhan akan terus berlanjut, walau masa Ramadan memperumit sejumlah indikator interpretasi dari data-data tersebut. Indikator pertumbuhan konsumsi sejalan dengan kegiatan ekonomi perlemahan pada triwulan ketiga, dengan turunnya kepercayaan konsumen secara signifikan, frekuensi tinggi dan penjualan sepeda motor, mobil dan ritel juga menunjukkan sejumlah perlemahan pada bulan Juli dan Agustus (Gambar 8). Pertumbuhan produksi industri tetap lemah, hanya sebesar 3,2 persen yoy pada bulan Juli. Penjualan semen, indikator utama investasi pergedungan, juga melemah. Impor barang modal bulanan, komponen investasi yang penting, tetap lemah selama bulan Agustus setelah penyesuaian musiman (Gambar 9). O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 6 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 8: Data frekuensi tinggi menunjukkan melemahnya Gambar 9: …sementara impor modal telah lemah permintaan konsumen… (perubahan, tingkat penyesuaian musiman disetahunkan, persen) (indeks penjualan ritel, pertumbuhan dalam rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan yoy, dan indeks kepercayaan konsumen BI, rata-rata tahun 2010=100) 25 Kepercayaan konsumen 120 120 30 BI (kanan) 100 Investasi riil (q/q, saar, diperhalus) 25 115 20 80 20 110 60 15 40 15 105 20 10 10 0 100 5 -20 5 0 Penjualan ritel (kiri) 95 -40 Impor barang modal (3m/3m, saar) -60 -5 0 90 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Pertumbuhan PDB Proyeksi Bank Dunia untuk Gambar 10: Pertumbuhan PDB riil diperkirakan akan diperkirakan sebesar pertumbuhan PDB adalah 5,6 melambat 5,6 persen untuk tahun persen untuk tahun 2013 dan (pertumbuhan PDB riil, persen) 2013 dan 5,3 persen 5,3 persen untuk 2014 8 tahun 2014 (Gambar 10). Penurunan yang Tahunan cukup besar untuk proyeksi tahun 2014, dari 6,2 persen 6 seperti disebut pada IEQ edisi bulan Juli, sebagian besar mencerminkan prospek yang 4 lebih lemah atas permintaan domestik dengan ekonomi qoq, penyesuaian musiman terus melakukan penyesuaian 2 terhadap sejumlah tekanan. Penyesuaian yang diperlukan terhadap permintaan dalam 0 negeri akan bergantung pada Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 pelaksanaan sejumlah faktor Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia dan kebijakan tanggapan yang berkaitan, seperti yang dibahas lebih jauh di bawah ini. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 7 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 2: Menurut skenario baseline, pertumbuhan PDB diproyeksikan 5,6 persen untuk 2013 dan 5,3 persen untuk 2014 (persentase perubahan, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Tahun berjalan ke triwulan Tahunan Desember Revisi Tahunan 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 1. Indikator ekonomi utama Jumlah pengeluaran konsumsi 4,8 5,0 5,1 3,9 5,6 4,8 0,1 -0,5 Pengeluaran konsumsi swasta 5,3 4,8 5,1 5,4 4,7 5,0 -0,1 -0,5 Konsumsi pemerintah 1,2 6,1 4,5 -3,3 10,1 4,1 1,7 -0,3 Pembentukan modal tetap bruto 9,8 5,3 4,9 7,3 4,9 4,9 0,9 -1,2 Ekspor barang dan jasa 2,0 5,6 5,7 0,5 6,1 6,7 -0,2 -0,4 Impor barang dan jasa 6,6 2,4 4,5 6,8 -0,1 4,9 1,4 -0,7 Produk domestik bruto 6,2 5,6 5,3 6,1 5,2 5,5 -0,2 -0,9 Pertanian 4,0 3,4 2,4 2,0 4,5 2,6 -0,8 -0,7 Industri 5,2 4,3 4,1 5,4 3,5 4,4 -0,2 -1,0 Jasa-jasa 7,7 7,3 7,0 7,6 6,7 7,0 -0,2 -1,0 2. Indikator eksternal Neraca pembayaran (miliar AS$) 0,2 -15,4 -4,0 n/a n/a n/a -10,6 -9,2 Saldo neraca berjalan (miliar AS$) -24,4 -29,2 -22,1 n/a n/a n/a -4,0 0,1 Neraca perdagangan (miliar AS$) -1,7 -7,9 -1,0 n/a n/a n/a -2,9 -0,4 Saldo neraca keuangan (miliar AS$) 25,1 15,1 18,1 n/a n/a n/a -5,4 -9,3 3. Pengukuran ekonomi lainnya Indeks harga konsumen 4,3 7,3 6,7 4,3 9,8 4,4 0,1 0,0 IHK keranjang kemiskinan 6,5 7,2 6,3 5,4 8,3 5,9 -0,2 -1,6 Deflator PDB 4,6 2,6 4,2 2,7 3,3 4,7 -1,7 -2,0 PDB nominal 11,0 8,4 9,7 9,0 8,6 10,4 -2,1 -3,1 4. Asumsi ekonomi Kurs tukar (Rp/dolar AS) 9419 10400 11400 9630 11400 11400 650,0 1700,0 Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (dolar AS/barel) 113 106 105 108 110 105 0,0 0,0 Pertumbuhan mitra dagang utama 3,4 3,4 3,9 3,1 4,0 4,0 0,0 -0,1 Catatan: Proyeksi aliran perdagangan berkaitan dengan neraca nasional. Kurs tukar adalah asumsi dari rata-rata terakhir. Revisi relatif dibanding proyeksi pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Juli 2013 Sumber: Kemenkeu; BPS; BI; CEIC; proyeksi Bank Dunia O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 8 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 3. Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia terus berlanjut walau terjadi perlambatan impor Defisit neraca transaksi Walau terdapat tanda-tanda perlambatan pertumbuhan pada triwulan kedua, defisit neraca berjalan Indonesia transaksi berjalan Indonesia melebar menjadi 9.8 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan kedua melebar ke 4,4 persen (Gambar 11), atau 4,4 persen terhadap PDB, dari 5,8 miliar dolar AS (2,6 persen dari PDB) terhadap PDB di di triwulan pertama. Ini merupakan nilai defisit triwulanan terbesar yang pernah tercatat. triwulan kedua 2013 Saldo neraca berjalan umumnya menunjukkan penurunan musiman pada triwulan kedua, akibat tekanan dengan permintaan impor dan jasa hutang perusahaan swasta, dan aliran keluar modal musiman dan repatriasi keuntungan pada sub-neraca penerimaan yang cenderung naik. Perlemahan pengaruh harga yang musiman tahun ini diperkuat dengan waktu jatuhnya bulan Ramadhan, yang membangkitkan mendominasi kembali impor non-migas. Selain itu, perlemahan yang terus dialami harga-harga komoditas pemulihan dalam ekspor utama Indonesia memangkas peningkatan volumenya (Gambar 12), yang akibatnya volume ekspor menekan penerimaan ekspor barang-barang non-migas menajdi 4,9 persen yoy berdasarkan rata-rata bergerak 3 bulanan (3mma) di bulan Agustus. Rata-rata surplus perdagangan komoditas 12 bulan kini menurun dari 5,5 miliar dolar AS pada bulan Juni 2011 menjadi 3,4 miliar dolar AS di bulan Juni 2013, seperti disebutkan oleh data perdagangan bulanan BPS. Gambar 11: Defisit neraca berjalan melebar ke 9.8 miliar Gambar 12: …dengan penurunan harga menghambat dolar AS pada triwulan dua, saat neraca barang defisit… penerimaan ekspor komoditas, walau volume meningkat (saldo neraca, miliar dolar AS) (pertumbuhan dalam rata-rata bergerak 3 bulanan yoy, persen) 90 Neraca transfer Neraca Neraca transaksi perdagangan 12 berjalan barang Ekspor komoditas (volume) 60 8 30 4 0 0 -4 -30 Ekspor komoditas (nilai) -8 Neraca Nerca penerimaan -12 perdagangan jasa -60 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Sumber: BI Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Permintaan impor naik Impor barang-barang di bulan Juli hanya turun sebesar 0,8 persen yoy secara 3mma karena mendekati Ramadhan, kenaikan permintaan sebelum Ramadhan, namun kembali turun pada bulan Agustus dengan namun dalam periode penurunan sebesar 1,7 persen yoy 3mma (Gambar 13). Keseluruhan impor didorong oleh yang lebih panjang, kenaikan tajam impor BBM, yang naik sebesar 20,2 persen 3mma pada bulan Agustus, dan telah melambat selama barang-barang konsumsi, yang naik sebesar 6,3 persen yoy 3mma pada periode yang sama. 2013 Namun impor barang setengah jadi non-bahan bakar (sekitar 52 persen dari jumlah impor), dan terutama barang modal (sekitar 18 persen dari jumlah impor) tetap lemah. Defisit perdagangan Neraca perdagangan migas bulanan Indonesia sudah mengalami defisit sejak bulan Agustus migas tetap menjadi 2012, dan terus menjadi penghambat besar bagi keseluruhan neraca perdagangan. Defisit tantangan utama perdagangan migas mencapai 2,4 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan kedua (mengecil dari 3,4 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan pertama), dan secara beruntun melebar dengan cukup tajam ke 1,9 miliar dolar AS hanya di bulan Juli (hal ini dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor musiman, karena di bulan Agustus deficit menyempit menjadi 0,9 miliar dolar AS). Produksi minyak mentah dalam negeri terus menyusut, menjadikan neraca minyak mentah memasuki zona defisit. Sementara, terbatasnya kapasitas penyulingan minyak di dalam negeri mendorong defisit perdagangan pengolahan minyak mencapai 5,4 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan kedua, walau turun dari 6,2 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan pertama, berdasarkan laporan BPS. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 9 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 13: Impor barang-barang konsumen dan BBM Gambar 14: Aliran FDI tampaknya akan terpengaruh oleh mendorong naiknya impor agregat sebelum Ramadhan melemahnya penerimaan komoditas (rata-rata bergerak pertumbuhan nilai impor 3 bulanan yoy, persen) (pertumbuhan rata-rata bergerak dalam 4 triwulan aliran masuk FDI yoy, persen, indeks tertimbang harga komoditas ekspor Indonesia) 40 500 80 Kenaikan FDI ke dalam Barang setengah jadi: BBM negeri (kiri) 60 20 400 40 20 0 300 0 Total Barang setengah -20 200 -20 jadi: non-BBM Indeks tertimbang Konsumsi Modal harga komoditas ekspor Indonesia (kanan) -40 -40 100 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Indonesia terus Aliran masuk neraca modal dan finansial meningkatkan menjadi 8,2 miliar dolar AS di bergantung pada aliran triwulan kedua dari defisit sebesar 0,3 miliar dolar AS di triwulan pertama. Akan teteapi, masuk modal surplus aliran masuk modal tidak cukup untuk mengimbangi aliran keluar dari neraca portofolio dan lainnya berjalan, sehingga cadangan devisa mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,5 miliar dolar AS selama untuk membiayai triwulan itu. Defisit neraca dasar (basic balance) Indonesia, yang merupakan penjumlahan dari defisit neraca neraca transaksi berjalan dan aliran masuk penanaman modal langsung, meningkat menjadi berjalan… 6,5 miliar di triwulan kedua, dari 1,9 miliar dolar AS di triwulan akhir tahun 2012. Hal ini menambah ketergantungan pembiayaan pada inestasi portofolio (yang mencapai 2,5 miliar dolar AS di triwulan kedua) dan pada aliran masuk modal investasi lainnya (sebesar 2,3 miliar dolar AS). Aliran masuk investasi portofolio termasuk 3,0 miliar dolar AS dari penerbitan obligasi negara global, yang mengimbangi aliran keluar modal bersih yang signifikan dari obligasi dan saham dalam negeri Indonesia. Surplus dari investasi lainnya di triwulan kedua merupakan perubahan dari defisit sebesar 7 miliar dolar AS di triwulan pertama, yang berasal dari kuatnya aliran masuk modal untuk tabungan dan valas (sebesar 4,6 miliar dolar AS), yang sebagian mencerminkan kuatnya permintaan musiman valuta asing dari para nasabah bank untuk memenuhi hutang luar negeri dan repatriasi keuntungan, yang mendorong bank-bank untuk melakukan repatriasi tabungan di dalam negeri. …sementara aliran Aliran masuk penanaman modal asing langsung sebesar (PMA) sebesar 3,3 miliar dolar AS masuk PMA secara pada triwulan kedua, menurun dari 3,9 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan pertama, karena lebih umum tetap stabil kuatnya aliran investasi langsung yang mengalir keluar negeri. Aliran masuk penanaman modal langsung ke dalam negeri, seperti diukur oleh neraca pembayaran, tetap bertahan stabil pada 4,2 miliar dolar AS (naik tipis dari 4,1 miliar di triwulan pertama), namun turun dari nilai rata-ratanya yang sedikit di bawah 5 miliar dolar AS yang tercatat pada tahun 2011 dan 2012, masa ketika aliran masuk modal naik dengan cepat. Walau terjadi peningkatan diversifikasi sektoral dari aliran masuk PMA di triwulan dua, pola aliran masuk PMA secara keseluruhan berhubungan erat dengan pola pergerakan harga-harga komoditas dunia, yang tampaknya mencerminkan penyaluran penerimaan yang terkait dengan penerimaan kepada investasi pada sektor-sektor ekonomi lainnya di Indonesia (Gambar 14). Sebagai akibatnya, harga-harga komoditas dunia bersama-sama dengan ketidakpastian kebijakan dan politik menjelang pemilu tahun 2014, membawa risiko terhadap prospek aliran masuk PMA. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 10 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Perkembangan Dengan berlanjutnya perlambatan Gambar 15: Permintaan impor diperkirakan akan terus ekonomi dan pertumbuhan sampai dengan melambat sejalan dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan penyesuaian kebijakan 2014, diharapkan terjadi permintaan dalam negeri memasuki tahun 2014 akhir-akhir ini perlambatan impor yang mungkin (pertumbuhan impor barang setengah jadi dan permintaan dalam negeri yoy, persen) mendukung cukup tipis yang dapat penurunan tipis defisit mendukung memperkecilnya 120 9 Permintaan dalam negeri neraca transaksi defisit neraca transaksi berjalan. (kanan) 90 berjalan… Hal ini terutama pada impor 7 modal dan impor barang setengah 60 jadi, yang selama beberapa waktu ini telah mengalami penurunan 30 5 sejalan dengan melambatnya investasi yang telah terlihat sejak 0 pertengahan tahun 2012 (Gambar 3 15). Seperti disoroti di atas, impor -30 BBM terus membebani neraca Impor barang setengah jadi (kiri) perdagangan. Peningkatan harga -60 1 BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 diharapkan mampu memberikan Catatan: Impor barang setengah jadi dalam Rupiah sejumlah keringanan dengan Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia melemahkan permintaan impor BBM, sehingga menurunkan defisit neraca berjalan pada kisaran 0,1 hingga 0,2 poin persentase terhadap PDB (berdasar perkiraan pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Juli 2013). Tajamnya depresiasi nominal Rupiah yang belakangan terjadi – dengan penurunan yang telah mencapai 20 persen sejauh ini pada 2013 – juga akan memberikan sejumlah dukungan pada neraca perdagangan dalam rangka meningkatkan daya saing eksternal Indonesia (walau secara persyaratan perdagangan penurunan itu lebih kecil, seperti diperlihatkan pada Bagian 4 di bawah). Akhirnya, penerimaan ekspor diproyeksikan akan meningkat berkat dukungan pertumbuhan mitra perdagangan utama, bersama-sama dengan stabilisasi harga-harga komoditas ekspor memasuki tahun 2014. …namun kebutuhan Kebutuhan pendanaan bruto Indonesia yang berasal dari luar negeri cukup besar, sementara pendanaan bruto yang timbul dari pemenuhan dan pembayaran kembali hutang luar negeri berukuran lebih secara umum tetap besar dari yang berasal dari defisit neraca transaksi berjalan. Pembayaran kembali hutang luar besar, dan kondisi negeri pada triwulan kedua mencapai 43,1 miliar dolar AS, sementara, seperti dibahas di atas, pendanaan luar negeri jumlah defisit neraca transaksi berjalan triwulanan sebesar 9,8 miliar dolar AS (Gambar 16). telah mengetat Kondisi pendanaan luar negeri yang lebih ketat dan depresiasi Rupiah menciptakan kondisi yang lebih menantang dan lebih mahal bagi pembiayaan kembali hutang luar negeri yang ada, di mana lebih dari setengahnya (atau 15 persen dari PDB) merupakan hutang luar negeri sektor swasta. Hal ini terutama dialami oleh perusahaan-perusahaan yang tidak memiliki akses terhadap lindung ulang (hedging) valuta alami (melalui penerimaan dalam dolar AS) dan yang memiliki keterpaparan yang besar terhadap perlemahan harga-harga komoditas global. Cadangan devisa resmi masih dalam kondisi lebih dari mencukupi kebutuhan pembiayaan luar negeri jangka pendek Indonesia, walau rasio hutang luar negeri jangka pendek terhadap cadangan devisa telah meningkat menjadi sekitar 50 persen dari 40 persen pada akhir tahun 2011. Namun yang lebih penting adalah bahwa risiko likuiditas luar negeri telah meningkat, dengan rasio layanan hutang meningkat hingga 80 persen pada bulan Juni 2013, dari sekitar 30 persen pada pertengahan tahun 2011. Bank Indonesia memproyeksikan bahwa pembayaran kembali hutang luar negeri di luar pembiayaan perdagangan, pinjaman bergulir dan valas dan simpanan akan mencapai jumlah 32,6 miliar dolar AS selama bulan Agustus hingga Desember 2013, yang mana 28,8 miliar dolar AS merupakan hutang swasta, dan pembayaran kembali bruto sebesar 33,4 miliar dolar AS yang diperkirakan untuk periode Januari-Juli 2014.1 1Perhitungan Bank Indonesia berdasarkan hutang bruto luar negeri pada Juli 2013, tidak termasuk pembiayaan perdagangan, pinjaman bergulir, valuta dan tabungan. Lihat Statistik Hutang Luar Negeri Indonesia, Tabel 1.9. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 11 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Defisit neraca transaksi Secara keseluruhan, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan sebesar 29 berjalan diproyeksikan miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2013, atau 3,4 persen dari PDB, lebih besar dari defisit 2,8 persen mencapai 3,4 persen dari PDB pada tahun 2012. Pada tahun 2014, defisit neraca transaksi berjalan diperkirakan pada 2013 dan 2,6 akan menyempit menjadi 2,6 persen dari PDB, karena pelemahan kegiatan ekonomi yang persen pada 2014… diantisipasi menuju tahun 2014 akan memperkecil permintaan impor; sementara depresiasi Rupiah yang belakangan terjadi dan peningkatan pertumbuhan para mitra perdagangan utama Indonesia akan memberikan sejumlah dukungan kepada ekspor. …dengan asumsi Seperti biasanya, proyeksi saldo neraca transaksi berjalan sangatlah peka terhadap pola kesulitan pembiayaan permintaan dalam negeri dan harga komoditas non-minyak (bagi ekspor) dan biaya bahan eksternal yang bakar internasional (bagi impor). Pada saat ini, di tengah peningkatan keprihatinan akan signifikan dapat persyaratan pembiayaan eksternal para negara-negara berkembangutama, termasuk dihindari Indonesia, suatu tambahan asumsi yang mendasari proyek dasar (baseline) di atas adalah bahwa proses penyesuaian untuk memperketat kondisi pembiayaan eksternal tetaplah teratur. Asumsi ini sangat bergantung pada perkembangan kebijakan dalam dan luar negeri dan kaitannya dengan kepercayaan investor. Sejumlah perubahan kebijakan untuk mendukung daya saing perdagangan dan investasi luar negeri dapat ditetapkan untuk jangka pendek (lihat Bagian B.1 dan B.2). Namun peningkatan daya saing lainnya tampaknya akan mengambil waktu yang lebih panjang, termasuk penanganan biaya dan kemacetan yang disebabkan oleh buruknya infrastruktur Indonesia (lihat Bagian C.1). Dengan demikian, secara jangka pendek, fokus yang lebih akan diberikan kepada penyesuaian permintaan impor, baik melalui pertukaran belanja (karena depresiasi Rupiah meningkatkan harga-harga impor) dan tekanan (dengan pengetatan kondisi kredit dan moneter dan impor yang lebih mahal menghambat belanja diskresioner untuk barang-barang yang hanya memiliki sedikit barang pengganti atau barang pengganti yang tidak sempurna pada jangka pendek). Moderasi permintaan domestik dapat berperan dalam menurunkan tekanan neraca pembayaran, sehingga komunikasi dan koordinasi kebijakan menjadi hal yang sangat penting, terutama dalam kaitannya dengan peningkatan intensitas siklus politis, seperti dibahas lebih lanjut pada Bagian 7. Gambar 16: Kebutuhan pendanaan eksternal bruto tetap Tabel 3: …dengan aliran masuk modal investasi sebagai besar dan risiko likuiditas telah meningkat… kunci prospek keseluruhan neraca pembayaran, dimana (miliar dolar AS, persen) defisit neraca berjalan akan menyusut secara perlahan (miliar dolar AS) miliar dolar AS Persen 2011 2012 2013p 2014p 60 100 Neraca Rasio pembayaran pembayaran hutang (kanan) keseluruhan 11,9 0,2 -15,4 -4,0 Neraca berjalan 1,7 -24,4 -29,2 -22,1 40 75 Pembayaran kembali Perdagangan 24,2 -1,7 -7,9 -1,0 hutang luar negeri Penerimaan -26,7 -26,7 -25,6 -25,4 (kiri) Transfer 4,2 4,0 4,3 4,3 20 50 Neraca modal & keuangan 13,6 25,1 15,1 18,1 Inv. langsung 11,5 14,0 14,1 12,3 0 25 Inv. portofolio 3,8 9,2 4,0 6,5 Defisit neraca Rasio hutang LN jangka pendek terhadap cadangan Inv. lainnya -1,8 1,9 -3,0 -0,7 berjalan (kiri) devisa (kanan) Cadangan devisa 110,1 112,8 91,8 87,8 -20 0 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Catatan: Pembayaran seluruh hutang luar negeri, kecuali Sumber: Proyeksi staf Bank Dunia sekuritas dalam negeri, valuta dan tabungan pihak asing, dan tanggung jawab lain ke pihak asing Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 12 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 4. Rupiah telah melemah dan kondisi pembiayaan mengetat Pasar keuangan Seperti telah disinggung sebelumnya, seperti pada banyak negara-negara berkembang, pasar Indonesia mengalami keuangan Indonesia sekali lagi mengalami triwulan yang bergejolak, bereaksi dengan kuat gejolak di triwulan terhadap selera risiko global, dan juga perkembangan ekonomi dan kebijakan dalam negeri. ketiga Di tengah penjualan besar-besaran aset-aset pasar berkembang, saham Indonesia turun sebesar 8,6 persen hanya pada tanggal 19-20 Agustus saja. Setelah gejolak yang menyusul (dengan peningkatan yang mengikuti penundaan “pemotongan stimulus AS” dan dibantu dengan sejumlah besar pembelian kembali saham-saham perusahaan, dan diikuti oleh perlemahan baru pada akhir bulan September), indeks menutup triwulan itu dengan penurunan sebesar 10,4 persen, yang belum berubah hingga saat ini (mencerminkan kuatnya peningkatan yang dicatat oleh indeks hingga bulan Mei). Investor asing menjadi penjual bersih akan jumlah yang cukup besar yaitu Rp 8,5 triliun (sekitar 800 juta dolar AS) dalam saham selama triwulan tersebut. Sementara itu imbal hasil (yield) obligasi negara lima tahunan dalam mata uang Rupiah meningkat sebesar 180 basis poin dari permulaan triwulan hingga mencapai 8,24 persen pada tanggal 11 September, sebelum turun 40 basis poin pada akhir triwulan itu menjadi 7,85 persen. Melihat pada gejolak harga-harga aset keuangan, tren yang paling jelas pada sektor keuangan adalah depresiasi Rupiah dan pengetatan kondisi pembiayaan dalam dan luar negeri. Gambar 17: Rupiah mencatat depresiasi yang signifikan Gambar 18: …diikuti masalah likuiditas dolar AS, seperti secara nominal tetapi tidak secara riil sejak 2011… ditunjukkan selisih spread antara dalam dan luar negeri (kurs tukar efektif nominal, kurs tukar efektif riil, dan kurs tukar bilateral (Rupiah per dolar AS; spread Rupiah per us3; persen) dolar AS, indeks, rata-rata tahun 2010=100) 12,000 1,500 115 110 Dolar AS/Rupiah 105 REER 11,000 Tingkat NDF satu bulan (kiri) 1,000 NEER 100 Tingkat spot (kiri) 95 10,000 500 90 85 9,000 0 80 Spread harian (NDF pada 75 spot) (kanan) 70 8,000 -500 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Catatan: Angka hingga akhir Agustus 2013 Catatan: Angka tingkat spot Rupiah dari Bloomberg ke 30 Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia berdasar data dari IMF (IFS) September 2013 dan JP Morgan Sumber: Bloomberg; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Rupiah terus Mengikuti pergerakan yang tiba-tiba pada pertengahan hingga akhir bulan Agustus, Rupiah terdepresiasi dan terus mengalami depresiasi pada bulan September, turun menjadi Rp 11.593 per dolar AS terjadi pengetatan pada akhir triwulan ketiga, dan kini telah terdepresiasi sebesar 20 persen dibanding akhir likuiditas dolar di tahun 2012, ke tingkatan paling rendahnya sejak awal tahun 2009. Namun walau dengan dalam negeri depresiasi nominal Rupiah yang cukup besar antara bulan Mei dan Agustus, nilai tukar efektif riil (rata-rata tertimbang perdagangan) Indonesia per bulan Agustus hanya turun sebesar 4 persen dari rata-ratanya pada tahun 2010 (Gambar 17), yang mencerminkan penurunan nominal terhadap dolar AS dari valuta-valuta sejumlah mitra perdagangan utama Indonesia dan peningkatan inflasi dalam negeri. Penyesuaian nominal itu telah membentuk tantangan bagi pasar valuta, dan bagi para perusahaan yang mengelola kewajiban eksternal. Likuiditas dolar mengetat secara signifikan sejak awal bulan Juli, dan sekali lagi pada pertengahan hingga akhir bulan Agustus (Gambar 18). Bank Indonesia telah mengelola laju penyesuaian dalam Rupiah, dengan cadangan devisa menyusut menjadi 93 miliar dolar AS pada akhir bulan Agustus 2013, setara dengan impor dan kebutuhan pembayaran hutang pemerintah selama lima bulan. Nilai itu juga lebih rendah dari cadangan devisa yang tercatat pada akhir O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 13 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia tahun 2012 sebesar 112,8 miliar dolar AS. Bank Indonesia telah mengambil sejumlah langkah-langkah untuk mendukung peningkatan likuiditas pada pasar valuta asing dalam negeri, termasuk melonggarkan aturan aturan pembelian dolar AS bagi para eksportir, memperpanjang jatuh tempo fasilitas penyimpanan dalam dolar AS hingga 12 bulan, dan melakukan lelang pertukaran (swap) dolar AS untuk menurunkan permintaan spot dolar AS dengan memfasilitasi lindung nilai komersial terhadap risiko-risiko valuta. Kebijakan moneter Sejak bulan Juni posisi kebijakan moneter telah bergeser secara signifikan menuju telah mengalami pengetatan, menunjukkan fokus terhadap fasilitasi penyesuaian neraca eksternal dan pengetatan secara pembatasan tekanan inflasi. Menyiasati peningkatan dalam harga BBM bersubsidi, dan signifikan, melalui dengan peningkatan tekanan terhadap Rupiah sejak bulan Mei, BI mengejutkan pasar dengan peningkatan suku meningkatkan suku bunga Fasilitas Simpanan Bank Indonesia (FASBI) sebesar 25 basis poin bunga… pada tanggal 11 Juni, yang diikuti dengan peningkatan BI Rate sebesar 25 basis poin pada rapat kebijakannya pada bulan Juni yang sama. Peningkatan ini diikuti dengan kenaikan lanjutan tingkat bunga sebesar 50 basis poin pada bulan Juli. Tingkatan itu tidak diubah pada Rapat Gubernur BI sampai dengan bulan Agustus, walau sejumlah aturan makro-prudensial yang baru diumumkan. Setelah laporan statistik neraca pembayaran yang melemah untuk triwulan kedua dan bertambahnya tekanan pada Rupiah, suku bunga FASBI dan BI Rate kembali ditingkatkan sebesar 50 basis poin pada saat rapat kebijakan luar biasa yang diadakan pada tanggal 29 Agustus (selain itu, koridor batas atas suku bunga operasi moneter, fasilitas pinjaman BI, juga ditingkatkan sebesar 25 basis poin). Hal ini diikuti dengan peningkatan kembali sebesar 25 basis poin untuk FASBI, BI Rate dan fasilitas pinjama pada rapat reguler tanggal 12 September. Dengan demikian, BI telah meningkatkan suku bunga FASBI dan BI Rate sebesar 150 basis poin sejak bulan Juni (masing-masing menjadi 5,5 dan 7,25 persen) dan suku bunga pinjaman utamanya sebesar 50 basis poin (ke 7,25 persen). …dan langkah- Sejumlah langkah-langkah makro-prudensial yang mengarahpada pengetatan juga telah langkah makro- diambil, dengan batas atas sasaran rasio pinjaman terhadap tabungan (loan-to-deposit) telah prudensial diturunkan dari 100 ke 92 persen dan juga rasio uang muka (loan-to-valuation) yang lebih ketat untuk kredit perumahan, sementara rasio giro wajib minimum sekunder akan ditingkatkan menjadi 4 persen (dari 2,5 persen) per bulan Desember. BI juga telah mengambil sejumlah langkah-langkah fasilitasi manajemen likuiditas: memperkenankan obligasi pemerintah dan Sertifikat BI untuk dihitung sebagai syarat giro wajib sekunder, dan memperkenalkan masa tenor sekuritas simpanan BI yang lebih singkat. Pertumbuhan kredit Selain peningkatan biaya peminjaman yang belakangan terjadi, terdapat tanda-tanda bank melambat, perlambatan pada siklus kredit, sejalan dengan perlemahan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sementara indikator peraturan kebijakan makro-prudensial BI. Pertumbuhan kredit riil tahunan melambat ke 13 kesehatan perbankan persen yoy ke bulan Juli, yang merupakan laju pertumbuhan terlemah sejak bulan Mei 2010 secara agregat tetap yang sebagian mencerminkan tingginya inflasi sementara yang disebabkan oleh peningkatan kokoh harga BBM pada bulan Juni. Secara nominal, pertumbuhan kredit secara agregat stabil secara umum pada 22 persen yoy sampai dengan Juli, naik tipis dari 21 persen di bulan Juni, dengan pertumbuhan pinjaman investasi stabil di 34 persen pada bulan Juli, naik dari 23 persen pada bulan Mei. Pertumbuhan kredit modal kerja turun menjadi 19 persen yoy pada bulan Juli, dari sekitar 24 persen yoy di awal tahun 2013, dan pertumbuhan kredit konsumsi relatif stabil pada 20 persen yoy. Indikator agregat sektor perbankan tetap stabil, sementara kredit macet tetap berada di bawah 2 persen, sementara tingkat keuntungan bank-bank Indonesia masih cukup tinggi. Namun demikian, diluar catatan-catatan kinerja yang terjadi sekarang, sektor perbankan diharapkan masih mampu menghadapi tekanan margin dan kualitas kredit, ditengah tantangan akan semakin melambatnya pertumbuhan atau bertambahanya gejolak pasar finansial pada bulan-bulan yang akan datang. Persetujuan kredit baru Pertumbuhan kredit diperkirakan akan semakin menurun, seperti ditunjukan dengan mengisyaratkan titik pelemahan pertumbuhan persetujuan pinjaman baru, yang cenderung memimpin balik siklus kredit pertumbuhan pinjaman (Gambar 19). Pertumbuhan pasokan dana bagi pinjaman mencatat sebagai respon pelemahan sejalan dengan penurunan pertumbuhan tabungan. Sementara itu suku bunga terhadap pengetatan tabungan telah meningkat sejak bulan Juni, dan juga suku bunga pinjaman umum dalam O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 14 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia kebijakan moneter rupiah bagi pinjaman modal kerja dan investasi, sementara suku bunga pinjaman konsumsi yang belakangan tetap melanjutkan penurunannya selama beberapa tahun terakhir. Naiknya bunga dan terjadi… melambatnya pertumbuhan tabungan tampaknya akan membebani kegiatan pinjaman pada bank-bank yang berukuran lebih kecil, sementara bank-bank besar tampaknya akan lebih tidak terpengaruh, terutama bank-bank yang memiliki akses yang lebih besar kepada rekening giro dan tabungan. Sebagai bagian dari aturan makro-prudensial yang disinggung di atas, BI menurunkan batas atas dari rasio sasaran rasio kredit terhadap nilai agunan (loan-to-deposit) bank dari 100 ke 92 persen, dan meningkatkan persyaratan giro wajib minimum untuk simpanan Rupiah ke 4 persen, dari 2,5 persen.2 Pertumbuhan tabungan secara agregat melambat ke 14 persen ke bulan Juli, sejalan dengan perlemahan lanjutan dalam pertumbuhan PDB nominal menjadi 7,8 persen pada tahun berjalan ke bulan Juni, yang menyebabkan peningkatan keseluruhan rasio loan-to-deposit bank ke 88,7 persen pada bulan Juli, naik dari 83,6 persen pada akhir tahun 2012 (Gambar 20). Gambar 19: Rendahnya persetujuan kredit baru Gambar 20: …sementara perlambatan pertumbuhan menunjukkan perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit ke depan… tabungan juga membebani kegiatan pinjaman (rata-rata bergerak pertumbuhan persetujuan kredit baru 3 bulan yoy, (pertumbuhan simpan pinjam bank yoy; rasio loan-to-deposit sektor pertumbuhan kredit yoy; persen) perbankan; persen, rasio) 300 50 50 Batas atas baru LDR BI (92 persen, kanan) 100 Persetujuan pinjaman baru (kiri) 40 90 200 40 Rasio loan Pertumbuhan to deposit (kanan) 30 pinjaman 80 100 30 (kiri) 20 70 0 20 10 60 -100 10 0 50 Jumlah kredit tersalur (kanan) Pertumbuhan simpanan (kiri) -200 0 -10 40 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-04 Jul-07 Jul-10 Jul-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia. Sumber: CEIC dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia. …yang tampaknya Pengetatan ketersediaan kredit dan peningkatan biaya pendanaan dalam negeri dapat akan membebani diperkirakan akan membebani kegiatan ekonomi dalam negeri pada kemudian hari, terutama pertumbuhan… kepada investasi. pada waktu yang bersamaan, proyeksi moderasi pertumbuhan mungkin akan menurunkan permintaan kredit, dengan Bank Indonesia menurunkan sasaran tahun 2013 untuk pertumbuhan pinjaman menjadi 18 persen. Keterkaitan historis menunjukkan bahwa penurunan pertumbuhan kredit bank secara nominal sebesar 4 hingga 5 poin persentase akan menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi riil sebesar 1 poin persentase. Secara keseluruhan, pertumbuhan kredit nominal diperkirakan akan turun ke sekitar 15 persen yoy pada triwulan yang akan datang, dari 22 persen pada bulan Juli. 2 Bank-bankdengan rasio loan-to-deposit yang melampaui batas atas, dan rasio kecukupan modal di bawah 14 persen, harus menempatkan tambahan simpnanan ke Bank Indonesia. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 15 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …terutama investasi, Selain kredit perbankan, akses Gambar 21: Perusahaan Indonesia menghadapi dengan pengetatan ke bentuk-bentuk pendanaan peningkatan biaya pendanaan luar negeri yang cukup berarti lain juga telah mengetat. (imbal hasil ke jatuh tempo, persen) terhadap kondisi Obligasi korporasi muncul Bernanke membawa prospek pembiayaan bagi sebagai sumber pendanaan 10 penurunan QE Fed dolar AS (22 Mei) perusahaan- alternatif selain pinjaman bank, perusahaan Indonesia walau jumlahnya hanya 6 persen dari jumlah aset-aset keuangan CEMBI - Indonesia Indonesia pada akhir tahun 8 2011, bidang yang sebagian besar masih didominasi oleh aset-aset perbankan (75 persen). Pertumbuhan penerbitan 6 CEMBI - obligasi perusahaan dalam semua negeri telah melambat menjadi 5 persen qoq rata-rata bergerak 4 CEMBI - Asia triwulanan ke bulan September 4 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 dari 50 persen ke bulan Maret.3 Imbal hasil (yield) pasar Catatan: Data hingga 30 September 2013 sekunder untuk obligasi Sumber: JP Morgan perusahaan Indonesia dalam dolar AS juga menunjuk kepada biaya pendanaan korporat luar negeri dalam dolar AS, dengan imbal hasil acuan yang meningkat sekitar 170 basis poin sejak awal bulan Mei (Gambar 21).4 Pertumbuhan harga Laju kenaikan harga properti jenis rumah tinggal secara nasional di Indonesia sedikit properti jenis melemah pada triwulan kedua, menjadi 10,7 persen yoy pada bulan Juni, turun dari laju yang perumahan mulai pesat sebesar 11,2 persen yoy pada bulan Maret. Rumah-rumah berukuran lebih kecil (dengan stabil pada triwulan luas tanah kurang dari 36 meter persegi) terus mencatat pertumbuhan harga yang paling kuat, kedua namun masih meningkat sebesar 16 persen yoy pada bulan Juni, dan tetap dibebaskan dari aturan rasio tetap tinggi pada kredit terhadap nilai agunan BI (loan-to-value) yang lebih ketat untuk kredit perumahan bagi beberapa segmen pasar pembeli rumah baru. Properti jenis bangunan komersial juga menunjukkan peningkatan harga yang tetap menguat, dengan laju pertumbuhan harga jual apartemen rumah tinggal dan lahan industri, dan sewa ruang perkantoran, seluruhnya berada di atas 25 persen yoy bulan Juni 2013 pada wilayah Jabodetabek. Seperti disinggung pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013, pertumbuhan harga properti yang sedemikian kuat membutuhkan pemantauan berkelanjutan. Namun kegiatan sektor properti dan pertumbuhan harganya dapat terkena dampak kondisi pembiayaan yang lebih ketat, dengan kredit bank untuk perumahan melambat menjadi 17,3 persen yoy di bulan Juli, pengumuman aturan makro-prudensial lanjutan oleh BI untuk membatasi risiko kredit pada sektor properti5, dan juga melambatnya pertumbuhan PDB nominal. 3 Dihitung sebagai rata-rata bergerak 4 triwulanan (4qma) berdasar data penerbitan triwulan 3 hingga 29 September. 4 Dari 15 miliar dolar AS nilai obligasi korporasi dalam dolar AS yang diterbitkan pada akhir 2012, sektor pertambangan memiliki porsi sebesar 71 persen, diikuti oleh infrastruktur (14 persen), dan keuangan (7 persen). 5 Bank Indonesia mengumumkan rencana pengetatan batas rasio kredit terhadap nilai agunan (loan-to- value) bagi kredit rumah sekunder dan selanjutnya (termasuk bagi rumah yang berukuran lebih kecil) dan memperluas cakupan aturan itu ke ruko (rumah toko), rukan (rumah kantor) dan konsumsi dengan dukungan properti, mulai tanggal 30 September 2013. Selanjutnya, dana pinjaman hanya akan dicairkan setelah properti itu dibangun. Persyaratan rasio loan-to-valuation bagi pembeli rumah baru tetap dipertahankan antara 70 dan 80 persen, bergantung pada jenis dan ukuran propertinya. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 16 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 5. Inflasi telah meningkat karena kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi Inflasi IHK yoy Pergerakan inflasi selama kuartal ketiga didominasi oleh pengaruh reformasi subsidi BBM meningkat ke 8 persen (Bahan Bakar Minyak) dan dampak musiman bulan Ramadhan. Keputusan Pemerintah pada awal kuartal menaikkan harga solar bersubsidi sebesar Rp 1.000 per liter dan harga bensin sebesar Rp ketiga karena kenaikan 2.000 per liter memicu lonjakan tajam inflasi IHK (headline), mendorong inflasi yoy naik harga BBM dan bahan untuk empat kuartal berikutnya. Namun inflasi bulan-ke-bulan diperkirakan akan kembali pangan stabil dalam jangka pendek, seperti pada reformasi harga BBM yang lalu, dengan peningkatan suku bunga Bank Indonesia (yang baru diumumkan) dan pengetatan kondisi kredit yang sedang berlangsung akan membantu mengurangi dampak putaran kedua serta harapan inflasi (expected inflation). Gabungan dari pengaruh pembatasan perdagangan yang diluncurkan pada bulan Oktober 2012 dan peningkatan permintaan selama masa Lebaran mendorong peningkatan inflasi harga bahan pangan, terutama pada harga cabai, bawang merah dan bawang putih. Sebagian dampak pembatasan perdagangan tersebut telah berkurang, dan harga bahan pangan tampaknya mulai mengikuti tren menurun. Kenaikan harga BBM Kenaikan harga BBM diperkirakan menyumbang lebih dari setengah inflasi IHK bulan-ke- bersubsidi bulan pada bulan Juli yang mencapai 3,3 persen (Gambar 22). Sebagai akibatnya inflasi IHK diperkirakan meningkat hingga 8,6 persen yoy pada bulan Juli, dari 5,9 persen pada bulan Juni, dan kembali berkontribusi hampir merayap naik ke 8,8 persen pada bulan Agustus, sebelum menurun tipis ke 8,4 persen pada setengah dari kenaikan bulan September (Gambar 23). Harga-harga barang konsumsi inti telah sedikit meningkat inflasi bulan-ke-bulan menjadi 4,5 persen yoy pada bulan Agustus, dan 4,7 persen pada bulan September. Pada saat pada bulan Juli… kenaikan harga BBM yang lalu pada bulan Oktober 2005 dan Juni 2008, peningkatan harga konsumsi inti kembali dengan cepat ke tingkat harga sebelumnya (Gambar 24). Namun perubahan inflasi inti harus dipantau dengan jangka waktu yang lebih panjang, karena harga BBM yang lebih tinggi dapat membawa pengaruh yang tertunda terhadap peningkatan harga faktor produksi (input). Kenyataan bahwa harga BBM bersubsidi masih berada jauh di bawah harga internasional juga berarti bahwa harga-harga yang tinggi saat ini sebetulnya sengaja ditekan lewat pengaturan subsidi. Gambar 22: Inflasi naik tajam pada awal kuartal 3 karena Gambar 23: …menyebabkan peningkatan kecil pada inflasi dorongan harga BBM dan bahan pangan… inti (inflasi, bulan-ke-bulan, persen) (inflasi, persen) Kenaikan 3.5 24 3.5 Other harga BBM bersubsidi 3.0 Inflasi IHK yoy (kanan) 20 3.0 Inflasi inti yoy Transportation, Communication 2.5 (kanan) 16 2.5 and Finance Inflasi pangan yoy (kanan) Food 2.0 12 2.0 CPI 1.5 8 1.5 1.0 4 1.0 0.5 0 0.5 0.0 -4 0.0 -0.5 Inflasi IHK bulan-ke-bulan (kiri) -8 -0.5 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 17 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …sementara harga Bersamaan dengan kenaikan harga BBM, harga-harga sejumlah bahan pangan juga bahan pangan meningkat pada kuartal kedua tahun 2013, mengikuti pengumuman UU Pangan, yang menyumbang ditetapkan pada bulan Oktober 2012 (Gambar 25). Sejumlah pembatasan perdagangan yang tambahan sepertiga berkaitan dengan UU Pangan telah diganti, termasuk kuota daging sapi yang diganti dengan terhadap inflasi tarif yang menyesuaikan dengan harga dalam negeri, untuk mendorong turunnya harga. Namun bulan Ramadhan pada Juli-Agustus juga membawa pengaruh peningkatan harga yang biasa terjadi. Kenaikan harga bahan pangan – beberapa bahkan meningkat hingga dua sampai lima kali lipat dari harganya pada bulan Oktober 2012 – memberikan kontribusi sebesar 1,1 poin persentase kepada inflasi bulan-ke-bulan (mom) pada bulan Juli. Harga bahan-bahan pangan itu kini tampaknya berada pada jalur yang menurun, yang menunjukkan keringanan dari tekanan inflasi yang berasal dari sumber ini. Gambar 24: Inflasi inti kembali normal dengan cepat pasca Gambar 25: Harga sejumlah bahan pangan naik karena naiknya harga BBM bersubsidi pada tahun 2005 dan 2008 pembatasan perdagangan dan bulan Ramadhan… (harga, indeks dimana 100= IHK inti mom(month-on-month) pada bulan - (harga, indeks, 1 = Oktober 2013) 1, bulan dari kenaikan harga) 350 6 Ramadhan 300 Jul-13 5 Bawang merah 250 4 200 Jun-08 150 3 Bawang putih 100 2 Cabai 50 Okt-05 0 1 Cabai rawit -50 0 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Tekanan lebih lanjut Depresiasi Rupiah yang akhir-akhir ini terjadi membawa risiko inflasi jangka pendek, melalui terhadap inflasi dapat peningkatan biaya impor. Depresiasi kuartal kedua tampaknya akan menyumbang sampai berasal dari dampak sebesar 0,5 poin persentase kepada IHK. Secara prinsip, pengaruh depresiasi valuta terhadap lanjutan kenaikan inflasi tampaknya bersifat non-linier, meningkat dalam jangka pendek dengan pengaruh harga BBM, depresiasi peningkatan harga impor masuk ke keranjang IHK, dan kemudian menurun ketika kejutan Rupiah yang baru harga turun relatif terhadap dasarnya. Sejalan dengan hal ini, tekanan inflasi lanjutan dapat terjadi dan diperkirakan dari depresiasi yang baru terjadi, dan pergerakan kurs tukar merupakan salah peningkatan upah satu risiko utama terhadap prospek inflasi dasar (baseline). Risiko tambahan sisi penawaran minimum tahun terhadap inflasi juga meningkat, terutama dari potensi peningkatan upah minimum tahun 2014… 2014 (mengikuti kenaikan dalam jumlah besar pada tahun 2013), dan kemungkinan dampak lanjutan kedua dan ketiga dari penurunan subsidi BBM. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 18 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …namun demikian Tanpa mengesampingkan risiko- Gambar 26: Inflasi yoy diproyeksikan mencapai proyeksi baseline risiko di atas, prospek dasar puncaknya pada kuartal 4 menunjukkan (baseline) adalah bahwa inflasi (inflasi, persen) penurunan inflasi akan tetap terjaga, sejalan dengan 12 perlemahan umum pada Proyeksi pertumbuhan permintaan secara 10 agregat. Bank Dunia IHK mengantisipasi disinflasi harga 8 secara bulan-ke-bulan pada 3 hingga 6 bulan ke depan, dengan 6 Batas sasaran BI inflasi diperkirakan akan berada Inti pada kisaran batas 8-10 persen 4 melalui kuartal kedua tahun 2014. Setelah itu, ketika 2 pengaruh kenaikan harga BBM telah mereda, inflasi diperkirakan 0 akan kembali turun ke batas Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 sasaran Bank Indonesia Bank Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Indonesia (Gambar 26). Inflasi inti diperkirakan akan meningkat karena dampak lanjutan kedua yang moderat dari kenaikan harga BBM dan inflasi impor, dan kemudian kembali ke tingkat yang lebih rendah, sejalan dengan prospek pertumbuhan yang lebih rendah dan berakhirnya dampak lanjutan kedua dari kenaikan harga BBM. 6. Risiko fiskal dari beban subsidi energi kembali meningkat Defisit fiskal hingga Perlemahan yang terus terjadi dalam pertumbuhan PDB nominal, penurunan harga bulan Agustus cukup komoditas internasional, dan depresiasi nominal Rupiah, telah berdampak terhadap sektor besar dibanding fiskal Indonesia. Pada periode Januari-Agustus 2013, tercatat nilai defisit keseluruhan sebesar periode yang sama Rp 101 triliun, dibanding defisit sebesar Rp 35 triliun pada periode yang sama tahun lalu pada tahun 2012… (Tabel 4). Pertumbuhan penerimaan riil juga telah menurun, namun laju pencairan anggaran secara keseluruhan menunjukkan sedikit perbaikan. …karena penurunan Delapan bulan pertama tahun 2013 mencatat moderasi pertumbuhan penerimaan yang luas, penerimaan yang yang mencapai 56 persen dari target untuk tahun 2013 selama periode Januari-Agustus. bersifat luas … Secara khusus, pajak pendapatan non-migas, yang merupakan sebagian besar pajak pendapatan (sekitar 86 persen) dan hanya sedikit lebih rendah dari sepertiga jumlah penerimaan, mencatat penurunan pertumbuhan yoy yang berarti (6 persen dibanding rata-rata pertumbuhan sebesar 14 persen pada periode yang sama tahun 2010-2012). Pungutan pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) juga melemah (ke 13 persen dibanding rata-rata 22 persen pada periode yang sama tahun 2010-2012). Pajak-pajak internasional, terutama bea ekspor, mencatat kontraksi sebesar 13 persen yoy, disebabkan menurunnya harga komoditas yang juga mempengaruhi penerimaan bukan pajak, baik dari migas dan sektor sumber daya lainnya. Secara keseluruhan penerimaan bukan pajak pada delapan bulan pertama tahun 2013 hanya meningkat sebesar 3 persen yoy dibanding rata-rata sebesar 19 persen pada periode yang sama pada tahun 2010-2012. …sementara kinerja Pada akhir bulan Agustus sekitar Rp 946 triliun, atau 55 persen dari jumlah anggaran belanja eksekusi anggaran pada APBN-P 2013, telah dibelanjakan, sedikit di atas tingkat pengeluaran pada periode yang mencatat sedikit sama pada tahun 2012 sebesar 54 persen pada tahun 2012. Pertumbuhan belanja pada perbaikan… delapan bulan pertama tahun 2013 mencapai 14 persen yoy, turun dari 23 persen pada tahun 2012. Pengeluaran subsidi energi tercatat sedikit di atas 30 persen dari total belanja tidak termasuk transfer, mencapai 65 persen dari alokasi APBN-P 2013. Belanja modal tampaknya mulai membaik, dengan bertumbuh sebesar 18 persen dibanding periode yang sama tahun lalu. Namun pencairan belanja masih tetap condong ke akhir tahun, dengan hanya 32 persen pencairan dalam delapan bulan pertama, walau tingkat itu sudah merupakan peningkatan dari pencairan sebesar 29 persen pada delapan bulan pertama tahun 2012. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 19 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …walau tantangan Pada akhir bulan Juni 2013, Kementerian Keuangan melaporkan anggaran kementerian dan blokir (tanda bintang) lembaga (K/L) negara sebesar Rp 32 triliun (5 persen dari jumlah keseluruhan) masih berada masih ada… dalam keadaan terblokir (dimana DIPA diblokir dengan pemberian tanda bintang), yang merupakan penurunan dari tingkat blokir pada akhir bulan April 2013 sebesar Rp 87 triliun (atau 15 persen dari jumlah anggaran kementerian negara).6 Persetujuan bersyarat ini, yang merintangi pencairan secara signifikan, disebabkan oleh kegiatan yang membutuhkan persetujuan DPR, dokumen pendukung yang kurang lengkap seperti kerangka acuan (terms of reference, TOR), rincian biaya dan Surat Pernyataan Tanggung Jawab Mutlak. Tabel 4: Pertumbuhan penerimaan melambat pada periode Jan – Agu 2013 dibanding tahun-tahun yang lalu (triliun Rupiah, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Nilai nominal (Jan - Agu) Proporsi (Jan - Agu) APBN-P Pertumbuhan nominal YoY (triliun Rp) (Persen) (Persen) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 A. Penerimaan 603 719 798 845 60,8 61,4 51,1 56,3 21,0 19,2 11,0 5,9 1. Penerimaan pajak 448 535 615 657 60,3 60,9 52,5 57,2 15,6 19,5 14,9 6,9 PPh Migas 34 41 51 50 61,2 62,7 64,0 66,8 -2,5 20,7 25,8 -3,5 PPh Non-migas 197 232 256 272 64,1 63,4 51,0 58,5 13,7 18,1 10,1 6,3 Pajak penj. (PPN) 137 157 204 230 51,9 52,7 52,1 54,3 20,9 15,2 29,9 12,6 Cukai 43 49 62 72 73,3 72,3 63,8 68,8 18,6 13,3 26,2 16,0 Pajak dagang int’l 16 37 33 29 71,0 79,1 59,8 59,8 31,3 131,8 -10,4 -13,0 2. Pen. bukan pajak 155 182 181 186 62,5 63,5 46,6 53,4 39,7 17,7 -0,4 2,8 Migas 83 106 92 91 54,4 61,3 40,2 50,6 55,4 28,7 -13,2 -0,9 Non-migas 12 14 15 16 94,5 73,7 67,1 69,2 32,6 12,7 9,4 5,5 A. Pengeluaran 557 678 833 946 49.4 51.3 53.8 54.8 7.1 21.8 22.9 13.6 1. Pemerintah pusat 348 432 533 616 44,6 47,5 49,8 51,4 4,7 23,9 23,4 15,6 Pegawai 98 125 137 153 60,1 68,5 64,7 65,5 8,8 28,2 9,6 11,2 Barang 45 52 63 70 40,0 36,6 38,8 34,6 21,8 16,1 20,4 11,3 Modal 27 37 51 61 28,7 26,1 29,1 32,2 -11,1 35,3 39,3 18,0 Pembayaran bunga 58 63 66 73 54,8 58,9 56,3 64,8 -9,7 8,3 5,7 9,9 Subsidi 87 128 170 213 43,0 54,1 69,2 61,1 48,9 48,3 32,2 25,4 Energi 73 114 155 195 50,9 58,3 76,5 64,9 69,4 55,5 35,8 25,8 BBM 43 84 106 132 47,9 64,6 77,3 66,2 167,5 96,8 26,7 24,7 Listrik 31 30 48 62 55,6 45,9 74,6 62,2 12,3 -1,8 61,0 28,2 Sosial 31 24 42 46 44,0 29,5 49,1 56,7 -6,2 -22,9 74,6 8,2 2. Transfer 208 246 300 330 60,4 59,7 62,7 62,4 11,2 18,2 21,9 10,0 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia …dan sejumlah aturan Untuk mengatasi sejumlah kendala pelaksanaan anggaran, Pemerintah telah mengambil dan kebijakan baru langkah-langkah dalalm memperbaiki peraturan. Secara khusus, Peraturan Pemerintah yang telah diluncurkan baru (PP 45/2013) diterbitkan untuk menghapuskan syarat penunjukan kembali pejabat untuk mengatasi satuan kerja (satker) setiap tahun. Aturan ini memungkinkan para satker untuk mulai bekerja tantangan pelaksanaan pada awal tahun fiskal, sehingga mempercepat pencairan belanja; memperkenalkan anggaran pengendalian komitmen yang, bersama-sama manfaat lain, akan membantu Kementerian Keuangan dalam memantau jumlah dana yang dialokasikan oleh kementerian negara dan mengambil tindakan dini bila terdapat penundaan dalam pelaksanaan; memungkinkan pengadaan dini sebelum tahun fiskal dimulai, sehingga kontrak dapat ditandatangani lebih awal pada suatu tahun fiskal, dan memberikan dasar hukum bagi penerusan anggaran ke tahun berikutnya untuk kegiatan-kegiatan prioritas nasional dan kontrak tahun jamak. 6 http://www.anggaran.depkeu.go.id/dja/acontent/Perkemb_blokir_24%20Juni%202013_1A.pdf O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 20 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kementerian Keuangan juga telah menerbitkan peraturan baru (PMK 94/2013) yang menyertakan aturan untuk mempercepat pelaksanaan anggaran. Aturan itu, yang menetapkan bagaimana dokumen anggaran disiapkan dan dikaji, termasuk aturan untuk: menghilangkan penggunaan blokir anggaran (tanda bintang), dan kementerian negara kini diberi tanggung jawab untuk menangani persyaratan apapun yang terkait dengan hal anggaran tanpa harus mengirimkan dokumen ke Kementerian Keuangan untuk mendapatkan persetujuan terlebih dahulu; dan penyertaan unit audit internal kementerian/lembaga (K/L) negara sebagai pemeriksa dokumen anggaran sebelum persetujuannya (sementara peran auditor internal masih diselesaikan, niatnya adalah untuk tidak membentuk alasan penundaan baru dalam pengelolaan anggaran). Peraturan itu adalah langkah yang positif, namun tingkat efektivitasnya akan bergantung pada kemajuan sosialisasi dan implementasinya. Kotak 1: Perkembangan terkini tentang bantuan langsung tunai dan tingkat kemiskinan Mengikuti kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada tanggal 22 Juni, Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat (BLSM) telah didistribusikan ke 15,5 juta rumah tangga melalui PT POS dengan menggunakan Kartu Perlindungan Social (KPS). Seperti diuraikan pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Juli, BLSM merupakan salah satu paket kompensasi yang diberikan oleh Pemerintah untuk memitigasi dampak peningkatan harga BBM terhadap rumah tangga miskin dan rentan. Tiga program lainnya termasuk perluasan bantuan langsung tunai yaitu Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) dan beasiswa, Bantuan untuk Siswa Miskin (BSM), dan peningkatan sementara alokasi beras untuk rakyat miskin, Beras Miskin (Raskin). Menurut PT POS, 94 persen dari alokasi tahap pertama sebesar Rp 4,7 triliun telah dicairkan. Sisa 6 persen yang belum dicairkan umumnya disebabkan oleh kesulitan dalam menemukan penerima yang dituju. Tahap kedua, yang dimulai pada tanggal 2 September telah mencapai 94 persen dari alokasi (per tanggal 1 Oktober), yang menunjukkan distribusi yang relatif lancar. Untuk memperbaiki ketidaktepatan dalam daftar penerima, Pemerintah telah meningkatkan fleksibilitas dengan memperkenankan masyarakat pada tingkat desa untuk memeriksa dan mengubah daftar penerima bantuan melalui musyawarah kelurahan atau desa (muskel/musdes). Beralih ke gambaran yang lebih besar tentang kemiskinan, pada tanggal 1 Juli, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan tingkat kemiskinan nasional pada bulan Maret 2013 adalah 11,4 persen. Angka ini merupakan penurunan sebesar 0,6 poin persentase dari 12,0 persen pada bulan Maret 2012. Tingkat kemiskinan pedesaan (14,3 persen) tetap hampir mencapai dua kali tingkat kemiskinan perkotaan (8,4 persen), namun terus menyusut dengan cepat, dari masing-masing sebesar 15,1 persen dan 8,8 persen pada tahun yang lalu. Garis rata-rata kemiskinan nasional telah meningkat sebesar 9,2 persen dari Rp 248.707 per orang per bulan menjadi Rp 271.626, di dorong oleh peningkatan harga bahan pangan dan bukan pangan, lintas daerah perkotaan dan pedesaan. Variasi kemiskinan antar daerah sangat tinggi, misalnya tingkat kemiskinan di Maluku dan Papua pada 24,0 persen, adalah dua kali rata-rata nasional, sementara Kalimantan memiliki tingkat kemiskinan paling rendah 6,4 persen, atau sekitar setengah dari rata-rata nasional. Penurunan tingkat kemiskinan sebesar 0,6 poin persentase tahun ini kira-kira setara dengan penurunan sebesar 0,5 persen pada 2011 dan 2012. Penurunan ini meneruskan tren perlambatan laju penurunan kemiskinan pada beberapa tahun terakhir, dengan dua tahun terakhir mencatat penurunan yang paling kecil secara poin persentase dalam satu dekade, dengan pengecualian terjadinya peningkatan kemiskinan pada tahun 2006 karena gejolak harga bahan pangan dunia. Seperti dibahas pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013, perlambatan penurunan kemiskinan bukan tidak diperkirakan dengan kemiskinan mendekati 10 persen, karena penduduk miskin yang tersisa terletak semakin jauh di bawah garis kemiskinan, sehingga membutuhkan pertumbuhan konsumsi yang lebih cepat untuk menjaga laju pengentasan kemiskinan yang sama seperti diukur oleh tingkat kemiskinan yang resmi. Secara umum, tren ini, bersama-sama dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diproyeksikan untuk 2014 dan peningkatan inflasi, akan membatasi perkiraan pengentasan kemiskinan tahun 2014. Namun pencairan BLSM pada paruh kedua tahun 2013 tampaknya akan memitigasi tekanan naik pada tingkat kemiskinan. Sebagai akibatnya, kemungkinan pencapaian sasaran RPJM Pemerintah dalam mengentaskan kemiskinan menjadi 8 hingga 10 persen pada 2014 menjadi tidak jelas. Namun perluasan program jaring pengaman sosial jangka panjang yang sedang berlangsung – terutama BSM dan PKH – merupakan strategi yang penting untuk mempercepat laju pengentasan kemiskinan setelah 2014. Catatan: Lihat Triwulanan edisi bulan Juli 2013 untuk rincian paket kompensasi tahun 2013 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; BPS; PT Pos Indonesia (http://blsm.posindonesia.co.id/main.php) Bank Dunia Memperhitungkan realisasi selama periode Januari-Agustus, penurunan harga komoditas, memproyeksikan depresiasi Rupiah, dan pertumbuhan nominal PDB yang lebih lemah, Bank Dunia merevisi defisit anggaran 2013 proyeksi defisit anggaran tahun 2013 dari Rp 189 triliun seperti tercantum pada Triwulanan sebesar 2,5 persen dari edisi bulan Juli (2,1 persen dari PDB) ke Rp 226 triliun (2,5 persen dari PDB) (Tabel 5). PDB pada 2013 dan 2,3 Proyeksi penerimaan telah diturunkan sebesar 1,0 persen, dan proyeksi jumlah belanja persen dari PDB pada direvisi naik sebesar 1,4 persen (sebagian besar karena peningkatan proyeksi belanja subsidi 2014 energi, walau harga BBM bersubsidi telah dinaikan pada bulan Juni, lihat Kotak 2). Untuk tahun 2014, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit APBN sebesar 2,3 persen dari PDB, walau banyak hal jelas akan bergantung dari APBN 2014 yang akan disahkan DPR. APBN 2014 sedang RAPBN 2014 sedang dibahas di DPR dan diperkirakan akan disetujui (dengan sejumlah dalam pembahasan di amandemen) pada akhir bulan Oktober. Proyeksi defisit anggaran pada RAPBN adalah 1,5 DPR persen dari PDB, namun Menteri Keuangan mengumumkan bahwa perkiraan terakhir defisit tahun 2014 dapat mencapai 2,02 persen dari PDB.7 7 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/09/17/budget-deficit-2014-estimated-reach-202- percent.html O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 21 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Mengenai sejumlah kategori pengeluaran utama, belanja pegawai diusulkan untuk meningkat sebesar 19 persen dibanding APBN-P 2013, yang mencerminkan reformasi birokrasi yang masih berlangsung, dan peningkatan dalam gaji dasar dan pembayaran pensiun masing- masing sebesar 6 persen dan 4 persen. Pemerintah menerapkan kebijakan anggaran mendatar bagi belanja barang (flat policy), terutama bagi pengeluaran-pengeluaran yang berkaitan dengan operasi, rapat-rapat dan perjalanan dinas. Belanja modal diusulkan akan meningkat sebesar 7 persen, menyiratkan peningkatan yang tidak begitu besar secara riil setelah pertumbuhan belanja modal riil yang sangat kuat selama beberapa tahun yang lalu, walau memang dimulai dari tingkat dasar yang rendah. RAPBN juga memperkirakan penerapan kebijakan-kebijakan baru, seperti dimensi kesehatan untuk Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional (SJSN) yang baru, dan usulan penyesuaian tarif listrik lebih lanjut bagi pelanggan tertertentu untuk semakin meningkatkan kualitas belanja. Sama seperti APBN 2012 dan 2013, RAPBN ini juga menyertakan aturan persiapan menghadapi krisis yang memberikan fleksibilitas bagi Pemerintah untuk menanggapi perubahan situasi ekonomi makro dengan cepat. Tabel 5: Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit fiskal 2,5 persen tahun 2013, naik dari 2,1 persen pada IEQ Juli 2013 (triliun Rupiah, kecuali dinyatakan lain) 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 Bank Bank Realisasi Realisasi APBN-P RAPBN Dunia Dunia A. Penerimaan negara dan hibah 1.211 1.338 1.502 1.434 1.663 1.569 1. Penerimaan pajak 874 981 1.148 1.082 1.310 1.215 2. Penerimaan bukan pajak 331 352 349 347 351 349 B. Pengeluaran 1.295 1.491 1.726 1.660 1.817 1.790 1. Pemerintah pusat, yaitu 884 1.011 1.197 1.131 1.230 1.204 Pegawai 176 198 233 228 277 268 Barang 125 141 203 179 204 180 Modal 118 145 188 166 206 182 Subsidi, yaitu 295 346 348 346 336 364 Subsidi BBM 165 212 200 198 195 205 2. Transfer ke daerah 411 481 529 529 586 586 C. Neraca primer 9 -53 -112 -100 -35 -95 D. Surplus/Defisit -84 -153 -224 -226 -154 -221 sebagai persen dari PDB -1,1 -1,9 -2,4 -2,5 -1,5 -2,3 E. Pembiayaan bersih 131 175 224 n.a. 154 n.a. 1. Pembiayaan dalam negeri 149 199 241 n.a. 173 n.a. 2. Pembiayaan luar negeri -18 -23 -17 n.a. -19 n.a. Asumsi ekonomi utama Pertumbuhan ekonomi (persen) 6,5 6,2 6,3 5,6 6,4 5,3 Inflasi (yoy, persen) 3,8 4,3 7,2 9,8 4,5 4,4 Kurs tukar (Rp/dolar AS) 8.779 9.384 9.600 10.400 9.750 11.400 Harga minyak (dolar AS/barel) 112 113 108 106 106 105 Produksi minyak (ribu barel/hari) 899 861 840 840 870 870 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Depresiasi Rupiah Depresiasi Rupiah sampai bulan September memberikan tekanan naik terhadap sejumlah telah memperbaharui pengeluaran pemerintah, terutama pengeluaran subsidi BBM (lihat Kotak 2). Dengan tekanan terhadap melemahnya Rupiah, belanja subsidi BBM bagi 2013 tampaknya akan meningkat sebesar Rp meningkatnya biaya 21 triliun dibanding proyeksi pada Triwulanan bulan Juli. Karenanya, pada skenario dasar subsidi (baseline), proyeksi penghematan bersih tahun 2013 (termasuk belanja untuk BLSM dan program-program kompensasi) dari kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni 2013 sebesar Rp 13,1 triliun akan hilang, walau biaya subsidi lebih tinggi tanpa penyesuaian harga ini. Perkembangan ini menyoroti risiko fiskal dari sistem subsidi tetap yang berlaku sekarang, disesuaikan secara ad hoc berkala, terhadap perubahan kurs tukar atau harga minyak. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 22 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Perkembangan ini juga menekankan urgensi dan pentingnya terus melanjutkan reformasi subsidi energi, seperti bergerak ke pendekatan yang lebih berdasar aturan, untuk membuat kemajuan berkelanjutan dalam meningkatkan kualitas belanja publik. Kotak 2: Dampak fiskal dari perubahan kurs tukar Rupiah dan harga minyak Simulasi dapat dilakukan untuk melihat risiko langsung terhadap defisit anggaran yang berasal dari perubahan kurs tukar dan harga minyak internasional. Sebagai contoh, depresiasi Rupiah sebesar 10 persen terhadap dolar AS dibanding asumsi dasar (base case) Bank Dunia diperkirakan akan membawa pengaruh langsung pada peningkatan defisit fiskal sekitar 0,7 poin persentase dari PDB pada tahun 2013 dan 2014, masing-masing menjadi 3,2 persen dan 3,0 persen. Hal ini jelas mengasumsikan bahwa tidak ada penyesuaian dalam tingkat belanja sebagai tanggapannya, suatu hal yang sangat mungkin terjadi dengan adanya aturan pembatasan defisit PDB nasional sebesar 3 persen. Kenaikan harga minyak mentah sebesar 10 persen dibanding kondisi dasar (baseline) diproyeksikan akan menambah sekitar 0,4 poin persentase dari PDB terhadap defisit fiskal baseline. Perkiraan kepekaan defisit fiskal yang cukup besar terhadap kurs tukar dan harga minyak mentah umumnya berasal dari sisi belanja, terutama karena peningkatan dalam biaya subsidi energi, transfer ke daerah dari bagi hasil migas, dan peningkatan belanja untuk pendidikan (dengan mandat bahwa belanja pendidikan harus merupakan 20 persen dari jumlah belanja). Walau dampak terhadap penerimaan tidaklah sebesar dampak terhadap belanja, proyeksi penerimaan nominal turut menerima dampak negatif; perubahan dalam kurs tukar mempengaruhi pungutan bea cukai dan PPN (bea impor maupun ekspor), sementara perubahan harga minyak mempengaruhi penerimaan melalui pajak pendapatan dari migas, PPN (melalui sensitivitas impor terhadap perubahan harga minyak, dan melalui peningkatan harga dan dampak perubahannya pada konsumsi swasta), bea cukai (bea ekspor maupun impor) dan penerimaan bukan pajak dari sumber-sumber daya alam. Hasil-hasil simulasi ini harus digunakan sebagai indikasi saja. Secara khusus mereka menekankan kepada dampak fiskal langsung tahap pertama dan tidak termasuk dampak tidak langsung melalui pengaruh ekonomi yang lebih luas dari kejutan itu. Selain itu, mereka membutuhkan sejumlah asumsi (karena ketebatasan data dan statistika), dan tidak memperhitungkan fungsi reaksi kebijakan terhadap kejutan tersebut, seperti misalnya pemotongan belanja lain atau kemajuan pelaksanaan reformasi-reformasi fiskal lainnya. Tabel 6: Depresiasi Rupiah atau kenaikan harga minyak sebesar 10 persen berdampak langsung terhadap defisit APBN setidaknya sebesar 0,4 poin persentase dari PDB (triliun Rupiah, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Simulasi 1 Simulasi 2: Dasar (Baseline) Depresiasi Rupiah Naiknya harga minyak 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 Penerimaan 1.434 1.569 1.431 1.565 1.460 1.592 Pengeluaran 1.660 1.790 1.721 1.860 1.716 1.853 Subsidi energi 297 312 342 362 335 355 BBM 198 205 234 246 231 243 Listrik 100 107 108 116 105 112 Transfer ke daerah 529 586 536 594 533 591 Tambahan belanja pendidikan 20% 10 12 9 10 Surplus/Defisit -226 -221 -290 -295 -256 -261 sebagai persen dari PDB -2,5 -2,3 -3,2 -3,0 -2,9 -2,7 Asumsi ekonomi utama Kurs tukar (Rupiah/dolar AS) 10.400 11.400 11.440 12.540 10.400 11.400 Harga minyak (dolar AS/barel) 106 105 106 105 117 115 Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Pembiayaan hutang Mengikuti APBN-P 2013 dan peningkatan proyeksi defisit sebesar Rp 70,9 triliun, bruto secara umum kebutuhan pembiayaan hutang bruto untuk tahun 2013 meningkat sebesar Rp 51,4 triliun berada pada jalur yang dibandingkan sebelumnya, menjadi Rp 330,8 triliun, menurut Ditjen Pengelolaan Utang. tepat Penerbitan obligasi umumnya berada pada jalur yang tepat, dengan 25 persen dari sasaran yang telah direvisi untuk tahun 2013 yang masih harus dipenuhi pada awal kuartal terakhir, dan kondisi penerbitan telah membaik sejak bulan Juni, dengan penerbitan hutang sebesar Rp 104,9 triliun yang telah diterbitkan sejak awal bulan Juli, yang mana Rp 76 triliun merupakan hutang dengan jatuh tempo lebih dari satu tahun.8 8 Lihat Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang, Presentasi Pertemuan Investor September 2013, tersedia secara online. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 23 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 7. Penetapan kebijakan dan kemajuan reformasi yang berjalan dapat memainkan peran penting sejalan dengan penyesuaian neraca eksternal Perkembangan- Dalam skenario dasar, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan akan mengalami perkembangan neraca perlambatan dan kemudian stabil pada tingkat yang masih kokoh namun lebih sesuai dengan eksternal membawa defisit neraca berjalan yang lebih bekelanjutan di bawah kondisi likuiditas dunia yang lebih risiko jangka pendek ketat. Perkembangan ekonomi dan penetapan kebijakan, khususnya melambatnya terbesar terhadap pertumbuhan permintaan dalam negeri, peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi bulan Juni, pertumbuhan… pengetatan kebijakan moneter setelahnya, dan berlanjutnya depresiasi Rupiah, seluruhnya bersifat kondusif dalam menjaga stabilitas makroekonomi, prasyarat bagi pertumbuhan dan pembangunan. Risiko utama terhadap skenario dasar (baseline) ini adalah dengan berlangsungnya penyesuaian, dan diproyeksikan berlanjut, meningkatnya tekanan pembiayaan eksternal yang signifikan, misalnya karena perlemahan lebih lanjut yang signifikan dalam harga komoditas ekspor utama atau dinamika investasi masuk bersih. Hal itu akan membutuhkan penyesuaian yang lebih cepat melalui depresiasi lanjutan Rupiah yang signifikan, sehingga memberi tekanan pada cadangan devisa, dan membutuhkan pengetatan kebijakan moneter untuk menstabilisasikan neraca eksternal Indonesia, yang menurunkan tingkat kepercayaan dan semakin menurunkan pertumbuhan (lihat Kotak 3 untuk pembahasan tentang sensitivitas pertumbuhan melalui dampak investasi). …yang menekankan Pengaturan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter Indonesia akan terus memegang peran penting pentingnya dalam memfasilitasi penyesuaian yang kini berlangsung dan dalam meminimalkan risiko- keberlanjutan risiko terkait. Namun terdapat trade-off antara tujuan membatasi inflasi, mendukung fleksibilitas kebijakan pertumbuhan dan menyesuaikan defisit neraca berjalan kepada kondisi pendanaan yang lebih makroekonomi untuk ketat. Kebijakan moneter menghadapi tantangan dalam menyesuaikan suku bunga dan nilai memfasilitasi tukar valuta sehingga dapat memberi perlindungan terhadap tekanan inflasi dengan penyesuaian jangka meningkatnya tekanan biaya (seperti yang berasal dari pengaruh lemahnya mata uang atau pendek… kenaikan upah) sementara memfasilitasi perbaikan neraca eksternal, dan tanpa terlalu menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan melemahkan neraca pemerintah dan swasta. Dengan pembahasan RAPBN 2014 yang sedang dilakukan oleh DPR, kebijakan fiskal menghadapi tantangan lemahnya pertumbuhan penerimaan dan peningkatan biaya pendanaan-hutang, yang meningkatkan pentingnya memperbaiki kualitas belanja dan mobilisasi penerimaan. Menjaga posisi fiskal yang berhati-hati secara keseluruhan, berkoordinasi dengan pengetatan kebijakan moneter, dapat membantu menjawab tantangan itu. Bertolak dari kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni, upaya reformasi lanjutan terhadap sistem subsidi energi yang tidak efisien dan distortif saat ini dapat membantu membebaskan belanja bagi pengeluaran pembangunan utama seperti infrastruktur dan kesehatan, dan juga membatasi risiko fiskal terhadap gejolak kurs tukar valuta atau kejutan harga minyak dunia. …menurunkan Adanya ketidakpastian yang berasal dari perlambatan momentum pertumbuhan, dan kondisi ketidakpastian melalui pendanaan eksternal yang rentan namun umumnya mengetat, menjaga komunikasi yang jelas komunikasi dan terhadap perubahan kebijakan dan penekanan yang kuat terhadap implementasinya dapat perencanaan keadaan membantu mendorong tingkat kepercayaan. Kebijakan juga memainkan peran dalam darurat… memitigasi dampak negatif berbagai skenario, termasuk jika risiko-risiko terburuk terjadi. Pemerintah telah melakukan berbagai upaya untuk meningkatkan persiapan menghadapi krisis dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Mekanisme koordinasi pemantauan dan tanggapan telah dibentuk untuk mendukung tanggapan yang fleksibel terhadap dampak dislokasi pasar. Pemerintah memiliki fasilitas pembiayaan fiskal darurat dengan jumlah sekitar 5 miliar dolar AS yang dapat digunakan dalam hal terjadi penurunan yang signifikan dalam kondisi pendanaan, sementara Bank Indonesia telah berupaya untuk mendapatkan tambahan jalur pertukaran (swap) bilateral tambahan dalam dolar AS. …dan terus Tekanan yang belakangan terjadi terhadap neraca eksternal dan pertumbuhan menjadi mendorong kemajuan pengingat akan perlunya upaya lanjutan dalam meningkatkan diversifikasi ekspor dan dalam reformasi untuk meningkatkan daya saing ekonomi untuk mendorong laju pertumbuhan dan pembangunan O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 24 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia meningkatkan laju yang lebih cepat. Depresiasi Rupiah akan mendorong daya saing dalam jangka pendek, pertumbuhan namun pengaruhnya hanya akan bertahan bila tidak terkena tekanan biaya dalam negeri, Indonesia yang seperti yang berasal dari kenaikan upah, dan jika kebijakan dan investasi disiapkan untuk berkelanjutan meningkatkan fleksibilitas sisi penawaran. Upaya-upaya untuk meningkatkan daya saing dan lingkungan peraturan akan meringankan tekanan pendanaan eksternal jangka pendek dengan memberi stimulasi ekspor dan mendorong penanaman modal asing langsung, dan juga membantu meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketenagakerjaan jangka panjang. Paket kebijakan Pemerintah, yang diumumkan pada tanggal 23 Agustus, berisi aturan-aturan yang menjawab sebagian masalah tersebut; lihat pada Bagian B.1. Kotak 3: Sensitivitas pertumbuhan PDB terhadap investasi Gambar 27: Perkiraan pertumbuhan PDB peka terhadap Investasi, yang merupakan 33 persen dari PDB dan telah menjadi pendorong utama bagi kinerja pertumbuhan Indonesia dalam beberapa prospek investasi tahun terakhir, merupakan kunci dari prospek ekonomi secara (pertumbuhan PDB, yoy, persen) keseluruhan. Dalam skenario dasar (base case) Bank Dunia mengasumsikan pertumbuhan investasi akan tetap lemah selama sisa 7.0 tahun 2013 dan masuk ke tahun 2014. Proyeksi ini berlandaskan pada perlambatan keuntungan perusahaan dan kondisi pendanaan yang lebih 6.5 ketat. Investasi juga dapat menghadapi rintangan dengan peningkatan siklus politik menjelang pemilu nasional tahun 2014, dan yang berasal dari ketidakpastian yang masih ada yang melingkupi kebijakan dan 6.0 Tinggi peraturan. 5.5 Baseline Namun asumsi dasar investasi ini juga bergantung kepada risiko-risiko Rendah yang signifikan, dengan investasi tampaknya akan bersifat sensitif Sangat terhadap lintasan kebijakan moneter dalam negeri yang akan datang, 5.0 rendah harga komoditas dunia, kurs tukar valuta, kondisi pendanaan luar negeri, dan kondisi kredit dalam negeri. Sebagai contoh, pengetatan 4.5 lebih lanjut dalam kebijakan moneter dalam negeri akan menghambat pertumbuhan investasi, sejalan dengan temuan IMF (2012) bahwa peningkatan suku bunga riil sebesar 1 persen akan menyebabkan 4.0 penurunan sebesar 0,2 persen dalam pertumbuhan investasi. Namun analisis ini juga menemukan bahwa sebetulnya faktor yang memiliki dampak paling signifikan terhadap investasi di Indonesia adalah gejolak pada suku bunga jangka pendek, diikuti dengan gejolak kurs tukar Catatan: Lintasan “tinggi” dan “rendah” mengasumsikan valuta. Sebagai akibatnya, keberlanjutan gejolak pasar valuta dan pertumbuhan investasi adalah 1 poin persentase lebih tinggi dan keuangan yang belakangan terjadi memiliki potensi untuk membebani lebih rendah dari baseline 2014. Skenario “sangat rendah” investasi secara lebih signifikan. Penurunan lebih lanjut pada harga- mengasumsikan bahwa investasi akan berada 2 poin persentase harga komoditas ekspor utama Indonesia, yang mendorong penurunan lebih rendah dari baseline 2014, perlambatan yang setara dengan lebih lanjut dalam kondisi perdagangan Indonesia, dan kemungkinan yang tercatat pada krisis keuangan tahun 2008/9 tanggapan kebijakan yang terpicu oleh perkembangan yang buruk pada Sumber: BPS; proyeksi staf Bank Dunia neraca luar negeri, juga akan menurunkan profitabilitas dan laba ditahan, dan biaya dan ketersediaan pendanaan investasi. Prospek pertumbuhan PDB tahun 2014 peka terhadap lintasan investasi (Gambar 27). Deviasi sebesar 1 poin persentase dalam pertumbuhan investasi dari proyeksi dasar (baseline) tahun 2014 akan berakibat pada deviasi pertumbuhan PDB sebesar sekitar 0,3 poin persentase pada tahun 2014, membawa pertumbuhan tahunan ke kisaran 5,6 persen (naik dari pertumbuhan baseline sebesar 5,3 persen), atau turun mendekati 5,0 persen. Dalam skenario yang lebih buruk, dengan investasi melemah seperti yang terjadi pada waktu krisis keuangan dunia (sekitar 2 poin persentase lebih rendah dari baseline), maka pertumbuhan PDB untuk tahun 2014 akan lebih rendah sekitar 0,6 poin persentase, pada kisaran 4,7 persen (Gambar 27). Catatan: Lihat IMF (2012) Selected Issues Paper, September 2012, IMF Country Report No. 12/278 O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 25 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia B. Beberapa perkembangan terkini perekonomian Indonesia 1. Paket kebijakan Pemerintah yang diumumkan pada bulan Agustus Menanggapi tekanan Seperti dibahas pada Bagian A, tekanan pasar keuangan Indonesia meningkat pada pasar, Pemerintah pertengahan bulan Agustus, setelah pengumuman statistik neraca pembayaran triwulan mengumumkan suatu kedua yang menunjukkan defisit neraca berjalan yang lebih besar dari perkiraan, bersamaan paket kebijakan pada penurunan minat investor terhadap aset-aset pasar berkembang di seluruh dunia. Sebagai bulan Agustus … tanggapan, Pemerintah Indonesia mengumumkan suatu paket kebijakan (“paket”) pada tanggal 23 Agustus, agar bisa menanggapi ketidakseimbangan eksternal Indonesia, dengan mendorong ekspor dan membatasi impor, mempromosikan investasi untuk meningkatkan kapasitas pada sisi penyediaan dan menaikkan produktivitas, serta menyediakan peluang kerja selama kemungkinan melambatnya laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka pendek. Bagian ini memberikan tinjauan singkat tentang aturan-aturan yang telah diumumkan. Sementara itu ringkasan akan tanggapan kebijakan diumumkan oleh Bank Indonesia dan OJK disediakan dalam pembahasan bagian A. … yang bertujuan Paket kebijakan itu berfokus pada stabilisasi ekonomi dan perbaikan struktural dan berisi untuk stabilisasi dan empat pilar. Pertama, mendukung penanaman modal asing secara langsung (FDI) melalui perbaikan struktural, “penghilangan hambatan” proyek-proyek investasi strategis utama, menyederhanakan yang disusun dalam persyaratan perizinan, dan mempercepat revisi daftar negatif investasi. Kedua, aturan-aturan empat pilar itu hendak meningkatkan saldo neraca berjalan, dengan memberikan potongan pajak bagi perusahaan-perusahaan berorientasi ekspor, meningkatkan bea masuk sejumlah barang mewah, dan meningkatkan kapasitas biodiesel produksi dalam negeri ke dalam komposisi BBM (untuk membantu mengurangi impor BBM). Ketiga, aturan-aturan itu bertujuan untuk menjaga pertumbuhan ketenagakerjaan, termasuk potongan pajak bagi sektor-sektor padat karya, pelonggaran sejumlah batasan pada kawasan-kawasan berikat, dan revisi terhadap proses penetapan upah minimum. Keempat, aturan-aturan itu hendak menurunkan inflasi, terutama dengan mengganti pembatasan impor dengan mekanisme berbasis harga untuk daging dan produk holtikultura. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 26 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia a. Langkah-langkah untuk mendukung investasi asing langsung Perubahan daftar Implementasi awal dari aturan-aturan pendukung investasi memfokuskan pada percepatan negatif investasi (DNI) revisi Daftar Negatif Investasi (DNI), yang menetapkan batasan bagi investasi asing pada telah diumumkan… bidang usaha di Indonesia. Revisi DNI telah dibahas oleh Pemerintah dan dibahas dengan sektor swasta yang telah berlangsung sejak tahun 2013. …yang mengikuti Pemerintah telah mengumumkan bahwa revisi DNI akan mengikuti sejumlah prinsip-prinsip sejumlah prinsip pedoman. Pertama, DNI yang telah direvisi haruslah “ramah-investor”, sejauh pedoman diperkenankan oleh UU yang ada (karena membatasi kewenangan Peraturan Presiden. Sebagai contoh, UU Hortikultura membatasi kepemilikan asing di dalam usaha hortikultura sampai 30 persen, batas yang akan disertakan ke dalam DNI yang baru). Kedua, perubahan- perubahan DNI yang diusulkan oleh kementerian-kementerian yang memiliki efek peningkatan pembatasan tidak akan diterima. Ketiga, klasifikasi industri akan disederhanakan, dan peraturan pengawasan dari industri itu akan diselaraskan, untuk mencegah duplikasi (misalnya, jika suatu sektor usaha kini diatur oleh dua kementerian, maka harus dikurangi menjadi hanya satu kementerian, dengan peraturan yang paling tidak mengikat yang akan berlaku). Prinsip-prinsip pemandu revisi DNI itu menunjukkan bahwa DNI yang baru akan tetap membatasi kepemilikan asing yang berlaku, sesuai UU yang ada, di sektor hortikultura, namun melonggarkan batas kepemilikan asing pada sejumlah kecil bidang-bidang lain, terutama pariwisata, farmasi, industri dan transportasi. Revisi DNI yang DNI yang baru belum diumumkan atau diberlakukan, dan penundaan dalam finalisasi dan “ramah–investor” akan penerbitan DNI baru ini seharusnya dihindari, karena sebetulnya DNI yang baru itu akan membantu memberikan kepastian tambahan terhadap batas kepemilikan asing di berbagai bidang. mengurangi Secara umum, penekanan pada pedoman-pedoman untuk percepatan perubahan mendorong ketidakpastian kerangka investasi asing yang lebih terbuka. Secara prinsip, hal ini akan bersifat positif bagi peraturan, walau masih investasi asing. Selain perubahan DNI, masih terdapat ruang peningkatan bagi keseluruhan ada tantangan yang lingkungan peraturan perundangan untuk investasi asing. Prosedur perubahan yang lebih besar, baik dalam jelas bagi pembatasan investasi dan strategi komunikasi akan dapat membantu meningkatkan strategi Pemerintah kejelasan dan transparansi kebijakan tersebut. Selain itu, memastikan bahwa DNI akan yang lebih luas… menjadi daftar tunggal pembatasan investasi yang lengkap merupakan hal yang dibutuhkan, karena sebelumnya DNI telah digantikan oleh aturan-aturan pembatasan investasi yang baru yang diperkenalkan lewat UU sektoral, seperti UU untuk hortikultura dan pos, yang menambah kerumitan dalam lingkungan peraturan perundangan. …dan birokrasi Langkah-langkah tambahan juga diambil untuk menyederhanakan birokrasi, dengan investasi, dengan meningkatkan efektivitas Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu di Bidang Penanaman Modal upaya untuk (PTSP), dan memangkas jenis-jenis perizinan yang terkait dengan kegiatan investasi. Sebagai menyederhanakan langkah awal, Pemerintah akan menekankan terhadap penyederhanaan perizinan sektor yang perizinan sedang penting secara strategis, yaitu sektor minyak dan gas bumi (migas), dengan memangkas jenis berjalan… perizinan investasi migas dari enam puluh sembilan yang ada sekarang menjadi delapan kelompok perizinan. Kementerian Koordinator Perekonomian dan Unit Kerja Presiden Bidang Pengawasan dan Pengendalian Pembangunan (UKP4) bekerja sama dalam penyusunan rencana aksi untuk menerapkan upaya reformasi itu dalam waktu satu tahun. …yang dapat Penekanan terhadap penyederhanaan sistem perizinan investasi merupakan langkah yang disertakan ke dalam patut disambut, karena sistem yang ada sangatlah rumit, yang seringkali memaksa para rencana reformasi investor untuk memperoleh izin-izin dan otorisasi dari berbagai kementerian dan lembaga lintas sektor yang lebih negara. Namun dibanding mengambil pendekatan khusus (ad hoc) penyederhanaan perizinan luas bagi lingkungan bagi tiap sektor – dimulai dengan migas – pada akhirnya mungkin lebih efisien untuk peraturan merencanakan, mengkomunikasikan dan melaksanakan persyaratan perizinan dan perubahan perundangan proses pada konteks rencana reformasi yang lebih besar, untuk meningkatkan lingkungan peraturan bagi usaha di seluruh sektor (termasuk sektor yang memiliki investor dengan ukuran yang lebih kecil dibanding sektor migas, yang melihat peraturan yang rumit sebagai kendala yang lebih besar dibanding perusahaan besar pada industri migas). O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 27 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia b. Langkah-langkah memperbaiki defisit neraca berjalan dan menjaga stabilitas Rupiah Langkah-langkah Tekanan terhadap neraca berjalan datang dari gabungan antara perlemahan penerimaan dalam bidang ekspor dan kuatnya permintaan impor, seperti dibahas pada Bagian A. Paket ini bertujuan, perdagangan terfokus pertama, untuk mendukung ekspor dengan memberikan potongan pajak bagi sektor padat untuk mendukung karya (tekstil, alas kaki, perabotan, mainan anak dan panganan), dengan penurunan pajak ekspor… pendapatan perusahaan sebesar 25-50 persen dari jumlah penghasilan terutang, bergantung pada tingkat orientasi ekspornya. Potongan pajak itu bersifat sementara, berlaku untuk sisa tahun pajak dari waktu berlakunya peraturan pelaksana (yaitu dari September hingga Desember 2013), dan juga memperkenankan penundaan pembayaran pajak tanpa denda hingga tiga bulan. Insentif seperti ini sulit untuk menilai dampak ex ante, dan pelaksanaan dan biaya fiskal sebaiknya se transparan mungkin. Kedua, paket bertujuan mendorong ekspor mineral dengan memperkenankan para eksportir yang memperoleh persetujuan untuk menyerahkan revisi recana kerja tahunan demi meningkatkan volume ekspornya untuk tahun 2013. Dalam press release tanggal 29 Agustus, Wakil Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral menekankan bahwa peraturan-peraturan di dalam paket itu hanya berlaku hingga bulan Januari 2014. Pembatasan ekspor bijih mineral mentah (mulai berlaku pada bulan Januari 2014) tampaknya masih akan tetap dilaksanakan sesuai jadwal semula. …dan menurunkan Langkah-langkah untuk mengurangi permintaan impor terpusat pada impor BBM dan jenis-jenis impor barang mewah. Pertama, syarat penggunaan biodiesel sebagai bagian dari keseluruhan bahan tertentu bakar meningkat, dengan tujuan untuk mengurangi kebergantungan terhadap bahan bakar solar yang berasal dari fosil. Peraturan ini bersifat jangka panjang, dengan peraturan pelaksanaan yang menetapkan bahwa peningkatan porsi biodiesel tahunan di dalam gabungan bahan bakar akan terus berlangsung hingga tahun 2025, disesuaikan dengan kelompok penggunanya. Tantangan pelaksanaan aturan ini, dan dampak yang lebih luas dari kebijakan tersebut akan sangat penting untuk bisa diakses, misalnya di sektor lingkungan dan pertanian. Kalau masih kurang yakin seberapa cepatnya peraturan ini bisa dilaksanakan atau dampak terbesar apa yang diperoleh terhadap defisit neraca berjalan, karena mempunyai potensi mendorong substitusi dari ekspor minyak kelapa sawit. Kedua, pajak barang mewah tertentu, seperti impor mobil mewah dan barang-barang konsumsi bermerek dengan harga yang tinggi, meningkat sebesar 25-50 persen. Peraturan ini, walau simbolis, tampaknya tidak akan membawa dampak material terhadap keseluruhan permintaan impor, karena barang- barang konsumsi yang termasuk dalam kelompok itu hanya memiliki porsi yang kecil (kurang dari 10 persen) dari keseluruhan impor. Sebagai bagian dari peraturan pelaksananya, pajak- pajak untuk sejumlah kelompok barang juga diturunkan, yang dapat sedikit mengimbangi dampak keseluruhan dari peraturan itu terhadap permintaan barang-barang impor. c. Langkah-langkah untuk mendukung ketenagakerjaan Fokus pada industri Selain potongan pajak bagi perusahaan-perusahaan padat karya seperti yang dibahas di atas, padat karya pada langkah-langkah pendukung ketenagakerjaan pada dasarnya terdiri dari dua bagian. Pertama, kawasan-kawasan peraturan yang berkaitan dengan kawasan berikat memperoleh pelonggaran, misalnya berikat… memperkenankan perusahaan-perusahaan yang berada di kawasan itu untuk menjual lebih banyak hasil produksinya ke dalam negeri (dinaikkan dari 25 menjadi 50 persen), dan dengan penambahan penggunaan sub-kontrak. Kawasan berikat adalah tempat terpusatnya pabrik- pabrik manufaktur ringan yang padat karya, dan mereka menerima insentif sebagai imbalan melakukan ekspor atas sebagian besar hasil produksinya. Walaupun aturan-aturan yang diumumkan sebagai bagian dari paket bulan Agustus dapat terbukti bersifat positif bagi ketenagakerjaan, pengalaman internasional menunjukkan bahwa aturan-aturan yang membuka pasar dalam negeri kepada perusahaan-perusahaan di kawasan berikat juga dapat membawa tambahan biaya dan tantangan peraturan, dan mempengaruhi insentif. Sebagai contoh, karena perusahaan-perusahaan dikenai persyaratan pajak yang berbeda terhadap porsi-porsi bagian produksinya yang berlainan, hal ini memiliki potensi menurunkan insentif bagi perusahaan-perusahaan itu untuk melakukan ekspor). O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 28 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dan pada penetapan Kedua, perubahan yang diusulkan terhadap mekanisme untuk menetapkan Upah Minimum upah minimum Provinsi (UMP) untuk mencegah pemberhentian tenaga kerja yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan upah minimum yang terlalu tinggi. Usulan reformasi ini menguraikan mekanisme bagi proses penetapan upah minimum yang lebih pasti, sederhana dan adil, yang bertujuan untuk mendukung pemilik perusahaan, pekerja dan pencari kerja, dengan mendorong penggunaan proses penetapan upah yang lebih berdasarkan bukti dan tidak dipolitisasi, demi kenaikan upah tahunan yang lebih pasti dan mudah diperkirakan, dan dengan memperkenalkan peningkatan dalam struktur pemerintahan/tata kelola yang menurunkan lingkup pembuatan keputusan secara diskresioner.9 Reformasi proses dan Reformasi proses penetapan upah minimum merupakan hal yang rumit. Negosiasi dan pelaksanaan negosiasi persetujuan akhir dilakukan pada tingkat provinsi dan sektor (dan seringkali hingga ke upah minimum tingkat kabupaten dan sub-sektor), yang lebih menyulitkan komunikasi dan kepatuhan bersifat rumit… dengan penyesuaian yang berdasarkan rumus. Secara lebih umum, penjaminan kepatuhan perusahaan dan pegawai dengan peraturan upah minimum (baik dengan revisi atau tidak) bukanlah hal yang mudah, dan membutuhkan pemantauan dan koordinasi pada tingkat pusat, antara Kementerian Tenaga Kerja dan kementerian-kementerian terkait demi implementasi yang efektif, dan juga antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah dan para pelaku yang relevan (Pemerintah Kabupaten dan DPRD). …namun dapat Penyesuaian berdasar formula, jika diterapkan, akan membuat peningkatan upah minimum membawa dampak yang akan datang menjadi lebih pasti dan mudah diperkirakan, dan lebih erat mencerminkan positif terhadap pasar perkembangan pasar tenaga kerja, dengan penyesuaian yang lebih baik terhadap kejutan. tenaga kerja Peningkatan tata kelola dan penegakan kebijakan pemantauan yang lebih ketat juga akan meningkatkan kepatuhan kepada sistem tersebut. Kalau diterapkan dengan benar, reformasi ini memiliki potensi untuk meningkatkan kepastian, kesederhanaan dan transparansi dalam penetapan upah minimum, mendukung keadilan dan menyeimbangkan tarik-menarik (trade off) dalam penetapan upah minimum, yang merupakan faktor harga yang sangat penting bagi banyak pekerja dan dunia usaha, baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung melalui dampaknya terhadap penetapan upah lintas ekonomi secara luas. d. Langkah-langkah untuk menurunkan inflasi Pembatasan kuantitatif Penurunan pajak barang mewah bagi sejumlah produk, seperti yang disinggung di atas, dan impor pada sejumlah juga penghapusan PPN bagi buku-buku pelajaran dan keagamaan, akan menurunkan harga bahan pangan produk-produk tersebut, namun kecilnya porsi bagian mereka pada indeks harga konsumen digantikan dengan membatasi dampak aturan itu terhadap tingkat harga yang lebih umum. Sebaliknya, mekanisme pembatasan perdagangan yang ditetapkan pada tahun 2012 membawa dampak yang sangat berdasarkan harga besar terhadap inflasi bahan pangan pada paruh pertama tahun 2013, sebelum mulai turun sebagian. Sebagai bagian dari paket kebijakan, langkah-langkah tambahan sedang diambil untuk menggeser pembatasan jumlah impor ke pengelolaan selisih antara harga dalam dan luar negeri untuk daging sapi dan produk-produk hortikultura, yang akan meningkatkan transparansi dan agak menurunkan risiko peningkatan harga yang tajam karena kelangkaan barang impor. Paska pengumuman paket kebijakan tersebut juga terdapat sejumlah langkah- langkah tambahan untuk melonggarkan pembatasan perdagangan, terutama bagi kacang kedelai, dengan penundaan izin impor dan penghapusan (sementara) dari tarif 5 persen. Namun, dengan adanya tantangan-tantangan dalam koordinasi kebijakan lintas kelembagaan, masih harus terus dilihat apakah posisi perubahan kebijakan impor produk-produk tersebut dapat diterapkan secara efektif. 9Lihat Triwulanan edisi bulan Desember 2012 tentang rincian sistem dan negosiasi upah minimum yang lalu. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 29 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia e. Menilai paket kebijakan Pencapaian tanggapan Tidak ada paket kebijakan optimal yang sudah siap pakai dalam menanggapi memburuknya kebijakan yang optimal kondisi pasar dan pergeseran kondisi ekonomi. Sebaliknya, para pengambil kebijakan di terhadap perubahan Indonesia menghadapi tantangan yang rumit, walau terdapat sejumlah aspek-aspek yang kondisi ekonomi, dan serupa dengan negara-negara ekonomi berkembang lainnya, seperti Brasil dan India (yang ketika menghadapi mana kondisi pendanaan eksternalnya juga mengetat, dan pertumbuhan telah melambat). pasar yang bergejolak, Sementara terdapat banyak potensi kebijakan , jangan dilupakan bahwa terdapat biaya merupakan hal yang implementasi dan potensi trade off yang harus dipertimbangkan. Sebagai contoh, menjaga rumit kuatnya pertumbuhan ketenagakerjaan dan upah merupakan tujuan yang diinginkan, namun penerapan langkah-langkah untuk mendukung ketenagakerjaan yang memberi stimulasi ke ekonomi dapat berlawanan dengan moderasi pada pertumbuhan permintaan secara keseluruhan yang mungkin dibutuhkan untuk mengendalikan defisit neraca berjalan. Intervensi kebijakan juga dapat merintangi penyesuaian-penyesuaian lainnya, seperti dalam harga relatif utama, yang dapat membantu menjaga keseimbangan dalam dan luar negeri, dan membawa tambahan ketidakpastian bagi lingkungan peraturan perundangan. Paket kebijakan Sejalan dengan tantangan-tantangan yang kini dihadapi oleh ekonomi Indonesia, kebijakan- Pemerintah tampaknya kebijakan yang diumumkan oleh Pemerintah tampaknya memiliki fokus yang kuat pada memiliki dampak tingkat mikro. Seperti biasanya, sifat dan pemilihan waktu implementasi aturan-aturan yang positif yang luas diumumkan itu sangatlah penting dalam menentukan tingkat efektivitasnya dalam terhadap ekonomi dan pencapaian sasaran-sasarannya. Misalnya, peraturan yang berhubungan dengan daftar negatif dapat dibangun lebih masih perlu diselesaikan kira-kira enam minggu setelah paket ini diumumkan. Paket lanjut… kebijakan itu juga harus dievaluasi dari sudut pandang strategi Indonesia yang lebih luas untuk meningkatkan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pembangunan berkelanjutan pada jangka menengah. Dalam konteks ini, paket kebijakan itu harus dilihat sebagai bagian dari proses reformasi dan implementasi kebijakan yang berjalan, yang dapat dikembangkan lebih lanjut. …dengan tambahan Dengan adanya tekanan terhadap neraca eksternal Indonesia dan kebutuhan konsekuensinya “hasil cepat” di bidang untuk meningkatkan daya saing, tambahan “hasil cepat (quick wins)” di bidang perdagangan perdagangan… dapat diselidiki, terutama dalam fasilitasi perdagangan, misalnya dengan meningkatkan manajemen risiko dan prosedur perizinan kepabeanan untuk mengurangi dwell time (waktu tunggu) (lihat pada Bagian berikut). …dan menjaga Bertitik tolak pada paket kebijakan bulan Agustus dalam bidang kebijakan fiskal, suatu sinyal kemajuan dalam kebijakan yang sangat positif, yang dapat membantu kualitas belanja secara keseluruhan, reformasi sektor fiskal berupa kemajuan dalam reformasi subsidi energi lanjutan, seperti penyesuaian menuju mekanisme penyesuaian harga BBM yang lebih transparan dan mudah diramalkan, bersama- sama dengan pendalaman dan perluasan kerangka perlindungan sosial. Selain itu, Pemerintah dapat secara proaktif meningkatkan kesiapannya untuk menghadapi perlambatan pertumbuhan dengan menempatkan mekanisme pemantauan dan tanggapan yang sistematis untuk memberikan perlindungan sosial sesuai dengan sasaran dan secara efektif. Penting untuk memastikan bahwa posisi fiskal seperti yang diuraikan dalam anggaran tahun 2014 masih dalam pembahasan, tetap berhati-hati dan terkoordinasi dengan kebijakan moneter. Dorongan yang kuat pada pengaturan penerimaan dapat mendukung hal itu dengan membatasi kebutuhan pendanaan hutang, mengkonsolidasikan penguatan dalam neraca pemerintah yang telah dicapai oleh Indonesia, sementara peningkatan lebih jauh dalam pelaksanaan anggaran dapat membantu mendukung pertumbuhan. Sementara beberapa langkah tersebut tampak seperti langkah-langkah jangka panjang, mereka dapat membawa dampak positif jangka pendek dengan memberi sinyal tentang arah kebijakan dan lintasan pertumbuhan Indonesia. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 30 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 2. Meningkatkan konektivitas melalui peningkatan kinerja pelabuhan Peningkatan Seperti ditekankan pada Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi konektivitas Indonesia (MP3EI), buruknya konektivitas telah diketahui sebagai salah satu kendala utama internasional, seperti bagi pertumbuhan di Indonesia, yang merintangi agenda pembangunan. Kendala kapasitas dengan menurunkan dalam infrastruktur konektivitas dan kelemahan-kelemahan dalam pengaturan kelembagaan waktu tinggal peti masih terus membawa pengaruh buruk terhadap kinerja logistik di Indonesia, mendorong kemas (dwell time) naiknya biaya dan menurunkan daya saing ekspor. Buruknya konektivitas juga merintangi pada pelabuhan- upaya-upaya untuk menarik investasi dalam kegiatan proses manufaktur, dengan semakin pelabuhan utama tingginya biaya transportasi bahan-bahan yang diimpor. seperti Tanjung Priok, dapat berperan besar Dengan demikian upaya-upaya untuk meningkatkan kinerja konektivitas internasional untuk mendukung Indonesia memiliki peran yang penting dalam meningkatkan daya saing ekspor Indonesia ekspor dan investasi… dan daya tariknya bagi investasi jangka panjang, keduanya yang merupakan bidang kebijakan yang sedang mendapat fokus, dalam kaitannya dengan memburuknya neraca eksternal Indonesia yang belakangan terjadi. Bagian ini mengamati salah satu kuncinya, yaitu tantangan-tantangan praktis dalam meningkatkan konektivitas internasional Indonesia – menurunkan waktu tinggal peti kemas (dwell time) pada pelabuhan peti kemas internasional utama Indonesia, pelabuhan Tanjung Priok. …dalam Peningkatan dalam konektivitas internasional dapat mendukung kemampuan perusahaan- meningkatkan daya perusahaan Indonesia untuk bergerak naik pada mata rantai pasokan. Potensi pertumbuhan saing jangka panjang Indonesia yang besar dalam sektor manufaktur dan perdagangan internasional telah banyak sektor manufaktur diketahui, namun realisasi potensi tersebut menghadapi sejumlah tantangan. Sebagian besar Indonesia dengan perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia kini bergerak dalam bidang pemrosesan dasar, yang meningkatkan rantai merupakan peringkat yang rendah dalam rantai pasokan regional dan global. Agar industri nilai tambah… Indonesia dapat bergerak naik pada rantai pasokan, sehingga dapat meningkatkan nilai tambah hasil produksinya dan menciptakan pekerjaan-pekerjaan yang lebih berkualitas, akan membutuhkan berbagai peningkatan kebijakan dan infrastruktur, termasuk reformasi yang signifikan terhadap lingkungan usaha, peraturan tenaga kerja, akses kepada pendanaan, inovasi dan konektivitas yang lebih baik. Tidak semua faktor-faktor tersebut dapat dilakukan dengan seketika. Namun dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah, perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia dapat memetik manfaat yang signifikan dari keterbukaan akses terhadap bahan masukan (input) internasional yang berkualitas pada tingkat harga pasar dunia. …dan memfasilitasi Konektivitas internasional yang lebih baik juga dapat membantu mendorong peningkatan pertumbuhan produktivitas dan pertumbuhan jangka panjang. Secara keseluruhan, penurunan unit biaya produktivitas melalui transportasi dan teknologi informasi dapat menghemat biaya pengelolaan kegiatan jarak jauh. transfer teknologi Sebagai akibatnya, perusahaan-perusahaan manufaktur multi-nasional telah membagi-bagi melalui akses terhadap rantai pasokannya dan melaksanakan tahapan-tahapan produksi pada negara-negara yang impor masukan (input) berlainan, berdasarkan kepada kekayaan alam dan keunggulan komparatifnya. Pada jangka panjang, keterlibatan di dalam jaringan produksi global ini akan memfasilitasi transfer teknologi, yang pada gilirannya akan mendorong peningkatan produktivitas dan pertumbuhan, dan juga kepada peningkatan permintaan bagi input domestik.10 Dengan demikian, penjaminan bahwa proses impor barang-barang dapat dilakukan seefisien mungkin merupakan hal yang sangat penting bagi pembangunan jangka panjang Indonesia. a. Peningkatan kinerja pelabuhan: kunci untuk membuka perdagangan Masalah fasilitasi Saat ini Indonesia memiliki tingkat perbandingan yang buruk terhadap negara-negara perdagangan dan berkembang Asia lainnya dalam pengukuran transportasi dan logistik, seperti biaya, efisiensi transportasi dan kualitas, termasuk infrastruktur, bea cukai dan kompetensi industri logistik. (Gambar merupakan beberapa 28). Rendahnya investasi pada infrastruktur jalan dan pelabuhan berkontribusi kepada 10 Gambaran tentang statistik nilai tambah perdagangan yang menunjukkan pentingnya impor bahan setengah jadi bagi ekspor manufaktur Indonesia, lihat pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 31 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia kendala terbesar bagi kritisnya masalah kemacetan dan dengan sendirinya menyebabkan buruknya kinerja logistik pelaku perdagangan di di Indonesia. sementara peningkatan infrastruktur fisik memang merupakan hal yang sangat Indonesia penting, hal itu merupakan upaya jangka panjang, sehingga menjadikan peningkatan kinerja sebagai upaya jangka pendek yang utama untuk meringankan beban kapasitas. Hal ini merupakan hal yang dijumpai pada pelabuhan Tanjung Priok, gerbang perdagangan utama di Indonesia. Pelabuhan itu menangani lebih dari dua per tiga perdagangan internasional Indonesia. Tanjung Priok telah mencapai kapasitas maksimum sejak lama, dan karena terminal peti kemas internasional yang baru akan siap beroperasi pada tahun 2018, kini Pemerintah memfokuskan kepada langkah-langkah peningkatan efisiensi pelabuhan tersebut. Gambar 28: Indonesia tertinggal dari negara Asia lain Gambar 29: …dan waktu tinggal peti kemas di pelabuhan dalam biaya dan kecepatan logistik… terpenting, Tanjung Priok, terus meningkat (waktu pemenuhan impor, hari dan biaya peti kemas, dolar AS) (rata-rata waktu tinggal peti kemas impor, hari) Lead time for imports for ports/airports, median case (days) (LHS) 10.5 Avg charge (US$/km) to import 40-foot container (RHS) 8 7.3 8 9.5 6.4 5.9 5.7 6 5.3 6 8.5 3.6 3.4 4 3.4 4 7.5 2.9 2 2 6.5 5.5 0 0 4.5 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Sumber: Indikator Kinerja Logistik 2012, Bank Dunia Sumber: Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) Kinerja pelabuhan Sebagai gerbang ke pasar dunia, pelabuhan-pelabuhan merupakan titik kunci dan pertukaran merupakan salah satu utama bagi arus pengiriman dalam dan luar negeri. Pelabuhan merupakan tempat di mana bidang terkritis dalam terjadi paling banyak transaksi dan dengan demikian, juga merupakan tempat paling banyak reformasi fasilitasi terjadinya perlambatan. Pada koridor perdagangan, setidaknya 50 persen perlambatan terjadi perdagangan… pada pelabuhan tempat masuknya barang. …dengan waktu Waktu tinggal peti kemas(dwell time) didefinisikan sebagai waktu yang dihabiskan oleh barang tinggal peti kemas muatan atau kargo di dalam batas pelabuhan, dari saat kargo dibongkar dari kapal dan sebagai unsur kinerja disimpan di darat hingga saat kargo itu meninggalkan pelabuhan melalui rel kereta maupun pelabuhan yang sangat jalan darat. Pemangkasan waktu tinggal peti kemas akan memungkinkan pelabuhan untuk penting meningkatkan volume, pendapatan dan mendorong daya saing dibanding pelabuhan- pelabuhan serupa di suatu negara atau suatu wilayah. Angka waktu tinggal peti kemas ini umumnya digunakan untuk menarik jalur dan perusahaan pelayaran dan lalu lintas pengiriman barang ke suatu pelabuhan, sehingga memberikan insentif yang kuat kepada pihak otoritas pelabuhan dan operator terminal peti kemas untuk meningkatkan indikator kinerja ini. Lamanya dwell time Bagi barang-barang yang merupakan bahan setengah jadi yang akan diproses lebih lanjut di meningkatkan biaya dalam suatu mata rantai pasokan, pengiriman yang tepat waktu merupakan hal yang perdagangan secara berharga. Ketidakandalan dan ketidakpastian membawa biaya yang dapat merintangi keseluruhan, yang investasi, meningkatkan persediaan dan biaya penyimpanannya, mengurangi skala ekspansi mempengaruhi perusahaan dan menghalangi dimulainya suatu prakarsa ekspor baru. Perlambatan juga kegiatan produktif, membawa pengaruh yang dramatis bagi kapasitas terminal, kinerja dan kebutuhan investasi, terutama industri yang yang pada gilirannya meningkatkan biaya dan mengakibatkan ketidakpastian yang lebih besar, berorientasi ekspor dan sehingga membentuk suatu lingkaran setan. Akhirnya, bagi pelabuhan-pelabuhan yang ekspor kembali terletak pada daerah perkotaan yang padat, sangatlah penting untuk menjaga arus barang- O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 32 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia barang dan lalu lintas, karena terjadinya kemacetan dan peningkatan tajam dalam waktu tinggal peti kemas akan membawa dampak yang sangat mengganggu bagi perdagangan dan lingkungan pelabuhan-kota. Waktu tinggal peti Fokus pada peningkatan waktu tinggal peti kemas peti kemas bagi impor (yaitu peti kemas kemasWaktu tinggal yang masuk ke suatu negara) umumnya sesuai bagi negara-negara berkembang seperti peti kemas impor Indonesia. Bagi banyak negara volume ekspor secara agregat biasanya lebih rendah dibanding sangatlah penting bagi impor, namun yang lebih penting, waktu tinggal peti kemas untuk ekspor yang menuju ke kinerja pelabuhan negara lain umumnya rendah (rata-rata satu hingga dua hari). Impor melibatkan hampir karena biaya dan seluruh pengawasan perbatasan, dan menyebabkan beban biaya dan waktu yang lebih tinggi penundaan waktu dibanding ekspor. Dalam hal manapun, perdagangan kedua arah itu menggunakan pemberi seringkali lebih besar jasa yang sama, sehingga peningkatan kualitas layanan-layanan tersebut akan membawa pada impor dibanding manfaat bagi seluruh pelaku perdagangan. ekspor b. Melawan dibawah tekanan untuk tetap melaju Waktu tinggal peti Menurut perkiraan yang terbaru, rata-rata waktu tinggal peti kemas impor di Tanjung Priok kemas di Tanjung telah meningkat hampir dua kali lipat dari 5,2 hari pada bulan Januari 2011 menjadi 10,1 hari Priok telah meningkat pada bulan Agustus 2013 (Gambar 29). Untuk memahami faktor-faktor di belakang semakin hampir dua kali lipat cepatnya penambahan waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk menyelesaikan dan melepaskan peti- dalam dua tahun peti kemas dari pelabuhan, komponen-komponen waktu tinggal peti kemas perlu dicermati. terakhir Komponen waktu tinggal peti kemas impor dapat didibagi menjadi tiga tahapan yang berbeda yang terkait dengan proses-proses yang berlainan, tanggung jawab dan keterkaitan badan yang berbeda (Gambar 30). Komponen hulu terdiri dari waktu antara tibanya kapal dan penyerahan surat Pemberitahuan Impor Barang (PIB) kepada Bea Cukai. Bagian pengurusan kepabeanan merujuk pada waktu dari penyerahan surat PIB hingga penerimaan izin. Komponen hilir adalah waktu dari penerimaan izin Bea Cukai hingga meninggalkan lokasi pelabuhan, dalam hal ini, gerbang Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT). Tahapan proses impor diuraikan pada Gambar 31. Gambar 30: Komponen waktu tinggal peti kemas dan pemangku kepentingan utama Dwell Time CUSTOMS UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM Components CLEARANCE Key Submission of Import Customs Ship Arrival Exit Milestones Declaration Clearance  Shipping Line and agents  Consignees/Freight  Consignees and their  Consignees/Freight Forwarder/Broker Freight Forwarder Forwarder/Broker  Customs  Customs Key  Port Authority  Other Border Control  Port Terminal Stakeholders  Port Terminal Agencies  Truckers or rail operators  Customs  Banks  Other Border Control Agencies Sumber: Bank Dunia O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 33 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 31: Proses impor di Tanjung Priok Sumber: Bank Dunia c. Apa saja tantangan utamanya? Keterlambatan utama Bertentangan dengan persepsi yang umum akan buruknya kinerja bagian Perizinan waktu tinggal peti Kepabeanan dan penyalahgunaan fasilitas pelabuhan oleh para importir, penelitian terbaru kemas banyak terjadi menunjukkan bahwa secara rata-rata 58 persen waktu tinggal peti kemas dihabiskan pada pada tahapan hulu… tahapan hulu (pra-Bea Cukai) (Gambar 32). Walau terdapat banyak sumber perlambatan pada sepanjang proses impor, penempatan fokus terhadap peningkatan efisiensi pada komponen hulu dapat membawa dampak yang signifikan terhadap keseluruhan rata-rata waktu tinggal peti kemas di Tanjung Priok. Sumber-sumber utama perlambatan pada komponen hulu adalah ketidakefisienan dari sistem 24/7, keterlambatan dalam penyerahan surat PIB, dan rendahnya kinerja sistem Indonesian National Single Window (INSW). …yang terkait dengan Sementara pelabuhan umumnya beroperasi “24/7” (yaitu layanan pelabuhan, termasuk bea kelemahan pada sistem cukai, bank, terminal, pengemudi truk, angkutan barang, broker pabean dan pergudangan, 24/7… beroperasi di luar jam kerja normal dan pada akhir pekan), pada kenyataannya ketidaksesuaian waktu memperpanjang waktu tinggal peti kemas hulu. Tingginya persentase kapal yang tiba pada hari Sabtu dan Minggu, mencapai rata-rata 38 persen dari jumlah peti kemas yang tiba dalam satu minggu (Senin hingga Minggu). Sebagian besar perusahaan pengangkut barang, pelayaran dan bank tidak beroperasi pada akhir pekan atau di luar jam kerja, sehingga menunda penyerahan surat PIB hingga hari Senin berikutnya, dan memperlambat dimulainya proses perizinan. Dengan demikian, walau jumlah peti kemas yang tiba pada akhir pekan lebih tinggi dibanding hari-hari kerja biasa, jumlah penyerahan PIB per hari lebih rendah pada hari-hari di akhir pekan (Gambar 33). Layanan kepabeanan juga hanya tersedia bila diminta pada akhir pekan atau setelah jam kerja, yang menambahkan jumlah langkah yang dibutuhkan bila importir hendak mengeluarkan barang pada akhir pekan. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 34 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 32: Tahap hulu menjadi tantangan utama bagi Gambar 33: Ketidaksesuaian antara kedatangan peti keseluruhan waktu tinggal peti kemas kemas dan PIB menunjukkan tantangan sistem 24/7 (waktu tinggal peti kemas, hari) (persentase, hari) Upstream Customs Clearance Downstream Containers Import Declaration Submissions 7 25 22 6 20 1.9 19 19 1.2 20 1.1 1.2 5 18 1.2 15 13 18 4 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.1 16 10 13 13 3 1.1 11 7 11 2 5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.3 0 2.5 1 0 0 October July August January February 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 Catatan: Data rinci dwell time hanya tersedia hingga Februari 2012 Sumber: JICT dan Ditjen Bea Cukai, Mei 2012 Sumber: JICT dan Ditjen Bea Cukai …keterlambatan yang Keterlambatan dalam penyerahan PIB dapat ditelusuri kembali ke penundaan penyerahan signifikan dalam manifest/surat muatan kepada Bea Cukai dari perusahaan pelayaran yang datang melalui penyerahan surat angkut lanjut (trans-shipment) di Singapura atau Malaysia. Pengiriman-pengiriman tersebut PIB… kadangkala hanya memiliki beberapa jam untuk mengkonsolidasikan surat muatannya, sehingga informasi itu disampaikan hanya beberapa jam sebelum sebuah kapal berlabuh di Tanjung Priok dan kadang-kadang bahkan setelah kapal telah bersandar. Informasi surat muatan dibutuhkan untuk menyerahkan PIB, dengan demikian penundaan dalam mendapatkan informasi itu berdampak kepada waktu dimulainya proses perizinan Bea dan Cukai. …rendahnya Berdasarkan informasi importir, jenis barang yang diimpor, negara asal, profil perpajakan penggunaan jalur perusahaan dan faktor-faktor lainnya, Bea Cukai menetapkan salah satu dari lima golongan risiko prioritas… risiko yang tersedia (jalur hijau, kuning dan merah, dan dua golongan tambahan bagi importir yang telah disetujui terlebih dahulu). Bergantung pada jalur risiko yang diberikan, importir akan menerima perlakuan yang berbeda untuk pemberian izin Kepabeanan, yang menentukan waktu yang dibutuhkan bagi barang untuk tinggal di pelabuhan. Jalur prioritas khusus, MITA Prioritas, memiliki waktu tinggal peti kemas yang relatif singkat (rata-rata selama 4 hari) namun jalur ini hanya mencakup 16 persen dari seluruh jumlah peti kemas dan merupakan kelompok yang kecil dengan anggota sebanyak 105 importir. Importir dengan jalur ini memiliki fasilitas penangguhan pembayaran bea masuk dan cukai, dan mereka tidak perlu menyerahkan nomor surat muatan dalam PIB, sehingga PIB dapat diserahkan secara lebih cepat dibanding jalur-jalur lainnya. …dan lemahnya INSW terbatas hanya dalam ruang lingkup pemberitahuan dan informasi status proses pada kinerja sistem badan-badan instantsi pemerintah yang terkait. Perizinan kepabeanan dan persyaratan Pelayanan Satu Atap dokumen perbatasan lainnya masih berfungsi di dalam sistem-sistem yang terpisah dan Indonesia ( Indonesian belum terpadu ke dalam suatu proses yang menyatu. Pada sistem Pelayanan Satu Atap National Single (National Single Windows) yang ideal dan berfungsi dengan baik, pengguna akan Window, INSW) menyerahkan informasi yang dibutuhkan oleh sejumlah instansi pemerintah hanya satu kali saja, dengan satu kali masuk ke sistem (sign-on), termasuk untuk pembayaran. Sistem seperti itu mengurangi interaksi fisik dan transaksi yang menggunakan kertas. Namun saat ini proses pembayaran harus dilakukan secara terpisah bagi seluruh badan-badan pemerintah dan lembaga-lembaga pelabuhan, termasuk pembayaran bea impor, pajak-pajak, biaya instansi, biaya operator terminal dan lainnya. Selain itu, Badan Karantina tidak memiliki akses terhadap informasi kedatangan kapal. Diperkirakan bahwa sekitar 15 persen dari total peti O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 35 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia kemas impor memerlukan dokumen dan persetujuan dari karantina. Sebagian impor juga memerlukan izin masuk dan izin bongkar barang sehingga, tanpa adanya informasi tentang kedatangan kapal lebih awal, pekerjaan yang dilakukan oleh Badan Karantina akan sangat bergantung kepada pihak importir. d. Sejumlah langkah-langkah penting telah diambil untuk mengatasi keadaan tersebut… Walau rata-rata waktu Sejumlah upaya telah ditetapkan untuk mengatasi peningkatan waktu tinggal peti kemas. tinggal peti kemas Sebagai contoh, pembayaran tunai pada lokasi terminal peti kemas telah dihapuskan dan meningkat dibanding diganti dengan transaksi ATM. Walau belum optimal, pemangkasan transaksi tunai adalah tahun sebelumnya, langkah awal dalam menurunkan perlambatan pada komponen hilir. Pengumuman kurs operator terminal peti tukar telah digeser dari hari Senin ke Rabu, yang memungkinkan importir untuk kemas dan Pemerintah menyerahkan PIB mereka sebelum akhir pekan dengan informasi yang paling terkini. mencatat sejumlah Pengumuman kurs tukar yang sebelumnya dilakukan pada hari Senin memberikan alasan lain keberhasilan dalam bagi penundaan penyampaian PIB. mengatasi keadaan Sistem i-CaRe (integrated cargo release) yang baru diluncurkan di Tanjung Priok untuk mengintegrasikan seluruh layanan pada komponen hilir, bertujuan untuk menghapus interaksi tatap muka antara pengemudi truk dan petugas Bea Cukai di pintu gerbang. Proyek percontohan diluncurkan pada TPK Koja pada bulan November 2012 dan juga dipadukan dengan INSW. Pemerintah juga telah menetapkan Tempat Pemeriksaan Fisik Terpadu (TPFT), yang memungkinkan Bea Cukai, Karantina dan BPOM untuk melakukan pemeriksaan pada waktu yang bersamaan, sehingga memangkas pergerakan peti kemas dan memungkinkan waktu pemeriksan fisik yang lebih cepat pada jalur kuning dan merah. TPFT dikembangkan bersama-sama dengan Pelindo II (BUMN yang beroperasi di Tanjung Priok) dan seluruh instansi pemerintahan, dan mulai beroperasi sejak bulan Februari 2013. Prakarsa ini akan membantu menurunkan rata-rata waktu tinggal peti kemas bagi peti-peti kemas yang masuk ke jalur kuning dan merah. e. …dan sejumlah upaya tindakan lebih lanjut telah diidentifikasi Reformasi peraturan Setelah langkah-langkah di atas, penurunan waktu tinggal peti kemas lebih lanjut dan perbaikan membutuhkan kerja sama dari seluruh pemangku kepentingan, termasuk Bea Cukai, Pelindo prosedur lebih lanjut II, operator terminal peti kemas, asosiasi importir, bank dan instansi pemerintah lainnya dapat menurunkan yang berada di pelabuhan. Berbagai pembicaraan pada tingkat teknis dan politis, dan waktu proses di hulu… konsultasi dengan pihak akademis dan mitra pembangunan telah dilakukan untuk menentukan upaya-upaya tambahan yang tersedia yang dapat menurunkan waktu tinggal peti kemas komponen hulu. …termasuk Menetapkan kriteria yang jelas, pantas dan transparan bagi para importir untuk dapat masuk meningkatkan jumlah ke dalam jalur MITA Prioritas, melalui konsultasi dengan para pemangku kepentingan importir dalam jalur utama, akan membantu menurunkan rata-rata waktu tinggal peti kemas. Penilaian oleh khusus MITA Ditjen Bea Cukai akan pilihan peningkatan jumlah importir MITA Prioritas akan menjadi Prioritas… langkah yang penting untuk memfasilitasi importir-importir yang memenuhi syarat untuk menggunakan jalur kilat ini. …memberikan Penggunaan prosedur yang lebih fleksibel yang dapat berlangsung secara paralel, dan bukan kesempatan lebih melalui langkah-langkah berurutan, secara potensial dapat membantu menurunkan waktu di banyak untuk komponen hulu (pra-kepabeanan). Sebagai contoh, pembayaran dapat diperkenankan melakukan proses sebelum proses kepabeanan, namun setelah penyerahan PIB. Saat ini importir harus paralel dalam membayar seluruh bea masuk dan pajak kepada Bea Cukai sebelum memulai proses komponen kepabeanan. Selain pemberlakuanproses paralel, Bea Cukai dapat mempertimbangkan Kepabeanan… pemberian pengecualian kepada operator resmi, seperti importir atau perusahaan pengangkutan kargo yang besar dan terpercaya, untuk memiliki rekening langsung dengan Bea Cukai, yang memungkinkan penangguhan pembayaran atau pendebitan langsung. Proses O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 36 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia paralel yang dapat memungkinkan dimulainya proses kepabeanan pada saat bersamaan, menyamakan informasi akan isi peti kemas akan membantu menurunkan jumlah langkah- langkah yang ada pada komponen hulu. …yang memberikan Upaya-upaya lain oleh Ditjen Bea Cukai dan operator terminal untuk mendorong insentif bagi penyerahan PIB secepat mungkin oleh importir dan perusahaan pengiriman barang juga penyerahan PIB sedini dapat membantu mengurangi waktu pemrosesan. Sosialisasi kepada para pengguna dibantu mungkin… dengan pemberian insentif penyerahan dini dapat mendorong para importir untuk memulai proses pra-kepabeanan dengan lebih awal. Insentif untuk mendorong penyerahan PIB sedini mungkin dapat berupa potongan pajak, potongan bea dan potongan biaya terminal peti kemas. Insentif tersebut dapat mengimbangi biaya tambahan importir dan perusahaan pengiriman yang ditimbulkan dari beroperasi pada akhir pekan, ketika banyak peti kemas tiba. Sebaliknya, Ditjen Bea Cukai dapat melakukan evaluasi dan pencatatan perusahan pengiriamn kargo untuk mengidentifikasi dan memberi sangsi kepada perusahaan- perusahaan yang menunda penyerahan PIB. Pada akhirnya, pemberian layanan 24/7 dapat ditingkatkan dengan memperkenalkan perjanjian tingkat layanan (service-level agreement) antar operator terminal dan perusahaan pelayaran, dan juga bagi badan-badan pemerintah untuk memfasilitasi operasi-operasi akhir pekan. … dan semakin Peningkatan INSW secara berkelanjutan dibutuhkan agar dapat mencapai potensinya dalam memperkuat INSW meningkatkan efisiensi proses impor. Sebagai langkah sementara, layanan satu atap dapat dan meluncurkan diprioritaskan, yang mana berbagai lembaga akan memiliki akses terhadap seluruh informasi, layanan satu atap termasuk Karantina, Bea Cukai dan BPOM. Penggunaan pembayaran tunggal bagi seluruh proses impor, termasuk seluruh biaya dari setiap badan pemerintahan yang terkait, pajak dan bea masuk juga biaya terminal dapat membawa dampak positif yang besar. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 37 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia C. Indonesia tahun 2014 dan selanjutnya: Tinjauan pilihan 1. Memperkirakan stok aset tetap infrastruktur di Indonesia Rendahnya investasi di Selama bertahun-tahun investasi infrastruktur di Indonesia hanya mencapai sekitar 3 hingga Indonesia telah 4 persen dari PDB, jauh di bawah tingkat investasi di atas 7 persen yang tercatat sebelum berlangsung lebih dari Krisis Asia tahun 1997/98 dan lebih rendah dibanding negara-negara tetangga seperti China, satu dekade… Thailand dan Vietnam, yang mencatat angka di atas 7 persen dari PDB.11 Kontribusi Pemerintah terhadap investasi infrastruktur telah meningkat tajam secara keseluruhan, didorong oleh pemerintah daerah, di tengah penurunan tajam investasi sektor swasta, dan perlambatan investasi oleh BUMN, pada beberapa tahun terakhir. Akan tetapi, walau Pemerintahberkomitmen untuk meningkatkan layanan dan belanja infrastruktur, tingkat investasi infrastruktur secara keseluruhan masih belum kembali ke tingkat yang tercatat sebelum tahun 1997/98 dan tidak mampu mengejar peningkatan kebutuhan. …dengan implikasi Menggunakan data baru tentang investasi infrastruktur yang dikumpulkan oleh Bank Dunia, ekonomi yang patut dan didasarkan hasil analisis data-data yang disajikan pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret diteliti lebih lanjut 2013, bagian ini meneliti lebih lanjut masalah rendahnya investasi infrastruktur di Indonesia dan juga implikasinya terhadap pertumbuhan. Secara khusus, bagian ini mencoba menjawab dua pertanyaan ini: bagaimana tingkat investasi mempengaruhi akumulasi stok aset infrastruktur yang ada; dan bagaimana jika akumulasi aset infrastruktur yang lebih cepat mempengaruhi lintasan pertumbuhan Indonesia akhir-akhir ini? 11 Lihat Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013 untuk perkiraan terkini investasi infrastruktur di Indonesia dan untuk lingkup regional lihat Asian Development Bank; World Bank; Japan Bank for International Cooperation (2005) Connecting East Asia: A New Framework for Infrastructure. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 38 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Keterbatasan data Dalam analisis yang disajikan di bawah ini, infrastruktur diasumsikan mencakup infrastruktur adalah kendala utama energi, jalan, jembatan, pelabuhan, irigasi dan telekomunikasi. Terbatasnya ketersediaan dan dalam analisis stok kurangnya data yang menyeluruh tentang investasi, dan stok aset infrastrukturmerupakan aset infrastruktur tantangan dalam melakukan analisis mendalam untuk menjawab kedua pertanyaan di atas. Indonesia yang perlu Kendala-kendala data tersebut, seperti diuraikan pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013, ditangani untuk mengindikasikan bahwa penghitungan-perhitungan dalam bagian ini harus diperlakukan mendukung secara hati-hati. Namun temuan-temuan yang disajikan di bawah bertujuan untuk pengambilan memberikan landasan bagi analisis yang lebih baik di tingkat nasional, daerah dan sektoral keputusan berdasar dan untuk mendorong pengumpulan dan analisis data lebih lanjut untuk memberikan data informasi bagi pengambilan keputusan berdasarkan data di Indonesia. a. Investasi infrastruktur terhadap PDB telah menurun sejak 1997/98 Tingkat investasi Menurut data Bank Dunia, Gambar 34: Tingkat investasi infrastruktur terhadap PDB infrastruktur Indonesia investasi infrastruktur di telah turun kecuali pada pemerintah daerah menurun dengan tajam Indonesia turun secara tajam (tingkat investasi nominal sebagai bagian dari PDB, persen) paska Krisis Asia tahun setelah tahun 1997/98 dan 10 1997/98… dalam beberapa tahun terakhir mulai stabil pada 8 Average (1995-97) Average (2008-11) kisaran 3 hingga 4 persen dari PDB (Gambar 37). 6 Sebaliknya, tingkat Pembentukan Modal Tetap 4 Bruto (termasuk konstruksi, 2 permesinan dan peralatan transportasi) telah pulih 0 sebagai bagian dari PDB, yang mencapai hingga 33 persen pada tahun 2012, melampaui tingkat yang sebelumnya tercatat sebelum krisis Asia. Pemulihan ini Sumber: Data investasi infrastruktur seperti terinci pada Kotak 5 pada Triwulanan edisi Maret 2013 dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia didorong oleh investasi dalam bidang konstruksi, yang terutama terlihat pada peningkatan jumlah gedung-gedung, perumahan dan pusat perbelanjaan. …dengan penurunan Seperti dirinci pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013, penurunan investasi infrastruktur yang bersifat luas dan (terhadap PDB) bersifat luas termasuk pemerintah, BUMN dan sektor swasta. Investasi lintas berbagai bidang, sektor swasta mencatat penurunan yang paling tajam, sebesar 2,1 persen dari PDB, dari rata- terutama sektor swasta rata 2,3 persen dari PDB selama tahun 1995-97 menjadi kurang 0,4 persen dari PDB pada tahun 2008-11. Penurunan tajam dalam investasi infrastruktur sektor swasta itu merupakan suatu keprihatinan tersendiri, dengan semakin meningkatnya fokus kepada Kemitraan Pemerintah-Swasta (KPS) untuk mendanai pembangunan infrastruktur Indonesia. Investasi BUMN juga turun sekitar 1,8 persen dari PDB. Jumlah investasi pemerintah (baik pusat maupun daerah) turun sebesar 0,9 persen dari rata-rata sebesar 3,3 persen dari PDB pada tahun 1995-1997 menjadi 2,4 persen dari PDB selama periode tahun 2008-11 (Gambar 37). Investasi infrastruktur Secara harga konstan (menggunakan deflator investasi neraca nasional), investasi infrastruktur Pemerintah, walau selama tahun 2008-11 berjumlah sekitar sepertiga lebih rendah dibanding tingkat investasinya turun terhadap PDB, pada tahun 1995-97. Namun rata-rata investasi infrastruktur tahunan pemerintah (pusat dan telah hampir pulih daerah) dalam harga konstan telah kembali ke tingkat tahun 1995-97 pada tahun 2008-11, secara riil, didorong sementara tingkat investasi BUMN dan sektor swasta masih tetap bertahan lebih rendah 30 oleh investasi persen dan 70 persen. Kontribusi sektor pemerintah terhadap investasi infrastruktur secara pemerintah daerah… keseluruhan telah meningkat, dipimpin oleh belanja pemerintah daerah untuk investasi jalan daerah. Semakin pentingnya investasi pemerintah daerah mencerminkan dampak desentralisasi fiskal pada tahun 2001 yang mana kewenangan belanja dan pembiayaan O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 39 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia diserahkan kepada pemerintah daerah. Sebelum desentralisasi, sekitar 80 persen dari investasi infrastruktur pemerintah berasal dari pemerintah pusat, dan pemerintah daerah hanya menyumbangkan 20 persen. Kini perbandingan ini telah bergeser menjadi 65 persen belanja berasal dari pemerintah daerah sementara 35 persen berasal dari pemerintah pusat. …dan juga Pemerintah menyadari tantangan-tantangan infrastruktur Indonesia dan telah bertekad untuk peningkatan besar mengatasinya melalui Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN) dan akhir-akhir ini pada Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia (MP3EI). belanja pemerintah Indonesia juga meluncurkan sejumlah prakarsa dan kebijakan, termasuk peningkatan pusat, yang anggaran yang signifikan bagi belanja modal dan penguatan kerangka kelembagaan dan mencerminkan kerangka peraturan perundangan bagi Kemitraan Pemerintah Swasta (KPS). Walau dengan komitmen Pemerintah peningkatan yang cukup besar dalam belanja modal secara nominal oleh pemerintah pusat, untuk meningkatkan kemajuan pelaksanaan investasi infrastruktur secara nyata di lapangan tetap berjalan lambat, layanan infrastruktur karena sejumlah tantangan koordinasi dan implementasi.12 b. Stok aset tetap infrastruktur Indonesia diperkirakan telah menurun dibandingkan total stok aset… Didorong oleh kuatnya Seperti telah disinggung di atas, pertumbuhan investasi Indonesia secara agregat telah pertumbuhan investasi meningkat tajam dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, dengan pertumbuhan pembentukan modal konstruksi, rasio stok tetap bruto (PMTB) meningkat rata-rata sebesar 8 persen secara riil pada periode tahun 2001 aset tetap terhadap dan 2011, secara umum didorong oleh konstruksi. Sebagai akibatnya, rasio keseluruhan stok PDB Indonesia telah aset tetap Indonesia terhadap PDB telah meningkat dari 1,7 kali PDB pada tahun 1995 meningkat pesat dalam menjadi 2,1 kali PDB pada tahun 2011. Apakah stok aset infrastruktur, yang merupakan beberapa tahun masukan (input) utama dalam produktivitas dan pertumbuhan, juga mengikuti tren terakhir keseluruhan ini? Bagian berikut akan membahas pertanyaan yang penting ini, termasuk kemungkinan implikasinya terhadap pertumbuhan output. Sebaliknya, perkiraan Metode Persediaan Perpetual (Perpetual Inventory Method, PIM), bersama-sama dengan asumsi- menunjukkan bahwa asumsi yang diuraikan pada Kotak 4, dapat digunakan untuk memperkirakan tingkat stok aset tetap persediaan modal infrastruktur Indonesia. Perkiraan awal menunjukkan bahwa penurunan riil infrastruktur sepertinya tingkat investasi infrastruktur ditambah dengan tingkat penyusutan (depresiasi) asetdan telah menurun pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pesat tampaknya telah mengakibatkan penurunan tingkat stok dibanding ukuran aset infrastruktur dibanding ukuran ekonomi secara keseluruhan. Sebagai contoh, setelah ekonomi (PDB) dan penyusutan, rata-rata pertumbuhan riil stok aset infrastruktur antara tahun 1996 dan 2011 total stok adalah 3 persen, di bawah rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB riil sebesar 4 persen (termasuk pada masa krisis tahun 1997/98). Laju pertumbuhan investasi infrastruktur juga tidak mengikuti cepatnya pertumbuhan riil total stok, dengan nilai rata-rata sebesar 4,4 persen selama periode tersebut (Gambar 43). Sebagai akibatnya, aset tetap infrastruktur Indonesia telah berangsur- angsur menyusut dari asumsi nilai permulaan sebesar 28 persen dari total aset tetap pada tahun 1995 menjadi 20 persen pada tahun 2011 (Gambar 36). Peningkatan dalam investasi infrastruktur publik beberapa tahun terakhir hanya dapat memperlambat laju penurunan relatif tersebut. Peningkatan dalam pertumbuhan keseluruhan investasi dalam dekade yang lalu didorong oleh sektor konstruksi non-infrastruktur. Sementara perkiraan-perkiraan ini memiliki berbagai keterbatasan, temuan-temuan umumnya kuat walaupun menggunakan asumsi-asumsi yang berlainan (lihat Kotak 4). 12Analisis lanjutan tentang tantangan implementasi pada sektor infrastruktur terdapat pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Juni 2012 IEQ. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 40 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 4: Catatan metodologi dalam menghitung stok aset infrastruktur di Indonesia Dalam analisis ini, aset infrastruktur Tabel 7: Tingkat pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur peka terhadap asumsi didefinisikan sebagai stok aset yang tingkat awal stok aset infrastruktur dan tingkat depresiasi (penyusutan) diinvestasikan oleh pemerintah umum, Tingkat stok aset infrastruktur Pertumbuhan BUMN dan sektor swasta ke dalam (bagian dari total stok aset, stok aset infrastruktur utama seperti sektor persen) infrastruktur transportasi, irigasi, air dan santitasi, energi (persen) (listrik) dan telekomunikasi. Definisi ini tidak Periode Periode Rata-rata Rata-rata 1996- menyertakan sarana dan peralatan militer dan 2011 awal akhir 2001-11 infrastruktur lainnya seperti rumah sakit, gedung-gedung pendidikan dan gedung- (1995) (2011) gedung pemerintah lainnya. Analisis ini Dasar (baseline): Tingkat awal 28 20 23 3,0 menggunakan indikator moneter (yaitu aliran stok aset infrastruktur: 28 persen; investasi infrastruktur dan nilai akumulasi) tingkat penyusutan: 5 persen untuk mengukur aset-aset infrastruktur Skenario I – Tingkat stok aset infrastruktur awal yang berbeda sebagai ganti indikator-indikator fisik (seperti A. +5% dari baseline 33 21 24 2,2 panjang jalan dalam km). Definisi ini B. -5% dari baseline 23 19 21 4,0 mengikuti data investasi infrastruktur yang Skenario II – Tingkat penyusutan yang berbeda dihimpun oleh Bank Dunia, seperti diuraikan pada Triwulanan edisi bulan Maret 2013. A. 3.5 persen 28 23 25 3,9 Suatu catatan penting mengenai pendekatan B. 6.1 persen 28 18 21 2,3 ini adalah keterkaitan antara investasi dan Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia layanan infrastruktur, yang merupakan hal yang penting bagi pertumbuhan dan hasil pembangunan, akan bergantung kepada kualitas dan efisiensi investasi. Metode Persediaan Perpetual (PIM) digunakan untuk memperkirakan jumlah stok aset infrastruktur, dengan memperkirakan nilai awal stok aset (tahun 1995 ketika data investasi infrastruktur tersedia) ditambahkan aliran investasi bruto dan dikurangi depresiasi (penyusutan). Berdasarkan pendekatan ini, tingkat stok aset infrastruktur Indonesia pada tahun 2011 diperkirakan berada pada 49 persen dari PDB, yang mendekati rata-rata perkiraan McKinsey Global Institute (2013) (selama 1992-2011, termasuk pembentukan aset pemeliharaan) untuk India sebesar 58 persen dari PDB (tahun 1992-2011) namun di bawah negara-negara berpenghasilan menengah maupun tinggi yang mencapai 70 persen dari PDB. Karena keterbatasan data, sejumlah asumsi telah dibuat untuk menyusun perkiraan stok aset. Pertama, mengikuti Van der Eng (2008) yang memperkirakan tingkat persediaan modal di Indonesia antara tahun 1950 dan 2007, nilai awal stok aset diasumsikan sekitar 1,7 kali PDB pada tahun 1995 dan nilai awal stok aset infrastruktur diasumsikan 28 persen dari total stok aset (walau nilai awal dari stok aset infrastruktur dan total menggunakan perkiraan Van der Eng, perkiraan tren dan tingkatan stok aset infrastruktur dan total untuk periode selanjutnya dalam analisis berbeda karena perbedaan metodologi). Kedua, tingkat penyusutan tahunan bagi aset-aset infrastruktur diasumsikan 5 persen, mengikuti asumsi Kementerian Keuangan untuk perhitungan akuntansi pajak untuk gedung dan alat transportasi (Kementerian Keuangan, 2009). Nilai ini merupakan titik tengah dibanding tingkat penyusutan tersirat sebesar 6,1 persen yang digunakan oleh Van der Eng untuk Indonesia, dan 3,5 persen yang digunakan oleh Arslanalp (2011) bagi negara-negara berpenghasilan menengah. Akhirnya, penting untuk dicatat bahwa penggunaan data investasi dapat menyebabkan penilaian yang terlalu rendah akan kontribusi belanja pemeliharaan dalam memperpanjang usia suatu aset. Namun hal ini juga dapat diimbangi dengan kemungkinan penilaian yang terlalu tinggi dari asumsi keterkaitan langsung (one-to-one) antara investasi infrastruktur dan akumulasi aset-aset produktif. Sebagai contoh, Pritchett (2000) menyatakan bahwa kurangnya hubungan antara (aliran) belanja investasi dan akumulasi aset-aset produktif, terutama di negara-negara berkembang, yang disebabkan oleh ketidakefisienan dan pemborosan. Perkiraan stok aset infrastruktur bersifat peka terhadap asumsi-asumsi tingkat awal stok aset infrastruktur dan tingkat depresiasi (Tabel 7). Sebagai contoh, jika stok aset infrastruktur awal tahun 1995 sebesar 33 persen dari total stok aset (5 poin persentase di atas angka dasar/baseline), maka rata- rata pertumbuhan tahunan dari stok aset infrastruktur selama periode tersebut akan mencapai 2,2 persen, di bawah angka baseline, karena tingkat stok aset awal yang lebih tinggi akan mengakibatkan tingkat depresiasi yang lebih besar dibanding aliran investasi baru, namun tingkat perkiraan pada akhir periode (tahun 2011) akan menjadi lebih tinggi. Perbedaan asumsi-asumsi tingkat depresiasi juga mempengaruhi laju pertumbuhan dan tingkat stok aset infrastruktur. Sebagai contoh, jika tingkat depresiasi yang digunakan lebih rendah sebesar 3,5 persen (di bawah nilai baseline yang 5 persen) akan menghasilkan tingkat pertumbuhan rata-rata stok aset infrastruktur yang lebih tinggi, dan perkiraan tingkatannya dibanding total stok aset akan lebih besar dari nilai baseline. Catatan: Untuk rincian lebih lanjut lihat Van der Eng, Pierre (2008) ‘Capital Formation and Capital Stock in Indonesia, 1950-2007.’ Kertas Kerja Perdagangan dan Pembangunan No.24. Canberra: School of Economics, ANU College of Business and Economics, Australian National University; McKinsey Global Institute (2013), ‘Infrastructure Productivity: How to save $1 trillion a year’; Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK No. 96/PMK.03/2009); Arslanalp, S. et.al (2011), ‘Investing in Growth’, Finance & Development, Maret 2011. International Monetary Fund; Pritchett, L (2000), ‘The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) is Not Capital’, Journal of Economic Growth, 5:361-384. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 41 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 35: Pertumbuhan riil stok aset keseluruhan jauh Gambar 36: …mengakibatkan penurunan rasio stok aset lebih cepat dibandingkan pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur dibanding jumlah keseluruhannya infrastruktur.… (rasio stok aset infrastruktur terhadap total, persen) (pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur dan keseluruhan, persen) 14 30 12 10 8 Pertumbuhan riil stok 25 aset keseluruhan 6 4 2 20 0 -2 Pertumbuhan riil stok aset infrastruktur -4 15 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia c. …mempengaruhi lintasan pertumbuhan Indonesia Lemahnya Stok aset, termasuk infrastruktur, mencerminkan kapasitas ekonomi untuk memproduksi pertumbuhan stok aset barang-barang dan jasa-jasa. Kualitas dan kuantitas persediaan aset infrastruktur – terutama infrastruktur infrastruktur dasar seperti jaringan jalan, rel kereta api, jembatan, pelabuhan, bandara, listrik, tampaknya telah sarana telekomunikasi dan sistem air – merupakan input yang sangat penting bagi menghambat kinerja produktivitas dan daya saing ekonomi. Sebagian besar penelitian empiris menemukan perekonomian korelasi yang positif antara persediaan aset infrastruktur dan output (Kotak 5). Karenanya, dan Indonesia belakangan sesuai harapan dari dampak perlemahan infrastruktur terhadap usaha dan rumah tangga ini sehari-hari, pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur yang relatif rendah di Indonesia tampaknya telah menghambat kinerja ekonomi Indonesia dalam satu dekade terakhir. Analisa kontra-faktual Analisa kontra-faktual yang sederhana dapat menunjukkan bagaimana lambatnya laju yang sederhana dapat investasi infrastruktur dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan di Indonesia, atau dengan kata digunakan untuk lain, manfaat potensial dari pencapaian tingkatan investasi infrastruktur yang lebih tinggi. mengilustrasikan Sebagai baseline, digunakan asumsi elastisitas output terhadap stok aset infrastruktur yang potensi dampak bagi tinggi sebesar 0,15, karena relatif rendahnya tingkat infrastruktur yang ada di Indonesia – pertumbuhan dengan peningkatan sebesar 10 persen dalam stok aset infrastruktur diasumsikan akan peningkatan stok aset mengakibatkan peningkatan sebesar 1,5 persen pada PDB. Seperti dibicarakan pada Kotak 5, infrastruktur Indonesia telah diketahui bahwa angka multiplier infrastruktur untuk pertumbuhan akan bervariasi menurut jenis infrastruktur, namun karena keterbatasan data, analisis pemilahan ini tidak dapat dilakukan. Untuk analisis skenario, digunakan dua skenario pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur tahunan alternatif sebesar 5 dan 10 persen. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 42 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 5: Studi empiris tentang hubungan antara stok aset infrastruktur dan publik dan pertumbuhan Sejumlah penelitian telah menemukan hubungan yang positif Tabel 8: Penelitian terpilih tentang perkiraan elastisitas antara stok/persediaan aset infrastruktur dan pertumbuhan, walau perubahan output terhadap perubahan aset infrastruktur besarnya perkiraan bervariasi menurut negaranya, bergantung pada Indikator Negara/ wilayah Pengarang OEI* faktor-faktor seperti indikator infrastruktur, periode analisis dan infrastruktur kualitas investasi. Hasil-hasilnya cenderung lebih kuat bila Aschauer pengukur infrastrukturnya bersifat fisik. Penilaian kuantitatif dalam AS 0,39 Aset publik (1989) bidang ini mulai banyak dilakukan dengan karya seminalis dari Aschauer (1989) yang menjelaskan tentang perlambatan Negara Easterly dan Transportasi & 0,16 pertumbuhan produktivitas pada tahun 70an di Amerika Serikat. berkembang Rabelo (1993) komunikasi Aschauer menemukan bahwa stok aset publik berkaitan dengan Calderon dan Transportasi & Lintas negara 0,16 peningkatan yang besar terhadap output swasta, dengan peningkatan Serven (2003) komunikasi sebesar 1 persen pada stok aset publik akan meningkatkan output Esfahani dan swasta sebesar 0,39 persen. Sejak itu, banyak penelitian yang telah Lintas negara Ramires (2003) 0,12 Stok aset fisik dilakukan untuk AS dan negara-negara OECD, lintas negara dan pada tingkat regional. Namun penelitian yang khusus pada satu Asia Tenggara Sahoo dan 0,18 -0,22 Stok aset fisik negara untuk negara-negara berkembang masih terbatas. Salah satu Dash (2008) penelitian suatu negara yang relevan dilakukan oleh Sahoo dkk Lintas negara Ligthart dan (2010) yang menyelidiki peran infrastruktur dalam mendorong 0,15 Aset publik (analisis meta) Bom (2009) pertumbuhan di China selama periode tahun 1975 hingga 2007. Pembangunan infrastruktur di China ternyata memberikan Sahoo dkk 0,20 - China Stok aset fisik kontribusi positif yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan dengan (2010) 0,41 nilai elastisitas output-terhadap-infrastruktur pada kisaran 0,20 Catatan: * OEI adalah elastisitas output terhadap infrastruktur hingga 0,41. Sumber: Diambil dari Sahoo dkk (2010) dan Ligthart dan Bom (2009) Untuk penyederhanaan, didalam simulasi diasumsikan elastisitas output terhadap stok aset infrastruktur sebesar 0,15, sejalan dengan temuan empiris dari Ligthart dan Bom (2009). Pada satu sisi, nilai elastisitas yang relatif konservatif ini memperhitungkan keprihatinan akan lemahnya hubungan antara investasi moneter, stok/persediaan aset fisik, dan layanan infrastruktur. Pada sisi lain, asumsi ini dapat memberikan perkiraan yang terlalu rendah akan dampak eksternalitas positif dari akumulasi modal infrastruktur, misalnya dengan meningkatkan ketersediaan layanan pendidikan dan kesehatan. Asumsi itu juga mengakui bahwa multiplier investasi infrastruktur bagi pertumbuhan akan bervariasi menurut jenis investasi infrastruktur. Sebagai contoh, OECD (2009), dengan menggunakan pengukuran infrastruktur fisik per kapita, memperkirakan sejumlah multiplier bagi berbagai jenis infrastruktur, seperti jalan (0,3 – 0,46), infrastruktur rel kereta api (0,39 – 0,53), jalan tol (0,42-4), listrik (0,39), infrastruktur kabel utama telepon (0,39 – 0,42), dan tingkat pelanggan telepon (0,34 – 0,45). Karena keterbatasan data, analisis pemilahan berdasar jenis infrastruktur ini tidak dilakukan untuk Indonesia. Sumber: Sahoo, Pravakar., Dash, Ranjan Kumar, Nataraj, Geethanjali. (2010). ‘Infrastructure development and economic growth in China’ IDE Discussion Paper No. 261. Institute of Developing Economies; OECD (2009), ‘Infrastructure investment: links to growth and the role of public policies’, Douglas Sutherland, Sónia Araújo, Balázs Égert dan Tomasz Kozluk, OECD Working Paper No. 686, 24 Maret 2009; Ligthart, Jenny E., dan Bom, Pedro RD. (2009). ‘How Productive is Public Capital? A Meta Regression Analysis’ International Studies Program. Andrew Young School of Public Policy Studies. Georgia State University. Tingkat pertumbuhan Rata-rata laju pertumbuhan riil Gambar 37: Investasi aset infrastruktur lebih besar stok aset infrastruktur perkiraan stok aset infrastruktur terkait dengan lintasan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi yang lebih tinggi akan dan PDB riil masing-masing adalah (rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB riil pada 2001-11menurut skenario mendorong tingkat 3,0 dan 5,3 persen, untuk periode pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur yang berbeda-beda, persen) pertumbuhan PDB tahun 2001-2011. Mengasumsikan 8 7.0 yang lebih tinggi… hubungan kausalitas antara 7 perubahan dalam stok aset 6 5.3 5.8 infrastruktur dan output, jika laju 5 pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur adalah 5 persen yoy, 4 dan bukan 3 persen, maka 3 perkiraan rata-rata pertumbuhan 2 PDB tahunan untuk periode ini 1 akan mencapai 5,8 persen, atau 0,5 0 persen lebih tinggi dari rata-rata Actual Scenario I Scenario II pertumbuhan PDB tahunan aktuil (3 percent) (5 percent) (10 percent) sebesar 5,3 persen. Secara Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia kumulatif, tingkat PDB akan 5 persen lebih tinggi pada tahun 2011. Jika pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur lebih besar lagi, misalnya sebesar 10 persen, maka laju pertumbuhan PDB akan mencatat rata-rata sebesar 7 persen untuk periode tahun 2001-11, sekitar 1,7 poin persentase di atas rata-rata akutil, dan tingkat PDB akan 19 persen lebih tinggi pada tahun 2011, yang mencerminkan dampak kumulatif dari rata-rata pertumbuhan tahunan yang lebih tinggi (Gambar 37). O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 43 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …yang akan Analisis empiris yang luas menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan PDB seringkali berkontribusi berkontribusi kepada terhadap pengentasan kemiskinan. Dengan distribusi konsumsi dan garis kemiskinan resmi pengentasan Indonesia – yaitu jumlah penduduk yang hidup pada kisaran 1 persen dari garis kemiskinan – kemiskinan lebih cepat pada beberapa tahun terakhir, untuk setiap peningkatan pendapatan kaum miskin sebesar 1 dan peningkatan hasil persen, tingkat kemiskinan nasional turun sebesar 0,5 poin persentase. Dengan pembangunan menggunakan prinsip sederhana ini, dan sejumlah asumsi tentang tingkat pengaruh pertumbuhan PDB terhadap pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga miskin, pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur yang lebih tinggi sebesar 5 persen (dibanding rata-rata aktuil sebesar 3 persen), akan menambah pertumbuhan konsumsi penduduk miskin sebesar 0,3 persen yoy, dan juga menambah penurunan tingkat kemiskinan sebesar 1.5 poin persentase (tingkat kemiskinan tahun ini akan menjadi 9,9 persen dibanding 11,4 persen saat ini). Jika pertumbuhan stok aset infrastruktur mencapai rata-rata 10 persen, tingkat kemiskinan akan turun sebesar 4,5 poin persentase selama periode tersebut, atau tingkat kemiskinan sekarang akan menjadi 6,9 persen. Perkiraan ini hanya penyederhanaan dan dimaksudkan sebagai ilustrasi. Penting untuk ingat bahwa tingkat pertumbuhan yang didukung oleh infrastruktur yang dapat mendukung pengentasan kemiskinan dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor, seperti jenis infrastruktur, lokasi dan kondisi geografisnya, dan periode analisis. Fokus berkelanjutan Sejak krisis tahun 1997/98, Indonesia telah mengalami kesulitan untuk meningkatkan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan persediaan aset infrastruktur yang berkelanjutan. Sesungguhnya, walau terdapat kuantitas dan kualitas keterbatasan data yang besar, bukti-bukti awal menunjukkan bahwa persediaan infrastruktur belanja infrastruktur tidak bertambah secara signifikan selama periode itu, sehingga stok asetnya menurun sangat penting bagi dibanding total stok aset dan ukuran ekonomi. Dengan permintaan akan layanan Indonesia untuk infrastruktur yang lebih baik tampaknya akan terus meningkat, kebutuhan untuk semakin mewujukan potensi meningkatkan investasi infrastruktur telah terlihat dengan jelas. Karenanya, peningkatan pertumbuhannya... kuantitas dan kualitas investasi publik menjadi penting. Melanjutkan peningkatan alokasi anggaran bagi pembangunan infrastruktur memang memiliki andil, melalui realokasi anggaran, misalnya subsidi energi, dan mendukung perbaikan pengumpulan penerimaan. Secara bersamaan upaya-upaya pemerintah seperti disebut dialam Bagian A, untuk memperbaiki eksekusi anggaran dan pelaksanaan proyek haru terus dilanjutkan. Keberlanjutan fiskal dan persaingan dalam permintaan bagi dana publik juga mendorong penekanan yang kuat akan efisiensi, termasuk menjamin kelancaran operasi dan pemeliharaan atas infrastruktur yang ada, dan secara lebih luas meningkatkan kualitas pengelolaan investasi publik untuk menghasilkan infrastruktur publik prioritas yang dibutuhkan oleh ekonomi. Selanjutnya, juga penting untuk mendukung kebijakan, aturan, dan institusi seperti yang terkait dengan Kemitraan Publik Swasta, yang dapat menciptakan lingkungan yang lebih baik untuk investasi swasta dalam infrastruktur . …dan pengumpulan Seperti telah dibahas, mengukur besaran investasi total dan infrastruktur Indonesia, stok aset dan analisis data lebih dan dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan merupakan suatu tantangan karena rangkaian lanjut akan membantu keterbatasan data dan asumsi-asumsi yang dibutuhkan. Perkiraan dan simulasi yang disajikan memberikan informasi di atas merupakan langkah awal analisis ini. Peningkatan kualitas, ketepatan waktu dan bagi pengambilan cakupan data-data itu merupakan langkah yang penting untuk meningkatkan analisis ini dan keputusan berkualitas untuk memberikan informasi yang lebih baik untuk kebijakan berdasar bukti tentang yang berdasar bukti kebutuhan dan kinerja infrastruktur. Perluasan analisis ini juga dapat mendukung tujuan- untuk mendukung tujuan itu, misalnya, dengan mengaitkan perkiraan investasi dan stok aset dengan indikator- pencapaian sasaran indikator sektor riil, dengan memisahkan investasi dan stok/persediaan menurut jenis dan tersebut daerah, dengan mengaitkan belanja untuk operasi dan pemeliharaan dengan perkiraan stok aset, dan membuat penyesuaian untuk memperhitungkan kualitas investasi, dan dengan mencermati secara lebih rinci akan keterkaitannya dengan hasil pembangunan, termasuk pertumbuhan dan inklusivitas. Perkiraan akan biaya ekonomi dari lemahnya infrastruktur juga akan dapat semakin memperkaya analisis ini. Di dalamnya termasuk tidak hanya biaya ekonomi kemacetan lalu lintas tetapi juga biaya kesempatan (opportunity cost) dari tanggapan sektor swasta, seperti pembelian kapasitas pembangkit tenaga untuk mendukung usahanya atau penambahan jumlah truk-truk untuk mengatasi penurunan jumlah pengiriman yang dapat dilakukan setiap hari oleh setiap truk karena kemacetan lalu lintas. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 44 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 2. Tata kelola pemerintah daerah dan kinerja pendidikan Tugas utama dari Sistem pendidikan yang kuat dan serba guna merupakan hal yang penting bagi pembangunan suatu sistem jangka panjang setiap negara.13 Tugas utama dari sistem pendidikan adalah membekali pendidikan adalah angkatan muda dengan berbagai keterampilan yang mereka butuhkan untuk dapat membekali angkatan berpartisipasi sepenuhnya dalam kehidupan sosial, ekonomi dan politik. Pemberian muda dengan pendidikan dasar dengan kualitas yang baik kepada seluruh anak dapat meningkatkan keterampilan yang produktivitas, meninggikan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mendukung landasan bagi masa mereka butuhkan, depan yang damai. Sebagai contoh, penelitian internasional terbaru menunjukkan bahwa yang sangat penting memastikan seluruh anak menyelesaikan sekolah dengan keterampilan dasar dalam baca-tulis bagi pembangunan dan berhitung dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan yoy per kapita hingga satu poin persentase.14 Manfaat seperti itu akan memberikan dampak positif yang signifikan terhadap prospek pembangunan dan lintasan pertumbuhan jangka menengah di Indonesia. Bagian ini membahas bukti-bukti yang berasal dari penelitian terakhir tentang peran penting yang dapat disumbangkan oleh peningkatan dalam tata kelola pemerintah daerah bagi peningkatan kualitas pendidikan dasar dan memastikan bahwa anak-anak meninggalkan sekolah dengan keterampilan yang memadai. Reformasi pendidikan Dalam lima belas tahun terakhir, Indonesia telah menerapkan paket reformasi pendidikan telah mendorong yang menyeluruh yang dirancang untuk memperluas akses dan meningkatkan kualitas. meningkatnya akses Komponen utama dalam proses reformasi adalah pemindahan tanggung jawab atas layanan sekolah tetapi pendidikan dasar kepada sekolah dan pemerintah di daerah. Upaya reformasi ini, bersama- peningkatan dalam sama dengan peningkatan investasi pemerintah dalam jumlah yang tidak pernah diperkirakan pembelajaran masih sebelumnya, membawa peningkatan yang signifikan dalam akses pendidikan terutama bagi belum terlalu besar anak-anak dari kelompok yang paling miskin.15 Namun peningkatan dalam capaian atau prestasi belajar masih tetap kecil dan anak-anak menyelesaikan sekolah dengan keterampilan yang belum memadai dengan kebutuhan yang diminta oleh pasar tenaga kerja. Seperti pada sistem pendidikan lainnya di dunia, peningkatan kualitas pendidikan dasar masih terus menjadi tantangan utama. Penguatan kapasitas Penguatan kapasitas pemerintah daerah dalam mengelola sistem pendidikannya secara efektif pemerintah daerah merupakan hal yang penting dalam mendukung keberhasilan peningkatan kualitas merupakan kunci pendidikan. Kemampuan pemerintah daerah untuk memberikan layanan pendidikan dasar utama untuk yang berkualitas sangat bervariasi pada berbagai daerah di Indonesia. Identifikasi dimensi tata meningkatkan kualitas kelola utama yang mendasari penyelenggaraan layanan pendidikan yang efektif dapat menjadi pendidikan titik awal dalam upaya menangani kekurangan yang masih ada dan meningkatkan kinerja pendidikan. 13 Bagian ini diambil dari penelitian Bank Dunia yang akan terbit ‘Local governance and education performance: A survey of local education governance in 50 Indonesian districts’. 14 Hanushek, E. dan L. Woessmann (2008). "The role of cognitive skills in economic development." Journal of Economic Literature 46(3). 15 Analisis lebih lanjut akan tren dalam belanja dan hasil pendidikan terakhir di Indonesia dapat dilihat pada laporan Bank Dunia (2013), Indonesia - Spending more or spending better: improving education financing in Indonesia. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/03/17536528/indonesia- spending-more-or-spending-better-improving-education-financing-indonesia. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 45 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia a. Pentingnya tata kelola pendidikan daerah untuk meningkatkan kinerja Desentralisasi Desentralisasi telah Gambar 38: Pemerintah daerah membiayai sebagian besar menempatkan menempatkan pemerintah pendanaan bagi pendidikan dasar pemerintah daerah daerah, terutama pemerintah (sumber belanja pendidikan pemerintah menurut tingkatan, persen, 2009) sebagai pusat kabupaten/kota/kota, Central Province District 100 0 penyelenggaraan sebagai pusat layanan pendidikan penyelenggaraan layanan 80 50 53 dasar… pendidikan dasar. Tanggung 71 61 jawab kabupaten/kota 60 termasuk pengelolaan sistem 100 8 6 40 1 pendidikan secara 3 keseluruhan, perizinan 20 41 38 41 sekolah dan perencanaan 26 dan pengawasan angkatan 0 Total budget Early Primary and Senior Universities pengajar. Kabupaten/kota childhood junior secondary juga menanggung sebagian education secondary besar pendanaan pemerintah Sumber: Perkiraan staf Bank Dunia berdasarkan data Kemenkeu dan bagi sekolah-sekolah dasar APBD dan menengah pertama (Lihat Gambar 38). …dan kapasitas Karena pemerintah daerah memegang peran utama dalam penyelenggaraan layanan dasar, pemerintah daerah kapasitasnya dalam mengelola sistem pendidikan menjadi penentu utama bagi kinerja. dalam mengelola Peluang pendidikan sangat bervariasi di berbagai kabupaten/kota di Indonesia; rata-rata nilai sistem pendidikan ujian nasional untuk tingkat dasar pada tahun 2009 dimulai dari 48 persen di Sumba Barat merupakan penentu Daya di provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur, hingga 83 persen di Kota Mojokerto di provinsi utama capaian Jawa Timur. Faktor kemiskinan, geografis dan sosial-ekonomi lainnya dapat menjelaskan pendidikan sebagian dari variasi tersebut, namun hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kualitas tata kelola daerah juga memegang peranan yang penting. Secara khusus, hasil penelitian menunjukkan catatan hasil pendidikan yang lebih baik di beberapa kabupaten/kota dengan sistem perencanaan dan penganggaran yang lebih efektif dan dengan tingkat persepsi korupsi yang lebih rendah.16 Hasil penelitian tersebut menunjukkan bahwa penangangan kelemahan dalam tata kelola pemerintah daerah harus dilakukan terlebih dahulu demi keberhasilan upaya- upaya peningkatan hasil pendidikan. b. Survei Tata Kelola Pendidikan Daerah Indonesia (ILEG) Survei kualitas tata Untuk menilai keadaan tata kelola pendidikan daerah, survei dilakukan di 50 kabupaten/kota kelola pendidikan (di sembilan provinsi) pada tahun 2009 dan 2012. Kabupaten/kota- yang turut serta dipilih dasar telah dilakukan oleh Kementerian Pendidikan dan Kebudayaan untuk ikut di dalam proyek Basic Education di 50 kabupaten/kota Capacity (BEC) (yang seperti dijelaskan pada Kotak 6, memberikan hibah dan bantuan teknis pada tahun 2009 dan kepada kabupaten/kota-kabupaten/kota terpilih). Survei itu bertujuan untuk: 2012… 1. Memberi penilaian akan kapasitas kabupaten/kota dalam menyelenggarakan layanan pendidikan dasar 2. Melihat keterkaitan antara tata kelola dan kinerja pendidikan di kabupaten/kota 3. Menelusuri perubahan-perubahan yang belakangan terjadi dalam bidang tata kelola pendidikan 4. Menilai pengaruh dari kegiatan-kegiatan pengembangan kapasitas yang mendapat dukungan dari para donor 16Contoh-contoh dapat dilihat pada laporan Bank Dunia (2010). Governance matters to education outcomes. The Indonesia local education governance index (ILEGI): A report card of 50 local governments dan Suryadarma, D. (2012). "How Corruption Diminishes the Effectiveness of Public Spending on Education in Indonesia." Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 48(1): 85-100. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 46 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kabupaten/kota-kabupaten/kota yang turut serta di dalam ILEG tidaklah mewakili Indonesia secara keseluruhan. Hal yang khusus, kabupaten/kota-kabupaten/kota yang turut serta di dalam survei itu cenderung lebih miskin dibanding kabupaten/kota-kabupaten/kota lain namun memiliki tingkat akses dan capaian pendidikan yang sebanding. …dan menyertakan Di dalam survei ILEG itu, tata kelola pendidikan dibagi menjadi empat dimensi utama untuk pengukuran tata keloa mengukur efektivitas lembaga-lembaga pemerintah daerah yang berkaitan dengan pendidikan yang diatur penyelenggaraan layanan pendidikan: ke dalam lima  Transparansi dan akuntabilitas. Upaya pelaksanaan dan penetapan peraturan kelompok utama… perundangan oleh pemerintah daerah untuk mendukung tata kelola sektor pendidikan yang transparan, akuntabel dan partisipatif.  Sistem pengendalian manajemen. Menilai sampai sejauh mana sistem yang ditempatkan dapat menyertakan keputusan-keputusan yang dibuat oleh proses perencanaan tingkat sekolah dan daerah ke dalam rencana kerja pendidikan tahunan tingkat kabupaten/kota.  Sistem informasi manajemen. Mengukur ketersediaan informasi yang berkualitas tentang sistem pendidikan daerah yang dapat digunakan dalam proses perencanaan dan pemantauan pendidikan.  Penggunaan sumber daya yang efisien. Mengamati apakah sistem telah ditempatkan untuk merencanakan, menganggarkan dan memantau penggunaan sumber daya secara efektif. Komponen kelima, standar pelaksanaan layanan pendidikan, merupakan upaya untuk mengukur tingkatan dan kualitas layanan pendidikan dasar dan menengah pertama di suatu kabupaten/kota. Hal ini juga dapat digunakan untuk melihat keterkaitan antara dimensi tata kelola dan kinerja pendidikan. …yang menghasilkan Untuk setiap dimensi, serangkaian indikator digunakan untuk mengevaluasi kualitas tata lima sub-indeks kelola daerah. Indikator-indikator yang digunakan diberi bobot sesuai sifat pengukurannya, dengan pembobotan, apakah untuk mengukur kesesuaian dengan peraturan, proses atau kinerja. Indikator kinerja dan indeks ILEG mendapat bobot terberat dan indikator peraturan menerima bobot yang paling ringan. Untuk keseluruhan untuk mengkaji kualitas tata kelola daerah, serangkaian indikator pada setiap bidang digabungkan memberikan ringkasan menjadi satu sub-indeks. Sebagai contoh, sub-indeks untuk transparansi dan akuntabilitas pengukuran kualitas merupakan rata-rata tertimbang dari sepuluh indikator. Sub-indeks-sub-indeks itu kemudian tata kelola pendidikan dihitung reratanya untuk mendapatkan indeks ILEG, yang merupakan pengukuran daerah keseluruhan akan kualitas tata kelola pendidikan di daerah. Nilai indeks dimulai dari 0 hingga 100 persen dengan nilai yang rendah menunjukkan bahwa komponen tata kelola utama yang mendorong kinerja pendidikan yang lebih baik belum berada pada tempatnya, sementara nilai yang tinggi menunjukkan bahwa komponen-komponen tersebut telah tersedia. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 47 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia c. Temuan utama dari survei ILEG Hasil survei Hasil survei menunjukkan Gambar 39: Kualitas tata kelola pendidikan daerah yang menunjukkan bahwa bahwa keputusan akan prioritas lebih tinggi berkaitan dengan kinerja pendidikan yang daerah dengan tata yang diberikan kepada lebih baik kelola yang lebih baik pendidikan, kualitas masukan (perkiraan nilai ujian SD dan SMP, sumbu-y, nilai pendidikan daerah yang berbeda, sumbu-x) cenderung memiliki (input) yang diberikan dan masukan (input) penyebarannya cenderung lebih 70 pendidikan dengan baik di kabupaten/kota dengan kualitas yang lebih kualitas tata kelola yang lebih 65 tinggi dan penyebaran baik. Sebagai contoh, yang lebih merata, dan kabupaten/kota dengan nilai kinerja pendidikan indeks ILEG yang lebih baik 60 yang lebih baik cenderung memiliki guru yang lebih berkualitas, dengan 55 penyebaran yang lebih merata. Hasil-hasil itu tetap bertahan 50 setelah faktor-faktor lain 0-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100 (seperti kemiskinan, usia kabupaten/kota dll.) peningkatan kualitas tata kelola pendidikan dikendalikan. Hasil realisasi sekunder juga memiliki Catatan: Hasil yang disajikan menunjukkan perkiraan keterkaitan antara indeks ILEG dan hasil Ujian Nasional dengan keterkaitan positif dengan pengendalian pada faktor-faktor lain yang dapat menentukan tingkat penerimaan murid dan nilai ujian tingkat kabupaten/kota (seperti tingkat kemiskinan) nilai ujian. Misalnya, abupaten/kota yang mengalokasikan anggaran yang lebih besar bagi pendidikan dan menerima lebih banyak guru berkualitas, misalnya, cenderung memiliki tingkat penerimaan murid dan nilai ujian yang lebih baik. Kesimpulan hasil-hasil itu menunjukkan bahwa tata kelola daerah yang lebih baik berhubungan dengan kinerja pendidikan yang lebih baik (Gambar 39). Tata kelola pendidikan Tata kelola pendidikan telah Gambar 40: Peningkatan kecil pada tata kelola daerah memang meningkat dari tahun 2009 ke pendidikan secara keseluruhan namun menunjukkan membaik, namun 2012, secara umum taraf pergeseran yang besar pada beberapa dimensi dengan laju yang peningkatannya masih kecil (nilai indeks tahun 2009 dan 2012, persen) lambat… (Gambar 40). Indeks ILEG secara ILEG Index* 2012 2009 keseluruhan meningkat sebesar 3 poin prosentase dan kualitas kualitas tata kelola pendidikan daerah tetap bertahan pada Transparency and Accountibility*** rentang tengah. Namun terdapat Management Information sejumlah pergeseran yang berarti Systems** dalam penyebaran Management Control kabupaten/kota-kabupaten/kota Systems** pada rentangan kinerja. Prosentase jumlah Resource Use** kabupaten/kota yang digolongkan Service Provision memiliki kinerja tata kelola yang Standards*** rendah (dengan nilai ILEG pada 0 20 40 60 80 100 atau di bawah 45 persen) turun Catatan: Simbol asterik menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi dari 28 persen menjadi 16 persen. statistika dari pengujian perbedaan antara indeks tahun 2009 Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa dan 2012 - *** - signifikan pada tingkat 1 persen, ** - pemerintah daerah bergerak ke signifikan pada tingkat 5 persen, * - signifikan pada tingkat 1 arah yang tepat, walaupun masih persen. Sumber: Survei tata kelola pendidikan daerah Indonesia, tahun lambat. 2009 & 2012 O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 48 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dan kelemahan Kinerja lintas bidang-bidang tata kelola yang diukur oleh survei itu juga menunjukkan dalam aspek-aspek perbedaan yang besar. Pemerintah daerah menunjukkan kinerja yang baik dalam standar utama tata kelola pemberian layanan pendidikan yang diukur oleh survei itu. Namun beberapa kabupaten/kota daerah masih ada mendapat nilai yang rendah dalam efektivitas sistem pengendalian manajemennya dan hanya memperoleh hasil rata-rata untuk kualitas sistem informasi manajemennya serta di dalam proses-proses yang mereka miliki untuk mendorong pengambilan keputusan yang transparan dan akuntabel. Terdapat sejumlah Walau dengan kelemahan pada sistem informasi manajemen, dan dalam transparansi dan peningkatan kualitas akuntabilitas, seperti ditemukan oleh survei itu, terdapat sejumlah kemajuan (Gambar 40). sistem informasi Dalam hal transparansi dan akuntabilitas, terdapat peningkatan-peningkatan dalam upaya manajemen pemerintah daerah untuk mendorong partisipasi masyarakat yang lebih besar dalam kegiatan pendidikan dan proses- pengambilan keputusan dan pengawasan. Sebagai contoh, antara tahun 2009 dan 2012 proses untuk proporsi kabupaten/kota yang memperkenankan partisipasi masyarakat di dalam sesi memperkuat akuntabilitas dan pemeriksaan pelaporan parlementer meningkat dari 14 persen ke 52 persen. transparansi… Namun pada tahun 2012, hanya setengah dari kabupaten/kota-kabupaten/kota yang disurvei memperkenankan akses masyarakat terhadap diskusi tentang anggaran dan pemeriksaan di Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah. …namun kelemahan Informasi yang akurat dan tepat waktu sangatlah penting bagi perencanaan dan pemantauan tetap ada, dengan sistem pendidikan daerah yang efektif. Pemerintah daerah mencatat sejumlah peningkatan hanya sepertiga kecil dalam bidang ini antara tahun 2009 dan 2012. Sebagai contoh, jumlah kantor kabupaten/kota yang pendidikan daerah yang memiliki prosedur dan protokol tertulis bagi pengumpulan dan memiliki sistem untuk pemeriksaan data sedikit meningkat pada tahun 2012 dibanding pada tahun 2009. Namun mengumpulkan hanya sekitar sepertiga dari seluruh kabupaten/kota yang telah memiliki sistem itu pada informasi secara akurat tahun 2012. Hal ini merupakan faktor penyumbang bagi perbedaan yang besar di dalam dan tepat waktu variabel utama pendidikan kabupaten/kota ketika sumber-sumber data dibandingkan. Kelemahan dalam hal Penurunan tingkat efektivitas Gambar 41: Kapasitas daerah dalam mencatat dan pengelolaan dan sistem pengendalian manajemen melakukan sosialisasi praktik terbaik telah menurun penggunaan sumber umumnya disebabkan oleh (prosentase kabupaten/kota yang disurvei, tahun 2009 dan 2012) daya oleh daerah penurunan jumlah 0 25 50 75 tampaknya telah kabupaten/kota yang secara Evidence that district meningkat, terutama sistematis mendokumentasikan education office identifies dalam kaitannya dan melakukan sosialisasi innovative good practice dengan dokumentasi contoh-contoh inovasi dan Evidence of a systematic inovasi dan praktik praktik terbaik. Sebagai contoh, approach to document and terbaik pada tahun 2009 dua per tiga catalogue innovative… kabupaten/kota melakukan Evidence of a system for upaya identifikasi dan stakeholders to document good practice dokumentasi praktik terbaik sementara pada tahun 2012 Stakeholders have a 2009 2012 standard procedure to jumlah ini telah merosot menjadi validate good practice kurang dari setengah. Komponen lain dalam dimensi tata kelola ini juga lemah. Pada Sumber: Data survei tata kelola pendidikan daerah Indonesia, tahun 2012, hanya 12 persen tahun 2009 dan 2012 kabupaten/kota yang melakukan konsolidasi rencana pembangunan sekolah untuk digunakan dalam proses perencanaan pendidikan kabupaten/kotanya. Hal ini merintangi upaya reformasi berbasis sekolah yang mendorong para sekolah untuk menyusun rencana pembangunan sekolah sebagai bagian dari proses perencanaan dari bawah ke atas (bottom-up) yang dirancang untuk mengaitkan sumber daya kabupaten/kota secara lebih erat dengan kebutuhan-kebutuhan yang terdapat pada sekolah-sekolah. Walau dengan kemunduran ini, sejumlah aspek pengendalian manajemen mencatat peningkatan selama beberapa tahun terakhir. Secara khusus, sistem manajemen aset tampaknya telah menguat dan jumlah kabupaten/kota yang melakukan pemeriksaan persediaan tahunan dan menerbitkan peraturan daerah tentang manajemen aset telah meningkat. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 49 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Perbedaan antara Faktor-faktor yang mendasari penurunan dimensi tata kelola yang berkaitan dengan rencana dan realisasi penggunaan sumber daya yang efisien ternyata lebih rumit. Bidang tata kelola ini lebih dekat belanja menunjukkan kaitannya dengan penilaian efektivitas dinas pendidikan kabupaten/kota dalam kelemahan dalam merencanakan, menganggarkan dan memantau penggunaan sumber daya pendidikan. penganggaran bagi Indikator efektivitas yang utama dalam bidang ini adalah perbedaan antara rencana dan pendidikan… realisasi belanja pendidikan. Indikator ini menurun dari tahun 2009 ke 2012; jumlah kabupaten/kota yang melaporkan perbedaan antara perencanaan dan realisasi belanja yang kurang dari 10 persen pada tiga tahun terakhir turun dari 46 persen ke 32 persen. Namun penyesuaian yang besar dalam perubahan anggaran sebagian disebabkan oleh perubahan di dalam transfer dari pemerintah pusat , yang berada di luar kendali pemerintah daerah. …namun indikator lain Walaupun sub-indeks Gambar 42: Sejumlah aspek proses perencanaan dan menunjukkan bahwa penggunaan sumber daya penganggaran daerah telah meningkat proses perencanaan yang efisien menurun antara (prosentase kabupaten/kota yang disurvei, tahun 2009 dan 2012) dan penganggaran tahun 2009 dan 2012, Priorities and ceilings are set daerah mulai membaik pemerintah daerah berhasil before the budgeting mencatat sejumlah process in district education office starts peningkatan yang penting 2012 2009 dalam proses-proses yang Education annual and medium term plans include menentukan bagaimana indicative budget ceilings sumber daya publik and take budget limits into… digunakan (Gambar 42). Sebagai contoh, proporsi Annual budget policy includes measurable kabupaten/kota yang outcome indicators menyertakan indikator realisasi yang dapat diukur di Programs and activities in dalam anggaran tahunannya regional strategic plan meningkat dari 72 persen ke (RPJMD) can be measured quantitatively 92 persen. Peningkatan dalam fungsi proses 0 20 40 60 80 100 perencanaan dan Sumber: Data survei tata kelola pendidikan daerah Indonesia, tahun penganggaran daerah juga 2009 dan 2012 telah menunjukkan kemajuan. Antara tahun 2009 dan 2012 proporsi kabupaten/kota yang menetapkan prioritas dan plafon anggaran sebelum dinas-dinas teknis (seperti dinas pendidikan) memulai proses perencanaan mereka, meningkat dari 44 persen menjadi 74 persen. Peningkatan ini mencerminkan upaya-upaya terakhir oleh pemerintah pusat untuk memperkenalkan penganggaran berbasis kinerja dan kerangka kerja belanja jangka menengah. Kotak 6: Pengaruh dana hibah untuk pengembangan kapasitas yang diberikan kepada dinas pendidikan daerah Program Basic Education Capacity(BEC) memberikan dukungan bagi seluruh kabupaten/kota yang menjadi sampel survei ILEG melalui bantuan teknis dan pemberian dana hibah pengembangan kapasitas daerah sebesar 255.000 dolar AS. Sementara jumlah dana hibah itu relatif kecil (secara rata-rata kurang dari satu persen dari rata-rata belanja pendidikan tahunan), dana itu dirancang untuk memperkuat tata kelola pendidikan lokal dan meningkatkan kinerja pendidikan. Sebelumnya diperkirakan bahwa pemerintah daerah akan menggunakan dana hibah pengembangan kapasitas itu untuk menangani bidang-bidang yang menjadi kelemahan, yang ditemukan oleh survei ILEG putaran pertama pada tahun 2009. Namun tampaknya bidang-bidang yang dinilai sebagai paling lemah menerima sumber daya hibah yang lebih rendah dibanding bidang-bidang yang paling kuat. Sebagai contoh, pada tahun 2009 kabupaten/kota-kabupaten/kota telah mencatat peringkat yang relatif tinggi dalam sub-indeks ILEG bagi standar pemberian layanan pendidikan. Walau telah memiliki peringkat yang tinggi, bidang ini ternyata menerima bagian terbesar dari sumber daya hibah BEC. Tidaklah mungkin untuk secara langsung mengaitkan perubahan dalam kualitas tata kelola pendidikan daerah yang dilaporkan oleh survei ILEG dari tahun 2009 hingga 2012 dengan upaya-upaya pengembangan kapasitas. Namun lemahnya penargetan sumber daya untuk pengembangan kapasitas tampaknya memainkan suatu bagian dalam gabungan peningkatan tata kelola yang dicatat oleh survei ILEG. Program-program yang mendukung pengembangan kapasitas yang akan datang harus disusun dengan menggunakan pengalaman yang didapat oleh program BEC, yang menunjukkan pentingnya dukungan dengan penargetan yang cermat, melintasi sektor-sektor tata kelola, dan menyesuaikan dukungan terhadap karakteristik setiap daerah. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 50 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia d. Tanpa penanganan kendala utama tata kelola, kinerja akan sulit meningkat Kinerja pendidikan Hasil survei ILEG menunjukkan pentingnya kualitas tata kelola daerah dalam meningkatkan kabupaten/kota tidak kinerja pendidikan di daerah. Pada intinya, kinerja pendidikan daerah akan sulit meningkat akan meningkat tanpa tanpa adanya strategi-strategi untuk mengatasi kendala-kendala tata kelola utama yang strategi untuk disoroti pada bagian ini. Kemajuan yang dicatat dalam penguatan tata kelola pendidikan mengatasi kendala tata daerah pada empat tahun terakhir berjalan dengan lambat, walau dengan upaya-upaya untuk kelola utama memperkuat kapasitas daerah. Tantangan-tantangan utama harus ditangani terlebih dahulu agar dapat meningkatkan tata kelola pendidikan di daerah.17 Dibutuhkan koordinasi Sementara penguatan tata kelola daerah merupakan hal yang penting untuk mendukung dan integrasi kemajuan berkelanjutan pada sektor pendidikan, penting juga untuk memahami bahwa pendanaan pemerintah transfer pemerintah pusat dan program-program sektor pendidikan di tingkat pusat pusat yang lebih baik membawa sejumlah tantangan kepada tata kelola pendidikan di daerah. Sistem transfer dari dalam perencanaan pemerintah pusat yang berlaku menyebabkan insentif bagi belanja gaji yang lebih tinggi, yang pendidikan di daerah dapat mengganggu proses pengambilan keputusan yang mengakibatkan ketidakcocokan antara kebutuhan sekolah dan alokasi daerah. Sementara pemerintah daerah menanggung sebagian besar pendanaan bagi pendidikan dasar, pemerintah pusat masih memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan. Untuk menurunkan risiko bahwa program-program pemerintah pusat akan merintangi upaya-upaya daerah untuk meningkatkan pengelolaan dan tata kelola sektor pendidikan, terdapat kebutuhan untuk meningkatkan koordinasi dan integrasi antara program-program pemerintah pusat dan daerah. Termasuk didalamnya adalah upaya-upaya untuk menjelaskan peran dan tanggung jawab dan terdapat kebutuhan yang jelas akan peningkatan upaya untuk menyertakan program-program pemerintah pusat ke dalam proses- proses perencanaan di daerah. 17 Diskusi yang lebih lengkap mengenai masalah-masalah ini dapat dilihat pada penelitian Bank Dunia yang akan datang, ‘Local governance and education performance: A survey of local education governance in 50 Indonesian districts’. O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 51 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia LAMPIRAN: INDIKATOR GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA Lampiran Gambar 1: Pertumbuhan PDB triwulanan dan Lampiran Gambar 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB pengeluaran tahunan (kontribusi pertumbuhan PDB riil qoq, dengan penyesuaian musiman, persen) (pertumbuhan PDB riil, persen) Private cons. Gov cons. Investment 4 8.0 Net Exports Discrepancy GDP tahunan (kanan) 4 3 6.0 2 triwulanan, penyesuaian 2 musiman (kiri) Rata-rata (kiri)* 4.0 0 1 2.0 -2 0 0.0 -4 Jun-06 Mar-08 Dec-09 Sep-11 Jun-13 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Catatan: * Rata-rata pertumbuhan Tw-k-Tw pada Q1 2003 – Q1 2013 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; World Bank seasonal adjustment Lampiran Gambar 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB produksi Lampiran Gambar 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil (kontribusi pertumbuhan PDB riil qoq, dengan penyesuaian musiman, (penjualan bulanan, 000 unit) persen) Agriculture Mining and Const 900 130 Manufacture Comm and Trans. Trade, Hotel, & Rest. Other (incl services) Sepeda motor (kiri) 2 110 700 90 1 500 70 0 Kendaraan bermotor 300 (kanan) 50 -1 100 30 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC Lampiran Gambar 5: Indikator konsumen Lampiran Gambar 6: Indikator industri penjualan (indeks) (rata-rata 3 bulan, pertumbuhan yoy, persen) 160 Indeks 30 30 Konsumen, BI indeks Penjualan Retail, BI Penjualan semen 140 (kanan) 20 20 120 10 10 100 0 0 80 Indeks produksi manufaktur (kiri) 60 -10 -10 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Sumber: BI Sumber: CEIC O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 52 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 7: Arus perdagangan riil Lampiran Gambar 8: Neraca pembayaran (pertumbuhan riil triwulanan, persen) (miliar dolar AS) 15 Capital and financial Current account Errors and omissions Overall BoP inflows Ekspor 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -10 Impor -5 -15 -10 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Sumber: BPS Sumber: BI Lampiran Gambar 9: Ekspor barang Lampiran Gambar 10: Impor barang (rata-rata 3 bulanan, miliar dolar AS) (rata-rata 3 bulanan, miliar dolar AS) 20 20 Total Ekspor Total Impor 16 16 12 12 Barang perantara 8 Manufaktur 8 Pertanian & kehutanan Modal Minyak & gas 4 4 Konsumsi Minyak & gas Tambang & mineral 0 0 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Sumber: BPS Sumber: BPS Lampiran Gambar 11: Cadangan devisa dan arus masuk Lampiran Gambar 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter modal (pertumbuhan month-on-month dan yoy, persen) (miliar dolar AS) 150 5.0 3.5 12.0 Inflasi total, tahunan (kanan) Cadangan devisa (kiri) 125 2.5 Suku bunga BI (kanan) 2.5 8.0 Inflasi inti, tahunan (kanan) 100 0.0 1.5 4.0 75 -2.5 Inflasi total bulanan (kiri) Arus masuk investasi portfolio Equities asing (kanan): SUN 0.5 0.0 50 SBI -5.0 25 -7.5 -0.5 -4.0 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sumber: BI; CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 53 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 13: Rincian bulanan IHK Lampiran Gambar 14: Perbandingan inflasi beberapa negara (persen kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan bulanan) (yoy, Agustus 2013) Core Administered Indonesia* 3.6 Volatile Headline Thailand 3.0 Singapore 2.4 China 1.8 Philippines USA 1.2 Korea 0.6 Malaysia 0.0 Japan -0.6 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia *Angka inflasi September untuk Indonesia Sumber: Biro statistik nasional via CEIC; BPS Lampiran Gambar 15: Harga beras domestik dan Lampiran Gambar 16: Tingkat kemiskinan dan pengangguran internasional (persen) (persen kiri, harga partai besar, dalam rupiah per kg kanan) 100 10,000 60 Unemployment rate, LHS 20 Rentang persentase (kiri) Formal employment rate, LHS Poverty rate 45 15 50 7,000 Tingkat kemiskinan (kanan) 30 10 0 4,000 15 5 Beras domestik, IR-III beras Vietnam, 25% broken (kanan) (kanan) -50 1,000 0 0 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sumber: PIBC; FAO; Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS Lampiran Gambar 17: Indeks saham regional Lampiran Gambar 18: Indeks dolar AS dan Nilai tukar rupiah (indeks harian September 2009=100) (indeks harian, kiri dan rupiah/dolar AS, kanan) 250 105 8,000 SET rupiah/dolar 100 200 AS (kanan) 9,000 JCI 95 Apresiasi rupiah 150 10,000 SGX 90 100 BSE 11,000 85 Indeks dolar AS Shanghai (kiri) 50 80 12,000 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Jan-09 Mar-10 May-11 Jul-12 Sep-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 54 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 19: Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah 5- Lampiran Gambar 20: Spread obligasi dolar AS pemerintah tahunan dalam mata uang lokal EMBI (harian, persen) (harian, basis poin) 10 475 60 Indonesia Spread Indonesia dikurangi spread keseluruhan indeks EMBIG (kanan) 8 400 0 6 325 -60 Philippines 4 250 -120 2 Malaysia Thailand 175 -180 Spread Obligasi EMBIG Indonesia (kiri) AS 0 100 -240 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-09 Jan-11 May-12 Sep-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: JP Morgan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Lampiran Gambar 21: Pinjaman international perbankan Lampiran Gambar 22: Indikator sektor perbankan komersial (bulanan, persen) (bulanan, indeks Agustus 2009=100) 230 100 10 Indonesia Rasio pinjaman terhadap 210 simpanan - LDR (kiri) India 80 8 190 Singapore 60 Rasion tingkat 6 170 Rasio kredit pengembalian terhadap Malaysia bermasalah-NPL aset -ROA (kanan) 150 40 4 130 Thailand United States 20 2 110 Rasio kecukupan modal 90 (kiri) 0 0 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI Lampiran Gambar 23: Hutang pemerintah Lampiran Gambar 24: Hutang luar negeri (persentase terhadap PDB; miliar dolar AS) (persen terhadap PDB; miliar dolar AS) External debt, RHS Domestic debt, RHS Private external debt, RHS Total to GDP ratio Public external debt, RHS 60 300 60 External debt ratio to GDP 300 Rasio hutang pemerintah terhadap PDB (kiri) Rasio hutang luar negeri terhadap PDB (kiri) 40 200 40 200 20 100 20 100 0 Juni 0 0 Juni 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sumber: MoF; BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 55 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 1: Realisasi dan anggaran belanja Pemerintah (IDR trillion) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi APBN APBN-P A. Penerimaan negara & hibah 849 995 1,211 1,338 1,502 1,663 1. Penerimaan pajak 620 723 874 981 1,148 1,310 2. Peneriamaan non-pajak 227 269 331 352 349 351 B. Belanja 937 1,042 1,295 1,491 1,726 1,817 1. Pemerintah pusat 629 697 884 1,011 1,197 1,230 2. transfer ke daerah 309 345 411 481 529 586 C. Keseimbangan primer 5 42 9 -53 -112 -35 D. SURPLUS / DEFISIT -89 -47 -84 -153 -224 -154 (persen terhadap PDB) -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.4 -1.5 Sumber: Kementrian Keuangan Lampiran Tabel 2: Neraca Pembayaran (miliar dolar AS) 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Neraca pembayaran 30.3 11.9 0.2 -4.0 -3.7 -1.0 -2.8 0.8 3.2 -6.6 -2.5 Persentase terhadap PDB 4.3 1.4 0.0 -1.8 -1.7 -0.5 -1.3 0.4 1.5 -3.0 -1.1 Neraca berjalan 5.1 1.7 -24.4 0.8 -2.3 -3.2 -8.2 -5.3 -7.8 -5.8 -9.8 Persentase terhadap PDB 0.7 0.2 -2.8 0.3 -1.1 -1.5 -3.8 -2.4 -3.6 -2.6 -4.4 Neraca perdagangan 21.3 24.2 -1.7 7.1 3.5 1.8 -2.0 0.8 -2.4 -0.9 -3.7 Pendapatan bersih dan transfer -16.2 -22.5 -22.7 -6.4 -5.8 -5.0 -6.2 -6.1 -5.4 -4.9 -6.2 Neraca modal dan keuangan 26.6 13.6 25.1 -3.1 0.2 2.1 5.1 5.9 12.1 -0.3 8.2 Persentase terhadap PDB 3.8 1.6 2.9 -1.4 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.6 5.5 -0.1 3.6 Investasi langsung 11.1 11.5 14.0 2.1 3.1 1.6 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.3 Investasi portofolio 13.2 3.8 9.2 -4.6 0.2 2.6 3.9 2.5 0.2 2.8 2.5 Investasi lainnya 2.3 -1.8 1.9 -0.7 -3.2 -2.1 -2.5 -1.2 7.7 -7.0 2.3 Kesalahan & penghapusan -1.5 -3.4 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.8 Cadangan devisa* 96.2 110.1 112.8 114.5 110.1 110.5 106.5 110.2 112.8 104.8 98.1 Catatan: * Cadangan devisa pada akhir periode Sumber: BI; BPS O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 56 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 3: Sekilas tentang perkembangan indikator ekonomi makro Indonesia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Neraca nasional (% perubahan) PDB riil 9.0 8.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 Investasi riil 25.3 22.6 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.8 9.8 Konsumsi riil 23.2 21.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 Swasta 23.9 22.7 3.7 0.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 Pemerintah 18.8 14.7 14.2 6.6 0.3 3.2 1.2 Ekspor rill, barang dan jasa 22.5 18.0 30.6 16.6 15.3 13.6 2.0 Impor rill, barang dan jasa 30.2 29.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 13.3 6.6 Investasi(% PDB) 28 28 20 24 32 32 33 PDB nominal (miliar dolar AS) 114 202 165 286 709 846 878 PDB per kapita (dolar AS) 636 1035 804 1,300 2,984 3,498 3,563 2 Anggaran pemerintah pusat (% GDP) Penerimaan dan hibah 18.8 15.2 20.8 17.8 15.5 16.3 16.2 Penerimaan bukan pajak 1.0 4.8 9.0 5.3 4.2 4.5 4.3 Penerimaan pajak 17.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 11.3 11.8 11.9 Pengeluaran 11.8 13.9 22.4 18.4 16.2 17.4 18.1 Konsumsi .. 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 Modal .. 4.6 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 Pembayaran bunga pinjaman .. 1.4 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Subsidi .. .. 6.3 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 Surplus / defisit 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 Hutang pemerintah 41.9 32.3 97.9 47.6 26.0 24.3 23.9 o/w Hutang luar negeri pemerintah 41.9 32.3 51.4 22.3 9.5 8.3 7.4 Total hutang luar negeri (termasuk sektor swasta) 61.0 61.5 87.1 47.7 28.2 27.5 29.6 3 Neraca pembayaran (% PDB) Neraca pembayaran keseluruhan .. .. .. 0.2 4.3 1.4 0.0 Neraca transaksi berjalan -2.6 3.2 4.8 0.1 0.7 0.2 -2.8 Ekspor, barang dan jasa 25.6 26.2 42.8 35.0 24.7 26.2 24.1 Impor, barang dan jasa 24.0 26.9 33.9 32.0 21.6 23.3 24.3 Neraca perdagangan 1.6 -0.8 8.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 -0.2 Neraca transaksi keuangan .. .. .. 0.0 3.7 1.6 2.9 Investasi langsung bersih 1.0 2.2 -2.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 Cadangan devisa bruto (miliar dolar AS) 8.7 14.9 29.4 34.7 96.2 110.1 112.8 3 Moneter (% perubahan) 1 Deflator PDB 7.7 9.9 20.4 14.3 8.3 8.1 4.5 Suku bunga Bank Indonesia (%) .. .. .. 9.1 6.5 6.6 5.8 Kredit domestik .. .. .. 28.7 17.5 24.4 24.2 4 Nilai tukar nominal (rata-rata,rupiah/dolar AS) 1,843 2,249 8,422 9,705 9,090 8,770 9,387 1 Harga (% perubahan) Indeks harga konsumen (akhir periode) 9.9 9.0 9.4 17.1 7.0 3.8 4.3 Indeks harga konsumen (rata-rata) 7.7 9.4 3.7 10.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 Inflasi keranjang kemiskinan (rata-rata) .. .. .. 10.8 8.7 8.2 6.5 5 Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (dolar AS per barrel) .. 17 28 53 79 112 113 Sumber: 1 BPS dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia; 2 Kementrian Keuangan dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia (untuk 1995 menggunakan tahun dasar 1995/1996, untuk 2000 hanya 9 bulan); 3 Bank Indonesia; 4 IMF; 5 CEIC O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 57 Penyesuaian berlanjut Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 4: Sekilas indikator pembangunan Indonesia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 Kependudukan1 Penduduk (juta) 184 199 213 227 241 244 247 Tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk (%) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Penduduk perkotaan (% terhadap total) 31 36 42 46 50 51 51 Rasio ketergantungan (% penduduk usia kerja) 67 61 55 54 53 53 52 Angkatan kerja2 Angkatan kerja, total (juta) 75 84 98 106 117 117 118 Laki-laki 46 54 60 68 72 72 73 Perempuan 29 31 38 38 45 45 45 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor pertanian (%) 55 43 45 44 38 36 35 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor industri (%) 14 19 17 19 19 21 22 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor jasa (%) 31 38 37 37 42 44 43 Tingkat pengangguran, total (% angkatan kerja) 2.5 7.0 8.1 11.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 Kemiskinan dan distribusi pendapatan3 Konsumsi rumah tangga, median (Rp.000) .. .. 104 211 374 421 446 Garis kemiskinan nasional (Rp.000) .. .. 73 129 212 234 249 Jumlah penduduk miskin (juta) .. .. 38 35 31 30 29 Penduduk miskin (% penduduk dibawah garis kemiskinan) .. .. 19 16 13 12 12 Di perkotaan .. .. 14.6 11.7 9.9 9.2 8.8 Di perdesaan .. .. 22.4 20.0 16.6 15.7 15.1 Laki-laki sebagai kepala rumah tangga .. .. 15.5 13.3 11.0 10.2 9.5 Perempuan sebagai kepala rumah tangga .. .. 12.6 12.8 9.5 9.7 8.8 GINI indeks .. .. 0.30 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.41 Kontribusi konsumsi pada 20% kelompok termiskin (%) .. .. 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 Kontribusi konsumsi pada 20% kelompok terkaya (%) .. .. 38.6 41.4 43.5 46.5 46.7 Pengeluaran publik untuk kesejahteraan masyarakat (% PDB)4 .. .. .. 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 Kesehatan dan gizi1 Dokter (per 1,000 people) 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.29 .. 0.20 Balita kurang gizi (% total anak usia dibawah 5) .. 27.4 24.8 24.4 18.6 .. .. Tingkat kematian balita (per 1000 anak usia dibawah 5 tahun)5 98 67 52 42 34 32 31.0 Tingkat kematian bayi lahir (per 1000 kelahiran hidup)5 27 26 22 19 16 15.5 15.0 Tingkat kematian bayi (per 1000 kelahiran hidup)5 67 51 41 34 28 26.7 25.8 Rasio kematian persalinan (perkiraan, per 100,000 kelahiran hidup) 600 420 340 270 220 .. .. Persalinan yang dibantu penolong kelahiran (% total kelahiran) 36 .. 66 .. 82 .. .. Imunisasi campak (% anak usia dibawah 1 tahun) .. 63 74 .. 76 .. .. Total pengeluaran untuk kesehatan (% of GDP) .. 1.8 n.a 2.8 2.8 2.7 .. Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk kesehatan (% of GDP) .. 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 .. Pendidikan3 Angka partisipasi murni (APM) SD, (%) .. .. .. 92 92 92 93 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 48 48 49 49 Angka partisipasi murni pendidikan tingkat menengah, (%) .. .. .. 52 61 60 60 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 50 50 50 49 Angka partisipasi murni universitas/pendidikan tinggi, (%) .. .. .. 9 16 14 15 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 55 53 50 54 Angka melek huruf dewasa (%) .. .. .. 91 91 91 92 Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (% terhadap PDB) 4 .. .. .. 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (% terhadap APBN) 4 .. .. .. 14.5 19.7 19.8 18.9 Air bersih dan sanitasi1 Penduduk dengan akses air bersih (% total penduduk) 70 74 78 81 84 84 .. Di perkotaan (% penduduk perkotaan) 91 91 91 92 93 93 .. Di perdesaan (% penduduk perdesaan) 61 65 68 71 75 76 .. Penduduk dengan akses kesehatan lingkungan (% total penduduk) 32 38 44 53 58 59 .. Di perkotaan (% penduduk perkotaan) 56 60 64 70 73 73 .. Di perdesaan (% penduduk perdesaan) 21 26 30 38 43 44 .. Lainnya1 Pengurangan resiko bencana, penilaian (skala 1-5; 5=terbaik) .. .. .. .. .. 3.3 .. Proporsi perempuan yang duduk di parlemen (%)6 .. .. 8 11 18 18.2 18.6 Sumber: 1 BPS dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia; 2 Kementrian Keuangan dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia (untuk 1995 menggunakan tahun dasar 1995/1996, untuk 2000 hanya 9 bulan); 3 Bank Indonesia; 4 IMF; 5 CEIC O k to b er 201 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 58 Desember 2013 Pertumbuhan melambat; risiko tinggi PERKEMBANGAN TRIWULANAN PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Pertumbuhan melambat; risiko tinggi Desember 2013 Kata pengantar Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia (Indonesia Economic Quarterly/IEQ) mempunyai dua tujuan. Pertama, untuk menyajikan perkembangan utama perekonomian Indonesia dalam tiga bulan terakhir, dan menempatkan dalam konteks jangka panjang dan global. Berdasarkan perkembangan ini, serta perubahan kebijakan dalam periode tersebut, laporan ini menyediakan perkembangan terkini secara rutin tentang prospek perekonomian dan kesejahteraan sosial Indonesia. Kedua, laporan IEQ ini memberikan penilaian mendalam terhadap isu-isu ekonomi dan kebijakan tertentu, dan analisis terhadap tantangan pembangunan jangka menengah Indonesia. Laporan ini ditujukan untuk khalayak luas termasuk pembuat kebijakan, pemimpin bisnis, pelaku pasar keuangan, serta komunitas analis dan profesional yang terlibat dan mengikuti perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia. IEQ merupakan laporan Bank Dunia di Jakarta dan disusun oleh tim kebijakan makro dan fiskal, unit Pengentasan Kemiskinan dan Manajemen Ekonomi (Poverty Reduction and Economic Management/PREM), Bank Dunia Jakarta di bawah bimbingan Jim Brumby sebagai Sector Manager dan Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop sebagai Economic Adviser dan Lead Economist dan Ashley Taylor sebagai Senior Economist. Tim utama penyusun laporan ini dipimpin oleh Alex Sienaert dan bertanggung jawab di bagian A (perkembangan ekonomi dan fiskal terkini), pengeditan dan produksi adalah Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Brendan Coates, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Eltza Mileva, Violeta Vulovic and Michele Savini Zangrandi. Dukungan administrasi diberikan oleh Titi Ananto dan Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Diseminasi dilakukan oleh Dini Sari Djalal, Farhana Asnap, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan, Nugroho Sunjoyo, Marcellinus Winata dan Randy Salim. Edisi ini juga mencakup kontribusi dari Leni Dharmawan, Lily Hoo, Mattia Makovec, Arvind Nair, Cindy Paladines, Della Temenggung, Violeta Vulovic dan Matthew Wai-Poi. Masukkan utama juga diterima dari The Fei Ming, Neni Lestari, Djauhari Sitorus, Connor Spreng, Ekaterine Vashakmadze dan Anna Wetterberg. Mark Ahern, Jamie Carter, Sjamsu Rahardja, David Nellor dan Bill Wallace (AIPEG), dan Roland Rajah (Australian Government, DFAT) juga memberikan tambahan masukan yang penting. Dokumen ini diterjemahkan ke dalam Bahasa Indonesia oleh Nicolas Noviyanto dan diedit oleh Eva Muhctar, Arsianti, Ahya Ihsan dan Soekarno Wirokartono. Laporan ini disusun oleh para staf International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Bank Dunia, dengan dukungan pendanaan dari Pemerintah Australia (Departemen Luar Negeri dan Perdagangan atau Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, DFAT) melalui program Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA). Temuan-temuan, interpretasi dan kesimpulan-kesimpulan yang dinyatakan di dalam laporan ini tidak mencerminkan pandangan AusAID dan Pemerintah Australia, para Direktur Pelaksana Bank Dunia atau pemerintah yang diwakilinya. Bank Dunia tidak menjamin ketepatan data-data yang termuat dalam laporan ini. Batas-batas, warna, denominasi dan informasi-informasi lain yang digambarkan pada setiap peta di dalam laporan ini tidak mencerminkan pendapat Bank Dunia mengenai status hukum dari wilayah atau dukungan atau penerimaan dari batas-batas tersebut. Foto sampul depan dan bagian dalam diambil oleh Josh Estey dan Ed Wrey, dan merupakan Hak Cipta Bank Dunia. Semua Hak Cipta dilindungi. Untuk mendapatkan lebih banyak analisa Bank Dunia terhadap ekonomi Indonesia: Untuk informasi mengenai Bank Dunia serta kegiatannya di Indonesia, silakan berkunjung ke website ini www.worldbank.org/id Untuk mendapatkan publikasi ini melalui e-mail, silakan menghubungi madriani@worldbank.org. Untuk pertanyaan dan saran berkaitan dengan publikasi ini, silakan menghubungi asienaert@worldbank.org. Daftar isi RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF: PERTUMBUHAN MELAMBAT; RISIKO TINGGI.............. I  A. PERKEMBANGAN EKONOMI DAN FISKAL TERKINI ............................................... 1  1.  Permintaan global perlahan membaik, namun risiko pembiayaan eksternal tetap ada .............................. 1  2.  Walau konsumsi kuat, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat .......................................................... 3  3.  Inflasi IHK telah normal namun inflasi inti meningkat ............................................................................... 7  4.  Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia masih menjadi fokus, walau impor melemah ........................ 9  5.  Kondisi kredit diperkirakan akan semakin ketat memasuki 2014 .............................................................. 15  6.  Pertumbuhan pengeluaran publik dan penerimaan pajak telah melemah selama tahun 2013 ................. 18  7.  Melihat risiko yang ada, dibutuhkan kemajuan lebih lanjut dalam reformasi yang mendukung pertumbuhan ..................................................................................................................................................... 21  B. BEBERAPA PERKEMBANGAN TERKINI PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA .......... 24  1.  Tinjauan lebih dekat terhadap APBN 2014 ................................................................................................. 24  2.  Update tentang kemiskinan di Indonesia ................................................................................................... 30  C. INDONESIA TAHUN 2015 DAN SELANJUTNYA: TINJAUAN PILIHAN ................ 34  1.  Pasar tenaga kerja di Indonesia: pencapaian dan tantangan terkini ......................................................... 34  a.  Tantangan transformasi struktural yang sedang dilakukan tetapi belum lengkap ................................................. 37  b.  “Pekerjaan baik” meningkat, namun banyak pekerja yang tetap informal dan rentan ........................................... 38  c.  Menangani angkatan kerja yang sebagian besar berketerampilan rendah .............................................................. 39  2.  Kapasitas desa dan pembangunan di Indonesia......................................................................................... 41  a.  Sejarah singkat pembangunan berbasis masyarakat di Indonesia ............................................................................ 41  b.  Memahami perubahan kapasitas desa sejak tahun 2001 .......................................................................................... 42  c.  Demokratisasi, desentralisasi, CDD, dan kapasitas desa… ..................................................................................... 45  d.  …dan pentingnya peningkatan pemeriksaan dan penyeimbangan pada tingkat perdesaan .................................. 47  LAMPIRAN: INDIKATOR GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA ................................ 48  DAFTAR GAMBAR Gambar 1: Harga komoditas ekspor utama menunjukkan tanda-tanda stabilisasi, umumnya datar dibanding setahun yang lalu .............................................................................. 2  Gambar 2: Biaya pinjaman di pasar global dan berkembang tetap menunjukkan kecenderungan naik ............................................................................................................................... 2  Gambar 3: Pertumbuhan PDB riil mengalami perlambatan, turun ke 5,6 persen yoy dan 5,0 qoq saar pada triwulan 3… ................................................................................................. 4  Gambar 4: …walau pertumbuhan PDB nominal naik tajam pada triwulan 3 berkat peningkatan harga secara luas .......................................................................................................... 4  Gambar 5: Pertumbuhan investasi telah melambat secara signifikan sementara pertumbuhan konsumsi tetap kuat… ................................................................................................. 4  Gambar 6: …dengan hanya investasi pergedungan mendorong positifnya keseluruhan pertumbuhan investasi ................................................................................................ 4  Gambar 7: Tren indikator frekuensi tinggi bercampur namun di bawah nilai tingginya yang pernah tercatat ............................................................................................................. 5  Gambar 8: Harga sejumlah bahan pangan utama mulai stabil setelah tahun yang bergejolak ...... 7  Gambar 9: Deflasi bahan pangan musiman dan pudarnya kenaikan harga transportasi telah menekan inflasi IHK turun…...................................................................................... 8  Gambar 10: …namun tren inflasi inti telah meningkat secara signifikan ........................................ 8  Gambar 11: Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan mencapai kestabilan pada 8,4 miliar dolar AS di triwulan 3… ................................................................................................................ 10  Gambar 12: …yang dibantu dengan kembalinya neraca perdagangan non-migas ke surplus sejak bulan Agustus ............................................................................................................ 10  Gambar 13: Perlemahan impor didorong oleh kontraksi barang-barang modal............................. 11  Gambar 14: Manufaktur dan konstruksi menyerap hampir 70 persen dari impor Indonesia ......... 11  Gambar 15: Investasi portofolio yang lebih melemah memperkecil surplus neraca modal dan finansial pada triwulan 3 dibanding triwulan 2… ..................................................... 12  Gambar 16:…namun kondisi likuiditas pasar spotvaluta asing dalam negeri telah membaik sejak pertengahan tahun ..................................................................................................... 15  Gambar 17: Pertumbuhan kredit bank telah terinflasi oleh pengaruh kurs tukar… ...................... 16  Gambar 18: …namun telah melambat, terutama secara riil ........................................................... 16  Gambar 19: Likuiditas Rupiah telah mengetat dan biaya pinjaman antar-bank telah meningkat 17  Gambar 20: APBN 2014 menargetkan defisit yang lebih kecil dari tahun 2013 dan penurunan lebih lanjut rasio hutang-PDB … .............................................................................. 25  Gambar 21: …namun kebutuhan pembiayaan hutang bruto akan sama dengan tingkatan 2013 yang tinggi ................................................................................................................. 25  Gambar 22: Subsidi energi tetap menghabiskan bagian yang signifikan dari APBN ................... 26  Gambar 23: Laju pengentasan kemiskinan beberapa tahun terakhir merupakan yang paling lambat selama satu dekade........................................................................................ 30  Gambar 24: Rumah tangga miskin yang masih tersisa di Indonesia berada lebih jauh di bawah garis kemiskinan dibanding sebelumnya pada periode tahun 2000-an… ............... 30  Gambar 25: …sementara peran kaum miskin dan rentan semakin berkurang dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia belakangan ini .................................................... 30  Gambar 26: Dari 121 juta angkatan kerja Indonesia, 114 juta memiliki pekerjaan (kurang dari setengahnya ada di sektor formal) ............................................................................ 35  Gambar 27: Peningkatan lapangan kerja di Indonesia sejak 2005 termasuk yang terkuat di kawasan ...................................................................................................................... 35  Gambar 28: Pertumbuhan pekerjaan tahun-ke-tahun telah bertahan sejak 2005, walau melambat setelah 2011 ................................................................................................................. 36  Gambar 29: Pekerjaan formal berkontribusi empat per lima dari jumlah pekerjaan yang tercipta antara 2001 dan 2012 ................................................................................................... 36  Gambar 30: Sektor-sektor bernilai tambah rendah dalam jasa mencatat kontribusi terbesar terhadap penciptaan pekerjaan antara tahun 2001 dan 2012..................................... 37  Gambar 31: Pertumbuhan pekerjaan dan produktivitas pekerja memiliki korelasi yang negatif .. 37  Gambar 32: Terdapat perbedaan upah yang penting antar sektor, di dalam sektor dan antar jenis pekerjaan .................................................................................................................... 38  Gambar 33: Pekerjaan di sektor formal meningkat, namun kebanyakan pekerja masih bekerja dalam pekerjaan yang rentan .................................................................................... 38  Gambar 34: Walau keterampilan angkatan kerja telah meningkat, kurang dari 8 persen memiliki gelar universitas ......................................................................................................... 40  Gambar 35: Lebih dari 40 persen dari tenaga muda Indonesia berusia 15-24 tahun tidak memiliki pekerjaan, pendidikan, atau pelatihan ...................................................................... 40  DAFTAR LAMPIRAN GAMBAR Lampiran Gambar 1: Pertumbuhan PDB ........................................................................................ 48  Lampiran Gambar 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB pengeluaran ........................................................ 48  Lampiran Gambar 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB produksi .............................................................. 48  Lampiran Gambar 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil .............................................................. 48  Lampiran Gambar 5: Indikator konsumen...................................................................................... 48  Lampiran Gambar 6: Indikator industri penjualan ......................................................................... 48  Lampiran Gambar 7: Arus perdagangan riil.................................................................................... 49  Lampiran Gambar 8: Neraca pembayaran ...................................................................................... 49  Lampiran Gambar 9: Ekspor barang ............................................................................................... 49  Lampiran Gambar 10: Impor barang ............................................................................................... 49  Lampiran Gambar 11: Cadangan devisa dan arus masuk modal .................................................... 49  Lampiran Gambar 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter .................................................................... 49  Lampiran Gambar 13: Rincian bulanan IHK .................................................................................. 50  Lampiran Gambar 14: Perbandingan inflasi beberapa negara ....................................................... 50  Lampiran Gambar 15: Harga beras domestik dan internasional .................................................... 50  Lampiran Gambar 16: Tingkat kemiskinan dan pengangguran .................................................... 50  Lampiran Gambar 17: Indeks saham regional ................................................................................ 50  Lampiran Gambar 18: Indeks dolar AS dan Nilai tukar rupiah ...................................................... 50  Lampiran Gambar 19: Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah 5-tahunan dalam mata uang lokal ......... 51  Lampiran Gambar 20: Spread obligasi dolar AS pemerintah EMBI .............................................. 51  Lampiran Gambar 21: Pinjaman international perbankan komersial ............................................ 51  Lampiran Gambar 22: Indikator sektor perbankan ........................................................................ 51  Lampiran Gambar 23: Hutang pemerintah ..................................................................................... 51  Lampiran Gambar 24: Hutang luar negeri ...................................................................................... 51  DAFTAR TABEL Tabel 1: Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diproyeksikan melemah menjadi 5,3 persen pada tahun 2014.................................................................................................................. III  Tabel 2: Menurut skenario dasar (baseline) PDB diproyeksikan tumbuh 5,6 persen untuk 2013 dan 5,3 persen untuk 2014 ............................................................................................ 6  Tabel 3: Berlanjutnya defisit neraca transaksi berjalan menjadikan sorotan terhadap kebutuhan untuk mendukung FDI ............................................................................................. 12  Tabel 4: Tingginya pembayaran hutang eksternal pada triwulan 4, 2013 akan menambah tekanan pada Rupiah… ........................................................................................................... 13  Tabel 5: Pencairan APBN yang lebih tinggi menjadi karakteristik periode Jan-Nov 2013, dibanding tahun-tahun yang lalu .............................................................................. 19  Tabel 6: Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit fiskal 2,1 persen dari PDB untuk 2014, turun dari 2,5 persen untuk 2013 ................................................................................................. 20  Tabel 7: Pertumbuhan konsumsi dan investasi yang sedikit lebih lemah dari perkiraan dapat menyebabkan pertumbuhan PDB tahun 2014 menjadi di bawah 5 persen ............. 21  Tabel 8: Defisit fiskal yang disetujui pada tahun 2014 adalah 1,7 persen dari PDB, sedikit di atas usulan sebelumnya .................................................................................................... 27  Tabel 9: Asumsi ekonomi makro dan harga telah direvisi ke arah yang konservatif dibanding RAPBN bulan Agustus .............................................................................................. 28  Tabel 10: Kerangka Anggaran Jangka Menengah memproyeksikan surplus secara keseluruhan pada tahun 2016.......................................................................................................... 29  Tabel 11: Perbandingan Aspek Penelitian Utama pada LLI1, LLI2 dan LLI3 .............................. 44  DAFTAR LAMPIRAN TABEL Lampiran Tabel 1: Realisasi dan anggaran belanja Pemerintah .................................................... 52  Lampiran Tabel 2: Neraca Pembayaran.......................................................................................... 52  Lampiran Tabel 3: Perkembangan indikator ekonomi makro Indonesia ...................................... 53  Lampiran Tabel 4: Sekilas indikator pembangunan Indonesia...................................................... 54  DAFTAR KOTAK Kotak 1: Potensi dampak jangka pendek dari usulan larangan ekspor bahan mineral mentah terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia .................................................................. 14  Kotak 2: Perkembangan terbaru tentang kebijakan-kebijakan untuk meningkatkan iklim investasi di Indonesia ................................................................................................ 23  Kotak 3: BLSM, Susenas, dan pengukuran kemiskinan ................................................................. 31  Kotak 4: Metodologi Penelitian Kelembagaan Desa ...................................................................... 44  Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Ringkasan eksekutif: pertumbuhan melambat; risiko tinggi Melihat ke tahun 2014, Kuartal akhir tahun 2013 telah mencatat penyesuaian ekonomi Indonesia yang masih Indonesia menghadapi berlangsung terhadap terus melemahnya harga-harga komoditas dan kondisi pembiayaan perlambatan eksternal yang lebih ketat, dan tekanan neraca pembayaran. Sejumlah kebijakan telah pertumbuhan dan menanggapinya, terutama melalui kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat, depresiasi riil Rupiah risiko-risiko ekonomi yang cukup besar dan belanja investasi dan pertumbuhan produksi (output) telah melemah. yang signifikan… Perkembangan-perkembangan ini umumnya mendukung keberlangsungan stabilitas ekonomi makro, termasuk membantu menurunkan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan, walaupun dampaknya terus berlangsung, menambah ketidakpastian terhadap perekonomian domestik. Pada saat bersamaan, lingkungan internasional juga bergeser, dengan pertumbuhan global diperkirakan meningkat, membawa potensi perubahan kebijakan, terutama kebijakan moneter Amerika Serikat, yang dapat meningkatkan tekanan pada posisi pembiayaan eksternal Indonesia. …yang membutuhkan Sejalan dengan melambatnya laju pertumbuhan, dan risiko-risiko yang dihadapi oleh fokus kebijakan tidak ekonomi, ada kebutuhan yang kuat bagi Indonesia untuk semakin meningkatkan kemajuan hanya pada dari kebijakan yang berfokus pada makro seperti kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat, penyesuaian makro penyesuaian kurs tukar dan tekanan impor, dengan reformasi yang lebih dalam untuk tetapi juga pada mendorong kinerja ekspor dan mendukung aliran masuk modal investasi, terutama implementasi yang penanaman modal langsung/FDI. Kemajuan dalam implementasi yang kredibel dari upaya- kredibel dari reformasi- upaya tersebut dapat membantu membatasi kerentanan neraca pembayaran Indonesia reformasi investasi terhadap kondisi pembiayaan global yang lebih ketat, atau lebih bergejolak, dan dapat jangka panjang dan membantu mendukung siklus investasi yang kuat, termasuk investasi luar negeri, dan peningkatan ekspor pertumbuhan produksi dalam jangka menengah. Dinamika politik tahun pemilu dapat memainkan peran penting dalam pemilihan kebijakan tahun 2014 namun hal ini juga menambah pentingnya komunikasi dan koordinasi yang jelas terhadap reformasi yang dalam, baik dalam tahap perumusan dan pelaksanaan, dan pencegahan kesalahan pengambilan kebijakan. Hal ini akan mendukung kepercayaan investor dalam dan luar negeri terhadap prospek pertumbuhan Indonesia, dan aliran masuk pembiayaan luar negeri. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA I Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Kinerja ekonomi dunia Kondisi ekonomi negara-negara ekonomi terbesar di dunia, dan mitra-mitra perdagangan diperkirakan akan utama Indonesia, masih tetap tidak merata. Pertumbuhan di AS telah mulai meningkat semakin membaik selama tahun 2013, sementara zona Eropa pada akhirnya berhasil keluar dari resesi yang pada tahun 2014… panjang walau dengan pemulihan yang lambat, sementara pertumbuhan di Jepang telah melemah, namun masih tetap positif. Ekonomi Cina mencatat percepatan pada paruh kedua tahun 2013, dan diikuti oleh India pada beberapa bulan terakhir, namun kegiatan pada perekonomian negara berkembang utama lainnya, seperti Brasil, masih tetap lebih lemah. Memasuki tahun 2014, proyeksi dasar (baseline) adalah berlanjutnya penguatan kondisi ekonomi global, dengan semakin membaiknya negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi, yang mendukung pertumbuhan perekonomian negara berkembang, terutama termasuk Cina, dan mendorong berlanjutnya peningkatan permintaan yang moderat untuk ekspor Indonesia. …dan harga-harga Secara umum harga-harga komoditas internasional telah meningkat pada beberapa bulan komoditas telah terakhir yang mengangkat indeks harga sepuluh komoditas ekspor utama Indonesia sebesar stabil… 3,8 persen sejak bulan Agustus (walau masih 2 persen lebih rendah pada tahun 2013 dan 22 persen di bawah nilai puncak terakhirnya pada bulan Februari 2011), yang dibantu oleh peningkatan harga batubara, gas alam dan minyak sawit. Jika terus berlanjut, mulai stabilnya harga-harga komoditas ini akan membantu memperlambat penurunan nilai tukar perdagangan Indonesia yang telah mendorong sebagian besar penurunan dalam neraca pembayaran. Namun, prospek dasar (baseline) dengan sedikit membaiknya pertumbuhan dunia, bersamaan dengan kemungkinan pengetatan kondisi likuiditas dunia, dan tekanan turun yang lebih terstruktur terhadap harga dari faktor-faktor sisi penawaran, tidak mencerminkan peningkatan besar dalam harga komoditas untuk tahun 2014. …namun risiko Prospek internasional, walau membaik, masih mengandung ketidakpastian dan tantangan kebijakan dan kondisi kebijakan yang cukup besar. Di Eropa, jalannya pemulihan masih rapuh dan tampaknya tidak keuangan internasional akan merata karena tantangan pelaksanaan penurunan hutang dan kebijakan yang cukup masih menjadi besar. Di Asia, kecepatan dan ragam penerapan upaya reformasi struktural yang ambisius di tantangan bagi Cina dan Jepang, dan pemilu di India, akan mempengaruhi prospeknya. Di atas semua itu, Indonesia penetapan waktu dan kecepatan penghapusan bertahap dari program pembelian aset Bank Sentral AS (yang disebut “tapering”) tidaklah pasti, namun menjaga risiko gejolak pasar dunia dan kondisi pembiayaan eksternal yang lebih sulit tetap menjadi perhatian utama. Penyesuaian ekonomi Seperti yang disoroti pada IEQ edisi bulan Oktober 2013, perkiraan terjadinya penghapusan dan kebijakan selama bertahap oleh Bank Sentral AS, dan kondisi pengetatan pembiayaan luar negeri yang terkait, tahun 2013 di mulai bulan Mei, bersama-sama dengan pengaruh semakin rendahnya harga komoditas sejak Indonesia cukup tahun 2011, telah mendorong sejumlah penyesuaian ekonomi dan kebijakan di Indonesia signifikan… pada paruh kedua tahun 2013, yang sekarang masih berlangsung. Bank Indonesia (BI) telah meningkatkan suku bunga BI Rate-nya sebesar 175 basis poin sejak bulan Juni, ketika Pemerintah meningkatkan harga BBM bersubsidi sebesar rata-rata 33 persen. Rupiah telah mencatat depresiasi sebesar 24 persen terhadap dolar AS selama tahun berjalan, terutama sejak bulan Agustus, dan secara riil - tertimbang dengan mitra dagang - telah turun sebesar 12,5 persen dari nilai puncak terakhirnya pada bulan Mei hingga Oktober. …dan pertumbuhan Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia telah melambat secara signifikan, menjadi 5,6 persen telah melambat, tahun-ke-tahun (yoy) pada kuartal ketiga, melanjutkan penurunan pertumbuhan selama lima mengurangi kuartal berturut-turut sejak pertumbuhan sebesar 6,4 persen yoy pada kuartal kedua tahun permintaan impor, 2012. Sebagian besar perlambatan didorong oleh perlemahan investasi, yang sedikit terutama bagi barang- meningkat menjadi 4,5 persen yoy pada kuartal ketiga, yang mencerminkan kontraksi barang modal, dan investasi peralatan dan permesinan dibandingkan tahun lalu. Perlemahan investasi membantu mengurangi impor barang modal, nilai impor dolar AS lebih rendah sebesar 16,3 persen yoy menstabilkan defisit dari 3 bulan ke Oktober. Volume impor secara keseluruhan telah melemah dan mencatat neraca transaksi kontraksi yang signifikan pada kuartal ketiga. Volume ekspor juga mencatat kontraksi secara berjalan berurutan pada kuartal ketiga, namun tidak sebesar kontraksi impor, sehingga selisih ekspor bersih menambah secara signifikan kepada pertumbuhan produksi. Secara keseluruhan, terdapat tanda-tanda bahwa neraca perdagangan Indonesia sedang bergeser menuju stabilisasi dan mulai mempersempit defisit neraca transaksi berjalan secara keseluruhan. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA II Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Sejauh ini penyesuaian Secara umum penyesuaian kurs tukar dan kebijakan moneter yang dilaksanakan pada tahun ekonomi makro 2013 membawa pengaruh yang positif bagi stabilitas ekonomi makro, dengan depresiasi membawa dampak Rupiah bertindak sebagai “peredam kejutan” bagi perlemahan perdagangan dengan umum yang positif mendorong penerimaan ekspor dan mengurangi permintaan impor. Namun penyesuaian- bagi stabilitas, namun penyesuaian itu menghabiskan biaya, dan dapat membawa resiko terutama dengan memberi berbiaya besar… tekanan kepada neraca pemerintah dan swasta melalui peningkatan nilai Rupiah dari hutang luar negeri (terutama jika terdapat selisih penerimaaan dan pengeluaran valuta) dan mengikis penerimaan karena lebih tingginya biaya pelunasan hutang dan biaya impor. …dan sementara Kebijakan penyesuaian moneter dan kurs tukar membawa beban bagi penyesuaian makro APBN 2014 mengambil jangka pendek. APBN 2014, yang disahkan DPR pada tanggal 25 Oktober, mempertahankan sikap yang hati-hati, sikap non-ekspansifnya, dengan memproyeksikan penurunan defisit fiskal menjadi sebesar namun tidak 1,7 persen dari PDB secara keseluruhan. APBN 2014 tidak memiliki rencana reformasi mengandung reformasi penerimaan atau pengeluaran besar apapun, walau terdapat penurunan alokasi subsidi listrik fiskal besar apapun sebesar 29 persen dibanding tahun 2013, yang mencerminkan rencana untuk melanjutkan penyesuaian naik bagi tarif yang masih berlangsung. Dengan dampak positif kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada Juni 2013 diimbangi oleh perlemahan Rupiah, alokasi untuk subsidi BBM direncanakan tetap signifikan pada 2014 sebesar IDR 211 triliun (atau 2 persen dari PDB), atau naik IDR 11 triliun dibandingkan APBN-P 2013. Bank Dunia Dengan terus berlangsungnya dampak dari lebih rendahnya harga-harga komoditas, lebih memproyeksikan ketatnya kondisi pembiayaan eksternal, lebih tingginya suku bunga riil dalam negeri, dan perlambatan depresiasi Rupiah, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia akan pertumbuhan PDB ke melambat menjadi 5,3 persen pada tahun 2014 untuk base case (Tabel 1), dari 5,6 persen pada 5,3 persen pada 2014, tahun 2013. Dibantu dengan pertumbuhan impor yang relatif lemah dan sedikit peningkatan dan defisit neraca dalam ekspor, defisit neraca transaksi berjalan akan menyusut, menjadi 23 miliar dolar AS transaksi berjalan pada tahun 2014 (2,6 persen dari PDB), dari 31 miliar dolar AS (3,5 persen dari PDB) pada mengecil… tahun 2013. Tabel 1: Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diproyeksikan melemah menjadi 5,3 persen pada tahun 2014 2011 2012 2013p 2014p PDB riil (Persen perubahan tahunan) 6,5 6,2 5,6 5,3 Harga indeks konsumen (Persen perubahan tahunan) 5,4 4,3 7,0 6,1 Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan (Persen dari PDB) 0,2 -2,8 -3,5 -2,6 Defisit APBN (Persen dari PDB) -1,1 -1,9 -2,5 -2,1 PDB mitra perdagangan utama (Persen perubahan tahunan) 3,6 3,4 3,4 3,9 Sumber: BI; BPS; Kementerian Keuangan; proyeksi staf Bank Dunia (2013p dan 2014p) …namun risiko-risiko Namun proyeksi-proyeksi itu juga mengandung faktor ketidakpastian yang cukup besar, dan di sekitar perkiraan risiko-risiko bersifat condong pada pertumbuhan domestik lebih rendah. Secara khusus, dasar (baseline) lebih proyeksi dasar (baseline) bergantung pada kecukupan dukungan kondisi pembiayaan eksternal condong kepada untuk menghindari penyesuaian neraca eksternal yang lebih tiba-tiba, yang akan pertumbuhan yang menyebabkan gangguan ekonomi dan memperlambat pertumbuhan. Penurunan seperti itu lebih lambat… dapat dipicu oleh perkembangan pasar internasional, atau secara lebih khusus lagi karena perkembangan kebijakan dan ekonomi dalam negeri. Selain risiko-risiko yang terkait dengan pertumbuhan, juga terdapat risiko-risiko terhadap prospek fiskal. Sebagai contoh, Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa depresiasi Rupiah sebesar 10 persen akan meningkatkan defisit fiskal sebesar 0,3-0,4 poin persentase dari PDB, yang umumnya berasal dari peningkatan biaya subsidi BBM (lihat IEQ edisi bulan Oktober 2013). …dengan perhatian Proyeksi PDB Indonesia sangat sensitif terutama terhadap prospek investasi yang khusus terhadap risiko menghadapi risiko-risiko peningkatan lebih lanjut dari suku bunga riil dan gejolak kurs tukar pertumbuhan investasi, valuta, dan pengetataan yang lebih besar dari perkiraan kondisi kredit yang berdampak pada tetapi juga pada daya pertumbuhan investasi bangunan yang sejauh ini sangat kokoh. Selain itu, terdapat risiko tahan konsumsi swasta bahwa pertumbuhan konsumsi swasta—walaupun sejauh ini masih kokoh—dapat menerima tekanan yang lebih besar dari peningkatan harga dan suku bunga, penurunan pertumbuhan pendapatan dan pengaruh dari penurunan kekayaan dan kepercayaan. Pertumbuhan Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA III Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia permintaan dalam negeri yang hanya sedikit lebih rendah dari yang diantisipasi (misalnya penurunan konsumsi dan investasi hanya sebesar 0,5 poin persentase) dapat menurunkan tingkat pertumbuhan PDB menjadi di bawah 5 persen. Moderasi permintaan dalam negeri yang lebih kuat, misalnya, karena semakin terbatasnya pembiayaan eksternal atau pengaruh penurunan keyakinan karena kebijakan yang buruk, dapat membawa pertumbuhan tahun 2014 dibawah 4,5 persen. Terdapat kebutuhan Dengan jumlah barang-barang konsumsi yang berada di bawah 10 persen dari impor kebijakan untuk Indonesia, penurunan dalam impor, sementara mendukung penurunan defisit neraca mendukung ekspor transaksi berjalan, juga berarti lebih terbatasnya impor bahan mentah dan bahan setengah dan aliran masuk FDI, jadi yang tersedia bagi produksi barang-barang manufaktur, dan lebih rendahnya impor dan untuk barang-barang modal. Dengan tidak tersedianya bahan pengganti atau pesaing di dalam menghindari langkah- negeri, maka hal ini akan secara langsung membebani pertumbuhan produksi saat ini dan langkah yang dapat masa depan, termasuk bagi ekspor. Sementara penurunan impor karena pengaruh merusak yang pendapatan dan harga relatif dapat berguna untuk proses penyesuaian jangka pendek, ditujukan pada tantangan kebijakan sesungguhnya bagi Indonesia adalah tidak memfokuskan pada tambahan pembatasan impor penurunan impor melalui peraturan perundangan, namun dengan meningkatkan ekspor, dan mendapatkan pendanaan yang lebih banyak dan berkualitas lebih tinggi, terutama FDI. Upaya-upaya untuk Sementara aliran FDI ke Indonesia sejauh ini masih tetap kokoh, walau perbandingannya memperbaiki terhadap PDB masih relatif lebih rendah dibanding negara-negara tetangga, didukung oleh lingkungan usaha tiga faktor yang semuanya terpengaruh oleh taraf yang berbeda-beda di bawah tekanan yang memiliki peran penting belakangan terjadi: sumber daya alam Indonesia yang besar (tertekan dengan harga dalam meningkatkan komoditas dunia yang relatif lemah), pasar dalam negeri yang besar dan bertumbuh (sedikit daya tarik Indonesia tertekan, setidaknya untuk jangka pendek, dengan kendala yang menghadang permintaan terhadap aliran masuk dalam negeri) dan potensi Indonesia sebagai pusat produksi wilayah Asia (tertekan oleh FDI… ketidakpastian peraturan perundangan dan kesenjangan keterampilan dan infrastruktur). Karenanya, terdapat kebutuhan yang jelas untuk membuat kemajuan lebih lanjut dalam mendukung FDI, dengan mendorong revisi daftar negatif investasi (DNI) yang mendukung investasi, yang menjadi inti dari paket kebijakan Pemerintah pada bulan Agustus yang kini masih menunggu pelaksanaan, dan memperkuat kualitas dari keseluruhan proses penyusunan kebijakan investasi untuk meminimalkan ketidakpastian kebijakan. Pemerintah juga telah meluncurkan paket kebijakan yang cukup berarti untuk meningkatkan kemudahan melakukan usaha, dengan rencana tindakan yang diumumkan pada tanggal 25 Oktober dalam delapan bidang “Doing Business”. Kini tantangannya adalah melaksanakan paket itu sesuai dengan jadwal waktu yang ambisius pada bulan Februari 2014, untuk memberikan pesan yang positif kepada lingkungan dunia usaha dan komitmen dalam implementasi reformasi. …dan perbaikan Depresiasi riil Rupiah selama 2013, dengan meningkatkan daya saing internasional, membuka proses dan peraturan kesempatan bagi Indonesia untuk meningkatkan kinerja ekspornya. Perlemahan harga-harga perundangan dalam komoditas juga dapat menggeser investasi ke sektor-sektor bukan sumber daya alam, fasilitasi perdagangan termasuk manufaktur dengan orientasi ekspor. Seperti yang disoroti oleh IEQ edisi bulan dan logistik juga dapat Oktober, tersedia sejumlah “hasil cepat” pada bidang fasilitasi perdagangan dan logistik, memberikan “hasil dengan fokus pada kinerja perizinan kargo impor pada pelabuhan-pelabuhan seperti Tanjung cepat” untuk Priok di Jakarta, yang dengan peningkatan efisiensi dan prediktabilitas dalam logistik meningkatkan ekspor perdagangan dapat mendorong ekspor dan memperkuat peran serta Indonesia di dalam jaringan produksi dunia. Dukungan terhadap daya saing ekspor dengan jangka yang lebih panjang juga membutuhkan fokus yang berkelanjutan dalam mengatasi kesenjangan infrastruktur dan keterampilan. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA IV Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Penekanan yang Seperti yang disoroti pada IEQ edisi-edisi yang lalu, subsidi BBM masih menjadi sumber berkelanjutan pada utama risiko fiskal, mengurangi kemampuan kurs tukar valuta yang fleksibel dalam meredam kualitas belanja, kejutan, dan mengalihkan belanja dari penggunaan yang lebih efisien, termasuk peningkatan termasuk, melalui investasi publik yang sangat dibutuhkan. Walau peningkatan harga BBM seberapapun reformasi subsidi nampaknya bukan merupakan pilihan yang dapat diterima secara politis menjelang pemilu, energi, dapat keadaan ini menunjukkan betapa pentingnya upaya reformasi lebih lanjut, dan pada saat yang membantu mencapai bersamaan memperbaiki jaring pengaman sosial bagi kelompok miskin dan rentan. sasaran pembangunan Reformasi tersebut termasuk yang tidak segera berdampak langsung terhadap harga, seperti jangka panjang… penerapan pendekatan berdasarkan aturan (rule-based) dalam menentukan harga BBM bersubsidi sedemikian rupa agar secara bertahap dapat membatasi eksposur fiskal terhadap harga BBM dalam denominasi Rupiah.. …termasuk langkah- Melakukan re-alokasi belanja subsidi dapat mendukung penguatan program perlindungan langkah membuat sosial Indonesia. Sementara perluasan program bantuan sosial jangka panjang baru-baru ini kemajuan lebih banyak pada kwartal ketiga 2013 disambut baik, belanja bantuan sosial (sekitar 0.5 persent dari PDB) dalam pengurangan tetap rendah berdasarkan standar global dan dibutuhkan komitmen terhadap bantuan sosial kemiskinan, … yang berkembang dan efektifitas pelaksanaan program untuk membantu mempercepat pengurangan kemiskinan. Sebagai contoh, tingkat kemiskinan di Indonesia turun sebesar 0,6 poin persentase dalam setahun hingga Maret 2013, menjadi 11,4 persen sesuai pengukuran resmi. Menuju 2014, lebih tingginya harga-harga dan lebih lambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menambah tantangan pengentasan kemiskinan. Sesungguhnya, model kemiskinan Bank Dunia memproyeksikan bahwa tingkat kemiskinan pada bulan Maret 2014 akan mencapai 11,0-11,1 persen, yang mengindikasikan perlambatan laju pengentasan kemiskinan yang sedang berlangsung dan menunjukkan bahwa sasaran tingkat kemiskinan Pemerintah untuk tahun 2014 sebesar 8-10 persen tampaknya tidak akan tercapai. … untuk mengatasi Untuk membuat kemajuan lebih lanjut dalam pencapaian sasaran-sasaran pembangunan tantangan pasar tenaga jangka menengah Indonesia, perubahan struktural yang positif yang sedang berlangsung pada kerja jangka panjang pasar tenaga kerja harus didukung. Hal ini membutuhkan langkah-langkah untuk dan kapasitas tata memfasilitasi pertumbuhan lapangan kerja formal pada sektor-sektor dengan nilai tambah pemerintaha di tingkat yang lebih tinggi, termasuk meningkatkan dasar keterampilan dari angkatan kerja Indonesia. daerah Edisi IEQ ini juga mengupas hasil survey terbaru dari unsur penting lainnya untuk mencapai tujuan pembangunan, yaitu memperkuat kapasitas tata kelola daerah dalam penyampaian pelayanan yang efektif. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA V Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia A. Perkembangan ekonomi dan fiskal terkini 1. Permintaan global perlahan membaik, namun risiko pembiayaan eksternal tetap ada Kinerja pertumbuhan Kondisi ekonomi di ekonomi terbesar dunia, dan para mitra perdagangan utama Indonesia, negara-negara mitra tetap tidak merata. Zona Eropa akhirnya keluar dari resesi pada triwulan kedua tahun 2013, dagang utama setelah mencatat kontraksi selama enam triwulan berturut-turut, namun pertumbuhan Indonesia tetap kembali melemah pada triwulan ketiga (ke 0,4 persen triwulan-ke-triwulan (quarter-to-quarter, beragam menjelang qoq) pada tingkat disetahunkan dengan penyesuaian musiman (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, akhir 2013… saar), menunjukkan jalur pemulihan tidaklah mulus. Pertumbuhan juga melemah di Jepang pada triwulan ketiga, menjadi 1,1 persen qoq saar, sementara, sebaliknya, pertumbuhan AS menguat ke 3,6 persen qoq saar, yang mencerminkan bahwa ekonomi AS terus meningkat dengan cukup stabil selama tahun 2013. Di antara ekonomi-ekonomi berkembang utama, pertumbuhan di Cina meningkat ke 9,3 qoq saar, namun output di Brasil berkontraksi pada triwulan ketiga dibanding triwulan kedua, sebesar 0,5 persen (dengan penyesuaian musiman) dan pertumbuhan relatif lemah di India (4,8 persen tahun-ke-tahun (year-on-year, yoy), pada triwulan ketiga) walau belakangan ini tampaknya pertumbuhan akan kembali menguat. …namun permintaan Melihat ke depan ke tahun 2014, pertumbuhan di negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi global diperkirakan diperkirakan akan tetap atau meningkat dari laju saat ini, dengan pemulihan Zona Eropa akan sedikit membaik yang masih rapuh diperkirakan akan berlanjut, dan ekonomi AS diperkirakan akan meningkat pada tahun 2014… dengan laju yang mendekati lajunya sekarang. Didukung dengan ekspansi ringan ini, pertumbuhan negara-negara berkembang juga diperkirakan akan turut meningkat, dengan ekonomi Cina meningkat sebesar 7,7 persen pada tahun 2014, dan pertumbuhan negara berkembang selain Cina meningkat melampaui 4 persen pada tahun 2014, naik dari sekitar 3,5 persen pada tahun 2013. Sejalan dengan itu, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan pertumbuhan para mitra perdagangan Indonesia secara rata-rata tertimbang akan meningkat menjadi 3,9 persen pada tahun 2014, naik sebesar 0,5 poin persentase dari tahun 2013. Dengan demikian, pada base case , permintaan internasional akan meningkat secara moderat selama tahun 2014, mendorong keberlanjutan ekspansi yang tidak besar bagi permintaan ekspor Indonesia. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 1 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia …dan harga komoditas Harga-harga komoditas internasional pada umumnya telah meningkat selama beberapa bulan utama Indonesia terakhir. Indeks harga tertimbang untuk sepuluh komoditas ekspor utama Indonesia dalam mungkin akan stabil dolar AS, yang merupakan sekitar setengah dari jumlah penerimaan ekspor, menurun pada kembali, setelah bulan September dan kemudian kembali meningkat menjelang akhir bulan November, berkat mengalami penurunan naiknya harga batubara, gas alam, dan minyak sawit (Gambar 1). Sebagai akibatnya, selama dua tahun penurunan tahun berjalan hingga bulan November menurun ke 2,5 persen dari 7 persen pada bulan September. Namun indeks itu masih 22 persen lebih rendah dari nilai puncaknya pada bulan Februari 2011, dengan harga-harga batubara (turun 40 persen), minyak sawit (turun 37 persen), dan tembaga (turun 27 persen) yang mencatat kemunduran drastis dari tingkat harganya pada tahun 2011. Bila tren peningkatan itu berlanjut, stabilisasi harga-harga komoditas yang baru dimulai itu dapat membantu memperlambat penurunan kondisi perdagangan Indonesia yang menjadi pendorong sebagian besar penurunan dalam neraca eksternalnya. Namun, prospek dasar (base line) yang hanya melihat peningkatan kondisi pertumbuhan dunia yang moderat selama tahun 2014, bersama-sama dengan kemungkinan pengetatan kondisi likuiditas global dan faktor-faktor sisi penawaran yang lebih struktural yang memberikan tekanan terhadap harga-harga, tidak memproyeksikan peningkatan besar dalam harga-harga komoditas. Selain itu, seperti dibahas pada IEQ edisi bulan Oktober 2013, kondisi perdagangan Indonesia masih menghadapi kenyataan bahwa harga minyak dunia, yang mempengaruhi jumlah impor BBM yang cukup besar bagi Indonesia, masih tetap relatif tinggi dibanding harga-harga komoditas bukan energi. Gambar 1: Harga komoditas ekspor utama menunjukkan Gambar 2: Biaya pinjaman di pasar global dan berkembang tanda-tanda stabilisasi, umumnya datar dibanding setahun tetap menunjukkan kecenderungan naik yang lalu (yield, persen) (indeks harga komoditas dolar AS, rata-rata 2007=100) Top 10 index Coal 300 Natural gas Palm oil 6 Obligasi AS 10- 16 Rubber Obligasi pasar berkembang dalam 14 5 dolar AS (RHS) 250 Obligasi Indonesia 12 4 dalam dolar AS (RHS) 10 200 3 8 150 6 2 4 100 1 2 50 0 0 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Catatan: Indeks 10 terbesar adalah indeks 10 komoditas ekspor Catatan: Imbal hasil (yield) obligasi pasar berkembang dan terpenting Indonesia dalam dolar AS, tertimbang menurut bagian Indonesia yang diukur oleh indeks EMBIG JP Morgan dan sub- dalam ekspor tahun 2012 indeks Indonesia Sumber: Bank Dunia Sumber: JP Morgan Namun ketidakpastian Sementara perkiraan adanya sedikit peningkatan dalam pertumbuhan global pada tahun 2014 kebijakan yang terus merupakan hal yang secara umum positif bagi Indonesia karena hal ini akan mendongkrak berlangsung permintaan ekspor secara keseluruhan, prospek internasional masih diliputi ketidakpastian membebani prospek kebijakan-kebijakan besar, yang mempertahankan tingginya risiko skenario pertumbuhan internasional… global yang lebih buruk. Di Eropa, tingginya tingkat pengangguran (12 persen di Zona Eropa), kesenjangan produksi (output gap) yang lebar, dan berlanjutnya kontraksi kredit mendorong risiko deflasi, sementara reformasi yang selama ini telah menyedot sumber daya dapat menyulitkan tercapainya reformasi yang dibutuhkan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan struktural. Hal ini akan menambah kerumitan pemulihan ekonomi. Di Asia, laju dan bagaimana penerapan upaya reformasi struktural yang ambisius di Cina dan Jepang, dan pemilu di India, akan mempengaruhi prospek. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 2 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia …dan pembiayaan Di atas semua itu, dampak terhadap pasar keuangan dunia dan pada akhirnya ekonomi riil, eksternal dan kondisi dan waktu, dari penghapusan bertahap program pembelian aset Bank Sentral AS (yang pasar masih disebut sebagai “tapering”) masih tidak pasti, yang menjadikan risiko gejolak pasar menantang internasional dan kondisi pembiayaan eksternal yang lebih sulit menjadi perhatian utama. Yield AS tetap lebih tinggi dibanding sebelum rencana penghapusan pada bulan Mei, dengan yield obligasi Pemerintah AS 10-tahunan sebesar 2,9 persen pada 11 Desember, naik dari 1,6 persen pada bulan April. Biaya pinjaman surat berharga negara dalam dolar AS untuk pasar- pasar berkembang telah meningkat rata-rata sekitar 160 basis poin pada tahun 2013 (seperti diukur melalui yield campuran dari JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index). Dengan upaya Bank Sentral AS untuk melakukan normalisasi kebijakan moneter, kemungkinan naiknya tekanan pada biaya pinjaman global untuk jangka yang lebih panjang, seiring dengan terjadinya sejumlah gejolak pasar seperti yang terjadi pada upaya penghapusan pada bulan Mei-Agustus, akan tetap menjadi perhatian. Dengan demikian, pasar-pasar berkembang, termasuk Indonesia, menghadapi pengetatan kondisi likuiditas global, yang memberikan tekanan naik terhadap beban pembiayaan eksternal mereka dan berpotensi mempersulit kebergantungan kepada aliran masuk investasi portofolio bersih untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pembiayaan eksternal. 2. Walau konsumsi kuat, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat Pertumbuhan ekonomi Pengetatan kondisi pembiayaan eksternal, yang dimulai pada bulan Mei, telah menambah Indonesia melanjutkan transmisi bertahap dari rendahnya harga-harga komoditas sejak tahun 2011, yang mendorong perlambatannya pada sejumlah penyesuaian ekonomi dan kebijakan yang penting di Indonesia, dan membebani triwulan 3… pertumbuhan. Laju ekspansi ekonomi Indonesia telah melambat, suatu tren yang oleh Bank Dunia diperkirakan akan berlanjut setidaknya hingga masa awal tahun 2014. PDB riil pada triwulan ketiga meningkat 5,6 persen tahun-ke-tahun (yoy), yang menandai perlemahan pertumbuhan selama lima triwulan berturut-turut secara tahun-ke-tahun, yang turun dari nilai tingginya sebesar 6,4 persen pada triwulan kedua tahun 2012 (Gambar 3). Secara berurutan, pertumbuhan pada triwulan ketiga melambat ke 5,0 persen triwulan-ke-triwulan dengan penyesuaian musiman (qoq saar), turun dari 5,5 persen pada dua triwulan yang lalu dan nilai tingginya sebesar 6,6 persen pada triwulan keempat 2012. Berlawanan dengan PDB riil, pertumbuhan PDB nominal meningkat tajam, ke 12,1 persen yoy pada triwulan 3 dari 8,2 persen yoy pada triwulan 2, yang mencerminkan peningkatan dalam pertumbuhan deflator PDB—pengukuran harga-harga yang paling luas dalam ekonomi—yang sebelumnya telah jatuh ke tingkat yang sangat rendah. Hal ini sejalan dengan peningkatan tajam dalam harga konsumen pasca kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni (Gambar 4), dan tampaknya juga mencerminkan lebih tingginya harga impor yang berasal dari depresiasi Rupiah. …terutama Pendorong utama moderasi pertumbuhan pada triwulan ketiga adalah investasi tetap, yang mencerminkan sedikit meningkat sebesar 2,6 persen triwulan-ke-triwulan dengan penyesuaian musiman (qoq pertumbuhan investasi saar) menjadi 4,5 persen lebih tinggi yoy. Pertumbuhan investasi, walau bergejolak lintas yang lemah… triwulanan, telah mencatat tren penurunan sejak nilai puncaknya sebesar 12,5 persen yoy pada triwulan kedua tahun 2012 (Gambar 5). Investasi bangunan, yang merupakan 85 persen dari jumlah nominal belanja investasi tetap, tetap kokoh, dan bahkan meningkat pesat sebesar 9,5 persen (qoq saar) pada triwulan ketiga. Perlambatan dalam investasi secara keseluruhan telah didorong oleh komponen-komponen belanja investasi yang lebih kecil namun lebih bergejolak. Belanja untuk barang-barang mesin, peralatan, dan transportasi dari luar negeri (yang membentuk sebagian besar dari investasi tetap bukan bangunan) hampir datar pada triwulan ketiga dibanding triwulan kedua, sehingga gerakannya jauh di bawah tingkatan setahun yang lalu (dengan barang permesinan dan peralatan luar negeri turun sebesar masing-masing 0,5 persen dan 8,4 persen yoy). Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 3 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 3: Pertumbuhan PDB riil mengalami perlambatan, Gambar 4: …walau pertumbuhan PDB nominal naik tajam turun ke 5,6 persen yoy dan 5,0 qoq saar pada triwulan 3… pada triwulan 3 berkat peningkatan harga secara luas (pertumbuhan PDB riil, persen) (pertumbuhan yoy, persen) 9 30 PDB nominal Triwulan ke 8 yoy triwulan saar 7 20 6 5 10 Deflator PDB 4 3 0 Indeks Harga 2 Konsumen 1 -10 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 0 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia …yang memberikan Permintaan bagi permesinan dan peralatan yang mendatar atau berkontraksi, pada gilirannya, tekanan pada impor, telah membatasi impor. Volume impor mencatat kontraksi tajam pada triwulan ketiga, sementara volume sebesar 3,0 persen, dari triwulan kedua secara penyesuaian musiman. Volume ekspor hanya ekspor tetap lemah sedikit berubah dari triwulan kedua (menurun sebesar 0,8 persen dengan penyesuaian musiman). Secara keseluruhan, ekspor bersih memberi tambahan yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan produksi (output) pada triwulan ketiga. Gambar 5: Pertumbuhan investasi telah melambat secara Gambar 6: …dengan hanya investasi pergedungan signifikan sementara pertumbuhan konsumsi tetap kuat… mendorong positifnya keseluruhan pertumbuhan investasi (pertumbuhan pengeluaran dan PDB riil yoy, persen) (kontribusi pada pertumbuhan investasi keseluruhan yoy, persen) Building Machinery 14 Private cons. Gov cons. 14 Transportation Other 12 Investment Net Exports 12 Total Discrepancy GDP 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sebaliknya, Konsumsi swasta, yang merupakan sekitar 55 persen dari jumlah pengeluaran, meningkat pertumbuhan semakin kuat pada triwulan ketiga, sebesar 6,9 persen qoq saar menjadi 5,5 persen yoy, walau konsumsi tetap dengan peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni dan kebijakan pengetatan bertahan kuat moneter, serta gejolak pasar keuangan dan depresiasi valuta yang terjadi selama triwulan itu. Ketahanan belanja rumah tangga ini sebagian mencerminkan dampak positif dari paket kompensasi Pemerintah sebesar 30 triliun rupiah yang mengikuti peningkatan harga BBM (yang mulai dicairkan pada triwulan ketiga, seperti dibahas lebih lanjut pada bagian B.1, dan dibandingkan dengan perkiraan peningkatan konsumsi selama triwulan itu sebesar 111 triliun Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 4 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia rupiah). Alasan-alasan lain tampaknya termasuk jeda waktu dalam transmisi kebijakan moneter ke ekonomi riil, yang konsisten dengan laju ekspansi kredit yang masih cepat yang tercatat hingga bulan September, dampak tertunda dari pergerakan harga aset yang tercatat selama triwulan itu (yang telah meningkatkan beban pembiayaan dan impor) terhadap harga- harga dalam negeri, dan keterkaitan jangka pendek yang relatif terbatas antara harga aset dan belanja konsumen (yaitu dengan hanya sedikitnya efek kekayaan). Sektor konstruksi tetap Pada sisi produksi, penurunan pertumbuhan bersifat luas lintas sektor pada triwulan ketiga, kuat pada triwulan 3, namun sebagian besar terpusat pada manufaktur dan perdagangan, hotel dan rumah makan. dan sektor jasa terus Sektor konstruksi tumbuh sebesar 5,9 persen qoq saar menjadi 6,2 persen yoy; laju yang sedikit mendorong lebih lambat dibanding triwulan kedua namun secara umum tetap konsisten dengan pesatnya pertumbuhan laju investasi pergedungan yang disinggung di atas. Pertumbuhan sektor jasa secara umum tetap kuat, pada 6,3 persen qoq saar (naik 7,3 persen yoy), namun moderasi pada sub-sektor jasa yang terbesar—perdagangan, hotel, dan rumah makan—telah tercatat, dengan pertumbuhan produksi (output) yang melambat menjadi 2,8 persen qoq saar, sehingga peningkatan produksi pada triwulan tiga menjadi 6,0 persen yoy, dibanding kenaikan 6,5 persen yoy pada paruh pertama tahun 2013. Pertumbuhan produksi industri, di luar pertambangan, menurun ke 2,4 persen qoq saar (3,8 persen yoy). Produksi pertambangan bergerak mendatar dibanding triwulan kedua menurut penyesuaian musiman, dengan peningkatan produksi sebesar 1,6 persen yoy, namun hal ini menutupi tren yang berbeda pada dua sub-sektor utama pertambangan: produksi minyak mentah dan gas alam masih tetap lemah (turun 3,0 persen yoy), sementara produksi non-migas meningkat, naik sebesar 3,2 persen qoq saar, yang secara potensial mencerminkan peningkatan produksi menjelang penerapan larangan ekspor mineral mentah pada bulan Januari 2014 (lihat Kotak 1). Tren indikator Indikator kegiatan ekonomi Gambar 7: Tren indikator frekuensi tinggi bercampur berfrekuensi tinggi namun di bawah nilai tingginya yang pernah tercatat frekuensi tinggi bercampur, namun menunjukkan bahwa sentimen (Indeks penjualan ritel BI, volume penjualan kendaraan dan semen, 3mma konsumen tetap berada di yoy, persen) secara keseluruhan konsisten dengan laju bawah nilai tinggi yang tercatat 50 Kendaraan bermotor pertumbuhan pada paruh pertama tahun permintaan dalam 2013 (yaitu sebelum kenaikan 40 negeri melambat… harga BBM bersubsidi bulan Juni), walau sentimen itu tidak 30 Semen berada dalam tren penurunan 20 berkelanjutan. Survei BI mencatat peningkatan 10 Penjualan ritel penjualan ritel menjadi 12,1 persen yoy pada bulan 0 November, namun laju -10 Sepeda motor pertumbuhannya tetap di bawah nilai tingginya pada -20 triwulan akhir 2012 pada sekitar 17 persen yoy. -30 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 Pertumbuhan penjualan kendaraan juga melambat Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia relatif dibanding nilai tingginya pada tahun 2012 dan awal 2013, sementara penjualan sepeda motor tetap tinggi sejak hari raya Idul Fitri, namun dengan momentum yang menurun. Pada sisi produksi, penjualan semen pada periode dua bulan setelah Ramadan (yaitu bulan September dan Oktober) meningkat sebesar 12,9 persen yoy, sekitar setengah dari pertumbuhan di atas 21 persen yoy yang tercatat pada awal tahun 2013 (Gambar 7). Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dari HSBC untuk sektor manufaktur Indonesia menunjukkan kondisi perkembangan yang tipis, pada angka 50,3 untuk bulan November. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 5 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia …dan pertumbuhan Bank Dunia memperkirakan pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia akan semakin melambat, menjadi produksi (output) 5,3 persen untuk tahun 2014 menurut base case (Tabel 2). Permintaan dalam negeri diproyeksikan akan menghadapi keterbatasan tidak hanya dari kondisi pembiayaan yang lebih ketat, seperti semakin melambat dibahas lebih lanjut pada Bagian 5, namun juga keterbatasan yang secara potensial lebih berjangka panjang karena harga-harga komoditas dan kondisi perdagangan yang kurang mendukung dibanding tahun-tahun sebelumnya. Secara khusus, konsumsi swasta, andalan ekonomi Indonesia, sejauh ini tetap kokoh, namun tampaknya akan menerima lebih banyak tekanan, sehingga akan mengganggu pertumbuhan. Prospek investasi bergantung pada investasi pergedungan—yang tengah dihadapkan pada kredit yang lebih ketat, penurunan dana yang dapat diinvestasikan dari laba yang berkaitan dengan komoditas, dan peningkatan biaya impor (seperti dibahas pada Bagian 4)—yang tampaknya juga akan melambat. Belanja yang berkaitan dengan pemilu pada tahun 2014 tampaknya akan menambah permintaan dalam negeri secara material, karena kegiatan yang berkaitan dengan kampanye akan meningkatkan konsumsi swasta, walau hanya sementara, dan sebagian darinya dapat tergantikan dengan belanja lainnya. Secara keseluruhan, risiko-risiko terhadap prospek pertumbuhan condong kepada penurunan, seperti dibahas pada Bagian 7. Tabel 2: Menurut skenario dasar (baseline) PDB diproyeksikan tumbuh 5,6 persen untuk 2013 dan 5,3 persen untuk 2014 (persentase perubahan, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Triwulan tahunan ke Tahunan Desember Revisi tahunan 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 1. Indikator ekonomi utama Jumlah pengeluaran konsumsi 4,8 5,1 4,8 3,9 4,8 5,2 0,1 -0,2 Pengeluaran konsumsi swasta 5,3 5,1 4,9 5,4 4,4 5,2 0,2 -0,3 Konsumsi pemerintah 1,2 5,0 4,4 -3,3 7,0 5,0 -1,1 -0,1 Pembentukan modal tetap bruto 9,8 4,4 4,4 7,3 3,1 5,4 -0,9 -0,5 Ekspor barang dan jasa 2,0 4,4 5,4 0,5 3,8 7,0 -1,3 -0,3 Impor barang dan jasa 6,6 0,5 3,4 6,8 -1,9 4,0 -1,9 -1,2 Produk domestik bruto 6,2 5,6 5,3 6,1 5,1 5,4 0,0 0,0 Pertanian 4,0 3,7 2,7 2,0 5,3 2,6 0,3 0,3 Industri 5,2 4,5 4,2 5,4 3,8 4,4 0,1 0,2 Jasa-jasa 7,7 7,1 6,8 7,6 6,2 6,8 -0,2 -0,2 2. Indikator eksternal Neraca pembayaran (AS$ miliar) 0,2 -14,0 -12,8 n/a n/a n/a 1,4 -8,8 Saldo neraca transaksi berjalan (AS$ miliar) -24,4 -30,6 -22,8 n/a n/a n/a -1,4 -0,7 Neraca perdagangan (AS$ miliar -1,7 -9,1 -2,5 n/a n/a n/a -1,2 -1,5 Saldo neraca keuangan (AS$ miliar) 25,2 17,1 10,0 n/a n/a n/a 2 -8,1 3. Pengukuran ekonomi lainnya Indeks harga konsumen 4,3 7,0 6,1 4,4 8,6 5,1 -0,3 -0,6 IHK keranjang kemiskinan 6,5 7,8 6,7 5,4 9,7 5,2 0,6 0,4 Deflator PDB 4,6 4,4 6,4 2,7 6,6 5,8 1,8 2,2 PDB nominal 11,0 10,3 12,0 9,0 12,0 11,6 1,9 2,3 4. Asumsi ekonomi Kurs tukar (Rp/AS$) 9419 10600 11800 9630 11800 11800 200,0 400,0 Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (AS$/barel) 113 104 103 108 105 103 -1,9 -2,0 Pertumbuhan mitra dagang utama 3,4 3,4 3,9 3,1 4,0 4,0 0,0 0,0 Catatan: Proyeksi aliran perdagangan berkaitan dengan neraca nasional. Kurs tukar adalah asumsi dari rata-rata terakhir. Revisi relatif dibanding proyeksi pada IEQ edisi bulan Oktober 2013 Sumber: Kemenkeu; BPS; BI; CEIC; proyeksi Bank Dunia Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 6 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia 3. Inflasi IHK telah normal namun inflasi inti meningkat Inflasi di tingkat Harga-harga konsumen telah bergejolak selama tahun 2013, utamanya mencerminkan konsumen bergejolak pertama-tama dampak pembatasan perdagangan bahan pangan tertentu (yang kemudian selama tahun 2013… dilepaskan) dan dampak peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni. Namun demikian dampak langsung dari peningkatan harga BBM kini telah memudar dan penurunan inflasi bahan pangan telah terjadi pasca Idul Fitri, tekanan-tekanan inflasi yang mendasarinya (seperti diukur melalui IHK inti) telah meningkat secara signifikan sejak bulan Mei. Ke depannya, tantangan kebijakan moneter adalah untuk mengukur risiko berjalan tentang pengaruh yang lebih tinggi dari kurs tukar valuta terhadap harga-harga konsumen (yang sering disebut sebagai “inflasi impor”), dan perkiraan peningkatan harga, yang secara luas diimbangi dengan perkiraan moderasi berkelanjutan dalam permintaan dalam negeri. …namun momentum Harga-harga konsumen sebagaimana diukur melalui indeks harga konsumen (IHK) inflasi IHK telah meningkat sebesar 5,5 persen dari Juni hingga Agustus, terutama karena peningkatan rata- melemah karena rata sebesar 33 persen dalam harga BBM bersubsidi mulai tanggal 22 Juni, dan juga dampak pudarnya pengaruh musiman bulan Ramadan, yang jatuh pada bulan Juli/Agustus 2013. Kenaikan tingkat harga kenaikan BBM yang tiba-tiba ini telah mendorong peningkatan harga hingga inflasi tahun-ke-tahun menjadi bersubsidi dan bulan 8,4 persen pada bulan November. Namun momentum inflasi IHK telah berkurang sejak Ramadan… bulan Agustus, dengan IHK umumnya mendatar secara bulan-ke-bulan selama periode tersebut, karena peningkatan harga yang berkaitan dengan transportasi telah mendatar dan harga bahan pangan telah kembali turun secara signifikan dari peningkatan yang berkaitan dengan bulan Ramadan pada pertengahan tahun (Gambar 9). …dengan deflasi harga Harga bahan pangan dalam Gambar 8: Harga sejumlah bahan pangan utama mulai bahan pangan telah negeri di Indonesia mencatat stabil setelah tahun yang bergejolak terjadi pasca gejolak pergerakan yang bergejolak (indeks harga, rata-rata November 2012=100) harga sejumlah bahan selama tahun 2013, naik pada 450 pangan utama selama awal tahun karena pembatasan Ramadan 400 tahun 2013 perdagangan yang mendorong Bawang kenaikan harga yang signifikan 350 untuk bahan-bahan seperti 300 bawang bombai, cabai dan Cabai bawang putih. Pelonggaran 250 peraturan pembatasan itu, 200 yang kemudian dilakukan, Daging 150 memberikan sejumlah Sapi Telur keringanan harga pada 100 triwulan kedua, sebelum 50 Kacang kedelai Bawang putih dampak musiman dari Ramadan pada bulan 0 Juli/Agustus kembali Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 membawa tekanan naik bagi Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia sebagian besar harga bahan pangan (Gambar 8). Dibantu dengan penurunan banyak harga bahan pangan musiman pasca bulan Ramadan, deflasi harga bahan pangan secara keseluruhan bulan-ke-bulan selama tiga bulan berturut-turut hingga bulan November telah menurunkan inflasi harga bahan pangan mentah dari puncaknya sebesar 15,1 persen yoy pada bulan Agustus, menjadi 12,2 persen pada bulan November. D e s em b e r 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 7 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Harga beras telah Harga beras dalam negeri, komponen utama dari keranjang konsumsi rumah tangga miskin sedikit naik, walau di Indonesia, meningkat sebesar 5,1 persen yoy pada bulan November. Peningkatan yang tetap berada cukup relatif kecil ini disebabkan oleh produksi yang relatif baik. Perkiraan resmi peningkatan tinggi di atas harga produksi beras Indonesia untuk tahun 2013 adalah sebesar 2,6 persen setelah panen terakhir internasional tahun itu, menjadi 70,87 juta ton (44,6 juta ton setelah digiling), terutama mencerminkan peningkatan lahan, karena hasil panen diperkirakan tetap setara dengan catatan hasil panen yang tinggi pada tahun 2012 sebesar 5,1 ton per hektar. Sedikitnya peningkatan dalam harga beras dalam negeri juga berkontribusi dalam semakin kecilnya selisih harga beras di Indonesia dan jenis yang setara di pasar internasional (dari Thailand atau Vietnam). Catatan rekor harga beras di Indonesia adalah 90-110 persen lebih tinggi (bergantung pada kualitas) dibanding harga internasional pada bulan Juni, dan perbedaan itu turun menjadi 50-60 persen lebih tinggi pada bulan November. Penurunan selisih harga beras antara Indonesia dan pasar internasional juga didorong oleh peningkatan dalam harga beras internasional dalam denominasi Rupiah (termasuk peningkatan masing-masing sebesar 8 persen dan 29 persen untuk beras kualitas menengah dari Vietnam dalam dolar AS dan dalam Rupiah). Namun kenaikan Walau tidak adanya kenaikan dalam IHK merupakan indikasi yang menggembirakan bahwa inflasi inti, secara keseluruhan tekanan harga konsumen tetap terkendali, pola inflasi inti yang menunjukkan bahwa belakangan terjadi—yang tidak menyertakan barang-barang volatil seperti bahan pangan dan masih dibutuhkan BBM—menuntut kehati-hatian kita (Gambar 10). IHK inti meningkat sebesar 4,8 persen yoy kehati-hatian terhadap pada bulan November, catatan bulanan tertingginya sejak bulan September 2011, dan risiko inflasi… peningkatannya, sebesar 7,7 persen laju yang disetahunkan dari September ke November selama tiga bulan terakhir, merupakan laju yang cukup signifikan. Gambar 9: Deflasi bahan pangan musiman dan pudarnya Gambar 10: …namun tren inflasi inti telah meningkat secara kenaikan harga transportasi telah menekan inflasi IHK signifikan turun… (perubahan 3-bulan/3-bulan yang disetahunkan, persen) (komposisi peningkatan inflasi IHK bulanan, poin persentase) 3.5 Other items 20 Headline 3.0 Housing & related 2.5 15 Transport, communication and finance 2.0 Food 10 1.5 Inti 1.0 5 0.5 0.0 0 -0.5 -1.0 -5 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia …terutama terkait Salah satu sumber tekanan kenaikan inflasi inti sejak bulan Mei tampaknya adalah depresiasi dengan tekanan Rupiah yang, walau secara umum mendukung penyesuaian ekonomi Indonesia terhadap pendorong biaya (cost keterbatasan eksternal, juga mendorong tekanan inflasi yang diakibatkan biaya melalui harga push) dari perlemahan barang-barang impor. Dengan depresiasi Rupiah yang cukup signifikan sebesar 24 persen Rupiah selama tahun berjalan, peningkatan inflasi inti sejauh ini masih relatif kecil. Namun, dengan tidak adanya kontrafakta, perlu dipahami bahwa inflasi mungkin bisa lebih rendah lagi bila tidak ada depresiasi Rupiah. Perlemahan Rupiah tampaknya juga akan terus mendorong terjadinya inflasi dengan jeda waktu, karena importir dapat menyerap beban impor yang lebih tinggi selama jangka waktu tertentu demi menjaga pangsa pasar, namun kemudian mengalihkan beban peningkatan itu sebagai akibat dari terus terkikisnya keuntungan. Selain itu, dengan sebagian besar penyesuaian Rupiah sejauh ini hanya terjadi sejak bulan Agustus, Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 8 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia masih terlalu dini untuk mengetahui apakah depresiasi Rupiah akan mempengaruhi inflasi. Berdasarkan pengalaman, depresiasi Rupiah sebesar 10 persen diperkirakan akan menambah sekitar 0,5 poin persentase terhadap inflasi pada suatu triwulan tertentu. Pada skenario dasar , Pada skenario dasar (base case), tekanan inflasi diperkirakan akan tetap terkendali, sejalan inflasi IHK dengan prospek pertumbuhan yang lebih lemah, dengan inflasi IHK menurun secara diperkirakan akan bertahap melalui triwulan kedua 2014 ke kisaran 7,5 persen. Inflasi IHK lalu diperkirakan tetap di bawah nilai akan turun dengan tajam karena dampak dari perubahan harga BBM pada bulan Juni 2013 puncaknya, namun mengubah jatuhnya dasar perhitungan triwulan ketiga 2014, mengikuti IHK yang akan tekanan inflasi inti kembali berada di bawah plafon angka sasaran BI pada 3,5-5,5 persen yoy. Namun, inflasi inti tetap meningkat pada diperkirakan akan terdorong naik pada beberapa bulan ke depan (menjadi sekitar 5,5 persen paruh pertama tahun pada triwulan pertama tahun 2014) karena kurs tukar dan kenaikan upah, termasuk dampak 2014 dari upah minimum yang baru untuk tahun 2014 (termasuk peningkatan sebesar 11 persen yang disetujui untuk DKI Jakarta). Risiko terhadap perkiraan inflasi skenario dasar (base case) adalah seimbang, dengan prospek tergantung pada pengaruh dari depresiasi Rupiah, penetapan upah minimum tahun 2014, dan faktor-faktor sementara seperti peningkatan belanja pemilu pada triwulan pertama 2014, dibandingkan dengan tren pertumbuhan permintaan dalam negeri yang lebih lemah dan lebih ketatnya kondisi keuangan. 4. Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia masih menjadi fokus, walau impor melemah Tekanan neraca Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia menunjukkan tanda-tanda menuju kestabilan pada pembayaran tetap triwulan ketiga, tetapi posisi 8,4 miliar dolar AS defisit itu masih cukup jauh berada di atas penting terhadap investasi langsung bersih sebesar 5,1 miliar dolar AS, meninjjukan defisit “neraca dasar” yang prospek ekonomi signifikan (sebesar 3,3 miliar dolar AS pada tirwulan ketiga). Selisih ini menyoroti Indonesia berlanjutnya ketergantungan Indonesia terhadap aliran masuk investasi portofolio yang berpotensi untuk berubah arah dengan mudah, suatu potensi kerentanan yang tampaknya tetap menjadi fokus utama bagi para pembuat kebijakan dan investor. Selain itu, walau beban hutang luar negeri Indonesia secara keseluruhan tidak besar, pembayaran kembali hutang luar negeri berjumlah signifikan, menambah risiko valuta dan pembiayaan kembali yang dihadapi oleh Pemerintah dan sektor korporat dalam konteks ketidakpastian yang masih terus berlangsung di pasar keuangan internasional. Pada skenario dasar (base case), saldo neraca transaksi berjalan diperkirakan akan menyusut selama tahun 2014, namun kemungkinan adanya perbaikan sedikit meningkat, dan biaya ekonomi dari penyusutan impor, menuntut adanya keberlanjutan fokus kebijakan kepada peningkatan kinerja ekspor dan mendukung investasi asing langsung (foreign, direct investment, FDI) sebagai sumber pembiayaan eksternal yang berkualitas tinggi. Defisit neraca berjalan Pada triwulan ketiga tahun 2013, defisit neraca berjalan mencapai 8,4 miliar dolar AS, atau Indonesia menyempit 3,8 persen dari PDB (Gambar 11), lebih rendah dari defisit 10 miliar dolar AS atau 4,4 persen menjadi 3,8 persen dari dari PDB yang tercatat pada triwulan kedua. Indikasi awal untuk triwulan terakhir tahun 2013 PDB pada triwulan 3 adalah bahwa penyempitan bertahap ini akan terus berlanjut, dengan kembalinya neraca dari 4,4 persen pada perdagangan barang bulanan ke surplus kecil (42 juta dolar AS) pada bulan Oktober, seperti triwulan 2 diukur oleh BPS, walau dengan pergerakan yang begejolak. Ekspor non-migas Neraca perdagangan barang non-migas kembali mencatat surplus pada bulan Agustus setelah mencatat penerimaan mengalami defisit selama empat bulan berturut-turut, dan tetap bertahan positif pada bulan yang melemah pada Oktober (Gambar 12). Ekspor non-migas melambat selama triwulan ketiga, yang sebagian triwulan 3 namun mencerminkan semakin melemahnya harga-harga komoditas ekspor utama di dunia pada menunjukkan tanda- awal triwulan itu, dan dampak perlemahan liburan Idul Fitri terhadap ekspor. Dalam hal tanda peningkatan ekspor non-migas, penerimaan ekspor manufaktur turun sebesar 2,8 persen dibanding memasuki triwulan 4… penerimaan pada triwulan ketiga tahun 2012, sementara penerimaan ekspor non-manufaktur (termasuk seluruh komoditas utama non-migas) turun sebesar 8,1 persen dibanding triwulan ketiga tahun 2012. Indikasi-indikasi awal kinerja ekspor pada triwulan keempat cukup baik, dengan penguatan ekspor lintas wilayah, dan penerimaan ekspor non-migas Indonesia meningkat sebesar 2,5 persen yoy pada bulan Oktober, yang sepertinya terbantu dengan Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 9 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia peningkatan permintaan dari para mitra perdagangan utama seperti AS dan Cina. Seperti dibahas pada Bagian 2, volume ekspor secara umum tampaknya juga tetap bertahan sesuai dengan data triwulan ketiga terakhir yang tersedia, dengan peningkatan sebesar 5,3 persen yoy, yang menunjukkan pengaruh penurunan penerimaan ekspor dari rendahnya harga-harga dan mengisyaratkan kemungkinan kembali naiknya penerimaan ekspor pada triwulan- triwulan mendatang bila harga komoditas menjadi stabil dan permintaan luar negeri terus meningkat tipis. Namun, terdapat risiko yang signifikan terhadap ekspor, yang berasal dari perdebatan akan pembatasan ekspor bahan mineral mentah, yang dibahas pada Kotak 1. …sementara defisit Sebagian besar perlemahan pada keseluruhan neraca berjalan Indonesia sejak akhir tahun perdagangan migas 2011 disebabkan oleh jatuhnya surplus perdagangan non-migas, yang umumnya didorong tampaknya relatif tidak oleh penurunan harga-harga komoditas ekspor. Namun, neraca perdagangan migas bulanan terpengaruh oleh Indonesia juga menjadi beban besar terhadap keseluruhan neraca perdagangan, dan telah peningkatan harga menjadi defisit sejak bulan Agustus 2012. Defisit perdagangan migas mencapai 2,4 miliar BBM bersubsidi dolar AS pada triwulan kedua dan meningkat ke 3,9 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan ketiga, yang diperbesar oleh peningkatan permintaan BBM terkait dengan musim liburan, namun juga menunjukkan bahwa permintaan impor minyak telah relatif tidak sensitif terhadap peningkatan tajam harga BBM bersubsidi yang dilaksanakan pada bulan Juni. Data bulanan selanjutnya, untuk bulan Oktober, memang menunjukkan penurunan yang signifikan dalam impor migas—dengan defisit migas menyusut sebesar 50 persen bulan-ke-bulan ke 750 juta dolar AS—namun mengingat volatilitas data bulanan, informasi ini tidak cukup untuk mengukur seberapa signifikan pengaruh dari dorongan impor BBM ini. Gambar 11: Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan mencapai Gambar 12: …yang dibantu dengan kembalinya neraca kestabilan pada 8,4 miliar dolar AS di triwulan 3… perdagangan non-migas ke surplus sejak bulan Agustus (saldo neraca, miliar dolar AS) (saldo neraca, miliar dolar AS) Current transfers Income balance Non-O&G imports Services trade balance Goods trade balance O&G imports Non-O&G exports Current account balance O&G exports 15 Non-O&G trade balance (RHS) O&G trade balance (RHS) 10 20 4 5 10 2 0 0 0 -5 -10 -10 -2 -15 -20 -4 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sumber: CEIC; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Catatan: O&G: migas Sumber: CEIC; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Penyusutan impor kini Dengan moderasi pertumbuhan riil dan depresiasi yang dialami Rupiah, perlambatan impor tampak jelas, mendukung neraca perdagangan dan penyusutan bertahap dalam keseluruhan neraca meringankan berjalan. Barang-barang modal mencatat penurunan 20 persen yoy pada bulan Oktober (dan perdagangan dan turun 16 persen secara rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan, yoy), sejalan dengan lemahnya belanja keseluruhan neraca untuk permesinan dan peralatan seperti diuraikan pada Bagian 2. Impor bahan-bahan transaksi berjalan… setengah jadi, di luar migas, turun sebesar 4,1 persen yoy pada bulan Oktober, secara rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan. Impor barang konsumsi hanya merupakan bagian impor yang kecil (7 persen dari seluruh beban impor, selama 12 tahun hingga bulan Oktober) namun telah mendatar sejak bulan Agustus pada tingkat yang serupa dengan satu tahun yang lalu. Impor migas merupakan satu-satunya kelompok impor utama yang tetap bertahan tinggi selama triwulan ketiga, namun, seperti disinggung di atas, nilainya pun mencatat perlambatan yang signifikan pada bulan Oktober (Gambar 13). Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 10 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 13: Perlemahan impor didorong oleh kontraksi Gambar 14: Manufaktur dan konstruksi menyerap hampir 70 barang-barang modal persen dari impor Indonesia (pertumbuhan rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan komponen impor yoy, persen) (alokasi sektoral nominal impor secara riil, persen) 80 Manufacturing industries Construction 60 Barang konsumsi Services 40 Transport & com. Bahan setengah jadi Migas Trade, hotel & restaurant 20 Agriculture 0 Jumlah Financial & bus. Services -20 impor Mining & quarrying Barang modal Utilities -40 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 0 10 20 30 40 50 Catatan: Bahan setengah jadi tidak termasuk migas Sumber: database World Input-Output 2011; Perhitungan staf Sumber: BPS; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Bank Dunia …dan dapat terus Sektor-sektor ekonomi yang paling banyak menggunakan impor adalah manufaktur dan berlanjut, namun konstruksi (Gambar 14) yang bersama-sama menyerap hampir 70 persen jumlah impor. Tiga dengan biaya yang per empat dari jumlah itu—atau setengah dari jumlah impor—merupakan bahan setengah nyata terhadap jadi dari manufaktur asing. Selain itu, sekitar 50 persen dari impor manufaktur bagi sektor- ekonomi sektor yang paling banyak melakukan impor terdiri dari bahan-bahan khusus bagi produksi, terutama produk-produk kimia dan logam, serta peralatan. Karenanya, moderasi yang diperkirakan terus berlanjut dalam pertumbuhan manufaktur dan konstruksi ke tahun 2014 tampaknya akan membantu melanjutkan penurunan beban impor (Gambar 14), namun juga dapat membawa implikasi bagi lapangan kerja dan penerimaan dari sektor-sektor tersebut. Selain itu, seperti diuraikan pada IEQ edisi bulan Maret 2013, terdapat komponen input impor yang cukup besar yang digunakan dalam produksi ekspor non-komoditas Indonesia. Lebih tingginya biaya input-yang-diimpor-ke-produksi—karena depresiasi Rupiah yang terus berlangsung atau kebijakan-kebijakan lain yang bertujuan untuk menekan impor—dengan demikian juga berpotensi untuk membebani daya saing ekspor, yang mengurangi nilai sejumlah manfaat dari depresiasi kurs tukar riil. Dengan penyesuaian Secara keseluruhan, tanda-tanda menunjukkan bahwa neraca perdagangan Indonesia sedang neraca perdagangan bergeser menuju kestabilan dan mulai memperkecil defisit neraca berjalan secara terus berlanjut, keseluruhan. Seperti disinggung di atas, volume ekspor barang-barang dan jasa triwulanan, sorotan terhadap seperti diukur oleh neraca nasional, tetap bertahan, dan penerimaan ekspor barang seperti kerentanan diukur oleh data perdagangan BPS bulanan untuk pertama kali telah meningkat secara tahun- pembiayaan eksternal ke-tahun pada bulan Oktober sejak bulan Maret 2012 (walau hanya tipis sebesar 2,6 persen). Indonesia tampaknya Penyusutan impor telah terlihat, seperti diuraikan di atas, dan bahkan defisit perdagangan akan tetap bertahan migas yang telah terjadi sejak bulan Agustus 2012 memperlihatkan sejumlah tanda-tanda penyempitan. Walau baik untuk mengembalikan neraca eksternal Indonesia ke posisi yang berkelanjutan, namun tetap ada harga yang harus dibayar dari penyusutan impor tersebut, sementara laju peningkatan sejauh ini masih berlangsung perlahan. Hal ini berarti kerentanan pembiayaan eksternal tetap akan menjadi soroton untuk sementara waktu. Aliran masuk neraca Beralih ke sisi neraca keuangan pada neraca pembayaran, neraca modal dan keuangan keuangan menurun Indonesia mencatat surplus sebesar 4,9 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan ketiga, menyempit dari pada triwulan ketiga 8,4 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan kedua, yang mencerminkan perlemahan dalam aliran masuk dengan aliran masuk modal investasi portofolio dan aliran keluar modal investasi lainnya, walau dengan portofolio bersih peningkatan dalam aliran masuk FDI bersih. Aliran masuk modal portofolio bersih melemah dan aliran melambat ke 1,8 miliar dolar AS (dari 3,4 miliar dolar AS pada triwulan kedua), yang valuta dan tabungan didorong oleh aliran masuk modal bersih ke sekuritas hutang dan ekuitas—hal yang juga menjadi negatif… dialami oleh pasar-pasar ekonomi berkembang utama lainnya—dan sebagian mencerminkan Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 11 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia ketidakpastian selama triwulan itu terkait dengan waktu dan laju tapering oleh Bank Sentral AS. Lebih lemahnya penerbitan obligasi luar negeri pada triwulan ketiga juga memainkan peran. Investasi lain mencatat jumlah defisit sebesar 2,1 miliar dolar AS umumnya karena aliran keluar valuta dan tabungan. Hal ini membalik surplus yang tercatat pada triwulan kedua, yang berasal dari gabungan aliran masuk valuta dolar AS musiman yang bertujuan untuk melayani permintaan korporat musiman akan valuta dolar AS. …membuat Indonesia Investasi langsung bersih mencatat surplus sebesar 5,1 miliar dolar AS (dari 3,8 miliar dolar semakin bergantung AS), yang mencerminkan aliran masuk investasi langsung ke dalam negeri sebesar 5,4 miliar kepada dukungan dolar AS bersama-sama perlemahan investasi langsung ke luar negeri menjadi 0,3 miliar dolar aliran masuk FDI AS. Aliran FDI ke instrumen hutang pada triwulan ketiga tahun 2013 mencapai nilai tertingginya sejak triwulan akhir tahun 2011. Aliran FDI pada triwulan ketiga 2013 itu mencapai 1,9 miliar dolar AS, naik dari 453 juta dolar AS pada triwulan kedua. Aliran FDI ke ekuitas, di sisi lain, turun sebesar 17 persen ke 3,5 miliar dolar AS dibanding triwulan kedua. Secara keseluruhan, aliran modal investasi langsung tampaknya tetap bertahan di tengah perlemahan harga-harga komoditas global pada beberapa triwulan terakhir dan peningkatan ketidakpastian peraturan perundangan pada sektor-sektor utama bagi investasi dalam negeri, terutama pertambangan. Namun, aliran masuk itu dapat besar dan tidak merata (lumpy) dan bergantung pada keputusan jangka panjang yang terpengaruh oleh lingkungan kebijakan, yang memiliki risiko-risiko seperti diuraikan pada Bagian 7. Gambar 15: Investasi portofolio yang lebih melemah Tabel 3: Berlanjutnya defisit neraca transaksi berjalan memperkecil surplus neraca modal dan finansial pada menjadikan sorotan terhadap kebutuhan untuk mendukung triwulan 3 dibanding triwulan 2… FDI (saldo neraca, miliar dolar AS) (miliar dolar AS) 16 2011 2012 2013 2014 Keseluruhan neraca Neraca pembayaran Modal lain 12 bersih Portofolio keseluruhan 11,9 0,2 -14,0 -12,8 bersih Sebagai % dari PDB 1,4 0,0 -1,6 -1,5 8 Neraca berjalan 1,7 -24,4 -30,6 -22,8 Sebagai % dari PDB 0,2 -2,8 -3,5 -2,6 4 Perdagangan 24,2 -1,7 -9,1 -2,5 Penerimaan -26,7 -26,8 -25,8 -24,6 0 Transfer 4,2 4,1 4,2 4,3 Neraca modal & -4 Investasi keuangan 13,6 25,2 17,1 10,0 langsung Sebagai % dari PDB 1,6 2,9 2,0 1,2 -8 bersih Neraca Inv. langsung 11,5 14,0 16,5 13,2 dasar Neraca Inv. portofolio 3,8 9,2 9,9 3,1 -12 berjalan Inv. lainnya -1,8 1,9 -9,4 -6,3 Catatan: -16 Neraca dasar 13,2 -10,4 -14,1 -9,6 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sebagai % dari PDB 1,6 -1,2 -1,6 -1,1 Sumber: CEIC; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Catatan: Neraca dasar = saldo neraca transaksi berjalan + FDI bersih Sumber: CEIC; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 12 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Defisit neraca transaksi Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan diproyeksikan akan mencapai 3,5 persen dari PDB atau berjalan diproyeksikan sebesar 30,6 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2013 secara keseluruhan, akibat penyempitan defisit akan menyempit neraca transaksi berjalan pada triwulan terakhir ke sekitar 6,4 miliar dolar AS (atau 3,2 persen menjadi 2,6 persen dari dari PDB). Pada tahun 2014, defisit neraca transaksi berjalan diproyeksikan akan tetap PDB pada tahun 2014 bertahan, walau menyusut menjadi 22,8 miliar dolar AS (2,6 persen dari PDB), yang didukung oleh lemahnya pertumbuhan impor dan peningkatan tipis dalam permintaan ekspor (Tabel 3). Namun, skenario dasar (baseline) ini tetap bergantung kepada dukungan yang memadai dari kondisi pembiayaan eksternal, sejalan dengan kenyataan bahwa Indonesia tampaknya akan tetap mempertahankan keadaan defisit neraca pembayaran dasarnya pada tahun 2014. Hal ini semakin meningkatkan kebergantungan Indonesia terhadap aliran investasi portofolio yang berpotensi bergejolak. Selain itu, risiko khusus lain bagi neraca perdagangan adalah dampak dari pelarangan ekspor bahan mineral mentah, yang dijadwalkan akan mulai berlaku pada bulan Januari 2014 (Kotak 1). Defisit neraca Sementara defisit neraca Tabel 4: Tingginya pembayaran hutang eksternal pada transaksi berjalan, berjalan diproyeksikan akan triwulan 4, 2013 akan menambah tekanan pada Rupiah… bersama-sama dengan terus menyusut secara (proyeksi pembayaran kembali hutang luar negeri bruto, juta AS$) amortisasi hutang bertahap, kebutuhan Okt - Des 2013 Jan-Sep 2014 eksternal yang cukup pembiayaan eksternal bruto Pemerintah dan BI 2.131 10.087 besar, berkontribusi Indonesia tetap tinggi. Swasta 18.894 15.617 terhadap tingginya Amortisasi hutang eksternal Bank 3.720 3.074 kebutuhan yang signifikan semakin pembiayaan eksternal membebani tingkat defisit Non-bank 15.174 12.543 Lembaga Indonesia neraca transaksi berjalan keuangan non- yang masih cukup besar. bank 1.738 2.199 Sebagai contoh, menurut Perusahaan non- Bank Indonesia, pembayaran finansial 13.436 10.345 kembali hutang luar negeri Jumlah 21.025 25.704 akan mencapai 21,0 miliar Catatan: Berdasarkan posisi hutang luar negeri per September 2013; pembayaran hutang tidak termasuk sekuritas dalam negeri yang dolar AS pada triwulan akhir dimiliki asing, valuta dan tabungan, dan kewajiban lainnya tahun 2013, dan 25,7 miliar Sumber: Bank Indonesia dolar AS pada tiga triwulan pertama tahun 2014 (Tabel 4). Berdasarkan hal ini, jumlah amortisasi hutang eksternal diproyeksikan sebesar 41,2 miliar dolar AS untuk tahun 2013, dibandingkan dengan proyeksi Bank Dunia bagi defisit neraca transaksi berjalan 2013 sebesar 31 miliar dolar AS. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 13 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 1: Potensi dampak jangka pendek dari usulan larangan ekspor bahan mineral mentah terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia Menjelang tahun 2014, perhatian beralih ke potensi dampak usulan pelarangan ekspor bahan mentah, yang direncanakan akan berlaku mulai bulan Januari 2014. UU Pertambangan tahun 2009 (UU 4/2009) mengharuskan semua pemegang izin usaha pertambangan (IUP) dan kontrak karya (KK) untuk ‘memberikan nilai tambah’ pada produk-produk pertambangannya melalui pemurnian dan pengolahan dalam negeri dalam batas waktu pemenuhan kepatuhan selama lima tahun. Awalnya, peraturan ini direncanakan untuk mulai diberlakukan pada bulan Mei 2012, namun usulan larangan itu ditunda hingga bulan Januari 2014. Berdasarkan peraturan ini, pemegang IUP dan KK tidak diperkenankan untuk mengekspor bijih mineral atau produk olahan, termasuk bijih besi, tembaga, nikel, timah dan bauksit, yang memiliki kandungan mineral di bawah batas minimum – yang semuanya membutuhkan kapasitas peleburan (smelter).* Pada saat penulisan laporan ini, rincian pelaksanaan usulan larangan tersebut masih dalam pembahasan. Sebagian mencerminkan keprihatinan akan potensi dampak jangka pendek terhadap ekspor mineral Indonesia, tepat pada saat Indonesia sedang menghadapi tekanan pembiayaan eksternal yang signifikan. Komoditas merupakan sebagian besar dari ekspor Indonesia, yang menurut nilainya mencapai sekitar dua per tiga ekspor barang perdagangan. Ekspor mineral yang telah dan belum diproses saja mencapai 10,4 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2012, sekitar 5 persen dari jumlah ekspor. Keseluruhan bagian dari ekspor mineral yang telah terproses di dalam ekspor mineral telah mencatat kenaikan, dari 40 persen pada tahun 2001 menjadi 52 persen pada tahun 2012. Secara luas, terdapat tiga jalur perdagangan langsung yang mana larangan ekspor bijih mineral dapat berdampak kepada neraca perdagangan Indonesia. Pertama adalah dampak negatif melalui penurunan ekspor mineral yang belum diproses. Pengaruh kedua bersifat positif terhadap ekspor bila terdapat peningkatan volume mineral yang telah diproses. Pengaruh ketiga, melalui impor barang modal dan bahan setengah jadi untuk membangun dan mengoperasikan fasilitas peleburan, akan memberikan dampak negatif terhadap neraca perdagangan. Dibutuhkan serangkaian asumsi untuk dapat melakukan perkiraan atas pengaruh-pengaruh ini, mulai dari permintaan eksternal masa depan atas mineral mentah dan telah diproses hingga porsi impor dari biaya modal dan operasional peleburan, dan yang terpenting, tentang waktu dan skala investasi yang diperlukan terkait dengan kapasitas peleburan. Dengan demikian, perkiraan apapun yang dilakukan akan memiliki faktor ketidakpastian yang cukup besar. Terdapat sejumlah besar usulan rencana fasilitas peleburan, namun kemungkinan tidak semua usulan yang telah diumumkan akan dibangun. Selain itu, bagi usulan-usulan yang layak secara ekonomi, masih terus terdapat ketidakpastian apakah fasilitas peleburan yang diusulkan akan dapat mulai beroperasi pada awal tahun 2014, terutama karena panjangnya waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk membangun fasilitas peleburan sebelum operasinya dapat dimulai. Mengingat ketidakpastian ini, dua skenario potensial dapat dipertimbangkan, berkaitan dengan skenario dasar (baseline) di mana larangan impor itu tidak diterapkan, untuk mensimulasikan dampak potensial penetapan pelarangan itu terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia, yang mencerminkan perbedaan dalam laju mulai diterapkannya usulan kapasitas peleburan baru. Pada skenario pertama, seluruh usulan tambahan peleburan yang dianggap realistis oleh penelitian terbaru dari SEADI (Support for Economic Analysis Development in Indonesia) tentang topik ini dibangun sesuai jadwal – fasilitas peleburan akan memulai operasi pada tahun 2014 dan 2015. Pada skenario kedua, tidak ada fasilitas peleburan yang beroperasi pada jadwal waktu yang ditetapkan oleh peraturan dan larangan ekspor diberlakukan. Pada skenario pertama, dengan fasilitas peleburan yang layak siap beroperasi sesuai antisipasi SEADI, dampak peningkatan ekspor mineral yang telah diproses terhadap neraca perdagangan melebihi penurunan ekspor mineral mentah, setidaknya untuk tahun 2014. Selain itu, impor modal untuk membangun fasilitas peleburan diperkirakan akan memberikan beban yang signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan. Pada tahun 2014, larangan itu diproyeksikan akan menambah 6 miliar dolar AS terhadap defisit perdagangan. Namun, mulai tahun 2015, larangan itu akan memberi dampak yang relatif netral terhadap neraca perdagangan, relatif terhadap skenario dasar (baseline), karena impor modal yang berasal dari pembangunan fasilitas peleburan akan mulai berkurang dan peningkatan dari ekpor bahan terproses dengan nilai yang lebih tinggi mulai mengimbangi penurunan dalam ekspor mineral mentah yang disebabkan oleh larangan tersebut. Pada skenario kedua, dengan tidak adanya fasilitas peleburan baru yang beroperasi, turunnya ekspor mineral mentah sangat membebani neraca perdagangan, tanpa peningkatan apapun dalam ekspor mineral yang terproses. Nilai nominal dari turunnya penerimaan ekspor semakin meningkat setiap tahun dari sekitar 5 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2014 ke sekitar 8 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2017, yang mencerminkan “hilangnya peningkatan” ekspor mineral mentah selama periode tersebut. Simulasi tersebut menunjukkan potensi risiko penurunan yang signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia yang berasal dari penerapan larangan tersebut, terutama bila fasilitas peleburan baru di dalam negeri mengalami penundaan yang signifikan, yang mengakibatkan ketidakcukupan kapasitas untuk memproses mineral mentah di dalam negeri, yang akan berdampak terhadap ekspor mineral. Dengan skenario yang relatif lebih optimistis sekalipun (yaitu Skenario 1), dengan semua fasilitas peleburan yang layak secara ekonomi sesuai evaluasi SEADI dapat beroperasi, larangan itu masih akan menyebabkan kejutan negatif yang signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia dengan besaran sekitar 6 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2014. Kejutan seperti itu akan menambah sekitar 0,6 poin persentase dari PDB terhadap defisit neraca tranksaksi berjalan Indonesia pada tahun 2014 dan akan menggeser proyeksi defisit neraca tranksaksi berjalan dari 2,6 persen ke 3,2 persen dari PDB, dengan asumsi hal-hal lain tidak berubah. Hal ini akan mendorong peningkatan kebutuhan pembiayaan eksternal, sementara kondisi pembiayaan dunia sedang tidak mendukung. Selain itu, jika ditinjau dari sudut pandang investor yang melihat pelaksanaan pelarangan itu sebagai sinyal negatif terhadap kualitas lingkungan kebijakan dalam negeri, larangan itu dapat mempengaruhi aliran modal portofolio dan FDI (mengimbangi aliran masuk FDI manapun yang berkaitan dengan proyek-proyek fasilitas peleburan baru manapun). Terkait dengan hal ini, perlu dicatat bahwa simulasi di atas tidak mencakup implikasi jangka yang lebih panjang yang dapat bersifat distortif dari larangan tersebut terhadap struktur produksi ekonomi, maupun mencakup penilaian yang terperinci tentang tujuan kebijakan ekonomi yang mendasarinya atau kemungkinan efektivitasnya dalam pencapaian tujuan-tujuan tersebut. *Peraturan Menteri ESDM 7/2012 mengharuskan pemegang KK dan IUP untuk menyusun rencana fasilitas peleburan, menetapkan standar minimum bagi pemurnian dan pengolahan dalam negeri, dan menetapkan pelarangan ekspor bijih mineral mentah dalam waktu tiga bulan sejak peraturan itu ditetapkan (per bulan Mei 2012). Sebagian karena kurangnya kapasitas, pemberlakuan larangan itu kemudian ditunda dengan peraturan Kementerian ESDM 11/2012 hingga bulan Januari 2014. Pada masa jeda dari bulan Mei 2012 hingga Januari 2014, para pemegang KK diperkenankan untuk tetap melanjutkan ekspor mineral mentah tanpa pembatasan tambahan apapun. Para pemegang IUP diperkenankan untuk melanjutkan ekspor mineral mentah dengan membayar pajak ekspor sebesar 20 persen dan dapat memperpanjang izin ekspor bulanan. Catatan: Daftar usulan fasilitas peleburan baru yang digunakan dalam analisis ini diambil dari laporan “The Economic Effects of Indonesia’s Mineral-Processing Requirements for Export”, USAID, 2013, dibawah proyek SEADI untuk Kementerian Perdagangan Republik Indonesia Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 14 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia 5. Kondisi kredit diperkirakan akan semakin ketat memasuki 2014 Rupiah telah Kebutuhan pembiayaan dan jasa hutang luar negeri Indonesia yang cukup besar, yang dengan terdepresiasi akhir- sendirinya meningkatkan permintaan akan valuta asing, tampaknya merupakan faktor penting akhir ini, mungkin di balik perlemahan baru dalam kurs Rupiah sejak bulan Oktober. Setelah menguat menjadi disebabkan oleh 11.020 rupiah per dolar AS pada akhir bulan Oktober, kurs tukar spot Rupiah kemudian kebutuhan pembiayaan melemah menjadi 12.000 rupiah pada tanggal 11 Desember, sehingga sepanjang tahun ini eksternal bruto yang Rupiah telah melemah sebesar 24 persen terhadap dolar AS. Rupiah kini telah mencatat signifikan pada depresiasi hampir 18 persen secara nominal dengan pembobotan perdagangan hingga tanggal triwulan keempat… 12 Desember 2013, dan sebesar 8 persen secara efektif riil hingga bulan Oktober. …namun kondisi Namun, depresiasi signifikan Gambar 16:…namun kondisi likuiditas pasar spotvaluta asing likuiditas pasar valuta belakangan ini tidak terjadi dalam negeri telah membaik sejak pertengahan tahun telah membaik secara bersamaan dengan (rumah tangga perputaran harian, AS$ miliar) dibandingkan triwulan pengetatan yang terlihat 2.0 Domestic Banks ketiga … pada kondisi pasar valuta Overseas Banks hingga bulan November, Other customers seperti diukur oleh 1.5 Daily average: 2011 perputaran rata-rata pada pasar spot luar negeri. Hal ini Daily average: 2012 terjadi setelah Bank Daily average: 2013 1.0 Indonesia mengambil sejumlah langkah untuk meningkatkan likuiditas pasar luar negeri, dan 0.5 memfasilitasi penyesuaian dalam kurs tukar Rupiah menuju tingkat 0.0 ekuilibriumnya. Upaya-upaya Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 itu termasuk pelonggaran Catatan: Rata-rata perputaran pasar spot FX menurut rekanan; rata- persyaratan pembelian dolar rata harian 2013 hingga akhir bulan November AS bagi eksportir, Sumber: CEIC; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia perpanjangan waktu jatuh tempo fasilitas penyimpanan BI dalam dolar AS hingga 12 bulan, dan mengadakan lelang swap dolar AS secara teratur untuk memfasilitasi lindung nilai (hedging) untuk risiko-risiko valuta. Perputaran harian pasar spot valuta asing mencapai nilai rata-rata sebesar 500-600 juta dolar AS hingga akhir bulan November, jauh di atas rata-rata harian sekitar 350 juta dolar AS yang tercatat pada akhir bulan Agustus dan awal September (Gambar 16), sementara selisih (spread) antara tingkat spot dalam negeri dan forward luar negeri tetap ketat. …sementara BI telah Sejalan dengan pendekatan fleksibel terhadap Rupiah yang terlihat pada beberapa bulan mempertahankan terakhir, Bank Indonesia telah menyatakan dengan jelas bahwa fokus jangka pendeknya fokus dalam adalah mendukung peningkatan neraca eksternal. Sejak IEQ edisi bulan Oktober 2013, BI memfasilitasi telah meningkatkan koridor BI Rate-nya sebesar 25 basis poin (pada rapat terjadwal Dewan penyesuaian neraca Gubernur BI bulan November), sehingga jumlah peningkatan suku bunga BI Rate sejak eksternal bulan Juni telah mencapai 175 basis poin. Tingkat cadangan devisa juga telah stabil dan kemudian berangsur-angsur meningkat, menjadi 97,0 miliar dolar AS pada akhir bulan Oktober yang terus bertahan hingga akhir bulan November, naik dari nilai rendahnya sebesar 92,7 miliar dolar AS pada akhir bulan Juli. Sampai bulan September, BI memiliki posisi devisa short net open forward sebesar 5 miliar dolar AS, yang umumnya berasal dari lelang swap dolar AS yang dilakukan sejak bulan Juli untuk mendukung ketersediaan komersial dari lindung nilai (hedging) valuta asing. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 15 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Obligasi dan ekuitas Depresiasi Rupiah, peningkatan suku bunga jangka pendek, dan perlambatan produksi dalam negeri mencatat (output) semuanya membawa dampak terhadap obligasi dan ekuitas dalam negeri yang — perlemahan baru pada setelah kembali naik dengan kuat dari nilai rendahnya pada akhir bulan Agustus hingga awal triwulan keempat bulan September—mencatat perlemahan baru sejak bulan Oktober. Pasar obligasi dalam negeri mencatat pemulihan yang kuat dari pertengahan September hingga akhir Oktober, namun tingkat imbal hasil (yield) telah kembali meningkat, mengembalikan suku bunga dalam negeri jangka panjang mendekati nilai puncak yang pernah tercatat pada tahun berjalan (dengan yield acuan 10-tahunan pada 8,80 persen, peningkatan sebesar 350 basis poin selama tahun berjalan). Ekuitas dalam negeri awalnya kembali meningkat dengan kuat dari nilai rendahnya pada akhir Agustus, namun harga-harga saham telah kembali melemah, dengan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Bursa Efek Indonesia mencatat penurunan sebesar 2,6 persen selama tahun berjalan hingga tanggal 12 Desember. Pada bulan Oktober dan November, investor asing tetap menjadi penjual bersih dari ekuitas-ekuitas Indonesia, dengan jumlah penjualan bersih saham sebesar 6,9 triliun rupiah selama periode itu, meneruskan periode penjualan bersih yang berkelanjutan sejak penurunan dalam kecenderungan risiko (risk appetite) global untuk aset-aset pasar berkembang, dengan penjualan kumulatif ekuitas Indonesia sebesar 36 triliun rupiah sejak akhir bulan April. Sebaliknya, investor obligasi asing menjadi pembeli bersih obligasi yang signifikan, dengan pembelian kumulatif sebesar 42,8 triliun rupiah sejak pulihnya aliran masuk modal pada awal bulan September (hingga 6 Desember), membawa tingkat kepemilikan obligasi negara dalam negeri mereka menjadi 32,5 persen. Pertumbuhan kredit Walau dengan pengetatan dalam kebijakan moneter sejak bulan Juni, pertumbuhan kredit nominal tetap bertahan bank tetap tinggi secara nominal, dengan peningkatan sebesar 22,2 persen yoy pada bulan kuat selama bulan Oktober. Namun perlu dicatat bahwa peningkatan kredit telah menerima dorongan dari Oktober, didorong oleh pengaruh kurs tukar, yang telah meningkatkan nilai Rupiah dari pinjaman dengan denominasi pengaruh kurs tukar, valuta asing, yang merupakan 15 persen dari kredit perbankan yang disalurkan; pertumbuhan namun telah turun yoy kredit valas dalam Rupiah telah meningkat dari 15 persen yoy pada bulan Mei ke 24 persen secara riil… yoy pada bulan Oktober (Gambar 17). Selain itu, pertumbuhan kredit riil (yang mencatat deflasi berkat inflasi IHK yang sedang berlangsung) terus melambat, menjadi 12,8 persen yoy pada bulan Oktober, dari 18 persen yoy pada akhir tahun 2012 (Gambar 18). Gambar 17: Pertumbuhan kredit bank telah terinflasi oleh Gambar 18: …namun telah melambat, terutama secara riil pengaruh kurs tukar… (pertumbuhan kredit bank yoy dan bulan-ke-bulan, persen) (pertumbuhan yoy, persen) 60 Kredit valuta asing 30 15 (dolar AS) Nominal (LHS) Kredit mata uang lokal (IDR) 40 20 10 20 Riil (LHS) 10 5 0 Kredit valuta asing 0 0 -20 (IDR) Pertumbuhan nominal kredit bulanan (RHS) -40 -10 -5 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Sumber: CEIC; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Catatan: Kredit riil dideflasikan dengan IHK; Oktober disimpulkan dari pertumbuhan 22,2 persen yoy, seperti dikatakan oleh BI Sumber: CEIC; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia …dan sementara kredit Walau data-data terakhir menyiratkan tingkat pertumbuhan yang kuat, laporan pasar kini perumahan meningkat mengindikasikan pengetatan dalam kredit yang berkaitan dengan properti oleh sejumlah pada triwulan ketiga, bank besar, yang sepertinya membebani pertumbuhan harga properti di masa yang akan Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 16 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia laporan pasar datang. Pertumbuhan pada kredit yang berhubungan dengan properti kembali meningkat ke menunjukkan kondisi 30 persen yoy per bulan September, naik dari 20 persen pada bulan Juni, yang merupakan laju pengetatan kredit yang pertumbuhan tercepat sejak penetapan persyaratan uang muka (loan-to-value, LTV) yang lebih terkait properti… ketat bagi kredit perumahan pada bulan Juli 2012. Penguatan yang belakangan terjadi pada kredit properti itu mencerminkan peningkatan kredit perumahan, yang merupakan 60 persen dari seluruh kredit yang berkaitan dengan properti. Angka-angka itu juga menunjukkan bahwa upaya-upaya makro-prudensial untuk mengendalikan laju kredit properti hanya memiliki dampak yang terbatas sejauh ini, dengan pengetatan rasio LTV lebih lanjut oleh Bank Indonesia untuk kredit bagi rumah kedua dan ketiga pada bulan Juli 2013. Dengan dukungan kredit properti yang kokoh, harga perumahan terus mencatat peningkatan yang kuat selama triwulan ketiga; harga perumahan nasional meningkat 14 persen selama tahun berjalan hingga bulan September, dipimpin oleh pertumbuhan harga rumah-rumah berukuran lebih kecil. Pertumbuhan harga apartemen telah sedikit melambat sejak akhir tahun 2012, namun masih tetap kuat pada 30 persen yoy, demikian juga untuk harga sewa ruang perkantoran dan harga jual tanah-tanah industri. …namun Ke depannya, pertumbuhan kredit bank diperkirakan akan menurun, menjadi sekitar 15 pertumbuhan kredit persen yoy pada triwulan-triwulan mendatang menurut proyeksi Bank Dunia. Pada bulan tampaknya akan Oktober, pertumbuhan uang yang beredar luas (broad money, M2) mencapai 13 persen yoy, dan melambat di masa pertumbuhan dalam deposito dan tabungan pada khususnya mencapai 11,6 persen yoy, jauh depan… di bawah laju pada akhir tahun 2012 yang mendekati 20 persen. Rasio hutang terhadap simpanan (loan to deposit ratio, LDR) agregat mencapai 88,9 persen pada bulan September, naik dari 84 persen pada akhir tahun 2012 dan tidak jauh dari batas atas sasaran LDR BI sebesar 92 persen, dan mengindikasikan terbatasnya ruang untuk pertumbuhan kredit akan terus berlanjut, melampaui pertumbuhan simpanan. …di tengah-tengah Di samping pertumbuhan Gambar 19: Likuiditas Rupiah telah mengetat dan biaya pengetatan kondisi simpanan yang lebih lemah, pinjaman antar-bank telah meningkat likuiditas domestik bank-bank juga menghadapi (suku bunga, persen, dan kelebihan likuiditas, triliun Rupiah) kondisi likuiditas yang lebih Excess commercial bank Rupiah liquidity ketat. Kelebihan likuiditas (RHS) BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate bank umum yang diukur oleh 16 250 BI, walau jumlahnya masih 14 3-month interbank (JIBOR) rate besar, telah turun dari nilai 200 puncaknya pada pertengahan 12 tahun, dan siklus pengetatan 10 150 BI telah meningkatkan suku 8 bunga pinjaman antar-bank, dengan JIBOR 3-bulanan naik 6 100 dari 4,9 persen sebelum BI 4 memulai siklus pengetatannya 50 pada bulan Juni, menjadi 7,6 2 persen pada awal Desember 0 0 (Gambar 19). Laporan pasar Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 juga menunjukkan adanya Catatan: Data kelebihan likuiditas tersedia hingga akhir bulan pengetatan kondisi likuiditas Oktober dalam negeri, terutama bagi Sumber: CEIC sejumlah bank-bank berukuran kecil hingga menengah, dengan penurunan batas pinjaman antar-bank akibat keprihatinan akan peningkatan risiko rekanan (counterparty), yang berkaitan dengan kurangnya likuiditas antar-bank atau keseluruhan pasar pembiayaan dan sempitnya dasar simpanan. Selain itu, beban pembiayaan luar negeri bank asing telah meningkat, sejalan dengan pengetatan umum dalam kondisi pembiayaan eksternal bagi dunia usaha Indonesia. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 17 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Indikator agregat Peningkatan suku bunga dan daya saing bagi simpanan, seiring dengan semakin ketatnya risiko sektor likuiditas, menyiratkan tekanan naik bagi biaya dana perbankan, yang akan mengakibatkan perbankan tetap sehat penyusutan margin bunga bersih, walau jumlahnya akan bergantung kepada struktur pendanaan masing-masing bank dan kemampuan pemberian harga ulang bagi pinjaman mereka. Namun metrik profitabilitas masih tetap kuat sampai akhir bulan Oktober, dan indikator-indikator agregat sektor perbankan lainnya tetaplah stabil, dengan kredit bermasalah (non-performing loan) masih di bawah 2 persen, kecukupan modal masih jauh di atas standar minimum, dan metrik profitabilitas dalam posisi kuat. Selain itu, risiko sistemik dari Rupiah yang lebih lemah dan suku bunga jangka panjang yang lebih tinggi tampaknya tetap terkendali; uji daya tahan (stress test) Bank Indonesia yang diterbitkan pada Kajian Stabilitas Keuangan bulan Maret 2013 menunjukkan bahwa depresiasi Rupiah sebesar 10 persen akan mengakibatkan penurunan dalam rasio kecukupan modal (Capital Adequacy Ration, CAR) agregat bank sebesar 1,0 persen. Penurunan nilai obligasi pemerintah sebesar 20 persen akan mengakibatkan penurunan dalam CAR agregat bank sebesar 1,5 persen, dengan penurunan CAR yang lebih besar untuk bank-bank BUMN dan asing, akibat kepemilikan obligasi pemerintah yang lebih besar oleh bank-bank tersebut. Kegiatan pembiayaan Selain kredit bank, akses terhadap bentuk-bentuk pembiayaan lain juga telah mengetat. non-bank juga Pertumbuhan dalam pinjaman perusahaan pembiayaan, yang berjumlah sekitar 10 persen dari melambat seluruh aset sistem finansial, telah melambat menjadi 14 persen yoy pada September 2013, dari pertumbuhan sebesar 32 persen satu tahun sebelumnya. Ke depan, pinjaman non-bank diperkirakan akan semakin melemah, sejalan dengan kondisi kredit dalam negeri yang semakin ketat dan beban pembiayaan luar negeri yang lebih tinggi (dengan pinjaman dari bank-bank asing yang mencapai 22 persen dari seluruh kewajiban perusahaan pembiayaan, dibanding dengan 35 persen pinjaman bank-bank dalam negeri). Penerbitan obligasi perusahaan juga turun tajam sejak bulan Juni, dengan penerbitan hingga akhir November hanya setara dengan 15 persen dari jumlah penerbitan pada triwulan akhir tahun 2012.1 6. Pertumbuhan pengeluaran publik dan penerimaan pajak telah melemah selama tahun 2013 Defisit fiskal hingga Sektor fiskal Indonesia terus merasakan dampak dari melemahnya harga komoditas November 2013 internasional dan depresiasi Rupiah. Berdasarkan hasil realisasi sebelas bulan pertama tahun berjumlah 50 persen 2013, defisit fiskal selama setahun penuh tampaknya akan relatif sejalan dengan proyeksi lebih besar dibanding ABPN-P 2013, karena penerimaan yang diperkirakan akan berada sedikit di bawah sasaran periode yang sama tampaknya akan diimbangi dengan pencairan pengeluaran yang lebih rendah secara tahun lalu… keseluruhan (dengan belanja subsidi yang melampaui sasaran diimbangi dengan belanja modal dan barang yang lebih rendah dari sasaran). Selama periode Januari hingga November 2013, Indonesia mencatat defisit fiskal sebesar 163 triliun rupiah (atau 1,7 persen dari PDB), dibanding 106 triliun rupiah pada periode yang sama tahun lalu. Pengumpulan penerimaan mencatat pertumbuhan yang sedikit lebih tinggi untuk periode ini dibanding pada 2012, sementara pertumbuhan pengeluaran melambat dibanding 2012 namun tingkat pencairannya lebih tinggi (Tabel 5). …disebabkan lebih Alasan utama dari defisit fiskal yang secara signifikan lebih besar selama sebelas bulan tingginya tingkat pertama tahun 2013 dibanding periode yang sama tahun lalu adalah peningkatan dalam pencairan belanja… pencairan belanja. Hal ini terutama terjadi untuk belanja sosial (termasuk selesainya pelaksanaan kompensasi Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat (BLSM) pasca kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni) dan belanja modal, walau belanja sosial dan modal mencatat pertumbuhan nominal yang lebih lambat secara keseluruhan untuk periode tersebut pada tahun 2013 dibanding pada 2012. Laju pelaksanaan APBN pada bidang-bidang itu tampaknya dibantu oleh kenyataan bahwa alokasinya pada APBN-P 2013 memproyeksikan pertumbuhan nominal yang relatif sedikit dibanding APBN-P 2012. Belanja subsidi BBM selama Januari-November mencatat laju pencairan yang lebih rendah relatif terhadap alokasi APBN-P tahun 2013 dibanding tahun lalu, yang mencapai 87 persen 1 Data penerbitan obligasi perusahaan dalam negeri hingga 27 November 2013. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 18 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia dari sasaran belanja untuk tahun ini. Belanja aktuil subsidi BBM tahun 2013 kemungkinan akan kembali melampaui alokasinya pada APBN-P (dengan pencairan subsidi BBM bulan November masih harus ditambahkan kepada angka-angka di atas, selain juga angka bulan Desember). Subsidi listrik telah mencatat pertumbuhan nominal yoy yang sedikit lebih cepat pada tahun 2013 dibanding tahun lalu, walau dengan peningkatan tarif listrik secara bertahap yang dilakukan pada tahun 2013, dan pencairan yang sedikit lebih tinggi dibanding APBN-P. Namun, hal ini mungkin lebih mencerminkan perbedaan dalam jadwal pembayaran dan bukan peningkatan belanja tahunan riil. …sementara Tren realisasi penerimaan pada sebelas bulan pertama tahun 2013 umumnya serupa dengan penerimaan dibanding periode yang sama tahun 2012 terhadap target di APBN-P, walau pertumbuhan nominal yoy sasaran APBN berada sedikit lebih tinggi. Hal ini diakibatkan oleh, pada satu sisi, moderasi dalam pertumbuhan pada tingkat yang pungutan pajak, sebesar 9 persen yoy dari 13,9 persen yoy pada tahun 2012, dan peningkatan sama dengan tahun tipis dalam penerimaan bukan pajak di sisi yang lain. Pajak perdagangan internasional lalu berkontraksi dibanding tahun yang lalu, terutama akibat penurunan dalam pungutan pajak ekspor, yang sejalan dengan melemahnya ekspor, seperti dibahas pada Bagian 4. Pungutan pajak pendapatan dari sektor migas telah melambat, sementara penerimaan sumber daya alam dari migas meningkat. Pola ini tampaknya berkaitan dengan perbedaan waktu dalam pungutan dari kedua jenis penerimaan tersebut. Walau dengan konsumsi swasta yang relatif kuat, pungutan PPN pada sebelas bulan pertama tahun 2013 mencatat pertumbuhan nominal yoy yang lebih lambat dibanding tahun lalu (masing-masing sebesar 13,6 persen dibanding 28,5 persen), dan juga realisasi yang lebih rendah dibanding sasaran tahunan. Karena sekitar 40 persen dari pungutan PPN Indonesia berasal dari impor, perlambatan impor tampaknya berkontribusi secara signifikan terhadap perlemahan ini. Tabel 5: Pencairan APBN yang lebih tinggi menjadi karakteristik periode Jan-Nov 2013, dibanding tahun-tahun yang lalu Nilai nominal (Jan - Nov) Proporsi (Jan - Nov) Pertumbuhan nominal (yoy) (Rp triliun) terhadap APBN-P (Persen) (Persen) 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 A. Penerimaan 1.023 1.102 1.224 87,4 81,1 81,5 22,8 7,7 11,1 1. Penerimaan pajak 753 858 936 85,7 84,5 81,5 22,2 13,9 9,0 PPh (migas) 65 74 72 99,5 108,5 96,5 39,8 13,5 -2,7 PPh (non-migas) 317 340 368 86,3 76,2 79,2 19,9 7,4 8,2 Pajak penjualan (PPN) 226 291 330 75,8 86,5 77,9 18,6 28,5 13,6 Pajak dagang int’l 50 46 42 105,6 95,1 86,3 107,6 -8,0 -8,3 2. Pen. bukan pajak 267 240 286 93,3 70,5 81,8 23,9 -10,1 18,8 Migas 154 122 156 89,2 61,6 86,6 33,6 -20,9 28,1 Non-migas 18 19 22 97,7 100,6 94,6 18,0 3,2 15,3 B. Pengeluaran 1.001 1.209 1.387 75,8 78,1 80,3 22,5 20,8 14,7 1. Pemerintah pusat 648 779 910 71,3 72,8 76,0 23,2 20,2 16,8 Pegawai 159 182 204 86,9 85,8 87,8 19,7 14,6 12,2 Barang 85 101 118 59,5 62,1 58,0 17,9 18,4 16,9 Modal 67 91 107 47,2 51,6 57,0 39,7 36,6 18,1 Pembayaran bunga 84 91 104 79,1 77,2 92,6 7,2 7,9 14,6 Subsidi 201 250 298 84,7 101,9 85,7 55,7 24,3 19,4 Energi 175 218 260 89,4 107,8 86,6 62,9 24,9 19,1 BBM 111 148 174 85,4 107,7 87,1 86,8 33,5 17,6 Listrik 64 70 86 97,3 107,9 85,8 33,3 9,9 22,3 Non-energi 26 32 38 62,6 74,0 79,7 20,4 20,4 21,7 Sosial 47 61 77 57,8 70,3 95,0 -13,7 27,9 26,6 2. Transfer ke daerah 353 430 477 85,7 89,9 90,1 21,2 21,8 10,8 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 19 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Sasaran pembiayaan Kebutuhan pembiayaan bruto melalui sekuritas sebesar 326,9 triliun rupiah seperti tercantum sekuritas bruto untuk dalam APBN-P tahun 2013 pada dasarnya telah terpenuhi, dengan nilai sekuritas hutang tahun 2013 akan bernilai 323,0 triliun rupiah yang telah diterbitkan per tanggal 3 Desember. Penerbitan telah tercapai pulih kembali dari masa-masa sulitnya dari bulan Mei ke Agustus, yang hanya mencatat jumlah penerbitan terbatas dari hutang-hutang dengan tenor lebih panjang, yang meningkatkan kebergantungan Pemerintah kepada surat hutang negara dengan jangka waktu 1 tahun atau kurang. Per tanggal 3 Desember, sejumlah 42,4 triliun rupiah surat hutang negara telah diterbitkan selama tahun 2013, dibanding jumlah penerbitan surat hutang negara sebesar 30,5 triliun rupiah pada tahun 2012. Namun, profil risiko hutang Pemerintah pada akhir tahun 2013, seperti diproyeksikan oleh Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang (DJPU), Kementerian Keuangan RI, tetap kuat secara keseluruhan, dengan rata-rata waktu jatuh tempo hutang pemerintah hanya turun tipis, ke 9,6 tahun (dari 9,7 tahun pada 2012). Selain itu, hanya 15,7 persen dari jumlah hutang merupakan suku bunga variabel, walau paparan valuta tetap signifikan dengan 44,6 persen dari jumlah hutang diproyeksikan oleh DJPU dalam denominasi valuta asing pada akhir tahun 2013. Tabel 6: Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit fiskal 2,1 persen dari PDB untuk 2014, turun dari 2,5 persen untuk 2013 (Rp triliun, kecuali dinyatakan lain) 2012 2013 2014 Aktuil APBN-P Bank Dunia APBN Bank Dunia teraudit A. Penerimaan 1.338 1.502 1.462 1.667 1.603 1. Penerimaan pajak 981 1.148 1.115 1.280 1.246 2. Penerimaan bukan pajak 352 349 342 385 353 B. Pengeluaran 1.491 1.726 1.686 1.842 1.819 1. Pemerintah pusat, terdiri dari 1.011 1.197 1.159 1.250 1.234 Pegawai 198 233 230 263 261 Barang 141 203 174 216 184 Modal 145 188 169 184 185 Subsidi, terdiri dari 346 348 369 334 391 Subsidi BBM 212 200 221 211 239 Subsidi listrik 95 100 100 71 100 2. Transfer ke daerah 481 529 527 593 585 C. Neraca primer -53 -112 -109 -54 -88 D. Surplus/defisit -153 -224 -225 -175 -216 sebagai persen dari PDB -1,9 -2,4 -2,5 -1,7 -2,1 E. Pembiayaan bersih 175 224 n.a. 175 n.a. 1. Pembiayaan dalam negeri 199 241 n.a. 196 n.a. 2. Pembiayaan luar negeri -23 -17 n.a. -21 n.a. Asumsi ekonomi utama Pertumbuhan ekonomi (persen) 6,2 6,3 5,6 6,0 5,3 IHK (yoy, persen) 4,3 7,2 7,4 5,5 6,8 Kurs tukar (Rp/ AS$) 9.384 9.600 10.563 10.500 11.800 Harga minyak (AS$/barel) 113 108 104 105 103 Produksi minyak (ribu barel/hari) 861 840 840 870 870 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Bank Dunia Dengan mempertimbangkan realisasi pada sebelas bulan pertama tahun 2013, lebih memproyeksikan lemahnya harga komoditas dan depresiasi Rupiah, namun juga peningkatan tipis dalam defisit anggaran pada pertumbuhan PDB nominal pada triwulan keempat berkat lebih tingginya pertumbuhan tahun 2013 akan harga, Bank Dunia telah meninjau ulang proyeksi fiskalnya untuk tahun 2013 dan 2014. mencapai 2,5 persen Proyeksi defisit fiskal untuk tahun 2013 tetap tidak berubah dari IEQ edisi bulan Oktober, dari PDB dan 2,1 pada 2,5 persen dari PDB. Untuk tahun 2014, dengan memperhitungkan pengumuman akan persen dari PDB untuk perubahan kebijakan dan juga perubahan asumsi-asumsi ekonomi makro, Bank Dunia sedikit tahun 2014 menurunkan proyeksinya untuk defisit fiskal tahun 2014 dari 2,3 persen dari PDB pada IEQ Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 20 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia edisi Oktober 2013 menjadi 2,1 persen dari PDB. Bagian B.1 memberikan tinjauan terperinci tentang APBN 2014 yang telah disetujui, dan rincian lebih lanjut tentang asumsi-asumsi Bank Dunia untuk sektor fiskal tahun 2014. 7. Melihat risiko yang ada, dibutuhkan kemajuan lebih lanjut dalam reformasi yang mendukung pertumbuhan Risiko ekonomi Sementara perkiraan dasar (baseline) bagi ekonomi Indonesia adalah berlanjutnya penurunan terhadap prospek walau tipis, dengan pertumbuhan triwulanan tetap berada di atas 5,0 persen yoy hingga akhir tahun 2014 cukup tahun 2014, dan semakin menyempitnya defisit neraca transaksi berjalan pada triwulan- signifikan… triwulan yang akan datang, proyeksi-proyeksi ini mengandung ketidakpastian yang signifikan. Penurunan kondisi pembiayaan eksternal lebih lanjut yang tiba-tiba merupakan risiko khusus yang terus membayangi, sejalan dengan kebutuhan pembiayaan eksternal Indonesia yang besar. Penurunan itu dapat dipicu oleh perkembangan pasar internasional, atau lebih khusus lagi disebabkan oleh perkembangan kebijakan dan ekonomi dalam negeri. Hal ini dapat turut membawa pengaruh negatif terhadap kegiatan ekonomi riil dengan memberikan tekanan naik tambahan terhadap suku bunga, tekanan turun kepada harga-harga aset dan Rupiah, dan dapat menyebabkan tekanan-tekanan tertentu pada sektor dunia usaha yang akan berpengaruh buruk terhadap tingkat kepercayaan sektor swasta. …terutama bagi Proyeksi PDB Indonesia sangat peka terhadap prospek investasi, yang sangat bergantung prospek investasi, pada jalur kurs tukar dan suku bunga riil (seperti diuraikan pada IEQ edisi bulan Oktober namun konsumsi 2013). Selain itu, terdapat risiko bahwa pertumbuhan konsumsi swasta dapat melambat lebih swasta juga dapat dari yang diantisipasi pada skenario dasar (base case), misalnya, jika tingginya harga dan suku melemah melebihi bunga semakin memuncak—terutama bila dibarengi oleh semakin bergejolaknya harga aset- perkiraan… aset—dengan mengikis keyakinan, pendapatan rumah tangga, dan profitabilitas dunia usaha. Hal itu akan menjadi penghambat yang nyata bagi pertumbuhan, karena persentase konsumsi swasta mencapai sekitar 55 persen dari jumlah pengeluaran. …dan terdapat risiko Dengan demikian, keseluruhan risiko condong pada perlemahan permintaan domestik yang nyata dari daripada skenario dasar (base case). Bahkan pertumbuhan permintaan yang hanya sedikit lebih pertumbuhan PDB lemah saja dari yang diantisipasi (seperti penurunan investasi dan konsumsi swasta sebesar tahun 2014 turun di 0,5 poin persentase) dapat menurunkan pertumbuhan PDB menjadi di bawah 5 persen. bawah 5 persen Moderasi yang lebih besar dalam permintaan dalam negeri (dengan konsumsi swasta dan pertumbuhan investasi turun sebesar 1 poin persentase dibanding skenario dasar (baseline)), misalnya karena peningkatan keterbatasan pembiayaan eksternal, dapat menyebabkan pertumbuhan PDB pada tahun 2014 menjadi di bawah 4,5 persen (Tabel 7). Tabel 7: Pertumbuhan konsumsi dan investasi yang sedikit lebih lemah dari perkiraan dapat menyebabkan pertumbuhan PDB tahun 2014 menjadi di bawah 5 persen (pertumbuhan riil, persen, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Konsumsi Investasi PDB Pertumbuhan PDB swasta keseluruhan dibanding baseline (ppt) Baseline 2014 4,9 4,4 5,3 n.a. Permintaan domestik sedikit melemah* 4,4 3,9 4,7 -0,6 Permintaan domestik melemah signifikan** 3,9 3,4 4,3 -0,9 Historis 2009 (mencerminkan dampak GFC) 4,9 3,3 4,6 -0,7 Catatan: Skenario mengasumsikan konsumsi dan investasi swasta masing-masing *0,5 ppt dan **1,0 ppt lebih rendah dari baseline; GFC: krisis keuangan dunia (global financial crisis) Sumber: Proyeksi staf Bank Dunia Sejauh ini penyesuaian Penyesuaian kurs tukar dan kebijakan moneter yang dilaksanakan pada tahun 2013 ekonomi makro membawa pengaruh yang secara umum positif bagi stabilitas ekonomi makro, dengan membawa dampak depresiasi Rupiah bertindak sebagai “peredam kejutan” bagi perlemahan perdagangan umum yang positif dengan mendorong penerimaan ekspor dan mengurangi permintaan impor. Lebih tingginya bagi stabilitas, namun suku bunga telah membantu mengurangi permintaan dalam negeri, dan permintaan impor, mengandung biaya… serta bersifat mendukung aliran masuk investasi portofolio. Namun, penyesuaian- Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 21 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia penyesuaian itu memakan biaya, termasuk dengan adanya tekanan terhadap neraca pemerintah dan swasta melalui peningkatan nilai Rupiah dari hutang luar negeri (terutama jika terdapat selisih valuta) dan mengikis penerimaan karena lebih tingginya biaya jasa hutang dan impor, serta membawa risiko dan ketidakpastian yang lebih sulit dihitung, seperti dampak terhadap sentimen. …dan penekanan Pertumbuhan impor telah melambat dan dalam skenario dasar (base case) tampaknya akan impor secara khusus terus berlanjut, walau bertahap, mendukung penurunan dalam defisit neraca transaksi bukanlah obat yang berjalan Indonesia dan kebutuhan akan pembiayaan eksternal. Namun, seperti disinggung di mujarab… atas, penyusutan impor akan berarti lebih terbatasnya barang-barang modal, serta bahan mentah dan bahan-bahan setengah jadi bagi produk barang manufaktur, sehingga akan menjadi beban langsung terhadap pertumbuhan produksi (output) saat ini dan masa depan. Karenanya tantangan kebijakan yang sesungguhnya bagi Indonesia bukanlah menekan impor melalui peraturan perundangan, namun meningkatkan ekspor, dan mendapatkan pembiayaan eksternal yang lebih banyak dan berkualitas lebih tinggi, terutama FDI. …menggarisbawahi Memasuki tahun 2014 dan selanjutnya, fokus yang baru dan memang dibutuhkan untuk kebutuhan akan lebih stabilitas ekonomi makro jangka pendek, harus terus dilengkapi dengan lebih banyak langkah banyak reformasi untuk mendukung siklus baik investasi yang kuat, termasuk investasi asing, dan pertumbuhan kebijakan untuk produksi (output). Untuk mewujudkan hal ini, dibutuhkan suatu penekanan dalam mendukung ekspor mendukung ekspor demi memastikan bahwa peningkatan daya saing internasional yang dan aliran masuk berasal dari perlemahan Rupiah tidaklah hilang, juga peningkatan efisiensi investasi, serta FDI… mendukung, dan meningkatkan, aliran masuk FDI. Sementara FDI, secara nominal, sejauh ini masih terbukti tetap kokoh, namun FDI didukung oleh tiga faktor yang semuanya terpengaruh dengan taraf yang berbeda-beda di bawah tekanan yang belakangan terjadi: sumber daya alam Indonesia yang besar (tertekan dengan harga komoditas dunia yang relatif lemah), pasar dalam negeri yang besar dan bertumbuh (sedikit tertekan, setidaknya untuk jangka pendek, dengan kendala yang menghadang permintaan dalam negeri) dan potensi Indonesia sebagai pusat produksi wilayah Asia (tertekan oleh ketidakpastian peraturan perundangan dan kesenjangan keterampilan dan infrastruktur). Kotak 2 menilik kemajuan terakhir yang tidak merata dalam perbaikan iklim investasi Indonesia. Lebih banyaknya kemajuan untuk mengatasi tantangan-tantangan ini akan dapat memberikan hasil, tidak hanya dalam bentuk pertumbuhan berkelanjutan yang lebih tinggi untuk jangka menengah, namun juga dalam pengelolaan risiko jangka pendek, dengan mendukung keyakinan investor dalam dan luar negeri kepada jalur lintasan perkembangan Indonesia di masa depan dan aliran masuk modal pembiayaan eksternal yang terkait dengannya. …dan terus Pada sektor fiskal, subsidi BBM tetap menjadi sumber risiko fiskal, melemahkan kemampuan menekankan kurs tukar yang fleksibel dalam menyerap kejutan (dengan dampak yang signifikan dari peningkatan kualitas depresiasi terhadap peningkatan beban subsidi BBM) dan mengalihkan belanja dari beragam belanja, termasuk pemanfaatan yang lebih efisien, termasuk investasi publik yang dibutuhkan dalam bidang melalui reformasi infrastruktur, perlindungan sosial, dan program kesehatan. Seperti disebutkan pada IEQ edisi subsidi energi bulan Oktober, Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa depresiasi Rupiah sebesar 10 persen akan meningkatkan defisit fiskal sebesar 0,3-0,4 poin persentase dari PDB, sebagian besar melalui peningkatan beban subsidi BBM. Hal ini menekankan pentingnya reformasi lanjutan, seperti implementasi pendekatan berdasarkan aturan untuk menentukan harga BBM bersubsidi sedemikian rupa agar membatasi eksposur fiskal Pemerintah terhadap peningkatan harga BBM berdenominasi Rupiah, sementara pada saat yang bersamaan meningkatkan jaring pengaman bagi mereka yang lebih tidak mampu untuk menghadapi kejutan, termasuk yang berkaitan dengan harga-harga yang berhubungan dengan BBM. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 22 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 2: Perkembangan terbaru tentang kebijakan-kebijakan untuk meningkatkan iklim investasi di Indonesia Pada saat laporan ini disusun, penerapan komponen-komponen paket kebijakan ekonomi bulan Agustus yang dirancang untuk mempercepat investasi telah kembali ditunda. Tiga dari empat tindakan yang dijanjikan masih belum dilaksanakan: (1) mempercepat dan menyederhanakan perizinan investasi; (2) mempercepat revisi daftar negatif investasi (DNI) untuk lebih membuka ekonomi Indonesia bagi investasi asing; dan (3) mempercepat program-program investasi berbasis pertanian (minyak sawit mentah, kakao, rotan) dan logam mineral (bauksit, nikel, dan tembaga) dengan memberikan pembebasan pajak dan keringanan pajak sebagai insentif. Sebagai contoh, penurunan jumlah perizinan pada sektor migas dari enam puluh sembilan ke delapan izin belum dilaksanakan, dan terdapat keprihatinan bahwa perubahan itu hanya akan terbatas kepada pengelompokan izin-izin itu tanpa ada penyederhanaan prosedur sesungguhnya maupun penyingkatan waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk memperoleh izin-izin itu. Revisi peraturan pelaksanaan untuk insentif pajak, dan mekanisme pelaksanaannya, masih belum selesai. Pemerintah terus memberikan pesan-pesan yang saling berlawanan tentang kemajuan revisi DNI. Pada awal bulan November, Pemerintah mengumumkan bahwa revisi DNI sudah hampir selesai dan menyatakan kembali komitmennya untuk membuka lebih banyak sektor bagi investasi asing dengan membuka Kemitraan Publik-Swasta (KPS) dalam infrastruktur dan melonggarkan partisipasi asing pada sejumlah sektor (seperti apotek, rumah sakit khusus, dan transportasi). Pengumuman ini menuai banyak kritik dari berbagai pihak melalui media*, yang menyatakan bahwa Pemerintah telah gagal melindungi kepentingan nasional. Kalangan usaha dalam negeri juga telah menyatakan dukungan mereka terhadap perlindungan sejumlah sektor dari persaingan dengan pihak asing. Pemerintah kemudian mencoba memperlunak pengumuman itu dengan menyatakan bahwa pembahasannya masih jauh dari selesai dan menegaskan kembali komitmennya untuk melindungi kepentingan nasional. Pembahasan tentang bagaimana kepentingan itu dapat diseimbangkan dalam revisi DNI masih terus berlanjut. Upaya yang berkepanjangan untuk memperbaharui DNI menunjukkan debat yang lebih luas di Indonesia akan relatif pentingnya keterbukaan terhadap perdagangan dan investasi internasional untuk mendukung prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Walau Pemerintah telah mengumumkan bahwa pembaharuan DNI adalah prioritas kebijakan, namun berdasarkan kemajuan terakhir, tidaklah jelas apakah revisi DNI yang akan datang benar-benar membuatnya menjadi ramah terhadap investor dan dengan demikian meningkatkan iklim investasi, seperti dimaksud pada paket kebijakan bulan Agustus. Dengan semakin dekatnya pemilu tahun 2014, masih perlu dilihat seberapa besar pengaruh sentimen nasionalis dan proteksionis terhadap penyusunan kebijakan ekonomi pada bulan-bulan mendatang. Ke depannya, penguatan kualitas proses penyusunan kebijakan, misalnya melalui peningkatan mekanisme koordinasi dan proses musyawarah serta peningkatan proses reformasi peraturan perundangan (melalui pendekatan dan tinjauan peraturan “keseluruhan pemerintahan”) merupakan hal yang sangat penting untuk memastikan bahwa ketidakpastian kebijakan dapat diminimalkan, untuk mendukung aliran masuk FDI yang akan membantu menjawab kebutuhan pembiayaan eksternal Indonesia, dan untuk memastikan bahwa Indonesia akan memperoleh manfaat sepenuhnya dari FDI. Proses penyusunan kebijakan yang lebih kuat juga akan dapat menjawab keprihatinan penduduk Indonesia yang sahih secara lebih baik, yaitu bahwa kebijakan dibuat demi kepentingan masyarakat yang lebih luas, sementara memungkinkan Pemerintah untuk menimbang kepentingan masyarakat luas secara lebih efektif terhadap kepentingan dunia usaha yang lebih sempit dan permintaan akan proteksi yang tidak membawa manfaat kepada keseluruhan ekonomi. Sebagai catatan positif, pada tanggal 25 Oktober, Pemerintah meluncurkan suatu paket kebijakan yang ambisius untuk meningkatkan kemudahan melakukan usaha. Rencana aksi yang diumumkan terdiri dari tujuh belas tindakan bagi delapan bidang “Melakukan Usaha: (disesuaikan kepada delapan dari sepuluh indikator pada peringkat negara “Doing Business” dari Bank Dunia) dan diperkirakan akan dilaksanakan pada bulan Februari 2014. Untuk memastikan implementasi dari paket kebijakan ini, dan sebagai tanda koordinasi yang baik dalam proses reformasi tersebut, Pemerintah telah membentuk suatu tim pengawas bersama dengan sejumlah badan pemerintahan yang berbeda, termasuk Unit Kerja Presiden untuk Pengawasan dan Pengendalian Pembangunan (UKP4). Sektor swasta telah menyambut baik pengumuman paket kebijakan itu (yang memfokuskan ke dalam negeri), suatu hal yang semakin menunjukkan bahwa reformasi sangatlah mendesak dibutuhkan. Indonesia kini berada pada peringkat 120 (dari 189 ekonomi) dalam peringkat Doing Business 2014 dari Kelompok Bank Dunia, suatu kemajuan kecil selama beberapa tahun terakhir. Namun prestasi ini masih berada di bawah kinerja rata-rata regional (Asia Timur dan Pasifik) dan negara-negara pembanding: Filipina, Cina, Thailand, dan Malaysia masing-masing berada pada peringkat 108, 96, 18, dan 6. Kinerja keseluruhan Indonesia hanya sedikit lebih baik dari India dan Kamboja. Catatan: *Lihat, sebagai contoh, Kompas, 7 November 2013 Asing Makin Mendominasi Indonesia dan Bisnis Indonesia, 7 November 2013 Daftar Negatif Investasi Dihapus, Asing makin Leluasa. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 23 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia B. Beberapa perkembangan terkini perekonomian Indonesia 1. Tinjauan lebih dekat terhadap APBN 2014 APBN 2014 yang telah Pada tanggal 25 Oktober 2013, Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) Indonesia menyetujui disetujui oleh DPR APBN Pemerintah untuk tahun 2014. APBN yang disetujui tersebut tidak bersifat ekspansif memproyeksikan dan tidak pula menyertakan reformasi besar apapun dalam penerimaan maupun pengeluaran, defisit sebesar 1,7 kecuali kemungkinan penyesuaian tarif listrik. APBN 2014 memproyeksikan defisit fiskal persen dari PDB, tetapi sebesar 1,7 persen dari PDB secara keseluruhan (Tabel 8). Jumlah penerimaan diperkirakan terdapat risiko yang akan mencapai 1.667,1 triliun rupiah, meningkat sebesar 11,0 persen dari proyeksi signifkan terhadap penerimaan tahun 2013—sedikit diturunkan dari usulan awal Pemerintah sebesar 1.662,5 proyeksi penerimaan triliun rupiah pada RAPBN—sementara jumlah pengeluaran ditargetkan sebesar 1.842,5 dan pengeluaran triliun rupiah, meningkat sebesar 6,7 persen dari proyeksi tahun 2013 dan kenaikan kecil sebesar 1,8 persen dari RAPBN 2014. Namun terdapat risiko penurunan yang signifikan terhadap prospek penerimaan dan pengeluaran akibat asumsi ekonomi makro yang optimis dan kebutuhan pembiayaan fiskal yang meningkat. Asumsi ekonomi makro dan harga Bank Dunia untuk tahun 2014 berbeda dengan APBN yang telah disetujui tersebut (Tabel 9), dengan hasil proyeksi defisit Bank Dunia yang sedikit lebih besar pada 2,1 persen dari PDB. Bagian ini melihat secara lebih rinci tentang prospek APBN tahun 2014. Proyeksi defisit APBN 2014 mengantisipasi penurunan tipis dalam rasio hutang terhadap PDB Pemerintah, anggaran yang lebih menjadi 23 persen dari PDB (Gambar 20), yang mencerminkan sasaran defisit APBN yang kecil dibanding 2013, tidak besar bersama-sama dengan asumsi pertumbuhan PDB sebesar 6,0 persen untuk tahun membantu menjaga 2014 dan tingkat inflasi sebesar 5,5 persen. Faktor-faktor ini sebagian diimbangi dengan posisi fiskal yang dampak proyeksi depresiasi kurs Rupiah terhadap hutang luar negeri Pemerintah dalam berhati-hati secara rupiah. Pencairan dan pembelian kembali obligasi diproyeksikan akan meningkat menjadi keseluruhan tetapi 156 triliun rupiah pada tahun 2014, naik dari 100 triliun rupiah pada APBN-P tahun 2013. kebutuhan Karenanya, kebutuhan pembiayaan bruto dalam nominal diperkirakan akan meningkat pada pembiayaan fiskal tahun 2014 secara nominal (Gambar 21), menurun sedikit terhadap PDB ke 3,8 persen. bruto tetap besar, yaitu Kebutuhan pembiayaan sekuritas bruto diproyeksikan menjadi 362 triliun rupiah (3,5 persen sekitar 3,8 persen dari dari PDB), naik dari 330 triliun rupiah pada tahun 2013, di mana 80,7 persen dari nilai itu PDB diperkirakan akan dipenuhi melalui penerbitan sekuritas dalam negeri. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 24 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 20: APBN 2014 menargetkan defisit yang lebih kecil Gambar 21: …namun kebutuhan pembiayaan hutang bruto dari tahun 2013 dan penurunan lebih lanjut rasio hutang- akan sama dengan tingkatan 2013 yang tinggi PDB … (kebutuhan pembiayaan, Rp triliun dan persentase dari PDB) (persen dari PDB) Securities amortizations and buybacks Budget Deficit (LHS) Government Debt (RHS) External loan amortizations 3 35 Fiscal deficit 450 4.5 Total as percentage of GDP (RHS) 30 400 2 25 350 4.0 300 2 20 250 3.5 1 15 200 10 150 1 100 3.0 5 50 0 0 0 2.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014** 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014** Catatan: *APBN-P, **APBN Catatan: Berdasarkan target sementara untuk 2014; *APBN-P, Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan **APBN Sumber: BI; Kementerian Keuangan Peningkatan sisi Pada sisi penerimaan, proyeksi peningkatan penerimaan sebesar 11,0 persen berasal dari penerimaan yang sasaran penerimaan pajak (naik 11,5 persen dari proyeksi untuk tahun 2013), dan penerimaan paling signifikan bukan pajak (naik 10,4 persen dari 2013, yang merupakan revisi kenaikan yang signifikan adalah kenaikan dibanding kenaikan 1 persen dari proyeksi RAPBN bulan Agustus). Rasio pajak terhadap proyeksi penerimaan PDB diperkirakan sedikit meningkat ke 12,3 persen. Satu-satunya peningkatan yang paling pajak penjualan/PPN signifikan adalah pada pajak penjualan/ PPN, dengan peningkatan sebesar 16,3 persen dari APBN-P tahun 2013 (walau ini di bawah tingkat RAPBN bulan Agustus dengan kenaikan sebesar 22,5 persen). Sementara belanja yang terkait dengan pemilu pada tahun 2014 dapat mendorong peningkatan pajak penjualan dengan meningkatkan belanja konsumsi, bukti- bukti dari dua pemilu nasional yang lalu tentang kemungkinan besarnya pengaruh pemilu tidaklah jelas karena perbedaan kondisi ekonomi. Sebagai tambahan, proyeksi lebih rendahnya pajak penjualan/PPN pada tahun 2013 (realisasi hingga November 2013 mencapai 77,9 persen dari sasaran APBN-P 2013) berkontribusi kehati-hatian Bank Dunia terhadap proyeksi penerimaan APBN 2014. Pemerintah berencana Pada sisi pengeluaran, ciri utama pada APBN 2014 adalah penurunan subsidi listrik sebesar untuk kembali 28,6 persen dibanding tahun 2013 (71,4 triliun rupiah pada tahun 2014 dari 100,0 triliun meningkatkan tarif rupiah pada tahun 2013). Pada tanggal 1 Oktober, PLN melakukan kenaikan tarif listrik listrik pada tahun tahap akhir untuk tahun ini. Tarif listrik telah ditingkatkan sebesar 4,3 persen setiap triwulan 2014… selama tahun 2013, dengan jumlah kumulatif sekitar 15 persen kenaikan tahunan dibanding tahun 2012. Penyesuaian harga itu tidak dikenakan bagi rumah tangga dengan konsumsi daya yang rendah untuk golongan 450 hingga 900 VA. Namun, Pemerintah juga telah menyisihkan 10,4 triliun rupiah dana cadangan untuk subsidi listrik tahun 2014. DPR telah menyetujui peningkatan tarif listrik untuk pengguna industri dan komersial tertentu hingga tingkat pemulihan biaya, namun rincian implementasinya masih dalam pembahasan. Pemerintah juga merencanakan untuk menghapus subsidi listrik bagi pelanggan industri besar, namun waktunya masih didiskusikan. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 25 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia … namun belanja Jumlah pengeluaran Gambar 22: Subsidi energi tetap menghabiskan bagian subsidi energi secara diproyeksikan akan sedikit yang signifikan dari APBN keseluruhan tetap menurun sebagai persentase dari (Rp triliun) signifikan terhadap PDB, dari 18,3 pada 2013 ke 2012 LKPP 2013 APBN-P 2014 APBN jumlah pengeluaran 17,8 persen pada 2014 (Gambar 700 20 21). APBN 2014 menyertakan Pertumbuhan nominal pada 600 11.9 penurunan total belanja subsidi 2014 (RHS) sebesar 4,1 persen dibanding 500 10 APBN 2013 (333,7 triliun 400 -5.9 rupiah pada 2014 dibanding 300 12.9 348,1 triliun rupiah pada 2013). 6.4 -2.2 0 200 Penurunan ini diakibatkan 13.9 penurunan sebesar 28,6 persen 100 dalam subsidi listrik yang 0 -10 dibahas di atas, sebagian diimbangi dengan peningkatan subsidi bukan energi sebesar 6,8 persen, termasuk pupuk, raskin dan bibit (dari 48,3 triliun rupiah pada 2013 ke 51,6 triliun Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan rupiah pada 2014). Anggaran pengeluaran untuk subsidi BBM pada tahun 2014 adalah sebesar 210,7 triliun rupiah, yang merupakan peningkatan sebesar 10,8 triliun rupiah dari proyeksi tahun 2013, mencerminkan proyeksi harga pasar BBM yang lebih tinggi dalam Rupiah, mengimbangi dampak dari kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni. Dengan demikian, belanja subsidi masih menjadi bagian yang signifikan dari jumlah pengeluaran secara keseluruhan (Gambar 22), sebesar 15 persen dari pengeluaran Pemerintah dalam APBN 2014 (dibanding 17,0 persen yang diproyeksikan untuk tahun 2013) atau 22,6 persen dari belanja Pemerintah pusat. Belanja pegawai APBN 2014 juga memproyeksikan peningkatan belanja pegawai sebesar 12,9 persen (dari diproyeksi meningkat 233,0 triliun rupiah pada 2013 ke 263,0 triliun rupiah), yang mencerminkan rencana secara signifikan peningkatan gaji pokok sebesar 6 persen dan peningkatan pensiun sebesar 4 persen, serta proses reformasi birokrasi yang terus berjalan dalam empat belas kementerian/lembaga (dimana K/L tersebut akan menerima tambahan dana untuk meningkatkan gaji pokok). Belanja barang diproyeksikan akan meningkat sebesar 6,4 persen pada tahun 2014 dibanding sasaran pada APBN-P tahun 2013, walau terdapat rencana penurunan belanja operasional. Anggaran belanja sosial meningkat sebesar 13,9 persen, menjadi 91,8 triliun rupiah pada 2014, termasuk belanja untuk Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional (SJSN) yang baru sebesar 19,9 triliun rupiah. Namun, penutupan Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat (BLSM) pada akhir tahun 2013, membatasi peningkatan belanja sosial secara keseluruhan. …sementara belanja Belanja modal ditargetkan mencapai 184,2 triliun rupiah, turun sebesar 2,2 persen dari modal hanya alokasi pada APBN-P 2013. Perkembangan ini patut diperhatikan menimbang kenaikan ditargetkan pada 1,8 tahunan belanja modal yang cukup tinggi dalam beberapa tahun terakhir , meskipun persen dari PDB peningkatan daya serap dapat meningkatkan realisasi belanja secara nominal daripada alokasi anggaran. Secara relatif terhadap PDB, tingkat sasaran belanja ini hanya mencapai 1,8 persen, tingkat yang sama seperti tahun 2012. Walau tingkat belanja modal ini tampaknya kecil dibanding kebutuhan yang mendesak untuk mengatasi kesenjangan infrastruktur di Indonesia, tantangan pencairan anggaran merupakan kendala utama dalam pelaksanaan proyek-proyek infrastruktur.2 2 Pembahasan lebih lanjut terhadap tantangan pelaksanaan anggaran dalam sektor infrastruktur di Indonesia lihat IEQ Juli 2012. IEQ edisi bulan Maret dan Oktober 2013 membahas analisis belanja investasi infrastruktur Indonesia dan stok modal dan membahas pentingnya peningkatan kualitas infrastruktur untuk pertumbuhan kegiatan ekonomi. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 26 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Bank Dunia Bank Dunia memproyeksikan besar defisit fiskal pada tahun 2014 akan mencapai 2,1 persen memproyeksikan dari PDB, berdasarkan pada asumsi-asumsi ekonomi makro yang berbeda dari asumsi yang defisit yang sedikit digunakan untuk menyusun APBN (Tabel 8). Dengan dampak yang belum pasti dari lebih besar pada 2,1 pengaruh pemilu dalam mendorong belanja konsumsi, proyeksi penurunan lebih lanjut dari persen dari PDB untuk harga minyak dunia, dan depresiasi Rupiah, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan bahwa jumlah tahun 2014 penerimaan nominal akan meningkat sebesar 9,7 persen dibanding 2013, lebih kecil dibanding sasaran pertumbuhan nominal Pemerintah Indonesia sebesar 11 persen. Selain itu, perlemahan Rupiah semakin menekan pengeluaran, terutama melalui subsidi BBM; seperti disoroti pada IEQ edisi bulan Oktober. Akibatnya, penurunan jumlah biaya subsidi BBM diperkirakan tidak akan tercapai pada tahun 2014 dibanding tahun 2013 walau dengan peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni 2013, karena penghematan yang diharapkan telah terkikis oleh harga BBM dalam denominasi Rupiah yang lebih tinggi. Tergantung tren harga-harga minyak mentah dunia dan kurs tukar, terdapat risiko yang signifikan bahwa belanja subsidi energi dapat melampaui anggarannya pada tahun 2014. Tabel 8: Defisit fiskal yang disetujui pada tahun 2014 adalah 1,7 persen dari PDB, sedikit di atas usulan sebelumnya (Rp triliun, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Rp Triliun Persen dari PDB 2012 2013 2014 2014 2012 2013 2014 2014 Aktuil Aktuil APBN-P RAPBN APBN APBN-P RAPBN APBN diaudit diaudit A. Penerimaan, terdiri dari 1.338 1.502 1.663 1.667 16,2 15,9 16,1 16,1 1. Penerimaan pajak 981 1.148 1.310 1.280 11,9 12,2 12,7 12,3 PPh 465 539 592 586 5,6 5,7 5,7 5,7 Migas 83 74 68 76 1,0 0,8 0,7 0,7 Non-migas 382 465 523 510 4,6 4,9 5,1 4,9 Pajak penj./PPN 338 424 519 493 4,1 4,5 5,0 4,8 PBB 29 27 26 25 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,2 Cukai 95 105 114 116 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,1 Pajak dagang int’l 50 48 54 54 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 2. Penerimaan non pajak 352 349 351 385 4,3 3,7 3,4 3,7 Sumber daya alam 226 204 198 226 2,7 2,2 1,9 2,2 Migas 206 181 171 197 2,5 1,9 1,7 1,9 Non-migas 20 23 27 29 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 Bukan pajak lainnya 126 145 153 159 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 B. Pengeluaran 1.491 1.726 1.817 1.842 18,1 18,3 17,6 17,8 1. Pemerintah pusat 1.011 1.197 1.230 1.250 12,3 12,7 11,9 12,0 Pegawai 198 233 277 263 2,4 2,5 2,7 2,5 Barang 141 203 204 216 1,7 2,1 2,0 2,1 Modal 145 188 206 184 1,8 2,0 2,0 1,8 Pembayaran bunga 101 113 120 121 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 Subsidi 346 348 336 334 4,2 3,7 3,2 3,2 Subsidi energi 306 300 285 282 3,7 3,2 2,8 2,7 BBM 212 200 195 211 2,6 2,1 1,9 2,0 Listrik 95 100 90 71 1,1 1,1 0,9 0,7 Subsidi non-energi 40 48 52 52 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 Sosial 76 81 56 92 0,9 0,9 0,5 0,9 2. Transfer ke daerah 481 529 586 593 5,8 5,6 5,7 5,7 C. Neraca primer -53 -112 -35 -54 -0,6 -1,2 -0,3 -0,5 D. Keseluruhan neraca -153 -224 -154 -175 -1,9 -2,4 -1,5 -1,7 E. Pembiayaan bersih 175 224 154 175 2,1 2,4 1,5 1,7 I. Pembiayaan DN 199 241 173 196 2,4 2,6 1,7 1,9 II. Pembiayaan LN (bersih) -23 -17 -19 -21 -0,3 -0,2 -0,2 -0,2 Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 27 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Kerangka Anggaran APBN 2014 yang disetujui juga menyertakan pembaruan Kerangka Anggaran Jangka Jangka Menengah Menengah untuk periode tahun 2015-2017, yang memproyeksikan pencapaian surplus secara memproyeksikan keseluruhan pada tahun 2016 (Tabel 10) dan penurunan lebih lanjut dari rasio hutang pencapaian surplus terhadap PDB menjadi 23 persen dari PDB. Pemerintah memperkirakan terus terjadinya secara keseluruhan aliran bersih negatif untuk pembiayaan luar negeri. Perkiraan prospek fiskal ini didukung pada tahun 2016… oleh sasaran pertumbuhan ekonomi di atas 7 persen dari PDB mulai dari tahun 2015 dan selanjutnya, disertai dengan laju inflasi yang stabil (3-5 persen) dan kurs tukar Rupiah hingga 10.000 rupiah per dolar AS. Produksi minyak diperkirakan akan berangsur-angsur meningkat selama tiga tahun ke depan, walau proyeksi telah diturunkan dibanding yang tercantum di dalam APBN tahun 2013 (1.010 – 1.030 ribu barel per hari pada tahun 2016). Jumlah penerimaan nominal diperkirakan akan meningkat sebesar rata-rata 13 persen antara tahun 2015 dan 2017, sementara pengeluaran direncanakan akan menyusut secara bertahap sebagai bagian dari PDB, dari hampir 18 persen dari PDB menjadi sedikit di atas 16 persen pada tahun 2017. … sasaran yang Sejalan dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang belakangan terjadi dan ekspektasi mungkin akan sulit base case Bank Dunia, proyeksi ekonomi makro pada Kerangka Anggaran Jangka Menengah untuk dicapai yang diperbarui tampaknya sulit untuk dicapai. Selain itu, pergeseran ke surplus anggaran pada tahun 2016 sebesar 0,2 persen PDB akan membutuhkan pemangkasan belanja sebesar 2 poin persentase, atau peningkatan penerimaan sebesar 1 poin persentase, dari PDB. Kemungkinan kedua lebih mungkin, sementara penurunan belanja sebesar 2 poin persentase tampaknya akan menjadi tantangan dengan terbatasnya ruang diskresioner, kecuali bila dicapai melalui pemangkasan subsidi, yang membutuhkan reformasi besar-besaran. Mengingat kebutuhan pembangunan Indonesia, upaya memperbaiki proporsi belanja yang disertai dengan peningkatan penerimaan terhadap PDB lebih mungkin dibanding menurunkan jumlah belanja untuk mencapai neraca fiskal yang positif. Tabel 9: Asumsi ekonomi makro dan harga telah direvisi ke arah yang konservatif dibanding RAPBN bulan Agustus 2012 2013 2014 2014 2014 Aktuil APBN-P RAPBN APBN Bank Dunia diaudit Pertumbuhan PDB riil (persen) 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,0 5,3 IHK (yoy, persen) 4,3 7,2 4,5 5,5 6,8 Kurs tukar (Rp/dolar AS) 9.384 9.600 9.750 10.500 11.800 Harga minyak mentah (dolar AS/barel) 113 108 106 105 103 Produksi minyak (ribu barel/hari) 861 840 870 870 870 Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 28 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 10: Kerangka Anggaran Jangka Menengah memproyeksikan surplus secara keseluruhan pada tahun 2016 (Rp triliun, kecuali dinyatakan lain) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 APBN-P APBN Proyeksi % % % % % Triliun Triliun Triliun Triliun Triliun dari dari dari dari dari Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp PDB PDB PDB PDB PDB A. Penerimaan 1.502 15,9 1.667 16,1 1,891 16,5 2.129 16,4 2.381 16,8 1. Penerimaan pajak 1.148 12,2 1.280 12,3 1,513 13,2 1.746 13,4 2.003 14,2 2. Penerimaan bukan pajak 349 3,7 385 3,7 374 3,3 381 2,9 377 2,7 B. Pengeluaran 1.726 18,3 1.842 17,8 1,944 17,0 2.104 16,2 2.306 16,3 I. Pemerintah pusat 1.197 12,7 1.250 12,0 1,268 11,1 1.346 10,4 1.473 10,4 Kementerian/lembaga 622 6,6 n.a. n.a. 663 5,8 725 5,6 823 5,8 Non-Kementerian/non-lembaga 575 6,1 n.a. n.a. 606 5,3 620 4,8 650 4,6 II. Transfer ke daerah 529 5,6 593 5,7 675 5,9 759 5,8 833 5,9 C. Neraca primer -112 -1,2 -54 -0,5 75 0,7 155 1,2 207 1,5 D. Neraca keseluruhan -224 -2,4 -175 -1,7 -53 -0,5 25 0,2 75 0,5 E. Pembiayaan bersih 224 2,4 175 1,7 53 0,5 -25 -0,2 -75 -0,5 I. Pembiayaan dalam negeri 241 2,6 196 1,9 98 0,9 28 0,2 -22 -0,2 II. Pembiayaan luar negeri, bersih -17 -0,2 -21 -0,2 -46 -0,4 -53 -0,4 -53 -0,4 Asumsi ekonomi utama Pertumbuhan PDB riil (persen) 6,3 6,0 6,4 - 7,2 6,5 - 7,4 6,7 - 7,6 IHK (yoy, persen) 7,2 5,5 3,0 - 5,0 3,0 - 5,0 2,5 - 4,5 Kurs tukar (Rp/dolar AS) 9.600 10.500 9.700 - 10.000 9.700 - 10.000 9.700 - 10.000 Harga minyak mentah (dolar AS/barel) 108 105 100 - 115 100 - 115 100 - 115 Produksi minyak (ribu barel/hari) 840 870 960 - 980 940 - 960 920 - 940 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 29 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia 2. Update tentang kemiskinan di Indonesia Bagian ini melihat tren Laju pengentasan kemiskinan di Indonesia telah melambat pada beberapa tahun terakhir. terakhir dalam Bagian ini mencermati faktor-faktor yang berkontribusi kepada fenomena ini. Selain itu, kemiskinan, dan sejalan dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi, berlanjutnya risiko inflasi, dan harga prospek penurunan beras yang relatif tinggi, prospek tingkat kemiskinan nasional pada paruh kedua tahun 2013 lebih lanjut dalam dan paruh pertama tahun 2014 akan dicermati. Bagian ini diakhiri dengan pembahasan jangka pendek hingga tentang langkah-langkah yang dapat diambil untuk mempercepat pengentasan kemiskinan menengah pada masa depan. Tingkat kemiskinan Angka resmi tingkat kemiskinan Gambar 23: Laju pengentasan kemiskinan beberapa tahun nasional Indonesia Indonesia per bulan Maret terakhir merupakan yang paling lambat selama satu turun sebesar 0,6 poin 2013, menurut Badan Pusat dekade persentase selama Statistik (BPS), adalah sebesar (tingkat kemiskinan, persen, dan perubahan kemiskinan, poin persentase) setahun hingga bulan 11,4 persen, yang merupakan 20 2.5 Maret 2013, penurunan 0,6 poin persentase 18 Tingkat kemiskinan 2 melanjutkan tren dari 12,0 persen pada bulan 16 (LHS) perlambatan Maret 2012. Selama empat 14 1.5 pengentasan tahun terakhir, penurunan 1 12 kemiskinan pada tingkat kemiskinan tahunan Perubahan dalam beberapa tahun telah lebih kecil dari 1 poin 10 0.5 kemiskinan (RHS) terakhir persentase, dan penurunan 8 0 sebesar 0,5 dan 0,6 poin 6 -0.5 persentase masing-masing pada 4 tahun 2012 dan 2013 adalah 2 -1 penurunan yang paling rendah 0 -1.5 selama satu dekade, dengan pengecualian peningkatan hampir 2 poin pada tahun 2006 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia yang terutama disebabkan oleh lonjakan harga bahan pangan (Gambar 23). Gambar 24: Rumah tangga miskin yang masih tersisa di Gambar 25: …sementara peran kaum miskin dan rentan Indonesia berada lebih jauh di bawah garis kemiskinan semakin berkurang dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dibanding sebelumnya pada periode tahun 2000-an… belakangan ini (rata-rata konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita tahun 2013 menurut (perubahan tahunan dalam rata-rata konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita persentil, sebagai rasio dari garis kemiskinan nasional) tahun 2013 menurut desil, persen) 1.4 10 1.2 Garis kemiskinan 8 1.0 Pertumbuhan dalam nilai 6 mean pengeluaran 0.8 Rumah tangga miskin semakin jauh terletak di 4 0.6 bawah garis kemiskinan 0.4 2 Pertumbuhan dalam nilai mean desil pengeluaran 0.2 0 0.0 -2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sumber: Susenas; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: Susenas; Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 30 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Faktor yang Terdapat sejumlah alasan penyebab perlambatan laju pengentasan kemiskinan. Satu faktor berkontribusi terhadap penting adalah bahwa dengan tingkat kemiskinan di Indonesia yang mendekati 10 persen, perlambatan ini adalah rumah tangga miskin yang tersisa terletak semakin jauh di bawah garis kemiskinan (Gambar semakin sulitnya 24). Hal ini berarti dibutuhkan pertumbuhan konsumsi yang lebih tinggi lagi untuk mencapai mereka yang mempertahankan laju tingkat pengentasan kemiskinan tahunan seperti yang tercatat di masa masih tergolong lalu. Pada saat yang sama, kaum miskin dan rentan semakin tidak memiliki andil dalam miskin, dan masih pertumbuhan ekonomi belakangan ini dibanding penduduk Indonesia yang lebih berada. tidak meratanya Setengah dari penduduk Indonesia yang paling miskin mencatat pertumbuhan konsumsi riil pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita sebesar nol atau bahkan sedikit negatif antara tahun 2012 dan 2013, dibandingkan pertumbuhan nilai mean konsumsi pada keseluruhan populasi sebesar 4 persen dan rata-rata sebesar 7 persen bagi dua desil yang paling berada (Gambar 25). Sementara Kurva Insidensi Pertumbuhan (Growth Incidence Curves, GIC) sangatlah peka terhadap pemilihan tanggal awal dan akhir, pola pada Gambar 25 sejalan dengan GIC-GIC lainnya sejak tahun 2003.3 Kotak 3: BLSM, Susenas, dan pengukuran kemiskinan Dengan peningkatan harga bahan pangan dan bukan pangan akibat peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni 2013 yang diperkirakan akan berpengaruh buruk terhadap rumah tangga miskin dan rentan dalam jangka pendek, Pemerintah Indonesia menyiapkan paket kompensasi berjumlah 29,05 triliun rupiah atau sekitar 74 persen dari jumlah penghematan subsidi BBM. Paket tersebut terdiri dari dua komponen utama: (a) Program Kompensasi Khusus, dan (b) Program Percepatan dan Perluasan Perlindungan Sosial (P4S) (lihat IEQ edisi bulan Juni 2013 untuk pembahasan lebih lanjut). Komponen utama dari P4S adalah Bantuan Langsung Sementara Masyarakat (BLSM) sejumlah 150.000 rupiah untuk setiap rumah tangga per bulan selama empat bulan, yang diberikan kepada 15,5 juta rumah tangga dalam dua kali pembayaran. BLSM dimaksudkan untuk mencegah lonjakan kemiskinan sementara yang disebabkan oleh peningkatan sementara dalam inflasi keranjang kemiskinan sebagai akibat dari naiknya harga BBM bersubsidi. Bank Dunia memproyeksikan bahwa tanpa BLSM, tingkat kemiskinan akan meningkat menjadi 12,1 persen pada bulan September 2013, namun berkat BLSM, tingkat kemiskinan akan dapat terus menurun. Sejauh mana penurunan tersebut, seperti diukur lewat SUSENAS (Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional yang dilakukan oleh BPS, yang menghitung perkiraan kemiskinan) bulan September, tergantung atas sejumlah faktor. Tepatnya, penetapan waktu pencairan BLSM, dan bagaimana dana itu digunakan, akan berdampak signifikan terhadap seberapa besar pengaruh BLSM terhadap kemiskinan terukur. Modul konsumsi SUSENAS mengajukan pertanyaan yang terperinci kepada rumah tangga tentang konsumsi pangan dan bukan pangan. Untuk berbagai komoditas bahan pangan, survei tersebut menanyakan konsumsinya selama satu minggu terakhir, dan untuk komoditas bukan pangan, survei itu menanyakan tentang konsumsinya selama tiga bulan terakhir. SUSENAS dilaksanakan selama bulan September 2013. Tahap pertama bantuan dicairkan pada bulan Juli dan Agustus. Jika bantuan itu digunakan untuk bahan pangan, maka tidak akan tercatat pada SUSENAS, karena tidak terjadi pada minggu sebelum survei tersebut. Jika digunakan bukan untuk bahan pangan, maka akan tercatat sebagai terjadi selama tiga bulan terakhir, namun dapat dilaporkan secara kurang tepat karena hanya berdasarkan ingatan responden. Jika dana itu digunakan untuk keperluan lain seperti membayar hutang atau tabungan, maka dana itu sama sekali tidak akan tertangkap oleh survei, yang hanya menanyakan hal-hal terkait dengan konsumsi. Tahap kedua dicairkan pada bulan September, pada waktu yang bersamaan dengan pelaksanaan SUSENAS. Apakah dana itu diterima sebelum survei akan menentukan apakah penggunaannya tertangkap oleh survei itu. Pelajaran apa yang dapat dipetik dari pengalaman pendahulu BLSM, yaitu Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT), tentang tanggapan rumah tangga? Dalam rangkaian laporannya pada tahun 2012 tentang Program Bantuan Sosial dan Tinjauan Pengeluaran Publik (Social Assistance Program and Public Expenditure Review), analisis Bank Dunia menunjukkan bahwa dana bantuan umumnya dikonsumsi dalam satu minggu setelah diterima (yang berarti waktu pelaksanaan pencairan dana relatif terhadap survei sangat berarti), dan bahwa umumnya dana itu digunakan untuk kebutuhan dasar – bahan pangan, dan juga barang-barang bukan pangan seperti biaya pakaian atau pendidikan. Pengalaman BLT pada tahun 2008-09 mencatat jumlah yang lebih besar yang digunakan bagi pendidikan, karena pencairannya dilakukan menjelang mulainya tahun ajaran baru, sementara pada bantuan tahun 2005-06 lebih banyak digunakan untuk bahan pangan. Dengan dua pencairan pada tahun 2013 dilakukan hanya sedikit setelah dimulainya tahun ajaran baru, mencakup bulan Ramadan, dan menjelang hari raya Lebaran, para rumah tangga tampaknya akan lebih banyak mengkonsumsi dan mengurangi penabungan, namun tidaklah jelas apakah konsumsinya akan untuk bahan pangan atau keperluan lainnya. Catatan: Untuk analisis lebih lanjut tentang pengalaman BLT, lihat pada Bank Dunia. 2012. Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) temporary unconditional cash transfer. 3 Lihat, misalnya, pembahasan tentang perubahan pola peningkatan konsumsi Indonesia dari 1996 sampai 2010 dalam laporan IEQ edisi Maret 2011. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 31 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Penggunaan bantuan Tahun ini memiliki karakteristik perlambatan pertumbuhan dan peningkatan inflasi. Secara tunai BLSM sebagai khusus, peningkatan indeks harga keranjang kemiskinan tahun-ke-tahun (pengukuran harga kompensasi rumah dari sekeranjang barang-barang dan jasa-jasa yang umumnya dikonsumsi oleh kaum miskin) tangga miskin dan pada triwulan ketiga tahun 2013 mencapai 8,8 persen, yang didorong oleh pengaruh rentan terhadap peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi dari bulan Juni. Dengan peningkatan ini, biaya hidup kenaikan harga BBM untuk kaum miskin tampaknya akan meningkat lebih tinggi dari peningkatan pendapatan bulan Juni tampaknya atau upah rumah tangga, dan tingkat kemiskinan bulan September 2013 diperkirakan akan akan mencegah meningkat. Dengan menerapkan hasil realisasi ekonomi makro terhadap model data-mikro kenaikan tingkat kemiskinan di Indonesia, dan dengan melakukan abstraksi terhadap dampak paket kemiskinan jangka kompensasi terkait dengan peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi, tingkat kemiskinan bulan pendek bulan September diproyeksikan akan mencapai 12,1 persen, atau peningkatan sebesar 0,4 poin September 2013 persentase dari September 2012 (dan 0,7 poin dari Maret 2013). Namun, tingkat kemiskinan dapat menarik manfaat jangka pendek dari pengaruh sementara pembayaran BLSM pada pertengahan tahun, dengan dua pembayaran sebesar 300.000 rupiah kepada 15,5 juta rumah tangga pada bulan Juli/Agustus dan September. Sebagai akibatnya, peningkatan inflasi sementara tampaknya terimbangi oleh peningkatan sementara dalam pendapatan bagi rumah tangga miskin dan rentan, dan Bank Dunia memproyeksikan bahwa tingkat kemiskinan bulan September akan menunjukkan penurunan dalam tingkat kemiskinan. Apakah tingkat penurunan ini berarti atau tidak berarti akan bergantung pada penetapan waktu pencairan, bagaimana dana itu digunakan, dan waktu pelaksanaan survei rumah tangga (lihat Kotak 3). Namun sasaran tingkat Pembayaran BLSM sementara tidak akan mempengaruhi tren kemiskinan untuk jangka kemiskinan waktu yang lebih panjang, karena BLSM hanya berlangsung selama empat bulan. Dengan Pemerintah sebesar 8- tingkat kemiskinan pada bulan Maret 2013 sebesar 11,4 persen, bahkan apabila laju 10 persen pada tahun penurunan kemiskinan kembali ke 1 poin persentase per year, angka sasaran Pemerintah 2014 tampaknya tidak sebesar 8-10 persen pada tahun 2014 (RPJM 2009-14) tetap tidak akan tercapai. Selain itu, akan tercapai… perlambatan pertumbuhan (diproyeksikan oleh Bank Dunia akan menjadi 5,1 persen tahun- ke-tahun hingga Maret 2014) dan tingginya inflasi (7,2 persen tahun-ke-tahun hingga Maret 2014) menyiratkan bahwa pencapaian penurunan 1 poin persentase pada tahun yang berakhir pada bulan Maret 2014 tidaklah mungkin. Model kemiskinan Bank Dunia memproyeksikan tingkat kemiskinan pada bulan Maret 2014 akan menjadi 11,0-11,1 persen (0,3-0,4 poin lebih rendah dari bulan Maret 2013), yang menunjukkan semakin melambatnya laju pengentasan kemiskinan. …walau sebagian akan Namun, perluasan bantuan sosial jangka panjang yang dimulai pada triwulan ketiga tahun bergantung pada 2013 (lihat pembahasan berikutnya) dapat mempengaruhi pencapaian tingkat kemiskinan. perluasan program- Selain BLSM yang bersifat sementara, Program Percepatan dan Perluasan Perlindungan program bantuan Sosial (P4S) (lihat Kotak 3 dan IEQ edisi bulan Juli 2013), juga menyertakan perluasan sosial jangka panjang manfaat yang signifikan dari dua program bantuan sosial jangka panjang – Program Keluarga yang belakangan Harapan (PKH) dan program Bantuan untuk Siswa Miskin (BSM). Pelaksanaan program- dilakukan program ini secara signifikan (serta waktu pelaksanaan pencairan – lihat Kotak 3) dapat membantu mempercepat pengentasan kemiskinan, dan membuka peluang untuk mewujudkan sasaran tingkat kemiskinan tahun 2014. Namun, pelaksanaan yang signifikan tampaknya baru akan terjadi pada paruh kedua tahun 2014. Pengentasan Secara historis, belanja Indonesia untuk bantuan sosial sebagai persen dari PDB (sekitar 0,5 kemiskinan persen) berada di bawah belanja negara-negara tetangganya (1,0 persen) dan negara-negara berkelanjutan akan berpenghasilan menengah pada umumnya (1,5 persen).4 Walaupun perluasan yang baru membutuhkan dilakukan pada program-program jangka panjang yang telah disebutkan di atas merupakan perluasan bantuan langkah maju yang cukup baik, tetap dibutuhkan komitmen terhadap peningkatan bantuan sosial yang sosial yang berkelanjutan untuk membantu mempercepat pengentasan kemiskinan. Sama berkelanjutan… pentingnya, pelaksanaan yang tepat bagi program-program tersebut juga akan menentukan efektivitas mereka sebagai alat pengentas kemiskinan.5 4 Lihat Bank Dunia (2012) Melindungi yang Miskin dan Lemah di Indonesia - Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable in Indonesia. 5 Lihat juga Bank Dunia (2012), Melindungi yang Miskin dan Lemah di Indonesia - Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable in Indonesia. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 32 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia …dengan Pemerintah Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) telah diperluas dari 1,1 juta rumah tangga penerima baru-baru saja menjadi 2,4 juta pada tahun 2013, dengan rencana perluasan lebih lanjut menjadi 3,2 juta meningkatkan rumah tangga pada tahun 2014. Bersamaan dengan itu, tingkat rata-rata bantuan akan Program Keluarga meningkat dari 1,4 juta rupiah menjadi 1,8 juta rupiah per tahun per rumah tangga. Harapan-nya secara Peningkatan jumlah bantuan ini tampaknya akan meningkatkan kecukupan bantuan program signifikan… dalam mengimbangi biaya layanan kesehatan dan pendidikan bagi keluarga-keluarga miskin. …dan program Serupa dengan hal tersebut di atas, jumlah pelajar miskin yang berhak menerima Bantuan bantuan dana bagi untuk Siswa Miskin (BSM) akan meningkat hampir dua kali lipat pada tahun 2013 dari 8,7 siswa miskin juta menjadi 16,6 juta penerima bantuan. Namun, dampaknya terhadap kemiskinan akan bergantung kepada penggunaan program tersebut oleh siswa di rumah tangga miskin. Besar bantuan juga akan meningkat secara signifikan: bantuan bagi sekolah dasar (SD) akan meningkat dari 360.000 rupiah ke 450.000 rupiah per tahun per siswa, sementara bantuan untuk sekolah menengah pertama (SMP) akan meningkat dari 550.000 rupiah ke 750.000 rupiah per siswa per tahun. Pemerintah juga Program-program bantuan sosial tetap lainnya juga diubah menurut P4S, namun hanya meningkatkan subsidi untuk sementara, dan tampaknya hanya akan memberikan dampak yang kecil bagi Raskin untuk pengentasan kemiskinan pada jangka panjang. Dengan program Subsidi Beras bagi sementara bagi Masyarakat Berpendapatan Rendah (Raskin), rumah tangga penerima berhak membeli kelompok tambahan 15 kg beras per bulan selama tiga bulan (Juni, Juli, dan Agustus) pada harga yang berpenghasilan sangat disubsidi. Alokasi kedua ini menambah alokasi awal sebesar 15 kg beras yang dapat rendah, walau program dibeli setiap bulan. Namun, karena tantangan yang dihadapi oleh sistem penyampaian ini terus menghadapi Raskin, para rumah tangga berisiko tampaknya hanya dapat membeli jumlah beras yang jauh tantangan dalam lebih kecil dari jumlah yang dialokasikan kepada mereka melalui program kompensasi pelaksanaannya tersebut. Hal ini mempengaruhi besarnya manfaat de facto yang akan diterima oleh para rumah tangga melalui program Raskin, serta melemahkan manfaat dan dampak program. (lihat laporan Bank Dunia tahun 2012 tentang Program Bantuan Sosial dan Tinjauan Pengeluaran Publik (Social Assistance Program and Public Expenditure Review) untuk penjelasan lebih lanjut tentang tantangan pelaksanaan Raskin). Perlu digarisbawahi, Pelaksanaan reformasi program melalui P4S juga disertai dengan peluncuran Kartu reformasi bantuan Perlindungan Sosial (KPS) dan sejalan dengan Basis Data Terpadu (BDT) yang merupakan sosial akhir-akhir ini basis data terpadu penerima potensial dari program perlindungan sosial. Penggunaan KPS telah disertai dengan dan BDT memiliki implikasi penting bagi potensi bantuan lintas program, terutama bagi peluncuran Kartu penduduk yang sangat miskin. Sebagai contoh, keluarga penerima PKH secara otomatis akan Perlindungan Sosial memiliki akses ke BSM, BLSM, dan Raskin. Ketika dilaksanakan secara selaras, program- dan Basis Data program itu berpotensi untuk saling memperkuat manfaat program satu sama lain, sehingga Terpadu penerima mendorong terwujudnya upaya pengentasan kemiskinan yang lebih kuat. bantuan Pengentasan Berlanjutnya perluasan manfaat dan cakupan program-program perlindungan sosial tetap, kemiskinan masa termasuk PKH dan BSM, dapat membantu memperkuat pengentasan kemiskinan pada masa depan tidak hanya depan. Peluncuran program-program baru yang melindungi risiko-risiko yang kini belum melalui peningkatan terlindungi, termasuk program bantuan tunai dan natura yang menargetkan kaum manula program perlindungan dan berkebutuhan khusus, juga akan membantu melindungi penduduk yang rentan. Melalui sosial namun juga perluasan dan integrasi lebih lanjut dari program-program perlindungan sosial yang ada, dan melalui upaya peluncuran program-program baru untuk memberi perlindungan terhadap risiko-risiko yang membangun belum terlindungi, sistem perlindungan sosial itu akan semakin mampu melindungi para pertumbuhan inklusif, keluarga secara memadai dari berbagai goncangan dan membantu mereka mengelola risiko seperti fokus pada yang mempengaruhi mereka sepanjang siklus kehidupan. Program-program yang keterampilan dan memberikan pelatihan keterampilan dan menyokong lapangan kerja formal juga dibutuhkan penciptaan pekerjaan untuk mendorong perkembangan pasar tenaga kerja dan semakin meningkatkan pengentasan yang berkualitas kemiskinan (seperti dibahas pada Bagian berikutnya). Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 33 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia C. Indonesia tahun 2015 dan selanjutnya: Tinjauan pilihan 1. Pasar tenaga kerja di Indonesia: pencapaian dan tantangan terkini Indonesia telah Pasar tenaga kerja Indonesia telah menunjukkan pemulihan berkelanjutan sejak pertengahan berhasil dalam tahun 2000-an, setelah penurunan akibat krisis keuangan Asia Timur tahun 1997/1998. menciptakan lapangan Kinerja Indonesia terkait laju ketenagakerjaaan merupakan salah satu yang terkuat di wilayah pekerjaan, dan kini Asia Timur Pasifik. Keberhasilan Indonesia di dalam penciptaan lapangan kerja pada pasar tenaga kerjanya dasarnya karena adanya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan, lingkungan ekonomi yang berkembang yang mendukung, dan sektor jasa yang berkembang pesat. Hal ini telah mendorong harus mengatasi kemajuan bertahap dalam ketersediaan lapangan pekerjaan di sektor jasa dan formalisasi sejumlah tantangan… ekonomi, terutama di daerah-daerah perkotaan, umumnya melalui peningkatan dalam pekerjaan formal yang bergaji. Walau mengalami berbagai perkembangan yang menggembirakan tersebut, Indonesia menghadapi tantangan dalam menciptakan pekerjaan yang lebih banyak dan lebih baik seiring dengan terus berlanjutnya transformasi struktural negara ini (seperti pergerakan pekerja dari kegiatan-kegiatan yang kurang produktif ke kegiatan-kegiatan yang sangat produktif). Bagian ini meninjau pencapaian-pencapaian terbaru dalam pasar tenaga kerja Indonesia dan memaparkan tantangan-tantangan utama yang dihadapi. …seperti peningkatan Secara khusus, terdapat tiga tantangan utama yang harus diatasi. Pertama, sektor ekonomi pertumbuhan terbesar dalam hal ketenagakerjaan masih memiliki nilai tambah yang rendah, dan penciptaan ketenagakerjaan dalam pekerjaan sejak tahun 2001 telah didorong oleh perluasan sektor-sektor berproduktivitas sektor produktivitas rendah. Kedua, sektor informal masih berukuran besar, yang mempekerjakan lebih dari 50 yang lebih tinggi serta persen dari seluruh jumlah penduduk yang bekerja, dengan pekerjaan-pekerjaan informal mengatasi masih yang memiliki upah yang lebih rendah, stabilitas yang lebih rapuh dan tanpa disertai akses tingginya informalitas kepada tunjangan. Ketiga, investasi pada sektor-sektor dengan produktivitas yang lebih tinggi dan kelangkaan terbentur kendala terbatasnya ketersediaan tenaga kerja yang terampil. Jika tantangan- pekerja terampil tantangan tersebut tetap tidak tertangani, terdapat risiko bahwa peningkatan kesejahteraan yang baru terjadi akan menemui kendala, yang kemudian berdampak terhadap perlambatan laju pengentasan kemiskinan dan peningkatan ketidaksetaraan. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 34 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Angkatan kerja Menurut data terbaru Sakernas bulan Februari 2013, dari 175 juta penduduk berusia di atas Indonesia, yang 15 tahun, jumlah angkatan kerja Indonesia adalah 121 juta, yang mana 114 juta memiliki merupakan nomor 4 pekerjaan (Gambar 26). Sejak bulan Februari 2006, tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja terbesar di dunia, terhadap jumlah penduduk usia kerja meningkat dengan lambat namun stabil, dari 66,7 mencapai 121 juta persen menjadi 69,2 persen, sementara, pada periode waktu yang sama, persentase jumlah pekerja pada awal 2013 pekerja terhadap penduduk usia kerja meningkat dengan lebih cepat, dari 59,0 persen ke 65,1 dan lapangan kerja persen, menyamai tingkatan yang tercatat pada pertengahan tahun 1990-an. Sejalan dengan yang terus hal itu, antara tahun 2006 dan 2012, elastisitas lapangan kerja terhadap pertumbuhan (nilai berkembang… tambah riil)6 mencapai 0,56 (yang berarti peningkatan 1 persen dalam nilai tambah riil akan meningkatkan lapangan kerja sebesar 0,56 persen, secara rata-rata lintas sektor, selama periode tersebut), dibanding 0,47 yang tercatat antara tahun 2001 dan 2005, dan 0,79 pada awal tahun 1990-an, dengan rata-rata elastisitas diperkirakan sama dengan 0,5 antara tahun 1990 dan 2012 (dan tidak berbeda secara signifikan dari 0 selama krisis tahun 1998-99). Selain tren ketenagakerjaan yang positif ini, tingkat pengangguran juga terus menurun (dari 10,4 persen pada bulan Februari 2006 ke 5,9 persen pada bulan Februari 2013). Namun, indikator tingkat pengangguran agregat tidak terlalu memberikan gambaran yang baik tentang pasar tenaga kerja di Indonesia, seperti di negara-negara berpenghasilan menengah lainnya, akibat tingginya tingkat pekerja informal, seperti dibahas di bawah. Gambar 26: Dari 121 juta angkatan kerja Indonesia, 114 juta Gambar 27: Peningkatan lapangan kerja di Indonesia sejak memiliki pekerjaan (kurang dari setengahnya ada di sektor 2005 termasuk yang terkuat di kawasan formal) (tingkat ketenagakerjaan, persen; tingkat ketenagakerjaan (pekerja, pengangguran, dan pekerjaan formal, juta) didefinisikan sebagai pekerja berusia 15+ tahun sebagai persentase jumlah penduduk usia 15+ tahun) Unemployment 80 140 Informal employment Formal employment Vietnam 120 75 Cina 100 70 80 Thailand 60 65 Indonesia 40 60 20 Malaysia Filipina 0 55 Feb-05 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas Sumber: WDI Bank Dunia dan Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas untuk Indonesia …walau tingkat Dibanding negara-negara tetangganya, Indonesia telah melampaui Filipina dan Malaysia pada ketenagakerjaan paruh kedua tahun 2000-an (Gambar 27), walau masih tertinggal dari sejumlah negara Indonesia terus pembandingnya yang setara, seperti Kamboja, Vietnam, Cina, dan Thailand, terutama karena tertinggal di belakang relatif buruknya partisipasi perempuan dan tenaga muda usia di pasar tenaga kerja. sejumlah negara Sesungguhnya tingkat partisipasi tenaga kerja perempuan di Indonesia baru-baru saja tetangga menembus angka batas 50 persen, dan partisipasi tenaga muda di bawah 25 tahun masih berada di bawah 40 persen, masih belum pulih ke tingkatannya pada awal tahun 1990-an (sebesar 47 persen), setelah penurunan berkepanjangan dan pemulihan yang lambat yang baru dimulai pada pertengahan tahun 2000-an. Yang lebih memprihatinkan, rendahnya partisipasi tenaga kerja usia muda juga diikuti dengan tetap tingginya tingkat NEET (tenaga muda yang sedang tidak bekerja, tidak belajar, maupun tidak dalam pelatihan), seperti dibahas di bawah. 6 Diperkirakan dengan menggunakan data panel lapangan kerja dan nilai tambah riil bagi 9 sektor perekonomian (ditetapkan pada Gambar 30) antara tahun 1990 dan 2012. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 35 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Sebagian besar Antara bulan Agustus 2001 dan Agustus 2012, lebih dari 20 juta pekerjaan baru telah tercipta penciptaan lapangan (pertumbuhan sebesar 22 persen), dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan pekerjaan tahunan sebesar kerja berada pada 2,3 persen sejak bulan Februari 2006 (Gambar 28). Dari 20 juta pekerjaan yang tercipta sektor formal, dan tersebut, 16,4 juta (82 persen) merupakan pekerjaan formal, sesuai dengan definisi pekerjaan dalam sektor jasa formal yang digunakan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) sejak 20017. Sektor jasa berkontribusi terhadap sebagian besar peningkatan kesempatan kerja ini, dengan 16,8 juta pekerjaan baru tercipta untuk sektor tersebut (84 persen dari jumlah keseluruhan), dan sebagai akibatnya persentase dari sektor jasa terhadap jumlah pekerjaan telah mencapai 43 persen. Sektor industri hanya mampu menciptakan 4 juta pekerjaan baru dan saat ini merupakan 21 persen dari jumlah pekerjaan, sementara pada sektor pertanian (dengan 35 persen dari jumlah pekerja masih dipekerjakan) sekitar 860.000 pekerjaan telah hilang selama periode tersebut. Perluasan pekerjaan dalam bidang jasa juga telah mendorong peningkatan pekerjaan pada sektor formal, dengan 85 persen dari pekerjaan yang tercipta pada sektor jasa sejak tahun 2001 merupakan pekerjaan formal, dibanding 57 persen di sektor industri. Gambar 28: Pertumbuhan pekerjaan tahun-ke-tahun telah Gambar 29: Pekerjaan formal berkontribusi empat per lima bertahan sejak 2005, walau melambat setelah 2011 dari jumlah pekerjaan yang tercipta antara 2001 dan 2012 (pertumbuhan pekerjaan tahun-ke-tahun, persen) (kontribusi kumulatif terhadap pertumbuhan jumlah pekerjaan dengan pekerjaan pada tahun 2001=100) 24 Informal Employment 124 5.0 growth since 2001 (%) 4.5 20 120 Formal Employment 4.0 growth since 2001 (%) 16 116 3.5 Total Employment 3.0 12 growth since 2001 112 (RHS) 2.5 8 108 2.0 4 104 1.5 1.0 0 100 0.5 -4 96 0.0 -8 92 Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas Penciptaan pekerjaan Penciptaan pekerjaan lebih kuat di daerah-daerah perkotaan, dengan peningkatan lebih tinggi di kesempatan kerja sebesar 45 persen sejak tahun 2001 dibanding pertumbuhan sebesar 6 perkotaan, dan persen yang tercatat di daerah perdesaan. Pertumbuhan pekerjaan perkotaan secara bertahap perbedaan geografis telah melampaui tingkat pertumbuhan perdesaan selama dekade yang lalu, dan sejak tahun dalam tingkat 2008 pekerjaan di daerah perkotaan telah meningkat lebih cepat dibanding populasi angkatan pekerjaan tetap ada kerja. Urbanisasi juga sangat terkait dengan peningkatan pekerjaan formal, dengan 72 persen pekerjaan yang tercipta pada daerah perkotaan merupakan pekerjaan formal. Peningkatan 7 Menurut definisi baru pekerja formal/informal yang digunakan oleh BPS sejak tahun 2001, pekerja informal didefinisikan menurut sejumlah karakteristik yang terkait dengan “status pekerjaan” dan “jabatan”. “Jabatan” mencakup 9 kategori: Tenaga Profesional; Teknisi dan yang sejenis; Tenaga Kepemimpinan dan Ketatalaksanaan; Tenaga Tata Usaha dan yang sejenis; Tenaga Usaha Penjualan; Tenaga Jasa; Tenaga Usaha Pertanian, Kehutanan, Perikanan dan Perburuan; Tenaga Produksi, Operator Alat Angkutan dan Pekerja Kasar; Lainnya. “Status pekerjaan” termasuk 7 kategori: Berusaha sendiri, berusaha dibantu buruh tidak tetap, berusaha dibantu buruh tetap, pekerja, pekerja bebas dalam sektor pertanian, pekerja bebas dalam sektor non-pertanian, pekerja keluarga tak dibayar. Pekerja informal didefinisikan sebagai: semua pekerja keluarga tak dibayar; semua pekerja bebas atau yang bekerja sendiri, kecuali mereka yang bekerja sebagai Tenaga Profesional, Teknisi dan yang sejenis, Tenaga Kepemimpinan dan Ketatalaksanaan, Tenaga Tata Usaha dan yang sejenis; berusaha dibantu buruh tidak tetap dalam pertanian atau bidang usaha lain. Perubahan utama dari definisi yang lama adalah sebelum tahun 2001 tidak ada kelompok “pekerja bebas” di dalam Sakernas, sehingga pekerja bebas dalam bidang pertanian dan konstruksi disertakan di dalam sektor formal sebagai buruh/karyawan dibayar. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 36 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia pekerjaan formal ini dapat dijelaskan dengan peningkatan jumlah buruh/karyawan yang dibayar (atau pekerja yang bergantung/dependen pada gaji) yang berkontribusi terhadap hampir 70 persen dari jumlah penciptaan pekerjaan (Gambar 30). Dari segi geografis, walau terdapat sejumlah konvergensi tingkat pekerjaan provinsi dengan tingkat nasional yang dapat ditunjukkan selama dekade yang lalu, perbedaan yang penting masih dapat terlihat pada daerah-daerah dengan tingkat pekerjaan yang tinggi (di atas 75%), seperti Bali dan Papua (yang kinerjanya tampaknya dapat dijelaskan sebagai akibat meroketnya industri ekstraksi sumber daya alam, terutama dalam minyak sawit), dan daerah-daerah dengan tingkat pekerjaan yang tetap bertahan rendah (sedikit di atas 55%) seperti Sulawesi Utara dan Aceh. a. Tantangan transformasi struktural yang sedang dilakukan tetapi belum lengkap Sebagian besar Sisi lain dari perkembangan pasar tenaga kerja yang menggembirakan itu adalah bahwa pertumbuhan sektor-sektor dengan produktivitas tenaga kerja yang rendah (dengan produktivitas tenaga pekerjaan terjadi pada kerja didefinisikan sebagai nilai tambah dibagi dengan jumlah pekerja) dengan lebih sektor-sektor dengan rendahnya jumlah pekerja berpendidikan tinggi, masih mendominasi lapangan kerja, dan nilai tambah dan penciptaan pekerjaan umumnya terkonsentrasi pada sektor-sektor berproduktivitas rendah keterampilan yang yang tidak memerlukan keterampilan tinggi. Dari jumlah pertumbuhan pekerjaan yang rendah tercatat dari tahun 2001 hingga 2012, 30 persen terjadi pada jasa kemasyarakatan, sosial dan personal (dengan 6,9 juta pekerjaan baru yang tercipta), dan 28 persen dalam sektor perdagangan besar, perdagangan, dan eceran (5,7 juta). Manufaktur hanya menyumbang 16 persen dari jumlah pertumbuhan (3,3 juta), sedikit di atas konstruksi (14 persen, setara dengan 2,9 juta pekerjaan baru). Korelasi yang negatif antara pertumbuhan pekerjaan dan pertumbuhan produktivitas antara tahun 2001 dan 2012 (Gambar 31), tampaknya menunjukkan bahwa penciptaan pekerjaan tidak sepenuhnya meningkatkan produktivitas, dan masih terdapat ruang untuk meningkatkan efisiensi alokasi ulang tenaga kerja dari pertanian ke industri dan jasa, serta dari kegiatan berproduktivitas rendah ke tinggi baik di dalam maupun lintas sektor. Gambar 30: Sektor-sektor bernilai tambah rendah dalam jasa Gambar 31: Pertumbuhan pekerjaan dan produktivitas mencatat kontribusi terbesar terhadap penciptaan pekerjaan pekerja memiliki korelasi yang negatif antara tahun 2001 dan 2012 (pertumbuhan pekerjaan dan produktivitas tenaga kerja, 2001- (kontribusi sektor dan status pekerjaan terhadap jumlah 2012, persen) pertumbuhan pekerjaan antara 2001 dan 2012, persen) 120 Laju pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja 140 Transporta 100 Soc.&pers.svcs si 4,5% 30.3 Trade & retail 100 80 Manufacturing Construction 68.6 60 Pertanian Dagang & 60 28.5 Finance Pegawai 35,1% ritel 20,9% Sos. & jasa pers. 20 40 Mining 15,4% 16.3 Transport Konstruksi 6,1% 14.9 Pekerja -20 Listrik, gas 20 Electricity,gas 27.3 lepas Manufaktur 0,2% 7.7 Keuangan Agriculture Bekerja sendiri 4.9 Tambang 0 -60 1,4% 2,4% Sector Employment -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 -20 status Laju pertumbuhan pekerjaan Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas Catatan: Ukuran gelembung menunjukkan bagian tiap sektor dalam jumlah pekerjaan pada 2012. Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas D e s em b e r 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 37 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Sebagai akibatnya, Bukti ini konsisten dengan temuan-temuan bahwa rata-rata upah riil hanya naik relatif sedikit upah hanya tumbuh pada periode tahun 2002 hingga 2012 dibanding pertumbuhan produktivitas secara agregat. secara moderat, namun Upah riil (termasuk upah dari pegawai di sektor formal) meningkat sebesar 21 persen sejak kesenjangan tahun 2001 (Gambar 32), rata-rata sebesar 2 persen secara pertumbuhan tahunan riil, yang pendapatan yang tampaknya cukup moderat dibanding rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB riil tahunan sebesar 5,4 penting tetap bertahan persen, dan terhadap jumlah pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja secara keseluruhan antara pekerja formal yang hampir mencapai 50 persen selama periode yang sama. Gambar 32 juga menunjukkan dependen dan pekerja bahwa pertumbuhan dalam penerimaan riil (pendapatan dari pekerjaan bagi yang berusaha non-dependen… sendiri dan pekerja bebas, baik formal maupun informal) berjalan jauh lebih lambat, hanya sebesar 5 persen selama seluruh periode itu, yang mengakibatkan tetap bertahannya jurang pendapatan antara pekerja formal dependen (buruh/karyawan dibayar) dan pekerja non- dependen. …dan terdapat variasi Pembagian per sektor juga menunjukkan perbedaan lain yang tidak kalah penting: upah pada pertumbuhan upah pertambangan telah meningkat dua kali lebih cepat dari rata-rata nasional, yang yang besar lintas mencerminkan lonjakan pendapatan pada sektor itu yang berasal dari harga komoditas dan sektor permintaan dunia selama periode tersebut. Namun, potensi perluasan pekerjaan di sektor ini tetap terbatas. Sebaliknya, jumlah upah pada sektor yang secara potensial membutuhkan keterampilan tinggi seperti manufaktur telah meningkat lebih rendah dari rata-rata nasional, yang mencerminkan buruknya pertumbuhan produktivitas. Selain itu, variasi dalam upah riil di dalam sektor jasa, mulai dari keuangan hingga perdagangan dan eceran, telah terlihat jelas, sekali lagi mencerminkan perbedaan dalam intensitas keterampilan. Gambar 32: Terdapat perbedaan upah yang penting antar Gambar 33: Pekerjaan di sektor formal meningkat, namun sektor, di dalam sektor dan antar jenis pekerjaan kebanyakan pekerja masih bekerja dalam pekerjaan yang (rata-rata pendapatan bulanan riil dari pekerjaan per sektor, ribu rentan Rp, 2007 sebagai tahun rujukan) (komposisi pekerjaan menurut status, persen) Wages 2012 Earnings 2012 40 Wages 2001 Earnings 2001 National avg 2012 National avg 2001 35 2,000 30 pekerjaan 1,500 pemilik usaha 25 bekerja sendiri 1,000 20 500 15 pekerja keluarga tidak digaji 0 10 pekerja lepas 5 0 Catatan: Penerimaan merujuk pada pendapatan dari pekerjaan Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas untuk pekerja sendiri dan bebas, baik formal maupun informal Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas b. “Pekerjaan baik” meningkat, namun banyak pekerja yang tetap informal dan rentan Walau jumlah Keberadaan sektor informal yang besar, yang masih mempekerjakan lebih dari 50 persen dari “pekerjaan baik” jumlah pekerja (70 persen di daerah pedesaan) tetap menjadi salah satu tantangan yang paling meningkat, lebih dari serius bagi pasar tenaga kerja Indonesia. Walau persentase “pekerjaan baik” terhadap 50 persen jumlahnya keseluruhan pekerjaan (didefinisikan sebagai persentase dari pekerja formal dependen) masih bersifat informal meningkat dari 27,7 persen ke 36,4 persen antara bulan Agustus 2001 dan Agustus 2012 dan tingkat kerentanan (Gambar 33), sebagian besar pekerja masih dalam keadaan sangat rentan, termasuk 18 juta bagi banyak pekerja pekerja keluarga yang tidak dibayar dan 11,5 juta pekerja bebas (masing-masing 16 persen tetap tinggi dan 10 persen dari keseluruhan pekerjaan). Selain itu, penurunan dalam jumlah pekerja bebas Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 38 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia dalam bidang pertanian telah diimbangi dengan peningkatan pekerja bebas dalam sektor- sektor bukan pertanian, dan walau jumlah penduduk bekerja sebagai buruh tetap telah meningkat, penduduk yang bekerja sebagai buruh tidak tetap masih berjumlah 82 persen dari seluruh penduduk yang bekerja. Akhirnya, walau jumlah penduduk yang berusaha sendiri (atau bekerja sendiri dalam pengertian yang ketat), yang lebih memiliki kemungkinan untuk rentan dan berproduktivitas rendah, menurun jumlahnya, mereka masih merupakan 18,5 juta (17 persen dari keseluruhan pekerjaan). Pekerjaan yang rentan menawarkan perlindungan yang lebih rendah terhadap risiko maupun gejolak, tidak memungkinkan akses terhadap tunjangan sosial, dan memberikan pendapatan yang lebih rendah. Sebagai contoh, pada bulan Agustus 2012, masing-masing pekerja bebas dan pekerja sendiri mencatat penghasilan rata- rata sebesar 48 persen dan 65 persen dari rata-rata upah pegawai, dibanding 45 persen dan 75 persen pada tahun 2001, yang kurang lebih dapat menjelaskan meningkatnya ketidaksetaraan secara keseluruhan yang tercatat di Indonesia selama periode tersebut. Terdapat variasi yang Keberadaan bentuk pekerjaan yang rentan menunjukkan variasi yang tinggi antar sektor dan tinggi dalam proporsi provinsi, selain juga diakibatkan ketidakpatuhan yang persisten terhadap kebijakan Upah pekerja yang rentan Minimum (lihat IEQ edisi bulan Desember 2012). Keterbatasan data merintangi lintas sektor dan kemungkinan pengukuran dampak peningkatan yang tajam dalam tingkatan upah minimum daerah geografis lintas provinsi terhadap pekerjaan pada tahun 2013, (Jakarta mencatat peningkatan yang melebihi 40 persen). Namun, data Sakernas menunjukkan bahwa hingga tahun 2012, sektor dengan jumlah pekerja tertinggi (perdagangan besar dan eceran, dan jasa kemasyarakatan, sosial dan personal) mencatat persentase yang tinggi dari pekerja yang dibayar dengan upah di bawah aturan minimum: masing-masing sebesar 50 persen dan 45 persen, yang meningkat secara tajam bagi pekerja informal (masing-masing sebesar 80 persen dan 86 persen). Angka- angka ini bahkan lebih tinggi pada sektor pertanian, dengan hampir 80 persen dari seluruh pekerja menerima pembayaran di bawah upah minimum. Pada tingkat provinsi, ketidakpatuhan mencapai lebih dari 60 persen di Nusa Tenggara Barat dan Sulawesi Barat (lebih dari 75 persen bagi pekerja informal), dan mendekati atau lebih dari 50 persen pada 12 provinsi lain (termasuk Jakarta dan Yogyakarta, dan sangat tinggi di Lampung, Aceh, Sulawesi Selatan, dan Kalimantan Selatan). c. Menangani angkatan kerja yang sebagian besar berketerampilan rendah Angkatan kerja Hampir 50 persen dari angkatan kerja Indonesia hanya memiliki pendidikan dasar, sementara Indonesia umumnya hanya 6,3 persen yang memiliki gelar universitas, atau diploma 4 tahun (Gambar 34). tidak terampil, dengan Kenyataan ini terjadi meskipun Indonesia mencatat kemajuan besar dalam meningkatkan hanya 6,3 persen yang pendaftaran pada pendidikan menengah dan tinggi bagi generasi termuda, dan peningkatan berpendidikan persentase angkatan kerja dengan pendidikan menengah pertama dan atas dari 35 persen tinggi… menjadi 44 persen antara tahun 2001 dan 2012. Angkatan kerja berketerampilan rendah merupakan tantangan serius bagi peningkatan produktivitas dan untuk memenuhi permintaan pemilik usaha dalam pasar tenaga kerja yang cepat berubah, terutama dengan rendahnya kecenderungan perusahaan-perusahaan Indonesia untuk memberikan pelatihan. Sebagai akibat dari masalah ketidaksesuaian ini, suatu persentase yang cukup dramatis, yaitu lebih dari 40 persen, dari tenaga muda berusia 15-24 tahun, tetap tidak memiliki pendidikan, pelatihan, atau pekerjaan per tahun 2012 (Gambar 35), tanpa terlihat adanya tren peningkatan sejak tahun 2001. Hal ini akan benar-benar dapat merintangi kemungkinan mereka menemukan pekerjaan yang baik di masa depan. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 39 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 34: Walau keterampilan angkatan kerja telah Gambar 35: Lebih dari 40 persen dari tenaga muda meningkat, kurang dari 8 persen memiliki gelar universitas Indonesia berusia 15-24 tahun tidak memiliki pekerjaan, (komposisi tenaga kerja menurut pendidikan tertinggi, persen) pendidikan, atau pelatihan (tenaga muda usia 15-24 tahun yang sedang tidak bekerja, belajar atau berlatih, persen) 70 60 Male Female dasar atau lebih rendah 60 50 50 40 40 menengah pertama & atas 30 30 20 20 universitas atau diploma 4 tahun 10 10 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia menggunakan Sakernas …yang merupakan Secara ringkas, pasar tenaga kerja Indonesia, yang didukung oleh penciptaan pekerjaan yang salah satu tantangan kuat, sedang bertransformasi menuju formalisasi yang lebih besar bagi angkatan kerjanya. pasar tenaga kerja Namun, terdapat sejumlah tantangan penting yang masih tersisa: sebagian besar pekerjaan yang dihadapi oleh yang tercipta pada dekade lalu berasal dari sektor-sektor berproduktivitas rendah; lebih dari para pembuat 50 persen dari pekerjaan yang ada masih merupakan pekerjaan informal, tanpa perlindungan kebijakan kepada pekerja; sebagian besar angkatan kerja masih tidak terampil, dan, perempuan dan tenaga muda masih mencatat tingkat partisipasi yang rendah dalam angkatan kerja. Tantangan-tantangan tersebut harus ditangani oleh para penyusun kebijakan dan semua pemangku kepentingan, sebelum berakhirnya bonus demografis dari peningkatan jumlah angkatan kerja. Selain itu, integrasi wilayah regional yang lebih besar sejalan dengan Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN pada tahun 2015 akan membawa tekanan persaingan yang lebih tinggi lagi terhadap pasar tenaga kerja dalam negeri. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 40 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia 2. Kapasitas desa dan pembangunan di Indonesia Temuan penelitian Demokratisasi dan desentralisasi di Indonesia pascareformasi tahun 1998 turut membawa baru menjelaskan perubahan hubungan antara Pemerintah dan masyarakat. Pada masyarakat perdesaan, warga tentang perubahan desa kini bebas menggunakan hak pilihnya untuk memilih kepala desa tanpa harus meminta kapasitas masyarakat persetujuan terlebih dahulu kepada pemerintah tingkat kabupaten. Kepala desa kini memiliki perdesaan dan peran akses yang lebih baik terhadap sumber daya kabupaten. Juga terjadi penekanan yang semakin pemerintahan desa meningkat pada pembangunan berbasis masyarakat (community-driven development, CDD) di dalam menangani seluruh penjuru negeri, yang memberi lebih banyak suara dan kekuasaan untuk mengambil masalah desa dalam keputusan kepada masyarakat dalam memilih dan menerapkan proyek-proyek pembangunan Indonesia yang yang paling sesuai dengan kebutuhan desa. Bagian ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan tentang terdesentralisasi dan apakah dan bagaimana kapasitas masyarakat terpengaruh oleh pergeseran kebijakan nasional demokratis dalam demokratisasi, desentralisasi, dan CDD serta interaksinya yang rumit pada tingkat desa atau yang setara sejalan dengan waktu, melalui penelaahan hasil-hasil penelitian terbaru Bank Dunia tentang Penelitian Kelembagaan Tingkat Daerah yang ketiga (World Bank Local Level Institutions Study, LLI3), yang dilaksanakan pada tahun 2012.8 a. Sejarah singkat pembangunan berbasis masyarakat di Indonesia Program Tahun 2013 merupakan ulang tahun ke-15 dari penerapan Program Nasional Pemberdayaan pembangunan berbasis Masyarakat (PNPM), program CDD terbesar di dunia. Sejak prakarsanya pada tahun 1998 masyarakat utama di sebagai Program Pengembangan Kecamatan (Kecamatan Development Program) atau PPK, Indonesia, yaitu PNPM bekerja berdasarkan prinsip bahwa masyarakat desa memiliki kemampuan untuk PNPM, berpijak pada mengidentifikasi, memprioritaskan, memilih, dan menerapkan proyek-proyek pembangunan kapasitas masyarakat yang paling sesuai dengan kebutuhan mereka demi meningkatkan kesejahteraan mereka.9 … Prinsip ini disarikan dari temuan Penelitian Kelembagaan Tingkat Lokal pertama (LLI1) yang dilakukan oleh Bank Dunia pada tahun 1996. …mengikuti penelitian Selaras dengan peningkatan fokus masyarakat pembangunan global pada lembaga-lembaga yang menemukan desa dan modal sosial pada waktu itu, LLI1 dilaksanakan dengan tujuan untuk memahami bahwa sementara peran lembaga-lembaga tingkat desa dan modal sosial dalam penyampaian layanan dasar dan masyarakat masih peningkatan kesejahteraan. Penelitian ini – yang dilakukan pada 48 desa di tiga provinsi (Jawa memiliki kapasitas Tengah, Jambi, Nusa Tenggara Timur) – menemukan bahwa, walau pada saat itu Indonesia bertindak kolektif masih berada di bawah pemerintahan yang sangat tersentralisasi dan otoriter, kapasitas desa untuk mengatasi – yang didefinisikan sebagai kemampuan untuk mengatasi masalah-masalah bersama secara masalah bersama, hal kolektif atau gotong royong – tetap mengakar di sebagian besar desa yang diteliti. Namun, ini dirintangi oleh kapasitas ini kerap dilemahkan oleh pemerintah desa, yang melaksanakan proyek-proyek kebijakan dan proyek pembangunan berdasarkan prinsip atas ke bawah (top-down) tanpa memperhitungkan pembangunan kebutuhan khusus di tingkat desa.10 Temuan-temuan ini membuka jalan bagi perancangan pemerintah dari atas ke dan penerapan PPK, yang memberikan ruang terbuka alternatif untuk menyampaikan bawah (top-down) kebutuhan pembangunan dan sumber daya guna melaksanakan proyek-proyek yang dipilih. yang tidak Hanya setahun setelah dimulainya PPK, Indonesia mengalami perubahan politik yang besar memperhitungkan dengan jatuhnya rezim Suharto pada tahun 1998 dan dimulainya era desentralisasi pada kebutuhan desa tahun 2001. Demokratisasi dan Terbitnya fajar demokrasi dan desentralisasi menimbulkan pertanyaan tentang dampak dari desentralisasi mulai perubahan-perubahan tersebut terhadap kapasitas desa dan hubungan antara pemerintah dan membuka ruang untuk masyarakat. Secara khusus, apakah pembukaan ruang politis membawa kesempatan yang 8 Catatan ini mengambil dari Wetterberg, A., Dharmawan, L., & Jellema, J.R. (2013, forthcoming) The Local Level Institutions III: Overview Report. World Bank/PNPM Support Facility. Jakarta.Untuk informasi lebih lanjut tentang fasilitas pendukung PNPM, silakan kunjungi http://pnpm-support.org 9 Pada tahun 2007, Pemerintah Indonesia memperluas KDP dan proyek kembarannya untuk perkotaan bernama Urban Poverty Project, UPP, dan meluncurkan program-program itu di bawah naungan satu program yang disebut PNPM. 10 Chandrakirana, K. (1999). Local capacity and its implications for development: The case of Indonesia. World Bank/Bappenas. Local Level Institutions Study, Jakarta; Evers, P. (2003). Village governments and their communities. World Bank/Bappenas. Local Level Institutions Study, Jakarta. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 41 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia meningkatkan lebih baik bagi masyarakat desa untuk turut serta di dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk hubungan antara proyek-proyek pembangunan dan dengan demikian meningkatkan kesesuaian antara proyek- penduduk dan proyek dan kebutuhan desa? Untuk menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan itu, penelitian lanjutan pemerintah desanya, LLI2 dilakukan pada tahun 2000-2001 dengan penekanan kepada perubahan-perubahan di dan memperkuat dalam hubungan pemerintah-masyarakat desa dan bagaimana perubahan-perubahan itu kapasitas desa… mempengaruhi tata kelola dan kesejahteraan desa. Penelitian itu menemukan bahwa kapasitas desa masih bertahan pada sebagian besar daerah yang diteliti dan terdapat indikasi peningkatan kesempatan bagi partisipasi masyarakat desa dalam pengambilan keputusan proyek-proyek pembangunan, walau sebagian besar proyek- proyek tidak memberikan hasil yang memuaskan. Sebagai contoh, insiden protes terhadap para kepala desa meningkat, namun umumnya tanpa membawa perubahan riil atau berkelanjutan apapun. Badan Perwakilan Desa (BPD) yang baru dibentuk, dengan tugas meminta akuntabilitas kepala desa, mulai bekerja di beberapa daerah, walau kesimpangsiuran akan fungsi dan keterbatasan mereka dalam hal dukungan operasional agak membatasi kemampuan pelaksanaan kerja mereka.11 Namun, kesan belum adanya perubahan yang berarti ini memang dapat dipahami, karena penelitian itu dilakukan hanya beberapa tahun setelah gejolak ekonomi dan politik pada tahun 1997/1998 dan sekitar masa reformasi desentralisasi tahun 2001. …namun apakah Lebih dari satu dekade pascapergeseran politik tahun 1998, desentralisasi tahun 2001, dan perubahan tetap penerapan PPK/PNPM di lebih dari 60.000 desa, perubahan-perubahan itu diperkirakan berlangsung setelah telah mempengaruhi kapasitas desa. Untuk lebih memahami perubahan-perubahan tersebut, lebih dari satu dekade? penelitian LLI ketiga dilakukan pada tahun 2012, dengan tujuan untuk menelusuri perkembangan kapasitas desa sejak LLI2, yang dilakukan lebih dari satu dekade yang lalu, untuk mengetahui apakah telah terdapat pergeseran dalam pengaruh kelompok masyarakat yang berbeda-beda kepada pengambilan keputusan pemerintah, implementasi proyek dan sumber daya negara pada tingkat kabupaten dan perdesaan, dan apakah pergeseran- pergeseran tersebut memiliki keterkaitan dengan perubahan pada kapasitas lokal. b. Memahami perubahan kapasitas desa sejak tahun 2001 Penelitian LLI Pada penelitian-penelitian LLI, kapasitas desa didefinisikan sebagai kemampuan untuk mengumpulkan data memecahkan masalah bersama secara kolektif. Untuk mengukur hal ini, penelitian-penelitian tentang jenis dan itu mengumpulkan dan menelusuri data tentang jenis dan jumlah masalah-masalah bersama jumlah masalah yang dihadapi oleh desa-desa yang diteliti dan menyelidiki apakah masalah-masalah itu bersama, apakah dipecahkan secara bersama dan, jika ya, bagaimana tingkat keberhasilannya. Desa-desa itu ditangani, dan jika ya, kemudian dikelompokan ke tiga kelompok kapasitas (tinggi, menengah, rendah) berdasarkan apakah berhasil frekuensi tindakan kolektif dan tingkat keberhasilan dalam menghadapi masalah. Kotak 4 memaparkan ikhtisar dari metodologi survei tersebut. Masyarakat Untuk menelusuri perubahan kapasitas sejak LLI2, penelitian LLI3 pertama-tama melaporkan tingkat mentabulasi jumlah dan jenis-jenis masalah yang dijumpai pada desa-desa yang diteliti dan masalah sosial yang kemudian melihat kepada jumlah masalah yang berhasil diselesaikan secara kolektif. lebih rendah pada 2012 Penelitian itu menemukan bahwa masyarakat menjumpai lebih sedikit masalah bersama dibanding 2001, namun dibanding LLI2 dan bahwa sifat dari masalah-masalahnya telah bergeser. Secara khusus, lebih banyak masalah masyarakat melaporkan lebih banyak masalah-masalah yang berkaitan dengan ekonomi dan ekonomi dan penyampaian layanan, sementara masalah-masalah sosial (seperti judi dan minuman keras) penyampaian layanan hampir tidak pernah disinggung. Juga terdapat lonjakan dalam jumlah masalah “besar” yang sulit diselesaikan pada tingkat daerah, seperti bencana alam dan tingginya harga input bagi produksi pertanian. 11Dharmawan, L. (2002). Dynamics of Local Capacity and Village Governance: Findings from the Second Indonesian Local Level Institutions Study Central Java Report. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 42 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Secara keseluruhan, Angka tindakan kolektif untuk menyelesaikan masalah bersama mencatat penurunan pada kemungkinan seluruh bidang penelitian. Hal ini sebagian dapat dijelaskan oleh peningkatan jumlah masalah keberhasilan “besar” yang tidak dapat ditangani oleh kemampuan masyarakat tersebut. Tingkat masyarakat dalam keberhasilan penyelesaian masalah bersama, seperti yang ditemukan oleh LLI3, relatif sama menyelesaikan seperti pada LLI2. Namun, pola-pola umum ini menutupi adanya variasi yang cukup besar masalah tidak dalam perubahan kapasitas lintas desa-desa yang diteliti. Dari dua puluh desa yang diteliti berubah, namun kembali pada LLI3, hampir setengah (sembilan desa) mempertahankan kapasitas yang sama. terdapat variasi yang Secara khusus, lebih dari setengah desa-desa yang digolongkan sebagai berkapasitas tinggi besar dalam perubahan oleh LLI2, telah menunjukkan kegigihan dengan melanjutkan keberhasilan mereka dalam kapasitas lintas desa mengatasi masalah-masalah yang lebih baru. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa desa-desa berkapasitas tinggi memiliki daya tahan yang kokoh, walau menghadapi pergeseran politik pada dekade yang lalu. Upaya mandiri Seperempat dari desa-desa yang diteliti (lima desa) mencatat peningkatan kapasitas. Sangatlah penduduk desa dengan menggembirakan melihat bahwa seluruh desa kecuali satu yang mencatat peningkatan dukungan kepala desa kapasitas berasal dari desa berkapasitas rendah pada LLI2. Desa-desa berkapasitas rendah, yang reformis telah sesuai definisinya, memiliki sejarah tidak berjalannya mobilisasi secara kolektif, dan membantu tampaknya peningkatan kapasitas desa-desa tersebut pada umumnya didorong oleh upaya meningkatkan penduduk desa itu sendiri, seperti menemukan sumber pendapatan yang lebih baik, kapasitas pada desa- mendapatkan kembali kendali atas sumber daya alam, dan menggunakan berbagai desa yang sebelumnya mekanisme untuk meminta akuntabilitas dari para kepala desa. Faktor-faktor lain yang juga berkapasitas rendah memperkuat upaya masyarakat di desa-desa ini adalah kepala desa yang bersifat reformis yang mendengarkan dan bekerja untuk kepentingan penduduk desa, dan, dalam taraf yang lebih kecil, untuk agen-agen eksternal seperti lembaga swadaya masyarakat (LSM), terutama dalam kaitannya dengan sengketa penggunaan tanah dan hutan. Masalah yang terus Sekitar sepertiga dari desa-desa (enam desa) mencatat penurunan kapasitas. Desa-desa bertahan tentang tersebut terus mengalami berbagai masalah terkait dengan menurunnya sumber daya alam, penurunan sumber seperti akses kepada air minum dan sengketa lahan. Juga terdapat tanda-tanda penurunan daya alam, seperti gotong-royong pada desa-desa itu, yang menunjukkan penurunan modal sosial. Tiga dari akses kepada air desa yang mencatat penurunan kapasitas merupakan desa-desa yang mengalami penurunan minum atau sengketa status dari desa menjadi kelurahan. Hal ini berarti bahwa desa-desa itu tidak lagi memiliki lahan, diperburuk oleh kepala desa terpilih yang bertanggung jawab kepada para penduduk desa.12 Selain itu, pemimpin yang tidak sebagian besar kepala desa pada tiga desa yang tersisa bukanlah kepala desa yang tegas (tidak reformis, akan mampu menerapkan keputusan). Pemimpin yang tidak tanggap dan tidak bekerja bagi menghancurkan kepentingan penduduk desa merupakan salah satu faktor utama yang mendorong penurunan kapasitas desa kapasitas desa. 12Kelurahan dipimpin oleh seorang lurah yang ditunjuk oleh bupati sehingga hanya bertanggung jawab kepada kabupaten, dan bukan kepada penduduk desa. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 43 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 4: Metodologi Penelitian Kelembagaan Desa Penelitian Kelembagaan Tingkat Lokal Tabel 11: Perbandingan Aspek Penelitian Utama pada LLI1, LLI2 dan LLI3 Indonesia (LLI) bersifat longitudinal, LLI1 (1996) LLI2 (2000/2001) LLI3 (2012) menggunakan metode kuantitatif maupun kualitatif, bertujuan untuk Masalah  Kapasitas  Kapasitas desa  Kapasitas desa mengidentifikasi prakondisi untuk dan utama desa  Modal sosial  Modal sosial kendala-kendala yang merintangi kapasitas  Modal sosial  Tata kelola desa  Tata kelola desa desa—yang didefinisikan sebagai  Tata kelola  Tanggapan krisis  Tata kelola kemampuan untuk menyelesaikan masalah desa kabupaten bersama secara kolektif—dan taraf di  PNPM mana struktur negara melengkapi atau menghambat upaya pemecahan masalah Metode  Pengumpulan  Pengumpulan data  Pengumpulan data penelitian data kualitatif kualitatif kualitatif penduduk desa. LLI pertama kali dilakukan pada tahun 1996 pada 48 desa  Survei rumah  Survei rumah  Survei rumah di tiga provinsi (Jawa Tengah, Jambi, dan tangga tangga tangga NTT). Lokasi-lokasi itu dipilih untuk  Etnografi menjamin variasi secara geografis dan Kunjungan 1. Batanghari 1. Batanghari 1. Batanghari sosial-ekonomi. Kabupaten Batanghari (kembali) 2. Merangin 2. Merangin 2. Merangin dan Merangin di Jambi mewakili ke 3. Banyumas 3. Banyumas 3. Muara Jambi Sumatera, dengan ekonomi yang kabupaten 4. Wonogiri 4. Wonogiri 4. Banyumas umumnya berdasarkan pada tanaman 5. Ngada 5. Ngada 5. Wonogiri perkebunan dan perdagangan (karet, 6. Timor Tengah 6. Ngada Selatan 7. Nagakeo kelapa sawit, kopi dll.), infrastruktur transportasi yang relatif baik dan Jumlah 48 40 20 (kualitatif) kepadatan penduduk tingkat menengah. desa 40 (kuantitatif) Kabupaten Banyumas dan Wonogiri di Jawa Tengah mewakili pulau Jawa, daerah dengan populasi terpadat di Indonesia. Kabupaten Ngada dan Timor Tengah Selatan (TTS) di NTT mewakili Indonesia Timur, yang lebih gersang, dengan populasi yang kurang padat dan rata-rata pendapatan yang lebih rendah. Desa-desa tempat penelitian dipilih untuk mencakup masyarakat dataran tinggi maupun rendah dengan berbagai akses ke ibukota kecamatan. Pada LLI2, hanya 40 desa yang ditinjau kembali karena pada saat itu TTS tidak dapat dikunjungi karena alasan keamanan. Pada LLI ketiga yang paling akhir, 20 desa ditinjau kembali untuk pengumpulan data kualitatif sementara data kuantitatif dikumpulkan dari seluruh 40 desa dari LLI2. Tabel 11 menunjukkan perbandingan aspek penelitian utama dari ketiga pelaksanaan LLI. Bagi komponen kualitatif dari penelitian itu, para peneliti melakukan wawancara dengan para narasumber utama yang relevan pada tingkat kabupaten dan desa, seperti bupati (atau sekretaris daerah tingkat kabupaten), pejabat-pejabat dari kantor kabupaten (bidang perencanaan, pembangunan perdesaan/masyarakat), anggota-anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah (DPRD) kabupaten, LSM, kepala desa, perwakilan dari Badan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (BPM)/Lembaga Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (LPM) dan tokoh-tokoh masyarakat/agama/adat. Wawancara itu membantu mengumpulkan data tentang, antara lain, pemecahan masalah, kepemimpinan, profil jaringan dan kelembagaan, serta profil-profil proyek (termasuk PNPM). Penelitian itu juga melakukan serangkaian diskusi kelompok fokus (FGD) dengan anggota masyarakat. Topik-topik FGD termasuk (1) penggunaan lahan, jaringan listrik, dan ancaman sumber daya alam, (2) produksi, konsumsi, ancaman kelangsungan dan kemajuan, (3) peran dan hubungan Pemerintah, serta (4) pemecahan masalah. Bagi komponen kuantitatif, penelitian tersebut melakukan survei panel rumah tangga, termasuk modul-modul tentang karakteristik dan konsumsi rumah tangga, keterlibatan/keturutsertaan rumah tangga di dalam organisasi (formal maupun informal) dan manfaat- manfaat, masalah-masalah umum yang dihadapi oleh rumah tangga di daerahnya, pola kepemilikan lahan dan sumber daya lainnya, kepercayaan dan interaksi sosial, krisis-krisis yang baru terjadi dan mekanisme penyelesaian krisis, pemerintahan desa (kepuasan, transparansi, dan akuntabilitas). Catatan: lihat Wetterberg dkk. 2013 (akan datang) untuk informasi lebih lanjut Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 44 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia c. Demokratisasi, desentralisasi, CDD, dan kapasitas desa… Demokratisasi telah Berkat diterapkannya demokratisasi, penduduk desa kini dapat memiliki kepala desa dengan memungkinkan legitimasi yang kuat, karena mereka dipilih secara demokratis oleh para penduduk desa. Pada penduduk desa untuk masa mantan presiden Suharto, para calon kepala desa harus mendapat persetujuan dari memilih kepala desa pemerintah kabupaten untuk dapat berkampanye dan diangkat. Pemilihan kini dilakukan yang reformis dan pro- secara teratur dan para calon tidak langsung ditetapkan oleh pemerintahan dengan tingkatan masyarakat yang di atas desa. Juga terdapat batas masa bakti, dengan maksimal dua kali masa bakti selama mendukung kapasitas enam tahun, bagi para kepala desa yang diangkat pasca tahun 2001. Demokratisasi juga telah desa… membantu memperkecil ruang bagi kepemimpinan gaya dinasti, yang umum dijumpai pada masa lalu, dan telah memperluas cakupan pencalonan. …dan memberikan Pemilihan yang bebas telah membuat para kepala desa lebih tanggap terhadap kepentingan keunggulan baru bagi warga desa dan mendorong mereka untuk memainkan peran yang lebih kuat dalam para kepala desa, memecahkan masalah-masalah bersama yang teridentifikasi. Kepala desa yang kuat dapat memungkinkan menjadi lebih efektif dalam berurusan dengan pelaku-pelaku eksternal (seperti para investor) mereka untuk dan pemerintahan dengan tingkat di atas desa untuk memecahkan masalah masyarakat. memainkan peran Sebagai contoh, satu kepala desa pada daerah penelitian turut serta dalam kelompok tiga yang lebih besar dalam puluh kepala desa yang meminta persetujuan perbaikan jalan provinsi yang melewati desa- pemecahan masalah desa mereka sebelum pemilihan kembali gubernur petahana (incumbent). Contoh ini menunjukkan keterampilan organisasi yang hebat dan juga kecerdasan para kepala desa untuk mengambil manfaat dari pemerintahan dengan tingkatan di atas desa. Kepala desa yang lain menggerakkan jaringannya, termasuk bekerja sama dengan LSM wilayah dan nasional, untuk mengambil kembali lahan warga dari konsesi yang diberikan oleh pemerintah pusat (walau sayangnya, para warga juga mencurigai bahwa kepala desa itu menerima manfaat yang tidak selayaknya dari upaya tersebut). Desentralisasi telah Kuatnya posisi kepala desa semakin ditingkatkan dengan kenyataan bahwa desentralisasi meningkatkan akses memberikan akses langsung bagi kepala desa kepada bupati dan dinas-dinas sektoral kepala desa terhadap kabupaten yang mengelola dana dalam jumlah yang cukup signifikan dari pemerintah pusat. sumber daya tingkat Sebelumnya kontak seperti ini harus melalui kecamatan. Namun, untuk mendapatkan dana kabupaten… (dan proyek-proyek) dari kabupaten, kepala desa harus bertindak pro-aktif dan memiliki jaringan yang baik, mengunjungi dinas-dinas sektoral dan DPRD, dan secara aktif meminta dukungan terkait dengan proyek-proyek tersebut. Kepala desa dengan jaringan yang terbatas harus bergantung kepada proses resmi perencanaan pembangunan tahunan (yaitu Musyawarah Perencanaan Pembangunan atau Musrenbang) untuk mendapatkan proyek- proyek, suatu proses yang oleh sebagian kepala desa dipandang sebagai formalitas yang tidak produktif. Hal ini menguntungkan kepala desa yang dapat menggunakan akses langsung tambahan, walau kadang-kadang tidak resmi, yang timbul berkat desentralisasi. …namun tanpa Namun, penguatan kepala desa tidak secara otomatis turut menguatkan warga desa, terutama mekanisme ketika mekanisme pengendalian tidak dapat menekan para kepala desa untuk bekerja bagi pengendalian, warga kepentingan warga. Hal ini dapat terlihat pada desa-desa dengan kepala desa yang kuat desa tidak dapat namun berkapasitas rendah. Masyarakat pada desa-desa tersebut tidak dapat memanfaatkan membuat kepala desa perubahan-perubahan pada lingkungan politik dan meminta agar kepala desa bekerja demi untuk bekerja demi kepentingan warga. Desa-desa seperti itu umumnya bergantung kepada pemilihan untuk kepentingan warga menyingkirkan para pemimpin yang tidak responsif pada akhir masa jabatannya. Namun, desa-desa dengan kapasitas yang lebih tinggi dapat membuat para kepala desa untuk menggunakan posisi mereka yang lebih kuat untuk mengatasi masalah warga dan meminta akuntabilitas kepala desa itu melalui mekanisme seperti hukum adat dan tradisi atau BPD yang telah mempertahankan peran awalnya seperti yang ditemukan oleh LLI2. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 45 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Perlemahan posisi BPD pertama kali dimandatkan pada UU No 22/1999 tentang Pemerintahan Daerah, BPD dibanding kepala sebagai suatu badan perwakilan desa dengan anggota-anggota yang dipilih untuk desa telah memberikan fungsi pemeriksaan dan penyeimbangan dalam pemerintahan desa. Dengan menyurutkan kapasitas demikian kepala desa bertanggung jawab kepada BPD dan bupati (yang memberikan dana desa… bagi pemerintahan desa). Namun mekanisme ini kemudian diubah dengan UU No 32/2004, dan namanya diubah walau singkatannya tetap sama. Kepanjangan BPD kini adalah Badan Permusyawaratan Desa, dan anggotanya dipilih secara kemufakatan dan pada dasarnya tidak memiliki kewenangan atas kepala desa. Perubahan-perubahan ini juga menurunkan kemampuan warga desa dalam memantau kepala desanya dan dalam memastikan bahwa pemerintah desa bekerja demi kepentingan bersama yang lebih luas, dan bukan demi kepentingan perorangan atau kelompok tertentu. BPD yang dibentuk pada tahun 1999 terbukti menjadi mekanisme akuntabilitas yang efektif dalam himpunan bagian perdesaan yang mana badan itu dapat bekerja sebelum dilemahkan oleh peraturan perundangan pada tahun 2004. Sejumlah kecil desa-desa di Jawa Tengah, misalnya, tetap mempertahankan peran BPD seperti awalnya sementara sejumlah desa di Jambi tetap mempertahankan mekanisme pengendali hukum adatnya. Pada kalangan masyarakat tersebut, lembaga adat dan BPD telah ,meningkatkan kapasitas desa dengan menyalurkan kebutuhan warga desa kepada para pejabat dan memastikan bahwa pemerintahan desa bekerja untuk menangani prioritas masyarakat yang telah teridentifikasi. …dengan pemerintah Walau tanpa mekanisme pemeriksaan dan penyeimbangan pada desa-desa yang disebabkan kabupaten tidak oleh perlemahan BPD, tidak terdapat peningkatan pengendalian atau pengawasan atas kepala menyerahkan kendali desa oleh kabupaten untuk akuntabilitas kepala desa itu sebagai penyeimbang perlemahan dan pengawasan BPD. Kabupaten hanya memberikan pengawasan dan pemantauan yang minim dalam hal terhadap kepala desa, apakah para kepala desa melakukan tugasnya atau apakah dana digunakan secara efektif. kemungkinan terjadi Dalam keadaan ini, posisi kepala desa yang lebih kuat dapat secara potensial mendorong penyalahgunaan penyalahgunaan kekuasaan dan korupsi. Di salah satu desa yang diteliti LLI3, sebagai contoh, kekuasaan dan korupsi seorang kepala desa membangun suatu balai desa bernilai ratusan juta rupiah, yang idenya dilontarkan pada masa awal jabatannya namun dihalangi oleh BPD pada tahun 2001. Untuk mendanai balai itu, sang kepala desa menggunakan dana pembangunan desa, dilaporkan memaksa warga untuk memberi sumbangan dana, dan bahkan dilaporkan mengalihkan bantuan raskin kepada rumah tangga miskin untuk membantu pendanaan pembangunan balai desa itu. Proyek-proyek CDD Penelitian LLI3 juga menjelaskan tentang pengaruh program CDD terhadap kapasitas desa. bekerja lebih baik pada Proyek-proyek partisipatif secara potensial dapat menjadi salah satu upaya untuk desa-desa berkapasitas meningkatkan kapasitas desa dengan memberikan ruang bagi pengambilan keputusan secara lebih tinggi dibanding kolektif untuk memecahkan masalah desa dan dengan meningkatkan akuntabilitas. Namun, meningkatkan tata walaupun desa-desa LLI3 melaporkan tingkat kepuasan yang lebih tinggi, transparansi yang kelola pada desa-desa lebih luas, dan pemeliharaan yang lebih baik bagi PNPM dibanding proyek-proyek bukan yang berkapasitas CDD, tingkat partisipasi dalam perencanaan pembangunan desa tidak meningkat secara lebih rendah keseluruhan. Secara khusus, pada desa-desa dengan kapasitas yang lebih rendah, proyek- proyek CDD belum memfasilitasi peningkatan dalam partisipasi pengambilan keputusan dan tata kelola. Di lain pihak, desa-desa berkapasitas tinggi dapat dengan lebih baik memanfaatkan perencanaan dan pengambilan keputusan secara terbuka di dalam proyek- proyek tersebut untuk memecahkan sebagian masalah-masalah kolektif mereka. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 46 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia d. …dan pentingnya peningkatan pemeriksaan dan penyeimbangan pada tingkat perdesaan Dibutuhkan Secara keseluruhan, penelitian LLI3 menunjukkan bahwa kapasitas desa pada desa-desa mekanisme sampel di Indonesia pada umumnya telah terpelihara, dengan desa-desa berkapasitas tinggi pemeriksaan dan dapat memanfaatkan kesempatan-kesempatan yang dibawa oleh perubahan dalam kebijakan penyeimbangan yang nasional. Sejumlah desa-desa berkapasitas rendah telah mampu meningkatkan kapasitas lebih kuat pada tingkat mereka secara organik dengan menangani kendala-kendala sumber daya dan menggunakan perdesaan dan strategi mekanisme pengendalian yang ada untuk meminta akuntabilitas pemerintahan desanya. yang lebih baik dalam Desa-desa itu juga memperoleh manfaat dari demokratisasi, yang memungkinkan warga desa proyek-proyek CDD untuk memilih kepala desa yang reformis dan pro-masyarakat yang bekerja demi kepentingan untuk membantu warga desa, dan dari desentralisasi, yang memberikan akses langsung bagi kepala desa mendukung kapasitas reformis kepada kabupaten untuk memperoleh dukungan yang dibutuhkan dalam lokal memecahkan masalah-masalah yang telah teridentifikasi. Namun, sejumlah desa telah mengalami penurunan kapasitas, karena tidak mampu menangani masalah yang terus bertahan terkait dengan penurunan sumber daya alam dan meminta pertanggungjawaban pemerintahan desa. Pada sejumlah kasus, penurunan kapasitas desa ini dapat dikaitkan dengan hilangnya kemampuan untuk mengangkat kepala desa karena perubahan status dari desa menjadi kelurahan. Temuan-temuan ini secara kuat menyiratkan kebutuhan untuk memperkuat mekanisme pemeriksaan dan penyeimbangan pada tingkat perdesaan guna membantu warga desa menuntut akuntabilitas pemerintah desa. Dengan demikian, sementara proyek-proyek CDD telah membantu desa-desa berkapasitas tinggi dan menengah dalam memecahkan sebagian masalah kolektifnya, masih banyak hal yang harus dilakukan untuk memungkinkan desa-desa dengan kapasitas lebih rendah untuk memetik manfaat dari proses itu pula. Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 47 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia LAMPIRAN: INDIKATOR GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA Lampiran Gambar 1: Pertumbuhan PDB Lampiran Gambar 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB pengeluaran (pertumbuhan PDB riil, persen) (kontribusi pertumbuhan PDB riil qoq, dengan penyesuaian musiman, persen) 4 8 Private cons. Gov cons. Investment Net Exports tahunan (kanan) Discrepancy GDP 4 3 6 triwulanan, penyesuaian 2 musiman (kiri) rata-rata (kiri)* 2 4 0 1 2 -2 0 0 -4 Sep-06 Jun-08 Mar-10 Dec-11 Sep-13 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Catatan: * Rata-rata pertumbuhan Tw-k-Tw Q3 2003 – Q3 2013 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; World Bank seasonal adjustment Lampiran Gambar 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB produksi Lampiran Gambar 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil (kontribusi pertumbuhan PDB riil qoq, dengan penyesuaian musiman, (penjualan bulanan, 000 unit) persen) Agriculture Mining and Const Manufacture Comm and Trans. 900 130 Trade, Hotel, & Rest. Other services Overall GDP Mobil (kanan) 2.0 110 700 90 1.0 70 500 0.0 50 Sepeda motor (kiri) -1.0 300 30 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC Lampiran Gambar 5: Indikator konsumen Lampiran Gambar 6: Indikator industri penjualan (indeks) (rata-rata 3 bulan, pertumbuhan yoy, persen) 160 20 60 Indeks penjualan eceran BI Indeks survey 140 konsumen BI 15 Penjualan semen (kanan) 45 120 10 30 100 5 15 80 0 0 Indeks produksi industri (kiri) 60 -5 -15 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Sumber: BI Sumber: CEIC D e s em b e r 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 48 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 7: Arus perdagangan riil Lampiran Gambar 8: Neraca pembayaran (pertumbuhan riil triwulanan, persen) (miliar dolar AS) 15 Capital and financial Current account Errors and omissions Overall BoP inflows 15 10 Ekspor 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Impor -15 -10 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sumber: BPS Sumber: BI Lampiran Gambar 9: Ekspor barang Lampiran Gambar 10: Impor barang (rata-rata 3 bulanan, miliar dolar AS) (rata-rata 3 bulanan, miliar dolar AS) 20 20 Total ekspor Total impor 16 16 12 12 Barang baku 8 Manufaktur 8 Barang modal Minyak dan gas Pertanian dan kehutanan 4 4 Barang konsumsi Minyak dan gas Metal dan mineral 0 0 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Sumber: BPS Sumber: BPS Lampiran Gambar 11: Cadangan devisa dan arus masuk Lampiran Gambar 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter modal (pertumbuhan month-on-month dan yoy, persen) (miliar dolar AS) 150 5.0 3.5 12 Inflasi headline, tahun-ke-tahun (kanan) Cadangan devisa (LHS) Tingkat bunga BI 125 2.5 Inflasi inti, tahun-ke-tahun (kanan) 2.5 8 (kanan) 100 0.0 1.5 4 Inflasi inti, bulan-ke-bulan (kiri) 75 -2.5 Aliran masuk portfolio asing (kanan): 0.5 0 50 -5.0 Equities SUN SBI 25 -7.5 -0.5 -4 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Sumber: BI; CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 49 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 13: Rincian bulanan IHK Lampiran Gambar 14: Perbandingan inflasi beberapa negara (persen kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan bulanan) (yoy, Oktober 2013) Core Administered Korea 3.6 Volatile Headline USA 3.0 Japan 2.4 Thailand* Singapore 1.8 Malaysia 1.2 Philippines 0.6 China* Indonesia* 0.0 India -0.6 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia *Angka inflasi November Sumber: Biro statistik nasional via CEIC; BPS Lampiran Gambar 15: Harga beras domestik dan Lampiran Gambar 16: Tingkat kemiskinan dan internasional pengangguran (persen kiri, harga partai besar, dalam rupiah per kg kanan) (persen, data Pengangguran Agustus) 100 10,000 25 25 Persentase perbedaan harga (kiri) 20 20 50 7,000 Tingkat kemiskinan 15 15 10 10 0 4,000 Beras lokal , IR-III Tingkat pengangguran (kanan) 5 5 Beras Vietnam, patahan 15% (kanan) -50 1,000 0 0 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sumber: PIBC; FAO; Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS Lampiran Gambar 17: Indeks saham regional Lampiran Gambar 18: Indeks dolar AS dan Nilai tukar rupiah (indeks harian September 2009=100) (indeks harian, kiri dan rupiah/dolar AS, kanan) 250 120 8,500 SET IDR/USD (kanan) 200 110 9,500 JCI 150 100 Appresiasi Rupiah 10,500 SGX Dollar Index (kiri) 100 BSE 90 11,500 Shanghai 50 80 12,500 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 50 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 19: Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah 5- Lampiran Gambar 20: Spread obligasi dolar AS pemerintah tahunan dalam mata uang lokal EMBI (harian, persen) (harian, basis poin) 10 475 60 Indonesia spreads less overall EMBIG Index spreads (RHS) 8 400 0 Indonesia 6 325 -60 4 Philippines Thailand 250 -120 Malaysia 2 175 -180 United States Indonesia EMBIG bond spreads (LHS) 0 100 -240 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: JP Morgan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Lampiran Gambar 21: Pinjaman international perbankan Lampiran Gambar 22: Indikator sektor perbankan komersial (bulanan, persen) (bulanan, indeks Januari 2009=100) 235 100 10 Rasio pinjaman dan deposito - 215 Indonesia LDR (kiri) India 80 8 195 Singapore 175 60 6 Rasio kredit Malaysia Rasio bermasalah -NPL 155 pengembalian aset (kanan) 40 -ROA (kanan) 4 135 Thailand United States 115 20 2 Rasio kecukupan modal -CAR 95 (kiri) 0 0 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI Lampiran Gambar 23: Hutang pemerintah Lampiran Gambar 24: Hutang luar negeri (persentase terhadap PDB; miliar dolar AS) (persen terhadap PDB; miliar dolar AS) 60 300 60 300 Rasio utang luar negeri Rasio utang pemerintah terhadap PDB (kiri) terhadap PDB (kiri) 40 200 40 200 20 100 20 100 0 0 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 External debt, RHS September Private external debt, RHS September Domestic debt, RHS Public external debt, RHS Sumber: MoF; BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia D e s em b e r 20 1 3 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 51 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 1: Realisasi dan anggaran belanja Pemerintah (Rupiah triliun) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi APBN-P APBN A. Penerimaan dan hibah 849 995 1,211 1,338 1,502 1,667 1. Penerimaan pajak 620 723 874 981 1,148 1,280 2. Penerimaan bukan pajak 227 269 331 352 349 385 B. Pengeluaran 937 1,042 1,295 1,491 1,726 1,842 1. Pemerintah pusat 629 697 884 1,011 1,197 1,250 2. Transfer ke daerah 309 345 411 481 529 593 C. Neraca prima 5 42 9 -53 -112 -54 D. Surplus / Defisit -89 -47 -84 -153 -224 -175 (persen dari PDB) -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.4 -1.7 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan Lampiran Tabel 2: Neraca Pembayaran (miliar dolar AS) 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Neraca pembayaran   30.3 11.9 0.2 -2.8 0.8 3.2 -6.6 -2.5 -2.6 Persen dari PDB   4.3 1.4 0.0 -1.3 0.4 1.5 -3.0 -1.1 -1.2 Neraca berjalan 5.1 1.7 -24.4 -8.1 -5.3 -7.8 -5.9 -10.0 -8.4 Persen dari PDB   0.7 0.2 -2.8 -3.7 -2.4 -3.6 -2.7 -4.4 -3.9 Neraca perdagangan   21.3 24.2 -1.7 -2.0 0.8 -2.4 -0.8 -3.8 -2.6 Pendapatan bersih & transfer berjalan   -16.2 -22.5 -22.7 -6.2 -6.1 -5.4 -5.0 -6.1 -5.8 Neraca modal & keuangan 26.6 13.6 25.2 5.1 5.9 12.1 -0.3 8.4 4.9 Persen dari PDB   3.8 1.6 2.9 2.3 2.6 5.5 -0.1 3.7 2.3 Investasi langsung   11.1 11.5 14.0 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.1 Investasi porfolio   13.2 3.8 9.2 3.9 2.5 0.2 2.8 3.4 1.9 Investasi lain   2.3 -1.8 1.9 -2.5 -1.2 7.7 -6.9 1.2 -2.1 Kesalahan & pembulatan -1.5 -3.4 -0.5 0.2 0.2 -1.1 -0.4 -1.0 0.9 Cadangan devisa* 96.2 110.1 112.8 106.5 110.2 112.8 104.8 98.1 95.7 Catatan: * Cadangan devisa pada akhir periode Sumber: BI; BPS Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 52 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 3: Perkembangan indikator ekonomi makro Indonesia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Neraca Nasional (% perubahan)    PDB riil 9.0 8.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2    Investasi riil 25.3 22.6 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.8 9.8    Konsumsi riil 23.2 21.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8    Swasta 23.9 22.7 3.7 0.9 4.7 4.7 5.3    Pemerintah 18.8 14.7 14.2 6.6 0.3 3.2 1.2    Ekspor rill, barang dan jasa 22.5 18.0 30.6 16.6 15.3 13.6 2.0    Impor riil, barang dan jasa 30.2 29.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 13.3 6.6    Investasi (% PDB) 28 28 20 24 32 32 33    Nominal PDB (milyar dolar AS) 114 202 165 286 709 846 878    PDB per capita (dolar AS) 636 1035 804 1,300 2,984 3,498 3,563 2 Anggaran Pemerintah Pusat (% GDP)    Penerimaan dan hibah 18.8 15.2 20.8 17.8 15.5 16.3 16.2    Penerimaan bukan pajak 1.0 4.8 9.0 5.3 4.2 4.5 4.3    Penerimaan pajak 17.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 11.3 11.8 11.9    Pengeluaran 11.8 13.9 22.4 18.4 16.2 17.4 18.1    Konsumsi .. 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.1    Modal .. 4.6 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8    Bunga pinjaman .. 1.4 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2    Subsidi .. .. 6.3 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.2    Surplus/defisit 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9    Utang Pemerintah 41.9 32.3 97.9 47.6 26.0 24.3 23.9    Utang luar negeri pemerintah 41.9 32.3 51.4 22.3 9.5 8.3 7.4    Total utang luar negeri (termasuk utang swasta) 61.0 61.5 87.1 47.7 28.2 27.5 29.6 3 Neraca Pembayaran (% PDB)    Neraca pembayaran keseluruhan .. .. .. 0.2 4.3 1.4 0.0    Neraca transaksi berjalan -2.6 3.2 4.8 0.1 0.7 0.2 -2.8    Ekspor, barang dan jasa 25.6 26.2 42.8 35.0 24.7 26.2 24.1    Impor, barang dan jasa 24.0 26.9 33.9 32.0 21.6 23.3 24.3    Transaksi berjalan 1.6 -0.8 8.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 -0.2    Neraca transaksi keuangan .. .. .. 0.0 3.7 1.6 2.9    Penanaman modal langsung, neto 1.0 2.2 -2.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6    Cadangan devisa bruto (USD billion) 8.7 14.9 29.4 34.7 96.2 110.1 112.8 3 Moneter (% change)    Deflator PDB1 7.7 9.9 20.4 14.3 8.3 8.1 4.5    Suku bunga Bank Indonesia (%) .. .. .. 9.1 6.5 6.6 5.8    Kredit domestik .. .. .. 28.7 17.5 24.4 24.2 4    Nilai tukar Rupiah/Dolar AS (rata-rata) 1,843 2,249 8,422 9,705 9,090 8,770 9,387 1 Harga-harga (% perubahan)    Indeks harga konsumen (akhir periode) 9.9 9.0 9.4 17.1 7.0 3.8 4.3    Indeks harga konsumen (rata-rata) 7.7 9.4 3.7 10.5 5.1 5.4 4.3    Keranjang harga kemiskinan .. .. .. 10.8 8.7 8.2 6.5 5    Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (Dolar AS per barel) .. 17 28 53 79 112 113 Sumber: 1 BPS dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia; 2 Kementrian Keuangan dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia (untuk 1995 menggunakan tahun dasar 1995/1996, untuk 2000 hanya 9 bulan); 3 Bank Indonesia; 4 IMF; 5 CEIC Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 53 Pertumbuhan melambat, Perkembangan Triwulanan risiko tinggi Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 4: Sekilas indikator pembangunan Indonesia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Kependudukan Penduduk (juta) 184 199 213 227 241 244 247 Tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk (%) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Penduduk perkotaan (% terhadap total) 31 36 42 46 50 51 51 Rasio ketergantungan (% penduduk usia kerja) 67 61 55 54 53 53 52 2 Angkatan Kerja Angkatan kerja, total (juta) 75 84 98 106 117 117 118 Laki-laki 46 54 60 68 72 72 73 Perempuan 29 31 38 38 45 45 45 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor pertanian (%) 55 43 45 44 38 36 35 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor industri (%) 14 19 17 19 19 21 22 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor jasa (%) 31 38 37 37 42 44 43 Tingkat pengangguran, total (% angkatan kerja) 2.5 7.0 8.1 11.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 3 Kemiskinan dan Distribusi Pendapatan Konsumsi rumah tangga, median (Rp.000) .. .. 104 211 374 421 446 Garis kemiskinan nasional (Rp.000) .. .. 73 129 212 234 249 Jumlah penduduk miskin (juta) .. .. 38 35 31 30 29 Penduduk miskin (% penduduk dibawah garis kemiskinan) .. .. 19 16 13 12 12 Di perkotaan .. .. 14.6 11.7 9.9 9.2 8.8 Di perdesaan .. .. 22.4 20.0 16.6 15.7 15.1 Laki-laki sebagai kepala rumah tangga .. .. 15.5 13.3 11.0 10.2 9.5 Perempuan sebagai kepala rumah tangga .. .. 12.6 12.8 9.5 9.7 8.8 GINI indeks .. .. 0.30 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.41 Kontribusi konsumsi pada 20% kelompok termiskin (%) .. .. 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 Kontribusi konsumsi pada 20% kelompok terkaya (%) .. .. 38.6 41.4 43.5 46.5 46.7 4 Pengeluar publik untuk kesejahteraan masyarakat (% PDB) .. .. .. 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 1 Kesehatan dan Gizi Tenaga kesehatan (per 1,000 people) 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.29 .. 0.20 Balita kurang gizi (% total anak usia dibawah 5) .. 27.4 24.8 24.4 18.6 .. .. 5 Tingkat kematian balita (per 1000 anak usia dibawah 5 tahun) 98 67 52 42 34 32 31.0 5 Tingkat kematian bayi lahir (per 1000 kelahiran hidup) 27 26 22 19 16 15.5 15.0 5 Tingkat kematian bayi (per 1000 kelahiran hidup) 67 51 41 34 28 26.7 25.8 Rasio kematian persalinan (perkiraan, per 100,000 kelahiran hidup) 600 420 340 270 220 .. .. Persalinan yang dibantu penolong kelahiran (% total kelahiran) 36 .. 66 .. 82 .. .. Imunisasi campak (% anak usia dibawah 1 tahun) .. 63 74 .. 76 .. .. Belanja untuk kesehatan (% of GDP) .. 1.8 77.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 .. Belanja pemerintah untuk kesehatan (% of GDP) .. 0.7 89.0 89.0 1.0 0.9 .. 3 Pendidikan Angka partisipasi murni (APM) SD, (%) .. .. .. 92 92 92 93 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 48 48 49 49 Angka partisipasi murni pendidikan tingkat menengah, (%) .. .. .. 52 61 60 60 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 50 50 50 49 Angka partisipasi murni universitas/pendidikan tinggi, (%) .. .. .. 9 16 14 15 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 55 53 50 54 Angka melek huruf Dewasa (%) .. .. .. 91 91 91 92 Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (% terhadap PDB) .. .. .. 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (% terhadap APBN) .. .. .. 14.5 19.7 19.8 18.9 1 Air Bersih dan Kesehatan lingkungan Penduduk dengan akses air bersih disempurnakan (% tot penduduk) 70 74 78 81 84 84 .. Di perkotaan (% penduduk perkotaan) 91 91 91 92 93 93 .. Di perdesaan (% penduduk perdesaan) 61 65 68 71 75 76 .. Penduduk dengani akses kesehatan lingkungan (% tot penduduk) 32 38 44 53 58 59 .. Di perkotaan (% penduduk perkotaan) 56 60 64 70 73 73 .. Di perdesaan (% penduduk perdesaan) 21 26 30 38 43 44 .. 1 Lainnya Pengurangan resiko bencana, penilaian (skala 1-5; 5=terbaik) .. .. .. .. .. 3.3 .. 6 Proporsi perempuan yang duduk di parlemen (%) .. .. 8 11 18 18.2 18.6 Sumber: 1 World Development Indicators; 2 BPS (Sakernas); 3 BPS (Susenas) dan Bank Dunia; 4 Kementerian Keuangan dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia dan hanya termasuk pengeluaran aktual untuk Raskin, Jamkesmas, BLT, BSM, PKH (kecuali tahun 2012 dari APBN-P; 5 Inter- Parliamentary Union Des ember 2013 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 54 Maret 2014 Investasi yang tak menentu PERKEMBANGAN TRIWULANAN PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Investasi yang tak menentu Maret 2014 Kata pengantar Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia (Indonesia Economic Quarterly/IEQ) mempunyai dua tujuan. Pertama, untuk menyajikan perkembangan utama perekonomian Indonesia dalam tiga bulan terakhir, dan menempatkan dalam konteks jangka panjang dan global. Berdasarkan perkembangan ini, serta perubahan kebijakan dalam periode tersebut, laporan ini menyediakan perkembangan terkini secara rutin tentang prospek perekonomian dan kesejahteraan sosial Indonesia. Kedua, laporan IEQ ini memberikan penilaian mendalam terhadap isu-isu ekonomi dan kebijakan tertentu, dan analisis terhadap tantangan pembangunan jangka menengah Indonesia. Laporan ini ditujukan untuk khalayak luas termasuk pembuat kebijakan, pemimpin bisnis, pelaku pasar keuangan, serta komunitas analis dan profesional yang terlibat dan mengikuti perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia. IEQ merupakan laporan Bank Dunia di Jakarta dan disusun oleh tim kebijakan makro dan fiskal, unit Pengentasan Kemiskinan dan Manajemen Ekonomi (Poverty Reduction and Economic Management/PREM), Bank Dunia Jakarta di bawah bimbingan Jim Brumby sebagai Sector Manager dan Lead Economist, Ndiame Diop sebagai Economic Adviser dan Lead Economist dan Ashley Taylor sebagai Senior Economist. Tim utama penyusun laporan ini dipimpin oleh Alex Sienaert dan bertanggung jawab di bagian A, pengeditan dan produksi, tim inti terdiri dari Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Masyita Crystallin, Fitria Fitrani, Ahya Ihsan, Elitza Mileva (memimpin Bagian A), Michele Savini Zangrandi dan Violeta Vulovic. Dukungan administrasi diberikan oleh Titi Ananto dan Sylvia Njotomihardjo. Diseminasi dilakukan oleh Raihan, Indra Irnawan, Jerry Kurniawan and Nugroho Sunjoyo dibawah bimbingan Dini Sari Djalal. Edisi ini juga mencakup kontribusi dari Yue Man Lee dan Arvind Nair (Bagian B.1, kebijakan ekspor mineral), Suryani Amin, Abigail Baca, Iwan Gunawan, Jossie McVitty dan Saut Sagala (ITB)(Bagian B.2, kesiagaan risiko bencana perkotaan). Masukkan utama juga diterima dari The Fei Ming, Neni Lestari, Djauhari Sitorus dan Carlos Pinerua. Mark Ahern, Bill Wallace (Australia Indonesia Partnership for Economic Governance) dan Roland Rajah (Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade) juga memberikan tambahan masukan yang penting. Peter Milne mengedit sebagian besar dari laporan ini. Dokumen ini diterjemahkan ke dalam Bahasa Indonesia oleh Nicolas Noviyanto dan diedit oleh Eva Muchtar, Arsianti, Magda Adriani, Suryani Amin, Fitria Fitrani dan Ahya Ihsan Laporan ini disusun oleh para staf International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Bank Dunia, dengan dukungan pendanaan dari Pemerintah Australia (Departemen Luar Negeri dan Perdagangan atau Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, DFAT) melalui program Support for Enhanced Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA). Temuan-temuan, interpretasi dan kesimpulan-kesimpulan yang dinyatakan di dalam laporan ini tidak mencerminkan pandangan AusAID dan Pemerintah Australia, para Direktur Pelaksana Bank Dunia atau pemerintah yang diwakilinya. Bank Dunia tidak menjamin ketepatan data-data yang termuat dalam laporan ini. Batas-batas, warna, denominasi dan informasi-informasi lain yang digambarkan pada setiap peta di dalam laporan ini tidak mencerminkan pendapat Bank Dunia mengenai status hukum dari wilayah atau dukungan atau penerimaan dari batas-batas tersebut. Foto sampul depan dan di bagian Ringkasan Eksekutif merupakan Hak Cipta PT Adaro Energy Tbk dan dibagian yang lain merupakan Hak Cipta Bank Dunia. Semua Hak Cipta dilindungi. Untuk mendapatkan lebih banyak analisis Bank Dunia tentang ekonomi Indonesia: Untuk informasi mengenai Bank Dunia serta kegiatannya di Indonesia, silakan berkunjung ke website ini www.worldbank.org/id Untuk mendapatkan publikasi ini melalui e-mail, silakan hubungi madriani@worldbank.org. Untuk pertanyaan dan saran berkaitan dengan publikasi ini, silakan hubungi asienaert@worldbank.org. Daftar isi KATA PENGANTAR ............................................................................................................... 3  RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF: INVESTASI YANG TAK MENENTU .................................... I  A. PERKEMBANGAN EKONOMI DAN FISKAL TERKINI ............................................... 1  1.  Perubahan ekonomi global menghadirkan tantangan baru ........................................................................ 1  2.  Investasi menjadi pendorong utama penyesuaian ekonomi........................................................................ 2  3.  Inflasi inti telah naik perlahan ...................................................................................................................... 5  4.  Neraca pembayaran kuartal keempat menguat, namun risiko tetap ada ................................................... 7  5.  Mengikuti pengetatan kebijakan moneter, pertumbuhan kredit melemah ...............................................11  6.  Ruang gerak fiskal tahun 2014 lebih sempit ............................................................................................... 13  7.  Dengan berkurangnya risiko-risiko eksternal, reformasi jangka panjang kembali menjadi prioritas ..... 18  B. BEBERAPA PERKEMBANGAN TERKINI PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA .......... 20  1.  Mencermati larangan ekspor mineral mentah Indonesia .......................................................................... 20  a.  Latar belakang dan status terkini peraturan ........................................................................................................... 21  b.  Menelaah dasar pemikiran dan asumsi di balik larangan ekspor mineral yang tidak diolah............................... 22  c.  Memperkirakan dampak fiskal dan perdagangan jangka pendek ke menengah ................................................. 24  d.  Implikasi kebijakan dan perkembangan ke depan................................................................................................ 28  2.  Menerapkan pendekatan diagnostik risiko cepat untuk membangun ketahanan bencana dan iklim di kota-kota yang berkembang di Indonesia .................................................................................................. 31  a.  Peningkatan risiko perkotaan di kota-kota di Indonesia dan Asia Pasifik ............................................................ 31  b.  Kerangka untuk membangun ketahanan perkotaan ............................................................................................. 32  c.  Pendekatan diagnostik risiko cepat dapat mengidentifikasi opsi-opsi praktis untuk investasi ketahanan bencana dan iklim di kota-kota di Indonesia ........................................................................................................ 33  d.  Membangun ketahanan melalui penataan wilayah yang peka risiko serta perencanaan infrastruktur................ 35  e.  Membangun ketahanan melalui perbaikan infrastruktur perkotaan .................................................................... 36  f.  Membangun ketahanan melalui pengelolaan dan restorasi ekosistem................................................................ 36  g.  Sekaranglah waktu bagi Indonesia untuk memprioritaskan ketahanan terhadap risiko bencana perkotaan dan iklim 37  C. INDONESIA TAHUN 2015 DAN SELANJUTNYA: TINJAUAN PILIHAN ................ 38  1.  Indonesia: Menghindari perangkap ........................................................................................................... 38  a.  Dekade berikut membawa berbagai risiko dan kesempatan ................................................................................ 39  b.  Strategi yang dibutuhkan untuk pertumbuhan yang kuat dan inklusif di Indonesia ........................................... 42  c.  Prioritas kebijakan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan produktivitas: pertama, infrastruktur ............................... 43  d.  Prioritas kebijakan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan produktivitas: kedua, keahlian ......................................... 45  e.  Prioritas kebijakan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan produktivitas: ketiga, pasar .............................................. 47  f.  Prioritas kebijakan untuk memastikan pemerataan kesejahteraan yang lebih luas ............................................. 49  g.  Taruhan yang tinggi: hasil jika melakukan reformasi dan kerugian bila tidak melakukannya ............................ 51  LAMPIRAN: INDIKATOR GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA ................................ 52  DAFTAR GAMBAR Gambar 1: Perkembangan terakhir neraca berjalan, harga komoditas dan kurs tukar menunjukkan sedikit pemulihan.................................................................................ii  Gambar 2: Ekonomi global semakin menguat, diprakarsai oleh negara berpenghasilan tinggi… 2  Gambar 3: … nilai tukar perdagangan Indonesia relatif stabil, walau masih berada di bawah puncaknya yang lalu .................................................................................................... 2  Gambar 4: Ekspor bersih mendorong pertumbuhan riil PDB pada kuartal 4 tahun 2013 ............... 3  Gambar 5: Penyesuaian permintaan dalam negeri tetap terkonsentrasi pada investasi tetap......... 3  Gambar 6: Kontribusi konstruksi dan pertambangan terhadap pertumbuhan PDB naik, sementara kontribusi jasa perdagangan, perhotelan dan restoran menurun ............. 4  Gambar 7: Indikator terkini menunjukkan sinyal yang beragam terhadap permintaan domestik kuartal I 2014 ................................................................................................................ 4  Gambar 8: Tekanan inflasi telah meningkat dalam beberapa bulan terakhir, pengaruh tunda dari perlemahan Rupiah dan faktor-faktor musiman......................................................... 6  Gambar 9: Kesenjangan antara harga beras di dalam dan luar negeri telah melebar ...................... 6  Gambar 10: Neraca pembayaran menjadi positif pada kuartal keempat…...................................... 7  Gambar 11: …setelah peningkatan yang besar dalam neraca perdagangan barang menyebabkan kontraksi pada defisit neraca berjalan secara keseluruhan ........................................ 7  Gambar 12: Bijih, terak dan abu (O-S-A) memberi kontribusi besar terhadap pertumbuhan ekspor kuartal 4 dan penurunan ekspor pada Jan 2014............................................... 8  Gambar 13: Impor melemah pada kuartal keempat, dengan turunnya barang modal dan jatuhnya barang setengah jadi .................................................................................................... 9  Gambar 14: Aliran masuk modal bersih ke surat utang negara dalam negeri sejak bulan September telah mendukung investasi portofolio ...................................................... 9  Gambar 15: Perlemahan ekspor menurunkan pertumbuhan impor pada 2012, dan ekspor turut mendorong hampir seluruh pertumbuhan impor pada tahun 2013.......................... 10  Gambar 16: Setelah kenaikan akhir-akhir ini, BI Rate mendekati perkiraan Taylor’s rule berdasarkan inflasi inti ............................................................................................... 11  Gambar 17: Kenaikan bunga pinjaman bank umum masih di bawah BI Rate .............................. 12  Gambar 18: Bank-bank yang lebih kecil lebih rentan terhadap perlambatan dalam pertumbuhan simpanan .................................................................................................................... 12  Gambar 19: Pertumbuhan pendapatan nominal melambat lebih cepat dibanding pertumbuhan pengeluaran pada tiga tahun terakhir… ................................................................... 14  Gambar 20: …didorong penurunan yang luas dalam lintas sumber pendapatan .......................... 14  Gambar 21: Subsidi BBM terus menyebabkan APBN tertekan oleh harga pasar BBM dalam Rupiah ........................................................................................................................ 16  Gambar 22: Kebutuhan pembiayaan eksternal bruto dan risiko-risiko likuiditas masih tetap tinggi .......................................................................................................................... 18  Gambar 23: Ekspor mineral Indonesia meningkat secara signifikan pada dekade 2000an .......... 21  Gambar 24: Hampir 40 persen ekspor mineral telah diolah ........................................................... 21  Gambar 25: Perkiraan menunjukkan dampak negatif yang signifikan ke neraca perdagangan pada 2014-15 untuk semua skenario… ...................................................................... 27  Gambar 26:...dan juga dampak negatif terhadap pendapatan negara, yang meningkat sejalan dengan waktu ............................................................................................................. 27  Gambar 27: Dampak negatif ke perdagangan didorong penurunan ekspor, terutama pada tahun 2014… ......................................................................................................................... 27  Gambar 28: ...dan peningkatan impor yang signifikan hingga 2017 akibat investasi peleburan yang padat modal....................................................................................................... 27  Gambar 29: Penambangan terpusat di Chili, sementara pemurnian dan konsumsi terkonsentrasi di Cina dan India ....................................................................................................... 30  Gambar 30: Status Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW) (Februari 2014) ................................ 33  Gambar 31: Pertumbuhan penduduk di enam kota percontohan .................................................. 34  Gambar 32: Contoh profil risiko kota yang sederhana untuk Balikpapan ..................................... 35  Gambar 33: Faktor demografi memberikan dorongan: Rasio kebergantungan Indonesia tampaknya akan menurun sampai 2025-30… ........................................................... 39  Gambar 34: …sementara dorongan dari komoditas, yang selama ini menjadi mesin pertumbuhan pendapatan nominal, perannya kini makin memudar… .................. 39  Gambar 35: Rumah tangga yang lebih miskin mencatat pertumbuhan konsumsi riil di bawah rata-rata selama 2003-10 ............................................................................................. 41  Gambar 36: Dibutuhkan lebih banyak belanja dengan kualitas yang lebih tinggi untuk menutup kesenjangan infrastruktur… ...................................................................................... 47  Gambar 37: Indonesia menghadapi tantangan dalam meningkatkan keahlian di dalam angkatan kerjanya ...................................................................................................................... 47  Gambar 38: Pendapatan per kapita yang dicapai ketika bonus demografi berakhir, dibanding Indonesia (2030)......................................................................................................... 51  DAFTAR GAMBAR LAMPIRAN Lampiran Gambar 1: Pertumbuhan PDB ........................................................................................ 52  Lampiran Gambar 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB pengeluaran ........................................................ 52  Lampiran Gambar 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB produksi .............................................................. 52  Lampiran Gambar 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil .............................................................. 52  Lampiran Gambar 5: Indikator konsumen...................................................................................... 52  Lampiran Gambar 6: Indikator produksi industri........................................................................... 52  Lampiran Gambar 7: Arus volume perdagangan ............................................................................ 53  Lampiran Gambar 8: Neraca pembayaran ...................................................................................... 53  Lampiran Gambar 9: Ekspor barang ............................................................................................... 53  Lampiran Gambar 10: Impor barang ............................................................................................... 53  Lampiran Gambar 11: Cadangan devisa dan arus masuk modal .................................................... 53  Lampiran Gambar 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter .................................................................... 53  Lampiran Gambar 13: Rincian bulanan IHK .................................................................................. 54  Lampiran Gambar 14: Perbandingan inflasi beberapa negara ....................................................... 54  Lampiran Gambar 15: Harga beras domestik dan internasional .................................................... 54  Lampiran Gambar 16: Tingkat kemiskinan dan pengangguran .................................................... 54  Lampiran Gambar 17: Indeks saham regional ................................................................................ 54  Lampiran Gambar 18: Nilai tukar dollar AS .................................................................................... 54  Lampiran Gambar 19: Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah 5-tahunan dalam mata uang lokal ......... 55  Lampiran Gambar 20: Spread obligasi dolar AS pemerintah EMBI .............................................. 55  Lampiran Gambar 21: Pertumbuhan kredit perbankan .................................................................. 55  Lampiran Gambar 22: Indikator sektor perbankan ........................................................................ 55  Lampiran Gambar 23: Utang pemerintah ....................................................................................... 55  Lampiran Gambar 24: Utang luar negeri ........................................................................................ 55  DAFTAR TABEL Tabel 1: Pada skenario dasar (baseline), pertumbuhan Indonesia diproyeksikan mencapai 5,3 persen pada tahun 2014 ............................................................................................... iv  Tabel 2: Pada proyeksi dasar (base case), PDB diperkirakan akan tumbuh 5,3 persen pada 2014 dan 5,6 persen pada 2015 ............................................................................................. 5  Tabel 3: Diproyeksikan defisit neraca berjalan sebesar 2,9 persen dari PDB pada kasus dasar (base case) .................................................................................................................... 9   Tabel 4: Investasi dan ekspor mendorong permintaan bagi impor riil .......................................... 10  Tabel 5: Proyeksi defisit fiskal Bank Dunia untuk tahun 2014 telah direvisi naik karena perlemahan pendapatan dan peningkatan belanja subsidi ...................................... 15  Tabel 6: Pemerintah mengeluarkan asumsi ekonomi makro 2014 yang tidak terlalu optimis ...... 16  Tabel 7: Dibutuhkan reformasi subsidi BBM lanjutan untuk meringankan tekanan fiskal ......... 17  Tabel 8: Peraturan yang berlaku menetapkan larangan parsial dengan peningkatan bea keluar terhadap ekspor mineral tidak diolah yang masih tersisa ........................................ 22  Tabel 9: Kedua alur ekspor dan impor dimodelkan, demikian dengan pajak/bea keluar, royalti, dan pajak pendapatan ................................................................................................ 25  Tabel 10: Tidak ada pelebur tembaga baru yang diasumsikan siap beroperasi hingga akhir 201726  Tabel 11: Status rencana tata ruang wilayah (RTRW) kota per bulan Februari 2014 ..................... 34  Tabel 12: Status rencana tata ruang wilayah (RTRW) dari kota-kota yang dipelajari ................... 34  Tabel 13: Perbedaan produktivitas tenaga kerja lintas sektor cukup signifikan ............................ 43  DAFTAR TABEL LAMPIRAN Lampiran Tabel 1: Realisasi dan anggaran belanja Pemerintah .................................................... 56  Lampiran Tabel 2: Neraca Pembayaran.......................................................................................... 56  Lampiran Tabel 3: Perkembangan indikator ekonomi makro Indonesia ...................................... 57  Lampiran Tabel 4: Sekilas indikator pembangunan Indonesia...................................................... 58  DAFTAR KOTAK Kotak 1: Faktor penentu permintaan impor Indonesia: investasi dan ekspor memainkan peran penting ....................................................................................................................... 10  Kotak 2: Posisi kebijakan moneter Indonesia dari perspektif Taylor’s rule .................................... 11  Kotak 3: Mengikuti kenaikan harga BBM subsidi pada tahun lalu, reformasi subsidi BBM lanjutan masih dibutuhkan........................................................................................ 17  Kotak 4: Pengalaman internasional dalam mendorong pengolahan hilir mineral ......................... 30  Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Ringkasan eksekutif: Investasi yang tak menentu Sejalan dengan Ekonomi Indonesia terus menyesuaiakan diri ditandai dengan pelemahan nilai tukar berlanjutnya perdagangan (terms of trade) dan pengetatan kondisi pendanaan luar negeri, dengan komposisi penyesuaian ekonomi pertumbuhan yang lebih di dominasi oleh ekspor bersih diserta dengan pertumbuhan Indonesia terhadap ekonomi yang sedikit melambat. Sementara penyesuaian yang dilakukan bersifat positif bagi perubahan lingkungan stabilitas ekonomi makro, apa yang terus – menerus terjadi adalah masih berlangsungnya global, diperlukan proses pengetatan kebijakan moneter dan keberlanjutan dari depresiasi Rupiah pada tahun kemajuan lebih lanjut 2013, yang pengaruhnya masih terus berlangsung hingga kini. Untuk mengurangi kerentanan dalam kebijakan- terhadap kejutan eksternal, mengurangi risiko perlambatan pertumbuhan siklikal yang lebih kebijakan prioritas besar, dan untuk mengubah penyesuaian makro jangka pendek menjadi pertumbuhan yang jangka panjang … kuat dan berkelanjutan dalam jangka panjang, diperlukan kemajuan lebih lanjut dalam kebijakan-kebijakan prioritas jangka panjang. …termasuk Ada tiga hal utama dapat yang dapat mendukung stabilitas perekonomian jangka pendek peningkatan kualitas maupun jangka panjang Indonesia. Yang pertama adalah kebutuhan untuk mendukung iklim investasi dan tingkat kepercayaan investor dalam dan luar negeri. Perkembangan regulasi dan kebijakan perdagangan, terbaru, termasuk larangan sebagian impor mineral, telah meningkatkan ketidakpastian yang reformasi fiskal, serta dapat menghambat investasi lintas ekonomi dan memperumit perkiraan kebijakan sebelum meneruskan upaya pelaksanaan pemilu. Dengan makin meningkatnya tekanan fiskal dari melambatnya dalam mengurangi pertumbuhan pendapatan dan lebih tingginya biaya subsidi BBM, maka prioritas yang kedua hambatan struktural adalah kebutuhan untuk memperluas basis pendapatan negara dan meningkatkan kualitas pertumbuhan belanjanya. Terutama dalam hal ini dengan cata menurunkan pengeluaran subsidi energi. Langkah-langkah ini juga akan meningkatkan ketersediaan ruang fiskal bagi pengeluaran yang lebih adil dan pro-pertumbuhan. Ketiga, dibutuhkan kemajuan yang kredibel dalam menghadapi rintangan struktural terhadap pertumbuhan yang lebih kuat dan lebih inklusif, yaitu bagaimana menjembatani kesenjangan keterampilan pekerja dan infrastruktur, serta mengurangi hambatan pasar untuk faktor - faktor produksi. Lingkungan kebijakan tentunya menghadapi sejumlah tantangan menjelang pemilu legislatif pada bulan April dan pemilu presiden pada bulan Juli. Namun, sejalan dengan risiko-risiko ekonomi yang berlangsung dan M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA i Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia agenda pembangunan Indonesia yang ambisius, penetapan landasan bagi reformasi yang akan datang, pengurangan ketidakpastian kebijakan, dan keberlanjutan kemajuan reformasi di sejumlah bidang harus tetap menjadi prioritas. Kondisi ekonomi Ekonomi global terus menguat secara bertahap dimotori oleh pemulihan yang tengah global juga sedang berlangsung pada negara- negara berpenghasilan tinggi, terutama di AS dan wilayah Eropa. berubah, membawa Pemulihan ini umumnya bersifat positif bagi negara - negara berkembang (emerging market sejumlah tantangan economies, EME) termasuk Indonesia, karena hal ini berarti secara umum meningkatkan bagi Indonesia potensi aliran perdagangan. Namun, perkembangan berbagai harga komoditas, yang secara agregat berkontribusi sebesar dua per tiga dari ekspor barang Indonesia, tetap lemah, sementara tekanan penurunan harga sepertinya akan terus berlanjut yang diakibatkan faktor- faktor dari sisi penawaran, dan kondisi penyesuaian pertumbuhan (re-balancing) yang berkelanjutan yang dialami oleh Cina terhadap investasi yang didorong oleh kredit. Selain itu, penentuan harga dari penarikan bertahap kebijakan moneter yang sangat akomodatif di AS memberikan tekanan kepada dunia untuk menaikan suku bunganya. Aliran masuk portofolio modal investasi ke EME telah menurun seiring dengan penyesuaian risiko dan prospek pertumbuhan relatif jangka panjang oleh para investor, dengan pasar yang tampaknya semakin membedakan negara-negara berdasarkan faktor kerentanan domestik . Penyesuaian ekonomi Penyesuaian (rebalancing) ekonomi Indonesia terus berlangsung di kuartal akhir tahun 2013, Indonesia terus menyesuaikan terhadap melemahnya nilai tukar perdagangan dan terbatasnya pendanaan luar berlangsung hingga negeri akibat semakin ketatnya kebijakan moneter dan depresiasi kurs mata uang. Ekspor akhir 2013, yang bersih memberikan dorongan yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan, terutama dengan ditunjukkan oleh adanya moderasi pada pertumbuhan volume impor serta peningkatan ekspor. Investasi perlambatan investasi masih mencatat laju pertumbuhan di bawah rata-rata, yang menghambat pertumbuhan dan dan meningkatnya melemahkan permintaan impor. Indikator konsumsi swasta menunjukkan hasil yang lebih volume ekspor beragam, dengan sejumlah indikasi bahwa konsumsi pun mengalami moderasi, namun bersih… belanja yang berkaitan dengan pemilu dapat menjadi faktor pendorong jangka pendek. …dan menyempitnya Laju dan besarnya Gambar 1: Perkembangan terakhir neraca berjalan, harga defisit neraca berjalan, penyesuaian neraca eksternal komoditas dan kurs tukar menunjukkan sedikit pemulihan walau sebagian Indonesia (Gambar 1) tetap (Defisit neraca berjalan, kurs tukar dan harga-harga komoditas) diakibatkan oleh menjadi fokus para Current account (four quarter rolling sum) to GDP, LHS faktor-faktor yang penyusun kebijakan dan Real effective exchange rate (RHS) bersifat sementara investor. Defisit neraca USD per IDR (RHS) Top 6 commodity export prices (RHS) berjalan Indonesia 1 Persen 2011=100 110 menyempit cukup tajam pada kuartal keempat tahun 0 100 2013, menjadi 4,0 miliar dolar AS (2,0 persen dari -1 90 PDB), dari 8,5 miliar dolar AS di kuartal ketiga, sehingga mendukung -2 80 sentimen investor dan mata uang Rupiah yang sejauh ini -3 70 telah mencatat apresiasi sebesar 7 persen terhadap -4 60 dolar AS pada tahun 2014. Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Penyempitan defisit neraca Catatan: “Top 6 commodity prices” adalah indeks ekspor tertimbang berjalan ini didorong oleh dari harga batubara, gas, minyak sawit, minyak mentah, karet dan kuatnya peningkatan dalam tembaga dalam dolar AS neraca perdagangan barang, Sumber: BI; BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia sebagian dikarenakan walau tidak terbatas oleh peningkatan ekspor mineral sebelum berlakunya larangan ekspor mineral di bulan Januari. Penurunan impor berlanjut didorong oleh melemahnya impor barang modal dan barang setengah jadi. Namun, neraca dasar yang merupakan jumlah saldo neraca berjalan dan investasi asing langsung (foreign direct investment, FDI) bersih, diproyeksikan akan tetap negatif dalam jangka pendek. Hal ini menunjukkan M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA ii Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia bahwa Indonesia akan terus bergantung pada investasi portfolio dan aliran masuk modal investasi lain yang bersifat rentan. Kebutuhan pembiayaan eksternal bruto di luar pembiayaan neraca berjalan juga tetap signifikan, dengan hutang luar negeri jangka pendek mencapai 56,7 miliar dolar AS pada bulan Desember menurut Bank Indonesia (BI). Karenanya, Indonesia tetap rentan terhadap pengetatan baru apapun dalam pembiayaan luar negeri. Pertumbuhan kredit Penyesuaian neraca eksternal Indonesia telah menjadi fokus khusus bagi BI sejak telah melemah, dan pertengahan tahun 2013. Penetapan posisi kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat di paruh faktor-faktor musiman kedua tahun lalu bersama-sama dengan makin lemahnya prospek investasi, telah dan kurs tukar berkontribusi terhadap penurunan yang cukup besar pada pertumbuhan kredit. Melemahnya mempengaruhi inflasi pertumbuhan simpanan dan terbatasnya ruang rasio hutang-terhadap-simpanan (loan-to- deposit), terutama pada sejumlah bank-bank yang berukuran lebih kecil, menunjukkan bahwa kondisi ini nampaknya akan terus berlangsung cukup lama. Dalam hal prospek inflasi jangka pendek, apresiasi Rupiah yang belakangan terjadi, dan lambatnya dampak peningkatan suku bunga yang sebelumnya terjadi terhadap ekonomi, bersama-sama akan menjaga tekanan inflasi tetap terkendali. Sementara tahun 2013 Sektor fiskal Indonesia menghadapi sejumlah tekanan dari melemahnya pertumbuhan mencatat defisit fiskal pendapatan nominal dan meningkatnya biaya subsidi energi. Realisasi sementara APBN 2013 yang moderat sebesar menunjukkan defisit fiskal sebesar 2,2 persen dari PDB lebih baik dari perkiraan yang 2,2 persen dari PDB, disebabkan oleh lebih rendahnya belanja dan bukan dikarenakan pendapatan yang lebih pertumbuhan tinggi dari proyeksi. Pertumbuhan pendapatan nominal yang menurun cukup signifikan pendapatan nominal menjadi 6,8 persen pada tahun 2013 dari 10,5 persen pada tahun 2012 dan 21,6 persen pada telah melambat dan tahun 2011, diperkirakan akan tetap lemah pada tahun 2014, yang mencerminkan moderasi tekanan fiskal pertumbuhan ekonomi dan impor, serta ketidak adaannya langkah-langkah baru yang meningkat signifikan yand dapat mendorong penerimaan. Pada sisi pengeluaran, belanja subsidi BBM tetap tidak tepat sasaran, distortif dan mengakibatkan biaya kesempatan (opportunity cost) dan risiko fiskal yang tinggi. Sebagai contoh, Bank Dunia memproyeksikan peningkatan biaya BBM dalam Rupiah akan mendorong subsidi BBM hingga Rp 267 triliun pada tahun 2014 (2,6 persen dari PDB) dari Rp 210 triliun pada tahun 2013 (2,2 persen dari PDB), dan melampaui alokasi awal pada APBN 2014 sebesar Rp 211 triliun. Reformasi, seperti perubahan penyesuaian harga BBM dari penetapan ke penyesuaian yang berdasarkan aturan merupakan hal yang penting dan harus bertujuan untuk menurunkan ketidakpastian belanja subsidi dan anggaran dan memastikan bahwa kelompok miskin dan rentan menerima perlindungan dari kenaikan harga-harga. Bank Dunia Proyeksi dasar (baseline) Bank Dunia untuk pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia tahun 2014 tetap memproyeksikan sama seperti proyeksi IEQ edisi bulan Desember 2013 sebesar 5,3 persen tahun-ke-tahun pertumbuhan PDB (year-on-year, yoy) (Tabel 1). Konsumsi swasta diperkirakan akan menerima dorongan yang akan sedikit melemah bersifat sementara menjelang pemilu bulan April dan Juli, namun ketatnya kondisi kredit bagi menjadi 5,3 persen rumah tangga dapat menjadi faktor penyeimbang untuk tahun 2014 secara keseluruhan. pada tahun 2014, dan Selain itu, pertumbuhan investasi diperkirakan akan tetap lemah karena tingginya biaya defisit neraca berjalan pinjaman, rendahnya harga-harga komoditas, dan meningkatnya harga-haraga barang modal akan menyempit impor dalam denominasi Rupiah bila dibandingkan dengan beberapa tahun terakhir. menjadi 2,9 persen dari Pertumbuhan ekspor diproyeksikan akan meningkat secara bertahap seiring dengan PDB… permintaan luar negeri, yang berkontribusi terhadap sedikit meningkatnya pertumbuhan PDB, menjadi 5,6 persen untuk tahun 2015. Pada akhir tahun, inflasi IHK bulanan diperkirakan akan turun sedikit di bawah sasaran BI yang sebesar 3,5-5,5 persen yoy dan akan tetap bertahan hingga akhir tahun 2015. Defisit neraca berjalan diproyeksikan pada 2,9 persen dari PDB untuk tahun 2014. Memasuki tahun 2015, saldo neraca berjalan diperkirakan akan semakin meningkat, namun tetap berada dalam keadaan defisit, dengan dampak dari pelarangan ekspor mineral tampaknya akan memperlambat kembalinya neraca perdagangan menjadi surplus, dan defisit struktural yang tetap bertahan pada neraca pendapatan dan jasa-jasa. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA iii Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 1: Pada skenario dasar (baseline), pertumbuhan Indonesia diproyeksikan mencapai 5,3 persen pada tahun 2014 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Perubahan persen PDB riil* 6,2 5,8 5,3 5,6 tahunan) (Perubahan persen Indeks harga konsumen* 4,3 6,9 6,2 5,2 tahunan) Saldo neraca berjalan (Persen dari PDB) -2,8 -3,3 -2,9 -2,1 Neraca APBN ** (Persen dari PDB) -1,9 -2,2 -2,6 n,a, PDB mitra perdagangan (Perubahan persen 3,4 3,5 4,0 4,1 utama tahunan) Catatan: Angka untuk 2014 dan 2015 merupakan proyeksi Bank Dunia. *Rata-rata tahunan. **Realisasi 2013 belum diaudit Sumber: BI; BPS; Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia …namun keterbatasan Proyeksi dasar (baseline) penurunan lebih lanjut yang relatif kecil dalam pertumbuhan pembiayaan eksternal didasarkan pada berlanjutnya ketersediaan pembiayaan luar negeri untuk memenuhi mungkin kembali kebutuhan pembiayaan bruto yang signifikan. Sentimen investor telah membaik belakangan meningkat… ini, Rupiah telah mencatat penguatan sekitar 7 persen terhadap dolar AS selama tahun 2014 berjalan, indeks saham dalam negeri meningkat 9 persen, dan imbal hasil (yield) surat utang negara telah menurun sekitar 30 basis poin. Namun demikian, berlanjutnya peningkatan volatilitas dalam kondisi pembiayaan luar negeri masih tetap menjadi risiko, terutama dengan berlanjutnya pengurangan stimulus yang dilakukan oleh Bank Sentral Amerika (US Federal Reserve). Selain itu, bila pemulihan AS ternyata melampaui perkiraan, maka hal itu akan menjadi hal yang positif bagi prospek perdagangan Indonesia, namun tampaknya juga akan mendorong pasar untuk mempertimbangkan kembali penetapan waktu bagi peningkatan suku bunga bank sentral AS yang berpotensi menekan aliran investasi ke negara-negara EME utama seperti Indonesia. Selain itu, terdapat risiko dari permintaan luar negeri yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan, terutama akibat dampak laju dan komposisi pertumbuhan Cina terhadap perdagangan, yang juga dapat mempengaruhi harga-harga komoditas. …dan perkembangan Walaupun adanya keriuhan politik menjelang pemilu bulan April dan Juli, sangatlah penting kebijakan akhir-akhir untuk terus melanjutkan capaian dalam meningkatkan ketahanan dan laju pertumbuhan ini menambah ekonomi Indonesia yang berkelanjutan. Namun sejumlah perkembangan peraturan dan ketidakpastian… kebijakan yang belakangan terjadi, termasuk pelarangan akan sebagian ekspor mineral mentah, UU perdagangan dan kepemilikan asing yang baru, serta penundaan pelaksanaan daftar negatif investasi yang baru, secara nyata telah meningkatkan ketidakpastian akan kebijakan pemerintah. Pelarangan ekspor mineral mentah pada bulan Januari merupakan perubahan kebijakan besar yang baru terjadi dengan potensi dampak yang signifikan terhadap sektor pertambangan dan perekonomian secara lebih luas. Proses kebijakan yang kemudian menghasilkan revisi peraturan pada bulan Januari 2014 dan tantangan hukum yang terkait dengannya, semakin memperlemah persepsi iklim investasi pertambangan Indonesia, yang sebelumnya sudah memiliki peringkat sebagai salah satu yang terburuk di dunia. …dengan kebijakan Melalui pelaksanaan sebagian larangan dan pajak ekspor baru pada ekspor mineral mentah, larangan ekspor Indonesia hendak meningkatkan nilai tambah dalam negeri di dalam sektor mineral. Hal ini mineral diperkirakan diharapkan akan mendorong peningkatan pertumbuhan, lapangan kerja, dan penerimaan akan membawa fiskal. Pencapaian tujuan itu akan bergantung kepada sejauh mana kebijakan itu dapat dampak jangka pendek mendorong pembangunan fasilitas peleburan (smelter) dan pemurnian (refiner) yang baru, yang negatif dan sejauh mana perbaikan proses akan meningkatkan nilai tambah dan bergantung kepada signifikan terhadap tercapainya peningkatan yang memadai dalam penerimaan fiskal dan ekspor dari mineral penerimaan fiskal dan yang telah diproses guna mengimbangi kehilangan yang berasal dari penurunan ekspor bahan perdagangan mentah dan persyaratan impor yang lebih tinggi dari pembangunan dan pengoperasian fasilitas peleburan. Pengalaman internasional menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan demikian seringkali gagal mencapai tujuan mereka. Dengan berfokus kepada dampak jangka pendek dan menengah, Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa akan terdapat dampak negatif terhadap perdagangan bersih sebesar 12,5 miliar dolar AS dan kerugian dalam penerimaan fiskal (dari royalti, pajak ekspor, dan pajak penghasilan badan) sejumlah 6,5 miliar dolar AS dari kebijakan yang sekarang berlaku (waktu laporan ini ditulis, de jure) untuk tahun 2014-17, M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA iv Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia termasuk beban sebesar 5,5 hingga 6,5 miliar dolar AS terhadap neraca perdagangan pada tahun 2014 saja. Walau besarannya masih belum pasti, dampak negatif dari pelarangan ini, seiring dengan masalah ekonomi yang lebih luas yang timbul akibat kebijakan itu, menunjukkan perlunya upaya untuk mengevaluasi opsi-opsi kebijakan yang lebih luas guna memastikan bahwa Indonesia akan dapat menikmati manfaat semaksimal mungkin dari kekayaan mineralnya secara berkelanjutan, baik dari segi sosial maupun lingkungan hidup. Laporan Bank Dunia Sementara penyesuaian ekonomi makro jangka pendek, dan debat tentang nilai tambah bagi yang akan datang, sektor mineral, telah mendominasi debat-debat kebijakan belakangan ini, tahun pemilu juga Indonesia: Avoiding membuka peluang untuk menguji ulang aspirasi pembangunan ekonomi jangka panjang the Trap, menyatakan Indonesia yang lebih luas. Dalam dua dekade berikut, Indonesia bercita-cita untuk mencapai bahwa Indonesia dapat kesejahteraan, menghindari jebakan negara berpenghasilan menengah, dan tidak mencapai sasaran meninggalkan siapapun di belakang, dalam upayanya mengejar ketinggalannya dari ekonomi- pembangunan jangka ekonomi berpenghasilan tinggi. Sasaran-sasaran itu cukup ambisius. Realisasinya akan panjangnya yang membutuhkan pertumbuhan dan penciptaan lapangan kerja yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan, ambisius dengan serta peningkatan pemerataan. Dapatkah Indonesia mencapainya? Laporan IEQ ini strategi pertumbuhan memberikan ringkasan dari laporan Bank Dunia yang akan datang, berjudul Indonesia: yang terfokus pada Avoiding the Trap. Laporan itu menyatakan bahwa Indonesia berpotensi untuk bangkit serta produktivitas yang menjadi lebih sejahtera dan lebih merata. Namun, risiko “mengambang di tengah-tengah” tepat dan dengan juga merupakan risiko yang nyata. Jalur yang diambil oleh ekonomi akan bergantung kepada: menerapkan reformasi (i) pemilihan strategi pertumbuhan yang mendorong pewujudan potensi produktivitas struktural berprioritas ekonomi tersebut; dan (ii) implementasi yang konsisten dari sejumlah kecil reformasi tinggi… struktural berprioritas tinggi yang telah lama ada untuk mendorong pertumbuhan dan memeratakan kesejahteraan. Indonesia beruntung karena memiliki pilihan dalam membiayai reformasi itu tanpa mengancam prospek fiskal jangka panjangnya. Kesulitannya adalah bagaimana melaksanakan reformasi itu di dalam kerangka kelembagaan desentralisasi yang rumit. Namun, mengingat pentingnya hal yang dipertaruhkan, Indonesia tidak bisa tidak harus berupaya keras. …dan juga Sejalan dengan tingginya frekuensi banjir berulang pada daerah-daerah perkotaan yang menetapkan kembali terjadi pada musim hujan tahun 2014, Laporan IEQ ini juga memfokuskan kepada kebijakan-kebijakan risiko iklim dan bencana yang dihadapi Indonesia yang terus berurbanisasi, dan untuk memitigasi kecenderungan terus meningkatnya risiko-risiko ini sebagai konsekuensi dari tren urbanisasi risiko perubahan iklim tersebut. Indonesia merupakan negara terdepan di dunia dalam hal laju urbanisasi, bahkan dan bencana yang mengalahkan Cina, India, dan Thailand. Namun, banyak pusat-pusat perkotaan terletak di tampaknya akan daerah-daerah yang rawan. Penelitian terakhir menekankan pentingnya penyesuaian meningkat sejalan pembangunan infrastruktur dengan dampak perubahan iklim dan bencana untuk dengan terus membangun ketahanan, terutama pada kota-kota berukuran menengah. Di Indonesia, kota- meningkatnya kota itu adalah kota-kota yang akan menjadi pendorong pembangunan ekonomi pada urbanisasi di Indonesia dekade-dekade mendatang. Tanpa investasi dan intervensi kebijakan yang terencana secara strategis, dan kapasitas kelembagaan yang lebih kuat, urbanisasi yang dikelola secara buruk dapat menjadi rintangan terhadap pertumbuhan yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan. Yang lebih memprihatinkan, hal ini dapat juga memberikan risiko bencana dan perubahan iklim yang tidak semestinya kepada penduduk Indonesia, sehingga menyoroti kebutuhan untuk memitigasi risiko-risiko tersebut melalui rencana tata ruang yang terkendali dan terkelola dengan baik. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA v Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia A. Perkembangan ekonomi dan fiskal terkini 1. Perubahan ekonomi global menghadirkan tantangan baru Perubahan kondisi Ekonomi global semakin menguat, disebabkan oleh pemulihan ekonomi di negara-negara ekonomi global berpenghasilan tinggi, terutama Amerika Serikat (AS) dan negara-negara yang tergabung menghadirkan dalam Zona Eropa. Perkembangan ini membawa dampak positif bagi negara-negara berbagai peluang dan berkembang ) termasuk Indonesia, terutama dari sisi peningkatan perdagangan. Namun, tantangan bagi negara perkembangan internasional juga menghadirkan tantangan- tersendiri. Pertama, berkembang, termasuk pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia akan terpusast pada negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi, Indonesia pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina yang tidak lagi bertopang pada investasi yang didanai kredit dan lemahnya harga komoditas yang membentuk dua per tiga dari ekspor Indonesia. Kedua, tekanan pada suku bunga global akibat pengurangan kebijakan moneter yang akomodatif di AS dan negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi lainnya akan tetap berlangsung. Selain itu penyesuaian persepsi investor global terhadap resiko dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia telah menekan aliran investasi portfolio ke negara-negara berkembang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Meskipun perkembangan ekonomi global sedikit tidak merata, secara umum terlihat global diharapkan peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi, terutama bagi sebagian besar negara mitra dagang terus menguat… utama Indonesia. AS dan Jepang mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan PDB pada kuartal terakhir 2013, namun negara-negara zona eropa and negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi lainnya mengalami peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penilaian terhadap perkembangan ekonomi AS cukup sulit dengan adanya perubahan cuaca yang terjadi di awal tahun 2014, namun indikator-indikator utama dan data penggajian terbaru menunjukkan bahwa pemulihan masih terus berlangsung, demikian pula dengan negara-negara zona eropa. . Skenario dasar kedepan menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang terus menguat, dipimpin oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara maju (Gambar 2). Pertumbuhan negara-negara berkembang diharapkan membaik, terutama pertumbuhan Cina yang mendekati sasaran pertumbuhan resminya sebesar 7,5 persen untuk tahun 2014. Dengan demikian, kondisi ekonomi internasional akan terus mendukung permintaan ekspor Indonesia. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 1 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …dan nilai tukar Nilai tukar perdagangan Indonesia mulai stabil pada beberapa bulan terakhir, Kondisi ini perdagangan mulai konsisten dengan peningkatan pertumbuhan global yang mendorong permintaan ekspor. stabil Nilai tukar perdagangan, yang diukur dari nilai per unit ekspor dan impor, menurun pada Agustus 2013 namun telah mengalami peningkatan kembali meskipun belum mencapai 30 persen dari titik tertingginya tiga tahun yang lalu. Stabilnya harga relatif ekspor dan impor telah mendukung neraca perdagangan dan perekonomian secara umum, namun tidak terlihat tanda-tanda bahwa akan terjadi peningkatan harga komoditas yang bersifat luas. Bahkan, perkembangan harga komoditas ekspor utama Indonesia cukup beragam sepanjang tahun 2014 , harga gas alam, misalnya, meningkat 6 persen selama dua bulan pertama di tahun 2014, sementaraharga batubara turun sekitar 10 persen. Harga, minyak sawit dan minyak mentah relatif stabil, termasuk hargatembaga yang merupakan produk mineral ekpor terbesar Indonesia (sekitar 2,5 persen dari seluruh nilai ekspor). Gambar 2: Ekonomi global semakin menguat, diprakarsai Gambar 3: … nilai tukar perdagangan Indonesia relatif oleh negara berpenghasilan tinggi… stabil, walau masih berada di bawah puncaknya yang lalu (indikator gabungan utama OECD) (indeks, rata-rata 2010=100, rata-rata bergerak 3-bulanan) 102.0 130 101.5 120 import unit value Jepang 101.0 110 100.5 AS 100 100.0 Zona export unit 90 value Eropa 99.5 80 99.0 Cina terms of trade 70 98.5 60 98.0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan- Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Sumber: OECD Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Aset-aset finansial Suku bunga acuan dunia berfluktuasi pada rentang yang relatif sempit (contohnya yield 10- negara berkembang tahun AS berkisar antara 2,6-3,0 persen), seiring dengan dimulainya “penurunan” kebijakan mencatat kinerja yang moneter yang akomodatif oleh Bank Sentral AS pada bulan Desember yang lalu. Dengan rendah latar belakang hal ini, banyak pasar valuta dan ekuitas negara berkembang telah mengalami kerugian atau perlambatan dibandingkan dengan sejumlah negara berpenghasilan tinggi yang mengalami peningkatan.Sebagai contoh, indeks ekuitas MSCI Standard negara berkembang dalam dolar AS melemah sebesar 5,9 persen sepanjang tahun 2014 hingga tanggal 13 Maret lalu. Sementara indeks S&P 500 (saham-saham utama di AS) relatif stabil. Rendahnya kinerja aset negara-negara berkembang mencerminkan kekhawatiran investor terhadap penyesuaian ekonomi dan kemungkinan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih rendah yang merupakan konsekuensi dari penurunan kebijakan moneter yang akomodatif di negara-negara maju serta peningkatan suku bunga global. Hal-hal ini dapat mempengaruhi kinerja pasar keuangan Indonesia, namun sepanjang tahun 2014, kinerja pasar keuangan Indonesia relatif kuat. 2. Investasi menjadi pendorong utama penyesuaian ekonomi Penyesuaian ekonomi Ekonomi Indonesia terus mengalami penyesuaian hingga kuartal terakhir 2013 seiring Indonesia berlanjut dengan melemahnya nilai tukar perdagangan dan semakin mengetatnya kondisi pembiayaan hingga akhir 2013, eksternal akibat pengetatan kebijakan moneter dan depresiasi. Pertumbuhan PDB riil dengan melambatnya didorong oleh peningkatan ekspor bersih yang mencerminkan penurunan volume impor dan investasi dan peningkatan ekspor. Laju pertumbuhan pembentukan modal tetap masih di bawah rata-rata, meningkatnya volume menurunkan permintaan impor dan berkontribusi terhadap penyesuaian pertumbuhan. Pada ekspor bersih saat yang sama, pengeluaran konsumsi masih tetap kuat. Penyesuaian ekonomi ini diperkirakan akan berlanjut dalam jangka pendek, sehingga diperkirakan akan sedikit M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 2 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia memperlemah pertumbuhan sepanjang tahun 2014. Dalam jangka menengah, pertumbuhan diperkirakan meningkat, namun akan tetap berada di bawah 6 persen. Pertumbuhan Secara umum, pertumbuhan PDB di Indonesia tetap bertahan stabil pada 5,7 persen tahun- ekonomi,tahun-ke- ke-tahun (year-on-year, yoy) pada kuartal terakhir 2013 dibandingkan dengan 5,6 persen yoy tahun (year on year) pada kuartal ketiga (Gambar 4).Pertumbuhan produksi (output) meningkat menjadi 6,3 persen relatif moderat pada kuartal-ke-kuartal (quarter-to-quarter, qoq) saar (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, saar) pada kuartal keempat tahun kuartal empat dari 5,5 persen pada kuartal sebelumnya. PDB nominal meningkat pada 2013 didukung oleh periode tersebut, menjadi 13,2 persen yoy, disebabkan oleh peningkatan deflator PDB peningkatan kegiatan sebesar 7,1 persen yoy. Untuk tahun 2013 secara keseluruhan, pertumbuhan PDB riil ekonomi melemah menjadi 5,8 persen dari 6,3 persen pada tahun 2012, yang sebagian disebabkan oleh permintaan dalam negeri yang cukup lemah. Kuatnya ekspor bersih Ekspor bersih merupakan penyumbang terbesar, sebesar 3,9 poin persentase, bagi mendukung pertumbuhan PDB riil yoy pada kuartal keempat – yang merupakan kuartal keempat dengan pertumbuhan PDB riil kontribusi positif selama tahun 2013 (Gambar 4). Peningkatan ini bersifat sementara, karena pada kuartal keempat didorong oleh peningkatan volume ekspor mineral. Ekspor riil barang dan jasa mengalami tahun 2013… peningkatan menjadi 7,4 persen yoy pada kuartal keempat, dari 5,2 persen pada kuartal sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ekspor tahunan meningkat dari 2,0 persen pada tahun 2012 menjadi 5,3 persen pada tahun 2013. Di sisi lain, impor pada kuartal keempat tahun 2013 mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,6 persen yoy setelah meningkat ke 5,1 persen pada kuartal ketiga didorong oleh perlambatan pertumbuhan investasi tetap dan depresiasi Rupiah. Pertumbuhan impor tahunan turun dari 6,7 persen pada tahun 2012 ke 1,2 persen pada 2013 (lihat Kotak 1 untuk pembahasan lebih lanjut). Gambar 4: Ekspor bersih mendorong pertumbuhan riil PDB Gambar 5: Penyesuaian permintaan dalam negeri tetap pada kuartal 4 tahun 2013 terkonsentrasi pada investasi tetap (kontribusi komponen pengeluaran kepada pertumbuhan PDB rill yoy, poin (pertumbuhan riil yoy, persen) persentase) 14 14 Private consumption Investment Private cons. Gov cons. 12 Investment Net Exports 12 Discrepancy GDP 10 10 8 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 -2 -4 0 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Catatan: Garis menunjukkan rata-rata kuartal 1 2010 – kuartal 4 2013 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia … sementara Pertumbuhan permintaan dalam negeri melambat menjadi 5,1 persen yoy pada kuartal permintaan dalam keempat, dari 5,5 persen pada kuartal ketiga. Konsumsi swasta kehilangan momentumnya negeri mencatat laju pada kuartal akhir tahun 2013, meningkat hanya ke 3,9 persen qoq saar (dibanding 7,0 persen pertumbuhan yang pada kuartal ketiga) dan sebesar 5,3 persen yoy (dibanding 5,5 persen pada kuartal ketiga) lebih lambat (Gambar 5). Pengeluaran rumah tangga dapat terpengaruh oleh melemahnya pertumbuhan kredit konsumsi ke angka 15 persen yoy pada bulan Desember dan depresiasi Rupiah yang hampir mencapai 7 persen pada kuartal keempat. Pertumbuhan pembentukan modal tetap bruto mencapai 4,4 persen yoy pada kuartal keempat, relatif rendah jika dibandingkan dengan rata-rata laju pertumbuhan sebesar 8,8 persen yang tercatat selama periode tahun 2010-2012. Belanja mesin menurun pada kuartal keempat, sejalan dengan relatif lemahnya M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 3 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia sektor komoditas, lebih ketatnya kondisi pembiayaan, dan lebih tingginya harga barang- barang modal impor akibat depresiasi Rupiah. Investasi pembangunan gedung meningkat sebesar 6,7 persen yoy pada kuartal keempat, menyamai laju rata-ratanya pasca krisis keuangan global. Sektor pertambangan Dari sisi produksi, pertumbuhan sektor pertanian dan industri pada kuartal keempat tahun mencatat pertumbuhan 2013 meningkat menjadi 3,8 dan 5,3 persen. Dalam sektori industri, pertambangan (di luar di atas rata-rata, migas), meningkat menjadi 8,2 persen yoy, laju pertumbuhan tertingginya sejak kuartal sementara sektor jasa pertama tahun 2011 dan relatif lebih tinggi dibanding rata-rata laju pascakrisis keuangan kehilangan global sebesar 5,7 persen. Data ini sesuai dengan meningkatnya ekspor mineral pada kuartal momentumnya terakhir 2013 sebelum pelarangan mulai berlaku pada bulan Januari 2014, yang akan dibahas lebih lanjut pada Bagian 4. Pertumbuhan manufaktur dan konstruksi masing-masing mencapai 5,3 persen yoy dan 6,7 persen yoy pada kuartal keempat, sedikit lebih tinggi dari kuartal sebelumnya. Sebaliknya, sektor jasa mencatat laju pertumbuhan paling lambat sejak krisis keuangan global (6,5 persen yoy dibanding rata-rata pascakrisis sebesar 8,0 persen). Dengan demikian, dalam hal kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan PDB riil, kontribusi dari konstruksi dan pertambangan meningkat, sementara kontribusi dari sektor jasa, terutama sektor perdagangan, perhotelan dan rumah makan, mengalami penurunan (Gambar 6). Gambar 6: Kontribusi konstruksi dan pertambangan Gambar 7: Indikator terkini menunjukkan sinyal yang terhadap pertumbuhan PDB naik, sementara kontribusi jasa beragam terhadap permintaan domestik kuartal I 2014 perdagangan, perhotelan dan restoran menurun (Indeks penjualan ritel BI, penjualan kendaraan dan semen, 3mma (3 (kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan PDB riil yoy, persen) month moving average) yoy, persen) Agriculture 10 Construction and mining 10 60 motor vehicles Manufacturing Trade, Hotels and Restaurants 50 8 Other Services 8 Transport and Comms 40 GDP 30 cement 6 6 20 10 retail sales 4 4 0 2 2 -10 motorcycles -20 0 0 -30 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Data frekuensi tinggi Sejumlah indikator kegiatan ekonomi frekuensi tinggi, menunjukkan penurunan permintaan terakhir tampak dalam negeri di bulan pertama tahun 2014, kecuali penjualan ritel. Terpengaruh oleh banjir di beragam namun pulau Jawa, penjualan sepeda motor, padakhususnya, turun cukup tajam sebesar 11,3 persen konsisten dengan yoy pada bulan Januari (atau meningkat hanya 4,3 persen 3mma yoy) (Gambar 7). Indeks peningkatan konsumsi manufakturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index, PMI) HSBC untuk sektor manufaktur, swasta menjelang mencapai 50,5 pada bulan Februari, tetap dalam keadaan yang sedik ekspansif. Namun, pemilu survei BI mengenai penjualan ritel mencatat peningkatan yang signifikan ke 26,6 dan 28,8 persen yoy masing-masing untuk bulan Desember dan Januari. Tingginya penjualan ritel ini disebabkan oleh peningkatan belanja konsumsi swasta pada kuartal pertama tahun 2014, yang tampaknya didukung oleh persiapan kampanye pemilu. Pertumbuhan output Proyeksi dasar (baseline) Bank Dunia terhadap pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia tetap pada 5,3 jangka menengah persen untuk tahun 2014 (Tabel 2). Konsumsi swasta diperkirakan akan mencatat diproyeksikan relatif peningkatan sementara menjelang pemilu bulan April dan Juli. Namun, kondisi kredit yang moderat lebih ketat tampaknya akan mempengaruhi belanja rumah tangga pada tahun 2014. Sejalan dengan hal tersebut, pertumbuhan investasi juga diperkirakan akan tetap lemah pada jangka pendek akibat semakin tingginya biaya pinjaman, lebih rendahnya harga-harga komoditas, M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 4 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia dan lebih tingginya biaya impor yang didorong oleh depresiasi Rupiah. Pertumbuhan ekspor diperkirakan akan meningkat secara bertahap seiring dengan semakin membaiknya kondisi permintaan eksternal (lihat Bagian 1). Namun, kontribusi ekpor bersih terhadap pertumbuhan diperkirakan akan sedikit menurun seiring dengan pulihnya pertumbuhan impor seiring peningkatan permintaan dalam negeri. Tabel 2: Pada proyeksi dasar (base case), PDB diperkirakan akan tumbuh 5,3 persen pada 2014 dan 5,6 persen pada 2015 (persentase perubahan, kecuali dinyatakan lain) Tahun-ke-tahun pada Revisi Tahunan kuartal keempat tahunan 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2014 1. Indikator ekonomi utama Jumlah pengelompokan konsumsi 5,2 4,8 4,9 5,4 5,2 5,2 0,0 Pengelompokan konsumsi swasta 5,3 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,4 5,2 0,0 Konsumsi pemerintah 4,9 4,4 3,7 6,4 4,2 4,9 0,0 Pembentukan modal tetap bruto 4,7 4,5 6,6 4,4 5,9 6,8 0,1 Ekspor barang dan jasa 5,3 5,3 7,0 7,4 7,4 7,0 -0,1 Impor barang dan jasa 1,2 3,4 5,4 -0,6 4,4 5,7 0,0 Produk Domestik Bruto 5,8 5,3 5,6 5,7 5,5 5,7 0,0 2. Indikator eksternal Neraca pembayaran (AS$ miliar) -7,3 -2,9 1,7 - - - 9,9 Saldo neraca transaksi berjalan (AS$ miliar) -28,5 -24,4 -20,2 - - - -1,6 Sebagai bagian dari PDB (persen) -3,3 -2,9 -2,1 - - - -0,3 Neraca perdagangan (AS$ miliar) -5,3 -2,9 2,7 - - - -0,4 Saldo neraca keuangan (AS$ miliar) 22,7 21,5 21,9 - - - 11,5 3. Indikator Fiskal Pendapatan pem. pusat (% dari PDB) 15,3 15,5 - - - - -0,2 Belanja pem. pusat (% dari PDB) 17,5 18,1 - - - - 0,3 Neraca fiskal (% dari PDB) -2,2 -2,6 - - - - -0,5 Neraca primer (% dari PDB) -1,0 -1,4 - - - - 0,5 4. Pengukuran ekonomi lainnya Indeks harga konsumen 6,9 6,2 5,2 8,1 5,4 5,2 0,1 Deflator PDB 4,3 6,6 5,3 7,1 5,2 5,3 0,2 PDB nominal 10,4 12,2 11,2 13,2 11,0 11,3 0,2 5. Asumsi ekonomi Kurs tukar (Rp/AS$) 10563 12000 12000 - - - 200,0 Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (AS$/barel) 106 105 102 - - - 2,0 Pertumbuhan mitra perdagangan utama 3,5 4,0 4,1 4,1 3,7 4,4 0,1 Catatan: Angka ekspor dan impor merujuk kepada volume dari neraca nasional. Kurs tukar adalah asumsi dari rata-rata terakhir. Revisi adalah relatif dibanding proyeksi pada IEQ edisi bulan Desember 2013. Sumber: Kemenkeu; BPS; BI; CEIC; proyeksi Bank Dunia 3. Inflasi inti telah naik perlahan Tekanan pada inflasi Setelah meningkat tajam pasca kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni 2013, inflasi berkurang, kecuali harga konsumen bulanan mencatat penurunan yang cukup besar pada bulan-bulan menjelang pengaruh dari akhir tahun 2013. Namun belakangan inflasi kembali meningkat akibat faktor musiman. Pada depresiasi Rupiah saat yang sama, inflasi inti mengalami penurunan menjelang akhir 2013, namun meningkat kembali belakangan ini, sebagian diakibatkan oleh pengaruh perlemahan Rupiah yang tertunda. Dalam jangka pendek pengaruh yang tertunda dari peningkatan suku bunga akan menjaga tekanan inflasi tetap dalam kendali. Faktor-faktor musiman Tekanan harga konsumen menurun pada paruh kedua tahun 2013, setelah harga BBM mendorong naiknya bersubsidi meningkat sebesar rata-rata 33 persen pada tanggal 22 Juni (Gambar 8). inflasi IHK (headline) Penurunan permintaan domestik berkontribusi kepada perlambatan inflasi bulanan. pada beberapa bulan Pengetatan kondisi keuangan menjadi faktor tambahan akibat aliran keluar modal asing yang terakhir… terjadi pada paruh kedua tahun lalu dan peningkatan suku bunga BI dari 5,75 persen pada bulan Mei ke 7,50 persen pada bulan Desember. Pada bulan Desember 2013 dan Januari M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 5 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 2014, yang merupakan puncak musim hujan, harga-harga konsumen kembali naik secara berurutan. Secara tahun-ke-tahun, inflasi IHK mencapai 8,2 persen pada bulan Januari 2014 sebelum turun ke 7,7 persen pada bulan Februari. …sementara inflasi Inflasi harga bahan pangan terus menurun menjadi 8,8 persen yoy pada bulan Februari 2014, harga bahan pangan dari 15,1 persen yoy pada bulan Agustus atau Ramadan tahun lalu. Penurunan tekanan harga terus menurun… bahan pangan yang tercatat pada beberapa bulan terakhir disebabkan oleh deflasi harga pada sejumlah bahan pangan utama, seperti cabai merah dan bawang merah di beberapa kota di Sumatera dan wilayah Indonesia bagian timur, yang mengimbangi peningkatan harga-harga beras, tepung, dan daging sapi. Hujan sejak bulan Desember dan letusan Gunung Kelud di Jawa Timur pada bulan Februari tampaknya tidak membawa dampak yang signifikan terhadap inflasi harga bahan pangan nasional. …namun kesenjangan Sebaliknya, rendahnya hasil panen beras akibat banjir besar yang melanda Indonesia telah antara harga beras di mendorong melebarnya kesenjangan antara harga beras di dalam dan luar negeri. Pada bulan dalam dan luar negeri Desember 2013, harga beras internasional dengan kualitas yang sebanding (yang diwakili oleh telah melebar beras Vietnam kualitas menengah sebagai acuan) mencapai 41-52 persen lebih murah dari harga beras kulakan di dalam negeri. Kesenjangan harga itu meningkat menjadi 70-83 persen pada bulan Februari 2014. Peningkatan perbedaan harga itu didorong oleh tiga faktor: menurunnya harga beras internasional akibat kelebihan pasokan di pasar internasional, peningkatan harga beras dalam negeri (naik sebesar 7,3-10,3 persen yoy), dan depresiasi Rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Inflasi inti meningkat, Inflasi inti, yang tidak menyertakan harga-harga barang volatil seperti bahan pangan dan sebagian disebabkan energi, menurun pada kuartal keempat tahun 2013 namun kembali meningkat pada awal oleh depresiasi Rupiah tahun ini. Secara tahun-ke-tahun, inflasi IHK inti telah meningkat dari 4,0 persen yoy pada bulan Juni 2013 ke 5,3 persen yoy pada bulan Februari 2014, nilai tertinggi yang pernah tercatat sejak Juni 2009. Hal ini sebagian disebabkan oleh pengaruh perlemahan Rupiah ke harga-harga dalam negeri. Rupiah mengalami depresiasi sebesar 25 persen antara bulan Mei 2013 dan Januari 2014 sebelum menguat sebesar sekitar 5 persen pada bulan Februari (Gambar 8). Gambar 8: Tekanan inflasi telah meningkat dalam beberapa Gambar 9: Kesenjangan antara harga beras di dalam dan bulan terakhir, pengaruh tunda dari perlemahan Rupiah dan luar negeri telah melebar faktor-faktor musiman (perbedaan harga, persen; harga beras kulakan, Rp per kg) (perubahan 3-bulan/3-bulanan, persen (LHS), Rupiah per dolar AS (RHS)) 1.8 13,000 100 Percentage spread (LHS) 10,000 1.6 domestic rice, 12,000 IR-II (RHS) 8,000 1.4 75 1.2 11,000 6,000 50 1.0 Headline USD/IDR 10,000 4,000 0.8 25 0.6 9,000 2,000 0.4 0 8,000 0 0.2 Core Vietnamese rice 5 percent broken (RHS) 0.0 7,000 -25 -2,000 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: Pasar Induk Beras Cipinang; Food and Agriculture Organization; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 6 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Inflasi IHK Ke depannya, inflasi IHK tahun-ke-tahun diperkirakan akan mencapai puncaknya pada diperkirakan akan kuartal kedua tahun 2014. Setelah itu, tekanan inflasi diproyeksikan akan menurun akibat turun ke sedikit di pengaruh dasar yang menguntungkan dan perlemahan pertumbuhan. Menjelang akhir tahun bawah sasaran batas 2014, inflasi IHK bulanan diperkirakan akan turun sedikit di bawah rentang sasaran batas atas BI pada akhir atas Bank Indonesia (BI) sebesar 3,5-5,5 persen yoy dan tetap bertahan hingga akhir tahun tahun 2014 2015. Inflasi inti diperkirakan akan kurang lebih mengikuti jalur lintasan yang serupa, dengan menurunnya pengaruh buruk dari depresiasi kurs tukar valuta. Risiko-risiko terhadap proyeksi skenario dasar (base case) bersifat seimbang dan berkaitan dengan kemungkinan berlanjutnya perlemahan Rupiah dan peningkatan harga-harga yang diatur oleh negara di masa depan, besarnya dampak belanja yang berkaitan dengan pemilu, dengan latar belakang perlemahan permintaan dan pertumbuhan kredit dalam negeri. 4. Neraca pembayaran kuartal keempat menguat, namun risiko tetap ada Neraca berjalan Neraca pembayaran Indonesia berganti menjadi positif pada kuartal penutup tahun 2014, Indonesia kuartal setelah sebelumnya mencatat defisit selama tiga kuartal berturut-turut, sehingga mengisi keempat meningkat, kembali cadangan devisa negara (Gambar 10). Kuatnya kinerja itu didorong oleh hasil yang namun sebagian kokoh dalam neraca perdagangan barang-barang, dimana diantaranya disebabkan oleh disebabkan oleh peningkatan ekspor mineral sebelum berlakunya larangan ekspor mineral pada bulan Januari. faktor-faktor yang Penurunan impor terus berlanjut, dengan impor barang modal dan setengah stabil, sementara bersifat sementara barang-barang konsumsi sedikit meningkat. Penerbitan surat utang negara dan pinjaman swasta dari luar negeri, serta repatriasi simpanan dan valas, membantu membiayai defisit neraca berjalan yang mencapai 4 miliar dolar AS. Meskipun dengan memperhitungkan perbaikan pada kuartal terakhir tahun 2013, neraca dasar, yang merupakan jumlah dari saldo neraca berjalan dan investasi langsung bersih, diperkirakan akan tetap bernilai negatif selama jangka pendek. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pembiayaan luar negeri bersih Indonesia tampaknya akan terus bergantung kepada investasi portofolio yang secara potensial bersifat volatil dan aliran investasi lainnya. Gambar 10: Neraca pembayaran menjadi positif pada kuartal Gambar 11: …setelah peningkatan yang besar dalam neraca keempat… perdagangan barang menyebabkan kontraksi pada defisit (saldo neraca, miliar dolar AS) neraca berjalan secara keseluruhan (saldo neraca, miliar dolar AS) Current account Net direct investment Current transfers 20 Net portfolio Net other capital 20 Income balance Overall balance Basic balance Services trade balance 15 15 Goods trade balance Current account balance 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Catatan: Neraca dasar = FDI bersih + saldo neraca berjalan Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 7 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Perkembangan Neraca perdagangan barang Gambar 12: Bijih, terak dan abu (O-S-A) memberi eksternal pada kuartal mencatat surplus yang hampir kontribusi besar terhadap pertumbuhan ekspor kuartal 4 keempat didorong oleh mencapai 5 miliar dolar AS dan penurunan ekspor pada Jan 2014 kuatnya pertumbuhan pada kuartal keempat tahun (kontribusi ke pertumbuhan penerimaan ekspor yoy, poin persentase) ekspor, namun 2013, pencapaian tertinggi 15 O-S-A Coal sebagian disebabkan sejak kuartal keempat tahun Palm oil oleh tingginya ekspor 2011 (Gambar 11). 10 Rubber and products mineral mentah Peningkatan ekspor Oil and gas berkontribusi hingga 94 persen 5 Others terhadap peningkatan pada neraca perdagangan. Hal 0 tersebut sebagian didukung oleh momentum peningkatan -5 ekspor bijih mineral sebelum pemberlakuan larangan ekspor -10 mineral pada pertengahan bulan Januari 2014. Peningkatan ekspor bijih, -15 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 terak, dan abu – perkiraan batas atas bagi ekspor mineral Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia mentah yang terpengaruh oleh larangan tersebut – memberikan kontribusi sebesar 2,7 poin persentase kepada pertumbuhan ekspor sebesar 10,2 persen yoy pada bulan Desember, sebelum mengalami kontraksi pada bulan Januari, dengan kontribusi sebesar 1 poin persentase ke 5,8 persen pada penurunan ekspor tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan pertama tahun 2014 (Gambar 12). Nilai ekspor bijih, terak, dan abu menurun dari 970 juta dolar AS pada bulan Desember 2013 ke 290 juta dolar AS pada bulan Januari 2014. Bank Dunia memperkirakan kerugian ekspor yang berkaitan dengan larangan ekspor mineral mentah, secara relatif terhadap keadaan tanpa larangan atau tanpa pajak ekspor, berjumlah 5,3-7 miliar dolar AS setahun. Dampak dari larangan ekspor mineral itu meningkat dengan terlambatnya penerbitan izin ekspor bagi mineral-mineral yang telah diproses. Untuk pembahasan lebih lanjut tentang larangan ekspor mineral dan dampaknya, lihat Bagian B.1. Melemahnya impor Penyusutan impor menjadi bagian dari dinamika perdagangan belakangan ini, walau tidak barang modal dan terlalu besar pada kuartal keempat. Sebagai contoh, meskipun penurunan impor hanya setengah jadi juga merupakan 6 persen pada kuartal keempat relatif terhadap kuartal ketiga tahun 2014, berkontribusi pada penurunan itu sebenernya berkontribusi hingga 60 persen pada peningkatan neraca peningkatan neraca perdagangan dibandingkan dengan posisi satu tahun sebelumnya. Impor barang modal dan perdagangan setengah jadi melemah, dengan impor barang modal pada khususnya hanya mencatat rata- rata 16 persen lebih rendah dari lajunya pada paruh kedua tahun 2013. Impor barang konsumsi hampir tidak memiliki kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan impor secara keseluruhan (Gambar 13). Menurunnya impor barang modal berkaitan dengan penurunan laju investasi yang cukup mencolok (lihat juga Kotak 1). Neraca perdagangan migas teteap menjadi beban kepada neraca perdagangan, dengan defisit sebesar 1 miliar dolar AS pada kuartal keempat. Aliran masuk modal Aliran modal masuk dan neraca keuangan meningkat dengan tajam, dari 5,6 miliar dolar AS dan neraca finansial pada kuartal ketiga tahun 2013 ke 9,2 miliar dolar AS pada kuartal keempat, sebagian besar meningkat berkat didorong oleh aliran pada sub-rekening “investasi lain”. Dalam hal ini, repatriasi aset luar kenaikan pinjaman negeri telah membalikkan aliran keluar modal sebesar USD 2,3 miliar pada kuartal ketiga swasta dan repatriasi tahun 2013. Kuatnya penarikan utang luar negeri oleh dunia usaha dalam negeri modal asing yang berkontribusi hingga 4,1 miliar dolar AS dalam aliran masuk utang investasi lain, naik dari signifikan aliran keluar sebesar 133 juta dolar AS pada kuartal ketiga. Aliran masuk penanaman modal asing langsung (FDI) sesuai dengan rata-rata tiga tahun sebesar sekitar 4 miliar dolar AS per kuartal. Akuisisi Pertamina atas ladang-ladang minyak di Algeria dengan nilai sekitar 2,5 miliar dolar AS berkontribusi terhadap penurunan investasi langsung bersih, menjadi 1,6 miliar dolar AS dari 5,6 miliar pada kuartal ketiga. Sebagai akibatnya, neraca dasar tetap negatif, walau terdapat kontraksi defisit neraca berjalan yang besar. Investasi portofolio M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 8 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia bersih secara umum tetap stabil pada 1,8 miliar dolar AS di kuartal keempat, dibantu dengan pembelian surat utang negara oleh pihak asing (Gambar 14). Sebaliknya, ekuitas mencatat aliran keluar modal yang berlanjut pada paruh kedua tahun 2013, sebelum kembali menjadi positif pada bulan Januari. Gambar 13: Impor melemah pada kuartal keempat, dengan Gambar 14: Aliran masuk modal bersih ke surat utang turunnya barang modal dan jatuhnya barang setengah jadi negara dalam negeri sejak bulan September telah (nilai pertumbuhan impor yoy , persen) mendukung investasi portofolio (cadangan devisa dan aliran masuk portofolio, miliar dolar AS) Intermediate Consumption Aliran masuk portofolio Capital Oil & Gas asing, (RHS): Equities SUN SBI 36 Total imports 150 5.0 Cadangan internasional (LHS) 125 2.5 24 100 0.0 12 75 -2.5 0 50 -5.0 -12 25 -7.5 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Defisit neraca berjalan Neraca berjalan Tabel 3: Diproyeksikan defisit neraca berjalan sebesar 2,9 diproyeksikan akan diproyeksikan akan tetap persen dari PDB pada kasus dasar (base case) tetap berada sedikit di berada sedikit di atas 2 (miliar dolar AS kecuali dinyatakan lain) atas 2 persen dari PDB persen dari PDB pada tahun 2013 2014 2015 Keseluruhan neraca pada tahun 2014 dan 2014 meskipun telah terjadi pembayaran -7,3 -2,9 1,7 akan tetap bertahan penurunan yang signifikan Sebagai % dari PDB -0,8 -0,3 0,2 dalam jangka pada kuartal terakhir 2014 Neraca berjalan -28,5 -24,4 -20,2 menengah (Tabel 3). Seperti telah Sebagai % dari PDB -3,3 -2,9 -2,1 disinggung, pemberlakuan Perdagangan -5,3 -2,9 2,7 pelarangan ekspor mineral Pendapatan -27,2 -25,7 -27,0 mentah, serta penundaan Transfer 4,1 4,2 4,2 penerbitan izin ekspor Neraca Keuangan & mineral yang telah diproses, Modal 22,7 21,5 21,9 diperkirakan akan sangat Sebagai % dari PDB 2,6 2,5 2,3 membebani neraca Investasi langsung 14,8 12,0 11,9 perdagangan kuartal pertama. Investasi portofolio 9,8 10,8 10,6 Memasuki tahun 2015, Investasi lain -1,9 -1,3 -0,7 neraca perdagangan yang Catatan: positif diperkirakan akan Neraca dasar -13,7 -12,4 -8,2 Sebagai % dari PDB -1,6 -1,5 -0,9 berkontribusi terhadap Catatan: Neraca dasar = saldo neraca berjalan + FDI bersih penurunan defisit neraca Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia berjalan selama tahun tersebut, namun defisit struktural yang cukup besar dalam sub-rekening penerimaan dan jasa-jasa akan tetap bertahan. Proyeksi ini mengasumsikan kondisi keuangan global yang tetap mendukung,sementara ke depan kondisi keuangan global masih menghadapi sejumlah risiko, seperti dibahas pada Bagian 7. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 9 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 1: Faktor penentu permintaan impor Indonesia: investasi dan ekspor memainkan peran penting Pertumbuhan volume impor di Indonesia mencatat penurunan yang signifikan pada tahun 2013. Estimasi dengan menggunakan error correction model, (ECM) menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar penurunan permintaan impor dapat dijelaskan oleh perlambatan investasi tetap yang cukup besar (konsisten dengan penurunan yang tercatat pada impor barang modal) dan peningkatan harga barang-barang impor relatif terhadap barang-barang dalam negeri. Secara historis, konsumsi rumah tangga belum pernah menjadi faktor penentu yang signifikan bagi pertumbuhan impor. Seperti prosedur standar di dalam literatur, model ECM dapat digunakan untuk mempelajari pengaruh jangka pendek dan panjang terhadap permintaan impor riil dari tiga komponen permintaan dari neraca nasional dan harga-harga relatif, dimana harga relatif didefinisikan sebagai rasio dari deflator impor terhadap indeks harga konsumen (IHK). Seluruh variabel diubah menjadi logaritma dan periode sampel adalah kuartal pertama tahun 1993 – kuartal keempat tahun 2013. Hasil-hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa, secara statistika, konsumsi swasta bukan merupakan faktor penentu yang signifikan bagi pertumbuhan impor (Tabel 4). Untuk jangka pendek, peningkatan investasi sebesar satu persen menyebabkan peningkatan sekitar 0,5 poin persentase terhadap permintaan impor. Selain itu, peningkatan ekspor sebesar satu persen terkait dengan peningkatan impor sebesar 0,6 poin persentase karena barang impor digunakan dalam produksi ekspor (lihat IEQ edisi bulan Maret 2012 untuk perincian tentang pentingnya peran impor dalam nilai tambah ekspor di Indonesia). Pengaruh jangka panjang investasi lebih lemah dibandingkan dengan pengaruhnya dalam jangka pendek, sementara pengaruh dari ekspor tetap kuat. Seperti telah diperkirakan, peningkatan harga barang-barang impor relatif terhadap barang-barang dalam negeri akan menyebabkan penurunan permintaan impor. Dekomposisi pertumbuhan tahunan impor rill menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar penurunan yang terjadi pada tahun 2012 merupakan dampak dari perlambatan ekspor, sementara permintaan bagi barang input yang diimpor untuk produksi ekspor diperkirakan berkontribusi terhadap hampir seluruh pertumbuhan impor pada tahun 2013. Temuan-temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa penurunan impor tidak selalu mengakibatkan peningkatan neraca perdagangan, karena penurunan itu dapat berkaitan dengan penurunan ekspor. Penurunan pertumbuhan investasi yang signifikan, seperti yang dibahas pada Bagian 2, juga tercermin pada komposisi permintaan impor pada tahun 2013. Selain itu, lebih tingginya harga-harga impor, yang sebagian disebabkan oleh perlemahan Rupiah pada tahun 2013, juga telah membawa pengaruh negatif terhadap impor. Tabel 4: Investasi dan ekspor mendorong permintaan Gambar 15: Perlemahan ekspor menurunkan pertumbuhan bagi impor riil impor pada 2012, dan ekspor turut mendorong hampir seluruh pertumbuhan impor pada tahun 2013 (perkiraan kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan volume impor, poin persentase) ∆ Ln Impor 18% Cons Pengaruh jangka pendek: Inv ∆ Ln Konsumsi -0,11 16% Exp (0,16) 14% ∆ Ln Investasi 0,49** Rel prices 12% Other (0,21) ∆ Ln Ekspor 0,59*** 10% (0,10) 8% ∆ Ln Harga relatif -0,15(*) 6% (0,10) 4% Pengaruh jangka panjang: Ln Konsumsi -0,05 2% (0,31) 0% Ln Investasi 0,22* -2% (0,11) -4% Ln Ekspor 0,87*** 2010 2011 2012 2013 (0,17) ∆ Ln Harga relatif -0,28* (0,16) Koefisien koreksi kesalahan: -0,51*** (0,10) Jumlah observasi 83 R-kuadrat   0,73 Catatan: standar error yang kuat dalam tanda kurung; *** Catatan: “Other” termasuk dampak tunda pertumbuhan impor dan p<0,01, ** p<0,05, * p<0,1, (*) p<0,15 regresi residual Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 10 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 5. Mengikuti pengetatan kebijakan moneter, pertumbuhan kredit melemah Kebijakan moneter Pada paruh kedua tahun lalu, Bank Indonesia (BI) mengambil fokus yang jelas dalam telah diperketat… memfasilitasi penyesuaian neraca luar negeri Indonesia, yang berlangsung seperti dijelaskan pada Bagian 4 di atas. Kebijakan moneter diperketat selama bulan Juni-November 2013, dimana BI meningkatkan batas bawah koridor suku bunganya (fasilitas simpanan overnight, FASBI, suku bunga) dan BI Rate sebesar 175 basis poin secara kumulatif, menjadi masing- masing 5,75 persen dan 7,5 persen. Selain itu, BI juga meningkatkan persyaratan giro wajib minumum (GWM) sekunder dari 2,5 persen pada bulan September menjadi 4 persen pada bulan Desember, dan persyaratan cadangan devisa dari 1 ke 8 persen pada periode yang sama. Kotak 2 memberikan sudut pandang tambahan akan posisi kebijakan moneter tersebut. Posisi kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat pada paruh kedua tahun lalu, dan juga penurunan permintaan kredit yang berasal dari pertumbuhan investasi tetap yang moderat, telah berkontribusi terhadap perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit. Moderasi dalam pertumbuhan simpanan dan terbatasnya ruang rasio hutang-terhadap-simpanan (loan-to-deposit ratio, LDR), terutama pada sejumlah bank-bank yang lebih kecil, menunjukkan bahwa perlemahan pertumbuhan kredit tampaknya akan terus bertahan dalam jangka pendek. Kotak 2: Posisi kebijakan moneter Indonesia dari perspektif Taylor’s rule Taylor’s rule (aturan Taylor)* memberikan perspektif terhadap Gambar 16: Setelah kenaikan akhir-akhir ini, BI Rate posisi kebijakan moneter, dengan mengevaluasi suku bunga mendekati perkiraan Taylor’s rule berdasarkan inflasi inti nominal relatif terhadap deviasi dalam inflasi dari sasaran dan (spread antara BI Rate dan suku bunga optimal Taylor berbasis aturan, output dari output potential (potensi produksi). Dengan poin persentase, LHS; BI Rate persen, RHS) menggunakan perkiraan koefisien IMF yang terakhir (2012), 0.0 8 dapat dihitung perbedaan antara BI Rate dan suku bunga 7 kebijakan optimal berbasis Taylor’s rule (Gambar 16). Pada -0.5 BI Rate (RHS) perkiraan ini IHK inti digunakan sebagai pengukur inflasi, sejak 6 IHK headline meningkat secara signifikan dan sementara karena -1.0 dampak kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan Juni 2013. 5 Selisih (spread) negatif yang tercatat pada tahun 2011 dan 2012 -1.5 4 menunjukkan bahwa BI Rate sebetulnya kurang dari yang diperkirakan oleh spesifikasi Taylor’s rule di atas. Selisih ini, Spread (LHS) 3 -2.0 sementara tetap negatif, turun secara signifikan dalam nilai 2 absolut pada tahun 2013 ketika BI meningkatkan BI Rate demi -2.5 memperketat kondisi moneter. 1 Namun kondisi likuiditas aktual secara keseluruhan nampaknya -3.0 0 akan lebih ketat dibanding yang ditunjukkan oleh penilaian sempit yang memfokuskan pada BI Rate karena dua alasan. Pertama, sejak 2012 BI telah melaksanakan langkah-langkah kehati-hatian yang penting yang cenderung kepada pengetatan: Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia berdasar perkiraan IMF (2012) penurunan rasio hutang-terhadap-nilai (loan-to-value) (Juni 2012) dan hutang-terhadap-simpanan (loan-to-deposit) (Agustus 2013), meningkatkan syarat uang muka bagi properti rumah tinggal selain tempat tinggal utama (September 2013), dan rasio giro wajib minimum sekunder yang lebih tinggi (Desember 2013). Kedua, suku bunga pasar uang, yang lebih rendah dari BI Rate selama lebih dari dua tahun, meningkat melampaui BI Rate pada bulan November 2013, yang membawa pengetatan likuiditas tambahan. Catatan: *Taylor, John B., 1993, “Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, pp. 195-214. ** Untuk rincian metodologis dan perkiraan koefisien, lihat IMF, 2012, “Indonesia: Selected Issues”, Country Report No. 12/278 …sementara kondisi Beralih ke kondisi pasar valuta, yang mencatat beberapa perkembangan positif pada pasar valuta telah beberapa bulan terakhir. Rupiah telah menguat sebesar lebih dari 6 persen dari Rp 12.242 per membaik dolar AS pada awal tahun 2014 menjadi Rp 11.449 pada tanggal 10 Maret 2014. Cadangan devisa meningkat dari 95 miliar dolar AS pada bulan September 2013 menjadi 100 miliar pada bulan Januari 2014. Selain itu pada tanggal 6 Maret 2014 Bank Indonesia dan Bank of Korea menetapkan perjanjian bilateral currency swap sekitar KRW 10,7 triliun (Rp 115 triliun) untuk periode awal selama tiga tahun. Akhirnya, pada tanggal 19 Februari 2014, Asosiasi Bank Singapura mulai menggunakan Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) sebagai kurs acuan bagi non-deliverable forward (NDF), yang diikuti dengan penyatuan kurs tukar luar dan M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 11 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia dalam negeri Rupiah sejak bulan Oktober 2013. Langkah-langkah tersebut mengirim sinyal yang positif akan kepercayaan pasar terhadap transparansi harga spot dalam negeri pada pasar kurs valuta asing yang diawasi oleh Bank Indonesia, dan akan memfasilitasi lindung nilai (hedging) valuta oleh investor asing menggunakan NDF, secara potensial mendukung aliran masuk modal portofolio. Pertumbuhan kredit Pertumbuhan nominal kredit bank telah turun dari 23,1 persen yoy pada awal tahun 2013 telah semakin menjadi 21,6 persen pada bulan Desember. Secara riil (dikurangi menggunakan inflasi IHK), melambat… pertumbuhan kredit turun dari 18 persen yoy pada bulan Januari 2013 ke 12,2 persen pada bulan Desember. Karena bagian kredit dengan mata uang asing mencapai 16 persen dari jumlah kredit yang beredar, angka kredit nominal mengalami inflasi melalui depresiasi Rupiah yang tercatat pada tahun 2013. Dengan demikian, tanpa menyertakan pengaruh mata uang, menurut BI penurunan kredit bersifat lebih signifikan dari yang ditunjukkan oleh angka-angka di atas, dimana kredit nominal meningkat 17,4 yoy pada Desember. …sebagian besar Kredit konsumen, yang berjumlah sekitar seperempat dari seluruh kredit, mendorong karena perlambatan perlambatan pada pertumbuhan kredit nominal. Pertumbuhan kredit konsumen turun dari kredit konsumen 20 persen yoy pada pertengahan tahun 2013 menjadi 13,7 persen pada akhir tahun. Walau sejauh ini konsumsi rumah tangga masih tetap bertahan kuat, faktor-faktor penghambat pembiayaan dapat melemahkan belanja dalam jangka pendek, yang menunjukkan tambahan tekanan turun bagi konsumsi riil, seperti dibahas pada Bagian 2. Pada waktu yang bersamaan, laju pertumbuhan kredit modal kerja, yang memiliki bagian hampir 50 persen dari keseluruhan kredit, dan laju pertumbuhan kredit investasi, tetap bertahan stabil masing- masing pada 20 persen dan 32 persen sejak bulan Juni tahun lalu. Gambar 17: Kenaikan bunga pinjaman bank umum masih di Gambar 18: Bank-bank yang lebih kecil lebih rentan bawah BI Rate terhadap perlambatan dalam pertumbuhan simpanan (persen) (aset bank, triliun Rp, sumbu x dan besar lingkaran; LDR, persen) 16 120 14 Consumption 110 Working Capital 100 12 Investment 90 10 80 8 BI rate 70 6 60 4 50 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 0 200 400 600 800 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Catatan: Sampel 25 bank yang memiliki 75 persen jumlah aset perbankan; dua garis adalah batasan sasaran BI untuk loan to deposit Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Lebih lemahnya Pertumbuhan simpanan terus menurun dengan laju yang lebih cepat dari pertumbuhan kondisi kredit pemberian pinjaman, meningkatkan rasio Hutang-terhadap-Simpanan (Loan-to-Deposit Ratio, tampaknya akan LDR), yang dapat semakin menghambat pertumbuhan kredit. Pertumbuhan simpanan pada bertahan, dengan bulan Desember mencapai 13,3 persen yoy, turun dari 15,6 persen yoy satu tahun perlambatan sebelumnya. LDR agregat bank-bank umum mencapai 89,7 persen pada bulan Desember pertumbuhan 2013, naik dari 83,6 persen pada akhir tahun 2012 dan mendekati batas atas dari batas simpanan/deposit dan sasaran BI sebesar 92 persen. LDR dari lima bank terbesar berada di bawah batas atas BI. terbatasnya ruang LDR Namun, melihat sampel dari 25 bank yang memiliki 75 persen dari aset-aset perbankan, LDR dari bank-bank yang berukuran lebih kecil, yaitu dengan ukuran aset kurang dari Rp 200 triliun, bervariasi cukup besar dari 60 hingga 109 persen (Gambar 17). Sekitar 30 persen dari M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 12 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia bank-bank pada kategori ini memiliki LDR yang melampaui batas atas dari batasan yang menjadi sasaran BI. Metrik risiko Indikator-indikator kesehatan sektor perbankan Indonesia masih tetap baik, dengan sejumlah perbankan secara tekanan terhadap likuiditas bagi bank-bank dengan ukuran aset yang lebih kecil. Rasio kredit agregat masih sehat, macet (non-performing loan) secara agregat meningkat ke 1,8 persen pada akhir tahun 2013 dari dengan sejumlah 2 persen pada awal tahun. Rasio kecukupan modal bertahan stabil sedikit di bawah 19 persen tekanan likuiditas pada sejak bulan April tahun lalu. Terdapat sedikit penurunan pada rata-rata margin bunga bersih bank-bank yang lebih (net interest margin), karena pengaruh dari peningkatan BI Rate belum sepenuhnya diteruskan kecil kepada konsumen. Penetapan perjanjian Kondisi likuiditas pasar uang antar bank diperkirakan akan meningkat setelah suatu mini repo master akan perjanjian mini repo master ditetapkan oleh delapan bank pada bulan Desember yang lalu mendukung likuiditas dengan tambahan 38 bank lain pada bulan Februari. Perjanjian baru ini diperkirakan akan dalam sistem meningkatkan volume perdagangan pasar uang dan akan melengkapi transaksi-transaksi perbankan tanpa jaminan yang kini mendominasi pasar antar bank di Indonesia. Pertumbuhan harga Pinjaman ke sektor properti (sekitar 15 persen dari jumlah pinjaman bank) dan pertumbuhan properti juga telah harganya telah melambat sejak pertengahan tahun 2013. Hal ini sejalan dengan pengetatan melemah kondisi moneter, dan mungkin juga dipengaruhi dampak dari pengetatan rasio loan-to-value properti pada tahun lalu. Perlambatan pemberian pinjaman pada kuartal 4 tampak jelas; pada bulan Desember, pertumbuhan pinjaman ke properti turun ke 26,5 persen yoy atau 1,1 persen qoq dari 30,6 persen yoy atau 4,9 persen qoq pada bulan September. Harga rumah tinggal meningkat sebesar 1,8 persen qoq pada bulan Desember dibanding nilai tingginya sebesar 4,8 persen qoq pada bulan Maret 2013. Harga rumah tinggal yang berukuran lebih kecil mencatat perlambatan yang paling besar, dari 8,6 persen qoq pada bulan Maret menjadi 1,8 persen pada bulan Desember. Pertumbuhan harga apartemen rumah tinggal mencapai puncaknya sebesar 12 persen qoq pada bulan Juni dan melambat ke 9 persen pada bulan September dan 3,5 persen pada bulan Desember. Pertumbuhan harga lahan industri juga menurun dari 13 persen qoq pada bulan Juni ke 0,9 persen pada bulan Desember. 6. Ruang gerak fiskal tahun 2014 lebih sempit Tekanan fiskal akibat Defisit fiskal pemerintah pada tahun 2013 lebih rendah dari proyeksi, terutama dikarenakan penurunan pendapatan tidak tercapai pencairan belanja ketimbang peningkatan pendapatan. Penurunan dan belanja subsidi pertumbuhan pendapatan diperkirakan akan berlanjut pada tahun 2014, sementara pada sisi BBM menegaskan pengeluaran, belanja subsidi BBM terus memberikan tekanan fiskal yang signifikan, yang perlunya reformasi menekankan pentingnya mengambil langkah-langkah reformasi lanjutan. fiskal lanjutan Defisit fiskal Menurut data sementara yang belum diaudit, realisasi APBN 2013 mencatat defisit sebesar sementara tahun 2013 Rp 209,5 triliun (2,2 persen dari PDB), di bawah asumsi APBN-P sebesar 2,4 persen dan adalah 2,2 persen dari proyeksi Bank Dunia sebesar 2,5 persen dari PDB yang tercantum pada IEQ edisi bulan PDB Desember 2013. Lebih rendahnya defisit dari perkiraan untuk tahun 2013 ini, walau dengan pertumbuhan pendapatan yang lebih lemah dari yang dianggarkan, terutama mencerminkan rendahnya pencairan belanja dibanding alokasi yang telah ditetapkan dalam APBN-P. Pertumbuhan nominal Pengumpulan pendapatan hanya mencapai 95,2 persen dari asumsi APBN-P 2013 sebesar dan pengumpulan Rp 1.502 triliun. Hal ini sebagian besar disebabkan oleh perlemahan realisasi pendapatan pendapatan pada pajak yang hanya mencapai 93,4 persen dari sasarannya di tahun 2013. Dibandingkan dengan tahun 2013 berada jauh tahun-tahun sebelumnya, angka ini merupakan realisasi paling rendah dari sasaran di bawah tahun-tahun pendapatan dalam APBN-P, terhitung sejak tahun 2006. Pengumpulan pendapatan bukan sebelumnya… pajak telah sejalan dengan proyeksi APBN, yang didukung oleh kuatnya pendapatan migas berkat depresiasi Rupiah. Secara keseluruhan, jumlah pendapatan hanya mencatat pertumbuhan nominal yang moderat sebesar 6,8 persen yoy pada tahun 2013, jauh di bawah rata-rata pertumbuhan nominal sebesar 16,5 persen selama periode tahun 2010-2012 (Gambar 19). Seluruh jenis pendapatan utama mencatat pertumbuhan di bawah rata-rata (Gambar 20). M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 13 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …sementara beban Hingga akhir tahun 2013, jumlah pencairan belanja mencapai 95 persen dari rencana APBN- subsidi energi kembali P sebesar Rp 1.726 triliun, lebih rendah dari pencairan sebesar 96,3 persen pada tahun 2012. melampaui sasaran Namun, pencairan jenis belanja inti, yaitu belanja modal dan sosial, mencatat peningkatan APBN-P dibanding tahun-tahun sebelumnya, sebesar 89,1 persen untuk modal (82,4 persen pada tahun 2012) dan 95,9 persen bagi belanja sosial (87,9 persen pada tahun 2012). Peningkatan laju pencairan belanja modal ini patut diperhatikan, walau laju pertumbuhan nominal dari belanja modal mengalami sedikit penurunan pada tahun 2013 menjadi 18 persen (dibanding 23 persen pada 2012). Pencairan belanja barang sedikit lebih rendah pada tahun 2013 (85,5 persen dari rencana) dibanding tahun 2012 (87,0 persen dari sasaran tahunan). Selain itu, tahun 2013 sekali lagi mencatat belanja subsidi BBM melampaui sasaran APBN-P, sebesar Rp 10 triliun (5 persen lebih besar dibanding asumsi), menjadi Rp 210 triliun. Terdapat pula kewajiban subsidi BBM sebesar Rp 40 triliun yang tercatat menjelang akhir tahun, namun belum dibayar, sehingga tidak disertakan di dalam realisasi APBN 2013 yang menggunakan pendekatan kas/tunai. Kewajiban itu akan menambah biaya subsidi BBM secara akumulasi pada tahun 2013 menjadi Rp 240-250 triliun. Tambahan Rp 40 triliun itu, atau sekitar 20 persen dari anggaran subsidi BBM, tampaknya akan dibayar pada tahun 2014. Angka itu setara dengan 0,3 persen dari PDB dan akan memberikan tambahan tekanan fiskal kepada APBN tahun 2014. Gambar 19: Pertumbuhan pendapatan nominal melambat Gambar 20: …didorong penurunan yang luas dalam lintas lebih cepat dibanding pertumbuhan pengeluaran pada tiga sumber pendapatan tahun terakhir… (pertumbuhan nominal yoy, persen) (pertumbuhan nominal yoy, persen, dan persen dari PDB) Revenues (LHS, nominal growth yoy, %) Income tax O&G Income tax N-O&G Expenditures (LHS, nominal growth yoy, %) Sales tax (VAT) Excises Budget balance (RHS, % of GDP) Int'l trade taxes NTR O&G 50 0.0 NTR N-O&G 40 100 -0.5 30 80 20 -1.0 60 10 40 -1.5 0 20 -2.0 -10 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20 -2.5 -20 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Catatan: NTR adalah penerimaan bukan pajak, O&G adalah migas, N-O&G adalah non-migas Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 14 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 5: Proyeksi defisit fiskal Bank Dunia untuk tahun 2014 telah direvisi naik karena perlemahan pendapatan dan peningkatan belanja subsidi (triliun Rp, kecuali dinyatakan lain) 2013 2014 2014 2014 IEQ IEQ Realisasi awal APBN kuartal 4 2013 kuartal 1 2014 A. Pendapatan Negara dan Hibah 1.429 1.667 1.603 1.581 1. Pendapatan Pajak 1.072 1.280 1.245 1.216 2. Pendapatan Bukan Pajak 353 385 353 362 B. Pengeluaran 1.639 1.842 1.819 1.845 1. Pemerintah Pusat, terdiri dari 1.126 1.250 1.234 1.259 Pegawai 221 263 261 261 Barang 168 216 184 184 Modal 172 184 185 185 Subsidi, terdiri dari 355 334 391 416 Subsidi BBM* 210 211 239 267 Subsidi listrik 100 71 100 103 2. Transfer ke Daerah 513 593 585 586 C. Neraca Primer -97 -54 -88 -138 D. Surplus/Defisit -210 -175 -216 -264 sebagai persen dari PDB -2,2 -1,7 -2,1 -2,6 E. Pembiayaan Bersih 230 175 n.a. n.a. 1. Pembiayaan Dalam Negeri 243 196 n.a. n.a. 2. Pembiayaan Luar Negeri -17 -21 n.a. n.a. Asumsi Ekonomi Utama Pertumbuhan ekonomi (persen) 5,7 6,0 5,3 5,3 IHK (yoy, persen) 8,4 5,5 6,8 6,2 Kurs tukar (Rp/AS$) 10.542 10.500 11.800 12.000 Harga minyak (AS$/barel) 106 105 103 105 Produksi minyak (ribu barel/hari) 825 870 n.a. n.a. Catatan: *Untuk 2013, tidak termasuk biaya subsidi BBM yang terjadi menjelang akhir tahun yang belum dibayar oleh Pemerintah Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Bila tidak ada revisi Dengan menyertakan asumsi-asumsi makro Bank Dunia untuk tahun 2014, tren-tren yang APBN, defisit tahun lalu, serta perkiraan pengaruh larangan ekspor mineral terhadap pendapatan (lihat Bagian 2014 diproyeksikan B.1), Bank Dunia memproyeksikan defisit fiskal sebesar 2,6 persen dari PDB untuk tahun mencapai 2,6 persen 2014 (Tabel 5), lebih dari proyeksi defisit sebesar 2,1 persen dari PDB pada IEQ edisi bulan dari PDB Desember lalu. Revisi itu terutama disebabkan oleh revisi turun dalam perkiraan pungutan pajak. Proyeksi pungutan pajak yang lebih rendah memiliki dua alasan: perkiraan perlambatan pungutan PPN akibat turunnya pertumbuhan impor dan konsumsi rumah tangga, dan penurunan pungutan pajak pendapatan badan akibat larangan ekspor mineral (lihat Bagian B.1). Selain penurunan dalam pengumpulan pendapatan, Bank Dunia telah merevisi naik proyeksi belanja fiskalnya sebesar 1,4 persen, terutama akibat naiknya perkiraan belanja subsidi energi mengikuti kurs tukar yang berlaku pada kuartal pertama hingga tanggal 7 Maret (lihat Kotak 3 untuk pembahasan lebih lanjut tentang belanja subsidi BBM dan opsi reformasi). M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 15 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Pemerintah Pemerintah telah Gambar 21: Subsidi BBM terus menyebabkan APBN mempertimbangkan mengumumkan bahwa sasaran- tertekan oleh harga pasar BBM dalam Rupiah melakukan revisi sasaran yang ditetapkan pada (ribu Rp per liter) APBN 2014 untuk APBN 2014 tampaknya akan Subsidy gap (IDR/liter) IDR/USD menyesuaikan asumsi- sulit dicapai dan telah Unsubsidized petrol price (Pertamax 88, IDR/liter) asumsi ekonomi makro mengeluarkan asumsi-asumsi Subsidized petrol price (IDR/liter) dengan berbagai ekonomi makro yang lebih 12 perkembangan terakhir realistis tahun 2014 (Tabel 6).1 Pemerintah tampaknya akan 10 merevisi APBN 2014 8 (kemungkinan pada bulan Mei), 6 yang kemungkinan akan menyertakan penurunan sasaran 4 pendapatan, sejalan dengan 2 kinerja pendapatan 2013 yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan, dan 0 mengingat bahwa belum ada Feb‐06 Feb‐08 Feb‐10 Feb‐12 Feb‐14 pengumuman perubahan Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia kebijakan demi meningkatkan pendapatan pada tahun 2014. Selain itu, proyeksi produksi minyak akan diturunkan dari 870 ke 800-830 ribu barel per hari (barrels per day, bpd), yang membawa tambahan risiko fiskal, walau risiko ini tampaknya akan sedikit diimbangi oleh pengaruh dari kurs tukar. Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa penurunan produksi minyak sebesar 10.000 bpd akan menurunkan pendapatan sebesar Rp 3 triliun, sebagian besar melalui pendapatan bukan pajak (sekitar Rp 2,4 triliun), dengan asumsi semua hal lain tetap konstan. Dengan berlanjutnya tekanan fiskal yang signifikan dari subsidi BBM, yang diperkuat dengan depresiasi Rupiah pada paruh kedua tahun 2013 yang memperlebar selisih antara harga subsidi dan harga pasar (Gambar 21), APBN-P dapat membuka peluang bagi reformasi subsidi BBM, melanjutkan kenaikan harga tahun lalu. Pemerintah sedang menjajaki kemungkinan pelaksanaan subsidi BBM tetap per liter.2 Salah satu opsi tambahan adalah menetapkan batas nominal jumlah biaya subsidi, yang akan meningkatkan kemampuan Pemerintah dalam mengendalikan belanja; Kotak 3 mengkaji opsi-opsi ini. Kenaikan tarif listrik bagi kelompok industri dan usaha besar lanjutantelah memperoleh persetujuan DPR, yang tampaknya akan mulai berlaku pada bulan Mei.3 Pembiayaan bruto Hingga tanggal 10 Maret 2014, 44,5 persen dari kebutuhan pembiayaan bruto untuk tahun pada 2014 telah 2014 (Rp 370,4 triliun) telah terpenuhi, terbantu oleh penerbitan sekuritas yang lebih banyak dilakukan pada awal pada awal tahun, termasuk penerbitan sekuritas senilai 4 juta dolar AS bagi ekonomi tahun berkembang di Asia pada bulan Januari. Tabel 6: Pemerintah mengeluarkan asumsi ekonomi makro 2014 yang tidak terlalu optimis IEQ IEQ Revisi prospek dari kuartal 4 kuartal 1 APBN Kemenkeu 2013 2014 Pertumbuhan ekonomi (persen) 6,0 5,8 - 6,0 5,3 5,3 IHK (yoy, persen) 5,5 5,4 - 5,7 6,8 6,2 Kurs tukar (Rp/AS$) 10.500 11.500 - 12.000 11.800 12.000 Harga minyak mentah (AS$/barel) 105 103 - 105 103 105 Produksi minyak (ribu barel/hari) 870 800 - 830 n.a. n.a. Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan 1http://www.kemenkeu.go.id/Berita/pemerintah-kaji-kemungkinan-revisi-apbn-2014 2 http://www.kemenkeu.go.id/en/Berita/fixed-subsidy-alternative-energy-reform 3 http://www.kemenkeu.go.id/Berita/kenaikan-ttl-hemat-anggaran-subsidi-hingga-rp8-triliun M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 16 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 3: Mengikuti kenaikan harga BBM subsidi pada tahun lalu, reformasi subsidi BBM lanjutan masih dibutuhkan Tingginya belanja subsidi BBM yang melebihi APBN-P pada tahun 2013 menyoroti kebutuhan akan reformasi lanjutan dan berkelanjutan untuk menurunkan ketidakpastian anggaran serta membatasi belanja anggaran, selain untuk mengurangi opportunity costs belanja dengan sasaran yang buruk dan bersifat distortif tersebut. Walau dengan peningkatan harga bensin dan solar bersubsidi masing-masing sebesar 44 persen dan 22 persen pada bulan Juni 2013, belanja subsidi BBM kembali melampaui sasaran APBN-P akibat depresiasi Rupiah yang kemudian terjadi, yang mewakili hampir seperlima dari belanja pemerintah pusat atau 2,2 persen dari PDB. Pengalaman ini menunjukkan bahwa penyesuaian harga secara ad-hoc tidak dapat melindungi belanja subsidi BBM dari volatilitas harga minyak dan kurs tukar Rupiah, serta tidak menjamin penghematan fiskal yang berkelanjutan. Dengan demikian, belanja subsidi BBM masih terus membawa risiko yang signifikan terhadap posisi fiskal pada tahun 2014, yang tetap sangat peka terhadap biaya subsidi BBM dengan kurs tukar dan harga minyak mentah. Proyeksi dasar (baseline) Bank Dunia untuk belanja subsidi BBM pada tahun 2014 mengasumsikan rata-rata kurs tukar dolar AS/Rupiah sebesar 12.000 dan harga minyak mentah Indonesia sebesar 105 dolar AS per barel. Sehingga, tanpa reformasi, defisit fiskal tahun 2014 diproyeksikan akan mencapai 2,6 persen dari PDB. Jika tunggakan pembayaran subsidi BBM tahun 2013 akan dibawa ke tahun 2014 tanpa dibawa perlakuan serupa ke tahun 2015, maka defisit fiskal dapat meningkat hingga 3,0 persen. Sebagai gambaran, di bawah ini dipaparkan simulasi dua skenario reformasi untuk menelaah potensi dampak terhadap defisit fiskal dan penghematan yang dapat dialokasikan bagi prioritas pembangunan yang sangat dibutuhkan, seperti infrastruktur dan jaminan sosial. Dua skenario itu diasumsikan akan mulai berlaku pada tanggal 1 Juli 2014: Skenario I: diasumsikan peningkatan nominal Rupiah per liter yang sama seperti pada bulan Juni 2013, sebesar Rp 2.000 per liter untuk bensin dan Rp 1.000 per liter untuk solar. Bila semua faktor lain diasumsikan sama, kenaikan ini akan menurunkan defisit fiskal ke 2,1 persen dari PDB, menghasilkan penghematan fiskal sebesar Rp 45 triliun pada tahun 2014, dan Rp 97 triliun pada tahun 2015. Seperti dibahas sebelumnya, penyesuaian harga satu kali ini masih mengekspos APBN terhadap volatilitas harga energi internasional dan kurs tukar di kemudian hari. Skenario II: diasumsikan peningkatan harga bensin dan solar bersubsidi dengan menutup setengah selisih antara harga bersubsidi yang berlaku sekarang dan harga pasar/keekonomian. Hal ini akan berarti peningkatan harga nominal sebesar 30 persen untuk bensin dan 50 persen untuk solar. Pada skenario ini, bila semua faktor lain tetap sama, proyeksi defisit fiskal untuk tahun 2014 adalah 1,9 persen dari PDB dan perkiraan penghematan fiskal mencapai Rp 69 triliun, yang meningkat menjadi Rp 144 triliun pada tahun 2015. Tabel 7: Dibutuhkan reformasi subsidi BBM lanjutan untuk meringankan tekanan fiskal Proyeksi defisit fiskal Perkiraan penghematan (persen dari PDB) fiskal (triliun Rp) 2014 2014 2015 APBN 2014 1,7 n.a n.a Dasar (baseline)/tanpa reformasi 2,6 n.a n.a Skenario I: Meningkatkan harga bensin dan solar bersubsidi 2,1 45,2 97,2 masing-masing sebesar Rp 2.000 dan Rp 1.000 per Juni 2013 Skenario II: Meningkatkan harga bensin dan solar bersubsidi 1,9 68,8 144,2 sebesar setengah dari selisih antara harga bersubsidi dengan harga pasar Selain skenario indikatif di atas, untuk menurunkan besaran dan ketidakpastian subsidi BBM, kebijakan harga bahan bakar alternatif haruslah sederhana, transparan, dan mudah diperkirakan, sehingga masyarakat pun lebih bisa memahami dan penerapannya menjadi lebih mudah. Sebagian besar pendekatan telah diterapkan di berbagai negara. Walaupun masing-masing pendekatan itu memiliki keunggulan maupun kelemahan, terdapat dua opsi realistis yang potensial bagi konteks Indonesia, yang melibatkan pergeseran dari penyesuaian harga yang cenderung berdasarkan keinginan penentu kebijakan, ke arah penyesuaian harga berdasarkan aturan (rule- based):  Opsi 1: Penggunaan indeks (dengan batasan). Secara berkala menyesuaikan harga menurut aturan yang telah disepakati terlebih dahulu. Dengan opsi ini, harga-harga dapat bergerak naik maupun turun. Harga-harga dalam negeri ditinjau secara berkala (per bulan, per kuartal, dst). Aturan yang disepakati terlebih dahulu digunakan untuk menetapkan harga dalam negeri yang baru (atau tetap menjaganya), dengan rujukan kepada harga-harga dunia terkini.  Opsi 2: Batas belanja subsidi kuartalan. Umumkan batas subsidi per kuartal bagi tahun anggaran berikutnya, kemudian sesuaikan harga pada kuartal-kuartal berikutnya ketika sasaran terlampaui. Langkah ini akan membatasi kerentanan fiskal pada APBN. Batas kuartalan akan ditentukan berdasarkan pola konsumsi BBM yang diamati dan asumsi harga-harga yang diubah ke dalam Rupiah. Hal ini akan memungkinkan penyesuaian harga pada kuartal berikutnya berdasarkan jumlah belanja subsidi kuartal sebelumnya. Dasar pelaksanaannya akan bersifat transparan dan berdasarkan aturan, dengan tujuan mengurangi pengaruh pertimbangan politis terhadap proses penyesuaian harga. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 17 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 7. Dengan berkurangnya risiko-risiko eksternal, reformasi jangka panjang kembali menjadi prioritas Tekanan eksternal Proyeksi dasar (baseline) Gambar 22: Kebutuhan pembiayaan eksternal bruto dan telah berkurang untuk Bank Dunia adalah risiko-risiko likuiditas masih tetap tinggi saat ini, namun dapat berlanjutnya penyesuaian (miliar dolar AS (LHS), persen (RHS)) meningkat kembali… neraca eksternal Indonesia miliar Short-term debt by remaining maturity Persen dan penurunan lanjutan AS$ (LHS) Current account (C/A) deficit, 4 qtr. yang relatif kecil pada 90 rolling sum (LHS) 100 pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ratio of C/A deficit plus short-term Kasus dasar (base case) ini 70 debt, to reserves 80 diproyeksikan dengan asumsi terus tersedianya 50 60 pembiayaan eksternal yang memadai, sesuai dengan 30 40 kebutuhan pembiayaan bruto luar negeri Indonesia yang signifikan, yang timbul 10 20 tidak hanya akibat defisit neraca berjalan (diperkirakan -10 0 mencapai 24,4 miliar dolar Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 AS pada tahun 2014), namun juga pembayaran Sumber: CEIC, perhitungan staf Bank Dunia kembali utang eksternal yang cukup besar (dengan utang eksternal yang akan jatuh tempo dalam waktu tidak lebih dari satu tahun sejumlah 56,7 miliar dolar AS pada bulan Desember, menurut BI) (Gambar 22). Sentimen investor telah meningkat belakangan ini, seperti tampak di atas, namun volatilitas dalam kondisi pembiayaan eksternal tetap berisiko kembali meningkat, terutama dengan penyusutan stimulus dari Bank Sentral AS. Selain itu, perkiraan peningkatan pertumbuhan para mitra dagang Indonesia akan mendukung ekspor, namun masih terdapat risiko adanya permintaan eksternal yang lebih lemah dari proyeksi, terutama dalam kaitannya dengan dampak perdagangan dari penyeimbangan kembali ekonomi di Cina. Jalur lintasan ekonomi di Cina juga dapat berdampak lebih lanjut terhadap harga-harga komoditas, yang penurunannya akan membawa risiko penurunan eskternal lainnya. …sementara Hingga saat ini, sebagian besar penyesuaian ekonomi makro di Indonesia berasal dari ketidakpastian tetap investasi tetap, sementara konsumsi swasta terus bertumbuh dengan laju yang kuat. Terdapat membayangi jalur risiko bahwa pertumbuhan harga properti dan kredit yang lebih lambat (lihat Bagian 5) dan penyesuaian ekonomi lebih tingginya suku bunga riil akan membawa dampak yang lebih buruk terhadap investasi makro… dari yang diantisipasi, termasuk investasi gedung dan konstruksi (yang sejauh ini tetap kokoh), serta konsumsi. Depresiasi maupun volatilitas kurs tukar lebih lanjut juga dapat membebani ekonomi, dengan adanya peningkatan harga dalam negeri dari barang-barang impor (baik barang investasi maupun konsumsi), biaya Rupiah dari utang dalam valas pada neraca sektor publik dan swasta, serta melalui beban fiskal dari subsidi BBM (lihat Kotak 3). Selain risiko-risiko penurunan ini, pengaruh dari pemilu nasional yang akan datang terhadap konsumsi, melalui belanja yang berkaitan dengan kampanye, dan terhadap investasi, melalui peningkatan ketidakpastian kebijakan, akan menjadi faktor risiko lain. ...dengan kerentanan Proyeksi kasus dasar (base case) menyertakan peningkatan yang cukup besar dalam neraca yang meningkat perdagangan Indonesia tahun 2014. Namun, skenario ini memiliki sejumlah risiko, yang cukup besar pada semuanya berkaitan dengan sektor ekspor. Di lain pihak, Bagian 4 menunjukkan bahwa sektor ekspor ekspor non-komoditas belum terpengaruh dengan kurs tukar yang lebih kompetitif, sehingga dapat memberikan kejutan positif bila tidak terhalang oleh kendala struktural. Faktor yang merintangi termasuk kebijakan-kebijakan terakhir yang membatasi ekspor mineral, kepemilikan asing yang membatasi, peningkatan pajak ekspor ,dan pembatasan impor, yang tampaknya akan menurunkan keuntungan eksportir, dan juga dapat membebani FDI di masa depan. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 18 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Stabilisasi ekonomi Sementara Indonesia melanjutkan penyesuaian ekonominya ke arah yang mendukung makro beberapa bulan pengamanan stabilitas ekonomi makro jangka pendek, umumnya didorong oleh kebijakan terakhir harus moneter dan dibantu oleh kurs tukar yang fleksibel, sejumlah perkembangan kebijakan diperkuat dengan perdagangan dan investasi terbaru telah meningkatkan ketidakpastian dan dapat merintangi kepastian kebijakan investasi, baik dalam maupun luar negeri, dan, karenanya, juga merintangi pembiayaan dan perdagangan dan pertumbuhan. Dengan meningkatnya pengaruh politis menjelang pemilu legislatif pada bulan investasi, serta April dan pemilihan presiden pada bulan Juli, pengurangan ketidakpastian kebijakan akan reformasi fiskal menjadi hal yang sangat penting, dan sedapat mungkin meneruskan upaya berkelanjutan tambahan dalam memperkuat ketahanan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan berkelanjutan di Indonesia (seperti menjadi fokus pada Bagian C). Namun, perkembangan kebijakan dan peraturan terbaru, termasuk larangan ekspor sebagian mineral (seperti dibahas berikutnya pada Bagian B.1), serta UU perdagangan dan kepemilikan asing yang baru, dan penundaan pelaksanaan revisi daftar negatif investasi, membawa pengaruh yang sebaliknya. Hal lain yang juga mendesak adalah peningkatan reformasi sektor fiskal untuk menjaga stabilitas dan meningkatkan penggunaan kebijakan fiskal sebagai suatu alat pengelolaan ekonomi makro, serta mendukung pertumbuhan jangka panjang. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 19 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia B. Beberapa perkembangan terkini perekonomian Indonesia 1. Mencermati larangan ekspor mineral mentah Indonesia Larangan ekspor Indonesia dianugerahi kekayaan mineral dan merupakan salah satu dari sepuluh negara mineral mentah yang dengan cadangan emas, bauksit, timah, nikel, dan tembaga yang terbesar di dunia. Nilai baru telah menjadi ekspor mineral Indonesia meningkat lebih dari tiga kali lipat dari 3 miliar dolar AS ke 11,2 fokus perhatian pada miliar dolar AS pada periode tahun 2001 dan 2013, didorong oleh tingginya harga kebijakan sektor komoditas secara historis dan peningkatan produksi (Gambar 23). Bagian ekspor mineral mineral penting mencapai 6,2 persen dari keseluruhan jumlah ekspor pada tahun 2013, dengan tembaga, Indonesia, dengan nikel, timah, besi, dan bauksit sebagai kontributor terbesar. Dari segi nilai, sekitar empat keprihatinan bahwa puluh persen dari jumlah ekspor mineral telah diolah; seluruh ekspor timah telah diolah, larangan tersebut sedangkan sebagian besar ekspor tembaga, nikel, dan bauksit belum diolah. Pelaksanaan dalam jangak pendek sebagian larangan ekspor dan pengenaan pajak ekspor yang baru terhadap ekspor mineral berdampak pada yang belum diolah telah memicu perdebatan tentang potensi dampak, dan implikasinya perdagangan dan terhadap keseluruhan sektor pertambangan dan prospek ekonomi yang lebih luas. Bagian ini penerimaan negara, menelaah dasar pemikiran kebijakan tersebut, perkiraan implikasi perdagangan dan serta terhadap penerimaan negara untuk jangka pendek dan menengah, serta opsi-opsi bagi pembahasan ekonomi jangka kebijakan pada masa yang akan datang. panjangnya M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 20 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 23: Ekspor mineral Indonesia meningkat secara Gambar 24: Hampir 40 persen ekspor mineral telah diolah signifikan pada dekade 2000an (Bagian jumlah ekspor 2013, persen, dan ekspor mineral diolah dan tidak (Nilai ekspor mineral dalam dolar AS, indeks, 2001 = 100) diolah, juta dolar AS) Copper Nickel Bauxite Unprocessed Mineral Exports 1600 5,000 2.5% Processed Mineral Exports 1400 4,000 2.0% Share of Mineral in Total Exports 1200 3,000 1.5% 1000 2,000 1.0% 800 1,000 0.5% 600 400 0 0.0% 200 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sumber: Database World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS); Sumber: Database WITS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia perkiraan staf Bank Dunia a. Latar belakang dan status terkini peraturan UU Pertambangan Undang-Undang (UU) tahun 2009 tentang pertambangan mineral dan batubara mewajibkan tahun 2009 seluruh pemegang Izin Usaha Pertambangan (IUP) dan Kontrak Karya (KK) untuk menetapkan kebijakan meningkatkan nilai tambah sumber daya mineral melalui pengolahan dan pemurnian di nilai tambah melalui dalam negeri dalam waktu lima tahun, yaitu mulai bulan Januari 2014. Lebih dari tiga tahun pengolahan dalam setelah UU Pertambangan itu, Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) negeri pada sektor dalam Permen ESDM No 7/2012 secara gamblang mewajibkan produsen untuk menyusun mineral, namun rencana kerja peleburan, penyesuaian batasan minimum pengolahan dan/atau pemurnian di peraturan pelaksana dalam negeri, dan melarang ekspor bijih-bijih mineral dalam waktu tiga bulan sejak pertamanya baru berlakunya peraturan tersebut (pada bulan Mei 2012). Tiga bulan kemudian, Permen ESDM diterbitkan tahun 2012 11/2012 menunda larangan ekspor bulan Mei 2012 tersebut hingga bulan Januari 2014. Selama masa itu, para produsen diperkenankan untuk melakukan ekspor mineral-mineral yang tidak diproses, namun pemegang IUP dipungut bea keluar sebesar 20 persen. Pemerintah Pada tanggal 11 Januari 2014, satu hari sebelum larangan ekspor mulai berlaku, Pemerintah menetapkan larangan mengumumkan peraturan baru, Permen ESDM No 1/2014, yang menguatkan larangan ekspor mineral mentah ekspor bijih nikel dan bauksit, namun tetap memperkenankan ekspor konsentrat mineral lain pada Januari 2014, yang telah diolah, termasuk tembaga, sampai tahun 2017. Namun, dalam perkembangan yang dengan merevisi pada tidak disangka-sangka, seluruh produsen, termasuk pemegang KK, kini harus membayar bea menit-menit terakhir keluar untuk ekspor mineral yang tidak dan telah diolah seperti tercantum dalam Peraturan mengecualikan Menteri Keuangan (Kemenkeu) No 6/2014. Besaran bea keluar itu, yang dimulai dari 20-25 sejumlah mineral dan persen dari pendapatan penjualan4 pada tahun 2014 dan semakin meningkat menjadi 60 menetapkan pajak persen pada tahun 2016, dinyatakan oleh Pemerintah sebagai instrumen fiskal untuk ekspor pada mineral- mendorong perusahaan-perusahaan membangun fasilitas peleburan (smelter), dan bukan mineral tersebut sebagai alat pungutan pendapatan5 (Tabel 8). Pada analisis skenario di bawah, berdasarkan analisis margin laba agregat dari perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan Indonesia6, diasumsikan bahwa setelah tingkat pajak mencapai 40 persen, perusahaan-perusahaan akan berhenti melakukan ekspor mineral-mineral yang tidak diolah karena tidak lagi menguntungkan. 4 Menafsirkan “% pajak yang berlaku” dalam peraturan Menkeu sebagai persentase pendapatan penjualan. Sumber: “The Export Ban as Finally Introduced – A Grand Compromise with much Residual Uncertainty”, Bill Sullivan, Coal Asia, Vol. 39 (23 Januari 2014) 5 Sumber: “Indonesia Defies Freeport on Export Tax”, Jakarta Post, 30 Januari 2014 (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/01/30/indonesia-defies-freeport-export-tax.html) 6 Sumber: “mineIndonesia 2013: 11th Annual Review of Trends in the Indonesian Mining Industry”, PriceWaterhouseCoopers Indonesia (PwC Indonesia) M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 21 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Masih terdapat Penerapan larangan itu mungkin masih dapat berubah dengan adanya tuntutan hukum yang ketidakpastian tengah dan mungkin terjadi, serta proses negosiasi. Sebagai contoh, Asosiasi Pengusaha peraturan yang besar Mineral Indonesia (APEMINDO) telah mengajukan tuntutan hukum kepada Mahkamah sejalan dengan Konstitusi Indonesia tentang pembedaan perlakuan untuk jenis mineral yang berlainan.7 Para tuntutan yang tengah pemegang KK menyatakan keberatan terhadap bea keluar yang baru, dengan mengatakan maupun yang mungkin bahwa mereka hanya bertanggung jawab atas pajak-pajak yang secara jelas tertera dalam diajukan oleh para kontrak-kontrak mereka, dan telah menyuarakan kemungkinan untuk maju ke lembaga produsen; sementara arbitrasi internasional.8 Debat yang terus berjalan atas keabsahan peraturan dan itu, ekspor mineral pelaksanaannya telah menunda penerbitan izin ekspor bagi mineral yang tidak dan sudah telah mengalami diolah, berikut laporan bahwa sejumlah produsen telah menunda ekspor sebagai protes dampak yang kuat terhadap bea keluar tersebut.9 Data perdagangan terakhir menunjukkan bahwa ekspor mineral (termasuk konsentrat tembaga) sangatlah rendah pada bulan Januari. Tabel 8: Peraturan yang berlaku menetapkan larangan parsial dengan peningkatan bea keluar terhadap ekspor mineral tidak diolah yang masih tersisa Bea keluar pada ekspor tidak diolah sebagai persen pendapatan Larangan penjualan Bea keluar pada ekspor Mineral ekspor tidak 2014 2015 2016 tidak diolah? diolah? S1 S2 S1 S2 S1 S2 Nikel Ya Tidak ada karena dilarang n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Bauksit Ya Tidak ada karena dilarang n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Tembaga Tidak Ya, untuk IUP dan KK 25 25 35 40 50 60 Bijih besi Tidak Ya, untuk IUP dan KK 20 25 35 40 50 60 Timbal Tidak Ya, untuk IUP dan KK 20 25 35 40 50 60 Seng Tidak Ya, untuk IUP dan KK 20 25 35 40 50 60 Tidak ada karena semua ekspor timah Timah n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Indonesia kini diolah Sumber: Peraturan Pemerintah Indonesia (Permen ESDM No 1/2014, PermenKeu No 6/2014); ringkasan staf Bank Dunia b. Menelaah dasar pemikiran dan asumsi di balik larangan ekspor mineral yang tidak diolah Dasar pemikiran Dasar pemikiran ekonomi yang diberikan oleh Pemerintah untuk pelarangan tersebut adalah kebijakan pelarangan bahwa larangan itu (dan juga bea keluar yang baru) akan mendorong kapasitas peleburan dan terletak pada sejumlah pengolahan dalam negeri, yang akan mengakibatkan peningkatan nilai tambah yang asumsi utama, signifikan dalam ekspor mineral.10 Peningkatan ekspor mineral bernilai tambah yang lebih sebagian yang tinggi akan mendorong kenaikan PDB, peningkatan neraca perdagangan, penambahan mungkin tidak pendapatan negara, dan penciptaan lapangan kerja. Sementara dapat dimengerti bahwa beralasan kuat tujuan akhir peningkatan pertumbuhan PDB dan penciptaan lapangan kerja jelas merupakan pusat agenda pembangunan negara manapun, penting untuk disoroti bahwa logika di atas bertumpu pada sejumlah asumsi utama. Larangan itu dapat Pertama, larangan itu akan mendorong investasi baru dalam peleburan dan pemurnian. mendorong beberapa Sejauh mana hal ini akan terjadi akan bergantung pada kelayakan ekonominya dan pangsa investasi baru dalam Indonesia dalam produksi bijih dunia, yang bervariasi lintas jenis mineral. Untuk tembaga, peleburan dan timbal, dan seng, penambahan investasi dalam pengolahan tampaknya tidak akan layak secara pemurnian domestik, ekonomi pada ,masa sekarang, mengingat rendahnya margin akibat kelebihan kapasitas kecuali nikel, karena peleburan dan pemurnian dunia. Selain itu, para pelaku usaha pengolahan di luar negeri akan kurangnya kelayakan lebih tidak terdorong untuk berinvestasi, karena mereka bisa mendapatkan pasokan bijih dari ekonomi dan kekuatan tempat lain (Indonesia memiliki pangsa kurang dari 2 persen dalam produksi tembaga, pasar dunia timbal, dan seng dunia pada tahun 2012 dan tidak memiliki cadangan besar untuk 7 “Indonesian Mining Group Challenges Ore Export Ban in Court”, Reuters, 22 Januari 2014 http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/22/indonesia-minerals-court-idUKL3N0KW3JB20140122 8 “More Pain for Miners as Government Demands Surety Bonds”, Jakarta Post, 7 Februari 2014 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/02/07/more-pain-miners-govt-demands-surety- bond.html 9 “Miners hold up exports due to higher duties”, Jakarta Post, 5 Februari 2014. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/02/04/miners-hold-exports-due-higher-duties.html 10 “Exporting Ore = Illegal”, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resource Press Statement, 25 Februari 2014, http://www.esdm.go.id/news-archives/mineral/48-mineral-en/6730-exporting-ore-illegal.html M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 22 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia komoditas-komoditas tersebut.11) Investasi dalam bijih besi dan bauksit tampaknya akan lebih layak, jika bijih mineral tersebut dapat diperoleh dengan murah, walau pemurnian bauksit bersifat padat input (terutama dalam hal energi), yang menempatkan Indonesia pada posisi yang kurang menguntungkan dibanding negara-negara lain seperti Cina. Jika pembangunan fasilitas peleburan (smelter) saja tidak layak, maka akan ada tekanan untuk pengucuran subsidi pemerintah – para produsen mineral telah mulai meminta dukungan pembiayaan dari pemerintah untuk membangun peleburan.12 Peleburan nikel tampaknya akan menjadi yang paling layak, karena Indonesia merupakan ekportir bijih nikel kedua terbesar di dunia13, dan pemasok bijih nikel berkualitas rendah terbesar bagi produsen Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) Cina14. Larangan terhadap ekspor bijih nikel dapat mendorong peningkatan investasi peleburan dari produsen NPI Cina di Indonesia pada jangka pendek, dengan catatan bahwa kebutuhan energi yang cukup besar bagi usaha peleburan dapat dipenuhi.15 Namun, pada jangka waktu menengah hingga panjang, investasi peleburan NPI yang baru di Indonesia mungkin akan menjadi terbatas, bila para produsen NPI Cina mendapatkan sumber bijih nikel berkualitas rendah lainnya, seperti Filipina16, dan para produsen baja tahan karat Cina menggunakan bahan pengganti NPI. Peningkatan Asumsi utama kedua adalah bahwa peningkatan peleburan dan pemurnian akan pengolahan mineral meningkatkan porsi penambahan nilai dalam ekspor mineral. Pada kenyataannya, pengolahan tidak selalu lantas mineral adalah padat input, terutama energi, sehingga penambahan nilai yang sesungguhnya meningkatkan nilai jauh lebih kecil dibanding perbedaan harga pasar antara bijih dan mineral yang telah diolah. tambah dalam negeri Sebagai contoh, proses hilir tembaga terdiri atas tiga langkah: mengkonsentrasikan bijih sedemikian besarnya tembaga yang ditambang untuk meningkatkan kandungan tembaga dari 3 ke 30 persen; dengan besarnya biaya meleburkan konsentrat ke blister, yang 99 persennya adalah tembaga; memurnikan blister ke input tembaga. Hampir 96 persen dari nilai pasar tembaga berasal dari langkah pertama, yaitu pengkonsentrasian, dan hal ini telah dilakukan pada situs-situs pertambangan di Indonesia, sementara hanya 4 persen dari nilai akhir dihasilkan oleh peleburan tembaga.17 Dampak keseluruhan Asumsi ketiga adalah bahwa peningkatan dalam ekspor mineral yang telah diolah akan dapat terhadap pendapatan mengimbangi penurunan ekspor bijih yang belum diolah (misalnya, akan ada peningkatan negara dan dari naiknya harga bijih yang tidak diolah karena penurunan pasokan dunia dari Indonesia). perdagangan bersih Naiknya ekspor bersih, pada gilirannya, akan mendorong kenaikan royalti dan pendapatan dapat menjadi negatif pajak mineral. Namun, seperti yang telah disampaikan sebelumnya, selain nikel, Indonesia akibat besarnya biaya tidak memiliki kekuatan pasar global untuk mendorong naik harga bijih mineral internasional impor pembangunan dengan menurunkan pasokannya. Selain itu, kebutuhan impor yang cukup besar untuk fasilitas peleburan baru membangun dan mengoperasikan fasilitas peleburan dapat mengimbangi kenaikan neraca perdagangan dari peningkatan ekspor. Kemudian, biaya konstruksi, serta beban depresiasi di kemudian hari, dari fasilitas peleburan tersebut akan menurunkan laba perusahaan serta, dengan demikian, pajak penghasilan (yang merupakan dua per tiga dari pendapatan negara pertambangan). Dampak keseluruhan terhadap pendapatan negara dan perdagangan bersih dapat menjadi negatif, seperti dibahas di bawah. 11 Survei Geologis Logam dan Mineral AS (2013) 12 Indonesian Government Must Offer Incentives to Build Smelters – PT Indosmelt, Reuters, 4 Februari 2014. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/indonesia-indosmelt- idUKL3N0L91D920140204 13 Ibid. 14 Komentar Macquarie Private Wealth Commodities dengan judul “The Indonesian ore ban – a summary of common questions and answers”, 14 Januari 2014 15 Sumber: “Opportunities and Challenges in Indonesia’s Mineral Mining Industry”, Presentasi oleh Asosiasi Pengusaha Mineral Indonesia (APEMINDO) pada Kementerian Perdagangan (18 Februari 2014) 16  Komentar Riset JP Morgan Global Commodities dengan judul “Nickel: Outlook improving, but it is not a one-way street” tanggal 7 Maret 2014 17 “The Economic Effects of Indonesia’s Mineral-Processing Requirements for Export” USAID, 2013. Selanjutnya disebut sebagai laporan Support for Economic Analysis Development in Indonesia (SEADI) M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 23 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Akan ada sejumlah Selain itu, walau peningkatan pengolahan dalam negeri dapat menciptakan sejumlah pekerjaan yang lebih pekerjaan lebih berkualitas pada sektor tersebut, penambahan jumlah pekerjaan baru baik, namun tampaknya akan terbatas, karena pengolahan merupakan kegiatan yang sangat padat modal, tampaknya peluang dan bukan padat karya. Penciptaan pekerjaan bersih (pekerjaan pengolahan baru dikurangi kerja di sektor tersebut hilangnya pekerjaan produksi mineral) akibat kebijakan ini tidaklah pasti, namun dapat tidak akan meningkat menjadi negatif. Para produsen mineral telah menyatakan bahwa penurunan dalam ekspor banyak mineral yang tidak diolah akibat larangan tersebut dapat berdampak pada hilangnya ribuan pekerjaan. c. Memperkirakan dampak fiskal dan perdagangan jangka pendek ke menengah Kebijakan de jure yang Bagian ini menampilkan temuan-temuan yang berasal dari analisis Bank Dunia akan dampak ada tampaknya akan larangan ekspor dan bea keluar mineral mentah selama periode tahun 2014-17. Secara cenderung berdampak keseluruhan, Bank Dunia memperkirakan bahwa akan terdapat dampak negatif terhadap negatif pada jangka perdagangan bersih sebesar 12,5 miliar dolar AS dan kerugian pendapatan negara sebesar 6,5 pendek dan menengah miliar dolar AS dari kebijakan yang kini berlaku (pada waktu laporan disusun, secara de jure) terhadap pendapatan selama periode tersebut. Dampak negatif itu didorong oleh peningkatan impor peralatan negara dan neraca peleburan/pemurnian dan turunnya ekspor mineral mentah, yang lebih besar dibanding perdagangan potensi peningkatan ekspor mineral yang telah diolah. Indonesia Sebuah model Sebuah model perdagangan dan pendapatan negara yang sederhana digunakan untuk perdagangan dan menganalisis dampak, hingga tahun 2017, dari kebijakan yang berlaku terhadap pendapatan pendapatan yang negara dan neraca perdagangan.18 Model ini mencakup seluruh mineral yang diatur oleh sederhana disusun peraturan, namun, dengan besarnya kapasitas dan kenyataan bahwa ekspor timah sudah 100 untuk menganalisis persen diolah, hasil pemodelan lebih dipengaruhi oleh tembaga, nikel, bauksit, dan besi. Pada dampak perdagangan model tersebut, pertumbuhan dasar (baseline) dalam ekspor mineral yang telah dan belum dan fiskal jangka diolah berkaitan dengan peningkatan permintaan impor Cina bagi berbagai komoditas pendek (karena Cina adalah pembeli utama ekspor mineral dari Indonesia) serta perkiraan harga komoditas oleh kelompok peneliti komoditas global Bank Dunia. Perubahan dalam ekspor mineral belum dan telah diolah (dan selanjutnya pendapatan), dibanding dengan baseline, didorong oleh asumsi-asumsi perubahan kapasitas pelebur (smelter) untuk mengolah tambahan mineral serta dampak pelarangan ekspor dan bea keluar mineral yang belum diolah. Tabel 9 meringkas alur dampak pada model itu. Dalam hal dampak neraca pembayaran secara keseluruhan, perlu dicatat bahwa analisis ini tidak menyertakan dampak terhadap repatriasi laba (melalui garis pendapatan dari saldo neraca berjalan) atau dampak langsung terhadap aliran investasi asing langsung (FDI), maupun dampak tidak langsung terhadap aliran modal yang lebih luas. Analisis itu juga tidak menyertakan dampak potensial terhadap pajak-pajak tidak langsung, seperti PPN, dalam kasus penurunan kegiatan ekonomi atau pengaruh fiskal tidak langsung lainnya melalui biaya modal. Selain itu, analisis itu merupakan analisis ekuilibrium parsial dengan penyertaan pengaruh putaran kedua yang terbatas. 18Model pendapatan bagi bea dan pajak dan royalti ekspor dikembangkan dari model perdagangan sebagai pendapatan terdahulu (atau tambahan pendapatan yang diperoleh) secara sederhana adalah fungsi dari proyeksi perubahan dalam nilai ekspor mineral dikalikan bea ekspor/pajak/tingkat royalti. Pungutan pajak badan adalah fungsi laba perusahaan, sehingga perubahan dalam pendapatan pajak penghasilan badan didorong oleh perubahan dalam pendapatan penjualan, biaya produksi, dan beban depresiasi. Karena tidak adanya informasi yang terperinci tentang neraca perusahaan-perusahaan utama, maka digunakan perhitungan dengan dasar angka profitabilitas sektor mineral secara agregat. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 24 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 9: Kedua alur ekspor dan impor dimodelkan, demikian dengan pajak/bea keluar, royalti, dan pajak pendapatan Perkiraan kontribusi ke Alur perdagangan Perkiraan dampak pelarangan terhadap jalur perdagangan bersih Ekspor mineral tidak diolah Menurun Negatif Ekspor mineral telah diolah Meningkat sejalan kapasitas pengolahan baru. Positif Impor barang modal setengah jadi untuk membangun dan mengoperasikan fasilitas Meningkat sejalan dengan investasi pelebur baru. Negatif pelebur (smelter) tambahan Perkiraan kontribusi ke Alur fiskal Perkiraan dampak pelarangan terhadap jalur pendapatan Bea keluar (20 persen pendapatan penjualan) Menurun sejalan dengan penurunan ekspor yang dari ekspor yang tidak diolah oleh pemegang Negatif tidak diproses. IUP Positif pada tingkat pajak Pajak ekspor (20-25 persen meningkat ke 60 Meningkat (sebagai pajak baru yang mengikuti rendah; persen pendapatan penjualan) dari ekspor larangan); jumlah yang dipungut bergantung pada Negatif pada tingkat pajak yang tidak diolah oleh IUP dan KK ekspor yang tidak diolah. tinggi Menurun sejalan dengan penurunan ekspor yang Royalti dari ekspor mineral tidak diolah Negatif tidak diolah. Meningkat sejalan dengan peningkatan ekspor Royalti dari ekspor mineral yang diolah Positif yang diolah. Menurun sejalan dengan penurunan laba dan Pajak penghasilan badan peningkatan biaya depresiasi yang berkaitan Negatif dengan peleburan. Pendorong utama Tambahan kapasitas pengolahan yang diasumsikan akan terdorong oleh larangan ekspor capaian-capaian mineral yang tidak diolah selama periode tahun 2014-17 dari investasi peleburan baru pada tersebut adalah jumlah model perdagangan diperlihatkan pada Tabel 10. Jumlah investasi peleburan baru untuk pelebur yang nikel, bauksit, dan besi tersebut mengacu pada fasilitas-fasilitas yang dianggap layak dan diasumsikan akan siap realistik oleh penelitian dari Support for Economic Analysis Development in Indonesia (SEADI)19 pada periode ini, dan yang telah didanai serta telah atau akan segera mulai dibangun.20 Penilaian yang kapasitasnya, dan dilakukan baru-baru ini terhadap ESDM menunjukkan bahwa 63 fasilitas peleburan dan belanja modal yang pemurnian baru, termasuk 40 untuk nikel, akan beroperasi pada tahun 2017. Berdasarkan dibutuhkan bukti-bukti yang tersedia, penilaian bahwa fasilitas-fasilitas peleburan tersebut akan mencapai tahapan produksi pada tahun 2017 tampaknya sangat optimistik, karena adanya tiga faktor: pertama, sejumlah investasi itu tampaknya tidak akan layak secara ekonomi dari sudut pandang perusahaan21; kedua, proyek-proyek peleburan secara rata-rata memiliki waktu tunggu (lead time) yang panjang, sekitar 3-5 tahun, mengingat adanya proses persetujuan, studi kelayakan, perizinan lingkungan, dan kemungkinan penundaan akibat pembebasan tanah22; dan selain itu, agar peleburan dapat beroperasi, mereka akan membutuhkan bahan masukan (input) pelengkap seperti ketersediaan tenaga listrik yang mungkin belum tersedia dalam kerangka waktu tersebut.23 19 SEADI ( 2013) 20 Proyek Weda Bay tahap I, yang dibiayai oleh perusahaan induk dari Prancis, Eramet, adalah suatu pengecualian. Sementara proyek itu diperkirakan akan mulai berproduksi pada tahun 2014, Eramet mengumumkan penundaan tanpa batas tertentu pada keputusan investasi akhir pada bulan Februari 2014, yang meningkatkan risiko bahwa proyek itu mungkin tidak selesai pada tahun 2017. Karenanya perkiraan yang disajikan dapat terpengaruh dengan risiko penurunan bahwa proyek Weda Bay tidak memulai produksi pada tahun 2017. 21 SEADI (2013) 22 “Smelter – Land Acquisition and Approval Process”, Presentasi oleh Julian Hill, Deloitte Indonesia pada Jakarta Foreign Correspondents Club, 12 Februari 2014 23 “Opportunities and Challenges in Indonesia’s Mineral Mining Industry”, Presentasi oleh Asosiasi Pengusaha Mineral Indonesia (APEMINDO) pada Kementerian Perdagangan, 18 Februari 2014 M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 25 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 10: Tidak ada pelebur tembaga baru yang diasumsikan siap beroperasi hingga akhir 2017 (daftar investasi peleburan nikel, bauksit, dan besi baru yang didorong oleh kebijakan yang disertakan di dalam analisis ini) Capex awal Kapasitas Output bijih Tahun pelebur untuk terproses dari Perusahaan peleburan Logam (miliar dolar operasional bijih mentah pelebur AS) (juta ton) (juta ton) Juni 2014 CGA PT Antam Bauksit 1,54 1,1 1,1 Juni 2014 FeNi PT Antam Nikel (FerroNickel) 3,30 3,0 3,0 Berbagai pelebur besi Juni 2014 Besi 4,88 5,5 5,5 (termasuk POSCO) Jan 2015 Harita Prima Abadi Bauksit 2,80 2,0 2,0 Jan 2016 PT Antam Nikel (Nickel Pig Iron) 0,50 0,9 0,9 Jan 2017 Weda Bay Tahap 1 Nikel 3,30 3,0 3,0 Sumber: SEADI (2013) diperbaharui dengan penilaian staf Bank Dunia tentang keterlambatan yang diperkirakan dalam proyek nikel Weda Bay tahap I Dengan adanya Analisis ini memperkirakan dampak dari kebijakan yang berlaku (de jure), dan dua skenario ketidakpastian seputar lainnya, terhadap kasus dasar (base case) tanpa adanya larangan impor mineral mentah dan pelaksanaan peraturan, tidak ada bea keluar: analisis dilakukan  Kebijakan yang Berlaku (Larangan Parsial dengan Bea Keluar): Skenario ini terhadap tiga skenario mencerminkan pelaksanaan peraturan kebijakan yang berlaku sekarang seperti diuraikan kebijakan pada Tabel 8.  Skenario Larangan Ekspor Sepenuhnya: Larangan ini adalah kebijakan asli yang sebelumnya akan dilaksanakan mulai dari bulan Januari 2014: larangan atas ekspor semua mineral yang belum diolah. Skenario ini akan menjelaskan keadaan de facto jika ekspor mineral signifikan yang tidak diolah, yang hingga kini belum dilarang, akan dihentikan akibat adanya perdebatan tentang peraturan—seperti yang kini sedang terjadi. Model ini mengasumsikan bahwa pada tahun 2016 bea keluar akan meningkat cukup tinggi sehingga perusahaan-perusahaan akan menghentikan ekspor mineral mentah karena tidak lagi menguntungkan. Oleh karena itu, skenario kebijakan de jure secara efektif akan menjadi larangan ekspor sepenuhnya mulai 2016 dan selanjutnya.  Skenario Larangan Parsial, Tanpa Bea Keluar: Ini adalah skenario kebijakan alternatif: larangan untuk nikel dan bauksit, tidak ada bea keluar untuk mineral-mineral lain. Dibanding skenario kebijakan de jure, skenario ini memberikan perkiraan pengaruh marginal dari bea keluar. Menurut semua Menurut ketiga skenario kebijakan, akan terdapat dampak negatif yang signifikan terhadap skenario, terdapat perdagangan bersih pada tahun 2014-2015 (Gambar 29). Dampak negatif terhadap dampak negatif yang perdagangan bersih dibanding skenario dasar (baseline) pada tahun 2014 diperkirakan signifikan ke neraca mencapai 5,3 miliar dolar AS menurut skenario kebijakan de jure, dan dapat mencapai 7 miliar perdagangan untuk dolar AS menurut skenario pelarangan sepenuhnya. Hal ini kemudian dibandingkan dengan 2014-15, dan proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan baseline Bank Dunia sekarang yang mencapai 24,4 miliar dolar dampaknya akan tetap AS atau 2,9 persen dari PDB untuk tahun 2014, yaitu kontribusi yang cukup besar terhadap negatif hingga 2017 kebutuhan belanja luar negeri pada saat pengetatan kondisi belanja luar negeri. Dampak pada skenario negatif terhadap perdagangan bersih pada tahun 2015 diperkirakan berkisar antara 1,3 miliar kebijakan yang berlaku dolar AS dan 4,1 miliar dolar AS, bergantung pada skenario. Menurut kebijakan de jure dan serta skenario skenario pelarangan penuh, dampak terhadap perdagangan bersih tetap negatif hingga tahun pelarangan 2017, sementara menurut skenario pelarangan parsial tanpa adanya bea keluar, dampak sepenuhnya terhadap perdagangan bersih akan berubah menjadi positif pada tahun 2017. Dampak negatif Dampak negatif terhadap perdagangan bersih sebagian didorong oleh penurunan perdagangan didorong pendapatan ekspor, dengan turunnya pendapatan ekspor mineral mentah terkait dengan oleh turunnya ekspor larangan tersebut, atau turunnya produksi akibat bea keluar yang mengimbangi pendapatan mineral mentah yang dari tambahan ekspor mineral yang diolah hingga tahun 2017 menurut skenario kebijakan mengimbangi yang berlaku (de jure) dan skenario pelarangan ekspor sepenuhnya (Gambar 25). Dampak peningkatan ekspor terhadap ekspor hanya berubah menjadi positif pada ketiga skenario pada tahun 2017 ketika mineral yang diolah… kapasitas peleburan nikel tambahan dijadwalkan akan siap dengan proyek Weda Bay. Jika M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 26 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Weda Bay tidak mulai berproduksi pada tahun itu, maka dampak skenario kebijakan berjalan atau skenario pelarangan sepenuhnya terhadap ekspor diproyeksikan akan tetap negatif. … dan biaya impor Di sisi impor, untuk ketiga skenario diperkirakan bahwa peningkatan impor akan mencapai yang sangat tinggi 3,8 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2014, dan akan tetap bertahan di atas 2 miliar dolar AS hingga terkait dengan tahun 2017 (Gambar 27) karena impor barang-barang modal setengah jadi yang digunakan investasi dan operasi untuk membangun dan mengoperasikan kapasitas peleburan tambahan untuk nikel, bauksit, peleburan yang padat dan besi. Pembangunan dan pengoperasian peleburan sangat padat modal dan berbiaya modal tinggi: salah satu usulan peleburan feronikel dengan kapasitas pemrosesan 3 juta ton nikel (10 persen dari produksi bijih nikel Indonesia saat ini) memiliki biaya modal sebesar 3,3 miliar dolar AS dengan biaya operasi tahunan sebesar 300 juta dolar AS.24 Gambar 25: Perkiraan menunjukkan dampak negatif yang Gambar 26:...dan juga dampak negatif terhadap pendapatan signifikan ke neraca perdagangan pada 2014-15 untuk semua negara, yang meningkat sejalan dengan waktu skenario… (perkiraan dampak terhadap pendapatan negara, miliar dolar AS) (perkiraan dampak terhadap perdagangan bersih, miliar dolar AS) 10 De Jure Policy (Partial Ban + Export Tax) 4 De Jure Policy (Partial Ban + Export Tax) 8 Full Ban Scenario Full Ban Scenario 6 Partial Ban No Export Tax Scenario Partial Ban No Export Tax Scenario 2 4 2.5 2 0 0 0.0 -2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 -0.9 -4 -3.0 -3.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -3.3 -1.4 -1.4 -4.4 -4.1 -2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -6 -5.3 -2.2 -2.2 -8 -7.0 -10 -4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Gambar 27: Dampak negatif ke perdagangan didorong Gambar 28: ...dan peningkatan impor yang signifikan penurunan ekspor, terutama pada tahun 2014… hingga 2017 akibat investasi peleburan yang padat modal (perkiraan dampak pada ekspor, miliar dolar AS) (perkiraan dampak ke perdagangan bersih lewat impor, miliar dolar AS) 20 De Jure Policy (Partial Ban + Export Tax) 20 De Jure Policy (Partial Ban + Export Tax) Full Ban Scenario Full Ban Scenario 15 15 Partial Ban No Export Tax Scenario Partial Ban No Export Tax Scenario 10 10 5.1 5 5 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 0 0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -2.9 -2.4 -2.6 -5 -3.2 -5 -3.8 -10 -10 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: Perhitungan staf Bank Dunia 24 SEADI (2013) M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 27 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Dampak negatif ke Penurunan ekspor dan biaya pembangunan peleburan mendorong dampak negatif yang ekspor dan biaya signifikan terhadap pendapatan pemerintah. Turunnya pendapatan dibanding baseline pada pembangunan tahun 2014 diperkirakan berkisar antara 0,4 miliar dolar AS pada skenario kebijakan yang peleburan memberikan berlaku (de jure) dan 1,2 miliar dolar AS pada skenario pelarangan sepenuhnya. Penurunan itu pengaruh negatif yang memberi tambahan tekanan terhadap proyeksi defisit fiskal sekitar 22 miliar dolar AS pada signifikan terhadap tahun 2014, yang telah rentan terhadap perlambatan pertumbuhan pendapatan dan pendapatan negara peningkatan belanja subsidi akibat depresiasi Rupiah. Dampak negatif dari seluruh skenario jangka pendek ke tersebut semakin meningkat sejalan dengan waktu hingga tahun 2017 (Gambar 25). Dua per menengah tiga dari perkiraan penurunan pendapatan disebabkan oleh lebih rendahnya pajak penghasilan badan karena industri membukukan laba negatif sebelum pajak akibat turunnya pendapatan ekspor serta kenaikan biaya operasi dan beban depresiasi yang berkaitan dengan usaha peleburan. d. Implikasi kebijakan dan perkembangan ke depan Menurut skenario Di dalam skenario-skenario yang dipertimbangkan, pelarangan sepenuhnya pada seluruh dimana sebagian ekspor mineral yang belum diolah menghasilkan perkiraan dampak yang paling negatif ekspor mineral mentah terhadap perdagangan bersih dan pendapatan negara pada jangka pendek ke menengah. dilarang, kebijakan itu Pelarangan sebagian untuk nikel dan bauksit (mineral-mineral yang akan menerima tambahan tampaknya akan kapasitas peleburan) dengan bea keluar terhadap mineral-mineral lain, sesuai kebijakan yang menambah tekanan berlaku, diperkirakan akan berdampak negatif yang lebih rendah dibanding perlarangan terhadap neraca fiskal penuh pada awalnya, namun ketika bea keluar telah menjadi penghalang (yang tampaknya dan perdagangan dimulai pada tarif pajak 40 persen ke atas) maka kebijakan yang berlaku akan secara efektif Indonesia… menjadi pelarangan sepenuhnya. Penghapusan bea keluar akan menurunkan dampak negatif, namun, bahkan pelarangan parsial tanpa bea keluar pun tampaknya akan berdampak negatif terhadap pendapatan dan perdagangan bersih, dibanding dengan kasus dasar (base case), pada jangka pendek dan menengah. Dampak-dampak negatif itu akan timbul ketika masih banyak investor yang berfokus pada neraca perdagangan Indonesia dan kinerja pendapatan negara yang telah melemah. ...opsi kebijakan Kenyataan bahwa pelarangan sebagian ekspor, tanpa menyertakan bea keluar, menghasilkan lainnya harus dampak fiskal dan perdagangan bersih yang paling tidak negatif dari skenario-skenario yang dievaluasi, dengan dipertimbangkan tidak berarti bahwa kebijakan itu adalah kebijakan publik yang baik. menimbang dampak Kebijakan-kebijakan lain, seperti investasi infrastruktur publik pada energi, mungkin akan ekonomi yang lebih lebih efektif dalam meningkatkan pengolahan domestik dengan biaya efisiensi yang lebih luas, pengaruh putaran rendah. Karena kemungkinan dampak negatif larangan itu terhadap pendapatan negara dan kedua, serta perdagangan akan cukup signifikan, maka patut dilakukan evaluasi terhadap sejumlah opsi peningkatan dan kebijakan yang lebih luas. Evaluasi mendalam terhadap serangkaian opsi kebijakan yang lebih penurunan efisiensi luas membutuhkan analisis yang lebih mendalam dan konsultasi dengan seluruh pemangku dan kesejahteraan kepentingan, termasuk penilaian dampak ekonomi yang lebih luas dan saling berhubungan secara keseluruhan (terhadap neraca eksternal yang lebih luas melalui pengaruh kurs tukar dan investasi, terhadap produksi (output) dan lapangan kerja, serta terhadap pengaruh neraca perusahaan akibat potensi pembiayaan utang dan profitabilitas); pembedaan antara mineral dan kelayakan ekonomi pengolahan yang berbeda antar mineral; penyertaan pengaruh putaran kedua terhadap keputusan investasi dan produksi; serta analisis dampak efisiensi dan kesejahteraan bersih secara keseluruhan melalui analisis ekuilibrium umum. Walau tidak tercakup dalam laporan ini, dampak negatif terhadap lingkungan penggalian dan pengolahan mineral juga patut diperhitungkan. Keseluruhan strategi Analisis lanjutan harus melibatkan suatu tinjauan terhadap keseluruhan strategi peningkatan pengembangan pengolahan mineral dalam negeri untuk dapat meningkatkan derajat penambahan nilai fasilitas pengolahan domestik. Strategi-strategi lain untuk meningkatkan nilai tambah dalam negeri, dan secara guna meningkatkan umum manfaat bagi masyarakat, dari sektor mineral harus dipertimbangkan. Seperti dibahas nilai tambah mineral pada Bagian b, strategi pengolahan mineral dalam negeri mungkin tidak akan terlalu berhasil akan memetik manfaat dalam konteks negara Indonesia. dari adanya tinjauan… M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 28 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia …yang mencermati Strategi penggunaan pembatasan ekspor dan pajak ekspor untuk meningkatkan pengolahan berbagai pengalaman mineral domestik telah dicoba di banyak negara, termasuk Australia dan Afrika Selatan25 internasional yang (Kotak 4). Namun penelaahan global yang baru-baru ini dilakukan oleh Hausman dkk. menekankan (200726) menekankan bahwa secara umum peningkatan pengolahan hilir bagi komoditas- pentingnya kehati- komoditas primer hanya akan membawa dampak terbatas dalam membantu suatu negara hatian untuk naik ke kelompok nilai tambah ekspor yang lebih tinggi. Didorong oleh penurunan biaya transportasi dan kenyataan bahwa pertambangan maupun pengolahan membutuhkan masukan (input) yang berbeda (dan bisa dibilang industri yang berbeda), pertambangan dan pengolahan mineral semakin terfragmentasi lintas negara. Selain itu, sejumlah negara telah berhasil memetik manfaat dari pertambangan komoditas primer tanpa melakukan penambahan nilai di dalam negeri, seperti ditunjukkan oleh Chili dengan tembaga. Kotak 4 memberikan lebih banyak rincian tentang pengalaman internasional. Analisis lebih lanjut Proses kebijakan yang mengarah kepada penetapan perubahan peraturan pada bulan Januari terhadap kebijakan 2014, dan tantangan hukum yang diakibatkannya, telah meningkatkan ketidakpastian dan pembangunan kebijakan pada sektor pertambangan. Hal ini semakin memperlemah iklim investasi perlu menghindari pertambangan Indonesia, yang sebelumnya sudah dipandang sebagai salah satu yang semakin besarnya terlemah di dunia.27 Dalam jangka waktu yang lebih panjang, hal itu dapat terbukti menjadi ketidakpastian rintangan terbesar dalam meningkatkan nilai tambah domestik, karena akan meningkatkan kebijakan pada sektor persepsi risiko investor saat investasi keseluruhan ekonomi melambat (seperti dibahas pada ini Bagian A), dengan latar belakang ketidakpastian kebijakan yang berkaitan dengan pemilu serta ketatnya pembiayaan dunia dan kondisi kredit dalam negeri. Analisis ekonomi tambahan yang diusulkan di atas dapat mendukung perkembangan kebijakan masa depan yang berdasarkan bukti bagi sektor tersebut. Namun, apapun usulan penyesuaian kebijakan lanjutan yang disampaikan, haruslah dilaksanakan sedemikian rupa sehingga tak ada peningkatan lebih lanjut terhadap ketidakpastian kebijakan. 25 “The Economic Impact of Export Restrictions on Raw Materials”, OECD (2010). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264096448-en 26 “Examining Beneficiation” Hausman, Klinger and Lawrence (2007), Center for International Development, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University 27 Indonesia berada pada peringkat paling bawah di antara 96 negara dan yurisdiksi produsen mineral utama pada Mining Policy Index, menurut para investor pertambangan global, berdasarkan edisi terakhir Fraser Institute Global Survey of Mining Investors (2013) M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 29 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kotak 4: Pengalaman internasional dalam mendorong pengolahan hilir mineral Kebijakan-kebijakan untuk mendorong pengolahan hilir bagi mineral semakin populer secara internasional dan telah mengambil berbagai bentuk, mulai dari pembatasan ekspor komoditas yang belum diolah pada satu bagian rantai nilai, hingga memberikan subsidi bagi industri hilir pengolahan dan pemurnian. Sebagai contoh, Afrika Selatan telah menetapkan pengendalian ekspor pada banyak mineral yang tidak diolah dan menetapkan program-program pembiayaan untuk mendorong penambahan nilai pada industri mineral. Sejumlah negara-negara lain di Afrika juga mengambil langkah serupa, seperti intan di Botswana, tembaga di Zambia, minyak di Ghana, serta gas alam dan batubara di Mozambik. Di Australia, insentif pajak dan subsidi energi pernah digunakan untuk mendukung industri hilir untuk baja. Sementara kebijakan mendorong keterkaitan ke depan (forward linkages) dalam sektor mineral telah menjadi populer, masih terdapat debat yang cukup sengit akan dampaknya, dengan tidak ditemukannya pengaruh positif dalam upaya mendorong pertambahan nilai dalam ekspor, seperti yang dikemukakan oleh suatu penelitian empiris lintas negara terbaru. Lintas rangkaian industri yang luas, penurunan biaya transportasi telah mendorong tren umum menuju fragmentasi global rantai pasokan. Tren ini juga terlihat pada sektor mineral, dengan hanya sejumlah kecil negara yang mengekspor sekaligus mineral tidak diolah dan produk telah diolah dari mineral yang sama (Gambar 29). Hausman dkk. (2007) menyelidiki keberhasilan kebijakan pengolahan hilir untuk mineral dalam meningkatkan penambahan nilai untuk ekspor, dengan menggunakan data perdagangan selama periode tahun 1975–2000 bagi seluruh negara-negara dan data input-output yang menguraikan keterkaitan rantai pasokan (supply-chain) untuk 241 produk. Hausman dkk menemukan bahwa peningkatan nilai tambah dalam komoditas primer tidak berkaitan dengan peningkatan porsi nilai tambah pada keranjang ekspor suatu negara pada jangka menengah ke panjang. Pertambangan dan pengolahan mineral merupakan industri yang berbeda, dan, dengan demikian, membutuhkan kemampuan yang berbeda pula; suatu negara dengan sektor pertambangan yang besar belum tentu dapat bergerak secara menguntungkan ke pengolahan hilir. Penelitian Hausman dkk. menyoroti bahwa pengembangan kemampuan pengolahan mineral di dalam suatu negara secara historis berkaitan dengan keunggulan komparatif dalam faktor-faktor lainnya (seperti energi) dibanding akses ke bijih mineral mentah. Faktor penentu utama akan lokasi peleburan atau pemurnian bagi banyak mineral berkisar pada kebutuhan faktor input pelengkap, seperti tenaga listrik berbiaya rendah, akses ke daratan, pengendalian polusi dan persyaratan peraturan lainnya, akses ke pembiayaan berbiaya rendah, ekonomi luar negeri seperti pasar bagi produk sampingan, serta berbagai hal lain, dan bukan hanya akses terhadap mineral yang berdekatan. Selain itu, terdapat kemungkinan untuk meningkatkan kinerja pertumbuhan dengan memfokuskan kepada pertambangan dan ekspor mineral yang tidak diolah serta menggunakan pendapatan terkait untuk berinvestasi guna meningkatkan produktivitas, dengan merujuk kepada pengalaman relevan dari Chili dalam mengelola industri tembaga. Chili adalah negara eksportir tembaga terbesar di dunia, yang menguasai lebih dari 40 persen jumlah ekspor tembaga dunia pada tahun 2012, serta memiliki cadangan tembaga terbesar di dunia. Sejak tahun 1980an, Chili tidak memfokuskan kepada pengolahan tembaga di dalam negeri dan mengekspor sebagian besar tembaganya sebagai konsentrat ke Cina dan India untuk peleburan lebih lanjut (Gambar 29); saat ini tembaga masih menjadi 50 persen dari ekspor Chili. Chili telah memfokuskan pada upaya memaksimalkan pendapatan dari ekspor konsentrat tembaga dan menggunakan pendapatan itu untuk membangun tenaga kerja yang kuat. Selama periode tersebut (1982-2012), yang mana terjadi perubahan politik dan kelembagaan yang cukup signifikan, pendapatan per kapita Chili meningkat drastis dari 5.000 dolar AS menjadi 16.000 dolar AS (dalam dolar AS riil tahun 2005), sementara tingkat kemiskinan menurun dari di atas 40 persen pada tahun 1990 ke 13 persen pada tahun 2013. Gambar 29: Penambangan terpusat di Chili, sementara pemurnian dan konsumsi terkonsentrasi di Cina dan India (produksi tembaga tahun 2013, pemurnian dan konsumsi, dalam juta ton metrik) 10 Copper Mine Production Refined Copper Production Copper Consumption 8 6 4 2 0 South East Asia Africa North China and Russia and Europe Middle East Japan and America and Pacific America India CIS South countries Korea Catatan: Asia Timur dan Pasifik kecuali Cina, Jepang dan Korea Selatan Sumber: Ditjen Mineral dan Batubara, Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, Indonesia, berdasar data dari Wood MacKenzie* Sumber: Lihat OECD (2010) ibid, SEADI (2013), “Fragmentation of Trade in Value Added Over Four Decades.” Johnson dan Noguera (2012), NBER Working Paper No. 18186., “Examining Beneficiation” Hausman, Klinger and Lawrence (2007), Center for International Development, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, SEADI (2013), US Geological Survey of Metals and Minerals (2013). Semua angka-angka dari World Development Indicators (WDI) untuk Chili. Catatan: * Presentasi dibuat oleh Ditjen Mineral dan Batubara pada acara sosialisasi Larangan Ekspor Mineral pada Kementerian Perdagangan dengan judul “Implementasi UU RI Nomor 4 Tahun 2009 dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kebijakan Hilirisasi Pertambangan Mineral Dan Batubara” (18 Februari 2014) M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 30 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia 2. Menerapkan pendekatan diagnostik risiko cepat untuk membangun ketahanan bencana dan iklim di kota-kota yang berkembang di Indonesia a. Peningkatan risiko perkotaan di kota-kota di Indonesia dan Asia Pasifik Wilayah Asia Pasifik Berbagai risiko bencana dan iklim di Asia Timur dan Pasifik akan terus meningkat seiring Timur mencatat laju dengan peningkatan populasi di kota-kota di wilayah tersebut. Sebagian besar pertumbuhan pertumbuhan perkotaan akan terjadi di negara-negara berkembang di wilayah ini, terutama di kota-kota urbanisasi dan risiko berukuran kecil dan sedang yang paling merasakan dampak dari urbanisasi. Sejak tahun 1980 dampak iklim dan hingga 2010, Asia mencatat penambahan lebih dari satu miliar jiwa penduduk di kawasan bencana terpesat di perkotaannya—lebih dari gabungan penambahan jumlah penduduk di belahan lain dunia— dunia dan satu miliar jiwa lagi diperkirakan akan tinggal di daerah perkotaan pada tahun 204028. Dengan memusatkan pada pengalaman Indonesia, Bagian ini menilik tantangan yang dihadapi dalam membangun ketahanan kawasan perkotaan. Banyak pusat kawasan Kota-kota secara tradisional merupakan mesin penggerak pembangunan, yang meleburkan perkotaan terletak di berbagai usaha, pengetahuan, teknologi, dan peluang tenaga kerja yang demikian beragam. daerah yang rawan Namun, banyak pusat-pusat kawasan perkotaan terletak di daerah rawan, yaitu daerah-daerah yang terletak di lokasi-lokasi surplus pertanian, seperti lahan gunung berapi yang subur, atau di daerah patahan lempeng bumi, atau di rute-rute perdagangan dan transportasi utama, yang sejajar dengan sistem pesisir pantai maupun sungai yang rawanakan banjir, gelombang badai, dan erosi pantai (Dilley dkk. 2005; lihat juga Hallegatte 2011). Peningkatan konsentrasi penduduk dan aset-aset di daerah-daerah berbahaya merupakan pendorong utama risiko bencana dan merupakan tantangan terbesar dalam pembangunan ketahanan di tingkat global, nasional,maupun daerah.29 Kota-kota di Indonesia Indonesia memimpin pesatnya laju urbanisasi di Asia Timur. Dengan laju urbanisasi yang termasuk di antara diperkirakan mencapai 4,1% antara tahun 2000 dan 2010, Indonesia mencatat laju yang lebih kota-kota yang paling tinggi dibanding dengan negara-negara tetangganya, seperti Cina (3,8%), India (3,1%),dan rawan terhadap risiko Thailand (2,8%). Kenyataan ini menempatkan Indonesia sebagai salah satu negara dengan bencana dan iklim... tingkat urbanisasi tertinggi di Asia, dengan 54% populasi tinggal di daerah perkotaan pada tahun 2010. Berbagai proyeksi urbanisasi menunjukkan bahwa angka itu akan meningkat menjadi 68% pada tahun 2025. Namun, Indonesia belum mencapai tingkat pengembalian ekonomi terhadap urbanisasi seperti halnya tingkat yang dinikmati oleh negara-negara lain. Untuk setiap peningkatan urbanisasi sebesar 1%, Indonesia hanya mencatat peningkatan pertumbuhan PDB sebesar 2%, sementara negara-negara tetangganya mencatat pertumbuhan PDB sebesar 6-10% untuk setiap peningkatan urbanisasi sebesar 1%.30 … menggarisbawahi Lebih dari 110 juta jiwa di sekitar 60 kota-kota di Indonesia rawan terhadap bencana alam, perlunya penyelarasan termasuk tsunami, gempa bumi, banjir, dan dampak-dampak perubahan iklim. Analisis pembangunan terbaru menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia amatlah rawan terhadap dampak pemanasan infrastruktur dengan iklim.31Secara khusus, bagian timur dan barat pulau Jawa yang padat dengan penduduk, risiko-risiko tersebut daerah pesisir dari hampir seluruh pulau Sumatera, bagian barat dan utara pulau Sulawesi, demi membangun dan pulau-pulau di tenggara Papua seluruhnya memiliki peringkat yang tinggi pada peta ketahanan bahaya iklim. Berbagai skenario menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan suhu, perubahan pola curah hujan, dan peningkatan permukaan air laut dapat menyebabkan penggenangan daerah- daerah pantai yang produktif dan peningkatan frekuensi bencana yang berkaitan dengan cuaca. Faktor-faktor tersebut akan mengakibatkan dampak yang semakin negatif terhadap pertanian, pasokan bahan pangan, dan air. Saat ini, diperkirakan bahwa hanya 20% dari pemerintah daerah yang telah mengalokasikan belanja yang memadai bagi pembangunan infrastruktur. Sementara itu, beberapa penelitian terakhir menekankan pada pentingnya 28Asian Development Bank, 2012, “Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2012: Green Urbanization in Asia”, special chapter, Mandaluyong City, Philippines 29Jha, Abhas K. and Zuzana Stanton-Geddes, eds. 2013,“Strong, Safe, and Resilient: A Strategic Policy Guide for Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific” in “Directions in Development”, Washington, DC: World Bank. 30World Bank, 2013,“City Planning Labs: A Concept for Strengthening City Planning Capacity in Indonesia” 31Yusuf, Anshori and H. Francisco, 2009,“Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia. Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia” M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 31 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia penyelarasan pembangunan infrastruktur dengan dampak bencana dan perubahan iklim demi membangun ketahanan di kota-kota berukuran sedang.32 Pengelompokan Walaupun urbanisasi dapat meningkatkan efisiensi dan mendorong pertumbuhan, mendorong pemusatan pengelompokan (aglomerasi) bisa juga mendorong terjadinya pemusatan aset-aset fisik yang aset-aset fisik yang dibangun secara cepat, seringkali tanpa disertai perencanaan dan pengendalian pemanfaatan dibangun secara cepat, lahan yang layak. Hal ini tidak hanya menjadi faktor yang mendasari kemacetan di perkotaan, seringkali tanpa namun juga meningkatkan paparan penduduk terhadap risiko bahaya di Indonesia. Kota- perencanaan dan kota yang muncul dari transisi perkotaan yang cepat ini akan memimpin pembangunan pengendalian Indonesia pada dekade-dekade mendatang. Namun, tanpa investasi yang dirancang secara pemanfaatan lahan strategis, intervensi kebijakan, dan lebih kuatnya kapasitas kelembagaan, buruknya yang layak pengelolaan urbanisasi dapat merintangi pertumbuhan yang berkelanjutan dan inklusif, serta memaparkan Indonesia terhadap risiko-risiko perubahan iklim dan bencana. b. Kerangka untuk membangun ketahanan perkotaan Tiga langkah penting Bank Dunia telah menawarkan kerangka praktis untuk membangun ketahanan perkotaan di menuju pembangunan wilayah Asia Timur dan Pasifik. Terdapat tiga pendekatan yang pokok dan sangat relevan ketahanan perkotaan bagi kota-kota di Indonesia. mencakup  Pertama adalah Perencanaan Pemanfaatan Lahan dan Investasi Infrastruktur berbasis perencanaan risiko yang mengenali dan memprioritaskan investasi-investasi guna meningkatkan pemanfaatan lahan dan ketahanan perkotaan terhadap berbagai perkiraan risiko. Bila telah ditetapkan dan investasi infrastruktur, diterapkan, rencana pemanfaatan lahan dapat mengendalikan pembangunan di berbagai perbaikan infrastruktur daerah rawan bencana, mendukung operasi penyelamatan, dan memberikan lokasi yang perkotaan, dan aman bagi pusat evakuasi darurat. pengelolaan ekosistem  Kedua adalah Perbaikan Infrastruktur Perkotaan. Pemukiman kumuh seringkali terletak perkotaan di daerah rawan bencana. Karakteristik umum dari pemukiman kumuh perkotaan (terlalu padat, struktur bangunan yang tidak memadai, jalan atau gang yang sempit, tidak tersedianya layanan dasar) membuat kaum miskin perkotaan lebih rawan terhadap risiko-risiko bencana. Untuk merumuskan strategi yang tepat guna memperbaiki pemukiman perkotaan, lokasi-lokasi yang sangat rawan terhadap risiko-risiko tersebut harus diidentifikasi dan aset-aset yang ada dilokasi itu harus diperbaiki. Di setiap lokasi yang telah teridentifikasi, satu atau lebih instrumen perbaikan perkotaan yang strategis dapat diterapkan, misalnya: (i) penerapan peraturan penataanwilayah di daerah-daerah rawan bencana (seperti kegiatan-kegiatan yang diperkenankan dan syarat-syarat yang harus dipenuhi oleh suatu bangunan); (ii) penerapan instrumen struktural dan non- struktural bagi mitigasi dan evakuasi; serta(iii) perbaikan infrastruktur di kawasan kumuh sesuai dengan rencana tata ruang kota.  Ketiga adalah Pengelolaan Ekosistem Perkotaan, yang memadukan perencanaan investasi dengan restorasi ekosistem. Hal ini sangatlah penting untuk menurunkan risiko-risiko bencana yang dipicu oleh investasi pembangunan. Sejumlah prosedur pengelolaan ekosistem memiliki relevansi dengan ketahanan perkotaan, termasuk pengelolaan daerah aliran air (pengelolaan daerah aliran sungai, pengelolaan daerah resapan air, dll.), pengelolaan daerah pesisir, zona penyangga lingkungan, infrastruktur hijau, dan rancangan lansekap perkotaan. 32WorldBank, 2012,“Indonesia - The rise of metropolitan regions: towards inclusive and sustainable regional development”, Washington, DC, World Bank. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 32 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Namun, kota-kota di Di dalam hirarki perencanaan Gambar 30: Status Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW) Indonesia menghadapi Indonesia, instrumen utama (Februari 2014) tantangan yang sulit untuk mengelola pembangunan 2% dalam pelaksanaan adalah Rencana Detil Tata On revision penataan pemanfaatan Ruang (RDTR) yang , yang lahan bagi ketahanan mana merupakan tanggung Recommended by jawab dari pemerintah Governor 19-21% setempat. Menurut UU No. 26/2007 tentang Penataan Proceeded for Ruang, rencana detil tata ruang approval by National Board (BKPRN) menjadi dasar bagi peraturan Received Subtantive penataan wilayah, termasuk 72-77% Approval from MPW pengelolaan kegiatan di kawasan rawan bencana, atau daerah Enacted as By Law yang memiliki pertumbuhan cepat dan kepadatan tinggi. RDTR dirumuskan berdasarkan, dan setelah, Sumber: Direktorat Tata Kota, Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (2014) (RTRW) ditetapkan sebagai sebuah peraturan daerah. Hingga kini, lebih dari 70% kota-kota di Indonesia telah menetapkan peraturan tentang RTRW (Gambar 30), yang memungkinkan pengelola kota untuk merumuskan rencana detil tata ruang dan peraturan penataan wilayah dan mulai membangun ketahanan. Rencana terperinci tata Sesuai dengan Peraturan Pemerintah No. 8/2013 tentang skala dan tingkat ketelitian peta kota harus rencana tata ruang, RDTR harus menggunakan peta dasar pada skala sesuai dengan bentang menggunakan peta kawasan strategis kota, dan luasan tingkat kepentingan objek yang direncanakan. Terkait dasar pada skala sesuai dengan penataan wilayah rawan, dapat digunakan peta berskala dari 1:5.000 hingga 1:1.000, dengan bentang yang umumnya tidak tersedia di lembaga-lembaga pemerintahan. Bila data tersebut tidak kawasan strategis kota tersedia, foto-foto udara dan satelit beresolusi tinggi dapat digunakan dan penggunaan survei darat partisipatif dapat dipertimbangkan. Hal ini harus didukung oleh prosedur-prosedur validasi data yang memadai guna memastikan bahwa datageospasial yang dihasilkan dapat secara sah digunakan sebagai dasar resmi penataan wilayah. Kegagalan pemerintah Penanganan risiko-risiko bencana dan iklim di daerah-daerah rawan bencana dengan daerah untuk penghuni dan aset-aset yang telah ada merupakan tugas yang mendesak. Kegagalan mengambil tindakan pemerintah daerah dalam mengambil tindakan nyata akan menimbulkan kerawanan- nyata akan kerawanan baru. Masalah yang rumit berkenaan dengan penghuni liar yang bermukim di menyebabkan tepian sungai-sungai di Jakarta yang rawan banjir merupakan contoh dari tidak adanya kerawanan baru penataan detil wilayah. Hal ini memaksa pemerintah setempat untuk terus-menerus menanggung biaya banjir tanpa adanya instrumen yang jelas guna mulai memugar jalur air dan memperbaiki daerah terdampak di sekitarnya. c. Pendekatan diagnostik risiko cepat dapat mengidentifikasi opsi-opsi praktis untuk investasi ketahanan bencana dan iklim di kota-kota di Indonesia Fokus awal harus Karena Indonesia memiliki banyak pusat perkotaan yang tengah berkembang, sangatlah kepada daerah penting untuk mulai menilik ketahanan perkotaan di lokasi-lokasi dimana intervensi tersebut perkotaan utama berpotensi untuk membawa dampak yang terbesar.Dengan menggunakan hirarki kota-kota berukuran sedang di Indonesia, dimulai dari kota berukuran kecil hingga sedang, besar, metropolitan,dan megapolitan, Indonesia dapat mulai memanfaatkan RTRW sebagai kriteria penentu lokasi kota yang akan menerapkan intervensi pendukung ketahanan perkotaan. Tabel 11memberikan gambaran luas bahwa sebagian besar kota-kota berukuran sedang dan besar telah menetapkan RTRW mereka, sehingga siap untuk menerapkan RDTR di daerah-daerah pembangunan yang diprioritaskan serta koridor-koridor berisiko tinggi. M a r et 20 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 33 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Tabel 11: Status rencana tata ruang wilayah (RTRW) kota per bulan Februari 2014 Langkah Legislasi Tipologi kota menurut Jumlah Proses Rekomenda Mendapatkan Ditetapkan jumlah penduduk kota revisi si gubernur Pembahasan persetujuan sebagai perda BKPRN* substantif dari Kemen PU Megapolitan 11 - - 1 1 9 (lebih dari satu pusat kota) Metropolitan 8 - - - 1 7 (populasi > 1 juta) Kota besar 23 - - 1 5 17 (pop 500.000-1 juta) Kota sedang 44 - - - 10 34 (pop 100.000-500.000) Kota kecil 7 - - - 2 5 (pop < 100.000) Total 93 - - 2 19 72 Sumber:Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum, dihimpun oleh staf Bank Dunia. Catatan: * RTRW beberapa kota yang mencakup zona strategis nasional membutuhkan persetujuan BKPRN Enam kota telah Bekerjasama dengan berbagai Gambar 31: Pertumbuhan penduduk di enam kota terpilih untuk mitra nasional dan daerah dalam percontohan pelaksanaan pembangunan perkotaan, Yogyakarta Balikpapan Denpasar diagnostik risiko cepat perbincangan dengan kota besar Makassar Palembang Semarang dan metropolitan tentang profil 1,800,000 risiko bencana dan iklim telah 1,600,000 dimulai melalui pelaksanaan 1,400,000 pemeriksaan/diagnostik risiko 1,200,000 cepat. Enam kota, yaitu 1,000,000 Palembang, Balikpapan, Makassar, 800,000 Semarang, Yogyakarta,dan 600,000 Denpasar, telah dipilih. Enam 400,000 kota itu mencatat pertumbuhan 200,000 penduduk (Gambar 31), dan 0 pernah menghadapi berbagai 2007 2008 2009 2010 bencana. Sumber: BPS, dihimpun oleh staf Bank Dunia. Lima kota telah Enam kota tersebut juga telah membawa RTRW mereka ke tingkat selanjutnya. Kecuali menetapkan RTRW Makassar, lima kota yang lain telah menetapkan RTRW menjadi peraturan daerah, yang mereka memberikan landasan hukum untuk melanjutkan pelaksanaan RDTR dan proses penataan wilayah (Tabel 12). Tabel 12: Status rencana tata ruang wilayah (RTRW) dari kota-kota yang dipelajari No. Kota Kategori Status RTRW 1 Denpasar Metropolitan telah ditetapkan sebagai Perda Mendapatkan persetujuan substantif dari Kemen 2 Makassar Metropolitan PU 3 Palembang Metropolitan telah ditetapkan sebagai Perda 4 Yogyakarta Metropolitan telah ditetapkan sebagai Perda 5 Semarang Metropolitan telah ditetapkan sebagai Perda 6 Balikpapan Kota besar telah ditetapkan sebagai Perda Diagnostik cepat Suatu profil risiko disusun untuk setiap kota di atas dengan menggunakan diagnostik risiko memungkinkan cepat guna menguraikan struktur tata ruang dan tren pertumbuhan dari kota-kota tersebut, identifikasi risiko pola terjadinya bencana, dan daerah-daerah yang paling terdampak, serta seluruh investasi bencana dan iklim perkotaan yang ada dan sedang dilaksanakan (Gambar 32). Uraian itu memberikan gambaran serta prioritas tentang bagaimana kota-kota dapat mempertimbangkan penyertaan komponen ketahanan di ketahanan yang dalam investasi publiknya. Sebagai contoh, Balikpapan adalah kota yang rawan terhadap sesuai... banjir daerah pesisir pantai, namun kota itu hendak membangun jalan baru di daerah pesisir. M a r et 20 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 34 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Investasi tersebut dapat menjadi bagian dari pembangunan kembali wilayah pesisir, dengan menyertakan fungsi pengelolaan air, seperti kolam retensi multi-fungsi untuk pengendalian banjir dan pariwisata. … dan tema-tema yang Tema-tema serupa dialami oleh keenam kota tersebut, termasuk masalah kemiskinan serupa dialami oleh perkotaan dengan penduduk di kawasan kumuh, dan tantangan pengelolaan risiko bencana keenam kota tersebut yang jamak terjadi di kawasan perkotaan dalam bentuk banjir dan kebakaran. Kecuali Yogyakarta, kota-kota lain terletak di pesisir pantai dan menghadapi keputusan yang sulit dalam menyeimbangkan pembangunan ekonomi dan perlindungan ekosistem pantai dalam lingkungan yang peka tersebut. Diagnostik risiko cepat itu menyoroti berbagai peluang bagi keenam kota itu dalam menanggapi tantangan tersebut dan mulai memperbaiki ketahanan. Gambar 32: Contoh profil risiko kota yang sederhana untuk Balikpapan Sumber:Profil Risiko Kota Balikpapan, Bank Dunia (2013). d. Membangun ketahanan melalui penataan wilayah yang peka risiko serta perencanaan infrastruktur RTRW yang ada Proses perencanaan infrastruktur dan tata ruang yang detil memungkinkan kota-kota untuk menjadi landasan bagi menyertakan langkah-langkah mitigasi risiko ke dalam praktik yang ada. Sebagai contoh, RDTR yang peka RTRW yang ada dan telah menyertakan risiko bencana dan iklim, seperti di Balikpapan, risiko Denpasar,dan Yogyakarta, dapat semakin dikembangkan menjadi RDTR yang peka risiko. Balikpapan Sesuai dengan RTRW yang kini berlaku, Balikpapan menerapkan sejumlah upaya pencegahan menerapkan sejumlah banjir, termasuk normalisasi sungai, pembangunan dan pemeliharaan sistem drainase, serta upaya pencegahan pembangunan sebuah bendungan kecil. Investasi publik dialokasikan pada kegiatan-kegiatan banjir pembangunan ketahanan, seperti revitalisasi daerah aliran sungai, konservasi hutan lindung dan peningkatan sistem drainase, baik di tingkat kota maupun tingkat pemukiman. Selain itu, Balikpapan juga menerapkan langkah-langkah penetapantata ruang, termasuk pengetatan pemberian izin pembangunan di daerah rawan longsor. Upaya-upaya tersebut dapat dikonsolidasikan ke dalam penetapan tata ruang yang peka risiko sebagai dasar perencanaan investasi dalam infrastruktur, serta rehabilitasi dan perlindungan ruang hijau dan perairan. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 35 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Denpasar dapat Beberapa opsi perencanaan investasi infrastruktur berdasar risiko di Denpasar mencakup menetapkan percepatan pelaksanaan mitigasi bencana banjir dan tsunami yang menyeluruh melalui pengendalian penetapan pengendalian pembangunan di daerah rawan banjir dan tsunami. Sebagai contoh, pembangunan pada dengan maraknya pembangunan hotel-hotel baru di daerah Sanur, pemerintah kota dapat daerah-daerah rawan menggunakan izin bangunan dan lokasi sebagai alat untuk mengatur ulang tata letak daerah banjir dan tsunami pantai guna membuka lebih banyak akses evakuasi ke daerah pantai sebagai bagian dari kampanye “Denpasar aman bagi wisatawan”. Yogyakarta Yogyakarta, yang pernah mengalami bencana berskala besar dalam bentuk banjir, lahar, mencantumkan tanah longsor, dan gempa bumi, menyertakan rencana lokasi evakuasi di dalam RTRW-nya. rencana situs-situs Lokasi-lokasi tersebut telah diidentifikasi di seluruh penjuru kota, termasuk ruang hijau, alun- evakuasi di dalam alun kota, dan pusat-pusat olahraga. Aturan perencanaan telah membatasi pembangunan di RTRW-nya sejumlah daerah sekitar sungai, dengan investasi yang cukup besar bagi upaya pencegahan banjir, lahar, tanah longsor, dan pengendalian infrastruktur. Peningkatan pemukiman liar di sepanjang tepi sungai juga dapat digunakan sebagai jalan pembuka zona penyangga untuk memitigasi dampak banjir, serta untuk membangun potensi pariwisata “jalan kampung” yang dapat membuka peluang bagi penduduk berpenghasilan rendah untuk turut menikmati manfaat pasar pariwisata kota yang cukup besar di daerah tersebut. e. Membangun ketahanan melalui perbaikan infrastruktur perkotaan Kesempatan untuk Reklamasi menjadi opsi yang populer bagi pembangunan di kota-kota tepi pantai. Walau membangun seringkali bersifat ambisius, proyek perkotaan berukuran besar itu membuka peluang bagi ketahanan muncul pembangunan ketahanan melalui perbaikan infrastruktur perkotaan, seperti ketika dalam proyek pembangunan kawasan perkotaan dapat disertakan ke dalam reklamasi lahan, seperti di perkotaan yang besar Makassar dan Balikpapan. Makassar dapat Makassar memiliki jumlah kawasan kumuh yang cukup besar, sebagian terletak di daerah tepi menyertakan sungai atau daerah rawan banjir pasang. Kota itu memiliki rencana yang ambisius untuk perbaikan kawasan mereklamasi pantai Losari, merevitalisasi anak sungai Tallo,dan mereklamasi sepanjang kumuh ke dalam daerah delta pantainya. Rencana besar ini dapat mendukung ketahanan dengan menyertakan rencananya dan perbaikan kawasan kumuh dan menggunakan konsep pembangunan yang peka perairan, menerapkan guna memastikan pembangunan sistem sanitasi dan drainase yang memadai serta risiko- pembangunan yang risiko banjir di kawasan pantai maupun tengah kota telah dimitigasi . peka perairan Di Balikpapan, jalan Balikpapan memiliki enam desa kumuh yang cukup besar,berbangunan kayu mengapung di pantai yang baru dapat bagian pesisir selatan dan barat. Pemukiman itu memiliki tingkat kerawanan yang tinggi digunakan untuk terhadap bahaya laut, termasuk peningkatan permukaan air laut. Karena kota Balikpapan juga memperbaiki kawasan melaksanakan rencana pembangunan jalan di daerah pesisir, termasuk reklamasi, proyek ini kumuh dapat pula dimanfaatkan sebagai landasan untuk memperbaiki pemukiman kumuh yang letaknya berdekatan, perbaikan drainase untuk mitigasi banjir, serta revitalisasi sistem retensi perairan bagi pasokan air dan pengendalian banjir. f. Membangun ketahanan melalui pengelolaan dan restorasi ekosistem Kota-kota yang Makassar dan Palembang menunjukkan pentingnya membangun ketahanan dengan memiliki sungai dan peningkatan pengelolaan dan restorasi ekosistem, yang terutama erat kaitannya bagi kota- lahan basah lebih kota yang memiliki sungai dan lahan basah di Indonesia. Di Makassar, pengelolaan ekosistem bergantung kepada perkotaan dibutuhkan untuk merevitalisasi hutan bakau, selain untuk melestarikan hutan dan ekosistem dan dapat daerah serapan air di daerah sekitar hulu sungai. Tujuannya adalah mengurangi sedimentasi melihat restorasi dan di muara sungai, terutama muara sungai Tallo, yang telah meningkat akibat konversi lahan konservasi sebagai dan tanah longsor. Pengelolaan ekosistem dapat menawarkan pendekatan mitigasi pendekatan penurunan permukaan tanah yang lebih efektif melalui penanaman pohon di daerah-daerah pembangunan yang kembali dihijaukan. Langkah ini akan meningkatkan kapasitas cadangan air di kawasan pesisir guna mencegah masuknya air laut ke daratan. Di Palembang, banjir dari sungai Musi dan anak-anak sungainya merupakan masalah yang kronis. Pada tahun 2012, kota Palembang M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 36 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia menetapkan peraturan daerah untuk mengendalikan pembangunan lahan basah. Peraturan ini menetapkan daerah-daerah konservasi yang ketat dan daerah-daerah yang diperuntukkan bagi kegiatan pertanian, perikanan, perkebunan, dan pemukiman. Reklamasi akan memberikan alternatif kolam retensi dan/atau cadangan air untuk menjaga keseimbangan lingkungan serta memelihara kualitas air dan pencegahan banjir. Langkah-langkah tersebut dapat ditingkatkan lebih lanjut dengan menggunakan pendekatan ekosistem dalam pembangunan lahan dan daerah perumahan di sepanjang sungai Musi. g. Sekaranglah waktu bagi Indonesia untuk memprioritaskan ketahanan terhadap risiko bencana perkotaan dan iklim Saat ini adalah waktu Seiring dengan kesiapan sebagian besar kota-kota di Indonesia untuk memulai proses untuk berinvestasi rencana detil tata ruang pada 1-2 tahun ke depan, terdapat peluang untuk memanfaatkan pada rencana tata momentum tersebut guna membangun ketahanan perkotaan. Penerapan diagnostik risiko ruang yang peka risiko secara cepat telah terbukti bermanfaat untuk memulai perbincangan berkenaan dengan risiko-risiko maupun berbagai opsi mitigasi risiko tersebut dengan para pemimpin dan pemangku kepentingan kota serta untuk mengidentifikasi risiko-risiko iklim dan bencana yang paling signifikan. Diagnostik itu mengidentifikasi beragam alternatif mitigasi risiko praktis yang dapat diterapkan oleh kota-kota melalui penyesuaian program-program investasi perkotaan yang tengah berjalan. Dibutuhkan peta Namun, untuk melaksanakan proses tersebut secara lebih sistematis, data geospasial dengan berskala detil tentang skala detil tentang aset-aset kota, pusat-pusat penduduk, bahaya dan kerawanan alami sangat aset-aset kota, pusat dibutuhkan guna mendapatkan diagnostik yang akurat. Sistem juga harus diterapkan untuk penduduk, serta memastikan bahwa diagnostik cepat akan lantas diterjemahkan ke dalam persyaratan bahaya dan kerawanan penataan ruang resmi di dalam RDTR guna mengendalikan dan mengelola pembangunan alam tata ruang, serta proyek-proyek peningkatan dan investasi perkotaan yang utama. Perencanaan bagi restorasi ekosistem harus disertakan guna mendukung perbaikan ketahanan perkotaan di kota-kota di Indonesia dan menurunkan paparan terhadap ancaman bencana dan iklim. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 37 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia C. Indonesia tahun 2015 dan selanjutnya: Tinjauan pilihan 1. Indonesia: Menghindari perangkap Sasaran pembangunan Sasaran pembangunan Indonesia dalam 20 tahun ke depan cukup ambisius, yaitu berupaya Indonesia untuk 20 meningkatkan kesejahteraannya, menghindari diri dari terperangkap di zona negara tahun mendatang yang berpenghasilan menengah dan membangun ekonomi secara bersama tanpa meninggalkan cukup ambisius hanya siapapun dalam upaya mengejar kertertinggalan dari negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi. akan tercapai bila Untuk mencapainya, Indonesia membutuhkan pertumbuhan dan penciptaan lapangan kerja Indonesia memiliki yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan, dan juga meningkatkan pemerataan. Hal yang kemudian strategi pertumbuhan menjadi pertanyaan adalah dapatkah Indonesia mencapainya? Laporan Tinjauan Kebijakan yang tepat serta Pembangunan Bank Dunia yang segera diterbitkan yang berjudul “Indonesia: Menghindari berupaya untuk Perangkap” menampilkan beberapa usulan yang menggaris bawahi bahwa Indonesia melakukan reformasi memiliki potensi untuk bangkit dan meraih kesejahteraan dan pemerataan. Namun risiko struktural di beberapa “mengambang di tengah” memang nyata. Arah perkembangan yang akan diambil oleh suatu sektor prioritas perekonomian bergantung kepada beberapa hal: (i) pemilihan strategi pertumbuhan yang membelenggu dan menyalurkan potensi produktivitas ekonomi tersebut; dan (ii) pengimplementasian kebijakan yang konsisten yang merupakan buah dari reformasi struktural di beberapa sektor prioritas dalam rangka mendorong pertumbuhan dan mendistribusikan kesejahteraan secara lebih luas. Dalam hal ini , Indonesia sebenarnya cukup beruntung karena memiliki pilihan dalam pembiayaan reformasi tersebut tanpa harus mengganggu prospek fiskal jangka panjangnya. Akan tetapi, kesulitannya terletak dalam pelaksanaan reformasi, khususnya dalam memasuki kerangka kerja institutsi yang rumit dan terdesentralisasi. Dan bagi Indonesia, satu-satunya pilihan yang dilakukan adalah berusaha sebaik-baiknya, karena pertaruhan yang ada hanyalah melakukan reformasi dengan hasil yang tinggi atau tidak melakukan reformasi sama sekali dengan harga kegagalan yang besar. Laporan mendatang “Indonesia: Menghindari Perangkap” merupakan kontribusi Bank Dunia dalam upaya menjawab debat publik yang sangat penting tentang prioritas kebijakan pembangunan perekonomian di Indonesia dan tantangannnya. Dan secara singkat, temuan- temuan utama dalam laporan tersebut akan dipaparkan dalam Bagian C di laporan ini. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 38 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia a. Dekade berikut membawa berbagai risiko dan kesempatan Empat faktor utama, Didekade yang akan datang, ada empat hal utama, dalam dan luar negri, yang dapat dijadikan dalam dan luar negeri, tumpuan harapan bagi perkembangan perekonomian Indonesia. Keempat hal ini ditenggarai yang menjadi harapan dapat menjadi faktor pendorong pertumbuhan yang kuat melalui rangkaian kebijakan yang bagi perkembangan baik, atau bisa disebut sebagai “faktor penarik” bagi perekonomian. Faktor-faktor itu adalah ekonomi Indonesia kondisi demografis dan perkembangan urbanisasi yang tengah berlangsung di Indonesia; dan prospek perkembangan harga komoditas internasional serta pertumbuhan ekonomi di Cina. Indonesia berpotensi Indonesia beruntung memiliki tenaga kerja yang melimpah. Antara tahun 2013 dan 2020, memetik manfaat dari penduduk dengan usia kerja akan meningkat sebesar 14,8 juta jiwa, mencapai 189 juta dari bonus demografi 174 juta saat ini. Saat ini, 50 persen penduduk berusia kurang dari 30 tahun. Tenaga muda berkat penduduknya yang semakin berpendidikan dan memahami teknologi informasi ini merupakan aset yang yang masih muda... dapat digunakan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan produktivitas secara keseluruhan. Dengan penempatan kebijakan-kebijakan pemanfaatan tenaga kerja yang tepat, Indonesia siap untuk memetik manfaat dari bonus demografi yang dimilikinya sebelum populasi yang ada mulai memasuki usia tua pada tahun 2025-30. …dan laju Laju pertumbuhan urbanisasi yang mencapai 4 persen per tahun menjadikan Indonesia urbanisasinya yang sebagai salah satu negara yang mengalami urbanisasi tercepat di dunia. Pada tahun 2025, 68 merupakan salah satu persen dari seluruh penduduk Indonesia diperkirakan akan hidup di daerah perkotaan, yang tercepat di dunia menigkat dari 52 persen pada tahun 2012 (menurut proyeksi PBB). Dengan meningkatnya pendapatan dan daerah-daerah metropolitan besar seperti Jakarta dan Surabaya yang makin jenuh, maka permintaan akan barang-barang konsumsi berkualitas tinggi, tempat perbelanjaan dan perumahan akan meningkat secara signifikan pada kota-kota yang lebih kecil. Menghubungkan kota-kota itu dengan para penghuninya ke daerah-daerah pedesaan, daerah-daerah metropolitan dan ekonomi global menjadi sangat penting dalam menarik perusahaan-perusahaan dan mencapai kesejahteraan bersama. Bukti empiris menunjukkan bahwa urbanisasi mendukung pertumbuhan dan pengentasan kemiskinan di Indonesia hanya dengan kehadiran infrastruktur yang memadai (Lewis, 2012). Gambar 33: Faktor demografi memberikan dorongan: Rasio Gambar 34: …sementara dorongan dari komoditas, yang kebergantungan Indonesia tampaknya akan menurun selama ini menjadi mesin pertumbuhan pendapatan sampai 2025-30… nominal, perannya kini makin memudar… (kontribusi ke pertumbuhan PDB nominal yoy, persen) (kontribusi ke pertumbuhan PDB nominal growth yoy, persen) 90 Total rasio ketergantungan 30 80 70 25 Keseluruh 60 an 20 ekonomi 50 Persentase umur 15-64 40 15 30 Anak:14 ke bawah 10 Sektor 20 komoditas 5 10 Manula di atas 64 0 0 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Sumber: Bagian Kependudukan pada Departemen Ekonomi dan Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sosial pada Sekertariat PBB, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 39 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lebih lemahnya harga Pelemahan harga-harga komoditas global sejak tahun 2011 membawa beberapa tantangan komoditas jangka pendek bagi Indonesia sebagaimana yang terlihat dampaknya dalam neraca internasional dapat perdagangan Indonesia saat ini, pelemahan harga komoditas juga menawarkan kesempatan menjadi berkah dalam peningkatan kualitas dan keragaman investasi di Indonesia. Selama dekade yang lalu, terselubung dalam tingginya harga-harga komoditas mendorong insentif investasi yang lebih besar pada sektor sejumlah segmen di sumber daya alam dan sektor yang tidak dapat diperdagangkan (non-tradable) (misalnya sektor sektor manufaktur… perumahan) dibanding invetasi di sektor manufaktur dan sektor-sektor yang dapat diperdagangkan. Porsi manufaktur di dalam keseluruhan investasi kemudian menurun menjadi 12 persen di tahun 2002-11 dibanding hampir seperlima pada periode tahun 1990- 96. Kedepannya, rendahnya harga-harga komoditas diharapkan mampu meningkatkan profitabilitas relatif dan daya tarik dari manufaktur (yang tidak berkaitan dengan komoditas) dan dapat membantu Indonesia mengembangkan basis industrinya. Harga komoditas turun selama dua tahun terakhir, melalui dampaknya terhadap neraca berjalan, yang kini menyebabkan depresiasi dalam kurs tukar efektif riil, yang membantu ekspor manufaktur dan daya saing. Dengan melakukan reformasi yang mampu mengurangi rintangan para perusahaan manufaktur dalam berusaha (lihat di bawah), maka lebih lemahnya harga-harga komoditas diharapkan dapat berbuah menjadi keberkahan yang terselubung. …sementara cepatnya Peningkatan upah yang sangat cepat yang terjadi di Cina memberikan peluang bagi Indonesia peningkatan upah di untuk meraih kembali keunggulan komparatifnya di sektor-sektor ekspor yang padat karya. Cina memberi Peningkatan upah nominal di Cina yang mencapai rata-rata 15 persen per-tahun sejak tahun “kesempatan kedua” 2001 dan diiringi dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan produktivitas pada sektor-sektor bagi Indonesia dalam berketerampilan rendah pada beberapa tahun terakhir, telah mengakibatkan peningkatan ekspor manufaktur biaya tenaga kerja hampir sebesar 70 persen di Cina sejak tahun 2005 (Economist Intelligence Unit, 2012). Sementara itu, apresiasi Yuan yang terus berlangsung, dengan kurs tukar riil efektif yang telah meningkat sebesar 30 persen sejak tahun 2005, telah mengikis daya saing Cina dalam memproduksi barang-barang manufaktur. Tekanan-tekanan ini, bersama-sama dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi secara keseluruhan dikenal sebagai penyeimbangan pertumbuhan ekonomi (re-balancing) di Cina, tampaknya akan mampu mendorong para investor untuk memperluas pertimbangannya untuk berinvestsi lebih jauh ke daerah-daerah pesisir Cina. Di saat yang bersamaan, dinamika tersebut memberikan peluang kepada negara-negara ASEAN, termasuk Indonesia, untuk menarik lebih banyak investasi ke industri-industri manufaktur mereka. Namun terdapat dua Namun demikian, di saat faktor-faktor yang menguntungkan tersebut di atas membutuhkan risiko utama reformasi, Indonesia saat ini menghadapi dua risiko dalam pertumbuhannya: risiko perlambatan pada pertumbuhan jangka panjang dan risiko pertumbuhan yang tidak cukup inklusif. Pertama, tanpa Pengalaman internasional menunjukkan bahwa perlambatan pertumbuhan dapat terjadi pada reformasi struktural, tingkat pendapatan berapapun (Bulman dkk., 2012). Bukti-bukti terakhir menunjukkan Indonesia bahwa frekuensinya lebih tinggi bagi negara-negara berpenghasilan menengah (IMF, 2013). menghadapi risiko Sebagai contoh, Brasil meningkat dengan cepat pada tahun 1960an dan 1970an. Lalu sejak perlambatan tahun 1981, ketika PDB per kapita-nya mencapai 3.939 dolar AS (sedikit di atas PDB per pertumbuhan yang kapita Indonesia saat ini), Brasil kemudian mencatatkan perlambatan pertumbuhan relatif nyata yang berkepanjangan, hingga tahun 2004.33 Pengalaman serupa juga dialami Meksiko yang mencatat perlambatan pertumbuhan berkepanjangan selama lebih dari 20 tahun setelah tahun 1981, yaitu ketika PDB per kapita-nya mencapai 6.965 dolar AS. Pengalaman- pengalaman di atas menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia tidak boleh meremehkan kuatnya kinerja pertumbuhannya. Sesungguhnya, pertumbuhan yang selama ini terjadi salah satunya didorong oleh lingkungan eksternal yang sangat mendukung: yaitu lewat ledakan komoditas yang terjadi pada periode tahun 2003-11 bersama-sama dengan rendahnya suku bunga global sejak tahun 2009 yang kondusif bagi pendapatan dunia usaha, pendapatan rumah tangga dan 33Brasil adalah negara yang kaya akan komoditas seperti Indonesia, yang memetik banyak keuntungan dari ledakan komoditas pada tahun 2004-11. Faktor eksternal yang menguntungkan ini menjelaskan sebagian pemulihan pertumbuhan yang kuat di Brasil pada periode tersebut. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 40 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia penerimaan pemerintah, serta menjadi pendorong bagi kuatnya peningkatan permintaan dalam negeri.34 Menuju ke depan, Indonesia tidak lagi dapat bergantung kepada stimulus pertumbuhan apapun dari faktor-faktor yang berasal dari luar negeri. Seperti disinggung di atas, sejak tahun 2011, harga-harga komoditas telah mencatat pelemahan yang signifikan. Dengan normalisasi pertumbuhan AS, kebijakan stimulus quantitative easing Bank Sentral AS—yang selama ini mendorong rendahnya suku bunga dunia— akan dilepas secara bertahap. Hal ini akan meningkatkan biaya pendanaan dengan implikasi sekunder bagi investasi. Dengan memudarnya faktor-faktor pendukung yang bersifat ekternal tersebut, Indonesia akan menghadapi risiko perlambatan pertumbuhan material yang nyata bila tidak segera melaksanakan reformasi struktural. Kedua, juga terdapat Meskipun Indonesia mampu menghindari perlambatan pertumbuhan yang berkepanjangan, risiko bahwa pertumbuhan yang terjadi mungkin tidak cukup inklusif, yang berarti bahwa manfaat dan pertumbuhan mungkin kesempatan tidak tersedia secara merata pada seluruh penduduk. Dari tahun 1999 hingga tidak cukup merata; 2012, tingkat kemiskinan telah berkurang separuhnya dari 24 persen menjadi 12 persen. sehingga pertumbuhan Namun pada tahun 2012, sekitar 65 juta jiwa masih hidup di antara garis kemiskinan nasional yang inklusif harus dan tingkat 50 persen di atas garis itu. Bersama-sama dengan penduduk miskin, kelompok dibina dan tidak boleh tersebut masih sangat rentan menghadapi peningkatan harga bahan pangan, kejutan diremehkan kesehatan dan bencana alam. Satu alasan dibalik kerentanan yang terus bercokol ini adalah bahwa rumah tangga yang paling miskin hanya mencatat peningkatan pendapatan yang lebih kecil dibanding dengan rumah tangga yang lebih berada. Selama periode tahun 2003-10, pertumbuhan riil konsumsi per kapita bagi 40 persen rumah tangga paling miskin hanya 1,3 persen per tahun, dibanding 3,5 persen bagi lapis 40 persen rumah tangga berikutnya, dan 5,9 persen bagi 20 persen rumah tangga teratatas (Gambar 35). Selain itu, semakin meningkatnya ketimpangan konsumsi di Indonesia juga diperlihatkan dengan perbedaan dalam akses pada kesempatan antar penduduk. Pada tahun 2002, 27 persen ketimpangan konsumsi seorang anak berasal dari adanya perbedaan gender, status pekerjaan dan gender kepala rumah tangga-nya, pendidikan orangtuanya, dan daerah dan tempat lahirnya. Pada tahun 2012, angka ketimpangan ini telah mencapai 37 persen. Karenanya untuk kemajuan kedepan, pertumbuhan yang merata harus segera didorong dan sama sekali tidak boleh diremehkan. Gambar 35: Rumah tangga yang lebih miskin mencatat pertumbuhan konsumsi riil di bawah rata-rata selama 2003-10 12 persen 40 persen 80 persen 8 Pertumbuhan disetahunkan 6 Rata-rata pertumbuhan untuk semua rumah tangga (persen) 4 2 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 Persentil konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita Catatan: Kurva Growth Incidence Curve (GIC) menunjukkan laju pertumbuhan konsumsi tahunan antara dua periode untuk setiap persentil dalam distribusi. Dengan demikian, GIC menunjukkan bagaimana rata-rata pertumbuhan konsumsi didistribusikan lintas seluruh distribusi rumah tangga. Sumber: Susenas dan perhitungan Bank Dunia 34 Lebih spesifik, peningkatan langsung dalam nilai aset-aset sumber daya (minyak sawit, karet, batubara, gas dll.), dan juga nilai aset-aset lain yang dibeli dari kekayaan atau penerimaan komoditas (properti real estat, tanah dan sekuritas), secara signifikan mendorong konsumsi dan investasi untuk aset-aset tersebut dan menghasilkan efek multiplier di dalam ekonomi. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 41 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia b. Strategi yang dibutuhkan untuk pertumbuhan yang kuat dan inklusif di Indonesia Indonesia akan Menimbang kesempatan-kesempatan dan risiko-risiko yang dibahas di atas, dan cita-cita mampu menempatkan Indonesia akan kesejahteraan yang merata, yang menjadi pertanyaan selanjutnya adalah dirinya di posisi yang apakah yang akan menjadi strategi pertumbuhan terbaik bagi Indonesia menuju ke depan? lebih baik adalah Secara sederhana, suatu negara dapat meningkatkan pendapatan per kapita-nya dengan dengan meningkatkan menggabungkan antara peningkatan produktivitas tenaga kerjadan peningkatan jumlah produktivitas tenaga penduduk yang bekerja.35 Karena jumlah pekerja meningkat sangat lambat sesuai waktu. kerjanya. Hal ini tak Pengalaman di berbagai negara menunjukkan bahwa 92 persen dari variasi dalam PDB per lain merupakan satu- kapita lintas negara (mewakili kesejahteraan) dapat dijelaskan dengan melihat variasi dalam satunya cara untuk produktivitas tenaga kerja secara agregat (IMF, 2013). Sehingga agar PDB per kapita mengakomodasi upah Indonesia dapat menyusul ketertinggalan dari negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi dengan yang lebih tinggi lebih cepat, maka dorongan pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui peningkatan produktivitas tenaga kerja sangatlah penting. Strategi pertumbuhan yang didorong oleh produktivitas juga penting bagi Indonesia untuk mengurangi kerentanan dan meningkatkan daya saing dunia usahanya. Sesungguhnya, tekanan politis untuk meningkatkan upah tampaknya tidak akan melemah di Indonesia. Dalam konteks ini, satu-satunya jalan untuk mengakomodasi peningkatan upah tanpa mengganggu daya saing adalah dengan meningkatkan produktivitas tenaga kerjanya. Sebanyak lebih dari 50 Bergerak menuju ke sebuah model pertumbuhan yang didorong oleh produktivitas akan persen tenaga kerja di mengakibatkan pergeseran signifikan bagi Indonesia. Selama beberapa dekade yang lalu, Indonesia berada di sebagian besar pertumbuhan telah didorong oleh akumulasi modal dan pertumbuhan tenaga sektor yang kerja dengan kontribusi jumlah faktor produktivitas (TFP) yang terbatas. Van Der Eng berproduktivitas (2008)36 menemukan bahwa TFP hanya menjelaskan 33 persen pertumbuhan pada periode rendah. Jumlah yang 2000-07 dan tidak memiliki andil dalam pertumbuhan sebelum tahun 2000. Hal ini perlu sangat besar bagi dibandingkan dengan Cina dan Republik Korea, di mana TFP mereka merupakan Indonesia, dimana pendorong dari lebih dari 50 persen pertumbuhan pada periode tersebut. Tingkat pekerjanya sebagian produktivitas agregat Indonesia—yang diukur oleh rata-rata nilai tambah per pekerja—juga besar berada di sektor tidak tinggi menurut standar regional. Sebagai contoh, rata-rata produktivitas setiap pekerja pertanian dan sektor di Malaysia hampir mencapai lima kali lipat dibanding Indonesia. Rata-rata produktivitas jasalapis bawah tenaga kerja di Indonesia juga lebih rendah dibanding Thailand, Filipina dan Cina. Perbedaan produktivitas ini mencerminkan struktur ekonomi yang ada. Di Indonesia, lebih dari 50 persen pekerja berada pada dua sektor berproduktivitas rendah, yaitu pertanian dan jasa-jasa lapis bawah (seperti perdagangan ritel, hotel dan restoran) yang sangat membebani produktivitas secara rata-rata. Untuk meningkatkan Pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja agregat memiliki dua sumber. Pertama, produktivitas tenaga pertumbuhan produktivitas di dalam masing – masing sektor perekonomian, misalnya kerja agregatnya, peningkatan hasil panen pada pertanian terjadi berkat penggunaan benih dengan hasil panen Indonesia harus yang lebih tinggi. Jenis pertumbuhan produktivitas sektoral ini umumnya timbul dari meningkatkan penggunaan modal yang lebih besar oleh pekerja (mesin dan peralatan yang lebih modern), produktivitas peningkatan kualitas tenaga kerja (pekerja dengan pelatihan yang lebih baik), penggunaan sektoralnya dan teknologi baru, dan persaingan di dalam sektor-sektor yang mendorong lebih banyaknya berupaya memfasilitasi jumlah perusahaan yang efisien. Kedua, pertumbuhan produktivitas secara agregat dapat pergerakan sumber dicapai dengan adanya pergerakan tenaga kerja (dan modal atau faktor-faktor produksi daya dari sektor yang (input)) dari sektor dengan produktivitas yang rendah ke yang lebih tinggi (“pengaruh berproduktivitas ke transformasi struktural”, McMillan dan Rodrik, 2011). Sebagai contoh, ketika para pekerja sektor yang meninggalkan bidang pertanian untuk bekerja pada sektor dengan produktivitas yang lebih breproduktivitas tinggi tinggi (contoh: sebagai akibat dari investasi pada pertanian yang meningkatkan hasil panen), produktivitas agregat ekonomi itu meningkat. Kebijakan-kebijakan yang umumnya 35 Dekomposisi PDB per kapitanya adalah sebagai berikut: ∗ . adalah produktivas tenaga kerja agregat dan adalah bagian populasi yang bekerja. 36Van der Eng, Pierre, 2008, “Capital Formation and Capital Stock in Indonesia, 1950-2007” Working Papers in Trade and Development No.24. Canberra: School of Economics, ANU College of Business and Economics, Australian National University M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 42 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia memfasilitasi pergerakan itu tak lain merupakan kebijakan-kebijakan yang dapat meningkatkan infrastruktur transportasi dan fleksibilitas di pasar tenaga kerja. Tahap berikut dari Kabar baiknya adalah Tabel 13: Perbedaan produktivitas tenaga kerja lintas sektor transformasi struktural Indonesia memiliki ruang cukup signifikan Indonesia adalah yang cukup besar untuk (produktivitas sektor tenaga kerja dibanding produktivitas tenaga kerja di bidang keharusan dalam mendorong pertanian) memperluas produktivitasnya melalui Sektor 2000-03 2005-08 2009-12 penciptaan lapangan transformasi struktural Pertanian 1,0 1,0 1,0 kerja di sektor yang lebih cepat. Tabel 13 Jasa tingkat rendah 2,4 2,5 2,2 manufaktur dan jasa menunjukkan jarak antara Industri manufaktur 5,7 5,8 5,0 Transportasi dan lapis-atas, dan tak lupa tingkat produktivitas komunikasi 2,8 3,5 5,5 ditunjang dengan tenaga kerja di sektor Jasa keuangan 21,5 20,5 14,6 adanya pengupayaan pertanian dengan tingkat Pertambangan dan 46,8 26,7 18,0 pergerakan tenaga produktivitas di sektor- penggalian kerja ke sektor-sektor sektor ekonomi lainnya Sumber: BPS and perhitungan staf Bank Dunia. dengan produktivitas yang diukur melalui rasio dari produktivitas sektoral terhadap pertanian. Memindahkan yang lebih tinggi seorang pekerja dari pertanian ke jasa lapis-bawah (perdagangan ritel dan kulakan dan personal, jasa sosial dan konstruksi) secara rata-rata mencatat peningkatan produktivitas sebesar dua kali lipat. Pergerakan ini umumnya terjadi selama dekade yang lalu dan telah menjadi pendorong utama pengentasan kemiskinan. Tujuh belas dari 20 juta pekerjaan yang tercipta pada tahun 2001-11 berada pada sektor jasa-jasa, sebagian besar pada jasa lapis- bawah. Tahap berikut dari transformasi struktural Indonesia harus bertujuan untuk meningkatkan pergerakan tenaga kerja dan penciptaan pekerjaan dalam pertumbuhan produktivitas sektor manufaktur dan jasa-jasa lapis-atas.37 Walau pertumbuhan produktivitas manufaktur mengalami penurunan tajam pada dekade yang lalu, rata-rata produktivitas pekerja pada industri manufaktur secara konsisten lima kali lebih besar dibanding produktivitas pada pertanian.38 Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa penciptaan lapangan kerja pada manufaktur dan jasa-jasa tingkat tinggi merupakan resep utama dalam meningkatkan produktivitas dan menurunkan kerentanan di Indonesia. c. Prioritas kebijakan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan produktivitas: pertama, infrastruktur Terdapat tiga bidang Laporan “Indonesia: Menghindari Perangkap” mengidentifikasikan tiga bidang prioritas yang diprioritaskan: untuk memacu pertumbuhan yang didorong oleh produktivitas: (i) menutup celah infrastruktur, keahlian infrastruktur; (ii) menutup celah keahlian, dan (iii) meningkatkan fungsi produk, pasar modal dan peningkatan dan tenaga kerja. Ketiga prioritas itu telah ada dan diketahui sejak lama, namun kemajuan fungsi pasar penanganannya tidak tersebar merataselama ini. Pengambilan kebijakan yang terlalu terdesentralisasi sejak awal tahun 2000an telah memperumit dan memperlambat penerapannya, terutama dalam pembangunan infrastruktur dan fungsi pasar tenaga kerja (seperti penetapan upah minimum). Namun demikian terdapat sejumlah kecil kebijakan yang dapat membawa pengaruh besar pada masing-masing bidang yang diprioritaskan tersebut. 37 Namun persyaratan keterampilan untuk dapat masuk ke sektor jasa yang tinggi juga lebih tinggi, menunjukkan bahwa kesempatan untuk penciptaan pekerjaan dalam manufaktur sesungguhnya jauh lebih besar dengan rata-rata tingkat keterampilan yang ada pada angkatan kerja. 38 Pada dekade yang lalu, pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja pada pertanian mencatat peningkatan (didorong oleh karet, minyak sawit, kopi dan the) sementara pertumbuhan pada manufaktur turun hampir mencapai nol. Penurunan paling tajam dalam pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja terjadi pada bidang pertambangan dan penggalian. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 43 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Peningkatan kualitas Peningkatan kualitas belanja publik akan menjadi sangat penting bagi pembangunan belanja publik infrastruktur dan penyampaian layanan infrastruktur di Indonesia.39 Jumlah investasi menjadi sangat infrastruktur—yaitu investasi oleh pemerintah pusat, pemerintah daerah, BUMN dan sektor penting dalam swasta—secara konsisten hanya mencapai 3 persen hingga 4 persen dari PDB selama dekade menangani kebutuhan yang lalu (Gambar 36). Investasi itu jauh di bawah rata-rata di atas 7 persen dari PDB infrastruktur Indonesia sebelum krisis keuangan Asia tahun 1997, dan masing-masing sebesar 10 persen dan 7,5 persen yang tercatat untuk Cina dan India. Peningkatan belanja infrastruktur, baik untuk investasi baru dan juga yang penting untuk operasi dan pemeliharaan, bergantung pada peningkatan kualitas belanja publik pada tingkat pemerintahan pusat dan daerah. Reformasi subsidi Pada tingkat pemerintah pusat, pengeluaran yang besar untuk subsidi BBM (2,6 persen dari BBM akan sangat PDB dan 21 persen dari anggaran pemerintah pusat setelah transfer ke daerah dan membantu pembayaran bunga) hampir mencapai dua kali lipat pengeluaran untuk infrastruktur, yang memperbaiki kualitas hanya mencapai 1 persen dari PDB. Peningkatan kualitas belanja dapat sangat terbantu belanja negara dengan reformasi subsidi BBM. Peningkatan belanja pemerintah untuk infrastruktur sebesar lebih dari dua kali lipat (dari 2,5 persen dari PDB) dapat berasal dari penurunan subsidi energi. Alokasi ulang apapun seperti itu harus dilengkapi dengan peningkatan lanjutan dalam bidang perencanaan dan pelaksanaan anggaran sehingga dapat meningkatkan kapasitas penyerapan dan menjamin kualitas manajemen dan implementasi investasi infrastruktur. Pemerintah daerah Pemerintah daerah mencatat belanja yang lebih besar dari pemerintah pusat (1,5 persen dari harus diberi insentif PDB dibanding 1 persen dari PDB). Namun belanja pemerintah daerah dapat mencatat untuk menekan belanja belanja yang jauh lebih besar lagi untuk meningkatkan infrastruktur jalan-jalan, air dan pegawai dan di saat sanitasi dan kesehatan (baik investasi baru maupun pemeliharaan) jika anggaran mereka tidak yang sama terikat oleh pengeluaran yang berlebihan bagi pegawai dan bila mereka dapat mengumpulkan meningkatkan lebih banyak penerimaan oleh mereka sendiri. Lebih dari 40 persen belanja pemerintah kelompok belanja daerah dihabiskan untuk pegawai. Sementara, sekitar 90 persen dari anggaran mereka berasal infrastruktur dari pemerintah pusat (transfer fiskal). Peningkatan sistem transfer fiskal untuk memberi insentif kepada pengalokasian ulang belanja yang lebih besar kepada infrastruktur membutuhkan pergeseran cara ke suatu bentuk tranfer yang berdasarkan kinerja dan meningkatkan bagian transfer yang terikat kepada belanja pada sektor-sektor atau bidang- bidang yang menjadi prioritas nasional.40 Bagi kotamadya yang memenuhi kriteria kehati- hatian fiskal dan risiko fidusia, sarana pembiayaan alternatif dapat didorong, seperti KPS, obligasi kotamadya dan pembiayaan perantara. Empat reformasi Untuk meningkatkan efektivitas peningkatan belanja dalam menyusutkan celah infrastruktur, pelengkap lainnya juga reformasi-reformasi pelengkap berikut akan diperlukan: (i) koordinasi yang kuat di dalam dibutuhkan untuk pemerintah pusat dan antar tingkatan pemerintahan; (ii) reformasi proses perusahaan fasilitas memperkecil celah publik (seperti listrik, air dan gas) pemerintah dan BUMN dalam meningkatkan pemilihan infrastruktur dan perencanaan proyek; (iii) implementasi yang efektif dari UU pertanahan yang baru; dan (iv) kemitraan yang kuat dengan investor swasta dalam dan luar negeri untuk menjembatani celah pembiayaan. 39 Pembangunan infrastruktur tidak hanya tentang dana. Pembebasan tanah, koordinasi antara tingkatan pemerintahan yang berbeda dan proses pemilihan proyek masing-masing merupakan kendala yang sama pentingnya. Pemerintah telah menyadari hal ini dan sedang berusaha menangani setiap masalah itu. Sebagai contoh suatu RUU pertanahan yang baru sedang dibahas di DPR. RUU pertanahan ini diperkirakan akan memfasilitasi akses kepada tanah untuk kepentingan umum. 40 Transfer fiskal kepada pemerintah daerah didominasi oleh komponen “dana alokasi umum” (DAU) dibanding transfer untuk alokasi khusus. DAU tidak terikat, sehingga memfasilitasi pengeluaran pegawai yang terlalu besar di daerah, yang menyisakan hanya sedikit ruang bagi transfer yang dapat terikat pada jajaran pemberi layanan di gugus depan. Pada tahun 2012, bagian DAU hampir mencapai 60 persen dari transfer pemerintah pusat kepada pemerintah daerah. Dana alokasi khusus (DAK) kepada daerah-daerah tertentu yang bertujuan untuk mendanai kegiatan khusus di daerah tersebut sesuai dengan prioritas nasional hanya mencapai 6 persen dari transfer-transfer tersebut dan terlalu terpecah (mencakup terlalu banyak sektor). M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 44 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Hasil dari peningkatan Hasil yang didapat dari pertumbuhan yang berasal dari peningkatan investasi di infrastruktur investasi infrastruktur sangatlah besar. Karenanya, lemahnya investasi infrastruktur telah menjadi beban yang besar dalam hal peningkatan terhadap pertumbuhan Indonesia selama satu dakade ke belakang.41 Konsekuensi dari pertumbuhan dan lemahnya pertumbuhan modal untuk sektor infrastruktur relatif terhadap laju pertumbuhan akses layanan yang ekonomi dan laju pertumbuhan urbanisasi telah mengakibatkan terjadinya celah kapasitas lebih baik bersifat yang cukup serius. Hal ini juga telah berkontribusi bagi munculnya masalah kemacetan dan signifikan buruknya kinerja logistik yang menjadi kendala pertumbuhan produktivitas. Penelitian pada beberapa perusahaan manufaktur di Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan transportasi masuk di dalam kendala usaha yang terburuk bagi perusahaan manufaktur perkotaan. Hal yang sama juga telah menyebabkan para produsen di pedesaan tidak mampu bersaing dengan produk impor di daerah-daerah perkotaan. Maka dalam hal ini semakin jelas bahwa pembangunan infrastruktur sebagai penghubung dapat membantu mendorong terjadinya aglomerasi ekonomi di daerah-daerah perkotaan dan mendukung realisasi potensi pertumbuhan dan produktivitas di sektor pertanian, industri pedesaan non- pertanian dan sektor manufaktur perkotaan. Selain itu, karena seperempat penduduk perkotaan dan lebih dari setengah penduduk pedesaan memiliki akses yang buruk ke layanan transportasi, peningkatan infrastruktur merupakan kunci utama dalam meningkatkan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan sosial secara keseluruhan di Indonesia. d. Prioritas kebijakan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan produktivitas: kedua, keahlian Indonesia harus Meningkatkan kualitas pendidikan dan fungsi pusat-pusat pelatihan menjadi sangat penting meningkatkan kualitas dalam rangka menutup celah keahlian di Indonesia. Saat ini, dua per tiga perusahaan pendidikan dan fungsi mengakui mengalami kesulitan dalam menemukan pegawai yang tepat untuk posisi-posisi pusat pelatihan jika managerial dan profesional (perusahaan mengaku berada dalam taraf “sulit” atau “sangat ingin menutup celah sulit”); dan hampir 70 persen pemilik perusahaan dalam bidang manufaktur mengeluhkan keterampilan bahwa “sangat sulit” untuk mengisi posisi-posisi tingkat profesional yang terampil (insinyur). Kesulitan ini kemudian diistilahkan sebagai masalah ketidaksesuaian dalam ketenaga-kerjaan. Terdapat dua jenis ketidaksesuaian. Sejumlah sektor melaporkan tidak cukupnya lulusan pendidikan sebagai alasan (sebagai contoh, dalam tekstil), sementara sektor-sektor lain mengeluhkan akan keahlian lulusan yang ada (sebagai contoh, dalam bidang karet dan plastik). Sementara itu, adanya keluhan mengenai lebih sedikitnya tawaran pelatihan kepada pegawai dari perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia dibanding dengan negara-negara lain di wilayah yang sama. Sebagian besar lembaga pelatihan terkonsentrasi pada bidang-bidang dengan nilai tambah yang rendah (seperti keterampilan salon kecantikan dan spa dan keterampilan dasar-dasar komputer). Akhirnya, dalam kemampuan akademis dasar, taraf Indonesia tidaklah menggembirakan baik dibandingkan dengan negara-negara berpenghasilan rendah lainnya dan negara-negara tetangganya di Asia Timur, terutama dalam penilaian kemampuan pelajar internasional seperti PISA. Sebagai contoh, pelajar usia 15 tahun di Indonesia memiliki tingkat pengetahuan yang jauh di bawah rekan-rekannya dari Vietnam, walau Indonesia memiliki pendapatan per kapita yang lebih tinggi. 41Jika persediaan modal infrastruktur riil Indonesia meningkat sebesar 5 persen per tahun pada 2001- 11 dibanding laju pertumbuhan aktuil sebesar 3 persen, diperkirakan bahwa pertumbuhan riil PDB tahunan akan lebih besar sebanyak 0.5 poin persentase. Lihat Triwulanan edisi bulan Oktober 2013 untuk rincian lebih lanjut. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 45 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Indonesia mencatat Kebijakan publik sejauh ini memfokuskan kepada akses terhadap pendidikan dan kemajuan yang pendaftaran murid. Berkat komitmen pemerintah Indonesia yang kuat, Indonesia tampaknya signifikan dalam akan menjadi salah satu negara dengan jumlah murid berpendidikan tinggi terbesar di dunia meningkatkan akses di kemudian hari.42 Selama lima tahun terakhir, angkatan kerja dengan tingkat pendidikan pendidikan dan tingkat tersier dan sekunder telah meningkat masing-masing lebih dari 1 juta jiwa dan lebih dari 2 pendaftaran murid juta per tahun. Jika tren-tren terakhir dalam pendaftaran murid terus berlanjut, jumlah penduduk Indonesia dengan pendidikan tinggi dapat meningkat lebih dari dua kali lipat pada dekade yang akan datang.43 Kini Indonesia harus Karenanya, fokus ke depan adalah pada pembekalan lulusan pendidikan dan pekerja dengan memfokuskan kepada keterampilan teknis yang tepat dan perilaku yang dibutuhkan oleh perusahaan (baik itu dari tiga strategi untuk sisi kedisiplinan, keandalan, kerjasama dan kepemimpinan) untuk mendukung/ meningkatkan memungkinkan investasi yang besar dalam sektor-sektor utama seperti manufaktur. Hal ini keterampilan angkatan membutuhkan strategi reformasi di tiga hal. Pertama, meningkatkan kualitas pendidikan kerja dasar dalam rangka membangun dasar keterampilan kognitif yang lebih kuat yang dibutuhkan untuk mendapatkan keterampilan dengan tingkat yang lebih tinggi yang dibutuhkan angkatan kerja. Satu langkah penting yang dapat mendukung hal ini adalah dengan penguatan sistem penjaminan kualitas pendidikan. Hal ini dilakukan untuk memastikan bahwa penilaian kualitas memperoleh tindak lanjut dan lembaga-lembaga pendidikan mendapat insentif untuk melaksanakan tindakan-tindakan perbaikan. Namun sangat penting Namun bahkan apabila sistem pendidikan dapat disempurnakan secara seketika, para lulusan untuk menemukan awal baru akan masuk ke angkatan kerja 10-20 tahun lagi. Sehingga sangatlah penting untuk solusi jangka pendek menemukan solusi jangka pendek dan menengah bagi kendala keahlian yang ada: dengan dan menengah untuk demikian hal kedua dan ketiga dari strategi ini adalah meningkatkan relevansi mereka yang menutup celah akan masuk ke pasar tenaga kerja (pendidikan kejuruan dan teknis, dan pendidikan tersier) keterampilan dan meningkatkan keterampilan dari angkatan kerja yang ada (reformasi sistem pelatihan). Meningkatkan relevansi pendidikan tersier dan kejuruan membutuhkan (i) keterbukaan informasi yang lebih besar kepada murid dan lulusan tentang kesempatan pada pasar tenaga kerja, dan (ii) memperbaiki sistem yang ada agar lebih resposif pada kebutuhan pasar. Sistem pelatihan di sisi lain akan menunjang perekonomian dengan lebih baik bila lebih banyak dibentuknya lembaga-lembaga pelatihan yang menawarkan materi pelatihan yang lebih relevan dan keterampilan yang spesifik pada sektor-sektor strategis dengan nilai tambah yang lebih tinggi (seperti tekstil, produk makanan dan cabang-cabang manufaktur utama lainnya). Pengembangan Pertumbuhan yang berasal dari perkembangan tingkat keterampilan / keahlian menawarkan keterampilan akan hasil pertumbuhan yang besar, walau sulit untuk dikuantisir. Karena lebih dari 60 persen membantu Indonesia perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia melaporkan bahwa keterampilan adalah suatu kendala. memenuhi permintaan Maka mengurangi kendala yang ada akan sangat membantu perusahaan-perusahaan dalam dari kelas menengah mengembangkan dirinya dan meningkatkan daya saingnya. Hal ini dapat meningkatkan yang makin tinggi dan pertumbuhan dan produktivitas agregat melalui pertumbuhan produktivitas sektoral juga menghadapi (misalnya bila para pekerja di manufaktur memperoleh lebih banyak keterampilan) dan/atau persaingan pergerakan tenaga kerja dari jasa level bawah ke sektor manufaktur (lihat di atas). Pengembangan keahlian juga akan membantu Indonesia untuk memanfaatkan berbagai kesempatan yang muncul dari semakin tingginya kemampuan permintaan dari kelas menengah dan juga dalam upaya untuk berkompetisi dari persaingan mitra-mitra Indonesia di ASEAN. Tanpa keterampilan yang tepat di antara mereka yang masuk ke angkatan kerja, produk impor dapat selalu menjadi lebih kompetitif dibanding dengan produksi dalam negeri dalam hal pemenuhan permintaan akan produk-produk dan layanan yang berkualitas lebih tinggi yang dilakukan oleh kelas menengah Indonesia yang saat ini jumlahnya terus meningkat. 42 Komitmen ini tercantum dalam mandat UUD bahwa 20 persen APBN harus dialokasikan untuk pendidikan. 43 Sasaran Pemerintah adalah memberikan akses universal kepada pendidikan menengah atas melalui wajib belajar 12 tahun dan meningkatkan pendaftaran murid ke pendidikan yang lebih tinggi sebanyak dua kali lipat pada tahun 2020. Bagian individu dengan pendidikan tersier pada angkatan kerja mencapai 8 persen pada tahun 2012. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 46 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Gambar 36: Dibutuhkan lebih banyak belanja dengan Gambar 37: Indonesia menghadapi tantangan dalam kualitas yang lebih tinggi untuk menutup kesenjangan meningkatkan keahlian di dalam angkatan kerjanya infrastruktur… (komposisi pendidikan angkatan kerja, persen) (belanja infrastruktur sebagai bagian dari PDB, persen) 10 Primary or less Secondary Tertiary 8 Average (1995-97) Average (2008-11) Korea Rep 6 Singapore 4 Phillippines 2 Malaysia 0 Thailand Indonesia Cambodia 0 50 100 Sumber: Bank Dunia Catatan: Kamboja (2011), India (2010), Indonesia (2008), Malaysia (2010), Filipina (2008), Singapura (2011), Thailand (2011), Republik Korea(2007) Sumber: Statistik Pendidikan Bank Dunia e. Prioritas kebijakan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan produktivitas: ketiga, pasar Indonesia harus Mendorong investasi dan aliran talenta dalam manufaktur dan sektor-sektor dengan meningkatkan kualitas produktivitas yang tinggi lain di Indonesia—yang sangat penting bagi transformasi strategi produksinya, tenaga yang cepat—membutuhkan peningkatan fungsi pasar produk, tenaga kerja, modal dan kerja, serta fungsi tanah.44 Walau Indonesia menerapkan reformasi untuk mendukung investasi dan perizinan modal dan sistem pada sejumlah sektor, peraturan perundang-undangan yang mengatur perilaku usaha di pertanahannya jika banyak sektor dalam beberapa tahun terakhir telah mengirimkan sinyal-sinyal yang bermaksud mencapai membingungkan kepada para investor, dan secara tak langsung telah meningkatkan transformasi struktural ketidakpastian bagi usaha. Sebagai contoh, sejumlah UU dan langkah-langkah yang spesifik yang cepat sektor yang baru diumumkan bersifat tidak konsisten dengan UU yang lalu atau menciptakan kebingungan tentang arah dari reformasi (misalnya konflik antara UU hortikultura dan UU investasi). Pada sektor pertambangan, terlepas dari bagaimana peraturan baru yang melarang ekspor bijih mineral pada akhirnya akan diterapkan, perubahan kebijakan yang berulang- ulang telah meningkatkan ketidakpastian (seperti disoroti pada bagian sebelumnya). UU industri dan perdagangan yang baru memberikan kementerian yang terkait kewenangan untuk melakukan intervensi pasar, sehingga meningkatkan ketidakpastian sekaligus mempertinggi resiko biaya menjalankan usaha. Penguatan kualitas Urgensi di iklim berinvestasi adalah menjawab sejumlah ketidakpastian yang tercipta karena pembentukan suatu peraturan perundangan yang belakangan ditetapkandengan melakukan penguatan kualitas kebijakan akan sangat proses penyusunan kebijakan dan peraturan ekonomi. Sejumlah negara melakukan hal ini membantu dengan memberdayakan kementerian dan lembaga negara untuk menjalankan fungsi meningkatkan iklim “penyelidik kebijakan.” Proses penyusunan kebijakan yang terpadu dan diperkuat seharusnya investasi membantu terjaminnya pembinaan persaingan pasar dan membatasi adanya tindakan anti- persaingan. Kebijakan juga harusnya menjamin terciptanya sebuah iklim yang mendukung aliran masuk FDI dan memperkuat pengetahuan dan teknologi yang strategis (frontier technology). Dan tentu saja kebijakan seharusnya dapat mengakomodir manfaat-manfaat potensial yang dapat dibawanya. Penyusunan kebijakan yang diperkuat juga harus dapat 44Pasar tanah juga sangat penting bagi investasi pemerintah dan swasta. Suatu UU pertanahan yang komprehensif, yang kini sedang dibahas di DPR, diperkirakan akan menjawab sejumlah masalah- masalah utama yang telah menghambat investasi pada beberapa tahun terakhir. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 47 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia secara lebih baik menjawab keprihatinan penduduk Indonesia yang secara sungguh-sungguh memberikan perlindungan kepada kepentingan umum. Di saat yang sama Pemerintah juga merupaya untuk menekan terjadinya kegiatan mengambil untung sesaat(rent-seeking) dan menghindari terjadinya kepentingan usaha yang terkonsentarsi. Semua ini menjadi lebih penting dengan buruknya peringkat pengadilan, pemerintah daerah dan politisi Indonesia di dalam indeks persepsi korupsi (sebagai contoh, lembaga Transparency International pada tahun 2012 memberi peringkat nomor 100 untuk Indonesia dari 183 negara yang diteliti). Revisi atas UU tenaga Upaya-upaya penyempurnaan yang berguna untuk mengklarifikasi aturan-aturan perilaku kerjaakan sangat usaha akan berupa langkah-langkah untuk memperbaiki fungsi pasar tenaga kerja dan modal. membantu Pasar tenaga kerja Indonesia mencerminkan gambaran pekerja terlindung-tidak terlindung, transformasi struktural dengan sebagian kecil pekerja pada sektor formal yang terlindungi dan sebagian besar pekerja Indonesia. Diantaranya yang terpaksa bekerja di sektor informal. Kesenjangan ini mencerminkan tingkatan dengan membuat UU perlindungan pegawai yang serupa disejumlah negara-negara Eropa (seperti tingginya tingkat yang ada menjadi lebih uang pesangon) dan peraturan upah minimum yang relatif tinggi. Selain itu, proses fleksibel dan inklusif penetapan upah minimum telah menjadi tidak pasti pada beberapa tahun terakhir walau pengumuman rumusan baru dengan menggunakan indeks inflasi IHK dapat membantu menjawab ketidakpastian itu.45 Walau peraturan perundangan tenaga kerja tidak berlaku untuk kebanyakan pekerja (karena terdapat banyak opsi pengecualian yang dapat digunakan oleh pemilik perusahaan dan terbatasnya kemampuan penegakan Pemerintah), peraturan itu menghalangi pertumbuhan produktivitas dan transformasi struktural. Sebagai contoh, masuknya para pekerja ke sektor yang sepenuhnya formal dibatasi oleh keputusan penerimaan pegawai yang dibuat oleh pemilik perusahaan karena tingginya potensi biaya saat memberhentikan pegawai di sektor tersebut. Akibatnya sebagian besar pekerja di Indonesia adalah pekerja non-formal atau semi-formal, bekerja dalam kontrak jangka pendek dan tidak dilatih sebagai aset jangka panjang bagi perusahaan. Karenanya, para pekerja yang berangkat dari, misalnya, pekerjaan di bidang pertanian atau kegiatan bukan pertanian di pedesaan, akan selalu terperangkap dalam sektor yang sedikit lebih tinggi namun tetap dengan produktivitas yang rendah dan tanpa perpindahan sosial yang signifikan. Amandemen UU tenaga kerja akan sangat mendukung pencapaian sasaran-sasaran transformasi struktural Indonesia , untuk membuat kondisi ketenaga kerjaan di Indoensia menjadi lebih fleksibel dan inklusif. Amandemen seperti itu membutuhkan kesepakatan antara pemilik perusahaan, pekerja dan Pemerintah. Senada dengan itu, penggunaan rumus penetapan upah minimum yang baru yang berdasarkan atas inflasi dan produktivitas dari para pihak di atas akan mendukung daya saing dan pekerjaan. Sementara itu, tipisnya Dalam kaitannya dengan pasar modal, terdapat banyak bukti yang menunjukkan bahwa pasar modal Indonesia perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia terkendala kredit (IMF, 2012)46. Sebagian besar merintangi pengadaan perusahaan-perusahaan cenderung lebih mengandalkan laba ditahan dibanding kredit bank pembiayaan investasi untuk memperluas usahanya, yang pada gilirannya berarti bahwa aliran kas lancar menjadi baru faktor penting dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi. Hal ini membawa implikasi yang signifikan akan jenis-jenis investasi yang ada di dalam perekonomian, terutama pada perusahaan-perusahaan inovatif yang umumnya memiliki aliran kas yang negatif pada tahap- tahap awal operasinya, dan membutuhkan pembiayaan dari bank dan non-bank untuk bertumbuh dan menciptakan pekerjaan-pekerjaan yang berkualitas tinggi. 45 Proses penetapan upah minimum adalah proses yang rumit. Negosiasi dan kesepakatan akhir dibuat pada tingkat propinsi dan sektoral (dan seringkali pada tingkat kabupaten dan sub-sektor), yang mempersulit komunikasi dan ketaatan dengan penyesuaian yang berdasarkan rumus yang baru. Secara lebih umum, memastikan kepatuhan perusahaan-perusahaan dan pemberi pekerjaan kepada peraturan upah minimum tidaklah mudah, dan membutuhkan pemantauan dan koordinasi pada tingkat pusat, antara Kementerian Tenaga Kerja dan kementerian-kementerian yang relevan agar mencapai implementasi yang efektif, dan juga antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah dan para pelaku yang relevan (kepala daerah dan dewan upah). 46 IMF, Indonesia: Selected Issues, “What determines investment in Indonesia”, September 2012 M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 48 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Kendala kredit yang dihadapi oleh perusahaan-perusahaan mencerminkan dangkalnya pasar finansial Indonesia. Sektor finansial didominasi oleh bank-bank (yang menguasai 78 persen aset) dan pengelolaannya hanya sekitar 35 persen, dibanding hampir 100 persen secara rata- rata bagi Malaysia, Thailand dan Filipina. Pasar modal memiliki sekuritas hutang (beredar) korporat dalam negeri yang tipis dengan jumlah kurang dari 5 persen dari PDB, setara dengan Thailand dan Filipina namun jauh lebih rendah dibanding 45 persen di Malaysia. Aset-aset dana pensiun juga relatif rendah dibanding ukuran ekonomi (5 persen dibanding 10 persen-15 persen pada Filipina dan Thailand dan 40 persen di Malaysia). Meningkatkan sistem Sebagian kedangkalan pasar finansial Indonesia akan sulit untuk diatasi karena merupakan legal akan cerminan dari perilaku penghindaran risiko yang kuat. Sebagai contoh, setelah krisis finansial memfasilitasi operasi tahun 1997-98, para penabung dan investor bergerak pada bagian ujung jatuh tempo yang pasar dan perantara lebih pendek. Asuransi, dana investasi dan penerbitan obligasi korporasi, misalnya, telah meningkat pada beberapa tahun terakhir namun masih belum memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan terhadap kelompok simpanan dan investasi jangka panjang dalam negeri.47 Kebijakan publik dapat mendorong sistem menuju kedalaman finansial yang lebih. Sebagai contoh, perkembangan pasar obligasi korporasi tampaknya secara khusus dibatasi oleh persyaratan investasi yang ketat, tingginya biaya penjaminan emisi (underwriting) dan lemahnya pelaksanaan negara. Selain itu, contoh-contoh di negara lainnya menekankan peran pembangunan sistem hukum yang terpercaya yang memungkinkan penegakan kontrak dan hak milik yang efektif dan memberikan perlindungan bagi investor. Kontrak-kontrak finansial ditetapkan dan dibuat lebih atau kurang efektif oleh hak-hak hukum dan mekanisme penegakan. Dari sudut pandang ini, peningkatan sistem hukum Indonesia akan memfasilitasi operasi pasar dan para perantaranya. Hal ini berkaitan dengan peningkatan kualitas lingkungan usaha secara lebih luas, karena para pelaku sektor finansial, dan juga para investor itu sendiri, membutuhkan tingkat kepastian minimum ketika membuat keputusan pembiayaan jangka panjang. f. Prioritas kebijakan untuk memastikan pemerataan kesejahteraan yang lebih luas Dibutuhkan kebijakan Tantangan kebijakan publik Indonesia tidak hanya untuk mendukung kebijakan-kebijakan untuk memastikan yang menghasilkan kesejahteraan. Tantangan lain yang dihadapi oleh para penyusun pemerataan kebijakan adalah meningkatkan pemerataan kesejahteraan secara lebih luas. Sesungguhnya, kesejahteraan yang sejumlah besar rumah tangga yang digolongkan sebagai tidak miskin secara pendapatan/ lebih luas konsumsi sebetulnya kekurangan dalam banyak segi lainnya, termasuk akses yang layak ke perumahan, transportasi, air bersih, sanitasi dan pendidikan. Pada saat yang bersamaan, walau dengan keberhasilan Indonesia dalam pengentasan kemiskinan, penurunan laju pengentasan tersebut pada beberapa tahun terakhir dan tingginya kerentanan masih tetap menguatirkan. Akhirnya, hasil pengentasan kemiskinan Indonesia yang penuh dengan perjuangan selalu berada di bawah ancaman, karena kerawanan Indonesia terhadap bencana alam seperti gempa bumi, tsunami, letusan gunung berapi, banjir, tanah longsor dan kebakaran hutan. Bagian akhir dari laporan “Indonesia: Menghindari Perangkap” membahas tiga bidang prioritas utama untuk menjawab tantangan-tantangan tersebut. Akses kepada layanan Bagi kaum miskin, lemah dan beberapa yang berada pada kelas menengah, pendapatan dan utama perlu kesejahteraan yang lebih tinggi tidak sepenuhnya meningkatkan standar hidup jika akses ditingkatkan kepada layanan-layanan utama tidak ditingkatkan. Harapan-harapan yang ditempatkan pada reformasi desentralisasi dalam meningkatkan layanan publik belum terwujud dan akan dibutuhkan reformasi yang lebih tegas untuk meningkatkan penyampaian layanan. Pilihan reformasi yang diprioritaskan adalah: (i) klarifikasi misi-misi, fokus ulang birokrasi agar bertanggung jawab atas hasil-hasil; (ii) memberikan lebih banyak sumber daya kepada layanan gugus depan dan mengurangi sumber daya bagi pegawai dan administrasi, yang membutuhkan amandemen kepada sistem transfer pemerintah pusat untuk meningkatkan bagian anggaran pemerintah daerah yang terikat kepada sektor-sektor dan prestasi-prestasi 47Bagian yang signifikan dari penabung dengan kekayaan yang besar telah memilih untuk menempatkan kekayaan mereka di luar negeri melalui perantara. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 49 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia tertentu; dan (iii) meningkatkan program-program yang didorong oleh komunitas dan akuntabilitas sisi permintaan melalui kemitraan yang lebih kuat dengan agen-agen perubahan pada tingkat desa. Penguatan Sistem jaminan sosial Indonesia akan mengalami transformasi yang signifikan. perlindungan sosial Sesungguhnya, jaminan sosial secara universal telah dimandatkan secara hukum bagi bidang membutuhkan kesehatan (pada tahun 2014) dan pekerjaan (pada tahun 2015) menurut UU Sistem Jaminan kepemimpinan yang Sosial Nasional tahun 2004 dan UU Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial tahun 2011. kuat bagi Apakah hasil yang dikehendaki dapat tercapai akan sangat bergantung kepada kualitas implementasi yang penerapannya. Agar dapat efektif dan berkelanjutan, sistem itu akan membutuhkan tingkat efektif manfaat yang memadai, pengelolaan risiko fiskal yang sehat, manajemen dan pengembangan kelembagaan yang baik, dan cakupan kaum miskin dan lemah yang bebas iuran, sementara pada saat yang bersamaan memungut iuran dari mereka yang mampu membayar. Namun hal yang paling dibutuhkan oleh reformasi yang transformatif ini adalah kepemimpinan yang kuat bagi implementasi yang efektif karena besarnya jumlah pemangku kepentingan dengan kepentingan yang berbeda dan potensi dampak yang signifikan terhadap anggaran negara dan ekonomi makro. Pemerintah harus Bersama-sama dengan jaminan sosial, memperkuat program-program bantuan sosial yang melanjutkan upayanya telah ada merupakan komponen lain yang sangat penting dalam kerangka jaminan sosial untuk menyingkirkan Indonesia yang menyeluruh. Indonesia harus melakukan reformasi pada program-program fragmentasi dan yang ada, mengisi kesenjangan yang ada, dan memadukan program-program tersebut duplikasi lintas menjadi suatu sistem. Sekali lagi, kepemimpinan dan koordinasi akan menjadi hal yang program-program penting. Belanja pemerintah pusat kini terbagi ke sekitar 12 kementerian, 22 program dan 87 kegiatan. Untuk memastikan bahwa layanan disampaikan secara tepat, Pemerintah harus melanjutkan upayanya dalam menyingkirkan fragmentasi dan duplikasi pada program- program. Pengawasan dan koordinasi di bawah Tim Nasional Percepatan Penanggulangan Kemiskinan (TNP2K) memainkan peran yang vital dalam merancang strategi bantuan kemiskinan, memadukan program-program kemiskinan dan koordinasi implementasi dengan berbagai kementerian. Menuju ke depan, sangat penting untuk menjaga pengawasan gabungan dan koordinasi teladan bagi implementasi yang efektif. Menjaga pengentasan Indonesia terletak di salah satu zona bencana yang paling aktif di dunia, yang rawan terhadap kemiskinan gempa bumi, tsunami, letusan gunung berapi, banjir, tanah longsor dan kebakaran hutan. membutuhkan Selama urbanisasi yang cepat pada beberapa dekade, ketidakpatuhan kepada peraturan manajemen risiko- bangunan dan aturan tata wilayah, dan pendudukan ruang-ruang “terbuka” yang sebetulnya risiko bencana… ditujukan untuk drainase, tidak hanya membuat kota-kota Indonesia menjadi lebih rawan terhadap bencana alam namun juga menciptakan ancaman-ancaman baru seperti banjir dan banjir air laut pada daerah-daerah pesisir yang rendah. Penurunan ketinggian tanah yang didorong oleh urbanisasi merupakan ancaman yang lebih besar bagi Jakarta dibanding perubahan iklim yang berkaitan dengan peningkatan permukaan air laut. Penjagaan hasil pengentasan kemiskinan yang dicapai dengan penuh perjuangan di Indonesia membutuhkan peningkatan berkelanjutan dalam manajemen risiko-risiko bencana dan pembangunan ketahanan yang lebih tinggi. …dan implementasi Tiga pilihan reformasi yang diprioritaskan dapat digunakan untuk meningkatkan ketahanan reformasi kebijakan terhadap bencana, termasuk (i) program nasional tentang penetapan wilayah bahaya untuk mendorong berukuran mikro dengan instrumen-instrumen yang mendetil untuk menyertakan ketahanan ketahanan terhadap ke dalam rancangan situs dan standar-standar konstruksi pembangunan; (ii) kerangka bencana pembiayaan bagi pembangunan daerah perkotaan, perumahan dan properti yang memberi insentif kepada investasi yang mengandung faktor ketahanan yang terkait dengan asuransi bencana; dan (iii) suatu program nasional untuk peningkatan daerah perkotaan dan rehabilitasi ekosistem untuk meningkatkan ketahanan pemukiman dan infrastruktur perkotaan yang telah ada. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 50 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia g. Taruhan yang tinggi: hasil jika melakukan reformasi dan kerugian bila tidak melakukannya Jika Indonesia dapat Biaya tidak melakukan reformasi sama tingginya dengan potensi manfaat yang diterima bila bertumbuh 6,5 persen melaksanakan reformasi dengan baik. Pertama, penduduk yang berusia kerja diproyeksikan per tahun maka 12,4 akan meningkat secara signifikan pada 10 tahun ke depan sebelum mencapai puncaknya juta pekerjaan baru sebagai bagian dari jumlah penduduk sekitar tahun 2025. Sebagian besar dari tambahan 14,8 akan tercipta di tahun juta jiwa yang akan masuk menjadi penduduk pada usia kerja pada tahun 2020 akan mencari 2020 pekerjaan dan akan dibutuhkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat untuk dapat menyerap mereka. Berdasarkan sensitivitas pekerjaan terhadap pertumbuhan pada periode tahun 1990- 2012, jika Indonesia bertumbuh sebesar 6,5 persen per tahun maka akan tercipta 12,4 juta pekerjaan baru pada tahun 2020. Bila laju pertumbuhan Indonesia hanya mencapai 5,0 persen per tahun, maka hanya 10,2 juta pekerjaan baru yang akan tercipta pada tahun 2020. Karenanya, perbedaan antara bertumbuh sebesar 5,0 persen dan 6,5 persen adalah 2,2 juta pekerjaan selama periode delapan tahun, yang merupakan jumlah yang signifikan. Dibutuhkan reformasi Dalam jangka yang lebih Gambar 38: Pendapatan per kapita yang dicapai ketika yang serius bila panjang, pertumbuhan bonus demografi berakhir, dibanding Indonesia (2030) Indonesia hendak ekonomi yang lebih cepat (PDB per capita, ribu dolar AS tahun 2012 sebagai konstanta) meningkatkan laju (di atas 5 persen) juga PDB per kapita Asumsi 10% 30 (konstanta dolar AS pertumbuhan pertumbuhannya dan dibutuhkan bila Indonesia tahun 2012) PBD riil 2013- 24 menjawab tantangan hendak memanjat tangga 25 2030 untuk melompat ke ke pendapatan dan 20 Asumsi 6% 20 status negara menempatkan dirinya pertumbuhan 17 14 PDB riil 2013- berpenghasilan tinggi menjadi ekonomi 15 12 2030 pada dekade-dekade berpenghasilan tinggi pada 10 9 mendatang dua dekade mendatang. 5 Agar Indonesia dapat 1982 1970 2000 1991 2030 2030 mencapai status 0 berpenghasilan tinggi pada tahun 2030—yaitu dengan pendapatan per kapita sebesar 12.000 dolar AS— maka Indonesia harus Catatan: Tahun menunjukkan perkiraan berakhirnya periode mencatat pertumbuhan dividen demografis sebesar 9 persen per tahun Sumber: Bank Dunia pada 16 tahun ke depan.48 Pada tingkat pertumbuhan yang sangat tinggi itu, pertumbuhan setidaknya harus di atas kecenderungan pertumbuhan yang ada sekarang yaitu di level 5 persen-6 persen. Hal ini tentunya membutuhkan penetapan posisi negara yang baik untuk menghindari perangkap pendapatan menengah. Pendapatan per kapita di Singapura, Jepang, Korea Selatan dan Hong Kong semuanya telah berada di atas 12.000 dolar AS ketika populasi negara-negara itu mulai menua (Gambar 38). Indonesiamembutuhkan pertumbuhan yang sangat cepat untuk mencapai hal itu. Kabar baiknya, Indonesia tentu mampu melakukannya, namun semua ini membutuhkan reformasi-reformasi yang serius. 48 Menggunakan konstanta dolar AS tahun 2013. M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 51 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia LAMPIRAN: INDIKATOR GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA Lampiran Gambar 1: Pertumbuhan PDB Lampiran Gambar 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB pengeluaran (pertumbuhan PDB riil, persen) (kontribusi pertumbuhan PDB riil qoq, penyesuaian musiman, persen) 4 8.0 Private cons. Gov cons. Investment tahunan (kanan) Net Exports Discrepancy GDP 8 3 6.0 triwulanan penyesuaian 4 2 musiman (kiri) rata-rata (kiri)* 4.0 0 1 2.0 0 0.0 -4 Dec-06 Sep-08 Jun-10 Mar-12 Dec-13 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Catatan: * Rata-rata pertumbuhan Tw-k-Tw Q3 2006 – Q4 2013 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Lampiran Gambar 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB produksi Lampiran Gambar 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil (kontribusi pertumbuhan PDB riil qoq, penyesuaian musiman, persen) (pertumbuhan penjualan dengan penyesuaian musiampenjualan, percent) Agriculture Mining and constr. 80 Manufacturing Comm & transport Trade, hotel & rest Others (inc. services) Mobil 8 60 GDP 40 Cement sales 20 4 0 -20 Sepeda motor 0 -40 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: CEIC Lampiran Gambar 5: Indikator konsumen Lampiran Gambar 6: Indikator produksi industri (indeks) (pertumbuhan yoy, penyesuaian musiman, persen) 180 Percent Percent 40 54 Indeks penjualan ritel BI Penjualanan semen, sa (kiri) 160 53 30 Indeks manufaktur PMI Indeks survey 140 konsumen BI (kanan) 52 20 51 120 10 50 100 49 0 80 48 Indeks produksi manufaktur BPS (kiri) 60 -10 47 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Sumber: BI Sumber: BPS; Markit HSBC Purchasing Manager’s Index M a r et 20 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 52 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 7: Arus volume perdagangan Lampiran Gambar 8: Neraca pembayaran (pertumbuhan yoy, persen) (miliar dolar AS) 20 Capital and financial Current account Errors and omissions Overall BoP inflows 15 15 Impor 10 10 Ekspor 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Sumber: BPS Sumber: BI Lampiran Gambar 9: Ekspor barang Lampiran Gambar 10: Impor barang (rata-rata 3 bulanan, miliar dolar AS) (rata-rata 3 bulanan, miliar dolar AS) 20 20 Total ekspor Total impor 16 16 12 12 Bahan baku (tidak termasuk minyak dan gas) 8 Manufaktur 8 Pertanian dan kehutanan minyak dan gas 4 4 Barang modal Barang Tambang dan mineral minyak dan gas 0 0 konsumsi Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Sumber: BPS Sumber: BPS Lampiran Gambar 11: Cadangan devisa dan arus masuk Lampiran Gambar 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter modal (pertumbuhan month-on-month dan yoy, persen) (miliar dolar AS) 3.5 12.0 150 5.0 Inflasi headline, tahun-ke-tahun Cadangan devisa (kiri) (kanan) 125 2.5 2.5 8.0 Tingkat bunga BI (kanan) 100 0.0 1.5 4.0 Inflasi inti, tahun-ke-tahun 75 -2.5 (kanan) 0.5 0.0 50 -5.0 Aliran masuk portfolio asing (kanan): Equities SUN SBI -0.5 Inflasi headline, bulan-ke-bulan (kiri) -4.0 25 -7.5 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Sumber: BI; CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 53 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 13: Rincian bulanan IHK Lampiran Gambar 14: Perbandingan inflasi beberapa negara (persen kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan bulanan) (yoy, February 2014) 3.6 Core Administered Volatile Headline Korea* USA* 3.0 Japan * 2.4 Thailand 1.8 Singapore * Malaysia * 1.2 Philippines * 0.6 China 0.0 Indonesia India * -0.6 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sumber: BPS; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia *data January Sumber: Biro statistik nasional via CEIC; BPS Lampiran Gambar 15: Harga beras domestik dan Lampiran Gambar 16: Tingkat kemiskinan dan internasional pengangguran (harga di tingkat pedagang besar) (persen) 10,000 60 20 kualitas medium: Tingkat pengangguran (kiri) IR64-II (domestic) Tingkat pengangguran formal (kiri) Thai 100% B 2nd grade (international) 7,500 45 Tingkat kemiskiran 15 (kanan) 30 10 5,000 kualitas rendah: IR64 III (domestic); Thai A1 Super (international) 15 5 2,500 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 solid line: domestic wholesale rice prices 0 0 Dashed: international Thai rice (cif) prices, in Rupiah 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sumber: Pasar Induk Beras Cipinang; FAO; Bank Dunia Sumber: BPS Lampiran Gambar 17: Indeks saham regional Lampiran Gambar 18: Nilai tukar dollar AS (indeks harian January 4 2010=100) (indeks harian, kiri dan rupiah/dolar AS, kanan) 250 75 South Africa SET-Thailand 200 100 Indonesia 150 JCI-Indonesia Brazil SGX-Singapore 125 India 100 BSE-India Apresiasi Shanghai-Cina Turkey 50 150 Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 54 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Gambar 19: Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah 5- Lampiran Gambar 20: Spread obligasi dolar AS pemerintah tahunan dalam mata uang lokal EMBI (harian, persen) (harian, basis poin) 10 475 60 Indonesia spreads less overall EMBIG index spread (kanan) 8 400 0 Indonesia 6 325 -60 4 Philippines Thailand 250 -120 Malaysia 2 175 -180 Indonesia EMBIG bond spread kiri) United States 0 100 -240 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sumber: CEIC; Sumber: JP Morgan; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Lampiran Gambar 21: Pertumbuhan kredit perbankan Lampiran Gambar 22: Indikator sektor perbankan (bulanan, indeks Januari 2009=100) (bulanan, persen) 40 40 100 10 pertumbumbuhan kredit perbankan (kiri) Rasio pinjaman dan deposito-LDR Rasio kredit terhadap (kiri) PDB (kanan) 80 8 30 30 60 6 20 20 Rasio kredit bermasalah -NPL Rasio pengembalian 40 (kanan) 4 aset -ROA (kanan) 10 10 20 2 Rasio kecukupan modal-CAR 0 0 0 0 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Sumber: CEIC; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI Lampiran Gambar 23: Utang pemerintah Lampiran Gambar 24: Utang luar negeri (persentase terhadap PDB; miliar dolar AS) (persen terhadap PDB; miliar dolar AS) 60 Utang dalam negeri (kanan) 300 60 Utang luar negeri swasta (kanan) 300 Utang luar negeri (kanan) Utang luar negeri pemerintah (kanan) Ratio utang pemerintah Ratio utang luar negeri terhadap PDB (kiri) terhadap PDB (kiri) 40 200 40 200 20 100 20 100 0 0 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sumber: MoF; BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia Sumber: BI; perhitungan staf Bank Dunia M a r et 20 1 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 55 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 1: Realisasi dan anggaran belanja Pemerintah (Rupiah triliun) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi Realisasi sementara A. Pendapatan negara dan hibah 849 995 1,211 1,338 1,430 1. Penerimaan pajak 620 723 874 981 1,072 2. Penerimaan non-pajak 227 269 331 352 353 B. Pengeluraran 937 1,042 1,295 1,491 1,639 1. Pemerintah pusat 629 697 884 1,011 1,126 2. Transfer ke pemerintah daerah 309 345 411 481 513 C. Neraca primer 5 42 9 -53 -97 D. Neraca keseluruhan (surplus/defisit) -89 -47 -84 -153 -210 (persen dari PDB) -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.2 Sumber: Kementerian keuangan Lampiran Tabel 2: Neraca pembayaran (miliar dolar AS) 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Neraca pembayaran 11.9 -0.2 -7.3 2.8 -0.8 -3.2 -6.6 -2.5 -2.6 4.4 Persen dari PDB 1.4 0.0 -0.8 1.3 -0.4 -1.5 -3.0 -1.1 -1.2 2.2 Neraca berjalan 1.7 -24.4 -28.5 -8.1 -5.3 -7.8 -5.9 -10.0 -8.5 -4.0 Persen dari PDB 0.2 -2.8 -3.3 -3.7 -2.4 -3.6 -2.7 -4.4 -4.0 -2.0 Neraca perdagangan 24.2 -1.7 -5.3 -2.0 0.8 -2.4 -0.9 -3.9 -2.5 2.0 Pendapatan bersih & transfer berjalan -22.5 -22.7 -23.2 -6.2 -6.1 -5.4 -5.0 -6.1 -6.0 -6.0 Neraca modal & keuangan 13.6 24.9 22.7 5.0 5.8 12.0 -0.4 8.3 5.6 9.2 Persen dari PDB 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.6 5.5 -0.2 3.7 2.6 4.6 Investasi langsung 11.5 13.7 14.8 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 5.7 1.6 Investasi porfolio 3.8 9.2 9.8 3.9 2.5 0.2 2.8 3.4 1.9 1.8 Investasi lain -1.8 1.9 -1.9 -2.5 -1.2 7.7 -6.9 1.2 -2.0 5.9 Kesalahan & pembulatan -3.4 -0.3 -1.6 0.3 0.3 -1.0 -0.3 -0.8 0.3 -0.8 Cadangan devisa* 110.1 112.8 99.4 106.5 110.2 112.8 104.8 98.1 95.7 99.4 Catatan: * Cadangan devisa pada akhir periode Sumber: BI; BPS M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 56 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 3: Perkembangan indikator ekonomi makro Indonesia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 1 Neraca Nasional (% perubahan)    PDB riil 9.0 8.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.8    Investasi riil 25.3 22.6 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.3 9.7 4.7    Konsumsi riil 23.2 21.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.2    Swasta 23.9 22.7 3.7 0.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.3    Pemerintah 18.8 14.7 14.2 6.6 0.3 3.2 1.3 4.9    Ekspor rill, barang dan jasa 22.5 18.0 30.6 16.6 15.3 13.6 2.0 5.3    Impor riil, barang dan jasa 30.2 29.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 13.3 6.7 1.2    Investasi (% PDB) 28 28 20 24 32 32 33 32    Nominal PDB (milyar dolar AS) 114 202 165 286 709 846 877 868    PDB per capita (dolar AS) 636 1035 804 1,300 2,984 3,466 3,548 3,468 2 Anggaran Pemerintah Pusat (% GDP)    Penerimaan dan hibah 18.8 15.2 20.8 17.8 15.5 16.3 16.2 15.3    Penerimaan bukan pajak 1.0 4.8 9.0 5.3 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.8    Penerimaan pajak 17.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 11.3 11.8 11.9 11.5    Pengeluaran 11.8 13.9 22.4 18.4 16.2 17.4 18.1 17.5    Konsumsi .. 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2    Modal .. 4.6 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8    Bunga pinjaman .. 1.4 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2    Subsidi .. .. 6.3 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 3.8    Surplus/defisit 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -2.2    Utang Pemerintah 41.9 32.3 97.9 47.6 26.0 24.3 24.0 25.7    Utang luar negeri pemerintah 41.9 32.3 51.4 22.3 9.5 8.3 7.4 7.8    Total utang luar negeri (termasuk utang swasta) 61.0 61.5 87.1 47.7 28.2 27.5 29.7 35.4 3 Neraca Pembayaran (% PDB)    Neraca pembayaran keseluruhan .. .. .. 0.2 4.3 1.4 0.0 -0.8    Neraca transaksi berjalan -2.6 3.2 4.8 0.1 0.7 0.2 -2.8 -3.3    Ekspor, barang dan jasa 25.6 26.2 42.8 35.0 24.7 26.2 24.1 23.7    Impor, barang dan jasa 24.0 26.9 33.9 32.0 21.6 23.3 24.3 24.3    Transaksi berjalan 1.6 -0.8 8.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 -0.2 -0.6    Neraca transaksi keuangan .. .. .. 0.0 3.7 1.6 2.8 2.6    Penanaman modal langsung, neto 1.0 2.2 -2.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.7    Cadangan devisa bruto (USD billion) 8.7 14.9 29.4 34.7 96.2 110.1 112.8 99.4 3 Moneter (% change)    Deflator PDB1 7.7 9.9 20.4 14.3 8.3 8.1 4.4 4.4    Suku bunga Bank Indonesia (%) .. .. .. 9.1 6.5 6.6 5.8 6.5    Kredit domestik .. .. .. 28.7 17.5 24.4 24.2 22.1 4    Nilai tukar Rupiah/Dolar AS (rata-rata) 1,843 2,249 8,422 9,705 9,090 8,770 9,387 10,461 1 Harga-harga (% perubahan)    Indeks harga konsumen (akhir periode) 9.9 9.0 9.4 17.1 7.0 3.8 4.3 8.4    Indeks harga konsumen (rata-rata) 7.7 9.4 3.7 10.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 7.0    Keranjang harga kemiskinan .. .. .. 10.8 8.7 8.2 6.5 7.5 5    Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (Dolar AS per barel) .. 17 28 53 79 112 113 107 Sumber: 1 BPS dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia; 2 Kementrian Keuangan dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia (untuk 1995 menggunakan tahun dasar 1995/1996, untuk 2000 hanya 9 bulan); 3 Bank Indonesia; 4 IMF; 5 CEIC M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 57 Investasi yang tak menentu Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian Indonesia Lampiran Tabel 4: Sekilas indikator pembangunan Indonesia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 1 Kependudukan Penduduk (juta) 184 199 213 227 241 244 247 Tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk (%) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Penduduk perkotaan (% terhadap total) 31 36 42 46 50 51 51 Rasio ketergantungan (% penduduk usia kerja) 67 61 55 54 53 53 52 2 Angkatan Kerja Angkatan kerja, total (juta) 75 84 98 106 117 117 118 Laki-laki 46 54 60 68 72 72 73 Perempuan 29 31 38 38 45 45 45 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor pertanian (%) 55 43 45 44 38 36 35 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor industri (%) 14 19 17 19 19 21 22 Kontribusi tenaga kerja sektor jasa (%) 31 38 37 37 42 44 43 Tingkat pengangguran, total (% angkatan kerja) 2.5 7.0 8.1 11.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 3 Kemiskinan dan Distribusi Pendapatan Konsumsi rumah tangga, median (Rp.000) .. .. 104 211 374 421 446 Garis kemiskinan nasional (Rp.000) .. .. 73 129 212 234 249 Jumlah penduduk miskin (juta) .. .. 38 35 31 30 29 Penduduk miskin (% penduduk dibawah garis kemiskinan) .. .. 19 16 13 12 12 Di perkotaan .. .. 14.6 11.7 9.9 9.2 8.8 Di perdesaan .. .. 22.4 20.0 16.6 15.7 15.1 Laki-laki sebagai kepala rumah tangga .. .. 15.5 13.3 11.0 10.2 9.5 Perempuan sebagai kepala rumah tangga .. .. 12.6 12.8 9.5 9.7 8.8 GINI indeks .. .. 0.30 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.41 Kontribusi konsumsi pada 20% kelompok termiskin (%) .. .. 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 Kontribusi konsumsi pada 20% kelompok terkaya (%) .. .. 38.6 41.4 43.5 46.5 46.7 4 Pengeluar publik untuk kesejahteraan masyarakat (% PDB) .. .. .. 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 1 Kesehatan dan Gizi Tenaga kesehatan (per 1,000 people) 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.29 .. 0.20 Balita kurang gizi (% total anak usia dibawah 5) .. 27.4 24.8 24.4 18.6 .. .. Tingkat kematian balita (per 1000 anak usia dibawah 5 tahun) 98 67 52 42 34 32 31.0 Tingkat kematian bayi lahir (per 1000 kelahiran hidup) 27 26 22 19 16 15.5 15.0 Tingkat kematian bayi (per 1000 kelahiran hidup) 67 51 41 34 28 26.7 25.8 Rasio kematian persalinan (perkiraan, per 100,000 kelahiran hidup) 600 420 340 270 220 .. .. Persalinan yang dibantu penolong kelahiran (% total kelahiran) 36 .. 66 .. 82 .. .. Imunisasi campak (% anak usia dibawah 2 tahun) .. 63 74 77 75 74.0 80.0 Belanja untuk kesehatan (% of GDP) .. 1.8 77.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 .. Belanja pemerintah untuk kesehatan (% of GDP) .. 0.7 89.0 89.0 1.0 0.9 .. 3 Pendidikan Angka partisipasi murni (APM) SD, (%) .. .. .. 92 92 92 93 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 48 48 49 49 Angka partisipasi murni pendidikan tingkat menengah, (%) .. .. .. 52 61 60 60 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 50 50 50 49 Angka partisipasi murni universitas/pendidikan tinggi, (%) .. .. .. 9 16 14 15 APM perempuan (% dari total partisipasi) .. .. .. 55 53 50 54 Angka melek huruf Dewasa (%) .. .. .. 91 91 91 92 4 Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (% terhadap PDB) .. .. .. 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 4 Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (% terhadap APBN) .. .. .. 14.5 19.7 19.8 18.9 1 Air Bersih dan Kesehatan lingkungan Penduduk dengan akses air bersih disempurnakan (% tot penduduk) 70 74 78 81 84 84 .. Di perkotaan (% penduduk perkotaan) 91 91 91 92 93 93 .. Di perdesaan (% penduduk perdesaan) 61 65 68 71 75 76 .. Penduduk dengani akses kesehatan lingkungan (% tot penduduk) 32 38 44 53 58 59 .. Di perkotaan (% penduduk perkotaan) 56 60 64 70 73 73 .. Di perdesaan (% penduduk perdesaan) 21 26 30 38 43 44 .. 1 Lainnya Pengurangan resiko bencana, penilaian (skala 1-5; 5=terbaik) .. .. .. .. .. 3.3 .. 6 Proporsi perempuan yang duduk di parlemen (%) .. .. 8 11 18 18.2 18.6 Sumber: 1 World Development Indicators; 2 BPS (Sakernas); 3 BPS (Susenas) dan Bank Dunia; 4 Kementerian Keuangan dan perhitungan staf Bank Dunia dan hanya termasuk pengeluaran aktual untuk Raskin, Jamkesmas, BLT, BSM, PKH (kecuali tahun 2012 dari APBN-P; 5 Inter-Parliamentary Union M a r et 201 4 T HE W ORL D BA NK | BAN K DU NIA 58