SOMALIA COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM Volume I Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Photo credits: Cover & Inside ©FAO Somalia SOMALIA: Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture Copyright © 2018 by International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ISBN 978-92-5-130419-8 (FAO) © FAO, 2018 Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 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CONTENTS Abbreviations...................................................................................................................................................................... i Foreword ............................................................................................................................................................................. ii Preface ................................................................................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................................................................. v Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ vi Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed ................................................................................................................................................... xvi References.......................................................................................................................................................................... 167 Endnotes ............................................................................................................................................................................ 173 Chapter 1: The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Livelihood Systems in Somalia ........................................................................................................................ 3 1.2 The Dominance of Agriculture in GDP ........................................................................................................... 5 1.3 The Dominance of Agriculture in Foreign Trade ............................................................................................ 9 1.4 Poor Food Security and Nutrition ................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 2: Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth ........................................................................ 15 2.1 Dilapidated and Poor Infrastructure .............................................................................................................. 16 2.1.1 Watering Sources and Facilities for Livestock ........................................................................................... 17 2.1.2 Irrigation, Flood Control, and Water Harvesting Infrastructure for Crops ............................................... 18 2.1.3 Water as a Source of Conflict .................................................................................................................... 22 2.1.4 Postharvest Storage Facilities for Crops..................................................................................................... 22 2.1.5 Food Safety ................................................................................................................................................. 23 2.1.6 Transport Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................ 24 2.1.7 Telecommunications................................................................................................................................... 25 2.2 Lack of Education and Training ....................................................................................................................... 25 Chapter 3: Institutional Constraints and Challenges ..................................................................................................... 27 3.1 Security............................................................................................................................................................. 28 3.2 Land Tenure ..................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.3 Government Institutions ................................................................................................................................ 30 3.4 Civil Society Institutions .................................................................................................................................. 30 3.5 Gender Dynamics in Agricultural Production ................................................................................................ 31 Chapter 4: Environmental Constraints and Challenges.................................................................................................. 33 4.1 Threats to Forests and Rangelands ................................................................................................................ 35 4.1.1 Charcoal, Somalia’s “Black Gold’................................................................................................................ 35 4.1.2 Resins .......................................................................................................................................................... 39 4.2 Climate Change Implications for Agricultural Growth ................................................................................... 40 4.2.1 Risks to Agriculture...................................................................................................................................... 41 4.2.2 Historical Climate Patterns.......................................................................................................................... 42 4.2.3 Projected Climate Patterns ......................................................................................................................... 42 Chapter 5: The Livestock Subsector ................................................................................................................................. 45 5.1 The Livestock Economy ................................................................................................................................... 47 5.2 Livestock Production Systems ........................................................................................................................ 49 5.3 Livestock Feed Resources ............................................................................................................................... 50 5.4 National and Regional Livestock Policies ....................................................................................................... 51 5.5 Environmental Degradation and the Spread of Private Enclosures .............................................................. 52 5.6 Animal Health and Services ............................................................................................................................ 54 5.7 The Decline in the Livestock Population......................................................................................................... 56 5.8 Trade in Live Animals....................................................................................................................................... 59 5.8.1 Main Livestock Trading Routes .................................................................................................................. 59 5.8.2 Livestock Exports......................................................................................................................................... 61 5.8.3 Livestock Prices and Marketing.................................................................................................................. 65 5.9 Value Addition from Animal Products ............................................................................................................ 65 5.9.1 Dairy............................................................................................................................................................ 66 5.9.2 Fresh and Processed Meat ......................................................................................................................... 68 5.9.3 Hides and Skins ......................................................................................................................................... 71 5.9.4 Poultry........................................................................................................................................................ 72 5.10 Impact of the 2016/17 Drought on the Livestock Subsector ........................................................................ 74 5.11 Growth Opportunities and Prospects for the Livestock Subsector ............................................................... 76 Chapter 6: The Crop Subsector........................................................................................................................................ 79 6.1 Production Systems for Food Crops............................................................................................................... 81 6.1.1 Irrigated Farming Systems ........................................................................................................................ 81 6.1.2 Rainfed Farming Systems.......................................................................................................................... 86 6.1.3 Water Constraints to Crop Production ..................................................................................................... 88 6.2 Trends in Crop Production ............................................................................................................................. 90 6.2.1 Cereal Crop Production ............................................................................................................................. 90 6.2.2 Sesame Production and Exports ............................................................................................................... 93 6.2.3 Banana Production and Exports ............................................................................................................... 94 6.2.4 Expansion of Other Horticulture ............................................................................................................... 96 6.3 Prices, Marketing, and the Impact of the Recent Drought .......................................................................... 99 6.3.1 Sorghum and Maize Prices and Marketing .............................................................................................. 98 6.3.2 Sesame Prices and Marketing .................................................................................................................. 100 6.3.3 Impact of the 2016/17 Drought on Crops (Source: Somalia 2018) ......................................................... 102 6.4 Growth Opportunities and Prospects for Crops............................................................................................ 104 6.4.1 Opportunities and Prospects for Irrigated Crops ..................................................................................... 104 6.4.2 Opportunities and Prospects for Rainfed Crops ....................................................................................... 107 Chapter 7: The Fishery Subsector .................................................................................................................................. 109 7.1 Overview of Somalia’s Fisheries..................................................................................................................... 111 7.2 Fisheries Production Systems, Trends, and Institutions ............................................................................... 113 7.2.1 Inshore Fisheries ........................................................................................................................................ 113 7.2.2 Offshore Fisheries ...................................................................................................................................... 117 7.2.3 Inland Fisheries.......................................................................................................................................... 118 7.2.4 Institutional Framework for Managing Fisheries .................................................................................... 119 7.3 Conditions of and Challenges Facing Regional Fisheries .............................................................................. 123 7.3.1 Jubaland and South West ......................................................................................................................... 123 7.3.2 Banaadir (Mogadishu) and Hirshabelle ................................................................................................... 124 7.3.3 Galmudugs................................................................................................................................................. 127 7.3.4 Puntland .................................................................................................................................................... 127 7.3.5 Somaliland ................................................................................................................................................. 130 7.4 Opportunities and Prospects for Growth ..................................................................................................... 131 7.4.1 Overall Prospects for Fisheriess................................................................................................................. 131 7.4.2 Prospects for Various Types of Fisheries ................................................................................................... 132 7.4.3 Opportunities for Improved Nutrition ...................................................................................................... 135 7.4.4 Prospects for Fishery Governance and Information................................................................................. 135 Chapter 8: Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth ................................................. 137 8.1 Main Challenges and Priorities ...................................................................................................................... 139 8.2 Main Goals and Design Principles.................................................................................................................. 141 8.3 Addressing Environmental Challenges .......................................................................................................... 144 8.3.1 The Climate Change Challenge ................................................................................................................. 144 8.3.2 The Natural Resource and Rangeland Management Challenge ............................................................. 145 8.4 Increasing Agricultural Production ................................................................................................................ 148 8.4.1 Overall Reform and Investment Options .................................................................................................. 148 8.4.2 Policy and Investment Recommendations for the Livestock Subsector .................................................. 150 8.4.3 Policy and Investment Recommendations for the Crop Subsector.......................................................... 156 8.4.4 Policy and Investment Recommendations for the Fishery Subsector ..................................................... 161 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Incidence of Poverty in Somalia, 2016 ................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 1.2: Sectoral Contributions to GDP in Somaliland, 2012–13 ....................................................................................... 6 Figure 1.3: Shares of Livestock and Crop Production in Somalia, 1986–88 to 2013–16 ........................................................ 7 Figure 1.4: Food Security in Somalia, by Livelihood Zone, November 18............................................................................... 14 Figure 2.1: Traditional Postharvest Grain Storage Pits and Metal Grain Silos before and after Rehabilitation..................... 23 Figure 4.1: Estimated Annual Production and Export of Wood Charcoal by Somalia, 1992–2016 ....................................... 36 Figure 4.2: Exports of Resin and Gum by Somalia, 2005–16................................................................................................... 39 Figure 4.3: Risk Events Affecting Agriculture in Somalia, 1980–2017..................................................................................... 41 Figure 5.1: Migration and Seasonal Pattern of Livestock Movement in Somalia ................................................................... 48 Figure 5.2: Livestock Population in Somalia (including Somaliland), 1961–2014................................................................... 56 Figure 5.3: Main Livestock Trade Routes in Somalia................................................................................................................ 60 Figure 5.4: Livestock Exports by Somalia, by Type, 1961–2016 .............................................................................................. 61 Figure 5.5: Infographic on Livestock Exports by Somalia, 2015............................................................................................... 62 Figure 5.6: Livestock Exports from Berbera, 1994–2016......................................................................................................... 64 Figure 5.7: Livestock Exports from Bosaso, 1994–2016 .......................................................................................................... 64 Figure 5.8: Production of Fresh Raw Milk in Somalia, by Milk Type, 1961–2014................................................................... 66 Figure 5.9: Production and Prices of Milk in Maroodi Jex Region, Somaliland....................................................................... 67 Figure 5.10: Production of Indigenous Meat in Somalia, by Type, 1961–2013 ........................................................................ 69 Figure 5.11: Production of Hides and Skins in Somalia, 1961–2013 ......................................................................................... 71 Figure 5.12: Exports of Hides and Skins from Northern Ports of Somalia, 2005–16................................................................ 71 Figure 5.13: Production of Eggs in Somalia, 1961–2014 ........................................................................................................... 73 Figure 5.14: Production of Poultry Meat in Somalia, 1961–2014 ............................................................................................. 73 Figure 5.15: Map of Estimated Economic Damages and Losses from 2016/17 Drought......................................................... 75 Figure 6.1: Map of Somalia’s Crop-Growing Zones.................................................................................................................. 82 Figure 6.2: Map of Land Use in the Shabelle and Juba River Basins ....................................................................................... 83 Figure 6.3: Map of Irrigated Areas in Bari, Nugaal, Sool and Sanaag Regions ....................................................................... 85 Figure 6.4: Map of Irrigated Areas in Awdal, Woqooyi, Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag Regions................................ 86 Figure 6.5: Dry Bed of the Shabelle River................................................................................................................................. 89 Figure 6.6: Production of Cereal in Somalia, 1961–2015 ........................................................................................................ 90 Figure 6.7: Domestic Cereal Production, Cereal Imports, and Food Aid in Somalia, 1988–2015.......................................... 91 Figure 6.8: Production of Cereal in Southern Somalia, 1998–2016 ........................................................................................ 91 Figure 6.9: Cereal Yields in Southern Somalia, 1998–2016 ..................................................................................................... 92 Figure 6.10: Production of Cereal in Somaliland, 1998–2016 ................................................................................................... 92 Figure 6.11: Maize and Sorghum Yields in Somaliland, 1998–2016.......................................................................................... 93 Figure 6.12: Production of Sesame in Somalia, 1961–2017...................................................................................................... 94 Figure 6.13: Production of Bananas in Somalia, 1961–90 and 2015–16/17............................................................................. 95 Figure 6.14: Cereal Prices in Southern Somalia and Somaliland, 2000–17............................................................................... 100 Figure 6.15: Prices of Sesame and Vegetable Oil in Southern Somalia and Somaliland, 2000–17.......................................... 101 Figure 7.1: Map of Fishing Locations in Somalia...................................................................................................................... 112 Figure 7.2: Fisheries Catch in Somali Waters, by Species, 1981–2001.................................................................................... 115 Figure 7.3: Automatic Identification System (AIS) Tracking of 11 Chinese Longline Vessels, March–May 2015 ����������������� 119 Figure 7.4: Summary of Economically Important Fishes and Invertebrates found in Somali Waters.................................... 120 Figure 7.5: Fishery Productivity in Puntland, 1995, 2000, and 2005....................................................................................... 130 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: GDP and GDP per Capita in Somalia, 2010s and 1980s.............................................................................................. 3 Table 1.2: Agriculture’s Share of GDP in Somalia, 1980, 1986–88, and 2013–16 (percent) ...................................................... 6 Table 1.3: Gross Production Values of Livestock and Crops in Somalia, 1986–2017 ................................................................. 8 Table 1.4: Somalia’s Top 15 Agricultural Exports, 1981–2015..................................................................................................... 9 Table 1.5: Top 15 Destinations for Somalia’s Agricultural Exports, 1981–2015 ......................................................................... 10 Table 1.6: Somalia’s Top Agriculture Imports, 1981–2015 (millions of dollars, annual averages) ............................................ 11 Table 5.1: Number of Sheep and Goats in Somalia Vaccinated for Main Animal Diseases in 2012–17................................. 55 Table 5.2: Livestock Population in Somalia by Region, 2014 (before Drought) ....................................................................... 57 Table 5.3: Number of Livestock in Somalia by type, 1998-2009 .............................................................................................. 58 Table 5.4: Number of Livestock Head Exported from Ports in Somaliland, Puntland, and Southern Somalia, 2012–17 ��������� 61 Table 5.5: Price of Raw Camel and Goat Milk in Abudwaq, Baidoa, and Beletweyne (Dollars per Litre)............................... 68 Table 5.6: Chilled Meat Exports by Somalia, 2006–10 (Number of Shoat Carcasses)............................................................. 70 Table 5.7: Drought-Related Damage to and Losses in Somalia’s Livestock Subsector, October 2016–September 2017 ������ 74 Table 6.1: Projected Population Growth and Water Demand in the Juba and Shabelle River Basins, 2005–55 ................... 90 Table 6.2: Gross Production of Vegetables and Fruits by Somalia, 1977–2017....................................................................... 98 Table 6.3: World Price and Wholesale Prices of Sesame in Middle Shabelle, 2011–15 ......................................................... 102 Table 6.4: Estimated Damages and Losses to Crops from the 2016/17 Drought.................................................................... 103 Table 6.5: Area under Irrigation in the Shabelle and Juba River Basins (Hectares)................................................................. 105 Table 8.1: Somalia’s Development Priorities for the Agricultural Sector ................................................................................. 142 Table 8.2: Somalia’s Priority Actions for Adapting to Climate Change..................................................................................... 144 Table 8.3: Growth Potential of Selected Agricultural Subsectors in Somalia, by Region ........................................................ 149 Table 8.4: Estimated Costs of Building or Improving Fishery Landing Sites at Major Ports .................................................... 163 LIST OF BOXES Box 1.1: Agriculture Offers Opportunities to Reduce Somalia’s High Youth Unemployment.............................................. 5 Box 1.2: High Socio-economic Cost of Khat Use by Somali Men........................................................................................... 12 Box 1.3: Remittances Are Critical to Somalia’s Food Security................................................................................................ 13 Box 2.1: Poor State of Key Irrigation and Flood Control Infrastructure in Middle Shabelle Region..................................... 18 Box 2.2: Poor State of Barrages in the Lower Shabelle Region.............................................................................................. 19 Box 2.3: Severe Deterioration of the Fanoole Hydroelectric Dam and Its Canal System in the Lower Juba ....................... 20 Box 2.4: State-Owned Productive Facilities in the Lower Juba before the Civil War............................................................ 21 Box 3.1: Environmental Institutions in Puntland.................................................................................................................... 31 Box 4.1: The Charcoal Trade and Terrorism in Somalia.......................................................................................................... 37 Box 4.2: The Profitable Business of Charcoal ......................................................................................................................... 38 Box 4.3: What are Frankincense and Myrrh?......................................................................................................................... 39 Box 5.1: Many Actors in the Livestock Value Chain in Somalia ............................................................................................. 59 Box 5.2: From a Dairy Subsector in the 1980s to a Raw Milk–Only Subsector Today .......................................................... 67 Box 5.3: Current Limitations and Past Failures in Meat Processing ...................................................................................... 70 Box 5.4: The Sad State of Hide and Skin Processing in Somalia ............................................................................................ 72 Box 6.1: Thriving Processing of Sugarcane and Cotton in Somalia before the War ............................................................. 96 Box 6.2: Promising New Crops and Processing Ventures for Somalia .................................................................................. 99 Box 7.1: From Modest to Minimal Fish and Seafood Processing in Somalia ........................................................................ 114 Box 7.2: Excerpts from Somalia’s 2016 Fisheries Law ........................................................................................................... 121 Box 7.3: Creating Sustainable Fisheries: Key Goals of Somalia’s Maritime Resource and Security Strategy....................... 122 Box 7.4: Fishery Development Needs in Jubaland ................................................................................................................ 125 Box 7.5: Fishery Development Needs in South West State ................................................................................................... 126 Box 7.6: Fishery Development Needs in Galmudug State ..................................................................................................... 127 Box 7.7: Dwindling Piracy But Increasing Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing Activities in Somalia ................... 128 Box 7.8: Lessons from the World Bank’s Failed NECFISH Project ......................................................................................... 129 Box 7.9: Promoting Fish Consumption among Internally Displaced People......................................................................... 134 Box 8.1: Somalia’s Action Plan to Combat Deforestation and Desertification...................................................................... 146 Abbreviations All currency is in U.S. dollars, except where indicated otherwise ARC American Refugee Committee DFID Department for International Development EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FAOSTAT Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database FEWS Food Early Warning System FGS Federal Government of Somalia FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit GDP Gross Domestic Product IDP Internally Displaced Persons IMF International Monetary Fund INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IOTC Indian Ocean Tuna Commission NGO Nongovernment Organization PPP Public-Private Partnership SATG Somali Agriculture Technical Group SWALIM Somalia Water and Land Information Management UN United Nations UNFPA United Nations Population Fund Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia i FOREWORD Following more than two decades of civil war, Somalia has made important progress in recent years with the establishment of permanent political, economic and security institutions. This points towards a future with stronger prospects for peace and for economic and social development. Agriculture remains key to the livelihood of half of Somalia’s population that still lives in rural areas. It is also key to the country’s food security and economic growth prospects. We are thus proud that the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) collaborated on this important report to assist Somalia in implementing the 2017–19 National Development Plan and to inform its forward policy planning and programming and that of its development partners. The report canvasses all available information to document how Somalia’s livestock and crops subsectors have been buffeted by deteriorating water and transport infrastructure, persistent insecurity, weak regulatory and enabling institutions, and severe environmental degradation of the country’s rangelands and forested areas. Widespread losses to assets, income and livelihoods stemming from the current drought attest to the sector’s acute vulnerability to extreme weather events and Climate Change. Moreover, coastal fishing has remained artisanal and, in the absence of effective regulations and monitoring, foreign commercial vessels have engaged in both legal and illegal harvesting. Despite these and other challenges, this report highlights why there is cause for optimism in the sector’s growth prospects. Somalia’s landmass encompasses vast tracts of arable land and a variety of agroecological zones conducive to agricultural expansion. There are large areas suitable for livestock grazing, browsing, and fodder production to support the country’s growing markets and export trade; others with fertile alluvial soils for staple cereals, oil seeds, legumes, and horticulture crops. Its forests provide prized gums and resins for both export and local markets and charcoal for cooking. The country’s waters are home to a diverse range of valuable reef and pelagic marine species. With better monitoring, management, supportive public investments, and an enabling environment, the livestock subsector can become more resilient, improve the quality of its animals, and enhance the safety and value added of its products; the crop subsector can recover and surpass its remarkable pre-war production and export levels; and both coastal and offshore fisheries can contribute more meaningfully to sector growth. Supporting the sector’s drought recovery, strengthening its climate resilience, and improving its overall performance will not only boost prospects for sustained economic development, but will also help cement peace and security, alleviate poverty and malnutrition, and enhance health outcomes in both rural and urban areas. It is therefore our hope that this report will help inform and guide Somalia’s federal and state governments and their international development partners as focus shifts from short-term recovery and humanitarian response to long-term development and sustained sector growth. Finally, let us take this opportunity to thank the many Somalis — academics and officials — who participated with our technical teams in the research and in consultation and who helped us to better understand the challenges facing Somali agriculture and the opportunities to catalyze its growth. Bella Bird Daniele Donati Country Director, Somalia Country Representative, Somalia The World Bank Group Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ii Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Preface During the past 27 years of civil conflict, violence, weak or absent governance, and protracted political crises, governments and local communities have nonetheless tried to rebuild state capacity and institutions, improve security, rehabilitate physical infrastructure, and provide an enabling environment for the private sector, with the dual aim of reviving the economy and ensuring political stability. The northern regions of Puntland and Somaliland have been mostly peaceful and have continued their decades-old processes of state building and economic development. The Federal Government of Somalia that emerged in 2012 has succeeded in extending its territorial control in southern Somalia, though many areas of it are still affected by terrorist insurgency, especially outside the main urban centers of Mogadishu and Kismayo. It has also fostered the creation of new Federal Member States, held indirect elections for a new president, government, and parliament, and is growing its revenues from domestic sources, albeit from a negligible base. Even during the period of civil conflict and in the absence of a central government, the Somali economy continued to grow at a modest pace. State collapse in southern Somalia did not translate into economic collapse partly because the prewar regime was predatory in nature. The lifting of state constraints on private enterprise led not only to improved economic performance but also to private sector provision of many services previously provided inefficiently by the public sector, including telecommunications, air transport, money transfer, and (inadequately) urban water, electricity, and social services. Other factors that have helped support the economy include remittances sent by a highly skilled diaspora; traditional institutions based on clan networks, which provided some degree of secured property rights and contract enforcement, even in conflict-affected southern Somalia; and booming informal trade with neighboring countries, which provided a new source of income. Despite rapid urbanization, about 49 percent of the population (6 million people) still lives in rural areas, of which slightly more than half derive their livelihood directly from nomadic pastoralism, slightly less than half from crops cultivation, and a much smaller share from fishing. The welfare of the remaining urban or internally displaced population also depends critically on the consumption and trade of Somalia’s livestock and related products, of its crops, and of its fisheries. The premise of this report—like much of the work of international development agencies active in the country—is that a growing economy is a critical element of peace building and state building. Indeed, development and jobs can contribute to improving the security situation and create incentives for political settlement. With agriculture remaining central to the country’s economic growth prospects, now is a propitious time for all levels of government and the international development community to assess the medium- and long-term development needs of its agricultural subsectors and start planning to address them. In recent years, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), various other development agencies, and the World Bank produced reports covering a range of issues including macroeconomic management, intergovernmental fiscal relations, economic growth opportunities, and agriculture. The most recent comprehensive analytical work on Somalia’s economy, however, was carried out more than 10 years ago, when the World Bank prepared a Country Economic Report and a Joint Needs Assessment (with the United Nations Development Programme). Both reports covered the agricultural sector’s performance and challenges (World Bank 2006; World Bank and UNDP 2007). This report was prepared jointly by the World Bank and the FAO Investment Centre, with critical inputs by the FAO Somalia Office, and with the support in-country of the Federal Government Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development as well as of sector ministries and sub-national governments. It represents the first module of a broader analytical work planned by the World Bank for a Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) expected to be completed in 2018. As envisioned, subsequent modules of the CEM will cover the information and telecommunications, energy, financial, and transport sectors and several cross-cutting topics, including Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia iii macroeconomic management, institutions, the diaspora, trade, and the private sector. This module assesses, across all major geopolitical regions of Somalia, the contributions to livelihoods, exports, and economic growth of the primary agricultural subsectors (livestock, crops, forestry, fishery and agro-processing) during the period from before the civil war through the mid-2010s. It also analyzes the major constraints, challenges, options, and prospects for agricultural growth. It does not, however, address the short-term impact of the severe drought that hit northwestern Somalia in 2015 and then moved southward in 2016–17, which is the focus of a separate report (Somalia 2018). Moreover, the limited availability and sometimes inconsistency of the data, especially for the fishery subsector, greatly constrained the quantitative analysis carried out for this report. A standalone overview has been produced which provides a summary of the key findings and recommendations of the report. It is nonetheless the authors’ hope that the information and analysis presented will inform the further elaboration (through sector strategies and programs) and implementation of the National Development Plan 2017–19 and will contribute to the preparation of the next National Development Plan. The report should also support further primary data collection, the formulation of investment projects for agricultural development, and the provision of other financial and technical assistance by the international development community and private sector investors, including the Somali diaspora. iv Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Acknowledgments This report has been produced jointly by the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture organization (FAO) in close collaboration with the Federal government and Federal Member States. Financial support for this report has been provided by Somalia Multi-Partner Fund under the Somalia Knowledge for Results Trust Fund led by John Randa (Senior Country Economist, World Bank). Praveen Kumar (Lead Economist, World Bank) and Pascal Sanginga (Senior Investment Officer, FAO Investment Centre) conceptulized and prepared the design of the report and assembled the two organizations’ teams. Core authors from the World Bank include Gianni Zanini, Stephen Paul D’Alessandro, Verena Phipps, and Catherine Ngumbau. Core authors from FAO include Pascal Sanginga, Julia Seevinck, Yamina Cherrou, Andrew Read, and Stephen Akester. Other key contributors from both the World Bank and FAO include Mohamood Abdi Noor, Hussein Mao Haji, Richard Trenchard, Sergio Innocente, Jan Helsen, Saeed Khalid, Malik Amin, Molla Daniel, Njeru Jeremiah, Julius Mwangi, and Laxman Reddy. The team appreciates contributions from the Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) and the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU). World Bank peer reviewers including Teklu Tesfaye (Senior Agriculture Specialist) and Charlotte De Fontaubert (Senior Fisheries Specialist) as wells as many other staff from the World Bank and FAO reviewed the final draft report and early versions of the sectoral chapters, and provided valuable contributions that improved the final report quality. The team is grateful for the support and strategic guidance provided by the World Bank and FAO management, in particular Bella Bird (Country Director, World Bank Somalia); Daniele Donati (Country Representative, FAO Somalia); Abebe Adugna (Practice Manager, World Bank); and Hugh Riddell (Country Representative, World Bank Somalia). Kevin Carey (Practice Manager, World Bank); Mark Cackler (Practice Manager, World Bank); and Gayle Martin (Program Leader, World Bank). Barbara Karni edited the report volumes and Susan Wangui provided design and layout. Hassan Hirsi and Chi Lael led communication and media related tasks in dissemination of the report. Janerose Lubisia, Eugenia Konya, Margaret Odhiambo, Celestine Kisaka, Mohamed Abdi, and Idris Mohamud provided overall dissemination planning and logistics. Finally, the team appreciates the close partnership with FGS and FMS ministries’ in charge of Planning, Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Environment who provided critical feedback during the September 2017 in-country consultations in Mogadishu. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia v Executive Summary This joint report by the World Bank and the Food enjoyed both legal and illegal harvesting offshore. and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is part of a wider About 49 percent of the population still lives in rural set of economic and sector work being conducted areas, with 46 percent of employed people working by development agencies to assist Somalia in its in agriculture (25 percent in crop cultivation, 9 further elaboration (through sector strategies percent in herding, 4 percent in fishing, and 7 percent and programs) and implementation of the current in related activities). National Development Plan and its preparation of the next one. The report covers the historical Largely because of the dramatic expansion of performance of all major agricultural subsectors the relative economic importance of livestock (livestock, crops, forestry, and fishing) and the status production and exports, agriculture’s share of of agro-processing. It also analyzes the subsectors’ GDP has risen significantly from its prewar level of key medium- and long-term development constraints, about 62 percent to possibly 75 percent or higher. challenges, potential for growth, and policy and Before the civil war, the crop subsector was the investment options. second-largest contributor to GDP and exports, after livestock. It remains crucial for food security, but its Weak institutions, insecurity, a persistent insurgency, contribution to the economy is much smaller than it dilapidated infrastructure, environmental was, as over the past three decades, the volume of degradation, and climate change are major cereal production has declined by almost 60 percent obstacles to Somalia’s economic development, from its 1989 peak. especially in the Southern regions. These challenges and the recent severe drought-related crises Thanks to livestock, total agricultural exports have notwithstanding, agriculture is and will remain climbed every year since the late 2000s, to a peak central to the country’s economic development. in 2015 of $634 million, more than five times the value before the civil war. Agriculture represents Agriculture Remains Key to Somalia’s Economic about 93 percent of total exports, down slightly from Growth and Poverty Reduction 95 percent before the war. Livestock exports remain by the far the largest category, having risen by a Over the past three decades, the livestock and crop subsectors have been buffeted by Somalia’s factor of almost 10 between the late 1980s and the increasingly fragile and degraded natural mid-2010s. Because of the recent drought and a environment and more frequent and severe cycles renewed import ban by Saudi Arabia, the volume of of drought and floods. These factors, as well as livestock exports fell in 2016 and in 2017. continuing insecurity and lack of or weak government institutions and the consequent deterioration of the Sesame exports are Somalia’s second-largest flood control, irrigation, and transport infrastructure export. Given the collapse of banana exports, dry in the Southern regions, have severely reduced crop lemon is the only sizable export among vegetables production. and fruits. Destructive charcoal exports to the Arabian Peninsula have fallen significantly since the Livestock and crops nonetheless remain the main federal and state governments started enforcing sources of economic activity, employment, and the export bans they adopted in 2012, but some exports in Somalia. Despite the country’s rich fishing are still taking place, through informal channels and grounds, coastal fishing has remained small-scale misclassification of shipments. and artisanal while foreign commercial vessels have Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia vii Executive Summary The combination of increased domestic food As a result, livestock survival during severe demand (driven by rapid population growth and droughts has become dependent on very costly and urbanization and largely supported by remittances) often unaffordable privately owned water tankers, and the collapse of domestic crop production has led and the cultivated area under irrigation has shrunk to a massive increase in food imports. Agricultural to only about half the estimated 222,950 hectares imports rose by a factor of 18, reaching almost $1.5 before the war, with the most recent drought billion in 2015, up from an annual average of only reducing it even further. Deteriorated rainwater about $82 million in the late 1980s. Even before the harvesting infrastructure and capacity have reduced current drought, food aid and food imports were the total rainfed area under cultivation. Access by already larger than domestic production of grains. producers to urban markets is also very costly, and Imports of khat have also risen, with deleterious sometime very difficult. effects on health, family life, and productivity. The only positive infrastructure development Somalia faces a chronic food crop deficit, as local since the start of the civil war has been the rapid production meets only 22 percent of per capita expansion of mobile phone service. It has allowed cereal needs. Even in the best agricultural seasons, rural communities to communicate with nearby domestic production provides only about 40–50 urban markets about input and output prices, percent of per capita cereal needs. Pastoral, farming, facilitated receipt of remittances from the diaspora and fishing communities all suffer from high rates of and payments for all kinds of purchases, and chronic malnutrition. The root causes of this extreme provided access to updated information on domestic food insecurity are to be found in the collapse of and international developments and the availability most irrigation and flood-control infrastructure, itself of local services. a consequence of the lingering civil conflict in many rural areas in Southern Somalia. Other contributing factors are poverty; gender inequity; high population “Somalia is a mostly semiarid country, growth; limited access to water, sanitation, and where water is one of the main sources health services; and more frequent, severe, and of conflict between nomadic pastoralists protracted droughts. and agro-pastoralists.” Poor Infrastructure and Low Skills Hold Back Agricultural Development In the education field, many community and Somalia is a mostly semiarid country, where water privately supported technical schools and is one of the main sources of conflict between universities have been established in the past two nomadic pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. Water decades, some of them offering degree programs in infrastructure to harness river water and extract livestock, crops, and fishery science. These efforts groundwater has severely deteriorated since the remain insufficient to ease the acute scarcity of outbreak of the civil war in the Southern regions, skilled personnel for agricultural development. as a result of lack of regular maintenance and repairs, prolonged insecurity, weak government institutions, and the absence of effective community Weak Security and Institutions Stymie Agriculture organizations. The already insufficient prewar Recovery road network is in extremely poor condition The long civil war resulted in extreme lack of in the Southern regions. Both water and road security in Southern Somalia. Armed militias with infrastructures are still functional and gradually little farming skills and experience continue to occupy expanding in the northern regions, but they are far prime farmland in the Lower Shabelle region. Political from adequate to meet needs. (and taxation) control over much of the riverine and viii Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Executive Summary inter-riverine areas is still being contested between traditional nomadic pastoralism and rainfed Al-Shabaab, a terrorist insurgency movement, and crop cultivation. By 2014, forests covered only 10 the national army (supported by an African Union percent of the country’s land area, down from 62 peace-keeping contingent). The continuing insecurity percent before 1980. The move toward more private makes access to farms and market outlets risky, enclosures for livestock grazing and semi-permanent costly, and unprofitable. Such conditions also make family shelters has exacerbated deforestation, and interventions by aid agencies extremely challenging. the phenomenon is still gathering speed. The more Ministries at the federal and state level provide erratic and diminishing flows in major rivers—caused agricultural services in Southern Somalia in only partly by increasing use of water in upstream basins a very limited, fragmented, and inefficient way, in the Ethiopian highlands—also threaten irrigated because of lack of skilled staff and funding and poor crop cultivation. access to most rural areas. The main cause of large-scale deforestation of There is also a lingering vacuum in the policy rangelands has been the massive and unsustainable functions, monitoring, and services normally cutting of acacia trees to produce charcoal, exports provided by government. Grazing disputes between of which reached $56 million at their peak in 2011, neighboring pastoral communities have become up from zero before the civil war and as late as the more common since the collapse of the pre–civil war mid-1990s. This trade became increasingly controlled government. Recent expansion of private enclosures by and a major source of revenues for Al-Shabaab. on traditionally open rangelands, especially along Since 2012, increasingly effective enforcement of livestock migration and transport corridors and urban charcoal export bans by the federal and regional centers, have exacerbated tensions. Even in the more governments as well as by importing countries secure northern regions, neither government nor in the Gulf, the introduction of gas stoves, and community institutions appear capable of dealing growing popular environmental awareness have with such disputes. significantly reduced demand for and thus the production of charcoal. A complete registry of farms survived the civil war, but regardless of evidence and rulings, landholders who left their farms in southern Somalia during “Agriculture is and will remain central to the civil war are still unable to reclaim their land, Somalia’s economic development.” because of insecurity, the weakness of traditional arbitration, and the absence of modern judicial institutions. In contrast, there are very few In the late 1980s, Somalia was the world’s largest farmland disputes in the northern regions, where producer and exporter of frankincense and myrrh. prewar landholdings were never disrupted and Wide fluctuations in exports are related partly to ministries of agriculture have issued proper lease overexploitation and poor harvesting practices by a certificates for newly allocated farmland (mostly new generation of tree owners and minders eager to new, small farmers). to maximize short-term earnings but unaware of the trees’ long-term health needs. Environmental Degradation and Climate Change Pose New Challenges Weather phenomena—including fluctuations Severe deforestation and soil erosion from in air and sea surface temperatures, rainfall, unregulated human activity, overgrazing of humidity, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, and rangelands and climate change threaten not only the wind speed—have already become increasingly growth prospects but also the viability of Somalia’s unpredictable and extreme across the Horn of Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia ix Executive Summary Africa. Eight major droughts in the last four decades Demand is high and growing for good-quality have severely affected crop and livestock production fodder along trading routes, in market centers, and in Somalia. By early 2017, the cumulative impact of at terminal ports. However, the predominant feed various failed successive rainy seasons had created production systems rely mostly on fresh grasses and a serious humanitarian crisis that threatened to shrubs on the country’s vast rangelands, and on their become a famine in a few areas. straw of low nutritional value. Hay production from native grasses is very limited, and storage practices The climate in the Horn of Africa is projected to are so poor that its nutritive value very quickly drops become even drier, warmer, more erratic, and to that of straw. At peak demand periods, grains, more extreme than in recent decades and thus less other fresh crops, and even emergency relief food for favorable to crop, livestock, fisheries, and forestry- people are also sold as livestock feed. based livelihood systems. While most climate models predict higher rainfall, the expectation of a Although well adapted to the harsh geographical drier climate is supported by the stronger historical and climatic environment, Somali livestock is evidence, both recent as well as from prehistoric characterized by low weights and milk yields, mainly times. In any case, all scientists agree on a warmer because larger and heavier animals are selected for future, with increased variability and frequency of slaughter or live export rather than breeding. In the extreme rainfall events. absence of government animal health programs and institutions, the private sector and local veterinary The consequences of such changes are dire for associations funded by development partners have Somalia’s agriculture. Higher air temperatures will provided many critical services. Such efforts remain increase transpiration from soil, tree canopies, and insufficient to address the serious risk of animal water bodies. More variable and extreme rainfall diseases and consequent import bans. The latest on already barren soils will result in more run-off ban, imposed by Saudi Arabia at the end of 2016, was and erosion, less groundwater recharge, and less only temporarily suspended during July–September water availability in the surface layers for plant 2017. As of early 2018, it remains in effect. growth. Other likely impacts include reduction of vegetation for grazing and more variable water “Livestock and crops remain the availability, with grave impacts on livestock herding main sources of economic activity, and related livelihoods. Rising sea temperatures and acidification will also reduce fish stocks and change employment, and exports in Somalia.” their distribution. The sector has shown remarkable resilience, Strong Performance in Live Animals Contrasts with although the stock of animals, the health and Weak Performance in Livestock Products welfare of surviving animals, and livestock products have suffered severely from the most recent Livestock remains the traditional repository of drought. The stock of animals (estimated at 53 household wealth in Somalia, the largest export, and an important source of livelihood for a large million in 2014) is well past the peak level registered part of the population. The main production systems in the late 1980s (about 40 million), and Somalia are nomadic pastoralism and agro-pastoralism, but has more camels (7.1 million as of 2016) than any large livestock-rearing operations with dairy animals other country in the world. Substantial investment in (mostly camels) have been on the rise in settled quality improvements has supported an impressive mixed farming. They supply nearby urban and peri- growth in livestock exports, including for breeding, urban markets with fresh milk only, as there are no with both volumes and values (peaking at $533 or minimal processing facilities. million in 2015) higher than before the civil war. Processing of livestock products, however, is minimal and well below prewar levels. x Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Executive Summary Milk production, especially from camels, has risen irrigation. In recent years, only a fraction of irrigable steadily since the late 1980s, reaching a market value land was irrigated and cultivated (less than 20 percent of about $3.3 billion in 2014. Somalia nonetheless of potential and about half of irrigated land before the still imported dairy products while exporting none. war). Almost two-thirds of cultivable land, both rainfed In early 2017, at the peak of the recent drought, and irrigated, is in the fertile areas along and between milk yields were cut by more than half for camels the two major rivers in the southern regions. A smaller and up to two-thirds for cows and goats. Structural cultivated rainfed area in the northwestern regions constraints that have kept the dairy sector from and some oasis and coastal cultivated areas in the reaching its potential include the same ones that northeastern regions constitute the remaining third. affect the welfare and health of live animals, as well Rainfed areas rely mostly on groundwater extraction, as poor or no enforcement of low and outdated rainfall harvesting, and moisture retaining techniques. prewar hygiene standards, lack of processes to preserve milk quality, inefficient marketing channels Irrigated farming systems—which grow maize, fraught with excessive intermediaries, the poor state sesame, other food crops, bananas, other fruits, of roads, rapid spoilage from high temperatures and and vegetables—face many constraints. They humidity, and the absence of economies of scale. include (a) much diminished and inconsistent surface water availability, as a result of the dilapidated state Production of fresh meat has expanded to meet of prewar irrigation and flood control infrastructure rising domestic demand, but it remains well below in southern Somalia; (b) inefficient water use, potential. Commercial meat processing is limited to increased salinization, and water logging, caused very small quantities of chilled goat and beef meat for by lack of water use planning and regulation; (c) export. Growth has been hampered by most of the poor soil fertility management, as inputs such as constraints listed above as well as mismanagement. manure, fertilizer, and pesticides are either used in The quantity of hides and skins is comparable to the a suboptimal way or not used at all; (d) low-quality late 1980s level, at about 7 million pieces a year. seeds and the retail availability of only a few seed Raw hides and skins are of poor quality, however, varieties; (e) limited and unreliable mechanized as improper preservation and storage often leaves equipment (most farmers use handheld tools to till them damaged by vermin. Unlike before the civil war, the land); (f) badly deteriorated roads, which increase processing is currently minimal (sun-drying only), the time and costs of transporting crops to markets, with virtually no domestic leather production. undermining incentives to expand horticulture crops; and (g) inappropriate farming techniques, as a result Poultry keeping is widespread among poor of the absence of extension and research services. households. Imports of day-old chicks and of eggs for local hatcheries as well as production by commercial Another, potentially overwhelming, threat to poultry farms are still limited but growing steadily. Somalia’s irrigated crop production is agricultural The subsector’s further expansion, however, is development upstream in the Ethiopian basins of constrained by shortages and the high costs of inputs, the Shabelle and Juba rivers. The Shabelle River including poultry feed and feed concentrates. dried out completely twice in recent years (in March 2016 and December 2016–early April 2017), a new Performance of the Crop Subsector Is Weak, but and unprecedent development. Full implementation Growth Potential Is High of the Ethiopian water master plan could eventually Some 3 million hectares (about 5 percent of cause a drastic reduction in river flows downstream, Somalia’s total land) are cultivable, with 2.3 million possibly by more than 80 percent for the Shabelle under rainfed conditions and 700,000 hectares River, and alter prevailing stream flow patterns, suitable for either pump or recession-controlled including flood intensities. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia xi Executive Summary Under rainfed farming, a production system severe degradation of both marine and coastal geared mainly to meet subsistence needs of rural environments. Moreover, projected increases in households, the major crops grown are sorghum, sea temperature and sea level will negatively affect cowpea, and, to a lesser extent, maize and sesame, coastal fish nesting and fishing grounds and increase as well as khat and millet in the northwest. The the frequency and severity of flooding of low-lying main constraints faced by rainfed farming systems coastal lands, estuaries, deltas, and salt marshes. include (a) lower and more erratic rainfall than in the past, resulting in more frequent and intense Knowledge of Somalia’s fishery subsector is very cycles of droughts and floods; (b) deteriorated limited, because its waters remain uncharted, water harvesting and storage infrastructure; (c) poor unsupervised, and unmonitored. No reliable data soil management, resulting in very low moisture on fishing activity, landings, stocks, or habitat status retention and inadequate internal drainage; and (d) have been collected since before the civil war. The very low-input farming techniques. onshore marine fishery subsector is modest in size, with artisanal fishing carried out near land mostly Even in normal years, average yields for both by men (about 9,500 full-time or part-time, with irrigated and rainfed crops are very low. However, about 1,300 small vessels), and trading and support if constraints were fully addressed, the expert activities and (minimal) fish processing carried out consensus is that average yields could increase by a by women. Since 1980, guesstimates by a team of factor of four to six for maize and three for sorghum. Somali and international researchers of onshore and offshore marine catches by domestic and foreign The Fishery Subsector Has Strong Growth Potential vessels have fluctuated, but they show an increasing Somalia has the longest coastline in Africa (3,333 trend, with current levels between one-sixth and one- kilometers) and a large Economic Exclusive Zone fourth the guesstimated annual production potential (EEZ). While its coastal shelf is narrow and thus with of about 835,000 tons. Reliable assessments of 17 limited habitat for demersal (bottom feeder) fish species, however, find that 8—swordfish, striped stocks, except off the Puntland coast, the Somali marlin, emperors, goatfish, snapper, sharks and rays Large Marine Ecosystem supports a wide variety (which represent as much as 40 percent of the catch of ecosystems and fish, from large pelagic (highly of artisanal fisheries), grouper, and grunts—were migratory) species such as tuna to smaller pelagic fished unsustainably. species such as sardines, as well as crustaceans and other reef species. “Despite Somalia’s rich fishing grounds, Fish consumption in Somalia remains one of the coastal fishing has remained small-scale lowest in Africa, but increased urbanization and the and artisanal while foreign commercial return of diaspora members with newly acquired preferences have fueled rapid growth in domestic vessels have enjoyed both legal and demand for fresh fish. Coastal communities have illegal harvesting offshore.” traditionally relied on fishing for both their food security and their livelihood, exporting fish to Kenya, Tanzania, and the Arabian Peninsula. Maritime and fisheries’ governances are still in their infancy, with provisions for licensing defined Weak or absent governments and lack of active partly under the 2014 federal fisheries law, which fishery management during the past three decades still lacks important provisions, and partly under have allowed both artisanal fishing and (legal some states’ legislation or regulations. Revenue and illegal) fishing activity by foreign vessels to sharing between federal and state governments expand without controls. The result has been for the licenses recently granted remains to be xii Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Executive Summary implemented. Despite stated ambitions, neither the and processed products. While ensuring country federal nor state ministries have been transparent ownership and enhanced coordination, providing about the licenses they have issued, and they do not economic opportunities and jobs for youth, and have the capacity to monitor or control fisheries, leveraging remittances from the diaspora for especially offshore. investment rather than consumption, this strategy should aim at achieving the following objectives: The main challenges for the subsector are (a) the • Increase crop production beyond prewar lack or poor functioning of cold-chain facilities, (b) inadequate fish landing facilities at all major ports, levels, through full rehabilitation of prewar (c) minimal processing ventures, and (d) the lack of public infrastructure and adoption of improved or very poor transport links between major urban technologies and climate-smart agriculture centers and isolated fishing communities along the practices. coast, many of which remain reliant on trading with • Protect and improve the natural environment, Yemeni vessels for their income. in light of the vulnerability of all agricultural subsectors to the negative impact of climate There is a strong consensus among scientists and change. fishers alike that considerable potential exists for • Transform private sector–led production systems sustainable expansion of many fisheries within in all subsectors into modern, commercial, and Somali waters, especially of tuna and oceanic tuna-like species. Fish waste could be also used in a competitive ones that add value through agro- variety of ways, including for human consumption, processing. livestock feed, and energy generation. Effective • Strengthen household resilience and reduce management, supervision and monitoring, and hunger and malnutrition, including by public investment and technical assistance plans, introducing more modern postharvest long- including for support to expansion plans by fishers’ term storage technologies and drought risk cooperatives and the private sector, are needed mitigation. to ensure the sustainability of all fisheries. Two prerequisites for improvement are stock and catch Recommendations for addressing specific challenges assessments and ecosystem analysis as well as include the following: effective enforcement of existing regulations. • Climate change. Full implementation of Somalia’s well thought-out indicative action Stronger Institutions, Management, Extension plan is needed to foster the adaptation of Services, and Infrastructure Are Needed to Support its agricultural systems for improved climate Private Investment in Production and Markets resilience. This should focus on, inter alia, In the short to medium term, recovery of agricultural supporting adoption and scale up of climate- production, especially for crops, to prewar levels smart agriculture practices and innovations. depends on better security; stronger public and • Management of natural resources and community institutions; and at least a start toward rangeland. There is a pressing need to clarify rehabilitating the dilapidated flood control, irrigation, land tenure arrangements; reach consensus and transport infrastructure. In the longer term, over policies and their implementation with the sector’s growth potential can be realized only local communities; improve communities’ by developing and implementing a comprehensive sector development strategy, supported by effective capacity to manage their natural resources in institutions and interventions that harness the a sustainable manner; and support rangeland dynamism of its private sector in both primary rehabilitation with technical assistance and production and domestic and foreign trade of inputs public investments for (a) intensified soil and Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia xiii Executive Summary water conservation, (b) reforestation and • Crops. A holistic medium-term program is afforestation, (c) the reseeding of pastures, required to deliver quick, large, and sustainable (d) the planting of drought-resistant and fast- production and productivity gains for staple growing grasses and legumes, (e) the use of commodities and more diversification into micro-catchments to enhance water filtration horticulture and other high-value crops for both and various flood control technologies. improved incomes and nutritional outcomes. • Charcoal, gums, and resins. An expanded The main components should include (a) program of action to reduce charcoal production, institutional and human capacity building; especially from acacia trees, should be the (b) rehabilitation of prewar flood control and top priority for all regional governments. A irrigation infrastructure along the two major second priority for the Puntland and Somaliland rivers in southern Somalia; (c) expansion of rain governments and donors supporting them water catchment and moisture conservation and should be to protect all other trees, including introduction of control measures for soil erosion trees that produce frankincense, myrrh, and gully formation in the central and northern and gum Arabic, by fostering and enforcing regions; (d) rehabilitation of prewar trunk and sustainable tapping methods and frequency. rural roads to improve transportation of inputs Policy makers should also promote value addition to farms and of produce to markets; and (e) by supporting new private investments in better- improved access to and adoption of productivity- quality processing of all gums and resins, as well enhancing and resilient technologies (climate- as other forestry products, such as aloe vera. smart agriculture practices). The first four • Livestock. A top priority of public policy and components should be pursued in parallel, rather assistance should be building capacity along than sequentially, as institution building without the entire value chain to cope with animal investment in infrastructure will not yield gains, disease threats, coupled with open and regular and initial gains in production and productivity dialogue with importing countries to review and from investment in infrastructure will likely update sanitary standards and other import prove unsustainable without complementary requirements. Other priorities include promoting institution and capacity building. innovative breeding and good husbandry practices and strengthening rangeland “Weak institutions, insecurity, a use policies, planning, and enforcement, persistent insurgency, dilapidated with community participation. Support is infrastructure, environmental recommended for integrated production degradation, and climate change systems, to leverage the interlinkages between are major obstacles to Somalia’s crop agriculture and peri-urban livestock economic development.” rearing systems for an expanded and more efficient feed supply chain and the promotion of more value addition and diversification • Fishery. The strongest growth prospects for opportunities. Rangeland use policies, planning, fishery are for small pelagic and tuna and tuna- and enforcement, especially regarding private like species that migrate through Somalia’s highly enclosures, also need strengthening. With productive oceanic waters during the southwest strong promotion of private sector–led value monsoon. Their realization will depend largely addition and the processing of animal products, on private investment in underexploited offshore output of livestock products could easily exceed fisheries; the development of coastal and inland the modest official targets. fisheries, including cold chains for domestic xiv Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Executive Summary markets and improved nutrition; and processing. levels, based on a sound legal framework and All levels of governments, in partnership the rule of law for private investors, including with international fishery and development for licensing; and (c) design and cost estimates, organizations, academic institutions, and adoption, and implementation of master plans donors, have crucial roles to play. They can for developing fish landing sites at all five major help provide (a) basic field data collection ports and redevelopment of related transport and indicators estimation, as well as capacity infrastructure, including rural roads connecting building in teaching, research, and professional small fishing communities to main roads and skills; (b) a clear and effective system of fishery urban markets. management, at both the federal and regional Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia xv Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed Xogtani waa warbixin ay si wada jir ah ay u soo hanaankii lagu ilaalinayey fatahaada, waraabka, saareen Baanka aduunka iyo hay’adda cuntada iyo kaabayaasha wadooyinka iyo gaadiidka ee gobolkada beeraha Qaramada Midoobay ee FAO, waana qayb bartahama iyo koonfurta, waxayna arrimahaan ka mid ah balaarinta dhaqaalaha iyo qaybta shaqada dhamaantood si daran hoos ugu dhigeen wax soo ee ay tahay inay fuliyaan hay’addaha horumarinta, saarkii dallagga. si ay uga caawiyaan qorshaha horumarineed ee Soomaaliya (iyadoo loo marayo qorshaynta qaybta Inkastoo xoolaha iyo dalagyadu weli ay yihiin iyo barnaamijyada) iyo fulinta qorshaha qaran ee ilaha muhiimka ah ee dhaq dhaqaaqa dhaqaale, horumarinta ee wakhtigaan jira iyo sidii loogu diyaarin shaqaalaynta iyo wax dhoofinta Soomaaliya. lahaa kan xiga. Warbixintu waxay daaha ka qaadaysaa (Inkastoo wadanku uu leeyahay khayraad qani ah oo soo jireenka wax qabadka dhamaan dhinaycada kala dhinaca kalluumaysiga, kaluumaysiga xeebuhu waa duwan ee beeraha, kalana ah xoolaha, dalagyada, mid heerkiisu hooseeyo iyo iyadoo taa bedelkeed kaymaha iyo kalluumaysiga iyo duruufaha hab maraakiib jariif ah oo shisheeye ay ku daabulanayaan raaca beerasho. Waxay sidoo kale qeexaysaa qayb kalluumaysi isugu jira mid sharci ah iyo mid sharci hoosaadyada muhiimka ah ee tilmaamaya joogtaynta darro ah oo ay ka jilaabanayaan gudaha badda). horumarinta qaybahaan ee wakhtiga dhexe iyo kan Qiyaasta 49% dadku waxay ku nool yihiin dhulka dheer, sidoo kale xalinta caqabadaha, muhiimadda miyiga ah, iyadoo ay soo raacdo 46% dadka in ay leedahay in kor loo qaado wax soo saarka, shaqeeyaa ay ka hawl galaan beeraha (25% qodaalka siyaasadda iyo qaybaha maal gashiga dalagyada, 9% xoolo raacista, 4% kalluumaysiga iyo 7% oo ah qaybo shaqooyin la xiriira hawlahaan aan Hay’addaha maamul oo tamar daran, amaan darada, soo sheegnay). kooxaha wax iska caabinta, kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha oo liita, nabad guurka deegaanka iyo isbedelka Si balaaran waxaa u kordhay arrimaha balaarinta la cimilada ayaana ah qaybaha ugu waaweyn ee garba xiriirta dhaqaalaha ee muhiimka u ah wax soo saarka duubka u xiray horumarka dhaqaalaha Soomaaliya, xoolaha iyo dhoofka, beeruhu waxay wadaagaan in khaas ahaan gobollada bartamaha iyo koonfurta. dakhliga guud ee dalka GDP ay si cad u kordhiyeen Iyadoo ay jiraan caqabadaan oo ay weheliyaan iyagoo ka soo qaaday heerkii hore ee ahaa62% dhibaatooyinka la xiriira abaaraha daran ee gaarsiyeyna 75% ama ka badan. Ka hor dagaalkii wakhtiyadii la soo dhaafay ku dhuftay, ayaa beeraha sokeeye, dhinaca wax soo saarka dalaggu wuxuu ay yihiin, ahaanna doonaan kuwo udub dhexaad u ah ahaa kan labaad ee ugu balaaran ee laga helo horumarinta dhaqaalaha wadanka. dakhliga guud ee dalka GDP iyo wax dhoofinta, marka laga soo tago xoolaha oo iyagu ahaa kan koowaad. Beeruhu weli waa qayb muhiim u ah kororka Welina wuxuu muhiim u yahay wax soo saarku haqab dhaqaalaha Soomaaliya iyo yaraynta Saboolnimada beelka cuntada, laakiin wax ku kordhinta dhaqaalaha 30kii sano ee la soo dhaafay qaybaha xoolaha iyo waa mid aad uga yar siduu ahaan jiray, marka la eego dalagyada waxay ahaayeen kuwo dhibaatooyinka iyo sodonkii sano ee la soo dhaafay, wax soo saarka dayaca haystaa sii kordhayaan, sidoo kale saamaynta firalayda wuxuu hoos u dhacay qiyaastii 60% marka dhibaatada dhinaca deegaanka ayaa in badan ku soo laga soo bilaabo sanadkii 1989. noq noqotay, abaaraha iyo daadadka oo iyana joogto noqday. Qodbadaan oo ay weheliyaan amaan darada Waxaase amaan mudan xoolaha, isu geyn ahaan wax iyo jiritaan la’aanta ama tamar darida hay’adihii dhoofinta beeraha kor u qaaday tan iyo dhamaadkii dawliga ahaa waxay keeneen inay sii xumaadaan sanadkii 2000, iyagoo gaaray sanadkii 2015 $634 xvi Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed milyan, waayna shan goor ka badan yahay qiimahaani Soomaaliya waxay wajahaysaa wax soo saarka ka hor dagaalkii sokeeye. Beeruhu waxay u taagan cunada oo aad hoos ugu dhacay wakhti dheer, iyadoo yihiin 93% wax dhoofinta guud, waxayna si tar tiir wax soo saarka guduhu keliya ka yahay 22% baahida bah hoos uga soo dhacayeen 95% ka hor dagaalkii cunada firayda ee qofka. Xitaa marka la eego xiliyada sokeeye. Dhoofka xoolaha weli waa mid aad u beeruhu si wanaagsan u baxee, wax soo saarka balaaran, kor u kiciisuna waa mid cad oo ahaa 10 intii guduhu wuxuu keliya oo uu quudiyaa 40 – 50% u dhaxaysa dhamaadkii sanadihii 1980maadkii iyo baahida dadka ee dhinaca firalayda. Bulshooyinka bartamihii 2010. Laakiin abaaraha hadda jira iyo dib reer guuraaga, beeralayda iyo kaluumaysatadu u soo cusboonaysiinta xanibaadda Sucuudi Carayba waxay dhamaan dhibane u noqdeen nafaqa daro ku xanibtay inay xoolo ka soo dhoofsato Soomaaliya soo jiitantay. Aasaaska keenay cuna yaraanta waxay keentay in qiimahii xoolaha la dhoofinayey uu daranna waa bur burka ku dhacay habkii waraabka hoos u dhaco sanadihii 2016 iyo 2017. iyo kaabayaashii ilaalinta daadadka, iyadoo ay la daala dhacayaan duruufaha ka dhashay dagaaladii Dhoofka sisintu waa shayga labaad ee ugu balaaran sokeeye ee ka dhacayey dhulal badan oo miyiga ee Soomaaliya dhoofiso. Markii uu istaagay dhoofkii bartamaha iyo koonfurta Soomaaliya ah. Qodobada musku, liin dhanaan la qalajiyey ayaa noqotay waxa kale ee dhibaatada qaybta ka ah waa saboolnimada, kaliya ee la dhoofin karo iyadoo ay ka mid ahaayeen sinaan la’aanta dhinaca ragga iyo dumarka, kororta sidoo kale khudaar iyo geed miroodyo. Dhibaatada xad dhaafka ah ee tirade dadka, helitaanka biyaha oo dhoofka dhuxusha ee loo dhoofinayey wadamada adag, saxada iyo adeegyada caafimaadka iyo abaaro khaliijka ayaa si balaaran hoos ugu dhacay tan iyo intii daran oo soo noq noqday. dawladda federaalka iyo kuwa maamul goboleedyadu ay dhaqan geliyaan qaraarkii lagu mamnuucayey Kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha oo liita iyo xirfadda dhoofinta dhuxusah ee soo baxay 2012, laakiin weli hoosaysa oo dib u dhigay horumarinta beeraha waa mid ka socota meelaha qaar, iyadoo loo marayo Soomaaliya waa wadan qalayl xigeen ah, waa meel dariiqyo aan rasmi ahayn iyo habab aan kala cadayn biyuhu yihiin ilaha nololeed ee ugu muhiimsan oo oo lagu raro. isku dhacyada dhex mara reer guuraada iyo beeralay xoolo dhaqatada ay ka dhashaan. Kaabayaasha Marka lagu daro baahida cunada gudaha oo sii dhinaca biyaha waxay ka yimaaddaan webiga iyo biyo kordhaysa (taasoo ay keentay tirade dadka oo sii laga soo saaro dhulka hoostiisa, kuwasoo si daran kordhaysa, magaalaynta iyo taageerada balaaran ee iyana ay u sii xumaanayeen tan iyo markii dagaalada dhinaca dhaqaalaha ah kana imanaysa xawaaladaha) sokeeye ka bilowdeen gobollada bartamaha iyo iyo baaba’a ku yimid wax soo saarkii dalaygada koonfurta, waxaana arrimahaan ka dhashay in la gudaha waxay tani si balaaran u keentay inay kordhaan waayo dayactirkii iyo hagaajintii joogtada ahayd ee cuntada la soo dhoofinayo. Wax soo dejinta beeraha ay u baahnaayeen, iyadoo ay u sii raacday amaan waxay kor u qacday qiyaasta 18, iyadoo gaartay daro raagtay, tamar daradda haysata hay’adahii sanadkii 2015 1.5 bilyan oo dollar, iyadoo ahayd celi dawladda iyo maqnaanshaha hay’adihii bulsho. celiska guud qiyaasta sanadihii 1980maadkii 82 milyan Iyadoo ay mar horeba jireen dhibaatoyin dhinaca oo dollar. Xitaa ka hor abaarahan hadda jira, cunada wadooyinka oo ahaa kuwo ay xaaladoodu aad u gargaarka iyo cunooyinka soo dibadda laga keeno liidata gobollada bartamaha iyo koonfurta. Labada waxay ahaayeen kuwo aad u balaaran marka loo eego dhinaca ee biyaha iyo kaabayaasha wadooyinka weli firalayda ka soo baxda gudaha wadanka. Sidoo kale waa kuwo shaqaynaya iyo iyagoo si tartiib ah ugu sii soo dejinta qaadka ayaa iyana kor u kacday, iyadoo balaaranayey gobollada waqooyiga, laakiin weli waa uu leeyahay saamayn xun oo dhinaca caafimaadka, kuwo ka fog inay daboolaan baahida. nolosha qoyska iyo wax soo saarka qofka Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia xvii Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed Waxaa ka dhashay, badbaadintii xoolaha xilligii abaarta qabaa’ilku leeyahay oo ka yimid gobollada dhexe darani jirtay waxay keentay in dhaqaale badani ku oo aan wax aqoon iyo xirfad beerasho oo ay ku sii baxo iyo in aan si gaar ah loo heli karin haamaha wadi karaan wax soo saarka lahayn ayaa qabsaday biyaha, dhinaca dhulalka qodaalka waraabkii ayaa dhul beereedkii muhiimka ah ahaa ee ku yaalay isana dhibaato ku dhacday wuxuuna hoos uga gobolka Shabeellaha Hoose. Maamulka Siyaasadda dhacay qiyaastana kala bar intii uu ahaa dagaalka ka (iyo canshuurta) ee meelo badan oo webiyada iyo hor oo lagu qiyaasay 22,950 higtar, iyadoo abaaraha marinada webiyada ah weli waxaa si balaaran ugu wakhtiyadaan danbe jiraana ay si daran hoos ugu hardamaya ururka Alshabaab, oo ah urur wax iska sii dhigeen. Waxaa xumaaday kaabayaasha lagu caabin argagixiso ah, iyo ciidamada dawladda oo ay qabto biyaha roobka iyo awoodoodii tanoo yaraysay taageerayaan cutubyo ka tirsan ciidamada nabad dhulkii qodaalka eek u tiirsanaa roobka. Sidoo kale ilaalinta ee Midowga Afrika ka socda. Sii socoshada beeralayda wax soo saarka waxaa dhibaato iyo qiimo amaan darada jirta waxay keentay khatar dhianca aad u sareeya ku ah sidii ay wax soo saarkooda ugu gaaritaankii beeraha iyo suuqyada, waxay kordhisay iib geyn lahaayeen suuqyada magaalooyinka, iyadoo qiimahii wax lagu soo qaadayey iyo iyadoo ka dhigtay mararka qaarkood ay aad u adagtahay inay gaaraan. wax soo saarkii mid aan wax faaiido ah laga helayn. Xaaladaha noocaan ahi sidoo kale waxay keeneen in Keliya waxa wanaagsan ee dhinaca kaabaha soo fara gelintii hay’addaha gargaarka ay caqabado dhaqaalaha ee hormaray tan iyo markii ay dagaalada balaaran la kulmaan. Wasaradihii heer Federaal iyo sokeeye bilowdeen waa adeegyada isgaarsiinta heer dawlad goboleed iyana adeegyaday u fidin taleefonada gacanta oo iyagu balaartay. Waxay lahaayeen beeraha waxay noqdeen kuwo xadidan, siiyeen fursad u ogolaanaysa dadka miyiga ku nool tamar daran, oo aan ku filnayn, maxaa yeelay shaqaale inanay si fudud ula xiriiraan suuqyada magaalooyinka xirfadda leh iyo dhaqaalaha ayaa ku yar, waxaana ku ku dhow oo ay kaga helaan xog, iyaguna ay ku adag gaaritaanka inta badan dhulka miyiga. waydiiyaan qiimaha, wuxuu u fududeeyey inay lacago kaga helaan qurba joogta iyo inay ku iibsadaan Sidoo kale waxay keentay tani banaanaasho dhamaan noocyada adeegyada ay u bahan yihiin iyo siyaasaddii shaqooyinka, kormeerka iyo adeegyadii sidoo kale waxay ka helaan warbixinaha ay u bahan caadi lahaa ay bixin lahayd dawladdu. Muranka yihiin ee gudaha iyo kuwa horumarinta caalamiga ah daaqsinka ee u dhexeeya qabaailka deriska ah wuxuu iyo adeegyada gudaha ah ee la heli karo. noqday mid caan noqday tan markii ay bur burtay dawladdi. Waxaana wakhtiyadaan danbe sii balaarana Dhinaca waxbarashada, bulsho badan iyo qaybaha dhulalka sida gaarka ah looga xiranayo dhulkii furnaa gaarka loo leeyahay ayaa taageeray dugsiyo farsamo ee soo jireenka u ahaa dhul daaqsimeedka, khaas iyo jaamacado ay aas aaseen 20kii sano ee la ahaan meelaha xooluhu u kala guurayeen iyo soo dhaafay, goobahaan waxbarasho qaarkood gaadiidka degsiiooyinka iyo magaalooyinka, ayaa sii ayaa bixiya barnaamijyo heerka koowaad ee kordhiyey xasaradda. Xitaa meelaha xooga amaanka waxbarashada sare ee digriiga oo ah cilmiga xoolaha, wanaagsan leh ee gobollada waqooyi, mana jirto dalagyada, iyo sayniska kalluumaysiga. Dadaladaan hay’ad dawladeed ama mid bulsho oo awood u waa kuwo aan ku filayn inay yareeyaan baahida leh inay xaliso muranada ku aadan dhinacaan dhul ka taagan yaraanta dadkii xirfad layaasha ahaa ee daaqsimeedka. dhinaca horumarinta beeraha. Dhamays tirka diwaan gelinta beeraha ka samata Amaanka iyo hay’addaha maamul oo liita oo baxay dagaalka sokeeye, laakiin iyadoon lahayn dhibaato ku ah soo kabashada beeraha cadayn iyo sharci, cidda dhulka leh ee iyagu ka tegey Dagaalka sokeeye ee mudada dheer socday ayaa beerahooda ku yaalay koonfurta Somaaliya wakhtigii keenay amaan daro ba’an oo ka jirta koonfurta dagaalada sokeeye weli ma ahan kuwo awooda inay iyo bartamaha Soomaaliya. Kooxo hubaysan oo dib u sheegtaan dhulkoodii, sababo la xiriira amaan xviii Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed darada, waxaa kale oo liita habka dhex dhexaadinta goboleedyada, sidoo kale wadamada soo dhoofsada dhaqanka iyo iyadoo ay meesha ka maqan tahay ee ku yaal gacanka khaliidja, baahinta iyo soo hay’adihii garsoor ee dawliga ahaa. Taas bedelkeed saarista shooladaha gaasta ku shaqeeya ee wax lagu waxay kaga duwan yihiin gobolkada Waqooyi inay karsado iyo kororka dhinaca wacyi gelinta ee dhianca ka jiraan muranno aad u yar oo dhinaca dhulka, deegaanka oo isna si wanaagsan ku socday ayaana goboladaas lahaanshaha dhulka laguma murmo iyo yareeyey doonistii iyo soo saaristii dhuxusa. wasaaradda beeraha oo bixisa ruqsado cadaynta dhul beereedka cusub ee loo bixinayo in beero laga Dhamaadkii sanadihii 1980maadkii, Soomaaliya dhigo (Inta badan kuwa cusub, beeralayda yar yar). waxay ahayd wadanka aduunka ugu weyn ee soo saara, dhoofiyaha xabagta maydiga iyo mal malka. Nabaad guurka deeganka iyo isbedelka cimilada oo Wax soo saarkeedii iyo dhoofka qayb ahaan waxay iyana keenay caqabado cusub la xiriirtaa iyadoo xad dhaaf noqota iyo jiilasha Xaalufka daran ee kaymaha iyo nabaad guurka ciidda cusub ee geedaha ka dhaxlay waalidkood oo si aan ee ka imanaya hawlaha aan sharciga ah ayn ee hagaagsanayn xabagta u gura, iyagoo aan fiirinaya dadku ku samaynayaan deegaanka, bur burinta dhul keliya sida ay geedka xabagta ugu badan uga heli daaqsimeedka iyo isbedelka cimilada ayaa keliya aan karaan, halka aysan wax ogaal ah u lahayn bed qabka khatar ku ahayn kororka dhaqaalaha ee sidoo kale caafimaad ee geedka wakhtiga dheer. waxay dhibaato weyn ku tahay hab dhaqankii soo jireen ee xool raacatada Soomaaliyeed iyo beeralayda Dhacdooyinka cimilada la xiriira; oo ay ka mid yihiin wax ku beerta roobka. Sanadkii 2014 kaymuhu waxay isbedelka hawada iyo heerkulka oogada badda, dhulka wadanka ka ahaayeen 10%, iyagoona ahaa ka roobabka, huurka, hogashada daruuraha, culaysyada hor 1982 ahaa 62%. Iyadoo ay dhinaca socdaan dhul deegaan iyo xawaaraha dabaysah ayaa mar horeba daaqsimeedkii oo si gaar ah gaar loo xirtay iyo qoysas noqday kuwo sis ii kordhaysa aan loo saadaalin deegaamayn joogto ah ka sameeyey dhulkaas ayaa karin oo xad dhaaf ah kana jira geeska Afrika. Sideed uga sii daray xaalufinta kaymaha, dhibatooyinkaanna abaarood oo dhacay 40kii sano ee la soo dhaafay weli waa kuwo si xawli leh ku socoda. Waxaa iyana ayaana si daran waxyeelo ugu geystay dalaggga iyo yaraaday qul qulkii webiyadda tanoo ay keentay wax soo saarkii xoolaha ee Soomaaliya. Bilowgii kororka isticmaalka biyaha ee biyo qabatinada dhulka 2017, saamayn ka dhalatay dhowr xilli roobaad oo sare ee Ethiopia, arrintaani sidoo kale waxay khatar baaqday ayaa abuuray dhibaato bani’aadanimo oo ku noqotay in waraab loo helo dalagyada. aad u daran, taasoo keentay khatar ah in macaluuli ka dhacdo meelo yar. Dhibatada ugu balaaran ee ku dhacday xaalufinta loo geystay dhul daaqsimeedka waxay ahayd mid Cimilada geeska afrika waxay sii noqonaysaa mid aad aad u balaaran iyadoona si daran loo jaray geed u sii qalalan, kulul, qalafsan, aadna u sii xad dhaaf ah qodoxlaha quraca oo laga jaro dhuxuso, taasoo tobanaankii sano ee la soo dhaafay , tanoo yaraysa dhoofkeeda lagu qiyaasay in sanadkii ay gaarto 56 dlagyadii, xoolihii, kalluumaysigii iyo kaymihii ay ku milyan oo dollar, waa qiyaasta la sameeyey 2011, tiirsanaayeen hab nololeedka dadku. Inta badan tanoo ahayd mid aan jirin ka hor dagaalkii sokeeye ee cimilada la saadaaliyo waxay tustaa roobab badan, 1990meeyadii. Ganacsigaani wuxuu noqday mid ay si taasoo cadaynaysa soo jireenka wixii dhowanahay weyn gancata ugu hayaan iyo inuu yahay il dhaqaale iyo wakhti horeba, soojeedimaha cimiladuna waxay oo ay canshuur ka heleen ururka Alshabaab. Tan noqon donaan kuwo qalayl sii noqdo. Dhamaan iyo sanadkii 2012, waxaa sii kordhayey in la dhaqan saynis yahanadu waxay isku raaceen in mustaqbalka geliyo meel marinta xakamaynta dhoofinta dhuxusha ay sii kululaanayso tanoo si la taaban karo iyo si joogto ee ay soo jeedisay dawladda federaalka iyo maamul ahba si daran u saamaynaysa helitaankii roobabka. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia xix Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed Duruufaha ka dhashay sibedeladaan waxay six un u u luminaya nacfigii ku jiray. Waxaa taasi keentay inay saameeyeen beeraha Soomaaliya, heerkulka hawada kororta baahida loo qabo firalayda iyo dalagyada kale ee sareeya wuxu kor u qaadi doonaa qaab samaysankii ee cusub iyo xitaa raashinka gargarka ee dadka loogu ciidda, soo bixiddii dhirta iyo oogada biyaha. Is deeqay in la iibiyo laguna quudiyo xoolaha. bedbedlada badan iyo roobabka xad dhaafka ah waxay xumaynayaan ciida tanoo keenaysa nabaad Inkastoo ay si wanaagsan ula qabsadeen cimilada guur iyo inay roganto, in biyo yari dhulka galaan iyo in dhibta badan iyo cimilada deegaan, xoolaha helitaanka biyaha oogada dhulku ay yaraadaan tanoo Soomaaliya waxay caan ku yihin miisaan h ooseeya saamaynaysa bixitaanka geedaha. Saamaynaha kale iyo caano yai, iyadoo keliya xoolaha culus loo xusho ee suurta galka ah ee ay keenayso waxaa ka mid in la qasho ama la dhoofiyo halkii iyaga laga sii tabci ah iyadoo yaraynaysa wax soo saarka cawska iyo lahaa. Maqnaanshaha barnaamijyadii caafimaadka helitaanka biyaha, waxayna tani si xun saamayn ugu xoolaha iyo hay’addihii ku shaqada lahaa, qaybaha yeelanaysaa xoolo raacatada iyo arrimaha la xiriira gaarka loo leeyahay iyo ururo takhaatiir xoolaad hab nololeedkooda. Kororka heerkulka badda iyo oo ay maal geliyeen la hawl galayaan horuamrinta kor u kaceedu waxay sidoo kale yaraynaysaa wax soo ah ayaa bixinayey adeegyo aad u mihii ah oo saarka kaluunka, waxayna isbedel ku samaynaysaa daaweynta xoolaha ah. Dadalada noocaan ahi ma wixii laga helayey. ahan kuwo ku filan inay xaliyaan khatarta daran ee ka imaanaysa cudurada xoolaha, kuwaasoo ku dhacaya Wax qabad xoog leh oo lagu sameeyo nolosha xoolaha ayna ka dhalatay xayiraadda dhoofkooda la xoolaha waxay ka hor tagtaa wax soo saarka liita saarayo. Joojintii ugu danbaysay ee dhoofka xoolaha xoolaha ee Sucuudiga sameeyey waxay ahayd dhamaadkii Xoolaha nool weli waa kuwo ay ku tiirsan tahay sanadkii 2016, waxay keliya ahayd mid ku meel gaar ah qaninimada wax haysiga qoyska Soomaaliyeed, waa wakhtigii July ilaa Sebteembar 2017, sidoo kale bilowgii kuwa ugu balaaran ee ah waxa wadanku dhoofiyo, sanadkaan 2018 waa mid weli sii socota. waana khayraad dhaqaale oo muhiim u ah nolosha qaybo badan oo ka mid ah dadka. Habka ugu weyn Qaybtaan xooluhu waxay si la yaableh u muujisay ee wax soo saarkooduna waa habka xoolo raacato adkaysi, inkastoo suuq geynta xoolaha, caaifmaadka iyo beeralay xoolo dhaqato, waxa ugu badan ee iyo wanaajinta bed qabka xoolaha iyo wax soo saarkooda ay six un u saamaysay abaaraha laga helaana waa nacfiga xoolaha (waxaana ugu wakhtiyadaan danbe jiraa. Suuq geynta xoolaha badan nacfigaas xoolaha laga helo geela) oo ay waxaa lagu qiyaasay 53 milyan oo dollar sanadki soo kordhaysay hab dhaqashada xoolaha ee aan 2014 tanoo si weyn uga koraysa intii la diwaan geliyey ahayn kuwa guur guura. Waxayna nacfiga xoolahaa dhamaadkii sanadihii 1980maadkii oo ahayd qiyaasta aan guur guurini quudiyaan magaalooyinka iyo 40 milyan oo dollar. Soomaaliya waxay leedahay suuqyada ku xiran magaalooyinka oo ay siiyaan geela ugu badan oo tiro ahaan lagu sheegay 7.1 caano dhay ah, iyadoo aysan jirin haba habayn ah milyan sanadkii 2016, tanoo ka badan wadan kastoo oo kale oo la mariyo. kale oo dunida ah geela jooga. Maalin gelin joogto ah horumarinta tayda xoolaha ah waxay gacan ka Waxaa koreeye dalabadka iyo kororka nacfiga geysatay inay si wanaagsan u hormariso dhoofka xoolaha oo wanaagsan tayana leh oo hab ganacsi xoolaha, waxaana ka mid ah horumarinadaas taranta ah ku yimaadda, lagana helo suuqyada iyo goobaha oo ah qiimaha tanoo keentay in si wanagsan ay kor dekedaha ah. Sidaa darted habka ugu weyn ee ugu kacdo dakhliga xoolaha ka soo xerooda oo gaaray wax soo saarka quudinta xoolaha waa cawska sanadkii 2015 aduun gaaraya 533 milyan oo dollar iyo cagaarka kale ee ka baxa dhul daaqsimeedka, tanoo aad uga koraysa dhaqaalihii ka soo bixi jiray kuwaasoo leh heer nafaqo oo liita. Wax soo saarka ka hor dagaaladii sokeeye. Habaynta nacfiga xoolaha ka yimaadda cawskaanna waa mid yar, sidoo kale waa mid aad u yar, kana hooseeya heerka caadiga ah habka kaydinta ayaa isna liita, kaasoo si dhakhso ah ee la rabay. xx Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed Wax soo saarka caanaha, khaas ahaan geela, wuxuu kuwo aad u yar laakiin si tartiib ah ku koraya. In ahaa mid si tartiib ah u kobcayey tan iyo dhamaadkii qaybtaan la balaariyo waxaa caqabad ku ah yaraanta sanadihii 1980maadkii, wuxuna gaaray qiimaha wax iyo qiimaha koreeya ee ku baxaya, kharashkaas soo saar ee suuqa uu geelu ku leeyahay 3.3 bilyan badanna waxaa ka mid ah quudinta digaagga iyo oo dollar sanadkii 2014. Soomaaliya waxay weli soo waxa lagu quudinayo helitaankeeda. dhoofsataa nacfiga xoolaha iyadoo aan iyadu wax nacfigeeda xoolaha ah aan dhoofin. Bilowgii sanadkii Wax tarka qaybhoosaadka dalaggu waa mid liita, 2017 waxaa saamayn k yeeshay wax soo saarkii laakiin muhiimadda uu u leeyahay in ka kobciyo caanaha abaartii iyadoo dhintay kala bar caanihii waa mid aad u saraysa geella iyo saddexdii meeloodba laba meelood ka Qiyaasta 3 milyan oo higtar oo ka ah qiyaasta dhulka dhintay caanihii lod’da iyo riyaha. Qaab dhismeedka beereedka Soomaaliya 5% ayaa la beeraa, tiradaan garba duubka u xiray in nacfiga xooluhu gaari heer 2.3 milyan oo ka mid ah waa kuwo lagu beero roobka laga faa’iidayso waxaa ka mid ah saamaynta ay iyo 700 oo kun oo higtar oo lagu beero bam biyaha soo keentay wanaajinta iyo caafimadka nolosha xoolaha, tuuro ama hab waraab la maamulo. Sanadihii danbe, sidoo kale dhaqan gelinta iyo heerka saxo oo liita, keliya qaybo ka mid ah dhulka la waraabin karo ayaa maqnaanshaha habaynta lagu sameeyo tayada la waraabiyey, lana beeray, taasoo ah wax ka yar 20% caanaha, dariiqyo suuq geyn oo aan jirin, jidadka oo inta ku haboon iyo kala bar dhulka la waraabin jiray liita, cimilada aadka u kulul iyo huurka oo khasaariya ka hor dagaalkii. Qiyaasta saddex meelood oo laba wax soo saarka nacfiga xoolaha iyo maqnaasnshaha meelood oo dhulka beerashada ku haboon ah, oo aasaaska dhaqaale. ah beeraha roobka iyo kuwa waraabka, waa dhul wax dhalis leh una dhexeeya inta badan labada webi Wax soo saarka hilib cusub wuxuu kordhiyey in ee gobollada koonfurta. Qaybo yar yar oo beeraha ay kororto baahida gudaha, laakiin wuxuu weli ka roobka ah oo ku yaal gobollada waqooyi galbeed iyo hooseeya heerkii loo baahnaa in looga faa’iidaysto. meelo ku yaal dhulka xeebaha ee la beero eek u yaal Habaynta hilibka ganacsiga loogu tala galay waa gobollad waqoyi bari ayaa iyana kaalinta saddexaad mid aad u yar, keliyana loo adeesado adhiga jiqiiqa soo gelaya. Meelaha roobka wax lagu beerto waxaa ah iyo hilibka lo’da ee dhoofka loogu tala galay. biyo lagala soo baxaa dhulka hoostiisa, biyaha roobka Inuu kobcana waxaa jilbaha u dhigay arrimahaan oo la qabto iyo farsamooyin qoyaanka ciidda lagu aan kor ku soo sheegnay iyo sidoo kale maamul joogteeyo. xumo. Tirade hargaha iyo saamaha marka la bar bar dhigo dhamaadkii sanadihii 1980maadkii waxay Habka waraabinta beeraha, kaasoo inta badan ahaayeen qiyaastii 7 milyan oo harag. Hargaha iyo lagu beero geleyda, sisinta iyo dagalayada kale, saamaha diyaarsani waa kuwo tayadoodu liidato, muuska, geed midhoodka kale iyo khudaarta waxay waana kuwo si aan hagaagsanayn loo megdiyey iyo wajahayaan iyana dhibaatoyin. Waxaa ka mid ah nidaamkooda kaydinta oo liidata ayaana keentay (a) caqabadahaas hoos u dhaca iyo helitaanka inay noqdaan kuwo dhaawacyo qaba. Caadiyan biyaha oogada kore ah oo dhibaato ka jirto, tanoo ka hor dagaalkii sokeeye habaynta harguhu waxay keentay dhibaato ku timid helitaanka waraabka iyo ahaayeen kuwo keliya qoraxda lagu qalajiyo iyadoo kaabayaashii lagu ilaalinayey daadka ee koonfurta aysan jirin wax laga sameeyo maqaarka oo gudaha Soomaaliya; (b) isticmaalka biyo aan ku filayn, waxay laga soo saaro. kordhisay dil dilaaca ciidda iyo haysiga biyaha, tanoo ay ka dhalatay in la waayo habka qorshaynta Xanaanada digaaggu waxay si balaran ugu siid hex isticmaalka biyaha iyo nidaaminta, (c) maamulka fidaysaa qoysaska saboolka ah. Soo dejinta digaag iyo wax dhalista ciidda oo liita, sida in lagu daro digayn, ukun maalmo lagu kobiciyey waxay madax wareer ku barwaaqeeye iyo cayayaan dile , hababkaani waa riday wax soo saarkii gudaha ee dhinaca dhaqashada kuo aan si hagaagsan loo isticmaalin haddii la digaagga, beero digaag oo gudaha ahina weli waa adegsado ama gebi ahaanba lama isticmaalo; (d) Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia xxi Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed tayada abuurka oo liidata iyo suuqyada oo keliya Xitaa sanadaha caadiga ah, cel celis ahaan wax soo noocyo kooban oo abuur ahi yaalaan; (e) waxaa yar saarka ka soo baxa beeraha waraabka iyo kuwa oo aan la heli karin qalabkii (inta badan beeralaydu roobkaba waa mid aad u hooseeya. Sidaa darted, waxay isticmaalaan qalab lagu sameeyey gacanta si haddii caqabadah si dhab ah loo xaliyo, waxay ay dhulka ugu diyaariyaan); (f) waxaa sii xumanaya tirakoobeen khubarada in cel celis ahaan wax soo wadooyinka, tanoo badisay wakhtiga iyo qiimaha saarku kordhi karo wax la taaban karo sida geleyda oo gaadiidka ee la doonayo in dalagyada lagu geeyo afarta loor soo saaraysay la gaarsiiyo lix iyo mesegada suuqa, waxayna caqabad tani ku noqotay in la oo saddex laga qaado. balaariyo wax soo saarka dalagyada; iyo (g) habab aan haboonayn oo dhinaca beerashada ah, tanoo Qayb hoosaadka kalluumaysigu waxay leedahay dhaxalkeedu noqday maqnaanshaha habkii fidinta awood muhiim u ah kororka iyo adeegyadii cilmi barista. Soomaaliya waxay leedahay xeebta ugu dheer afrika oo dhererkeedu yahay 3,333km iyo qayb balaaran Waxaa intaas dheer, muhiimadda wax soo saarka xuduud badeedka dhaqaale ee afka qalaad loogu beeraha eek u dhisan waraabka waxaa khatar ku soo gaabiyo (EEZ). Inkastoo qalfoof badeedku noqday horumarinta ay Ethiopia ku samaynayso gaaban yahay, sidaa darted xayiraad suuqa kaluunka marinada biyo qabatinnada webiyada Jubba iyo ayaa jira, intaa ka ahayn dhul xeebeedka Puntland, Shabeelle. Webiga Shabeella wuxuu si xiriir ah u Soomaaliya si balaaran dhaqaalaha badda wuxuu qalalay laba sano oo isku xigta oo kala ahayd bishii taageerayaa si balaaran oo noycada dhaqaalaha iyo Maarso 2016 iyo Diiseembar 2016 iyo bilowgii kalluunka ah, waxaana jira noocyo badan oo laga bishii Abriil 2017, waana wax cusub oo aan horay helo sida kalluunka tuna iyo qaybo kala gedisan sida loo arag. Hir gelinta buuda ee qorshayaasha cansaanyada, caydiga iyo noocyada qubada. maashaariic ee waaweyn ee Ethiia ay fulinayso waxay si cad u yaraynayaan qul qulka webiyada Isticmaalka kaluunka ee gudaha Soomaaliya weli ee ka imanaya dhulkeeda, waxaana suurto gal ah waa mid ka mid ah meelaha ugu hoseeya Afrika, 80% biyaha webi shabeelle in la waayo iyo inay ka laakiin wuxuu ku sii kordhayaa magaalooyinka iyo dhashaan waxyaalo aan lagu tala gelin sida daad si qurbo xubnaha qurbo joogta ee soo noqonaya, tanoo kedis ah ku yimaadda. keentay in ay kor u yara kacda dalabka kaluunka cusub ee ka imanaya gudaha. Bulshooyinka xeebaha Beeraha roobka, habka wax soo saar ee nidaamkaan ku nooli dhaqan ahaan kalluumaysigu wuxuu u waxaa keliya oo isticmaala qoysaska miyiga ku yahay hanaan uu ku tiirsan yahay haqab beelkooda nool si ay u daboolaan baahidooda, dalagyada ugu cunnada iyo nolosha qoyskooda, waxaana kalluunka badan ee ay beertaanna waa mesego, digir iyo wax loo dhoofiyaa Kenya, Tansaaniya, iyo wadamada aan badnayn oo geley iyo sisin ah, sidoo kale waxay gacanka carabta. beertaan qaadka iyo heedda oo iyana ka baxa waqoyi galbeed. Caqabadaha ugu waaweyn ee ay wajahayaan Daciifnimada iyo maqnaanshaha dawladeed iyo beeralayda nidaamka roobka wax ku beerta waxaa ka la’aanta hawlaha maamulka kalluumaysi 30kii sano mid ah (a) roob yaraan iyo badnaan aan la saadaalin ee la soo dhaafay ayaa waxay keentay farsamada karin oo ka duwan wixii hore, tanoo ay ka dhalatay kaluumaysi oo ah mid sharci ah iyo mid sharci daraba waxyaabo badan oo soo noq noqday oo dhinaca ah oo ay samaynayaan maraakiibta jariifka ah ee abaaraha iyo daadadka ah; (b) waxaa sii xumaaday shisheeya inay balaarato iyadoo aysan jirin wax ilaalin qabsashada biyaha roobka iyo kaabayaasha kaydinta ah oo lagu hayo. Arrintaanna waxaa ka dhashay biyaha; (c) maamulka ciidda oo liita, tanoo ay ka dhibaato ku dhacday badda iyo deegaanka xeebeed. dhalatay inuuyaraado horumarinta qoyaanka carada Waxaa intaas dheer iyadoo ay sii kordhayaan heer iyo hab biyo shub oo ku filan; iyo (d) hab liita oo kulka badda iyo heerka badda oo kor u sii kacaya farsamada beerashada ah oo ay leeyihiin. oo iyana saamayn xun ku yeelanaya shabakadaha xxii Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed kalluumaysiga ee xeebaha iyo dhulka kaluumaysiga arrimaha ku aadan sharciyada la bixiyey iyo iyagoo iyo koror ku yimaadda daadad ku soo dhaca dhulka aan lahayn awoodda ay ku ilaalin karaan ama kula hoose iyo marintada iyo sidoo kale inay aasmaan socon karaan kaluumaysiga khaas ahaan kan ka socda goobihii cusbada. badweynta. Aqoonta kallumaysatada soomaaliya ay u leeyihiin Caqabadaha ugu waaweyn ee qaybtaan waxaa kalluumaysiga waa mid aad u kooban, waayo biyaha ka mid ah (a) maqnaanshaha iyo hab isku xiran Soomaaliya waxay yihiin mid aan laga faa’iidaysan, oo adeegyada qaboojiyaha ah oo liita, (b) iyadoo iyo iyadoo ah meel aan la ilaalin. Ma jirto xog aysan jirin marsooyinka dhulka ah oo laga heli karo rasmiya oo la isku halayn karo oo ku aadan hawlaha dekedaha waaweyn oo ah adeegyada kalluumaysiga, kaluumaysiga, dhulka, suuq geynta iyo xaaladdaha (c) habka habaynta oo yar, iyo (d) maqnaanshaha deegaanka oo laga uririyey kadib iyo ka horba dagaalkii ama ay aad u hoosayso isku xirka gaadiidka ee u sokeeye. Kaluumaysiga badweynta waa mid qaab dhexeeya suuqyada ku yaal magaalooyinka waaweyn ahaan balaaran, iyadoo ay dhinac socoto in meelaha iyo bulshooyinka godoonsan ee kalluumaysatada berriga u dhow waxa ka kaluumaystaa ay yihiin ragga, ah eek u nool xeebaha, qaybo badan oo ka mid ahi iyagoona tiro ahaan ah 9,500 oo kalluumaysato waxay ku xiran yihiin kalluumaysato Yaman ka yimid wakhti buuxa ama qayb ahaan wakhti kalluumaysta, oo ay ganacsi kalluumaysi la sameeyaan, uuna ka soo oo ayna haystaa qiyaasta 1,300 oo doonyo yar yar galo dakhli. oo kalluumaysi, ganacsiga iyo taageerada hawlaha habaynta kaluunka waxaa fuliya haweenka. Tan iyo Waxaa jira arrimaha xoog leh oo ah walaacyo ay 1980, , qiyaasta ay sameeyaan koox Soomaali ah qabaan sanisyahanadu iyo kalluumaysatada oo loo iyo cilmi baarayaal caalamiya oo ay ku sameeyeen tix gelin karo muhiimado jiro kuwaasoo ah in qaybo gudaha badweynta iyo xeebaha ee ku aadan badan oo ka kalluumaysiga biyaha Soomaaliya lagu kalluumaysatada gudaha iyo kuwa shisheeye waa balaarin karo, gaar ahaan kaluunka noocyada tuunada mid isbedbedelaysay, laakiin waxay muujiyeen inuu ah. Sidoo kale kaluunta xumaaday ayaa loo isticmaali jiro koror, kaasoo ay la socoto heerarka wakhtigaan karaa qaabab kala duwan, oo ay ka mid yihiin oo u dhexeeya in lixdiiba mid iyo afartiiba mid ka mid quudinta dadka, xoolaha iyo in laga dhaliyo tamar. ah qiyaasta laga sameeyey wax soo saarka sanadle ee Maamul wax tar leh, hab isku agaasiman, kormeer, la heli karaa uu yahay 835,000 oo tan. Qiimayn la isku maalgelin guud iyo qorshooyin farsamo oo lagu halayn karo waxay tusinaysaa in 17 nooc ay jiraan, caawinayo, oo ay ka mid yihiin taageero loo fidiyo in iyadoo 8 ka mid ahi yihiin, afdhuub, Tabadiin, Boqor, lagu balaariyo agaasinka qorshayaasha kalluumaysgi Geesale, libaax iyo fiidmeer (kuwaan oo 40% ay soo ee iskaashatooyinka iyo qaybaha gaarka loo leeyahay jilaabtaan kaluumaystadu, waxaana jira noocyo kale ayaa looga bahan yahay si loo xaqiijiyo in la joogteeyo oo kalluumaysigoodu uusan joogto ahayn. dhamaan kalluumaysiga. Laba ha boo lagu hormarin karo suuq geynta iyo qiimaynta soo jilaabashada iyo Maamulka badaha iyo kalluumaysigu weli waa hakbak dhaqaale sidoo kale in la meel mariyo habkii mid aan socod baran, sharciga qeexaya bixinta uu ku shaqayn lahaa sharciyadii kalluumaysi ee jiray. ogolaanshaha ee la qeexay kaasoo hoos imanaya sharicigga kalluumaysiga ee dawladda federaalka ay Maamul xoog leh, maarayn, balaarinta adeegyada meel marisay 2014, kaasoo weli aan weli muhiimadiisa iyo kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha ayaa looga baahan la dhaqan gelin iyo qayb ahaan sharci dejiyaasha yahay si loo taageero maal gelinta gaarka ah ee Gobolada ama sharciyada. Wadaagista dakhliga ee wax soo saarka iyo suuqyada u dhexeeaya dawladda federaalka iyo kuwa maamul Marka laga soot ago wakhtiga dhow ee loo gudbayo goboleedayada eek u aadan sharciyada kallumaysi wakhtiga dhexe, soo kabashada wax soo saarka ee la bixiye dhowaanahan in la meel mariyo. Inkastoo beeraha, khaas ahaan dalagyada si kor loogu ay jiraan rajooyinka, ha ahaado dawladda federaalka qaado heerkooda waxay ku xiran tahay amaanka, ama wasaradaha gobollada oo si hufan loola socdo hay’ado maamul oo xoogan oo dadka iyo dawladda Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia xxiii Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed ah iyo ugu yaraan in la bilaabo talaaboyin horay qorshe wax qabad oo looga bahan yahay in lagu loogu qaadayo oo dib loogu habeeyo habkii dumay kobciyo nidaamka beeraha kaasoo loo hormariyey ee ilaalinta daadka, waraabka iyo kaabayaasha hab u adkaysi oo cimilada ah. Tan waxaa xoogga gaadiidka. Wakhtiga dheerna, muhiimadda ay lagu saaraya, hab dhexdhexaad, fulinta taageero leedahay kor u qaadista qaybtaani waxay xaqiijin iyo kor u qaadista nidaamka hagaajinta cimilada kartaa horumarinta iyo fulinta qoshe leh faham oo ee beeraha oo leh wax qabad iyo casriyeyn. lagu hormariyo, oo ay taageeraan hay’ado maamul • Maamulka khayraadka dabiiciga ah iyo dhul oo wax tar leh iyo fara gelin keenta in la dhiiri geliyo daaqismeedka. Waxaa jirta baahi sii kordhaysa qaybaha gaarka loo leeyahay ee wax soo saarka oo loo qabo kala maamulista dhulka, gaarista koowaad iyo kan gudaha iyo ganacsiga dibadda waxa siyaasado la isku raacsan yahay iyo ku fulintooda ka imanaya iyo habaynta wax soo saarka. Markii la bulshooyinka gudaha; horumarinta tayada xaqiijiyo lahaanshaha wadanka iyo isku duwidda bulshada si ay u maamushaan khayraadkooda agaasinka, wuxuu bixinayaa fursado dhaqaalah iyo dabiiciga ah hab ku haboon; iyo taageerada dib shaqooyin oo ay helaan dhalinyaradu iyo in lacagaha u habaynta dhul daaqsimeedka iyadoo la sinayo ka imanaya xawaladuhu noqdaan maal gelin halka ay taageero farsamo iyo maal gelin guud, waana hadda ka yihiin wax la quuto oo dabka lagu shubo, (a) xoojinta ciida iyo maaraynta biyaha, (b) Dibu qorshahaan waxaa ujeedkiisu noqon karaa in lagu dhiraynta iyo dhirta, (c) dib u beerista daaqa, gaaro ujeedooyinkaan soo socda: (d) abuurista dhirta u adkaysta abaaraha iyo • Kor u qaadista wax soo saarka dalaga oo ka badan cawsaska dhakhsaha u baxa iyo bahaha digirta, heerka uu hadda joogo, iyadoo la gaarsiinayo hab (e) isticmaalka biyo xireeno waaweyn oo biyaha buuxa oo soo kabasho ah oo dhinaca kaabayaasha lagu qabto iyo habab kala duwan oo farsamo casri dhaqaalaha dadweynaha iyo meel marinta ah leh taasoo lagu ilaaliyo daadadka. farsamada casriga ah ee la hormariyey iyo hab • Dhuxusha: xabagta iyo fooxa. Barnaamj lagu wanaagsan oo cimilo ah oo lagu saleeyo beeraha. balaariyo wax qabadka si loo yareeyo dhuxusha, • Ilaalinta iyo horumarinta xaaladaha deegaan, khaas ahaan jarista geedka quraca ah, waa iyadoo la iftiiminayo dhamaan dayaca ka jira inay noqoto mid leh muhiimadda ugu saraysa qaybaha beeraha ee saamaynta xun ku yeelanaya ee dhamaan maamul goboleedyada. Tan ee ka imanaya isbedelka cimilada. labaad maamulada Puntland iyo Somaliland iyo deeqbixiyaasha oo taageeraya waa inay • Dubu habaynta qaybaha gaarka loo leeyahay ee muhiimadda koowaad siiyaan ilaalinta dhirta hagaya nidaamka wax soo saarka ee dhamaan kale, oo ay ku jirto maydiga, beeyada iyo xabag qaybaha oo loo habeeyo, ganacsi ahaan iyo carbeedda, iyadoo la bilaabayo hab xoojin ah mid loo tartamo kaasoo kor u qaadaya habka oo lagu joogtaynayo jiritaanka. Dejiyayaasha diyaarinta wax ka soo baxa beeraha. siyaasaddu waa inay dhiiri geliyaan waxyaabo • Xoojinta adkaysiga wax haysiga qoysaska iyo dheeraad ah oo lagu taageeryo habab cusub oo haraynta gaajada iyo nafaqa darada, oo ay ka mid maal gashiga gaarka loo leeyahay oo leh tayo tahay iyadoo la soo saarayo hab cusub oo lagu wanaagsan oo ah habaynta dhamaan xabkaha iyo kaydiyo wakhti dheer wax soo saarka soo baxay, malmalka, sidoo kale wax soo saarka ka soo baxa habkaasoo leh farsamo casriya iyo nidaamka ka kaymaha sida dacarta oo kale. hor tegis oo ku aadan khataraha abaaraha. • Xoolaha: Taakulaynta iyo muhiimadda siyaasadda guud waa inay noqotaa dhismaha awoodda Talo bixinno ku aadan xalka cadayna caqabadaha hab isku xiran oo lagu maamulo daaweynta waxaa ka mid ah waxyaalahaan soo socda cudurada xoolaha, waa in loo furaa wada hadalo • Isbedelka cimilada. In si buuxda looga fuliyo laba dhinaca ah oo lala yeelanayo wadamada Soomaaliya hab wanaagsan oo tilamaamaya soo dhoofsada si la isula fiiriyo iyo in lala xxiv Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Soo koobid xog cilmiyeed socdo heerka faya qab iyo waxyaabaha kale ee si beeruhu u helaan wax tar iyo suuq geyn wixii muhiimka ah ee looga baahan yahay xoolaha. ka soo baxa; iyo ( e) horumarinta garitaanka iyo Waxyaabaha kale ee muhiimka ah waxaa ku korinta wax dhalista oo ka imaanaysa maal gelin jira kor u qaadista habka dhalista iyo habka lagu sameeyo kaabayasha dhaqaalaha tanoo farsamo ee wanaagsan ee dhaqashada xoolaha noqonaysa mid aan joogto ahayn haddii aan la iyo xoojinta siyaasado ku aadan isticmaalka dhul helin hay’ad maamul iyo dhismaha tayada oo la daaqsimeedka, qorshaynta iyo dhaqan gelinta ay sameeyo. kaga qayb gelayaan bulshadu. Taageerada lagu • Kalluumaysiga: Kororka ugu xoogga badan talo bixiyey waa hab isku dhaf ah oo nidaamka ee khayraadka kallumaysiga waa kalluunka wax soo saarka ah, si looga faa’iidsya xiriirka u tuunada iyo noocyada kale kaasoo isaga kala dhexeeya wax soo saarka dalagyada beeraha goosha soomaaliya soo saaristiisuna ay ku badan iyo xoolo dhaqatada miyiga kaasoo ah nidaam tahay biyaha badweynta wakhtiga mansoonka lagu balaarinayo hab balaaran oo isku xiran oo koonfurgalbeed uu dhacayo. Xaqiijintooduna quudinta iyo kor u qaadista qiimaha iyo fursadaha waxay si balaaran ugu xiran tahay maal gelin lagu kala duwanaanshaha. Siyaasada isticmaalka dhul sameeyo qaybaha gaarka loo leeyahay si ay awood daaqsimeedka, qorshaynta iyo meel marinta, ugu yeeshaan inay ka kalluumaystaan biyaha khaas ahaan waxa khuseeya dhul xirashada sida gunta badda ah; horumarinta kallumaystada gaarka loo xirto, sidoo kale waxaa loo bahan xeebaha iyo kuwa gudaha dhulka oo ay k amid yahay in la xoojiyo. In la xoojiyo kor u qaadista tahay samaynta hab isku xiran oo qaboojiye oo qaybaha gaarka loo leeyahay waxay keenaysaa suuqyada gudaha iyo horumarinta nafaqada qiimo dheeraad ah iyo habayn ku timaadda wax iyo habaynta. Dhamaan heerarka dawladda, soo saarka xoolaha. Dhiiri gelinta wax soo saarka iyagoo la hawl gelaya hay’addaha caalamiga xoolaha waxay si fudud u balaarin kartaa hab ah ee horumarinta kalluumaysiga, macaahidda wanaagsan oo rasmiya oo la gaaro. waxbarashada iyo deeq bixiyaasha waxay ciyaari • Dalagyada: Gaarista barnaamijyo wakhti dhexe karaan door muhiim ah. Waxay gacan ka geysan ah waxaa looga bahan yahay in si degdeg ah karaan inay bixiyaan (a) ururinta xogta rasmiga ah loo fuliyo , hab balaaran iyo mid joogto ah oo ee dhulka taal iyo tilmaamaha qiimaynta, sidoo wax soo saarka ah iyo in wax soo saarku helo kale dhismaha taydaa baraysa, cilmi barista iyo hab alaabooyinku ay ku caga dhigtaan iyo hab xirfadaha; (b) hab cad oo wax tar leh oo ku aadan balaaran oo sku kala duwanaanshaha wax maamulka kalluumaysiga, oo ah labada dhinacba beerista iyo dalagyada kale ee qiimaha sare leh dawladda federeaalka iyo heer maamul goboleed, ee hormarinaya dkahliga iyo nafaqada. Qaybaha tanoo ku salaysan qaab dhismeedka sharci iyo ugu waaweyn waa inay ku jiraan (a) dhismaha nidaamka sharci ee maal gashiyada gaarka loo maamul iyo tayada wax qabad ee dadka; (b) dib leeyahay, oo ay k a mid yihiin bixinta sharciyada; u dhis lagu sameeyo habka ilaalinta daadadka iyo (c) dejinta iyo qiimaynta qiimaha, kobcinta, iyo kaabayaasha waraabka ee dul saaran labada iyo fulinta qorshayaal balaaran oo horumarinta webi ee koonfurta Soomaaliya; (c) balaarinta biyo kalluunka goobo lagu dejiyo oo laga fuliyo qabatinada roobka iyo habka celinta qoyaanta dhamaan shanta dekedood iyo horumarinta la iyo soo saarista hab lagula socdo nabaad guurka xiriirta kaabyaasha gaadiidka, oo ay ka mid yihiin qoyaanka ciidda iyo dariiqyada warbixinaha looga jidadka miyiga oo bulshooyinka kalluumaysatada helayo gobollada bartamaha iyo waqooyiga yar yar ku xiraya jidadka waaweyn iyo suuqyada Soomaaliya; (d) dibu dhiska jidadka caro tuurka magaalooyinka. iyo wadooyinka miyiga si loo hormariyo gaadiidka Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia xxv Chapter 1 THE DOMINANCE OF AGRICULTURE IN SOMALIA Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 1 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia Key Findings • Somalia’s fragile and seriously degraded natural environment and the increased frequency and severity of drought and floods in recent years have buffeted the livestock and crop subsectors. Recurring droughts, the lack of research and extension services, and especially insecurity, lack of government, and consequent deterioration of the flood control, irrigation, and transport infrastructure in the Southern regions have severely reduced crop production. • Livestock and crops nonetheless remain the main sources of economic activity, employment, and exports in Somalia. Supporting their recovery from the recent drought, strengthening their resilience to increasingly frequent extreme climate events, and improving their overall performance will not only strengthen the basis for the country’s sustained economic development but also help cement peace and security, reduce poverty and malnutrition, and improve health outcomes. • Fishery—which is still artisanal, virtually unmanaged, and exploited by illegal, unreported, and unregulated vessels—has good potential to grow. • Agriculture’s share of GDP has risen significantly from its prewar level of about 62 percent to possibly 75 percent or even higher. In the early 2010s, agricultural exports represented 93 percent of the country’s total exports, down from about 95 percent prewar. Recent estimates suggest a dramatic expansion of the relative economic importance for Somalia of livestock. About 49 percent of the population still lives in rural areas, and about 46 percent of employed people work in agriculture (25 percent in crops cultivation, 9 percent in herding, 4 percent in fishing, and 7 percent in other related activities). • Agricultural exports have climbed every year since the late 2000s, to a peak in 2015 of $634 million, more than five times the value before the civil war, thanks to livestock exports, which rose by a factor of almost 10 since the late 1980s. As a result of the impact of the recent drought, the volume of livestock exports fell 11 percent in 2016, and an even worse decline is feared for 2017. • Sesame exports are Somalia’s second-largest export. They reached an historical peak of $40 million in 2014 before falling 15 percent in 2015. Given the collapse of banana exports, dry lemon is the only sizable export among vegetables and fruits, the combined export value of which is only about 20 percent of prewar levels. • Destructive charcoal exports to the Arabian Peninsula have fallen significantly since the federal and state governments started enforcing the export bans they adopted in 2012, but some are still taking place through informal channels and misclassification of shipments. • Agricultural imports have risen since the late 1980s, reaching almost $1.5 billion in 2015, up from an annual average of only about $82 million in the late 1980s. The combination of increased domestic food demand (driven by rapid population growth and urbanization and largely supported by remittances) and the collapse of domestic crop production has led to a massive increase in food imports. Imports of khat have risen, with deleterious effects on labor productivity and socioeconomic activities. • Somalia has a chronic food crop deficit. Local production meets only 22 percent of per capita cereal needs. Even in the best agricultural seasons, domestic production provides only about 40–50 percent of per capita cereal needs. Pastoral, farming, and fishing communities all suffer from high rates of chronic malnutrition. The root causes of poor nutrition include poverty, food insecurity, gender inequity, high population growth, and limited access to water, sanitation, and health services, as well as lingering civil conflict in many rural areas in Southern Somalia and more frequent, severe, and protracted droughts. 2 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia 1.1 Livelihood Systems in Somalia In the past three decades, these factors negatively affected all of the country’s geopolitical entities and The economy of Somalia has always been based their economic performance, resilience, and revival, on its natural resources. Its rangelands, grass, especially in the crop subsector. Nonetheless, the trees, and shrubs feed the livestock that dominate livestock and crop subsectors remain the backbone exports, provide sustenance and cash income to its of the Somali economy, playing a crucial role in the pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, and underpin the country’s food security, resilience, job creation, food security of most of its population, estimated at income generation, and foreign exchange earnings. 12.3 million in 2014 (UNFPA 2014) and expected to be have reached 13 million in 2016. The fertile alluvial Some observers claim that, unlike many countries soils and water resources in the two main river in Africa, Somalia has not experienced significant valleys in the Southern part of the country underpin income growth, the emergence of a middle class, or both crop and livestock production systems. Forests the growth of the nonfarm economy. A comparison provide frankincense, myrrh, and gum arabic for of recent gross domestic product (GDP) estimates both export and local markets, charcoal for cooking, with prewar estimates, however, strongly suggests and pasture and browsing resources for livestock. that despite the turmoil, the nominal size of the Though still minimally tapped for their economic economy increased more than fivefold and per potential, the country’s long coast and ocean are capita GDP almost tripled between 1989 and 2015, home to numerous and valuable species of fish and from $187 to $549 (Table 1.1).1 other marine life. In 1990, about 70 percent of the population was The Somali civil war, which started in 1988 in the rural. In the last two and a half decades, the rural northwestern region (today’s Somaliland) and share shrunk by 21 percentage points. The most reached Mogadishu in late December 1990, recent and best available estimates (UNFPA 2014) engulfed the Southern part of the country, causing show that about 48.7 percent of the population (6 severe deterioration of the country’s natural million people) lives in rural and nomadic areas. environment, physical infrastructure, and human Among these people, 53.2 percent are classified as capital. It also resulted in major weakness—or, in nomads, and 46.8 percent derive their livelihood the case of Southern Somalia, the total absence— from crops cultivation and fishing (believed to be no of government institutions until the early 2010s. more than 1 percent of the total population). Table 1.1: GDP and GDP per Capita in Somalia, 2010s and 1980s GDP at market prices GDP per capita Year (millions of dollars) (dollars) 1980 604 129.1 1985 878 163.1 1986 934 168.3 1987 1,023 179.2 1988 1,046 177.9 1989 1,132 186.9 2013 5,352 434.5 2014 5,706 450.2 2015 6,111 468.6 2016 6,336 472.1 2017 6,522 472.3 Source: FGS (1989), World Bank (1991), World Bank-IMF Staff Estimates (2017). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 3 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia Poverty is widespread in Somalia, which has one northern and central Somalia, as well as along of the lowest human development indicators the Ethiopian and Kenyan borders in southern in the world. According to the Somalia Human Somalia. They are estimated to have numbered Development Report, 82 percent of the population 3.2 million in 2014, about 26 percent of the is poor across multiple dimensions (UNDP 2012). population (UNFPA 2014). Ninety-nine percent The incidence of poverty is especially high in the are considered poor across multiple dimensions Southern regions (89 percent), partly because of of poverty and human development (UNDP a still active insurgency, food shortages, and badly 2012). See chapter 5 for more information. deteriorated infrastructure. But poverty is also very widespread in the more stable northwestern and • Agro-pastoralists depend on settled crop northeastern regions of the country (72 percent in production and livestock rearing. They are Somaliland and 75 percent in Puntland). The latest located mainly in the inter-riverine regions household survey, conducted in 2016 by the World of Bay, Bakool, western Hiran, and eastern Bank, shows that Somalia ranks among the poorest Gedo in Southern Somalia but also in certain countries in the world, with the poverty incidence rural areas in southwestern and northwestern (the percentage of the population living on less than Somalia with underground water and high levels $1.90 a day in 2011 purchasing power parity terms) of precipitation. A small proportion are riverine estimated at 52 percent (53 percent among the rural crop growers, a small number of whom also have population) (figure 1.1). animals on their farms; most keep no livestock. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Somalia’s diverse livelihood systems can be grouped estimate their number at 2.8 million in 2014, into four broad categories: pastoralists, agro- about 23 percent of the total population. Most pastoralists, fishing and coastal communities, and small-scale farmers are trapped in a poverty the urban population. A fifth category is internally cycle, without the capacity or resources to displaced people. The serious political and economic increase production and modernize their farming problem of very high youth unemployment is briefly practices. Multidimensional poverty incidence discussed in box 1.1. within this group is at 95 percent (UNDP 2012). • Pastoralists are mostly nomads tending livestock The World Bank estimates the income poverty herds. They are found in all rural areas of Somalia level of all rural dwellers in 2015 at slightly over but predominantly in the arid rangelands of half. See chapter 6 for more information. Figure 1.1: Incidence of Poverty in Somalia, 2016 Percent of Population Living on less than $1.90 per day in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity 100 90 80 70 60 Percent 50 40 30 20 10 0 Other Urban IDP Settlements Female Headed Headed No remittances Received remittances Mogadishu Rural Male Poverty Headcount rate Overall average Source: World Bank (2016). 4 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia • Somalia has the longest coastline in Africa, but droughts have led to massive population coastal communities are believed to represent displacements toward urban centers and nearby less than 1 percent of the population. They rely refugee camps. About 88 percent of internally on artisanal fishing. As artisanal fishing is limited displaced people live in acute poverty. They in the monsoon season (July–October), when receive international relief assistance and seas are rough, this sector represents a very food aid. Sixty-eight percent are in crisis and limited source of livelihood. See chapter 7 for emergency situations (UNDP 2012). The World more information. Bank estimates the incidence of income poverty • Somalia’s urban population is estimated at 5.2 among internally displaced people at about 70 million in 2014 (42 percent of the population). percent in 2015. They are net food buyers and depend on income from the informal sector, trade, casual 1.2 The Dominance of Agriculture in GDP labor, remittances, and other forms of social support. The multidimensional poverty level of According to the latest employment survey, the urban dwellers was estimated at 67 percent in agricultural sector employs 45.8 percent of the 2012 (UNDP 2012). The World Bank estimates employed people 15 and older, with 25.2 percent in the incidence of income poverty at almost 60 crops cultivation, 9.4 percent in herding, 4.0 percent percent in Mogadishu and about 40 percent in in fishing, and 7.2 percent in other agriculture- other urban areas in 2015. related activities (ILO 2014; see also appendix B). • The number of internally displaced people Moreover, agriculture generates about 93 percent of is estimated at 1.1 million (9 percent of the the country’s exports (based on partner countries’ population). Protracted crises and recurrent reporting), as discussed in more detail in section 1.3. Box 1.1: Agriculture Offers Opportunities to Reduce Somalia’s High Youth Unemployment Seventy percent of Somalia’s population is under the age of 30. This youth bulge will continue to increase, as a result of decades of high fertility rates (still about 6.2 births per woman). At the same time, Somalia has one of the highest rates of youth unemployment in the world, estimated at 68 percent, and very low education indicators. Secondary school enrollment rate, for instance, is just 6 percent, with poverty and early marriage keeping many young people out of school (UNDP 2012). Most youth in Somalia face a blocked transition to adulthood as a result of multiple social, economic, and political exclusions. About two-thirds want to migrate (90 percent in the Southern regions) (UNDP 2012). Lack of economic opportunity for youth also fuels conflict and instability: 40 percent of youth who join rebel movements worldwide are motivated to do so by a lack of jobs (World Bank 2011b). High rates of unemployment; lack of livelihood opportunities; insufficient, unequal, and inappropriate education; a legacy of violence; weak governance; and institutional vacuum are all factors that sustain Al-Shabaab’s appeal to Somali youth. A revival and modernization of agriculture present opportunities for youth employment and income generation along the agricultural value chains, from input supply and primary production to distribution and marketing, as well as increased agro-processing, as discussed in chapter 8. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia Table 1.2: Agriculture’s Share of GDP in Somalia, 1980, 1986–88, and 2013–16 (percent) 1980 1986-88 2013-16 Agriculture 64.4 62.0 - Livestock & Crops 61.9 55.3 70.9 Livestock and livestock products 43.7 37.2 60.7 Crop Production 18.3 18.1 10.2 Other 2.4 6.7 - Forestrya 2.1 6.1 1.5 Fishing 0.3 0.6 - Source: Data for first two columns are from Somalia 1989 (National Accounts Report). Data for 2013–16 are based on the estimated gross production values in the Drought Impact Needs Assessment (Somalia 2018)] divided by the IMF-World Bank’s estimated GDP. Note: Estimates cover all of Somalia, including Somaliland. a. Among forestry products, only the value of frankincense production was estimated for the Drought Impact Needs Assessment study for the (predrought) 2013–15 years. Livestock and livestock products represent almost This share is so much higher than the 62–64 percent 61 percent of GDP, according to the most recent share estimated from official data in the 1980s estimates by the World Bank and International that it raises some doubts about its reliability. Monetary Fund (IMF) of expenditure-based GDP It is true that many prewar subsectors—such as and estimates by World Bank and FAO staff of gross agro-processing, other manufacturing, utilities, and production values and the value added of the main government services—have shrunk. But others—such agricultural subsectors (Table 1.2). This figure is as telecommunications, construction, and retail trade much larger than the 37–44 percent of the 1980s. activity—have thrived, especially in the northern The crop subsector has fallen to about 10 percent, regions and Mogadishu. Sectoral production–based from about 18 percent.2 Adding to these two official GDP estimates for Somaliland for 2015 show subsectors any reasonable guesstimate (such as 3–4 only a 40 percent share of agriculture value added percent) of the forestry and fishery subsectors’ value in GDP (see table 3 in FGS 2017b). The government added yields an overall share of the value added of and World Bank estimate the share at 40 percent for agriculture of about 75 percent of GDP.3 2012–13 (figure 1.2).4 Figure 1.2: Sectoral Contributions to GDP in Somaliland, 2012–13 35 30 29.2 27.6 27.5 26.5 Contribution to GDP (Percent) 25 21.1 20.2 20 15 11.4 11.1 10 6.3 6.5 5 0 2012 2013 Industry Agriculture, forestry & fishing Other services Trade, transport, hotels & restaurants Livestock actvities Source: Estimates by the Ministry of Planning of Somaliland and World Bank staff. 6 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia Figure 1.3: Shares of Livestock and Crop Production in Somalia, 1986–88 to 2013–16 Percent of total livestock and crop production 9% 17% 25% 91% 83% 75% 1986-88 2010-12 2013-16 Livestock and livestock products Crop Production Source: FGS (1989) for 1986–88, FAOSTAT for 2010–12, and FGS (2017a) for 2013–17. More reliable than the guesstimate of the share of expansion of the crop subsector shown in table 1.3 GDP of the livestock subsector and the agricultural reflects the low prices used in the national accounts sector are estimates of the changes in the shares of before the civil war and the much higher prices in the livestock and crops. Figure 1.3 shows the dramatic years after the start of the war. expansion in the livestock subsector, whose share of total livestock and crop production rose from 75 Before the outbreak of the civil war, almost all percent in the late 1980s to 83 percent in the mid- agro-processing industries were owned or heavily 2010s. Over the same period, the contribution of the controlled by the government, and few were fully crop subsector fell from 25 percent to 17 percent. developed or well managed. All of them were destroyed soon after the start of the civil war. As Estimates of gross production values (in current the northern regions reestablished security and self- dollars) suggest a very large expansion of the governance institutions in subsequent years and the livestock subsector during the past three decades regions in the Southern part of the country became (table 1.3). These figures are consistent with the more secure in recent years, new privately owned volume trends discussed in chapter 5. agro-processing industries emerged, with high potential opportunity for expansion, job creation, The picture for the crop subsector shows a misleading and greater and sustained economic growth. Despite expansion over the prewar years, when production their enormous potential, even before the civil war, volumes for most crops were at their peak. With livestock and seafood processing were minimal, underlying production volume estimates by the FAO, however, and crop processing underdeveloped. elaborated in chapter 6, showing a decrease by more Agro-processing remains very limited (see appendix than half for both staple grains and bananas from H and chapters 5, 6, and 7). their prewar levels, all of the gross production value Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia Table 1.3: Gross Production Values of Livestock and Crops in Somalia, 1986–2017 Deyr 2016 - Annual Averages, US$ million 1986-88a 2010-12b 2013-16c Gu 2017c Livestock and livestock products 606 3,489 3,756 Meat (including exports)\ b 366 761 1,051 - Livestock products\ b 240 2,729 2,704 - of which: fresh raw milk\ c 2,848 2,353 Crop Production 198 355 751 329 Staple food crops 127 189 136 62 Sorghum 36 88 48 25 Maize 55 59 35 23 Sesame Seed 24 15 33 6 Cowpeas 22 15 6 Rice 4 3 3 1 Legumes 1 0 Pulses\d 7 .. - Groundnuts\d 1 2 .. - Fruits 23 46 175 56 Banana 11 26 82 27 Grapefruit and Lime 2 4 26 12 Watermelon 7 32 8 Papaya 23 9 Dates 12 1 Other Fruits\d 9 9 - Vegetables 16 13 46 5 Tomatoes 2 41 4 Onions 10 5 0 Other vegetables\ d 16 - - Forestry - - 88 - Frankincense (Boswellia) - - 88 73 Other 32 24 - - Roots and Tubers\d 25 24 - - Seed Cotton\e 1 - - - Sugar Cane\ e 6 - - - Relative sector ratios, % Livestock and livestock products 75% 91% 83% Crop Production 25% 9% 17% Source: FGS (1989) for 1986–88, FAOSTAT for 2010–12, and FGS (2017a) for 2013–17. Notes: a\ 1986–88 annual average estimates are nominal values in Somalia shilling from official national accounts divided by the official average exchange rate. b\ 2010–12 annual average estimates were derived by multiplying FAOSTAT production volumes by retail prices from FSNAU or other sources when FSNAU prices were not available. c\ 2013–16 estimates are the baseline estimates (annual averages or latest available year) from the 2017 Drought Impact Needs Assessment (FGS 2017a). d\ Estimates are available from FAOSTAT, but they are believed to be less reliable than the Drought Impact Needs Assessment estimates. They were left out to avoid double-counting. e\ Estimates showing positive numbers are available from FAOSTAT through 2014, but they are believed to be incorrect, as there has been no production since the civil war. 8 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia 1.3 The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia remains highly dependent on a small Foreign Trade number of export products (table 1.4) and overseas markets (table 1.5). In the early 2010s, the largest Somalia’s foreign trade was and still is mostly export, livestock (mostly for slaughter but also for in agricultural products. Agricultural exports breeding), earned about $420 million a year (more represented about 93 percent of total exports in than $424 million if animal byproducts are included), early 2010s (down very slightly, from about 95 almost seven times the value of the late 1980s. In percent before the war). Much changed during 2015, recorded live animal exports (which include the last three decades, however. Recorded export reexports from animals that originate in Ethiopia) performance (estimated from partner country reached $533 million and total sector exports customs data) has been extraordinary (table 1.4). reached $542 million, almost 10 times more than in Average annual agricultural exports of $518 million the late 1980s. As a result, the livestock subsector in the early 2010s were more than five times the accounted for 76 percent of total export earnings in level recorded before the civil war, climbing every the early 2010s and 79 percent in 2015, up from 53 year since the late 2000s to a peak of $644 million percent in the late 1980s. in 2014 and $634 million in 2015. Table 1.4: Somalia’s Top 15 Agricultural Exports, 1981–2015 (millions of dollars, annual averages)6 Product Description 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-14 2015 Live animals chiefly for food 88.4 55.7 66.6 72.9 76.7 126.3 377.1 493.9 Animals, live, zoo animals, dogs, cats 0.0 0.0 4.2 6.5 0.6 5.2 42.8 38.7 Oil seeds and oleaginous fruit 0.0 0.7 0.1 1.0 2.1 6.2 40.0 34.3 Cork and wood 0.1 0.0 1.1 6.9 16.1 31.0 25.0 0.0 Hides, skins and furskins, raw 3.9 5.3 2.4 2.3 6.6 8.7 8.6 3.8 Crude animal and vegetable material 4.8 7.1 3.8 3.0 3.3 5.2 6.0 20.7 Vegetables and fruit 14.7 29.5 5.0 7.2 0.6 4.5 5.9 4.9 Of which: Bananas, fresh or dried 13.8 28.1 4.3 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 Other citrus fruit, fresh or dried 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.5 4.0 Other vegetables & fruits 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 4.0 1.3 0.3 Cereals and cereal preparations 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.7 0.2 4.8 0.1 Meat and meat preparations 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.7 7.5 13.2 4.0 9.6 Fish, crustaceans, mollucs, preparation 2.1 9.0 10.1 8.1 18.3 7.6 3.6 27.8 Dairy products (all) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 Fixed vegetable oils and fats 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 Sugar,sugar preparations and honey 0.7 1.5 0.2 0.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 Animal-vegetable oils-fats, processed 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Animal oils and fats 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 - 0.0 Total (Top 15 agric exports) 115.0 109.0 93.7 112.3 141.1 Total Agric Exports) 115.0 109.0 93.7 112.3 141.1 208.9 518.1 634.0 Total Exports 119.6 114.3 102.5 119.9 169.5 282.5 559.1 688.5 Source: Partner country data from UN COMTRADE. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 9 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia Table 1.5: Top 15 Destinations for Somalia’s Agricultural Exports, 1981–2015 (millions of dollars, annual averages) Destination 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-14 2015 Saudi Arabia 86.9 46.9 58.1 44.6 6.8 42.4 257.8 318.0 Oman 0.4 0.1 0.6 5.5 10.2 32.7 102.4 140.8 United Arab Emirates 3.8 11.2 6.7 13.0 65.4 42.3 55.3 84.3 Yemen 2.5 - 7.2 26.0 23.1 54.0 34.7 8.6 India 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.2 23.8 15.6 China - 1.0 0.9 0.2 3.9 1.1 12.3 22.6 Bahrain - - 0.1 0.5 5.3 2.0 8.6 5.0 Pakistan - 0.1 0.8 0.3 1.9 5.7 6.1 2.6 Kuwait - - 0.8 3.8 4.8 8.0 4.5 0.4 Lebanon - - - 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 - Turkey 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.8 France 0.9 2.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.2 8.1 Thailand - 0.0 - 0.1 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.5 Italy 15.5 32.7 12.7 10.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Greece 0.5 5.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 - 0.0 0.1 Total Top 15 destinations for Agric Exports 110.4 100.2 90.0 108.2 130.3 198.5 511.7 607.4 Memo Item: Total Agric Exports 115.0 109.0 93.7 112.3 141.1 208.9 518.1 634.0 Memo Item: Total Exports 119.6 114.3 102.5 119.9 169.5 282.5 559.1 688.5 Source: Partner country data from UN COMTRADE. In the prewar period, the second-largest export chilled goat meat, which is exported to Gulf and item by value was fruit, mostly bananas, shipped South Asian countries. The annual value of these mostly to Italy (Somalia also exported grapefruit exports was about $4 million in the early 2010s and and papaya). In recent years, fruit exports were almost $10 million in 2015. In 2011–15, 87 percent limited to some small test shipments of bananas of total agricultural exports (mostly sheep and goats to Gulf countries. Total vegetable and fruit exports, during the haj for slaughter) went to four countries in which include dry lemon exports (which began in the Arabian Peninsula, up from 53 percent in the late about 2009), are only about 20 percent what they 1980s (Table 1.5). were just before the civil war began. Despite dependence on the Saudi market, Somali In 2011–14, sesame seeds were the second-largest livestock exporters were able to quickly circumvent export. Most of the $40 million in exports goes to the livestock import ban Saudi Arabia imposed in India. Destructive charcoal exports and gum and resin 2001–09 out of fear of a Rift Valley Fever epidemic. exports each account for $10–$20 million of exports The combination of the Saudi ban on Somali (see chapter 4).5 In 2015, Somalia exported $34 livestock imposed at the end of 2016 (and lifted million of sesame seeds and $21 million of charcoal. temporarily only from the two major northern ports for the haj season of July–September 2017) and Only a few primary agricultural commodities were the impact of the drought on animals’ health and processed before the civil war. The only item now welfare could cause exports to fall by as much as processed is meat and meat preparations, mostly $400 million in 2017. 10 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia In the immediate post–civil war period, trade the need to transport large quantities of cash across was hampered by a lack of trade finance and borders. The combination of these factors resulted in insurance services, the breakdown of transport and deep domestic and international market integration, communication networks, poor marketing facilities, despite highly insecure conditions in the Southern limited access to international markets, and the regions of Somalia. lack of security. Although these constraints still act as brakes on trade expansion, trade flows, including Somalia has become a de facto duty-free zone and a cross-border trade, not only survived state failure critical part of a trade network spanning from Dubai but increased dramatically after 1991, as Little (2003) (a critical supply and finance center for Somali notes for informal cross-border trade. Table 1.4 businesspeople) to Ethiopia, Kenya, and their documents the increase for recorded exports. Table neighbors. Although no quantitative evidence is 1.6 shows the increase in recorded imports. available on informal cross-border trade, qualitative studies and anecdotal evidence strongly suggest that Two main factors facilitated trade expansion: the Somalia has become a major informal supplier of growth of the telecommunications sector, which has cattle and charcoal to large parts of the Horn of Africa made it possible for accurate and timely information and a major reexporter of other items, such as sugar, to reach even remote settlements, and the growth pasta, and electronics, that are subject to high tariffs of remittance companies, which has done away with in neighboring countries. Table 1.6: Somalia’s Top Agriculture Imports, 1981–2015 (millions of dollars, annual averages)7 (millions of dollars, annual averages) Product Description 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-14 2015 Vegetables and fruit 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.0 3.4 94.2 386.6 552.1 Cereals and cereal preparations 63.0 40.3 32.8 38.1 51.7 132.7 293.7 313.9 Sugar, sugar preparations and honey 4.5 3.2 17.9 37.6 55.9 93.8 160.6 187.7 Live animals chiefly for food 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 1.2 9.4 93.1 147.7 of which: Poultry 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.6 0.5 3.4 Miscel. edible products and preparation 1.3 6.3 1.9 0.7 6.2 15.3 65.3 51.6 Dairy products (all) 15.9 5.9 2.4 1.7 4.7 16.2 62.0 82.0 Tobacco and tobacco manufactures 4.5 4.0 7.7 15.8 33.9 38.9 57.0 18.1 Fixed vegetable oils and fats 15.9 9.3 6.1 8.6 13.9 31.0 52.9 76.8 Cork and wood 1.6 2.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 8.3 5.9 Fish, crustaceans, mollucs, preparation 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 2.9 8.2 13.9 Crude animal and vegetable material 0.2 0.2 1.7 11.8 25.4 75.6 8.1 2.4 of which: Raw vegetable matter 0.2 0.2 1.7 11.8 25.4 75.6 8.1 2.4 Cork and wood manufactures (excl. fu) 1.4 1.8 2.6 0.3 0.2 4.2 7.6 16.6 Paper, paperboard, artic. of paper, pap 3.8 3.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 2.1 6.8 16.9 Beverages 1.0 0.7 2.0 0.6 1.0 4.4 4.7 7.2 Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, manufacture 2.2 1.0 1.7 3.5 2.6 4.1 2.3 3.4 Poultry products (eggs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 Total (Top 15 agric imports) 118.1 82.0 84.7 122.0 201.9 525.9 1,217.9 1,496.8 Total Imports 297.9 279.1 144.2 167.1 288.1 719.7 1,674.9 2,358.0 Source: Partner country data from UN COMTRADE. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 11 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia Agricultural imports have also increased since the 1.6, however, is the jump from zero before the war late 1980s (see table 1.6). They are estimated to to an annual average of almost $76 million in the have averaged $1,218 million a year in recent years, late 2000s of khat, a mild stimulant fresh shrub reaching $1,497 million in 2015. Increased domestic mostly imported by air from Ethiopia and Kenya, demand for food, mostly for cereals, sugar, and other with deleterious side effects on labor productivity preparations, driven by rapid population growth and and socioeconomic activities (box 1.2).8 Remittances urbanization, has led to rapidly rising food imports, are the largest source of finance for these imports especially in light of the collapse of their domestic (box 1.3). production. The most striking trend implicit in table Box 1.2: High Socio-economic Cost of Khat Use by Somali Men The widespread practice of khat (Catha edulis) chewing on the weekends, especially by the majority of Somali men, is a major concern throughout Somalia, and particularly so in rural areas. In contrast to before the civil war, when khat consumption was reserved mostly for major holidays and limited only to men. in recent years many young and middle-age men (and also an increasing although still small number of women) have taken to chew it on an almost weekly basis, as a distraction from the stresses of life. Chewing khat per sitting per person costs range from $2 to $6, depending on the air or road distance of retail markets from the producing areas and on the freshness of its leaves, as the stimulant effect of its active ingredient, chathinone, is highest when leaves are fresh and proportional to the length of time from harvest to consumption. According to a presentation made in 2013 to Concern Worldwide (Ireland’s largest aid and humanitarian non-profit organization) by the Somali Technical Agriclutral Group (SATG), a vehicle arrives in Boqor, Gabilley District, Somaliland, every morning at 7:00am from across the border in Ethiopia carrying the daily supply of khat. One bundle in Boqor sells for $1.50 to $2.00 and since men typically chew two to three bundles per sitting, the cost for an average individual sitting is $3 to $6. For those consuming khat only on weekends (eight sittings per month), the average monthly cost can be as high as $48. For those addicted to it and consuming it daily, the average monthly cost can be as high as $180-$200. In either case, such expenses represent a huge burden for those families whose only sources of income are from crop and livestock sales. This very often results in conflict within the family, as in the reported case of a father stealing a goat from the herd his son was watching over and using the proceeds of its sale to feed its khat addiction. Khat, moreover, causes severe and protracted lack of sleep, thus leaving users in a severely debilitated state and unable to work early the next day, or at the very least very unproductive. In urban areas, most formal employment is therefore open only to those who do not chew khat. In rural areas, khat chewers lose their will to work in the field, and favor instead sitting under the shade of a tree with their friends. Other health hazards of khat chewing include rapid aging and sometimes loss of the teeth and reduced mental performance. In addition to recorded imports under the categories of ‘crude vegetable material’ and ‘vegetables and fruits’, actual consumption is also met by large unrecorded imports and sizable domestic production (mostly in the area between Hargeisa and Boroma in Somaliland). In September 2016, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) banned all Kenyan flights carrying khat, but several federal states, including both Somaliland and Puntland, rejected the order. The impact of the ban is not yet clear. 12 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia Box 1.3: Remittances Are Critical to Somalia’s Food Security The Somali diaspora sends more remittances home ($2,040 per emigrant a year) than any other African diaspora group (the African average is $1,263). An estimated 1–1.5 million Somalis living abroad contribute remittances, estimated at $1.2–$1.3 billion a year (FSNAU 2015; U.K. Government 2015) or $2 billion (Hammond, Dagan Ali, and Hendrick 2011; Orozco and Yansura 2015) a year. They exceed the $1 billion received in development aid in 2012 and account for about 80 percent of investment in Somalia and half of the country’s gross national income. Remittances account for 60 percent of average annual household incomes, with more than 3.4 million people (43 percent of the population) relying on remittances to meet their basic needs. Surveys in Somaliland and Puntland reveal that mean annual remittances per recipient were $946, reaching up to $6,000 in some cases in Somaliland. Remittances are used mostly for food purchases: 73 percent of recipients use them to buy food, and food expenditures account for 45–65 percent of household expenditures for recipients of remittances. They are thus a major contributor to food security in general and to household resilience during crises. Remittances can sometimes create a culture of dependency by reducing the incentives for taking up low-paid work, but they also provide a very important source of funds for investment in agriculture- related activities (farm and off-farm) that can help create more sustainable livelihoods and economic growth (World Bank 2015). 1.4 Poor Food Security and Nutrition In mid-2016, nearly 4.7 million people (38 percent of the population) were in need of humanitarian Somalia is a chronic food crop deficit country. Local assistance in Somalia; in drought-affected Puntland production provides an average of only 22 percent of and Somaliland, the figure was about a third of per capita cereal needs. Even in the best agricultural the population. With a worsening of the year- seasons, domestic production provides only about long drought, as a result of the onset of a La Niña 40–50 percent of per capita cereal needs (FSNAU weather event, and signs of prefamine conditions, 2014). Somalia produces less than half of as much in February 2017 the United Nations issued an food as it did before the war. Average production urgent appeal for action and donor support to stem decreased from about 500,000 tons in 1980–90 to the extremely deteriorated food security conditions about 280,000 tons in 1995–2006; it remained largely that were already affecting 6 million people (almost unchanged in 2009–15. In this period, food imports half the population), especially in the Bakool region (mainly cereals and sugar) averaged 61 percent of and Puntland. total imports, including direct food aid (11 percent of total imports). Sustained humanitarian assistance and an easing of the drought in the 2017 Gu season (April–June) During the 1980s, pastoral, farming, and fishing prevented more extreme outcomes, but the risk of communities in Somalia all suffered from a high rate famine is not over (figure 1.4).10 According to the of chronic malnutrition. The situation today is worse Food Early Warning System (FEWS), as of October than before the civil war. Between 2007 and 2014, 2017, food security needs were nearly twice the about 40 percent of the population experienced food five-year average in Somalia, with more than 2.4 stress, crisis, or emergency situations.9 These numbers million people in crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 866,000 in have been steadily increasing, as a consequence of emergency (IPC Phase 4). As another such season two consecutive years with below-average rainfall, of below-average rainfall is forecast (the October– which led to well below-average livestock and crop December 2017 Deyr season), further deterioration production and large-scale livestock mortality and in their food security is likely through May 2018, in at reduced household access to food and income. least some areas. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 13 1. The Dominance of Agriculture in Somalia The root causes of poor nutrition Figure 1.4: Food Security in Somalia, by Livelihood Zone, January 2018 include poverty, food insecurity, gender inequity, high population growth, and limited access to water, sanitation, and health services, in addition to lingering civil conflict in many rural areas in Southern Somalia and more frequent, severe, and protracted droughts. Micronutrient deficiencies related to poor diets are widespread and have far-reaching, long-term health consequences, including high rates of infant and maternal mortality. Poor nutrition also has substantial negative impacts on agricultural productivity, with cascading impacts on income and poverty. It often leads to illness, a serious problem for poor people, because health costs can force households to tap savings, sell assets, or go into debt, inevitably pushing them farther into Sources: Food Early Warning System (FEWS) (http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/key-message- poverty. In addition, sick people update/january-2018); do not make good herders, Note: The Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) is a tool for classifying the food security and nutrition situation. It is based on indicators such as the food consumption, food access, livelihood change, nutritional farmers, or fishers. status, food utilization, and hazards and vulnerabilities of the population. The increased availability, affordability, and Production of staple grains has decreased by more consumption of diverse, safe, and healthy foods than half from prewar levels. Meanwhile, the from stronger agricultural sector performance population has more than doubled, from 6.3 million would improve nutrition directly and increase the in 1990 to about 13 million in 2016, and to reach 30 resilience of poor households indirectly. People million by 2050. In addition, because of the high level who are well nourished in childhood have greater of migration to urban areas, which creates more net physical and intellectual capacities, leading to higher food buyers, agricultural production needs to grow earnings over their lifetimes and a larger cushion to faster than the population just to maintain recent absorb shocks. Improving the production, trading, food security levels. An even higher rate of growth and processing of primary agricultural products is needed to substantially improve living standards would not only contribute to the country’s overall for both producers and consumers. More land needs economic recovery and growth, it would also have to be cultivated and livestock, crop, and fishery important direct effects on cementing peace and production needs to be intensified to raise yields and security, strengthening livelihoods, reducing poverty, produce more and higher-value processed products. and enhancing health outcomes in both rural and urban areas. 14 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Chapter 2 INFRASTRUCTURE AND SKILLS DEFICITS AS CONSTRAINTS TO GROWTH Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 15 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth Key Findings • The poor condition of watering facilities in all regions compounds the natural water scarcity in a mostly semiarid country like Somalia. Water supply for household use, livestock, and small-scale irrigation depends mainly on groundwater and related infrastructure. Such infrastructure has deteriorated badly in the Southern regions, where it is inadequate to meet needs. In the northern regions it is still functional and gradually expanding. • Even in the fertile areas of southern Somalia, water scarcity remains one of the main sources of conflict between nomadic pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. • Livestock herders rely mostly on rainfall harvested by an extensive network of reservoirs (berkads), which often become silted during the dry seasons and thus need regular desilting. During a longer, more severe dry season, livestock herders move closer to the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Both rivers experience wide seasonal variation, at times breaking through their weak embankments, causing major flooding to the adjacent villages and beyond, at other times drying up completely. As a result of prolonged insecurity in this part of the country, which has prevented regular maintenance and repairs, and the absence of effective community organizations, most of this watering infrastructure have fallen into disrepair. In recent years, therefore, livestock survival during severe annual or seasonal droughts have become dependent on very costly and often unaffordable privately owned water tankers. • Before the war, the total irrigated area in southern Somalia (estimated at 222,950 hectares) was almost equally split between land under controlled pump irrigation and land under flood-recession irrigation. Both the extensive prewar network of crop-related flood control and irrigation infrastructure and the road network are in extremely poor condition. The few modest cash-for-work donor-funded rehabilitation efforts of irrigation canals and feeder roads have had very little impact; most of this infrastructure is not functioning. As a result, the area under irrigation was only about half what it was before the war—and the recent drought reduced it even further. • The large geographical coverage of mobile phone services has allowed remote communities to communicate directly with nearby urban markets about input and output prices and to stay in touch with family members scattered around the world. It also facilitates receipt of remittances from the diaspora and payments for all kinds of purchases and provides Somalis with updated information on domestic and international developments and the availability of local services. • In the last two decades, a number of community and privately supported technical schools and universities were established. Some of them offer degree programs in livestock, crops, and fishery science. These efforts have been inadequate to ease the acute scarcity of skilled personnel, including for agricultural development, however. 2.1 Dilapidated and Poor Infrastructure In the more stable and self-governed northern regions, infrastructure has been largely Livestock, crop, and fishery infrastructure is rehabilitated and in some cases expanded. extremely poor or absent in southern Somalia. Since Although in better shape than in Southern Somalia, the collapse of the Somali government, in December it is still inadequate. Tight budget constraints, the 1990, there have been almost no major repairs of the result partly of low tax collections and limited donor flood control, irrigation, and road infrastructure. The support in the past two decades, have meant that few modest rehabilitation efforts of some irrigation Somaliland and Puntland have prioritized spending canals and feeder roads—through cash-for-work on security rather than infrastructure. approaches by the FAO and various nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), with support from donor agencies—have had very little impact. 16 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth 2.1.1 Watering Sources and Facilities for Livestock some NGOs have performed some maintenance, but In southern Somalia, unlike in the central and only on an occasional and limited basis, depending northern regions, annual rainfall is relatively on available funds from donors. In recent years, high (about 500–600 millimeters, with a bimodal livestock survival during annual or seasonal severe distribution). It can sustain sufficient pasture for droughts has become dependent on very costly and livestock grazing during the two growing seasons often unaffordable water transported by privately of Gu (April–June) and Deyr (October–December). owned water tankers. During the longer, more severe dry season of Jilaal (which runs from January to-mid-April), livestock Puntland, Somaliland, and the central rangelands herders move closer to permanent water sources, of southern Somalia receive only about 100–200 mainly the Juba and Shabelle rivers, which originate millimeters of rain a year, except in the Awdal region in the Ethiopian highlands and cut across the southern of Somaliland, where annual rainfall can reach up regions of Somalia. The Juba River is 1,004 kilometers to 500 millimeters. Except in some parts of the Golis long; the Shabelle River is 1,130 kilometers long. Both Mountain range along the Gulf of Aden, these areas rivers experience wide seasonal variation, with the have no permanent springs. They depend mainly on highest water flows experienced during the wet growing groundwater for domestic water supply, livestock seasons, when the rivers frequently break through their rearing, and small-scale irrigation. The water sources weak embankments, causing major flooding to the in the plateaus south of the mountains consist mostly adjacent villages and beyond. In the Jilaal season, river of shallow wells, water reservoirs using earth dams in flow volumes are reduced significantly.11 depressions, cemented berkads, and few deep wells (boreholes). Most of the wells are along the banks of The Shabelle River dried out completely during dry rivers (wadis). In some parts of Somaliland, a few the 2016 and 2017 Jilaal seasons, causing severe check dams have been constructed across the wadis, damage to bananas and other fruit and vegetable to raise the water level in the shallow wells along crops that are highly dependent on river water for the wadis. Three- to four-meter deep subsurface irrigation. The event is believed to be related to the dams, built of concrete and/or bricks with cement, hydroelectric and agriculture development activities are used to store surface water and help recharge carried out upstream in Ethiopia. the groundwater in the area. Many of these sources retain water for a short duration only, however, and In the inter-riverine areas of the Bay and Bakool cannot be relied upon for year-round water supply. regions, rainfall is harvested for livestock watering Boreholes are the most valuable, because they by an extensive network of large and shared supply water throughout the year, including when reservoirs using earth dams and cemented cisterns other sources dry out (SWALIM 2012b). (berkads), originally constructed and maintained by the Ministry of Livestock, Forestry, and Rangeland. The development of new groundwater resources These water reservoirs often become silted during in Somalia is fraught with challenges, key among the dry seasons and need regular desilting. them poor water quality. Most groundwater sources in the country have salinity levels above As a result of the prolonged civil war and the 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter, which exceeds absence of nomadic communities’ organization, the standard for drinking water. Many shallow most of the prewar infrastructure for flood control wells are unprotected from the elements, leaving and irrigation (embankments, gates, canals, and them vulnerable to microbiological and other water reservoirs) has not been maintained and is contamination (SWALIM 2012b).12 not currently functioning adequately. The FAO and Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 17 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth 2.1.2 Irrigation, Flood Control, and Water The vast majority of this infrastructure is no longer Harvesting Infrastructure for Crops functioning, and the area under controlled irrigation Before 1990, Somalia had large-scale flood control has been reduced by 42.5 percent from the prewar and irrigation schemes, consisting of barrages, period, to about 65,000 hectares (50,000 hectares canals, and other infrastructure in the middle and along the Shabelle River and 15,000 along the Juba lower reaches of the Juba and Shabelle rivers, River). Flood recession cultivation is estimated to particularly in banana production areas. The canal have shrunk by 58.4 percent, to 45,800 hectares system consisted of primary, secondary, and tertiary (24,200 hectares along the Juba River and 21,600 canals, with water flow controlled by barrages along the Shabelle River) (EU 2010; SWALIM 2013a). or weirs. Pumped irrigation systems also existed, The total irrigated area is thus less than half what it especially along the rivers, where large pumps moved was before the civil war (see chapter 6). water from the rivers to the extensive network of canals. Just before the collapse of the government, The Middle Shabelle region had some of the best the Somali Ministry of Agriculture estimated that irrigation and flood control infrastructure in the 112,950 hectares were under controlled irrigation country (box 2.1). Gravity irrigation was frequently and 110,000 hectares were under flood-recession used; where it was not possible, pump irrigation irrigation (cultivation along the edge of rivers or other was used. These works were associated with large water bodies using water from receding floods), for a state-owned primary farms with associated agro- total irrigated area of 222,950 hectares. processing factories, such as the sugar and rice projects in Jowhar and the cotton project in Balad. Box 2.1: Poor State of Key Irrigation and Flood Control Infrastructure in Middle Shabelle Region All these facilities are currently in very poor condition, hardly operating, and their irrigation or storage capacities are only potential today, if fully rehabilitated, not actual as it was just before the civil war and reported below. • Jowhar Off-Stream Storage Project. In the high-flood season—when the Shabelle River can reach a height of 5.5 meters at Belet Weyne, in the Hiran region—water was diverted through the Saboon barrage and an FAO-funded primary canal to a depression south of Jowhar, with storage capacity of 200 million cubic meters (World Bank and UNDP 2007). During the low season, water was supplied back to the river through a downstream gate. The reservoir also supported a commercial-scale tilapia fishery for both local consumption and export by air, run by a businessman using local labor, motorized fishing boats, and cold-storage facilities and trucks. This $34 million project was funded by Saudi Arabia and built in the mid-1980s by SIETCO, a Chinese construction company. Under the supervision of the Ministry of Agriculture, it was operating effectively on the eve of the civil war and was very beneficial to farming communities downstream in both the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions. • Duduble Flood Relief Scheme. Upstream of the Saboon barrage, the Chinese government funded the Duduble barrage and its relief canal (known as the Chinese Canal), constructed by SIETCO, mainly to safeguard against flooding when the Jowhar reservoir became full and the level of the river at Belet Weyne was still high. The canal also supplied water to agro-pastoral and farming communities between Jowhar and Wanla Weyne. • Balad barrage. Built in 1987 in the Balad district of the Middle Shabelle region, with funding and technical assistance from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Balad barrage provided irrigation for up to 10,000 hectares, mainly to small-scale farmers growing cotton for the (state-owned) clothing factory in Balad. • To protect all low-lying areas along the river from floods, flood control embankments were constructed and maintained annually during the dry season. In addition, various river gauges (in Mustahill, Ethiopia, and in Belet Weyne, Bulaburde, Mahadday Weyne, and Jowhar) provided regular monitoring of water flow and early flood warnings downstream. 18 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth The Lower Shabelle region was one of the main constructed during the colonial era; other projects producing areas for major export crops, such as were constructed by the Somali government before bananas, grapefruits, and watermelons. It had the civil war. the highest productivity and generated the highest agricultural value added in Somalia, because of its Lack of annual maintenance and repairs has leveled land and location closest to the major urban undermined the functioning of all of this and port facilities of Mogadishu, Marka, and Barawe. infrastructure. Attempts have been made to Major infrastructure included seven barrages (box rehabilitate broken barrages and clogged irrigation 2.2) and various primary and secondary canals canals, but the results have been mixed.13 Lack of to facilitate gravity irrigation to large areas along rehabilitation of main and rural roads has meant the Shabelle River, mostly associated with the increased and severe isolation of farms during rainy largest state-owned enterprise, Somalfruit, which periods and increased and substantial crop wastage obtained its products from the region’s privately and quality deterioration during transport to markets. owned plantations. Some of this infrastructure was Box 2.2: Poor State of Barrages in the Lower Shabelle Region All of the barrages in the Lower Shabelle are in very poor condition and hardly operating. To reach their irrigation capacity , they would need to be fully rehabilitated. • The Hawaay barrage was built by the Italian government in 1926, in the Barawe district of the Lower Shabelle region, to divert water into the Hawaay irrigation scheme and serve small canals irrigating farms neighboring the Shabelle River. It has one sliding main gate and a number of sluice gates. It has the capacity to irrigate 3,000 hectares. • The Janaale barrage was built in 1927, in Janaale village, to divert water into canals and regulate the river level to reduce flooding downstream. It is the largest barrage in the Lower Shabelle; operation of the other downstream barrages depend on it. The barrage is fitted with 11 gates that use manual lifting gears. It was designed to irrigate 67,440 hectares under the Janaale Buulo Mareerta irrigation scheme. Primary canals include Primo, Secondario, Asayle, and Dhame Yasin. A number of upstream direct intake canals also depend on the barrage. • The Qoryooley barrage was built in 1955, in the Qoryooley district of the Lower Shabelle region, to regulate river levels and divert water to the Farhani and Libaan canals. It was fitted with a manual lifting gear with turning wheels. The barrage has the capacity to irrigate 4,120 hectares. New lifting gears were installed in 2009. • The Falkeerow barrage was built in 1955 by the Italian government, in Falkeerow village in the Lower Shabelle region, to regulate river levels and divert water into the Furuqulay and Bakooro canals for irrigation. It has nine gates, which are lifted manually using a lifting gear, and the capacity to irrigate 26,800 hectares. • The Kurtunwaarey barrage was built in 1986 by the Somali government, in Kurtunwaarey village in the Lower Shabelle region, to abstract water through canals to support irrigation of farms for drought-displaced population. It has eight gates and lifting mechanism of mounted slides on steel structures. The primary canals include Towfiiq, Hagaag, Shanad, and Sedihad; they have the capacity to irrigate 5,000 hectares of land. The barrage was rehabilitated in 2009. • The Mashallaay barrage was built in 1986, in Mashallaay village, to regulate river levels and provide additional water for irrigation through the Primo Secondario canal. It is fitted with eight gates, but it never functioned, because of a faulty link canal design (water flowed in the wrong direction, from Primo Secondario to the Shabelle River). It was designed to irrigate 27,000 hectares. • The Sablaale barrage was built in 1987 by the Somali government, in the Sablaale district of the Lower Shabelle region, to divert water into the Sablaale irrigation settlement scheme. It has a single main gate, with a manual lifting gear and four weirs. The barrage has the capacity to irrigate 940 hectares. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 19 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth In 2009, the FAO implemented an irrigation In the Lower Shabelle region, a more limited rehabilitation project in the Middle Shabelle region irrigation rehabilitation (funded and implemented funded by the European Union and the World Bank by the same institutions) also had a short-term (World Bank 2011a). The project appears to have positive impact on agricultural production. The only stemmed the postwar trend of declining rice absence of annual maintenance resulted in the lack of production, although it did strengthen the Jowhar sustainability of the progress achieved, however. The Rice Growers’ Association, which was established problem reflected both the inadequate capacity of before the war and survived the conflict. The high- the Ministry of Agriculture and the lack of security.16 yielding varieties of rice that were introduced in the prewar period (and contributed to an increase in the The middle and lower reaches of the Juba River cut area under rice cultivation from zero to a peak of through rich alluvial soils, which made this region 6,500 hectares in 1989 at the eve of the civil war) are one of the most productive agricultural areas of the still in use. These varieties from the International Rice country. Pump irrigation was a common. The Fanoole Research Institute make rice growing still profitable dam and its associated infrastructure were the main in the region. By the early/mid-2010s (predrought) gravity irrigation facilities in the Juba Valley (box rice was being grown on only about 750–1,500 2.3). The planned Bardheere hydroelectric dam in hectares, however, a small fraction of the area under the Upper Juba (Gedo region) was to have extensive rice cultivation in the prewar years.15 storage capacity to supply irrigation water to the Middle and Lower Juba basins as well as the lower reaches of the Shabelle River. It was never built. Box 2.3: Severe Deterioration of the Fanoole Hydroelectric Dam and Its Canal System in the Lower Juba The Fanoole dam and hydroelectric power generation plant was the most important infrastructure facility in the Juba Valley. Various projects were located downstream from Fanoole, such as the Mareerey Sugar Project and the Mogambo Rice Project (box 2.3.1); the port of Kismayo, also located downstream from Fanoole, was the main economic outlet for the Juba Valley and its banana exports. The dam and its canal system were constructed with the assistance of China from 1977 to 1982, at a cost of about $50 million, to provide irrigation for government-owned rice and sesame farms. The prewar irrigated area had reached 1,800 hectares for rice and 700 hectares for sesame. The dam also provided electricity to the towns of Jilib and Mareerey. In addition, the project had 20 storage facilities for inputs and rice. Some 1,500 Somali staff and 42 Chinese experts and technicians worked at the facility (dam and associated farms). The plan was to extend electricity transmission to Jamame and other towns downstream, including Kismayo. The onset of the civil war interrupted such initiatives. The potential and planned second-phase development area for the project was 13,000 hectares. Just before the civil war, 5,000 hectares of rice and sesame were developed. Work on the remaining 8,000 hectares never started because of the onset of the civil war. The dam’s gates and hydroelectric equipment are badly deteriorated and nonfunctional, as a result of both decades of neglect and the change in the path of the river flow after the 1998 El Niño torrential rains. The government considers rehabilitation of the dam a top priority for the recovery of the Juba basin’s agricultural capacity and its economic development. 20 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth Box 2.4: State-Owned Productive Facilities in the Lower Juba before the Civil War The Mareerey Juba Sugar Project The Mareerey Juba Sugar Project (JSP) project was started in 1976. Production began in 1980, and the plan was completed in 1982, with funding from the Somali government, the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, the Saudi Fund for Development, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The plant was managed by Booker Agriculture International Ltd., which manages many other large sugar projects throughout the world. By 1984, JSP had 1,700 employees; 3,000 casual laborers who assisted in planting and harvesting; 100 kilometers of access roads connecting it to the major paved road leading to Kismayo port; 200 staff homes; stores; and a small hospital. Its extensive sprinkler irrigation system used 26 kilometers of a primary canal and 17 kilometers of secondary canals and was served by 72 pump stations, 11 relifting stations, and 61 field sprinkler pumps. By the mid-1980s, the small village of Mareerey, where the plant was located, had grown into a town. The management company provided training for Somali engineers, agriculturists, and technicians working at the factory, its farms, and associated infrastructure. By the late 1980s, the plant was gradually reducing the large number of expatriate staff. In the plant’s first phase, production fluctuated, because of lack of fuel and lubricants, especially for the irrigation pumps. The problems were related to the difficult macroeconomic conditions Somalia was facing. Nonetheless, in the late 1980s, the first phase of the project covered 7,200 hectares of prime agricultural land, and the plant produced 39,000–65,000 tons of sugar a year (the near-term production target was 70,000 tons) and other byproducts, such as molasses and bagasse. The onset of the civil war did not allow the target to be achieved or the second phase (which planned to put another 13,000 hectares of land under cultivation and to increase production by 100,000 tons a year) to materialize. During the early years of the civil war, all of the plant’s physical assets— including the roof, fixtures, machinery, pumps, and sprinklers—were looted and resold as scrap metal. The project’s farmland was highly dependent on sprinkle irrigation and thus quickly became unproductive; its housing and office buildings were looted. As a result of the looting of this important sugar-producing facility and a similar one in the Middle Shabelle region (the Jowhar Sugar Factory), Somalia now no longer produces sugar. The Mogambo Rice Project The Mogambo Rice Project was developed in 1982–86 to cover 2,052 hectares of paddy rice fields and 163 hectares of sprinkler-irrigated land planted with cotton (Sir McDonald & Partners Ltd. 1982). Associated farms benefited from the project’s irrigation and drainage canals, offices, houses, and office building. The civil war began right after the first phase of the project was completed. As a result, the plant was swiftly looted and never produced the 10,000 tons of rice a year it had planned to produce. Because the project’s irrigation infrastructure and upstream flood control embankments were not maintained, the farmland is also no longer cultivated. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 21 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth Bananas, maize, grapefruit, sugarcane, cotton, and of such conflicts. Clan affiliation is only a tool to rice were the major crops grown in the region, some achieve the ultimate and legitimate objective of of them cultivated under large public projects (box obtaining the resources necessary for sustaining life 2.4). Some, including maize and sesame, still partially and human security. benefit from flood irrigation and recession farming following periods of high water levels. 2.1.4 Postharvest Storage Facilities for Crops Postharvest losses are substantial across Somalia. In contrast to infrastructure in southern Somalia, Average grain losses in southern Somalia are irrigation infrastructure in Somaliland and Puntland estimated at 20–30 percent of the harvest and may was and remains very limited. The North-West exceed this range in some cases. The loss is on the Development Project is among the few agriculture order of 50,000–80,000 tons of cereals a year, valued interventions in Somaliland. It seeks to improve at $15–$20 million. A baseline survey conducted the soil banding that was used mostly by sorghum by the Somali Agriculture Technical Group (SATG) farmers under rainfed conditions to conserve revealed that grain losses associated with traditional moisture and stop soil erosion. In Puntland the storage systems (underground pits) are significantly development of date palm plantations was a major higher (40 percent) than losses associated with intervention. It included improvements in associated postharvest techniques (harvesting, transportation, irrigation infrastructure through small canals that and drying) (20 percent) (SATG 2009).17 provide water from shallow wells or water springs to small-scale farmers. One of the state’s priority The most commonly used grain storage practices in is to develop rainwater harvesting technology, as the main rainfed grain cultivation areas in the Bay and groundwater in Puntland is too deep or its quality too Bakool regions are traditional underground storage poor for consumption and irrigation. pits lined with clay. This system is highly prone to moisture contamination, particularly during the rainy 2.1.3 Water as a Source of Conflict season, and bacteria and fungi contamination. The Recurrent scarcity of water is a major political health hazards—including stunted growth, delayed issue in Somalia, with the power to move millions development, liver damage, and liver cancer—have of people from their homelands. Particularly in even more serious effects than the economic loss. the central and northern regions of the country, it They include a significant hazard from aflatoxin, a is one of the main sources of social conflict, as the highly toxic dark mold produced by fungi when grain pressing demand for water during the dry season is not very dry at storage time or is affected later by by pastoralists creates conflict between them and the seepage of water. sedentary agriculture communities. Even in southern Somalia, where competition for water is far less As a result of the baseline survey, the SATG, in fierce than in the northern regions, the struggle over partnership with the FAO and the European Union, land and water resources is a major driving force introduced household metal silos, produced by local underlying the civil war. artisans, that can hold 120–250 kilograms of grain (SATG 2009). Their use could expand through effective Conflicts over water often erupt when wells dry up extension service, which needs to be put in place and and the local water supply diminishes, particularly strengthened by government, with assistance from during dry seasons and dry years, and when new the donor community and civil society. Figure 2.1 groups of pastoralists settle in a new area in shows traditional grain storage pits before and after search of water. Neither clan affiliation (tribalism) improvements and the metal grain silos. nor hostility within Somali society is the root cause 22 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth Figure 2.1: Traditional Postharvest Grain Storage Pits and Metal Grain Silos before and after Rehabilitation 2.1.5 Food Safety charter for International Standards for Phytosanitary Food safety systems reduce the risks of food Measures. Establishment of a phytosanitary center poisoning and the effects of pests and diseases. is imperative. They protect consumers, the natural environment, and vital ecosystems. By enabling countries to meet To start addressing the lack of government oversight the stringent sanitary and phytosanitary measures over food safety, in 2014, the SATG, in partnership required by both foreign governments and major with the federal Ministry of Agriculture, surveyed private supermarket chains, they also support all pre–civil war laws and regulations, including agricultural exports.18 Lack of or inadequate food phytosanitary standards. National and international safety systems (legal framework, good records, experts were engaged to review the old policies and testing and inspection facilities, and so on) severely develop new regulations while harmonizing with reduces both export capacity and the ability to policies in use elsewhere in East Africa. Consultations ensure the safety of imports. were conducted with various stakeholders in the agriculture sector. Somalia has great potential to expand its domestic agricultural market and opportunities to improve The policies developed included the Plant Protection its exports of agricultural products. It can do so, Act, the Seed and Plant Variety Act, and subsidiary however, only by complying with local, regional, and legislation, as well as manuals for phytosanitary export market requirements and standards. inspection procedures.19 However, the ministry has yet to review these documents or submit them to the Somalia does not have in place a plant health Cabinet of Ministers. Once endorsed by the Cabinet, inspectorate services center. It is not a party they would have to be submitted to Parliament for to the World Trade Organization’s Sanitary and further discussion and legislative approval. The Phytosanitary Agreement or a contracting party to Ministry of Agriculture plan includes training its staff the International Plant Protection Convention, the key on agriculture policies and regulations, deploying Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 23 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth inspection staff, and establishing laboratories is limited, and their facilities are very basic at best. to evaluate the safety of selected foods. Once Most livestock are exported through the northern Parliament passes the laws, the challenge for the ports of Bosaso and Berbera. Agriculture produce government will be to ensure adequate enforcement is exported mainly through the Port of Mogadishu, at major ports, among local private storage facilities, which is managed by a Turkish company. and in local markets. Somalia had about 22,000 kilometers of roads in the 2.1.6 Transport Infrastructure late 1980s, of which 2,757 kilometers were paved Airport, seaport, and road infrastructure are crucial (World Bank and UNDP 2007). On the eve of the civil for accessing inputs and exporting agricultural war, some of the paved trunk roads were already products. Efficient air transport can boost the export in poor conditions and being reconstructed (for of fresh fish, fruits, and vegetables without the need example, the one linking Mogadishu to Kismayo) or to rely on costly refrigerated cargo ships. in need of reconstruction. The Mogadishu–Kismayo road, which passed through several agriculture All prewar airports are functioning, though their villages in the Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba contribution to Somalia’s agricultural development regions, served as the main transport route for and exports is very small. Recently, Somalia began milk and agriculture products to Mogadishu. It is no exporting shark fins and chilled meat to the United longer in use for vehicles. Most other paved roads in Arab Emirates from the Mogadishu airport, which southern Somalia, including those linking Mogadishu Turkey has rehabilitated and improved, extending the to Middle Shabelle (Jowhar), Hiran (Beletweyn), and runway and building a new modern terminal. Other Mudug (Galkayo), are extremely deteriorated, as a airports include Kismayo, Baidoa, Marka, and Belet result of lack of maintenance. In addition, the vertisol Weyne in southern Somalia; Galkayo, Garowe, and soil in these regions causes cracks in paved roads. Bosaso in Puntland, the latter two recently enlarged; and Hargeisa and Berbera in Somaliland. In the southern regions, major and minor gravel roads, including virtually all farm access roads, have Only two international airlines serve Somalia: also deteriorated to the point that they are not Turkish Airways (between Istanbul and Mogadishu) passable during the rainy season; when passable in and Ethiopian Airlines (between Addis Ababa and drier times, travel times are much longer than they Hargeisa). Daallo Airlines, Jubba Airways, and used to be, causing spoilage to produce, particularly African Express Airways serve all domestic airports in milk, fruits, and vegetables, on the way to major Somalia. The International Civil Aviation Organization markets. Moreover, illegal road taxation by both recently transferred management and control of the Al-Shabaab and militia group wearing government country’s air space from the Civil Caretaker Authority uniforms at various checkpoints and high government for Somalia (CACAS) to the Somali Air Space taxation at the ports are major constraints facing Management Center (ASMC). producers and exporters. Despite the civil unrest and destruction of the civil In the northern regions, Italy completed the war, the country’s four major seaports (Mogadishu, Galkayo–Garowe–Bosaso road a few months before Berbera, Kismayo, and Bosaso) are still fully the civil war begin. The project and the Bosaso operational, though lack of maintenance has caused port provided the economic backbone for the some minor deterioration in the operations of establishment and development of Puntland. Both Mogadishu and Kismayo ports. The ports’ capacity still remain in relatively good condition. Most of the 24 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth major roads in Somaliland as well as its seaport at 2.2 Lack of Education and Training Berbera are also in relatively good condition. What is lacking in the northern regions are secondary roads All prewar technical schools and universities were that can facilitate access from rural and coastal towns destroyed in the war, and 80 percent of highly to larger urban markets along the main highways. skilled professionals emigrated (Lindley 2005). On the eve of the civil war, the only prewar university, 2.1.7 Telecommunications the Somali National University, had 15 departments, Despite the civil war, Somalia’s telecommunication about 5,000 students, and about 700 teaching staff. services have flourished. In the late 2000s, the It received financial support from the European largest telecommunication companies (Hormud Union and the U.S., Canadian, Saudi, and Italian Telecom, National Link, and Telecom Somalia) had governments, including teaching support from combined coverage of 1.8 million mobile phone users various Italian universities. Some departments, (Shiekh and Mohamed 2009; Canada 2015). Today, including agriculture, ran collaborative programs seven telecom companies provide mobile and fixed- with U.S. and Canadian universities.20 line telephone and internet services. In the absence of government-supported Until recently, Internet access depended mainly on educational institutions, community and privately satellites. In 2013, the first fiber-optic broadband supported schools and universities emerged network was built. Managed by Hormud Telecom, it throughout the country. Some offer degree programs covers both the north and the south of the country. in crops, livestock, and fishery sciences (see appendix The estimated penetration rate for Internet services D for a list of higher education institutions).21 Despite remains very low, at 2.1 percent of the population these efforts, Somalia suffers from an acute shortage in 2015. Coverage of voice and text services is much of skilled technicians and professionals, including in higher, at 58 percent for mobile phones and 0.6 the agricultural sector. percent for fixed lines. Most schools and universities are located in large The large geographical coverage of mobile phone urban centers in Southern Somalia. High fees are a services in Somalia allows pastoral, agro-pastoral, major constraint for poor families. In the northern and farming communities far from major urban regions, the governments of Somaliland and centers to stay in touch with family members Puntland have sought to restore and expand public scattered within Somalia and around the world. education, with free primary education reestablished It also facilitates the receipt of remittances from in 2011 in Somaliland. Primary school enrollment the diaspora, the making of payments, and has increased, but the transition to secondary access to updated information on domestic and education has been challenging, and at both levels international political and economic developments there is still a shortage of places, qualified teachers, and the availability of local services. Modern and resources. In Puntland, for example, 83 percent telecommunications have enabled the pastoral, of teachers never received teacher training, and agro-pastoral, agriculture, and fishing communities less than half of children attend school (Heritage to communicate directly with major markets to Institute 2013). Opportunities for vocational training enquire about market prices, helping help them and higher education are limited to privately owned make informed decisions about selling their products and operated institutions in urban areas, which are or buying inputs and supplies. hard for students from rural households to reach and unaffordable for poor students. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 25 2. Infrastructure and Skills Deficits as Constraints to Growth Private higher education has grown, mostly since of faculties; lack of coordination; the shortage of 2004. By 2013, Somalia had almost 50 higher adequately trained academic staff; limited research education institutions of different sizes and capacities, and teaching capacity; shortages of educational in which more than 50,000 students were enrolled supplies (textbooks, periodicals, journals); and the (Heritage Institute 2013). Several weaknesses lack of scholarships and educational support services undermine both the quality of their offerings and for students from poor families. The private sector access by the poor. They include the absence of employs graduates; cash-strapped government regulation by the governing authorities; attempts institutions, including in the agricultural sector, do so to establish universities in every region; duplication only to a very limited extent. 26 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Chapter 3 INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS AND CHALLENGES Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 27 3. Institutional Constraints and Challenges Key Findings • The civil war resulted in extreme lack of security in Southern Somalia. Armed militias with little farming skills and experience continue to occupy prime farmland in the Lower Shabelle region. Political (and taxation) control over much of the riverine and inter-riverine areas is still being contested between Al-Shabaab, a terrorist insurgency movement, and the national army (supported by the African Union and fledgling new regional administrations). The conflict makes access to farms and market outlets risky, costly, and unprofitable. Such conditions also make interventions by aid agencies extremely challenging. • The long civil war and unrest have created a vacuum in the policy functions, monitoring, and services normally provided by government. Relevant ministries at the federal and state level (for livestock, crops, forestry and rangeland management, and fisheries) provide services in Southern Somalia in only a very limited, fragmented, and inefficient way, because of lack of skilled staff and funding and poor access to most rural areas. • Grazing disputes between neighboring pastoral communities have become more common since the collapse of the pre–civil war government. Recent expansion of private enclosures on traditionally open rangelands, especially along livestock migration and transport corridors and urban centers, have exacerbated tensions. • A complete registry of farms survived the civil war, but regardless of any evidence and rulings, landholders who left their farms in southern Somalia during the civil war are still unable to reclaim their land, because of insecurity, the weakness of traditional arbitration, and the absence of modern judicial institutions. • There are very few farmland disputes in the northern regions, where prewar landholdings were never disrupted. Regional ministries of agricultures have issued proper lease certificates for newly allocated farmland (mostly to new, small farmers). 3.1 Security by aid agencies to rehabilitate agriculture infrastructure in the Southern regions of Somalia The civil war resulted in extreme lack of security extremely challenging. in Southern Somalia. In prime agricultural areas, such as the Lower Shabelle, armed militias with little Somalia has a large number of internally displaced farming skills and experience took over irrigated land people, estimated as of October 2017, at 2.1 million from local farmers and state-owned agriculture land. (UNOCHA 2017). Most live in camps outside urban Armed conflicts damaged irrigation equipment and areas, the largest of which is on the outskirts of prevented maintenance and repairs of flood control Mogadishu. They supplement the humanitarian and irrigation infrastructure and access roads. Al- assistance they receive by supplying manual labor Shabaab still controls vast areas of agriculture land in in nearby towns and throughout the country. the Lower Shabelle region and often launches suicide Some of these people, especially those originating attacks at government-controlled checkpoints and from farming areas in Southern Somalia, provide buildings. The national army, Al-Shabab, and armed manual labor to small and medium-size farms in the militias all operate checkpoints, making access northern regions, where they are contributing to the for farmers to market outlets difficult, costly, and establishment and growth of irrigated agriculture. unprofitable. Poor security also makes interventions 28 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 3. Institutional Constraints and Challenges 3.2 Land Tenure Before the looting of the offices of the Ministry of Agriculture, one of its officials managed to get hold Historically, customary land tenure arrangements of and preserve the complete registry of farms in governed most cultivated land and nearly all Somalia (he still holds these records). For a fee, pastoral land in Somalia. Until independence, in farmers who lost their documentation can obtain 1960, state leasehold tenure based on statutory copies of their land records, which can be used as law was widespread, particularly in riverine proof of ownership in the case of land disputes. agriculture. Land legislation passed in 1975 With all political institutions long reestablished at officially transferred control of tenure rights on the federal level and its agencies in the process of all Somali lands from traditional authorities to the rebuilding their administrative authority and service government. Land registration procedure allowed delivery capacity, the time has come for the Ministry landholders to register no more than 30 hectares of Agriculture to reclaim these important records and of irrigated land and no more than 60 hectares of to manage new requests for land titles. nonirrigated land as state leaseholds, with a 50- year lease, subject to renewal. With most farmed land currently privately owned (under long-term leases), traditional and religious Land registration was closely linked with leaders’ recommendations and decisions are government programs aimed at establishing usually accepted by parties in conflict in rural areas modern corporate agriculture. Various government where there are no armed conflicts. However, laws and programs passed in the 1970s promoted many prime farms in the Lower Shabelle are still the establishment of state farms, cooperatives, occupied by militiamen from outside the region who and large private plantations under state leasehold fought against the Siad Barre regime. Landholders tenure. These policies concentrated land ownership, who left those farms for safety after the start of displaced landholders, and decreased tenure security the civil war are still unable to reclaim their land, for landholders without leasehold rights. The high despite documentary or traditional evidence costs of leasehold acquisition and complicated and rulings, because of insecurity, the weakness land registration procedures gave wealthier and of traditional arbitration, and the absence of better-connected individuals an advantage in modern judicial institutions. The displacement acquiring leasehold title (Roth 1988). This system of farmers, deteriorated infrastructure, and was nonetheless crucial for attracting domestic continuing insecurity are among the major reasons investors to farming and to the overall strong prewar for the reduction in the area cultivated and crop performance of the sector. production in southern Somalia. The Department of Water and Land Management Unlike in southern Somalia, there are very few of the federal Ministry of Agriculture provided disputes over farmland in the northern regions, certificates for renewable 50-year leases of where landholding was never disrupted. Regional farmland to small and commercial large farmers. ministries of agriculture have issued proper lease The certificates included the size, the map of the certificates for newly allocated farmland (mostly to farm, and the borders with neighboring farms. new small farmers). Even in the south, however, state Similar certificates also existed for government- institutions play only a limited role in resolving land owned farms. Land disputes were usually resolved or contractual disputes. by the farming communities themselves or by the Ministry of Agriculture. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 29 3. Institutional Constraints and Challenges Under Somali pastoral traditional norms, local maintenance, and rehabilitation of irrigation and communities collectively use and share rangelands flood control infrastructure; agricultural research and forests. Grazing disputes that would lead to and extension services; plant protection; and soil fighting between neighboring pastoral communities and water conservation.22 The Ministry of Livestock, have become more common since the collapse of Forestry, and Rangeland provided veterinary the pre–civil war government in all parts of Somalia, services, managed forests, ranges, and livestock even at the borders with Ethiopia and Kenya. These holding grounds; issued livestock certification; and conflicts are often resolved by local community protected natural reserves and wildlife. The Ministry elders and religious leaders, however, with local of Fisheries protected coastal and marine resources, district or regional authorities (including neighboring issued fishing licenses, and enhanced the fishery authorities in Ethiopia and Kenya) intervening only in subsector production and marketing. the case of major risk of interclan fighting. The three federal ministries now provide services Disputes between farming communities are also in a very fragmented, limited, and inefficient way, usually mediated by community elders and religious because of lack of skilled staff and funding and leaders. However, the civil war resulted in the limited access to most rural areas. A similar division takeover of prime farming areas in Southern Somalia of responsibilities exists in Somaliland, Puntland (box by armed militias from other, more pastoralist areas. 3.1), Jubaland, Galmudug, and South West. Traditional mediation attempts have not yet led to a resolution of this thorny issue, especially in the 3.4 Civil Society Institutions Lower Shabelle region, where local communities are involved in a bitter land dispute with other The knowledge vacuum created during the long civil communities from central Somalia. war was filled by specialized agencies and programs of international development organizations To improve land tenure management, the such as the Somalia Water and Land Information Department of Water and Land Management needs Management (SWALIM, the Food Security and to be strengthened. One way to do so is to create Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), and the Somalia a formalized land commission unit consisting of Food Early Warning System (FEWS),23 which monitor elders from various communities, religious leaders water and land availability, food security, and prices. who are already engaged in land tenure resolutions, civil society engaged in conflict resolution, and the With support from external donors, civil society (local Ministry of Agriculture. The process should be led and international NGOs, professional associations, and by community elders with experience in conflict the private sector) have also stepped up to provide resolution. Recovering the land registration data held some services. These services include the following: by a former employee of the ministry would also • vaccinating livestock (provided by Somalia’s improve land tenure management. Livestock Professional Association) • digging wells and water storage systems 3.3 Government Institutions • training people in agriculture, livestock, and fishery Before the civil war, the Ministry of Agriculture; the • distributing seeds, fertilizer, and tools to farmers Ministry of Livestock, Forestry, and Rangeland; and • rehabilitating flood control and irrigation the Ministry of Fisheries formulated the legal and infrastructure regulatory instruments and support services for their • building agriculture markets and rehabilitating respective subsectors. The Ministry of Agriculture fish landing sites. was responsible for land tenure; construction, 30 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 3. Institutional Constraints and Challenges Box 3.1: Environmental Institutions in Puntland In its comments over the consultation draft of this report, the Puntland government pointed out that its institutional framework for managing its environmental challenges was already in place, as it had enacted an Environmental Law and Environmental Impact Assessment Regulations and developed a five-year Environmental Strategic Plan, a Climate Change and Drought Management Strategy, and Draft Disaster Risk Management Strategy, in addition to policies on the environment, rangeland, waste management, and rural land. Since its establishment, in 2009, the Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism has carried out massive environmental rehabilitation activities, including soil and water conservation; gully control; sand dune fixation; reforestation; rainwater harvesting through the development of water infrastructure (subsurface dams, improved earth dams, and so forth); and an environmental protection program, through the establishment of rangers who report to the district environmental offices. It decentralized some functions to the local governments of Qardho, Eyl, and Galkayo and to all communities across Puntland by establishing District Pastoral Associations and Village Environmental Committees. The main functions decentralized are environmental protection, awareness and trainings, and reforestation and rangeland rehabilitation. With support from donors and development in both public and private settings. Women are agencies like the FAO, the International Committee of responsible for the bearing and raising of children, the Red Cross, and World Vision, some international the full range of domestic tasks, and petty trading. NGOs have distributed heavy machinery (tractors, During noncrisis periods, men and women in agro- water pumps, and farm implements) to agriculture pastoral communities also maintain a well-defined, cooperatives and sesame seed cleaning and synergistic partnership in livestock and crop processing equipment to farmers and exporters. All production activities. Indeed, women account for 45 interventions were subject to the approval of relevant percent of people involved in livestock management government institutions, local authorities’ armed and crop and natural resource harvesting (FAO 2010). militias, and Al-Shabab, which collect taxes, informal fees, or zakat (obligatory charity payment under Men and boys are responsible for most activities Islamic law) and alms from the communities in which related to camels, including buying, owning, grazing, they have a presence. Some of the NGO interventions milking, slaughtering, and selling them. Women are resulted in measurable successes, but others failed, responsible for the sale and processing of camel because of lack of security and experience and byproducts, such as milk and ghee. They control at mismanagement of resources. In addition, the least 80 percent of the country’s milk production and unconditional provision of aid created dependency 100 percent of milk collection. Women and children on donor-supported interventions. Most of these are also tasked with raising and tending to sheep interventions were also short term and unsustainable. and goats (shoats). Men and women are jointly responsible for shoat trade and export. Men typically 3.5 Gender Dynamics in Agricultural handle major livestock trade for export; women’s Production engagement is usually local, at the subsistence level (FSNAU 2012). Somali society maintains clearly delineated gender roles and responsibilities. Men are traditionally Somali men and women have always shared crop- identified as protectors of family security, primary related responsibilities, especially in subsistence breadwinners, and the central decision makers farming, where women provide more than 60 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 31 3. Institutional Constraints and Challenges percent of labor. Women’s productivity has been constitutes an important survival mechanism constrained by weak land tenure and limited access (Gardner 2004). Women sometimes take children to extension services, with negative implications for and move to a camp for internally displaced people food security, rural poverty, and overall economic for greater access to resources and security, although growth. Before the war, only 28 percent of women in these migrations often increase their exposure to the Juba valley owned any livestock; only 14 percent security threats. Men migrate to urban centers owned farms; and the farms they owned tended to be in search of economic opportunities. Women the least productive, least secure, rainfall-dependent sometimes travel to towns to engage in petty trade dryland plots (NRC, UN-HABITAT, and UNHCR 2008). and work in the informal economy. The insecurity of land tenure for women partly reflects complex dynamics extending from the These shifts have increased women’s engagement in interaction of multiple legal systems and socio- income-generating activities and broader business cultural norms that undermine women’s capacity development opportunities. An assessment of and agency within Somali society. Agricultural livelihood activities in Baidoa reveals that women extension did not reach women farmers effectively. provide 20 percent of unskilled labor in the To address this issue, USAID recommended that construction sector and 70 percent in petty trade agribusiness initiatives include women agents (FSNAU 2012). Another study estimates that 60 (Quisumbing and Pandolfelli 2010). percent of Somali business owners are women, although they are concentrated in the micro- Women and men maintain differentiated roles in the sector, characterized by economic activities that fisheries value chain. Most fishers are men, although are irregular, informal, and of low value (UNDP there is evidence of women’s engagement in fishing 2014). There is also evidence that Somali women at least at subsistence levels. Women are engaged in are becoming increasingly active in nontraditional processing, trading, and support activities. Additional economic activities, such as livestock trading and research is needed to understand the gender marketing in various sectors (Ibrahim 2004). dynamics of this subsector and identify potential opportunities for expanding the roles of both men Somali women confront numerous barriers to and women. expanded economic engagement. They include lack of access to financial resources; extreme Gender roles shift in the face of crisis, as men and time poverty, linked to domestic and reproductive women adopt different coping strategies to increase constraints; insufficient market research on viable household resilience. Recurrent drought conditions opportunities; and lack of access to formal networks and other climate-related events have contributed to provide business guidance. to the increasing sedentarization of pastoral populations. Several reports note increasing reliance Narrowing gender gaps in agricultural production on satellite systems of livestock management, as would have significant benefits for growth, poverty families engage in agricultural activities in permanent reduction, and food security. If further developed or semi-permanent households while male family and modernized, the milk sector in particular presents members migrate with herds for pasture and water a promising opportunity for women’s economic (FSNAU 2012). Women often remain home with expansion (see chapter 5). A revived banana sector children; the elderly; and pregnant, lactating; or would create many jobs, including for women, as it sick animals (Ibrahim 2004). Family splitting thus did before the war (see chapter 6). 32 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Chapter 4 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS AND CHALLENGES Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 33 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges Key Findings • Severe environmental degradation of rangelands and forested areas and climate change in the Horn of Africa region have severely affected the livestock and crop subsectors in the last few decades. By the late 1980s, virtually all of Somalia’s floodplain forests had been cleared for irrigated agriculture production. Since 1990, Somalia has lost an average of almost 1 percent a year of its forests. By 2014, total forest cover was only 10 percent of the country’s land area, down from 62 percent before 1980. • The move toward more private enclosures for livestock grazing and semi-permanent family shelters has exacerbated these problems. This phenomenon is still gathering speed. It poses a major management and enforcement challenge to local government officials and traditional rulers. • The main cause of large-scale deforestation of the rangelands has been the massive and unsustainable cutting of acacia trees to produce charcoal. Annual charcoal exports reached $56 million at their peak in 2011, from zero in the late 1980s through the mid-1990s. Since 2012, adoption and increasingly effective enforcement of charcoal export bans by the federal and northern regional governments, the introduction of gas stoves, and growing awareness of the devastating environmental consequences of continuing production have significantly reduced demand for and thus the production of charcoal in Somalia. Internationally supported export bans appear to have been effective, as recorded imports by the rest of the world of charcoal from Somalia fell to almost zero in 2013, but illegal exports continue. Until recently, the sale of charcoal provided a major source of revenue for Al-Shabaab. • In the late 1980s, Somalia was the world’s largest producer and exporter of frankincense and myrrh. Wide fluctuations in exports are related partly to overexploitation and poor harvesting practices by a new generation of tree owners and minders eager to maximize short-term earnings but unaware of the trees’ long-term health needs. • Severe deforestation and other environmental degradation of rangelands already threaten the viability of both the livestock and crop subsectors. It reflects unregulated human activity and overgrazing as well as erratic and diminishing water flows in major rivers from increasing use of water in upstream basins in the Ethiopian highlands. • Weather phenomena—including fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, humidity, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed—have already become increasingly unpredictable and extreme across the Horn of Africa. Increases in air and sea surface temperatures have also been observed. Eight major droughts in the last four decades have severely affected crop and livestock production in Somalia. By early 2017, the cumulative impact of various failed successive rainy seasons had created a serious humanitarian crisis that threatened to become a famine in a few areas. • The climate in the region is projected to become even drier, more erratic, and more extreme than in recent decades and thus less favorable to crop, livestock, fisheries, and forestry-based livelihood systems. Most but not all climate models predict higher rainfall rather than drier conditions, but all scientists agree on a warmer future, with increased variability and frequency of extreme rainfall events. • The consequences of such climatic changes are dire. Higher air temperatures will increase evapotranspiration,24 and more variable and extreme rainfall on already barren soils will reduce spatial infiltration and facilitate more run-off and erosion, resulting in less groundwater recharge and less water availability in the surface layers for plant growth. Other likely impacts include reduction of vegetation for grazing and more variable water availability, with grave impacts on livestock herding and related livelihoods. Rising sea temperatures and acidification will also reduce fish stocks and change their distribution. 34 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges 4.1 Threats to Forests and Rangelands along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, and its savannah and bushland—were estimated to cover 39 million The main type of vegetation on the open savannah hectares or about 62 percent of the country’s land and bushlands of Somalia is the acacia tree. It provides area (Openshow 1982). Between 1990 and 20009, browse resources and firewood as well as material Somalia lost an average of 76,750 hectares, or 0.93 for house construction and livestock enclosures. percent of its forests a year (FAO 2010). FAOSTAT Tree cover becomes denser in the south, as rainfall estimates that by 2014 the total remaining forest increases and soil types become more favorable for coverage was only 6.4 million hectares, or 10.3 tree growing (and crop production), especially in the percent of the country’s total land area. flood plains along the two major rivers. By the end of the 1980s, virtually all the floodplain The northeastern part of the country, where the soil forest that once existed along the Shabelle and Juba is poor and rainfall low, has very little vegetation. rivers had been cleared for irrigated agriculture In the remote northern Golis Mountains along the production; only the poorly accessible Middle Gulf of Aden, the misty juniper forest was and still is Juba region retained areas of relic floodplain a very important center of biodiversity and species forest. Two recent developments contributed to endemism. This area, other hilly areas, and even large-scale deforestation on the rangelands: the richer riverine woodlands provide fodder and allow move toward more private enclosures for livestock pastoralists to manage risk during the dry seasons grazing and semipermanent family shelters and the and periods of drought (IUCN 2006). booming charcoal production for illegal exports. The second phenomenon appears to have been partially Various trees of economic importance are addressed, but the first one is still gathering speed found in Somalia. The northeastern region has and poses a major management and enforcement Boswelia species, which produce frankincense. challenge to governments and traditional rulers (see The southwestern and northeastern regions have chapter 5). Commiphora, which produces myrrh, and Cordeaxia edulis (now considered an endangered species), 4.1.1 Charcoal, Somalia’s “Black Gold’ which produces yicib nuts. Various acacia species Since the end of the civil war, the most damaging are endemic to Somalia. They produce gum arabic exploitation of forest species has been the cutting of (known as habag ma’an in Somalia).25 Other trees acacia species on the rangelands to make charcoal for of economic value include Lawsonia inermis, which export for shisha (hookah tobacco smoking), mostly produces henna, and various fruit trees (for example, to the Gulf States, in addition to its traditional use tamarind). Wild fruit trees that produce important for local cooking. The Somali government banned medicinal products and are tolerant to water stress charcoal exports in 1969. Soon after the collapse of are valued both locally and internationally (UNEP the Barre regime, exports from the Bari and Sanaag 2005; IUCN 2006). They include Zizysphus mauritiana, regions to the United Arab Emirates began. They were Boscia coriacea, Cordia sinensis, Balanites spp., and followed by a rapid expansion of charcoal production Dobera glabra. throughout the country destined for export to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, in addition to the United Arab In 1980, Somalia’s total forest resources—including Emirates; smaller quantities were also exported to the juniper zone in the high-altitude areas of the Oman and India. All of these countries highly prize Golis range, the riverine and floodplain forests Somali charcoal for its aroma. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 35 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges Production of charcoal soared from about 180,000 as the sector generated combined domestic and tons in 1961 to 420,000 tons in 1991 and almost 1.2 export revenues of about $360–$384 million a year million tons in 2013, according to FAOSTAT (figure (UNSC 2014). Relatively reliable official trade data 4.1). These estimates are unreliable, however, and from partner countries (shown in figure 4.1) indicate the trend in the most recent years is inconsistent a rapid and steady rise in charcoal imports by the with the decline in recorded exports. In 1980–84, rest of the world from Somalia, from virtually nil annual charcoal consumption in Mogadishu alone ($100,000) in 1998 to a peak of $56.7 million in 2011, was estimated at about 32,000–45,000 tons; before falling back to a still sizable $35.8 million in consumption in the rest of the country was estimated 2012. At its peak in the early 2010s, 80 percent of at 30,000–35,000 tons, for a nationwide total of only Somali production was exported, with about 41,000 about 62,000–80,000 tons a year. Already by the end people in Somalia and the Gulf engaged in its value of the 1980s, all charcoal consumed in Mogadishu chain. It was a major source of funding for terrorism and other main urban centers was sourced from (box 4.1). several hundred kilometers away, as all close-in locations had been depleted (Bird and Shepherd The increase in production and exports of charcoal 1989). The estimated annual inflow of charcoal to is the main cause of the massive deforestation Hargeisa was 65,000 tons in 1999, corresponding to and deterioration of both the southern and daily household consumption of 4.2 kilograms and northern rangelands, which has led to intensified more than 1.6 million trees on about 4,000 hectares desertification, soil erosion, gully formation, and (Odouri and others 2011). a reduction of land use for both agricultural and pastoral livestock production (World Bank and By the mid-2000s, charcoal production, driven by UNDP 2007). The extensive losses caused by charcoal booming exports, had already become a concern in burning have also led to rapid environmental the areas around Hargeisa and major towns in the degradation in the Sool-Sanaag plateau in north, which sourced their charcoal from as far away northeastern Somalia (Puntland)—an extremely arid as the Sool plateau. By the early 2010s, Kismayo plateau, where recovery of tree cover is extremely and Brava, both under the control of Al-Shabab, had slow. For 2001–06, an average annual tree loss of become the two major hubs for charcoal exports. By about 3 percent and a five-year cumulative decrease then, charcoal was dubbed Somalia’s “black gold,” of about 13 percent was estimated by the FAO in Figure 4.1: Estimated Annual Production and Export of Wood Charcoal by Somalia, 1992–2016 1,400 60.0 1,200 50.0 1,000 Millions of dollars 40.0 Metric tons 800 30.0 600 400 20.0 200 10.0 0 - 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Production (MT) Export Value (US$ Million) Source: FAOSTAT for production estimates, COMTRADE for exports. 36 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges Box 4.1: The Charcoal Trade and Terrorism in Somalia The cafés on Abu Dhabi’s seafront fill as soon as the sun sets and the heat abates. Men gather around water pipes, smoking tobacco flavored with a dizzying array of aromas and scents, including melon, strawberries, and cappuccino. A thin boy scurries from table to table with a bucket of hot charcoal made from Somali acacia trees. It is particularly prized in the Gulf states, because it burns longer than alternatives from other countries. This quality comes at a price: Somali charcoal retails for almost twice the price of inferior charcoal. The men enjoying such evening idylls may not have known it, but their love of smoking has helped fuel a bloody insurgency more than 3,000 kilometers to the south, in Somalia. In October 2016, the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea noted that there had been some positive trends in terms of implementation of the charcoal export ban. As first noted in late 2015, Al-Shabaab continued its strategic shift away from the charcoal trade, attacking or jailing charcoal burners and traders operating within its territory but not paying the requested taxes to the group. Importing countries had improved their enforcement of the ban. (It has proved adept at offsetting declining charcoal revenue by increasing taxation of other natural resources and commodities, such as the illicit sugar trade, agricultural production in southern Somalia, and livestock in central Somalia.) As late as early 2016, the United Arab Emirates was still accepting fake certificates of origin that indicated that Somali charcoal originated in the Comoros Islands, Ghana, Pakistan, and other countries, however, and confiscated Somali charcoal was routinely sold at auctions at below-market prices and in quantities much lower than those actually confiscated. As of May 2016, however, the United Arab Emirates was enforcing its ban on charcoal exporters from Somalia. Source: UNSC (2016) and press reports, including https://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2015/Mar/98481/somali_charcoal_funding_terrorism_through_ deforestation.aspx. this area, which is frequently hit by droughts and cooking stoves, and the inefficient process used famines. In southern Somalia, charcoal production for making charcoal (box 4.2), such local use was typically occurred in the denser part of dry sustainable. The large-scale logging of living trees for woodlands or woody savannah. The last average tree charcoal export after the start of the civil war is not, loss rate estimated by the FAO was about 2.7 percent because the acacia trees do not grow quickly enough for 2011–13, which is in line with the 7.2 percent to replace the felled ones.26 reported by other studies over longer periods (such as in 2006–12). About 80 percent of the trees used In 2012, the FGS and the governments of Somaliland for charcoal are acacia species; it is estimated that 25 and Puntland imposed an export ban. UN percent of all prewar acacia trees have been chopped Security Council Resolution 2036 (2012) called for and made into charcoal (Ismail 2011). international cooperation to stem the illegal export trade of charcoal from Somalia. These initiatives have The acacia species has traditionally been an led to a large reduction in exports (see figure 4.1), important source of grazing for goats and camels, especially from the two major northern ports, where fencing of livestock in night enclosures, nitrogen governments are capable of enforcing the ban. By fixation to enhance soil fertility, and (mostly) dead 2013, recorded charcoal exports from Somalia (as dry trees and tree branches for cooking. Before the measured by imports recorded by the rest of the war, charcoal production served only domestic urban world from Somalia) had virtually stopped, with only households. Despite the lack of alternative sources $0.8 million showing up in the COMTRADE database. of energy for domestic cooking, the use of inefficient Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 37 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges Box 4.2: The Profitable Business of Charcoal Before the civil war, small-scale groups of cutters felled acacia trees for charcoal, but they felled only dead trees, yielding enough charcoal for local use. After the start of the civil war, when export became one of the few ways to earn foreign exchange, businesspeople, armed militias, and politicians combined forces to cut both dry and living trees. Their new integrated line of business expanded rapidly. The incentives for charcoal exports are clear. In the domestic market, a 25-kilogram bag of charcoal sells for $8, with $2–$3 shared by the producer and vendor (generally women) and the rest captured by militias and traders. Charcoal exported to the Middle East is sold at $12 for a 25- to 30-kilogram bag. About $1–$2 is paid to the laborer producing the charcoal, and $10–$11 is shared among traders, militia groups, and transporters. The charcoal trade is closely linked with sugar importation. Many vessels offload commodities at Kismayo before reloading with charcoal for their return journey. Export taxes on this trade generate $400,000–$800,000 a year for various state and nonstate groups, including Al-Shabaab. Despite the booming trade, the making of charcoal remains artisanal. The felled trees are chopped and their trunks and branches stacked in piles and covered with sand; a fire is then lit from underneath that burns slowly to make charcoal. This process is a very inefficient method of making charcoal and results in considerable waste, including charcoal dust (FGS 2015). Source: https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21623793-unlikely-link-between-gulf-lounges-and-somalias-jihadists-charred-harvest Illegal exports from the major southern ports Recorded 2016–17 shipments are believed to have continued for some years after the introduction been small, and mostly exported not from major of the export ban, as a result of collusion by state ports but from smaller, less-monitored ports.28 and local governments and their monitoring and enforcement agencies with charcoal traffickers. In 2014–16, gas stoves became very popular in The Monitoring Group continues to receive reports major cities in Somalia, thanks largely to the influx of collusion between the southern governments (in of Somalis from the diaspora. Somali entrepreneurs particular the Jubaland administration) and their have taken advantage of this business opportunity enforcement agencies and charcoal traffickers, by marketing gas stoves imported from neighboring and dhows laden with charcoal continue to depart countries. The combination of the export ban, from Kismayo and Buur Gaabo and arrive in Dubai. the introduction of gas stoves, and the growing Customs authorities in importing countries in the awareness of the devastating environmental Gulf were also slow to reject fake certificates of origin consequences of continuing domestic consumption disguising Somali charcoal as being produced in other among elders, clan leaders, government officials, and countries or export documentation misclassifying politicians represents a strong opportunity to reduce Somali charcoal as something else.27 Although the charcoal production and its negative impact on the commercial networks that sustain charcoal exports environment. These factors will likely continue to from Somalia into the United Arab Emirates remain significantly reduce demand for and thus production in place, the developments noted in box 4.1 have of charcoal in Somalia. reduced volume, particularly since May 2016. 38 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges 4.1.2 Resins The value of exports of gums and resins was about In the late 1980s, Somalia was the world’s largest $7.3 million in 2014 (figure 4.2). Estimates by the producer and exporter of frankincense and myrrh FSNAU of resin and gum export volumes are partial (box 4.3). It produced about 10,000–14,000 tons of and unreliable; reported annual fluctuations in frankincense a year and 1,500–2,000 tons of myrrh volumes may thus reflect faulty data monitoring (World Bank and UNDP 2007). The combined export and collection. Dollar export value estimates are value of raw gums averaged about $7.1 million, more reliable than volumes, as they come from the representing the country’s fourth-largest source of customs records of importing countries. However, the foreign exchange earnings (see the entry in table 1.4 in gums and resins figures for 2015 and 2016 appear to chapter 1 for crude animal and vegetable material).29 reflect the new inclusion of (illegal) charcoal exports, as “wood and wood charcoal” exports, under which By the mid-2000s, average annual export volumes charcoal had been previously classified, suddenly had fallen to about 4,000 tons, according to the dropped to zero in 2013 (as shown in table 1.4 and FSNAU. They fluctuated between a peak of 11,400 figure 4.1). tons in 2007 to less than 2,000 tons in 2013. Figure 4.2: Exports of Resin and Gum by Somalia, 2005–16 12.0 25.0 10.0 20.0 Millions of dollars 8.0 Metric tons 15.0 6.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports (MT) Exports (US$ Million) 2016 Source: Volume figures are from FSNAU; dollar figures are from COMTRADE. Box 4.3: What are Frankincense and Myrrh? Frankincense comes from Boswellia trees, which grow at higher altitudes. Myrrh is extracted from commiphora trees, which grow on lower slopes. Both kinds of tree grow naturally in the rocky mountains of the Sanaag and Bari regions. They are harvested from three northern ecological zones: the Al Madow Mountains, a westerly escarpment that runs parallel to the coast; the Al Miskeed Mountains, a middle segment of the escarpment; and the Karkaar Mountain range or eastern escarpment. Both kinds of resins are used in herbal medicines, essential oils, and perfume as well as in religious ceremonies, including in Europe (mainly France). China has become the largest market for all these resins, mainly for use in traditional medicine. Another important market is the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, where a special type of frankincense is used as a naturally scented chewing gum. The high-quality grade of this resin, which is pure white in color, sells for $12 a kilogram—six times the price of the best inedible frankincense. Smaller quantities of a lower grade are also exported to the Middle East for burning in the home and to Catholic and Orthodox Christian churches all over the world for ceremonial burning. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 39 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges Puntland and to a lesser degree Somaliland used start-up (the Neo Trading Company), financed with to be the world’s leading producers and exporters both family and USAID grant funding, built a new of frankincense, including of its rare high-quality processing plant in Hargeisa. It will extract and export beyo type.30 Myrrh is a gum of lower value and essential oils using steam distillation. With stronger less importance. Somaliland was, with Ethiopia, the environmental stewardship of the country’s forests largest exporter in the world before the civil war. and trees, this subsector retains good potential Sudan and Chad are largely exporters of gum arabic, for expanded value addition and export revenues, which is produced in small quantities in Puntland and though it would have a small impact on employment. exported from Bosaso. 4.2 Climate Change Implications for Several factors are threatening tree growth in Agricultural Growth Somalia. In addition to land degradation and soil erosion from overgrazing and deforestation, they Shifts in air and sea temperatures and rainfall include overharvesting. Proper care requires and patterns linked to climate change portend an traditional stewardship ensured the tapping of resins uncertain future for a country that already every two years. Since the early 1990s, harvesting has suffers from acute levels of economic, social, and increasingly been occurring annually. This practice was environmental fragility. The Center for Global rampant in the early 2000s. This new phenomenon is Development places Somalia at the top of its list of linked to a new generation of people entrusted with 167 countries ranked globally for overall vulnerability the care of these trees by absentee owners living in to climate change, after adjustment for coping cities or abroad or younger owners who are eager to capacity.31 Increasingly erratic rainfall and prolonged maximize short-term earnings and are unaware of periods of severe drought and flooding have already the long-term needs for the trees’ health. Even worse overwhelmed customary coping mechanisms and for the trees, illegal harvesters also collect resins by threatened the viability of traditional agricultural making cuts in the bark only five months after their livelihoods. With few alternatives, many Somalis harvesting. Lured by the high price fetched in both have also turned to unsustainable exploitation of the domestic market ($2–$10 per kilogram) and in natural resources, amplifying the country’s exposure Middle Eastern markets ($25–$50), youth sneak into and vulnerability to future climate shocks. these remote areas during the harvest season to take the resins before legitimate harvesters reach them. The interlinkages between climate variability and After distillation into essential oil, a 1-ounce bottle climate change, environmental degradation and (obtained with less than 1 kilogram of resin) can fetch natural resource depletion, conflict, food insecurity, $70 or more in the West. and poverty are more pronounced in Somalia than in almost any other country. Though broadly All state-owned processing and marketing documented and scrutinized, these dynamics are collapsed at the start of the civil war; all distillation little understood. As the country moves forward to equipment was looted and sold for scrap metal. This consolidate peace dividends and gains from improved subsector was one in which new private investment security, a better understanding of these linkages and in processing took place after the start of the civil the ways in which climate change is likely to affect war, allowing it not only to survive but to thrive agriculture in the coming decades will be critical. and expand. In the early 1990s, a joint Somali- This knowledge can empower decision makers to Kenyan private venture initiated the extraction of identify appropriate policies and investments that essential oils through steam distillation in Nairobi can best support strong and resilient sector growth, from frankincense and myrrh resins gathered in poverty reduction, and sustained economic growth the Bari region of Puntland. In early 2016, a Somali in Somalia. 40 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges In an effort to bridge this knowledge gap, the cereal production (in 1982–83, 1991–92, 1994–95, World Bank commissioned a background paper to 1997–98, 2002–03, 2006–07, 2009–11, and 2015– assess the impacts of climate change on Somalia’s 17). The last crisis created a major humanitarian agriculture sector. Prepared by the Horn of Africa crisis that still threatens to become a famine. Regional Environment Centre and Network (HoA- REC&N), the report surveys the literature on recent Periodic droughts continue to pose the greatest risk weather trends and climate change projections and to Somalia’s agriculture, but the opposite extreme discusses associated risks to the country’s natural can also cripple crop and livestock production. resource base (soils, rangelands, water, and forests) Periods subject to extreme El Niño Southern and traditional livelihood systems. This section draws Oscillation (ENSO) variations are often associated in part from that report.32 with heavy rainfall and widespread flooding— ideal conditions for transmission of the mosquito- 4.2.1 Risks to Agriculture borne virus that causes Rift Valley Fever. Following Taking stock of the sector’s recent performance outbreaks, Middle Eastern countries banned can help identify factors that adversely affected its livestock exports from the Horn of Africa (in 1998– performance and reveal trends. Figure 4.3 depicts 99 and 2000–02), causing estimated losses of $109 a timeline of some of the most notable risk events million and $326 million, respectively (Cagnolati, that affected cereal production and jeopardized Tempia, and Abdi 2006; Antoine-Moussiaux and agricultural livelihoods between 1980 and 2017. others 2012).33 Falling livestock prices and terms of trade and the dramatic depreciation of the shilling The impacts of broad-scale climate events are far (caused in large part by the sudden drop in export more visible than the impacts of conflict. Between tax revenues) emaciated the purchasing power of 1980 and 2017, eight major weather events affected pastoral households (Holleman 2002).34 Figure 4.3: Risk Events Affecting Agriculture in Somalia, 1980–2017 200 Cereal production index (2004=100) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 La Nina El Nino severe flooding extensive flooding 40 1988 El Nino; 1997/98 El Nino; widespread famine, Severe drought El Nino 20 severe drought, displacement 2006/07 2015-17 1982-83 1991/92 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 19980 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Barre government Drought El Nino El Nino overthrown 1994/95 2002/03 2009-11; 1991 severe drought Outbreak Renewed conflict of Civil War in the South 1989-1991 2005-07 Source: FAOSTAT until 1997, FSNAU from 1998. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 41 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges 4.2.2 Historical Climate Patterns weather events over the last 30–60 years (Funk and Much of Somalia’s landmass has long been prone to others 2008; Williams and Funk 2011; Shongwe and extreme weather conditions, including high mean others 2011; Lyon and DeWitt 2012). surface temperatures, periods of extended drought and flooding, erratic rainfall, and strong winds (FGS While aggregate rainfall amounts appear to have 2013; UNDP and ICPAC 2013). Weather conditions fallen, air surface temperatures have climbed. during the year and from one year to the next tend The Horn of Africa region registered a 1.0°C to be highly variable and localized, driven by diverse increase in surface temperatures between 1901 physical processes and a dynamic and complex and 2005, under the combined influence of natural interplay of global and regional weather phenomena, drivers and anthropogenic forces, according to the which obscure both the accuracy of short-term Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC seasonal weather forecasts and long-term climate 2007). Much of this increase occurred over the last changes. Weather phenomena, including fluctuations 50 years, as highlighted in reports by FEWS NET of temperature, precipitation, humidity, cloud cover, (Funk and others 2010). In addition, warming of the atmospheric pressure, and wind speed, have become near surface temperature and an increase in the increasingly unpredictable across the Horn of Africa in frequency of extreme warm events was observed recent decades. Noteworthy shifts in rainfall patterns between 1961 and 2008 in countries bordering the and increases in air and sea surface temperatures western Indian Ocean (Vincent and others 2011). have also been observed. Historical trends suggest that climate conditions in the region are becoming 4.2.3 Projected Climate Patterns drier, more erratic, and more extreme—and thus less All global and regional climate model projections favorable to crop and livestock production, fisheries, point to a warmer future. One scenario predicts and other livelihood systems. warming of surface temperatures by as much as 4°C by the end of the century (IPCC 2007). Sea surface Tierney, Ummenhofer, and deMenocal (2015) and temperatures in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere are others highlight an overall drying in the region. expected to increase in coming decades along with Other studies find that lower rainfall in eastern Africa increased acidification. during the critical March, April, and May “long rains” season in recent decades is linked to a warming of There is far less certainty about rainfall. In contrast the Indian Ocean (Funk and others 2008; Williams to the drying that occurred in the 20th and early and Funk 2011; Lyon and DeWitt 2012).35 Increasing 21st centuries, most global climate models predict ocean temperatures are already taking a toll on that the Horn of Africa will become wetter ocean circulation, chemistry, and marine life. A 2016 as global temperatures rise (Christensen and study highlights a decline of up to 20 percent in others 2007; Shongwe and others 2011; Williams the number of marine phytoplankton in the Indian and others 2012). The 2007 assessment by the Ocean over the past six decades (Roxy 2016). In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes addition, ongoing ocean acidification threatens the that 18 of 21 models predict increased rainfall in the region’s coral reefs and entire groups of shellfish and Horn of Africa.37 Climate predictions for Somaliland zooplankton and thus the broader food chain and and Puntland, based on IPCC AR4 projections, project marine ecosystem.36 Other studies point to declining increases in mean annual precipitation of 15–20 summer (June–September) monsoonal precipitation percent (Petersen and Gadain 2012). Whether rainfall throughout much of the Horn of Africa (Williams increases or decreases, seasonal variability and the and others 2012) and growing frequency of extreme frequency of extreme rainfall events (droughts and 42 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 4. Environmental Constraints and Challenges floods) are expected to increase (Kay and Washington Climate change impacts also have strong potential 2008; FGS 2013a; UNDP and ICPAC 2013), with far- to cause massive damage to human and animal reaching implications for Somalia’s agriculture and health, water availability, terrestrial biodiversity, economic growth potential. forests, and coastal and marine resources. For crop production, increased temperatures will likely For Somalia, as for other developing countries, favor increased evapotranspiration. More variable climate change represents a major obstacle to and extreme rainfall will reduce spatial infiltration achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and facilitate runoff and erosion, resulting in less and reducing poverty and hunger. By jeopardizing groundwater recharge and less water availability agricultural production, it poses a severe and direct in the surface layers for plant growth. Other likely threat to national food security. By amplifying impacts include reduction of vegetation for grazing environmental stressors, it threatens the long-term and more variable water availability, with grave viability of the fragile ecosystems on which the sector impacts on livestock herding and related livelihoods, and the majority of Somali livelihoods depend. in particular. Rising sea temperatures and acidification could substantially reduce fish stock numbers and distribution, upending the Somali fishing industry. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 43 Chapter 5 THE LIVESTOCK SUBSECTOR Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 45 5. The Livestock Subsector Key Findings • Livestock remains the traditional repository of household wealth in Somalia. It provides about three-quarters of total exports by value and is an important source of livelihood for a large part of the country’s population. • In addition to the main production systems of nomadic pastoralism and agro-pastoralism, large livestock- rearing operations with dairy animals (mostly camels) have been on the rise in settled mixed farming in urban and peri-urban areas. They market only fresh milk, however, with no or minimal processing. • The predominant feed production systems rely mostly on natural pastures on the country’s vast rangelands, with little or no external inputs provided, and on stalks that make straw of low nutritional value. Demand is high and growing for good-quality fodder along trading routes, in market centers, and at terminal ports. Hay production from native grasses is very limited, and storage practices are so poor that its nutritive value very quickly drops to that of straw. At peak demand periods, maize, sorghum, other fresh crops, and even emergency relief food for human consumption are also sold as livestock feed. • While well adapted to the harsh geographical and climatic environment, Somali livestock is characterized by low weights and milk yields, mainly because larger and heavier animals are selected for slaughter or live export rather than breeding. In the absence of government animal health programs and institutions, the private sector and local veterinary associations funded by development partners have provided many critical services. Such efforts remain insufficient to address the serious risk of animal diseases and consequent import bans (the latest imposed by Saudi Arabia at the end of 2016 and only temporarily suspended during July– September 2017). • Despite the challenges, the sector has shown remarkable resilience. Following a sharp decline immediately after the start of the civil war, the stock of animals (estimated at 53 million in 2014) is well past the peak level registered in the late 1980s (about 40 million). As of 2016, Somalia had more camels (7.1 million) than any country in the world. • Substantial investment in quality improvements supported an impressive growth in livestock exports, with both volumes and values (peaking at $533 million in 2015) considerably higher than before the civil war. Since the war, Somalia has also developed exports for breeding. • Milk production, especially from camels, has risen steadily since the late 1980s, reaching a gross market value estimated at about $3.3 billion in 2014, before the recent drought. Somalia nonetheless still imports dairy products while exporting none. Constraints that have kept the dairy sector from reaching its potential include the same ones that affect the welfare and health of live animals, as well as poor or no enforcement of low and outdated prewar hygiene standards, lack of processes to preserve milk quality, inefficient marketing channels fraught with excessive intermediaries, the poor state of transport infrastructure, rapid spoilage from high temperatures and humidity, and the absence of economies of scale. • Production of fresh red meat has also been on the rise, to meet rising domestic demand, but it remains well below potential. Commercial meat processing is limited to very small quantities of chilled goat and beef meat for export. Growth has been hampered by the constraints listed above and mismanagement. • Production of hides and skins was comparable in the early 2010s to levels of the late 1980s, at about 7 million pieces a year. Processing is minimal (sun-drying), however, and well below prewar levels. Hides and skins are of poor quality, and improper preservation and storage often leaves them damaged by vermin. Domestic leather production is miniscule. • All livestock products suffered severely from the most recent drought, with early 2017 milk yields cut by more than half for camels and up to two-thirds for cows and goats. • Poultry keeping is widespread among poor households, for both self-consumption and resale, and imports of day-old chicks and sometimes eggs for local hatcheries is increasing. Commercial poultry farming is on the rise, particularly in urban areas, almost exclusively to supply eggs to nearby towns, as there is stiff competition in chicken meat from Brazilian frozen imports. Expansion is constrained by shortages and the costs of inputs, including poultry feed and feed concentrates. 46 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector 5.1 The Livestock Economy decades. They include water shortages; lack of availability of and access to good pasture; invasion Livestock is the main repository of household and of unpalatable plant species (for example, Prosopis national wealth in Somalia, and the export-oriented juliflora [mesquite], Parthenium hysterophorus, and pastoralist production system provides an important spiny cacti); deforestation and other forms of land source of livelihood and resilience. Many areas in degradation; and natural shocks, such as drought Somalia offer few livelihoods other than pastoral and floods. Other persistent constraints include livestock production and marketing. transboundary animal diseases, with occasional flare-ups of epidemics, and fluctuating market prices Livestock provides a source of income, and home for livestock and livestock products. consumption of meat and other animal products represents an important source of food security. Despite very little, if any, government involvement Pastoral communities get many of their calories from since the civil war began, the sector has shown milk and meat consumption, which complement remarkable resilience, resulting in high offtake cereal and noncereal foodstuffs, which are often rates and impressive growth in exports in recent financed by income from animal and milk sales. years. In the early 2000s, the FAO estimated offtake Livestock also plays an important role in Somali percentages at 27.3 percent for sheep, 23.3 percent culture, with animals exchanged to consolidate social for goats, 11.3 percent for cattle, and 1.6 percent for ties and reciprocal relationships.38 camels (FAO 2004).40 A significant number of animals are marketed domestically, generating employment About 26 percent of the population is classified as for the local population, especially women, who often nomads, according to the most recent population sell domestic meat and produce animal byproducts, estimates (UNFPA 2014). Many others living in both including milk, soaps, and jewelry from bones.41 rural and urban areas derive major parts of their Figure 5.1 illustrates the domestic marketing routes. livelihoods from the livestock subsector, bringing the total number of people benefiting directly from the Much livestock production and trade is guided by sector to 65 percent. 39 traditional institutions and practices, including kinship and ethnic groupings, identity, and religious In 2011–14, the livestock subsector accounted for practices, which serve as alternatives to formal about 75 percent of total exports. The figure has contracting (Carr and Landa 1983). In recent years, fluctuated, interrupted by droughts and international however, substantial diaspora investment, limited export bans, in the last three decades. external donor support, and foreign investment by Saudi-controlled companies have supported both Many traditional constraints associated with safety and quality improvements and expansion of livestock production have intensified in recent livestock exports. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 47 5. The Livestock Subsector Figure 5.1: Migration and Seasonal Pattern of Livestock Movement in Somalia Source: FSNAU (http://www.google.it/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwi4zrfhrt_QAhVIXhQKHXDfCZUQFg- goMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fsnau.org%2Fdownloads%2FLivestock%2520Seasonal%2520Migration.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGR_f_3LRwMU3HSje7fYTScGGW62A). 48 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector 5.2 Livestock Production Systems small ruminants. Splitting herds is a common strategy used to optimize the use of scarce resources. Both Several types of livestock production and pastoralist households and traders use a grading management systems are found in Somalia, system to increase their incomes by increasing their determined by factors such as the natural resource animals’ weight. Efforts include finishing animals endowment, the availability of labor and pasture, before sale and buying poor-grade and low-cost and the sizes and types of livestock raised. The animals, which are then finished for sale at higher three main production systems are nomadic and prices.42 Animals are often finished by grazing transhumant pastoralism, agro-pastoralism, and in communal land during the wet season, when urban and peri-urban rearing systems. pastures are more nutritious, and/or through the use of purchased feeds (usually imported concentrates). Nomadic pastoralism, the predominant production system in Somalia, is characterized by little or Agro-pastoralism is becoming increasingly common no agriculture and high mobility of people and in all parts of the country, even in drier regions, animals in search of grazing and water. Transhumant as many households find it increasingly difficult to pastoralism is based on more or less regular rely only on livestock for their livelihoods. Agro- seasonal migrations from a permanent homestead or pastoralists combine livestock production and grazing settlement. Nomadic and transhumant pastoralists are with dryland or rainfed cropping and the feeding found throughout Somalia; the highest concentrations of animals with crop residues. Most agro-pastoral are in the northern rangelands of Somaliland and households produce sorghum, maize, and beans. Puntland and in the central rangelands. Subtypes of agro-pastoralism range from farmers Pastoralism is an economic and social system that is who own large herds and keep some of their well adapted to dry land conditions. It can generate animals on the farm and some on the rangelands significant returns from areas with low rainfall to small-scale-farmers who own only a few animals. and scanty resources. Pastoralism is characterized Split herding based on a division of labor is common. by a complex set of practices and knowledge that In this practice, part of the family (mostly the men historically permitted the maintenance of a sustainable and boys) moves with most of the herd while other equilibrium among pastures, livestock, and people. family members remain on the farm to cultivate crops. Lactating or heavily pregnant or sick animals A variety of factors made it increasingly difficult are also usually left behind on the farm. to maintain a sustainable equilibrium in Somalia during the past decades. They include a changing In agro-pastoral areas, nutrient cycling through the political landscape and land use systems that fostered integration of a crop-livestock system and the use of sedentary agriculture and urban human settlements, crop residues and byproducts as animal feeds and territorial disputes, local communal conflicts, severe animal manure as crop fertilizer are common. Use environmental degradation, and increasing climate- of draught power is still limited. related shocks, including recurrent, more frequent, and longer-lasting droughts. Agro-pastoralism is most common along the Juba and Shabelle river valleys in southern farming Pastoral households in Somalia generally maintain regions characterized by higher land productivity a distinct division of labor among family members, and higher rainfall. The main systems are found in in which young men herd camels while women, both the low-potential livelihood zone and the high- children, and the elderly take care of cattle and potential “sorghum basket” of the Bay and Bakool Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 49 5. The Livestock Subsector regions, where sorghum, maize, cowpea, sesame, which are covered by grass, herbs, shrubs, and and groundnut production is combined with livestock sparse trees; palatable fresh crop residues for keeping, mostly of cattle. In the coastal cowpea belt fodder; and high mobility by both pastoralists zone, shifting cultivation agriculture is also usually and agro-pastoralists in search of forage. This combined with livestock keeping, mainly of camel system is characterized by low levels of inputs and and goats. production.45 Increasing loss of traditional grazing lands to environmental degradation and enclosure Agro-pastoralism is also practiced in selected of rangeland, overgrazing by increased number of areas of the north, where water is sourced from livestock, and the lack of law enforcement have led to harvesting rain water, natural springs, oasis, and lower resilience to shocks, intensified conflicts, and nonsalty shallow wells.43 The northwestern part of growing demand for commercially produced fodder. Somaliland receives relatively high rainfall, allowing for some sorghum, maize, millet, and cowpea Demand for feed along trading routes, in market production, combined with transhumance livestock centers, and at terminal ports is high and rising, as keeping. In Puntland, agro-pastoralism is practiced the trend for keeping animals, especially camels, on a more limited scale in irrigated farming areas; in confined grounds near major cities is growing. livestock kept include camels, goats, and sheep. Demand for fodder is largely seasonal, because Forage conditions in these areas are generally good, it is closely linked to the celebration of the main with springs and shallow wells the main source of Islamic celebrations, when exports soar. Prices of water for animals. fodder are highest during the dry season, when pasture is scarce and fodder production generally In addition to pastoralism and agro-pastoralism, low. Price information on fodder is not collected in livestock rearing systems have emerged in settled a coordinated manner, but local assessments report mixed farming in urban and peri-urban areas. average prices for a bale of fodder (20 kilograms of Animals graze in areas containing natural pasture natural grass) of about $3. A truckload of 90 bales and browse trees and shrubs for most of the year of fodder sells for about $100–$350, depending on and/or are partially confined in stalls, where they are the season (the figure if higher during droughts). fed conserved fodder and concentrate supplements. The seasonality of demand for fodder underlines Water supply is also available on-site. Some farms the need to invest in postharvest processing and have integrated dairy camels and cattle. Some adequate storage. In general, most fodder is still sold farmers have imported mating bulls of superior in unprocessed form, though postharvest fodder is exotic breeds, such as Friesian, including from usually collected in 20-kilogram bales or boxes and Ethiopia. Their farms target the emerging local fresh transported in trucks. Efficiencies could be gained by milk consumer markets in the main urban areas of using box baling rather than bundling. Somaliland (Hargeisa, Berbera, and Burao); Puntland (Bosaso, Garowe, and Galkayo); and Southern Fodder production from all sources—including Somalia (Mogadishu and Kismayo).44 grasses, shrubs, and the leaves and fruits of wild trees (including the invasive Prosopis juliflora tree 5.3 Livestock Feed Resources and many imported varieties)—can and should be a very important part of the agriculture system The predominant feed production system relies on in Somalia. It remains very underdeveloped, with the natural pastures on Somalia’s vast rangelands, technical know-how either absent or very limited.46 50 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector The most commonly used and traded fodder is crop and Garowe in Puntland, some livestock farmers residues, mainly stalks, which produce straw of low are growing fodder under irrigation using borehole nutritional value. At peak demand periods, when water.47 Private companies have yet to venture prices are highest, various fresh crops, including into large-scale fodder commercialization, possibly maize and sorghum, are also sometimes sold as because of limited know-how and poorly developed livestock feed. Super Cereal, which the World Food marketing channels. Programme distributes as relief food aid, is sometimes resold as fodder in Somalia. This low-quality but 5.4 National and Regional Livestock inexpensive product stifles incentives to develop the Policies domestic fodder market. Hay production is limited to a few new commercial farms whose storage facilities The Siad Barre government nationalized and and practices are so poor that the nutritive value of monopolized the export trade of hides and skins stored hay very quickly drops to that of straw. In the 1970s. It continued to control it until the late 1980s, when the World Bank and IMF got it to Native grasses grow and are harvested mostly after liberalize the subsector in exchange for badly needed water recedes in plains and valleys that are irrigated external financial assistance. by natural floods overflowing from permanent or dry rivers or deliberately directed into the grass The government imposed a puzzling array of growing areas through feeder canals. These areas restrictive regulations on private exports of livestock. are found in Beer village south of Burao, in Borama The most taxing were strict foreign exchange controls in Somaliland; Gardo and Garowe in Puntland; and in the 1980s, which required all private exporters, along the Shabelle and Juba rivers in Belet Wayne including exporters of livestock, to exchange at least and Dollow in Southern Somalia. Community- half their foreign exchange earnings at the overvalued based fodder production also takes place on open official foreign exchange rate, which in 1988 was less rangelands on which designated areas are assigned than half the market rate. This requirement benefited for grass regeneration. the rich political patrons who consumed imports and undermined Somalia’s export industry. State control Parts of the flooded dry river valleys in Somaliland of industries also created inefficiencies, described and Puntland, where native grasses grow elsewhere in this chapter. naturally, are protected from grazing by thornbush enclosures with restricted grazing, governed by After the collapse of the Somali state, in 1991, local customary structures. In some areas, such as the capacities of government institutions in the the Togdheer region, cooperatives have been set up northern regions (and recently of the federal and that produce and market fodder in enclosed areas. state governments formed in Southern Somalia) An increasing number of pastoralist families are remained limited, particularly in regulatory services constructing their own private enclosures, within and in transforming export market opportunities which they grow fodder, often in combination with into higher incomes and broader development small-scale crop production. outcomes. To fill the gap left by government, the private sector (including individuals and civil society In addition to native grass species, some improved organizations) has grown substantively to facilitate imported varieties have recently been grown under trade, by providing animal transport and health irrigation, particularly along the riverine areas of services and holding infrastructures. the Lower Shabelle. In peri-urban areas of Bosaso Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 51 5. The Livestock Subsector The main and most recent policy framework • improvement of animal health service delivery for this subsector is the livestock chapter of the and diagnostic services to protect the state’s herd National Development Plan 2017–19. Its main aim • improvement of veterinary public health is to support a vibrant and commercially competitive services to protect and safeguard consumers, livestock subsector that contributes to sustainable locally and internationally livelihoods, inclusive economic growth, and the • maximization and commercialization of animal delivery of essential services. To achieve its objective, production where possible, to meet the cash the plan set out four operational goals for the income needs of producers and national livestock subsector: nutritional requirements • strengthening institutional capacity and public • fostering of trade in livestock and livestock infrastructure products • increasing animal health services and the • promotion of research, continuous professional productivity of small and large producers development, and strengthening of institutional • enhancing trade in livestock and livestock capacity (public and private) for service delivery. products • improving national food security, nutrition, and 5.5 Environmental Degradation and the Spread of Private Enclosures food safety within the livestock subsector.48 Most pastoral and agro-pastoral livestock production The federal Ministry of Livestock, Forestry, and in Somalia takes place on open rangelands in the Rangeland prepared a draft Livestock Policy northern and central regions and in the areas along the (2015–20), with input from Puntland and the other Ethiopian and Kenyan border in the southern regions. recently created states in Southern Somalia. It is Production involves little or no external inputs.49 currently undergoing a consultation process and is expected to be finalized and approved in 2018 by Before the collapse of the Somali state, a national the newly elected members of parliament. The rangeland agency was responsible for managing document spells out public and private sector rangelands. In consultation with pastoral communities, core functions and addresses issues related to it designated dry and wet season grazing areas. livestock disease and trade, land degradation and range management, institutional framework and In low rainfall areas (below 400 millimeters), coordination, and infrastructure for animal health rangelands are dominated by annual grasses and and marketing. To maintain production levels, it also herbs, which “bloom” after rains and provide reaffirms the longstanding prohibition on the export critical wet-season grazing for livestock. As rainfall of female animals. is unevenly distributed spatially and temporally, pastoralists move to make optimal use of the range, In 2006, Somaliland adopted a National Livestock which can be very productive until the grasses and Policy (2006–16). It recognizes the involvement and herbs set seed and die. At that point, herds move to comparative advantage of the various sector actors dry-season grazing areas, where perennial grasses and spells out the roles and responsibilities for public grow in areas that get more than 400 millimeters institutions, the private sector, pastoral associations, of rain a year, most of them open wood and bush research institutions, and development partners. lands. Allowing grasses and herbs to set seed and not This still-current policy emphasizes the following: overgrazing them beyond their regenerative ability are critical to the sustainability of such ecosystems. 52 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector High mobility on wet- and dry-season grazing areas, natural resources have become and are expected including communal drought-time grazing reserves, to become more frequent. A 2016 study in three has always been part of the traditional and once pastoral districts of Gedo region (Dollow, Luuq, well-respected natural resource management and Belet Hawa) documents the rise in communal communities right to graze in their traditional areas of conflicts, including livestock thefts and violent influence, but pastures on the rangelands were never clashes between clans, as a result of intensified privately owned, and in the case of a localized drought competition over the use of shared resources, such emergency, livestock were customarily allowed to as water, pasture lands, and humanitarian aid (FAO move to better pastures, even if other communities 2016a). Particularly in the northern and central areas, controlled them. Such customary courtesies, pastoral mobility is now practiced on increasingly reciprocated by communities living in different areas, degraded rangelands that are extremely sensitive were an important coping mechanism for livestock to drought. Permanent grasses on once-safe dry to survive even extended but localized periods of season grazing areas are often replaced by seasonal drought; only on rare occasions did such movements (annual) grasses also affected by seasonal droughts. Various assessments by the Somalia Water and Land result in community warfare. Information Management (SWALIM) in recent years have found widespread land degradation across the A survey conducted three decades ago found that country, especially near water holes and wells. The as much as half of Somalia’s northern rangelands result is major losses of vegetation (composition and were seriously degraded, as a result of the steep cover) and topsoil, increased water source scarcity, topography and the large number of livestock and declines in soil moisture. (almost 50 million head), especially near ports (World Bank 1987). Since then, rangeland The rapidly growing number of nomadic governance, either traditional or formal, has broken communities (usually large extended families) down and become scattered, with different ethnic- that build their own private enclosures, often on based groups taking responsibility for managing large tracts of land close to urban centers, has rangelands under their control. This failure of undermined the historical resilience of Somali governance to guide arrangements for access to water pastoralist systems in recent years. Large tracks of sources, grazing areas, and trees on the rangelands; productive, once-open grazing areas, especially in persistent insecurity in the southern regions; and fertile depressions that benefit from floods and slowly intensifying stress on rural livelihoods from climate receding water to regenerate grasses and shrubs, change have led to uncontrolled exploitation of these have been and continue to be fenced for rainfed natural resources (see chapter 4 for analysis of the crop or fodder production during the wet season impact of charcoal exports and climate change). They and for semipermanent living settlements. In these have also allowed or fostered further changes in land new settlements some family members are assigned use patterns, with significant negative impacts. These to guard their enclosures and to forbid livestock changes include the spread of private enclosures, of families, communities, and clans from grazing the expansion of cultivated areas into rangelands, on them in the dry seasons or at times of drought and overgrazing even in areas that were previously emergencies. This practice has significantly reduced avoided, either because they were contested or the available communal grazing areas and hampered because they were held in reserve for dry-season and the movement of livestock along the traditional drought grazing. routes used by pastoralists searching for potential pastures in other areas. The issue has become As a consequence, the health of Somalia’s rangelands increasingly contentious, especially in Somaliland, and the traditional high mobility of its pastoralists where the authorities and elders describe it as a new have dramatically deteriorated, and conflicts over and very serious source of conflict and insecurity. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 53 5. The Livestock Subsector 5.6 Animal Health and Services funding from development partners. These services include mass vaccination campaigns, training, and Animal diseases are common in Somalia. The institutional capacity development. most significant are transboundary in nature. They include Peste des Petits Ruminants;50 contagious Six livestock professional associations are delivering caprine pleuropneumonia; contagious bovine animal health services. They deliver vaccinations, pleuropneumonia, which occurs mostly in the southern treatments, and disease investigation and disease areas; foot and mouth disease; sheep and goat pox; detection, generally with external funding. They also and lumpy skin disease. Other commonly found manage agro-vet stores and train community-based diseases include anthrax, blackleg, brucellosis, fowl pox, animal health workers on diagnosing and treating hemorrhagic septicemia, camel pox, trypanosomiasis, livestock diseases, administering veterinary drugs, salmonellosis, and New Castle Disease. and performing basic surgical procedures. Climate variability has had a negative impact on In recent years, international development agencies livestock and human health, by increasing the and foreign private investors have made substantial incidence of vector-borne diseases and spreading investments to improve animal health and welfare them into cooler areas at higher altitude (Thornton and meet the requirements of importing countries. and others 2007). Because of the large number Through Somalia’s livestock professional associations, of livestock in common grazing areas, at watering the FAO has carried out mass vaccination campaigns, points, in markets, and along trading routes, the covering more than 62 million shoats between 2012 likelihood of disease transmission remains high. and 2017 (table 5.1).52 Other development partners have also conducted vaccination campaigns and Somalia had a veterinary code before the war. treated animals, on a smaller scale. The federal parliament enacted an updated code in 2016.51 Somaliland adopted a revised national The private sector has also built several quarantine veterinary code in 2008. Both codes include advances stations, with two main areas (one for keeping in veterinary legislation and reflect the guidelines healthy animals ready for export, the other for of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). hosting animals suspected of being infected with Several other acts and regulations related to livestock disease). One in Berbera, in Somaliland, can hold up product quality, sanitary measures, and control to 2 million animals. Another, in Bosaso, in Puntland, exist or are under development. There is still need can hold more than 1.5 million head of livestock. Both for harmonization of policies, strategies, policies, were constructed by a Saudi company (SEIVQMC). legislation, and regulations to adhere more fully to A new, locally owned private quarantine facility was OIE standards and to ensure more coherence with also established in Jazeera (near Mogadishu) in 2011, neighboring countries’ policies and frameworks. with a holding capacity of 250,000 animals. Like the facilities in the northern ports, the Jazeera holding The presence of transboundary animal diseases, ground is equipped with a laboratory to perform the absence or weakness of veterinary services, blood tests, including tests for brucellosis (also known and the constant mobility of animals within the as undulant fever), a highly contagious disease. At region increase the risk of disease transmission and these quarantine stations, animals are tested for subsequent export bans by importing countries. specific diseases before certification, based on the In the absence of a strong public sector to take the requirements of the importing countries. Each station lead in protecting animal health, the private sector has a government veterinarian who issues health is providing many services, often but not always with certificates that meet importing country requirements. 54 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector Table 5.1: Number of Sheep and Goats in Somalia Vaccinated for Main Animal Diseases in 2012–17 Number of shoats Number of Year/Disease treated households reached 2012 Veterinary treatments 2,570,426 125,462 Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia 7,476,391 251,572 Peste des petits ruminants 19,666,847 422,804 2013 Vector control 880,327 22,635 Peste des petits ruminants and sheep and goat pox 11,814,414 253,964 2014 Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia 11,860,193 296,505 Peste des petits ruminants and sheep and goat pox 11,873,321 296,833 2015 Peste des petits ruminants and sheep and goat pox 13,821,212 345,530 2016 Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia 14,006,923 350,173 2017 Veterinary treatments 21,289,330 532,233 Peste des petits ruminants and sheep and goat pox 14,362,091 359,052 Source: FAO and FGS. Animals are also inspected in some regional campaigns are driven by and paid for by donors, markets, such as in Galkayo (Puntland), before meaning vaccinations take place only when funds healthy animals are trucked to the quarantine are available. Moreover, vaccinations target only stations near export ports. The combination of a transboundary animal diseases; vaccines for other livestock certification system and quarantine stations important diseases, such as anthrax, are not even at the tail end of the market chain has dramatically available in Somalia. There have also been challenges enhanced the confidence of importers in the safety related to the timing of the administration of and quality of livestock from Somalia. It led to vaccines, especially live vaccines (such as the vaccine the lifting of the old livestock import ban and the for Rift Valley Fever, the disease linked to the 2000– temporary lifting in July–September 2017 of the 09 export ban to Saudi Arabia), for which it is difficult latest import ban (introduced in December 2016) by to distinguish between a recently vaccinated and an the Saudi government, and to reductions in livestock infected animal (see endnote 57 for more on Saudi handling time and overall marketing costs (Khadijah Arabia’s export bans from Somalia). The unregulated and Kabue 2012; Godiah and others 2015).53 nature of the animal health care system in Somalia makes it difficult to regulate vaccinations (by, for Significant room remains for improvements in example ensuring that animals are not vaccinated too ensuring and certifying animal health to avoid close to the point of export) and to inform receiving costly, though temporary, disruptions to established countries of the vaccination campaigns and the fact export channels and destinations. All vaccination that tests might show false positive results. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 55 5. The Livestock Subsector The lack of good-quality veterinary drugs is another animal health and veterinary science, but the quality challenge. The bulk of veterinary drug trade is and quantity of graduates falls far short of the needs undertaken and controlled by businessmen or traders of the country’s largest economic and export sector. rather than agro-vet stores or veterinarians. Despite adoption of the Somali Veterinary Code, there still 5.7 The Decline in the Livestock Population is no licensing procedure for veterinary drugs—and in any case enforcement of this procedure would Until the late 1980s, the government conducted be challenging. Large-scale dumping of expired, reliable surveys of the livestock population, which substandard, and counterfeit drugs is common. was estimated at about 40 million (FGS 1989; Most livestock owners, community-based animal FAOSTAT) (figure 5.2). Since then, animal population health workers, and veterinary drug traders are not estimates have been based largely on projections fully literate and often purchase drugs based only and extrapolations by external agencies with very on price. Many livestock owners buy drugs from limited current information or access to many parts traders who offer the lowest price, rather than of the country. One estimate suggested a livestock from veterinarians, community-based animal health population of 39 million in 1998 (FAO, World Bank, workers, or agro-vet stores. Decades of donor-funded and EU 2004). veterinary projects, including the distribution of free veterinary drugs, has also eroded the willingness to The most recent and reliable figures are the ones pay for good-quality drugs, making the development estimated by the FSNAU in October 2017 and agreed of a veterinary drug supply system challenging. to as predrought baseline figures by the FGS and its international partners for the Drought Impact Needs Many veterinary workers across Somalia are aging, Assessment (FGS 2017a). It estimates the country’s and few new ones have been trained in the last livestock at 52.9 million head, including 28.7 million decades. Because of this lack of capacity, many goats, 13.6 million sheep, 6.6 million camels, and 3.9 livestock-exporting companies use veterinarians from million head of cattle (see table 5.2 for the regional outside Somalia. The Intergovernmental Authority breakdown).54 The FSNAU figures for shoats are on Development sponsors regional vocational much larger and the figures for camels and cattle institutions in Somaliland, and a few private somewhat smaller than previous estimates by other universities in Somalia offer training programs in sources. Their regional distribution is also different. Figure 5.2: Livestock Population in Somalia (including Somaliland), 1961–2014 25.0 20.0 15.0 Millions of head 10.0 5.0 0.0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Cattle Goats Sheep Camel Source: FAOSTAT. 56 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector However, the FSNAU estimate cannot be compared are concentrated in the southern regions, particularly with the 2004 estimate by the FAO, World Bank, and in the Juba River valley. Large numbers of sheep are European Union because different methodologies found in the northern and central regions. Goats were used. All sources nonetheless document a sharp are found predominantly in the northern regions, decline in the 1990s, largely because of the civil war, especially in Puntland, and in the southern regions. followed by a solid recovery interrupted only by a sharp decrease in shoats in 2007–08. The most recent livestock figures estimated independently by the Somaliland government and Even after mortality from the recent drought, including the northcentral regions (whose control Somalia has the world’s largest camel population, is in dispute with Puntland) are roughly consistent with more than twice the camel population of with the regional FSNAU estimates shown in Kenya and Ethiopia combined in the early 2010s table 5.2. They show a steady increase in all types (Mahmoud 2013). Camels are found in all agro- of livestock since 1998. Almost 90 percent of all climatic zones of the country (see table 5.2). Cattle livestock are shoats (table 5.3). Table 5.2: Livestock Population in Somalia by Region, 2014 (before Drought) Region Goats Sheep Camel Cattle Total Juba River valley 3,036,320 1,636,204 1,258,271 1,477,458 7,408,254 Juba Hoose (Lower) 732,224 492,673 322,042 620,654 2,167,593 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 478,247 393,329 165,335 520,175 1,557,086 Gedo 1,825,849 750,202 770,894 336,629 3,683,575 Inter-riverine regions 2,630,485 525,837 979,467 1,170,565 5,306,354 Bay 1,171,477 117,007 361,562 800,964 2,451,010 Bakool 1,459,008 408,830 617,905 369,601 2,855,344 Shabelle River valley 4,076,419 1,666,869 1,081,843 1,068,031 7,893,163 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 981,022 464,193 286,770 535,447 2,267,433 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 1,099,778 521,759 156,138 185,540 1,963,214 Hiraan 1,995,619 680,917 638,935 347,044 3,662,516 Northeastern region 7,544,817 3,695,449 1,363,688 47,048 12,651,001 Galguduud 2,031,000 850,953 461,495 33,978 3,377,426 Mudug 2,057,841 881,057 437,672 13,070 3,389,640 Nugaal 1,959,593 1,217,801 377,872 0 3,555,266 Bari 1,496,383 745,638 86,649 0 2,328,669 Northcentral region 4,384,489 3,312,691 470,202 0 8.167,383 Sool 1,541,657 1,267,790 236,260 0 3,045,707 Sanaag 2,842,832 2,044,901 233,942 0 5,121,676 Northwestern region 7,030,849 2,810,858 1,458,364 167,281 11,457,352 Togdheer 1,952,918 582,689 496,815 5,018 3,037,441 Woqooyi Galbeed 2,745,465 1,139,224 564,659 96,567 4,545,914 Awdal 2,332,466 1,088,945 396,890 65,696 3,883,997 All regions 28,703,379 13,647,910 6,611,835 3,930,383 52,893,507 Source: FSNAU estimates for the Drought Impact Needs Assessment (FGS 2017a). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 57 5. The Livestock Subsector Table 5.3: Number of Livestock in Somaliland, by Type, 1998–2009 Year Goats Sheep Camel Cattle Total 1998 6,072,250 6,909,123 1,443,625 340,950 14,765,948 1999 6,367,169 7,146,030 1,475,560 348,493 15,337,252 2000 6,519,981 7,267,513 1,491,791 352,326 15,631,611 2001 6,676,460 7,391,060 1,508,200 356,202 15,931,922 2002 6,836,695 7,516,708 1,524,791 360,110 16,238,304 2005 7,341,000 7,906,000 1,578,000 373,000 17,198,000 2006 7,517,000 8,041,000 1,596,000 378,000 17,532,000 2007 7,698,000 8,178,000 1,614,000, 384,000 17,873,000 2008 7,883,000 8,317,000 1,630,000 389,000 18,219,000 2009 8,072,000 8,458,000 1,646,000 394,000 18,570,000 Source: Somaliland National Development Plan 2012–16, Ministry of National Planning, Republic of Somaliland. Note: Figures are not available for 2003 or 2004. Herd sizes and composition vary across livestock in herd composition. In the 1980s, for example, production systems and hence regions. Average many pastoralists shifted the composition of their herd sizes are large to very large in the nomadic herds away from camels toward cattle, in response pastoral system and medium size in the mainly to export demands (Al-Najim 1991), particularly in transhumant agro-pastoral system. In contrast, the southern areas, which export mainly to Kenya. mixed crop/livestock farming households may have Reflecting a rise in camel prices and increased export only a few animals. Different species are generally opportunities, including to Egypt, since the 2000s, a held together, to make the most efficient use of range shift in herd composition has been observed back to vegetation, because camels and goats are primarily camels (Mahmoud 2013). In recent decades, there browsers while cattle and sheep are largely grazers. has been a shift toward hardy browsers (camels Combining different types of livestock also provides and goats)—a savvy risk-mitigation strategy in view pastoral groups with a wide array of animal products. of increasing and recurrent pasture shortages. Few Herd diversification is an important risk management poor households can afford to purchase even a single strategy for protecting against diseases, drought, and camel, however. lack of drinking water or forage (Dahl 1981). Somalia’s livestock population has stabilized Animal ownership, ownership of other productive genetically. Animals are well adapted to the harsh assets, and income-generating activities differ across geographical and climatic environment, but their wealth groups. Many better-off households are weight and milk yield are low. The traditional breeding involved in small-scale trading and fodder production system, in which the best animals were exchanged and receive remittances. Most of the animals owned for breeding purposes, has been negatively affected by households in all wealth categories, especially by the move toward more commercial production pastoral households in the central and northern systems, in which animals with larger frames, and regions, are shoats; they are more prevalent among therefore heavier body weights, are selected for poor households.55 In some (agro-pastoral) areas in southern Somalia, cattle are of primary importance. sale for slaughter or live export, because they attract better prices. Genetic improvement, an area Pastoralists respond and adjust to new market devoid of any public and private investments in the demands and opportunities as well as to evolving past three decades, would have a positive effect on environmental conditions, as evident from changes livestock trade. 58 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector 5.8 Trade in Live Animals Bosaso originated in Ethiopia. A 2011 study by Oxfam estimated that 50–65 percent of livestock exported 5.8.1 Main Livestock Trading Routes from the Berbera port originated in the Somali- Animal marketing—for domestic meat inhabited region of Ethiopia.56 In the three months of consumption, exports, or reexports—is mainly a October–December 2011, 355,151 head of livestock private sector affair (box 5.1). Cattle sales dominate were reported to have been traded across monitored many of markets in the Horn of Africa, particularly borders in the Horn of Africa; 62 percent were cattle the southern Somalia–Garissa route and the Moyale (Eid 2014). market on the border of Kenya and Ethiopia. Before the collapse of the Somali state, a common cross- Most of the livestock exported through Berbera border trading route included livestock movement and Bosaso ports transit through Burao and Galkayo, from Ethiopia and northern Kenya into Somalia for two of the largest livestock markets in the Horn of exporting through the port of Mogadishu. Collapse Africa, especially for transshipment of shoats from of the state caused a reversal in the direction of the Ogaden region of Ethiopia, the Sool plateau in livestock trade, leading to an increased outflow of northcentral Somalia, the Nugaal valley and the Adun livestock, particularly camels and cattle, from Somalia area in the northeastern and central Somalia, and to Kenyan and Ethiopian markets (Mahmoud 2013). parts of southern Somalia (figure 5.3). Beletweyn In contrast, small stock dominates northern trading is the main connection hub between the southern routes through Somaliland and Puntland to the Gulf regions and the main markets. Most cattle raised in the countries (Mahmoud 2013). southern agro-pastoral livelihood zones and trekked to Garissa, Kenya, transit through Dinsor, Bardera, Many of the animals shipped through the northern and Afmadow (Afmadow is the largest cattle market ports still originate in Ethiopia, particularly its in Somalia). Because of the wide catchment area and Somali-inhabited Ogaden region, as they did the large distances to be covered, most animals are before the civil war. Cross-border livestock trade trucked from the minor and major inland markets is largely unofficial and unrecorded, and figures on and the main urban markets and Somali ports. At cross-border trade are largely unavailable. However, both the export ports and the holding grounds where estimates from the 1990s indicated that up to 80 animals rest along major trekking routes, water and percent of the animals exported through Berbera and fodder requirements are substantial. Box 5.1: Many Actors in the Livestock Value Chain in Somalia The pastoral-based livestock subsector is estimated to directly employ more than 55 percent of the country’s labor force and to provide indirect employment for another large segment of the labor force along the livestock value chain. In total, more than 65 percent of the population is estimated to be engaged in some way in the livestock subsector, from production to domestic marketing, including livestock products, to live exports (FAO 2013a). The trading chain includes many small-scale traders with little capital (gedisley in Somali), who buy animals, fatten them, and resell them in the same or nearby local markets. Large traders usually have capital, their own trucks, and contracts with major end-buyers. Brokers (dillaal) play a central role in the livestock trading chain throughout the country, facilitating virtually all small and large transactions that are concluded both in and outside markets. The sector also employs trekkers, hired by producers to move animals to market; feedlot operators, who fatten animals for sale; loaders, who operate at major market places and load animals onto trucks; lorry drivers; and workers in market sale yards, who brand or mark animals after sale to prove new ownership. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 59 5. The Livestock Subsector Figure 5.3: Main Livestock Trade Routes in Somalia Source: FAO (2017). 60 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector 5.8.2 Livestock Exports similar body shapes and taste and cooking properties, The Somali livestock subsector supplies a thriving unlike animals from Australia, New Zealand, Europe, export market (figure 5.4 and able 5.4), with more and the Americas (FAO 2013a). than 5.3 million livestock exported in 2015 (figure 5.5). To ensure steady and sustained growth of livestock Livestock are exported year-round, although the exports, Somalia needs to diversify and reduce both haj represents a peak in exports, because the Gulf its product concentration and its heavy reliance on region is Somalia’s primary export destination. a few export markets, which make the live animal Saudi Arabia accounted for almost 65 percent of all export sector very vulnerable to events in Saudi livestock exports from Somalia in 2015, followed by Arabia for shoats, Yemen and Oman for cattle and other Gulf countries. On the Arabian Peninsula, there shoats, Kenya for cattle, and Egypt for camels (Godiah is a strong preference for Somali livestock and meat, and others 2015). In response to past import bans by because of both similar and familiar halal handling Saudi Arabia, Somali traders showed a remarkable requirements and similar genetic characteristics capacity to redirect their exports to other countries between shoats in Somalia and the Gulf. Animals have in the region (from where, it can be assumed, some Figure 5.4: Livestock Exports by Somalia, by Type, 1961–2016 6.0 5.0 Millions of head 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Shoats Cattle Camel Source: Data for 1961–88 are from FAOSTAT and reflect official government data. Data for 2002–16 are from FSNAU. Data for interim years are as reported in the FAOSTAT database, but they are unofficial figures, projections, and estimates, whose source and methodology is unknown. Export figures for cattle are missing between 1992 and 1994. Shoats are sheep and goats. Table 5.4: Number of Livestock Head Exported from Ports in Somaliland, Puntland, and Southern Somalia, 2012–17 Year Sheep and goats Camel Cattle Total 2012 4,411,787 124,952 266,397 4,803,136 2013 4,238,078 94,760 279,229 4,612,067 2014 4,582,703 76,829 340,156 4,999,688 2015 4,946,602 72,420 294,992 5,314,014 2016 4,387,967 67,985 220,838 4,676,790 January–June 2017 508,485 960 19,696 529,141 July–September 2017 — — — 1,900,000 Source: FSNAU online database through 2016; internal, unpublished reports by FAO Somalia for 2017. Note: Figures for 2017 are preliminary estimates for January–June and guesstimates for July–September that include haj days (which in 2017 fell at the end of August and the beginning of September), when the vast majority of sheep and goat exports traditionally take place. — Not available. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 61 5. The Livestock Subsector Figure 5.5: Infographic on Livestock Exports by Somalia, 2015 62 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector still reached Saudi markets).57 Following the lifting of the Siad Barre regime. Since then, exports have of the second import ban by Saudi Arabia in 2009 soared (figures 5.4–5.7). Despite some short-lived and the opening of new, modern quarantine centers hiccups (notably in 1998 and 2001, coinciding with in Somaliland and Puntland managed by a Saudi the initial years of the import bans by Saudi Arabia), company, the Somali livestock subsector reverted to recorded exports rose to more than 4 million head by its previous highly concentrated export pattern. As a 2011 and more than 5 million head in 2014 and 2015. result, the most recent import ban, imposed by Saudi In 2015, the latest full year of available data, a record Arabia in December 2016, took a massive toll on 5.3 million livestock were exported from Somalia Somalia’s livestock exports. The number of animals to markets on the Arabian Peninsula, including exported during July–September 2017 (the 2017 4.9 million shoats, 294,000 cattle, and 72,000 haj season), when Saudi Arabia temporarily lifted its camels. The increase reflected heavy investments ban from the northern ports of Berbera and Bosaso, in animal disease control programs. This figure was reached only about 1.9 million head, a fraction of the the highest level of livestock exports in the last 20 more than 4 million sold in recent years. During the years. Preliminary estimates by the FAO for 2016 last quarter of 2017, livestock were exported directly suggest that up to 5.5 million animals were exported, only to Oman, Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates representing a 4 percent annual increase over 2015.58 from the northern ports and to a lesser extent to Kenya from the southern port of Kismayo. Paralleling the increase in the numbers of animals exported, the estimated value of annual exports of Steady and increasing demand from the Gulf live animals for slaughter jumped from an average States has provided and will continue to provide of about $56 million in the late 1980s to an average an important market for live animals. Saudi Arabia of $378 million year in 2011–14 and a peak of $455 is able to meet only 56 percent of its meat demand million in 2014 (the latest year for which complete from domestic supplies, and its demand for fresh and data are available in the COMTRADE database). The chilled meat is projected to grow at a compounded additional value of live animals exported for breeding annual rate of 7.4 percent over the next five years. As purposes also jumped between the two periods, part of its food security plan, the Saudi government from nil to an annual average of $43 million in 2011– is investing heavily to narrow this gap and achieve 14 and a peak of $81 million in 2014. self-sufficiency; its production capacity is targeted to double by 2020. Private investment is expected Before the civil war, most livestock export trade largely in the poultry sector, however, and Saudis have passed through the two major northern ports, first a strong consumer preference for Somali fresh meat Berbera and also then-underdeveloped Bosaso, and from shoats. These changes in Saudi Arabia are thus on a smaller scale also through the two southern not likely to reduce Somalia exports, according to FAO ports of Mogadishu and Kismayo. Smaller ports sector experts. The biggest challenge is meeting the south of Mogadishu (for example, Merka and Brava) strict quality checks and phytosanitary norms, either also handled modest volumes of livestock trade. mandated by governments or voluntarily adopted by private retailers in importing countries. Livestock exports from southern ports came to a complete stop at the start of the civil war. Only in Export volumes and values before the war were 2013 did exports of shoats resume from Mogadishu; lower than they are today. A peak of almost 1.8 cattle exports resumed from Kismayo in 2016, million head was reported in 1980. The figure thanks to improved security conditions and the declined to about 65,000 head in the late 1980s and entrepreneurship of the private sector, supported plummeted to 48,000 in 1991, after the collapse by substantial diaspora contributions and external Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 63 5. The Livestock Subsector donor funding. Exports are bound to rise further Despite its strong performance in live animal as livestock operations at Mogadishu and Kismayo exports, the development of Somalia’s livestock improve. Export of shoats dominates Somalia’s two sector continues to face several constraints: main northern export ports (figures 5.6 and 5.7). • overreliance on only a few export market outlets • overreliance on live animal exports Exports of camels and cattle also rose steadily • inadequate protection of animal health beginning in the early 2000s. Camel exports soared between 2009 and 2011, rising from 35,000 to • the limited and largely informal organization of the Somali livestock value chain and the lack of 140,000, mainly to Egypt. The increase may have coordination and integration among its actors reflected political tensions in Sudan, Egypt’s traditional camel supplier, and between Sudan and Egypt. The • poor linkages and trade negotiations with plight of Sudan and the new demand from Egypt has trading partners created market opportunity for Somalia. As Berbera is • the lack or poor quality of fodder at export ports the larger and more modern port, its exports for both and along transit routes to them camels and cattle are higher than Bosaso’s. However, • persistent transport and market infrastructural 2015 saw a marked increase in cattle exported from and logistical weaknesses. Bosaso and a decrease at the Berbera port. Figure 5.6: Livestock Exports from Berbera, 1994–2016 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Millions of head 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Shoats Cattle Camel Source: FSNAU online database. Figure 5.7: Livestock Exports from Bosaso, 1994–2016 2.5 2.0 1.5 Millions of head 1.0 0.5 0.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Shoats Cattle Camel Source: FSNAU online database. 64 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector 5.8.3 Livestock Prices and Marketing The impacts of seasonality were more evident The market value of animals is proportional to in the prices of camels than in the prices of small their body condition. During wet seasons (a proxy ruminants, possibly because most small ruminants for improved body condition), livestock prices are exported for sacrificial purposes whereas most therefore normally improve. Another factor driving camels are sold on commercial markets, which are up market prices is the seasonal spikes in demand more driven by quality than the sacrificial chains. coinciding with the occurrence of Islamic festivals (haj and Ramadan). Unlike shoat and camel prices, which have been increasing in recent years, cattle prices did not The FSNAU has been collecting market prices for change over the study period. The prices of cattle various livestock types in main and local markets reflected events at local markets, especially the since 2000. Initial evidence on prices between 2000 number of exporters. and April 2016 (see appendix E), suggests that there is strong market integration, as livestock price trends The quality grading system for both export in different regions seem to follow similar patterns. and slaughters is well established and widely Prices increased steadily over the years, including understood by Somali pastoralists (Negassa and during export bans (except in their first years). others 2012). Price information is also generally available to all actors along the chain, given the Prices for shoats seem to have levelled off in the widespread and pioneering use of cellphones in the past two years in most markets. The effect of country. A study of livestock producers in Somaliland drought on their price cannot always be clearly (Wanyoike and others 2015) confirms these findings observed, because some livestock producers and (and the importance of small ruminants as sources traders have become large-scale commercial players of cash income for pastoral families) but concludes who increase their purchases even during drought that such knowledge does not have significant periods, when pastoralists tend to increase their effects on the level of market participation. Other sale volumes, flattening their price fluctuations. factors—including the number of animals kept by the Price fluctuations can also be expected for hardy household, the gender of the sales decision maker, browsers, which are less susceptible to drought. In the age of the household head, and the livelihood the southern areas, particularly in the Juba valley, zone in which the household resided—appear more where cattle are dominant, price increases right after important in pastoralists’ decisions about sales recent major droughts were more pronounced than volume of small ruminants. in other regions. 5.9 Value Addition from Animal Products Somaliland initiated a Livestock Marketing Information System (LMIS) in 2007, to try to reduce A growing population in peri-urban and urban high market information costs. Results from a settlements needs to be fed with nutritious, safe, regression analysis show that external market shocks and affordable animal products, such as milk, meat, (notably the Saudi import bans) had significant and eggs. Value addition and processing of animal negative impacts on prices of small ruminants but products to enhance shelf life and food safety and not camels (Godiah and others 2015).59 Camels are to meet niche market demands domestically and for exported from Berbera to several countries, including exports are extremely limited, however. They provide Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman, and Yemen; small an excellent opportunity for livelihood diversification, ruminants are exported mainly to Saudi Arabia. income generation, and employment opportunities. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 65 5. The Livestock Subsector 5.9.1 Dairy products, which averaged $62 million a year in 2011– The production, collection, and marketing of milk 14, rising to $82 million in 2015. Somalia produces already provide employment and income for only raw milk, which is subject to rapid spoilage; milk people in both rural and urban areas, especially from camels lasts longer than other types of milk.60 women, who traditionally dominate its trade. Milk is a major food source for pastoralists, who tend to Many small players operate in Somalia’s milk increase their home consumption during the lean dry subsector. Milk for urban consumption is sourced seasons. It also makes an important contribution to through a matrix of informal yet interlinked regional the nutritional intake of the rest of the population. networks of producers, collectors, transporters, and vendors. Women, who are responsible for more than Fresh raw milk production in Somalia has been rising 80 percent of milk production and 100 percent of steadily since the early 1990s (figure 5.8). Camel primary milk collection, dominate the chain. Men milk is by far the most important. In 2014 Somalia dominate the transport of milk from pastoralist produced more than 1.1 million tons of camel milk, areas to urban areas, though some women are also according to FAOSTAT, with a gross market value of involved in transport. Supporting the dairy value $1.65 billion. Total milk production brought in an chain would, therefore, provide a real possibility to estimated $2.7 billion. The Drought Impact Needs promote women’s economic empowerment. Assessment (FGS 2017a) estimates milk production at a much higher level: $3.3 billion for the baseline Figure 5.9 and table 5.5 show the findings from the before the drought (which for the livestock subsector dairy value chain studies by the FAO in Maroodi Jex was in 2014), with camel milk accounting for $2.7 Region, Somaliland, as well as a study by the Somali billion of the total. Agriculture Technical Group (SATG) in various regions. Prices of milk are inversely related to the Somalia is the world’s largest producer of camel production level; when production is higher (in the milk, which Somali consumers prefer to milk from Gu and Deyr wet seasons), prices are low; during the cows. Camels can produce more milk from poor feed low-production Hagaa and Jilaal dry seasons, prices than any other livestock species, with average yields are high. As most animals are kept on the open range, of about 2.5–3.5 liters a day. seasonal accessibility and the availability of milk in towns is a major challenge. During the dry seasons, Somalia maintains only a milk subsector, not a dairy when animals are moving in search of pasture and subsector (box 5.2). It is a net importer of dairy water, milk is less available and its price tends to rise. Figure 5.8: Production of Fresh Raw Milk in Somalia, by Milk Type, 1961–2014 1.2 1.0 0.8 Millions of tons 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Cattle Goat Sheep Camel Source: FAOSTAT. 66 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector Box 5.2: From a Dairy Subsector in the 1980s to a Raw Milk–Only Subsector Today Before the civil war, Somalia had a modern milk-processing facility. The parastatal Mogadishu Milk Factory, established in 1965, had 150 full-time employees, who operated dairy processor/pasteurizer machines from Denmark. Capacity was 2,000 liters an hour. Milk production fluctuated, with peaks reached during May–June and October–November, coinciding with the Gu and Deyr rainy seasons. During these peak months, the company used to produce a daily average of 30,000 liters of pasteurized milk, 50 kilograms of cheese, and 200 liters of yoghurt. While pasteurized milk was sold exclusively to local retail markets in Mogadishu, the rest of its production was for domestic sales nationwide. A recent market analysis of the milk subsector in Somaliland estimated that total milk consumption in Hargeisa in 2012 was 254.8 million kiloliters, with demand expected to grow to 490.3 million kiloliters by 2023. Of the milk consumed in Hargeisa in 2012, however, 57 percent was raw milk and 43 percent was imported powdered milk, mainly from the Gulf countries and Europe. Of the raw milk, about 40–50 percent was imported from Ethiopia; the remainder was produced locally, according to an unpublished 2012 report by Oxfam. The situation in other major cities across the country is similar, though reliance on Ethiopian milk imports may not be as pronounced in all regions. Strong market opportunities exist for value addition of dairy products, such as pasteurized milk, sour milk, yoghurt, and cheese, for both small low-cost artisanal processers and medium-size commercial enterprises. Development and expansion of the dairy-processing sector are constrained by the high cost of all industrial activity, in large part the result of the high cost of electricity, as well as the seasonality of milk production and the low quality of raw milk (because of lack of refrigeration and unhygienic handling, which lead to high bacteria count). Figure 5.9: Production and Prices of Milk in Maroodi Jex Region, Somaliland a. Milk production in dry and wet seasons b. Average cost per litre (dollars) 6,977 0.59 0.52 Milk production (liters) Cost per liter (dollars) 0.38 4,276 0.33 3,468 2,175 1,401 0.13 1,300 0.11 665 628 Camels Cows Goats Total Camels Cows Goats Dry season Wet season Dry season Wet season Source: FAO 2014b. Addressing the seasonality of production and lactating animals close to urban areas (the Mogadishu increasing the accessibility of milk has the potential milk catchment area is a 50–100 kilometers from its to increase dairy incomes and expand opportunities center), often on privately owned pastures. New for dairy processing, if the cost of production is well production strategies are being applied, such as managed. To take advantage of such opportunities, combining livestock keeping with intensified milk various camel dairy farms were recently established production and crop farming. near major cities. Producers are keeping their Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 67 5. The Livestock Subsector Table 5.5: Price of Raw Camel and Goat Milk in Abudwaq, Baidoa, and Beletweyne (Dollars per Litre) Abudwaq/ Baidoa/ Beletweyne/ Season/type of livestock Galmudug South West Hiran Gu Camels 1.0 0.7 0.6 Goats 0.6 .. 0.5 Hagaa Camels 1.5 0.9 0.7 Goats 1.0 .. 0.7 Deyr Camels 1.0 0.7 0.6 Goats 0.6 .. 0.5 Jilaal Camels 1.5 1.3 0.9 Goats 1.0 .. 0.7 Source: UNDP and SATG 2016a. Note: FSNAU-reported prices, averaged over different markets and districts, are considerably higher than shown in this table. For instance, according to the FSNAU price database, retail prices during 2010–16 were $0.44–$0.57 per liter for goat milk and $1.50–$1.87 per liter for camel milk across all Somali regions ($2.31–$2.88 per liter of camel milk in Somaliland). In the face of high domestic demand and long- • weak agri-business management skills term export prospects, Somalia has limited or no • weak or absent institutions, policies, and experience in managing permanent pastures for regulatory systems for dairy products supporting professional milk production. Structural challenges production, handling, storage, marketing, and that have kept the Somali dairy sector from reaching consumer awareness its full potential (FAO 2014b) include the following: • poor enforcement of milk quality standards • scarcity or high cost of fodder during dry periods • poor state of transport infrastructure • animal health problems, including brucellosis • high temperature and humidity in most parts of and tuberculosis, and limited knowledge of the the country, which contribute to rapid spoilage, use of veterinary drugs making surplus milk virtually unmarketable • inadequacy of public support services • the absence of economies of scale, with the very few milk cooperatives or producer groups • low technical capacity generally poorly organized and lacking business • low phyto-hygienic standards and lack of skills and financial means (including no access to processes to preserve milk, resulting in credit from financial institutions). contamination, rapid souring, and oftentimes spoilage of the milk before it reaches urban 5.9.2 Fresh and Processed Meat consumers Meat production in Somalia has been increasing, • inefficient marketing channels that are fraught in response to growing demands for meat and with excessive intermediaries and poor linkages meat products, mostly from its own increasingly between stakeholders urbanized population (figure 5.10). Beef represents • lack of reliable market information the largest share of production.61 68 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector Figure 5.10: Production of Indigenous Meat in Somalia, by Type, 1961–2013 120,000 100,000 Tons of meat production 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Cattle Camel Goat Sheep Source: FAOSTAT. Note: Figures exclude poultry. Meat trade is almost exclusively for the local tripartite arrangement involving the municipality, market, where there is a strong preference for which owns the facility; a private firm; and the fresh (not chilled or frozen) meat. Meat is supplied community (Ombui, Mogoa, and Matete 2014). by slaughterhouses, sometimes private but often owned and managed by local governments. Somali households produce traditional home-cured (or sun-dried) meat products, such as mugmud and The meat trade is relatively profitable in all urban otka. Commercial meat processing is very limited (box markets and offers employment opportunities for 5.3), confined mostly to small quantities of chilled meat women, who dominate meat marketing. Margins for exports. Extending and upgrading local processing are about 50 percent higher for trading camel meat and value addition could create employment and beef than they are for sheep and goat meat opportunities, generate local revenue, improve meat (1.4–27.2 percent), according to Ombui, Mogoa, and quality and safety, and meet domestic demand. Matete (2014). Sufficient demand for chilled meat from Somalia The major constraints facing domestic meat appears to exist in Middle Eastern countries. marketing relate to the poor design and hygiene of Since the late 1990s, Somali livestock traders and slaughter facilities and meat markets. A 2011 survey businesspeople invested in abattoirs for export of in Somaliland revealed that many slaughter facilities chilled meat to the Gulf countries, but most of the were in poor hygienic state, lacking drainage ventures failed. Data on exports are sketchy and facilities, roofs, running water, and lighting. In available only for 2006–10 (table 5.6). many instances, meat was not inspected because of inadequate numbers of meat inspectors and The reasons for this high failure rate are multiple. The lack of a legal framework to enable the veterinary main problems are poor operational management department to enforce regulations. The poor and livestock supply constraints. Management hygiene conditions in most meat markets leave failures included disputes over profit-sharing meat vulnerable to contamination. between active and passive investing partners and failures to provide adequately for amortization and Some facilities have been renovated and managed. eventual replacement of physical assets, especially They include the Hargeisa slaughterhouse, which was factory equipment. A rapid appraisal undertaken in renovated under a public-private partnership (PPP) 2007 (Negassa and others 2012) identified uncertain Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 69 5. The Livestock Subsector Box 5.3: Current Limitations and Past Failures in Meat Processing Before the civil war, the Kismayo Meat Factory (KMF) was the only meat factory in Somalia. The plant was funded by the Soviet Union and constructed between 1964 and 1968, to produce about 9 tons a day of stewed canned meat and meat in its own juice. In 1974–75, a canned corned beef line was added and the canned meat line expanded. Daily production capacity after 1975 was 13 tons of stewed canned meat or beef in own juice (40,000 cans), 6.8 tons of corned beef (20,000 cans), and 2 tons of sausage. During 1969–76, the factory operated at close to capacity, slaughtering 200 head of cattle a day. In 1973, KMF purchased 1,291 tons of cattle for sale as frozen sides. During 1980–84, it produced only 1–700 tons of fresh and frozen cooked meat. Canned output had already begun to fall in 1977. Since then, KMF has operated only sporadically, working less than 50 days a year during 1983–85. Because of the gap between the free market cattle prices and its sale prices, which were controlled by the government, the company never covered its costs of production in any year since its establishment. Other factors hampering its operation included depletion of physical capital and the lack of spare parts from the Soviet Union. Like all other state-owned factories, its facilities collapsed and its remaining physical assets were looted right after the start of the civil war. One of the few still thriving private ventures is the Somali Meat Company, which started operations in Mogadishu in 1996. The company employs 300 workers, 260 of them seasonal, and exports 98 percent of the fresh meat it processes. It exports 3,840 tons of chilled meat to Oman weekly. The company has a modern slaughterhouse, with machinery sourced from and installed and maintained by Italy. It can slaughter 100–120 animals an hour. Over the years, the company has expanded significantly. It faces little or no competition in Somalia. Source: ISTI (1986) and Hussein (2017). Table 5.6: Chilled Meat Exports by Somalia, 2006–10 (Number of Shoat Carcasses) Slaughterhouse 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Burao, Somaliland 121,858 70,318 151,471 58,440 20,077 Galkayo, Puntland — 31,639 77,992 44,104 — Belet Weyne (Southcentral) 116,344 — 10,055 28,021 — Mogadishu Abattoir 81,200 — 252,979 — — Mogadishu Modern Abattoir 120,000 — 140,000 180,000 220,000 Total 439,402 101,957 632,497 310,565 240,077 Source: FSNAU (unpublished survey data). Note: — Not available. seasonal changes in the supply of slaughter animals Somalia’s proximity to the Gulf State markets as the major factor negatively affecting the chilled provides a strong opportunity for value chain meat value chain. Other constraints include high diversification and upgrading (Negassa and others domestic livestock prices and low demand, although 2012). The export of meat products offers better low demand is probably related to the relatively high opportunities for increased earnings and domestic prices but low quality of Somalia’s slaughter animals. employment than does the live animal trade. 70 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector Developing the meat export value chain in Somalia skins from villages and slaughterhouses, which are requires better knowledge of foreign markets and sun-dried before being resold to wholesale traders, foreign sanitary and phytosanitary regulations. The who either export or sell them to the few tanning economics of meat marketing—including abattoir companies operating in Somalia. use, economies of size, capacity utilization, location, and economic gains that processing could generate— Exports of hides and skins were a significant foreign have not been extensively studied. However, a 2009 income earner before the civil war and remain an assessment of costs of capital and maintenance important source today. In the late 1980s, annual required for implementing hazard analysis and critical average exports were about $5.3 million, making control points (HACCP) in Somali slaughterhouses hides and skins the fourth-largest export item. In showed positive returns on investments. To seize the last decade, they averaged about $8.6–8.7 opportunities for growth, the Somali meat industry million a year (figure 5.12) but represented only the needs to adopt internationally accepted quality and fifth-largest export category, thanks to much larger hygiene standards. exports of sesame seeds and charcoal. Figure 5.12: Exports of Hides and Skins from Northern Ports 5.9.3 Hides and Skins of Somalia, 2005–16 Hides and skins are byproducts of animal slaughter 16.0 for domestic consumption. Current production 14.0 levels of hides and skins are comparable to those of 12.0 the late 1980s, about 7 million pieces a year. They Millions of pieces 10.0 reflect increased animal offtake rates from a lower 8.0 overall animal population than three decades ago 6.0 (figure 5.11).62 4.0 2.0 Production of hides and skins generally takes place at two levels: production by pastoralists 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 in villages where animals are slaughtered for home consumption and production at designated Source: FSNAU. Note: Exports of hides and skins through Berbera port are in pieces; exports through slaughter facilities. Small traders collect hides and Bosaso are in bundles. Missing data for December 2010 were interpolated. Figure 5.11: Production of Hides and Skins in Somalia, 1961–2013 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 Millions of pieces 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Cattle hides Goat skins Sheep skins Source: FAOSTAT. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 71 5. The Livestock Subsector Meat production generally determines the volume study commissioned by the FAO in the Gedo region of hides and skins. However, the jump in exports in indicates that hides and skins provide a significant 2011 can be directly related to the major drought economic contribution to the regional economy. One that hit Somalia that year. As many animals perished, basic processing facility at Dollow alone is projected the number of hides and skins exported shot up. At to generate gross revenues of $125,400 a year (FAO the time of this report’s finalization, data on hide and 2016a). skin exports were not available with which to assess the effect of the most recent drought. Potential international demand for Somali hides and skins is solid. To operate successful ventures, Underscoring the below-potential performance however, herders and traders need to treat raw hides of this subsector, importing countries often reject and skins as valuable commercial assets; the entire Somali hides and skins because of poor quality and subsector must be modernized and professionalized damage by vermin, caused by improper preservation to provide higher-quality and higher-value products; and storage (Ombui, Mogoa, and Matete 2014). and private investors must invest in tanneries that There is hardly almost no processing beyond sun- do not pollute the environment, hire knowledgeable drying of raw hides and skins in the country (box 5.4). management, and ensure good corporate governance and business structure (FAO 2009). Price data on hides and skins are not systematically collected in Somalia. The Somaliland Chamber of 5.9.4 Poultry Commerce found market prices in October 2016 in Only scanty information is available about the Burao and Hargeisa of $0.45–$2 for sheep, $4–$10 poultry sector. No imports of poultry or poultry for cattle, and $0.90–$3 for camels, depending on the products were recorded during the prewar years or grade and the market. These prices represent about the first decade of the civil war. By 2010, Somaliland 2–3 percent of the live animal’s retail value. A 2016 was importing 11 tons of frozen chicken and 178,000 Box 5.4: The Sad State of Hide and Skin Processing in Somalia Like all processing factories before the civil war, the Somali Leather Agency was also a public monopoly. Established in the late 1970s and headquartered in Mogadishu, it handled the marketing and export of raw hides and skins and owned tanneries. It paid herders less than half the market value of their goods, however, and therefore had trouble procuring enough hides of sufficient quality for processing. Like most other all factories, the prewar tanneries were looted and completely destroyed. New tanneries emerged during the civil unrest. Among them was a Chinese joint venture between Hargeisa and Berbera, which folded in early 2016 after only a few months of operation, because of a strong backlash by the local population over contamination of the underground water used for drinking and small-scale crop irrigation. The Bosaso Tannery is the only one currently in operation. It processes wet salted, dry salted, wet blue, limed, pickled, and air/frame-dried sheep and goat hides and skins (only natural chemicals are used in the production of the pickled variety). Daily turnover is 5,000 skins and 300 camel hides, with about 90,000 tons of hides and skins exported every year to Gulf States (mostly for reexport to other markets), Ethiopia, Turkey, Pakistan, India, China, and Italy. In 2012, the company also started leather production. It is currently exploring export to markets in the Middle East and other areas. Source: Hussein (2017). 72 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector dozen of eggs a year, from Brazil, Yemen, Oman, Poultry production is concentrated mainly in agro- and the United Arab Emirates (Somaliland 2012). By pastoral livelihood zones and peri-urban areas. It 2015, Somalia as a whole was importing $3.4 million is widespread among poor households. Households worth of live chicks and $0.5 million of birds’ eggs a keeping local chickens do so for both consumption year, according to COMTRADE data. and income generation. Unreliable production estimates are shown in figure 5.14. A number of According to official national accounts and FAOSTAT commercial poultry enterprises have also been data, production of eggs was about 2,500 tons established or are in the process of being established, (just below 60 million eggs) a year in the late mostly to supply nearby towns. They receive support 1980s (figure 5.13). Subsequent estimates indicate from the Promoting Inclusive Markets in Somalia a relatively stable production level of eggs following (PIMS) project funded by the U.K. Department for a full recovery after the major dip immediately after International Development (DFID). the start of the civil war. Poultry production rose steadily through the 1990s. It was estimated at about One of the largest such businesses, Ubale Poultry, 3,603 tons a year in 2014, slightly above prewar level near Hargeisa, recently expanded from 5,000 to of about 3,000 tons. 35,000 hens. It produces about 30,000 eggs a day, Figure 5.13: Production of Eggs in Somalia, 1961–2014 3,000 2,500 Egg production (tons) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: FAOSTAT. Figure 5.14: Production of Poultry Meat in Somalia, 1961–2014 4,000 3,500 Poultry meat production (tons) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: FAOSTAT. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 73 5. The Livestock Subsector which it sells in major urban markets (Hargeisa, almost complete lack of rain at the end of 2016 to Burao, Borama, and also Djibouti) for $5.50 per cause a major drought affecting all regions, resulting 30-egg crate (see appendix H). As of March 2017, in much reduced water and pasture availability for a handful of similar poultry farms were being built livestock, high mortality of animals, and a major on the outskirts of Mogadishu. Further expansion of decline in the products of surviving animals. Crops poultry production is still constrained by shortage were also hurt. and the costs of skilled labor and inputs, including poultry feed and feed concentrates, poultry stock, Almost three decades of civil conflict and insecurity and drugs and vaccines.63 have weakened governance institutions to the point that there is virtually no capacity to handle 5.10 Impact of the 2016/17 Drought on emergencies of this magnitude. In normal years, the the Livestock Subsector country’s pastoralists cover 60–80 percent of their food consumption from market purchases and the Periodic droughts have severe effects on the remaining 20–40 percent from their own production livestock subsector (table 5.7).64 The northwestern (milk, ghee, and meat). The recent drought has had regions’ livestock economy was affected by a severe a devastating effect on the livelihoods and food drought in 2015. Since then, several consecutive security of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists alike. seasons of below-average rains combined with an Table 5.7: Drought-Related Damage to and Losses in Somalia’s Livestock Subsector, October 2016–September 2017 Total Livestock Total Livestock Loss Value Total Livestock Damage (Millions of dollars) Damage and Percent from Region (Death) Value Loss value Total Damage (Millions of Milk Loss Live weight Total (Millions of and Loss dollars) dollars) Awdal 10 21 28 49 59 3.7 Woqooyi Galbeed 15 23 46 69 84 5.2 Togdheer 30 61 61 122 152 9.4 Sool 42 32 44 75 117 7.3 Sanaag 37 35 72 107 143 8.9 Bari 22 14 43 57 79 4.9 Nugaal 40 47 80 127 168 10.4 Mudug 34 53 68 121 155 9.6 Galgaduud 31 59 63 122 153 9.5 Hiraan 17 33 48 81 98 6.1 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 4 5 21 26 30 1.9 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 9 10 33 44 52 3.2 Bay 13 18 29 47 61 3.8 Bakool 14 22 36 58 72 4.5 Gedo 21 38 56 94 115 7.1 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 4 6 16 22 26 1.6 Juba Hoose (Lower) 6 17 25 43 49 3.0 Total 351 495 767 1,262 1,613 100 Source: Somalia 2018. 74 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector In the northwestern regions of Somaliland, the rain weight of the surviving animals were valued at shortfall of the 2016 Deyr season either heavily about $1.2 billion.65 Damages and losses together or moderately affected 29 percent of the grazing were an estimated $1.6 billion. area in Woqooyi Galbeed and 14 percent of the grazing area in Togdheer, according to remote- Although the proximate cause of these losses sensing estimates commissioned by the World was the drought, the root cause was the lack of Bank. During the most recent Gu season, the areas preparation and risk-mitigation strategy, especially affected by drought in these two regions were much of feed and stored water, which could have contained lower (13 percent and 2 percent, respectively). The the impact of the drought. The effect of the drought situation in the northcentral regions of Sool and was worst in the north-central areas, severe in many Sanaag as well as in the northeastern regions of Bari other central and northern areas, and less severe in and Nugaal is similar. the southern part of the country (figure 5.15). Just south of these regions, in the Figure 5.15: Map of Estimated Economic Damages and Losses from 2016/17 Drought Mudug region, 36 percent of grazing areas were highly or moderately affected by drought conditions in late 2016, and 19 percent were affected in the most recent months. In Southern Somalia, the drought hit grazing areas hardest, with 63–93 percent of grazing areas between the Juba and Shabelle rivers affected. During the Gu season (April–June), the share of affected areas ranged from 16 percent (in Hiraan) to 35 percent (in Bakool). The much-reduced pasture and water availability for livestock at the end of 2016 caused severe morbidity, lower resistance to common diseases, and large-scale mortality of animals and large production losses. During the Deyr 2016 and Gu 2017 seasons, more than 6.4 million head of livestock (12 US DOLLARS percent of the predrought livestock 0 - 1,000,000 population of about 52.9 million) 1,000,001 - 5,000,000 died, causing damage of more than 5,000,001 - 12,000,000 $350 million. Production losses from 12,000,001 - 15,000,000 the drought in terms of lower milk 15,000,001 - 23,000,000 output (from reduced productivity per surviving animal and a reduced Source: Public Affairs Department, Ipsos, based on estimates for the Drought Impact Needs livestock population) and lower body Assessment (Somalia 2017a). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 75 5. The Livestock Subsector 5.11 Growth Opportunities and Prospects However, most analysts believe that there will be a for the Livestock Subsector steady and increasing demand for live animals and meat from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States, which Even before the civil war, livestock officials will remain by far the largest export market from and experts voiced strong concerns about the Somalia. In 2016, the Economic Intelligence Unit sustainability of further growth of a large livestock projected a compounded annual growth rate of 7.4 population on already fragile and overgrazed percent over the following five years for Somalia’s rangelands. Since then, the rangelands have exports of livestock and livestock products, despite experienced further environmental degradation; a projected economic slowdown in the Gulf region, the absence or failure of traditional or modern current efforts by Saudi Arabia to reduce its import governance for access to water sources and dependency, and political instability in Yemen. grazing areas; and the combined impact of higher temperatures, decreased rainfall, and more extreme Growth prospects for the Somali livestock subsector drought events linked to climate change. are limited largely by supply-side constraints rather than domestic and foreign demand. In addition Most sector experts are convinced that the to the priority needs of improving rangeland predrought livestock population of almost 53 management (as discussed in chapter 4) and animal million head already surpassed the carrying capacity health, there are ample opportunities to improve of the rangelands, even if effective governance animal welfare along all transit routes and at all mechanisms were reestablished. Recovery and market centers and export ports. Animal quality is resilience strengthening from the recent drought and expected to improve as the ports in Mogadishu and further growth prospects for the sector are therefore Kismayo expand their activities, reducing transport not to be found in restocking to the predrought distance and feed demand for livestock exports from herd size (except for the poorest agro-pastoral southern regions. However, substantial investments households) and spurring increases in the size of the in road infrastructure from small rural towns to animal population. The solution lies in improving primary inland markets to ports of exit are required the health and quality of the current stock and in to ease the movement of livestock along the entire raising productivity (offtake for exports and domestic supply chain. consumption) and value added (from processing of animal products). The demand for water and fodder in markets and along major transport routes is substantial and will Overreliance on a few market outlets with a continue to increase, as domestic urban consumption relatively narrow product range is a significant and exports grow and extreme weather events risk to the Somali livestock export sector. The become more frequent. Enhancing the effectiveness recent opening up of other exporting ports, such as of the feed supply chain, to bring down costs and Mogadishu and Kismayo, presents new opportunities improve the quality and variety of feed that is being for diversification. supplied to market centers and ports, would help improve the sector’s competitiveness. Somalia should also leverage ongoing discussions (particularly under the guidance of the In some markets, especially in the Gulf countries, Intergovernmental Authority on Development and there is a strong preference for younger animals, to some extent the African Union) on diversifying especially goats, with lower weight for immediate market outlets from countries in the Horn of Africa. consumption and for local fattening. Reductions in 76 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 5. The Livestock Subsector shoats’ age of sale would increase annual offtake Ample opportunities also exist in expanding and rates while curbing animal population growth and modernizing the supply chains for all livestock pressure on grazing resources. Such a strategy should products, from raw milk and hides and skins to be carefully promoted, so that a more rapid turnover hygienic slaughterhouses for chilled meat exports, of male animals does not lead to a poorer selection of small- and medium-scale dairy production, and breeders the following year, limiting the genetic pool. poultry keeping. Gradually moving up the value Some studies have also found evidence of economies chain would have the strongest impact on improving of scale and financial advantage for both herders and nutrition, increasing incomes and employment traders in species specialization, especially toward (including of youth and women), and contributing to goats (Negassa and others 2012). economic diversification. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 77 Chapter 6 THE CROP SUBSECTOR Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 79 6. The Crop Subsector Key Findings • Before the civil war, the crop subsector was the second-largest contributor to GDP and exports, after livestock. It remains crucial for food security, but its contribution to the economy is much smaller than it was before the war. Over the past three decades, the volume of cereal production declined by almost 60 percent from its 1989 peak (53 percent compared with the average for the 1980s). Even before the current drought, food aid and food imports were already larger than domestic production of grains. • Some 3 million hectares (about 5 percent of the total land) are cultivable, with 2.3 million under rainfed conditions and 700,000 hectares suitable either for pump or recession-controlled irrigation. Before the most recent drought, only a fraction of irrigable land was irrigated and cultivated (less than 20 percent of potential and about half of irrigated land before the war). • Almost two-thirds of cultivable lands, both rainfed and irrigated, is in the fertile areas along and between the two major rivers in the southern regions. A smaller cultivated area in the northwestern regions and some oasis and coastal cultivated areas in the northeastern regions constitute the remaining third. They rely mostly on groundwater extraction, rainfall harvesting, and moisture retaining techniques. The recent drought affected very large parts of these areas. • Irrigated farming systems—which grow maize, sesame, bananas, other food crops, fruits, and vegetables—face many constraints. They include (a) much diminished and inconsistent surface water availability in southern Somalia, as a result of the dilapidated state of its prewar irrigation and flood control infrastructure and minimal rehabilitation efforts because of persistent insecurity; (b) lack of water use planning and regulation, which has led to inefficient water use, increased salinization, and water logging; (c) poor soil fertility management, as inputs such as manure, fertilizer, and pesticides are either used in a suboptimal way or not used at all, because of lack of adequate funds and inputs availability in remote areas; (d) low-quality seeds and the availability of only very limited varieties on the market; (e) limited and unreliable mechanized equipment (most farmers use handheld tools to till the land, because of the high cost of machinery); (f) badly deteriorated roads, which increase the time and costs of transporting crops to markets, undermining incentives to expand horticulture crops; and (g) inappropriate farming techniques, as a result of the absence of extension and research services. • Another, potentially overwhelming, constraint is agricultural development upstream in the Ethiopian basins of the Shabelle and Juba rivers. The Shabelle River dried out completely twice, in March 2016 and between late December 2016 and early April 2017. Full implementation of the Ethiopian water master plan could eventually cause a drastic reduction in river flows downstream, possibly by more than 80 percent for the Shabelle River, and alter prevailing stream flow patterns, including flood intensities, jeopardizing most of Somalia’s irrigated crop production. • Under rainfed farming, a production system geared mainly to meet subsistence needs of rural households, the major crops grown are sorghum, cowpea, and, to a lesser extent, maize and sesame, as well as khat and millet in the northwest corner of the country. The main constraints faced by rainfed farming systems include (a) lower and more erratic rainfall than in the past, resulting in more frequent and intense cycles of droughts and floods; (b) deteriorated water harvesting and storage infrastructure, with minimal investment in new facilities; (c) poor soil management, resulting in very low moisture retention and inadequate internal drainage, which cannot support crops to maturity; and (d) very-low-input farming techniques and a traditional, low-risk response to erratic rainfall conditions. • Even in normal years, average yields are very low. However, if the constraints summarized above were fully addressed, the expert consensus is that average yields could increase by a factor of four to six for maize and three for sorghum. 80 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector 6.1 Production Systems for Food Crops productivity potential for crops, as a result of very low and unreliable rainfall. Before the civil war, crop production was second in importance to livestock with regard to its shares of Most crop production is undertaken in the Southern GDP and exports; it was also crucial to food security. regions by small-scale subsistence farmers with Lack of consistent and updated information on the an average of 0.2–3.0 hectares of land. Major importance of different economic sectors makes cereal crops are maize and sorghum. Other crops it difficult to assess its current contribution to the of economic importance are fruits, vegetables, economy, although it is believed to remain second, legumes, and sesame. Among fruit crops, bananas albeit a distant second, after livestock. used to be very important, with exports to Italy and Middle Eastern markets. Sugarcane was also Mean annual rainfall in Somalia ranges from of major commercial importance, with exports to less than 100 millimeters in the coastal arid and the United Arab Emirates. In recent years, sesame semiarid area to 600–800 millimeters at higher seed and lemon have become important export elevations along the Juba and Shabelle river commodities. According to the FAO, the smallholder- systems in the south and in some parts of Awdal in farming subsector accounts for 80 percent of total the western part of Somaliland. The areas with the crop output and 70 percent of marketed agricultural highest rainfall constitute the major farming zones produce. Use of appropriate technologies and inputs, of the country. The rainfall pattern is divided into such as hybrid seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides, and two cropping seasons: the Deyr season (October– good agriculture practices, is very limited, a problem December) and the Gu season (April–June). However, that is at the root of low agriculture productivity. the increasingly unpredictable nature of rainfall, in both time and geographic distribution, represents a 6.1.1 Irrigated Farming Systems much stronger challenge for agriculture production Irrigated agriculture is found in three locations: and rural livelihoods than it once did. • along the banks of the Juba and Shabelle rivers in southern and central Somalia, the The FAO estimates that only about 3 million hectares only perennial streams in Somalia, covering a of land—about 5 percent of the total—is cultivable. catchment of about 220,872 square kilometers Of this total, almost 2.3 million hectares produces or and 296,972 square kilometers, respectively could produce crops under rainfed conditions, and • a limited area in western Somaliland almost 700,000 hectares could produce crops under pump or recession-controlled irrigation, mainly along • scattered oases along dry river beds and the two main rivers, the Shabelle and the Juba. Only underground streams in Puntland, both of which 110,800 hectares are currently irrigated, which is less rely on surface water from springs and shallow than half the 222,950 hectares under irrigation just wells with small one-piston pumps (figure 6.1). before the civil war and only about 15 percent of the total potential irrigable land (EU 2010; SWALIM Irrigated farming systems are based mainly on small and FAO 2014). Almost two-thirds of cultivable land and medium-scale gravity and pump irrigation, which (rainfed and irrigated) is in the southern parts of the are used to produce maize; sesame; fruits (banana, country (see EU 2010) (figure 6.1). Apart from the lemon and other citrus fruits, guava, mangoes, fertile areas along and between the two major rivers papaya, watermelon, and dates); and vegetables, and a small cultivated area in the northwest of the for both subsistence and markets. Sesame and dry country, Somalia is primarily rangeland, with low lemon are the only two crops current exported. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 81 6. The Crop Subsector Figure 6.1: Map of Somalia’s Crop-Growing Zones Source: Public Affairs Department, Ipsos, based on estimates for the Drought Impact Needs Assessment (Somalia 2017a). Other than seeds, which are generally sourced by In the Shabelle River basin, crop cultivation takes seed traders for vegetable crops and farmers’ own place mostly in the flood plains adjacent to the seed savings for cereal crops, farmers use very few Lower and Middle Shabelle. It is irrigated mainly inputs. Yields for most crops are very low, because by gravity, though pumps are also used (figure 6.2). of low input levels, moisture stress, poor farming The Lower Shabelle was the most productive area techniques, pests and diseases, and poor seed for bananas, maize, and sesame before the civil war. quality coupled with an almost nonexisting extension The main prewar irrigation systems are no longer and research service. functioning, however, and many farms have been 82 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector Figure 6.2: Map of Land Use in the Shabelle and Juba River Basins Land use classes in the Juba and Shabelle Riverine areas of study R: Rainfed Agriculture RT: Rainfed Agriculture /Transhumance Pastoralism TR: Transhumance Pastoralism /Rainfed Agriculture TWR: Transhumance Pastoralism/Wood Collection/Rainfed Agriculture I: Irrigation TI: Transhumance Pastoralism /Irrigated Agriculture TP: Transhumance Pastoralism TW: Transhumance Pastoralism /Wood Collection U: Built Up Areas RST: Rural Settlement BL: Bare Lands W: Water Body Town Road River Districts boundary Source: SWALIM and FAO 2007c. abandoned. (Chapter 2 describes the extensive war, old sugarcane and rice plantations were located network of infrastructure in southern and central here. Mixed cereal and sesame crops are produced in Somalia in the late 1980s, its current dilapidated this area, despite many abandoned fields. state, and the large reduction in land area under controlled irrigation.) Because of the fluctuating level The Upper Shabelle, located in the Hiraan region, of rain in the eastern highlands, water projects and in the center of the country, is the least productive intensified use for own agricultural development part of the Shabelle River basin, because of a narrow in Ethiopia’s Shabelli catchment area, and the flood plain, sand dunes in some parts (Jalalaqsi), disrepair of barrages upstream, the Lower Shabelle and obstacles to gravity irrigation because of the has become very vulnerable to alternating floods deep river valley. However, mixed agro-pastoral and river water shortages. Farming in this area has farming systems exist here, with vast fields of cereals declined significantly since the start of the civil war, used as pasture for grazing. with many more subsistence farmers than before the war. Some commercial farmers sell cereals, bananas, In the Juba River basin, crops are irrigated mainly other fruits, and vegetables in Mogadishu and other by flood recession along the river. Water is allowed large regional markets. to flood the low-lying lands close to the river; crops are then planted in the newly exposed soil as the The Middle Shabelle is a very productive area, with flood water recedes. Before the civil war, this area heavy rainfall (492–545 millimeters a year). Before the had large banana plantations. Today, the main crops Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 83 6. The Crop Subsector are sesame, maize, beans, peas, watermelons, to small commercial units producing vegetables vegetables, and groundnuts. The most productive and fruits near major towns. Supplementary water part of the area is in the Upper Juba, where riverine for irrigation is obtained from hand-dug shallow agriculture based on pumped irrigation produces wells and dams and along the alluvial plains. Water- onions and tobacco for the major urban markets harvesting mechanisms such as diversion furrows, of Mogadishu, Kismayo, and Baidoa. Tomatoes and check dams, and wells are used to maintain soil peppers are also important cash crops in this area.66 moisture. Vegetables and fruit trees are grown in a Maize yields are estimated to be about 1 ton per few pockets of oasis farming in the Dur valley of the hectare on better soils with irrigation and 0.6 ton Awdal and Erigabo area. Watermelon is the only crop per hectare on poorer soils with limited irrigation; that is exported (from Somaliland to Djibouti). sesame yields are 0.3–0.4 ton per hectare in normal years (SWALIM and FAO 2007c). In addition to still unresolved security-related issues in the rural southern regions of Somalia, the main In Puntland, all irrigated agricultural farms are along constraints faced by the irrigated farming systems the seasonal streams. Water is channeled directly include the following (in order of importance): from the springs and/or shallow wells constructed • Much diminished and inconsistent surface water close to the streams in the valley bottoms. The total availability in (still insecure) Southern Somalia, area covered by irrigation is about 2,848 hectares. because of the dilapidated state of its prewar Numerous small oasis farms are located in the irrigation and flood control infrastructure along Bosaso and Daroor basins (figure 6.3; see appendix its two main rivers and the absence of new F for the size of irrigated farms by district). The projects in the past 25 years. major crops grown are fruit trees (date palm, citrus, • Weak water management, on and off farm, and tamarind) and vegetables, mainly for the local because of the absence of water use planning market and some limited fodder. The average field and regulation, which results in inefficient water is less than 2 hectares and has limited intercropping, use, increased salinization, and land that is more low soil fertility, and increased salinity and pest prone to water logging. management issues. • Poor soil fertility management, because inputs such as manure, fertilizer, and pesticides are Irrigated agriculture constitutes only 10 percent of used in a suboptimal way or not used at all, Somaliland’s total area cultivated, supporting about partly because of their high cost and limited 4,000 farm families (figure 6.4). Farming systems availability in remote areas, as a result of badly are based on irrigated fruit trees (citrus, banana, deteriorated roads. guava, mango, papaya, date palm, and tamarind) intercropped with vegetables (tomato, chili, onion, • Low-quality seeds and the lack of diversified watermelon, cabbage, and lettuce) and coupled with varieties available on the market. transhumance pastoralism (camels, goats, cattle, and • Inappropriate farming techniques, in the donkeys). Spate irrigation (an ancient method that absence of extension and research services. uses seasonal floods from normally dry river beds • Limited mechanized farming. Most farmers to fill irrigation canals and which is well developed use handheld tools to till the land, because of in Eritrea and eastern Tigray) is limited to very small the high cost of machinery. The machine park areas in the Beer and Oodweyne districts for the available for land preparation, supplementary production of cereals and fodder for livestock, and in pump irrigation, and maintenance of its Alaybaday, southwest of Hargeisa, for the production irrigation systems is in a poor state, costly to of vegetables and fruits.67 Pump irrigation is limited operate, and inefficient. 84 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector Figure 6.3: Map of Irrigated Areas in Bari, Nugaal, Sool and Sanaag Regions LEGEND Streams (Seasonal) Oasis farms Major roads District boundaries Regional boundaries 1:1,188,372 0 12.5 25 50 Km LEGEND Streams (Seasonal) Oasis farms Major roads District boundaries Regional boundaries 1:1,171,272 0 15 30 60 Km Source: SWALIM 2010. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 85 6. The Crop Subsector • Difficult and costly market access, largely Somalia and another system in Somaliland (see the because of the badly deteriorated road network, map showing Somalia’s agro-ecological zones in which make transporting crops to nearby villages appendix C). and main regional markets costly, undermining • Somalia’s sorghum basket zone is located in the incentives to expand horticulture crops. Bay agro-pastoral high-potential livelihood zone, which covers the Qansahdhere, Baidoa, and 6.1.2 Rainfed Farming Systems Dinsoor districts as well as some areas of the Rainfed farming systems are low-input agriculture Burhakaba district. This area is characterized by systems geared mainly to meeting the subsistence needs of rural households. Rainfed farming is good fertility with productive vertisols (soils with common throughout the country where irrigation is a high content of expansive clay that forms deep not feasible, except on the coastal sandy plains and in cracks in drier seasons or years) and calcisols high limestone areas. (soils with a substantial secondary accumulation of lime).68 It also has some of the highest rainfall The major rainfed crops are sorghum, cowpea, and, in Somalia (500–600 millimeters) and an altitude to a more limited extent, maize. These crops are of 100–500 meters above sea level. This region grown in four main cropping systems in Southern produces about half the sorghum production Figure 6.4: Map of Irrigated Areas in Awdal, Woqooyi, Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag Regions Source: SWALIM (2012b). 86 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector of southern Somalia. It also produces maize, wood collection for charcoal, and fodder cowpea, sesame, and groundnut. Farming production. The most common crops grown are systems are largely agro-pastoral, with cattle maize and sorghum, as well as khat and millet. reared more than other species. Crop production is based purely on rainfall • The Bay-Bakool agro-pastoral zone is equally and the harvesting of rain water (in bunding, dependent on crop and livestock production to berkads, check dams, and diversion furrows). sustain low-potential livelihoods. The existing Farming systems are predominantly subsistence crop production system consists of rainfed in nature. However, some farmers produce agriculture combined with farming in flood- large surpluses of grains from high-yielding, recession areas (runoff water from higher land local, late-maturing sorghum landraces (six- areas, particularly Burhakaba and Dinsoor month maturing Elmi Jama sorghum variety), districts). The rainfall pattern tends to be highly whose products are consumed as a staple, sold cyclical, with a pattern of sufficient rains for a locally, and stored in underground pits. Crop number of years followed by years of lesser residues and failed sorghum and maize sowings rains resulting in droughts and crop failure (as contribute significantly to livestock feeding, has been the case since early 2016). and the heavy sowing rates used for both crops • The Shabelle and Juba riverine valleys have (10–32 kilograms per hectare for sorghum rainfed sorghum, sesame, and cowpea crops in 2011) reflect the dual-purpose nature of combined with irrigated crops, such as maize, household planting policies (FSNAU 2011). sesame, fruit trees, and horticulture. Farmers normally intercrop maize with sorghum to reduce the risk of total crop failure because of • The coastal cowpea belt zone is mainly the sensitivity of maize to dry spells and to the dependent on livestock (mainly camel and maize stalk borer. goats). It is classified as an agro-pastoral food economy zone. With no limitation with regard to access to land in this zone, shifting cultivation The main constraints faced by the rainfed farming is practiced on farms that are abandoned after systems include the following: three years and returned to only after 30–35 • lower and more erratic rainfall than in the past, years. Cowpea is the major crop grown in both resulting in more frequent and intense cycles of the Gu and Deyr seasons, because it is more droughts and floods. resistant to water stress. Sorghum cultivation is • deteriorated water harvesting and storage rare; it takes place mainly in the Deyr season, infrastructure, with minimal investment over because it is more resistant to water stress. Both the last three decades in new facilities, even crops are often intercropped with watermelon. under the more established governments in • Somaliland’s sorghum belt is in the northwestern Somaliland and Puntland. agro-pastoral region, encompassing the • poor soil management, resulting in soils with four main rainfed cereal-producing areas of very low moisture retention and inadequate Somaliland, around Borama and Baki in Awdal internal drainage, which cannot support crops and Gabiley and Hargeisa in Woqooyi Galbeed. to maturity. Annual rainfall can exceed 500 millimeters. • low- or no-input farming techniques for staple Farming systems are based on a combination of foods, a traditional low-risk response to rainfed agriculture, transhumance pastoralism, increasingly erratic rainfall conditions. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 87 6. The Crop Subsector 6.1.3 Water Constraints to Crop Production • the deliberate breaching of river embankments Increased water scarcity and poor water management for informal, unregulated flood irrigation and are at the top of the lists of constraints for both recession cultivation irrigated and rainfed crop production. Already • particularly unfavorable topography in the before the civil war, Somalia’s physical infrastructure, lower reaches of the Middle Shabelle to contain built mostly in the 1970s and 1980s, had started the river, as the wider, natural riverine overflow suffering from underinvestment in new construction, area is higher than the surrounding flood plain underspending in operations and maintenance, and • sedimentation, which leads to rising levels of mismanagement. Nonetheless, at the eve of the the river bed, particularly upstream of weirs civil war, a large water infrastructure network and barrages. supported high and rising crop production levels. After the collapse of the central government, most Drought and flood events are predicted to become public infrastructure fell into disrepair. Even under more extreme and more frequent along the Juba the more established governments in the two and Shabelle rivers because the flow of both rivers northern regions, minimal or no new investment depends mainly on rainfall and runoff upstream in has taken place in water infrastructure, and weak Ethiopia. According to long-term climate projections institutions have meant few improvements in made for Ethiopia, rainfall events there may become water management. heavier, making floods more frequent in the river basins downstream (UNDP 2012). If this happens, The frequency and intensity of both major and recession farming will remain feasible only if crops flash floods in the river basins of Southern Somalia are highly flood- and drought-resistant and farmers increased in the last two and a half decades, can cope with the irregularity of the recurring floods. especially in recent years, unlike In the decade before the civil war, when an extensive network of Only a limited number of irrigation projects has flood control infrastructure had made such events been implemented in the Juba and Shabelle rare (see chapter 2 for a discussion of infrastructure catchment areas in Ethiopia, where 90 percent of and chapter 4 on the impact of climate change on the rivers’ downstream flows originate. Several the weather). These floods cause extensive damages dams for hydropower generation and irrigation during the rainy season and affect far more people are being built, and more are envisioned under within a short period than other natural disasters in Somalia’s Water Resources Master Plan. the basin. According to a 2016 study, about 900,000 people in Somalia are exposed to disastrous floods For the first time on record, the Shabelle River (SWALIM 2016). dried out completely (figure 6.5)—twice in the space of a year, in March 2016 and in December The Shabelle River channel no longer has the 2016–March 2017. An Ethiopian government official capacity to carry much more than the typical annual admitted that his country “had deliberately stopped flow. Above-average rains upstream (including in the Shabelle River water flow behind a dam to store Ethiopia) easily result in flash floods. Reasons for this the water for irrigation of the farming fields in the new phenomenon include the following: Somali region of Ethiopia.”69 • the complete disrepair of flood control and river The two rivers not only provide water for much infrastructure and regulation needed irrigation, they are also critical to maintaining • the growth of unregulated new settlements in the very fertile Somali flood plains, where crops flood plains are grown for domestic and foreign markets. Under 88 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector Figure 6.5: Dry Bed of the Shabelle River Source: Puntland News24, February 5, 2017. the full master plan development scenario, by 2035, water for irrigated agriculture. Groundwater levels more than 80 percent of the water resources of the are also declining in both shallow wells and deeper Ethiopian Shabelle basin would be used to upscale and boreholes, a trend that is expected to continue and supply Ethiopian agriculture, livestock, and domestic possibly increase with further population pressure water needs. The plan would drastically reduce water and climate change. There is a general consensus that availability in the Somali part of the basin (both river climate events will become more extreme. Increased water flow and potentially groundwater recharge), downpour intensities will cause increased water diminishing the potential for recession farming and runoff and decreased water infiltration, reducing increasing competition for water among Somali water availability for plant growth. farmers and pastoralists.70 The population of Somalia continues to grow at a Water availability is decreasing in both Somaliland very rapid rate, increasing demand for both surface and Puntland.71 Given the lack of perennial streams, and groundwater by household and industrial the mostly arid climate, and low annual rainfall, users. In the northern regions, population growth groundwater represents the sole permanent water has already resulted in declines in per capita water resource. Spate floods are a regular seasonal feature, quality and availability. Table 6.1 shows projections with potential for future expansion, but aquifers of population growth and water demand in the Juba are deep, low-yielding, and often highly saline. and Shabelle River basins. Their salinity means either lower quality or less Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 89 6. The Crop Subsector Table 6.1: Projected Population Growth and Water Demand in the Juba and Shabelle River Basins, 2005–55 Rural share of population Annual water demand Year Population in the basin (percent) (million cubic meters) 2005 (base year) 4,480,780 62 51.2 2020 6,682,059 54 82.2 2035 9,964,762 48 130 2037 10,510,123 47 138 2055 16,977,581 40 235.7 Source: SWALIM (2013). Note: Population figures are based on annual growth of 2.7 percent. 6.2 Trends in Crop Production to an average of about 120,000 tons. In more recent predrought years (2010–15), average maize 6.2.1 Cereal Crop Production production decreased to about 110,000 tons, falling The decrease in cereal production has been so to 63,251 tons in 2016 as a result of below-average dramatic over the past three decades that recent rains. In 1988–90, sorghum production averaged (predrought) food aid and food imports now exceed 275,000 tons, peaking at 330,000 tons in 1989. During domestic production of grains. Before the recent 2010–15, annual production was only 110,000 tons, drought, production levels were 60 percent below 60 percent less than in the late 1980s. It fell to 78,801 their peak 1989 level. Before the civil war, annual tons in 2016. average cereal production was about 500,000 tons (1980–90), peaking in 1989 at 654,000 tons. The Crop subsector performance remains constrained long-term postwar (1995–2006) annual average by the volatile security situation and the absence amounted to about 265,000 tons; Over the past of the rule of law, especially in the Southern decade (2007–15), production remained roughly regions; insufficient technical and support services; unchanged, with high intra-annual variations as a insufficient infrastructure and market integration and result of erratic rainfall, dry spells, recurrent floods, development; the absence of a credit system; and the pests, and diseases (figure 6.6). absence of effective natural resource management and environmental protection. Consequently, food Maize production peaked at about 353,000 tons aid and imports of grain—including rice, maize, in 1988. It dropped 63 percent in 1995–2015, and wheat (which are used to make bread and Figure 6.6: Production of Cereal in Somalia, 1961–2015 700,000 600,000 500,000 Metric tonnes 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Maize Sorghum Total cereal Source: FAOSTAT from 1961 to 1994, FSNAU from 1995 to 2016. Note: Annual figures include mid-year Gu harvests and end-of-year Deyr harvests (of January of the following year). 90 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector pasta, which most urban Somalis consume in large peak (in 2002) to 60,356 tons at its trough (in 2006), quantities)—have increasingly replaced domestic a year severely affected by drought. Average annual production of cereals (figure 6.7). In 2010–15, food maize production during 2009–15 was 110,000 tons. imports and food aid accounted for 48 percent and During 1998–2015, sorghum production fluctuated 13 percent of cereal supply, respectively; local cereal widely, from a peak of 180,000 tons in 2002 to a production accounted for only 39 percent of cereal trough of 33,000 tons in 2005. Annual production supply. In 1988–90, when cereal production peaked, averaged 106,000 tons in 2013–15. It fell to 42,181 local production accounted for 70 percent of cereal tons in 2016. supply, and food imports and food aid contributed only 23 percent and 7 percent, respectively. Annual maize yields are low, at 0.4–0.6 tons per hectare, with a long-term average of 0.5 tons In southern Somalia, annual average cereal per hectare (figure 6.9). There are large intrayear production fell by almost half between the late variations across farms, regions, and seasons, related 1990s and 2009–15, declining from almost 442,000 to rainfall (quantity and distribution), the timing and tons to only 227,000 tons (figure 6.8).72 Maize quality of cultivation, the type and quality of seeds, production fluctuated between 204,000 tons at its weeding, pests and diseases, and other factors. Figure 6.7: Domestic Cereal Production, Cereal Imports, and Food Aid in Somalia, 1988–2015 1.4 1.2 Millions of Metric tons 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Production Import Food Aid Source: FAOSTAT, World Food Programme, and FSNAU. Figure 6.8: Production of Cereal in Southern Somalia, 1998–2016 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 Metric tonnes 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sorghum Maize Total Cereal Source: FSNAU. Note: Annual figures include midyear Gu harvests and end-of-year Deyr harvests (of January of following year). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 91 6. The Crop Subsector Sorghum yields are also low, at about 0.3 tons per Yield increases of up to 30 percent for the hybrid hectare, with interannual variations from just below variety were achieved, even in the most recent 2017 0.2 tons to 0.4 tons per hectare. These low yields Gu season, despite the still below-normal rainfall. reflect poor access to good-quality inputs and the The hybrid produced 7.3 tons per hectare, 30 percent widespread use of low-yielding varieties. more than the local variety, which produced 5.6 tons per hectare. This result strongly suggests that Even under rainfed cultivation in southern Somalia, using adequate irrigation techniques and other when appropriate and quality inputs are used good agriculture practices can increase yields of average yields can easily reach 2.5 tons per hectare even local varieties by a factor of five (while using for maize and 1 ton per hectare for sorghum, (as better seeds could increase yields sevenfold). they have in various FAO-supported projects). The experiment confirms studies the Somali The Somali Agriculture Technical Group recently Agriculture Technical Group (SATG) conducted in conducted tests at its research station in the Afgoi 2014/15 comparing the performance of CIMMYT area (Lower Shabelle) to compare a hybrid variety maize hybrids with local varieties. with locally grown maize under irrigated conditions. Figure 6.9: Cereal Yields in Southern Somalia, 1998–2016 0.90 0.80 0.70 Yield (tons per hectare) 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Maize Sorghum Source: FSNAU. Note: Annual figures include midyear Gu harvests and end-of-year Deyr harvests (of January of following year). Figure 6.10: Production of Cereal in Somaliland, 1998–2016 80,000 70,000 60,000 Metric tonnes 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sorghum Maize Total Cereal Source: FSNAU. Note: Annual figures include midyear Gu harvests and end-of-year Deyr harvests (of January of following year). 92 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector Sorghum is the largest cereal crop in Somaliland. Sesame production reached prewar peak Average annual production is less than 8,000 tons, production levels of about 57,000 tons in 1982 and with a peak of 11,523 tons in 2014 (figure 6.10).73 1985 before falling back to 45,000–50,000 tons in In recent years, production levels have fluctuated 1989–90, just before the start of the civil war (figure with agro-climatic conditions, from a high of 64,652 6.12). Following a virtual collapse in the early 1990s, tons in 2012 to a low of 7,045 tons in 2015, when production volumes reached a peak of 38,133 tons the northwestern regions suffered from a very severe in 2013, before falling back to 35,584 tons in 2014 drought. In 2016, better rains allowed a recovery of and 28,640 in 2015, according to the FSNAU. SATG output to 34,620 tons. Annual yields for sorghum estimates that production reached 60,000 tons fluctuated between 1.0 ton per hectare in 2012 and by 2014, surpassing peak production levels of the 0.4 tons per hectare in 2015 (figure 6.11). 1980s, with 15,000 tons (about a quarter of output) exported (SATG 2015). It estimates the value of such 6.2.2 Sesame Production and Exports production at about $300 million. In sharp contrast to the drop in cereal production, sesame seed production and exports appear to Yields range from a high of about 0.6 tons per be on the upswing and to have surpassed their hectare in Beer to about 0.35 tons per hectare in peak prewar levels. About 80 percent of sesame Afgoye; the average for irrigated sesame, including production takes place in the Lower and Middle small and large farms, is about 0.4 tons per hectare, Shabelle and in the Middle Juba, with much smaller, which is comparable to yields in Ethiopia. These low localized production in the northwestern part of yields stem mainly from a lack of good-quality seeds Somaliland. Sesame is well adapted to the geographic (farmers using own local saved seeds), endemic and climatic conditions of these regions. pests and diseases (especially armyworm), and poor crop management practices. With only slight Estimates of the number of sesame farmers range improvements in the irrigation system, seed quality, from 150,000 to 250,000. Most are smallholders, pest management, and related gaps, Somali farmers with an average of 1–2.5 hectares and yields of just have demonstrated that they can increase sesame 0.2 tons per hectare under rainfed conditions and yields to 1.5 ton per hectare or almost four times 5–8 hectares and 0.4 tons per hectare in irrigated (FAO 2016c). areas (UNDP and SATG 2016b). Figure 6.11: Maize and Sorghum Yields in Somaliland, 1998–2016 1.2 1.0 Yield (tons per hectare) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Maize Sorghum Source: FSNAU. Note: Data for Somaliland are available only since 1998. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 93 6. The Crop Subsector Figure 6.12: Production of Sesame in Somalia, 1961–2017 60,000 50,000 40,000 Metric tons 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017* FAOSTAT FSNAU Source: FAOSTAT data are based on national accounts through 1988. Figures for 2016 and 2017 were estimated for the Drought Impact Needs Assessment (FGS 2017a). The export value of oil seeds from Somalia was In 1990, on the eve of the overthrow of the Siad $81.2 million in 2014, according to UN COMTRADE Barre regime, bananas were the largest export crop data based on partner country imports.74 Annual (with exports of $34.5 million a year). The subsector exports averaged about $40 million in 2011–14, 10– was the largest employer in Somalia, directly or 20 times higher than the $1.8 million recorded in the indirectly supporting about 120,000 jobs. There were late 1980s and the $4.2 million recorded in the early 141 farms in the Somalfruit supply network, ranging 1990s. Exports of $34.3 in 2015 appear to have fallen in size from 40 to 300 hectares. These farms also by almost 58 percent from the previous year and by produced grapefruit, watermelon, citrus, and other about 14 percent compared with the previous four- food crops for local consumption, increasing the year average. country’s food security. There are several sesame exporters in Mogadishu. The size of the area cultivated with bananas The main markets are India, Turkey, Jordan, and Saudi (and associated fruits, such as grapefruit and Arabia. The most important exporter, with about watermelon) is believed to have remained about 11,000 tons exported in 2014, is Al-Mizan, which has the same between the early 1970s and the late also entered other markets, including the Netherlands, 1980s, at about 9,000 hectares. Sixty percent was India, China, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Germany, and the United located in the Lower Shabelle region and 10 percent Kingdom. Other exporters include the Moumim Group, was located in the Middle Shabelle regions, mostly Horn of Africa Trading, and Danwadaag. under gravity irrigation; 20 percent was located in the Lower Juba, under pump irrigation. Both the Lower 6.2.3 Banana Production and Exports Juba and the Shabelle regions had good alluvial Somalia used to be the largest banana exporter in soils, reasonably developed irrigation, drainage and East Africa. Its main export markets were Italy (to flood control systems, and road infrastructure that which exports began in 1927) and Middle Eastern linked them to the ports of Kismayo and Mogadishu, countries. Its bananas were highly prized for their respectively. The export competitiveness of these taste; they also benefited from preferential access to fruits was facilitated by these ports’ location along the Italian market. major trade routes to the Gulf and beyond. 94 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector Production was vertically integrated and carried 20 tons per hectare in the early 1970s and about 12 out by both medium-size and large private farms tons per hectare in the late 1980s are well below that supplied their output to (and were supported the range of 35–45 tons per hectare sector experts technically and financially by) Somalfruit, a joint and banana farmers believe was the average before marketing company co-owned by the government the war. Although the prewar official figures include but controlled by Italian and Saudi investors; banana exports, they most likely excluded much plantation owners and the government held and possibly all of the crop marketed to domestic minority shares in the company. Average yields were consumers in some years. The prewar time series about 25–30 tons per hectare, significantly lower thus suffer from both chronic underreporting of total than the more than 40 tons per hectare achieved in crop production and from inconsistency in the extent other countries. Limited areas of ideal soils, strong of such underreporting. A more realistic, albeit very winds, high evapotranspiration rates, and flooding rough, point estimate of annual banana production in were some of the factors responsible for these the late 1980s is about 360,000 tons, of which about lower yields. Exports of Somali bananas and minor a third was exported.75 In earlier years, when banana quantities of other fruits peaked in 1990 at about exports were managed by state agencies, production $34.5 million (the 1986–90 annual average was was probably considerably lower. about $28.2 million). The first and most destructive phase of the civil Prewar statistical estimates of production from war, in the early 1990s, hit the banana subsector FAOSTAT and the Somalia National Accounts are very hard. Between 1994 and 1998, there was a inconsistent and implausible (figure 6.13). They modest rebound in banana production and exports, show a major decline in production between the with annual output reaching about 80,000 tons, with early 1970s (peaking at 188,500 tons in 1972) and the a value of about $14.5 million in 1997, of which 65 late 1980s (peaking at 115,200 tons in 1989), when percent was exported to Gulf countries (SWALIM banana exports were managed by Somalfruit, with and FAO 2007d). Banana exports ceased completely an efficient and vertically integrated outgrowers’ in 1999, as a result of El-Niño floods and the loss network, and total output is believed to peaked. The of preferential access to European markets, among implicit annual yields (official production estimates other factors. They resumed after 2008, with small divided by the known area under cultivation) of about test shipments through containers to some Gulf Figure 6.13: Production of Bananas in Somalia, 1961–90 and 2015–16/17 200,000 180,000 160,000 148,890 140,000 Metric tonnes 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 48,367 20,000 0 0 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 2015 2016/17 Source: Data for 1977–88 are from Somalia National Accounts; data for 1961–76 and 1989–90 are from FAOSTAT data. FAOSTAT estimates for 1991–2014 are not shown, because they are inconsistent and unreliable. Data for 2015–17 are from the Drought Impact Needs Assessment (FGS 2017a). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 95 6. The Crop Subsector countries. Customs-based statistics from partner occurred on land that was previously forested or countries show export values of $148,000 in 2014 devoted to other crops. The smaller number of and $571,000 in 2015, but virtually all such shipments farmers on the much smaller area of land currently were rejected by buyers because of unsatisfactory under banana cultivation have shown remarkable quality, and Somali exporters were almost never paid capacity to adapt and to address both the security for them.76 challenges and the infrastructural challenges that have weighed on the entire agricultural sector for the Based on local expert knowledge and remote last three decades. That they have been producing sensing, the area under banana cultivation in the about 41 percent of the prewar output on only 24 regions along the two major rivers in the years just percent of the prewar land cultivated with banana before the recent drought was estimated at about is indeed a powerful indication of their resilience 2,135 hectares. Annual average yields are believed (at least until the recent drought) and improved to be 74 tons per hectare in the Lower Shabelle and productive efficiency. 50 tons per hectare in the Juba valley. These yields compare well with those of Indian states (in the 18- 6.2.4 Expansion of Other Horticulture 85 ton per hectare range), where bananas are also Before 1990, producers in the Lower Jubba and mainly for domestic consumption.77 Based on these Middle Shabelle refined sugarcane and processed two data points, the recent predrought production cotton for the domestic market (box 6.1). Other level was estimated at 148,890 tons, almost 72 enterprises included a tomato paste factory and a percent of which was grown in the Lower Shabelle seed multiplication and processing industry in Afgoi region, on about 1,535 hectares (Somalia 2018) (see in the Lower Shabelle, a grain flour mill factory in figure 6.13). The much lower level of 48,367 tons Mogadishu, and the frankincense and myrrh export shown in figure 6.13 for 2016/17 reflects the negative monopoly in Somaliland and Puntland. All of these impact of the drought during the Deyr 2016 and Gu enterprises were majority state owned and, except 2017 seasons and the drying of the Shabelle River for the banana export company (Somalfruit), state between the two seasons. Given the data challenges, controlled or managed. however, and the uncertainty over the robustness of even the most recent estimates, further investigation There are few studies and limited quantitative and assessments (with both remote sensing and field information on horticulture production, but surveys) are required to estimate banana production. anecdotal observations suggest rapidly growing production in southern Somalia, in the Some of the old commercial plantations have northwestern region of Somaliland, and on oasis ceased production; others have switched to other farms even in Puntland. Most of these enterprises fruits, such as lemon, or other crops. Production on serve the domestic market, which is much larger than these farms is inefficient, because they are occupied it was before the war. Nationwide estimates of the by people from different parts of the country who output of the main three vegetables (watermelon, lack infrastructure, machinery, and knowledge of tomato, and onion) just before the recent drought are irrigation and plant management. much higher than at any time in the dozen years before the war.78 Output of grapefruit and lemon/limes is 89 Despite many challenges, growing bananas for percent of that recorded at its peak in 1988 (table 6.2). domestic consumption is very profitable in southern No historical comparison is possible for other produce, Somalia. New investment in banana cultivation has because of lack disaggregated data before the war. 96 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector Box 6.1: Thriving Processing of Sugarcane and Cotton in Somalia before the War Sugarcane In 1920, Società Agricola Italo-Somala (SAIS) built a sugarcane plantation and annexed a processing factory in Jowhar, in the Middle Shabelle. In 1950, the sugar factory’s output reached 4,000 tons, enough to meet about 80 percent of domestic demand. By 1957, production reached 11,000 tons. Following Somali independence, in 1960, the government took a controlling interest in the estate and formed a new company to operate the scheme, Società Nazionale Agricola Industriale (SNAI). In 1963, a major sugar production expansion program started in both the field and the factory with the object of making Somalia self-sufficient in sugar. Cropped area increased from 4,000 hectares in 1963 to more than 14,000 hectares in 1967. A new factory was built in 1965, with annual capacity of 40,000 tons, replacing the old factory, which had a capacity of 12,000 tons. The sugar price increase in 1974 prompted mobilization of resources from various international donors and technical expertise from the United Kingdom to clear new land for sugarcane plantation and build a second sugar processing factory in the Lower Juba. When the project design was approved, in 1975, $188 million was allocated (Worrall 1980). State-of-the-art technologies, such as overhead and drip irrigation systems, were installed, and precision- guided equipment for land preparation was used. The plant was built by a British engineering firm (Wimpey and Mowlem) and managed by another British company (Booker Agriculture International Ltd., which has sugar projects all over the world. Intensive training on sugar production and processing was conducted for local staff. The project also paved new roads, constructed housing facilities, and created employment opportunities for large sections of the community. All sugarcane production and processing infrastructure as well the farm machineries in Mareerey and Jowhar were looted during the civil war. No sugarcane production takes place in Somalia, and neither the private sector nor donor agencies have shown interest in reviving this sector. Unlike bananas, the sugarcane sector requires huge investment. Even if it could make such investment, Somalia would probably not be able to compete with Brazil. Cotton Cotton production and processing began in 1920. Investment in cotton bore fewer long-term results than investment in bananas or sugarcane. Cotton showed some promise through the late 1920s, but its price fell following the collapse in the world market. The nearly 1,400 tons in exports by 1929 shrank to about 400 tons by 1937. During the Italian trusteeship period, there were years of modest success. In 1952, for example, about 1,000 tons of cotton were exported. Growth was consistent, however. In 1953, for example, exports dropped by two-thirds. An unstable world market and the scarcity of Somali wage laborers available for cotton harvesting doomed cotton as an export crop. To deal with labor scarcity, Italian traders worked out co-participation contracts with Somali farmers; the Italians received sole purchasing rights to the crop in return for providing seed, cash advances, and technical support. Somalia’s two cotton factories continued operations after independence, reaching production levels of about 15 million yards of cloth annually and employing 3,000 workers. In 1972, after the nationalization of all agro-processing industries, the Siad Barre regime introduced a mandatory system for all students in Somalia that boosted the outputs and profits of these two factories. Elementary and high school students as well as military personnel had to wear locally sewn uniforms from cloth materials produced by local cotton factories. Given the ideal climate for cotton plantations in Balad, after their upgrade and expansion in the early 1970s, the state-owned textile plants (Balad Textile Factory and Somalitex) were able to supply virtually the entire domestic market. Somalitex in the 1970s was considered among the best-equipped textile plants in Africa. Most shops stocked the traditional Somali sarong-like garments (futas). After the start of the civil war, the plants were looted, and both cotton production and related cotton processing came to a stop. Today, there is no interest in reviving the sector. Small-scale farmers in Balad have reclaimed the land that was once used for growing cotton for the production of maize, sesame, and vegetable crops. The few machines that remain at the looted cotton factory in Balad are too old and damaged to operate. Source: Hussein (2017). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 97 6. The Crop Subsector Domestic demand for higher-value agricultural 6.3 Prices, Marketing, and the Impact of products, such as fruits and vegetables, is high and the Recent Drought expected to grow substantially thanks to population growth, urbanization, and improvement in standards 6.3.1 Sorghum and Maize Prices and Marketing of living. Somaliland is estimated to import 61,000– The Lower Shabelle and Bay regions account for 95,000 tons of fruits and vegetables annually from 70 percent of maize and sorghum production in Ethiopia alone, with about the same volumes sourced Southern Somalia. Baidoa (Bay region) is the main sorghum-trading hub in Somalia (ILO 2013). Maize from southern Somalia (USAID 2014). Southern markets are located in the Shabelle Valley, the Juba Somalia exports dry lemons to Gulf countries (the Valley, and along the coast (Jowhar, W. Wayne, Buale, quantities are not known). In Somaliland, Borama Mogadishu, Qorioley, Merca, Kismayo, Jamaame, and and, to a lesser extent, Allaybade have favorable Jilib). Price transmission across the country is high, climate for vegetable and fruit production and are paralleling the high degree of market integration. located close to Djibouti, which has high demand for fruit and vegetables. This export opportunity Seasonal price variability is high for both sorghum is not being seized, with only small quantities of and maize. The production of cereals remains acutely watermelons sold to Djibouti traders (FAO 2016c). sensitive to seasonal fluctuations and weather There are, nonetheless, various promising starts of patterns (more so for sorghum than for maize). new horticulture crops and processing ventures, as Because there are few modern grain storage facilities well as, strong growth prospects in this subsector in Somalia, between the two harvest seasons the (box 6.2). supply of grains is not able to meet the demand and prices spike. After the harvests, the market is flooded with local grains and prices drop. Table 6.2: Gross Production of Vegetables and Fruits by Somalia, 1977–2017 2015 2016-17 1977-80 1981-84 1985 1986 1987 1988 (Pre- (Drought) Drought) \a \a Vegetables\b 26,600 30,100 40,800 48,300 52,500 54,600 97,025 15,632 Watermelon 30,000 7,904 Tomatoes 59,023 7,143 Onions 8,002 585 Other - - Grapefruit and Lime 9,650 10,275 10,900 13,100 27,300 34,600 30,648 14,376 Banana\c 68,500 72,200 60,000 93,900 108,000 115,200 148,890 48,367 Other Fruits\d 88,250 96,750 100,000 113,000 125,400 14,767 3,425 135,000 Papaya 8,000 3,025 Dates 6,767 400 Other - - Total Horticulture Production 193,000 209,325 211,700 268,300 313,200 291,330 81,800 339,400 Source: Central Statistical Department, Ministry of Planning, Somalia 1989 and Drought Impact Needs Assessment (FGS 2017a). Notes: \a The 2015 and 2016–17 figures are point estimates agreed upon by federal and state governments, the FAO, and the World Bank for the Drought Impact Needs Assessment (Somalia 2018). The 2016–17 figures refer only to the drought period of October 2016–September 2017. \b The vegetable estimate in the 1977–88 national accounts is an aggregate that includes watermelon, tomatoes, onions, carrots, and other vegetables. The total for 2015–17 covers only watermelon, tomatoes, and onions. \c The estimate for bananas for 1977–88 is the same in the national accounts and in FAOSTAT, but both figures are probably underreported. \d The estimate for other fruits in the 1977–88 national accounts is an aggregate that includes mangoes, papaya, coconuts, dates, guava, oranges, and other fruits. 98 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector Box 6.2: Promising New Crops and Processing Ventures for Somalia Since the reestablishment of peace and security in the northern regions in the 1990s and the abatement of the civil war in the Southern regions in the early 2000s, various new agro-processing industries have emerged. The major ones are the sesame and dry lemon industries in Mogadishu, which have seen thriving production, processing, and export in recent years. Others include two fruit juice processing and packaging plants in Somaliland, a locally owned plant in Hargeisa that extracts juice from guavas purchased from southern Somalia, and a foreign-owned company in Burao. A food grain processing company (Blue Flag) started operations in Mogadishu with an investment of more than $5 million and a processing capacity of 22,000 tons a year. Nearby, a new seed-processing facility (owned by Filsan Inc.) was established, with the aim of producing good-quality seeds. It has a capacity of 500 kilograms an hour (see table H.2 in appendix H). Lemon production has increased to the point that (processed) dry lemons are now exported. Foreign demand well outpaces Somalia’s still limited production, suggesting room for growth. No information is available on the total area under lemon production in Somalia, but the SATG estimates annual domestic and export revenues from lemons at $200 million in 2014. Most processors are in Mogadishu, because the city offers proximity to both growers in the Shabelle basin and port facilities. There are about 300 sesame oil microprocessors in Mogadishu alone, but they operate with old machines that can produce just 100 liters of oil a day (UNDP and SATG 2016b), and the machines’ filtering system does not produce high-quality oil. There appears to be a missed opportunity for the private sector to invest in high-quality sorting/cleaning machines with high processing capacity to satisfy market needs. Doing so would help increase oil production capacity for local consumption and exports while lowering maintenance costs. Most processed crop exports are shipped to Dubai for further processing, repackaging, and resale under different trade names (sesame exports are also shipped to India). As of mid-2016, all crop-processing companies were planning to increase production, most by more than 20 percent in the short term, according to a survey conducted for this report [see appendix H]). Some donors, including USAID and DFID, are supporting their expansion potential. USAID is helping 25 crop companies expand their production. The major constraints to operations and expansion, according to the companies, are lack of credit (mainly because of the lack of commercial banks), limited technical knowledge, poor storage and transport infrastructure, thin markets, and a very weak enabling environment with regard to both security and government policies and regulations. Addressing these constraints is crucial to unlocking the potential of both old and new crop-processing opportunities in Somalia. Source: Hussein (2017). Prices fluctuate widely (figures 6.14). In 2008, for 10 drought). Prices have fluctuated widely ever since. instance, cereal prices in U.S. dollars rose dramatically In anticipation of reduced crop production as a result in both the Southern and the northern regions. They of the drought, prices started rising again at the start more than doubled in Southern Somalia and rose of the Gu 2016 season, with a small dip at the Gu more than threefold in Somaliland. After a couple of 2017 harvest time. In Somaliland, prices fluctuated years of relative price stability in Southern Somalia, until 2013. prices increased again in 2011 (following the 2009– Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 99 6. The Crop Subsector Figure 6.14: Cereal Prices in Southern Somalia and Somaliland, 2000–17 a. Southern Somalia 0.7 0.6 0.5 Dollars per kilogram 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Jan-00 Aug-00 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jul-03 Feb-04 Sep-04 Apr-05 Nov-05 Jun-06 Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 May-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 May-16 Dec-16 Jul-17 Red sorghum White maize b. Somaliland 1.8 1.6 1.4 Dollars per kilogram 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Red sorghum White maize Source: FSNAU. 6.3.2 Sesame Prices and Marketing Local buying and selling prices are highly correlated Sesame prices are highly dependent on the with market prices (table 6.3). Prices of sesame international market, and sesame production is seeds in Somalia also vary according to their quality highly responsive to market prices. International (the fullness of the grain), which is determined by the prices increased continuously between 2005 and availability of water during the germination period. 2013, reaching a peak of $1,700 per ton in 2013. In 2013, the estimated production cost was $0.60 per Three main factors determine the price of sesame kilogram and the farm-gate price was $1.51 (UNDP oil in Somalia: market demand, the cost of the and SATG 2016b). seed, and processing costs. Until 2008, prices for local sesame oil closely tracked those of imported Between 2005 and 2013, sesame production in vegetable oil (figure 6.15). In 2008 and again in Somalia tripled, from 20,000 tons to 60,000 tons. 2011, the sharp increases in world prices for sesame Subsequent price declines resulted in a significant seeds resulted in corresponding increases in the reduction of production. The average farm-gate price price and volumes exported of local sesame and dropped to $0.70 in 2015. reduced the availability of seed for local sesame 100 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector Figure 6.15: Prices of Sesame and Vegetable Oil in Southern Somalia and Somaliland, 2000–17 a. Southern Somalia 4.0 3.5 3.0 Dollars per liter 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan - 00 Aug - 00 Mar - 01 Oct - 01 May - 02 Dec - 02 Jul - 03 Feb - 04 Sep - 04 Apr - 05 Nov - 05 Jun - 06 Jan - 07 Aug - 07 Mar - 08 Oct - 08 May - 09 Dec - 09 Jul - 10 Feb - 11 Sep - 11 Apr - 12 Nov - 12 Jun - 13 Jan - 14 Aug - 14 Mar - 15 Oct - 15 May - 16 Dec - 16 Jul - 17 Local sesame oil Vegetable oil b. Somaliland 14 12 10 Dollars per liter 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Local sesame oil Vegetable oil Source: FSNAU database. Table 6.3: World Price and Wholesale Prices of Sesame in Middle Shabelle, 2011–15 Wholesale price in Middle Shabelle World price (dollars per kilogram) Year (dollars per ton) Purchase price Selling price 2011 1,000 1 2 2012 1,200 1 2 2013 1,700 1 2 2014 1,550 1 1 2015 - 1 1 Source: UNDP and SATG 2016b. Note: — Not available. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 101 6. The Crop Subsector oil production. As a result, the price of local sesame The greatest economic impact of the drought has oil in Southern Somalia reached almost $3.63 a liter been production losses arising from both reduced in 2014, $2 above the price of imported vegetable land area under cultivation and greatly reduced oil. Only after the 2014–15 world (and local) price yields at harvest. The drought had the greatest declines did the price of sesame oil fall back. The impact on rainfed staple food crops (mainly sorghum, new price of about $2.22 was still almost 71 percent cowpeas, and some rainfed sesame) in the inter- higher than imported vegetable oil. The effect of riverine regions of Bay and Bokool, which suffered the drought on local seeds supply caused sesame oil from lack of rains in multiple seasons, starting in prices to rise again at the start of the Gu 2016 season. early 2016, and on irrigated crops in the Shabelle By the end of the Gu 2017 season, the price reached valley regions (mainly maize, most sesame, and rice, $2.53 a liter. bananas, and tomatoes, among other crops), which suffered from the double whammy of lack of rains 6.3.3 Impact of the 2016/17 Drought on Crops and a drying river. (Source: Somalia 2018) Following a very severe drought spell in the Including the less affected northwestern regions, northern regions during 2015 and three seasons of volume losses are estimated at 83 percent for below-average rains in the Southern regions, the sesame, 59 percent for cowpeas, 50 percent for drought reached its peak during the Deyr (October– sorghum, and 34 percent for maize. Physical losses December) 2016 growing season and persisted of more than 90 percent for at least one of these through March 2017. On top of much reduced river four major staple food crops were experienced by flows, it caused major damage and losses to both the Middle Shabelle, Gedo, Mudug, Middle Juba, and rainfed and irrigated crops, especially shallow-rooted Hiraan regions. In the rainfed inter-riverine regions of banana.79 Even during the 2017 Gu (April–June) Bay and Bokool, losses were as high as 84 percent for growing season, many parts of the country received sesame, 73 percent for sorghum, and 52 percent for below-average, sporadic, and scattered rainfall. In maize. The regions along the Shabelle experienced contrast, the northwestern regions of Somaliland losses for these three crops of 36–80 percent. received almost normal rains and thus experienced growth of both pasture and crop production following The monetary loss of output for the four main very poor performance in 2015. staple food crops has been estimated at $71 million: $35 million for maize and sorghum combined, $28 The drought caused substantial damage. About $11 million for sesame, and $9 million for cowpeas (see million in damages to the irrigation canals has been table 1 of the Overview to this report). The Bay attributed to the drought in the Shabelle and Juba and Lower Shabelle regions experienced the largest valleys, as thirsty and desperate livestock climbed absolute monetary losses, at $23 million each (a 74 over canal walls and nearby soil and sand was blown percent decline from the baseline in the Bay region into the canal beds. The cumulative deterioration and a 54 percent decline in the Lower Shabelle). of the irrigation system since 1990 has meant that As a result of earlier drought conditions, farmers in a large proportion of the previously irrigated land the northwestern and Southern regions had already is now rainfed, with much lower yields and thus incurred substantial monetary losses. substantial production losses. Most banana trees along the drying Shabelle River could not survive the Physical and monetary losses were also very large lack of water. Damage to these trees is estimated at for other crops, including fruits, vegetables, and $53 million. Total drought-related damage is thus frankincense. For fruits, physical output losses range estimated at $64 million. from 48 percent for lemons to 94 percent for dates; 102 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector banana production fell 68 percent. For vegetables, recording 93 percent losses, Mudug 78 percent, losses are 88–93 percent. Rice, which is grown and Bay 75 percent. Losses in the Lower and Middle only around Jowhar, in the Middle Shabelle region, Shabelle regions were 74 percent and 68 percent, recorded a loss of 60 percent through mid-2017. The respectively. In the Juba valley, losses were smaller loss for frankincense, grown in the Bari and Sanaag but still substantial, ranging from 30 percent in the regions, is estimated at 17 percent. Gedo region to 54 percent in the Middle Juba region. These losses total $176.5 million, equivalent to 57 In absolute terms, the region most affected was percent of the estimated baseline production value the Lower Shabelle, which recorded a $94.6 million for these other crops (table 6.4). In percentage loss, almost half of it from bananas and the rest terms, the regions most affected are in the northeast from other fruits and vegetables. The northeastern and central zones, with Nugaal and Galguduud Bari region came a distant second, with a $23.8 Table 6.4: Estimated Damages and Losses to Crops from the 2016/17 Drought Baseline Asset/ Public Damages & Private Damages & Total Damages & Production Losses Losses Losses Damages and Losses Values US$, Million US$, Percent US$, Percent US$, Percent Million (of Million (of Million (of Baseline) Baseline) Baseline) Damages to Irrigation Infrastructure 109.0 10.9 10% 10.9 10% Damages to Banana Trees 85.4 52.9 62% 52.9 62% Losses for Sorghum 47.6 22.1 46% 22.1 46% Losses for Maize 35.4 12.4 35% 12.4 35% Losses for Sesame 33.3 27.5 83% 27.5 83% Losses for Cowpeas 15.4 9.2 59% 9.2 59% Losses for Rice 3.0 1.8 60% 1.8 60% Losses for Legumes 0.6 0.4 62% 0.4 62% Losses for Banana 82.3 55.4 67% 55.4 67% Losses for Lemon 6.0 2.9 49% 2.9 49% Losses for Grapefruit 19.7 10.8 55% 10.8 55% Losses for Papaya 23.1 14.5 63% 14.5 63% Losses for Watermelon 31.5 23.7 75% 23.7 75% Losses for Dates 12.2 11.4 94% 11.4 94% Losses for Tomatoes 41.0 36.7 89% 36.7 89% Losses for Onions 4.6 4.2 93% 4.2 93% Losses for Frankincense (Boswellia) 87.6 14.6 17% 14.6 17% Total Damages and Losses 637.7 10.9 2% 300.5 47% 311.4 49% of which: Total Damages 194.4 10.9 6% 52.9 27% 63.8 33% of which: Total losses 443.3 - 247.7 56% 247.7 56% of which: Main staple Food Losses 131.7 - 71.2 54% 71.2 54% of which: Other Crop Losses 311.6 - 176.5 57% 176.5 57% of which: Fruits, except Bananas 92.5 - 63.4 69% 63.4 69% of which: Vegetables 45.6 - 40.9 90% 40.9 90% Source: Somalia 2018. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 103 6. The Crop Subsector million loss, which reflects heavy losses of dates 6.4 Growth Opportunities and Prospects and vegetables and small losses of frankincense. for Crops The Middle Shabelle and the Middle Juba also suffered large absolute losses, of $14.1 million and 6.4.1 Opportunities and Prospects for Irrigated 11.8 million, respectively. The northcentral region Crops of Sanaag lost $8.8 million, all of it in frankincense Despite the heavy losses from the recent drought production. The inter-riverine southern region of Bay and the many challenges the subsector faces, recorded a $7.6 million loss. crops remains both viable and critical to economic recovery and long-term development. Somalia still The severe economic impact of the drought has large and partly unexploited areas with fertile on Somalia’s crop subsector—its second-most alluvial soils for staple cereals, oil seeds, legumes, important source of economic activity, employment, and horticulture crops that can support both more efficient production and expanded cultivated area and exports—has been unprecedented. Aggregate for both domestic and export markets. Widespread production losses are estimated at $176.5, and total adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices damages to assets are estimated at $63.8 million, would increase both resilience and growth for key representing almost 4 percent of the country’s 2016 rainfed crops, for which both yields and total area nominal GDP (estimated at $6.2 billion by the IMF under cultivation could be doubled or even tripled, and the World Bank). as discussed above. As a result of the drought, by early 2017, more The trend in staple food crop production, imports, than 1.6 million people had exhausted their cereal and food aid as well as the collapse in banana stocks and become heavily dependent on markets production and exports should ring a loud alarm bell (with cash purchases funded with remittances) and to governments and their international development international aid for food. Many rural people left partners that it is time to take urgent measures to their homes in search of alternative sources of food and revive both subsectors. Somalia has much room for water; between November 2016 and mid-2017, about expanded production of irrigated cereals, oilseeds, 444,000 people were internally displaced. The drying of and fruits and vegetables, despite the institutional, the Shabelle River during December 2016–March 2017 human resource, environmental, and climate change also caused a major displacement of riverine farming challenges discussed in chapters 3 and 4. For farmers communities. Female-headed small-scale farming to place more land under cultivation and increase households were hardest hit by the drought. productivity, improvements to the country’s flood control and irrigation infrastructure, seed quality, Intensification of conflict over agricultural land, pest management, and related good agricultural pasture, and water resources among agro- practices are needed. All such improvements require pastoralists who remained on their lands, people stronger security in rural areas of southern Somalia, returning after months of displacement, and others supportive and efficient public institutions, and has been recorded. Most farmers fleeing irrigated engaged international development partners. areas are expected to return to their fields once river flows return to normal. In contrast, many farmers In Southern Somalia, the high-potential cultivable under rainfed conditions may seek new employment area under irrigation was estimated in 2012, opportunities in urban areas, where it is easier to through remote-sensing methods, at 591,325 access both aid and remittances. hectares (figure 6.5). Most of this land is in the Shabelle River basin (475,620 hectares), but some 104 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector of it is in the Juba River basin (115,075 hectares) year), if land under cultivation and its productivity (SWALIM and FAO 2012c).80 This estimate of the high- were expanded through improvements in flood potential cultivable area under irrigation is 5.3 times control and irrigation infrastructure, use of the currently irrigated area in the Shabelle and Juba improved varieties, and good agricultural and water basins (110,800 hectares) and 2.6 times the prewar management practices. Experience from ongoing irrigated area (222,950 hectares).81 Less than a fifth FAO projects has already demonstrated that maize of this high-potential area is cultivated, because crop yields can be improved by 50–100 percent much of the flood control, irrigation, and transport with emergency interventions solely focused on infrastructure is either not functioning or in a very inputs (improved seeds, more hours of irrigation, poor state, as a result of direct damage inflicted mechanized labor, and training on good agricultural during the civil war or lack of security.82 practices). Maize quality would also benefit from better postharvest management practices, such Despite the postwar collapse of irrigation as improved drying conditions, storage facilities, infrastructure, 70 percent of the country’s national and pest control. The FAO pilot project “Support to cereal production still takes place in the Shabelle Somali Farmers: Achieving Quality Farm Produce for and Juba River basins, mainly by small-scale farmers Better Market Access” increased yields and quality (Basnyat 2007). Recession flood agriculture is totally so much that beneficiary small-scale farmers were dependent upon flooding patterns and often leads able to sell 200 tons of their maize to the World Food to the destruction of crops by unexpected additional Programme. It should be scaled up and replicated. flooding arising from breakage and failure levels. It offers huge opportunities, however, because it is a The sesame subsector also has a high potential for low-cost, low-input system that is less sensitive than increased production (of seeds) and value addition. an irrigation system to security risks. Somalia could increase production of sesame oil for domestic human consumption; produce more Maize production, mainly for human consumption sesame cakes, which are added to poultry and but eventually also for livestock feed, could easily animal feed mixes; and begin exporting both. Doing recover its prewar levels (of about 350,000 tons a so requires investments in four main areas: Table 6.5: Area under Irrigation in the Shabelle and Juba River Basins (Hectares) Irrigated/flood-recession areas Area irrigated over a four- River basin year period, including half Prewar Current of fallow fields Shabelle Lower Shabelle 321,495 Middle Shabelle 73,028 Upper Shabelle (Hiran) 81,097 Subtotal 475,620 Juba Lower Juba 41,897 Middle Juba 32,424 Upper Juba (Gedo, Bay, Bakool) 41,384 Subtotal 115,705 TOTAL 135,855 135,855 591,325 Source: SWALIM and FAO 2012c. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 105 6. The Crop Subsector • public investment in quality control measures Expansion of banana production—albeit to levels for certified seeds and other farming supplies that are lower than they were before the war—is a • public investment in the collection and realistic and desirable goal. The federal and regional dissemination of information on market prices governments, local communities, and donors need • public investment in extension services, to rehabilitate critical public infrastructure. The especially in support of small-scale trading private sector needs to invest in improved input and oil-processing cooperatives traditionally supplies, packaging cartons, food processing of dominated by women dried bananas, more efficient shipping, and new boreholes to strengthen resilience to droughts • private investments in small and medium-size and river drying. Further analysis of the sector’s oil-processing units and in storage and packaging international competitiveness and profitability facilities. is required to assess whether further expansion As peace and security have slowly returned to beyond prewar levels and into export markets more and more areas along the two main rivers in outside the Middle East is economically and Southern Somalia, the revival of banana production environmentally sound and sustainable. has been picking up, albeit modestly, without any (or with minimal) direct or indirect government and Other labor-intensive horticulture also has good external support. The potential for expanded banana potential for growth. The realization that it can production remains large, because the sector can generate higher revenues and income per unit of land rely on several strengths: technical know-how among than traditional crops has already drawn considerable local farmers, including returning internally displaced interest from Somali investors, including from the people; good soil and water quality; the need for diaspora. Recent initiatives include wind and solar only minimum supplementary fertilizer; and highly installations for pumping water and providing drip disease-resistant trees. Unlike before the civil war, irrigation for fruits and vegetables, the processing of when bananas were shipped from the riverine areas tomato paste and ketchup for the domestic market, to towns all over the country, bananas have become and the export of grapefruit to Turkey (USAID 2014). a luxury item for most domestic consumers, because Public interventions in support of this subsector’s of poor roads and storage facilities, which result in growth and employment potential should focus much spoilage and high prices far from producing on improving input supply with certified seeds, areas. The potential for expansion just to meet establishing a food safety certification system for domestic demand therefore remains large. It could export, and addressing policy constraints, in addition be realized by building reliable transport, storage, to improving transport infrastructure and security. and logistical networks. Even in the northern regions, which are much There is also a high potential for the expansion drier but also better connected and more secure of banana sales to Middle Eastern markets (Baars than the southern regions, production of irrigated and Riediger 2007a, 2007b). According to consumer fruit orchards and vegetable farms could double surveys conducted in Iran and the United Arab if irrigation infrastructure improved and water Emirates, the quality of Somali bananas ranks even management systems were more efficient. Even with (and their taste is actually preferred to) bananas greater gains could be achieved by adopting improved imported from Central America under major brand production techniques, including the replacement of names. Moreover, Somalia is much closer to Middle unproductive and old trees with improved cultivars Eastern main ports and can thus provide fresher from cloned material, better tree management fruits at lower transport cost. practices, and intercropping with vegetables. 106 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 6. The Crop Subsector 6.4.2 Opportunities and Prospects for Rainfed • intercropping with nitrogen-fixing legumes Crops • more efficient rainwater harvesting and runoff Improved farm management practices could double management or even triple the yields of key rainfed crops (such as • selection, conservation, and improvement of sorghum, legumes, and pulses), and the total area local varieties and introduction of new drought- under cultivation could be substantially enlarged and pest-resistant varieties. by a factor of at least 1.5, as up to half the land is Fodder is a lucrative crop for farmers, under both usually left fallow in most cropping seasons. Even irrigated and rainfed conditions; there is excess after such improvements, however, yields would demand at seaports and along the main livestock be low, implying that rainfed crops will not be able export trade corridors. Smallholder farmers already to drive the country’s agricultural growth. They still switch cultivation of their land between crops and have important roles to play in providing a low- fodder, to reduce their risk and increase their income. cost subsistence food security net that encourages economic activity rather than dependency on food Commercial fodder production has expanded in aid and humanitarian assistance. recent years. Sorghum (and even irrigated maize) is increasingly harvested green as fodder; legumes, Given the high risk associated with rainfed pulses, and root crops are also often used for feed. agriculture in general and especially in the Horn Some fodder production and marketing cooperatives of Africa, climate-smart agriculture is essential have been established, but private companies have yet to increase output and strengthen food security. to venture into large-scale fodder commercialization, Widespread adoption of such practices is needed to possibly because of poorly developed supply chains. improve soil fertility management, reduce pests and diseases risks, and adapt to stressed conditions and To boost fodder supply and its quality, public unpredictable rainfall patterns. Practices include interventions are needed, especially for improving the following: irrigation infrastructure, adopting high-yielding • appropriate fertilizer application (micro-doses, pasture grass varieties, and better managing lime, and so forth) (invasive plants. Introduction of improved grass • use of compost, crop rotation, and diversification varieties (for example, Cenchrus ciliaris) could more (for example, growing different crops and using than double the productivity of the rangelands.83 multiple varieties of the same crop) Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 107 Chapter 7 THE FISHERY SUBSECTOR Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 109 7. The Fishery Subsector Key Findings • Somalia has the longest coastline in Africa (3,333 kilometers) and a large Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ), but its coastal shelf is narrow, except off the Puntland coast, with limited habitat for demersal (bottom feeder) fish stocks. • The Somali Large Marine Ecosystem nonetheless supports a wide variety of marine ecosystems and fish, from large pelagic (highly migratory) species (such as tuna) to smaller pelagic fish, crustaceans, and other reef species. • Fish consumption in Somalia remains one of the lowest in Africa, but increased urbanization and the return of diaspora members with newly acquired preferences have fueled rapid growth in domestic demand for fresh fish. Coastal communities have traditionally relied on fishing for both their food security and their livelihood, exporting fish to Kenya, Tanzania, and the Arabian Peninsula. • Weak or absent governments and the lack of active fishery management during the past three decades have allowed both artisanal fishing and (legal and illegal) fishing activity by foreign vessels to expand without controls. The result has been serious degradation of the marine and coastal environment. • Projected increases in sea temperature and sea level will negatively affect coastal fish nesting and fishing grounds and increase the frequency and severity of flooding of low-lying coastal lands, estuaries, deltas, and salt marshes. • The domestic marine fishery subsector is modest in size, with artisanal fishing carried out mostly by men (about 4,500 full-time and 5,000 part-time, with about 1,300 small vessels), and trading and support activities and (minimal) fish processing carried out by women. • Knowledge of Somalia’s fishery subsector is very limited, because its waters remain uncharted, unsupervised, and unmonitored. No reliable data on fishing activity, landings, stocks, or habitat status have been collected since before the civil war. Since 1980, guesstimates of catches by domestic and foreign vessels have fluctuated but generally increased, to about 194,000 tons by 2013—less than one-fourth the guesstimated annual fishery production potential of about 835,000 tons. • Reliable assessments of 17 species found that 8 of them were fished unsustainably. They include swordfish, striped marlin, emperors, goatfish, snapper, sharks and rays (which represent as much as 40 percent of the catch of artisanal fisheries), grouper, and grunts. • Maritime and fisheries’ governances are still in their infancy, with provisions for licensing partly defined under the 2014 federal fisheries law and partly under some states’ legislation or regulations. The new federal law still lacks important provisions and is of limited value for fisheries management. Revenue sharing between federal and state governments for the licenses recently granted remains to be implemented. Despite stated ambitions, neither the federal nor the state ministries have been transparent about the licenses they have issued, and they do not have the capacity to monitor or control fisheries, especially offshore. • The main challenges for the subsector are (a) the lack or poor functioning of cold-chain facilities, (b) inadequate fish landing facilities at all major ports, (c) minimal processing ventures, and (d) the lack of or very poor transport links between major urban centers and isolated fishing communities along the coast, many of which remain reliant on trading with Yemeni vessels for their income. • There is a strong consensus among scientists and fishers alike that considerable potential exists for sustainable expansion of many fisheries within Somali waters, especially of tuna and oceanic tuna-like species. Fish waste could be also utilized in a variety of ways, including for human consumption, livestock feed, and energy generation. Effective management, supervision and monitoring, and public investment and technical assistance plans, including for support to expansion plans by fishers’ cooperatives and the private sector, are needed to ensure the sustainability of all fisheries. Two prerequisites for improvement are stock and catch assessments and ecosystem analysis and effective enforcement of existing regulations. 110 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector 7.1 Overview of Somalia’s Fisheries foreigners, with little economic benefits for Somalia, mostly limited to revenues from nontransparent Fish consumption in Somalia is one of the lowest licenses. In the early 1990s, the industrial trawlers in Africa, at about 3.1 kilograms per capita in 2009 working before the civil war, under a joint venture (Kelleher 2016), although it is rising. Most Somalis company with Italy, were quickly looted and informally are still rooted in their pastoralist tradition and privatized by their Somali crews and sponsoring have a strong preference for meat, although even businesspeople, who operated them out of the ports pastoralists use a fish product known as haneed, of Bosaso and Berbera. Lack of maintenance and usually mackerel or tuna species hot smoked in a reinvestment turned them into short-lived ventures; fire pit to give it a shelf life of about three months. none is still in operation. Coastal populations have also always eaten fresh fish, but traditional resistance to its consumption among Near-shore activity in Puntland and Somaliland was the wider population reflects bad experiences with taken up by Yemeni fishers, who fish with their own fish that spoiled quickly for lack of ice and proper vessels and buy fish from local fishers. As Yemen’s handling. In recent decades, increased urbanization own fisheries became overexploited, trade between and returning diaspora members with newly acquired Yemeni buyers and Somali fisheries grew. For many preferences have fueled rapid growth in domestic isolated Somali communities, this trade has been demand for fresh fish, albeit from a very low base. their main source of livelihood. Coastal communities are mostly dependent on Weak or absent governments during the past fishing, carried out largely by men, and on fish three decades have allowed serious degradation of processing, trading, and support activities, carried Somalia’s marine and coastal environment. Pollution out by women. Since ancient times, Somali clans resulting from oil spillage and the dumping of toxic along the Indian Ocean coast have exported fish industrial waste, overexploitation by illegal foreign products to Kenya and Tanzania on sailing dhows, fishing vessels, sea level rise linked to climate change, following the northeast monsoon. Returning during and rapid urbanization and coastal population the southwest monsoon later in the year, these vessels growth have contributed to marine and coastal used to bring back various other goods, supporting a habitat destruction. The expected rise in sea level will valuable two-way trade and a second round of fish negatively affect fish nesting and fishing grounds and buying, this time to the Arabian Peninsula. threaten the very existence of coastal communities through flooding of low-lying coastal lands, estuaries, Many of these vessels were lost in the early 1980s, deltas, and salt marshes (FSG 2015a). when their movement placed them in the Shatt-Al- Arab waterway at the outbreak of war between Iraq Somalia has the longest coastline in Africa (3,333 and Iran. Direct state control of fishing assets and kilometers) and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) activities and tight regulatory and foreign exchange estimated at 825,052–831,000 square kilometers restrictions on private investment and trading (figure 7.1).84 However, the Somali coastal shelf is activities by the Siad Barre regime during its initial narrow, with limited habitat for demersal (bottom socialist phase deprived coastal communities of feeder) fish stocks, and many coastal communities their livelihood and rendered them among the most report reduction in stocks, the result of overfishing. food insecure. Fisheries management—a precondition for unlocking and sustaining the sector’s potential for increased Since the start of the civil war, commercial fishing incomes, employment, food security, nutrition, and in Somali waters has been carried out mostly by fiscal revenues—is completely absent. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 111 7. The Fishery Subsector Figure 7.1: Map of Fishing Locations in Somalia LEGEND Fishing location District Capital National Boundary Regions Districts Rivers Coastline Main Roads 1:1,500,000 Little is known about the sector, because the waters surface, replacing the warmer, usually nutrient- are largely uncharted. For more than 30 years, there depleted surface water). Seasonal variations has been no scientific research about the status of related to the southwest and northeast monsoons fish stocks, and scientific data available in the 1980s (described below) support a wide variety of marine were incomplete. ecosystems and a high level of diversity of fish along Somalia’s coast (Van Zalinge 1988). Between March The Somali Large Marine Ecosystem has one of the and October, the warm southwest monsoon pushes strongest upwelling systems in the world (upwelling surface waters northeast and forms the Somali refers to wind-driven motion of dense, cooler, current, the fastest open ocean current in the world, and usually nutrient-rich water toward the ocean with an average speed of 3.5 meters per second. 112 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector This current causes an intense upwelling along the The Gulf of Aden is less productive than the Indian east coast of Somalia, stimulating an influx of cold Ocean. Pelagic fish concentrations vary in abundance (17°C–22°C), nutrient-rich (5–20 micrometers of seasonally and annually, and there are differences in nitrate) water moving to the surface to replace the species composition (more longtail tuna and sailfish, layer of warmer water pushed toward Oman and less skipjack tuna) The coastal shelf is generally resulting in increased primary production, known narrow, with one extended area to Maydh Island, a as plankton bloom. High monsoon wind speeds rich fishing location, and Zeilac, close to the Djibouti (about 15 meters per second) allow nutrients to be border. The 1,300-kilometer-long northern coast mixed deep into the water column; as a result, high of Somalia is protected from the strong southwest biological productivity is not confined to surface monsoon, but it has only two major deepwater harbors, waters (Prasanna Kumar and others 2000; Prasanna at Berbera in Somaliland and Bosaso in Puntland, plus Kumar and Narvekar 2002). Between October and limited mooring facilities in Aluula and Laasqoray. March, the northeast monsoon reverses the Somali current flow, moving the coastal waters southwest 7.2 Fisheries Production Systems, and suppressing the upwelling (McClanahan 1988). Trends, and Institutions 7.2.1 Inshore Fisheries The influences of the monsoonal wind systems The vast majority of Somalia’s EEZ is oceanic, on the Indian Ocean’s oceanographic currents because the continental shelf along most of its and the associated rich upwellings off the Somali coastline is relatively narrow, except off Puntland, basin make both the coastal and the offshore where it extends some 300 kilometers to Socotra (in waters of Somalia highly productive, especially Yemen). Along the coast of the Gulf of Aden and from in the Indian Ocean (Mann and Lazier 2006). They the Cape Guardafui (or Ras Asir) to Eyl, the coastline provide optimal conditions for both demersal and pelagic (highly migratory) species, especially tuna, consists largely of outcrops and of beaches exposed for which this area is among the most productive to high-energy ocean waves. Some reef and seagrass in the world. These upwellings support a variety of habitats exist, but the main areas of barrier, fringing, concentrations of small pelagic fish, potential preys and patch reef community stretch from Eyl south to of scombrids, which have been the basis for limited Mogadishu, extending past the border with Kenya. coastal fisheries for many hundreds of years and had Diversity is greatest in the coral reef region from already generated strong interest from industrial Adale to the Kenyan border. All these reef systems fishing before the civil war. are influenced by the tropical waters flowing north from the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania. The 2,000-kilometer-long Indian Ocean coast of Somalia has very strong ocean currents and few Fishing is a seasonal activity for many rural dwellers, natural harbors. Kismayo, in Jubaland, is the only including pastoralists, and often an important natural port; Mogadishu has only a small naturally source of supplementary food and cash income. protected area at the old port, in addition to man- On much of Somali’s Indian Ocean coastline, fishing made cargo-oriented commercial facilities. Isolated ceases entirely during the months of the strongest headlands provide limited protection from monsoon southwest monsoon winds, when many coastal conditions in some other locations and a natural communities return to pastoralism. deepwater harbor behind Ras Hafun Peninsula in the north. More than 1,000 kilometers of Indian Ocean On average, fishers are 38 years old and live in coast has little protection for fishing vessels, most of households of eight people. More than half own which are beach launched. their fishing boats, half are members of fishing Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 113 7. The Fishery Subsector cooperatives, more than a third fish within 10 Puntland, and 5,000–10,000 in the rest of the country. kilometers of their communities, and half fish within Another expert indicates that the total could be as 50 kilometers. Many part-time fishers move inland high as 30,000, plus another 20,000 people on land when fish concentrations are the highest (during the employed indirectly in the sector (Ahmed 2015). The southwest monsoon), because their small fishing high average age of 38 for registered fishers suggests vessels are not suited for the rough weather during that fishing is not an attractive occupation, because this period and because summer temperatures of low returns and high risks, the inability to finance are very high. Lack of transport and cold-chain expansion and new entries, and the reluctance of older infrastructure serve as a further barrier to catching fishers to allow or facilitate access (Kelleher 2016).86 fish when they are most abundant. Somalia’s artisanal fleet is composed mostly of small There were an estimated 4,500 full-time and 5,000 boats, mainly built locally from old designs and part-time national fishers in 1990 along the entire generally beach launched. In the mid-2000s, the size Somali coast (Lovatelli 1996; ASCLME 2010) and of the fleet was estimated at about 650 motorized some related jobs on land (box 7.1). Many experts fiberglass 6- to 9-meter-long vessels, 380 traditional estimate the current figure at about 10,000 full- sail boats, and 800 5-meter-long houris or canoes time and part-time fishers.85 Some sources report (Kelleher 2016), suggesting that there may be today substantially higher numbers, including unregistered about 2,000 vessels of all types. A recent scoping and seasonal fishers. Kelleher (2016), for instance, mission by the FAO found the majority to be poorly cites about 23,000: 730 in Somaliland, 12,000 in built and unprofitable, offering poor catch handling. Box 7.1: From Modest to Minimal Fish and Seafood Processing in Somalia Realizing early the potential of Somali fisheries, private investors from Italy built tuna canneries in Alula (which closed after a short time), Candala, and Habo before World War II. Additional canneries were built in the 1950s in Bosaso and Laasqoray, though they operated only intermittently. A large cold-storage facility was built in Bolimog during the same period, but it never operated at commercial capacity because it was too far from markets. Fish processing in Kismayo began in the late 1960s, with the construction of the port and a fish- processing facility complete with cold storage. Both the port and the facility remained operational until the civil war. In the 1980s, the Siad Barre government oversaw the expansion of existing facilities and the construction of additional ones. Fishing cooperatives were formed and facilities were built for processing and storing fish in Bander Beyla, Eyl, Zeila, Heis, Mait, Bargal, Hobyo, Adale, Merca, Brava, Kamboni, Mareeg, Habai, and Ras Hafun. Some of these facilities were simple structures without refrigeration, in which filleting, salting, drying, and smoking of fish, primarily for export, took place. Others, especially facilities built with outside support in Berbera and Mogadishu, were more advanced and included cooling or freezing capacity. All were generally operated in partnership with investors from other countries, in particular Italy. There is currently minimal fish processing in Somalia. The Laasqoray tuna cannery is closed and unlikely to return to production. The Habo tuna cannery remains on life support and is unprofitable, despite multiple grants and attempts to rehabilitate it. Eight domestic companies export and market fish and seafood (see appendix H). Source: Hussein (2017). 114 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector The recent introduction by the FAO of new 6.3-, 8.3-, reaching an estimated 194,000 tons in 2013 (figure and 10.3-meter boat designs that meet international 7.2).88 Glaser and others (2015) estimate annual safety standards to boatyards in Mogadishu, Berbera, fishery production potential at 835,000 tons, more and Bosaso gives cause for optimism that successful than four times their estimated catch.89 fleet renewal through private sector investment may be possible. Glaser and others (2015) concludes that domestic and foreign catches in Somali waters increased Somalia’s domestic fishery subsector has remained from 16,500 tons in 1950 to 127,800 tons in 2015 modest in size since its development was stalled in and that actual catches were 80 percent higher than the 1990s after the beginning of the civil war. As a officially reported data (Cashion and others 2018). result, the foreign fishery subsector was allowed to Foreign fishing dwarfed domestic fishing and likely expand. As foreign vessels operating in Somali waters contributed to the decline in the stocks of fisheries are either unregulated or poorly regulated but in all observed by Glaser and others. Both these latest cases unsupervised and unmonitored, the true number estimates, as well as all others, need to be taken with of foreign fishers is largely unknown. Primary data have extreme caution, however. not been systematically collected since the early 1980s. Estimates on stock numbers and composition, effort, Although there is considerable potential for pelagic catches, prices, fishers, and domestic fishing vessels are species, assessments conducted on domestic and therefore scattered and conflicting.87 foreign catches of 17 species groups find that 8— including swordfish, striped marlin, emperors, A group of international researchers recently goatfish, snapper, sharks and rays (which represent presented the results of a large study that included as much as 40 percent of the catch of artisanal some catch estimates for these fleets. Their study is fisheries), grouper, and grunts—were fished based on published reports, interviews with experts, unsustainably (Glaser and others 2015). Yellowfin analysis of Automatic Identification System (AIS) tuna in the Indian Ocean have also been overfished data, satellite data, and reported Indian Ocean Tuna (IOTC 2017). Reef and demersal species are exploited Commission (IOTC) catch data (Glaser and others mainly by Somali artisanal fishing communities and 2015). According to the report, since 1980, catches visiting Yemenis. The overall level of exploitation may of foreign and domestic vessels in the Somali EEZ be below the potential sustainable capacity of the have fluctuated, but they have generally increased, territorial waters, but local overfishing is reported for Figure 7.2: Fisheries Catch in Somali Waters, by Species, 1981–2001 1981 1991 2001 2011 Source: Glaser and others (2015). Note: Figures include both foreign and domestic catch estimates. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 115 7. The Fishery Subsector reef species, which are concentrated near population federal or regional Somali governments granted centers (Hassan and Tako 1999). Other sources concur some of these trawlers fishing licenses, but many that the state of fish resources in Somali waters is longliners still crowd just outside the EEZ border and unclear; that many resources remain underexploited, some still venture illegally into the EEZ.90 because of weak domestic purchasing power, poor market links, and limited export facilities; and that Commercial bottom trawling has occurred for many high-value inshore stocks, including lobster and several decades along Somalia’s narrow continental sea cucumber, are overexploited (Kelleher 2016). shelf (0–75 meters but also much deeper, to 400 meters). It is particularly intense on the northeastern Domestic catches in coastal waters are made mainly coast of Puntland, where the continental shelf by gillnets. Other gear types are also used, including is widest, and to a lesser extent off the coast of handlines, longlines, traps, and seine nets from small Jubaland. Trawls generally target demersal species motorized fishing crafts. Artisanal fisheries also use (eight are considered of economic importance), trolling and handlining for tuna and kingfish and cast mostly over reefs but also in deep water. Although netting for sardines, which are used as bait (FAO 1999; bottom trawling has been illegal since 2016 under Rosenberg and others 2014). Data collected during the new Somali fisheries law, trawls continue to the FAO fishers’ registration project indicate that in operate, mostly under license from the state of some areas, beach collection for crabs and diving Puntland. These vessels catch about 5,500 tons a for spiny lobster and sea cucumber are important year of cephalopods and demersal fish, according sources of seasonal income, particularly for people to estimates based on four years of Automatic with few assets or cash reserves. Anecdotal evidence Identification System (AIS) data (Van Zalinge 1988). suggests that these fisheries are now heavily Although old and limited, these data suggest very overexploited, particularly in communities where high rates of discarding and environmental damage; traders have introduced scuba gear. many more fish are probably discarded than landed. A fleet of four freezer trawlers has operated off the The spiny lobster (both deepwater and shallow coast of Puntland for several years, transshipping at species) is the most commercially important sea or landing in Oman, in contravention of Somalia’s invertebrate caught in Somalia’s waters and one of laws. Few data are available on their landings, Somalia’s oldest fisheries. They used to be exploited industrially by trawls at depths of 150–400 meters. although indications from the Environmental Justice Almost nothing is known about current trawl effort Foundation, based on limited landing data obtained on deepwater stocks, although trawlers are known to from Salalah, indicate that these vessels may be have landed these species in Mombasa and Salalah taking several thousand tons a year (FAO 2016b). in 2014 and 2015. The activities of foreign-owned industrial trawlers Artisanal fishers target coastal species using traps, in coastal waters have also depleted reef and spear, and nets, as well as by free and scuba divers demersal coastal fisheries and damaged habitats. (UNEP 2005). Most current catches are by Italian Iran and Yemen have the largest fishing presence in vessels in a submarine canyon along the Puntland Somalia’s waters, with Iranian tuna gillnetters often coast and a little farther south and in the south of entering into conflicts with artisanal fisheries. Tuna Jubaland, including around the Bajuuni Islands and vessels from Europe and Asia had a large presence near the border with Kenya. Lack of government in Somali waters in the past (see Johnsen 1985 for and local community management measures and the prewar period); this activity has declined since regulations and the high market prices lobsters the onset of large-scale Somali piracy. In 2015, the command has led to overfishing. 116 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector Sharks and rays are another very valuable catch, available for this species, vessels of the type recently for both local and export markets; Asian countries built by the FAO in Bosaso, with a combined ice/fish prize their liver, fins, and meat. They are targeted by capacity of 6 tons, could probably reach them. artisanal fishers along the northern, northeastern, and central coasts and are highly vulnerable to 7.2.2 Offshore Fisheries overexploitation (Glaser and others 2015). A very Economically important species of large pelagic small group of Mombasa-based traders controls the species, including tuna and tuna-like species, shark fin trade. As with sea cucumber and lobster, billfish, and sharks, are targeted offshore (more than limited competition among traders results in most 24 nautical miles from the coast) only by foreign, of the price received in export markets remaining industrial, and oceanic fisheries when they migrate with middlemen. A fishery targeting Gulper shark in through Somali waters.91 Purse seiners catch tropical Puntland developed rapidly for the production of tuna species (bigeye, skipjack, yellowfin) when they fish oil. Signs of overfishing are already evident, with group in surface schools or around fish aggregating anecdotal reports of decrease in the size of the sharks. devices—large rafts left to float in the current that aggregate schools of tuna beneath them—which Other important nonreef species inhabiting sand, came into use in the early 1990s. Their impact has silt, and mud bottoms that are already targeted in been controversial, because they increased catches the near-shore coastal and neritic zones of Somalia of juvenile yellowfin and bige. (Other kinds of coastal- include (a) small pelagic fish, such as sardines, anchored fish aggregating devices, which are not herrings, anchovies, and mackerel (caught by seine used by the fleet but were recently installed in a pilot nets, cast nets, stake nets, and lines), the stocks of all project by the FAO for small-scale fishers in southern of which remain underexploited in the wider Indian Somalia and Puntland, result in a different form of Ocean (see appendix G); (b) cuttlefish (caught by aggregation. They are used for handline fishing only trawls, jigs, and traps); and (c) shrimp and prawns and have very limited impact on fish stocks.) Longline (caught by trawls, seine nets, and gillnets). A seasonal vessels also catch some yellowfin and bigeye tuna. artisanal fishery targeting prawns was operating at Longliners come from China; Taiwan, Province of the mouth of the Juba River near Kismayo in southern China; and Japan. Purse seiners come from the Somalia (Johnsen 1985), but no reports are available European Union, Iran, Mauritius, Oman, Pakistan, on its postwar and current status. Egyptian trawlers Seychelles, Yemen, and other countries. working out of Eritrea fish for prawns in the waters off Zeila, in Somaliland, landing them in Djibouti or Estimates of landings for highly migratory species occasionally Berbera. based on data from the regional tuna fisheries management organization, the Indian Ocean Tuna Other valuable resources in the EEZ are not targeted, Commission (IOTC), indicate a total catch of about because of lack of domestic demand, transport, and 50,000 tons in 2013 (Glaser and others 2015). The processing infrastructure. They include Indian oil real figure of total offshore catch is uncertain. For sardines (Sardinella longiceps), which also attract the methodological reasons discussed above, the large pelagic predators, such as tuna. Although part estimate is probably high—but it could also be low, if of these stocks make seasonal migrations into the large landings offshore go unreported. coastal areas between Ras Mabber and Ras Asir, their fishery’s main distribution areas are off the In 2016, the IOTC classified some highly migratory northeastern coast, which are not within easy reach species (including yellowfin tuna, black and striped of Puntland (Pilcher and Krupp 2000). If markets were marlin, longtail tuna, and narrow-barred Spanish Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 117 7. The Fishery Subsector mackerel) overfished throughout the Indian Ocean. is still seeking international recognition for its self- Stocks of other species under the management proclaimed independence, has used its lack of tuna mandate of the IOTC (including other tuna, swordfish, resources and interest by the international tuna and kawakawa) seem to be healthy (or their status fleet in fishing in the Gulf of Aden as an argument to could not be assessed; see appendix G).92 distance itself from the revenue-sharing negotiations among the Federal Government and the other Highly migratory species were fished largely by Federal Member States. the European purse seine fleet, which traditionally fished in Somali waters during the southwest In 2015, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) monsoon. After the outbreak of piracy in 2007, the identified some Chinese longliners operating in fleet moved away from the EEZ, after the European the Somalia EEZ without license (figure 7.3).93 The Union and the governments of France, Spain, and Federal Government responded by issuing licenses to Seychelles imposed strict conditions. a small number of Chinese tuna longliners, without consulting the Federal Member States. The licensing There is potential for generating revenue by licensing fees were not shared with them but were instead the purse seine and longline fleet to target tuna and used to build a new federal ministry building in tuna-like species in Somalia. In 2014, discussions Mogadishu (it remains unfinished and unoccupied).94 between federal and state administrations, supported by the FAO and the government of Italy, were held 7.2.3 Inland Fisheries to reach an agreement on the creation of federal For generations, share-cropping communities in fisheries authorities, modalities for tuna licenses, and Somalia have fished the lower reaches of southern revenue sharing. The objective was to develop a clear Somalia’s two permanent rivers. These fish are highly and transparent licensing system for foreign tuna valued locally as a good source of food, particularly in vessels to operate under license in Somali waters, watersheds in which tsetse flies are common, where generating revenue for the country. A few interim little or no livestock is available for consumption. agreements were reached, under which tuna licenses Fishing and consumption of fish farther upstream are would be issued by the federal Ministry of Fisheries less established. and Marine Resources, in consultation with Federal Member States. In 2016, other partners, including FAO site visits around Jowhar in 2016 confirmed the World Bank, USAID, the European Union, and that fishing skills and equipment are rudimentary, Norway, supported this imitative. In May 2016, a with fishers using traps and handlines in the proposal suggested that management responsibility southern reaches of the river. The FAO funded row be given to Federal Member States within 12 nautical boats, fishing kits, and training in fishing techniques, miles of the coast and to the Federal Government handling, and processing. These efforts resulted in for the EEZ (12–200 nautical miles from the cost), a more than 85 percent of beneficiaries eating fish management option commonly used in other federal daily.95 Interventions in Dollow, in the Gedo region, countries, such as Australia, India, and the United where the FAO supported the formation of fishing States (although in the latter, federal waters extend cooperatives, and more recently in Jowhar also saw 3– 200 nautical miles in most states). bycatches of freshwater turtles and crocodiles in gillnets, however. The ecosystem impact of further None of these agreements has yet been incorporated expansion of gear and resulting catches could thus into the Somali legal framework. Somaliland, which be significant. 118 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector Figure 7.3: Automatic Identification System (AIS) Tracking of 11 Chinese Longline Vessels, March–May 2015 Map from OpenStreetMap and Gis user community Source: Glaser and others (2015). 7.2.4 Institutional Framework for Managing it retained its declaration of a 200-mile territorial Fisheries sea, which was incompatible with UNCLOS. In June Maritime and fishery governance in Somalia is still 2014, Somalia officially proclaimed an EEZ.96 This in its infancy. For many years, a major constraint proclamation was to be consistent with the provision was the lack of a legitimate EEZ. Somalia declared a of UNCLOS that was ractified by Somalia in 1989. The 200-mile-wide territorial sea in 1972 (Law No. 37), EEZ proclamation was a vital step toward enabling with boundaries to the south with Kenya, to the Somalia to issue licenses to foreign fishing vesels, north in the Gulf of Aden with Yemen, and to the west generate much needed revenue and sustainably with Djibouti. Within these water, fishing operations manage its marine resources. Before its proclamation, by any vessel were prohibited unless flagged or the ambiguous legal situation meant that visiting licensed by Somalia. In 1989, Somalia ratified the vessals could—and did—claim that licences were not UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), but a legal requirement. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 119 7. The Fishery Subsector Figure 7.4: Summary of Economically Important Fishes and Invertebrates found in Somali Waters Source: FAO.org In 1979, Kenya proclaimed an EEZ with a northern The EEZ proclamation was a vital step toward boundary of latitude 1°38’S. It revised it in 2005 enabling Somalia to issue licenses to foreign fishing to 1°39’34’S. In the 2014 EEZ proclamation by vessels, generate much needed revenue, and Somalia, the southern boundary with Kenya was sustainably manage its marine resources. Before its set perpendicular to the coastline, creating a large proclamation, the ambiguous legal situation meant disputed area between the two countries. Somalia that visiting vessels could—and did—claim that instituted proceedings against Kenya in August 2014, licenses were not a legal requirement. Somaliland before the International Court of Justice regarding also claims its own EEZ and exclusive fishing areas. the maritime boundary between their territorial seas, EEZs, and continental shelves. The case is ongoing.97 120 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector In December 2014, the federal Parliament passed The fisheries law does not give any powers to issue a new fisheries law, which sets new fishing limits licenses to the Federal Member States. Some states (the 2014 EEZ proclamation did not define the 12- that have issued licenses to foreign fishing vessels, in mile territorial sea or the 24-mile contiguous zone) particular Puntland, claim that the law was drafted (box 7.2).98 It prohibits fishing without a license and and passed without any consultation of the states. In partly defines provisions for licensing. It lacks missing the context of fisheries for tuna and tuna-like species important provisions, however, and is of limited value in Somali waters, the FGS and the Federal Member for fisheries management. States agreed that licenses to foreign tuna vessels would be issued by the Federal Ministry and the Somaliland and Puntland adopted fisheries laws revenue generated shared between the FGS and the in 1995 and 2011, respectively, as well as fisheries Federal Member States. This agreement was never regulations. Their status is unclear, given the repeal translated into a legal instrument, however, and provision of the federal fisheries law (Article 43). no revenue from licensing was shared. Moreover, despite stated ambitions, neither the federal nor the Neither the Provisional Constitution of Somalia regional state ministries have the capacity to monitor (2012) nor the Fisheries Law (2014) contain specific or control fisheries, especially offshore.99 provisions on the responsibility or jurisdiction of the Federal Member States of Somalia over the maritime The federal Ministry of Fisheries and Marine domain. Article 44 of the Provisional Constitution Resources is based in Mogadishu. According to states that “the allocation of the natural resources of the 2014 Fisheries Law, it has jurisdiction over all the Federal Republic of Somalia shall be negotiated fisheries in Somalia. All five Federal Member States as by, and agreed upon, by the Federal Government and well as the self-proclaimed independent Somaliland the Federal Member States in accordance with this also have ministries responsible for fisheries. Their Constitution.” Article 54 states that “the allocation of jurisdiction and relationship with the Federal powers and resources shall be negotiated and agreed Ministry is unclear and not defined, and contacts upon by the Federal Government and the Federal for collaboration and exchange of information Member States (pending the formation of Federal among them are limited. For instance, the FGS has Member States), except in matters concerning: (A) yet to gain access to the fishers’ registration data Foreign Affairs; (B) National Defense; (C) Citizenship collected by the state ministries with support from and Immigration; (D) Monetary Policy, which shall the FAO. All states except Somaliland and Puntland be within the powers and responsibilities of the operate without their own legislation or regulations. Federal Government.” Galmudug has at times asserted that it has a coast Box 7.2: Excerpts from Somalia’s 2016 Fisheries Law Article 3 of the federal fisheries law approved by the Federal Parliament in December 2014 (and which became effective in 2016) sets the fishing boundaries of Somalia’s EEZ as follows: The length of Somalia coastline is 3,333 kilometers with the width of 200 nautical miles.... The restricted zone reserved for Somali fishers living on the coast, and prohibited for any other fishers is 12 nautical miles....The protection zone that protects coastal fishers and in which fishing vessels are not permitted to enter is up to 24 nautical miles. Only coastal fishers are allowed to fish within 24 nautical miles.... Beyond 24 nautical miles, licensed vessels are allowed to access up to a length of 200 nautical miles of the Indian Ocean & Red Sea. Source: Official translation of the fisheries law. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 121 7. The Fishery Subsector guard capable of protecting its fisheries resources, Water Security Strategy of 2012 bases its approach on but no law establishes such an effort, and there is the understanding that cultivating productive sectors no evidence of such capability. A common maritime (agriculture, livestock, and fisheries); water; and and fishery development strategy was agreed to natural resources has the potential to reduce poverty, in September 2013 among the FGS, Galmudug, broaden the economic base, and create employment. Puntland, and Somaliland (box 7.3). The Somaliland Navy reportedly operates 29-meter vessels that can be fitted with machine guns and Somaliland, which does not recognize federal includes about 600 coast guards and a community authority, has passed its own fisheries laws reporting system. Somaliland has favored developing and regulations, and its ministry does not deal coastal fisheries while authorizing some foreign or coordinate with the federal ministry for any fishing, including private arrangements with Yemeni operational matter. In 2000, it approved a coastal vessels and Djibouti to facilitate fish trade and factor and marine resource policy. The Somaliland Food and supplies. Its regulations also require fishing vessels, Box 7.3: Creating Sustainable Fisheries: Key Goals of Somalia’s Maritime Resource and Security Strategy In September 2013, delegates and technical experts from the FGS, Galmudug, Puntland, and Somaliland came together to agree on a single strategy that identified problems, challenges, and common objectives. While recognizing the different stages of development among the regions, the strategy (summarized below) presented a common vision and goals to guide domestic development plans and assistance by the international community. Overall • Short term: Stocks to be assessed and local experts to be appointed to lead development of fishing policy. Training and equipment to be made available to local fishers. Somalia to join the IOTC for the benefit of the Somali people alongside the rest of East Africa. • Medium term: Fleet, port, processing, and export infrastructure to be developed. Fishing sector personnel to be trained. Local fish markets with some regional and global export potential to be developed. Fisheries institution to be established for the management of industrial fisheries and revenue from licensing. • Long term: Full value chain in the fishery subsector to be developed, with ability to trade domestically and export. Capacity [to be] developed for the management of the subsector, including adequate monitoring, control, and surveillance, as well as enforcement, effective prevention of illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, and adequate response to fishing-related crime. Resource Security • Short term: Legal ambiguity over Somali owned maritime resources to be resolved; effective licensing and registration monitoring, control, surveillance and enforcement to be adopted and immplemented. • Medium term: …community fisheries management to be adopted, leading to territorial use rights in fisheries (TURFS); small-scale and localized patrol bases to be established along the coast. Maritime Economy • Short term: Somali ports to become safe and financially viable for seafarers and industry… [with] sufficient capability to support port state control functions in relation to safety, security, customs, fishing.... • Medium term: Developing a training and certification need for Somali fishers and seafarers. Source: Official translation of the fisheries law. 122 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector including vessels operating under joint ventures, to Although fishery statistics are essential for be registered, maintain fishing logbooks, and pay sustainable fisheries management, Somalia still fees (Kelleher 2016). Links between the ministry and does not have a fishery data collection system in the Navy’s coast guard unit are strained, undermining place. All but one effort by development agencies to their cooperation and effectiveness. support the collection of primary catch and effort data by federal or state government agencies have failed. Among Federal Member States, Puntland has the The sole exception is the FAO-supported registration longest-established regional fishery administration, project, under which almost 7,000 fishers and 1,300 fisheries law, and regulations. In 2004, it prepared vessels have been registered in Somaliland, Puntland, a Marine Fisheries Policy and Strategy. It outlines its Galmudug, and Jubaland.100 principles and objectives for fisheries management as follows: “Marine and coastal resources belong to In 2016, the FAO provided the FGS and all Federal the entire people of Puntland. . . are shared equally, Member States with an Internet-based vessel fairly and transparently. . . [to ensure] a marine monitoring system (vTrack from VISMA), initial environment that is healthy; free of pollution, waste training, and computer terminals, and it facilitated and degradation; rich in quality, forms of life, and access and integration of Automatic Identification production; accessible; and [capable] of creating System (AIS) data from SeaVision to the system. Use equitable opportunity for sustainable development.” of this system is very limited, however, as none of the Its Fisheries Regulations (last updated in April foreign or domestic vessels operating under license 2004) established a Fisheries Advisory Council, with in Somalia is transmitting data, which the Somali representation from 9 associations covering some 50 authorities do not require. The FAO and IOTC trained fishing settlements (some of which are very isolated, observers and inspectors, but observers are rarely with no road access). Although a new fisheries deployed onboard fishing vessels, and as no vessel law was adopted in 2011, these regulations were is calling in Somali ports, no inspections have been not revised and remain based on the 1985 Somali carried out. Fisheries Law. 7.3 Conditions of and Challenges Facing Puntland claims (or at least asserts) full jurisdiction Regional Fisheries over its waters and requires all fishers and fishing 7.3.1 Jubaland and South West vessels to be registered and licensed. But it lacks Coral reefs form an uninterrupted barrier from the institutional capacity to implement its law Caldale to the Kenyan border, giving some protection and regulations (Hassan 2011). It often ignores to inshore fishing grounds. Inshore shrimp grounds federal law. Recently, for instance, it issued licenses were historically fished by the Somali national fleet permitting foreign vessels to fish within 24 nautical and subsequently by Kenyan trawlers under various miles of its coast with trawl gear, in contravention forms of licenses. Historically, significant quantities of the 2014 federal fisheries law (and the Puntland of lobster were caught in the Kisimayo area and fisheries law). A private service provider (Triple S) that exported (by air) through Djibouti in the 1980s has a contract for patrols (under which it retains 30 (Kelleher 2016). percent of license fees and fines imposed) has been permitted to apprehend only a few unlicensed Iranian Activity of the once-thriving artisanal fishery out of the dhows, but no illegal, unreported, or unregulated natural port of Kismayo and its surroundings is at a trawlers—in disregard of both federal legislation and low level, after two and a half decades of instability Puntland’s own laws. and alternating rule by different militia groups, Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 123 7. The Fishery Subsector the Kenya Defense Forces, and Al-Shabab.101 Many the smuggling of weapons, people, and charcoal, and of its fishers are now living and working in Bosaso access difficulties to fish markets in Kenya keep the or other towns in Puntland (having rejoined their level of activity in Jubaland low. extended clan families there or moved to camps for internally displaced people) and are unlikely to The still unsettled political situation in the South return (FAO 2016b). West region has precluded significant interventions to help its fisheries. Plans to introduce fish Fishing facilities in the region are nonexistent. aggregation devices at the traditional fishing ports of Some foreign industrial trawling was observed in Barawe and Merca in 2015 were prevented by fishers, 2015 and 2016, for deep sea crustaceans, fish, and who feared execution by Al-Shabaab if suspected cephalopods (for example, cuttlefish) landing in of cooperating with foreign development and aid Mombasa. Two vessels have fished this area, but agencies. Both ports were successful fishing sites their licenses (believed to be forged), fishing method, before the war and continue to host limited landings. and areas fished (inside 24 nautical miles) are in Fish are sold at very low prices (as low as $0.70 per contravention of the provision of the federal fisheries kilogram), however, because few buyers are willing law. This activity has now ceased, after intervention to take the logistical and security risk of shipping fish by the FGS and Kenyan authorities. The potentially overland to Mogadishu. rich Bajuni island chain, between Kismayo and the Kenya border at Ras Kamboni, is also reported as Landing infrastructure at these two ports is no longer experiencing a low level of fishing. usable; piers have collapsed and largely disappeared. Jazeera, 40 kilometers south of Mogadishu and the There are strong opportunities to generate local northernmost coastal location of the South West employment and enhance incomes to supply the state, has a sheltered landing site and a permanent growing local market demand and especially export fleet of 20 vessels, joined seasonally by vessels from markets, according to a scoping report by the Horn Mogadishu and Merca, the latter using Jazeera to sell Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI) for catch to buyers who drive down from Mogadishu. a possible fishery-related aid project in Jubaland Ice facilities are not available at either port, although (Yahie 2016). The absence of basic fisheries’ gear and a facility is currently under construction in Jazeera. infrastructure and the weak institutional capacity in The fisheries at Barawe and Merca are expected to both the public and private sectors—as a result of the benefit from the high political priority accorded the prolonged civil unrest—presents two major challenges two ports by the Federal Government, which is very that need to be addressed urgently (box 7.4). keen to rebuild them and create new employment after the recent expulsion of Al-Shabaab. NGOs and the private sector have made some efforts to revitalize the fish industry in the area, 7.3.2 Banaadir (Mogadishu) and Hirshabelle with only mixed results. Some ice production is The artisanal fishery of Mogadishu is very active, available in Kismayo, but cold-chain infrastructure though there is no data collection, registry of is in ruins. Some institutional memory on fish drying boats, or market data, only anecdotal evidence of and processing remains, but the large labor pool production, marketing, and processing. Increased of internally displaced people who originate from landings have been reported, thanks to high agricultural and pastoral hinterlands possesses few demand for fish and a thriving market system. fishing skills. Most efforts to introduce them to fishing Some ice production is intermittently available in have failed. Security difficulties, in an area prone to Mogadishu, allowing distribution of fresh fish to 124 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector wider markets, but the relatively large population skiffs supplies fish daily to the Hamarweyne and Lido of Mogadishu means that all fish landed there are markets. Fish sold in these markets also originate sold locally. A fleet of more than 200 locally built from Jazeera, Merca, and Barawe to the south and outboard-powered and fiberglass-reinforced plastic Warsheikh to the north. Box 7.4: Fishery Development Needs in Jubaland The scoping report by the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI) for a possible fishery-related aid project in Jubaland recommends that any support provided to address the lack of gear, infrastructure, and institutional capacity be holistic. Establishing boat-building facilities and improving skills, building new markets or rehabilitating others, importing and establishing modern cold rooms and ice-making machines, and providing large vessels are all critical needs. Fishers also need access to capital. For fish markets to operate adequately and hygienically, electricity and running water are needed. Qualified local technicians and trained entrepreneurs are also needed to operate and maintain equipment and markets. The report makes three broad recommendations: (a) avoid reinventing the wheel by heeding lessons learned from other studies, (b) build on existing institutions and remain selective about areas of intervention, and (c) offer finance but avoid giving grants and donations, in order to ensure the sustainability of the resultant outcomes. It also offers actionable recommendations (not listed in order of priority): • Establish at least two cold-storage and ice production units each in Kismayo and on Madhowa Island. • Implement the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)/American Refugee Committee (ARC) boat rehabilitation workshop project, and arrange for suitable management to operate and sustain the facility based on a viable business model. • Identify entrepreneurs who are both familiar with both markets (Jubaland and Mombasa, Kenya) and willing to take advantage of opportunities despite the high risk of doing business in Jubaland. Consider establishing links with Somali/Kenyan local fishing communities and businessmen who have presence on both sides of the border. • Provide adequate support (hardware and software) to fishing cooperatives, and transform them into viable enterprises built on sound business practices. • Establish a business incubator for existing apprenticeship workshops and provide it with the necessary tools and capital to perform repair and maintenance services of refrigeration and cooling system and to train youth. • Build and equip a fish-drying and salting workshop, to be managed by the Juba Fish Cooperative at Kiboro beach and used as an apprentice center for unemployed youth. • Provide support in building institutional capacity and training a cadre of professionals and skilled apprentices to support industry rebuilding. • Establish a Small Entrepreneurs Loan Facility (SELF) for the fishery industry, to be managed by an existing finance institution in Kismayo. • Assist the government in establishing a fishery subsector donor coordination unit, to be established under the Office of the Jubaland State President. • Establish a unit with qualified staff in the ARC Kismayo office to oversee and implement the proposed project and study recommendations. Source: Yahie 2016. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 125 7. The Fishery Subsector Box 7.5: Fishery Development Needs in South West State Before the civil war began, fishing was the main occupation and fish the main source of food security for people living in coastal towns and villages in the Lower Shabelle region. The state’s fishers used gillnets, hooks for large fish and sharks, and to a lesser extent traps and seine nets. The civil war resulted in the collapse of most fishing activities in the South West state. Coastal communities lost almost all their fishing gear, including wooden boats, nets and net anchors, diving kits, anchors, and fishing lines. Today, artisanal fishers in the coastal settlements of Brava, Merka, and Jazira use small vessels, mostly canoes, which limit their ability to reach offshore resources and to fish during months of the year when seas are rough. Virtually all the few motorized boats in the state are out of order. A state assessment team identified the following development needs for the sector: • replacement of fishery gear (15-horsepower outboard engines, small oars for wooden boats, fishing hooks and nets, shark nets, fishing ropes, anchors). • development of fishery infrastructure, including freezers. • formation of fishing cooperatives. • vocational training and empowerment of fishers. • creation of employment for youth. • distribution and marketing of fish products in noncoastal regions of the state. Source: Ministry of Fishery and Marine Resources, South West State (email communication to World Bank). Surface longlining for shark, mainly the lucrative ice facility. Some other cold-chain investment (by shark fin export trade, is widespread. Where habitat NGOs and private Somali investors) has been made is suitable, fisheries for lobster and sea cucumber in Jazeera and Warsheikh, but these facilities remain are also thriving, though both species are reported unfinished. Plans by local businesspeople to create a as overfished. Market interviews undertaken by the 90-kilometer tarmac road between Mogadishu and FAO in 2014 suggested catches for Volvo-type vessels Warsheikh have yet to be realized. of up to 200 kilograms a day in high season; average catches are about 100 kilograms. Vessels fish at night Hirshabelle, the most recently formed Federal and return catches to land in the morning. They fish Member State, is largely occupied by Al-Shabab, only sporadically off the Banaadir and southern coast but its two main fish landing centers north of in low season, when the southwest monsoon makes Mogadishu, Warsheikh and Cadale, and a smaller sea conditions very difficult. one at Habai, are under government control. All three sites have artisanal fleets that longline for The municipal government has carried out some shark, lobster, and other fish species. Sales are refurbishment of the Hamarweyne market, but predominantly to buyers from Mogadishu, who it is still in deplorable conditions, with fresh fish control prices and the supply of ice from the city. either hand carried to the market from the small Infrastructure for holding live lobsters remains nearby beach or transported in open pick-up intact in Habai, with communal memory there of trucks from other sites. A Danish NGO recently successful export of live lobsters to Gulf countries, provided the beach landing site at Lido with a small through road links to Mogadishu airport. 126 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector 7.3.3 Galmudugs the FAO deployed two fish aggregation devices in The town of Hobyo, which enjoys some natural Labad and Xinwarbargo, north and south of Hobyo, protection from the southwest monsoon, is the main respectively; Hobyo itself remains too insecure for fish landing site in Galmudug. In addition to hosting any boat-building assistance. Box 7.6 summarizes the a long-time active fishery, in recent years it has been development needs identified by the state itself. a major base for piracy (box 7.7). With the success of international navies’ patrols in stamping out piracy 7.3.4 Puntland here and elsewhere along the Somali coast, fishing Puntland has a 1,600-kilometer-long coastline dotted activity has been reported as redeveloping, though with fishing communities, from Laasqoray through very limited information is available. During 2014–15, Bosaso to Habo on its Gulf of Aden coast and from a trawler and a Yemeni-registered longliner (fitted Toxin through Ras Hafun to Eyl on its Indian Ocean with traps) were actively operating in Galmudug and coast. With its wider (30-kilometer) continental shelf, Puntland waters, transshipping and unloading their it has access to the best fishing areas in Somalia. But catches in Oman, Yemen, and Kenya. until recently, southern Puntland was also a major base of piracy activities (box 7.7). Neither Hobyo, which has some small natural protection from the southwest monsoon and is Artisanal fishing is very active and reportedly on the key landing site in the state, nor any other the rise throughout Puntland, most evidently so fishing community in the state has a landing jetty in Bosaso. The Puntland Ministry of Fisheries and or similar facilities or working ice facilities. In 2015, Marine Resources has registered more than 5,000 Box 7.6: Fishery Development Needs in Galmudug State Small-scale fishing activities are a major source of employment, livelihood, and food security, directly and indirectly, for thousands of Galmudug residents. Its fisheries were hit hard by the civil war, however, and its revival may require millions of dollars, as the entire fisheries infrastructure and facilities put in place by previous governments were either looted or destroyed beyond repair or left to degrade in the course of the civil strife. Other problems affecting the sector and coastal fishing communities include lack of cold chains, easy-to-access markets for its products, financial resources, regular data collection, analysis, skill training, and a regulatory framework for the sector. The state’s priorities for the redevelopment of its fishery subsector are as follows: • Develop the state’s legal framework for local and foreign fisheries management, maritime controls/security, and the financial management of fisheries revenues. • Invest in sustainable livelihoods for coastal communities affected by piracy; illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing; and droughts. • Develop an effective maritime security strategy to protect biodiversity within territorial waters based on scientific and marine research, to be conducted in collaboration with the FGS and other states. • Develop coastal infrastructure, including appropriate landing sites, deep freezers, flake ice-making machines, and processing rooms. • Support the building of adequate fishing vessels and fishing gear. • Set up training facilities for fisheries-related professions, fisheries management, research, and fisheries-related skills, such as marketing and fisheries commerce, hygiene and sanitation, and so on. Source: Ministry of Fishery and Marine Resources, Galmudug State (email communication from Ministry to World Bank). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 127 7. The Fishery Subsector Box 7.7: Dwindling Piracy But Increasing Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing Activities in Somalia The business model for piracy that supported the high level of attacks—based largely in the Indian Ocean coastal communities of Galmudug and Puntland between 2007 and 2011—has been disrupted, principally because naval patrols by the international community have made the activity unprofitable and unviable (UNSC 2015). Analysis of the Fishermen’s ID and Registration Project in the two states reveals that the average age of fishers was highest in known piracy bases, as youth in these remote districts preferred piracy and eschewed fishing activities that were only marginally profitable for established operators. Although a few pirate attacks have been attempted since 2015, there have been no successful hijackings of merchant ships (one in early 2017 was speedily resolved by the intervention of Puntland authorities and local community elders). There have, however, been small-scale incidents involving foreign fishing trawlers (in 2015, for example, two Iranian gillnetters were attacked. One escaped, the other was seized and impounded. Hostages from earlier attacks are still being held for ransom. Eight Iranian seafarers were recently released by Somali pirates after having been held in captivity since May 2016. Up to a dozen Iranian sailors taken from a different vessel are still being held hostage (Tehran Times, February 16, 2017). Table 7.8.1: Pirate activities in Somalia, 2008–16 Pirate Activities 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Suspicious events 8 59 99 166 74 20 5 1 2 Total attacks 24 163 174 176 34 7 2 0 1 Of which pirated 14 46 47 25 4 0 0 0 0 Source: EU Navfor (http://eunavfor.eu/). The spread of piracy did reduce illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing activities in Somali waters and in the western Indian Ocean in general, probably resulting in some stock recovery. With the decline in piracy, illegal, unreported, and unregulated activities are reportedly on the increase. According to the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, private security guards from Somalia are sometimes involved in these activities. Many of them may previously have been engaged in piracy. The UN Security Council renewed its call to international navies to continue their antipiracy efforts in the area through 2017 and to renew the mandate of the European Union Naval Force ATALANTA (EU NAVFOR) through 2018. Without significant improvements in local employment and restoration of the rule of law, piracy will remain a latent threat on this coast. fishers, most of them using drift gillnets targeting such as Hurdiyo, Banderbeyla, and Eyl, have only large pelagic species. According to Kelleher (2016), rough roads, making fish transport difficult. They are in 2010 there were 12,650 fishers in Puntland, more reliant on Yemeni buyers from the sea, although operating 3,136 artisanal vessels, including motorized officials report fish exports by land from various coastal watercraft, sailboats, and canoes. communities all the way to Ethiopia. The reopening of an improved airport in Bosaso in early 2017 and Fish landed in Bosaso are traded by road through the start of regular commercial air cargo flights has Qardho to the regional capital of Garowe and as opened up the possibility of air exports of high-value far as Galkayo, along the only paved north-south species to the Gulf countries, if catch handling and road. Other fishing towns on the Indian Ocean coast, quality control issues can be resolved (box 7.8). 128 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector Box 7.8: Lessons from the World Bank’s Failed NECFISH Project The World Bank Northeast Coast Fisheries Enterprise (NECFISH) project, based at Bosaso in the late 1980s, explored the feasibility of large-scale harvesting of pelagic species and the collection and marketing of demersal species caught by artisanal fishers. A series of financial, structural, and technical problems beset the $9 million project. They included failure of the initial co-financing, technical difficulties with ice production, and difficulties with market access. The failed project highlighted the need for pilot projects to resolve technical, economic, and institutional issues and indicated that although large-scale pelagic fishing in the area was unlikely to be profitable, inshore fisheries had potential if fish transport and marketing of high-value species could be developed. Source: Kelleher (2016). Puntland’s annual sustainable catch has been For many years, possibly as far back as 2007, a fleet estimated at more than of 100,000 tons, mostly of six trawlers from the Republic of Korea, four of finfish but also lobster; the actual reported catch in which are now reregistered in Somalia, has trawled 2004 included 8,990 tons of shark and 2,144 tons of the Puntland coast. Initially, they had no licenses; other finfish (UNDP 2005; Kelleher 2016). In 2010, they now hold licenses from the Puntland Ministry three licensed trawlers operating in Puntland waters of Fisheries and Marine Resources. They export provided a total of $270,000 in government revenue. most of their catch to world markets, mainly through Traders are reported to account for about 40 percent Salalah, in Oman. Four Somali-flagged trawlers are of fish sales, Yemeni collector boats account for still operating, mostly in Puntland waters. In addition another 40 percent, and about 15 percent of to these trawlers, surface gillnetters from Iran the catch is sold directly by fishers through local are known to fish both inshore and offshore.104 In markets. In 2010, an estimated 120 Yemeni-flagged February 2017, seven Thai-owned trawlers, recently boats operated in Puntland during the fishing flagged to Djibouti, were licensed by Puntland to season, exporting 3,600 tons of fresh fish a month operate in its waters, contrary to the federal fisheries (Spanish mackerel, demersals, and some tuna).102 law and causing considerable local controversy. The Some Somali traders have filled the vacuum left Thai vessels appear to be trawling in the same inshore by departing Yemenis affected by their country’s grounds as the Korean-owned vessels. These vessels civil war, buying fish from fishers at sea for sale in do not report any of their catch and effort and are Oman. Billfish from Puntland are also exported by not effectively supervised, regulated, of monitored air through Nairobi to Turkey. by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources, which only licenses them. An estimated 200–300 tons a year of lobster tails are exported annually, contributing $5.0–$7.5 million a Licensing and other tax revenues paid to the year to the regional economy (Fielding and Mann Puntland government are not transparent. Lack of 1999).103 The major lobster catches (in the Eyl/Foar transparency and the unregulated activities of these area) are processed into tails at the beach, mostly vessels, which often operate very close to the coast by fishers themselves, and then sold to local traders. and on the same fishing grounds as artisanal fishers Traders use reefer trucks to freeze and store the from Somalia, are undermining faith in the authorities tails, which they later transport by road to Garowe and negatively affecting the livelihood of local fishers, or Galkayo. From there, the product is airfreighted to directly through loss of gear and indirectly through the United Arab Emirates. the destruction of stocks and habitat. As figure 7.5 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 129 7. The Fishery Subsector Figure 7.5: Fishery Productivity in Puntland, 1995, 2000, operate such facilities have regularly failed, although and 2005 ice continues to be produced in factories in Tohin and 700 Bargal, giving these isolated communities access to Marine products 600 Fish markets inland, and in Bosaso. Most other PPP cold- Lobster 500 chain facilities are mothballed, and most Bosaso Kilogramme/boat/trip Shark fishers report that they do not use ice, because of 400 its high cost. There is a pressing need to invest in the 300 right human capital to run such facilities but to leave 200 their rehabilitation, construction, and operation 100 entirely to the private sector.105 0 Ten years ago Five years ago Present time 7.3.5 Somaliland Fish resources and habitats in Somaliland are as Source: FAO 2005a. Note: These figures are based on anecdotal reports and extrapolations. They poorly understood as in the rest of the country. Its should be viewed as an indicator of trends rather than trusted as actual hard figures. coastal areas remain uncharted, and no reliable data collection is taking place. The only habitat survey data shows, catch rates in Puntland’s three most significant are from almost two decades ago (Fielding and Mann artisanal fisheries was lower in 2005 than in the 1999). Fishing activity by local fishers has been at a preceding decade, likely because of unregulated very low level for many years, with most fish landings fishing offshore and local overexploitation of spiny in the artisanal sector made by visiting Yemeni boats lobster and shark resources by artisanal fishers (FAO and Egyptian trawlers, which target shrimp in the far 2005a), though these findings should be interpreted northwest of the state. with caution, because they are based on anecdotal reports, limited local data, and extrapolations. Somaliland has a coastline of 850 kilometers, an estimated annual catch of about 4,000 tons, about A lucrative gillnet fishery in the Gulf of Aden for 730 fishers, and about 200 vessels. Most fishing gulper shark grew rapidly in 2016. The sharks are activity is concentrated at Berbera, which is home to caught in deep waters and processed to extract oil about 27 registered fishing companies, about 15 of from their livers, mostly for use abroad in health which are functional (Kelleher 2016). foods and cosmetics. The value chain is much simpler than for fish for human consumption. Many fishers Political instability in yemen has resulted in an have switched their efforts to this fishery. The influx of fishing vessels from that country. As many current effort of this species is already unsustainable. as 60 Yemeni motherships (large dhows or converted No adequate private investment has been made in fishing vessels) operate along the Gulf coast of modern and safe processing and the storing of the Somaliland and Puntland. Most of their catch is fish oil. At least for the short term, the move into marketed in the Gulf States; some is also supplied this fishery is undermining attempts to increase to the region’s inland urban centers. Sales of fish in and maintain domestic markets for fish for human Hargeisa, for instance, almost quadrupled, from 524 consumption, to the great concern of small-scale fish tons in 2012 to 2,048 tons in 2014 (Kelleher 2016), traders, most of whom are women. and the number of fish retailers rose from less than 10 in 2010 to 34 by the end of 2014 (Haibe and Miller Over the last decade, donors built cold-store and 2014). Some limited fishery activity also remains in ice facilities in Puntland, with very mixed success. Zeila, primarily for the Djibouti market, and in Maydh, Public-private partnership (PPP) agreements to which lacks any road connections.106 130 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector In 2014, a Danish NGO set up a cold-store gear remain largely dependent on export sales to the Gulf supply business and ice factory in Berbera, to States, Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Indian subcontinent. promote development of the sector. The operation failed. Some local investors built cold stores and There is a widespread perception within the Somali small ice facilities that are still in operation. They also business community that the fish subsector has purchased some larger vessels, which are generally a bright financial future. The 2015–16 drought crewed or skippered by Yemenis. A company has disrupted livestock production and greatly increased started shipping fish from Maydh to Berbera for food insecurity, reinforcing this perception and onward sale. At least three smaller companies highlighting the relative affordability of fish, which purchase fish from artisanal fishers in Berbera for costs about 30 percent as much as meat ($3 versus transport to Hargeisa market; one of them owns and $10 per kilogram). Instead of developing long-term operates its own ice plant in Berbera. sustainable and flexible fisheries with the capacity to supply high-quality products and react to changing The main constraints to expansion, including for availability, however, most investment by the Somali export to markets in Ethiopia along the Berbera business community, including investors from the corridor, are lack of fish and the poor quality of the diaspora, seeks quick profits from export markets fish landed. Already more than a decade ago, anecdotal that are perceived as lucrative.107 field observations in prime fishing markets such as Maydh showed only a few adult demersal species Confidence in such markets is misplaced. High- (Zajonz and Akester 2005), suggesting some frailty in valued species such as spiny lobster and grouper are fish stocks after many years of Yemeni exploitation. easily overfished, especially when no management measures are in place. Public bodies such as the 7.4 Opportunities and Prospects for Somaliland Business Fund and the Somali Stability Growth Fund have supported a longer-term outlook, but they have had only mixed success, because of the lack of 7.4.1 Overall Prospects for Fisheriess fisheries management and governance. In coastal and inland urban centers, demand for and the availability of fish have been increasing. There International hygiene experts embedded in the is still little understanding among consumers about Somaliland and Puntland ministries for the last its quality, however, with iced fish not generally two years produced manuals and training on the receiving a premium price. This lack of appreciation fish hygiene chain, certification, and inspection for fish quality and safety is widespread in Somalia, procedures. They have not been applied in local markets providing little financial incentive for fishers to and appear to be completely ignored by ministry staff. treat their catch safely. Moreover, many species, A complete lack of quality control or monitoring at the especially small pelagic fish and crustaceans, remain ministry level will restrict access to more lucrative export unpalatable and unsalable to domestic consumers. markets and place a burden on the more progressive Tastes are expected to change only slowly, as fishing companies in Somalia to have their own hazard economic recovery and sustainable economic growth analysis and critical control point (HACCP) processes take hold and more Somalis return from the diaspora, independently certified and monitored. It will also as investors, visitors, or returnees. In the short to mean that many foreign ventures will continue to medium term, market growth for these species will prefer to land catches outside Somalia. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 131 7. The Fishery Subsector Notwithstanding these challenges, considerable that would ensure public confidence in the system potential for increased employment, export and in the monitoring of foreign vessels and allow revenue, and increased food security exists in the federal ministry and all regional administrations the sector. Puntland in particular has considerable to profit from this subsector. potential to build on its inshore fishing industry by harnessing skills and experience already available 7.4.2 Prospects for Various Types of Fisheries within many local communities, its relatively strong Small pelagics. Small pelagics, such as oil sardine, cooperative tradition, and the country’s best boat- have good potential for expansion. Estimates of building facility, based in Bosaso. potential sustainable catch vary widely, but all exceed 50,000 tons a year without negative impact on larger Across the country, the greatest obstacle to higher tuna species (World Bank 1992; FAO 2006; Glaser fishery production and consumption is the lack or and others 2015). These small pelagic fisheries are poor quality of transport links between major urban relatively labor intensive and could therefore create centers and isolated fishing communities along the good opportunities for employment expansion. The coast, which remain reliant on trading with Yemeni introduction of new semi-industrial designs of locally vessels for their income. The unsettled security built vessels in 2016, able to land up to 4 tons of situation around the Galgala Mountains makes fish per trip, gives some cause for optimism for the accessing remote communities along the Gulf of increased size and efficiency of catches. Aden coast difficult. Smuggling presents a constraint for many Indian Ocean communities. As these species are unsalable in Somalia as a result of domestic aversion to them, future market Somalia’s 2017–19 National Development Plan opportunities depend largely on export sales of targets a 44 percent increase in the value of fish frozen products to Ethiopia and Kenya and in dried/ caught annually in Somali waters, to $65 million, salted form to the Indian subcontinent, Tanzania, and a 10 percent increase in export volume and the and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The FAO is value of marine products. Despite some concerns undertaking an initial market assessment in India about the overfishing of some specific species, there and Sri Lanka to gauge the product type and quality is strong consensus among both scientists and fishers needed to allow Somali small pelagics to enter those that considerable potential exists for sustainable markets. Potential for canning some of these species expansion within Somali waters of many fisheries, for domestic consumption in Somalia also exists. especially of oceanic species like tuna and tuna- Initial promotional efforts should concentrate on like species, in areas where upwelling is a regular smaller-scale investments at the local level, as the seasonal phenomenon. status of stocks, their seasonality, and their role in the wider ecosystem needs to be better understood With strong interest in Somalia’s offshore fisheries before large-scale investment is encouraged. from the European Union, Seychelles, and Asian tuna vessels, estimates of annual potential Coastal spiny lobster. Despite widely reported revenues from licensing fees are about $1–$2 overfishing, spiny lobsters remain an important million, potentially increasing to $5–$8 million in source of income for Somali fishers, including coastal the medium term. Efforts supported by the FAO are gatherers without their own vessels. They are also underway to develop a transparent licensing system an important source of export revenue. Coastal for offshore fisheries and to broker a revenue-sharing fishers appear to be price takers for spiny lobsters, agreement between federal and state administrations landing to merchants who chill whole lobsters or 132 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector tails (usually slowly in freezer trucks) before flying Somalia imports about $17.5 million a year of them to Gulf countries or transporting them from canned and processed fish, virtually all of which Jubaland overland to Kenya. Community regulation is canned tuna, according to the International and management have largely broken down since Trade Centre. Given the ubiquitous availability of the civil war, with soft, berried, and undersized spiny canned tuna in Somali retail shops, this figure, which lobsters all being landed. Recovery of this fishery represents a consumption of less than $1.50 per takes time, because spiny lobsters of all species capita a year, is a reliable medium-term upper limit concerned take four years in the plankton phase to potential domestic sales for a Somali canning and another four years to reach market size. Well- industry. In the long term, this subsector could designed interventions working through carefully grow very rapidly from virtually nil, by exporting to selected local cooperatives would improve and neighboring Ethiopia. possibly establish effective control of production areas. Such efforts should be combined with a wider Necessary preconditions for such developments stock analysis of the spiny lobster fishery. include a functioning Somali government operating under the rule of law, an appropriate The potential for expansion beyond the 200 tons a policy framework and incentives to investors, and year (highly variable from year to year) of lobster cooperation with neighboring states through the exports from Somalia reported by the International IOTC and possibly regional economic organizations Trade Centre is limited. Under adequate for ensuring a fair share of the fishery’s value chain. management measures and with adequate support Existing canneries in Somalia would probably need to fishers’ cooperatives, however, the provision of to modernize to ensure processing of tuna, tuna- suitable holding, cold-storage, and shipping facilities like species, and small pelagics during the season. could result in up to a fivefold increase in the price Agreements for the supply of raw material would paid to fishers (from about $5 to $25 per kilogram). have to be developed with local fishers or foreign vessels operating in Somalia. License fees by Somali Larger pelagics. Tuna and other highly migratory authorities could be higher for vessels with no species are abundant within the Somalia EEZ during economic links to the domestic economy. its four- to five-month southwest monsoon season. Established foreign industrial ventures also operate Demersal species. Illegal, unreported, and successfully in international waters outside the unregulated foreign demersal trawling jeopardizes Somali EEZ and under public-private ventures in coastal habitats, artisanal livelihoods, demersal the EEZs of some countries of the western Indian fish stocks, and the investments made by Somali Ocean, following annual fish migration cycles. The businesses in their small vessels. It must be stopped. overcapitalized canneries in the region are working Even if it ceased, however, the coastal habitat for far below their producing capacity, however. Foreign demersal stocks would be limited, because of the fishing companies might therefore be interested in relatively narrow continental shelf (except off the joint ventures with Somali investors for supplying fish Puntland coast) and the depletion of demersal stocks. to the many larger regional canneries (in Seychelles, This resource should therefore not be the basis for a Mauritius, Thailand, and elsewhere) that are in need large industrial fishery. If, however, local communities of fish to maintain production at full capacity and adopted management measures that provide for to new Somalia-based processing plants to meet stock conservation, coastal demersal artisanal growing domestic demand by Somali consumers for fisheries might contribute more than they currently such species. do to livelihoods and improved nutrition, and limited expansion into export markets might be possible. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 133 7. The Fishery Subsector Some demersal species, such as deep sea fish and Fish waste. No quantitative information is available crustaceans, could be sustainably exploited by a on fish waste in Somalia, but postharvest losses small number of well-managed semi-industrial and are reported to be high, because of the absence of industrial vessels, with reliable stock assessment cold-chain infrastructure. According to informed FAO and strong fisheries management plans. Interest experts, losses are likely at least as high as in Comoros from foreign and Somali investors in deepwater trap and in Kenya, which report losses of 30 percent. fisheries for red crab, golden crab, and various spiny lobster species in the Somali EEZ is growing. Similar Three landings centers, at Berbera, Bosaso, and interest and potential in longlining and gillnetting for Mogadishu, generate large volumes of fish waste; deepwater finfish also exists, with recent approaches many smaller communities also have problems received from a number of investors. Although disposing of fish waste. The expanding (but these deepwater fisheries cannot support heavy unsustainable) gulper shark fishery has created exploitation, the scale of the Somali EEZ is such significant environmental problems in communities that a small fleet of vessels could be sustainable. A between Laasqoray and Aluula along the Gulf of well-managed deepwater demersal fishery has the Aden coast. The tuna cannery at Habo and the potential for limited employment onboard vessels fisheries in Kismayo will soon become other large and in processing, if the government imposed sources of fish waste. license conditions. Licensing would also provide an additional source of revenue for the government. Box 7.9: Promoting Fish Consumption among Internally Displaced People In 2014, the FAO undertook a pilot project in a camp for internally displaced people outside Bosaso, identified as the most food insecure community in Puntland. It initially trained people to make dried tuna jerky from locally caught fish, purchased at times when oversupply saw prices drop and the fish would otherwise have spoiled. Trainees were taught how to use fish skeletons and head for soup. Initially, there was resistance, but women and children in particular welcomed this additional source of food, and it very soon became a staple in this community. The success of this project was such that it was rolled out to an additional 400 trainees. To mark World Food Day in 2013, the FAO undertook a publicity event at a camp outside Dollow, on the banks of the Juba River, close to the Ethiopian border, that housed mainly pastoralists with no previous knowledge or experience harvesting or eating fish. The event coupled provision of handline fishing gear for volunteers interested in catching fish in the nearby river, cooking demonstrations, free food sampling, basic training, and a fishing competition. Follow-up surveys in 2015 indicated that more than half of respondents were eating fish three times a week or more. The project has now been replicated with another 50 beneficiaries in Dollow and 600 in Jowhar district along the Shabelle River. Although river fisheries do not have the potential to generate as many exports or employment opportunities as the marine sector, they can help improve food security and nutrition for local communities along the rivers. 134 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 7. The Fishery Subsector Fish waste can and should be used in a variety of consumption habits in Somalia, where consumer ways, including for human consumption (box 7.9), resistance to eating smaller pelagic species is strong. livestock feed (silage), and energy generation. Most of it is discarded in Somalia, even where there is 7.4.4 Prospects for Fishery Governance and excess demand for animal feed, such as at Berbera Information and Bosaso ports. Small-scale fish meal plants The sustainable management of fisheries is not working with quantities of 500 kilograms to 5 tons yet a reality in any part of Somalia, partly because a day in the three main landing centers for gulper it was never part of formal government programs shark, as well as in some smaller communities, could before the civil war and because traditional solve the growing waste-disposal environmental community management practices that helped problems, create new sources of employment and fish conservation broke down in recent decades. incomes, and replace some imports of animal feeds. Reliable information on fishing activity, stocks, and ecosystems is essential to ensure that targeted 7.4.3 Opportunities for Improved Nutrition fisheries are within sustainable yields and subject Somalia’s draft 2017–19 National Development Plan to management plans and effective supervision and seeks to increase per capita fish consumption from monitoring, even if they are precautionary and run at 3.1 kilograms a year to 4 kilograms, still the lowest the community level. among any coastal African state. This increase is feasible. It will require increased landings and Somalia’s recently adopted fisheries law requires improved handling of tuna and tuna-like species, changes. Regulations and practices at the state which are most acceptable to local consumers. Both administration level also need modernization. fresh and canned tuna are widely accepted and available in Somalia, but local canners struggle to Central to future fisheries management will be both compete with imports. enforcement and an effective working relationship among the Federal Government, the states, and With wider consumer education about quality, local fishing communities that would provide the safety, and preparation of fish, there are also other stability needed to encourage investment and opportunities to expand domestic fish consumption, enable community management of coastal fisheries. including of small pelagic fish, fish byproducts, and Cooperatives should be key partners in strengthening meal. Small-scale investments in solar refrigerators, community-level fisheries management, in insulated boxes, and fish-handling training could partnership with the regional ministries. Such efforts help reduce high postharvest losses and expand the are only in their infancy, but they are key to expansion availability of fish for consumption. Alternatives, such of the sector. as fish drying, would require major changes in food Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 135 Chapter 8 REFORM AND INVESTMENT OPTIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL RECOVERY AND GROWTH Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 137 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Key Findings In the short to medium term, recovery of agricultural production, especially of the crop subsector, to prewar levels depends on better security; stronger public and community institutions; and at least a start toward rehabilitating dilapidated flood control, irrigation, and transport infrastructure. In the longer term, the country’s agricultural growth potential can be realized only by developing and implementing a comprehensive development strategy, supported by effective government institutions and interventions that would harness the dynamism of its private sector in both primary production and domestic and foreign trade of inputs and produce. This strategy—ensuring country ownership and enhanced coordination, providing economic opportunities and jobs for youth, and leveraging remittances from the diaspora for investment rather than consumption—ought to aim at achieving the following objectives: • Increase crop production beyond prewar levels, through full rehabilitation of prewar public infrastructure and adoption of improved technologies and climate-smart agriculture practices. • Protect and improve the natural environment, in light of the vulnerability all agricultural subsectors to the negative impact of climate change. • Transform private sector–led production systems in all subsectors into modern, commercial, and competitive ones that add value through agro-processing. • Strengthen household resilience and reduce hunger and malnutrition, including by introducing more modern postharvest long-term storage technologies and drought risk mitigation. The broad sectoral components of such a comprehensive development strategy include the following. • Climate change. Full implementation of Somalia’s well thought-out National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change (NAPA) and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) action plan would foster the adaptation of its agricultural systems for improved climate resilience. • Management of natural resources and rangeland. There is a pressing need to clarify land tenure arrangements; reach consensus over policies and their implementation with local communities; improve communities’ capacity to manage their natural resources in a sustainable manner; and support rangeland rehabilitation (with technical assistance and public investments for intensified soil and water conservation, reforestation and afforestation, reseeding of pastures, planting drought-resistant and fast-growing grasses and legumes, use of micro catchments to enhance water filtration, and various other flood control mechanisms). • Charcoal production. An expanded program of action to reduce charcoal production, especially from acacia trees, and conserve trees, by fostering and enforcing sustainable tapping methods and frequency for frankincense, myrrh, and gum Arabic, should be the top priority for the Puntland and Somaliland governments and donors supporting them. A second priority should be to increase value addition by supporting new private investments in quality processing. • Livestock. A top priority of public policy and assistance should be building capacity along the entire value chain to cope with animal disease threats. Open and regular dialogue with importing countries to review and update sanitary standards and other import requirements is needed. Other priorities include promoting innovative breeding and good husbandry practices and strengthening rangeland use policies, planning, and enforcement, with community participation. More emphasis should be given to supporting integrated production systems, leveraging the complex interlinkages between crop agriculture and peri-urban livestock rearing systems for an expanded and more efficient feed supply chain, and providing more value addition and diversification opportunities. Rangeland use policies, planning, and enforcement at both the government and community levels, especially regarding private enclosures, also need strengthening. For livestock products, production volumes and values that exceed those of both trend lines and the relatively modest National Development Plan targets are feasible, if effort is made to promote private sector–led value addition and the processing of animal products. 138 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth • Crops. A holistic approach that addresses technical, social, and environmental challenges in the context of climate variability and population growth is required to deliver quick, large, and sustainable production and productivity gains for staple commodities and more diversification into horticulture and other high-value crops. The main components of this comprehensive medium-term program should include (a) institutional and human capacity building, (b) rehabilitation of prewar flood control and irrigation infrastructure along the two major rivers in southern Somalia, (c) expansion of rain water catchment and moisture conservation and introduction of control measures for soil erosion and gully formation in the central and northern regions, (d) rehabilitation of prewar trunk and rural roads to improve transportation of inputs to farms and of produce to markets, and (e) improved access to and adoption of productivity-enhancing and resilient technologies (climate-smart agriculture practices). The first four components should be pursued in parallel, rather than sequentially, as institution building without investment in infrastructure will not yield gains, and initial gains in production and productivity from investment in infrastructure will likely prove unsustainable without complementary institution and capacity building. • Fisheries. The strongest growth prospects for fisheries are from Somalia’s highly productive oceanic waters, both for small pelagic and for tuna and tuna-like species that migrate through the country’s waters during the southwest monsoon. Realization of this potential will depend largely on private investment in underexploited offshore fisheries; the development of coastal and inland fisheries, including cold chains for domestic markets and improved nutrition; and processing. All levels of governments, in partnership with international fishery organizations, academic institutions, and donors, have crucial roles to play in promoting sustainable growth of the fishery subsector. They can help provide (a) basic field data collection, research, and indicators estimation, as well as capacity building in teaching, research, and professional skills; (b) a clear and effective system of fishery management, at both the federal and regional levels, based on a sound legal framework and the rule of law for private investors, including for licensing; (c) design and cost estimates, adoption, and implementation of master plans for rehabilitating and developing fish landing sites at all five major ports and redevelopment of related transport infrastructure, including rural roads connecting small fishing communities to main roads and urban markets. 8.1 Main Challenges and Priorities • destroyed or badly deteriorated infrastructure • absent or weak regulatory framework and Given its domination of the economy and the large institutional and human capacity share of the population still living in rural areas, • land erosion and degradation, from drought, the recovery and long-term sustainable growth of overgrazing, deforestation, and soil erosion Somalia’s agriculture sector is the key to addressing • high exposure to climatic and other shocks and the country’s high poverty, food insecurity, and stresses unemployment. The main cross-sectoral and • settlement of pastoralists on marginal and subsector-specific challenges affecting food security fragile areas, especially in central and northern and livestock, crop, and fishery production include Somalia the following: • low productivity of and investment in most • poverty, rapid population growth, and high crops and fisheries youth unemployment • minimal agro-processing • protracted insecurity, political instability, and • very limited access to agricultural finance. conflicts over land, pasture, and water Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 139 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Somalia’s agriculture also has natural and rich fisheries within Somalia’s EEZ along both its long geographical strengths that provide cause for northern and eastern coastlines can support a much optimism about the sector’s revival and sustainable higher volume of catches and even higher income growth. Chapters 5–7 document both the strong growth if better managed. historical performance and remarkable growth potential of the livestock, crops and forestry, and Demand-side constraints do not appear binding to fishery subsectors. The emerging commitment to the sector’s recovery or growth. Supported by rapid agriculture by governments at all levels, by private population growth and still large remittance inflows, Somali investors (including in the diaspora), and by domestic demand has been high and is expected to development partners is another strength. continue to grow for both domestically produced and imported food. There is also strong preference in Somalia has a variety of land types, large areas with Somalia’s traditional export markets (especially in the soils of relatively good fertility, and agro-ecological Gulf and Middle Eastern countries) for its agricultural conditions (see the map of agro-ecological zones products. Therefore, the focus of all public and in appendix C), which can support the economic private interventions should be on addressing the production of many livestock, crops, and fish many supply-side constraints—namely, policy, species for both domestic and export markets. The institutional, security, sanitary and phytosanitary, southern part of the country has two major rivers and infrastructural deficiencies. and relatively heavy rainfall; 35 percent of its land is suitable for expanded crop production. Its forests Reviving the crop subsector through infrastructure can recover and, with better management, provide rehabilitation; expanding all subsectors’ primary higher-quality and unexploited products. Its vast production and marketed value through better and rangelands provide a solid basis for higher offtake more modern input supplies, production methods, of livestock. The long-term trend away from pure transport, and storage links; and adding value pastoralism toward mixed agro-pastoral systems offers through processing would create many new income- a good opportunity for much improved quality of live generating opportunities, including for women and animals and more processing of animal products. The youth (figure 8.1). Most future employment will Figure 8.1: Employment and Income Opportunities in Somalia along Agricultural Value Chains irrigation services fingerlings supply new prodt devt Supply/Storage Mechanization manufacturers Fertilizers, soil Seeds, chicks, management management Input dealers land clearing Greenhouse Pest control Warehouse Innovation, Land prep., Production Equipment Marketers, specialists specialists specialists Packaging managers managers exporters Produce retailers services Factory Input Primary First level Second level Distribution & industry production processing processing Marketing (farming) Transportation, Technical assistance, Logistics, Maintenance & Repair, Safety & Quality Control/Traceability, ICT services, Financial Services Source: AfDB 2016a. 140 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth come from the revival of the crop subsector and the • Transform private sector–led production processing of its products. As the livestock subsector systems in all subsectors into modern, has likely reached the limits of its export potential commercial, and competitive ones that add of live animals, new employment opportunities will value through agro-processing. have to come from increasing commercial fodder • Strengthen household resilience and reduce production and value addition. Environmental hunger and malnutrition, including by introducing stewardship and sustainable exploitation of forestry more modern postharvest long-term storage and fishery resources will imply constrained technologies and drought risk mitigation.108 employment opportunities in these sectors, which nonetheless can generate higher incomes from Three cross-sectoral principles should guide the better quality and more processing. design and assessment of reform programs and public investments in agriculture: 8.2 Main Goals and Design Principles • strengthening country ownership and enhancing In the next one to five years, recovery of coordination. agricultural production, especially of the crop • expanding economic opportunities and creating subsector, to prewar levels will depend mostly jobs for youth. on improving security; strengthening public and • leveraging remittances from the diaspora for community institutions; and starting to rehabilitate investment rather than consumption. dilapidated flood control, irrigation, and transport infrastructure. In the long term (5–10 years), Strengthening country ownership. Application of the improving food security and realizing the growth first principle calls for empowering national, regional, potential of agriculture will require developing and local institutions to drive and own reform and implementing a comprehensive development and investment strategies and plans. The National strategy that invests in water capture and storage Development Plan 2017–19 was developed by the and harnesses and promotes the dynamism of the Federal Government, in close consultation with state country’s private sector in primary production and governments, private sector stakeholders, and the the processing of primary products. international aid community, to ensure continuity with the objectives and priorities of the 2014–16 Agricultural development strategies and New Deal Compact. It is based on five strategies: interventions should seek to achieve four main objectives: • strengthening institutional capacity at all levels. • improving and rehabilitating productive • Recover crop production to—and in the long-term infrastructure. increase it beyond—prewar levels, through full • improving sustainable production intensification rehabilitation of the prewar public infrastructure and diversification and animal health. and adoption of improved technologies and • developing and supporting efficient marketing climate-smart agriculture practices. systems and trade in local, regional, and • Protect and improve the natural environment, in international markets. light of all agricultural subsectors’ vulnerability • improving national food security, nutrition, and to the negative impact of climate change. safety of food systems (table 8.1). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 141 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Table 8.1: Somalia’s Development Priorities for the Agricultural Sector Subsector Priorities Livestock • Strengthen institutional capacity and infrastructure. • Improve livestock health services and increase productivity of both smallholders and large producers. • Increase the trade of livestock and livestock products in local, regional, and international markets. • Improve national food security and food safety systems within the livestock subsector. • Establish systems for range, forest, and wildlife management. Crops and forestry • Strengthen institutional capacity. • Improve and rehabilitate agricultural infrastructure. • Increase production. • Develop and support agricultural output commodity/marketing systems. Fishery • Harvest aquatic resources within sustainable limits. • Expand the supply of fishery products to keep pace with demand, in order to safeguard the nutritional standards and the social and economic well-being of communities depending on fisheries for their livelihood. • Help the private sector develop and expand fisheries. • Safeguard critical habitats used for both marine and inland fisheries Source: National Development Plan 2017–19. Subsector policy frameworks have been developed, development programs and projects need to include but they need operational strategies reform and effective coordination mechanisms within and across investment plans to be better aligned with the agricultural subsectors and adequate capacity- National Development Plan’s strategic objectives building components for planning, governance, and priorities, as well as stronger results frameworks implementation, monitoring, and evaluation systems. for accountability. Both the National Development Plan and subsectoral plans need greater realism, to Aid coordination needs to be improved and avoid the risk of setting policy objectives, investment simplified. Several overlapping donor coordination options, and expected results beyond the financial mechanisms exist in Somalia, including the Somalia and human capacity of governments, the donor Donor Group, the UN country team, the NGO community, and private investors. Consortium, and others. No study has evaluated their effectiveness. Donor and government agricultural Implementing policies and investment plans is much projects are small, fragmented, and isolated; many more challenging than formulating them, especially are pilots that are never scaled up, even after decades in a country like Somalia, where institutions are of “piloting.” weak and human capital low. While strengthening institutions, and building capacities at all levels, Much aid is still short-term emergency and interventions should promote community-driven humanitarian aid, especially in Southern Somalia. development initiatives, building on high levels of The food security situation is often fragile, with social capital at the local level and being mindful of frequent and severe droughts and other crises. This traditional clan-based institutions. Partnerships with kind of assistance is therefore still necessary, but it civil society organizations are also important. Academic should foster sustainability, economic viability, and and professional associations, think tanks that include resilience. The National Development Plan can bring members from the diaspora, farmer organizations, partners and government institutions closer together and production and trading cooperatives can provide in an effort to move aid beyond meeting emergency or be the conduit for technical support, mentoring, humanitarian needs toward medium- and long-term and access to professional networks abroad. New interventions that address some of the root causes 142 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth of underperformance of the agriculture sector and • support the development of a youth unit and establish the necessary building blocks for sustainable youth advisory board in Mogadishu, as a model agricultural growth. to be used in other regions. • support youth engagement in priority Expanding economic opportunities and creating rehabilitation projects (FGS 2015). jobs for youth. Increasing youth employment and involvement is among Somalia’s top strategic Public work projects to rehabilitate or expand priorities, in light of their very large share of the roads, ports, and irrigation systems can increase population, the high security risk they pose, and employment and income opportunities for urban their role as potential drivers of modernization and rural youth. Cash income generated from such in agriculture. High unemployment and lack of projects can provide starting capital for enterprising economic and livelihood opportunities among Somali youth to start or develop microenterprises and youth fuel their recruitment into terrorist groups and small businesses in livestock, horticulture, and high- their migration, both within and out of Africa. value forestry products for niche export markets (FAO 2016a). The benefits of increasing youth employment have been well documented for Africa (Filmer Somali vocational schools and universities are and Fox 2014; AfDB 2016a and for Somalia (FSG producing too few graduates in agricultural sciences 2015). Promotion of youth employment and and too many business graduates. The agriculture entrepreneurship must be part of all agricultural sector is starved of “agripreneurs” capable of development capacity and investment plans. With harnessing new approaches and technologies, such the right skills; improved access to seeds, capital, as information and communication technology, and credit; technical assistance; and an enabling mechanization, and a value chain approach. There environment, young Somali men and women can is need to create an agro-business flagship program become agents of agricultural transformation and for youth that draws on existing diagnostics and modernization in Somalia. new analyses of youth employment opportunities, to enhance both technical and agro-business Several ongoing initiatives and projects focus on training curricula and teaching capacities, and to youth employment in all major regions of Somalia. offer technical and financial support to emerging One is a joint program by the FGS and the United agripreneurs for incubating new agri-businesses and Nations that has identified various sectors, including supporting them in accessing commercial financing. in agriculture, with strong potential for creating sustainable jobs and business opportunities for the Leveraging remittances from the diaspora for youth. To address lack of or weak education and investment rather than consumption. Given its skills, identified as the main constraint youth face (as meager human and financial resources, the public distinct from infrastructural constraints, which apply sector in Somalia cannot and should not invest in to all producers), this program aimed to: commercial ventures, even in the few instances where it managed to do so successfully before the • rehabilitate or build vocational training youth war. In the high-risk business environment of Somalia, centers. only a few foreign companies can be expected to • develop training curricula for promising invest in banana revival, livestock exports, livestock occupations identified by value chain analyses. product processing, and fisheries—and they can do • implement vocational, business, and life skills so only in the most secure regions and under strong training programs. government protection commitments. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 143 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth In the short to medium term, the largest source of assets. They should also look for more effective capital for large-scale private investments in Somali ways to draw on the business acumen and foreign agriculture is its diaspora, in partnership with local experience of the diaspora, including by relying businesspeople who understand the production directly on diaspora-partnered private business and marketing challenges on the ground. Somalia’s ventures to provide donor-funded basic social services economy is already fueled largely by its diaspora, and improve donor-funded public infrastructure. which injects up to $2 billion a year in the economy. Annual remittances are greater than government 8.3 Addressing Environmental Challenges revenues and international aid combined; in the 8.3.1 The Climate Change Challenge late 2000s they accounted for about 80 percent of all foreign direct investment in Somalia (Hammond, Recognizing the impact of climate risks on the Dagan Ali, and Hendrick 2012). Many medium-size country’s future, in December 2009 Somalia became and large business ventures in Somalia already have a signatory to the UN Framework Convention on shareholders or investors from the diaspora, though Climate Change (UNFCCC). In 2013, it formulated they often play only a passive role. its National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change; in 2015, it became one of 165 Now is a critical and propitious time for diaspora countries that submitted its Intended Nationally members to increase their active involvement in Determined Contribution (INDC) action plan ahead Somalia, by providing capital, technical know-how, of the Paris Summit, outlining proposed programs and links to international and regional markets for and interventions that would contribute to emissions agri-businesses and sharing their skills and human reductions and the adaptation of its agricultural capacity with youth and small businesspeople. systems for improved climate resilience (table 8.2). Governments and the international development Together, the National Adaptation Programme of community should promote both the continuing Action to Climate Change and the INDC provide a smooth flow of remittances and their use by road map to inform and guide technical and financial beneficiaries on investments in skills and physical contributions from all stakeholders. Table 8.2: Somalia’s Priority Actions for Adapting to Climate Change Program area Activity Sustainable land • Develop national regional policies for the protection of forests, ecosystems, and biodiversity. management • Protect forests by hiring community-based rangers. • Raise awareness about the environment, focusing on ecosystems and their services and promotion of alternative energy sources. • Develop and enforce land use plans for each district. • Improve rangeland management, by developing and enforcing a system for rotational grazing. • Launch a large-scale afforestation campaign, including the distribution of seedlings to vulnerable communities. • Curb charcoal production, by banning exports, developing alternative energy plans, supporting the manufacture and use of fuel-efficient stoves, and supporting alternative livelihood options for charcoal producers. Watershed • Build medium- to large-scale infrastructure, including dams, diversions for irrigation, livestock management watering points, and boreholes. Subject all new projects to environmental impact assessments. and • Build or rehabilitate community-level infrastructure, including berkeds, shallow wells, ponds, development and other technologies, ensuring that a mechanism for maintenance is in place. • Build embankments/gabions and check-dams to protect flood-prone areas. Disaster • Strengthen the national disaster management agency responsible for coordination during management emergencies, develop early warning systems, and craft management and emergency preparedness plans. • Establish an emergency relief fund. • Build storage facilities for food and fodder, including stockpiles of emergency relief items. Source: FGS (2013a, 2015). 144 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth 8.3.2 The Natural Resource and Rangeland The following priority interventions are Management Challenge recommended to increase the adoption of improved The combination of rising temperatures, more rangeland management practices while supporting frequent drought spells, more frequent extreme the Federal Government’s action plan to combat rainfall events that result in less spatial infiltration deforestation and desertification (box 8.1): and increased runoff and erosion, and increased • Encourage sustainable rangeland management variability in water availability will have a large methods, such as grass banks, drought refuges, negative impact on rangeland productivity, related conservation easements, and reciprocal grazing mostly to poorer growth of desirable grasses, an arrangements. increase in invasive species that out-compete native • Support the formation of and dialogue with grasses, and reduced diversity of plant species pastoral associations, to negotiate productive (Thornton and others 2007). Water infrastructure is and resilient herding strategies. of crucial importance to pastoralists, who depend largely on shallow groundwater sources and surface • Support rangeland rehabilitation, by intensifying water ponds, as well as to agro-pastoralists. soil and water conservation; supporting afforestation and reforestation by planting A bold set of interventions is needed to preserve indigenous trees, reseeding pastures, bunding the livelihoods of Somali pastoralists and agro- soil, and planting drought-resistant and fast- pastoralists and increase the value added of the growing grasses and legumes; using micro- livestock subsector. Such interventions must start catchments to enhance water filtration; and from the realization of the limited planning and instituting flood control mechanisms. enforcement capacity of policies and management • Establish a monitoring system that includes by national and regional authorities and the pressing seasonal forecasts of potential drought need to reach consensus over policies and their conditions, spatial monitoring of pasture implementation with local communities and to availability, and promotion of migration and/or improve their capacity to manage their natural offtake, to allow early migration or reduction of resources in a sustainable manner. herd sizes. • Implement technical investment options for There is a need to clarify rangeland use and tenure mitigation of groundwater scarcity, such as the arrangements and to take advantage of opportunities options identified in Somaliland and Puntland for licensing the use of natural resources, including (SWALIM 2012b). water, pasture, and forest resources. Doing so The proposed actions should be integrated into a might entail instituting and supporting a process of comprehensive soil and watershed management rangeland use and tenure formalization, which could and landscape restoration plan, and existing include the issuance of new titles for demarcating productive activities should be strengthened. In the grazing commons and verifying old individual titles Golis Mountains, for instance, better management for cultivated farmland by agro-pastoralists. Key to of the harvesting of resins and medicinal and all natural resource management interventions and aromatic plants is needed. In coastal systems, investments is the need to ensure equitable access where land degradation has been advancing at and avoid creating or fueling conflicts, following the about 1 percent a year, expansion of date palm “do no harm” principle. trees and horticultural crops would offer alternative livelihoods and reduce the current unsustainable rate of mangrove destruction. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 145 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Box 8.1: Somalia’s Action Plan to Combat Deforestation and Desertification The remedial action plan described in this box was developed by Somalia’s Federal Government, with the support of its main development partners. It is a comprehensive, appropriately ambitious plan that encompasses the recommendations made above and deserves technical and financial support from the donor community. • Complete the ongoing postconflict environmental assessment, to document the degree of environmental damage. • Appoint an interministerial taskforce to finalize the National Action Plan to Combat Desertification. • Establish and support nurseries in key regions to grow and distribute seedlings of economically and environmentally important indigenous forest species and fast-growing nonindigenous forest species. • Establish pilot wood lots in deforested areas of, in cooperation with local communities. • Provide alternative sources of income for workers engaged in charcoal production. • Integrate water management, through expanded water harvesting, improved conservation, and more efficient use for both rural and urban needs, in order to increase the availability of water for crops and livestock. • Use soil and water conservation technologies such as contour terracing in sloping, dry areas to retain rain water and minimize soil erosion, in order to foster the regeneration of grasses, shrubs, and trees; reduce gulley formations; and improve rangelands for livestock grazing. • Use the media to enhance public awareness of the importance of protecting trees, in collaboration with rural community elders, educational institutions, religious scholars, and civil society. • Develop alternative energy sources and encourage the adoption of efficient gas stoves. • Adopt more efficient and mobile kilns and processes to make charcoal briquettes from currently discarded wood dust, to improve the efficiency of charcoal making. • Strictly enforce the ban on charcoal exports to the Gulf States, through local policing and legal actions against traders exporting from small ports, as well as through stricter enforcement of the ban by importing countries, as recommended by UN Security Council Resolution 2036 (2012). • More sustainably manage land and food security through enhanced productivity, using modern technology that can increase yields while reducing areas under rainfed cultivation. • Reduce the risk of natural disasters to vulnerable populations, and improve the sustainability and resilience of the agricultural sector. • Establish government rangeland reserves, in consultation with nomadic communities, and gradually remove private rangeland enclosures. • Use Prosopis juliflora for charcoal production, as India has done. Source: Somalia 2015a (Federal Ministry of the Environment). 8.3.3 The Charcoal Challenge management; awareness-raising campaigns; An expanded program of action to reduce charcoal capacity building for enforcement by production, especially from acacia trees, should communities and local governments; and a strengthen, complement, and scale up the best national charcoal reduction fund. practices used in recent and ongoing projects (see, • promotion of “green cooking” and production for instance, FGS and UN 2016). It should build on the practices and technologies, such as improved, following pillars: mobile charcoal kilns, which reduce the amount • development of a legal framework and the of wood needed. capacity of relevant institutions to enforce • promotion of safe, reliable, and sustainable national and international promulgations energy alternatives (efficient cookstoves, on charcoal from Somalia, including policies green charcoal, energy plantations, liquefied on energy, forestry, and natural resource petroleum gas, solar energy, and biogas). 146 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth • promotion of community-based programs to addressed. Fostering and enforcing sustainable strengthen the management, reforestation, and tapping (methods and frequency) of frankincense, rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems. myrrh, and gum arabic should be the top priority for the Puntland and Somaliland governments and the More effective management and greatly expanded donors supporting them. A second priority should be use of the garaanwa tree (Prosopis juliflora, increasing value addition, by supporting new private otherwise known as mesquite), including for investments in processing. charcoal and commercial livestock feed, should be promoted beyond current small-scale, innovative There is good potential in the northern and projects by NGOs, such as the one sponsored by Southern regions for the domestication of various the Pastoral and Environmental Network in the other wild forest species (such as aloe vera), as Horn of Africa (for a summary of its work program, proposed by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture in a see PENHA 2016). This extremely invasive species recent project proposal to donors. The key initiatives has already taken over wide agricultural and agro- recommended to improve the quality, sustainability, pastoral areas of the country, but it is both poorly and processing of gums and resins and to promote managed and underexploited. Exploitation of the new forestry products include the following: tree—for firewood, charcoal, timber, livestock feed, • establishing a public-private network and agency and flour and syrup for human consumption—could for documenting and disseminating information provide substantial direct economic benefits while on production, domestic and international helping keep its uncontrolled spread in check. prices, market opportunities and links, and best practices and lessons learned inside and Somali consumers complain that charcoal from outside Somalia on the harvesting, postharvest garaanwa is less efficient for cooking than charcoal handling, commercialization, and processing of made from acacia trees. This misperception stems gum and resins. from the fact that the trees are harvested too early, • supporting land use planning and adequate when they yield only small nuggets. Traditional supervision by regional governments and local harvesting of the much larger, long-established acacia communities of appropriate tapping methods, trees yields larger nuggets. If allowed to mature, frequency, and overexploitation. garaanwa is an excellent source for charcoal, highly • supporting the formation of harvester prized in India and the Americas, that is far superior cooperatives for more effective protection of to comparably mature acacia trees. Although the trees and possibly the elevation and stabilization tree is not as good a source of fresh food for livestock of wholesale prices of resins. as the acacia tree and its thorns are poisonous to • ensuring uniform grading of resins, for better humans, practices of various communities around marketing domestically and abroad. the world show how savvy management, harvesting, • establishing public nurseries where species and processing of this tree can provide many benefits traditionally grow and are harvested. to Somalis.109 • distributing and selling seedlings to small farmers by these nurseries, to expand the areas 8.3.4 The Resins Challenge under domesticated cultivation. The internationally recognized high quality of • providing technical and financial assistance for resins produced in Somalia represents a significant the provision and/or expansion of shallow wells opportunity for livelihood diversification if current along wadis to small farmers beginning to grow inefficiencies and sustainability concerns are these species. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 147 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth • establishing a clearer and more secure policy Growth options. A number of trade- and market- and regulatory business framework to promote oriented interventions can lead to substantial more private sector investment in processing increases in productivity, production, employment, ventures. and profits even under the current high-risk • encouraging the private sector to establish environment. These opportunities are found in all more steam distillation plants in towns near key subsectors and in all primary and processed products production areas, by facilitating its access to that already have solid domestic and export markets. finance, know-how, and markets. Table 8.3 summarizes the growth potential of 12 subsectors in Somalia’s main geopolitical regions. 8.4 Increasing Agricultural Production Interventions should scale up successful programs 8.4.1 Overall Reform and Investment Options and projects that increase access to inputs, The main trends of agriculture growth in Somalia technologies, credit, and product markets. They are mixed—and in the fishery case very uncertain should leverage linkages and synergies among picture. Prospects are clouded by a high degree of subsectoral and specific products’ value chains. With uncertainty regarding future security and climate good design, implementation, and risk-mitigation developments. Policy and institutional reforms can strategies, bold interventions—including policy and reduce uncertainty, but governments, donors, institutional reforms, capacity-building initiatives, and private businesses need to adopt a flexible and large physical investment projects in established, approach that considers multiple decision pathways more productive as well as emerging growth zones in choosing optimal public and private investments, or corridors, such as the Somali Coastal Shabelle especially in the short and medium terms (Koppl- Green Belt Special Economic Zone and the Bosaso Turyna and Koppl 2013). Four main decision Corridor—can yield large benefits. pathways should be considered: Innovation options. Growth in the agricultural sector • Growth options allow investors to secure will depend largely on investments in revitalizing economic or financial profits if market and improving the research and extension systems conditions turn out to be as good as or better that existed before the war. Adoption of climate- than expected. smart agriculture innovations would be extremely • Innovation options offer the flexibility to alter beneficial for production systems in the dry, harsh the focus and direction of investments, including environment of Somalia outside riverine and inter- in research and extension services, in various riverine areas. ways and at different times, and to expand or reduce production or change entry plans into Highly recommended is a new technical assistance new markets. program to promote good agricultural practices • Learning options emphasize a “wait-and-see” and climate-smart innovations for sustainable approach, small-scale and pilot interventions, intensification in irrigated and rainfed farms, animal and the deferral of large-scale investments, in husbandry, and dry-land resource management, order to benefit from lessons learned from early especially at the adoption and diffusion of the interventions. technological cycle. It is important that such programs • Risk-reducing options allow the scaling down leverage, rather than try to replace, the current or abandonment of investments to reduce extension systems of civil society organizations, potential losses. such as professional associations, which already 148 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Table 8.3: Growth Potential of Selected Agricultural Subsectors in Somalia, by Region Subsector Somaliland Puntland Southern Live animals High High High, but limited scope Dairy High, but limited scope High, but limited scope High, but limited scope Hides and skins High, but limited scope High, but limited scope Limited (niche market) Fruit High, but limited scope High, but limited scope High Vegetables High, but limited scope Low High Fodder High, but limited scope High, but limited scope High, but limited scope Sesame Limited (niche market) Low High Fisheries Limited (niche market) Limited (niche market) Limited (niche market) Cereals and pulses Limited (niche market) Low Limited (niche market) Frankincense, myrrh, Limited (niche market) Limited (niche market) Low and resins Bananas Low Low High, but limited scope Roots and tubers Low Low Limited (niche market) provide technical support and professional advice to and participatory extension approaches) should do individual producers and producer cooperatives and the following: associations. Diaspora members should be encouraged • Support applied research in selected areas of to apply their skills and devote some of their time and irrigation agriculture. funds on the ground when travelling to Somalia and • Establish and facilitate field schools that to expand the linkages between local professional provide applied training on both basic business associations and professional networks abroad. competencies and good agricultural practices, including on the use of good-quality seeds There is also a need to develop and implement of improved varieties, timely planting and a longer-term program for building a critical weeding, integrated soil fertility management, mass of research and extension personnel and integrated pest management, and efficient use infrastructure in all regions of Somalia. Doing of water and nutrients. so requires strengthening and expanding the • Establish community-based as well as commercial agricultural programs of private institutions of higher production systems for seed and fodder. education and integrating them into East African • Promote climate-smart agriculture on dry lands. agricultural research networks. There is strong • Further develop and equip community-based evidence from around the world that investing in animal health workers in pastoral and agro- agricultural research, extension, and development pastoral areas. services has high returns (World Bank 2011c). In Somalia, the lack of information on crop yields, animal husbandry, fodder productivity, animal Learning and risk-reducing options. Somalia is health, and fisheries management and the rapidly hobbled by a severe lack of basic economic and social changing climate lend urgency to the need to reassess statistics; the few statistics available are outdated, traditional technologies and adapt newer ones to inconsistent, and/or unreliable. Studies of agriculture local conditions. A program to develop and support are often localized, isolated, and fragmented. They pluralistic extension services (specialist knowledge lack conceptual and methodological rigor and Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 149 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth produce few robust findings that can inform large meeting domestic and export demand for livestock and/or long-term investment decisions. For some and livestock products. Any proposed interventions commodities, products, and parts of the value along the livestock value chain, however, should chains and/or in some regions, it may therefore be carefully consider the limitations of the pastoral best to “wait and see”—that is, to defer decisions production system, including the carrying capacity of about specific interventions while waiting for reliable its rangelands, which has been maxed out. Minimal information and the resolution of uncertainties and emphasis should be placed on animal population insecurities before committing scarce resources. growth, including restocking, and maximum emphasis on expanding processing, where value addition and A wait-and-see attitude may make sense with high growth potential lie. respect to large-scale investments in commercial fodder, poultry and chilled meat exports, sugarcane Integrated production systems. Farms practicing and rice, and various parts of the fishery subsector. settled mixed farming and urban stall feeding have Virtually all attempts to build and operate large sprouted up in Somalia to meet growing domestic cold-chain and processing facilities for fish (by demand from an increasingly sedentary and urban governments and donors) and meat (by Somali population. These demographic changes suggest businesspeople) have failed, and no one has yet that more emphasis should be given to supporting documented or evaluated them. It would thus be integrated production systems, leveraging the unwise to try to throw new money at this major complex interlinkages between crop agriculture constraint to the expansion and quality improvement and peri-urban livestock rearing systems. Many of fish and meat marketing without first studying and opportunities in processing, value addition, understanding the reasons for previous failures. and diversification, including but not limited to microenterprises, can be best pursued in peri-urban Another example is the loss of experience and settings, where the need for employment is greatest. skills during the past three decades and the lack of updated knowledge on the global and domestic Policies and projects to address pastoral issues production and marketing conditions and prospects must help build the resilience of communities to for rice and especially sugar. Before the government livestock emergencies, by mainstreaming disaster rehabilitates the dilapidated rice farms and sugarcane risk management and climate change adaptation. plantations and factories in the Middle Shabelle and In addition to support related to livestock production Lower Juba, it should conduct in-depth studies of systems, marketing, and trade, pastoralists need the competitiveness of domestic production relative healthcare, education, and better conditions for to imports as well as detailed feasibility studies on women, especially related to land ownership. the specific farms and facilities that private investors would be expected to rehabilitate under a public- Livestock trade. Trade networks and logistics for live private partnership (PPP). animals and their products have been and should continue to be fully managed by the private sector. 8.4.2 Policy and Investment Recommendations for Investments aimed at increasing assets and trade the Livestock Subsector and reducing costs along their value chains fall Live Animals within the domain of the private sector. To ease the Somalia’s livestock production system is geared procurement and transport of livestock from primary primarily toward mitigating risk. There is ample markets to ports of exit or main centers of domestic room and opportunity for the system to shift toward consumption, private sector investment is needed to 150 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth develop and upgrade watering and holding facilities; 2016 by the latest ban by Saudi Arabia on Somali fodder collection, transport, and feeding facilities; livestock exports (only temporarily lifted in July– separation pens; transport; and (regional) livestock September 2017). markets. Investments by both the public and private sectors are also needed to enhance animal Continued efforts and investment are required welfare, by improving loading and unloading ramps, to improve animal health. Many animal health watering points, livestock shades, and vaccination interventions are still financed on a project or ad pens in district and regional markets along the main hoc basis. Disease surveillance is still undertaken in transporting routes. Selling shoats at an earlier age a haphazard and passive manner, and coordination would increase annual offtake rates while curbing with neighboring countries on disease control animal population growth and related pressure on and coordination is still inadequate. The lack of grazing resources. While these are desirable results, institutionalization of the animal health system; such a step should be carefully promoted so that a the weakness of public institutions, particularly in more rapid turnover of male animals does not lead the regions; and the unclear division of the roles to poorer selection of breeders for the next year, and responsibilities of different health care service limiting the genetic pool. providers, both public and private, need to be addressed. Public functions should focus on creating a Extensive and sustained efforts are needed to build favorable policy environment for livestock trade the capacity of public institutions for ensuring and and facilitating open and regular dialogue with certifying animal health. Capacity development is importing countries to continuously review and also needed for private sector service providers. update import requirements. These negotiations can Support should focus on the following areas: be undertaken within a regional context (for example, • strengthening both public and private training with support from the Intergovernmental Authority institutions to deliver the next generation of on Development) or bilaterally. The public sector experts in rangeland management; animal could also complement private sector investment by production, nutrition, and health; meat, dairy, training relevant groups of people, such as marketing and food processing technologies; and genetics. associations and user groups, to manage and maintain their infrastructure and facilities. The key • staffing public institutions with qualified priority areas for public investment in support of live personnel to deliver effective services, at the animal trade are related to animal health, promotion federal and regional levels. of feed systems for expanded and higher-quality • helping livestock professional associations fodder supply, and genetic improvement. There is increase their outreach and coverage and also a need for public promotion of more processing improve their service delivery while providing of animal products and value addition. their members with continuing training opportunities and better links with agro-vet Animal health. Building the capacity along the entire stores at the community level. value chain to cope with animal disease threats and to limit the occurrence of transboundary animal PPPs and professional associations need to diseases, zoonotic diseases, and vector-borne institutionalize the delivery of veterinary and animal diseases (such as Rift Valley Fever) should be a top health services across the production chain. The priority of all livestock and animal health policies and public sector should invest in disease surveillance programs. Animal diseases and outbreaks remain a and control, by establishing and upgrading animal continuous threat, a point underscored in December health facilities, such as quarantine stations, border Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 151 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth posts, and laboratories, and improving early testing milk, demand for fodder is also high. Its production and certification systems, whether publicly managed is increasingly important in all regions, because or operated by professional veterinary associations. many livestock producers and traders already rely Enhanced domestic diagnostic capacity and on animal feed to mitigate the seasonal lack of grass collaboration with reference laboratories for often pasture and tender shoots of shrubs and trees and to reported diseases would ensure early disease improve animal quality. confirmation and allow more rapid and effective control and response mechanisms. Early testing This subsector presents good opportunities for and a better disease prescreening, testing, and smallholder farmers, who can switch cultivation certification system would greatly reduce the of their land between crops and fodder to reduce number of rejections at ports. It should start at risk and maximize income. There is also evidence of the main livestock markets and along major trade increasing commercialization of fodder production, routes, after which cleared animals would obtain with animal traders and exporters paying producers a permit for transit onward. Preliminary findings in advance to ensure timely delivery of fodder. of such a system—implemented so far only in Experience, technical knowledge, and large-scale Galkayo, Puntland—are promising, according private investment are still very limited, however. to FAO internal assessments. Complementary investments in human capacities and organizational A value chain analysis of the fodder/feed subsector structures should be supported. should be undertaken, with a focus on existing “feed corridors” connecting fodder production A national disease surveillance and control system areas to regional markets and terminal ports. It should be coordinated with the Intergovernmental should consider the risk that feed development Authority on Development, which bears could constrain pastoral mobility and fuel clan responsibility for regional coordination of disease conflicts over scarce irrigated land resources. As control, harmonization, and coordination of animal feed production is at the nexus of crop and policies and interventions, as well as information livestock agriculture and has significant environmental sharing and reporting. Information management implications, there is also a need to assess, align, and and dissemination should be improved using harmonize the policies and institutional arrangements information and communications technology to of various line ministries. Large-scale public interventions increase outreach. Considering the high risk of to promote the production of fodder should wait for emerging and reemerging diseases and the major the findings of such a feed value chain analysis. economic threat they can unleash—and the most recent Saudi export ban—the level of emergency Several recommendations can already be preparedness and response at federal and regional advanced about short-term interventions to levels also needs to be improved. Establishment of promote fodder production: an early warning system that would integrate animal • Strengthen capacities to deliver extension disease risk assessment and risk communication and services to farmers. Agro-pastoral farmer field the preparation of contingency plans are important schools can be used to train trainers, farmers, and urgent steps. and small seed producers, including through field demonstrations, to promote the adoption Fodder production and feed systems. Fodder has the greatest impact on the body conditions of livestock of good agronomic practices, including smart and on milk yields. Given the booming live animal irrigation and the use of high-yielding, nutrient- trade and the growing domestic urban demand for rich drought-tolerant plant varieties. 152 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth • Support fodder seed production and marketing. concerns about its sustainability. People who move Support should be provided to research to (peri-) urban areas also need support in integrating and extension on the introduction, testing, livestock-keeping activities in their new livelihood. multiplication, and distribution of suitable seeds and planting materials, both local and introduced Improving animal genetics. As natural resources varieties, coupled with sound management become ever-more scarce and climatic change practices for open range fodder production (for becomes the new reality across Somalia, investments example, deferred grazing during flowering and in animal genetic research and breeding programs seed setting). Support should also be provided to are required to enhance the productivity and agro-vet stores in all regions, in both distributing adaptability of native livestock breeds. Community fodder seeds and marketing feed and fodder. participation should be sought in promoting • Improve the processing, storage, and transport innovative breeding practices. Initiatives involving of fodder, either as hay or silage, to minimize community participation are expected to be wastage and quality losses and ensure year- welcomed by Somali pastoralists struggling to cope round availability. Efficiency gains can be realized with the unprecedented degradation of their natural in optimizing the collection and transportation environment and climate change. of fodder by promoting boxing rather than bulking of fodder. The challenge will be to improve productivity traits • Explore alternative animal feed options, while maintaining adaptive traits. Toward that end, including harvesting and processing Proposis the focus should be on selective breeding within the julifora pods for animal feed, and enhanced existing stock to take advantage of its time-tested conservation of browse tree forage. capacity for adaptation, resistance, and rebound to local conditions, which include a harsh climate, • Consult and involve pastoral communities in severe droughts, poor feed quality, and endemic the design and management of feed production diseases. Only in special cases (for example, peri- schemes, building on their traditional urban dairying), should introduction of new breeds governance mechanisms. be considered. Breed improvement interventions Restocking. Severe droughts that kill large numbers should include the following: of animals are a catastrophic event for poor • participatory genotype characterization households that is closely related to their destitution, (taxonomy of genetic differences) through marginalization from community life, and migration phenotypic (physical appearance) features. to urban and peri-urban areas. As traditional means • training of communities on simple breeding of restocking have proved inadequate, large-scale concepts and intensive feeding of selected breeding animals with improved fodder. emergency restocking programs by NGOs and other • development of community-based schemes development partners have been undertaken across for stock upgrading, including participatory the country, often by giving female shoats to poor selection of superior animals, leveraging pastoralist households. Restocking to critical livestock pastoral knowledge . threshold levels with the right livestock composition, • promotion of management systems that not which ought to include also larger animals, is only increase production and productivity of important. Such programs, however, should not aim indigenous breeds but protect the improved to restore the predrought livestock population, given genetic pool.. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 153 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Livestock Products are needed to address key bottlenecks along the Ample opportunities exist to expand and modernize milk value chain, including animal health issues the value chains for all livestock products, and the transporting, processing, and marketing of from raw milk and hides and skins to hygienic dairy products. As women dominate the dairy value slaughterhouses for chilled meat exports, small- chain, such investments would contribute greatly to and medium-scale dairy production, and poultry women’s economic empowerment. keeping. Gradually moving up the value chain in the To ensure consumer safety and to upgrade the livestock subsector would have the greatest impact value chain for milk, the government should focus on improving nutrition, increasing incomes and on five sets of priority actions: employment (including of youth and women), and diversifying products. • Provide extension support to dairy producers, to expand productivity and reduce seasonal Somalia’s National Development Plan foresees a fluctuations. cumulative increase of production and consumption • Organize and train people across the dairy chain, between 2016 and 2019 of 20 percent for milk, 15 in order to allow them to make bulk purchases percent for hide and skins, and 12 percent for meat. of inputs. Processed milk and meat volumes are expected to • Provide capacity development and basic increase only modestly, by 10 percent and 4 percent, equipment to women’s cooperatives. respectively. The National Development Plan seeks • Develop and implement a policy and regulatory to increase the export value of both processed meat framework development, including the Dairy Act and hide and skins by 10 percent. With a concerted and Code on milk hygiene, to govern operations effort to promote the value addition and processing in the dairy sector. Strengthen the Quality Control of animal products, much higher production Commission, to provide inspection and testing to volumes and values are feasible in the medium term, ensure compliance with milk quality standards. contributing to strong job creation. • Improve coordination and marketing, by facilitating the establishment of a Dairy production and processing. Rapid population growth and urbanization have increased and will multistakeholder platform that brings together further increase demand for milk and other dairy dairy sector actors to identify problems, products. Domestic production is still well below promote solutions, and share information about demand. Despite increased production, Somalia opportunities in the sector. remains a net importer of both raw and processed milk and other dairy products. Meat production and processing. Although consumers in Somalia’s traditional export markets in Most investment in dairy sector infrastructure the Gulf prefer fresh meat, Somalia could still export (such as milk collection centers and cold storage) chilled and frozen meat. Attempts by the private and processing facilities (such as low-cost artisanal sector to do so have ended mostly in failure, however, plants to pasteurize milk and process yoghurt and for reasons that are not fully understood. Further cheese products for the domestic market) should be analysis is recommended to understand past failures undertaken by the private sector; larger ventures before recommending large-scale private investment could be promoted through PPPs. Public investments in new meat-processing ventures for export. 154 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Local processing for the rapidly expanding domestic Hides and skins. With world and regional demand for urban market is still feasible and profitable. The leather on the rise, professionalizing the Somali bulk of investment in slaughterhouses and other hides and skins sector could attract private facilities for meat processing and value addition sector investment from abroad. Growth of this needs to come from the private sector. The public subsector would expand income-generation and sector still has a major role to play, as illustrated by employment opportunities for local traders, the sustainable meat value chain Namibia put in entrepreneurs, and youth. place through a PPP (box 8.2). Box 8.2: Lessons from Sustainable Development of the Meat Value Chain in Namibia With an exported volume of about 12,000 tons in 2010, Namibia is a relatively small player in the global beef market. It cannot therefore compete purely on price. Its unique production landscape, in which cattle production takes place in a delicate natural environment, made a differentiation strategy based on environmental sustainability a logical choice for increasing competitiveness. Namibia’s dynamic and market-driven stakeholders in the beef value chain collaborate through the Meat Board of Namibia, a PPP. Through meetings, market research, and technical support, the board facilitates synergies at the value chain level. It is in part through this board that the Farm Assured Namibian (FAN) Meat scheme was established. FAN Meat markets free-range, hormone-free beef with guaranteed animal welfare standards. It combines good agricultural, transport, veterinary, and manufacturing practices. FAN Meat guarantees customers that at least 70 percent of the animals’ diet is based on grazing. To ensure that this grazing does not destroy Namibia’s fragile ecological environment (through bush encroachment, for example) or reduce alternate economic opportunities (through loss of wildlife, for example), the board promoted new community-based pasture management practices and individual ranch management practices through training and changes in the legal framework. A key element was that the reduced pressure on natural resources was based not on reducing herds but rather on better managing them (through a holistic management approach that focuses on restricted movement of the entire herd as opposed to the traditional approach of allowing animals to roam freely). This approach both increased the amount of meat produced per hectare and reduced the environmental footprint of beef production. The national strategy is embodied in the marketing strategy of Meatco, Namibia’s largest beef processor. In September 2008, it launched its Nature’s Reserve brand and shifted from selling wholesale to selling directly to high-end retailers or food-service providers. The brand allows quality-conscious consumers to distinguish Namibian beef from other supplies. The success of this strategy is revealed by the fact that Namibia’s exports have grown faster than Botswana’s, especially in volume. Namibia also exports more higher-value fresh-chilled boneless cuts, sells more into high- end markets, and commands prices that are 20–40 percent higher than those received for Botswana beef. With a larger share of the total kill sold as “quality-differentiated” cuts, exporters have been able to pay their farmers premiums of $28 million a year above the prices received by comparable South African farmers. Source: Neven (2014). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 155 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Private investment from domestic and diaspora Microenterprises. Although much of the livestock sources is needed to strengthen the local supply subsector needs efficient commercial investors chain. Public support should focus on training actors and operators, there is a role for microenterprises along the value chain, including butchers and flayers in a number of ancillary activities. Such activities on proper slaughter and flaying techniques and use include the transformation of crop residues into of appropriate flaying knives to enhance the quality fodder; commercialized fodder production from of hides and skin; pastoralists and farmers, hide rangeland rehabilitation; livestock breeding and and skin collectors, and traders on proper handling, animal finishing/fattening; and cottage industries curing, drying, and preservation of hides and skins; in value addition of honey, meat, hides and skins, and local entrepreneurs and professionals to improve bones, and milk. Facilitating the establishment technical knowledge and skills in leather tanning and and growth of viable community-based livestock- manufacture of leather goods. Business development focused microenterprises requires much of the same support should be provided to local tanneries. The support as in other economic sectors—namely, public sector should also enforce environmental access to microfinance and training of communities regulations for tanneries, to prevent environmental in group dynamics, business development, product damage and subsequent popular backlash. development, and marketing. Poultry. Demand for poultry and poultry products, 8.4.3 Policy and Investment Recommendations for such as eggs, is increasing in urban areas. Promoting the Crop Subsector improved indigenous chicken breeds for expanded In the immediate prewar years, the crop household poultry production in peri-urban areas subsector in southern and northwestern Somalia and the associated downstream marketing of eggs demonstrated its potential for meeting a very large and poultry meat can provide opportunities for share of domestic food demand and generating employment and income generation, particularly for sizable export earnings. The near-term challenge women and youth, while meeting at least part of the is to enable the revival of cereals (maize, sorghum, large and growing urban demand for an alternative rice, and millet); legumes (cowpea and mungbean); source of animal protein, which is currently met vegetables; and banana cultivation and to support by imports. Development of the poultry subsector other successful crops, such as sesame and lemons, would also contribute to income, employment, while making all of them more productive. The food and nutrition security, and women’s economic medium- and long-term challenge is to attract larger- employment in rural areas. For household- and scale investment in expanding land under irrigated village-based poultry production, support and cultivation beyond prewar areas, raising yields to facilitation should be provided for access to their full potential, and promoting higher value inputs (started pullets [hens 15–22 weeks old], addition through processing. poultry vaccines, and drugs); services (health and extension); and finance (start-up funds or credit). In southern Somalia, only about half of the Promotion and support for large-scale commercial previously irrigated area is currently under poultry production requires an in-depth and cultivation; the rest suffers from more frequent quantified analysis of the value chain to assess floods and poor water flows. Road transport Somalia’s potential competitiveness and identify the infrastructure in Southern Somalia is in such a state challenges to establishing an adequate input supply of disrepair that the current cost of transporting system and a secure health monitoring system. crops to markets is much higher than it used to be. 156 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth There is enormous potential for increases in A holistic approach is required to deliver quick, crop production and productivity just from large, and sustainable production and productivity rehabilitating and upgrading prewar flood control gains for staple food commodities and diversify and irrigation public infrastructure. Rehabilitation horticulture, pulses, and other high-value crops. of this infrastructure could allow up to a doubling A comprehensive sectoral development program of cultivated areas within the riverine system of is needed that combines technical, social, and the Shabelle and Juba rivers, opening up significant environmental feasibility in the context of climate additional crop areas for smallholders while still variability and population growth. The main allowing for recession agriculture to continue. A components of such a medium-term program should feasibility study conducted in 2014 shows a potential include the following: irrigation area of more than 12,000 hectares just • rehabilitation of prewar flood control and around Jowhar (SWALIM-FAO 2014). irrigation infrastructure along the two major rivers in Southern Somalia. In the northern and Southern dry lands, the challenge • expansion of rain water catchment and moisture is to harvest the large volumes of water that arrive conservation and the introduction of control in a very short period of time (unpredictably and measures for soil erosion and gully formation in loaded with sediment and debris) and to access the the central and northern regions. groundwater available in many locations for many • institutional and human capacity building. months after the rains have ceased, both along wadis • rehabilitation of prewar trunk and rural roads and in natural underground rivers and reservoirs. to improve the transport of inputs to farms and Crop cultivation is still feasible and profitable in produce to markets. selected areas of such regions, but it does not respond • establishment of an enabling environment well to conventional irrigation techniques, which (policy and regulations) for testing and are feasible in the southern regions. For instance, improving awareness of, access to, and adoption oasis farming in Puntland to produce cash crops for of productivity-enhancing and resilient local markets could be considerably expanded with technologies. investments in more efficient water harvesting and usage techniques, including shallow wells, check dams, sand dams, spate irrigation, micro-irrigation, The first four components should be pursued in and adoption of other oasis agriculture practices. parallel, rather than in sequence, as institution building without investments in infrastructure will In all regions of the country, Somali farmers rarely not yield tangible gains and initial and partial gains use improved seeds and inputs, good agronomic in production and productivity from investments in or climate-smart practices, or risk-mitigation infrastructure will likely prove unsustainable without strategies. Most banana farmers are familiar with complementary institutions and capacity building to farm inputs such as urea and nitrogen-phosphorus- operate and maintain them. potassium (NPK), but vegetable growers still use only animal manure to improve soil fertility. After The rehabilitation of irrigation and flood control three decades of emigration of skilled and educated infrastructure, mainly along the Shabelle and professionals, there is also a dearth of technical Juba rivers, should aim at rehabilitation of all (or capacity for managing irrigation systems. most of) the prewar flood control and irrigation Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 157 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth schemes—including headwork, primary and • clear responsibilities for water management secondary conveyance systems, night/regulating and rehabilitated water infrastructure, agreed storage tanks and on-farm structure offtakes, field upon by stakeholders from communities and water application and drainage technologies, and the Federal Government. access roads—within five years. Selection of the • rebuilding of social capital to ensure efficient infrastructure to rehabilitate should be based on water use at the grassroots level through biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional criteria, the establishment of sustainable water user as well as cost and potential for large-scale economic associations. impact. Beyond the medium-term rehabilitation • partnerships with farmers, professional associations, of prewar schemes, full technical and economic and private investors in schemes to improve service feasibility studies will be needed for proposed delivery, input supply, and marketing. expansion or new projects. • consultations and agreement between the government of Ethiopia and the FGS, as well as There is also a need to focus on water catchment, coordinated planning over water utilization and storage, and efficient utilization in rainfed or agricultural development plans for the Shabelle groundwater-dependent areas. In Somaliland, and Juba basins. Puntland, and other dry agro-climatic zones of Southern Somalia, investment priorities should The sustainable intensification and diversification focus on the rehabilitation and expansion of water component should aim at increasing productivity, harvesting infrastructure as well as on the promotion reducing postharvest losses, building resilience, and of soil and water conservation techniques using a mitigating risk across all agro-ecological zones. watershed management approach. Infrastructure Climate-smart agriculture promotes sustainable should include shallow wells, check dams, sand farming methods that would meet all of these dams, soil bands, spate irrigation, micro-irrigation, goals. It requires the adoption of good agricultural and other water-saving technologies. practices, such as (a) intercropping (through mixed cropping, rotations, agroforestry, green manuring, Several projects have been successful in Somalia. and so on); (b) integrating livestock and crop One is an EU-funded vegetable-growing project that production; and (c) integrating pest and disease relies on shallow wells and solar water pumps in the management. Sustainable and efficient rainfed and Dur area of the Sanaag region. It could be scaled up oasis farming in Somalia’s dry lands requires location- along most other seasonal water courses in all other specific innovations, such as use of proper inputs; dry areas of the country. Another is the construction crop varieties that are tolerant to drought, diseases, of microdams for harvesting and storing water from pests, and floods; drip irrigation and efficient soil seasonal rivers that can be used for on-farm irrigation moisture conservation techniques; and methods for during droughts. reducing postharvest losses. The institutions and capacity-building component Agriculture research and extension. Somalia needs should aim at ensuring the following: to rebuild its agricultural research and extension system. It should promote a hybrid form of extension • better governance related to access to and that combines a public extension system for small- use of land and water, including clarification scale farmers producing staple crops and a private of tenure systems and resolution of conflicts sector–led extension network of cooperatives, agro- related to illegal occupation of farmlands. dealers, and contract farming extension for farmers involved in cash crop production. 158 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth As part of such an effort, in-country research civil war and stored outside the country. Extension capacity needs to be established, with strong could offer certification systems and support the operational linkages to international and regional gradual development of both formal and informal research centers—including the Consultative seed systems, supporting community-based seed Group on International Agricultural Research multiplication (including for root and tuber and (CGIAR), the Intergovernmental Authority on fodder crops). Development, and national and international universities—to test innovations and identify Ensuring access to good-quality seeds and multiple scaling-up approaches. All new technologies varieties for crop diversification (for sweet potato, entering the county should be tested before they cassava, and orphan crops such as sorghum, cowpeas, are disseminated to the farming community. and mungbeans) would increase food security and expand multiusage crops (for human and animal Innovation hubs could be introduced in crop (and feed, as well as for biofuels). In an ideal integrated livestock) production zones across the country, seed system, both formal and informal seed systems linked to existing field schools. They could include would be used to create and disseminate improved hubs along the Shabelle and Juba rivers for testing seed varieties at scale. Building on the informal seed irrigated crop technologies. Hubs would carry out field system is advantageous because it already works at research in climate-smart agriculture approaches for scale, is market driven, moves a wide range of crops, existing food security crops (including orphan crops) works everywhere, rarely breaks down entirely, and investigate how to increase productivity for fruits distinguishes between seeds and grains, and is highly and vegetables. They would assess new germplasm dynamic. Strengthening the informal seed system with high production potential, seed system must go hand in hand with building the formal seed development, water use efficiency, conservation, system, because seed multipliers need guaranteed transboundary pest and disease management, and access to initial supplies of high-quality seed (either postharvest loss reduction. The required learning/ foundation seed or less costly certified seeds). implementation process, which would provide valuable evidence-based policy recommendations Input supply. There is a need to support the creation to decision makers, would benefit greatly from the of an enabling environment for private sector–driven involvement of field technicians from the federal, initiatives (for example, input suppliers, cooperatives, state, and district authorities (where existing). New contract farming, other agro-dealer businesses) that technologies would be promoted in specific zones would ensure the quality, accessibility, and on-time based on their agro-ecological conditions. delivery of fertilizer, pesticide, seeds, water pumps, irrigation pipes, tools, and equipment. Seed development systems. Somali farmers who raise staple food crops rely mainly on their own Cereals. By 2019, the National Development Plan saved seeds. Other farmers import seeds, with the intends to increase the annual output of the two main attendant risk of spreading viral diseases and pests cereals, maize and sorghum, by at least 20 percent, and introducing new diseases. from 126,800 to 152,160 tons; double the number of households growing and consuming nutrient-dense Increasing reliance on a few crops presents vegetables, from an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 tons; some risks. Research needs to be strengthened and increase the annual cultivation of underutilized to evaluate local germplasm and to receive and or orphaned crops, such as cassava, from 1,170 to screen disease-free germplasm collected before the 5,000 tons. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 159 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth There are many constraints to increasing yields between farms and urban markets and private of rainfed crops. But investment in improved investment in cold-storage facilities are needed to irrigation and water catchment infrastructure and support growth. farm management practices could double or triple yields and double the land under cultivation. Better The banana subsector has high export potential to postharvest and storage facilities and techniques for Gulf and other Middle Eastern markets. To realize cereals at both the household and community levels its potential, this subsector needs three specific are highly cost-effective and would contribute greatly interventions: to food security and income stabilization. The public • resolution of the land occupation by militia sector should aggressively promote with awareness leaders and members with no farming campaigns, technical assistance, and modest background or knowledge that occurred in the subsidies of private and community investments in early 1990s. storage facilities, which create a reserve to sell when • introduction of tissue culture technology that prices are favorable, ensure better grain quality, can provide uniform banana seedlings free from and reduce exposure to dangerous aflatoxins and insects and diseases. resulting losses (which are as high as 30 percent). • development of contractual arrangements and Sesame. Many sesame-processing companies outgrower schemes between old and new banana operate in Somalia, and some of them are already and fruit marketing and export companies and exporting. Their growth potential depends largely plantation and smallholder farmers. on the extent of public investments in flood control, irrigation, and transport infrastructure. If these If the public sector improves security, resolves land investments are made, private investment in both disputes, and creates an enabling environment, primary production and value addition is expected private outgrower schemes will make the necessary to follow. More efficient and higher-capacity pressing improvements in production practices, postharvest machines would increase sesame oil productivity, handling, storage, and packaging. quality, and competitiveness in both domestic and export markets. All growers with 10 hectares or more of land under banana cultivation need to dig new boreholes or Access to equity or credit by the private sector rehabilitate nonfunctional ones to irrigate the crop has not proven a constraint to this subsector’s and strengthen resilience to droughts and river- remarkable growth. Therefore, the federal and drying. The government has only a regulatory role regional government and their international to play. To help reduce the high out-of-pocket cost development partners can focus their support on of new boreholes for small banana farmers, however, technical assistance, in order to promote both entry it could channel financial assistance through by new investors and expansion of existing ventures. cooperatives (with at least 10 hectares of land). Bananas and other horticulture. The same Sugarcane and Rice. Sugarcane production has interventions recommended for cereals and sesame ceased since the collapse of irrigation infrastructure would support the recovery and growth of pulses and the looting of refining factories. Sugarcane and legumes, roots and tubers, and other fruits remains one of the highest-yielding crops, well and vegetables. The poor state of roads and storage adapted to the soil and climate of southern Somalia’s facilities undermines the potential for horticulture. irrigated lands along its two major rivers. Sugar is one Public investment in improving transport links of the highest value-added agro-processed product. 160 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Rice farmers in the Middle Shabelle have survived 8.4.4 Policy and Investment Recommendations for three decades of government absence, albeit at the Fishery Subsector much reduced production levels. The rehabilitation If it were properly managed and able to attract and renewed operation of prewar public assets, experienced investors, Somalia’s fishery subsector including through hydropower generation in the could increase sustainable production (for both Lower Juba and improved services, would greatly domestic consumption and export), incomes for enhance economic recovery and employment in the fishers and traders, and government revenues. surrounding regions and reduce the very large rice Although there are opportunities for freshwater and sugar import bill. fisheries, the best growth prospects are in Somalia’s highly productive oceanic waters, which host In-depth analysis of the competitiveness of local small pelagic fish and tuna and tuna-like species production relative to imports is needed before during the southwest monsoon. Realization of this public budgets and donor funds support the revival potential will depend largely on private investment of the dilapidated prewar, publicly owned rice to expand underexploited offshore fisheries; farms, sugarcane plantations, and sugar-refining develop coastal and inland fisheries for domestic factories around Jowhar in the Middle Shabelle markets; and improve national nutrition, including by and Mogambo and Mareerey in the Lower Juba. strengthening cold chains; and move into processing. If private investors were willing to rehabilitate the assets in these subsectors in return for access to The public sector has a major role to play in fishery the land where the assets are located, it would be management and promotion, which are weak or reasonable for the government to enter into joint absent; in licensing, which is nontransparent; and in ventures with them. landing site and transport infrastructure, which is in very poor condition following decades of neglect and This scenario could conceivably apply to the underinvestment, even in Somaliland and Puntland. rehabilitation of the Mareerey Juba Sugar Project to The following recommendations (Kelleher 2016) its end-1980 first-phase capacity. The government reflect the findings of chapter 7: and the donor community would invest only in the rehabilitation of flood control and irrigation • Enhance the protection of offshore fisheries using infrastructure and power generation. the coast guard. • License foreign fishing and use the revenue The most realistic option for rehabilitating the generated to develop the sector, starting with Mogambo rice project would be to distribute the relatively peaceful and accessible areas, such as publicly owned land of the project to small farmers Somaliland and Puntland, and gradually including in the area, with the government and donors funding other areas as conditions improve. only the rehabilitation of irrigation, drainage, flood • Support small-scale fishery production and control embankments, and the rural roads linking marketing with equipment, cold storage, and producers to the market. Public funds could also be used to provide loans to enable cooperatives/ marketing, through support of small and medium- associations to purchase needed agricultural size enterprises. equipment, including a small rice mill and tools and • Build capacity at all levels, including business other inputs needed to grow rice and other crops. development for stakeholder associations. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 161 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth • Build fishing jetties, cold-storage facilities for A good fisheries information system would fisheries association, and roads for access to require capacity building; commitment from markets in major urban centers and export all stakeholders; stronger partnerships among locations. local universities, suitable international academic • Ensure effective aid coordination by the FGS and and research partners, and regional fisheries the governments of Somaliland, Puntland, and management organizations; and effective other emerging coastal states. monitoring of all (or at least the main) landing sites. The starting point for improving fisheries Fisheries information and management. In management is to develop a strong data collection the short term, two priorities can help increase and analysis framework on fishing activity, including sustainable fishery production and its contribution effort, species identification, landed quantities, to the economic development of the country: (a) species mix in landings by fishing gear type, and stock establishment of a comprehensive, secure, enabling status.110 It is also important to start collecting price environment, based on a stronger legal and clearer information (ideally both wholesale and retail) for the regulatory framework and the rule of law for private most commonly consumed and traded fish products, investors, including for licensing and (b) creation of a a task that could be added to the existing price survey system for collecting data and estimating indicators. work by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, if modest funding for it could be secured. In Experts disagree on actual and potential volumes parallel and while waiting for better data, a weight- and values of landings of Somali fisheries, of-the-evidence approach should be adopted, which because there are no reliable official estimates the FAO has pioneered for generating key indicators, and the estimates of individual studies are including actual and potential stocks, in the absence based on extremely limited data, scant scientific of more formal data.111 evidence, questionable self-reporting, and many methodological assumptions. A strong data Highly migratory species’ fisheries and processing. collection and analysis framework is badly needed The most immediate opportunity for fiscal revenues for reliably estimating potential catches, formulating is the licensing of highly migratory species fisheries to evidence-based policy, making licensing decisions, offshore vessel owners, especially for tuna. The first and planning investment by both the public and the foreign applicants for licenses are already in place, but private sectors. initiatives face political uncertainty and reluctance from various regions and the FGS regarding revenue Alternatives to traditional ministry-run systems for sharing. It is recommended that support for public fisheries information systems and management are investment and other fisheries interventions by highly recommended. Public institutions should limit donors be tied to progress on transparent licensing their activities to making policy. Private sector entities agreements with tuna fisheries and public disclosure should handle monitoring and surveillance, including and sharing of revenues. Without a firm stance by research, quality control, extension services, and development partners, it is likely that this revenue data collection, as well as license issuance and stream will continue to fall short of potential and the revenue management, as is the case in Puntland. political process continue to be a source of conflict Steps in this direction have already been taken. The among different levels of governments and mistrust wholesale embrace of such an approach requires a on the part of the public. deep change in governance culture among politicians and broad stakeholder consensus. 162 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth The private sector will decide whether to invest semi-industrial fishing vessels include Maydh (now in expanding the two small tuna canning factories financed though the Somaliland Development and/or to build more factories. Expansion of Fund), Laasqoray, Qandala, Garaad, Hobyo, Jazeera, processing would require increased tuna landings. Merca, and Barawe. Major upgrades and expansion Some incentives, such as lower licensing fees for of cold chains, fish landing sites, and road links domestic tuna vessels, may help in this regard. are needed, not only to supply more fish to inland Somali towns but to export to Ethiopia. International hygiene experts embedded in the Somaliland and Puntland ministries for the last Fishery-related development opportunities at all two years have produced manuals and training on ports are being missed for lack of planning. All of the fish hygiene chain, certification, and inspection the main ports urgently require master plans that procedures, but they have not been applied in set aside areas for future fisheries infrastructure and local markets and are mostly disregarded by the guide complementary public and private investments ministries. Without long-term funding, strong back- in the medium and long terms in cold chains and up support, and measurable targets for ministries to transport infrastructure.112 Detailed business achieve to trigger further support, similar problems plans, feasibility and design studies, and social and will occur in other aspects of governance. environmental impact assessments at each port are also needed. Table 8.4 presents estimates of the Port infrastructure. Somalia has only a few costs of port infrastructure. natural harbors currently able to support large cargo and industrial fishing vessels, at Berbera, For centuries, Mogadishu’s Old Port was the main Bosaso, Mogadishu, and Kismayo, with the Hafun trading center of the Southern region, especially promontory having the potential to host a fifth for the Banaadir and neighboring inland regions. port. None of these ports is buoyed or lit for fishery Until construction of the new commercial port, in the purposes. The International Maritime Organization 1970s, it was the main fisheries harbor in Somalia. has prepared detailed buoyage plans for all main The Old Port site provides the ideal location for the ports, but funding to implement them has yet to vital assets of fisheries’ patrol vessels, for berthing of be obtained. Other sites with potential for smaller foreign vessels for inspection, and as the operational Table 8.4: Estimated Costs of Building or Improving Fishery Landing Sites at Major Ports (thousands of dollars) Environmental and Social Site Type of work Construction Impact Assessment Port works 5,000 — Mogadishu Old Port Shore works 3,000 — Bosaso New port 15,000–20,000 500 Environmental Impact Berbera Phase 2 Port works 5,000 Assessment completed; business plan required Hafun Peninsula Shore works 3,000 250 Site works 2,000 100 City landing 1,500 — Kismayo Somali Marine Products — 2,000 Project Total 51,500 — Source: FAO Somalia (preliminary unpublished estimates). Note: — Not available. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 163 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth base for large-displacement domestic fishing operating below its potential and is under pressure crafts. The site is also ideal for access to markets in to make way for more lucrative cargo vessels. Mogadishu, because its jetty areas are in the heart of the city, adjacent to the Lido area. It could also There are plans to expand port capacity through house a fisheries authority, a joint monitoring reclamation of the Bay of Bosaso. This area is vital control and surveillance operations room between to the fishing community, because it is the only area fisheries and the navy or coast guard, and hygiene that is protected from the monsoon winds and deep inspection facilities. enough for fishing boats. The fish market on the site and landings facilities there have been redeveloped In addition to designation of at least part of the and a pontoon has been installed for fish landing, Old Port area for fisheries, rehabilitation and which is working well. Although development is improvement to its land access are needed, as its noncontroversial, there are no donor commitments waters have silted up. Coordination and agreement to support the expansion of the port. by various government agencies, donors, and the Turkish firm Al-Bayrak (which holds the concession to Plans have also been floated to develop a second manage the Port of Mogadishu for a 10-year period) port 10 kilometers east of the existing facility, for will also be required to ensure that plans to rehabilitate livestock, fisheries, and the hosting of patrol or the harbor for fisheries purposes complement other naval vessels. Development of this new harbor is plans for its commercial development. key to unlocking the fisheries potential of the entire region. The Bosaso town master plan, supported by A longer-term alternative may be to create a UN-Habitat, includes new roads, a bypass to facilitate bespoke seafood park outside Mogadishu, based development, and use of this new harbor site. on an artificial landing T-jetty that is large enough to allow large tuna purse seiners to discharge. The largest new private sector development in the Similar to plans already sketched out for Bosaso, Puntland fishery subsector, an 800-ton cold store but less ambitious in scope, such a jetty would be and associated processing facilities, has already suitable for exporting livestock as well as mooring been sited east of Bosaso, close to the proposed patrol vessels. With careful planning, it would allow new harbor location. It is recommended that the development of an appropriate business hub the development plans for both the old and new based ashore, clustering seafood companies, cold harbors be refined, with full environmental impact storage, and associated businesses at a new site. assessments and business plans, for presentation to Development of such a jetty would require $10–$14 public and private investors. million of public investment (based on preliminary and unpublished FAO estimates), which would be The Hafun/Hurdiya Peninsula contains the only expected to crowd in private investment of at least undeveloped deepwater harbor in Somalia. this amount. Sheltered from monsoon winds, close to both the best demersal and small pelagic fishing grounds off Bosaso is the key fisheries hub in Puntland and the Somalia, and close to deepwater seamounts that only deepwater port on the Puntland coastline. The attract larger tuna during the southwest monsoon, harbor is a vital source of revenue and Puntland’s it is an ideal export-oriented fish-processing base. only commercial gateway to the outside world. Substantial investment would be required to Current import and livestock export demand means rehabilitate a facility that has not been used since it that the port is working at full capacity, putting great was bombed by the British Royal Air Force in 1941. pressure on the fishing industry, which is currently 164 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Before 1941, the area also had the largest salt pan Jubaland has good potential for coastal fisheries, facility in the world, exporting more than 140,000 including shrimp and spiny lobster (crayfish), for tons of salt annually. There is considerable interest which the now derelict Prodmaa factory was built on the part of international commodity companies in the 1960s. The beach in front of the town has no in reviving the salt facilities. One firm sent an facilities for landing of fish, and the port area was engineering team to the site in 2015. It concluded not designed for fisheries, is farther from town, and that restoring and modernizing the salt pans would is likely to face competition from cargo vessels. Land cost $3 million. In addition, the deepwater jetty is available around Kismayo’s natural harbor, but it needs to be rehabilitated with an 8-meter water has only one deepwater quay, with limited access. depth at extreme low tides. Unexploded munitions in a wreck at the entrance to the harbor require removal if port capacity is to be A facility of this nature would also provide a new expanded. The FAO completed a concept design for livestock export terminal 500 kilometers southeast the construction of a beach landing site. In addition, of Bosaso, providing an instant market for animal it scoped out refurbishment of the site of the feeds made from byproducts of fish processing. In crustacean-processing factory, but the site is subject 2006, plans were drafted for the reconstruction of the to a protracted ownership dispute, endangering jetty; they have not been subject to an environmental plans for its rehabilitation. impact assessment. Constraints in developing the peninsula—in particular the lack of a paved road and Road networks. The main road links throughout the cost and availability of water, which would need Southern Somalia are extremely poor. Most coastal to be piped in from 50 kilometers away on the main settlements in all regions are accessible only by land or obtained from a desalination plant—should dirt road, and large swathes of the coast, including not be understated. But redevelopment of the facility some settlements, have no coastal routes at all. would provide a major boost to employment and Traditionally, maritime links were the main means of export revenue in the region, one of the poorest and transport for most coastal communities, particularly most remote in Somalia. in Puntland and Galmudug. They are insufficient for an expanding artisanal fisheries industry. State Berbera has a containerized deepwater port, administrations have announced plans to create a separated from a much smaller fish landing site. network of tarmac roads to link port ports to urban Rehabilitation of the landing jetty in 2015 greatly centers and potential export markets, such as a improved landings for artisanal fishing vessels, direct route in Galmudug from Hobyo to Galkayo but this jetty is not suitable for industrial or semi- and on to the Ethiopian border, one in Puntland industrial fishing vessels. The FAO completed a from the Hafun Peninsula to Garowe, and another full environmental impact assessment for the in Banaadir/Hirshabelle from Warsheikh and Adale development of an industrial fishing harbor east to Mogadishu. Investments in these road links are of the existing landings quay, which will remain likely to be followed by significant increase in trade, entirely separate from the commercial port. Such particularly in fisheries products. In the case of development would require dredging, creation of Hobyo and Hafun, they will also stimulate moves to a new landings facility, and land reclamation for develop infrastructure for increased maritime cargo. associated industrial processing development, but None of these efforts has been funded, however; all such works would be relatively inexpensive (about $3 remain aspirations. million) and straightforward. Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 165 8. Reform and Investment Options for Agricultural Recovery and Growth Cold chains. A large share of Somalia’s significant more ambitious development of ice and cold-storage postharvest losses is related to the lack of or very facilities, including freezer trucks for exports to poor quality of its cold chains. Small-scale (private) Ethiopia. Previous public interventions have not investments in solar refrigerators, insulated boxes, worked well. 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The captured by the IMF (also based on partner country IMF and the World Bank produced GDP estimates for reporting). For instance, total imports, including nonfood 2012–17, but they are broad expenditures aggregates, nonagricultural imports from Somalia were $2,143 million not estimated based on production sectors or factor in 2014 according to the COMTRADE data but $3,482 income. For this report, the World Bank estimated gross million according to the balance-of-payments statistics production values (volumes times prices) for various in the latest IMF report (IMF 2016). agricultural subsectors for 2000–12, using FAOSTAT 8 Khat is captured under “raw vegetable matter” through production volume estimates of livestock products and 2010 and likely partly misclassified and included under crops multiplied by relevant prices from the patchy “vegetables and fruit” since 2011. price datasets (no estimates were made for the forestry and fishery subsectors). These gross production values 9 These numbers reached 2.4 million people in 2009 and were then translated into rough estimates of sectoral 2011, when a heightened insurgency exacerbated the value added following the methodology adopted in impact of severe droughts in Southern Somalia. estimating the official national accounts for the 1980s 10 See the February 2017 Humanitarian Bulletin by the (and endorsed by Swedish statisticians working in the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Ministry of Planning). Although prewar estimates of (OCHA) (http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/ gross production values were robust, the value added resources/somalia_humanitarian_bulletin_january_2017. of all the livestock subsectors was assumed to be 100 pdf)and the FEWS (http://www.fews.net/east-africa/ percent of their estimated gross production values. The somalia/special-report/february-21-2017) and 2013–16 value added share of the livestock subsector subsequent updates. estimated for this report in figure 1.2 assumes 95 11 The average the river flow down the Juba River at Luuq percent. In the prewar national accounts, the value added (near the Ethiopian border) is 186 cubic meters per of crop subsectors was assumed to be 70–95 percent second. The average flow on the Shabelle River at Belet of the estimated gross production values of specific Weyne (also on the Ethiopian border) is 186 cubic meters commodities, with all major commodities at 90 percent. per second (see annexes A1 and A2 of SWALIM and FAO For this report, to estimate an updated ratio of value 2009). added to GDP by the livestock and crop subsectors, the 90 percent ratio was applied to the entire crop subsector 12 Most shallow wells are less than 20 meters deep. The for 2013–16. For frankincense, 99 percent was assumed water yield from shallow wells varies, depending on the for the 2013–16 estimate in figure 1.2. aquifer. Most yield 2.5–10 cubic meters per hectare. Most boreholes yield 5–20 cubic meters per hectare. Most 3 With no production time series, available for the forestry boreholes are 90–250 meters deep, but some are more and fishery subsectors, it is impossible to trace their than 400 meters deep (SWALIM 2012). historical performance. The sectors’ contribution to GDP is believed to be minimal. 13 To support these interventions, Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) developed a tool for 4 Production volume estimates come from national collecting and managing past and current information on accounts for the 1980s, from FAOSTAT for the early the irrigation infrastructure. Its irrigation management 2010s, and from the database of the Drought Impact information system provides information (both spatial Needs Assessment (Somalia 2018). Prices come from and tabular) on ongoing and planned irrigation projects, the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), providing users data with a platform for learning what is which monitors retail prices of major crop and livestock available, querying the system for specific data sets, and items. When prices were not available from the FSNAU, downloading data in various formats (PDF documents, estimates from government and other sources, including maps, spreadsheets). neighboring countries, were used to approximate gross production values. The sectoral chapters discuss volume 14 These varieties are IR22, the most commonly cultivated and value production estimates at the product level in IR24, and IR27. more detail. 15 Paddy rice yields have oscillated from more than 6 5 Recorded charcoal imports by the rest of the world tons per hectare in good years to a low of 1.5 tons per are assumed to be either properly classified under the hectare in drought years. According to an assessment broader category of “cork and wood” and/or disguised by the Somali Agriculture Technical Group, only about and misclassified under the category “crude animal and 100–150 hectares were under rice cultivation at the peak vegetable materials,” which also include gum and resin of the most recent severe drought (during the Deyr 2016 exports. See section 4.1.1 for the reasons for the likely season), when the Shabelle River dried up (see sections misclassification. 6.1.3 and 6.3.3 in chapter 6). 6 There is a large and unexplained divergence between 16 Al-Shabaab was the youth wing of the Islamic Courts, export totals based on product-by-product and country- which ruled Mogadishu for a short time in the late by-country statistics captured by the UN Common 2000s and morphed into an extremist and terrorist Format for Transient Data Exchange (COMTRADE) on organization after the Islamic Courts disbanded to join Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 173 the FGS. It has been waging an insurgency against all 24 Evapotranspiration refers to the sum of evaporation levels of governments, allowing neither development nor and plant transpiration from the earth’s land and ocean emergency relief activities in the areas under its control, surface to the atmosphere. Evaporation accounts for the and collecting its own taxes from local communities and movement of water to the air from sources such as the businesses. soil, canopy interception, and water bodies. Before the civil war, the Agricultural Development 17 25 In the northeastern regions of Sanaag, Bari, and part of Corporation, a public agency under the Ministry of Nugaal, Acacia ankokib is endemic at lower altitudes; Agriculture, maintained large, modern grain storage silos Acacia manubensis is confined to semi-evergreen in Mogadishu and Baidoa (Bay region). The silos were built bushland on limestone at higher altitudes (see http:// with Italy’s assistance and managed by skilled workers. www.iucnredlist.org/details/34501/0 and http://www. As a result of looting and lack of maintenance, none of iucnredlist.org/details/links/32879/0). In the southcentral them remains functional. regions, Acacia Senegal is endemic. The authors thank 18 Only governments are subject to the general rules of the Shire Musse for providing this information. World Trade Organization. 26 In Puntland, for instance, excessive cutting of trees for 19 USAID supported the partnership between the SATG and charcoal has already caused massive environmental the Ministry of Agriculture as part of its Partnership for degradation of the land, including widespread soil erosion Economic Growth Project. and gully formation. 20 As a result of these efforts, the university produced 27 This misclassification of (illegal) charcoal exports may be graduates in various disciplines relevant to agriculture, behind the surprising and otherwise inexplicable jump in including crops, veterinary science, geology, chemistry, gum and resin exports recorded since 2014 (see figure 4.2 and engineering. Thanks to international scholarships and discussion in the next section). funded by the donor community and managed by the 28 In 2013, the Voice of America reported that “convincing government, some of its graduates were able to pursue Middle Eastern ports to prevent Somalia charcoal postgraduate programs abroad. Most found ready imports has been difficult” and that most charcoal employment in government ministries and agencies, exports originated from Kismayo port, then controlled public enterprises, or the private sector. by Al-Shabab (November 19). Kismayo Port is currently 21 Institutions offering majors in agricultural, veterinary, controlled by the recently formed government of and fishery sciences are Amoud University (Somaliland), Jubaland, under the political umbrella of the FGS. No Buroa Universities (Somaliland), East African University charcoal exports from the port have been recorded since (Puntland), Hiiraan University (Hiiraan), Baidoa University 2014. However, the damage done to the forested areas (Bay Region), City University (Mogadishu), the Berbera surrounding it in the preceding decades is still visible, and Maritime and Fisheries Academy (Somaliland), the its negative consequences are still unfolding. Marine Resources School (Mogadishu), and the Derusalm 29 Before the civil war, a state monopoly controlled the legal Agriculture School (South Central). Initiated as a export of frankincense and myrrh. Most exports went to donor-funded project in 2002, the Intergovernmental China, France, and Germany. In recent years, both Saudi Authority on Development Sheikh Technical Veterinary Arabia and China emerged as important buyers, but School and Reference Centre, located in the Sahil region information is sketchy. in Somaliland, is a regional knowledge institution. It 30 In ancient times, frankincense was sold to the Egyptians, collaborates with the Ugandan Makarere University, who named this part of the north the land of Punt which provides training to professionals in the Horn of (Puntland)—the land of incense. Africa on topics related to animal health, food safety, livestock business development, and dryland and 31 The survey ranks countries across four dimensions ecosystem management. of climate impact: extreme weather, sea level rise, agricultural productivity loss, and overall. Rankings are 22 Before the civil war, the Ministry of Agriculture had six based on a comprehensive dataset described in Wheeler departments: Crop Production, Research and Extension, (2011). Plant Protection, Water and Land Management, Planning, and Administration. They were adequately staffed and 32 HoA-REC&N is an autonomous research institution had the office space and equipment needed to perform that facilitates, strengthens, and advocates initiatives their duties. related to sustainable land use planning, integrated water resources management, ecosystem management, 23 SWALIM is an information management program funded climate change and energy, and value chain development. by the European Union, the United Nations Children’s It comprises more than 40 indigenous civil society Fund (UNICEF), and the Common Humanitarian Fund and organizations, higher learning institutions, and research managed in Somalia by the FAO. It aims to provide high- centers in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South quality information on water and land, which is crucial Sudan, and Sudan. for relief, rehabilitation, and development initiatives in Somalia (http://www.faoswalim.org). FSNAU is a 33 In September 2000, all Gulf countries halted imports of program managed by the FAO that informs development live animals from the Horn of Africa following an outbreak planning to address underlying causes of food and of Rift Valley Fever in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The livelihood insecurity and malnutrition. Information is import ban was lifted in 2002 by every country except collected by a team of professionals all over Somalia. The Saudi Arabia, which kept it in force until 2009. A new ban information is used to assess emergency food security was reimposed by Saudi Arabia in December 2016. needs in different parts of the country (http://fsnau. 34 The U.S. dollar exchange rate of the Somaliland shilling org/what-we-do). FEWS is a global early warning and (SlSh) dropped from SlSh 3,487 in September 2000 analysis system on food insecurity, created by USAID in (when the ban was imposed) to SlSh 6,200 in December 1985 to help decision makers in 35 developing countries 2002. plan for humanitarian crises on the basis of evidence- 35 Funk and Verdin (2009) find that the long rains of 2009 based analysis. Somalia is one of the countries in East were the driest in at least 60 years throughout much of Africa covered by the program (http://www.fews.net/ the Horn region. east-africa/somalia). 174 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 36 Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of wide economies. Regional institutions, such as the the earth’s oceans caused by the uptake of CO2 from Intergovernmental Authority on Development, are key the atmosphere. According to Columbia University’s to harmonizing the national policies of their members. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, the oceans have Its Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability absorbed a quarter of the carbon dioxide humans have Initiative provides a comprehensive regional framework put into the atmosphere over the last 200 years. for resilience-enhancing policy development and 37 The IPCC acknowledges that its models have difficulty investments in the region’s arid and semiarid lands. In capturing regional processes affecting rainfall (Funk, 2013, the Federal Government of Somalia prepared a Eilerts, and Davenport 2010). Country Programming Paper that outlined its vision for the subsector’s development. 38 FSNAU-conducted baseline studies in the Guban pastoral area (in 2014) and eastern Golis Mountain 49 Somaliland’s bushy grassland areas inland provide a good range––a frankincense, goats, and fishing livelihood source of wet-season grazing and are favored for camel zone— (in 2012) confirm that market purchases of staple and goats because of their browsing habits. Its coastal and nonstaple foods are the primary food source for all grasslands are used for livestock grazing, especially in groups, followed by consumption of milk and meat. the dry season, as water is more available in these areas than in the woodlands. In Puntland, the best pastures are 39 According to the FAO (http://www.fao.org/somalia/ found in the high plateaus of the western part of Mudug programmes-and-projects/livestock/en). (straddling Ethiopia), in the Golis Mountain range, and in 40 The FAO estimated that exports accounted for about the low Nugal valley (around Garowe). half the offtake, household consumption for about a 50 During vaccination campaigns spearheaded by the FAO third, and other domestic consumption for about 17 since 2012, (individual animal) average sero-prevalence of percent. Livestock mortality was estimated to be below 62 percent has been observed, with a low of 39 percent 5 percent. A study by the World Bank and UNDP (2007) in the northwestern region and a high of 74 percent confirms these estimates. in southern Somalia, much higher than the 5.5–37.6 The estimated gross production value of milk (the retail 41 percent range found in 2001 baseline surveys. No studies price of which is about $1 per liter) and other products is have yet been conducted to determine mortality and a multiple of livestock production value (see table 1.2 in morbidity rates. chapter 1). The veterinary code for the FGS also covers Puntland. 51 42 Fattening and finishing are usually used interchangeably; 52 Different animals are vaccinated each year, including both describe intensive highly nutritious feeding to young animals (usually less than three months of age) promote fast growth and fat deposition to achieve that were not vaccinated during the previous round. desired carcass quality. The term finished animals refers to animals that have been fattened and are ready for 53 Before September 2009, exports from Somaliland to slaughter. Saudi Arabia transited through the livestock quarantine facilities at the port of Djibouti, increasing marketing 43 Agro-pastoralist areas in Somaliland can be found in costs for Somaliland traders and constraining export the Awdal region (near Borama and Baki), the Woqooyi volumes to the handling capacity of the port (Khadijah Galbeed region (near Gebilley), and the Togdheer region and Kabue 2012). Transshipping from Puntland and (near Burao and Odwyne). Agro-pastoralism is also more recently from Mogadishu through third countries found in several areas of Puntland (near Bosaso and in to circumvent export bans has a similar negative cost the Sanaag and Nugal regions, such as the Eyl district impact. of Nugal and near Shumbiraalay, Cuun, and Jibagaale). Puntland does not have rivers like the southern areas 54 The FSNAU’s most recent point estimates were derived of Somalia have, but it has large and only very partially by taking very disaggregated estimates of the 2014 tapped groundwater (rivers and reservoirs). human population and household sizes from UNFPA and multiplying household size by the average number 44 The livestock populations in these dairy farms vary from of animals per household, as found in various surveys of a few head to as many as 150 head of dairy camel and 15 pastoral households over the past decade. dairy cattle, according to unpublished information from FAO Somalia. 55 Information on herd size and dynamics is scarce. FAO Somalia has documented changes in herd composition 45 When referring to the livestock production model in this in Sool and Sanaag. For middle-class and wealthier chapter, settled farming and stall (confined) feeding households, the number of camels in their herds declined systems—popularly known as zero-grazing in countries drastically between 1989/99 and 2004/05 but was such as Kenya—are not considered unless indicated maintained between 2004/05 to 2009/10. Over the otherwise, because they are not common in Somalia, same period, middle-class and wealthier households though they have started to appear in peri-urban areas. moved away from keeping cattle. 46 Imported species include Leucaena leucocephala, Napier 56 This unpublished paper by Oxfam is cited in Eid (2014), grass, Sudan grass, alfalfa, and Dolichos lablab. who provides a detailed analysis of the cross-border 47 Starting in 2014, the Somali Agriculture Technical Group livestock trade between Ethiopia and Somaliland, (SATG) introduced and tested several forage species in including policy changes instituted by Ethiopia to Afgoi, in the Lower Shabelle region, including Sudan, regulate cross-border trade, and by Lind and others Rhodes, and Napier grasses; alfalfa; and dolichol. All (2016), who analyze pastoralist systems in the dry lands proved highly adapted to the environmental condition of eastern Africa. of Somalia. Unlike other grasses, for which seeds must 57 A first ban was imposed in 1997 and lifted in 1999. Before be imported from neighboring countries, the seeds from it, Saudi Arabia imported about 3–3.5 million animals Napier grass are readily and locally available. from Somalia. A second ban was imposed in 2001 and 48 At the continental level, the African Union proposed lifted in 2009. These bans caused substantial declines in 2010 a policy framework that focuses on securing in prices for pastoralists, although they stimulated and protecting the livelihoods and rights of pastoral a redirection of livestock exports to other countries, communities and reinforcing the contribution of including Djibouti, Yemen, Oman, and the United Arab pastoralism to national, regional, and continent- Emirates. Exports from Bosaso, for instance, rose Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 175 significantly in 2002, the year after the start of the 66 During a normal Gu season, 60–70 percent of the area second Saudi import ban; increased port fees at Djibouti is dedicated to cereal and 30–40 percent to cash crops; port around this time likely contributed to a rerouting during a normal Deyr season, 40–60 percent is planted of traditional exports from Somaliland through Bosaso with maize and 40–60 percent with horticulture. instead of through Berbera. After the lifting of the ban, 67 FAO Somalia is implementing an EU-funded project direct exports from Bosaso to Saudi Arabia replaced “Reviving Spate Irrigation,”‘ to expand the area irrigated the previous indirect exports. In December 2016, Saudi over the next three years. Arabia once again suspended livestock imports from Somalia, after 2,970 head of cattle shipped from 68 Red vertisols are the best soils (SWALIM and FAO 2007e). Somalia tested positive for Rift Valley Fever. Government 69 “In Somalia, the southern part of the Shabelle River has and FAO officials who accompanied the Saudi delegation run dry, the Dawa River is drying faster than normal, and during its field visit to the quarantine facilities in Berbera, the Juba River has reached very low levels. Most water Bosaso and Mogadishu in March 2017 provided strong points in worst-affected areas of the three countries are scientific evidence that there was no Rift Valley Fever in near-dry status. . . irrigated crop production has also virus circulation or outbreak in any part of Somalia. The been impacted as the drought extends over key river false positive test results were solely from a same-day basins” (ReliefWeb, February 17, 2017 [http://reliefweb. shipment to Saudi Arabia of an ill-timed vaccination. int/report/ethiopia/horn-africa-call-action-february- Nonetheless, the Saudi authorities remained concerned 2017-enar]). See also Puntland News24, February about the operational standards of the Somali quarantine 5, 2017 (http://puntlandnews24.com/2017/02/05/ facilities and lifted their import ban only for the three ethiopia-closes-shabelle-river-and-turn-to-parched- months of the Haji season (July– September 2017). playgrounds-for-children/). 58 Cross-border trade, though largely unofficial and 70 The decrease in the Juba River flow would not be as unrecorded, is also believed to have been growing steadily. drastic, because three rivers combine in Ethiopia to form 59 In 2012, the LMIS provided quality-segregated price data the Juba at the border with Somalia. It would nonetheless on about 84 percent of sheep and goats, 56 percent increase resource pressure downstream. of cattle, and 55 percent of camels exported from 71 Indeed, together with Bakool, Puntland is one of the Somaliland. regions worst affected by the drought. In early February 60 The World Bank mission to Somalia in June 2016 2017, various UN agencies issued a joint famine warning, visited a small, home-based, woman-owned business in based on visible signs of crop failures, much increased Garowe. Warshada Caanaha Hanad produces and sells malnutrition, spikes in water and staple food prices, and pasteurized camel milk and yoghurt from goat milk mass animal deaths. out of its small shop. High demand for these products 72 Detailed data disaggregated geographically are available ensures that its limited output is sold out every day. An only for 1995–2016 (FAOSTAT data for earlier years are independent survey commissioned by the World Bank available only nationwide). identified only one other new, modern (albeit still fledging) 73 Estimates for 1998–2009 are not comparable with those dairy business in Mogadishu (OOG Dairy Factory). (For from 2010 onward, because different methods were used an annotated list of agro-processing businesses, see to college the data. Until 2009, data were collected appendix H.) No other individuals or firms in the country using Participatory Rapid Assessment (PRA) techniques. appear to process fresh milk, including in dry powder or Since 2009, data collection has been done using the cheese form. Pictorial Evaluation Tool (PET) approach, a more precise A survey conducted in Somaliland by the FAO in 2011 61 methodology. indicated that shoats constituted 93 percent of the 74 Production estimates by FAOSTAT are much lower (at total livestock slaughtered in the six towns surveyed. The 35,584 tons in 2014 and 28,640 tons in 2015), than situation is likely similar in Puntland. Beef consumption either the FSNAU or the Somali Agriculture Technical is prevalent in the more populous southcentral regions of Group estimates. Somalia. 75 Banana production from farms geared for export was 62 Data in the national accounts (FGS 1989) based on the tightly monitored and thus believed to have been fully purchases of hides and skins by the Somali Leather captured in official statistics gathered by banana Agency, a government marketing monopoly, differ agencies and later by the private company Somalfruit considerably from data from FAOSTAT, which show a and supplied to FAOSTAT. In contrast, most and possibly high of 6,600 tons (estimated equivalent of 8.9 million all of the production by small-scale farmers intended head) in 1980, falling to 3,000 tons (estimated equivalent for domestic consumption was neither monitored nor of 4 million head) by 1988. The drop in the official figures ever estimated by government statisticians, and the in the late 1980s was likely related to the much lower monitoring for statistical purposes of discarded lower- prices offered by the Somali Leather Agency to sellers. quality bananas (scarti in Somali, from the Italian word 63 Poultry feed constitutes almost 70 percent of poultry of the same meaning) at collection centers intended for production costs. exports is believed to have been very inconsistent. 64 This section summarizes the findings of the Livestock 76 Two private companies, FruitSom and Somali Fresh Fruit, Working Group, composed of officials and experts from handled these small test exports to the Middle East (FGS the federal and state governments, the FAO, the World 2014). Bank, and other international development partners 77 In 2015, SATG interviewed 24 banana growers for a study that produced the multisector Drought Impact Needs of the subsector in the Afgoi area (in the Lower Shabelle assessment, released in December 2017. The methodology region). They indicated that once the crop is established, and estimates of damages and losses were discussed and they harvest every three months. Their average yields agreed upon in October 2017 in Mogadishu. were 21.4, 14.3, 15.6, and 22.2 tons per hectare for the 65 The federal and state governments, the FAO, and the Gilaal, Gu, Haga, and Deyr seasons, respectively. The World Bank discussed and agreed on the methodology average annual yield was 73.5 tons per hectare, well for and the physical and monetary estimates of damages above the prewar estimate of 35–45 tons per hectare. and losses in October 2017. 176 Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 78 Although watermelon is eaten as a fruit, it is a member the period after the outbreak of piracy activities off the of the cucumber family and is grown using vegetable coast of Somalia in 2007. Overrestimation is related to production systems. Tomatoes are technically fruits but the methodological limitations inherent in reporting by are eaten and raised as vegetables. Regional Fisheries Management Organizations, including 79 This section summarizes the findings of the Crops the allocation of catches to geographic squares that may Agriculture Working Group, composed of officials and well include catches outside the EEZ boundaries, as some experts from the federal and state governments, the FAO, vessels have been fishing close to but not inside the EEZ, the World Bank, and other international development especially since 2007, and assumptions about species partners for the multisector Drought Impact Needs groupings. Until 2014, Somalia did not have fishing Assessment (FGS 2017a). The methodology and the territorial limits compliant with international law; catches estimates of damages and losses were discussed outside the EEZ cannot necessarily be considered as and agreed upon in October 2017 in Mogadishu. The being in Somali waters or illegal. Financial incentives have crops included are those for which data on production, probably induced underreporting by licensed vessels areas under cultivation, yields, and farmgate prices without observers on board (to minimize license and tax were available or could be estimated (from satellite payments) and by illegal unlicensed vessels. imagery, remote sensing, rapid field surveys, or experts’ 89 This estimate of the fishery production potential of guesstimates) for the drought period and for a predrought Somalia’s waters (the total biomass of marine life that (2013–15) baseline. could be extracted annually) needs to be treated with 80 This estimate includes all fields cultivated in a four-year extreme caution, because the methodology employed period and fallow areas, which represented about half of has many limitations and a large proportion of the the former. estimated biomass is either small pelagic or mesopelagic. Such species are found 200–1,000 meters below the See chapter 2 for historical and current estimates of land 81 ocean surface and do not represent a harvestable under controlled or recession flood irrigation. resource, particularly in Somalia (Rosenberg and others 82 At least 32 medium- to large-scale irrigation schemes 2014). In his background note for the World Bank, and infrastructure were identified and mapped in the Kelleher (2016) cites a much lower sustainable potential, Shabelle and Juba River basins. Some of them are of about 200,000 tons a year; his estimate for small described in chapter 2, others in appendix B (SWALIM pelagic species (scad, sardines, anchovies, and others) is and FAO 2007a). 70,000–100,000 tons a year, subject to high seasonal variability. 83 Field experience by the FAO in Somaliland has shown that a well-managed acre of natural rangeland pasture 90 There is a long history of illegal, unreported, and can easily produce 1.8 tons of fodder—or 20 truckloads unregulated violations by foreign vessels, mainly from fetching up to $350 during lean periods (FAO internal Asia. They include violations by Iranian purse seiners, unpublished assessment). Chinese and Korean longliners, Sri Lankan gillnetters, and various demersal trawlers, including Egyptian and 84 The old 825,052 square kilometer estimate did not (possibly) Yemeni vessels. Foreign licensed and unlicensed include the waters around Socotra Island (administered catches in Somali waters in 2013 were estimated at by Yemen). Persson and others (2015) estimate the 132,000 tons. “Losses” from illegal fishing are estimated size of Somalia’s EEZ encompassing the waters around at $100–$450 million (Kelleher 2016), but such estimates Socotra at 831,000 square kilometers. need to be treated with caution. 85 Since 2014, with assistance from the FAO, ministries 91 The migration routes of tropical tuna pass through the in Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug, and Jubaland Somali EEZ; high-value skipjack, yellowfin, and bigeye have registered about 7,000 fishers and 1,300 vessels are present in the EEZ for at least four months of each and collected detailed information about their fishing year, during the southwest monsoon. There are different patterns, target species, [small] vessel use, and seasons for the mainly Asiatic longline fleet targeting collections by hand, surface diving, and scuba diving. large yellowfin and bigeye tunas. Estimated registration of fishers is 90 percent in urban areas such as Bosaso and 50 percent in remote coastal 92 See the status summary for species of tuna and tuna-like areas, where hand gathering by gleaners is very seasonal species under the IOTC mandate, as well as other species and fishing stations are often uninhabited during the affected by IOTC fisheries, at http://iotc.org/science/ hottest summer months (gleaners, mostly women and status-summary-species-tuna-and-tuna-species- children, walk in shallow water or exposed land to pick up under-iotc-mandate-well-other-species-impacted-iotc. snails, shells, sea cucumbers, urchins, seaweed, and fish 93 The Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources presented in habitats exposed to low tide). The Banaadir and South such information during the 19th Session of the IOTC West regions and other areas dominated by Al-Shabab (http://www.iotc.org/documents/report-presumed-iuu- saw no registrations. fishing-activities-eez-somalia). 86 Incomes are about $7–$15 per fishing day, with fishing 94 The UN Monitoring Group on Somali and Eritrea monitors occurring about 180 days a year (Kelleher 2016). number of licenses and revenue generated (UNSC 2015). 87 No Somali governments have submitted official data 95 The project was undertaken by the FAO with the NGO on domestic inland and marine catches to the FAO CEFA (OSRO/SOM/512/CHA). since 1982; only scattered and partial information is available from FAO Somalia staff or other sources 96 See http://www.un.org/Depts/los/ after that year. Most post-1982 estimates of domestic LEGISLATIONANDTREATIES/STATEFILES/SOM.htm. catches in the FAO global database (such as 200 tons 97 See http://www.icj-cij.org/en/case/161. in inland waters or 29,800 tons in marine waters 98 The law is available at http://mfmr.gov.so/en/wp- by Somali vessels) are just unverified repetitions of content/uploads/2015/11/Official-English-Translation- historical estimates before 1982. of-Ratified-Somali-Fisheries-Law-8.pdf. For a review 88 FAO fishery experts believe that some of these figures, of national and state-level fishery legislation, see TACS in particular for tuna and tuna-like species foreign (2014). catches, may have been overestimated, in particular for Somalia Country Economic Memorandum • Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia 177 99 Even if fisheries management measures exist, they are as an optional extra objective to one where it is a raison not well enforced. Relatively simple measures—such as d’être” (Haddad 2010). Interventions that combine and a minimum size for lobster, the return of egg-bearing enhance synergies between promoting agricultural females to the sea, and replacement of the wasteful use growth and directly improving nutrition are likely to of tangle nets for lobsters with a diver fishery—could produce the most robust poverty reduction results make a significant difference (Kelleher 2016). (Herforth and Harris 2014). 100 Because of insecurity at the time of its design, this 109 The tree’s green leaves are unpalatable to camels and project was not extended to Banaadir (Mogadishu) and goats, who browse its pods, spreading its (invasive) to the South West and Hirshabelle states. seeds. The pods are rich in protein and sugar, and they 101 Fisheries production information from Jubaland and are available during dry periods. Milled Prosopis pods South West is largely anecdotal. added to fodder provide a major protein/nitrogen boost. Despite their intrinsic nutritional value, the pods are 102 Many of these vessels were either owned by or chartered rarely collected and processed as animal feed. The tree’s to Somali businessmen, who manage the collection stems contain a gum similar to gum arabic. Mesquite operations. has been consumed for millennia, in flour, syrup, alcoholic 103 Different sources provide different values for the potential beverages, and even a kind of coffee. The tree can be value of lobster harvests. It is also unclear whether used as lumber for window frames, doors, and light the weight reported is of the whole lobster or only the carpentry, with its bark used to make baskets, fabrics, tail. More than 100 tons of tails were exported through and medicinal products (Awale and Sugule 2006). For a Bosaso airport between 2003 and 2015. Other exporting compendium of the scientific literature on Prosopis, see airports are Garowe and Galkaio (Kelleher 2016). http://www.feedipedia.org/node/554. 104 Gillnets are so effective that their use is closely monitored 110 A pilot project by the FAO in the early 2010s to assist and regulated by fisheries management and enforcement the Federal Ministry of Fisheries in data collection failed. agencies in most countries. Mesh size, twine strength, Future projects need to consider the lessons learned from and net length and depth are all closely regulated to this pilot. reduce bycatch of nontarget species. The weight-of-the-evidence approach combines data 111 105 Kelleher (2016) reports that the Laasqoray tuna cannery from as many sources as possible—fish traders, fishers, has been rehabilitated by the private sector with the scientists, geographic information system (GIS) habitat support of UNDP and that seven cold stores and three maps—to build a stock-by-stock picture of both the fish canneries are in operation in Puntland. current population and landings value and potential values if stocks recover. The process brings together 106 Many Zeyla-based fishers have migrated to Djibouti, the public and private sector actors needed to develop because Zeyla has suffered from sea-level rise, causing longer-term investment plans for fisheries and associated the loss of about two-thirds of the town between 2012 infrastructure. Participation by private sector interests and 2014, with salt water infiltrating the freshwater in this assessment may give them greater confidence aquifer (Kelleher 2016). about committing funds. 107 An example of this short-term, quick-profit outlook is 112 The preliminary cost estimates shown in table 8.4 the rapid growth in the last couple of years of a lucrative are very rough and only indicative, as only Berbera fishery for Gulper shark in the Gulf of Aden. Phase 2 has been subject to an environmental impact 108 Given the magnitude of malnutrition in Somalia, some assessment. Once land ownership issues are resolved, all analysts have gone so far as to recommend that ports will need to draft designs and conduct social and “agriculture should be driven by nutrition goals. . . [moving environmental impact assessments. instead] from the era of thinking of improved nutrition Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia Following more than two decades of civil war, Somalia has made important progress in recent years with the establishment of permanent political, economic and security institutions. This points towards a future with stronger prospects for peace and for economic and social development. Indeed, development and jobs can contribute to improving the security situation and create more incentives for political settlement. Now is a propitious time for both the government and the international development community to assess the medium and long-term development needs of the Somali economy and start planning to address them. Agriculture remains key to the livelihood of half of Somalia’s population that still lives in rural areas. It is also key to the country’s food security and economic growth prospects. Somalia’s landmass encompasses vast tracts of arable land and a variety of agroecological zones conducive to agricultural expansion. There are large areas suitable for livestock grazing, browsing, and fodder production to support the country’s growing markets and export trade; others with fertile alluvial soils for staple cereals, oil seeds, legumes, and horticulture crops. Its forests provide prized gums and resins for both export and local markets. The country’s waters are home to a diverse range of valuable reef and pelagic marine species. Supporting agriculture sector recovery, strengthening its climate resilience, and improving its overall performance will not only boost prospects for sustained economic development, but will also help cement peace and security, alleviate poverty and malnutrition, and enhance health outcomes in both rural and urban areas. This report provides information and analyses that will help inform and guide Somalia’s federal and state governments and their international development partners as focus shifts from short-term recovery and humanitarian response to long-term development and sustained sector growth. @worldbankgroup.org/somalia @fao.org/somalia