98534 Modernizing Weather, Water, and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Prepared in Collaboration between the Royal Government of Bhutan and the World Bank Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Prepared in Collaboration between the Royal Government of Bhutan and the World Bank The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA May 2015 Disclaimer This report is a product of the staff of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@ worldbank.org. Design: Miki Fernández | ULTRA Designs, Inc. Table of Contents Acknowledgements vii Acronyms ix Executive Summary 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 9 Objective 12 Approach and Methodology 12 Process of preparation and consultation 13 Organization of the report 14 CHAPTER 2 RISK CONTEXT AND THE DEMAND FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES 15 River systems and weather 17 Natural disasters and climate-related risks 19 Demand for hydromet information and services 23 Summary 30 CHAPTER 3 MONITORING NETWORK AND FORECASTING 33 Meteorological observation network 35 Station operation and maintenance 38 Surface hydrological network 39 Glacier and GLOF monitoring and early warning systems 41 Product reception through connection to the WMO Information System 42 Remote sensing products 43 Data management, storage, and quality 43 Data transmission and maintenance 44 Analysis and forecast systems 45 Use of IMD and other agency forecasts and products 45 Hydrological forecasts and warnings 47 Forecast skill and verification 48 Summary 48 CHAPTER 4 INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS 51 Institutional history of the DHMS 52 iii Department of Hydromet Services: 2011–present 52 Importance of appropriate policies and regulations 54 Developing a national framework for climate services 54 Organizational structure of the DHMS 56 Regional and national capacities of the DHMS 62 DHMS resources and budget 64 Summary 67 CHAPTER 5 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ROAD MAP 69 Short-term actions (one to two years) 70 Medium-term actions (three to five years) 74 Long-term actions (five years and beyond) 79 Annex 1 STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTED 81 Annex 2 DONOR FUNDED ACTIVITIES 83 Bibliography 86 Boxes Box 1 The Department of Hydromet Services 54 Box 2 WMO recommendations for national meteorological and hydrological services 55 Box 3 Global Framework for Climate Services 56 Figures Figure 1 Average monthly temperature and rainfall for Bhutan, 1960–90 18 Figure 2 Number of deaths and people affected by natural disasters, 1994–2011 20 Figure 3 Cumulative frequency distribution of station elevations compared to Bhutan country elevation distribution 36 Figure 4 Meteogram developed by IMD for Paro, Bhutan, April 11, 2014 46 Figure 5 Example of a Meteogram 46 Figure 6 Ministry of Economic Affairs Organizational Structure 53 Figure 7 Department of Hydromet Services 57 Figure 8 DHMS budget 64 Figure 9 Funding allocations on capital expenditures 64 Figure 10 Capital Budget of the DHMS for FY 2014–15 65 Figure 11 Transforming data into products and services 78 Tables Table 1 Main hydrometeorological hazard events since 2002 19 Table 2 Number of deaths and individuals affected by natural disasters, 1994–2011 20 Table 3 Glaciers, glacial lakes, and lakes identified as potentially dangerous, 2001 22 Table 4 Department of Civil Aviation requirements for hydromet information 24 Table 5 Department of Agriculture requirements for hydromet information 25 Table 6 Department of Hydropower and Power Systems requirements for hydromet information 26 iv Table 7 Ministry of Works and Human Settlement requirements for hydromet information 27 Table 8 Department of Geology and Mines requirements for hydromet information 27 Table 9 Department of Disaster Management requirements for hydromet information 28 Table 10 Road Safety and Transport Authority requirements for hydromet information 28 Table 11 Department of Forests and Parks requirements for hydromet information 28 Table 12 National Environment Commission requirements for hydromet information 29 Table 13 Ministry of Health requirements for hydromet information 29 Table 14 Department of Renewable Energy requirements for hydromet information 30 Table 15 Summary of demand for hydrometeorological services 31 Table 16 Recommended minimum densities of stations 37 Table 17 DHMS observation systems 43 Table 18 Assessment of the DHMS’s ability to provide key hydromet information 49 Table 19 Functions of the PCRD and identified gaps 58 Table 20 Functions of the MD and identified gaps 59 Table 21 Functions of the HD and identified gaps 60 Table 22 Functions of the SGD and identified gaps 61 Table 23 DHMS existing staff capacity 63 Table 24 DHMS existing staff capacity by professional category 63 Table 25 DHMS budget for fiscal years 2012–13, 2013–14, and 2014–15 64 Table 26 Activities by regional resource centers that can benefit the DHMS 65 Table 27 Recommended areas for training 72 Table 28 Distance learning programs 73 Table 29 Human resource and skills gaps 75 Table 30 DHMS observation network enhancement 76 Table 31 Road map and sequencing activities 79 Maps Map 1 Main river basins of Bhutan 18 Map 2 Glacier lakes of Bhutan considered potentially dangerous 22 Map 3 Bhutan DHMS surface meteorological network indicating the locations of AWS, class A, and class C stations 36 Map 4 DHMS surface meteorological network with the stations supported by the government of India 38 Map 5 DHMS surface hydrological stations comprised of primary and secondary stations and primary stations with suspended sediment sampling 39 Map 6 Hydrological stations operated in Bhutan including those supported by the government of India 40 Photos Photo 1 Meteorological Division work area for preparing national forecasts 45 Photo 2 Whiteboard with recorded water levels from surface water stations at DHMS office in Thimphu 48 v Airport, Paro, Bhutan Photo. Photo: © Nyiragongo70 | Dreamstime.com Acknowledgements T his report has been prepared in response to a request from the Department of Public Accounts in the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and from the Department of Hydromet Services (DHMS) in the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MoEA), Royal Government of Bhutan. It is the result of strong and ongoing collaboration between the DHMS and the World Bank, and is based on extensive consultation with numerous government agencies, development partners, and other stakeholders. We are particularly grateful to Dasho Sonam Tshering, Hon’ble Secretary, MoEA; Mr. Choiten Wangchuk, Director General and Ms. Chuni Dorji, Program Officer, MoF; and the team from DHMS led by Mr. Karma Tsering, Director; Mr. Phuntsho Namgyal, Chief of Planning, Coordination and Research Division; Mr. Karma Dupchu, Chief, Hydrology Division; Mr. Singye Dorji, Chief, Meteorology Division; Mr. Chimi Dorji, Chief, Snow and Glacier Monitoring Division; Mr. Sonam Dorji, Data Manager, Meteorology Division; Mr. Buddiman Thapa, Meteorologist, Meteorology Division; and Mr. Tayba Buddha Tamang, Meteorologist, Meteorology Division for their partnership and collaboration. Special thanks also to Mr. Jigme Chogyal and Mr. Sangay Dawa, Program Officers, Department of Disaster Management, Ministry of Home and Cultural Affairs; Mr. Chencho Dukpa, Chief, CORRB; Medon Yaganagi, Deputy Chief Research Officer, CORRB; Mr. Lungten Norbu, Specialist, CORRB, Ministry of Agriculture; Mr. Thinley Namgay, Chief, Climate Change Division, National Environment Commission; Mr. Wangchuk Namgay (Deputy Chief Program Coordinator), Development Cooperation Division; Mr. Rinchen Wangdi (Chief Program Coordinator), Development Cooperation Division, Gross National Happiness Commission; Mr. Kinley Tshering, Chief Horticulture Officer; Mr. G.B. Chettri Specialist, Department of Agriculture; Mr. Jigme Wangchuk, Chief, Department of Livestock; Mr. Namgay Dorji, Information Management Section Head, Department of Livestock; Mr. Tshering Gyeltshen, Officiating Chief, Department of Forest and Park Services; Mr. Kinley Dem, Forest Ranger, Department of Forest and Park Services; Mr. Kuenzang Om (Agriculture Officer, Watershed Management Division, Department of Forest and Park Services; Mr. Dorji Rinchen, Specialist, Department of Agriculture and Marketing Cooperative; Mr. Sonam Yangley, Director General, Department of Geology and Mines; Mr. Dawchu Dukpa, Chief Seismologist, Department of Geology and Mines; Ms. Pelden Zangmo, Chief, Preparedness and Mitigation Division; Mr. Sangay Dawa, Mr. Tshering Wangchuk, and Mr. Chencho Tshering, Program Officers, Department of Disaster Management; Ms. Tashi Wangmo, Chief Urban Planner, Mr. Ugyen M. Tenzin, Chief Urban Planner, and Mr. Sangay Rinzin, Senior GIS Officer—all from the Department of Human Settlement, Ministry of Works and Human Settlement; Mr. Kinley Wangdi, Head, Plans and Program Division and Mr. Phuntsho Gyeltshen, Tourism Officer, Plans and Program Division at the Tourism Council of Bhutan; and Ms. Pratigya Pradhan, Head, Project Department, Druk Green Power Corporation, who gave valuable time for consultations. Our sincere thanks also to Ms. Miharu Furukawa, Project Formulation Adviser, and Mr. Yasuhiko Kato, Chief Adviser, both of JICA; and Mr. Karma Rapten, Assistant Resident Representative, UNDP, for their kind collaboration and coordination. vii The World Bank team was led by Poonam Pillai, Senior Environmental Specialist and Task Team leader, and Dechen Tshering, Disaster Risk Management Specialist and co-Task Team Leader, and included Mark Heggli, Senior Meteorologist, Consultant; Guna Paudyal, Senior Hydrologist, Consultant; Manjusha Rai, DRM Specialist, Consultant; Erika Vargas, Knowledge Management Officer; Tashi Dorji, Assistant; and Marie Florence Elvie, Team Assistant. Peer reviewers for the report included Sofia U. Bettencourt, Lead Operations Officer, GCCDR; Henrike Brecht, Senior Infrastructure Specialist, GSURR; and Winston Dawes, Senior Rural Development Specialist, GFADR, and we sincerely thank them all. Thanks also to Lia Sieghart, Program Leader, SACBN, for her comments on the report, and to Bernice K. Van Bronkhorst, Practice Manager, GSURR, for her encouragement and support. The report is prepared as part of the South Asia Regional Hydromet, Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience Program. Our sincere thanks to Salman Zaheer, Director, Regional Integration, to Sanjay Kathuria, Lead Economist, SACRI, and to Eric Nora, Senior Operations Officer, for their continuous support for the program. Sincere thanks also to Johannes C. M. Zutt, Country Director for Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh and to Genevieve Boyreau, Senior Economist and Resident Representative of Bhutan, for their support for this work. Finally, we are grateful to the South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) and the Water Partnership Program (WPP) for their generous support, without which preparation of this report would not have been possible. viii Acronyms AIT Asian Institute of Technology AMS Aviation Meteorology Section AWLS automatic water level stations AWOS automated weather observing system AWS automatic weather station BMD Bangladesh Meteorology Department COMET Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training CWC Central Water Commission DCA Department of Civil Aviation DDM Department of Disaster Management DES Department of Engineering Services DFPS Department of Forests and Park Services DGM Department of Geology and Mines DHMS Department of Hydromet Services DHPS Department of Hydropower and Power Systems DoA Department of Agriculture DoE Department of Energy DoP Department of Power DoR Department of Roads DRE Department of Renewable Energy EWS early warning system FWS Flood Warning Section (DHMS) GDP gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GFCS Global Framework for Climate Services GFS Global Forecast System GIS geographic information system GLOF glacial lake outburst flood GoI Government of India GSB Geological Survey of Bhutan HD Hydrology Division (DHMS) HYCOS Hindu Kush Himalayan Region Hydrological Cycle Observing System HMSD Hydromet Services Division ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IMD Indian Meteorology Department ix IPR Ice Penetrating Radar IT information technology JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency MD Meteorology Division (DHMS) MoEA Ministry of Economic Affairs MoH Ministry of Health MoHCA Ministry of Home and Cultural Affairs MoWHS Ministry of Works and Human Settlement NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action (INDIA) NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting NEC National Environment Commission NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service NORAD Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation NWFFWC National Weather and Flood Forecastimg and Warning Center O&M operation and maintenance QPF quantitative precipitation forecast PCRD Planning Coordination and Research Division (DHMS) R&D research and development RGoB Royal Government of Bhutan RIMES Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning RSTA Road Safety and Transportation Authority SASCOF South Asian Climate Outlook Forum SGD Snow and Glacier Division (DHMS) TA technical assistance UNDP United Nations Development Programme WIS WMO Information System WMD Watershed Management Division WMO World Meteorological Organization WRF Weather Research and Forecasting Model x Executive Summary M o d e r n i z i n g W e a t h e r , W a t e r a n d C l i m a t e S e r v i c e s : A R o a d M a p f o r B h u t a n Introducción visión integral Gestión del riesgo: Pho Cho River Raphstreng Lake Thorthormi Lake Luggye Lake Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan B hutan is a mountainous country there been an assessment of user needs or how and highly prone to a range of monitoring and forecasting can be strengthened hydrometeorological hazards, including to meet those needs. glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods, riverine floods, landslides, landslide dam The Royal Government of Bhutan (RGoB) has outburst floods, cloudbursts, windstorms, and identified addressing hydrometeorological river erosion. It ranks fourth highest in South hazards and strengthening climate resilience Asia in terms of relative exposure to flood risks, as priority issues. It is in the process of with 1.7 percent of the total population at risk. modernizing its hydromet observation network, With climate change, the frequency and intensity improving weather and flood forecasting of extreme events are expected to increase. Most capacity, and strengthening community-based of the infrastructure, fertile agricultural land, and early warning systems. The Department of over 70 percent of the settlements are located Hydromet Services (DHMS) aims to transform along the main drainage basins and are therefore itself from primarily a “data collection agency” at high risk, especially during the monsoon to a “reliable and credible hydromet service season. In the mid-mountains, landslides provider.” It is within this context and in triggered by cloudbursts are frequent, and recent response to a request from the Ministry of occurrences of landslide dam bursts have caused Finance that this Technical Assistance (TA) major destruction in low-lying areas, including supported by the World Bank was initiated. the Thimphu Valley. Bhutan is also at risk for tropical cyclones. Flash floods are a recurrent phenomenon, with the eastern and southern Study Objective regions being the most vulnerable. The main objective of this TA is to provide recommendations to the RGoB for Key sectors supporting the economy are highly modernizing its hydrometeorological services, dependent on and affected by weather and including capacity strengthening for disaster- climate hazards. Hydropower is a key sector related early warning systems (EWSs). The both in terms of its contribution to the economy DHMS does not have a national hydromet and as a source of foreign currency revenues. services policy but is in the process of preparing This sector is highly exposed to floods and a strategic document to guide its modernization climatic risks. Another major contributor to the and institutional reform process. This TA economy is agriculture. Unpredictability in the contributes to this process and proposes a road timing of monsoons and prolonged drought map for transforming the DHMS into a modern have long-term implications for agricultural service delivery agency. productivity and food security. Farmers relying mainly on rain-fed agriculture are among the most vulnerable. Approach and Process The report starts with an assessment of Improved monitoring and forecasting is key to user needs and how DHMS services can strengthening disaster-related early warning be strengthened to respond to them. The systems (EWSs) and adapting to climate change monitoring and forecasting capacities, and variability over the long run. Despite its institutional setup, and organizational importance, however, at present there is no capacity of the DHMS were studied in depth comprehensive analysis of the existing status of in view of its mandate to deliver the country’s the hydromet observation network, forecasting hydrometeorological services and to work and early warning systems in Bhutan. Nor has with other user sectors. The analysis is based Facing page: Thorthormi Glacier Lake, Bhutan. NASA Earth Observatory image by Robert Simmon. 3 Executive Summary on extensive consultation with various of preparedness and response to disasters. It government agencies, development partners, can help the Department of Civil Aviation and stakeholders. A draft version of this report use hydromet data for flight operations, was presented at a stakeholder workshop held allow the Ministry for Agriculture to develop on August 12, 2014, in Thimphu. Feedback and agrometeorological services and help its comments received have been incorporated in stakeholders to make decisions at the farm this study. level, and support efforts by the Department of Hydropower and Power Systems to develop Strengthening hydrometeorological services hydropower schemes and inform operation and is a challenging task that cuts across multiple maintenance. agencies. The focus here is limited to assessment of the DHMS’s capacity for provision of services. The existing infrastructure and the monitoring It does not focus on broader aspects of disaster and forecasting capacity of the DHMS need risk management such as risk assessment, to be strengthened. At the time of writing, reduction, financing, mitigation, and response- DHMS did not have access to WIS or regular related activities. Follow-up studies are being access to high speed internet. Results from initiated to assess how sector-specific services existing monitoring systems are mainly recorded such as agrometeorological services and end-to- manually. Meteorological measurements are end disaster-related EWSs can be strengthened. underrepresented at the higher elevations, where access is difficult. Upper air observations also need to be strengthened. Glacier and snow Key Findings monitoring by public sector agencies is limited Despite the frequency of natural disasters and needs to be scaled up to assess the long- and the climatic risks facing Bhutan, term impacts of cryosphere changes on water the information basis for assessing such resources and to mitigate GLOF risks. Limited risks is at present weak and needs to be observation systems and forecasting capacity strengthened. Between 1994 and 2011, some impairs the DHMS’s ability to perform routine 87,000 people were affected and over 380 deaths weather services, issue weather and hydrological occurred due to natural disasters in Bhutan— forecasts and warnings for extreme events, and mostly arising from the impacts of floods, monitor long-term climate trends in the country. windstorms, earthquakes, and GLOFs. These There is no forecast verification system in place. have also contributed to extensive damages to At present, Bhutan issues flood warnings but infrastructure and to a disruption in agriculture, has a poor capacity for flood forecasting. With connectivity, and accessibility within and outside development partner support, the DHMS is of the country. At present, however, information upgrading its observation network, moving to on specific types of hazards, exposure, and install real-time stations and telemetry and early vulnerability is limited. warning systems for GLOFs in some river basins. Gaps remain, however. There is a strong demand for hydrometeorological data, information, The DMHS is a relatively new department and and services in a wide range of sectors. requires significant capacity strengthening Hydrometerological modernization and and an adequate budget to support capital climate services have cross-cutting effects investments and operation and maintenance across all sectors and can, for instance, help the that will ensure the long-term sustainability Department of Disaster Management (DDM) of services. Targeted training of existing staff improve early warning systems and the level in a number of critical areas such as weather 4 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan and flood forecasting, remote sensing, and XX Strengthen DHMS information technology database management is needed. The DHMS assets and infrastructure has a very limited budget for capital investments To enable the DHMS to do more with existing and for operation and maintenance. Its budget capacity, a key priority is acquisition and for current expenses and O&M has been installation of the WMO Information System approximately USD 550,000 per year since (WIS). This allows communication with the 2011 and is insufficient to support significant international observing community through the expansion of the monitoring network, World Meteorological Organization (WMO). forecasting, and service delivery. Access to a high-speed Internet connection is also critical and must be dedicated to operations at the DHMS. Regional offices will need Recommendations and Internet connections as well. The development Road Map of information technology assets has a high Modernization of the DHMS and strengthening priority because data and products will be its service delivery mechanism in coordination used by various sectors. This will also require with user agencies is essential. For the strengthening data management so that data department to build its technical capacity and can be retrieved and transformed to build transform itself into a well-resourced service sector-specific products. In addition, numerous delivery agency, much remains to be done. While improvements in infrastructure are required to modernization will inevitably be an iterative, help the DHMS develop improved services. gradual, and long-term process, several actions can be undertaken in the short to medium term XX Focus on high-priority monitoring systems to facilitate it. The DHMS is currently upgrading its meteorological and hydrological ground Short-term actions monitoring network. In the short term, targeted (one to two years) monitoring systems based on user needs that can XX Prepare strategic plan based on user needs provide quick benefits should get priority. For instance, there is a significant need to acquire The DHMS’s strategic plan should be based on instrumentation at Bhutan’s airports to ensure consultation with sector agencies and other aviation safety in challenging meteorological stakeholders. To aid this process, a priority conditions. Low-level windshear alert systems action for the DHMS is to institutionalize a and ceilometers could be purchased within a systematic process of assessing demand from short time frame. key stakeholders and delivering services tailored to these needs. This can be done through XX Improve basic weather and hydrological consultations and user surveys. The plan should forecasting have clear goals, targets, and indicators for the plan period, so that key outcomes can be Another immediate priority area for the DHMS measured. Indicative budget and estimates for is to improve its forecasting and early warning O&M should be spelled out. Service provision in services, both basic weather forecasting and response to user needs can also allow the DHMS hydrological and flood forecasting. This can to explore the potential for generating revenue. be done through investments in hardware and The planning process should be iterative and software, appropriate modeling tools, acquisition ensure that services cater to user needs and have of infrastructure (such as workstations), and adequate staff and O&M budget to ensure that training for DHMS officials. These important they are sustainable over the long run. public services should be improved. Follow-up 5 Executive Summary studies need to be done to design appropriate budget for sustaining this system. It should also networks for efficient monitoring of groundwater gradually build capacity for assessing glacier and water quality. change and the impact on major sectors such as hydropower and agriculture. In parallel, staff XX Pilot end-to-end early warning systems capacity and skill at DHMS’s Snow and Glacier Monitoring and forecasting are but one part of Division should also be strengthened. DGM strengthening end-to-end early warning systems. staff with the needed skills can provide increased The latter includes risk assessments, monitoring support to that division. and forecasting, communication of warnings XX Develop plan for regional collaboration to communities, and communities’ capacity to respond to warnings. These tasks cut across Bhutan has a long-standing history of several agencies and stakeholders including the collaboration with its neighbors, particularly DHMS, the DDM, the Department of Geology India, on weather- and water-related and Mines (DGM), district and local agencies, information. This collaboration can be and communities. It is recommended that in the expanded, particularly given the DHMS’s short term, the DHMS collaborate with DDM to capacity constraints. Climate and weather pilot end-to-end EWS in selected hotspot areas. patterns facing Bhutan are transboundary and These could be scaled up in the medium term. are best monitored, understood, and predicted by taking a regional and global perspective. XX Develop training plan and staff training Moreover, there is a demand for Bhutan- in key areas specific data from regional centers and a demand for regional products and information As DHMS expands and modernizes, staff with that the DHMS can use. Collaboration has relevant expertise will be critical in carrying significant economies of scale for a young out its mandates and providing services. organization such as the DHMS. Areas for A systematic training plan based on needs regional collaboration should be discussed and assessment should be developed to train staff in a plan could be developed through regional important topics such as expanded weather and consultations. Partnership areas could include hydrological forecasting; management of data collaboration can include partnership on and information; activities related to monitoring training, forecasting, EWSs for severe events snow, glacier, and GLOFs; and the provision of such as cyclones, and so on. These consultations services to user sectors. should start in the short term and continue in the medium and long term. XX Develop a long-term program for monitoring Bhutan’s cryosphere XX Strengthen sector-specific Strengthening of snow and glacier monitoring hydrometeorological and climate services and analysis is needed to plan adaptation to Based on an assessment of sector-specific user climatic variability and improve the assessment needs, in the short term, decision support and design of GLOF mitigation related activities. systems and climate services in one to two In the short term, the DHMS can prioritize targeted priority sectors such as agriculture, key glaciers to be monitored, establish the hydropower, and infrastructure should techniques to be used for monitoring, and be developed. This will involve extensive develop an implementation plan for varying engagement with selected agencies, improved time frames. The government should then invest monitoring of data relevant to those sectors, in monitoring in a phased manner through a design and installation of decision support combination of techniques, ensuring a sufficient systems, development of sector-specific 6 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan products, and dissemination to stakeholders and are numerous gaps in the DHMS’s observation communities. network, such as lack of upper air observations and access to weather radar data. These can be procured in the medium to long term. In Medium-term actions enhancing the observation network, attention (three to five years) should be given not just to user needs but also to XX Prepare a policy and legal framework for costs of operating and maintaining systems. DHMS operations Development of a national hydromet legal and XX Establish DHMS regional offices regulatory framework will help the DHMS clarify While there are plans to set up regional offices, its goals and mandate, provide clarity on its roles these have not yet been established. These offices and responsibilities, give it legal authority for its will allow the DHMS office in Thimphu with activities, and facilitate allocation of resources. O&M-related activities in field stations. They will It will also help the department demonstrate also allow for community outreach in helping how it will meet its obligations under interpret weather and flood forecasts, and serve various international agreements and WMO as focal points in collecting data on regional conventions. Policies for data sharing should also weather-related damage. Most important, the be prepared. The policies and legal framework regional centers will manage communication should be consistent with established guidelines between regional stakeholders and the DHMS. and WMO’s proposed recommendations for Regional DHMS offices should be fully equipped national hydrological and meteorological service with adequate infrastructure, computer and operations. communication facilities, electricity, and staff. XX Fill approved staff positions that are vacant XX Strengthen national-level organizational In most DHMS divisions, staff capacity is limited aspects and many of the approved positions are not As a relatively new organization, the DHMS’s filled. Out of 195 approved positions, 148 were should focus on strengthening capacity at in place when this report was prepared. The national and subnational levels. In the short Meteorology Division has 36 staff positions, but term, the focus should be on strengthening only 16 of these were filled. In the medium term, existing capacity and newer divisions such as all approved positions that are still vacant should the Snow and Glacier Division and also on be filled to keep pace with modernization of not combining the weather and hydrological services and be adjusted on an ongoing basis. forecasting offices, although this was suggested in the approved DHMS organization structure. XX Enhance the observation network based Over the long run, further analytical work and on assessments of user needs consultation can be done to assess the best A further strengthening of the DHMS’s institutional fit for the DHMS. observation network will likely be required based on assessment of user needs and priorities. XX Increase the O&M budget to keep pace Requirements for rainfall and water-level with modernization data collection may also be identified in the Over 80 percent of the DHMS’s capital budget process of hydrological forecast development. comes from development partners, including the These systems can be enhanced in the medium government of India. The RGoB budget allocated term, after the ongoing development partner– for current costs for the DHMS are about supported upgrading has been completed. There USD550,000 per year. This is not enough if the 7 Executive Summary DHMS improves its observation systems, glacier Long-term actions (five years monitoring, and service delivery. As the DHMS and beyond) modernizes, the current budget will need to As the DHMS strengthens its capacity and increase substantially to ensure that investments services in a phased manner, it should monitor in information monitoring and forecasting are and evaluate how well it is succeeding on sustainable. meeting its targets and indicators and should adjust its planning and modernization process XX Expand hydrometeorological and climate accordingly. Adequate staff training, budget, and services in additional sectors an iterative planning process based on meeting Based on an assessment of sector-specific user needs and learning by doing will be needed user needs and lessons from short term, to ensure that its services are sustainable over development of climate services can be the long term. Long-term modernization will expanded to an additional one to two targeted involve learning from short- and medium- priority sectors. As before, this would involve term investments and experiences, making extensive engagement with selected agencies, adjustments, and ensuring sustainability as the improved monitoring of data relevant to those DHMS improves and expands its services. n sectors, design and installation of decision support systems, development of sector-specific products, and dissemination to stakeholders and communities. 8 Chapter 1 Introduction View of the city, Thimphu. Photo: nyiragongo/Thinkstock.com 9 M o d e r n i z i n g W e a t h e r , W a t e r a n d C l i m a t e S e r v i c e s : A R o a d M a p f o r B h u t a n Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan B hutan is a mountainous country situated potentially devastating consequences for sectors in the southern slopes of the Himalayan dependent on water resources. In addition to range. It has a rugged topography that rising mean temperatures and glacial retreat, varies from over 7,500 meters in the north to less there is evidence of the formation of glacial than 100 meters in the south. Bhutan’s location, lakes. Of the 2,674 glacial lakes in Bhutan, 24 climate, and topography make it highly prone have been identified as potentially dangerous to a range of hydrometeorological hazards, (Mool et al. 2001). Natural dam formation and including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), dam bursts that could release huge volumes flash floods, riverine floods, landslides, landslide of water pose a major risk to hydropower dam outburst floods, cloudbursts, windstorms, plants, farmlands, and human settlements. The and river erosion. Flooding is a recurrent climate-sensitive agricultural sector provides phenomenon, especially during the monsoon livelihood and employment opportunities to season. Most of the infrastructure (urban areas, approximately 56 percent of Bhutan’s population hydropower plants, roads, airports, etc.), fertile (RGoB 2013f). Unpredictability in the timing agricultural land, and over 70 percent of the of monsoons and prolonged drought could settlements are located along the main drainage adversely affect agricultural production and basins and are therefore at high risk due to has long-term implications for food security. flooding. Increasing variability in rainfall runoff could also contribute to increased downstream flooding. The country experienced GLOF events in 1957, Poor and rural populations are typically the most 1960, 1968, and 1994. The 1994 event was the vulnerable and disproportionately affected by most devastating, causing enormous damage such events. to property and loss of life in the Punakha- Wangdue valley. In the mid-mountains, landslides Addressing hydrometeorological hazards triggered by cloudbursts are frequent, and recent and strengthening climate resilience are key occurrences of landslide dam bursts have resulted priorities for the Royal Government of Bhutan in major destruction in low-lying areas, including (RGoB), and indicators relating to hydromet the Thimphu valley. Bhutan is also at risk for modernization and improved forecasting tropical cyclones. In 2009, Cyclone Aila caused are included in Bhutan’s 11th Five-Year Plan damages of approximately USD17 million due to (RGoB 2013d). As part of its broader agenda destruction of farmland and infrastructure (RGoB to strengthen resilience to disasters and 2013c). Flash floods are a recurrent phenomenon, climate change, the RGoB is in the process of with the eastern and southern regions being modernizing its hydromet observation network, the most vulnerable. In 2012, these resulted improving weather and flood forecasting in extensive damage to infrastructure in Gasa capacity, and strengthening community- Dzongkhag (district) and downstream in Punakha based early warning systems (EWSs). It is and Wangdue Dzongkhags. also interested in strengthening provision of climate services to key economic sectors, such With climate change, the frequency and intensity as agriculture, infrastructure, and hydropower. of extreme events are expected to increase—with To support this process, the Ministry of Finance Facing page: Punakha, Bhutan’s longest suspension bridge over the Pho Chhu river. Photo: nandoart | Thinkstock.com 11 Chapter 1 Introduction requested technical assistance (TA) from the National: Strengthening National Disaster and XX World Bank. The proposed TA responds to this Climate Resilience request. Regional: Regional Cooperation to Strengthen XX Resilience Objective The main objective of this TA is to provide The Bhutan TA is one of the activities under the recommendations to the government, in national pillar that aims to strengthen capacity particular to the Department of Hydromet at the national level as a necessary step toward Services (DHMS) under the Ministry of regional dialogue and cooperation. The findings Economic Affairs (MoEA), on modernizing and recommendations will be shared at the its hydrometeorological services, including subregional level and will contribute to improved disaster-related early warning systems. This is learning and understanding of regional disaster done through an assessment of the country’s preparedness and transboundary climate risks in South Asia. hydromet-related needs and priorities, assessment of its existing observation and forecasting systems, and organizational capacity Approach and methodology assessment for service delivery. As agreed with the DHMS, the TA is being prepared in two phases. Phase 1, which Outputs from the TA are expected to help the is the subject of this report, focuses on DHMS strategize a path for modernization, preparation of a road map for modernization of strengthen its design capacity for improving hydrometeorological services. Phase 2, which has its services, and identify actions needed to put been initiated, focuses on service and demand in place institutional arrangements and the aspects of the use of weather services for disaster capacity to manage weather and climate extremes risk management and agricultural management. appropriately. At present, the DHMS does not have a national hydromet services policy but is in the process of preparing a strategic plan to Phase 1: Modernizing Weather, Water, and guide its modernization and institutional reform Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan process. The 11th Five-Year Plan’s subchapter Analysis of key hydrometeorological risks and on strengthening hydromet services outlines demand for climate services. As a first step, the the medium-term strategy for modernization study takes stock of the main water-related and service improvement. The annual plan of hazards and climate risks in Bhutan. It identifies implementation in concert with the annual key sectoral users of hydromet information and budgeting process serves as the action plan services and assesses their needs and priorities. staggered over the five-year period. This TA The analysis is based on secondary literature and contributes to this process and proposes a road extensive consultations with stakeholders. map of activities that can be taken to move the DHMS from a data-providing organization to a Assessment of monitoring and forecasting capacity. modern service delivery agency. Next, the study assesses Bhutan’s existing meteorological and hydrological monitoring This TA is being prepared as part of the broader network, its capacity for weather and flood South Asia regional program on “Hydromet forecasting, and glacier and GLOF monitoring Modernization, Disaster Risk Management and as key elements of end-to-end early warning Climate Resilience.” This program has two pillars: systems. The report identifies key gaps and areas 12 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan for strengthening Bhutan’s hydromet monitoring farmers’ climate-related information needs. and forecasting system. The analysis will provide the basis for making recommendations on strengthening the capacity Analysis of institutional capacity. The study of the DHMS and the Ministry of Agriculture takes an in-depth analysis of the institutional and Forest for delivering agromet services to and organizational capacity of the DHMS—the farmers, along with farmers’ resilience to weather main agency mandated to manage the country’s and climate extremes. weather services and to work in coordination with other user sectors. Ways to strengthen It needs to be emphasized that disaster risk capacity at the national and subnational levels are management and climate services are much proposed. broader than just improvements in monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems. They Recommendations and road map. Based on the include key activities such as risk identification, above analysis, the study proposes a road map for risk reduction, risk financing, and post-disaster modernization. reconstruction and response—all of which are outside the scope of this paper. The focus here, though limited, sheds light on a small but Phase 2: Strengthening Disaster-Related important aspect of disaster preparedness and Early Warning Systems and Climate climate service delivery. Other aspects will be Services discussed as a follow-up to this study. While Phase 1 focuses on understanding user needs and strengthening the supply side of hydromet services, Phase 2 (carried out as Process of preparation and follow-up to this report), focuses on demand- consultations side aspects. The main counterpart agency in Bhutan for this TA is the DHMS. The TA is being prepared Assessment of early warning systems at the river in close consultation with the department and basin level. A detailed analysis of the current with numerous other agencies, including the status and gaps in end-to-end warning systems Department of Geology and Mines (under for multihazard disaster risks is being undertaken the MoEA), the Department of Disaster with focus on the Manas river basin. This Management (under the MoHCA), the Gross includes capacity for multihazard risk analysis, National Happiness Commission, the Ministry assessment of laws/regulations, assessment of of Agriculture and Forests, and the National basin-level institutions to respond to disasters Environment Commission (see Annex 1 for a list and climate risks (including community-level of stakeholders). During preparation of Phase response mechanisms and preparedness), and 1, extensive consultations were undertaken with recommendations for strengthening end-to-end development partners, particularly the Japan EWS for managing disaster risks. International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the United Nations Development Programme Modernizing agrometeorological services. As part (UNDP), with the aim of donor coordination of Phase 2, a detailed assessment of how agromet and partnership (see Annex 2 for an inventory services can be strengthened in Bhutan is also of relevant donor-funded activities at the time of being initiated. An understanding of farmers’ preparation of this report). A draft version of this information needs is critical to strengthening report was presented at a stakeholder workshop agromet services. As such, the TA will help on August 12, 2014, in Thimphu. Feedback and design and develop a survey tool for assessing comments received have been incorporated in 13 Chapter 1 Introduction this study. Upon completion of both phases, Chapter 3 provides an assessment of the XX a follow-up workshop will be organized to existing hydrometeorological observation disseminate findings of the full TA. network and forecasting in Bhutan and areas of strengthening. Organization of the report Chapter 4 focuses on an institutional and XX Following this Introduction: organizational analysis related to delivery of hydrometeorological services. Chapter 2 assesses the demand for hydromet XX and climate services from key sectoral users Chapter 5 proposes a road map for XX and summarizes their requirements for data, modernization and capacity building. n products, and services. 14 Chapter 2 Risk Context and the Demand for Hydrometeorological and Climate Services Sacred mountain of the goddess, or Mount Jholmolhari - the most sacred mountain of Bhutan. Photo: © Bloopiers | Dreamstime.com 15 M o d e r n i z i n g W e a t h e r , W a t e r a n d C l i m a t e S e r v i c e s : A R o a d M a p f o r B h u t a n 16 Photo: netopaek | Thinkstock.com Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan U nderstanding the key natural hazards To the west of the Punatshang Chhu is the facing Bhutan and the demand for Wang Chhu river, also called the Raidak. It is hydrometeorological and climate drained by different tributaries coming from services is an important starting point for the surrounding mountains, with the main planning and designing how the country’s tributaries being the Thim Chhu, Paro Chhu, observation network and forecasting system and Haa Chhu. The Amo Chu basin (also known should be upgraded and what services should be as the Torsa River) originates in Tibet, crosses provided. The focus of this chapter is to address Bhutan, and flows into the Brahmaputra river this issue. It starts with a brief overview of some about 130 kilometers downstream from the of the key natural hazards and climate risks Indo-Bhutan Border. All four of these river facing Bhutan. It then provides an assessment systems are fed mainly through permanent and of the demand for hydromet services based on seasonal snows, glacier melt, and monsoon consultations with various user agencies and precipitation. stakeholders. Lakes above 3,000 meters elevation constitute the high-altitude wetlands of Bhutan and are an River systems and weather integral part of the river systems.1 As discussed in Situated in the southern slopes of the eastern a study done by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF Himalayas, Bhutan is landlocked, mountainous, 2011), they contribute to water storage and the and drained by the watershed of the mighty hydrological cycle in the mountain ecosystem, Brahmaputra river basin. Its total area is regulate microclimates, and provide life support approximately 38,394 square kilometers, of to farmers and pastoralists in downstream which about 16,610 square kilometers is 3,000 areas. They also provide crucial water resources meters above sea level. From east to the west, the for ongoing and planned hydropower projects main river systems are the Manas, Punatshang commissioned by the government. Based Chhu/Sunkosh, Wang Chhu/Raidak, and the on a recent inventory using remote sensing Amo Chhu/Torsa basins (see Map 1). These techniques, there are 3,027 high altitude lakes transboundary river systems run north to south in Bhutan, mostly in northern and central parts and into the Indian plains. In a small area to of the country (WWF 2011). These include the north of Bhutan, rivers run south to north suprasnow lakes, supraglacial lakes, glacial lakes, toward China. lakes in alpine meadows, and marshes. Most suprasnow lakes are found in the Mangde Chhu The Manas river basin is a tributary of the watershed, and most supraglacial lakes are found Brahmaputra River and has a total length of in the Punatshang Chhu basin. approximately 376 kilometers, of which about two-thirds is in Bhutan. The basin is formed Bhutan is characterized by considerable by four principal rivers: the Drangme Chhu, variability of precipitation both spatially Mangde Chhu, Kuri Chhu, and Chamkhar Chhu. and temporally. In general, there is more Topographically, the basin is divided into two precipitation in the southern belt of Bhutan, with distinct terrains: the mostly mountainous north highest recorded rainfall in Samtse, Gelephu, and small alluvial plains to the south, bordering Phuentsholing, and Samdrupjongkhar, all in India. southern Bhutan. The altitude range of 100–2,000 meters receives about 2,000 mm of total annual The Punatshang Chhu, in the center of Bhutan, rainfall, the area between 2,000 and 4,000 meters is the second largest river basin and has two main tributaries: the Mo Chhu and Pho Chhu. See also: http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/haw_ 1 report_1.pdf 17 Chapter 2 Risk context and the Demand for Hydrometeorological and Climate Services Map 1 Main river basins of Bhutan Source: Bajracharya, Maharjan, and Shrestha 2014. receives about 1,000 mm total annual rainfall, and a temperature of 18 degrees Celsius during and the northern region above 4,000 meters this period. This monsoon period is usually receives about 400 mm of precipitation annually associated with severe weather events that in the form of snow. result in floods, flash floods, and landslides. The months of November to March are typically As Figure 1 shows, the temperature and characterized by little rainfall, which can precipitation reach their maximum between generate droughts and fires—with devastating June and mid-September, with an average of impact on agriculture, forests, and rural around 400 mm of precipitation per month communities. Figure 1 Average monthly temperature and rainfall for Bhutan, 1960-90 800 20°C 600 15°C Rainfall (mm) Temperature 400 10°C 200 5°C 0 0°C Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: World Bank, Climate Change Knowledge portal. 18 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Natural disasters and climate- repercussions from these events can be high, related risks particularly for poor and marginal communities. Documentation of natural hazard events in Bhutan is one of the most disaster-prone Bhutan is undertaken by the Department of countries in the South Asia region. The Disaster Management (DDM)—but not very country is exposed to multiple hazards—most systematically or comprehensively due to prominently floods, landslides, windstorms, capacity issues, and it can be strengthened. Based forest fires, and glacial lake outburst floods. The on available information, Table 1 provides a country is also located in the seismic zone V summary of the main hydromet and weather- of high earthquake occurrence. It ranks fourth related hazard events since 2002. highest in the South Asia region in terms of relative exposure to flood risks, at 1.7 percent of qualitative. Table 1 indicates damages from forest fires, the total population at risk.2 The socioeconomic droughts, windstorms, flash floods, and landslides, though there are known instances of riverine flooding that are not documented. Weather-related Comprehensive documentation of weather-related 2 damages from some events are documented, though hazards in Bhutan is not available. Surveys on those unaccounted for in other events. The case of Cyclone affected by adverse weather-related events such Aila in 2009 seems to be an exception, in which as floods and wind damage have been generally damage costs were estimated by the government. Table 1 Main hydrometeorological hazard events since 2002 Climate Year hazard event Reported damages Affected areas 2002 Forest fire 25 houses destroyed by fire leaving 26 families homeless Haa Dzongkhag 9 lives; damage to 162 houses, 664 acres of farmland, and 39 irrigation channels; loss of 350 million tons of maize, 126 million tons of paddies, and 2,000 citrus trees Six eastern Dzongkhags 2004 Flash floods (Districts) Transportation remained disrupted for days in the affected Dzongkhags 2005 Forest fire 5 houses destroyed by fire Trashiyangtse Dzongkhag 2005 Forest Fire 7 shops destroyed by fire Bumthang Dzongkhag 2005–06 Drought Damages unknown Not available 2 deaths; 5 houses and thousands of acres of forests 2006 Forest fire Trashigang Dzongkhag destroyed by fire Damages to 249 households, 8 school buildings, religious 2008 Windstorm Trashigang Dzongkhag structures, and 1 government office Damages to more than 80 acres of maize crops affecting 2008 Windstorm Mongar Dzongkhag 96 households 2009 Windstorm Damages to 114 households Trashigang Dzongkhag 12 deaths; damages to farmland, infrastructure, etc., 2009 Cyclone Aila Across the country amounting to USD17 million Damages to 2,000 acres of farmland and irrigation channels Flash floods 2010 affecting nearly 4,800 households; 40 acres of pastureland 20 (all) Dzongkhags and landslides and 1,000 livestock destroyed Damages to more than 5,000 acres of farmland affecting 2010 Windstorm Across the country 432 households Damages to 2,424 houses, 81 religious structures, 57 schools, 2011 Windstorm 16 Dzongkhags 21 health centers, and 13 government buildings Industrial estates and Flash floods 2011 Loss of property for 200 households residential areas in and landslides Phuentsholing and Pasakha 2012 Windstorm Damages to 143 houses, 1 religious structure, and 1 school 4 Dzongkhags 19 Chapter 2 Risk context and the Demand for Hydrometeorological and Climate Services As shown in Table 2 and Figure 2 (including only record levels—higher even than levels recorded the most extreme hazards), floods with more during the 1994 GLOF event. than 222 casualties account for 84 percent of total deaths related to natural disasters in Bhutan, In addition to damages to rural livelihood even though they affected only 2 percent of the assets, floods and landslides often sever key road total population. Storms affect about 75 percent networks of the country. There are immense of the population but have historically resulted economic impacts on the Bhutanese society in about eight times fewer casualties. Floods and when roads are disrupted by floods or landslides cyclones /storms account for about 95 percent because of limited or no alternative detour of total deaths related to natural disasters; the options in the mountainous terrain. Expanding remaining 5 percent resulting from earthquakes.3 the national road network and safeguarding it from disruption is considered one of the highest Changes in monsoon rain patterns (especially priorities in the 11th Five-Year Plan because intensified rainfall in short intervals), coupled the network provides essential market linkages with the geologically young and unstable between the rural and urban sectors. Landslide Himalayan terrain, have triggered a number of management is important not only to reduce flash floods and landslides in the past decades. human and material losses but also to sustain Southern and eastern Bhutan, characterized by the national economy and maintain connectivity deeply eroded, steep, and closely spaced gullies, between the different districts of Bhutan. are particularly vulnerable to these disasters. Combinations of flash flood and landslide Slopes are highly susceptible to landslides, events in 2003, 2004, 2009, and 2010 claimed particularly in the eastern and southern foothills a number of human lives, houses, livelihood belt. Landslides often create landslide dams. assets, infrastructure, and scarce farmlands. In Steep, narrow, and rugged mountains require particular, the excessive rain brought by Cyclone only a small volume of materials to block a gully, Aila in May 2009 caused the worst floods across resulting in natural dams. In 2003, a landslide the country in 40 years. During this time, the event along the Tsatichhu River created a natural water flow of the Punatsang Chhu River reached dam 140 meters deep. This dam is located upstream of the Kurichu Hydro Power Plant. Epidemic outbreaks are not recorded as natural 3 If it breaches, the resulting flood will inflict disasters, even though they are closely linked to significant damages to the power plant, an weather conditions. Table 2 Number of deaths and individuals Figure 2 Number of deaths and people affected by natural disasters, 1994-2011 affected by natural disasters, 1994-2011 100   Deaths Affected 84 80 75 Flood 222 1,600 Percent 60 Storm 29 65,000 40 Earthquake 12 20,028 23 20 11 Total 304 87,369 2 5 0 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Flood Storm Earthquake database. n Deaths n Affected Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster database. 20 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan important revenue earner for the country. 1994, there was a major GLOF event in the If it breaches, the resulting flood will inflict Luggye Tsho glacial lake. At that time, there significant damages to the power plant, an was little public awareness of the potential important revenue earner for the country. dangers from GLOFs. However, since the event, which caused extensive damage along Erratic monsoonal activities are also the Punakha-Wangdue valley, there has increasingly causing extreme windstorms been increasing awareness of the potential during the spring and multiplying the risk of risks from glacier retreat and of GLOFs forest fires during the drier winter seasons. (National Report on Bhutan for World Windstorms in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 Conference on Disaster Reduction 2005). caused severe damage to infrastructure and Using satellite imagery, the International agricultural production. During a medium- Centre for Integrated Mountain sized windstorm in December 2013, Development (ICIMOD) has carried out reportedly some 40–50 households were decadal inventories of glaciers and glacier affected in Paro and Haa. Between 1999 and lakes in the Himalayas, including in the 2008, some 526 incidents of forest fire were Bhutan Himalayas. The 2001 inventory recorded, affecting over 70,000 hectares of identified 677 glaciers (with a total area forest areas (approximately 1.8 percent of the of approximately 1,317 sq. km.) and 2,674 country) and causing devastating damage glacial lakes, of which 24 were classified as to residential and farm areas. Projected potentially dangerous (see Table 3 and Map reductions in winter rains in many districts 2) (Mool et al. 2001). A repeat inventory in under a changing climate, especially in 2010 identified 885 glaciers with a total area the next two to three decades, are likely to of 642 (+/- 16.1) sq. km. (Ives, Shreshtha, compound the risk of forest fires. The slow and Mool 2010; Bajracharya, Maharjan, and onset of disasters such as droughts and Shrestha 2014). The 2010 inventory shows local extreme rainfall are less likely to make that since the 1980s there has been a general news headlines and are therefore less well trend of increase in the number of glaciers recorded, but the impacts are often equally and decrease in glacier area. Accelerated detrimental to marginal farmers, who have melting of glaciers, which act as natural limited means to mitigate the impacts. water retention and dispensing mechanisms, For example, the average cereal crop yield can disrupt the hydrological regime of peaked in 2004 at 1,256.3 kilograms per acre perennial river systems and have a profound and has declined by about 20–30 percent in effect on water availability and productivity subsequent years. With increasing incidence of water-dependent sectors such as of extreme events, hard-won development agriculture and hydropower. Changes in the gains can be easily reversed. cryosphere, thawing of snow from higher temperatures, and variability of precipitation The risk of glacial lake outburst floods is can further trigger glacier outburst floods a major concern in Bhutan. In October (Rupper et al. 2012). 21 Chapter 2 Risk context and the Demand for Hydrometeorological and Climate Services Table 3 Glaciers, glacial lakes, and lakes identified as potentially dangerous, 2001 Glaciers Glacial lakes Potentially Number Area (sq. km) Ice reserves Number Area (sq. km) dangerous Amo Chu 0 0 0.00 71 1.83 0 Wang Chu 36 49 3.55 221 6.47 0 Puna Tsang Chu 272 503 43.27 980 35.08 13 Manas Chu 310 377 28.77 1383 55.51 11 Nyere Ama Chu 0 0 0.00 9 .07 0 Northern Basins 59 388 51.72 10 7.81 0 Total 677 1317 127.31 2674 106.77 24 Source: Mool et al. 2001. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Bhutanese society, especially in rural areas where Change Fifth Assessment Report highlights, farmers mainly rely on rain-fed agriculture. The increases in temperature and precipitation are rural poor are the most vulnerable as they are likely to exacerbate the frequency and intensity least equipped to adapt to slow-onset changes of extreme events in South Asia (IPCC 2014). related to climate variability. In Bhutan, this could lead to an increase in the incidence of flooding, landslides, and GLOFs, Many of the key economic sectors in Bhutan potentially causing severe economic damage are highly dependent on weather and climate and adversely affecting lives and livelihoods. hazards. Three sectors account for 45.33 percent Changes in the timing and duration of monsoons of Bhutan’s gross domestic product (GDP): could amplify the socioeconomic challenges for agriculture, livestock, and forestry (16.99 percent); Map 2 Glacier lakes of Bhutan considered potentially dangerous Potentially dangerous glacial lakes Basin boundary River International boundary Source: ICIMOD (2001) 22 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan electricity and water supply (12.37 percent); and Demand for hydromet construction (15.97 percent) (RGoB 2013b). For information and services instance, hydropower is a key sector in terms of The Department of Hydromet Services can both its contribution to the GDP and as a major provide a range of information to sector agencies source of foreign exchange generator, with most and users, including data, products delivered by of the electricity exported to India. Of the total the international community (such as monsoon electricity consumed in Bhutan, 98.9 percent forecasts, climate predictions), derived products comes from hydropower. The hydroelectric (such as road weather forecasts, fire weather sector is highly exposed to floods and climatic outlooks, or any special weather statements risks, which could potentially have huge negative issued and entirely developed by the DHMS), repercussions on this sector and the GDP. and services such as feasibility studies and technical assistance. To better understand the Another major contributor to the GDP is demand and needs of user agencies for hydromet the agriculture sector. According to the most data and services, extensive consultations were recent National Labor Force Survey, agriculture undertaken during the preparation of this study. The rest of this chapter summarizes the main provides employment to about 56 percent of information needs and priorities of key sectors the labor force (RGoB 2013f). It is primarily and underscores the urgency for modernizing subsistence farming, and the sector constitutes hydromet services in Bhutan. the majority of income, employment, and food security for most Bhutanese, particularly the poorest. Agriculture is also highly weather Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) and climate vulnerable through changes in The DCA is part of the Ministry of Information temperature, climate variability, and changes and Communications. Formed in 1986, it is related to the timing and intensity of monsoons. responsible for regulating aviation safety, airport Development of agrometeorological services regulation, and providing air navigation services. for different agroecological zones for farmers Its main office is at the Paro International to help plan and adjust their farming practices Airport—the only international airport in the to changing weather patterns can significantly country. DCA also supports flight activities facilitate adaptation efforts in the agricultural at regional airports in Bumthang (under sector. Detailed quantitative estimates of the operation), Yonphula (under up- gradation), economic costs of natural disasters and climate and Gelephu (construction completed but yet to risks for Bhutan’s GDP and the potential benefits commence operation). Within the DCA is the from modernization of hydromet and climate Aviation Meteorology Section (AMS), which is services are so far not available and should be part of the Air Navigation Section. Pilots rely on AMS observations for safe landings and prepared.4 departures. AMS is responsible for collecting For a qualitative assessment, see “Strengthening 4 meteorological information at the airport, such Hydro-Meteorological Services for Bhutan,” as wind speed and direction. It also passes on undertaken with support from the Finnish surface observations to the pilots of arriving Meteorological Institute. One of the study’s main objectives is to provide a qualitative overview of and departing aircraft. AMS has established two improved hydrometeorological services and feedback automatic weather observing systems (AWOS), on end-user needs and to provide a financial estimate which are generally equipped with the following of benefits obtained for the Bhutanese economy as a sensors: barometric pressure, temperature result of strengthening hydromet services. The study does not provide quantitative estimates of the impact and relative humidity, visibility, cloud height, of natural disasters to Bhutan’s gross domestic product. and precipitation accumulation. However, the 23 Chapter 2 Risk context and the Demand for Hydrometeorological and Climate Services AWOS stations in service at Paro International entire crop. The forecasting and detection of Airport lack cloud height and visibility sensors. these events, development of weather bulletins, Air navigation is largely left to the pilots, who and targeted agro advisory services can help operate under visual flight rules.5 Despite the DoA inform extension workers and farmers meteorological observations collected at Paro and support decision making at the farm International Airport, pilots do not have critical level. Changing weather patterns and climate information regarding turbulence, which can variability are expected to cause changes make landings and takeoffs difficult, if not highly in the growing season. This will need to be dangerous. recorded and tracked so that DoA can develop information packages and inform farmers Discussions with DCA officials highlighted about changes in crop planting, fertilizing, and significant demand for improved hydromet harvesting times and can promote increased data and products. Several technologies can resilience. help detect air turbulence and ensure safe flight Table 4 Department of Civil Aviation conditions. These include a ceilometer, which can requirements for hydromet information detect cloud base above the airport and provide pilots with information to determine visibility Data Parameters during aircraft approach and departure. Another Temperature is a windshear turbulence warning system, Relative humidity which provides alerts for terrain and convective- Data directly Wind speed induced wind shear. This system can provide collected by DHMS Wind direction real-time wind shear and turbulence alerts to Wind shear pilots and air traffic controller staff and up to Ceilometer 12-hour forecasts of terminal area turbulence to Products aviation meteorologists. There is also significant Wind shear advisory demand for weather forecasts that affect flight Satellite pictures operations (see Table 4). Processed data or information Short-range forecast collected from Medium-range forecast different sources Severe weather warning Department of Agriculture (DoA) Wind and wind shear forecast Weather, water, and climate play a prominent role in agricultural production. From planting Officials at DoA expressed high demand for through irrigating to crop harvesting, farmers agromet data and climate services that can and pastoralists need weather information help farmers from different agro climatic zones to optimize crop production. Moreover, make decisions related to planting, watering, pest infestations and crop diseases are often pest and disease treatment, and harvesting (see associated with changes in weather. Flash floods, Table 5). The current network is sparse and hailstorms, and extreme weather events cause unable to capture the numerous agro climate considerable damage to crops, and during zones. DoA requires a denser meteorological harvest season this can result in the loss of an monitoring network to monitor the country’s microclimates and has therefore directly This refers to a set of regulations under which the pilot 5 funded the rehabilitation of numerous climate operates an aircraft in weather conditions generally stations. There is also strong demand for clear enough to allow the pilot to see where the aircraft medium and longer-term forecasts that would is going. The pilot must be able to operate the aircraft with visual reference to the ground and by visually allow the agriculture community to plan crop avoiding obstructions and other aircraft. treatments to prevent losses from pests and 24 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan disease. Development of agromet services would daily observations of rainfall and climate were involve collaboration between and capacity not recorded on some weekends or when the strengthening of both the Agromet Section observer is not available. Also, data quality is under the Meteorology Division at the DHMS often not reliable, which directly affects the and relevant departments within the Ministry of quality of the design studies and the operation of Agriculture. hydropower generation schemes. Table 5 Department of Agriculture Consultations highlighted the need for accurate requirements for hydromet information hydrometeorological data, particularly rainfall, Data Parameters river discharge, and climate data, to help develop Data directly collected Climate data the design of hydropower schemes. They by DHMS Synoptic data expressed need for data from hydromet stations spread more consistently through the country, Products particularly at higher elevations.6 A higher Weather forecast density of stations would be desirable and would Flood and drought forecasts lead to a better estimate of basin runoff, which Processed data and advisory Flash flood forecast is ultimately used in the design and efficacy of a given hydropower generation scheme. DHPS Climate forecast expressed interest in numerous hydromet Frost advisory products and special analysis of data on an Agro-advisory bulletins with information specific as-needed basis (see Table 6). It also expressed to different crops in willingness to pay the DHMS for the timely different agro-ecological delivery of these products and special analysis. zones Examples of required analysis include probable maximum precipitation, probable maximum flood, depth duration frequency, and depth Department of Hydropower and Power duration curve. DHPS is interested in the DHMS Systems (DHPS) developing more thorough quality assurance/ As mentioned, hydropower is a key economic quality control, which will yield more highly sector in Bhutan. Currently, the existing valued data. hydropower schemes are mainly run-of-the-river and do not have the capacity to store or manage water much beyond generation scheduling. Ministry of Works and Human Settlement However, future hydropower projects in Bhutan (MoWHS) are expected to have the ability to store and The MoWHS is another major user of DHMS manage water. This will be useful in managing data, and several departments within the flood flows, but it will also create a need for real- ministry expressed the need for DHMS services. time hydromet data so that reservoir operations The Department of Engineering Services (DES) can be performed in a thoughtful manner. This has an interest in water supply and sanitation will result in an increased dependence on real- and flood management. The DHMS hydrological time hydromet data. records would be of great value to DES. DES The DHPS relies heavily on the stations operated As discussed in Chapter 3, hydromet stations, 6 by the DHMS because it does not operate any especially rainfall stations, are often placed in the lower-lying valley, with few stations located in the of its own hydromet stations. However, data higher rainfall accumulation zones in the higher are often found to be incomplete. For instance, mountains. 25 Chapter 2 Risk context and the Demand for Hydrometeorological and Climate Services Table 6 Department of Hydropower and bridge heights (see Table 7). Water level data Power Systems requirements for hydromet are important for bridge construction, so information bridge designs can accommodate historically Data Parameters high water levels. DoR also expressed demand Rainfall for accurate medium-range forecasts for the maintenance and the construction of bridges. Temperature Data directly These forecasts should include rainfall, quantity Suspended sediment collected by of rainfall, runoff, and the temperature and DHMS Wind speed relative humidity. The rainfall forecasts and Wind direction intensity forecasts could also greatly aid DoR in Data developing a broader understanding of the risk Products of landslides. These forecasts should be narrow Quantitative precipitation enough in scope to provide rain quantity and forecast rain rates by region. Processed data Runoff forecast and advisory Temperature forecast The Department of Human Settlement, also Flood forecast under the same ministry, is mandated to identify Wind forecast potential growth centers and carry out detailed Services topographic surveys of specific areas and regions Site-specific Probable maximum precipitation for the preparation of settlement development services (PMP) plans, so it would also greatly benefit from data requiring further Probable maximum flood (PMF) calculation on rainfall, GLOF and other high-risk areas, and and analysis by Other information for feasibility flash floods. This would help the department DHMS studies carry out flood analysis and feasibility studies related to settlement planning. Other must consider the effects of hydrology and parameters such as temperature, wind speed, meteorology within the Flood Management and direction would also help the department Division and the Water Supply and Sanitation to plan sustainable energy-efficient settlements, Division. Systematic rainfall and surface water contributing to the green growth of the country. data can contribute to improved design and management of Bhutan’s developing road system. Department of Geology and Mines (DGM) The Department of Roads (DoR), also under The DGM under the Ministry of Economic Affairs the MoWHS, is involved in construction of was established in April 1981. Prior to this, most roads and bridges, the management of which of the geologic mapping was undertaken by the will benefit from better quality hydromet data. Geological Survey of India, which, by mutual DoR has developed a Road Information Center, agreement, ceased involvement in Bhutan in 2002. where road closures are reported to the public. The DGM has four divisions: Geological Survey of Real-time hydromet information would be used Bhutan (GSB), Glaciology, Seismology, and Mining. to enhance the DoR road information portal by The GSB and the Glaciology Division are significant considering weather conditions that would affect users of hydromet data. The GSB is responsible road conditions. for monitoring geohazards induced by climate change, such as landslides. The Glaciology Division DoR expressed the need for high-quality is tasked with monitoring glacial lakes and remedial historical rainfall and runoff data to design measures for GLOF risk reduction, mainly from road features such as culvert capacity and the geological and geomorphology perspective. 26 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 7 Ministry of Works and Human very short distances. This would be very useful in Settlement requirements for hydromet designing structural mitigation measures. information Data Parameters DGM would benefit from a real-time automatic Rainfall network operated by the DHMS as platforms to Water level mount seismic sensors. In this way, the network Data collected Discharge infrastructure can be shared, reducing the directly by overall implementation costs if each network DHMS Temperature were implemented separately. There are also Wind speed opportunities for services related to climate Wind direction reports and special analysis of rainfall data to Products better determine the rainfall characteristics at Quantitative precipitation various landslide areas. forecast Winter storm forecast Table 8 Department of Geology and Mines Processed data Travel advisory and advisory requirements for hydromet information Travel warning Data Parameters Temperature forecast Data directly Wind forecast collected and Services Rainfall, intensity, and duration analyzed by Depth Duration Frequency DHMS Site-specific Probable maximum flood Services services requiring further Probable maximum precipitation Site-specific Depth duration frequency, calculation services depth duration curves Other hydrological and hydraulic requiring further and analysis by Data required for design of calculation and Other studies of rainfall over a DHMS bridges and highways analysis smaller area Much of DGM’s work is structural, which requires knowledge of climate change and the rate of change Department of Disaster Management so that structural mitigation measures can be As discussed earlier, Bhutan is highly vulnerable effectively and efficiently designed.7 to various hydrometeorological hazards. The DDM’s main mandate is disaster preparedness Discussions with DGM indicate a high demand and post-disaster response. Consultations with for accurate rainfall data, such as rainfall totals, DDM showed that it will benefit immensely intensity, and duration (see Table 8). To acquire from a broad range of meteorological data, this type of data, rainfall measurements will need information, and products (see Table 9). Of to become automated and set to collect data at very prime importance are accurate forecasts of short intervals (every five minutes, or based on the disasters, including heavy rain, flash floods, event). DGM expressed interest in a subnetwork of landslides, and cyclones, with sufficient lead stations adjacent to landslide areas because rainfall time. These forecasts are key elements of end- and intensity of rainfall can vary greatly over to-end early warning systems, which at present The Department of Geology and Mines also receives 7 are very weak in Bhutan. With donor support, funds through the National Adaptation Programme early warning systems for GLOF have been set of Action 2 project. These funds are designated for up in some river basins. DDM is a key user of the formulation of a historical landslide database and structural mitigation in landslide zones to prevent the GLOF early warning system operated by future landslides. the DHMS. Once a GLOF event is detected, 27 Chapter 2 Risk context and the Demand for Hydrometeorological and Climate Services DDM is notified to help prepare and respond to Department of Forests and Park Services the disaster. Accurate extended-range weather (DFPS) forecasts that provide improved lead time would The Watershed Management Division (WMD) also be highly valuable and help communities within DFPS has the primary responsibility prepare for hazards and climate risks. for managing Bhutan’s watersheds. WMD is a Table 9 Department of Disaster consumer of stream discharge, stream sediment, Management requirements for hydromet and climate data. Wind direction and other information climate variables are used in categorizing Data Products & Services watersheds. WMD is in need of high temporal Wind advisory resolution rainfall data of 15 minutes and shorter (see Table 11). These data would be helpful in Flood advisory understanding the impact of high-intensity Flood forecast rainfall on Bhutan’s watersheds. There are Processed data Flash flood forecast and advisory currently no records of short-term high-intensity Fire weather outlook requiring rainfall to the extent required by WMD. Thus, analysis by Red flag forecast the link between rainfall events and the damage DHMS GLOF Early Warning done to the watershed is largely unquantified and Cyclone forecasts unknown. This is expected to become more of a Forecasts for thunderstorms and problem with climate change. severe weather Table 11 Department of Forests and Parks Road Safety and Transport Authority (RSTA) requirements for hydromet information RSTA provides all motor vehicle related regulatory Data Parameters and documentation services, such as vehicle Data directly Rainfall registration, driver licensing, road worthiness collected by DHMS Climate testing, vehicle emissions, passenger transport Products service regulation, traffic regulations, and road Products and safety. It uses general weather forecasts to help advisory requiring Climate forecasts manage transport. Severe weather, rainfall, and analysis by DHMS snowfall affect road conditions. Currently, RSTA Services receives its information from radio broadcasts and Site-specific would benefit from improved data and services information requiring Depth Duration Frequency from the DHMS (see Table 10). processing and analysis and curves analysis of data by Table 10 Road Safety and Transport DHMS Authority requirements for hydromet information Data Parameters National Environment Commission (NEC) Temperature Data directly The NEC is a policy and advisory agency Rainfall collected by DHMS that regulates activities associated with the Road weather environment. It is a multisectoral body providing Products policy decision support to the government, Snow advisory Products and and it coordinates policy implementation advisory requiring Storm warning relating to the protection, conservation, and analysis by DHMS Weather forecasts improvement of the environment. It is also the 28 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan national coordinating body for monitoring Table 13 Ministry of Health requirements implementation of the National Adaptation for hydromet information Programme of Action (NAPA). Given its role Data Parameters on environment and climate change, NEC relies Temperature heavily on DHMS data and analysis for making Relative humidity policies relating to climate change adaption Wind speed and mitigation relevant for Bhutan. Like other Wind direction stakeholders, the NEC expressed a strong need Data directly Rainfall for “value added” products in addition to data collected by DHMS Solar radiation (see Table 12). Air quality Table 12 National Environment Commission Water quality requirements for hydromet information Water discharge Data Parameters Products Temperature Products and Climate summaries advisory requiring Relative humidity processing and Seasonal weather forecasts Wind speed analysis by DHMS Wind direction Data directly Rainfall Department of Renewable Energy (DRE) collected by DHMS Solar radiation The DRE was established in 2011 with the Air quality mandate to serve as the central coordination Water quality agency and focal point related to renewable Water discharge energy development. The vision of DRE is to Products provide diverse forms of green and renewable Products and Climate summary by station energy solutions and energy-efficient options advisory requiring Climate summary by region aimed at enhancing energy security and processing and analysis by DHMS sustainable development. The Solar Energy Section, Wind Energy Section, and Small Services Hydro Development Section require high- Sector-specific Climate analysis by sector services requiring quality hydromet data to carry out designs on analysis by DHMS developing sustainable power generation. The DHMS could have a great deal of work through Ministry of Health (MoH) DRE in the planning of alternative energy production systems. Required data include high- One of main priorities for the MoH, which is quality climate data and products and services tasked with delivery of health services, is water related to the processing of climate data (see quality data, particularly in smaller streams Table 14). for drinking water supply. The Public Health Engineering Division expressed the need for climate data and seasonal forecasting to help properly analyze the needs and requirements for safe and cost-effective drinking water systems (see Table 13). Weather-related data analysis of climate trends is also needed to monitor and track the incidence of various vector-borne diseases. 29 Chapter 2 Risk context and the Demand for Hydrometeorological and Climate Services Table 14 Department of Renewable Energy that are very general, and it only gives an idea requirements for hydromet information of the range of temperature and whether it Data Parameters is rainy or not during the respective season. Temperature Without proper data on weather forecast, Relative humidity tour operators face challenges in planning Data directly Wind speed activities, especially trekking and camping. collected by DHMS If weather forecast including rain forecast is Wind direction made available, this would greatly benefit the Solar radiation tourism industry in day-to-day operations. It Products would help plan touristic activities that would Products and Climate summaries advisory requiring directly have a huge impact on the experience processing and Wind rose of the visitors. Having good data on hydromet analysis by DHMS would also benefit the aviation sector, and this indirectly has a major impact on tourism since one of the main factors facilitating tourism is Tourism Council of Bhutan accessibility. The information needed by the The Tourism Council of Bhutan is mandated Tourism Council mainly includes weather- with tourism planning and policy, including related information such as temperature, formulating and implementing a national relative humidity, snowfall, and rainfall, along tourism policy and strategy in consultation with forecasts and warnings about different with relevant stakeholders. It is responsible hazardous and extreme events such as floods for regulation and monitoring—including and landslides. developing and implementing relevant guidelines, developing regulatory measures on the sustainable use of natural and cultural Summary resources, and ensuring compliance—and for This chapter confirms that there are a wide range coordination to establish a safe environment for of users of hydromet information and services visitors, facilitate mobilization of resources and in Bhutan and that there is a strong demand private sector investment, and promote tourism for hydromet data and services (see Table 15). as an important national priority. Understanding the needs and priorities of key user sectors and designing services in response Currently, the tourism industry provides to them will be critical to any modernization of weather information based on historical data DHMS services. n 30 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 15 Summary of demand for hydrometeorological services Product or Service of Interest to Particular Sector Watershed management Disaster management Construction industry Flood mitigation Environment Hydropower Agriculture Transport Tourism Health DHMS Product/Service Improvement of weather forecasting capacity 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Improvement of flood forecasting, including flash flood early 3 3 3 3 3 warning systems Development of Early Warning Systems for prevention of 3 3 3 3 3 3 landslides Monitoring and forecasting of 3 3 3 3 3 forest fires Quality hydromet data and basic 3 3 3 3 3 3 products available to stakeholders Seasonal and monthly climate 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 predictions Remote sensing products for monitoring and forecasting 3 3 3 3 3 hazards More hydromet data in areas of 3 3 3 3 3 high altitude and small rivers Mapping of flood and landslide 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 prone areas Weather and climate products 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 tailored for specific stakeholders Water quality monitoring and 3 3 3 3 standards 31 Chapter 3 Monitoring Network and Forecasting Photo: © Flowminator | Dreamstime.com 33 M o d e r n i z i n g W e a t h e r , W a t e r a n d C l i m a t e S e r v i c e s : A R o a d M a p f o r B h u t a n Himalayas mountains. Photo: s_jakkarin | Thinkstock.com Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan M odernization of Bhutan’s collected data out of the country. The AWSs hydrometeorological observation collect and relay data automatically, without an network, forecasting, and early observer. warning systems is currently in its initial stages. As a relatively new department, the Department Like Class A stations, Class C stations are of Hydro-Meteorological Services is beginning manned stations with observations recorded to acquire the infrastructure that is required of either on a chart or read nominally once every demand-responsive national hydromet agencies. day at the same time (usually in the morning). This chapter assesses Bhutan’s existing hydromet These stations are considered climate stations, network and forecasting capacity. The objective and observations are generally relayed back to is to understand the baseline network, identify the headquarters by post. These data are not gaps, and help chart the course and sequence used for near real-time synoptic analysis, nor for the DHMS’s network modernization. are they sent to the international meteorological community for model assimilation. Rather, they are simply collected to document the climate Meteorological observation and are available for assessing climate trends. network Data collected include minimum and maximum Surface meteorological stations are an extremely temperatures over the past 24 hours and important part of any national hydrological daily rainfall. These data are used by various and meteorological service. Data from these stakeholders for planning purposes. At present, stations are assimilated in numerical models however, the DHMS does not have the capacity and used to validate forecasts. At present, the to undertake detailed climate analysis. DHMS operates 92 weather stations consisting of 20 Class A stations, 11 automatic weather The Department of Civil Aviation operates two stations (AWSs), and 61 Class C weather automatic weather observing system stations stations (see Map 3).8 The weather stations at two locations near the runway at Paro generally measure temperature, precipitation, International Airport. These data are shared with relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction the international aviation and meteorological (or wind run), solar radiation, and atmospheric community through an aviation meteorology pressure. Class A stations are manually communication system. These stations measure operated, in which the observer makes two weather conditions at the airport and are used by readings per day and reports these readings commercial pilots to help with decision making to the headquarters daily (by telephone) and related to flight navigation. AWOS data are used monthly (with reports). These stations are similarly to Class A stations and are usually also called “synoptic stations” and are used to included in synoptic analysis and provided to the build meteorological products such as weather international community through WIS. charts. This form of data is usually shared through the World Meteorological Organization There are no “purely” agromet measurement (WMO) Information System (WIS). It is used stations, though the synoptic (Class A) and by meteorologists around the world to prepare climate (Class C) stations can be used to forecasts and is assimilated into numerical support the agricultural community. There are models to produce weather prediction products. no fire weather stations. Bhutan also lacks upper However, because the DHMS is not connected air (radiosonde) measurements and weather to the WIS, it is not transmitting nationally radars. The 11 automatic stations are located with the Class A 8 manned stations. 35 Chapter 3 Monitoring Network and Forecasting Map 3 Bhutan DHMS surface meteorological network indicating the locations of AWS, class A, and class C stations Source: DHMS 2014. The representativeness of the surface An assessment of the representativeness of meteorological observation network in the meteorological stations with respect to monitoring the numerous climates in Bhutan elevation zones has been analyzed to determine is an important and challenging issue. Each which elevation zones may be over- or climate zone should be monitored so that any underrepresented (see Figure 3). changes or variation in climate can be recorded. Figure 3 Cumulative frequency distribution of station elevations compared to Bhutan country elevation distribution 120 100 Cummulative percentage 80 60 40 20 0 0-599 600-1199 1200-1799 1800-2399 2400-2999 3000-3599 3600-4099 4200-4799 4800-5399 5400-5499 CE 4% 14% 27% 41% 55% 70% 81% 91% 99% 100% SE 13% 128% 57% 75% 92% 98% 99% 99% 100% 100% Source: World Bank team Note: CE = country elevation; SE = station elevation 36 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan The two curves in Figure 3 represent cumulative This translates to 154 precipitation stations (AWS frequencies of both meteorological (Class are not included in the total because they are A, AWS, and Class C) elevations and the found at some Class A sites). Map 3 indicates distribution. The blue curve is the cumulative gaps in the meteorological monitoring network frequency of the elevation area of Bhutan. in the northern part of the country and along For instance, the graph shows that 55 percent the southern edge of the network. While density of the land mass is at or below 2,999 meters. of surface meteorological stations needs to be However, 92 percent of the stations are located strengthened, a more detailed follow up study at or below 2,999 meters, and only 8 percent of is needed to determine network density more the stations are at elevations equal to or higher accurately. than 3,000 meters. Thus the higher elevations are underrepresented compared with the lower The government of India (GoI) and the Royal elevations. Government of Bhutan are cooperating in the operation of some hydromet stations and sharing In addition, the gaps in Bhutan’s precipitation of data. GoI provides funds to RGoB for the network are generally located in the northern operation of hydromet stations of interest that part of the country, which is remote, difficult lie within Bhutan. All hydromet stations within to access, and at very high elevations. This is Bhutan are owned and operated by the DHMS, of little surprise because of the difficulty in as the agreement only relates to the sharing of locating, installing, and maintaining stations at the operation and maintenance expenses of the Bhutan’s high elevations, although they represent stations and the delivery of data to the Central a significant area of the country. To address this, Water Commission (CWC) in India. CWC uses stations can be added to the zones above 3,000 the data to determine the quantity and timing of meters. This will result in a station elevation transboundary river discharge, which in turn is distribution that more closely represents the used in developing river forecasts in the part of country elevation zones. India that is downstream of Bhutan. Map 4 shows DHMS meteorological stations (also shown in The WMO (2008a) has established a set Map 3) that are covered under the agreement of guidelines with regard to the density of between GoI (through CWC) and RGoB hydrological monitoring stations (see Table 16). (through DHMS). The DHMS hydromet stations A mostly mountainous country, with an area of used to support CWC have different sensor 38,394 square kilometers, Bhutan should have packages, but they mainly focus on the collection precipitation gauges every 250 square kilometers. of water level, precipitation, and temperature. Table 16 Recommended minimum densities of stations Precipitation Physiographic Non- unit recording Recording Evaporation Streamflow Sediments Water quality Coastal 900 9,000 50,000 2,750 18,300 55,000 Mountains 250 2,500 50,000 1,000 6,700 20,000 Interior plains 575 5,750 5,000 1,875 12,500 37,500 Hilly/ 575 5,750 50,000 1,875 12,5000 47,500 undulating Small islands 25 250 50,000 300 2,000 6,000 Urban areas – 10-20 – – – – Polar/arid 10,000 100,000 100,000 20,000 200,000 200,000 Source: WMO 2008. 37 Chapter 3 Monitoring Network and Forecasting Map 4 DHMS surface meteorological network with the stations supported by the government of India Source: DHMS 2014. The DHMS is in the process of receiving support namely, the DHMS budget. The main constraints under the UNDP-funded NAPA II project to to the maintenance and repair of existing further strengthen its surface meteorological automated stations are the limited budget and observation network. Given this, the density of insufficient government pool vehicles and budget meteorological monitoring stations will likely be to hire vehicles, hindering the mobility of staff adequate. for maintenance. The DHMS does not have enough government pool vehicles to cater to every station to carry out regular maintenance. Station operation and Establishing regional offices would be very maintenance helpful to facilitate this task. While critical, station density is not the sole measure of the effectiveness of the networks. At present, the surface meteorological The few stations that have been automated, observation network is largely manual. Field along with the stations that were installed as staff make measurements and transfer the part of the GLOF network, do not have proper information to headquarters through telephone arrangements for maintenance and repair. or by post. Data are collected twice a day So although there are likely to be sufficient for Class A stations and once a day for Class numbers of stations, several existing stations are C stations. It is necessary to automate data not in working order. This is mainly attributed collection and transfer to headquarters to the to budget constraints that limit the mobility extent possible if the DHMS is going to provide of DHMS staff. The budget for operation and necessary and accurate forecasts. The automation maintenance (O&M) are from the government— of data collection and transmission will allow 38 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Map 5 DHMS surface hydrological stations consisting of primary and secondary stations and primary stations with suspended sediment sampling Source: DHMS Note: W/Sediment refers to stations that have sediment sampling data to be used in real time while also allowing by the DHMS. For the secondary hydrological the notification of exceptional meteorological stations, site staff also carry out daily discharge events (such as heavy precipitation caused measurements using the traditional float method by cloud burst, or damaging wind events) besides water level. automatically. This is especially important for early warning related to rainfall events that lead The Indian government, through the CWC, also to high water or crop damage. Automation of provides funding to the DHMS for the collection data will also help improve the frequency and of hydrological data. The location of these quality of data collected and in turn contribute to stations and DHMS stations is indicated in Map 6. more accurate forecasts. The DHMS monitors river basins throughout Bhutan. Based on a qualitative analysis, it is Surface hydrological network apparent that flood warning stations are located The DHMS operates 26 surface water stations mainly along big rivers, and the network is (see Map 5). Sixteen of these stations are water sparse in smaller rivers. Several tributaries have level and discharge (primary) stations, and the no monitoring, especially at the international remaining 10 are secondary stations where water border with Tibet in northeastern Bhutan. level measurements are observed from staff Additionally, the reservoirs should have water gauges. Sediment samples are collected from 9 of level and discharge measurements on the major the 16 primary water level and discharge stations. tributaries. Suspended sediment sampling should There are no groundwater monitoring stations be added to these sites. Another shortcoming or water quality stations currently operated of the existing hydrological networks is 39 Chapter 3 Monitoring Network and Forecasting Map 6 Hydrological stations operated in Bhutan including those supported by the government of India Source: DHMS 2014. that only a fraction of the stations include supply. This would include a more detailed discharge measurements (staff gauge only). The analysis of available stream gauge records and development of a river forecast model system hydrographs. At the time of writing this report, will require the hydrological stations to provide there are several concurrent donor-funded discharge, as discharge is a primary input to river projects with the DHMS that are expected to forecast models. add to the number of stream gauges, though many of these will still be without discharge The actual design of a river gauging network measurement. The data have not been evaluated, depends more on purpose-driven aspects than spatial aspects alone. Knowledge of major but they should be in a follow-up consultancy.9 reservoirs, for example, is used in establishing The spatial representativeness of the hydrological 9 stream gauging stations. The presence of monitoring network cannot be properly evaluated downstream communities and the lead time without engaging in a more thorough analysis of the hydrological data and the socioeconomic losses caused required to warn these communities of floods, from flooding. It is recommended that the network the location of critical infrastructure (such density of the hydrological monitoring network be as roads, hydropower), land use information part of a follow-up consultancy that will also develop and calibrate hydrological modeling for DHMS. As (presence of agriculture, human settlements), part of such a consultancy, an analysis of the benefit and so on are all significant factors in the design of flood forecasting would need to be performed for of a flood forecasting network. A thorough a network design based on needs rather than typical analysis of stream gauge records will need to network density and locations. During the course of model development, even more station locations can be undertaken to properly design the stream be identified such that the performance of the flood gauging network for flood forecasting and water forecast model is fully optimized. 40 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Glacier and GLOF monitoring idea of snowmelt contribution to downstream and early warning systems or to the accumulation. An AWS near Thana has measured relative humidity and air temperature The Department of Geology and Mines has been on an hourly basis since 2013. monitoring glaciers and glacial lakes in northern Bhutan. In 1996, it prepared an inventory of The SGD is also engaging in several research and glaciers and glacial lakes in major river basins collaborative activities. At the time of writing this using maps produced by the Survey of India report, these included the following. based on air photographs of 1956 and 1958 and satellite images (Ives, Shreshtha, and Mool 2010). The division started manual snow XX At the regional level, the International Centre observations in 2013 winter at Semtokha for Integrated Mountain Development has been (Thimphu), Namgayling (Haa), DSC (Paro), monitoring decadal shifts in glaciers in the Gasa, and Chamkhar (Bumthang), along with Bhutan Himalayas based on satellite data. the existing Class A meteorological stations by meteorological observers. Manual snow At the DHMS, the Snow and Glacier Division (SGD) is the newest and smallest division; it was depth measurements using rulers are made formed at the beginning of 2013. The division is every time there is a snowfall or at 7AM after responsible for studying snow and glaciers of the a snowfall event. Snow water equivalent are country through field measurement systems and also determined using the melting method. remote sensing techniques. It is expected that The same measurements are also done at its data, services, and analysis will help others the high-altitude passes on the national understand the complete hydrological system highways at Hongtsho (Thimphu), Pelela of Bhutan and ascertain climate change impacts (Wangduephodrang), Yotongla (Trongsa), and related to the Bhutan Himalayas. Some of the Thrumshingla (Bumthang) through part-time proposed activities by SGD include a Glacier observers. Mass Balance System of measuring the glaciers With XX the Norwegian Water Resources & and their retreat rates, snow surveys and snow Energy Directorate, the ongoing Phase-IV pack measurements to find out snow variations of the Norwegian Agency for Development across regions and their time period, and the Cooperation (NORAD) Project, a site has installation for permanent monitoring of snow been chosen at Thanagang glacier upstream and glacier stations. of Chamkhar Chhu to support the DHMS for sustainable data provision to accelerated Within the DHMS, the capacity for glacier hydropower development and other uses. monitoring is just being established. One glacier The in-situ measurements of the glacier using in the Chamkhar Chhu basin is being monitored ablation stakes are done annually starting by the DHMS through glacier mass balance. from 2012 and will be continued in the future Another technique used is ice-penetrating radar, for glacier mass balance. Air temperature which finds the volume of ice after knowing the and relative humidity measurements are also area and depth. It allows annual monitoring done here through an automatic station. of the volume of ice retreat or gain and helps Snow measurements such as snow pits and identify debris-covered glaciers. A pilot project transects are also planned to be set up in has been conducted at Thana glacier upstream the area. Further, the Bavarian Academy of of Chamkhar Chhu. A third technique used is Science and Humanities and SGD conducted snow pit measurement, which measures snow a glacier thickness measurement using Ice density, depth, and snow-water equivalent and Penetrating Radar (IPR) in the beginning of identifies the snow grain sizes. It gives a rough April 2104. The Academy and the DHMS aim 41 Chapter 3 Monitoring Network and Forecasting to test the IPR and understand the glacier rapidly rising water levels from the six stations. morphology of Bhutan in order to propose a The GLOF early warning system does not require countrywide ice thickness study in the near meteorological or hydrological forecasts because future. it is a self-contained observation system intended Another ongoing research project, by Brigham XX to operate without staff intervention. With Young University and Columbia University, support from Japan International Cooperation intends to quantify the glacier contribution Agency, GLOF early warning systems are also to water resources (present and future), assess being planned in the Mangde Chhu and the impact of glacier melt and retreat on GLOF Chamkhar Chhu river basins (JICA 2013). potential, and assess paleo-climate. The project is working on Tachenggay glacier near As evident from this description, while there Metatshota Lake, close to Rinchen Zoe la in are numerous activities to monitor snow the upstream of Mangde Chu, and includes and glaciers in Bhutan and there is strong mass balance research. The assessment collaboration with regional institutions such as is planned to be done annually and also ICIMOD, comprehensive monitoring of snow expanded into the Lunana glacier complex. and glaciers is not currently being done by the government, and there is very limited capacity The SGD is planning to set up several XX within government for cryosphere monitoring. automatic snow stations that will provide Going forward, it will be crucial to systematically them with snowfall data such as snow depth identify the priority glaciers in the Bhutan that and other weather parameters. An Automatic should be monitored and to prepare a design Snow Station at Chelela Pass, 4000m above sea and long-term plan for improving monitoring level, was being installed in June 2014. SGD and capacity building of government agencies. plans to install at least three such stations in Given that there are similar capacity gaps in 2014–15 in the high altitudes of Wangchu and neighboring countries as well, this could be done Manas basins. in a collaborative way as part of a subregional or A cryosphere monitoring program in Bhutan XX regional program. is being planned by the DHMS and ICIMOD from July 2014 for five years under Norwegian government funding. The goal of the project Product reception through is to understand the cryosphere of Bhutan connection to the WMO for better decision making. The project has Information System four components: remote sensing analysis to The WIS is a communication network that determine 15 hotspot glaciers, a field study of relays national meteorological data into the a glacier, capacity building, and setting up a meteorological center of the WMO and back out cryosphere knowledge center for Bhutan. to all national meteorological institutions. WIS products that directly measure the environment The DHMS operates a GLOF early warning in and around Bhutan are numerous and consist system in the Punakha-Wangdue Valley. It of several satellite systems. Bhutan is not yet was funded by the Least Developed Countries connected to the WIS, though it is understood Fund, RGoB, UNDP, the Austrian Development that connection to WIS is being facilitated Agency, and the World Wildlife Fund of Bhutan with support from JICA. The reception of under the National Adaptation Programme of these valuable data and products can greatly Action project. The EWS consists of six stations enhance the ability of the DHMS to monitor that report water level, and a system of 17 siren meteorological and hydrological conditions stations used to warn communities based on in Bhutan at very little cost, without the cost 42 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 17 DHMS observation systems Observation system DHMS DCA Surface meteorology stations (Class A) 20 0 Surface meteorology stations (Class C) 61 0 Automatic weather stations 11 0 Automatic weather observing systems 0 2 Principal hydrological stations 16 0 Secondary hydrological stations 10 0 Flood warning stations 28 0 Sediment sampling stations 11 0 Automatic GLOF water level stations 10 0 Automatic GLOF weather stations 3 (+ 1 is being added) 0 Agromet stations 0 0 Fire weather stations 0 0 Groundwater stations 0 0 Water quality stations (suspended sediment only) 11 0 Glacial monitoring stations 2 0 Snowpack monitoring stations 1(+3 to be added) 0 Upper air (radiosonde) 1 (in planning stage) 0 Doppler weather radar 0 0 WIS product reception In Planning Stage 0 Remote sensing products 0 0 of operating and maintaining the observation climatic observations go as far back as 1985. systems such as environmental satellites. Also, somewhat discontinuous rainfall data from a few locations are available dating back to 1950s. There was no quality check for data collected Remote sensing products before 2010. A few basic tools for quality check The remote sensing products used by the are used for data since 2010. DHMS are limited to what is available from other national hydrological and meteorological The DHMS stores a modest amount of services or from National Meteorological Service information compared with typical national websites and those that are in the global public hydrological and meteorological service centers, domain. For instance, the Indian Meteorology because it collects very few data. The raw data Department (IMD) provides satellite imagery manually collected from meteorological stations of Bhutan from the Kalpana satellite. Table 17 are first entered into a database called HYDATA10 summarizes the observation assets in operation in the head office at Thimphu, and then the by the DHMS, including the DCA, in Bhutan. same data are updated in Excel spreadsheets to ensure quality check. The data are later archived Data management, storage, in Excel format and also saved in hard copy. The and quality HYDATA is proprietary software where an annual fee 10 Data are available for the last 17 years, and all is required to keep the system operating. It is the name collected data have been digitized. Some of the of a software product and is the name in full form. 43 Chapter 3 Monitoring Network and Forecasting DHMS collects and archives observations from anticipated volumes of data and information surface stations, consisting of the surface weather to be collected, there will be an increase in stations (automatic weather station, Class A, and data volume by several orders of magnitude. Class C), hydrological stations, and snow and This will require strengthening of the database glacier stations. Since there is no connection management system. to WIS, data and products from international meteorological centers are not available and thus are not stored. Data transmission and maintenance Products available over the WIS that would be of Field staff transfer data to headquarters at 3 pm great value to the DHMS and could be stored on daily by telephone (maximum and minimum local servers for later analysis and distribution temperature, rainfall, cloud coverage, and relative include satellite products, numerical weather humidity). In addition, data on rainfall, storm, forecasts (both model output statistics and and lightning are conveyed by telephone when graphical output), and surface data from regional a severe weather event occurs. At the main stations. DHMS office in Thimphu, data are first entered in a register and then entered in the model for The DHMS uses quality control on its data and forecasting weather for the next day. For Class A uses HYDATA for the quality control of at least hydrologic data. The process of meteorological stations, data recording is done by DHMS staff data quality control is unknown at this time. in all 20 districts. On-site operators record more details, such as wind speed and sunshine hour, DHMS outreach is limited by its website because but they only communicate to headquarters what it appears to be offline much of the time.11 This, is required for the weather forecast. The entire of course, interrupts the lines of communication observation sheet is sent to headquarters at the and reduces visibility between the DHMS end of every one or two months, and a field book and the public. Instead, the DHMS relies on a is maintained at the site. For Class C stations, partnership with public broadcasters to distribute the DHMS has hired part-time observers who information, such as the 24-hour weather maintain a field book and send the observation forecasts made by the DHMS. The department sheet to Thimphu every three months. These is limited to providing data on a request basis data are for the record and can be used for only, as the website does not provide a method climate data such as for monsoon outlooks, to download either real-time or archived data. cold waves, heat waves, and cyclones and are Data provided on a request basis means that eventually stored in a database in Thimphu. For the sparse DHMS staff must manually gather these manual stations, data loggers and other the data required and send this off to the users. spare parts are stored in the head office. The Automation of this process will allow DHMS only quality checks for collected data is done at staff to tend to more important tasks, such as the head office. No data processing or analysis is developing and refining forecast techniques. done. Data processing and analysis are found to be Observers stationed at the sites conduct minor commensurate with the modes of data recording maintenance. A team of technicians from the and transfer from the field. Data processing can field offices and officials from the head office handle the existing stream of data, but with the conduct the annual maintenance. When there are See the DHMS website: http://www.moea.gov.bt/ 11 major technical issues, the same teams attend as departments/department.php?id=4. needed. 44 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Photo 1 Meteorological Division work area Use of IMD and other agency for preparing national forecasts forecasts and products The Meteorology Division at the DHMS issues 24-hour weather forecasts once a day for one selected location for one district, relying heavily upon other international centers for information. The DHMS’s weather forecasts are deterministic, and currently they do not have the capability to produce probabilistic forecasts. Based on specific users’ requests, the Division provides three-day forecasts but with a lot of uncertainty. More generally, forecasts are prepared Source: World Bank team. using meteograms issued by the Indian Meteorological Department for cities in India close to the Bhutan border and For flood warning stations, the hourly water level experimentally for Paro and Thimphu. information is passed on to the nodal control centers Building upon IMD forecasts, meteorologists and the head office through high frequency radio. at the DHMS make adjustments with a This information is then passed on to partners in spreadsheet. The IMD provides the DHMS India in West Bengal and Assam. For automatic special access to meteograms for stations near stations, data come directly to the server in the the border between India and Bhutan. An head office through General Packet Radio Service example of a meteogram developed by the (Internet over mobile network) and through IMD for Paro is shown in the Global System for Mobile Communications Figure 4. Standard used by mobile communications providers’ short message service. The DHMS takes this type of product from IMD and projects the results for different cities within Bhutan for 24-hour forecasts. Analysis and forecast systems The use of meteograms is a good idea, The DHMS provides skeletal hydromet data, and it would become more powerful if the products, and services at this time. It currently meteograms used were generated from a prepares forecasts using a single computer. Photo 1 broad set of numerical models and plotted shows the existing computer systems used to prepare with the verification of past data. Figure 5, the daily weather forecasts. The DHMS does not produced from the Iowa State University have either a meteorological or hydrological forecast website, shows an example of a meteogram system in place that allows for the development of for accumulated snowfall using 12 different forecasts through a meteorological workstation. model inputs. It would be beneficial for the These are extremely valuable because they DHMS to acquire the capability to generate automatically assimilate meteorological data and meteograms such as this automatically for use products, and numerous products can be viewed on by weather forecasters. a single screen. This simplifies the task of preparing forecasts, allowing the forecaster to analyze the many The DHMS also subscribes to MetGIS, which streams of data rather than manually collecting and is a cloud-based forecast system (used over switching between screen views to evaluate data. the Internet with data and products residing 45 Chapter 3 Monitoring Network and Forecasting Figure 4 Meteogram developed by IMD for Paro, Bhutan, April 11, 2014 Source: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml Figure 5 Example of a Meteogram Source: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml 46 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan elsewhere). This service is reasonably priced at Severe weather forecasts need to be further about €2,500 per year and provides forecasts developed through the introduction of better based on numerical models run by the European forecast tools and instruments, such as radars, community that are also freely available on WIS. and developing the capacity of the forecasters. Unfortunately, the MetGIS product does not Forecast on threats to air navigation, such include a complete suite of models developed in as wind shear, lies with the DCA and is not other international meteorological communities. within the mandate of the DHMS. The DHMS Having all models would allow the forecasters issues an annual monsoon outlook, which to compare the forecasts between different gives information, among other factors, on the models and select the best performing model quantity and onset of the monsoon mainly as for a given situation. Other obstacles to getting information for farmers. It is done by using data from MetGIS, or any other source on the the Climate Predictability Tool and statistical Internet, are the general problems with Internet analysis, with results verified from the regional availability and significant interruptions to outlooks. Internet connectivity at the DHMS forecast office. Challenges with using MetGIS also relate The mandate of the Meteorology Division also to the frequency of updates. Since it is only includes climate change assessment. However, updated twice a day, in the absence of other tools, it does not have the right tools and access to forecasters are forced to use older updates for global data. The availability of meteorological forecasting. data for the last 17 years is not sufficient to assess long-term climate trends within Bhutan. The DHMS is also exploring the development The Meteorology Division needs to develop of a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model using this capacity. Going forward, the Meteorology the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Division should first improve the accuracy of model developed in the United States. The short-term forecasts and then build the capacity DHMS uses the Global Forecast System (GFS) for longer-range forecasts and climate analysis. global data to initiate the model, with no other data assimilation. There can be at least three model runs in 24 hours as it takes approximately Hydrological forecasts and 6 hours to run the model. Currently the WRF warnings is being calibrated and, once operational, it is The Flood Warning Section (FWS) under the expected to improve the accuracy of forecasts Hydrology Division does not produce any produced by the department. The model flood forecasts but issues flood warnings when run is often hindered by insufficient Internet high levels in rivers are observed. Water levels, bandwidth in populating the WRF model with which are observed at varying frequencies the GFS global data. Lack of Internet bandwidth across seasons, are relayed to headquarters. combined with insufficient computer processing The information is placed on a whiteboard and power has marginalized this effort. shared throughout the Hydrology Division. The Division issues flood warnings based on a Currently, the DHMS does not have the ability routing scheme using water level and discharge or the observation system to monitor or data from higher elevation hydrological stations forecast significant hydrometeorological and to warn downstream communities of high water. severe weather events in Bhutan, such as wind Photo 2 shows a whiteboard at the DHMS office storms, hail, and cloud burst. The DHMS does in Thimphu, displaying water level at 21 of the 26 issue some severe weather forecasts on cyclone primary and secondary stations. Water level and warnings, heavy rainfall, and snow forecasts. discharge data are the key input used in issuing 47 Chapter 3 Monitoring Network and Forecasting Photo 2 Whiteboard with recorded water also monitors, through FWS, a few glacial lakes levels from surface water stations at (Luggye, Thorthormi, Rapstreng, and Baytsho), DHMS office in Thimphu where the water level is measured with an automatic system as a part of GLOF EWS in the Punakha–Wangdue Valley. FWS used to be a separate unit; the main reason behind merging it with HD was to institutionalize the use of data collected for both India and Bhutan. The mechanism for dissemination and information sharing between agencies and to the public needs to be further worked out. As the HD program is transformed from a warning program to a forecasting and warning program, provisions to handle real-time data and an operational flood forecast model will require considerable improvement in human skills and computer resources. Forecast skill and verification Source: World Bank team, February 2014. As discussed, the DHMS’s forecast process is relatively simple, and the accuracy of forecasts flood warnings in Bhutan, as the Hydrology is unclear. This is attributed to the lack of Division does not use hydrologic models a forecast verification system and feedback of the verification results into the forecast With 40 staff members, FWS is fully funded development process. Continuous improvement by the government of India through CWC. in forecasting is driven by a strong verification FWS collects and shares data with India for use process that includes the evaluation of the in monitoring downstream floods. Although performance of numerical weather products and information from these stations is shared with the performance of the forecast meteorologist the central office in Thimphu, it is not used to in building the forecast. A forecast verification provide flood warning within Bhutan in any process that produces feedback will lead to systematic way. If the data indicate possible rapid and substantial improvements in the floods within the country, information is weather forecasts. In addition to upgrading shared informally (likely through a telephone the observation network, improvement in the call) in an ad-hoc manner with DDM, as DHMS’s capacity to provide accurate and timely there is no standard operating procedure in warnings and forecasts and strengthened service place or institutionalized mechanism to share delivery will require improvements in a number information. of areas (see Table 18). There is a standard operating procedure for GLOF in the Punakha-Wangdue valley, for Summary which an early warning system is also in place, The DHMS’s limited observation system and and the Hydrology Division (HD) informs the forecasting capacity impairs its ability to perform agencies accordingly. The Hydrology Division routine weather services, issue weather and 48 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 18 Assessment of the DHMS’s ability to provide key hydromet information Needs to be Task Acceptable Needs strengthening established Agromet information delivery ✓ Climate forecasting ✓ Data center ✓ Fire weather forecasting ✓ Flash flood forecasting ✓ Flood forecasting ✓ Monsoon forecasting ✓ Monsoon Outlook ✓ Numerical weather prediction ✓ Operation and maintenance ✓ Public information delivery ✓ Quality assurance/quality control ✓ QPF ✓ Weather forecasting ✓ Web presence ✓ Source: World Bank team hydrological forecasts and warnings for extreme 24 glacial lakes that are potentially dangerous. events, issue medium- or extended-range Even considering ongoing development partner forecasts, and monitor long-term climate trends support to strengthen GLOF early warning in the country. It also presents a gap in global systems in the Mangde Chu and Chamkhar data that would be useful to assimilate into global Chu river basins, there is a significant need to and regional numerical weather prediction strengthen GLOF early warning systems in the models being run at global and regional remaining high-risk glacial lakes in Bhutan. centers. At the moment, the DHMS lacks the basic infrastructure, such as reliable Internet While network density needs to be improved, connectivity, a link to the WIS, or adequate the DHMS also needs to strengthen its capacity computing resources, to carry out its tasks. Its in areas yet uncharted, such as developing the ground monitoring system is mainly manual, and capacity for upper air observation, having access there is a need to invest in real-time stations and to radar, and developing capacity for weather telemetry in a sustainable way. Meteorological and hydrological forecasting. The development measurements are underrepresented at the of these forecast systems will require enhanced higher elevations, where access is difficult and the computing power, training, and a highly reliable, climate is forbidding. Only one station represents high bandwidth Internet connection along 19 percent of the land area above 3,600 meters. with connection to WIS. Most important, in While regional institutions are partnering with coordination with user agencies, the DHMS the DHMS to monitor decadal shifts in glaciers needs to upgrade its infrastructure and capacity in the Bhutan Himalayas, the DHMS needs to deliver demand-driven sector-specific climate to strengthen its own capacity in cryosphere services, such as agromet services, that can meet monitoring and early warning systems, given the weather and climate information needs of its mandate. Existing research has highlighted user communities in Bhutan. n 49 M o d e r n i z i n g W e a t h e r , W a t e r a n d C l i m a t e S e r v i c e s : A R o a d M a p f o r B h u t a n Photo: mantosh | Thinktock.com Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis 51 Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis T his chapter reviews the institutional and In July 2002, when the DoP was restructured into organizational structure of the DHMS at the Department of Energy (DoE), the Bhutan the national and subnational levels and Power Corporation, and the Bhutan Electricity identifies areas needing capacity strengthening. Authority, the Hydromet Services Division The information is based on detailed discussions (HMSD) was created under DoE. The HMSD carried out with DHMS officials and other consisted of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Flood stakeholders. Warning Sections. It had the responsibility for planning and designing the hydrometeorological network for hydropower planning, weather Institutional history of the DHMS and flood forecasting, energy generation The genesis of hydromet services in Bhutan scheduling, dissemination of data to end users dates back to 1965, when a few rain gauges were (hydropower plants, other design/development established by RGoB. Collection of temperature agencies, etc.), publishing data books, and data started in 1977 (at Paro Airport and Bhur).12 international cooperation in flood warning The importance of hydromet data in Bhutan was and flood prevention measures. The HMSD recognized in the early 1980s for hydropower was established as an equivalent to national development by the Department of Power hydromet services of other countries mandated (DoP) under the Ministry of Trade and Industry with the national responsibility for hydrology (renamed the Ministry of Economic Affairs in and meteorology. In December 2011, the HMSD 2007) and for agricultural development by the was upgraded to a full-fledged department and Department of Agriculture (DoA) under the named the Department of Hydromet Services as Ministry of Agriculture. The earliest stations a national center for weather, climate, and water (Class C: climatology stations) installed by the resources to establish and operate a national DoP commenced in 1981, while all DoA stations hydrometeorological network for data collection. commenced in 1985. The decision to establish the DHMS was approved by the Cabinet (Council of Ministers) Prior to 1990, in the absence of a central agency and subsequently created by the Royal Civil responsible for hydrometeorological data Service Commission as per the endorsement collection, data were collected by the respective by the Cabinet. It is designated as the main line agencies to fulfill their requirements as technical agency responsible for providing early needed for project implementation. Then during warnings related to hydrometeorological hazards, implementation of the Bhutan Power System including glacier lake outburst floods. Master Plan project by the DoP in 1990–93, a national hydrometeorological network covering the whole country was designed and implemented. Department of Hydromet In July 1991, the hydromet unit under the DoA Services: 2011–present was transferred to the DoP, and the Hydrology and The DHMS is one of eight departments under Meteorology units were created under the DoP the MoEA (see Figure 6). The MoEA’s overall in 1991. Sections on data collection and sediment mandate is to promote a green and self-reliant lab were also established. When the Department economy sustained by an information technology of Telecom became a corporation in 2001, its (IT)-enabled knowledge society. Its activities hydromet section was transferred to the DoP and are guided by the philosophy of gross national named the Flood Warning Section. happiness, with the mission of creating an enabling environment, including institutions and The Bhur Met station was established by the Ministry 12 of Agriculture, and the Met station at Paro Airport was infrastructure, for the sustainable growth of the established by the Department of Civil Aviation). economy through the public and private sectors. 52 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Figure 6 Ministry of Economic Affairs Organizational Structure Minister Secretary Joint Secretary ICT Dept. of Dept. of Trade PPD Unit Geology & Mines Six Regional Offices Dept. of Dept. of Industry IAU Hydro-Power Thimphu & Power Systems P/ling S/Jongkhar Dept. of Cottage & Store Gelephu AFD Dept. of Small Industry Unit Trongsa Renewable Energy Mongar Intellectual Property HRD Dept. of Division Hydro-met Services Bhutan Electricity Autonomous Tourism Council Authority Affiliates of Bhutan Source: RGoB 2014. The DHMS is Bhutan’s national center for relatively new department, the DHMS enjoys weather, climate, and water resources. Its strong support from senior officials at the mandate is to provide reliable and timely MoEA at the time of writing this report. Also, as hydrometeorological information and services discussed earlier, it is a new organization and has needed by various agencies, users, and the public. historically had several different organizational Its main functions are highlighted in Box 1. homes. Given this, at present it is recommended that the focus should be on strengthening Consultations with stakeholders during the the country’s monitoring, forecasting, and preparation of this report indicates that there human resource capacity and on developing is an ongoing discussion on the organizational the capacity of basic weather and hydrological location of the DHMS within the MoEA, and service delivery. The issue of the institutional its alignment with the overall mandate of location of the DHMS, while important, requires MoEA, particularly given the DHMS’s unique more detailed political economy analysis and mandate to provide weather, water, and climate consultations, which is outside the scope of this services to diverse sectors beyond the mandate report and can be addressed as a follow-up to of the MoEA. Even though it is a small and this activity. 53 Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis Box 1 The Department of Hydromet Services Develop policies, legislation, and regulations related to hydromet services XX Establish and operate national hydrometeorological network to monitor and collect weather, climate, water, XX and environmental data Set up and operate telecommunication for data acquisition, information dissemination, and delivery of XX hydromet-related services Advance science and technology in weather, climate, and water through research and development XX Participate in the development and operation of national multihazard early warning system XX Fulfill relevant international and regional commitments and further national interest through participation in XX programs and activities under such agreements and conventions Set up and operate data archival, processing, and forecasting system to develop hydromet services for XX protection of life and property Develop capacity in the field of hydrology and meteorology XX Source: DHMS 2014a. Importance of appropriate the DHMS provides raw data. A data sharing policies and regulations policy could be important for the DHMS There is a need to provide a better policy, because with a cutting-edge open data policy, the legal and regulatory perspective of the DHMS department can also lead the way and show how in the context of legal instruments like the data sharing can improve weather forecasting National Environmental Protection Act, and climate prediction both for its national Disaster Management Act, Water Act, and purposes and for regional and global weather others that are contingent on provision of and climate prediction. The policy can outline effective hydromet services. As suggested by types of data, hydromet services, and products the World Meteorological Organization, most that it produces and can be shared; who can have national meteorological and hydrological access; the timeliness and relevance of data and services (NMHSs) should have a policy and legal information sharing for routine and extreme framework to guide their activities (see Box 2). events; and the contribution to global public At present, however, the DHMS does not have a goods. Implementing a data sharing policy can national hydromet services policy or associated also provide guidance on data management and regulations that can support delivery of help the DHMS share information in an efficient hydromet services. Absence of a legal framework way internally and with national, regional, and affects The DHMS’s credibility with end users. international stakeholders. The process of preparing a policy was recently initiated. Preparation of a legal framework is also needed to validate and legitimize the DHMS’s Developing a national mandate and service delivery goals and to clarify framework for climate services the types of services that users can expect. As per the WMO-led Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) initiative (see Box The DHMS also does not have a data sharing 3),13 climate services refer to the provision of policy with either internal or external users. climate information that can support decision It shares data for free on request from various agencies. Interested parties submit a requisition 13 For more information, see WMO 2009e and Hewitt, officially through a data requisition form, and Mason, and Walland 2012. 54 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Box 2 WMO recommendations for national meteorological and hydrological services Legal, institutional, and multilateral issues A legal foundation and the integration of hydromet services into national development policies are essential to XX successfully implement NMHS. Consider all advantages of regional cooperation and work in close collaboration with other NMHSs in the area XX of data sharing, transfer of capacity, knowledge sharing, training, etc. Consider all international agreements on climate services. XX Observing, monitoring, and data sharing Use standardized system according to WMO’s Global Climate Observing System. XX Establish the connection and implement the WMO Information System. A good Internet connection XX is necessary to efficiently process hydromet data and ensure good communication with other national stakeholders and international partners. Feedback from end users is crucial to ensure that hydromet delivery services meet users’ needs. It is essential to XX guarantee a continuous improvement of hydromet services provided by the NMHS. Build strong relations with media to enhance service delivery to end users. XX Data processing and forecasting Ensure good computer resources and equipment and trained human resources to ensure the quality of services. XX Rely on regional specialized meteorological centers, global producing centers, and regional climate centers, XX which provide useful data and information for implementing activities in the area, such as agriculture, water resources, energy, and health. R&D and new technologies Always consider R&D and the research of the best-suited technologies (hydrological and meteorological XX equipment, computer resources, etc.) to enhance hydromet delivery services. Training Training is critical for both technical and nontechnical staff and for employees on the field and at headquarters. XX Training must cover building capacity of technical staff working on hydrometeorological modification and forecasting as well in other sectors such as administrative support and communications. Source: World Meteorological Organization, “Statement on the Role and Operation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Directors,” Cg-XVI, annex to paragraph 11.7.1 of the general summary. making and allow users to reduce the impacts (e.g., observations and monitoring pillar) are of climate-related hazards and increase benefits already being developed. However, much needs from benign climate conditions. Development to be done over the years in developing research of climate services needs to be based on credible capacity for climate services, a historical climate information, be responsive to user needs, and database and real time observation network, have adequate engagement between users and climate services information systems, and a user providers (Hewitt, Mason, and Walland 2012). interface platform through collaboration with other sector agencies. Given their impact on At present, Bhutan does not have a national framework for climate services. As discussed in the economy and the importance to economic Chapter 2, there is significant demand from a growth and livelihoods, three sectors—disaster range of sector agencies for hydrometeorological preparedness, hydropower, and agriculture— and climate services. And as described in could be considered priority areas for the Chapter 3, some elements of the framework development of climate services. 55 Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis Box 3 Global Framework for Climate Services The Global Framework for Climate Services is a WMO-led initiative that started in 2009. Its objective is to “enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice on the global, regional and national scale” (WMO 2009e). GFCS work at present focuses on four sectors: agriculture and food security, water, health, and disaster risk reduction. GFCS has four main pillars: User interface platform. This is a provider-user interface that engages users to determine their needs and XX priorities and the products that will be useful and that identifies capacity development requirements with the aim of using the feedback to adjust research and observational efforts. Climate services information systems. This refers to a mechanism through which information about past, XX present, and future climate is routinely collected, stored, and processed to generate products and services across climate-sensitive activities. Observations and monitoring research. This refers to collection, management, and dissemination of climate XX observations, data, and metadata. Modeling and prediction. This pillar focuses on improving the scientific quality of climate information by XX providing an evidence base for the impacts of climate change and variability and the cost-effectiveness of using climate information. Capacity development cuts across and is needed for all four areas. Source: Hewitt, Mason, and Walland 2012. Organizational structure is still with the Department of Civil Aviation. of the DHMS A Chief heads each of the four divisions. Each division has several sections. Since December 2011 the DHMS has developed an organizational structure that accounts Some adjustments to this organizational structure for most of the important divisions and may be advisable. First, both the Hydrology sections common to national hydrological Division and the Meteorology Division have their and meteorological service institutions own operation and maintenance sections, which internationally. Quite significantly, it combines is a duplication of effort. A separate division meteorological and hydrological sections within the same department, making coordination could be established to handle operation and between forecasting and service delivery maintenance for all of the DHMS. It could also easier. This is often not the case (e.g., in Sri house the calibration facility. An O&M Division Lanka, India, and Bangladesh), which makes could account for all equipment and support coordination between meteorology and regional centers in their efforts to maintain field hydrology challenging. Figure 7 provides the equipment. In the future, it could also maintain approved organizational map of the DHMS, such systems as upper air and radar. although some of these units are not yet in place. Second, the approved organogram combines The DHMS Director leads management of the functions of weather and flood forecasting the department’s four divisions. These include and warning in the National Weather and Flood Planning Coordination and Research Division Forecasting and Warning Center. There is a (PCRD), the Meteorology Division (MD), the substantial difference in these three activities, Hydrology Division, and the Snow and Glacier so combining them does not add value. The Division. The Aviation Meteorology Division Weather Forecast Center would be better off 56 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Figure 7 Department of Hydromet Services Organogram of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Services (DHMS) Ministry of Economic Affairs (Approved by RCSC Order No. RCSC/HRMD/7/2011/316 dated 21 July 2011) Department of Hydro-met Services (DHMS) Director Planning Hydrology Meteorology Snow and Glacier Coordination and Division Division Division Research Division Chief Hydrology Chief Meteorology Chief HO Chief Hydro-Met Officer Officer (Glaciologist) Officer Program Operation Flood Operation and Snow Coordination Management Warning Maintenance Monitoring Section Section Section Section Section Information Data Processing Data Processing Data Processing Glacier Management and Unit Unit Unit Monitoring Research Section Section Construction and Instrument and Construction and Instrumentation Communication Instrumentation Unit Unit Unit Flood/GLOF Agro-met/ Warning Unit Climatology Section Note: National Weather, Sediment Flood Forecasting HO: Hydrology Officer Aviation Laboratory and Warning Center MO: Mteorology Officer Meteorology (NWFFWC) Section OS: Office Assistant TMO: Technical Weather Maintenance Officer Forecasting Unit Regional Hydro-met Office Regional Office (West) Regional Office (Centre) Regional Office (East) remaining a section under the Meteorology Planning, Coordination, and Research Division, with the River Forecast Center a section Division under the Hydrology Division. The Warning As its name suggests, the PCRD is responsible Center can actually be a section under PCRD, for the important tasks of planning, budgeting which already handles communication between coordination, and research at the DHMS. It is the DHMS and stakeholders. also responsible for human resources, staffing, and training. In addition, it is responsible 57 Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis Table 19 Functions of the PCRD and identified gaps Functions Identified gaps Planning and designing of hydromet monitoring network required for XX hydropower, flood, and weather forecasting Prepare fiscal budget (capital works) and five-year plans for the XX Inadequate staff for planning XX department and describing stakeholders’ needs Provide technical sanction to implement works by the department XX Lack of technology and tools XX Monitoring and evaluation of department plans, programs, and XX for data quality checking and activities a comprehensive database Database management and quality control XX management system Publication of reports, bulletins, and data yearbook and dissemination XX Lack of staff and software XX Maintain web page and servers XX for data integration Act as focal point for releasing hydrometeorological information to XX Lack of trained staff to fully XX national and international agencies and donors through head of carry out the functions agency Lack of trained staff to fully XX Improve methods, procedures, and techniques in hydrometapplication XX carry out the functions including station network design, specification, and standardization of Lack of research orientation, XX instruments and database management system staff, technology and tools Research related activities on hydrometeorology and water resources, XX (models) climate change impacts, etc. Lack of trainers within the XX Coordinate with other agencies, ministries, and external stakeholders XX DHMS Evaluate staffing patterns, human resources, and recruitment of XX technical and support staff in coordination with Human Resources Department, skills training for data and information management, and activities. Further, infrastructure constraints, communication with stakeholders. This includes such as the absence of a comprehensive processing and archiving hydrometeorological database management system, limited Internet data; maintaining the quality and security of connectivity, and limited access to software for archived data; publishing reports, bulletins, and data integration, constrain PCRD’s activities. The data yearbooks; maintaining and updating the division also does not have the capacity and tools department’s common database, web page, and (models) to undertake extensive research or the servers; and being the focal point for releasing technical skills to do staff training. Strengthening hydrometeorological information to national and PCRD will be an important part of institutional international agencies. reform in the DHMS’s modernization process. Several factors constrain PCRD’s capacity to deliver on this wide and complex function (see Meteorology Division Table 19). First, for PCRD to undertake planning Until a few years ago, the MD catered mainly to and design activities, it must have a strategic the needs of the hydropower sector. Now it is a plan. Such a plan is currently under preparation division under the DHMS and currently operates but is not yet in place. Another critical challenge and manages the surface weather stations and is limited staffing. At present, the PRCD has only provides a 24-hour weather forecast. Within eight staff members, and two approved positions the MD are the Agromet and Climatology are unfilled. With such limited staff, the PCRD Section and the Aviation Meteorology Section. is not in a position to fully carry out all of its The MD has 36 approved staff positions at the 58 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 20 Functions of the MD and identified gaps Functions Identified gaps Administer and review the implementation of department’s XX meteorological plans, programs, and policies Provide daily weather forecast information to the public based on XX Lack of models and XX observation and study of models computer resources Research and study long-range forecasts; prepare seasonal forecasts XX WIS link with WMO not yet XX (monsoon outlook) annually for information to public established Study/observe extreme weather events such as cyclones and heavy XX Lack of specifically trained XX rainfall for press release and timely information to public staff Analysis and research works on climatic data for specific purposes XX Lack of adequate funds, XX Planning of meteorological network and establishment of new XX mobile lab for recalibration, stations; operation and maintenance of existing meteorological and maintenance and field network (11 real time AWS, 20 Class A, 61 Class C stations) across technical staff the country Lack of technology and tools XX Meteorological data collection, quality control, archiving and database XX for data quality checking and management; provide climate data and services to government for a comprehensive database planning of developmental activities for specific studies and projects, management including in private sector Agromet section not XX Data processing in coordination with PCRD for archive in a central XX fully established; aviation database for statistical analysis, dissemination, and publication meteorology not yet merged Maintain agrometeorology and related information database required XX with the DHMS for Renewable Natural Resources (RNR) sector in future Collect and provide aviation forecast services in future XX headquarters in Thimphu, of which 16 are filled or sector-specific climate service delivery. and 20 are not filled. Currently, the MD has 16 staff at headquarters and 20 field staff (mapped Moreover, the division’s activities are constrained with regional offices) involved in data collection by limited Internet connectivity and a lack of and maintenance of equipment related to the access to an automated observation network, synoptic and climate stations. models, infrastructure, and computer resources. Without connection to the WIS link, the Some of the main constraints faced by the MD MD cannot access global or regional data. are listed in Table 20. As with other divisions, Nor can it relay data back to the WIS. All of these are related to technical, institutional, and these factors constrain its services relating to financial factors. As discussed in Chapter 3, weather forecasting and climate monitoring and one main constraint is the lack of sufficient and prediction. adequately trained staff. Local universities do not have departments that provide training in meteorology. Even though some sections are Hydrology Division organizationally approved, they have limited The Hydrology Division is in charge of staff. For example, the Agromet and Climatology monitoring and maintaining the hydrology section has one staff member and the Aviation network, sediment sampling, and related Meteorology has no staff assigned. With such operational hydrology activities (see Table 21). limited staffing, it is not possible for these It is also responsible for issuing flood warnings sections to carry out routine weather forecasting and forecasts to mitigate flood-related disasters 59 Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis Table 21 Functions of the HD and identified gaps Functions Identified gaps Administer operational hydrology plans and programs XX Lack of funds and technical XX Establish hydrological, flood/GLOF monitoring and warning, and XX staff for maintenance; lack sediment sampling stations of mobile workshop for Monitor and maintain overall operation of communication facilities XX recalibration, maintenance of equipment Transmit real-time data from the monitoring stations to Data XX Processing Unit and also to NWFFWC Most appropriate mode of XX transmission not yet found; Collect low-flow data from east-west tributaries, ad hoc XX lack of funds; recurrent costs measurements of rivers and streams based on agency requests Lack of measurement XX Maintain a hydrological and sediment database and undertake XX network primary data processing in coordination with PCRD Lack of comprehensive XX Provide timely flood forecasting and warning services to mitigate XX database system flood-related disasters Lack of modeling technology XX Transmit flood information to the National Emergency Operation XX and trained staff Center (Department of Disaster Management), hydropower generation companies, and related agencies Lack of policy guidelines, XX coordination mechanism, and Share and exchange real-time hydrometeorological data with other XX standard operating procedure countries and other regional and international organizations and early warnings of glacier lake outburst floods; The HD faces a combination of institutional, transmitting flood information to the National organizational, technical, and resource Emergency Operation Center (at the Department challenges. It has 27 approved staff positions, of of Disaster Management), hydropower generation which 17 are in place and 10 are not filled. Of companies, and related agencies; and exchanging the 17 existing staff, 8 are based in Thimphu. real-time hydrometeorological data with Their activities include issuing flood warnings other countries and regional and international and performing suspended sediment analysis. organizations. At present, there are only three HD There are also 75 nontechnical field positions sections: Operation and Maintenance, Sediment mapped to the HD. The HD relies on them for Laboratory, and Flood Warning. Flood/GLOF water level measurements across the country Warning is one of the Units under the Flood and operation and maintenance of hydrological Warning Section. In the approved organizational stations. However, there is a dire need for structure, the National Weather and Flood staff training in a number of areas, including Forecasting and Warning Centre (NWFFWC) hydrological analysis and modeling (hydrology, is proposed but it is not yet operational. It was flood routing), flash flood analysis, sediment proposed that the NWFFWC will have staff monitoring and data analysis, and dissemination from both MD and HD to work together. Staff of flood warnings (web-based interfaces). from NWFFWC will mainly be from the Flood/ Moreover, the absence of policies, regulations, GLOF Warning Unit of FWS in HD and from the and standard operating procedures for flood Weather Forecasting Section of MD. early warning systems limits the division’s ability to perform its work. Operationally, the HD meets its designated functions only partially. As discussed in Chapter Further, the HD does not have any modeling 3, at present the FWS under the HD does not capacity and does not perform flood forecasts produce forecasts but only flood warnings, when that extend beyond monitoring water levels river water levels are high. and warning downstream users. It suffers 60 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 22 Functions of the SGD and identified gaps Functions Identified gaps Formulate polices, plans, and programs related to snow and glacier XX monitoring in Bhutan Manage and coordinate the general operations of the snow and glacier XX Policy to be developed by XX monitoring networks in consultation with other divisions of the department RGoB Establish new snow gauging and glacier mass balance stations in the XX Program not yet started; lack XX country of funds and staff Initiate and conduct snow surveys and measurements across country; XX Lack of funds and staff XX coordinate with national line agencies pertaining to snow and glacier Need RGoB policy clarifying XX monitoring works, data collection, etc. roles of different agencies Initiate and conduct studies and research on snow and glaciers XX Lack of technology and tools XX Maintain regional, national, and international cooperation related to XX WIS link with WMO not XX cryopshere science, data collection, data sharing, etc.  established Provide technical input and support to the RGoB on various issues, XX strategies, and prospects related to the country’s water resources and climate change, especially related to snow and glaciers from a lack of funds and technical staff for and warning purposes to the Indian states of maintenance and a lack of mobile workshops for Assam and West Bengal. The CWC has 15 water recalibration and maintenance of equipment. The level and rainfall stations in Bhutan. They are measurement network and appropriate mode of mainly manual, but GoI is in the process of data transmission, as discussed in Chapter 3, also replacing them with automated stations. The need to be developed. Data storage, management, FWS within the Hydrology Division is fully and processing must also be upgraded through funded by the GoI, which also supports the a comprehensive database system and the use salaries of about 40 DHMS staff. of improved modeling technology. Moreover, database software capable of performing time series analysis (including statistical) and modeling Snow and Glacier Division software (hydrological, river hydrodynamic, The SGD is tasked with monitoring the country’s forecasting) needs to be acquired. The division snowpack and glaciers. Its programs are aimed faces an ongoing lack of funds for capital and at tracking the accumulation and melting of the recurrent costs. The lack of fully functioning snow and glacial fields. The SGD is tasked with regional offices also constrain it. preparing policies and plans related to snow and glaciers, managing and maintaining the The DHMS, particularly its Hydrology Division, monitoring network, and undertaking surveys has strong ties with the government of India across the country (see Table 22). However, being under bilateral cooperation agreements. established in 2013, it is the newest division Cooperation between the GoI through the at the DHMS and is not able to fully meet its Central Water Commission and Bhutan on mandate and faces constraints similar to those of data sharing goes back to the 1950s. The Flood other divisions. Warning Section under the Hydrology Division was set up by the GoI. This section transmits The SGD has 13 approved positions. Of these, rainfall and river level data for flood forecasting 5 are filled and 8 are unfilled. The existing staff 61 Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis undertakes snow and glacier monitoring and number of nontechnical staff. The field positions analysis, as discussed in Chapter 3. Lack of are all nontechnical positions. sufficient staff, resources, monitoring network, and infrastructure make it difficult for officials Most of the technical positions are filled by to systematically monitor glacier change or engineers. There are few university-trained undertake any related research. The division meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, or carries out its functions in a limited way, hydrologists (see Table 24). This is a significant preparing reports on the status of the snow gap because the national hydrological and and glacier fields and making this information meteorological service staff has to be trained available to stakeholders. to cover all basic functions related to weather services, meteorology, atmospheric science, and Given the importance of snow and glacier hydrology. monitoring, the need to strengthen this division cannot be underestimated. In addition to The total number of DHMS staff as approved strengthening the monitoring network, the in the 10th Five Year Plan is 155. Out of the division needs additional funds and staff to 7 vacant positions, 4 are engineers and 3 properly manage and coordinate all operations, technicians. As information technology support such as establishing new snow gauging and glacier to all departments under MoEA has now been mass balance stations; initiating and conducting centralized by the Ministry, the approved IT snow surveys; conducting measurements and data staff person has now been transferred to the collection; and maintaining national, regional, and Ministry (though is currently on a long study international cooperation related to cryopshere leave abroad). Therefore, at the time of drafting science and research. SGD staff also need training this report, the DHMS was facing problems in to provide technical input and support to the maintaining its servers and PCs and upgrading RGoB on various strategies related to the country’s its computing facilities. water resources and analysis of climate change and variability. Across all divisions at the DHMS, there is a need for training and technical capacity strengthening. SGD’s mandate also links with the Department As previously discussed, DHMS staff members of Geology and Mines, which has traditionally have little or no access to multiple numerical carried out monitoring and mitigation-related models that would help forecasters understand activities with respect to snow, glaciers, and the forecasts’ uncertainty. Understandably, GLOFs and which has expertise in this area. knowledge of these models is not well known As SGD’s capacity on monitoring is gradually to the MD staff. When products and data start strengthened, it can continue to collaborate and streaming in from international meteorological coordinate with DGM, which eventually can centers, a gap in understanding how to use and mainly focus on mitigation-related activities. interpret these products will exist. As the DHMS begins modernizing, and as Regional and national capacities more data populate DHMS forecast systems, of the DHMS DHMS staff will need training on how to use the At present, the DHMS has approximately 148 information and tools that are part of the forecast staff members, with 53 positions in headquarters systems. A flexible, affordable, and sustainable and 95 located in the Dzongkhags (administrative training program will be required. The capacity districts) (see Table 23). All technical positions building and training effort must be multifaceted are at headquarters and are joined by a similar and should include a combination of travel 62 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 23 DHMS existing staff capacity   Regional offices   Headquarters Mongar, east Thimphu, west Bumthang, central Total Director’s Office 3 0 0 0 3 PCRD 8 0 0 0 8 HD 17 24 36 15 92 MD 16 7 8 5 36 SGD 5 0 0 0 5 Pool staff 4 0 0 0 4 Total 53 31 44 20 148 Source: DHMS 2014. Table 24 DHMS existing staff capacity by professional category Engineers / Hydrologists / Technicians / Dept./Division Meteorologist Non-technical Admin Support DHMS 2 5 PCRD 7 1 Meteorology Division 4 12 Hydrology Division 9 8 Snow & Glacier Division 4 1 Regional offices 95 Total 26 117 5 abroad, a university degree, in-country focused include offices in Bumthang and Mongar that training, and an eLearning certificate or focused will serve the central and eastern regions, training. respectively. The office at Thimphu also serves as the western regional office. Regional offices are At present, the activities of the DHMS are highly being constructed with help from the RGoB. The centralized, and there is limited capacity at the main task of the regional offices is expected to regional or basin level. At the time of preparation be O&M of the ground monitoring network and of this assessment, none of the regional offices sharing data upon request to users regionally. had been fully established or equipped. Existing In regional offices, the physical infrastructure staff members stationed out of the headquarters (building) with computers and Internet facilities are mapped to the three regions and to divisions is needed. Further, as the offices are set up, for ease of understanding by the office, which technical staff to supervise gauge readers and is why they are listed under regions in Table 23. Going forward, the regional offices will need to data checking and the digitizing of manual data be established and equipped to facilitate DHMS will also be needed. It is expected that these activities. regional offices will be involved in providing outreach to regional stakeholders and be a center The DHMS is planning to establish two regional of operations for fieldwork in the respective offices during the 11th Five-Year Plan. These regions. 63 Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis Table 25 DHMS budget for fiscal years 2012–13, 2013–14, and 2014–15 (in million USD and million Ngultrums) 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 RGOB Current USD 0.516 (Nu. 30.947) USD 0.576 (Nu. 34.575) USD 0.550 (Nu. 33) Capital USD 0.174 (Nu. 10.448) USD 0.378 (Nu. 22.676) Development Partners Current Capital USD 0.237 (Nu. 14.215) USD 0.571 (Nu. 34.242) USD 1.426 (Nu. 85.586) GOI (flood warning activity) Current USD 0.230 (Nu. 13.794) USD 0.233 (Nu. 14.009) USD 0.222 (Nu. 13.31) Capital USD 0.112 (Nu. 6.695) USD 0.149) (Nu. 8.94) USD 0.227 (Nu. 13.61) Note: Conversion rate of 1USD = Nu. 60 DHMS resources and budget The DHMS was established in 2011. Its budget for the financial years 2012–13, 2013–14, and The overall planning is based on guidelines and policy framed by the Gross National Happiness 2014–15 is provided in Table 25. The budget Commission, which is the central planning is divided into current and capital. The budget agency of the RGoB. The planning takes place comes from three sources: RGoB, development for a duration of five years and the priority partners, and the government of India for the is based on the national goals and interest of flood warning activities. the nation, the DHMS’s mandates, and the availability of resources and capacity. In line with The budget under the heading “current” the 11th Five-Year Plan, the department is also includes staff salary and allowances and under directed to prepare a five-year Human Resources the heading “capital” includes O&M of existing Development master plan to make available works / equipment and new works. In the FY long- and short-term trainings that are relevant 2012–13, no RGoB budget allocation was made to the department and to individual officials. against capital expenditure due to the fact that Figure 8 DHMS budget Figure 9 Funding allocations on capital (in million USD) expenditures 0.6 (in million USD) 1.6 0.55 1.4 1.2 0.5 1 0.8 0.45 0.6 0.4 0.4 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 0.2 Financial year 0 n RGoB current budget in Mil. USD 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 Financial year n RGoB n Donors n GOI 64 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Figure 10 Capital Budget of the DHMS 11 percent is from the government of India. Thus for FY 2014–15 over 80 percent of the capital budget came from Govt. of India 11% external sources—showing the high reliance RGoB 19% of the DHMS on external support for capital expenditures. Many of the water- and weather-related Donors 70% hazards and climate risks that Bhutan faces have regional dimensions. Examples include tropical cyclones that severely affect Bhutan the government had been dissolved and the new and also Bangladesh and the eastern coast of government did not consider this provision. In India; severe thunderstorms that commonly 2013–14, the capital budget for the new Glacier affect Nepal, Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh; and and Snow Division was introduced. The 2014–15 flooding between Bhutan and northeast Indian donor budget includes USD1 million (Nu. 60 states. Further, the monsoon system that brings million) from the UNDP / NAPA project and over 70–80 percent of water to South Asia over USD0.361 million (Nu. 21.63 million) from the the summer months has a major influence on Mangdechhu Hydroelectric Project. Budget key productive sectors such as agriculture and figures from other donor programs that are hydropower in Bhutan and in other countries directly implemented by donors (JICA, Finnish in the region. Small variations in the timing and Meteorological Institute) are not available from quantity of monsoon can have a major impact on the DHMS. Similarly, expenditures of other agricultural productivity in several South Asian cooperative programs (ICIMOD, NORAD, the countries. For transboundary weather-related U.S. Agency for International Development) are risks, it makes sense for Bhutan to collaborate not accounted for in the DHMS budget. with neighboring countries and to build on tools and forecasts already available regionally and Figure 8 shows the trend of RGoB budget in the public domain instead of building that allocation on current expenditures in three capacity from the start. fiscal years. Figure 8 shows that the operation and maintenance budget for the DHMS is very At the regional level, the DHMS is already limited, and in 2014–15 it was approximately collaborating and partnering with neighbors. USD0.550 million (Nu. 33 million). As the As discussed, the DHMS has long-standing DHMS modernizes, increasing the operation bilateral collaboration with the GoI on sharing and maintenance budget and the budget for flood-related data and warnings. The DHMS also current expenditures will be critical to long- collaborates and uses products issued by the Indian term sustainability of hydromet systems and Meteorology Department for weather forecasting. delivery of services. Without this, modernization Given the impact of Cyclone Aila on Bhutan’s efforts could be jeopardized despite RGoB and economy in 2009, it will be important for RGoB to development partner investments in capital collaborate with IMD, build on regional tropical expenditures. cyclone forecasts already issued by IMD, and tailor them to Bhutan’s context and conditions. As Figure 10 shows, for the Fiscal Year 2014–15, out of the total capital budget of Bhutan is also part of several ongoing pilot USD 2.12 million (127.21 million NU), donor regional initiatives. This includes participation contributions cover 70 percent, the RGoB in the WMO-led and IMD-coordinated South contribution is 19 percent, and the remaining Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) 65 Chapter 4 Institutional and Organizational Analysis Table 26 Activities by regional resource centers that can benefit the DHMS Regional Resource Activities done by regional resource center Activities the DHMS can strengthen in Center / Partner / partner cooperation with regional partners Analysis of impact of landfall in Bhutan, Tracking of tropical cyclone, landfall, real- BMD, IMD warning of heavy rainfall and extreme wind time satellite image analysis, modeling conditions Weather forecasting, climate modeling; Down-scaling, producing resolution IMD, NCMRWF numerical weather prediction, short-, outputs, QPF for catchment-wise flood (India), RIMES mid-, and long-term forecasting (QPF, forecasting in Bhutan, temperature for (Bangkok) temperature) snow melt modeling; capacity building Land-based monitoring (glacier, snow), Mapping and monitoring of glaciers GLOF monitoring and warning, capacity using remote sensing, GLOF analysis, and building in cooperation with ICIMOD in ICIMOD modeling; capacity building glacier monitoring with remote sensing tools; coordination with DGM HKS HYCOS, regional flood outlook Flood forecasting, capacity building Regional synoptic data sharing via WIS, Meteorological forecast in Bhutan, data global satellite-based meteorological data, sharing via WIS, implementation of WMO products, forecasts; flash flood guidance flash flood guidance system in Bhutan system (localization) General regional cooperation in Enhanced regional cooperation, data BIMSTEC, SDMC, hydrometeorology and climate-related sharing and using data in the public SMRC information domain, capacity building Flood monitoring and warning in Bhutan Improved flood forecasting and warnings CWC (India) and India in Bhutan Provision of technologies (JAXA), capacity Obtain real-time Modis data, capacity AIT (Bangkok) building building process. Regional Climate Outlook Forums were By developing its own monitoring, forecasting, established over 10 years ago by WMO and bring and human resource capacity, the DHMS will together national, international, and regional be able to make better use of information that is experts and officials from national hydromet already readily available in the public domain. agencies to produce regional climate outlooks. The recently concluded session of SASCOF, for Some of the key regional resources available to instance, discussed the various climatic features the DHMS are listed in Table 26. Also presented that may influence the South Asian summer are activities carried out by the regional resource monsoons. centers / partners and possible activities that can be done by the DHMS to improve hydromet Another regional activity that the DHMS information and products for Bhutan. participates in is the pilot Severe Thunderstorm Observation and Regional Modelling program International and regional meteorological centers being carried out under the South Asian can be of great help to the DHMS. A number Association for Regional Cooperation and led of very costly tasks are better handled at the by the IMD. The program focuses on better international level or at the South Asia regional understanding of the Nor’westers that result level. However, it needs to be clarified that not in severe damages and commonly affect India, all solutions can be found at the regional and Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. While the international centers. A national hydromet DHMS is already working with this program, agency such as the DHMS is required and has this collaboration can be further strengthened. a pivotal national mandate, including engaging 66 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan in the feedback process with in-country local exercises, such as numerical weather prediction stakeholders; improving local forecasts based (which, for instance, would be of great value to on local experience, which also involves the the DHMS). development of a forecast verification scheme to more completely understand trends and bias; This does not mean the regional center would and supporting early warning systems, which be making forecasts for Bhutan but it would requires a local presence and extreme focus on move the numerical weather products and conditions over local areas. model output statistics to the countries in the region. The DHMS could then analyze this Some of the activities that a regional information and add local forecasting techniques meteorological center can provide for Bhutan to provide a high-quality national forecast. The and other South Asia countries include the regional countries can adapt the data to their following: own situations and apply model tendencies and biases in providing the best forecast. Regional Running numerical weather prediction models XX meteorological centers can also be useful in at the mesoscale level for all countries in the providing training, including distance learning region, including producing mesoscale model and web-based training. Numerous regional quantitative precipitation forecast up to 15 meteorological centers serve regional interests, days in a gridded form for all countries in the such as climate centers, tropical cyclone warning region; producing all mesoscale model output statistics to the national meteorological centers centers, and specialized meteorological centers. The development of strong mechanisms of Collecting and sharing remote sensing data, XX cooperation with these can be another key to the such as satellite pictures with country-level success of the DHMS. zooming for each country in the region. Other satellite products, such as products from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and other Summary satellites; radar products collected throughout In line with the 11th National Five Year Plan the region; lightning products collected throughout the region (2013–18), the overall objective of capacity strengthening is to transform the DHMS from Current weather-related events such as XX a “data collecting agency” into a “reliable and extreme weather advisories; reports of ongoing credible hydromet service provider.” As this hazardous meteorological and hydrological chapter highlights, for the DHMS to move from events among regional countries (e.g., tropical the former to the latter, several issues need to cyclones, thunderstorms); monsoon onset and be addressed. The DHMS needs to develop retreat; regional climate outlooks a systematic process of assessing user needs, Regional meteorological center activities are prepare a strategic plan based on user needs often the most difficult ones to perform for a and demands to guide its planning processes, small national hydrological and meteorological put in place an adequate policy and regulatory service with a conservative budget, which is why framework, improve its technical and human collaboration and partnership with a regional resource capacity by filling approved positions center can be successful. Rather than numerous and investing in training its existing staff, invest countries engaging in what would be costly and in infrastructure with a focus on service delivery, technologically prohibitive activities alone, a and improve its operational budget to ensure regional center can address this. The regional that investments in monitoring, forecasting, and center can take on highly technical and costly service delivery are sustained over the long run. n 67 M o d e r n i z i n g W e a t h e r , W a t e r a n d C l i m a t e S e r v i c e s : A R o a d M a p f o r B h u t a n 68 Thimphu city night view. Photo: mantosh | Thinkstock.com Chapter 5 Recommendations and Road Map 69 Chapter 5 Recommendations and Road Map A s discussed in previous chapters, DHMS Indicative budget and estimates for O&M should is a relatively new agency. The services be spelled out. There are many important users it is mandated to provide are critical of DHMS products and services, including to the long-term sustainability of key economic hydropower, agriculture, tourism, infrastructure, sectors in Bhutan. Hence, modernization of the disaster risk management, and aviation. The DHMS and strengthening its service delivery DHMS will need to work in collaboration with mechanism in coordination with user agencies these sector agencies to strengthen its capacity for is essential. With development partner support, service provision and to build information and the DHMS is already in the process of upgrading decision support systems to cater to those needs. its observation network and infrastructure. It Service provision in response to user needs can also has many of the key organizational elements also allow the DHMS to explore the potential for of a national hydrological and meteorological generating revenue. The planning process should agency. However, for the DHMS to build its be iterative and ensure that services cater to user technical capacity and transform itself into a needs and have adequate staff and O&M budget to well-resourced service delivery agency, much ensure that they are sustainable over the long run. remains to be done. Based on the analysis in this report, this chapter concludes with 2. Strengthen DHMS IT assets some recommendations and a “road map” for and infrastructure modernization—and how these activities can be To enable the DHMS to do more right away with sequenced. existing capacity, a key priority is acquisition and installation of WIS and reliable high-speed While the process of modernization will Internet. The WIS provides communications to inevitably be an iterative, gradual, and long- the international observing community through term process, several actions can be undertaken the WMO. This will be the source of data and in the short to medium term to facilitate this numerical weather prediction products that by building on ongoing development partner– the DHMS can use to develop forecasts and supported activities. deliver high-quality information to stakeholders. Access to a high-speed Internet connection is also critical and must be dedicated to operations Short-term actions at the DHMS. These communication facilities (one to two years) will enable the DHMS to further explore the integration of satellite/earth observation 1. Prepare strategic plan based on data products that are becoming increasingly user needs powerful and important—perhaps by linking For the DHMS to transition from primarily with, for example, NASA/NOAA/USGS/ESA. data collection to a modern service delivery DHMS headquarters should have a minimum agency, the department should institutionalize a of two Internet connections, preferably operated systematic planning process based on consultation by different providers. A possible path for the with stakeholders. To aid this process, a second Internet connection could be space priority action for DHMS is to institutionalize a communications. Internet connections are systematic process of assessing demand from key also required for the regional offices, of which stakeholders and delivering services tailored to two are planned (in addition to the one at these needs. This can be done through discussions Thimphu). The combination of adding WIS (and with them and user surveys. The plan should have software that uses the WIS data stream) and clear goals, targets, and indicators for the plan high-speed Internet will improve substantially period, so that key outcomes can be measured. the operations and services the DHMS can 70 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan provide. The development of IT assets has a (especially workstations), and associated training high priority because data and products will be for DHMS officials. Currently the Meteorology used by various sectors. This will also require a Division performs a single 24-hour weather strengthening data management so that data can forecast for various cities throughout Bhutan be retrieved and transformed to build sector- using a relatively primitive template to provide specific products. forecasts. There is no forecast verification system in place. This important public service should be In addition to access to information technology improved. The Hydrology Division issues only hardware and software and access to the Internet, flood warnings and does not issue any flood numerous improvements in infrastructure will forecasts. Another important priority for the be required to move the DHMS forward in DHMS would be strengthening hydrological and developing improved services. This includes flood forecasting services. items such as database server, webserver, data processing server, meteorological forecast system Improvements to the Meteorology Division server, hydrological forecast system server, will include the design and acquisition of a personal computers, routers, switches, etc. It forecast system. A typical forecast system would also includes facilities such as buildings, office include several workstations that will be able to equipment, vehicles, and miscellaneous items used stream forecast models and data from regional in performing activities expected of a NMHS. and international meteorological centers over WIS and the Internet. The workstations and 3. Focus on high-priority monitoring associated processes will give the Meteorology systems Division the capability to develop longer-range The DHMS is currently in the process of weather forecasts and climate predictions. upgrading its meteorological and hydrological ground monitoring network with development Hydrological forecasts are highly dependent partner support. This is an important process on meteorological forecasts to achieve useful and should be completed. In the short term, hydrological forecast lead time, which is driven targeted monitoring systems based on user primarily by quantitative precipitation forecasts needs, that can provide quick important benefits (QPFs). Hydrological forecasting requires should be prioritized. For instance, there is a improved rainfall forecasts in the near and significant need to acquire instrumentation extended range. The Hydrology Division is a at Bhutan’s airports to ensure aviation safety stakeholder of the Meteorology Division. Thus, in the challenging meteorological conditions. strengthening the Meteorology Division will In particular, windshear alert systems and have important benefits for strengthening the ceilometers are required. This instrumentation Hydrology Division, without which the latter is necessary to assure aviation safety and is would not have the necessary information warranted for immediate purchase. to make high-value-river forecasts. After a robust weather forecast service is developed, 4. Improve basic weather and a series of products can also be developed to hydrological forecasting service a wide array of stakeholders and users. Another immediate priority area for the DHMS The Hydrology Division is also responsible is to improve its forecasting services, both basic for improving groundwater and surface water weather forecasting and also hydrological and quality measurements. Follow-up studies need flood forecasting. This can be done through to be done to design appropriate networks to investments in hardware and software, appropriate efficiently monitor groundwater and water modeling tools, acquisition of infrastructure quality. 71 Chapter 5 Recommendations and Road Map 5. Pilot end-to-end early warning systems Table 27 Recommended areas for training Monitoring and forecasting are but one part of strengthening end-to-end early warning Subjects for Training systems. The latter includes risk assessments, Aviation meteorology monitoring and forecasting, communication of warnings to communities, and the capacity Climate modeling, analysis of local communities to respond to those Convective weather warnings. EWSs are critical for disaster Emergency management preparedness. These tasks cut across several Fire weather agencies including the DHMS, DDM, DGM, Glacial science related to GLOF and glacier district and local agencies, and communities. monitoring While strengthening multihazard end-to-end Hydrology and flooding EWS in Bhutan is likely to be a medium- to Mesoscale meteorology long-term process, it is recommended that in Monsoon meteorology the short term, the DHMS collaborate with Mountain meteorology the DDM to pilot end-to-end EWS in selected Preparing hydrological forecasts hotspot districts or areas. Selection of hotspot Preparing national meteorological forecasts areas should be carried out in coordination with Quality management other agencies. Quantitative precipitation forecast/ Quantitative precipitation estimates 6. Develop training plan and staff training Radar meteorology in key areas Satellite meteorology As the DHMS expands and modernizes its Tropical meteorology: cyclones services, adequate staff with relevant expertise Use and calibration of hydrological models will be critical in carrying out its mandates and Winter weather services. To address this, in the short term, a training plan based on needs assessment should be developed for training staff in important areas Numerous distance learning programs can also such as expanded weather and hydrological augment and reinforce other forms of training. forecasting; the management of data and The advantage of distance learning is that these information; activities related to monitoring programs come at no cost aside from the staff snow, glaciers, and GLOF; and the provision time. Examples of distance learning programs are of services to users. The training program listed in Table 28. should be flexible, affordable, and sustainable. It can include a combination of travel abroad, Experience from other countries suggests that university degree, in-country focused training, the DHMS may need to send some staff for post- eLearning certificate or focused training, and so graduate degrees (as was done in Mozambique) forth. Staff development in terms of acquiring and give considerably more time to institutional degrees will be a lengthy process, thus in-country adjustments. While it waits for trained staff to to the extent possible should be utilized. Table return, it may also need to rely more on twinning 27 presents a list of topics where training is arrangements with other Meteorology services. suggested. Regardless, the adjustments in the DHMS’s work force are likely to be major. Neglect of this important issue often delays modernization of hydromet services despite intensive donor efforts and investments. 72 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 28 Distance learning programs Environmental Satellite Resource Center http://www.meted.ucar.edu/esrc/ http://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Data/ EUMETSAT Training Library Training/TrainingLibrary/index.html EUMETRAIN Training Resources http://eumetrain.org/resources.html MetEd (Education and training resources produced https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php by the COMET Program) http://www.wmo-sat.info/vlab/virtual-resource- VLab Virtual Resource Library library/ WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology http://www.caem.wmo.int/moodle/ Resources WMO Education and Training Programme http://etrp.wmo.int/moodle/ 7. Develop a long-term program for historically has had significant expertise in monitoring Bhutan’s cryosphere glacier monitoring. DGM staff with these skills Glaciers are one of Bhutan’s greatest natural can also provide increased support to SGD as and water resource assets while also serving as organizationally possible. an indicator of climate change and variability. Strengthening of snow and glacier monitoring 8. Develop plan for regional collaboration and analysis is necessary for planning adaptation Bhutan has a long-standing history of to climatic variability and improved assessment collaboration with its neighbors, particularly of GLOF-related disasters. While regional India, on weather- and water-related agencies such as ICIMOD have undertaken information. This collaboration can be expanded, highly valuable monitoring work, government particularly given the DHMS’s capacity capacity remains weak and should also be constraints. Climate and weather patterns strengthened. A comprehensive program facing Bhutan are transboundary and are best for monitoring Bhutan’s cryosphere should monitored, understood, and predicted by taking be developed. In the short term, the DHMS a regional and global perspective. Moreover, can start with prioritizing key glaciers to be there is a demand for Bhutan-specific data from monitored, the combination of techniques regional centers and a demand for regional to be used for such monitoring, and the products and information that the DHMS can development of short-, medium-, and long-term use. Collaboration has significant economies implementation plans. The government should of scale for a young organization such as the then invest in monitoring in a phased manner DHMS. Areas for regional collaboration should through a combination of techniques (ground be discussed through regional consultations and monitoring, remote sensing, etc.), ensuring can include partnership on training, forecasting, sufficient budget for sustaining this system. It EWSs for low-frequency, high-impact events, should also gradually build capacity for assessing such as cyclones, and so on. Consultations to glacier change and impact on major sectors such further strengthen regional collaboration can as hydropower and agriculture. take place in the short term and continue in the medium and long term. In parallel, staff capacity and skill at the DHMS’s Snow and Glacier Division should 9. Strengthen sector-specific also be strengthened to allow monitoring and hydrometeorological and climate services assessment of priority glaciers. In doing so, the Based on an assessment of sector-specific user SGD should coordinate with the DGM, which needs, in the short term, decision support systems 73 Chapter 5 Recommendations and Road Map and climate services in one to two targeted should be filled to keep pace with modernization priority sectors such as agriculture, hydropower, of services and be adjusted on an ongoing basis. and infrastructure should be developed. This Table 29 shows divisions and technical skills will involve extensive engagement with selected where staff capacity needs to be strengthened. agencies, improved monitoring of data relevant to those sectors, design and installation of decision As Table 29 shows, the Meteorology Division at support systems, development of sector-specific present has 36 staff positions but only 16 of these products, and dissemination to stakeholders and are currently filled. It is important that these communities. positions be filled as the DHMS moves forward in improving its weather forecasting services. The Medium-term actions increase of staff with relevant technical expertise (three to five years) will allow the Meteorology Division to develop skills in the interpretation of numerical weather 10. Prepare a policy and legal framework forecasts and aid the development of forecasts for DHMS operations up to and beyond 15 days. Also, this will allow The DHMS at present does not have a policy the weather forecaster to develop forecasts for and regulatory framework to guide its activities. severe weather, which are not performed at Development of a national hydromet legal and this time. DHMS staff has little or no access to regulatory framework will help the department multiple numerical weather models that would clarify its goals and mandates, provide clarity help weather forecasters do their job. Many on its roles and responsibilities, accord it legal of these products are or will be available from authority for its activities, and facilitate allocation meteorological centers from around the world. of resources. A hydromet legal framework will As products and data start streaming in from also help the DHMS demonstrate how it will international meteorological centers, the DHMS meet its obligations under various international will need capacity to use and interpret these agreements and WMO conventions. Concurrently, products. Strengthening of the Meteorology more-specific policies such as for data sharing Division, specifically forecast services, will also should also be prepared. Since hydrometeorology be vital to the improvement of all other science is a transboundary issue, it is also important divisions and will help support the development that the RGoB take into account cooperation of flood and flash flood forecasts in the with neighboring countries and WMO when Hydrology Division. building the legal framework. The policies and legal framework should be consistent with Similarly, capacity strengthening of the established guidelines and recommendations for Hydrology Division is also needed so it can national hydrological and meteorological service address river forecasting for flood management operations proposed by the WMO. and reservoir operations. The newly trained or new staff will need to be focused on hydrological 11. Fill approved staff positions that are forecasts using models such as those from the vacant Hydrologic Engineering Center (U.S. Army In most DHMS divisions, staff capacity is limited, Corps of Engineers). These staff will calibrate and many of the approved positions are not models and run them. Hydrologic forecasters filled. Out of a total of 195 approved positions, and analysis plus support personnel will be 148 were in place at the time of preparation of needed. They will refine rainfall predictions so this report. This makes it very difficult for the that forecasts can extend beyond the current divisions to fulfill their mandate. In the medium 24 hours. Additionally, as the Hydrology term, all approved positions that are still vacant Division moves to expand and modernize 74 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 29 Human resource and skills gaps Total Gap approved Existing (+/- from Office/division positions positions existing) Comments/Skills Needed National Office at Thimphu Office director 3 3 0 n.a. Additional staff with skills in Information PCRD 10 8 2 technology, human resources, training officer, technicians would be advantageous Skills needed include Hydrologic forecasters, hydrologic analysis and support, HD 29 17 12 meteorologists/hydrologists, technicians. This could be addressed by training existing staff and filling approved positions. Skills needed include meteorologists, weather forecasters, synoptic meteorologists. This MD 36 16 20 could be addressed by training existing staff and filling approved but vacant positions. Division can be strengthened by adding Glacier scientists, snow hydrologists, and SGD 13 5 8 technicians by filling approved but vacant positions.. Meteorology/hydrology officer, Central Technical meteorological/hydrological technicians and Logistics Division 1 1 0 .(instrumentation). Here the number of (formerly Centre Store approved positions should be increased to and Repair Unit) address skill gaps. Subtotal 91 49 42 Regional offices Regional office, east 32 31 1 Regional office, west 43 44 -1 Regional office, central 26 20 6 Subtotal 101 95 6 Pool staff 3 4 -1 TOTAL DHMS 195 148 47 the hydrological network, hydrographers priority sectors/ or hotspot areas within the (hydrological technicians) will be required to country, there will likely be a need to enhance manage the automated network and make river the monitoring and observation system in those discharge measurements required for the river areas to address user needs. Further, in the forecasting process. It is recommended that process of hydrological forecast development, the hydrographers establish office space at the requirements for additional rainfall and water regional offices. level data may be identified. These systems can be enhanced after the ongoing development 12. Enhance the observation network partner–supported upgrading has been based on assessments of user needs completed. Based on analysis carried out in Table 30 is a summary of the DHMS’s existing this report, it was determined that there are and planned observation network infrastructure. numerous gaps in the DHMS observation Once the DHMS has assessed user needs in network. For instance, it does not undertake 75 Chapter 5 Recommendations and Road Map Table 30 DHMS observation network enhancement Additional to be based Infrastructure Existing Donor planned on analysis of user needs Hydromet observing and warning systems Automatic weather stations 11 601 12 ?3 TBD Automatic water level stations 16 39 ? 1 3 TBD Automatic full climate stations 0 0 TBD Climate stations (manual) 61 0 0 Automatic agromet stations 0 0 TBD Automatic fire weather stations 0 0 TBD Automatic groundwater stations 0 0 TBD Automatic water quality stations 0 0 TBD GLOF stations 6 0 TBD GLOF siren stations 17 4 2 TBD GLOF warning systems 1 2 2 TBD Other early warning systems 0 0 TBD Radiosonde 0 0 1 (estimate) Weather radar 0 0 1(estimate) 1 NAPA 2 Project. 2 JICA: pilot GLOF warning system along Mangde Chhu River upstream of Trongsa and Chamkhar Chhu River upstream of Bumthang will receive two AWLS. 3 HYCOS: not expected to be more than five stations. Note: A “?” in any field implies that this number is unknown at this time and will need to be determined through further analysis as a follow-up to this report. upper air observations. Also, there is no weather so. Establishing these offices is crucial because radar in Bhutan at present. The choice of they will allow the DHMS office in Thimphu equipment, technology, and placement of assets to perform operational and maintenance will need to be based on follow-up studies that activities on weather and water-level stations. rely upon a detailed assessment of weather- They will also allow for community outreach in related threats in damaging weather and flood- helping interpret weather and flood forecasts prone areas, analysis of user needs for data and and will serve as focal points in collecting data information, and close examination of data and on regional weather-related damage. Most station networks. In enhancing the observation important, the regional centers will manage network, however, attention should be given not communication between regional stakeholders just to user needs but also to costs of operating and the DHMS. This would include distributing and maintaining systems such as radiosondes, forecasts, explaining forecasts, collecting such that capital investments are sustainable over information on regional weather and water the long run. events, and forwarding this information to the DHMS. The regional centers will also provide a 13. Establish DHMS regional offices base for regional operations for other divisions In all NMHS organizations, including the within the DHMS. For instance, hydrographers DHMS, subnational offices are necessary to can be stationed at and operate from the regional support the activities being carried out in the centers and can support staff in other DHMS central offices. In Bhutan, these have not yet divisions. Regional DHMS offices should be been established, although there are plans to do fully operational—with adequate infrastructure, 76 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan computer and communication facilities, as data relevant for agromet services), design electricity, and staff resources. and installation of decision support systems, development of sector-specific products, and 14. Strengthen national-level dissemination to stakeholders and communities. organizational aspects Development of climate services in a few sectors As discussed, the DHMS is a relatively new will provide important lessons for expanding and organization. As such, its focus should be on scaling up such services to other sectors, which strengthening capacity at the national and can be done over the medium and long term. In subnational levels. In the short term, the focus developing its sector-specific climate services, should be on strengthening existing capacity and the DHMS could also consider putting in place a newer divisions such as the Snow and Glacier National Framework for Climate Services aligned Division and also not combining the weather with WMO’s Global Framework for Climate and hydrological forecasting offices, as suggested Services. in the approved DHMS organization structure. Over the long run, further analytic work and The key to providing a broad spectrum of consultation can be carried out to assess the best products to stakeholders in Bhutan is to institutional fit for the DHMS. automate the product generation to the extent possible. Examples of sector-driven products 15. Increase the O&M budget to keep may include zero to seven-day quantitative pace with modernization precipitation forecasts and a minimum/ An analysis of capital and current budget shows maximum temperature forecast for agriculture. that over 80 percent of the DHMS capital The concept of automatic data processing and budget comes from development partners, product development can be referred to as the including GoI. Moreover, RGoB budget allocated “data factory.” This type of product generation is for current costs for the DHMS are about the basis for service delivery to stakeholders in a USD550,000 per year. This is not enough if typical national hydrological and meteorological the DHMS improves its observation systems service.14 It is recommended that the data factory (such as upper air observations) and its glacier be developed as a joint activity between the monitoring and service delivery. As department DHMS, stakeholders, and a consultancy service modernizes, the current budget will need to that will guide the architecture of the data factory increase substantially to ensure that investments and build the process resulting in the generation in information monitoring and forecasting are of necessary products. sustainable. Figure 11 illustrates the flow of information of 16. Expand hydrometeorological and DHMS products from origination to the eventual climate services in additional sectors landing place (stakeholders). Development of the As part of the assessment of sector-specific user data factory will require assessing stakeholder needs in the short term, the demand for specific requirements, cataloging these requirements, data, information, and services will be identified. and building a suite of appropriate products Based on this, decision support systems and and decision support systems. Information climate services in one to two targeted priority gathered from the stakeholders would define not sectors such as agriculture, hydropower, and infrastructure should be developed in the short The concept of a data factory and the capacity 14 development required to provide these outputs are term. This will involve extensive engagement discussed in greater detail in Benichou n.d. Although with selected specific sector agencies, improved the concept is not new, the document describes the monitoring of data relevant to those sectors (such general architecture and path to capacity development. 77 Chapter 5 Recommendations and Road Map only the product but also the frequency of the of data that flow directly to the data factory product generation and the desired method of from the data store include satellite pictures, transferring the products to stakeholders. meteograms, and other products generated by regional and international centers. The flow of information illustrated in Figure 11 begins with data streaming in from the DHMS The data stream handed off to forecast divisions hydromet network and from regional and within the DHMS would be used to produce international meteorological centers. All of this forecasts and products, just as rainfall forecasts information would be placed in the DHMS data from the Meteorology Division are used to store. From there the information can flow in two produce flood and flash flood forecasts by general directions. Data used for meteorological the Hydrology Division. Products would and hydrological forecasts can flow to the be reviewed by DHMS staff before being forecast sections to be used in the preparation distributed to stakeholders of that sector. For of forecasts. The second direction is indicated instance, Agriculture Meteorology staff, under by the dashed line leading from the DHMS the Meteorology Division, would review all data store directly to the data factory. Examples products related to the agriculture sector. The Figure 11 Transforming data into products and services DHMS Data Store GTS DHMS Hydromet Data International Met Outside products Satellite RIMES Weather QPF Flood Forecast Special Global forecasts India Radar Agriculture DHMS Renewable products Product products Factory Hydro-power Civil aviation products products Transportation products 78 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Table 31 Road map and sequencing activities Sequencing of Activities in Number of Months 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 Short- to medium-term actions (1–2 years) Prepare strategic plans based on user                     needs Strengthen DHMS IT assets and                     infrastructure Focus on high-priority monitoring systems                     Improve weather and hydrological                     forecasting Pilot end-to-end early warning systems                     Develop training plan and staff training in                     key areas Develop a long-term program for                     monitoring Bhutan’s cryosphere Develop plan for regional collaboration                     Strengthen sector-specific                     hydrometeorological and climate services Medium-term actions (3–5 years) Prepare a policy and legal framework for                     DHMS operations Fill approved staff positions that are                     vacant Enhance the observation network based                     on assessments of user needs Establish DHMS regional offices                     Strengthen national-level organizational                     aspects Increase the O&M budget to keep pace                     with modernization Expand hydrometeorological and climate                     services in additional sectors skill set needed by the staff operating the data and evaluate how well it is succeeding on factory would be information technology, with meeting targets and indicators. The long-term a preferable background in meteorology and process of modernization will involve learning hydrology information. from the short- and medium-term investments and experiences, improving on existing services as the DHMS scales up its services. Long-term actions (five years and beyond) However, two factors are critical to enable As the DHMS modernizes its institutions, capacity, and sustain these activities over the long run: and services in a phased manner, it should monitor the availability of staff with relevant skills 79 Chapter 5 Recommendations and Road Map and training to effectively operate and deliver and maintenance of the hydromet system and services plus adequate budgetary resources not ensuring operability of future networks is vital just for capital investments but also for long- to modernization efforts. This effort needs to be term operation and maintenance. Currently, accepted with an expected increase in the O&M the DHMS is very much focused on developing costs of the observing networks and forecasting technical capacity and infrastructure to cater to systems, with clear benefits of disaster reduction modernization of hydromet services in order to and economic development. fulfill its mandate. At the same time, however, the DHMS is struggling with the budget allocation Recognizing the need to have budgetary from the government for maintenance of support for operation and maintenance of newly existing stations. Therefore, the whole process developed equipment and systems, it would of modernization of hydromet services in order be important for the DHMS to make national to build the capacity of the DHMS for service as well as local agencies aware of the direct as delivery should be in a gradual and phased well as spill-over benefits of modernization manner. of hydromet services to the priority sectors in Bhutan: hydropower, agriculture, disaster risk While the DHMS proposes to strengthen its management, tourism, aviation, construction capacity to improve weather, disaster-related industry, and transport. The DHMS should also early warning systems, and climate services, acquire the needed political support and will to it would be crucial for it to present the budget put in place the required policies and the legal required for maintenance of equipment on and regulatory framework that would create a yearly basis and to garner support from the enabling environment for strengthening the the Ministry of Finance to support its needs. department and service delivery. n Assessing the current expenditures on operation 80 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Annex 1: Stakeholders Consulted Name Title Organization Department of Public Accounts, Ministry Mr. Choiten Wangchuk Director General of Finance Department of Public Accounts, Ministry Ms. Chuni Dorji Program Officer of Finance Department of Hydro-Met Services, Mr. Karma Tsering Director Ministry of Economic Affairs (MoEA) Department of Hydro-Met Services, Mr.Karma Dupchu Chief, Hydrology Division MoEA Chief, Planning, Coordination & Department of Hydro-Met Services, Mr. Phuntsho Namgyal Research Division MoEA Department of Hydro-Met Services, Mr. Singye Dorji Chief, Meteorology Division MoEA Mr. Sonam Dorji Data Manager, Meteorology Division Department of Hydro-met Services Mr. Tayba Buddha Tamang Meteorologist Meteorology Division Department of Disaster Management, Mr. Sangay Dawa Program Officer Ministry of Home & Cultural Affairs (MoHCA) Department of Disaster Management, Mr. Jigme Chogyal Program Officer MoHCA Council for Renewable Natural Resources Mr. Lungten Norbu Specialist of Bhutan Council for Renewable Natural Resources Ms. Medon Yaganagi Dy. Chief Research Officer of Bhutan Council for Renewable Natural Resources Mr. Chencho Dukpa Chief of Bhutan Ms. Kinley Tshering Chief Horticulture Officer Department of Agriculture Mr. G.B. Chettri Specialist Department of Agriculture Information Management Section Mr. Namgay Dorji Department of Livestock Head Mr. Jigme Wangchuk Chief Department of Livestock Watershed Management Division, Ms. Kinley Dem Forest Ranger Department of Forests and Park Services Watershed Management Division, Ms. Kuenzang Om Agriculture Officer Department of Forests and Park Services Department of Agriculture and Marketing Mr. Dorji Rinchen Specialist Cooperative Mr. Thinley Namgay Chief, Climate Change Officer National Environment Commission Dy. Chief Program Coordinator, Mr. Wangchu Namgay Gross National Happiness Commission Development Cooperation Division Mr. Rinchen Wangdi Chief Program Coordinator Gross National Happiness Commission Ms. Miharu Furukawa Project Formulation Adviser, Japan International Cooperation Agency Mr. Yasuhiko Kato Chief Adviser Japan International Cooperation Agency Mr. Sonam Yangley Director General Department of Geology and Mines Mr. Dawchu Dukpa Chief Seismologist Department of Geology and Mines Chief, Preparedness and Mitigation Ms. Pelden Zangmo Department of Disaster Management Division 81 Annex 1 Name Title Organization Mr. Tshering Wangchuk Program Officer Department of Disaster Management Mr. Chencho Tshering Program Officer Department of Disaster Management Mr. Tshering Gyeltshen Office Chief Department of Forests and Park Services Ms. Pratigya Pradhan Head of Project Department Druk Green Power Corporation Mr. Karma Rapten Assistant Resident Representative United Nations Development Programme 82 Annex 2: Donor-Funded Activities15 Title Time Frame Description Budget UNDP-GEF – NAPA 2 Background Details This activity will support about a tenth of the monitoring stations needed in the country. The details of activities under the third component implemented by the DHMS are: This project has three components: XX Installation of 60 automatic weather stations (AWSs) XX Risk reduction from climate-induced floods for which the locations are identified—34 current and landslides—This component focuses Class C stations will be upgraded and 26 totally new on protecting economically significant cities ones from intense floods through on-ground XX Installation of 39 automatic water level stations concrete interventions. (AWLSs)—11 upgrades and 28 new XX Enhanced adaptive capacity at community XX Installation of six cable way stations for measuring Addressing the risk level—This component will be implemented the river discharge of climate-induced Three years in four selected districts to fund design disasters through XX Mass balancing station—1 starting in and construction of climate-resilient water USD4,410,000 enhanced national March 2014 Capacity development of the DHMS—broadly defined harvesting, storage, and distribution systems. XX and local capacity for effective actions in water resources, how to maintain the stations XX Enhanced national capacity for managing and operation; about 5 percent of total allocation of climate risks—This component will be funds implemented by the Department of Hydromet Services (DHMS) with a budget of XX Detailed study in Wangchhu (Paro, Thimphu, and USD4,410,000 to support improvements in Haa Chhu) focused on Thimphu Chhu, starting from meteorological network coverage as well as Lingzhi and ending at Bunakha or Chunzom—such as water monitoring stations. for flood forecasting, high flood and water availability in the river, trend of flow and volume change over seasons and years; analysis from data of 20 years till date will be used to make projections; early warning stations will also be installed for multihazards such as flash floods and glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) XX Off-site data backup security system in some offices 15 This table is based on best available information at the time of writing this report. Contents of this table will need to be updated as development partner activities evolve. 83 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan 84 Annex 2 Title Time Frame Description Budget UNDP-GEF – NAPA 2 Background Details JICA For both Mangde-chhu and Chamkhar-chhu, AWLS, AWS (approximate cost: Nu. 1,800,000 for each (USD30,000)), siren towers, control rooms with antenna to receive satellite data and loudspeakers will be installed; WIS (global telecommunication service message switching system) will be installed in the head office so that the DHMS will have free access to all World Meteorological Organization members’ climate The main purpose of the project is to: data XX Enhance capacity of the DHMS and related agencies on GLOF/ rainstorm flood risk Mangde Chhu—2 AWLS, 1 AWS, and 3 sirens assessment, development planning, disaster prevention, flood forecasting and warning Chamkhar—3 AWLS, 2 AWS, and 6 sirens as well as emergency information sharing AWLS indicated include precipitation, temperature, and Capacity among relevant agencies. Three years other weather sensors development of XX Develop early warning system for GLOF/ starting in GLOF and rainstorm October rainstorm in the pilot basins of Mangdechhu The flood zonation of Chamkhar will be updated and flood forecasting 2013 and Chamkharchhu. Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) and early warning XX Enhance emergency response capacity will also be carried out in the two pilot basins with the Department of Disaster Management (DDM) against GLOF/ rainstorm floods at central and local level in the pilot basins. The JICA project team has eight experts who will also help in the development of a data collection platform in the National Weather and Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (NWFFWC) and provide hands-on training on how to receive, analyze, and archive data; the JICA team will also set up instruments for communication within the basins and with the NWFFWC at the headquarters in Thimphu The project is also providing hands-on training as a part of capacity building to the DHMS as well as line agencies in both Bhutan and Japan. Title Time Frame Description Budget UNDP-GEF – NAPA 2 Background Details The Finnish Meteorological Institute XX Socioeconomic impact analysis of services provided by the DHMS ready by January 2014 XX Support to develop National Hydro-met Services Policy on how the DHMS should provide services—for example, whether to sell or give for free, how to charge fees is applicable; mandates of the DHMS; policy draft has not yet started; DHMS staff will have to work on this and it will be supported by the Finnish Meteorological Institute in terms of study 32 months Strengthening tours and technical review of draft starting in hydromet 480,000 euros September XX Data management in quality control system; develop Services in Bhutan 2013 standard operating procedures for quality control of data management and data processing and analysis for climate change studies; done by them XX Help develop communication strategy with public, DDM, media, etc., or it could be within the hydromet network in Bhutan, for everyday situation and also during emergencies XX Study tour and training in seasonal forecasting and instrumentation in Finland 85 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan Bibliography Bibliography International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. Alert Users Group. 2011. “Benefits of Using ALERT Iwata, S. 2010. “Glaciers of Bhutan. An Overview.” Technology.” Available at http://www.alertsystems.org. Washington, DC: U.S. Geological Survey Bajracharya, S. R., and P. K. Mool 2009. “Glaciers, Professional Paper 1386–F–7. Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). Mount Everest Region, Nepal.” Annals of Glaciology 2013. Unpublished Project Document. 50 (53): 81–86. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. 2010. “Japan’s Bajracharya, S. R., S. B. Maharjan, and F. Shrestha. Support to SAARC (Priority Areas and Policies).” 2014. “The Status and Decadal Change of Glaciers PowerPoint available at: http://www.mofa.go.jp/ in Bhutan from the 1980s to 2010 Based on Satellite region/asia-paci/saarc. Data.” Annals of Glaciology 55 (66): 159. Mool, P. K., D. Wangda, S. R. Bajracharya, K. Benichou, P. n.d. “Capacity Development for Kuzang, D. R. Gurung, and S. P. Joshi. 2001. Investment and Policy Decision-Makers.” Meteo “Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial France International Brochure. Available at http:// Lake Outburst Floods: Monitoring and Early www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/ documents/ Warning Systems in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan Benichou.pdf. Region, Bhutan.” Kathmandu: International Centre DHMS (Department of Hydromet Services). 2014. for Integrated Mountain Development with United “Presentation of the Department of Hydro-met Nations Environment Programme/Regional Resource Services.” PowerPoint by Phunsto Namgyal. Thimphu, Centre for Asia and the Pacific. Bhutan. Parliament of Bhutan. 2013. “Disaster Management Earth Systems Research Laboratory. 2009. “Rapid Act of Bhutan.” Available at http://www.un-spider. Refresh/Rapid Update Cycle (RR/RUC) Technical org/about-us/news/en/6535/2013-03-06t134000/ Review.” available at http://ruc.noaa.gov/pdf/RR-RUC- bhutan-first-disaster-management-bill-passed. TR_11_3_2009.pdf. RGoB (Royal Government of Bhutan). 2008. “Site European Center for Medium-Range Weather Assessment Report for the Installation for the GLOF Forecasts. 2010. “Products Made Available to NMHSs Early Warning System in the Punakha-Wangdue of WMO Members.” Available at http://old.ecmwf. Valley. Under Component-II of the Project Reducing int/products/additional. Climate Change-Induced Risks and Vulnerabilities from Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Punakha- Feldhake, G. S. n.d. “Remote Sensing Data Products: Wangdu and Chamkhar Valleys.” Thimphu, Bhutan: Uses and Availability. National Aeronautics and Department of Hydromet Services, Department of Space Administration (NASA).” PowerPoint available Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. at https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-t/oth/06/0F/ T060F00601E0041PDFE.pdf. ———. 2012a. Statistical Yearbook of Bhutan 2012. Thimphu, Bhutan: National Statistics Bureau. Freebairn, J., and J. Zillman. 2002. “Economic Benefits of Meteorological Services.” Meteorological ———. 2012b. Bhutan Poverty Analysis 2012. Applications 9 (1): 33–44. Thimphu, Bhutan. Hewitt, C., S. Mason, and D. Walland. 2012. ———. 2013a. Water Resources Management “Commentary: The Global Framework for Climate Plan and Update of the Power System Master Plan. Services.” Nature Climate Change 2 (12): 831–32. Thimphu, Bhutan: Ministry of Trade and Industry, Department of Energy. Innovative Hydrology. 2014. Strengthening Hydromet System in Bhutan. Consultant Report. ———. 2013b. Statistical Yearbook of Bhutan 2013. Thimphu, Bhutan: National Statistics Bureau. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, ———. 2013c. Eleventh Five Year Plan Document. and Vulnerability. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge Thimphu, Bhutan: Gross National Happiness University Press. Commission. Ives, J. D. , R. B. Shrestha, and P. K. Mool. 2010. ———. 2013d. Eleventh Five Year Plan Program Formation of Glacial Lakes in the Hindi Kush- Profile. Thimphu, Bhutan: Gross National Happiness Himalays and GLOF Risk Assessment. Kathmandu: Commission. 86 Modernizing Weather, Water and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan ———. 2013e. Monsoon Outlook 2013. Operational Hydrology. Volume I: Hydrology, Fourth Seasonal Forecast Monsoon in Bhutan 2013 edition, ed. I. F. Drãghici, G. V. Necco, R. W. Riddaway, (June to September). Thimphu, Bhutan: Ministry J. T. Snow, C. Billard, and L. A. Ogallo. Geneva. of Economic Affairs, Department of Hydro-Met ———. 2006a. Guidelines on the Role, Operation Services. and Management of National Hydrological Services. ———. 2013f. Labour Force Survey Report. Operational Hydrology Report No. 49. Geneva. Thimphu, Bhutan: Ministry of Labour and Human ———. 2006b. Technical Regulations. Basic Resources. Documents No. 2. Volume III: Hydrology. Report ———. 2014. Department of Hydro-Met Services WMO No. 49. Geneva. Departments Objectives, Vision, and Mission, ———. 2007. Prospectus for the Implementation and Organogram. Thimphu, Bhutan: Ministry of of a Flash Flood Guidance System with Global Economic Affairs. Coverage. Joint Proposal by WMO Commission Rupper, S., J. M. Schaefer, L. K. Burgener, L. for Hydrology and WMO Commission for Basic S. Koenig, K. Tsering, and E. R. Cook. 2012. Systems. Geneva. “Sensitivity and Response of Bhutanese Glaciers ———. 2008. Guide to Hydrological Practices, to Atmospheric Warming,” Geophysical Research Volume 1. Hydrology; From Measurement to Letters 39 (19). Hydrological Information, Sixth edition. Report Sharif, O. H., D. Yates, R. Roberts, and C. Mueller. WMO No. 168. Geneva. 2005. “The Use of an Automated Nowcasting ———. 2009a. World Meteorological Organization System to Forecast Flash Floods in an Urban Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Term Watershed,” Journal of Hydrometeorology 7 (1): Forecasting. Program Booklet. Geneva. 190–202. ———. 2009b. Guide to Hydrological Practices, South Asian Climate Outlook Forum. 2014. Volume 2. Management of Water Resources and “Consensus Statement.” Fifth Session (SASCOF-5). Application of Hydrological Practices, Sixth edition. Pune, India. 14–23 April. Report WMO No. 168. Geneva. United Nations Economic and Social Commission ———. 2009c. Guidelines for the Education for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the United and Training of Personnel in Meteorology and Nations International Strategy for Disaster Operational Hydrology. Volume I. Supplement Reduction (ISDR). 2010. The Asia Pacific Disaster 2: Guidelines for Curricula in Agricultural Report, 2010: Protecting Development Gains: Meteorology. Report WMO No. 258. Geneva. Reducing Disaster Vulnerability and Building Resilience in Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok, ———. 2009d. Manual on the Global Thailand: United Nations International Strategy for Telecommunication System. Volume 1. (Annex III Disaster Reduction Regional Office. to WMO Technical Regulations). Global Aspects. Report WMO No. 386. Geneva. United Nations Environment Programme and World Glacier Monitoring Service. 2008. Global Glacier ———. 2009e. Global Framework for Climate Changes: Facts and Figures. Geneva. Services. Available at https://www.wmo.int/pages/ governance/ec/global-framework-for-climate- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. services_en.html. 2010. Flash Flood Early Warning System Reference Guide Appendix C: ALERT and IFLOWS System ———. 2010a. WMO Fact-Finding Mission to Descriptions. Prepared by Christopher D. Hill Bhutan. Mission Report. Geneva. and Firoz Verjee for the National Oceanic and ———. 2010b. Manual on Stream Gauging. Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Volume 1: Fieldwork. Report WMO No. 1044. Commerce. Boulder, CO. 2010. Geneva. WMO (World Meteorological Organization). n.d. ———. 2011a. Public Weather Services (PWS) “WMO Strategy for Service Delivery.” Available Nowcasting. Available at http://www.wmo.int/ at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/ pages/prog/amp/pwsp/Nowcasting.htm. documents/SDS.pdf. ———. 2011b. Technical Regulations. Basic ———. 2003. Guidelines for the Education Documents No. 2. Volume IV; Quality Management. and Training of Personnel in Meteorology and Report WMO No. 49. Geneva. 87 Bibliography ———. 2012a. Guide to Meteorological or Hydrometeorological Services (NMS). Report Instruments and Methods of Observation. 2008 WMO No. 1003. Geneva. edition, updated in 2010. Report WMO No. 8. World Bank, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. and the U.S. National Weather Service. 2013. ———. 2012b. General Meteorological Standards A Workshop to Assist in: Sustaining National and Recommended Practices Technical Regulations. Meteorological Services Strengthening WMO Basic Documents No. 2. Volume 1. 2011 edition, Regional and Global Centres, 18–20 June. Final updated in 2012. Report WMO No. 49. Geneva. Report. Geneva. ———. 2014a. Sample Template for NMS Strategic World Wildlife Fund. 2011. The Wetlands Sky High: Plan. Available at https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/ Mapping Wetlands in Bhutan. Thimphu, Bhutan: dra/eguides/index.php/en/sample-template-for- WWF Program Office. nms-strategic-plan. ———. 2014b. Guidelines on the Role, Operation and Management of the National Meteorological 88 Department of Hydro Met Services Disaster Risk Management and Climate Ministry of Economic Affairs Change Unit-South Asia Thimphu, Bhutan GSURR P.O. Box No: 207 The World Bank PABX: +975 2 325151 1818 H Street, NW Tele Fax: +975 2 327202 Washington DC 20433 www.hydromet.gov.bt www.worldbank.org