88111 v.1 March 27, 2009 The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2009 Overview Indicators suggest global GDP to decline again in first quarter of 2009. Given the synchronous nature of the downturn the nexus of decline in business investment, exports and factory output has intensified into the first months of 2009, worldwide. Fixed investment—hit by diminishing access to credit (among other factors), dropped 22% in the United States in the final quarter of 2008 (saar); 20% in Japan and 10% in Europe. Investment fell (in tandem with GDP) in 15 of 16 developing countries for which quarterly NIA data is available. Investment in Malaysia plunged 40% (saar), Brazil (34%), Peru (33%), and Poland (13%). Federal Reserve’s “quantitative easing” ... sustaining longest spurs quick fall in long rates equity rally since end-2008 U.S. ten-year T-note, 30-year fixed- and ARM mortgage rates, percent Indexes: 100 on September 15, 2008 [Lehman Brothers] 3.3 6.5 105 Variable ARM rate [right] 100 3.0 95 MSCI-Emerging 6.0 Markets 90 DJIA USA 2.8 85 Ten-year note [left] 5.5 80 2.5 75 30-year fixed m ortgage [right] 70 5.0 2.3 65 60 CAC- France Topix Japan 2.0 4.5 55 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Mar-09 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream. Source: Thomson/Datastream. Trade is falling still more sharply, causing manufacturers to put the brakes on output. Japan’s exports are down 65% as of February (saar), with production declining 55% in January. Exports and production across the Asian NIEs have dropped in double digits. East Asia, Germany and the United States (producers of capital goods) have been particularly hit hard. A shift of trade’s contribution to GDP to steep negative is a key factor complementing financial difficulties to affect GDP across a large number of countries in the current quarter. U.S. plans for financial support and regulation were announced (or first implemented) by Treasury and the Fed in the last week, generally well received by markets, and helping to extend equity rallies. Treasury’s plan to dispose of $1 trillion in toxic assets in a joint public-private initiative was welcomed. This was quickly followed by purchase of $7.5 billion in Treasuries, Agency- and mortgage backed securities by the Fed, as it kicked-off a more aggressive ‘quantitative easing’ approach. And Secretary Geithner’s testimony for the House Financial Services Committee raised the issue of an immediate requirement for overhaul of the U.S. financial system. His testimony read “To address this will require comprehensive reform, not modest repair at the margin, but new rules of the game” (ital added). Capital flows fall in February. Inflows to emerging markets dropped 17% to $15bn in February, as bond issuance and bank lending faltered. Bonds dropped from $9bn to $6bn in the month; still Mexico ($1.5bn) and Indonesia ($3bn) placed issues despite weak market conditions. Only $19bn in syndicated loans registered in the first months of the year, the lowest since 1995. This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Hans Timmer, and comprising Mick Riordan (G-3 countries, foreign exchange, overall edits), John Baffes (trade), Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savescu (production) and Gauresh Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 2 Global Indicators Global Indicators (Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified) 2007 2008 2009f 2010f GDP volume: World 3.8 1.9 0.9 3.0 Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 4.7 3.1 1.9 4.2 High-income countries 2.6 0.8 -0.1 2.0 Developing countries 8.2 5.8 4.4 6.0 Industrial production: World 4.4 0.7 ... ... High-income countries 2.4 -1.7 ... ... Developing countries 9.8 6.3 ... ... Export volume (GNFS): World 7.6 4.1 -2.1 6.0 High-income countries 6.4 2.9 -3.7 5.1 Developing countries 10.9 7.2 2.1 8.1 Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 5.5 7.5 1.9 1.0 Oil ($/bbl) 71.1 97.0 47.2 47.8 52.7 Non-oil commodities 17.1 21.0 -32.0 -30 -1.6 Nominal interest rates: $LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.50 3.20 1.60 2.3 LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.50 4.80 2.20 2.30 2.8 Financial flows FDI ($billion) 532 480 ... ... Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 652 370 197 252 ... Equity placement ($bn) 194 48 1 25 ... Bond financing ($bn) 146 65 88 104 ... Lending ($bn) 312 257 109 122 ... Source: DECPG, March 2009. Estimates and projections based on GEP-2009, released 12-9-2008. Note(s): a. Gross inflows 2009 based on year-to-date figures. Figures in bold represent changes this month. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 3 United States U.S. GDP revised to substantial 6.2% decline in fourth quarter 2008 GDP declines 6.2%. Inclusion of additional data growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points increased the pace of decline in U.S. GDP from 6 Stocks 3.8% to 6.2% (saar) for the final quarter of 2008, with 4 2.8 Government outturns for components of demand, trade and Consumption Investment inventories moving adversely. The falloff is the 2 Net Exports -0 .5 deepest recorded since recession in 1982. Personal 0 spending dropped a steep 4.3% from a decline of -2 -3 .8 3.5% estimated earlier, the worst in 30 years. -4 Business investment fell more than at first thought -6.2 -6 (21.3%); and U.S. exports contracted at a sharp 23.6% pace. This news, together with data for the -8 Q 2-20 08 Q 3-2 008 Q 4-20 08 F Q4 -20 08 R first months of 2009 is not encouraging for a pickup Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations. in the economy during the first half of the year. Sharp declines in production and sales are leading Continued employment losses affecting to record job losses and lower household spending. incomes and retail spending retail sales growth (saar) [L]; change in employment (3mma) [R] 400 Job losses hit retail hard. Employment losses 15 averaged 650,000 in each of the four months 10 Retail sales [L] 200 through February; since the “official” onset of 5 recession in December 2007 some 4.4 million jobs 0 0 have been lost. Retail sales have been hurt by the -5 rise in unemployment and decrease in incomes that Change in -200 -10 employm ent [R] coincide. Sales fell sharply on an annualized basis to -15 -400 decline of 26% through December (saar); but with -20 extended deep discounts on post-holiday stocks, a -600 -25 modest pickup in turnover emerged in the first -30 -800 months of 2009. Such development is welcome but Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 unlikely to be sustained, as job- and income losses Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor. continue to mount. Virtual collapse in manufacturing and A vicious circle. Job losses are now sweeping exports pressures growth further across a wider segment of the economy, to include durable goods orders, export volumes and mfgr output, ch% saar professional services and retail, complementing the 10 40 Exports [right] long slide in factory and construction jobs. But trade 5 30 Production [left] and related employment in manufacturing are now 20 0 highly vulnerable. As in Europe and Japan, U.S. 10 exports and production are in virtual collapse as -5 0 trade partners succumb to recession. GDP will -10 -10 continue to be pressured by these developments, -20 highlighting the substantial global ties at the fore in -15 -30 this recession. As of February, U.S. durable goods -20 -40 Orders [right] orders and export volumes plunged 45% (saar), with -25 -50 factory production off more-than 20%. Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Source: Federal Reserve, Department of Commerce. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 4 Japan Japan’s trade and production falling Achilles heel. During the final quarter of 2008, from a veritable “cliff” through February trade exacted a monumental toll on Japan’s growth, export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar as exports dropped an unprecedented 45% (saar) 10 60 while imports gained 12.5%--subtracting 5 full points 0 40 from growth, leaving GDP down 12.1% for the -10 20 quarter. This trend has continued and intensified IP [Left] -20 0 through February 2009 as—in a situation similar to that in the United States and Europe—demand in -30 -20 key trade partners declines rapidly as recession hits -40 -40 home. Without respite soon, another double-digit -50 Export volume [R] -60 falloff in Japan’s GDP could materialize for the first quarter of 2009. During February, export volumes fell -60 -80 5%, on the heels of a record 12% monthly falloff in Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office. January; which together carried exports down by an 65% in the three-months to February (saar); following trade closely, production dropped by an United States and Asia account for the incredible 56% on the same measure in January. bulk of the decline in Japan’s exports contributions to growth in percentage points Declines in shipments to U.S. and Asia. 15 The United States remains Japan’s principle market, 12 with a 20% share of exports in 2008; followed by 9 6 China (15%), the European Union (15%) and the 3 many economies comprising ‘Asia excluding China’ 0 (33%). Over the course of 2008, Japan’s exports to -3 each of these groups deteriorated quite sharply— -6 first to the United States, next the EU, and by the -9 fourth quarter of the year, only the Middle East and -12 USA EU Asia MENA Other Total smaller partners continued to be purchasers of -15 Japanese goods. The stiffest declines in shipments Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Source: National Sources through Thomson/Datastream. had been to the United States (27%), Europe (23%) and other Asia (12%), leading the former to contribute 5.5 points to the export decline, the EU Japan’s liquidity inches higher 3.5 points and other Asia 3.8 points. A quick growth of M-0, M1 and ‘L’, ch%, y/y turnaround in these markets seems unlikely. 7 ‘L’ (Broad money) 6 QE gets underway. The Bank of Japan stated at 5 mid-March that it would purchase up to $10 billion in 4 subordinated loans from commercial banks in an M-1 3 effort to spur lending and ease the recession—this 2 as part of a broader plan of quantitative easing to 1 M-0 increase liquidity. The plan is likely to encompass 0 continued direct BOJ purchases of commercial -1 -2 paper and corporate bonds, with the further 01 /31/2007 0 7/31/2007 01/31/2008 07/31 /2008 01 /30/2009 possibility of buying exchange –traded funds, to help Source: Bank of Japan. shore up equity markets which had declined by some 18% over 2009 to date. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 5 Euro Area GDP in Euro Area falls sharply on GDP contracts on trade and investment. investment and exports Following February’s “flash” estimate, details were growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points provided by Eurostat to fill-out the story underlying 4 2.8 the large 5.7% decline in Euro Area GDP in the final quarter of 2008 (saar)—the worst such contraction in 2 recent memory. A precipitous falloff in net trade 0 -1 .0 -1 .0 played the biggest role, subtracting 3 points from -2 growth; exports plummeted 26%, imports 20%, as recession increasingly came to affect Europe’s -4 Stocks Consumption -5.7 export markets. As exports and production fell Government -6 Investment sharply, investment was scaled-back by 10.5%, as Net Exports prospective demand waned and the cost of capital -8 Q 1-20 08 Q 2-2 008 Q 3-2 008 Q4 -200 8 skyrocketed. And European households retrenched, Source: EUROSTAT and DECPG calculations. with spending down 3.4%. These figures were sufficient to prompt widespread downgrading of Trade is sapping the German economy prospects for 2009, and recent data have continued of any forward momentum much in this line. 30 export orders and factory output, ch% saar Trade continues to undercut growth. 20 IP Manufacturing Germany’s GDP release of February 25th took 10 markets aback, as an 8.1% contraction (saar) had 0 not been witnessed in 22 years. Exports declined -10 26% in the quarter, complemented by a 13% falloff in -20 imports (saar), such that net exports subtracted 7.5 -30 -40 points of growth. This trend is continuing and -50 accelerating. Export orders dropped 11.5% in -60 January alone (m/m) carrying the momentum of Export orders -70 orders to an extraordinary decline of 63% in the Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 month (saar); and exports have followed in step, off Source: EUROSTAT through Thomson/Datastream. 47%. Against this background, factory production is in a 40% freefall, and the toll in jobs, incomes and European labor markets begin to domestic spending is mounting. weaken, sentiment falls quickly growth in the number of EA unemployed [left] EC consumer sentiment [right] Labor markets weaken. European payrolls 15 0 contracted by the most on record during the fourth 10 -5 quarter of 2009. Employment in the Euro Area -10 contracted 0.3% the largest since records began to 5 -15 be kept in 1955. And January’s toll was less 0 encouraging, with the number of unemployed growth in the number -20 of unemployed (y/y), % [left] increasing to 12.7 million pushing the unemployment -5 -25 rate to 8.2% from 8.1% in December. Growth of the -10 -30 dole queue has accelerated to a 15% year-on-year Euro Area consumer sentiment [right] pace. -15 -35 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Source: EUROSTAT and European Commission. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 6 Industrial Production Manufacturing output collapses across high-income OECD countries Factory output falls across OECD. manufactures output, ch% (3m/3m saar) Manufacturing output has effectively collapsed 15 across high-income countries over the fourth quarter 10 of 2008 and into the first months of 2009. This has 5 fueled expectations that the OECD is in for a deeper- 0 than-earlier anticipated recession. In Japan, factory -5 output plunged 56.5% in the three months through Eurozon e -10 January 2009 (saar), the worst performance since the early 1990s, as external demand for capital -15 Japan USA goods and autos tanked. Performance in the Euro -20 -56.5% Area and the United States was dismal, with -25 momentum at negative 21% for the former in Ja n-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan -0 8 May-08 Sep -08 Jan-09 January, and 22.6% for the latter during February. Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. Factory orders are experiencing almost a freefall (down 65% in Japan (saar)) and point to continuation Industrial output decline of substantial output declines in coming months. intensifies in Europe 10 industrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) Declines intensify in Europe. The sharp decline in demand for manufactured goods (both 0 within the Euro Zone, and increasingly, from Germany overseas) has translated into substantial declines in -10 production across the member states, especially in Italy countries specialized in capital goods, high-tech-, France -20 and autos and that are highly reliant on export markets. For example German factory output fell -30 7.5% in January from the previous month, the Spain sharpest decline since reunification, after having -40 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 contracted a massive 50% during the fourth quarter (saar). France experienced the largest IP fall on Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. record in January, down 13.8% (y/y) as output Industrial output collapses in ECA as dropped 3.1% on the month. Continued declines in trade partners fall deeper into recession production are likely as recession intensifies during industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar) 2009’s first quarter. 25.0 12.5 ECA economies battered. Industrial output contracted sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 in a 0.0 number of Central and Eastern European countries, Europe and Central Asia hit hard by plummeting demand from Western -12.5 Europe. ECA output fell a large 30% (saar) during -25.0 Turkey the quarter. Growth momentum is expected to Cz ech Republic remain in negative territory for the first quarter of -37.5 Hungary 2009 as weaker external and domestic demand adds -50.0 to downward pressure on factory output. Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 7 International Trade Growth of world trade in dollars World trade continues to contract. World Q4-2008 / Q-4 2007 (%) trade (nominal exports in dollars) declined 6.1% in export values: ch% yr/yr the fourth quarter of 2008 contrasted with year- 0 -2 earlier levels, led by high-income OECD countries. -4 Notably, Japan’s exports declined 14%, followed by -6 the Euro Area (12.8%). U.S. exports fell by less (4%) -8 in part due to the appreciation of the dollar. Within -1 0 Europe, countries worst hit have been Finland -1 2 (19.7%), France (15.2%), Spain (15.5%), and -1 4 Germany (14.7%). Exports from developing -1 6 countries contracted only 2.4% in the quarter, as World USA Japan Euro Area Developing they were underpinned by China where exports countries remained in positive territory. But trade performance Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. has worsened for both industrial and developing countries during the first months of 2009. For U.S. current balance improves example, China’s February exports dropped some 27% from February 2008 levels. in fourth quarter on falloff in goods imports (notably oil) 100 U.S. current account balance improves. A 50 sharp $40 billion falloff in the U.S. deficit on oil trade Income Services during the fourth quarter, reflecting lower oil prices 0 and 4-5% declines in domestic consumption, was Non-oil -50 BOT the key to an improved U.S. position for the quarter -100 and for 2008 as a whole. The shortfall on current Oil balance account narrowed as a share of GDP from 5% in the -150 third quarter to 3.7%. And for 2008 as a whole, the Transfers -200 change in position is more pronounced, shifting by -250 $60 billion from deficit of $730 billion in 2007 (or Q4-2007 Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 5.3% of GDP) to red ink of $672 billion (4.7%). Given Current account Source: Department of Commerce. the depth of global recession and continued contraction of world trade in general the U.S. deficit on external accounts should show additional World trade has averaged 10% growth improvement—in line, hopefully, with a net increase per annum over the last 2 decades in household savings. export values (USD), ch% 25 World trade now in virtual in free fall. World 20 trade as measured by nominal exports is experiencing perhaps, the sharpest decline in 15 modern history. Global trade declined more than 10 14% in December 2008 from a year ago, following another decline of 12% a month earlier. During the 5 past two decades, world trade has increased at an 0 average 10% per year. Yet, most of the growth took place during the past five years when trade more -5 than doubled from $6.1 to $13.3 trillion. 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: National Agencies through Haver Analytics. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 8 Commodity Prices OECD oil stocks remain high Oil prices firm on supply cuts. Crude oil prices (WB average) continue to trade in a narrow $/b bl million bbl range, averaging $43.90/bbl over the year to date. 140 2,800 Recently prices have been trending higher on OPEC 120 OECD stocks [R] 2,700 production cuts. U.S. inventories remain high but 100 stocks are now easing as OPEC removes surplus oil 80 2,600 from the market. With steep recession, global oil 60 demand will fall 3% in Q1-09 (y/y) and drop by 2,500 Oil price [L] 1.5mb/d (2%) for 2009. Non-OPEC supply continues 40 2,400 to be scaled back due to lower capital outlays and 20 technical problems—the latest, a downgrade of 0 2,300 0.3mb/d to Azerbaijan’s production linked to gas Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 leaks and power problems last fall. Little growth is Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. expected in non-OPEC supplies in 2009. OPEC oil production drops sharply No OPEC output cuts. OPEC met March 15th and agreed to leave quotas unchanged, given “the mb/d worst global recession in decades.” OPEC 32 Including Iraq acknowledged the recession’s sharp impact on world oil demand, but also welcomed initial signs of 30 reversal in crude oil stocks. The group had agreed to 28 a combined 4.2mb/d quota reduction in September, OPEC-11 and says it has achieved 79% of that target. OPEC 26 will concentrate on full quota compliance, as reductions in production have been unbalanced. 24 Saudi Arabia produced slightly below target in 22 February, while all other members were above. The Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 largest over-producer was Iran, above by more-than Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. 0.3mb/d. OPEC meets next on May 28th. Forward curve begins to flatten. The forward WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX price curve for WTI crude oil futures has begun to $/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2014* on flatten, as crude inventories start to fall—particularly 80 select dates in 2009 at Cushing Oklahoma, the physical delivery point for NYMEX-WTI. Inventories had approached 70 operational limits at Cushing, pushing the forward Jan 15 Mar 16 curve into steep ‘contango’ (nearby prices below 60 futures prices), contributing to some 60 million 50 barrels being stored in tankers at sea. Some of this Feb 18 oil has started to move ashore as contango narrows, 40 but large surplus remains. The improving U.S. balance has also helped push the price of WTI 30 above Brent in recent days, restoring the typical Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 relationship between the crudes. Source: NYMEX. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 9 Ag prices fall in February; grains stronger Food prices slip in February on in March. Agriculture prices fell 0.8% in February (2000=100) weak demand with declines across most commodities, due to 350 weaker global demand, the stronger dollar and improved supply prospects. A key exception was Grains 300 sugar, which increased 5% on expectations that Fats & Oils India will become a net importer. Wheat prices 250 Beverages dropped 6% on large increases expected for global production, while maize and sorghum prices fell on 200 reduced demand for food, feed and bio-fuels. Wheat 150 and corn prices, however, leapt 8% in March on Other Food concerns of the effects of drought on the U.S. winter 100 wheat crop; and as corn plantings in the United Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 States are expected to fall this year in favor of Source: DECPG Commodities Group. soybeans. Cotton acreage is also likely to decline, but prices are falling on weak demand. Copper prices rise on Chinese Metals prices rise on stocking in China. $/ton restocking ‘000 tons Copper prices have increased 27% this year, 9,000 550 jumping of late due to a sudden draw in LME 500 inventories headed for China. Total Chinese copper 8,000 450 imports in February surged 45% (y/y) on strategic 7,000 400 stocking by the State Reserves Bureau (SRB). 6,000 350 Copper prices have also been supported by Copper price 300 production cutbacks and a sharp fall in scrap; but 5,000 250 LME stocks consumption remains weak—particularly outside 4,000 200 China, where demand is likely to contract 15% in 150 3,000 2009. The SRB has also been stocking zinc and 100 aluminum, but these purchases are largely geared to 2,000 50 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 support domestic metals producers. While zinc Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group. prices are up 10% this year, aluminum prices are down 10% with the market chronically oversupplied. Freight rates revive on stronger Baltic Dry Index rebounds. The Baltic Dry $/ton trans-PAC bulk shipments Index—charter rates for dry bulk vessels on trans- 12,000 Pacific routes—jumped back to near 2,300, the highest level since October, and more- than triple the 10,000 recently depressed levels caused by plunging 8,000 Baltic dry freight index demand and financial constraints. The increase is 6,000 due to rising bulk shipments to China, notably iron ore from Brazil, India and Australia, and surging 4,000 thermal and coking coal imports from Australia. 2,000 Increased shipments of grains from Latin America have also emerged of late. Vessel supply remains 0 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 tight, as earlier many ships had been taken off market due to shipping company bankruptcy fears; Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group. and expansion of new capacity is being delayed. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 10 International Finance Lending falters in early 2009 as Syndicated lending falters. Capital flows to banks deleverage and build capital emerging markets fell to $15 billion in February from $18 billion in the preceding month as bond issuance G r o s s c a p i ta l f l ow s t o e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s and bank lending faltered. Bonds dropped from $9 $ b i lli o n 2007 20 0 8 2009 billion to $6 billion in the month, with sovereigns Q 1 T o ta l Ja n Fe b Q1 T o ta l Jan Feb dominating activity. Mexico ($1.5bn) and Indonesia T o ta l 164 65 2 30 33 103 370 18 15 ($3bn) placed global bonds despite weak market B o n ds 58 14 6 7 2 12 65 9 6 B a n ks 79 31 2 17 28 71 257 10 9 conditions. Corporate issues thus far in 2009 have E q u ity 26 19 4 6 3 20 48 0 0 been limited to high-grade borrowers, implying virtual L a t . A m e ri c a 38 15 6 9 4 19 80 9 10 shut-down for higher-risk firms. Only $19 billion in B o n ds 20 45 4 0 5 20 5 3 E . E u ro p e 82 24 7 5 16 36 155 6 1 syndicated loans have been raised during the first B o n ds 28 64 1 2 4 35 2 0 A s ia 27 18 8 14 9 38 92 3 3 months of the year, the lowest since 1995. B o n ds 8 23 3 0 3 7 2 3 Restrained supply from western banks accounts for O t h er s 16 61 2 3 11 43 0 0 the bulk of the decline in lending to emerging Source: DECPG Fin ance Team. markets. And equity remains severely depressed with a single $5 million IPO deal in the month. EM equities outperform mature markets over 2009 to date Stocks rally in March. Following retrenchment return by period over January and February, global equities bounced 12 back at mid-March, led by financials, as investor 9 6 Emerging markets sentiment improved amid a renewal of optimism on 3 Mature m arkets the economic outlook (temporary?!) Emerging 0 market (EM) stocks fared better in March, posting an -3 11% gain contrasted with a 5% advance in mature -6 markets. Returns have posted similar patterns, with -9 emerging markets dropping 7.1% compared with a -12 17.8% decline for developed markets. This is indeed -15 -18 * through March 13 a surprising development, as in times of financial January February March * Year to date * stress investors tend to repatriate funds from EM Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream assets in a broader flight to safety. Sovereigns viewed with heightened risk. Sovereign credit risk has increased The sharp increase in EM sovereign credit default sharply across emerging markets swaps (CDS) starting in October 2008, reflects Sovereign CDS spreads in basis points growing investor concern of the risk that Mexico governments default on external debt. The widening Malaysia Thailand of spreads was much more pronounced in select Brazil countries, including Argentina, Ukraine, Kazakhstan Colombia South Africa and Turkey, countries with high external financing Bulgaria requirements. For example, Ukraine’s five-year CDS Russia Philippines spread increased from 700 basis points last Turkey September to over 4,500 bps currently (a cost of Indonesia Kazakstan more-than $4.5 million to insure $10 million of debt Argentina // 3,680 over five years). Demand for protection to hedge Ukraine // 4,600 country risk amidst the global downturn has also 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 driven CDS spreads higher for many countries. Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 11 Currencies Dollar continues gains against euro Dollar slips on Fed QE announcement. The and yen until FOMC of March 18 dollar continued to ramp higher against euro and yen USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] over the course of February and into early March, Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 1.230 picking up 9.2% vis-à-vis the yen and 1.1% against 1.270 110 the euro. This appears due to foreign funds seeking 1.310 106 the haven of Treasury notes (after a sharp falloff in 1.350 foreign net inflows during January, see below). But in 102 1.390 the wake of the March 18 FOMC meeting, following 1.430 the Fed’s announcement of massive ($1 trillion plus) 98 1.470 USD/Euro (inverse) planned purchases of Treasury and Agency notes, 1.510 94 as well as mortgage-backed securities from private 1.550 90 holders, the dollar lost traction as the market 1.590 yen/USD envisioned lower long-term rates ahead. Since the 1.630 86 FOMC meeting the euro gained 4.5% to stand at Source: Thomson/Datastream. $1.3622 on March 23; the yen a more moderate rise to ¥96.95. Net foreign purchases of U.S. assets turn to outflow as of the fourth quarter Foreigners large net sellers. Treasury data net foreign purchases USD billions show that the U.S. external financing position was 280 240 precariously balanced at “zero” during the third 200 quarter of 2008, as foundations for Freddie and 160 Fannie (GSEs) became less stable, and heightened 120 80 risk on corporate bonds yielded net outflow on these 40 assets of some $60 billion and $25 billion 0 respectively. After the Lehman debacle hit markets -40 -80 in October, foreigners turned large net sellers of the -120 GSEs, reduced net purchases of Treasuries, bonds Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Jan-09 (qr) and equities such that the U.S. witnessed net Treas uries Corp Bonds GSEs E quity T ota l outflows in the quarter. This development continued Source: U.S. Treasury ‘TICS’ database. into January 2009 and may come to undermine the greenback in coming months. Emerging market currencies down vs EM currencies continue decline. The dollar’s the dollar over 2009 to date percentage change (USD per LCU) (%) ups and downs against the major currencies seem to US NEER be carrying less influence on emerging market units Indo rph than do conditions in the economies of these Mys rgt countries themselves. Several currencies in the ECA Ind rpe region have weakened on the back of lower oil Brz rei revenues and economic activity (Russia), financial Tur lra and current account difficulties to varying degrees, Cze crn (Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic). The Brazilian Mex pso Hun frt unit has come under moderate pressure, as have Pol zty several in East Asia, including the Malaysian ringgit, Rus Rbl Indonesia rupiah and Indian rupee. -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Source: Thomson/Datastream. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 12 Table A.1 Global industrial production growth (constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/) Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb World 100.0 2.7 4.5 4.4 0.7 3.7 0.2 -4.4 -20.9 -3.3 -3.5 -3.5 .. High-income countries 77.2 1.5 3.0 2.4 -1.7 0.4 -3.2 -5.8 -23.0 -3.6 -4.0 -4.1 .. Industrial countries 72.7 1.5 3.1 2.6 -1.9 -0.1 -3.4 -5.9 -22.8 -3.5 -4.1 -3.9 .. United States 25.1 1.4 2.2 1.7 -1.8 0.4 -3.4 -8.8 -12.1 -1.3 -2.4 -1.9 -1.4 Japan 17.3 1.1 4.1 2.9 -3.1 -1.8 -3.6 -4.6 -39.5 -8.0 -9.4 -9.1 .. Euro Area 22.9 1.2 3.4 2.8 -2.0 0.6 -4.7 -4.6 -23.6 -3.1 -3.1 -4.0 .. United Kindgom 4.1 -0.3 0.7 0.1 -2.8 -1.4 -4.6 -6.8 -16.7 -2.4 -1.5 -2.6 .. Other high income 4.5 2.3 1.6 0.6 2.8 13.7 -2.4 -2.6 -29.5 -4.8 -2.8 .. .. Hong Kong (China) 0.2 -3.2 2.4 -1.6 -6.0 -10.9 -6.0 -12.5 -6.1 1.0 4.0 .. .. Singapore 0.4 6.3 12.0 6.4 -4.1 45.1 -41.5 3.1 -26.7 2.9 -7.3 -9.7 .. Taiwan (China) 1.1 4.7 4.6 8.2 -1.3 0.6 -4.2 -13.1 -62.2 -18.4 -4.7 -15.3 .. Developing countries 22.8 6.6 8.8 9.8 6.3 10.7 8.2 -1.6 -15.1 -2.5 -2.2 .. .. East Asia and Pacific 8.7 11.4 13.0 15.0 11.2 17.6 15.5 -0.3 -10.5 -1.7 0.7 .. .. China 6.3 13.8 16.5 17.7 13.0 19.2 19.3 0.3 -9.4 -1.7 1.6 .. .. Indonesia 0.9 .. -2.0 5.7 .. 14.3 -0.2 -8.5 .. 2.9 .. .. .. Thailand 0.6 8.6 7.3 8.2 5.3 7.1 0.2 4.6 -35.7 -9.1 -11.4 -0.7 .. Malaysia 0.5 5.8 5.0 1.2 0.6 7.8 -8.2 -4.9 -27.4 -2.1 -6.2 -2.1 .. Europe and Central Asia 3.2 5.1 7.9 7.1 1.1 5.4 3.0 -5.7 -29.8 -5.0 -6.8 .. .. Russian Federation 1.0 5.5 6.5 6.3 2.3 3.3 9.5 1.1 -31.5 -8.4 -3.5 -6.3 3.2 Turkey 0.5 3.7 8.0 6.9 -0.8 15.1 -8.0 -15.4 -34.4 1.0 -17.5 9.8 .. Poland 0.6 6.4 11.8 9.5 3.2 10.7 2.6 -12.8 -17.1 -3.6 -3.7 .. .. Czech Republic 0.2 5.2 11.0 8.8 0.1 3.7 -0.8 -10.1 -38.0 -3.7 -6.6 -4.6 .. Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 1.5 4.3 4.5 1.0 1.8 -0.9 0.0 -19.6 -4.3 -5.3 -0.6 .. Brazil 1.8 3.3 2.9 5.9 2.9 1.9 3.1 10.3 -33.0 -7.1 -12.7 2.3 .. Mexico 1.7 .. 5.7 2.4 -1.0 3.2 -4.3 -4.4 -11.5 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 .. Argentina 0.8 2.6 7.8 5.9 1.3 3.2 -1.6 -8.1 -16.5 -3.3 -1.1 -1.6 .. Colombia 0.3 .. 10.7 10.7 .. -10.9 0.7 -14.4 .. -5.3 .. .. .. Middle East and North Africa 1.9 1.7 -0.5 -0.4 3.6 8.2 3.2 2.2 -3.2 -0.3 -1.1 .. .. Saudi Arabia 1.2 1.0 -4.2 -4.7 6.2 10.1 5.9 6.4 -19.5 -4.8 -5.4 .. .. Iran 0.4 1.0 -2.7 -2.9 2.9 10.8 2.0 5.8 -7.3 -1.9 -2.4 .. .. Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Algeria 0.3 4.2 0.9 1.1 2.1 2.7 3.7 0.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 .. .. South Asia 1.6 6.8 10.6 9.2 4.0 8.5 0.9 -1.5 -6.4 0.8 -1.4 -0.4 .. India 1.3 6.7 10.5 9.9 4.3 7.5 -0.1 1.3 -6.3 1.3 -1.0 -0.5 .. Pakistan 0.2 6.7 10.6 5.6 -0.6 16.0 5.4 -21.7 -7.4 -3.1 -4.6 0.1 .. Bangladesh 0.1 .. 11.1 6.1 .. 9.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 .. 3.7 5.5 .. 2.0 5.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 0.4 2.6 4.8 4.2 1.0 -0.1 13.2 -10.5 -21.3 -4.8 -4.0 -1.2 .. Nigeria 0.3 .. 0.2 -0.7 .. 2.6 -7.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD 75.9 1.5 3.3 2.7 -1.8 0.3 -3.4 -6.2 -22.7 -3.4 -4.2 -3.7 .. Developing excl. China 16.6 3.5 5.1 5.5 2.0 5.1 1.3 -2.6 -19.3 -3.1 -5.0 .. .. Developing oil exporters 2.9 .. -1.4 0.7 .. 8.4 -0.8 -3.2 .. 0.7 .. .. .. Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 7.7 10.6 11.2 6.9 10.9 9.6 -1.3 -16.7 -2.9 -2.2 .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 13 Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change) Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb Real GDP a High-income countries 78.6 2.3 2.9 2.6 0.7 1.1 0.0 -0.5 -7.1 .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 75.4 2.3 2.8 2.4 0.7 1.4 0.2 -0.8 -7.0 .. .. .. .. United States 10.9 2.5 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.9 2.8 -0.5 -6.2 .. .. .. .. Japan 21.0 1.3 2.1 2.4 -0.7 1.4 -4.5 -1.4 -12.1 .. .. .. .. Euro Area 27.2 2.0 3.0 2.6 0.7 2.8 -1.0 -1.0 -5.7 .. .. .. .. United Kindgom 6.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 0.7 1.5 0.0 -2.6 -6.2 .. .. .. .. Other high income 3.2 4.3 5.9 6.1 1.5 -9.2 -5.5 9.2 -12.2 .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) 0.8 .. 7.0 6.4 2.5 -23.0 -9.5 27.9 1.2 .. .. .. .. Singapore 0.4 5.6 8.4 7.8 1.2 12.2 -7.7 -2.1 -16.4 .. .. .. .. Taiwan (China) 1.4 3.8 4.8 5.7 0.1 -11.9 -6.1 6.3 -19.8 .. .. .. .. Real merchandise imports b High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.2 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United States 23.8 8.2 5.7 1.3 -3.9 -2.1 -3.9 -3.6 -5.9 -6.9 -2.2 -6.7 .. Japan 6.7 5.2 4.0 -0.4 -0.8 1.3 2.0 -0.6 -6.0 0.3 -4.9 1.4 .. Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.5 6.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 10.2 -4.2 -1.9 1.3 2.1 -2.6 -8.1 -3.5 -4.0 -2.0 .. Other high income 11.7 5.5 9.2 10.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 10.1 10.4 2.6 8.3 5.6 3.2 -6.2 -12.7 -10.0 -3.2 .. Singapore 2.3 5.2 11.2 6.1 9.7 15.4 12.7 11.0 0.5 -0.8 -9.0 -5.9 1.4 Taiwan (China) 2.2 6.3 3.7 -0.2 -4.1 6.5 -3.8 -1.5 -17.5 -1.2 -20.6 -21.4 49.1 Import Prices c High-income countries 100.0 .. 5.8 6.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.2 7.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United States 23.8 -0.1 4.9 4.2 11.5 14.1 19.1 17.5 -3.8 -7.4 -4.6 -1.2 -0.2 Japan 6.7 -1.4 6.8 7.2 21.9 19.5 26.3 33.9 8.5 -6.4 -6.4 -1.6 .. Euro Area 37.1 .. 9.0 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United Kindgom 6.7 -1.3 3.1 11.0 7.5 11.8 14.8 13.2 -8.6 -6.1 -8.7 -5.0 .. Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.2 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.3 -0.3 2.9 1.7 3.8 4.2 1.9 0.4 -0.9 -0.6 .. Singapore 2.3 -0.3 6.6 3.6 11.5 13.9 19.4 21.4 -7.5 -11.9 -6.8 1.9 -1.3 Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 7.1 8.1 13.9 16.8 23.2 22.2 -5.4 -7.9 -5.7 -0.3 -1.3 Real effective exchange rates d Euro Area 33.5 1.6 0.9 4.1 4.2 7.5 8.6 5.4 -4.4 -2.0 3.9 1.7 -1.8 United States 14.4 -2.2 -2.7 -4.6 -3.7 -9.8 -9.5 -5.9 11.2 3.6 -0.2 1.0 2.6 Japan 7.4 -1.4 -8.9 -6.6 9.9 4.2 5.9 3.4 25.8 6.6 5.4 0.1 -2.2 United Kindgom 5.4 -1.7 -0.2 2.1 -11.9 -8.8 -10.1 -11.9 -17.1 -6.0 -5.4 -2.7 3.6 Canada 3.5 0.0 3.2 0.8 -8.3 5.8 -3.3 -10.5 -23.3 0.6 -3.1 -1.1 -0.9 Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -4.3 -2.6 -5.0 -8.2 -9.6 -11.3 -10.6 -1.3 5.3 0.2 -0.6 -0.3 Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.7 4.8 -2.0 -15.8 -8.6 -13.1 -12.8 -29.1 -5.5 -0.5 -0.1 -3.8 Singapore 2.3 1.4 5.1 6.9 4.7 2.6 4.0 7.3 4.7 -1.9 -3.1 3.2 0.0 Taiwan (China) 2.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.3 -4.2 -3.5 -2.3 -2.0 -8.8 -3.9 -3.7 -1.6 0.6 Switzerland 1.7 -1.0 -4.3 -4.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 0.0 5.9 0.8 2.3 0.4 -0.5 a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights. b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components. c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume. d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 14 Table A.3 Global credit conditions (percent unless otherwise indicated a/) Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 Latest 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 24-Mar Policy Rates United States .. 3.44 4.96 5.02 1.93 3.16 2.09 1.96 0.52 0.17 0.16 0.22 0.18 Japan .. 0.33 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.42 0.30 0.30 0.30 Euro Area .. .. 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.00 4.23 3.34 2.73 2.32 2.00 1.50 United Kindgom .. 4.80 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.35 5.03 5.00 3.32 2.13 1.61 1.08 0.50 Ten year bond United States .. 4.70 4.78 4.63 3.66 3.69 3.85 3.84 3.25 2.47 2.40 2.80 2.53 Japan .. 1.49 1.74 1.67 1.49 1.39 1.60 1.53 1.44 1.35 1.25 1.30 1.31 Euro Area .. .. 3.73 4.20 4.00 3.97 4.24 4.29 3.51 3.03 3.04 3.19 3.22 United Kindgom .. 4.77 4.48 5.01 4.52 4.50 4.80 4.70 4.07 3.59 3.52 3.64 3.11 Spreads (Basis points)b,c Developing countries .. 399 198 197 406 295 281 337 710 758 694 680 685 East Asia and Pacific .. 247 180 161 355 257 253 303 608 626 587 546 553 China .. 82 64 71 166 140 139 157 229 230 199 175 174 Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand .. .. 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Malaysia .. 129 84 87 201 131 135 161 377 396 353 352 352 Europe and Central Asia .. 286 149 158 370 237 237 296 709 786 689 689 719 Russian Federation .. 262 111 121 328 191 169 238 715 854 726 685 691 Turkey .. 404 223 214 383 292 312 336 593 592 510 540 579 Poland .. 99 59 61 159 108 104 131 293 310 312 302 319 Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Latin America and Caribbean .. 522 227 221 438 323 304 367 759 805 744 733 731 Brazil .. 551 233 180 301 258 214 252 480 478 430 429 438 Mexico .. 206 137 126 254 190 162 213 452 461 423 435 455 Argentina .. 2920 343 320 858 483 557 696 1698 1828 1578 1645 1841 Colombia .. 370 194 161 305 251 192 237 540 536 503 479 487 Middle East and North Africa .. .. 338 476 585 546 505 486 804 926 871 790 771 Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt .. .. 79 86 262 230 180 244 393 404 296 235 225 Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Pakistan .. .. 199 283 1040 568 596 965 2031 2135 2062 1957 1855 Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa .. 390 266 288 452 402 338 318 749 819 695 661 672 South Africa .. 172 90 100 329 233 215 254 616 618 482 458 450 Nigeria .. .. 245 77 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Gross inflows e Developing countries .. .. 494 683 370 103 148 73 46 17 18 15 .. East Asia and Pacific .. .. 111 145 67 23 26 12 7 3 3 3 .. Europe and Central Asia .. .. 179 252 155 36 63 34 22 5 6 1 .. Latin America and Carribean .. .. 116 157 80 19 38 14 10 5 9 10 .. Middle East and North Africa .. .. 16 15 25 5 13 6 2 1 0 0 .. South Asia .. .. 42 69 25 16 4 4 1 1 0 0 .. Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 30 46 17 6 4 4 4 2 0 0 .. a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures. b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003. c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan. d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries. e/In billions of US dollars. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 15 Table A.4 Commodity price indices (current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/) Weightsb Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 1990 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb Energy .. .. 220.9 244.8 342.0 331.1 417.8 406.0 212.9 207.2 165.3 170.3 161.5 Coal, Australia .. 15.8 187.0 250.4 484.2 434.3 528.2 620.2 354.2 351.4 299.6 302.5 287.2 Crude oil, average .. 22.2 227.7 251.9 343.6 337.6 428.5 409.8 198.4 191.2 146.4 155.4 148.2 Natural gas , Europe .. 18.7 219.5 221.7 347.5 281.5 321.4 378.9 408.1 409.8 401.7 360.0 339.3 Non-energy 100.00 .. 192.0 224.7 272.0 281.2 307.8 292.6 206.3 202.9 189.3 199.2 196.5 Agriculture 69.10 .. 150.2 180.3 229.5 236.4 259.4 243.5 178.6 177.0 169.5 183.3 181.7 Beverages 16.90 .. 145.4 169.9 210.0 210.7 221.4 226.8 181.2 173.7 184.0 199.7 200.9 Cocoa 3.90 4.4 175.7 215.5 284.5 273.5 305.2 312.0 247.4 226.8 264.3 289.7 294.4 Coffee, arabica 8.00 0.3 131.4 141.9 160.5 171.1 164.2 167.3 139.5 140.0 136.6 147.3 148.7 Coffee, robusta 2.80 2.4 163.1 209.1 254.2 270.9 266.8 268.2 210.9 219.2 199.2 199.8 193.7 Food 29.40 .. 147.0 184.7 247.4 257.2 286.3 260.5 185.7 183.8 176.0 191.7 189.6 Fats and oils 10.10 .. 137.9 209.0 277.3 310.2 327.7 288.9 182.4 179.9 171.6 194.6 192.8 Palm oil 2.30 3.5 154.2 251.5 305.7 372.6 386.2 299.1 165.0 157.3 162.1 181.1 184.0 Soybean meal 4.10 9.6 110.6 163.0 224.4 234.4 255.7 238.1 169.3 170.7 158.6 194.8 202.5 Soybeans 2.00 8.0 126.8 181.3 246.8 265.6 276.2 267.3 178.1 178.4 169.9 195.0 184.6 Grains 6.90 .. 149.8 189.0 281.7 274.6 335.2 298.5 218.6 214.4 206.6 225.0 218.6 Maize 1.70 8.1 137.6 184.9 252.0 248.9 292.5 276.4 190.2 185.0 178.8 195.2 184.5 Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 7.9 150.6 161.3 321.2 236.2 422.6 347.3 278.8 272.7 262.8 286.6 291.9 Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 10.0 168.3 223.7 285.8 360.9 303.7 278.5 200.0 198.8 193.0 209.6 196.9 Other food 12.40 .. 156.4 149.0 177.1 171.9 187.4 188.9 160.2 161.3 154.1 157.6 159.3 Bananas, US 2.30 5.6 159.7 159.4 199.1 197.2 216.9 182.7 199.7 212.9 195.8 193.4 207.1 Sugar, world 7.50 0.6 126.1 98.0 115.7 118.0 115.5 126.7 102.5 102.8 101.7 106.8 110.1 Raw materials 22.80 .. 160.4 174.9 195.7 198.9 213.7 210.4 160.0 162.2 146.3 154.6 152.8 Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 0.9 97.3 107.1 120.9 129.0 127.9 129.2 97.5 93.0 93.9 97.7 93.5 Rubber, Singapore 4.80 13.6 311.6 339.2 387.6 410.0 454.9 447.3 238.3 247.5 180.3 222.9 219.3 Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 6.3 126.0 135.6 149.5 144.7 157.4 151.4 144.6 146.7 142.2 137.6 137.5 Fertilizers 2.70 .. 168.6 240.1 566.7 409.4 624.1 741.1 492.2 456.4 417.7 405.0 366.1 Triple superphosphate 0.90 17.7 146.4 246.2 638.6 519.0 752.6 804.4 478.3 440.1 294.1 254.2 232.4 Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 280.3 314.0 325.7 358.7 371.1 342.4 230.6 227.3 204.0 208.4 207.6 Aluminum 7.90 6.6 165.9 170.3 166.1 177.0 189.8 179.9 117.6 119.6 96.2 91.2 85.9 Copper 9.30 15.4 370.7 392.5 383.6 429.9 465.6 423.5 215.3 205.0 169.4 177.6 182.8 Gold .. 11.5 216.6 249.7 312.4 332.1 321.1 311.6 284.7 272.7 292.5 307.7 338.0 Nickel 2.20 16.4 280.8 431.0 244.4 335.2 297.3 219.5 125.5 123.9 112.1 130.9 120.5 Memo: Crude Oil (US$) .. 22.2 64.3 71.1 97.0 95.3 121.0 115.7 56.0 54.0 41.3 43.9 41.8 a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990. b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 16 Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a) Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb Export values Developing countries 100.0 16.8 22.7 19.5 20.8 45.4 20.6 14.9 -55.7 -15.4 -8.3 -0.2 .. East Asia and Pacific 36.3 18.5 23.9 22.2 16.6 34.0 23.3 18.3 -46.2 -17.1 -6.0 4.6 .. China 16.7 22.8 27.2 25.7 17.3 41.7 18.0 23.5 -41.2 -19.3 -5.8 8.4 -22.2 Indonesia 4.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand 4.6 12.6 16.9 17.2 16.9 23.7 29.4 1.0 -56.7 -21.0 7.5 -4.2 .. Europe and Central Asia 20.7 18.9 21.5 23.3 26.3 60.2 21.9 8.7 -69.0 -16.4 -12.4 -3.2 .. Russian Federation 7.1 20.3 24.5 16.8 33.1 60.0 20.2 20.5 -71.8 -20.5 -10.3 -14.4 .. Turkey 1.8 17.2 16.4 25.4 23.0 128.7 -10.3 21.4 -76.9 -6.7 -22.3 41.5 .. Poland 2.1 19.7 22.5 25.9 23.6 55.2 35.5 -10.4 -76.4 -14.3 -12.6 1.9 .. Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 10.9 19.7 13.3 12.2 13.3 18.8 7.8 -54.4 -10.1 -9.0 -8.3 .. Brazil 3.7 14.5 16.3 16.6 23.2 4.8 108.6 13.3 -47.8 -10.6 -6.9 -20.0 6.3 Mexico 11.2 9.5 16.7 8.8 7.3 18.2 4.4 -2.8 -53.9 -6.7 -11.8 -2.6 .. Argentina 1.8 10.3 15.0 20.1 26.5 41.6 -22.8 136.0 -70.0 -12.7 -18.8 3.9 .. Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. 30.4 6.4 .. 128.1 43.1 23.5 .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 23.6 0.9 .. 105.6 15.5 24.4 .. .. .. .. .. Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 0.3 .. 32.5 18.2 .. 123.6 192.7 -24.5 .. -21.5 .. .. .. South Asia 4.3 15.5 26.4 19.6 19.2 49.8 4.7 10.8 -45.5 -4.5 0.1 -1.4 .. India 2.8 18.2 31.8 23.8 20.2 48.5 -2.1 15.2 -47.0 -4.5 1.2 -1.6 .. Pakistan 0.6 9.4 5.2 2.4 21.4 77.4 34.7 -11.4 -39.0 -8.1 -8.4 0.9 -4.2 Bangladesh 0.4 .. 24.2 7.7 .. 44.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 20.6 16.3 .. 110.3 -2.7 38.2 .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 2.0 12.0 12.2 19.3 19.3 38.7 19.0 29.2 -61.6 -28.6 -14.9 -5.7 .. Nigeria 1.4 .. 24.4 10.2 .. 45.1 32.5 45.1 .. .. .. .. .. b,c Export prices Developing countries 100.0 .. 6.7 4.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. East Asia and Pacific 36.3 .. 3.1 2.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China 16.7 0.0 2.8 1.7 2.3 -2.1 7.3 4.2 -2.7 1.4 0.3 0.2 .. Indonesia 4.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand 4.6 5.7 3.7 6.4 11.4 7.6 44.9 5.8 -23.7 -0.9 -3.8 0.8 .. Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 9.2 9.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation 7.1 .. 16.2 20.2 .. 39.9 45.9 50.0 .. -8.8 .. .. .. Turkey 1.8 3.6 3.5 12.5 15.4 23.3 30.6 13.8 -55.2 -7.9 -0.3 -4.0 .. Poland 2.1 .. 6.4 0.4 .. 3.1 -6.1 -14.5 .. .. .. .. .. Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 6.6 12.0 7.5 15.0 21.7 35.6 18.8 -52.3 -9.0 -5.1 .. .. Brazil 3.7 5.4 12.5 10.5 26.3 26.2 47.1 56.8 -35.2 -8.3 -8.1 -5.3 -3.5 Mexico 11.2 5.8 7.5 5.1 9.8 13.5 36.8 4.4 -64.5 -9.7 -4.2 -0.4 .. Argentina 1.8 5.3 8.6 11.4 25.0 55.9 20.8 7.5 -35.7 -7.0 -4.5 .. .. Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 25.8 3.7 .. 96.7 47.4 -27.8 .. .. .. .. .. Iran 1.9 .. -7.7 -6.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 0.3 .. -1.6 7.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Asia 4.3 2.4 2.9 10.7 9.1 12.0 9.9 0.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.1 .. .. India 2.8 4.1 3.7 9.4 9.3 11.4 7.9 3.0 -3.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 Pakistan 0.6 0.5 2.6 3.3 12.4 23.1 26.8 -26.8 13.2 2.1 1.9 .. .. Bangladesh 0.4 -6.8 -6.3 13.1 -4.7 -7.0 -17.7 -13.0 2.4 0.2 0.2 .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 2.0 .. 8.4 7.5 .. 40.3 -4.6 8.8 .. .. .. .. .. Nigeria 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. /a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis. /b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis. /c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 17 Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a) Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb Import values Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 48.0 21.2 19.6 -57.2 -16.7 -7.7 -13.8 .. East Asia and Pacific 35.2 18.7 16.8 18.6 21.2 61.0 3.0 14.3 -57.7 -22.2 -7.6 -17.0 .. China 19.3 23.2 19.9 20.8 18.6 52.4 0.1 15.4 -59.1 -28.1 -5.7 -16.8 37.3 Indonesia 2.1 16.8 5.8 22.0 73.4 292.0 50.8 3.2 -48.7 -12.0 -13.8 -22.1 .. Thailand 4.2 15.5 9.0 8.7 27.6 70.9 -9.5 64.0 -51.1 -13.2 -6.8 -18.9 .. Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. 44.2 32.8 12.4 -66.2 -16.9 -10.8 -12.1 .. Russian Federation 3.9 17.5 31.0 36.0 30.6 5.1 93.4 42.5 -58.0 -23.8 -2.6 -35.7 .. Turkey 3.2 16.0 19.5 21.8 18.8 69.4 1.3 11.7 -80.2 -19.4 -14.2 6.6 .. Poland 3.6 16.1 23.7 29.9 26.9 68.7 28.5 -2.9 -73.9 -11.8 -19.1 -1.3 .. Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 10.0 19.2 19.0 21.2 39.0 24.6 18.6 -44.6 -11.5 -6.0 -11.2 .. Brazil 3.2 11.6 24.1 32.0 43.6 55.8 74.7 39.3 -46.3 -17.9 -0.9 -15.8 -10.0 Mexico 11.6 9.4 15.4 10.1 9.5 39.2 -1.3 11.6 -49.7 -5.5 -12.7 -5.6 .. Argentina 0.6 6.2 19.0 30.9 28.4 43.0 46.7 3.2 -53.5 -15.0 -4.0 -22.2 .. Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 8.2 23.3 .. 25.0 69.2 36.4 .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 18.9 36.0 .. 6.5 25.9 22.8 .. .. .. .. .. Iran 1.4 .. 5.6 20.9 .. 26.1 34.0 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 0.8 .. 4.0 31.4 .. 5.8 527.3 52.6 .. -5.3 .. .. .. South Asia 5.5 19.0 20.7 23.9 31.7 57.0 41.6 57.1 -60.5 -2.8 -4.8 -10.7 .. India 3.7 21.3 21.9 28.2 32.6 40.2 47.8 72.6 -61.3 -0.6 -4.3 -11.0 .. Pakistan 0.7 16.7 17.5 9.2 34.3 171.3 10.9 -4.2 -66.5 -16.1 -8.8 -7.8 -10.2 Bangladesh 0.5 .. 15.5 15.4 .. 87.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 21.9 21.8 .. 28.8 16.4 35.5 .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 1.9 13.3 23.6 16.3 15.6 40.1 1.3 37.7 -53.3 -14.5 -2.2 -13.4 .. Nigeria 0.5 .. 21.7 31.0 .. 62.2 12.8 65.5 .. .. .. .. .. b,c Import prices Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Indonesia 2.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand 4.2 4.0 4.9 6.0 13.6 10.3 44.4 2.2 -29.9 -1.1 -4.8 0.1 .. Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation 3.9 3.3 12.0 11.7 13.7 16.2 13.9 9.8 4.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Turkey 3.2 5.1 10.1 7.9 20.0 26.8 43.3 14.5 -49.0 -8.7 -4.5 -5.9 .. Poland 3.6 -0.2 6.9 -1.8 0.0 -3.3 2.0 -7.1 37.9 9.4 3.2 .. .. Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 4.0 5.4 6.6 13.4 17.7 29.4 19.3 -24.2 -4.0 -4.2 .. .. Brazil 3.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 22.0 30.6 43.1 27.5 -30.5 -3.5 -6.3 1.8 -5.5 Mexico 11.6 3.3 4.5 5.4 8.5 12.2 16.1 12.4 -17.0 -2.2 -2.0 0.1 .. Argentina 0.6 1.9 2.3 7.3 11.2 12.4 43.9 11.4 -31.7 -5.4 -3.7 .. .. Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 2.7 7.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 1.4 .. 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 0.8 .. -3.4 13.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Asia 5.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India 3.7 .. -10.4 6.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Pakistan 0.7 .. -10.5 -40.0 .. -93.7 -100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. Bangladesh 0.5 -6.2 -4.7 12.6 -5.3 -7.6 -18.1 -13.4 1.8 0.2 0.1 .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 1.9 .. 3.7 4.3 .. 17.9 11.4 14.0 .. .. .. .. .. Nigeria 0.5 .. 2.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. /a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis. /b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis. /c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 18 Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances (Billion US dollars; annual rates) CAB US$ bn. % GDP 2008 2008 2008 2009 2008 2008 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb World 0.0 0.0 -304 -315 -462 -391 -399 -608 -451 -483 -323 15 .. High-income countries a -374.5 -0.9 -447 -413 -468 -418 -420 -576 -460 -518 -340 -461 .. Industrial countries -449.8 -1.1 -636 -561 -662 -640 -627 -753 -630 -673 -511 -647 .. United States -661.9 -4.7 -817 -794 -800 -825 -851 -843 -679 -620 -601 -553 .. Japan 183.0 3.7 66 92 22 95 54 -24 -38 -49 -27 -49 .. Euro Area -9.3 -0.1 -14 42 -38 -20 -27 -63 -41 -86 -12 -87 .. United Kindgom -73.2 -2.7 -139 -179 -177 -185 -185 -186 -152 -159 -133 -134 .. Other high income 75.3 4.0 190 148 198 221 207 178 185 175 175 220 .. Hong Kong (China) 21.0 9.6 -18 -23 -26 -21 -30 -32 -20 -18 -9 -11 .. Singapore 29.9 17.4 33 36 17 31 18 10 10 15 11 15 12 Taiwan (China) 24.4 5.8 20 27 15 15 23 5 17 11 17 43 18 Developing countries 0.0 0.0 151 109 23 43 38 -15 26 59 31 559 .. East Asia and Pacific 400.0 8.0 138 220 186 91 180 204 269 285 291 588 .. China 360.0 9.5 174 264 295 220 278 314 368 389 365 605 60 Indonesia 3.6 0.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand 0.6 0.2 1 12 -1 -1 16 -7 -11 -22 0 21 .. Malaysia 33.3 16.3 29 30 43 31 55 51 35 36 37 28 .. Europe and Central Asia .. .. -5 -46 -30 4 -28 -41 -55 -45 -58 34 .. Russian Federation 103.4 6.4 143 135 184 224 200 196 118 122 91 128 .. Turkey -46.9 -8.3 -54 -63 -69 -74 -78 -77 -48 -37 -41 -14 .. Poland -26.1 -4.8 -16 -25 -36 -37 -37 -40 -32 -37 -22 -18 .. Czech Republic -6.1 -2.9 1 4 4 5 6 4 -1 3 -6 1 .. Latin America and Caribbean -18.4 -0.5 35 6 -61 -35 -47 -69 -94 -81 -97 -68 .. Brazil -29.4 -1.9 46 40 24 21 33 24 19 27 16 6 28 Mexico -15.3 -1.6 -6 -10 -17 -14 -10 -21 -23 -25 -20 -12 .. Argentina 7.0 2.4 12 11 13 16 6 21 10 14 4 16 .. Colombia -5.5 -2.9 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -6 -11 -3 .. .. Middle East and North Africa .. .. 45 16 .. 65 58 53 .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 143.0 29.3 125 104 .. 163 166 176 .. .. .. .. .. Iran 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 1.2 0.7 -7 -11 .. -9 -21 -29 .. -36 .. .. .. Algeria 0.0 0.0 29 23 .. 37 34 32 .. .. .. .. .. South Asia .. -74 -99 -154 -127 -156 -196 -140 -145 -128 -97 .. India .. .. -53 -73 -115 -87 -115 -151 -107 -113 -100 -75 .. Pakistan -15.7 -9.9 -13 -15 -23 -25 -25 -25 -16 -15 -14 -11 -9 Bangladesh .. .. -3 -4 .. -5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka .. .. -3 -3 .. -6 -5 -6 .. -6 .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 21 14 .. 62 49 55 .. .. .. .. .. South Africa -21.3 -8.0 -10 -10 -11 -12 -8 -11 -12 -14 -22 -15 .. Nigeria 18.9 9.9 24 20 .. 27 31 32 .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters 203.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ Seasonally adjusted March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 19 Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU) (annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/) Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 Latest Levelb 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 24-Mar World 100.0 94.7 0.4 5.7 4.4 9.3 10.7 6.7 -7.4 -0.1 -0.9 -2.9 -0.7 High-income countries 78.3 .. 0.0 6.1 4.7 10.2 11.8 6.8 -8.2 1.2 -0.4 -2.8 -0.7 Industrial countries 70.6 .. 0.1 7.0 5.0 11.4 12.9 7.2 -9.3 1.4 -0.4 -3.0 -0.8 United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 -1.4 4.1 3.9 5.5 7.6 5.8 -2.9 -2.1 1.8 -1.7 -0.6 Japan 7.4 114.3 -6.4 -1.5 12.4 9.5 16.1 11.7 12.6 3.8 7.1 -2.8 -5.1 Euro Area 29.5 .. 1.0 9.1 6.9 14.3 15.8 9.1 -9.1 6.0 -1.8 -3.5 0.9 United Kindgom 5.6 0.6 -0.6 9.5 -5.3 1.3 0.5 -2.1 -18.5 -9.1 -5.9 -0.2 -2.4 Other high income 7.7 101.6 -0.4 0.5 2.7 1.9 4.3 4.1 0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -1.3 -0.3 Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Singapore 2.3 1.7 3.8 5.6 7.2 7.5 10.8 10.8 0.3 -2.0 1.1 -1.8 -1.2 Taiwan (China) 2.1 32.9 -1.6 -0.8 4.4 1.9 8.6 7.3 0.1 -1.3 -0.6 -2.7 -0.7 Developing countries 21.7 112.8 1.5 4.6 3.8 6.7 7.7 6.4 -5.0 -3.6 -2.3 -3.2 -0.5 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 101.4 3.6 5.8 4.7 6.6 7.6 5.3 -0.4 -3.6 1.6 -1.6 -0.9 China 2.7 8.1 2.7 4.6 9.3 7.3 9.9 10.7 9.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Indonesia 1.1 9077.8 4.7 1.2 -4.4 -2.4 -2.3 -0.4 -11.6 -14.7 6.5 -6.0 -1.0 Thailand 1.3 39.3 4.6 10.4 4.5 8.1 9.9 1.9 -1.4 -1.9 0.4 -1.2 -1.5 Malaysia 1.4 3.7 2.8 6.7 4.2 7.5 8.0 5.4 -3.5 -2.5 1.4 -1.8 -1.5 Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.0 1.5 8.3 8.1 10.2 13.5 14.0 -3.7 -5.0 -9.6 -8.9 1.6 Russian Federation 1.5 27.8 3.0 6.5 4.8 7.5 9.5 8.4 -5.4 -3.5 -14.2 -11.1 2.4 Turkey .. 1.2 -5.2 7.4 4.2 20.0 8.2 8.2 -15.5 -7.1 -0.6 -3.6 -3.7 Poland 0.5 3.6 2.8 11.8 18.4 20.3 28.6 30.4 -1.7 -7.8 -8.5 -12.1 1.3 Czech Republic 0.5 28.3 4.1 11.4 21.2 20.9 30.1 33.3 3.4 -6.0 -3.6 -7.8 5.6 Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 135.1 1.8 2.7 3.1 5.9 7.6 7.6 -7.5 -3.1 -2.4 -2.2 -0.7 Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.0 10.6 10.9 20.7 20.7 19.9 -12.3 -4.1 -2.1 -0.1 -0.6 Mexico 1.7 10.4 0.6 -0.5 0.1 0.7 3.9 6.5 -9.3 -4.5 -6.0 -4.7 -1.4 Argentina 0.4 2.4 -4.9 -1.2 -1.0 -2.1 -2.2 2.7 -2.4 -2.5 -4.5 -1.4 -3.5 Colombia 0.3 2282.0 -1.3 12.6 7.8 13.9 16.9 11.5 -7.9 -1.7 3.0 -10.3 1.8 Middle East and North Africa 1.7 152.6 -0.7 1.7 2.9 3.0 5.2 4.8 -1.3 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iran 0.4 6515.1 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 1.7 -0.3 -5.0 0.3 -0.5 2.6 -1.9 Egypt 0.3 5.0 1.4 1.4 3.9 3.7 5.8 5.7 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 Algeria 0.3 72.7 0.5 4.6 8.3 6.6 9.3 11.9 5.8 -8.6 -4.8 -0.5 -0.8 South Asia 1.2 105.4 -3.1 4.7 -3.5 7.9 1.5 -5.8 -15.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.7 -2.9 India 0.8 44.9 -3.1 8.6 -2.2 12.3 3.6 -5.1 -16.7 -0.7 0.2 -0.9 -4.2 Pakistan 0.2 58.9 -1.2 -0.9 -11.9 -0.6 -5.6 -14.7 -23.3 0.4 1.0 -0.5 -1.0 Bangladesh 0.1 60.2 -7.0 -0.4 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Sri Lanka 0.1 95.0 -2.6 -6.4 2.2 -0.1 1.9 3.6 3.4 -1.8 -3.4 -0.3 0.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 114.9 -3.5 -0.4 -3.0 4.4 1.0 0.1 -14.9 -5.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.9 South Africa 0.6 7.4 -6.1 -5.0 -11.7 -0.5 -8.2 -7.9 -26.3 -3.5 2.0 -0.8 -1.3 Nigeria 0.3 118.5 2.2 1.6 6.2 8.7 8.5 7.8 0.2 -11.8 -8.8 -1.0 0.2 Memo: OECD 73.7 .. 0.1 6.9 5.1 11.2 12.9 7.6 -9.1 1.1 -0.7 -3.2 -0.7 Developing excl. China 19.0 115.2 1.3 4.6 3.0 6.7 7.4 5.8 -6.8 -4.1 -2.7 -3.6 -0.5 Developing oil exporters 2.8 159.0 1.1 1.0 -0.6 0.4 1.0 1.8 -5.2 -8.8 0.9 -2.4 -0.7 Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 107.2 1.5 5.2 4.4 7.7 8.7 7.2 -4.9 -2.8 -2.8 -3.3 -0.4 Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD). Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period. b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 20 Table A.9 Global Inflation (annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/) Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb World .. 4.5 3.1 2.9 4.5 4.3 4.8 5.8 3.7 3.6 .. .. 2.1 High-income countries .. 3.3 2.3 2.1 3.3 3.2 3.6 4.3 2.1 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 Industrial countries 3.5 3.2 2.3 2.1 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.2 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 United States 0.8 3.8 3.2 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.4 5.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 Japan 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.1 1.4 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 .. Euro Area 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.1 1.2 United Kindgom 5.0 3.6 2.3 2.3 3.6 2.4 3.4 4.8 3.9 4.1 3.1 3.0 .. Other high income .. 5.8 1.6 2.4 5.8 5.4 6.7 6.8 4.9 5.2 4.3 .. .. Hong Kong (China) 3.7 4.3 2.0 2.0 4.3 4.6 5.7 4.6 2.3 3.1 2.0 3.1 0.8 Singapore 4.4 6.5 1.0 2.1 6.5 6.6 7.5 6.6 5.4 5.5 4.3 2.9 .. Taiwan (China) 4.6 3.5 0.6 1.8 3.5 3.6 4.2 4.5 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -1.3 Developing countries 10.0 9.0 6.2 6.0 9.0 8.0 9.1 11.3 9.3 9.7 .. .. 6.6 East Asia and Pacific 10.1 7.5 5.4 5.2 7.5 6.5 9.7 11.3 8.7 9.2 7.7 3.9 3.7 China 1.5 5.8 1.5 4.8 5.8 8.0 7.8 5.3 2.5 2.4 1.2 1.0 -1.6 Indonesia 11.2 10.0 13.1 5.8 10.0 6.5 10.1 12.0 11.5 11.7 11.1 9.2 8.6 Thailand 1.5 5.5 4.6 2.2 5.5 5.0 7.5 7.3 2.1 2.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 Malaysia 6.1 5.4 3.6 2.0 5.4 2.6 4.9 8.4 5.9 5.7 4.4 3.9 3.7 Europe and Central Asia 10.8 10.4 5.6 8.0 10.4 10.6 11.4 11.3 8.3 8.7 7.0 7.1 7.7 Russian Federation 12.1 14.1 9.7 9.0 14.1 12.9 14.9 14.9 13.7 13.8 13.3 13.4 13.9 Turkey 11.7 10.4 9.6 8.8 10.4 8.8 10.3 11.7 10.9 10.8 10.1 9.5 7.7 Poland 3.4 4.3 1.1 2.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.7 Czech Republic 1.1 6.3 2.5 2.9 6.3 7.4 6.7 6.6 4.5 4.4 3.6 2.2 .. Latin America and Caribbean 9.4 8.7 5.8 6.2 8.7 8.4 9.1 9.9 9.1 9.6 7.7 6.5 6.2 Brazil 6.1 5.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.2 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.9 Mexico 6.4 5.1 3.6 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.2 Argentina 7.1 8.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 8.5 9.1 8.9 7.8 7.9 7.2 6.8 6.8 Colombia 7.3 7.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 6.1 6.4 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.2 6.5 Middle East and North Africa .. .. 5.4 4.7 .. 8.4 14.1 13.6 .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 10.9 9.7 2.1 3.9 9.7 7.4 10.1 10.9 10.2 10.9 9.5 .. .. Iran .. .. 11.6 16.8 .. 19.7 24.0 26.7 .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 18.6 18.3 7.6 9.5 18.3 12.3 18.8 22.5 19.6 20.3 18.3 14.4 13.5 Algeria 1.8 0.1 2.3 3.6 .. 4.3 6.1 2.1 .. 4.1 .. .. .. South Asia 11.3 15.5 7.7 7.6 15.5 11.1 8.4 12.1 13.6 13.4 .. .. .. India 12.7 8.3 6.2 6.4 8.3 6.3 7.8 9.0 10.2 10.4 9.7 10.4 .. Pakistan 26.5 .. 7.9 7.6 .. 12.4 19.3 24.5 .. 24.7 .. .. 21.1 Bangladesh 10.1 .. 6.8 8.7 .. 11.1 8.4 10.3 .. 7.3 .. .. .. Sri Lanka 14.4 22.6 10.0 15.8 22.6 22.1 26.5 25.2 16.9 16.3 14.4 10.7 7.6 Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Nigeria 17.3 .. 8.5 5.5 .. 7.7 8.6 12.8 .. 14.7 .. .. .. Memo: OECD 3.5 3.3 2.4 2.2 3.3 3.2 3.6 4.3 2.2 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters 11.8 .. 10.0 5.7 .. 8.8 11.3 13.2 .. 13.2 .. .. .. Developing non-oil exporters 9.8 8.7 6.1 6.2 8.7 8.0 9.0 11.1 9.2 9.6 .. .. 6.5 Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in that time period. For developing countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the components. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 21 Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates (percentage a/) Weights 2008 2008 2008 2009 Latest 1995 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 24-Mar World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. High-income countriesb 82.8 3.83 4.13 2.32 3.12 2.48 2.41 1.25 0.80 0.64 0.56 0.45 Industrial countries 80.6 3.84 4.15 2.32 3.14 2.49 2.41 1.25 0.80 0.65 0.56 0.46 United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 4.96 5.02 1.93 3.16 2.09 1.96 0.52 0.17 0.16 0.22 0.18 Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.42 0.30 0.30 0.30 Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.00 4.23 3.34 2.73 2.32 2.00 1.50 United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.35 5.03 5.00 3.32 2.13 1.61 1.08 0.50 Other high income 2.2 3.27 3.37 2.16 2.60 2.37 2.36 1.32 0.79 0.43 0.34 .. Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 6.50 6.52 3.13 4.25 3.58 3.50 1.17 0.50 0.50 0.50 .. Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 3.40 2.68 1.15 1.47 1.09 1.03 1.01 0.75 0.61 0.44 0.44 Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.56 1.96 1.93 2.08 2.10 2.14 1.40 0.86 0.27 0.14 0.13 Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.86 6.71 7.18 7.47 7.47 7.43 6.34 5.50 5.31 5.31 5.31 Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 3.39 3.50 3.48 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.41 3.25 3.00 2.41 1.99 Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 11.64 10.27 10.87 10.16 10.48 10.97 11.88 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.76 18.37 17.05 16.39 16.48 17.80 17.55 16.86 14.77 13.14 11.13 Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 4.09 4.48 5.88 5.40 5.95 6.10 6.05 5.71 5.01 4.19 3.60 Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 2.17 2.86 3.49 3.65 3.75 3.60 2.98 2.53 2.25 1.85 1.75 Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 15.33 12.05 12.45 11.25 11.81 12.97 13.75 13.75 13.43 12.75 11.25 Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.30 7.36 7.88 7.52 7.64 8.29 8.09 8.18 7.74 7.31 7.29 Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 6.45 8.09 11.43 8.41 10.42 11.46 15.42 15.65 14.29 11.69 10.73 Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 6.27 7.94 9.68 9.24 9.67 9.80 10.02 10.19 9.73 9.24 8.13 Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 5.02 4.79 .. 2.52 2.14 3.10 .. .. .. .. .. Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 9.00 .. 9.00 9.33 10.83 .. .. .. .. .. Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. South Asia 1.6 .. .. .. India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.97 7.04 7.90 7.50 7.50 7.59 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 8.58 9.09 10.63 9.53 10.16 11.70 11.12 10.37 11.19 11.29 12.38 Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 9.14 10.43 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.36 10.25 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.63 9.61 11.61 11.00 11.53 12.00 11.90 11.70 11.50 10.70 10.50 Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.25 9.13 .. 9.50 10.08 10.08 .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available). b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 22 Table A.11 Stock Markets (indices, year 2000=100) Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 Latest 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 24-Mar World .. 91 106 124 102 115 112 93 72 72 65 59 65 High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United States .. 89 100 112 92 100 98 89 68 68 63 56 63 Japan .. 84 107 109 77 79 86 71 56 56 52 49 52 Euro Area .. 99 121 148 117 137 129 103 80 80 70 63 69 United Kindgom .. 88 98 106 88 94 92 81 73 73 69 63 65 Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) .. .. 127 152 125 142 136 113 81 81 78 73 72 Singapore .. .. 113 150 121 126 124 107 121 121 124 111 111 Taiwan (China) .. 72 80 94 85 100 88 62 51 .. .. .. .. Developing countriesa,b .. 156 203 275 262 282 268 219 160 .. .. .. .. East Asia and Pacificc .. 123 146 219 192 216 187 144 108 .. .. .. .. China .. 118 109 240 215 238 202 157 118 .. .. .. .. Indonesia .. 207 268 397 415 462 442 322 188 .. .. .. .. Thailand .. 188 231 282 274 325 284 215 143 .. .. .. .. Malaysia .. 116 120 183 169 182 168 135 110 .. .. .. .. Europe and Central Asia .. .. 398 495 461 508 535 333 216 .. .. .. .. Russian Federation .. 525 878 1046 996 1116 1218 662 428 .. .. .. .. Turkey .. 87 119 166 139 130 126 124 81 .. .. .. .. Poland .. 168 228 319 272 313 278 226 148 .. .. .. .. Czech Republic .. 354 484 674 789 853 928 639 459 .. .. .. .. Latin America and Caribbean .. 203 263 394 426 447 487 333 228 .. .. .. .. Brazil .. 199 254 398 471 474 558 349 237 .. .. .. .. Mexico .. 193 260 360 337 376 360 290 197 .. .. .. .. Argentina .. 104 150 190 177 189 234 138 81 .. .. .. .. Colombia .. 352 589 685 653 685 686 615 522 522 490 457 500 Middle East and North Africa .. .. 332 366 384 387 402 397 286 .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia .. .. 527 339 340 389 385 309 197 197 197 186 186 Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt .. 213 328 412 484 573 512 359 243 .. .. .. .. Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India .. 198 266 411 375 413 327 283 199 .. .. .. .. Pakistan .. 241 370 452 346 528 375 231 134 134 123 135 154 Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka .. 229 312 358 283 330 314 261 171 171 198 180 173 Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa .. 216 307 378 322 326 330 275 201 .. .. .. .. Nigeria .. 409 450 807 868 1096 947 801 442 442 275 310 264 Memo: OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002 Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months. b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&P c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia Source: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index; All Others are IFC/S&P Indices March 27, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 23 Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts (annual percent change; billions of US dollars) GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD World 2.2 -0.3 -1.4 -0.4 2.5 1.3 1.4 -25 .. .. -16 .. .. High-income countries 1.1 -1.5 -2.5 -0.5 1.6 0.3 1.4 -146 .. .. -183 .. .. Industrial countries 1.1 -1.5 -2.5 -0.5 1.6 0.3 1.4 -216 .. .. -254 .. .. United States 1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -0.9 2.3 0.6 1.6 -419 -484 -562 -492 -457 -537 Japan 0.4 -1.7 -3.8 -0.2 1.1 -0.1 0.6 200 192 231 212 111 211 Euro Area 1.1 -1.4 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 0.1 1.2 -19 .. -8 -12 .. -4 United Kindgom 0.8 -2.2 -3.2 -1.1 0.6 -1.1 0.9 -48 -29 -35 -44 -22 -50 Other high income 2.6 -0.8 -3.6 .. 3.0 1.2 .. 70 .. .. 71 .. .. Hong Kong (China) 2.9 -1.3 -4.7 .. 2.6 0.2 .. 20 .. .. 21 .. .. Singapore 2.0 -2.4 -7.2 .. 3.5 1.8 .. 26 .. .. 26 .. .. Taiwan (China) 2.1 -1.1 -3.5 .. 3.1 1.1 .. 25 .. .. 25 .. .. Developing countries 6.2 3.6 2.3 .. 5.0 4.3 .. 120.8 .. .. 166.8 .. .. East Asia and Pacific 8.4 6.4 4.8 .. 7.6 6.3 .. 371.8 .. .. 368.7 .. .. China 9.3 7.4 6.0 .. 8.4 7.3 .. 338.6 0.3 437.2 332.1 0.3 472.4 Indonesia 6.1 4.0 1.9 .. 5.0 2.2 .. 3.2 .. .. 4.3 .. .. Thailand 4.3 1.1 -1.8 .. 3.7 2.2 .. 2.5 .. .. 4.2 .. .. Malaysia 5.3 1.4 -0.3 .. 4.3 2.8 .. 25.1 .. .. 25.5 .. .. .. Europe and Central Asia 4.5 0.4 0.0 .. 3.0 2.8 .. -117.3 .. .. -97.4 .. .. Russian Federation 6.7 1.1 1.0 .. 3.5 4.0 .. -9.1 .. .. 10.8 .. .. Turkey 1.6 -0.5 -1.5 1.6 3.2 1.7 4.2 -23.4 .. -40.0 -29.1 .. -41.7 Poland 5.1 1.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.6 3.5 -23.5 .. -29.3 -26.6 .. -31.3 Czech Republic 4.2 0.3 -1.4 2.5 2.3 1.9 4.4 -6.1 .. -6.0 -6.1 .. -7.1 Latin America and Caribbean 4.5 0.9 -0.4 .. 2.8 1.8 .. -70.2 .. .. -68.2 .. .. Brazil 5.5 1.7 1.6 .. 3.3 3.2 .. -24.6 .. .. -31.0 .. .. Mexico 1.7 -0.7 -1.8 0.4 2.2 1.4 1.8 -22.9 .. -29.5 -24.0 .. -31.5 Argentina 6.3 0.5 -2.7 .. 2.3 1.7 .. 1.5 .. .. 1.3 .. .. Colombia 3.5 2.4 -0.5 .. 3.3 1.5 .. -7.1 .. .. .. -6.8 .. .. Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 5.5 2.1 0.4 .. 3.9 3.3 .. 5.1 .. .. 23.1 .. .. Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 6.9 4.8 4.9 .. 4.3 4.5 .. -3.5 .. .. -4.2 .. .. Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Asia 6.4 6.2 4.6 .. 5.4 6.0 .. -48.9 .. .. -39.8 .. .. India 6.9 6.7 5.0 .. 5.6 6.6 .. -33.9 .. .. -24.0 -0.1 .. Pakistan 3.1 3.1 1.2 .. 4.2 3.1 .. -15.0 .. .. -15.8 .. .. Bangladesh 5.4 4.9 5.5 .. 5.5 3.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka 5.7 .. 3.2 .. .. 5.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 3.4 2.0 1.0 .. 3.7 3.1 .. -20.2 .. .. -21.2 .. .. Nigeria 6.1 5.6 3.5 .. 6.4 4.8 .. 3.9 .. .. .. 5.8 .. .. Memo: .. OECD 1.1 -1.4 -2.4 -0.4 1.6 0.3 1.4 -303 .. .. -349 .. .. Developing excl. China 4.9 2.0 0.8 .. 3.6 3.0 .. -217.9 .. .. -165.4 .. .. Developing oil exporters 5.7 2.7 0.4 .. 3.8 1.2 .. 14.8 .. .. 43.1 .. .. Developing non-oil exporters 6.2 3.7 2.5 .. 5.1 4.6 .. 105.9 .. .. 123.6 .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD. Regional Aggregates: Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VEN Europe and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR East Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA Middle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM South Asia: BGD,IND,PAK Sub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE Other Aggregates: OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USA Industrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USA Other High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVN Developing Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN