21980 Vol. 2 No.2 February 1995 FILE oG OP CONTENTS AND SUMMARY INTERNATIONAL LENDING agencies to downgrade the country's domes- AND CAPITAL MARKETS tic currency debt. Several sovereign credits, including Brazil and India, were upgraded * DEVELOPING-COUNTRY during the quarter, and Barbados, Pakistan, BORROWING PAGE 4 and South Africa received first-time ratings. Developing countries raised $19.6 billion in bonds and loans in the third quarter of 1994, about the same as in the first quarter. Al- EQUITY PORTFOLIO AND though bond issuance was higher in the FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT fourth quarter, rising US interest rates and widening spreads restrained some established * EMERGING STOCK MARKETS PAGE 10 borrowers. Toward the end of the quarter, The IFC's dollar-based composite index was Mexico's financial crisis aggravated the weak- down 12% in the fourth quarter of 1994 as ness of the primary issuc market. Neverthe- the financial crisis in Mexico spilled into less, the fourth quarter saw some new issues. other markets and continuing worries about South Africa returned to the international higher interest rates affected investor senti- bond market with a $750 million issue, and ment, especially in East Asian markets. Pakistan made a debut $150 million offering. * NEW EQUITIES, QUASI-EQUITIES, I GLOBAL BORROWING PAGE 6 AND DERIVATIVES PAGE 11 According to the OECD, $214 billion was Privatizations in East and South Asian econo- raised in international capital markets in the mies and demand for capital by firms in the third quarter of 1994, about the same as in the region fueled equity issues in the fourth second quarter. New syndicated lending was quarter. International equity issues for 1994 strong, fueled by increased economic activity were at a record $19.6 billion, despite diffi- in industrial countries. Fierce competition cult market conditions. among banks narrowed lending spreads. * FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT I COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS PAGE 8 AND PRIVATIZATION PAGE 14 Cross-border claims of BIS reporting banks Developing-country outward FDI is begin- (including local foreign currency lending) ning to rise, thanks in large part to invest- were lower by $78.7 billion in the second ment activity by East Asian companies. quarter of 1994. Claims on developing coun- Investments directed at industrial countries tries continued to increase, but lending was are motivated by a desire to establish a pres- concentrated in a handful of high-growth ence in these countries' markets. Several Asian economies. Developing countries saw countries report progress on privatization. project finance commitments rise in 1994, with infrastructure accounting for 40% of such funds. SECONDARY MARKETS FOR DEVELOPING- COUNTRY DEBT PAGE 15 * MARKET CREDITWORTHINESS PAGE 9 The sharp drop in the Mexican peso and In the fourth quarter a drop in investor con- accelerated capital oufflows raised concerns fidence pulled down secondary markets for about servicing of Mexico's near-term do- developing-country debt. Latin bonds were mestic debt obligations and prompted rating particularly hard hit. 2 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CONTENTS AND SUMMARY OFFICIAL FLOWS: Growth of Japanese banks' nonperforming - / MULTILATERAL AND loans slowed. B ILATERAL __ _ _._H. * MULTILATERAL FLOWS PAGE 16 FINANCIAL BRIEF: In the first quarter of 1995, the IMF approved INTEGRATION WITH WORLD its largest-ever financial package, a $17.8 bil- MARKETS REDUCES - lion stand-by credit facility for Mexico de- VOLATILITY OF EMERGING signed to restore confidence and to support EQUITY MARKETS PAGE 19 the country's stabilization plan. This is over and above commitments to Mexico of $20 A recent study shows that both liberalizing billionfrom the United Statesand$10billion capital markets and increasing the share of from the BIS. trade in GDP tend to reduce volatility of eq- uity returns in emerging stock markets. * BILATERAL ODA AND EXPORT CREDITS PAGE 17 STATISTICAL APPENDIX The Export-Import Bank of the United States provided $5.2 billion in financing and insur- * BANK AND TRADE-RELATED ance commitments to Latin America in fiscal NONBANK CLAIMS PAGE 21 1994. In the fourth uartei 1rI4ipan ex- .eMfanaI for * COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS tended a $300 million untie=4 "ft Africa. ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PAGE 22 Afrlca. ~ IWA [ M . R-DU2 99 . COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS DEBT RELIEF UPDATE ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN PAGE 23 * OFFICIAL CREDITORS PAGE 17 - - ~~~* MATURITIES OF BANK CLAIMS Paris Club creditors agreed in December to ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PAGE 27 enhance the concessionalitv of debt relief for the poorest countries through the Naples * FUNDS RAISED ON INTER- Terms, granting up to two-thirds debt or debt NATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS PAGE 28 service reduction. Guinea received Naples Terms from Paris Club creditors in January. * SECONDARY MARKET DEBT PRICES PAGE 29 * COMMERCIAL CREDITORS PAGE 18 * EMERGING STOCK MARKETS PAGE 30 Poland completed its DDSR in October, and Ecuador is expected to conclude its agree- * FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ment in spring 1995. FLOWS PAGE 31 * TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT PAGE 32 COMMERCIAL BANK PROVISIONING AND * AGGREGATE NET LONG-TERM CAPITAL ADEQUACY PAGE 18 RESOURCE FLOWS PAGE 33 US banks reported higher profits in the third * COUNTRY GROUPS PAGE 34 quarter of 1994, amid a surge in lending. FEBRUARY 1995 3 INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS DEVELOPING-COUNTRY TABLE 2 BORROWING BOND ISSUES BY TYPE OF BORROWER * DEVELOPING COUNTRIES RAISE $19.6 US$ millions BILLION IN MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM DEBT 1993 1994 Q3 Q4 IN THIRD QUARTER All developing countries 55,201 50,129 12,704 13,316 According to the OECD, developing coun- SubSaharanAfrica 18,304 22,008 5,325 5,882 tries raised $19.6 billion on international EastAsia and Pacific 4,547 8,604 1,815 1,966 bond and loan markets in the third quarter of South Asia 556 636 250 0 Europe and Central Asia 354 1,598 323 406 1994, up 17% from the previous quarter but Latin America and Caribbean 13,845 10,097 2,937 3,435 about the same as in the first quarter of 1993. Middle East and North Africa 0 0 0 0 Both bond and loan volumes expanded Sovereign 19,904 17,156 4,323 5,176 Sub-Saharan Africa 0 1,520 0 750 (table 1). Bond issues outpaced bank credit, East Asia and Pacific 907 2,399 1,210 0 however, with an increase to 56% of all funds South Asia 0 150 0 150 Europe and Central Asia 15,115 9,115 2,129 2,733 raised. East and South Asian borrowers in- Latin America and Caribbean 3,882 3,572 585 1,543 creasingly relied on loan financing-52% of Middle East and North Africa 0 400 400 0 the $11.4 billion raised. Most of the $3.3 bil- Other public 15,994 11,963 3,056 2,258 Sub-Saharan Africa 0 0 0 0 lion raised in the third quarter by Latin Amer- East Asia and Pacific 8,156 6,599 2,314 1,555 ican countries was bonds, as were most of the South Asia 0 300 0 0 Europe and Central Asia 928 1,062 642 97 borrowings by Eastern European and Central Latin America and Caribbean 6,910 4,003 100 607 Asian countries. Middle East and North Africa 0 0 0 0 Source: Euromoney Bondware and World Bank. * INVESTORS RETHINK DEVELOPING- COUNTRY RISK ON RISING INTEREST RATES raised key short-term interest rates (in mid- AND THE CRISIS IN MEXICO November) for the sixth time in less than a In the fourth quarter, financial markets were year, investors became more sensitive to unnerved by higher US interest rates and by credit quality and to the effects of higher in- the financial crisis in Mexico. As the Fed terest rates on borrowers' risk. As interna- tional investors withdrew from fixed-income TABLE I and equity markets, Mexico, which had re- INTERNATIONAL BORROWING BY SELECTED DEVELOPING lied heavily on international borrowing (es- COUNTRIES pecially short-term maturity debt, including US$ mil/ions 1992 1993 1 994Q2 i 994Q3 US dollar-linked debt), saw a massive capital Total Bonds Total Bonds Total Bonds Total Bonds outflow. It was forced to adjust the exchange Argentina 1,529.2 1,529.2 6,473,2 6,097.2 914.2 914.0 819.4 819.4 rate band of the peso, followed by a floating Brazil 3,010.0 2,830.0 6,449.4 6,120.4 287.8 62.8 424.6 424.6 of the currency. Investors, who suffered Chile 350.0 0 774.6 432.6 80.0 0 0 0 China 4,043.2 1,273.2 6,756:0 2,956.8 1,567.3 758.1 2,603.0 878.8 heavy (actual and potential) currency losses Czech Republica 39.5 15.5 902.6 702.6 250.0 250.0 62.9 0 on Mexican investments, worried about the Hungary 1,446.1 1,234.8 5,070.7 4,808.5 242.1 192.1 966.7 666.7 India 200.6 0 475.0 445.0 190.0 135.0 594.4 289.4 possibility of a similar crisis in other devel- Indonesia 2,641.2 611.0 3,726.0 1,725.9 1,518.0 1,125.0 2,182.5 660 oping countries heavily dependent on for- Korea 5,204.0 3,181.6 7,718.8 5,646.2 2,047.0 1,558.3 2,855.7 1,404.7 Malaysia 1,270.6 0 1,611.1 0 1,422.0 135.0 903.1 750.0 eign borrowing. Mexico 3,373.6 2,923.4 9,751.5 9,351.4 2,305.0 1,095.0 1,790.0 990.0 Pakistan 0 0 92.3 92.3 45.0 45.0 0 0 * BOND ISSUES HIGHER BUT REGIONAL Poland 8.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Thailand 2,718.3 646.1 5,550.4 2,166.5 1,451.1 179.1 1,925.4 951.6 TRENDS DIFFER SHARPLY Turkey 4,579.9 2,777.1 5,762.7 3,858.8 8.9 0 0 0 Venezuela 1,035.4 830.4 2,931.3 2,142.9 0 0 0 0 Zimbabwe 115.0 0 90.0 0 0 0 0 0 bond volume continued to strengthen at Note: Bonds include both international issues (euromarkets) and traditional foreign ssues. $13.3 billion, but for the year issues were 9% a. Data before April 1993 refer to Czechoslovakia. Source: OECD, Financial Stotistics (monthly), December 1994. below the 1993 record (table 2). The fourth 4 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS quarter saw different borrowing patterns meet resistance in the primary market. With across sectors and regions. Sovereign bor- a few exceptions, such as the Government of rowing was higher by a fifth, and issues by South Africa's $750 million flotation and private borrowers rose by 10%. Other public Argentina's $500 million bond, most issues borrowings, however, fell by a quarter. Latin were under $200 million, with an average size American issuers raised over 50% more of about $100 million. funds in the quarter, led by Argentina ($2.2 Despite interest rate uncertainty, invest- billion) and Brazil ($2.1 billion). But Mexi- ors appeared to favor fixed-rate issues over can fourth-quarter issues were depressed at floating-rate instruments. Fixed-rate instru- less than $500 million, even though Mexican ments gained market share at 71% of total borrowers headed the 1994 bond league bonds in the fourth quarter, compared with table with $6.2 billion. Asian bond volume 23% for floating-rate notes (figure 2). Con- was sharply lower (by 34%) in the quarter. vertible bond issues remained depressed, The biggest borrower was Korea ($1.5 bil- pulled down by the poor performance of un- lion), followed by Malaysia ($700) and China derlying stock markets. ($470 million). Elsewhere, South Africa and _ Hungary each raised more than $800 million FIGURE I in the fourth quarter. BOND ISSUES FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY MATURITY US$ biDions U ISSUERS FACE TIGHTER BORROWING CONDITIONS 50.1 Er 15years E2 11-15 years With rising interest rates, investors were in- El 6-JOyears creasingly sensitive to credit risk, and the pri- 1 I-5 years mary issue market saw more generous spreads. Some high-profile issues had to con- cede pricing at the high end of their pro- posed spread range. Borrowing spreads on 12.7 13.3 US dollar-denominated fixed-rate issues av- eraged 315 bp in the fourth quarter, almost 50 bp higher than on third-quarter borrow- 1994 994Q3 1994Q4 ings and 130 bp higher than first-quarter lev- Suce. Ejromoney Bondware and World Bank els. At 370 bp, the Latin American primary issue market saw a 100 bp widening of spreads in 1994. For example, average FIGURE 2 spreads on Mexican borrowings rose from BOND ISSUES FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY TYPE under 200 bp in the first quarter to 370 bp in us$ bilions the fourth quarter. Argentine borrowers, 50. 1 who were particularly active in the fourth _ Floating-rate quarter saw a 100 bp widening of spreads EIC Convertible quarter, U Fixed-rate over the year. _ _ The flattening of the US dollar yield curve in 1994 meant that investors continued to favor short-dated instruments, and average maturities remained at about six years (fig- 12.7 13.3 ure 1). Brazilian issues were well below this average, with the majority of the issues being -U at maturities of three years. With investors 1994 /994Q3 1994Q4 favoring small issues, large ones appeared to sEuron re ann Word Bank. FEBP(JARU it99r 5 INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS FIGURE 3 In the fourth quarter the yen fixed- try's presidential elections, there were more CURRENCY income sector saw highissue volumes, partof issues too by Brazilian borrowers (mainly COMPOSITION OF BOND ISSUES, a global trend of increased foreign bor- banks), despite an increase in the tax (finan- 1 994Q4 rowing in euroyen in 1994. Losses on foreign cial operations tax) on new bond issues from East and South Asia currency-denominated securities have 3% to 7%. Pricing deterred some Mexican ($3.7 billion) prompted Japanese investors to repatriate issuers, and difficult market conditions Others 1% Swfr 1% funds and increase short-run demand for forced withdrawal of an eight-year, $300 mil- Jj~'\Yen 23% yen-denominated securities. At the same lion securitized deal (secured by receipts) to L 2 time, long-term borrowers have found low finance the Tepic-Guadalajara toll road pro- domestic interest rates attractive. Borrowers ject after it had been priced. Colombia's US dolhars 75% from developing Europe and East Asia raised Centragas, however, issued a 16-year, $172 substantial yen funds (figure 3). million project finance bond, with Ecopetrol Latin America ($5.6 billion) assuming all force majeure risk. Others5% DM 6% * BROADER RANGE OF ISSUERS IN THE MARKET U FOREIGN INVESTORS LEAVE MEXICO'S :% >In the fourth quarter investors focused on DOMESTIC DEBT MARKET US dollars 79% new credits. South Africa returned to the in- With the market reevaluating Mexican risk ternational bond market, and Pakistan had a following the peso's sharp depreciation, for- debut offering. South Africa's five-year, $750 eign investors were apparently reluctant to Europe and Central million global issue was reportedly raised roll over holdings of government domestic Asia ($3.2 billion) Others 14% from a planned $500 million; more than half debt securities. Government auctions on the US dollars 25% o of the issue, priced at 193 bp over compara- heels of the currency crisis met with a luke- IIIIIIIIIIII11DM /3% ble US Treasuries, was placed with US in- wanr respoInse, witl only 10% being taken vestors. South African companies are now up and a near doubling of yields. (Since Mex- Yen 48% poised to enter the market. Pakistan's debut ico obtained a large official finance package, five-year, $150 million offering also estab- confidence has returned.) The government Source: Furomoney Bondwfare and World Bank. lished a benchmark for potential domestic securities market in Mexico is large (294 bil- borrowers. The issue had a launch spread of lion pesos), with foreign investors account- 385 bp. In the first euromarket issue by an ing for 28% of outstandings (according to Eastern European corporation, Czech Elec- Banco de Mexico, December 22). Most of the tric Utility offered a five-year, $150 million market is short-maturity instruments, namely issue at a launch spread of 110 bp. Also in the Tesobonos and Cetes. Tesobonos, dollar-de- quarter, Saudi Arabia made a $272 million nominated securities with peso returns, pro- securitized issue. vide investors currency protection. Because Despite higher borrowing costs, there was of this feature, Tesobonos gained popularity a surge in issues by Argentine entities in the among foreign investors in 1994, and the fourth quarter. The government raised $1.1 market share of these securities rose from billion in international bond markets and in 15% at the end of 1993 to 65% at the end of various currencies, including the French 1994. Foreigners held 34% of outstandings franc, the peseta, and the yen. Launch in December 1994. spreads on Argentine issues widened, how- ever, reflecting difficult market conditions: the government's five-year, $500 million GLOBAL BORROWING global issue of October had a launch spread of 350 bp over comparable US Treasuries, U INVESTOR CONCERNS SUBDUE and Telefonica de Argentina's 10-year, $300 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS million Yankee bond of November had a According to the OECD, $214 billion was launch spread of 435 bp. Following the coun- raised on world capital markets in the third 6 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS quarter of 1994, the same as in the second The yen sector remained strong as quarter but slightly higher than a year ago Japanese investors favored local currency- (table 3). At $102 billion, bond issues denominated securities and borrowers recovered only partially from the second- sought low yields. Foreign borrowers have quarter decline, and issuance was subdued been particularly attracted to the euroyen as continuing interest rate uncertainty and sector because of an easing of regulations in inflation concerns reined in primary market early 1994. The yen sector accounted for activity. Fixed-rate issues were $80 billion 25% of bond volume in the third quarter. (79% of bond issues), fueled by large fixed- The US dollar was the most active currency rate yen-denominated borrowing. Rising sector; at 35%, this sector added 6 percent- interest rates pulled up the share of floating- age points to its total market share. Several rate securities. Medium-term note facilities European currency sectors saw lower issue volume rose, as borrowers favored the flexi- volumes, however. The French franc sector's bility provided by such instruments. The share fell from almost 10% to under 3% and quarter also saw considerable global bond sterling's from 7% to 6%. Exceptions were activity, the Swiss currency sector, which more than Corporate bond issues were below first- doubled to over 6%, and the deutschemark quarter levels, and public-sector borrowing sector, which was unchanged at 7%. Market remained moderate. With credit markets share of the Canadian dollar was also lower. appearing more attractive, there was some switching by corporate borrowers. Banks * NEW SYNDICATED LENDING REMAINS continued to be major bond issuers. Al- STRONG though bond issues by governments (includ- After more than doubling in the second ing state and local) have fallen below 1993 quarter, syndicated lending was lower in the levels, this sector accounted for over 20% of third quarter. With declining refinancing, borrowing in international bond markets in however, new syndicated lending remained the first three quarters of the year. The third strong. At an estimated $73.5 billion in the quarter saw US federal agencies (Freddie first nine months of 1994, new lending is well Mac, Federal Home Loan Bank, Sallie Mae) above the corresponding period of 1993 and raise over $3 billion as they returned to the could be heading toward the highs of international bond markets after several 1988-90. Syndicated loans accounted for years of inactivity. 17% of total funds raised on international markets in the third quarter. Strengthening TABLE 3 economies in most major industrial coun- INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKET FLOWS tries are fueling commercial and industrial U5$ bllions company loan demand. These, as well as Instrument 1991 1992 1993 i994Q2 1994Q3 increased mergers and acquisitions, are Bonds 308.7 333.7 481.0 86.6 102.4 expected to keep loan demand high. Equity 23.4 23.5 40.7 16.0 8.0 Syndicated loans 116.0 117.9 136.7 51.9 36.6 Fierce competition among banks has re- NIF' and other sulted in a sharp drop in the cost of funds for back-up facilities 7.7 6.7 8.2 2. 1.4 borrowers. Spreads for A-rated borrowers ECP5 and other non- underwritten faci ities 80.2 127.9 152.0 56.9 65.5 have almost halved, from around 40 bp over Total 536.0 609.7 818.6 213.5 213.9 LIBOR a year ago to 20 to 25 bp. Moreover, Flows to developing standard financial covenants on loan agree- countries' (percent) 9.1 8.0 11.5 1 0.0 dII .5d ments have eased and bank participation fees a. Note rssuance facilities. have been squeezed. The average spreads on b. Eurocommercial paper. c. Including Eastern European countries. international bank loans were 78 bp in the d. Estimate. Source: OECD. FmnonciolMerket Trends. first nine months of 1994, compared with 81 FEBRUARY 1995 7 INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS bp in the same period of 1993. Spreads on was a concentration of lending in high- OECD countries were lower at 74 bp, as were growth countries. BIS banks' claims on those on developing countries at 100 bp. At China surged by $5.2 billion, following a $2.9 five years, average maturities were longer billion fall in the first quarter. South Korea than a year ago. continued to draw on bank loans, and re- porting banks' claims rose by $4.4 billion. Credits to Thailand expanded, fueled by COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS both a strong economy and growth in the country's offshore facilities, and claims rose * BIS BANKS' CROSS-BORDER CLAIMS by $3.7 billion. Claims on other Asian bor- CONTINUE TO CONTRACT IN SECOND rowers, however, were unchanged or fell. QUARTER Latin American countries saw a $3.3 bil- Cross-border and local foreign currency lion second-quarter decline in reporting claims of BIS reporting banks fell by $78.7 bil- banks' international claims. This, however, lion in the second quarter of 1994 and by masked divergent trends within the region. $89.6 billion in the first half of the year. Net Following completion of Brazil's commercial loan repayments by nonbank customers, bank debt reduction agreement, BIS banks' along with a scaling back of interbank busi- claims on Brazil fell by $6.2 billion. Also ness, accounted for the decline. Following a lower were claims on Venezuela. By contrast, $100 billion increase in the first quarter, net several countries recorded increases in bank international bank credit (or lending) de- lending. Claims on Argentina rose by $1.5 clined by $15 billion. New syndicated credit billion, those on Mexico by $870 million, and facilities surged to $64.5 billion, a 20% in- those on Colombia by $660 million. For the crease over the first quarter of 1994 but below seventh consecutive quarter, claims on East- the second quarter of 1993. ern Europe and the former Soviet Union International claims of banks in Japan fell contracted (by $180 million). Accelerated by $16.9 billion (not adjusted for exchange payments ahead of its debt reduction agree- rate changes). Also lower, by $17.1 billion, ment were behind the $555 million decline were claims of banks located in the United in claims on Poland. Reporting banks' claims States. Banks in Europe saw a decline in in- on Bulgaria were lower by $312 million, and ternationalclaims, led bya$21.1 billion drop those on Hungary fell by $190 million. By in claims of banks in France. contrast, several republics of the former Soviet Union saw an increase in BIS bank * BIS BANKS' EXPOSURE TO DEVELOPING claims. Claims on the Middle East were COUNTRIES HIGHER IN SECOND QUARTER ON higher by $2 billion, but those on Africa slid LENDING TO ASIAN COUNTRIES by $371 million. BIS banks' outstanding claims (not adjusted The rise in claims was paralleled by a big for exchange rate changes) on developing increase (of $12 billion) in deposits. All re- countries (including Eastern Europe and the gions saw net additions to deposits at report- former Soviet Union) jumped by $11.3 ing banks. Deposits of Chinese residents billion in the second quarter of 1994, the climbed by $4.5 billion, and South Koreans third consecutive quarterly increase. Region- added $2.1 billion to deposits. Malaysian res- al trends diverged sharply as lending contin- idents withdrew $3.2 billion in deposits, how- ued to be heavily focused on the developing ever. Among Latin American residents, Peru countries of Asia. Claims on Asian borrowers led with a $2.1 billion increase in deposits surged by $13.1 billion, following a $7.2 bil- due to a rise in foreign exchange reserves, lion increase in the first quarter. but both Argentina and Mexico drew down But even among Asian borrowers, there deposits offsetting some of the fall in foreign 8 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS (table 4). World Bank guarantees enable bor- TABLE S PROJECT FINANCE, 1994 rowers to tap international markets at terms SOVEREIGN FOREIGN PROJECT FINANCE, 1994 ~~~~~~~~CURRENCY DEBT US$ billions previously unavailable-that is, longer matu- Long-tem raing, as o January rities and lower interest rateS-or cover risks 1995a Total: $22.7 billion private lenders are unwilling to assume. They Moody's S&P Other infrstructure 1.5 Telecommuications 6.5% are particularly well suited to large infra- Investmentgrade structure projects, which require long matu- Chile Baa2 BBB+/ [F'\ rities to match project cash flows with debt China A3 BBB/ Power 25.7% service. A-22 Colombia Bal BBB-2 Cyprus n.a. AA- Noninfrastructure 63.8% Czech Republic Baa2 BBB+2 Greece Baa3 BBB-- MARKET CREDITWORTHINESS India Baa3 BB+I Indonesia Baa3 BBB_2 Source Euromoney Loanware and World sank. Korea, Rep. of Al A+2 * RATING AGENCIES REASSESS MEXICAN Malaysia- A2 A+/ RISK; SEVERAL CREDITS IMPROVEAA. portfolio flows. Saudi Arabian residents' de- Malta A2 Al posits fell by $2 billion, a decline of $11.8 Major rating agencies responded to the fi- Portugal Al AA-/ AM"~ billion for the year ending June 1994. Resi- nancial crisis in Mexico by lowering ratings South Africa Baa3 BB2 dents of Eastern Europe and the former So- on domestic currency debt (table 5). This Thailand A2 Al viet Union saw a buildup in deposits of $1.4 downgrading reflects the impact of depreci- Beiow invesment grade Argentina B I RB-2 billion. ation of the peso on public debt and debt- Barbados Ba2 n.a. service ratios. On December 23 Standard and Hungary B I B2 * PROJECT FINANCE TO DEVELOPING Poorr's lowered the rating of Mexico's peso Mexico`n Ba2/ BB*/ COUNTRIES RISES debt and put the rating on CreditWatch with Pakistan Baa3 A Annual project finance lending commit- negative implications: long-term debt low- Philippines Ba3 BR3- BBB*2 ments to developing countries, at $22.7 bil- ered from AA- to A+, and short-term debt Slovakia n.a, BB-[ lion, were 16% higher in 1994. Almost 40% lowered from A-1+ to A-1. It also placed the Tandad and Tobago Ba2 n.e. of the funds were in support of infrastruc- BB+ rating of Mexico's long-term foreign Turkey Ba3 B+1 ture, especially power projects and, to a lesser currency debt on CreditWatch with negative Uruguay Bal BB+ Venezuela Ba2 B-i- extent, telecommunications (figure 4). The implications but removed it from Credit- The first rating app ies to fore gn share of oil and gas projects, however, was Watch in February. Although Moody's con- currency debt and the second to domestic currency debt, also large at 22%. There was some improve- firmed the long-term foreign currency ** The outlook for domestc cur- rency debt is stable. ment in borrower terms, with loan size aver- sovereign rating (of Ba2), it lowered the rat- n.a. Not applicable. aging $120 million and average maturity at ings on domestic currency debt onJanuary 6. aFebruaryin for Mexico is as of eight years. Lending commitments tended Ratings on Bondes were lowered from Baal i. Stable outlook. 2. Post,ve outlook. to be heavily concentrated in a handful of to Baa3, and on short-term instruments, such 3, Negative outlook. high-credit countries in East Asia, with this region accounting for almost 60% of all pro- TABLE 4 ject financing. The sharesthatwenttodevel- PROJECT FINANCE WITH WORLD BANK GUARANTEES, 1994 oping countries in Europe and Central Asia Financial and in Latin America were 20% and 10%, Project Project cost Mcatunty/spread closurea Hub Power Project, US$1.8 billion 12 years/base facil ty: Closed 12/94 respectively. Pakistan (private sector) 2.0%, yrs 1-8: World Bank guarantees played a signifi- LIBOR + 2.25% thereafter. cant role in catalyzing private capital flows to Standby facility: LIBOR + 2.25%, yrs 1-8: LIBOR + several infrastructure projects in developing 2.75% thereafter. countries. Such guarantees supported the Rockfort Private Power US$130 million N/A Closed 10/94 Project, Jamaica $1.8 billion Hub Power Project in Pakistan (private sector) and the $130 million Rockport Private Power Note: For limited-recourse project finance. a. When all project legal documentat on s executed and funds become available to the borrower. Project in Jamaica, among other projects Source: World Bank. FEBRUARY 1 995 9 INTERNATIONAL LENDING AND CAPITAL MARKETS as Cetes and Tesobonos, from Prime-2 to Thailand's long-term foreign currency debt Prime-3, with the Prime-3 rating under re- rating from A- to A. view for a possible downgrade. The fourth quarter also saw some first- Several credits improved in the fourth time ratings. As Pakistan readied to access quarter. In November Moody's upgraded the international bond markets, its sovereign Brazil's long-term foreign currency debt debt was rated by the major international from B2 to BI. The move, which affects about agencies. S&P gave its long-term foreign cur- $7.9 billion of debt, raises the ratings on the rency debt a B+ on November 21, and interest due and unpaid bonds and on the Moody's followed on November 23 with a guaranteed floating rate new money bonds Ba3 rating. The ratings reflect Pakistan's issued in 1988. The higher rating reflects wide-ranging refonns, including liberalizing progress on economic reforms and expecta- trade and foreign investment, deregulating tions that the new administration will con- financial markets, and rationalizing the pub- solidate these reforms. In December S&P lic sector. Barbados received a first-time gave an implied B rating to Brazil's long-term sovereign rating from Moody's in December, foreign currency debt (the rating is below when its $50 million global medium-term that awarded by Moody's). Moody's up- note program was rated Ba2. The rating is graded India's long-term foreign currency based on the country's commitment to eco- debt from Ba2 to Baa3 (investment grade) nomic reform, including trade liberalization in December. The improved rating reflects and tax reform. Earlier in the quarter, South India's successful structural adjustment pro- Africa received a split rating as Moody's as- gram, which has boosted economic growth, signed the country a Baa3 investment-grade encouraged exports, and attracted foreign rating and S&P assigned a BB subinvestment- equity investment. Also in December, S&P grade rating. Philippines long-term peso- moved Malaysia's long-term foreign currency denominated debt received an implied BBB debt up a notch to A+. Moody's has placed rating from S&P in November, based on the the country's sovereign debt rating on review country's ability to service local currency for possible upgrade. Meanwhile, S&P raised obligations. EQUITY PORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 4th EMERGING STOCK MARKETS ter. Especially hard hit were Argentina and Quarter Quarter EMEXICO'S FINANCIAL CRISISANDBrazil, with December declines of 13.3% and 1994_ * MEXICO'S FINANCIAL CRISIS AND 6%, respectively. Elsewhere, Chile was down IFCG price index, percentoge CONTINUING INTEREST RATE CONCERNS 4.9% and Peru 0.3% in the month. changein US$ PULL DOWN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS Also contributing to the widespread weak- Since one Since last Emerging stock markets, which had per- ness of emerging markets in the fourth quar- year ago quarter -41.7 -39.2 formed unevenlyin the first three quarters of ter (and for most of 1994), was continuing 1994, were sharply lower in the fourth quar- investor uncertainty over US interest rates. ter (figure 5). The currency crisis in Mexico As rates continued to move up, the relative spilled into other markets on investor con- attractiveness of emerging-market equities cerns over the potential for similar difficul- declined and US investors, who had been ties in other developing countries. As major purchasers of emerging-market equi- Mexican share prices tumbled 35.2% in De- ties in 1993, began pulling money back into cember, mostly in the second half of the the United States. The IFC's Asia index lost month, major markets in the region saw large 6.2% in November as most of the region's declines. The IFC's Latin America index lost markets fell. Large fallswere registered by eq- 16.9% in December and 21.5% for the quar- uity markets in Indonesia (down 10.1%), 10 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EQUITY PORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Malaysia (down 9.2%), and Thailand (down eign portfolio investment in Russia grew in 4th 12.2%). This was due mainly to weak foreign 1994, from a negligible amount to $1.5 bil- Quarter 1994 investor participation and a switching of lion, the market is still at an early stage of de- -_____ funds by domestic investors in favor of do- velopment. The Law on Securities and Stock IFCG price index, percentoge mestic fixed-income securities, as domestic Markets was passed in October, but there are change in US$ yields have risen in tandem with US interest gaps in the market's legal foundation. There Since one Since last year ago quarter rates. are no legally enforceable requirements for +6.5 -9.2 On the Indian stock market, net pur- adequate disclosure of financial information chases by foreign investors amounted to by the share issuer, and custodial arrange- $10.9 million in November, compared to an ments and registration of shares remain a average of $200 million in each of the previ- problem, as do clearing and settlement. ous six months. The Indian stock market was hit also by a flood of new equity by private corporations, as well as shares from the sale NEW EQUITIES, QUASI- of publicly controlled enterprises. Local EQUITIES, AND DERIVATIVES (state) election results pulled the market fur- ther down, and Indian share prices fell by * US INVESTORS BUY FEWER FOREIGN 9.2% in the fourth quarter. Local factors STOCKS were also behind the poor performance of US investors purchased net $32.2 billion of Chinese shares. Investor concerns over a reg- international equities in the first three quar- ulatoryframeworkfor securities markets (the ters of 1994, half the amount for 1993. Al- authorities are working on a new securities though third-quarter purchases of overseas law), economic prospects, and enterprise stocks were sharply lower at $3.7 billion, pur- debt depressed prices. Despite measures last August to prop up the market, both the A- and B-share markets lost ground in the FIGURE 5 H 4th fourth quarter. In Korea shares fell by 6.5% SELECTED EMERGING STOCK MARKETS Since one Since last Quarter in December despite the recent easing of the IFCG price index, percentage change in US$ year ago quarter 1994 ceiling on foreign participation to 12% from _ . - -. 10%, and inJanuary net portfolio investment in the Korean stock market was -$330 million on Mexico-linked effects. -25.0 -23.3 +67.0 -13.1 -34.7 -21.5 Elsewhere, Poland's stock market was down 16.9% in the quarter and remained LI _ 1_ well below its February peak, but South Africa's market posted a gain of 8.7%. In an- ticipation of the opening of the Nairobi Stock Exchange to foreigners in January 1995, share prices were bid up by speculative -20.6 -6.9 + 16.3 n -9.2 -23.3 -14.8 pressure (between mid- and end-December, prices rose nearly 30% in local terms). The market is small, with 56 listed companies, a market capitalization of only $2.2 billion, and daily trading volume generally below +28.5 $150,000. In Russia, one of the newer destinations -1.l -0.7 +87 -13.1 -9.0 for portfolio flows, several market indexes IU___ have sprung up. Although the stock of for- Source Internatona Fnance Corporaton data. FEBRUARY 1 995 11 EQUITY PCRTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT chases of developing-country shares virtually to attract Asian companies, including those doubled to $2.5 billion, much of that going from fast-growing emerging markets, to list into Asian equities. For the first three quar- on the exchange. The easing of reporting re- ters developing countries attracted net $6.5 quirements, reduced listing costs, lowering billion compared with $13.6 billion in 1993. of requirements on size of companies (from Over those nine months, most of the funds net assets of Y100 billion to Y10 billion), and went to countries in Latin America. Among past profitability are intended to attract the non-bank financial institutions that are look- region's smaller companies to list. ing for greater geographic diversification, long-term investment in developing markets U STRONG DEMAND FOR CAPITAL FUELS will continue, as their portfolios are still un- EQUITY ISSUANCE derweight in emerging market securities. In Despite difficult market conditions, fourth- the near term, however, concerns over rising quarter equity issues spurted to $6.4 billion, interest rates in the United States and the re- a 28% increase over the previous quarter (fig- cent problems in Mexico will keep many in- ure 6). Mainly because of privatizations, East vestors cautious. and South Asian issuers accounted for 80% As US and other investors favored deposi- of the funds raised in the fourth quarter. tary receipts (DRs), issue volume surged, China raised $625 million of a total $1.5 with 285 companies from 43 countries billion from the corporatization of Huaneng launching programs in 1994 (according to Power International. Indonesia raised $1.3 Citibank). Issuers raised over $20 billion, an billion, of which $1.05 billion came from the 81 % increase over the previous year; at $248 sale of shares in PT Indonesian Satellite Cor- billion, traded volumes of American deposi- poration, the country's first privatization tory receipts (ADRs) were also higher, by with an international offering. Indian com- 24%. Emerging market issuers, which have panies raised more than $700 million, partly turned increasingly to international equity helped by the country's privatization pro- markets, accounted for more than 66% of gram, which is attracting foreign investors. the capital raised through DRs and 56% of all Indian GDRs continue to be priced at a big such programs. Indian issuers led the way, discount to the underlying share price, how- with 43 companies launching programs. Also ever. Following the relaxation of domestic active were companies from South Africa, restrictions on overseas equity financing, Brazil, and Mexico. Countries issuing DRs for the first time included Ecuador, Ghana, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, Sri Lanka, and INTERNATIONAL EQUITY ISSUES, Uruguay. BY REGION According to Nomura, Japanese investors US$ billions have $13 billion invested in Asian equities 19.6 Other through local mutual funds, $1 billion LI Latin America through foreign overseas funds, and $3.6 bil- East and South Asia lion through custodial services of Japan se- curities dealers. Direct equity is also increasing. Several Asian stock markets saw significant capital inflows from Japan in the _ 6.4 second half of 1994: Malaysia pulled in $215 million and Thailand $55 million between July and November. The easing of listing re- quirements on the Tokyo Stock Exchange 1994 1994Q3 1994Q4 that took effect in January 1995 is designed Source Euromoney Bonwarneand Wor dBank. 12 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EQUITY PORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Korean companies raised $600 million, all of nies were also active in international mar- TABLE 6 it through listings on the New York Stock kets, raising $1.1 billion. At $2.9 billion, DEVELOPING Exchange. Chinese companies continued to raise sub- COUNTRIES' BEST- PERFORM ING Latin American issuers continued to stantial sums in equity markets in 1994, as did CLOSED-END struggle in the fourth quarter, raising only companies from Thailand ($1.1 billion). EQUITY FUNDS $1.2 billion (a five-quarter low). Chilean Mexican and Argentine companies strug- Average companies raised $300 million or so through gled, however, to raise funds in international return i 994Q4 four issues, including a $53 million capital- equity markets in 1994, and many deals were Market (percent) raising ADR by Vina Concha y Toro. Another postponed or withdrawn. Africa (6) i.23 Latin American ADR issue was by Argentina's Emerging Europe (7) 0.74 SOKMUTUAL FUNDS DOWN IN A Thailand (I4) -0.26 MetroGas, with a $121.6 million offering in VietNam(4) 0.11 November of the government's 20% stake. VOLATILE YEAR Midale East (4) -0.72 Philippines (5) -1.08 The sale met with weak demand (the domes- Total returns of diversified US stock mutual Portugal (6) -1.3 1 tic tranche was halved) and prices fell in the funds were -1.3% in the fourth quarter and Chile (5) -2.45 Asia (25) -2.74 secondary market, reportedly prompting the were -1.7% for the year (according to Lip- Malaysia/Singapore (7) -3.49 postponement (again) of an offering of per). Total returns on emerging-market China (1 6) -4.47 India (I2) -4.83 Transportadora del Gas del Norte. funds plunged to -13.4% in the quarter and Indonesia(l 1) -5.16 Even as some established issuers strug- -9.6% over the year. Latin America funds, South Korea(13) -5.99 gled, there were new developing-country en- which seesawed between worst and best- Emerging global (26) -7.34 trants in international equity markets in the performing funds throughout the year, were Turkey (3) -8.51 fourth quarter. A $20 million offering (35% the worst-performing funds in the fourth Lussa(2) -10.06 of the company) by Red October marked quarter, with average returns of -23.9% in Mexico (3) -35.89 the firstinternational capital raising byaRus- the quarter and -14% in the year (tables 6 Note As of December 30, 1994 Figures in parentheses are numnber sian company. Several Russian companies and 7). Despite volatile returns, several new of funds in category Source: Lipper Internasional Closed- are seeking ADR programs. In the first funds were launched in the quarter, with new End Funds Service. international placement of shares for a Ro- closed-end equity funds raising $600 million. manian company, Societatea R. raised $1.5 TABLE 7 million from institutional investors. A Czech U SMALLER EMERGING MARKETS CONTINUE DEVELOPING- company, Bonton, raised 280 million koruny TO ATTRACT FUNDS COUNTRY FUNDS ToP FIVE DISCOUNTS ($9.5 million) through a private equity High return-seeking investors hoping to AND PREMIUMS placement. gain from early entry in newly opening mar- Percentage difference between net For the whole of 1994, developing-coun- kets and from participation in markets less Perce Percentage try international equity issues hit a peak of sensitive to global events are behind the difference $19.6 billion, remarkable given the sharp re- growth in fund activity. Two new Russia funds Largest discounts bound in US interest rates and investor cau- were announced. The Eastern Capital Fund Genesis Chile Fund Ltd. -40.66 Thai Asset Fund Ltd. -35.94 tion. Boosted by privatizations, East and aims to raise $50 million for investment in Thai Prime Fund Ltd. -35.92 South Asian countries were the biggest is- Russia, and the First Russian Frontiers Trust Five Arrows Chile Investment Trust Ltd. -34.63 suers in 1994 at $12.2 billion, followed by hopes to raise $60 million for investment Thailand International Latin America with $6 billion, Europe and in Russia, as well as Bulgaria, Romania, Fund Ltd. -32.78 Central Asia with $820 million, and Sub-Sa- Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Elsewhere, a $25 Largest premiums haran Africa with $640 million. In Indi, 44 million closed-end fund, the Bangladesh Herzfeld Caribbean haranAfria wih $64 milion.InInia, 44 mlincoe-n ud h agaeh Basin Fund Inc. 34.02 companies raised more than $3 billion, com- Fund, and a new open-end Pakistan fund, Indonesia Fund Inc. 30.72 Mexico Equity and pared with $340 million in the previous year. GEM NIT Pakistan Opportunities Fund, Income Fund Inc. 28.77 At $1.5 billion each, issues by Brazilian and were launched. Another Viet Nam fund also Emerging Mexico Indonesian companies also spurted in 1994. appeared. The fund's target is a minimum of Fund Incv 26.45 Pakistani companies raised $1.2 billion, led $50 million for investing in capital projects. Fund Inc. 18.42 by the privatization of Pakistan Telecommu- Funds investing in small capitalization Note: As of December 30, 1994. Source: Lipper Intersational Closed- nications Corporation. Philippine compa- markets can face difficulties of too much End Funds Service. FEBRUARY 1995 13 EQUITY PCORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT money chasing too few shares. The traded year. Three-quarters of these investments portion of the market is often small, and it is came out of East Asia, notably from China, difficult to find enough liquid shares in which emerged as the largest outward in- which to invest. In such cases, venture or di- vestor in the developing world (on the basis rect investment funds can provide an alter- of balance of payments figures). The re- native to listed shares. In larger markets too, mainder is accounted for primarily by Latin the problem of size can be encountered by America. Brazil became a net outward in- specialization or sector funds. There are fre- vestor in 1993. quently few companies in a sector, making it In recent months several East Asian com- difficulttoformawell-diversifiedsectorfund. panies have announced plans to invest not As Latin funds continue to grow, some only in Asia, but also in high-income coun- new funds are also beginning to target do- tries. Cost is less important for developing- mestic investors. In October Scudder country transnational corporations investing launched a fund aimed at attracting Brazilian in Europe and North America. Their main investors. The Bradesco Fundo de Investi- objective is simply to establish a presence to mento no Exterior will be invested 60% in service these markets. These considerations dollar-denominated Brazilian sovereign debt were reportedly behind Samsung's recent and 40% in other country (including Latin) decision to invest $723 million in a UK man- fixed-income securities. Among other fund ufacturing plant. Also to access the European activity, the Montgomery Emerging Commu- market, South Korea's Daewoo Electronics is nications fund is hoping to raise $100 million planning a chip factory in Poland. Intra-re- for investing in potential high-growth com- gional investments among developing Asian munications sectors in emerging countries. economies are triggered, among other fac- tors, by cost considerations. * FINANCIAL FUTURES TO MANAGE DEVELOPING-COUNTRY RISK U SEVERAL COUNTRIES REPORT PROGRESS The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is plan- ON PRIVATIZATIONS ning to launch Mexican peso-based futures. Latvia is hoping to move fast on privatization. The futures contract, which will be settled in Under an international tender program, it dollars, avoids the problem of physical deliv- put up 45 companies for sale in November. ery of pesos. The peso contracts would pro- Latvia is also being assisted by the World vide investors with an instrument to manage Bank in a voucher privatization scheme de- risk of investments and transactions in pesos. signed to auction local companies. The Mexico has recently allowed the creation of EBRD is also helping to sell 10 companies. a market in inflation- and interest rate- Elsewhere in the region, the Czech Republic linked futures contracts. completed the second and final wave of pri- vatization through voucher sales. A reported 6.2 millioil people took part, and 353 priva- FDI AND PRIVATIZATION tization funds were established. Poland is also making progress on bank privatization. * OUTWARD FDI FROM DEVELOPING In Slovakia, residents have registered for the COUNTRIES INCREASES second round of privatization, although the Just as developing countries are receiving a recent change in government has thrown greater share of inflows of foreign direct in- things off schedule. Concern that foreign in- vestment, outward FDI from these countries vestors could control enterprises in some is rising. FDI from developing countries strategic sectors of the economy is apparently reached almost $10 billion in 1993, repre- prompting Russia's main privatization senting an increase of 39% over the previous agency, the State Property Committee, to 14 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EQUITY PORTFOLIO AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT draft a law to retain state control of compa- has also announced that it plans more priva- nies in such sectors. tizations this year. Elsewhere, Morocco is As part of a comprehensive economic pressing ahead with its privatization pro- program, the Mexican authorities are seek- gram, and Turkey's parliament approved a ing to boost privatizations in 1995. Argentina framework for a privatization law. SECONDARY MARKETS FOR DEVELOPING-COUNTRY DEBT U SECONDARY MARKETS FOR DEBT HIT BY nombank seesawed in the fourth quarter on SELL-OFF both external and domestic news. The sec- With the loss in investor confidence follow- ondary market for these loans was buoyed in ing the December 20 devaluation of the Mex- the early part of the quarter thanks to ican peso, there was a sharp widening of progress on a debt restructuring agreement spreads in the secondary market for debt, es- between Russia and its commercial bank pecially Latin American debt. Latin Ameri- creditors. But domestic political and eco- can Brady bonds, which had been hit in 1994 nomic difficulties, combined with rising US by rising US interest rates and local factors, interest rates and problems in Mexico, de- fell to new lows. Brady bond (pars) prices lost pressed prices to less than 30 cents to the dol- 14% in the fourth quarter, and they were lar by year end. down 34% on the year (figure 7). Mexican Peru's debt prices strengthened in the Brady bonds (pars) tumbled to their lowest secondary market as the last barrier to com- levels in almost four years, and yields rose 400 mercial debt negotiations was removed. basis points to more than 8 percentage points Legal challenges by a few foreign creditors above US long bonds, a near fourfold against Peru were withdrawn in mid-Decem- increase since the beginning of the year. ber, clearing the way for the affected debt to Events in Mexico weakened investor sen- be included in upcoming negotiations with timent toward other countries in the region, commercial bank creditors. Even so, debt but there apparently was some credit differ- prices ended the fourth quarter lower at 56 entiation. Argentine debt instruments were cents to the dollar, pulled down by external particularly hard hit, and pars fell to their lowest since issue. Stripped yields jumped FIGURE 7 200 basis points, to 11 percentage points SECONDARY MARKET PRICE INDEX, JANUARY 1990- above US long bonds. Investors' sentiment DECEMBER 1994 January 1990O= IOO was also affected by the large supply of Ar- 250: gentine new bonds in the quarter, as well as 2s weaker economic prospects. The contagion from the Mexican crisis was less severe for 200 -- ---------------- ----------- ----- -- - Brazilian debt, which had received a boost All from a rating upgrade by Moody's at end- 1501\ November; stripped yields on pars rose by about 125 bp, to almost 11 percentage points Brady par bonds over US long bonds. Markets in other sovereign restructured debt and in loans were also affected. Poland's 50, - - - - -- ---- - ................ debt prices were pulled down in the quarter on Mexico-linked factors, as were those of 0 Jordan, Morocco, and the Philippines. Prices on Russian loans administered by Vnesheko- Source Table A 6. FEBRUARY 1 995 15 SECONDARY MARKETS FOR DEVELOPING-COUNTRY DEBT factors. Elsewhere, a modest rebound in J. P. Morgan's Latin Eurobond index, cover- Panamanian debt prices, following progress ing almost $12 billion of outstanding issues, on debt negotiations, was wiped out by global experienced its largest monthly decline of developments. 7.7% in December: the index lost 8.9% for In tandem with the secondary market for the quarter and 12.9% for the year. As in the restructured debt and loans, the secondary Brady market, Mexico led the decline with an market for eurobonds also saw declining 11.1% fall in December, followed by Ar- prices and ballooning spreads during the gentina. Spreads on benchmark issues like quarter. Cautious investor sentiment had led Bancomext's 10-year global widened by 200 to widening spreads even before the events basis points between December 19 and end- in Mexico. Liquidity reportedly dried up in December. For the year, total returns on eu- the market following the difficulties in robonds fell below those on US government Mexico, as many market makers withdrew. bonds (-2.9%). OFFICIAL FLOWS: MULTILATERAL AND BILATERAL TABLE 9 MULTILATERAL FLOWS to Mexico's financial crisis and to maintain SUMMARY MEASURE OF TERMS OF COVER v OFFICIAL CREDITORS STEP IN TO HELP mvestor confidence in the iternational fi- BY MAJOR EXPORT nancial system. Mexico had suffered a major CREDIT AGENCIES MEXICOsytmmao SREDIT AGENCorE MEXIre outflow of foreign capital following its peso MLT' ST7 The IMF approved its largest stand-by credit devaluation of December 20, 1994. The IMF Chile 82 85 of up to $17.8 billion to Mexico on February $7.8 billion package is also an important sup- China 93 85 1, 1995. Of the total amount, $7.8 billion port for the efforts outlined in the stabiliza- Colombia 75 71 Ghana 72 64 (300 percent of Mexico's IMF quota) is avail- tion plan announced by Mexican President Hungary 73 72 able immediately, and the remaining $10 bil- Ernesto Zedillo. Indonesia 77 70 Romania 86 89 lion will be provided by the IMF to the extent In addition to the IMF stand-by credit, the Tunisia 74 84 that contributions of governments and cen- United States is to provide Mexico with $20 Turkey 73 71 Argentina 60 78 tral banks fall short of the targeted amount. billion; the -10 central banks through the Czech Republic 65 62 The IMF took this exceptional action to Bank for International Settlements (BIS) are Mdexico 62 84 provide an adequate international response to provide $10 billion; and the commercial Philippines 66 74 banks, $3 billion. Zimbabwe 61 76 TABLE 8 Morocco 59 77 LOAN CHARGES BY MULTILATERAL WOLDETABSRPRS Pakistan 58 84 DEVELOPMENT BANKS, JANUARY 1, * WORLD DEBT TABLES REPORTS Poland 56 85 1 995 INCREASED ODA TO SILICs Russia 52 70 Percent South Africa 51 57 IDB ADB AtDB IBRD According to the World Bank's World Debt Algeria 20 83 Currency pool lending ratesa 6.771 6.11 7.42 7.09' Tables 1994-95, official flows to developing Brazil 35 67 '6.1 Id 7.1 3e countries increased from roughly $43 billion Bulgaria 21 45 Spread on cost base 0.50 0.40 0.50 0.50' Ecuador 20 52 Commitment fee 0.759 0.75 1.00 0.75' in the late 1980s to about $55 billion in the Egypt 36 82 Otherservice charge 1.00 none none none 1990s. All official flows were estimated to be Iran 30 54 a. Variable and set semiannually; rate differential partly reflects the Peru 20 70 difference in the currency composition of the borrowing pool. $54.6 bllion In 1994, mcludmg aid of $44.6 Venezuela 28 53 b. Variable lending rate. billion. Although the concessional and grant c. Variable lending rate applicable to loans issued on or after May Angola 3 3 18, 1989. components of the official flows have been C6te d Ivoire 0 65 d. Rate fixed at disbursement. Iraq 0 0 e. Variable lending rate applicable to loans made on or after July 1, relatively stable ($42 billion-$45 billion) in Kenya 1 2 4 1 1982, until May 17, 1989. Nigeria 0 45 f. For borrowers eligible for interest waiver, the spread is 0.25% the l990s, there has been a shift toward grant Note: As of end-September 1 994. g Waived Sc basis points for January 1995. financing, partly as a result of the effort of bi- a. Medium- to long-term. h. A one-year reduction to 0.50% was approved by the board of lateral donors to alleviate the debt problem b. Short term. directors for fiscal 1995. Source: Word Bank and Berne i The IADB waived 0.75% of the 1% "other service charge" for of the severely indebted low-income coun- Union data. the first half of calendar year 1995. Source: World Bank data. tnes (SILICs). 16 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES OFFICIAL FLOWS: MULTILATERAL AND BILATERAL * MIGA REPORTS MID-YEAR GUARANTEE $4.3 billion was authorized in medium- and RESULTS long-term support. This consists of two direct loans, 27 long-term guarantees, 106 medium- In the six-months from July 1 to December term guarantees, and 106 medium-term 31, 1994, the Multilateral Investment Guar- insurance policies. The Ex-Im Bank's short- antee Agency (MIGA) issued 28 investment term insurance commitments during the fis- insurance contracts with combined maxi- cal year supported $844 million in US exports mum coverage of $312.1 million and addi- to the region. tional potential coverage of $123 million In fiscal 1994 Ex-Im Bank authorized the through commitment letters. Costa Rica, highest level of financing and insurance to Honduras, Morocco, and the Philippines re- Brazil ($1.8 billion), with the highest single ceived coverage for the first time. The devel- authorization to the SIVAM project. This is a opmental impact on the projects insured in broad infrastructure project of the Govern- the half year facilitated total direct invest- ment of Brazil to provide for protection and ment of more than $500 million. sustained development of the Amazon region. * EXIM JAPAN EXTENDS UNTIED LOAN TO BILATERAL ODA SOUTH AFRICA AND EXPORT CREDITS Following the Japanese government's an- nouncement in July 1994 that it will assist South Africa within the next two years under EXPORTS To LATIN AMERICA a $1.3 billion program, the Export-Import In November the Export-Import Bank of the Bank of Japan extended an untied loan to United States reported that it had supported ESKOM, a public electricity utility. The loan $5.7 billion in exports to Latin America in fis- of Y33 billion ($300 million) will be used to cal 1994 through $5.2 billion in financing expand transmission and distribution lines in and insurance commitments. Of this total, the unelectrified regions of the country. DEBT RELIEF UPDATE OFFICIAL CREDITORS TABLE 10 PARIS CLUB RESCHEDULING AGREEMENTS, JANUARY * PARIS CLUB CREDITORS INTRODUCE 1994-JANUARY 1995 "NAPLES TERMS" FOR POOREST COUNTRIES US$milhons Cutoff Consolidotion In December 1994 Paris Club creditors Country Dote Amount dote period through Type agreed to enhance the concessionality of debt Kenya 19 Jan 94 535 31 Dec 91 Arrears end-93 Standard relief accorded to the poorest, most indebted Senegal 3 Mar 94 237 l Jan 83 31 Dec 95 EETT Niger 4 Mar 94 160 I Jul 83 31 Mar 95 ETT countries (the so-called Naples Terms). Ag- C6te d'lvoire 22 Mar94 1,849 I Jul 83 31 Mar97 ETT reements with a number of eligible countries Cameroon 24 Mar 94 1,258 31 Dec 88 3 Sept 95 ETT Centra African Republ c 12 Apr 94 33 I Jan 83 31 Mar 95 ETT would be accorded a 67% reduction in debt Bulgaria 13 Apr 94 200 I Jan 91 30 Apr 95 Standard or debt service; the remaining eligible coun- Gabon 15 Apr 94 1,360 I Jul 86 31 Mar 95 Standard tries woulbeccored reduto. Algeria I Jun 94 5,345 30 Sept 93 31 May 95 Standard Russian Federaton 4 Jun 94 7,100 IJan 91 31 Dec94 Standard In its January 1995 meeting, the Paris Ecuador 27 Jun 94 293 I Jan 83 31 Dec94 Houston Club signed an Agreed Minute with Guinea Jordan 28 Jun 94 1,147 I Jan 89 31 May 97 Houston Congo 30 Jun 94 1. 75 IJan 86 3 1 May 95 Houston (table 10). The agreement was for a conven- Philippines 9Ju 94 586 Apr84 31 Dec95 Houston tional rescheduling of flows with a 50% Sierra Leone 20Ju 94 42 I Jul 83 31 Dec 95 ETT Guinea 25 Ian 95 n.a. I Apr 86 3 1 Dec 95 NT reduction of those falling due during the Note: ETT= Enhanced Toronto Terms; NT= Naples Terms, 50% reduction, in this Instance, consolidation period. Source: World Bank. FEBRUARY 1995 17 DEBT RELIEF UPDATE COMMERCIAL CREDITORS that had received less than their proportion- ate share of earlier interest payments. Since * POLAND COMPLETES DEBT REDUCTION; the country could not compensate these ECUADOR IS NEXT creditors fully in cash, an interim funding of Ecuador, when it closes its debt and debt ser- arrears took place. All remaining arrears vice reduction (DDSR) agreement with com- were capitalized by converting them at par mercial bank creditors in spring 1995, will be into bonds. the seventh country to have completed a Poland concluded its DDSR in October Brady-type restructuring agreement that re- 1994. Commercial bank creditors reached an solved substantial interest arrears. The first agreement with Russia in early October. As of six countries to negotiate DDSR deals were end-January 1995, Panama and Peru were in current on interest (with the exception of the early stages of negotiating DDSR agree- Costa Rica). Ecuador's interest arrears ac- ments. Panama recently proposed terms to counted for 43.6% of total debt restructured. its bank creditors. Panama and Peru, like the In addition to making the monthly partial previous seven countries to conclude DDSR interest payments to all creditors, Ecuador accords, must negotiate settlement of large agreed to make special payments to creditors interest arrears. COMMERCIAL BANK PROVISIONING AND CAPITAL ADEQUACY TABLE 11 BANK CAPITAL ADEQUACY U SLOWER GROWTH OF JAPANESE BANKS' RISK-WEIGHTED NONPERFORMING LOANS CAPITAL RATIOS U US BANKS REPORT HIGHER EARNINGS Percent, September 1994 The mtenm results forJapanese banks show Tier I Total Fueled by strong competition among banks, a slowdown in growth in nonperforming Britain (£) the third quarter saw the largest quarter-on- loans for the first time since March 1993, Barclays 6.0 9.8 quarter increase in recent years in commer- when banks began to disclose problem loans. Lloyds 6.6 10.6 Nat West 5.7 10.8 cial and industrial lending by US banks. At end-September 1994, nonperforming France (Ffr)t Third-quarter results were marginally higher loans for the 21 major banks were Y13.3 tril- BNP 5.6 9.6 than those in the previous quarter. The re- lion, down 1.8% on the end-March figure Cradit Lyonnais 5.0 8.2 Paribas 7.6 9.0 turn on assets of the nine money banks was (Salomon Brothers). At Y8.7 trillion of prob- Soci6te Generale 5.0 9.1 1.02%, up slightly over the second quarter lem loans, the decline was more pronounced Germony (DM)' but well below the 1.26% a year ago (Sa- for the 11 city banks. (Nonperforming loans Commerz 5.1 8.9 Deutsche 5.7 11.3 lomon Brothers). The return on equity (at do not include restructured debt, which is be- Dresdner 5.6 9.1 15.89%) was also higher compared with the lieved to be large.) Despite the drop in prob- Japang(Y) previous quarter, though much lower than a lem loans, their share in total loans is Sakura 4.8 9.6 year ago. Banks' net interest margin edged unchanged at 3.5% for the 21 major banks Sumitomo S.S 9.7 up to 3.07% in the third quarter. The share and 3.3% for the 11 city banks. Japanese United States (US1$) Bankers Truss 8.1 13.3 of nonperforming assets continued on a banks also wrote off more bad debt, selling Citicorp 7.3 11.7 downward trend, contracting to almost 1%. Y2.5 trillion of problem debt to the Coopera- JFP. Morgan 9.6 14.3 a P. MsofrJune 94.6 14 Provisioning for problem loans was high at tive Credit Purchasing Company, established a. As of June 1994. b. As of December 993. 244%. to purchase nonperforming loans collateral- Source: The Banker, Saomon Brothers; and IBCA. Fourth-quarter results of US money cen- ized by real estate at discounts to face value. ter banks are expected to be lower on volatile Sumitomo Bank just announced in Jan- trading results and a narrowing of the differ- uary that it will post a loss for the fiscal year ential between long and short rates. Major ending March 1995 on a sharp increase in UK banks are expected to post strong results loan loss provisions. This is the first time in for 1994 on improvements in credit quality some 50 years that a majorJapanese bank has and ongoing efforts to control expenses. publicly reported a loss. 18 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FINANCIAL BRIEF * LOCAL AND GLOBAL FACTORS AFFECT The average annualized equity return for EMERGING EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY all emerging markets was 25%, significantly higher than that for developed markets over Volatility, which increases the unpredicta- the same period. Returns were computed bility of returns to investors, is an important based on a value-weighted portfolio of secu- but poorly understood factor in emerging rities that trade in each market and include equity markets. A market with lower vola- both dividends and capital gains. The data tility is more investor-friendly and will attract also suggest that 12 of the 20 markets show larger amounts of capital. In addition, the high autocorrelations-that is, there is signif- cost of raising capital will be lower on icant predictability in the equity returns over average. time based on past performance. Colombia, Equity returns in emerging markets ex- Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Philippines, hibit four characteristics that are distinct Portugal, Turkey, and Venezuela show auto- from developed capital markets: average re- correlations in excess of 20%, while Chile, turns are higher; returns are not highly cor- Greece, Thailand, and Zimbabwe show auto- related with returns in developed markets; correlations of more than 10%. The eight returns are more predictable from past be- markets that showed low autocorrelations havior; and equity return volatility is higher. were Argentina, Brazil, India, Jordan, Korea, Real investment decisions in an economy are Malaysia, Nigeria, and Taiwan (China). related to the average returns expected from The markets showed a wide range in such investment as well as the uncertainty of volatility. Annualized volatility of equity re- those expected returns. While the first three turns ranged from 18% (Jordan) to 104% characteristics would enhance the share of (Argentina)-a range of 86%. In developed emerging market equity in international in- markets, the comparable range over the vestors' portfolios, the fourth (volatility) same time period was 18%. would not. The study attributed these differences to The volatility of emerging-market equity several factors. First, as a country's share of was the focus of a recent study titled "Emerg- trade in GDP increases, its equity market ing Equity Market Volatility" by Geert tends to be less volatile-that is, the more Bekaert and Campbell Harvey.' The authors used data for 20 markets from the IFC emerg- FIGURE 8 ing markets database in a sample from 1976 AVERAGE ANNUALIZED EQUITY RETURNS AND VOLATILITY FOR 20 EMERGING MARKETS, 1 976-92 to 1992. The study showed that annual aver- Equity return (percent) * -Standard deviation (percent) age US dollar returns in emerging markets 80 120 range from 68% for Argentina to -12% for Indonesia, covering the years since the 100 Indonesian market opened (1990-92) (fig- 60 80 ure 8). US dollar returns, however, are a n compound measure of the inherent uncer- 40 60 tainty of equity market returns because they express not only the volatility of equity mar- 40 ket returns, but also the volatility of exchange 20 20 rates. In fact, the latter is an important ele- ment in total measured volatility. But US dol- 0 0 lar returns are a good measure of the actual -, - z - s 2 3' total returns that a foreign investor would - c c o realize from an investment in an emerging a20 market. So.ce. Beoaert a-d Ha-oey, 1995 1_2 F E B.E-' J scs' 19 FINANCIAL BRIEF open an economy is to trade, the lower the omy becomes more globally integrated, the volatility, although the relationship is erratic relative importance of world factors in- (see figure 9). Trade is defined as the sum of creases. Therefore, the volatility associated exports and imports. Argentina had an aver- with small segmented markets diminishes age trade/GDP ratio of 15% and annualized with openness. volatility of 104%.Jordan, by contrast, had an Volatility also tends to decrease as the average trade/GDP ratio of 119% and volatil- market capitalization/GDP ratio increases, ity of 18%. Generally, volatility is affected although, again, the relationship is erratic by local as well as world factors. As an econ- (figure 10). Argentina had a market capital- ization/GDP ratio of 2% and annualized FIGURE 9 volatility of 104%, whereasJordan had a ratio INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADE AND VOLATILITY of 30% and annualized volatility of 18%. A Trode/GDP (percent) * -Standard deviation (percent) higher ratio suggests a greater state of stock 140 | 120 market development that is usually associ- 120 I00 ated with more diversified firms in the econ- loo 00 | |omy s stock market, which in turn reduces 80 market volatility. Taiwan (China) is an ex- 80 ception to this general rule, however. Its high 60 \ A / \ * " | | 60 ratio of market capitalization to GDP (48%) 40 is associated with high volatility (53%). This 40 suggests that other factors may be influenc- 20 20 ing volatility, for instance, the degree to which the stock market is open to foreign in- O O Wna C, O O W O _ t _ 9 h ,U z l: , O Ovestors. Volatility is also lower for countries R -C S D P E) a) O 0 o CE, t Q that have a larger number of listed firms. -< NJ 0 ' 9 & 9 z >This is direct evidence in support of the hy- Sou,ce: Bekaert and Harvey, 1995. pothesis that diversification tends to reduce volatility. As capital markets are liberalized, volatility FIGURE 10 will be affected to a greater extent by global RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKET CAPITALIZATION AND factors relative to local factors. Indeed, the VOLATILITY Market capitalization/GDP (percent) * -Standard deviation (percent) study finds that for most emerging markets, 60 120 capital market reform and integration leads to lower volatility. The reduction is particu- loo larly pronounced for Argentina, Brazil, Mex- 40 \ | 80 ico, Portugal, and Taiwan (China). For a small subset of countries (Colombia, Pak- 60 istan, Turkey, and Venezuela), however, there was, in fact, an increase in volatility. 20 40 This suggests that other, perhaps short-term, 20 trends may also have been at work. C MNE,10 0 C) >- a, aD a _ . era h °) .o d S ° .° o > ° o (u s O S O D P W 0 1 Paper presented at theWorld Bank-American <5 3 . a Finance Association specialjoint session at the an- o nual conference of the Allied Social Science Asso- Souce: Bekaert and Harney, 995 ciation, Washington, D.C.,January 1995. 20 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A. I BANK AND TRADE-RELATED NONBANK CLAIMS US$ miiiions I 993Q4 Trade-related Bank Guaranteed nonbank Country group or country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1 993Q2 Total claims claims cloims All developing countries 707,466 749,424 788,765 825,791 844,417 839,309 687,846 108,099 151,463 East Asia and Pacific 120,285 148,577 173,722 199,004 21 1,727 222,412 195,474 14,578 26,938 Europe and Central Asia 157,439 184,089 189,401 188,905 194,535 188,744 156,725 33,498 32,019 Labn America and the Caribbean 258,601 238,974 244,805 258,214 258,698 259,699 226,133 26,756 33,566 Middle East and North Africa 94,521 94,922 100,018 95,770 97,319 90,649 59,544 18,908 31,105 SouthAsia 21,495 22,489 21,566 25,033 24,116 23,369 18,744 5,054 4,625 Sub-Saharan Africa 55,125 60,373 59,253 58,865 58,022 54,436 31,226 9,305 23,210 Severely indebted middle-income 212,134 222,459 219,944 223,038 220,337 217,374 170,259 16,148 47,1 15 Angola 2, 68 2,370 2,680 3,415 3,167 3,201 2,046 1,018 1,155 Argentina 35,787 34,475 36,356 39,333 35,651 37,409 32,055 2,549 5,354 Bolivia 453 463 534 565 504 503 252 46 251 Brazil 77,887 76,167 71,931 74,525 75,994 74,751 66,490 3.883 8,261 Bulgaria 8,324 9,348 8,909 8,135 7,582 7,094 6,525 515 569 Cameroon 2,194 2,757 2,843 2,696 2,554 2,477 1,359 539 1i 18 Congo 1,537 1,724 1,622 1,715 1,728 1,742 1,041 236 701 Ecuador 5,202 4,773 4,553 4,198 3,987 3.925 3,332 309 593 Jamaica 983 975 737 749 714 721 463 134 258 Jordan 3,217 3,657 3,297 2,900 3,103 2,783 1,808 927 975 Morocco 7,201 8,002 8,053 7,990 7,718 7,317 4,840 2,192 2,477 Panama 20,006 22,855 22,926 22,724 23,980 24,439 24,036 121 403 Peru 5,967 6,179 6,143 6,358 6.155 5,938 3,138 420 2,800 Poland 21,044 26,301 27,099 25,149 24,913 23,444 12,096 2,316 11,348 Syrian Arab Republic 1,326 1,219 1.107 1,032 1,051 965 609 47 356 Uruguay 2,1 23 2,226 1,991 2,578 2,538 2,767 2,705 122 62 Severely indebted low-income 43,022 50.281 49,707 49,356 50,500 48,3 19 29,829 4,315 18,490 Moderately indebted low-income 40,989 38J25 36,848 38,582 36,641 34,978 23,371 7,332 11,607 Moderately indebted middle-income 284,698 292,128 309,373 323,024 330,282 329,018 285,148 62,260 43,870 Selected countriesa 336,490 347,822 381,356 41 1,087 427,180 436,534 374,043 56,560 62,491 Ageria 20,285 21,014 21,805 18,740 18,740 18,143 15.247 9,138 2,896 Chile 9,880 9,823 9,149 11,195 11,512 11,424 10,559 640 865 China 26,682 34,430 41,381 48,538 50,399 55,406 48,420 4,504 6,986 Colombia 8,841 8,889 8,479 8,843 8,982 9,085 7,886 1,251 1,199 C6te d'lvoire 4,186 4,379 4,042 3,907 3,594 3,565 2,276 300 1,289 Egypt 18,689 14,224 13,569 11,978 11,149 10,269 3,612 1.978 6,657 Hungary 12,219 12,359 11,151 9,288 9,410 8,131 7,436 743 695 India 15,950 15,640 15,383 18,578 17,391 16,813 14,123 3,014 2,690 Indonesia 25,507 34,850 39,773 47,064 49,083 50,122 42,507 4,031 7,615 Korea, Rep. of 3 1,503 36,21 6 41,820 44,733 47,581 47,499 45,725 1,493 1,774 Malaysia 9,141 9,252 10,062 1 2,831 15,726 17,925 15,992 852 1,933 Mexico 75,507 62,684 72,485 75,821 79,214 79,543 71,394 12,003 8,149 Nigeria 11,865 1 2,796 1 2.896 1 2,937 1 3,886 1 2, 184 4,454 2,06 1 7,730 Philippines 1 1,914 1 1,969 1 1,839 1 1,033 10,120 9,943 6,652 1,900 3,29 1 Thailand 12,376 1 8,035 24,953 30,522 34,569 37,381 33,896 1,452 3,485 Turkey 16,705 22,230 23,094 24,911 26,131 29,143 25,370 6,897 3,773 Venezuela 25,240 1 9,032 19,475 20,168 19,693 19,958 18,494 4,303 1.464 Offshore banking centers 88,507 1 14,937 1 19,142 36,421 139,470 147,564 142,890 4,123 4,674 Oil exporters 167,188 176,696 185,856 188,008 192,542 184,174 142,065 41,647 42,109 DRSreporters 122,416 132,264 139,563 142,218 144,867 138,685 108,592 39J173 30,093 DRS reporters 601,5 12 636,246 673,182 708,325 725,943 731,216 609,149 82,865 1 22,067 Note: See country classifications at the end of statistica appendix. a. Most of these countries are also ncluded in the indebted country groups. Source: OECD; Bank for Intemational Settlements, Statistics on External Indebtedness. FEBRUARY 1 995 21 STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.2 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES US$ millions Claims Liabilities Country group or country 1992 1993Q4 1994Q I 1Q994Q2 1992 1993Q4 1994Q I 1994Q2 All developing countries 694,761 698,542 708,264 725,862 556,784 547,389 544,948 560,152 EastAsiaand Pacific 173,605 189,794 197,559 210,799 108,378 108,780 104,713 107,422 Europe and Central Asia 155,432 156,158 156,340 159,051 87,238 97,290 97,340 102,526 Latin America and the Carbbean 226,142 227,689 226,797 224,533 142,599 134,063 137,562 141,108 Middle Eastand NorthAfrica 79,272 71,978 74,372 76,356 146,072 136,104 130,822 131,796 South Asia 23,666 20,811 21,770 22,590 40,493 40,537 43,331 45,670 Sub-Saharan Africa 35,629 31,541 31,426 32,533 30,728 30,441 31,180 3 1,630 Severely indebted middle-income 180,426 174,996 179,325 174,918 132,733 121 ,795 123,828 127,226 Angola 2,1 13 1,783 1,778 1,728 748 472 490 480 Argentina 33,569 29,535 28,939 30,553 19,942 18,571 18,770 18,005 Bolivia 302 406 414 430 717 798 789 828 Brazil 64,132 68,462 70,098 64,057 26,843 25,666 25,997 25,801 Bulgana 7,421 6,451 6,379 6,251 1,402 1,225 1,167 1,339 Cameroon 1,500 1,308 1,289 1,312 720 517 629 629 Congo 967 1,028 1,078 1,077 349 296 308 291 Ecuador 3,601 3,083 3,096 2,954 2,841 2,507 2,446 2,331 Jamaica 485 497 443 473 662 633 620 679 Jordan 1,832 1,576 1,448 I,SIS 6,878 6,201 5,984 5,921 Morocco 5,239 4,934 5,130 5,286 5,723 5,787 5,724 6,071 Panama 31,339 30,481 31,397 31,768 40,890 35,601 36,781 37,684 Peru 3,388 3,092 3,224 3,290 3,904 3,933 4,150 6,260 Poland 1 3,093 11 ,695 11,983 11 ,809 7,522 6,990 7,265 7,881 SyTian Arab Republic 698 603 532 546 5,260 5,501 5,472 5,619 Uruguay 2,525 2,691 2,344 2,401 5,690 4,752 4,789 4,954 Severely indebted low-income 29,605 29,319 29,544 28,997 34,002 31,692 32,040 32,569 Moderately indebted low-income 24,793 22,620 23,485 23,977 35,459 39,467 42,484 45,574 Moderately indebted middle-income 275,910 270,916 271,343 274,666 150,ISI 141,764 142,805 144,301 Selected countries' 342,328 359,771 367,741 380,817 225,547 227,036 225,701 232,664 Algeria 13,968 13,644 14,286 14,712 3,128 2,856 2,532 3,348 Chile 10,121 10,010 10,466 10,475 6,783 7,956 8,556 9,316 China 42,676 48,576 46,151 51,756 49,012 49,150 46,141 50,859 Colombia 7,260 7,744 7,979 8,677 8,244 7,237 7,591 7,952 C6te d'lvoire 2,475 2,220 2,197 2,080 1,994 1,998 2,086 2,141 Egypt 4,269 3,526 3,497 3,627 22,327 25,594 26,311 27,128 Hungary 8,648 7,309 7,302 7,359 2,840 2,320 1,648 1,723 India 15,456 13,914 14,814 14,806 6,847 7,739 9,180 9,805 Indonesia 40,084 37, 1 90 38,005 37,8 1 4 1 8,028 1 2,575 1 2,294 11 ,301 Korea, Rep. of 42,653 45,213 47,395 52,039 15,421 15,199 15,160 17,384 Malaysia 11,094 16,002 17,976 17,717 12,657 19,234 17,897 14,926 Mexico 67,785 69,717 70,232 71,438 26,167 25,451 26,106 25,083 Nigeria 4,563 3,971 3,888 3,813 4,371 4,613 4,594 4,623 Philippines 7,433 6,607 6,701 6,372 6,206 5,803 6,249 5,899 Thailand 27,419 34,126 39,238 43,021 5,239 4,988 5,234 5,370 Turkey 17,844 22,836 21,788 19,790 14,577 15,075 13,548 14,790 Venezuela 18,580 17,166 15,826 15,321 21,706 19,248 20,574 21,016 Offshore banking centers 1,031,951 1,069,898 1,1 13,844 1,138,422 940,596 903,791 928,079 966,682 Oil exporters 161,616 150,635 154,ISI 157,016 193,037 169,926 165,978 171,426 DRS reporters I I 1,388 103,506 102,486 103,977 54,779 53,426 53,097 54,913 DRSreporters 583,291 604,034 614,649 623,384 447,093 443,364 446,575 461,965 Note: See country classificatons at the end of statistical appendix. a. Most of these countries are also included in the indebted country groups. Source: Bank for Intematonal Setdements, Intemotionol Banlong and Finonc,ol Morket Developments. 22 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.3 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN US$ millions Froncea Germanyb Country group or country 1991 1992Q3 1 992Q4 t 993Q I 1992Q4 1993Q4 1994QI 1994Q2 All developing countries 78,712 85,008 77,821 77,192 137.717 142,825 147,006 155,156 EastAsiaand Pacfc 14,303 17,026 15,012 16,979 14,840 19,399 18,584 21,096 Europe and Centra Asia 16,932 18,917 18,251 16,736 61,446 62,229 63,646 67,540 Latin America and the Caribbean 17,399 18,292 17,184 16,592 33,038 33,580 33,447 34,282 Middle East and North Africa 17,371 17,467 15,524 15,269 11,678 11,531 14,130 14,338 SouthAsia 1,939 2,523 2,169 2,142 8,498 7,798 8,726 9,281 Sub-SaharanAfrica 10,769 10,782 9,681 9,474 7,145 7,124 7,243 7,293 Severely indebted middle-income 23,418 24,134 22,549 2 517 34,709 33,829 36,149 37.449 Angola 730 744 745 628 .. Argentna 2,335 2,298 2,350 2.099 7,357 6,776 6,872 7,309 Bolivia 18 18 9 8 310 323 342 367 Brazi 7,885 8.292 7,693 7,447 1 0,656 11,041 10.675 10,607 Bulgaria 654 664 621 542 2,524 2,636 2,671 2,748 Cameroon 809 768 685 787 866 758 780 815 Congo 697 714 669 508 .. Ecuador 164 152 167 125 585 583 580 590 Jamaica 14 12 10 7 .. Jordan ,020 1,095 746 740 514 411 434 466 Morocco 2,199 2,296 2,157 1,986 1,129 1,039 1,086 1,119 Panama 2,530 2,596 2,623 2,627 1,473 1,669 1,695 1,883 Peru 640 629 571 508 1,014 996 978 1,005 Poland 1,321 1,425 1,308 1,288 5,607 5,045 5,192 5,381 Syrian Arab Republic 271 285 271 241 521 516 529 556 Uruguay 130 186 162 190 112 138 124 150 Severely indebted low-income 6,874 7,331 6,478 6,146 4,499 5,256 5.548 5,589 Moderately indebted low-income 4,678 5,18 4,404 4.308 10,087 9,963 10,306 10,839 Moderately indebted middle-income 25,851 26,528 25,131 23,455 60,422 62,777 63.783 67,892 Selected countries 33,827 36,943 33,002 34,163 45,092 48,531 48,030 51,065 Algeria 5,775 5,287 4,613 4,656 1,648 1,346 1.441 1,580 Chile 437 539 543 513 1,651 1,716 1,702 1,637 China 3,769 4,645 4,512 5,716 2.381 2,668 3,216 4,120 Colombia 5 2 575 589 624 054 1,205 1,301 1,435 C6te d'lvoire 1,936 2,065 1,793 1,412 348 342 343 362 Egypt 2,437 2,364 1,972 1,851 2,650 2,474 2,548 2,642 Hungary 217 175 153 144 3,668 3,191 3,588 3,684 India 1,362 1,783 1,45 1,328 5,367 5.472 5,660 5,973 Indonesia 2,537 2,692 2,431 2,54 3,705 4,560 4,694 5,042 Korea, Rep. of 4,573 5,904 4,664 5,205 3,778 3,736 1,583 2,145 Malaysia 455 712 659 694 1,093 1,659 2,057 2,042 Mexico 2,357 2,849 2,6 0 2,669 4,470 5,044 5,192 5,274 Nigeria 1,500 1,295 129 1,008 745 611 740 747 Philippines 1,389 894 811 731 506 704 615 894 Thailand 1,276 1,701 1,668 1,850 2,600 3,038 3,272 3,552 Turkey 1,928 2,077 2,093 2,072 6,828 8,166 7,737 7,490 Venezuela 1,367 1,386 1.309 1. 50 2,602 2,597 2,342 2,445 Offshore banking centers 35,166 42,766 40,286 38,450 66,516 77,246 77,864 84,434 Oil exporters 21,848 22,671 21 ,364 9,901 41,575 41,399 44,246 47,139 DRS reporters 17,1 14 17.633 6,221 14,136 38,616 38,268 38,941 41,386 DRS reporters 68,657 74,763 68,084 68,609 92,288 96,442 97,023 101,181 (table contrnues on next page) FEBRUARY 1995 23 STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.3 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN (CONTINUED) US$ millions Italy Netherlandsa Country group orcountry 1992 1993Q1 1993Q2 I993Q3 1991 1992 1993Q2 1993Q4 All developing countries 18, 164 17,876 18,095 17,991 17,511 21,291 22,445 22,902 East Asia and Pacific 84 70 65 71 2,650 3,326 3,836 3,915 Europe and Central Asia 8,958 8,715 8,714 8,909 4,012 4,417 4,328 4,372 Latin America and the Caribbean 5,452 5,358 5,372 5,060 7,280 9,512 10,307 10,334 Middle East and North Africa 708 622 672 677 1,934 1,782 1,715 2,027 South Asia 2,145 2,285 2,472 2,459 647 905 636 768 Sub-Saharan Africa 818 825 800 814 820 819 1,140 1,106 Severely indebted middle-income 5,134 4,948 4,808 4,768 3,912 5,002 5,606 6,085 Angola '' Argentina 1,657 1,699 1,631 1,566 1,029 1,439 1,668 1,425 Bolivia S 5 5 5 ,, Brazil 827 754 780 776 1,321 2,003 2,234 2,772 Bulgaria 589 557 522 544 .. Cameroon Congo .. Ecuador 167 157 154 164 301 257 352 360 Jamaica ,. .. Jordan . ,, Morocco 384 352 332 331 Panama .. .. 433 403 443 465 Peru 102 93 91 83 .. Poland 1,345 1,268 1,231 1,225 392 353 339 404 Syrian Arab Republic .. .. .. .. . Uruguay 58 63 62 74 437 546 571 659 Severely indebted low-income 818 825 800 814 174 130 Moderately indebted low-income 88 89 93 .. Moderately indebted middle-income 9,234 8,932 9,031 8,940 7,886 9,563 9,828 9,864 Selected countriesc 3,752 3,685 3,710 3,480 7,005 8,837 9,658 9,738 Algeria .. .. .. .. 765 688 659 742 Chile 131 127 149 151 398 668 708 625 China .. .. .. .. 413 435 506 582 Colombia 141 131 145 88 277 537 636 613 C6te d'lvoire 12 13 10 19 .. Egypt Hungary 214 201 195 202 .. India Indonesia .. .. .. .. 1,318 1,659 1,799 1,768 Korea, Rep. of .. .. .. .. 467 775 691 670 Malaysia .. .. .. .. .. .. 264 Mexico 1,579 1,591 1,597 1,401 1,853 2,168 1,990 1,704 Nigeria 806 813 790 795 Philippines 84 70 65 71 315 Thailand .. .. .. .. 451 458 574 580 Turkey .. .. .. .. 545 731 1,013 1,308 Venezuela 786 739 758 753 517 719 815 831 Offshore bankingcenters 23,198 21,419 21,800 25480 10,492 12,305 11,393 11,289 Oilexporters 7,891 7,624 7,670 7,822 3,155 3,984 3,739 3,237 DRS reporters 7,891 7,624 7,670 7,822 2,705 3,281 3,140 2,834 DRS reporters 8,961 8,841 8,749 8,498 11,520 14,723 15,869 16,323 24 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX Switzerland United Kingdom' Country group or country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1990 1991Q2 1991 Q4 1992Q4 All developing countries 20,185 24,358 23,632 23,769 45,561 42,571 46,495 45,689 EastAsia and Pacfc 1,359 1,877 2,246 2,604 5,017 5,095 5,956 6,066 Europe and Central Asaa 7,442 8,262 7,283 5,569 10,155 9,005 9,736 9,355 Latin America and the Caribbean 6,382 7,905 8,273 9,498 16,904 16,323 17,527 18,061 Middle East and North Africa 2,169 2,768 2,836 3,164 4,347 3,644 4,203 3,425 South Asia 402 574 527 718 1,700 1,518 1,698 1,814 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,431 2,972 2,468 2,215 7,084 6,531 6,766 6,832 Severelyindebted middle-income 9,113 10,665 10,044 9,504 13,031 11,389 11,814 11,510 Angola 73 97 63 106 33 31 22 30 Argentina 1,207 1,414 1,471 1,604 2,352 2,244 2,738 2,797 Bolivia 10 12 12 16 8 6 17 Brazil 2,197 2,862 2,812 2,821 4,694 4,226 4,104 4,274 Bulgaria 444 482 445 248 473 209 233 191 Cameroon 46 61 SI 43 71 73 78 64 Congo 2 2 4 1 37 37 39 39 Ecuador 72 107 125 132 546 542 514 471 Jamaica 13 21 18 8 68 63 71 76 Jordan 89 93 93 106 382 355 357 270 Morocco 103 151 162 131 401 308 351 368 Panama 4,005 4,331 3,782 3,295 1,191 1,143 1,061 1,148 Peru 84 108 142 172 276 295 342 226 Poland 379 449 479 443 1,279 1,107 1,188 1,000 Syrian Arab Republic 35 23 IS 19 69 62 58 42 Uruguay 101 108 79 106 237 174 185 227 Severely indebted low-income 1,717 1,829 1,940 1,826 3,420 2,854 2,792 2,314 Moderately indebted low-income 1,024 1,297 1,132 1,312 2,527 2,329 2,770 2,592 Moderately indebted middle-income 8,413 9,540 8,722 8,424 17,812 17,303 18,943 19,305 Selected countries' 6,540 8,444 8,402 9,692 18,570 18,067 19,988 19,877 Algeria 301 338 307 298 760 655 921 685 Chile 193 304 376 624 567 524 704 582 China 276 363 438 495 1,025 843 1,031 942 Colombia 194 181 168 291 643 546 613 647 C6te d'lvoire III 1 04 III 100 247 148 155 162 Egypt 454 504 416 383 650 582 594 430 Hungary 297 294 118 63 330 331 299 268 India 250 379 275 417 1,219 1,083 1,164 1,207 Indonesia 189 246 193 317 1,021 1,009 1,231 1,253 Korea. Rep. of 336 584 712 775 1,343 1,560 1,842 1,827 Malaysia 58 79 172 150 484 495 605 689 Mexico 1,322 1,716 1,864 2,369 4,909 5,270 5,611 5,943 Nigeria 311 320 311 200 1,065 741 702 477 Philippines 199 178 144 121 797 736 717 761 Thailand 267 401 552 633 228 332 424 485 Turkey 1,202 1,865 1,579 1,617 1,142 1,156 1,134 1,053 Venezuela 579 587 665 839 2,140 2,056 2,241 2,466 Offshore banking centers 17,929 20,856 20,194 18,826 28,235 25,098 25,943 24,063 Oil exporters 6,294 6,381 6,155 5,29 1 10,864 9,136 10,096 9,793 DRS reporters 4,305 4,612 4,131 2,942 8,066 7,050 7,861 7,705 DRS reporters 18,320 22,384 22,127 23,264 35,174 33,128 36,183 35,850 (table contnues on next poge) FEBRUARY 1 995 25 STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.3 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN (CONTINUED) US$ millions United Stotesa Country group or country 1 992Q4 1993Q3 1993Q4 1994QI All developing countries 68,428 75,538 81,643 83,227 East Asia and Pacific 11,941 12,688 13,962 14,375 Europe and Central Asia 4,359 5,333 5,452 5,848 Latin America and the Caribbean 45,746 51,476 55,648 56,000 Middle East and North Africa 2,759 2,763 3,119 3,696 South Asia 1,080 1,267 1,398 1,266 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,543 2,011 2,064 2,042 Severely indebted middle-income 16,504 19,708 23,547 24,208 Angola Argentina 5,777 7,344 9,742 9,157 Bolivia 18 29 30 46 Brazil 7,352 8,724 9,532 10,660 Bulgaria 32 53 99 124 Cameroon .. 16 IS 14 Congo Ecuador 457 463 491 489 Jamaica 147 148 143 133 Jordan 83 67 III 70 Morocco 461 487 548 525 Panama 615 608 653 796 Peru 195 287 404 536 Poland 216 270 367 369 Syrian Arab Republic 9 8 41 6 Uruguay 1,063 1,148 1,316 1,229 Severely indebted low-income 880 1,010 1,214 839 Moderately indebted low-income 904 1,104 1,148 1,328 Moderately indebted middle-income 38,283 40,160 41,639 41,863 Selected countriesc 44,088 47,506 49,478 49,878 Algeria 486 499 533 618 Chile 3,174 3,256 3,422 3,560 China 430 610 730 732 Colombia 1,940 2,027 2,196 2,267 Cote d'lvoire 18 16 40 35 Egypt 148 119 127 III Hungary 214 235 358 341 India 462 574 674 797 Indonesia 2,050 2,013 2,580 2,751 Korea, Rep. of 4,032 4,249 4,367 4,630 Malaysa 716 1,256 1,257 1,342 Mexico 17,277 19,160 19,561 19,892 Nigeria 297 295 458 181 Philippines 2,906 2,129 2,499 2,3 17 Thailand 1,807 2,431 2,529 2,603 Turkey 1,307 1,886 1,849 1,983 Venezuela 6,824 6,751 6,298 5,718 Offshore banking centers 26,187 24,024 25,966 25,538 Oil exporters 10,054 10,233 10,364 10,270 DRS reporters 8,014 8,022 7,888 7,161 DRS reporters 62,904 69,768 75,466 76,840 Not available. Note: This table shows atest avai able data from each major creditor country. Recent data are not available for Japan. See country classifications at the end of statist cal appendix. a. Consolidated claims of banks and the r worldwide operations. b. Partly consolidated aggregate c a ms of banks and their wor dwide operations. c. Most of these countr es are also included in the indebted country groups. Source: Banque de France, Bulletin Trimestrieb; Deutsche Bundesbank, Zohlungsbiionzstatistik; Banca d'Italia, Bolietino Economico; De Nederlandsche Bank, Quarterly Bulletin; Banque Nationale Suisse, Les Banques Suisse; Bank of England, Stotisticol Abstract, Port l; Federal Financia Institutions Examination Council, U.S. Country Exposure Lending Survey. 26 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.4 MATURITIES OF BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES US$ millions 1993Q4 More than Less than I yeor and less More than Estimated Short-term Country group or country i 992 Total I year than 2 years 2 years Unallocated short-term (% of total) All developing countries 574,810 582,375 305,966 43,253 209,188 23,968 265,296 46 East Asia and Pacific 137,691 152,490 94,001 10,289 40,702 7,498 85,136 56 Europe and Central Asia 147,695 142,627 64,110 14,790 56,922 6,805 49,326 35 Latin America and the Caribbean 188,724 192,791 97,614 9,000 79,474 6,703 89,919 47 Middle East and North Africa 53,556 51,043 28,068 5,717 16,343 915 22,100 43 SouthAsia 14,729 14,645 6,204 1,089 6,417 935 5,081 35 Sub-Saharan Africa 32,415 28,779 15,969 2,368 9,330 1 112 13,734 48 Severely indebted middle-income 151,872 151,863 79,972 9,203 57,588 5,100 72,021 47 Angola 2,011 1,678 990 234 445 9 844 50 Argentina 30,261 30,357 15,968 713 12,221 1,455 15,302 50 Bolivia 220 249 198 8 23 20 188 76 Brazil 51,407 54,175 29,666 3,481 18,660 2,368 26,596 49 Bulgaria 7,638 6,682 4,347 423 1,751 161 4,029 60 Cameroon 1,424 1,191 520 138 514 19 400 34 Congo 747 675 343 67 260 5 296 44 Ecuador 3,043 2,829 1,580 249 956 44 1,425 50 Jamaica 549 401 180 23 149 49 152 38 Jordan 1,540 1,264 796 93 335 40 698 55 Morocco 4,888 4,569 1,132 517 2,918 2 711 16 Panama 21,397 22,228 10,856 1,337 9,468 567 9,752 44 Peru 2,566 2,605 1,732 64 729 80 1,655 64 Poland 12,366 11,546 3,826 1,120 6,429 171 2,903 25 Syrian Arab Republic 546 463 398 29 34 2 384 83 Uruguay 2,900 3,294 2,264 94 924 12 2,156 65 Severely indebted low-income 24,162 23,655 11,080 1,846 10,089 640 9,089 38 Moderately indebted low-income 19,548 18,966 9,006 1,647 7,497 816 7,441 39 Moderately indebted middle-income 241,950 238,325 108,107 20,971 101,184 8,063 89,341 37 Selected countriesa 285,187 300,224 160,171 20,983 106,185 12,885 141,266 47 Algerna 14,684 14,093 4,802 2,322 6,832 137 2,668 19 Chile 9,699 10,035 5,254 489 4,192 100 4,838 48 China 30,198 32,538 14,933 2,541 13,063 2,001 12,815 39 Colomba 6,928 7,421 3,484 572 3,197 168 3,043 41 C6te d'lvoire 2,452 2,103 1,638 60 365 40 1,529 73 Egypt 4,129 3,467 2,008 426 881 152 1,651 48 Hungary 8,859 7,485 2,010 1,090 3,522 863 1,071 14 India 11,101 1 1,091 4,209 846 5,434 602 3,365 30 Indonesia 28,417 29,866 18,265 2,793 7,933 875 16,267 54 Korea, Rep. of 38,730 40,295 28,761 2,072 6,890 2,572 26,783 66 Malaysia 8,475 12,607 7,174 585 3,875 973 6,534 52 Mexico 53.879 55,257 26,035 2,384 25,285 1,553 24,025 43 Nigera 4. 54 3,679 1,668 420 1,515 76 1,160 32 Philippines 6,874 5,633 2,236 343 2,887 167 1,854 33 Thailand 22,959 29,123 20,856 1,821 5,604 842 19,190 66 Turkey 15,455 19,383 12,229 1,712 4,025 1,417 10,261 53 Venezuela 18,194 16,148 4,609 507 10,685 347 4,212 26 Offshore banking centers 477,141 506,237 418,658 12,574 62,582 12,423 406,548 80 Oil exporters 132,598 123,6 6 56.885 12,990 52,065 1.676 44,399 36 DRS reporters 108,918 98,654 38,283 11,000 48,160 1,211 28,541 29 DRS reporters 489,403 507,356 271,293 33,902 181,621 20,540 240,188 47 Note: See country class ficatons at the end of statstical appendix. a. Most of these countries are also ncluded in the indebted country groups. Source: Bank for Internat onal Settlements, The Matunty and Sectoral Distrbueon of lntemotional Bank Lending. FEBRUARY 1995 27 STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.5 FUNDS RAISED ON INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS US$ millions Country'group or country' /990 /99/ 1992 1993 /993Q2 /993Q3 /993Q4 1994Q1 1994Q2 1994Q3 All developing countries 3 1,835 40,120 41,562 78,257 17,431 20,213 25,463 19,654 16,804 19,614 Bonds 7,846 13,847 22,335 57,020 11,760 13,349 21,290 14,464 9,344 11,041 International 5,841 9,923 14,362 40,265 8,506 10,035 14,931 11,003 7,763 7,031 Foreign 2,005 3,924 7,974 16,756 3,254 3,313 6,360 3,461 1,581 4,010 Loans 23,988 26,273 19,226 21,237 5,671 6,864 4,172 5,190 7,461 8,574 International 23,288 26,043 18,981 21,040 5,597 6,765 4,172 5,190 7,46/ 8,479 Foreign 701 23 1 245 197 74 99 ... . 95 East Asia and Pacific 13,983 17,344 1 5.897 26,612 6,027 6,3/14 9,118 9,289 8,400 /0,812 Europe and Central Asia 10,247 7,191 9,642 20,264 2,857 4,949 6,537 2,535 3,407 3,609 Latin Am-er c and the Cariboean 4,358 8,708 9,518 27,338 7,074 7,627 8,959 6,1 16 3,797 3,329 Middle East and NorthnAfrica 128 4,861 3,070 337 50 72 , 5 13 300 1 8 South Asia 1,720 322 201 567 .. 155 412 509 235 594 Sub-Saharan Africa 756 689 1,273 102 . 1 2 90 492 65 300 Severely indebted middle-income 279 2,418 5,053 13,075 2.295 3.954 5.596 3,223 1,242 1,264 Angola 1 15 .. 325 1 2 1 2 Argentina .. 725 1,529 6,473 53 1 2,092 3,440 1,410 914 819 Bolivia I10 Brazil .. 1,480 3,010 6,449 1,624 1,850 2,155 1,171 288 425 Bulgaria Cameroon 100 Congo .. . . . . 492 Ecuador Jamaica .. 30 Jordan Morocco 52 .. 60 Panamna Pert, . . . . 40 40 20 Poland . 5 9 Syrian Arab Republic . Uruguay 12 104 120 140 140 . 100 Severely indebted low-income 385 lOS 116 72 72 ... . 65 Moderately indebted low-income 1,876 492 316 657 ,. 155 502 509 235 612 Moderately indebted middle-income 19,782 18,490 16,419 34,693 7,554 7,827 11,531 6,656 5,745 7,493 Selected countries, 22,826 27,384 26,863 51,999 12,430 12,345 16,886 14,068 1 1,286 14,305 Algeria .. 61 . .. .. Chile 285 .. 350 775 333 342 100 .. 80 Cnina 1,514 2,595 4,043 6,756 1,836 1,794 1,082 2,549 1,567 2,603 Colombia -. 200 .. 621 325 .. 240 250 150 125 C65te dIlvoire . . . .. .. Hungary 987 1,378 1,446 5,071 281 1,331 2,041 233 242 967 India 1,242 226 201 475 .. 155 320 509 190 594 Indonesia 5,462 5,639 2,641 3,726 773 836 1,691 1,354 1,518 2,183 Korea, Rep. of 3,982 6,437 5,204 7,719 1,893 1,228 3,481 1,656 2,047 2,856 Malaysia 730 512 1,271 1,61 1 394 479 292 801 1,422 903 Mexico 2,350 5,568 3,374 9,751 3,664 1,215 2,71 1 3,085 2,305 1,790 Nigeria Philippines 715 . . 1,250 .. 275 805 154 305 342 Thailand 1,465 1,907 2,718 5,550 1,132 1,701 1,767 2,637 1,451 J,925 Turkey 2,498 2,280 4,580 5,763 1,344 920 2,169 842 9 Venezuela 1,595 58' 1,035 2,931 457 2,068 187 Offshore banking centers 4,634 2,491 2,058 9,476 1,288 910 5,492 1,362 1,745 2,614 Oil exporters 6,862 5,923 4,445 3,503 605 2,152 312 792 1,047 190 DRS reporters 4,961 1,018 1,460 3,157 485 2,080 312 492 300 190 OECD countries 308,764 368,375 392,920 510,550 137,237 127,100 105,205 125,069 101,745 130,672 Multilateral inscitutions 15,418 15,000 20,874 20,71 1 3,157 5,583 4,041 3,042 2,019 2,743 Other 644 1,006 1,961 3,037 1,423 1,~084 346 200 600 953 Totalb 36 1,489 432,470 458,275 6 19,986 159,442 153,908 140,71 1 149,487 123,129 156,649 Not available. Note: See country classifications at the end of statistical append x. a. Most of these countries are also ncluded in the indebted country groups. b. Includes all developing countries, offshore banking centers, OECD countries, multilateral ristitutions, and the category "other.' Source: OECD, F,nosciol Scatistics Monthly, Port i 28 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.6 SECONDARY MARKET DEBT PRICES Percentage of face value Country group or country 1992Q2 i 992Q3 1 992Q4 1 993QI i 993Q2 1993Q3 1993Q4 1994Q I 1994Q2 1 994Q3 1994Q4 Severely indebted middle-income Angola 24 25 22 20 1 8 1 8 1 8 20 20 18 IS Argentinaa 50 50 48 50 53 61 69 52 50 51 41 Bolivia 12 IS 16 16 16 .. .. .. Braz5ll 33 33 30 30 39 46 53 41 44 40 Bulgaria 17 16 13 14 21 26 41 35 25 45 45 Cameroon 10 12 12 13 14 13 IS 23 16 17 10 Congo 5 6 6 6 8 9 9 13 13 13 1 1 Ecuador' 30 27 28 27 32 34 52 40 40 33 29 Jamaica 74 74 71 76 79 76 76 85 83 83 83 Jordan 34 34 35 35 35 44 52 48 47 48 42 Morocco 46 47 47 52 67 72 81 64 72 72 66 Panama 32 33 29 30 32 38 61 54 49 59 53 Peru IS 15 19 24 32 43 68 46 48 60 56 Poland 23 26 25 28 32 35 50 32 35 37 33 Uruguay' 70 75 75 65 72 80 .. .. Other selected countries Albania .. .. .. .. 5 5 10 12 16 16 Algeria 87 92 91 95 100 .. 64 48 43 46 30 Chile 89 91 91 92 93 94 95 94 95 95 95 Costa Ricae 59 63 60 64 68 75 82 69 66 66 66 Coted'lvoire 9 7 5 6 8 13 18 20 18 19 18 Egypt 47 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 47 48 Honduras 31 33 35 31 31 31 31 34 39 36 36 Mexicod 65 66 65 70 73 76 84 69 63 66 53 Nicaragua 9 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 Nigeria 40 34 39 42 42 53 60 42 40 39 39 Philippines' 59 57 57 64 68 77 82 66 63 65 59 Senegal 37 . .. 23 .. 32 38 34 31 36 36 Venezuelad 63 62 57 59 68 70 74 49 49 49 45 Not available. Note: Bid pnce. a. Guaranteed Refinancing Agreement (GRA). Prices after March 1993 refer to par bonds offered under the Brady in tiative. b. Multi-Year Deposit Facility Agreement (MYDFA). Prices after Apr 1 1994 refer to par bonds offered under the Brady initiative. c. Multi Year Retnancing Agreement (MYRA). d. Prces refer to par bonds offered under the Brady in tiative. e. Prices refer to Series A par bonds offered under the Brady initiative. f. Public sector restructured debt, including Central Bank of the Phil ppines. Prices refer to restructured loans offered under the Brady initiative. Source: Salomon Brothers, Euroweek, LDC Debt Report, Intemotionol Financing Review, and World Bank data, FEBRUARY 1995 29 STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.7 EMERGING STOCK MARKETS Market capitalization Value of stock traded Price-eamings ratio (US$ millions) (US$ millions) (percent) Economy 1994Q I 1994Q2 i994Q3 1994QI 1994Q2 1994Q3 1994Q I 1994Q2 1994Q3 Argentina 41,569 41,291 47,188 4,309 2,284 2,068 32 27 27 Brazil 130,465 105;918 194,410 21,985 17,374 28,417 20 14 20 Chile 45,383 52,080 62,735 1,239 926 1,273 21 20 24 Colombia 14,330 13,595 16,105 576 512 614 32 31 25 Greece 13,521 12,475 14,055 2,103 1,035 945 12 10 10 Hungary 1,173 1,089 1,536 139 25 67 78 -73 -63 India 110,653 127,865 1 33,943 7,453 4,280 6,578 43 37 37 Indonesia 31,479 32.315 43,976 3,695 2,215 2,809 24 23 22 Jamaica 1,495 1,491 1,418 22 64 41 8 8 7 Jordan 5,146 5,026 4,714 261 123 140 18 23 21 Korea,Rep.of 143,889 159,992 183,295 70,530 61,641 61,140 26 31 36 Malaysia 176,816 185,130 229,272 39,002 18,605 43,611 35 33 35 Mexico 186,302 174,582 204,933 27,226 17,653 23,027 16 17 19 Nigeria 2,166 2,385 2,418 8 5 3 8 8 5 Pakistan 13,969 13,217 12,969 794 767 844 28 23 25 Peru 6,249 5,848 8,022 951 630 623 22 31 60 Philippines 34,980 40,574 52,570 2,744 2,621 4,382 33 30 33 Poland 4,888 2,612 3,219 2,560 1,015 1,050 37 21 18 Portugal 14,831 13,746 15,591 1,533 821 1,171 21 21 22 SriLanka 3,151 2,701 3,328 313 122 167 28 24 27 Taiwan (China) 170,186 188,627 222,988 162,299 155,710 223,878 31 29 35 Thailand 105,120 1 15,730 143,245 26,225 14,244 25,162 22 22 25 Turkey 16,109 16,313 20,990 6,776 2,625 6,406 1 1 16 26 Venezuela 6,567 3,849 4,512 688 266 97 15 14 14 Zimbabwe 1,865 1,763 1,983 80 38 26 14 13 12 Total 1,282,302 1,320,214 1,629,415 383,511 305,601 434,539 635 453 522 Not available, a. Data for Malaysian- ncorporated companies only. Source: Intemational Finance Corporation, Emerging Stock Markets Factbook. 30 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.8 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS (US$ millions) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 i 994a All developing countries 10253.3 14576.1 21181.7 25687.1 2671 1.7 36810.1 47076.4 66614.0 77918.4 East Asia and Pacfic 3550.4 4508.8 7610.9 9094.5 11071.1 13960.7 20887.4 36504.5 42717.0 Europe and Central Asia 844.1 1302.3 2260.4 3480.9 4711.7 7011.5 8529.7 9630.7 11133.9 Latin America and the Caribbean 3672.2 5790.9 7955.2 8155.1 7937.5 12288.8 13631.3 1 61 39.3 18875.0 Middle Eastand NorthAfrica 1241.6 1160.0 1882.8 1965.7 1596.7 1211.2 1582.8 1716.8 2107.0 South Asia 261.7 409.6 326.3 486.9 540.3 456.5 622.8 840.9 845.0 Sub Saharan Africa 683.3 1404.5 1146.1 2504.0 854.4 1881.4 1822.4 1781.8 2240.5 Severely indebted middle-incomeb 1347.9 1816.9 4646.6 2870.1 2983.4 5009.5 7558.8 10448.1 11032.0 Angola 234.0 119.0 131.0 200.0 -334.8 664.5 288.0 300.0 Argentina 574.0 -19.0 1 47.0 1028.0 1836.0 2439.0 4179.0 6305.0 Bolivia 10.0 38.1 -10.1 -24.4 27.2 52.0 93.1 150.0 Brazil 320.0 1225.0 2969.0 1267.0 901.0 972.0 1454.0 802.0 Bulgaria 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 56.0 42.0 55.4 Cameroon 19.0 12.0 67.3 -87.0 -57.0 -16.7 -17.3 -81.0 Congo 22.4 43.4 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ecuador 70.0 75.0 80.0 80.0 82.0 85.0 95.0 1 15.0 Jamaica -4.6 53.4 -12.0 57.1 137.9 127.0 86.5 139.2 Jordan 22.8 39.5 23.7 -1.3 37.6 -1 1.9 40.7 -33.5 Morocco 0.5 59.6 84.5 167.1 165.1 319.9 423.6 522.4 Panama -62.2 56.8 -51.7 36.6 -17.6 -30.3 -1.8 -41.2 Peru 22.0 32.0 26.0 59.0 41.0 -7.0 127.0 349.0 Poland 16.0 12.0 15.0 1 1.0 89.0 291.0 678.0 1715.0 Syrian Arab Republic 65.0 7.0 121.0 74.0 71.0 62.0 67.0 70.0 Uruguay 37.0 50.1 46.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.8 Severely indebted low-income 227.8 1043.5 570.7 2256.4 1071.2 1101.2 1309.1 1375.6 1588.5 Moderately indebted low-income 1487.2 1286.9 1470.6 1748.0 1214.5 687.3 983.8 1188.5 1210.0 Moderately indebted middle-income 3682.0 5750.8 6402.4 8250.2 8237.4 13825.0 13994.7 15661.5 19308.0 Other selected countries' 7478.6 10166.2 12505.4 18032.5 17049.9 24649.4 30726.0 47494.4 55878.0 Ageria 5.3 3.7 13.0 12.1 0.3 1 1.6 12.0 15.0 Chile 116.0 230.0 141 .0 1289.0 590.0 523.0 699.0 841.0 China 1875.0 23 14.0 3 194.0 3393.0 3487.0 4366.0 11156.0 25800.0 Colombia 674.0 319.0 203.0 576.0 500.0 457.0 790.0 850.0 C6te d'lvoire 70.7 87.5 51.7 18.5 31.6 80.8 77.1 30.4 Egypt 1217.4 947.7 1190.0 1250.2 734.0 253.0 459.0 493.0 Hungary 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1462.1 1479.2 2349.0 India 118.0 212.0 91.0 252.0 238.0 141.0 151.0 273.0 Indonesia 258.0 385.0 576.0 682.0 1093.0 1482.0 1777.0 2004.0 Korea 435.0 601.0 871.0 758.0 715.0 1 116.0 550.0 516.0 Malaysia 488.9 422.7 719.4 1667.9 2332.5 3998.5 4469.3 4351.0 Mexico 1523.0 3246.0 2594.0 3037.0 2632.0 4762.0 4393.0 4901.0 Nigeria 166.8 602.7 376.9 1882.3 587.9 712.4 896.6 900.0 Philippines 127.0 307.0 936.0 563.0 530.0 544.0 228.0 763.0 Thailand 262.5 351.9 1 105.4 1775.5 2443.6 2014.0 2115.8 2400.0 Turkey 125.0 1 15.0 354.0 663.0 684.0 810.0 844.0 636.0 Venezuela 16.0 21.0 89.0 213.0 451.0 1916.0 629.0 372.0 Not available Note: Table includes data for 154 developing countries of which 137 report to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System a. estimate b. Aggregate total includes non-DRS economies. c. These countries are also inc/uded in the indebted country groups. Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System; IMF data FEBRUARY 1995 31 STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A.9 TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT US$ millions Countr,y group or country 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994a All developing countries 1,374,794.5 1,426,929.5 1,539,289.8 1,626,735.3 1,695,755.4 1,81 1,775.5 1,944,595.0 Long-term 1,126,897.4 1,150,566.8 1,226,314.9 1,285,902.3 1,328,263.3 1,423,993.1 1,537,720.9 Official 518,601.1 551,145.1 613,957.5 663,119.1 679,857.7 729,148.0 780,435.7 Private 608,296.2 599,421.8 612,357.4 622,783.3 648,405.7 694,845.1 757,285.2 Short-term 212,695.6 244,286.8 278,323.3 302,704.6 329,227.3 348,869.1 366,182.2 IMFcrediit 35,201.5 32,075.9 34,651.5 38,128.4 38,264.6 38,913.3 40,692.0 East Asia and the Pacific 232,308.8 237,060.1 268,417.1 301,610.1 33 1,198.9 367,716.4 415,213.2 Europe and Central Asia 237,531.4 256,493.0 286,452.7 31 1,258.8 332,982.4 369,843.5 402,646.8 Latin America and the Canbbean 455,724.2 451,939.8 476,029.1 490,557.6 499,962.5 525,747.3 546,981.0 Middle East and North Africa 185,828.1 193,953.7 188,662.1 193,446.6 195,014.5 201,957.7 2 13,262.6 South Asia 97,400.4 114,091.7 1 27,525.5 1 33,586.6 141,237.1 146,123.5 155,840.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 166,001.6 173,391.2 192,203.2 196,275.5 195,359.8 200,387.2 210,651.3 Severely indebted middle-income 378,084.3 391,627.9 412,346.4 422,435.4 426,719.8 445,369.9 456,681.0 Angola 4,979.5 6,621.5 8,041.7 8,510.9 9,533.3 9,654.8 Argentina 58,740.8 65,256.7 62,233.3 65,396.4 67,770.2 74,472.9 Bolivia 4,901.6 4,135.5 4,278.2 4,076.0 4,220.1 4,212.5 Brazil 115,71 1.5 11 1,372.5 116,417.2 117,350.3 121,063.4 132,749.0 Bulgaria 8,933.9 10,127.0 10,871.2 11,973.4 12,151.8 12,249.6 Cameroon 4,188.8 4,814.3 5,982.1 6,162.1 6,529.6 6,601.2 Congo 4,094.7 4,279.5 4,930.9 4,817.2 4,751.0 5,070.7 Ecuador 10,745.1 11,317.4 12,109.3 12,468.1 12,279.9 14,109.8 Jamaica 4,568.8 4,573.6 4,662.9 4,516.4 4,393.8 4,279.0 Jordan 5,732.6 6,466.6 7,275.7 7,786.5 7,183.6 6,972.0 Morocco 21,025.6 21,639.7 23,531.6 21,567.4 21,598.9 21,430.2 Panama 6,066.4 6,318.1 6,678.6 6,733.0 6,486.4 6,802.2 Peru 18,245.3 18,583.3 20,068.5 20,719.8 20,293.1 20,328.3 Poland 42,102.9 43,096.3 49,366.3 53,602.7 48,694.7 45,305.6 Syrian Arab Republic 16,544.0 17,389.4 17,068.0 18,942.2 19,016.1 19,975.3 'Uruguay 3,820.8 5,245.7 5,849.6 6,148.6 6,658.8 7,259.4 Severely indebted low-income 161,615.2 171,680.8 191,174.2 195,931.2 196,414.5 201,655.8 209,313.8 Moderately indebted low-income 146,794.6 162,983.5 165,626.0 172,043.3 180,091.0 185,197.3 197,789.6 Moderately indebted middle-income 440,782.8 451,898.4 500,736.0 536,252.4 567,066.3 603,356.1 648,713.4 Other selected countriesb 613,386.8 623,351.8 676,890.9 724,328.1 760,324.5 820,741.6 899,051.1 Algeria 26,042.6 27,096.4 27,857.7 28,198.8 26,812.7 25,757.5 Chile 19,581.9 18,032.3 19,227.2 17,946.9 19,133.9 20,637.2 China 42,396.0 44,856.1 52,632.8 59,642.3 69,186.8 83,799.5 Colombia 16,994.7 16,877.9 17,231.7 17,337.9 17,197.0 17,172.8 Cote d'lvoire 12,574.1 14,055.9 16,621.1 17,557.3 17,987.2 19,146.0 Egypt 52,676.9 51,713.4 40,455.2 41,019.4 40,516.6 40,626.2 Hungary 19,609.5 20,396.7 21,276.5 22,624.1 21,975.1 24,770.9 India 58,443.4 73,392.6 81,994.1 83,952.1 90,130.6 91,781.3 Indonesia 54,095.4 56,169.5 66,852.7 76,090.6 83,754.9 89,539.2 Korea, Rep. of 35,716.2 32,798.6 34,986.6 39,733.9 44,156.9 47,202.6 Malaysia 18,567.0 16,277.7 16,079.5 17,81 1.3 19,959.1 23,334.9 Mexico 99,212.7 93,837.6 106,025.8 115,362.1 113,423.4 1 18,027.6 Nigeria 31,245.8 31,996.7 34,537.7 34,436.1 30,998.3 32,531.1 Philippines 29,008.8 28,719.8 30,612.2 32,454.4 32,102.0 35,269.4 Thailand 21,673.6 23,452.1 28,264.1 35,954.1 39,612.1 45,819.3 Turkey 40,810.6 41,301.6 49,065.6 50,085.2 55,604.4 67,861.5 Venezuela 34,737.6 32,376.9 33,170.4 34,121.6 37,773.5 37,464.6 Note: Table includes data for 154 developing countres, of which 1 37 report to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System. See table A. I I for country classifications. a. Projection. b. Most of these countries are also included in the indebted country groups. Source: World Bank, Debtor Reporting System. 32 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A. 10 AGGREGATE NET LONG-TERM RESOURCE FLOWS US$ millions Type offinonce 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994a Officialdevelopmentfinance 33,437.3 37,833.3 42,876.5 43,351.6 42,427.5 42,556.1 57,944.1 61,769.5 50,305.3 53,910.2 54,399.5 Official development assistance 21,176.5 26,618.6 29,317.8 33,497.4 36,391.3 36,933.5 44,868.0 47,802.3 43,049.8 42,413.7 44,586.2 Offcial grants' 12,572.8 14.670.8 16,074.3 16,913.2 18,369.0 19,184.8 28,743.0 32,555.8 29,875.9 30,117.2 30,483.5 Oflicial concessional loans 8,603.7 11.947.8 13,243.5 16,584.2 18,022.3 17,748.7 16,125.0 15,246.5 13,173.9 12,296.5 14,102.7 Bilateral 4,948.8 7,966.2 8,604.9 10,929.0 12,668.3 12,437.4 9,809.2 8,535.0 5,867.8 5,299.6 Multilateral 3,654.9 3,981.6 4,638.6 5,655.2 5,354.0 5,311.3 6,315.8 6,711.5 7,306.1 6,996.9 Official nonconcessional loans 12,260.8 11,214.7 13,558.7 9,854.2 6,036.2 5,623.1 13,076.0 13,967.2 7,255.5 11,496.5 9,813.3 Bilateral 3,448.7 2,361.8 3,1 16.4 597.0 256.0 -788.1 4,191.3 5,687.0 1,863.4 4,042.0 Multilateral 8,812.1 8,852.9 10.442.3 9,257.2 5,780.2 6,411.2 8,884.7 8,280.2 5,392.1 7,454.5 Private debt flows 25,983.4 21,824.4 10.889.5 9,848.4 12,741.6 12,763.5 15,061.1 18,574.3 41,476.6 45,653.9 55,555.2 Bonds -117.4 5,610.8 757.5 1,049.9 2,888.7 5,284.5 3,418.9 12,481.6 12,943.7 42,046.2 Commercial banks 21,159.0 8,494.9 3,258.6 2,992.8 7,316.6 865.9 120.3 3,968.3 12.835.8 -2,199.5 Suppliers 774.6 -244.2 828.6 991.1 -885.5 1,073.3 7,300.6 -2,167.8 -16.0 1,993.9 Other private 4,167.2 7,962.9 6,044.8 4,814.6 3,421.8 5,539.8 4,221.3 4,292.2 15,713.1 3,813.3 Foreigndirectinvestment 9,437.3 11,329.7 10,253.3 14,576.1 21,181.7 25,687.1 26,711.7 36,810.1 47,076.4 66,614.0 77,918.4 Portfolioequityflows 150.0 138.0 606.0 761.0 1,096.0 3,485.9 3,773.6 7.552.2 14,172.2 46,933.7 39,450.1 Aggregate net resource flows 69,008.0 71,125.4 64,625.3 68,537.1 77,446.8 84,493.1 103,490.4 1 24,706.1 1 53,030.5 213,111.8 227,323.2 Aggregate net transfers 411.4 286.2 -3,898.4 -1i597.0 -1,142.1 7,198.6 26,209.6 45,837.8 74,406.6 132,225.7 137,457.4 Memo items Privategrants 2,600.0 2,900.0 3,300.1 4,000.0 4,300.1 4,000.0 4,890.0 5,199.8 5,800.0 6,300.1 7,000.1 Net use of IMF cred¢ts' 3,567.3 -155.0 -3,271.5 -6,301.7 -5,491.9 -2,329.5 127.9 3,150.4 1,151.8 781.6 526.0 Real aggregate net resource flows 88,699.2 92,974.4 81,700.8 79,417.3 84,548.9 91,048.6 105,710.3 127,51 1.4 154,109.3 222,687.4 227,323.2 Import price index 77.8 76.5 79.1 86.3 91.6 92.8 97.9 97.8 99.3 95.7 100.0 .. Not available. Note: Table incudes data for 154 developing countries, of which 37 report to the World Bank Debtor Report ng System. See table A. I I for country classificaions a. Projection. b. Excludes technica cooperation grants. c.includes IMF Trust Fund and Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility. Source: World Bank, Debtor Reporting System; OECD; data on foreign direct nvestement are from the IMF. FEBRUARY I i795 33 STATISTICAL APPENDIX COUNTRY GROUPS East Asia and Pacific Former Yugoslavia* Colombia* Iraq** Ethiopia* Amencan Samoa Georgia* Costa Rica* Jordan* Gabon* Cambodia** Gibraltar** Cuba** Libya** Gambia, The* China* Greece** Dominica* Morocco* Ghana* Fiji* Hungary* Dominican Republic* Oman* Guinea* Guam Isle of Man Ecuador* Saudi Arabia** Guinea-Bissau* Indonesia* Kazakhstan* El Salvador' Syrian Arab Republic* Kenya* Kiribati** Kyrgyz Republic* French Guiana Tunisia* Lesotho* Korea, D.P,R. of** Latvia* Grenada* Yemen* Madagascar* Korea, Rep. of' Lithuania* Guadeloupe Malawi* Lao P.D.R.* Macedonia FYR* Guatemala* South Asia Mali* Malaysia* Malta* Guyana* Afghanistan** Mauritania* Marshall Islands Moldova* Haiti* Bangladesh* Mauritius* Micronesia Poland* Honduras* Bhutan* Mayotte Mongolia* Portugal* Jamaica* India* Mozambique* Myanmar' Romania* Martinique Maldives* Namibia** New Caledonia** Russian Federation* Mexco* Nepal* Niger* Papua New Guinea* Slovak Republic* Nicaragua* Pakistan* Nigeria* Philippines* Slovenia* Paraguay* SriLanka* Reunion Solomon Islands* Tajikistan* Peru* Sub-Saharan Africa Rwanda* Thailand* Turkey* Puerto Rco Angola* Sao Tome and Principe* Tonga* Turkmenistan* St. Kitts and Nevis* Benin* Senegal* Viet Nam** Ukraine* St. Lucia* Botswana* Seychelles* Western Samoa* Uzbekistan* St. Vincent* Burkina Faso* Sierra Leone* Suriname** Burundi* Somalia* Europe and Latin America and Trinidad and Tobago* Cameroon* South Africa** Central Asia the Caribbean Uruguay* Cape Verde* Sudan* Albania* Antigua and Barbuda** Venezuela* Central African Republic* Swaziland* Azerbaijan* Argent na* Belarus* Aruba Middle East Chad* Tanzania* Bulgaria* Belize* and North Africa Comoros* Togo* Croatia* Bolivia* Algeria* Congo* Uganda* Czech Republic* C6te d'lvoire~~~~~~~~~~~~* Zaire* Czech Republic* Brazil* Egypt, Arab Rep. of' CD'ivout re Estonia* Chile* Iran, Islamic Rep. of* Djibouti* Equatorial Guinea* Zimbabwe* Severely indebted Syrian Arab Republic Madagascar Moderately indebted Antigua and Batbuda** middle-income Uruguay Mali low-income countriesa Chile countriesa.b Mauritania Albania Colombia Angola Severely indebted low- Mozambique Bangladesh Costa Rica Argentina income countriesa Myanmar Benin Dominican Republ c Bolivia Afghanistan- Nicaragua Chad Gabon Brazil Burundi Niger Comoros Gibraltar-* Bulgaria Central African Republic Niger a Egypt, Arab Rep. of Greece** Cameroon Cste dIvoire Rwanda Gambia, The Hungary Congo Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome and Principe India Indonesia Cuba** Ethiopia Sierra Leone Ma awi Mexico Ecuador Ghana Somal a Nepal Papua New Guinea Iraq** Guinea Sudan Pakistan Philippines Jamaica Guinea-Bissau Tanzania Togo Russian Federation Jordan Guyana Uganda Zimbabwe Senegal Morocco Honduras Viet Nam** Tunisia Panama Kenya Yemen Moderately indebted Turkey Peru Lao P.D. R. Za re middle-income Venezuela Poland Liberia Zambia countriesa Western Samoa Aigeria Offshore banking Hong Kong Vanuatu* Congo* Oman* centers' Lebanon* Former Soviet Union* Qatar Bahamas Liberia* Oil exporters Gabon* Saudi Arabia** Bahrain** Macao** Algeria* Iran, Islamic Rep. of' Trinidad and Tobago* Barbados* Netherlands Antilles- Angola* Iraq'* United Arab Emirates Bermuda Panama* Bahrain* Libya- Venezuela* Cayman Islands Singapore Brunei Nigera* * DRS reporter. ** Non-DRS economy. The remaining countres include selected high-income and non-OECD middle-income countries. The Debtor Reporting System (DRS), set up in 1951 to montor staitiics on the external debt ofdeveloping countries, is maintained by the staffofthe Internatonal Finance Division ofthe World Bank's International Economrcs Department. The World Bank is the sole repository for these statistics on a oan-by-loan bas s. Note Country group compost on has been modified to refect the annual updating of GNP per capita and related debt indicators. a. All countries n the group are DRS reporters, except those for wh ch it is otherwise indicated. b. Indebtedness crteria are cons stent w th those appear ng in the Word Debt Tables 1994-95. c. Offshore banking centers are not included in any other country group except for oi exporters. 34 FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES World Bank quarterlies Commodity Markets and the ir-------------------------------------------- i Commodity Markets and the U Yes, please enter my subscription for the Developing Countries iWorld Bank quarterlies, as indicated Not just the facts, unbiased analyses. The World Bank isn't in the ' business of selling commodities. 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A statistical appendix includes tables with invaluable time- Cut out form above and mail to: series data on external debt, foreign direct investment, commercial The World Bank bank claims on developing countries, secondary market price of de- PO Box 7247-7956 veloping-country debt, funds and loans raised on international cap- Philadelphia, PA 19170-7956 ital markets, and more. USA Issued February, May, August, and November. To have your order shipped faster, call 201-476-2192 to charge by credit Approximately 40 pages/lISSN 1020-0975 card, or send this completed order coupon by facsimile to 201-476-2197. FINANCIAL FLOWS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES A WORLD BANK QUARTERLY Financial Flows and the Deueloping Countries is produced by the International Finance Unit of the International Economics Department of the World Bank. For information about the contents, call Punam Chuhan 202-473-3922 or fax 202-522-3277. 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