The World Bank Report No: ISR13635 Implementation Status & Results OECS Countries Regional Disaster Vulnerability Reduction APL1 - Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (P117871) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: Regional Disaster Vulnerability Reduction APL1 - Grenada Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 6 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 16-Aug-2014 and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (P117871) Country: OECS Countries Approval FY: 2011 Product Line: IBRD/IDA Region: LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Lending Instrument: Adaptable Program Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Key Dates Board Approval Date 23-Jun-2011 Original Closing Date 31-Dec-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date 15-May-2014 Last Archived ISR Date 25-Nov-2013 Effectiveness Date 18-Oct-2011 Revised Closing Date 31-Dec-2018 Actual Mid Term Review Date 19-May-2014 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Program aims at measurably reducing vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change impacts in the Eastern Caribbean Sub-region. The objective of the Project in Grenada is to measurably reduce vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change impacts in Grenada and in the Eastern Caribbean Sub-region. The objective of the Project in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is to measurably reduce vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change impacts in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and in the Eastern Caribbean Sub-region. The achievement of the Program Development Objectives of the Regional Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Program (RDVRP) would be measured using the following key indicators: (a) Reduced risk of OECS population to failure of public buildings and infrastructure due to natural hazards or climate change impacts; and (b) Increased capacity of OECS Governments to identify and monitor climate risk and impacts. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Component 1 - Prevention and Adaptation Investments 42.70 Component 2 - Regional Platforms for Hazard and Risk Evaluation, and Applications for Improved 37.60 Public Disclosure Copy Decision Making Component 3 - Natural Disaster Response Investments 3.00 Component 4 - Project Management and Implementation Support 4.40 Payment of CCRIF Insurance Premium 2.00 Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Page 1 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR13635 Previous Rating Current Rating Overall Risk Rating Moderate Public Disclosure Copy Implementation Status Overview During the current ISR reporting period, a mid-term review (MTR) for the project were carried out in May (Grenada) and June (SVG) 2013 to review implementation of all project components, with an emphasis on assessing the project's progress in reaching its goals (as stated in its project development objectives, PDO), including achievement of project indicators (PDO indicators and intermediary level indicators) and assess commitment and disbursement levels. The portfolios of planned/pending activities, including costing of each activity were also thoroughly reviewed, in light of the remaining project budget and implementation period. The MTR findings are summarized below: Grenada: Overall Project Performance: Overall, the Mid-term Review concluded that implementation of the RDVRP is well underway and there are no anticipated impediments towards achieving the Project Development Objective (PDO). The indicators reflected in the Project Results Framework remain relevant and achievable. The Project is on track to be completed before the closing date. All design and supervision contracts for civil works sub-projects are under contract with the exception of Lance and Hubble Bridges and St Johns River Flood Mitigation. Currently the Project has disbursed US$4.8 million (17%) with another US$3 million committed under contract. Disbursement is expected to pick up later in calendar year 2014 with a spike in early to mid-2015 as construction of civil works commences. The Disbursement projection has been updated/revised, as the current projections were ambitious and not reflective of a typical disbursement time frame for a Project with a large civil works component. The MTR noted cost overruns in all design and supervision contracts – of around 5% variance from the cost estimates within the procurement plan - and the Bank team acknowledged that this was being experienced across the region. As result of overruns and due to inflation (11% accumulated over two and a half years) there is financing shortfall of an estimated US$4,514,943 based on actual contracts and revised cost-estimates for all Project works, goods, and consulting services. In view of the financing shortfalls, it was concluded that some activities will have to be canceled or alternatively financed through other sources of funding via the additional finance being prepared. The Government will further discuss priorities as well as funding options, and will indicate to the Bank how to proceed during the next mission currently scheduled for early October 2014. SVG: Overall Project Performance: Overall, the Mid-term Review (MTR) concluded that there has been improved progress in project implementation, with an improvement in the disbursement rate and commitments in all components. Current commitments stand at US$ 6.7 million, roughly 30% of the original project amount. Total disbursements to date (as of May 2014) are US$2.9 million, roughly 13% of the original project amount. Pre-engineering and feasibility studies are under implementation for most Works. Technical assistance activities to build capacity around climate resilience and to improve project management are quite advanced. Following the December 2013 floods, and the Government's subsequent declaration of a National Level 2 Disaster on December 26, 2013 component 3 - Natural Disaster Response Investments was triggered and US$1 million dollars were successfully disbursed to meet the immediate disaster response needs. In addition, US$900,000, from cost savings as well as from low-priority projects, was reallocated from the RDVRP to address emergency response. The Project has fully achieved six of the eleven Project indicators and a comprehensive PPCR framework for monitoring and reporting has been development to help track PPCR-specific targets. Public Disclosure Copy An additional financing of US$40.6 million was approved for SVG in May 2014, increasing the Project envelope from US$20.92 million to US$61.52 million and extending the closing date to December 31, 2018. The additional funds would be used primarily for emergency response activities following the December 2013 disaster, scaling up projects under the RDVRP and covering cost overruns. With the additional budget and time line, the Project has sufficient funds to cover all proposed activities and is on track to be completed by its new closing date. Locations Country First Administrative Division Location Planned Actual OECS Countries Not Entered Union Island Page 2 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR13635 Country First Administrative Division Location Planned Actual OECS Countries Not Entered Kingstown Public Disclosure Copy OECS Countries Not Entered Georgetown OECS Countries Not Entered Arnos Vale OECS Countries Not Entered Gouyave OECS Countries Not Entered Constantine OECS Countries Not Entered Chemin River OECS Countries Not Entered Carriacou OECS Countries Not Entered Beausejour Estate OECS Countries Not Entered Dorsetshire Hill OECS Countries Not Entered Gouyave Fish Market OECS Countries Not Entered Milton Cato Memorial Hospital Results Project Development Objective Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Reduced risk of OECS population to failure of Number Value 764.00 764.00 0.00 public buildings and infrastructure due to Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 natural hazards or climate change impacts Comments Reduced risk of Grenada's population to failure Number Value 444.00 444.00 0.00 of public infrastructure due to natural hazards Sub Type Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 or climate change impacts Breakdown Comments Public Disclosure Copy Reduced risk of SVG's population to failure of Number Value 320.00 320.00 0.00 public buildings due to natural hazards or Sub Type Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 climate change impacts Breakdown Comments Increased capacity of OECS Governments to Number Value 6.00 10.00 14.00 identify and monitor climate risk and impacts Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Comments Page 3 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR13635 Numberof Government officials able to produce Number Value 2.00 2.00 8.00 location specific exposure maps Sub Type Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Breakdown Comments Public Disclosure Copy Intermediate Results Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Percentage of public buildings geo referenced Percentage Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 in a national exposure database in SVG Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Comments 0 percent of public buildings All 366 public buildings in in national exposure database SVG have been included in a national exposure database Public building geo spatial information collected Number Value 0.00 366.00 160.00 in SVG Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Comments 0 public buildings in which Geo-spatial information for geo-spatial information has 366 public buildings in SVG been collected has been collected. Number of gabion baskets used in construction Number Value 0.00 0.00 8400.00 of flood mitigation works in SVG Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Comments 0 gabion baskets have been used at the start of the project Number of location specific exposure maps Number Value 0.00 0.00 20.00 completed by staff trained under the Project in Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Grenada Comments Number of Government officials in Grenada Number Value 2.00 2.00 8.00 who complete training on producing location Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 specific exposure maps Comments Designs and Pre engineering/geotechnical Number Value 0.00 0.00 6.00 studies completed for roads and bridges Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Public Disclosure Copy rehabilitated under the Project in SVG Comments 0 designs and Pre- engineering/geotechnical studies are complete Reduced risk of SVGs population to failure of Number Value 30500.00 30500.00 0.00 roads and bridges due to natural hazards or Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 climate change impacts Comments Daily users currently at risk: Increased daily users with the Measurement in 1) Fenton (2) - 500 inclusion of additional roads reduction of 2) South Rover Rd Bridge - and bridges. number of user 10,000 days of roads at Page 4 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR13635 3) Mt Greenan & Spring – decreased capacity 9,800 due to floods, 4) Carriere, Maroon Hill & landslides, or Ginger Village - 10,200 structural failure. Public Disclosure Copy Public building geo spatial information collected Number Value 0.00 0.00 150.00 Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Comments Percentage of public buildings geo referenced Percentage Value 0.00 0.00 100.00 in a national exposure database in Grenada Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Comments Designs and Pre engineering/geotechnical Number Value 0.00 1.00 6.00 studies completed for road protection and Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 bridges rehabilitated under the Project Comments Number of location specific exposure maps Number Value 0.00 4.00 20.00 completed by staff trained under the Project in Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 SVG Comments 0 exposure maps completed by staff trained under the Project Number of Government officials who complete Number Value 2.00 8.00 8.00 training on producing location specific Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 exposure maps in SVG Comments 2 technical officials have completed training on producing location-specific exposure Reduced risk of SVG s population to flooding in Number Value 1700.00 1700.00 0.00 areas with flood mitigation works financed by Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 the Project in SVG Comments 425 households with an average of 4 people per household for a total of 1700 Public Disclosure Copy people Reduced risk of Grenada’s population to failure Number Value 76000.00 76000.00 0.00 of roads and bridges due to natural hazards or Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 climate change impacts Comments Reduced risk of Grenada’s population to Number Value 41200.00 41200.00 0.00 potable water shortage due to natural hazards Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 or climate change impacts Comments Page 5 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR13635 Number of gallons increase of water storage Number Value 0.00 0.00 450000.00 capacity as a result of the Project in Grenada Date 23-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Comments Public Disclosure Copy Increased capacity of communities to respond Number Value 0.00 0.00 6.00 to disaster events Date 17-Dec-2013 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2018 Comments 0 fully operational satellite warehouses located within vulnerable communities Data on Financial Performance (as of 16-Jul-2014) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P117871 IDA-49850 Effective 23-Jun-2011 20-Sep-2011 01-Nov-2011 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 P117871 IDA-49860 Effective 23-Jun-2011 09-Sep-2011 18-Oct-2011 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 P117871 IDA-54500 Not Effective 09-May-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 P117871 TF-10204 Effective 20-Sep-2011 20-Sep-2011 01-Nov-2011 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 P117871 TF-10206 Effective 09-Sep-2011 09-Sep-2011 18-Oct-2011 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 P117871 TF-11131 Effective 23-Jun-2011 20-Sep-2011 01-Nov-2011 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 P117871 TF-11132 Effective 23-Jun-2011 09-Sep-2011 18-Oct-2011 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2016 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P117871 IDA-49850 Effective USD 10.00 10.00 0.00 3.00 6.53 30.00 P117871 IDA-49860 Effective USD 10.92 10.92 0.00 1.86 8.71 17.00 P117871 IDA-54500 Not Effective USD 35.60 35.60 0.00 0.00 35.63 0.00 P117871 TF-10204 Effective USD 8.00 8.00 0.00 1.71 6.29 21.00 P117871 TF-10206 Effective USD 7.00 7.00 0.00 0.71 6.29 10.00 Public Disclosure Copy P117871 TF-11131 Effective USD 8.20 8.20 0.00 1.71 6.49 21.00 P117871 TF-11132 Effective USD 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.31 2.69 10.00 Disbursement Graph Page 6 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR13635 Public Disclosure Copy Key Decisions Regarding Implementation There are no key decisions for disclosure at this time. Restructuring History Level two Approved on 08-May-2012, Level two Approved on 25-Jun-2012, Level 2 CD Decision on 31-May-2013 Related Projects P146768-Regional Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project (Additional Finance), P149259-Regional Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project (Additional Finance) Public Disclosure Copy Page 7 of 7