Document o f The World Bank Group FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 52922-TZ INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA March 2,2010 Eastern Africa Country Management Unit 1 Africa Region International Development Association Eastern and Southern Africa Department Africa and Latin America Region International Finance Corporation This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance o f their official duties. I t s contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. DATE OF CURRENT COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY March 1,2007 GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR July 1 T u n e 30 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as o f February 9,2010) Currency Unit Tanzania Shilling (TSh) US$1.oo TSh 1,349.00 Weights and Measures Metric System ABBREVZATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAA Analytic and Advisory Activity ART Anti-Retroviral Therapy BEST Business Environment Strengthening Program BOT Bank o f Tanzania CAS Country Assistance Strategy CASPR Country Assistance Strategy Progress Report cso Civil Society Organization CPIA Country Policy and InstitutionalAssessment CRW Crisis Response Window DAWASA Dar es Salaam Water and Sewerage Authority DAWASCO Dar es Salaam Water and Sewerage Corporation DB Doing Business DOL Division o f Labor DP Development Partner DPG Development Partners Group DPL Development Policy Lending EAC East Africa Community EPA Economic Partnership Agreement ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program ESW Economic and Sector Work FY FinancialYear GBS General Budget Support HBS Household Budget Survey HD Human Development HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/ Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome IDA InternationalDevelopment Association IFC InternationalFinance Corporation IMF InternationalMonetary Fund FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JAST Joint Assistance Strategy for Tanzania LGA Local Government Authority MDA Ministries, Departments and Agencies MKUKUTA Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza Umaskini Tanzania (Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy for mainland Tanzania) MKUZA Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza Umaskini Zanzibar (Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy for Zanzibar) MoFEA Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs PAF Performance Assessment Framework PFM Public Financial Management PPP Public-Private Partnership PRSC Poverty Reduction Support Credit PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper SME Small Medium Enterprise STATCAP Statistical Capacity Building Project SWAP Sector-wide Approach TA Technical Assistance TANESCO Tanzania Electric Supply Company TMP Tax Modernization Plan TRA Tanzania Revenue Authority TRL Tanzania Railways Limited WBG World Bank Group IDA IFC Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Thierry Tanoh Country DirectorlDirector: John Murray McIntire Jean Philippe Prosper Team Leader Chiyo Kanda Linda Rudo Munyengetenva distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance o f their official duties. I t s contents may not be otherwise disclosed without W o r l d Bank authorization. TANZANIA COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY PROGRESS REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 I1. Overall Economic and Policy Development ........................................................................................ 1 I11 Progress toward CAS Outcomes .......................................................................................................... . 4 I V. Adjustments to the CAS and Progress in Implementation ................................................................... 9 V . Risks ................................................................................................................................................... 14 TABLES Table 1 Macroeconomic Indicators .............................................................................................................. 2 Table 2: Changes in the CAS Lending Program ........................................................................................ 11 ANNEXES Annex 1: Updated CAS Results Matrix ..................................................................................................... 15 Annex 2: Revised CAS Outcomes ............................................................................................................. 24 .. Annex 3: Division o f Labor ........................................................................................................................ 26 Annex 4: Lending Program ........................................................................................................................ 27 Annex 5: All Analytical and Advisory Activities by Cluster FY07-FY 10................................................. 28 Annex 6: Formal Analytical and Advisory Activities by Type .................................................................. 30 Annex 7: Selected Indicators o f Portfolio Performance and Management ................................................ 31 Annex 8: IDA and Grants Operations Portfolio ......................................................................................... 32 Annex 9: Regional Operations Portfolio .................................................................................................... 33 Annex 10: Trust Fund Portfolio ................................................................................................................. 34 Annex 11: IFC Program, FY07-FY 10........................................................................................................ 35 Annex 12: IFC Operations Portfolio .......................................................................................................... 36 Annex 13: Tanzania at a Glance................................................................................................................. 37 Annex 14: Key Economic Indicators.......................................................................................................... 40 Annex 15: Key Exposure Indicators........................................................................................................... 43 Annex 16: Map o f Tanzania ....................................................................................................................... 44 TANZANIA COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY PROGRESS REPORT I. INTRODUCTION 1. This Country Assistance Strategy Progress Report (CASPR) assesses the implementation o f the World Bank's FY2007-10 Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for Tanzania.' The CAS was prepared as part o f the Joint Assistance Strategy for the United Republic o f Tanzania (JAST) jointly with 22 development partners (DPs), aligned with the priorities o f Tanzania's Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategies, known as MKUKUTA for the Mainland and M K U Z A for Zanzibara2The CAS comprised four parts: Part Iwas the national medium-term framework o f development cooperation that laid out key principles and approaches to improve collaboration and aid effectiveness; Part I1 contained a joint country analysis; Part I11was the Joint Program Document; and Part I V described the strategic approach and proposed program for the World Bank Group (WBG).3 This CASPR focuses on Part I V o f the CAS-the WBG program. It describes progress towards CAS outcomes to date, extends the CAS for. one year through FY 11, and presents an updated CAS Results Matrix. 2. The MKUKUTA and MKUZA grouped country development priorities into three clusters: Cluster I - Growth of the economy and reauction in income poverty; Cluster I 1 - Improvement in the quality o f life and social well-being; and Cluster I11 - Governance and accountability. The CAS was designed to support these three clusters through general budget support (GBS), sector investments and programs, and analytical and advisory activities (AAA). 1. 1 OVERALL ECONOMIC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT 3. Tanzania sustained robust growth from 2001 to 2008 fuelled by large debt relief, growth in foreign aid, and higher government spending. The most dynamic sectors since 2000 have been mining, construction, and public administration. Manufacturing, transport, tourism, and the financial sector have also shown solid growth. Inflation was low from 2000 to 2005 but picked up pace from 2006 to 2009. Fiscal policy has been largely prudent accompanied by strong growth in tax revenues. The CAS (Report No. 38625-TZ) i s dated March 1,2007. T h e JAST DPs are: Belgium; Canada; Denmark; European Commission; Finland; France; Germany; Ireland; Italy; Japan; Korea; Netherlands; Norway; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; United Kingdom; United States; United Nations (UNDP, UNICEF, ILO, IFAD, UNFPA, UNIDO, UNAIDS, UNCDF, WFP, UNHCR, FAO, UNESCO, WHO, UN- Habitat); African Development Bank; International Monetary Fund; and World Bank Group. Part Iremains valid and a number o f actions have been taken, led by the GOTDP JAST Working Group, including development o f a dialogue structure, a division o f labor exercise, and preparation o f a technical assistance policy. Part I1 was usehl in laying out joint assessments o f the country situations, but use o f Part I11 (Joint Program Document) has been limited other than being a stock taking o f planned DP support at that time, largely because each DP still has its own programming cycle and instrument. 1 Table 1Macroeconomic Indicators (percent) Calendar Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* 2012* GDPGrowth (2001 constantprices) 7.8 7.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Annual Inflation(CPI, period avg.) 4.0 5.0 7.2 7.0 10.2 11.9 9.9 9.0 8.5 Fiscal Year 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 Domestic Revenue to GDP 11.2 11.9 12.4 14.1 16.0 15.9 16.1 17.0 17.3 Overall budget deficit to GDP -2.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.8 -1.6 -4.5 -6.1 -5.5 -5.3 (after grants) Source: Program Paper for PRSC-7 supplemental financing and Staff data * Projections 4. The recent global financial crisis affected Tanzania's economic performance mainly through the export channel-tourism, cash crops, and regional manufacturing exports-as well as through lower capital flows-foreign assistance and private investment flows. The real GDP growth rate is expected to drop to 5.0 percent in 2009. The most affected sectors have been manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transport, and communications services. As the global economy recovers, foreign investment, trade, and tourism might accelerate; but Tanzania's economic performance could be slow to return to pre-crisis levels. 5. Inflation accelerated since 2005 driven mainly by increased food prices. A recent decline in commodity prices and reduced food shortages in the region have yet to translate into lowered inflationary pressures. Annual inflation for 2009 is estimated at 1 1.9 percent, up from 10.2 percent for 2008 as described in Table 1 above. 6. Exogenous shocks have also increased balance o f payments and fiscal imbalances. The current account deficit sharply increased by about a third to reach 12.5 percent o f GDP in 2008, while it i s projected to improve slightly in 2009 as the continued slowdown o f exports i s expected to be partially offset by lower international o i l prices and a slowdown o f imports o f goods and services. 7. The fiscal deficit after grants in FYO8/09 has increased to 4.5 percent o f GDP from 1.6 percent in the previous year, and i s projected to further worsen to 6.1 percent in FY09/10. This i s due mainly to the government's efforts to mitigate the impact o f the financial crisis by preserving expenditures as budgeted, resulting in a de .facto fiscal stimulus. For FY09/10 government intends to provide additional fiscal stimulus to help mitigate the economic and social impact o f the crisis, while maintaining essential public expenditures and investments. The government's response to the financial crisis has so far not come at the expense o f i t s development program and the budget has remained broadly in line with its poverty reduction objectives. 8. The medium-term growth outlook for Tanzania looks challenging. The international economic environment that sustained Tanzania's growth through high public and private capital flows and high trade volumes may be less favorable, due to the anticipated gradual recovery o f the world economy, and the absorption o f some o f the large imbalances created before and during the crisis (e.g., fiscal deficits in the U S and Europe and increased liabilities o f central banks through quantitative easing). As Tanzania's economy gradually recovers from the external shock, the country continues to face substantial domestic policy challenges. 2 9. Macroeconomic growth has not translated into a corresponding reduction in poverty. The 2007 Household Budget Survey (HBS) reveals disappointing results in poverty reduction since 2001. .Tangible improvements were recorded in ownership o f consumer non-durables, housing quality, and social indicators such as enrollment in primary education. However, progress has been very limited in terms o f basic-needs income poverty. The poverty headcount ratio dropped only marginally from 35.6 percent points to 33.6 percent points. Given substantial population growth, the absolute number o f poor people i s estimated to have increased by 1.3 million. Inequality remained mostly the same with a slight decline in consumption for a small fraction o f households at the very bottom o f the income distribution. 10. I n rural areas the poverty headcount ratio remained practically unchanged even though agricultural GDP i s reported to have grown at around 4-5 percent per year until 2008. Data on rural income growth and productive assets from the HBS suggest that income generation in rural areas has stagnated. Staple crop yields appear to have been flat or declining with agricultural growth primarily driven by extension o f cultivated areas and shifts in the composition o f crop production. Some sub-sectors, particularly coffee and cotton, were seriously affected by the significant drop in international prices due to the global financial crisis. 11. Agriculture employs two-thirds o f the total labor force, which makes the sector central to poverty reduction efforts. In i t s renewed effort to boost this key sector and accelerate poverty reduction, the government recently adopted Kilimo Kwanza, a multi-sectoral development strategy for agriculture. An increased budget allocation for the sector by 1.1 percentage points (from 5.0 percent in FY08/09 to 6.1 percent in FY09/10) w i l l support subsidies for farm input vouchers and strengthen private seed and fertilizer markets, as well as procurement and fiduciary u n i t s in lead ministries. In light o f the global food crisis, the government has also taken steps to improve food security and provide social protection for vulnerable groups. However, in the case o f crops, a slow pace o f Crop Board reforms and new local level regulations and other anti-competitive practices seem to be hindering profitability o f smaller farmers and businesses. 12. Tax and financial sector reform have proceeded positively, but energy and transport infrastructure are among the long-standing constraints impeding faster private sector development. The infrastructure sector i s dominated by large public enterprises often holding monopolistic or semi monopolistic positions such as the national power utility (TANESCO), the two national railway companies (Tanzania Railways Limited - TRL, and Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority - TAZARA), and Dar es Salaam's water utility (Dar es Salaam Water and Sewerage Corporation - DAWASCO). Recently, a new Road Bill has enhanced the road agency's autonomy, while new energy sector legislation accompanied by electricity tariff increases has led to some improvements in TANESCO's financial situation. 13. Despite government's commitment to private-sector-driven growth, Tanzania underperforms in its efforts to create a more attractive business environment. After being one o f the world's top reformers in 2006, Tanzania's Doing Business (DB) ranking dropped to 131" place in the 20 10 Report. During the past 18 months, there have been very little tangible results in improving business and investment ~ l i m a t e .Lack o f reliable electricity i s s t i l l the biggest ~ For instance, a law was just passed to oblige telecom companies to list their shares onto the local stock exchange within three years instead of trying to create an environment that encourages companies to list voluntarily. A Value Added Tax i s being imposed on air freight for the export o f flowers, which affects many small growers. 3 bottleneck identified by the private sector. President Kikwete recently set up a Task Force to improve the DB ranking; the Task Force has prepared a road map with recommended actions for each DB indicator, including actions for immediate implementation. 14. Need for sizable investments and greater efficiency and management s k i l l s call for enhanced Public-Private Partnerships (PPP). However, Tanzania's overall performance in PPP has been weak. Most high-profile PPP attempts have failed to bring on board or sustain private management, lacking consistent high-level government support or falling victim o f vested interests. Cabinet finally approved in October 2009 a long-planned national PPP policy, which i s expected to pave the way for more transparent and effective PPP transactions. 15. Tanzania together with its neighboring countries has made substantial progress in pursuing reforms for the East African Community (EAC). The EAC has ratified the establishment o f the EAC-European Union Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) through a framework agreement (interim EPA) in 2008. On November 20,2009, the member countries signed the EAC Common Market, which w i l l aim to facilitate free movement o f people, capital and services across the region. The full fledged E A C Custom Union came into force on January 1, 20 10, after a five-year transition phase that began in 2005. 16. China has become a major player in Tanzania's economic development owing to flourishing trade between the two countries and China's growing investments and financial and technical assistance. Tanzania has already benefitted from trade with China; and during the next phase there i s likely to be a growing Chinese demand for traditional natural resource dependent commodities and, increasingly, secondary and tertiary products. The Tanzanian workforce holds a comparative advantage in terms o f low-cost labor, but government leadership i s needed to ensure a conducive environment for the private sector and to build capacity to respond nimbly to changes in demand from the global market. 17. Tanzania's population growth, around three percent annually, i s among the highest in the world. Roughly half o f Tanzania's population i s 15 years or younger, which raises the dependency burden and creates additional m e t demand for youth employment. Rapid population growth also undermines the impact o f economic growth on poverty reduction. This i s especially true for the urban areas where population growth happens at a much faster rate than the rest o f the country. The rapid influx o f people increases the stress on institutions already struggling to cope with delivery o f basic services such as sewerage, clean water, schools, and health care. 11 1. PROGRESS TOWARD CAS OUTCOMES 18. Tanzania's performance toward CAS outcomes has been mixed (see Annex 1). While it has made significant strides in improving revenue generation, road quality, secondary enrollment, and infant and under-five mortality rates, progress in some key reform areas has been very slow, such as in improving the business environment, fostering Public-Private Partnerships in major utilities and transport, increasing the quality o f education, reducing maternal mortality, and strengthening public financial management. 4 Cluster I: Growth and Reduction o Income Poverty f 19. The CAS Outcomes under Cluster Iare improvements in: (i) revenue collection efficiency; (ii)doing business environment; (iii) agricultural productivity; (iv) access to and quality o f roads; (v) management o f natural resources; and (vi) quality and access to electricity. 20. Good progress has been recorded in expanding the tax base and revenue collection. The number o f registered taxpayers has nearly doubled since 2006. W h i l e the financial crisis has negatively affected the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) in realizing i t s ambitious revenue collection targets, revenue collection for FY08/09 marked a net growth o f 20 percent compared to FY07/08 or an increase in tax-to-GDP ratio from 14.7 percent to 15.0 percent. 21. Effort to increase access to finance i s yielding some results, albeit slow. Credit extended to the private sector as a percentage o f GDP i s on the increase (9.8 percent in 2006 to 17.3 percent in 2008). The mainstreaming o f micro-credit institutions in the financial sector should facilitate greater access to credit for the poor. A rural finance strategy i s under preparation, coordinated by the Financial Sector Deepening Trust. The recent approval o f a new mortgage and leasing bill, as well as the planned establishment o f a mortgage liquidity facility, will expand long-term financing for housing, previously unavailable to most o f the population. 22. Little progress has been made in improving the overall business environment during the CAS period. The government has been implementing programs to improve the ease o f doing business, such as the Business Environment Strengthening Program (BEST), a Tax Modernization Plan (TMP) and the Second Generation Financial Sector Reform, all supported by the Bank and other DPs through joint financing. However, reforms o f the licensing and regulatory environment have slowed down or in some areas reversed during the CAS period. This i s reflected in the decline o f Tanzania's ranking in Doing Business 2010 report, which triggered the formation o f the task force by the president. The number o f days to start a business f e l l only marginally from 35 in 2006 ' to 29 in 2009, far short o f the CAS target o f 10 days by 2010. Since 2007 dwell time for containers at Dar es Salaam Port has deteriorated, creating additional costs to business. 23. Tanzania's Public-Private Partnership efforts for utilities o r infrastructure entities have a poor track record. Most major infrastructurehtility concessions have either been terminated (water, power), reverted to national ownership (airline, telecommunication), or faced a danger o f negotiation collapse (railways). The container terminal operator in Dar es Salaam Port has remained on private hands but the circumstances regarding contract extension are being questioned. A notable exception i s Songas, a limited liability company, which i s majority owned and operated by a private investor. Supported by the Bank, it has successfully established privately managed gas production and gas-fueled power generation operations, and contributed to expanding access to more affordable electricity. The Financial Sector Support Project and analytical work on infrastructure privatization (2005 and 20 10, forthcoming) provide policy recommendations for quick wins for Tanzania's PPPs. On the regulatory side, the Bank supported the establishment o f an institutional framework for regulations o f the infrastructuredutilities, including institutional development and capacity building o f six regulatory bodiesS5 These regulatory bodies have been These are: Energy and Water Utility Regulatory Authority (EWURA), Fair Competition Commission, Fair Competition Tribunal, Tanzania Civil Aviation Authority, Surface and Marine Transport Regulatory Authority (SUMATRA), and Tanzania Communication Regulatory Authority. 5 firmly established and are performing their prescribed functions, with a reasonable degree o f independence. 24. Marked improvements have been made in the conditions o f the road network in Tanzania, while railways continue to suffer from lack o f effective management and declining business. Since 2005, roads in good and fair condition have increased from 50 percent to 58.5 percent for rural roads, and from 82 percent to 95 percent for trunk and regional roads, well on track for or exceeding the CAS targets. In contrast, the joint venture for the TRL i s in great danger o f unraveling. The TRL's traffic volume has dropped from 1.45 million tons in 2005 to 0.45 million tons in 2009. Recent floods have destroyed several bridges and two stations on the 293 km stretch o f passenger train services between Dar es Salaam and Kilosa, adding another blow to the TRL. 25. Access to electricity has increased (8.2 to 14 percent o f population over the 2005-09 period), but the electrification rate remains low and users face severe and prolonged power outages. These are the result o f procurement scandals related to existing generation projects (e.g., IPTL, Richmond), regional droughts that reduced the hydropower generation outputs, as well as the technical dilapidation and saturation o f the existing transmission and distribution network resulting from decades o f under-investment in the sector. While TANESCO has made some improvements in i t s financial situation, continued efforts to expand the generation capacity and boost operational efficiency (by reducing losses and improving tariff collections) are required to meet the growing demand for power and to reverse operating losses. 26. Irrigated areas have increased by about a quarter (60,000 hectares) between 2005 and 2009, but use o f fertilizers and improved seeds i s low. The input voucher scheme, assisted by the Accelerated Food Security Project, i s expected to boost productivity in targeted districts. Government's strong commitment to Kilimo Kwanza has already been demonstrated in the marked increase in the agricultural budget for FY09/10. Further reforms and short-term measures to remove constraints for smaller farmers and agribusinesses would be crucial to unleash the potential for their entrepreneurships and investments. 27. As part of the effort to improve natural resource management, forest areas under approved management plans, including Community Based Forest Management and Joint Forest Management, have increased by 50 percent between 2006 and 2009. Natural resources are contributing to economic outputs through traditional activities such as forestry, fisheries, mining, and tourism, but could be o f far greater significance. At present the sector i s constrained by shortfalls in governance and law enforcement as well as weak regulatory capacity. 1 Cluster 1 :Improvement o Quality o Life and Social Well Being f f 28. CAS Outcomes under Cluster I1 are improvements in: (i) access to quality post-primary education; (ii) i iHIV prevalence between 15-24 ages; provision and quality o f health services; ( i ) and (iv) access to water and sanitation in ruraVurban areas. 29. Rapid expansion in primary school enrollments has spilled over to unprecedented demand for secondary education, and to some extent higher education. N e t secondary school enrollments rose from 10.3 percent in 2005 to 27.8 percent in 2009, largely driven by community 6 schools that doubled in number between 2006 and 2009. It i s evident that this has posed tremendous pressure on school infrastructure, teaching supplies and staffing; the qualified teachedpupil ratio has deteriorated to 1:57, and most secondary schools are in need o f teaching materials and essential facilities such as laboratories, latrines, and reliable source o f water. Recent evidence has shown that growing pressures on school infrastructure have affected quality through declining completion rates and learning achievements. 30. Driven by a rapidly growing student loan scheme, the share o f higher education in the government budget has crept up by 10 percentage points over the past five years. As such, the secondary education subsector i s under-financed-with i t s share declining from 16 percent in FY07/08 to 12 percent in FY09/1O-to meet the needs o f a rapidly expanding system. The government has been unable to provide capitation grants to schools (Tshs. 25,000 per student) as budgeted. The government i s in the process o f finalizing the Secondary Education Development Program I1 that would address the issues highlighted above and refocus i t s strategy towards a phased, cost-effective and sustainable program. 3 1. Tanzania i s on track for meeting the Millenium Development Goals related to reducing infant and under-five mortality and has made some progress against child malnutrition. Challenges remain, however, in further improving service delivery and health systems management, and expanding protection for catastrophic care for the poor, unemployed, and informal sector workers (including subsistence farmers). Maternal mortality has been persistently high at unacceptable levels, despite the modest increase in the number o f births taking place in health facilities (41 to 52 percent over 2005-09). Human resources for health-in number, skills and geographical distribution-can be the most important supply-side constraint. Other remaining challenges include the supply chain for drugs and medical supplies, and the overall flow o f funds, especially to the lower levels o f care. 32. Tanzania has recorded major progress in its fight against HIV/AIDS. HIV prevalence in the 15-49 age group has declined from 7.0 percent in 2005 to 5.7 percent in 2009. The number o f people on Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) and some behavioral indicators (e.g., increased condom use, reduced numbers o f sexual partners) indicate that prevention and treatment efforts may be having an impact. Yet, significant unmet ART needs s t i l l exist, stigma against HIV/AIDS persists, and some traditional social or religious values hinder behavioral changes that are needed in curtailing HIV transmission. Further improvements in nutrition (including food fortification) would also be critical. 33. After a slight deterioration between 2001 and 2007 (HBS data), access to clean water appears to show signs o f improvements in urban and rural areas. Effort to improve basic sanitation facilities i s facing more difficulties as coverage f e l l from 93 percent in 2007 to 82 percent in 2009. Lack o f systematic planning, monitoring, and reporting hinders effective management, monitoring, and implementation at both central and local levels. The establishment and roll-out o f a management information system i s critical and urgent. DAWASCO has achieved significant gains in service coverage, water quality, and financial sustainability; Revenue collection from water and sewage services has steadily improved and covers more than 80 percent o f all operations and maintenance costs. The joint recovery plan prepared by Dar es Salaam Water and Sewerage Authority (DAWASA) and DAWASCO needs to be implemented and bear fruit to ensure longer- term financial sustainability. 7 1: Cluster 1 1 Governance and Accountability 34. CAS Outcomes under Cluster I11are improvements in: (i) socio-economic basic services and safety net through community participation; and (ii) management, transparency, and accountability o f public resource management. 35. Progress has been noted in the participation o f citizens in local government issues and at the community level. Government has been undertaking reforms o f the public service, which has increased decentralization o f service delivery to Local Government Authorities (LGAs). Inter- governmental transfer from the central to the local governments finances investments at the local level. However, the government often failed to ensure timely and reliable transfers to LGAs, with delays and shortfalls especially during the first two quarters. To strengthen the demand-side accountability, various measures have been introduced such as the publication o f quarterly grant amount transfers to L G A s in national and local newspapers, posting o f local government budgets in public places, and a web-based system (http://www.logintanzania.net) for disclosure o f information on local government finances. The engagement o f the Parliament Oversight Committee by the P F M team has been an important response to the issues o f weak accountability. Other measures to enhance social accountability have been supported by Bank-financed operations such as health, HIV/AIDS, and the Tanzania Social Action Fund; examples include participation o f community members, Civil Society Organizations (CSO), faith-based service providers, and the private sector in health planning and implementation at the local level and introduction o f community score cards. 36. Government has made some progress in improving the efficiency and effectiveness o f government systems, which will have an eventual impact on service delivery. Similarly, the Medium Term Pay Policy targets have been achieved, which contributes towards providing incentives for retention o f qualified staff and meeting the aspirations o f public servants in general for a decent wage. Approval o f a revised Medium-Term Pay Policy has been delayed. 37. Tanzania has taken action in some high profile corruption cases. Following the loss o f over U S $ l l O million from the Bank o f Tanzania's (BOT'S) External Payment Arrears account in 2005, Government has made efforts to retrieve the stolen funds and have implemented an action plan, which includes a refocusing o f B O T core. activities and an agreement between the Ministry o f Finance and Economic Affairs (MoFEA) and B O T on the management o f any remaining claims. Albeit slow in pace, investigations and prosecutions o f high ranking officials and businessmen involved in high profile cases (e.g., B O T External Payment Account, Richmond energy, and Alex Stewart) have sent a signal against impunity o f high-ranking officials. However, for this message to be credible, it is critical to demonstrate continued progress in those cases and apply the rule o f law in a fair and uniform manner. 38. Tanzania has traditionally been rated as having one o f the best public financial management (PFM) systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. The overall fiduciary environment continues to be satisfactory but with some serious concerns. Recent reports have pointed out serious shortcomings that are being addressed.6 In his Audit Report o f March 2009, the Controller Auditor General questioned the very credibility o f the government's annual financial statements due to discrepancies in revenue figures and'ongoing issues with Bank reconciliations. ~~ ~ National Audit Office (NAO) reports, the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Report (PEFAR) for 2008 and 2009, and several other PFM diagnostic reports. 8 The assessment o f the Integrated Financial Management System in 2008 noted major shortcoming in basic accounting operations, including a significant backlog o f unreconciled transactions between the MoFEA and the B O T that had built up since 2000. The Bank and other DPs are supporting the PFM Reform Program through Basket Funding, but there are, ongoing implementation challenges with this program. The legal framework for P F M has improved with the enactment o f a new Audit Act in 2008 and a revision o f the Public Finance Act i s underway. On public procurement reform, after the enactment o f the 2004 Act that i s largely consistent with the Bank's procurement guidelines and the establishment o f the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority in 2005, the government took further steps by establishing complaint mechanisms including Public Procurement Appeals Authority, and established a Procurement Policy Unit within the MoFEA. In judicial reform, the Accountability, Transparency, and Integrity program has encountered a number o f challenges in implementation and progress has been slow. IV. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CAS AND PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTATION 39. The overall objectives set out in the original CAS remain valid and relevant. However, several adjustments in the CAS program were needed to respond to the changing environment and progress on sector levels. Overall, this CASPR introduces the following two adjustments: a) The current CAS period will be extended by one year to cover FY11. The extension i s justified for three reasons. First, the government's preparation o f the next Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) has been delayed; a first draft i s expected by March 2010 at the earliest. Second, general elections are scheduled for October 2010 and the extension will allow the WBG to conclude CAS consultations with the new government. Third, IDA15 resources are fully committed to a firm pipeline o f projects, and the extension will align the new CAS with IDA16. b) The CAS Results Matrix has been revised, updated, and streamlined to improve i t s quality and realism. The original CAS Matrix was rather long and ambitious with 32 CAS Outcomes and 52 indicators. Baseline and targets were missing from some indicators, with data not readily available for others. The revised matrix reflects the changes in the lending program and progress o f implementation, with special attention to attribution to the Bank's interventions. CAS outcomes in the same or related sectors have been consolidated, while some outcomes that were too high or low were either removed or included as milestones. Overambitious targets have been modified to more realistic levels. All indicators have been selected from existing government sources or projects. Annex 1 presents a more streamlined matrix with 12 CAS outcomes with 22 associated indicators. Annex 2 compares the original and revised outcomes, and explains key revisions. 40. A mix o f exogenous and endogenous shocks combined with slower than anticipated reforms has necessitated adjustments to the lending program. Main factors that have triggered such adjustments are: (i) global food and financial crises during 2008-09; (ii) the modest progress in key reforms and governance-related issues; (iii) decrease in the 2008 Country Policy and a Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated I D A 15 allocation to Tanzania for FY09/10; and (iv) rapidly growing regional initiatives. 9 a) The Bank responded promptly to the government's requests to help mitigate the impact of global crises. In the face o f price hikes in food and farm inputs, the Accelerated Food Security Program-a US$220 million package o f an Emergency Recovery Credit and Additional Financing for agricultural and social fund projects-was added to the country program in FY09 under the Global Food Crisis Response Program. To contribute to the government's FY09/10 fiscal stimulus package, a supplemental financing o f US$170 million to PRSC7 was approved in mid-FY10. Under the Crisis Response Window established in December 2009, US$110 million will be provided in FYlO on top o f the regular IDA15 allocation to further scale up irrigation schemes and social safety net for vulnerable groups through public works and to help fill financing gaps in transport and urban infrastructure. b) Grand corruption cases, modest progress in key reforms and mediocre overall performance against the GBS Performance Assessments Frameworks (PAFs) over the past few years have led to a stagnant o r declining level of annual budget support. The CAS envisaged a sharp increase in the share and level o f budget support during the CAS period in light o f the stated government's preference to GBS as a lending modality. However, a series o f grand corruption cases that have surfaced since 2008 negatively affected the level and timing o f GBS for FY09 provided by 14 DPs, including PRSC6.7 Over the past three years, the government has met about half o f the PAF process actions and outcome targets jointly agreed between the government and 14 DPs, resulting in Moderately Satisfactory overall ratings. The PRSC7, projected in the CAS to be US$300 million, was reduced to US$190 million.* The PRSCS i s likely to face a more significant reduction on performance grounds. c) Tanzania's weaker performance led to the decline in Tanzania's 2008 CPIA rating from 3.9 to 3.8, which in turn resulted in a downward adjustment in the expected IDA15 envelope. Despite the slight CPIA decline and unchanged portfolio performance, the governance component, where Tanzania showed the biggest decline, has a higher weight than other components, and the projected total IDA15 resources were reduced by about US$312 million. With an expected frontloading o f about 27 percent for FY09-10, the uncommitted balance available for FYI 1 i s expected to be only about US$270 million, forcing changes in the lending program. As a result, a couple o f FYI 1 pipeline operations w i l l have to be scheduled for early FY12, including PRSC9-the first o f a new programmatic series in support o f GOT's FY11/12 budget. d) Growing regional initiatives and commitment have increased the number and volume o f regional projects for Tanzania (see Annex 9). The government has shown an increased interest in regional projects, recognizing the potential benefits from, for instance, network effects from infrastructure programs and positive externalities from environmental initiatives. In 2007, there were only six regional projects involving Tanzania with a total commitment o f US$68.9 million specifically for Tanzania. B y the end o f FY09, this had grown to eleven projects with Tanzanian commitments o f US$216.4 million (equivalent to about 9 percent o f the country portfolio). Since two-thirds o f regional projects or ' The credit amount was reduced from US$250 million envisaged in the CAS to US$160 million, and Board approval was delayed from the 4" quarter o f FY08 to the lst quarter o f FY09. 8 T h i s includes $100 million reduction on the base figure compared to the CAS projection (Le., $300 million), plus additional $10 million reduction at negotiations because one o f the triggers (business environment) was not met. 10 components are financed through a separate regional IDA envelope, it could have a substantial impact on resource availability for Tanzania. 41. As a result o f the above, investment operations have been scaled up substantially and their sequencing and size have been adjusted to reflect the project readiness and absorptive capacity. Several infrastructure and human development projects have been scaled up from the original plans (e.g., transport, energy, regional communication, health, and secondary education). In addition, several new projects (e.g., housing finance, regional agricultural productivity, backbone transmission, and two urban infrastructure projects) have been added. As a result, the share o f budget support (PRSCs) in the FY07-10 lending program has declined from 50 percent (out o f US$2,290 million) as envisaged in the CAS to 32 percent (out o f total US$2,534.3 million) (see Table 2 and Annex 4).9 Table 2: Changes in the CAS Lending Program CAS Projection CAS Progress Report (US$ million) FY07 FY08 FY09 FYlO FY07 FYO8 FY09 FYlO FYll Budget Support/DPL PRSC 5-8 190 250 300 400 190 350 100 PRSC 7 Supplemental 170 Investment Operations (in CAS) Water Sector Support 200 200 Zanzibar Basic Education 42 42 Central Transport Corridor 148 190 Health Sector Development 60 60 40 Secondary Education 50 150 Science, Tech & Higher Education 140 100 Energy Dev & Access Expansion 47 40 105 25 Performance, Results, Accountability 50 40 Lower Kihansi Envir. Mgmt 3 3.5 Lake Victoria Env. Mgmt (Regional) 10 10.8 Transport Sector Support 220 225 (+30) Sustainable Mgmt of Mineral Res. 20 50 Communication Infra (Regional) 10 58 Agriculture Sector Development 100 30 (35) East Africa Power Pool (Regional) 10 Investment Operations (new) Accelerated Food Security 160 Social Action Fund I1 30 (35) East Africa Agriculture (Regional) 10 Strategic Cities 150 (+lo) Housing Finance 40 TB/Health Systems (Regional) 5 Zanzibar Urban Services 30 STATCAP 30 Backbone Transmission 160 Lake Malawmyasa (Regional) 10 Total (Country IDA only) 640.0 550.0 550.0 550.0 432.0 498.5 698.8 905.0 230.0 *The regional IDA allocations are excluded and the Crisis Response Window (CRW) amount are shown in brackets but not counted in the total. The figures in italics indicate Additional Financing and those shaded are actual approvals. Excluding the regional IDA allocation and the Crisis Response Window. 11 42. The regional integration agenda i s supported largely through projects for trade facilitation, transport, energy, and communication network. The efforts to create a stronger EAC are supported through the East Africa Trade and Transport Facilitation Project and the Regional Trade Facilitation Project. In addition, several studies have been undertaken in support o f Tanzania's efforts to further regional integration. These include among other how to build Tanzania as a regional trade hub, a strategic plan for Export Processing Zones in Tanzania, and a study on non-tariff measures on goods in EAC. A follow up to the latter i s planned for FYI 1 in combination with a study on professional services. Lastly, IFC and Foreign Investment Advisory Services (FIAS) have provided analysis o f the regulatory framework for Special Economic Zones in an effort to assist harmonization o f regulatory frameworks across the member countries o f EAC. 43. IFC's strategy in Tanzania has remained largely unchanged, focusing on financial markets, particularly access to finance for SMEs, as well as support to the infrastructure sector, agribusiness, and tourism. That said, it has adopted an opportunistic approach, looking for investment opportunities across sectors. I t s portfolio has significantly increased from US$3 5 million in February 2007 to US$98 million at the end o f 2009. IFC has forged partnerships with local banks to foster joint ventures aimed at supporting these projects with local currency financing, as well as developing micro- and SME-finance products. The Credit Reference Bureau program provides support to the BOT for the implementation, licensing, and monitoring o f bureaus and the implementation o f a credit reporting system. IFC has been exploring private sector participation in utilities and parastatals, and i s interested in providing finance for Independent Power Producer projects in the country. However, its US$44 million loan to the Tanzania Railway Limited to help rehabilitate and develop i t s railway network has stalled after disbursing a first installment, pending agreement o f a new business plan between the GOTand the operator. In FY 10, IFC has already committed 3 projects for a total o f 8.0 million reflecting a focus on the SME market segment. IFC anticipates that it may commit an additional 4 projects for US$44.3 million before the end o f F Y 10. (See Annex 11 and 12 for the full IFC program). 44. Tanzania has maintained good portfolio performance that stands out in the Africa region (see Annex 7 and 8)'' As o f January 2010, there are 23 active operations with total net commitment o f US$2.47 billion, o f which only one (Accountability, Transparency and Integrity Project) i s in problem status. A restructuring mission i s planned in March 2010 for this project. The disbursement ratio i s the highest in the Africa region (21.7 percent as o f December 31,2009, on an annualized basis), and 100 percent Proactivity and Realism have been maintained over the past three years. During FY07-09, actual disbursements averaged about US$440 million per year, o f which 45 percent was through budget support. The disbursement level i s expected to be maintained or even accelerate over the next two FYs; total disbursement during the first half o f FY 10 amounts to US$478.7 million. Out o f six projects that closed and assessed for outcomes during FY07-09, all but one were rated Moderately Satisfactory or better. During FYIO, three projects closed and four were extended. A Joint Country Portfolio Performance Review in collaboration with the African Development Bank-the first o f i t s kind in Tanzania-was carried out in April 2009. 45. Substantial analytical and advisory (AAA) work has been carried out since 2007, many in close collaboration with other DPs (see Annex 5 and 6). This work includes a series focusing lo The portfolio performance data do not include regional projects since they do not have equivalent indicators and ratings available for individual countries. In addition, IFC's committed portfolio in Tanzania stands at US$98 million as o f December 3 1,2009. 12 on constraints to economic growth and how growth can contribute to a society with less poverty. An extensive number o f short policy notes in specific areas have been produced with the intention to provide key issues, options, and recommendations in a clear but concise and readable manner, for instance in the cashew, charcoal, and coffee sectors. The majority o f AAA has been carried out , under.Cluster I where activities promise greatest benefits to the economy in the short to medium term. At the same time AAA has addressed cross-sectoral issues such as national poverty assessments and PEFAR. Finally, the Bank's AAA has contributed substantially to addressing recent corruption scandals through strengthening o f the Controller Auditor General's office and policy dialogue in connection with triggers for the Poverty Reduction Strategy Credit (PRSC) series. 46. To assist Tanzania in meeting its development goals, the Bank continues to actively coordinate with other development partners and participate in joint development dialogue with the government. Tanzania has an elaborate Dialogue Structure agreed between the Government and DPs, and the Bank has been a very active player in the Development Partner Group (DPG) and many o f the 25 sector or thematic Working Groups. The GOT and DPs undertook an extensive consultations on Division o f Labor (DOL) improve coordination and policy dialogue to (see Annex 3 for an updated DOL matrix). Most major sectors and reform programs undertake joint annual reviews preceding the GBS annual review, and formally adopt or are striving toward Sector- wide Approaches (SWAPS). Currently eight Bank projects channel funds through nine Basket Funding mechanisms to support common programs jointly with other DPs." Over the three fiscal years FY07-09, 45 percent o f total actual disbursement from the country portfolio was made in the form o f budget support (PRSCs or other DPL), with the rest through Basket Funding or project financing. Implementation arrangements for the Bank-financed operations are increasingly being mainstreamed and aligned to the country's institutions and systems; the default mode i s to use existing institutional structures without creating Project Implementation Units. 47. The government has embarked on preparation of the next generation poverty reduction strategy. Currently a joint M K U K U T A and MKUZA review i s underway, including selected analytical work to inform the next poverty reduction strategies. A first draft PRSP i s expected by March 2010 at the earliest. 48. Going forward, the lending program over the remainder of the CAS period will largely focus on infrastructure and human development (HD) sectors, while conducting strategic policy dialogue through GBS, M A , and the existing portfolio. Out o f the pipeline operations planned over the next 16 months, nearly two-thirds o f country IDA resources are earmarked for infrastructure and an additional 18 percent for the HD sectors. The upcoming poverty assessment and associated background studies, which are particularly focused on agriculture, will provide insights on the constraints for poverty reduction. Similarly, a policy note on micro-constraints to growth i s expected to provide complementary analysis on micro-level impediments for growth. Consultations over the joint MKUKUTA and M K U Z A review and the upcoming new PRSP w i l l offer another forum to discuss key reform issues and prioritization for pro-poor growth. Several major lending operations are coming to close in F Y l l and FY12, providing a window o f opportunity to rethink the next phase o f the country program. Extensive internal and external ~ l1 Sectors/programs in which the Bank channels funds through Basket Fund mechanism with other DPs include: agriculture; business environment; financial sector; heath; legal sector reform; public financial management; public sector reform; tax modernization; and water and sanitation. 13 consultations are planned over the next 8-12 months to revisit the Bank's assistance strategy and determine whether any major course corrections are necessary. V. RISKS 49. The major risks identified in the CAS-political, political/economic, fiduciary, institutional and operational, and external-remain valid.12 However, some have materialized or become more pronounced than others to varying degrees since 2007. 50. External shocks from global economy o r climate have hit Tanzania and left major marks through various channels. Decline in tourism as well as change in terms o f trade, especially for major export commodities and imported oil, directly impact the country's key economic activities. The recent food price spikes and regional droughts underscore Tanzania's vulnerability to exogenous shocks and impact from climate change, exacerbated by domestic structural weaknesses. The government's commitment to food security issues and Kilimo Kwanza will need to be translated into decisive actions to reform agriculture and social protection and a more systematic approach to mitigate impacts from climate change. 5 1. Governance and corruption risks have emerged more prominently than anticipated. Given the serious implications o f weak governance, the Bank will continue monitoring the situation closely and will support the government's efforts to develop systems that reduce the opportunities for corruption, notably in public financial management at the central and local levels. 52. Political dynamics play a key role in determining the success o f development interventions, especially in implementing reforms. W h i l e political risks may be difficult to detect, a better understanding o f the political economy and the agenda o f stakeholders would help identify alternatives and prepare mitigation measures. Political economy risks are likely to intensify in the lead up to general elections in October 2010. 53. Potential risks arising from population dynamics-e.g., ever rising demands for resources for publicly funded facilities-need to be considered during development planning and budgeting. The growing youth population could either help increase the productive workforce or turn into a cohort o f unemployedunderemployed, discontented youths, increasing crime and social instability. The Bank, in collaboration with DPs, will continue the dialogue with the government on this issue. l2See the Joint Risk Analysis in the JAST Part 1 1 1. 14 00 0 0 N .5 2 3 d i- ." 0 rg 0 0 rg N CI 0 0 rg 0 .5 0 0 - N 0 i- N N N .5 .5 g -5 s *: m i- ." z 0 ." 9 - 3 S n 3 3 N *- .r( N E 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 ~ o o . o o o o o o 4 o 0 0 0 0 d 2 > Q B m 8 m 0 0 0 N 8- 0 El - 02 c-4 .s s .I G O P- o x 3 v! w e m 00 m nE : n ? x c! m a m 3 0 3 0 I- .- N N O c c 0 - c.l s s m .- .I E o m o o 2 n ? d B B VY 00 3 2 0 N x D m m m W h n e! ? W m v) 0 0 c1 El s .I 2 8 0 40 0 . 0 . 0 . n (9 2 - n (9 2 3 Annex 2: Revised CAS Outcomes 1. Increased revenue collection efficiency 0 One o f the two indicators retained. 6. Improved doing business environment 2. Improved Doing Business Environment 2. Increased access to financial services Original Outcomes 2,3 and 6 integrated S E 3. Increased growth o f M M Indicators aligned to key ones used under ongoing operations. Targets adjusted to more realistic levels. 5. Improved railway network capacity Dropped due to the problems in the concession and poor performance o f the TRL. 7. Increased agricultural productivity 3. Increased agricultural productivity 0 Indicators aligned to those used in ongoing operations (with clearer attributions) 4. Improved coverage o f all-weather roads 4. Improved access to and quality of roads 8. Improved rural access Original Outcomes 4 & 8 combined 0 Indicators aligned to those used in GBS reviews 9. Sustainable marine and coastal 5. Improved management of natural resources environmental management 0 Original Outcomes 9-12 integrated into one. 10. Integrated management o f Lake Victoria Indicator on Lake Victoria dropped due to delayed basin project approval and effectiveness 11. Increased export o f value added mineral 0 Indicator on mineral production dropped because the production indirect effect or the TA loan and time lag to impact on production levels. 12. Increased participation o f population to 0 Indicators for Original Outcomes 9 & 12 retained sustainable forest resource management with revised wording to align to those in use. 13. Improved quality o f electricity services 6. Improved quality and access o f electricity services 14. Increased access to electricity Original Outcomes 13 & 14 combined 0 Indicators aligned to those in use with targets at more realistic levels. 15. Increased enrollment in secondary schools 7. Increased access to quality post-primary education 16. Increased quality in secondary schools Original Outcomes 15-17 combined. 17. Increased enrollment in highedtechnical 0 Indicator focused on access because o f the education enrollment pressure on quality and the delayed Bank support on secondary education. 0 Higher education i s included only as a milestone due to implementation delays. 18. Improved provision of quality health 8. Improved provision and quality o f health services services 0 Three key indicators selected and wording aligned. 19. Increased coverage o f births attended by Indicators on immunization, tuberculosis, and trained personnel malaria converted as milestones, aligned to the wording in use. 20. Reduced HIV prevalence o f pregnant 9. Reduced HIV prevalence between 15-24 years women between 15-24 years 0 Original Outcomes 20-2 1 combined. 2 1. Reduced HIV prevalence between 15-24 0 Indicator on use o f anti-retroviral drugs converted as years milestone. 24 22. Improved access to water supply in rural 10. Improved access to water and sanitation in areas ruraYurban areas 23. Improved access to water supply in urban 0 Original Outcomes 22-24 combined. areas Indicators aligned to those in use. 24. Increased access to sanitation services 25. Increased number o f vulnerable individuals 11. Improved socio-economic basic services and safety net reached with effective social protection through community participation measures 0 Original Outcomes 25-26 combined. 26. Increased participation o f citizens in local Indicators aligned to those in use and focused those governance issues attributable to Bank interventions. 28. Improved management, transparency and 12. Improved management, transparency and accountability o f public resource accountability of public resource management management 0 Original Outcomes 27-32 integrated into one. 27. Fiscal decentralization strengthened 0 Two key indicators retained (clean audits for LGAs 30. Improved Human Resource Management in & outstanding court cases) and one converted as the public sector milestone (procurement). 3 1. Strengthened national M&E systems 0 Indicators for convicted corruption cases dropped 32. Improved efficiency in the management o f due to weak attribution. court cases flow 25 L 0 P a 4 b 0 .. M 8 f E 4 Annex 4: Lending Program Water Sector Support Program 200 0 Water Sector Support 200 0 Zanzibar Basic Education 42 0 Zanzibar Basic Education 42 0 Central Transport Corridor Scale-up 148 0 (Sh@d to FY08) Health (Supplemental) - I1 Additional Financi CommunicationInfra. (Regional) 10 0 CommunicationInfra I11- Tanzania (Regional) 58 0 42 0 PRSC 6 160 0 Lake Victoria2 - Tanzania (Regional) 10 8 22 0 Accelerated Food Security 160 0 ASDP - Additional Financing 30 0 30 0 25 0 150 0 10 0 40 0 170 0 225 0 30 0 150 0 40 0 50 10 0 35 0 35 0 27 Annex 5: All Analytical and Advisory Activities by Cluster FY07-FY10 Crosscutting STATCAP* (AFTP2) Cluster I Economic Management Sub National Growth* (AFTUV) Shared Growth* (AFTUV) Infrastructure Building Tanzania as a Regional Trade Hub Towards a National Logistics Masterplan (AFTP2) Low Electricity Tariffs for the Rich (AFTP2) Poverty Reduction Didpoverty decline since 2001? (AFTP2) Private/Financial Sector Tanzania Investor Round Table * (AFTFE) Zanzibar MSME Income Climate Assessment (ICA) * (AFTFE) Trade Toward a Trade and Competitiveness Strategy to Propel Growth (AFTP2) Cluster I1 Crosscutting PEFAR 2007* IAFTP2) Cluster I Economic Management Shared Growth* (AFTP2) Natural Resources ' f Putting Tanzania's Hidden Economy to Work Reform, Management, and Protection o its Natural Resource Sector (AFTS2 and AFTP2) Cluster I1 Urban Development Urban Policies* (AFTUV) 1 Cluster 1 1 Public Service Zanzibar Public Service Reform* (AFTP2) Crosscutting National Panel Survey on Poverty (AFTP2) PEFAR 2008* (AFTP2) Cluster I Poverty High Poverty Incidence and a Bad Business Environment - Unfortunate Outcome or Rational Decision (AFTP2) Economic Management Infrastructure, Trade and Growth* (AFTP2) f The Short and Longer Term Potential Welfare Impact o Global Commodity Inflation in Tanzania (AFTPZ) Proposed Strategic Plan for Tanzania EPZ Program (AFTP2) Non-TarrffMeasures on Goods Trade in the East African Community (AFTP2, AFCRI) Environmental crisis or sustainable development opportunig? Transforming the charcoal sector in Tanzania: a policy Natural Resources note* (AFTEN) E S M P -Integrating SMEs in Rural Energy* (AFTEG) Infrastructure Telco Backbone* (CITPO) Emergency Action Plan to Decongest Dar es Salaam Port (AFTP2) Dar es Salaam Port "Past - Present - Future " (AFTTR) Private/Financial Sector Investor Round Table (AFTFE) Investment Climate Assessment* (AFTFE) Employment Study* (AFTP2) Agriculture f Eastern Africa: A Study o the Regional Maize Market and Marketing Costs* (AFTAR) Cluster I1 Education Primary Education in Mainland Tanzania: Poor kids le$ behind? (AFTP2) Urban The urban transition in Tanzania: building the empirical baseforpolicy dialogue (AFTUV) 28 Crosscutting PEFAR 2009* STATCAP Cluster I Agriculture High Marketing Costs and Ineflcient Policies in Tanzania's Maize Market (AFTAR) The Impact o Regulatory and Institutional Arrangements on Agricultural Markets and Poverv A case study o f f Tan:ania 's Coffee Market (AFTP2) State and Markets in Cashew Marketing - What Works Better for Tanzanian Farmers? (AFTP2) Economic Management Sustaining Job Creation and Improving the Quality o Jobs in Tanzania (AFTP2) f Developing Export Market Information System Status, Challenges andpriorities for Tanzania (AFTP2) Quantitative Assessment o Potential Impact o Services Trade Reforms in Tanzania (AFTP2) f f Poverty Reduction Pro-Poor Policies in Tanzania and the Role ofPolitical Institutions (AFTP2) Pro-Poor Growth and PoliticalStabilily in Tanzania: Does Aid Help? (AFTP2) Poverty Reduction in Tanzania since 2001 Good intentions, few results (AFTP2) Infrastructure I C T Rural Telco Backbone * (CITPO) Cluster I1 Health Repositioning Nutrition* (AFTHE) Water Public expenditure review o the water sector (AFTU2) f 1 Chrtpr 1 1 Crosscutting PEFAR 201 O* Poverty Assessment* (AFTP2) Cluster I Economic management Micro Constraints to Growth* (AFTP2) Professional Services Study (AFTP2) PrivateMinancial Sector ICA Follow Up* (AFTFE) PPP and CapitalMarketP (AFTFE) Infastructure Privatization (AFCEl) *Indicates formal AAA 29 Annex 6: Formal Analytical and Advisory Activities b y Type (a). Government (G), Development Partner(s) (D), Bank (B), public dissemination (PD). (b). Knowledge generation (KG), public debate (PD), problem-solving (PS). 30 Annex 7: Selected Indicators of Portfolio Performance and Management CAS Annex B2 Tanzania - Selected Indicators* of Bank Portfolio Performance and Management As Of Date 211 612010 indicator 2007 2008 2009 2010 Portfolio Assessment Number of Projects Under Implementation a 23 23 26 23 Average Implementation Period (years) 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.3 Percent of Problem Projects by Number 4.3 8.7 11.5 4.3 Percent of Problem Projects by Amount a, 1.6 5.2 4.8 1.6 Percent of Projects at Risk by Number 4.3 8.7 11.5 4.3 Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount ' 8 1.6 5.2 4.8 1.6 Disbursement Ratio (%) e 20.8 23.2 20.7 25.6 Portfolio Management CPPR during the year (yeslno) Yes Supenision Resources (total US$) Average Supenision (US$/project) Memorandum Item Since FY 80 Last Five FYs Proj Eva1 by OED by Number 105 11 Proj Eva1 by OED by Amt (US$ millions) 4,298.4 858.3 % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Number 40.0 9.1 % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Amt 32.4 10.4 a.As shown in the Annual Report on Portfolio Performance (except for current FY). b.Average age of projects in the Bank's country portfolio. c.Percent of projects rated U or HU on development objectives (DO) and/or implementation progress (IP d.As defined under the Portfolio Improvement Program. e.Ratio of disbursements during the year to the undisbursed balance of the Bank's portfolio at the beginning of the year: Investment projects only. * All indicators are for projects active in the Portfolio, with the exception of Disbursement Ratio, which includes all active projects as well as projects which exited during the fiscal year. 31 -x $ coaa~comaacotta~coamacoaa~acot-t- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN v1 Y E E W .. 03 8 E 4 m m .. 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 a a a a a a a a a 1 Annex 1 :IFC Program, FY07-FY10 Tanzania: IFC Investment Operations Program 2007 2008 2009 201o* Commitments (US$m) Gross 11.67 58.14 28.19 52.30 Net** 11.67 58.14 28.19 52.30 Net Commitments by Investment Instrument (%I Equity 1.35 0.67 28.33 Guarantee 57.14 4.06 27.58 4.07 Loan 42.86 94.59 43.37 25.92 Quasi loan 28.38 41.68 Tota I 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 * , Estimates as of Feb 12, 2010 ** IFC's Own Account only IFC High Probability Pipeline for FY 2010 (In USD Millions) Estimated FY Company Loan Equity Quasi GTlRM Participant Approval Equity 2010 Access Tanzania 0.30 0.00 2010 Bank of Africa Tanzania 3.00 0.00 2010 CRJE (MNF Housing) 11.oo 0.00 2010 Williamson 15.00 15.00 0.00 Total high probability pipeline 14.00 15.30 15.00 0.00 0.00 35 0 0 I u? b 0 F I 1 1 1 0 2 I ' 0 2 W E ca 0 cI . 0 rr Y k a 2 0 .I Y 2 Q) a 0 v trr .. N r( a c Annex 13: Tanzania at a Glance Tanzania a t a glance V29lKl I Sub- Key Development Indloators Saharan Tanzania Africa income (2008) Population, mid-year (millions) 37.6 800 1296 75-78 Surface area (thousand sq. km) 0.9 24,242 21846 So84 Population growth (%) 2.4 2.4 2.2 Urban population (%of total population) 36 36 32 4548 3034 GNI (Atlas method, US$ billions) 7.3 761 744 I 15-18 GNI percapita (Atlas method, US$) 4x) 951 574 GNI percapita (PPP. international $) I200 1869 1489 0 4 10 5 0 5 10 GDP growth (%) 7.4 6.2 6.4 percalt of tctd populaaon GDP per capita growth (%) 5.0 3.8 4.2 (most r e c e n t e r t i m e t e . 2003-2008) Povertyheadcount ratio at $1.25aday(PPP.%) 89 51 Povertyheadcount ratio at $2.00aday(PPP.%) 97 73 Life expectancyat birth (years) 55 51 57 Infant mortality(per 1000 live births) 68 200 89 80 180 Child malnutrition (%of children under 5) 38 27 28 1BO 140 Adult literacy, male (%of ages 1 and older) 5 79 71 72 120 Adult literacy, female (%of ages 1 and older) 5 66 54 55 100 80 Gross primaryenroliment. male (%of age group) t I? 99 KlO so Gross primaryenrollment, female (%of age group) 1Kl 88 69 40 20 Access to an improvedwater source (%of population) 60 56 68 0 Access to improved sanitation facilities (%of population) 33 31 1880 1885 2000 2007 I Net A i d Flows 1990 2000 2008 (US$ millions) Net ODA and official aid 886 811 1552 Top 3 donors (in 2007): United Kingdom 27 153 254 14 United States 39 25 247 12 European Commission 42 32 %7 10 8 6 Aid(%ofGNl) 28.6 116 8.1 4 Aid percapita (US$) 49 32 39.2 2 0 2 Long-Term Eoonomlo Trends 4 85 05 Consumer prices (annual %change) 35.8 6.2 Kl.3 GDP Implicit deflator (annual %change) 20.2 7.5 m.2 Exchange rate (annual average. local per US$) P5.1 800.4 ll96.3 Terms o f trade index (2000 = '00) 61 IO0 88 1980-80 1990-2000 2000-08 (average annualgrowth %) Population, mid-year (millions) 23.9 319 39.5 2.5 2.9 2.4 GDP (US$ millions) 4.258 9,079 20715 2.9 7.0 ( % o f GDP) Agriculture 46.0 311 29.3 3.2 5.4 Industry 7.7 18.9 22.9 3.1 9.8 Manufacturing 9.3 9.3 8.5 2.7 8.7 Services 36.4 47.9 47.8 2.7 6.6 Household final consumption expenditure 80.9 79.2 73.1 5.1 5.3 General gov't final consumption expenditure 7.8 a.6 8.3 -7.0 15.1 Gross capital formation 26.1 7.6 21.3 -16 8.6 Exports o f goods and services P.6 8.8 15.1 9.3 5.7 Imports o f goods and services 37.5 24.2 23.0 3.9 6.4 Gross savings 5.9 Kl.l D.6 Note Figures in italics are for years other than those specified 2008 data are preliminary indicates data are not available Development Economics. Development Data Group (DECDG) - 37 m Tanzania Balance of Payments and Trade 2000 2008 (US$ millions) Total merchandiseexports (fob) 663 3070 Total merchandiseimports (cif~ 1,534 -5667 Voice and amuntabllny Net trade in goods and services -923 -2597 Polbca stability Current account balance -936 -2333 as a %of GDP -10.3 -12.5 Regulatory qualny Rule of law Workers' remittances and compensationof employees (receipts) 8 19 Contml of wrmption Reserves, including gold 974 2660 100 Central Government Finance wm7 Country's erwntile rankdo -100) D m hlgh#hwvafm Imp+ b.#wn np ( X of GDP) Current revenue (including grants) 10.8 15.9 Tax revenue 9.5 14.7 Current expenditure 11.1 14.9 Technology and lnfrastructtre 2000 2007 Overall surplus/deficit -5.4 -1.6 Paved roads ( O h of total) 4.2 66 Highest marginal tax rate (%) Fixed line and mobile phone Individual 30 30 subscribers (per 100 people) 1 21 Corporate 30 30 High technology exports (% of manufactured exports) 1.2 1.5 External Debt and Resource Flows Environment (US$ millions) Total debt outstandingand disbursed 7136 5938 Agricultural land ( h of land area) O 38 39 Total debt service 172 62 Forest area ( h of land area) O Debt relief (HIPC, MDRI) 2,828 2,038 Nationally protected areas (% of land area) Total debt (% of GDP) 79.7 29.9 Freshwater resources per capita (cu. meters) 2,359 2,078 Total debt service (W of exports) 12.4 1.2 Freshwaterwithdrawal (billion cubic meters) 5.2 Foreign direct investment (net inflows) 463 823 C02 emissions per capita (mt) 0.08 0.12 Portfolio equity (net inflows) 0 0 GDP per unit of energy use (2005 PPP $per kg of oil equivalent) 2.2 2.1 Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent) 397 527 (US$ millions) IBRD Total debt outstanding and disbursed 11 0 Disbursements 0 0 Principal repayments 4 0 Interest payments 1 0 IDA Total debt outstanding and disbursed 2,593 1585 Disbursements 142 529 Private Sector Development 2000 2008 Total debt service 24 22 Time required to start a business (days) - 29 IFC (fiscal year) Cost to start a business (% of GNI per capita) - 41.5 Total disbursed and outstanding portfolio 43 26 Time required to register property (days) - 73 of which IFC own account 43 26 Disbursementsfor IFC own a m u r t 8 4 Ranked as a major constrant to business 2000 2007 Portfolio sales, prepayments and (% of managers surveyed who agreed) repaymentsfor IFC own account 4 1 Electricity .. 72.9 Access to/cost of financing .. 9.3 MlGA Gross exDosure 175 0 Stock market capitalization(%of GDP) 2.6 3.8 Bank capital to asset ratio (%) Note: Figures in italics ara for years other than those specified. 2008 data are preliminary 1/29/10 .. indicates data are not available. -indicates Observation is not applicable. Deve opment Economics Development Data Gro-p (DECDG) 38 Millennium Development Goals Tanzania with selected targets to achieve between 1990 and 2015 (estimate closest to date shown, W- 2years) G o a l 1: halve the rate. f o r extreme poverty and malnutrition 1990 1986 2000 l."ll 2 0 0 7 ." Povertyheadcount ratio a t $ 1 2 5 a d a y ( P P P , % o f population) 72.6 88.5 Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (%of population) 51 1 35.4 33.2 Shareof income orconsumption to the poorest qunitile ( O h ) 6.8 Prevalenceof malnutrition (%of children under 5) 26.9 30.6 44.0 38.0 G o a l 2 : ensure t h a t ohlldran are able t o oomplete prlmarysohoollng Primaryschool enrollment (net, %) 47 53 99 Primarycompletion rate (%of relevant age group) 62 55 85 Secondaryschool enrollment (net,%) 5 5 6 28 Youth literacyrate (%of people ages 15-24) 77 78 G o a l 3: ellmlnate gendar dlaparlty In eduoatlon and empower women ll_l .l l. "" Ratio of girls to boys in primaryand secondaryeducation ( O h ) 1 Women employed in the nonagriculturalsector (%of nonagriculturalemployment) Proportion of seats held bywomen in national parliament (%) G o a l 4: reduoe under-6 mortallty by two-thlrds Under-5 mortality rate (per $000) E4 a7 06 91 Infant mortalityrate (per I 0 0 0 live births) 99 86 85 68 Measles immunization (proportionof one-yearolds immunized,%) 80 78 78 90 G o a l 6 : reduoe maternal mortality by three-fourths M atemal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per i30.000 live births) 578 Births attended byskilled health staff (%of total) 44 Contraceptive prevalence ( % o f women ages 15-49) 25 26 G o a l 6 : halt and begln t o raverse t h a apread o f H l V l A l D S and other m a j o r dlseaaea Prevalence of H N (%of population ages 15-49) 4.8 7.4 7.1 6.2 Incidence of tuberculosis (per 00,000 people) 228 226 236 192 Tuberculosis cases detected under DOTS (%) 81 52 51 G o a l 7: halve the proportion o f people wlthout sustainable a o o e s s t o baslo needs Access to an impmvedwatersource (%of population) 49 50 53 55 Access to improved sanitation facilities (%of population) 35 35 34 33 Forest area (%of total land area) 48 8 44 5 42 1 38 9 Nationally protected areas ( % o f total land area) C 0 2 emissions (metnc tons percapita) 01 01 01 01 GDP per unit o f energy use (constant 2005 P P P 8 per kg of oil equivalent) 22 22 22 21 G o a l 6 : devalop a global partnerahlp f o r davelopment Telephone mainlines (per i30 people) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 Mobile phone subscribers (per i30 people) 0.0 0.0 0.3 20.8 Internet users (per D O people) 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 Personal computers (per XI0 people) 0.2 0.3 0.9 . .1 loo 1 n 30 : 20 25 10 2000 2002 2004 20082007 1990 1885 2000 2007 2000 2002 2004 20082007 d Pdmaly net mmlmant mlo &Ratio of Old8 to b q s h prhrary 8 amnBry =fixed + mobib rubcmibcnllntemel u s e n education Note Figures in italics are for years otherthan those specified indicates data are not available v29/a Development Economics, Development Data Group (DECDG) __ 39 Annex 14: Key Economic Indicators Tanzania - Key Economic Indicators Actual Estimate Projected Indicator 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 National accounts (as YOof GDP) Gross domestic producta 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Agriculture 32 30 29 29 30 29 29 28 28 Industry 23 23 23 23 22 23 22 22 23 Services 46 47 47 48 48 49 49 49 50 Total Consunption 84 86 87 84 85 84 83 82 80 Gross domestic fced investment 19 19 20 21 18 16 20 22 23 Government investment 8 8 8 8 5 3 5 7 8 Private investment 11 12 12 14 13 13 15 15 15 Exports (GNFSf 21 23 24 25 24 25 28 30 32 Imports (GNFS) 30 36 41 39 35 37 39 41 43 Gross domestic savings 16 14 13 16 14 15 16 17 18 QOSS national savings' 16 15 13 16 14 15 17 18 19 Memorandum items Gross domestic product 14251 14797 17305 19017 2 1628 23724 25783 27980 30586 (US$ million at current prices) GNI per capita (US$, Atlas method) 378 383 387 442 460 475 490 510 550 Real annual growth rates (%, calculated !?om2001 prices) Gross domestic product at mrket 7.4 I 6.7 7.1 7.4 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.4 Balance of Payments (Ls%) Exports (GNFSf 2704 2776 3103 3795 4153 4404 4795 5264 5867 MerchandiseFOB 1717 1709 1922 2609 295 1 3154 3483 3820 4207 Inports (GNFSf 4212 4684 5096 6865 7172 7320 7996 8832 9818 Merchandise FOB 3052 3456 3759 5667 5970 6070 6684 7389 8158 Resource balance -1507 -1908 -1993 -3070 -3019 -2916 -3201 -3568 -3951 Net current transfers 532 610 648 686 732 757 819 78 1 798 Current account balance -975 -1298 -1345 -2384 -2287 -2159 -2382 -2787 -3153 Net private foreign direct investm 495 510 582 696 591 520 650 813 1016 Long-tennloans (net) 532 792 1024 1128 1147 1315 1415 Official 0 532 792 1024 1128 1147 1315 1415 Private Other capital (net, incl. errors & omm mange in reservesd -212 -169 -315 -501 -19 -174 -284 -286 -352 1190 Memorandum items Resource balance (% ofGDP) -10.6 -12.9 -11.5 -16.1 -14.0 -12.3 -12.4 -12.8 -12.9 Real annual growth rates ( Y R O l prices) Merchandise exports (FOB) 24.0 17.3 19.1 21.0 7.5 9.0 11.5 9.7 11.0 Primary Manufactures 26.5 26.9 28.3 31.1 -52.5 8.8 -16.8 0.0 0.0 Merchandise imports (CIF) 19.5 22.3 21.5 25.8 6.3 4.7 10.6 10.6 10.3 (Continued) 40 - Tanzania Key Economic Indicators (Continued) Actual Estimate Projected Indicator 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public finance (as % of GDP at mlrket prices$ Current revenues 11.8 12.6 14.5 15.9 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.5 Current expenditures 15.4 17.3 17.4 14.9 17.3 19.4 17.9 17.3 17.2 Current deficit' -3.6 -4.7 -2.9 1.0 -1.4 -2.9 -0.9 0.0 0.3 Capital expenditure 6.3 5.7 6.2 8.0 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.5 10.0 Foreign fmancing 3.8 2.6 3.3 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.0 Monetary indicators MUGDP 15.6 17.1 19.0 20.0 21.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 Growth o f M2 (%) 26.8 23.2 22.7 24.4 23.8 21.2 21.0 20.0 19.0 Private sector credit growth / 63.5 41.9 34.5 39.0 26.7 33.6 38.0 39.0 41.0 total credit growth (YO) Price indices( klW2 =loo) Merchandise export price index 151.7 154.8 166.5 201.2 151.5 163.2 183.9 189.2 193.5 Merchandise import price index 125.8 153.7 171.1 194.8 177.7 191.3 206.0 210.0 213.0 Merchandiset e r n oftrade index 120.6 100.7 97.3 103.3 85.3 85.3 89.3 90.1 90.8 Real exchange rate (US%/L.CU)' 70.7 66.4 65.7 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 Consumer price index (%change) 5.0 7.2 7.0 10.2 11.9 9.9 9.0 8.5 7.5 GDP deflator (% change) 6.2 5.3 9.0 10.0 13.0 5.6 4.4 5.0 5.0 a. GDP at factor cost b. "GNFS" denotes "goods and nonfactor services." c. Includes net unrequited transfers excluding official capital grants. d. Includes use ofIMF resources. e. Consolidated central governmelt. f Current deficit is the difference between current revenue and current expenditure, it is different to overal deficit which includes development expenditure g. "LCU" denotes "local currency units." A n increase in USVLCUdenotes appreciation, 41 - Tanzania Key Economic Indicators (Continued) Actual Estimate Projected Indicator 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Indicator Public finance (as % o f GDP at Aarket price:) Current revenues 11.8 12.6 14.5 15.9 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.5 Current expenditures 15.4 17.3 17.4 14.9 17.3 19.4 17.9 17.3 17.2 Current deficif -3.6 -4.7 -2.9 1.o -1.4 -2.9 -0.9 0.0 0.3 Capital expenditure 6.3 5.7 6.2 8.0 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.5 10.0 Foreign financing 3.8 2.6 3.3 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.0 Monetary indicators M2/GDP 15.6 17.1 19.0 20.0 21.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 Growth of M2 (%) 26.8 23.2 22.7 24.4 23.8 21.2 21.0 20.0 19.0 Private sector credit growth / 63.5 41.9 34.5 39.0 26.7 33.6 38.0 39.0 41.0 total credit growth (YO) Price indices( YR92 =loo) Merchandise export price index 15 1.7 154.8 166.5 201.2 151.5 163.2 183.9 189.2 193.5 Merchandise import price index 125.8 153.7 171.1 194.8 177.7 191.3 206.0 210.0 213.0 Merchandise terms of trade index 120.6 100.7 97.3 103.3 85.3 85.3 89.3 90.1 90.8 Real exchange rate (US$/LCr8) 70.7 66.4 65.7 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 Consumer price index (YOchange) 6.7 7.2 7.0 10.2 11.9 9.9 9.0 8.5 7.5 GDP deflator (% change) 6.2 5.3 9.0 10.0 13.0 5.6 4.4 5.0 5.0 a. GDP at factor cost b. "GNFS" denotes "goods and nonfactor services." c. Includes net unrequited transfers excluding official capital grants. d. Includes use of IMF resources. e. Consolidated central governmch f. Current deficit i s the difference between current revenue and current expenditure, it i s different to overal deficit which includes development expenditure n g. "LCU" denotes "local currency units." A increase in US$/L,CU denotes appreciation. 42 Annex 15: Key Exposure Indicators - Tanzania Key Exposure Indicators Actual Estimated Projected Indicator 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total debt outstanding and 8335 4028 4974 5114 5417 5664 5834 6034 6240 disbursed (TDO)(US$m)a Net disbursements (US$m)a 376 4% 635 839 772 781 61 1 668 688 Total debt service (TDS) 116.3 86.1 46.5 34.2 45.7 57.3 86.3 126.3 . 176.0 (US$m)a Debt and debt service indicators (%) TotalDebt OutstandingBportofGNFSb 308.2 145.1 160.3 134.8 130.4 128.6 121.7 114.6 106.4 Total Debt Outstanding/GDP 55.1 29.6 20.8 24.8 25.1 25.3 26.7 26.8 27.8 Total Debt ServiceBport ofGNFSb 4.3 3.1 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.0 IBRDexposure indicators e?) IBRDDebt Service/Public Debt Service 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 IDA Total Debt Outstanding (US$m)c 3861 1056 1585 1805 2009 2190 2321 2520 2760 a. Includes public and publicly guaranteed debt, private nonguaranteed, use o f I M F credits and net short- termcapital. b. "GNFS" denotes exports ofgoods and services, including workers' remittances. c. Includes present value ofguarantees. 43 IBRD 33494R1 TA N Z A N I A SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS MAIN ROADS PROVINCE CAPITALS RAILROADS NATIONAL CAPITAL PROVINCE BOUNDARIES RIVERS INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES 30°E 32°E 34°E 36°E This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any To endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 0° Tororo 0° To GAN DA U GAND A Kampala To Kampala Lake To Ka ge r a Victoria Nakuru K E N YA Bukoba Musoma Mara To Nakuru Buoen RWANDA KAGERA MARA 2°S 2°S Lake Mwanza Natron T T To M WA N Z A Simi yu Ka A R U S H A Kilimanjaro ma (5895 m) a a Moshi BURUNDI Arusha To DEM. REP. O F CO NGO OF CONGO Yalova Lake Malindi Mo M S H I N YA N G A Eyasi Lake yow y Kibondo Pa P Shinyanga e Manyara KILIMANJARO n ga p o si g Kahama s 4°S ni ep i Nzega Babati Same St sa Masai KIGOMA PEMBA e Steppe St er NORTH Kasulu MANYARA mb Kigoma Singida Kondoa Kaliua PEMBA Tabora Iwe SINGIDA Wete SOUTH Tanga TA N G A Mkoani ZANZIBAR TA B O R A Lake Ugalla Manyoni NORTH Tanganyika DODOMA ts. Mkokotoni ZANZIBAR M SOUTH & u Zanzibar Koani CENTRAL ur i am Mpanda D O D O M A Ng ZANZIBAR W WEST Morogoro Kibaha R U K WA Dar es Salaam Rung wa Grea MOROGORO MO ROGORO DAR ES SALAAM t Rua ha P WA N I Lake Iringa Sumbawanga Rukwa M B E YA e 8°S ng IRINGA Utete 8°S Ra ro Mpui ya IN DI AN ji e ufi be Mb R Kilom Kilwa Mbeya du Kivinje t an Ma Tunduma Ki pe Njombe O CE AN To Kasama n LINDI ur u mk ge ge be Lindi re 10°S M 10°S Mtwara Ra To n ng Kasama A MB IA Z AM B I A e Songea Masasi To TANZANIA Kasungu MTWARA Lake RUVUMA a Tunduru vum Ru Malawi To Chiúre 12°S To To Lichinga Marrupa MO ZA MBIQ UE MOZAM BI QUE 0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers 32°E 34°E 36°E 0 50 100 150 Miles 40°E NOVEMBER 2007