95768 Ending Poverty and Hunger by 2030 An Agenda for the Global Food System Second Edition with Foreword by Dr. Jim Yong Kim © 2015 World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/foodsecurity Twitter: @WBG_Agriculture Email: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions ex- pressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of World Bank Group or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such bound- aries. 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Images Front cover: Boubakary Cisse Back cover: Sarwat Hussain/World Bank Interior: 2, Bijay Gajmer/World Bank 4, Maria Fleischmann/World Bank 6, H. De Groote/CIMMYT 9, Bart Verweij/World Bank 11, Markus Kostner/World Bank 13, UN Photo/Lamphay Inthakoun 15 (l), John Bill 15 (c), Danilo Pinzon 15 (r), Maria Fleischmann 24, africa924/Shutterstock.com 26, Simone D. McCourtie/World Bank Ending Poverty and Hunger by 2030 An Agenda for the global food system MAY 2015 Second Edition Foreword The food system is fundamental for human life. It provides the energy and nutrition that people need as a basis for economic and social advance. It provides an income source for billions of people, many of whom are poor, and it is the largest user of the world’s natural resources. Yet about 800 million people still go to bed hungry every night, and many more suffer from the “hidden hunger” of malnutrition. That’s why the world needs a food system that can feed every person, every day, everywhere with a nutritious and affordable diet, delivered in a sustainable way. The food system operates across many sectors and touches upon many aspects of society— agriculture, health and nutrition, the environment, business, equity and culture, to name a few. As a result, improvements in its operations that help end hunger can also contribute to ending extreme poverty. To achieve these goals, however, we need action. For this reason, the World Bank Group is pleased to present “Ending Poverty and Hunger by 2030: An Agenda for the Global Food System.” This report is a guide for change, identifying key issues where the global food system should improve. The food system must become more sustainable. It must also raise the agricultural productivity of poor farmers, improve nutritional outcomes, and broadly adopt climate-smart agriculture that can withstand and mitigate climate change. (A digital version of the report is available at www.worldbank.org/agriculture.) Later this year, we expect that the Sustainable Development Goals will endorse ending extreme poverty and hunger by 2030. Achieving these goals depends on what we do next because, as this report shows, we have the knowledge we need. The World Bank Group is committed to using that knowledge and strengthening partnerships to build a global food system that creates a healthier and more prosperous world. Jim Yong Kim President The World Bank Group an agenda for the global food system 3 The Global Food System nutrition; and that can better steward the world’s natural resources. Urgently, we need Needed by 2030 a food system that is more resilient and that To permanently end poverty and hunger by shifts from being a major contributor to cli- 2030, the world needs a food system that can mate change to being part of the solution. All feed every person, every day, everywhere; that these aspects are closely interlinked, calling can raise real incomes of the poorest peo- for a more comprehensive approach to deliv- ple; that can provide safe food and adequate ering a healthier and more prosperous future. 4 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 A Call for Action. This document lays out poverty and hunger by 2030—a considerable key elements of an action agenda for the push is needed to achieve them. The world global food system called for by the Sus- has made significant progress since setting tainable Development Goals of ending pov- the Millennium Development Goal to halve erty and hunger by 2030. It builds on les- poverty and hunger between 1990 and 2015. sons learned, recognizing the need for broad Despite progress, 800 million people still go partnerships and multisectoral approaches to to bed hungry every night, and an even greater achieve these goals. It calls on key partners, number live in poverty (defined as living on coalitions, and alliances to come together to less than $1.25 per day). Poverty in the devel- help shape the evolution of the global food oping world has halved since 1990, with an system to permanently end poverty and hun- ongoing push to halve hunger by the end of ger by 2030. We need to accelerate progress 2015. Poverty and hunger prevalence in devel- on raising incomes of the poor, on ending oping countries had declined to 21 percent and hunger, and on ensuring a more sustain- 15 percent of the population, respectively, by able path for the food system. The three core 2010.1 Overall progress has been uneven, with elements of the agenda are aligned around a lag in low-income countries, where poverty (i) ensuring a more climate-smart agricul- and hunger prevalence in 2010 were 48 percent ture, (ii) improving nutritional outcomes, and and 28 percent of the population, respectively.2 (iii) strengthening value chains and improv- In addition, more progress has been made on ing market access. Within these groupings, a reducing undernourisment (providing ade- combination of policies, investments, knowl- quate amounts of available dietary energy) edge, partnerships, South-South learning, and than on reducing undernutrition (under- political will and leadership will be needed. weight and micronutrient deficiency). Given the number of people still living in poverty and suffering from hunger, new Sustainable Devel- Accelerated Progress Needed opment Goals that are to be finalized later this to End Poverty and Hunger year include ending poverty and hunger by by 2030 2030. A significant acceleration of progress Among the Sustainable Development Goals, and support is required to achieve these goals, to be finalized later this year, are goals to end particularly in low-income countries. an agenda for the global food system 5 Raising Incomes of the Poor million working in agriculture (63 percent of the total poor).3 About 200 million rural poor Most of the world’s poor live in rural areas. could migrate to urban areas by 2030, based By 2030, some will migrate to urban areas, on urbanization projections and assuming but most will not, and the rural population migration of a proportional share of the rural in less developed regions may even increase population that is poor (if 3 of every 10 people slightly. Most of the income gains needed to who migrate are poor). This would leave about end poverty by 2030 therefore will need to 700 million poor people in rural areas to be come from activities in rural areas. In 2010, lifted out of poverty by 2030. Even with a pro- over 900 million poor people (78 percent of jected increase of the share of the population the poor) lived in rural areas, with about 750 6 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 living in urban areas in less developed regions by 60 percent from 2015 to 2030, and 4.4 per- (increasing from 46 percent in 2010 to 56 per- cent per year to double incomes of the poorest cent in 2030), population growth is projected groups.6 These rates are higher than the rates to still lead to a small net increase in the num- recently achieved in the poorest countries. ber of people in rural areas from 3.06 billion to 3.13 billion people.4 Improved agricultural productivity and cli- mate resilience, strengthened links to mar- Ending poverty will require substantial kets, agribusiness growth, and rural non- income increases for poor people in rural farm incomes are needed to raise incomes. areas. In low-income countries, the average Overall, growth originating from agriculture income of poor people (defined as those liv- has been two to four times more effective at ing on less than $1.25 per day) is 78 cents; in reducing poverty than growth originating China and India it is 95 cents and 96 cents, from other sectors.7 And there is some evi- respectively.5 Lifting these people above $1.25 dence that income gains from agricultural per day requires average income gains of at activities have been no more costly to achieve least 60 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and at than income gains in other sectors.8 Small- least 30 percent in Asia (particularly in China holder productivity has recently increased and India). While this represents average even in the poorest regions such as Sub- incomes of the poor, for those earning signifi- Saharan Africa, where higher cereal yields cantly less, incomes will need to double. The have been closely correlated with a higher implied per capita income increases needed share of the population above the poverty are 3 percent per year to raise average incomes line (see figure 1). Rwanda and Ethiopia are Figure 1 Poverty reduction has been closely correlated with higher yields in Sub-Saharan Africa Cereal yield 1,500 55 Percent of population living on more than $1.25 per day Percent of population living on more than $1.25 per day 1,400 50 1,300 1,200 45 Cereal yield, kg/ha 1,100 40 1,000 900 35 800 700 30 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: World Development Indicators, POVCAL. an agenda for the global food system 7 examples of very significant yield growth and source of employment. Globally, 30 per- correspondingly large reductions in poverty.9 cent of all workers are employed in primary But this has not happened everywhere; for agriculture. The share is 60 percent in Sub- example, Zambia experienced similarly high Saharan Africa.13 Even though the overall share cereal yield growth, but the impacts on pov- of employment in farming may be lower by erty were more limited there as possibly poor 2030, the number of farmers may still increase farmers have participated less in this growth.10 in many countries—as projected for many Ensuring that growth has significant impacts African countries—with a concurrent increase on the incomes of the poor is what is needed in new jobs in food manufacture, preparation, to end poverty. Linking farmers to markets, marketing, transport, and other agrifood sys- strengthening agribusinesses, and generating tem services.14 As economies grow, the eco- rural non-farm income can help raise incomes nomic size of agribusiness (agricultural input- and provide jobs. supplying and output processing subsec- tors) relative to farming increases. In Sub- Improving crop and livestock systems, aqua- Saharan Africa, the agribusiness sector is culture and fisheries is needed. In addition to about half the economic size of farming; in raising crops yields, in many areas improved Asia and Latin America, it is about two to livestock productivity and animal health will three times the size; while in some indus- be essential to end poverty.11 Animal agricul- trial countries it is more than 10 times as ture is the only means of livelihood for poor large.15 The rising importance of agribusiness people in many agroecological areas. In mixed offers significant scope and opportunities for crop and livestock systems, livestock help to employment growth and value added in the diversify income sources; they provide draft post-harvest phase. In India, a 10 percent power, fertilizer fuel, and transportation, as growth in organized food processing output well as act as a store of wealth or savings for leads to employment growth in this subsec- poor households. In addition, livestock can tor of about 5 percent.16 Agriculture and the provide value-adding activities such as pro- broader food system thus is a key part of the duction of eggs, other livestock food products jobs agenda. Rural non-farm employment is (such as milk and yogurt), and nonfood prod- also a significant source of jobs and incomes. In ucts (such as wool and woven products) that India, rural non-farm employment is greater can help raise incomes. Aquaculture and cap- than all of urban employment.17 Higher ture fisheries also provide an important source agricultural productivity and rural non- of income for poor people. Most of the recent farm employment are positively correlated. growth in aquaculture has been in developing countries accounting for over 40 percent of Improving the performance of the food sys- global fish production.12 tem can contribute significantly to broader shared prosperity. Labor is often the most Economic structural transformation is important asset of the poor in developing under way, but the food system remains (and countries. Thus, raising the returns to labor in is likely to remain for some time) a significant agriculture and in the jobs in the food system, 8 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 including in agribusiness, can significantly under five who are moderately or severely contribute to shared prosperity. Additionally, underweight is higher than the share of the increasing agricultural supply chain efficiency population living in poverty (for example, in helps to: (i) lower consumer prices, thereby Yemen). In still other countries, the shares are raising real incomes of poor people every- similar (for example, in Ethiopia).18 This vari- where (rural as well as urban), because poor ability calls for a differentiated approach to people spend a large share of their income on addressing hunger. In some of the extremely food, and (ii) raise relative prices received by poor countries with low initial levels of agri- farmers, providing them additional income cultural production, income gains and food as well as incentives to enhance productivity production growth will be vitally important to and to diversify. Improved food security can reduce hunger; but where hunger rates remain dampen the impact of food shocks, avert civil stubbornly high despite a low poverty rate, a unrest, and reduce impairment of human cap- more targeted and direct approach to improv- ital—all of which can contribute to boosting ing health outcomes is needed. Social norms shared prosperity. also play a role. Feeding every person, every day, every- where, with a safe, nutritious, and affordable diet will require a multisectoral approach that includes but extends beyond raising incomes. Ensuring the production of sufficient quantities and diversity of food remains fun- damental. Ending hunger by 2030 will require higher incomes and productivity growth of the poorest groups, but this alone will not be sufficient. For the poorest countries, income growth helps reduce the prevalence of calorie deficiency, and in most countries, agricultural growth plays a key role in this income growth.19 Ending Hunger Incomes also affect child undernutrition. Esti- A differentiated approach, country by coun- mates based on past experience indicate that a try, is needed. Currently there are countries 60 percent increase in per capita incomes could where the share of the population living in reduce current stunting and underweight poverty is higher than the share of the pop- prevalence, respectively, by about 35 percent ulation that is undernourished, and higher and 45 percent.20 But undernutrition becomes than the share of children under five who less responsive to growth as prevalence rates are moderately or severely underweight (for decline, and impacts are much smaller for example, in Togo). In other countries, the lower levels of income growth.21And some reverse is true: the share of the population that countries that have experienced rapid income is undernourished and the share of children growth had limited associated improvements an agenda for the global food system 9 in nutrition outcomes. Agricultural produc- to enhance dietary diversity—evidence shows tion growth has also been shown to reduce that when diets are extremely undiversified, stunting when initial levels of production additional calories have no effect on reducing are low.22 Income growth remains vitally child malnutrition and that dietary diversity important for ending hunger by 2030, and likely moderates the link between income income growth for most of the poor will growth and reductions in malnutrition;25 and need to come from higher agricultural pro- (iv) incorporating explict nurition objectives ductivity and better links to markets. In and indicators into agricultural investments.26 addition to income, investments in nutrition- specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions Closing the gender gap can improve yield will also be needed, together with ensuring and nutritional outcomes. Women are key food availability and stability, particularly in players in the agriculture sector, accounting the time of more extreme weather precipitated for 43 percent of the labor force globally and by a changing climate. over 50 percent in some countries in East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. But across all regions Targeted nutrition programs and nutri- they own fewer assets (land, livestock, and tion-sensitive interventions need to be human capital) and have less access to inputs expanded. Targeted nutrition programs are a (seeds, fertilizer, labor, and finance) and ser- critical element of efforts to end stunting and vices (extension and insurance) than men do. wasting. One study has shown that scaling up Ensuring that women have the same access 10 proven effective nutrition-specific inter- to assets, inputs, and services in agriculture as ventions23 in 34 countries that have 90 percent men could increase women’s yields on farms of the world’s children with stunted growth by 20–30 percent and potentially reduce the could reduce child stunting worldwide by 20 number of hungry people by 12–17 percent.27 percent and the prevalence of severe wasting by 60 percent.24 Increasing the nutrition sen- Ensuring food availability and resilience sitivity of other investments in agriculture to more weather extremes is fundamen- and social protection programs can also help tal. Food demand is projected to increase by significantly. at least 20 percent globally over the next 15 years,28 with future demand growth increas- Nutrition-sensitive interventions in agri- ingly concentrated in cities as the world culture include a focus on women, access, urbanizes and through increased demand for availability, and knowledge. For agriculture, resources required to produce diets that are these interventions include: (i) investing in more intensive in animal-based products.29 women to safeguard and strengthen their Most of the increase in world food demand capacity to provide for the food security, will be in developing countries, increasing by health, and nutrition of their families; (ii) about 30 percent in Asia and by about 60 per- increasing access to and year-round availability cent in Sub-Saharan Africa, closely matching of high-nutrient content food; (iii) improving needed average income gains of the poor in nutrition knowledge among rural households these regions. Concurrently, global diets are 10 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 shifting—with more consumption of meat, in Asia. Among smallholders, commercially fish, dairy products, and fruits and vegeta- oriented farmers deliver surpluses to food bles. The largest increase in food demand is markets, but many others are subsistence- expected in the poorest regions,30 where cli- oriented farmers, many of whom are net buy- mate change is projected to reduce crop yields ers of food. This heterogeneity also perme- by 15–20 percent if temperatures rise above ates local traders, retailers, and wholesalers 2°C.31 The global food system is already fac- with both large-scale and small-scale oper- ing a higher frequency of weather extremes ators. This diversity will persist to 2030, and and fundamental shifts in seasonality, all of the policy environment and associated public which have negative impacts, especially for investment need to recognize and support this the most vulnerable. Weather extremes con- diversity. tributed to three world food price spikes between 2008 and 2012 and the frequency of extreme weather events is projected to increase.32 Climate change adds a significant challenge to ensuring enough food to feed the world by 2030. The world needs a more resil- ient food system that can better withstand cli- mate shocks and longer-term adverse changes in agro-climatic conditions to ensure food is available to meet shifting levels and composi- tion of global food demand. Different types and scale of production will contribute to ensuring food availability. The world’s food is produced on a range of farm Addressing Growing Levels sizes—small, medium, and large. Most of of Obesity the food in developing countries is produced on approximately 500 million small farms.33 Obesity has become a significant global Smallholder production will still be the dom- health challenge, yet is preventable and inant form of production in developing coun- reversible. Over the past 20 years, a global tries by 2030, and it is important that small- overweight/obesity epidemic has emerged, ini- holders be able to participate in advances in tially in industrial countries and now increas- productivity. Overall, about 85 percent of food ingly in low- and middle-income countries, is produced in the country where it is con- particularly in urban settings, resulting in a sumed. Most of the world’s exports of maize, triple burden of undernutrition, micronutrient wheat, and soybean are produced on larger deficiency, and overweight/obesity. There is farms in OECD counties, Latin America, and significant variation by region; some have very the Black Sea region, while world rice exports high rates of undernourishment and low rates are produced predominantly by smallholders of obesity, while in other regions the opposite an agenda for the global food system 11 is true (see figure 2). However, obesity has can reduce quality of life and increase public increased to the extent that the number of health costs of already underresourced devel- overweight people now exceeds the number oping countries. The number of overweight of underweight people worldwide. The eco- children is projected to double by 2030. nomic cost of obesity has been estimated at Driven primarily by increasing availability of $2 trillion, accounting for about 5 percent of processed, affordable, and effectively marketed deaths worldwide.34 Almost 30 percent of the food,36 the global food system is falling short world’s population, or 2.1 billion people, are with rising obesity and related poor health overweight or obese, 62 percent of whom live outcomes. Due to established health impli- in developing countries.35 Obesity accounts cations and rapid increase in prevalence, obe- for a growing level and share of worldwide sity is now a recognized major global health noncommunicable diseases, including dia- challenge, and no national success stories in betes, heart disease, and certain cancers that curbing its growth have so far been reported.37 Figure 2 Undernourishment and obesity rates vary significantly by region 25 Undernourished Obese 20 Share of the population (%) 15 10 5 0 Sub-Saharan South Asia East Asia & Latin America & Europe & Middle East & Africa the Pacific the Carribean Central Asia North Africa Source: FAO (2014). The State of Food Insecurity in the World. Rome; Ng, M. et al. (2014). “Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic anal- ysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013,” Lancet 384:766-81; UN Population Division data. Note: For each developing country the respective obesity data from Ng et al., are weighted by the share of the population above and below 20 years old, and within regions, by the population of each country. 12 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 degrading prime agricultural lands, depleting nonrenewable groundwater resources, and degrading aquifers upon which many of the poor depend. The impacts of climate change and the acceleration of the global hydrolog- ical cycle—an increase in evapotranspiration and a change in the frequency, intensity, and seasonal patterns of rainfall as global warm- ing continues—place additional pressures on these scarce resources. More efficient and sus- tainable use of water, particularly groundwater in highly water-stressed regions, is critical. Ensuring Sustainability Agriculture has to become more climate- Efforts to lift populations out of poverty and smart. Agriculture is the production sector hunger require environmental management most affected by climate change. Significant to ensure sustainable solutions. Income average crop yield declines are projected growth and reductions in hunger have come at with higher temperatures. Declines of 5–10 a significant environmental cost, with signifi- percent in the concentrations of iron, zinc, cant land and water degradation, biodiversity and protein in crops such as wheat, rice, loss, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. and soybeans are projected with increased Continued environmental degradation will CO2 concentrations, placing people at make it increasingly difficult to make needed greater health risks due to malnutrition.39 gains to end poverty and hunger by 2030 and Agriculture is also a significant contributor to ensure that these gains are sustained per- to climate change, accounting for about 25 manently. We need a food system that makes percent of all GHG emissions (resulting from more-efficient use of already limited land and agriculture and land use change for agricul- water resources, is more resilient, and has a ture). Projected global shifts in consumption significantly lower environmental footprint. patterns to more livestock and dairy prod- ucts, which are more emissions-intensive than Natural resource degradation and depletion cereals, will increase the challenge of lowering needs to be slowed and reversed. Compe- the aggregate emissions intensity in the sec- tition for scarce land and water resources in tor. Crop and livestock yield gains can reduce some regions, due to high population den- emissions per kilogram or liter of output. For sities and growing demand, is increasingly example, if there had been no crop yield gains stressing these resources. This competition for the major cereals since 1960, 2.8 times is expected to increase through 2030. Land more land than is currently cultivated would and water systems, particularly in major need to have been brought into production to Asian food-producing areas, are now at risk38 produce the amount of major cereals the world from intensive agricultural practices that are consumes today.40 In the absence of historical an agenda for the global food system 13 yield gains and the implied deforestation Animal diseases must be contained, as they needed to feed the world, emissions would per- pose a threat to livelihoods and human haps be about double compared to the current health. The food system also needs to help emissions from agriculture.41 Nevertheless, a reduce the significant risks and burden of ani- continuation of current agricultural practices mal diseases, including zoonotic diseases. Cli- is projected to increase agriculture and land mate change could increase risks and uncer- use change emissions to the equivalent of 70 tainty by affecting the range, seasonality, and percent of total emissions allowable in 2050 incidence of animal diseases. Reducing live- to achieve only a 2°C average global tempera- stock losses helps to preserve a critical capital ture increase.42 The three priorities for mak- asset and source of income and food for poor ing agriculture more climate-smart—raising people. agricultural productivity, improving resilience, and reducing emissions—will vary by region, Capture fisheries and aquaculture need reflecting opportunities and trade-offs. to become more sustainable. Most global capture fisheries are exploited to their bio- A more responsiveness global food sys- logical limit or beyond, threatening biodi- tem can improve resilience to shocks. As versity, the integrity of coastal habitats, and incomes rise and households spend a smaller the livelihoods and food security of about 3 share of their incomes on food, they tend to billion people worldwide who rely on these reduce food consumption less in the case of a ecosystems. Despite larger fishing fleets and food price spike. With less downward adjust- improved technology, the annual volumes ment of demand, the supply side (through of capture fisheries has remained relatively production, stocks, and trade) will need to stagnant, accounting for about half of global adjust more quickly to production shocks. fish production. Shifting capture fisheries This responsiveness is needed to reduce over- toward sustainable extraction rates remains all food price volatility and lower the magni- a challenge, but it is beginning to happen tude and frequency of food price spikes over in some fisheries. Aquaculture production time, especially given the high vulnerability of is growing rapidly, mostly in developing the poor, who are least able to cope. Current countries and is projected to be the prime trade and social protection policies leave many source of fish by 2030. The development of poor people vulnerable to adverse nutritional aquaculture needs to be more sustainable, consequences of food price shocks. And the limiting pollution and disruption to the eco- logistical capacity to transport food from areas systems, and ensuring biodiversity. of production to areas of demand is especially stretched in many food-insecure locations. 14 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 Key Elements of the Agenda complementary. Core actions can be grouped into ensuring a more climate-smart agricul- for Action ture, improving nutritional outcomes, and Many of the actions needed to end poverty strengthening value chains—forming the and hunger and to ensure that these gains key elements of the agenda for action. The are permanent, particularly in the context important issues of environmental sustain- of climate change, overlap. Many of the ability, gender, and vulnerability cut across potential solutions to the emerging challenges the agenda, and actions are reflected accord- are not distinct and separate; often they are ingly. Within these groupings, a combination an agenda for the global food system 15 of investments, policies, knowledge, partner- regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. ships, South-South learning, and political will The world needs to feed a growing popu- and leadership will be needed. lation. Increasing crop and livestock yields can reduce aggregate GHG emissions per 1. Ensuring a more climate-smart kilogram of food produced and can reduce agriculture expansion of production areas into forests,43 Climate-smart agriculture—higher agri- providing a form of mitigation of GHG cultural productivity, greater climate resil- emissions. If the 60 percent average income ience, reduced GHG emissions (including increase of the poor needed in low-income increased carbon storage in farmland and countries is to be achieved by yield gains rangeland)—is essential to permanently alone, yields will need to increase by at least 3 end poverty and hunger. While past actions percent per year over the next 15 years, assum- to address these three elements have gener- ing no output price effects and no relative ally been considered independently, a high input cost increases. Doubling incomes from priority is to increasingly move to actions yield gains alone would require 4.4 percent that can deliver all three simultaneously—the per year yield growth. These yield gains are triple-win. higher than the 2.1 percent cereal yield gains achieved in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to Agricultural productivity is a core element 2013. However, the good news is that agricul- of climate-smart agriculture, and improve- tural growth has improved in Sub-Saharan ments in productivity are important for all Africa, with real agricultural GDP increasing Figure 3 Scope to shift more countries to the right side of the cereal yield distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa Distribution of cereal yields across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (using 2011–13 average yields) 13 11 Number of countries 7 5 4 3 2 <500 500-1000 1000-1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 >3000 Cereal yield range (kg/ha) Source: World Development Indicators. 16 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 at 5.2 percent per year from 2000 to 2013.44 needed, and key elements of the associated This was the highest rate of all regions, thanks action agenda, include: to macroeconomic stability, lower agricultural taxation, reduced conflict,45 and increased • Adoption of improved technology and investment. Growth was driven by both yield access to inputs. Ensuring existing and gains and area expansion, and for cereals new climate-smart technologies are avail- each contributed about 2 percent, with price able to poor countries, and poor farmers, effects adding about an additional 1 percent can help reduce yield gaps and improve to growth. This was a substantial improve- resilience.The agenda includes: (i) promot- ment from the 0.9 percent cereal yield growth ing the adoption of drought- and flood- registered from 1990 to 1999. However, there tolerant crop varieties (such as drought- is a wide, positively skewed distribution in tolerant maize and scuba rice) and more- cereal yields in Sub-Saharan Africa (see fig- resilient and emissions-efficient livestock; ure 3), with some countries achieving average (ii) expanding the reach of agricultural yields of about 2.5 tons per hectare, while in advisory/extension and veterinary ser- most countries yields range from 0.5 to 1.5 vices and improving the quality of these tons per hectare. For some countries at the services; (iii) further harmonizing seed low end of the distribution, agroecological standards and certification (at regional conditions limit crop yield growth potential, levels) to ease administrative procedures with livestock systems being the dominant for seed trade and variety release to bring form of livelihoods of the poor in these coun- access to a wider diversity of seed vari- tries. The overall yield distribution needs to eties; (iv) improving pasture and range- be shifted to the right, and the poor need to land management; (v) facilitating private participate more in this growth. Addressing sector investments in input supply; and gender inequality can help, as earlier indi- (vi) aligning farmer incentives, ensuring cated, as ensuring that women farmers have associated policies do not promote pro- the same access to productive assets, inputs, duction in unsuitable geographic areas and services as men do could increase yields (such as water-intensive production in on their farms by 20–30 percent.46 Productiv- water-stressed areas). ity improvements are important not only in • Reduced gender inequality. Closing Africa but in all regions, particularly for poor the gender gap can help raise yields. farmers. In Asia, falling farm sizes with popu- The agenda includes: (i) strengthen- lation increases on finite land call for increases ing women’s land rights (through land in sustainable intensification of smallholder laws), increasing knowledge of these livestock production and horticulture. rights (through awareness and educa- tion), and supporting enforcement of Ensuring improved climate resilience of rights (through legal advice and capacity productivity growth and reduced GHG strengthening); (ii) improving the gender emissions are both needed for a more cli- mix in agricultural service providers and mate-smart agriculture. Key outcomes tailoring advice to the needs of women, an agenda for the global food system 17 including the content, timing, and means of irrigated areas in Sub-Saharan Africa of advice; (iii) supporting integration of where there is significant potential for women into producer organizations; (iv) further expansion; and (iv) improving ensuring equal access to information on water catchment and water productivity input programs; and (v) improving liter- (kg/unit of water), particularly in areas of acy on rural finance. high water stress such as the Middle East and North Africa, and Asia. • Greater commitment to agricultural research to develop a new generation of • Improved land governance and reduced technologies that can more efficiently land degradation. Improving land gov- deliver the triple win of higher productiv- ernance can significantly raise farm ity, greater resilience, and reduced GHG incomes and reduce poverty, with signif- emissions. These new technologies need icant scope to further improve land gov- to deliver more sustainable ecologocal ernance across countries, particularly in outcomes. The agenda includes: (i) step- Africa and Asia. The agenda includes: (i) ping up global, regional, and national improving tenure security over individual efforts where climate impacts are pro- land and communal lands; (ii) increasing jected to be greatest (in Sub-Saharan land access and tenure for women and for Africa, for example, which accounts for poor and vulnerable families; (iii) resolv- only 5 percent of global public spending ing land disputes; (iv) better managing on agricultural research and develop- public land; and (v) increasing efficiency ment);47 (ii) focusing more on the needs and transparency in land administration of poor farmers; and (iii) strengthening services. Activities should be aligned with links of national research systems with the Voluntary Guidelines on the Respon- extension services and other national sible Governance of Tenure of Land, systems though South-South exchanges, Fisheries and Forests in the Context of and further drawing on innovations for National Food Security. In addition, a smallholders from the CGIAR.48 major global push to reduce land degra- dation is needed to help restore soil fer- • Improved water management and sus- tility, boost organic matter, and increase tainable use. The agenda includes: (i) carbon storage in soils. Improving range- improving management of soil moisture land management and planned livestock in rain-fed agriculture to stabilize yields grazing practices can help reduce and and combining this with improvements even reverse land degradation. in other practices (soil fertility, improved varieties, and tillage practices) to help • Reduced GHG emissions from agricul- raise yields; (ii) improving rangeland ture and land use change. The agenda management and animal grazing prac- includes: (i) reducing nitrous oxide emis- tices to reduce water runoff, preserve soil sions through improved fertilizer use; moisture, and promote increased vegeta- (ii) reducing methane emissions through tive cover; (iii) supporting the expansion alternative wetting and drying of rice, and 18 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 improved livestock waste management; Development Goal indicators used to track (iii) reducing CO2 emissions equivalent progress on hunger are the proportion of the from land use change by raising yields (as population below the minimum level of dietary per preceding agenda) to reduce pressure energy consumption and the prevalence of for agricultural land expansion into for- moderately or severely underweight children ests, or promote production expansion under the age of five. The UN Zero Hunger in areas with no forests; and (iv) absorb- Challenge includes reduced child stunting as ing more carbon from the atmosphere a key objective. We will need to make prog- through improved rangeland manage- ress on all nutritional outcomes, including ment and increased use of landscape undernourishment (calorie deficiency), child approaches. The emissions intensity of stunting, and overweight/obesity. The spe- agricultural production will need to be cific measures in the Sustainable Develop- lowered across all countries, particularly ment Goals are to be finalized later this year. where overall emissions are large. Nota- A combination of support will be needed to bly, eight countries account for over 50 improve nutritional outcomes. Countries that percent of GHG emissions from agricul- have made significant progress in improving ture and land use change (Brazil, Indone- nutrition and health outcomes (such as Bra- sia, India, China, the United States, Aus- zil, China, and Chile) did so during peri- tralia, Nigeria, and Argentina). Growth ods of rapid growth. They also implemented in emissions is projected for South Asia nutrition-specific interventions, which were (with increased livestock demand) and complemented with investments in nutri- Sub-Saharan Africa (with a projected tion-sensitive interventions to address health, increase in fertilizer use). education, and social sector development.49 South-South learning and exchange can help • Strengthened human resource develop- draw on lessons from countries that have ment. The agenda includes: (i) improv- made significant progress. Raising agriculture ing agricultural education in schools and productivity and improving market access universities; (ii) strengthening capacity remain fundamental to improving incomes development of policy makers, agri- and to ensuring available food, but there are cultural researchers, extension works, additional elements needed to end hunger and and farmers, particularly in the poorest improve nutritional outcomes. Key outcomes countries; and (iii) tapping into skilled, needed, and key elements of the associated technology-savvy youth for sophisti- action agenda, include: cated high-tech, more precision agricul- ture that offers significant opportunities • Raised income and gender equality. to facilitate a more knowledge-intensive Higher household incomes can allow agriculture. families to invest in more and higher 2. Improving nutritional outcomes nutritious food consumption, access to A combination of support will be needed clean water, and better hygiene, which can to end hunger by 2030. The two Millennium help improve nutritional outcomes. Key an agenda for the global food system 19 elements of the agenda to raise incomes ◊ Nutrition-sensitive agriculture: Key are: (i) raising agricultural productiv- nutrition-sensitive investments in- ity and its climate resilience (previous clude a focus on female smallhold- section); (ii) strengthening value chains er farmers; technologies to reduce and agribusiness growth (addressed in women’s workloads; development next section), and raising rural non-farm and adoption of biofortified crop incomes. As indicated earlier, increasing varieties; food fortification that adds incomes by 60 percent (the gains needed micronutrients to processed foods; to raise average incomes of the poor in aflatoxin control strategies; crop di- low-income countries to the $1.25 per versification to food with higher nu- day poverty line) could reduce average trient content (such as horticulture, child stunting prevalence by an esti- pulses, dairy, and fish); and increased mated 34 percent and underweight prev- nutrition education through agricul- alence by 45 percent; and (iii) reducing tural extension and livelihoods pro- gender inequality to help raise incomes grams that can improve dietary va- and strengthen the link between higher riety in production and, if designed household income and nutritional out- and implemented appropriately, can comes, as women are responsible for most increase consumption. of food production, purchasing, process- ◊ Nutrition-sensitive social protection: ing, and meal preparation. Social protection programs may • Expanded coverage of nutrition-spe- have a greater impact on nutritional cific investments. Scaling up proven outcomes by fostering links between interventions to 90 percent coverage in conditional cash transfers for the the 34 countries with the highest stunt- poor and health services or water ing rates could potentially reduce child supply, hygiene, and sanitation pro- stunting by 20 percent worldwide and grams, and specifically through ac- wasting by 60 percent worldwide. The tivities related to nutrition education package of interventions includes, among or micronutrient supplementation.51 other things, deworming, growth moni- toring and promotion for children under • Ensured food availability, and stabil- two, and iron and folic acid supplements ity. Ensuring availability of sufficient for pregnant women.50 quantities and diversity of food is fun- damental. While higher food prices can • Refocused investments to make them reduce poverty over the long term,52 more nutrition-sensitive can further significant short-term escalations of help reduce stunting and underweight food prices, often induced by availability prevalence. The nutrition-sensitive invest- shortfalls, can negatively affect poverty53 ments include nutrition-sensitive agricul- and nutritional outcomes. For example, ture and social protection. the 2008 global food price spikes may 20 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 have increased global undernourishment prioritization of risks; (ii) developing by 6.8 percent, equivalent to 68 million and implementing integrated man- people.54 Key elements of the action agement strategies;  (iii) improving agenda include: early warning systems; (iv) invest- ing in resilient production systems, ◊ Food production, stocks, reducing infrastructure, and adaptation mea- food loss and waste: (i) adopting sures; and (v) using cost-effective climate-smart production practic- financial instruments  for  risk trans- es to improve resilience of the food fer (such as insurance, physical for- system to climate shocks; (ii) better ward contracts, and hedging) and managing food stocks through stock for risk coping (contingent financ- size, procurement, and release poli- ing, for instance, including weather cies to lower costs, reduce disincen- derivatives). tives for private storage, and ensure available food for targeting to the • Effective control of animal diseases. poorest groups; and (iii) reducing The agenda includes: (i) upgrading vet- food loss and waste to reduce stresses erinary and human public health systems on the food system to produce more. to perform at international standards and to collaborate for surveillance, early ◊ Trade and safety nets: (i) reducing ad detection, correct diagnosis, and prompt hoc trade-restricting policies, such and effective control of outbreaks; and (ii) as export bans, to prevent amplify- implementing a ‘one health’ approach to ing food price spikes, as they did in reduce the cost of addressing diseases at 2008;55 (ii) improving transparency the animal-human interface. of markets through improved quality and access to food market informa- • Curbed obesity and reduced food-re- tion, including on available stocks to lated noncommunicable diseases. A help better inform policy responses; comprehensive set of interventions are and (iii) aligning safety nets to help needed56 to address this challenging and preserve purchasing power of the relatively new area for many develop- poorest and most vulnerable popula- ing countries. Included among these are tions when food prices spike. Safety reducing subsidies on food high in sugar nets can help dampen the political and salt, providing better information pressure to reduce food prices for and education to inform diet choice, and poor consumers through trade mea- improved food industry standards. sures that also reduce farmer incen- 3. Strengthening value chains and tives to produce food when global improving market access food prices spike. More inclusive and efficient value chains. ◊ Risk management: The agenda in- Encouragingly, the projected food demand cludes: (i) country  assessments  and growth closely matches needed income an agenda for the global food system 21 Table 1 Projected future food demand offers opportunities for higher farm incomes and post-harvest value addition Percentage change in projected demand for food products between 2015 and 2030 (%)  Food Products World Dev Devg SSA MENA LAC SA EAP Cereals, food 16 3 18 56 22 14 19 7 Cereals, all uses 18 12 20 - - - - - Roots and tubers 20 0 24 47 26 12 37 4 Sugar and sugar crops (raw sugar eq.) 21 1 27 62 25 12 32 22 Pulses, dry 21 5 20 60 15 10 11 4 Vegetable oils, oilseeds & products (oil eq.) 26 6 36 64 30 21 41 30 Meat (carcass weight) 25 8 35 63 45 26 76 30 Milk and dairy, excl. butter (fresh milk eq.) 23 7 34 50 31 22 37 35 Other foods (kcal) 20 7 24 48 26 19 31 17 Total foods (kcal) 20 4 23 55 25 16 25 14 Source: Derived from Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma (2012). World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. The 2012 Revision. FAO. Notes: Dev = Developed countries, Devg = Developing countries, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa, NE/NA = Near East and North Africa, LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, SA = South Asia, EAP = East Asia and the Pacific. gains by the poor. For example, in Sub- • Aligned policies with the shifting com- Saharan Africa the needed average income position of demand. Aligning farmer increase of the poor of 60 percent is matched incentives, through associated policies, by about a 60 percent projected increase in to respond to changing market demands food demand. In South Asia, it is about 30 can help raise incomes of poor farmers. percent (see table 1). If these increases in food The agenda includes: (i) removing price demand are met with an equivalent increase in policy biases against production of high- food supply by the poor, driven by productiv- er-value crops (such as far-reaching sub- ity growth, and if supply increases match the sidy programs for traditional cereal crops) demand increases with average prices largely that create disincentives for farmers to unchanged, then the needed income gains are respond to market signals and that create possible, provided the poor are linked to these inefficiencies in value chains, which can growing markets. Actively engaging women contribute to non-cereal food inflation in value chains and developing value chains of and poor dietary diversity; (ii) remov- products women are already involved in can ing restrictions on using land designated increase economic growth, including livestock only for specific crops, particularly if products (such as eggs and dairy) to respond these crops are also leading to negative to the shift in demand toward livestock prod- environmental outcomes, including high ucts. Key outcomes needed, and key elements GHG emissions; and (iii) facilitating of the associated action agenda to strengthen trade within countries and regions, and value chains and improve smallholder market globally. access, include: 22 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 • Upgraded infrastructure, logistics, and (iii) reducing overuse and misuse of institutions, and information and antibiotics in livestock and aquaculture to communication technology. Reducing lower their impact on microbial resistance transaction costs, improving the structure in humans. of markets, and access to information can • Reduced food loss and waste. Reducing increase prices farmers receive for their food losses can help reduce income losses, produce (crops, livestock, and fish). The and together with lower food waste can agenda includes: (i) addressing structural increase overall food supply without barriers such as movement restrictions GHG emissions, and help preserve food and building roads to link smallholder micronutrients. The agenda includes: (i) producers to major road networks; (ii) improving economic incentives through increasing competition in wholesale mar- infrastructure and logistic investments to kets; (iii) streamlining or reducing multi- reduce transport time and costs, improv- ple taxes and fees; (iv) encouraging private ing market information to better target storage and handling; and (v) developing poorly supplied markets, and facilitating sustainable models of linking market data product differentiation in markets for collection with ICT technology providers sale of less standardized, lower-quality to help improve access by poor farmers to products; (ii) addressing climatic factors market information. (temperature and humidity) through • Improved supply chain management. improved storage technology; and (iii) Strengthening producer organizations improving knowledge and learning. and value chain coordination can help • Fortified food. Supporting fortification smallholders better link to local, urban, of processed food with vitamins and min- regional, and international markets and erals can enhance the nutritional value of lower costs (operating, procurement, food. Actions could include: (i) develop- marketing, and distribution). ing and supporting financing mechanisms • Improved food safety and quality stan- to offset additional fortification costs of dards. The agenda includes: (i) improving commercial food processors, millers, or capacity to meet food quality and safety refiners; and (ii) developing regulatory standards in growing high- and middle- frameworks for fortification standards. income markets, including in Europe and • Productive partnerships. The agenda Central Asia and in Latin America, to includes: (i) linking smallholders with help improve smallholder competitive- larger-scale producers to help them link ness in these markets and improve domes- with markets, advisory services on agri- tic health and nutrition; (ii) addressing cultural practices, and inputs; and (ii) cre- food safety issues, such as aflatoxins, that ating effective forums for policy dialogue both have a negative impact on health between producers, agribusiness, and and reduce options for trading key agri- the public sector to better align policies cultural products like maize and peanuts; an agenda for the global food system 23 to commercial realties and changing depend on the extent to which policies and opportunities. financing are aligned to these objectives. • Expanded agribusiness growth and Targeting the poor. Directly targeting invest- jobs. The agenda includes: (i) improving ment to benefit those living below the $1.25 the rural investment climate (streamlin- per day poverty line, the undernourished, and ing and reducing licenses and fees); (ii) children who are stunted and underweight promoting medium, small, and microen- will likely lead to a greater impact per dollar terprise actors in value chains, especially spent than programs that do not reach these in rural towns; (iii) targeting investments groups. Targeting investment programs can (in roads, electricity, and water) in partic- be particularly challenging, requiring close ular economic clusters to help induce pri- monitoring, and avoidance of elite capture. vate agribusiness investment and increase Well-targeted programs can help increase the economies of scale; and (iv) improving strength of the link between income growth access of local agribusinesses to competi- and reductions in poverty and hunger as well tive financing to help them compete with as the effectiveness of nutrition-specific and foreign agribusiness investors who have nutrition-sensitive investments. access to cheaper finance, but also seiz- ing opportunities for foreign investors to Improving the alignment and efficiency of apply their globally sourced financing to public spending. Countries have legitimate benefit supply chains. food security concerns, reflected in their sup- port programs to farmers and protection of consumers. And many have had past success. However, in many countries these support programs are becoming financially costly and are hampering sustainability and growth. Key elements of the action agenda include: • Shifting from current subsidies to investments in climate-smart out- comes. Aligning agriculture support to the adoption of more climate-resil- ient practices and technologies can help improve resilience. Currently about $500 billion is provided in subsidies to farm- Aligning Policies and ers (through price supports and direct Financing payment) in OECD countries plus Bra- The magnitude of additional resources needed zil, China, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Rus- to end poverty and hunger permanently will sia, South Africa, and Ukraine.57 These 24 ending poverty and hunger by 2030 countries account for half of the global mise productivity and resilience (with GHG emissions from agriculture. Ensur- water and soil degradation), and lead to ing price support does not shift produc- high GHG emissions. Consider options tion to more emission-intensive practices, to achieve objectives more efficiently. For and making direct payments to farmers example, new technologies (cell phones, conditioned upon adoption of climate biometric cards, and so on) have lowered resilient and mitigation practices, should the costs and transfer programs, and ini- lead to better climate outcomes. Already, tiatives on financial inclusion make shifts 30 percent of direct farm payments under to these programs more feasible. the EU Common Agricultural Policy Ensuring that private investment benefits require adoption of environmentally ben- the poor. Since 2008, private sector interest eficial farming practices. and investment in agriculture in developing • Using new technologies to provide sim- countries has increased. We need to ensure ilar levels of support in more efficient that the inflow of private capital delivers ways. Price supports, inputs policies, and growth and poverty reduction and helps to restricting land to the production of cer- reduce hunger, following the Principles for tain crops can limit crop diversification, Responsible Investment in Agriculture and induce economic inefficiency, compro- Food Systems. an agenda for the global food system 25 A Call for Action The historical evolution of the global food existing alliances and commitments, such as system has made possible rapid urbanization the UN Zero Hunger Challenge, the Global and population growth, contributing signifi- Alliance on Climate-Smart Agriculture, cantly to welfare improvements in the world. Scaling-up Nutrition, and others. Following The impacts on poverty and hunger have been the finalization of the Sustainable Devel- positive and significant. Yet we stand at a crit- opment Goals later this year, we call on ical moment in history, where we can and we these key alliances and coalitions to come must help shape the evolution of the global together to align their respective initiatives food system to permanently end poverty and and actions around commonly agreed tar- hunger by 2030. Climate change adds to the gets. This can catalyze efforts, align focus, and complexity of this challenge. The agenda is initiate immediate action. The agenda out- large and will require focused, multisectoral lined here cuts across the entire World Bank approaches and stronger partnerships. Group, including all Global Practices, Cross- Cutting Solution Areas, and the IFC and The Global Strategic Framework for Food MIGA. The World Bank Group will come Security and Nutrition provides an overar- together on this agenda and work as one Bank ching framework that can help coordinate to help countries design and implement inte- action on hunger. The implications of the grated approaches to end poverty and hun- food system action agenda to end poverty ger. With other partners, we can help shape a and hunger by 2030 are highlighted in the global food system that will deliver a healthier previous sections. There are many ongoing and more prosperous world now and for gen- initiatives on elements of the agenda through erations to come. an agenda for the global food system 27 Endnotes States, it is 13. Source: World Bank, Growing Africa: Unlocking the Potential of Agribusiness (Washington, DC: 2013). 1. In developing countries, the poverty head count 16. World Bank, Republic of India: Accelerating Agricultural declined from 43 percent in 1990 to 21 percent in Productivity Growth (Washington, DC: 2014). 2010, and the share of the population undernourished declined from 23 percent to 15 percent over the same 17. National Sample Survey Office, National Statistical period. Source: http://data.worldbank.org/mdgs/ Organisation, Employment and Unemployment Situation compare-trends-and-targets-of-each-mdg-indicator. in India: 2009–10 (New Delhi: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Government of India, 2. In low-income countries, the poverty head count 2011). declined from 65 percent in 1990 to 48 percent in 2010; the share of the population under- 18. In Togo, the share of the population in poverty, under- nourished declined from 38 percent to 28 per- nourished, and the share of children under five moder- cent. Source: http://data.worldbank.org/mdgs/ ately or severely underweight are 52.5, 18.9, and 16.5 compare-trends-and-targets-of-each-mdg-indicator. percent, respectively. In Yemen, the respective shares are 9.8, 29.6, and 35.5 percent. In Ethiopia, the shares are 3. UN Population Division data. 36.8, 36.5, and 29.2 percent. All data are at the time of 4. P. Olinto, K. Beegle, C. Sobrado, and H. Uematsu, the latest poverty survey in the respective countries. The State of the Poor: Where Are the Poor, Where 19. O. Ecker, C. Breisinger, and K. Pauw, “Growth Is Good, is Extreme Poverty Harder to End, and What is the but Is Not Enough to Improve Nutrition,” in S. Fan Current Profile of the World’s Poor (Washington, DC: and R. Pandya-Lorch, eds, Reshaping Agriculture for World Bank, 2013). Nutrition and Health (Washington, DC: International 5. Ibid. Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2012). 6. N. Yoshida, H Uematsu, and C. Sobrado, “Is Extreme 20. Estimates [from S. Tiwari, H. Zaman, and J. Saaveda, Poverty Going to End? An Analytical Framework to “Economic Growth, Poverty, and Nutrition,” in World Evaluate Progress in Ending Extreme Poverty.” Policy Bank, Improving Nutrition Through Multisectoral Research Working Paper 6740 (Washington, DC: Approaches (Washington, DC: 2013)] imply that a 60 World Bank, 2014). percent increase in incomes could reduce stunting by 8.9 percentage points, and the underweight incidence 7. World Bank, World Development Report 2008: Agricul- by 6.8 percentage points. As currently 25 percent of ture for Development (Washington, DC: 2007). children under five are stunted, and about 15 percent 8. Independent Evaluation Group, Cost-Benefit Analysis are underweight (according to UNICEF-WHO- of World Bank Projects (Washington, DC: World Bank, World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates in 2010). 2013, “Levels and Trends in Child Malnutrition”), this equates to reducing stunting by about 35 percent 9. From 1999/2000 to 2010, cereal yields increased at 7.2 (8.9/25) and underweight children under five by about percent and 4.4 percent per year in Rwanda and Ethi- 45 percent (6.8/15). opia, respectively, leading to a respective decline in the poverty head count rate by 21 percent and 33 percent. 21. S. Vollmer, K. Harttgen, M. A. Subramanyam, J. Finlay, S. Klasen, and S. V. Subramanian, “Association between 10. In Zambia cereal yields increased at 5.9 percent per year Economic Growth and Early Childhood Undernu- from early 2000 but with limited poverty reduction. trition: Evidence from 121 Demographic and Health 11. J.-P. Pradere, “Improving Animal Health and Livestock Surveys from 36 Low-Income and Middle-Income Productivity to Reduce Poverty,” Scientific and Technical Countries,” Lancet Global Health 2: e225–e234, 2014. Review (Office International of Epizootics) 33 (3): 22. Heady, D. 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