JOBS UMBRELLA MULTIDONOR TRUST FUND ANNUAL REPORT 2017 CONTENTS Abbreviations v Acknowledgments vii Program at a Glance 1 Introduction 5 Early Findings and Results 15 Lessons to Date 45 Annexes 53 ABBREVI ATIONS ABBREVIATIONS CGE computable general equilibrium DEC Development Economics (Vice Presidency) DFID Department for International Development (United Kingdom) DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo FCS fragile and conflict-affected situation FCV fragile, conflict, and violence FDI foreign direct investment GDP gross domestic product GP Global Practice I/O input/output ICT information and communication technology IDA International Development Association IE impact evaluation IFC International Finance Corporation ILO International Labour Organization IT information technology IZA Institute of Labor Economics LWP Let’s Work Partnership M&E monitoring and evaluation MDTF Multidonor Trust Fund MSME micro, small and medium enterprise RCT randomized control trial S4YE Solutions for Youth Employment SECO State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Switzerland) SIDA Swedish International Development Agency SME small and medium enterprise VC value chain WBG World Bank Group v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was authored by the members of the Jobs Umbrella Multidonor Trust Fund (MDTF) Team, David Robalino, Fareeba Mahmood, Siv Tokle, Alvaro Gonzalez, Sonia Madhvani, Vismay Parikh, and Emily (Beibei) Yan. The authors are grateful for contributions from: Johanne Buba, Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer, Eliana Carranza, Luc Christiaensen, Thomas Farole, Jan von der Goltz, Sudha Bala Krishnan, Maria Laura Sanchez Puerta, Javier Sanchez, Ian Walker, Michael Weber, and Hernan Winkler. The authors are grateful for comments and inputs from the representatives of the six MDTF donors,: Miguel Laric, Department for International Development/UK AID, Tom Eriksen, Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Gerhard Ressel, German Federal Ministry For Economic Cooperation And Development;, Elisabeth Gruber and Seena Garcia, Austria Ministry of Finance; Michaela Flenner, the Austrian Development Agency; and Hanna Marsk, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency. The MDTF has benefited from the guidance and support of Michal Rutkowski, Senior Director and Head of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice of the World Bank. Finally, we would like to acknowledge the task teams implementing and reporting on the grant financed activities detailed in Annex B. vii J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 viii PROGRAM AT A GL ANCE 1 PROGRAM AT A GLANCE “Jobs are what we earn, what we do, and sometimes even who we are. For the poor and vulnerable of the world, jobs are key to ending poverty and driving development. But not all jobs are equally transformational. Good jobs add value to society, taking into account the benefits they have on the people who hold them, and the potential spillover effects on others.” — World Development Report: Jobs, World Bank Group 1 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 1 PROGRAM AT A GLANCE This annual report details the activities of the Jobs Umbrella Multidonor Trust Fund (MDTF), with operational reporting through January 31, 2017, and general progress and budget reporting as of March 31, 2017. 6 FIGURE 1 Program at a glance Estimated Target US$100 million1 Current Value $46 million Closing Date December 31, 2021 Total Number of Grants 89 grants in 39 countries, five regions, and global, and Total Value with projects valued at $35.8 million Country Activities Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, China, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Ghana, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Lebanon, Liberia, Madagascar, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Niger, Pakistan, Paraguay, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, South Africa, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, Vietnam, West Bank and Gaza, and Zambia. Regional and Global Africa, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America, South Asia, and Multi-Country Activities Current Donors The Governments of Norway, the United Kingdom, Austria, Germany, and Sweden are providing financing through Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs, UK Department for International Development (DFID), the Austrian Ministry of Finance, the Austrian Development Agency (ADA), and the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA). Note: Switzerland contributes via State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) through a parallel MDTF previously established in the International Finance Corporation (IFC). Status as of March 31, 2017. 6 All $ are in US dollars. 2 PROGRAM AT A GL ANCE The MDTF has coverage across all the regions, with a priority on multi-country, global activities, and activities in Africa (Figure 2). FIGURE 2 Countries where MDTF grants are being implemented 39 countries +multi-country $ 35.8 million 3 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 4 INTRODUCTION 2 INTRODUCTION “[Multidonor] Trust Fund activities were extremely useful as a demonstration effect, whereby the WB [World Bank] team could recruit capable organizations to design and pilot test a training, which was important to provide evidence to the Government of how this program could work. Based on our pilot testing and initial results, the Government decided to launch its own program which allows for a much greater impact.” — Linking Vulnerable Youth with Digital Employment Opportunities, Pakistan 5 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 2 INTRODUCTION The Jobs Umbrella Multidonor Trust Fund (the MDTF) is a financing instrument that supports the World Bank Group’s (WBG) jobs strategy to contribute to the twin goals of reducing poverty and ensuring inclusive growth in the world’s poorest countries. This effort is led by the Jobs Group, which provides guidance on integrated, multisector jobs strategies. The goal of these strategies is to create policies and programs that address three main challenges most countries face in varying degrees: creating jobs in the formal private sector; improving the quality of informal jobs; and expanding access to (better) jobs for certain population groups, such as women, youth, and the poor. The MDTF’s all-encompassing goal is the innovation, research, and development of the best evidence-based solutions for job creation. At its inception, the MDTF’s goal was to expand the frontiers of global knowledge through innovation in the area of jobs through: • investing in data and developing jobs diagnostic tools; • identifying best practices and solutions to common jobs challenges, such as promoting small and medium enterprise (SME) growth, extending social insurance to the informal sector, and supporting value chain (VC) development for jobs; • conducting literature reviews, new research, and impact evaluations (IEs) on specific jobs challenges; • designing and supporting integrated job strategies in different country contexts, including in fragile and conflict situations, and in partnership with the private sector; • helping build client capacity in collecting and analyzing data and models, and implementing diagnostics, strategies, and programs, to build ownership and sustainability; and • developing partnerships between practitioners in the development and private sectors to inform and support the design and implementation of new jobs lending operations. 6 INTRODUCTION These activities remain the cornerstone of the MDTF but with a renewed priority on high-impact solutions and interventions. These solutions include: • mechanisms to promote investments and job creation in the private sector through entrepreneurship programs, SME support, and VC development; • interventions to improve earnings and working conditions in the informal sector by linking producers to markets and VCs; • interventions to facilitate labor market transitions from inactivity and unemployment into jobs or from low- to higher-quality jobs — across sectors, occupations, and regions, including between countries; and • interventions to reduce spatial mismatches. • These interventions are relevant across countries and can be adapted to respond to the needs of youth, women, the poor, and those living in conflict regions (see Figure 3). FIGURE 3 Types of high-impact solutions and intervention by policy area Challenges Priority Solutions Capital for Jobs Jobs for Women Jobs for Value Chain Development the Poor +PCTJO$POțJDU "șFDUFE Regions Spatial & Migration Jobs for Youth Job Creation in the Formal Active Labor Market Programs 4FDUPS Quality of Informal Jobs 7 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 The Jobs Group collaborates with many sectors throughout the WBG, and reports to a multisector WBG Steering Committee. The collaboration through this Steering Committee is expected to result in more effective jobs components with greater impact in both the International Development Association (IDA) 18 operations, and in middle-income countries with employment challenges. For both the Jobs Group and the MDTF, partnerships are a significant aspect of daily work. These partnerships allow for richer forms of solutions, increased standardization, and a greater base for global dissemination and uptake. Internally, collaboration is across sectors where teams are working on jobs operations. Key partners thus far have been the fragile, conflict, and violence (FCV) states and Gender Cross Cutting Solutions Areas (CCSAs); Agriculture, Trade and Competitiveness, Social Protection, Transport and Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), and Poverty Global Practices (GPs); and the International Finance Corporation (IFC). Externally, partnerships exist with the International Labour Organization (ILO), G20, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Consultative Group to Assist the Poorest, International Trade Unions Cooperative (ITUC), Solutions for Youth Employment (S4YE), the Network on Jobs and Development,6 and the Let’s Work Partnership (LWP), encompassing the private sector, multilateral development banks, other international finance institutions, and donor agencies. THE MDTF’S FIVE ACTIVITY WINDOWS The MDTF was created as a tool to bring all jobs-related endeavors under one instrument for concerted impact. It folded in the LWP and associated agenda, the Jobs and Youth partnership on S4YE, and the Research Partnership on Jobs, which brought together the ILO and the WBG’s Development Economics (DEC) researchers. It prioritizes activities in five main Windows: • Window 1 — Data Collection, Diagnostics, and Evaluations on Jobs; activities selected are expected to support the development and provision of advice on the implementation of sector-led jobs strategies around specific country challenges, based on sound data, diagnostics, and evaluations.7 • Window 2 — Private Sector Development (prioritizing Let’s Work); activities selected by the Let’s Work Steering Committee place a priority on creating more and better jobs, working with private sector companies to strengthen their VCs, and promoting quality jobs and the inclusion of vulnerable groups. 6 The Network on Jobs and Development (NJD) is a partnership fi nanced by the World Bank’s Development Grant Facility and sponsored by the Jobs Group. It is comprised of fi ve research institutions from various regions of the world: Development Policy Research Unit at University of Cape Town, (DPRU, South Africa); HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (HKUST IEMS, Hong Kong); Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER, India); Institute for Structural Research (IBS, Poland); and Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA). 7 Activities were expected to cover, but were not limited to (a) expanding existing data sets and building new data sets to incorporate labor data through new surveys and modules; (b) designing jobs projection tools; (c) integrating and designing multisectoral tools to assist jobs diagnostics; (d) designing and implementing jobs diagnostic tools in select countries; and (e) providing technical assistance to countries on jobs strategies and frameworks. 8 INTRODUCTION • Window 3 — Supporting Job Creation for Youth; activities selected aim to strengthen the global knowledge on youth employment. 8 • Window 4 — Jobs in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS); activities selected are expected to develop and coordinate multisectoral diagnostics, and generate options for innovative and scalable interventions for job creation.9 • Window 5 — Actionable and Robust Research; this window operated on a limited Call for Proposals with the selection of activities by a DEC-ILO Selection and Steering Committee. The method of selecting activities to be financed varies by window. Under Window 5, the Call for Proposals was organized around five themes: (1) shared prosperity, inequality, and the functioning of labor markets; (2) the impact of social protection programs, including employment generation programs, cash transfers, and pensions, on growth and employment; (3) labor market dynamics for disadvantaged populations (such as youth, older workers, women, and the poor); (4) the changing nature of work, including effects of technology, globalization, relocation of jobs, employment relationships, and climate change; and (5) how to expand labor demand and job creation. Collaboration between the WBG’s DEC group and the ILO was strongly encouraged 8 Activities were expected to cover areas like (a) building a global partnership to link stakeholders involved in imple- menting and supporting youth employment programs, and evaluating and advising on policies; (b) making available best practices on innovative, scalable, and sustainable options to enhance youth employment and productivity; and (c) disseminating and sharing evidence on the benefits and success of youth employment through a knowledge agenda. 9 Activities were expected to cover topics like (a) preparing an inventory of current initiatives on jobs and programs in FCS countries; (b) disseminating analysis on strategies for job creation in FCS; (c) supporting FCS countries on how to use new job diagnostic tools, and advising on innovative interventions for job creation; (d) building capacity in government agencies to diagnose jobs constraints and priorities, and monitor performance of jobs programs; and (e) providing technical assistance to FCS countries in designing multisectoral strategies and reforms to expand job opportunities. 9 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 in undertaking this work, and a Selection Committee co-chaired by the head of each entity selected eight proposals — six of which were joint-valued at approximately $1.8 million. Thus far, activities under Windows 1, 3, and 4 have been selected based on open and competitive Calls for Proposals (Box 1) where a technical committee selected the best proposals. Lines between the windows can be blurred as there is overlap in topics within the windows. BOX 1: THE SUCCESSFUL RESPONSE TO CALL FOR PROPOSALS Under windows 1, 3, and 4, the proposals were vetted against a set of criteria, with the heaviest weight given to the technical quality of proposals. The response was overwhelming. A total of 169 proposals were received for a total “ask” of $56 million. By end-May 2015, 29 proposals were selected for a total allocation of $7.9 million (see Figure 4). FIGURE 4 Response for first call for proposals 169 proposals Total “ask”of $56 million received BY END OF MAY 2015 29 proposals Total allocation of $7.9 million selected The selected proposals showed distinct clustering around certain themes and identified a “gap map.” The themes included Private Sector Development, Informality, Jobs Quality, Gender, Spatial, ICT, Data, FCV, and Youth. This “gap map” helped prioritize discussions on areas of interest in the jobs agenda across the GPs; as such, in partnership with key GPs, the Jobs Group was able to develop the priority areas for the Second Call for Proposals. Two types of proposals were sought for the second call. These included activities to design and implement innovative pilots and evaluate their impact, and activities that sought to add or deepen the jobs impact of an existing or largely designed intervention. Technical staff in the Jobs Group and partner GPs assessed fleshed-out concepts to ensure quality, implementability, and viability. Since the call for proposals, the projects have undergone transformations to meet the demands of global development needs. See Figure 5 for more details on the response for the second call for proposals. 10 INTRODUCTION FIGURE 5 Response for second call for proposals 140 proposals Total “ask”of $67 million received s rea ty a ICT ior i 4 pr Urbanization Informality and Spatial Mismatch Youth 24 activities FCV (cross-cutting theme) selected 12 Pilots: 12 “Deepening” activities to deepen the jobs lens Afghanistan in lending operations: Bangladesh-India-Sri Lanka China Afghanistan Colombia Burkina Faso Cote d’Ivoire Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC] Jordan Ethiopia Lebanon Georgia Liberia Ghana Moldova Haiti Nicaragua Jordan South Africa Madagascar Turkey Mozambique West Africa and Sahel Tajikistan The remaining sections of this report provide an update on progress by the different windows and calls for proposals. They highlight key topics and emerging findings from both smaller deliverables and IEs, and then outline the lessons learned and the way forward. 11 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 BOX 2: WHAT SUCCESS LOOKS LIKE At the end of the first three years, the activities undertaken through grants from the MDTF will lead to these areas of impact: 1) Jobs diagnostics tools mainstreamed in WBG analytical work and operations Jobs diagnostics have been front and center of all the larger country pilots under Let’s Work. In the case of Let’s Work Zambia, the diagnostic coupled with value chain (VC) analysis has resulted in the Government of Zambia requesting further assistance in developing its jobs strategy for the country. Let’s Work expects to see more examples of this as each of the larger country-specific activities come to closure. 2) Encouraging innovation in the area of jobs The MDTF grants have allowed the WBG to innovate and take some risks in the areas of jobs. These innovative pilots and their associated evaluations provide the evidence to inform the design of new jobs operations. There has been greater priority on, for example, women-centric activities, digital jobs, socio-emotional skills, linking smallholder farmers—especially women— to VCs, and entrepreneurship in FCV context. Early results and evidence from pilot activities are helping leverage significant investment operations, including IDA-18 commitments. While details are in Annex F, Figure 6 provides some examples: FIGURE 6 Leveraging operations MDTF Financed Grant Leveraging IDA/IBRD Operation or Government Program Let’s Work Lending Program of $100M on Bangladesh ($1.0M) Export Competitiveness for Jobs Let’s Work Development Policy Zambia ($0.9M) Operation of $130M Let’s Work Lending Program of $60M on Tunisia ($0.8M) Productive Inclusion Opportunities Lebanon Pilot and Let’s Work Protential Program for Results Value Chain ($1.3M) (P4R) of approximately $250M Pakistan – KP Province: Linking Vulnerable Government Program targeting Youth with Digital Employment ($0.3M) 25 districts – value TBD 12 INTRODUCTION 3) Measurement tools adopted by the WBG and Let’s Work partners These measuring tools are: (a) standardized input/output (I/O) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for ex-ante assessment; (b) VC surveys to assess the potential for job creation within a VC; and (c) tracers to measure the impact of investment on jobs (individual, firms, and users of infrastructure). Thus far, the WBG has been able to pilot several VCs and CGE models. Tracer studies have been slower to take off, and the MDTF has initiated one thus far. For VCs and CGEs, both have delivered results in the form of standardized tools. 4) New monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tools supporting the design and implementation of new jobs lending/investment operations To support mainstreaming the jobs agenda in WBG operations, the MDTF has developed a Jobs M&E Toolkit to help teams working with project implementation units with simple tools for administrative data collection on jobs for use ex-ante in design of projects, as well as monitoring and reporting on results. The toolkit provides a set of adaptable guidance on project-level indicators, simple data collection forms, and training material for clients, which are tailored by beneficiary type: individuals and firms. The menu of indicators is derived from the Jobs Framework for outcomes on Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access. The data collection forms are based on household or enterprise surveys, and the tracers and VC survey instruments under Let’s Work Pillar 2. The indicators will be gender-disaggregated wherever possible in order to improve understanding of the gender dimensions of the links between investments and jobs. Such jobs-focused measurement systems are being implemented in a number of MDTF- or Let’s Work-supported countries, including Tunisia, Zambia, Burkina Faso, and Kenya, and often linked to MDTF-funded IEs to complement the monitoring systems with independent and rigorous assessment of results. 13 3 EARLY FINDINGS AND RESULTS “The biggest achievement of the activity has been to get the Government of Rajasthan, at all levels, to agree to monitor and evaluate the jobs dimension in an integrated manner. This is not usually the focus of rural roads investment projects, and there is usually no indicator or data collection related to jobs. Via the Jobs MDTF, we have been able to get Government acceptance to restructure an investment project to include this dimension.” — Roads to Jobs: Accelerating the Development Impact of Roads in Rajasthan, India 15 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 3 EARLY FINDINGS AND RESULTS Regardless of window, when aggregated, the MDTF activities show a satisfying spread across the regions, with a focus on Africa (see Figure 7). When charted by theme (see Figure 8), the spread across priority areas shows a good coverage of topic areas. FIGURE 7 MDTF activities by region with associated funding 30 12 11.19 Val ue of Grants ($ mi l l i on USD) 25 10 Number of Grants 20 8 6.99 15 6 4.52 10 3.73 3.91 4 3.08 5 2 1.58 22 9 6 10 9 8 25 0 0 AFR SAR EAP ECA LAC MENA Global Number of Grants Total Value of Grants ($M) Note: Cumulative, as of March 31, 2017. Global implies a grant with activities in more than one region of the world. FIGURE 8 Number and value of MDTF activities by theme 40 20 17.96 Value of Grants ($ million USD) 35 17.73 18 17.23 16 30 Number of Grants 14 25 12 11.25 20 10 8.65 8.64 15 8 5.62 6 10 4 5 2 36 26 28 21 16 35 36 0 0 Gender FCV Informality Spatial Issues ICT Youth Private Sector Engagement Number of Grants Total Value of Grants ($M) Note: Themes as reported by Fund Task Team Leaders in grant application. Values estimated involve double counting as projects address multiple themes. SMALL GRANTS Many of the MDTFs allocations, regardless of window, have ranged from $50,000 to $300,000. These smaller grants sometimes provided gap financing for deepening jobs-related content in analytics underway, or fully financed a data collection effort which informed jobs analytics. Boxes 3, 4 and 5 give a sampling of preliminary findings and activities under both types. 16 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S BOX 3: SAMPLING OF PRELIMINARY FINDINGS FROM SMALL GRANTS Country Findings FINDINGS RELATED TO “JOB CREATION” OUTCOMES Early findings from a study suggest that: • migration to secondary towns has a positive effect on poverty reduction, likely resulting Tanzania in job creation and earnings increases. • those economies that create more jobs while growing often have better macro and regulatory environments. (TF0A1622) FINDINGS RELATED TO “JOB QUALITY” OUTCOMES A business training program — designed specifically for women — improved job quality, Kenya particularly through achieving higher business survival rates, higher profits, and better mental health and subjective standards of living. (TF0A1854) A study found that women are less likely to work in wage jobs, and those who do, earn Vietnam lower wages, although the wage gaps for women has declined over time. (TF0A0882) A study on informality discovered that working conditions (especially health hazards in the workplace) are an important consideration for workers and employers. In order to improve Bangladesh jobs quality policies and promote formality, policy makers can incentivize features such as better working conditions that are beneficial to both parties. (TF0A0782) Research indicates that fi rms respond to violence by reducing their activities in violent Afghanistan areas. From a policy standpoint, this research suggests that policies that aim to promote economic activity in conflict-affected regions must also address the risks to firms from ongoing insecurity. (TF0A2657) FINDINGS RELATED TO “JOB ACCESS” OUTCOMES A trade study found a positive effect of exogenous trade shocks on wages and female labor South Asia force participation at the district level. (TF0A1876) Preliminary findings from a training provider survey indicate that female participants are less Kenya likely to benefit from scholarships; training institutions perform well with graduation rates, but graduates have difficulty finding employment. (TF0A0808) A study observed high unemployment rates of recent university graduates: these have raised Vietnam concerns about a mismatch between skills and employer needs, reflect a transition to the job market, but diminish sharply over time. (TF0A0882) A project aimed at studying the policy solutions for youth economic inactivity found that high rates of inactivity, underemployment, and employment in unregistered, unregulated work may Indonesia lead to “scarring,” that is, lower lifetime earnings, higher probability of unemployment, and longer periods of job search throughout their working lives. (TF0A0982) A study concluded that in mega-cities with rapid rail transit construction such as Beijing, unequal China employment still exists and is affected by factors like income and mode of transportation, despite high average income levels and relatively good infrastructure. (TF0A0883) An overview of the informal sector has found that informal firms are often small and involve personal or family ties with the proprietor. It is also noted that although informal markets are quite open to new entrants, those launching new activities are almost invariably starting with funds derived from family or own employment. Mali and Niger The impact of FCV circumstances on the informal economy is strongly influenced by the migratory patterns of violent groups — mostly from northern Mali and from southern Niger. Residents who fl ee violent groups are best positioned if they have family connections in better-protected locations, that is, someone who can take them in and hopefully provide work. Those without the means to flee may wind up as involuntary recruits. (TF0A1069) 17 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 BOX 4: STRENGTHENING JOBS DATA — AVAILABILITY, QUALITY, AND STATISTICAL CAPACITY One of the challenges in generating jobs knowledge involves improving the quantity and quality of data that are available to researchers and practitioners. Toward this end, a few grant activities prioritize discovering, constructing, and improving jobs databases either globally or within a country: “Labor Market Big Data Analysis for Skills Forecast and Improved Matching” (TF0A0791), through an empirical analysis of information generated by Babajobs — an Indian online jobs portal, discovered that online jobs portal data can be used in research related to labor economics and workforce skills development in these fields: labor market monitoring and analysis; demand for workforce skills; job search behavior and skills matching; predictive analysis of skills demand; and experimental studies. • “The Global Micro Database” (TF0A0816) consolidated a household survey database on key labor and poverty variables from around the world. The project includes three components: integrating the International Income Distribution Database (I2D2) with the Global Micro Database; adding new surveys and variables to the combined variables; and creating documentation for how the combined database is constructed. New jobs-relevant variables were added to the surveys, including disaggregated location, detailed industry, occupation codes, second jobs, labor indicators with one-year recall, and migration. • “The Job Quality Framework” (TF0A0783) integrated a completely new framework as part of the Doing Business database. The framework goes beyond the concept of efficiency and labor market flexibility to enable a multidimensional measurement of job quality. • “The Jobs Indicators on Enterprise-Level Data (JIELD)” (TF0A1957) launched a new data set which includes indicators on jobs dynamics using enterprise-level data to inform policy makers about job creation patterns. The database addresses the current scarcity in firm-level data that assess the demand side of the labor market. • “Data, Diagnostics, and Institutional Innovations for Jobs” (TF0A1438) in Ecuador improved policy making for labor market inclusion for vulnerable populations through collecting innovative data on socio-economic skills relevant for labor market inclusion, and supporting the creation of a “Labor Lab,” a multisectoral and multidisciplinary unit to promote better diagnostics and data. • “Afghanistan Conflict and Violence” (TF0A2657) explores the application of commercial mobile phone data as a novel source of information about firm behavior in conflict-affected countries. Using Afghanistan as the empirical setting, the project combines mobile phone data from over 2,000 Afghan firms with data from several other sources to develop and validate new measures of firm location, size, and economic activity. The project found that the call detail records of cell phone providers can offer a proxy measure for several aspects of private sector activity, including firm size, firm location, and tax revenues. 18 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S BOX 5: ACTIONABLE AND ROBUST RESEARCH — EARLY FINDINGS (WINDOW 5) “The Direct and Spillover Impacts of Business Training and Mentoring of Female Entrepreneurs: Experimental Evidence from Kenya” (TF0A1854; $250,000) is a grant where the task team is looking to enhance the business training treatment through an intense mentoring intervention, and measure its impact over time on business survival, profitability, employment, and growth of female small businesses already exposed to entrepreneurship training, as well as the spillover impacts on neighboring firms. While implementation is only half-way through, early findings note that: a) business training had limited impacts in the short term, but appears to be having larger impacts over time for these women; b) the women seem to be succeeding without taking away sales from other women in the marketplace; and c) mentoring does increase business practices, but doesn’t seem to pass the cost benefit test. The work is tied to an ILO project, and early results were shared in a workshop at the ILO in Geneva, and with stakeholders in Kenya through the ILO. The team is waiting for end results before disseminating broad insights that might otherwise change. “Labor Market Dynamics and Social Protection for Rural to Urban Migrants in China” (TF0A1563; $250,000) is undertaking an evaluation of factors affecting migrant participation in social insurance programs in China’s urban areas, and an examination of the well-being of rural migrant workers relative to their urban counterparts in urban China. A third objective is the contribution of experiments in the field to an ongoing survey of rural migrants in urban China. This will contribute to a public access data set that will facilitate additional research on China’s rural migrants by policy-oriented researchers from around the world. The team completed the 15-city randomized interventions and the final tracking of migrants for the eighth round of the Rural-Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) survey in January 2017. Research papers are underway. While all the work examines gender dimensions, the paper examining long- term care and labor supply places a particular priority on the impacts on labor supply of women and impacts on their time allocation and well-being. Early findings note that: a) the presence of an elderly parent in the household or community has a negative impact on the labor supply of women aged 45-65 in rural areas, and conditional on working, there is a significant decline in the hours worked per week; and b) an adult child participating in migrant work is associated with a 38.4 percent higher likelihood that an elderly parent will be working, with an increase in average hours worked per week of 22 hours. 19 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 PRIORITY AREAS AND EMERGING FINDINGS Although the majority of MDTF activities are ongoing, there are emerging findings in these priority areas: Private Sector Development, Informality, Jobs Quality, Gender, Spatial, ICT, FCV, and Youth. The following section of this report presents information on current thinking, hypotheses on solutions, and examples of activities exploring these areas financed from the MDTF. Private sector development A review of some evidence about policy and programs to promote private investments and job creation points to the importance of adaptability and regulations. Economies that generate the most jobs over time also tend to be those where job creation and job destruction are efficient: lower-productivity jobs disappear, and higher-productivity jobs grow. These five factors appear to be the most important in making sure this happens: 1) Trade openness: global economic integration prevents the emergence of sheltered economies where jobs are marginally protected in downturns but also fail to expand sufficiently in upturns; this is also linked to a diversified economic structure. 2) Access to finance: such access allows firms to invest in response to business cycles. 3) Contested markets: competition contributes to efficient churning of firms. 4) Labor force participation: participation requires integration of women into the labor market. 5) Foreign direct investment (FDI): at least in many developing economies undergoing economic transformation, the evidence suggests that FDI is a critical contributor to catalyzing formal sector jobs growth. But beyond economy-wide policies, targeted interventions to promote entrepreneurship and SME growth seem necessary. Although rigorous evaluations are limited, there is evidence that well designed programs can make a difference in business performance and job creation. The best programs usually combine interventions to improve access to finance; training and advisory 20 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S services; and initiatives to facilitate access to markets or VCs. In addition, the programs need to have proper targeting and well-developed monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems. Key lessons in each of these areas include: • Finance. Clear understanding of the different financing needs of the targeted SMEs in the design of appropriate instruments, such as private equity, commercial loans, supplier credit, and microfinance, is needed. For example, high-growth SME financing requirements are different from SMEs whose objective might solely be income stabilization. In the absence of strong government support to address market failures on the credit markets, other instruments such as matching grants or outright grants can help grow firms that are credit constrained. Moreover, there are positive jobs externalities in reducing under- and unemployment and generating more jobs that SMEs are not factoring in their decision to invest. Grants could be provided to SMEs as a way to internalize these job externalities, and hence, as an incentive to invest in job-rich segments and create more jobs. • Training and advisory services. Training prioritizing new product or new markets business expansion, rather than efficiency, cost reduction, and improvement in business management practices, can lead to better jobs outcomes. These outcomes could include job creation, higher wages, higher retention rates, and thus better jobs. One MDTF project6 evaluates the impact of a business training and mentorship program, directed toward women-led small businesses in Kenya, on business survival, profitability, employment, and growth. The project assessed both the direct impact on the participants of entrepreneurship training and the indirect, spillover effect on neighboring firms. Preliminary results have suggested an increase of firm profit, as well as uptake of improved business practices. • Monitoring and evaluation. A well-developed M&E program needs to be incorporated to measure employment effects, not only to provide feedback to improve the design of interventions, but also to contribute to the broader public good by ensuring that lessons are clear, transparent, and replicable. • Targeting. Firm-level interventions are cost-effective, if they are provided to SMEs that can grow. To better assure this, the first stage of an intervention should have a clear selection process — such as business plan competitions, referrals, or an online and time-consuming process to apply — to screen out low performers or screen in high performers. The evaluation of the YouWin! Program in Nigeria indicates that the program managed to screen in high-growth SMEs that have sustained jobs in the long term (between four or five created per SME after three years). An MDTF-financed entrepreneurship pilot targeted at Syrian refugees is taking this kind of profiling approach in its design.7 The objective of the project is to design, implement, and rigorously evaluate the impact of an entrepreneurship program to promote entrepreneurship among Jordanians, and to increase refugees’ contribution to the host economy. The intervention consists of a seed funding plan; it will encourage social entrepreneurs to propose service projects which the refugee community will vote on, and the winning social and community projects will be financed. 6 “The Direct and Spillover Impacts of Business Training and Mentoring of Female Entrepreneurs: Experimental Evidence from Kenya” (TF0A1854) 7 “Entrepreneurship Pilot to Promote Economic Opportunities for Jordanians and Syrians” (TF0A2900) 21 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 A combined intervention approach is also reflected in the MDTF portfolio to facilitate SMEs. The Georgia National Innovation Ecosystem (GENIE) Broadband for Development program, for instance, is an MDTF-funded randomized control trial (RCT) on a broader WBG lending project: the Georgia National Innovation Ecosystem project. The project to be evaluated aims to enhance ICT adoption and create jobs among 3,000 SMEs, through a combined intervention of providing an information technology (IT) voucher to firms to cover fixed costs associated with subscription and IT upgrade, and training on e-commerce development to supplement potential lack of skills. Informality and jobs quality Informal work is ubiquitous in the developing world, takes diverse forms, and requires different policy approaches. Informal work tends to have low productivity, but some informal jobs are better than others. High rates of informality are a drag on efficiency due to low productivity, low incomes, low investment, limited skill accumulation, and low fiscal revenues. They undermine governance and trust in institutions and have significant welfare implications such as low living standards, vulnerability to shocks, and lack of agency or voice. There are, nonetheless, interventions that have the potential to address some dimensions of informality through distinct channels: reducing the incentives to work informally, increasing the productivity and quality of informal jobs, and expanding access to social insurance programs.8 For incentives, better business regulations and labor policies can reduce the cost of formality. Many informal firms remain informal not as a result of a strategic decision to evade regulations but because their level of productivity is too low to afford them. Simplifying registration and reporting procedures, lowering corporate taxes, ensuring a lower tax wedge, and having more flexible labor regulations can help. Regarding the latter, an option worth considering is the possibility of temporary special regimes where, for instance, low-productivity firms are exempted from social security contributions. From the point of view of workers, two important policies include linking social security contributions to benefi ts, eliminating implicit taxes and subsidies; and integrating non-contributory insurance programs with contributory programs. Social pensions and non-contributory health insurance act as a tax on formal work. Finally, it is important to increase the benefits of formality, for instance, by improving governance and public support services to SMEs. But this remains an area where evidence is limited.9 For productivity, there is evidence that interventions that link small producers — farmers or own-account workers — to markets and VCs can make a difference.10 First, the lack of information, for instance, on prices for smallholders prevents small producers from participating and evidence suggests that access to mobile phones increases the probability that small farmers trade. Second, Atkin, Khandelwal, and Osman (2016) in Egypt assessed a specific intervention whose objective was to generate a demand for small rug producers by linking them to foreign buyers through capacity building and quality checks. Rug producers reported a 16 to 26 percent increase in their profits and a significant increase in their productivity. Third, a value approach may bring larger impacts by looking not only at one market but also at a series of markets that are connected 8 “Framework for Informality” developed under “Strategic Directions in Jobs” (TF0A1622). Forthcoming. 9 “Cost Benefi t Analysis of Jobs in World Bank Projects: Social Rate of Return.” Jobs Group. Forthcoming. 10 “Jobs in Value Chains Survey Design and Implementation Methodology, 2016-2017.” Jobs Group. Forthcoming 22 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S to each other. For instance, developing the leather industry in Ethiopia is not limited to the 10,000 formal jobs in the footwear and leather processing manufacturers, but the VC also consists of hide and skin collectors and cattle farmers, thereby adding about 15 million jobs. In a VC approach, more jobs and better jobs could be generated, conditional upon various requirements: identification of the job-rich VCs, identification of the binding constraints that prevent the VC from growing, and coordinated actions to address these constraints. Finally, it is possible to expand the coverage of social insurance programs to the informal sector.11 This can be done by delinking access from the labor contract. Essentially, all workers, regardless of where they work, need to have access to the same type of benefits and eligibility conditions. Explicit, integrated redistributive arrangements (not parallel contributory systems) financed from general revenues can then be set up to complement the contributions, or top up the benefits, of low-income workers and the poor.12 Advances in technology can spur the enrollment of informal workers. New technologies can allow low-income countries to leapfrog traditional identification systems, which are crucial for the expansion of social insurance systems, as Bangladesh, Kenya, and Guinea are doing by developing digital identification systems. However, even if digital technologies allow the creation of an account for every individual, people will not necessarily have the incentives to use them. Therefore, it is important to put in place the right incentives, both monetary and non- monetary, to which informal workers may contribute. Gender The Gender and Jobs agenda13 purposely prioritizes three strategic themes: job segregation, labor market participation, and entrepreneurship. Across these themes, women’s outcomes are underlined by a range of shared gender-differentiated and gender-neutral constraints with differential gender-impacts: insufficient or inadequate skills; lack of capital; low ownership or control of assets; restricted access to credit and financial services capital; limited access to ICTs and other technology; limited access to networks and information; limited mobility and safe transport; macro, legal, and regulatory environment; demographic conditions; and societal restrictions, norms, and expectations. The interventions with the most promising results for women for job access, job quality, and earnings have two features in common: they acknowledge the constraints women face not only in the labor market, but also beyond, in the domestic sphere; and they relieve multiple constraints simultaneously. While occupational segregation can be attributed to a variety of constraints faced by women, from skills to capital to domestic responsibilities, information and social norms are the most salient. Several programs have been effective at reducing occupational segregation by providing information on earnings and employment opportunities directly, or improving access to information by creating networks and role models. In India, recruitment services to help young women enter the business process outsourcing sector led to gains in employment, as well as increased enrollment in post-school training courses and increases in girls’ aspirations. Also in India, exposure to local female leadership and “edu-tainment” interventions improved girls’ aspirations and parents’ aspirations for their daughters. 11 “Solutions Note: Extending Social Insurance to Informal Workers.” Jobs Group. Forthcoming. 12 “Extending Social Insurance to Informal Workers.” Jobs Group. Forthcoming. 13 Annex A provides a sampling of MDTF activities with a priority on gender. 23 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 Traditional programs have not been enough: they prioritize improving women’s skills and their access to training in an effort to increase labor market participation. The consensus is that other constraints may need to be targeted at the same time to increase the returns to women’s skills and that these interventions should be better prioritized. Skills training programs would be expected to be more effective if they were complemented with information or mentorship interventions that would guide women’s choices of adequate job-relevant skills; or with stipends that would allow women to access higher-quality training. Similarly, skills training interventions would be more successful if located in areas where a formal labor market is developed. For instance, in Liberia, a program increased employment by 47 percent and earnings by about 80 percent by providing skills training to young women along with stipends for attendance, free child care, small mentorship groups, and savings accounts. Female labor force participation can also be improved by reducing temporary and permanent dropout from the labor market at the age of childbearing. Support for child care programs, regulatory changes, employer sensitization, and changes in social norms are central this effort. In Mozambique, an intervention relieved caregivers of 15 hours of child care per week and yielded a 26 percent increase in labor force participation. For entrepreneurs, the provision of both business training and capital can be particularly effective at increasing the likelihood of entering a profitable sector, starting a business, and running it sustainably. Women’s access to capital is often limited due to lower earnings, lower access to loans, and lower decision-making power over the use of household assets and labor. This can inhibit women’s ability to enter profitable sectors. In Uganda, youth formed groups and applied for grants to obtain training and start a skilled trade, and women’s incomes grew by 84 percent, compared to 31 percent for men. Many entrepreneurs also confine their business (suppliers and consumers) to a smaller geographic area due to mobility restrictions or smaller networks. The provision of safe transport options and the facilitation of network building may be particularly important to them. 24 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S Spatial As countries develop, they also urbanize with people, and jobs rearrange across space. Firms usually establish where economic density and agglomeration economies are higher, and the poor traditionally concentrate in rural areas, leading to spatial mismatches. Such mismatches between the location of jobs and workers may also emerge within cities, when workers are concentrated in areas far removed from jobs opportunities, resulting in costly commuting and urban congestion, the so-called spatial mismatch. At the same time, the location of workers and firms, for example, in cities or in towns,14 can respond to public policy such as the location of local and connective infrastructure, the nature of local governance, and the intergovernmental fiscal arrangements, or the introduction of space-specific interventions. For job generation, economic density and the resulting economies of agglomeration would favor the development of large urban centers. Yet, 80 percent of the poor are rural, living closer to secondary towns than large cities. Consequently, off-farm jobs in towns are likely more accessible for the poor. Migration costs for transport, settlement, and jobs search are lower, there is less uncertainty, and return migration—virtually the only safety net available—is easier. Evidence from rural Kagera, Tanzania, shows that more than twice as many rural people moved to secondary towns than to Tanzania’s cities, contributing much more to poverty reduction, as a result. This is despite the fact that they could earn on average only two times more in the towns, compared to three times as much in the cities.15 A review of the limited incipient evidence from other countries also suggests that growth of rural towns is more poverty-reducing than growth in the cities.16 These results could conceptually be understood as the empirical resolution of the interplay between differential rural-urban wage gaps between towns and cities (larger for cities than for towns) and differential migration costs (smaller for towns than for cities).17 Activities in Tanzania and Haiti,18 where analysis is being carried out to better understand the nature of spatial mismatches, show the importance of urbanization and industrial diversification. Preliminary results show that urbanization, industrial diversification, and specialization in services —and to a lesser extent, manufacturing—are the chief determinants of firm location. Competition is even more important than the size of firms. While the local presence of a secondary school is important, even more important is the density of roads. These results suggest that WBG operations could prioritize fostering firm competition. For larger urban regions, they could promote an industrial policy mix that favors diversification by fostering new firms in new sectors regardless of firm size. For smaller towns and rural areas, they could develop policies aiming at favoring specialization in 14 The World Bank and Cornell University organized a conference, funded under the MDTF, which featured 20 papers on this agenda [http://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2016/05/12/secondary-towns-jobs-and-poverty-reduction- refocusing-the-urbanization-agenda], and the World Development Journal has accepted to publish the symposium based on the conference papers. 15 Case study evidence from rural Kagera, Tanzania, shows, for example, that while migrants to Tanzania’s large cities tripled their incomes, compared to a doubling among the migrants to towns, town migrants far outnumbered city migrants. They contributed about twice as much to Kagera’s economic growth and poverty reduction in Kagera. Christiaensen, Luc, Joachim De Weerdt, and Ravi Kanbur, 2017. “What Contributes More to Poverty Reduction: Migration to Cities, Migration to Towns, or Migration to Other Rural Areas?” 16 Christiaensen, Luc and Ravi Kanbur, 2017. “Secondary Towns and Poverty Reduction — Refocusing the Urbanization Agenda.” Annual Review of Resource Economics, Vol 9. Forthcoming. 17 Christiaensen, Luc, Joachim De Weerdt, and Ravi Kanbur, 2017. “Where to Create Jobs to Reduce Poverty: Cities or Towns?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. Forthcoming. 18 “Let’s Work Tanzania” (TF0A0606) and “Access to Jobs in Large Urban Areas in Haiti” (TF0A02893) 25 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 certain activities. They could also continue to invest in skills in each region with the understanding that these need to be coupled with a business environment conducive to business creation and transport infrastructure to access domestic and international markets. ICT Digital technologies (robotics, ICT, artificial intelligence) will transform the world of work. They bring opportunities for growth and prosperity by improving labor productivity, lowering transaction costs, and reducing barriers to market entry. This can in turn accelerate innovation, inducing a virtuous circle of growth and productivity gains. Richer countries, and the better skilled and better connected within countries, stand to benefit most, while developing countries often lack access to technology, skills, or an enabling environment to benefit from these technologies. Some workers will lose their jobs to automation and new technologies; and there is a fundamental danger that inequality will deepen, across and within countries, undermining the prospect of globally shared prosperity itself.19 Developing countries will therefore need to vigorously identify policies and programs to accelerate the rate of technology adoption. Part of the agenda is to expand access to ICTs, particularly in rural areas and among the poor. For this, investing early on in literacy and numeracy, and developing short programs that upgrade digital skills will also be critical.20 A related part is to invest in skills and create an enabling business environment to take maximum advantage of the opportunities technology offers. Developing countries also need to modernize active labor market programs to reconnect workers who lose their jobs to new jobs. Displaced workers may find it difficult to find a new job if they lack the skills that complement new technologies. There is evidence that the process of reintegration after a given industry disappears due to technical change, or off-shoring can take several years in the absence of government support.21 An important policy response is to improve skills development programs, relying on private providers of training that are paid by performance and thus have the incentives to respond to the needs of employers and job seekers.22 Digital technologies can also help improve the design of labor market policies, by allowing access to better and more timely data on labor market demand and supply. For instance, data from an online job-matching platform in India can be used in a context where official statistics are not regularly updated. In particular, the analysis shows that big data can help improve labor market monitoring, assess the demand for workforce skills, improve skills matching, and predict skills demand.23 19 “Technology and Jobs in the Developing World.” Jobs Group. Forthcoming. 20 “Rapid Skills Training for Youth Employment” (TF0A0831) is currently being implemented in Lebanon, Colombia, and Kenya, and aims to identify key success practices of rapid digital skills programs (bootcamps) that result in increased employability and employment. 21 David, H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. “The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States.” The American Economic Review 103.6 (2013): 2121-2168. 22 “Linking Vulnerable Youth with Digital Employment Opportunities” (TF0A0786) seeks to train up to 1,200-1,500 youth in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan, and to provide post-training support and guidance, so that trainees can access online work income generating opportunities. 23 “Labor Market Big Data Analysis for Skills Forecast and Improved Matching” (TF0A0791) 26 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S FCV Jobs are crucial in FCV situations, given their contribution to poverty reduction, productivity, and economic growth, and their effect on social cohesion and reduction of the risk of violence. The need for progress on jobs is particularly pronounced given that poverty is increasingly concentrated in FCV situations and given the enormous strain youth demographics impose on economies such as Afghanistan or South Sudan, with projected annual increases in the labor force of 500,000 and 220,000, respectively, through 2020. At the same time, the jobs environment is particularly challenging, with high political, economic, and social risks; weak institutional capacity; a difficult political economy; and significant constraints on financial resources. The MDTF-funded Integrated Framework for Jobs in Fragile and Conflict Situations (TF0A1622) identifies four priorities for more effective support to jobs in FCV situations: 1) An integrated approach that keeps different economic actors in mind. For instance, after conflict, the need to support firms and enable them to start up again goes hand in hand with the need to revive demand for goods and services. 2) An emphasis on the jobs impact of macro-fiscal policy, regulation, and infrastructure investment. 3) The design of short-term recovery support with an eye on longer-term goals. For instance, support to restarting agriculture production can go hand in hand with activities to foster the ability of farmers to connect to the market. 4) More support and earlier engagement to re-establish domestic markets. For instance, timely assistance can help domestic firms seize opportunities that arise from reconstruction needs. Current activities underway, financed by the MDTF, address a range of crucial knowledge gaps: Building from short-term jobs support toward lasting impacts. A number of incipient MDTF-funded IEs search for ways to generate lasting impacts for participants in short- term jobs support programs in FCV situations. For instance, they ask whether providing an additional cash grant to participants in public works improves longer-term employment outcomes;24 whether training and capital injections are complementary in promoting jobs;25 and whether soft skills training can help raise the effectiveness of vocational and technical training.26 Working with the private sector to deliver better jobs results. MDTF-supported projects are exploring ways to bridge the divide between promoting jobs by supporting workers or by supporting firms in FCV situations. A project in the Solomon Islands provides soft skills and financial literacy training to workers at SolTuna,27 one of the country’s largest private sector employers, reducing problematic rates of absenteeism and improving workers’ ability to benefit from attendance incentive payments. In the West Bank and Gaza, an MDTF grant will help measure the jobs impacts of the innovative Finance for Jobs project that seeks 24 “Deepening the Jobs Impact of the Public Works Programs through Capital Injection and Social Network Stimulation: A Randomized Control Trial in Eastern DRC” (TF0A2965); and “Public Works and Welfare: Randomized Control Trials in Tunisia and Comoros” (TF0A0999) 25 “Liberia Youth Opportunities IE” (TF0A2864) 26 “Soft Skills, Personality Traits, and Jobs in FCV” (in progress in Honduras, planned for DRC; TF0A0989) 27 “Training Women in SolTuna” (TF0A0962) 27 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 to close the skills gap by enlisting private sector expertise in providing training through a results-based financing mechanism.28 An incipient project in Jordan 29 proposes to encourage peer learning between Jordanian and Syrian refugee entrepreneurs to improve business outcomes and job opportunities. Using new data to understand jobs challenges in FCV situations. An initiative in Afghanistan uses cell phone call data from over 2,000 firms to develop new measures of firm location, size, and economic activity, and validate their use to track firm performance in a data-poor environment.30 Using geocoded data on violent events, it also documents how firms reduce their activities in insecure areas. In Mali and Niger,31 the MDTF has funded a survey to understand the needs of informal firms, where the overwhelming majority of non-agriculture jobs are created. In one finding, the survey reveals that the need to rely on savings poses a significant barrier to starting even simple informal activities, and that jobs in informal businesses usually go to those connected to the owners. This observation is important in understanding the situation of refugees and internally displaced persons in the region, as well as of migrants looking to traverse Mali and Niger. Those without personal connections or savings will face significant obstacles in making a living — a vulnerability that extremist organizations are reportedly seeking to exploit. Youth Over the next 15 years, a billion young people will enter the labor market with only 40 percent expected to be able to find jobs. The global economy needs to create 600 million jobs over the next 10 years just to keep employment rates constant. Youth unemployment rates are high, with inactivity and idleness even higher, and many of those who are employed are in low-quality jobs either as self-employed, or as informal sector wage employees without social insurance. The lack of good-quality work experience today undermines future job prospects, so it also lowers future growth potential. If youth feel alienated, disappointed, and frustrated, their situation could also contribute to social unrest and violence. In this context, jobs prospects for youth have become a critical concern for policy makers worldwide. The reviews of youth employment programs implemented to date show disappointing results. Most programs include training, job counseling, job search assistance, and wage subsidies. But only a third of the evaluated programs to date have had statistically significant improvements on employment or earnings. In addition, among programs that have had an impact, effects are modest. The results of the analysis suggest that successful programs need to offer a comprehensive set of services that can be adapted to respond to the constraints facing different beneficiaries;32 have a 28 “Finance for Jobs in Palestine: Jobs Measurement and Methodologies” (TF0A2341) 29 “Entrepreneurship Pilot to Promote Economic Opportunities for Jordanians and Syrians” (TF0A2900) 30 “Afghanistan: Confl ict and Private Sector” (TF0A2657) 31 “The Informal Sector in the Sahel” (TF0A1069) 32 “Soft Skills, Personality Traits, and Jobs in FCV” (TF0A0989) examines the role of soft skills and personality traits as complements to vocational and technical training in improving labor market and related life-outcomes for at-risk youth. 28 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S proper profiling system to help identify these constraints;33 deliver services through providers that are paid based on results; and have a proper M&E system.34 In sum, countries need substantial improvements in the design of these programs. Going forward, addressing the youth jobs challenge will require more comprehensive and integrated approaches. This implies linking supply side interventions targeting youth to demand side interventions. The latter target firms to expand production, spur growth, create jobs, and improve the quality of current jobs. As discussed previously, there are different models, including entrepreneurship programs, SME support, or VCs development.35 The MDTF has financed a grant for S4YE to assess the Impact Portfolio. S4YE has selected 19 youth employment programs implemented by a range of partners like International Youth Foundation, Technoserve, Microsoft, ILO, McKinsey, the WBG, and others. These projects are S4YE’s learning laboratory where they curate innovative design practices, and promote practitioner level learning and capacity building. This grant-financed activity will produce a report in June 2017. 33 “Youth Entrepreneurship and Spatial Match in Urban Labor Markets in Ethiopia” (TF0A2670) will evaluate the fi rst phase of Ethiopia’s pioneering urban safety net project to generate knowledge on (a) the spatial integration of large urban labor markets; (b) targeting of youth entrepreneurship programs; and (c) alternatives to improve matching in wage employment. 34 IZA Discussion Paper No. 10263. “Do Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes? A Systematic Review” 35 “Strengthening Micro-Entrepreneurship for Disadvantaged Youth in the Informal Sector” (TF0A0858) where young men and women between the ages of 18 and 29 in the project areas are provided access to micro-entrepreneurship development services. The IE will generate new evidence on targeted entrepreneurship training for disadvantaged youth on the development of entrepreneurial skills and attitudes; the probability to start and expand a business; and income generation and job creation. 29 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 IMPACT EVALUATIONS: GENERATING EVIDENCE OF WHAT WORKS There is still limited knowledge about the effects of many programs and policies on jobs, and a need to test hypotheses for influencing change. The MDTF carries out research and IEs on specific jobs challenges to help inform job strategies, policies, and programs. These IEs estimate the causal effect of an operation or a pilot on the outcome of interest. They identify the policy challenge, formulate the hypothesis to be tested or research question, and design a robust evaluation methodology to test the hypothesis. A list of the hypotheses tested by these IEs is in Annex D. More than a quarter of the MDTF grants provide new evidence through IEs in key themes. A total of 25 of all the 89 activities (28 percent) in the MDTF portfolio undertake rigorous IEs, mainly through RCTs. This category encompasses medium and larger grants, amounting to $14.5 million. Of these IEs, the majority (14) were undertaken as part of the Second Call for Proposals which sought to optimize and deepen the jobs impact of existing projects and designs, design innovative pilot interventions, and evaluate the effects of these.36 Such innovation was encouraged in four themes with gender and fragility as cross-cutting concerns: 1) Reducing inequality in market access and raising productivity of farmers and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) through VC development and private sector development. 2) Overcoming spatial mismatch for inclusive employment. 3) Harnessing ICT to expand job opportunities. 4) Promoting productive entrepreneurship among youth. The number of IEs by theme is presented in Figure 9. FIGURE 9 Topic priority in impact evaluations 30 26 25 Number of Impact Evaluations 20 15 15 13 12 10 10 10 9 6 5 0 Total IEs Gender FCV Informality Spatial ICT Youth Private Sector Development Source: Jobs Multi Donor Trust Fund Portfolio. Estimates are based on grants funded at end of January 2017 36 IEs are also undertaken for two Let’s Work Pilots (Mozambique and Tanzania); under the research window (two IEs); and under the First Call for Proposals (seven), prioritizing youth employment, private sector development, and gender. 30 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S The IE portfolio prioritizes testing interventions related to MSMEs and entrepreneurship, and wage subsidies (Figure 12). The IE proposals were selected based on operational demand for the kind of knowledge they would test, and cluster around these two types of sectoral interventions (see Figure 10). Other types of interventions include pilots under ICT, access to finance, public employment services, public works, and skills and training.37 The priority is in line with the IDA-18 discussions where the WBG was urged “to systematically carry out impact analyses of Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) and entrepreneurship programs across IDA countries to assess their overall impacts and differentiated outcomes for women and youth, and […] develop operational guidelines to inform future operations.” FIGURE 10 Number and value of key sectoral interventions (in million dollars) Other Interventions MSME/ (11 projects) Entrepreneurship (8 projects) $4.5 $7.6 $2.4 MSME/Entrepreneurship Wage Subsidies Wage Subsidies (6 projects) Other Interventions Source: Analysis of MDTF grants using Jobs Conceptual Framework The IEs are designed to yield information on multiple dimensions. Of the $14.5 million allocated to IEs, equal shares are associated with outcomes addressing job creation and job quality: $10.98 million (76 percent) and $10.92 million (75 percent) respectively. Grant allocations addressing job access amount to $7.2 million (50 percent).38 These various activities are encouraging innovation, piloting tools, and generating evidence that are relevant to a range of WBG, donor, and country operations, and can help fine-tune the design of future jobs lending operations. For example, in Tajikistan the evaluation is testing the hypothesis that performance-based contracts for business advisory services providers can improve jobs outcomes for SMEs accessing a line of credit vis-à-vis standard contracts. This approach is a key element of the new generation of lending operations that combine labor demand and supply side.39 37 Interventions classifi ed using the Jobs Conceptual Framework. The IEs do not assess macro and regulatory poli- cies, as these are more diffi cult to assess through RCTs. 38 As projects address multiple outcomes, there is double counting in the estimated values. 39 Annex D gives an overview of sample hypotheses and priorities of the current IE portfolio related to these outcomes. 31 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 FIGURE 11 Progress of impact evaluations (IEs) ROUND 1 IEs Initial Stage Program Methodology Recruit Field Coordinators ROUND 2 IEs Collect Baseline Data Launch Pilot Activities These IEs are progressing as scheduled, and are linked to operations or pilots under implementation that have a longer duration, on average, than smaller research grants. Most  of the evaluations from Round 1, with a few exceptions, have progressed beyond the initial stage, having developed the methodology for the program, and undertaken baseline data collections. For example, the regional “Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training for Youth Employment” (TF0A0831) has undertaken qualitative studies for the pilots in Nairobi and Beirut, with an RCT in Medellin; final data collection is under way for these three pilots. For the Morocco IE on “Strengthening Micro-Entrepreneurship for Disadvantaged Youth in the Informal Sector” (TF0A0858), the final baseline report is available. Some novel features of the baseline survey allow for a better understanding of participants’ aspirations and their expectations regarding the effect of the training. Several of the IEs from Round 2 have progressed beyond baseline data collection, and are in the process of recruiting field coordinators and launching the pilot activities (including TF0A2832; TF0A2900; and TF0A2983) (see Figure 11). Lessons from completed evaluations point to possible broad use for this kind of evidence. The Côte d’Ivoire apprenticeship IE (TF0A0731) informed the country jobs diagnostic report, and the analysis was included as part of the jobs agenda report. Census firm data from the national statistical agency was collected and analyzed, with additional work to improve data to better capture types of employment and productivity patterns in agriculture. This led to a survey module which was included in the 2016 employment survey. 32 Outcomes* Intermediate Outcomes Job Creation Job Quality Job Access Access to Firm Job Working Access and / working Human New Entrepreneurs Worker Earnings/ Labor force Working of performance/ creation (by conditions Opportunity challenges Interventions * FIGURE 12 of product Capital enterprises /self-employed productivity livelihoods participation labor market Response to country jobs investment employers) and benefi ts for Jobs markets Public administration and governance Taxation / Fiscal Policy Trade & Investment policies Policy Macro and regulatory Business regulations Access to Finance MSME/ Jobs MDTF impact evaluations evidence map Entrepreneurship Transport/ Logistics ICT Energy/ Mining Sectoral and Regional policies Irrigation/water Spatial development Labor Regulations Public employment services Wage subsidies Public works Labor policies Livelihoods /CDD Skills and training 33 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S Key: Color coding (number of projects) 1 2 3 4 5+ J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 Let’s Work Pillar 1: Country Pilots While the MDTF finances all pillars of Let’s Work, the largest allocation is for the seven country pilots in Zambia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Bangladesh, Tunisia, Paraguay, and the Western Balkans. The pilots follow a similar path of implementation. At the start of the program, the pilot conducts a comprehensive jobs diagnostic, including VC analysis, to provide groundwork for country jobs strategies and operations. Here are some highlights: Jobs diagnostics use macro, household, and firm data to analyze both the supply and demand sides of the labor market. The findings are used to identify the main challenges facing countries for jobs. For instance, the Bangladesh Jobs Diagnostic showed that the country is undergoing massive structural transformation which is delivering large-scale job creation. Non-agricultural employment grew by close to 4 percent a year and wage employment by more than 5 percent. Young, urban women are the biggest beneficiaries, as the apparel sector generated more than three million jobs over the past decade. Yet, job quality overall remains very low. Close to 80 percent of all workers are self-employed, day laborers, or household workers, and the vast majority of jobs are concentrated in low-growth, low-productivity microenterprises which account for 98 percent of all firms. Maintaining the pace of job creation needed to absorb the growing labor force, bring more women into the labor market, and support higher earnings requires progress on three fundamental transformation priorities: 1) diversification of the economy and of exports, by extending the success of apparel to other parts of the manufacturing economy, while expanding high-productivity services; 2) improving the quality of urbanization by addressing massive infrastructure constraints and addressing the barriers to improved productivity of secondary cities; and 3) expanding formalization in both the urban and rural economies while also targeting improvements in job quality in the informal sector. The Bangladesh team is now working on developing a jobs strategy with the ILO that aims to support the government’s Five-Year Plan. Another component of Let’s Work includes carrying out VC analysis to better understand the dynamics in a sector or chain and to estimate the impact of specific investments and interventions on job creation. For example, in North Lebanon, Let’s Work evaluated a potato VC, and results indicated that while the agricultural sector provides significant employment, most of it comes in the form of low-skilled, seasonal labor with limited opportunities, in both scale and scope, for Lebanese workers. However, the development of the downstream processing sector changes the story significantly. Not only would downstream processing provide substantial opportunities for direct higher-skilled permanent jobs, but it would also open up the possibility to drive job creation and improve competitiveness and earnings in the farming sector. Delivering on this potential requires policy interventions at a number of levels across the chain. High-priority interventions include addressing electricity shortages that undermine the competitiveness of processing; investing in post- harvest facilities and quality systems; increasing access to finance for investment in higher-quality inputs; and investing in technical and vocational education to build skills for agro-processing. The findings from the jobs diagnostics and VC analysis feed into building multisector jobs strategies for each country; these strategies prioritize creating inclusive and productive jobs. It is commonly believed that when economies grow, jobs are created, but these jobs are not necessarily the right jobs. The key to development, therefore, is to create the right type of productive jobs that reduce youth unemployment, increase female participation in the labor market, integrate 34 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S those living in conflict-affected areas, and ultimately, reduce income inequality and poverty. For instance, the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic shows that agro-processing firms in Zambia are more spatially diffused than other manufacturing firms and are located in areas of high poverty density around the main cities of Copperbelt, Lusaka, and the Southern Provinces. Hence, integrating smallholders into the supply chains of leading firms in these areas could — in principle — increase rural incomes. The findings also showed that there is potential because formal sector firms operate in broadly the same product markets as self-employed Zambian farmers: grain, oil seeds, and livestock. Too many of the jobs created in Zambia have been agricultural, rural, and in the informal sectors. Youth, in particular, are becoming less likely to be employed. New jobs are needed for young people, in towns and cities, out of agriculture, and into higher-productivity occupations. The Let’s Work Zambia Jobs Action Plan and Strategy identifies a set of recommendations that will help prioritize actions for Zambia’s jobs agenda. The Action Plan proposes training to promote inclusion of smallholders, particularly women and youth, via aggregator models to accelerate access to jobs and productivity. It also promotes training in the construction sector for youth, as it is a labor-intensive sector, with high job multiplier effects, and a shortage of skilled labor. The training will prioritize “green” buildings, which is in line with urbanization. The Action Plan highlights expanding secondary and tertiary schooling for rural youth, especially girls, so that they can also benefit from the economic transformation underway and access good jobs. The Action Plan is being finalized; however, the Government of Zambia has asked for further collaboration to form and implement the country’s jobs strategy, with a particular priority on youth. Let’s Work finances innovative and cross-sectoral private-sector led pilots that can be scaled up to the national level, if successful. In Mozambique, where there is a larger Let’s Work project, one challenge in the country’s agricultural sector is to intensify linkages between large firms and SMEs, which have access to markets, technology, and finance, and smallholder farmers, which have under-utilized land and labor (see Box 6). This can be done using “aggregator systems” 35 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 that link farmers into profitable markets as “out-growers” through contracts with buyers. Many development agencies agree on the benefits of this approach, and a significant number of private companies have built the models on their own. However, not enough is known about what works best in the design and implementation of out-grower systems or their impact on job creation. The Mozambique pilot program will support the expansion of around eight different aggregators. The goal is to incorporate around 5,000 new out-growers in total across a variety of regions and crops. Aggregators will receive a small per capita subsidy to help cover the cost of the expansion. The team is also supporting small-scale evaluations of pilot projects in construction and female and youth inclusion that other Let’s Work partners or private companies are implementing. In Bangladesh, Let’s Work has launched pilots in three sectors: ready-made garments, leather, and light engineering. The activities carried out under the sector analytics and pilots have contributed directly to the design of WBG lending operations. The Bangladesh “Export Competitiveness for Jobs” ($100 million) operation was approved by the WBG Board on June 1, 2017. Specifically, the work on environmental, social, and quality (ESQ) compliance in the leather sector formed the basis for the design of a $20 million component that will support export-oriented firms to upgrade their ESQ compliance to meet international standards thereby supporting market access (see Box 6). The work on technology centers supports a $35 million component which will develop a network of four technology and training centers in the light engineering, electrical, plastics, and leather sectors. In Zambia, an agribusiness and trade project that aims to increase market linkages and firm growth in agribusiness ($40 million) is ongoing. In Tunisia, “Youth Economic Inclusion” ($60 million) is scheduled for WBG Board approval in September 2017. The project aims to improve economic opportunities of targeted vulnerable youth and businesses in selected governorates of Tunisia through an integrated approach that includes increasing earnings, improving access to wage or self-employment, and improving sales for beneficiary firms. BOX 6: COORDINATION: A MAINSTAY OF LET’S WORK Coordination with Let’s Work partners, donors, government, and the private sector is the core of Let’s Work Program. Here are two examples: • In Bangladesh, the jobs diagnostic was launched in early 2016 following a collaboration agreement with the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. The arrangement also includes support for capacity building of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics staff to carry out a jobs diagnostic. The jobs strategy will be developed with the ILO and aims to support the government’s Five-Year Plan. • In Mozambique, the team has consistently coordinated with the Government of Mozambique to confirm its buy-in. The Finance Ministry has endorsed the main recommendations of the draft jobs strategy as being consistent with Mozambique’s National Development Strategy and encouraged the team to press ahead with the identification of concrete actions at the sector level. The team also coordinates with Let’s Work partners in Mozambique, including IFC, DFID, African Development Bank (AfDB), ILO, Norfund, and International Youth Foundation (IYF). A stocktaking exercise undertaken this year highlighted the range of complementary programs already underway in Mozambique that are relevant to the Let’s Work agenda. 36 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S Let’s Work Pillar 2: Tools and Methodologies Development finance institutions support job creation through research, investments, and technical assistance. It has become increasingly important for policy makers and development practitioners to measure the number and quality of jobs being created by interventions. This includes measuring not only direct jobs but also the indirect and induced jobs that were generated. Projects in Let’s Work Pillar 2 have made progress in defining the measurement agenda so that development finance institution can improve accountability to stakeholders by measuring jobs not only in a consistent and more robust way, but also along more nuanced dimensions: number of jobs gained, the quality of those jobs, and who gets those jobs (inclusiveness). The program is piloting three methods to measure the impact of interventions on jobs: Value Chains, Tracers, and Macro Models. Value Chains The VC method uses surveys to identify and understand patterns of job creation along a VC at the sector and firm level. The objective of this tool is to understand VC dynamics to estimate the impact of investments and interventions on the level, quality, and inclusiveness of jobs — at the level of the sector or in specific firms in the VC. The survey is being used to measure the number of jobs available in a given VC, where they are located, and the extent and nature of relationships among actors in the chain. The tool can be used prior to an intervention to forecast potential jobs impacts as well as post intervention to analyze the number and nature of jobs resulting created from investments. Based on the two pilot case studies implemented in 2016, and in an effort to standardize approaches across multilateral development banks, a robust implementation methodology and detailed in technical guidelines, training manuals, and protocols for quality control have been developed. Results show that the VC tool allows an emphasis on selected industries and sectors to identify jobs patterns much more specifically than is possible using the broad industry classifications typically relied upon in macro models. It also allows an understanding of how changes in one part of a VC impact jobs across the entire chain. However, the specificities of individual country and VC contexts make it difficult to generalize jobs multipliers beyond the individual case. Pilot cases have also revealed two key factors for successful analysis. First, comprehensive VC mapping and sample selection are critical for capturing all nodes and activities for the product, including informal sector firms, as one of the objectives is to reach vulnerable populations and identify participants that can benefit from linking to the VC. There are various sources for this information and subsequent sampling approaches that vary between regions and sectors. Second, for a more in-depth and nuanced understanding of the dynamics of the VC and for engagement of key stakeholders, it is valuable to carry out semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. Based on this factor, a complementary qualitative tool has been designed to support findings from the quantitative survey by capturing country or “business-environment” specific factors, unique trends within the sector, and key stakeholder inputs. Box 7 illustrates some of the key findings from each of the pilot case studies implemented in 2016. 37 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 BOX 7: BRIEF OVERVIEW OF KEY FINDINGS FROM VC STUDY IN LEBANON AND ZAMBIA Lebanon — potatoes: Figure 13 summarizes some of the key findings from the Value Chain Jobs Estimation analysis of the potato VC in North Lebanon. It indicates that while on-farm activities represent the largest source of jobs in the VC, most of this comes in low-skilled, seasonal labor with limited opportunities, in both scale and scope, for younger Lebanese workers. Instead, on-farm jobs are largely occupied by migrant (and recently, refugee) labor. However, the quality of jobs is much higher in other parts of the VC. Looking at the potential jobs impact of investments, what is clear is that the greatest jobs impact comes through downstream investment in processing where even a relatively small-scale plant would generate substantial employment. Including seasonal jobs, each processing job created would deliver a jobs multiplier of 2.06 in particular through its impact on on-farm jobs. By contrast, investment at the farm level to expand fresh product exports would generate off-farm jobs with a multiplier of 1.39 for permanent jobs and just 1.17 including seasonal jobs. FIGURE 13 Key findings of VC jobs estimation analysis of the potato VC in North Lebanon VC job creation: Jobs in current VC Share of total jobs Share of FTEs permanent (+ seasonal) jobs Export Processing Total FTE Permanent Seasonal High skill Low skill scenario scenario Input 250 126 41% 59% 28% 72% 71 71 suppliers (+104) (+104) Farmers 7,284 2,137 16% 84% 19% 81% 254 206 (+1,367) (+1,051) Traders 1,247 510 31% 69% 16% 84% 30 46 (+75) (+115) Processors 215 132 53% 47% 20% 80% 0 800 (+696) TOTAL 8,996 2,905 355 1,123 (+1,546) (+1,966) Note: Export scenario based on expanding fresh exports by 25,000 tons by capturing half of European Union export quota; processing scenario based on attracting investment in a processing facility with equivalent (25,000 ton) capacity 38 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S Zambia — poultry: Figure 14 summarizes some of the key findings from the Value Chain Jobs Estimation analysis of the poultry VC in Zambia. It indicates that the traditional production model offers more jobs; however, it can be assumed that jobs in the modern production sector are better jobs (that is, with higher incomes) due to the higher labor productivity. The total number of jobs in the broiler VC amounts to over 31,000. The table further shows two jobs scenarios that assume continuous population growth at 3.1 percent and a 25 percent increase in per capita broiler consumption. In scenario 1, market shares remain constant between the traditional and the modern production model, whereas in scenario 2, all additional demand is captured by the modern production model. In scenario 1, the broiler VC has the potential to create an additional 17,000 jobs by 2022 (amounting to a total number of over 48,000 jobs). In scenario  2, almost 9,000 additional jobs are created in the modern production sector, which constitutes fewer jobs than in scenario 1, but arguably better-quality jobs. FIGURE 14 Key findings of VC jobs estimation analysis of the poultry VC in Zambia Value Chain Job Creation Scenarios Total Jobs in Current VC Scenario 2: Scenario 1: Shift to Modern Production Constant Market Shares Model Traditional Modern Traditional Modern Traditional Modern Production Production Production Production Production Production Sector Sector Sector Sector Sector Sector DOC 325 175 503 271 325 449 Feed 8,520 3,496 13,188 5,411 8,520 8,967 Rearing 15,016 1,689 23,304 2,614 15,016 4,333 Processing – 210 – 326 – 540 Distribution 1,750 48 2,716 74 1,750 123 TOTAL 25,611 5,618 39,711 8,696 25,611 14,412 Tracers The tracer method aims to calculate the long-term effects of job creation by evaluating impacts of private sector investments on beneficiaries. For instance, when looking at the number and nature of jobs in a rural village in Uganda before a road investment happens and then again after the road was built, the number and nature of jobs will have changed; such changes are attributed to the road. Tracer studies are designed to track and record or evaluate the effectiveness of interventions for job creation, and create high-quality jobs. The two primary goals of tracer studies are to document changes in employment, wages, or other dimensions related to the quality 39 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 of the job that beneficiaries experience, and to understand if and how the intervention contributed to these observed changes. The projects selected to pilot tracer studies were not designed with an evaluation in mind. Therefore, tracers were difficult to undertake; circumstances became more complicated and less rigorous when the project had already reached completion many years prior. Based on this evidence, tracers are likely used best to measure the jobs impact of investments that are relatively small, targeted, and geographically-confined, as in the case of infrastructure and other investment projects with externalities and most appropriate if the unit of intervention and analysis is individuals or households. Because of these unforeseen circumstances, pilot evaluations using tracer studies have not yet yielded results; however, they have developed a set of questionnaires, training manuals, and other materials. In addition to having sampling and questionnaire design experts on the team the implementation of tracer surveys requires someone familiar with IE design data management to guarantee the quality of the data and well-trained field managers to make sure that the enumerators are well-trained, motivated, and completing the work to the standard required. Macro Models The macro models are simulation models that explore the range of possible outcomes that can result from investments within a sector prior to an intervention. They are ex-ante assessments of direct, indirect, and induced job impact estimates. They can provide a characterization of jobs (by skill, education level, location, or gender, among others) under diverse economic conditions, policy changes, technological change, and external shocks and the ability to simulate the dynamics of job creation over time. Macro model case studies have already provided a critical mass of knowledge in certain areas such as the power and transport sectors (see Box 8). 40 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S For macro studies, the program has identified common themes regarding implementation challenges and lessons learned. Bringing internal and external expertise into sector-focused projects has proven to be a key factor of success; a minimum set of data standards is required; access to local country and technical knowledge, partnerships, and research is critical; and during procurement and implementation, best practices are clear objectives, scope, terms of reference, in-depth inception reports, peer-reviewing processes, and internal debriefing to country or sector management and specialists. Although not adequate to predict the impact of a given investment on jobs, the models offer policy makers a cost-effective way to explore the range of potential jobs outcomes resulting from investments in specific sectors or changes in core macro policies. These models have also helped understand the links between direct, indirect, and induced jobs across different economic sectors. In the majority of cases, the main gains from a given investment come from indirect and induced jobs, which are often not included, for instance, in cost benefit analysis. In conclusion, the MDTF through the Let’s Work Partnership has made strides in the area of measuring the impact of interventions on jobs, but more needs to be done to ease the use and implementation of these tools. The next step is to reduce some of the technical and resource burdens while maintaining rigor as well as to build the technical and implementation capacity of this emerging community of practice. Triangulation—where the three models are used to measure the jobs impact for the same intervention or investment to calibrate the models—has yet to be achieved. Overall, this has been a learning-by-doing exercise, and the lessons learned at each step helped revise, adapt, and refine the tools further. (See Box 8) Ultimately, the goal is to develop a framework that is useful for project teams to estimate and measure the employment impact of their projects with a level of standardization and thoroughness. 41 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 BOX 8: BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF{IFC’S AIRPORT INVESTMENT IN JAMAICA Understanding the economic impact that airport investments have is strategically important in the delivery of IFC’s mandate to further economic development by encouraging the growth of productive private enterprise in member countries. To this end, IFC commissioned a report under Let’s Work to advise how best to accurately measure and track the economic impact of airports; and to evaluate the effect of IFC’s investment in Montego Bay Airport (MBJ) in Jamaica. The project adopted a mixed methods approach. Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modeling was used to quantify the economic impact of the airport’s operations and the impact of tourists’ expenditure in the wider economy. On the other hand, a SAM model’s framework is not suited to understanding wider effects on (non-tourist) international trade via connectivity. These were quantified via a gravity model equation which explains observed changes in bilateral trade based on a set of explanatory variables including gross domestic product (GDP), population, shared language, distance, and, in this instance, air connectivity. Finally, an assessment of the role of IFC’s investments was undertaken on the basis of a qualitative review of evidence collected as part of a desk-based review and work during the field trip. This includes a commentary on how the investments have contributed to current operational performance and analysis of how the operational performance of the airports has evolved since the investments. In addition, an attribution rule was established which related a fraction of the airport’s current economic footprint to IFC’s investment based on the extent to which the investment relieved a binding capacity constraint. In the case that an investment enhances the capacity of an airport, and passenger flow subsequently exceeds this capacity, the associated additional economic activity that results — via operations, tourism and trade — was enabled by the project. Through its operations, MBJ made a total value added contribution of $56.0 million to Jamaica’s GDP in 2015 (0.45 percent of the economy total), sufficient to support over 1,000 jobs (0.10 percent of the economy total). Around three-quarters of the total gross value added the MBJ supported in 2015 was retained by the airport, reflecting its very high profit margin (see Figure 13). FIGURE 13 MBJ’s total economic footprint in 2015 GVA Employment Tax US$ Millions Headcount Jobs US$ Millions Operations 56 1,054 13 Tourism Spending 1,285 132,329 477 Trade 27 2,565 8 Total 1,368 135,948 498 42 E A R LY F I N D I N G S A N D R E S U LT S Each $1 million of revenue generated by MBJ in 2015 supported $0.73 million in gross value added, $0.16 million in labor compensation, and 14 jobs across the economy of Jamaica. In total, the spending of the 1.7 million tourists who used MBJ as a gateway to Jamaica in 2015 sustained $1.3 billion in gross value added (10.4 percent of the economy total) and supported 133,000 jobs (12.2 percent of the economy total). Tourist expenditure-supported activity across Jamaica, most notably in tourist-facing industries such as hotels and restaurants, personal, sporting and recreational service providers, and land and water transport services. The project’s modeling suggests that for each 10 percent increase in connectivity (as measured by non-resident arrivals) in Jamaica, goods exports rise by 2.1 percent and goods imports by 0.8 percent; this reflects how the international flow of people can help to foster business relationships between suppliers, customers, and others. Applying this result to MBJ implies that the increase in connectivity at the airport since the completion of IFC’s investments in 2008 has boosted international goods trade by $118 million (2.1 percent of the economy total). Of the overall boost to trade, exports were found to have increased by $49 million (3.9 percent of the economy total) and imports by $69 million (1.6 percent of the economy total). Intuitively, leisure tourists are less likely to catalyze international trading relationships (compared to those traveling on business) although qualitative evidence gathered during the field trip did attest to known examples of leisure trips that had spurred subsequent trade and investment activity. Therefore, the fact that most non-resident arrivals at MBJ were traveling for leisure rather than business purposes implies that the values in Figure 13 are likely to overstate the airport’s impact in this respect. 43 4 LESSONS TO DATE “The flagship publication of the World Bank Group, ‘Doing Business,’ has been presenting data on labor market regulations for the past decade, but for the first time, it will go beyond the concept of efficiency and labor market flexibility and focus on measuring the quality of employment.” — Measuring Job Quality, Turkey 45 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 4 LESSONS TO DATE The implementation of the first three years of the MDTF has generated important insights that will influence how the WBG supports client countries in addressing some of the most pressing jobs challenges they face. These insights can be grouped around three themes: jobs diagnostics and strategies; effective policies and programs for jobs; and measurement, M&E of lending and investment operations. JOBS DIAGNOSTICS AND STRATEGIES The results of around 23 jobs diagnostics supported, in part by Let’s Work Pillar 1, suggest that although there is a large variation of jobs outcomes and the severity of different problems, common challenges persist. These include high rates of inactivity and, in some cases, unemployment; limited structural transformations that keep a majority of employed workers in informal or low-quality jobs; pervasive inequalities in labor market outcomes by gender, age, and type of household; and persistent gaps in regional development that concentrate investments and job creation in urban centers and narrow transportation corridors.40 These patterns can be observed even in countries that have been able to introduce important structural reforms, for example, Bangladesh and Peru. Going forward, technological change, trade dynamics, demographics (youth bulges in Africa and South Asia, as well as aging populations in Europe and Central Asia), and migration can aggravate current problems. The analytical work also suggests that addressing these challenges requires going beyond policies and programs that aim to promote investments and growth, but treat jobs as a residual. The many Systematic Country Diagnostics already completed bring the problem to light. The standard policy framework still calls for fixing market and institutions to increase investments and improve allocative efficiency, while reducing rigidities in labor markets and building the assets of the poor. But the economic literature suggests that these policies might not be enough under several conditions, including when markets overestimate the opportunity cost of labor as a result of high unemployment or underemployment. Other such conditions are when jobs generate social externalities. These conditions include when women who work invest more in the human capital of their children, or youth who work learn on the job and make other workers more productive; coordination failures among investors and workers (actions which would make all participants better off) do not take place; or learning spillovers occur where private investors cannot capture all the returns on their investment. In these cases, private investments that are good for jobs, particularly jobs for vulnerable workers, might not take place because private rates of return are too low, and the social rates of return can be considerably high. An example is the Tunisia Economic Inclusion 40 “Lessons Learnt from Job Diagnostics.” Jobs Group. Forthcoming as part of IDA18 commitments. 46 LESSONS TO DATE for Youth project, leveraged by Let’s Work Pillar 1, which supports the development of VCs for job creation. The social rate of return is estimated to be twice as high as the private rate of return. As a result, governments and Country Management Units in the WBG recognize the need to prioritize jobs strategies vs. growth strategies.41 Like growth strategies, jobs strategies combine policies and programs at different levels (that is, macro and regulatory policies, labor policies and programs, and regional and sectoral interventions). However, there is an explicit emphasis on specific jobs outcomes: faster net job creation in the formal sector; better quality of jobs in the informal sector; and improved job opportunities for vulnerable workers. Jobs strategies can then not only inform the design of new jobs lending operations but also help coordinate non-jobs-related operations and technical assistance in the country portfolio to exploit synergies and maximize their impact on jobs. Countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyz Republic have developed (or are developing) these strategies and are now setting up mechanisms to monitor their implementation. One important challenge going forward is to improve the availability and quality of data for jobs diagnostics. In many countries, particularly low-income countries, standard household and firm surveys are simply not available or very infrequently available. The available surveys are mainly cross sections (that is, household and enterprises are rarely followed over time), and information about the informal sector or the poor is often lacking. This lack of data constrains the type of analysis that can be conducted within a jobs diagnostic. For instance, analysis to better understand the drivers and constraints affecting female labor force participation or the growth of informal SMEs is generally not possible to carry out. In some areas, there is also limited evidence about what works, and equally important, what does not work to address specific policy problems. For example, questions about the most cost-effective package of services to support poor subsistence entrepreneurs, or how to design matching grants for SME to maximize impacts on job creation, remain unanswered. 41 Jobs diagnostics have been done in Tunisia, Kazakhstan, and Lebanon. 47 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 EFFECTIVE POLICIES AND PROGRAMS FOR JOBS The MDTF has helped identify where the main knowledge gaps lie in the area of jobs and is gradually generating new evidence to fill these gaps. Different reviews of the literature 42 indicate that the understanding of the impact of alternative policies and programs on jobs outcomes is uneven and that less is known about demand-side interventions. This is probably not surprising. Traditionally, the field of jobs was under the purview of labor economics, with a priority on active and passive labor policies and programs. Therefore, over the years, the field has accumulated considerable evidence about the link between policies or programs such as minimum wages, severance pay, social insurance, training, employment services, or wage subsidies, and labor market outcomes. Less is known about the link between macro and regulatory policies and jobs, and sectoral and regional policies and jobs. Macro and regulatory policies. There is a general understanding about the importance of these policies — fiscal and monetary policies, trade and exchange rate policies, business regulations, regulations of the financial sector, education policies, governance and the rule of law — in promoting investments and growth. The MDTF also funded reviews indicating that business regulations and access to finance can affect the behaviors of entrepreneurs and firms in ways that reduce or promote the entry of new firms, job creation, and productivity growth, particularly in the formal sector. There are important questions, however, about how to adapt macro and regulatory policies when the priority is specific jobs outcomes vs. growth or total factor productivity growth. For instance, the path of fiscal adjustment or trade liberalization can be different when the priority is jobs, youth unemployment, or poverty reduction. Labor policies and programs. The MDTF has supported extensive reviews of the literature and an original meta-analysis of IE to inform, in consultation with the ILO and social partners, best practices to guide the design of core labor regulations (minimum wages, severance pay, dismissal procedures, and contracts); social insurance programs (including for informal workers); and active labor market programs (with a priority on youth).43 It is now possible to make specific policy recommendations about how to design labor regulations and social insurance programs that offer better protection to workers while reducing disincentives for job creation in the formal sector of the economy. There are also guidelines to design active labor market programs that respond to the needs of job-seekers and employers essentially by having appropriate profiling systems that help identify the constraints that beneficiaries face to access jobs; relying on service providers that are pay-based on results; and ensuring that managers are able to monitor and evaluate results. There are nonetheless important questions about how to adapt these policies and programs as the nature of jobs changes because of technological progress, own account work becomes more prevalent, and labor market transitions more frequent. In this case, labor regulations will need to rely less on the agency of the employer, social insurance programs will need to rely more on voluntary arrangements, and active labor market programs will need to have a more prominent role and larger coverage. The latter will require changes in financing mechanisms, where individual 42 “Strategic Directions in Jobs” (TF0A1622) 43 J. Kluve et al. October 2016. “Do Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes? A Systematic Review.” IZA DP No. 10263. 48 LESSONS TO DATE contributions finance a larger share of costs, and contracting and payment systems to providers including through public-private partnerships and social development bonds. Sectoral and regional policies and programs. These are critical policies to address market and institutional failures (coordination failure, learning spillovers) that affect investments and jobs outcomes locally (within a given set of firms, an economic sub-sector, or a geographic region) and where knowledge gaps are the greatest. Examples include policies and programs to support entrepreneurship, SME development, connection of informal producers into VCs or investments within VCs, extension services to farmers, or the development of secondary towns to attract investors and workers. While these programs are quite different from one another, they usually share two common objectives: promoting investments and increasing productivity. From a jobs perspective, an important agenda for research and policy analysis is to understand better how to adapt these programs when the goal is job creation or higher labor productivity — and in particular, how to select beneficiaries and how to provide incentives to increase investments conditional on job creation. MEASUREMENT, M&E OF LENDING AND INVESTMENT OPERATIONS Progress in the measurement and M&E agenda, which is critical for the implementation of lending and investment operations, has been mixed and has exposed important methodological challenges and trade-offs between rigor or accuracy and costs. Supported by Let’s Work Pillar 2, there has been progress in the development of M&E tools to support lending operations and investments that target individuals or enterprises. There is also considerable progress in the design and implementation of tools to measure, ex-ante, the potential for job creation within a given VC, but costs are high and call for a simplified version. Finally, there have been important achievements in the area of computable general equilibrium (CGE) and input/output (I / O) models to simulate the impact of sectoral investments and macro policies on jobs. But no significant progress has been made in the development of instruments and methods to measure, ex-post, the effect of investments in infrastructure or power. M&E tools for operations. Tools that track jobs outcomes at the level of individuals and firms have opened the door to a new generation of jobs-lending operations and are now entering a pilot phase. The tools include indicators and definitions, questionnaires to collect the panel data needed in the calculation of the indicators, and implementation guidelines. The exercise has confirmed the difficulties involved in addressing issues of causality outside RCTs which are, unfortunately, onerous or unfeasible in the case of many operations. Still, by following project beneficiaries over time, it is possible to collect data to calculate changes in indicators such as activity and employment rates, earnings, or measurement of net full-time equivalent job creation. The tools involve a major departure from current approaches, and as a result will be more demanding for institutional capacity and financial resources. Measurement for infrastructure projects is more challenging because of the absence of specific beneficiaries. One alternative involves sampling “users of infrastructure” in certain catchment areas and obtaining information about their behaviors, occupation, or business before and after the project. But there are methodological problems involving attribution, sampling strategies, and how to deal with recall biases. 49 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 Jobs in VCs. The work done in the area of VC development has been ground-breaking. Instruments and implementation guidelines now exist to collect data that allow project managers or policy makers to infer changes in the level and distribution of jobs resulting from investments with a given VC. One of the main challenges was to develop the right sampling methodology given that, very often, participants in the VC are informal enterprises, and there is no credible sampling frame for them. Because of this, the time and cost of the field work and implementation are higher than originally planned. Nonetheless, the results from pilots in countries like Lebanon and Zambia have indicated the potential for job creation within different VCs and the types of constraints that would need to be addressed to achieve this potential. The results are now informing the design of jobs strategies and new lending operations. 44 Tracers. The IE methodology using tracer studies is ready to be tested but awaiting an appropriate pilot. The Tracer Study Working Group has developed the questionnaires, sampling manuals, training manuals, and other materials, but has not yet found the opportunity to test these on an appropriate pilot. Partners were asked to provide projects and interventions that they thought would be fitting to use as pilots, but many of these have proven to be inappropriate. Either the projects were completed a while back, or those that were about to start are on hold because of political turmoil or other variables outside the control of the partner involved in the project. At this time, however, several projects, including some in the WBG, are being looked at for possible piloting. The Tracer Study Working Group is confident that it will be able to pilot the tracer tools and methodologies soon. CGE and I / O models. Although not adequate to predict the impact of a given investment on jobs, the new generation of jobs-focused CGEs and I / O models (combined with high computing power) have generated important insights about the complex link between macro and regulatory 44 “Jobs in Value Chains Survey Design and Implementation Methodology, 2016-2017.” Jobs Group. Forthcoming. 50 LESSONS TO DATE policies and jobs. The models offer policy makers a cost effective way to explore the range of potential jobs outcomes resulting from investments in specific sectors or changes in core macro policies. Their application to countries like Tunisia, Lebanon, and Kazakhstan45 suggests that policies that increase investments and improve allocative efficiency — thus maximizing output — do not necessarily generate a distribution of jobs that is able to deal with issues like youth unemployment or informality. Jobs outcomes depend on the sectors where investments take place; some sectors destroy jobs, whereas others create more jobs for men and adults instead of women and youth, or skilled vs. unskilled workers, or households living in urban vs. rural areas. These models have also helped understand the links between direct, indirect, and induced jobs across different economic sectors. In the majority of cases, the main gains from a given investment come from indirect and induced jobs, which are often not included, for instance, in cost benefit analysis. 45 Undertaken as part of jobs diagnostics for these countries. 51 ANNEXES 53 ANNEX A: A SAMPLING OF GRANTS WITH A GENDER FOCUS ANNEX A LINKING VULNERABLE YOUTH WITH DIGITAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES COUNTRY: PAKISTAN ACTIVITY LEAD: ANNA O’DONNELL FOCUS AREAS: GENDER, YOUTH, ICT/DIGITAL ECONOMY, FCV WINDOW: FCV TYPE OF ACTIVITY: PILOT AND EVALUATION CLOSING DATE: 06/30/2017 AMOUNT: $0.3M CONTEXT Over the next several decades, Pakistan is poised to surpass Brazil and Indonesia to become the fourth most populous country in the world, after China, India, and the United States. With nearly 53 million active youth (under 25), the challenges of inclusion and empowerment of these young people will only continue to grow. Unemployment and low growth are especially challenging in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Years of regional instability underpinned by decades of poor governance, coupled with marginalization and underdevelopment in the area, laid the groundwork for militants in KP to exploit frustrations. Youth unemployment in KP is around 10.5 percent, which remains above the 8 percent national average, and does not capture the “inactive” and underemployed young people. PROJECT APPROACH The main objectives of this proposal are to train up to 1,200-1,500 youth in KP 53M so that trainees can access online work income-generating opportunities (online work is also often referred to as e-lancing), and to provide post-training support and guidance. There is significant focus on women, as e-lancing would help women working from home in this otherwise conservative part of the country. ACTIVE This proposal builds on an existing World Bank technical assistance program to YOUTH <25 explore options for youth employment in the global virtual economy. I N PAKI S TAN RESULTS 1) The roadmap for the province is complete. The goal of the diagnostic was to provide a strategic overview of the sector and how to develop digital jobs. 2) The training modules were for three groups—women, university youth (of KP whom 30 percent are women), and rural areas. The training for women started in December 2015, and in the rural areas, started in March 2016. The training for university youth eventually merged into a government-financed PAKISTAN program, where the curriculum and train-the-trainers informed the program. 3) A newly developed monitoring system is collecting information from beneficiaries. 55 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 KEY LESSONS LEARNED WHILE IMPLEMENTING GRANT The trust fund activities were extremely useful as a demonstration effect. Based on our pilot testing and initial results, the government decided to launch its own program, which allowed a much greater impact. One of the cohorts targeted for the training was youth in universities, ensuring a computer-literate target with laptops. However, many students ended up dropping out of the training program before they completed it. Initial results from the monitoring program indicate that students are often busy with their studies, and the fact that the training was free meant that they possibly did not value it as much. The training for women demonstrated that the program needs to be adjusted for women to pay particular attention to their needs. For example, on content, women were more likely to work on content writing or graphic design. In addition, digital rights and digital safety sessions are included to ensure women can protect themselves online. Many women dropped out because of competing domestic duties, thus creating a space for women to remain part of a network so they can re-enter is important. LEVERAGING The outcomes of this grant will include a follow-up World Bank project/grant or a government- financed program that will bring a Digital KP program, including digital skill development, to all 25 districts in the province over the next five years. 56 ANNEX A RAPID SKILLS TRAINING FOR YOUTH EMPLOYMENT COUNTRY: GLOBAL / MULTI-COUNTRY ACTIVITY LEAD: VICTOR MULAS FOCUS AREAS: GENDER, YOUTH, ICT/ DIGITAL ECONOMY WINDOW: JOBS & YOUTH TYPE OF ACTIVITY: IMPACT EVALUATION CLOSING DATE: 11/10/2017 AMOUNT: $0.6M CONTEXT Coding “bootcamps” are rapid technology skills training programs that emerged around 2011 in Silicon Valley and New York City, in response to the arising information technology (IT) business needs of fast-growing technology companies. The rise of coding bootcamps is explained by the growing IT skills gap that leaves hundreds of thousands of programming jobs unfilled worldwide. Additionally, the promise of high post-bootcamp employability (up to 99 percent in certain cases), with higher than average local salaries, attracts those aiming to switch careers by re-skilling or up-skilling. Finally, coding bootcamps offer skills trainings compressed into a short time span and at a fraction of the cost of traditional computer science university programs. The World Bank’s Technical Assistance project Coding Bootcamps: Technology Rapid Skills Training for Youth Employment piloted three coding bootcamps in 2016, targeting low-to-middle income youth of Beirut, Lebanon; Medellin, Colombia; and Nairobi, Kenya. The project’s goals were to test whether coding bootcamps are applicable to an emerging economy context by creating employment, reducing the skills mismatch, and providing opportunities to leapfrog from a low-education and low-income background. PROJECT APPROACH The ultimate goal of this initiative is to use randomized control trials (RCTs) and qualitative studies to identify key success factors and practices in these bootcamps that result in employability and employment. This information will advise policies in the World Bank’s client countries, as well as future projects using this approach. This initiative is specifically focused on addressing the youth unemployment problem in urban settings with traditionally large and growing young populations in developing countries. All three cities were selected because of vibrant local tech innovation ecosystems, relevant size of low-income youth population (which helps extrapolate findings to other cities and even countries), and high youth unemployment. The impact evaluations financed by this grant target the talent gap between job seekers’ skills and specific skillsets required by local tech businesses. The project will measure the impact through an RCT in Medellin and qualitative studies in Beirut and Nairobi. It will also develop a case study on each of the three bootcamps, as well as a toolkit, which will include a how-to guide with the outline of the lessons learned and research findings. 57 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 RESULTS 1) Core Bootcamp Toolkit-Methodology and a Step-by-Step Guide on how to establish a rapid skills training program: The project has developed a methodology, including both the randomized control trial (RCT) experiment design and the qualitative study design. The project will share the methodology at the end of the activity, together with the final results, and is currently developing the step-by-step guide. 2) Pilot bootcamps in Beirut, Medellin, and Nairobi (including local partners’ hands-on capacity trainings): The project has implemented pilots in the three locations and, in each case, adapted the curriculum or content to local needs. 3) Report on monitoring the impact of bootcamps on employment and employability of participants: The project collected data from the initial survey in the three locations, and the final survey was ready for deployment in February 2017. Since the pilot in Medellin was more time- and effort-intensive, the project prepared a methodology to monitor the results both in the treatment and control groups, and hired a local consultant to do so. Regarding the qualitative study, the project carried out initial focus groups in Nairobi and Beirut. The final focus groups took place in Nairobi and Beirut by February 2017. 4) Dissemination: The website (www.decodingbootcamps.org) on the results of the activity and dissemination campaign is developed and open to the public; it includes discussion events and blogs. A paper with case studies and best practices on bootcamps is ready for publication. The project is developing a how-to guide, detailing how to implement and catalyze the effect of a bootcamp from a policy-maker perspective, and publish the report with experiment and implementation details and results for each location at the end of the activity when final data are analyzed. KEY LESSONS LEARNED WHILE IMPLEMENTING GRANT (1) The model for coding bootcamps is still in development; however, this activity has provided three key elements that are essential for these trainings to be connected to employment and education opportunities: a) a curriculum based on local demand by tech companies; b) a selection process that screens for attitude and basic skills to absorb the program; and c) an employment/ career development connection with companies. (2) Coding bootcamps applied to low-educated, less-skilled youth may require additional training to produce direct results in employability. This is linked to a deeper learning of basic skills and soft skills, which requires additional support beyond the first iteration. (3) Finally, in rapid technical skills training programs such as coding bootcamps, technical training is not enough. It should be complemented by soft-skills training, particularly if the bootcamps are targeting the lowest income youth. The main feedback from the employers of bootcamp graduates has been that some students lack skills that are critical for the 21st century job market, such as communication or problem-solving. A greater effort must be put on soft-skills development if carrying out similar rapid training activities in World Bank operations. LEVERAGING The outcome of the grant will directly influence the design of a new lending operation in Kenya on Industry and Entrepreneurship for $50 million, and inform the Lebanon Economic Opportunities Diagnostics Technical Assistance, which feeds into two lending operations (amounts TBC) in Lebanon to support economic growth and employment creation. 58 ANNEX A TACKLING CHILDCARE: INNOVATIVE APPROACHES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES AND POLICY MAKERS TO RETAIN (FEMALE) TALENT COUNTRY: GLOBAL ACTIVITY LEAD: CARMEN NIETHAMMER FOCUS AREAS: GENDER WINDOW: DIAGNOSTICS AND OPERATIONS TYPE OF ACTIVITY: ANALYTICS AND RESEARCH CLOSING DATE: 06/10/2017 AMOUNT: $0.2M CONTEXT Despite compelling evidence supporting the importance of women’s economic participation for business growth, companies are slow in creating equal opportunities for women as employees, leaders, and suppliers. Many private sector initiatives targeted at women are often carried out as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives and are not necessarily designed from a business angle, which can compromise scale and sustainability. Within companies, a systematic approach to gender diversity and retention in the workforce is often absent or needs improvement. Easy and equitable access to affordable child, sick, and elderly care services plays a major role in ensuring better workplace gender diversity, morale, and retention, as well as decreased absenteeism and turnover. Lack of care services can adversely impact parents’ income, the profitability and corporate culture of the companies that employ them, and the GDP and global competitiveness of their country. Unless private sector companies and governments join hands to address care economy issues, they will not be able to ensure better productivity, attraction, and retention of (female) talent in the labor force or achieve their full growth potential and high returns on their human resource investments. PROJECT APPROACH This project aims to substantiate, through innovative research, the business case for employer- supported childcare in emerging markets, and identify suitable mechanisms for providing a spectrum of care services. This can include giving financial support and sufficient leave to employees, pursuing public-private partnerships to provide care, and fully outsourcing care services. The Tackling Childcare project will also explore how public sector regulations can further incentivize the private sector to help increase both the quantity and quality of care services, and how the private sector can inform and engage with public entities on care. 59 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 RESULTS 1) As of January 2017, the project had identified nine out of 10 case study companies across multiple sectors in emerging and developed economies. Of these, seven case study data collection visits had been completed. The project is also using data from these case studies to inform a decision-making model (blueprint) for other companies to use. The final Tackling Childcare global report (scheduled for publication in the fall of 2017) will include all case study reports, accompanied by country highlights provided by the World Bank Group’s Women, Business and the Law (WBL) team, as well as the decision-making model. 2) Through desk research conducted in 50 economies, the WBL team has developed and tested a set of employer-supported childcare survey questions to gather data on the types and dimensions of government policies and regulations that can incentivize or hamper private sector employers in their support to childcare. The team will roll out a set of questions/indicators to 100 economies, and roll out questions relating to the tax framework and funding for employer- supported childcare to 189 economies as part of WBL’s data collection cycle for its 2018 report. It is expected that the topic of employer-supported childcare will feature in the 2018 Women, Business and the Law flagship report (launch in early 2018). KEY LESSONS LEARNED WHILE IMPLEMENTING GRANT (1) Business Case Research: The case study visits have proven to be most valuable not only to the research team, but also to the companies themselves. Beyond the case study output, companies shared that they appreciated the knowledge gained through those visits and focused discussions on employer-supported childcare. Many companies were not fully aware of the business case and return on investments in employer-supported childcare. As a result of the team’s visits, they were often able to tweak and/or further expand their offerings. Quantitative data are not always available, and in many instances, qualitative data or anecdotal evidence tell/complement the story. (2) Regulations that Impact Employer-Supported Childcare: The team learned that this project is indeed filling an important knowledge gap. So far, the team has not come across a country where the different policies are consolidated in one document or monitored by one agency. Governments are eager to learn from the experiences elsewhere to support parents who want to remain in the labor force and to find models that enable more children to access quality childcare. In India and Sri Lanka, for example, government agencies and trade associations have asked the World Bank for advice on such regulations. LEVERAGING The World Bank Group’s Advisory Council on Gender, which consists of representatives from the public and private sectors, has taken a keen interest in the topic of employer-supported childcare and requested a learning event to take place as part of its annual get-together during the 2017 World Bank Group/International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings. 60 ANNEX A THE DIRECT AND SPILLOVER IMPACTS OF BUSINESS TRAINING AND MENTORING . OF FEMALE ENTREPRENEURS COUNTRY: KENYA ACTIVITY LEAD: DAVID MCKENZIE FOCUS AREAS: GENDER, SMEs, AGRICULTURE WINDOW: ACTIONABLE RESEARCH TYPE OF ACTIVITY: RESEARCH STUDY CLOSING DATE: 06/30/2018 AMOUNT: $0.25M CONTEXT Microenterprises run by women account for a large share of marketplace activities in many African countries. However, the majority of these businesses are very small in scale, yielding subsistence amounts of earnings for their owners and rarely growing to the point of creating above subsistence incomes for their owners or jobs for others. Business training programs are intended to overcome this constraint, and while they have become one of the most common forms of active support by governments, donors, and civil society, there is still debate about their effectiveness, particularly when it comes to supporting the growth of women-led small businesses. Emerging evidence (e.g., Grimm and Paffhausen, 2015; Anderson-MacDonald et al, 2015) points to the need for more intensive interventions to get microenterprise owners to change their practices and have sustained growth. 61 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 PROJECT APPROACH The objectives of the proposed study are to enhance the business training treatment through an intense mentoring intervention, and measure its impact over time on business survival, profitability, employment, and growth of female small businesses already exposed to entrepreneurship training, as well as the spillover impacts on neighboring firms. The grant-financed activities consist of financing follow-up surveys of an intervention that has already occurred. RESULTS The team has successfully implemented the mentoring intervention, and carried out two follow-up surveys to measure impacts. It is preparing a draft research paper. KEY LESSONS LEARNED WHILE IMPLEMENTING GRANT Business training had limited impacts in the short term, but appears to be having larger impacts over time for these women. They seem to be succeeding without taking away sales from other women in the marketplace. Mentoring does increase business practices, but doesn’t seem to pass the cost-benefit test. LEVERAGING The outcomes of this grant will include dissemination—and uptake—of new knowledge/technology/ best practice targeting micro-enterprises in upcoming World Bank operations, and the release of a working paper 2017, followed by dissemination 62 ANNEX A PUBLIC WORKS AND WELFARE: RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIALS IN TUNISIA AND COMOROS COUNTRY: GLOBAL / MULTI-COUNTRY ACTIVITY LEAD: ERIC MVUKIYHE FOCUS AREAS: GENDER, YOUTH, POVERTY WINDOW: JOBS & YOUTH TYPE OF ACTIVITY: IMPACT EVALUATION CLOSING DATE: 06/30/2017 AMOUNT: $0.67M CONTEXT The development objective of this grant is to contribute to improved knowledge on the impacts of Public Works Projects (PWP) on the socio-economic outcomes of the long-term unemployed in a fragile country. This work takes place in the context of experimental impact evaluations, or randomized controlled trials (RCTs), integrated in World Bank-funded projects in Tunisia and the Comoros. Each of these impact evaluations (IEs) studies a PWP designed to improve the livelihood of poor households through an extra source of income, and creation and maintenance of community-owned infrastructures. Activities are designed and implemented in collaboration with the responsible government agency in each country case, thus ensuring policy relevance for the current activities, as well as maximizing the likelihood that findings are used to inform future policy. PROJECT APPROACH In Tunisia, the project is conducting an RCT of the Community Works JENDOUBA and Local Participation (CWLP)—a cash-for-work program whose main objectives are to create short-term employment opportunities for unemployed unskilled and semi-skilled workers, and to provide access to basic infrastructure services to the target population in Jendouba, one of TUNISIA the most under-served governates in Tunisia. The impact evaluation seeks to ascertain the net employment and welfare gains associated with cash- for-work activities, and test the effects of a complementary capital injection on beneficiaries’ employability in the medium-term and long-term. In the Comoros, the project is conducting an RCT as part of the Comoros Social Safety Net Project (SSNP). The IE seeks to provide rigorous evidence to three key questions: (1) What are the direct effects of temporary employment in a cash-for-work program on the social and economic outcomes of poor workers and their household members? (2) Can temporary employment in a cash-for-work program generate positive externalities on beneficiary communities? and (3) What are the effects of the program recipients’ gender on intra-household allocations and welfare? To answer these questions, the IE uses randomization at three levels. First, targeted communities were randomly assigned to either a 20 percent threshold or a 40 percent threshold in order to measure the spillover 63 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 effects of cash-for-work activities on recipient communities. Second, in each targeted community, participation in the program is assigned at random within the pool of eligible households. This enables the measurement of the direct effects of cash-for-work. Third, to assess the gender dimensions of the program, households selected for participation in the cash-for-work activities are randomly assigned to have a female worker or a male worker. RESULTS Tunisia: The project refined and improved survey instruments, programmed them into tablets, and piloted them. It trained enumerators, supervisors, and technical support personnel from the survey firm. It performed and concluded a follow-up data collection, and produced a pre-analysis plan that is due for publication shortly. The project performed a complementary randomization, for the provision of additional participants and controls; continuously cleaned the data collected during the data collection process and resolved any incongruity; and prepared outcome variables and indexes. It also analyzed the balance between cohorts for all potential confounding variables available at the time. The Comoros: The project completed a draft Concept Note, and designed and prepared survey instruments both at the household and the village level. It procured a survey firm to carry out this work, with baseline data being collected in 69 villages and expected to be complete by April 2017. KEY LESSONS LEARNED WHILE IMPLEMENTING GRANT (1) In Tunisia, keeping the control group engaged was challenging. Since both the participants and the controls self-selected as wanting to participate in the public work program, while being offered a limited salary, both groups were thought to be among the poorest. Given this, and in a context of a political transition triggered by the distrust of the population in the government, the individuals selected to be controls for the IE were highly dissatisfied. This led to a higher than expected rate of controls that did not want to participate in the follow-up data collection. (2) In hoping to improve our coverage of the controls, and similarly of the individuals that desisted from the program, the survey firm visited the homes of the people they could not locate six times. They also required the help of local knowledgeable villagers such as neighbors, mail carriers, and police officers, and called phone numbers on file several times. The survey firm kept track of their attempts to reach the people. After limited improvement of the coverage and after weeks of continuous efforts, the World Bank did a complementary randomization to provide replacements for people that could not be found. This yielded good results, as the coverage of the three groups (participants, controls, and desisting) is now similar and satisfactory. LEVERAGING The outcomes of this grant will include lessons learned that will contribute to improved impact of Public Works Projects (PWP) on the socio-economic outcomes of the long-term unemployed in a fragile country. 64 ANNEX A TRAINING WOMEN IN SOLTUNA COUNTRY: THE SOLOMON ISLANDS ACTIVITY LEAD: AMY LUINSTRA FOCUS AREAS: GENDER, PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, JOBS QUALITY, FCV WINDOW: JOBS & FCV TYPE OF ACTIVITY: DIAGNOSTICS, TRAINING, ADVISORY CLOSING DATE: 06/30/2018 AMOUNT: $0.3M CONTEXT The two overarching objectives of Training Women in SolTuna (TWIST) are to improve employability skills for Solomon Islander women and communities in the fisheries sector, and monitor and demonstrate effective partnerships by the private sector in training for employment. PROJECT APPROACH SolTuna is currently the only tuna processing and canning company in the Solomon Islands and is among the largest private sector employers in the country with over 1,500 employees, the majority of whom are female. The company has been planning a significant expansion with a new IFC loan committed in September 2013, but is constrained by the availability of reliable workers, the financial literacy and numeracy level of workers it can attract, and the ability to recruit women into non-traditional, more productive roles in the company. The rationale for the intervention is to address these three issues. The analysis and subsequent report exploring the underlying causes for absenteeism and turnover will guide the development of the training modules for SolTuna employees. This financial literacy training will help women employees understand and make the most of the 30 percent attendance bonus SolTuna offers, in turn reducing levels of absenteeism. The pre-employment training in target communities for SolTuna recruitment will help improve the financial literacy and numeracy skills of the wider SolTuna workforce, while the awareness-raising training and outreach will help to recruit women into roles they currently are unable to access, such as plumbing, lab work, and forklift driving. There is currently minimal private sector engagement in the provision of training for workers in the Solomon Islands. In this sense, the training provided to SolTuna employees and in target communities for SolTuna recruitment, if successful, could act as a catalyst for other private sector partners to follow suit. The socio-economic baseline and endline surveys of participants, skills assessment, and course evaluation will help to determine whether the model adopted to address SolTuna’s issues (absenteeism, turnover, lack of basic skills, and inability to attract women into non- traditional roles) has been a success. The communications materials resulting from this analysis will help share these results with a broader set of stakeholders, demonstrating the positive role the private sector can play in training for employment. 65 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 RESULTS 1) Innovative interventions/operations for job creation: TWIST represents an innovative partnership with the private sector, both with the client SolTuna and as a foundation for knowledge dissemination to private sector enterprises in the Solomon Islands, but it does not directly constitute the design of an integrated job strategy. 2) Improved employment and earning opportunities: SolTuna represents the Solomon Islands’ largest manufacturing employer. By improving the financial literacy and empowerment of its majority-women production staff, TWIST provides an innovative private sector collaboration to improve the ability of the majority of the Solomon Islands’ manufacturing workforce to manage their income more effectively for their households’ welfare. It also contributes to improving worker attendance and productivity of a major industrial enterprise in the Solomon Islands, enabling further productivity and job creation. For example, rates of absenteeism have dropped significantly at SolTuna since beginning the financial competency training, which makes employees more likely to be eligible for incentive payments that are tied to attendance. The 10 women who received training as forklift operators also have increased earning opportunities through access to jobs previously unavailable to them. 3) Improved knowledge or evidence base on jobs challenges and solutions: Baseline surveying and qualitative information collected served as a diagnostic of the basic financial literacy skills and financial empowerment of SolTuna’s majority-female workforce. Activities also informed deeper understanding of labor force participation motivations and barriers, and gave greater insight on the drivers of absenteeism. These insights are expected to be relevant at other businesses in the Solomon Islands, and provide vital information about workplace gender dynamics, including promotion and turnover to inform actions to address gender issues in SolTuna and in other private sector enterprises. 66 ANNEX A KEY LESSONS LEARNED WHILE IMPLEMENTING GRANT (1) The initially planned scope of work with SolTuna was more extensive and in a tighter timeframe. The team observed early on that there were limitations on the absorptive capacity at SolTuna to work on many fronts related to the advisory project, in addition to achieving its core business objectives in such a challenging operating environment. (2) Local capacity is a significant challenge for delivering the training effectively, both in terms of capacity at SolTuna and at the local NGO training partner the team engaged. To address this challenge, the team worked closely with key representatives at SolTuna to ensure all steps were fully understood and fully implemented, and supported SolTuna through capacity building in key areas important for effective implementation. These areas included overseeing training logistics; guiding the HR manager and team through collection of key data; and encouraging the client to link employee identification numbers, instead of names, with payroll and other key HR data to enable better analysis of HR data. It became clear that the local training partner was not able to deliver the training or manage the training logistics, monitoring and evaluation (M&E), and reporting to a high enough level due to weak management capacity and weak institutional structures. As such, the team decided to engage the local trainer directly following the pilot phase, rather than working through the NGO partner. This has enabled a much more effective delivery of the training and allowed for better communications between the project team and the trainer. (3) Important lessons were learned in relation to the drivers behind high rates of absenteeism at SolTuna, such as health issues among workers and their families, lack of child and elder care, transportation issues, housing issues, domestic violence, and poor money management. By better understanding these drivers, the project team has been able to tailor the TWIST training to target the specific challenges facing women employees. The project has also demonstrated a reduction in absenteeism among training participants, suggesting a link between improvements in financial competency, including household budgeting, setting of savings goals, understanding of payslips and benefits, and attendance at work. LEVERAGING The outcomes of this grant will include $1.7 million from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to conduct additional work focused on the following objectives: Improve business environment and advocacy for women’s participation in formal sector in the Solomon Islands; improve employability skills and opportunities for women in one other high-priority sector; and improve understanding of the drivers and motivating factors behind women’s participation in the formal labor market. 67 ANNEX B: LIST OF SMALL GRANTS FOR RESEARCH PROJECTS ANNEX B TF Number Title TTL Name Big Data Analysis For New Evidence-based Answers on the Impact of Labor and TF0A0781 Vocational Training Programs and the Role of Films’ Dynamics: Follow-up Research Joana Silva Work on Skills and Jobs in Brazil TF0A0782 Improving Job Quality of Informal Jobs in Bangladesh Yoonyoung Cho TF0A0783 Job Quality Framework Hulya Ulku TF0A0791 Labor Market Big Data Analysis for Skills Forecast and Improved Matching Shinsaku Nomura TF0A0808 Access to Skills and Vocational Training in Kenya Dino Leonardo Merotto Creating a Global Micro Database to Track the Labor Market Outcomes of the Poor Joao Pedro; David TF0A0816 (I2D2) Newhouse; Kinnon Scott TF0A0828 Training Course on Measuring Violent Conflict in Micro-Level Surveys Diane Steele Gabriel Demombynes; TF0A0882 Strengthening jobs data in Vietnam Mauro Testaverde TF0A0883 Public Transport Access and Labor Market Success Evaluation in Chinese Cities Yuhui Jiao TF0A0979 Job Creation and informality reduction in Turkey Ximena Vanessa Del Carpio Tackling Youth Labor Market Exclusion in Indonesia and Philippines: Analytical TF0A0982 Vivi Alatas; Truman Packard Underpinnings for Policy Actions TF0A1069 The informal sector in the Sahel Nancy Benjamin TF0A1438 Data, Diagnostics and Institutional Innovations for Jobs in Ecuador Ana Maria Oviedo Silva TF0A1563 Labor Market Dynamics and Social Protection for Rural to Urban Migrants in China John T. Giles TF0A1622 Strategic Directions in Jobs Alvaro Gonzalez The direct and spillover impacts of business training and mentoring of female entrepre- TF0A1854 David J. McKenzie neurs: experimental evidence from Kenya TF0A1876 “Entangled: Workers’ adjustment to trade Gladys C. Lopez-Acevedo Michael Weber; Hernan TF0A1957 Jobs Indicators on Enterprise-Level Data (JIELD) Winkler Aaditya Mattoo; Bob TF0A2163 Globalization, Labor Markets and Trade Policy Rijkers; Erhan Artuc TF0A2368 Pathway to Formality Jamele Rigolini TF0A2657 Afghanistan: Conflict and Private Sector Gladys Lopez Acevedo Parmesh Shah; Madhur TF0A2964 Rural Jobs: Designing Policies and Programs for the Next Generation Gautam TF0A4076 Taxes and Jobs in a Globalized Economy Pierella Paci 69 ANNEX C: JOBS CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Intermediate Job Creation Job Quality Job Access Outcomes Access to / Working of Firm Performance / Product  Investments Labor Force Working of Labor Market Human Capital Job Creation (by New Enterprises Entrepreneurs / Self- Benefits Working Conditions and for Jobs Employer) Worker Productivity Earnings / Livelihoods Participation Access and Opportunity Employed Project Name Interventions LWP Mozambique MSME / Entrepreneurship Yes Yes Yes Yes LWP Tanzania MSME / Entrepreneurship Yes Yes Yes Yes Côte d’Ivoire Jobs Analytics Skills and Training Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Impact Evaluation: Strengthening Micro-Entrepreneurship for Disadvantaged Youth in the Informal MSME / Entrepreneurship Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Sector Big Data Analysis for New Evidence-Based Answers on the Impact of Labor and Vocational Training Wage Subsidies Yes Yes Yes Programs and the Role of Films’ Dynamics: Follow-up Research Work on Skills and Jobs in Brazil CN — Improving the Jobs Impact of the Industrial Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Public Employment Services Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Microenterprise Supply Intermediation in Colombia MSME / Entrepreneurship Yes Yes Yes GENIE Broadband for Development Program ICT Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Youth Entrepreneurship and Spatial Match in Urban Labor Markets in Ethiopia MSME / Entrepreneurship Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Improving Jobs of Smallholder Women Farmers Livelihoods / CDD Yes Yes Yes Yes Entrepreneurship Pilot to Promote Economic Opportunities for Jordanians and Syrians MSME / Entrepreneurship Yes Yes Yes Lebanon Subsidized Temporary Employment Program (Capital for Private Jobs) Wage Subsidies Yes Yes Deepening the Jobs Impact of the Public Works Programs through Capital Injection and Social Public Works Yes Yes Network Stimulation: a Randomized Control Trial in Eastern DRC Burkina Faso — Cash Transfers vs. Matching Grants for Jobs Creation in MSMEs Wage Subsidies Yes Yes Yes Yes Improving Access to Markets through Rural Roads Rehabilitation in Nicaragua — Overcoming Transport / Logistics Yes Yes Yes Additional Constraints CCT Plus: Combining Conditional Cash Transfers, Vocational Training and Business Wage Subsidies Yes Yes Yes Yes Grants — Long-term Evaluation of a Randomized Trial in Nicaragua Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training for Youth Employment Skills and Training Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Public Works and Welfare: Randomized Control Trials in Tunisia and Comoros Public Works Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Liberia Youth Opportunities IE — Data MSME / Entrepreneurship Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 71 ANNEX C ANNEX D: IMPACT EVALUATION HYPOTHESES ANNEX D TF Number Project Name Impact Evaluation Hypothesis TF0A0229 Mozambique LWP The study will test the hypothesis that the expansion of agricultural aggregator schemes in Mozambique could have a significant impact on (direct and indirect) job creation, on productivity growth and on farmer incomes, which is reasonably proportionate to the cost of the subsidies needed to trigger the expansion of the schemes. It will further test the hypothesis that once the new out-growers are incorporated, the schemes can be financially sustainable in the medium and long term without the need for further subsidy. To this end, the study will carry out a rigorous empirical evaluation of the impact on farmer incomes and will develop a cost-benefit framework, grounded in the principles of public economics, to estimate the financial and economic returns to each of the out-grower models evaluated in the pilot, including an analysis of the distribution of costs and benefits between the participants. TF0A0606 Tanzania LWP Can an integrated support package (assured market access at a minimum price, access to credit and modern inputs, and extension) provided and supported by a platform of stakeholders in the VC and coordinated by a third party (WFP) be shown to increase smallholder labor productivity? The application is to maize, a key staple crop in Tanzania. TF0A0731 Côte d’Ivoire Jobs The impact evaluation seeks to address the following questions. On Youth: 1) What is the impact Analytics of apprenticeship program on the share of youths in apprenticeship? Do more disadvantaged youth get access? 2) What is the impact of the apprenticeship program on youths’ employment and earnings? On Firms: 3) Does the placement of apprentices from the program in firms displaces traditional apprentices? 4) Does the placement of apprentices from the program in firms improve productivity and revenues from firms? TF0A0858 Morocco: Impact The impact evaluation tests the hypothesis that through training youth from disadvantaged back- Evaluation: ground (no high school, poor neighborhoods) can help them start and sustain micro business Strengthening Micro- ventures. The evaluation will provide new evidence on the effect of targeted entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship for training for disadvantaged youth on the development of entrepreneurial skills and attitudes; the Disadvantaged Youth probability to start and expand a business; income generation and job creation; among a series of in the Informal Sector additional outcomes. The evaluation will explore how the gender sensitive project features help young women to become successful entrepreneurs, and thereby will make important contributions to the existing knowledge on entrepreneurship. TF0A0781 Brazil: Big Data The impact evaluation examines whether conditional cash transfers impact student learning the Analysis For New key channel through which they may lead to higher human-capital accumulation and increased Evidence-based labor market earnings. Using a regression discontinuity design the impact evaluation will examine Answers on the whether conditional cash transfers impact test scores in national exams. Impact of Labor and Vocational Training Programs and the Role of Films’ Dynamics: Follow-up Research Work on Skills and Jobs in Brazil TF0A2966 China: Improving The main hypothesis that the team wants to test is whether employment services improve jobs the Jobs Impact outcomes at the individual level in the context of planned industrial relocation. The team also of the Industrial plans to explore the implications of the employment services for aggregate jobs outcomes at the Development of market level. This hypothesis will be tested in a context of massive industrial relocation currently the Yangtze River underway in China. The relocation is facilitated by the Government of China and the team will Economic Belt focus on the manufacturing sector where companies tend to move from the (wealthy) downstream Yangtze River provinces to the (less-wealthy) middle and upstream provinces. In this context, at the aggregate level, having employment services potentially allows for more job creation, because companies that consider relocating can assess availability of labor and plan for their labor force in the new locations. At the individual level, employment services can reduce search cost for both job seekers and employers and improve the quality of job matching. The team plans to pay par- ticular attention to (i) the role of public-private partnership in organizing of employment services, and (ii) whether skills development is provided as part of employment services. 73 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF Number Project Name Impact Evaluation Hypothesis TF0A2275 Microenterprise Evaluation Question 1: What is the impact of using Agruppa’s supply chain service on the costs, Supply Intermediation travel time, prices, profits, and sales of firms which are offered the service? in Colombia Hypothesis 1a: Use of Agruppa’s service will result in a reduction in travel time and travel costs for participating firms. Hypothesis 1b: Use of Agruppa’s service will result in a reduction in unit costs for vegetables for participating firms. Hypothesis 1c: Participating firms will pass through some of the reduction in unit costs to prices, so they will charge lower prices for their products. Hypothesis 1d: Participating firms will sell more products and make higher profits. This will come through longer opening times (since less time is spent traveling), through attracting more customers (due to lower prices), or to make higher profits on the same amount of sales (due to reduced costs). Evaluation Question 2: What is the impact of competitors using Agruppa’s service on firms not offered the service to begin with? Hypothesis 2a: In the short-term non-participating firms will suffer a drop in sales or in profits as a result of their competitors reducing prices. Hypothesis 2b: Over the longer-term, some of these initially uninterested firms will respond to the loss of sales by signing up for Agruppa’s service. TF0A2640 Georgia: GENIE The impact evaluation will test the following hypotheses. Ex-posty study: Broadband for Hypothesis 1: Broadband expansion increases aggregate firm growth. Development program Hypothesis 2: Larger firms face less constraints to broadband utilization and are able to gener- ate larger impacts than smaller firms. Hypothesis 3a: Firms respond to broadband expansion by shifting towards more high-skilled over low-skilled workers. Hypothesis 3b: Wages of high-skilled workers increase in recognition of higher productivity. Ongoing study: Hypothesis 1a: E-commerce training will increase the likelihood that firm invests in e-com- merce activity (starting a web page, advertising online, etc.). This in turn will expand the customer base and increase turnover. Hypothesis 1b: Changes in number of employees working for the firm is ambiguous. We hypoth- esize that firms will increase demand for workers with ICT skills over low-skilled work that is more easily automated. The proportion of high-skilled to low-skilled workers will increase. Hypothesis 2: The direction of impact is ambiguous due to two competing hypotheses: Hypothesis 2a. By channeling resources towards firms that are able to best absorb them, train- ing resources are allocated more efficiently, improving firms’ e-commerce investment decisions and resulting in larger impacts than in a standard training. Hypothesis 2b. There will be no additionality from providing training resources to high-per- forming businesses since they would have invested without support. Low-performing firms are the ones facing the highest constraints to e-commerce participation and thus offer the highest potential additionality from the training. By ensuring resources are made available to low-per- forming firms, the standard training will yield higher overall additionality (and resulting impact) compared to the competitive training. TF0A2670 Youth entrepreneur- The impact evaluation will test the following hypotheses. On youth employment: ship and spatial match 1. Self-employment grants will have higher impact on self-employment outcomes when in urban labor markets targeted to individuals predicted to have high entrepreneurial ability than when provided to in Ethiopia self-selected individuals. 2. Community targeting will be more effective at identifying cred- it-constrained individuals with entrepreneurial skills than data-based targeting, given that entrepreneurial skill is hard to predict based on observable characteristics. On spatial mismatch: 1. Local labor markets for low-skilled workers are not well integrated across a large city like Addis. Thus, the availability of public works in a local market will reduce the overall supply of low-skilled labor, pushing up unskilled wages and/or lowering unemployment. 2. Female employment will be more affected, if the types of public works opportunities are more female-oriented, and/or if women are working to begin with. 3. Public works will result in benefits for both beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries. 4. Cash grants among low-income individuals looking for a wage job increases search for jobs outside the local labor market and improves employment outcomes. They are less effective for women unless childcare is also made available to help them manage childcare responsibilities. 5. Job-seekers with the ability to credibly signal their soft skills like punctuality and work effort through certification, will have better employment outcomes particularly in markets outside their local market. 74 ANNEX D TF Number Project Name Impact Evaluation Hypothesis TF0A2832 Mozambique: This impact evaluation will assess how investment in agricultural and commercial practices affect Improving jobs of women farmers’ adoption of high-value crops and improved jobs. The IE will also test the addi- smallholder women tional impacts on jobs’ productivity of investing in women farmers’ non-cognitive skills including farmers proactive and persistent behavior. TF0A2900 Jordan and Syria: The central hypothesis that is being tested is whether regular business networking over a certain Entrepreneurship Pilot period of time (e.g., one year) would facilitate business interactions between and among Syrian to Promote Economic and Jordanian businesses, entrepreneurs, and potential entrepreneurs and by doing so would Opportunities for improve business performance and job creation for both Syrians and Jordanians businesses and Jordanians and entrepreneurs. Syrians TF0A2901 Lebanon Subsidized The impact evaluation will measure: (i) the impact of the matching grants on firms and the extent Temporary of death-weight losses; (ii) the impact of intermediation services on individuals in the absence Employment Program of capital subsidies; and (iii) the impact of intermediation services on individuals when there are (Capital for Private capital subsidies. Jobs) TF0A2965 DRC: Deepening the The IE proposes to evaluate the following hypotheses— Jobs Impact of the Hypothesis 1: Assuming that STEP participants are still capital constrained after participating Public Works Programs in labor intensive public works, the business grant will relieve these constraints, increase busi- through Capital ness investment, business survival and long-term income. Injection and Social Hypothesis 2: Assuming an uneven distribution of management quality, the social network Network Stimulation: treatment will increase business communication leading to the uptake of new business prac- A Randomized Control tices, increased business survival and income. Trial in Eastern DRC Hypothesis 3: Assuming both an uneven distribution of management quality and capital con- straints, the combination of the two treatments will increase business communication as well as relaxing capital constraints, leading to increased investment, the uptake of new business practices, investment, increased business survival and income. TF0A2968 Burkina Faso – Cash This design of the impact evaluation tests the hypothesis that cash grants are more effective in Transfers vs. Matching improving business survival, performance (measured by turnover, profit, productivity, and inno- Grants for Job vation), youth employment, job creation and job consolidation. We provide matching grants and Creation in MSMEs cash grants to Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in an agribusiness growth pole in Burkina Faso. The grant recipients are divided into three distinct groups. Grant applicants are randomly assigned to a group of MSMEs that receive matching grants only, another group of MSMEs that receive cash grants only, and a third of MSMEs that neither receive matching nor cash grants (the control group). TF0A2983 Improving Access to Hypothesis 1: lack of access to lumpy investments is among key impediments to higher produc- Markets through Rural tivity in rural Nicaragua; Roads Rehabilitation Hypothesis 2: aspirational deficit further impedes investment and higher productivity; in Nicaragua – Hypothesis 3: provision of savings accounts and incentives to save (matched grants) has more Overcoming Additional sustainable impact on accumulation of lumpy sums and their subsequent investments than Constraints cash grants; Hypothesis 4: large incentives to save early decreasing over time are better able to form habits among micro-entrepreneurs with poor self-control and go along with larger productivity impacts relative to incentives that are constant over time. TF0A0739 CCT Plus: Combining The main hypothesis is about whether a 1 year intervention can have long term sustainable conditional cash effects. We focus on 3 areas: transfers, vocational 1. Can short-term programs combining cash transfers with interventions specifically targeting training and busi- vocational skills and business asset accumulation lead to positive income dynamics and pro- ness grants – long ductivity gains? term evaluation of a 2. Can impacts on cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes in early childhood facilitate school-to- randomized trial in work transition and increase prospects of more productive employment? Nicaragua 3. Can interventions targeted at human capital and asset accumulation by women contribute to sustainable empowerment and productive inclusion? 75 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF Number Project Name Impact Evaluation Hypothesis TF0A0831 Lebanon; Jordan; 1. a) Do coding bootcamps impact the employability of youth? To what degree? Colombia; Kenya: 1. b) Do coding bootcamps impact the salary levels of youth? To what degree? Technology and 2. a) Do coding bootcamps impact the employment opportunities of low-income/low-skilled Entrepreneurship youth? e.g. leapfrogging from a janitor position to a junior developer position. Rapid Skills Training 2. b) Do coding bootcamps impact the education opportunities of low-income/low-skilled for Youth Employment youth? e.g. having access to a university degree after the bootcamp. 3. a) Do students gain socio-emotional skills (measured as grit and personal effectiveness) from coding bootcamps? 3. b) Do students that demonstrate higher levels of socio-emotional skills (measured as grit and personal effectiveness) obtain better outcomes in the labor market and in their career development? TF0A0999 Public Works and In Comoros the impact evaluation will test the hypothesis that public work programs which Welfare: Randomized include cash grants encourage women to be involved in micro-entrepreneurship (assumption: key Control Trials in binding constraint is seed capital. In Tunisia the IE will test the hypothesis that participants and Tunisia and Comoros non-participants fare differently as a result of their participation in a labor intensive program. The impact evaluation will answer the following: (1) What are the direct effects of temporary employment cash-for-work program on social and economic outcomes of poor households? (2) What are the effects of the productive infrastructure created as part of the program on socioeco- nomic outcomes in recipient communities? And (3) Does the timing of support in the short-term cash-for-work program increase the likelihood of stable employment and livelihoods? TF0A2864 Liberia Youth Hypothesis 1: Youth in Liberia are capital-constrained and this limits their ability to effectively Opportunities IE - data pursue self-employment and entrepreneurship. Hypothesis 2: Youth in Liberia have low levels of skills and this limits their ability to effectively pursue self-employment and entrepreneurship. Hypotheses 3: Female youth in Liberia face social, cultural and self-agency barriers and this limits their ability to effectively pursue self-employment and entrepreneurship TF0A2866 Madagascar: This impact evaluation evaluates the impact of interventions (“productive spaces” and “behav- Evaluating Scalable ioral nudges”) accompanying a cash for work program targeting poor households living in rural Productive Safety Net Madagascar on beneficiaries’ productivity and welfare. “Productive Spaces” theory of change Innovations dictates that proving beneficiaries with the time and knowledge to create and grow productive microenterprises will enhance their productivity. The “nudges” theory of change is that by taking advantage of the framing of certain features of the cash for work program, we can influence beneficiaries’ subsequent actions, allowing them to overcome behavioral challenges that might prevent them from realizing increased productivity as a result of participating in the program. TF0A2927 Ghana National The impact evaluation aims to quantify the economic and social returns to Apprenticeships in Apprenticeship Ghana. The main outcomes of interest are employment (formal vs. informal employment), earn- Program IE ings, self-employment profits, migration, and other labor market outcomes such as hours of work and migration. The IE will also examine whether the results vary by individual, characteristics such as gender, socio-economic status, baseline cognitive and non-cognitive test scores. As the placement of apprentices to firms was randomized, the IE will also explore whether the returns to training vary by trainer characteristics TF0A0989 Democratic Republic In Honduras the impact evaluation will test labor market readiness program targeting at-risk youth of Congo; Honduras; aged 18-25 who are neither studying nor strongly attached to the labor market (the At-Risk Youth Mexico: Soft Skills, Temporary Jobs Program). In DRC the impact evaluation will examine the effects of a labor-inten- Personality Traits and sive public works project and incentivized saving and vocational training on economic, social, and Jobs in FCV psychological outcomes of poor urban populations in a conflict prone setting. Specifically it will test the following hypotheses (1) Assuming that the opportunity cost of being engaged in labor intensive public works (LIPW) is sufficiently low, our hypothesis is that LIPW benefits increase short-term income and that those program activities increase social indicators (2) Assuming imperfect factor markets and incomplete provision of public services, we hypothesize that the extended training program increases human capital, social cohesion, psychological well-being and decreases illegal activities (3) Assuming savings and/or behavioral constraints, we hypothesize an increase in savings (4) Assuming both savings constraints and imperfect factor markets, we hypothesize that the combination of LIPW, the extended training program and the savings program increases both economic and social indicators 76 ANNEX D TF Number Project Name Impact Evaluation Hypothesis TF0A2453 Public Works The impact evaluation will test the following hypotheses- H1: Short-term cash-for-work employ- and Welfare: A ment will have positive direct effects on the economic outcomes of the participating households. Randomized Control [These effects may include consumption/food security, income, employment/employability, Trial of Egypt’s reduced use of detrimental coping strategies and productive investment of the additional income.] Emergency Labor- H2: Community infrastructure will have positive effects on economic development of recipi- Intensive Investment ent communities beyond direct employment and income effects. H3: Short-term cash-for-work Project employment and community infrastructure will have positive effects on social outcomes. H4: Short-term cash-for-work employment will have positive effects on psychological outcomes. TF0A2892 Tajikistan The project tests the hypothesis that performance based contracts for business advisory ser- Performance Based vices providers (BAS) can improve jobs outcomes for SMEs accessing the line of credit vis-à-vis Approach to BAS standard contracts. Provision TF0A1854 The direct and spillover Hypothesis 1: Business training for women can increase their income and well-being. impacts of business Hypothesis 2: This growth for female businesses can come without just taking away business training and mentoring from competitors. of female entrepre- Hypothesis 3: Mentoring strengthens the impact of business training neurs: experimental evidence from Kenya 77 ANNEX E: PROGRESS REPORTING ON ALL GRANTS—BY WINDOW ANNEX E WINDOW 1: JOBS DIAGNOSTICS, STRATEGIES, AND OPERATIONS As of end-January, this window had approximately $13.3 million allocated to 41 activities. TF0A0731 | Côte d’Ivoire jobs analytics COUNTRY / REGION: Côte d’Ivoire TTL: Patrick Premand OBJECTIVE: To support (i) follow up data collection among firms for the ongoing, large-scale randomized impact evaluation of apprenticeships–which provide the most common source of skills acquisition for the large informal sector in the economy, yet for whom the evidence base remains very thin; and (ii) the collection of complementary data and implementation of new analysis in areas where existing data and evidence is relatively limited for a Jobs Diagnostic. APPROACH: The grant finances the following activities: (i) the follow up survey for the apprenticeship impact evaluation; (ii) the collection of data on the dynamics of firms and job creation in the formal sector; and (iii) improved data capture and productivity patterns in agriculture. PROGRESS: All activities have been completed. Activities informed the Côte d’Ivoire Jobs Diagnostic report and contributed towards an apprenticeship impact evaluation in Côte d’Ivoire. TF0A0781 | Big data analysis for new evidence based answers on the impact of labor and vocational training programs and the role of firms’ dynamics: Follow up research work on skills and jobs in Brazil COUNTRY / REGION: Brazil TTL: Joana Silva OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of welfare and vocational training programs on learning and earnings. APPROACH: The grant finances the drafting of three research papers on (i) the impact of vocational education and training for the poor (Pronatec-SENAI) on employability and wages of graduates, focusing on heterogeneity across course modalities and workers and firms’ characteristics; (ii) the benchmarking of Brazil with Turkey and other middle income countries in linking firms’ characteristics to employment creation (including, the role of gazelles); and (iii) improving the employability of the poorest youth, 79 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 assessing whether higher insertion in labor markets / employability is more a matter of higher qualifications or better local labor markets. This research is being conducted in partnership with think tanks and the government using the rarely available matched employer-employee panel data. These topics are of particular policy interest in Brazil as the economy faces negative growth and fiscal constraint which will challenge the momentum of the prior decade of expansion of employment, wages and formality. PROGRESS: A draft of the paper on vocational education and training of the poor was presented at the LACEA- Labor conference, March 17, 2016. The paper was revised and expanded based on comments from the conference. Restrictions in data access have delayed the implementation of the paper on benchmarking, but progress was made after gaining access to data from Brazil’s Institute of Statistics confidentiality room. The paper on youth employment is on track and a first draft was created. A revised version is now being prepared. TF0A0782 | Improving the quality of informal jobs in Bangladesh COUNTRY / REGION: Bangladesh TTL: Yoonyoung Cho OBJECTIVE: To identify which aspects of formality employees desire most and employers might be willing to provide, in the context of Bangladesh, thus shedding light on whether it would be valuable and feasible to extend specific aspects of formality to informal jobs. APPROACH: This grant finances a matched employer-employee survey in Bangladesh’s informal sector building on two existing surveys. The specific activities include (i) designing and piloting survey instruments; (ii) conducting the survey; (iii) analyzing survey results; (iv) producing journal articles and a policy brief; and (v) disseminating findings. PROGRESS: RAND, working closely with Bangladesh Institute for Governance and Development (BIGD) at BRAC University, have been contracted to carry out the survey. Questionnaire design, sampling, and fieldwork has been completed and the data files have been submitted. A matched employer-employee survey is also being carried out, to examine policy questions of interest. 80 ANNEX E TF0A0783 | Measuring job quality COUNTRY / REGION: Turkey TTL: Hulya Ulku OBJECTIVE: To support Doing Business in developing a new set of indicators to provide quantitative measures on the quality of employment, including (i) broadening the consultation process with various constituencies to ensure the most relevant dimensions of job quality are being captured and captured well, and (ii) supporting analytical work using this data. APPROACH: The grant will help finance the development of a completely new Job Quality Framework as part of the Doing Business Report. It would cover four areas: (i) hiring framework (e.g. equal work and remuneration policies), (ii) working framework (e.g. hours, leave, and work-life balance), (iii) social protection framework (e.g. health and safety, pensions, and non-contributory schemes), and (iv) workplace relations framework (e.g. labor courts). In addition to providing policy makers with a more comprehensive view of the elements of good jobs, this effort allows better assessment of the right balance between the flexibility of labor markets and the availability of job benefits and social protection schemes. Therefore, it will also address some of the concerns stemming from earlier “Employing Workers” data. In particular, the grant finances (i) the examination of the different dimensions of job quality and refines the questions on job quality; (ii) a workshop bringing together academics, NGOs, labor union representatives, the UN, OECD, and government officials to discuss the sub-indicators of labor market regulation index of Doing Business; (iii) a case study examining this new dimension of the labor market index; and (iv) the dissemination of the findings. PROGRESS: All activities have been completed. The team examined the different dimensions of jobs quality and refined the questions on job quality. The case study on the new dimension of the Labor Market Regulation index is published in the Doing Business 2017 Report. The findings were disseminated widely through global launches of the report in Washington DC, East Asia, Europe, Latin America and other countries. TF0A0791 | Labor market big data analysis for skills forecast and improved matching COUNTRY / REGION: India TTL: Shinsaku Nomura OBJECTIVE: To work with Babajobs–an Indian on-line job matching service–and (i) use big data to analyze and forecast the trends in skill demand and (ii) evaluate the potential impact of reducing information gaps between job seekers and employers on improving job-matching in both the formal and informal labor markets. 81 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 APPROACH: The grant finances the following activities: (i) analyzing existing data from the job matching online platform, Babajobs, to understand the patterns of skill demand and supply and to develop a forecasting model; (ii) conducting an impact evaluation on improving the effectiveness of job matching by upgrading data collection instruments; and (iii) disseminating analytical results through multi-stakeholder workshops and assessing replicability of the model for other countries. PROGRESS: Implementation is underway. The analysis of the data gained from Babajobs was completed and a subsequent report has been submitted for publication under the Policy Research Working Paper Series. The team is now working on three other research papers. Progress on the impact evaluation was delayed due to a technical problem, but pilot data collection has completed and the team has started implementing the survey. TF0A0808 | Access to skills and vocational training in Kenya COUNTRY / REGION: Kenya TTL: Dino Leonardo Merotto OBJECTIVE: To assess the demand for skills and generate the necessary evidence on the current and future demands of the private sector in Kenya, with the goal of optimizing the design of related government policies and private sector investments. These policies and investments will target strategic sectors and improve the effectiveness of employment activation mechanisms for the most vulnerable groups. APPROACH: The grant finances the following activities: (i) carrying out a Skills Towards Employability and Productivity Assessment (STEP) survey to gather information on skills used, skills demanded, training, and remuneration; and (ii) identifying current and potential vocational training institutes in Kenya that would qualify for future IFC investments and analyzing the training they provide in order to match it with previously identified employer needs. PROGRESS: For the STEP Employer Survey, the implementing firm has completed field work and the data has been cleaned. For the mapping of training providers, the team is collecting the data and preparing the report, which is currently in its last stages. 82 ANNEX E TF0A0816 | Global micro database COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Joao Pedro, David Newhouse, and Kinnon Scott OBJECTIVE: To construct a new Global Micro Database that integrates two separate, existing databases: the Global Poverty Working Group (GPWG) database–which provides inputs into the Bank’s official poverty statistics published on the World Development Indicators and PovCalNet websites–and the International Income Distribution Database (I2D2)–which grew out of the World Development Reports on Inequality and on jobs, containing harmonized versions of 50 variables for 1200 surveys, including a large number of labor variables. APPROACH: The grant finances work to identify surveys that are common to both databases; accelerate their integration; harmonize variables from I2D2 labor force surveys in a format consistent with the new Global Micro Database; and thoroughly document the construction of the new database. The resulting product will allow any Bank analyst to quickly and flexibly compare labor market outcomes for the poor and bottom 40 percent across any number of countries. PROGRESS: Solid advances have been made in integrating the I2D2 data with the Global Micro Database, but work is still ongoing. Coding for both databases have been harmonized and I2D2 source data has been altered to use the latest version of the raw data, when possible. A majority of the new surveys and variables have also been added to the combined database. TF0A0832 | Tackling CARE: innovative approaches for private sector companies and policymakers to retain (female) talent COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Carmen Niethammer OBJECTIVE: To build evidence on the business case for providing gender-smart care services at the workplace and develop practical approaches the private sector can adopt for their enactment. Many private sector initiatives targeted at women are carried out as Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives and are not designed from a business point-of-view, thus, compromising their scale and sustainability. APPROACH: This grant finances the following activities: (i) the development of 10 gender-smart business case studies and a report on “Tackling Childcare”; (ii) the identification of policies that help incentivize private sector-supported care services—including 10 country highlights, desk research on 50 83 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 economies, the integration of child care questions in the Women, Business and the Law (WBL) survey instrument, a policy note, and the coverage of childcare in the WBL 2018 Report; and (iii) the convening of a high-level working group on putting principles into action and disseminating findings. The project leverages IFC’s partnership with Care.com–a publicly listed company that helps families and businesses find child, senior and special needs care in 16 countries. Care.com is a member of the IFC-led SheWorks private sector partnership, launched by WBG President Jim Yong Kim at the Clinton Global Initiative, which aims to increase employment opportunities for more than 300,000 women globally. PROGRESS: For the public policy research component, desk research has been completed and survey questions have been tested, resulting in a refined childcare survey instrument. Numerous general survey questions will be carried out in 100 economies. Questions on tax benefits of childcare payments and funding for private childcare will be implemented in 189 economies. WBL has developed and delivered seven of the ten country specific highlights. A WBG working group has also been established and meets regularly. Additionally, IFC launched the Tackling Childcare Partnership of 11 companies and 6 partners at the Clinton Global Initiative Annual Meeting in September 2016. TF0A0858 | Morocco: impact evaluation of micro-entrepreneurship for disadvantaged youth in the informal sector COUNTRY / REGION: Morocco TTL: Bernard Aritua OBJECTIVE: To support an Impact Evaluation of the Morocco Strengthening Micro-Entrepreneurship for Disadvantaged Youth Project. Using rigorous methodology, the evaluation will provide new evidence on the effect of targeted entrepreneurship training for disadvantaged youth on the development of entrepreneurial skills and attitudes, probability of starting and expanding a business, and income generation and job creation, among a series of additional outcomes. APPROACH: The grant finances (i) the end-line survey for the evaluation; (ii) additional data collection to identify peer-learning effects through the analysis of network and spillover effects; and (ii) additional data collection for enhancing evaluation design. PROGRESS: Impact evaluation is currently ongoing and the baseline survey has been completed, covering treatment and control groups. The baseline survey report is also available. Due to unexpected control group related challenges, the planned RCT research design was adjusted to include a mixed methods approach, including a tracer- method. The final objective of conducting an evaluation, including the collection of endline and peer learning data will be achieved. 84 ANNEX E TF0A0859 | Roads to jobs: accelerating the development impact of roads in Rajasthan, India COUNTRY / REGION: India TTL: Bernard Aritua OBJECTIVE: (i) To assess the impact of the development corridors approach on specific value chains and the potential to improve the income prospects of rural farmers and (ii) better understand job creation opportunities in ancillary areas that will emerge along the value chains. This activity leverages a larger effort to develop a structured approach for accelerating the impact of transport infrastructure on job creation and economic opportunities. It will support projects in rural roads (some $413 million in Rajasthan) and an ongoing Non-Lending Technical Assistance program (Accelerating the Impact of Transport through a Market-led Approach) with the aim to provide a model that can be replicated and scaled up in similar contexts. APPROACH: The grant finances the following activities: (i) Identification of gaps and interventions that impact the potential for job creation along a specific value chain; (ii) identification of best practices and models to improve farmer productivity within the value chain; and (iii) development of a rigorous and replicable framework for M&E of interventions that link investment in rural roads to jobs. PROGRESS: The reports on regulatory and investment enablers that can increase private sector involvement and unlock job creation opportunities were completed and presented to the Government of Rajasthan. The Government of Rajasthan has agreed to monitor and evaluate the jobs dimension in an integrated manner. Via the Jobs MDTF , the team has also been able to get Government acceptance to restructure an investment project to include the jobs dimension, which is not usually the focus of rural roads investment projects. TF0A0882 | Strengthening jobs data in Vietnam COUNTRY / REGION: Vietnam TTL: Gabriel Demombynes and Mauro Testaverde OBJECTIVE: To assist the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, upon their request, in strengthening the collection and analysis of Labor Force Survey (LFS) data. The survey was initiated on a quarterly basis in 2011 and is an extremely rich source of information which been greatly underutilized. APPROACH: The grant finances a combination of analytical work and technical assistance to make the LFS of greater use for policymakers. Activities include the following: (i) producing a note reviewing labor market trends and providing specific analysis on key labor market policy issues based on existing 85 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 LFS data; (ii) designing an analytical template that can be used by the Government to prepare labor market reports based on future LFS data; (iii) providing technical assistance to the General Statistics Office on methodological improvements to the LFS, expanding public dissemination of the LFS, and linking the LFS to existing enterprise survey data to create a matched worker-firm data set; and (iv) providing technical assistance to the Government of Vinh Phuc province on jobs issues. PROGRESS: A Labor Market Trends Note based on LFS data has been completed. Revision of this note for working paper publication is underway. TF0A0883 | Public transport access and labor market success evaluation in Chinese cities COUNTRY / REGION: China TTL: Yuhui Jiao OBJECTIVE: To (i) expand the knowledge base and understanding of how public transport access is associated with labor market outcomes in Chinese cities (including quality of jobs and job satisfaction) and (ii) promote consideration of mismatches between employment locations and “job-housing” during public transport investment planning. APPROACH: The grant finances the following activities: (i) identification of major public transport investments in several Chinese cities; (ii) collection and analysis of data on income, employment status, job satisfaction and travel patterns of people along selected public transport investments; (iii) evaluation of labor market impacts of selected urban transport projects; and (iv) integration of research outputs into local strategies through dissemination workshops and policy dialogue. PROGRESS: Draft reports of the data regression analysis are under review. Consultants are completing the data analysis in pilot cities Beijing and Urumqi. TF0A0979 | Job creation and informality reduction in Turkey COUNTRY / REGION: Turkey TTL: Ximena Del Carpio OBJECTIVE: To (i) better understand Turkey’s positive experience in job creation and rapid decline in informality by measuring the effects of distinct policies and initiatives; (ii) extend an important emerging line of inquiry—the role of firm quality and management—in a developing context, to find how internal firm performance relates to productivity and employment; and (iii) ascertain how stable the effects 86 ANNEX E of these changes are in the longer run, whether further changes need to be made, and what lessons from Turkey can serve as an example to the rest of the world. APPROACH: The grant finances the measurement of the following: i) the impact of various activities outlined in the two informality reduction plans of 2005 and 2009 on employment (formal and flexible) and quality of jobs, across distinct labor groups (youth, and women); ii) how firms cope with increases in labor costs—increases in minimum wage and legally mandated benefits, including social security—and whether they change their workforce composition and/or increase their technology adoption; and iii) the relationship between quality of firm management, workforce composition, and the quality of jobs. PROGRESS: All data work is underway. The first dissemination event for a draft paper on informality was held in late January. TF0A1438 | Data, diagnostics, and institutional innovations for jobs in Ecuador COUNTRY / REGION: Ecuador TTL: Sergio Daniel Olivieri OBJECTIVE: To enhance policy-making to improve labor market efficiency–specifically, the inclusion of the poor and vulnerable — by improving data, job diagnostics, and institutional innovations in Ecuador. APPROACH: The grant finances a more holistic approach to understanding jobs dynamics through the following activities (i) strengthening the National Institute of Statistics and Census’ capacity to generate comprehensive labor market statistics by adding more administrative datasets and creating a prototype public portal to disseminate key statistics (including elements of the labor demand side) and (ii) enhancing labor market analysis and diagnostics. PROGRESS: Implementation is underway. TF0A1622 | Strategic directions in jobs COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Siddhartha Raja OBJECTIVE: To generate new global knowledge that informs jobs-related analytical and investment activities in four areas of focus: i) private sector jobs creation, ii) obstacles to jobs creation presented by 87 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 informality, iii) factor that lead to different jobs outcomes for men, women and youth and iv) particular challenges to job creation in fragile and conflicted states. APPROACH: The grant finances the production of four key analytical products in areas of strategic importance: (i) private sector-led job creation (expanding access to markets, raising firm productivity, and promoting entrepreneurship); (ii) informality (increasing productivity, earnings, and quality of jobs in the informal sector); (iii) spatial mismatches (addressing spatial barriers that separate people from jobs and affect labor mobility across regions and between sectors); and (iv) technology (harnessing the power of ICT to expand access to and develop new markets, raise productivity, and connect employers and workers). PROGRESS: A major conference on urbanization and jobs was held in May 2016. Papers have also been drafted on topics such as technology and jobs and urbanization and value chains. More reports are in progress. The scope of some activities was revised to reflect changes in strategic priorities, including the addition of a Fragility, Conflict, and Violence theme. TF0A2966 | Improving the jobs impact of the industrial development of the Yangtze River economic belt COUNTRY / REGION: China TTL: Achim Daniel Schmillen OBJECTIVE: To improve the number and quality of jobs created in the process of relocating industries from China’s coastal provinces to inland areas of the country, in particular along the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). APPROACH: The objective will be achieved by designing and implementing of a jobs matching component of the WBG’s YREB Industrial Relocation Demonstration Project and designing an impact evaluation of the intervention and conducting a baseline. This will help provide labor exchange and employment services to facilitate the matching between labor supply and demand and support the development of relevant skills. The design, implementation and evaluation of the intervention will be based on a diagnostic of specific jobs challenges that will emerge from the relocation of industries along the Yangtze River. PROGRESS: The diagnostic of jobs challenges in the region is underway and will help inform the design and implementation of the jobs component. However, further progress is dependent on the selection of the pilot city, which is ongoing under the WBG’s YREB Industrial Relocation Demonstration Project. 88 ANNEX E TF0A2275 | Microenterprise supply intermediation in Colombia COUNTRY / REGION: Colombia/LAC TTL: David J. McKenzie OBJECTIVE: To test the impact of technology that shortens supply chains for small vendors by aggregating their orders and cutting out the middleman. The activity will look at how this affects vendors’ travel times, prices, and firm incomes. APPROACH: The grant will finance the impact evaluation of this program, funding a field assistant, survey team, and other costs associated with the impact evaluation. The activity will cover the implementation of one pilot, collection of data on 1000 individuals, 3 rounds of surveys, 1 evaluation report and working paper, presented in at least 3 events/seminars, and 1 policy brief produced and shared with policymakers. While there is no gender-specific intervention, the sample is 32 percent female. The activity will also examine whether there is heterogeneity in take up and impact on gender. PROGRESS: Baseline surveys have been implemented (on 1635 firms). The activity is now planned for 5 rounds of high-frequency follow-up surveys, 1 six-month follow-up survey, and a 12-month follow-up. These are on a rotating basis, with some blocks having just finished the baseline and others undertaking the 6-month follow-up. The pilot is underway, with more than 300 customers for the new product so far, and short-term follow-up surveys are in progress. TF0A2640 | GENIE broadband for development program COUNTRY / REGION: Georgia TTL: Thomas Edward Haven OBJECTIVE: To deepen the jobs impact of a new World Bank project focused on technology adoption and to generate robust evidence to inform policy globally. A unique impact evaluation (IE) will be conducted to significantly improve understanding of the implications of information and communication technology (ICT) adoption and e-commerce on the growth of and job creation by firms. APPROACH: The grant will engage with global expertise to design what is likely the first RCT on the topic of technology adoption and its impacts on job creation, helping the team overcome the lack of models or literature to build upon. It will then design, implement, and analyze the results of a baseline survey for the RCT. Subsequently, it will provide technical assistance to the Government of Georgia to 89 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 translate the results of the survey and evaluation, as well as in the design of the wider set of policies and investments that could maximize the jobs impacts related to the Internet-enabled economy. At the activities conclusion there will be a widespread dissemination of results of the pilot and IE, thereby building on the findings of the World Development Report 2016 (WDR16, on Digital Dividends), and potentially shaping future WBG engagements PROGRESS: Significant advancement has been made with the design of the RCT, which has involved deep discussion with Georgia’s Innovation and Technology Association (GITA) due to the unique nature of the activity as well as the need for capacity building of the Client. Critically, this Grant has allowed the team and Client to continue work on the “broadband for development” (BFD) program in spite of (government) budget issues. Grant activities are proceeding as planned. Initial analysis of empirical data is underway, and results of that work will be disseminated in mid-2017 . The baseline survey - to be funded by the Grant - is scheduled for Summer 2017 . Activities have been delayed, however, due to delays in the overall implementation of the IBRD Project (GENIE) to which this RCT is linked. Those delays are primarily to do with limited budget allocations (by the Government of Georgia) for Project expenditures in both Budget Year 2016 (BY2016) and BY2017 , i.e. until December 2017 . Hence, the progress with implementation of the grant has been slower than expected, although all planned activities under the Grant will be completed. TF0A2670 | Youth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopia COUNTRY / REGION: Ethiopia TTL: Ruth Hill OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the first phase of Ethiopia’s pioneering urban safety net project, generating knowledge on i) the spatial integration of large urban labor markets, ii) targeting of youth entrepreneurship programs, and iii) alternatives to improve matching in wage employment. APPROACH: Through a rigorous impact evaluation exercise, the study will inform the scale up of the program by exploring if using data-based and community based-targeting enhances the effects of the self- employment support (compared to just self-selection) and by analyzing how cash grants (particularly for women) and a third party certification help job seekers to overcome the spatial mismatch of jobs and firms in the wage-employment support. The project will also help to understand how well the low skilled local labor markets are integrated in large cities, a key issue to determine the design of the project and any other policy interventions aimed at lowering unemployment. Finally, the lessons learned from these interventions, as well as from the direct and indirect effects of the public works program, will be very valuable for similar project in other cities of the region and globally. 90 ANNEX E PROGRESS: The implementation of the project being evaluated is delayed by about a year which has affected the delivery of proposed outputs under this grant. However, the impact evaluation strategy has been finalized successfully, and the team has worked in close collaboration with the implementing agency for the randomization of the project roll-out among the woredas of Addis Ababa. The collection of the baseline data -for the evaluation of the public works component- (funded by the project but supervised using resources from the grant) is currently underway, and is estimated to be completed by March 2017 . The roll out of the project is planned for summer of 2017. At the same time, the team is conducting feasibility assessments for the interventions related to the livelihoods component, such as the effectiveness of cash grants for self-employment and to the high search costs for wage employment, which are planned to start one year after the initial roll-out (summer 2018). TF0A2832 | Improving jobs of smallholder women farmers COUNTRY / REGION: Mozambique TTL: Joao H. C. Montalvao Machado OBJECTIVE: To identify, through rigorous research, effective policies that can address underlying economic and social gender inequality in Africa, and increase the take-up of these policies by the government and the private sector. This Grant will focus on generating knowledge about whether and how non-cognitive entrepreneurial skills help women smallholder farmers participate in male-dominated high-value agricultural value chains in Mozambique; the work will be done through the Gender Innovation Lab (GIL). The project seeks to develop, implement, and rigorously measure the impact of a new intervention that will supply smallholder women farmers with both skills and cash grants. The intervention seeks to deepen the impact of a feeder road rehabilitation program led by an active WB project in Mozambique. APPROACH: The intervention seeks to deepen the impact of a feeder road rehabilitation program led by an active WB project in Mozambique. It will develop, implement, and rigorously measure the impact of a new intervention that will supply smallholder women farmers with both skills and cash grants. It will generate evidence on the importance of infrastructure, skills and capital for women farmers access to markets, thereby providing the necessary evidence to conclude on the importance of these factors for agribusiness development in northern Mozambique. The project includes an impact evaluation that will use a rigorous randomized control trial approach to measure the effects of the gender related interventions. PROGRESS: Progress has been made on several fronts. Firstly, the finalization of the impact evaluation baseline data collection, cleaning, and basic statistical analysis is complete. Secondly, the team has presented preliminary findings from the baseline survey to the Government and at the internal gender and 91 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 development seminar series. Thirdly, finalization of the terms of reference for the implementation of the intervention targeted to women in rural areas is complete, and the procurement process has started. TF0A2893 | Access to jobs in large urban areas in Haiti COUNTRY / REGION: Haiti TTL: Nancy Lozano Gracia OBJECTIVE: To support analytical work that will contribute to better understanding the challenges in terms of access to jobs and connectivity in large urban areas in Haiti. APPROACH: The grant financed activity complements the broader analysis under the World Bank Group’s Haiti Urbanization Review that aims at providing insights on key challenges and opportunities that the urbanization process bring to Haiti. The work under this grant is expected to inform the growing urban portfolio in Haiti provides a unique opportunity for applying these diagnostic tools in the context of the preparation of the US$37 .5 Municipal Development and Urban Resilience project in the Cap-Haitien metropolitan area. The diagnostics are expected to inform design of the project including a) identification of technical assistance in metropolitan planning and municipal capacity building b) strategic investments and interventions to remove the barriers to accessing jobs such as improved connectivity; affordable housing policies; and planning tools that would allow job centers to emerge in residential areas; and c) interventions to improve coordination between housing, transport and planning policies. PROGRESS: While the work is well underway, political instability has prevented close discussions with government officials that were initially planned for November, 2016. Such discussions have been postponed to February, after the new government has taken office. The preparation of the Cap- Haitien project is advancing in parallel and the teams are working closely, with the TTL for the urban project being part of the core team of the UR, to ensure cross fertilization of the analytics and the project design. In terms of delivery of knowledge products, the team has completed two technical notes that have been approved for submission to the World Bank working paper series. Finally, the team has been working closely with Flowminder and Digicel, the largest cell phone provider in Haiti. Through a partnership where an internationally recognized NGO (flowminder) works on the Call Detailed Records (CDR) under strict confidentiality agreements with the cell phone provider, the team has been able to conduct important analysis of the cell phone data. 92 ANNEX E TF0A2900 | Entrepreneurship pilot to promote economic opportunities for Jordanians and Syrians COUNTRY / REGION: Jordan TTL: Aminur Rahman OBJECTIVE: To design, implement, and rigorously evaluate the impact of an entrepreneurship pilot to vitalize the Jordanian economy. The pilot will promote innovative entrepreneurship opportunities to both Jordanians and Syrians in order to create jobs, increase refugees’ contribution to the host economy, and incubate the future post-conflict Syrian economy in Jordan. APPROACH: The pilot aims to promote entrepreneurship and create jobs through an entrepreneurship package (consisting of seed-funding and necessary business development training) along with some innovative interventions, such as promoting business networking among Jordanians and Syrians entrepreneurs (current and potential), facilitating access to new markets through ecommerce platforms, providing business incubation opportunities, and facilitating freedom of mobility to set-up and conduct business in economically viable locations. This pilot will have significant bearing on youth and gender: over half of Syrian refugees are female and 81% are below age 35; Jordan has one of the highest youth unemployment in the region with the female youth unemployment rate of 51% compared with male youth unemployment rate of 27%. The innovative interventions under this pilot will be rigorously evaluated and the successful interventions could be scaled up as part of Jordan’s holistic approach to address the Syrian Refugee Crisis. PROGRESS: Two entrepreneurship interventions have been identified and validated. The scoping exercise and preparatory activities to design and implement these have been completed. These activities include stakeholder consultations, literature review and methodology design, and finding potential partners to design and implement the pilot. The research team and project implementation team have also been put in place including the recruitment of field coordinators. The research design and methodology for rigorous impact evaluation to evaluate the effects of these entrepreneurship interventions on firm performance and job creation have also been completed. 93 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF0A2901 | Lebanon subsidized temporary employment program (capital for private jobs) COUNTRY / REGION: Lebanon TTL: Haneen Ismail Sayed; Peter Mousley OBJECTIVE: The initial objective of the grant was to implement activities that will further design and launch the new flagship employment program of the Government of Lebanon: the Subsidized Temporary Employment Program (STEP). APPROACH: The main objective of STEP is to provide incentives for private sector micro, small and medium enterprises to create jobs through measures to stimulate the demand for jobs (firm level) and connect workers to those jobs (individual level). The STEP program will aim to test the potential to complement public sector works initiatives with a private sector one focused on non-distortionary job creation through targeted financing to MSME. i) market assessment of the private sector: to help understand the constraints firm face in expanding output and creating jobs and design activities to overcome those constraints; ii) setting up of a robust Management Information System to register, monitor and track activities and beneficiaries; iii) designing a strong M&E as well as an Impact Evaluation (e.g. baseline and follow up surveys as well as experts); and iv) activities to launch the program (e.g. workshops, communications campaign). PROGRESS: Two key deliverables are underway. One is the analysis of MSME market demand including the full market assessment - for which the supply side has been drafted and the demand-side will be launched within the next month; and the analysis of the construction value chain analysis to commence in Quarter 3. The other is the design of the impact evaluation of the matching grant scheme of STEP . TF0A2965 | Deepening the jobs impact of the public works programs through capital injection and social network stimulation: a randomized control trial in Eastern DRC COUNTRY / REGION: DRC TTL: Eric Mvukiyehe OBJECTIVE: To support an impact evaluation of a key sub component of the WBG’s Eastern DRC Recovery Project that will provide livelihood support through labor-intensive public works (LIPW) in five major cities in Eastern DRC. The project aims are to strengthen resilience and welfare of vulnerable 94 ANNEX E populations in conflict-ridden communities through a wide range of interventions, including a labor intensive public work program, community driven development support and agricultural value chain development. APPROACH: This grant will support a rigorous impact evaluation of the labor intensive public works subcomponent, which creates short-term employment opportunities for unemployed unskilled and semi-skilled workers (including youth at risk) as well as capital injection add-on intervention. This study will provide much-needed evidence whether workfare programs carried out alone or in combination with other interventions effectively reduce poverty among populations affected by violent conflict. PROGRESS: Thus far, the grant has been used to prepare for the eventual Impact Evaluation, which is planned to start at the end of this year and will be completed in 2018. This is because the implementation can only begin once the project intervention is complete. TF0A2967 | Promoting women’s livelihoods & opportunities in select value chains COUNTRY / REGION: Afghanistan/South Asia TTL: Shubha Chakravarty OBJECTIVE: To improve knowledge and results with respect to promoting income generation and increasing the engagement of women in rural and peri-urban areas of Afghanistan through entrepreneurship and select value chains. APPROACH: The grant financing will be used to provide technical assistance via a value chain approach. Pilots would be conducted in one or two select provinces encompassing the following specific components: (i) Gender-sensitive value chains identification in the carpet sector, diagnostics, and action planning; (ii) Piloting value chain-centered approaches to women’s economic empowerment (formation of networks of women producers, provision of market intermediation assistance to producers, formation of three-way partnership arrangements between producers, buyers, and delivery of training and ongoing assistance to producers); and (iii) evaluation, documentation, and policy learning. PROGRESS: Significant progress has been made in initial preparation. A team has been assembled which includes gender and private sector expertise. A detailed Terms of Reference for the bulk of pilot activities has been designed, and a competitive firm has been completed. A qualified NGO- Turquoise Mountain- has been retained to undertake the activities. Turquoise Mountain will work in partnership with Label STEP , an experienced NGO in fair trade carpet certification and retailing. 95 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF0A2968 | Cash transfers vs. matching grants for job creation in MSMEs COUNTRY / REGION: Burkina Faso TTL: Martin Maxwell Norman OBJECTIVE: To compare the traditional matching grants program with a cash transfer program in the Bagre Region of Burkina Faso through an impact evaluation in order to determine which intervention is more effective in creating jobs. APPROACH: This activity will compare the job-creating impact of the current matching grants program with the job-creating impact of a new cash transfer activity in Burkina Faso’s Bagrepole Project area. This will be done by implementing a parallel cash transfer activity using the matching grants activity as a control group and conducting a posteriori impact evaluation in order to determine which intervention is more effective in creating jobs among SMEs in the agricultural value chain. It will test the hypothesis that more freedom and less cumbersome administrative of financing will foster increased innovation among SMEs. This will translate into faster growth among the SMEs receiving the cash grants and thus greater job creation as their expansion requires more personnel. PROGRESS: Thus far, the activities of this grant have focused on establishing the status quo through a field study. Simultaneously, the design of the planned impact evaluation and alternative interventions to be tested have started in the reporting period. A Project design for the cash transfers program is in an advanced stage, and it is on track to begin implementation by Q4 of FY17 . TF0A2972 | Productivity in Jordanian SME garment factories COUNTRY / REGION: Jordan TTL: Maria Soledad Requejo OBJECTIVE: The objective of the grant is increased productivity in target factories comprising the 12 existing satellite factories and 4 subcontractor factories. However, after the conclusion of this 18-month grant financed activity, in the longer-term, the interventions are expected to lead to increased profitability of these factories and ultimately to an increased share of Jordanians in the garment industry in Jordan. IFC may be able to carry out a post-implementation M&E to follow on these interesting effects. APPROACH: In conjunction with the Better Work Program in Jordan, this grant aims to address three major problems that satellite and subcontractor factories employing Jordanians face today: they do not offer good working conditions, they are not profitable and productive enough to be sustainable, and there are cultural and logistic barriers to full integration of rural Jordanian women into the industry. 96 ANNEX E The learnings from this project will be integrated in 20 new satellite factories planned. The grant financing will encompass (i) Completion of a training needs assessment; (ii) Design of toolkits; (iii) Completion of advisory services (iv) Completion of training, and (iv)Dissemination for policy discussions. PROGRESS: There has been some delay in the contractual arrangement with ILO which has led to some delay in the grant activities. However, progress has been made in Component I- the training needs assessment, with two rounds of research having been completed, related to the softer aspects of productivity. Further, progress has been made in procurement of technical consultants to conduct the remaining assessment, and then move forward with the other components. TF0A2983 | Improving access to markets through rural roads rehabilitation in Nicaragua — overcoming additional constraints COUNTRY / REGION: Nicaragua TTL: Katherine M. Scott OBJECTIVE: To generate evidence on how to effectively leverage agricultural productivity and employment through increased mobility. More specifically, to understand which complementary interventions are needed to ensure that communities benefiting from the World Bank-funded Rural Roads Rehabilitation Project fully take advantage of rehabilitated roads to search for new jobs or engage in entrepreneurship. APPROACH: The grant will support an innovative pilot which aims to improve market access for agricultural farmers and raise their productivity through value chain development in Nicaragua. The pilot adopts a two-pronged approach: (i) it examines transportation vouchers designed to enable farmers who mostly lack own transportation means and are highly cash-constrained to forego intermediaries and directly access local markets; and (ii) it investigates the extent to which financial literacy training, aimed to facilitate the opening and operation of a saving account at rural financial institutions, enhances development benefits of the temporary transportation vouchers and, importantly, make these effects sustainable. PROGRESS: To date, baseline data for the evaluation has been collected. Further, two rounds of qualitative research have been conducted to understand the effects of the rural roads project on affected communities. This has led to a redesign of the intervention to maximize impact, with a greater focus on the savings and financial literacy component. This redesign has been extensively discussed with the Jobs group and internal experts at the WBG. Finally, a field coordinator has been hired to coordinate execution of the grant in Nicaragua and ensure high quality of data. 97 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF0A2657 | Afghanistan: conflict and private sector COUNTRY / REGION: Afghanistan TTL: Gladys Lopez Acevedo OBJECTIVE: To improve the understanding of the impact of violent conflict on economic activity and job creation in Afghanistan. The proposed work will i) identify the industrial landscape in Afghanistan; ii) understand firms structure and the factors driving and constraining their growth and job creation; and iii) assess the interaction between firm dynamics and localized or general conflict. APPROACH: This work is an input to the Flagship Report in Afghanistan on Navigating Risks, and uses a novel approach of analyzing commercial mobile data to understand firm behavior in conflict-affected countries. The methodology adopts and extends recent work in the scientific literature that illustrates how data from mobile phone networks can be used to estimate the distribution of poverty and wealth in developing countries. The analysis combines mobile phone data from over 2,000 Afghan firms with data from several other sources to develop and validate new measures of firm location, size, and economic activity. Further, geocoded data on violent events is used to investigate how the Afghan private sector responds to political violence. PROGRESS: The research in on track and a clean dataset has been produced to analyze conflict and economic activity in Afghanistan. A first draft report including PowerPoints has been completed, including preliminary findings. TF0A2964 | Rural jobs: designing policies and programs for the next generation COUNTRY / REGION: Bangladesh, India TTL: Parmesh Shah OBJECTIVE: To examine the experience of selected projects from the World Bank’s rural portfolio to assess the jobs impact of these projects to gather more granular insights on what types of interventions and design features are successful in generating more and better rural jobs, and in particular jobs that are more appealing and suited to the youth and women. APPROACH: In discussion with clients, project implementation agencies, and WBG experts, three locations and projects have been chosen for the study. The locations include two states in India (Bihar and Andhra Pradesh) and Bangladesh. The three components of the study include: Aggregate/Secondary data analytics of datasets including Employment/Unemployment Surveys, ASI, Enterprises and NSS Surveys, Economic Census’, Labor Force Surveys and Industries databases; Descriptive analysis of 98 ANNEX E project areas for three locations, which will include statistical summary of socio economic conditions and enterprise enumeration; Survey design and implementation. The findings from this study will be used in the design of new instruments and investments in the ongoing rural transformation and livelihood operations and newly proposed operations in various states in India and Bangladesh. The findings will also be used to initiate new diagnostic studies in the rural space which combines household, enterprise and labor market surveys and identifies the key policy and investment options which are most effective for sustainable job creation and opportunities, particularly for youth and women. PROGRESS: The project approach and the proposed study methodology has been shared at various workshops with the clients at country level and with development partners in South Asia region. The discussions have led to the identification of the locations of analysis and proposed methodology above. Initial dissemination of grant activities and objectives has been undertaken. TF0A1957 | Jobs indicators on enterprise-level data (JIELD) COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Michael Weber OBJECTIVE: To create and provide indicators on jobs dynamics using enterprise level data to inform policymakers about job creation patterns. The grant activity will help launch a new dataset based on firm-level data: JIELD (Jobs Indicators on Enterprise-Level Data), which will address the problem of scarce firm level indicators and data on job dynamics. APPROACH: The grant activities cover the following components to cover the construction of the database and also the relevant knowledge products to help operational staff use this data:(i) Construction of JIELD database; (ii) Paper discussing how the indicators could be used to analyze an specific policy relevant issue; (iii) Report documenting the sources, definitions and limitations of the indicators constructed. PROGRESS: Samples for countries covered in the JIELD database have been constructed. The indicator development and database generation has been making progress over the reporting period. Initial issues relating to data availability and quality have been addressed and indicators are being developed and tested. 99 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 WINDOW 2: SUPPORTING JOB CREATION THROUGH THE PRIVATE SECTOR (THE LET’S WORK PROGRAM) Pillar 1: Let’s Work Country Pilots As of end-January, this Pillar of the Let’s Work window had approximately $10 million allocated to 7 countries. COUNTRY / REGION: Zambia TTL: Sudha Bala Krishnan OBJECTIVE: To assist the Government of Zambia in the implementation of its Jobs Strategy. The program is aligned with stakeholder priorities–including international finance institutions and the private sector– to promote the creation of more, better, and inclusive jobs. The aim is to develop a set of actionable proposals for investment and advisory solutions that address constraints to private sector-led job growth and labor productivity in specific sub-sectors and linked industries. These proposals will be based upon the best available evidence from past studies in addition to a comprehensive review of labor market and business dynamics, operational solutions, and value chain analysis. APPROACH: The grant finances four activities: (i) a comprehensive Jobs Diagnostic to better understand the dynamics of job creation and productivity growth at the macro and firm level, and the main incentives and constraints affecting individuals’ participation in the labor market and access to good jobs; (ii) a stock-take review of evidence of jobs potential in key sectors considered priorities by stakeholders, including Government, the WBG and Let’s Work partners, to identify potentially innovative solutions as well as interventions that have not had the expected results; (iii) value chain mapping in order to understand the types of bottlenecks and regulatory failures that would need to be removed to unlock job growth and labor productivity; and (iv) consultations with stakeholders to jointly design sector- specific strategies for jobs, identify areas for interventions, and ensure ownership of the shared jobs agenda. PROGRESS: Preliminary analysis of the Jobs Diagnostic, Jobs in Agribusiness Value Chains, and a Jobs-focused Portfolio Review of World Bank Group and Let’s Work Partner programs were conducted and the reports went through a decision meeting review. The findings were also discussed during stakeholder consultations. In November 2016, the Ministry of Labor and Social Security requested support from the Let’s Work Program with jobs-related policies and programs. At that time, the Secretary to Cabinet mandated that a Technical Advisory Group be established to focus on Jobs with Permanent Secretaries from the Jobs Office in Cabinet Office, the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, and the Ministry of National Development Planning. It’s expected that In June 2017 , the Let’s Work Zambia program will launch the final reports during a dissemination event with high-level stakeholders to discuss 100 ANNEX E prioritization of jobs-related policies and programs, particularly in light of the 7th National Development Plan, in Zambia. TF0A0229 | Let’s Work Mozambique COUNTRY: Mozambique TTL: Ian Walker OBJECTIVE: i) To promote the creation of private sector jobs through a value chain-based approach; ii) increase the productivity of jobs that already exist; and iii) help connect people to jobs. APPROACH: The grant finances four major components of the Let’s Work Mozambique work program: (i) Jobs Diagnostic and input to policy dialogue; (ii) value chain analysis; (iii) jobs pilots; and (iv) a knowledge- sharing platform for stakeholders (Government, Private Sector, and Development Partners). PROGRESS: The contracting of the biggest activity — the agriculture aggregator pilot- was completed and work was started in January 2017. The design phase is anticipated to be finalized in June 2017. Work has advanced with the design and piloting of an evaluation of Biscate, a private sector labor market matching survey for informal workers in Mozambique. The overall budget was revised downwards to reflect exchange rate movements. TF0A0606 | Let’s Work Tanzania COUNTRY / REGION: Tanzania TTL: Javier Sanchez-Reaza OBJECTIVE: To design a technical assistance program building on existing diagnostics and strategies and to provide a jobs lens through spatial and value chain diagnostics around catalytic trends of urbanization and the emerging gas cluster in the South. As with other pilots, the program will also be complemented by a stock-take of WBG and donor operations using a jobs lens, with the objective of informing the design of future interventions for maximizing more, better, and inclusive jobs. APPROACH: The work program will be organized around three components: Component 1 will focus on three activities: (i) analysis of firm dynamics in the Greater Dar area through spatial diagnostics to assess agglomeration effects; (ii) value chain mapping for priority sectors; and (iii) an update of recent job dynamics based on the latest labor force survey. Component 2 will draw on the analytics from Component 1 and focuses on three additional activities: (i) a review of jobs-relevant existing 101 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 and planned operations; (ii) stakeholder and partner consultations; and (iii) client capacity-building of identified institutions. Component 3 (added subsequently) will measure the impact of an intervention on rural livelihoods. PROGRESS: Stakeholder meetings were held with private sector counterparts and development partners, including Lets Work partners, in April 2016. Meetings with the public sector were also held in April 2016. The quality of underlying firm data delayed progress, but after several months of cleaning, models are being run. Through collaboration with World Food Program (WFP), IFC and Imperial College London, the baseline for an Impact Evaluation was carried out. TF0A1027 | Let’s Work program in Paraguay COUNTRY / REGION: Paraguay TTL: Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer OBJECTIVE: To support the Government in developing a jobs strategy with a focus on the bottom 40 percent of the population, including analytical work, new data collection, and piloting of M&E measures that support the following areas of focus: (i) promoting the creation of private sector jobs; (ii) increasing the productivity of jobs that already exist; and (iii) helping connect people to jobs. APPROACH: The grants finances four sets of activities: i) a Jobs Diagnostic supported by new data collection (qualitative and quantitative); ii) sectoral analyses; iii) regulatory and institutional assessments; and iv) stakeholder dialogue and an action plan. PROGRESS: A revised Concept Note was approved in March 2016. Main findings of the jobs analysis were presented in Asuncion. Technical and multi-ministerial workshops were held in Paraguay. The Jobs Assessment report was completed and internally reviewed in 2016. Progress on the scoping of the value chain analysis and deliverables advanced based on Government consultations and technical feedback from the World Bank’s cross-sectoral value chain survey team. The Jobs Assessment report (Spanish version) will be disseminated in-country in Spring 2017 , and an internal BBL in the World Bank was held February 16, 2017 . 102 ANNEX E TF0A1028 | Let’s Work program in Bangladesh COUNTRY: Bangladesh TTL: Thomas Farole OBJECTIVE: To identify and develop opportunities to leverage and support the private sector in creating more and better jobs in Bangladesh by i) building a stronger understanding of job dynamics (supply and demand) including both formal and informal labor markets; ii) designing short-term, bottom-up, pilot interventions in specific sectors that offer high potential for the creation of inclusive jobs; and iii) doing groundwork–via consultations with government, the private sector, and other stakeholders—- for the operationalization of a medium-term jobs agenda. APPROACH: The grant will finance the following activities: (i) conducting a Jobs Diagnostic providing a comprehensive assessment of the supply and demand-side dynamics that shape jobs outcomes in Bangladesh in order to identify a shared strategic agenda on jobs, which can support the Government of Bangladesh in achieving its Vision 2021 plan; (ii) designing and implementing select analytics and pilot programs that address constraints to private sector-led job growth, improved job quality, and greater inclusion in specific sub-sectors and value chains with high job creation potential; and (iii) supporting a process of dialogue that engages the Government of Bangladesh, the private sector, and development partners with the aim of developing a shared jobs agenda leading toward the development of a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder jobs action plan. PROGRESS: The Jobs Diagnostic was completed in January 2017 . A Jobs Strategy workshop was held in Winter 2017. Sectoral pilots are underway in key grant sectors, including light engineering, leather, and RMG sectors, along with value chain analytics covering all three sectors. TF0A1352 | Let’s Work program in Tunisia COUNTRY / REGION: Tunisia TTL: Michael Weber OBJECTIVE: To identify some of the most binding constraints affecting the creation and productivity of jobs within targeted value chains in a lagging region and to inform future projects to help tackle these constraints. This will be guided by a specially designed instrument that maps value chains and assesses constraints to growth and employment creation, as well as a capacity building program addressed towards local administrations (active in the lagging region) on value chain analysis and business development services. 103 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 APPROACH: Grant-financed activities include (i) the identification of value chains/clusters and project preparation with local partners; (ii) mapping of jobs in selected value chains that are strongly anchored in the selected lagging region; and (iii) studying the opportunities and constraints for job creation in the selected value chains / clusters. PROGRESS: The technical assessment on value chain development in lagging regions has made substantial progress. Capacity building and training events were organized to establish a value chain platform for future analysis and development. TF0A1361 | Let’s Work program Western Balkans COUNTRY / REGION: Western Balkans TTL: Namita Datta and Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer OBJECTIVE: To deepen knowledge of job quality, access, and productivity in several countries in the Western Balkans—-including Kosovo—-and help the governments develop Jobs Strategies. APPROACH: The grant finances the (i) development of diagnostics that explore job dynamics at the macro, firm, and individual levels; (ii) the design of Jobs Strategies in consultation with clients to identify policies and programs at macro / national and micro/ regional levels to address relevant constraints over the short and medium term; and (iii) the design of blueprints for integrated multi-sector responses that prioritize jobs strategies in partnerships with different WBG Global Practices. PROGRESS: The first Jobs Diagnostic analysis on Kosovo was completed and the draft report was prepared. A scoping mission to Albania, Serbia and Macedonia was completed in Fall 2016. As a result, an initial scoping proposal was prepared comprising activities to fill knowledge gaps. A draft Concept Note was prepared. It was decided to concentrate available trust fund resources towards a more focused single-country intervention, and discussion to select a country is ongoing. 104 ANNEX E TF0A0936 | Communications for LWP COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Fareeba Mahmood OBJECTIVE: To finance ongoing program management support and communications for the Let’s Work Program (LWP). APPROACH: The grant supports regular Let’s Work Steering Committee meetings, communications activities and staffing, and associated website development and updates. PROGRESS: The grant is financing ongoing program support activities associated with the Let’s Work program as originally outlined, including general communications, partnership support to the Let’s Work Steering Committee, overarching maintenance and security of the Let’s Work and Jobs Multi-donor Trust Fund websites, and editing support for Knowledge Management documents. Pillar 2: New Methods And Approaches to Measure, Understand, and Strengthen the Creation of More and Better Jobs. As of end-January, this Pillar of the Let’s Work window had $1.8 million allocated for 6 activities.46 TF0A1353 | LW Pillar 2--management of measurement deliverables COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Alvaro Gonzalez OBJECTIVE: To coordinate and oversee the various deliverables implemented by the variety of partners under Pillar 2 of Let’s Work, which aims to develop a set of harmonized methodologies and tools for estimating direct, indirect, and induced effects of jobs for both the quantity and the quality of jobs. APPROACH: The grant finances the management of the stream of approximately 26 case studies and technical deliverables produced under Pillar 2 of the LWP. Management of LW Pillar 2 is being implemented through three different Working Groups, centered upon the job estimation models being used, 46 This does not include allocations for Let’s Work Pillar 2 diagnostics that are being fi nanced from SECO funds, housed in an IFC Let’s Work MDTF, estimated at $1.2 million. 105 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 namely Value Chains, Tracers, and Macro Models. Each Working Group consists of volunteers from partners organizations and is led by a staff member of the WBG. The table below provides details: Working Groups’ Composition Organization Organization Description Participant Names IYF International Youth Foundation Colin Hagans ILO International Labor Organization Erick Zeballos Value Chain Analysis IFC International Finance Corporation Charles Lor AfDB African Development Bank Issa Faye AfDB African Development Bank El Hadj Bah CDC Commonwealth Development Corporation Kate Griffith DFID Department of International Development Stuart Tibbs PIDG Private Infrastructure Development Group Ann Muir WB (coordinator) World Bank Group Thomas Farole AfDB African Development Bank El Hadj Bah CDC Commonwealth Development Corporation Alex MacGillivray CDC Commonwealth Development Corporation Kate Griffith Tracer Studies IFC International Finance Corporation Charles Lor IFC International Finance Corporation Mahima Khanna ILO International Labor Organization Matt Ripleu EIB European Investment Bank Christoph Weiss WB (coordinator) World Bank Group Alvaro Gonzalez ILO International Labor Organization Massimiliano La Marca IFC International Finance Corporation Marek Harsdorff IFC (coordinator) International Finance Corporation Camilo Mondragon Macro Models IFC International Finance Corporation Evgenia Shumilkina AfDB African Development Bank Emelly Mutambatsere PIDG Private Infrastructure Development Group Ann Muir DFID Department of International Development Martyn Shannon CDC Commonwealth Development Corporation Alex MacGillivray EIB European Investment Bank [TBD] Each working group is tasked with: a) developing tools and methodologies that are technically sound, standardized, replicable, and sustainably implementable; and b) disseminating the lessons learned. PROGRESS: Work under Macro models was completed in February 2017 . Projects under Value Chain Working group are progressing, and two pilots were carried out. Based on the pilot results, a set of materials for the implementation of the survey and country teams was developed. With regards to the tracers, three of the original projects selected have been carried out. A second call for proposals was launched, and two were approved and have assessments underway. 106 ANNEX E TF0A1538 | Let’s Work Pillar 2: Tajikistan COUNTRY / REGION: Tajikistan TTL: Victoria Strokova OBJECTIVE: To assess the patterns of job creation along given value chains, via surveys, that will fill a critical knowledge gap on job creation opportunities of the mining and agribusiness sectors –which have a strong potential for private sector investment in Tajikistan. APPROACH: The grant finances the conducting of surveys to assess value chain linkages and job creation potential in the mining and agribusiness sectors. Firm surveys are being conducted at multiple levels along the value chain to better understand firm decision-making regarding labor use and suppliers, and constraints that may impact firm expansion. This analysis is intended to inform the preparation and implementation of WBG operations and the broader policy dialogue. As the country faces the challenge of diversifying its economy and improving the labor market situation, both sectors represent a potential for creating more, better, and more inclusive jobs. The sectors are also aligned with IFC’s focus in Tajikistan, where agribusiness and mining have been identified as strong potential sectors for IFC investment. PROGRESS: Survey fieldwork commenced in January 2017 and is ongoing in values chains for construction materials and tourism. Data collection is ongoing. TF0A1539 | Value chain for jobs analysis in North Lebanon COUNTRY / REGION: Lebanon TTL: Peter Mousley, Thomas Farole, and Haneen Sayed OBJECTIVE: To understand value chain and supply chain dynamics in Northern Lebanon in order to estimate the job and earning impacts of investments in high informality and fragile/ conflict-affected environments. APPROACH: The grant finances an evaluation of two value chains by implementing a survey instrument designed to provide a detailed understanding of supply chain relationships, firm production structures, and workforce characteristics. PROGRESS: All activities have been completed. All analytical work was concluded and the report findings and recommendations were delivered to client. The diagnostic of the selected value chains and the labor market diagnostic provided a granular and quantitative picture of the current job market in North 107 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 Lebanon. Based on scenario analysis, the report offered options for how to increase higher quality jobs in value chains, taking into account current labor market performance and skills endowment in the FCV-affected region. With the new government now in place, as of December 2016, the team is now completing final professional editing of the report for an expected April 2017 launch. TF0A1689 | Jobs agenda in Burkina Faso—agri-food value chains COUNTRY / REGION: Burkina Faso TTL: Michael Weber OBJECTIVE: To deepen understanding of the binding constraints and opportunities for job productivity growth in selected agri-food value chains in Burkina Faso and inform government policies on potential interventions to promote job creation. APPROACH: The grant finances the following activities: (i) collection of employment data for horticulture and poultry / grain value chains; (ii) production of an actionable analytical report using the data to identify bottlenecks to investment and actions to address labor market failures; and (iii) dissemination of analysis to stakeholders via a workshop. PROGRESS: The implementation is ongoing. A report on selected value chains—beef (meat and live cattle trade) and poultry (eggs)—has been drafted and a survey firm is being selected for the implementation of the value chain and jobs survey in Burkina Faso. TF0A2341 | Finance for jobs in Palestine: jobs measurement and methodologies (CGE and SCBA) COUNTRY / REGION: Palestine TTL: Peter J. Mousley OBJECTIVE: To develop new Jobs-focused instruments to determine the private and social returns of job creation through private project finance investments in Palestine. This activity will establish a robust methodology and baseline of data to enable an assessment of the net jobs and other economic and social outcomes generated from the Finance for Jobs project interventions. APPROACH: The grant activities seek to establish a robust M&E framework for an ongoing WBG initiative— Finance for Jobs (F4J) in West Bank and Gaza (WB&G). This will allow for setting up a robust methodology and baseline of data to ensure rigorous assessment of the net jobs and other economic 108 ANNEX E and social outcomes generated by project There are two activities under this grant, the preparation of a CGE Model for WB&G and Analysis, and the development of a Social Cost Benefit Analysis Methodology and its application to a first mover investment. PROGRESS: All key aspects of this assignment including the development of the Social Rate of Return (SRR) methodology and the development of the CGE model to provide sector-specific baseline of job creation under different economic assumptions and investment actions are progressing well. TF0A2039 | Georgia jobs value chain analysis COUNTRY / REGION: Georgia TTL: Josefina Posadas OBJECTIVE: To measure the potential direct and indirect jobs impact from targeted investment in particular value chains in Georgia. APPROACH: The grant will finance analysis towards delivery of three technical notes. The analysis will focus on (i) Synthesizing and assessing relevance of the analysis conducted on labor supply and demand issues during the last 3 to 5 years, (ii) identifying the constraints to job creation in one or two selected value chains, and (iii) identifying the occupations growing in demand to understand skills availability and scarcity in the country. These analyses will ongoing work in Trade & Competitiveness (T&C) and the IFC who will undertake value chain analyses for three products in Georgia- citrus, soft fruit and hazelnut. PROGRESS: After stakeholder consultations and policy dialogue, the wine sector has been identified for the final implementation of the value chain analysis. The questionnaire and sampling strategy has also been finalized. 109 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 WINDOW 3: SUPPORTING JOB CREATION FOR YOUTH As of end-January, this window had approximately $4.6 million allocated to 9 activities TF0A0739 | CCT plus: combining CCT, vocational training and business grants--long term evaluation of a randomized trial in Nicaragua COUNTRY / REGION: Nicaragua TTL: Renos Vakis OBJECTIVE: To finance the provision of long-term evidence on the effectiveness of a productive safety nets program targeted at rural poor in a low-income setting. Specifically, to support a long term follow-up survey and measures the effects of Atención a Crisis–an income generation and productive safety net intervention implemented in 2005 and 2006 in six of the poorest municipalities in rural Nicaragua. APPROACH: Grant-financed activities include the design, creation, and implementation of a survey instrument that will shed light on how best to create jobs for youth, and in particular, the role of different skills (cognitive, technical and socio-emotional) for employment. PROGRESS: The team hired a firm to design the survey instrument to measure skills. Field work to pilot the instrument and data collection is underway. TF0A0748 --S4YE| Global learning and technical assistance COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Namita Datta OBJECTIVE: To support the Solutions for Youth Employment (S4YE) Coalition–which links stakeholders in the private and public sectors and civil society– in activities aimed at gathering and exchanging knowledge and evidence, bringing together diverse stakeholders, and using knowledge to achieve high-impact programming for youth employment at scale. APPROACH: The grant-financed activities include preparation of the S4YE flagship report on youth employment the first interim annual S4YE report with thematic focus, and toolkits for practitioners; and the development of content for the S4YE website (http://www.s4ye.org). 110 ANNEX E PROGRESS: The first activity in this grant was completed in the first and was documented in the Solutions for Youth Employment (S4YE) flagship report, Towards Solutions for Youth Employment. The second output in this grant was also completed in the first year and was documented in the report “Youth on the Move, ” which has completed the WBG quality assurance processes. The third deliverable a “Toolkit on Toolkits” that guides the user through available toolkits and helps them identify which of these existing products is most suitable for the users’ needs, is being developed. The fourth deliverable - a series of wireframes for a new website — have been developed. Substantial knowledge and evidence about the current state of youth employment practices and solutions have also been gathered. TF0A0787 | Socio-emotional skills pilot for higher youth employability in Turkey COUNTRY / REGION: Turkey TTL: Victoria Levin and Ana Maria Munoz OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of an intervention that provides job-seekers with evidence-based tools to set goals (e.g. finding a job) and practical strategies to persevere and sustain the motivation to overcome obstacles and failures in their pursuit of successful labor market (re)integration, with a special focus on unemployed youth and women. APPROACH: The grant finances a three-phased activity: (i) development of a prior study and design of the intervention and evaluation instruments and materials; (ii) pre-testing of the intervention and implementation of pilot; and (iii) evaluation of the intervention and dissemination of results. PROGRESS: Work on developing of the intervention content and evaluation design, in close collaboration with the client (Turkish Public Employment Service # ISKUR), is underway. The intervention content was developed by a local psychologist, with inputs from the team, another psychologist, and ISKUR. The design of the impact evaluation strategy is informed by consultations with ISKUR and international experts. Both have been informed by the prior study, which sought to elicit information on the socio- emotional skills that are relevant in the Turkish labor market and specifically for the target population. 111 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF0A0831 | Rapid skills training for youth employment COUNTRY / REGION: Global (Colombia, Kenya, and Lebanon) TTL: Victor Mulas OBJECTIVE: To identify key success factors of Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training Programs (boot camps) and measure their impact on employment and employability of youth. APPROACH: The grant will finance the following activities (i) identifying key success factors and creating a toolkit methodology for rapid technology skills training programs; (ii) conducting rapid skills training programs together with local partners; (iii) assessing and monitoring the impact of boot camps on employment and employability of participants; and (iv) disseminating the results of the boot camp trainings and developing a guide for rapid skills training programs for implementation when scaled up. PROGRESS: The three pilots in Nairobi, Medellin, and Beirut have already been implemented. Key success factors and best practices of coding bootcamps have been identified, from a double approach: (i) from the theoretical perspective through analytical research; and (ii) from the practical experiences through bootcamps operations in Colombia, Kenya, and Lebanon. Final reports will summarize the main findings and will serve to inform policymakers and other public or private stakeholders on how to introduce technology and entrepreneurship rapid skills trainings on an urban ecosystem. The methodology for measuring the impact on employment and employability was prepared and deployed. The qualitative results from Kenya and Lebanon is expected to be analyzed soon. Outputs and knowledge from this grant financed activity will be posted on the website (http://www.decodingbootcamps.org) and the MDTF knowledge website, under the knowledge section. TF0A0982 | Youth labor market exclusion in Indonesia and Philippines COUNTRY / REGION: Indonesia and Philippines TTL: Vivi Alatas and Truman Packard OBJECTIVE: To (i) identify factors that lead to the exclusion of young people from the labor market and understand how these work experiences affect later outcomes (i.e. “scarring”); (ii) inform the design of labor market interventions to put young people on pathways to productive work; and (iii) demonstrate the value of collecting more information about work conditions. 112 ANNEX E APPROACH: The grant finances the following sets of activities in each of the countries: (i) analytics on factors driving exclusion; (ii) analysis on “scarring” from bad jobs; (iii) design of pilot interventions; and (iv) the improvement of regularly collected labor market data. PROGRESS: In Indonesia, the team has delivered all inputs. These include: (i) analysis of youth labor market trajectories and ‘scarring’ from spells of unemployment or employment in informal dependent and self-employment, updated to 2014–2015; (ii) disaggregation of the analysis to ‘drill down’ on the particular and varying labor market challenges faced by young women and young men; (iii) based on this analysis, a proposal for an intervention that focusses on the school to work transition and improve initial employment outcomes for young people, for discussion with the Government of Indonesia as part of the Jobs Programmatic Engagement (as part of the Vulnerable and Excluded Workers activity, P159694); and (iv) advice to the statistical authorities on improvements to their regularly deployed labor force survey (Sakernas) to better capture jobs outcomes. The outputs have gone through peer review. In the Philippines, a change in government priorities and leadership created significant delays. After consultation with the team on the ground and the MDTF program management unit (PMU), it was decided to close the work in the Philippines. TF0A0999 | Public works and welfare: randomized control trials in Tunisia and Comoros COUNTRY / REGION: Global (Tunisia; Comoros) TTL: Eric Mvukiyehe OBJECTIVE: To improve knowledge on the impacts of Public Works Projects (PWPs) on the socio-economic outcomes of the long-term unemployed in a fragile country. APPROACH: This grant operates in the context of experimental impact evaluations (randomized controlled trials) integrated into WBG-funded projects in Tunisia and Comoros. Each of these impact evaluations studies a PWP designed to improve the livelihood of poor households through an extra source of income and the creation and maintenance of community-owned infrastructure. PROGRESS: Implementation is underway. In Tunisia, survey data has been gathered and cleaned. A pre- analysis plan was formed and is to be published. In Comoros, the impact evaluation has been delayed as more time than expected is needed to complete the targeting process of beneficiary households. 113 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF0A2864 | Liberia youth opportunities impact evaluation—data COUNTRY / REGION: Liberia TTL: Laura Ralston OBJECTIVE: To carry out an Impact Evaluation to address key questions on how to cost-effectively promote self- employment and entrepreneurship in fragile and conflict-affected states APPROACH: The Impact Evaluation will make comparisons across several dimensions of a youth opportunities program being implemented by the Government of Liberia through the randomization of youth into different groups according to the impact evaluation design. Particular questions will include assessing: (i) the return to integrating skills training with start-up grants vs. the provision of start-up grants alone, (ii) the impact of introducing behavioral nudges to help females overcome gender- specific barriers, and (iii) whether different contract designs can improve the outcomes of apprentices and apprenticeship providers. Thus, the IE will address the basic, yet fundamental, question of how to promote self-employment and entrepreneurship cost-effectively and with greatest impact. The grant financed activities will include the field management and supervision of an impact evaluation, that will include, but not be limited to activities of data collection, intervention piloting and results dissemination. PROGRESS: Progress is underway on the development of the survey instrument and the recruitment of a data collection firm, however actual data collection is tied to progress of the project in targeting potential beneficiaries that is expected later in the calendar year. TF0A2866 | Evaluating scalable productive safety net innovations COUNTRY / REGION: Madagascar TTL: Andrea Vermehren OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate two innovative elements of Madagascar’s new Productive Safety Net Program; (a) the use of productive spaces and (b) behavioral nudges with the ultimate goal to improve the productive activities of families, including for their better nutrition. APPROACH: These scalable models, if proven cost-effective, will make a substantial contribution to the growing, but still sparse literature on productive cash for work programs that seek to provide not only income support as a safety net for poor households, but also aim to improve the productive activities of the households for better nutrition and well-being. There are three components to the grant 114 ANNEX E activities: (i) Impact Evaluation of the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP); (ii) Implementation of the Productive Spaces model (iii) Implementation of the Behavioral Nudge model PROGRESS: Significant progress has been made on all components. On component (i), both an international and national survey firm have been contracted, who have since developed survey instruments in collaboration with all partners, and will carry out the baseline survey in early calendar year 2017, and the follow-up survey approximately a year later. On component II, the team is working with the implementation agency FID to finalize the trainings to be provided to beneficiaries in this model. The launch is expected in middle of CY2017 . On component (iii), Ideas42- a group of behavioral experts- have been contracted who have carried out their first field visit, and designed prototypes of nudges that have been field tested in early 2017 . TF0A2927 | Ghana national apprenticeship program impact evaluation COUNTRY / REGION: Ghana TTL: Maddalena Honorati OBJECTIVE: To carry out an impact evaluation of the National Apprenticeship Program, a nationwide government sponsored apprenticeship program for youth in Ghana, with a view to inform the government on its effectiveness and identify options to improve its performance. APPROACH: The research design will ascertain the impact of the program on participating youth and also on participating firms. The design will also shed light on the importance of the match between apprentice and trainer characteristics in producing better employment and productivity outcomes among youth and firms respectively. Lessons learned from the impact and process evaluations will be critical inputs into a potential pipeline youth employment project in Ghana. The grant activities will finance the delivery of an impact evaluation paper, final report and policy notes that identify recommendations from the findings, and dissemination activities for outreach to relevant stakeholders in Ghana. PROGRESS: Preparatory activities to undertake the impact evaluation are underway. Design of end line data collection is in progress, and is expected to be rolled out in March 2017. 115 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 WINDOW 4: JOBS IN FRAGILE AND CONFLICT SITUATIONS (FCV) As of end-January, this window has allocated approximately $1.7 million to 7 activities. TF0A0828 |Training course on measuring violent conflict COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Diane Steele OBJECTIVE: To develop the Conflict Exposure Module (CEM), which builds the capacity of government agencies, donors, non-governmental organizations, and researchers to complement standard household surveys in conflict-affected countries with questions featuring the causes, forms, and consequence of violence. This enhances the generation of micro-data on violence, supporting better research on issues such as the relationship between livelihoods, employment and violence, resulting in better policy design. APPROACH: The grant will finance the development of the CEM module and the delivery of this module in a week long workshop. PROGRESS: This activity was completed. A week-long training workshop for the CEM was held in November 2015. The CEM was developed under the Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) project in coordination with the International Security and Development Center (ISDC) and has been published on the LSMS-ISA website as a sourcebook. Participants from the FAO, UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Africa, London School of Economics, and numerous national statistical institutes–Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Colombia, Malawi, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda–attended. The course was rated successful by the attendees. [Note: Links to the CEM and related information can be found on the Jobs Umbrella MDTF website under the Knowledge Section]. TF0A0786 | Linking vulnerable youth with digital employment opportunities COUNTRY / REGION: Pakistan TTL: Anna O’Connell OBJECTIVE: To train up to 1,200−1,500 youth in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan, and provide post-training support and guidance, so that trainees can access online income generating opportunities. 116 ANNEX E Over the next several decades, Pakistan is poised to surpass Brazil and Indonesia to become the fourth most populous country in the world. With nearly 53 million active youth under 25, the challenges of inclusion and empowerment of these young people will continue to grow. While not inherently dangerous, when governments are unable to foster work opportunities and platforms for expression and engagement, such youth bulges can exacerbate the risks of conflict, thereby making this type of initiative a key opportunity for governments to explore and scale-up. APPROACH: The grant finances the following key activities: (i) development of a roadmap to identify key constraints to working in the digital economy, map stakeholders in the online work arena, and identify partner entities whose facilities can be used to deliver the training and inform curriculum design; (ii) implementation of the training programs, scaling up the work of three ongoing pilots; and (iii) establishment of a monitoring system and extrapolation of lessons learned. PROGRESS: Implementation is underway, with the first activity — development of a roadmap — already completed. Two of three training programs are underway, with the third starting soon. The third program will leverage a grant funding from a larger Government of KP funded program to cover 7 divisions in the province and to target up to an additional 2,100 beneficiaries—welcomed signs of sustainability and scaling up. The establishment of a monitoring system and extrapolation of lessons learned is underway. TF0A0829 | Youth transitions in post-ebola Sierra Leone COUNTRY / REGION: Sierra Leone TTL: Nina Raffo OBJECTIVE: To improve the availability and quality of data and analysis in order to inform youth employment policies and programs in post-Ebola Sierra Leone and other Ebola-affected, fragile, and post-conflict countries. APPROACH: The grant supports the following activities: (i) implementation of the country’s second Labor Force Survey (LFS) and possibly an Enterprise Survey; (ii) drafting a comprehensive Jobs Diagnostic based on the aforementioned surveys; and (iii) capacity building for collection of national statistics on youth employment using innovative approaches. PROGRESS: Data collection for the 2016 Labor Force Survey using computer-assisted personal interview (CAPI) was completed. Additionally, per concept note reviewer recommendations, a qualitative study to complement the quantitative results was delivered. Despite data collection delays due to Government capacity, the quantitative analysis has advanced in close collaboration with Statistics Sierra Leone (SSL) staff and other relevant stakeholders. Based on this, a short note on basic labor market statistics was developed. 117 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF0A0962 | Training women in SolTuna COUNTRY / REGION: Solomon Islands TTL: Amy Luinstra OBJECTIVE: To improve the skills and employability of women and men in the fisheries sector in the Solomon Islands, through an innovative activity that tests partnerships with the private sector. An additional focus is placed on building women’s skills for good jobs in non-traditional technical fields. APPROACH: The grant finances the following activities: (i) improving skills– including pre-employment and workplace training–for employees of SolTuna and their communities and (ii) demonstrating the effectiveness of private sector partnerships for training–including M&E and results dissemination. PROGRESS: The gender and labor advisory report has been completed and recommendations were accepted by client, in principle. The financial competency training has been delivered to 285 employees, and 523 employees completed the baseline survey. Training for all remaining workers is underway. Lessons and results from the training have been disseminated to other Solomon Islands businesses and have also been distributed via two global IFC publications. A partnership has been formed with Solomon Islands Chamber of Commerce to jointly deliver support to the private sector to recruit, retain, and promote women workers. The project is also contributing to ongoing reform efforts at the Solomon Islands National University (SINU) as part of a larger reform project funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). TF0A0974 | Improving employment services for vulnerable populations in Ukraine COUNTRY / REGION: Ukraine TTL: Abla Safir OBJECTIVE: To respond to the State Employment Services of Ukraine’s request for assistance by making recommendations to better serve vulnerable populations through improved information on labor market. APPROACH: The Grant finances the following: (i) data collection to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the State Employment Services and public employment services in job search and job matching and (ii) measurement of the results of the interventions to inform subsequent policy reforms. 118 ANNEX E PROGRESS: Data Collection on occupation and skills in demand are underway. Both the State Employment Service and the Ministry of Social Policy are highly interested and supportive of the project; however, the team is facing technical difficulties in obtaining some of the data. For the pilots, the activities are currently being discussed with employer associations. TF0A0989 | Soft skills, personality traits and jobs in FCV COUNTRY / REGION: Global TTL: Marcus Holmlund OBJECTIVE: To improve labor market policy targeting disadvantaged populations in low- and middle-income countries, specifically, the role of soft skills and personality traits–as complements to vocational/ technical training–in improving labor market and related life-outcomes for at-risk youth. APPROACH: The grant finances two sets of complementary activities: (i) the implementation of experimental interventions targeting soft skills and personality traits and (ii) improved data collection on soft skills and personality traits. This work takes place in the context of experimental impact evaluations (randomized controlled trials) of World Bank-funded projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), El Salvador, and Honduras, where the programs are designed to alter the life outcomes of disadvantaged youth at risk of conflict and violence. PROGRESS: In the DRC, implementation has been delayed due to civil unrest in some of the areas where activities were planned. In Honduras, implementation is underway and grant objectives will be met; however, the WB financed project was restructured, resulting in overall budget cuts, and subsequent delays. In El Salvador, the bank financed project was put on hold due to liquidity constraints of the Government. TF0A1069 | The informal sector in the Sahel COUNTRY / REGION: Sahel TTL: Nancy Benjamin OBJECTIVE: To provide insight into the poorly understood dynamic of informal firms operating in unstable environments by closing data gaps in three cities of the Sahel region — Bamako (Mali), Niamey (Niger). 119 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 APPROACH: The grant funds surveys and interviews with firms, government officials, and other stakeholders in the target countries. PROGRESS: All three stages of work are completed for Niger, including surveys. Following preliminary discussions and arrangements for resources in Mali, surveys and in-depth interviews are being scheduled there. Results so far are providing useful information toward the grant objective. WINDOW 5: ACTIONABLE RESEARCH ON JOBS (RESEARCH) As of end-January, this window had funded approximately $1.6 million for 8 approved activities of which 6 are joint with the ILO. TF0A2163 | Globalization, labor markets, and trade policy COUNTRY / REGION: Kenya TTL: Aaditya Mattoo OBJECTIVE AND APPROACH: To empirically examine how trade policies and labor market frictions jointly determine the impact of trade shocks on household welfare across the income distribution via their impact on household income and consumption choices. The goal being to identify policy options to expand job opportunities and improve incomes. PROGRESS: This activity is on track. Harmonized household survey data from 50 countries have been matched with trade policy data. This is above the target of 30 countries that was initially set. The data cleaning is being finalized. Programs required to estimate the model have been developed. A working paper is being drafted. Additionally, the team has been working with the WBG MENA Chief Economists to provide inputs into a regional flagship study on shared prosperity. TF0A2368 | Pathways to formality COUNTRY / REGION: Latin America TTL: Jamele Rigolini OBJECTIVE AND APPROACH: To develop an analytical framework to explain pathways towards formalization for both enterprises and labor. Using a unique panel-structured firm survey for Peru that contains information about 120 ANNEX E various levels of formalization, the framework would be tested with actual data and relevant formality characteristics. Depending on budget and data availability, the framework may also be tested in other countries, such as Colombia. PROGRESS: The team has finalized the building of the dataset and has started with the econometric analysis. Draft results, addressing the objective of the grant to better understand pathways to formality have been developed. TF0A2453 | Public works and welfare: a randomized control trial of Egypt’s emergency labor-intensive investment project COUNTRY / REGION: Egypt TTL: Eric Mvukiyehe OBJECTIVE: In 2012, the WB approved a $200 million loan to the Government of Egypt, funding the Emergency Labor Intensive Investment Project with a large cash for work program; over 80 percent of the project funding has been disbursed. This grant provides funding to conduct an impact evaluation that will establish the effectiveness of this safety net during periods of economic distress, and to what extent it contributes to the livelihoods of beneficiaries. APPROACH: A randomized controlled trial will be used to identify the effects of the cash for work activities on economic and social outcomes. In addition, the proposed evaluation will aim to provide evidence on the role that a complementary intervention of ‘soft skills’ training has in enhancing beneficiaries’ employability and future income earning capacity. Evaluation findings will inform scale-up/scale- down decisions about the program in Egypt and will have policy and operational relevance for other cash for work programs in the MNA region and beyond. PROGRESS: The PWPs have been finalized. Data collection followed the project-endings and have taken place. The team is now working on producing the analysis. 121 J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 TF0A1563 | Labor market dynamics and social protection for rural to urban migrants in China COUNTRY / REGION: China TTL: John T Giles OBJECTIVE: The grant has three objectives. Firstly, to evaluate factors affecting migrant participation in social insurance programs in China’s urban areas. Secondly, to examine well-being of rural migrant workers relative to their urban counterparts in urban China. Finally, to contribute to the body of experiments in the field of an ongoing survey of rural migrants in urban China. This will contribute to a public access data set, that will facilitate additional research on China’s rural migrants by policy-oriented researchers from around the world. APPROACH: The grant will finance an impact evaluation to study the above objectives, and will deliver four papers: (i) Elder Parent Health, Family-Based Long-Term Care Arrangements and the Labor Supply of Adult Children: Evidence from China; (ii) Information and Preferences in the Migrant Workers Decision to Participate in Social Insurance; (iii) Effects of migration on the labor supply of the elderly parents of migrants in rural China; (iv) Comparative studies of the condition of migrants in India and China: in collaboration with ILO. PROGRESS: Significant progress has been made both on the evaluation and on the delivery of analytical products. The survey component of the grant has been completed. One of the four papers has been completed and was presented in the Jobs Conference held in Washington DC in November 2016. The other three are in different stages of progress. TF0A1854 | The direct and spillover impacts of business training and mentoring of female entrepreneurs: experimental evidence from Kenya COUNTRY / REGION: Kenya TTL: David J. McKenzie OBJECTIVE: To measure the direct and spillover impacts of business training and mentoring of female entrepreneurs in Kenya through experimental evidence on groups of women who have been through ILO’s Women’s Entrepreneurship Development program called GET Ahead. APPROACH: The objectives of the grant activities are two-fold. Firstly, to enhance the business training treatment through an intense mentoring intervention of ten sessions delivered during five months to groups 122 ANNEX E of women who have participated in the GET Ahead training. Secondly, to measure its impact over time on business survival, profitability, employment, and growth of female small businesses already exposed to entrepreneurship training, as well as the spillover impacts on neighboring firms. This work is tied to an ongoing ILO intervention, feeding into their country work. PROGRESS: The mentoring intervention has been successfully implemented, two follow-up surveys to measure impacts have been carried out, and the draft of the research paper is being prepared. Early results have been shared in a workshop at the ILO in Geneva, and with stakeholders in Kenya through the ILO. TF0A1876 | “Entangled”: workers’ adjustment to trade COUNTRY / REGION: South Asia TTL: Gladys C. Lopez-Acevedo OBJECTIVE: To assess welfare implications of trade by estimating worker-level adjustment costs for different worker groups in South Asia. This will help fill in a critical gap in literature and also help policymakers target aid to affected workers and design programs to help the economy allocate resources efficiently. APPROACH: The research, in collaboration with the ILO, will be based on analysis of micro datasets from South Asia (household and labor force surveys) as well as trade datasets. The first outcome of the research is to identify the size and different nature of workers’ adjustment costs. The barriers for workers to move from one employment status to another are likely to differ from other types of constraints that may prevent workers from switching industries or occupations. The second outcome of the research is to understand the implications of adjustment costs for different segments of the population. Besides the efficiency argument, the research thus includes equity considerations, as different groups of workers may be affected by existing transaction costs to various degrees. The deliverables include a set of research papers and a book focusing on policy implications, along with dissemination activities organized jointly by the WBG and ILO teams. PROGRESS: Progress is on track with the initial steps having been made towards the analysis through identification of relevant databases and outlining of empirical methodology. Datasets are in the process of being cleaned, merged and harmonized before analysis can commence. 123 ANNEX F: LENDING OPERATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MDTF GRANTS Jobs MDTF — Trust Fund Grant Associated Lending Operation # of Project (IDA) (IBRD) bene- Trust Fund No Fund Name Region Country No (PID) Project Name PDO $m $m ficiaries AFRICA Emergency Youth P122546 Employment and Skills $50 56,922 Development Project The proposed Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve access to temporary employment and skills TF0A0731 Côte d’Ivoire Jobs Analytics AFR Côte d’Ivoire development opportunities for young men and women Youth Employment and in Côte d’Ivoire’s territory. P151844 Skills Development — $50 Additional Financing The PDO of the proposed project is to support the Youth entrepreneurship and Urban Productive Government of Ethiopia to improve income of tar- TF0A2670 spatial match in urban labor AFR Ethiopia P151712 Safety Net Project $300 465,600 geted poor households and establish urban safety markets in Ethiopia (UPSNP) net mechanisms CI-Infrastructure for The proposed PDO is to enable better economic per- Côte d’Ivoire Secondar y TF0A2671 AFR Côte d’Ivoire P151324 Urban Dev. & Comp. of formance in the targeted secondary cities of Bouake $100 Cities and Jobs secondary cities and San Pedro. The Project Development Objective is to contribute to increased economic opportunities and access to Integrated Growth Improving jobs of smallholder enabling infrastructure services, as measured by an TF0A2832 AFR Mozambique P113971 Poles and Corridor $50 417,000 women farmers increase in jobs and formal firms, in Targeted Regions. Project 2 The Program objective of the Series of Projects (SOP) is the same as the PDO of this Project. DRC Eastern Recovery Deepening the Jobs Impact P145196 $79.1 643,000 Project of the Public Works Programs The project development objective is to improve through Capital Injection and access to livelihoods and socio-economic TF0A2965 AFR DRC Social Network Stimulation: infrastructure in vulnerable communities in the A Randomized Control Trial in Additional Financing eastern provinces of DRC. Eastern DRC P157303 to Eastern Recovery $50 Project 125 ANNEX F 126 Jobs MDTF — Trust Fund Grant Associated Lending Operation # of Project (IDA) (IBRD) bene- Trust Fund No Fund Name Region Country No (PID) Project Name PDO $m $m ficiaries The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to con- Burkina Faso - Bagre tribute to increased economic activity in the Project P119662 $115 Growth Pole Project Area, resulting in an increase in private investment, Cash Transfers vs. Matching employment generation, and agricultural production. TF0A2968 Grants for Job Creation in AFR Burkina Faso MSMEs Burkina Faso - Bagre To contribute to increased economic activity in the P161234 Growth Pole Project Project Area to the benefit of agribusiness and small $50 40,000 Additional Financing producers The development objective of the proposed project is Zambia Agribusiness P156492 to contribute to increased market linkages and firm $40 30,000 and Trade Project growth in agribusiness. TF019344 Let’s Work —Zambia AFR Zambia TBD (A DPO is being planned in Zambia on the basis DPO in TBD of work done through Let’s Work Partnership in the Zambia country) TBD (An agriculture aggregator project is being TF0A0229 Let’s Work Mozambique AFR Mozambique TBD TBD planned in Mozambique on the basis of the work done $1.85 through the Let’s Work Partnership in the country) To pursue the transformation of selected agri-food Catalyzing the Future systems to yield higher revenues to farm house- TF0A0606 Let’s Work Tanzania AFR Tanzania P161764 Agri-food Systems of holds, while being more resilient to climate change; $100 Tanzania Project and provide immediate and effective response to an Eligible Crisis or Emergency. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to con- Burkina Faso - Bagre tribute to increased economic activity in the Project P119662 $115 Growth Pole Project Area, resulting in an increase in private investment, J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 employment generation, and agricultural production. Jobs Agenda in Burkina Faso TF0A1689 AFR Burkina Faso - Agri-food Value Chains Burkina Faso - Bagre To contribute to increased economic activity in the P161234 Growth Pole Project Project Area to the benefit of agribusiness and small $50 40,000 Additional Financing producers Jobs MDTF — Trust Fund Grant Associated Lending Operation # of Project (IDA) (IBRD) bene- Trust Fund No Fund Name Region Country No (PID) Project Name PDO $m $m ficiaries The Project Development Objectives are to improve Liberia Youth Opportunities Liberia Youth access to income generation opportunities for TF0A2864 AFR Liberia P146827 $10 15,000 IE - data Opportunities Project targeted youth and strengthen the government’s capacity to implement its cash transfer program. The project development objective (PDO) is to support Evaluating Scalable Social Safety Net the government in increasing the access of extremely TF0A2866 Productive Safety Net AFR Madagascar P149323 $40 863,500 Project poor households to safety net services and in laying Innovations the foundations for a social protection system. EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC CN — Improving the Jobs Yangtze River Belt Impact of the Industrial To contribute to balanced spatial development in the TF0A2966 EAP China P158079 Industrial Relocation $200 Development of the Yangtze Yangtze River Belt Demonstration Project River Economic Belt EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Georgia National The PDO is to increase innovative activities of firms GENIE Broadband for TF0A2640 ECA Georgia P152441 Innovation Ecosystem and individuals in the Borrower’s territory and their $40 64,000 Development program (GENIE) Project participation in the digital economy. The project development objective is to increase the commercialization of farm and agribusiness products, Tajikistan Agriculture by improving the performance of selected value P132652 Commercialization $22 10,000 chains and productive partnerships through increased Project Jobs MDTF Call 2: Tajikistan access to finance and strengthened capacity of Performance Based Project beneficiaries. TF0A2894 ECA Tajikistan Approach to BAS Provision The project development objective is to increase the (Supervisor) commercialization of farm and agribusiness products, ACP Additional by improving the performance of selected value P158499 $15 Financing chains and productive partnerships through increased access to finance and strengthened capacity of Project beneficiaries. The goal of the project is to build the capacity of the Ukraine: Conflict Ministry for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Improving Employment Response and Internally Displaced Persons (MOT) to address the TF0A0974 Services for Vulnerable ECA Ukraine P158091 Recovery Pilot and development impacts of the conflict. This will be done Populations Capacity Building through capacity building, knowledge generation and pilot recovery and peace-building activities. 127 ANNEX F 128 Jobs MDTF — Trust Fund Grant Associated Lending Operation # of Project (IDA) (IBRD) bene- Trust Fund No Fund Name Region Country No (PID) Project Name PDO $m $m ficiaries GLOBAL Lebanon; Rapid Skills Training for Jordan; Kenya Industry and Increase the productivity and innovation of Kenya’s TF0A0831 Global P161317 $50 Youth Employment Colombia; Entrepreneurship private sector Kenya The objective of the Project is to provide direct income support to low-skilled and long-term unemployed Community Works and citizens through their participation in labor-intensive P128427 5,890 Local Participation community works, to be selected and implemented in Public Works and Welfare: a highly participatory manner by civil society associa- Tunisia; TF0A0999 Randomized Control Trials in Global tions in Jendouba. Comoros Tunisia and Comoros The Project Development Objective is to increase Comoros Social Safety P150754 poor communities’ access to safety net and nutrition $6 Net Project services. The Project Development Objectives (PDOs) are to support Honduras to: (i) improve the capacity of national and local authorities in violence preven- HN Safer P130819 tion, (ii) address risk factors of crime and violence in $15 900 Municipalities Selected Municipalities, and (iii) to improve its capac- ity to respond promptly and effectively to an Eligible Emergency. Democratic Republic Additional Financing The project development objective is to improve access Soft skills, personality traits, P157303 to Eastern Recovery to livelihoods and socio-economic infrastructure in vul- $50 TF0A0989 Global of Congo; and jobs in FCV Project nerable communities in the eastern provinces of DRC. Honduras; Mexico The proposed Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve employability and labor income of poor J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 youth living in selected municipalities. Project benefi- Youth Employment and P156454 ciaries will include youth between 16 and 29 years of $130 Employability Project age from poor households that are no longer in school and are poorly connected with labor markets living in selected municipalities. Jobs MDTF — Trust Fund Grant Associated Lending Operation # of Project (IDA) (IBRD) bene- Trust Fund No Fund Name Region Country No (PID) Project Name PDO $m $m ficiaries LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN The Project Development Objectives are to: (a) improve the access of the rural population living in the Project areas to markets, and to social and administrative Rural Roads services through: (i) the carrying out of improvements LCR P123447 Infrastructure in the Recipient’s road infrastructure, and (ii) the $35 1,019,135 Improvement Project strengthening of MTI’s institutional capacity for asset and disaster risk management; and (b) support the gen- eration of short-term employment opportunities for the Improving Access to Markets rural population living in the Project areas. through Rural Roads TF0A2983 Rehabilitation in Nicaragua Nicaragua The original project PDO is being revised to: (a) improve – Overcoming Additional the access of the rural population living in the Project Constraints areas to markets, and to social and administrative ser- vices through: (i) the carrying out of improvements in Additional Financing the Recipient’s road infrastructure, and (ii) the strength- Rural Roads LCR P146845 ening of MTI’s and FOMAV’s institutional capacity for $57 Infrastructure road asset and disaster risk management; (b) support Improvement Project the generation of short-term employment opportuni- ties for the rural population living in the Project areas; and (c) to improve the country’s capacity to respond promptly and effectively to an eligible emergency. Mexico Economic Inclusion TF0A4483 LCR Mexico TBD TBD TBD (A lending operation is being planned in Mexico) $2 Pilot — Round3 To improve in a sustainable way the socio-economic AF to PY PRODERS condition of Small-Scale Farmers and Indigenous Sustainable TF0A1027 Let’s Work Paraguay LCR Paraguay P148504 Communities in the Project Area, through the support $100 Agriculture and Rural of actions to strengthen their community organization, Development Project self-governance, and access to markets and value chains. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Morocco Impact Evaluation Strengthening The objective of the Project is to provide Beneficiaries of Micro-Entrepreneurship micro-entrepreneur- TF0A0858 MNA Morocco P144134 in the Project Areas with access to micro-entrepreneur- 5,000 for Disadvantaged Youth in ship for disadvantaged ship development services. the Informal Sector youth 129 ANNEX F 130 Jobs MDTF — Trust Fund Grant Associated Lending Operation # of Project (IDA) (IBRD) bene- Trust Fund No Fund Name Region Country No (PID) Project Name PDO $m $m ficiaries The Project Development Objective is to improve eco- nomic opportunities in selected governorates of Tunisia through an integrated approach supporting targeted Productive Inclusion vulnerable youth, entrepreneurs and businesses. In the TF0A1352 Let’s Work Tunisia MNA Tunisia P158138 Opportunities for context of this project, “economic opportunities “are $60 6,000 young women and men defined as the chance to improve financial conditions, improve access to jobs, and/or move from low to high quality jobs for targeted youth, as well as improved business prospects for beneficiary firms. Finance for Jobs The SOP development objective (PDO) is to mobilize in Palestine: Jobs private investment financing in high potential sectors West Bank West Bank and Gaza: TF0A2341 Measurement and MNA P151089 and generate job opportunities for the West Bank and GAZA Finance for Jobs Methodologies (CGE and and Gaza. The F4J PDO is to test the effectiveness of SCBA) selected financial interventions. The Project Development Objectives are: (i) to create Public Works and Welfare: Egypt Emergency short-term employment opportunities for unemployed A Randomized Control Trial TF0A2453 MNA Egypt P126339 Labor Intensive unskilled and semi-skilled workers, and (ii) to provide $200 123,000 of Egypt’s Emergency Labor- Investment Project access to basic infrastructure services to the target Intensive Investment Project population in poor areas in the Borrower’s territory. SOUTH ASIA The project development objective for the proposed NRLP is to establish effi cient and effective institu- Rural Jobs: Designing Bangladesh, National Rural tional platforms of the rural poor that enable them to TF0A2964 Policies and Programs for the SAR India, Sri P104164 $500 100,000 Livelihoods Project increase household income through sustainable liveli- Next Generation Lanka hood enhancements and improved access to financial J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 and selected public services. Jobs MDTF — Trust Fund Grant Associated Lending Operation # of Project (IDA) (IBRD) bene- Trust Fund No Fund Name Region Country No (PID) Project Name PDO $m $m ficiaries Afghanistan: National Horticulture and To promote adoption of improved production practices P143841 by target farmers, with gradual rollout of farmer-cen- Livestock Productivity Project tric agricultural services systems and investment support. Service delivery centered on farmers AF: Promoting Women’s will promote in practice increased participation of TF0A2967 Livelihoods & Opportunities SAR Afghanistan beneficiaries both in defining the type of services in Select Value Chains required and in the delivery itself. The project would National Horticulture also promote improved ratio of overall costs reaching and Livestock Project beneficiaries as direct investments. The aim is thus to P157997 289,040 (NHLP) - Additional promote sustainability, effectiveness and efficiency. Financing TBD (Lending operation titled “Export TF0A1028 Let’s Work Bangladesh SAR Bangladesh TBD Competitiveness for Jobs” is being planned in $100 Bangladesh) Linking vulnerable youth TBD (A lending operation is being designed on the TF0A0786 with digital employment SAR Pakistan TBD TBD basis of a pilot funded through MDTF funds) opportunities TOTAL $1,838 $780 4,153,987 131 ANNEX F ANNEX G: LIST OF MDTF ACTIVITIES BY COUNTRY AND REGION Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective To support the Solutions for Youth Employment (S4YE) Coalition–which links stakeholders in the private and public S4YE – Global Learning and Global/Multi-Country TF0A0748 364,000 sectors and civil society– in activities aimed at gathering and exchanging knowledge and evidence, bringing together Technical Assistance diverse stakeholders, and using knowledge to achieve high-impact programming for youth employment at scale. To construct a new Global Micro Database that integrates two separate, existing databases: the Global Poverty Working Group (GPWG) database–which provides inputs into the Bank’s official poverty statistics published on Global/Multi-Country TF0A0816 Global Micro Database 300,000 the World Development Indicators and PovCalNet websites–and the International Income Distribution Database (I2D2)–which grew out of the World Development Reports on Inequality and on jobs, containing harmonized versions of 50 variables for 1200 surveys, including a large number of labor variables. To develop the Conflict Exposure Module (CEM), which builds the capacity of government agencies, donors, non-gov- ernmental organizations, and researchers to complement standard household surveys in conflict-affected countries Training Course on Measuring Global/Multi-Country TF0A0828 44,322 with questions featuring the causes, forms, and consequence of violence. This enhances the generation of micro- Violent Conflict data on violence, supporting better research on issues such as the relationship between livelihoods, employment and violence, resulting in better policy design. Tackling Care: Innovative Approaches for Private Sector To build evidence on the business case for providing gender-smart care services at the workplace and develop Companies and Policy Makers to practical approaches the private sector can adopt for their enactment. Many private sector initiatives targeted at Global/Multi-Country TF0A0832 200,000 Retain (female) Talent women are carried out as Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives and are not designed from a business point-of- view, thus, compromising their scale and sustainability. To generate new global knowledge that informs jobs-related analytical and investment activities in four areas of focus: i) private sector jobs creation, ii) obstacles to jobs creation presented by informality, iii) factor that lead Global/Multi-Country TF0A1622 Strategic Directions in Jobs 485,000 to different jobs outcomes for men, women and youth and iv) particular challenges to job creation in fragile and conflicted states. To create and provide indicators on jobs dynamics using enterprise level data to inform policymakers about job Jobs Indicators on Enterprise- Global/Multi-Country TF0A1957 30,000 creation patterns. The grant activity will help launch a new dataset based on firm-level data: JIELD (Jobs Indicators Level Data (JIELD) on Enterprise-Level Data), which will address the problem of scarce firm level indicators and data on job dynamics. To identify the extent to which taxation affects labour market outcomes in the presence of global supply chains and Taxes and Jobs in a Globalized international trade linkages. The analysis will make use of the existing ILOs global structural macro-economic model Global/Multi-Country TF0A4076 100,000 Economy (Global Employment Linkages, GEL) in order to study how changes in taxation are transmitted through international linkages to affect inequality, employment and economic growth. To increase and strengthen the World Bank’s engagement on jobs in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and Support to Jobs in Situations of Global/Multi-Country TF0A4465 305,920 violence, through the development of four integrated FCV jobs strategies, and by informing the design of a jobs Fragility, Conflict, and Violence project to promote peace-building, to be conducted jointly with UN partners. 133 ANNEX G 134 Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective Communications for Lets Work Global/Multi-Country TF0A0936 500,000 This grant will finance ongoing program support activities associated with the Let’s Work Program. Programs Let’s Work Pillar 2—Management Management of the technical deliverables under Pillar 2 of the Lets Work Program with oversight of approximately Global TF0A1353 808,000 of Measurement Deliverables 30 case studies being developed by the Bank and external partners. The objective of the project “Globalization, Labor Markets and Trade Policy” is to empirically examine how trade Globalization, labor markets, and policies and labor market frictions jointly determine the impact of trade shocks on household welfare across the Global TF0A2163 225,000 trade policy income distribution via their impact on household income and consumption choices in order to identify policy options to expand job opportunities and improve incomes. To support Doing Business in developing a new set of indicators to provide quantitative measures on the quality of employment, including (i) broadening the consultation process with various constituencies to ensure the most Global TF0A0783 Measuring Job Quality 100,000 relevant dimensions of job quality are being captured and captured well, and (ii) supporting analytical work using this data. AFR Cash Transfers vs. Matching To compare the traditional matching grants program with a cash transfer program in the Bagre Region of Burkina TF0A2968 Grants for Job Creation in 230000 Faso through an impact evaluation in order to determine which intervention is more effective in creating jobs. MSMEs Burkina Faso Jobs Agenda in Burkina Faso - To deepen understanding of the binding constraints and opportunities for job productivity growth in selected agri- TF0A1689 300,000 Agri-food Value Chains food value chains in Burkina Faso and inform government policies on potential interventions to promote job creation. Public Works and Welfare: Randomized Control Trials in To improve knowledge on the impacts of Public Works Projects (PWPs) on the socio-economic outcomes of the Comoros TF0A0999 675,000 Tunisia and Comoros (Tunisia, long-term unemployed in a fragile country. Comoros) To support (i) follow up data collection among firms for the ongoing, large-scale randomized impact evaluation of apprenticeships–which provide the most common source of skills acquisition for the large informal sector in the Côte d’Ivoire TF0A0731 Côte d’Ivoire Jobs Analytics 289,888 economy, yet for whom the evidence base remains very thin; and (ii) the collection of complementary data and implementation of new analysis in areas where existing data and evidence is relatively limited for a Jobs Diagnostic. Deepening the Jobs Impact To support an impact evaluation of a key sub component of the WBG’s Eastern DRC Recovery Project that will provide of the Public Works Programs livelihood support through labor-intensive public works (LIPW) in fi ve major cities in Eastern DRC. The project aims through Capital Injection and TF0A2965 540,000 are to strengthen resilience and welfare of vulnerable populations in conflict-ridden communities through a wide Social Network Stimulation: J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 range of interventions, including a labor intensive public work program, community driven development support and A Randomized Control Trial in DRC agricultural value chain development. Eastern DRC Soft Skills, Personality Traits To improve labor market policy targeting disadvantaged populations in low- and middle-income countries, specif- TF0A0989 and Jobs in FCV (DRC, Honduras, 300,000 ically, the role of soft skills and personality traits–as complements to vocational/technical training–in improving Mexico) labor market and related life-outcomes for at-risk youth. Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective Youth entrepreneurship and To evaluate the first phase of Ethiopia’s pioneering urban safety net project, generating knowledge on i) the spatial Ethiopia TF0A2670 spatial match in urban labor 300,000 integration of large urban labor markets, ii) targeting of youth entrepreneurship programs, and iii) alternatives to markets in Ethiopia improve matching in wage employment. To carry out an impact evaluation of the National Apprenticeship Program, a nationwide government sponsored Ghana National Apprenticeship Ghana TF0A2927 154,594 apprenticeship program for youth in Ghana, with a view to inform the government on its effectiveness and identify Program impact evaluation options to improve its performance. To assess the demand for skills and generate the necessary evidence on the current and future demands of the Access to Skills and Vocational private sector in Kenya, with the goal of optimizing the design of related government policies and private sector TF0A0808 300,000 Training in Kenya investments. These policies and investments will target strategic sectors and improve the effectiveness of employ- ment activation mechanisms for the most vulnerable groups. Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training for Youth To identify key success factors of Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training Programs (boot camps) and TF0A0831 607,500 Employment (Lebanon, Jordan, measure their impact on employment and employability of youth. Colombia, Kenya) Kenya The DO of this grant is to understand patterns of job creation along a given value chain, focusing on the broader job TF0A2203 Kenya Value Chain Analysis 300,000 impacts across the larger value chains or sectors. The direct and spillover impacts of business training and men- To measure the direct and spillover impacts of business training and mentoring of female entrepreneurs in Kenya TF0A1854 toring of female entrepreneurs: 250,000 through experimental evidence on groups of women who have been through ILO’s Women’s Entrepreneurship experimental evidence from Development program called GET Ahead. Kenya Liberia Youth Opportunities To carry out an Impact Evaluation to address key questions on how to cost-effectively promote self-employment Liberia TF0A2864 350,000 impact evaluation - data and entrepreneurship in fragile and conflict-affected states To develop and evaluate two innovative elements of Madagascar’s new Productive Safety Net Program; (a) the Evaluating Scalable Productive Madagascar TF0A2866 300,000 use of productive spaces and (b) behavioral nudges with the ultimate goal to improve the productive activities of Safety Net Innovations families, including for their better nutrition. The informal sector in the Sahel To provide insight into the poorly understood dynamic of informal firms operating in unstable environments by closing Mali TF0A1069 150,000 (Niger, Mali) data gaps in three cities of the Sahel region-- Bamako (Mali), Niamey (Niger). 135 ANNEX G 136 Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective To i) promote the creation of private sector jobs through a value chain-based approach; ii) increase the productivity TF0A0229 Let’s Work Mozambique 4,600,000 of jobs that already exist; and iii) help connect people to jobs. To identify, through rigorous research, effective policies that can address underlying economic and social gender inequality in Africa, and increase the take-up of these policies by the government and the private sector. This Mozambique Grant will focus on generating knowledge about whether and how non-cognitive entrepreneurial skills help women Improving jobs of smallholder smallholder farmers participate in male-dominated high-value agricultural value chains in Mozambique; the work TF0A2832 300,000 will be done through the Gender Innovation Lab (GIL). women farmers The project seeks to develop, implement, and rigorously measure the impact of a new intervention that will supply smallholder women farmers with both skills and cash grants. The intervention seeks to deepen the impact of a feeder road rehabilitation program led by an active WB project in Mozambique. The informal sector in the Sahel To provide insight into the poorly understood dynamic of informal firms operating in unstable environments by closing Niger TF0A1069 150,000 (Niger, Mali) data gaps in three cities of the Sahel region-- Bamako (Mali), Niamey (Niger). Youth Transitions in Post-Ebola To improve the availability and quality of data and analysis in order to inform youth employment policies and pro- Sierra Leone TF0A0829 300,000 Sierra Leone grams in post-Ebola Sierra Leone and other Ebola-affected, fragile, and post-conflict countries. To design a technical assistance program building on existing diagnostics and strategies and to provide a jobs lens through spatial and value chain diagnostics around catalytic trends of urbanization and the emerging gas cluster in Tanzania TF0A0606 Let’s Work Tanzania 829,366 the South. As with other pilots, the program will also be complemented by a stock-take of WBG and donor operations using a jobs lens, with the objective of informing the design of future interventions for maximizing more, better, and inclusive jobs. To assist the Government of Zambia in the implementation of its Jobs Strategy. The program is aligned with stake- holder priorities–including international finance institutions and the private sector–to promote the creation of more, better, and inclusive jobs. The aim is to develop a set of actionable proposals for investment and advisory Zambia TF019344 Let’s Work Zambia 870,121 solutions that address constraints to private sector-led job growth and labor productivity in specific sub-sectors and linked industries. These proposals will be based upon the best available evidence from past studies in addition to a comprehensive review of labor market and business dynamics, operational solutions, and value chain analysis. EAP Improving the Jobs Impact of the To improve the number and quality of jobs created in the process of relocating industries from China’s coastal TF0A2966 Industrial Development of the 500,000 provinces to inland areas of the country, in particular along the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). Yangtze River Economic Belt Public Transport Access and To (i) expand the knowledge base and understanding of how public transport access is associated with labor TF0A0883 Labor Market Success Evaluation 220,000 market outcomes in Chinese cities (including quality of jobs and job satisfaction) and (ii) promote consideration of J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 China in Chinese Cities mismatches between employment locations and “job-housing” during public transport investment planning. To (i) evaluate factors affecting migrant participation in social insurance programs in China’s urban areas; (ii) examine Labor Market Dynamics and the well-being of rural migrant workers relative to their urban counterparts in urban China; and (iii) provide inputs TF0A1563 Social Protection for Rural to 250,000 to an ongoing survey of rural migrants in urban China to contribute to a public access data set that will facilitate Urban Migrants in China additional research on China’s rural migrants by policy-oriented researchers. Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective To (i) identify factors that lead to the exclusion of young people from the labor market and understand how these Youth Labor Market Exclusion work experiences affect later outcomes (i.e. “scarring”); (ii) inform the design of labor market interventions to put Indonesia TF0A0982 in Indonesia and Philippines 170,000 young people on pathways to productive work; and (iii) demonstrate the value of collecting more information about (Philippines; Indonesia) work conditions. To (i) identify factors that lead to the exclusion of young people from the labor market and understand how these Youth Labor Market Exclusion work experiences affect later outcomes (i.e. “scarring”); (ii) inform the design of labor market interventions to put Philippines TF0A0982 in Indonesia and Philippines 170,000 young people on pathways to productive work; and (iii) demonstrate the value of collecting more information about (Philippines; Indonesia) work conditions. To improve the skills and employability of women and men in the fisheries sector in the Solomon Islands, through an Solomon Islands TF0A0962 Training Women in SolTuna 300,000 innovative activity that tests partnerships with the private sector. An additional focus is placed on building women’s skills for good jobs in non-traditional technical fields. To assist the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, upon their request, in strengthening the collection and analysis of Strengthening jobs data in Vietnam TF0A0882 40,599 Labor Force Survey (LFS) data. The survey was initiated on a quarterly basis in 2011 and is an extremely rich source Vietnam of information which been greatly underutilized. ECA To deepen the jobs impact of a new World Bank project focused on technology adoption and to generate robust GENIE Broadband for evidence to inform policy globally. A unique impact evaluation (IE) will be conducted to significantly improve under- TF0A2640 300,000 Development program standing of the implications of information and communication technology (ICT) adoption and e-commerce on the Georgia growth of and job creation by firms. Georgia Jobs Value Chain To measure the potential direct and indirect jobs impact from targeted investment in particular value chains in TF0A2039 200,000 Analysis Georgia. To deepen knowledge of job quality, access, and productivity in several countries in the Western Balkans–including Kosovo TF0A1361 Let’s Work Western Balkans 820,121 Kosovo–and help the governments develop Jobs Strategies. Jobs MDTF Call 2: Tajikistan TF0A2892/ Performance Based Approach 270,000 The main objective of the project is to generate evidence on innovative approaches to contracting business advisory TF0A2894 to BAS Provision (Recipient)/ /30,000 services in order to improve impact on jobs of interventions supporting SMEs. (Supervisor) Tajikistan To assess the patterns of job creation along given value chains, via surveys, that will fill a critical knowledge gap on TF0A1538 Let’s Work Pillar 2: Tajikistan 300,000 job creation opportunities of the mining and agribusiness sectors –which have a strong potential for private sector investment in Tajikistan. 137 ANNEX G 138 Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective To (i) better understand Turkey’s positive experience in job creation and rapid decline in informality by measuring the effects of distinct policies and initiatives; (ii) extend an important emerging line of inquiry—the role of firm Job Creation and informality TF0A0979 250,000 quality and management—in a developing context, to find how internal firm performance relates to productivity reduction in Turkey and employment; and (iii) ascertain how stable the effects of these changes are in the longer run, whether further Turkey changes need to be made, and what lessons from Turkey can serve as an example to the rest of the world. Socio-emotional skills for higher To examine the impact of an intervention that provides job-seekers with evidence-based tools to set goals (e.g. TF0A0787 youth employability – Learning 585,000 finding a job) and practical strategies to persevere and sustain the motivation to overcome obstacles and failures from an RCT in Turkey in their pursuit of successful labor market (re)integration, with a special focus on unemployed youth and women. Improving Employment Services To respond to the State Employment Services of Ukraine’s request for assistance by making recommendations to Ukraine TF0A0974 for Vulnerable Populations in 300,000 better serve vulnerable populations through improved information on labor market. Ukraine SAR Promoting Women’s Livelihoods To improve knowledge and results with respect to promoting income generation and increasing the engagement of TF0A2967 & Opportunities in Select Value 700,000 women in rural and peri-urban areas of Afghanistan through entrepreneurship and select value chains. Chains Afghanistan To improve the understanding of the impact of violent conflict on economic activity and job creation in Afghanistan. Afghanistan: Conflict and Private The proposed work will i) identify the industrial landscape in Afghanistan; ii) understand firms structure and the TF0A2657 250,000 Sector factors driving and constraining their growth and job creation; and iii) assess the interaction between firm dynamics and localized or general conflict. To identify which aspects of formality employees desire most and employers might be willing to provide, in the Improving Job Quality of Informal TF0A0782 300,000 context of Bangladesh, thus shedding light on whether it would be valuable and feasible to extend specific aspects Jobs in Bangladesh of formality to informal jobs. To examine the experience of selected projects from the World Bank’s rural portfolio to assess the jobs impact of Rural Jobs: Designing Policies and these projects to gather more granular insights on what types of interventions and design features are successful TF0A2964 Programs for the Next Generation 500,000 Bangladesh in generating more and better rural jobs, and in particular jobs that are more appealing and suited to the youth and (Bangladesh, India) women. J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 To identify and develop opportunities to leverage and support the private sector in creating more and better jobs in Bangladesh by i) building a stronger understanding of job dynamics (supply and demand) including both formal and TF0A1028 Let’s Work Bangladesh 1,025,151 informal labor markets; ii) designing short-term, bottom-up, pilot interventions in specific sectors that offer high potential for the creation of inclusive jobs; and iii) doing groundwork–via consultations with government, the private sector, and other stakeholders -for the operationalization of a medium-term jobs agenda. Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective Rural Jobs: Designing Policies and To examine the experience of selected projects from the World Bank’s rural portfolio to assess the jobs impact of these TF0A2964 Programs for the Next Generation 500,000 projects to gather more granular insights on what types of interventions and design features are successful in gen- (Bangladesh, India) erating more and better rural jobs, and in particular jobs that are more appealing and suited to the youth and women. Roads to Jobs – accelerating the To (i) assess the impact of the development corridors approach on specific value chains and the potential to improve India TF0A0859 development impact of roads in 300,000 the income prospects of rural farmers and (ii) better understand job creation opportunities in ancillary areas that Rajasthan, India will emerge along the value chains. Labor Market Big Data Analysis To work with Babajobs–an Indian on-line job matching service–and (i) use big data to analyze and forecast the for Skills Forecast and Improved 150,000 trends in skill demand and (ii) evaluate the potential impact of reducing information gaps between job seekers and Matching employers on improving job-matching in both the formal and informal labor markets. Linking Vulnerable Youth with To train up to 1,200-1,500 youth in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan, and provide post-training Pakistan TF0A0786 300,000 Digital Employment Opportunities support and guidance, so that trainees can access online income generating opportunities. Shared prosperity in SAR labor To assess welfare implications of trade by estimating worker-level adjustment costs for different worker groups in South Asia TF0A1876 markets-- entangled: workers’ 200,000 South Asia. This will help fill in a critical gap in literature and also help policymakers target aid to affected workers adjustment to trade and design programs to help the economy allocate resources efficiently. LAC Big Data Analysis for New Evidence-based Answers on the Impact of Labor and Vocational Brazil TF0A0781 Training Programs and the Role 50,000 To study the impact of welfare and vocational training programs on learning and earnings. of Films’ Dynamics: Follow-up Research Work on Skills and Jobs in Brazil Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training for Youth To identify key success factors of Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training Programs (boot camps) and TF0A0831 607,500 Employment (Lebanon, Jordan, measure their impact on employment and employability of youth. Colombia Colombia, Kenya) Microenterprise Supply To test the impact of a technology which shortens supply chains for small vendors by aggregating their orders and TF0A2275 250,000 Intermediate in Colombia cutting out the middleman. We are interested in the impact of this on their travel times, prices, and firm incomes. Data, Diagnostics and To enhance policy-making to improve labor market efficiency–specifically, the inclusion of the poor and vulnerable Ecuador TF0A1438 Institutional Innovations for Jobs 200,000 – by improving data, job diagnostics, and institutional innovations in Ecuador. in Ecuador Access to jobs in large urban To support analytical work that will contribute to better understanding the challenges in terms of access to jobs Haiti TF0A2893 300,000 areas in Haiti and connectivity in large urban areas in Haiti. 139 ANNEX G 14 0 Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective Soft Skills, Personality Traits To improve labor market policy targeting disadvantaged populations in low- and middle-income countries, specif- Honduras TF0A0989 and Jobs in FCV (DRC, Honduras, 300,000 ically, the role of soft skills and personality traits–as complements to vocational/technical training–in improving Mexico) labor market and related life-outcomes for at-risk youth. Soft Skills, Personality Traits To improve labor market policy targeting disadvantaged populations in low- and middle-income countries, specif- Mexico TF0A0989 and Jobs in FCV (DRC, Honduras, 300,000 ically, the role of soft skills and personality traits–as complements to vocational/technical training–in improving Mexico) labor market and related life-outcomes for at-risk youth. Improving Access to Markets To generate evidence on how to effectively leverage agricultural productivity and employment through increased through Rural Roads mobility. More specifically, to understand which complementary interventions are needed to ensure that communi- TF0A2983 Rehabilitation in Nicaragua 300,000 ties benefiting from the World Bank-funded Rural Roads Rehabilitation Project fully take advantage of rehabilitated – Overcoming Additional roads to search for new jobs or engage in entrepreneurship. Constraints Nicaragua CCT Plus: Combining conditional To finance the provision of long-term evidence on the effectiveness of a productive safety nets program targeted at cash transfers, vocational training rural poor in a low-income setting. Specifically, to support a long term follow-up survey and measures the effects TF0A0739 and business grants – long term 540,000 of Atención a Crisis–an income generation and productive safety net intervention implemented in 2005 and 2006 evaluation of a randomized trial in in six of the poorest municipalities in rural Nicaragua. Nicaragua To support the Government in developing a jobs strategy with a focus on the bottom 40 percent of the population, including analytical work, new data collection, and piloting of M&E measures that support the following areas of Paraguay TF0A1027 Let’s Work Paraguay 820,121 focus: (i) promoting the creation of private sector jobs; (ii) increasing the productivity of jobs that already exist; and (iii) helping connect people to jobs. To develop an analytical framework to explain pathways towards formalization for both enterprises and labor. Using a unique panel-structured firm survey for Peru that contains information about various levels of formalization, the Peru TF0A2368 Pathway to Formality 60,000 framework would be tested with actual data and relevant formality characteristics. Depending on budget and data availability, the framework may also be tested in other countries, such as Colombia. MENA J O B S U M B R E L L A M U LT I D O N O R T R U S T F U N D A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 7 Public Works and Welfare: In 2012, the WB approved a $200 million loan to the Government of Egypt, funding the Emergency Labor Intensive A Randomized Control Trial Investment Project with a large cash for work program; over 80 percent of the project funding has been disbursed. Egypt TF0A2453 250,000 of Egypt’s Emergency Labor- This grant provides funding to conduct an impact evaluation that will establish the effectiveness of this safety net Intensive Investment Project during periods of economic distress, and to what extent it contributes to the livelihoods of beneficiaries. Grant Country TF# Project Size ($) Objective Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training for Youth To identify key success factors of Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training Programs (boot camps) and TF0A0831 607,500 Employment (Lebanon, Jordan, measure their impact on employment and employability of youth. Colombia, Kenya) Entrepreneurship Pilot to Promote To design, implement, and rigorously evaluate the impact of an entrepreneurship pilot to vitalize the Jordanian economy. TF0A2900 Economic Opportunities for 750,000 The pilot will promote innovative entrepreneurship opportunities to both Jordanians and Syrians in order to create jobs, Jordan Jordanians and Syrians increase refugees’ contribution to the host economy, and incubate the future post-conflict Syrian economy in Jordan. The objective of the grant is increased productivity in target factories comprising the 12 existing satellite factories and 4 subcontractor factories. However, after the conclusion of this 18-month grant financed activity, in the lon- Productivity in Jordanian SME TF0A2972 300,000 ger-term, the interventions are expected to lead to increased profitability of these factories and ultimately to an garment factories increased share of Jordanians in the garment industry in Jordan. IFC may be able to carry out a post-implementation M&E to follow on these interesting effects. Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training for Youth 607,500 To identify key success factors of Technology and Entrepreneurship Rapid Skills Training Programs (boot camps) and TF0A0831 Employment (Lebanon, Jordan, measure their impact on employment and employability of youth. Colombia, Kenya) Lebanon Lebanon Subsidized Temporary The initial objective of the grant was to implement activities that will further design and launch the new flagship TF0A2901 Employment Program (Capital for 1,000,000 employment program of the Government of Lebanon: the Subsidized Temporary Employment Program (STEP). Private Jobs) Value Chain for Jobs Analysis in To understand value chain and supply chain dynamics in Northern Lebanon in order to estimate the job and earning TF0A1539 307,000 North Lebanon impacts of investments in high informality and fragile/ conflict-affected environments. Morocco: Impact Evaluation This Grant will contribute to the ongoing Impact Evaluation (IE) of the Morocco Strengthening Micro-Entrepreneurship of Micro-Entrepreneurship for 275,000 for Disadvantaged Youth Project (P144134). The project development objective (PDO) is to provide young men and Morocco TF0A0858 Disadvantaged Youth in the women between the age of 18 and 29 in the Project Areas with access to micro-entrepreneurship development Informal Sector services. To identify some of the most binding constraints affecting the creation and productivity of jobs within targeted value chains in a lagging region and to inform future projects to help tackle these constraints. This will be guided by a TF0A1352 Let’s Work Tunisia 820,121 specially designed instrument that maps value chains and assesses constraints to growth and employment creation, as well as a capacity building program addressed towards local administrations (active in the lagging region) on Tunisia value chain analysis and business development services. Public Works and Welfare: Randomized Control Trials in To improve knowledge on the impacts of Public Works Projects (PWPs) on the socio-economic outcomes of the TF0A0999 675,000 Tunisia and Comoros (Tunisia, long-term unemployed in a fragile country. Comoros) To develop new Jobs-focused instruments to determine the private and social returns of job creation through private Finance for Jobs in Palestine: project finance investments in Palestine. This activity will establish a robust methodology and baseline of data to West Bank and GAZA TF0A2341 Jobs Measurement and 200,000 enable an assessment of the net jobs and other economic and social outcomes generated from the Finance for Jobs Methodologies (CGE and SCBA) project interventions. 14 1 ANNEX G ANNEX H: RESULTS FRAMEWORK ANNEX H Development Objective MDTF Windows 1: Jobs Diagnostics, Strategies and Operations The objective of the MDTF is to support the design and imple- mentation of the World Bank Group’s jobs strategy, which aims 2: Job and Private Sector (Let’s Work) to help design and deliver comprehensive, integrated and high impact jobs strategies for all relevant sectors in client countries; 3: Jobs for Youth and to advance global knowledge about the most effective policies and actions for sustainable jobs, especially for the most 4: Jobs in Fragile & Conflict States (FCS) vulnerable groups. 5: Research Higher-level outcome/impact: Improved employment and earning opportunities Delivered to Outputs Desired Outcomes date (Overall Targets FY16-19) (FY16-17 Q3) 1. Policy recommendations (21 Policy Notes) 6 2. Innovative jobs country pilot operations/ invest- 18 ments (28) 3. Beneficiaries / participants in pilot programs/ 1. Improved labor market policy, program or strategy design n/a RCTs (34,620) and / or implementation 4. Improved data and/or access to data through new 22 2. Improved policy dialogues and / or coordination among collection, compilation, and dissemination (46) partners 5. Study, report, or research paper on jobs dimen- 25 3. Private sector mainstreamed in framing of jobs challenges sions (40) or solutions 6. Design and/or implementation of jobs tools/tool- 3 kits and/or guidelines (24) 4. Innovative interventions/operations for job creation 7. Standardized measurement approaches and 5. Improved stakeholder capacity in the area of jobs 7 methodologies (11) 6. New methods and approaches to estimation of job effects 8. Stocktake, gap map and/or strategy for jobs 3 evidence (28) 7. Improved knowledge or evidence base on jobs challenges and solutions 9. Impact or other evaluations on jobs (28) 4 8. Improved knowledge sharing and leveraging among jobs practitioners / partnerships 10. Dissemination events on learnings and findings 20 (47) (at least 80% of supported projects) 11. Web-based knowledge platform (3) 3 12. Job Practitioners Network and/or Coalition (9) 0 Notes: • Based on the simplified Results Framework (RF) of 1 November 2015. • Overall targets are based on original RF minus the outputs of the 10 dropped grants. • The Results Framework and targets will be revised and updated based on new call-for-proposals and donor consultations. 143 © 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development  / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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