The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Central Asia | Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2011 | Seq No: 15 | ARCHIVED on 10-Jun-2019 | ISR37262 | Implementing Agencies: Tajikhydromet, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Finance, Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC-IFAS), EC-IFAS Regional Center of Hydrology (RCH), Ministry of Emergency Situations Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 26-May-2011 Effectiveness Date: 11-Nov-2011 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 06-Oct-2014 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 17-May-2014 Original Closing Date: 31-Aug-2016 Revised Closing Date: 31-Mar-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) is to improve the accuracy and timeliness of hydromet services in Central Asia, with particular focus on Kyrgyz Republic and Republic of Tajikistan. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component A: Strengthening regional coordination and information sharing and services:(Cost $12.20 M) Component B: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Kyrgyz Republic:(Cost $11.00 M) Component C: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Republic of Tajikistan:(Cost $16.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions CAHMP has played a key role in enhancing collaboration, information sharing and capacity building among four NMHSs in Central Asia. The project has made substantial progress in strengthening regional collaboration and institutional capacity of the four involved NMHSs. Through joint capacity building such as forecaster training, NMHS technical staff have developed operational relationships for collaboration, mutual support and recognition of the regional and national benefits of data sharing. The Project has also provided a management-level platform for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to closely collaborate, build consensus on forward-looking enhancements and agree the aspects of weather/climate and hydrological information services that need to be managed with a regional dimension. For example, the four countries are collaborating on establishing operational regional numerical weather prediction, to be operated on behalf of the region by the RSMC Tashkent 6/10/2019 Page 1 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) (Regional Specialized Meteorology Center hosted by Uzhydromet). Under the Additional Financing, Turkmenistan has now joined the Project, and extra efforts are being undertaken to ensure its rapid integration in the Project and the related regional systems. KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are improving their services and therefore their utility for government ministries, partners and the public. Within KyrgzyHydromet and TajikHydromet, mindsets and perceptions have gradually shifted from a traditional government scientific agency approach focusing on technical activities, to a more user-oriented service provider approach, increasingly focusing on understanding and meeting user information needs. Promoting this cultural shift, the Project has supported activities such as preparation and subsequent approval of business development plans for KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet, which have further improved the potential for sustainability. In both cases, the statuses and budgets of these agencies have increased during project implementation, indicating improved recognition by government, in response to improved performance. In addition, KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are now able to contribute more information and expertise to regional efforts, for example leading the identification of regional capacity building needs for certain themes under the Bank’s Strengthening Early Warning of Mountain Hazards in Central Asia (P158373) technical assistance project. 6/10/2019 Page 2 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 6/10/2019 Page 3 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 6/10/2019 Page 4 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Moderate Substantial Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program -- Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Low Low Stakeholders -- Substantial Substantial Other -- -- -- Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Accuracy of hydrometeorological forecasts improved IN00707210 ►Increased accuracy of river flow forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM: 87% KgHM: 85% KgHM: 86% Value KgHM 62% TjHM 64% TjHM: 75% TjHM: 80% TjHM: 80% Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 IN00707221 ►Increased accuracy and timeliness of basic weather forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 76% for KgHM and 66% for TjHM KgHM: 94.7% KgHM: 85% KgHM: 92% Value TjHM: 87% TjHM: 85% TjHM: 85% Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 6/10/2019 Page 5 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Increased user satisfaction, including regarding timeliness, with hydrometeorological services IN00707209 ►Increased user satisfaction with hydrometeorological services (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM: 2.80 KgHM: 3.81 KgHM: 4.3 KgHM: 3.81 Value TjHM: 4.26 TjHM: 2.90 TjHM: 4.26 TjHM: 4.3 Date 17-Jun-2016 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component A: Strengthening regional coordination and information sharing. IN00707222 ►(Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 1): Improved access to national and regional numeric weather prediction products to all CA countries (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Central Asia NMHS community has access to global numerical COSMO-CA model at products from ECMWF, 6.6 km and 2.2 km Roshydromet, CMA, JMA resolutions, producing and KMA. forecasts every 6 hours, is currently in SWFDP-CA operational testing Website/Portal mode at the RSMC (http://swfdp- Tashkent (Regional ca.meteoinfo.ru) is Specialized operational. Meteorological Center 7x7 km every 6 hours hosted by for all of Central Asia 100x250 km transmitted Uzhydromet, Uzhydromet). Value every 12 hours Kyrgyzhydromet and 2x2 km every 6 hours Tajikhydromet have An initial list of for the mountainous licensed COSMO COSMO-CA products region of Central Asia software and has been developed maintenance for the and is being reviewed WMO RSMC (Tashkent). by the Central Asian National COSMO-CA model at 13 Meteorological and km resolution, producing Hydrological Services forecasts every 6 hours, (NMHSs) is currently in testing mode. Date 10-Dec-2015 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 IN00707225 ►(Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 2): Established platform for integration of four NHMSs in CA (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Common methodology to Common methodology Regional approach Lack of agreed regional verify hydromet to verify hydromet adopted in hydromet Value approaches on forecasting accuracy forecasting accuracy forecasting and knowledge exchange developed and used. developed and used. decision-making 6/10/2019 Page 6 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) and emergency mechanism for procedures Partial modernization of Partial modernization regional issues the WMO Regional of the WMO Regional formalized among the Specialized Specialized four NHMSs in CA Meteorological Center Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tashkent (RSMC) Tashkent completed. completed. System of access to System of access to online information online information products based on products based on satellite data in satellite data in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Republic, Tajikistan Uzbekistan established. and Uzbekistan established. Guidelines and approaches for regional Guidelines and emergency warning approaches for procedures regional emergency communicated to CA warning procedures NHMSs for operational communicated to CA use. NHMSs for operational use. Regional training center on lakes and water Regional training reservoirs established for center on lakes and CA specialists based at water reservoirs Cholpon-Ata Lake established for CA Observatory of specialists based at Kyrgyzhydromet. Cholpon-Ata Lake Observatory of Distance Learning Kyrgyzhydromet. System (DLS) installed in RCH EC IFAS, Distance Learning Kyrgyzhydromet, System (DLS) installed Tajikhydromet and in RCH EC IFAS, Uzhydromet. DLS Kyrgyzhydromet, branches are currently Tajikhydromet and being launched in Astana Uzhydromet. DLS (Kazakhstan), Osh branches are nearly (Kyrgyzstan) and Bokhtar operational in Astana (Tajikistan). (Kazakhstan), Osh (Kyrgyzstan) and Supply and installation of Bokhtar (Tajikistan). training equipment for NWP at national and Supply and installation regional levels (4 CA of training equipment NHMSs) is completed in for NWP at national WMO RSMC (Tashkent). and regional levels (4 CA NHMSs) is Supply and installation of completed in WMO training equipment for CA RSMC (Tashkent). NHMSs to support re- training and capacity Supply and installation development of of training equipment observation units for CA NHMSs to completed (RCH EC support re-training and IFAS, Kyrgyzhydromet, capacity development Tajikhydromet and of observation units Uzhydromet). completed (RCH EC IFAS, Kyrgyzhydromet, 6/10/2019 Page 7 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Tajikhydromet and Uzhydromet). Date 10-Dec-2015 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 30-Jun-2018 IN00707228 ►(Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 3): Improved access to landslide, mudflow and snowmelt guidance for all CA countries (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target CARFFGS provides CARFFGS provides only flash flood, landslide, flash flood guidance riverine routing and Value same as baseline same as baseline products across the snowmelt guidance region products across the region Date 02-Mar-2018 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 Component B: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Kyrgyz Republic. IN00707223 ►(Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 13% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 56% of meteostations 100% of meteostations gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo parameters parameters. parameters. parameters 44% of stream gauges 100% of stream gauges 70% of stream gauges 93% of stream gauges Value reporting operational reporting operational reporting operational reporting operational data data. data. data 70% stream gauges 95% stream gauges 83% stream gauges 87% stream gauges measuring discharges measuring discharges. measuring discharges. measuring discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 The reduction in the current value of the indicators verses the previous reporting period is due to the planned scaling up of observation station rehabilitation under CAHMP Additional Financing. The targets Comments: now reflect more stations to rehabilitate than planned (and delivered) under the CAHMP Original Financing, so the current status also reflects a lower delivery rate. IN00707226 ►(Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 86.00 99.85% 100% 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 IN00707229 ►(Component B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 3) Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 2,125,000 pages 2,268,980 pages Value 0.00 800,000 scanned scanned Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 30-Jun-2018 IN00707231 6/10/2019 Page 8 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) ►(Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 4) Increased institutional strength and sustainability of Kyrgyzhydromet (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM prepared a list of operational KgHM prepared a list of guidelines necessary operational guidelines for operations in light necessary for operations of modernized in light of modernized infrastructure; the infrastructure; the terms terms of reference to of reference to draft draft these is being these is being developed. developed. “Fee-for-service” “Fee-for-service” arrangements have been arrangements have New regulations piloted in few sectors, been piloted in few developed. resulting in a 7% Existing legal structure, sectors, resulting in a increase in the special operating procedures 7% increase in the New standard account funds. The and staffing are special account funds. operating procedures Marketing Department inadequate to meet The Marketing developed. has initiated regular Value KgHM mission#s needs. Department has quality survey initiated regular quality New business plan assessments of users, Investment and O&M survey assessments of developed. and is implementing needs far exceed KgHM users, and is simplification of the budgets. implementing Budget significantly payment system for simplification of the increased. KgHM services. payment system for KgHM services. KgHM budget is now sufficient to cover O&M KgHM budget is now needs of regular sufficient to cover operations. O&M needs of regular operations. Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 Component C: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Republic of Tajikistan. IN00707224 ►(Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 19% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 90% of meteostations gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo parameters parameters parameters parameters 16% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges Value reporting operational reporting operational reporting operational reporting operational data data data data 49% stream gauges 61% stream gauges 61% stream gauges 71% stream gauges measuring discharges measuring discharges measuring discharges measuring discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 IN00707227 6/10/2019 Page 9 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) ►(Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 70.00 96.60 97.70 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 IN00707230 ►(Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 3) Increased sustainability and strengthened performance of Tajikhydromet operations (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target New regulations developed. Existing legal structure, operating procedures Overall concept of Overall concept of New standard and staffing are Tajikhydromet business Tajikhydromet operating procedures inadequate to meet TjHM plan is now under business plan is now developed. Value mission needs. implementation. under implementation. New business plan Investment and O&M developed. needs far exceed TjHM budgets. Budget significantly increased. Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 IN00707232 ►(Component C Tajikistan, IRI 4): Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1,130,500 pages - 1,130,500 pages - Value 0.00 scanning of data is scanning of data is 800,000 complete complete Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 30-Jun-2018 IN00707233 ►(Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 5) Increased reliability of climate data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Information on climate Ability to downscale local Ability to downscale Ability to downscale to Value limited and of inadequate scales for at least 90% of local scales for at least local scales for at least quality the country 90% of the country 90% of the country Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2018 31-May-2019 30-Jun-2018 Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P120788 IDA-49340 Effective USD 5.10 5.10 0.00 4.69 0.00 100% 6/10/2019 Page 10 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) P120788 IDA-62940 Effective USD 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.49 0% P120788 IDA-D3520 Effective USD 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.49 0% Not P120788 IDA-D3560 USD 3.50 3.50 0.00 0.00 3.50 0% Effective Not P120788 IDA-D3620 USD 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 0% Effective P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective USD 8.70 8.70 0.00 7.97 0.00 100% P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective USD 0.90 0.90 0.00 0.87 0.00 100% P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective USD 6.00 6.00 0.00 5.55 0.00 100% P120788 TF-99848 Closed USD 7.00 7.00 0.00 7.00 0.00 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P120788 IDA-49340 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Mar-2021 P120788 IDA-62940 Effective 01-Aug-2018 26-Nov-2018 15-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 P120788 IDA-D3520 Effective 01-Aug-2018 26-Nov-2018 15-May-2019 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 Not P120788 IDA-D3560 01-Aug-2018 -- -- 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 Effective Not P120788 IDA-D3620 01-Aug-2018 -- -- 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 Effective P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective 26-May-2011 12-Jul-2011 12-Jan-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Mar-2021 P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Mar-2021 P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective 26-May-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 31-Mar-2021 P120788 TF-99848 Closed 13-Jul-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 31-Dec-2018 Cumulative Disbursements 6/10/2019 Page 11 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 28-Jan-2016 ,Level 2 Approved on 23-Mar-2018 Related Project(s) P164780-Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) Additional Financing 6/10/2019 Page 12 of 12