AFGHANISTAN DEVELOPMENT BRIEF FOOD INSECURITY IN AFGHANISTAN Five key policy-relevant findings about food insecurity May 2019 To pi c: P ov e r t y, F ood Se c ur i t y Food security has This brief highlights five key policy-relevant findings about food insecurity in Afghanistan prior increased in line with to the 2018 drought. These findings are based on analysis of the Afghanistan Living Conditions poverty and 13 million Surveys (ALCS, National Statistics and Information Authority, GoIRA). Afghans (or 45 percent of the population) are food insecure in 2016-17. Food insecurity and malnutrition are some of the most serious manifestations of protracted crises as they disrupt livelihoods and markets. Afghans have lived through foreign intervention, civil war, insurgency, and widespread insecurity for decades, severely disrupting Afghanistan’s economic growth trajectory. Over half of the Afghan population, approximately 16 million people, lives below the poverty line in 2016-17, a sharp increase over the last decade. Food insecurity has increased in line with poverty and 13 million Afghans (or 45 percent of the population) are food insecure. Of these, an estimated 3.9 million are very severely, 4.1 million severely and 5.0 million are moderately food insecure with a larger number and proportion of the rural population affected by food insecurity. Changing climatic conditions, a growing population, and other environmental stressors will likely have significant impact on food security going forward. The diet of the Afghan population is not only inadequate in quantity, it is also qualitatively poor. Overall, half of the population has poor or borderline food consumption, highest in rural residents and 30 percent of Afghans do not consume adequate protein (at least 50 grams per person per day) from their food basket. Inadequate food quantity and quality can particularly have severe effects on the nearly 1.4 million children under the age of five who are vulnerable to malnutrition. It is important to put the timing of the survey findings in context. The latest round of ALCS was collected prior to Afghanistan entering drought conditions due to deficit rain and snowfall of past years. The impacts of the current drought are severe in some areas of Afghanistan and an estimated 2.6 million people nationwide require urgent humanitarian action to reduce their food deficits and to protect their livelihoods, survive until the next harvest, and prepare for next year’s planting season. 1. PRE-DROUGHT FOOD INSECURITY WAS HIGH AND INCREASING, ESPECIALLY IN WINTER MONTHS, AND IN SOME OF THE DROUGHT-AFFECTED PROVINCES Food insecurity was on the The share of the food insecure Afghan population (defined as caloric deficiency with respect to rise prior to the 2018 a threshold required to lead a healthy life) increased from 28 percent in 2007-08 to 45 percent drought, and has a clear in 2016-17 (Figure 1). As food expenditures account for more than half of all expenditures, spatial and seasonal deteriorating food insecurity is reflected in the sharp increase in poverty rates. dimension. Food security has a clear spatial dimension. Over three quarters of Afghans who were considered food insecure in 2016-17—10 million people—lived in rural areas. About 50 percent of food insecure lived in just one third of Afghanistan’s provinces. Food insecurity was particularly high in some of the provinces most severely affected by the 2018 drought in the north of Afghanistan. For example, over 60 percent of the population in Badakhshan and 50 percent of the population in Badghis and Daykundi were already food insecure in 2016-17. Seasonal hunger is a pervasive feature of food insecurity in Afghanistan. In 2016-17, food insecurity was much higher during the winter months: compared to a yearly average of 37 percent of the population experiencing adequate food security, in the winter months, this drops to 17 percent (Figure 2). Food insecurity in Afghanistan Figure 1: Poverty and food security, 2007-2016 Figure 2: Food insecurity by season, 2016-17 70% Adequately Food Secure Borderline Food Secure 60% Moderately Food Insecure Severely Food Insecure Very Severely Food Insecure 50% 40% 20% 44% 41% 39% 51% 12% 30% 20% 19% 17% 16% 17% 10% 17% 21% 18% 17% 16% 0% 16% 14% 2007 2011 2016 2007 2011 2016 2007 2011 2016 13% 13% 27% 10% 10% 7% 11% 14% National Urban Rural Food insecure (%) Poverty rate (%) SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN W INTER TOTAL Sources and notes: WB estimates based on NRVA 2007-08, NRVA 2011-12, and ALCS 2016-17 2. LACK OF INCOMES, POOR DIETARY DIVERSITY AND INADEQUATE NUTRITION UNDERPIN OVERLAPPING FOOD SECURITY DEFICIENCIES Food insecurity and lack Food insecurity is related to lack of incomes: of the 13 million food insecure Afghans, 9.7 million of incomes are closely are poor. The poorest 20 percent of the population consumed only 11 food items on average, related and reflected in half the number of items consumed by the richest 20 percent. There is evidence of poor dietary insufficient dietary diversity among Afghan households, and a heavy reliance on staple cereals as a source of cheap diversity. calories. Three quarters of calories of poor Afghans comes from cereals alone, predominantly from wheat. Non-poor Afghans also consume two-thirds of their calories from cereals, but their consumption basket is a little more diversified with higher shares of dairy products. About 35 percent of Afghans do not consume a diet of sufficient quality—inadequate dietary diversity has almost doubled between 2011-12 and 2016-17, especially in rural areas (Figure 3Figure 1). Poor dietary diversity implies that the Afghan diet often lacks adequate proteins and other micro-nutrients. In 2016-17, 36 percent of Afghans did not consume a sufficient number of proteins per day (less than 50 grams per day). Protein deficiency doubled in the past 10 years, with Afghans living in rural areas experiencing a much larger deterioration in protein intake compared to urban areas (Figure 4). Afghans are often food insecure on multiple dimensions. 6 out of 10 Afghans are insecure on at least one measure of food security, 4 out of 10 are insecure on at least two measures, and 1 out of 5 Afghans are insecure on all three dimensions (Table 1). Figure 3: Percentage of population with inadequate dietary Figure 4: Percentage of population with protein deficiency, diversity, 2007-2016 2007-2016 40 35 38.5 34.9 30 25 20 23.1 15 21.3 19.8 21.2 19.4 10 13.8 13.3 5 0 2007-08 2011-12 2016-17 National 17.2 24.5 35.8 2007-08 2011-12 2016-17 Urban 17.4 24.2 30.8 National Urban Rural Rural 17.2 24.5 37.3 Sources and notes: WB estimates based on NRVA 2007-08, NRVA 2011-12, and ALCS 2016-17 AFGHANISTAN DEVELOPMENT BRIEF 2 Food insecurity in Afghanistan Table 1: Millions of Afghans with deficiencies in their diet, ALCS 2016-17 Inadequate dietary diversity and protein deficiency --- Adequate diversity --- --- Inadequate diversity --- Not deficient in Deficient in Not deficient in Deficient in Caloric deficiency protein protein protein protein Not deficient in 11.8 0.4 3.4 0.4 calories Deficient in calories 2.6 4.2 0.9 5.5 Sources and notes: WB estimates based on ALCS 2016-17. 3. INACCESSIBILITY LEADS TO CHRONIC FOOD SECURITY RISKS Households living in hard About 12 percent of the Afghan population lives in areas with low accessibility to markets to reach areas face (which is measured by whether households live more than 12 hours (by foot or bicycle) away significantly higher risks from the nearest market or report having no market accessible) (Figure 5). These households of food security. do much worse in terms of food security outcomes. Over half of all households with low accessibility to markets are calorically deficient, 45 percent are protein deficient, and 60 percent have an inadequate dietary diversity. Similarly, households living in areas where the nearest market had no food items available (9 percent of all households) perform worse on all food security measures (Figure 6). Figure 5: Food insecurity measures by market accessibility, Figure 6: Food insecurity measures by market food 2016-17 availability, 2016-17 Market accessible (less than 12h) Nearest market had food items available Inaccessible to markets (12h or more) Nearest market had no food items available 59.6 58.4 54.5 52.1 48.3 44.7 41.9 41.4 37.3 36.9 32.8 32.2 INADEQUATE PROTEIN CALORIC INADEQUATE PROTEIN CALORIC DIETARY DEFICIENCY DEFICIENCY DIETARY DEFICIENCY DEFICIENCY DIVERSITY % % % DIVERSITY % % % Sources and notes: WB estimates based on ALCS 2016-17 Given the country’s geography, households who live in hard to reach areas will always face significantly higher risks of food insecurity either because they live far from markets or because their nearest market may not be well stocked. Indeed, 19 percent of households reported either lack of market access or lack of food availability in their nearest market. While household surveys cannot be sufficiently geographically disaggregated to identify specific districts of this type of chronic risk, some provinces stand out. For instance, more than 50 percent of interviewed clusters in Badghis, Sar-e-Pul, Samangan, and Badakhshan reported no market access, and this number increased to 90 percent in Ghor. More than 40 percent of interviewed clusters in Nooristan, Paktika, Ghor and Paktya reported no food availability; and 43 percent of interviewed clusters in Ghor and 12 percent of interviewed clusters in Nooristan reported having neither a market within 12 hours by foot or bicycle nor any food availability at the nearest market. 4. AFGHAN HOUSEHOLDS RELY OF SELF PRODUCTION OF FOOD AND IN TIMES OF DROUGHT, THEY CANNOT COMPENSATE THE LOSS OF SELF-PRODUCED FOOD THROUGH PURCHASES ON THE MARKET Afghan households’ heavy On average, 15 percent of food expenditures of Afghan households comes through self- reliance on self- production. This reliance is twice as high in certain provinces – Urozgan, Farah, Bamyan, production of food makes Kunarha, Badghis, Ghor and Nooristan. Self-production of food is particularly important for AFGHANISTAN DEVELOPMENT BRIEF 3 Food insecurity in Afghanistan them doubly vulnerable to households dependent on vulnerable employment as own-account workers and unpaid family food insecurity risks by work, and for households whose primary source of livelihoods is farming or livestock. For the reducing their ability to latter, one quarter of all food expenditures are sourced from self-production. Across the produce food as well as country, self-produced items are part of the staple food basket of households and include their ability to generate income. wheat, barley, maize, dried meat, milk and milk products, and eggs. A simulation exercise suggests that overall caloric deficiency would increase to 57 percent for the country as a whole if self-production of food went to zero with no change in household incomes (Figure 7). In times of drought, agricultural households face a dual challenge, as their main source of livelihoods falters, and they lose a significant share of food consumption that is self-produced. For these households, even if food is available in local markets, their ability to generate incomes to purchase food becomes severely compromised. Indeed, agricultural households would face rates of food insecurity as high as 65 percent, and provinces where farming and livestock are the predominant sources of livelihoods such as Nooristan, Ghor, and Badghis (provinces with high reported lack of market access) would experience the highest increases in food insecurity (Figure 8) Figure 7: Simulation: Estimated increases in caloric deficiency due to a complete loss of self-produced food, by main sector and province Including self production Excluding self production 65.3 58.6 57.4 53.6 51.9 47.6 46.4 44.2 44.2 42.8 42.5 41.8 38.8 36.1 CONSTRUCTION TOTAL AGRICULTURE SERVICES HEALTH AND EDU PUBLIC SECTOR MANUFACTURING Sources and notes: WB estimates based on ALCS 2016-17 Figure 8: Increase in caloric deficiency in the absence of self-production 36.6 37.2 31.7 27.3 25.9 25.6 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.1 18.0 14.9 14.6 13.8 13.5 13.4 13.1 11.7 11.3 10.8 10.7 10.1 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.0 6.7 6.5 5.8 2.1 2.0 0.9 JAWZJAN BADAKHSHAN KAPISA PANJSHER W ARDAK PAKTYA KABUL TAKHAR PARWAN BALKH FARAH KANDAHAR BAGHLAN NOORISTAN ZABUL PAKTIKA HERAT LOGAR TOTAL GHAZNI UROZGAN BADGHIS DAYKUNDI SAMANGAN LAGHMAN SAR-L-PUL BAMYAN GHOR NANGARHAR FARYAB HELMAND KUNDUZ KHOST KUNARHA NIMROZ Sources and notes: WB estimates based on ALCS 2016-17 AFGHANISTAN DEVELOPMENT BRIEF 4 Food insecurity in Afghanistan 5. THE POOR ARE FORCED TO RELY ON COPING STRATEGIES THAT FURTHER ERODE RESILIENCE Poor households More than 65 percent of Afghan households adopted harmful coping strategies in the face of disproportionately rely on adverse shocks. While reliance on loans is widespread, poorer households disproportionately reducing food quality or relied on reducing food quality or quantity or on selling assets or property, further quantity or on selling compromising food security and resilience to shocks. A similar pattern is evident among poor assets or property, further compromising food households living in insecure areas. security and resilience to shocks. Figure 9: Coping strategies, for households exposed to a shock, 2016-17 HOUSEHOLDS BY WELFARE QUINTILE POOR HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN INSECURE 70 AREAS % of households exposed to any Took loans 32.8 Decreased expenditures 42.7 50 Reduced food quantity/quality 24.4 No coping needed 35.3 shock 30 Purchased food on credit 9.7 Received help from community 7.3 Sold assets_property 12.3 10 Rented out/morgaged land 0.6 Increased child labor 0.7 Poorest Q2 Q3 Q4 Richest Joined military 0.6 -10 Dropped children from school 0.5 Any Coping Strategy Sold child brides 1.7 Took loans Worked on relief program 0.3 Reduced Food Quantity or Quality Sold Assets or Property 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 % of households exposed to any shock Sources and notes: WB estimates based on ALCS 2016-17 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS The current drought exacerbates already existing severe food insecurity in Afghanistan. In the short term, humanitarian assistance can reduce the urgent need for food but in the medium to long term, food security objectives have to be incorporated into national policies on poverty reduction strategies. Strategies aiming at reducing hunger and poverty need to consider impacts at the national, sub-national, household and individual level. These findings highlight the need for policy action along the following lines: 1. An adaptive safety nets program that is sensitive to seasonality in hunger and livelihoods, geographic need and targets specific vulnerabilities. 2. Identification of communities chronically underserved by markets or inaccessible, which could be prioritized for spatial targeting and tertiary roads improvements in the short run, as safety nets are scaled up. 3. In the medium term, diversification of livelihood opportunities in rural areas and investments in improving yields, livestock and livestock product quality. 4. Medium-term interventions to support improved nutrition and care for vulnerable groups including health campaigns for pregnant women and mothers, nutritional supplements for mothers and children, targeted support for the elderly and the disabled, and school feeding interventions. AFGHANISTAN DEVELOPMENT BRIEF 5