98064 Turn Down Heat the Confronting the New Climate Normal THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE FOR CENTRAL ASIA KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN FACING THE NEW CLIMATE NORMAL WE ARE HEADING TOWARDS A THE REALITY TODAY We are experiencing human-induced climate change at a rate unprecedented MUCH HARSHER CLIMATE in human history. Weather extremes are already affecting people everywhere, damaging crops and coastlines and putting livelihoods at risk. • The world is already 0.8°C above pre-industrial times, with observed In a sobering assessment Turn Down the Heat: Confronting climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (up 19 centimeters the New Climate Normal documents that if no further action between 1901 and 2010), disappearing glaciers and extreme weather is taken, there is a 40% chance to exceed four degrees events on the rise; Celsius (4ºC) warming before 2100—within our children’s • Losses from extreme weather events increased from US$50 billion a and grandchildren’s lifetime. year in the 1980s to just under US$200 billion over the last decade; • Warming of close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times is already locked The report paints a grim picture of what that world will look into the Earth’s climate system because of past and projected like. As weather extremes become the new normal and risks greenhouse gas emissions (such as carbon dioxide and methane). It means that climate change impacts such as heat-waves, droughts, to food, water and energy security increase, everyone will storms and other weather extremes may be unavoidable; feel the impact—particularly the poor. • To underscore the numbers, scientists announced that 2014 was the hottest year in recorded history. Prepared in collaboration with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and launched by the World Bank Group (WBG) in November 2014, the report reviews the latest scientific evidence on climate change risks to development. THE GLOBAL FUTURE—4°C AND CLIMBING Despite efforts until now, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise The third in the Turn Down the Heat series, this report unabated. Scientists and researchers have concluded that with ‘business as examines climate scenarios in three regions, Latin America usual’ we will hit that new climate regime—4°C or even higher—before and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa 2100, with alarming consequences: and Europe and Central Asia, including the prospects • Unprecedented heat extremes becoming more frequent; and implications for the countries of Central Asia in that • Changes in rainfall patterns impacting water availability; challenging climate regime. • Reduced crop yields with resulting rising food security concerns; But the good news is that this future does not have to be our • Accelerated loss of biodiversity and species extinction; destiny. Solutions exist. First we have to accept the reality of • Prospects of ocean acidification affecting marine ecosystems, fisheries what scientists are telling us and to truly understand that we and tourism; are the last generation that can save the planet. It will require • Sea level rise continuing for centuries, possibly rising two meters for every degree of warming; a concerted effort and change in every aspect of human life—substantial technological, economic, institutional and • The West Antarctic Ice Sheet dislodging adding to abrupt sea level rise; behavioral change. But most of all, it will require leadership at • Carbon sinks like forests and permafrost holding methane becoming greenhouse gas emitters that could be disastrous game-changers for every level of society. the climate of the planet. THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE RISING TO THE CLIMATE FOR CENTRAL ASIA CHANGE CHALLENGE As we head towards the next century, Central Asia will find itself confronting That 4°C or higher scenario doesn’t have to be the future for Central Asia hard choices between two critical needs—water for agriculture or water for or the world. With a concerted effort we can turn down the heat. Many of energy, aggravating a problem already faced today by countries in the the worst projected climate impacts outlined in Turn Down the Heat could region. The threat of water scarcity will intensify in Central Asia as be avoided by holding warming below 2°C. In the meantime, efforts to temperatures climb towards 4°C. Melting glaciers and shifts in the timing of build resilience and manage risks must also redouble to cope with already water flows will lead to less water available in summer months. Given its locked-in climate change over the coming decades. high dependence on irrigation, Central Asia’s agricultural sector will be There are many opportunities to improve climate resilience in Central significantly impacted by climate change. Hydropower generation will also Asia. Legacy issues—for example, aging infrastructure or unsustainable be at risk, particularly for small, unregulated water catchments. land and water management—are important drivers of climate • The glaciers of Central Asia hold about 1,000 cubic kilometers of ice, vulnerability but at the same time offer significant potential for “no equivalent to 10 years’ supply from the area’s two main rivers, the Amu regrets” actions that will enhance climate resilience, reduce carbon Darya and the Syr Darya. Central Asia’s glaciers have already seen a emissions and generate net economic gains, such as: one-third reduction in volume since the beginning of the 20th Century. • Address increased variability in water resources and related risks for Their volume is further projected to decline by as much as 80% in a food and energy security as well as for rural livelihoods; 4°C warmer world—a reliable water resource disappearing into thin air. • Help expand and modernize energy infrastructure, tackling losses, • Just as ominous, the timing of peak flow of key rivers will shift increasing efficiency on both supply- and demand- sides, and towards spring with a 25% reduction in flow during the critical revitalizing regional trade; summer growing season. • Support the rehabilitation of irrigation systems and capacity for • Droughts could further push land degradation and desertification. improved water management; Droughts are already a major problem in Kazakhstan affecting up to 66% of the country’s land. By the turn of the century, desertification • Promote more sustainable natural resource management, notably to could affect up to half of Kyrgyz Republic’s territory (from roughly increase the resilience of rural, and poor, communities. 15% in the 2000’s) and large stretches of Turkmenistan and Given connections in water and land systems within the region as well as Uzbekistan would emerge as arid areas. similarities in climate change challenges across countries, there is much to • Reduction in water availability is projected to occur along with a 30% gain from a coordinated and integrated approach toward climate change. In increase in irrigation demand. Combined with increased heat particular, it could help improve the effectiveness of national climate actions extremes that negatively affect crop productivity, substantial risks for through (i) economies of scale—for example, shared research and knowledge irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems can be expected. efforts; (ii) faster learning through experience-sharing for replication and scaling-up across countries of successful climate innovation; (iii) strategic • Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, is likely to be a future hotspot of heat planning and financing—for example, access to climate finance, collaboration stress for wheat, a major crop in the area. Agricultural yields could drop with development partners; and (iv) complementarities—for example, by as much as 30% in some parts of Tajikistan by the turn of the century. risk-management mechanisms in agriculture. • Livestock would also be impacted, through increasing pressure on pastures (often already subject to overgrazing and degradation) as well as by health effects from higher temperatures;. • Greater variability and uncertainty in the timing and amount of water available is also raising concerns for power security, particularly for hydropower plants in small, unregulated catchments. Output could decrease by up to 20% in some locations. • The higher temperatures of a 4°C hotter world will bring with it higher incidence of tick-borne encephalitis and mosquito-transmitted malaria and dengue fever. Malaria is endemic in Tajikistan and reoccurring in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan. TOWARDS CLIMATE-SMART REGIONAL COOPERATION The World Bank Group’s regional work in Central Asia aims to help countries build upon the benefits of cooperation while pursuing national priorities. Nowhere is that more evident than in dealing with the threats of climate change. Central Asian countries have the opportunity to look to the future together with a number of major initiatives. Some highlights: PREVENTING DISASTERS—BUILDING RESILIENCE Central Asian countries suffer recurrent devastating disasters associated with floods and droughts, which climate change is expected to exacerbate. The Central Asia Regional Hydromet Modernization Project is helping National Hydromet Services of the five countries to work together, share data and expertise, and rebuild infrastructure and human capacity to reduce disaster risks, manage consequences of climate variability and support economic development in agriculture, water resources and energy throughout the region. A major component of the project will ensure that each of the National Hydrometeorological Services in the region can share, use, exchange and archive common hydromet data and information, and that each agency has a comparable level of expertise in the production of information and delivery of hydromet services. WORKING TOGETHER TO TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE The Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) is prepared in response to a call from all five Central Asian countries for a regional program to strengthen dialogue and collaboration on climate action. The Program seeks to help these countries build upon the benefits of cooperation while pursuing national priorities for climate- smart development. The Program will support access to improved climate change knowledge services—for example, data, knowledge, tools, and capacity-building for climate assessment and decision making—as well as support investments to address climate change and improve productivity and livelihoods in rural areas. The Program will also support the systematic evaluation of these climate investments and dissemination of lessons learned to a broad range of stakeholders to facilitate learning, replication, and scaling-up of such good climate practices in the region. As a result, CAMP4ASB will enhance regional dialogue and collaboration to address climate change challenges, which transcend national borders in Central Asia, and provide a platform to mobilize and leverage additional resources for climate action. MANAGING WATER AND ENERGY IN CENTRAL ASIA Central Asia is endowed with water and abundant and varied energy resources. However, these resources are highly unbalanced across the region and access to them is uneven. In some cases there is a lack of physical infrastructure and the outdated systems that exist are unreliable and inefficient. Some communities cannot meet citizens’ electricity needs during certain times of the year, while others lack adequate water supply. Climate change can only aggravate this situation and further strain resources with implications for food and energy security and for Central Asia’s development aspirations. Both energy and water security depend on actions within each country and at the regional level. The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) recognizes that strengthened cooperation at the national and regional levels for smart management of shared resources can lead to increased incomes, sustainable development and political stability across the region. The Program delivers substantial technical expertise, analytics, and diagnostics for informed decision making and smart investments at the water-energy nexus: • Energy Development: to promote high value-added energy investments, focusing on winter energy security, energy efficiency, trade and accountability, infrastructure planning and institutional development. Right now for example, two million households across the region as affected by winter heat and power shortages every year. • Water Productivity: to enhance the productive and efficient use of water in both agriculture and energy sectors through capacity and institutional strengthening as well as investment planning for irrigation efficiency, rehabilitation of infrastructure and promotion of new technologies. For example, a 10% increase in water pumping efficiency would result in regional savings of $188 million per year. • Energy-Water Linkages: to improve the understanding of linkages between energy and water at the national and regional levels through dialogue, energy-water modeling, regional hydrometeorology and exploring the future impact of climate change. Dialogue, consultations and regional cooperation will be key to tackling climate change and making the best use of water and energy for the countries of Central Asia as they work to prevent a 4°C world. CAEWDP fosters dialogue across borders in order to reap the benefits of regional coordination and cooperation. It aims to strengthen security in the context of a changing global environment through partnerships with all five Central Asian countries plus Afghanistan in regional initiatives and with development partners. Regional dialogue has been significantly bolstered by the transparent knowledge platform the Program provides. “ Our response to the challenge of climate change will define the legacy of our generation. The stakes have never been higher. ” Dr. Jim Yong Kim, President, World Bank Group www.worldbank.org/climatechange