100046 Future of Food Shaping a Climate-Smart Global Food System Foreword by Dr. Jim Yong Kim © 2015 World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/foodsecurity Twitter: @WBG_Agriculture Email: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of World Bank Group or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, de- nominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. 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The report was prepared by a core team consisting of Irina Klytchnikova, Marc Sadler, Robert Townsend, Svetlana Edme- ades, Vikas Choudhary, Sarwat Hussain, Holger Kray, Erick Fernandes, Gene Moses, James Cantrell, Xenia Zia Morales, and Michele Pietrowski. The report was completed with overall guidance by Juergen Voegele, Ethel Sennhauser, and Marianne Fay; benefited from peer review by Dina Umali-Deininger, Carter Brandon, Richard Damania, Ulf Narloch, John Nash, Luc Christiaensen, and Michael Morris; with helpful suggestions and contributions from Punam Chuhan-Pole, Ana Luna, Priti Kumar, and Kathryn Hollifield; and editing by Jane Sunderland. Special gratitude to the CIAT team for providing the info-graphic, “Climate-Smart Agriculture for Policy Makers.” Images Front cover: Neil Palmer / CIAT Title page: Neil Palmer / CIAT Interior: 2, M. Tall / CCAFS West Africa 5, Neil Palmer / CIAT 8, Arne Hoel / World Bank Group 9, F. Fiondella / IRI/CCAFES 14, S. Padulosi / Bioversity International 18, Neil Palmer / CIAT 21, Neil Palmer / CIAT 23, Thomas Sennett / World Bank Group 25, Neil Palmer / CIAT 29, from top left clockwise: Natalia Cieslik / World Bank Group; Arne Hoel / World Bank Group; Neil Palmer / CIAT; Neil Palmer / CIAT 2 future of food Future of Food Shaping A Climate-Smart Global Food System October 2015 Foreword The agriculture sector is a mainstay of national economies across the developing world. Agri- culture is a major provider of food, nutrition, jobs, and export earnings, and the sector is key to improving stewardship of the environment. Farming affects every member of the human family, and is the basis of food security at national, regional, and global levels. A well-performing agriculture sector is vital for achieving the World Bank Group’s vision of a sustainable global food system that can feed every person, every day, everywhere with a nutritious and affordable diet. Climate change and agriculture are inextricably linked. Droughts, floods, and rising tempera- tures are cutting crop yields, threatening food, fish and meat supply, and pushing poor people deeper into poverty. Agriculture and land-use changes contribute 25 percent of heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Without collective action, this number will likely rise. Food demand is projected to increase by at least 20 percent globally over the next 15 years—with the largest increases expected in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and East Asia—and a climate-smart food sys- tem is urgently needed. We must have a greater push to support widespread adoption of climate-smart agriculture in efforts to secure the triple win of higher agricultural productivity, increased resilience to climate change, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. The World Bank Group is pleased to present “Future of Food: Shaping a Climate-Smart Global Food System,” at the 2015 Annual Meetings being held in Lima, Peru. The report aims to help improve the productivity and resilience of the current food system, and to make agriculture part of the solution to climate change. It presents compelling evidence and new tools for policymakers, serving as a guide to better address the impacts of a warming climate on agriculture and food production. As the interna- tional community works toward the new Sustainable Development Goals, the nexus of food security, productivity, and climate change must come into sharper focus. This report argues that climate-smart agriculture is central to efforts to end extreme poverty by 2030 and boost shared prosperity. We at the World Bank Group are committed to working with our partners to shape a global food system that feeds all and creates a healthier, more prosperous, and sustainable world. Jim Yong Kim President The World Bank Group shaping a climate-smart global food system 3 summary and key messages Attaining a significant share of the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) rests upon the ability to ensure the food system is productive, resilient, and contributes to tackling cli- mate change. The growing body of operational experience implementing Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) points to a large spectrum of approaches that deliver productivity and resilience gains alongside lower emissions. This paper advocates for an increasing shift toward securing a triple win by implementing agriculture and food production practices that not only boost productivity but also enhance resilience and lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)— the three pillars that form the basis of CSA. Key messages • Meeting the rising demand for food and ending hunger and food insecurity requires a climate-smart food system that improves agricultural productivity, has greater resil- ience to climate change and lowers greenhouse gas emissions. Droughts, floods and ris- ing temperatures are already cutting crop yields, threatening food, fish and meat supply and pushing people deeper into poverty. Climate change and the effects of climate shocks are dampening the prospects for future productivity growth. Agriculture and land use changes already contribute 25 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. A more climate-smart food sys- tem is urgently needed to address these challenges.   • There is a growing spectrum of interventions—policies, practices and innovations— that must help secure the triple win of higher agricultural productivity, increased resil- ience to climate change and lower emissions. But in a world of constrained resources, prioritization of investments in climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is crucial. New tools are available that can help policy makers and stakeholders assess opportunities, balance trade-offs and facilitate identification of entry points for smart, targeted interventions and more efficient investments. • The new Sustainable Development Goals to end global poverty and hunger by 2030 offer a major opportunity to place the need for a climate-smart food system at the front and center of the development agenda and debate. This paper calls on the devel- opment community, scientists, investors, and civil society to rally behind governments and farmers to support integrated approaches and overcome barriers to adoption of CSA. First, the paper highlights why ensuring a more climate-smart food system is needed; second, it identifies what practices and approaches can help accomplish this endeavor and offers a guide on how these can be better prioritized at the country level; and third, it focuses on how these improved practices and approaches can be more broadly developed and adopted through improved incentives, knowledge, science, and finance. 4 future of food Why Is a More Climate-Smart Food System Needed? The world has made impressive progress Improving agricultural performance will over the last 25 years in the continuing be central to addressing the poverty and fight against poverty—but a further push food insecurity challenge, as three-quar- is needed. Globally, the number of people ters of poor people still live in rural areas, living in extreme poverty fell from 1.9 billion and nearly two-thirds of the world’s poor in 1990 to an estimated 900 million today. people work in agriculture. Food demand is projected to rise by at least 20 percent glob- Though the majority of the poor still reside in ally over the next 15 years, with the largest Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, the rate increases projected in Sub-Saharan Africa, of poverty reduction has accelerated over the South Asia, and East Asia (Figure 1).2 Food last decade. Nevertheless, 800 million peo- production in Sub-Saharan Africa will need ple go to bed hungry every day, and one in to increase by about 60 percent over the every ten people in the world is undernour- next 15 years to meet the rising demand for ished. To end poverty by 2030, it is crucial food and to eliminate hunger.3 If these food not only to accelerate growth but to make it needs are to be met by productivity gains more broad-based, both within and among alone, cereal yields in Sub-Saharan Africa countries.1 The recently agreed Sustainable will need to increase at 3 percent per year, Development Goals to end global poverty which is over 40 percent higher than the 2.1 and hunger by 2030 will require faster prog- percent gains achieved from 2000 to 2013. ress, particularly in the poorest countries. Higher cereal yields in Sub-Saharan Africa shaping a climate-smart global food system 5 Figure 1: Growth in Total Food Consumption by 2030, Relative to 2015 7 In 2015 Additional by 2030 6 5 Kcal/day (Trillions) 4 3 2 1 0 Sub-Saharan Middle East Latin America South Asia East Asia Africa and North Africa and Caribbean and Paci c Source: World Bank staff estimates based on N. Alexandratos and J. Bruinsma 2012, “World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision.” ESA Working Paper 12-30 (Rome: FAO, 2012). are closely correlated with a higher share of food system, resulting in high economic the population living above the poverty line. losses, adding to volatility of food prices, and depressing incomes of farmers and consum- Sustained agricultural productivity ers alike. For example, in Uganda growth in gains require greater resilience to climate agricultural income has been the principal shocks and climate change driver of poverty reduction in the last decade, Climate shocks already impose large eco- and in turn drought has had a greater impact nomic costs when crop yields and livestock on agricultural growth and incomes of the productivity suffer from droughts, floods, bottom 40 percent than any other shock and heat waves. In 2009, almost 20 percent (for example, shocks from health, floods, of maize production in Mexico was lost due and conflict). In Ethiopia—a country with to drought, and similar losses occurred again historically high vulnerability to low and in 2011 as a result of the so-called White erratic rainfall—households that suffered Corn Freeze. During the 2010 floods in famine in the 1980s were still experiencing Colombia, 380,000 hectares of crop lands low-income growth rates during the 1990s, and pastures were flooded, and 30,000 head and as recent evidence shows, drought is the of livestock died. Cyclones destroyed nearly dominant risk compared to price, health, and one-third of Sri Lanka’s rice crop and badly other shocks. damaged most of Madagascar’s rice-pro- ducing areas in 2011. When major global Climate change is projected to reduce agri- food producers are hit by extreme weather, cultural yields and livestock productivity, depending on the magnitude of crop fail- worsening the effect of climate shocks on ure and policy response, the adverse conse- the food system. Estimates of crop yield and quences may ripple throughout the global livestock losses vary greatly, but most global 6 future of food climate models project severe and adverse consequences, especially for the world’s most What if agroforestry spread food-insecure regions. Without adapta- across Africa’s drylands? tion, Asia and Africa will suffer particularly In Niger’s Maradi region, farmer-led adop- severe yield declines by 2030 in important tion of agroforestry restored 5 million food growing areas—wheat in South Asia, hectares of degraded land, improved soil rice in Southeast Asia, and maize in south- fertility through the planting of around 200 million nitrogen-fixing trees that ern Africa.4 Yield decreases of more than 7 naturally reduce the need for fertilizer, percent are likely by 2030 in Africa’s Sahe- resulted in the tripling of millet yields and lian region, and they could exceed 30 per- stored an additional 2 tons per hectare cent in some areas of the Arabian Peninsula, of carbon in soils and plants. Spreading the Horn of Africa, and southern Africa agroforestry across 300 million hectares by 2080.5 Substantial increase in drought of Africa’s drylands outside the bound- aries of protected areas and where it is risk—a major driver of crop and livestock technically feasible would raise food pro- production shortfalls—is projected for large duction by an estimated 88 million tons parts of the Middle East, North Africa, and and store an equivalent of one-third of South America. Depending on region and global direct emissions from agriculture. types of production systems, water scarcity Note: See Endnote 9. will result in less productive pastures, lower dairy yields, and higher risk of the spread of diseases.6 In Latin America and Southeast for a quarter of total greenhouse gas emis- Asia, floods and droughts during El Niño/ sions. Projecting past trends, agriculture La Niña episodes, which already cause heavy and other land use changes alone would losses in agriculture, are likely to double in comprise 70 percent of total allowable emis- frequency.7 sions across all sectors in 2050 needed to limit global temperature increases to 2oC.9 Climate change will therefore hamper our More action is urgently needed to reduce ability to feed everyone and eradicate hun- emissions from agriculture, an imperative ger. Achieving the needed food productivity that can be met by including agriculture in and poverty reduction gains will be particu- current and future major intergovernmental larly difficult in food-insecure regions as the climate change discussions. When consider- challenge is further magnified by the very ing emissions from the overall food system, high vulnerability of these locations to cli- including the emissions from energy and mate change. 8 transport throughout the food production and consumption chain, the magnitude of Agriculture needs to reduce its the needed reductions is likely to be even greenhouse gas emissions and become greater. So agriculture needs to be part of the part of the solution to tackle climate solution to the climate change problem. change Delinking the growth of food produc- Agriculture and land use change is a large tion from the growth of emissions is also contributor to global warming, accounting needed. Even in the world’s poor countries, shaping a climate-smart global food system 7 which contribute a small share of global billions of tons of carbon that was trapped emissions, policy makers will need to in the soil. Restoring this carbon to the soil increasingly focus on the agriculture sector will not only sequester carbon from the to seize opportunities for synergies and avoid atmosphere, but also boost food productivity, lock-ins to a higher emissions growth path; increase water retention (leading to greater a focus on mitigation may be warranted in resilience when droughts hit), bring land order to delink economic growth from the back into production (thereby reducing pres- growth of emissions. sure on biodiversity and forests) and boost incomes benefiting the rural poor. In short, Agriculture also has the biophysical poten- investing in carbon sequestration techniques tial to offset and sequester about 20 percent in the agricultural sector can deliver food of total annual emissions through improved security and development outcomes while soil management techniques.10 Currently, “buying time” for other major technology the world’s soils hold three times more car- breakthroughs to deliver on the mitigation bon than the atmosphere. They have signif- agenda. Policy makers and stakeholders will icant potential to absorb a larger amount need to assess trade-offs carefully, and their of carbon from the atmosphere than they currently do.11 Over the past century, unsus- task can be greatly assisted by more up-to- tainable agriculture and other practices have date climate information at the country and degraded land, leading to the emission of local levels. 8 future of food What Type of Investments Will Ensure a More Climate- Smart Food System? Globally, investments that better integrate production from agricultural waste prod- the imperatives of the “triple win”— raising ucts/livestock manure, improved irrigation agricultural productivity, increasing adap- and drainage efficiency that includes low- tation and resilience to climate change, ering GHG emissions by reducing energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions— consumption of pumping stations, and are urgently needed. Past efforts have often reducing food loss and waste. Some of the focused on these aspects independently. We recent stories highlighting success along the need increasingly to shift to addressing all three pillars of CSA are shown in the snap- three simultaneously—the “triple win.” shot “Examples of Diverse Approaches to Achieving Triple Wins of CSA.” A focus on A growing and diverse spectrum of prac- increasing synergies and multiple outcomes tices show it is possible to simultaneously will not only help make progress toward deliver higher agricultural productivity, global food security, but also enable agri- greater climate resilience, and lower emis- culture to become part of the solution for sions. Important among these are silvo- tackling climate change. It is important to pastoral livestock systems, agroforestry, note that CSA is an approach that promotes intercropping, diversification of production a combination of investments, policies, and systems toward less water- and emission- technology adoption that deliver multiple intensive crops, improved pasture manage- outcomes simultaneously within a practice, ment, better fertilizer use, minimum tillage, or across a landscape, production system, or alternative wetting and drying of rice, biogas supply chain. shaping a climate-smart global food system 9 Synergies between greater efficiency and sustainable use of land, water, and inputs leading to CSA Farmers in China currently apply approximately 200 pounds of fertilizer per acre on average, whereas farmers in Africa apply less than 100 pounds on average. If application rates could be reduced in China and increased in Africa, the net impact could be an extra 175 million tons of food produced in Africa and a reduction of up to 360 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) in China’s emissions (and reduced farming costs).i If alternative wetting and drying could be expanded to 100 percent of eligible areas globally, water consumption in agriculture could be cut by 30 percent, 200 million tons of CO2-e emis- sions could be avoided, 65 million more tons of rice could be produced, and farmer incomes could be increased.ii The FAO estimates that emissions from livestock can be reduced by between 18 and 30 per- cent concurrent with an increase in productivity if producers in given production systems and geographies adopt the practices currently used by the 10 percent of producers with the lowest emissions intensity.iii Intensification needs to be complemented by policy planning, regulations, pricing, and finan- cial incentive mechanisms to promote sustainable landscape and watershed management and reduce the added pressure from extensification that the gains in productivity may facilitate. Note: i. D. Charles, 2013. “Fertilized World.” National Geographic. May. ii. M. Richards and O. Sander 2014. “Alternate Wetting and Drying in Irrigated Rice.” CGIAR Practice Brief. Washington, D.C. iii. FAO Livestock: P.J. Gerber, H. Steinfeld, B. Henderson, A. Mottet, C. Opio, J. Dijkman, A. Falcucci, and G. Tempio 2013. “Tackling Climate Change through Livestock: A Global Assessment of Emissions and Mitigation Opportunities.” Food and Agriculture Orga- nization of the United Nations (FAO). Rome. Reducing food waste and food loss is key A growing menu of options are available for boosting the CSA triple win by raising that vary by region the overall food system productivity while Opportunities to achieve synergies between delivering greater resilience and lower emis- productivity and resilience, with the co-ben- sions by using less land, forests, and water efit of lower emissions, will vary by region. resources. Food losses in industrialized All countries need to contribute to lower- countries are higher or comparable to those ing emissions through actions in all sec- in developing countries, but in developing tors, but richer countries are responsible for countries around 70 percent of the food a far greater share of total emissions and losses occur before food reaches the final need to make greater effort compared to consumer, while in industrialized countries, poorer countries (Figure 2). More than 800 around 70 percent of the food losses occur million people living in countries with per at retail and consumer levels. Food waste at capita GDP below US$4,000 are responsi- consumer level in industrialized countries ble for only 1 percent of global CO2 emis- (estimated at 222 million tons) is almost as sions. For them, investment in climate-smart high as the total food production in sub-Sa- agriculture should place a relatively higher haran Africa (230 million tons).12 weight on productivity growth and resilience 10 future of food building.13 However, even in those coun- increase dramatically to mobilize science for tries there are opportunities to ensure that climate-smart agricultural practices benefit- this growth is attained through approaches ing smallholder farmers in that context. that limit emissions and help sharply reduce the intensity of emissions for producing one Beyond individual practices, adopting inte- kilogram of food. Nitrogen-fixing trees can grated landscape or watershed approaches, help improve soil quality and raise farmer supported by sound institutions and regu- incomes in Africa’s Sahel, and at the same lations can help deliver the “triple win.” We time also deliver a mitigation co-benefit. cannot achieve food security without pre- There is a growing range of practices and serving the ecosystem services that forests landscape approaches that can deliver mit- provide. We cannot sustain forests without igation benefits at no additional cost. In thinking how we will feed a growing pop- other cases, mitigation options may incur ulation. And we cannot grow food without a cost, but inaction today may have long- water. Gains in production efficiency and term or irreversible consequences such as intensification of livestock and crop produc- deforestation, desertification, and severe tion systems deliver mitigation benefits if on soil degradation.14 It is absolutely essen- balance water, forest and soil resources fall tial that support for agricultural research under less pressure from growing agricul- include a focus on mitigation. In particular, tural production. investment in agricultural research needs to Figure 2. Regional Variation of the Scope to Achieve CSA Triple Win P - Productivity EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA R - Resilience  Manure management E - Emissions P R  Livestock e ciency  Pasture management NORTH AMERICA & EUROPE E  Zero tillage P R  Water saving technology  Biodigesters ASIA  Solar irrigation  Fertilizer management  Rice (AWD+) E  Supply chain mangement P R  Livestock e ciency  Biodigesters P E  Fertilizer management R MIDDLE EAST AND  Degraded land E NORTH AFRICA  Solar power irrigation restoration  Water saving technology LATIN AMERICA  Manure management  Livestock e ciency  Biodigesters P R  Agroforestry  Rice (AWD+)  High-value crops E  Pasture management AFRICA  Agroforestry  Fertilizer management  Zero tillage P R  Pasture management GSDPM E  Fertilizer application Map Design Unit IBRD 41754 | JULY 2015 This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Source: World Bank staff estimates. Note: This figure is for illustrative purposes only. The relative weight of the focus on productivity, resilience, and emissions is derived based on a qualitative assessment of the data on vulnerability hot spots of agricultural productivity in D. Wheeler 2011, Center for Global Development (accessed at: http://www.cgdev.org/page/mapping-impacts-climate-change) and the profile of emissions from agriculture by subsector derived from FAOSTAT data at regional level. shaping a climate-smart global food system 11 S n a p s h ot — E x a m p l es o f D i v e r se A p p r o ac h es to Ac h i e v i n g T r i p l e W i n s i n C S A Climate-Smart Agriculture Keeps Rice Bowls Filled in Vietnam In Vietnam, climate-smart approaches to rice cultivation have helped up to 33,000 farmers produce more rice while cutting costs and reducing methane emissions. Switching from flood irrigation to alternative wetting and drying of plots has reduced input costs by 20 percent, raised produc- tivity by 5–10 percent, and significantly cut methane emissions and Alternative wetting and dry- water use. Science, technology, outreach, training, and extension ing techniques raised rice services for farmers and cooperatives through Farmer Field Schools; productivity by 5 –10 per- increased availability of certified seed; and better irrigation manage- cent, reduced water use, and ment techniques helped deliver the technology at large scale, and cut methane emissions. pave the way for expanding the project to all eight rice-growing provinces in the Mekong Delta. Climate-Smart Agriculture Delivering Results in India Livestock: A government program to support the national dairy sector improving animal feed, nutrition and fodder development is under way in climatically vulnerable agro-ecological regions in 15 states. The program boosts cattle productivity by promoting breeds that are resilient and adapted to local conditions and promotes improved animal nutrition through the Ration Balancing Program. Feed costs and methane emissions both fell by 12 percent, a healthier and more productive pool of cattle is making the system more climate-resilient, and at least one-third of the beneficiary farmers are women. Land and watershed management: In Himachal Pradesh state, improved management of the Mid-Himalayan watershed as part of a national watershed management program has given farmers US$8 million in carbon cred- its from the Prototype Carbon Fund. To date, up to 10,000 hectares of nonarable agricultural wastelands have been restored and degraded forests have been afforested. On arable lands, more than 10,000 water New sorghum and millet harvesting structures have been built, expanding irrigation potential varieties yield 1.5 to 2 tons by nearly 9,000 hectares benefiting some 54,000 rural households (24 per hectare—a productivity percent of which are vulnerable households) increasing their resil- gain of more than 100 per- ience to drought. Karnataka and Bihar states are also implementing cent—while reducing water watershed management and climate resilience programs—focusing and fertilizer use and lower- on raising productivity of farming systems while protecting soils and ing methane emissions. water—that at the same time deliver mitigation benefits. A national “climate knowledge base” helps regional watershed management projects attain triple-win outcomes, by enhancing the understanding of hydrology and trends in future water availability in relation to global warming, and facilitating land use plan- ning through local, integrated water-soils-farming systems information. Climate-Smart Agriculture Helps Feed More People in Senegal Senegal is building a more resilient and productive food system that also helps mitigate climate change through the West Africa Agriculture Productivity Program (WAAPP). Scientists have developed seven new high-yielding, early maturing, and drought-resistant varieties of sorghum and pearl millet adapted to local growing conditions. On average, the new varieties yield 1.5 to 2 tons per hectare—significantly more than the 0.5 ton per hectare yields that are the norm from traditional varieties. The seeds have been distributed to farming cooperatives around the country, which have been charged with producing more seeds and selling them back at a price higher than the market standard. Farmers around the country are also taught climate-smart planting techniques 12 future of food that use less water and fertilizer to improve their productivity in the face of irregular rainfall and droughts. Greater productivity and resilience, with a concurrent reduction in fertilizer use, is helping to deliver the triple win. Climate-Smart Agriculture Cuts Emissions in Bangladesh Through Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP) funding, the World Bank is promoting an approach that incorporates the use of optimal and timely use of new rice seeds, new fertilizer, and the implemen- tation of new water management (including the alternate wetting and drying (AWD) approach that saves water and offers other important benefits such as human disease control). The project funds “farmer field schools” to demonstrate the project’s benefits to farmers in target villages. The AWD technique makes use of the cycle of draining and re-flooding of rice paddies, keeping an optimum water level at any particular time. It typically takes 2,000 liters of water to produce a kilogram of rice; however, AWD can reduce water use by 25 percent. AWD also helps reduce GHG emissions, specifically methane, by up to 50 percent. This project also supports reduced fertilizer use by promoting deep placement of fertilizer and precision application—leading to a significant drop in methane emissions. Used in combination with soil and water conservation, these practices deliver adaptation and mitigation benefits in crop, livestock systems and fisheries. Partnering with scientists to achieve triple-win in coffee sector in Central America and Mexico A GAFSP-financed project in Central America’s coffee sector, supported by the IFC in partnership with scientists, the private sector, and farmers, is helping combat the devastating coffee rust disease La Roya by planting improved varieties in cof- fee plantations. In another program led by the private sector, the Farmers, the private sector and world’s leading organic coffee producer, Keurig Green Mountain, scientists partnered to reduce partnered with the International Center for Tropical Agriculture the incidence of inter-seasonal (CIAT) scientists to help farmers diversify coffee-based production famine, boost resilience, and systems—while providing technical assistance to farmers. Some lower emissions through inter- farmers have begun using income from their coffee harvests to cropping in coffee produc- expand into other enterprises (like fruits, vegetables, cocoa, live- tion systems in Nicaragua and stock, and honey) and vice versa. Intercropping promoted through Mexico. this collaboration has helped to boost incomes and fight hunger in the coffee lands while delivering adaptation and mitigation ben- efits in part of Nicaragua and in Chiapas state, Mexico. Diversified production systems have helped boost the resilience of farmer incomes throughout the year, while fruit trees provide shade, boosting resilience to drought and heat, and absorb carbon. Improving Livestock Productivity and Curbing Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon In Brazil, mitigation of emissions from the livestock sector has become the centerpiece of a national strategy to achieve voluntary targets for GHG mitigation. Brazil committed to reduce deforestation in the Amazon and the Cerrado, scale up no-till planting, and reduce nitrogen emissions from farming. Total pledges will reduce emissions by 700 million tons CO2-eq by 2020 within ten years. The Brazilian Cooperation Agency program pro- vides a credit line for loans to farmers to finance a range of mitigation practices to meet pledges—intensifying livestock production, restoring degraded grasslands, and integrating livestock and crop farming systems—that also strengthen resilience to drought. Cattle productivity has been growing since 2004 alongside impressive reduction in deforestation. This is also a triple win. shaping a climate-smart global food system 13 Climate Smart Profiles — A Tool to Help Guide Country Prioritization One tool to systematically assess the oppor- how economically-important food produc- tunity for countries to simultaneously tion can be affected by weather shocks and deliver higher agricultural productivity, identify ways to improve productivity and improved resilience, and lower emissions adaptation potential while reducing emis- are the CSA Country Profiles. Introduced sions. All these enable quick comparisons of initially in Latin America and now being different interventions in different sectors, extended to other regions, CSA Country and serve as entry points for action. Profiles can be an important mechanism to build awareness of country options, facilitate dialogue, and help prioritize investments to Intercropping ranks high in terms of deliver on the triple win.15 The profiles pro- CSA smartness in Peru, Grenada, Kenya, vide a climate lens through which to view and Argentina. Through diversification, it raises productivity, efficiency of soil and the food system; they help to understand water use, and promotes resilience and carbon storage. In Grenada, intercrop- ping cereals with legumes cuts fertilizer CSA profiles have been completed or are use and reduces nitrogen emissions. ongoing in 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Scaling up the approach The Country Profiles provide a visual in partnership with other countries will help inform prioritization of investment overview of the degree of climate-smart- in CSA. ness of the most important production systems in a country, identif ying good 14 future of food practices and potential for improvement. • Introduction of agroforestry and silvo- The Country Profiles present an index score pastoral systems in coffee and mixed of climate-smartness, used to rank a range farming systems in Colombia, Kenya, Mexico, and Peru • Introduction of shade and timber trees Improved shade coffee and tea sys- in pastures in Argentina, Colombia, tems in El Salvador and Sri Lanka are Mexico, and Peru climate smart. Higher quality of shade coffee helps meet requirements for certi- • Intercropping in Argentina, Grenada, fication in El Salvador, shade species are Kenya, and Peru more resilient to drought, and nitrogen • Growing shade coffee and tea in El Sal- fixing trees provide shade and improve soil fertility. In Sri Lanka, improved pro- vador and Sri Lanka ductivity shade-grown tea reduces the • Rotating crops in bean and maize sys- need for irrigation, is more productive, tems in Rwanda and has a lower emissions footprint. • Intensifying cattle systems, and use of cattle dung as fertilizer in El Salvador of current practices on the scope for produc- • Rehabilitating hurricane-damaged nut- tivity gains, increased resilience and lower- meg fields in Grenada. ing emission for climate-smart practices (Figure 3). The scores comprise measures in The Country Profiles provide decision mak- six categories: weather, water, carbon, nitro- ers with a baseline on CSA—a valuable tool gen, energy, and knowledge. In addition, to facilitate preparation of national action the Country Profiles provide the national plans for CSA investments, strengthen- and regional policy context, and financing ing institutions and formulating policy. options. Production systems chosen in each While the Country Profiles do not include profile are specific to the socioeconomic and cost-benefit analysis or an assessment of cultural context of a country and are drawn barriers to the adoption of CSA practices up in consultation with farmers. and technologies, they provide a broad range of possibilities to potentially achieve the What do CSA Country Profiles reveal? “triple win” within diverse farming systems Results from previous profiles exercises have and across socioeconomic settings and agro- identified practical and achievable interven- climatic conditions. Some practices may tions and investments in a number of coun- simultaneously deliver higher productivity, tries. For example: improved resilience, and lower emissions at the farm level, while others, when combined, may deliver them at a landscape level. shaping a climate-smart global food system 15 Figure 3. Climate-Smart Agriculture Profiles for Policy Makers COLOMBIA COLOMBIA COLOMBIA MEXICO MEXICO MEXICO PERU PERU PERU 16 future of food 14 Pro les completed and 6 ongoing Accelerate completion in partnership with other countries GSDPM Map Design Unit IBRD 41875 | SEPTEMBER 2015 This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. GSDPM Map Design Unit IBRD 41875 | SEPTEMBER 2015 This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. More information: More information: http://climatechangeknowledgeportal.worldbank.org http://climatechangeknowledgeportal.worldbank.org http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/csa-pro les/ shaping a climate-smart global food system 17 How to Achieve Climate-Smartness? Role of Incentives, Knowledge, Science, and Finance Without a clear value proposition for farm- before they are likely to change their behav- ers and companies to make climate-smart iors, adopt new practices or invest in new investments and follow climate-smart technologies. As such, research and polices behaviors it will be challenging for CSA to need to clearly demonstrate how CSA will reach transformational scale. Fortunately, benefit both people and planet. Where the at the root of the majority of CSA interven- individual value proposition is weaker, public tions lies a focus on sustainable efficiency incentives should align to incentivize farm- and thereby an inherent value proposition. ers and companies to invest in CSA. It will For example, reduced use of fertilizers leads not always be the case that adoption of CSA to reduced costs; an increased efficiency in will result in short-term individual returns livestock leads to greater returns for feed and so, due to the public good nature of the and labor; solar irrigation results in reduced triple win, public resources should be aligned energy costs; a reduction in postharvest to catalyze action on CSA. losses and reduced retail/consumer wastage produces greater incomes, increased profits, Incentives, knowledge, and policies and reduced food bills. Highlighting and Realigning a variety of incentive policies demonstrating these gains to producers and currently in place can improve the climate businesses is an important and critical factor smartness of the food system. A range of that has not previously been a focus of tra- incentive policies are currently used by devel- ditional agricultural productivity approaches. oped and developing countries: market and Farmers need to see how they can sustain- input price support and direct payments to ably “make money, save money, or save time” 18 future of food agriculture. For example, in Organisation for Incentives to reduce deforestation driven Economic Co-operation and Development by agriculture require a systemic approach (OECD) countries over half of the producer to achieve success at scale. In addition to support estimate (PSE) is direct payments the realignment of existing sectoral incen- to agricultural producers, whereas in devel- tives, greater efforts are needed to target oping countries about 70 percent of the PSE incentives from REDD+ and other similar is market price supports.16 There is scope for approaches to reward agricultural produc- using these policies to achieve improved cli- ers for verified reductions in the pressure on mate-smart outcomes. As indicated earlier deforestation or reductions in direct emis- in this paper, there has already been adoption sions through intensification of their agri- of climate-smart practices in many countries, cultural production. This will require a shift and this can be accelerated with a better away from an approach that seeks to manage alignment of producer incentives. a perceived trade-off between food and for- ests and towards a food system approach that Aligning market price support and input focuses on maximizing synergies between and production policies to achieve better cli- forestry and agriculture. Where there is a mate outcomes. Price supports, inputs poli- risk that the success of intensification may cies, and restricting land to the production lead to extensification, this must be managed of certain crops can limit crop diversification, specifically, but should not hamper efforts to induce economic inefficiency, compromise operationalize a synergistic approach that productivity and resilience (with water and will deliver multiple beneficial outcomes. soil degradation), and lead to high GHG emissions. Design of market price support In some cases, barriers to adoption may be polices should consider the climate resilience lack of knowledge rather than incentives. and emission intensity of the likely produc- Information sharing, education, and training tion patterns they will induce. We need are critical for ensuring adoption of existing to accelerate the alignment of farm-level practices and technologies that can raise pro- incentives with better climate outcomes and ductivity and resilience, with positive miti- significantly more effort is needed in this gation co-benefits. Adoption has also often regard to enable the world to build a more been limited by institutional, regulatory, and climate-smart food system. financial constraints. Addressing the con- straints is essential to achieving the triple Aligning direct farm payments to better win. However, beyond existing technologies, climate outcomes. Making direct payments new technologies that better deliver the tri- to farmers conditional on adoption of climate ple win will need to be developed. While adaptation and mitigation practices will lead existing technologies are a good starting to better climate outcomes. This is already point and their broader application needs happening, as 30 percent of direct farm pay- to be scaled up, new technologies must be ments under the EU Common Agricultural developed to build a climate-smart food sys- Policy require adoption of environmentally tem and ensure the triple win. beneficial farming practices. shaping a climate-smart global food system 19 Public and private finance of longer-term supply arrangements will enable medium-term finance to flow to Increased amounts and types of private farmers in markets where there is an almost finance will be needed to enable farm- total lack of current liquidity (often driven ers and companies to invest in CSA. For- by a lack of deposits). This medium-term mal financing of the agricultural sector has finance is vital to enable farmers to make always been problematic due to perceptions longer-term investments into their farms and of heightened risk, low profitability, high to adopt technology, the costs of which can- disaggregation of farmers, and losses due not be borne by traditional seasonal finance. to quality and waste. While delivering on the three outcomes, CSA fundamentally Increasing opportunities for financial addresses a number of these traditional chal- innovation exist for agriculture. With the lenges. Farmers who increase their produc- expansion of formal climate finance through tivity become more profitable; farmers who such bodies as the Green Climate Fund increase their resilience and adapt to climate and the dramatic expansion in the green change present a better risk profile. The chal- bond market, new opportunities exist for lenge is to educate and persuade banks to agriculture to benefit from the delivery of both be able to quantify these improvements beneficial climate outcomes. The potential and to identify those farmers who are imple- to develop blended finance (for example, menting CSA. Equally, we must develop the where climate finance is used to improve opportunities to leverage the commercial credit terms for farmers), commodity- relationships within the food system. With related credit and price enhancements (such over 90 percent of risk and emissions lying as deforestation free palm oil) have increased at the production level in food supply chains, dramatically. Modern parametric approaches food processors and retailers must work with to risk quantification and monitoring have farmers to develop resilient supply chains led to the development of insurance type that help both sides to reduce risk and emis- products that have the ability to manage risk sions. The key to success lies in creating lev- more efficiently, especially at the aggregated eraged finance that will enable farmers to (for example, banks) level, and that can be invest in their farms and play a more active used to reduce the cost of finance for farm- role in established supply chains. ers. Increasingly, countries are introducing risk financing approaches and products that This new interdependence between farm- will enable the catastrophic layer of loss ers and companies is driving an improve- from events such as floods and droughts ment for farmers in terms of new financial to be managed by government and enable opportunities. Through financial tools such compensation to flow to farmers—for exam- as value chain finance, leveraged long-term ple, the Africa Risk Capacity initiative. The supply contracts, and innovative, participa- challenge for agricultural finance is to move tory outgrower schemes, the potential for away from a traditional, collateral-backed increased formal financial flows to agriculture financing model to one where finance flows is increasing. Critically, the establishment to equitable and sustainable farming systems 20 future of food so that climate finance and policies can play investment costs for farmers and reduce bar- a transformational role in achieving success riers to technology adoption in the future. through wider adoption of climate-smart approaches in the global food system. A leading example of how this invest- ment can deliver results at the global level Science is CGIAR, which is the leader in sci- A renewed urgency, and international and ence-based innovation for climate-smart national commitment, is needed to sus- agriculture. The CGIAR’s global system tain climate-smart agricultural research of 15 specialized science and research cen- to deliver needed science-based solutions. ters has generated breakthroughs that have We need to act now given that developing improved agricultural productivity and improved technologies can take many years. ecosystem resilience, leading to significant It requires commitment to strengthen agri- impacts through the broad uptake of tech- cultural research systems, build partnerships, nologies and innovation. Millions of farm- and engage the private sector to facilitate the ers now have access to improved varieties uptake of innovation at local levels. Devel- developed by the CGIAR Centers and their oping improved plant and livestock breeds partners through the national agricultural more adapted to changing climates to meet research programs, including disease-re- rising food demand while at the same time sistant wheat, drought-tolerant maize, and reducing emissions needs significantly more flood-tolerant “scuba” rice to name just a few. investment in agricultural research. At the Additionally, as a founding member of the international level, we need renewed com- Global Alliance for CSA (GACSA), a group mitment to fund climate-smart agricul- that has pledged to deliver climate-smart ture research that will deliver science-based innovations to half a billion farmers over 15 solutions and drive their adoption. At the years, the CGIAR has generated an exten- national level we need countries to strengthen sive evidence base of practical solutions and their own agricultural research systems and is amplifying their dissemination through engage the private sector to facilitate the GACSA. Significantly more funding for uptake of innovation and deliver action on the ground. Additionally, finance will need to flow to enable both farmers and compa- nies to deliver CSA at scale and do so in an enabling environment that catalyzes and supports concerted action. Given the time it takes for technology to move from research labs to farmers’ fields, those investments are needed now if we are to have the neces- sary tools in the next decade. This urgency is backed by a strong rationale for investing in triple-win solutions that help lower the shaping a climate-smart global food system 21 Programme (CAADP), agricultural R&D History shows investment in spending increased by more than one-third agriculture research has a from 2000 to 2011, but over one-half of that high social rate of return spending has been centered in just five coun- Rates of return to public investment in tries—Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tan- agricultural research and extension have zania and Uganda.18 Increased attention in been very high, averaging at least 40 per- national systems on developing and adapting cent (Alston et al. 2000). And the returns improved technology for better climate out- to investment in agriculture research on technologies that simultaneously raise comes is needed. productivity, increase climate resilience, and reduce GHG emissions are likely to Raising the efficiency of public investment be even higher; because the costs of cli- in agriculture research through long-term mate change to the food system, which strengthening of the policy and institu- that research will help limit, are mount- tional framework. Agricultural innovation ing. The volume and the efficiency of investment in agricultural science needs processes require long-term political com- to increase if we are to achieve better cli- mitment, financial stability, human resources, mate outcomes. and institutional strength—as demonstrated by Brazil, Uruguay, and other countries. In CGIAR is needed going forward to facili- Uruguay, more than a decade of national tate climate-smart innovation of the scale focus on sustainable intensification across necessary to enable the transition to a more systems and value chains, underpinned by climate-smart food system. strategic investment in agricultural science and technology, has translated into con- Building strong agricultural research sys- tinued growth in agricultural productiv- tems at the national level. Strong and sus- ity, climate change adaptation, and GHG tained support to agricultural R&D can have mitigation. large payoffs as reflected in its significant con- tribution to impressive agricultural growth Uruguay has quadrupled its agricul- achieved in Brazil, China and India. More tural production within a decade while significantly reducing per unit GHG emis- broadly, returns to investment in agricultural sion of food production. Investment research have been high and the benefits will in CSA research and a focused action only rise as the losses from climate-induced agenda on policy, investment, and sci- crop and livestock systems failure increase. ence to reap the benefits of CSA are However, investment in agricultural research paying off. Uruguay’s National Agricul- has been fairly uneven across countries and tural Information System which provides oversight of a soil use planning scheme, regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, has encouraged 96 percent of all crop which accounts for only 5 percent of global producers whose landholdings exceed public spending on agricultural research and 100 hectares to adopt CSA approaches, development.17 With increased attention to including the adoption of crop rotations agriculture through the Africa Union’s Com- that boost yields, reduce erosion, and prehensive Africa Agriculture Development enhance soil fertility. 22 future of food Bringing Solutions to Scale As the world mobilizes investments from The imperative for transformative action is public and private sources to meet the clear. If we continue to manage the food sys- SDGs, the nexus of food security, pro- tem following a “business as usual” approach, ductivity, and climate change has to come it is extremely difficult to see how we will into sharper focus. The momentum is also meet the requirement to produce 50 percent present—under the SDG framework, the more food by 2030. With yields flattening, international development community and the demand for animal protein growing, the many governments are reconfirming their population increasing and incomes improv- commitment to ending hunger, achieving ing, and an increasing rate of land degrada- food security and improved nutrition and tion, the headwinds against the food system promoting sustainable agriculture. The world reaching its critical goal are almost insur- needs to harness the potential of the global mountable. In the face of climate change food system to deliver solutions to the cli- and considering the negative impacts the mate problem within and beyond agricul- food system currently has on the climate, ture. In today’s context with a firm recogni- there is no doubt that a new approach to tion of the need to make visible progress on managing the food system is desperately making the food system more sustainable, needed. Equally, it is clear that an incremen- the attainment of at least half of the SDGs tal approach to the challenges will simply be rests upon the ability to ensure the food sys- “too little, too late” and that the biggest los- tem is productive, resilient, and contributing ers of failure to change will be the poor and to tackling climate change.19 especially the rural poor—the vast majority of whom are farmers. shaping a climate-smart global food system 23 From adversity we must seize opportunity. must come together to scale activities, to While the challenges appear to be mount- share experiences and to pool their resources ing, the focus must be on the fact that devel- and knowledge. Successful and unsuccessful opment of a climate-smart food system will approaches must be documented and built provide real opportunities for farmers, con- upon, enabling actors to catalyze change sumers, and the planet. CSA is fundamen- and build robust science. At the interna- tally an approach centered on sustainability, tional level, these efforts can be supported by efficiency, synergies, and equitable partner- initiatives such as GACSA and the Global ships. Where there are competing objectives, Research Alliance (GRA), acting as a clear- it specifically seeks to manage those trade- inghouse for knowledge and incubating stra- offs in an explicit and integrated way. Impor- tegic partnerships for country-level action. tantly, we know that CSA is an achievable and deliverable approach that is already Investment must flow today to create the beginning to show results in a wide range of science of tomorrow. While we do know geographies and production systems. of a large number of existing successful approaches that can deliver CSA, it is clear To deliver we must focus on results and be that we will need new solutions for the planet aspirational. Given the clear metrics and that we will face tomorrow. For example, we timelines that exist around global food secu- need fertilizers that are vastly more effi- rity and agriculture-related GHG emissions cient in plant nutrition and simultaneously and the science that determines that action reduce emissions and negative environmen- must be decisive and swift, we must focus tal impacts. We need the plants and animals on where the need is greatest and at scale. that are much better adapted to higher and Our greatest efforts must be focused on more variable temperatures. We require plant those sectors and geographies where existing systems that combine multicropping with an solutions can deliver immediate results on increase in productivity. In the face of clear the triple win and on those emerging areas planetary boundaries we must manage our where we can blend CSA approaches with natural resources with a much greater return opportunities to sequester carbon or avoid on natural capital and reduced negative emissions. Increasingly, we must focus on impact on the environment. The transforma- monitoring results that have until recently tive solutions will come from a determined not been a focus for the agricultural sector and focused investment in the science which but are critical to its survival and well-being will address these challenges that will deliver (GHG emissions, soil health, animal pro- practical approaches that can be adopted at ductivity, nutritional content). scale for a broad range of farming systems, but especially for smallholders. We must build the partnerships to enable action. The size of the challenge will neces- Public policy must focus on delivering both sitate the creation of new and dynamic private and public goods. Delivering global partnerships that deliver action. Regional, food security in the face of climate change national, and local groups of stakeholders is one of the greatest challenges facing the 24 future of food planet, and increasingly public policy must risk-adjusted and competitive financing will seek to deliver on a number of different but be critical to enable these investments, as will aligned objectives with less resources. Both be the existence of stable and transparent policy development and execution must be legislation and existence of strong property considered across a matrix of sectoral and rights. Additionally, farmers and companies public/private objectives. To achieve this we will need to clearly see the potential financial need to realize that while agriculture is the returns before they will be prepared to invest, route to food security, there are multiple des- even if finance is freely available. Where that tinations—nutrition, environmental protec- value proposition is weak but potential pub- tion, natural resource efficiency, incomes and lic good returns are high, public finance will livelihoods for the majority of the world’s be required to develop attractive financing poor—and that policies must be aligned to mechanisms and returns for farmers and enable farmers to deliver. Equally, these poli- companies. cies must incentivize and support farmers to produce positive externalities for the public In order to have transformative impact, good, not simply support their creation of we need to scale up successes—urgently private goods. and widely—by bringing together the best science with the best business practices to Without finance and a clear value proposi- achieve the CSA potential to achieve the tion, action will not flow at scale. Without triple win. A global effort is needed. The access to finance, especially for medium- challenges we face affect all of humanity, not term investments, farmers and compa- nies will be unable to act at scale. While one region, or one sector, or one economic initial action will be possible where CSA stratum. Whether big business, small farmer, is based on resource efficiency, often gain- or government policy maker, we all need to ing these efficiencies in the long term and take responsibility for creating a food system capturing other returns will rely on medi- that is climate-smart, people focused, and um-term investments. Availability of properly planet friendly. shaping a climate-smart global food system 25 Annex Table What Do CSA Country Profiles Tell? — Practices Delivering the CSA Triple Win Adaptation / Country CSA Practice Productivity Resilience Mitigation Kenya, Mexico, Agroforestry in Diversification of Microclimate and All countries: Peru, Colombia crops, trees and livelihoods and water regulation, soil Enhanced carbon livestock systems increased income per conservation sinks in Kenya; coffee unit area systems in Mexico and Colombia; plantain systems in Peru Colombia, Silvopastoral systems Livelihoods Greater resilience of All countries: Peru, Mexico, in cattle farming diversification, livestock production Increased carbon Argentina increased stocking due to improved soil sequestration rates per hectare quality, microclimate regulation Peru, Grenada, Intercropping Increased crop Reduced climate All countries: Kenya, (maize with other diversification; in risks, greater Improved biomass, Argentina crops, bean, quinoa, Kenya, productivity efficiency in water increased carbon soybean, fruit, etc. and efficiency of soil and soil use sequestration; in Peru; fruit trees and water use; in Peru and Grenada: and vegetables in Argentina, reduced reduced nitrogen Grenada; cereals/ yield loss due to emissions from legumes with beans, sterility from high fertilizer; pigeon peas, cowpeas temperatures during Argentina: reduced in Kenya; wheat with flowering yield gap legumes in Argentina) El Salvador, Improved shade Improved quality Selection and All countries: Sri Lanka coffee systems in and quantity of maintenance of Tree cover El Salvador; shade yields (requirement shade species maintained or management in for certification) in improves resilience increased; tea production in Sri El Salvador and, in to drought, climatic El Salvador: Lanka Sri Lanka, improved variability and incorporation of productivity and disease (El Salvador); nitrogen-fixing reduced irrigation improved soil species needs moisture retention El Salvador Diversification, crop New sources of Alternatives to Maintained switching in coffee income from coffee in areas productive tree production production of cocoa affected by rising cover in areas no and fruits temperatures and longer suitable for spread of disease coffee Grenada Rehabilitation of Productive use of Watersheds Carbon storage hurricane-damaged otherwise marginal protection in upland through increased nutmeg fields uplands, high-quality areas tree cover and soil products for export conservation El Salvador Semi-stabled cattle, Reduced expenditure Increased resilience Soil conservation with cut-and-carry on feed and food to drought and through reduced pasture systems supplements rising cost of cattle grazing on steep feed slopes El Salvador Cattle dung Compost and fuel by- Improved hygiene Reduced methane processing products contributes to emissions, reduced control of pests and application of diseases nitrogen-based fertilizers 26 future of food Adaptation / Country CSA Practice Productivity Resilience Mitigation Mexico Cover crops in maize Less need for inputs, Water infiltration Reduced nitrogen production which reduces costs increased, which fertilizer use reduces risks of lowering emissions Higher productivity floods from increased soil fertility Mexico Minimum tillage in Increased productivity Increased water Promoted carbon maize production due to higher content retention reduces storage in soil of nutrient in soils crop losses due to Reduced energy drought needs for irrigation Sri Lanka Contour planting in Reduces input costs Ditches and other Improved soil maize production related to irrigation contour practices quality reduces and fertilizers, minimize surface need for synthetic while increasing runoff and improve fertilizers and productivity the soil’s water- reduces associated retention capacity GHG emissions Argentina Biofertilizers in Improved soil Improves soil Reduces the need multicrop systems fertility favors crop organic carbon and for chemical productivity soil nutrients and fertilizers that can help in disease generally contribute biocontrol high GHG emissions Sri Lanka Short and ultra-short More stable and less More suitable for Improved emissions duration varieties in variable yields, with short and low intensity due rice systems potential income rainfall seasons; to productivity implications reduces yield loss increases due to little water during flowering stage Rwanda Crop rotation in bean Reduces the incidence Improved soil Lowering and maize systems of crop diseases, structure and lower production costs smarter use of emissions due to while increasing nutrients and nitrogen lower need for productivity fertilizer fertilizer Sources: (1) World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2014. Climate-Smart Agriculture Country Profiles for Latin America Series; (2) World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture Country Profiles for Sri Lanka, Kenya and Rwanda. Note: Selected examples. The full range of practices is presented in CSA Country Profiles. Analysis for Sri Lanka, Rwanda, and Kenya is ongoing and results are subject to change. shaping a climate-smart global food system 27 Endnotes 1. N. Yoshida, H. Uematsu, and C. Sobrado, M. Howden, T. McAllister, G. Pan, V. (2014). “Is Extreme Poverty Going to End? Romanenkov, U. Schneider, S. Towprayoon, An Analytical Framework to Evaluate M. Wattenbach, and J. Smith, (2008). Progress in Ending Extreme Poverty.” Policy “Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Agriculture.” Research Working Paper 6740 (Washington, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 363 (1492): 789–813. DC: World Bank, 2014). 11. R. Lal, (2004). “Soil Carbon Sequestration 2. World Bank, (2015). “Ending Poverty and Impacts on Global Climate Change and Food Hunger by 2030. An Agenda for the Global Security.” Science 304: 1623. Food System” (Washington, D.C: World 12. FAO, (2011). Global Food Losses and Food Bank, 2015). Waste—Extent, Causes and Prevention. Rome. 3. Ibid. 13. World Bank, (2015). Poverty and Climate 4. World Bank, (2010). World Development Change (Washington, DC: World Bank, Report 2010: Development and Climate Change 2015), 24–27. (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010), 146. 14. Ibid. 5. Havlik, P., H. Valin, M. Gusti, N. Forsell, M. 15. CSA Country Profiles were jointly developed Herro, D. Leclere, N. Khabarov, A. Mosnier, by the World Bank, CIAT, and CATIE for M. Obersteiner, and E. Schmidt, (2015). “Cli- seven countries in LAC and are now being mate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the scaled up to other regions, with profiles just Developing World: Integrated Assessment of finalized for Rwanda, Sri Lanka, and Kenya. Agriculture and Forestry Sectors.” Background CIAT, a CGIAR center, is also currently paper to the World Bank report “Climate implementing the profiles jointly with Change and Poverty.” Washington, D.C. USAID for several countries in West Africa. 6. Porter, J.R., L. Xie, A.J. Challinor, K. 16. OECD (Organisation for Economic Cochrane, S.M. Howden, M.M. Iqbal, D.B. Co-operation and Development) Agricul- Lowbell, and M. I. Travasso, (2014): “Food tural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2013: Security and Food Production Systems” In: OECD Countries and Emerging Economies Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptaiton, and (Paris: OECD, 2013). Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth 17. IFPRI, (2012). ASTI Global Assessment of Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel Agricultural R&D Spending. Washington on Climate Change. Cambridge University DC. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New 18. Nienke Beintema and Gert-Jan Stads, “Agri- York, NY, USA. Pp. 502, 511. cultural R&D: Is Africa Investing Enough?” 7. World Bank, (2013). Turn Down the Heat: in Global Food Policy Report (Washington, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the DC: IFPRI, 2013), 53–62. Case for Resilience (Washington, DC: World 19. Agriculture, and the food system more Bank, 2013), 10. broadly, stands to make a major contribu- 8. Ibid. tion to the progress on at least eight more SDGs; on ending poverty; ensuring healthy 9. World Resources Institute, (2013). Creating a lives; achieving gender equality; sustainable Sustainable Future: A Menu of Solutions to Sus- management of water; promoting sustained tainably Feed More People by 2050 (Washing- and inclusive economic growth; ensuring sus- ton, DC: World Resources Institute, 2013). tainable consumption and production patters; 10. P. Smith, D. Martino, Z. Cai, D. Gwary, H. combatting climate change and its impacts; Janzen, P. Kumar, B. McCarl, S. Ogle, F. and promoting sustainable use of terrestrial O’Mara, C. Rice, B. Scholes, O. Sirotenko, ecosystems. 28 future of food 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org/agriculture www.worldbank.org/foodsecurity Twitter: @WBG_Agriculture