Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Central Asia | Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2011 | Seq No: 12 | ARCHIVED on 27-Dec-2017 | ISR31099 | Implementing Agencies: Tajikhydromet, Kyrgyzhydromet, Ministry of Finance, EC-IFAS Regional Center for Hydrology (RCH) Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:26-May-2011 Effectiveness Date:11-Nov-2011 Planned Mid Term Review Date:06-Oct-2014 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:17-May-2014 Original Closing Date:31-Aug-2016 Revised Closing Date:30-Jun-2018 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) is to improve the accuracy and timeliness of hydromet services in Central Asia, with particular focus on Kyrgyz Republic and Republic of Tajikistan. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Component A: Strengthening regional coordination and information sharing.:(Cost $8.70 M) Component B: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Kyrgyz Republic.:(Cost $6.00 M) Component C: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Republic of Tajikistan.:(Cost $13.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Moderate  Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions 12/27/2017 Page 1 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) CAHMP has played a key role in enhancing collaboration, information sharing and capacity building among four NMHSs in Central Asia. The project has made substantial progress in strengthening regional collaboration and institutional capacity of the four involved NMHSs. Through joint capacity building such as forecaster training, NMHS technical staff have developed operational relationships for collaboration, mutual support and recognition of the regional and national benefits of data sharing. The Project has also provided a management-level platform for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to closely collaborate, build consensus on forward-looking enhancements and agree the aspects of weather/climate and hydrological information services that need to be managed with a regional dimension. For example, the four countries are collaborating on operational regional numerical weather prediction, using global and regional resources and expertise to improve national weather forecasting under the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project in Central Asia (SWFDP-CA). KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are improving their services and therefore their utility for government ministries, partners and the public. Within KyrgzyHydromet and TajikHydromet, mindsets and perceptions have gradually shifted from a traditional government scientific agency approach focusing on technical activities, to a more user-oriented service provider approach, increasingly focusing on understanding and meeting user information needs. Promoting this cultural shift, the Project has supported activities such as preparation and subsequent approval of business development plans for KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet, which have further improved the potential for sustainability. In both cases, the statuses and budgets of these agencies have increased during project implementation, indicating improved recognition by government, in response to improved performance. In addition, KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are now able to contribute more information and expertise to regional efforts, for example leading the identification of regional capacity building needs for certain themes under the Bank’s Strengthening Early Warning of Mountain Hazards in Central Asia (P158373) technical assistance project. 12/27/2017 Page 2 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 12/27/2017 Page 3 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 12/27/2017 Page 4 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 12/27/2017 Page 5 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  Moderate  Moderate Macroeconomic  --  Moderate  Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Substantial  Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program  --  Substantial  Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  Substantial  Substantial Fiduciary  --  Moderate  Moderate Environment and Social  --  Low  Low Stakeholders  --  Substantial  Substantial Other  --  --  -- Overall  --  Moderate  Substantial Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Increased accuracy of river flow forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM: 83% KgHM: 83% KgHM: 85% Value KgHM 62% TjHM 64% TjHM: 75% TjHM: 75% TjHM: 80% Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 12/27/2017 Page 6 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDPDOTBL  Increased accuracy and timeliness of basic weather forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 76% for KgHM and 66% for TjHM KgHM: 94.7% KgHM: 94.7% KgHM: 85% Value TjHM: 85% TjHM: 85% TjHM: 85% Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDPDOTBL  Timeliness of weather forecast data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1. Timeliness of weather forecast data: Kyrgyz KgHM: 2.80 KgHM: 3.81 KgHM: 3.81 Hydromet: Value Tajikhydromet - TjHM: 2.90 TjHM: 4.26 TjHM: 4.26 2. User satisfaction: Kyrgyz Hydromet: Tajikhydromet - Date 17-Jun-2016 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 29-Jun-2018 Overall Comments Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 4) Increased institutional strength and sustainability of Kyrgyzhydromet (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Existing legal structure, KgHM prepared a list KgHM prepared a list of KgHM new operating procedures and of operational operational guidelines regulations and staffing are inadequate to guidelines necessary necessary for operations operational meet KgHM mission#s for operations in light of in light of modernized guidelines Value needs. modernized infrastructure; the terms developed in infrastructure; the of reference to draft line with new Investment and O&M terms of reference to these is being concept, needs far exceed KgHM draft these is being developed. modernized budgets. developed. observation 12/27/2017 Page 7 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) “Fee-for-service” infrastructure “Fee-for-service” arrangements have and arrangements have been piloted in few technologies been piloted in few sectors, resulting in a sectors, resulting in a 7% increase in the Kyrgyzhydrome 7% increase in the special account funds. t prepared a list special account funds. The Marketing of operational The Marketing Department has initiated guidelines Department has regular quality survey necessary for initiated regular quality assessments of users, work in light of survey assessments of and is implementing the modernized users, and is simplification of the infrastructure; implementing payment system for the terms of simplification of the KgHM services. reference are payment system for being KgHM services. KgHM budget is now developed sufficient to cover O&M KgHM KgHM budget is now needs of regular regulations and sufficient to cover O&M operations. operation needs of regular guidelines fully operations. functioning “Fee-for- service” arrangements piloted in few sectors KgHM budget sufficient to cover O&M needs of regular operations Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 3) Increased sustainability and strengthened performance of Tajikhydromet operations (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target New regulations and New regulations and TjHM new operational guidelines operational guidelines regulations and developed in line with developed in line with operational new concept, new concept, guidelines modernized modernized observation developed in Existing legal structure, observation infrastructure and line with new operating procedures and infrastructure and technologies are fully concept, staffing are inadequate to technologies are fully functioning. modernized Value meet TjHM mission needs. functioning. observation Investment and O&M “Fee-for-service” infrastructure needs far exceed TjHM “Fee-for-service” arrangement piloted in and budgets. arrangement piloted in few sectors, in particular technologies few sectors, in energy, agriculture, particular energy, housing and TjHM agriculture, housing transportation. For 10 regulations and and transportation. For months of 2017, 9 operational 10 months of 2017, 9 contracts were signed guidelines fully 12/27/2017 Page 8 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) contracts were signed for about US$5000. functional for about US$5000. In April 2017 TjHM "Fee-for- In April 2017 TjHM requested the service" requested the Environmental arrangement Environmental Protection Committee to piloted in a few Protection Committee submit the draft budget sectors to submit the draft of Tajikhydromet to the budget of Finance Ministry of TjHM budget Tajikhydromet to the taking into account the sufficient to Finance Ministry of allocation of additional cover O&M taking into account the funds for the O&M of the needs of allocation of additional upgraded observation regular funds for the O&M of network. Currently, no operations. the upgraded additional funds for O & observation network. M are needed. Currently, no additional funds for O & M are needed. Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 5) Increased reliability of climate data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Ability to Information on climate Ability to downscale Ability to downscale downscale to Value limited and of inadequate local scales for at least local scales for at least local scales for quality 90% of the country 90% of the country at least 90% of the country Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 13% of meteostations gauging main gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo meteo parameters. parameters. parameters parameters 100% of stream 100% of stream gauges Value 44% of stream gauges 70% of stream gauges reporting reporting operational reporting operational data gauges operational data. data. reporting 70% stream gauges operational 95% stream gauges 95% stream gauges measuring discharges data measuring discharges. measuring discharges. 85% stream 12/27/2017 Page 9 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) gauges measuring discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 85% 85% Value 86.00 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 90% of meteostations gauging main 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations meteo 19% of meteostations gauging main meteo gauging main meteo parameters gauging main meteo parameters parameters parameters 50% of stream 50% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges gauges Value 16% of stream gauges reporting operational reporting operational reporting reporting operational data data data operational data 49% stream gauges 60% stream gauges 60% stream gauges measuring discharges measuring discharges measuring discharges 90% stream gauges measuring discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 12/27/2017 Page 10 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 70.00 95.00 95.00 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 1): Improved access to national and regional numeric weather prediction products to all CA countries (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 13 x 13 km every 6 13 x 13 km every 6 hours hours The calculation results The calculation results based on ftp are being based on ftp are being transmitted for the transmitted for the regional grid of regional grid of resolution 13.2x13.2 resolution 13.2x13.2 km km using the adapted using the adapted COSMO technology in COSMO technology in Uzhydromet and other Uzhydromet and other NHMS CAs. NHMS CAs. The system of local The system of local calculations for 100x250 km transmitted calculations for 13x13 km every Value COSMO-CentralAsia-2 every 12 hours COSMO-CentralAsia-2 6 hours with a resolution of 2x2 with a resolution of 2x2 km is organized. km is organized. The COSMO-CA-2 The COSMO-CA-2 technology software technology software was was developed for developed for further further installation at installation at Uzhydromet. Uzhydromet. Installation Installation of of dedicated high dedicated high powered computing powered computing facilities is currently facilities is currently under way at under way at UzHydromet. UzHydromet. Date 10-Dec-2015 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 12/27/2017 Page 11 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 2): Established platform for integration of four NHMSs in CA (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Common methodology to verify hydromet Common methodology forecasting accuracy to verify hydromet developed and used. forecasting accuracy developed and used. Installation of the Distance Learning Installation of the System (DLS) is Distance Learning completed (Almaty, System (DLS) is Bishkek, Dushanbe completed (Almaty, and Tashkent). Bishkek, Dushanbe and Tashkent). Guidelines and approaches to regional Guidelines and procedures for approaches to regional emergency prevention procedures for agreed by CA NHMS in emergency prevention 2014. agreed by CA NHMS in 2014. In Cholpon-Ata Lake Observatory of In Cholpon-Ata Lake Regional Kyrgyzhydromet, a new Observatory of approach regional training center Kyrgyzhydromet, a new adopted in on lakes and water regional training center hydromet reservoirs was on lakes and water Lack of agreed regional forecasting and established for CA reservoirs was approaches on knowledge decision- Value specialists. established for CA exchange and emergency making specialists. procedures mechanism for By December 2016, all regional issues activities related to By December 2016, all formalized creation of the regional activities related to among the four system to access to creation of the regional NHMSs in CA online information system to access to products based on online information satellite data in products based on Kazakhstan, satellite data in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan was Tajikistan and completed. Uzbekistan was completed. Implementation of the cascading method of Implementation of the severe weather cascading method of forecasting (SWFDP- severe weather CA) is ongoing - it is forecasting (SWFDP- operational and CA) is ongoing - it is currently being operational and currently transitioned from being transitioned from Moscow Moscow (RosHydromet) (RosHydromet) to to Tashkent Tashkent (UzHydromet). (UzHydromet). Date 10-Dec-2015 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 12/27/2017 Page 12 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Component B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 3) Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 2,125,000 pages 2,125,000 pages Value 0.00 800,000 scanned scanned Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Component C Tajikistan, IRI 4): Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1,130,500 pages - 1,130,500 pages - Value 0.00 scanning of data is scanning of data is 800,000 complete complete Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2018 Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P120788 IDA-49340 Effective USD 5.10 5.10 0.00 3.93 0.76 77% P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective USD 8.70 8.70 0.00 6.89 1.08 79% P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective USD 0.90 0.90 0.00 0.64 0.23 71% P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective USD 6.00 6.00 0.00 5.55 0.00 92% P120788 TF-99848 Effective USD 7.00 7.00 0.00 6.85 0.15 98% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P120788 IDA-49340 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 12/27/2017 Page 13 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective 26-May-2011 12-Jul-2011 12-Jan-2012 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective 26-May-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 P120788 TF-99848 Effective 13-Jul-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 30-Jun-2018 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 28-Jan-2016 Related Project(s) P164780-Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) Additional Financing 12/27/2017 Page 14 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy