Report No. 12663 Report on the World Bank Research Program January 1994 Office of the Vice President, Development Economics and Chief Economist FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. THE WORLD BANK Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. LEWIS T. PRESTON President MEMORANDUM TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS Subject: Bank Group Research Program The Bank has a rich and varied research program that sustains its intellectual leadership in the field of development and contributes significantly to the content of the Bank's operations. The Report on the research program prepared for the Executive Directors provides an overview of ongoing and recently completed research activities; describes trends in the composition of research; defines the nature of future research strategy; and as a special topic, explores an aspect of the Bank's research which highlights its contribution to the cause of development. As has been the practice in the past, the Report is divided into three parts. Part I is devoted to the topic of research capacity building, its importance to the Bank and the manner in which it complements the Bank's own research and lending. This section covers the several different facets of capacity building from the creation of research centers, the financing of regional conferences, to the provision of scholarships and Visiting Research Fellowships. The current trends in Bank research and some of the major findings are discussed in Part II. This section indicates how research has been affected by the reorganization and the forming of the central vice presidencies. It also brings out the strength and productivity of the research effort in core fields such as poverty as well as the fruitfulness of the work on the relatively new field, the economics of transition. Future research directions are detailed in Part III. The themes sketched there reveal both the continuing focus on issues that are central to the Bank's mission as well as the flexibility with which the Bank is responding to new challenges. At a time when the pivotal role of knowledge in promoting development has become even more significant, the importance of the Bank's research and the contribution it can make needs no underlining. I look forward to receiving your views on this program and your sense of whether it fully responds to the challenges we face. REPORT ON THE WORLD BANK RESEARCH PROGRAM FISCAL 1992 AND 1993 Bank research-objectives and definition The Bank's research program has four basic goals: * To support all aspects of Bank operations, including the assessment of development progress in member countries. * To broaden understanding of the development process. * To improve the Bank's capacity to give policy advice to its members. * To assist in developing indigenous research capacity in member countries. This report's definition of research, like that used in recent years, encompasses analytic work designed to produce results with wide applicability across countries or sectors. Bank research, in contrast to academic research, is directed toward analyzing recognized and emerging policy issues and improving the quality of policy advice. Although motivated by policy problems, Bank research addresses longer-term concerns rather than the immediate needs of a particular Bank lending operation or of a particular country or sector report. Its definition does not, therefore, include the economic and sector work and policy analysis carried out by Bank staff intended only to support specific operations in particular countries. Economic and sector work and policy studies take the product of research and adapt it to particular projects or country settings, whereas Bank research contributes to the broader understanding of development processes that underlies future lending operations and policy advice. Both activities-research and economic and sector work-are critical to the design of successful projects and effective policy. Contents Executive summary iii Part I Building research capacity 1 Major regional initiatives 1 Support for conferences to promote regional research 4 Support for collaborative research 5 Training 6 Future directions 8 Part II Review of the Bank's fiscal 1992-93 research program 9 Research funding and management 10 Overview of World Bank research projects and priorities 11 Dissemination of Bank research 22 Evaluations of World Bank research programs 22 Part III Research directions for fiscal 1994 and beyond 25 Research strategy 25 Allocation of research responsibilities 26 New research 27 Notes 33 Appendix tables 37 i Executive summary Economists have devoted enormous energy to lating them is research, which deliberately sets understanding the causes of growth. This atten- out to advance the frontiers of usable knowledge tion is entirely appropriate in view of its signifi- or to assimilate ideas in ways that are fruitful in cance for human welfare worldwide and for de- economicterms.Experiencesuggeststhatresearch veloping countries in particular. More than three is one of the most effective ways of productively decades ago, when growth became the object of engaging existing ideas even as it attempts to rigorous analysis, it emerged that capital and la- unlock the door to fresh thinking. The East Asian bor had a notable part, but smaller than had long countries that lead the world in growth perfor- been assumed. A sizable share of growth could mance are conspicuous not only for the quality of not be explained by factor inputs. This residual, their education systems but also for the volume of labeled total factor productivity (TFP), is a mea- resources they are pouring into research. Initially sure of our ignorance and was a source of both much of this research focused on assimilating frustration and opportunity. So long as the princi- knowledge from technologically advanced econo- pal determinants of growth remained elusive, mies. Increasingly, though, East Asia's industrial- policies could be based only on informed conjec- izing nations are emerging as innovators in their ture rather than on widely acknowledged, empiri- own right. For instance, their successful approach cal proof. At the same time, the enigmatic nature to economic management and industrial organi- of the growth process has served to focus intellec- zation has stimulated a reappraisal of accepted tual energy on understanding it. The accumulated conventions about the role of government and the results of several decades of trying are some pow- efficacy of markets. erful findings with profound implications for the Research takes many forms, but it is economic Bank's operations in developing countries. research that most engages the World Bank and in By unpacking the residual, economists are per- which the Bank is equipped to make an interna- ceiving more fully some of the less tangible forces tional contribution. The value of economic re- driving growth. Of these, the major ones are edu- search is enhanced by externalities. It is capableof cation and ideas. Education leads to a steady yielding insights and findings that, harnessed to accumulation of skills. Ideas make possible new policy, can raise efficiency across a broad range of and more productive combinations of economic activities. Moreover, research offers guidance on resources and their management. They are not techniques of macromanagement crucial for ob- just the stepping stones for realizing an economy's taining the stable environment most conducive to full potential; they define that potential as well. growth. Ideas that impinge on economic systems arise Since it was founded, the Bank has invested from a wide range of sources. Perhaps the most substantial resources in understanding the dy- effective means of generating ideas or of assimi- namics of development. This learning has been iii shared with the Bank's clients using a variety of sis research grants as a means of encouraging channels, most notably the policy dialogue con- graduate-level work in African universities. By all nected with economic and sector work and lend- accounts, AERC has met if not exceeded its objec- ing operations. Findings from the Bank's research tives. The creation of the center has been described that are most impressive and relevant to policy are by one reviewer as "a timely and precisely tar- described in these periodic reports on the Bank geted response to the crisis confronting the eco- research program. Others are reported at regular nomics profession in Africa." intervals through the Bank's research journals, in * Sponsoring conferences to bring together other publications, and in newsletters. scholars from developing countries and to accel- The accumulated results of this research have erate research, raise standards, and reinforce dis- provided an empirical baseon whichpolicymakers semination efforts. The Bank has been active in can rely with some confidence. The conduct of Latin America and Africa. For instance, it has researchand thedisseminationofitsresultsbythe provided funding for the Latin American meet- Bank have been supplemented by parallel efforts ings of the Econometric Society, which bring to- to create indigenous research capacity in client gether some of the best work on applied econom- countries. The goal is to help countries acquire the ics, primarily by researchers from the region but tools to do their own research and to meet needs including contributions by academics from North that cannot easilybe satisfied fromexternal sources America, Europe, and Asia. The meetings not only alone. Local researchers and institutes are better serve to upgrade research, they also contribute to able to marshal the information on culture, insti- the training of future generations of economists. tutions, and behavior needed to accurately frame * Supporting collaborative research projects hypotheses and interpret results. with researchers and research institutes in devel- The Bank's efforts to engender research capac- oping countries. Such collaboration has a training ity among its developing country clients are the and dissemination function as well. With regard theme of this report, and are discussed in Part I. to the former, the Bank has made significant head- Part II presents the highlights of the fiscal 1992 and way especially through some of its large, survey- 1993 research program and summarizes key re- based research projects. One example is the Indo- sults. The report concludes with a section outlin- nesian Resource Mobilization Study being con- ing the direction for Bank research over the next ducted jointly with the University of Indonesia few years. and the RAND Corporation. A second is an exer- cise to measure and explain industrial productiv- Capacity building ity in China. In both cases training for local re- searchers in the design and use of survey instru- The Bank has used a mix of approaches to build ments has been an important additional benefit. research capacity. These are: * Inviting scholars from around the world to * Financing organizations to spur domestic re- join ongoing research and to draw on the Bank's search and to serve as nodes for local research substantial experience in the field of development networks that can support the exchange of views and its large fund of data. The Visiting Research through workshops, publication, and other means. Fellows Program, which brings scholars from Part The most notable and successful example of these II as well as Part I countries to the Bank for several is the African Economic Research Center (AERC). months to conduct research, is the principal ex- Established in 1988 with funding from six interna- ample. It is now in its fifth year. A recently com- tional and bilateral agencies, including the World pleted evaluation strongly commends the pro- Bank, the Nairobi-based AERC has emerged as gram and suggests ways of increasing the benefits one of the leading promoters of research activity from it. in Africa. It has encouraged networking and coop- * Sponsoring training programs, especially eration among researchers and helped anchor a through the Economic Development Institute system based on peer review and positive rein- (EDI),tosharpenawarenessamongpolicymakers forcement that leads researchers from proposal of how research can improve the quality of deci- stage to publication. AERC has sponsored bi- sions. EDI has continued to pursue innovative annual workshops that bring together African approaches to training. Most recently it initiated a and foreign scholars, thereby stimulating produc- program to bring staff members of central banks tive debate and cooperative research. On a limited and ministries of finance to Columbia University scale, AERC has supported training through the- for a one-year master's degree program in eco- iv nomic management, followingwhich they serve a development was the doubling in the volume of six-month internship at the Bank or the IMF. In external funding between fiscal 1992 and fiscal addition to EDI's efforts, summer internships and 1993 from $2.7 million to $5.5 million, with re- training fellowships provided by the Bank are sources for research on environmental issues and helping large numbers of Part II country nationals the private sector rising threefold. Investigationof acquire the tools of research. private sector development was spurred by changes taking place in Eastern Europe and the The research program: 1992-93 former Soviet Union. Although the sectoral vice presidencies absorbed two-thirdsof external fund- The review of the Bank's research program in ing, their share was down substantially from the fiscal 1992 and fiscal 1993 in Part II of this report 95 percent level of 1992, reflecting the shift of highlights both the continuity and the changing research to DEC. emphasis of the Bank's work: the challenges and, The encouragement given to small-scale, short- most centrally, the long-term issues and persis- duration research ventures that enable theBank to tent problems that face policymakers in develop- cover a broader range of relevant analytic and ing countries. To deal with this fluidity in the empiricalissueshasalteredthecompositionofthe work requires a flexibility in resources and orga- Research Support Budget (RSB) portfolio. The nization different from that evident in the Bank's numberofprojectsbelow the$100,000range tripled operations programs. It is reflected in the alloca- between fiscal 1991 and fiscal 1993, while the tion of resources across divisions and topics in expenditure on this category rose twofold to $2.5 fiscal 1992-93. Brief references to the type of find- million. ingsemergingfromresearchconstitutethebulkof The research on poverty alleviation has re- this section, which concludes with summaries of sponded to tightening government budgets the fiscal 1992-93 evaluations of various facets of through the development of strategies to more the research program. effectively target social expenditures to the most In the 1990s, as economic and sector work has needy. And investigations into the results of the increased, therelativeshare of researchand policy range of activities to reduce income instability in the Bank's analytical work has slowly declined, have produced important findings about the rela- Research constituted about 14 percentof the Bank's tive effectiveness and indirect costs of strategies analytical work in fiscal 1992-93 compared with used in the household, the community, and the over 16 percent in fiscal 1990-91; economic and private and public sectors. Research on the range sector work consumed 63 percent, and policy of income security measures for old age finds that work another 23 percent of the total. The separa- a mandatory retirement savings component of tion of OSP from PRE in fiscal 1992 and the Bank such systems is seldom in place-and could pro- reorganization in fiscal 1993 resulted in further vide greater and more equitable benefits to pen- consolidation of research in theDevelopment Eco- sioners while alleviating fiscal burdens. nomicsVicePresidency(DEC),increasingitsshare A major factor in the ability of households to from46 to 53 to63 percent fromfiscall991 through adapt to economic crisis is the human capital- fiscal 1993. The reorganization is also reflected in education, training, experience, and health-pos- the sharp drop in operational staff time devoted to sessed by household members. Allocation of pub- research, especially in the technical departments. lic health funding, interactions between health Among the various areas of research, the shares and education programs, private versus public ofpovertyand of closely related human resources, provision of services, and the successes and fail- privatesectordevelopment,and theenvironment ures of programs directed to girls and women have all increased. Meanwhile, as a number of were studied. The importance of the interactions major activities have approached completion, re- between the factors that influence human capital search on adjustment, trade, and debt has dimin- development becomes clear in the findings of two ished, although it retains the largest share of Bank critical studies, one on the roles of public and financing for research. private schools, the otheron theeducationof girls. Over 43 percent of external funding for research Both prescribe a comprehensive package of re- was devoted to environment-related issues in fis- forms or activities that do not, individually, sig- cal 1993. This was followed by private sector nificantly affect outcomes, but, when combined, development and economic management, with 22 greatly improve educational outcomes. Similarly, percent and 16 percent respectively. A notable infrastructureresearchontheinteractionbetween V water, sanitation, and health care systems found changesin theselectionof articlesand themodeof that the benefits from a comprehensive strategy presentation and in a marketing drive to enlarge across the three sectors were much greater than the journals' readership. This doubled the num- the sum of the outcomes from independently ber of paying subscribers and tripled complimen- planned expenditures on the three sectors. tary subscriptions in developing countries. Researchon transitionaleconomiesrangesacross To encourage researchers to give thought at the a wide variety of issues, but at its heart is the work start of the project cycle to the dissemination of on the establishment and growth of the private findings, the Research Committee requires that sector, on social programs to protect labor and each proposal present detailed dissemination households during the transition, and on the re- plans. Many projects now explicitly allocate funds form of government to affect economic manage- for seminars. Further, to target the limited dis- ment in a manner consistent with the emergence semination funds most effectively, the Research of private markets. Many studiesare beginning to Committee decided that conferences supported document the difficulties, but they also find signs by RSB funds should, in general, be held in devel- of hope. In Poland, consistent policy signals about oping countries. An encouraging side effect of this privatization have begun to improve efficiency in decision is the inducement that holding confer- public enterprises. And in Russia, agricultural ences in developing countries provides for trans- reform is showing positive results, as regional lation and overseas publication of conference pro- price differences decline and integrated markets ceedings. To further efforts to reach Part II audi- emerge. However, research shows that morecom- ences, the Research Committee also decided to prehensive price reform must follow if the im- provide cofinancing for translation of important provements are to continue. research output. In Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union Aside from the analytical conclusions, one of environmental problemsandconservationof natu- the valuable results of many Bank-financed re- ral resources are pressing concerns. These coun- search ventures is the wealth of data obtained. tries have joined the international community in Very often the data set is unique and useful for raising questions about the most effective means testing a range of hypotheses. To broaden the to staunch pollution and about the most effective benefits of that information and make it more policies-whether regulation, tax, or market in- widely available, since fiscal 1992 research project terventions-to preserve natural resources with- managers have been explicitly required to clean, out reducing economic growth. The findings of catalog, and publicize all data that are collected recent research do not provide easy answers: stud- and to make them available to interested research- ies on openness to trade and on economic growth ers outside the Bank. Given the paucity of large found that both have been associated with in- data sets for most developing countries, access to creases in pollution. this information should greatly increase the po- On trade and debt issues the Bank has been tential for empirical research. Technology that fruitfully involved in investigating the potential allows a vast amount of data to be encoded onto benefits of regional, bilateral, and unilateral liberal- one or a few diskettes greatly simplifies dissemi- ization actions. Similarly cooperative efforts to re- nation while cutting its cost. duce the cost of debt are required to ensure creditor As in the past, the World Development Report participation, and the components of such a coop- remains one of the most powerful vehicles for erative plan were defined during this period. disseminating the knowledge and policy conclu- The Bank's research hasexerted a marked influ- sions derived from the Bank's research and its ence on its operations, as was described in the operations. It reflects the mature understanding Research Report for 1990. The impact of Bank ofa field and is designed to be accessible to a wide research on audiences outside the Bank, as de- audience. The Bank is seeking to achieve similar scribed in the fiscal 1991 Report, is in great part a results with a series of Policy Research Reports. function of the success of the related dissemina- The first of these is the study of The East Asian tion efforts. The Bank has worked across a number Miracle, which delves engagingly into the policies of fronts to increase those successes in the past two and institutions responsible for one of the most years. The results of the evaluation of the Bank's startling economic phenomena of the century. two economic journals, summarized in the fiscal Future reports will cover adjustment in Africa and 1991 Research Report, have been reflected in systems of old age security. Vi Future directions Regulation of some market activities will have an important bearing on efficiency, pricing, and tech- In an age in which information and ideas are seen nological change. Thus research will concentrate as increasingly pivotal, the Bank's success in pro- on mechanisms for increasing the scale and scope moting development will be inextricably linked of private sector operations, the efficiency of the with its ability to remain at the forefront of think- public sector, and the design of regulatory prac- ing on development. The environment in which tices that achieve desired outcomes at the lowest the Bank operates in the future may be a more cost. difficult one, and expectations as to what the Bank The fourth and final theme concerns the interna- must achieve are bound to be higher. Under these tional economy. With growing economic interde- circumstances the need to sustain intellectual ex- pendence and increased mobility of capital and cellence and support quality research will be more labor, this theme is also taking on renewed signifi- acute. cance. The emergence of trade regions and blocs, In line with Bank policy, the strategy for future the evolution of international trading arrange- research reaffirms many of the priorities of the ments, and environmental policy that calls for recent past, the main ones being poverty and regional or international coordination will be of human resources, environmental issues, and the special significance. Thus research on interna- transition in socialist economies. Where necessary tional economic matters remains integral to the these have been suitably reoriented in line with Bank's strategy. changing perceptions of development impera- Many aspects of development policy must tem- tives. The strategy underlying the research de- per the search for economic efficiency with other scribed in this section is defined by four principal social and political concerns. Thus many research and interconnected themes. questions are being addressed with a broad inter- The first relates to transition by socialist econo- disciplinary mix of analytical techniques. For in- mies from a system based on central planning to stance,theapproachestoprivatizationinthetran- one in which the market has a dominant role. sition economies, the forms of corporate gover- Policymakers need to see the conceptual rationale nance that are emerging and their efficacy, the for, and evidence on the practical feasibility of, state's capacity to regulate industry in a market proposed reforms to improve production effi- environment, the design of rural health care, and ciency, enterprise structure and governance, approaches to environmentally friendly resource household welfare, and the provision of social use all require the skillful integration of knowl- services. Research can inform the unfolding of this edge derived from political economics, sociology, processin Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, public health, environmental engineering, and and East Asia, but also in African countries with institutional economics. Similarly, many aspects poorly developed markets. of rural development and urbanization can be The second theme, one that has been receiving more fully grasped if economics joins forces with sustained attention for some years but remains other disciplines. elusive, is growth. The emergence of new growth The perception that working across several dis- theories has rekindled research interest and has ciplinaryfieldsbroadensunderstanding,increases drawn attention to human resource development, political feasibility, and promotes more accurate financial deepening, and public expenditure. and comprehensive policy recommendations has Growth, or the lack of it, and the changes intro- deepened among researchers in the Bank. More duced by socialist transition strongly affect envi- research proposals are couched in the language of ronment and the incidence of poverty. Hence political economy, and the Research Committee research in these two areas, which are of particular has encouraged this tendency so long as proposals interest to the Bank, will be closely tied to the work retain acceptable standards of rigor. If the find- on transition and growth. ings from such research are commensurate with The third theme, which intersects the two ear- the high expectations, it will invigorate research lier onesand also has a bearing on poverty allevia- in a number of fields that were previously inves- tion, concerns the respective roles of the public tigated only with the tools of economics. and private sectors. Although the scale of public sector activities needs to be reduced, public enter- prises will retain a sizable presence in the economy. vii Part I Building research capacity Building local research capacity is the most prom- networks that can support the exchange of views ising way to attain a fine-grained understanding throughworkshops,publication,andothermeans. of how an economy functions and what it needs to * Sponsoring conferences to bring together rid itself of debilitating inefficiencies. Through a scholars from developing countries and to accel- variety of channels, both direct and circuitous, erate research, raise standards, and reinforce dis- research can affect productivity and growth. Lo- semination efforts. cal research stimulates demand for data and can * Supporting collaborative research projects strengthen a country's ability to collect, store, with researchers and research institutes in devel- process, and disseminate economic statistics and oping countries. information. Many market-related activities ben- * Inviting scholars from around the world to efit fromanenhanced informationbase. Increased join ongoing research and to draw on the Bank's university-based research can improve the qual- substantial experience in the field of development ity of tertiary-level training and not only help to and its large fund of data. create a "marketplace" of ideas but also stimulate a Sponsoring training programs, especially the exchange of ideas. through the Economic Development Institute (EDI), The Bank uses a broad mix of vehicles to sup- to sharpen awareness among policymakers of how port the building of indigenous research institu- research can improve the quality of decisions. tions and the assembly of a critical mass of policy analysts, researchers, and administrators equipped Major regional initiatives with the skills needed in a modern economy. The contribution of research centers such as the Insti- Africa tute Nacional de Administracion in Mexico and Adding to Africa's research capacity is a matter the Korea Development Institute demonstrates of special urgency because efforts to improve the benefits to be gained from a strong base of economic prospects on the continent are handi- research in economics. Currently the Bank is de- capped by a limited understanding and a paucity voting about 10 percent of the Research Support of knowledge of the institutions and behaviors Budget directly to capacity building. Depending governing economic activity. But expanding the on results from these ongoing initiatives, more scale of research is no easy matter. The pool of can be done in this area, not just in developing the research manpower is small, unevenly distrib- institutional foundations but in conducting col- uted by country, and continuously depleted by laborative research. Among the approaches the emigration. From the outset, then, any capacity Bank uses to build research capacity are: building exercise had to concentrate on the basic * Financing organizations to spur domestic re- foundations of research activity and incorporate search and to serve as nodes for local research the necessary infrastructure of institutes, confer- 1 ences, journals, a system of peer review, and a ing regional professional associations, improving degree of consensus on the central issues deserv- the skills of African economists, and facilitating ing investigation. contacts with fellow professionals inside and out- side the region. AERC also supports national pro- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC). fessional associations and periodic gatherings of AERC was established in 1988 by six international economists to identify research priorities, debate and bilateral agencies and private foundations, policy issues, and distribute research findings and including the World Bank, to support economic is initiating support of economics training. The policy research by locally based professionals in consortium has two publications series: a research East and southern Africa. Over time, the consor- paperseriesfordisseminatingtheresultsofAERC- tium has acquired a reputation for effectively supported and externally reviewed research, and supporting economic research and other activities a special paper series of studies commissioned by to improve the technical skills of local profession- the AERC Advisory Committee or its Board. als, encouraging regional determination of re- AERC has provided support, albeit on a limited search priorities, strengthening national institutions scale, for training in the form of graduate thesis concerned with economic research and training, research grants in economics intended to revive and fostering closer ties between researchers and graduate study. Local institutions supported by policymakers (see box 1). The consortium, based in theconsortiumareencouraged to collaborate with Nairobi, has expanded its donor membership to each other to maximize returns from the limited eleven agencies, the allocation of grants across an facilities and teaching assets. A synthesis of the increasing number of francophone and anglophone findings of AERC-financed regional studies of the countries, and the types of grants it funds. education sector in Africa formed the basis for a During its first phase in 1988-90, AERC identi- strategy for graduate training in economics. fied two major themes for research by African In a second phase covering 1991-94, AERC is economists--balance of payments policy and do- concentrating on improving the quality of re- mestic financial management. AERC provided search, ensuring effective dissemination of re- forty-one thematic grants to local economists and search findings, and developing detailed opera- widened its coverage from East and southern tional plans for graduate training. By enabling Africa to central and West Africa. Biannual meet- African researchers to remain in contact with col- ings hosted by the consortium now constitute the leagues across the continent and overseas, AERC largest gatherings of professional economists in is also helping them to sharpen their technical Sub-Saharan Africa and have succeeded in reviv- skills and to remain at the forefront of theirprofes- Box 1 African Economic Research Consortium: A success story In an area in which results have often been meager and neutrality on policy issues and freedom in choice of disappointing, the African Economic Research Consor- methodology. tium (AERC) has accomplished wonders in research ca- Reviews of AERC's performance have been uniformly pacity building through a program of research stimula- laudatory. One reviewer calls AERC "a timely and pre- tion and support. cisely targeted response to the crisis confronting the AERC has promoted networking and cooperation economics profession in Africa. It [acts] with a minimum among researchers and helped anchor a system based on of bureaucracy and [makes] extremely effective use of a peer review and positive reinforcement that leads re- relatively small amount of resources." Another reviewer searchers from proposal stage to publication. Biannual saysAERCexpendituresaretremendouslycost-effective: workshops bring together researchers, observers, and "the stipends are minimal-just the marginal amount foreign experts to help generate a satisfactory final prod- needed to enable the recipients to pursue research in their uct. The interaction between African scholars and foreign spare and vacation time instead of pursuing other means experts is particularly stimulating and productive. Some of surviving on local salaries." And the results are star- of the leading researchers on African economies from tling: "1 have witnessed a spectacular improvement in the Europe and North America have been involved in these standardsreached by [AERC-supported] African research- activities. These meetings foster the development of net- ers," another commented. In fact, as one reviewer noted, works of vertical and horizontal interactions. Training many AERC members "are capable of providing excel- activities are undertaken to buttress the foundations for lent critiques of the analytical work of the Bank and other policy-oriented research. AERC's independence ensures international institutions." 2 sion. Much research is now a shared activity whose The primary goals of ACBI are to promote capac- lifeblood is continuous communication and col- ity building in policy analysis and development laborative endeavors. AERC is providing techni- management in Sub-Saharan Africa, to encourage cal support and information to researchers seek- the use of African researchers and managers in ing to revise their published output for submis- policy analysis, and to create networks of trained sion to local journals. It has started a collaborative professional and policy analysts. ACBF is de- master's program in economics and provides signed to play a catalytic role in capacity building awards for African students writing doctoral the- by generating and coordinating donor resources ses on their own economies. across Sub-Saharan Africa. It is planning a pilot AERC is off to a flying start but much remains to effort in long-term collaboration or twinning ar- be done. To maintain the center's momentum and rangements between institutions in Africa and in build on initiatives begun in phase !!, the Bank has donor countries. To avoid the disappointing out- agreed to fund a third phase for 1994-97. comes of past twinning arrangements involving OECD's development research and training insti- Francophone Africa Research Network on Industrial tutions in Africa, ACBF intends to widen the pool Policies (RESEAU). Francophone Africa's research of potential partners to include institutions such infrastructure is also in need of sustained atten- as national statistical offices, economic institutes, tion. To meet this need for capacity building, the and business schools. World Bank, together with the International De- velopment Research Centre and the U.S. Agency Middle East and North Africa for International Development (USAID), took up The Middle East and North Africa region has in the demanding task of building a research base in place a mature infrastructure of universities and francophone Africa with an emphasison develop- trained researchers. Yet the volume of economic ment of analytical skills. RESEAU began life in research has been modest, due in part to inad- 1989 as a center for research on industrial policy equate communication among research teams. In and protection, attached to the Pan-African Coun- addition, there is sensitivity in regional institu- cil for the Developmentof Social Science Research, tions to the short-term political implications of in Dakar. The network has brought together more independent research. Brain drain has also taken than 350 researchers and scholars from twenty- a toll. These factors have reduced the influence and five African countries, with advisors from univer- effectiveness of economists in the policy debate. sities in Belgium, Canada, and France, and has To remedy some of these weaknesses, the Bank consulted actively with AERC. Local researchers and other donors have sought to establish a are assisted through semiannual workshops and regionwide network of economic researchers to in- feedback from fellow researchers during annual crease interactionsamongresearchersand highlight general assemblies. Thirteen country studies have the importance of rigorous empirical work. The been initiated on the structure of protection and network can be a channel for funding research and incentives, and RESEAU has made important con- provide a respected forum for open discussion. tributions to sectoral knowledge. Local research- To start the process and begin transforming the ers affiliated with the network have begun to give initiative into a regionally based and regionally policy issues thesearching empirical analysis they managed institution, a first annual regional con- require, and standards for evaluating drafts and ference was held in June 1993, attended by more research proposals have been explicitly enunci- than eighty top economists from inside and out- ated and objectively applied. The first phase of the side the region. Papers were presented on topics project ended in June 1993. RESEAU has recently such as labor markets, economic integration, and approached the Bank for support for a second, the role of the state in economic growth. The expanded phase. conference established the Economic Research Forum, appointed a board of trustees, and se- African Capacity-Building Initiative (ACBI). The lected a managing director. The Forum, based in World Bank joined such international donors as Cairo and funded by the Bank, the UNDP, the the African Development Bank and the UN Devel- Arab Fund, the ECC, and the Ford Foundation, opment Programme and twenty-three African was founded with a network of approximately nations in financing the ACBI, following its estab- 150 Middle Eastern research fellows. lishment in 1991. The operating arm of ACBI is the The Bank has approved funding of a second African Capacity-Building Foundation (ACBF). phase to refine the network's structure and to 3 concentrate research efforts on some major themes, collectivity drawing strength and inspiration from using approaches similar to those that have proven each other's work. effective elsewhere. A related objective is to de- velop a transparent and independent process for Support for conferences to promote regional selecting themes. The second phase will culminate research in a regional conference in 1994 that will deal with the changing role of the state. The forum will also To reinforce the capacity building efforts with an sponsoraseriesofworkshopsontopicsofregionwide institutional focus, the Bank has begun to support relevance to promote development of skills. regional economic conferences with high visibil- ity, academic status, and strict quality standards. New independent states and China and Southeast Once they become an integral and valued part of Asia the research scene, such conferences can increase Encouraged by successful developments in Af- the attractiveness of research and the effective- rica and the positive reception of the Economic ness of networking. They also serveas an excellent Research Forum in the Middle East and North vehicle for dissemination. Africa region, the Bank is considering two other Research grants from the Bank lent support to initiatives: one in the new states of the former Soviet two regional conferences: the African Economic Union and one for China and Southeast Asia. Issues Conference and the Latin American meet- The Bank has begun working jointly with the ings of the Econometric Society. Eurasia Foundation to develop a project aimed at strengthening economic policy analysis and re- African Economic Issues Conference search in the newly independent states. The objec- The first African Economic Issues Conference, tive is to facilitate the economic transition, to held in Nairobi, Kenya, in 1990, represented the strengthen and reorient the human capital base to culmination of two years of effort by the Bank and the needs of a market-based system, and to trans- African researchers to improve collaborative re- fer some of the organizational capability currently search on Africa. The pathbreaking conference found mainly in Russia to the other independent brought together African scholars and policy- states. For these countries the problems are not a makers, Bank staff, and academics from Europe lack of universities or researchers, but rather an and the United States. It gave African economists inadequate knowledge of market economies and an opportunity to present and discuss profes- their mode of functioning. Undeveloped links sional papers on the macroeconomic concerns of between research and policy and among research- African economies and allowed World Bankecono- ers are a further complication. The starting point mists to disseminate their research findings on for the project, then, would be to set up mecha- Africa. nisms that would enable young researchers in The success of the first conference encouraged universities and institutes to gain experience with the Bank to support a second round witha $110,000 the research practices and methodologies used in grant from the Research Committee in June 1990. market economies. The principal goal would be to To maximize African involvement in conference increase the volume of research and associated preparation, the Western Africa Economic Asso- data gathering that feeds into national economic ciation (WAEA) and Eastern and Southern Africa management. Economics Association (ESAEA) organized the Southeast Asia is the fastest growing region in conference, with the Bank in a major supporting the world, and it lacks neither human nor physical role. Predictably, organizers had to wrestle with capital. It has also embraced research as an impor- problems of cofinancing and administration. The tant component of stable and rapid economic conference, which was held in Abidjan, C6te advance. But economic research in the region, d'Ivoire, in October1992, lived up to expectations: especially in China, remains fragmented, and in- participants were well satisfied, the papers were dividual researchers have yet to realize the full of good quality, and the discussions were fruitful. benefits of the technical skills they possess. The In addition to these intellectual benefits, the gains to be sought through capacity building are conference yielded lessonsabout organizationand in research design, standards for framing and institution building. The need for careful plan- testing hypotheses, and the nurturing of linkages ning and attention to logistical details was evi- between research and policymaking. Researchers dent. Another lesson was the importanceof ensur- also have yet to see themselves as an intellectual ing the attendance of decisionmakers so that re- 4 search findings could begin to influence policy. from 44 percent in ESD to 60 percent in FPD. The conference also confirmed the usefulness of Approximately 40 percent of the consultants in such a biannual event in focusing research and research are from Part II countries. Of the 250 or disseminating findings through the publication of more research projects conducted throughout the proceedings and other means, such as the publica- Bank in fiscal 1993, about 45-or roughly one in tion of selected articles in the Journal of African five-involve Part II nationals or institutions. Economies. However, as capacity building efforts take effect, Participants and organizers agreed that the con- the level of participation should increase. ference should become a regular feature, and plan- Some of the noteworthy collaborative research ning is under way for the next event, to be held in includes studies of the economic impact of ac- 1994. quired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Africa, income security for old age, indigenous Latin American meetings of the Econometric Society people and poverty in Latin America, industrial Economic research in Latin America is well- productivityinChina,enterprisebehaviorinCen- developed, is integrated with policy, and draws tral and Eastern Europe, and privatization of ag- on a rich base of training and skills, so the purpose ricultural support services. of these meetings differs from the more develop- Local researchershaveworkedcloselywith Bank mental focus of those mentioned above. The Econo- staff managing the projects and with consultants, metric Societyactsasan umbrella organization for who are usually leading scholars in the field. regional meetings, which bring together some of Regional research institutes have provided data the best work on applied economics. To support and substantive analytical input. These joint ven- this capacity building effort in Latin America, the tures have made possible a significant transfer of Bank's Research Committee approved $120,000 in skills, directly through training in fieldwork and 1990, to be disbursed evenly over four years. This empirical analysis, and indirectly through inter- is supplemented by $40,000 provided by the Latin action between Bank staff, foreign academics, and America and the Caribbean Regional Office. The local researchers. Because Bank research covers meetings not only serve to upgrade research but such a broad spectrum of topics, the transfer of also contribute significantly to the training of fu- research findings can expose those involved to a ture generations of Latin American economists. wide range of techniques for conceptualizing and Some 200 to 250 economists attend the meetings problem solving as well as to empirical methods from universities and research centers in Latin (see box 2). America, the United States, Canada, Europe, and Asia and from international institutions such as The World Bank Visiting Research Fellows Program the World Bank, United Nations, International The World Bank Visiting Research Fellows Pro- Monetary Fund, and Inter-American Develop- gram was initiated informally in 1988 to give Bank ment Bank. The meetings provide Latin American researchers an opportunity to work with senior researchers with an opportunity to interact with development researchers from outside the Bank. their peers from other regions and stimulate aca- This informal arrangement was formalized in July demic research, which in turn refreshes teaching. 1989. The program is intended to draw the best They also inform policymakers about the conse- development research scholars worldwide into quences of past actions and about the best course the Bank's research activities so that they can to pursue in the future. contribute to ongoing Bank research and itsfuture direction and enhance the effectiveness of Bank Support for collaborative research country operations. Fellows are expected to pro- duce publishable research papers on develop- The Bank fosters research activity through several ment methods, policies, or issues and to generate other channels. The use of consultants in Bank research externalities beyond the sponsoring unit research and economic and sector work has been by contributing to research efforts and economic increasing over the past few years, and local insti- work in the Bank's operational departments. Fel- tutes are actively involved in doing fieldwork and lows benefit from the Bank's substantial policy analysis. While the overall ratio of consultants to experience in the field of development and the higher-level staff in the Bank has varied from 19 availability of rich data sets across sectors and percent to 23 percent during fiscal 1991-93, the countries. Until 1991 most of the fellows were ratios in the research area for fiscal 1993 range drawn from Part I countries, but in an effort to 5 Box 2 Capacity building by training local researchers The Indonesian Resource Mobilization Study (IRMS), doing collaborative work on the IRMS. This practice of funded by the RSB, is an example of collaboration with funding faculty from Indonesia for in-residence training local researchersand development of local research poten- and research will continue. Negotiations are alsogoingon tial by way of a major empirically oriented project. The with the School of Public Health in Indonesia to develop study is seeking to estimate the impact of user fees on the a data center and a formal exchange program between the utilization of primary health services in Indonesia. A Indonesian institution and RAND and UCLA. major part of the research is being conducted by RAND Another study, on improving school effectiveness and and Lembaga Demografi, Faculty of Economics, Univer- efficiency in developing countries-and Jamaica, in par- sity of Indonesia, which, at the request of the government ticular-has entailed considerable Jamaican involvement of Indonesia, conducted the original IRMS. from its inception. The survey instruments used in the RAND has developed a multipronged strategy to en- project were reviewed by government officials in Jamaica sure substantial involvement of Indonesians in this study, and academics at the University of West Indies. A Jamai- the most important element of which is training activities can consultant was engaged as the principal collaborator, for Indonesian scholars, policymakers, and students. Short- and a small grants competition was organized to encour- term training of up to ten weeks will be provided at RAND age Jamaicans to use the data from this project for specific and UCLA for both provincial staff and other participants policy analyses. The Jamaican involvement is intended to in the health care system. Seminars and briefings for ensure that the policy prescriptions derived from this policymakers will be held in Jakarta, including a research project can be used as inputs in the education planning workshop to disseminate findings. RAND is currently process in Jamaica. In an important effort in capacity training four doctoral and two masters students from building, the project supervisors involved the Ministry of Indonesia using the methods and data from the IRMS. An Education and the Planning Institute of Jamaica in mak- exchange program has also been established with the ing decisions about the review of the small grants pro- faculty from the University of Indonesia, under which gram and subsequent awards. several faculty membershavealreadyspent timeat RAND enhance the capacity building aspect of this pro- on development policies and planning, project gram, the selection criteria were modified to draw analysis, and management for development. EDI younger, promising, but relatively unestablished continuously revises its training materials to re- development scholars into the program. This ef- flect changing needs and to provide institutions fort has been notably successful (see appendix anddevelopmentprofessionalswithtrainingtools table 8). The fiscal 1994 program continues to that embody the latest experience of the World reflect this emphasis: fellows have been nomi- Bank on national and sectoral policy issues. Dur- nated from such countries as Bangladesh, Colom- ing 1992, EDI broadened its program to provide a bia, Israel, Poland, and Russia. cross-sectoral perspective on development, high- So far more than forty people have participated in lighting issues related to poverty reduction, the program, twenty-two of them Part II country women's contributions to development, environ- nationals.Arecentevaluationoftheprogram,briefly mental sustainability, and the facilitation of pri- described in Part II of this report, suggests that it is vate sector initiatives. yielding substantial externalities, particularly Under the World Bank Graduate Scholarship through the close association of researchers from Program (WBGSP), EDI has recently initiated a developing countries withsomeof theBank'swork. program to bring staff members of central banks and ministries of finance and planning to Colum- Training bia University for a one-year master's degree pro- gram in economic management. After completing Other important research capacity building sup- their studies, the participants serve a six-month ported by the World Bank includes the activities internship at the Bank or the IMF. The second of EDI and training and research opportunities group of forty students began studies in June that the Bank provides in-house and through fel- 1993. Two similar programs for Sub-Saharan Af- lowships. rica jointly sponsored with the African Capacity- Building Foundation and the African Develop- Activities of the Economic Development Institute ment Bank will commence in 1994. One is a pro- EDI trains officials from the Bank's member gram for francophone Africa, to be administered countries using a variety of courses and seminars by Centre d'Etudes et de Recherche sur le 6 D6veloppement International (CERDI) in France research interests without interruption. It also and jointly sponsored with the African Capacity- offers mid-career officials an opportunity to ex- Building Foundation and the African Develop- pand their horizons and strengthen ties with oth- ment Bank. A similar program is being discussed ers working in the field. In 1992, applicants from for anglophone Africa, to be administered by Africa led the field (39.3 percent) followed by Asia McGill University in Canada. (33 percent) and Europe/Middle East and North In order to improve the quality of training, Africa (16.6 percent). In the distribution of fellow- clearly a capacity building role, EDI is increas- ship awards Europe/Middle East and North Af- ingly emphasizing efforts to promote the growth rica accounted for 33.4 percent and Africa and of national and subregional networks of training Asia for 22.2 percent each. Men made up 66.3 institutions. Thirteen networks are now function- percent of the fellows, and women made up 33.7 ing, and others are under development in Central percent-up from 9 percent in the first year of the and Eastern Europe. EDI is also investigating program. Two-thirds of the fellows came from ways to improve the links between its institution Part II countries. Although theprogramissmall in building activities and project-related training scope, it makes an important if modest contribu- carried out under Bank-assisted projects. It man- tion to research capacity building inboth host and ages the preparation and dissemination of book- originating countries. length manuscripts for use notonly incourses and EDI also manages the World Bank Graduate seminars but also to support the self-instruction of Scholarship Program. Funded by the government mid-level and senior officials. These materials, of Japan, WBGSP supports graduate study lead- which are also provided to EDI's partner training ing to a higher degree in a social science field institutes in developing countries, serve to raise related to development. the quality of their own programs. Among the The Margaret McNamara Memorial Fund ex- instructional materials are state-of-the-art manu- tends grants to women from developing countries als on the economic analysis of projects as well as who are studying in the United States in fields that on how the macroeconomic context influences the benefit women and children. Since 1983 the fund outcome of projects. An African authors program hasgiven grants to twenty-four women fromnine- is designed to satisfy the needs of policy analysts teen developing countries. Most of them have and officials and to do so in a way that will returned to pursue a career in their own countries. enhance the capacity of African scholars to pro- duce such material themselves. Summer interns and other research assistants Perhaps more influential from a long-term per- Fellowship programs spective because of the greater numbers involved The Bank also offers fellowships that finance istheBank'ssummeremploymentprogram,which formal education inarangeof disciplines through brings in university students to work in various the Robert McNamara Program, the World Bank departments of the Bank during the summer. Graduate Scholarship Program (WBGSP), and the Students of economics, finance, accounting, and Margaret McNamara Memorial Fund. The Robert statistics are most commonly sought, although McNamara Program was established in 1982 to training in law, agriculture, environment, infor- promote research on economic development. The mation systems, and the social sciences is also in program is managed by the Economic Develop- demand.Internsandresearchassistantsmusthave ment Institute. Ten fellowships of about $25,000 at least a master's degree, but a good number are each are awarded annually to nationals of World already enrolled in doctoral programs. In fiscal Bank member countries. The fellows must spend 1993,199summerassistantswereemployed through- their fellowship year at a host institution in a out the Bank, about 36 percent of them in depart- World Bank member country other than their ments involved in research. It is difficult to calculate countryof origin. Theexchangeof knowledgeand their relativecontribution to Bank research,but their experience from industrial to developing coun- exposure to the Bank's functions and its rich data tries and vice versa enriches both sides and may bases certainly indirectly contributes to capacity stimulatecontinuing joint interest in finding solu- building. Many of these students return to their tions to the problems of the developing world. home countries, some to continue teaching or re- The program serves young academics starting search that benefits from the practical experience on a research career by enabling them to pursue and professional contacts acquired at the Bank. 7 Future directions While the Bank can continue to provide guid- ance on policy through its own research, the com- The more we learn about economic development, plexity of the issues demands that more of the the clearer it becomes that the assimilation of research be done in the countries concerned. Re- improved analytical techniques and the skills to search capacity building is an integral part of the design well-conceived economic policies are Bank's mission to help countries acquire capital among the essential ingredients of economic suc- and skills and establish effective institutions and cess. The Bank has sought to assist its clients in intellectual input. These, in turn, can provide a each of these areas through its research and in- sound basis for the autonomy in policymaking creasingly by helping countries build indigenous needed to make economies function more effi- research capacity. This is a time-consuming exer- ciently. A strong research base encourages inde- cise but one that strongly complements the Bank's pendent inquiry at the frontiers of knowledge that research program. can lead to significant advancement. 8 Part II Review of the Bank's fiscal 1992-93 research program This part of the report reviews the status of the ues to break new ground and it is closely linked World Bank's research program and indicates with work on poverty. The relative roles of the areas in which work is in progress or was com- public and private sectors in provision of educa- pleted in fiscal 1992 and 1993. It also summarizes tion and health services is a leading topic on the the changes in the allocation to Bank research of research agenda. resources from all funding sources, provides an Research on infrastructure is motivated by a overview of current areas of emphasis, and de- recognition of its salience in the development scribes the results of the most recent evaluations process. Work done on the contribution of infra- of research activities. This is the first of a biennial structure to development has brought out sharply series of research reports. Abstracts and lists of the need for efficient planning, management, and reports and publications arising from Bank re- financing as well as the desirability of an adequate search projects continue to be distributed annu- volume of investment. World Development Report ally to the Board of Directors: the current versions 1994 will not only underscore infrastructure's pri- are available publicly as the 1992 and 1993 Ab- ority but also collect and synthesize the knowl- stracts of Current Studies. edge on this subject. During fiscal 1992-93 the Bank pursued a broad In the work being done on finance, the research research agenda reflecting both long-established momentum is unchanged although thefocusshifts priorities and issues that have acquired urgency periodically as issues are resolved and new chal- in more recent years. Poverty, human resources, lenges emerge. Thus the study of the banking infrastructure development, and finance belong crisisis windingdown while research on alternative to the former group. Transition of socialist econo- sources of financial resources is on the increase. mies, growth of the private sector, management of Among the newer priorities, the move by social- the environment, and the study of new interna- isteconomiesfromplantomarkethasinducedthe tional trading arrangements fall into the latter Bank to embark on some exciting research. Apart category. from the collection of data to support empirical Identifying ways of alleviating poverty has long analysis, the main emphasis is on privatization, the been at the core of the Bank's research program, delineation of property rights, and the functioning and this quest continues with undiminished vigor. of private firms; on labor markets and the provision Findings from this research, which have accumu- of social services; and on the numerous fiscal and lated steadily, are helping to focus the Bank's financial changes associated with transition. activities in this crucial area. Research on improv- Creating a viable private sector will be crucial to ing or sustaining the quality of human resources the success of the economies undergoing transi- through education and better health care contin- tion, but the need to rethink the scope of public 9 sector activity and the necessity of fostering a and allows the Bank's research program to re- dynamic private industry has broad applicability. spond quickly to changing events and priorities Research on this topic, which has expanded rap- by providing year-round professional review and idly, is rightly seen as buttressing the Bank's ef- funding of studies. The RSB also supports other forts at promoting growth of an efficient private activities, such as the annual Conference on De- sector through lending operations. velopment Economics, the Visiting Research Fel- The greatly heightened awareness of environ- lows Program, two research journals--The World mental fragility and the damage caused by indus- Bank Economic Reviewand The World Bank Research trialization and more intensive resource use has Observer-and regional research networks. increased recognition of the need for means to In the 1990s, as economic and sector work has achieve environmentally sustainable develop- increased, the relative share of researchand policy ment. Although research on environmental issues in the Bank's analytical work has slowly declined. is still at an early stage, it is already yielding Research in fiscal 1992-93 constituted about 14 interesting results and the flow of usable knowl- percent of the Bank's analytical work compared edge seems set to grow at a brisk pace. with over 16 percent in fiscal 1990-91; economic Although the prominence of trade, debt, and and sector work consumed 63 percent, and policy adjustment on the Bank's agenda has declined in work another 23 percent of the total (appendix recent years, new approaches to managing debt table l). Most of the research has historically taken and the changes in the international trading envi- place in the Development Economics Vice Presi- ronment have led to a change in the direction of dency. The separation of OSP from PRE in fiscal research. The growing interest in regional trade 1992 and the Bank reorganization in fiscal 1993 pacts, the reappraisal of international trade agree- resulted in further consolidation of research in ments under way for some years, and a height- DEC, increasing its share from 46 to 53 to 63 ened concern about the behavior of commodity percent from fiscal 1991 through fiscal 1993 (ap- prices have been responsible for the attention pendix tables 2A and B). The reorganization is also given to trade-related research in the recent past- reflected in the sharp drop in operational staff and the attention is likely to persist at least through time devoted to research, especially in the techni- the medium term. cal departments. Among the various areas of research, grouped Research funding and management in accordance with program objective categories, the shares of poverty and human resources, pri- The Bank was restructured in fiscal 1993 to better vate sector development, and the environment all achieve the overarching objective of poverty re- increased in fiscal 1992-93 (appendix tables 3A duction, to most effectively support environmen- and B). Meanwhile, as a number of major activities tally sustainable development, to enhance human have approached completion, research on adjust- resource investment, to encourage private sector ment, trade, and debt has diminished, although it growth and efficiency, and to accommodate the retains the largest share of Bank financing for Bank's expanded membership in Europe, Central research. Asia, and the former Soviet Union. The vice presi- Appendix tables 4A and B and 5A and B show dency for Sector and Operations Policy (OSP) was the distribution of external funding of research replaced by three thematic vice presidencies, which across program objectives and departments. Com- are responsible for providing policy guidance, parison of fiscal 1993 data with data for earlier operational support, and dissemination of "best years is made difficult by the change in the report- practice" advice to the regions. Responsibility for ing categories for those funds. Nonetheless, it is research was consolidated to a significant degree apparent that research on the environment con- in the Development Economics Vice Presidency, tinued to lead the field in fiscal 1992-93, account- unifying micro- and macroeconomic research ing for over 43 percent of all external funding by under a single management. fiscal 1993. This was followed by private sector The Bank's research program is funded from developmentandeconomicmanagement,with22 three sources-departmental budgets, the central percent and 16 percent respectively. A notable ResearchSupport Budget(RSB),andoutsideagen- development was the doubling in the volume of cies. The RSB improves the quality of Bank re- external funding between fiscal 1992 and fiscal search by subjecting proposals to expert review 1993 from $2.7 million to $5.5 million, with re- 10 sources for research on environmental issues and Overview of World Bank research projects the private sector rising threefold. Investigation of and priorities private sector development was spurred by changes taking place in Eastern Europe and the Outlined below are the broad themes that have former Soviet Union. Although the sectoral vice been pursued in research over the past two years. presidenciesabsorbed two-thirdsof external fund- This review is comprehensive: it encompasses ing, their share was down substantially from the projects supported by external, departmental, and 95 percent level of 1992, reflecting the shift of RSB funds and includes many of the independent research to DEC (appendix tables 5A and B). studies undertaken in the regional and sectoral The encouragement given to small-scale, short- departments, as well as those that constitute the term research ventures, which enable the Bank to basic framework for the research work programof cover a broader range of relevant analytic and DEC. Yet it is also selective. It highlights the empirical issues, has altered the composition of findings of work completed in this period so as to the RSB portfolio. The number of projects below provide a sample of output from topics at the core the $100,000 range tripled between fiscal 1991 and of the Bank's work, as well as to indicate progress fiscal 1993, while the expenditure on this category made in newer directions and on more urgent rose twofold to $2.5 million (figure 1). Appendix issues. Thus results from studies on poverty, hu- tables 6A and B and 7A and B provide a profile of man resources, infrastructure, and finance are RSB funding activities and trends. reviewed first, followed by a sample of research During fiscal 1992-93, 169 proposals were sub- on the transition, the private and public sectors, mitted for RSB funding, about 45 percent from and the environment. The review endsby describ- DECVP, 24 percent from OSP,and 31 percent from ing new directions in research on trade, interna- the regions and the IFC. Commensurate with the tional debt, and adjustment. increase in small proposals submitted, approval rates rose from 72 percent in 1991 to 86 percent in Poverty, distribution, and social welfare fiscal 1993. Funding rates similarly increased, from Because poverty alleviation is an overarching 40 percent of requests in fiscal 1991 to 53 percent objectiveoftheBank,povertyreductionstrategies in fiscal 1992 and finally to 66 percent in fiscal are intrinsic to operational activities. Questions 1993. The new disbursement of $4.45 million in about the most effective strategies and their costs fiscal 1993 was distributed 44 percent to DEC (51 have been addressed by recent Bank research on percent in fiscal 1992), 15 percent to the sectoral growth and poverty during adjustment; on house- vice presidencies (25 percent in fiscal 1992), and 41 hold, community, and public insurance strategies to percent to the regions and the IFC (24 percent in protect the poor against income instability; and on fiscal 1992). spending on poverty alleviation programs. Figure 1 Distribution of RSB approvals (by amount of funding requested) 1992 1993 More than More than Up to $300,000 10.5% Up to $ $100,000 36.8% $300,000 26.0% $100,000 56.1% $100,000 to $100,000 to $300000 2.7%$30,000 18.0% S300,O 5211 One of the confounding factors in the debate measures, the pooling of risks was incomplete about economic growth and poverty reduction is (particularly for the poor), and public interven- the paucity of data and reliable measures that are tions were not easily substituted when commu- comparable across countries. The International nity measures were ineffective.' In 1987, following Economics Department is compiling proxies for Peru's economic crisis, stabilization, and reces- baskets of goods consumed by the poor in differ- sion, average per capita consumption in Lima entcountries to determine the relative cost of basic dropped by half. Research found that families sustenance and to measure progress in increasing with higher education and with members over- consumption by the poorest. A project concluded in seas were able to adjust to the shocks. But some fiscal 1993 designed methods for using household- measures taken to protect consumption in the level data to assess alternative poverty alleviation short term, such as taking children out of school to programsandotherpolicies.' Adatabaseof poverty work and letting the most qualified members measures across countries for 1981-91 is being de- emigrate, can have large and prolonged costs. veloped, using uniform poverty measures and pur- And some private transfer networks weaken as chasing power parities to value currencies. The re- economic conditions worsen or are prolonged. suits to date are disturbing: nearly one of three These are some of the conditions under which peoplein the world lives in poverty, and the number public transfers were found to be most beneficial of poor has been growing with population.' A Public Economics Division, Policy Research The effects of adjustment programs on the liv- Department, analysis of alternative programs for ing standards of the poor were examined in a income security in old age found that most na- major two-phase research study that drew on tional systems include a redistributive category; observations from the long history of poverty some offer tax incentives for retirement savings, alleviation programs in India and Indonesia. The but few have a mandatory retirement savings results suggest that labor-intensive rural public component. The study found that most countries works projects have the potential to reach many of would gain by shifting some of the burden of old- the poorest, to protect them from income instabil- age security from public systems to mandatory ity, to develop valuable rural infrastructure, and retirement savings programs.' to limit the leakage of program benefits to the Tightening fiscal pressures have made careful nonpoor.1 Another project used counterfactual targeting of poverty alleviation measures more analyses of alternative adjustment packages to crucial. Some 250 researchers, policymakers, and confirm that favorable initial conditions, early practitioners involved in antipoverty programs in adjustment, credible policies, and access to exter- developing countries were brought together in a nal finance were important in protecting the poor conference jointly sponsored by DEC and OSP. during adjustment. Also important is how con- The twenty-one research papers presented pro- flicts about food pricing between agriculture and videguidance in evaluatingantipoverty programs, labor-intensive manufacturing sectors are re- identifying beneficiaries, and measuring the costs solved-and how bureaucratic and import-sub- and benefits of various targeted programs. For stituting agents resolve conflicts over trade policy.' example, a study of Hungary's social expendi- Some private and public income transfer sys- tures showed that the rich received almost twice tems seek to provide insuranceagainst income insta- the social income of the poorest, because of the bility and sustained income loss. A recent study effects of pensions. The program's protective ele- examined the effectiveness of private transfers to ment was found to result from increased outlays offset income fluctuations and how they varied by when the economy declined-not from improved income group and across developing countries. It targeting of expenditures.' produced a variety of empirical results concern- For many indigenous people of Latin America, ing private transfer behavior in a variety of coun- extreme poverty isa permanent condition. Astudy tries. Private transfers were found to have a large by the Latin America Technical Department found risk-mitigating role.'The synergy between public large and significant differentials between indig- health, education, and nutrition measures was enous populations and others in education, occu- explored inanotherresearch projectthatreviewed pation, and earnings. The study recommends a risk-alleviating strategies in rural communities. range of measures to reduce these differentials, Although the study uncovered a range of house- starting with concerted efforts to increase educa- hold and community consumption-smoothing tional enrollment.10 12 Human resources development continued use of quality indicators to assess pro- Human resource issues received particular at- gram success." tention in the Bank's research during 1992-93. The Social service expenditures and facilities were Development Economics Vice Presidency high- examined in a study that accounted for interac- lighted the importance of girls' education in dis- tions between different programs, drawing on a cussions with member countries, calling it the large Indonesian data set for the 1980s. The study highest-return investment many countries can found that proximity to school was important for make. The topic of World Development Report 1993 the enrollment of children of less-educated moth- is the link between health and development. And ers, that health clinics increased school attendance Bank research has investigated a range of issues of 10- to 18-year-old girls, and that the placement related to human resource development, the eco- of family planning clinics appears to respond to nomics of education, the efficiency and equity service demand." Regional differences in under- effects of public and private provision of educa- nutrition in Indonesia reflect regional differences tion and health services, female access and returns in income and food pricing; another project found to education and employment, and determinants that the poor benefit little from public health of fertility and contraceptive use. expenditures. Both sets of findings suggest that The results of a major interagency study of the policy needs to focus on increasing spending that economics of education were discussed at an in- benefits Indonesia's poor." temational conference in fiscal 1993. Conference It is difficult to see how to break a cycle of papers made clear that government subsidies for markedly lower earning potential for women basic education continue to yield important ben- which results from a lack of education that is itself efits but that sustaining public expenditures at a rational response to perceived low income op- higher levels of education in poorer countries portunities for women. Letting Girls Learn, a report wouldundermineequityandefficiency.Onestudy on a major research project examining these is- found that much latitude remains for improving sues, outlines approaches for raising girls' school- the cost-effectiveness of schooling policies and ing that take account of the greater social returns recommends increased efforts to inform parents and lesser private returns to educational invest- about educational options and policy. Another mentsin girls. The difficulty of the prescriptions is found that schooling costs remain a substantial that they require a broad range of changes to impediment to the enrollment of poor children. alleviate constraints, sometimes including more The conference also outlined current gaps in female teachers, new texts, scholarships, and im- knowledge and directions for future research." proved facilities. The advantage is that such pack- A cross-country study of the effectiveness of age approaches do what earlier efforts have not: public versus private provision of health and edu- they significantly increase female enrollment and cation services found that public expenditures for advancement." safe water, sanitation, and basic preventive health Research launched in fiscal 1992 using recent care consistently improved health indicators, while African household survey data showed that public funding of curative care tended to crowd women's education is the strongest predictor of out private services except when effectively di- fertility and contraceptive use inall fourteen coun- rected to the poor. The case for education was tries studied. The implications of this finding for mixed, suggesting that joint public-private fund- family planning policy are ambiguous, however, ing relieves resource constraints and appears to because current low levels of schooling make it result in more efficient provision of education difficult to predict whether large increases in fe- services.12 Research on education in several Latin male enrollment would be correlated with com- American countries uncovered wide variation in mensurate increases in contraceptive use and de- abilities between children in private and public clines in fertility. Similar methodological quanda- primary schools and high grade-repetition rates ries are raised for substantial increases in contra- and poor subject-matter comprehension in public ceptive services." schools. The findings of this major interdepart- A major interagency study of contraceptive use mental study support policies for early childhood suggests that policies to limit population growth developmentprograms,newteachingmethodsto must be tailored to a country's socioeconomic reduce variation among students, increases in development. Three countries in different stages expenditures per student at the primary level, and of the "fertility transition" demonstrated wide 13 variation in response of fertility to income, public erative program of irrigation research supported information on family planning, access to contra- by numerous multilateral, national, and nongov- ceptive services, infant and child mortality, and ernmental organizations led to the establishment education." A three-year study examined critical of an international technology research program labor market policies and strategies to minimize to investigate the modernization of irrigation and the social costs of wage and labor reforms by drainage systems, the sustainability of land and improving the competitive operation of labor water use, and the use of improved maintenance markets and increasing theefficiencyof publicand technology. The program is supported coopera- private spending on education and training." tively by the World Bank, the UNDP, and bilateral donors.24 Infrastructure and urban development Research on the performance of the housing As more activities are moved from the state to sector in developing countries has been con- the private sector, the state's role in infrastructure strained by a lack of data and criteria for compari- is being reassessed. The Bank's infrastructure re- son across countries. A project completed in fiscal search has analyzed returns to infrastructure in- 1992 developed a set of key indicators and initi- vestment, rules for allocating government expen- ated analysis of differences in performance in ditures between infrastructure investment and fifty-two countries. The subsequent analytical other activities, the extent to which the private project, completed in fiscal 1993, explains the role sector can take over responsibility in this sector, of domestic policy and regulation in housing sec- and the costs in industrial productivity when that tor development and provides abasis for focusing investment is insufficient. Water and sanitation national housing policies on the most problematic systems are the subject of research on willingness areas.2 to pay for services, private provision and contract- ing, and water conservation and management. Financial intermediation The broader contribution of infrastructure in- The banking crises of the 1980s exposed the vestments was estimated ina major research project fragility of financial systems; the accompanying drawing on data from more than 100 developing debt crisis focused attention on the need for alter- countries. This work found high marginal pro- native sources of foreign capital in developing ductivity effects of transport and telecommunica- countries. Studies have examined financial sys- tion systems over a ten-to-twenty-year period. tem crisis and reform, firm-level demand for capi- The effects appear to be much greater for rapidly tal inflows, and the development of national stock developing countries. Further research is being markets to expedite such flows. More narrowly undertaken on the channels for these effects." focused research has analyzed the Japanese Main Public and private water services are available Bank system, the interbank payment systems of to households in many developing countries. A industrial countries, and rural financial systems project investigating mixed public and private for lessons adaptable to the needs of developing water supply and the willingness to pay for differ- countries. ent levels of supply in six countries in Africa, Latin The bank crises of the 1980s were the catalyst for America, and Asia showed that user charges can work on combating financial distress and on op- result in higher-quality water services to consum- tions for bank restructuring. One study concluded ers while maintaining equitable distribution.21 that successful restructuring requires macroeco- Preliminary results of a study of regulatory and nomic stability, a sustainable fiscal balance, trans- institutional performance issues for private water parent accounting and legal practices that encour- and sanitation services suggest that various con- age competition and financial discipline, and ef- tractual relations with private service providers fective incentive and closure systems."6 Five years can improve the technical efficiency and quality of of research on the characteristics and status of services, sometimes at lower cost than public pro- commercial banks in developing countries culmi- vision."Accountingfor theeffectivenessofsimul- nated in the publication in fiscal 1992 of the two- taneous improvements in water and sanitation volume Banking Institutions in Developing Markets. systems in system planning could lead to im- Comprehensive interdepartmental research on provements in health at lower costs than with financial reform found that solvency of the finan- uncoordinated planning, particularly for specific cial sector required, above all else, health in the groups that could benefit from targeted water real sector. Also important were the banks' inter- supply and sanitation strategies.23 A large coop- nal systems and assets-the depth and breadth of 14 portfolios, reliability of information systems, staff policy, alleviation of the social costs of the transi- skills,and internal incentive systems. Strategies to tion, labor markets, agricultural and financial sec- strengthen financial institutions should be imple- tors, and the characteristics and behavior of suc- mented immediately, followed by steady removal cessful new private firms. of restrictions on interest rates and portfolio com- In fiscal 1992 the Bank intensified its work with position.27 statistical agencies, including several in the former Foreign investment is important to the develop- Soviet Union, and sponsored an international con- ment of financial system depth. A recent project ference on country debt data. By the end of fiscal found that the evolution of closed-end country 1993 IEC had produced estimates of per capita funds can help diversify risk and expand foreign income for many formerly socialist economies, investment in developing countries.28 The Bank's national accounts systems and conversion factors International Economics Department and the Ja- for translating data for these countries into inter- pan Center for International Finance investigated nationally comparable figures, and systematic ways of increasing the diversification of foreign reporting on external debt data.-" An assessment investment flowsand found that, ineachregionor of Chinese national accounts by the China and country, funds flow to targeted sectors or indus- Mongolia CountryDepartmentprovidesevidence tries. In Asia, for instance, the largest share of that the old accounting system underestimated Japanese foreign direct investment went to manu- GNP, particularly in rural areas. The project's facturing; in Latin America most went to the fi- findings on statistical biases of the old system, nancial sector. The study indicated varying deter- methods for adjusting transition data, and recom- minants of foreign investment by sector, suggest- mendations on methods of data collection and ing policy shifts needed to induce inflows.29 compilation for national statistical agencies will Domestic financial institutions in rural areas of guide a related project on the conversion of statis- developing countries havebeen particularly weak. tical systems in the countries of the former Soviet Management autonomy, mobilization of rural Union.3 deposits, and diversified lending throughout the A major interdisciplinary and interdepartmen- rural sector are the basic criteria for developing tal study of privatization in Eastern Europe found self-sustaining rural financial institutions, accord- that political transformation was swift, but that ing to a nine-country study by the Europe and eliminating central planning before an effective Central Asia/Middle East and North Africa Tech- system of private property rights was in place did nical Department." How financial market liberal- not produce the market signals and incentives ization affects small and medium-size firms is that direct efficient reallocation and production. crucial in countries in which such firms are the The study also analyzed alternative mechanisms most important employers and sources of com- to replace the former Council for Mutual Eco- petitive growth. In Ghana, liberalization did not nomic Assistance (CMEA), including a proposed increase small firms'access to creditbecause credit Eastern European Payments Union, and recom- analysis, loan approval, and supervision were mended caution in rejecting the payments union centralized to improve bank performance. In Af- proposal without formulating and accepting an- rican countries in which small firms' access is other option that will prevent bilateralism by de- limited, the study recommends that banks in- fault.m crease branch-level incentives and authority over Another studyof privatizationacrossa wide range lending for working capital and that government of countries of the former CMEA found that programs support investment loans to reach the privatization appears to work best immediately af- smaller firms.31 ter macroeconomic stabilization, that some form of employee ownership is a political prereq, ;site, and Transition of the formerly centrally planned that access to a wider group of trading 1 ,rtners is economies more helpful than reliance on intra-CMEA trade." As countries move from central planning to According to recently completed research of the market-based systems, the economic and institu- CofinancingDepartment, however, privatizationof tional structures underpinning economic plan- smallerfirmsin the fifteenstatesof theformerSoviet ning unravel. Major research efforts have focused Union has been impeded by the lack of a clear and on developing comprehensive and accurate data enforced legal system consistent with private prop- on the Bank's twenty-four new member countries erty rights, by policies that effectively create differ- for use in studies of appropriate macroeconomic ing prices for firm ownership (especially strong 15 incentives for employee ownership), and a dearth of ties, high external debt, nonconvertible curren- foreign participation.' cies, intersectoral pricing, and the need for social The problems for established or emerging pri- safety nets." Research in the Agricultural Policies vate firms are equally severe. Surveys of manufac- Division, Agriculture and Natural Resources De- turing firms in the former Czechoslovakia, in partment (AGRAP), on food market integration in Hungary, and in Poland found difficult access to Russia found a significant reduction in price dis- credit, poor economic conditions generally, and persion and substantial increases in food volumes large differences in how firms were able to cope marketed, but remaining variations in regional with competition from imports and state enter- prices indicate the need for greater price liberal- prises.17 ization, especially at the local level." Research on Decentralizing Russia's fiscal system has increasing competition in food processing and emerged as a critical issue in the development of marketing in other countries of the former Soviet a cohesive federal government inRussia.Research Union also found evidence of continuing local- completed in fiscal 1993 found that choices for tax level impediments to efficient adjustment. sharing and assignment cannot be sustained with- Ways to develop sound financial regulations and out specific assignment of expenditure responsi- institutions were evaluated in a study of banking bility to federal and local levels. The project rec- in transitional economies. The study emphasized ommends federal responsibility for natural- the obstacles to longer-run improvement posed resource-based revenues and points out areas in by maintaining strategies that were intended for which issues of equity and fiscal balance will be the short-term transition, especially measures af- particularly critical.' Credit and payments sys- fecting the ownership structure and financial sta- tens for trade among countries of the former tus of the former state enterprises." The Bank Soviet Union were developed in a comprehensive cosponsored a conference in Tel Aviv in fiscal analysis of the status and structure of FSU trade. 1993 on financial aspects of the transition, which The systems include transformation of quantita- reviewed the lessons from research on capital tive restrictions into import tariffs and export markets, monetary policy, exchange rates, and taxes, and adoption of license and quota auctions inflation." in cases where voluntary export restraints are in Some countries are showing signs that reforms place. The transitional tariffs, taxes, and auction are beginning to bite. An in-depth study of Polish earnings temporarily generate government rev- state-owned enterprises painted a bleak picture in enue during a period in which fiscal systems are early 1991. High nominal interest rates, adverse also being restructured. Mechanisms for mon- selection in credit, and firm-level in-entives that etary coordination among central banks are out- had kept real wages low and enterF ise employ- lined, allowing quick multilateral settlement ment too high had led to a collapse c. profits and among member states. Further analysis of the FSU thus to dwindling taxes, a growing deficit, and the move toward world energy prices produced esti- risk of a resurgence in inflation.' But by mid-1992 mates of the resulting reduction in the implicit hard budget constraints, tight credit, and trade subsidy of oil-importing by oil-exporting states liberalization had forced cuts in employment, and the broaderecononiceffectsof thesechanges.9 changes in product mix, efficiency in input use, It is generally agreed that income equality was and lower costs. The research concluded that con- high and unemployment low in the formerly so- sistent policies and anticipated privatization led cialist economies. Several research projects are to effective management." These and a broad examining the effectiveness of social programs and range of transi tional issues are being addressed in labor market adjustments during the transition. A further research supported cooperativelyby many study drawing on a rich database in Slovenia has departments within the Bank. found that the young and well educated have fared best during the transition and that unem- Private sector development and public sector ployment benefits are negatively associated with management reemployment, indicating just one of the tradeoffs The comprehensive reform under way in many in formulating policies both to promote effective formerly socialist countries raises a multitude of adjustment and to protect social welfare.' questions about promoting economic activity by An interagency project on the reform of agricul- the private sector and reforming the public sector. ture addressed a range of problems facing Most of the studies on the transition cited earlier policymakers: propertyrights, institutional rigidi- address these problems. Other work in fiscal 1992 16 and 1993 on these issues focused on regulatory Japan, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea. The capacity, financial development, technology research found that the programs were useful policy, small firms, and management of public only in a few cases in which markets had been in programs. effect closed to small firms-suggesting that at- The most basic way to increase private sector tempts at determining the difficulty of access economic activity is to sell government-owned should precede adoption of such programs.52 firms. An analysis of the economic and welfare effects of the privatization of public enterprises in Economic management twelve industries in Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, and Although macroeconomic policy has received the United Kingdom found that the sales usually less direct attention as the operational emphasis improved the government's fiscal situation and on structural adjustment has diminished, the de- increased productivity, profits, and prices. Thus bate about optimal economic strategies and insti- sometimes consumers gained as a result of com- tutions continues. Research has examined opti- petitive pressures, and sometimes they lost as mal fiscal policies, options for exchange rate man- prices were raised. The study also suggests that agement, and government influence on economic the costs to employees of employment reductions growth. were usually partly offset by compensatory pay- The spectacular rate of growth in several East ments or by equity shares in divested firms.' Asian economies has generated great interest in Many countries have so many state enterprises the role of government policy. A comprehensive that simultaneous privatization is not feasible. In evaluationof thesuccessof eight East A! ancoun- some cases, in the interim, state holding compa- tries-supported by the Ministry of F aance of nieshavemanagedthestate-ownedfirms.Astudy Japan and carried out by PRD, EAP, EDI, and of countries'experience with this approach showed IEC-was completed in fiscal 1993. The study that what determines its success is the internal measured the countries' patterns of growth and structure of the company, the government's com- structural change, described and assessed the in- mitment to the approach, and the viability of fluence of strategic actions of their governments, economic policy." and evaluated the replicability of successful pat- The importance of the government's role is also terns of intervention. It found that economic noted in a study exploring the factors affecting growth from 1960 to 1990 was high and sustained, adoption of the most profitable production tech- its fruits were shared relatively equitably, and niques. If productivity increases are to be achieved, government interventions were crucial in these the study found, government action is critical to outcomes. The research highlights, however, that promote investment and trade with high-technol- the prerequisites for success are so rigorous and ogy multinational firms and to create and main- the risks of failure so great that policymakers tain appropriate infrastructure.' seeking to follow the East Asian path should focus Research investigating the effects of intellectual first on getting the basics right and only then property rights protection on technology transfer consider selecting carefully among proven gov- through U.S. foreign direct investment found that ernment interventions.5 the strength or weakness of a country's system of The experience of most developing countries intellectual protection seems to have a substantial during the 1970s and 1980s was markedly differ- effect on the kinds of technology transferred by ent than that of the Asian "dragons." Analysis of many U.S. firms to that country. This holds espe- responses to external shocks in a group of eigh- cially for high-technology industries. The level of teen developing countries showed that those that protection for intellectual property also seems to weathered the shocks most successfully followed influence thecomposition and extentof U.S. direct flexible but relatively stable monetary, fiscal, and investment in the country, although the sizeof the exchange rate policies; monitored the term and effects varies greatly with the type of industry." maturity of debt relative to returnson investment; Considerable evidence indicates that labor in- and used import controls rarely and briefly.' tensity and participation by the poor is greatest in The findings of another project on the growth small and medium-size firms, yet these firms have effects of a broad set of national policies echo, in been hampered by restricted access to capital and somerespects, thefindingsof TheEast AsianMiracle information. A recent study examined the effec- study on a cross-regional basis: well-developed tiveness of financial, technical, and marketing financial systems, infrastructure, and foreign in- support programs for smaller firms in Colombia, vestment channels and nearly universal educa- 17 tion are prerequisites for long-run growth. But the Environment and natural resources study also found that they are not enough: nega- Policy dialogue and the lending program of the tive shocks can overwhelm even the best growth Bank have been increasingly concerned with the policies, and so high growth rates are seldom sustainability of economic development, the con- found for sustained periods in any specific devel- servation of natural resources, and the cost-effec- oping country.' The large databases from this tive reduction of pollution. One visible response project and a related IEC study on sources of to this concern was the creation of the Environ- productivity growth in eighty-five countries are mentally Sustainable Development Vice Presi- being prepared for public distribution on com- dency in the fiscal 1993 reorganizatioi. A research puter diskettes.5' project on environmental policy in international, The effects of fiscal policyon growth and equity regional, and domestic arenas has emerged. have been explored by several research projects Several major reports on environmentally sus- during this period. Different international fiscal tainable development were produced in fiscal systems are being examined in a study of tax and 1992 and 1993. World Development Report 1992 expenditure incidence and allocative efficiency in explored the links between economic develop- developing countries. Its initial findings provide ment and the environment. It emphasized that little support for the claim that tax competition current and accelerated rates of development are among jurisdictions will result in allocative effi- sustainable and can be consistent with improving ciencyingovernmenttaxandexpenditurepoliciesY environmental conditions if supported by appro- The effects of fiscal incentives on technology priate policy, program, and institutional shifts. As adoption and foreign direct investment were ex- part of its role in the Global Environment Facility amined in three studies using a range of tech- (GEF),theBankconductsresearchonglobalwarm- niques. Tax incentives to encourage research and ing and other environmental issues with interna- development and adoption of technically ad- tional implications. Research results and a com- vanced machinery were found to influence some prehensive framework for global warming issues investment decisions, but the broader tax, regula- were presented at a Bank seminar in May 1992 and tory, and infrastructure environment was far more at the United Nations Conference on Environ- important in determining foreign and domestic ment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in investment.' A similarly weak effect on foreign June 1992. The Bank's three-volume Environmen- investment was found in a study of investment in tal Assessment Sourcebook provides practical guid- fifty developing countries.' A study of corporate ance for designing environmentally sustainable incometaxesinPakistanconcludedthatcorporate projects. A comprehensive review of the Bank's tax exemptions, holidays, and credits were costly in environmental activities and research each year is terms of tax revenue forgone and ineffective in contained in the Annual Report on the Environment. stimulating investment. Equivalent spending on Research on natural resources and the environ- infrastructure did influence investment and resulted ment beyond that to be found in the above sources in offsetting increases in corporate tax revenues.60 has focused on data and analytic tools, pollution The importance of macroeconomic policy is also determinants and regulations, the environmental emphasized in the findings of a study on parallel impact of energy subsidies and policies, land deg- exchange rate markets which confirm that ex- radation and biodiversity, and agricultural ser- change rate premiums and the perceived over- vices and technology policies. The regional stud- valuation of the currency grow with budget defi- ies staff in the Africa Technical Department con- cits. Dual exchange rate systems, while doing little ducted eight studies addressing deforestation, land to control capital flight, have helped smooth the degradation, threats to wildlife, environmental inflationary impact of maxi-devaluations." A data, and migratory processes. Research findings framework for managing exchange rate bands of a few of the projects are mentioned briefly was developed in research completed in fiscal below. 1993.'2 When direct setting of exchange rates is Most developing countries have little reliable abandoned, exchange rate auctions can be used to information about sources or levels of pollution. eliminate parallel currency markets. A study of The Industrial Pollution Projections System is pro- the institutional and economic features of these ducing comprehensive profiles of industrial pol- auctions identified their requirements and re- lution for countries, regions, or specific proposed wards.61 projects. A system prototype has produced pre- 18 liminary estimates of the intensity of annual toxic stages of economic growth rather than policy: emissions across a range of developing coun- from organic water pollution to airborne emis- tries." Bank research is also developing a frame- sions and, finally, to high levels of toxic and carci- workthatintegratesenvironmentalaccountswith nogenic pollutants. A project on the effects of standard economic accounting. The eighteen pa- plant ownership on compliance with pollution pers in the volume Toward Improved Accounting for regulations found surprisingly little variation in the Environment apply the integrated accounting abatement levels among private, local, multina- framework as well as work on mineral deprecia- tional, and public firms. The study, drawing on tion, valuation methods, and other conceptual surveysinBangladesh,India,Indonesia,andThai- approaches to environmental accounting." land, confirmed that abatement was a function of Industrial pollution and strategies to reduce income and visibility: compliance was higher in pollution are being examined in several studies in high-income localities and countries and in firms the Policy Research Department. Initial findings with clearlydistinguishableemissions." A related show the difficulties policymakers face in analyz- study on costs of abatement technology provides ing tradeoffs between options and objectives and stark evidence on the differences in costs and in achieving significant reductions in pollution. effectsofuniformcompliancerequirementsacross There have been increasing pressures to adopt products and sectors and raises serious policy international standards for environmental regu- questions for regulators.' Preliminary results of lation, for instance, and to use trade policy to an ongoing study for Poland suggest that price- achieve environmental goals. One project on the based incentives are likely to be more effective international aspects of environmental policy and than the extensive system of regulation and pollu- trade policy instruments for reducing pollution tion charges already in place.7 But surveys of culminated in a conference in November 1991. clean-technology exporters reveal that environ- The critical conclusion of the study: trade mea- mental regulations in developing countries are sures are not the optimal means to address envi- the main factors creating demand for their prod- ronmental externalities." ucts and services.' But the message from research on the interac- A study completed in fiscal 1993 on how green- tions between trade and economic and environ- house gas emissions, government revenues, and mental goals is more complex. A study analyzing consumer welfare are influenced by energy subsi- the effects of further liberalization of trade in dies found that lower subsidies would produce Ghana found that resulting increases in areas positive revenue effects, but that short-term ad- under cultivation would generate greater costs in justment costs would be substantial in some sec- land degradation and declines in future agricul- tors. The project suggests that external assistance tural productivity than gains in traditional mea- from OECD countries to offset the adjustment sures of efficiency.7 Similarly, a cross-country costs in developing countries would result in study found that more open economies experi- greater reductions in global gas emissions than ence larger increases in pollution simply because equivalent-cost increasesin domesticcarbon taxes of output growth. The research had explored an in OECD countries? Another study found that opposite premise, that countries more closed to the net effects of lower subsidies were beneficial: foreign trade and investment would produce lo- interfuel substitution was possible, and the infla- cally products associated with higher levels of tion-increasing effect of higher energy prices was toxic emissions and generate higher pollution. more than offsetby the inflation-reducingeffect of Nonetheless, a companion study found that open lower fiscal deficits." But preliminary findingson economies are likely to benefit from the diffusion interfuel substitution in forty-five urban areas of energy-efficient equipment from more regu- show disappointing results for programs to move lated OECD countries, even when they do not poorconsumers from wood-based fuels. Although themselves have high environmental standards government policy strongly influences energy for production."8 choice in other areas, the availability of cheap Findings on determinants of pollution and ef- fuelwood has a stronger influence.' fectivedomestic policy for pollution reduction are A major multinational effort underlies the Bank's similarly mixed. One study completed in fiscal research project on integrated land management 1993 suggests a pattern of change in pollution in Africa, completed in 1993. A study of Kenya's characteristics that appears to be determined by Machakos district investigated the factors that 19 produced a doubling in per capita agricultural demand. Caloric consumption is near satisfactory outputdespiteafivefoldincreaseinpopulationin levels for most consumers in developing coun- an area in which land degradation had been a tries, and diets are diversifying into meat, veg- concern fifty years earlier. A combination of mar- etables, and fruits. In addition, the excessive con- ket growth and new inputs, technologies, and sumption and imports of grains in the FSU and products,aswellaseffectivechannelsfornational Central and Eastern European countries will end and international information and commerce, cre- with the elimination of subsidies and, initially, ated support for effective land management. In with income declines during the transition. What Ethiopia, however, political, economic, and social is less encouraging is that the picture varies within turmoil has prevented investments to increase the and across countries. The poorest still lack ad- carryingcapacityof thehighlands,and stagnation equate access to food in most developing coun- and erosion have resulted."6 A study of successful tries. And in African countries caloric consump- long-term, high-productivity rainfed agriculture tion held almost constant over the past three de- in developing countries suggests determinants of cades; increased hunger and malnutrition in Af- success similar to those in Kenya.' rica is predicted." Issues for African dryland management differ: The conceptual aftermath of the "green revolu- lack of knowledge about ecological and economic tion" hasbeen a recognition of the immense influ- carrying capacity of the rangelands, diversity of enceoftechnologicaldevelopmentininternational scale, and volatility in climatic factors all complicate agriculture and a continuing search for policies to the analysis of sustainable policies. A study sup- narrow the gap in productivity between develop- ported by ODI, ODA, and the Government of Nor- ing and industrial countries. A major interna- way is modeling the effects of range management tional study supported by six agencies seeks to strategies; preliminary findings show that some identify optimal agricultural technology in devel- strategies provide incentives to increase herd size." oping countries and the role that Bank operations Agricultural research has focused on govern- can play in technology transfer. The initial focus ment and private provision of agricultural ser- has been on the least successful areas: the Sub- vices. A project supported by the French Foreign Saharan livestocksectorand thearid and semiarid Ministry, CIRAD (France), DANIDA (Denmark), regionsof thesubtropics. Preliminary resultshigh- and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation light theextreme variance in theeffectsof the most in Agriculture finds that many of the functions of common technologies and the resulting difficulty agricultural support services now provided in in making appropriate choices.' most developing countries by government agen- High-technology approaches are not always cies can be taken up by the private sector or by effective or desirable, however. Measures of the farmers associations. In many instances, govern- economic costs of pesticide resistance that ac- ments should focus on their regulatory functions counted for the production and trade impacts of while facilitating a transfer of service functions to pesticide subsidies showed that integrated pest nongovernmental entities. However, some types management, which uses natural predators, shift- of agricultural services clearly require public sec- ing planting patterns, and limited pesticides, tor delivery and, when the clientele is predomi- would reduce external costs while maintaining nantly poor and very small farmers, the transition yields.' An interagency project completed in fis- to nongovernmental service organizations may cal 1993 on impediments to agricultural produc- require a longer period.' Another ongoing study tivity growth found a need for national and inter- on alleviating high production risks and thus national investment in agricultural research on income variability for poorer households sug- new technologies, intellectual property manage- gests that governments may utilize market incen- ment, and agricultural technology transfer sys- tives in thedesign of insurance programs-so that tems-and for institutions to oversee these sys- poor people, who have few effective mechanisms tems. The findings highlight the necessary lag for coping with the risks of drought, can buy the between investment and returns in agricultural level of insurance that suits their needs through a research.' program that is practically self-financing." A recently completed study of world food pro- Debt, adjustment, and trade duction predicts an encouraging future for cereal During the late 1980s a number of developing consumers: continued growth in supply, low countries undertook comprehensive reforms as prices, and a decline in the rate of growth of part of structural adjustment lending programs, 20 with varying degrees of success. A study of eight scenarios are considered. This expectation results adjusting countries examined the political factors from the voluntary nature of the creditors' partici- influencing reform of a range of macroeconomic pation and was empirically confirmed in the first policies. Factors contributing to successful adjust- five Brady operations. Furthermore, the financial ment include starting the program soon after an costs of these operations are incurred in the early election, assigning responsibility for reform to a stages because of the countries' inability to cred- politically independent agency, and packaging ibly commit to pay later when they may be over- reform measures to spread the costs across politi- indebted. Two key conditions were identified for cal constituencies. Cross-country analysis of po- minimization of the financial costs of DDSR: (1) a litical regimes and inflation revealed that, for requirement of comprehensive creditor participa- middle-income countries, inflation is not system- tion, achieved through a concerted bargaining atically higher in democratic regimes than in au- framework, and (2) the offering of an array of thoritarian regimes, although for Latin American options for creditors to choose from. The first countries that have switched between authoritar- eliminates the incentive of each creditor to hold to ian and democratic governments, inflation does its claims to benefit from the subsequent rise in appear to be systematically higher during the price and leads to costs lower than under piece- democratic phases and in the years around the meal, open market operations. The second adds transition.' efficiency to the exchange by catering to the spe- The extent and success of adjustment programs cific characteristics of creditors, who would then in twenty-nine countries in Sub-Saharan Africa require lower compensation as a result. The use of during 1987-90 were comprehensively analyzed comprehensive menus serve both purposes at in a project that found that half the countries once and, in the Brady operations examined, led to showed a positive turnaround in GDP growth in implicitbuybackpricessignificantlylowerthanwhat 1987-91 and half did not. Increasesin growth rates would have been obtained in the open market. are clearly associated with improvements in Research on rent sharing and license prices un- macroeconomic policies. The project suggests that der the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA) has strong adjustment programs are essential for placing policy implications because imperfect competi- Sub-Saharan Africa on a sustainable long-term tion would affect the welfare impacts of the quo- growth path, but they alone cannot offset continu- tas. For U.S. apparel imports preliminary findings ing problems in public enterprise performance, suggest that the rents generated by the quotas are exchange rate rigidities, and low levels of invest- shared fairly equallybetween thedevelopingcoun- ment and savings.' try exporters and U.S. importers, contrary to the During the late 1980s developing countries car- assumption that they are fully captured by the ried out commercial debt and debt service reduc- exporters. The study also finds that using Hong tion (DDSR)operations as part of their response to Kong license prices to impute license prices for the debt crisis. Guidelines were developed in IEC other MFA-constrained countries overestimates to summarize the extent of debt reduction result- license prices. This indicates that the welfare costs ing from these usually complex operations as a of the MFA to developing countries are substan- singlemeasure, termed the "debtreductionequiva- tially higher than previously estimated." lent." Similarly, stripped" prices reflecting the Research on industrial competition, productiv- value of the corresponding debt outstanding ity, and trade regimes in six developing countries equivalent-and hence comparable to pre-opera- tests the conventional wisdom that protectionist tion market prices as indicators of country credit- trade regimes reduce manufacturing productiv- worthiness-were obtained by adjusting market ity. The most important finding is that trade liber- prices. Research found that DDSR was the right alization can lead to significant intraindustry im- policy approach to a perceived solvency problem, provements in factor productivity and pricing but that the reduction of the debt overhang would behavior, but can reduce economies of scale." not guarantee a significant development effect Interest in regional trading blocs is rising as the without a sound policy framework and a signifi- multilateral system remains stalemated. One re- cant reduction in uncertainty. search project that examined regional integration From a financial point of view, despite the deep agreements concluded that U.S. support for re- discounts at which these operations usually take gional blocs is likely to promote them as a major place, financial savings can be expected to be zero component of the international trading system, at best when realistic counterfactual debt service that developing countries with liberal trade re- 21 gimes will benefit most from access to industrial ber of paying subscribers and tripling compli- markets, but that small countries without strategic mentary subscriptions in developing countries. trading advantages from which to negotiate will be To encourage researchers to give thought at the leftoutandwillhavethemosttoloseifmultilateralism start of the project cycle to the dissemination of declines." Preliminary results of a study of specific findings, the Research Committee requires that tradingarrangementssuggest thata freetradeagree- each proposal present detailed dissemination ment between Latin American countries and the plans. Manyprojectsnow explicitly allocate funds United States, for instance, would provide little for seminars. Further, to target the limited dis- benefit to most of the Latin countries because of the semination funds most effectively, the Research already low barriers that they face." Committee decided that conferences supported Developing countries depend heavily on for- by RSB funds should, in general, be held in devel- eign exchange earnings from primary commodi- oping countries. ties and so rely on IEC models for projecting An encouraging side effect of holding confer- commodity supply and prices and the effects of encesin developing countries is the inducement it trade interventions. IEC hasalso developed econo- provides for translation and overseas publication metric models for trade in manufactures. The of conference proceedings. To further efforts to models suggest that simultaneous expansion of reach Part II audiences the Research Committee manufactures exports in all developing countries has also decided to provide cofinancing for trans- could benefit them because they are net importers lation of important research output. of manufactures and, as manufactures exports Aside from the findings, one of the valuable expand, the prices would decline." results of many Bank-financed research ventures Research has found that, contrary to popular is the wealth of data obtained. Very often the data belief, most commodity prices do not follow a set is unique and useful for testing a range of random walk but have a highly nonlinear relation hypotheses. To broaden the benefits of that infor- to stocks of the commodity. When stocks fall to mation and make it more widely available, re- low levels, the ability to dampen price movements search project managers have been explicitly re- is sharply reduced. Preliminary results show that quired since fiscal 1992 to clean and catalog all the real interest rate has the strongest influence on data that are collected and to make them available commodity prices, suggesting that more empha- to interested researchers outside the Bank. Given sis be put on the use of financial market instru- the paucity of large data sets for most developing ments for managing commodity price risk.13 countries, access to this informationshould greatly increase the potential for empirical research. Tech- Dissemination of Bank research nology that allows a vast amount of data to be encoded onto one or a few diskettes greatly sim- The Bank's research has exerted a marked influ- plifies dissemination while cutting its cost. ence on its operations, as was described in the As in the past, the World Development Report Research Report for 1990. The research has also remains one of the most powerful vehicles for had a strong impact on audiences outside the disseminating the knowledge and policy conclu- Bank who attach value to work on developing sions derived from the Bank's research as well as countries with a pronounced policy orientation, operations. It reflects the mature understanding an aspect described in the fiscal 1991 Report. Re- of a field and it is presented so as to be accessible search has been disseminated through a host of toa wideaudience.TheBankisseeking to achieve channels, the most notable being publications, similar results with a series of Policy Research seminars, and conferences. The multiplier effect Reports. The first of these is a study of The East from dissemination is fully recognized and the Asian Miracle, which delves engagingly into the Bank has worked ceaselessly at improving its policies and institutions responsible for one of the practice in this regard. Two years ago, the Bank most startling economic phenomena of the cen- commissioned an evaluation of its two economic tury. Future reports will cover adjustment in Af- journals to ascertain the views of the readership. rica and systems of old age security. The information garnered has been put to good use in the selection of articles and the mode of Evaluations of World Bank research programs presentation. More recently, a marketing drive was launched to enlarge the readership. This The Bank's research program is evaluated in several proved to be highly successful, doubling the num- ways: through ex ante review of project proposals, 22 peerreviewofresearchpapersandbookssubmitted certain instances, the availability of published for publication, and evaluation of different aspects results was subject to considerable delay. of the research program managed by the Research Evaluators recognized the great potential of the Advisory Staff. The ex post evaluation activities comparative format, but they also underlined the undertaken centrally in fiscal 1992 and 1993 have heavy managerial burden, the need for careful focused on the large multicountry comparative stud- and comprehensive planning, and intensive over- ies, the last of which was concluded in fiscal 1993, sight of the country studies throughout the pro- and the Visiting Research Fellows Program, which cess. The evaluators also cited the intellectually entered its fifth year in fiscal 1993. The findings of the challenging and time-intensive process needed to evaluations are summarized below. produce findings that accurately embody thecoun- try cases while distilling lessons relevant for other The Comparative Studies Program times and places. The Comparative Studies Research Series, The evaluation yielded lessons that are relevant funded by the Research Support Budget, was for other exercises of this nature: introduced in 1984 as an avenue for analysis of * Research proposals and the review process crucial policy issues in development economics should give attention to methodology but not at on a multicountry empirical basis. The studies the cost of other aspects of the research. selected were "The Political Economy of Poverty, * Analysts and commentators should be chosen Equity, and Growth," "A Comparative Study of to reflect a fairly broad spectrum of thinking on an thePoliticalEconomyofAgriculturalPricingPoli- issue. Authors can benefit from critical commen- cies," "The Timing and Sequencing of Trade Lib- tary at various stages in the project cycle and eralization Policy," and "Macroeconomic Poli- should be required to respond to the comments cies, Crisis and Growth in the Long Run." A fifth made. study, "Managing Agricultural Development in * Forlarge and complex projects, careful thought Africa," although not formally initiated as part of must be given to mechanisms of quality control the program, shared the characteristics with the for the duration of the exercise. other four of having a multicountry approach, a * The resources and time needed to prepare long time frame, and a large budget and thus is synthesis volumes are sizable and must be al- being evaluated with them. In all these studies, lowed for when formulating the project. researchers were to apply a common analytical * A plan for dissemination must be part of the framework to evidence in each of a range of coun- project, and there must be full commitment to its tries, and then synthesize patterns of experience implementation. and the results. Each project was comprehen- As one evaluator described it, the success of a sively reviewed prior to funding. major comparative study is dependent on satisfy- The projects have been evaluated by external ing three prerequisites-a well-designed research researchers who are experts in each of the subject plan; thorough instructions for the country stud- fields. The purpose of the evaluations has been to ies, followed by continued oversight and direc- compare the resultsof the research with thebroadly tion by the project leaders; and limitation of the stated objectives of the program and the specific research topic to a set of straightforward ques- approved proposals-and to judge the overall tions amenable to empirical investigation and rel- merits of the comparative framework. evant to policy. In sum, studies of this nature can Evaluators were favorably impressed with the producearichharvestofresultsandpolicyadvice volume of detail gathered through this research but require a considerable amount of foresight, and found the country case studies highly infor- oversight, and skill at integration. mative. They appreciated the effort made to in- clude political and institutional factors in the analy- The Visiting Research Fellows Program sis, although authors often did not pursue this far The Visiting Research FellowsProgram(VRFP), enough. Opinions differed on the degree to which described in Part I of this report, has been formally these studies introduced useful methodological in place since 1989. innovations and succeeded in their attempts at In 1993, in the fifth year after its inception, an quantitative analysis. Clearly some projects evaluationof the program'seffectiveness wascon- achieved more than others. On dissemination, ducted. Its purpose was threefold: to assess the most projects scored highly in terms of publica- broader contribution of the program; to judge the tions, workshops, and conferences-although, in extent to which the VRFP meets its objectives; and 23 to evaluate the contributions of each fellow. Forty visit by both the fellow and the host department. research fellows were evaluated, eighteen from The fellowship term should be a minimum of six industrial countries and twenty-two from devel- months to allow fellows to become acquainted oping countries. The fellowships were classified with Bank staff and information resources and to into fivebroad groups: Energy, Environment, and ensure useful interactions with Bank staff. Natural Resources; Poverty and Social Welfare; Macroeconomic issues-Domestic; Macroeco- Research externalities. Externalities seem to vary nomic issues-International; and Economic Man- substantially and depend on the initiative and agementand Financial Intermediation. Eachgroup personalityof individual fellows. Ingeneral,bring- was assigned to a reviewer. ing scholars to the Bank has made them more Overall, the evaluators praised the program, aware of the institution's research needs and po- especially its flexibility, and recommended its tential, and the evaluators believe that their pres- continuation with certain modifications. They ence can only further the Bank's reputation in appreciated its multidimensional nature, which development economics. There is, however,a need permits some fellows to collaborate closely with for greater commitment on the part of the host staff on topics of interest and others to pursue division to ensure that externalities are achieved. their own research agenda. In comparison with similar programs, such as the National Fellows Quality of output. Although the reviewers noted Program of the Hoover Institution, the VRFP was significant variation in the value of output pro- observed to have one significant deficiency, a lack duced by the fellows, the fellows have generally of follow-up. The program office was not always produced excellent work of relevance to the Bank informed about publications generated after the and have enhanced the research climate. How- scholar's visit, although there has been increased ever, contributions in the field of environment submission of ex post reports in recent years. The and natural resources were modest, at best. One evaluators praised the recent move to inviting possible explanation offered was that as socioeco- younger scholars from developing countries, since nomic analysis of environmental issues in the they can contribute through their specialized developing world is still relatively new, many knowledge of local institutions and countries. The environmental scholars are working on theoreti- evaluators pointed out, moreover, that fellows cal issues that might not be of direct operational from developing countries can challenge current relevance in the Bank. Some reviewers noted, Bank doctrines and so reduce the danger of intel- though, that equivalent if not better research out- lectual inbreeding. Observations and recommen- put could have been achieved in a university dations of the evaluators on specific aspects of the setting and the program might have limited program are outlined below. "additionality" in terms of research results in the realm of theory. A different balance of theory and Selection process. The nomination and selection policy analysis should be sought, and publication processes need to be more transparent and com- in premier professional journals should be a sec- petitive to enlarge the pool of able candidates and ondary concern. ensure a more objective and appropriate selec- On the whole, theexternal reviewerswereof the tion. Criteria should be equally rigorous for fel- opinion that the program was well thought of in lows from developing countries. The program the Bank, that plenty of candidates were available might broaden its scope to consider not only aca- for the program, and that the flexibility to bring demics but such practitioners asgovernment min- both fellows who collaborate extensively and those isters with past academic expertise. Administra- who work relatively independently should be tion of the program should be strengthened preserved. The reviewers felt that, with recom- through the preparation of well-formulated terms mended modifications, the program should be of reference by the nominating departments and continued. prompt submission of reports at the end of the 24 Part III Research directions for fiscal 1994 and beyond Research strategy ning to one in which the market has a dominant role. Many of the reform initiatives in these econo- The Bank's success in promoting development mies are aimed at introducing market mecha- has rested on providing an enlightened mix of nismsand institutionsunderpinningmarkettrans- capital, technical knowledge, and policy advice, actions. The design of reforms and the analysis of In an age in which information and ideas are seen their consequences for production efficiency, en- as increasingly pivotal, how large a contribution terprise structure and governance, household the Bank makes in the future will be inextricably welfare, and the provision of social services-to linked with its ability to remain at the forefront of name just a few-require empirical policy-oriented thinking on development. This calls for a commit- research. Such research can inform the unfolding of ment to sustaining intellectual excellence which this process in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet matches-if not exceeds-that of the recent past Union, and East Asia, but also in African countries as the demands on the Bank from old and new with poorly developed markets. clients are likely to increase. At the same time, the The second theme, which has been receiving environment in which the Bank operates may be a sustained attention for some years but remains more difficult one, competition could be sharper, inexhaustible, is growth. The emergence of the so- and expectationsasto what theBankmustachieve called new growth theories has led to a quicken- arebound tobehigher. Under these circumstances ing of research interest and drawn attention to a theneed for quality research thatenables theBank different set of policy handles-human resource to maintain if not enhance its intellectual leader- development, financial deepening, and public ship will be more acute. expenditure. Early results have already begun In line with Bank policy, the future research altering our perspective on the growth process, strategy reaffirms many of the priorities of the but a great deal more analytical and empirical recent past, such as poverty and human resources, work will be needed before the relationships now environmental issues, and transition in socialist being assessed are on a firm footing. economies. Where necessary these have been suit- Growth, or the lack of it, and the changes intro- ably reoriented in line with changing perceptions duced by transition in socialist economies strongly of development imperatives. The strategy under- affect the incidence of poverty and have large lying the research described in this section is de- consequencesfortheenvironment.Henceresearch fined by four principal and interconnected themes, in both poverty and the environment, which are of several of which touch directly and indirectly on particular interest to the Bank, will be closely tied issues related to poverty. to the work on transition and growth. The first relates to the transition by socialist The third theme, which intersects the two ear- economies from a system based on central plan- lier ones, centers on the respective roles of the 25 public and private sectors. This has attracted a acceptable standards of rigor. If the findings from great deal of attention, most notably in the for- such research are commensurate with the high merly socialist economies but in other countries as expectations, it will invigorate research in a num- well. The general view is that the public sector ber of fields that have been heavily investigated needs to reduce the scale of its activities, but but only with the tools of economics. nevertheless will retain a sizable presence in the These four major themes reflecting the opera- economy. Regulation of certain parts of the pri- tional concerns of the Bank provide the frame- vate economy by public bodies will have an im- work for future research. They straddle a range of portantbearing on efficiency, pricing, and techno- subthemes that are distributed across the various logical change. Thus research will concentrate on program objective categories. Individual items of mechanisms for increasing the scale and scope of research are grouped according to program objec- private sector operations, the efficiency of the tive category. public sector, and regulatory practices that achieve desired outcomes at the lowest cost. Allocation of research responsibilities The fourth and final theme concerns the interna- tional economy. With growing economic interde- The main responsibility for implementing the pendence and increased mobility of capital and Bank's research strategy will fall on two depart- labor, this theme is also taking on renewed signifi- ments in the Development Economics Vice Presi- cance. Of special note will be the emergence of dency: the Policy Research Department and the trade regions and blocs as well as the evolution of International Economics Department. This is a various international trading arrangements consequence of the reorganization, which sought through the 1990s. Similarly, in a large number of to lessen the dispersion of research in the Bank. instances environmental policy calls for regional Under the system that has emerged, operational if not worldwide coordination. Thus research on departments will maintain their relatively low- international economic matters remains integral key research involvement, the three thematic vice to the Bank's strategy. presidencies will actively support operations Many aspects of development that are being through best-practice dissemination, guidelines, investigated call for a broader, interdisciplinary and training, and DECVP will shoulder an in- mix of analytical techniques. For instance, the creasing proportion of the research within the approaches to privatization in the transition econo- Bank. mies, the forms of corporate governance that are emerging and their efficacy, the state's capacity to Policy Research Department regulate industry in a market environment, the PRD's research mandate has expanded to en- design of rural health care, and approaches to compass sectoral research in addition to environmentally friendly resource use all require macroeconomic and country research. Three of its not just the skillful application of economic con- six divisions are responsible for sectoral research cepts but also the selective use of concepts drawn (Poverty and Human Resources, Finance and Pri- from other social sciences. Only through a juxta- vate Sector Development, and Infrastructure, position of economics and political science can the Agriculture, and Environment) and three are re- growth of the private sector in the formerly social- sponsible for macro-oriented research (Transition ist countries be adequately analyzed. Similarly, Economics, Macroeconomics and Growth, and many aspects of rural change and urbanization Public Economics). PRD's future work program can be more fully grasped if economics joins forces reflects significant shifts in research priorities, withotherdisciplines.Theneedinmanyinstances resulting both from the natural evolution of its to follow an interdisciplinary route is especially activitiesand from the newmandateof thereorga- important when it comes to defining policies that nized department. must temper the search for economic efficiency About 25 percent of the department's research with other social or political concerns. resources for fiscal 1994 will be devoted to short- The perception that working several disciplin- term studies, permitting a faster and more flexible ary angles can be rewarding has definitely deep- response to rapidly changing demands for re- ened among researchers in the Bank. More re- search-based analytic work. About 30 percent of search proposals are couched in the language of fiscal 1994 departmental research resources will political economy, and the Research Committee be devoted to a limited number of major cross- has encouraged this tendency so long as it meets divisional products, with increasing attention to 26 macrosectoral linkages and varied country ap- studies are planned for fiscal 1994-95. These will proaches and experience. The department will cover such key areas as the approach to and expe- continue to conduct exploratory research on is- rience with enterprise reform, financial sector re- sues that are likely to demand policy attention in forms, the macroeconomic implications of stabili- the near future. zation and new currencies, and unemployment and social welfare in the transition. Drawing on International Economics Department these studies, a comparative evaluation of se- The International Economics Department's lected aspects of reform is planned-for incorpo- mandate is complementary to PRD's focus on ration into a book or possibly a future World primarily domestic issues. In addition to under- Development Report. A major comparative study is taking research on economic trends and interna- ongoing on enterprise behavior and economic tional policy issues, IEC will continue to provide reforms in Central and Eastern Europe, with the a wide array of data and reports on debt, trade, first phase due for completion in fiscal 1995 and a national accounts, and international financial and second phase-to include surveys of the Czech commodity markets. The production of its regular and Slovak Republics---planned. Another research data reports and thecollection and analysis of new project will analyze the main directions of agricul- data each will account for about 25 percent of IEC tural and food policy reforms in some transitional resources, with policy research and information economies in Europe and Russia and synthesize services absorbing about 35 percent and 15 per- the findings for a comparative view of the effec- cent respectively. tiveness of various instruments for improving IEC has vastly expanded the number of coun- efficiency and inducing agricultural recovery. trieson which it reports as the Bank's membership Several case-based studies will explore the has increased, a task that also has entailed devel- changing profile of enterprise governance. Enter- opment of methods to adapt reporting from the prises emerging during the transition period are systems used in countries of Eastern Europe and neither fully socialist nor fully market-oriented; the former Soviet Union. These methods will be rather, they are survival-oriented. Research ex- refined and revised to improve accuracy and com- ploring the adjustment behavior of enterprises in parability as further information and analysis be- the Russian Federation will be completed in fiscal comes available. 1995. A comprehensive study on the current struc- To offset the deterioration in quality of primary ture of industry in Russia has been initiated. So far data from national sources and aggregates pro- the study has found little evidence of aggregate or vided by international organizations, IEC will industry concentration at the national level, which initiate a more systematic reporting of data qual- suggests that more than one or two enterprises in ity notes, expand its data library to substitute for each industry must be producing many of the external sources in selected areas, work with na- needed inputs. The vertical dependency of enter- tional statistical personnel to improve reporting, prises is a perception of their directors-and not and increase support of operational staff for coun- based on actual market structure. try statistical work. And to accommodate an im- The impact of reform on households holds im- provement in and expansion of dissemination portant implications for poverty and welfare. A products, in fiscal 1994 IEC research on commod- research project expected to be completed in fiscal ity markets, global forecasting, the short-term eco- 1996 is evaluating the impact of stabilization and nomic outlook, and the informal sector will be trade policies and institutional change on the reduced. economies in transition, focusing especially on the impact on living standards and household wel- New research fare. Research on unemployment and job transi- tions is using a rich microeconomic database to Transition of the formerly centrally planned study labor reallocation in a reforming socialist economies economy in Eastern Europe that faces rapidly Research will continue on the macroeconomic rising unemployment. adjustment and growth of economies in transition Major research on interactions between sup- and the microeconomic and institutional issues ply factors and the use and provision of social specific to these countries. The record of policy services will be completed in fiscal 1995. Empiri- reforms and experiences of countries in transition cal studies of welfare changes during and after is steadily accumulating, and several comparative transition will look at the new policies designed 27 to deal with the problems of transition. Analysis examine the significance of neighborhood effects of income distribution at the end of communist on performance and to understand the mecha- rule in five Eastern European countries has pro- nisms through which success or failure spread duced some preliminary findings: income distri- across borders. The knowledge gained from re- bution in socialist countries was fairly egalitar- search on the causes of growth will be synthesized ian, urban workers were most affected by the in a book that should help make the findings economic decline, and social transfers had no accessible to a broad audience. redistributive function since they were almost Linked to the investigation of the growth pro- uniform across income groups. cess are planned studies aimed at deepening our The Bank has been actively involved in the knowledgeof how theresponse to external shocks process of transition in the agricultural sector for affects long-term growth (for example, by com- several transforming socialist economies. A com- paring the performance of Latin America and parative study synthesizing the Bank's experi- Africa with that of East Asia) and the reasons ences has been proposed, and a workshop held in underlying the slow recovery of growth following September 1993 marked the inception of the study. a major stabilization exercise. Research will focus on the immediate economic The recently completed East Asian Miraclestudy objectives of the transition in socialist agriculture, will serve as a point of departure for research on namely resumption of growth, efficient foreign the determinants of high savings rates, which agricultural trade,and sustainable improvements have been cited as critical for growth and in rural income. macroeconomic stability. The experience of East Asian and other countries will be used to analyze Economic management the manner in which growth affects the incidence The complexity of the interactions between the of poverty and trends in various social indicators. determinants of economic success has limited the Furthermore, research is planned toexamine ways ability of economists to accurately project basic of enhancing the transferability of policy lessons macroeconomic variables beyond the short term. gained from the miracle study to other countries. But economic policy must be based on some esti- The focus of public economics work has shifted mates of future conditions-for example, wages, from tax research to public expenditures and fis- tax revenues, international interest rates, exchange cal decentralization. New research initiatives on rates of major trading partners, and prices of fiscal decentralization will include development investments and goods. The International Eco- of a methodology to measure the fiscal equaliza- nomics Department has used the Global Economic tion among subnational governments; analysis of Model (GEM) to forecast trends in these variables the design and assignment of revenue instru- in preparing its periodic Short-Term Outlook and ments, expenditure responsibilities,and intergov- Global Economic Prospects papers. This model emmental transfers; and an empirical study of the generates macroeconomic projections for all the link between decentralization and fiscal perfor- Bank's member countries. By integrating the coun- mance. tries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Future research on China will try to establish, Union in the model, the IEC will substantially qualitatively as well as quantitatively, whether increase the reliability of its results although this administrativeand fiscal decentralization has pro- will delay the completion of the model. A broad moted rapid growth and to indicate how fiscal assessment of the Bank's analytic models was decentralization has to evolve in the future if undertaken to see how fully these countries should China is to maintain macroeconomic stability un- be incorporated in the model and in what se- der conditions of rapid growth. The lessons dis- quence. Also, the Bank's larger models and data- tilled from the Chinese experience should have a bases are being revised to make them comparable bearingon policy formulation in othercountriesthat across countries and accessible through standard are tackling issues arising from decentralization. personal computers and easily transferable soft- A major report on fiscal decentralization and ware. The goal is to provide country analysts major research on public expenditure allocation inside and outside the Bank direct access to data are scheduled for completion in fiscal 1995. The for most of the 140 countries in the analytical Public Economics Division, Policy Research De- database. partment (PRDPE), will set up a Public Expendi- Building on the work done in the recent past on ture Analysis and Data Unit in 1994 to collaborate the factors influencing growth, the intention is to with and provide technical support to govern- 28 ments in collecting data for public expenditure tal causes of market failure in various channels analysis. and suggest policy recommendations. Research examining the link between the com- Research on private enterprise development in position of public expenditure and economic Africa will focus primarily on an empirical inves- growth is expected to be completed in fiscal 1995. tigation based on enterprise surveys and on in- Building on preliminary results, this study seeks depth analyses of the effect of government poli- to identify the factors that make certain types of cies and supply-side constraints on the perfor- public expenditure productive and others non- mance of African firms. productive. The goal is to develop indicators for guidingdecisionmaking about which components Financial intermediation of public expenditure to expand and which to cut The Finance and Private Sector Development in a program of fiscal adjustment. Ongoing re- Division, Policy Research Department (PRDFP), search by PRDPE is expected to yield method- will continue its research on the effect of the ological advances in the next few years for assess- development of banking on economic growth and ing the performance of public spending programs study the links between stock market develop- and to offer new insights on the effectiveness of ment,corporatefinancingdecisions,andeconomic public expenditure policies in poverty alleviation. development. This research will also assemble More countries seem willing to consider user data on nonmonetary financial institutions, such charges to finance public services, both to reduce as insurance companies, investment companies, deficits and to avoid undesirable effects, such as pension funds, and development banks. New re- pollution and congestion. A research project will search is also planned on supervision and regula- price externalities from road use, such as conges- tion of the financial system. Research on term tion, accidents, and noise pollution. finance will examine the problem of long-term The African economic indicators will be up- finance and design policies to increase access to dated for a second time to present time-seriesdata long-term capital. for 1982-92 and annual averages for three differ- An IFC pilot study on relationships between the ent periods. The expanded series will help place stock exchange and development in the Republic the past decade in historical perspective and of Korea will eventually be extended to other broaden access to information on Africa. Research countries. Research will alsobe conducted onhow has also been launched on indigenous institutions firms in developing countries finance investment. and management practices to illuminate the dy- Twoongoingresearchprojectsonthemarketstruc- namics of indigenous institutional change and ture and outcome for the Mexican stock exchange provide lessons for Africa's management in the and on enterprise transformation in Poland will 1990s. be continued in fiscal 1994 and fiscal 1995. Another research project is studying the role of Private sector development and public sector payments systems in financial sector reform in management developing and formerly socialist countries. This New research will be initiated in fiscal 1995 on research is expected to provide policy lessons and challenges for the regulation of industrial and a basic set of principles on improving payments infrastructure enterprises after privatization. In systems, which will be synthesized in a book. A particular, an investigation of the cost of business conference planned for fiscal 1994 will launch regulation is intended to identify which regula- studies on key payments system issues and the tory constraints are binding in a particular setting role of the private sector and the central bank. and to measure their costs to private firms and the economy. One expected output will be guidelines Poverty, distribution, and social welfare for operational staff to diagnose the most burden- New sectoral research will focus heavily on the some formal rules and to measure their economic determinants of poverty and the environmental costs. consequences of economic reform. Based on that There is increasing concern that distribution research, the Poverty and Human Resources Divi- systems in industrializing countries do not oper- sion, Policy Research Department (PRDPH), plans ate in a competitive manner and impede access to to produce a Policy Research Report on the social larger domestic and foreign markets. Research and environmental consequences of economic will examine the importance of imperfect compe- reform. PRDPH will also design prospective stud- tition in distribution systems and the fundamen- ies to evaluate the impact of such Bank social 29 sector investments as social safety net programs, enterprise training appropriate to national cir- decentralization of public school funding, and cumstances. Industrial countries have already rec- health and nutrition programs. ognized the importance of enterprise training to Explicating the links between policy and pov- productivity and international competitiveness, erty reduction will be another research focus. An and research in this area is making headway. ongoing project is studying the impact of price As a follow-up to earlier research on the deter- liberalization in rural areas of China; another is minants of health and nutritional outcomes in exploring the impact of macroeconomic and Indonesia, the East Asia and Pacific region is sectoral policies on consumption in India during conducting the Indonesian Resource Mobiliza- 1951-90. Researchon the causes and consequences tion Study (IRMS) to measure the impact of higher of the productivity improvement of women will user fees on the utilization of primary health ser- examine the sustainability of three major credit vices (see box 2). The IRMS will use longitudinal programs in Bangladesh and the effect of these panel data from surveys of the same households programs on households. before and after intervention periods to measure A project to study poverty in rural China will the impact of experimental changes in price and construct a panel data set from rural household quality on medical care utilization and health surveydata forfour provincescollected byChina's outcomes. Important goals of World Bank pro- State Statistical Bureau over a six-year period. grams, such as the improvement of health status These data will then be analyzed to improve un- and the alleviation of poverty, are addressed by derstanding of the dynamics of poverty in rural this study. China, especially the factors contributing to pov- Ongoing research on private sector involve- erty and its alleviation over time. The perfor- ment in providing health and education services mance of existing public and private poverty re- finds that government health programs in devel- lief arrangements, including self-insurance and oping countries are neither equitable nor efficient risk-sharing practices, will be evaluated. This re- and reflect thecurrent political equilibrium, which search will not only allow the first systematic cannot easily be changed. The study, to be com- investigation using household-level data of tran- pleted in fiscal 1996, has also found great varia- sitions in and out of poverty in rural China, but tions across countries in the proportion of second- will have important implications for the design of ary student enrollment in private schools and future antipoverty policies as well. attributed the variation primarily to cultural het- erogeneity, especially religious heterogeneity. Human resources development and employment Limited public spending on secondary education Work on labor markets begun in fiscal 1993 will also leads to proportionately higher enrollment in expand, with emphasis on the effects of labor private schools. market interventions and institutions on interna- Much as World Development Report 1994 will tional competitiveness and the speed of adjust- situate the role of infrastructure in the overall ment. A major research project is planned for development process and help advance the de- fiscal 1995 on the impact of labor market policies bate on policy, World Development Report 1995 will and institutions on economic performance. draw together the many strands of research on Research on the impact of organized labor and labor markets and human resources to analyze the policy interventions in the labor market on the patterns of employment, examine possible strate- short-term adjustment to economic reforms and gies, and identify some of the most critical issues long-run economic performance is expected to that will engage researchers in the future. provide guidance in two policy areas. It will help to assess the appropriateness of the Bank's focus Environment and natural resources on product market reforms in the 1980s and the Research on environmental and social aspects extent to which labor markets in developing coun- of adjustment will assess the effects of alternative tries were able to circumvent government inter- patterns of economic growth and of macroeco- ventions during the past two decades. nomic, trade, and fiscal adjustment policies on A cross-national study on enterprise training social progress and on the environment. Specific strategies and productivity will attempt to iden- sectoral policies to deal with adverse environ- tify the structural factors and market failures that mental and povertyoutcomes will alsobestudied. impede trainingin developingcountries,and pro- The Global Environment Facility (GEF) of the vide guidance for designing policies to promote Environment Department is responsible for sev- 30 eral research projects to be completed in fiscal international capital markets. It will also examine 1994. These include designing strategies for con- utilities' access to private financing and other servation, lessons from GEF experience to date, approaches for meeting capacity requirements the strategic significance of the Bank GEF through the involvement of the private sector. biodiversity portfolio and global warming portfo- lio, and an operational definition of incremental Adjustment, trade, capital flows, and debt costs under the Montreal Protocol. The surge of portfolio flows to several middle- Previous research on agricultural productivity income countries in recent years shifts the focus of clearly underlined the importance of securing a study of international capital markets from the better understanding of agricultural technology management of the commercial bank debt crisis to policies. A new study will focus on investments in the study of other private capital flows to coun- national agricultural research systems, efficiency tries regaining access to market. How this surge in of resource use, and institutional mechanisms for portfolio flows is different from and how it is research to assess organizations that service the similar to the experience leading to the debt crisis knowledge industries on which agriculture de- are the two key questions that IEC is beginning to pends. explore. Potentially important differences relate The Bank is intensifying its dialogue on land to nonbank investors, mostly private, and the issues in the Latin America and the Caribbean increasing importance of equity investment. region and will consider further reforms of rural Whether these differences are highly relevant in land markets. This requires a clear understanding the macroeconomic aggregate and, if so, what are of the potential benefits and limitations of opera- the optimal external finance mix and the policy to tions that aim to provide greater security of ten- achieve it, are questions with important policy ure. One project will examine land tenure insecu- ramifications. Past experiences can shed light on rity and other institutional restrictions affecting the current issues. The surge of new flows also has small farm productivity in Honduras and Para- similarities with the period leading to the debt guay. The empirical estimates of this research will crisis: the flows are stimulated by low interna- permit evaluation of the efficiency and desirabil- tional interest rates, are susceptible to changes in ity of investing in land titling projects. foreign exchange rates, and suggest substantial Another agricultural project will investigate the country risk in the case of several debtors. These economic justification for government restrictions factors need to be explored to avoid repeating the on the use of land on the fringes of urban areas. crisis of the 1980s. The project will concentrate on Bangladesh and Substantive work on foreign direct investment Indonesia, two countries with high population (FDI) in the past two decades failed to yield sub- densities that are experiencing significant land stantial empirical evidence on its benefits. To fill conversion from rural to urban uses. The project this gap, a study will analyze the relationships of will build on existing models of the two countries FDI with technology spillovers and pollution in- to make predictions about total urban land use tensity and examine the general determinants of under different scenarios of infrastructure provi- FDI in manufacturing, with a focus on developing sion and land use and development policies. countries. A major multidepartment study will explore The 1994 Global Economic Prospects (GEP) re- the production prospects during the next decade port will focus on the economic links in primary forcotton, a product with a vital multisectoral role commodity markets between developing coun- in the economies of many developing countries, tries and the international economy. The research Case studies carried out in nine countries will will cover the world food outlook, prospects for form the foundation for examining a series of agricultural exports from Sub-Saharan Africa, technological, economic, policy, and institutional commodity risk management, liberalization of issues. A synthesis report will be discussed at a agricultural trade,and trendsincommodity terms workshop in Cairo in October 1994. of trade, includingmacroeconomiclinkages.Trade Animportantexternallyfundedresearchproject in services will receive special emphasis in the managed by the Cofinancing Financial Advisory 1995 GEP report. Services Department will study the private fi- Building on the results of a pilot study of Ger- nancing of power sector investments in a range of man and Swiss machinery exports to Brazil, a countries with different regulatory environments research project beginning in fiscal 1994 will look and varying degrees of country risk and access to at the effects of price and of the creditworthiness 31 and trade policies of developing countries on the In the changeable and interdependent environ- economicefficiencyof theirpurchaseof imported ment of the early 1990s, it is expected that the equipment and their domestic machinery indus- flexibility and responsiveness required in the re- tries. The study will include a larger sample of search program's recent years will continue. New exporting industrial countries and importing de- directions and changes in emphasis are expected veloping countries. in some areas, while progress, although some- Factorscontributing totheresurgenceofprotec- times painfully slow, will be made in others that tion following initiation of trade liberalization are we see as the heart of the research endeavor. being examined in research on trade liberalization But some of the efforts and changes being made programs in ten developing countries. The study now will yield benefits and shape the Bank's work is expected to culminate in the development of and vision for a long time to come. The continued safeguards to liberalization strategies for devel- improvement in the information and data on which oping countries. empirical research and thus policy insights are A series of studies is examining problems of the based will be maintained. Descriptive analysis as GATT system that hold particular significance for well as strategic guidance will come from continu- developing countries. One study found that while ing work on the transitional economies. The inte- theGATIasan institution has been important, the gration of environmental aspects into the Bank's GATT's influence on regional arrangements has economicand social assessmentswillbeexpanded been marginal because GATT rules have not been and refined and will improve the basis on which rigorously applied. Other studies are reviewing decisions are made daily. In financial and trade actions such as antidumping measures that re- arenas, where cooperative international systems strict imports. Preliminary findings show that the yield benefits greater than the sum of their parts, recent broadening of GATT rules to include these a decade of concerted research has enabled ana- measures neither strengthens the GATT's disci- lysts to provide policymakers with rapid and plinary power nor increases the effectiveness of its comprehensive advice on the likely effects of vari- dispute settlement mechanism. ous strategies. 32 Notes 1. PRDPH; Data analysis for development 16. PHRWD; Letting girls learn: Promising ap- policy. proaches in primary and secondary education. 2. PRDPH; World poverty monitoring. 17. PRDPH, PHN, AF4PH, AF4GA,and AF4NG; 3. PHRPA; Policy analysis of poverty: Appli- Economic and policy determinants of fertility in cable methods and case studies, phase II. Sub-Saharan Africa. 4. CECTP; Adjustment, income distribution, 18. PHN; Impediments to contraceptive use in and poverty. different environments. 5. PHRPA; Theeconomicsof nonmarket trans- 19. ESP, PRDPH, EC2HR, and MNAVP; Man- fers in developing countries. aging the social cost of adjustment. 6. ESP and SA1PH; Credit programs for the 20. TWUDR; The marginal productivity of in- poor: Household and intrahousehold impacts and frastructure in developing countries. program sustainability. 21. TWUWS; Willingness to pay for rural water 7. PHRPA; Macroeconomic adjustment and supply. poverty relief: The roles of social policy and house- 22. INUWS; Private sector participation in wa- hold behavior. ter supply and sanitation. 8. PRDFP, PRDPE, PRDTP, PRDTM, and 23. INUWS; Synergistic health effects from wa- PRDFD; Income security for old age: Conceptual ter supply and sanitation interventions. background and major issues. 24. AGRTN and AGRDR; Irrigation research: 9. PRDPE; Public expenditures and poverty. Preparation of an international program for tech- 10. LATDRand HROVP;Indigenouspeopleand nology research in irrigation and drainage. poverty in Latin America: An empirical analysis. 25. TWURD; Analysis of the results from the 11. PRDPH and ESP; Economics of education. extensive survey of housing indicators in fifty- 12. PRD and EAPVP; Public goods, private two countries. goods, and social sector outcomes. 26. CECFP; Bank restructuring: The interna- 13. LAT, LA1HR, EA2HR, EA3HR, and EDI; tional experience. Improving the quality of primary education in 27. CECFP, LA4DR, and lENIN; The impact of Latin America. financial reform. 14. EA3PH; Thedeterminantsand consequences 28. IECDI; Closed-end country funds: Theoreti- of the placement of government programs in In- cal and empirical investigation. donesia. 29. IECDI; Japanese foreign direct investment 15. EAPVP and PRDPH; Determinants of nutri- in developing countries: Trends, determinants, tional and health outcomes in Indonesia and im- and policies. plications for health policy reforms. 30. EMTAG; Agricultural credit in the EMENA 33 region: Characteristics, issues, and strategy. 53. CECDR, CECPS, EAIDR, EA1CO, EA3CO, 31. IENIN and AF41E; Meeting the financial EAPVP, EDIFI, and IECIT; Strategies for rapid needs of Ghana's small and medium-scale enter- growth: Public policy and the Asian miracle. prises. 54. LATIF; Macroeconomic policies, crisis, and 32. IECSE; Measuring the incomesof economies growth in the long run. of the former Soviet Union. 55. CECTM; How do national policies affect 33. EA2DRand DECVP;Reestimation of China's long-run growth? national accounts and growth rates. 56. CECTM; Patterns of growth: Further work 34. PRDTM, PRDTP, EMTDR, EA1CO, EC3DR, on national policies and long-run growth; and and FODD2; Privatization in Eastern Europe. IECDR, IECAP, and IECSE; Total factor produc- 35. CECSE, FODD2, EA1CO, ECA, and MNA; tivity growth in industrial and developing coun- Elements of social transformation (privatization). tries. 36. CFSPS and LEGEC; Privatization in the re- 57. PRDPE; Intergovernmental fiscal relations publics of the former Soviet Union: Framework in developing countries. and initial results. 58. CECPE; Fiscal incentives reform. 37. IEN; Private sector manufacturing in East- 59. IENIN; Foreign direct investment and trade. ern Europe. 60. PRDPE; Corporate income tax incentives for 38. PRDPE; Intergovernmental relations in Rus- investment in developing countries. sia. 61. PRDTM and EC3C3; The macroeconomic 39. CECTP and EC3DR; Transitional trade and implications of parallel foreign exchange markets payments arrangements in the former Soviet in developing countries. Union; CECTP; How moving to world prices af- 62. PRDTM; Target zones and real exchange fects the terms of trade in fifteen countries of the rates in developing countries. former Soviet Union. 63. PRDTM; Foreign exchange auction markets 40. PRDTM; Labor market dynamics during the and exchange rate unification in Sub-Saharan Af- transition of a socialist economy. rica. 41. AGRAP, CECSE, and EMTPM; Agricultural 64. PSD, PRDEI, and EA3EN; Industrial pollu- reform in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet tion: Global indices. Union: Dilemmas and strategies. 65. ENVPR; Improved accounting of natural 42. AGRAP; How retail food markets responded resources and the environment for more sustain- to price liberalization in Russia. able resource management. 43. ECAVP and EC4NR; Agricultural market- 66. IECIT; International trade and the environ- ing in the former Soviet Union. ment. 44. FSD; Banking in transitional socialist econo- 67. PRDTP, ENVLW, and ASTTP; Economic mies. growth and trade policy in Western Africa: Impli- 45. PRDTM; Financial aspects of the transition cations of the degradation of the vegetation cover, (conference). phase II. 46. EC2PL; Enterprise behavior and competi- 68. PRDEI, PRDDR, and PSD; Industrial pollu- tiveness. tion in developing countries. 47. EC2PL; State enterprise behavior in Poland 69. PRDEI;Enterpriseownershipand pollution. during the Economic Transformation Program. 70. PRDEI; Econometric analysis of pollution 48. CECPS; Welfare consequences of selling pub- abatement costs. lic enterprises: Case studies from Chile, Malaysia, 71. ENVPE; Public policy instruments. Mexico, and the United Kingdom. 72. PSD; Environmentally friendly technology. 49. MNIlE and MN2IE; Public enterprise man- 73. PRDPE and EMTEN; World energy subsi- agement and state holding companies. dies and implications for greenhouse gas emis- 50. IENIN; High technology: Implications for sions and government revenues. developing countries. 74. PRDPE; Energy pricing study. 51. IFC; Intellectual property rights protection 75. IENEP; The urban energy transition in de- and technology transfer through foreign direct veloping countries. investment. 76. ENVPR; Integrated land management. 52. PRDFP, PRDTP, and PSD; The role of gov- 77. AGR, ENV, EDI, EC1TU, AF4NG, and emnment in the development of support systems SA2NA; Farming systems and natural resource for small and medium-size enterprises. management: A comparison of successful experi- 34 ences in developing countries. sults, and the road ahead. 78. ENVPE and AGRTN; Dryland management. 87. "Stripped" is a technical term in finance. In 79. AGRAP and AGRTN; Privatization of agri- this context stripped prices are adjusted prices. cultural support services. The adjustment amounts to netting out the contri- 80. AGRAP; Drought insurance. bution of the enhancements attached. 81. IECIT; The world food outlook 88. IECIT; License prices and rent sharing in the 82. AGRTN, AGRDR, and AGRAP; Technology Multi-Fibre Arrangement. assessment of agricultural development. 89. PRDTP, PRDPE, and MNAVP; Volume on 83. CECTP and ENVPR; Pesticide externalities, industrial competition, productivity, and trade comparative advantage, and commodity trade: regimes. Cotton in Andhra Pradesh, India. 90. CECTP and LATTF; New dimensions in re- 84. AGRAP, AGRDR, AGRTN, LATAD, gional integration. LA2AG, LA2DR, ASTDR, ENV, IECIT, CGIAR, 91. EC2DR, MN2CO, CECFP, and IECIT; As- and OEDD2; Advancing agricultural productiv- sessing the Mexico-United States free trade agree- ity: Technical and behavioral constraints. ment. 85. CECMG and LA3C2; The political economy 92. IECIT; Manufactures trade modeling. of structural adjustment. 93. IECIT; Commodity price formation and be- 86. PRDTM; Adjustment in Africa: Reforms, re- havior. 35 Appendix tables Appendix table 1 Bank research in relation to other Bank analytical work and the administrative budget, fiscal 1990 to fiscal 1993 Fiscal 1990 Fiscal 1991 Fiscal 1992 Fiscal 1993 Millions Percentage Millions Percentage Millions Percentage Millions Percentage Item of dollars of total of dollars of total of dollars of total of dollars of total Research 23.4 17.4 22.5 15.5 25.1 14.9 26.5 13.7 Economic and sector work 73.2 54.2 82.4 56.7 101.9 60.7 127.0 65.7 Policy work 38.3 28.4 40.4 27.8 41.0 24.4 39.8 20.6 Total analytical work 134.9 100.0 145.3 100.0 168.1 100.0 193.3 100.0 Memo items: Research as a percentage of Bank administrative expenses 4.2 3.7 3.8 3.4 a/ Research expenditure in constant fiscal 1993 dollars 27.7 25.0 26.0 26.5 a. "Bank administrative expense' is defined in fiscal 1993 as the total unit-managed program, including reimbursable programs, which were excluded in previous years. Source: Planning and Budgeting Department. Appendix table 2A Resources devoted to research, by department, fiscal 1992 Total research costs Centrally approved projects Departmental studies RSB and total staff cost Research Support Staff cost Staff cost Total staff cost Budget Total Percent- expenditure Time Cost cost Time Cost Time Cost Cost age of Department ($,000) (years) ($,000) ($,000) (years) ($,000) (years) ($,000) (S,000) total Development Economics 3,077.3 25.8 3,629.7 6,707.0 46.0 6,471.6 71.8 10,101.3 13,178.6 52.5 International Economics 457.9 4.2 590.9 1,048.8 21.5 3,024.8 25.7 3,615.7 4,073.6 16.2 Country Economics 1,686.4 21.0 2,954.4 4,640.8 19.0 2,673.1 40.0 5,627.5 7,313.9 29.2 Research Advisory Staff 709.8 0.5 703 780.1 2.9 408.0 3.4 478.3 1,188.1 4.7 EDI 543 0.0 0.0 54-3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.3 0.2 WDR 45.2 0.0 0.0 45.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.2 0.2 DECVP 123.7 0.1 14.1 137.8 2.6 365.8 2.7 379.9 503.6 2.0 Sector Policy and Research 1,527.5 13.0 1,828.9 3,356.4 47.8 6,724.8 60.8 8,553.8 10,081.3 40.2 Agriculture and Rural Development 131.4 1.9 267.3 398.7 8.6 1,209.9 10.5 1,477.2 1,608.6 6.4 Environment 19.9 0.0 0.0 19.9 5-3 745.6 5.3 745.6 765.5 3.1 Infrastructure and Urban Development 414.1 2.1 295.4 709.5 6.9 970.7 9.0 1,266.2 1,680.3 6.7 Industry and Energy 153.2 2.8 393.9 547.1 7.5 1,055.2 10.3 1,449.1 1,602.3 6.4 Population and Human Resources 808.9 6.2 872.3 1,681.2 19.5 2,743.4 25.7 3,615.7 4,424.6 17.6 Regional offices 1,049.9 0.3 57.8 1,107.7 33 636.0 3.6 693.8 1,743.7 7.0 Africa 188.3 0.0 0.0 188.3 03 57.8 0.3 57.8 246.1 1.0 Asia 165.8 0.0 0.0 165.8 0.2 38.5 0.2 38.5 204.3 0.8 Europe, Middle East, and North Africa 58.5 03 57.8 116.3 0.7 134.9 1.0 192.7 251.2 1.0 Latin America and the Caribbean 617.3 0.0 0.0 6173 0.9 173.4 0.9 173.4 790.7 3.2 CFSPS 20.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 1.2 231.3 1.2 231.3 251.3 1.0 IFC 77.4 0.0 0.0 77.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.4 0.3 Total 5,732.1 39.1 5,516.5 11,248.6 97.1 13,832.4 136.2 19,348.9 25,081.0 100.0 Source Environmentally Sustainable Development, Shared Information and Technical Unit, and Research Advisory Staff Appendix table 2B Resources devoted to research, by department, fiscal 1993 Total research costs Centrally approved projects Departmental studies RSB and total staff cost Research Support Staff cost Staff cost Total staff cost Budget Total Percent- expenditure Time Cost cost Time Cost Time Cost Cost age of Department ($,000) (years) ($,000) (5,000) (years) ($,000) (years) (5,000) (5,000) total Development Economics 3,378.6 36.7 5,828.8 9,207.4 48.2 7,655.3 84.9 13,484.1 16,862.7 63.6 International Economics 290.0 4.0 635.3 925.3 17.3 2,747.6 21.3 3,382.9 3,672.9 13.8 Policy Research 2,195.2 29.8 4,732.9 6,928.1 27.7 4,399.4 57.5 9,132.4 11,327.6 42.7 Research Advisory Staff 750.9 1.2 190.6 941.5 2.0 317.6 3.2 508.2 1,259.1 4.7 Economic Development Institute 1183 1.6 254.1 372.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 254.1 372.4 1.4 Development Policy Group 24.2 0.1 15.9 40.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.9 40.1 0.2 DECVP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 190.6 1.2 190.6 190.6 0.7 Sectoral Vice Presidencies 749.5 6.4 1,016.5 1,766.0 41.6 6,607.1 48.0 7,623.5 8,373.0 31.6 Agriculture and Natural Resources 1263 13 206.5 332.8 4.8 762.4 6.1 968.8 1,095.1 4.1 Environment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 1,095.9 6.9 1,095.9 1,095.9 4.1 Transportation, Water and Urban Development 227.1 1.4 222.4 449.5 5.2 825.9 6.6 1,048.2 1,2753 4.8 FinancialSector Development 10.0 0.1 15.9 25.9 2.3 365.3 2.4 381.2 391.2 15 Industry and Energy 155.8 0.1 15.9 171.7 1.4 222.4 1.5 238.2 394.0 1.5 Private Sector Develoment 10.0 0.5 79.4 89.4 5.5 873.5 6.0 952.9 962.9 3.6 Education and Social Policy 6.5 3.0 476.5 483.0 11.4 1,810.6 14.4 2,287.1 2,293.6 8.6 Population, Health and Nutrition 213.8 0.0 0.0 213.8 4.1 651.2 4.1 651.2 865.0 3.3 Regional offices 1,021.3 0.1 15.9 1,037.2 0.6 95.3 0.7 111.2 1,132.5 4.3 Africa 231.0 0.0 0.0 231.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 231.0 0.9 East Asia and Pacific 17.2 0.0 0.0 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.2 0.1 South Asia 35.4 0.0 0.0 35.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.4 0.1 Europe and Central Asia 145.7 0.0 0.0 145.7 0.6 95.3 0.6 95.3 241.0 0.9 Middle East and North Africa 184.7 0.0 0.0 184.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 184.7 0.7 Latin America and Carribean 4073 0.1 15.9 423.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.9 423.2 1.6 Others 120.0 0.0 0.0 120.0 0.2 31.8 0.2 31.8 151.8 0.6 Total 5,269.4 43.2 6,861.2 12,130.6 90.6 14,389.4 133.8 21,250.6 26,520.0 100.0 Source: Environmentally Sustainable Development, Shared Information and Technical Unit, and Research Advisory Staff Appendix table 3A Resources devoted to research, by program objective, fiscal 1992 Total research costs Centrally approved projects RSB and Staff Cost of total staff cost Research Support Staff cost departmental studies Total staff cost Budget Total Percent- expenditure Time Cost cost Time Cost Time Cost Cost age of Program objective category ($,000) (years) (5,000) (5,000) (years) (S,000) (years) ($,000) ($,000) total Adjustment, trade, and debt 1,657.6 14.0 1,972.4 3,630.0 15.8 2245.6 29.8 4,218.0 5,875.6 23.4 Poverty reduction and human resource development 1,347.3 9.7 1,368.5 2,715.8 30.0 4,270.5 39.7 5,639.0 6,986.4 27.9 Private and public sector reform 575.8 8.5 1,199.2 1,775.0 13.5 1,920.9 22.0 3,120.2 3,695.9 14.7 Financial intermediation 179.3 0.7 104.4 283.7 3.2 452.8 3.9 557.2 736.5 2.9 Environment and forestry 513.5 2.7 378.1 891.6 8.9 1,265.9 11.6 1,644.0 2,157.5 8.6 Natural resourcs 24.6 0.3 45.1 69.7 4.3 615.2 4.6 660.3 684.9 2.7 Basic infrastructure and urban development 4813 1.4 198.9 680.2 2.7 383.0 4.1 582.0 1,063.3 4.2 Economic management 952.0 1.7 237.0 1,189.0 15.2 2,170.1 16.9 2,407.2 3,359.1 13.4 Other 0.8 0.1 12.7 13.5 3.6 508.4 3.7 521.1 521.9 2.1 Total 5,732.1 39.1 5,516.5 11,248.6 97.1 13,832.4 136.2 19,348.9 25,081.0 100.0 Source: Environmentally Sustainable Development Shared Information and Technical Unit, and Research Advisory Staff. Appendix table 3B Resources devoted to research, by program objective, fiscal 1993 Total research costs Centrally approved projects RSB and Staff cost of total staff cost Research Support Staff cost departmental studies Total staff cost Budget Total Percent- expenditure Time Cost cost Time Cost Time Cost Cost age of Program objective category ($,000) (years) ($,000) ($,000) (years) (5,000) (years) ($,000) ($,000) total Adjustment, trade, and debt 816.8 10.7 1,705.4 2,522.2 19.8 3,151.9 30.6 4,857-3 5,674.1 21.4 Poverty reduction and human resource development 1,721.1 13.4 2,118.6 3,839.7 24.9 3,953.9 38.2 6,072.5 7,793.6 29.4 Private and public sector reform 811.3 12.0 1,900.9 2,712.1 16.9 2,688.3 28.9 4,589.1 5,400.4 20.4 Financial intermediation 229.1 0.2 33.4 262.5 2.7 433.5 2.9 466.9 695.9 2.6 Environment and forestry 511.1 2.0 322.6 833.7 10.3 1,629.2 12.3 1,951.8 2,462.9 9.3 Natural resources 25.9 0.7 117.6 143.5 2.6 409.7 3.3 527.3 553.2 2.1 Basic infrastructure and urban development 344.9 0.9 141.5 486.4 1.9 303.3 2.8 444.7 789.7 3.0 Economic management 797.6 3.3 5213 1,318.9 11.2 1,772.1 14.4 2,293.4 3,091.0 11.7 Other 11.6 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.3 47.6 0.3 47.6 59.2 0.2 Total 5,269.4 43.2 6,861.2 12,130.6 90.6 14,389.4 133.8 21,250.6 26,520.0 100.0 Source: Environmentally Sustainable Development Shared Information and Technical Unit, and Research Advisory Staff. 44 Appendix table 4A External funding for research, by program objective, fiscal 1992 Cost Percentage Program objective category ($,000) of total Adjustment, trade, and debt 165.8 6.1 Poverty reduction and human resource development 5003 18.5 Private and public sector reform 430.4 15.9 Financial intermediation 32.0 1.2 Environment and forestry 866.7 32.0 Natural resources 52.4 1.9 Basic infrastructure and urban development 411.5 15.2 Economic management 1.5 0.1 Other 247.2 9.1 Total 2,707.7 100.0 Source: Environmentally Sustainable Development, Shared Information and Technical Unit, and Research Advisory Staff. Appendix table 4B External funding for research, by program objective, fiscal 1993 Cost Percentage Program objective category ($,000) of total Poverty reduction and human resource development 810.0 14.7 Women in development 206.5 3.7 Private sector development 1,222.9 22.2 Environmentally sustainable development 2,398.2 43.5 Economic management 873.5 15.9 Total 5,511.2 100.0 Source: Environmentally Sustainable Development, Shared Information and Technical Unit, and Research Advisory Staff. 45 Appendix table SA External funding for research, by management unit, fiscal 1992 Cost Percentage Deprtment/region ($,000) of total Development Economics International Economics 14.1 0.5 Country Economics 337.6 12.5 Sector Policy and Research Agriculture and Rural Development 154.8 5.7 Environment 801.9 29.6 Infrastructure and Urban Development 759.7 28.1 Industry and Energy 56.3 2.1 Population and Human Resources 267.3 9.9 Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office 75.2 2.8 CFSPS 240.9 8.9 Total 2,707.7 100.0 Source: Environmentally Sustainable Development, Shared Information and Technical Unit, and Research Advisory Staff. Appendix table 5B External funding for research, by management unit, fiscal 1993 Cost Percentage Department/region ($,000) of total Development Economics International Economics 238.2 4.3 Country Economics 1,556.5 28.2 Subtotal 1,794.7 32.6 Sectoral vice presidencies Agriculture and Rural Development 349.4 6.3 Environment 1,620.0 29.4 Transportation, Water, and Urban Development 1,000.6 18.2 Financial Sector Development 238.2 4.3 Industry and Energy 95.3 1.7 Private Sector Development 47.6 0.9 Education and Social Policy 190.6 3.5 Population, Health, and Nutrition 142.9 2.6 Subtotal 3,684.7 66.9 Others 31.8 0.6 Total 5,511.2 100.0 Source: Environmentally Sustainable Development, Shared Information and Technical Unit, and Research Advisory Staff. Appendix table 6A Research Support Budget-funded research starts, by size of project, fiscal 1988-93 Fiscal 1988 Fiscal 1989 Fiscal 1990 Fiscal 1991 Fiscal 1992 Fiscal 1993 Number Cost Number Cost Number Cost Number Cost Number Cost Number Cost Size of project of projects ($,000) of projects ($,000) of projects ($,000) of projects ($,000) of projects ($,000) of projects ($,000) $0-$20,000 17 172.7 38 513.8 47 572.4 33 4323 34 509.0 32 478.8 $20,001-$100,000 11 523.7 15 1,093.2 20 1,331.3 17 1,092.4 27 1,285.7 58 2,183.7 $100,001-$300,000 7 1,379.5 10 1,926.8 8 1,329.2 11 1,864.7 12 2,0513 4 730.0 $300,001-$999,999 1 551.9 1 415.4 4 1,918.6 3 1,200.0 1 409.3 2 1,055.5 Total 36 2,627.8 64 3,949.2 79 5,151.5 64 4,589.3 74 4,2553 96 4,448.0 Source: Research Advisory Staff. Appendix table 6B Research Support Budget-funded research starts (excluding research preparation), by size of project, fiscal 1988-93 Fiscal 1988 Fiscal 1989 Fiscal 1990 Fiscal 1991 Fiscal 1992 Fiscal 1993 Number Cost Number Cost Number Cost Number Cost Number Cost Number Cost Size of project of projects ($,000) of projects ($,000) of projects ($,000) of projects (M000) of projects (,000) of projects ($,000) S0-$100,000 34 509.0 33 1,417.1 38 1,643.5 29 1,286.5 47 1,611.9 79 2,515.6 $100,001-$300,000 27 1,285.7 10 1,926.8 8 1,329.2 11 1,864.7 12 2,0513 4 730.0 5300,001-5999,999 12 2,051.3 1 415.4 4 1,918.6 3 1,200.0 1 409.3 2 1,055.5 Total 73 409.3 44 3,759.3 50 4,891.3 43 4,351.1 60 4,072.5 85 4,301.1 Source: Research Advisory Staff. 47 Appendix table 7A Research Support Budget-funded research, by program objectives, fiscal 1992 Total Remaining Project authori- Fiscal 1992 authori- Program objective/title number Key a/ Dept. zat ion expenses b/ zation Adjustment, trade, and debt Macroeconomic aspects of foreign exchange markets in developing countries 67530 R 0 CEC 265.0 79.6 0.0 Macroeconomics of public sector deficits 67531 R C CEC 315.5 39.5 0.0 Industrial reforms and productivity in Chinese enterprise 67538 R 0 CEC 409.6 137.6 63.1 Reform dilemmas and strategies in agriculture in socialist countries 67548 R C AGR 60.0 0.0 0.0 Regulations against unfair imports: Effects on developing countries 67552 R C CEC 159.0 0.0 0.0 The impact of EC 1992 and trade integration in selected Mediterranean countries 67564 R C CEC 89.2 28.9 0.0 Dissemination funds for the trade liberalization project (RPO 67331) 67599 D C LA1 90.0 23.8 0.0 Implications of agricultural policy reform for developing countries 67611 R C AGR 230.8 83.3 0.0 The political economy of structural adjustment 67637 R 0 CEC 248.9 146.2 7.5 Managing labor markets in transitional socialist economies 67640 P C CEC 18.8 0.0 0.0 Dissemination-a comparative study of the political economy of agricultural pricing policies 67646 D C CEC 18.5 5.0 0.0 Cost of protection index 67649 R 0 IEC 98.1 42.7 30.2 Visiting research fellow-Tatsuo Hatta 67651 V C CEC 29.8 15.9 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Jeremy Bulow 67653 V C IEC 28.5 0.0 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Leonardo Leiderman 67654 V C CEC 29.1 25.0 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Csaba Csald 67655 V C AGR 38.4 38.1 0.0 Equipment prices and trade policy for developing country manufacturing industries 67661 R 0 CEC 56.0 25.4 30.6 import license auctions in trade liberalization: An empirical study 67662 P C CEC 14.7 14.7 0.0 Assessing the Mexico-United States free trade agreement 67665 R 0 LA2 249.1 189.0 60.0 Ucense prices and rent-sharing in the multi-fibre arrangement 67669 R 0 IEC 86.5 69.6 10.5 Commodity exports and real income in Africa 67670 R 0 CEC 131.6 64.1 67.5 Measurement of commodity price volatility 67673 R C IEC 43.9 43.9 0.0 Design of tariff reform: Theory, evidence, and implications 67677 R 0 CEC 19.0 19.3 0.0 Industrial restructuring and reform in three Chinese cities and center-local fiscal and financial relations in China 67686 P C AS3 10.0 10.2 0.0 Enterprise behavior and economic reforms: A comparative study in Central and Eastern Europe 67699 R 0 CEC 409.3 91.6 317.8 The collapse of Soviet growth and the prospect of recovery 67701 P C CEC 11.7 11.4 0.0 Growth and productivity in developing countries 67709 R C INV 20.0 20.0 0.0 Volume on industrial competition, productivity, and trade regimes 67710 D 0 CEC 57.0 35.0 22.0 New dimensions in regional integration 67712 R C CEC 54.0 53.6 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Sebastian Edwards 67713 V 0 LAC 0.0 0.0 31.4 Effectiveness of credit policies in East Asian and other countries 67719 P C CEC 10.0 10.0 0.0 Macroeconomic policy formulation for the transition from planned to market economies 67721 P 0 CEC 15.0 15.0 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Charles Jebuni 67726 V 0 RAD 21.8 24.3 0.0 Dealing with capital inflows 67729 D C CEC 34.0 33.7 0.0 The labor market in transitional socialist economies 67730 R 0 EDI 290.0 54.3 218.5 An evaluation of the effectiveness of pre-shipment inspection on trade, capital flight, and customs and other revenue problems in developing countries 67734 R 0 IEC 143.0 50.9 90.0 Accelerated growth strategies: Ghana 67735 D C AF4 15.0 0.0 0.0 Target zones and real exchange rates in developing countries 67738 R 0 CEC 39.0 9.0 30.0 3,859.7 1,510.7 979.0 Poverty reduction Testing for systematic differences in initial and final project evaluation 67515 R C IEC 98.0 0.1 0.0 Poverty and the social dimensions of structural adjustment in C8te dIvoire 67526 R C AFT 100.0 7.7 0.0 Poverty, growth, and adjustment in Pakistan 67529 R C PHR 136.1 0.0 0.0 The effects of the liberalization of the grain market on smallholders in Southern Malawi 67591 R C AF6 50.0 26.0 0.0 Policy analysis and poverty: Applicable methods and case studies, phase l-South Asia's experience 67596 R C PHR 120.0 54.5 0.0 The economics of nonmarket transfers in less developed countries 67624 R C PHR 160.0 58.6 0.0 The analysis of public expenditures incidence: Understanding and characterizing incidence at one point 67642 R C CEC 19.0 0.0 0.0 Urban poverty in the context of structural adjustment 67647 P C INU 10.0 0.0 0.0 Drought insurance 67650 P C AGR 8.0 0.0 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Kenneth H. Hill 67681 V C PHR 29.2 24.5 0.0 48 Appendix table 7A Research Support Budget-funded research, by program objectives, fiscal 1992 Total Remaining Project authori- Fiscal 1992 authori- Program objective/title number Key al Dept. zation r-penses b/ zation Food security consumption smoothing via storage and seasonal price instability in Africa 67688 P C ACR 10.0 10.1 0.0 Data analysis for development policy 67703 D 0 PHR 92.0 34.9 57.1 Targeting public expenditures for poverty alleviation 67708 D C CEC 20.0 202 0.0 Macroeconomic adjustment and poverty relief: Role of social policy and household behavior 67714 R 0 PHR 18.0 83 9.8 Labor market dynamics during the transition of a socialist economy 67720 R 0 CEC 156.0 28.9 131.0 Visiting research fellow-Binayak Sen 67727 V 0 RAD 13.7 17.8 0.0 Household welfare of agriculture policy reform in Malawi 67746 R 0 AF6 87.0 6.3 70.5 Management of drought risks in rural areas 67751 R 0 AGR 98.3 0.0 98-3 1,225.3 297.8 366.7 Human resources development Women, public services, and income generation 67514 R C PHR 213.7 0.0 0.0 Education, growth, and inequality in Brazil 67561 R C CEC 155.0 35.0 0.0 The economic impact of fatal adult illness from AIDS and other causes in Sub-Saharan Africa 67571 R 0 PHR 591.4 56.0 65.5 Impediments to contraceptive use and fertility decline in different environments 67572 R 0 PHR 232.0 70.6 9.0 Determinants of nutritional and health outcomes in Indonesia and implications for health policy reform 67627 R 0 PHR 98.0 57.1 0.0 Fertility trends in Africa 67638 R C PHR 20.0 8.8 0.0 Causes of adult mortality in developing countries and Eastern Europe 67641 R C PHR 20.0 1.8 0.0 Household investment in human capital and utilization and benefits from social services 67644 R 0 PHR 500.0 130.6 431.4 Credit programs for the poor: Household and intra-household impact and program sustainability 67659 R 0 PHR 215.0 141.6 563 Labor market dynamics during the transition of a socialist economy 67663 P C CEC 9.6 0.0 0.0 The determinants and consequences of the placement of government programs in Indonesia 67674 R 0 AS5 142.5 114.6 27.8 Improving school effectiveness and efficiency in developing countries 67687 R 0 PHR 147.5 49.7 97.4 Evaluation of social sector investments 67690 R 0 PHR 175.0 68.2 106.8 Economic and policy determinants of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa 67691 R 0 AFT 150.0 49.9 100.1 Modeling future health trends and costs 67696 R C LA4 20.0 24.3 0.0 Nepal-primary and teacher training-improving equity for women 67698 R C SAl 20.0 20.0 0.0 Public financing of hospital care in Brazil-patterns of use, volume, and costs 67705 P 0 LAI 20.0 19.3 0.0 Human capital accumulation and economic growth: An empirical study 67711 R 0 PHR 50.0 25.0 25.0 Synergistic health effects from water supply and sanitation interventions 67725 R 0 INU 25.0 10.0 15.0 Gender differences in schooling decisions, employment, and earnings in Pakistan 67739 P 0 PHR 15.0 0.0 15.0 Cross-national, longitudinal analysis of the curriculum of secondary education, 1920-85 67740 R 0 PHR 30.0 0.0 30.0 2,849.7 882.6 979.4 Private and public sector reform Transport taxation and road user charges in Sub-Saharan Africa 67437 R C INU 70.0 7.0 0.0 Labor redundancy in the transportation sector 67521 R C INtU 189.0 0.0 0.0 Ex-post performance of divested state-owned enterprises 67542 R C CEC 317.6 12-2 0.0 Political economy and public management of state mining and oil companies 67605 R C AFT 60.0 6.0 0.0 Closed-end country funds-theoretical and empirical investigation 67607 R C IEC 51.0 143 0.0 The impact of financial reform 67613 R C CEC 962 34.9 0.0 Study on inter-firm and industry-government cooperation for technology development in Europe 67617 R C AST 9.5 0.0 0.0 Intellectual property rights protection and technology transfer through foreign direct investment 67619 R 0 CEl 67.0 31.1 18.9 Private sector development in Eastern Europe 67634 R C IEN 128.8 70.6 0.0 Electric power utility efficiency study, phase II 67645 R C IEN 100.0 46.1 0.0 Fiscal federalism issues in developing/transition economies 67656 P C CEC 7.5 6.4 0.0 Enterprise behavior and competitiveness 67658 R C EM4 20.0 18.0 0.0 The composition of public expenditures and economic performance 67684 P C CEC 15.0 14.4 0.0 Strengthening accountability in public services 67693 P C CEC 10.0 10.0 0.0 Regulations, institutions, and economic efficiency 67694 R 0 CEC 200.0 95.2 104.8 Corporate financial structures in developing countries 67704 R 0 CEI 107.8 45.4 62.0 49 Appendix table 7A Research Support Budget-funded research, by program objectives, fiscal 1992 Total Remaining Project authori- Fiscal 2992 authori- Program objective/title number Key a/ Dept. zation expenses b/ zation Revenue under uncertainty--Czechoslovakia in transition 67718 R 0 CEC 19.0 7.9 10.9 Economic consequences of war/peace transitions in Africa: Choices for public finance 67731 R 0 CEC 40.0 6.7 40.0 Welfare consequences of selling public enterprises 67736 D C CEC 35.0 35.1 0.0 Business and consumer services as a growth-promoting sector in the former Soviet Union 67743 R 0 CEC 40.0 0.0 40.0 Income security for old age 67745 R 0 CEC 100.0 0.1 99.9 Public goods, private goods, and social sector outcomes 67747 R 0 PHR 23.5 11.0 12.5 Income distribution, fiscal policy, political instability, and growth 67749 R 0 CEC 7.3 0.0 7.3 Explaining rapid growth: Chinese coastal provinces and Mexican maquiladoras 67750 R 0 IEN 123.0 10.0 113.0 1,837.2 482.3 509.3 Financial intermediation Japanese FDI in developing countries: Trends, determinants, and policies 67657 R C IEC 76.5 51.4 0.0 Financial linkage development under liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa 67660 P C IEN 63 2.9 0.0 Investment decision, capital market imperfections, and the effects of financial liberalization 67672 R C CEC 55.2 55.3 0.0 Financial linkages in Africa 67702 R C IEN 20.0 23.6 0.0 Central bank independence: Its political and institutional foundations and its economic effect 67707 R 0 CEC 22.0 11.1 10.9 Secondary market prices for developing country debt Data collection and initial analysis 67715 R 0 IEC 39.3 17.2 21.5 Center-local fiscal and financial relations 67723 P O AS3 10.0 9.9 0.0 Risk-weighted capital adequacy requirements: An application to developing country banks 67741 R 0 CEC 20.0 8.0 12.0 249-3 179-3 44.4 Environment and foretry Improved accounting of natural resources and the environment for more sustainable resource management 67543 R C ENV 100.0 82 0.0 Pollution and the choice of economic policy instruments in developing countries 67648 R 0 CEC 419.0 1773 191.0 Visiting research fellow-Gordon Hughes 67652 V C WDR 491 45.2 0.0 Environmental regulation and economic growth 67675 P C LA2 12.9 7.0 0.0 Forestry sector analysis 67689 P C AF4 183 17.7 0.0 India cotton pesticide immunity 67692 R C CEC 12.0 12.9 0.0 Economic growth and trade in Western Africa: Implications of the degradation of the vegetation cover, phase II 67697 R 0 CEC 184.0 126.4 58.1 Property rights, rent dissipation, and environmental degradation in the Brazilian Amazon 67724 R 0 LAT 225.0 96.0 129.0 World energy subsidies, the greenhouse effect, and government revenues 67728 R 0 CEC 38.9 11.0 28.4 Enterprise ownership and pollution 67744 R 0 ENV 39.6 11.7 24.6 1,098.8 513.5 431.0 Natural resources Practical framework for evaluating mineral payment/taxation schemes 67545 R C CEC 159.0 5.5 0.0 How do inadequate insurance markets affect commodity price stabilization schemes? 67706 R C IEC 19.2 19.1 0.0 Agricultural land policies, insecurity of property rights, and small farm productivity in selected areas in Latin America and the Caribbean 67742 P 0 AGR 11.0 0.0 11.0 189.2 24.6 11.0 Basic infrastructure and urban development Tunis and Rabat water demand study 67540 R C INU 19.9 0.0 0.0 The efficiency of urban land markets 67639 P C INU 15.0 0.0 0.0 Housing indicators for policymaking- An extensive international survey 67668 R C INU 330.0 239.9 0.0 Infrastructure bottlenecks, private provisions, and industrial productivity: Indonesia and Thai cities 67671 R 0 INU 370.0 118.3 352-5 Visiting research fellow-Simeon I. Ajayi 67678 V C AF4 57.7 55.3 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Anna Luiza Ozorio de Almeida 67679 V 0 LAT 34.9 22.1 0.0 Price and tax sensitivity of crude oil supplies 67683 P C IEC 6.9 6.8 0.0 The marginal productivity of infrastructure in developing countries 67695 R 0 INU 75.0 39.0 36.0 Analysis of the results from the extensive survey of housing indicators in 52 countries 67748 R 0 INU 40.0 0.0 40.0 949.4 481-3 428.5 50 Appendix table 7A Research Support Budget-funded research, by program objectives, fiscal 1992 Total Remaining Project authori- Fiscal 1992 authiori- Program objective/title number Key a/ Dept. zat ion arpenses b/ zation Economic management Macroeconomic policies, crisis, and growth in the long run 67399 R C LAT 2,500.0 198.1 0.0 Second international conference on African economic issues 67616 B C VPDEC 110.0 110.7 0.0 Accounting for CPEs in transition 67618 R C JEC 181.1 24.7 0.0 Latin American meetings of the Econometric Society 67628 B 0 LACVP 120.0 30.0 60.0 Book on inflation and stabilization process 67630 D C CEC 20.0 10.0 0.0 Investigating equipment investment and economic growth 67643 R C VPDEC 20.0 13.0 0.0 Operations and maintenance in developing countries 67664 P C LAC 10.6 7.7 0.0 Do national policies affect long-run growth? 67666 R 0 CEC 177.7 76.5 56.8 The international economic environment and productivity growth in industrial and developing countries 67667 R 0 IEC 100.0 67.7 27.4 Commodity prices and the macroeconomic policy mix in industrial countries 67676 R C IEC 18.5 18.0 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Sergei 1. Shatalov 67682 V C IEC 23.5 31.5 0.0 The economic impact of military expenditures 67685 R C CEC 20.0 14.9 0.0 Impact of market-oriented policy reforms on households in rural China 67716 R 0 PHR 592 7.7 51.5 Reestimation of China's national accounts and growth rates 67717 R 0 EA2 15.0 11.1 3.9 International conference on culture and development: An agenda for action in Sub-Saharan Africa 67722 D C AFT 19.5 19.5 0.0 World experience of trade liberalization conference 67732 D C EC3 20.0 20.4 0.0 Encouraging economic research in the Middle East and North Africa 67733 B 0 MNA 150.0 20.1 129.9 The macroeconomic situation in Eastern Europe-World Bank/IMF conference 67737 D C CEC 10.0 10.0 0.0 3,575.1 691.6 329.4 Research administration Research review and evaluation 67228 0 RAD 876.2 101.1 0.0 World Bank Economic Review 67357 D 0 RAD 5533 136.4 0.0 World Bank Research Observer 67361 D 0 RAD 226.0 96.0 0.0 World Bank Policy Research Bulletin and Development Briefs 67371 D 0 RAD 136.2 36.5 0.0 Visiting Research Fellow Program 67462 V 0 RAD 1,049.5 133 0.0 Annual Conference on Development Economics 67482 D 0 RAD 748.7 2843 0.0 3,589.9 667.6 0.0 Net adjustment 0.8 Total research support budget 19,423.4 5,732.3 4,078.7 a. R = research; P = research preparation D = research dissemination; B= capacity building; V = visiting research fellow; 0 = active; and C = closed. b. Projects with no expenses in fiscal 1992 typically started late or dosed early in the fiscal year. Source: Research Advisory Staff. 51 Appendix table 7B Research Support Budget-funded research, by program objective, fiscal 1993 Total Fiscal 1993 Remaining Project author- expenses author- Program objective/tille number Key at Department ization b/ ization Adjustment, trade, and debt Macroeconomic aspects of foreign exchange markets in developing countries 67530 R C PRDTM 265.0 0.0 0.0 The political economy of structural adjustment 67637 R C PRDTM 248.9 9.8 0.0 Cost of protection index 67649 R C IECIT 98.1 29.8 0.0 Equipment prices and trade policy for developing country manufacturing industries 67661 R C PRDTP 56.0 30.7 0.0 Assessing the Mexico-United States free trade agreement 67665 R C LA2CI 249.1 58.7 0.0 License prices and rent-sharing in the Multi-Fibre Arrangement 67669 R C IECIT 86.5 10.2 0.0 Commodity exports and real income in Africa 67670 R 0 PRDTP 131.6 46.9 20.0 Design of tariff reform: Theory, evidence, and implications 67677 R C PRDTP 19.0 0.0 0.0 Volume on industrial competition, productivity, and trade regimes 67710 D C PRDTP 57.0 22.5 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Sebastian Edwards 67713 V C LACCE 0.0 5A 0.0 Secondary market prices for developing country debt: Data collection and initial analysis 67715 R C IECDI 393 21.5 0.0 Macroeconomic policy formulation for the transition from planned to market economies 67721 P C PRDTM 15.0 0.0 0.0 An evaluation of the effectiveness of preshipment inspection on trade, capital flight, and customs, and other revenue problems of developing countries 67734 R 0 IECIT 143.0 81.0 9.0 Target zones and real exchange rates in developing countries 67738 D 0 PRDTM 39.0 30.5 0.0 Income distribution, fiscal policy, political instability, and growth 67749 R C PRDPE 7-3 7-3 0.0 External debt and burden sharing 67755 R 0 IECDI 30.0 27.0 3.0 Visiting research fellow-Jorge Quiroz 67760 V 0 LATAD 45-3 18.8 26.6 Foreign exchange auctions and exchange rate unification in Sub-Saharan Africa 67764 R C PRDTM 39.0 41.0 0.0 The African adjustment study 67767 R 0 PRDTM 40.0 39.3 0.0 Abandonment of the fixed exchange rate regime in Latin America 67771 R 0 LAICO 39.0 34.8 4.0 Exchange rate commitments and central bank independence 67777 R 0 PRDTM 18.0 11.9 6.0 Issues of stabilization in transition economies 67783 R C ECAVP 37-3 36.8 0.0 Understanding bilateral trade flows in East Asia 67786 R 0 PRDTP 30.0 19.8 102 Informational value of import license auctions: An empirical study 6791 R 0 PRDTP 99.6 19.5 79.8 Incentives and resource allocation in Indian agriculture 67804 R C PRDTP 8.0 8.1 0.0 The ruble shortage phenomenon in members of the ruble currency zone 67808 R 0 EC4C2 10.0 10.0 15.0 A deep-parameter approach to the real exchange rate and trade distortions 67809 R C PRDTP 27.0 252 0.0 Foreign direct investments in a macroeconomic framework 67815 R 0 IECDI 37.0 10.5 26.5 Antidumping: Follow-up on newly emerging issues 67816 R 0 PRDTP 25.0 12.1 19.0 Visiting research fellow-Yoshiyasu Ono 67817 V 0 PRDTM 19.8 25.0 0.0 Cusiana and the Colombian economy in the 1990s 67819 D 0 PRDTM 37.0 0.0 37.0 Regionalism and South Asia's trade 67822 R 0 SASVP 38.7 15.9 22.8 The effect of regionalism on trading prospects of LMICs 67843 R 0 IECAP 17.7 0.0 17.7 The effect of increased north-south trade on employment and the distribution of income in the north and south 67844 R 0 IECAP 17.7 0.0 17.7 2,070.7 709.9 314.2 Poverty redt0ion Credit programs for the poor- Household and intrahousehold impacts and program sustainability 67659 R 0 PHRWD 215.0 56.8 0.0 Evaluation of social sector investments 67690 R 0 LA2HR 175.0 31.0 79.6 Data analysis for development policy 67703 D C PRDPH 92.0 53.7 0.0 Macroeconomic adjustment and poverty relief roles of social policy and household behavior 67714 R C PRDPH 18.0 10.1 0.0 Impact of market-oriented policy reforms on households in rural China 67716 R 0 PRDPH 59.2 41.9 21.0 Visiting research fellow-Binayah Sen 67727 V C RAD 13.7 152 0.0 Household welfare effects of agriculture policy reform in Malawi 67746 R C AF6PH 87.0 32.9 0.0 Management of drought risks in rural areas 67751 R 0 AGRAP 98.3 85.2 13.0 Indigenous peoples and poverty in Latin America-an empirical analysis 67768 R C LATDR 40.0 32.1 0.0 Household responses to seasonal income fluctuations in rural India 67780 R C PRDPH 31.0 30.5 0.0 Poverty in India, 1950-90 67782 R 0 PRDPH 72.0 33.0 39.6 Spontaneous institutions and sustainable rural development in Africa 67788 R 0 AFTDR 20.0 10.0 10.0 Innovative self-targeting techniques: Do they improve incidence? 67814 R 0 MNIAG 39.7 27.0 12.7 Visiting research fellow-Richardo Paes de Barros 67818 V 0 PRDDR 19.2 8.5 0.0 LSMS product development 67820 P 0 PRDPH 15.0 2.0 13.0 Revision of the LSMS household-based agricultural activities survey module 67821 R 0 PRDPH 26.7 5.4 21-3 Rural poverty and agriculture in Mexico 67823 R 0 PRDTP 39.5 7.0 32.5 Welfare and institutions in Asia 67828 R 0 EA2DR 39.0 0.0 39.0 World Bank and UNDP strategies for reducing poverty: Comparisons in South and East Asia 67836 R 0 SA3DR 14.0 0.0 14.0 1,1143 482.4 295.7 Human resources development The economic impact of fatal adult illness from AIDS and other causes in Sub-Saharan Africa 67571 R 0 PRDPH 591.4 57.2 6.6 Impediments to contraceptive use and fertility decline in different environments 67572 R C PHRI-[N 232.0 0.9 0.0 Determinants of nutritional and health outcomes in Indonesia and implications for health policy reform 67627 R C PHRHN 98.0 0.0 0.0 52 Appendix table 7B Research Support Budget-funded research, by program objective, fiscal 1993 Total Fiscal 1993 Remaining Project author- expenses auwhor- Program objective/title number Key a/ Department ization b/ ization Household investment in human capital and utilization and benefits from social services 67644 R 0 PRDPH 500.0 130.7 1932 The determinants and consequences of the placement of government programs in Indonesia 67674 R C EA3PH 142.5 133 0.0 Improving school effectiveness and efficiency in developing countries 67687 R 0 PHREE 1472 74.9 20.0 Economic and policy determinants of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa 67691 R 0 PRDPH 150.0 89.8 10.0 Public financing of hospital care in Brazil-patterns of use, volume, and costs 67705 P C LAI IR 20.0 0.0 0.0 Human capital accumulation and economic growth: An empirical study 67711 R C PRDPH 50.0 25.5 0.0 Labor market dynamics during the transition of a socialist economy 67720 R 0 PRDTM 156.0 100.0 45.0 Synergistic health effects from water supply and sanitation interventions 67725 R C INUWS 25.0 11.0 0.0 The labor market in transitional socialist economies 67730 R 0 EDIEM 290.0 1183 103.5 Gender differences in schooling decisions, employment, and earnings in Pakistan 67739 P C SASVP 15.0 12.5 0.0 Cross-national, longitudinal analysis of the curriculum of secondary education, 1920-85 67740 R C PHREE 30.0 25.9 0.0 Income security for old age 67745 R C PRDFP 100.0 100-3 0.0 Public goods, pnvate goods, and social sector outcomes 67747 R C PHRHN 23.5 113 0.0 The dynamic interrelationship between nutrition morbidity and labor productivity in Rwanda 67752 R 0 PRDPH 38.5 30.6 8.5 Visiting research fellow-Anat Levy 67756 V C PRDTP 29.0 27.8 0.0 Age-related barriers to the acquisition of literacy 67759 P C SA1PH 7.0 7.0 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Robert H. Cassen 67761 V C PRDDR 83 14.8 0.0 The evolution of labor markets and the social safety net in Central and Eastern Europe 67762 R C EC2HR 38.9 27.5 0.0 Gender-specific and age cohort-specific education stock for developing countries 67769 R C PHREE 18.5 18.0 0.0 Labor markets and employment issues: Kenya and C8te d'Ivoire 67773 R 0 AFRCE 38.5 12.5 28.0 Workshop on associational life and economic development in Africa 67776 D C AYTIM 143 143 0.0 Public-private interactions in the health sector in developing countries 67795 R 0 MN2PH 30.0 30.0 0.0 Private interhousehold transfers in Poland, 1986-91 67796 R 0 PRDPH 40.0 22.9 20.0 The costs and outputs of Turkish higher education 67805 R 0 EMTHR 19.0 0.0 19.0 International conference on culture and development in Africa 67806 D C ESD 10.0 10.0 0.0 Training, technology capability, and firm-level productivity 67811 R 0 PSDPR 38.8 10.0 28.8 Female labor market participation and child welfare in Africa 67812 R 0 PRDPH 24.0 10.0 14.0 Secondary education in the newly industrializing countries of Asia 67827 R 0 ESP 40.0 6.5 34.0 Measunng the impact of user fee increases: The second round of the Indonesian resource mobilization study 67830 R 0 EA3PH 305.5 0.0 305.5 Enterprise training strategies and productivity: A cos-national study 67839 R 0 PSDPR 1952 0.0 195.2 Effects of fertility and infant and child mortality 67845 R 0 PHN 35.0 0.0 35.0 The impact of labor market policies and institutions on economic performance 67846 R 0 PRDTP 150.0 0.0 150.0 3,651.0 1,013.5 1,216.2 Pnate and public sector reform Industrial reforms and productivity in Chinese enterprise 67538 R C PRDTM 409.6 43.7 0.0 Intellectual property rights protection and technology transfer through foreign direct investment 67619 R C CELED 67.0 18.9 0.0 Regulations, institutions, and economic efficiency 67694 R C PRDFP 200.0 105.9 0.0 Enterprise behavior and economic reforms: A comparative study in Central and Eastern Europe 67699 R 0 PRDTM 4453 2075 149.0 Corporate financial structures in developing countries 67704 R C CEIED 107.8 621 0.0 Business and consumer services as a growth-promoting sector in the former Soviet Union 67743 R C PRDTM 40.0 40.0 0.0 Explaining rapid growth: Chinese coastal provinces and Mexican maquiladoras 67750 R 0 IENIN 123.0 93.0 20.0 State enterprise behavior in Poland during the economic transformation program 67758 R C EC2PL 25.0 723 0.0 Strengthening accountability in public services 67765 R 0 PRDFP 96.0 38.7 57.4 Survey of service firms in St. Petersburg 67789 R C PRDTM 15.0 14.9 0.0 Tourism in small island economies 6780 P 0 LA3C2 15.0 10.0 6.6 Conference on the institutional foundations of regulation and private investment in utilities 67813 D C PRDFP 18.0 18.0 0.0 Reforms and productivity in Chinese enterprise II 67824 R 0 PRDTM 40.0 15.0 25.0 Enterprise transformation in Poland 67825 R 0 CEIED 25.0 0.0 25.0 Visiting research fellow-Luis A. Sanchez 67834 V 0 PRDDR 0.0 0.0 Informal sector in Africa 67838 P 0 AF6CO 13.0 0.0 13.0 The Russian enterpnse in transition 67840 R 0 PRDTM 38.8 15.0 23.8 Corporate governance in Central Europe 67842 R 0 PRDTM 236.0 0.0 236.0 The welfare consequences of divestiture in Bangladesh 67847 P 0 PRDFP 15.0 0.0 15.0 1,929.5 705.1 570.8 Fina"cal intermediation Central bank independence: Its political and institutional foundations and its economic effects 67707 R C PRDTM 22.0 6.6 0.0 Risk-weighted capital adequacy requirements: An application to developing country banks 67741 R C PRDFP 20.0 12.0 0.0 Financial integration and development in Sub-Saharan Africa 67774 R 0 lENIN 148.8 62.8 86.0 Visiting research fellow-L. Bilcerowicz 67793 V 0 FSD 0.0 0.0 53 Appendix table 7B Research Support Budget-funded research, by program objective, fiscal 1993 Total Fiscal 1993 Remaining Project author- expenses author- Program objective/title number Key a/ Department ization b/ ization Conference on portfolio investment in developing countries 67794 D C IECDI 38.0 39.7 0.0 Market structure and market outcomes: The Mexican stock exchange 67797 R 0 CEIED 34.1 15.5 18.6 Equity portfolio flows to developing countries 67801 R 0 IECDI 80.0 44.0 37.0 Visiting research fellow-Jean-Philipe Platteau 67807 V 0 AGRAP 17.3 18.6 0.0 Stock market development and financial intermediary growth 67837 R 0 PRDFP 91.0 0.0 91.0 External financing in emerging markets: An analysis of market responses 67849 R 0 IECDI 15.0 0.0 15.0 4662 199.1 247.6 Environment and forestry Pollution and the choice of economic policy instruments in developing countries 67648 R 0 PRDPE 419.0 150.8 37.5 Visiting research fellow-Ann Luiza Oozorio de Almeida 67679 V C LATEN 34.9 27.6 0.0 Economic growth and trade in Western Africa: Implications of the degradation of the vegetation cover-phase II 67697 R C PRDTP 184.0 57.0 0.0 Property rights, rent dissipation, and environmental degradation in Brazilian Amazon 67724 R 0 LATEN 225.0 79-3 24.1 Enterprise ownership and pollution 67744 R C PRDEI 39.6 24.0 0.0 Economic shocks and the global environment 67775 R 0 DPG 27.0 24.2 3.0 The economics of clean technology diffusion in developing countries 67779 P 0 PRDEI 14.9 14.9 0.0 Econometric analysis of pollution abatement costs 67781 R C PRDEI 39.9 33.7 0.0 Conference on environmental economics 67785 R C LATEN 40.0 32.8 0.0 1,024.3 444.2 64.7 Natural resources Agricultural land policies, insecurity of property rights, and small farm productivity in selected areas in LAC 67742 P C AGRAP 11.0 11.0 0.0 Urbanization, agricultural development and land allocation 67763 P C AGRAP 12.0 11.5 0.0 Visiting research fellow-Z. Lerman 67833 V 0 AGRAP 0.0 0.0 23.0 22.5 0.0 Basic infrastructure and urban development Infrastructure bottlenecks, private provisions, and industrial productivity: Indonesia and Thai cities 67671 R 0 INURD 370.0 103.3 155.7 The marginal productivity of infrastructure in developing countries 67695 R C INUDR 75.0 39.4 0.0 Analysis of the results from the extensive survey of housing indicators in 52 countries 67748 R C INURD 40.0 41.2 0.0 Institutional analysis and structured learning in the water supply sector 67754 P C INUWS 15.0 0.0 0.0 Visiting research fellow-R. Prud'homme 67757 V C INUTD 40.0 32.2 0.0 Enhancing urban productivity: Determinants of optimal expenditure on infrastructure, human resources, and consumption of public goods 67766 R C ECICO 39.8 37.0 0.0 Infrastructure inadequacies in Mexico 67778 P C LA2C1 10.0 9.9 0.0 Infrastructure inadequacies in Mexico 67798 R C LA2C1 39.6 36.8 0.0 629.5 299.8 155.7 Economic management Latin American meetings of the Econometric Society 67628 B 0 LACVP 120.0 30.0 30.0 Do national policies affect long-run growth? 67666 R C PRDTM 177.7 65.9 0.0 The international economic environment and productivity growth in industrial and developing countries 67667 R C IECDR 100.0 26.4 0.0 Reestimation of China national accounts and growth rates 67717 R C EA2DR 15.0 3.9 0.0 Revenue under uncertainty-Czechoslovakia in transition 67718 R C PRDPE 19.0 10.6 0.0 Center-local fiscal and financial relations 67723 P 0 EA2DR 10.0 0.0 0.0 World energy subsidies, the greenhouse effect, and government revenues 67728 R C PRDPE 38.9 26.5 0.0 Economic consequences of war/peace transitions in Africa: Choices for public finance 67731 R 0 PRDPE 40.0 25.6 5.0 Encouraging economic research in the Middle East and North Africa 67733 R 0 MNAVP 150.0 127.7 0.0 Visiting reseach fellow-Changyong Rhee 67753 V C PRDDR 31.0 31.2 0.0 Subnational finance in transition economies: Broadening the framework for analysis 67770 R 0 PRDPE 19.0 0.0 18.5 Visiting research fellow-Salvador Valdes 67772 V C RAD 27.0 31.0 0.0 Determinants of project performance 67784 P C OEDD2 15.0 11.9 0.0 Conference on "I low Do National Policies Affect Long-run Growth" 67787 D C PRDTM 30.2 31.2 0.0 Seminar on economic reform in developing countries: Issues for the 1990s 67790 D 0 RAD 20.0 16.6 10.0 Good policy, good luck, or good location? 67792 P 0 AF4DR 15.0 11.4 0.0 Construction of an integrated data base software for FSU economic accounts 67799 R C PRDTP 13.3 13.3 0.0 Evaluation of applied macroeconomic models for developing countries 67802 R C PRDTM 27.5 27.3 0.0 Economic consequences of democratic change in developing countries 67810 R C PHN 39.4 26.0 0.0 Patterns of growth: Further work on national policies and long-run growth 67826 R 0 PRDTM 40.0 0.0 40.0 Technology spillovers, agglomeration, and foreign direct investment 67829 R 0 PRDTP 25.0 14.6 10.5 Agricultural marketing in the former Soviet Union 67831 R 0 ECAVP 22.5 0.0 22.5 The economic role of the state in nations of the former Soviet Union 67832 R 0 EC4C2 25.0 12.0 13.0 African economic research consortium, phase III 67835 R 0 AFRCE 750.0 150.0 600.0 A critical evaluation of the quality of state intervention in Turkey: A four industry comparison 67841 R 0 PSDPR 56.5 0.0 56.5 1,826.9 693.2 805.9 Research administration 54 Appendix table 7B Research Support Budget-funded research, by program objective, fiscal 1993 Total Fiscal 1993 Remaining Project author- expenses author- Program objective/title number Key a/ Department ization b iation Research review and evaluation 67228 0 RAD 8762 82.3 0.0 World Bank Economic Review 67357 0 RAD 553.3 133.7 0.0 World Bank Research Observer 67361 0 RAD 226.0 102.4 0.0 World Bank Policy Research Bulletin and Development Briefs 67371 0 RAD 136.2 65.6 0.0 Visiting Research Fellow Program 67462 0 RAD 1,049.5 0.6 0.0 Annual Conference on Development Economics 67482 0 RAD 748.7 303.6 0.0 3,589.9 688.1 0.0 Net adjustment 11.6 Total research support budget 16,325.1 5,269.4 3,670.8 a. R = research; P = research preparation; D = research dissemination; V = visiting research fellow; 0= active; and C= closed. b. Projects with no expenses in fiscal 1993 typically started late or closed early in the fiscal year. Source: Research Advisory Staff. 55 Appendix table 8 The World Bank Visiting Research Fellows Program: Research fellows at the Bank during fiscal 1992-93 Name Nationality Research topic Simeon lbidayo Ajayi Nigerian Capital flight and external debt in Nigeria Anna Ozorio de Alrneida Brazilian Sustainable settlement in the Brazilian Amazon Richardo Paes de Barros Brazilian Inequality, poverty, and social spending in Brazil Robert H. Cassen British Implications of trends in manufacturing development for human resource policies Csaba Csaki Hungarian Agricultural transition in Eastern Europe and other reforming socialist economies Sebastian Edwards Chilean A comparative cross-country analysis of reforms in Latin America in the post-debt crisis period Tatsuo Hatta Japanese The design and implementation of tariff reform and economic integration Kenneth H. Hill British The demography of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Gordon Hughes British Economic reform, industrial efficiency, and the environment Charles D. Jebuni Ghanaian Accelerated growth study for Ghana Leonardo Leiderman Israeli Transition from stabilization to growth Anat Levy Israeli Efficiency and equity; employment and growth in the labor market Yoshiyasu Ono Japanese Theoretical industrial organization, international trade and finance, macro dynamics Jean-Philipe Platteau French Village credit and insurance mechanisms Remy Prudhomme French Institutional decentralization and motorization issues in developing countries Jorge Quiroz Chilean Analysis of current price stabilization and neutralization of the volatility arising from international markets Binayak Sen Bangladeshi Poverty in Asia Sergei 1. Shatalov Russian Future Russian economic involvement in the developing world Pravin Kantilal Trivedi Indian Investment and pricing policies for perennial tree crop producers in developing countries Salvador Valdes Chilean Pension economics and social security Source: Research Advisory Staff.