AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS WORLDBANKGROUP Q GFDRR EROPE ER AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA) RI5K PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $44.5 billion* L Slove *a a S lovenia's population and economy remainder generated by industry, are exposed to earthquakes and and agriculture making a small floods, with earthquakes posing contribution. Slovenia's per capita the greater risk of a high impact, lower GDP was $21,500. probability event. The model results for present-day risk shown in this risk pro- This map displays GDP by province file are based on population and gross in Slovenia, with greater color domestic product (GDP) estimates for saturation indicating greater GD P 2015. The estimated damage caused by within a province. The blue circles historical events is inflated to 2015 US indicate the risk of experiencing dollars. floods and the orange circles the risk of earthquakes in terms of nor- Just over half of Slovenia's population malized annual average of affected lives in rural environments. The coun- GDP. The largest circles represent try's GDP was approximately US$44.5 the greatest normalized risk- The billion in 2015, with close to 70 percent risk is estimated using flood and derived from services, most of the earthquake risk models. Th e tablIe dis plays the p rovi nces atoIavk TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative terms, as shown in the table, the province at greatest NorpIkak ugovzodna Stovenija CROATIA risk of floods is Spodnjeosavska,a NtajtMkak L EARTHQUAKE and t ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) earthquakes is Osrednjeslovenska. In absolute terms, the province at Spodnieposavska 8 Osrednjeslovenska 10 test risk ofb Zasayska 9 Spodnjeposavska 4 gea os flosa Savinjska 7 Gorenjska 3 Pomurska 7 Notranjsko-kraska 2 Annual Average of Affected GDP GOP (billions of Podravska 3 Goriska 2 Osrednjeslovenska 3 Savinjska 2 A AI EA 10 There is a high correlation Goriska 2 jugovzodna 1 F (r=0.95) between the Gorenjska 2 Slovenija EARTHQUAKE population and GDP of a Jugovzodna 0 Zasavska 1 province. Slovenija Obalno-kraska I Koroska 0 Podravska 1 0 Negligible Slov niaWORLDBANKGROUP DR ROPE ANDEENTRAL A51A(ECA) E|G he worst flood in Slovenia year event is as large as that of a 100- since it gained its indepen- year event, and the annual average of dence in 1991 occurred in affected GDP is dominated by events 2012. It affected more than 10,000 that happen relatively frequently. people and caused almost $300 mil- If the impact of a 100-year event is lion in damage. Flooding in 2005 gen- much greater than that of a 10-year erated about $6 million in damage. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual HUNGARY This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual average population Pod a of 10 years (white) and 100 years affected by flooding in Slovenia is (black). The horizontal line across the about 70,000 and the annual average bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $1 billion. Within GDP affected by floods. the various provinces, the 10- and 100-year impacts do not differ much, When a flood has a 10-year return so relatively frequent floods have LobAn period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages. srednjeslovenska occurrence of a flood of that magni- tude or greater is 10 percent per yearp A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of Iugovz n vnija CROATIA time, a flood of that magnitude will, Notranjsko-kraska on average, occur once every 100 Oba[no-kraska years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every Affected GOP (%)for 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a 10 and 100-year return periods flood of any return period to occur One block = 5% 30 more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)15 to happen at all over a long period of ADRiA TI SEA Annual average 5 time. If the 10- and 100-year bars are the C9 10-year 100-year same height, then the impact of a 10- So e i Slov niaWORLDBANKGROUP GF @AkR RROP EL RS[ AN ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA) PROFILE S lovenia's worst earthquake years, or not to happen at all over a since it gained its independence long period of time. in 1991 took place in 2004, with a magnitude of 5.2, and caused over If the 10- and 100-year bars are the $10 million in damage. Slovenia was same height, then the impact of a 10- also affected by a 1976 earthquake in year event is as large as that of a 100- Friuli, Italy, which left 13,000 people year event, and the annual average of homeless in Slovenia's Soca Valley affected GDP is dominated by events and caused much damage there. that happen relatively frequently. Ifthe impact of a 100-year event isAUSTRIA This map depicts the impact of much greater than that of a 10-year earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, event, then less frequent events make represented as percentages of their larger contributions to the annual av- annual average GDPs affected, with erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a greater color saturation indicating province's annual affected GDP seems higher percentages. The bar graphs small, less frequent and more intense represent GDP affected by earth- events can still have large impacts. quakes with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population The horizontal line across the bars affected by earthquakes in Slovenia is also shows the annual average of GDP about 80,000 and the annual average affected by earthquakes. affected GDP about $2 billion. The annual averages of fatalities and When an earthquake has a 10-year capital losses caused by earthquakes return period, it means the probabil- are about 50 and about $200 million, ity of occurrence of an earthquake respectively. The fatalities and capital of that magnitude or gregater is 10 losses caused by more intense, less percent per year A 100-year earth- frequent events can e substantial- quake has a probability of occurrence ly larger than the annual averages. Obano-kraski of percent per year. Theis mreans For example, an earthquake with that over a long period of time, an a 0.4 percent annual probability of Affected GP for earthquake of that magnitude will, on occurrence (a 250-year return period 10 and 100-year return periods average, o ccu r on ce eve ry 10 0 yea rs. event) could cause about 1,000 One [ock = 10% It does not mean a 100-year earth- fatalities and $4 billion in capital loss quake will occur exactly once every (about 8 percent ofGDP). Annual Average of Affected GOP 40 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a o sEA i20 Annual average an earthquake of any return period to occur more than once in the same respctiely10-year 100-year year, or to ap pear in cons ecutive Slov niaWORLDBANKGROUP E)|GFDRR "fAN CENTRAL A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest .. annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Obalno kraska 3 avinjska 9 Sodnjeposavska 0 riska 3 loss occurs in Osrednjeslovenska, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. lo-, N.OtJL)EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP 1 affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 25 180 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different 160 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 0 10GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 1 120 2080 15 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Slo- Z 100 venia had experienced a 100-year return period flood event 10 in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $5 60 Ybillion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same 5 40 type of event would range from about $7 billion to about 2015 20$20 billion. If Slovenia had experienced a 250-year earth- 2015 quake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been S10 02 50 10 about $20 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same Return period (years) Return peaod (yors) type of event would range from about $40 billion to about 10 2 1 4 1 1 $150 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and Probability (%) robabii the increase in exposed assets. All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D.Guha-Sapir, R.Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and 1. Daniell and A. Schae- fer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.