. PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) IDENTIFICATION/CONCEPT STAGE Report No.: PIDC65311 . Project Name Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria Region AFRICA Country Nigeria Financing Instrument IPF Project ID P160114 Borrower Name Federal Ministry of Finance Implementing Agency National Bureau of Statistics(NBS), earlier Federal Office of Statistics Environmental Category C - Not Required Date PID Prepared 16-Sep-2016 Estimated Date of Approval 04-Nov-2016 Initiation Note Review The review did authorize the preparation to continue Decision . I. Introduction and Context Country Context In recent years, the World Bank has produced a detailed analysis on the challenges of economic growth, jobs creation in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, and the changing dynamics of employment in Nigeria. This analysis suggests that Northern Nigeria is very different from the rest of the country in a number of key characteristics. In recent years, conflicts and armed violence are increasingly affecting Northern Nigeria, particular the North East region. The violence between Boko Haram and government forces in 2014 escalated into a National State of Emergency in May 2014. It is estimated that the conflict has directly affected over 6 million people, forcibly displacing over one million people, and making another four million people food insecure. Thus, there is an increasing demand to investigate how the ongoing conflicts is affecting the lives of the poor in the Northern region. Unfortunately, a comprehensive analysis of the Northern regions and their specific characteristics has not been possible because of the limited availability of data and the difficulty in collecting it with regularity in conflict affected areas. This grant is meant to help the Nigerian government monitor the conflicts’ impact and the progress of reconstruction using information that can be reproduced frequently. The support is crucial for Nigeria at this particular moment because the government is trying to address the conflict-generated humanitarian crisis and the underlying development challenges that may be contributing to the conflicts’ escalation. Sectoral and Institutional Context Page 1 of 4 This project develops a Poverty and Conflict monitoring system that can provide quick and reliable information on conflict affected areas. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of Nigeria requested technical support for collecting data on households in conflict affected areas, assistance to put in place a Poverty and Conflict monitoring system that can provide quick and reliable information on conflict affected areas with high frequency, and the ability to obtain feedback from their beneficiaries and to measure the projects’ effectiveness. The Poverty and Conflict monitoring system will use the third round of the General Household Survey (GHS) as a baseline because it includes a conflict module and an oversampling of conflict affected areas. The team designed a conflict module and piloted it in two conflict affected states in November 2015. The World Bank has a long history of collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics and, together with other development partners, has been taking steps to help enhance Nigeria's statistical capacity. In particular, through the Statistics for Results Facility (SRF) catalytic fund, the Bank supported NBS and six selected States to strengthen the coordination and enhance data sharing between the Federal and States levels. The World Bank has also supported NBS in several other efforts, including the organization of the 2010 Harmonized Nigerian Living Standard Survey and the implementation of the first and second rounds of the General Household Surveys (GHS)-panel. The GHS-panel collects information from approximately 5,000 households every 2 to 3 years and allows for the analysis of welfare dynamics over time. The NBS has completed the first two rounds and the third round is currently underway (2015/16). The proposed project selects a sample of households living in conflict affected areas extracted from the GHS-panel survey’s round 3 and uses it as a baseline for piloting a Poverty and Conflict monitoring system. This is constructed by calling sampled household via mobile phone every two to three months and asking them a set of questions about the conflict situation and in general about their socio economic situation: access to schools, hospitals, roads, status of their assets and so forth. This monitoring system builds on the recent experience of Listening to Africa project where it combined a baseline survey with subsequent interviews of selected respondents using mobile phones. This approach has shown to generate representative data of good quality, rapidly and at a low cost with flexibility. If executed well, it will be able to meet urgent data needs and to provide regular feedback on large scale programs. In Mali the same methodology has been used to collect data in conflict affected areas. Relationship to CAS/CPS/CPF The 2014 Country Partnership Strategy for Nigeria identified the limited availability of data and their lack of regularity as one big challenge the country is facing. According to the CPS, the lack of data, the weak monitoring and evaluation system contribute to undermine the quality of policy design and dialogue across all sectors and different levels of government. . II. Project Development Objective(s) Proposed Development Objective(s) The Proposed Development Objective is to increase National Bureau of Statistics capacity to collect data in conflict affected areasand to monitor with regularity the socio economic conditions of regions that are normally difficult to reach. The grant will also enable the Nigerian government, the World Bank and other agencies to investigate how ongoing conflicts, problems such as market fragmentation, low levels of basic service provision (e.g. education, health and infrastructures), price and climatic Page 2 of 4 shocks are affecting the poor. Key Results There are three key results expected from this grant. First, the project can improve NBS’s overall capacity to timely deliver policy relevant output and foster its capacity to implement and coordinate a number of complex tasks such as questionnaire design, sample selection, data collection and cleaning, data results reporting. Secondly, it can increase NBS’s capacity to respond to emergency requests for pilot data collection in difficult environments by making use of the most current data collection techniques. Finally, help NBS to maintain a monitoring system that can be easily adjusted to accommodate other emergencies. . III. Preliminary Description Concept Description IV. Safeguard Policies that Might Apply Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No TBD Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X . . V. Financing (in USD Million) Total Project Cost: 0.4 Total Bank Financing: 0 Financing Gap: 0 Financing Source Amount Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building 0.4 . . VI. Contact point . . World Bank Contact: M Abul Kalam Azad,Vasco Molini,M Abul Kalam Azad,Vasco Molini Title: Economist Page 3 of 4 Tel: 5359+279 / 2 Email: mazad@worldbank.org . . Borrower/Client/Recipient PHBORROWERSEC TION PHBORROWERSEC TION Name: Federal Ministry of Finance PHBORROWERSEC Contact: TION PHBORROWERSEC Title: TION PHBORROWERSEC Tel: TION Email: . . . Implementing Agencies PHAGENTPARTNER SECTION Name: National Bureau of Statistics(NBS), earlier Federal Office of Statistics PHAGENTPARTNER SECTION Contact: Yemi Kale PHAGENTPARTNER SECTION Title: Statistician General PHAGENTPARTNER SECTION Tel: 2347034142639 PHAGENTPARTNER SECTION . Email: ykale@nigerianstat.gov.ng . . VII. For more information contact: . The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 473-1000 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/projects Page 4 of 4