Global Monthly May 2018 • • • Russia South Africa • Japan China India Euro Area • Colombia Mexico Brazil • Turkey Argentina -5 0 5 10 15 20 Percent • • May 2018 Percent, year-on-year Index, 50>=expansion Deceleration 10 EMDEs IP in Q1 60 8 AEs Man. PMI (RHS) 58 EMDEs Man. PMI (RHS) 6 56 4 54 2 52 0 50 -2 48 -4 46 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Oct-17 Percent, year-on-year Index, 50>=expansion Trade 6.5 New export orders (RHS) 56 5.5 55 4.5 54 53 3.5 52 2.5 51 1.5 50 0.5 49 - -0.5 48 Jan-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jan-18 Jan-15 May-15 May-16 Sep-16 Sep-15 Sep-17 Percent, quarter-on-quarter annualized 5 Actual FRB Atlanta Nowcast 4 Consensus Economics FRB New York Nowcast 3 WSJ 2 1 0 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 15Q4 17Q1 2 May 2018 Percent 3.5 2017 2018Q1 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Germany Spain France Italy Percent 5 Domestic Demand Net Exports 4 Inventories 3 GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 2017Q1 2017Q3 2018Q1 Percent of GDP 15 Current account Net capital flows 10 Change in reserves 5 0 -5 -10 2017 2009-15 2016 2007-08 2018Q1 3 4 45 50 55 60 20 40 60 80 0 100 1.9 2.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.7 Jan-16 Jan-14 Percent Percent Nigeria May-16 Jul-14 Sep-16 Jan-15 Saudi Arabia Index, 50>=expansion Jan-17 Jul-15 Colombia Jan-16 India May-17 Poland United States Jul-16 Russian Sep-17 Federation Euro Area (RHS) Jan-18 Jan-17 Indonesia May-18 Jul-17 Turkey Mexico United Arab 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Jan-18 Emirates Percent May 2018 May 2018 US$, billions, 4-week sum 30 Bonds Equities 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jan-16 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 US$/bbl 80 Brent WTI 70 60 50 40 30 20 Apr-18 Jan-16 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-16 Jan-17 Oct-17 US$/mt US$/mt 2,600 Aluminum 16,000 Nickel (RHS) 2,400 14,000 2,200 12,000 2,000 10,000 1,800 1,600 8,000 May-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-17 Mar-18 Nov-17 5 May 2018 mb/d, quarterly US$/bbl, quarterly 3 120 Balance Price 2 100 1 80 0 60 -1 -2 40 -3 20 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 mb/d, quarterly change year-over-year 4 OECD China Other Non-OECD 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2018 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 mb/d 2017 4 Agreement countries Others 3 Net Agreed cuts 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 6 1 2 3 4 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2.5 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 2011 Mb/d Jan-16 Jan-13 US$/bbl Apr-16 Jul-13 2012 Billion barrels Jul-16 Jan-14 Stocks 2013 Oct-16 Jul-14 Iran Jan-15 2014 Jan-17 Jul-15 Apr-17 2015 Jan-16 Jul-17 Venezuela Jul-16 2016 Oct-17 5-year average Jan-17 Jan-18 2017 Jul-17 Apr-18 Jan-18 2018 May 2018 7 May 2018 (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) France 4/27/18 GDP Q1 2.1% 2.6% UK 4/27/18 GDP Q1 1.2% 1.4 % United States 4/27/18 GDP Q1 2.9 % 2.6 % Slovenia 4/30/18 CPI APR 1.5 % 1.2 % South Korea 5/1/18 CPI APR 1.4 % 1.4 % Indonesia 5/7/18 GDP Q1 5.1% 5% 5.2% Norway 5/9/18 CPI APR 2.4 % 2.2 % Mexico 5/9/18 CPI APR 4.5% 5.0% China 5/9/18 CPI APR 1.8 % 2.1 % Denmark 5/11/18 CPI APR 0.8 % 0.5 % Finland 5/14/18 CPI APR 0.8 % 0.8% Czech Republic 5/15/18 GDP Q1 4.5 % 5.5 % Japan 5/15/18 GDP Q1 1.0% 1.8% Portugal 5/15/18 GDP Q1 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.4 % Austria 5/16/18 CPI APR 1.8 % 1.9 % Italy 5/16/18 CPI APR 0.5 % 0.8 % Malaysia 5/17/18 GDP Q1 5.4 % 5.9 % Canada 5/18/18 CPI APR 2.2 % 2.3 % 2.3 % Thailand 5/20/18 GDP Q1 4.8 % 4.0 % Mexico 5/23/18 GDP Q1 1.3 % 1.5 % Germany 5/24/18 GDP Q1 1.6% 2.3 % 8 May 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) 2.0 4.0 3.4 4.9 3.6 5.6 3.7 4.4 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.2 0.0 2.8 1.6 4.3 2.3 5.4 2.6 3.4 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.6 3.0 3.2 4.1 5.2 5.2 5.6 4.8 5.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.3 5.6 6.7 6.5 5.2 0.1 2.3 1.9 4.6 3.2 0.5 2.0 3.4 1.3 2.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.1 2.4 4.1 3.1 2.7 5.3 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.3 7.2 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.4 7.4 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.8 6.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.0 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.7 5.8 7.4 7.2 5.7 4.7 4.1 4.1 1.5 7.6 0.3 4.3 5.0 0.6 3.3 4.8 5.7 3.2 3.4 3.4 8.8 7.4 3.7 2.7 5.4 3.4 10.0 4.3 6.0 4.6 6.5 5.3 6.8 6.9 7.0 5.9 5.1 6.6 8.0 7.0 5.2 -2.2 0.7 1.3 -0.3 3.3 2.7 -0.9 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.7 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.9 3.0 -1.1 5.4 6.0 -3.0 28.3 0.4 1.6 5.9 2.8 15.8 7.7 2.2 6.1 7.1 8.7 2.2 2.6 4.0 5.3 4.7 4.3 2.3 6.9 13.5 4.6 4.0 0.1 4.0 6.5 4.7 3.7 8.8 7.6 8.1 7.3 4.6 1.0 -0.2 -4.3 2.9 4.2 7.6 -0.5 -1.8 -2.9 -0.7 1.2 -0.8 1.7 2.4 3.3 1.8 1.1 2.5 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 0.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.6 1.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.3 3.6 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.7 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.5 1.9 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.4 3.2 3.9 2.9 2.9 1.8 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.1 1.6 2.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.0 2.7 4.4 3.8 4.3 4.5 3.6 3.8 4.7 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 5.3 5.1 6.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 4.8 5.1 4.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) -3.0 10.2 17.2 3.5 13.3 15.6 3.8 11.1 7.5 10.2 10.9 11.0 12.2 13.0 11.6 17.2 17.2 9.3 -0.8 9.5 17.5 1.7 17.4 12.4 1.2 10.3 6.5 9.9 10.8 10.9 11.8 12.9 11.4 17.9 12.5 11.1 -6.5 11.5 16.7 6.9 6.3 21.7 8.5 12.7 9.5 10.8 11.2 11.1 13.1 13.2 11.8 16.0 26.3 6.0 -8.9 17.2 34.1 -8.7 17.5 24.6 13.1 19.3 10.0 17.2 16.7 16.3 20.5 13.9 13.1 20.7 15.1 12.8 -4.6 9.3 10.2 14.1 2.1 20.4 6.8 10.2 9.3 8.5 9.0 9.1 10.3 12.9 11.3 14.3 30.8 3.4 -6.1 9.7 10.6 15.7 1.3 18.2 8.7 11.0 8.9 10.3 8.0 9.8 10.0 12.8 10.9 14.2 33.6 1.1 -6.0 16.4 32.7 -1.8 16.4 32.7 5.4 19.8 11.1 11.3 20.3 16.6 22.2 19.5 15.9 26.5 21.0 16.0 -2.3 11.9 21.6 0.2 6.7 17.2 9.7 11.7 12.7 10.7 11.4 10.5 16.0 9.3 8.4 12.1 12.3 11.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.6 5.5 12.2 -7.8 8.7 26.4 6.3 -1.8 -3.4 11.7 9.8 4.6 4.1 12.1 11.4 7.0 9.0 9.5 -13.6 14.6 45.8 -12.5 11.0 26.9 4.5 10.7 11.7 13.6 16.4 8.6 17.3 14.3 15.9 - - - -5.3 12.1 22.2 14.1 0.6 32.9 -6.3 25.6 7.2 21.5 16.0 5.7 18.1 13.1 19.5 16.3 21.4 8.9 -3.3 9.0 18.6 5.3 13.4 19.5 1.7 10.2 5.2 10.5 8.8 9.0 14.5 14.0 13.8 18.6 15.2 11.7 -6.4 13.8 24.2 19.1 -5.7 40.6 -10.2 34.4 8.4 27.8 20.4 3.8 20.1 12.7 22.7 15.1 24.8 7.5 -7.3 13.2 20.2 26.6 -10.2 47.6 -15.3 39.4 7.2 31.4 22.3 -0.3 21.2 11.3 25.9 10.2 29.3 - -3.0 16.0 38.4 -3.0 11.5 19.1 11.2 17.2 12.4 15.7 14.2 17.5 16.6 17.7 12.4 32.4 11.3 12.2 -3.6 17.4 49.0 -10.6 12.9 17.5 12.9 17.6 13.4 15.8 13.9 19.0 17.8 18.6 9.7 37.7 9.2 11.9 -1.2 18.3 38.6 14.4 19.8 17.8 8.1 23.0 13.7 26.8 17.0 20.0 21.1 23.4 22.4 29.6 21.2 16.6 -7.4 8.2 24.2 -8.1 10.4 18.5 -1.3 12.1 6.2 7.6 9.3 4.7 16.3 9.0 6.9 13.6 10.8 4.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -5.4 22.3 33.8 10.9 -9.3 35.8 41.3 30.3 13.1 20.5 21.0 18.5 10.9 18.8 19.0 24.3 11.8 8.6 -13.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -2.0 7.2 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 -0.5 0.5 3.2 9.9 3.4 2.9 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.2 -0.5 0.5 -5.2 5.3 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -4.5 - 0.5 0.5 0.8 - 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 - - - - - -5.7 5.9 0.5 2.0 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 -0.7 0.3 -7.3 5.3 0.5 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 -0.9 0.4 3.4 10.2 2.9 3.2 3.1 0.9 -0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 1.0 -0.3 3.6 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 0.5 1.7 1.0 -1.0 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 -0.7 0.8 0.1 0.4 -10.7 - -2.0 -1.7 - - -1.2 -0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 - - - - - - - 3.6 11.8 2.1 4.5 2.5 2.2 0.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 2.1 2.4 -0.2 0.3 -4.7 - 3.2 0.7 0.4 - 3.5 -1.2 -1.6 2.4 -1.7 0.0 0.8 - - - - - 9 May 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 0.39 0.97 0.92 1.13 1.17 1.40 0.88 1.01 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.27 1.38 1.38 1.45 1.63 1.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 1.26 1.20 1.32 1.47 1.93 1.19 1.26 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.43 1.61 1.73 1.87 2.18 2.35 2.32 -0.26 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 1.84 2.33 2.26 2.24 2.37 2.76 2.30 2.19 2.32 2.21 2.20 2.36 2.35 2.41 2.58 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.98 0.11 0.37 0.31 0.46 0.38 0.57 0.37 0.29 0.54 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.37 0.36 0.50 0.67 0.54 0.48 0.49 410 325 325 322 313 309 320 325 327 325 314 306 320 312 299 309 319 322 348 221 164 169 161 151 157 167 166 163 163 157 148 153 151 146 156 168 171 186 302 243 242 234 233 221 237 240 243 234 224 226 244 229 212 217 234 246 276 537 429 427 428 416 418 420 430 435 435 416 407 422 419 410 420 423 422 452 517 385 362 383 400 367 353 382 382 382 384 381 421 398 359 366 374 385 415 518 376 386 380 350 320 376 383 394 378 367 360 359 332 305 317 337 342 370 424 508 465 487 508 500 464 465 478 478 487 497 505 508 502 517 500 510 515 1761 2086 1916 2001 2086 2042 1912 1916 1961 1960 2001 2037 2077 2086 2053 2113 2042 2087 2118 2258 2668 2423 2519 2668 2590 2421 2423 2470 2472 2519 2575 2648 2668 2631 2711 2590 2648 2725 1475 1558 1534 1571 1558 1493 1576 1534 1526 1512 1571 1600 1563 1558 1518 1522 1493 1556 1576 19302 22530 20033 20356 22530 21203 19836 20033 19974 19720 20356 22198 22730 22530 21650 21794 21203 22488 22451 861 1139 1011 1082 1139 1167 1005 1011 1066 1088 1082 1119 1121 1139 1158 1202 1167 1164 1135 419 577 512 543 577 589 505 512 538 544 543 571 572 577 584 603 589 587 585 295 341 304 331 341 350 308 304 315 336 331 330 330 341 354 370 350 335 319 248 275 251 268 275 280 255 251 261 274 268 268 265 275 285 295 280 271 259 2341 2811 2544 2917 2811 3008 2532 2544 2752 2873 2917 2809 2719 2811 2945 3095 3008 2988 2681 0.90 0.89 0.91 0.85 0.85 0.81 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.85 108.80 112.11 111.10 110.96 112.75 107.94 112.36 110.91 112.31 109.78 110.80 112.93 112.81 112.51 109.83 107.96 106.02 107.62 109.24 3.49 3.19 3.21 3.16 3.24 3.24 3.20 3.30 3.20 3.15 3.13 3.19 3.26 3.28 3.19 3.25 3.28 3.41 3.65 6.65 6.76 6.86 6.67 6.61 6.35 6.88 6.81 6.77 6.67 6.57 6.62 6.62 6.59 6.41 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.38 10.12 17.85 18.10 17.77 17.71 17.68 18.10 18.11 17.92 17.75 17.65 17.64 17.68 17.81 17.74 17.67 17.63 17.68 17.94 67.19 65.11 64.48 64.29 64.71 64.40 64.46 64.45 64.44 63.97 64.46 65.07 64.85 64.20 63.72 64.44 65.06 65.69 68.35 67.06 58.31 57.17 58.93 58.47 56.96 56.88 58.10 59.72 59.42 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.70 56.93 56.81 57.15 61.01 61.56 14.71 13.31 13.21 13.19 13.62 11.93 13.25 12.91 13.15 13.25 13.17 13.71 14.06 13.11 12.15 11.82 11.84 12.10 12.43 119.7 119.6 120.7 116.6 117.5 114.1 121.0 119.4 117.9 116.5 115.5 117.5 117.7 117.4 114.7 113.7 113.9 113.9 117.5 55 68 64 65 75 82 64 60 62 65 68 71 76 78 85 81 81 88 88 80 84 82 84 85 88 83 82 83 84 85 85 85 85 87 88 88 90 90 88 87 87 86 86 89 88 87 88 85 86 86 86 85 88 89 90 92 92 64 79 74 81 84 88 73 72 76 83 84 84 84 85 89 89 85 87 87 43 53 50 50 59 64 50 46 48 50 53 55 60 61 66 63 64 69 73 1249 1258 1258 1278 1275 1329 1246 1260 1237 1283 1314 1280 1282 1264 1331 1331 1325 1335 1305 676 1152 1023 1138 1509 1171 979 861 906 1144 1363 1484 1455 1589 1234 1130 1149 1126 1077 10