59702 Social, Environment and RURAL Development ­ East Asia and Pacific Region D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r s MONGOLIA Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Dennis Sheehy Cody Sheehy Doug Johnson Daalkhaijav Damiran Marci Fiamengo MONGOLIA Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass August 2010 THE WORLD BANK © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA March 2010 All rights reserved. This study was prepared by the Social, Environment and Rural Sustainable Development Unit (EASER) of the East Asia and Pacific Region, and was funded by the World Bank's Netherlands-Mongolia Trust Fund for Environmental Reform. Social, environment and rural development issues are an integral part of the development challenge in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) Region. The World Bank's Sustainable Development Strategy for the region provides the conceptual framework for setting priorities, strengthening the policy and institutional frameworks for sustainable development, and addressing key environmental, social and rural development challenges through projects, programs, policy dia- logue, non-lending services, and partnerships. The EASER Discussion Paper series provides a forum for discussion on good practices and policy issues within the development community and with client countries. The publication is available online at www.worldbank.org/mn and www.worldbank.org/nemo. Suggested citation: Sheehy, D.P., Sheehy, C.M., Johnson. D.E., Damiran, D. and Fiemengo, M. 2010. Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass. Mongolia Discussion Papers, East Asia and Pacific Sustain- able Development Department. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Contact details: Dennis Sheehy, International Center for the Advancement of Pastoral Systems (ICAPS), sheehyicaps@gmail.com Cody Sheehy, Autonomy Productions, codysheehy@gmail.com Doug Johnson, Oregon State University, douglas.e.johnson@oregonstate.edu Daalkhaijav Damiran, University of Saskatchewan, daal.damiran@usask.ca Marci Fiamengo, Autonomy Productions Cover image: Horses drinking from a shallow lake formed by migrating sand dunes. Photographer: Cody Sheehy 2009 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Table of Contents Foreword. .................................................................................................................................. vii Acronyms.And.AbbreviAtions. ...................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements. .................................................................................................................... xi executive.summAry.................................................................................................................... xiii Economic Development .................................................................................................................... xiii Livestock and the Livestock Production System ................................................................................. xiv Wildlife: Status and Trends ................................................................................................................. xv Water Availability and Well Development ......................................................................................... xvi Development Impacts on Wildlife and Livestock............................................................................... xvi Overgrazing Impacts ........................................................................................................................ xvii Climate Change Impacts .................................................................................................................. xvii Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... xviii 1... introduction:.scope.And.objective.......................................................................................1 2... environment.And.nAturAl.resources. ...................................................................................3 Regional Features and Populations Trends ............................................................................................3 Land and Water Resources....................................................................................................................4 Geology and Topography .............................................................................................................. 4 Water Resources .......................................................................................................................... 5 Vegetation Resources ............................................................................................................................7 Land Vegetation Cover ................................................................................................................ 8 Natural Rangeland Ecosystems ..................................................................................................... 8 Livestock Resources ..............................................................................................................................9 Livestock Production System ...................................................................................................... 10 Natural Versus Industrial Livestock Economies ............................................................................ 10 Livestock and Wild Herbivore Adaptability ................................................................................ 11 Overgrazing Impacts on Rangeland Ecosystems............................................................................ 13 Weather and Climate Change.............................................................................................................14 Precipitation............................................................................................................................. 15 Climate Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 16 iii Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass 3... development.oF.the.southern.gobi.region........................................................................19 Regional Development .......................................................................................................................19 Transportation .......................................................................................................................... 19 Communication ....................................................................................................................... 19 Mining .................................................................................................................................... 19 Energy Generation .................................................................................................................... 21 Water ........................................................................................................................................21 Livestock Production ................................................................................................................. 22 Tourism ................................................................................................................................... 22 Impact of Development......................................................................................................................23 Development Perspectives........................................................................................................... 23 SGR Development Scenario ....................................................................................................... 27 Degradation in the Southern Gobi Region .........................................................................................29 Livestock-Related Degradation ................................................................................................... 29 Degradation from Economic Development .................................................................................. 29 Impacts on Wildlife ................................................................................................................... 30 Climate Change Impacts ....................................................................................................................30 4... wild.Ass.in.the.context.oF.sgr.development...................................................................35 Environment and Natural Resources ..................................................................................................36 Land Form and Topography ...................................................................................................... 36 Vegetation ................................................................................................................................ 36 Methodology ......................................................................................................................................37 Herder Engagement .................................................................................................................. 37 Wild Ass Local Pasture Use ........................................................................................................ 38 Wild Ass Regional Pasture Use ................................................................................................... 39 Large Herbivore Distribution .................................................................................................... 39 Vegetation Community Selection ................................................................................................ 39 Large Herbivore Dietary Quality ............................................................................................... 39 Study Results ......................................................................................................................................39 Seasonal Precipitation ............................................................................................................... 40 Wild Ass Distribution ............................................................................................................... 41 Preferred Vegetation Communities and Habitat .......................................................................... 44 Livestock Distribution ............................................................................................................... 48 Herbivore Diet Quality ............................................................................................................. 49 Herder and Wild Ass Interaction ................................................................................................ 49 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................50 Precipitation Has a Marked Influence on Herbivore Distributions ............................................... 51 Wild Ass Diet Changes with the Seasons ..................................................................................... 51 Wild Ass Tolerance of Humans Has Its Limits ............................................................................. 51 Herders Can Be Excellent Collaborators ..................................................................................... 52 The Wild Ass's Future Is Tied to the Circumstances of the Herders ................................................. 52 5... A.vision.For.sustAinAble.resources.mAnAgement................................................................55 Developing a SGR Natural Resources Management Plan ...................................................................55 Improving Environmental Assessments........................................................................................ 58 Strengthening Policy and Regulations of Rangeland ..................................................................... 59 Monitoring Trends .................................................................................................................... 59 Monitoring Economic Development ........................................................................................... 62 iv Table of Contents Mitigating Risk to Livestock Herders .......................................................................................... 62 Facilitating Herder Participation ............................................................................................... 62 Coordinating With Other Projects .............................................................................................. 63 Conclusion .........................................................................................................................................63 Annexes Annex A. Plant Community Composition in SE Gobi .......................................................................65 Annex B. Regional Differences Affecting Mongolian Livestock Production ........................................69 Annex C. Pastoral Livestock Economies .............................................................................................75 Annex D. Current Population Status of Selected Wild Herbivore and Predator Species in Mongolia ..79 Annex E. Vulnerability of Mongolia to Climate Change .....................................................................85 Annex F. Tavan Tolgoi Mining and Electrical Power Generation Complex Implementation Plan ........91 Annex G. Monitoring of Mongolian Rangeland .................................................................................95 reFerences................................................................................................................................103 list.oF.tAbles Table 2.1. Partial Census of Large Wild Herbivore Populations in SGR .............................................12 Table 2.2. Livestock Mortalities during Mongolian Drought/Dzud Years ..........................................17 Table 3.1. Development Impact on Wild Herbivores and Pastoral Livestock Production in SGR .......24 Table 3.2. Water Source Availability and Grazable Pasture ..................................................................28 Table 3.3. Main Constraints Affecting Large Herbivore Wildlife and Predators in the SGR................31 Table 3.4. Potential Vulnerabilities of Rangeland Ecosystems to Climate Change Impacts ..................33 Table 4.1. Wild Ass Preference for Vegetation Communities in the SGR ............................................46 Table 4.2. Ulaanhukhun Herd Movements 16 July 2005 to 27 August 2005......................................47 Table A.1. Dominant Vegetation Types Found in the SGR .................................................................65 Table C.1. Livestock Production in a Natural Economy Versus an Industrial Economy ......................75 Table D.1. Estimated Current Large Wildlife Populations in Mongolia ..............................................80 list.oF.Figures Figure 2.1. Dundgov, Dornogov, and Omnogov Provinces Comprise the Southern Gobi Region .........3 Figure 2.2. Human Population Trend in Mongolia 1950­2005 ............................................................4 Figure 2.3. Human Population Increase in Sainshand and Dalanzadgad Provincial Centers ..................4 Figure 2.4. Landsat Image of Basin and Range Topography of the SGR ...............................................5 Figure 2.5. Location of Lakes, Springs, and Rivers throughout Mongolia .............................................6 Figure 2.6. Location and Dispersal of Small, Hand-draft Wells in Southwestern Dornogov Province ...7 Figure 2.7. Location of Shallow Aquifers in the SGR............................................................................7 Figure 2.8. Land Cover in Mongolia.....................................................................................................8 Figure 2.9. Estimated Livestock Numbers in Mongolia, 1961­2003 ....................................................9 Figure 2.10. Number and Trend of Livestock Species in the National Herd Before and After the 2001/02 Drought/Dzud..............................................................................................................9 Figure 2.11. Regional Distribution of Mongolian Livestock Species ...................................................11 Figure 2.12. Population Development (since 1985) and Livestock Numbers (since 1970) ..................12 Figure 2.13. Changes In Desert Zone (DZ) and Forest Steppe Zone (FS) Ecological Condition during the 11 Year Interval between Macroplot Measurements in 1997 and 2008 ................................14 Figure 2.14. Cumulative Centimeters of Annual Precipitation by Season in Southwest Dornogov Province ....................................................................................................................................15 Figure 2.15. Seasonal Precipitation in the Southeast Gobi during 2005 ..............................................15 Figure 2.16. Annual Differences in Vegetation Growth Related to the Amount of Precipitation .........16 v Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Figure 3.1. Unimproved Road Network in Western Dornogov Province, Characteristic of SGR .........20 Figure 3.2. LANDSAT View of Trans-Mongolia Railroad and Road Traffic Impacts at Sainshand in Dornogov Province ..............................................................................................20 Figure 3.3. Coal Mine Tailing Piles in Dundgov Province ..................................................................21 Figure 3.4. Small Lakes and Ponds in Eastern SGR Used Extensively by Livestock and Wild Herbivores to Obtain Drinking Water (LANDSAT Image) ..............................................21 Figure 3.5. Concentrated Livestock Use of Rangeland Near a Functioning Production Well ..............22 Figure 3.6. An Abandoned Production Well in the Eastern SGR ........................................................23 Figure 4.1. LANDSAT Topographic Relief Map of Part of the SGR Extensively Used by Wild Ass .....36 Figure 4.2. Vegetation Map of the Southeast Gobi .............................................................................37 Figure 4.3. Minimum Convex Polygon of Wild Ass Home Range Derived from Collared Wild Ass Locations during the 2005 Study. The Green Polygon Includes All the Tracked Points from the Wild Ass GPS Tracking Units .............................................................38 Figure 4.4. Annual Precipitation by Season in the Southeast Gobi ......................................................40 Figure 4.5 (a), (b), and (c). Regional Precipitation in the Southeast Gobi in 2005 and 2006 in Southern, Central, and North Study Areas Respectively ............................................................41 Figure 4.6. Seasonal MCPs of Rangeland Area with Observed Use by Collared Wild Ass during 2005 and Early 2006 .....................................................................................................42 Figure 4.7 (a) and (b). Vegetation Types at Different Elevations..........................................................43 Figure 4.8. Seasonal MCPs of Rangeland Area with Observed Wild Ass Use along North to South Vehicular Transects during 2006 and 2007 ................................................................................43 Figure 4.9. Seasonal MCPs of Rangeland Area with Collared and Observed Wild Ass Use between 2005 and 2007..........................................................................................................................44 Figure 4.10. Location of Collared Wild Ass Relative to Vegetation Types and Topography in 2005 and 2006..........................................................................................................................45 Figure 4.11. MCPs of Wild Ass Observed in 2006 and 2007 along a Vehicular Transect Relative to Vegetation Communities .........................................................................................45 Figure 4.12. Location of Collared Wild Ass (Colored Points) and Cooperating Herder's Pastureland (Grey Areas) in the Study Area during the Summer of 2005 ...................................48 Figure 4.13. Summer Dietary Quality of Five Large Herbivores Co-Grazing Pastureland in the Southeast Gobi..........................................................................................................................49 Figure 4.14. Recorded Observation of Wild Ass on Ulaanhukhun's Pastureland between 6/1/2006 and 7/1/2007 ............................................................................................................49 Figure 4.15. Recorded Observation of Wild Ass on Yubba's Pastureland between 6/1/2006 and to 7/1/2007 ........................................................................................................50 Figure 4.16. Recorded Observation of Wild Ass on Namsarai's Pastureland between 6/1/2006 and 7/1/2007 ............................................................................................................51 Figure A.1. The Juxtaposition of Plant Communities (Color-coded in Reference to Table A.1) and Livestock Used by Two Herders in the Southeast Gobi .......................................................67 Figure E.1. Sensitivity Analysis of Biomass in the Gobi ......................................................................88 Figure E.2. Predicted above Ground Biomass in the Desert Steppe in Mongolia .................................88 Figure E.3. Changes in River Flow Predicted by the Computer Model CCCM ..................................89 Figure E.4. Change in Ewe Weight Relative to Changes in Temperature and Pasture Biomass ............90 Figure E.5. Map of Dzud Frequency in Mongolia ..............................................................................90 list.oF.boxes Box 5.1. Models of Natural Resources Management Agencies ............................................................58 Box 5.2. PHYGROW Forage Growth Model .....................................................................................60 vi Foreword T his purpose of this report is to examine The importance of rangeland and water development trends in the Southern resources in this region is illustrated by the case Gobi Region (SGR) as they affect study of herder interactions with the Wild Ass livestock and wildlife. It provides an or Khulan. This study found that Mongolians in overview of the environment and natural resources the SGR, especially pastoralists, are interested in of the region, discusses existing relationships and wildlife and can be willing cooperators in conser- interactions among humans, livestock, large herbi- vation, especially if they receive some compensa- vore wildlife, and the natural resources on which tion for their efforts. It was also observed during they are dependent. It then explores the impact the study that the very presence of local people that economic development of the region is likely engaged in field work on Wild Ass was beneficial to have if that development does not consider the to improving regard for the well-being of wildlife needs of the current users. and natural resources. It is important to remember that there have This current planning and preparation period been balanced interactions among these co-users represents a window of opportunity to engage local of the SGR for millennia. During the socialist Mongolian pastoralists and others in activities that period, populations of large herbivore wildlife will provide long-term benefits to Wild Ass and remained at relatively high numbers even though other large herbivore wildlife in the SGR. This op- livestock production was highly organized and portunity should not be squandered because there vegetation resources were systematically and may not be many future opportunities to develop heavily utilized throughout the region. It is only concern and appreciation for sustainable use of nat- since 1990, with the transition to free-market ural resources and the wildlife and pastoral livestock economics, that large wild herbivores have been herders that are co-dependent on these resources. over-hunted and that conflict between wildlife and It is even more critical to engage local people at livestock is perceived as normal. this time within a natural resource management program that also provides benefits to ensure their Even though the region is large and not continued presence on the Gobi landscape. densely populated, the control of the limited rangeland and water resources has been, and will The general conclusion reached by this report remain, the key SGR issue as the economic devel- is that direct competition for resources is not opment accelerates. Mining, energy, and transpor- now the primary issue affecting the relationship tation will substantially affect rangeland and water between humans, pastoral livestock and large to the likely detriment of herders, livestock and herbivore wildlife; rather it is the lack or loss of wildlife. a conservation ethic that provides protection for vii Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass traditional users of natural resources, enforcement nomic development of the region will undoubt- of hunting regulations, and prevents illegal sport edly proceed, having in place an effective and hunting that is rapidly reducing populations of functional natural resource management program large wild herbivores in the region. Although eco- is critical. Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez Arshad Sayed Sector Manager for Sustainable Development Mongolia Resident Representative & Country The World Bank, Beijing Manager The World Bank, Ulaanbaatar viii Acronyms and Abbreviations Aimags Province in Mongolia MCP Minimum Convex Polygon ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving MNET Ministry of Nature, Environment Average (forecasting model) and Tourism AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution MW Megawatt Radiometer NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation CP Crude Protein Index DOM Digestible Organic Matter NIRS Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy DSS Decision Support System NOAA National Oceanic and GANL Texas A&M Grazing Animal Atmospheric Administration Nutrition Laboratory NRM Natural Resources Management Ger Traditional Felt Tent PFRA Prairie Farm Rehabilitation GHG Greenhouse gas Administration (Canada) GIS Geographic Information System PHYGROW Rangeland Forage Growth Model GLA Grazing Land Applications Red List The IUCN List of Threatened GPS Global Positioning System Species IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on RIAH Research Institute of Animal Climate Change Husbandry IUCN The International Union for SGR Southern Gobi Region Conservation of Nature Soum Mongolian County KRESS Kinetic Resource and SPA Strictly Protected Area Environmental Spatial System UB Ulaanbaatar, Capital of Mongolia kV Kilovolt UNEP United Nations Environment kW Kilowatt Program LANDSAT Earth-Observing Satellite USDA United States Department of Missions Agriculture ix Acknowledgements T his study is an output of the World The study was prepared by Dennis P. Sheehy Bank/Netherlands-Mongolia Trust (ICAPS) with assistance from Cody M. Sheehy Fund for Environmental Reform (University of California at Davis), Douglas E. (NEMO). Field research and prepara- Johnson (Oregon State University), Damiran tion of the report was managed by the Interna- Daalkhaijav (University of Saskatchewan), and tional Center for the Advancement of Pastoral Marci Fiamengo (Oregon State University). The Systems (ICAPS), with oversight and assistance study would not have been possible without the from Tony Whitten, Senior Biodiversity Specialist, involvement and assistance of local people living Social Environment and Rural Development Unit in the Southern Gobi Region, especially the three of the East Asia and Pacific Region of the World herder families that agreed to record Khulan use Bank, assisted by Judith Schleicher and Neelesh of their pastureland. These were the families of Shrestha of the same Unit. The publication also Namsarai and Yubba in Khatenbulag Soum and benefitted from the comments provided by the Ulaankhukhen in Mandalk Soum. peer reviewers. Many thanks to everyone for their encouragement and guidance in preparation of this report. xi Executive Summary T he Southern Gobi Region (SGR) is In this light, the objective of this report is to enormous, richly endowed with min- describe for the SGR the status, trends, and likely eral wealth and home to many wide- development paths for pastoral livestock herd- ranging threatened species. Served by ing and populations of large herbivore wildlife few transport links, the SGR is one of the last relative to development of mechanical wells, relatively natural, great landscapes on Earth: It exploitation of shallow groundwater, economic has relatively intact grassland and desert ecosys- development, and the impact from climate tems and retains a culture and history of pastoral change on these issues. The report was commis- livestock production that has changed very little sioned by the World Bank as part of the South- over the centuries. The present livestock system ern Gobi Regional Environmental Assessment has proven itself to be an efficient and sustainable (Walton, 2010) that assesses the potential for and means of utilizing available resources within the constraints facing economic development across severe constraints of climate and limited natural all relevant sectors including transport, rural productivity of the region. It is, however, suf- development, mining, energy, water, and natural fering from decreases in both rainfall and water resources management. availability. The SGR supports a sparse but growing hu- Economic Development man population, including livestock herders, who maintain a difficult grip on their livelihood after The SGR borders China, which is actively seeking enduring the upheavals wrought by the collapse of access to the largely undeveloped deposits of pre- the Socialist-command economy, and the recent cious metals, minerals, coal, petroleum, and live- multi-year period of severe drought and winter stock products found in the region. Development weather. Mongolia's transition to a privatized and sale of these deposits will improve Mongolia's market economy, and the development of active national wealth and help satisfy global demand for and proposed mines, together with their associ- these commodities but will also increase tension ated infrastructure needs and human population and conflict between current and future users of change, could cause significant and varied impacts natural resources in the SGR. on the SGR environment. These new dynamics in current Mongolian society and economy have The SGR is especially sensitive to human already started to appear as the traditional `conser- intrusion and economic development. It is also vation ethic' of the Mongolian people is rapidly a region important to conservation of natural changing to an `exploitation ethic' that is threaten- ecosystems, wildlife, pastoral livestock production, ing rangeland capacity to support livestock and and traditional lifestyles. Most importantly, the wildlife populations that share these resources. SGR has: xiii Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass O Desert and desert steppe land cover highly total land area is comprised of natural rangeland sensitive to drought and severe winter weather ecosystems that have provided food for domestic (i.e., dzud), which makes the region suscep- herbivores for more than 4,000 years and for wild tible to degradation; herbivores for millennia. The livestock species O Importance as the regional center of high- present in an area reflect differences in rangeland value cashmere wool production; capacity and species adaptability to the differ- O A developing eco-tourism industry; and ent land cover types. The natural rangeland types O Habitats critical for globally significant popu- occurring in the SGR are grass steppe, desert steppe, lations of threatened and endangered wildlife. and desert, the latter two providing most suitable habitat for camel, sheep and goats, whereas grass Development of the SGR is ongoing and steppe rangeland in the northern part of the SGR expected to accelerate in the near future. Several and along the Chinese border also provides suit- types of development are anticipated. The drivers able habitat for horses and cattle. of this development include: Livestock production is still the dominant O Mongolia's primary transportation corridor economic activity for a majority of residents in the (rail and highway) linking Ulaanbaatar with SGR. Following the breakdown of the Socialist China crosses the eastern section of the SGR; (collective) system, livestock numbers in the SGR O Ongoing or planned development of mineral, increased from about 762,000 to more than 5 mil- coal, and oil industries; lion head. The increase corresponded to a change O Planned large-scale infrastructure construc- in livestock composition, with the most dramatic tion, including i) development of a support shift occurring in the number of goats and camels. and service infrastructure to facilitate exploi- Goats, which now dominate the national and tation of minerals, coal, and oil; ii) enhance- SGR herds, increased from 30 to 57% of the SGR ment and expansion of the existing transpor- herd between 1970 and 2009. During the same tation network (roads, rail lines, air service, period, the percentage of camels in the SGR herd and ancillary industries); and iii) further de- decreased from 18 to 2.6%. velopment of water resource access, especially water from underground shallow aquifers; The extensively managed livestock produc- O Development of oasis and deep-well agricul- tion system as practiced by herders in the SGR is ture to produce specialty crops and animal a viable system, well adapted to local conditions. feed for more intensive, small-scale livestock It also presents both advantages and disadvantages production near the larger towns; relative to economic development and conserva- O An expanding tourism industry, including tion of wildlife and natural ecosystems. The major eco-tourism, that will require infrastructure advantages are: development; and O Commercialization of the livestock industry O The existing livestock system is low-input accompanied by increasing demand for meat and low-cost based on using renewable and and livestock products throughout the Asia monetary-free resources. Region, especially from China. O It is a production system that has adapted itself to the SGR environmental conditions. O It has the capacity to supply meat and off-take Livestock and the Livestock products desired by the Mongolian population. Production System O It is relatively self-sufficient in meeting con- sumption needs and producing marketable Livestock production remains the dominant products. economic activity for a majority of residents in O Under normal production conditions, it has the SGR, the center of Mongolian cashmere wool few negative impacts on the natural environ- production. About 80 percent of Mongolia's ment or wildlife habitat. xiv Executive Summary The major disadvantages of the SGR livestock hemionus), Argali bighorn sheep (Ovis ammon), production system are: and wild camel (Camelus bactrianus ferus). In the grass steppe areas, gazelle (Procapra gutturosa) and O It is a forage supply-driven livestock produc- the Wild Ass are the most common wild herbivore tion system where temperature and moisture grazers. The desert areas also provide habitat for conditions determine, during a short period of some of these large wild herbivores. forage growth, the supply of animal feed for the entire year irrespective of animal needs. Prior to the end of the Socialist period in O It has always been subject to natural climate- 1990, most wildlife species found in Mongolia related catastrophe that can cause widespread were relatively healthy, given the tightly controlled livestock mortality in the short term, and off-take of fish and wildlife. With the transition reduce animal and pasture productivity in the to a market economy, however, the situation has long term. changed; populations of many wildlife species are O Almost no support (feed, veterinary care, mar- in decline due to human-induced changes in their keting opportunities, etc.) is available for ex- habitat as well as legal and illegal over-hunting, tensively managed livestock production and to both for sport and as a source of income. The relieve livestock pressure on regional rangeland. pressure on wild herbivores is further intensi- O Herders are responding to market incentives fied as numbers of livestock increase, with which by increasing livestock numbers and changing wild herbivores are competing for space and food. herd structure to cashmere goats. The change Hunting is also a primary threat to the population in numbers and herd structure can lead to of the black tailed gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa), catastrophic losses among herd populations in Argali bighorn sheep, Ibex goat (Capra sibirica), the event of natural and commonly occurring and snow leopards (Panthera uncia). Habitat deg- weather events; and to decreased opportu- radation and human intrusions have contributed nities for the conservation of wildlife and to population declines of snow leopards, Wild Ass, natural ecosystems. white tailed gazelle, and Ibex goat. These and other factors are threatening local species; many of these Furthermore, privatization of livestock owner- species are listed as Endangered in the Regional ship and production has increased the level of un- Red List, including the white tailed gazelle, Wild certainty and risk to which herders must respond. Ass, Argali bighorn sheep (critically endangered This is further being compounded by new factors globally), wild camel (critically endangered glob- including: ally) and snow leopard. The black tailed gazelle is listed as "Vulnerable" in the regional assessment. O The concentration and expansion of livestock numbers, The world's population of the Wild Ass (Equus O A decrease in the number of herding families, hemionus) or Khulan as it is called in Mongolian O Changes in customary herder institutions, (and pronounced "hoo lan"), has shrunk to a single O Uncertainties from the marketplace and gov- sustainable population in the Gobi Region of ernment, and Mongolia, with only vestigial populations in Iran, O Increased potential for conflict over use of Turkmenistan, and India. The Mongolian popula- pasture resources. tion of Wild Ass, which is centered in the SGR, is expected to decline rapidly during the next 10 years as a result of illegal hunting and deterioration Wildlife: Status and Trends of their habitat. While Wild Ass and livestock have high potential to compete for forage and water, Despite the harsh conditions, the SGR provides recent studies of Wild Ass in the SGR has shown important habitat for a number of wildlife spe- that the high mobility and capacity to travel limit cies. The desert steppe provides habitat for the the potential for forage competition between Wild following large wild herbivores: Wild Ass (Equus Ass and livestock of individual herders, but a high xv Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass density of herders throughout the Wild Ass range a result, considerably less rangeland area is actually increases competition for forage, especially during accessible and being used during the seasons when drought years. This is especially the case for herders livestock cannot drink from ephemeral rainfall dependent on surface water for their livestock. sources or consume surface snow thus making Economic development or more intensive livestock access to potable water the most limiting factor use of Wild Ass winter range habitat would be for livestock production in the SGR. Since 2000, especially harmful to sustainability of the current a key focus of government and certain donor Wild Ass population because the area of winter projects in the region has therefore been rehabili- range habitat is substantially less than summer tating existing mechanical wells and expanding range habitat. In the longer term, habitat fragmen- well coverage to rangeland without drinking water tation caused by unregulated economic develop- for livestock. However, the development of wells ment will be the most important factor influencing and water systems is likely to have both positive the Wild Ass's survival. and negative environmental impacts on rangeland ecosystems, livestock, and wildlife. Potential posi- tive impacts from more wells and water sources Water Availability and Well include: Development O Improved distribution of livestock thereby Water availability is the single most important fac- potentially reducing grazing pressure on local tor influencing distribution of humans, livestock rangeland ecosystems near existing wells; and wildlife, as well as production activities in the O Improved living conditions for herders and SGR. In this respect, precipitation has a major rural residents; and influence on the development of habitats and the O Potentially providing wildlife with access to distribution of animals within habitats since it water if water distribution systems are imple- influences both the amount and timing of annual mented and managed for wildlife as well as forage growth. Very localized or lower forage and/ livestock. or water availability can both directly and indi- rectly increase potential conflict between domes- Potential negative impacts include: tic livestock and wildlife that co-use the same rangeland. O Increased competition between livestock and wildlife for forage and habitat in rangeland Within the SGR, there is very little surface areas formerly without water if livestock water; the largest water resources are underground numbers increase in conjunction with water water stored in shallow and deep aquifers. Most development; humans and domestic livestock rely on small, O Degradation by livestock of native vegetation hand-drawn wells to meet water requirements. and soils in surrounding rangeland as they Large wild herbivores however rely almost exclu- graze back and forth from newly developed sively on surface or near-surface water sources. mechanical wells; and Processes to extract minerals, precious metal, and O Increased grazing pressure from livestock on coal also require substantial and reliable sources of newly accessible rangeland that provide criti- water. Hence, infrastructure development at the cal security and habitat to wildlife, especially scale anticipated will need access to large quanti- large herbivores. ties of water and will require additional infrastruc- ture development to extract water from aquifers. Development Impacts on Wildlife It is reported that approximately 30,000 small and Livestock wells exist in the desert and desert steppe regions. Many of the mechanical wells developed during Livestock production is likely to be affected both the Socialist period are no longer functioning. As positively and negatively by the expected develop- xvi Executive Summary ment in the SGR. It could improve marketing of had high loss of presence on all seasonal pas- livestock and products as well as increase access tures. Ecological trend of Desert ecosystems had to resources and services such as water, electricity, declined from good and fair condition to poor and non-livestock economic opportunity, information, very poor ecological condition and heavily grazed health care, and education. However, development rangeland was becoming increasingly degraded. is also likely to result in loss of access to natural Unless changes in management relative to herd resources in general and to rangeland in particular, structure and stocking rate are implemented soon, which could also result in increased conflict. and other issues contributing to degradation are addressed, the rate at which rangeland is being Although the anticipated development might degraded will accelerate. result in increased potential for ecotourism and wildlife viewing, the impacts are likely to com- pound the threats facing wildlife. The impacts Climate Change Impacts include: i) interference with wildlife mobility; ii) increased pressure from and access for hunt- The added variable of climate change may ing and poaching; iii) loss, degradation, and increase pressure on humans, livestock, and wild- fragmentation of habitat; iv) increased competi- life. Although the debate on climate change and tion for rangeland resources with livestock; and how to respond continues, there is little doubt v) increased rate of human intrusion. Further that a warming trend accompanied by increas- anticipated economic development and human ing aridity is occurring. In Mongolia during the intrusion is therefore expected to increase pres- previous 60 years, mean annual air temperature sure on livestock and wildlife unless appropriate reportedly has increased by 1.6° C. If this pat- safeguards to protect natural ecosystems, wildlife, tern of change continues, by 2040 mean sum- and pastoral livestock production are in place mer temperatures are predicted to increase by and functional prior to the development. Uncon- 1.0 to 3.0° C and mean winter temperatures by strained economic development without prior 1.4 to 3.6° C. Further, potential vulnerabilities functional regulatory mechanisms will be a major of rangeland and natural ecosystems to climate cause of natural rangeland degradation. change impacts include: i) increased frequency of extreme weather events, including drought; ii) increased water stress and heat stress, resulting Overgrazing Impacts in decreasing vegetation productivity; iii) reduced soil cover in arid land vegetation due to wind ero- There seems to be a general consensus among sion; and iv) potential for increase in non-native herders, government officials, donor institutions, invasive species caused by reduced ground cover and the public that Mongolian rangeland has, and increased soil disturbance. and is, degrading from a combination of livestock overuse and increasing aridity throughout Mon- Projections of climate change impacts by golia. Although empirical data to support this the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change consensus is limited in the SGR, a 2008 re-survey (IPCC) for the regional area that includes the of 27 ecological monitoring plots in Gobi-Altai SGR are: i) increased annual temperatures of 2.5­ province that were established in the Desert 5.0° C during both winter and summer months; ecological zone in 1997 supports this conten- ii) an increase in annual precipitation during the tion. The re-survey indicated that: i) plant species winter; and iii) a slight decrease or increase in present in 1997 had declined by 33%, ii) grasses summer precipitation depending on sub-region and forbs had highest loss of presence on winter location. Higher temperature and precipitation and summer pastures, iii) ground surface cover are predicted to result in a 25­75 percent increase of bare soil and rock had increased while cover of Net Primary Productivity in Mongolia's desert of vegetation and plant litter had decreased, and steppe zones. However, there is concern that desert iv) livestock preferred and desirable plant species land cover types are gradually expanding their area xvii Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass northward into desert steppe and grass steppe, at critical areas and prevent degradation of natural least partially due to higher temperatures and less ecosystems. annual moisture accumulation. Since economic development and infra- structure construction is on-going, these activi- Conclusion ties should be implemented as soon as possible with widespread commitment from national and The SGR is doubtless entering a period of sig- international organizations. Given the urgency of nificant change. It is important that the local the situation, a Natural Resource Management inhabitants, civil society groups, and the govern- (NRM) Program can be established from a num- ment recognize the implications so that plan- ber of existing tools and intersected with on-going ning, avoidance, mitigation, and adaptation--as national and international projects that already appropriate--are started early. There will be hard have a presence in the SGR. Fortunately, many of decisions to make: none less than whether or to the monitoring and management technologies are what degree the wide-ranging wild herbivores already available in Mongolia; and many activities should be constrained in their movements and already being undertaken by national and inter- subjected to poaching, together leading to their national projects are consistent with institutional- eventual extinction. Action in the form of a SGR izing a NRM program in the SGR. Natural Resource Management Program is needed to: i) improve regional government capacity to en- Successfully implementing a NRM pro- force existing laws and regulations, ii) ensure ap- gram in the SGR will require real and direct plication of environmental remediation measures involvement of local people, especially herders as an essential component of economic develop- engaged in pastoral livestock production. Firstly, ment and infrastructure construction, iii) encour- the recent Wild Ass study supports the posi- age and support regional rangeland management tion that the future of the Wild Ass, and many and sustainable use of resources by livestock and other animals, is tied to the circumstances of the wildlife, and iv) provide meaningful and realistic Mongolian herder in the Gobi. If the herders are information on wildlife needs to government plan- displaced, maintain or further develop negative ning and management agencies. attitudes towards the Wild Ass, or engage in free market practices that encourage hunting of Ensuring sustainable wildlife populations as wildlife or development of land resources, then economic development rapidly changes the SGR the Wild Ass population will continue to decline requires an immediate need for pragmatic man- rapidly. Findings from this study also clearly indi- agement recommendations to protect important cated that Wild Ass are the key wildlife species to wildlife habitat, mitigate wildlife/human conflicts, monitor the status of resource needs for all large and guarantee the long-term survival of wild- wild herbivores and pastorally managed livestock. life species in Mongolia. Although laws exist to Wild Ass need large tracts of land, especially protect wildlife species, the illegal take of these during the summer. When/if these resources and species continues, at least partially because of the movement opportunities are not available to large poorly informed urban public and inadequate law wild herbivores such as the Wild Ass because of enforcement. Although preventing change or stop- fencing, railroads, mineral exploitation, or other ping economic development of the SGR is unwar- human intrusion, then landscape fragmentation ranted, a conservation management program that may be the final causative factor in the demise of monitors and regulates economic development, the pastoral livestock system and large herbivore detects changes in wild and domestic herbivore wildlife. relationships and habitat degradation, and moni- tors the impact of climate change on the SGR Secondly, the involvement of herders in environment is sorely needed. Environmental and collection of data during the Wild Ass study was land use legislation is required to regulate use of more than just an efficient way to employ year- xviii Executive Summary round researchers in a remote area; it also initiated impromptu field technicians intentionally or the critical process of instilling a conservation unintentionally became a major factor to dissuade ethic in the local people who were usually the only poaching in their pastures. Lastly, just by virtue of authority at present on the landscapes beyond having the research connected to the local popula- aimag and soum centers. Perhaps the most im- tion, awareness of the Wild Ass's dire situation can portant piece of this puzzle was finding a way to effectively reach the people who are most able to place a monetary value on living Wild Ass. These make a difference. xix 1. Introduction: Scope and Objective M ongolia's Gobi is a region of con- sources management--and supports efforts of the trasts: it is enormous but served Government of Mongolia and local communities by few transport links; it is richly to expand, deepen, and improve existing capacity endowed with mineral wealth for environmentally sustainable and integrated and wide-ranging wildlife and domestic animal regional development planning. species but suffers from low rainfall and decreas- ing water availability. The Southern Gobi Region The methodology for this background report (SGR) also supports a sparse but growing human employed the following steps to report on live- population, among them are livestock herders stock-related issues in the SGR Regional Environ- who maintain a difficult grip on a livelihood after mental Assessment: having endured the upheavals wrought by the col- lapse of the Socialist-command economy. Mon- O Define the region, golia's transition to a privatized market economy O Identify development scenarios, and proposed development of mines in the O Summarize demands and impacts of the sce- region, together with their associated infrastruc- narios on natural systems, ture needs and human population movement, O Describe relevant, regional environment and could cause significant and varied impacts on the natural resources, region's environment. O Examine vulnerability of the region and of potential developments relevant to effects of This report provides background to the climate change, Southern Gobi Regional Environmental Assess- O Identify an applied interactive tool that is ment (Walton, 2010) by addressing the current available to produce a synthesis of informa- status; recent trends; and likely development paths tion that users can also apply to additional for livestock, herding, large wildlife, wells, and scenarios, shallow groundwater. And it looks at the impacts O Identify gaps and needs for capacity strength- of climate change on these issues. The back- ening in the regulatory framework and insti- ground report, while applicable to livestock issues tutional structure that exists to manage the throughout Mongolia, focuses on the Southern impacts of development, Gobi Region formed by Dundgov, Omnogov, and O Develop a process for stakeholder consulta- Dornogov Provinces. The report is issue specific tion, and relates to technical and policy considerations. The Regional Environmental Assessment evaluates Following this introductory chapter, the the potential for and constraints to development report has four main sections. Chapter 2, Environ- across all relevant sectors--transport, rural devel- ment and Natural Resources, defines natural re- opment, mining, energy, water, and natural re- sources and predominant uses and users of natural 1 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass resources. Chapter 3, Development of the Southern the Wild Ass, and the natural resources on which Gobi Region, projects the impact of economic de- they are dependent. Chapter 5, A Vision for Sus- velopment on natural rangeland ecosystems, large tainable Resources Management, lays out potential herbivore wildlife, and pastoral livestock produc- strategies to mitigate impacts and sustain desir- tion systems. Chapter 4, Wild Ass in the Context able attributes through a resources management of SGR Development is a case study which focuses program. Ultimately, information obtained by this on ongoing livestock and wildlife issues and how and other studies will contribute to developing a economic development will influence pastoral live- strategy for environmental and natural resources stock production, large herbivore wildlife such as management in the SGR. 2 2. Environment and Natural Resources W hile this background report focuses The background report brings focus to a place on on the Southern Gobi Region of the verge of accelerated economic and environmen- Mongolia, defining the region sep- tal change that will alter the landscape, the people, arately from the rest of Mongolia is and the animals that live there. difficult. Most issues (i.e., economic infrastructure development, wildlife population decline, human population growth, and climate change) are na- Regional Features and Populations tional and international in context. The following Trends sections will define the SGR relative to economic development within Mongolia, as a border region Mongolia, which forms the transition zone with China, and as one of the world's relatively between the Siberian taiga and the Central Asian undeveloped places with largely intact populations desert, is in the center of Central Asia. Within of native wild herbivores in native habitats and a Mongolia, the provinces of Dundgov, Dornogov, functioning pastoral livestock production system. and Omnogov comprise the SGR (Figure 2.1). Figure 2.1. Dundgov, Dornogov, and Omnogov Provinces Comprise the Southern Gobi Region Source: Dornogov Office of Statistics (2005). 3 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Human population in Mongolia is approach- ing 2.4 million people. Between 1950 and 2005, Figure 2.3. Human Population Increase in Mongolia's population more than tripled as dia- Sainshand and Dalanzadgad Provincial Centers grammed in Figure 2.2. A consistent demographic Population Trend trend is the shift from a predominantly rural to an 20,000 urban population base as herders move out of live- stock production and become residents of urban 15,000 areas (i.e., county and provincial centers and the Number three major urban areas of Erdenent, Darhan, and 10,000 Ulaanbaatar). The demographic shift is on-going and will continue due to the growing desire of ru- 5,000 ral residents to participate more effectively in the developing market economy, among other reasons. 0 For many herding families, production of livestock 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 is no longer a desirable occupation in a changing Year socio-economic system where wealth and benefits Dalanzadgad Sainshand are more attainable in urban areas. Source: NSO (2005). In the Southern Gobi Region, human popula- tion in Dornogov and Omnogov Provinces has herders have moved their livestock to other followed the national trend. Between 1985 and provinces to escape a prevailing drought. The 2004, the human population in 13 soums of the rapid population increase in Dalangazdad and two provinces increased from 41,072 to 62,735 Sainshand primarily reflects movement by younger persons (53 percent). As noted in Figure 2.3, the persons seeking jobs and opportunities. most dramatic increase in human population occurred from 1985 to 1995, and was mostly due to population increases in Sainshand (Dornogov Land and Water Resources provincial center) and Dalanzadgad (Omnogov provincial center). The current population of Total SGR land area is 349.6 square kilometers, Dundogov Province is more dynamic as many which is approximately 22 percent of Mongolia's land area, and approximately 50 percent of the en- tire Gobi Region. The southern SGR border forms part of the international boundary with China. Figure 2.2. Human Population Trend in The presence and location of the border will be Mongolia 1950­2005 a major factor influencing economic develop- ment and conservation of natural resources in the Pre-collective Collective Post-collective 3,000,000 region. China will be a major driver of economic development because of its need to obtain access 2,500,000 to the unexploited mineral wealth of the region. 2,000,000 Inner Mongolia is already the primary destination of livestock products, especially cashmere wool, 1,500,000 produced by livestock in the SGR. 1,000,000 500,000 Geology and Topography 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 The geology of the SGR is highly variable and Total Rural Urban important as geology is a substrate layer from Source: FAOSTAT (2005). which other layers develop and is closely correlated 4 Environment and Natural Resources with underground and surface water. Geological tion highlands and plateaus forming the boundary features affect animal behavior and security and between Inner Mongolia and traditional China. If are linked to minerals and precious metals, which viewed from a land form and topographic per- potentially lead to mining and other forms of spective without regard for artificially imposed resource exploitation. boundaries, the SGR is in the northeastern corner of the Gobi Desert Basin. While most of Mongolia lies at elevations above 1,500 meters, the SGR is characterized by lower elevation basins and ranges. The major topo- Water Resources graphic difference between the eastern and western portions of the SGR is increasing elevation and Mongolia has abundant water resources in the broader desert basins as the eastern extension of northern portion of the country (Johnson and the Altai Mountains are encountered. Mongolia's others 2006a). In addition to natural springs, lowest elevation occurs in the eastern part of the streams, and rivers, Mongolia has more than 3,000 SGR and the terrain gains in elevation toward lakes and ponds, of which 80 percent are saline. the western portion. In the eastern portion, SGR Almost 65 percent of Mongolia has no open water topography consists of low elevation ranges of the sources. In these areas, humans and livestock Gobi Mountains, which are separated by broad, depend on wells for drinking water. About 32 per- shrub-dominated desert basins (Figure 2.4). In cent of exploitable underground water resources the western portion of the region, the eastward occur in the Gobi Desert, especially in the SGR extension of the Altai Mountains and westward (Figure 2.5). extension of the desert valleys creates a topography with higher, more rugged mountains and broader Water in the SGR is a critical resource for hu- gravel plains. man occupation, livestock production, and wild- life habitat. Comparatively, the SGR has very little The Gobi Desert, directly south of the border surface water. Dundgov Province has few natural between Mongolia and China, has even lower springs or surface water. Most springs in Dorno- elevation that gradually grades to the higher eleva- gov and Omnogov Provinces are concentrated in Figure 2.4. Landsat Image of Basin and Range Topography of the SGR Source: Johnson (2005). 5 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Figure 2.5. Location of Lakes, Springs, and Rivers throughout Mongolia Source: JICA (2003). a few areas, leaving large expanses of the region possible, but water withdrawal is less efficient. without substantial surface water. If water is in a deep aquifer (i.e., greater than 30 meters depth), withdrawal requires pump and Throughout the SGR, most water for humans engine (Sheehy and Byambadorj 2001). Materials and livestock must be obtained from small, hand- for drilled mechanical wells are costly but wells drawn wells. Reportedly, approximately 30,000 are more efficient, and allow more livestock to be small wells exist in the desert and desert steppe watered from a single well with essentially no ad- regions (Kaczensky and others 2006; Figure 2.6). ditional labor costs. During the Socialist period, numerous mechanical wells were built and maintained by the Govern- Within the SGR, most shallow water aqui- ment, which greatly expanded both the temporal fers are located in east-central Dornogov Province and spatial scale of human and livestock use. and eastern Omnogov Province (Figure 2.7). Wa- Most mechanical wells (i.e., engine and pump or ter users in areas with shallow aquifers, including Archimedes screw wells) have fallen into disrepair, herders and livestock, miners, urban residents, or the underground water source has failed. and wildlife (i.e., the Wild Ass has an innate capacity to use its hoofs to dig water holes) have The largest water resource in the SGR is much higher potential access to water compared underground water stored in shallow and deep to regions with water in deep aquifers (JICA aquifers. Accessible groundwater in the SGR is 2003). estimated to be 666.4 million cubic meters per year, with 408.1 million cubic meters per year Since surface water is limited in the SGR, the available during the summer and 204.1 million presence of aquifers, especially shallow aquifers, cubic meters per year available during the winter will be a major factor influencing mining and (JICA 2003). Depth of the aquifer relates closely mineral exploitation, infrastructure development, to accessibility. If water is close to the surface, and expansion of a commercialized livestock less costly hand-drawn and screw-type wells are industry. 6 Environment and Natural Resources Vegetation Resources (1999) reported 2,823 species of vascular plants in Mongolia, including 662 genera and 128 fami- Mongolia, because of its location in Central Asia, lies. Of these species, a relatively large number has a high diversity of flora and fauna. Gubanov are recognized as valuable forage plants for large Figure 2.6. Location and Dispersal of Small, Hand-draft Wells in Southwestern Dornogov Province Source: JICA (2003). Figure 2.7. Location of Shallow Aquifers in the SGR Source: JICA (2003). 7 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass domestic and wild herbivores (Johnson and oth- with agro-ecological zones and natural rangeland ers 2006b, Damiran 2005). Many forage species ecosystems (Annex A). The two agro-ecological retain relatively high nutritive values after growth zones in the SGR are the central and eastern stops, which is important to livestock and wild steppe region, which is the essentially treeless grass herbivores that must rely on senescent vegetation steppe region in central and eastern Mongolia, for more than 200 days of the year. Mongolia and the Gobi Region, which is the semi-arid and and the SGR have a rich diversity of plant species desert section of Mongolia (Annex B). comprising rangeland-type vegetation that is well adapted to the short growing season (60 to 120 days) and to being grazed by large herbivores. Natural Rangeland Ecosystems About 80 percent of Mongolia's total land area Land Vegetation Cover (128.9 million hectares) is comprised of natural rangeland ecosystems that have provided food for Land vegetation cover of Mongolia changes along domestic herbivores for more than 4,000 years a north-south axis (Figure 2.8). The two primary and wild herbivores for millennia. Primary range- land cover types in the SGR are dry steppe and land ecosystems occurring in the SGR are grass desert. The dry steppe occurs along the northern steppe, desert steppe, and desert (Johnson and edge of Dundgov Province and the northern and others 2006a). Grass steppe has annual standing eastern edge of Dornogov Province. Omnogov crop yield ranging from 650 to 1,300 kilograms Province is primarily a desert, although dry steppe per hectare. These areas are dominated by grasses land cover occurs at higher elevation in the east- in the Genera Cleistogenes, Stipa, Aneurolepidium, ward extension of the Altai Mountains. Omnogov Elytrigia, Festuca, Helictotrichon, and Koeleria; vari- Province has relatively large areas of the barren ous Carex species; and forbs including Artemisia, soil/sand cover types. Filifolium, and Allium. The shrub Caragana is often present in the community as a co-dominant. Land cover classifications, which reflect a syn- Most grass steppe is grazed throughout the year by thesis of abiotic and biotic factors, correlate closely all livestock except camel. Gazelle and the Wild Figure 2.8. Land Cover in Mongolia Source: MNE (2008). 8 Environment and Natural Resources Ass are the most common wild herbivore grazers in grass steppe areas. Figure 2.9. Estimated Livestock Numbers in Mongolia, 1961­2003 Desert steppes and deserts generally have Pre-collective Collective Post-collective standing crop yields between 290­380 kilograms 16,000,000 per hectare and a high diversity of vegetation com- 14,000,000 munities, soils, and topography that create forage- 12,000,000 patch grazing opportunities for livestock and wild 10,000,000 herbivores. Desert steppe is dominated by grasses, 8,000,000 Dzud 2000/01 herbs, and shrubs. Desert steppe was formerly the 6,000,000 2001/02 habitat of the Mongolian wild horse (Equus ferris) 4,000,000 and the current habitat of the Wild Ass (Equus 2,000,000 hemionus), Argali bighorn sheep (Ovis ammon), 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 and Saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica). Deserts are dominated by shrubs and perennial forbs and are Camels Cattle Goats Horses Sheep especially suited to grazing by domestic camels, Source: FAOSTAT (2005). sheep, and goats. Deserts provide habitat for a number of large, wild herbivores. The few remain- ing wild camel (Camelus bactrianus ferus) are found off caused by the 2000/02 drought/dzud period in Desert habitat in southwest Omnigov province. (Figure 2.10). Not only have goats replaced sheep as the dominant livestock species but cattle that died during the period have also been replaced Livestock Resources in the national herd by goats. Goats also con- tinue to dominate the SGR livestock herd as they Mongolian livestock numbers remained rather had done so prior to the transition to a market constant from the 1960s to the late 1980s; but economy. During the collective era, provinces with the breakdown of the rural collective system forming the SGR were noted for cashmere wool (i.e., Mon. negdel), subsequent privatization of the production. livestock herd and movement of unemployed urban residents to rural areas to engage in livestock pro- duction, the livestock numbers increased dramati- cally. Prior to the 2000/01 and 2001/02 drought Figure 2.10. Number and Trend of Livestock and dzud period that induced high mortality in the Species in the National Herd Before and After national herd, livestock numbers reached 33.5 mil- the 2001/02 Drought/Dzud lion animals (Figure 2.9). During the drought/dzud period, summer drought followed by harsh winters 18000 killed approximately 9.0 million head of livestock 16000 Drought 14000 and throughout Mongolia. Since 2002, livestock num- Dzud 12000 Head (x 1000) bers again began to rise, reaching approximately 10000 36 million head in 2006 and 37 million head in 8000 2008. Livestock numbers are projected to reach Shift from 6000 Cashmere cattle to goats 40 million head by 2010. The increase is mainly 4000 goats due to higher goat, cattle, and horse numbers, 2000 whereas camel numbers have steadily decreased. 0 Sheep numbers have also decreased as herders have 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 replaced sheep in the herd with goats. Year Horses Cattle/Yak Camels Sheep Goats The trend toward goats dominating the na- tional herd has resumed since the large-scale die- Source: Angerer (2007). 9 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Livestock Production System d. It is relatively self-sufficient in meeting self- consumption needs and producing a market- Extensively managed livestock production in able product, and Mongolia is a viable system and one that is well e. Under normal production conditions, it has adapted to Mongolian conditions. In one form few negative impacts on the natural environ- or another, it has been the dominant livestock ment or wildlife habitat (Details in Annex C). production system for millennia. As practiced by herders in the SGR, managed livestock production The major disadvantages of the SGR livestock is low-cost in terms of inputs; it uses an almost production system are: free, renewable resource (i.e., native forage pro- duced on natural rangeland) and provides food, a. It is a forage supply-driven livestock pro- fiber, and fuel to the Mongolian people through duction system in which temperature and family relationships or the marketplace. By provid- moisture conditions determines, during a ing products for domestic and international trade, short period of forage growth, the supply of it is a major component of the developing market- animal feed for the entire year irrespective of based economic system (Nixson and Walters animal needs. 2006; Sheehy 1996). b. It is subject to natural climate-related catas- trophe that can cause widespread livestock Privatization of livestock ownership and mortality in the short term and reduce animal production for a market economy have increased and pasture productivity in the long term. the level of uncertainty and amount of risk to c. Almost no inputs (feed, veterinary care, mar- which individual or groups of herders must keting opportunities) are available to support respond in making decisions relative to livestock extensively managed livestock production and production and use of natural resources. The relieve livestock pressure on regional range- risk and uncertainty normally associated with land. livestock production itself is being compounded d. Herders tend to respond to market incentives by new factors including (a) the concentration by increasing livestock numbers and changing and expansion of livestock numbers, (b) decrease herd structure to cashmere goats. The change in the number of herding families, (c) changes in numbers and herd structure can lead to in customary herder institutions, (d) uncertain- catastrophic losses among the herd population ties from the marketplace and government, and in the event of natural and commonly occur- (e) increased potential for conflict over use of ring weather events and as livestock numbers pasture resources. increase and herd structure changes, opportu- nities for conservation of wildlife and natural In the SGR, the extensively managed, pastoral ecosystems decrease. livestock production system as it now exists pres- ents a number of advantages and disadvantages relative to economic development and conserva- Natural Versus Industrial Livestock tion of wildlife and natural ecosystems. Economies The major advantages of the SGR livestock Further examination of the Mongolian livestock production system are: production system in the context of natural economies and industrial economies is a useful a. It is a low input, low cost system based on us- mechanism for relating livestock production in ing renewable and monetarily free resources; the Southern Gobi Region (SGR) to issues of b. The production system has adapted itself to sustainable economic development (Annex C). the Gobi Region's environmental conditions; In an industrial economy: i) the natural resource c. It continues to supply meat and off-take prod- base is overlaid and artificially divided by politi- ucts desired by the Mongolian population; cal and administrative hierarchies, ii) competition 10 Environment and Natural Resources exists among the artificial divisions for purposes of and potentially prosper. However, herders that economic gain, iii) a well-developed production continue to operate within the natural economy infrastructure exists and is driven by fossil fuels will eventually fail or be forced out of livestock and capital inputs, iv) large-scale and vertically production as they lose capacity to respond to in- integrated production facilities favoring monocul- creasing financial and environmental risk imposed ture production exist, and v) spheres of compet- by economic development and the dominating ing but independent economic interests develop. industrial economy. The cumulative impact of dis- Conversely, in a natural economy: i) organization advantages associated with industrial development is by natural units of the landscape with boundar- will adversely affect sustainability of the livestock ies imposed by natural constraints, ii) the largest production system and rangeland resources. part of the production infrastructure is invis- ible, iii) production activities are driven by solar energy and the need to reproduce, iv) production Livestock and Wild Herbivore Adaptability is dispersed among small units, v) production activities are circular and renewable, vi) consump- Livestock species present in the SGR herd re- tive use and recycling of production prevails, and flect differences in rangeland capacity and spe- vii) natural resources are viewed as connected cies adaptability to the different land cover types habitats for use rather than exploitation. (Figure 2.11). With the SGR, the environmental characteristics of the desert steppe and desert The pastoral livestock production system in provide most suitable habitat for camel, sheep, the Southern Gobi Region presently continues and goats (Annex B). Although livestock herders to respond to constraints and opportunities of a in the SGR have followed the trend toward higher natural economy relative to animal production goat numbers as a percentage of the national herd, and use of resources but is beginning to acquire they have also retained relatively high numbers of characteristics of an industrial economy relative to horses and cattle in the regional herd. Dry steppe product marketing. For example, the shift in herd rangeland in the northern part of the Southern structure to Cashmere goats is more characteristic Gobi and along the Chinese border does provide of an industrial economy than a natural economy suitable habitat for these livestock species (Authors because the shift occurred for economic reasons personal observation 2005­2007). rather than reasons related to environmental sustainability. The natural economies have con- siderable more potential to respond effectively to long-term climate change and other perturbations compared to industrial economies which are also Figure 2.11. Regional Distribution of a major factor inducing climate change. However, Mongolian Livestock Species the partial adaption of the Mongolian pastoral 4,500 livestock production system to the context of an 4,000 industrial economy (i.e., overstocking and a herd 3,500 structure dominated by goats) has also diminished 3,000 Head (000s) the capacity of the livestock producer to respond 2,500 to climate change. 2,000 1,500 1,000 Externally induced stimulants originating 500 from new economic development and political 0 paradigms will rapidly change the nature of the Western Forest Central Eastern Steppe Southern SGR pastoral livestock production system. Those Land Cover Type herders that have the capacity to adapt live- Camel Horse Cattle Sheep Goat stock production to the industrial economy that results from economic development will survive Source: NSO (2005) and ADB (2007). 11 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Between 1990 and 2000, livestock numbers livestock, are commonly observed on rangelands in the SGR increased from 761,973 to 1,121,095 of the SGR. A 2003 census of three large wild head (47 percent increase) following the collapse herbivore populations in southwestern Dornogov of livestock collectives (Figure 2.12). Similar to the Province indicated the importance of the SGR as national situation, the increase in livestock num- habitat for large wild herbivores (Table 2.1). bers corresponded with a change in livestock com- position. The most dramatic shift occurred in goats Prior to the end of the Socialist period in and camels with the percentage of goats increasing 1990, most populations of large wild herbivore from 30 percent in 1970 to 58 percent in 2004, species found in Mongolia were relatively healthy. and the percentage of camels decreasing from 18 Hunting and taking of fish and wildlife species percent to 6 percent during the same period. was tightly controlled by the state; access to fire- arms was limited to herders who needed to protect Large wild herbivores, which are most likely livestock against large predators, especially wolves; to compete for habitat and forage with domestic and few people, whether urban or rural, had any Figure 2.12. Population Development (since 1985) and Livestock Numbers (since 1970) 1,400,000 70,000 1,200,000 60,000 Human Population Livestock numbers 1,000,000 50,000 800,000 40,000 600,000 30,000 400,000 20,000 200,000 10,000 0 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 Years Livestock Humans Source: NSO (2005). Table 2.1. Partial Census of Large Wild Herbivore Populations in SGR Soum Wild Ass Ibex Argali Mandakh 700 40 60 Saihandulaan 300 50 Ulaanbadrach 600 120 Khatanbulag 4,000 30 80 Khuvsgul 6,222 472 Erdene 550 78 Total 12,372 70 860 Source: Dornogov Office of Statistics (2005). 12 Environment and Natural Resources inclination to sport hunt or fish (Kaczensky and Mandalk county in west-central Dornogov Prov- others 2006). ince has banned legal hunting to allow recovery of local populations (Personal communication with Over the past 17 years, with the transition to Mandalk County Environmental Inspector, 2007). capitalism and a market economy, the situation The 2005­2007 study of the Wild Ass in the same has changed. Populations of large wild herbivore area indicated that legal and illegal hunting is the species are legally and illegally being over-hunted, main cause of declining large wild herbivore popu- or captured and sold; illicit export and sale of lations (Kaczensky and others 2006). birds of prey is occurring; as well as illegal taking of rare fish species (Annex D). Although laws exist to protect fish and wildlife species, and provincial Overgrazing Impacts on Rangeland and county environmental inspectors are respon- Ecosystems sible for enforcing these regulations, the illegal take of these species continues (Kaczensky and There seems to be a general consensus among others 2006). herders, government officials, donor institutions, and the public that Mongolian rangeland has, Species that are currently experiencing major and is, degrading from a combination of livestock declines include the red deer, snow leopard, Wild overuse and increasing aridity throughout Mongo- Ass, Siberian musk deer and Argali bighorn sheep. lia. Although empirical data to support this con- The population declines have been extremely sensus is limited, a 2008 re-survey of 60 ecological rapid, as is shown by the 92 percent decline of red monitoring plots established in Desert and Forest deer (i.e., Mongolian elk) over an 18 year period Steppe ecological zones in 1997 supports this (Wingard and Zahler, 2006). The prospects are contention (Sheehy and Damiran 2009). even more alarming for other species. In the last five years, the Saiga antelope has declined from In the Desert Zone, re-survey of 27 monitor- more than 5,000 to fewer than 800, and the Argali ing sites indicated that: i) plant species present in bighorn sheep population has declined by 75 per- 1997 had declined by 33%, ii) grasses and forbs cent in 16 years (Wingard and Zahler 2006) had highest loss of presence on winter and sum- mer pastures, iii) ground surface cover of bare soil Many species, such as the Mongolian Saiga and rock had increased while cover of vegetation antelope, wild camel and Gobi bear have been and plant litter had decreased, and iv) livestock reduced to such small populations that they are preferred and desirable plant species had high loss highly threatened (Mech and Boitani 2008). It is of presence on all seasonal pastures. estimated that there are only 460 wild camels in Mongolia and less than 1,000 globally. The Gobi In the Forest Steppe Zone, re-survey of 33 bear is even more threatened with less than 50 monitoring sites indicated that: i) plant species remaining. Overall, 79 percent of large herbivores present in 1997 had declined by more than 33%, and 12 percent of carnivores in Mongolia are now ii) forb plant species had highest loss of presence threatened with extinction. in all seasonal pastures, iii) ground surface cover of bare soil and rock had increased while cover Large wild herbivore populations in the SGR of vegetation and plant litter had decreased, and are also in decline from legal and illegal over-hunt- iv) plants undesirable to livestock had highest loss ing and changes affecting their habitat The popu- of presence on all seasonal pastures but relative lation center of the Wild Ass is in the SGR but its composition of preferred, desirable, undesir- population numbers during the next 10 years are able and toxic plants comprising the forage base expected to decline rapidly from illegal hunting remained unchanged between 1997 and 2008. and deterioration of their habitat (Kaczensky and others 2006). Argali bighorn sheep populations Based on ecological trend at the two zonal have been legally over-hunted to the extent that study areas, both Desert and Forest Steppe 13 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass rangeland had declined from good and fair con- dry Central Asian desert winds from the south. As dition to poor and very poor ecological condi- a result, Mongolia has extremely cold, dry winters tion (Figure 2.13). Rangeland in the two zones and dry, cold, and windy springs. Most precipita- was becoming increasingly degraded and, unless tion occurs during mid-June to the end of August. changes in management relative to herd structure Mean annual precipitation decreases from north and stocking rate are implemented soon, the to south. rate at which rangeland is being degraded will accelerate. Climatic attributes of the SGR include (a) mean annual temperature between 0.0 degrees Two primary change factors caused rangeland and 2.5 degrees Centigrade (C) with minimum degradation in Desert and Forest Steppe Zones temperature in January (-20 degrees C) and between 1997 and 2008. One factor was the maximum temperature (23 degrees C) in July; (b) increase in total livestock numbers and domi- between 110 and 140 frost-free days; (c) variable nance of herd structure by goats. Discussions with precipitation between 100 and 250 millime- livestock herders and local government officials ters; (d) snow depth ranging between 5 and 10 indicated that study areas were severely affected millimeters; and (e) wind speed between 2 and by the 2001/02 drought/dzud during which 8 meters per second. Temperature and precipita- substantial numbers of livestock died. In addition tion affect rangeland ecological condition and use to the direct impacts, officials in both study areas of rangeland by large herbivores. Approximately indicated that climate drying was affecting pasture 100­150 millimeters of annual precipitation oc- ecological condition and livestock production in curs in the steppe desert; and 50­100 millimeters the sum. Changes included: i) insufficient precipi- in the desert region. However, droughts induced tation or precipitation at inappropriate times, ii) a by extended periods of low or no precipitation, lack of adequate precipitation was causing streams, often for several consecutive years, are common in lakes and springs to dry-up, and iii) productivity the SGR. of vegetation throughout the soum was declin- ing. A second change factor was the gradual but persistent increase in aridity from insufficient precipitation during the 11 year interval between measurements. The primary impact of climate Figure 2.13. Changes In Desert Zone (DZ) and change relative to rangeland degradation in both Forest Steppe Zone (FS) Ecological Condition the Desert and Forest Steppe study areas was during the 11 Year Interval between Macroplot increasing aridity. Measurements in 1997 and 2008 25 Weather and Climate Change 20 15 No. sites Mongolia's climate is largely defined by its prox- imity to major mountain systems, and less so by 10 its central continental position and far distance from oceans. Mountain ranges in the west and 5 northwest portion of Mongolia intercept atmo- 0 spheric flows carrying moisture from the Atlan- DZ1997 DZ2008 FS1997 FS2008 tic Ocean. Monsoonal storms from the Pacific Good 12 5 14 5 Ocean fade rapidly and their influence is gener- Fair 13 0 15 10 ally considered to be between 110° to 120° east Poor 2 21 5 12 Very poor 0 1 0 6 latitude, which covers only the eastern portion of Mongolia (i.e., Mongolia lies between 87o41' and Condition status 119o56' east latitude). This exposes Mongolia to Source: Sheehy and Damiran 2009. 14 Environment and Natural Resources Precipitation Figure 2.14. Cumulative Centimeters of Precipitation has a major influence on the devel- Annual Precipitation by Season in Southwest opment of habitats and the distribution of animals Dornogov Province within habitats. Although a number of abiotic 15.00 and biotic factors intersect to form habitats and influence animal distribution, precipitation in the SGR is unquestionably the single most important 10.00 climate factor influencing both domestic and wild herbivore distribution. 5.00 Precipitation influences both the amount and timing of annual forage growth. Without adequate 0 amount and seasonal availability of precipita- Winter Spring Summer Fall tion in the form of rain or snow, inducement of 2005 0.19 2.89 7.07 7.29 drought may decrease forage growth across dif- 2006 0.21 3.66 10.32 10.60 ferent habitats. Inadequate precipitation can also 2007 0.46 3.51 8.15 8.53 diminish the availability of surface water, which Source: World Bank (2008). reduces the amount of drinking water available to both livestock and wild herbivores. Lower forage and water availability can both directly and indi- Figure 2.15. Seasonal Precipitation in the rectly increase potential conflict between domestic Southeast Gobi during 2005 livestock and wildlife that co-use the same range- land habitat (Kaczensky and others 2006). 10.00 8.00 The SGR has considerable annual and seasonal precipitation variation (Figure 2.14). Centimeters 6.00 Annual precipitation between 2005 and 2007 in the southeastern area of the SGR ranged from 4.00 7.29 to 10.60 centimeters (Figure 2.15). In each of the three years (2005­2007) measured, highest 2.00 moisture accumulation occurred during the spring 0.00 and summer seasons. Winter Spring Summer Fall Season In 2005, considerable annual variation existed South Central North in the amount of seasonal precipitation occurring Source: Compiled from C-Morph data collected by the Gobi Forage Project. throughout the sub-region (Figure 2.15). The northern sub-region received more precipitation during spring, summer, and fall seasons than the The variation in annual precipitation has central and southern portions. The latter two implications in both local and regional areas regions received approximately the same amount (Figure 2.16). Most precipitation events during of precipitation (6 to 7 centimeters), and both the summer season of highest moisture accumula- regions had proportional accumulation of pre- tion are the result of localized convection storms. cipitation during each season. In 2005, accumu- Random distribution of precipitation tends to lated precipitation at the end of each season was create extremely local areas of high vegetation lower compared to accumulated precipitation in growth and higher surface water availability. The 2006 and 2007. The lack of precipitation during annual variation in precipitation affects surface the spring and summer season of 2005 induced water and vegetation productivity throughout the drought throughout much of the SGR. SGR and influences wild herbivore and livestock 15 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Figure 2.16. Annual Differences in Vegetation Growth Related to the Amount of Precipitation Source: World Bank (2003). productivity, distribution, and degree of potential gradually expanding their area northward into dry conflict for habitat. steppe and grass steppe land cover types, at least partially due to higher temperatures and less an- nual moisture accumulation (World Bank 2003). Climate Impacts The short-term impact of climate on large Although the debate on climate change and how herbivores is most often directly expressed to respond to climate change continues, there is through summer drought and severe winter little doubt that a warming trend is occurring. weather. A drought summer followed by a severe In Mongolia during the previous 60 years, mean winter is not uncommon, and both occurring annual air temperature reportedly has increased by sequentially can be extremely detrimental to 1.6 degrees C. If this pattern of change contin- livestock and large herbivore wildlife. Consecu- ues, by 2040 the mean summer temperatures are tive years of summer drought and severe winter predicted to increase by 1.0 degrees to 3.0 degrees weather can cause high mortality rates among C, mean winter temperatures by 1.4 degrees to populations of both large herbivore wildlife 3.6 degrees C, and mean annual temperatures by and livestock, as happened in the 2001­2002 1.8 degrees to 2.8 degrees C during the projected drought/dzud years (Table 2.2) when over 9 mil- time period (Annex E). Relative to the SGR, there lion head of livestock and an unknown number of is some concern that desert land cover types are large herbivore wildlife died. 16 Environment and Natural Resources Table 2.2. Livestock Mortalities during Mongolian Drought/Dzud Years Animal mortality Adult stock Young stock Year Type of disaster Coverage (%) Million % Million % 44­45 Drought + dzud 9 aimags (65%) 8.1 33.2 1.1 17 54­55 Dzud 9 aimags 1.9 8.2 0.3 4 56­57 Dzud 11 aimags 1.5 6.2 0.9 12 67­68 Drought + dzud 13 aimags (80%) 2.7 11.9 1.7 21.6 76­77 Dzud 15 aimags, 116 soums (90%) 2 8.6 1.6 10.7 86­87 Dzud 11 aimags, 198 soums (80%) 0.8 3.6 0.9 9 93 Dzud 3 aimags, 30 soums 1.6 6.4 1.2 13 96­97 Dzud 11 aimags, 69 soums 0.6 2.1 0.5 5.4 99­2000 Drought + dzud 12 aimags, 157 soums 2.8 8.6 1.2 12.1 2000­01 Drought + dzud 4.1 13.8 -- -- The entire SGR is especially susceptible to conditions of natural rangeland ecosystems in the drought and dzud. The northern part of Dundgov area (Sheehy and Byambadorj 2001). Herbaceous Province has had almost continuous drought since grasses and forbs appear to be heavily over-grazed; 1999. In this area, the combination of drought shrubs over large areas of rangeland are over- and high livestock numbers prior to and during browsed and in some areas dying; and rangeland the early drought period has affected ecological in general appears to be degraded. 17 3. Development of the Southern Gobi Region T he sparsely populated SGR is enor- tion of natural ecosystems, but in the long term it mous and richly endowed with could contribute to and accelerate climate change. mineral wealth. The SGR is served by few transport links and suffers from decreased rainfall and limited water availability. It Transportation also supports a growing human population that includes livestock herders who maintain a difficult Probable SGR transportation developments are grip on their livelihood after enduring a collapsed expansion of the existing rail and road transporta- economy. Mongolia's transition to a privatized tion corridor in Dornogov Province, construction market economy and development of mines of new railroads and hard-surfaced roads to sup- proposed in the region, together with their associ- port large-scale mineral exploitation, and improved ated infrastructure needs and human population region-wide air service (Figures 3.1 and 3.2). movement, could cause significant impacts on the regional environment and the many wide-ranging, threatened animal species. It is critical that eco- Communication nomic development and infrastructure construc- tion be sensitive to the needs of wildlife, pastoral Satellite-based communication systems are herders and livestock, and sustainability of natural expected to provide cell phone coverage to all rangeland ecosystems in the SGR. counties of Mongolia within two years. Satellite phone systems are already available but expen- sive, and provincial centers are connected to the Regional Development Internet. Most rural residents already have satellite television and radio connections. Access by rural The types of development anticipated in the SGR residents to real-time information will be a key include physical infrastructure (i.e., transporta- element in SGR development. tion and communication); resources (i.e., min- ing, energy generation, water use); and livestock production. These developments could potentially Mining improve economic livelihoods of SGR residents, but they also have potential to degrade the envi- Large-scale exploitation of minerals and coal is ronment. Unrestrained economic development already occurring close to the major transportation without functioning regulatory mechanisms will corridor in Dornogov Province (Figure 3.3). Large be a major cause of the degradation of natural projects to extract precious metals, high-value rangeland ecosystem. In the short term, economic minerals, and coal for local energy generation and development may induce site-specific degrada- export have been proposed throughout the SGR. 19 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Figure 3.1. Unimproved Road Network in Western Dornogov Province, Characteristic of SGR Source: Johnson (2005). Figure 3.2. LANDSAT View of Trans-Mongolia Railroad and Road Traffic Impacts at Sainshand in Dornogov Province Source: Johnson (2005). 20 Development of the Southern Gobi Region holds have either wind or solar power-generated Figure 3.3. Coal Mine Tailing Piles in Dundgov electricity sufficient for their personal needs. Most Province counties in the region also have diesel-powered generation of electricity. Proposals to build large- scale wind and solar farms can be expected in the future. Large-scale energy generation proposed by Tavan Tolgoi mine complex development will focus on exportation of processed coal/coke or power directly to China and will require road and rail construction, power plants, and strip mining (Annex F). Geo-thermal power generation is pos- sible in the SGR, and projects to tap underground water aquifers have been proposed (JICA 2003). Water Source: C. M. Sheehy (2005). Water is a critical resource for all forms of life and production activities in the SGR. Processes to extract minerals, precious metals, and coal require Small-scale precious metal mining, usually illegal, substantial and reliable sources of water. Humans is already occurring throughout the region. and animals need reliable sources of fresh drink- ing water, usually on a daily basis, to live in the region. Currently, most humans and domestic Energy Generation livestock rely on wells to meet water requirements while large herbivore wildlife relies almost exclu- Small-scale solar and wind power generation is sively on surface or near-surface water sources well established in the SGR. Most rural house- (Figure 3.4). The anticipated scale of infrastructure Figure 3.4. Small Lakes and Ponds in Eastern SGR Used Extensively by Livestock and Wild Herbivores to Obtain Drinking Water (LANDSAT Image) Source: Johnson (2005). 21 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass development will require access to large quantities facilities. As livestock production continues to of water and will require additional infrastructure change from subsistence based to commercialized, development to extract water from underground herders will by necessity embrace infrastructure aquifers (JICA 2003). developments that improve their competitiveness in the market place. Livestock Production Tourism Livestock production remains the dominant economic activity for a majority of SGR residents Tourism is a fast-growing industry in the SGR, es- (Figures 3.5 and 3.6). Access to potable water is the pecially in Omnigov Province. The industry's need most significant limiting factor to livestock produc- for infrastructure is minimal because the current tion in the region (Kaczensky and others 2006). clientele prefers the existing small hotels and tour- Since 2000, a key focus of government and donor ist camps that are in or near provincial centers and projects in the region has been rehabilitating exist- engages in activities that have negligible impact on ing mechanical wells and expanding well coverage wildlife or natural resources. Tourism, especially to rangeland without livestock drinking water. as it becomes more commercially oriented and as the cliental diversity expands, will benefit from in- Other potential infrastructure needs of com- frastructure development by other industries (i.e., mercialized livestock production include fencing, transportation, communication, and electricity permanent or modern mobile dwellings, livestock generation) and develop its own infrastructure to shelters, livestock health inputs, and supplemen- meet client needs (e.g., hotels, new and improved tary animal feed. The livestock production system roads, golf courses). In the longer-term develop- will also benefit from infrastructure development ment, commercialized SGR tourism will require not directly related to livestock production, such improved infrastructure and increasing use of as expanded transportation and communication water and other critical resources. Figure 3.5. Concentrated Livestock Use of Rangeland Near a Functioning Production Well Source: Johnson (2005). Note: The yellow dots are GPS points indicating livestock movement and distribution around the well during the summer of 2005. 22 Development of the Southern Gobi Region large herbivore wildlife. Two areas which have Figure 3.6. An Abandoned Production Well in been subject to accelerated development are the the Eastern SGR Intermountain Region of western North America and the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region of China. Despite vastly different social, cultural, economic, and political histories, the 20th Cen- tury development path of the two regions has been similar, although under different timeframes and with potentially different outcomes since development continues to occur in both areas. A brief comparison of development pathways may provide valuable insights to the SGR. Intermountain Region (North America). The Intermountain Region is a large, internally Source: C.M. Sheehy (2006). drained basin lying between the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Mountains to the west and the Rocky Mountains to the east. Native fauna and flora, Impact of Development including large herbivorous wildlife, is similar to the genus and species found in the SGR. Livestock Four categories of impact on natural ecosystems production, based on cattle, sheep, and horses, is associated with development in the SGR are: family based and pastoral in nature and remains a key industry in the region. A majority of the O Direct impact from infrastructure establish- rangeland is public land managed and regulated ment and operation, by Federal Government agencies. Mining of pre- O Direct impact that accelerates decline of large cious metals from both public and private land is wild herbivore populations, a major industry and a major contributor to the O Short-term, direct impact that deteriorates/ region's economy. degrades critical habitat components for pas- toral livestock and wild herbivores, and A select list of major events forming and O Long-term, indirect impacts on natural sys- motivating development in the Intermountain tems from accelerated climate change. Region from the late 19th to the early 21st Century includes the following: It is also probable that impact will be syn- ergistic and exponential in its effect on current O Control and curtailment of indigenous uses and users of natural rangeland ecosystems. peoples' activities ( before 1900); The impact of most anticipated development on O Settlement of the region by non-native people natural ecosystems will be negative unless appro- (1850 to present); priate safeguards to protect natural ecosystems, O Over harvest of wildlife, especially large wildlife, and pastoral livestock production are in herbivore wildlife and large predators (1830­ place and functional prior to the development 1920); (Table 3.1). O Open access farming and large-scale stock growing (1850­1930); O Government dispersal and fragmentation of Development Perspectives land resources through privatization of public land (1870­1930); Accelerated development has occurred in other O Degradation and abandonment of dispersed regions globally that have a similar natural re- land by small-scale farmers and stockmen source base, livestock production tradition, and (1920-present); 23 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Table 3.1. Development Impact on Wild Herbivores and Pastoral Livestock Production in SGR Impact on pastoral livestock Development Type Impact on large wild herbivores production Transportation Hard surface roads · Interfere with mobility and decrease · Improve herder access to inputs and infrastructure and railroads to access to habitat, especially Wild Ass and services and improve direct marketing support industrial gazelle which are highly mobile animals of livestock and products (positive). development, espe- (negative). · Support commercialization of livestock cially mining · Unfenced roads potentially will increase production (positive/negative). mortality of animals interacting with · Improve livelihood sustainability of vehicles traveling at high speed (negative). herders in a market economy (positive). · Improve human access to wildlife for legal · Justify need for vehicle acquisition and/ and illegal hunting, wildlife viewing, and or improvement of public transporta- eco-tourism (negative/positive). tion (negative). · Degradation and fragmentation of wildlife · Increase conflict over access to natural habitat (negative). resources (negative). Air service in SGR · Increase rate of human intrusion and · Improve rural links with urban centers development (negative). to access information, health care, and · Increase potential for eco-tourism and economic opportunities (positive). wildlife viewing (positive). Communication · Increase rate of human intrusion and · Improve herder access to inputs and development (negative). services and improve direct marketing · Increase potential for eco-tourism and of livestock and products (positive). wildlife viewing (positive). Mining Legal and illegal · Increase rate of human intrusion and · Improve herder potential for local mar- mineral exploitation development (negative). keting of livestock and livestock off-take at different scales · Increase pressure on large herbivorous products (positive). wildlife from poaching and illegal hunting · Potential to improve herders' livelihood (negative). and access to health and education · Loss of habitat dependent on scale and services (positive). location of mineral extraction locations (negative). Energy generation Solar power Impact dependent on scale of solar power Impact dependent on scale of solar generation development as: power development as: · large-scale "solar farms" disrupting large · large-scale "solar farms" disrupt activi- areas (negative). ties of local livestock herders and cause · small-scale household solar (neutral/ loss of access to rangeland without negative). gaining any direct benefits from the electricity generated (negative) · small-scale solar power could poten- tially benefit herder's livelihood by increasing access to electricity (positive/ neutral/negative). Wind power Same as for solar power generation (neutral/ Same as for solar power generation generation. negative). (positive/neutral/negative). (continued on next page) 24 Development of the Southern Gobi Region Table 3.1. Development Impact on Wild Herbivores and Pastoral Livestock Production in SGR (continued) Impact on pastoral livestock Development Type Impact on large wild herbivores production Livestock Production Development of · Mechanical wells as a source of human and · Mechanical wells will reduce labor livestock water livestock water will potentially increase associated with watering livestock and sources competition for rangeland resources expand rangeland areas suitable for between livestock and wild herbivores and grazing by livestock (positive). result in conflict (negative). Commercialization · Potential for wildlife, especially highly · Many herders have already shifted from of production mobile herbivores that form large herds, to subsistence-based livestock produc- be regarded as competing with livestock tion to commercial production (i.e., for scarce natural resources and decreasing cashmere wool) (neutral). profit potentials (negative/neutral). · The high value of cashmere is driving change herd structure and causing increased financial and environmental risk being assumed by herders (nega- tive/neutral). Improved livestock · A further increase in livestock numbers be- · Vaccines to prevent livestock diseases health services yond carrying capacity would (i) potentially such as Foot & Mouth Disease (FMD), and supplemental increase competition between livestock and Brucellosis, and other contagious feeding. large wild herbivores for forage and habitat diseases will reduce animal mortalities; and (ii) increase degradation of rangeland provision of supplemental feed to live- quality (negative). stock during winter and spring seasons and availability of veterinary health services will improve survival and birth rates (positive). Large herbivore Legal and illegal · As population associated with new · As populations of large herbivorous population decline over-hunting by development increases, and with continued wildlife continue to decline, competi- non-residents open access to firearms and vehicles, hunt- tion between livestock and wildlife ing of large wild herbivores is anticipated to for natural resources will decline further increase over current levels that are (negative). already having a negative impact on large herbivore wildlife in the SGR (negative). O National government-supported improve- O Public land change in emphasis from single ments to land and vegetation for economic economic use (i.e., stock growing, logging, uses (1950­1980); recreation) to sustainable multiple uses (1970 O Ownership consolidation of privately owned to present); dispersed land (1940 to present); O Public and private land use change in empha- O Development, application, and enforcement sis from economic purpose to environmental of regulations on use of public lands and purpose, including restoration of wildlife wildlife (1900 to present); populations and habitat (1980 to present); O Accelerated government and private infra- O Failure of traditional, natural resource- structure development (1950 to present); dependent communities and family-based 25 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass agricultural production as a result of population tion (household contracts) of public land demographic shifts, accumulation of wealth (1990­2000); and political power in urban areas, and global- O Degradation and abandonment of dispersed ization of food production (1960 to present); land by small-scale farmers and stockmen O Consolidation and ownership of the rural (1980 to present); private land base by speculators, new forms of O National government-supported improve- absentee owners, and corporate-industrialized ments to land and vegetation for economic agricultural production companies (1980 to uses (1950­1980); present). O Consolidation of household contracted dis- persed land (1990 to present); Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region (China). O Development without application and The Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region enforcement of regulations on use of public includes the southern portion of the desert basin lands and wildlife (1980­2000); that is dominated by the Gobi Desert. The south- O Accelerated government and private infra- ern boundaries of the three Mongolian provinces structure development (1990 to present); comprising the SGR form a portion of the inter- O Public land change in emphasis from family- national boundary between China and Mongolia. based, single economic use (i.e., stock grow- The physical boundary of the southern edge of ing and farming) to corporate single econom- the Gobi Basin in China is formed by the Qilien ic use (1990 to present); Mountains and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in Gansu O Public land use change in emphasis from Province, the Loess Plateau highlands, and the Kh- strictly economic purpose to partial environ- inggan Mountains in Inner Mongolia. The native mental purpose, including restoration of wild- fauna and flora, including large herbivorous wild- life populations and habitat (2000 to present); life, includes most of the same genus and species O Failure of traditional, natural resource-depen- found in the SGR. Livestock production, based dent communities and family-based agricul- on cattle, sheep, goats, horses, and camel, has been tural production as a result of forced demo- family based and pastoral in nature except during graphic shifts, accumulation of wealth and the collective period. A majority of the rangeland political power in urban areas, and globaliza- is public land managed and regulated by agencies tion of food production (1980 to present); of the Chinese Government. O Consolidation and control of the rural land base by speculators, new forms of absentee A select list of major events forming and owners, and corporate-industrialized produc- motivating development in the Inner Mongolian tion companies (2000 to present). Autonomous Region from the late 19th to the early 21st Century includes the following: In both the Intermountain and Inner Mon- golian Regions, economic development has taken O Control and activity curtailment of the indig- precedence over environmental sustainability. In enous Mongolian people by foreign powers the Intermountain Region, efforts to restore a bal- (before 1900 to present); ance between economic development and environ- O Settlement of the region by Han farmers mental sustainability are on-going but have high (before 1850 to present); social and economic costs to rural communities O Over-harvest and extirpation of wildlife, that formerly supported livestock production and especially large herbivorous wildlife and large exploitative industries in the region. The increasing predators (before 1830 to present); global need for minerals and energy is again put- O Open access farming and large-scale stock ting focus on economic development of the region growing via collectives and state farms but with strong environmental controls in place. In (1950­1980); Inner Mongolia, environmental controls have been O Government dispersal and fragmentation formulated but their application and enforcement of land resources through quasi-privatiza- is weak, and uncontrolled economic development 26 Development of the Southern Gobi Region continues to take precedence over environmental to continue in the future (Annex F). Illegal devel- sustainability. In order to restore environmental sta- opment of small-scale, non-regulated mining is bility to natural ecosystems, current Chinese policy already occurring throughout the SGR. Although is focused on moving rural residents to urban areas addressing Mongolia in general, Reading and oth- as a method of relieving human pressure on pasture ers (2006) presented an overview of mining-relat- and cropland (Sheehy and others 2006). ed activities that have significance for the SGR: O Mining activity has increased dramatically SGR Development Scenario during the transition period. O In 2004 both foreign and national companies Both the Intermountain Region (North America) already had licenses to explore 29.9 percent of and the Inner Mongolian (China) development Mongolian territory. pathways suggest that current SGR development O Mining represented (in 2006) 15­20 percent trends could have negative consequences for of gross national product and 57 percent of traditional use and users of the region's natural exports. resources. Since establishment of rural livestock O Laws relating to preparation of environmental collectives occurred prior to the transition to a impact assessments, reclamation activities, market economy, change is not new to the SGR; and establishing environmental protection but the rate of change has begun to accelerate, funds with government oversight are not especially since 2002. enforced. O The largest threat to the protected area system The most obvious changes occurring in the from mining arises from government removal SGR include: of land from a "protected" status to allow mineral exploration and extraction. O Physical changes to habitats of large herbi- vores as a result of mineral exploitation and Both legal and illegal mining is a major increasing livestock numbers; economic activity generator in the SGR that can O Infrastructure development to support min- provide short- to medium-term solutions to rural ing, livestock production, and rural popula- poverty and unemployment; access investment tions; funds to strengthen social, economic, and physical O Decline in large wild herbivore populations infrastructures; and strengthen economic activity from legal and illegal hunting and degrada- in other sectors. Although social and economic tion of habitats; outcomes may generally be positive, these impacts O Demographic change in rural populations; may be accompanied by negative environmental O Accumulation of wealth and political decision consequences, including residual open pit, strip making in urban areas; and and shaft mines; mine tailings and extensive O Application of broadly based projects to degraded areas; air, water, and land pollution; resolve Gobi-specific issues without accompa- human intrusion; and exploitation of local natural nying safeguards or application of regulatory resources. Development of the physical infrastruc- measures. ture, especially roads and railroads, will negatively affect large migratory wild herbivores by creating The two development activities having the barriers to movement, facilitating illegal hunting, most severe impact on SGR natural resources will and degrading large herbivore habitats (Kaczensky be (a) exploitation of minerals through mining and others 2006). and (b) increased use of water resources stored in underground aquifers. Water exploitation. Water is the most impor- tant constraint to human and animal presence in Mineral exploitation. The on-going, legal devel- the SGR. Without access to water, large areas of opment of large-scale, regulated mines is expected rangeland are not available for livestock grazing. 27 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Without access to water, economic development implemented along with construction of new at the scale proposed for the Tavan Tolgoi mining wells. and energy generation complex will be unfeasible. Access to water is critical to economic develop- Environmental impacts of water system develop- ment and successful livestock production. ment. Development of wells and water systems can have both positive and negative environmental In the desert steppe and desert regions, lack of impacts on rangeland ecosystems (Sheehy and water wells is a major limiting factor to successful Byambadorj 2001). livestock production and livelihood sustainability. Many of the wells developed during the collective Potential positive impacts: era no longer function because pump and water delivery systems have been destroyed or gravel O More wells and water sources could improve filters used in deep wells no longer function. Only distribution of livestock and thereby reduce 1,000 of the 1,800 wells established in Dorngobi, grazing pressure on local rangeland ecosys- which has virtually no permanent surface water tems. resources, were operable in 2003 (Sheehy and O Living conditions could improve for herders Byambadorj 2001). As a result, only 30 percent and rural residents. of the total pasture area was accessible to livestock O Wildlife could have potential access to water compared to 60.7 percent during the collective if water distribution systems are implemented period. and managed for wildlife as well as livestock. Shallow wells are a natural rationing system Potential negative impacts: for livestock herd size, especially relative to the la- bor requirement needed to water large numbers of O Competition could increase between livestock animals by hand-drawn water from shallow wells. and wildlife for foraging resources and habitat Since most human and livestock populations are in areas formerly without water if livestock already dependent on water from shallow wells, numbers increase in conjunction with water and drought and lack of surface water are the development. common denominator in the Gobi even in nor- O Livestock could degrade native vegetation mal years, developing new wells or rehabilitating and soils in surrounding rangeland if they old wells provides considerable benefit to livestock graze back and forth from newly developed producers in the SGR relative to rangeland access mechanical wells. (Table 3.2), and could be beneficial to wildlife O Livestock could increase pressure on grazing if appropriate water distribution systems were newly accessible rangeland that provides criti- Table 3.2. Water Source Availability and Grazable Pasture Water source Accessible area (km2) Accessible area gained (km2) Springs + lakes 55,903 Springs + lakes + traditional wells 109,461 53,558 Springs + lakes + traditional wells + shaft wells 114,991 5,530 Springs + lakes + traditional wells + shaft wells + production wells 116,793 1,802 Total area gained when rehabilitating all broken wells 60,890 Source: Kaczensky and others (2006). 28 Development of the Southern Gobi Region cal security and habitat to wildlife, especially system level are: i) a decline in yield per rangeland large herbivorous wildlife. unit; ii) a decrease in vegetation cover and height as well as increased exposure of the soil surface; Government and donor projects to rehabili- iii) an increase in the percentage of invasive or tate existing, non-functioning mechanical wells non-selected plants in community species compo- and drill new wells in waterless rangeland areas of sition; and iv) a change in the structure of plant the region are currently being implemented. Map- species (Sheehy and others 2006). ping of wells in 2003 by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Ministry of Na- ture, Environment and Tourism showed that in Livestock-Related Degradation Dornogov Province alone there were over 1,200 deep, mechanical wells with an average of 1 well Degradation of SGR rangeland ecosystems is per 92 square kilometers (JICA 2003; and World caused by a number of factors, including overuse Bank 2006). The development of new mechanical by livestock and large wild herbivores, human wells in waterless rangeland, while immediately intrusion, exploitation of natural resources, and beneficial to the pastoral livestock herder, should climate and weather conditions. The two major be evaluated in the context of reserving these types of degradation associated with livestock are newly accessible rangelands to mitigate drought grazing and small-scale infrastructure development impacts on livestock and wildlife. If used in this (i.e., wells, fences, vehicle tracks, shelters, and context, formerly waterless rangeland would feed or cropland production). Severely degraded improve sustainability of existing livestock rather rangeland is simple to detect. Degradation of than creating an opportunity to increase livestock rangeland surrounding a livestock water source is numbers. obviously caused by overgrazing and trampling but determining the cause of larger scale rangeland degradation can be more complicated as a number Degradation in the Southern Gobi of interacting factors are usually involved. During Region the severe drought/dzud of 2000/01­2001/02, interacting factors were high livestock numbers, Rangeland degradation is influenced by the lack of drought/dzud preparation such as stor- interaction of climate, geology, vegetation type, age of animal feed, and the severity and length of and disturbance caused by humans and animals. the drought and dzud. These factors combined The degradation process reduces vegetation cover, to cause overgrazing and rangeland degrada- yield, and usefulness for livestock and wild herbi- tion across the northern area of the SGR. The vores and exposes soils to wind and water erosion. high livestock mortality directly associated with In the short term, degradation causes natural eco- the drought/dzud and the degradation of highly systems to become unstable; and in the long term, productive rangeland affected the longer-term degradation will eventually impoverish people and livelihood potential of rural residents (Sheehy and animals dependent upon rangeland. Byambadorj 2001). Three key indicators of rangeland degrada- tion on a national/regional level are: i) a decrease Degradation from Economic Development in total area classified as rangeland (e.g., conver- sion of highest productivity rangeland to marginal Economic development activities in the SGR that cropland as has happened throughout Inner relate to rangeland degradation include: i) con- Mongolia) (Sheehy and others 2006); ii) a relative struction of asphalt and concrete hard-top roads, increase in rangeland area that is degraded, deserti- ii) strip and open-pit mines, iii) construction of fied, or salinized; and iii) the increase in degraded new railroads, iv) various forms of air and water rangeland as a percentage of total rangeland. Four pollution including toxic chemicals from min- key indicators of rangeland degradation at the eco- ing operations, and v) over-utilization of shallow 29 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass underground aquifers. Many economic develop- regardless of their domestic or wild herbivore ment activities destroy the natural ecosystem at status. the site rather than degrade it. Even though most economic development activities include plans and In the SGR, the major difference between funds to restore the natural ecosystem after the life wild and domestic large herbivore use of natural of the project, restoring those natural ecosystems rangeland ecosystems is the management and to their prior state seems overwhelming. security provided to domestic livestock by the herder. Management of domestic livestock in the Proposed infrastructure development dur- pastoral production system retains many attributes ing construction of the Tavan Tolgoi mine and of natural system. Large domestic livestock (i.e., power generation complex in Omnogov Province camel, horse, and cattle) are free-roaming grazers provides an example of impending economic de- except when being ridden, used as draft ani- velopment in the SGR and throughout the Gobi mals, or milked. Livestock continue to be moved Desert (Ivanhoe Mines Mongolia 2005). Planned between seasonal pastures and naturally seek development at the complex includes: i) high­ out best foraging opportunities to maintain and voltage power generation from diesel powered improve body condition. Both wild and domestic generators, ii) thermal power plants supplying herbivores are subject to, and similarly affected electricity to China, iii) power transmission lines, by, weather and prevailing climate; and the major iv) exploitation of water aquifers to supply water constraint for both wild and domestic herbivores to coal mining activities, and v) improved earth in the SGR is access to drinking water. and paved roads between the mine and Dalan- zadgad. Although the impact of mining related The SGR provides habitat for extensively activities at the Tavan Tolgoi site on rangeland managed pastoral livestock and populations of condition, large wild herbivores, and pastoral large herbivore wildlife that are already threatened livestock production may seem minor given the or endangered. Further economic development scale of the Gobi Desert, there are numerous and human intrusion is expected to increase pres- plans for mineral exploitation and economic sures on their existence. Additionally, loss of large development. As the scale of unregulated eco- herbivore habitat through economic development nomic development and infrastructure construc- will potentially increase pressure to eliminate large tion expands, cumulative degradation impacts on carnivore predators that may increase predation natural rangeland ecosystems will be more severe on livestock as an alternative to dwindling wildlife and permanent prey. Although the snow leopard may be adequate- ly protected, no protection is currently provided to the wolf. The added variable of climate change Impacts on Wildlife may cause species survival to be increasingly prob- lematic (Table 3.3). Many species of wildlife and all livestock species are classified as herbivores. At the larger scale of comparison, wild and domestic herbivores have Climate Change Impacts ruminant or caecal digestion systems, many are ungulates, and some wild and domestic herbivores Since the SGR is separated from Inner Mongolia have overlapping diet and habitat needs. In the only by an artificial boundary, comparison of SGR, wild and domestic large herbivore equiva- expected climate change impacts could provide lents are the domestic horse and the Wild Ass, the useful insights. Climate change impacts on Inner domestic goat and the Ibex, the domestic sheep Mongolian rangeland ecosystems adjacent to the and the Argali bighorn sheep, and the domestic border with the SGR could be indicative of future camel and the wild camel. In general, wild and do- impacts during and after economic development. mestic herbivore equivalents have similar diets and Rangelands in Inner Mongolia have been subject prefer similar habitat compared to non-equivalents to higher densities of livestock, rangeland is frag- 30 Development of the Southern Gobi Region Table 3.3. Main Constraints Affecting Large Herbivore Wildlife and Predators in the SGR (Summarized from Annex D) Wildlife species Current factors affecting populations Potential factors affecting populations Black tailed gazelle · Hunting · Mining (Gazella subgutturosa) · Increasing number of livestock compete for use of oa- · Human disturbance ses and cause degradation of surrounding rangeland White tailed gazelle · Drought and dzud conditions · Mining industry (Procapra gutturosa) · Infectious epizootic diseases · Barrier construction that affects distribution · Steppe wildfires and migration (e.g., the Trans-Mongolian · Human and livestock intrusion railway) · Predation by wolves and raptors · Dietary overlap competition with domestic sheep and goats for forage-plant species Wild Ass · Illegal hunting for meat and skins for commercial use · Habitat fragmentation (Equus hemionus) · Habitat degradation due to human intrusion · Barrier construction that affects distribution · Resource extraction (mining) and migration (e.g., the Mongolian railway) · Increasing numbers of livestock Saiga antelope · Drought and dzud conditions · Low population numbers (Saiga tatarica) · Illegal hunting for meat and skins for commercial use Argali bighorn sheep · Overharvest caused by hunting and poaching for · Habitat loss from mining (Ovis ammon) trophy horns · Increased competition with livestock Ibex goat · Overharvest caused by hunting · Habitat loss from mining (Capra sibirica) · Habitat degradation · Increased competition with livestock · Competition for resources Bactrian camels (Camelus · Decline in population numbers · Low population numbers bactrianus ferus) · Low reproductive success · Mining · Hybridization with domestic camels Wolf · Over-hunting (Canis lupus) Snow leopards · Exploitation by poaching for pelts and bones · Mining and infrastructure development (Panthera uncia) · Loss of prey species as a result of (illegal) over-hunt- ing of ibex, argali and marmots. · Loss and fragmentation of habitat. · Indirect competition with livestock for habitat mented by fencing, and herders and livestock are perate shrub rangeland types; ii) net primary pro- more sedentary (Angerer and others 2008). ductivity decreases in desert steppe (17 percent) and steppe (9 percent) rangeland productivity Inner Mongolia climate change. The projected caused by higher temperatures and lower precipi- change in natural ecosystem boundaries include tation during the summer months; iii) water-use i) a disappearance or decrease in area of more efficiency could increase throughout the region if mesic rangeland types, increase in area of arid higher seasonal precipitation and temperatures are rangeland types, and/or replacement of existing realized in conjunction with higher carbon dioxide rangeland types by extreme desert and warm tem- availability; iv) a reduction of soil cover in arid 31 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass land vegetation due to wind erosion; and v) poten- O Extra tropical storm tracks will shift poleward. tial increase in non-native invasive species caused O Precipitation will likely increase in high lati- by reducing the amount of ground cover, increas- tudes and likely decrease in most sub-tropical ing soil disturbance, and providing new invasive regions. species seed dispersal vectors. O River runoff and water availability will increase at high latitudes and decrease in dry Mongolia climate change. The following changes regions at mid-latitudes and tropics. in Mongolian natural ecosystem boundaries are O Many semi-arid regions will experience de- projected: i) current desert, desert steppe, and creases in water availability. dry steppe natural ecosystem zones will move northward; ii) mountain taiga and forest steppe At regional levels, changes in precipitation zones will be replaced by steppe ecosystem zones and temperature patterns are expected to jeop- by the end of the 21st Century; iii) net primary ardize current agricultural practices. This action productivity will decrease 5­30 percent in the would necessitate changes in technology, manage- forest steppe and steppe zones and increase 25­75 ment, species, or breeds (or all of these), as well as percent in the high mountain and desert steppe modifying animal productivity expectations and zones due to higher temperatures or higher pre- changing animal requirements to overcome cli- cipitation; iv) water-use efficiency could increase mate-imposed production constraints (Table 3.4). throughout the region if increased seasonal precip- itation and temperatures are realized in conjunc- The IPCC projections of climate change im- tion with higher carbon dioxide availability; v) soil pacts for the regional area that includes the SGR cover will be reduced in arid land vegetation cover are increased annual temperatures of 2.5­5.0 de- due to wind erosion; and vi) potential for increase grees C during both winter and summer months; in non-native invasive species could result from an increase in annual precipitation during the reducing the amount of ground cover, increasing winter, and a slight decrease or increase in summer soil disturbance, and providing opportunities for precipitation depending on sub-region location. new invasive species seed dispersal vectors. Sheehy and Damiran (2009) found that data Global and regional impacts. The longer-term collected from two Mongolian eco-zones (i.e., effect of climate change on natural ecosystems, pas- Desert and Forest Steppe) supported Angerer toral livestock production, and populations of large et al. (2008). On both zonal study areas there herbivore wildlife is uncertain (Annex E). Global was: i) a reduction in Net Primary Productivity projections of climate change impacts by the Inter- (NPP), ii) water deficiencies in the Desert Zone, governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) iii) reduced ground cover and expansion of na- indicate the following (Brown and Thorpe 2008): tive increaser plants such as fringed sagebrush, and iv) less resiliency of rangeland to withstand O Warming will be greatest over land and at drought (Annex 2). Although the data does high northern latitudes. not specifically verify that the drought/dzud of O Snow cover will contract, and thaw depth will 2001/02 accelerated rangeland degradation, the increase. severity of the drought/dzud, combined with O Frequency of hot extremes, heat waves, and increasing aridity and overgrazing, may have heavy precipitation events is likely to increase. been sufficient to suppress the natural resilience O Tropical cyclone intensity will very likely of rangeland vegetation communities and induce increase. accelerated degradation. 32 Development of the Southern Gobi Region Table 3.4. Potential Vulnerabilities of Rangeland Ecosystems to Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities Factor Climate · Temperature ­ warming above global mean. · Precipitation ­ increase or decrease, uncertain changes in established patterns. · Extreme events ­ increase in frequency and/or intensity of droughts, storm intensities, winds, rainfalls, land- slides, floods, lengthy hot spells, as well as events occurring in new areas. Large herbivores · Water stress ­ compromised runoff and water supply that affect livestock, wildlife, and humans through decreased water quality, decreased river flows and surface water points, and flooding. · Decreases in vegetation productivity and large herbivore yields from reduced soil moisture and evapo-tran- spiration; and rangeland, agricultural or grazing lands subjected to increased desertification, salinization, and erosion and degradation. · Heat stress and changing patterns in the occurrence of disease vectors, which increases risk to endemic morbid- ity and mortality for human and livestock health due to alteration of spatial and temporal transmission of disease vectors and changes in ways humans manage livestock. Livestock, wildlife, and · Changes in species, functions and/or transitions from non-food to food functions (e.g., conversion of rangeland habitat to crop production), multi-purpose to single-purpose livestock production (e.g., from multiple species to one species only), ruminants to non-ruminants (e.g. cattle or small ruminants to pigs and poultry). · Geographical shifts from marginal areas to humid and sub-humid zones, marginal areas to rural or urban areas, rural areas to urban areas. · Structural and technological shifts from resource-driven to demand-driven livestock production, small scale to large scale (economies of scale and industrial production), horizontal to vertical integration, and low input to high input livestock production. Source: Tolleson and others (2008). 33 4. Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development I n the SGR, the Wild Ass (Equus hemionus) strategies are firmly in place and infrastructure or Khulan exemplifies the declining popula- development accounts for needs of the Wild tions of large wild herbivore species that Ass and other large herbivores. is occurring throughout Mongolia. This O Herders' natural tendency towards conserva- equine's range historically extended across much tion, especially towards the Wild Ass, has of Asia, but has now been reduced to one sustain- been eroded by the market economy. able but shrinking population in the Gobi Desert O There is virtually no enforcement of wildlife of Mongolia with the population centered in the laws in the SGR region, and herders remain SGR (Feh et al. 2002). In Mongolia, aerial and the single most important factor determining vehicle surveys in 1997 estimated a Wild Ass the fate of many species of wild animals. population between 63,000 to 33,000 individuals O Wild Ass conservation should be approached (Reading 2001). By 2003, the number was esti- at both local and landscape scale as both live- mated at 20,000 individuals, with approximately stock and Wild Ass in the region require large 12,000 individuals currently in the SGR popula- areas of rangeland to mitigate the considerable tion (Kaczensky and others 2006). seasonal and annual variability in rangeland productivity and water availability. Relatively little is known about the Wild Ass, O The introduction of a market economy in but researchers recently have begun to examine Mongolia over the last two decades has cre- habitat needs and threats facing the species. In ated opportunities for organized poaching 2005 and 2006, Wild Ass were studied in the rings and probable distribution of Wild Ass Southern Gobi Region of Mongolia to determine meat as a low cost substitute for horse meat, the impact of well rehabilitation and human intru- especially as sausage. sion (Kaczensky and others 2006). Results of this O Habitat fragmentation and economic devel- study indicated that: opment that limits Wild Ass mobility will be the forces most influencing the Wild Ass's O Home ranges were large (> 90,000 km2) as a long-term survival. result of the need to move between spatially O Perceptions that herders may harbor toward distinct high forage productivity zones that Wild Ass are crucial; if negative, herders occur immediately following a precipitation will allow poachers free rein to hunt, and event. in some cases, provide valuable information O Infrastructure development such as railroads, about Wild Ass locations; if positive, herders roads, fencing, and mining, which is antici- will better understand the tenuous situa- pated to expand greatly over the next two tion of Wild Ass and will be in a position decades, could have a very deleterious impact to assist Wild Ass and wildlife conservation on migratory Wild Ass unless conservation programs. 35 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass One of the less understood aspects of Wild slopes; plant communities associated with dif- Ass ecology is the relationship between livestock ferent land forms and soils; sources of drinking and Wild Ass that co-use natural resources in water; and the presence of humans and livestock. the SGR. Even less understood is the impact of These attributes are discernible in LANDSAT im- regional economic development on the complex ages of the southeast Gobi (Figure 4.1). relationship that exists between herders, livestock, rangeland and the Wild Ass. The key factors in Although these and other attributes together this relationship are derived from the co-use of comprise Wild Ass habitat, the two key factors natural resources by livestock and Wild Ass, and determining whether habitat is viable for Wild Ass how that co-use was perceived by the livestock grazing is the availability of water, especially dur- herder. Therefore, a study of the existing relation- ing the summer and fall seasons, and the type and ship between herders, livestock, and the Wild Ass availability of vegetation. Vegetation communities was undertaken during 2006/07 as a follow-up highly influence Wild Ass selection of habitat in to the Kaczensky and others (2006) study. The the SGR. objectives of this study were: i) improve our un- derstanding of the degree of competition between pastoral livestock and the Wild Ass, ii) determine Vegetation herders understanding of, and willingness to use, new technologies such as the GPS and digital Composition of rangeland vegetation and the camera to collect habitat information about temporal and spatial distribution of annual forage rangeland co-used by Wild Ass and livestock, and iii) develop a suitable incentive for local herders who actively participate in Wild Ass conserva- tion programs and protect Wild Ass from illegal Figure 4.1. LANDSAT Topographic Relief Map of hunting and other types of detrimental human Part of the SGR Extensively Used by Wild Ass intrusion. Environment and Natural Resources The highest population density of Wild Ass in Mongolia occurs in portions of the three Mon- golian provinces that comprise the SGR (i.e., Dundgov, Dornogov, and Omnigov provinces). Terrain in these provinces is typical of the eastern Gobi. Two low-elevation desert mountain ranges separated by a wide, low-elevation valley provide topographic relief. The Wild Ass Strictly Protected Area (SPA) is located primarily in the southern- most mountain range close to the border with China. The human population of the study area is low, and mainly consists of livestock herding Source: Oregon State University 2005. (Note: Ephemeral water courses (i.e., families and residents of small soum centers. white) cross the study area and small freshwater ponds are present (i.e., light blue). The darker colors of the dissected, rocky hill ranges contrast with the lighter shrub steppe plains. Relief energy is low and only a few Land Form and Topography small mountain ranges are found. Elevations in the area range from 750m to 1,900m. Superimposed on the mosaic are named herder camp locations and the colored dots represent GPS positions of collared Wild Ass in the In the SGR, attributes of Wild Ass habitat include 2006 study. There is a freshwater lake associated with the summer camp topography with variable aspects, elevation, and location of the herder Yubba near the center of the mosaic) 36 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development standing crop are important factors regulating habitat used by Wild Ass in the southeast Gobi large herbivore distribution in the SGR. Extreme between 2005 and 2007 (Figure 4.2). and unpredictable fluctuation in forage quantity and quality between seasons, years, and places The area selected for the 2006/07 study of Wild (often on a very local scale) is a characteristic of Ass interactions with herders was the Minimum forage growth. Although growth of forage stand- Convex Polygon (MCP) derived from locations of ing crop may be initiated for some plant species by collared Wild Ass during the 2005/06 study (Kac- April, both quantity and quality of forage is insuf- zensky et al. 2006; Figure 4.3). This area lies wholly ficient to meet large herbivore needs until the rise within the SGR and includes the southwest portion in ambient temperature and precipitation create of Dornogov Aimag and the southeastern portions conditions suitable for a high rate of forage growth of Omnigov and Dundgov provinces. in late May and early June. Vegetation types occurring in the Wild Ass Methodology study area range from gravel plains dominated by onion communities (Allium sp.) to large-stature Herder Engagement Saxual (Haloxylon sp.) dominated shrub com- munities in desert valleys (Annex A). At least 26 The study explored the interaction of Wild Ass different vegetation types occurred in rangeland with herders in the SGR during 2006/07. Three Figure 4.2. Vegetation Map of the Southeast Gobi Note: Examples of vegetation types grazed by studied livestock herds. The polygons represent the minimum convex polygons generated from GPS units car- ried by herders. Each dominate vegetation type contains a letter to denote a slight variation from the major type. The major types are as follows: 37 - Anabasis, Nanophyton, Sympegma, Ephedra, low Haloxylon stands on grey-brown desert, locally solonetz soils, often in combination with Sympegma- Potaninia or Artemisia terrae-abbae-Ceratoides papposa communities on sands 33 - Anabasis brevifolia with Stipa gobica, Stipa glareosa, Allium; Nanophyton erinaceum with Stipa, Artemisia, Ajania with Stipa deserts on pale-brown locally weakly solonetz soils 34 - Petrophytic Anabasis brevifolia, Sympegma, Ajania, Salsola Iaricifolia with Stipa glareosa deserts on pale-brown soils. 35 - Psammophytic Artemisia with grasses, Ceratoides papposa, Caragana, Potaninia deserts on pale-brown sandy soils 40 - Halophytic, Reamuria, Salsola passerina, Anabasis brevifolia, Brachanthemum deserts on grey-brown solonetz soils and solon-chak soils 63 - Combinations of halophitic (perennial saltwort Reaumuria, Kalidum, Nitraria, Haloxylon) communities on meadow and fluffy solonchaks 37 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Figure 4.3. Minimum Convex Polygon of Wild Ass Home Range Derived from Collared Wild Ass Locations during the 2005 Study. The Green Polygon Includes All the Tracked Points from the Wild Ass GPS Tracking Units Source: Kaczensky et al. 2006. herder families who contributed information and of habitat in the study area (i.e., the Minimum assistance during the 2006 study were engaged to Convex Polygon established in the 2006 study); participate in the latter study. They were: i) Nam- ii) Wild Ass use of regional habitat as observed sarai in Khatenbulag Soum, whose pastureland is through vehicular transects; and iii) Wild Ass use located within the Wild Ass Strictly Protected Area of the herder's pastureland. (SPA). Namsarai's livestock, mainly sheep, goats, and camels, were dependent on shallow wells for drinking water; ii) Yubba in Khatenbulag Soum, Wild Ass Local Pasture Use whose pastureland is located outside of the Wild Ass SPA. Yubba's livestock, also mainly sheep, The three herder families were provided with a goats and camel, were dependent on fresh water digital camera, a GPS unit, LANDSAT derived ponds for drinking water; and iii) Ulaankhukhen grid maps of their pastureland, and data forms. in Mandalk Soum, whose pastureland is located They were provided with training and instruction on the northern edge of the Wild Ass range. in the use of the equipment and data collection Ulaankhukhen's livestock, primarily goats and procedures. Herders were asked to record infor- sheep, were dependent on a deep mechanical well mation about Wild Ass use of pastureland grazed for drinking water. by their livestock. In return, herders were paid a stipend equivalent to about $8 and an additional The study evaluated Wild Ass interaction with amount (about $0.10) for each Wild Ass sighted the three herders at three scales: i) Wild Ass use and verified by a digital photo. The interaction of 38 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development herders and Wild Ass was determined using data Vegetation Community Selection collected by the three herders located near three distinctly different kinds of water sources. A preference index was used to determine selec- tion of vegetation communities by Wild Ass. Such a preference index refers to the ratio between the Wild Ass Regional Pasture Use percent of time an animal spends in a particular vegetation type divided by the percent of the total Between June 2005 and June 2007, Wild Ass and area that the vegetation type occupies. For the other large wild herbivore locations were observed purposes of this study, the percent of time spent and recorded along vehicular transects in the Wild in an area was estimated by tallying the number Ass MCP range. On sighting of a Wild Ass or of observation points that placed Wild Ass within other large wild herbivore, their number in the the bounds of a community. The percent available group and the GPS position of the vehicle were area was found by determining the area of that recorded. The number and location of Wild Ass vegetation community relative to other communi- observed along the vehicular transects were used to ties visited by the Wild Ass. For example, if 10 derive summer and winter season MCPs of Wild GPS points of the total 100 GPS points collected Ass range areas during the second phase study. were located in "vegetation community number These MCPs were compared to summer and win- 1," then the percent of time in "vegetation com- ter season MCP's derived from collared Wild Ass munity 1" would be 10%. If that community positions obtained in the 2005/06 study. comprises 8% of the total area of all vegetation communities visited, than the preference value for Wild herbivore GPS positions and numbers "vegetation community 1" would be 10 divided by observed along vehicular transects were aggregated 8, or an index value of 1.25. Since this preference by season. Locations of Wild Ass during summer value is greater than one, it would be considered a and winter seasons were overlaid onto plant com- `preferred' community. munity and topographic maps covering the MCP to determine selection of topographic parameters and plant community. Large Herbivore Dietary Quality During 2005, fecal samples of wild and domestic Large Herbivore Distribution herbivores were obtained from herder pasture- lands that overlapped with Wild Ass grazing areas NDVI and C-Morph precipitation databases in in the Wild Ass SPA. Fecal profiling using Near the PHYGROW Forage Growth Model (Stuth Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) technique was used and others 2003) that were derived at forage to determine dietary intake nutrition, represented monitoring points established in the Wild Ass as percentages of Crude Protein (CP) and Digest- study area were compared with Wild Ass distribu- ible Organic Matter (DOM) of large herbivores tion. Accumulated precipitation in 2005 and 2006 co-using the same pastureland (Lyons and Stuth was compared seasonally. Wild Ass use of habitat 1992). was compared on a seasonal basis throughout the study area to obtain indication of seasonal use during a drought year (2005) and a wet year Study Results (2006). The number and location of Wild Ass observed along the vehicular transect in 2006 were Climatic factors have a major influence on habitat used to determine additional minimum convex and distribution of animals within habitat in the polygons (MCP) of Wild Ass use during winter SGR. Although a number of climatic factors in- and summer seasons. These polygons are smaller teract to influence animal distribution, precipita- than the MCP defining the study area and fall tion in the SGR is unquestionably the single most within its bounds. important climate factor influencing both large 39 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass domestic and wild herbivore distribution. Precipi- tation influences both the amount and timing of Figure 4.4. Annual Precipitation by Season in annual forage growth. Without adequate seasonal the Southeast Gobi precipitation in the form of rain or snowfall, Precipitation in the Khulan Study Area drought is induced and forage growth in various 12 habitats is reduced. Inadequate precipitation can 10 also diminish the availability of surface water, Precipitation (cm) which reduces the amount of drinking water 8 available to both livestock and wild herbivores. 6 Reduced availability of forage and drinking water 4 can both directly and indirectly increase potential conflict between domestic livestock and wildlife 2 that co-use the same rangeland habitat. 0 Winter Spring Summer Fall Season Seasonal Precipitation 2005 2006 2007 Source: Gobi Forage Project 2007. Annual precipitation between 2005 and 2007 in the SGR Wild Ass study area had significant variation between years and between seasons (Figure 4.4). was lower compared to accumulated precipitation in 2006 and 2007. The inadequate precipitation Using January 1 as the first calendar day during the spring and summer season of 2005 to begin measuring annual precipitation, ap- induced drought. Long distance movements of proximately the same amount of moisture from collared Wild Ass during the 2005/06 study (Kac- snow and rain (<0.5 cm as liquid) accumulated zensky and others 2006) appear to have been in on the study area during winter seasons (i.e., response to the drought conditions of 2005. winter season is arbitrarily defined as 1 January to 31 March). During spring seasons (i.e., spring In 2006, the relatively high amount of season is arbitrarily defined as 1 April to 30 June), precipitation during the spring and summer between 2.5 and 4.0 centimeters accumulated seasons improved forage condition and drinking each year, indicating the SGR usually receives a water availability for both domestic livestock and relatively high amount of total annual precipita- Wild Ass. During 2006, observations of Wild Ass tion during spring, but very little during winter. indicated less movement and more concentrated habitat use in a much reduced area. In 2007, accu- However, the greatest amount of moisture in mulated precipitation in the SGR study area was the SGR study area occurs during the summer sea- higher but more similar to 2005 than 2006 during son (i.e., summer season is arbitrarily defined as 1 the winter and spring seasons. Although Wild Ass July to 30 September). Each year during this sea- were not observed in 2007 during summer and son, accumulated precipitation in the study area fall seasons, winter and spring observations of increased between 4 and 7 centimeters. During Wild Ass were consistent with 2006 observations the fall season (i.e., fall season was arbitrarily de- during the same seasons. fined as 1 October to 31 December) the amount of accumulated precipitation only incrementally Considerable annual variation existed in the increased during each year. amount of regional seasonal precipitation occur- ring throughout the SGR study area (Figure 4.5). Comparison of accumulated precipitation In 2005, the northern portion of the MCP study between years indicated that 2005 was a drought area received more precipitation during spring, year in the SGR study area. During that year, ac- summer, and fall seasons than the central and cumulated precipitation at the end of each season southern portions of the study area. The latter two 40 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development regions received approximately the same amount of precipitation (6 to 7 cm) and both regions had Figure 4.5 (a), (b), and (c). Regional proportional accumulation of precipitation during Precipitation in the Southeast Gobi in 2005 each season. and 2006 in Southern, Central, and North Study Areas Respectively Seasonal accumulated precipitation in the Southern Study Area study area during 2006 was higher in all three 14 regions compared to 2005, both relative to total 12 annual accumulation and seasonal accumulation 10 Precipitation (cm) by study area region. During winter and spring 8 seasons, the three regions accumulated approxi- mately the same amount of precipitation but dur- 6 ing summer, the southern region accumulated two 4 to three centimeters more precipitation compared 2 to the northern and central regions. 0 Winter Spring Summer Fall In 2007, annual precipitation appeared to be Season more uniformly distributed throughout the study 2005 2006 area. The three study area regions appeared to ac- cumulate precipitation at approximately the same rate during spring and summer. All three regions Central Study Area had received most of their annual precipitation by 12 the end of the summer season, and precipitation 10 accumulated equally in the three regions during Precipitation (cm) 8 spring and summer. Compared to 2005 and 2006, the study area in 2007 appeared to have average 6 accumulated precipitation that was distributed 4 evenly throughout the study area. 2 0 Wild Ass Distribution Winter Spring Summer Fall Season The location of collared Wild Ass during summer 2005 2006 and winter (i.e. 463 observations during 2005 and early 2006) and uncollared Wild Ass observed along vehicular transects (i.e. 51 observations North Study Area 12 during 2006 and 2007) provided an indication of Wild Ass distribution in the SGR. Locations were 10 used to establish MCP of Wild Ass use of habitats Precipitation (cm) 8 during the period of observations. Location of Wild Ass in different vegetation types within the 6 MCP also indicated trends in Wild Ass preference 4 for habitat in the SGR. 2 Positions of the eight collared Wild Ass 0 Winter Spring Summer Fall during the drought summer of 2005 indicated Season that Wild Ass in the SGR study area were widely dispersed. Habitat used by Wild Ass during the 2005 2006 summer season was spatially large (67,248 km2) Source: D.P. Sheehy (2007). 41 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass and included all or part of ten soums in southwest Ass sought out higher elevation hills and plateaus Dornogov province and southeast Omnigov and dominated by more preferred low-stature shrubs Dundgov aimags (Figure 4.6). During the winter, and grasses (Figure 4.7a) and avoided high stature rangeland habitat used by Wild Ass was more shrub dominated valleys that considerably reduced concentrated (15,546 km2) and was located in the capacity of Wild Ass to detect approaching and around the Special Protected Area in south- danger (Figure 4.7b). west Dornogov province and southeast Omnigov province. During 2005 and early 2006, the ratio During the summer and winter seasons of of winter range area to summer range area was 2006 and 2007, Wild Ass were observed along 1:4.3, indicating the apparent need of Wild Ass to vehicular transects extending from Mandalk have access to an extensive range during summers soum in west-central Dorngov province to the experiencing drought. SPA in Khatenbulag soum (Figure 4.8). Although the MCP defined from vehicular observations The summer-season MCP derived from tends to be linear (since it is an artifact of the collared Wild Ass locations indicated that Wild general north-south linear transect followed by Ass use their mobility and capacity to travel long the vehicle), the summer and winter range MCPs distances to seek out favorable habitat. During the indicates a southern shift in range by Wild Ass summer, Wild Ass locations relative to topography during the 2006/07 winter similar to the shift indicated Wild Ass sought moderate to higher observed during the 2005/06 winter with the col- elevation positions on the hill ranges and plateaus lared observations. (i.e., green to blue color in figure 4.6). Conversely, Wild Ass locations also indicated avoidance of The MCP defined by collar observations of wide, low elevation desert valleys between east- Wild Ass during the summer of 2005 indicated west lying hill ranges. The location of collared the much larger area of summer rangeland habitat Wild Ass during the winter season indicated Wild used by the Wild Ass. The MCP defined by collar Figure 4.6. Seasonal MCPs of Rangeland Area with Observed Use by Collared Wild Ass during 2005 and Early 2006 Source: C.M. Sheehy (2007). 42 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development Figure 4.7 (a) and (b). Vegetation Types at Different Elevations Source: D. P. Sheehy (2007). Left figure (a) shows small stature shrub/bunchgrass habitat found on higher elevation plateaus and hill ranges. Right figure (b) shows tall shrub habitat found in low elevation valleys and depressions. observations of Wild Ass during the winter indi- range (8,063 km2) but concentrate their use dur- cated they again concentrated their use of habitat ing the winter in a relatively small area of winter in and around the SPA. The MCPs for 2006­2007 rangeland habitat (4,405 km2). In 2006­2007, the indicated that Wild Ass have an expansive summer ratio of winter range to summer range was 1:1.8. Figure 4.8. Seasonal MCPs of Rangeland Area with Observed Wild Ass Use along North to South Vehicular Transects during 2006 and 2007 Source: C.M. Sheehy (2007). 43 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Although the ratio of winter to summer range the mobility and capacity of Wild Ass to travel area is not directly comparable between years long distances to access a variety of habitats that because of the different methodologies used to provided optimal foraging conditions and access obtain MCPs, both ratios support the apparent to drinking water need of Wild Ass to have access to larger areas of summer rangeland habitat compared to winter rangeland habitat (Figure 4.9). The need for a Preferred Vegetation Communities and large summer range is apparent even though 2006 Habitat had higher accumulated precipitation compared to 2005. Different vegetation communities and diverse topography were contained within rangeland The overlap of winter range MCPs, although areas used by Wild Ass between 2005 and 2007. established using different methods and data sets During the summer of 2005, collared Wild Ass from different years, suggests that Wild Ass select used 15 different vegetation communities but only specific land forms that provide optimal condi- five during the winter season. In the following tions for winter survival and security. Relative to topographical overlay, colored dots representing topography, Wild Ass appeared to utilize habitat collared Wild Ass positions are paired with narrow associated with moderate elevation hill ranges black lines indicating different vegetation types and plateaus found in the southeast Gobi. The (Figure 4.10). lower elevation desert valleys, while used, ap- peared to provide less optimal habitat for Wild Between June 2006 and June 2007, seasonal Ass in either winter or summer. These landforms observations of Wild Ass along north-south appeared to be in or near the SPA and were cen- vehicular transects indicated animals used five tered on the east-west range of moderate eleva- different vegetation communities during the tion hills and plateaus in the southeast Gobi. The summer season and six during the winter season much larger summer rangeland MCPs indicated (Figure 4.11). Figure 4.9. Seasonal MCPs of Rangeland Area with Collared and Observed Wild Ass Use between 2005 and 2007 Source: C.M. Sheehy (2007). 44 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development Figure 4.10. Location of Collared Wild Ass Relative to Vegetation Types and Topography in 2005 and 2006 Source: C.M. Sheehy (2007). Both of the above figures indicate that Wild summer. During the summer of 2005, collared Ass need access to a diversity of vegetation com- Wild Ass were also observed in the highest num- munities and topography, especially during the ber of communities. This would be expected to Figure 4.11. MCPs of Wild Ass Observed in 2006 and 2007 along a Vehicular Transect Relative to Vegetation Communities Source: C.M. Sheehy (2007). The summer MCP boundary is defined by the green line, while the winter boundary is defined by the blue MCP. 45 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Table 4.1. Wild Ass Preference for Vegetation Communities in the SGR Collared obs. Vehicle obs. 2005 2006 Community labels Summer Winter Summer Winter Community description Semi-Desert Steppe 25 Artemisia2-bunchgrass, bunchgrass (Stipa, Cleistogenes, Agropyron) steppes with Caragana on light chestnut soils 26 3.31 1.6 Forbs-Artemisia-bunchgrass (Agropyron, Stipa) steppes on the light chestnut and mountain chestnut soils. 27 0.1 6.2 Bunchgrass steppes (Agropyron,Stipa/S,glareosa and S. gobica, Cleis- togenes) with shrubs on light chestnut sandy loamy and sandy soils. 28 Nanophyton-Artemisia-bunchgrass, Allium-Stipa glareosa steppes on light chestnut soils. North Desert Semi-Desert 29 1.5 0.7 Bunchgrass (Stipa gobica, S.,glareosa) with Anabasis, Allium, Ajania, Artemisia, Nanophyton on brown desert-steppe soils with locally Calcareous soils. 30 0.7 Bunchgrass (Stipa gobica, S. glareousa), Ajania, Salsola laricifolia, Ceratoides papposa, with Caragana on brown soils locally in combi- nation with perennial saltworts and brown soils. 31 2.1 Bunchgrass (Stipa gobica, S.glareosa) with Caragana, Ceratoides papposa, and Stipa-Cleistogenes communities on brown loose- sandy soils and sands. 32 0.8 Bunchgrass (Stipa gobica, S. glareousa) with perennial saltworts, Salsola passerine with Stipa and Allium; Reaumuria songarica with Stipa and Allium communities on brown soils and their complexes.. Middle Desert Steppificated Desert 33 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.1 Anabasis brevifolia with Stipa gobica, S. glareosa, Allium; Nanophy- ton erinaceum with Stipa, Artemisia, Ajania with Stipa in deserts with pale-brown locally weak soils. 34 0.6 5 2.9 1.1 Anabasis brevifolia, Sympegma, Ajania, Salsola, Iaricifolia with Stipa glareosa on stony deserts with pale-brown soils. 35 1.9 0.4 1 Artemisia with grasses, Ceratoides papposa,Caragana, Potaninia in deserts with pale-brown sandy soils. 36 0.4 1.0 Perennial saltworts with Stipa glareosa in combination with Kaldium and Haloxylon stands in deserts with pale soils. (continued on next page) 46 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development Table 4.1. Wild Ass Preference for Vegetation Communities in the SGR (continued) Collared obs. Vehicle obs. 2005 2006 Community labels Summer Winter Summer Winter Community description 38 0.8 Anabasis, Salsola Iaricifolia, Sympegma, Amygdalus, perennial saltwort in deserts with grey-brown poorly developed soils. 39 0.7 0.4 Psammochloa, Artemisia, Caragana, Potaninia,,Zygophyllum, and Haloxylon stands in deserts on grey-brown, locally gypsic, sandy, weakly differentiated soils and sands. 40 0.9 1.3 3.8 Reamuria, Salsola passerina, Anabasis brevifolia,Brachanthemum in deserts on grey-brown soils. 41 1.2 Nitraria, Haloxylon with Nitraria on perennial saltworts deserts with grey-brown strongly gypsic soils. 63 0.1 1.1 Combinations of perennial saltwort (Reaumuria, Kalidum, Nitraria, Haloxylon) communities on meadow and fluffy. 1 Values in table 4.1 indicate Wild Ass preference for the vegetation community. Values >1 signify the ratio of the time spent in the community was larger than its area relative to other communities and are highlighted in yellow. Values <1 signify that the amount of time spent in the community was less than its area relative to other communities. 2 Italicized words reflect names of plant communities as defined by dominant plant species and/or the genus and species names of co-dominant plants in the community. some degree as the highest number of Wild Ass nities, the ones with a value >1 were considered points were recorded from the newly placed collars preferred. that enjoyed a high rate of function. However, when compared to winter samples for 2006, data collection was still consistently high and the analy- sis shows that spatial area, topography, and the Table 4.2. Ulaanhukhun Herd Movements 16 number of vegetation communities used by the July 2005 to 27 August 2005 Wild Ass is substantially reduced in the winter. Ulaankhukhun Herd Movements A general idea of Wild Ass preference for habitat was obtained from the 463 GPS collar Distance from Ger/water Time spent locations and the 51 vehicular observations. A preference analysis of Wild Ass location relative < 500 m 85.94% to vegetation community suggested that Wild Ass 501­1000 m 1.54% selectively used specific vegetation communities during summer and winter seasons (Table 4.1). 1001­1500 m 4.16% Many communities in the area did not have any 1501­2000 m 1.79% observations of Wild Ass and were not included in > 2001 m 6.57% table 2. Of the Wild Ass-used vegetation commu Ger is located near water source for convenience of the herder in providing livestock with drinking water. 47 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Wild Ass appeared to select the Petro- Wild Ass overcame water limitations during phytic Forb/Artemisia bunchgrass steppe the 2005 drought summer by moving to bet- community #26 (preference value 3.3) and ter forage habitat while herders' livestock were the Psammophytic bunchgrass/shrub commu- limited to movement around a known water nity #31 (preference value 2.1), both of which source (Figure 4.12). Although the different scale are semi-desert communities with relatively of livestock and Wild Ass habitat use persisted high grass components. During the winters of in 2006, the scale of conflict for forage resources 2005/06, Wild Ass appeared to select the Petro- decreased because of the presence of many more phytic shrub-bunchgrass community #34 (prefer- water sources for Wild Ass. In 2006, the relatively ence value 5). During the winter of 2006 only, high spring and summer precipitation that oc- Wild Ass appeared to strongly select the Psam- curred throughout the SGR substantially reduced mophytic and Hemipsammophytic bunchgrass drinking water and forage availability as limiting community #27 (preference value 6). During factors for both Wild Ass and livestock use of the 2006 summer season, Wild Ass selected the habitat. Petrophytic shrub/bunchgrass community #34 (preference value 2.9), although not as strongly Lack of access to drinking water is the most as the previous winter. important constraint to livestock use of rangeland in the southeast Gobi. Dependence by herders on During the two years that Wild Ass were wells for drinking water for personal and livestock observed in the Southeast Gobi, highest Wild Ass use also limits livestock access to vegetation com- use occurred in vegetation communities classified munities. Although access of herders' livestock as belonging to the Middle Desert-Steppe Desert to vegetation communities was obtained only for vegetation type. The exception to this general three herders, researchers have observed many statement was the drought summer of 2005 and herders and their livestock concentrated around the winter of 2006 when Wild Ass selected small available drinking water sources in the SGR. Es- stature shrub and bunchgrass communities (#26 pecially during drought summers such as occurred and #27) in the middle region of the study area in 2005, livestock dominated use of much of the belonging to the Semi-Desert Steppe vegetation type. Although the reason Wild Ass selected these vegetation communities is not certain, plant Figure 4.12. Location of Collared Wild Ass species comprising these communities, especially (Colored Points) and Cooperating Herder's grasses, are known to be selected by Equines. In Pastureland (Grey Areas) in the Study Area addition, it is generally believed that Wild Ass during the Summer of 2005 travel to and reside in areas of recent precipita- tion. Consequently, Wild Ass use of vegetation communities during the summer season may be related to recent weather in the area as it affects forage growth. Livestock Distribution Although livestock are distributed widely across the region, individual herders and their livestock use southeastern Gobi habitat at a smaller scale than Wild Ass (Table 4.2). For both Wild Ass and livestock, access to water was the most important constraint influencing rangeland habitat use. Source: (Johnson 2005) 48 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development southeast Gobi rangeland communities adjacent to sources of drinking water. Figure 4.13. Summer Dietary Quality of Five Large Herbivores Co-Grazing Pastureland in the Southeast Gobi Herbivore Diet Quality Herbivore diet quality 80 During the summer of 2005, herders who had 70 agreed to collect field information on Wild Ass 60 were also asked to collect fecal samples of Wild Ass 50 Percent and livestock from their co-grazed pastureland. 40 Only one herder, Namsarai, actually complied with 30 the request, collecting samples from Wild Ass, cat- 20 tle, horses, sheep and goats. Samples were analyzed 10 by the Texas A&M Grazing Animal Nutrition 0 Laboratory (GANL) using NIRS fecal profiling Khulan Cattle Horse Sheep Goats techniques (Lyons and Stuth 1992). Although the Herbivore species number of samples collected was inadequate to test Mean Diet Mean Diet Digestible statistically, the results present an opportunity to Crude Protein (CP) Organic Matter (DOM) gain insight into dietary relationships among large Source: C.M. Sheehy (2007) herbivores co-grazing the same pastureland during The whiskers represent the largest and smallest sample. a drought year in the southeastern Gobi. Both horses and Wild Ass had similar dietary of observation, herders recorded the date and Crude Protein (CP) and Digestible Organic the number of Wild Ass that were observed. The Matter (DOM) in their diet, even though these digital timestamp on the photograph verified the dietary levels are slightly higher for Wild Ass written record (Figure 4.13). Both equine species have lower di- etary CP and DOM levels compared to ruminant livestock species. Sheep, among the ruminant livestock, had the highest dietary levels among the herbivores. A possible explanation for the higher CP and DOM in the diets of sheep and cattle Figure 4.14. Recorded Observation of Wild compared to goats is that the sheep and cattle are Ass on Ulaanhukhun's Pastureland between bulk roughage foragers while the goat is a selective 6/1/2006 and 7/1/2007 feeder. If this assumption is correct, then sheep Ulaankhuu Khulan # and cattle have access to sufficient herbaceous 60 plant material to allow them to optimize quantity 50 of forage intake from higher quality grasses and forbs. Goats, as selective feeders, are less able to 40 optimize forage intake during the summer season. 30 20 Herder and Wild Ass Interaction 10 0 In 2006, the three herders actively monitored 1/23/2006 2/23/2006 3/23/2006 4/23/2006 5/23/2006 6/23/2006 7/23/2006 8/23/2006 9/23/2006 10/23/2006 11/23/2006 12/23/2006 1/23/2007 2/23/2007 Wild Ass use of their pastureland. Since they were paid a fee for each Wild Ass observed, the numbers were verified through photographs taken Khulan # by the herder with a digital camera. At the time Source: D.P. Sheehy (2007) 49 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass In Mandalkh soum of west-central Dornogov Many of the Wild Ass were observed drinking province, the herder Ulaanhukhun recorded Wild from the fresh water ponds, including two herds Ass observed on her pastureland between June of 1500 migrating Wild Ass. 2006 and June 2007 (Figure 4.14). Based on the number of Wild Ass recorded, only a few Wild Namsarai was the third herder to record Ass used the northern portion of the Wild Ass observations of Wild Ass during the same period. study area in 2006. The total Wild Ass recorded Namsarai's pastureland and camp was located close during the fall season was 21, and these Wild Ass to the boundary of the Wild Ass SPA southwest were all recorded between 31 October and 29 of the Khatanbulag soum center. Most of Nam- November, 2006. During the winter season, the sarai's recorded observations occurred during the herder recorded a total of 101 Wild Ass between 1 winter of 2006 and the winter and spring of 2007 February and 31 March, 2007. The largest group (Figure 4.16). During the winter of 2006, total ob- recorded during the observation period was 50. served Wild Ass was 1,319 in 71 different groups ranging in size from 3 to 42 Wild Ass. During the The second herder recording Wild Ass use of winter of 2007, Namsarai recorded 21 observations pastureland during the same period was Yubaa. of 198 Wild Ass with herd size ranging from 3 to His camp and pastureland was located due west 21 Wild Ass. The largest total number of Wild Ass of the Khatanbulag soum center and north of the recorded occurred during the spring of 2007 when Wild Ass Special Protected Area (Figure 4.15). Namsarai recorded observing 1,798 Wild Ass in 82 Several fresh water ponds provided drinking water herds. The largest number of recorded Wild Ass in for livestock in the area. During the summer of one herd during the spring season was 100. 2006, the herder had only one recorded observa- tion of 300 Wild Ass. Other than this solitary Although it is unknown if all Wild Ass us- summer observation, all others were recorded in ing the three herders' pastureland were recorded, late fall when Wild Ass were using fresh water the three herders were enthusiastic about both ponds to obtain drinking water. Between 9 Oc- recording Wild Ass use of their pastureland and tober and 12 December, 7,645 Wild Ass in 273 verifying their number with digital photos. At the groups were observed using Yubaa's pastureland. end of the study, the herders expressed disap- pointment that the study was ending along with their supplementary source of income. They also expressed enthusiasm to participate in any future Figure 4.15. Recorded Observation of Wild Ass studies even though they had encountered some on Yubba's Pastureland between 6/1/2006 and resentment from neighboring herders relative to to 7/1/2007 their windfall income or suspicion that the herders Yubba Khulan # were "spying for the government." 1600 1400 1200 Conclusions 1000 800 The study was completed in the summer of 2007, 600 approximately three years after the initial World 400 Bank-supported Wild Ass work began. During 200 the course of the study, it was the opinion of the researchers that Wild Ass were noticeably scarcer 0 in many areas of the Gobi than in 2004/05. In 1/23/2006 3/23/2006 5/23/2006 7/23/2006 9/23/2006 11/23/2006 1/23/2007 3/23/2007 the earlier study by Kaczensky and others (2006), the combined effects of poaching, habitat change, Khulan # human conflict for resources, and landscape frag- Source: D.P. Sheehy (2007) mentation were believed to collectively reduce the 50 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development livestock and Wild Ass for available water sources Figure 4.16. Recorded Observation of Wild Ass increases. Wild Ass avoid mingling with herded on Namsarai's Pastureland between 6/1/2006 livestock and are forced to range further in search and 7/1/2007 of unoccupied water sources. The data from both Haupac Khulan # collared Wild Ass and those observed from vehicles 120 indicate that they were distributed over a wider 100 range of habitats during the summer and fall sea- sons, with an even wider range of habitats covered 80 during periods of drought. Summer MCPs are 60 larger than winter, even in years with high accumu- lated precipitation. Ranges tend to be concentrated 40 during the winter and localized around the Wild 20 Ass SPA because of the quality of habitat. 0 1/23/2006 3/23/2006 5/23/2006 7/23/2006 9/23/2006 11/23/2006 1/23/2007 3/23/2007 Wild Ass Diet Changes with the Seasons Khulan # As a corollary to the range patterns exhibited in Source: D.P. Sheehy (2007) summer and winter months, the Wild Ass diet is much more diverse during the summer than in winter. Specifically, GPS data points confirm population of Wild Ass by 10% annually. If cor- grazing in 16 different types of plant communi- rect, this precipitous decline would have reduced ties during the summers, but only five communi- the 2003 population of 20,000 animals to less ties during the winter. However, when looking at than 11,800 in 2007. Another population census vegetation community preference shifts, there may is urgently needed in order to validate this rate of be more changes in community selections between reduction and the growing scarcity of Wild Ass years than season. In large part this is probably in the area at this time. During the course of this due to rainfall patterns between years. No general study, we were able to draw several conclusions observations were made in this study to discount important to future research and conservation ef- the assumption that Wild Ass prefer vegetation forts of Wild Ass. These are discussed below. communities consistent with expectations devel- oped from observing domestic equines. Precipitation Has a Marked Influence on During the summer of 2005, fecal samples Herbivore Distributions from one location were collected and analyzed but little difference was observed in crude protein Evaluation of annual and seasonal precipitation (CP) and digestible organic matter (DOM) in the over three years in the southeastern Gobi indicated diets of domestic horses and Wild Ass. There does the following: however appear to be a large difference in dietary quality between Wild Ass and other kind of live- O Precipitation is very variable between years, stock. Further research could verify this relation- seasons, and regions. ship across the Gobi region. O Most precipitation occurs during the spring and summer seasons. O Fall and winter seasons usually lack substan- Wild Ass Tolerance of Humans Has Its tial precipitation events. Limits With the onset of summer drought in the Herders and Wild Ass in the southeastern Gobi southeastern Gobi, the competition between interact continuously throughout annual cycles, 51 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass but not necessarily on a daily or even a seasonal black GPS tracking unit was actually monitoring basis. Information obtained during Phase II of the Wild Ass, and that if the herder was nearby, any Wild Ass study supported the Kaczensky and oth- poached Wild Ass would be detected and reported ers (2006) findings and further explained interac- by satellite communication to the authorities. tions between Wild Ass and herders and livestock. Findings of this study indicated that: Another herder was fortunate enough be camped near a lake that turned out to be a O Wild Ass quite readily use surface water even popular Wild Ass watering hole. After being paid if herder camps and livestock are in the imme- substantial sums of money to photograph and diate vicinity. This indicates that Wild Ass are record hundreds of Wild Ass near his camp, the tolerant of humans and livestock that main- word began to spread that Wild Ass were a lucra- tain established, non-harassment patterns. tive source of income. On subsequent trips to the O The high mobility and capacity to travel limits herders' camp, research team members were ap- potential for forage competition between proached earnestly by other would-be Mongolian Wild Ass and individual herders, but high collaborators. density of herders throughout the Wild Ass range increases competition for forage, In these cases and others, the involvement especially during drought years, and especially of herders in collection of the data was more for herders dependent on surface water for than just an efficient way to employ year-round livestock as Wild Ass also require water from researchers in a remote area. It also began the criti- these same sources. cal process of instilling a conservation ethic in the O Economic development or more intensive local people who were usually the only authority livestock use of winter range habitat would at present on the landscapes beyond Ulaanbaatar. be especially harmful to the current Wild Ass Perhaps the most important piece of this puzzle population because their winter habitat range was finding a way to place a monetary value on is substantially lower compared to summer living Wild Ass. Secondly, these impromptu habitat range. field technicians intentionally or unintentionally O Wild Ass need access to a greater variety of became a major factor to dissuade poaching in habitats and water sources during the summer their pastures. Lastly, just by virtue of having the to meet physiological and lactation needs; research connected to local populations, aware- there is a preliminary indication that Wild ness of the Wild Ass's dire situation can effectively Ass do have a preference for certain vegetation reach the people who are most able to make a communities and land forms, and that their difference. access to nutrients in rangeland vegetation communities is similar to that of domestic horses. The Wild Ass's Future Is Tied to the Circumstances of the Herders Herders Can Be Excellent Collaborators As in the Kaczensky and others (2006) study, this study continues to support the position that One of the more enthusiastic persons involved in the future of the Wild Ass, and many other wild this study was an older herder who lived several animals, is tied to the circumstances of the Gobi kilometers west of Khatanbulag Soum. When try- herder. If the herders are displaced, experience ing to locate him for data retrieval, it was common compromised livelihoods, maintain negative atti- for the research team to ask other herders about tudes towards the Wild Ass, or engage in free mar- the location of his camp. By the end of the study, ket practices that encourage hunting of wildlife or his neighbors referred to him as "the herder with development of land resources, then the Wild Ass the camera." A local story had been circulating, population will continue to decline rapidly. unbeknownst to the researchers, that this herder's 52 Wild Ass in the Context of SGR Development The main threats currently facing the Wild Findings of this study clearly indicated that Ass are: Wild Ass need large tracts of land, especially during the summer. When/if these resources and 1. Illegal poaching movement opportunities are not available to wild 2. Habitat change (desertification) herbivore such as the Wild Ass because of fencing, 3. Landscape fragmentation (fences and infra- railroads, mineral exploitation, or other human structure) intrusion, then landscape fragmentation may 4. Livestock competition with Wild Ass for be the final causative factor in the demise of the water and forage Wild Ass. 53 5. A Vision for Sustainable Resources Management T he Southern Gobi Region is an inter- wildlife, the human intrusion that has occurred esting part of the world. Although an since the democratic transition to capitalism and arid landscape, it has a relatively intact the market economy, and the accelerated rate of natural biodiversity, the vegetation and economic development and infrastructure con- topography provide habitat for several threatened struction that is just now beginning will have wildlife species, and the pastoral livestock pro- much greater impact on the region's wildlife, natu- duction system that has co-existed with wildlife ral ecosystems, and traditional pastoral livestock and natural ecosystems for millennia remains production. Unless there are major changes, both the dominant form of agricultural production. types of intrusion will probably be exploitative, The largest population of the Wild Ass is located weakly regulated, and purely profit driven, espe- within the boundaries of the SGR, as is significant cially where related to mineral extraction, develop- number of Ibex, Marco Polo sheep, and gazelle. ment of energy reserves and commercialization The location of six Special Protected Areas within of livestock production. Economic development the SGR indicates the importance of the region to without parallel safeguards to ensure protection wildlife. of wildlife, natural rangeland ecosystems, and traditional lifestyles will foster conflict over use of The ongoing transformation of Mongolia the region's natural resources. into a modern nation has significant implica- tions for the conservation of wildlife and natural ecosystems, pastoral livestock production systems, Developing a SGR Natural Resources and traditional lifestyles. The SGR is especially Management Plan sensitive to human intrusion and economic de- velopment even though these are not entirely new It is important that local inhabitants, civil society, to the region. In the eastern part of the region, and the government recognize the implications of the Trans-Mongolia railroad corridor has influ- change so that planning, avoidance, mitigation, enced the region for over half a century, while the and adaptation--as appropriate--can be initi- proximity of the international boundary between ated early in the change process. To successfully Mongolia and the Inner Mongolian Autonomous respond to the impending challenges, Mongolia Region of China has influenced the southern part needs to develop and implement a SGR Natural of the region. Resources Management (NRM) program. A NRM program should be developed and implemented While prior human intrusion undoubtedly through the Ministry of Nature, Environment and had some impact on habitat and large herbivore Tourism, which already has some of the authority 55 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass and the capacity. The program would require The following key activities of the NRM pro- broad-based support from a diversity of stakehold- gram would be required to realize the above listed ers in both the public and the private sectors, such objectives: as the Environment Office of the State Specialized Inspection Agency; Ministry of Food, Agriculture, O Assist provincial and county governments and Light Industry (pasture and livestock divi- with environmental impact assessment prior sions); Land Management Agency in the Ministry to implementation of any economic develop- of Construction and Urban Development; pro- ment activity; vincial and county governments; law enforcement O Ensure developer compliance with require- agencies; and natural resource user entities. ments of the assessment during construction and implementation and after the develop- An effective NRM program would have to ment activity is completed; overcome a number of challenges, including: O Assist responsible entities to develop and enforce necessary regulatory measures that O Exploitative and unregulated economic de- helps ensure natural rangeland ecosystems and velopment that is on-going and is expected to wildlife, especially species on the IUCN Red accelerate as development intensifies; List, are not subject to harm from economic O Transition of the extensively managed pastoral development activities, livestock production- livestock production system to a commercial, related activities, and other types of human profit-driven production system that is more intrusion (e.g. legal and illegal hunting); responsive to the market-based economic O Monitor use of natural rangeland ecosystems system and less responsive to maintaining to determine trends in system health related natural ecosystems in good condition; to livestock grazing pressure and weather O Inadequate efforts to improve capacity of local events; and regional government to manage SGR's O Monitor the impact of climate change on natural resources for sustainability; the dynamics and stability of natural pasture O Climate change interacting with and exacer- ecosystems; bating the negative impacts of human intru- O Study the interactions between pastoral live- sion; and stock, large herbivore wildlife, and sustainable O Solutions to critical social and economic use of natural rangeland ecosystems; and problems in Mongolia already dependent on O Improve capacity of local government and projected revenues from mineral exploitation. pastoral herders to mitigate environmental and financial risk in livestock production to The objectives of a NRM program would reduce livestock caused degradation of natural be to: resources. O Improve regional government capacity to During the collective era (<1990), Mongolia enforce existing laws and regulations, had a well-developed, functional, and effective O Ensure application of environmental reme- rangeland research and management program. diation measures as an essential component Since the transition to a market-based economic of economic development and infrastructure system and a more pluralistic form of government, construction, resource management in general, and rangeland O Encourage and support regional rangeland management specifically, has essentially failed. Al- management and research needed to foster though some pasture research has been undertaken sustainable use of resources by livestock and by both national and international institutions, an wildlife, and organized and systematic pasture research program O Provide meaningful and realistic information has not been re-established even though the need on wildlife needs to government planning and for such a system in a country dominated by exten- management agencies. sively managed livestock production is obvious. 56 A Vision for Sustainable Resources Management The Mongolian National Agriculture Uni- direct use of some of the natural resources through versity has established a Research Center that mining, pollution, etc. may, in the future, have some capacity to address rangeland resource issues. Several donor projects Components of a SGR NRM program (United Nations Development Program, Inter- already exist and, with integration of purpose national Fund for Agricultural Development, and adequate direction and national support, Swiss Development Corporation, Mercy Corps) could be the basis for a relevant, practical, with rangeland components have undertaken and accessible NRM agency. By constitutional or supported adaptive research through their decree, most natural resources are the property project but on a limited basis. Institutionaliza- and responsibility of the state. Natural resource tion of rangeland management and measures to management should be a Government initiative; mitigate pastoral risk has been a primary focus of and given the importance of natural resources the World Bank's Sustainable Livelihood Project. to Mongolia, the NRM agency needs to be These efforts, while valuable, are too narrowly strong and supported politically, financially, and focused and, at the best, provide only short-term philosophically by the Government. It should support to development of rangeland manage- have a presence at national, regional, provincial ment. The failure of the national government and (aimag), and county (soum) levels. An effective international donor agencies that have projects and functioning SGR NRM program should involving or related to livestock production or have at least four primary emphases: implemen- resource use to institutionalize and support a tation, enforcement of compliance, policy and national rangeland research and management regulatory, and education. program will contribute to large-scale exploitation of natural resources and overgrazing of rangelands The key implementation and management throughout much of Mongolia. unit of the NRM agency should be formed from provincial and county government staff. The Developing a new SGR NRM program will NRM staff will need to have: be time consuming and complex since manage- ment should be inclusive of all resources and, O Technical capacity in resource management by definition, should integrate knowledge and and planning, project implementation, and expertise from many disciplines and sources. The environmental assessment; diversity of resources, which are both abiotic (i.e., O Management capacity for pasture and habitat, solar radiation, water, minerals, soils, and air) and fish and wildlife, and all aspects of livestock biotic (i.e., vegetation, fish and wildlife, livestock, production. and humans), increases the complexity of manage- O Direction from provincial and county natural ment as some resources will either need to be ad- resource advisory councils (i.e., similar to the dressed singularly or comprehensively depending resource management and planning councils on the particular management situation. Resource currently being established in the second management without a process to control or phase of the World Bank-financed Sustainable regulate use (i.e., in the SGR, primary users are Livelihoods Project). wildlife, livestock, and humans) will guarantee the O Inputs into resource planning and manage- ineffectiveness and ultimate failure of any NRM ment solicited from users such as herders and program. Most importantly, human use, whether other rural citizens. by herders or developers, needs to be controlled O NRM-trained representation from Law and regulated because human impact on natural Enforcement and Environmental Inspection resources is both indirect and direct. Humans in- agencies. directly use most of the abiotic and biotic resourc- es by harvesting livestock and wildlife directly for Integrated provincial and regional offices food, shelter, and clothing or for sale within the with broader-scale NRM responsibility should be market economy. Humans also have exploitative established to support county field offices. At the 57 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass national level, a Natural Resources Management Improving Environmental Assessments Coordinating Council should be established as an office directly responsible to the Prime The capacity of the Mongolian private sector Minister. New information obtained concerning to conduct environmental assessment has made any aspect of natural resource management and considerable progress during the transition period. from many different sources, especially from the Most economic development projects require an NRM planning program, should be funneled to environmental assessment to identify and evalu- the NRM unit. ate potential impacts of the proposed activity. The environmental impact assessment should evaluate If such a NRM program was initiated in impacts of development on water resources, air the SGR, it will have far-reaching impacts on and climate, soils, vegetation and wildlife; and development strategy and resource conservation present guidelines for reclamation and environ- by improving understanding of the impact of mental compliance activities. However, current various human development activities, provid- capacity to enforce compliance with environmen- ing national and local experience in conservation tal guidelines and ensure reclamation of disturbed management, and focusing attention on prob- sites is weak (Reading and others 2006). lems associated with economic development. Institutional models used in other countries with The NRM program could determine what similar environment and natural resource man- reclamation and environmental compliance agement problems may be applicable and should activities are required of a developer in relation be evaluated (Box 5.1). to natural grassland ecosystems and wildlife, and Box 5.1. Models of Natural Resources Management Agencies In the United States, public agencies received their first mandate to regulate and manage use of public lands with the passage of the Taylor Grazing Act of 1934, leading to regulation and enforcement of rangeland use. Subsequent to this Act, various public agencies, which include the Department of Agriculture's Forest Service and Department of Interior's Bureau of Land Management, were funded and staffed to manage public lands that were under their jurisdiction. Although an imperfect system at the time, these agencies were able to manage public lands to the degree needed to reverse trends in ecological degradation and initiate ecological recovery. Mongolia should heed the example and develop similar rangeland monitoring and management capacity. Without this capacity, there is no reason to think that cur- rent trends of overuse, conflict over access to resources, and negative environmental impacts will be reversed. Agencies of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)--Forest Service, Natural Resource Conservation Service, and Farm Service Agency--work directly with farmers, ranchers, and other resource users, including wildlife managers, to develop sustainable uses and conservation of natural resources. In Canada, the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (PFRA) manages public Crown lands and actively rehabilitates degraded and abandoned crop and pasture land. In both countries, these institutions work directly with individual and group users of natural resources to develop and implement conservation programs. A major contributor to the effectiveness of state/province and national natural resource management agencies in the United States and Canada was the highly effective research and extension system of the western state/provincial universities, and in particular the successful development of good rangeland and livestock research and management practices, which were effectively transferred to livestock produc- ers via linked extension services and experiment stations managed by those universities. Ideally, something similar will be developed in Mongolia as Mongolia has in place the components needed for rational natural resource management in the SGR. In 2006, a National Coordinating Council for Rangeland Management was established. Although established specifically to address the ministerial location of a rangeland management division, the inclusion of representatives from resource-oriented ministries and agencies would easily permit expansion of the Council's mandate to include all natural resources. The responsibilities of the expanded Council should, in due course, be similar to those of agencies/services in the USDA or PFRA, including development of management and standards criteria, policy develop- ment and implementation, coordination of national and international projects, oversight of NRM activities undertaken by ministries, etc. An NRM project in the SGR would also provide a format for determining the most suitable institutional structure to facilitate integrated natural resource management. 58 A Vision for Sustainable Resources Management monitor compliance in undertaking required res- O The managerial capacity of livestock produc- toration activities. It would improve the capacity tion household/groups under environmental of provincial and county environmental inspec- or financial risk is usually inadequate to avoid tors to enforce mining companies' compliance negative environmental impacts. with environmental regulations and safeguards O By constitutional decree, rangeland ecosys- as well as duties defined in the mining law and tems are controlled and managed by the state. during the environmental assessment. It would As such, the state has a responsibility to moni- also increase the effectiveness of environmental tor and manage rangeland ecosystems for the inspectors to prevent exploitation of large her- benefit of all citizens. bivore populations through illegal hunting and poaching. Monitoring Trends Strengthening Policy and Regulations of Livestock and wild herbivores have similar habitat Rangeland needs and often interact on a daily basis. Likewise, the land, vegetation, and water resources are also Several laws that pertain to rangeland use and ani- exploited for other uses that are often not com- mal management need to be strengthened, revised, patible with either the needs of livestock or large or redrafted. Especially pertinent to sustainable wild herbivores. The SGR experiences extreme use of natural rangeland ecosystems is the new temperature and low, irregular precipitation. It is Rangeland Law, still in draft form since 2000. The thus especially sensitive to climate change impacts draft law does have regulatory provisions relative on habitat used by both large wild and domestic to overstocking, degradation of rangeland, entities herbivores. This must be factored into approaches with access rights, prohibited activities, and rights taken to ensure conservation of wildlife, pastoral of rangeland possession. However, the draft law livestock production systems, and natural re- lacks capacity to manage rangeland ecosystems. sources. There is little or no capacity to implement and en- force provisions of the Rangeland Law and other Long-term monitoring of economic devel- appropriate regulatory mechanisms. A review opment, livestock use of natural resources, and by the United Nations Development Program climate warming is possible if available monitor- (Hannam 2007) notes that effective application of ing tools are applied and used consistently. Annex tenants of the of the new Rangeland Law would G details various monitoring systems being used require the addition of some 400 trained pasture today for monitoring livestock and vegetation. management staff. Between 2003 and 2007, the USAID-supported Gobi Forage Project developed a Gobi-wide O Rangeland monitoring and management, system capable of providing advanced warning of including regulating use and making range- impending drought, dzud, and other weather- and land improvements, requires public sector climate-related catastrophes. The technologies involvement, based in part on the following used in the model allow the acquisition of satel- rationale: lite-based weather data from the National Oceanic O Rangeland ecosystems occur across admin- and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to istrative boundaries and require centralized feed temperature, precipitation, and solar radia- monitoring and management by a non-user tion values into a rangeland forage growth model entity. (PHYGROW) to provide daily estimates of forage O Rangeland ecosystems are of national impor- on offer to a mixed population of herbivores. tance and are critical to sustaining livestock production that continues to be a primary PHYGROW already has the capacity to oper- industry and livelihood support system in ate in the SGR (Box 5.2). Employing it as a direct Mongolia. near-real time monitoring tool would provide a 59 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Box 5.2. PHYGROW Forage Growth Model Although developed as the primary component of a Mongolian Livestock Early Warning System (Sustainable Livelihood Project 2007), the PHYGROW technology and procedures provide a near-real time method of accurately monitoring rangeland ecological condition, degrada- tion trends, and interactions between large wild and domestic herbivores in the SGR (Sheehy and others 2006). · Vegetationmonitoring. The PHYGROW technology relies on establishment of a series of carefully selected, random monitoring points. At these points, vegetation is measured and characterized by basal area of grass species, frequency of occurrence of herbaceous spe- cies, and effective canopy cover of the woody species. Data is input along with soil surface and horizon characteristics of the monitor- ing points and animal grazing rules derived from interviews with herders and specialists in the immediate area of the monitoring grid. · Climateandweathermonitoring. A climate map layer is developed from weather information obtained from reporting stations within the county and surrounding area. A matching technique is used to assign known historical weather data with the newly created climate map layer. The system produces a 50-year weather projection set that forms the foundation for comparing current forage conditions in terms of percent deviation and percentile ranking at selected grid locations. The key to success of this technique is to locate and properly match historical weather data with the selected grid in terms of behavior of events in a selected locale. A NOAA global weather-data satellite covers Mongolia each day showing daily rainfall, temperature, and solar radiation. · Animalpreferencemonitoring. PHYGROW accounts for differential preferences of mixed populations of large herbivores and models growth of individual plant species or functional groups of species competing for vegetation resources under selective grazing. Each monitoring site is then run for the 50-years and daily percent deviation, and percentile ranking is determined for each day based on a "day of year" average standing crop of forage usable by a target herbivore (e.g., cattle, sheep, goats, horses, Wild Ass, and gazelle). Associated soils, grazing rules, and satellite-based weather data is used to produce daily estimates of forage production, deviation from normal forage on offer, and associated percentile ranking. Advanced geo-statistics coupled with the Normalized Difference Veg- etation Index (NDVI) greenness data are used to map areas of forage deficiencies and excesses, as well as provide 90-day forecasts. · Foragemonitoringandforecasting. To map forage on a regional basis, predetermined monitoring sites reflecting the variety of landscapes and climate conditions are established across the selected region. Monitoring sites provide information on current condi- tions, past conditions and their trends, likely emerging conditions with updates every 7 to 10 days, and new projections being made. The forecasting technique uses the ARIMA forecasting techniques. The resulting map of forage supply and deviation is a provided on 8x8 square-kilometer grids for the entire region. Timely issuance of reports on forage conditions relative to expected long-term aver- ages updated every 7 to 10 days, with 90-day forage forecasts and projected probabilities of precipitation and temperature issued monthly provide a new dimension to monitoring rangeland and large herbivore use. Once analysis is completed, a website is updated automatically and all the data from 1998 to present are made available to the public, NGOs, and other interested organizations. The website is http://glews.tamu.edu/mongolia/. The Center for Natural Resource Information Technology at Texas A&M University provides the analysis hub. · CurrentapplicationsofthePHYGROWforagemonitoringandforecastingtechnology. PHYGROW is currently used to monitor and forecast vegetation growth and changes in East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania), the United States, and Mongolia. PHYGROW will also be an integral part of the Livestock Early Warning System currently being developed for Afghanistan. In East Africa, the status of vegetation quantity and quality derived from PHYGROW modeling is the basis for drought advisory bulletins distributed bi-weekly to agricultural community centers, government, and NGOs working in the four country region. In the United States, PHYGROW is used by government agencies to (a) determine the distribution and amount of understory vegetation on forested lands to assist fire managers in predicting wildfire events (USDA-Forest Service); (b) predict vegetation growth, amount, and distribution on rangeland to determine proper livestock stocking rates (USDA-Natural Resource Conservation Service); and (c) monitor vegetation changes at military training areas to regulate amount and duration of training impacts on natural resources (US Department of Defense). In Mongolia, PHYGROW monitoring and forage forecasting is established for 8 of the 21 provinces, including the 6 provinces in the Gobi Region. Bi-weekly reports on forage condition are compiled and distributed to soum government staff. The PHYGROW technology and procedures can provide resource managers with near-real time information about rangeland ecological condition, forage quality and quantity, and rangeland degradation trends. With completion of the Mongolian nutritional balance equa- tions, resource managers will be able to better understand interactions between large wild and domestic herbivores relative to impact of co-use on rangeland habitats (Sheehy and others 2006). Although output from the PHYGROW Forage Forecasting model is being used by resource managers, PHYGROW will have even more applicability if used in conjunction with other recent technological developments and within a nationwide Natural Resource Management program. However, PHYGROW has only limited potential as a grazing management tool for private producers. PHYGROW will have more applicability to private sector use when full coverage of Mongolia is obtained (i.e., in 2012). When completed, natural resource managers and the NRM program will have access to a functional natural resource monitoring tool adapted to Mongolian conditions. 60 A Vision for Sustainable Resources Management truly interactive set of tools to evaluate impacts integrated NRM program. Decision support of economic and infrastructure development, systems that can assist managers and users to make livestock grazing interactions with large wild appropriate decisions relative to sustainable use of herbivores and natural rangeland ecosystems, and natural resources, such as Grazing Land Applica- climate change in the SGR. tions and Nutritional Balance Analyzer (Texas A&M University), are available for use in a NRM PHYGROW was not explicitly designed to program. Integrating such technologies into a monitor climate change, determine large herbivore NRM program will improve capacity to monitor wildlife and livestock interactions, or economic SGR rangeland resources information on both a development impacts on wildlife habitat and landscape and site-specific scale, develop and assess pastoral livestock production. However, most of resource data, and generate near-real time output the databases and much of the output informa- that can be immediately used by natural resource tion has immediate application to monitoring managers and users. natural resource use, natural rangeland ecosystems (including large wild herbivore habitat), degra- The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrol- dation associated with economic development ogy is a national level institution that employs a and livestock grazing, and the impacts of climate data collection system at local levels to determine change on vegetation and water resources. Col- pasture conditions. Although the data is used lected data is accessible by the public through a to determine pasture status relative to yield and website (http://glews.tamu.edu/mongolia/) and drought, it does not appear to be used effectively can be used for analysis at county, provincial and to aid herder and local government decision-mak- other scales. The Center for Natural Resource ing. Combined with PHYGROW, the two systems Information Technology at Texas A&M University might have improved functionality as an indicator provides the analysis hub. of rangeland condition, capacity to support exten- sively managed livestock production and improved In addition to PHYGROW, the Kinetic national and local capacity to react quickly to Resource and Environmental Spatial System mitigate weather and other anomalies affecting the (KRESS), a large herbivore habitat model devel- livestock production system. Most data is collected oped by Oregon State University, uses Global Po- at county administrative units by local people. sitioning Systems (GPS) technology. It was tested during the initial work on Wild Ass supported by In the current context of livestock and the World Bank/NEMO study (Kaczensky and resource management, rural people and govern- others, 2006). It examined impacts of human ment in general have little capacity to advocate intrusion on the Wild Ass and provided informa- for government assistance to resolve issues that are tion on large herbivore rangeland use that was affecting their livelihood or to effect meaningful correlated with landscape information. Also, Near change to management of natural resources, mar- Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) fecal keting of livestock, or protection of wildlife. Herd- profiling used to determine large herbivore dietary ers that lose their livestock to drought and/or dzud quality is being tested and adapted to Mongolian move to the urban areas and become the urban conditions by the USAID/Mercy Corps Gobi For- poor. Many of the so-called "Ninja" miners are age Project. The availability of technologies such rural people, including herders, who mine often as Google Earth, which radically improves access illegally to generate income to supplement income to earth imagery on a global basis, will substan- from sale of livestock products. However, retaining tially improve capacity for planning use of natural herders with knowledge of natural resource use to resources. support research and management initiatives not only provides the herder with a mechanism for lo- Other applicable near-real time technologies cal empowerment and livelihood support but also have had several generations of use as resource helps to resolve resource conflicts. For example, management tools but have not been part of an herders paid to gather data on Wild Ass use of 61 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass pastures and water became advocates for the Wild censed, large-scale, and often open-pit mining Ass rather than supporters of illegal hunting. activities generally cause herders to lose water resources without adequate mitigation or com- pensation. Illegal, small-scale mining activities Monitoring Economic Development despoil rangeland and water resources and, over time; can degrade relatively large areas of highly A similar but separate task of a SGR NRM pro- productive resources critical to wildlife and live- gram will be monitoring economic development stock. Although direct loss of rangeland area from and infrastructure construction activities. This can mining activities or infrastructure development be achieved with high-resolution remotely sensed is not currently substantial, indirect impacts such images. Use of spatial images, updated annually, as loss of water quality caused by stream placer perhaps through the National Geo-Informatics mining in the northern Gobi Region substantially Centre, could be used to monitor infrastructure reduce the value of rangeland habitat for wildlife development and exploitative developments as- and livestock. Large-scale extraction of water from sociated with natural resources. Fine-scale im- underground aquifers to support mining and in- age cover of the SGR would allow an annual frastructure development will, in the future, have inventory of economic development activities a considerable but unknown impact on rangeland and infrastructure construction; legal and illegal habitat and traditional users of natural resources mine development, and rehabilitation of existing in the SGR. and development of new mechanical wells. The fine-scale images should also be tested as to their applicability for livestock and large wild herbi- Facilitating Herder Participation vore census, tracking identified areas of degraded rangeland, and migrations of large wild herbivores An important asset of a SGR NRM program will (Annex G). be pastoral herders who depend on the natural rangeland ecosystems for their livelihood. Most herders have a conservation ethic at heart: they are Mitigating Risk to Livestock Herders concerned about wildlife and sustainable range- land use, and they generally have excellent knowl- A viable and functioning NRM program in the edge about local rangeland conditions and local SGR should address pastoral risk assumed by events. Gaining herder participation in a NRM livestock herders because herder response to risk program is critical to successful natural resource often leads to ecological degradation of natural management, and their concern was evident dur- resources. Livestock production is highly suscep- ing the recently completed case study of the Wild tible to the natural conditions (i.e., weather and Ass in the SGR. climate) and natural resource exploitation risks. Drought and severe winter storms cause losses in During the second phase of the World Bank/ livestock productivity or abnormal livestock mor- NEMO-supported study (presented in detail in talities. In areas where drought and dzud persist Section IV above), local herders were engaged for longer-than-normal periods, continued use of and given digital cameras to monitor Wild Ass forage resources can induce degradation of range- use of their rangeland. Each herder was trained land resources or lead to conflict with wildlife over to use the camera and record desired information their use. relative to Wild Ass numbers and activity. Project staff visited each herder at scheduled times to Herders are increasingly being subjected to download photographs and collect data sheets. a new type of environmental and financial risk. Herders were paid an agreed upon fee for each Both legal and illegal mining activities reduce recorded and photo verified Wild Ass using the herder access to rangeland and water resources herder's rangeland Wild Ass. At the conclusion of needed for optimal livestock production. Li- this study, the herders' perception on the intrinsic 62 A Vision for Sustainable Resources Management value of the Wild Ass use of rangeland resources Mongolia at this time does not have an ef- changed as they began to appreciate their positive fective rangeland research and extension system. value rather than regarding them as a threat. Also, Although a previous Canadian project established the herders' financial status improved as they were the framework for a western-style extension system compensated for their participation and coopera- in the National Agriculture University, and the tion in the study. Herders became advocates for Research Institute of Animal Husbandry (RIAH) protection of Wild Ass, as well as for other wildlife nominally became the University's research and projects in the local area. Looking at the above experiment arm, neither were effectively integrated outcomes, clearly, more work along the same lines into the University or received sufficient support to needs to be instigated. truly function as a national research and extension service. The rangeland division in MOFALI, which was established only in 2008, does not have a Coordinating With Other Projects research component or the capacity to do research. Several international donor projects, such as the Coordination of NRM program activities in the Swiss "Green Gold" project, which is focused on SGR with on-going national and international developing herder grazing associations to enable projects will benefit both the NRM program better management and development of group and the project. For example, in the first phase rangelands, and the World Bank's "Sustainable of the now nationwide Sustainable Livelihoods Livelihood Project" which has a Pastoral Risk Man- Project, Omnigov and Dundgov were among agement component focusing on reducing herder the aimags chosen for piloting approaches. This financial and environmental risk, are engaged in included a pastoral risk management component institutionalizing rangeland management and set out to improve the disaster relief response research. However, this is a slow process at best, capacity of local governments in the event of and with the recent shrinking of the Mongolian drought and dzud. The component also helped economy, commitment by the government of the rural residents by providing low-interest loans crucial, long-term financial support is uncertain. to facilitate rehabilitation of non-operating mechanical wells and develop livelihood alterna- tives, and improved capacity of local govern- Conclusion ment to manage rangeland by providing training in rangeland management and compiling county There are numerous advantages to implement- scale rangeland maps. ing a SGR NRM program at the present time. The technology platforms on which the program The new national phase of the project is would operate are functional, and have been continuing to work with rural residents of these tested in other areas as resource conservation tools. two provinces as well as expand the project into Integration of natural resource information with Dornogov. The pastoral risk management com- information derived from other models and meth- ponent will support development of a Mongolian odologies would substantially enhance natural Livestock Early Warning System based on PHY- resource management capabilities. GROW to provide drought and dzud warning to the three SGR provinces, continue to improve The SGR NRM program would recom- capacity of local government to manage and plan mend national policies and programs to mitigate use of natural rangeland ecosystems, and provide the adverse impacts of economic development, grant support to help reduce livestock herder privatization, exploitation, and human intrusion susceptibility to environmental and financial risk. on natural resources with the expectation that The SGR NRM program would derive consider- national, regional and local agencies, NGOs, etc. able benefit if a cooperative relationship exists will implement them. It should take advantage of with the Sustainable Livelihoods Project and ongoing work already supported by the national similar development-oriented projects. government and the international development 63 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass community. Most of these national and interna- on which successful application of natural resource tional initiatives have a strong natural resource management can be measured and on which a management component, even if the projects' pri- NRM program should be based. As indicated by mary purposes may not directly relate to manage- the study of Wild Ass and livestock relations, the ment of natural resources or wildlife. relationship between livestock and large wild her- bivores is not always antagonistic, conservation of Expected outcomes from developing and im- wildlife can generate supplemental income support- plementing a NRM program in the SGR include: ing herder livelihoods, and uncontrolled economic development will be equally detrimental to both O Improved natural resource monitoring pastoral livestock and large herbivore wildlife. throughout the region using near-real time technologies (e.g., PHYGROW, KRESS, It is especially critical that a NRM program etc.) that have been tested under Mongolian be in place and functioning prior to the antici- conditions and proven capable of monitoring pated acceleration of economic development in natural resources on both a landscape- and the SGR. Unfortunately, that will require immedi- site-specific scale; ate action to be taken in implementing the NRM O An effective NRM program officially sanc- program as the Mongolian government has agreed tioned and supported by the government to allow large­scale mining and associated infra- at national, regional/provincial, and county structure development to proceed in the SGR. In levels; addition, a severe winter is adversely impacting O Nationally coordinated management and livestock and large herbivores wildlife throughout development of natural resources by managers Mongolia. Although the degree to which livestock and users throughout Mongolia; and large herbivore wildlife in the SGR will be af- O A NRM program that resolves conflicts over fected is, at this time, unknown, high winter mor- regional natural resources; and talities of both will further reduce sustainability O Legislation defining natural resource manage- and resilience of the pastoral livestock production ment regulations and policies, and alloca- system and large herbivore wildlife that are depen- tion of funding to implement conservation dent on natural resources in the SGR. The NRM activities. program will also support the position of those who view mining and economic development In the SGR, any NRM program should focus activities as taking precedent over natural resource on ensuring herding families engaged in pastoral conservation. Integration and coordination of na- livestock production and populations of large tional and international efforts to develop a NRM herbivore wildlife are sustainable. It is suggested program is critical to the future of large herbivore that the Wild Ass will be the key wildlife species wildlife and pastoral livestock production. 64 Annex A. Plant Community Composition in SE Gobi Table A.1. Dominant Vegetation Types Found in the SGR ID Description Semi-desert Steppe 25 Artemisia-bunchgrass, bunchgrass (Stipa, Cleistogenes, Agropyron) steppes with Caragana on light chestnut soils 26 Petrophytic forbs-Artimisia-bunchgrass (Agropyron, Stipa) steppes on the light chestnut and mountain chestnut soils. 27 Psammophytic and hemipsammophitic bunchgrass (Agropyron, Stipa glareosa and Stipa gobica, Cleistogenes) steppes with shrubs on light chestnut sandy loamy and sandy soils 28 Hemihalophytic Nanophyton-Artemisia-bunchgrass, Allium-Stipa glareosa steppes on light chestnut solonetz soils and solonetzes DESERT North Desert (Semi-Desert) 29 Bunchgrass (Stipa gobica, Sipa glareosa) with Anabasis, Allium, Ajania, Artemisia Nanophyton on brown desert-steppe, locally calcareous soils 30 Petrophytic bunchgrass (Stipa gobica, Stipa glareousa) with Ajania, Salsola Iaricifolia, Ceratoides papposa, Caragana on brown soils, locally in combination with perennial soltworts on solonetz brown soils 31 Psammophytic bunchgrass (Stipa gobica, Stipa glareosa) with Caragana, Ceratoides papposa, and Stipa-Cleistogenes com- munities on brown loose-sandy soils and sands 32 Halophytic bunchgrass (Stipa gobica, Stipa glareousa) with perennial saltworts, Salsola passerina with Stipa and Allium; Reaumuria songarica with Stipa and Allium communities on solonetz brown soils and their complexes with solonetzes Middle-Desert (Steppificated Desert) 33 Anabasis brevifolia with Stipa gobica, Stipa glareosa, Allium; Nanophyton erinaceum with Stipa, Artemisia, Ajania with Stipa deserts on pale-brown locally weakly solonetz soils 34 Petrophytic Anabasis brevifolia, Sympegma, Ajania, Salsola Iaricifolia with Stipa glareosa deserts on pale-brown soils. 35 Psammophytic Artemisia with grasses, Ceratoides papposa, Caragana, Potaninia deserts on pale-brown sandy soils (continued on next page) 65 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Table A.1. Dominant Vegetation Types Found in the SGR (continued) ID Description 36 Halophytic perennial saltworts with Stipa glareosa in combination with Kaldium deserts on solonchaks and Haloxylon stands on pale solonetz-solonchak South-Desert (True) 37 Anabasis, Nanophyton, Sympegma, Ephedra, low Haloxylon stands on grey-brown desert, locally solonetz soils, often in combination with Sympegma-Potaninia or Artemisia terrae-abbae-Ceratoides papposa communities on sands 38 Petrophytic Anabasis, Salsola Iaricifolia, Sympegma, Amygdalus, perennial saltwort deserts on grey-brown skeleton and grey brown raw soils 39 Psammophytic Psammochloa, Artemisia, Caragana, Potaninia, Zygophyllum deserts, high Haloxylon stands on grey-brown, locally gypsic, sandy, weakly differentiated soils and sands 40 Halophytic, Reamuria, Salsola passerina, Anabasis brevifolia, Brachanthemum deserts on grey-brown solonetz soils and solonchak soils 41 Gypsum-halophytic Nitraria, Haloxylon with Nitraria on perennial saltworts deserts on grey-brown solonchak strongly gypsic soils Desert 56 Sedge halophytic grass (Puccinellia, Hordeum) meadows on saline meadow soils, Iris-Carex duriuscula meadows on saline sod- dy soils, Puccinellia-Achnatherum and Suaeda Achnatherum meadows on meadow solonchacks and saline meadow-chestnut soils with participation of Trisetum-Carex meadows, locally with Phragmites, halophytic forb-grass, Puccinella-Achnatherum meadows on saline meadow-chestnut soils 57 Carex duriuscula-Iris and Anchnatherum communities on saline soddy soils, halophytic grass communities on saline meadow soils in combination with: a) Artemisia frigida-Cleistogenes communities on soddy and chestnut soils, b) Allium and Leymus communities on soddy desertificating calcareous soils 58 Puccenilia, Calamagrostis communities on saline meadow soils, Juncus, Eleocharis-Carex communities on swampy clay mucky- gley soils, Achnatherum and Iris communities with Caragana on soddy desertificating calcareous soils, locally with Phragmites on meadow-swampy soils in combination with: a) poplar stands with shrubs on soddy primitive soils 59 Combination of halophitic meadow communities (Phragmites, Carex, Achnatherum) and shrub tugals (Tamarix, Hallmoden- dron halodendron), locally with Populus on saline meadow and meadow-desert soils. 60 Shrub (Caragana, Halimodentron, Tamarix) Achnatherum splendens communities with Artemisia and halophytic forbs locally with Stipa on soddy desertificating calcareous soils 61 Phragmites, Eleocharis-Phragmites communities on meadow-swampy soils in combination with: a) Elymus-Carex communi- ties on saline swampy clay-mucky gley soils and forb-Puccinella communities with Achnatherum on saline meadow soils; b) Eleocharis-Juncus communities on swampy peaty soils, Leymus communities with Limonium and Achnatherum, locally with shrubs (Tamarix, Caragana) on saline meadow soils; c) Phragmites, Carex-Phragmites communities, locally on peaty gley soils 62 Achnatherum communities (with Carex spp, Carex-Agropyron, Potentilla-Artemisia-Stipa krylovii, Allium-Carex-Stipa krylovii) on meadow-chestnut, locally solonetz soils 63 Combinations of halophitic (perennial saltwort Reaumuria, Kalidum, Nitraria, Haloxylon) communities on meadow and fluffy solonchaks 64 Haloxylon (Reaumuria, Nitraria) with shrubs, sometimes in combination with Tamarix tugals and psammophytic communities on primitive sair soils Source: UNEP Vegetation Type Maps Compiled by the Russian-Mongolian Complex Ecological Study 1995. 66 Annex A. Plant Community Composition in SE Gobi Digitized plant communities of UNEP Vegetation Type Maps compiled by the Russian- Mongolian Complex Ecological Study of 1995 are available for Dornogov aimag and the eastern por- tion of Omnogov aimag (Oregon State University at www.Wild Ass.org). Figure A.1. The Juxtaposition of Plant Communities (Color-coded in Reference to Table A.1) and Livestock Used by Two Herders in the Southeast Gobi Source: C.M. Sheehy (2007). 67 Annex B. Regional Differences Affecting Mongolian Livestock Production Suggestions to Livestock improve regional Environmental Livestock production Livestock production livestock production Eco-region factors risk factors suitability strengths and mitigate risk 1. Hangai- · Elevation · Winter cold and deep Native yak, · Forage produc- · Increase animal access to Hovsgol Re- between 2000 snow limit animal native cattle, tion on natural nutrients during winter and gion (Aimags and 3000 m; access to forage and sheep and rangelands dur- spring by growing hay and of Arhangai, · Mean annual nutrients and reduce reindeer, ing summer and fodder crops on abandoned Hovsgol, temperature efficient use of avail- hybridization fall is high; or marginal cereal grain land; Bulgan and between able nutrients; with English · Harvesting forage · Reduce animal stocking Zavhan). ­2.5°C and · Lack of access to breeds if winter with grazing rate by shifting marginal Mountainous 7.5°C with water during cold and spring animals during livestock producers to alter- region of high minimum periods can be major supplemental summer and fall native forms of livelihood elevation and (­24°C) in factor limiting animal nutrients is optimal; including producing hay, deep valleys January and production; provided. · Hay, fodder and fodder, and supplements for with some maximum · Equilibrium ecosystem grain production sale locally or to other nutri- forest and arid (19°C) in July; function whereby potential are ent deficient regions; steppe. · Between 60 and over stocking of relatively high. · Change pastoral livestock 100 frost-free livestock can change production system from days; annual species composi- yearlong forage dependence precipitation tion and induce soil, to greater dependency on between 200 vegetation, and water nutrient input during the and >400 mm; degradation. winter and spring seasons; · Average wind · Regulate animal numbers speed between according to seasonal access 2­4 m/sec; to nutrients; · Snow cover · Limit goat and camel num- often greater bers in the livestock herd; than15 mil- · Improve herd genetics to limeters in meet developing market depth. demand for quality meat by crossing native cattle with English breeds; · Improve livestock producer access to animal production inputs and competitive markets for off-take. (continued on next page) 69 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass (continued) Suggestions to Livestock improve regional Environmental Livestock production Livestock production livestock production Eco-region factors risk factors suitability strengths and mitigate risk 2. Selenge- · Elevation · Winter cold and deep Native or · Principle · Increase animal access to Onon Region between 1500 snow can limit animal hybrid cattle agricultural crop- nutrients during winter and (Aimags of and 2000 m; access to forage and and sheep. ping area for spring by growing hay and Tov, Selenge · Mean annual nutrients and reduce Mongolia; fodder crops on abandoned and Bulgan). temperature efficient use of avail- · Rainfed & irri- or marginal cereal grain land The region is between 0.0°C able nutrients; gated cultivation and improved hayland;* a basin with and 2.5°C · Lack of access to of cereal grains · Reduce animal stocking drainage to with coldest water during cold (wheat, barley, rate by shifting marginal the north. temperature periods can be a major rye, oats) and livestock producers to alter- in January factor limiting animal hay is possible native forms of livelihood (­20°C) and production; and creates op- including producing hay, warmest in July · Equilibrium ecosystem portunities to fodder, and supplements (19°C); function whereby produce livestock for selling locally or to other · Between 70 over stocking of feed grains and nutrient deficient regions; and 120 frost livestock can change silage; · Regulate animal numbers free days; species composi- · Forage produc- according to seasonal access · Annual precipi- tion and induce soil, tion on natural to nutrients tation between vegetation, and water rangelands dur- · Limit goat and camel num- 250 and 400 degradation. ing summer and bers in the livestock herd; mm; fall is high, · Change pastoral livestock · Snow cover · Harvesting forage production model primarily averages 5­10 with grazing dependent on annual forage mm; animals during growth to "nutrient supply" · Wind speed av- summer and fall model dependent on har- erages between is optimal for vested feeds during winter 4 to 6 m/sec. rangeland use. and spring and forage during summer and fall; · Primary region suited to de- velopment of an integrated, semi-extensive livestock production system. (continued on next page) 70 Annex B. Regional Differences Affecting Mongolian Livestock Production (continued) Suggestions to Livestock improve regional Environmental Livestock production Livestock production livestock production Eco-region factors risk factors suitability strengths and mitigate risk 3. Altai Re- · Elevation · Winter cold and deep Cattle, sheep, · Shrub-dominated · Increase animal access to gion (Aimags between 1500 snow limit animal goats and rangeland are nutrients during winter and of Uvs, and 4000 m; access to forage and horses in the optimal winter spring by growing hay and Bayan-olgii, · Mean annual nutrients and reduce north; sheep, and spring sea- fodder crops in oases, by Hovd, Zavhan temperature efficient use of avail- goat, and son rangelands rehabilitating abandoned and Gobi- between able nutrients; camel in the for adapted irrigation developments Altai). High ­2.5°C and · Forage and browse south. livestock; as irrigated hayland (i.e., mountain 5.0°C with low production potential · Harvesting forage especially legumes such as and desert temperature on natural shrub and browse with alfalfa), and by importing valley region (­24°C) in rangelands is low; adapted grazing animal feed from more in western January and · Lack of access to animals during efficient feed producing Mongolia. high in July water during cold all seasons is regions; (22°C); periods can be major optimal, · Reduce animal stocking · Between factor limiting animal · Hay, fodder and rate by shifting marginal 60­120 frost production; grain production livestock producers to alter- free days; · Equilibrium ecosystem potential is low native forms of livelihood, · Precipitation function in the except in a few by rationalizing livestock between 400 north whereby over oasis and devel- numbers and kind, and by and 500 mm; stocking of livestock oped irrigated obtaining higher annual · Snow depth can change species areas. livestock turnover; ranges between composition and in- · Regulate animal numbers 5 to >15 mm duce soil, vegetation, according to seasonal access · Wind speed can and water degrada- to nutrients; occur between tion, non-equilibrium · Limit Cashmere goat, cattle, 2 and 6 m/sec. ecosystem in south and horse numbers as a whereby environ- proportion of herd; mental influences · Improve application of the such as drought and/ pastoral, extensively man- or dzud in combina- aged livestock production tion overstocking model by developing and can change "steady rehabilitating wells and state" conditions very by facilitating distribution quickly as well as deci- of livestock and livestock mate large herbivore producers. populations. (continued on next page) 71 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass (continued) Suggestions to Livestock improve regional Environmental Livestock production Livestock production livestock production Eco-region factors risk factors suitability strengths and mitigate risk 4. Central · Elevation · Winter cold and deep Sheep, goat, · Has potential · Increase animal access to and Eastern between 900 snow can limit animal horse, and as an area to nutrients during winter Steppe Re- and 2,000 m; access to forage and cattle produce hay and and spring by developing gion. (Aimags · Mean annual nutrients and reduce other livestock improved hay and animal of Dornod, temperature efficient use of avail- feeds (i.e., during feed grains capacity on Hentii, between 0.0°C able nutrients; the collective era, abandoned hay and crop Sukhebaatar, and 2.5°C with · Lack of access to water there were 20 farms for sale locally or to Dornogov and low in January during all seasons state hay farms in other nutrient deficient Dundgov). (­20°C) and except along major the region). regions1; Broad, high in July rivers is a major factor · Considerable · Improve livestock produc- essentially (22°C); limiting animal unused range- tion potential of the region treeless grass · Between 110 production; land exists in by developing wells and steppe region and 140 frost · Equilibrium ecosystem the eastern and livestock shelters; in central free days; function whereby northern part of · Regulate animal numbers and eastern · Precipitation over stocking of the region, according to seasonal access Mongolia. between 150 livestock can change · Has potential to nutrients; and 250 mm; species composi- to become an · Limit goat and camel num- · Snow depth tion and induce soil, export region for bers in the livestock herd; ranges between vegetation, and water livestock offtake · Change pastoral livestock 5 to 10 mm; degradation; because of close production model primar- · Wind speed can · High winds during proximity to ily dependent on forage occur between spring and lack of railroads, water yearlong to "nutrient supply" 4 and 8 m/sec. topographic animal transportation, model dependent on har- shelter can limit and large popula- vested feeds during winter livestock production tion areas in and spring and forage efficiencies; China, during summer and fall; · Difficulty of access · Forage produc- · Develop regional value- to major markets tion on natural added facilities to improve and low human rangelands dur- export potential. population is a major ing summer and constraint except in fall is high, the western portion of · Harvesting forage the region and along with grazing the rail corridor. animals during summer and fall is optimal for rangeland use. (continued on next page) 72 Annex B. Regional Differences Affecting Mongolian Livestock Production (continued) Suggestions to Livestock improve regional Environmental Livestock production Livestock production livestock production Eco-region factors risk factors suitability strengths and mitigate risk 5. Gobi Re- · Elevation · Lack of snow water for Native sheep, · In winter and · Increase animal access to gion (Aimags between 700 grazing animals is a goat, and spring shrub nutrients during winter of Gob- and 1400 m; major factor limiting camel. dominated and spring by importing altai, Bayan- · Mean annual livestock distribution rangeland are supplemental feeds; hongor, temperature and production in the optimal range- · Improve livestock distribu- Ovor-hangai, between 0.0°C Gobi Region; lands for adapted tion and production Dundgov, Om- and >2.5°C · Non-equilibrium eco- livestock; potential of the region nogov, Gobi- with a low system whereby envi- · During all seasons by developing wells and Sumbaer, and (­20°C) in ronmental influences harvesting forage livestock shelters; Dornogov). January and such as drought and/ and browse · Regulate animal numbers Semi-arid and high of (23°C) or dzud in combina- with adapted according to seasonal access arid southern in July; tion with overstocking grazing animals to nutrients; section of · Between 90 to can change "steady is optimal; · Limit horse and cattle Mongolia > 130 frost free state" conditions very · Region has numbers in the livestock days; quickly and as well as highest potential herd and maintain correct · Average decimate large herbi- to support proportions of goats and precipitation of vore populations; Cashmere goat sheep; 100 mm. · Difficulty of access production. · Maintain and improve · Wind speed to major markets pastoral livestock production between 2 and and low human whereby livestock are de- 8 m/sec. population is a major pendent on annual forage/ constraint to sustain- browse by improving animal able livelihoods; distribution capabilities of · Overbrowsing the livestock herder (i.e., ac- of shrubs which cess to water, transportation dominate vegetation and supplemental feed); communities cannot · Develop regional value- be easily mitigated; added facilities to improve · Hay, fodder and grain export potential; production potential · Develop cross border is low except in a few marketing linkages. oasis and developed · Encourage faster livestock irrigated areas; turnover and initiate annual · Arid ecosystems "severe culling" at the end of are prone to both the fall grazing season; environmental and · Focus livestock production anthropomorphic to take advantage of local, desertification. national, and international markets developing along the rail and road corridor. 73 Annex C. Pastoral Livestock Economies Table C.1. Livestock Production in a Natural Economy Versus an Industrial Economy Industrial economy Natural economy Mongolian livestock economy Change factors Livestock production in Livestock production in a Livestock production in the Mon- Higher human population in the an industrial economy is natural economy is organized golian economy is organized into livestock economy is causing organized into political hier- into natural units (watershed, political hierarchies (aimag, sum, & conflict over de facto possession archies (countries, states, basins, mountains, and natural bag) but generally organizes actual of critical natural inputs (winter counties, cities, private habitats defined by soils, livestock production according shelters, hay making areas, water homesteads). vegetation, and topographic to natural units within the bag sources, and access to markets). features, etc.) where use is (watersheds, seasonal pastures, defined by natural factors of the cooperative decision-making animal and the habitat. concerning access to forage). Livestock production in an Livestock production in a Livestock and habitat are viewed as Change in political and economic industrial economy has po- natural economy views livestock part of a co-evolving habitat with systems is creating situations litical divisions competing and natural resources as part boundaries imposed by biophysical analogous to an industrial and often conflicting over of a co-evolving relationship. constraints (seasonal ranges deter- economy (natural parks and the ownership, use, and Boundaries are imposed by bio- mined by topographic, vegetative, reserve areas, movements to distribution of resources. physical constraints. Livestock and climatic attributes of the assign ownership to components Livestock are mere tools are the basis of livelihoods. natural landscape, knowledge of of natural resources critical for used to exploit natural the interaction between livestock livestock production, conflicts resources for economic and natural resources critical for over access and use of natural benefit to the owner. livelihood sustainability) resources increasing, regulations defining livestock use of natural resources being prepared) (continued on next page) 75 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Table C.1. Livestock Production in a Natural Economy Versus an Industrial Economy (continued) Industrial economy Natural economy Mongolian livestock economy Change factors Livestock production in an Livestock production in a natu- Livestock production in the The change in political and industrial economy has a ral economy has a production current Mongolian economy cur- economic systems is fostering production infrastructure infrastructure, which is only rently has only a partially visible infrastructure development which is visible and recog- partially visible, and its func- infrastructure. Inputs other than (introduction of higher yielding nizable, and its function tion, while poorly understood, locally manufactured inputs are livestock breeds, increase in Cash- is generally understood is the basis of sustainable few (veterinary medicines, supple- mere goats to meet international as animal rearing areas, livestock production. Livestock mental feeds, processing facilities, market demand, development of feedlots, slaughterhouses, production is low input and production to meet market needs). marketing centers). Development feed production, market dependent on local resources. During the preceding collective era, of a more visible production channels, wholesale and livestock production on both state infrastructure will increasingly retail chains. Livestock farms and rural collectives had a be driven by social and economic production depends on more visible infrastructure. considerations affecting the rural provision of inputs obtained human population rather than externally to the local livestock production consider- production infrastructure. ations. Livestock production in the Livestock production in the Livestock production in the Mon- The need to market products over industrial economy is driven natural economy is driven by golian economy is currently almost long distances and the transport by fossil fuel and the need solar energy and the need to entirely driven by solar energy and of households between seasonal to accumulate capital. reproduce. the need to reproduce. Forage is pastures is an impetuous for the basis of livestock production. livestock producers to purchase Nutrients obtained from forage vehicles dependent on fossil fu- determine livestock production els. During the socialist era, rural coefficients such as mortality, livestock collectives provided survival, estrous and birth rates, transport for household move- which affect livelihood sustainabil- ments and transfer of primary ity of rural populations. off-take products to urban distri- bution centers and value-added processing centers. Lack of cash and access to fuel are limiting factors retarding dependence of the livestock production system on fossil fuels. Livestock production in the Livestock production in the Although livestock production is Concentration of animals industrial economy favors natural economy favors relatively dispersed, the trend is introduces density-dependent large centralized production dispersed production among towards concentration of animals feedback mechanisms. Unless facilities (single livestock small units. because of social and economic more top-down interventions are type and breed, feedlots, reasons added to the livestock production slaughterhouses, trading system, sustainability of livestock centers, etc.), which lead to production and ecosystem biological and technological stability can rapidly be negatively monocultures. impacted. (continued on next page) 76 Annex C. Pastoral Livestock Economies Table C.1. Livestock Production in a Natural Economy Versus an Industrial Economy (continued) Industrial economy Natural economy Mongolian livestock economy Change factors Livestock production in the Livestock production in the Most livestock production in Changes will diminish adapt- industrial economy is linear natural economy is circular Mongolia continues to be circular ability of livestock in the and extractive, emphasizing and renewable, encouraging and renewable. An emphasis Mongolian herd to environmental production. reproduction. on production is developing in constraints; The demand for top- some areas (e.g., change in herd down intervention to support structure to favor Cashmere goats livestock with costly inputs will because of market demand for increase. Cashmere, introduction of Suffolk sheep because of potentially higher meat yields). Livestock production in the Livestock production in the Generally, the Mongolian pastoral Waste is a characteristic of an industrial economy creates natural economy has no waste, livestock production system has industrial economy usually waste and fails to fully everything is recycled no waste. In some areas, economic generated by supply and demand recycle resources. and social changes are creating functions of a market economy. waste (e.g., little demand for yak hair, oversupply of Cashmere wool on the world market, little market demand for sheep wool). Livestock production in the Livestock production in the Pastoral livestock production has Pastoral livestock production industrial economy parti- natural economy views natural always viewed natural resources as views natural resources as a tions natural resources into resources as a maze of con- habitats connected through space "continuum" with forage and discrete economic spheres nected habitats. and time. Indigenous knowledge nutrients and shelter as the that operate independently of the livestock herder allowed critical elements of livestock of each other. optimal use of accessible habitats. production. Livestock production In areas where livestock are being in an industrial economy operates concentrated for economic and within artificially defined discrete social reason, the connectivity units that have little relationship between humans, livestock and to the natural environment or habitats is being lost. animal behavior. 77 Annex D. Current Population Status of Selected Wild Herbivore and Predator Species in Mongolia Status of Mongolian Wildlife at present. The Marmot is a small herbivorous animal that has disappeared over much of its' Mongolia harbors a large diversity of wildlife. So range since 2000, even though hunting has been far, scientists have identified 139 species of mam- restricted or banned for several years. Among the mals; 450 species of birds; 22 species of reptiles; 6 two major predators, wolf populations, which are species of amphibians; and 76 fish species (Clark not protected, appear to be declining while snow et al. 2006). Scientists in Mongolia and abroad leopards, which are strictly protected, have an have been documenting the decline of these spe- increasing population. cies over the last several decades, and most believe that this decline is intensifying (Table D.1). In The focus of this annex is on the popula- 2006, the National University of Mongolia par- tion trend of mammals and fishes that are directly ticipated in a "red list" assessment of 128 species threatened by the activities of humans. The species of mammals and 64 species of fish, which is the are divided into groups of large herbivores and most comprehensive survey to date. Of the mam- small herbivores, and main herbivore predators. mals, 16% were considered regionally threatened. The large herbivores are subdivided by the eco- More detailed classification results in 2% critically regions tundra, boreal forest, forest, grass steppe, endangered, 11% endangered, and 3% vulnerable. shrub steppe, desert steppe, and desert-mountain. The status of the fish species was grave with 23% Main threats for all species can be summarized by regionally threatened. A more detailed classifica- competition with livestock for forage and water, tion indicated that 2% were critically endangered, changing land uses such as habitat fragmentation or 13% were endangered, and 8% were vulnerable mining, and direct poaching for animal products. (Red List of Mammals 2006). Populations of herbivorous wildlife until Large Herbivores recently have been relatively high but human intrusion in the form of legal and illegal hunt- ing has substantially impacted most populations Tundra/Boreal Forest/Forest of large wild herbivores. Only the White Tailed gazelle and the tenuous population of Saiga ante- Moose (Alces alces). There are two subspecies of lope appear to have increasing population trends moose in Mongolia: the very small population 79 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Table D.1. Estimated Current Large Wildlife Populations in Mongolia Taimen (Numbers Gazelle (white Snow Leopard Gazelle (Black Unknown) Wild Ass Marmot Wolves Tailed) tailed) Moose Argali Saiga Ibex Elk Year 1940 4,500,000 1960 90,000 1975 50,000 1978 260,000 1979 250,000 1980 30,000 165,000 1981 350,000 1985 100% 1986 130,000 1987 8,000 1989 14287 1990 200,000 60,000 1997 2,950 2000 750 5,240 2001 50,000 14,000 2,500 2002 850,000 1,020 2003 20,000 750 2004 10,000 800 9,000 2005 1,500 2007 950 50% Sources: Batbold 2002, Clark and others 2006, Dulamtseren 1989, Kaczensky and others 2006, Lkhagvasuren and others 2001, Mech and others 2008, Mc- Carthy and others 2003, Reading and others 1997, Shagdarsuren 1987, Winegard and Zahler 2006, and WWF website 2007] of A. a. cameloides and the more abundant A. A. distribution: A. a. cameloides occur along the pfi zenmayeri. A 1989 survey estimated 10,000 Halh River and in the Nömrög River Basin in Ikh individual A. a. pfi zenmayeris in the Hentii and Hyangan Mountain Range (Shagdarsuren and Hangai Mountain Ranges, which represented Stubbe 1974, Shiirevdamba and others 1997). A. 70 percent of the total population. However, a. pfi zenmayeri occur in taiga habitats, particularly populations are known to be declining due to along the Onon and Herlen Rivers in northeastern exploitation, habitat loss, and pollution. Regional Hentii Mountain Range, and along the Eröö and 80 Annex D. Current Population Status of Selected Wild Herbivore and Predator Species in Mongolia Minj Rivers in western Hentii Mountain Range now inhabit Mongolia's Eastern Steppe, but this (Clark and others 2006). number is thought to be declining again (Clark and others 2006). According to latest population Elk (Cervus elaphus). In 1986, the estimated census formula by Milner-Gulland and Lhagva- population of elk or "red deer" was 130,000 suren (1998) there were 4­5 million gazelles in individuals across 115,000 square kilometers the 1940 and 1950s. The population once roamed (Dulamtseren 1989). By 2004, only 8,000­ throughout the entire country but now occurs pri- 10,000 individuals in 15 provinces were counted. marily in Eastern Mongolia (WWF 2007). Main This represents a 92 percent decline over the past threats include dzud conditions; several infectious 18 years (Zahler and others 2004). This species diseases; steppe fires; human and livestock interfer- is primarily targeted for its antler velvet, which ence; predation by wolves and raptors; the mining is highly valued for traditional medicines, with industry; and the Trans-Siberian Railway, which a current market value of US$60­100 per kilo- affects the Mongolian Gazelle's distribution and gram of antlers. Other antler products and body migration (Clark and others 2006). Food overlap parts, including male genital organs, fetuses, and with sheep and goats appears to be very high as female tails are also valued for traditional medi- indicated by Pianka's index (0.977) but not with cines and have similar market values (Zahler and horses (Campos-Arceiz and others 2004). others 2004, Wingard and Zahler 2006). Habitat loss and fragmentation, and human disturbance Plans to reduce threats to the gazelle and its resulting from resource extraction (mining) and habitat's include (a) supporting anti-poaching infrastructure development, constitute threats to initiatives; (b) introducing sustainable pasture some extent (Clark and others 2006). management; (c) supporting alternative livelihood activities in order to reduce pressure on and com- petition for habitat; and (d) expanding habitat into Grass Steppe areas formerly inhabited by Saiga (WWF 2007). Black tailed gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa). Between the 1940s and 1960s, the range and Shrub Steppe-Desert Steppe population size of this species declined in Mongo- lia by 30 percent (Lkhagvasuren and others 2001: Wild Ass (Equus hemionus). In 2003, the popu- 159­167). In 1990, the population was estimated lation was estimated to consist of 19,000­20,000 to be 60,000 animals (Amgalan 1995). Hunting is individuals (B. Lkhagvasuren, personal commu- the primary cause for this population decline. This nication), but is declining at 5 percent per year. species requires very little water, but it is theorized Dominant threats are illegal hunting for meat and that increasing numbers of livestock compete for skins for commercial use (Duncan 1992, Stubbe use of oases, resulting in pasture degradation. and others 2005), habitat degradation due to hu- Mining is not causing a substantial loss of habitat man intrusion, resource extraction (mining), and at present, but associated human disturbance is increasing numbers of livestock. Habitat fragmen- a threat in some areas (Clark and others 2006). tation and restriction of long range migrations is a Trophy hunters can purchase hunting licenses, significant problem along the Ulaanbaatar-Beijing from which US$450 is allocated to the govern- Railway and the China-Mongolia border (Kac- ment (MNE 2005). zensky and others 2006), and is also caused by developing roads and railway lines associated with White tailed gazelle (Procapra gutturosa). increasing resource extraction. Population size has increased following the epizootic disease and extreme droughts in 1980 Conservation measures needed include that reduced the population to approximately enhanced enforcement of existing protective 150,000­180,000 individuals (Lushchekina and legislation, including strict control at border others 1983). Over 2 million Mongolian Gazelles posts between Mongolia and China to prevent 81 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass the illegal export of carcasses and control of meat absence of management plans and rural economies markets to prevent illegal trade in carcasses within have not benefited. Thus, poaching of the animals Mongolia. Maps of critical habitat and movement for cash has occurred due to poverty in these areas. corridors should be considered when planning In addition, the Argali is experiencing habitat transportation routes and fences (Kaczensky and loss from mining and greater competition with others 2006). livestock (Reading and others 1997, 2003, 2005; Wingard 2005). Saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica). This endemic species exists in two isolated populations in Interviews with rural pastoralists in Siilkhemi- Mongolia; the Sharga and the Mankhan popula- in Nuruu National Park in western Mongolia sug- tions (Mallon and Kingswood 2001). Annual gest positive attitudes toward the Argali. Herders surveys by WWF Mongolia and the Mongolian are generally aware of and support government Academy of Sciences estimated the total Mon- protection but may not be able or willing to golian population to consist of 2,950 individuals reduce herd sizes or modify grazing regimes for the in 1998, rising to 5,240 in 2000 (Dulamtseren benefit of wildlife without compensation (Ma- and Amgalan 1995). However, by 2005, the roney 2005). numbers had dropped to 1,500. This makes it the most threatened and endemic ungulate species Ibex goat (Capra sibirica). In 1987, the first (WWF 2007). The population is very small and Mongolian Red Book estimated the total popula- therefore vulnerable to stochastic events such as tion in Mongolia to consist of around 80,000 severe winters (Lkhagvasuren and others 2001). individuals (Shagdarsuren and others 1987). Hunting levels in Mongolia may still be relatively Numbers are believed to have declined since this low in comparison to other species (Lkhagvasuren peak (Mallon and others 1997). As with other and others 2001), but the horns of males, used in ungulates, causes are exploitation, habitat degra- traditional medicines, still invokes hunting pres- dation, and competition for resources. Even so, sure and results in skewed sex ratios (Zevegmid trophy hunters can still purchase hunting licenses, and Dawaa 1973). This hunting is exasperated by which cost US$800 for Altai ibex and US$720 for economic collapse in the rural areas of Kazakhstan Gobi ibex (Clark and others 2006). and Kalmykia (Milner-Gulland and others 2001). Bactrian camels (Camelus bactrianus ferus). The Saiga appears to be stabilized for the mo- The wild Bactrian camel population has reached ment but is of concern because of the population's an extremely tenuous position due to declines in small size. Full aerial surveys are needed in the numbers and reproductive success. Estimates of Betpak-dala (Kazakhstan) and Mongolian popu- the population have proved difficult to obtain lations, and funding is urgently required for the and need to be more accurate. However, only 277 control of poaching in all parts of the Saiga range camels in 27 groups were observed in 1999 (Read- (Milner-Gulland and others 2001) ing and others 1999) and 463 mature individuals were counted in 2005 (Adiya and Dovchindorj 2005). Perhaps the greatest threat facing an already Desert Mountain tenuous population is hybridization with domestic camels. The extent to which this occurs remains Argali bighorn sheep (Ovis ammon). The Argali unclear, but some scientists believe that herders sheep population has plummeted by more than 70 breed their domestic camels with wild camels. percent over the past 50 years. Some 50,000 Argali were counted in 1975, whereas the census of 2001 and 2004 counted only 13,000 (WWF 2007). Small Herbivores The main factors behind the decline are related to hunting and poaching for horns that are prized Marmot (Marmota sibirica). In 1990 the as trophies. Over harvesting has occurred in the population was estimated to consist of 20 million 82 Annex D. Current Population Status of Selected Wild Herbivore and Predator Species in Mongolia individuals (Wingard and Zahler 2006), falling to 1.5 leopards per 100 square kilometer (WWF to 5 million by the 2001 assessment, indicating a 2007, McCarthy and Chapron 2003). The small 75 percent decline (Batbold 2002). Hunting was population is predicted to decline by an addi- completely banned during 2005 and 2006 by the tional 20 percent over the next two generations, Ministry of Nature and Environment. Marmots primarily due to exploitation (Clark and others inhabit steppe and grassland habitats across Mon- 2006), even though hunting has been illegal since golia and suffer from being hunted for skins, tradi- 1972 (MNE 1996). Worldwide, populations are tional medicines, and meat for local, national, and in peril; the Mongolian population represents international trade. This species is conserved under 13 to 22 percent of the estimated global snow Mongolian Protected Area Laws and Hunting leopard population (WWF 2007). Decline in Laws, but no conservation measures are specifical- Mongolia is largely due to poaching for fur and ly in place, and enforcement of existing protective bones and loss of prey species as a result of (il- legislation is weak (Clark and others 2006). legal) over-hunting of ibex, argali, and marmots. In addition, loss and fragmentation of habitat and competition with livestock for remaining habitat Predators is an issue. Some of the illegal killings are retalia- tion killings for loss of livestock (WWF 2007). In Wolf (Canis lupus). In 1980, the Mongolian general, there is a lack of awareness and support Academy of Sciences estimated there were 30,000 of local people for the conservation of the snow wolves in Mongolia. More recent estimates are less leopard, its prey and habitat (Evans and others precise, but the most recent results suggest 10,000 2003). animals remain in Mongolia (Mech and Boitani 2008). Conservationists have turned to incentive pro- grams to motivate local communities to protect Brown bear (Ursus arctos). The brown bear has carnivores. This has been promising in some areas. been added to the Government's official List of However, initiatives to offset the costs in terms of Rare Animals (WWF 2007) in large part because livestock and to make conservation beneficial have so little information about numbers and threats not been expanded beyond isolated experiments. is known. What has been determined is that a Making these initiatives comprehensive is the best human-caused change in the availability of habitat opportunity to conserve large carnivores such as is the largest identifiable threat. Illegal and unsus- the snow leopard (Mishra and others 2003). tainable hunting for international trade is also an issue since all body parts are used for traditional Conservation measures must also investi- medicines. Within Mongolia, trade in gall blad- gate illegal hunting and enhance enforcement of ders is the focus of illegal and unsustainable hunt- existing protective legislation, including rigorous ing (Wingard and Zahler 2006). border checks to prevent illegal exports. Snow Leopards (Panthera uncia). Snow leopard NOTE: Visit www.zuil.mn for more population in Mongolia varies from approximate- information. ly 700 to 1,200 animals, with a low density of 1 83 Annex E. Vulnerability of Mongolia to Climate Change W arming of the Earth's climate rapid introduction of new and more efficient system is very hard to dismiss. technologies. Global observations of air and O B1 ­ Convergent world, with the same global ocean temperatures are continu- population as A1, but with more rapid chang- ing to climb, as is the global average sea level due es in economic structures toward a service and to thermal expansion (IPCC 2007). Perhaps the information economy. most visual evidence is the rapid disintegration of O B2 ­ Intermediate population and economic Arctic ice sheets and vanishing glaciers in central growth, local solutions to economic, social, Asia, Western Mongolia, and North-West China and environmental sustainability. (Pu and others 2004). Scientific observations in O A2 ­ Heterogeneous world with high popula- Asia include the migration of plant and animal tion growth, slow economic development and species to higher elevations and cool temperate slow technological change. grassland species shifting northward (Sukumar and others 2003: 266­290; Christensen and oth- The IPCC has developed four potential ers 2004; Tserendash and others 2005: 59­115). future scenarios, of which scenarios B2 and A2 would lead to the warmest climate. Given these scenarios, climate centers around the world have Climate Models developed computer models such as HADCM3, ECHAM, and CSERO to make global predic- Many scientists believe that carbon dioxide (CO2) tions. is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Worldwide emissions grew by 80 percent be- In general, all computer climate models tween 1970 and 2004. However, this growth did that simulate global climate predict an enhanced begin to slow in the early 1990s. The Intergovern- hydrological cycle and an increase in area-aver- mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released aged annual mean rainfall over Asia (Murari and a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in 2000. others 2001: 39­84)). However, difficulties arise They identified four world development scenarios in making predictions at smaller scales. Natural that have become the basis for climate prediction climate variability is relatively larger, making models (A1, A2, B1, and B2): it harder to distinguish changes that may be brought about by the global climate influences O A1 ­ Rapid economic growth, a global (IPCC 2007). population that peaks in mid-century and 85 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Observed Climate Change Meteorological records show that during the last 60 years, the annual mean air temperature for Mongolia's sensitivity to climate change. Mon- the country has increased by 3.61° C in the winter golia has a livestock economy that is intimately and 1.4° C in the spring and autumn. The average linked to weather events. Mongolia's climate is precipitation rate increased by 6 percent from 1940 characterized by long and cold winters, dry and to 1998 (MNE 2008). However, the peak of pasture hot summers, low precipitation, high temperature biomass has declined by 20 percent to 30 percent fluctuations, and on average 260 sunny days per over the past 40 years because of climate change year: 100­150 millimeters of precipitation falls in (Batima 2008). This trend has been verified for the the steppe-desert; and 50­100 millimeters in the last two decades by the Normalized Difference Veg- Gobi Region. Most precipitation occurs in late etation Index (NDVI), which measures the biomass spring and summer, with 50­60 percent falling in of vegetation from remote sensing satellites. July and August alone. Snow contributes less than 20 percent to total annual precipitation (Natsag- dorj and others 2005: 39­84). Emissions Mongolia's total land area is 156 million hect- Development is responsible for much of the ares (Cruz and others 2007: 469­506). Of this, greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, 74.1 percent is rangeland and 1.6 percent is used and many scientists argue that these gases are to make hay to support livestock (MNE 2008). exacerbating climate change. On the other hand, Livestock rely on naturally produced rangeland development greatly insulates human from be- forage for over 90 percent of their total diets. In ing severely affected by climate variability (Cruz total, Mongolia produces 257,700 tons meat of and others 2007: 469­506). Development is which 3 percent is camel, 13 percent is horse, 17 taking place in Mongolia, but there is no regula- percent is goat, 35 percent is beef, and 32 percent tory mechanism that explicitly addresses climate is mutton (Batima 2008). change-related problems (MNE 2008). This linkage makes Mongolia and the live- In 1994, Mongolia's emission of CO2 stock economy very sensitive to climate change. dropped to 9,064 tons of greenhouse gases but is For example, about 200,000 animals are lost every projected to reach 40,571 tons by 2020. At this year because of heavy winter conditions (MNE point in the future, coal will be the predominant 2008). In addition, many species of wildlife live in source of CO2 emissions. Currently, the single Mongolia and the Gobi Region. The South Gobi largest source of greenhouse gases is CH4 from (Dundgov, Omnogov, and Dornogov) in par- livestock herding, which accounts for 90­93 ticular has high populations of large herbivorous percent of Mongolia's total emission (MNE 2008). wildlife that are already threatened or endangered. It is important to note that herded animals have a Further development and human intrusion is ex- small relative carbon footprint compared to indus- pected to increase pressures on their existence. The trialized dairy, pig and poultry production in more added variable of climate change may cause species developed countries. survival to be increasingly problematic. Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere Direct observations of climate change. In 2008, has many implications for evapo-transpiration, Batima conducted a survey of herders in Mongo- water balance, and runoff. Higher CO2 leads to re- lia. Ninety-two percent thought climatic hazards duced evaporation in plants, but conversely causes were the only cause of worsening of their liveli- increased plant growth. Overall, there is greater hood. Fifty-three percent had lost more than total evapo-transpiration from a given area (Kun- half of their animals. Like scientific communities dzewicz and others 2007: 173­210). For example, worldwide, 77­92 percent of the herders felt that it has been predicted that if CO2 concentrations they were observing climatic change. double, then global mean runoff will increase by 86 Annex E. Vulnerability of Mongolia to Climate Change 5 percent (Betts and others 2007, Leipprand and 59­115) while others believe biomass will increase Gerten 2006). (Batima 2008). Most researchers predict that a gradual reduction in annual precipitation will likely contribute to ongoing desertification from Predictions of General Climate livestock overuse. These areas are projected to Change Impacts increase to the north by 6.9­23.3 percent by 2040 and by 10.7­25.5 percent by 2070. In addition, Global. Climate change is projected to compound desertification may lead to a soil carbon decline of the pressures on natural resources from urbaniza- 14.2­48.9 percent by 2040 (MNE 2008). tion and economic development. The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded by In combination with expected urbanization, this combination of rising temperature, changing there may be difficulties in provisioning safe, af- precipitation, ocean acidification, land use change, fordable, domestic water supply (Faruqui and oth- pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, ers 2001). These changes are gradual but long term, and overexploitation of resources (IPCC 2007). and are often associated with increasing vulnerabil- Increased migration of human populations can be ity to extreme weather events, particularly droughts expected over the coming decades (Cruz and oth- and dzud (i.e., severe winter storms with very cold ers 2007: 469­506). temperatures) (Batima 2008). The study of the im- pacts of climate change on wild animal life is in the In Asia, water and agriculture sectors are initial stages. The location of wild animals strongly likely to be most sensitive to climate change-in- depends on natural zones (MNE 2008). duced impacts because of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, and soil degradation (Cruz and others 2007: 469­506). About 1 billion Potential Impacts of Climate Change people will face risks from reduced agricultural on Livestock Production production potential, reduced water supplies or increases in extremes events (Schneider and oth- Potential economic impacts. Global market fluc- ers 2007). By the 2050s, freshwater availability tuations mask variations caused by climate change in Central, South, East, and South-East Asia is at regional scales (Schneider and others 2007). projected to decrease (IPCC 2007). Most semi- However, the market economy that was intro- arid river basins in developing countries are more duced to Mongolia in 1990 is focused primarily vulnerable than in developed countries because of in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar (Batima 2008). rising populations paired with a low capacity to Herders in Dundgov, Omnogov, and Dornogov cope with change (WHO 2005). Provinces must respond primarily to variables found in nature rather than market incentives. Mongolia. Many of these issues could arise in The largest impact on livelihoods is the drying up Mongolia as its population is expected to ap- of water sources and declining forage resources for proach 4.1 to 4.3 million between 2020 and livestock (Natsagdorj and others 2005: 39­84). 2025. Compared to 1993, energy used may be five times greater by 2020 and domestic animals Vulnerability is a function of the expected may reach 41.7 million by 2010. The result will rate of climate change relative to the resilience of be increased pressure on a changing environment the system. However, the vulnerability of natural (MNE 2008). systems is also a function of human developments that block migration routes, fragment habitats, South Gobi. Overall, there is conflicting predic- reduce animal populations, introduce invasive tions on what the Gobi Regions of Dundgov, Om- alien species, and pollution (Schneider and others nogov, and Dornogov can expect. Some estimates 2007). Any changes in the natural systems will predict a marginal decrease in productivity by the greatly affect the human populations that are end of this century (Tserendash and others 2005: dependent on them. 87 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass Herders could benefit economically from mild winters. However, some researchers believe that Figure E.1. Sensitivity Analysis of Biomass in rapid warming in winter can create problems. For the Gobi example, if there is sudden snow melt followed by Sensitivity Analysis of Biomass in the Gobi freezing, then large ice sheets will interfere with 50 pasture grazing (Natsagdorj and others 2005: 40 39­84). In general, climate change compounded 30 20 Percent change with poverty could be a devastating arrange- ment. Gobi herders may have a very low adaptive 10 0 capacity because of limited access to information, ­10 technology, capital, forage, and other agronomic ­20 inputs that will allow them to adjust their produc- ­30 tion strategy to match changing conditions (Cruz ­40 and others 2007: 469­506). Temp +0 Temp +1 Temp +3 Temp +5 Precip +0% Precip ­10% Precip +10% Precip +20% Fortunately, it is evident that current climate variability falls largely within the coping range Source: Batima (2008). Note: In 2008, Batima shows that precipitation is a greater effect on above- of fodder production and it is not expected to be ground biomass than temperature. exceeded significantly because of predicted climate changes (Schneider and others 2007). This makes hay production, especially winter time forage, an important tool for any herder transitioning into predicted climate change scenarios and the very Figure E.2. Predicted above Ground Biomass in real emerging economy. the Desert Steppe in Mongolia Predicted Above Ground Biomass Potential impacts on rangeland. Pasture in the for the Desert Steppe in Mongolia 70 Gobi Regions of Dundgov, Omnogov, and Dor- nogov are controlled primarily by abiotic factors of 60 temperature and precipitation, and the biotic fac- 50 Percent Change tor of animal grazing. Sensitivity analysis of plant 40 biomass examines the abiotic variables and shows 30 that a plant aboveground biomass decreases with increased temperature. However, plant biomass 20 increases with additional precipitation, and this 10 effect dwarfs the temperature effect as can be seen 0 in Figure E.1 (Batima 2008). 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Relative to predictions of computer models, HADCM3 (A2) ECHAM (A2) CSERO (A2) the HADCM3 and CSERO models agree that HADCM3 (B2) ECHAM (B2) CSERO (B2) biomass will increase for the desert steppe region Source: Batima (2008) in both the A2 and B2 scenarios. The ECHAM Note: In 2008 Batima shows that in both A2 and B2 the HADCM3 and model shows no change in biomass for the A2 sce- CSERO models showed increased biomass. nario and decreasing biomass in the B2 scenario (Figure E.2). results of the climate change models, the HAD- As projected by both the NPOESS Preparato- CM3, ECHAM3, and CSIRO all agree within the ry Project (NPP) and Aridity Index, eco-zones of context of scenarios A2 and B2. This means the Mongolia are expected to shift to the north due to Gobi will shift north due to combined impacts of increased dryness and higher air temperature. The increased temperature and reduced precipitation 88 Annex E. Vulnerability of Mongolia to Climate Change while at the same time experiencing an increase in biomass (Batima 2008). Figure E.3. Changes in River Flow Predicted by the Computer Model CCCM Implications for water resources. Mongolia's total 80 water resource is estimated at 599 cubic kilometers 60 of water (MNE 2008), and precipitation plays an enormous role in its recharge and cycling. Unfortu- 40 nately, precipitation is not reliably simulated in pres- 20 % ent climate models and there are conflicting results, often because of the localized nature of precipitation. 0 However, it is well established that precipitation ­20 variability increases due to climate change (Kundze- wicz 2007: 173­210, MNE 2008, Natsagdorj and ­40 Current 2040 2070 others 2005: 39­84, and Batima 2008). AOB IDB POB The Gobi desert and desert-steppe areas are expected to receive less rainfall. This will lead to reduced river runoff, lower water levels in the lakes ter use, generally increases with temperature and basin, and cause drying-up of small lakes in the decreases with precipitation (Kundzewicz 2007: Gobi Region (MNE 2008). 173­210). Coping capacity is particularly low in rural populations found in Dundgov, Omnogov, In the last 60 years, annual precipitation and Dornogov Provinces that are without access to has increased by 30­70 millimeters in the most reliable water supply from large reservoirs or deep south-eastern part of the country (Batima 2008). wells. Even in semi-arid areas where water resourc- The findings of the 5 computer models (CCCM, es are not overused, increased climate variability CSERIO, ECHAM, GDFL, HADLEY) show may have a strong negative impact. For example, that this trend will continue in the first quarter of droughts in 1999 to 2002 affected 70 percent of the century and then decrease, returning close to grassland and killed 12 million livestock (Batima current levels by the mid-21st Century as shown in and others 2005, Natsagdorj and others 2005: Figure E.3 (MNE 2008). 39­84). Adopting management measures that are flexible may be the best approach to dealing with a If there is an increase of summer rainfall, largely unpredictable climate (Stakhiv 1998). there might be a much higher increase of evapo- transpiration. Already, potential evapo-transpi- Potential impacts on temperature. The driver ration has increased by 7­12 percent over the of global climate change is rising temperatures. previous 60 years (Batima 2008). The impact of Eleven of the last 12 years (1995­2006) rank precipitation change is predicted to be greater than among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental that of temperature in relation to river flows. For record of global surface temperature dating back example, Batima found in 2008 that if the annual to 1850 (IPCC 2007). In Mongolia, annual mean precipitation drops by 10 percent while the tem- temperatures between 1940 and 2003 have risen perature remains constant, the average river flow by 1.8° C. Warming has been most pronounced would reduce from 7.5 percent to 20.3 percent. in winter, with a mean temperature increase of For each degree C of temperature increase, there is 3.6° C, while spring, autumn, and summer mean an additional 2 percent decrease in flow. temperatures have risen by 1.8° C, 1.3° C, and 0.5° C, respectively (Batima 2008). However, Recent drought and growing water demands warming temperatures has been lowest in the Gobi is already creating a need for both new infrastruc- desert (Natsagdorj and others 2005: 39­84). The ture and rehabilitation of old infrastructure such cold wave duration has shortened by 13 days na- as wells. Water use, and in particular irrigation wa- tionwide in the last 60 years, but again, it has not 89 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass been as pronounced in the Gobi Desert (Batima 2008). Heat wave duration has increased by 8 to Figure E.4. Change in Ewe Weight Relative to 18 days in last 40 years. One direct consequence Changes in Temperature and Pasture Biomass of the warming is that frequency and aerial extent Change in Ewe Weight Relative to Changes in of the forest and steppe fires in Mongolia has Temperature and Pasture Biomass 1 significantly increased (Erdnethuya 2003). 0 Change In Ewe Weight (kg) In the future, all models predicted winter ­1 warming would be more pronounced than sum- mer warming, especially after 2040 (MNE 2008). ­2 The rate of winter warming varies from 0.9° C to ­3 8.7° C, while the summer temperature increase varies from 1.3° C to 8.6° C (Batima 2008). As ­4 winter temperatures have increased in the past, the ­5 occurrence of abnormal or unseasonable weather ­30% ­20% ­10% 0 10% 20% 30% phenomenon such as windstorms in winter and 0C 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C rapid warming that causes ice sheets have in- creased. This trend of increasing dzud and associ- ated domestic animal mortality can be expected temperature in the winter should provide more to continue if climate scenarios are correct in their opportunity to graze and may more than offset predictions (Batima 2008). any detriment of summertime heat. The Mongolia word dzud describes weather Impact on Livestock events such as heavy snowfall, long-lasting or frequent snowfall, extremely low temperatures, How a changing climate affects the livestock or drifting windstorms that reduce grazing time industry in Dundgov, Omnogov, and Dornogov and have caused serious animal mortality in recent will ultimately be of greatest concern to herders years. Dzud also represents a high risk to humans who live in the region. This effect is a culmination in the affected areas (Batima 2008). As Figure E.5 of the economic, pasture, water, and temperature shows, Omnogov and Dornogov provinces have effects mentioned previously. both experienced extreme dzud events in the past. It is unknown but possible that greater climate Some research points toward a small weight variability associated with predicted climate gain for animals in the Gobi Desert, if pasture change will increase the frequency or severity of biomass and temperature increases as seen in these winter events. Figure E.4. For example, temperature rise has a dominant role in ewe weight gain (Batima 2008). Ewe weight changed relative to pasture biomass and temperature did not affect this change greatly. Figure E.5. Map of Dzud Frequency in Mongolia However, there can be adverse affects as well. Indirectly, decreased animal grazing time can be a large factor in decreased weight gain. The thresh- old temperature above which animals cannot graze has been shown to be 26° C in the Gobi Desert. If animals cannot graze pasture because of exces- sive heat, their daily intake decreases, weight gain suffers; and it may impact their ability to survive a harsh winter (Batima 2008). However, warmer 90 Annex F. Tavan Tolgoi Mining and Electrical Power Generation Complex Implementation Plan T his annex is an excerpt from the execu- Thermal Power Plant of 2 x 50 MW and tive summary of the implementation Power Plant of 2 x 300 MW capacities will be plan to develop the Tavan Tolgoi Min- put into operation at this Complex. These plants ing and Electrical Power Generation assumed to be built and commissioned in 2.5­3 Complex in the SGR. It has been included as an years. Both plants will be equipped with modern annex in this discussion note to illustrate the scale and efficient techniques and technology. Double of development that will potentially occur in the circuit transmission line of 220 kV also will be immediate future in the South Gobi. The electrical built with construction of 2 x 300 MW Power power generation complex development discus- Plant. The purpose of this line is power export to sion does not include development of the mining southern neighbor. operation itself. Another possibility of power supply is elec- tricity import from Inner Mongolia located Bay- Infrastructure annuur power system. In this case, 220 km-long double circuit transmission line of 220 kV voltages Power supply. The initial power for this project needs to be built within two years from the mine assumed to be supplied by 5 diesel stations of 900 complex down to Gashuun Sukhait border station. kilowatt (kW) capacities each. Stations will be The distance from state border to Khailutu--500 mounted in steel containers. The same time with kV sub-station (China) is 150 km long. project start up, following works should com- mence: extension of existing 110 kilo volt (kV Water supply. Water supply will be resolved sub-station at Mandalgobi; construction of 220 through digging underground wells near coal kV power transmission line to Tavan Tolgoi and mine during construction period. In future, water 220 kV sub-station at Tavan Tolgoi. The line will demand of the Complex will be supplied from be built as 220 kV line, however it will be in 110 reserve proved Balgasin Ulaan Nuur site. kV operational regimes. This line can transmit about 20­25 megawatt (MW) of power from Roads. Own auto road network will be devel- CES. After commissioning of this line, the diesel oped at Tavan Tolgoi Complex. This network will station will be reinstalled at major critical points consist of the following roads: improved earth of the Complex as a back-up power sources. road for the mine and concentrator's heavy-duty 91 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass trucks and machinery; paved road between village Detailed environmental impact assessment. The and industrial area; paved roads inside of village. general environmental impact assessment study, In future, paved road between Tavan Tolgoi and done by the Ministry of Environment, determined Dalanzadgad will be built. the directions and schedules for the detailed envi- ronmental impact assessment study. Preliminary activity plan. Construction works will be planned with consideration of issues such Water: as climatic features, frozen ground, ambient O Obtain a professional conclusion based on de- temperature of Mongolian climate. Construction termination of the ground and surface water works planned to be carried out mostly during conditions, and to estimate the required water warm seasons and procurement, commodity trans- demand with the available supply; portation will be done during cold season. O Determine amount and content of the water, which will be wasted from production and other usages, and to plan the expenses re- Environmental Assessment quired for its disposal safe to the environment; O Estimate the water settling and recirculation General. The general environmental assessment tank capacities, the dam design and percola- for the Tavan Tolgoi project has been performed tion/evaporation rates, and to construct them by the Ministry of Environment by the order of with material with least percolation; the "Energy Resource" LLC in accordance with O Not discard the technology waste water di- the "Law of environmental impact assessment". rectly into soil; This general environmental assessment concluded O Determine the impact of mining operation to that a detailed environmental impact assessment the water regime and to determine the moni- shall be performed in accordance with the "Law of toring period and related expenses; environmental impact assessment". The conclu- O Determine the monitoring period and related sions of the general assessment were based on the expenses for the technology water reserve and following: quality, and to include it in the monitoring- analysis program; The environmental impact during the Tavan O Select an optimal option to reduce water loss Tolgoi coking coal mining project implementation and to increase water conservation; shall be determined by performing the detailed en- O Take measures for water conservation of the vironment impact assessment which will help to: surrounding small rivers, creeks and lakes; O Plan activities for ecologically safe removal O Clarify the basic environmental evaluation of of the soil and mine water and to plan the the area; related expenses; O Prepare the environmental protection plan and the area monitoring program, and to plan the Soil: expenses required for their implementation; O Determine and document the current soil O Determine the soil erosion and fault condi- erosion and damage conditions in mapping tions, to prepare a plan of erosion and damage and video forms; prevention and reclamation, and to estimate O Determine the project area soil structure and the expenses for their implementation; vegetation and to plan the reclamation ac- O Determine the methods to protect the clean cordingly; water used for the project, and to safely retreat O Determine the negative impact of the mining the polluted water and wastes; and production to the soil and to plan measures to O Estimate the amount of water required for the reduce it; project in detail and determine the reliable O Determine the mine internal and external water supply and the method to keep the transport routes, the main and auxiliary facil- water balance. ity boundaries in order to prevent soil damage; 92 Annex F. Tavan Tolgoi Mining and Electrical Power Generation Complex Implementation Plan O Clearly define the waste and ore stockpile Reclamation: location in the reports; O Organize the reclamation of the area which O Use the stripped topsoil for reclamation as sustained environmental degradation into soon as possible, or to prevent it from erosion, natural state as much as possible; and to take measures for surface plantation to O Prepare and implement a specific plan to keep microorganism alive; clean up the environmentally degraded land; O Prepare the reclamation program to store and O Implement the annual rehabilitation activities prevent the stripped topsoil in normal condi- plan approved by the Ministry of Environ- tions; ment; O Organize the reclamation activities along Air and climate: with mining operations and keep an optimal O Determine the area's air pollution situation balance of the annual reclamation work load and to plan the air analysis period and related with the mining productivity; expenses; O Prepare the environmental rehabilitation plan O Determine the project area climate changes with assistance of a professional organization and determine the possible production impact before any mining activity takes place; on the climate, the measures to reduce the O Recreate a condition for the degraded land to impact and related expenses; be safe, mechanically stable and for the future O Take measures to spray water during soil wildlife stable growth; stripping and ore haulage in case of dry and O Select and determine the optimal equipment dusty conditions; for technical rehabilitation process; O Prepare a detailed plan for biological rehabili- Vegetation and wildlife: tation process and plantation activities; O Determine the mining impact on flora and O Prepare the rehabilitation plan on annual fauna, take measures to reduce the impact, basis and implement it as part of the annual and the related expenses for activities; mining plan; O Determine the plant types and distribution O Prepare and implement ecologically safe at the project area, likely to impact during methods to discard the mining hard wastes; production, including existence of rare and O Have the detailed environmental impact as- very rare plants. If such rare plants do exist, to sessment study approved by the Ministry of take measures and expenses to prevent them Environment. and relocate; O Determine the project area's animal location, distribution and amount and to determine Environmental Rehabilitation the possible impact of mining production on Activities them; O Prepare a environmental protection plan as Reclamation of the mine working shall be done well as the ecological analysis program; during the mining process, and the mine work- O Evaluate the natural disaster and mining ings to be used for the next year shall be fenced production related accident possibilities and around and labeled and be agreed with the local to determine the prevention and extermina- officials and environmental inspectors in written tion plans; form. O Include opinions of the local community and administration into the detailed environmen- Any operator, participating in the Tavan tal impact assessment report; Tolgoi deposit development, shall have extensive O Organize transportation, storage and usage knowledge and experience in regards to the coal of the fuel, inflammables and combustibles mining as well as power generation plant opera- in safe and environmentally non-hazardous tions and shall implement international manage- manners. ment standard as well as environmental protection 93 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass and rehabilitation activities continuously. When will change the land surface into a new condition the project is implemented, an optimal program even after the rehabilitation. These environmen- for coordination of environmental and social as- tally altered areas will be reclaimed in such way pects of the local community will be prepared and that will not have negative impacts to the local adopted, creative methods will be implemented soil, aquifer, and air conditions. to create a green area around the mine site, to develop the local culture and traditions, and to The environmental rehabilitation process will enhance healthy lifestyle and environment for the go on continuously throughout the mining project local community and employees. development. The purpose of the environmental rehabilitation works is to restore the environmen- The main constructions of the mining project tally degraded land into the pre-mining state as such as the open pit, tailings, production facilities, much as possible and to keep the regional ecologi- living settlement, power station and water pool cal stability. 94 Annex G. Monitoring of Mongolian Rangeland M onitoring of rangeland can employ ernment and herders of developing conditions that several different techniques and will increase their exposure to environmental risk. can be used to collect data at sev- eral different scales. Intermediate-scale monitoring. Intermediate scale remotely sensed data (ground resolution of 15 to 50 m) is especially useful for rangeland Remotely Sensed Information monitoring. It is also very valuable for land and water resource analysis and land use planning. Large-scale monitoring. Advanced Very High Detection of thermal pollution, degradation of Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) information land by moving sand, and geological studies are is the commonly used data generated daily by also common applications of this data. The most NOAA Satellites. This information has the benefit conventional data sources at this scale are Landsat of being close to "real time" in its collection and MSS and Thematic Map data. The Systeme proba- processing because it can be received directly from toire de l'Observation de la Terre or SPOT program satellites and processed quickly by dedicated com- conceived and designed by the French Centre Na- puter programs. The Mongolian National Remote tional d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) provides informa- Sensing Center analyzes AVHRR data which it tion at a slightly finer scale than Landsat. receives daily and has the capability to provide the following output to Aimag government offices: Unfortunately, Landsat and SPOT data is ex- pensive which has limited its use in Mongolia. Use O Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in monitoring rangeland requires that the moni- (NDVI); toring agency have access to Landsat Thematic O Global Vegetation Index; Map data. Information at intermediate resolution O Soil Moisture Maps which are produced in requires relatively sophisticated hardware since the spring and fall; data sets can consume 50 Mbytes or more of O Snow Coverage Maps; hard disk storage. Processor speed is also critical O Meteorological Maps (such as cloud coverage) if tasks are to be done in a timely fashion. Equip- ment usually consists of a workstation with tape Although AVHRR data is very useful, it backup or tape reading capabilities. Currently, the has its limitations because the pixel size is large National Remote Sensing Center is operating a (1 km). Information derived from AVHRR data Micro VAX 3400 computer and several Personal should be used at the national scale for rapid as- Computers (486 PC) are available. sessment of vegetation conditions so that govern- mental programs can react quickly to changing Fine-scale monitoring. Fine-scale monitoring of environmental conditions and inform local gov- rangeland is assisted by the availability of low level 95 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass aerial photography coupled with ground measure- Reference data. Reference Data or ground data ments. Plant cover, usually expressed as percent, is extremely important in remote sensing at all extent of bare soil, and standing crop estimates are scales. Referencing must be done to ensure data the products of this work. Detailed ground moni- quality. Field measurements of plant cover, plant toring of the sites at seasonal or yearly intervals is type, land use, soil type, etc. should be collected needed to reach the level of accuracy needed. Photo- at established monitoring sites. Historical plant graphic and ground based inventories can indicate production data exists for 30 sites throughout changes in plant species composition and provide Mongolia. Most of the sites are associated with explanation for the changes that are occurring. For Research Centers and aimags. example, if plants that are known to be preferred by livestock are disappearing from grazed areas and are present in adjacent ungrazed exclosures then Geographic Information Systems grazing is the likely cause of degradation. If on the other hand, plants are disappearing from both areas Information extracted from remote sensing then drought or climatic change is the probable sources is generally mapped and is often combined cause. As only small areas can be sampled using this with ancillary information in order to increase its technique, sites should be established in critical or usefulness. For example, it may be necessary to representative areas in the pasture resource area. relate remotely derived vegetational cover with factors such as land slope, aspect and soil type in Vegetation dynamics can be ascertained from order to determine erosion potential. Traditionally, image data by using time series analysis. Subse- the data would have been combined by creating a quent geo-referenced images can be compared by series of map overlays made on transparent map setting a threshold and differencing or by regress- sheets and identified by visual inspection. The ing one image upon the other. In both techniques, development of high speed computers presents the points of change between the images are identi- capability to create a spatially registered database fied. Death of plants, degradation by livestock, in which a matrix of cells contains information livestock trails, vehicular trails and soil erosion about a specific area on the map. can be effectively monitored and quantified using these techniques. Images can be overlain on digital Systems designed to store, manipulate, and elevation, slope and aspect models, which further display this information are called Geographic In- enhance their usefulness for monitoring desertifi- formation Systems (GIS). Numerous GIS software cation/degradation. packages exist. The Ministry of Nature and Envi- ronment has selected and installed ARCINFO as A substantial library of high resolution air their GIS package. The Academy of Science, Insti- photos and COSMOS satellite data exists in the tute of Informatics employs ERDAS to process im- Mongolian Department of Geodesy and Cartog- ages. These systems operate on either workstations raphy (this Department also has maps of all of or personal computers. The power of a Geographic Mongolia at 1:100,000 scale and of some regions Information System is derived from its ability to at finer scale). model and manipulate geo-referenced data. Animal population monitoring. Populations of To support various modeling functions, a GIS grazing ungulates can also be assessed using air must be able to handle both locational data and photos if proper preflight planning and statistical attribute or descriptive data about features. Several procedures are followed. Vertical aerial photog- types of area, linear and point data can be encoded raphy has been very effective for census-taking of by digitization so that the full power of remotely populations, provided there is tonal contrast be- sensed data can be realized. When each of these tween animals and background. Scales employed themes or map layers are created based on infor- are from 1:2,000 for small grazers to 1:8000 for mation obtained from remote sensing and actual large animals. site measurements, they can be combined using 96 Annex G. Monitoring of Mongolian Rangeland the GIS in various ways to yield new information information is critical. This is the objective of about the rangeland use and the effect of this use rangeland management planning. Resource Based on pasture sustainability. Decision Support Systems can be an effective tool for management planning providing that timely information is passed to herders and herders find Vegetation Growth Models the information accurate and reliable. Mongolia has extremely dynamic and variable Extensively managed livestock production in vegetation. Because summer rainfall is the result Mongolia is dependent almost entirely on for- of convective storms, precipitation and its resul- age produced on 125 million ha of rangeland. tant vegetative growth is highly variable across the Consequently, the livestock production system landscape. As aridity increases in the Gobi, so does is regulated by forage supply rather than animal climatic and vegetation variability. demand in that herders have traditionally tried to adapt livestock production (i.e., environmentally Remotely sensed information can be used adapted livestock, multiple species grazing, mini- to help the Government of Mongolia set target mal used of supplemental feeds, deferred pastures, numbers for livestock in each sum. Researchers using a diversity of pasture types and land forms in Mongolia have developed predictive growth to assist livestock production, etc.) to the pasture equations for herbaceous vegetation which are environment rather than adapt pastures to animal based on information gathered at 30 research sites needs. The most important constraints affecting throughout the country. Statistical modeling of livestock production in forage supply systems is precipitation, temperature and other climatic vari- the amount and kind of forage produced annu- ables do not provide accurate estimates of standing ally and access of livestock to the forage produced. phytomass. If, however, AVHRR-derived NDVI Both pasture management and livestock manage- were combined with climatic variables a substan- ment traditions have developed in response to tially improved estimate was obtained. Data from forage supply constraints. the various aimag centers are being carefully col- lected and relayed to the National Remote Sensing Utilizing pasture areas to avert risk also resulted Center. This information can be quickly processed in de facto pasture management, i.e., the prevalence and estimates of standing vegetation relayed back throughout Mongolia of deferred pasture rotation to the Regional Centers. This is the first step in systems involving separate winter, spring-fall, and balancing plant growth and grazing animal harvest summer pasture management units. The traditional of vegetation. The location of available forage and custom throughout Mongolia to graze multi-species the comparison of forage patterns between years of livestock together on the same pasture man- should facilitate the identification of rangeland agement unit was both pasture management and being adversely impacted by current levels of live- livestock management. Different kinds of livestock stock utilization. have different preferences for plant species form- ing the plant composition of different pastures. By grazing animals with different plant preferences on Pasture Management Decision the same pasture types, the majority of plants in dif- Support Systems ferent pasture communities are subjected to similar grazing intensity which prevented non-grazed plants A rangeland monitoring system without a mana- from establishing a competitive advantage over gerial component will not improve management grazed plants. Multi-species grazing also benefited of rangeland. Remotely sensed/GIS information the herder by allowing better utilization of plant must be combined with a management structure species forming pasture communities. on Mongolian grazing lands. For this reason, an effective mechanism for balancing livestock num- During the collective period, indigenous pas- bers with available forage and distributing derived ture management of this nature was supplanted by 97 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass more specialized livestock management practices of the production unit and livestock production in which the soum-managed herds consisting being a secondary production focus. often of one kind and one age class of livestock. Livestock collectives were directly involved with At the present time, there is a need and livestock management and, to a lesser extent, with opportunity to improve the capacity for pasture pasture management. Also, pasture and livestock management among government agencies respon- research institutes, as government supported insti- sible for Mongolian rangeland. As indicated above, tutions, were able to be more involved in obtain- external and internal forces are changing the kind ing and providing information on pasture and and degree of pasture and livestock management livestock production needs to assist collectives and that was traditionally applied at the livestock- state farms in managing their pasture resources. pasture interface. These include: The current inclination of herders to increase O Responsibility for livestock production and goat numbers in response to market incentives is responsibility for pasture resources are vested not a good practice of pasture or livestock man- in the same ministry, instead of two different agement. This is because the increasing grazing ministries as formerly occurred. intensity on selected plants may lead to changes O The debate between parliament and govern- in competitive relationships among plant species ment over collection of fees for rangeland use and reduce both quantity and quality of forage and the development of a Pasture Law as a available for livestock production; not because of supplement to the Basic Land Law indicates the myth that goats are inherently destructive of the high level of interest in rangeland, the rangeland. It is not good livestock management concern over pasture use, and the importance because the herder is increasing exposure to envi- of rangeland and livestock production to ronmental risk and economic risk while reducing Mongolia as a nation. effective livestock utilization of available forage O There is a prevailing perception by much of and pasture resources. the international community and among some elements of the Mongolian popula- tion that pasture degradation is widespread, Developing Pasture Management increasing, results from over-utilization by Capabilities livestock and, if left unchecked, will in the near future result in extensive desertification Pastures are subject to changes that make them of Mongolian rangeland resources. less able to meet nutrient and forage needs of ex- O By constitutional decree, rangeland will tensively managed livestock. This necessitates the remain under state control, implying that the provision of pasture management which usually state through government institutions also consists of a set of guidelines and applied practices has the responsibility to manage rangeland to that are oriented towards ensuring that productiv- ensure the availability of rangeland for future ity and other indicators of pasture condition, espe- generations of Mongolians. cially soil and vegetation attributes, are not being O Livestock numbers are increasing at the stressed beyond recovery by grazing and behavioral same time as the capabilities of indigenous activities of animals. herders and government institutions to effect proper and adequate pasture management Good livestock management does not directly are declining. correlate with good pasture management. De- pending on the perception of the pasture user as to what constitutes the primary level of produc- Concerns of Pasture Management tion (i.e., pastures or livestock) the level of applied pasture management can vary from little, if any, The three components of applied pasture man- to pasture management being the primary focus agement in Mongolia are monitoring, planning, 98 Annex G. Monitoring of Mongolian Rangeland and utilization of information. In the context of herder production unit, and the actual rangeland Mongolian rangeland and extensive livestock pro- utilized for livestock production. A large amount duction, monitoring means establishing a program of complex and interrelated information is needed employing suitable methodology and the tools to adequately monitor and manage rangeland at necessary to monitor change in pasture condition this level. over time. That means measuring site indicators such as plant species composition and productiv- In the Mongolian traditional livestock pro- ity to determine if ecological condition of pasture duction system, and even to some degree in the communities is being maintained or improved in collective livestock production system, herders accord with established goals under current levels intuitively acquired and processed the information of use. It also means monitoring to measure and needed to make livestock production decisions evaluate livestock utilization to determine if ad- that enhanced their access to the supply of for- justments are needed in the planned use of pasture age produced on pastures. During the transition resources. period, the influx of herders without the intuitive knowledge base about pasture management and Planning means to effectively plan the use of the impact of new incentives originating from the local rangeland ensuring impacts are not irrevers- market economy has changed and diminished the ible within management timeframes. It also means capacity to manage pasture. Accordingly, a new having an awareness of (a) the capacity of pasture form of pasture management is needed to ensure to support livestock production activities; (b) the that the capacity of rangeland to produce forage impact of livestock production activities, espe- is not diminished by new social and economic cially animal grazing impacts on plant species and considerations affecting livestock production. soils that determine plant communities, livestock behavior and needs; and (c) the capacity of herders A new concept and tool to enhance pasture to manage livestock in accord with the limitations management is the pasture-based Decision Sup- and advantages of the set of pasture resources ac- port Systems (DSS). Pasture DSS allow resource cessible to the herder production unit. information to be organized in a format that aids managers in selecting pasture management strate- Utilization of information derived from gies, designing and implementing sustainable live- monitoring and planning means not only using stock production alternatives, and supporting the that information to develop new plans of pasture rehabilitation of degraded pasture. It can be used management or to make adjustments to current to assist the selection of alternatives for livestock plans at local administrative levels, it also means production and grazing management systems that passing the information on in a timely manner to maintain or enhance use of pasture forage supplies several categories of institutions that are interested while maintaining or improving the economic vi- in information on pasture and livestock. ability of the livestock production enterprise. A DSS should have the capability to inven- Pasture Management Utilizing Decision tory and create informational databases about Support Systems physical and biological resources (land, climate, vegetation, water, etc.); distribution of produc- Although information obtained by monitoring tion resources (livestock, wildlife, and crops); pasture conditions and assessing management is and social, economic and technical coefficients of useful at all levels and among all Mongolian insti- production (cost, income, markets, and human tutions involved in pasture management, actual needs). Constraints or opportunities present in the monitoring and planning of rangeland use and production environment can be used to build in- development of pasture management plans should formation databases for the system. Management occur at the interface between government admin- alternatives that minimize the impacts of grazing istration of rangeland (i.e., the soum and bag), the by livestock can be identified. 99 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass A DSS should be used to improve capabilities Administrative units, which are linked to of the resource manager to develop ecologically a Resource Management Planning System, are based management systems and make appropriate aimag, soum, and bag. User defined units are decisions about stocking rate. A DSS technology Pasture Management Units and Pasture Response provides a suitable format for developing resource Units. The number of these units is variable, management plans for ecological management of depending on terrain, topography and associated grazed ecosystems. Using DSS technology allows vegetation and soils interacting with climate. Pas- resource managers to record and analyze infor- ture Management Units, which represent seasonal mation obtained from monitoring in a timely use areas, and Pasture Response Units, which manner to determine the ecological and economic represent areas of separate pasture communities, impacts of introducing selected grazing and im- influence the kind and amount of use possible by provement practices. A DSS is a tool that can be grazing animals. They are the key identifiers for a used by rangeland administrative staff at different database management system. levels to assist herder groups to plan livestock use of rangeland. Pasture Resource Areas Rangeland Management System The Pasture Resource Area defines the point at which markets, government decision-making staff, A critical element of rangeland management in livestock production decisions by herder groups, and Mongolia is determining how resource data will use of grazing land ecosystems intersect. The Pasture be identified, both in the field and subsequently Resource Area is also the basis for relating resource as databases in the database management system. use and livestock management to specific Pasture Unless all potential users agree on the "what, Management Units and Pasture Response Units. where, and when" of data to be collected; collec- Pasture Response Units are the primary land units tion methods; and nomenclature used to identify for monitoring and evaluating pasture condition. databases constructed from the field information, the database management system will be subject to inter-institutional discord that delays or defeats Pasture Management Units the intended purpose of the database system (i.e., a tool that allows better management of grazing Pasture Management Units are areas of land with land resources). distinct boundaries that are managed separately from other types of Pasture Management Units Key elements of the database to be identified (i.e., fields, paddocks, pastures, seasonal use are: areas, etc.). Generally, seasonally used pastures are Pasture Management Units. In the current O Administrative and resource use unit that Mongolian extensive livestock production system, collected data will represent (i.e., national, terrain features, elevation along with slope and aimag, soum, or bag) aspect, vegetation communities, and availability O Ecological unit that collected data will repre- and location of water are among the major factors sent (plants, soils, plant communities, vegeta- determining the type and number of Pasture Man- tion types, eco-regions, etc.) agement Units in a Pasture Resource Area. O Resources for which databases will be con- structed (soils, vegetation, livestock, climate, etc.) and, Pasture Response Units O Institutions and personnel that will be re- sponsible for constructing, maintaining, and Pasture Response Unit is an area of land that can be using databases for monitoring, planning and separated from other areas within the same Pasture formulating policies. Management Unit because of different inherent 100 Annex G. Monitoring of Mongolian Rangeland production potential, current ecological condition, point. Information collected at the site should response potential, planned treatment, or limitation consist of site coordinates, (i.e., latitude and to livestock use (i.e., the distribution constraints). longitude), aspect, slope, slope position, elevation The primary distinguishing characteristics of a Pas- and general appearance of the site relative to plant ture Response Unit are the soils and associated plant community and any obvious grazing caused impact community. Physical characteristics of the landscape on ecological condition. Information collected are major long-term influences on soil develop- from each plot, which has an area of 0.5 square- ment and the plant community that occupies a meter on grass steppe sites and 1 square-meter on Pasture Response Unit. Because these characteristics shrub steppe sites, includes (a) plant species com- are repeatable throughout a Pasture Management position in the plot; (b) basal cover (%) of grasses, Unit, the same Pasture Response Unit may occur at forbs, and semi-shrubs, and density of shrubs; and several different times in the same or other Pasture (c) yield (kg/ha) of standing crop biomass. Management Unit and Resource Area. Database parameters collected from Pasture Response Units are used to describe environmental Rangeland Assessment conditions and ecological relationships prevailing in Pasture Management Areas as follows: Resource Area Assessment O Allows a preliminary identification of plant The GIS should be used to determine spatial area communities and soils comprising the of the major plant community types comprising resource response units of resource areas and rangeland. Measurement of three categories of resource management units in each of the spatial area in each soum needs to be defined. The four case studies; three categories of spatial area are (a) vegetation O Identifies main plant species in the resource communities, (b) land form, and (c) land use. Bag management area, plant communities dur- and Resource Areas should be spatially defined as ing fall, winter, and early spring and which sub-units on the soum maps. This information is comprise available standing crop for grazing subsequently digitized into a GIS to determine area livestock during winter and early spring; measurements of Pasture Response Units, Pasture O Provides information on initiation of plant Management Units, and Pasture Resource Areas. growth of species comprising vegetation of different Pasture Response Units; A preliminary evaluation of Pasture Response O Allows an estimate of total biomass (kg/ha) Units comprising Pasture Resource Areas and available in each plant community at the Pasture Management Units should be made. Fixed end of the winter grazing period and prior to points are selected to identify Pasture Response initiation of new growth forage during late Units, evaluate ecological conditions, and measure spring and early summer; attributes of Pasture Response Units. The establish- O Allows an estimate to be made of the supply ment of fixed sites in Pasture Response Units had of forage available in the Resource Area dur- several purposes: (a) allowing resource response ing the critical spring season to meet intake units comprising forage resources of case study areas and nutrient needs of livestock using the to be adequately sampled, (b) allowing sites to be Pasture Management Unit; relocated and resampled, (c) initiating a pasture O Initiates acquiring the necessary information to monitoring system that can be maintained, and (d) construct grazing land management databases. providing the model for establishing pasture data- bases for monitoring and management of resources. Spatial Analysis of Resource Areas Each fixed site consists of a randomly located central point fixed by GPS and 3 plots located 20 Vegetation, land form and land use maps should paces at 0, 120 and 240 degrees from the central be digitized and entered into a GIS to enable area 101 Livestock and Wildlife in the Southern Gobi Region, with Special Attention to Wild Ass measurements and spatial analysis of pasture com- (a) ecological databases that describe Pasture Re- munities in the study areas. Vegetation, land form, sponse Units by plant species, animal preference and land use maps are overlaid to define Pasture for plants species, plant community composition Management Units and Pasture Response Units in and structure, and yield of forage standing crop; the study areas. (b) Pasture Management Unit databases com- prised of Pasture Response Units in each Resource Area; (c) animal databases that describe livestock Database Construction using the Pasture Management Unit; and (d) socio-economic factors that affect decision- Information collected during field visits is ana- making by farm/ranch production units relative lyzed by the ecological team and entered into to livestock use strategies and livestock produc- spreadsheet databases describing the pasture, tion. The databases are interactively analyzed to livestock, and user attributes of the rangeland determine proper stocking rate of livestock for Resource Areas. The databases finalized are each Resource Area. 102 References Adiya, Y., and G. Dovchindorj. 2005. "Prelimi- Batima, P., L. Natsagdorj, P. Glombuudev, and nary Results of a Population and Ecology B. Erdenetsetseg. 2005. Observed Climate Study of Wild Bactrian Camels (Camelus Change in Mongolia. AIACC Working Paper bactrianus)." 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