87935 NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES Address Natural Disasters and Climate Change Tunis Bouregreg Valley Casablanca Alexandria Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Summary of the Regional Study June 2011 A STUDY BUILT ON BROAD BACKING, PARTICIPATION The study has been directed by Anthony G. Bigio, meteorological agency, carried out the detailed cli- Senior Urban Specialist and Lead Author for the mate down-scaling models, in consultation with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a Tunisian and Egyptian meteorological agencies. World Bank team comprising Stephane Hallegatte, Lead Climate Change Specialist, Salim Rouhana, Co-financing partners include the Global Facility for Junior Professional Officer, Asmita Tiwari and Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Osama Hamad, Disaster Risk Management Special- the Norwegian Trust Fund Private Sector and ists, and Tim Carrington, communications adviser. Infrastructure (NTF-PSI) and the Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Develop- The study is one of the foundational programs of the ment (TFESSD), administered by the World Bank. Marseille Center for Mediterranean Integration (CMI). Created in 2009, the CMI is a regional knowl- Partners generously providing specific support edge and learning platform supporting evidence- include the European Space Agency, which pro- based public policy choice. Its urban programs sup- vided earth observation via the service companies port dialogue, new knowledge and its use among the Altamira and TRE, and the Arab Academy of Sci- public and decision-makers. The study will provide ence, Technology and Maritime Transportation, the basis for future work under the programs. which has collaborated in the Alexandria urban risk assessment. The study benefitted from peer-reviews by the follow- ing specialists from the World Bank and the Global Within the three participating countries, institutional Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery support and technical contributions of the relevant (GFDRR): Alex Bakalian, Henrike Brecht, Isabelle agencies was critical to carrying out the research and Forge, Jaafar Friaa, Francis Ghesquière, Philippe Huc, defining the policy responses. Alex Kremer, Michel Matera, and Edward Tschan. Overall guidance was provided by Anna Bjerde, Urban In Egypt the Environmental Affairs Agency (Coastal and Social Development Sector Manager in the Mid- Zone Management Department), alongside the Al- dle East and North Africa region of the World Bank. exandria Governorate, has provided support for the study. The study was carried out by a consortium of French consulting companies headed by Egis-BCEOM In Morocco, the State Secretary for Water and the International, directed by Denis Carra, and including Environment, the Wilaya of Greater Casablanca, and IAU-RIF and BRGM. Its project team was led by Yves the Agency for the Development of the Bouregreg Ennesser, and comprised Michel Abientz, François Valley played an equivalent role. Beauchain, François Bertone, Ion Besteliu, Domi- nique Cataliotti, Jean-Michel Cathala, Guillaume In Tunisia, such support came from the Ministry of Dulac, Fabrizio Ferrucci, Eric Huybrechts, Azzedine Environment and Sustainable Development (Environ- Motia, Mirelle Raymond, Victor Said, Monique Ter- ment and Quality-of-Life Department), the Ministry of rier, Mohsen Tounsi, Nadra Tounsi, Terry Winter Development and International Cooperation (Infra- andFranck Zangelmi. Méteo-Maroc, the national structures Department), and the Municipality of Tunis. OVERVIEW: URBAN COASTAL RISKS ON THE RISE North Africa’s coastal cities, long benefitting from tions to natural disasters, such as floods and storm their ready access to commerce and culture, also face surges, earthquakes and tsunamis, as well as to the distinct vulnerabilities due to their location. Natural increasingly frequent weather extremes associated hazards and extreme weather patterns impose risks with climate change. The project, which has taken on coastal areas that inland areas seldom encoun- place from June 2009 to June 2011, has provided tools ter. North Africa’s increasingly populous cities face for evaluating the risks, costing out potential losses, tangible risks today, but these will be amplified as and moving toward specific reforms and investments the impacts of global climate change further manifest designed to adapt the cities to a changing climate and themselves over the decades to come. increase their resilience to natural hazards. To better understand both the risks that these cities face by the 2030 time horizon, and to help prepare Rise in Natural Disasters Already in the required adaptive responses, the World Bank has Evidence conducted a regional study focused on three cities critical to the region’s economic, social and political Already, the southern Mediterranean and Middle life: Alexandria, Casablanca and Tunis. The study also East have seen a measurable rise in natural disasters. examined the Bouregreg Valley between Rabat and From an average of three natural disasters a year in Salé in Morocco, an area which is undergoing large- 1980, the region experienced a steady increase to an scale urban development and is slated for further average of more than 15 in 2006. All told, the region growth in the next decade. was been hit by 276 disasters in this 25-year time period, of which 120 occurred in the last five years. By The study, “Climate Change Adaptation and Natu- any measure, the risks associated with natural catas- ral Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of trophes are on the rise, also on account of increasing North Africa,” analyzed the exposure of all four loca- population and assets exposure. Urban Risks Increase Over Time in All Urban Locations under the Study Urban Risks Alexandria Tunis Casablanca Bouregreg Valley Horizon Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Seismicity/ground instability Tsunami/Marine submersion Coastal Erosion Flooding Water Scarcity Very High High Medium Low Very Low NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 1 2 | OVERVIEW: URBAN COASTAL RISKS ON THE RISE In North Africa’s coastal cities, urban managers, busi- lapsed on a group of workers after the rains damaged nesses and households have had to cope with numer- the structure. ous costly and destructive episodes of extreme weather. For Tunis, the scope of natural disaster risks hit home Recent extreme weather events in September, 2003, when a particularly severe storm swept the coastal city. In a 24-hour period, Tunis took On November 30, 2010, Casablanca was deluged by in about five times the volume of rain as typically fell a record 18 centimeters of rain overnight— equal to in the entire month of September. The catastrophe about six months of rainfall under normal patterns. damaged buildings, cost lives, and overwhelmed the The resulting floods forced the shutdown of various limited drainage systems of the city. Following the facilities, including the international airport, busi- disaster, the Tunis authorities analyzed weak points nesses and schools throughout the city. Companies in urban structures and initiated studies and invest- lost inventories. Streets became swirling rivers, ments to help the city withstand similar catastrophes with cars mostly submerged, and citizens struggling in the future. through waist-high water to reach places of security. More than 2,500 families had to be accommodated in various public structures. After the disaster, city Risks Likely to Increase Over Time councilors called for an urgent review of infrastruc- tures, services, and institutional systems implicated Two trends confirm that the cities will be increasingly in emergency response. vulnerable to flooding and other natural disasters over the next two decades: On December 10–12, 2010, heavy rains, storm surges and strong winds hit Alexandria, causing the partial s Climate change, whose future magnitude and collapse of 28 buildings, with 18 people dying in the impacts necessarily remain somewhat uncertain, catastrophe and dozens more injured. Streets were adds to the frequency and intensity of extreme inundated, harbor activities suspended. A factory col- weather events, so that historical patterns no longer function as indicators of future weather- related risks. According to the International 30 Panel on Climate Change, North Africa is the second most vulnerable area in the world to 25 emerging climate-related risks. 20 s Rapid urban population growth through- 15 out the Middle East and North Africa raises the stakes by increasing the potential losses from 10 natural disasters and climate-related damages. 5 Some 60 million people inhabited the region’s coastal cities in 2010, but the number is expect- 0 ed to swell to 100 million in 2030, placing more 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 2004 2006 1980 1982 1996 1998 2000 2002 people, livelihoods and structures at risk. Alexan- Year dria, Casablanca and Tunis—home to about ten Number of disasters 3 per. Mov. Avg. million people in 2010—can expect a combined Natural disasters a ecting Middle Eastern(number of disasters) and North African countries population of around 15 million in 2030. The have increased signi cantly since 1980. (Source: EMDAT) Bouregreg Valley anticipates an influx of up to 140,000 people in an area that has remained virtually uninhabited for centuries. NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 3 500 Estimates of The higher seas would compound storm surges, Instrumental record Projections of the past the future increasing the risks for marine inundation and coastal 400 erosion. 300 Sea level change (mm) 200 The report has identified specific risks within each of 100 the four urban areas, and proposed adaptive actions that would mitigate potential damages and losses. 0 Risks have been quantified, along with the costs of –100 adaptive and climate-resilient actions, so that plan- –200 ners can calculate the costs and benefits associated 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 with the particular courses of action recommended. Year Although the study focuses on four specific locations only, the analytical processes it employs are relevant Projections for the 21st century carry uncertainty, but even at the low to many other coastal cities in the region. end of the range, sea level rise will compound current risks for North African coastal cities. (Source: WRI) Economic valuations The study found that over the 2010–2030 period, the Urban Risk Assessments three cities each face potential cumulative losses of well over $1 billion from the risks, which include The study took into account climate change projec- floods, earthquakes, coastal erosion, ground instabil- tions, urbanization and demographic shifts, and ity, marine inundation, tsunamis and water scarcity. examined coastlines, structures, and neighborhoods Meanwhile, the planned development of Morocco’s that will face increasing risks. Looking at specific Bouregreg Valley could place communities, houses threats, such as flooding or coastal erosion, the study and industries at risk—unless the project follows a team found that most risks increase over the 2010– path of climate-smart development. 2030 period. Sea level rise—a critical climate-change risk for coastal cities—is an important unknown but The bulk of the risks are related to natural disasters is assumed in the study to be 20 cm by the year 2030. to which the coastal cities are already vulnerable, 92 86 hours 84 76 60 hours 64 hours 67 59 50 Days 42 34 25 17 8 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 Heat waves are becoming longer lasting, with higher peak temperatures, as this record for Tunis shows, increasing impacts on public health, including more respiratory diseases. 4 | OVERVIEW: URBAN COASTAL RISKS ON THE RISE but by 2030, about 20% of the potential losses Lessening the Risk: Overlapping Spheres of Action would be attributable to various impacts of climate change. Given that by all scientific accounts climate change manifestations are going to increase signifi- cantly by mid-century and further, it is very likely Urban Planning that a much greater percentage of losses will be attributed to climate change for the 2050 or 2070 scenarios. Infrastructure Institutional Acting to Make Cities Resilient, Adapted to Climate Change The study’s first phase focused on future climate pro- jections, probabilistic risk assessments, and hazard and exposure measurements, leading to the formula- provide climate-appropriate solutions for future tion of current and future urban risk assessments. The urban expansions. second phase has generated Adaptation and Resil- ience Action Plans that would make all three cities, s Institutions will need to function at higher and the Bouregreg Valley, more resilient to natural levels of efficiency and coordination to prevent disasters and better adapted climate change impacts. and lessen damages, with improved early warn- ing systems, effective communications, and clear Lessening the risks requires actions in three overlap- lines of responsibility. ping spheres: urban planning initiatives; institutional reforms and capacity building; and strengthening s Urban infrastructure such as coastal defenses infrastructure. and drainage systems will require upgrading and reinforcement. s Urban design plans will have to take into account the risks of placing communities or These three areas of adaptation and resilience are of- enterprises in low-lying and risk-prone areas, and ten overlapping and mutually reinforcing, and have to 92 Lutte contre les submersions marines (TM3) – Lute contre les zone de Mohammedia submersions marines (TM3): 192 MDH zones hors Mohammedia Système d’alerte et de prévention 229 MDH Inondations: mesures 3,132 MDH collectives 14 Inondations: mesures à la parcelle 5,435 MDH Mesures anti-érosion: 13 1,399 MDH TM1/S1 283 MDH Mesures anti-érosion: 3 TM1/S1 2 261 MDH 1 0 Adaptation cost curves, like this one for Casablanca, allow cities to weigh the bene ts of measures proposed within the action plans. The vertical column shows the ratio of bene ts-to-costs for investments in speci c processes, institutions, and infrastructures. The horizontal red line shows the break-even point, above which bene ts, under current conditions, outweigh costs. NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 5 be managed and implemented simultaneously. Action plans drawn up in partnership with local officials in the three countries have set the foundation for policy responses and investments to limit current and future urban vulnerability. Economic evalu- ations can assist decision- makers in weighing the costs and benefits of particular preventive actions, after fac- toring in the potential losses in taking no actions. Tools for Reducing Uncertainties Improved early warning systems help coastal cities lower potential damages from sea surges, storms Les installations peuvent être fixes ou mobiles, déployées dans les lieux sensibles ou transportables et and tsunamis. installées Systems sur des zonesof “smart buoys” variables lors deslinked to satellites, such as this one proposed for Alexandria, alertes. On this basis the study has o er real-time surveillance and greater preparedness. generated “adaptation cost curves” which rank the cost effectiveness of each remedial measure proposed. Many of such measures pass the reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next two cost-benefit test and are confirmed to be economi- decades. The most effective responses, therefore, take cally effective and promise to deliver high returns the form of so-called “no-regret” actions, which are in terms of risk reduction. In particular, all “soft” sensible and cost-effective under a variety of future measures, such as urban planning and strengthen- climate scenarios. Of course, Adaptation and Resil- ing the institutional preparedness, offer a high return ience Action Plans should be updated periodically to on investment. Some of the infrastructure measures respond to further findings and evolving scenarios. proposed turn out to be more costly than the dam- ages that would be off-set, but can still be justified in Moving Towards Implementation terms of the intangible values of some urban loca- tions, for instance on heritage grounds. With the study completed, the tasks ahead involve creating political consensus and mobilizing financial The study reduces the scope of uncertainty facing de- resources for the most critical planning and policy cision-makers with regard to future climate and urban initiatives and investments, so that these cities, which risks, but it cannot eliminate it entirely, given that the have historically contributed so profoundly to the local impacts of climate change will be greatly affect- identity of the region, may be better prepared to face ed by the scope of the worldwide mitigation measures the challenges of the future. ALEXANDRIA STEERING URBAN GROWTH AWAY FROM AREAS AT RISK The ancient city of Alexandria is home to a popula- Patterns of Urban Growth tion of 4.1 million, with an expectation of 6.8 million inhabitants by the year 2030, a surge of 65%. The It is expected that Alexandria’s expansion will tend original city, built by Alexander the Great in 331 BC, to take place westward, along the Al-Bouhayra Lake, has grown enormously over the centuries with steady with further urban sprawl towards the south. Poorer expansions along its water front. From the coastal communities are likely to increase along certain village of Abu Quir in the northeast to the village of shoreline areas, in the Abu Quir depression and near El-Deir in the southwest, the Alexandria agglomera- the Maryut Lake. Other areas likely to house future tion consists mainly of high-density settlements population growth are in low-lying spaces subject to along a partially elevated ridge facing the sea, backed ground subsidence and increasing climate-related by low-lying rural areas containing a number of lakes risks. Expansion south of the Al Montaza and Sharq and wetlands. Many of these areas fall below sea level areas is likely to increase the number of people and and are also highly vulnerable to flooding, which is value of structures exposed to seismic and flooding controlled by pumping stations ejecting water into risks. the Mediterranean Sea. The city’s recent reconstruction of its sea-front road- way in the form of a ten-lane coastal highway has intensified already evident patterns of coastal ero- sion and storm surges, by steepening of the slope of the seabed. As a result of future sea-level rise, such Urban Risks Increase Over Time in All Urban Locations events are likely to have further impact into the city’s under the Study built front, exposing new areas to risk. Urban Risks Alexandria Horizon Current 2030 Seismicity/ground instability/ Key Risks Tsunami/Marine submersion Coastal Erosion One element of Alexandria’s critical exposure to risks are its informal settlements, which currently house Flooding one third of the city’s total population, and which Water Scarcity are likely to increase with population growth. More High Medium Low NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 7 people are expected to crowd into deteriorating reaches to the Cabinet level, with interactions through structures in the old parts of the city, with others set- the key ministries. The approach contributes to rela- tling into surrounding wetlands and other vulnerable, tive clarity with respect to which agencies are respon- low-lying areas. With greater urbanization, the overall sible for which tasks. ground area will become increasingly impermeable, adding to runoff and drainage problems. The Information and Decision Support Center plays a key coordinating role, and since 2000, an entity for Satellite images provided by the European Space Crisis and Emergency Management Affairs provides Agency show that as much as 9% of the measured a disaster response command structure. However, ground points in the Alexandria agglomeration are the study found that the structure emphasizes com- subject to significant land subsidence. The phenom- mand and control aspects of disaster response, but enon is particularly notable along the northern border underplays communication and early warning ca- of Lake Maryut and between the Gharb district and pacities and a decentralized response capacity. For Abu Quir, making these areas more vulnerable to instance, the 2010 Sinai flash floods event exposed ground instability. Egypt’s shortcomings in forecasting and early warn- ing systems, especially vulnerable when a series of Meteorological data collected over the past 30 years weather-related events follow one another in a short show trends of increasing heat waves and more time period. instances of torrential rainfall. As was evident in the December 2010 disaster, storm surges not only sub- merge stretches of the coastline, but reach low-lying Urban Risk Assessment areas located well in from the coast. The study reached the following assessments cover- Since the 1990s Egypt has tasked various central co- ing specific urban risks for Alexandria, as measured in ordination entities with managing disaster response 2010 and forecasted for 2030: and risk management, establishing a structure that Walkway 10 m d Roa Vertical Wall Old New Corniche Road 28–45 m Slop e 1– 2 Concrete Blocks (10 ton) Sand- ll MSL Sand Geo-textile gravel lter Quarrystones, 0.3–0.8 ton Carbonate ridge Original Seabed Alexandria’s recently constructed corniche road, built over the sea, remains vulnerable to storm surges on account of the steeper slope of the seabed—despite the addition of parallel breakwater structures. (Source: Frihy et al.) 8 | ALEXANDRIA: STEERING URBAN GROWTH AWAY FROM AREAS AT RISK This multi-risk map of Alexandria highlights critical vulnerabilities. The large shaded area indicates low-lying, ood-prone lands; red represents high-density residential areas; yellow shows slums and informal settlements; blue shows areas most subject to marine submersion. The diagonal line o the coast represents di erent degrees of coastal erosion risk. s Flooding: Vulnerabilities are evident in recently s Tsunami and marine submersion: Seafront urbanized areas that are below sea level, includ- buildings along the densely urbanized coastline ing an area between the hydro-dome and Abu are exposed to structural damages, while low-ly- Quir, at the edge of the former Abu Quir lagoon, ing areas risk marine submersion. Coastal areas and in the Sharq and Al Montaza districts. With- near Abu Quir are directly threatened by marine out careful planning for the use of areas below submersion, with specific worries that the 18th sea-level, informal settlements will multiply, and century Mohammed Ali sea wall could rupture in with more frequent and more intense extreme case of a major earthquake or tsunami, putting rainfalls, flooding will escalate to a medium risk areas below sea-level at risk of inundation. With in 2030 from a low risk in 2010. increased settlement of the shoreline, along with a likely expansion of residential developments s Seismic threats and ground instability: over current natural areas, such threats rise to Northern Egypt faces moderate earthquake and the high-risk category by 2030, up from a me- seismic risks. However, subsidence combined dium risk in 2010. with increasing informal settlements raise the potential losses from structural damage, increas- s Coastal erosion: Over time, Alexandria’s ing the rating to a medium risk in 2030 from a beaches have been receding, with increasing low risk in 2010. risk of structural damage to shoreline build- ings. There are significant erosion risks between El Dekhiela Harbor and the western harbor of NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 9 Alexandria, and at Abu Quir. With the higher sea levels associated with climate change, coastal For Alexandria, the cumulative potential damage erosion and the beaches retreat are likely to ac- from natural disasters and climate change impacts celerate. As a result, erosion rises to a high-risk is estimated to be $1.72 billion in Net Present category in 2030, from a medium-risk in 2010. Value for the period 2010–2030. An estimated 18% of that total is attributable to climate change s Water resources scarcity: With Egypt’s impacts alone. growing population and a constantly increasing industrial demand for limited Nile water, wa- ter scarcity problems are likely to occur. Water demand surged by 50% over the past decade, and with nearly half of Egypt’s industrial activity Adaptation and Resilience Responses centered in Alexandria, urban demand for limited water resources is certain to grow. Meanwhile, There is much that decision-makers can do to protect local aquifers are becoming exhausted and are the well-being of the city’s population and lessen the subject to salinization. Unmediated competition potential harms to the economy of natural disasters for Nile resources with upstream countries could and climate change. Broadly, the study encourages exacerbate shortages, so that by 2030, the city’s Egyptian policymakers to shift from mainly respond- current supply from the Nile could become insuf- ing to natural disasters and weather events after they ficient, and water resources scarcity is rated as a occur to focusing on preventive actions to limit the high risk in the future from a low risk today. damage natural disaster might cause and to prepar- Alexandria’s building stock mostly consists of older and low-quality structures vulnerable to natural disasters, represented by red and magenta in the map. Patterns of high-density occupancy in these areas multiply the vulnerabilities. (Source: GOPP) 10 | ALEXANDRIA: STEERING URBAN GROWTH AWAY FROM AREAS AT RISK ing for the progressive impacts of climate change. The emerges as critical. For example, a system of “smart study also provides tools for pricing the costs of vari- buoys” along the coastline could help generate timely ous actions, comparing these costs to damages that data that could help protect people and property might occur if no adaptive actions are taken. from coastal storm surges. Improved communication among agencies involved in disaster prevention and Urban Planning response could strengthen timeliness and coordina- tion, leading to more robust responses. Adequate urban planning and land-use policies will be critical to limiting the Alexandria’s exposure to Infrastructure Investments risks, damages and losses. The 2030 Greater Alex- andria Master Plan, currently being prepared, is an Investments in making existing structures more resil- excellent opportunity to incorporate the results of the ient would benefit coastal marine defenses. Some key study’s urban risk assessment, and to re-orient the urban infrastructures and buildings, along with water city’s future expansion away from the areas identified supply and drainage systems, could be made more as most at risk. The Master Plan should also direct robust and better able to withstand the damages that future urban growth, define city limits, and establish can occur in storms such as the one that hit Alexan- a land-use program with rules for densities, building dria in 2010. Like other cities, Alexandria can lower heights and open space ratios taking into account flood-related risks by taking steps to improve control future climate scenarios. of runoff and discharge sources, and routine main- tenance of the sewage system all would lower risks Institutional Preparedness during flooding periods. In addition, areas slated for development can be sited and prepared to minimize Upgrading early warning systems covering all types the vulnerability. Investment in special equipment— of disasters emerges as a particularly sound invest- such as mobile water pumps—can help with drainage ment. Improved management of coastal areas also problems during flooding. CASABLANCA CONFRONTING FLOODING, COASTAL EROSION AND MARINE SUBMERSION Casablanca is home to 3.3 million people, with Morocco has experienced climatic shifts in recent another 300,000 in nearby rural areas. In the period years, including warmer average temperatures and 1994–2004, the population surged by more than half overall decreased yearly rainfall. Projections for 2030 a million. According to estimates based on historical envision warming for Casablanca of up to 1.3 degrees patterns, the population of Greater Casablanca will centigrade, with annual rainfall accumulation decreas- swell by 55% to 5.1 million by 2030. ing by 6% to 20%. However, it is also expected that the warmer temperatures and lower levels of annual rain- fall will be accompanied by more frequent and more Patterns of Urban Growth intense episodes of extreme precipitation, further overwhelming the already stressed urban drainage Economic expansion and population growth will systems. continue to fuel a sharp rise in the number of house- holds. As a result, the urban area is expected to ex- The town of Mohammedia, subject to devastating pand by as much as 1,000 hectares a year. Significant floods in 2002, requires special attention. An analysis urban development is also expected to occur along the Casablanca waterfront and in low-lying areas that are vulnerable to sea storm surges and flooding. Urban Risks Increase Over Time in All Urban Locations Key Risks under the Study Urban Risks Casablanca Casablanca is particularly vulnerable to flooding, Horizon Current 2030 coastal erosion and marine inundation, and is expe- riencing significant pressures linked to rapid urban Seismicity/ground instability/ growth. The city also houses many precarious struc- Tsunami/Marine submersion tures, some older and poorly maintained, some newer Coastal Erosion and poorly constructed. A number of the slums and Flooding densely populated neighborhoods are located in low- Water Scarcity lying neighborhoods, and have encroached on areas legally protected for water catchment. High Medium Low Very Low 12 | CASABLANCA: CONFRONTING FLOODING, COASTAL EROSION AND MARINE SUBMERSION of the vulnerabilities and structural fragilities under- s Flooding: Casablanca has been regularly dis- scored the need for improved drainage facilities and rupted by floods, given its current level of protec- greater physical protection against sea surges. tion, limited to a level of rainfall recurring every five years. This is due to insufficient city-wide Morocco’s Disaster Risk Management has become drainage systems and the informal urbanization significantly more effective as a result of changes of catchment areas. The study has identified spe- carried out since early 2009. A restructured General cific areas of Greater Casablanca that are particu- Directorate of Civil Defense and a new Supervision larly vulnerable to periodic flooding: slums and & Coordination Committee have generated positive structures built with cheap or inferior materials reviews from a mix of stakeholders. Improved disas- are of particular concern. Flooding is considered ter preparedness and more accurate warnings from a high risk in 2010, and will remain high for the the Department of Meteorology, Morocco enabled 2030 scenario. a much improved response to torrential rains and flooding between December 2009 and March 2010. s Tsunamis and marine submersion: For Casablanca, the risks posed by tsunamis and marine submersion are considered medium, Urban Risk Assessment given the historical record of relatively recent tsunamic events, and are expected to remain so Following are the key results of the risk assessments by 2030. Marine submersion risk is significant for for Casablanca, as measured in 2010 and forecasted for specific segments of the coastline, in particular 2030: for Mohammedia, where storm surges can cause Areas of substandard dwellings, indicated by red, constitute 28% of all housing stock, with 11% categorized as slums. These extend across Greater Casablanca, but are concentrated in the northeast outskirts. Black squares (not drawn to scale) indicate the size of slum areas. NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 13 Flood-prone areas, indicated by the dark blue, are sprinkled throughout residential, industrial and mixed-used parts of Greater Casablanca. The most critical areas are the town of Mohammedia and the course of the Oued Bouskoura cutting across the city to the harbor. Already planned infrastructure improvements are expected to reduce exposure to ooding. the inflow of sea-water inland with severe con- s Water resources scarcity: Water insecurity, sequences for the productive and administrative ranked as a low risk in 2010, would become a me- center of the city. Storms, intensified by higher dium risk by 2030, assuming current estimates sea levels, will be likely to damage the city’s of population and industrial growth. This is in sea-front and put more areas at risk of marine relation to the overall decrease in rainfall which submersion. The low-lying areas near the outlets the country is expecting, with the consequent of the main ephemeral streams of Mehla and decrease in resource and additional pressure Nfifich face distinct risks. over the apportioning of water for urban and rural usages. s Coastal erosion: A ten-kilometer coastal seg- ment stretching between the eastern end of Casablanca and the Mohammedia power The potential aggregate economic losses for the station now faces a strong risk of erosion, with 2010–2030 period due to natural disasters and another thirty to forty kilometers of coastline impacts of climate change in Casablanca would segments also considered at risk. Expected have a Net Present Value of $1.39 billion, the bulk sea level rise intensifies such vulnerabilities of which is associated to flooding. Such losses in the future. The risks of coastal erosion will would be commensurate to losing 7% of the gross increase, with sand beaches expected to retreat domestic product of Greater Casablanca. Potential by as much as 15 meters by 2030. Erosion risk is economic losses attributable to climate change ranked as high risk today as well as for the 2030 impacts would represent an estimated 18% of the scenario. total. 14 | CASABLANCA: CONFRONTING FLOODING, COASTAL EROSION AND MARINE SUBMERSION All along the Casablanca seaboard, low-lying areas such as the town of Mohammedia, are subject to high marine submersion risks. Blue areas indicate present risks, red areas, additional exposures coming on by 2030. Adaptation and Resilience Responses to repeated flooding would undergo detailed plans to protect key structures and buildings. It is expected The study calls for an integrated approach for the de- that slums would eventually be redeveloped under tailed land use planning and urban design of Casablan- the national slum up-grading program, and that other ca’s neighborhoods, reconciling the expected growth overcrowded areas would undergo rehabilitation. of population and economic activities with environ- mental considerations. This approach has already been Institutional Preparedness embraced by the 2030 Master Plan which was recently approved, and now needs to be applied in greater detail Moroccan institutions can take specific actions to as the zoning plans are being designed. Climate-related become more effective in responding to natural vulnerabilities and natural risks have to be factored in disasters. Risk factors are already incorporated in when the city considers potential uses of vacant land or the organizational and regulatory framework, but the identifies areas for new housing construction. Flood- country would benefit from further steps to remove prone areas should be carefully screened to avoid overlapping ministerial functions, to simplify opera- worsening inundation and drainage problems. tions, and to separate civil defense and the roles of state and local institutions. Urban Planning Casablanca also needs new information systems, The study also suggests the creation of eco-neighbor- including improved strategies to alert citizens and en- hoods to demonstrate approaches to environmentally terprises of rapidly changing weather conditions, along sustainable, climate-resilient design and construction, with plans for protecting lives and property. The study which could serve as models for new development in has strongly recommended upgraded systems for sur- Casablanca and beyond. Meanwhile, areas subjected veillance and early warning, with greater use of satellite NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 15 imagery and regular measurement of land subsidence, for accommodating runoff and drainage. A criti- temperature changes and shifts in water levels. cal flood prevention project is the construction of the drainage canal dubbed “Super Collector West”, Infrastructure Investments which has already been designed and quantified, and which would increase the flood protection of the city The studies attach special urgency to addressing to a 20-year level. This infrastructure would drain a physical vulnerabilities along the coastline, particu- number of basins that tend to overflow during heavy larly the stretch of about 40 kilometers that is already rainfall and potential floods in the western part of subject to erosion and sea storm surges. A vulnerable the city. coastal span between Mohammedia, and Casablanca, where protective dunes are considered particularly New dam structures would be necessary to assure fragile, could benefit from steps to reinforce the long-term protection of communities and property natural barriers, coupled with the managed retreat of against the sea. Casablanca should also extend the some illegal coastal housing. current programs aimed at reducing water leakages, favor water conservation, and link water storage facili- Casablanca would also benefit from improvements ties into an integrated system that would include en- in the drainage system to ensure its viability during able the use of harvested rainwater for watering green flooding crises, along with expanded infrastructure areas. TUNIS ADDRESSING MULTIPLE RISKS, ONSET OF CLIMATE CHANGE Residents of Tunis expect hot, dry summers fol- Patterns of Urban Growth lowed by mild, wet winters. But they also have come to anticipate weather extremes. Following a series a Population growth in Tunis is more modest than in damaging storms over thirty years, Tunis encountered other cities in the region, but still a significant factor in a devastating storm in 2003, with major flooding assessing future risks. The urban population of 2.25 mil- across the city, and losses amounting to hundreds of lion is expected to increase 33% to about 3 million by millions of dollars. That same year, the city experience 2030. However, the tectonics and soils of the city itself one of the most intense heat-waves on record. The present profound challenges. In downtown Tunis, land city drew up new disaster response plans and initi- subsidence leaves some buildings tilting visibly to one ated infrastructure improvements. But with climate side, and seismic risks are considerable. The coastline change, extreme episodes as occurred in 2003 are is seriously threatened by erosion, requiring reinforced expected to become more frequent, requiring a fresh beach defenses. The coastline itself is continuously look at the city’s level of preparedness. shifting despite sea defenses and beach nourishment which have been built and implemented regularly. Key Risks Topographical data shows that urbanized and indus- trial areas in the lower downtown, Rades, Ezzahra and Urban Risks Increase Over Time in All Urban Locations under the Study Hammam Lif Ouest are vulnerable to marine submer- sion under certain storm conditions. Extreme rainfall Urban Risks Tunis events could increase by 25% under widely accepted Horizon Current 2030 scenarios for climate change by 2030. Tunis could Seismicity/ground instability/ be facing the occurrence of 50- year weather events Tsunami/Marine submersion that formerly occurred once every one hundred years. Coastal Erosion Similarly, intense rains that might once have come Flooding every fifty years could arrive once every twenty in the Water Scarcity near future. The return period for less violent weather episodes would be telescoped in the same way. Very High High Medium Low NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 17 Institutional strengthening can help better manage the risks. The National Office for Civil Protection leads various agencies in the prevention and management of disasters, but the structure of this arm of govern- ment has barely changed over the decades. Past episodes of natural disasters haven’t been followed by assessments and regulatory or operational improve- ments. Cartographic information and geographical data bases remain largely absent, along with texts covering specific risks. Urban Risk Assessment Following are the key results of the risk assessments for Tunis, as measured in 2010 and forecasted for 2030: s Flooding: Floods, a recent and major problem for the city, would likely intensify, rising from a current high risk to a very high risk by 2030, despite the full implementation of the trunk drainage system upgrades under way, on ac- count of the likely 25 percent increase in extreme precipitation events, which can generate flood levels of more than one meter in certain areas of the city Certain drainage basins will face a severe risk of flooding, exacerbated by inadequate local In economically important central Tunis, subsidence indicated drainage and rapid urbanization. Meanwhile, as in red combines with ooding risks indicated in blue to multiply the city expands, new construction on hillsides potential impacts. Major storms overwhelm the center-city drainage, and in flood-prone areas could be adding to inundating streets and buildings. runoff volumes and consequent damages, unless planned in a climate-appropriate way. 15 meters by 2030. The coastline between Kalaat s Coastal erosion: Erosion, already a high risk Landalous and Raoued Beach could be severely along the Tunis shoreline in 2010, is ranked as eroded by 2030. a very high risk by 2030. The coastline of the Gulf of Tunis has been receding for half a cen- s Tsunamis and marine submersion: The tury, despite offshore protections mitigating the study assumes a global sea level rise of 20 cen- trend. In some stretches of the coastline it can timeters by 2030, which could intensify the dam- recede by as much as 10 meters a year. By 2030, age to sea barriers, raising the risk of submer- 27 kilometers of the urbanized seafront would sions for the city. By 2030, the study estimates be considered at a high risk of erosion, up from that an expanded stretch of the urban seafront 16 kilometers in 2010. Sea level rises projected would be at a high risk of submersion. Taken to- under climate change would accelerate coastal gether, the risks rise from a medium-risk category erosion, with beaches receding by as much as to high-risk by 2030. 18 | TUNIS: ADDRESSING MULTIPLE RISKS, ONSET OF CLIMATE CHANGE s Earthquake and ground instability: Tunis faces in general a moderate earthquake risk, but on account of the poor geotechnical quality of Tunis’ soils, the damage risks would be consider- ably higher. Subsidence in the downtown area presents distinct challenges to the neighbor- hoods built on land reclaimed from the Lake of Tunis during the French colonial period, rich with architecture which is part of the cultural patrimo- ny of the city According to the study, the related risks increase from medium to high between now and 2030. s Water scarcity: Water demand will increase in Tunis, on account of a bigger, wealthier popula- tion by 2030, simultaneously with an expected considerable drop in average rainfall at the national scale. Despite excellent water resource management at the national level, urban usage will place more strains on the resource, with the result that water scarcity rises to a medium risk in 2030, from a low risk in 2010. The likely aggregate economic losses from all the risks amount to a Net Present Value of $1.05 billion, or 8% of the urban economy of the capi- tal city. About 59% of the potential losses relate to submersion risks, with 26% reflecting seismic risks and 14% from storm surges. An estimated 25% of the potential losses by 2030 would be at- tributable to climate change, with most involving flooding. By 2030, factoring in climate change and sea level rise, signi cant stretches of the Greater Tunis seaboard, indicated in darker shading, Adaptation and Resilience Responses could be submerged during mega-storms likely to occur every hundred years. Overall, climate-resilient urban planning will be cru- cial for Tunis to manage the risks caused by natural hazards and climate change. Areas of the city that are periphery will need to be contained, in line with the low-lying and subject to flooding will require further recommendations of the Master Plan. Careful zoning, upgrading of drainage systems before further develop- with allowance for green spaces, along with rigorous ment is allowed. Illegal housing development at the enforcement of standards, will be critical. NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 19 Urban Planning Modern air-based surveillance can provide valuable contributions in such systems. The city will need a Zoning decisions would also factor in the city’s signifi- specific plan for reversing already observed erosion cant subsidence problems, which undermine its resil- in the vicinity of Rades, and in certain other areas. ience to storms, seismic risks and extreme weather. The study advanced a series of specific recommen- Future developments will have to be designed so as dations for other stretches of coastline that have to minimize additional loads to runoff, by providing been degraded over time, by storms and changes in for on-site absorption of rain-water via green roofs, the coastal profile. Overall, Tunis would also benefit rainwater storage and other environmental devices. from a better legal framework for the management of coastal zones. Institutional Preparedness Infrastructure Investments Because of the potential damage from earthquakes, sea surges and tsunamis, the study recommends that Infrastructure strengthening will be critical in certain a system of monitoring and early warning, coupled areas. Sewerage and drainage structures in Tunis with communications plans for alerting citizens and will require upgrading, within an overarching master enterprises, be installed. For the most exposed areas, plan. Better equipment to manage water levels at the sirens and other emergency systems would be neces- lake and harbor will be necessary and in some areas, sary. Concurrently, the city should begin to assess in dikes will be the required part of the solution. Tunis detail the vulnerability of existing buildings to the will also need to invest in reinforcing existing drain- various risks so that specific actions may be carried age and sewage systems so that they can manage the out to increase their resilience. Some areas will likely more frequent extreme weather events. To address require an urban requalification strategy. increasing pressures on limited water resources, a system for optimizing water uses and better managing Tunis also needs monitoring systems to track the consumption will be needed, including revised pric- retreat of beaches and threats to its coastal barriers. ing policies. Central Tunis, former and present industrial areas on the southern shore of the lake and the port of Rades have experienced signi cant subsidence as measured via satellite observation, raising risk levels. Source: ESA. Figure 23 : Zone 2 - Lac de Tunis et partie Nord-Est de la Sebkha Sejoumi (Source : TRE 2010) THE BOUREGREG VALLEY INCORPORATING RISK REDUCTION IN THE PLANNING Climate-smart planning is particularly relevant in the With some settlements planned for the mouth of the case of the Bouregreg Valley, since it is possible to river, and other areas slated for construction currently mitigate many of the risks affecting the site before vulnerable to flooding and landslides, the develop- infrastructures are built and buildings erected. Broadly, ment could end up putting more people and assets at the project is a high-end development of a quasi-virgin risk. However, the opportunity to adopt climate-resil- site, and therefore it is entirely possible to expect that ient land-use policies and building designs creates the a high level of protection be built into its plans from prospect of mitigating the risks significantly as part of the start. The planned development envisions about the planning process. 140,000 inhabitants and 90,000 new jobs—all to be located in an area vulnerable to natural disasters and climate-related risks. The project site is located at Urban Risk Assessment the estuary of the Bouregreg River, with a major dam behind it, the open sea in front, and two steep slopes Following are the risk assessments for the Bouregreg on either side. Valley for the current, pre-project scenario, as well as for the 2030 scenario: s Flooding: The Bouregreg Valley has been a flood-prone valley since time immemorial, and consequently has remained practically undevel- oped. Since the construction of the Sidi Moulay Urban Risks Increase Over Time in All Urban Locations Ben Abdellah dam, water flows are regulated under the Study and controlled, including at times when the dam Urban Risks Bouregreg Valley capacity is attained and large volumes of water Horizon Current 2030 have to be released downstream. This currently Seismicity/ground instability/ happens with little hindrance to people or assets, Tsunami/Marine submersion but could become a major problem given on one Coastal Erosion side the expected increase in the frequency and Flooding intensity of extreme weather events, and on the Water Scarcity other the land-use and construction plans for the Valley. The related risk rating would jump from Very High High Medium Low the current low to very high for the 2030 scenario. NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 21 The Bouregreg Valley project, as envisioned in this map, represents one of the most substantial developments in North Africa, with 140,000 new inhabitants and 90,000 jobs expected in a site with high natural risks. s Tsunamis and marine submersion: Tsuna- s Coastal erosion: Current risks, rated medium, mic episodes have hit the Moroccan coastline in would be lessened to low by 2030, on account of relatively recent times, however this risk is con- the measures which have already been integrated sidered currently as medium on account of the into the development plan, and which include low level of population and assets in the Valley. the construction of sea defences against beach The same applies to marine submersion related and coastal erosion. to storm surges. Such risks become high by 2030 on account of the implementation of the project s Seismic risk and ground instability: Two itself. issues affect the Bouregreg Valley: on one hand 22 | THE BOUREGREG VALLEY: INCORPORATING RISK REDUCTION IN THE PLANNING the low geological quality of the soils, which risk liquefaction and that thus amplify a rela- tively low seismic risk; on the other, the risk of landslides from the steep slopes surrounding the valley. Such risks are considered low on account of the current level of population and assets exposure, but are rated as medium for the 2030 scenario. s Water resources scarcity: Water supply is subject to few pressures today, but water scar- nds: city would be considered a medium risk by 2030, assuming current estimates of population and industrial growth. The development of the Boure- XX XXXX XXXX XXXX greg Valley could in itself contribute significantly XX XXXX XXXX XXXX to pressures on limited water sources for coastal XX XXXX XXXX XXXX Morocco. The valley is hemmed in by steep slopes, which are subject to landslides and rock slides. These would threaten buildings within the Adaptation and Resilience Responses planned development. Risks could increase with climate change and more frequent torrential storms. Data on low lying areas can help planners avoid locating populations and properties in parcels of land likely to be inundated during episodes of torrential By 2030, marine submersion risks related to an exceptional 100-year storm would extend beyond the presently vulnerable areas indicated in blue to include additional areas indicated in red. NORTH AFRICAN COASTAL CITIES ADDRESS NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE | 23 rains or floods. For other areas, structures can be de- changes, as well as the expectation that the sea signed to withstand the expected stresses. Buildings level will rise by as much as 20 cm by 2030 and can be sited, adapted and reinforced in ways that continue to rise. would lessen the damage from natural disasters and extreme weather. Development plans will have to take into account water flows, ground absorption and drainage Climate-smart Planning challenges in the areas most subject to flood- ing. Aspects of the current development plan The assessments necessarily reflect the dynamic raise concerns. For example, plans for the Kasbat nature of the various risks. For example, downstream Abu Raqraq area envision housing construction from the Moulay Hassan bridge, there are signifi- on part of a flood plain, with as many as 50,000 cant flooding risks from weather events historically people potentially exposed to flood risks. considered likely only once every century. Although precise adjustments do not exit, there is a broad Overall, an audit and review of zoning, building understanding that under most climate change and infrastructure plans for the Bouregreg Valley scenarios, episodes of extreme weather will hap- could lead to a series of project adjustments that pen more frequently, so that a 100-year event soon could render the development far less vulner- may be likely to occur as often as once every fifty able. Investing in climate-smart planning at this years. Planning new infrastructures and buildings in stage, before structures are in place, would surely the Bouregreg Valley should take into account such generate significant savings over time. To learn more about the study, download the full reports and view related materials on the following web-sites: www.cmimarseille.org The Marseille Center for Mediterranean Integration (CMI) aims to enhance the convergence of sustainable development policies by providing a platform for knowledge sharing and joint learning. http://arabworld.worldbank.org The Arab World Initiative (AWI) is a World Bank Group partnership with the countries of the Arab world designed to foster effective cooperation and collaboration in the interests of economic integration and knowledge sharing.