No. 28923-RU 28 , 2004 ( 11 2004 .) - (RUB) 1 0,028 1 28,95 ARV Antiretroviral ( 11) BEEPS Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey CANCEIS CGE Computable General Equilibrium DVO / / - GFS Government Financial Statistics (. 8) IISB Institut Integrierte Systeme und Bauelementetechnologie, Fraunhofer MFN Most-Favored Nation PMT Proxy-Means Test ( ) RLMS SAE Small Area Estimation SUSENAS - () TANF Temporary Assistance for Needy Families UA Unemployment Assistance UKDA , -: : . : . : : ........................................................................................................................................I ....................................................IX A. ..... ix A1 ............................................................................ ix A2 : .............................................. x A3 2007 . , ........................................................................................... xvi B. ................................................................... xviii B1 ................................................................................................ xviii B2 ............................................. xx C. .......................................................xxiv C1 ..................................................xxiv C2 .........................................................................................................xxvii C3 ..........................................................................................xxix C4 ...................................................................................xxxi D. ............................................................................................................... xxxiii I. ............................................................................................. 1 1. ...... 3 A. ­ ............. 4 B. .............................................. 6 C. .......................................................... 10 D. ................................................ 18 2. .......................................................................................... 22 A. ........................................................................................... 22 B. ............................................................................................................. 25 C. ?........................................................................................................ 33 D. .......................................................................................................................... 39 3. .......................................................... 41 A. .............................. 42 B. ...................................................................................... 49 C. ........................................................ 53 D. , :........................................................................ 55 II. ..................................................................................................................... 57 4. 1998 ............ 59 A. 1999-2003 .......................................... 59 B. «» ..................................................... 64 C. ........................ 69 5. .......................................... 71 A. ......................................................................................................................... 71 B. , 1999 ., ............................................................................................ 74 C. .............................................................. 75 D. ........................................................................................................................... 80 E. i ................................................................................................ 81 6. , ........................................... 84 A. , 1997-2002 .......................................................................... 84 B. ......................................................................................... 92 C. - , ........................... 93 7. ........................................................................................................................................... 96 A. ................................ 97 B. .....................................................101 C. .................................................................................102 D. .............................................102 E. ..........................................................................................................................103 III. ....................................................................................................................106 8. ....................109 A. .............................................109 B. , , , ...................116 C. ................................................................124 9. - ...........................................................................................................126 A. ............................................................126 B. - ­ ......................129 C. ...................................................................................................................136 10. ..........................................................................138 A. .....................................................................................138 B. ..................144 C. ...................................................................................................................147 11. : .............................................................150 A. ...........................................................................150 B. ................................................................154 C. .....................................................................................................156 D. « » .....................................159 E. ...............................................................164 IV. ..............................................................................170 12. ..171 A. ......................................................................171 B. ...................................................................172 C. ................................................................................173 D. : ...........175 E. ..................................................................................178 ......................................................................................................181 :...................................................................................................................217 ii A: , 1997-2002 .: ( ................. ii B: .................................................. v 1: , 1997-2002 .: ( ) ............................................................................................. x 2: 1998 . (1997=100).................................................... xi 3: ...................................................... xiii , 1997-2003 ........................................................................ xiii 4: (1997=100)............................. xiii 5: , 1995-2003 .......................... xiv 6: ...................................................xv , 1997-2000 .................................................................xv 7: xvi 8: , 2002 ............................................ xx 9: , 1999-2002 ., ....................................................................................................................... xxi 10. , 2002 : ............................................................................................................................. xxiii 11: , 1999-2002 . ............................................xxiv 12: ( ).......................xxv % , ...........xxv 13: .............................................xxvi 14: (2003 .)......xxix 15: ............................................xxx 16: - : 1997-2003 . ..................................................................................................xxxii 1.1: : , , ....................................... 8 1.2: ............ 9 1.3: ........................... 19 2.1: , 2002 . ................................................................................................................................ 28 2.2: , 2002 . ( 20 . ) ............................................................................................. 29 2.3: .................................. 30 2.4: - (1992-2003 .) ................................ 35 2.5: : ­ .......................................................................................................... 38 2.6: , , 100 (2002 , . ) ............................................................................................................................................... 39 3.1: , , 1997 ....................................................................................................................................... 43 3.2: ( ) 2002 . ( , .)............................................................... 44 3.3: 12 12 , 1999 2002 . .................................................................................................................................. 46 3.4: , 1999-2002, ( ) ( ). ..... 47 iii 3.5: , 2002............................ 50 3.6: , 2002............... 50 3.7: : 1999, 2002................................................. 51 3.8: , 2002....................................................... 52 3.9: , 2002 ......................................................... 52 3.10: (-), 2002 ...... 54 3.11: . 55 4.1: , , 1997-2003 ., %.............................................................................................. 60 4.2: 1990-98 ., 1991=100 ............................................................................................................................................... 60 4.3: , 1999-2003 ., 1997=100................................................................................................................................ 61 4.4: ....................... 62 4.5: , 1998 ............................................................. 63 4.6: 1999-2001 ..................... 63 4.7: - ................................................................ 64 4.8: 1997-2003 ., 1997=100.............................................................. 65 4.9: 1997-2003 ., % .................................................................................................................... 66 4.10: 1999 2002 ............................................................. 68 5.1: ......................................................................................................... 74 5.2: , 1990-2000. ...... 75 5.3: , , 1997-2003 ............................................................................................................................................ 76 5.4: , 1997-2002 . ......................................................................................................................... 77 5.5: , , , 1995-2003 . .............................................................................. 78 5.6: , 1994-2000 ...................................................................................................... 78 5.7: ..................................................................................................................................... 82 6.1: , 1997-1999 . ............................................ 86 6.2: .......................... 86 6.3: ................................................................................................... 87 6.4: , , 1997-2002 ........... 90 6.5: , 20 % , 1997- 2002 . .................................................................................................................................. 90 6.6: , 2002-2008 .. ... 94 6.7: 5% , 2002- 2008 . .................................................................................................................................. 94 7.1: ......................................................................................................................................103 8.1: ........................119 8.2: , .........121 8. 3: ........................122 9.1: - 1992-2000 .........127 9.2: ....131 9.3: ...........................132 ( , ) , ...................132 10.1: 16-17 iv .....................................................................140 10.2: ( ) 2003 ...................................................................141 10.3: 2003 ..............................144 10.4: (% ), 1997 - 2002 . .........................................145 10.5: (% ): ............145 10.6: , ./., 2001 . ........................................................146 10.7: .........................146 11.1: , 1970-2003 ............................................................................................................152 11.2: , 1987- 2003 . .................................................................................................................................154 11.3: , 1991-2001 ................157 11.4: , , 2001 ...............................................159 11.5: ...............................160 , 1994-2001 . .............................................................................................160 11.6: , , 20 % ( 20%) 20% ( 20%), %......................162 11.7: , , ...............163 A5.1: , 1996-97...............201 6.1: 1997-98...........................................................................203 6.2: 1998-99...........................................................................204 6.3: 1999-00............................................................................204 6.4: 2000-01...........................................................................204 6.5: 2001-02...........................................................................205 6.6: 1997-02...........................................................................205 v 1: , 1997-2002 .......................................................................... xii 2: , 1997- 2002 . ( ) ...................................................................................................xv 3: ................ xxviii 1.1: : 2002 .............................................................. 15 1.2: ( ) : ................................................................................................................... 16 1.3: , 1997-2002 . ......................................................................................................................... 18 1.4: , 1997- 2002 . .................................................................................................................................. 18 1.5: , 1997-2002 . ......................................................................................................................... 19 2.1: ........................................................................ 26 2.2: ....... 26 2.3: .................................................. 27 2.4: .......................................................... 30 2.5: , , ......................................................................... 31 2.6: , .......................................................................................................................... 32 2.7: , ......................................................................................................................... 32 2.8: .............................................................................. 33 2.9: ............. 34 ( ) ......... 34 2.10: ( ; )35 2.11: , , , , .......................................................... 37 3.1: 1997-2002 ..................................... 45 3.2: ( ), 1997-2002 .............................................................................................................................. 49 4.1: 1998 . 1999-2001 .............................................................................................................. 63 4.2: 1998-2003 .............................................. 66 4.3: , 1997-2002 (% ) ......... 68 5.1: , 1992-2002 .................................................... 72 5.2: , 1997-2002 .......................................................... 72 5.3: , 1985-2000 . ......................................................................................................................... 72 5.4: , 1992-2002 ., % .......................... 73 5.5: : 1990-2000 ................................ 75 5.6: , 1997-2002 ................................. 76 5.7: .................................... 79 5.8: , 2000 .............................................................. 80 6.1: , 2002 ., 1997-2002 .. ............................................................................................................................................... 85 6.2: .................................................................................. 87 i 6.3: , , 1997-2002 ............................................................................ 88 6.4: : ..................................... 89 6.5: , , 1998-2002 .................................................................................... 91 6.6: ... 92 6.7: ............................................................................................................. 92 6.8: ....................................................................... 93 7.1: ,.................. 97 1995-2001................................................................................................................................... 97 7.2: : ......................................... 98 7.3: , ( )........105 8.1: 2002 . ................................................111 8.2: ..........................................................113 8.3: , 2003 ......................................114 8.4: 115 8.5: .....................................116 8.6: , % , 1997-2002 . .....................................117 8.7: - .......................................................................................................120 8.8: .................................................................................................................................121 8.9: ..............................................................124 8.10: , , ................................................124 9.1: ............................130 ( , ) ...........130 9.2: ...........................................................................132 9.3: ............................................................133 9.4: ...............................................................................................................................134 9.5: .........................134 9.6: ..............................................................................................................................................134 10.1: , 2003 .........................................................................................................141 10.2: , (%)...........142 10.3: , ............................................................................................................................147 11.1: (%)..........................151 11.2: , , (%) ........................................................................................................................151 11.3: : .................................................................................................153 11.4: - , 100.000 .........155 11.5: , 1999-2001 . ( 1.000 ).................................................................................................155 11.6: , 1999-2001 ..................................................................................155 11.7: 1997-2002 . (% )...................................................157 ii 11.8: , 2003 . (.)....................162 11.9: : , , 2003 . (%)............................................164 11.10: « ?» (%) ..................................................164 A1.1: 2002.....................181 T A1.2: , 2002 ............184 ( ) ......................................................................................................184 A1.3: , 2002 . .............................................187 A3.1: ............................................................194 A3.2: ( )............................196 A3.3: ( ).......................................................198 A5.1: , 1997-2002 . (1997=100)..200 6.1: ...................................................................206 9.1: ...............................................................209 9.2: , ..............................................................................................................................210 9.3: , , .............................................................................................................211 9.4: , , ..................................................................................213 9.5: , .................................................................................................................216 iii , (ECSPE), : (Hiromi Asaoka, ECSHD), (Bob Barnes, ), (ECSPE), (ECSPE), (John Langenbrunner, ECSHD), (Zurab Sajaia, ), (James Stevens, ECSHD), (David Tarr, DECRG), (Emil Tesliuc, HDNSP) (DECDG). , , ( ): , (Jeff Alwang), , (Franziska Gassman), (John Gibson), , (Andre Decoster), , , (Nanak Kakwani), (Graham Kalton), , , , , (Gad Nathan), , , , , , , (Alan Thompson), , , , (Chris Ash). , (Martin Ravallion) . . , . ( ): , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . - , , . (Giovanna Prennushi, PRMPR), (Tamar Manuelyan Atinc, EASPR) (Jill Fletcher, ). . , (Christine Jones) . (Julian Schweitzer) . (Asad Alam), (Cheryl Gray), (Daniela Gressani), (Pradeep Mitra) (Debbie Wetzel). (Emily Evershed), (Usha Khanna) . (Judy Wiltshire), (Rosario Hablero), , , , . , , (Jill Fletcher), , (Simon Bland). (Martin Harris) - (Kim Bradford-Smith) i . , , , , . « , ». , . : , , ( ); , , , ( ); , ( ); ( ). , ­ . : , (Bob Barnes), (Tulia Beltran), , , , , , , , (Alison Panton), (Mansoora Rashid), (Zurab Sajaia), (Emil Tesliuc), (Valery Ciancio) . ( , , ). : , , (Vera Wilhelm), (Shahidur Khandker), (Nidhi Khattri) (Jaesang Hwang). - (John Adams) (Suzane Otis). ii , , , , , 1997 . , , . , , « , » - , , , , , . , , , . 2007 . . , , ( ) . . , -, . , , « » (RLMS) , , , . . 1997-2002 . . « » (), , 49 000 , 1952 . , , . , I ­ , 2003 . . II , , , i , , . , . III , . , : , , , . , 1999-2002 . . . 1999 2002 « . ». , 41,5% 1999 . 19,6% 1: 2002 . (. ). , 2002 . - 1998 . , . , . 2007 . . . 1999. A: , 1997- 2002 .: ( . , % , . 80 , . 70 60 , 50 40 , 30 $2.15 / . 20 10 $4.30 / 0 , 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : 6, 6.3. . ­ , . , . 5% . , , 3% , . , , , 1998 . ii . 20-30 , , . 5%, . , · 1998 ., , . 40%, , ( , , ), . , · . . , , , . - . 2002. . 36,8% 40% . , 5%, , , . . : (i) , , , , , , . , , , ; (ii) , , , , . , (iii) , (iv) , , , , (v) , . (). , , , ( 7% 1999 ., , ). , : , · 1997 2003 . , , iii , , . , , 2: , . : , · , , , , . 88% . ; , · , , , , ­ , , , ­ : . · 2002 . 30,4% , , , 15,7%. ; · : 58,5% ; , · - 73,2%. 19,6%, , 16 , - , 26,7%. . , , , ; , , · , . , ; , , , · , , 50% , . ; 3: · , 2002 . 3,1% 55,6%. , . iv , , , 4% . . , . . , , , , . . , , , . , , 30% 20% . 20% , , , 60% . , . , , , , , . . . , , , . B: , ( , , ) : . . , : : : , , : t : . , : . , : 2-3 , : . : . : : . . : : , . , , . v . : , . . ( ) . , . , 30 55 . , , . , , , , . , . vi , ; , - ; . , , ; ; , , . , , ( . ), . , . . , . vii , , , . . , . , - , . . , , , . viii A. A1 1 , () (i) ; (ii) , 1 ; (iii) 2,15 4,30 . (. 1). , . , . 1. 1999 ., 1998 . . 1999 . . 1999 2002 . : 41,5 1999 . 19,6 2002 .. , , 30 . 2. 1999 ., 1998 . . 1999 . . 1999 2002 . : 41,5 1999 . 19,6 2002 .. , , 30 . 1: , , « » . . ( ) 1992 . 1999 .. 2000 . , . , 2000 ., , . , , , , , . , , . 2002 . 1056 . . 3,54 . . 2,15 4,30 . . ix 1: , 1997-2002 .: ( ) , % , . . . 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 $2.15 / 30 20 20 10 10 0 $4.30 / 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : 6, 6.3. 3. 1997 1998 ., . , , 0,370 1997 . 0,392 1998 ., 0,368 2002 . A2 : 4. 1998 . . 1999 2003 . 37,5 , - ( 4). : · , , ­ , , ­ ( 2). , , . , , . , c, ( ) .1 1 . ( ) . . World Bank, Transition Meets Development (2004). x 2: 1998 . (1997=100) 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : · , . 1999-2002 . , , () . , 1998 . (, ), . 5. . · 40 1998 . . ( , ). · ó - . . · ( 1999 .) , ( 40 ). · , - . · , , . 6. , . ( 5). 1999 ., , . . , . , , xi , . « » 38,1 1998 . 36,9 2002 ., . 7. , , . a. 1998 ., ( 1). 1999 2002 . 4,6 . 1: , 1997-2002 . 1992 1997 1998 1999[1] 2000 2001 2002 5,2 11,8 13,2 12,6 9,8 8,9 8,6 ( ) : 15 72 . . 5. [1] 1999 . , . : , , 2003 ., . 76. b) . , . 1998 2002 . 2,5 ( 3) c) 1998 2002 . , . , 1998 2002 . 6 .. 4 , ­ 2 . , , . , . xii 3: , 1997-2003 . 1760 1740 1720 1700 1680 1660 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : , , . d). 1999 ., . ( 62 1998 2002 .), ( 4). 2002 . 1997 . 10 . , , , , . 4: (1997=100) 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 8. : (i) - , ; (ii) 1999-2002 . , ; (iii) , , , . · . , . . 1999 ., . , , , xiii , ( 5). 5: , 1995-2003 . 90000 140 . . . ( 1998 .) 80000 120 )8991(.70000 100 60000 50000 80 40000 60 , . /, ., 30000 40 20000 20 10000 0 0 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : , (2003 .), . 445. · 1999 .. , , . . . · 2000 ., . ( , ) . 1997 2000 . , ­ 10 . , . , . 1999 . 5 20 2002 . ( 2). 2000 ., . xiv 2: , 1997- 2002 . ( ) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 4,6% 3,6% 3,0% 2,8% 3,1% 3,9% 3,5% 3,4% 2,9% 2,8% 2,9% 3,2% 16,0% 13,3% 9,7% 8,9% 10,9% 12,6% ( 3 ) 24,10% 20,30% 15,60% 14,50% 16,90% 19,70% 9. , . 1997 1998 ., - , , . 6 . , 1997 1998 ., . 1999-2002 . , . , 1999-2002 ., , . , , , , , , . 6: , 1997-2000 . ) ) %( , 1997-1998 % , 1999-2002 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 0 20 40 60 80 100 (18 16 14 12 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 10. ó . . 35,3 1997 . 60,5 1999 ., 28,1 2002 .. , : · , (. B). , xv . · , . , . 54,9 1997 . 69,7 1999 ., 51,1 2002 .. , . , . 11. , . . 1997 1999 . , ­ , . A3 2007 . , 12. 2007 . 2002 . . . 2002 2007 . , 5 ( , ). 5 2007 . 10,2 . , 3 , ( 7). 7: ( , 2002=100) 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 5% 4% 70.0 3% 60.0 50.0 40.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 13. . , . 5 , . xvi ­ , ­ , , . , . 14. 5 , , 5 . 1998 . , . . , . , , , , , . , , 2007 . , 5 . 15. , 1999-2003 . , . , , 1999 ., , : · , . 1997 2003 . 20 , . · 1998 . 400 , , . , , . · . . , , . , , , . , . , , . , . , , (). , . xvii 16. , ( 7 ). , 49 000 ( 7). . ( , ) , , ­ , , . 17. , , . , , , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , , , . . 18. , ( ). , , , ­ ­ (. World Bank 2004). , ­ , , ­ , . B. B1 19. 2002 ., . 20. , . 2002 . 19,6 . 26 . . , 10 50 , . 21. , , , , 19,6 . , . , , xviii . · . , 30,4 , 15,7 , . · , .2 , ­ 6,6 , ­ , 17 . · . 16 26,7 , . , . . · , . , . · 50 , . · , , . , 40 , , . 22. , , . ­ ­ , , , . · , . 88 , . · , , . , , . · . 58,5 . , , (73,2 ) 23. . , , , . . 24. . , 2 «NOBUS», , , , . xix . , . , . 2002 . 36,8 . , 33 . , ( «RLMS») : 2002 . 42 . 25. , . - ( ) ( ). , ( 8). 8: , 2002 . 100.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 1 () 60.0 2 60.0 1 () 3 2 40.0 4 3 40.0 5 () 4 5 () 20.0 20.0 0.0 )( 0.0 )( B2 26. - . () 67 , , 33 . 2002 . , . , . , , . 27. , , . 1997-2002 . . : xx . , , 1997-1998 ., . , , , . 9 1999-2002 . 1999 .; . , , 1999-2002 , . 9: , 1999-2002 ., 30% ,25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 1,000 10,000 100,000 , 1999 28. . 10 , 90 ­ . , , . , - , . 29. . 2002 . 3,1 55,6 . , 10, . , , . , . 30. , , . 11 , , . , , «» , . . , . , , , xxi . 31. , . , . . · , . , , ­ . · . , ; . · , . · , . 32. . , , ( ), . , . . , xxii Katya Pivovarova 6/29/2004 :2002, .01 2002,: xxiii 11: , 1999-2002 . 100% 75% 1999 50% 2002 ,2002 , 1999 25% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% ( -) C. 33. , , , , . ­ , . , . -, , . -, , , , , , . . , , , , , , . -, , - . -, , , .. . C1 34. - . 2002 . 12,6 . xxiv , , ­ ( , , , ). 2 . , (6,3 ), , , . , (, ) . 5,9 , 3,9 , 2 ­ . 35. : . : , - (20 ); (11 ); , (9 ); , (20 ); - , (1 ). (): (i) ; (ii) - ; (iii) , . , 45 , ­ 42 . 36. , , . 2002 . 0,4 , 4,3 , .. 10 . ( 12). 12: ( ) % , - 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% : 2003. xxv 37. , , , . , , : . , , 30 28 . 60 . , , , , . 13, . 13: ( , ) : : . : : : : t : : . : () : . : : : . . : : - 20 40 60 80 100 , 38. . , : · , , ó , , . · , , , . . , , . , , , . xxvi · . , (0,2 2002 .), , . . C2 39. - . 1992 . 100- - , . - , . 2000 ., .. , 54 , 10 , 1992 . 40. : , , - . · 1992 . , , , , , . 1991 2002 . 10 , . , , ­ , 50, 0 . . · 1994 . - . , - ( ) 22 ( ). , 2003 ., . , - , . 41. - - . 1. . 2002 . , , 2,3 , .. . , - , 3 . 2. , . - , xxvii . , , . 3. , , , (. 3). 4. , . 3: ( -, ) 2 3 4 20 20% % 6% 6% 8% 8% 6% 4% - 32% 26% 35% 35% 36% 28% : . ( 2003 .). 42. . . · - , . , , . · 22 , . · , , , , , . · 100- , - . · 100- , , . , xxviii - , , , 17,7 10,6 . 4 . , , . , 100- . C3 43. . , , . , 100 - . , , , , . , , , , , , . , ( 14). 2003 . , , - , . , , , , . . 14: (2003 .) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 7 8 910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 : 2003. 44. . , , , , . , , , xxix - . , , , . , , . , 15 80 . , , . 45. . 1998 . . , - - , ( 15). , , . , ( ), . 15: 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ./.. . . . . 46. , , : · . . · , , , . · , , , , , , xxx - . , , ( ), , (, , , ), , . · , ­ ­ , , . C4 47. , . - : , . , : . , . , . ( , , , ). ( ). 48. , . · 1980- , (.. 1990- ), 1998 . · (25-64 ). · , 1980- . 10 , . · , / ­ , . . - ( 16). xxxi 16: - : 1997-2003 . 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : , , 2004 . · , , . . 49. . 1995 ., 3,0 4,0 , 1998 . , 6-8 , , . : , , , . , , . , , . . 89 , - . . 50. , , , . , . ( , ) . , 30 55 . , 2003 ., , 35 , . , . . xxxii . 51. , : 1. , , (, ), , . , . . 2. . . . , . 3. , . : . , (, ), , ( ). b. , , . d. / . D. 52. : (i) , (ii) , , , ; (iii) . . . , , . xxxiii I. . . , . , , , . 1 , , . , , , . , , . .. , 2 : (i) ; (ii) ; (iii) . , , , , , . , : - , , . , , - . 3. - , , . , . , , . , . 1 , , , , . 2 1. , . 1992 , ( ) , , . 2000 . : , , ; , . , (), 1997 , , . . , , . ( ) , , , ; . , , , , , , , ; , , , , . , , . 1.1 , 2003 . 20,4 . , 20,4 . . . . 3 ( ). , , . A. ­ . 1.2 1997 , () . . , 1952 . 1997 . : (i) , , ; (ii) , , / , 1994 ; ; (iii) . 49000 , , . , , 1997 , . , , , 1998 , . 12 , . 1.3 . , , . « » , . 1.4 « », . . , « »: , , , . , .3 1.5 , , - . 3 . , , , , , , . . 4 . , . , , , (, , ) , . . 1.6 1992 , 2000 . . , . . ( ) . ( ) , . ( ) 1992-99 . . 2000 . ( ) . -, . -, , , . -, , , 89 , . , , . 1.7 , , : , 1 6 , 7 15 , 16 59 , 16 54 ( 60 55 ). , 2000 ., 16 , . 15 . 1.8 2000 . . , . , , . . , . , . 5 1.9 , , . , . , . 1.10 , , 200 . 2000 . : 50 , 25 , 19 6 . B. 1.11 : , . , , . , 1.12 , , , . «» . . , , - . , , , . , , , . , 20-30 , . , , . , , . 1.13 , , . ­ . () . , . , , . , , . ? ­ , . ­ , 6 . 1.14 ( ) . , , . , ? ( ) . , , , , . , , . , , . , ( ) . , ( ) - . ( ) - , .4 1.15 , . , , , , . , . , ( ), , . , , . , 1.16 , , . , ­ , . , , , . , , « » , . , , 4 , , « » ("On the Utility Consistency of Poverty Lines", Martin Ravallion and Michael Lokshin). 7 . , , , 8 . ; , , . 1.17 , . , 11 . . , , , , . , , , , , , . , , , . , . , 50 , 25 ( 1.1). 1.1: : , , 100 80 60 40 ` 20 0 . . + : , Kochar (2000), LSMS . 1.18 , , , . , , . (. 1.2). , , , 1997 2000 ., 1998 . . 8 1.2: 6.0 0.6 6.0 - 1. 4- . 2000 . 1998 5.0 0.5 5.0 1. .. 4.0 0.4 4.0 0. 3.0 0.3 3.0 0. ( 2.0 0.2 1.0 0.1 2.0 0. . 1.0 0. 0.0 0.0 (.).. 0.0 0. ). 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 -1.0 -0.1 - - -2.0 -0.2 - .. .. - ** 1997 ., 1000, y. 1 -0.53 3 1998 . , 1.19 , , . , , , . , . , , , , . , , , , : (i) ; (ii) , , . , , . , . , 2000 . , 5400 ( ) . . 220 1, 3 1 . , , , . 9 C. 1.20 ( ) , , , ( ). . , , . , , . ( ), . ( ), ( ) , . , . . 1.21 . , , , , , . , , . - . . ( ) . , , , . , , , , , , . ( ). . 1.22 , , . , . , «» (1980, 1985) . 10 , , «». , ­ , . , , , (. 1.2, ). 1.1: , , , . , 88 , 2001 , 52 , , , 36 . , , - , . . , (NSS), . SUSENAS , , . . 1998 . , , . , 1998 , (SSB) , , . 1.23 , . , , , . ­ ­ . , , , . , , , .5 , . . , , , . , , . , , , . - . , , 5, 30 , , 15 . 11 , , . 1.24 , , . - , , , , , . . , . -, , , . , . -, , , , , , . , , , . , , , , , , , . 1.25 , , (Deaton and Zaidi, 2002). , « », : (i) ; (ii) ; (iii) (, , ); (iv) , ; (v) . 12 1.2: , , , Deaton Zaidi, 2002, , (2003) . , " / ..., ." , , . , , . , , . , 1997-2002 .. , . , , . Deaton Zaidi (2002 .), , , . , , . RLMS, Decoster Verbina (2003 .) . (2003 .), , . , 23.1 , 32 . : · 10 , Deaton-Zaidi , . , , . · , . 3 . , , , . · 18.3 , , , 24.6 . · , . 44 . · , . 97 , 82 . , , , , 1997-2002 .. 1.1 1.6 . 2 3 , . , . 13 1.26 . , : · () , , . · , . , , , , . . , , 1.27 ( ). , . , ( ) , ( ). ( ) , , , , . ( ), , ( ) . 2002 . 1.28 ( ) . : 16-59 ; 16-54 ; ; 1 ; 1-6 ; 7 15 . , - . 2002 . 2283 . 1.29 , 8,2 ( 10,1) 1000 ( ) 2002 . 14 2002 . , ­ , . ; , . , . 1.1. 8,2 1000 . , . . 1.30 ( ) , ( ) ( ). , . , ( ) 8,2 ( 1000 ) , 10,1 ( 1000 ) ( ). ( ) . 1.1: : 2002 . 1000 1 8,2 2 10,1 3 11,5 4 13,1 5 17,0 1.31 ( ) 2002 . 570 , ( ) 703 . . . . . 2002 , 15 88 , 100. : (. 1.1 , 2002 .). ( ) ­ , , . ( A1.2 ( ) ). 1.32 ( ) . ( ) (. 1.2.). , ( ) ( ). 0,9 ; 0,0 , , ; 0,0 ; 1,0 . : , ; ­ , . 1, , . 0, , , . 1.2: ( ) : % % 570.3 54.0 702.5 56.2 196.5 18.6 211.4 16.9 , , 129.6 12.3 154.1 12.3 19.7 1.9 24.0 1.9 26.1 2.5 33.4 2.7 66.3 6.3 71.4 5.7 23.2 2.2 27.8 2.2 23.9 2.3 26.3 2.1 485.5 46.0 548.5 43.8 1056 100.0 1251 100.0 16 1.33 ( ) . ( ) . (. A1.1 ). ( ) 100 . , ( ) ( ). ( A1.2 .). 1.34 ( ) , ( ). . ( ), , 486 . , ( ) 1056 2002 , ( ) 1251 . 54 . 1.2 . 1.35 ( ) ( 1056 ), 2002 . 19,6 . (1251 ), , 29 . 1.36 . , , . , , , , , . , , , . . , , , . 17 D. 1.37 ( ), . « », . , , , . , , . 1.38 . 1.3, « », . , , - , . 1.3: , 1997-2002 . , 1997(1) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 , 942 1 012 1 659 2 281 3 0603 888 518 601 925 1 205 1 7002 159 (1) . . 1.39 . 1.4 . , , , , . 1.4: , 1997- 2002 . , 1997(1) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (2) 411 493 908 1 210 1 500 1 808 273 345 655 793 940 1 056 (1) . , (2) 2000 . . 1.40 , , , , , : . , , . 1.5 , 2002 , . , . , , 18 . 1.5: , 1997-2002 . (%) 1997(1) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (2) 20.7 23.3 28.3 28.9 27.3 24.2 24.1 31.4 41.5 35.9 26.2 19.6 (1) . ; (2) 2000 . . 1.41 . : , , 0,40. , , , , . « » 2000 . 0.45. , , 0.36 2000 . ; (, , , , ) (. 1.3). 1.3: 15000 . .. 12000 capita capita) 9000 6000 3000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 : , 2000 . 1.42 , , . , , ( 2000 .) , - , 6 ( 1994 .). 6 , , , , 19 (. 1.3, ). , , , . «» , , , , . , . 1.3: , : , . , . , , . , . ­ . , , , , . , « » (TANF), . , «» : (a) ; (b) 5- ; (c) , , , , . , , , , , . TANF , , 25 200 , , . 1.43 . -, , . , , , , 100 : . -, , , . , (. ). , , , . , , : , . , , , . 20 , , , . 1.44 . , , . , ( ) . . , , . . . . , . , , . , , , . 21 2. . . , : « ?», . : « ?» « ?». . A. 2.1 « » . , , 7 . ­ , . , , , . .8 , , , . , , . , . 2.1 , . , , . 2.2 . , , , , , , . , , , . , , , . . , (, 2003). , , 7 , , 2000 . 8. (2003). 22 ( , ), , ( , 2003). , , . , - , , . 2.1: , . : · () ­ , , . 1 3 . 1992 . , 1, , () . , . · . , , , . . · , (), , 2400 . - (, , ), . 1989 , . . · / (, , ..). , , , .., . · ( 2003) , . , 44500 , , 46 . ( , ) . 23 2.3 . , : . , ­ , 2002 19,6 . , « ». , , , , , , ( 2.2). 2002 5,2 , , 26 . 0,02 . , 0,035 . , . , , . 2.2: : , . , , 1984 . () (P0). . , , . (P1), ( % ), , . , , , . (P2) . , . , , , . (.. ), , . : P0 = q ; P1=1 yi );P2 =1å(z - yi )2 ; n nå(z-z iÎQ niÎQ z2 n = , q = , z yi. 2.4 , ; «» , , . , , 2002 4 , . , , , , 9,3 . , 18 24 , 48 . , , « ». 2.5 , . , , . . , 2.1, « » « », . , (2600 2002 ) «» , . , , , 2002 1600 . . . , 2002 40 « », 10 « » ( 1999 49 19 ). . , 20 . , «». -, . B. 2.6 , : « » « ». , , , , , . , . , . . (« ») , . (« ») , . ? 1. , , , ( ) . 2.7 . 30 17 ( , ) ( 2.1). , . 25 28 25 . 25 , 40 . 2.1: « « » » 15.7 3.9 1.5 8.5 58.5 67.0 73.2 6.6 1.1 0.3 7.4 3.1 7.3 9.2 . 17.0 4.2 1.6 8.7 55.4 59.7 64.0 30.4 8.6 3.5 11.5 41.5 33.0 26.8 19.6 5.1 2.0 9.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 : 2002 . 2.8 .. 20 . , (« », , 2004). , , . . 2.2 , , . 20 . , 1 . ( .). 2.2: 1 12 8 500 000-999 900 13 5 250 000-499 900 16 7 100 000-249 900 16 7 50 000-99 900 21 7 20 000-49 900 21 8 20 000 25 12 39 45 23 100 : , 2003 . 2.9 . , . 2.1, , . , 2002 40 , , - ; , - ; - . 10 : , ; - - ; - - . 26 : - ­ , , . . 2.2 , 3, , . , , . . 2.2 2002 ; 20 . . , , , , . 2.10 , , , . , , . 36 ( 2.3). , , , .9 ­ 25 , , . 2.3: « « » » ( 16 26.7 7.4 3.0 10.4 24.9 20.4 18.3 ) 18.8 4.9 1.9 8.9 62.0 62.1 64.8 15.1 3.5 1.2 9.7 13.0 17.5 16.9 19.6 5.1 2.0 9.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 : 2002 . 2.11 . , , ( 0 15 ). 35-40 . , , 70 (. 2.3). 9 , 1998 , . . 8. 27 2.1: , 2002 . 28 2.2: , 2002 . ( 20 . ) : 2002 . 29 2.3: 30.0 9.0 8.0 25.0 7.0 20.0 6.0 5.0 15.0 4.0 10.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 Bellow [5-10) [10-15) [15-20) [20-25) [25-30) [30-35) [35-40) [40-45) [45-50) [50-55) [55-60) [60-65) [65-70) [70+ 5 . (P0) . : 2002 . 2.12 . . 2002 65 ( 2.4). : . 2.4: « » « » . 16.6 4.1 1.6 8.6 39.8 43.4 47.1 . 17.7 4.5 1.7 7.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 . 6.1 1.3 0.4 5.5 1.0 2.0 3.3 32.4 9.7 4.2 10.9 12.0 8.5 7.3 26.7 7.4 3.0 10.4 24.9 20.4 18.3 19.5 5.0 2.0 9.4 8.6 8.8 8.7 17.4 4.0 1.4 10.7 12.0 15.5 13.6 19.6 5.1 2.0 9.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 : 2002 . 2. ­ , , . 2.13 2.1-2.4 : . , . 30 3. , , 2.14 , , ( 40 ) ( 44 ) ( 2.5). 2.5: , , « « » » ( 16 ) 21.0 9.4 40.1 12.7 14.9 8.1 30.4 11.5 13.3 9.4 19.6 10.1 15.7 8.5 30.4 11.5 15.9 8.6 31.7 11.8 15.5 8.5 29.3 11.3 15.7 8.5 30.4 11.5 (4- .) 15.5 9.0 19.8 11.3 13.0 7.9 26.0 11.2 - 9.9 7.0 19.1 10.0 4.8 3.8 13.1 7.6 10.4 8.5 23.4 11.5 13.5 7.8 26.9 11.2 9.5 5.0 30.4 12.0 5.4 5.2 10.0 7.1 25.7 9.8 43.8 12.6 ( 16 ) 21.0 9.4 40.1 12.7 15.6 8.8 31.2 11.4 15.8 10.8 20.5 10.4 15.7 8.5 30.4 11.5 : 2002 . 4- 2002 . 1. ( ), - ( , ), ( ). 2.15 , , . (87 ) , ( 2.6).10 10 , . : , , , . , , , , . 31 2.6: , « » « » 22.3 6.2 2.5 9.3 27.6 24.3 24.3 2 18.0 4.5 1.7 9.1 59.7 63.3 65.0 47.3 15.3 7.0 12.7 6.8 3.9 2.8 14.7 3.2 1.1 10.2 5.9 8.6 7.9 19.6 5.1 2.0 9.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 : 2002 .. 2.16 . , : 2002 . 3,3 , , , 8,2 ( 2.7). , , . 59 . , , . , , . 2.7: , « (P0) (P1) (P2) » « » 13.6 3.2 1.2 8.4 33.1 42.7 47.7 1 20.3 5.2 2.0 9.5 34.9 34.3 33.8 2 30.8 8.5 3.4 11.8 23.8 19.2 15.2 3 48.9 16.1 7.3 10.7 8.2 3.8 3.3 19.6 5.1 2.0 9.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 : 2002 . 2.17 - . , ( 2.8). , , (24 ), , (6 « » , : 18 , 18-24 , , 65 . 32 ). . . (83 ) - . 2. « » . , ( « »), , . 2.8: . « « » » . 17.8 4.0 1.5 10.2 5.5 5.3 3.9 17.4 4.4 1.7 9.0 45.4 39.9 32.8 .-. 12.2 2.9 1.1 7.8 37.4 40.3 38.4 5.9 1.3 0.4 4.3 11.7 14.5 24.9 13.9 3.4 1.3 7.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 . . . - (4- « « .) » » . 24.1 6.0 2.3 12.0 4.7 4.2 2.7 21.1 5.5 2.1 9.5 37.9 30.6 24.8 .-. 14.3 3.5 1.3 8.5 44.6 47.6 43.1 6.0 1.4 0.5 4.6 12.8 17.6 29.4 13.9 3.4 1.3 7.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 : 2002 . C. ? 2.18 2002 6 . ( ). , , , ( 3 . ), ( 2 . ). , . , 2002 . . , , , , . , 40 ( « »). 10 , ­ 10 . ­ , «» (, ), «» (, ). : ( ) . . 33 2.19 , . . 2.20 , . 2002 4108 ( 140 . ). , 2.9, (75 ), (, , ). 2.9: ( ) . 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 32,5 26,5 25,7 23,9 18,9 80,2 82 84,6 81,3 75 27,8 29,3 29 24,5 18,7 15,5 19,2 20,6 16,2 11,5 30,5 37,4 37,1 29,1 24,2 26,1 31,1 33,3 29,3 18,1 65,4 58 58,8 51,7 43,4 35,7 38,9 39,2 36,3 29,3 63,7 67,2 65,7 61,0 38,8 64,6 70,5 67,5 61,3 41,4 70,8 72,2 70,7 68,4 51,2 53,7 49,6 39,6 29,1 21,6 28,5 23,4 20,8 12,3 8,9 : , . 2.21 ­ . , , , . , . : , , 0,26 1992 0,40 2002 ( ) (. . 2.4). ( ) . 3 10 . 11 , , . 34 2.4: - (1992-2003 .) 0.5 Officially published, nominal per capita incomes 0.45 0.4 Per capita expenditures in RLMS, direct data est. 0.35 0.3 HBS per capita consumption measure corrected for regional price differences 0.25 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : , RLMS, , . : ­ RLMS; 2.22 , , , . , . . , , , , 34 , , ( ), (. 2.10).11 , , , . 2.10: ( ; ) () (%) ( . ) ( , ) (1999) 1,800 26 (1998) 4,900 26 (1999) 820 33 (2002) 1,480 33 (2000) 1,205 34 (1998) 3,200 35 (2001) 1,600 38 (2001) 1,445 39 11 , ( ) , 2002 42 . 35 (2002) 1,290 47 (2002) 58 (2001) 1,912 26 (1998) 3,854 27 (2002) 1,910 28 (2001) 1,159 28 (2002) 668 28 (2000) 1,049 31 (2002) 1,057 38 : Milanovic (2003) Bogievi B., Krsti G., Mijatovi B., and Milanovi B. (2003) Siromastvo i Reforma Finansijske Podrske Siromasnima ( ). Beograd : Centar za liberalno-demokratske studije : Ministarstvo za socijalna pitania, 2003 (Beograd: Goragraf), SLS, , JPAR (2004). , , ; , (HICES) 2002 . 2.23 ( , ) . , , , , , (. 2.4). . , : · , . , , , .12 2.10 , , , , . · , , , , - . , , , . 1-3 , , 2.11. 12 . 36 2.11: , , , , 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.45 0.45 ( 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 ) 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.42 ( 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 ) 0.37 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.37 0.37 ( ) 0.35 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 (RLMS) 0.48 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.47 0.45 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.47 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.45 0.41 0.40 0.40 · , , , (). , . · , , , . . 2.24 , , , , , . . 2.5, ( ) ( ) . , . 2.25 , . . , . 2.3 , , , . , (. Ravallion and Mistaen, 2003). . , 37 (. 12). 2.5: : ­ 100.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 60.0 60.0 40.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 : ­ 1 ( ) ­ 2 ­ 3 ­ 4 ­ 5 ( ) 2.26 , , . , , . ( , ), . . , . , , . 38 2.3: ? , , . 2002 100 . -, , 3 «» , . -, , . , 2002 100 1000 . 525 . . , ( ), , , , . , , , , . 2.6: , , 100 (2002 , . ) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 . ./- ( 100 ), . : . D. 2.27 , , : 1. ; . , , . , ; ­ , . , , 39 . , , ( ) . 2. , , , ( ) . , . , . 3. . , , (, ). 2.28 , , . , , , , , .. 40 3. . , , . , , . , , . . , , . , , , 1999. , . , , . : . , , . , . 3.1 1993 . 89 ( ), 21 - (), 55 - ( ), ( -) 11 - ( ).13 3.1 ( 2002.) 13 , , , (-) . 41 3.2 , (, , ) , - . : 10,4 . ( ) 18.000 (. 3.1 ). , . , , , , , . , , , -, , , . 3.3 ( ), , .14 () , , . . , 1, . , , , , . A. (), , . , 3.4 - . 2001 . « » ( ­ UNDP) , . ( ­ The Human Development Index) 0,633 0,741 . , 32- 119- 173 , . , , . ­ , , ­ , . - ( ) -, . , , ­ . 14 1999. , . . , . 42 3.5 ( , . 3.1 () 1997, 1999 2002 . 2002 . , 67 . , . , , 19 , 2002 . 603 . , 2.300 . ( ) 750 . . , , . . 2002 . 33 , ­ 2 , . 3.6 , . . ( 1), , . , . , : - - « » ­ . « », , , . 3.1 - ( . 3.1). , , , . 3.1. , (0.28 ), , , , , , , . , , , « ». 3.1: , , 1997 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 97 97 / 99 98 97 97 98 ..., 98 . 97 95-97 95-97 ..., . 95-97 97 95-97 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 : , . : Shankar and Shah (2001). 43 3.7 , , , , . 3.1 ( 9 6 , , 2002 .). , , ( ), , . , , 2002 . 4 , ­ 3 . ( ) 0,117 0,096, . 3.8 , , . . 3.2 2002., , . , , , . , () . , . . 3.2: ( ) 2002 . ( , .) 100,000 10,0001, 100,000 1,000,000 : - . : ( 2002). , . 3.9 , , ; . (1992-1996, Hanson/Bradshaw, 2000), , (1997-2002 .) , . , . 3.1. , , ( ), , , 44 ; , . 3.10 (1999-2002) , . A3.1 , 1999 2002 , ( ). 3.3. 12 12 (1999) 2002 ( , ). ( ). , , , . ( ). , 1999 ., 1999-2002 . . . 3.3, . . . 3.3 « », (. ) , 3.1, ( ), () . 3.1: 1997-2002 Ma/M, , , ( ) 97 ( 2002) 25.5 0.319 0.336 99 ( 2002) 33.2 0.307 0.335 02 35.7 0.316 0.350 97 * 21.4 0.283 0.280 99 * 13.9 0.231 0.237 02 * 11.6 0.233 0.227 97 12.1 0.232 0.307 99 12.6 0.247 0.324 02 16.4 0.259 0.351 97 ** 8.1 0.147 0.208 99 ** 12.4 0.184 0.247 02 ** 11.6 0.203 0.259 97 10.0 0.294 0.212 99 11.6 0.293 0.220 02 8.7 0.287 0.227 97 ** 4.7 0.147 0.122 99 ** 5.0 0.172 0.143 02 ** 4.9 0.153 0.135 97 . 9.2 0.197 0.272 99 . 5.2 0.181 0.210 02 . 6.5 0.179 0.200 97 . .*** 4.0 0.127 0.139 99 . .*** 3.6 0.117 0.118 02 . .*** 4.0 0.119 0.117 45 97 6.0 0.148 0.203 99 3.7 0.136 0.165 02 4.4 0.147 0.170 97 **** 3.9 0.092 0.126 99 **** 2.5 0.085 0.102 02 **** 2.8 0.088 0.096 : , 77 ( 89!) , ( 2000.), . * , ; ** « » ; *** « » 2002 . 1999 1997 . ; **** « », N. Kakwani , . 1. : , ; ; 1997-2002. 3.3: 12 12 , 1999 2002 . 130,00 120,000 110,00 .9991, 100,00 90,00 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00020,00 10,00 - . - . . . . . )( 1999 2002 : ; (1999) , 1999 . : . 3.11 1998 . . 3.4. 1999 . x ( ), 1999-2002 y. , , x y. ; , , ( ), . , .. . . , , , , , . , 1999 2002 . 46 3.4: , 1999-2002, ( ) ( ). %,2002-9991,.20 30% 18 16 25% 14 12 20% 10 8 15% 6 4 2002-9991 10% 2 0 5% 1,000 10,000 100,000 10,000 100,000 . (log), 1999 1,000 ., (log) 1999 : - . : (), . 3.1 3.12 . . , (. 3.1.) 3.1: 2002 . (2002) . , . , «-» . , , « ». , , . , , , . 13.032 8,4 . 34.803 10 . , «» . : , -, , ­ .. . , .. , . «-», , . , ­ ( 1989 2002 50 %), . , , , ­ . : Helenyak, T. "The 2002 Census in Russia: Preliminary Results//" Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2003, 44, No. 6. 47 3.13 1999-2002 . 3.2 . () , « »: , , , . (Theil index, . 3.1 ). , , 3.2.­ - 1999 2002, 1997 1999.15 3.14 , , . 3.2 , 2002 9 , , , 91 . 3.3 , ( ) . 3.15 , - . , , , . Shorroks Wan (2003) 13 - , , ­ . (. Ravallion, 2004, Kanbur, 2003), , , . , . (. Commander and Yemtsov, 1995) , (. Fedorov, 2002 and Dolynskaya, 2002). , , , , , , ­ . ( , . 3.1 ). . 3.2 , , . 15 , , , : RLMS. 1998- 2002 . ( « »). , , , Yemtsov (2003) Commander et al. (1999), : . , , . , . 48 3.2: ( ), 1997-2002 A. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0.412 0.392 0.386 0.392 0.389 0.388 (Theil inequality) 0.291 0.264 0.256 0.263 0.258 0.256 : 0.032 0.028 0.023 0.027 0.026 0.023 11% 11% 9% 10% 10% 9% 0.260 0.235 0.233 0.236 0.232 0.233 89% 89% 91% 90% 90% 91% B. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0.346 0.361 0.340 0.330 0.331 0.330 (Theil inequality) 0.205 0.221 0.199 0.185 0.186 0.183 : 0.029 0.030 0.017 0.014 0.018 0.016 14% 14% 8% 8% 10% 9% 0.176 0.191 0.182 0.171 0.168 0.167 86% 86% 92% 92% 90% 91% : « », « », N. Kakwani. : , 1997-2002. 3.16 , . , , , . , . 1999-2002 . , , . , : . , , , .. , , . B. - , «» . , , . 49 3.17 . 3.2 , 2002 . 3,1 55,6 , 18 ( , . 1). , , 7 87 , .. 12 . 3.18 . . , - . 3.7 3.8 ( ) : . 3.19 ; . 3.5 , ( ) . 2002 . 30 , 1 30 . , . 3.20 , . . 3.6, ( ) 2002 . 2 11. . (. Commander and Yemtsov (1995)), , , . 3.5: 3.6: , 2002 , 2002 35 9 30 ) 25 ( 20 15 10 5 ,.8 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 1 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% ( ) ( ) : . 3.5. ( ). . . 3.6. G ( ). . . () . 50 3.21 , . , , - . , 3.22 , «» - . , , . , , , . , - . (. 3.7). , , ( ). , () (). , 1999 2002 . 3.7, 50 1999 2002 . , . , ( ), , , . , 1999 . , 2002. , , «» . 3.7: : 1999, 2002 , 100% 75% 1999 . 50% , 2002 , 1999 2002 25% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% ( . ) : () , A3.1. . 3.23 , . . 3.8 . , 51 : . 3.24 , . y . 3.9 , , x­ , . : . , A3.3 , () , - : 0,4 0,24. , , , . , , , , , . , , , . 3.25 , . , . , , , . 3.8: 3.9: , 2002 , 2002 60% 60% )(50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2002,)(50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 1 10 100 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 2002, 2002 : . 3.8. () A3.2 A3.3. . . . () . . 3.9 (- ) A3.1 A3.2. . . () . 52 C. 88 , . ( , ) , , , . 3.26 , , , , . ( ) ( ), , 2002 . 4 ( 10 45 ). , , , . , , , . 3.27 , , , . : . , , .., , , . . , . , ( ) . 3.28 , . . : , , (). 3.29 . , , . 3.10 . ( ), () (). 16: ( ) (, 0 ) (55 , ). . : , 100 . (i) ; (ii) , .. 16 ( , ) . 53 . 3.10 : . 3.10: (-), 2002 2002: 0.6 100% 90 0.5 80% 0.4 70% 60% 50% 0.3 . . 40% . 0.2 30% 20% 0.1 10% 0% 0 Rich<---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------> Poor : (), A3.1. . 3.30 . (80 ) ­ , ; . , .17 . 3.11 . 3.10. , , , . , , , , , . 3.31 . ; , - . . , , . , , : , . 17 . , ( ), , . , , , , ( ). , ( ). 54 3.11: 2002: p , 2002 0.7 100% 0.6 80% 0.5 0.4 . 1 60% 2>= . 0.3 2>= .40% 1. 0.2 20% 0.1 0 0% Rich<------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->Poor Rich<-------------------------------------------------------------------->Poor () () : (), A3.1. . 3.32 , . , ­ . 0,5 60 . ( ), , , . 3.33 . , , , (, ) . , , . , , , , . . D. , : a. , , , . , . , , . b. , . . 55 c. , , . d. , , , . "" . , . 56 II. (1992-1998 .) , , 40 . , , . 1998 . . 7,4 1999- 2003 . , , . , , , , 2002 . , . , . 4 . , , , . ( , ) . , , , ( ) . , . , . , , , , , , , . 5 . 1998 . . , , 1999 . 57 . 6 : (i) ? (ii) , , ? (iii) ? , , , 1997 1999 ., 1999 2002 . 1999 . , . , , , , , . , , (1999-2002 .), 18,7 . 11,8 , 7 ­ . , , . , . . - , 2007 . -, , , - . -, . III . 58 4. 1998 , . , . , . , , - . , . , , , , . A. 1999-2003 . 4.1 , 1998 , . 1999 2003 . 37,5 , , 2004 . 4 - 5 . (. 4.1). 84 1998 . 12 2003 . ­ . 1,6 2003 . 0,5 2004 . , , , , 8,3 2003 . , , 77 . . 2003 . ( 1998 . 12 . . ). 59 4.1: , , 1997-2003 ., % 140 130 120 110 100 90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : , 4.2 , , , 1998 . 39,5 ( 4.2 ). , : 49 , 70 . 4.2: 1990-98 ., 1991=100 100 90 80 70 60 / 50 40 30 20 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 : . , . 4.3 , . , «» ­ , , ­ . (. 4.3 ). , . , , 1998 ., . 60 4.3: , 1999-2003 ., 1997=100 160 150 140 - 130 / 120 110 100 90 80 70 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : 4.4 . 2001 . ( , ), 1997 . , , . , , , , , , . , . 4.5 . , , , . 4.4 - , , , , .18 2002 ., , . , , . , , - , , , . 18 , - , , - ; , , , . 61 4.4: 15 12 9 6 3 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Resource Industries Manufacturing Industries : : - , ­ 4.6 . , . ­ « », ( ) . , ­ , ­ . , ­ , , ­ , 12 .19 , 20 , , , 1 . , . 4.7 1998 . - . 1998 ., 0,7 23 (. . 4.5: , ). 19 , 25 , 9 . 62 4.5: 4.6: , 1998 . 1999-2001 . -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 : 4.8 , . , . , 1999-2001 ., 7.4 , 10 , . (. . 4.6). , 1998 . 1999-2001 ., , 1998 . 4.1: 1998 . 1999-2001 . 10 10 10 10 1998 . 1998 . 1999-2001 . 1999-2001 . , -23% ,- -2% , 7.1% , 18% , -22% , , 5.7% -, 14% 0.4% , -19% -, 0.5% -, 2.1% , 14% , -17% , 1.5% , 2% , 12% , -14% , 3% , 1.9% -, 12% , -14% , 3.3% , 1.2% , 12% , -13% , , 0.7% , 12% 3.4% , - 13% , 3.5% -, 0.5% , 12% , - 13% , 3.6% -, 0% , 12% , -12% , 3.6% , -0.7% , 11% : 4.9 4.1, ( ) 1998 ., 1999-2001 . (), 1998 ., 1999-2001 . , 1998 . ( ), 1999-2001 . : 63 1998, 1999-2001 . (, - ) , . B. «» 4.10 , , . , . , , (. 4.7.) 4.7: - ( LCU, ) 120 115 1997 1996 110 1998 1993 105 100 1997 95 1996 90 85 1996 : (2003), : , .. 7. 4.11 , : · . , ( , ). · . , . · ( 1999 .) , , , ( 40 ). · - , () () . 64 , , . 4.12 ( ) . , , , . 4.13 . , , . . 4.8 () , (). 40 1998 . 50 1998 . 1999 . ( 1998 .). , 2003 . , . 2003 . 25 , ­ 20 , 1998 . . 4.8: 1997-2003 ., 1997=100 220 200 -98 180 160 140 120 100 -98 80 60 40 - 79 79 79 79 89 89 89 99 99 99 99 00 00 00 00 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 30 30 30 : 4.14 , , . . , ­ () () ­ (. . 4.9). 1998 . 2003 . 15 20 ­ . 65 4.9: 1997-2003 ., % 75 65 55 45 35 ( . .) (...) : , 4.15 . 1999 2000 . ­ , (. 4.2). 10,3 . 1998 . 24 . 2003 . , , 5 . 4.2: 1998-2003 . 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 , . 10.3 15.2 24.0 20.9 21.0 24.0 , % 50 60 -12 0 14 : 4.16 , , . ­ ­ , . 2002 . 78 , 57 . 60 , , , , . , 1 0,35 , ­ 0,45 . 4.17 1998 . , , , , . , , . , , , , . , , (. 4.1 ). 66 4.18 1999 . 2002 . (Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS)), 1999 2002 . , 1999 2002 . (. . 4.10). , , ­ , , , , . , "" . , . , , . ­ , , , ­ , . 4.1: 2000-2003 . , , : · ( 13- , 35 24 , , 35.6 , 5- ..). · , . · , . · ( , 2003 . ­ ). · , . · , . · , . · , ( , , ) . · , . · , , : , , , , ­ . · - , - . 67 4.10: 1999 2002 . 4 1= 3 2= 2 1 3= 4= Russia99 Russia02 : 4.19 , , : , , . , . , , . 1997 2000 . 24,1 14,5 , 20 2002 . (. 4.3). 2002 . - 57 ( , ). , 4.3 , , . . , , , . 4.3: , 1997-2002 (% ) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 4.6% 3.6% 3.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 16.0% 13.3% 9.7% 8.9% 10.9% 12.6% , . 24.10% 20.30% 15.60% 14.50% 16.90% 19.70% 4.20 , 2 2007 . - 2004-07 ., 2003 . : 68 · . · , ( - ). · . · , ( ), . · , , , . · - , . 4.21 , ­ , . . C. 4.22 : , , , , ­ ? , , . , , : · : , , . , . · : , , . , , ­ . , , 7 - 8 , . 4.23 , , , . , . , ­ 69 , ­ , . . (.. ) (.. , , ). : · , , . ( , , - ) . · , , . · , , , . · ( 2005 .), . 4.24 , . III ­ - , ­ , , . 70 5. , 1998 . , , . , . , , . , . . , . . , 1999 . . , . , , , , . 5.1 , 1997 . 2002 .. . A. 5.2 . , 1998 ., , , , . , . ( ). 1998 . 1999 . 4,6 . , , . , , 2,7 . , 4,2 , 1999 . 2002 . ( 5.1). 71 5.3 . ( ) 1998 . 13,2 , 8,6 2002 . ( 5.2). 5.1: , 1992-2002 . 1992 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (. ) 71.1 60.0 58.4 63.1 64.5 64.7 65.8 37.1 31.6 30.6 32.8 33.4 33.4 33.6 33.9 28.5 27.9 30.2 31.1 31.2 32.2 (. ) 3.9 8.1 8.9 9.1 7.0 6.3 6.2 2.0 4.4 4.8 4.8 3.8 3.4 3.3 1.9 3.7 4.1 4.3 3.2 2.9 2.8 :1 1999 ., , . : , « », (2003), . 76. : 15 72 . 5.2: , 1997-2002 . 1992 1997 1998 1999 1 2000 2001 2002 (%) 5.2 11.8 13.2 12.6 9.8 8.9 8.6 5.2 12.2 13.5 12.8 10.2 9.3 9.0 5.2 11.5 12.9 12.4 9.4 8.5 8.1 1 1999 ., , . : , « », (2003), . 76. : 15 72 . 5.4 100 , 1992 .. 5.3 , , , 1999 . 2000 . . . ( , ) , (. ). 5.3: , 1985-2000 . 1985-92 0.87 3.94 4.81 -3.06 1992-96 2.09 11.23 13.32 -9.15 1997-98 2.28 9.37 11.65 -7.1 1998-99 4.07 7.28 11.35 -3.21 1999-00 6.07 4.66 10.73 1.41 : Brown and Earle, (2002), Table 1, pg. 42 ( ). 5.5 . , 100 . 2001 . 2002 . 31 100 . , 67,5 72 1998 . 62,9 2002 ., ( 44,7 37,3 ), ( 74,2 66,8 ). - , , , . 5.6 . , , 5,2 , 3,4 , 10,2 (, , ), 3,4 , , , , (Poletaev, 2003). 5.7 . 1990- . ( 5.4). , , . , (Poletaev, 2003, World Bank 2004). 5.4: , 1992-2002 ., % 1992 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 68.9 40.0 38.1 38.2 37.9 37.4 36.9 19.5 39.9 43.2 44.3 46.1 47.6 49.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 10.5 18.3 16.4 14.9 12.5 11.6 10.7 0.3 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 , : , « », (2003), . 77. 5.8 ( 5.1). 20- 1988-96 . 1690 1997 . 1736 2002 .. ( 1548 1999 . 1672 2002 .). ( 80 ), (20 ) (Poletaev, 2003, p.18). 73 5.1: 1760 1740 1720 1700 1680 1660 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : , 5.9 , , . 1995 . 1999 . , , 134 . 95 . . , , 193 . 2002 .. , ( , ) 4 . B. , 1999 ., 5.10 . 1999 . 2002 . 4,1 , . , , (, ), , , , (, , , ). 5.5 : (i) , ; (ii) . 1999-2002 . 6,2 , 2 4,1 ­ . , , . , 17 . 74 5.5: : 1990-2000 . ( ) - - : 1999-2002 1.3 0.7 2.0 6.2 4.1 1999 0.7 2.2 2.9 5.8 2.8 2000 0.9 0.7 1.6 9.9 8.1 2001 1.4 0.2 1.6 4.7 3.0 2002 2.1 ­0.2 2.0 4.5 2.5 : Poletaev (2003), pg. 22. 5.11 . , ­ , . 5.2 . , , , 1998 . . 1998-2002 . 24,7 , 67,2 ­ , 12,8 ­ , 4,2 ­ . , . , , , , . 5.2: , 1990-2000. 250 200 .0002. + 150 / + 100 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 : World Bank (2004), Transition Meets Development, Fig. III.3.2 (p. 79). C. 5.12 , . 1999 . ( 5.6). 1990- 1999 .. 1999 . 2002 . , , , . (RLMS) , 1999 . , . 1998 . 2001 . 75 . 5.6: , 1997-2002 . ( 1991 .) 1997 291 1998 253 1999 197 2000 238 2001 286 2002 320 : , « » (2003), .106 5.13 . , , , ( 5.3) , 2000 .. . , , , , (. 5.4). 5.3: , , 1997- 2003 . , 1996=100 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 . : ; . 5.14 . , , . . , , (. 5.4). 1998 . , (, , ), , . , 76 . , . , ( 1998 . 39 ), . 5.15 . 2002 . . , , , . , , , « », . , , , . , , , 2000 - 2002 .. 5.4: , 1997-2002 . Indices, 1996=100 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Real hourly rate in Industry, Index Productivity of 1 hour Index Hours worked per worker Index Average real monthly salary in Industy per worker - Index Number of emloyees in Industry Index : ; . : : . /., 1 , 1 ., . /. 1 ., 5.16 . 1997-2002 . (. , A5.1) . , , ( , , ) , ( ). A5.1 . , , , , , . 5.17 . 1999 ., , , ( 5.5). 77 ( , , ). 5.5: , , , 1995-2003 . ). 90000 140 /, ( 1998), 8991 80000 120 . 70000 .( 100 60000 50000 80 40000 60 .sht . / 30000 40 20000 10000 20 0 0 - 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 . - /, : : , « », (2003), . 445. 5.18 , 1998 . , 2000-2001 . . 5.6 ( (RLMS)). , ( ) , 65 , 1999 . (Sabirianova, 2003). 5.6: , 1994-2000 . . 30 , . 20 . 10 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 . . . . . . . : Grishina, (2003), Graph 2 5.19 1990- . , 8 1996 . 11 2000 .. , . , 12,5 2000 ., , 1994 . 6 (Sabirianova, 2003). ( RLMS) 0,2-0,3 1998 . 2000 . 2001 . (Lukyanova, 2003). , 78 , . . , , , 1998 ., 2000 . 2001 .. , 2000 . 2001 . .20 (. 2, ) ( 5.1). 5.1: 29 1995 . 37 2000 .. (Fakhrutdinova, 2002) , , , , , 47-61 (. 5.7, ). , . - , , . , , 1995-2000 . 53-39 , . 5.7: 1995 1996 1998 2000 , . 0.2558 100 0.2713 100 0.2435 100 0.3167 100 , - 29 31 27 37 0.1434 56.05 0.1544 56.91 0.1367 56.15 0.1924 60.76 : -0.0191 -7.47 -0.0307 -11.32 -0.0236 -9.69 -0.0507 -16.01 0.0803 31.39 0.0784 28.90 0.0718 29.49 0.1183 37.36 0.0815 31.86 0.1021 37.63 0.0801 32.90 0.1033 32.62 -0.0102 -3.99 -0.0008 -0.29 -0.0004 -0.16 -0.0016 -0.51 0.0109 4.26 0.0054 1.99 0.0088 3.61 0.0231 7.29 0.1124 43.95 0.1169 43.09 0.1068 43.85 0.1243 39.24 : Fakhrutdinova (2002), Table 2, p.19, RLMS. 20 . Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, 1992-2001 , "Monitoring Economic Conditions in the Russian Federation," University of North Carolina, April 2002, p. 4 and p. 9. 79 D. 5.20 , . . . , (Kapeljushnikov 2002). ( ) 37 . 5.21 , , . 5.8, 44 , 11,5 . , 25 8 . . « » « », . 5.7 . 2000-2002 . 2002 . 1997 . . . 5.8: , 2000 . , 48.5 39.9 14.5 18.4 (13.3) 43.9 11.4 15.8 36.2 24.6 8.2 14.3 (4.1) 15.0 3.5 7.3 15.3 29.4 10.5 18.8 / 100 32.6 11.6 17.0 . : 2/3 ; : 1/3 . : Klugman et al. (2002), p.30 ( RLMS). 5.22 , , , . , ­ , , . , . 80 , . , , 1990- ., , , , . , . , , , - , . E. 5.23 . . , . , . 5.24 , , . , , , , . , « » , , . , - . 5.25 , . (Gimpelson et al. (2003) , , , , . , . 5.26 , , . , . , , . , , , , . , . , , . 5.27 , , . (Gimpelson et.al. 2003) 300 . , 26 , , 36 , , - . , 81 , , . , 24 , , 70 , , 5 , . : , , 18 , . - . 5.28 : , . , . 5.29 . , . . 23 1990 . 5 1999 .. , , 2002 . ( 5.7). 5.7: 1.2 1 0.8 Minimum wage 0.6 Min wage tariff 0.4 0.2 0 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : , « », (2003), . 99. : - , - 5.30 . (Kapeljushnikov (2003) , , , , , . , (34 ), (45 ). 5.31 . , . , 82 , . . . 83 6., : (i) (ii) , . . 1999 . , , , , , , . , , 1997 . 2002 . , . . , , . . A. , 1997-2002 . 1999 . 6.1 , 1997 1999 ., 1999 2002 .21 Table 6.1 1997-2002 ., . (1997-1999) . . 2002 5 , 1997 . 21, , , 1, (derived poverty line) . (in-kind consumption expenditures). , , . , , .. . , . 84 6.2 . , , , . , . , 6.1, . , 1997 1999 . , . 6.1: , 2002 ., 1997-2002 .. . . . Food 1997 1107 909 2016 54,9 1998 1111 716 1827 60,8 1999 893 578 1471 60,7 2000 916 673 1588 57,6 2001 1031 847 1877 54,9 2002 1084 1036 2120 51,1 , 1997 100 100 100 100,0 1998 100 79 91 110,7 1999 81 64 73 110,6 2000 83 74 79 105,0 2001 93 93 93 100,0 2002 98 114 105 93,1 1998 0,3 -21,2 -9,4 1999 -19,6 -19,3 -19,5 2000 2,5 16,5 8,0 2001 12,6 25,8 18,2 2002 5,1 22,4 12,9 : 1997-2002 .. 6.3 . 1997-1998 . , . 6.1 , . 1997 1998 . , , . , , , 1998 1999 ., . 85 6.1: , 1997-1999 . Growth incidence curve 1997-1998 Growth incidence curve 1998-1999 ) %(atipacrep 6- ) %( - 21 8- atipacrep 41- noitp musnoclaer -21- 01 noitp musnoclaer -81- 61 ni htworglaunnA 41- 61- nihtworglaunnA 02- 22- 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 The poorest p% of population ranked by per capita real consumption The poorest p% of population ranked by per capita real consumption 6.4 1999-2002 . 1999-2002 .. , , . , , (. 6.2). . 6.2: ) %(18 16 14 12 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 , . 6.5 , 1997 1999 . (. 6.2). 1997-1999 ., . , , 24,1 41,5 . 25 2 ! . (severity index), , , , , 1997-99 . , . 86 6.2: 1997 24,1 7,0 3,0 1998 31,4 9,7 4,3 1999 41,5 14,1 6,6 2000 35,9 11,3 5,1 2001 26,2 7,5 3,2 2002 19,6 5,1 2,0 6.6 1999 . 2002 . . 1997-1999 .. 1999-2002 .. (. 6.2). , . 41,5 1999 19,6 2002. , 32 . , (poverty gap index) , , ( 6.3). , , . 2002 1997 . 6.3: 250 200 . . 150 . 100 50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : 6.7 1998 . 1999 , , . . 1998 , 1999 . , 5.6 (. 5) , 1999, 1998 . (1998 ) (1999 ) . 6.8 , 1997-2002 ., , , , « ». 6.3 , , 87 , 1. , « », , . , 2000-2002 . 2000 « », « », 1992 . « », 2000 , , 1992 , (1997-1999 . 2000-2002 .) . , 1997 1999 . , « », , 12,3 1997 1999 , 15 1999-2002 . , , , . , , , , , , ( ). , , 1 1056 . , 3,54 . , . 6.3: , , 1997-2002 . 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (% ) 20,7 23,3 28,3 28,9 27,3 24,2 24,1 31,4 41,5 35,9 26,2 19,6 1,075 . 1,0 1,6 2,7 1,8 1,0 0,5 2,150 . 8,0 11,6 16,4 12,8 8,6 6,3 4,300 . 34,4 42,9 51,9 46,5 38,4 33,0 (.) 30,3 34,0 41,2 41,9 39,4 35,8 35,3 45,8 60,5 52,1 37,8 28,1 1,075 . 1,5 2,4 4,0 2,6 1,5 0,7 2,150 . 11,6 16,9 23,9 18,5 12,4 9,0 4,300 . 50,4 62,6 75,6 67,4 55,5 47,3 1: « » 2000 . 2: « » 2000 , . 6.9 , . , . 6.10 , 1999 2002 , , . 1998 . . ( ). , , . 1999 . 2000 88 , . 2000-2002 . , . , , 20 , (. 6.4 6.5). 6, 4 1998 . 7,2 2002 . (. 6.4). , , . 6.4: : 2- 3- 4- 5- 1- 1997 37,0 6,5 11,3 16,0 1997 37,0 1998 39,2 6,1 10,7 15,4 1998 39,2 1999 37,3 6,3 11,1 15,9 1999 37,3 2000 36,3 6,6 11,4 16,1 2000 36,3 2001 36,8 6,6 11,3 15,9 2001 36,8 2002 36,8 6,7 11,3 15,7 2002 36,8 1997 36,1 6,7 11,6 16,2 22,6 43,0 1998 37,5 6,4 11,1 15,8 22,4 44,2 1999 35,5 6,6 11,5 16,4 23,2 42,2 2000 34,2 7,0 11,9 16,6 23,2 41,3 2001 34,5 7,0 11,8 16,4 23,0 41,7 2002 34,4 7,2 11,8 16,3 23,0 41,8 1997 34,6 7,0 11,9 16,6 22,7 41,8 1998 36,1 6,7 11,5 16,1 22,6 43,0 1999 34,0 6,9 11,9 16,8 23,4 41,0 2000 33,0 7,2 12,2 16,9 23,4 40,3 2001 33,1 7,3 12,2 16,8 23,2 40,5 2002 33,0 7,5 12,2 16,6 23,1 40,6 : ­ , . «» - , « ». 89 6.4: , , 1997-2002 . 40 39 38 37 36 l 35 34 33 32 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 6.5: , 20 % , 1997-2002 . 8 7.5 7 . 6.5 6 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 , 6.11 : , , , . , . , . , , . , , , . . 6.12 , . 30,1 1998 , 21,5 90 8,7 (. 6.5). , 21,5 . , ( ). 6.13 1999 , . 32,2 1999 . , 38,9 . , , , 6,7 . . 6.5: , , 1998-2002 .. 1998 21,5 8,7 30,1 1999 38,9 -6,7 32,2 2000 -11,3 -2,2 -13,4 2001 -27,3 0,1 -27,1 2002 -24,4 -0,7 -25,1 1997-02 -11,8 -7,0 -18,7 1998 27,2 10,6 37,8 1999 53,2 -8,2 45,1 2000 -14,0 -5,7 -19,7 2001 -32,4 -1,4 -33,8 2002 -27,3 -4,4 -31,6 1997-02 -13,1 -14,3 -27,4 1998 30,6 11,7 42,4 1999 62,8 -8,5 54,3 2000 -15,6 -8,2 -23,8 2001 -35,2 -2,4 -37,6 2002 -28,7 -7,7 -36,5 1997-02 -13,7 -19,9 -33,6 6.14 1997 2002 18,7 , 11,8 , 7 . , . 91 B. 6.15 1999 , . 1997 28 , . (. 6.6). 1997 . 2002 . . 2002 38 , . , , , « », - « ». (Theil's decomposition) , 2,8 1997 2,2 1999 (. 6.7). . , , , , , . , , , . 6.6: 1997 199 - 156 - 1998 180 -9,4 141 -9,4 1999 145 -19,6 117 -17,0 2000 158 8,7 123 5,3 2001 189 19,5 141 14,4 2002 215 13,9 155 9,8 6.7: 1997 19,3 21,9 20,5 0,6 2,8 1998 21,5 21,6 22,1 0,6 2,6 1999 20,0 17,8 19,9 0,4 2,2 2000 18,3 16,9 18,5 0,6 3,2 2001 18,3 16,3 18,6 0,8 4,3 2002 17,8 15,9 18,3 1,0 5,5 6.16 . , . : , ( , ). , (. 6.8). , 2002 92 , , 1997- 2002 . : . , , 4,3 4,8 ­ , . 6.8: 0-6 7-15 1997 23,9 22,8 17,9 33,6 29,9 24,2 1998 31,5 29,6 25,4 41,0 38,4 31,4 1999 40,6 39,8 37,7 49,8 48,8 41,6 2000 35,0 33,9 32,5 42,6 43,9 35,9 2001 25,6 24,8 21,5 32,5 33,7 26,2 2002 19,4 18,3 15,1 26,2 26,8 19,6 1998 31,9 29,7 42,0 22,1 28,3 29,9 1999 29,0 34,3 48,5 21,6 27,2 32,3 2000 -13,8 -14,7 -13,7 -14,4 -10,0 -13,6 2001 -26,8 -26,9 -33,8 -23,8 -23,2 -27,1 2002 -24,5 -26,3 -29,8 -19,4 -20,4 -25,1 1997-02 -4,1 -4,3 -3,3 -4,8 -2,1 -4,1 C. - , 6.17 2002-2007 .. ­ , , . . , (. 4). 6.18 , , . , 1999 2002 , . , , , . , 5 3 30 , 2 , 15 . 6.6 , , 2002 . , 19,6 2002 . 3 , 13,4 2007 . 4 , 40 2007 11,7 . 2002 2007 , 5 . , , 10,2 2007 . 93 , , 2002 ( 6.7). 6.6: , 2002-2008 .. (P0 1997 . 100%) 110.0 100.0 90.0 5% 80.0 4% 70.0 3% 60.0 50.0 40.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 6.7: 5% , 2002-2008 . 6.7: 5% , 2002-2008 . 6.0 5.0 4.0 Poverty Gap Index 3.0 Poverty Severity Index 2.0 1.0 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 : ­ , ­ . 94 6.19 . , - , , , . , , , . , . 6.20 , 5 , 5 . , 1998 , , . . , . , , . , , , , , . , , , , , 5 , 2007 . 6.21 , . , , . 7 , . , : (1) , ; (2) . III . 95 7. , , : 7 . () , , . , , . , , . . , . , , , , , , . , . - , , . , . , , , . , , , . ( 8.) 7.1 . . 2002 . 50 . , 54 . () (. 7.1). 0,8 1,7 1997 2001 . ( ). , . , 96 , . 7.2 , , ( 4). 7.1: , 1995-2001.. . (. .) . , % 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2 2.5 6.6 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 0.6 0.6 1.5 1 1.7 1.1 0.8 2.6 1.4 1.3 3.7 6.3 4.6 4.9 4.9 2.5 2.4 6.5 11.6 9 8.7 . 4.5 2.3 2.2 2 2 1.7 2.4 10.1 5 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.7 4.6 3.7 4.5 4.9 6.4 7.3 9.3 8.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 4 4.7 5.9 5.1 5.6 6.9 9.2 7.3 24 11.7 3.2 2.2 2.6 3.1 2.4 8.5 4.1 1.2 4.9 11.2 19.7 3.2 28.6 32.8 22.5 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 5.4 5.5 4.5 35.9 40.2 44.2 4.4 38.8 38.4 46.8 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.6 3.9 3.6 4 9.5 9.2 12.8 11.3 11.9 13.3 24.7 3.3 2.8 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 4 : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2002; UNCTAD, World Investment Report, 2001. 7.3 . . , , , . . -, ( 11 , (), , , , . ; ). -, . -, , 22; , -, , . 23 A. 7.4 , , , . , , , , , 22 , , , , , . , , , . 23 , , . , . , , . 97 . , , , , , . , . , . 7.5 , , (). - ( . 7.1) , , , , , . 7.2 . , 7,3 ( 3,4 ). : 24 . 7.2: : (1) (3) (4) (5) 7,3 0,7 1,3 5,3 3,4 0,3 0,6 2,5 (% ) 0,9 1,4 0,8 1,4 ( %) -32,9 8,8 -38,1 11,4 ( %) 2,7 -0,5 2,1 1,2 ( %) 14,5 2,3 8,1 3,7 . ( %) 3,8 0,1 0,5 3,2 . ( %) 5,5 0,6 1,7 3,0 ( %) 1,7 -0,5 1,1 1,1 . , . . 1,3 0,3 1,3 0,3 1,2 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,9 0,5 0,2 0,5 : , . : . 98 7.6 , . 0,7 7,3 (. 7.2). , (), ( ) . , , . . , ; . 7.1 () . , . . 35 : , ( , , , . , . « », 2004 (Jensen, Jesper; Rutherford, Thomas F., and Tarr, David G, "Economy-wide and Sector Effects of Russia's Accession to the WTO," 2004, www.worldbank.org/trade/russia-wto ). , , ; , ; , . , . -. , , . , , . , . , , . , , , . ; . , , : (1) , ; (2) , , ( ) . , , - , , ( ) . , , 99 . , 49 000 . , . , : , , , . . , () , , . , 49 000 . , , , , . 7.7 , . 1,3 . , , . , , . . (1,6 , 7 )24. , . 7.8 . 5,3 , . , , : , . . , , , . , , . 7.9 . . . , . , . " " , 24 ­ ( , ), 11 , , . 100 . , . B. 7.10 , . , . , , , . , . . 25. , , . , , , . 7.11 , , . , , , , , . , , 10 . 7.12 , , , , . , , , , . , , , , . , , . 7.13 , , . , , , . , , . , , 90-98 . , , . 7.14 . ; , . 25 , . , . 101 C. 7.15 , 5,5 , 3,8 , 1,7 . , , . , «» , , ( ). , , 6 . 1,7 . 7.16 «» , , . «» , , . , , , , . , , . , , , . , , , , , . 7.17 , . , , . , . D. 7.18 , . 2 (. 49 00026 7.1). , , . 26 55 531 , 49 239 . , 6 292 , . i i+1, , -, , , . , 55 000 . 102 7.1: ( 49 000 . .) 10 8 6 4 % 2 0 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5 20 22.5 25 . 13 7 25% . 7.19 10 7,8 , 7,3 . (. 7.3 , .) 7.3 , . 10 6,7 , . , , , . . , , , , . 7.20 , , . , 7,2 8,5 . , , . E. 7.21 . ( 0,7 ), , , , , . , 7,8 9,0 (. 7.3). 7.22 , , . , , . , . , , , . , ( ), , . , , 8 . 7.23 20-30 , , , , , . , « » 20-30 , . , , ; , , ; , , . , , ( ) , , . , . , , ( ) . 104 7.3: , ( ) ( - - - - ) b/ a/ (2) (1) (3) (4) (5) 1 (0-10%) ­ 9,0 7,8 0,9 1,0 5,8 . 8,5 7,2 0,8 0,8 5,6 . 9,5 8,5 1,0 1,3 6,1 2 (11-20%) ­ 8,4 7,7 7,7 1,1 5,7 . 7,6 6,9 0,8 0,8 5,3 . 9,0 8,3 1,0 1,3 6,0 3 (21-30%) ­ 8,3 7,9 7,9 1,2 5,7 . 7,3 6,8 0,8 0,8 5,2 . 8,8 8,4 1,0 1,4 5,9 4 (31-40%) ­ 8,1 7,9 7,9 1,2 5,7 . 7,1 6,8 0,8 0,8 5,2 . 8,6 8,3 1,0 1,4 5,8 5 (41-50%) ­ 8,0 7,8 7,8 1,2 5,6 . 6,8 6,6 0,7 0,8 5,0 . 8,4 8,2 0,9 1,4 5,8 6 (51-60%) ­ 7,7 7,6 7,6 1,3 5,5 . 6,4 6,3 0,6 0,8 4,9 . 8,2 8,1 0,9 1,4 5,7 7 (61-70%) ­ 7,6 7,6 7,6 1,3 5,5 . 6,4 6,4 0,6 0,8 4,9 . 7,9 7,9 0,8 1,4 5,6 8 (71-80%) ­ 7,5 7,6 7,6 1,4 5,4 . 6,1 6,2 0,6 0,8 4,7 . 7,9 7,9 0,8 1,5 5,5 9 (81-90%) ­ 7,1 7,2 7,2 1,3 5,3 . 6,0 6,2 0,5 0,8 4,9 . 7,2 7,4 0,6 1,4 5,3 10 (91-100%) ­ 6,4 6,7 6,7 1,3 5,0 . 5,3 5,6 0,3 0,9 4,4 . 6,4 6,8 0,4 1,3 5,0 a/ 10 . 1 . b/ 1. . : . 105 III. , , , , . , , , , . ­ - , , . , , 2004 , , . . , , . 8 , . , , - , , . : (i) - , , ; (ii) , , , «» , , ; (iii) , , , , . , (i) , (ii) , . , , , . , . 106 , . , , . 9 , , . , , . , . , . 10 , , . , : (1) , , (2) . (i) ; (ii) , ; (iii) ; (iv) . 11 . , . , , - , . , - , . , . - . , . , 107 , , , . 108 8. , . , . B C , . , , - , , . : (i) - , , ; (ii) , , , «» , , ; (iii) , , , , . , (i) , (ii) , . , , , . , . , , . A. 8.1 , , . , , , , , , . 109 79 27. , . , , , 41 . , , . , , . 4,4 , 7,6 . 8.2 , . , , , , . , , , , . 8.1 , , , . 8.3 2002. 12,6 ( 8.1 8.1). , ., , ­ ( - , , ).-2 ., 14,6, ,, (7,1). 8.4 ( ) . ( ) ( ), : , . 2002 . 8,7 ( 8.1). , , , ( ) (, , ). 27 , , , ( , , , ) ( , ). 110 8.1: 2002 . 2002 . 6,3% 2,4% 0,0% , 2,3% 0,1% 0,2% 1,3% , 12,6% , , - 2,0% , 14,6% : 8.1: ? , (Morozov, 2004). , , , , , , , - . , , . , , , . , . , , , . , - , - . - . , , . , , , .. , - . , 2002 . , , 1-2 . . . : , , . (, ), (, ), (, ) - , , . , , . , . - . , . , 2002 . 12,6 . , . 111 . , , . , , , . , . , , , « », , , , 1990- ., « ». . , : (1997-2002 .) (2003 .). 8.5 , , 5,9 , 3,9 , 2 - . , , : · . (, , , , , ), ( ) ( , , , , ). . , , , . . , , ( 8.2): / , - ; , , , , , , , . , , . , 47 . , - 2002 . 4,3 . - (2,9 ).28 27 , , , , 28 - 2,3 . , 0,6 , , , (- ). 112 , , . , 45 . 8.2: (% , 3 ) % % . . 20% 29,7 57% 43% 100% 11% 15,8 52% 48% 100% 9% 12,6 29% 71% 100% 20% 29,0 61% 39% 100% 1% 1,5 34% 66% 100% 2% 2,9 53% 47% 100% , 27% 145,3 53% 47% 100% ( ), . ** . : 2003. · , . : (i) ; (ii) - (); (iii) , 29. 2002 ., 0,4 , 0,2 , 0,1 ­ 0,1 30. · . 1,3 . (, 0,5 31) ( 0,5 ). 8.6 , , , , , , , , . 8.7 . 29 , « » . 2003 , (i) , (8,8% ); (ii) (3,2% ) (iii) (7% ). 30 (, 2003) , , . 31. «: : 90- », (Russian Federation: Child Welfare Outcomes during the 1990s: The Case of Russia), World Bank Report No. 24450-RU, 2002 113 , , , . 55 , , (51 ) (. 8.3). , , , , 45 32 42 , , . , , (32 ), , (11 ), - (6 ). 8.3: , 2003 . ( - , , %) , 79% . , 55% 51% 5% 2% . , 42% 32% 6% 11% . (), 45% 25% 32% : , 2003 8.8 . , ; 12,9 , 27,1 , 2003 ( 8.4). ­ . ­ ­ 2,8 3,4 . 32 . , , - 32% (. 8.3) 41% (. Hamilton, Banerjee and Lomaia, 2004, "Exploring Housing Subsidies for Households in Russia", World Bank, mimeo). 114 8.4: , 19,6% 41,0% , 15,2% 33,4% 12,9% 27,1% 2,1% 5,4% 0,2% 0,8% , 1,6% 4,2% 0,5% 2,0% 0,5% 0,8% 0,3% 1,0% 0,2% 0,3% , 2,8% 3,4% 1,0% 1,0% 1,8% 2,4% 100% 100% : 2003 . 8.9 , , , . , , , , ( ), . , , 1,6 4,2 . , , . 8.10 ? , , , , . , . , . 8.11 , 47 . 8.5 2002 . . ­ 28 , , 19 . (90 ) , , , . , , . 0,9 , 2 . , , , , . 115 8.12 , 9,4 , , . 46,79 . , , , 2464 . , , ( ). 2002 , 747 , ( ) 1009 . , , , 2464 , , 262 . , , , . 8.5: (: ) (.) . ./. 28,1 43,2 15,1 2568 28,1 29,6 1,5 2434 28,1 28,8 0,7 1813 28,1 28,3 0,1 1960 28,1 28,3 0,2 2200 18 28,1 29,1 0,9 1564 28,1 28,3 0,1 2164 28,1 28,2 0,1 2032 28,1 28,4 0,2 2274 28,1 47,1 19,0 2464 : . : , 2002 . B. , , , 8.13 , , . , , : (i) ; (ii) - ; (iii) , «» , , ; (iv) , , , ; (v) , . 116 8.14 1998 . , , , 1998 . , , , , . , , U: ( % ) 2000-2001 .; , (. 8.6). , . (, , , ) , U. , . , 1998 . . 1997 . 2000 . 10 , , . 8.6: , % , 1997-2002 . 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 40,4% 36,2% 31,1% 30,0% 31,5% 34,6% 4,6% 3,6% 3,0% 2,8% 3,1% 3,9% 1. 3,5% 3,4% 2,9% 2,8% 2,9% 3,2% 2. 16,0% 13,3% 9,7% 8,9% 10,9% 12,6% 3. 16,3% 15,9% 15,5% 15,5% 14,6% 14,9% 4. : , 8.15 , , , , , - . , , , , , . 7 .33 · , - (i) ; (ii) , 33 0,4 , 10 , , (3,9 ) 7 ( - ) , (5,9 ). 117 , , , , ; (iii) , . · , . , (i) , (ii) ( ) , , (iii) - . 8.2: : ? ­ , , ­ , , . 2003 . , , - , , , . , . , 156 , 236 (. , 2001). ( , ) , , , , . , , . (World Bank 2002) , , de jure, 70 , . 2000 . 36 . , , ( , , ), . , 45 , , . , ( 8.1). ( 20 ) ( , ) 7 14 . 20 , , 22 33 . «» , , , , . , , . 118 8.1: ( % , ) Others Spa and holidays Transport Medical Telephone Housing and Utility Services 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Poorest 2 3 4 Richest : , 2003 . ( ): , , , . , , . .- , .- ­ . , . ; , . , ­ , . , , - ( , , , . . ­ , , , , ( ), . ­ , , . , , , . , . , - , ( , ) , . ( ), , ( ) , ( ). , , , , 2003 . , 55,3 . , 119 (, 50 ). 3 155 . . . 17 . : , , 8 , 20 30 . 8.7: - , 1 2 3 4 5 9,2 11,8 12,1 12,2 10,0 55,3 . 17% 21% 22% 22% 18% 100% , . 246 475 732 755 947 3155 8% 15% 23% 24% 30% 100% , 123 146 200 200 303 199 : , , 146 . 291 475 535 551 455 2308 % , 119% 100% 73% 73% 48% 73% : , 2003 . 8.7 - . , ( ) , , 146 ./. 123 303 . . , , 19 , . , , , . , - , , , . 8.16 , , , , - ( 8.8). 30 28 , . , , , . , , , - ( 13 ), - (17 ) - (20 ). , , , , , . ­ 120 60 . , 62 60 . 8.8: ( ) 1 2 3 4 5 , : 26% 23% 21% 18% 13% 100% 30% 24% 20% 16% 11% 100% 20% 25% 25% 18% 11% 100% 28% 22% 20% 17% 12% 100% , 17% 21% 22% 22% 18% 100% 13% 20% 23% 24% 20% 100% 17% 22% 22% 23% 17% 100% : 2003 . 8.2: , 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 : 2003 . 8.17 : . . , 8.2, ( ) , , . , , ( ). , , ( , ). ( - ) , , 80 100 . - . 8.18 « » « » , 121 , . 8.3 , , , , , , , , , . , , , . , , , , , 30 , 40 60 . 8. 3: ( , , ) PROGRESA , , , , , , , , (MOP) , , , - 20 40 60 80 100 , 8.19 , , , , , . , ­ , ( ), (, ). , , , , . , ( , ). , , , . , , . 122 8.20 , , . , , . , , , , , , (. 8.3). 8.3: , , , , , , ( , , , , ..). , , , , , . , ­ , ­ : · , , , « » . , 1998 . . , , . · , . , ( , , , ..). 1998 . 8.21 2003 , .34 , 8.9, , 67 . , ( 8.10). 61 , , , 34- . ­ , / : , , , , . . 123 25 . , , , . 8.9: , 86 33 77 14 67 23 100 100 100 8.10: , , , 11 61 20 2 19 25 20 3 22 10 20 4 23 4 20 24 1 20 100 100 100 C. 8.22 , , , , , 4,3 2002 , , 0,4 . 8.23 . -, . , . , , , , , . : (i) , , , (ii) (, ) ( , ), (iii) . 8.24 . , . : · , . 124 · , , (, ). · «» . · ( ) . , . · . · , . , , . , , , , . · , . 8.25 . , - . 0,2 , : , 1998 . 8.26 , , : · 1998 . , , . · . · . , , . · , . 125 9. - 35 , . , , . , . A. 9.1 - . - . , , . - , , , . . 1992 , - . . - , , , , . , , . ­ 2008 . - () 54 2000 10 1992 ( 9.1)36. 35 « » ("The Distributional Effect of the Transition to Full Cost Coverage and the Introduction of a Housing allowance Program in Russia,"), . 36 2000 (2004). 1992 1997 17483-RU « : - ­ » ("Russian Federation: housing and Utility Services: Policy Priorities for the Next Stage of Reforms") 1998 . 126 9.1: - 1992-2000 60 54 % 50 .40 33 30 20 10 10 0 1992 1997 2000 : = . 9.2 . RLMS ( ) , , , , 1998-99 37. 1995 2001 ( ­ /-), () ( , ). , , , 5 . [ ] Share of HCS as share of total household expenditure, by quintile 15% 10% 5% 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998-99 2000 2001 2002 1 2 3 4 5 9.3 : , , . 9.4 , , - . () , , . (, ) ( ). . 1992 . , , , , 37 , (2004) « , » ("Exploring Housing Subsidies for Households in Russia"), , . 127 , , . , . 1991 2002 10 30 , . , , ­ , 50 , ­ 0 . . 9.5 , 1994 , . , , , ­ 38. . , - ( ) 22 ( ­ ). , 2003 , . () , , ( . 9.1). 9.1: : ( 2008 ) : § 182 ,; § 422, ; § 332, . : . : (, ) , . : > 1: = max{0,exp ­ (0.22 * ) } < : 1: = exp ­ [(0.22 */ )* ] 2: = exp ­ 0.5 * * 38 ( ) . . 1990- . ­ ­ , . , , , . , . 15 30 . , 50 . 128 : , . : . 1 / = ; = ; exp= ; = ; = ; = . 9.6 1997 , . ( 9.1). ( ­ 90 ) - ( ) ( ­ 22 ) . , , . B. - ­ 9.7 - - . - , . -, , , . - , . . , . -, , , . , . . 9.8 , - , . , , . , , 2,3 2002 , , , ( ). , 0,1 . , , , 0,6 - , , ( ). , , 3 . 9.9 , , , , , , . , , 129 . - , , , . , « », , . , . . , , . , , . 9.10 . 32 , 6 (. 9.1). . , , , , , , . 9.1: ( , ) 1 2 3 4 5 6% 6% 8% 8% 6% 4% 32% 26% 35% 35% 36% 28% : . 2003. : (2004). 130 9.2: ­ . , ( ), . - . , , . , , - . , , , . , , , 50 - . , , . ­ . , , . , . , , (. 9.2 ). 9.2: 450 25.0 22.6 387 391 397 407 400 374 367 370 377 378 )( 363 350 20.0 367 349 300 327 329 334 330 336 342 329 344 19.2 15.4 15.0 13.2 250 11.8 13.8 10.2 200 9.1 10.0 11.9 7.9 150 10.4 6.9 8.9 5.8 100 8.0 5.0 6.8 6.0 50 5.1 0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9.11 , , , . 9.3 . , , , , , . , . 131 , , . 9.2 ( ) . , , . . , . 9.3: ( , ) , ( , ) 60 4.0 47 50 49 3.5 45 46 48 3.4 40 41 40 3.0 40 34 33 2.5 30 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 20 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 10 0.5 0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 9.2: 1 8,1 2 6,7 3 7,1 4 9,2 5 9,7 6 10,6 7 11,9 8 11,4 9 12,1 10 13,2 9,7 : 9.12 : . , , , . 9.3 . 132 9.3: A1 . A3 «» 22 . A4 : , , , , , , . B1 : . : ( , ). , , . 9.13 . 1 , 75 ( 9.4). , . ­ 22,6 22,9 ( 9.5). : ( ), ( 9.6)39. , , , (, ). 9.14 . 22- . 2000 0,173 . , , . , , , , . (2) , 0,6 , ­ 0,4 , , ( 9.5 9.6). . ­ 10 ( 9.4). 39 , . , . , . 133 9.4: ( - ) % - . 2000 209,5 185,4 24,1 - - A1 209,5 203,6 5,9 -18,2 -76% A3 (22%) 209,5 187,8 21,7 -2,4 -10% A4 209,5 165,1 44,5 20,4 85% B1 369,7 318,3 51,4 30,0 125% : 9.5: (0) (1) 2000 22,6 6,6 0,350 A1 22,9 6,7 0,350 A3 (22%) 22,8 6,7 0,351 A4 21,0 5,5 0,340 B1 27,0 8,9 0,365 : 9.6: A1 A3 A4 B1 1 -0,07 -0,66 17,1 -17,5 2 -0,30 -0,61 5,5 -10,6 3 -0,56 -0,44 2,6 -9,1 4 -1,01 -0,29 1,2 -7,9 5 -1,09 -0,16 0,6 -7,0 6 -1,17 -0,06 0,3 -6,5 7 -1,14 -0,03 0,1 -5,7 8 -0,91 -0,02 0,1 -4,9 9 -0,77 0,00 0,0 -4,2 10 -0,58 0,00 0,0 -3,5 -0,76 -0,23 2,8 -7,7 : 134 9.15 , , , , , . . , , . , 23 , , . , . , . (3), , , , . , : 85 , 10 , ( 9.4). , , , . , . 17 ( 9.6). 2 ( 9.5). , , , , . 9.16 , - . (1) , , . 54 2000 ; ­ 81 . . , , , , -. ( , ) ( 9.4). , ( ), ( ) . , , , . - , ( 160,2 ), , , . 9.17 . ( 9.6). , , , , . , , , ­ ­ . , , ­ , ­ . , , , , 135 , . , , . 17,7 10,6 , 3,5 ( 9.6). 4,3 ( 9.5). C. 9.18 , , . « ...», 2003 , . , . , . , : , . , , , . 2005 . , : - . 9.19 , , . , , . . , . , , - , . 9.20 . 8 , . 9.21 , . . . , , , , . 2000 , 136 , , . . 9.22 , , , . , 9.1, , . , , , . , , , . 8, . , . 9.23 , , . 137 10. , , . , , . , , , , . , , , . , , , : (i) , ; , (ii) . , . A. 10.1 , , . ( ), , , . , , 100 [ (Rashid and Posarac), 2003 .]. , , , . 10.2 . . 1989 1997 .. 3,6 ., 2010 7,8 . -, . , ( , 1999 .). -, , , , , 138 - . 10.3 , ; .40 2003 . ( ) , ( 7 15 ) 94 - 96 , , . 100 . 90 75 . , , , . , . 10.4 . , , , , , , , . , , , . , , , . , . . . . 10.5 , . 40 1 9 . , , 2003 . ( ); RLMS 2001 2002 . ( ); 2002 .; « : , » (DVO) 2001 . ( ) 2003 . 31 000 6 24 . RLMS , ( 1300 ) . DVO 2001 1520 (, , ); 2003 . 3000 . , (, ). ( , ), / . 139 16 - 17 78 (, 2003 .), , , 89 , , (. 10.1).41 . (. 10.2). 5 16 - 17 , 16 . , 16 16 - 17 ( , ), 7 , 6 () . , 42 18 - 24 17 - .42 10.1: 16-17 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Bulgaria Czech Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Russia Slovenia Rep. : , 2000 .; , 2003 ( 2003 . 2000 . , , ). 41 2000 . , , 16 - 17 . 42 RLMS 2002 . 16 - 17 66 , 18 - 24 - 16 30 2003 . , . , , , . 140 10.2: ( ) 2003 . 120% 100% 80% Non poor 60% Poor 40% 20% 0% 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Age : , 2003; . 10.6 - , (. 10.1). , , . , 15 ; 6 . 22 , 8 . , . RLMS ( ) . 10.1: , 2003 . 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10,0 10,3 10,5 10,8 11,1 11,4 11,5 12,0 12,4 13,0 9,5 9,4 9,3 9,7 9,9 10,2 10,1 10,6 10,9 11,4 10,4 10,9 11,2 11,2 11,5 11,8 11,9 12,3 12,6 13,2 10,4 10,7 11,0 11,1 11,3 11,6 11,8 12,1 12,5 13,0 9,6 10,0 10,3 10,6 11,0 11,3 11,4 11,9 12,3 13,0 : 23 1/. : , 2003 . 10.7 . , , 2001 . 28 000 ., 10 ; - 4 - 5 ( 53 000 . 56 000 . , ). , 97 000 . 70 000 ., , 7 8 , , , . : 22 - 16 . 141 10.8 (. 10.2) . . , 2002 . 83 , , , , , 38 . 2002 . 19,7 , - 4,2 . 70 18 65 , 43,7 , () , 20,5 , . , . , - . 2002 . RLMS , , . 18 25 1,5 , , , 36 64 .43 10.2: , (%) 1,58 3,52 7,06 12,26 10,69 16,8 () 16,85 22,65 6,31 7,81 3,64 3,53 29,14 24,05 3,09 1,28 21,28 8,05 0,34 0,04 100 100 : 23 : 2003 . 10.9 , . RLMS 2002 . 46 , - 2 . , , , . , - , . , ( ), 43 ­ 1,5-1,8 . , . 142 (33,9 31,64 , ), - (9,66 11,62 , ). 10.10 . , , , , , . , , , , , , , . DVO ( : , ), 2001 . , , 40 , , , 15 , , ( ). 44 , . 80 , , , - . , , , . 10.11 . DVO 2001 . 15 - 50 80 . , , , . , , . ( ) 2003 . , 95 , ( 5000 .) 10 . , , - . DVO 2001 . . , - . 10.12 - . , , , , . 80 15000 . , 20 (. . 10.3). , 80 44 DVO . , , , . 143 20 2500 . . , . 10.3: 2003 . 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Poor 10% 0% Non poor <2500 2500-50500 000-7500500-100000 7 1 000-125500 12 00-15000000 >15 : , 2003 .; 10.13 , . , 40 2000 . , 60 . 10.14 , . . . 250 . , 2000 . . 10.15 , . 472 . . 50 250 . . 750 .. , , . , , , , . , , . B. 10.16 1997 ., , 1998 . (. . 10.4). , , , 2000 . , , (. . 10.5). , 144 . , ( , , , , , ..), , , , . 10.4: (% ), 1997 - 2002 . % 5 4.6 4 3.9 3.6 3 3 3.1 2.8 2 1 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year : . , 2004 . 10.5: (% ): 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% CEE AverWEur\NAmer age Croatia epublic Estonia Latvia CzechR Hungary Poland Russia ovakia Sl : , 2002 . 10.17 . , ( 0,7 , ) . (63,2 2001 .), (19,0 ), (17,8 , ). . (2004 .) , ( (. . 10.6)). , . , , , . 145 10.6: , ./., 2001 . .. 1700 1500 1300 1100 , ,./., 1002 900 700 1000 3000 5000 . , . 2001, : , 2004 . 10.18 ( ) . 59 15000 . , , , 63 2500 . . ( 25 15000 .), ( 35 5000 .). , . 1 , (. . 10.7). . 10.7: (% ) (.), 2001 . .. ) 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 %( 0 1000 3000 5000 . , ., 2001 . : . , 2004 . 10.19 . , , , (. 10.3). , , , , , . , 146 , . , - 500 . , 2 36 ­ . - - . 10.3: , - , % 65 72 - 29 46 23 35 : , 2003 ., C. 10.20 , , ( « : », 2004 .): · . , , , . 3.7 , , 5.5 4,5 . , ( ), . · , . , - , , . ( , , ). , , . , . , 147 . , , , , , . . · , , , - . (, ), . , , ( , , ..) . , , , , , , . . · , . , . , , . . · . , , . , ( , ). ( ), , , . · - . - . , . , . , , - 148 , , , . · , , . , , - . , , . , - . - . , , . . 149 11. : , ; , . . , , . , 1998 . , - , , , . . , . . . « » . , , . A. 11.1 , , - : , . , . , . . , , , , . ( ) . 11.2 , . ( 11.1). , , 20 , «» « ». 20 , . , , , , . , , 150 , , . , . , , 1998/99 .., 90 ( , 2004). 11.3 11.2, , . . , . . 11.1: (%) . «» (1-20% , 5­20% «» \ «- \« ) « » » » 1 38 16 47 2 39 20 41 3 39 20 41 4 43 21 35 5 52 20 28 : , 2003 . 11.2: , , (%) , (1 - 20% , 5 ­ 20% ) 1 2 3 4 5 31 19 19 17 14 100 40 22 13 13 12 100 : , 2003 . 11.4 , (. 11.3). , , . , , , , , (Field and Twigg, 2000), , -, , , . (Lock et al., 2002; . /Malyutina et al./, 2002; Men et al., 2003). 11.5 , , . 80- ., 90- , 1998 . (. 11.1). 50- 60- . , 70- . , , ( ) (Asvall and Alderslade, 2002). 151 11.1: , 1970-2003 .- 80 75 (15)1 2004 aveaveaverage . . (15) (12) 70 65 60 1970 _ 1980 1990 2000 2010 : WHO, Health for All Database, 2004. 11.6 25 64 . , , - ( ) ( ) (65 ) . , 2,4 , -- 9,6 . , RLMS ( ), 1992 1998 . 0,7 (Notzon et al., 1998). , , 5,8 . 11.7 . , 42 , 15 , 60 (. 11.3). 23 ; , , ( 736 2935 . ), -- 20 . , , , , , . , , . 152 11.3: : ( % 100.000 15 ) 60 (%) (2001) (2000) (2000) (2001) (2001) 9.370 36 54 69 22,6 8.240 38 51 70 18,0 7.070 68 38 64 25,9 6.880 132 63 59 42,4 5.830 36 65 67 21,8 2.630 153 60 62 33,5 975 2.935 . (Lower middle income countries) 4.700 119 59 67 20,5 2.936 9.075 . (Upper Middle income countries) 8.500 55 42 68 21,8 : World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2003. 11.8 10 (Plavinski, et al. 2003). 90- . . . 90- . . 11.9 , , , 80- ., ,. . () 10 , . / . , 1 ; , , .45 ( ), ( ) . : 60 - 20 30 . 45 , . 153 1 3 . 11.10 46 ( 11.2). , 2010 , , , , , 2,3 . . , 2020 10 . , . 11.2: , 1987- 2003 . 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 : , , 2004 . B. 11.11 . - , , - (. 11.4). , . 5 (, 2003 .). , 25 . ( ) 16 (European Observatory, 2003). 46 : www.worldbank.org.ru. 154 11.4: - , 100.000 . - - . . - .- , . , 25,0 20,6 205,5 849,4 70,5 44,6 219,9 92,2 80,3 282,2 1.338,4 134 564,2 444,7 ( ) 4,7 2,3 56,9 198,6 9,3 9,7 37,3 ( ) 22,9 19,0 189,8 719,6 66,3 43,4 53,8 : , 2000 . 11.12 ( 11.5 11.6). 1998 . 11.5: , 1999-2001 . ( 1.000 ) 1999 2000 2001 ( 40.3 33 42.1 ) ( 10.1 9.4 8.1 ) e: 11.6: , 1999-2001 . 1999 2000 2001 . . . . . . 73,4 68,1 78,6 74,0 68,6 79,0 74,6 70,0 79,1 ( ) 56,0 50,7 62,1 56,1 50,4 63,0 56,4 51,1 62,8 ( ) : 155 11.13 , . (, 2003). , , , ( , , 2003). C. 11.14 , , ? ­ , , , . , . (World Bank, Basic Services for the Poor, 2003). , , , . . 11.15 , . (2003) . , , . . 11.16 - , (. 11.3). 10 . 90- ., 1998 . 1998 . 156 11.3: , 1991-2001 . ( , 1991 = 100) : . : , . 11.17 , , 1995 3-4 , 1998 . U: , 2000-2001 ., (. 11.7). , «» 1998 . , 1998 . 11.7: 1997-2002 . (% ) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 , . 40,4 36,2 31,1 30,0 31,5 34,6 4,6 3,6 3,0 2,8 3,1 3,9 3,5 3,4 2,9 2,8 2,9 3,2 16,0 13,3 9,7 8,9 10,9 12,6 16,3 15,9 15,5 15,5 14,6 14,9 : , 2004 . 11.18 , , , 6-8 . , , . 157 11.19 , «». , ( ) . ( ) , , . ( 10.000 . ) 6 , -- 7 . ( ) 5,3 . 11.20 () , . , 90- . . , , , , . , : . ; . 11.21 ­ . , , . . . , , , , (Shiskin, 2001). - , , - , . . , , , . 11.22 . , 7 89 , , 2001 . -- 355 . 2.635 . (. 11.4). , , , ­ , , , . . , , , , , . 158 11.4: , 47, 2001 . 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 . 1,000 500 - : , 2004 . D. « » 11.23 (. . 11. 5), , . , 30 55 , (. , WHO, 2002; Russian Independent Institute for Social Policy, 2003; Beliaeva, National Health Accounts, 2001). , . , , , (Nurgozhin, 2001). , , . , 60 , , , . (Mossialos, 1999). 47 ­ , , , . 159 11.5: , 1994-2001 . 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ., .. . . . : , 2003 .; , 2001 . 11.24 (70 ) , , . . , , , , , ( ). , . , ( 80 ), . , ( , ) . 11.25 (IISP, 2003), , , . 1994 0,4 3,4 . 2000 , , 0,9 3,5 . , . 2000 (1,8 0,2 ). 2002 ( , ), , , 2,8 1,4 . , , ( ) . , , , . 2000 (4,1 3 ). 11.26 , . , 1998-99 . 160 3.000 . (Boykov et al., 2000). , 14 : 7 , 3 , 3 1 . , , . 4 . ­ 33 ­ (22 ), (4 ), (3 ) (5 ). 9 (4 ) (5 ). 11.27 - , , , . « » 2001 600 . . ( (Satarov), 2002). , 15 60 , , . , ( 4 38 ), (21-45 ), (80-84 ). , , ( , 2003). 11.28 , 35 , .48 95 , , 5 , . , , , , , . , , , . 11.29 , « » , . 11.8 , . . 48 . 161 11.8: , 2003 . (.) 1.277 984 2.736 2.201 1.261 1.006 1.026 20%- 1 904 838 2.255 1.903 927 756 827 2 984 787 2.274 2.432 1.158 608 739 3 1.362 890 2.945 1.987 1.222 1.028 664 4 1.103 1.096 2.841 2.036 1.355 928 1.006 5 1.664 1.096 3.112 2.457 1.521 1.412 1.455 1.341 983 3.013 2.197 1.280 929 1.181 1.072 986 2.023 2.212 1.209 1.237 640 : , 2003 . 11.30 . 11.6 , , , , . . 11.7 , , . , , , . 11.6: , , 20 % ( 20%) 20% ( 20%), % 35 30 25 20 20% 15 20% 10 5 0 - . . . : , 2003 . 162 11.31 , . 11.7, . 50 . 2 . 20 . , , . 11.7: , , (1 ­ 20% , 5 20% ), % 250 1 2 3 200 4 5 150 100 50 0 . . . . . . . . : , 2003 . 11.32 , 50 60 , , , , , . , . , , ( ) . 11.33 , - , ­ - . 11.9 , . , , , 20 , .. . 20- () . 20- . , 20- , - , . 11.9 , 3 , . , , , . , 163 , , , . 11.9: : , , 2003 . (%) 20-% / 1 2 3 4 5 34 23 18 15 10 25 75 15 24 18 22 21 86 14 32 22 20 17 9 72 28 21 18 20 19 21 75 28 : , 2003 . 11.34 10 , , . 11.10 , . 72 , . , . , , . 40-50 , ­ 26 . 11.10: « ?» (%) 20-% 1 2 3 4 5 , 21 23 21 20 16 - 21 24 21 19 14 - 22 27 16 22 12 15 18 19 20 27 : , 2003 . E. 11.35 , . , , . . , , . , , . . - , () , 164 - , -, . . « » 11.36 : « » , , -, . . 11.37 : 1. -. , . , , . 2. ( ) - . 3. , , , . , . 11.38 ­ , ? , , . , , , , , , . , ( ). , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , - . . (2002), , , , , . 165 11.39 . , . : 1. 11.40 , , , , «» - «». . , . 2. 11.41 . , , , , . , . , .. , , , . 3. 11.42 , . : · , ( ) · , (- ). , . · , . 11.43 , -. . : 166 · . , , , . ( ) , . · / , , , ( ) , . , , , , . , , . , , . · , 11.44 . , , , , . , « ». 41 . . . . 11.45 , , , , , , . , , , . 11.46 , , , . : 1. , . 2. , , : · ( ) 167 · · ( , ) · ( , ); · , . · , 3. , , . 4. , - 2003 . : · · · , · · · , . 5. , , . , , , . , . ­ , , 168 . 6-7 , . 11.47 - 2007 ( 2002 .). , , , . 169 IV. 170 12. , . , , . A. 12.1 (), ( 2004 ()). 1952 , , , . 1997 49000 ; . , 89 . 12.2 (RLMS) , (1) ; (2) , ; (3) ; (4) . , , , , . , , . : (1) , ; (2) ( ; , , ); (3) ( 1999 , , ); (4) ( ). 12.3 , , , (), c (. 12.1). 171 , , , , . 12.1: , , , , () · · · · · · 2002 · · , , · · , 1997-2000 .: · : 12.4 , , , , . B. 12.4 , , . , , . . : · · · 172 12.5 - 2003 . 3500 , , . , 90 , , , 2005 . , , , , . , , , . 12.6 . . , , , , , , , , , , . , , , -, , . , , , , , . ­ , . . . , , . 12.7 . , , , () . () , 2005 . C. 12.8 . 1997 49000 . , . , , . , , . , 10- ­ 1994 . . , () 2002 , 2005 . 173 12.9 . , . , : , . ; ; ; . . , , , , , , , , ( ­ , ). 12.10 2003 . 24500 ; 98000 . , , , 49000 . , , 50 , , 50 , 50 . . . 12.11 . 7000-8000 , 2 3 . ( ). . , . , . , , . . 12.12 . , , , ( ), 2-3 , , . , , , , . 12.13 ­ . , , (1724). 174 , 16 12 ( 25 20 ­ ). , 69000 29000 ­ . , , , , ­ . ­ , , . , . , . , , . , , , , , . , , , ( ) , , , . , 35-40- , . D. : 12.14 80 . - , . , , . 1997 63 . , , , . , , , . , , , , . 12.15 , , ­ ­ . , ­ , , , , (. 12.2). , 175 , , . . . . . -, , , . -, , . ­ , , . , (. ), . , , . 12.2: : . , 2001-2002 , , , 72 2001 88 2002 2003 . ­ . , , , . , . , , , . 12.16 , . , (, ..) «» . , . : · ; · , ; · , . , , , ; · , , . 12.17 , , - 176 . , , . , , , ­ 89 , . , , . , , , . . 12.18 : , . , . « » () . (), ( ­ , 7 ). , , , , , , .. ( .) , , , , . 12.19 , , . , , , , , 2003 . 3500 , 14 . , , 44 , , , . , , , ( 6 11 ­ ). . (3500 ) 1874 (53,5 ), . 63 , , , 50-100 ( ). 12.20 , , , . 2003 20 , , , . , , , , 177 , . . -, , ( , , , , , , ). -, , , , . , , . -, , , , , , , . 12.21 . ( ), . ( - ). 12.22 2003 . , . , , (Canadian Census Edit and Imputation System (CANCEIS)), . . () 2004 . E. 12.23 , , . 12.24 . 1 « », ,49 : « , , , , . , , ». 49« », , 1994 . 178 6 , « , , , ». ­ , , . 12.25 . , - , . , . 2003 . : «... 2005 , ».50 , , , , , , . 12.26 , , : 1. . , , ( (Data Documentation Initiative)), . ­ (UKDA), , , . , , . 2. . , . . , . : a. ; b. , / , , , ; c. , ; d. , ; 50 ­ , , , . , , , - , 2003 . 179 e. UKDA , ; f. UKDA , . 3. . , . , . 4. . ­ , . 12.27 , , . , . 12.28 , , , 2003-2004 , 2005 . , , , , , . 180 1 A1.1: 2002 . . . / 143.330 100 100 100 1 0.627 160.2 149.8 155.7 402 0.044 170.7 152.3 162.8 7174- 0.509 149.8 141.6 146.3 7700 0.074 225.2 205.1 216.6 2 1.022 126.0 131.2 128.2 1113 0.045 164.9 134.5 151.9 4700 0.978 124.2 131.0 127.1 3 6.964 121.5 131.2 125.7 500 2.125 117.9 116.4 117.3 800 1.486 112.4 137.0 123.0 1000 0.982 98.6 110.8 103.8 3021 () 0.352 155.0 163.6 158.7 3051 0.028 241.3 188.6 218.7 4400 0.229 150.7 145.9 148.6 6400 0.585 134.9 160.6 145.9 9800 () 0.983 138.8 146.3 142.0 9900 0.195 105.1 103.5 104.4 4 20.498 99.9 97.0 98.6 100 2.621 85.3 89.7 87.2 406 0.018 166.8 119.4 146.5 409 () 2.953 111.4 100.5 106.7 2523 () 2.570 103.8 97.6 101.2 2555- 0.142 102.1 95.4 99.2 3200 2.940 96.6 95.5 96.1 5000 2.717 106.0 101.2 103.9 5200 2.127 85.2 88.1 86.4 6900 1.061 98.9 104.4 101.3 7635 () 1.158 112.1 109.9 111.2 181 1.1 . . . / 7667 0.080 99.0 99.9 99.4 8100 1.019 100.3 93.0 97.2 8400 0.205 99.4 93.7 97.0 9300 0.310 103.0 94.7 99.5 9500 0.575 103.1 99.2 101.4 5 12.011 104.9 105.8 105.3 3700 1.074 93.0 96.8 94.6 6500 4.545 106.4 109.0 107.5 7139 () 1.340 107.4 105.7 106.7 7172- 1.424 123.7 138.7 130.1 7500 3.629 98.1 91.5 95.3 6 13.237 102.2 101.5 101.9 1116 () 1.384 98.1 99.5 98.7 1900 1.301 100.4 92.2 96.9 2700 0.943 100.3 109.1 104.1 4000. - 4.596 108.4 110.3 109.2 4100 1.650 99.4 95.6 97.8 4900 0.711 91.4 95.8 93.3 5800 0.778 92.9 84.7 89.4 8600 0.756 102.8 90.9 97.7 8700 1.117 103.1 102.8 103.0 7 36.482 102.5 101.9 102.3 1400 1.498 88.7 84.8 87.0 1500 1.410 92.4 84.8 89.1 1700 1.574 88.0 78.2 83.8 2000 2.415 88.7 87.0 87.9 2400 1.191 87.5 93.3 90.0 2800 1.552 94.6 93.6 94.2 2900 1.059 93.4 86.4 90.4 3400 0.766 87.6 85.4 86.6 3800 1.285 87.6 89.6 88.5 4200 1.229 92.7 81.9 88.1 4500. 8.539 132.5 144.9 137.8 4600 6.410 103.2 101.0 102.3 5400 0.884 87.3 81.5 84.8 6100 1.255 90.9 82.3 87.2 6600 1.098 96.4 80.0 89.4 6800 1.241 85.2 85.8 85.5 7000 1.690 91.7 79.7 86.6 7800 1.386 94.2 87.4 91.3 182 A1.1 . . . / 8 31.642 93.9 92.4 93.3 2200 3.598 96.2 93.3 95.0 3300 1.560 93.2 96.1 94.4 3600 3.259 104.7 107.3 105.8 5300 2.199 91.3 88.6 90.1 5600 1.504 82.5 90.8 86.1 5731 () 2.776 99.3 98.6 99.0 57590 0.148 91.5 83.4 88.0 6300 2.676 92.0 99.8 95.3 7300 1.440 90.0 88.8 89.5 8000 4.091 91.2 83.6 87.9 8800 0.750 94.5 84.0 90.0 8900 0.910 95.4 89.8 93.0 9200 3.768 88.9 89.5 89.2 9400 1.616 97.7 87.2 93.2 9700 1.346 93.2 82.0 88.4 9 20.847 91.0 93.4 92.0 300 4.988 93.4 97.7 95.2 700 2.643 93.9 95.7 94.7 1200 1.009 92.4 93.3 92.8 1800 2.637 92.1 91.3 91.7 2600 0.466 93.8 107.5 99.7 6000 4.286 87.7 95.2 90.9 7900 0.445 92.4 84.7 89.1 8200 2.180 89.7 89.9 89.8 8300 - 0.782 89.6 81.1 85.9 8500 0.306 81.7 88.7 84.7 9000 0.678 88.5 81.2 85.3 9100 - 0.429 83.5 82.2 82.9 183 T A1.2: , 2002 . ( ) . . . . . / 570 486 1056 703 549 1251 1 1061.1 737.7 1798.8 1307.0 831.7 2138.8 402 1112 743 1854 1369 837 2206 7174 - 1000 692 1693 1232 780 2012 7700 1452 1047 2499 1789 1183 2972 2 819.9 651.0 1470.9 1009.9 735.5 1745.5 1113 1078 650 1729 1328 733 2062 4700 808 651 1459 995 736 1731 3 691.5 633.5 1325.0 851.7 715.2 1566.9 500 667 560 1228 822 633 1455 800 646 664 1310 796 749 1545 1000 556 535 1091 685 604 1289 3021 () 898 800 1697 1106 903 2008 3051 1379 929 2308 1698 1049 2747 4400 855 724 1579 1053 818 1871 6400 772 788 1560 951 890 1841 9800 () 786 687 1474 968 774 1743 9900 597 514 1110 735 580 1315 4 570.0 468.4 1038.5 702.1 528.8 1230.9 100 489 437 925 602 493 1095 406 947 580 1528 1167 654 1821 409 () 641 492 1134 790 556 1346 2523 () 593 472 1065 730 532 1262 2555 - 581 444 1025 716 500 1215 3200 547 464 1012 674 524 1199 5000 604 489 1093 744 552 1296 5200 488 421 908 601 475 1076 6900 563 510 1073 693 576 1269 7635 () 637 522 1159 785 589 1374 7667 560 455 1015 690 512 1202 8100 571 436 1006 703 491 1194 8400 565 451 1015 695 508 1204 9300 585 437 1022 721 492 1213 9500 588 480 1068 725 542 1266 5 593.3 515.2 1108.5 730.7 582.1 1312.9 3700 524 476 999 645 538 1183 6500 599 535 1134 738 605 1343 7139 () 609 513 1122 750 579 1329 7172 - 704 662 1367 867 746 1614 184 A1.2 . . . . . / 7500 557 446 1003 686 504 1190 6 582.2 501.0 1083.2 717.1 566.3 1283.5 1116 () 560 489 1049 690 552 1242 1900 569 462 1031 701 523 1224 2700 568 527 1095 699 596 1295 4000 . - 621 541 1162 765 611 1377 4100 569 483 1052 701 546 1247 4900 515 480 995 634 544 1178 5800 523 426 950 644 483 1128 8600 580 451 1031 714 510 1225 8700 582 500 1082 716 565 1281 7 581.8 502.9 1084.7 716.6 568.8 1285.5 1400 509 415 923 627 469 1095 1500 521 416 936 642 470 1112 1700 500 388 888 615 439 1055 2000 502 424 926 618 480 1098 2400 491 463 954 605 524 1129 2800 528 472 1000 650 535 1185 2900 526 431 957 648 487 1136 3400 493 429 922 607 486 1093 3800 491 432 924 605 489 1095 4200 523 404 927 645 457 1101 4500 . 756 711 1467 932 804 1735 4600 589 499 1088 725 564 1289 5400 494 401 895 609 453 1062 6100 512 409 921 631 463 1094 6600 543 395 938 669 447 1116 6800 484 429 913 596 486 1082 7000 521 397 918 641 450 1091 7800 528 437 965 650 495 1145 8 533.9 447.5 981.4 657.6 505.5 1163.2 2200 540 457 997 665 517 1182 3300 525 473 998 646 536 1182 3600 602 525 1126 741 592 1333 5300 523 429 952 645 484 1129 5600 467 442 909 575 501 1076 5731 () 567 478 1045 698 540 1238 5759 0 511 395 906 629 446 1075 6300 523 491 1014 644 555 1200 7300 513 433 946 631 489 1121 185 A1.2 . . . . . / 8000 517 400 917 637 451 1088 8800 539 401 940 664 452 1117 8900 548 447 995 675 506 1181 9200 509 424 933 627 478 1105 9400 552 418 970 680 471 1152 9700 522 385 907 642 435 1077 9 517.6 437.5 955.1 637.6 493.7 1131.3 300 530 465 995 653 525 1178 700 532 448 980 655 506 1161 1200 526 451 976 647 509 1156 1800 524 444 968 646 501 1147 2600 534 435 969 658 486 1144 6000 499 453 951 614 511 1125 7900 520 398 918 641 449 1090 8200 515 393 908 634 442 1076 8300 - 510 362 872 628 407 1036 8500 468 411 879 577 463 1040 9000 505 364 869 622 410 1032 9100 - 476 375 851 586 422 1008 186 A1.3: , 2002 . , . . . / 194118 19.6 5.1 2.0 29.0 8.1 3.3 2159 1 3800 9.5 2.7 1.1 13.8 4.2 1.8 4531 402 1260 34.2 10.1 4.1 44.2 14.9 6.6 3045 7174 - 1040 3.2 0.7 0.2 6.0 1.4 0.5 4826 7700 1500 37.7 12.1 5.5 48.8 17.0 8.2 3394 2 3100 12.3 3.0 1.1 20.6 5.1 2.0 2867 1113 1340 31.6 12.3 6.4 43.9 16.5 8.8 2260 4700 1760 11.4 2.5 0.9 19.5 4.6 1.6 2895 3 16180 21.4 5.8 2.4 30.7 8.9 3.8 2347 500 2520 24.2 6.5 2.6 35.3 10.1 4.3 1949 800 2440 17.0 4.9 2.1 26.0 7.4 3.2 2631 1000 1900 20.8 5.4 2.0 29.6 8.4 3.4 1846 3021 () 1720 13.8 3.0 1.0 22.0 5.3 1.9 3192 3051 1280 36.1 10.8 4.7 48.9 16.1 7.3 3105 4400 1880 33.7 10.4 4.5 43.9 14.8 6.8 2323 6400 1620 22.6 5.5 2.1 31.4 8.7 3.5 2549 9800 () 1800 21.8 6.4 2.7 28.7 9.3 4.1 2890 9900 1020 18.7 4.8 1.7 27.1 7.6 3.0 2081 4 31578 20.8 5.6 2.3 30.1 8.7 3.7 1831 100 2980 18.8 4.3 1.5 29.0 7.3 2.7 1759 406 1100 32.8 11.2 5.5 43.5 15.5 7.9 2449 409 () 2860 12.3 2.8 1.0 19.9 4.9 1.8 2283 2523 () 2800 15.0 3.5 1.2 23.4 6.0 2.2 2273 2555 - 1000 46.5 14.6 6.4 59.6 20.7 9.7 1281 3200 3040 21.1 5.5 2.1 30.6 8.7 3.6 1553 5000 2740 25.2 6.8 2.6 35.7 10.5 4.4 1615 5200 2600 20.7 6.2 2.9 28.3 9.1 4.2 1675 6900 2020 16.6 4.8 1.9 24.3 7.3 3.1 1961 7635 () 2020 30.0 8.2 3.4 42.3 12.6 5.4 1983 7667 1080 42.3 13.5 6.0 51.9 18.8 8.9 1320 8100 2120 31.9 9.6 4.4 42.7 13.9 6.5 1370 8400 1558 31.6 9.0 3.8 42.6 13.4 6.0 1459 9300 1840 41.6 16.4 8.4 51.6 21.2 11.4 1329 9500 1820 22.4 6.1 2.5 32.6 9.4 4.0 1759 187 A3 , . . . / 5 11620 18.8 5.2 2.1 25.8 7.9 3.4 2125 3700 1860 28.8 8.7 3.7 40.8 12.7 5.7 1460 6500 3980 21.8 6.0 2.4 29.3 9.0 3.9 1858 7139 () 1240 16.0 3.5 1.2 22.9 6.0 2.2 2246 - 7172 1520 3.4 0.5 0.1 6.7 1.2 0.3 4015 7500 3020 19.3 5.6 2.4 25.6 8.2 3.7 1871 6 19240 11.7 2.9 1.1 19.6 4.8 1.9 2133 1116 () 1820 11.3 2.5 0.9 18.2 4.3 1.6 2067 1900 2020 14.8 3.9 1.5 22.1 6.3 2.5 2067 2700 1960 24.1 6.9 3.1 36.1 10.5 4.7 1792 4000 . - 3720 3.1 0.4 0.1 8.7 1.2 0.3 2513 4100 2040 14.1 3.2 1.1 25.3 5.6 2.0 1837 4900 1800 24.0 6.4 2.5 33.3 9.9 4.1 1478 5800 1900 20.6 5.1 1.9 31.0 8.3 3.3 1677 8600 1700 12.3 2.7 1.0 19.4 4.8 1.8 2158 8700 2280 15.9 4.8 2.1 23.9 7.1 3.2 2171 7 42680 15.2 3.6 1.3 24.5 6.1 2.3 1823 1400 1900 6.8 0.9 0.2 12.8 2.2 0.6 1778 1500 1800 24.4 6.0 2.2 38.4 10.0 3.9 1407 1700 2200 15.2 2.9 0.9 25.5 5.7 1.9 1582 2000 2760 23.7 6.0 2.2 34.0 9.6 3.9 1404 2400 1620 25.4 6.1 2.4 36.1 9.9 4.0 1475 2800 2720 21.2 5.1 1.8 31.6 8.3 3.2 1715 2900 1820 10.3 2.0 0.7 18.8 3.9 1.3 1886 3400 1920 23.9 6.3 2.4 35.9 10.0 4.1 1336 3800 1980 24.0 5.5 1.8 36.0 9.3 3.4 1288 4200 1780 12.4 2.8 0.9 20.0 4.8 1.8 1942 4500 . 5520 8.6 1.5 0.4 17.0 3.2 1.0 2454 4600 4040 16.8 4.8 2.0 24.9 7.4 3.2 1780 5400 2000 12.7 2.9 1.0 22.0 5.1 1.9 1716 6100 2020 17.5 4.3 1.6 27.5 7.1 2.8 1584 6600 1800 19.5 4.2 1.4 30.3 7.5 2.7 1302 6800 2200 20.0 4.5 1.5 29.6 7.6 2.8 1510 7000 2300 8.8 1.4 0.4 18.8 3.3 0.9 1633 7800 2300 11.9 3.1 1.3 19.2 5.0 2.1 1836 188 A1.3 , . . . / 8 38420 21.4 5.6 2.2 31.4 8.9 3.6 1621 2200 3320 21.5 5.5 2.1 32.2 8.9 3.6 1531 3300 2500 18.9 5.4 2.1 28.0 8.2 3.5 1863 3600 3460 20.3 5.8 2.5 28.2 8.7 3.8 1896 5300 2580 13.4 2.4 0.7 23.1 4.9 1.5 1893 5600 1900 16.8 4.0 1.4 27.3 6.8 2.6 1591 5731 () 3340 20.0 5.2 2.0 30.2 8.2 3.4 1727 5759 - 1160 43.4 12.1 4.6 55.7 18.1 7.7 1249 6300 3080 26.0 7.8 3.5 35.6 11.3 5.2 1598 7300 2040 28.8 8.4 3.5 39.0 12.4 5.5 1349 8000 3700 20.1 4.9 1.8 29.3 8.0 3.1 1585 8800 1900 38.7 11.9 5.1 50.9 17.1 7.9 1347 8900 1760 30.9 8.1 3.2 44.8 12.9 5.3 1427 9200 3760 20.4 5.0 1.9 30.8 8.2 3.2 1509 9400 1920 21.0 4.7 1.6 30.1 8.0 3.0 1773 9700 2000 19.9 5.2 2.0 32.9 8.7 3.4 1193 9 27500 28.9 7.9 3.2 40.0 12.0 5.1 1428 300 3620 25.2 6.9 2.8 36.7 10.6 4.5 1500 700 2740 29.8 7.1 2.5 41.3 11.5 4.5 1481 1200 1800 25.4 6.5 2.4 34.5 10.2 4.1 1797 1800 3080 23.1 5.7 2.1 35.0 9.3 3.6 1515 2600 960 46.7 13.6 5.9 58.2 19.5 8.9 1549 6000 3720 21.2 5.2 1.9 31.4 8.5 3.4 1468 7900 1860 22.0 5.4 2.0 31.8 8.8 3.5 1768 8200 2460 55.6 18.1 8.1 68.6 24.9 12.0 886 - 8300 1900 41.7 12.5 5.4 50.5 17.9 8.3 1143 8500 1820 36.4 11.8 5.4 45.8 16.3 7.9 1247 9000 1920 25.6 6.7 2.4 35.0 10.5 4.2 1323 - 9100 1620 18.2 4.4 1.5 26.6 7.1 2.7 1535 189 III 3.1 (Gini): . (1980), Gini : , yi yj i j . n , yu . G 0 1 . Gini . y . pi pj i j . P , n . Gw 0 P/pi - 1 . pi P, .., , 1. Theil. , yi i ( n). Theil entropy index T : T = 1 n å yi logyi, (1) n i m m , Theil T0 : T0 = 1 n å m log (2) n i yi B ( ) Wg ( ): W W0 , B Bo g g=1,...,G. g wg, vg, T0g Tg 190 Theil Theil g, Theil ( ) ( ) : G G T = Wg + B =åv T + vg G G wg log , T + log . (3) g g åv g T0 = W0 + B0 = g åw g 0gåw g g=1 g=1 wg g=1 g=1 vg , , , : , , , , ... 191 3.2. 51 , , , : ( USD 800 2002 . ) ( , USD 2,500 2002). . , : (300 1000), , , (1 3 ); (80 ) (12 ). ( 50 ) " " ( , ), "" "" , . (1985 .), 185 , , . , . 2002 . . ( 85 $ 140 $ ), . (Nestle, General motors), . (2.9 ), , . , (11% 1989 2002 ..), . , " ", , ( 5 ), "Detroit " . . , ­ (), . . , , . 51 « », «» , 192 , , , , , . «» , . , : , " / ", " / ". . , . , . 10 ­ - , , ( ). . , . . , . , 25 2002 . , , 20 . Gini .25, .33. , , , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , , . 193 A3.1: * , . , . , . , . .* 2002 . ** 2002 . 2002 . ** 2002 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 53,226 52,607 65,249 37,402 20,116 33,675 24,824 15,685 25,904 1,511 33,579 36,025 43,482 37,921 20,416 28,773 28,186 15,911 24,258 1,379 24,375 23,533 29,969 24,374 14,537 24,885 19,498 12,411 19,042 1,524 28,977 29,392 34,970 24,414 14,217 23,168 18,379 12,236 19,909 2,379 33,782 33,424 37,054 26,799 17,403 25,347 18,467 12,356 20,039 1,148 24,388 22,025 25,668 23,682 11,616 20,025 18,423 10,634 17,279 1,042 33,498 32,326 38,593 26,692 16,625 26,656 20,124 14,025 22,719 737 33,802 33,843 37,415 22,491 13,884 22,317 17,844 11,827 17,402 1,235 31,185 32,102 37,806 28,932 16,435 25,037 20,957 14,164 19,127 1,213 47,933 47,338 58,622 30,950 18,917 31,871 22,237 15,216 24,534 6,618 45,431 46,652 56,032 27,577 17,164 30,328 22,310 14,945 26,875 860 31,941 34,633 45,159 31,682 19,646 29,565 22,529 15,507 21,848 1,228 38,202 37,671 44,554 24,677 13,603 25,295 19,714 11,855 22,268 1,049 34,804 40,114 44,805 36,969 13,526 22,036 19,237 11,796 20,076 1,178 24,281 26,268 33,286 22,454 18,062 24,704 17,406 14,652 20,062 1,471 33,410 35,773 39,956 25,054 13,494 27,864 18,688 11,618 21,798 1,676 35,930 34,625 40,508 28,090 15,031 24,962 22,396 13,445 21,591 1,368 51,386 51,776 63,650 30,975 17,865 30,903 23,608 15,053 24,578 . 10,383 143,242 142,714 192,622 122,530 46,031 66,799 61,328 31,422 50,609 - 716 47,107 48,490 58,108 34,443 21,715 38,517 24,651 16,584 29,760 1,018 83,200 79,520 91,506 41,452 31,827 44,092 25,156 18,557 32,534 1,336 47,117 50,528 63,384 31,189 20,493 37,930 22,085 15,972 27,655 . . 42 398,562 22,182 54,071 16,776 35,782 1,270 53,053 57,909 65,068 40,926 19,407 38,429 25,629 15,519 27,608 955 34,113 32,969 43,032 29,448 23,331 27,300 22,885 14,688 24,118 1,669 40,154 42,787 60,979 24,766 17,130 25,988 19,894 14,557 22,645 893 71,926 73,359 76,154 55,972 44,200 59,894 34,249 25,085 37,344 694 35,895 40,445 45,905 26,128 18,073 28,296 19,316 14,534 21,693 761 26,587 28,981 32,366 22,515 14,233 28,579 17,834 12,229 21,811 . - 4,661 57,616 57,947 78,911 35,726 23,320 40,617 27,925 19,935 34,105 447 17,139 17,433 18,800 22,819 13,703 27,530 18,930 12,134 22,630 2,577 11,616 10,872 16,470 13,249 7,777 12,452 10,177 7,345 11,593 467 9,168 6,982 8,227 18,784 14,503 13,233 14,295 - 902 16,607 18,193 26,074 18,463 10,989 17,801 14,640 9,922 14,466 292 32,737 27,804 46,151 19,530 10,497 18,297 14,794 8,847 15,773 - 440 18,010 17,503 23,953 24,346 15,532 23,876 20,470 13,027 19,541 710 14,874 16,992 23,602 21,961 15,117 22,043 17,468 13,317 18,101 5,125 35,159 38,825 45,757 25,392 14,433 26,267 17,959 11,677 21,029 2,735 25,415 25,028 31,255 29,731 14,888 26,538 19,993 11,343 19,874 1,005 30,338 34,307 44,584 22,895 17,032 33,527 17,405 13,456 24,904 2,699 36,523 32,469 41,586 26,445 13,817 26,051 19,110 11,073 21,505 4,404 23,414 24,799 33,415 26,482 16,067 25,968 19,723 13,862 21,601 4,104 46,791 44,649 52,345 30,033 19,600 31,474 19,267 14,206 23,054 728 27,041 25,899 25,945 19,911 12,653 18,597 14,505 11,127 15,685 889 22,027 21,412 27,371 25,253 13,456 22,435 19,270 11,904 18,277 3,779 57,111 56,413 69,289 28,343 16,019 28,388 20,210 13,893 21,847 1,570 47,096 44,647 52,955 32,701 21,389 31,744 22,707 14,494 21,822 1,314 28,543 26,122 30,324 22,243 11,757 25,884 16,791 10,101 19,410 1,504 34,296 33,821 35,730 30,288 15,936 28,160 21,512 12,906 22,318 3,524 44,882 44,316 55,874 34,837 15,380 27,840 26,652 12,844 23,393 2,179 43,183 40,615 47,267 29,876 17,008 28,631 19,824 13,760 23,231 1,453 27,490 27,147 30,874 23,416 13,179 24,815 18,916 11,298 20,211 2,820 58,929 59,177 68,920 33,332 19,922 37,029 21,004 15,809 26,293 - . . 136 21,365 8,545 17,187 7,290 14,071 3,240 65,740 62,320 73,474 38,561 22,755 41,260 24,467 16,913 26,505 2,668 34,178 31,868 39,230 30,463 15,266 24,540 20,366 12,777 21,542 1,383 32,433 31,383 35,239 25,303 14,796 22,751 19,375 12,639 18,772 194 * , . , . , . , . .* 2002 . ** 2002 . 2002 . ** 2002 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 1,019 30,764 28,603 31,483 38,581 14,739 24,692 20,243 11,951 18,960 4,486 46,039 43,104 54,851 42,834 18,147 32,695 30,089 14,708 25,969 3,265 233,796 231,804 294,042 73,215 41,812 80,914 45,040 27,227 48,443 - . . 1,433 405,985 53,252 102,851 34,048 55,765 - . . 507 550,997 67,528 113,496 37,426 67,845 3,604 49,096 44,171 50,884 37,381 20,229 32,891 26,425 16,174 23,184 203 26,323 24,872 31,278 27,215 13,057 22,954 20,978 11,693 19,016 981 32,992 33,532 39,822 24,306 14,769 22,614 17,686 12,346 19,501 306 17,740 18,116 22,057 21,745 11,100 21,977 16,068 9,637 17,968 546 45,806 41,473 44,890 31,112 20,298 31,628 22,642 15,879 23,855 2,607 23,461 23,343 29,010 25,232 15,443 27,774 19,424 12,753 20,691 2,966 69,531 68,392 79,565 39,183 26,935 46,576 27,500 18,775 31,914 . . 40 71,585 39,725 55,958 30,960 37,175 . . 18 48,339 27,782 35,525 21,299 30,528 2,582 57,746 52,813 57,945 32,863 23,035 38,166 23,782 17,857 28,914 - . . 135 28,110 13,821 16,900 11,968 14,423 2,899 43,184 42,979 49,883 31,649 18,328 28,917 22,532 15,205 23,004 2,692 36,423 36,152 48,295 38,539 15,987 27,683 22,448 13,386 22,485 2,079 37,843 33,276 43,739 32,090 15,700 31,644 18,065 13,974 24,312 1,046 60,431 58,056 77,360 38,277 20,562 37,433 25,899 16,530 26,596 1,156 34,220 32,602 38,974 29,879 14,739 28,123 22,881 12,696 22,641 . . 72 22,704 10,393 20,803 8,797 16,100 () 949 108,761 109,103 121,072 50,552 34,797 50,996 31,623 24,100 38,188 2,071 47,452 47,454 48,757 35,847 19,984 32,478 27,950 17,094 25,733 1,436 53,670 54,926 70,742 36,940 24,345 47,610 26,571 19,437 33,217 903 45,966 42,671 51,613 43,928 17,251 27,902 22,614 14,573 23,599 359 84,294 71,920 70,657 80,506 34,968 54,401 36,224 25,439 41,333 . . 25 144,224 34,537 41,819 29,367 38,598 183 133,252 104,069 114,536 57,080 28,901 39,936 38,909 22,445 36,051 547 85,718 98,096 103,089 43,361 28,024 50,904 32,437 20,678 37,943 . . 191 31,206 28,460 34,813 19,215 34,219 14,569 25,081 . . 54 157,867 111,153 220,265 33,543 49,592 32,127 44,640 10,383 233,796 231,804 550,997 122,530 67,528 113,496 61,328 37,426 67,845 18 9,168 6,982 8,227 13,249 7,777 12,452 10,177 7,290 11,593 * , , 1999 2002 (, . . 2002 , 1999 2002 ); . ** , , . : , 1997-2002. 195 A3.2: ( ) * ** *** 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 **** 24.7 35.9 19.6 45.1 58.9 45.1 25.0 37.6 30.7 ***** 20.8 28.7 25.0 6.3 24.5 6.8 26.3 45.6 27.0 18.9 26.9 25.0 24.3 40.6 24.4 45.2 56.9 45.0 18.6 45.0 33.8 20.9 40.0 15.2 45.1 62.3 43.8 24.3 40.8 36.7 26.4 48.1 23.7 49.7 57.8 47.9 24.0 33.8 33.8 31.3 54.3 25.4 58.6 79.8 61.6 27.0 64.9 67.4 19.5 35.3 10.3 39.2 55.1 42.4 22.8 47.0 40.1 30.8 45.1 23.9 48.9 59.7 46.9 19.8 38.1 37.5 27.0 31.1 24.0 53.1 57.6 58.6 22.6 35.0 35.9 20.9 27.9 12.4 35.0 45.1 27.6 17.7 25.9 25.8 19.9 46.0 16.8 51.2 61.4 51.7 22.7 27.6 28.6 18.8 26.0 12.7 35.8 44.1 36.3 21.7 35.9 31.4 28.4 44.1 17.5 49.6 62.0 42.9 21.2 52.4 31.1 29.5 44.3 19.5 36.7 65.6 52.1 18.4 27.2 26.2 30.6 29.8 20.0 55.1 52.4 42.4 21.2 27.9 26.8 29.9 51.6 21.2 51.1 65.8 46.5 23.1 67.4 41.0 16.4 37.7 8.8 36.5 58.9 34.9 16.6 31.2 22.1 22.8 41.8 11.9 39.8 53.7 34.6 18.5 27.7 21.4 . 2.1 23.1 8.6 24.3 37.4 30.4 16.1 23.3 21.0 - 16.4 29.5 12.3 39.7 49.2 40.8 19.6 26.2 20.0 27.3 42.2 15.9 45.4 58.5 43.6 16.7 22.1 21.5 21.9 38.0 11.3 51.4 65.8 45.5 25.3 49.5 28.8 . . 64.8 31.6 83.3 51.6 31.5 17.5 35.2 14.8 31.8 49.7 35.9 19.9 37.3 23.3 30.5 45.4 24.1 54.8 65.1 56.4 24.5 37.4 40.2 24.2 34.4 14.1 53.6 65.9 49.0 24.3 51.5 41.9 18.3 34.7 11.4 42.1 42.9 32.4 16.8 19.8 24.5 32.1 39.4 24.0 51.4 53.5 48.1 17.8 24.0 31.8 30.8 44.3 20.6 53.5 64.0 44.2 28.6 51.2 31.8 . - 12.4 21.7 3.1 48.4 54.9 34.6 22.9 33.2 21.1 23.5 40.7 22.0 49.0 59.5 40.2 40.2 54.8 35.6 66.4 71.3 55.6 79.9 87.0 85.2 53.9 67.2 47.9 59.5 46.7 86.9 89.7 76.9 95.1 87.6 - 46.6 51.6 41.7 62.1 73.0 61.6 39.8 46.6 29.4 42.3 59.8 36.4 63.6 81.5 66.9 46.0 78.1 57.4 - 22.8 33.2 18.2 55.3 61.6 46.5 41.0 64.6 38.8 26.2 33.9 25.6 45.1 45.7 41.0 33.9 31.2 24.9 35.5 55.9 25.2 48.4 64.5 47.0 24.2 35.3 32.7 29.7 55.0 29.8 50.5 63.6 52.4 34.8 45.2 39.1 34.0 42.7 25.4 56.6 64.0 47.3 27.8 42.9 26.2 33.1 54.5 23.1 48.5 63.9 47.6 24.1 58.1 31.5 29.6 41.0 21.2 50.5 54.3 46.4 19.4 25.3 26.9 29.1 40.7 20.1 49.3 54.9 40.9 25.2 30.3 23.1 38.1 53.7 38.7 62.3 71.8 65.1 52.1 69.0 54.7 31.7 52.3 30.9 52.2 69.0 55.1 38.6 68.1 43.6 26.0 39.7 20.4 48.5 59.4 46.7 17.9 24.1 24.0 16.1 37.7 21.0 37.2 52.0 36.9 24.6 49.5 31.8 35.6 57.4 19.9 52.6 71.7 39.2 28.8 68.2 42.3 23.1 45.2 18.9 39.3 58.8 41.2 30.8 56.6 36.3 196 * ** *** 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 15.0 46.0 21.5 45.7 67.0 43.7 17.3 38.0 22.9 28.6 38.7 13.4 50.3 56.7 42.3 22.9 35.6 33.3 26.1 48.8 16.8 55.4 67.6 41.6 38.0 68.7 39.4 24.2 39.8 20.0 41.3 54.5 44.2 18.3 25.6 24.1 - . . 76.2 43.4 80.4 71.0 37.5 70.4 20.4 39.9 20.3 43.2 55.8 43.9 18.3 23.4 28.4 29.8 48.2 26.0 46.9 62.2 52.5 32.1 43.0 38.5 32.0 47.1 28.8 47.2 59.0 50.0 17.1 31.4 43.1 37.8 56.3 28.8 35.8 67.2 53.7 42.6 56.5 47.8 14.9 51.6 21.8 35.0 57.4 42.8 23.1 35.6 24.9 21.0 25.7 16.0 30.4 70.6 39.5 13.4 17.8 16.1 - . . 17.0 3.4 36.8 20.5 11.8 - . . 18.8 3.2 30.9 13.6 7.6 14.5 32.6 19.3 45.4 55.4 39.6 23.3 32.0 30.2 36.4 54.0 31.6 53.4 72.9 57.8 39.2 61.0 37.8 39.6 51.7 31.9 60.9 73.5 63.7 44.3 50.5 39.1 49.7 70.0 41.6 75.7 90.2 68.2 62.4 78.6 49.9 21.2 38.1 22.4 54.6 65.4 45.9 27.6 45.0 33.4 25.4 45.0 18.8 45.4 60.4 40.7 45.7 56.4 38.9 20.2 37.4 12.3 38.9 50.5 34.2 19.7 25.1 25.6 . . 49.6 34.2 77.9 56.4 31.8 . . 44.3 32.8 95.3 82.6 67.8 22.9 30.8 15.0 42.3 49.9 38.9 27.3 29.9 33.9 - . . 49.9 46.5 77.5 79.0 82.7 24.4 42.2 21.1 40.3 59.4 54.0 17.9 27.9 23.5 27.3 53.6 25.2 32.7 68.4 52.0 39.3 61.1 44.7 31.8 39.0 20.7 40.4 65.0 44.9 23.4 38.5 24.3 17.9 37.9 16.6 38.2 53.0 40.5 19.8 27.2 23.3 29.9 59.0 30.0 64.9 82.8 62.1 61.2 88.8 57.3 . . 70.7 42.3 95.1 80.8 74.5 () 29.6 37.1 21.8 46.5 59.4 50.6 28.3 33.2 23.8 22.8 41.4 24.2 49.5 68.2 57.4 28.6 39.8 46.6 27.4 40.5 17.0 49.1 64.1 43.6 24.1 28.2 28.6 27.5 47.1 20.8 31.5 70.7 60.2 27.9 44.9 47.7 52.1 43.3 13.8 47.1 72.8 52.4 25.9 33.6 35.5 . . 53.4 36.1 81.8 82.0 47.7 23.4 50.7 33.7 46.6 68.2 66.8 25.9 46.3 25.5 26.3 49.6 22.6 58.8 66.1 54.3 32.8 36.5 33.3 . . 55.4 18.7 75.7 48.3 38.7 . . 52.1 37.7 91.5 80.6 43.9 66.4 76.2 55.6 86.9 95.3 89.7 76.9 95.1 87.6 2.1 17.0 3.1 24.3 30.9 13.6 13.4 17.8 7.6 * ( , . . 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(2003)); . 1. ** 2002 1997 ( ); *** . **** ***** , , , . , . : 2000, , . : , 1997-2002. 197 A3.3: ( ) 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 * 0.346 0.340 0.330 0.412 0.386 0.388 ** 0.444 0.422 0.419 0.310 0.252 0.239 0.398 0.342 0.264 0.305 0.303 0.298 0.348 0.333 0.367 0.278 0.285 0.260 0.330 0.321 0.297 0.299 0.330 0.319 0.407 0.416 0.363 0.320 0.285 0.248 0.379 0.304 0.283 0.271 0.295 0.257 0.325 0.311 0.282 0.296 0.285 0.264 0.340 0.315 0.296 0.339 0.276 0.313 0.438 0.323 0.405 0.332 0.295 0.287 0.388 0.323 0.362 0.253 0.323 0.317 0.292 0.336 0.355 0.343 0.274 0.293 0.407 0.327 0.351 0.323 0.321 0.304 0.373 0.348 0.328 0.329 0.310 0.277 0.421 0.353 0.305 0.324 0.294 0.285 0.374 0.360 0.335 0.279 0.295 0.303 0.368 0.324 0.375 0.304 0.294 0.249 0.347 0.320 0.284 0.331 0.351 0.287 0.402 0.384 0.335 . 0.359 0.368 0.340 0.421 0.400 0.364 - 0.301 0.297 0.336 0.357 0.345 0.407 0.341 0.375 0.378 0.454 0.517 0.420 0.269 0.297 0.292 0.358 0.354 0.376 . . 0.372 0.388 0.393 0.432 0.323 0.301 0.329 0.454 0.343 0.403 0.339 0.334 0.342 0.383 0.521 0.377 0.272 0.254 0.241 0.308 0.289 0.284 0.303 0.343 0.282 0.389 0.454 0.373 0.324 0.295 0.324 0.393 0.335 0.380 0.316 0.304 0.328 0.360 0.331 0.410 . - 0.265 0.265 0.261 0.308 0.291 0.291 0.293 0.289 0.388 0.336 0.312 0.422 0.338 0.335 0.283 0.401 0.339 0.312 0.430 0.292 0.429 0.306 - 0.362 0.312 0.314 0.397 0.335 0.363 0.353 0.317 0.322 0.391 0.325 0.379 - 0.355 0.288 0.294 0.387 0.346 0.360 0.305 0.301 0.285 0.357 0.321 0.327 0.306 0.353 0.324 0.376 0.389 0.377 0.334 0.320 0.320 0.447 0.389 0.436 0.307 0.342 0.384 0.363 0.399 0.465 0.324 0.319 0.324 0.383 0.363 0.373 0.331 0.338 0.313 0.380 0.357 0.339 0.336 0.332 0.346 0.438 0.405 0.414 0.304 0.318 0.314 0.369 0.340 0.351 0.321 0.327 0.299 0.379 0.347 0.339 0.356 0.366 0.320 0.414 0.380 0.398 0.265 0.301 0.300 0.360 0.407 0.377 0.313 0.347 0.288 0.366 0.360 0.323 0.296 0.305 0.291 0.369 0.332 0.334 0.328 0.310 0.338 0.375 0.356 0.366 0.356 0.314 0.291 0.449 0.346 0.348 0.298 0.279 0.284 0.344 0.309 0.335 0.331 0.347 0.366 0.423 0.383 0.450 - . . 0.340 0.288 0.360 0.337 0.311 0.357 0.326 0.415 0.419 0.450 0.331 0.328 0.327 0.387 0.366 0.351 0.318 0.339 0.313 0.371 0.362 0.335 198 1997 1999 2002 1997 1999 2002 0.399 0.323 0.309 0.423 0.366 0.373 0.305 0.335 0.315 0.377 0.357 0.338 0.365 0.373 0.363 0.437 0.467 0.463 - . . 0.372 0.349 0.446 0.462 - . . 0.342 0.349 0.419 0.413 0.310 0.320 0.301 0.411 0.359 0.380 0.353 0.298 0.309 0.412 0.319 0.353 0.348 0.337 0.328 0.409 0.374 0.362 0.385 0.361 0.386 0.452 0.392 0.422 0.287 0.331 0.313 0.346 0.382 0.367 0.308 0.335 0.295 0.362 0.365 0.362 0.345 0.330 0.324 0.403 0.382 0.409 . . 0.386 0.359 0.411 0.406 . . 0.365 0.357 0.386 0.389 0.342 0.315 0.345 0.406 0.358 0.396 - . . 0.328 0.280 0.376 0.333 0.329 0.352 0.314 0.389 0.380 0.360 0.324 0.311 0.307 0.367 0.339 0.340 0.341 0.343 0.375 0.400 0.363 0.434 0.314 0.325 0.310 0.416 0.391 0.419 0.376 0.314 0.333 0.431 0.344 0.383 . . 0.362 0.309 0.406 0.381 () 0.383 0.344 0.361 0.444 0.415 0.421 0.317 0.293 0.313 0.356 0.312 0.364 0.316 0.327 0.330 0.371 0.368 0.420 0.317 0.335 0.295 0.410 0.366 0.357 0.310 0.329 0.297 0.429 0.409 0.366 . . 0.333 0.302 0.378 0.338 0.334 0.387 0.399 0.409 0.453 0.424 0.319 0.321 0.355 0.379 0.380 0.415 . . 0.394 0.288 0.500 0.372 . . 0.395 0.333 0.421 0.353 0.430 0.395 0.399 0.454 0.521 0.465 0.253 0.252 0.239 0.292 0.289 0.264 * , , , , 2002 . 1999 1997 . ** . : , 1997-2002. 199 5 A5.1: , 1997-2002 . (1997=100) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 100 87 78 119 121 117 100 91 81 123 121 110 100 83 75 117 119 116 100 84 84 116 117 126 100 85 74 126 123 109 100 87 82 122 109 115 100 86 77 113 118 118 , 100 88 77 109 119 114 100 89 79 139 100 129 100 92 77 140 127 102 100 85 68 117 117 114 , 100 86 71 117 123 137 100 84 71 117 121 139 100 88 70 120 128 130 100 91 86 134 124 118 100 98 90 128 141 116 100 85 75 118 111 124 : " ," (2003), . 372-373. 200 A5.1: , 1996-97 ).79-6991.. 100 90 80 70 60 50 1996 40 (. 30 1997 20 10 1998 0 1999 TotalElectricitsMetaluetrochemical y rgy Timber Light 2000 Ferrou al and p AgricultuConstructmmunicaation services re ion tion Utilities ucation Ed Sciencenagement Co Ma 2001 Chemic Inform 2002 : " ," (2003), .383 201 6. , 1997 2002 . " " " ()". : , m L(p) Lorenz, mL( p) Lorenz. Lorenz , , . Lorenz . Atkinson (1987) . , , Lorenz (), , (). ( ) . p , . g(p), g(p) = DLn(m p ) (1) m p p . Lorenz, g(p) = DLn(m L(p)) (2) , g(p) p 0 100. Atkinson , g(p) >0 (g(p) <0) p, ( ) . (2) g(p)= g + DLn(L(p)) (3) g = DLn(m) . , p = 100, g(p) = g, .. DL(p)= 0 p = 100. (3) , g(p) > g p <100, , .. Lorenz (L(p) >0 p). 0 < g(p) < g p <100, , (L(p) <0 p). «» ; , . g(p) <0 p <100 g , immiserizing , (Bhagwati 1988). 202 6.1-6.6. () , , (). , p=100 . () , () ( p=100). 6.1 , , , 1998 . .. , , . 6.2 , 1999., , , , 1999 . ( ), . , , . , , . 1999 . , . , , . 2000 . . , . 6..3, , . , , , 2000 . : , . 2001 . , . 19 , 8.9 2001 . 9.3 2000 . , . . , , , , , 50 . 6.5. 6.6 , 1997 2002 .. 1998 . 6.1: 1997-98 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 203 6.2: 1998-99 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 6.3: 1999-00 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 6.4: 2000-01 19 18.5 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 204 6.5: 2001-02 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 6.6: 1997-02 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 . . () : , . : , , . . (2003) , , " " (), , . , : , 205 .2 , . , () , , , . ­ Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (1984) Watts (1967). , (. 6.1 : , , ). . , , , , . 1997 2002 .. 6 , 9.5 . 3.5 , , .. . 8.7 . , , . 6.1: Lower poverty line 1998 -9.4 -13.2 -13.1 -13.0 1999 -19.0 -15.7 -16.1 -16.4 2000 7.9 9.4 11.1 12.0 2001 18.5 18.4 19.2 19.7 2002 13.0 13.4 15.1 16.5 1997-02 6.0 9.5 12.6 14.7 1998 -9.3 -12.7 -13.0 -13.0 1999 -19.0 -15.7 -16.0 -16.3 2000 8.0 8.9 10.6 11.5 2001 18.3 17.8 18.7 19.3 2002 13.0 12.6 14.3 15.6 1997-02 6.0 7.5 11.0 13.2 2Ravallion Chen (2003) , , Watts. =, , , , , , Watts. 206 8 / ( 55+, 60+, . ) (PAYG, ); , ; 12 ; . 75% 3 , 60% 4 45% 5 ; (20% ) 3 , . . , 70 . 70 (110 1 ) . 60+, 65+ . ( , ), . ; . , ( ). , . 16 (18 ) . ( 12 . ) . 207 . ( . ) 18 . . ; ( , , , , , , , . , ..) . , . ; , , , - . , . , , . , 208 9 . 9.1 , , , , .. (, ei i- , pi ­ i- ..). 9.1: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 , , , 10 , , , , , - , , , ( ). , ( ), ­ . , 1.5. , B , : B = B(qm,n,q8, p1,..., p8) = (p1 + p5)qm + (p2 + p3 + p4 + p6 + p7)n + p8q8 (1) B , qm ­ ², n ­ , , qi ­ i. ) , : , ( q8 ) . , , , , . B : 8 , (qm ), (n) ( q8 ). , . (e8 ) . , , ( 88 ). 209 , . , , . , , , , . ( ) . B (, ). C, ­ HC. , , IV 2000 . 54 744 , 88 . 9.2, , . , (, ), , ( , , ..). 1.5, , , . 9.2: , ? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 551 9 , , , , 10 11 « », () , . -, , , . , « ». ­ «» , , , . 210 . 3 , , . . ­ , , . ­ , , , ( , 471 « »). , 9.3 . , , , « » , . 9.3: , , 471 ( , ) , 27,4 72 31 65,1 49 33 39,8 52 35 42,6 52 33 18,9 45 31 , . . . : , , 5,2 , ( ) 9,4 . . - . « ». -, . -, , · 52; · ; · , ; 52 , . , , ( (Decoster and Verbina ), 2003)). 211 · 2000 , (Kakwani & Sajaia 2003). , . , . , . , , . , . , ­ . . ­ . - , , , , . , , , 200 200 . . , lsh ( ): lsh = Eh - edurables - ehous + ykind h h (2) Ph ×nh : Eh : h , edurables : h h , ehous : h h , ykind : h 53 , Ph: , h, , nh : , h. , . , (Kakwani and Sajaia (2003)), . , , , «» ( , , 10 10 , (Kakwani and Sajaia (2003)). , , , 53 , , , ( ), , . 212 «» . , . , . , , , , . , (1) , . , , . 4 . «» « » , . . , , , , . 78 . , (17,7 ) (4,3 ), . , , , , . , 4 . , , , ( 8, 9 10 9.4), , , . 9.4: , , , 78,0 22,0 84,7 15,3 81,2 18,8 80,1 19,9 89,3 10,7 76,1 23,9 78,0 22,0 0,0 100,0 0,0 100,0 0,0 100,0 : , « », , «», . , . 10,7 ( 7 402 ), , , . , 213 (2 239 , 22,2 ), . 54. . , , , (2 462 , 37,6 ). (2 539 , 35,3 ), « , », . « », C. «» / . «» , «». «» . « », (1) , , , . : MSRn=1 = B(qm = a1, n, q8 = a4, p1,..., p8) MSRn=2 = B(qm = a2, n, q8 = a4 ×n, p1,..., p8) (3) MSRn³3 = B(qm = a3 × n, n, q8 = a4 ×n, p1,..., p8) a1 ­ a4 ­ : a1 ­ , ; a2 ­ ; a3 ­ , ; a4 ­ , 50. a1 , a2 a3 . . , , 32, 42 19 ². MSR , : A = max(0,MSR - tY) (4) 54 88 , . 214 A , Y ­ ; t ­ , . , , (, , C=HC), t ×Y . , Y ( , ), , . , , , , . , t . 2000 0,1733. MSR , , a1 , a2 , a3 . , , , , , . , , , , , . MSR55. , 50 . (, 100- ), 50- . , , a5 . , HC : (5 ) . , , , . , , , , . . , « », . , , , , 5. 55 , 15 , , . 215 9.5: , « A ? » 1 54,8 , 2 17,0 3 20,9 , , 4 7,3 , , 5 , . , , , . . 2 , . , , . 5, 17 . (5). 4 , , , . . 7,3 , , , «» . 3. , , , . , - , - , 56. , . 56 , , 3 4 . 56,4 3 53,3 4 . 216 : Asvall J., and R. Alderslade, "Europe," Critical Issues in Global Health. Koop, C., C. Pearson and M. Schwarz (eds). San Francisco, Jossey-Bass: pp. 29-27, 2002. Barro, R. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1991). 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