Kakuma as a Marketplace A consumer and market study of a refugee camp and town in northwest Kenya IN PARTNERSHIP WITH This image and cover images: ©IFC and Dominic Chavez Kakuma as a Marketplace © International Finance Corporation [2018]. All rights reserved. 2121 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 Internet: www.ifc.org US$1 = 103.2 Kenyan shillings (KES)1 The material in this work is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. IFC encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly, and when the reproduction is for educational and non-commercial purposes, without a fee, subject to such attributions and notices as we may reasonably require. 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Additionally, “International Finance Corporation” and “IFC” are registered trademarks of IFC and are protected under international law. All other product names, trademarks and registered trademarks are property of their respective owners. April 2018 4 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Preface The evolving global refugee crisis calls for Kakuma as a Marketplace presents information innovative approaches. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for companies looking to enter the substantial, IFC’s engagement begins in Kakuma town and yet mostly untapped market, in Kakuma. refugee camp in northwest Kenya, which for 25 Commercial and financial data is necessary for years has hosted some of the 20 million people private sector engagement, but there is seldom displaced in the region. Living in Kakuma for information available on refugees outside of decades with little prospect of returning home, academic, development, and humanitarian becoming a Kenyan citizen, or being resettled in studies. Through its findings, we hope that a developed country, the options for the camp’s this study might lay the foundation for private residents are limited. initiatives to harness and strengthen the existing business opportunities in Kakuma While traveling to Kakuma camp at UNHCR’s to the benefit of the refugees and the host invitation, we discovered a vibrant though community – and for refugees to lead self- informal market. Buzzing street shops, internet determined lives. cafés, restaurants, and beauty salons showed the potential of the private sector. However, what we saw had yet to be measured or monetized. Kakuma as a Marketplace is a consumer and market study, which examines the camp and town through the lens of a private firm looking Daniela Henrike Klau-Panhans to enter a new market. The study included Senior Operations Officer, a survey of 1,400 households in the refugee World Bank camp and neighboring town. Rather than focusing on humanitarian or development needs of refugees and the host community, we considered Kakuma camp and town as a single commercial and financial market – collecting data on consumption levels and patterns, consumer preferences, financial literacy, access to finance, telecommunications, employment, Luba Shara and business ownership. Senior Operations Officer, IFC To highlight the types of opportunities that exist or might be possible for the private sector, the team also interviewed companies already operating in Kakuma camp and town or considering entering the market. The sample covered a variety of sectors, including retail, sanitation, and energy. Key aspects of each company’s business model and the incentives to enter refugee camps provide a sense of the potential. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 5 Acknowledgments Conducting research in Kakuma refugee camp was not business as usual. The camp’s remoteness, size, and cultural, ethnic, and linguistic diversity added to the complexity of interviewing people in a confined environment. The study’s development and completion was the result of cooperation between IFC’s Fragile and Conflict Situations Africa Unit, the World Bank’s Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group, UNHCR (the UN Refugee Agency), and the Nairobi-based Sagaci Research Group. First and foremost, we would like to thank our respondents in Kakuma refugee camp and town, who graciously opened their homes to our enumerators and provided responses to many, often sensitive, questions. We appreciate UNHCR providing access to the camp, sharing the cost, and educating the team on the fundamentals of humanitarian operations. Without UNHCR Kenya’s logistical and organizational support, the study would not have come to fruition. Our special gratitude to Raouf Mazou (UNHCR representative in Kenya), and Yonatan Araya (UNHCR Senior Global Solutions and Development Officer) for being our champions through the process, connecting us to the right people, and making things happen. Experts from Sagaci Research developed a sample, helped fine-tune the consumer part of our survey instrument, collected data in Kakuma, and analyzed information. Sagaci’s efforts were led by Charles Ballard and included Valentine Mathenge, Nathan Mpoyi, Danish Owiti, and Moses Machemo. The quality of the study’s findings benefited greatly from their professionalism, understanding of the private sector, and receptiveness to our requirements and feedback. We would like to thank Rahul Oka and Rieti Gengo, two anthropologists from the University of Notre Dame in the United States, who provided support with understanding the camp’s dynamics and interpreting the findings. The report benefited from being peer reviewed by Manuel Moses (Kenya Country Manager, IFC), Tigere Muzende (Investment Officer, IFC), Raouf Mazou (UNHCR representative in Kenya), Mohamed Shoman (Senior Operations Manager, UNHCR), Apurva Sanghi (Lead Economist, World Bank), Xavier Devictor (Adviser, World Bank), and Joanna de Berry (Senior Social Development Specialist, World Bank). A number of advisers provided overall guidance to the team at all stages of the project. For their advice and encouragement, the team is especially grateful to Manuel Moses and Caroline Bahnson, Senior Operations Officer from the World Bank’s Forced Displacement Team. We also gratefully acknowledge the funding and support from Ireland, the Netherlands, and Norway, which support our Conflict-Affected Situations in Africa Initiative (CASA).2 Kakuma as a Marketplace was developed during discussions between Michel Botzung (Manager, IFC), Raouf Mazou (UNHCR representative in Kenya), Apurva Sanghi (Lead Economist, World Bank), and Yonatan Araya (UNHCR Senior Global Solutions and Development Officer) on the potential role of the private sector in the protracted refugee situations in Kakuma and Dadaab. The study was led by Luba Shara (Senior Operations Officer, IFC) and Daniela Henrike Klau-Panhans (Senior Operations Officer, World Bank). The report was written and produced with the support of Vishal Patel (Consultant, IFC) and Neha Sud (Communications Officer), who provided editorial guidance and input. The report is a product of IFC’s Fragile and Conflict Situations Africa team, led by Michel Botzung. Clarity Editorial copy-edited and designed the layout of the report. A team at Communications Development, led by Bruce Ross-Larson, provided further edits. The team would also like to extend its thanks to all others who have helped with the process. 6 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Contents Preface 5 Acknowledgments 6 Figures & Boxes 8 Study Assumptions and Limitations 10 Kakuma as a Marketplace – Overview 13 A vibrant informal economy – more than 2,000 businesses 14 Opportunities for doing business in a $56 million market 16 Telecommunications and mobile banking opportunities 16 Challenges to investing in Kakuma 17 Chapter 1. Know Your Market – A Snapshot of Kakuma 19 Getting to and from Kakuma 19 Population 20 Subcamps and demographics 20 Employment 24 Types of jobs 26 Incomes 27 Consumption – $56.2 million a year 30 Chapter 2. A Vibrant Informal Economy 35 Business ownership 37 Starting a business 41 Chapter 3. Opportunities for Doing Business in a $56 Million Market 45 Retail trade 46 Telecommunications and mobile money 52 Banking 55 Access to credit 57 Education 60 Housing 61 Sanitation 61 Energy 66 Chapter 4. Challenges to Investing in Kakuma 69 Legal and regulatory limitations 69 Level of informality 69 Low education 70 Low financial literacy 72 Low savings 76 High cost of doing business 77 Chapter 5. Outlook 79 The way forward 80 Methodology 82 References 84 Notes 85 KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 7 Figures Figure 1 Retail businesses by type in Kakuma camp 14 Figure 2 Total annual household consumption 15 Figure 3 Mobile phone prices and market 17 Figure 1.1 Kakuma camp within the region 20 Figure 1.2 Population of Kakuma camp, 1992–2016 20 Figure 1.3 Kakuma camp layout 20 Figure 1.4 Kakuma camp population by nationality 21 Figure 1.5 Kakuma subcamp population by nationality 21 Figure 1.6 Revenue-generating activities before arrival 24 Figure 1.7 Professional status by location and nationality 24 Figure 1.8 Employment status by gender 25 Figure 1.9 Education and employment status in camp 25 Figure 1.10 Main employers in camp and town 26 Figure 1.11 Most common jobs in camp and town 26 Figure 1.12 Share of households with regular income by nationality 27 Figure 1.13 Average income 27 Figure 1.14 Sources of income in camp and town 29 Figure 1.15 Total annual household consumption 30 Figure 1.16 Total annual refugee household consumption in Kakuma camp 31 Figure 1.17 Total annual grocery consumption in Kakuma camp and town 32 Figure 1.18 Penetration rates for various food items 32 Figure 2.1 Retail businesses and markets by location in Kakuma camp 35 Figure 2.2 Business activities in camp and town 36 Figure 2.3 Rates of business registration in camp and town 38 Figure 2.4 Business ownership, registration, and initial investment by gender in camp 40 Figure 2.5 Share of business owners/self-employed by nationality and education 41 Figure 2.6 Interest in business ownership 42 Figure 2.7 Interest in business types and constraints to ownership 42 Figure 2.8 Initial median investment for new businesses by nationality 43 Figure 2.9 Source of funds for new business investment by nationality 43 Figure 3.1 Supermarket potential 45 Figure 3.2 Rice and pasta brand awareness, penetration, and appreciation 46 Figure 3.3 Baking flour brand awareness, penetration, and appreciation 47 Figure 3.4 Penetration and expenditure on fruit and vegetables by camp zone and town 47 Figure 3.5 Monthly availability and prices of livestock and meat in Kakuma camp 48 Figure 3.6 Penetration of and expenditure on meat 49 Figure 3.7 Monthly availability and prices of cereal and pulses in Kakuma camp 49 Figure 3.8 Penetration of and expenditure on cereals 50 Figure 3.9 Consumption of equipment 50 Figure 3.10 Lighting sources in camp and town 52 Figure 3.11 Mobile phone prices and market 53 Figure 3.12 Mobile phone network providers, internet penetration, and mobile-money penetration 54 Figure 3.13 Mobile phone penetration by gender 54 Figure 3.14 Mobile phone penetration 54 Figure 3.15 Bank account holders in camp, by gender and education 55 Figure 3.16 Bank account penetration 55 Figure 3.17 Access to loans by nationality 57 Figure 3.18 Purpose of loans 58 Figure 3.19 Financial institution loan penetration 59 Figure 3.20 Family and friends loan penetration and amounts 59 Figure 3.21 Shop loan penetration and amounts 59 Figure 3.22 Primary, secondary, and post-secondary schools in Kakuma camp 60 Figure 3.23 Housing type in subcamps and town 61 8 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Figure 3.24 Willingness to pay for improved housing 61 Figure 3.25 Sanitation types in camp and town 62 Figure 4.1 Informal tax penetration 70 Figure 4.2 Education level in camp and town 70 Figure 4.3 Education status by gender 71 Figure 4.4 Respondent education level by country of origin 71 Figure 4.5 Financial literacy information sources 73 Figure 4.6 Awareness and comprehension of “bank” and “interest” 73 Figure 4.7 Awareness and comprehension of “mobile money” and “mobile banking” 74 Figure 4.8 Awareness and comprehension of “tax,” “ATM,” and “bank fees” 74 Figure 4.9 Awareness and comprehension of “microfinance,” “profit,” and “loans” 75 Figure 4.10 Average savings over the last year 76 Figure 4.11 Purpose for saving 76 Figure 4.12 Methods for saving money 77 Figure 4 Overview of survey sample 83 Boxes Box 1.1 “Bamba Chakula” – Get your food 28 Box 3.1 Copia – A distributor partnering with small retailers for rural customers 51 Box 3.2 Equity Bank – Bank accounts and access to credit for Kakuma camp and town 56 Box 3.3 Sanivation – Providing an inexpensive and safe energy source for cooking and heating 62 Box 3.4 Sanergy – Safe sanitation in informal settlements and affordable fertilizer for farmers 65 Box 3.5 M-Kopa – Using home solar systems to light Africa 66 Box 3.6 D.light – Providing efficient solar lighting to the world 67 KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 9 Over its 25-year history, the population of Kakuma camp has been in flux. There have been constant outflows and inflows from various countries, which risk depopulating the camp. ©IFC and Luba Shara Study Assumptions and Limitations To identify business opportunities, challenges, and better understand the dynamics of the market in Kakuma camp and town, the study focused on data relevant to commercial firms, social enterprises, and local entrepreneurs wanting to start or scale-up their businesses in the Kakuma area. Taking into account the study’s goal, the remoteness of the camp, and the complexity of its political economy, the study is based on the following assumptions and limitations: Timeframe – This study is a snapshot of Kakuma camp often the main decision makers and earners. The text and town from October and November 2016, when the notes where the figures might be affected by this. For data collection was conducted. Additional information example, surveying only heads of household would likely was collected during interviews and scoping missions affect the rate of mobile phone ownership, as heads between December 2016 and the publication of of household are more likely to own a phone than the the report. general population. Heads of household – To more accurately create a Political economy – As this report is based on a picture of consumption, employment, and finances consumer and market study, it does not provide full the study interviewed heads of household who are insight into the underlying political economy of the 10 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Sign marking the start of Kakuma town camp, a detailed analysis of local actors, or an analysis the aforementioned pastoralist community. of drivers of fragility. To fully understand local dynamics and the potential impact of any private sector Population – The study assumes Kakuma camp will intervention in the area, a further political economy remain in place for the foreseeable future. Over its 25- assessment is recommended. year history, the population of the camp has been in flux. There have been constant outflows and inflows Geographic scope – For the purposes of this study, from various countries, which risk depopulating the Kakuma town is defined by its urban economic camp. In addition, there are political risks: requests for boundaries, which includes the main road and adjacent camp closure could arise, as seen with Dadaab camp alleys. As the study is looking at the area from the in 2016. However, the majority of refugees in Kakuma private sector perspective, it is practical to compare are from South Sudan. The situation there has not the stationary, urban, and densely populated area of been improving, making return unlikely in the short town with the stationary, urban, and densely populated to medium term. On the issue of closure, the politics camp. However, the political boundaries of Kakuma surrounding Dadaab are more complex and Kakuma town are much larger and include mobile pastoralists. does not face the same concerns. Moreover, the Turkana After discussions with UNHCR, the population of Kakuma County Government, where Kakuma is located, sees the town was defined as 60,000, with the understanding potential economic benefit of refugee integration and that this number fluctuates based on the movement of would not likely support calls for closure. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 11 Turkana woman from Kakuma town ©IFC and Dominic Chavez Kakuma as a Marketplace O V E R V I E W I n a remote area of northwest Kenya benefit from its findings: commercial lies a sprawling mass of tents and firms (banks, microfinance institutions, shelters made of mud brick and telecommunications companies, and cement blocks. It is Kakuma camp, small and medium enterprises from one of the largest and longest-standing other sectors); social enterprises refugee camps in the world, which was (companies that look to attain and established in 1992 for refugees fleeing maximize financial, social, and conflict in Sudan. Set on the border of environmental impacts); and local the town of Kakuma, home to Kenya’s entrepreneurs (from the refugee and Turkana people, Kakuma camp is a host communities). By collecting melting pot of more than 160,0003 empirical data on revenues, consumption refugees and displaced patterns, consumer preferences, and people from South financial transactions Sudan, Somalia, Kakuma in the refugee camp Ethiopia, Burundi, the and neighboring town, Democratic Republic of the study addresses the the Congo, and Sudan. lack of market information that is necessary for the For 26 Kakuma camp has years, KENYA identified private sector players to start or scale up provided refuge their operations in the to many of the Kakuma area. 20  million displaced people in Sub-Saharan Africa.4 Some Attracting new private of the camp’s residents have lived sector players to the area, there for decades, like those in other expanding the operations of African refugee camps and settlements: existing firms, and supporting Dadaab in Kenya, Dollo Ado in Ethiopia, local entrepreneurs have the potential and Bidi Bidi in Uganda. Over the years, to expand job opportunities for refugees have engaged in different refugees and the host community, livelihood activities, creating a vibrant improve services, provide more choice, informal economy. Kakuma camp has reduce prices, and contribute to self- economic potential even though it is reliance. The increased role of the still reliant on aid. private sector would also enhance the socioeconomic integration of refugees The aim of this study is to better with their host communities, while understand Kakuma as a potential contributing to the development of the market and identify business hosting region, in the spirit of the global opportunities and challenges for the agenda of the Comprehensive Refugee private sector. The study identified Response Framework and, more widely, three types of players that might of “leaving no-one behind.” KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 13 A vibrant informal economy – prominently in both areas are grocery stores, food more than 2,000 businesses stalls, restaurants, cafés, and M-Pesa kiosks.7 Visitors to Kakuma are often struck by the buzz of business activity in the area. The camp’s informal The businesses cater to refugees and town economy is thriving, with more than 2,000 residents, whose total household consumption businesses, including 14 wholesalers.5 Businesses is conservatively estimated at KES 5.8  billion tend to meet daily needs for Kakuma’s residents, ($56.2  million) annually.8 The camp, with 160,000 providing food, cosmetics, mobile phones, and other registered inhabitants at the time of the survey, sundries. There are four major markets in subcamp spends KES 1.7  billion ($16.5 million), while the one, two in subcamp two, three in subcamp three, town, with a population of about 60,000, spends and one in subcamp four. Kakuma town has 232 about KES 4.1  billion ($39.7  million). Consumption shops along the main road and adjacent alleys.6 in Kakuma is substantial, but the local community still lags behind national consumption in Kenya, and Despite the legal and practical limitations refugees refugees are even further behind. In 2016, the per face – the inability to gain formal employment, capita household consumption for Kenya was more move, or own property – about 12 percent of refugee than $800 a year (2010 dollars),9 while Kakuma respondents identify as business owners or are self- town was at $602 and the camp at $94. employed. Of the respondents living in Kakuma town, 39  percent own businesses. Although this After decades of co-existence, it is not uncommon difference is wide, both own a similar number of for refugee camps and host communities to businesses (on average, respondents in the camp become socioeconomically interdependent. In own 1.15 businesses, town locals 1.08). Kakuma, refugees hire Turkana locals as porters, shopkeepers, security guards, or casual labor (to More telling is the fact that both the camp and help with housework). And Kakuma town residents town have similar types of businesses, indicating sell livestock and charcoal to refugees, who do not an overlap. Most business owners run “dukas” have easy access to such resources.10 (small general stores), which account for 31 percent of businesses in the town and 33 percent in the Starting a business camp. Across both areas of Kakuma, 39  percent of The rate of business registration with a Kenyan duka shops are owned by Kenyans and located in administration was 38 percent for respondents in the town, while 24  percent are owned by Somalis the camp and 51 percent for those in the town. In in the camp. A duka typically provides limited job additional interviews, refugee business owners opportunities – 70 percent of owners do not employ stated that they pay a fee to a representative of the DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT any other people. Other businesses that feature local authorities and receive proof of payment that is typically valid for one day, one week, or one month. According to Kenyan legislation, refugees can register their business as a limited liability company or as Figure 1 Retail businesses by type in Kakuma camp a single business name with the national registrar and receive a single business permit from the county Retail businesses by type in Kakuma camp government based on national registration. However, national business registration is a formal process that - Source: Vemuru et al. 2016 - requires certain documentation, such as an Alien ID, 566 registration with the Revenue Authority, national health insurance, and a pension plan, which refugees 413 often lack. It is thus unclear whether the respondents 329 are legally registered or mistake the payments they make to local representatives for registration as the survey process did not entail the checking 141 134 of documents. 99 91 82 63 52 45 42 33 5 5 Registration is not the only hurdle. Among Kakuma residents interested in starting a business, Tailoring Butchery Vegetables Coffee/tea Mechanic Clothing/shoes Fruit Other Barber Hardware Photo Duka Electronics/phone Cosmetics/salon Hotel/ restaurant 99  percent of those in the town and 95  percent of those in the camp lack the capital to do so. Refugees wanting to own a business are also constrained by the high rental charges (16 percent), movement © Sagaci Research Ltd 14 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE on Turkana Hosts, Kenya, November 2016, p.216-217 ma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 0 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 2 Total annual household consumption Figure 2 Total annual household consumption, in KES millions - Estimate based on household expenditure survey - 170 5,810 2,663 863 702 496 389 293 174 59 1,619 K-Town 4,113 356 206 560 752 355 75 28 1,044 K-Camp 1,697 140 87 142 36 111 34 Clothing © Sagaci Research Ltd TOTAL Consumer goods Education Housing & lighting Health Communication Entertainment Transportation Equipment & electronics Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 1 restrictions (13  percent), lack of space available organizations (NGOs). In the town, 79  percent for rent (12  percent), lack of support from camp of respondents are employed by Kenyans, while administration (11 percent), and the time it takes to 58 percent of respondents in the camp are employed get a travel pass (10 percent). by non-profits. Refugees employed by NGOs are hired as “incentive workers” due to laws restricting The gender gap formal employment. In this arrangement, refugees Kakuma’s small shops may offer different types of work as volunteers and are paid incentives much goods and services, but they tend to have one thing lower than what would be paid to a Kenyan in the in common–the owner is usually male. Women same position.11 While the variety of businesses and are less likely to be entrepreneurs than men, and services provided in the camp suggests a level of their businesses are more likely to be informal and economic independence, humanitarian assistance have less invested. In the camp, 23 percent of male remains the main source of income and employment respondents have a business or are self-employed, for refugees. More people are unemployed in the while only 7 percent of women respondents are self- camp (27  percent) than in the town (14 percent). In employed. Women entrepreneurs in Kakuma camp addition, 13 percent of women are unemployed but are less likely to register their business (22  percent) not looking for work, compared with only 8 percent than men (49  percent). Their businesses are also of men. generally smaller, with a lower initial investment (KES 6,925  on average, compared with KES 16,652 for businesses owned by men). This difference does not apply in Kakuma town, where 40  percent of the men and 39  percent of the women own a Kakuma’s small shops may offer different business, indicating women in the town also operate types of goods and services, but they tend largely in the informal economy. to have one thing in common – the owner Earning a living is usually a man. Women are less likely Aside from owning a business, there are other to be entrepreneurs than men, and their prospects for employment for refugees and the businesses are more likely to be informal host community. Formal jobs in Kakuma town are and have less invested. primarily based on the local economy, while salaried jobs in the camp depend on nongovernmental KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 15 About 84  percent of households in Kakuma town might be considered less essential due to financial claim to have a regular income, compared with constraints or culturally unacceptable to some 73  percent in the camp (the figure for the camp groups living in the camp. includes the World Food Programme’s e-vouchers for food, called Bamba Chakula, as a source of income). The number of people buying fruit and vegetables, and Levels of income and employment are lower in the the amount they spend, varies across the camp and camp because refugees face legal restrictions, have the town. Overall, less than 40 percent of households insufficient skills or capital to start a business, lack across the camp and town bought fruit and formal job opportunities, and have limited access vegetables in the four weeks preceding interviews. to external markets. Households in the camp that The percentage was higher in Kakuma camp two and do earn regular incomes generally do not earn Kakuma town (58 percent). While subcamp three has large amounts – only about 2.9  percent of refugee a low penetration rate of 26  percent, it also has the households earn more than the minimum wage largest proportion of buyers. The variations could be of KES 10,000.12 the result of consumer preferences or differences in spending power between nationalities: subcamp four Opportunities for doing business generally hosts the newest arrivals, who tend to have in a $56 million market less money and thus have the lowest consumption of Kakuma’s multitude of shops, traders, and daily fruit and vegetables. economic activity indicate that the camp and town present a significant market. The study estimated Meat and livestock are produced locally, with supplies the total consumption to be $56 million, with the coming mainly from Kalobeyei, Kibich, and Lokipoto, camp contributing 29 percent (KES 1.7 billion, or $16.5 as well as Ethiopia. In general, meat prices are fairly million). This figure is likely conservative as it does low.13 However, in March and April, prices increase in not include in-kind aid, distribution of products, response to decreasing supply.14 or the provision of free services by humanitarian agencies. The findings further indicate that there is Aside from food, people spend their money on room to grow as the demand for access to finance household goods. The most popular household is high and respondents stated that they are willing purchase in Kakuma camp and town is the TV, to pay for improved energy, housing, and sanitation followed by motorbikes and solar panels. The market services. Most of the money spent by residents in for household equipment is worth an estimated the town and the camp goes towards consumer KES 174  million ($1.7 million). Power generation is a goods (46 percent). The consumer goods market is significant contributor – spending on solar panels valued at KES 2.7 billion ($26.2  million), with rice/ and power generators combined is the second largest pasta, ugali flour, and milk powder making up the expenditure on household equipment after TVs. In three largest components (each worth more than addition, the most common consumable nonfood KES 300  million, or $2.9  million). Currently, most items people spend their money on are cooking fuel groceries are provided by small shops and traders, and charcoal, electricity, loan repayments, airtime, but the high level of consumption could support one and mobile phone charging, most of which are or two supermarkets servicing the camp and town. related to energy.15 Although fragmented, spending on energy-related products (generation, charging, Tapping the consumer goods market fuel) would be substantial if combined. This suggests Consumer patterns and preferences in the camp that there is a market for a commercial solution that and town indicate where business opportunities for provides energy and lighting at a lower cost. specific products and brands could lie. While many consumer goods, such as rice/pasta, are purchased Telecommunications and mobile in both areas, others are more specific to their banking opportunities market. For example, due to cultural preferences, The study indicates the substantial demand for Kenyans favor ugali flour, while other nationalities communications and mobile services. Mobile phone prefer baking flour. In the town, residents spend penetration is high both in the camp (69 percent) and KES 250 million on ugali flour compared with KES town (85  percent), making it a potentially attractive 102 million ($988,372) in the camp. Town respondents market for mobile banking. spend only KES 88 million ($852,713) on baking flour compared with KES 167 million ($1.6 million) spent The mobile handset market in Kakuma camp and town in the camp. Spending on other goods like personal is estimated at KES 49  million ($480,000) annually, care items and alcohol are also low when compared assuming a three-year lifetime. About 59 percent of the with consumption in the town, because these items market is from the town and 41 percent is from the camp. 16 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 3 Figure 3 Mobile phone prices and market Purchase price of mobile phones Total market for mobile phones “How much did you pay for your mobile phone? (in KES)” - In KES millions - - 1,031 interviews, in % - Assuming a 3-year lifespan Average price paid: 49 KES 5,522 KES 3,941 16% 20 5% 0% 36% Unknown price & non-owner 9% More than KES 25,000 8% 1% 0% KES 15,000 to KES 25,000 5% 5% 5% KES 10,000 to KES 15,000 11% 5% KES 7,000 to KES 10,000 8% KES 5,000 to KES 7,000 KES 3,000 to KES 5,000 29 42% 30% KES 1,000 to KES 3,000 KES 500 to KES 1,000 Less than KES 500 10% © Sagaci Research Ltd 0% 2% 1% K-town K-camp K-camp K-town Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 2 The most common purchase price of a phone in both with 30  percent and 7  percent in the town. This has the town and the camp is between KES 1,000 and an adverse link to employment status, business KES 3,000. An important caveat: all respondents ownership, income, and savings. More people are were heads of household and, as a result, more likely unemployed in the camp (27 percent) than in the town to own a phone than the average inhabitant. (14  percent), and the average monthly income in the camp is about one-third of that in the town (KES 5,597 Mobile money is more widely used in the town than compared with KES 15,863). in the camp. About 86 percent of respondents in the town use their phone/SIM for mobile banking or Beyond education, other more practical problems keep money transfers, while only 31  percent do so in the people from reaching their full potential. The camp and camp. Banks and mobile network providers offer town have limited access to markets due to poor road mobile-money services in both areas, but there is a connections and the lack of a commercial airport. Many significant opportunity to increase penetration in refugees and host community members do not have the camp. Growth in this segment would depend the funds to set up a business, nor do they know how on improving refugees’ currently low financial literacy to access them. Financial literacy is low, and access to and access to Alien ID cards, which are necessary to finance is limited. About 73 percent of respondents in the register with M-Pesa. camp and 45 percent in the town have no information on financial matters. This is correlated with low levels Challenges to investing in Kakuma of savings, with 58 percent of those in the town and While this report indicates various opportunities to only 21 percent of those in the camp having saved in the invest in new or existing businesses in Kakuma, the last 12 months. Respondents in the town (29 percent) path to private sector success will be complex. are also more likely than those in the camp (24 percent) to receive a loan from a financial institution. Local Kakuma’s productive potential lies in its people, but Kenyans are more likely to use a loan for education or many of them lack the education they need to put their a business investment, while those in the camp mostly skills and talents to use, whether as business owners, borrow money from local shops to buy food on credit. employers, or employees. More than 50  percent of refugees have no schooling in comparison with The following chapters of this report will delve into 33  percent of those in the town. The rate of high further details on the aspects covered in this overview, school education or vocational training for refugees offering data and insights on Kakuma’s potential as is 19  percent and 3  percent respectively, compared a marketplace. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 17 An Ethiopian refugee living in the camp who runs a retail and wholesale business serving both camp and the host community ©IFC and Dominic Chavez C H A P T E R 1 Know Your Market – A Snapshot of Kakuma K akuma camp and town were closed. The Somali population are located in the remote, increased again when 15,000 refugees mostly arid Turkana county in from Dadaab21 were relocated to northwest Kenya. Although it Kakuma in 2009. In 2005, with the is one of Kenya’s largest counties, Turkana signing of the South Sudanese Peace has a population of only around 1.4 million Accord, around 37,500 South Sudanese people.16 The county has traditionally refugees were repatriated. However, been home to nomadic pastoralists, who conflict broke out once again, leading rely on livestock rearing and subsistence to almost 80,000 South Sudanese farming. refugees fleeing to Kakuma since the end of 2013. Marginalized in the past, Turkana was often overlooked by the government, The camp was originally designed to businesses, and the donor community.17 host about 100,000 refugees, but, Poverty is extreme, at 90  percent, and at the time of the study (October – more than 30 percent of the population is November 2016), it had about 160,000 malnourished.18 inhabitants, representing nine major nationalities. Water availability is very limited – there are only two permanent rivers in Turkana Getting to and from Kakuma county, 80  percent of the county is Kakuma struggles with market considered arid or very arid,19 and droughts integration22 because poor road are commonplace and recurrent. But the conditions hinder the movement discovery of oil in 2012 and a vast aquifer of goods and people.23 The road in 2013 could change things. While initial conditions also affect the availability of tests indicate that parts of the aquifer perishable food as the average resupply are too saline for human consumption, time in the camp doubles from 1.5 the water could potentially be used for days in the dry season to 3 days in the livestock and agriculture in Turkana. rainy season.24 The closest commercial Other areas that have yet to be tested airport is four hours away in Lodwar might have saline levels low enough for and the route is not secure, limiting human consumption.20 the times when people can travel and increasing the costs. However, Kakuma Kakuma camp was established in 1992 camp is fairly well supplied, thanks to to receive refugees fleeing conflict in being on the northwest corridor, where Sudan. A year later, it took in Ethiopians a main road connects Nairobi with escaping the aftermath of a collapsed Kitale, Lokichogio, and South Sudan. In government. Since then, the camp has addition, the national government has experienced major population shifts begun upgrading the Eldoret-Lodwar as refugees have come and gone. In highway, which will pass through 1997, Somali refugees began to arrive in Kakuma all the way to the South Kakuma when Kenya’s coastal camps Sudanese capital of Juba. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 19 Figure 1.1 Kakuma camp within the region Population About 85  percent of the camp’s 160,000 refugees SOUTH ETHIOPIA arrived within the last 10 years and more than SUDAN half within the last five.25 Kakuma camp is now an SOMALIA established, though informal, urban settlement and Kakuma DEMOCRATIC Refugee Camp when combined with the town can be considered a REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO Uganda single market. In late 2016, about 220,000 people lived in Kakuma camp and town combined, making it KENYA comparable to Kenya’s 10th largest urban area.26 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT RWANDA international boundary Undetermined international boundary Subcamps and demographics UNITED The refugee camp has four subcamps, numbered in the 1.2 Administrative boundary BURUNDI REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map order they were opened. The subcamps, rather than do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Source: UNHCR 2017. consisting of rows of tents, are like small towns, with a mix of mud and cement homes, tents, and commercial centers. Figure 1.2 Population of Kakuma camp, 1992–2016 The camp is a melting pot of nationalities and Population of Kakuma camp through the years, peaking at close ethnicities. Its demographic breakdown shows that to 200,000 before 2016 most of the residents are South Sudanese (55 percent) Population in K-camp and Somali (26 percent). There are also refugees from 200,000 Large increase in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, population 150,000 Ethiopia, and Sudan, among others. The camp’s diversity is even greater when looking at ethnicity 100,000 within nationalities. The South Sudanese camp population, for example, is divided into Nuer and 50,000 Dinka, and the Somali population into Somali Somali 0 and Somali Bantu. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 26% Source: World Bank Group & UNHCR 2016, “Yes” In My Backyard? 55% Somali © Sagaci Research Ltd Figure 1.3 Kakuma camp layout y backyard, p.8-11 South of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential SudanesePage 4 The distribution of nationalities differs greatly among Kakuma’s four subcamps. Subcamps one, two, and three have diverse populations, while subcamp four, hosting the newest arrivals, is primarily South Sudanese. Before arriving in Kakuma, most refugees were farmers or reared livestock. Only 7  percent had a business before they arrived at the camp. Given the harsh climate, scarcity of water, and constraints to livestock ownership for refugees, farming or livestock rearing is not a viable option for refugees, making it difficult for them to earn money from traditional occupations or to leverage their skills in a new and unfamiliar job market.27 20 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 1.4 Figure 1.4 Kakuma camp population by nationality Actual camp population - # of people in Kakuma camp & town, split by country of origin - 5,819 161,284 5,908 4% 9,673 4% 9,694 6% 41,394 6% 26% 60,000 88,796 100% 100% 55% South Sudan and Somalia combined are representing 80%+ of the total camp population © Sagaci Research Ltd South Sudan Somalia Sudan DRC Burundi Ethiopia TOTAL TOTAL K-Camp K-Town Source: UNHCR statistics, October 2016 Source: Economic UNHCR assessment Kenya of Kakuma Operation Refugee Statistics, Camp | January October 2017 | Sagaci Research 2016. | Confidential Page 6 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT The distribution of nationalities differs greatly among Kakuma’s four subcamps. Subcamps one, two, and three have diverse populations, while subcamp four, hosting 5 the newest arrivals, is primarily South Sudanese. Figure 1.5 Kakuma subcamp population by nationality All subcamps host a diverse population except subcamp 4 Breakdown of refugees by country of origin and camp, UNHCR population statistics, 2015 South Sudan K-camp 1 54% 29% 7% Somali K-camp 2 23% 51% 6% 10% 5% Ethiopian K-camp 3 44% 34% 11% DRC Burundi K-camp 4 84% Other 5% KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 21 A water collection point in camp where water is provided on a fixed schedule to residents ©IFC and Dominic Chavez Given the harsh climate, scarcity of water, and constraints to livestock ownership for refugees, farming or livestock rearing is not a viable option for refugees, making it difficult for them to earn money from traditional occupations or to leverage their skills in a new and unfamiliar job market. - Based on 2,000 interviews, in Dec. 15 - DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT K-camp 1 49% 7% 29% 10% 5% K-camp 2 45% 29% 11% 7% 8% Figure 1.6 Revenue-generating activities before arrival28 K-camp 3 50% 30% 6% 7% 7% Main revenue generating activity before arrival - Based on 2,000 interviews, in Dec. 15 - K-camp 4 48% 23% 16% 7% 6% K-camp 1 49% 7% 29% 10% 5% Farming or livestock rearing Unskilled labor None/ student / housewife/ unemployed © Sagaci Research Ltd Business K-camp 2 45% 29% 11% 7% 8% Other Source: Refugees Vulnerability Study Kakuma, Kenya, May 2016, p.21 K-camp 3 Economic assessment 50% of Kakuma Refugee Camp 30% | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential 6% 7% 7% Page 8 K-camp 4 48% 23% 16% 7% 6% Farming or livestock rearing Unskilled labor None/ student / housewife/ unemployed © Sagaci Research Ltd Business Other Employment which reflects the legal grey area in which they must ential More people are unemployed in the camp Page 8 Sustainable business growth and reduction in work. (27  percent) than in the town (14  percent). Despite unemployment depend to a large extent on easing high unemployment and legal limitations, 12 percent the limitations for refugees to work, own, or use of refugee respondents identify as business owners property legally, and move without restrictions. or self-employed. While this figure is lower than the 39  percent of respondents in the town who own Many women in the town and the camp do not have businesses, refugees face significant legal barriers jobs. Almost half of the women surveyed (49 percent) that locals do not. Almost half of all respondents in the identified themselves as homemakers, compared camp identified their professional status as “other,” with 1 percent of men. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 1.7 Professional status by location and nationality 1.7 29 Professional status by nationality “Which one(s) of these statements best describe your professional status?” - 1,417 interviews, in % - 311 1,106 524 355 68 52 43 36 14 Others 17% 19% 22% 21% 38% Unemployed 14% 48% 47% 51% 56% 25% 21% 25% Employed 30% 13% B A 21% 25% 28% 27% 19% 28% 29% 31% Business owners / 11% 39% 13% 21% self-employed 36% 28% 25% 7% 17% 19% 12% 9% © Sagaci Research Ltd 5% K-Town K-Camp South Sudan Somalia DRC Ethiopia Sudan Burundi Rwanda A B A B C E F G H Note: Others = housewives, retired, students Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 9 24 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 1.8 Figure 1.8 Employment status by gender Employment status by gender -“Which one(s) of these statements best describe your professional status?” - 1,417 interviews - 49% A B 31% B 21% B 17% B A 14% 13% 11% 11% B 8% 8% 5% 7% 1% 2% 1% 0% Housewife Employed Self-employed Unemployed Unemployed Student Business owner Retired & Independent (looking) (not looking) © Sagaci Research Ltd A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B Male Female Source: Sagaci Research analysis Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 10 In addition, 13 percent of women are unemployed but to be employed. Of the unemployed respondents in not looking for work, compared with only 8 percent the camp, 65 percent have no schooling. Of those who of men. About 59 percent of men identify as employed have jobs, only 20 percent have no schooling. Among or business owners/self-employed, compared with business owners and the self-employed, 33  percent only 21 percent of women. have no schooling, indicating the complementarity of entrepreneurial skills to formal education. The study findings show that education Women’s lower levels of education correlate with is positively correlated with employment high unemployment (73  percent of all women status, business ownership, and income. respondents). Refugees with more education are more likely DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 1.9 1.9 1.9 Education and employment status in camp Figure Education level and employment status in camp -“What is the highest Education level level of education and you personally employment status in achieved?”- have camp 1,106 interviews - -“What is the highest level of education you personally have achieved?”- 65% 1,106 interviews - No schooling 65% Primary No schooling High school Primary Vocation/Technical training High school University degree completed Vocation/Technical training University degree completed 21% 42% 54% 33% 21% 11% 28% 28% 39% 20% 20% 42% 54% 12% 33% 7% 28% 28% 8% 39% 11% 2% 1% 20% 20% 4% 5% 2% 1% 12% 8% Unemployed 2% 1% 7% Employed Business owners 4% 5% Others2% 1% /self-employed Ltd Unemployed Employed Business owners Others Sagaci Research /self-employed Ltd Note: Unemployed=Looking for jobs, not looking for jobs and housewives KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 25 Research Source: Sagaci Research analysis Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 11 © Sagaci © Note: Unemployed=Looking for jobs, not looking for jobs and housewives Source: Sagaci Research analysis Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 11 Types of jobs workers,” which means they are volunteers and paid Kakuma’s population draws on various sources to earn incentives much lower than what would be paid to a its living. Formal jobs in Kakuma town are primarily Kenyan in the same position.30 based on the local economy, while salaried jobs in the camp depend on NGOs. In the town, 79 percent While the variety of businesses and services of respondents are employed by Kenyans, while provided in the camp suggests a level of economic 58 percent of respondents in the camp are employed independence, humanitarian assistance remains by NGOs. Due to obstacles to formal employment, the main source of income and employment refugees that work with NGOs are hired as “incentive for refugees. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 1.10 Main employers in camp and town Main employers in town Main employers in camp “Who are you working for the job?” “Who are you working for the job?” - In K-town 92 interviews, in % - - In K-camp 139 interviews, in % - While the variety of businesses and services Local Kenyans 79% NGO 58% provided in the camp suggest a level of Refugee of NGO 9% different 15% economic independence, nationality Refugee, same humanitarian assistance UNHCR/camp administration 5% nationality & 10% remains the main ethnicity Refugee of Refugee, same source of income and different 3% nationality 9% nationality not ethnicity employment for refugees. Refugee, same UNHCR/camp nationality & 2% 6% administration ethnicity Refugee, same nationality 0% Local Kenyans 2% not ethnicity © Sagaci Research Ltd Other 1% Other 0% and analysis) gee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 12 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 1.11 1.11 Most common jobs in camp and town Figure Most common jobs in town Most common jobs in camp “Which of these jobs is the most recent?” “Which of these jobs is the most recent?” - 92 interviews, in % - - 139 interviews, in % - Car driver 12% Teacher 17% Guard 8% Guard 9% Duka employee 4% Translator 6% barber & hairdresser 4% Community mobiliser 6% House cleaner 4% Duka employee 4% Boda boda driver 4% Cook 4% Nanny 3% Cosmetics store © Sagaci Research Ltd Kart pusher/ 3% 3% employee transporter Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 13 26 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 1.12 Figure 1.12 Share of households with regular income by nationality 31 Share of households with regular income Includes all sources of income - K-camp 1,106 interviews - Only 57% of the large - K-town 311 interviews - South Sudanese group 91% has regular source of 90% 89% 88% 84% income 82% 73% 71% 57% K-Town K-Camp Sudan Somalia Burundi Ethiopia DRC Rwanda South Sudan © Sagaci Research Ltd Employed Kenyans tend to do more low-skill jobs Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) average, they earn almost a third less than those than “formally” employed refugees. Those in the town Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential in the town (KES  5,597 against KES 15,863). Page 14 About tend to work as car drivers, duka employees, barbers, 84 percent of households in Kakuma town claim to and house cleaners. In comparison, refugees often have a regular income, compared with 73 percent of have skilled positions with NGOs. Some of the most households in the camp. Income and employment common jobs in the camp are teacher (17  percent), are lower in the camp because many refugees guard (9  percent), translator (6  percent), and lack the skills and capital to start a business, lack community mobilizer (6 percent). formal employment opportunities, and have limited access to external markets. In addition, while many Incomes households in the camp do earn a regular income, Not all people are paid alike in the Kakuma area. the amount they make is generally quite low as only Despite the fact that some refugees work in jobs 2.9  percent of refugee households earn more than that require a higher level of skill and education, on the minimum wage of KES 10,000.32 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 1.13 Average income 1.13 Average income in Kakuma camp and town “On average, how much do you earn per month, in KES?” “How much on average does he/she gets per month, in KES?” - 1,417 interviews, in % - 15.863 Average income for refugees is: KES 5,597 -35% 7.057 7.000 5.850 5.577 5.573 5.396 5.392 4.571 Kakuma Ethiopia Rwanda Sudan Somalia DRC Others South Burundi © Sagaci Research Ltd town Sudan (Kenyans) Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE Page 15 27 The entrance to a Bamba Chakula shop in camp that also accepts M-Pesa ©IFC and Luba Shara Box 1.1 “Bamba Chakula” – Get your food In 2015, the World Food Programme Kenya launched its new e-voucher program called Bamba Chakula, which literally translates from Swahili to “Get your food.” SIM cards are distributed for free in partnership with “Existing mobile- Safaricom. These SIM cards receive part of the funds based lending and meant for monthly food baskets. financing (such as Using the mobile money feature of the sim card, Bamba Chakula) have a household can chose to buy selected food items laid the groundwork from a list of approved retailers enrolled in the program rather than receiving a predetermined food package all for additional mobile the time. financing.” I-Dev International: In one month in 2016, KES 75 million was transferred to 34,000 households and 201 traders transacted an Clean Cooking average of KES 398,000. Strategy Development Kakuma Transfer value and ration by household size Household size 1 Household size 2+ KES 500 per month KES 300 per person per month + + 210g cereal 294g cereal 60g pulses 60g pulses 40g super cereal plus 40g super cereal plus 35g vegetable oil 35g vegetable oil per person per day per person per day 28 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Income varies by nationality, occupation, gender, earnings from business activities (27 percent), reselling and education. For example, 57 percent of Rwandans rations (12 percent), and gifts/remittances (11 percent). are either employed or business owners/self- The Bamba Chakula vouchers are not, however, employed, compared with only 12  percent of South regarded as a source of income by all households. As Sudanese. In terms of income, Rwandans are also a result, the number of South Sudanese households better off, with an average income of KES 7,000 with no income may seem high because they may not compared to KES 5,392 for South Sudanese. About be reporting vouchers as income. 53  percent of Burundian respondents identify as employed or business owners/self-employed, which A more granular look at sources of income by camp is relatively high, but their average monthly income zones shows that refugees who live in subcamps was the lowest of all the groups, at KES 4,571. Groups where NGOs are located, such as subcamps one and with higher levels of education (Congolese, Ethiopian, two, are more likely to have salaried jobs. Reselling Rwandan, and Sudanese) also have higher incomes. rations is more popular among refugees in subcamp two, which has a predominantly Somali population. South Sudanese have the lowest number of Outside the camp, most town residents get their households with a regular income, at only 57 percent, income from a salary (72 percent). while 91 percent of interviewed Sudanese households earn a regular income. Despite little formal The relationships people make in and out of the education, 90  percent of Somali households have a camp result in financial support in the form of gifts regular income. The Somali community has a long and remittances. They are also a sign of networks history in Turkana. In the 1960s, Somali Isaak and that enable trade, relocation, and information Hawiye traders established trading firms in Kakuma flows from home and the diaspora.34 Ethiopians town. Somali traders owned and ran large shops (35 percent) and Somalis (16 percent) are more likely and petrol stations, while traders from Turkana and to receive remittances than Burundians, Congolese, Meru owned the smaller establishments. Within a and South Sudanese. This is likely a result of the year of the camp’s establishment, Ethiopian, Somali, large diaspora of Ethiopians and Somalis across and some Sudanese refugees had set up retail shops North America, Europe, and the Middle East.35 and restaurants, with products sourced mainly from Remittances are mostly sent through the global three Somali firms in Kakuma town.33 money transfer network called hawala, which in the camp is dominated by Dahabshil, Amel, Dalsan, Refugees draw income from a range of sources, relying and Iftin financial institutions. In 2011, based on on multiple livelihoods and coping strategies. The main estimates from these institutions and M-Pesa source of income for refugees is the Bamba Chakula agents, remittances totaled at least $200,000 e-voucher (57  percent), followed by salaries and/or a month.36 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 1.14 Figure 1.14 Sources of income in camp and town Sources of income – Town Sources of income – Camp % of household having access to this source of income % of household having access to this source of income - K-town 311 interviews - - K-camp 1,106 interviews - Bamba chakula vouchers from UN agencies/ 57% Salary/earnings 72% camp administration Gift/remittances Salary/earnings 27% from friends/family 3% outside the camp Reselling of rations 12% Gift/remittances from friends/family 1% Gift/remittances inside the camp from friends/family 8% outside the camp Gift/remittances From rental houses 1% from friends/family 3% inside the camp KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 29 agaci Research Ltd Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Consumption – $56.2 million a year According to World Bank figures, per capita Household consumption in Kakuma camp and town household consumption in Kenya for 2016 was more is estimated at KES 5.8 billion ($56.2 million) annually. than $800 a year (2010 dollars),38 while the study This figure is likely conservative as it does not include found that Kakuma camp and town trailed this at in-kind aid, distribution of products, or the provision $602 and $94, respectively (2010 dollars). of free services by humanitarian agencies. The camp spends KES 1.7 billion ($16.5 million), while the town Household consumption in Kakuma camp alone spends nearly KES 4.1 billion ($39.7 million). accounts for 29 percent of the overall area’s consumption, which is almost 2.5 times lower than Consumption in Kakuma is substantial, but the local Kakuma town. More than half of the spending community still lags behind national consumption (61 percent) of refugee consumption is on consumer in Kenya, and refugees are even further behind.37 goods, compared with 39 percent in the town. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 1.15 Total annual household consumption Figure 2 Total annual household consumption, in KES millions - Estimate based on household expenditure survey - 170 5,810 2,663 863 702 496 389 293 174 59 1,619 K-Town 4,113 356 206 560 752 355 75 28 1,044 K-Camp 1,697 140 87 142 36 111 34 Clothing © Sagaci Research Ltd TOTAL Consumer goods Education Housing & lighting Health Communication Entertainment Transportation Equipment & electronics Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 1 Note: Market sizes were calculated based on average monthly spending per household (taking into account penetration levels) for the main national groups in Kakuma: Kenyans, South Sudanese, and others (the remaining nationalities were grouped to avoid bias because of limited sample sizes). Average monthly spending per household was extrapolated from the total number of households for each group (based on latest UNHCR population data and the observed household size in the survey). Residents in both the camp and town spend almost residents spend KES  250  million, compared with half their money on consumer goods like fruit, KES  102  million in the camp. For baking flour, town vegetables, meat, rice, ugali flour, soap, and personal respondents spend only KES 88  million, compared care. While many consumer goods are purchased with KES 167  million spent in the camp. For other in both areas, such as rice/pasta, others are more goods such as alcohol and personal care items, specific to their market. For example, due to cultural spending is also lower than in the town, possibly as a preferences, Kenyans favor ugali flour, while other result of being considered culturally unacceptable or nationalities prefer baking flour. For ugali flour, town less essential due to financial constraints. 30 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Owner of clothing shop in Kakuma camp ©IFC and Luba Shara Residents in both the camp and town spend almost half their money on consumer goods like fruit, vegetables, meat, rice, ugali flour, soap, and personal care. While many consumer goods are purchased in both areas, such as rice/pasta, others are more specific to their market. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 1.16 Figure 1.16 Total annual refugee household consumption in Kakuma camp Total annual household consumption in KES m “On average, how much do you spend in total for the household […], in KES?” - K-camp 1,002 interviews, in % - 34 28 1,699 36 75 2% 2% 87 2% 111 4% 5% 140 7% 142 8% 1,044 8% 100% 61% Consumer Housing Communication Education Transportation Clothing Equipment & Health Entertainment TOTAL goods & lighting electronics KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 31 esearch Ltd DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 1.17 Figure 1.17 Total annual grocery consumption in Kakuma camp and town Total annual grocery consumption in KES millions “How much have you spent on the following categories in the last 4 weeks? (in KES)” - 933 interviews, in KES millions - 14 414 352 305 256 244 244 157 150 123 99 91 72 69 66 9 88 K-town 183 187 92 62 250 199 99 208 138 167 K-camp 231 118 65 37 33 102 45 24 36 12 © Sagaci Research Ltd Rice/pasta Ugali flour Milk powder Baking flour Soap Alcohol Milk Tea Confectionary Home care Drinks Cereals Snacks Fruits & vegetables Food flavours Personal care Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential (incl. shampoo, nail polish, toothpaste, cosmetics, Perfume, etc. Page 19 Residents in the camp and the town buy a similarly flour, milk powder, milk, tea, and drinks are the wide range of food products, but town residents most popular. The same food items are popular in buy more than camp residents. Within the camp, the town, but with a higher penetration rate. meat and packaged products such as rice/pasta, DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 1.18 Penetration rates for various food items 1.18 Penetration of food categories “Which of the following categories have you bought in the last 4 weeks?” - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - A A A 91% 92% A 84% 85% A 76% A K-Camp 61% 63% B 57% K-Town A 47% 44% 39% A 37% 34% 33% 33% 33% 27% 23% 15% 16% 13% 12% 6% 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% Rice/pasta Baking flour Meat Ugali flour Milk powder Tea Fruits & Food Drinks Milk Cereals Snacks Confectionary None vegetables flavours A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B 32 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Research Ltd Dukas (general stores) are prevalent in both camp and town and sell a variety of goods ©IFC and Luba Shara A bakery run by a Congolese refugee which sells bread to the local community and schools ©IFC and Dominic Chavez C H A P T E R 2 A Vibrant Informal Economy D espite the legal and practical Kakuma camp and town are a single limitations (such as the market in more than just name. Over inability to gain formal the past decades, the two have become employment, move, or own socioeconomically interdependent property, which are covered in chapter 4), with refugees hiring, trading, and a thriving informal economy has evolved, working with town residents and with frequent interaction between the vice versa. For example, refugees hire refugee and host communities. There are Turkana locals as porters, shopkeepers, more than 2,000 businesses in Kakuma security guards, or casual labor (to help camp,39 including 14 wholesalers. There with housework); shop in town; and are four major markets in subcamp one, open businesses with residents. At the two in subcamp two, three in subcamp same time, Kakuma town residents three, and one in subcamp four. Kakuma shop in the camp and sell livestock and DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT town has 232 shops along the main road charcoal to refugees, who do not have and adjacent alleys.40 easy access to these resources.41 Figure 2.1 Retail businesses and markets by location in Kakuma camp Retail businesses by location in camp - Source: Vemuru et al. 2016 - 397 287 245 215 195 183 182 143 135 118 K1 Mogadishu K1 Somali Back K1 Ethiopia K1 Honk Kong K2 Phase 1 K2 Phase 2 K3 Darfuri Market K3 Bantu Market K3 New Market K4 New Area © Sagaci Research Ltd K-camp 1: K-camp 2: K-camp 3: K-camp 4: 942 bus. 278 bus. 762 bus. 118 bus. (c.45%) (c.13%) (c.36%) (c.6%) ee Impacts on Turkana Hosts, Kenya, November 2016, p.216-217 ment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 21 KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 35 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 2.2 Figure 2.2 Business activities in camp and town Activities for businesses owned – Town Activities for businesses owned – Camp “What activities best describes the businesses that you own?” “What activities best describes the businesses that you own?” - K-town 122 interviews, in % - - K-camp 136 interviews, in % - B A Duka/Boutique 31% Duka/Boutique 33% Grocery store 9% Food stall / fresh food store 8% Woodfuel/charcoal seller 7% Tailor 8% A Food stall / fresh food store 7% Boda boda driver 7% Restaurant/café 4% Restaurant/café 6% Beads selling (Shangaa) 3% Grocery store 4% Mpesa kiosk 3% Mpesa kiosk 3% © Sagaci Research Ltd Others 43% B Others 38% Note: Sum is above 100% as several businesses can be owned by the same individual Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 22 Twenty percent of all businesses in the camp are include both rental agreements and transfers dukas, which suggests the possibility of introducing of ownership. This practice is not in line with low-end supermarkets. Clothing and shoe stores are UNHCR policy on the provision of free shelter, but the second most common, at 16 percent. While dukas entrepreneurial refugees are left with few choices if are ubiquitous in both the camp and town, they offer they want to run their businesses in areas with heavy limited job opportunities – 70 percent of duka owners foot traffic. do not employ any other people. Other businesses that feature prominently in both areas are grocery stores, Some refugees have even amassed a portfolio of food stalls, restaurants/cafés, and M-Pesa kiosks. assets and make a living by renting, buying, and selling real estate. Given that the system is not These markets are important as they also provide formally regulated, disputes arise when shelters are daily sustenance for most people. Only 4.5 percent rented or “sold” to two parties, or when refugees of refugee households ate food they had produced renting out shelters leave the camp and must themselves.42 As refugees become settled and find surrender them to authorities. ways to earn income, their spending increases. For example, 70  percent of new arrivals spent no cash on food in the week preceding interviews, compared with 37  percent of refugees who had arrived before 2017,43 suggesting the potential for The correlation between owning a business increased consumption, assuming refugees do not move away from the camp. and declared registration by respondents varies by nationality and location. The On arrival, refugees are assigned to an available highest rates of registration in the camp are plot in Kakuma. However, refugee business owners in subcamp four, at 75 percent, which is even are willing to pay other refugees for their plots in higher than the rate of registration in the order to be closer to the main highway and the markets in each subcamp, creating an informal town (51 percent). real estate market.44 The informal agreements 36 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE ©IFC and Luba Shara Despite the lack of available credit, camp residents expend a significant amount on items such as motorcycles When asked about reasons preventing the opening of a business, 16 percent of “would-be entrepreneurs” According to Kenyan legislation, cited the “high cost of rental charges” and 12 percent the “lack of available space to rent.” refugees can register their business as a limited liability company or as a single Business ownership business name with the national registrar Only 12  percent of refugee respondents identify as and receive a single business permit business owners/self-employed, compared with from the county government based on 39 percent in the town, but they tend to own a similar number of businesses (respondents in the camp own national registration. 1.15 businesses, while town locals own 1.08). More telling is the fact that both areas have similar types of businesses, indicating an overlap in the two markets. In both areas, the most common business is the duka, which accounts for 31  percent of businesses legislation, refugees can register their business as in the town and 33  percent the camp. Across both a limited liability company or as a single business areas of Kakuma, 39 percent of duka shop owners are name with the national registrar and receive a single Kenyan and 24 percent are Somali. business permit from the county government based on national registration. However, national business With regards to business registration, 38  percent of registration is a formal process that requires certain respondents in the camp and 51 percent of those in the documentation, such as an Alien ID, registration with town stated that they had registered their business the Revenue Authority, national health insurance, with a Kenyan administration. According to Kenyan and a pension plan, which refugees often lack. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 37 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 2.4 Figure 2.3 Rates of business registration in camp and town 2.4 Business registration penetration by nationality “Is your business registered with the Kenyan administration?” Business registration interviews, % - by nationality penetration - K-camp 136 - K-town 122 interviews, in % - “Is your business registered with the Kenyan administration?” - K-camp 136 interviews, % - - K-town 122 interviews, in % - 60% B 51% 50% 50% 60% B 44% 51% 38% 50% 50% 39% 37% 44% 32% 38% 39% 37% 32% Research Ltd K-Town K-Camp Rwanda Ethiopia Sudan Burundi South Sudan DRC Somalia A B A B C D E F G Ltd © Sagaci Sagaci Research (field K-Camp K-Town Rwanda Ethiopia Sudan Burundi South Sudan DRC Somalia © Sagaci Research Source: study and analysis) A Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee B Camp | January 2017 B A | Sagaci Research | Confidential C D E F G Page 24 38 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 24 While formal education may be lacking, a variety of organizations provide vocational and business training. As a result the labor pool available to potential employers may be more skilled than the education figures suggest ©IFC and Dominic Chavez In additional interviews with refugee business nationality and location. The highest rates of owners, they stated they pay a fee to a representative registration in the camp are in subcamp four, at of the local authorities and receive proof of payment 75  percent, which is even higher than the rate of that is typically valid for one day, one week, or registration in the town (51 percent). As subcamp four is one month. It is possible that refugee business the least well off and hosts the newest arrivals, it might owners interpret this payment as formal business also have the most Bamba Chakula providers, which registration at the county level. However, it seems are required to register. Rwandans have the highest similar to a process used by county governments to rate of business registration across nationalities tax informal businesses. In this process, the county (60 percent) and Somalis the least (32 percent). government levies fees on informal businesses on a daily/weekly/monthly basis and provides a receipt or The gender gap ticket in return. The collected funds enter the county Women in the camp are less likely to be entrepreneurs budget as unstructured revenues.45 than men, and their businesses are more likely to be informal and have less invested in them. In the camp, It is unclear whether the respondents are legally 9  percent of male respondents have a business, registered or mistake the payments they make to while only 3  percent of women respondents do. local representatives for registration as the survey When looking at business ownership combined process did not entail the checking of documents. with self-employment, women still lag behind men at 7  percent (men: 23  percent). Women face many The correlation between owning a business and cultural restrictions on the types of businesses they declared registration by respondents varies by can open and run. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 39 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 2.5 Figure 2.4 Business ownership, registration, and initial investment by gender in camp Business ownership Business registration Initial investment “Which one(s) of these statements best describe “Is your {0} business registered with the Kenyan “How much did you initially invest to start your {0} your professional status?” administration?” business, in KES?” - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - - K-camp 136 interviews, in % - - K-camp 136 interviews, in % - B 9% 49% B 16,652 22% 6,925 3% Male Female Male Female Male Female A B A B A B © Sagaci Research Ltd Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 25 For example, for some nationalities it is culturally This difference does not apply in Kakuma town, discouraged for a woman to open a butchery. Women where 40 percent of the men and 39 percent of the entrepreneurs in the camp are less likely to register women own a business. Of the residents in the their business (22 percent) than men (49 percent). Their camp and town who own a business, 60  percent businesses are also generally smaller, with a lower of men are registered owners, while almost half initial investment (KES 6,925  on average, compared as many women are (32  percent), indicating with KES 16,652 for businesses owned by men). that women operate largely in the informal economy. ©IFC and Luba Shara One of the wholesale businesses in town that serves residents of both the camp and town Starting a business of respondents in the camp. Among those who Nationalities with higher levels of education are would like to start a business, 99 percent of those in more likely to be business owners/self-employed the town and 95 percent of those in the camp lack the than national groups with less education. An capital to do so. exception is Somali refugees, who have high levels of business ownership relative to their low education Refugees wanting to own a business are also levels. This may be the result of their strong financial constrained by the high cost of rental charges and entrepreneurial networks.46 (16  percent of refugee respondents), movement restrictions (13  percent), lack of space available Many Kakuma residents are interested in starting for rent (12  percent), lack of support from camp a business. In the town, 84  percent of respondents administration (11 percent), and the time it takes to would prefer to own a business, as would 90 percent get a movement pass (10 percent). DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 2.5 Share of business owners/self-employed by nationality and education 2.7 Share of business owners/self-employed by nationality “Which one(s) of these statements best describe your professional status?” - K-camp 1,106 interviews - - K-town 311 interviews - Share of refugees having completed high school or attended universities 29% 32% 17% 25% 5% 37% 6% B 39% 36% 28% 25% 19% 17% 12% 9% E,D,C,A 5% K-Town K-Camp Rwanda DRC Burundi Ethiopia Somalia Sudan South Sudan A B A B C D E F G © Sagaci Research Ltd Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 27 But for those who do not want to own a business, business is KES 17,500 in the town and KES 18,000 in the reasons vary between locals and refugees. Most the camp. Within the camp, however, the amounts locals who do not want to start a business are simply vary significantly across nationalities. South not interested (87  percent), but refugees who do Sudanese respondents have started businesses with not want to own a business cite a range of reasons KES 4,000, whereas Rwandans used KES 75,000 on constraining them. Only 36 percent are not interested, average. Although the sample size for Rwandans while 14 percent lack access to capital, 7 percent have is small, the difference in financing suggests that no money of their own to start a business, 7 percent some groups have much better access to capital and do not have a work permit, 7  percent lack the skills, own larger businesses. and another 7 percent lack the training. These issues center on access to finance and education, opening There is also a link between having a job or owning opportunities for provision of services to resolve them. a business and having strong social networks – 31  percent of business owners in the camp have Residents in the town and the camp tap into similar friends or family who have resettled in the United sources to finance their businesses with similar States or Europe, compared with 16 percent for those amounts. The average amount invested to start a who do not own a business.47 KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 41 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 2.8 Figure 2.6 Interest in business ownership Interest in business ownership Reasons for not wanting to own a business “If you could, would you prefer to work on your “Why not?” own?” - 29 interviews, in % - - 231 interviews, in % - 100% 100% Not interested 87% 36% 7% Lack of capital 14% Saving for school fees 7% No money to start a business 7% A 84% No work permit 90% 7% I need time with my family 7% I prefer pursuing my education and working were I am 7% I would rather look for a scholarship for higher education 7% Lack of skill to start the business 7% 16% 10% Lack of training 7% K-Town K-Camp © Sagaci Research Ltd A B Yes No K-Town K-Camp Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 28 In both the camp and town, respondents have respondents in the town and 11 percent in the camp received funding from friends and family to start used loans to start their business, which suggests a business, with 16 percent of refugee respondents an opportunity for formal lenders to capture more receiving funds from abroad. Only 9  percent of of the market. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 2.7 Figure 2.7 Interest in business types and constraints to ownership Interest in starting different types of businesses Constraints to business ownership “What activity best describes the job that you would like to do on “What are the main issues preventing you from working on your your own?” own?” - K-Camp 129 interviews, in % - - K-Camp 129 interviews, in % - - - K-Town 77 interviews, in % - - K-Town 77 interviews, in % - A 37% B Lack of 95% Duka B 18% adequate capital 99% A A Food stall/ 11% High cost of 16% B fresh food store 4% rental charges 12% Too restricted A Grocery 6% movements 13% B B store 5% for refugees 1% A B Restaurant/ 6% Lack of available 12% café 1% space to rent 6% Lack of support A Printing 4% from camp 11% B 0% services 3% administration Too long A Salon/ 4% process to 10% B barber shop 4% get travel pass 0% A 4% 7% © Sagaci Research Ltd Lack of Tailor B 1% technical skills 0% K-Camp K-Town Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 27 42 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 2.10 Figure 2.8 Initial median investment for new businesses by nationality 2.10 Initial median investment Initial median by nationality investment by nationality “How much did you initially invest to start your own business, in KES?” “How much did you initially invest to start your own business, in KES?” - K-camp 136 interviews, in average KES - - K-camp 136 interviews, in average KES - - K-town 122 interview, in average KES - Sample by nationality: - K-town 122 interview, in average KES - Sample by nationality: 5 4 10 9 19 136 122 60 28 5 4 10 9 19 136 122 60 28 75,000 75,000 65,000 65,000 37,500 35,000 37,500 35,000 20,000 18,000 17,500 20,000 18,000 17,500 11,000 11,000 4,000 4,000 Ltd Rwanda Sudan Ethiopia Burundi DRC K-Camp K-Town Somalia South Sudan Ltd Research Rwanda Sudan Ethiopia Burundi DRC K-Camp K-Town Somalia South Sudan Research Sagaci Sagaci Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Source: Sagaci Economic Research assessment (field study of Kakuma and analysis) Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 30 ©© Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 30 There is also a link between having a job or owning a business and having strong social networks – 31 percent of business owners in the camp have friends or family who have resettled in the United States or Europe, compared with 16 percent for those who do not own a business. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 2.9 Source of funds for new business investment by nationality 2.11 Source of funds by nationality “Where did you source this amount to you invested in your business?” - K-camp 141 interviews, in % - Sample size by - K-town 138 interviews, in % - nationality: 138 141 28 61 22 12 9 4 5 34% 47% 43% From savings 53% 56% 59% 67% 75% 80% 26% From family/ 26% 32% friends locally 13% 18% 38% 33% From loans 0% 0% 11% 11% 25% From family/ 26% 18% 25% 16% 0% 20% friends abroad 9% 14% 8% 11% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% K-Town K-Camp South Sudan Somalia DRC Ethiopia Burundi Sudan Rwanda © Sagaci Research Ltd KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 43 Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 31 A market in camp typically supports a variety of shops and has considerable foot and vehicle traffic ©IFC and Luba Shara C H A P T E R 3 Opportunities for Doing Business in a $56 Million Market K akuma camp and town Residents in the camp and town spend present a market with the most of their money on consumer potential for growth. The study goods (46 percent), and the camp makes indicates there is demand for up 29  percent of total consumption access to finance and a willingness to (KES 1.7  billion, or $16.5 million). The pay for improved energy, housing, and consumer goods market is valued at sanitation services. There are many KES 2.7 billion ($26.2 million), with rice/ income and business prospects for both pasta, ugali flour, and milk powder local residents and refugees, as well as making up the three largest components social enterprises and commercial firms. (each worth more than KES 300 million, or $2.9 million). The political environment is favorable in that the Turkana County Government The study’s consumption estimates, sees the refugee presence as an asset, which are conservative, would increase supports the economic integration of if in-kind aid or services were shifted refugees, and welcomes private sector to unconditional cash transfers, which investments in the Kakuma area. This would increase the demand side for all has also been reflected in the new goods and services. UNHCR plans to County Integrated Development Plan for shift to unconditional cash transfers 2018–2023. in 2018. Figure 3.1 Supermarket potential K-town K-camp Consumer goods spending Consumer goods spending KES 1,6bn (USD 15,51m) KES 1,0bn (USD 9,7m) Market share captured by modern supermarket 30% Trading density (sales per m2) KES 350,000 (USD 3,393) Supermarket potential (in m2) Supermarket potential (in m2) 1,388m2 (1 store) 895m2 (1 store) KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 45 In the pilot phase, the converted cash assistance camp. However, all seven brands have sizable will not exceed $40,000 per month. This will inject penetration rates. When looking at the town alone, roughly $0.5 million into the local economy annually. 5 Star has high levels of appreciation (70 percent) While the multiplier effect has not been calculated, and awareness (81  percent). As a result, it has a cash aid to refugees should have a significant positive 70 percent penetration rate, which is far ahead of all impact on local businesses and households.48 other brands. The estimated level of existing consumption could Baking flour is another common staple in both the potentially support one or two supermarkets serving camp and town, with respective penetration rates the camp and town. of 47  percent and 63  percent. Five major brands of baking flour are available in this market, with Retail trade Dola having the highest awareness (59 percent), Staples penetration (50  percent), and appreciation Rice and pasta are staples in both the camp and (44 percent) in the camp. Ndovu leads the market town with respective penetration rates of 61 in the town with a penetration rate of 81 percent. percent and 84 percent. While there are seven Dola also has high penetration in the town, at major brands available, Baraka is the most well- 70 percent, but low appreciation of 13 percent. known, purchased, and appreciated brand in the While there are seven major brands available, Baraka is the most well-known, purchased, and appreciated brand in the camp. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 3.2 Rice and pasta brand awareness, penetration, and appreciation Rice/pasta brand Rice/pasta brand Rice/pasta brand awareness penetration appreciation “Which brands of {0} do you “Which of the following brands “Which of the following brand of know? of {0} have you bought in the last {0} is your favourite?” - … interviews, in % - 4 weeks?” - … interviews, in % - - … interviews, in % - A 30% B 30% 25% B Baraka Baraka Baraka B 43% 25% 10% A Roza 25% 25% A 20% B Omar Omar B spaghetti 26% 1% 0% A 22% Roza 22% 11% Omar Hamdi B 8% A spaghetti 14% A 0% A B Fiora 21% Fiora 15% 8% Salma spaghetti 27% spaghetti 12% 0% B A 19% 14% 7% Hamdi Hamdi 5 star B 10% A 4% A 48% A A 18% 12% Roza 6% Salma Salma B 17% 5% A spaghetti 5% A 18% B © Sagaci Research Ltd 10% B Fiora 6% 5 star 5 star B 81% 70% spaghetti 4% K-Camp K-Town ee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 33 46 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.3 Figure 3.3 Baking flour brand awareness, penetration, and appreciation Baking flour brand Baking flour brand Baking flour brand awareness penetration appreciation “Which brands of {0} do you “Which of the following brands “Which of the following brand of know? of {0} have you bought in the last {0} is your favourite?” - … interviews, in % - 4 weeks?” - … interviews, in % - - … interviews, in % - A 59% 50% 44% Dola Dola Dola B 70% A 70% 13% A 45% 26% 25% Ndovu Ndovu Ndovu A B 81% 81% 69% A 37% 21% 16% Chef Chef Chef B 29% 29% 8% A 32% A 13% 13% Maisha Maisha Maisha B 10% 10% 6% A 19% 4% 2% Kifaru © Sagaci Research Ltd Kifaru Kifaru B 21% 21% 3% rce: Sagaci Research analysis K-Camp K-Town omic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 34 Fresh fruit and vegetables While subcamp three has a low penetration rate The number of people buying fruit and vegetables, of 26  percent, it also has the largest proportion of and the amount they spend, varies across the buyers spending between KES  500 and KES  1,000 camp and the town. Fewer than 40  percent of (25  percent) and KES 1,000 or more (19  percent). households bought fruits and vegetables over the This is even higher than the distribution of spending four weeks preceding interviews, except in subcamp in the town. These variations could be the result of two (74  percent) and Kakuma town (58 percent). consumer preferences or differences in spending DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 3.4 Penetration and expenditure on fruit and vegetables, by camp zone and town 3.4 Amount spent by households on fruit & vegetables over Penetration rate of fruits and vegetables by subcamp the past 4 weeks by subcamp “Did you buy fruits and vegetables over the past 4 weeks?” “How much have you spent on fruits and vegetables over the past 4 - 1,309 interviews - weeks?” ACDE - 538 interviews - 74% 6% 2% 15% 11% ACD 1,000 KES & more 17% 19% 58% 15% 19% KES 500 - KES 1,000 16% C,D 25% 38% 65% 23% KES 100 - KES 500 40% 41% 26% 21% 44% 46% KES 0 - KES 100 27% 28% 28% A B C D E 12% K-camp 1 K-camp 2 K-camp 3 K-camp 4 K-town K-camp 1 K-camp 2 K-camp 3 K-camp 4 K-town KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 47 aci Research Ltd power between nationalities – for example subcamp January, with prices being higher from September four hosts the newest and poorest refugees and has through December and lower from January to the lowest consumption. February.49 Fruit and vegetables that are sold in Kakuma are A Samuel Hall study, Comprehensive Market procured in Kitale, more than 400 kilometers away, Assessment for Kakuma Refugee Camp (2016), looked and mostly produced in the western regions of Kenya. at three value chains (tomatoes, aloe vera, and Local production could lead to lower transportation hides and skins), and found tomatoes to have the costs and a steadier supply of produce as poor road greatest potential for local production as they are conditions during rainy seasons can make delivery in high demand and able to grow in arid areas. unreliable. As a consequence, there is a lack of supply Tomato production could be a promising business of fresh fruit and vegetables from September to opportunity for the camp.50 Value chain Value chain Job-creation Roadmaps for NGOs Limitations assessment potential potential • Large demand • Strong potential • Strong potential for • Advocacy • Seasonality limits • Massive imports in the production unskilled workers • Water schemes potential for from Kitale segment of the (including women • Environmental unskilled jobs • A few very small value chain and young workers) management (eco- • Important to Tomato producers • Opportunity for • Potential for semi- fertilizers) diversify incomes • Absence of wholesalers factories through skilled and skilled • Access to finance (threats of drought • High number of public-private in the longer run if • Capacity development and pest) retailers partnerships transformation • Potential verticle • Unsure long-term • No transformation integration in longer run development High potential given high demand Meat Meat and livestock are produced locally and prices Market penetration for meat in the camp is are relatively low, but their availability is at times highest in subcamp two (68  percent) and lowest limited.51 Livestock is supplied mainly from Kalobeyei, in subcamp four (23 percent). The pattern of meat Kibich, Lokipoto, and Ethiopia, which are relatively penetration and consumption is similar to that close when compared with the distance over which of fruit and vegetables, indicating that subcamps fruit and vegetables are transported. In DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT March and one and two are better off than subcamps three April, supply declines and prices rise.52 and four. 3.5 Figure 3.5 Monthly availability and prices of livestock and meat in Kakuma camp Availability of livestock and meat is relatively low but prices are low as well Monthly availability and prices of livestock and meat in K-camp ranked from small to high High Supply gap and rise in prices Medium Availability Price Small Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: World Food Programme 2014. © Sagaci Research Ltd 48 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Source: Dadaab and Kakuma Refugee Camps Market Assessment, p24-32; p.43 Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 36 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 3.6 Penetration of and expenditure on meat 3.6 Amount spent by households on meat over the past 4 Penetration rate of meat by subcamp weeks by subcamp “Did you buy meat over the past 4 weeks?” “How much have you spent on meat over the past 4 weeks?” - 1,309 interviews - - 710 interviews - ABCD 92% 1,000 KES & more 14% 19% 21% ACD 28% 29% 68% KES 500 - KES 1,000 19% 19% D 30% 39% 45% D 36% 38% KES 100 - KES 500 57% 56% 23% 16% 35% 34% A B C D E KES 0 - KES 100 19% 11% 7% 6% 6% K-camp 1 K-camp 2 K-camp 3 K-camp 4 K-town K-camp 1 K-camp 2 K-camp 3 K-camp 4 K-town DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.7 © Sagaci Research Ltd Figure 3.7 Monthly availability and prices of cereal and pulses in Kakuma camp Source: Sagaci Research analysis Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 37 Prices and availability inversely correlated with peak of availability from May to August Monthly availability and prices of cereal and pulse in K-camp ranked from small to high High Supply gap and Supply gap and rise in prices rise in prices Medium Price Availability Small Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: World Food Programme 2014. © Sagaci Research Ltd Source: Dadaab and Kakuma Refugee Camps Market Assessment, p24-32; p.43 Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 38 The demand for meat is high in town – 92  percent Consumption of cereals varies slightly between of those surveyed had purchased meat in the four subcamps and the town. Penetration is low across weeks preceding interviews, with 29  percent of all areas, from 12  percent in subcamp four to 13 town respondents spending more than KES 1,000 percent in the town, to 23 percent in subcamp two. on meat over the same time. Most consumers spend between KES 100 and KES 500 on cereals, except for subcamp four, where Cereals 41  percent of respondents spend more than KES Cereals, produced throughout Kenya, are always 500. This is likely because cereals are the cheapest available, though there is a drop in supply and an source of calories and thus make up the bulk of the increase in price in November and December.53 diet in the poorest subcamp. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 49 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.8 Figure 3.8 Penetration of and expenditure on cereals Amount spent by households on cereals over the past 4 Penetration rate of cereals by subcamp weeks by subcamp “Did you buy cereals over the past 4 weeks?” “How much have you spent on cereals over the past 4 weeks?” - 1,309 interviews - - 212 interviews - 23% 3% 3% 14% 12% 19% 18% 1,000 KES & more 28% 14% 15% 13% KES 500 - KES 1,000 8% 41% 12% 38% 91% KES 100 - KES 500 46% 70% 28% 47% KES 0 - KES 100 18% 18% 3% 2% 0% K-camp 1 K-camp 2 K-camp 3 K-camp 4 K-town A B C D E K-camp 1 K-camp 2 K-camp 3 K-camp 4 K-town © Sagaci Research Ltd Home equipment is a market for a commercial solution that provides The most popular household purchase in Kakuma energy and lighting at a lower cost. camp Source: town is the TV, followed by motorbikes and analysis Sagaci Research and solar panels. The market for household Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Both the camp and town rely mostly on electric lights,Page 39 equipment is worth an estimated KES 174  million generators, torches, and solar lamps for lighting. ($1.7 million). Power generation is a significant The exception is subcamp four, where 23  percent of contributor – spending on solar panels and power respondents use candles, and town, where 12 percent generators combined makes it the second largest use kerosene lanterns. This reflects the distribution of household equipment item. In addition, according wealth across Kakuma – subcamp four is the poorest, to a World Food Programme study, the most so connections to generators are low, while those living common consumable nonfood items people spend in the town and the other subcamps tend to be better their money on are cooking fuel and charcoal, off and typically use some form of electric lighting. electricity, loan repayments, airtime, and mobile phone charging, most of which are related to Copia, a mail order catalog company that is based energy.54 Although fragmented, spending on energy- in Kenya, could use its model to improve the variety related products (generation, charging, fuel) would and cost of goods available in remote areas such as be substantial if combined. This suggests that there Kakuma camp and town (see box 3.1). DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 3.9 Consumption of equipment 3.9 Total annual equipment consumption in KES millions “How much did you pay for the following products? (in KES)” 43 25 22 17 15 10 9 8 7 6 12 1 0 0 1 1 1 K-Camp 13 6 3 7 25 16 8 7 14 9 5 K-Town 30 16 9 1 0 TV Motorbike Solar panel Bed Computer Bicycle Chair Fridge Sofa Power generator Other equipment 50 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE arch Ltd Small shops in town and camp could play a role as sales agents and distributors for companies like Copia ©IFC and Luba Shara Box 3.1 Copia – A distributor partnering with small retailers for rural customers Copia, established in 2012, is a Nairobi-based consumer catalog order and delivery company for nonperishable and durable goods. Targeting Kenya’s peri-urban and rural areas, Copia recruits local businesses such as hair salons, M-Pesa agents, tailors, and general shops to act as Copia agents. This benefits both parties, because Copia gains access to more customers and the agents increase their monthly incomes by an average of 35 percent. 1. Copia recruits local business owners as Copia “If there are more than agents. 250,000 low-income 2. Agents have an established network of customers consumers in a very remote in the local community who visit the shop and area of Kenya, Copia’s view products in the Copia catalog. e-commerce platform and 3. Once customers have selected their products, the tested logistics may be the agent texts the customer’s order to Copia and pays best available option to through M-Pesa. serve the retail needs of this 4. Copia sends a confirmation SMS to the agent and community. We already have customer and then sources goods from reliable the right product offering long-term suppliers. and logistic system to serve 5. Customer goods are delivered to the agent’s shop them quickly and efficiently.” within one to four business days, depending on the Samantha Roblin – type of product. Growth Manager Copia is not yet operating in Kakuma town or camp, but the remote location, small retail shops, lack of variety of products sold, and limited number of wholesalers present a market opportunity for the company. Expanding into Kakuma could boost the income of small business owners and create jobs. Copia’s arrival would also give residents access to a greater variety and supply of products. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 51 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.10 Figure 3.10 Lighting sources in camp and town Lighting sources “What is the main source of energy for lighting?” - K-town 311 interviews - - K-camp 1,106 interviews - 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% Other Solar lamp 3% 2% 2% 1% 5% 2% 3% 1% A,C,E 0% 12% Homemade kerosene lamp Torch 0% 5% 3% 23% 11% 2% Gas lamp Generator 15% 11% Lantern Electric lamp 18% Candle 22% 13% 23% 0% 30% A,C 28% 28% A,B,D,E 32% 61% 43% 0% 38% 31% 23% © Sagaci Research Ltd K-camp 1 K-camp 2 K-camp 3 K-camp 4 K-town A B C D E Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 41 Telecommunications and mobile from the town and 41  percent from the camp. The money handset market figures were calculated based on Most respondents have mobile phones with pre-pay the conservative assumption that people will keep plans, which enables access to information, social their handsets for three years and spend KES 3,941 networks, and digital finance. About 69  percent on average in the camp and KES 5,522 in the town. of camp residents have a mobile phone, as do Although a large segment of phone users did not 85  percent of those in the town. The high mobile know the price paid or were not the owner of the phone penetration in Kakuma town in comparison phone, the most common purchase price of a phone to their relatively low purchasing power suggests a in both the town and camp was between KES 1,000 high level of interest in phone ownership in the area. and KES 3,000. However, of those who have mobile phones, only 86 percent in the town and 31 percent in the camp The rate of ownership varies greatly by nationality use their phone/SIM card for mobile banking or among refugees. More people from Eritrea money transfers. This translates to strong potential (100  percent), Uganda (92 percent), and Ethiopia for mobile-banking interventions in the area. (90  percent) own phones than their Kenyan counterparts in the town (85  percent). Somalis The mobile handset market in Kakuma camp and (81  percent), Sudanese (67  percent), Rwandans town is estimated at KES 49  million ($480,000) (64 percent), and South Sudanese (57 percent) all have annually, and about 59  percent of the market is much lower rates of ownership. The high mobile phone penetration in Kakuma town in comparison to their relatively low purchasing power suggests a high level of interest in phone ownership in the area. However, of those who have mobile phones, only 86 percent in the town and 31 percent in the camp use their phone/SIM card for mobile banking or money transfers. This translates to strong potential for mobile-banking interventions in the area. 52 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE South Sudanese are the only large national group own phones, only 19 percent and 33 percent of them, with less than 60 percent mobile phone ownership. respectively, connect to the internet. Safaricom These figures are not closely aligned with income by captures the entire market across the camp and nationality or professional status, which indicates town, which gives it the opportunity to promote its that owning a mobile phone is not directly linked M-Pesa services with existing users. to economic status. Nationalities with low rates of mobile phone ownership are likely to struggle to The use of mobile money is higher in the town than access finance, information, and social networks. in the camp. There is a substantial gap in the use of mobile money and bank accounts between residents Even though many residents have mobile phones, in the town and the camp. About 86  percent of they have limited access to the internet and service is respondents in the town use their phone/SIM for offered by only one provider. Although 69 percent of mobile banking or money transfers, while only respondents in the camp and 85 percent in the town 31 percent do so in the camp. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 3 Figure 3.11 Mobile phone prices and market Purchase price of mobile phones Total market for mobile phones “How much did you pay for your mobile phone? (in KES)” - In KES millions - - 1,031 interviews, in % - Assuming a 3-year lifespan Average price paid: 49 KES 5,522 KES 3,941 16% 20 5% 0% 36% Unknown price & non-owner 9% More than KES 25,000 8% 1% 0% KES 15,000 to KES 25,000 5% 5% 5% KES 10,000 to KES 15,000 11% 5% KES 7,000 to KES 10,000 8% KES 5,000 to KES 7,000 KES 3,000 to KES 5,000 29 42% 30% KES 1,000 to KES 3,000 KES 500 to KES 1,000 Less than KES 500 10% © Sagaci Research Ltd 0% 2% 1% K-town K-camp K-camp K-town Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 2 This correlates with low financial awareness 36 percent in the town have smartphones. However, (only 29 percent of refugee respondents know 96 percent of university graduates in the town and and understand the term mobile money). Banks 67 percent of university graduates in the camp own and mobile network providers offer mobile- a smartphone. Furthermore, refugees arriving money services in both areas, but there is a between 2000 and 2010 are more likely to own significant opportunity to improve penetration smartphones than those who arrived after 2010 in the camp. Growth in this segment would depend (33 percent and 22 percent respectively). In the camp, on improving refugees’ financial literacy and their 63 percent of men do not have smartphones, while access to Alien ID cards, which are necessary to 88 percent of women do not, likely limiting their access register with M-Pesa. Refugees are already familiar to the internet and consequently to information. with mobile payment systems as the World Food The low level of smartphone penetration could also Programme launched a SIM card-based food prevent a large segment of the population from voucher system in 2015. accessing more sophisticated app-based services. Smartphone ownership follows its own patterns An important caveat: all respondents were heads of related to education, arrival date, and gender. household and as a result more likely to own a phone Only 28  percent of phone owners in the camp and than the average inhabitant. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 53 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.13 Figure 3.12 Mobile phone network providers, internet penetration, and mobile-money penetration Mobile phone network provider penetration Internet penetration Mobile money penetration “What is your mobile phone provider?” “Do you connect to the Internet?” “Do you use your phone/SIM for mobile banking or - K-town 274 interviews, %- - K-town 311 interviews, in % - mobile transfer?” - K-camp 800 interviews, %- - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - Safaricom 19% A Yes Yes Tigo 33% No 31% No A Airtel Orange B 86% 100% 100% 81% 67% 69% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% K-Camp K-Town K-Camp K-Town K-Camp K-Town B A B A A B DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 3.13 Mobile phone penetration by gender © Sagaci Research Ltd Banks and mobile Mobile phone penetration by gender network providers offer “What Economic assessment of Kakuma kind Refugee of mobile Camp | Januaryphone do you 2017 | Sagaci have?” Research | Confidential mobile-money services in Page 44 - K-town 311 interviews - - K-camp 1,106 interviews - both areas, but there is a significant opportunity 18% A 13% 16% to improve penetration in 7% 11% 37% 6% the camp. Growth in this 21% B 43% B segment would depend 15% Featured phone 37% Smart phone on improving refugees’ 12% 57% A Other (to specify) financial literacy and 34% 37% 37% No phone their access to Alien ID cards, which are Camp Camp - Town Town - necessary to register - Male Female - Male Female with M-Pesa. A B A B DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.11 Figure 3.14 Mobile phone penetration © Sagaci Research Ltd Mobile phone penetration Mobile phone type penetration ntial “Do you own a mobile phone?” Page 45 “What kind of mobile phone do you have?” - K-town 311 interviews - - K-town 265 interviews - - K-camp 1,106 interviews - - K-camp 766 interviews - Yes No 52% 57% Featured phone 69% A 85% Smart phone Basic phone 28% A B 36% 31% 15% 20% 7% K-Camp K-Town K-Camp K-Town A B A B 54 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Banking understanding of the purpose and benefits. In terms Access to basic financial services is critical for of gender, 24  percent of men in the camp have an personal financial security and entrepreneurship account, compared with 4 percent of women. This is within the host and refugee communities. The study likely a result of existing disparities in education and found that there is a sizable opportunity for growth employment between genders. for commercial firms in this regard. According to Equity Bank, the only bank with Only 54  percent of respondents in the town and a branch in Kakuma, a refugee can open a bank 10 percent in the camp have a bank account. About account if they have an Alien ID card or their proof 68 percent of refugees with a university degree have of registration document from UNHCR and RAS a bank account, as they are likely to have a better (Refugee Affairs Secretariat). DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.15 Figure 3.15 Bank account holders in camp, by gender and education Bank account holders in the camp by gender Bank account holders in the camp by education level “Do you have a bank account?” “Do you have a bank account?” - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - B,C,D,E 353 753 68% 4% Men are more likely to 68% of university 24% have bank accounts graduates have bank B than women in the accounts in the camp camp C,D,E Yes No 31% 96% E 76% 20% 6% 2% © Sagaci Research Ltd Male Female University High school Vocational Primary No schooling A B degree training completed Source: Source: Sagaci Sagaci Research Research analysis analysis A B C D E Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 46 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.16Figure 3.16 Bank account penetration Bank account penetration Demand for financial “Do you have a bank account?” services in the camp and - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - town is high and is likely to grow. Of those in the 10% camp and town who would A 54% Yes like to start a business, 99 No percent and 95 percent, 90% respectively, lack the 46% access to capital to do so. K-Camp K-Town A B KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 55 d ©IFC and Luba Shara Many residents and small businesses, such as butcher shops, could benefit from improved access to banking services Box 3.2 Equity Bank – Bank accounts and access to credit for Kakuma camp and town Equity Group Holdings Limited, founded in 1984, is the largest commercial bank in Africa in terms of number of total customers. In Kakuma camp and town, Equity Bank has managed to successfully develop a common offer for both the refugee and host community markets that includes bank accounts and access to credit. The business model has been profitable and, as a result, Equity Bank is “They [the refugees] interested in expanding its activities in Kakuma camp and expects to further grow its business with the development of the Kalobeyei refugee settlement. are able to get loans. We have a mobile loan product which • Bank accounts are offered to those in the host community and in the refugee camp. is the most used. This • Refugees can open a bank account if they have an product enables you Alien ID card or their proof of registration document to get loans if you are Bank from UNHCR and RAS. transacting through • Refugees have access to the same accounts that locals accounts your account. So, once do, and are given a Visa debit card to access their funds. you have an account, you are given a SIM • Refugees and the host community are offered credit card which is linked to through Equitel, a mobile SIM-based platform. • Regular loans offered by Equity Bank do not target your account, Equitel. the refugee population. With that, if your Access to • Equity Bank also offers credit to refugees in partnership transactions are good credit with NGOs, which select beneficiaries, disburse funds, then you can get a and manage the loan on behalf of Equity Bank. loan over the phone.” 56 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Once they obtain accounts, refugees with salaried Financial service providers have opportunities to positions can have their pay directly deposited into fill this demand by providing capital to start and their accounts. Account holders also receive bank expand businesses as well as accounts for personal cards and have the same access to the bank’s ATMs savings. To resolve the lack of collateral, banks have as any other customer. The beneficiaries of the begun developing alternative credit ratings based on bank accounts are primarily refugees who work other data, such as M-Pesa transactions or savings for humanitarian agencies in and around the camp account history. With the rise of digital finance, as “interns,” “incentive workers,” and “community banks are able to reach customers in extremely organizers.” Equity Bank dominates the market in remote locations without costly investments in the camp, with 97  percent of the market share, but brick and mortar shops. other banks do have some brand awareness. The latest number the team obtained from Equity Bank Equity Bank already has considerable operations in before this report was published was 60,000 savings Kakuma camp and town (see box 3.2). accounts in the Kakuma area (camp and town). About 11  percent of refugee respondents are familiar with Access to credit Kenya Commercial Bank and 6  percent are aware of The low access to credit and use of informal Barclays Bank of Kenya. lending mechanisms presents opportunities for formal financial institutions to expand to Kakuma. Demand for financial services in the camp and town Respondents in the town (29  percent) are more is high and is likely to grow. Of those in the camp and likely than those in the camp (24 percent) to receive town who would like to start a business, 99 percent a loan. Kenyans are more likely to use the loan for and 95 percent, respectively, lack the access to capital education or a business investment, while those in to do so. In addition, UNHCR is moving towards the camp mostly borrow money from local shops unconditional cash transfers, which will result to buy food on credit. Entrepreneurs in both areas in additional liquidity entering the area regularly consider access to capital to be the main constraint and predictably. Because formal credit markets to business growth. Equity Bank does lend directly to and savings accounts are not available, informal refugees but through risk-partnerships with NGOs, mechanisms have arisen to fill the gap. Credit in the which select beneficiaries and provide the funds, camp is overwhelmingly provided through friends while Equity Bank holds the account and disburses and family, and many people save money at home, the loans. The Bank also supports traders and uses with friends, or in savings groups. inventory as collateral. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.17 Figure 3.17 Access to loans by nationality Loan access by national group “Have you obtained a loan/borrowed money from this source over the past 12 months?” - K-town 311 interviews - - K-camp 1,106 interviews - 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100% No 71% 70% 69% 77% 81% 79% 79% 75% 86% B B Yes 29% 30% 31% 24% 21% 21% 25% 14% 19% © Sagaci Research Ltd Town Camp Rwanda South Sudan DRC Sudan Ethiopia Somalia Burundi A B A B C D E F G Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE Page 48 57 This financial institution cites the lack of asset security Within the refugee community, the level of by customers as the key obstacle to expanding lending. indebtedness varies by nationality. Somalis and Burundians are most likely to have borrowed money Roughly a quarter of respondents in Kakuma camp in the previous year. Somalis reportedly use loans to and town said they borrowed money over the last 12 pay for education or invest in their business, which months. About 62 percent of loans in the camp are for can be considered positive debt, while those from food purchases, and only 16 percent are for setting up the Democratic Republic of the Congo use loans as a a business. In contrast, those in the town primarily coping mechanism.55 to set take out a loanDRAFT up a business – WORKING (57  percent) or DOCUMENT provide for a child’s education (19 percent). Figure 3.18 Purpose of loans Loan purpose “For what purpose did you borrow this amount of cash?” - K-town 90 interviews, in % - - K-camp 260 interviews, in % 62% Food purchase 17% 16% To set-up a business 57% 3% Children education 19% 10% Medical expenses 4% 12% Non-food items purchase 2% 2% Assistance to relatives 2% 2% Travel 2% 1% Equipment purchase © Sagaci Research Ltd 1% K-Camp K-Town nalysis) amp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 49 There is demand for credit in Kakuma, but the inadequate, and individual loans would be more market is largely informal. Most refugees needing appropriate for their needs.56 credit borrow money from friends and family (10 percent), or shops (buying on credit, at 14 percent). The size of loans from family or friends varies greatly. Around a quarter of these types of loans for both For Kenyans, the most common source is financial refugees and Kenyans are between KES 1,000 and institutions (14  percent) and friends/family KES 2,000 and about another quarter are between (13 percent). Unlike those in the town, none of the KES 3,000 and KES 8,000. In the camp, 61  percent refugees interviewed received loans from financial of loans from friends and family and 61 percent from institutions, other than those managed in risk- shops are KES 1,000 or more. These amounts are partnership with NGOs. But according to refugees, substantial, indicating the possibility for more formal the system of group loans offered by NGOs is credit mechanisms in Kakuma camp. 58 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.19Figure 3.19 Financial institution loan penetration There is demand for credit Financial institution loan penetration in Kakuma, but the market is “Have you obtained a loan/borrowed money from this source over the past 12 months? (Financial institution: bank, MFI, etc.)” largely informal. Most refugees - K-town 311 interviews - needing credit borrow money - K-camp 1,106 interviews - from friends and family (10 A 0% 14% percent), or shops (buying on credit, at 14 percent). For Kenyans, the most common 100% Yes No 86% source is financial institutions (14 percent) and friends/family (13 percent). K-Camp K-Town A B DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.20 Figure 3.20 Family and friends loan penetration and amounts Family and friends loan penetration Loan amount (family & friends) © Sagaci Research Ltd “Have you obtained a loan/borrowed money from “What was the amount of cash borrowed, in KES? (Family and friends)?” this source over the past 12 months? (Family and - K-town 39 interviews - Source: Sagaci Research analysis friends)” - K-camp 113 interviews - Economic assessment of Kakuma - K-town Refugee January 2017-| Sagaci Research | Confidential 311| interviews Camp Page 50 - K-camp 1,106 interviews - 26% 10% 13% 23% K-Camp K-Town 15% 15% 13% 90% 87% 11% 10% 10% 7% 8% 6% 5% 5% 0% K-Camp K-Town KES 1,000 to KES 2,000 to KES 500 to Less than KES 3,000 to KES 4,000 to KES 5,000 to A B KES 2,000 KES 3,000 KES 1,000 KES 500 KES 4,000 KES 5,000 KES 8,000 Yes No A B A B A B A B A B A B A B DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.21 Figure 3.21 Shop loan penetration and amounts © Sagaci Research Ltd Shop loan penetration Loan penetration (shop) “Have “What was the amount of cash borrowed, in KES? (Shop)” Source: Sagaciyou obtained Research a loan/borrowed money from analysis Economicthis source assessment over of the Kakuma past 12 Refugee months? Camp (Shop)” | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential - K-town 7 interviews - Page 51 - K-town 311 interviews - - K-camp 151 interviews - - K-camp 1,106 interviews - B 43% 2% 14% K-Camp 28% 29% K-Town 98% 19% 86% 14% 15% 13% 11% 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% A B K-Camp K-Town KES 1,000 to KES 500 to Less than KES 8,000 to KES 2,000 to KES 3,000 to KES 4,000 to KES 2,000 KES 1,000 KES 500 KES 12,000 KES 3,000 KES 4,000 KES 5,000 Yes No KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 59 Ltd Education More than 7,000 primary-school-age children are The camp is home to many more students than not enrolled and more than 19,000 secondary- can be hosted by the existing schools. The private school-age children are not enrolled. The lack of sector can play a role in relieving the pressure on the space for these students prevents motivated and humanitarian education system as well as provide qualified students from continuing their education. services to those with special needs. Partly as a result of the lack of schools, a high The schools run by UNHCR and its implementing number of children are out of school (preprimary partners in Kakuma camp follow the Kenyan 55 percent, primary 17 percent, and secondary 96 curriculum, which is set out as eight years of primary percent). Other challenges include overstretched education, four years of secondary education, and and insufficient teaching and learning facilities, a four years of tertiary education. Children need to high population of over-age learners (66 percent), obtain the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education an insufficient number of teachers, including a low at the end of the primary cycle and the Kenya number of female teachers (only 19.5 percent), low Certificate of Secondary Education at the end of the teacher salaries that affect educational quality, secondary cycle. and low parental and community participation. UNHCR reserves 10 percent of school spaces for To address growing needs for education, children from the host community and supports communities started their own private primary community-identified projects in the town, and secondary schools. The student–teacher ratios including education infrastructure. It encourages are much better, with one such school having partners working in the camp to fundraise and a ratio of about 1:20. A lower ratio significantly intervene in surrounding host communities. improves the learning environment. The monthly There are also refugee children who attend the fee per student is KES 1,200 for the primary school surrounding host community schools. and KES 2,000 for the secondary school. The secondary school situation is challenging, with use At the time of the study, the camp had 22 primary of double shifts in schools. schools, five secondary schools, and two post- secondary institutions. In 2016, 90 percent of the The demand for education opens up avenues for 3,894 children completing their Kenya Certificate of affordable, private education providers in Kakuma. Primary Education passed, but without schools of According to the report “The Business of Education the next level to host them, many of these students in Africa,” about 21 percent of African children and will not be able to go to secondary school.57 young people are already being educated by the private sector, with the percentage likely to rise to one in four in 2021. In Kenya alone, private sector schools enroll 1 million students at the preprimary level, 2.8 million at the K–12 level, and 0.1 million in Figure 3.22 Primary, secondary, and tertiary education. post-secondary schools in Kakuma camp The study indicates that the respondents in Kakuma camp and town already spend KES 863 million ($8.4  million) on education, accounting for 15 percent of the area’s total annual household consumption. Despite UNHCR and partner efforts to provide free education to refugees, respondents 2 Vocational training in Kakuma camp alone claimed to spend KES 111 and e-learning centres million ($1.1 million) on education, or 6.5 percent of the annual household consumption in the camp. 5 Secondary schools Social enterprises can ease pressure on the overstretched humanitarian system and complement people’s willingness to pay for 22 Primary schools education, for example, by engaging Kenyan and regional low-cost private school providers. The future school system in Kakuma might be a hybrid – a mix of public and private. 60 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 3.23 Figure 3.23 Housing type in subcamps and town Housing Although some residents in subcamp one and Housing type in subcamps and town two and the town say they are unwilling to spend “What are the walls of the residence made of?” money on improving their houses, many have - 230 interviews - actually invested in improvements. For example, even though only 29  percent of residents in 3% subcamp one would be willing to pay for improved 5% 17% 20% housing, 79 percent are in improved houses made 26% 33% of mud, cinder blocks, or other materials, with 5% 38% only 21  percent of respondents in tents. Across 12% 33% all subcamps and the town, the most common 22% 17% form of improved housing is mud blocks, ranging 21% 1% from 33  percent in subcamp four to 55  percent 17% in subcamp three. The use of cinder blocks is more variable, with subcamp two having the 50% 55% 51% highest percentage of cinder block homes at 41% 33% 33 percent (even more than in the town, which is at 22 percent). K-camp 1 K-camp 2 K-camp 3 K-camp 4 K-town About 55  percent of respondents in subcamp three and 67  percent in subcamp four are willing to pay for improved housing, and these are the Mud blocks UNHCR Tents only two subcamps still using UNHCR tents. In © Sagaci Research Ltd Other tents Manyatta (Temporary) addition, subcamp three has the most “other Cinder blocks Other tents,” and subcamp two has the largest portion Source: Sagaci Research Analysis of “manyatta” (temporary housing). A market Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential supported by commercial firms and local shops Page 54 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT for home improvement might exist for the other subcamps and Kakuma town, because the Figure 3.24 Willingness to pay for improved housing two main motivations for paying for housing 3.24 improvements are better sanitation and more security, rather than better materials. Willingness to pay for improved housing “Would you be willing to pay for better housing?” Sanitation - 230 interviews - Sanitation is another growing need at the camp. Current sanitation conditions leave much room for improvement. About 42 percent of the camp’s residents use unlayered latrines and 8  percent have nothing. Accordingly, 47  percent of those 33% in the camp would be willing to pay for better 45% sanitation services. In the town, 77  percent have 71% 67% 66% layered latrines and 16  percent have latrines that are layered and ventilated, but 27  percent of respondents would still be willing to pay for improved sanitation. According to UNHCR data, 67% 55% the latrine user ratio in Kakuma camp was 1:6 for both shared and household latrines. Overall, 29% 33% 34% latrine coverage is 78 percent. K-camp 1 K-camp 2* K-camp 3 K-camp 4* K-town The most acute challenge is the lack of space, A B C D E especially in subcamp one, which is the oldest: when a latrine is full, there is a need to dig and build a new No Yes one at a different location. Considering funding © Sagaci Research Ltd constraints, another challenge is the cost. A typical Source: Sagaci Research Analysis latrine consists of a slab and a superstructure, which *Note: small sample costs $140 to $160 and has a lifespan of two years. Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 55 KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 61 The final challenge is environmental. Latrines might social enterprises, while benefiting the refugees and be hard to dig in rocky soil, and high water tables andlocal community. Opportunities could be related seasonal flooding can destroy the latrines or cause to charging a small fee for providing and servicing overflowing. latrines while transforming the solid waste into a clean burning alternative to charcoal or fertilizer. These challenges can be translated into Such a model could provide refugees and the host opportunities for the private sector, particularly community with improved sanitation services and DRAFT – WORKINGjob opportunities. DOCUMENT Market-based sanitation services already exist in 3.25 Figure 3.25 Sanitation types in camp and town the camp through the social enterprise Sanivation (see box 3.3). Sanitation type in subcamps and town “What toilet arrangements does the household use ?” In addition to Sanivation, there are other social - 230 interviews - enterprises that might also be viable in Kakuma 10% A camp and town (see box 3.4). 16% 36% A 8% 77% The most acute challenge is the lack of 42% B space, especially in the subcamp one, which is the oldest: when a latrine is full, there K-camp K-town is a need to dig and build a new one at a A B different location. Considering funding Flush to specific tank Open defecation/none Layered and ventilated latrine Unlayered latrine constraints, another challenge is the cost. Layered latrine Box 3.3 Sanivation – Providing an inexpensive and safe energy source for cooking and heating © Sagaci Research Ltd Sanivation, established in 2011, is a Kenyan social Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 56 enterprise that transforms human waste into a cheap and safe energy source. The company installs toilet facilities in the homes of subscribers for a small monthly fee. Sanivation collects the waste and treats it with solar thermal energy to create low- Customer Waste Reuse as oriented waste treatment and affordable cost briquettes for cooking and heating homes. The collection transformation fuel briquettes replace traditional charcoal, burn longer than standard coal, and release less pollution. “Currently in Kakuma, toilets are In 2013, Sanivation received funding for a pilot project supplied free of charge, with the in Kakuma camp, which helped determine the best model for in-home toilets and waste collection in a manufacturing cost subsidized refugee-camp setting. by multilateral partners. Yet, the toilet manufacturing cost can be There is an opportunity for Sanivation to expand in recovered from the sale of briquettes Kakuma, because the camp lacks space and funding manufactured from the waste, so the for new pit latrines, and the current facilities are overcrowded and unsanitary. Camp residents also network could be extended.” need charcoal for cooking and heating, presenting Benjamin Cramer – Director good near-term market potential for the company. of Operations 62 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE The challenge of providing water and sanitation services in the town and camp is also a potential opportunity for the private sector ©IFC and Luba Shara In the camp, a variety of service providers have sprung up from home grown Internet Service Providers to collectives of motorcycle taxis Water and sanitation services are provided by humanitarian partners, however refugees have expressed a willingness to pay for improved services ©IFC and Luba Shara Box 3.4 Sanergy – Safe sanitation in informal settlements and affordable fertilizer for farmers Sanergy, founded in Kenya in 2012, aims to provide residents of densely populated urban informal settlements with 24-hour access to sanitation and daily waste collection. The company uses sawdust instead of water for sanitation and turns the waste it collects into organic fertilizer. Since the launch of its pilot phase in 2011, Sanergy has franchised 800 toilets in three of Nairobi’s informal settlements. The toilets have more than 8,000 daily users, and the company has collected 500 tons of waste. In 2013, Acumen, SpringHill Equity Partners, and Eleos invested in the company, with the objective of growing to 50,000 daily users. Sanergy designs and manufactures low-cost, high-quality sanitation facilities, including the Fresh Life Toilet. Build It has a network of local residents who purchase and operate the toilets. Operators are franchise partners who are provided with Fresh Life Toilets, training, finance, operational and marketing support, and daily waste Franchise collection. Operators generate local demand and ensure that toilets are kept clean. Operations can be commercial, residential, or part of community institutions. It collects waste every day using wheelbarrows, handcarts, and trucks, ensuring that even remote locations are Collect serviced. At a central facility, Sanergy converts the waste into useful products such as organic fertilizer, insect-based animal Convert feed, and renewable energy. It sells the products in East Africa, where demand is strong and imported synthetic fertilizers are subject to tariffs and Transfer high transportation costs. ©IFC and Luba Shara KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 65 Energy When a household connects to a genset, it typically The potential for energy consumption and provision pays KES 500 a month per lightbulb connected and KES in Kakuma camp is considerable due to the large 500 a month for power outlets to charge phones, and population, high density, and presence of street it is provided power only in two four-hour blocks. Solar markets. Despite this opportunity, the energy market home systems have also begun entering the camp, and remains largely informal, and at the time of publishing there are agents for popular home solar providers in the this report, the Kenyan government had no plans to town. A World Bank-commissioned study found that connect the camp to the grid. refugees in Kakuma camp currently spend between KES 1,000 and KES 2,000 per month on energy services.58 Energy in the camp is provided by refugees running gensets, which are mostly clustered around market Power provision is costly, inefficient, environmentally areas to serve local businesses such as stores, unfriendly, and a fire hazard due to the use of old and barbers, internet cafés, grain mills, and even photo poorly maintained gensets and the ad-hoc stringing of studios. Most informal energy providers have more low-hanging power lines. Despite all this, the market than one generator with 100–150 connections. has been viable due to existing demand and has the Rates are negotiated connection by connection, potential to support a more formal energy market and the amount is based on a rough estimate of provided by commercial firms. usage. For example, a photo studio with a computer, printer, and lights was charged KES 1,500 a month Considering the high prices for energy in the camp, and only provided power in two four-hour blocks. home solar solutions such as those provided by M-Kopa and D.light could gain entry into the market (see box 3.5 and 3.6). Box 3.5 M-Kopa – Using home solar systems to light Africa M-Kopa, created in Kenya in 2011, sells affordable solar energy systems to people with limited or no access to electricity in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The basic kit includes a control unit, a battery, a solar panel, four bulbs, a torch, a radio, and phone-charging cables. The product costs $200 and requires an upfront payment of KES 2,999 ($29), followed by daily payments of KES 50 ($0.48) for a year, through M-Pesa’s mobile-money platform. M-Kopa also offers various products on credit once a customer has paid off the home solar system, including fuel-efficient cooking “Our repayment rate is stoves, bicycles, rainwater tanks, smartphones, and TVs. M-Kopa currently at 96 percent, has a 93 percent repayment rate for the first product and a and we need to keep it 98 percent rate for the second. at this level. That is why While M-Kopa has yet to formally market its products in Kakuma we are really cautious camp, the company specializes in targeting low-income consumers about the new population in rural and remote areas. In addition, M-Kopa has a local dealer or income segments we in Kakuma town who reports high demand in the camp. Overall, venture into.” M-Kopa has connected more than 400,000 homes in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. Kakuma camp presents a significant Deenah Kawira – opportunity—residents have limited access to electricity, and the Business Manager existing supply is costly and requires a lot of maintenance and fuel. While many refugees are willing to pay for solar, various economic and policy factors prevent M-Kopa from fully entering the refugee market. The provision of free firewood in the camp would reduce potential spending on solar. In addition, the company typically targets rural customers with regular and decent incomes, and income in Kakuma is considered too low. With refugee income irregular, M-Kopa expects higher default rates. Competition from other solar providers and the humanitarian community’s provision of free or subsidized systems also deter the company. 66 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE ©IFC and Luba Shara Many homes in camp lack access to electricity and lighting which has an effect on health, productivity, and education Box 3.6 D.light – Providing efficient solar lighting to the world D.light has been designing and selling affordable solar lanterns in developing countries since 2007, with funding from venture capital funds based in Silicon Valley and India. With headquarters in Hong Kong, it has offices in China, India, Tanzania, and the United States. It sells its lanterns through local dealers, networks, and distributors in 32 countries, with the majority of its sales in India and East Africa. D.light has an opportunity to provide Kakuma camp with solar lighting, which would help maximize household income, improve indoor air quality, reduce what people spend on energy, and extend study hours for children. • A typical kerosene lamp, used daily, burns about “In November 2015, 80 liters of kerosene each year, emitting 0.2 tons of carbon dioxide in that time. D.light and Unilever • Solar lanterns replace more than one kerosene piloted a private sector Environmental benefits lamp, saving large amounts of kerosene. development project in Kibera and finally • Solar lanterns give a much clearer, brighter, and more dependable light, making it easier extended it in Kenya. for students to study. It provided shopkeepers • Burning kerosene contributes to indoor air with D.light D20 home pollution, whereas solar lanterns emit no systems to extend their Social harmful fumes. opening hours. It has benefits • People can stay active into the night, enabling them to work or socialize longer. been really successful in rural areas and • Solar lanterns help people save money because shopkeepers increased they do not have to buy kerosene. their sales revenue.” • Solar lanterns promote income-generating Anthony Kinyua – activities because people are able to extend their Economic shop hours, charge their mobile phones, and work Platform Operations benefits on crafts in the evening. Manager KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 67 Vocational training centers in camp teach both refugees and host community members skills such as carpentry, plumbing, masonry, and sewing ©IFC and Dominic Chavez C H A P T E R 4 Challenges to Investing in Kakuma I n order to strengthen and expand emergencies, to conduct asylum/ private sector operations in the resettlement interviews at embassies Kakuma area, it is important in Nairobi, or for educational purposes. to understand the business environment challenges. This section This affects consumers, producers, and explains the constraints resulting suppliers since refugees cannot usually from legal and regulatory limitations, travel outside the camp to acquire the informality, and low human capital. goods or materials needed for shops or construction. As a result, they are often Legal and regulatory dependent on middlemen to negotiate limitations terms and the delivery goods, which The Refugee Act of 2006 defines a results in a loss of time, money, and refugee’s right to employment, control for business owners and higher movement, and ownership. While in prices for consumers. To get around this many cases, the act grants these rights, bottleneck, refugees attempt to bribe the ability of refugees to exercise them has their way through checkpoints, which been limited due to practical constraints entails its own costs and risks. and the ongoing encampment policy. Finally, refugees do not have access Refugees are legally entitled to formal to property rights. This has practical employment as they are technically implications as a refugee business may able to access work permits, seek and not own the land it sits on or the fixed gain employment, and start a business. assets it has invested in. In addition, But due to movement restrictions banks are hesitant to provide credit to imposed by the same act that entitles individuals or businesses as a lack of them to work, they are unable visit the ownership means a lack of collateral. necessary offices in Nairobi to obtain a work permit. To bypass this restriction, Level of informality many refugees work informally, In the camp, 27 percent of respondents are employed by NGOs as “interns,” say they pay an informal tax to run “incentive workers,” and “community their business, while the rate is organizers,” or use Kenyan nationals to 53 percent in Kakuma town. According front their businesses. Due to the legal to anthropologists working in the grey area in which they are working, camp, every business pays an informal refugees are vulnerable to exploitation, tax based on its size. Burundians, and companies that may want to hire Rwandans, and Kenyans have the refugees face procedural hurdles. highest rate of stated informal tax payment. These nationalities also tend Refugees must acquire written to have larger businesses, which could authorization from the Kenyan indicate that they have a stronger government to legally leave the camp. political influence or sense of security, Passes are not easily obtained, and are and can talk more freely about informal often provided only in cases of medical tax payments. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 69 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 4.1 Figure 4.1 Informal tax penetration 4.1 Informal tax penetration by shop owner nationality “AreInformal tax penetration you paying informal by shop taxes to get/maintain owner your license nationality to operate your business?” - 258 interviews, in % - “Are you paying informal taxes to get/maintain your license to operate your business?” - 258 interviews, in % - 60% A 56% F 53% 60% 52% A 56% F 53% 52% 37% 27% 37% 26% 22% 27% 26% 22% 10% 10% 0% Camp Town Rwanda Burundi Kenya DRC South Sudan Somalia Ethiopia Sudan Ltd 0% Sagaci Research Camp A Town B Rwanda A Burundi B Kenya C DRC D SouthESudan Somalia F Ethiopia G Sudan H Research Ltd Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) A A B B C D E F G H Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 57 © Sagaci © Source: Sagaci Research (field study and analysis) Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 57 More than 60 percent of women in the camp and town combined have no schooling (compared with 21 percent of men). Eight times as many men than women have completed a university degree and 3.5 times as many men have some vocational or technical training. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 4.2 Education level in camp and town Low education 4.2 One of the key challenges for doing business in 4.2 Kakuma is the low level of education, as commercial Respondent education level firms and social enterprises may not always be able Respondent education level “What is the highest level of education you personally have achieved?” to find qualified candidates to employ. Refugees are - 1,417 interviews, “What % the in is - highest level of education you personally ha lagging their peers from Kakuma town, indicating 1,417 311 1,106 - 1,417 interviews, in % - a possible displacement effect on education. More 1,417 311 1,106 than 50  percent of refugees have no schooling, 33% compared with 33 percent of those in the town. The 47% A 51% 33% rate of high school education or vocational training A 47% 51% for refugees is 19 percent and 3 percent respectively, 22% compared with 30 percent and 7 percent in the town. This has a negative effect on employment status,25% 22% 26% business ownership, income, and savings. 30% 25% 26% 21% While formal education may be lacking, a variety 19% 30% 7% of organizations provide vocational and business 4% 7% 3% 3% 21% 2% 19% training programs in the camp and town. 7% Total K-Town K-Camp 4% 7% 2% 3% A Although the exact number of refugees trained and 3% B No schooling Vocation/Technical organizations providing training is unclear, the labor Primary school Total University degree K-Town K-Camp A B pool available to potential employers may be more High school No schooling Vocation/Technical skilled than the education figures suggest. 59 Source: Sagaci Research analysis Primary school University degree Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 5 High school Source: Sagaci Research analysis Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential 70 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 4.3 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 4.3 Education status by gender -“What is by Figure 4.3 Education status gender the highest level of education you personally have achieved?” - 1,417 interviews, in % - 61% A Education status by gender -“What is the highest level of education you personally have achieved?” - 1,417 interviews, in % - 61% A B 21% 23% 20% B 18% 16% B B B 9% 8% 7% 6% 7% 5% 2% 1% No schooling Some primary Primary school Some high school B High school 23%Vocation/Technical University degree 21% school20% completed completed training completed © Sagaci Research Ltd A B 18% A B A B A B B A B A B A B 16% DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Male Female B B B Source: Sagaci Research analysis 9% 8% 7% DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 6% 7% Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential 5% Page 59 4.4 part 1 2% 1% part 1 4.4Respondent Figure 4.4 No schooling Some education level by country of origin primary Respondent Primary education school Some high level by High school school of origin country Vocation/Technical University degree school completed completed training completed A B A “What B is the highest Respondent A level ofBeducation you personally education A level by have achieved?” B country Aof origin B A B A B - 1,417 interviews, in % - “What is the highest level Male of education you personally have achieved?” Female - 1,417 interviews, in % - Source: Sagaci Research analysis 60% A,C,E,F,G Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 59 D Somalia 60% A,C,E,F,G 23% (355) 13% 3% 1% D Somalia 23% (355) 13% 53% A,B,D 3% 1% Sudan 26% 53% A,B,D 16% DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT C (43) 2% 2% Sudan 26% 16% C (43) 54% A,C,E 2% 2% South 2 4.4 part 27% Sudan 54% A,C,E B 15% (524) South 2% 1% Sudan Respondent education 27% level by country of origin B 15% (524) “What is the highest level of education30% 33% you personally have achieved?” 2% B,D 1% B,D B Kenya 22% - 1,417 interviews, in % - © Sagaci Research Ltd A (311) 7% 7% 33% 30% B,D B B,D Kenya 22% © Sagaci Research Ltd A No schooling (311) 43% Primary school High school 7% Vocation/Technical University degree7% Source: Sagaci Research analysis Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential H Rwanda No schooling Primary school High school Vocation/Technical Page 60 University degree (14)Sagaci Research analysis Source: 1% 1% 7% 7% Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 60 33% 28% B,D Burundi 25% G (36) 6% 8% 33% 29% 27% Ethiopia F (52) 6% 6% 35% B,D B,D 28% 26% © Sagaci Research Ltd E DRC (68) 3% 7% No schooling Primary school High school Vocation/Technical University degree Source: Sagaci Research analysis Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 61 KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 71 ©IFC and Dominic Chavez Students in class in Kakuma camp The level of formal education among respondents Low financial literacy also varies by gender, nationality, and ethnicity, Beyond basic education, an entrepreneur’s success suggesting that displacement is not the only factor requires a certain level of financial literacy. The study at play. More than 60 percent of women in the camp shows that residents of Kakuma camp and town and town combined have no schooling (compared struggle with basic financial concepts. Financial literacy with 21  percent of men). Eight times as many men is low in the Kakuma area overall, but especially in the than women have completed a university degree camp, where 73 percent of refugees have no information and 3.5 times as many men have some vocational or on financial matters. Roughly 8  percent of refugee technical training. respondents get information from their workplace and 6 percent from their family. By comparison, 55 percent Bynationality,60 percentofSomalis,54 percentofSouth of respondents in the town have information on Sudanese, and 43  percent of Rwandan respondents financial matters, with 29 percent gaining knowledge stated that they do not have any schooling. In from their workplace and 9 percent from the internet. contrast, only 16 percent of Sudanese and 28 percent of Congolese respondents have no schooling, suggesting Almost a third of respondents among refugees that national or cultural differences also play a role admitted to never having heard the word “bank,” and in education. 62  percent the word “interest.” Many refugees in the camp do not understand mobile money and mobile Ethnicity is another factor – Somali Somalis are better banking – 52  percent have never heard of mobile off than Somali Bantus (53 percent and 71 percent have money and 57  percent have never heard of mobile no schooling, respectively). The same applies to the banking. In comparison, comprehension of these Dinka and Nuer camp residents from South Sudan, terms in the town is quite high. Accordingly, mobile- with 77  percent of Dinka having no education and money use in the town (86  percent) is much higher 38 percent of Nuer. than in the camp (31 percent). 72 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 4.5 Financial literacy information sources 4.5 Financial information source “What are your source(s) of information on financial matters?” - 1,417 interviews, in % - B 73% K-Camp K-Town 45% A 29% A A A 8% 6% 6% 9% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% I do not have any From work place Other family Internet Elder brother Father Mosque/ Shopkeepers Autaq/Jigra information on member (open) Church/Temple financial matters A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B © Sagaci Research Ltd Almost a third of respondents among refugees admitted to never having heard the word “bank,” Economic 73 assessment of percent Kakuma January word Refugee Camp |the 2017 | Sagaci“pension,” Research | Confidential 62 percent the word “interest.” Page 62 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 4.6 Awareness and comprehension of “bank” and “interest” Awareness and Awareness and comprehension of the comprehension DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT of the word “bank” word “interest” “I am going to read out some “I am going to read out some 4.5 words, please tell me whether you […]? (Bank)” words, please tell me whether you […]? (Interest)” - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - Financial- information source K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - “What are your source(s) of information on financial A B matters?” 27% 62% I never heard never interviews, - I1,417 heard in % - B of it of it 73% 7% 30% B K-Camp K-Town A45% B I have heard 24%A I have heard 20% of it but I don’t 29% of it but I don’t understand it 8% understand it B A A 12% A 8% 6% 6% 9% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% A any From work place I do not have Other family Internet Elder brother Father Mosque/ Shopkeepers Autaq/Jigra informationIon have heard 49% member (open) I have heard 18% Church/Temple financial matters of it and I of it and I A A it understand B B 85%A A B A B understand A it B A B A B A B A B © Sagaci Research Ltd B 58% alysis kuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 63 KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 73 Sagaci Research Ltd DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 4.7 Awareness and comprehension of “mobile money” and “mobile banking” Awareness and comprehension Awareness and comprehension of the word “mobile money” of the word “mobile banking” “I am going to read out some words, please “I am going to read out some words, please tell me whether you […]? (Mobile money)” tell me whether you […]? (Mobile banking)” - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - A 52% B 57% B I never heard I never heard of it of it 34% 25% B A 20% B I have heard B I have heard 17% of it but I don’t of it but I don’t understand it 18% understand it 12% B A I have heard 29% I have heard 26% of it and I of it and I understand it 48% A understand it 63% A © Sagaci Research Ltd B K-Camp K-Town mp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 64 Many residents in Kakuma have never heard of the bank fees and taxes. Most respondents in the town word ATM. While a lack of understanding about ATMs know and understand these words, while most in was similar in both the camp and town (70  percent the camp have never heard of them. Similarly, many of camp respondents and 67  percent of town refugees have never heard of the terms microfinance respondents have never heard of the word), there are (79 percent), loan (55 percent), or profit (56 percent), large gaps in awareness of other key concepts like while their peers in the town have. DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 4.8 Awareness and comprehension of “tax,” “ATM,” and “bank fees” Awareness and Awareness and Awareness and comprehension of the comprehension of the comprehension of the word “tax” word “ATM” word “bank fees” “I am going to read out some “I am going to read out some “I am going to read out some words, please tell me whether words, please tell me whether words, please tell me whether you […]? (Tax)” you […]? (ATM)” you […]? (Bank service - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-town 311 interviews, in % - charges/fees)” - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - A 57% B 70% 62% B I never heard I never heard B I never heard of it of it of it 30% 67% 30% B A 19% I have heard B I have heard 15% B I have heard 21% B of it but I don’t of it but I don’t of it but I don’t understand it 10% understand it 9% understand it 19% B A I have heard 25% I have heard 15% I have heard 17% of it and I of it and I of it and I A B understand it A understand it understand it © Sagaci Research Ltd 60% 24% 51% A alysis K-Camp K-Town kuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 65 74 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT 4.9 Figure 4.9 Awareness and comprehension of “microfinance,” “profit,” and “loans” Awareness and Awareness and Awareness and comprehension of the comprehension of the comprehension of the word “microfinance” word “profit” word “loans” “I am going to read out some “I am going to read out some “I am going to read out some words, please tell me whether words, please tell me whether words, please tell me whether you […]? (Bank)” you […]? (Profit on you […]? (Loans from formal and - K-town 311 interviews, in % - savings/business etc.)” informal institutions” - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-town 311 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - - K-camp 1,106 interviews, in % - A 79% 56% B 55% B I never heard B I never heard I never heard of it of it of it B 50% 23% 20% A B B I have heard 12% I have heard 14% I have heard 16% Bof it but I don’t of it but I don’t of it but I don’t understand it 17% A understand it 10% understand it 10% A I have heard 9% I have heard 31% I have heard 29% of it and I of it and I of it and I B understand it A understand it A understand it A © Sagaci Research Ltd 33% 67% 70% Source: Sagaci Research analysis K-Camp K-Town Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 66 To fully expand the market in Kakuma, this gap in these services would benefit from financial financial literacy would need to be addressed. literacy campaigns or other interventions to raise awareness. A sequenced approach to introducing Complex concepts such as Islamic banking and credit financial services might be useful—starting with cards are poorly understood by most respondents basic services, such as mobile money, to pave the in the camp and town. Expanding or introducing way for more complex products.60 Although refugees own a variety of shops from open stalls to large wholesalers they face challenges such as limited access to credit, limited movement, and low financial literacy ©IFC and Luba Shara Low savings Low financial literacy also correlates with low Respondents save in different ways and for different savings, with 58 percent of those in the town and reasons, reflecting their socioeconomic status and only 21 percent of those in the camp having saved in vulnerabilities. The most common reason to save the last 12 months. Respondents in the camp save for those in the town is to invest in or develop their small amounts more frequently than those in the business (29  percent) or for education (21  percent). town (less than KES 50 and between KES 50 and In comparison, refugees save primarily for KES 1,000). However, town respondents are more medical expenses/emergencies (21  percent), food likely to save larger sums of money, from KES 4,000 (17 percent), or their business (14 percent). Kenyans DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT to KES  10,000. It is important to note that these mostly save their money in financial institutions figures are incomplete because 29  percent of camp (32  percent), at home (23  percent), or with 4.11 respondents and 35  percent of town respondents a friend (17 percent). DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT would not disclose the amount they saved. Average savings 4.11 DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT “Over the last 12 months, how much on average have you saved per month, in KES?” Figure 4.10 Average savings over the last year 4.11 - K-town Average 208 interviews, in % - savings - K-camp 300 interviews, in % - “Over the last 12 months, how much on average have you saved • 29% of the total sample have saved over the last 12 months per month, in KES?” savings Average 35% - K-town 208 interviews, in % - • Discrepancy between town and“Over the last 12 300 - K-camp interviews, months, - average have you saved in %on how much camp: 58% of local Kenyans save per month, in KES?” 29% • 29% ofvs. the total 21% of sample have refugees - K-town 208 interviews, in % - 35% saved over the last 12 months - K-camp 300 interviews, in % - • Discrepancy between town and camp: •58% 29%of of the local total sample Kenyans save have 29% 35% vs. 21% of saved over the last 12 months refugees • Discrepancy between town and B camp: 58% of local Kenyans save B 14% 29% 12% 11% vs. 21% of refugees B 10% 8% 8% 9% B 6% B 6% B 6% 6% 5% B 5% 4% 5% 5% 14% 5% 3% 4% 12% 11% 1% B 10% 9% 2% 0% B 8% 8% B 5% KES 50 to 6% B B 6% 6% 14% 6% Less than KES 100 to KES 500 to KES 12% 1,000 to5%KES 2,000 to 4% KES 3,000 5% KES 4,000 to 5% to KES 5,000 to KES 5%7,000 to More than Undisclosed 3% 4% B 11% KES 50 KES 100 KES 500 10% KES 1,000 KES 2,000 KES 3,000 4,000 KES 2% KES 5,000 KES 7,000 KES 10,000 KES 10,000 1% 8% 8% 9% 0% B 6% 6% 6% 5% A6% B B © Sagaci Research Ltd A B A 5%B A B A B A B A 5% B A B A 5% B 5%A B A B Less than 3%KES 50 to KES 100 to 4% KES 500 to KES 1,000 to KES 2,000 to KES 3,000 to KES4% 4,000 to KES 5,000 to KES 7,000 to More than Undisclosed KES 50 KES 100 KES 1%500 KES 1,000 KES 2,000 KES 3,000 KES 4,000 KES 5,000 2%KES 7,000 KES 10,000 KES 10,000 0% Camp Town © Sagaci Research Ltd A B A B KES A Less than 50 toB KES 100 A to B KES 500 A toB KES 1,000 A to A toB KES 2,000 A to B KES 3,000 B KES 4,000 A to A to B KES 5,000 A toB More than B KES 7,000 Undisclosed DRAFT – WORKING Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential DOCUMENT Page 68 KES 50 KES 100 KES 500 KES 1,000 KES 2,000 KES 3,000 KES 4,000 KES 5,000 KES 7,000 KES 10,000 KES 10,000 Camp Town © Sagaci Research Ltd A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B 4.12 Figure 4.11 Purpose for saving Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 68 Camp Town Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential What have you been saving for Page 68 “Over the last 12 months, what have you been saving for?” - 508 interviews - 14% 19% 29% 33% 35% 24% 8% 48% 11% 28% 21% 14% 19% 20% 8% 12% 13% 9% 9% 18% 11% 17% 11% 21% 13% 17% 9% 9% 8% K-camp K-town Business owner Self-employed Working for Housewife Independent someone as worker an employee For business (invest or develop) For Ramadan/Iftar For education No savings in the past 12 months For food Pay off a loan faster To pay for medical expenses For household good Other Or to provide for family in case of problem 76 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Sagaci Research Ltd DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 4.12 Methods for saving money 4.13 Institutions used to save money for more than one day “Over the last 12 months, have you used the following to store or save money for more than one day?” - 508 interviews - Financial With another Advance purchase institution At home Tontine family member With a friend Deposit with retailer 32% 23% 8% 3% 17% 2% Kenya 68% 77% 92% 97% 83% 98% 19% 37% 8% 8% 4% 1% Somalia 81% 63% 92% 92% 96% 99% 8% 29% 21% 0% 6% 3% South Sudan 92% 71% 79% 100% 94% 97% Other 13% 44% 21% 5% 5% 5% nationalities 87% 56% 79% 95% 95% 95% 11% 28% 11% 3% 0% 0% DRC 89% 72% 89% 97% 100% 100% © Sagaci Research Ltd Yes No Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 70 Among refugees, only Somalis make wide use of Due to the complications around formally hiring financial institutions (19  percent). Most refugees refugees, businesses might find it difficult to employ save at home or through a tontine.61 The survey the best candidates. Although the camp and town findings suggest that while those in the town save are located only 120 kilometers away by road from for positive outcomes, those in the camp mostly the closest major town and commercial airport in save as a coping strategy. Lodwar, the drive takes three to four hours due to the poor quality of the roads. Moreover, the time needed High cost of doing business to make this trip can increase significantly during While the study did not directly measure the cost the rainy reason. Finally, as the camp is a confined of doing business, the combination of restrictive environment, which has resulted in an opaque regulations, remoteness, poor infrastructure, and a political economy, it may be difficult for private specific political economy suggests high transaction enterprises to not only understand but also conduct costs relative to areas in central and western Kenya. business in the camp. Due to the complications around formally hiring refugees, businesses might find it difficult to employ the best candidates. Although the camp and town are located only 120 kilometers away by road from the closest major town and commercial airport in Lodwar, the drive takes three to four hours due to the poor quality of the roads. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 77 Students in an overcrowded classroom in Kakuma camp ©IFC and Dominic Chavez C H A P T E R 5 Outlook A ttracting the private sector Kakuma area were organized for a and social enterprises group of IFC’s investment officers and to the Kakuma area and representatives of private companies supporting local and refugee to collect additional information entrepreneurs has the potential to and begin outreach. The outreach expand job opportunities, improve campaign, which includes the launch services, provide more choice, and of this report, will also entail meetings reduce prices. In turn, this could with private sector businesses and enhance the self-reliance of both social enterprises to discuss the communities and their socioeconomic opportunities and challenges present integration, while contributing to the in the camp and town. development of the hosting region. This is in the spirit of the global agenda of In addition to data, commercial the Comprehensive Refugee Response firms, social enterprises, and local Framework62 and, more widely, of entrepreneurs would benefit from “leaving no-one behind.”63 In order to technical assistance and incentives in move towards achieving this, three key the form of seed capital or de-risking to objectives would need to be reached: encourage their engagement with this new market. Attract private businesses, including • commercial firms and social It will be important to support market- enterprises, to enter the market and based development of commercial provide opportunities to scale up firms (banks, microfinance institutions, operations of enterprises already telecommunications companies, and present in the area. small and medium enterprises from other sectors) and social enterprises • Develop refugee and host communities’ (companies that look to attain and entrepreneurship potential, with a maximize financial, social, and focus on young people and women, by environmental impacts). Doing so supporting their businesses to grow would provide opportunities for the and providing vocational skills training, host community and refugees to business development services, and contribute to their own socioeconomic microfinance opportunities. development as producers, traders, workers, and consumers. It would • Support policy dialogue and advocacy also encourage both businesses in and efforts focused on creating a more outside of hosting areas to provide conducive business environment and services in a sustainable way. attracting private sector companies to the area. Financing for private sector companies and social enterprises could include a Addressing the data gap by collecting combination of interest-free loans and information on and quantifying the grants and could require cofinancing, Kakuma area market is the first step based on a matching funds principle. in a complex process towards the This model could be used as an above objectives. Following this study, incentive to push existing companies a number of scoping missions to the and social enterprises to enter the KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 79 market or scale up operations in order to increase sustainable access to public goods and essential services for refugees and host communities. In particular, small and medium enterprises and local commercial firms could be targeted and assisted to set up agents (as opposed to only fully fledged company operations) for the business areas identified in chapter 3 (such as mobile- money kiosks, banking agents as opposed to proper branches, and microfinance agents). The development and launch of operations would provide new job opportunities and result in these enterprises acting as employment offtakers from vocational and livelihoods programs in the camp and town. Technical assistance has been provided by NGOs to individual refugees and members of the host community; however, it will need to be scaled up to include micro and small enterprises. While many businesses exist in Kakuma—particularly in the trade and services sectors—most of these are small and at an early stage of development and could benefit from assistance from existing or new providers of financial and business development services (banks, microfinance institutions, NGOs, and others). The way forward The ultimate beneficiaries of a market-based approach in the Kakuma area would be entrepreneurs among refugees and the host community, social enterprises that are already present in the area or who would consider starting operations, and commerical firms planning to expand or start their business in the area. Refugees and the host community will also benefit indirectly from the proposed approach due to improved access to products and services, job opportunities, and potentially lower prices. Indirectly, the Turkana County Government and the broader county population would benefit from the increased investments as well. More broadly, depending on the success of such an approach, similar initiatives could be expanded to other areas in Kenya, East Africa, and potentially beyond in the long term. 80 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Markets in camp host a variety of businesses that have informal access to electricity and often accept mobile money ©IFC and Dominic Chavez Methodology Kakuma as a Marketplace comprises four Selecting respondents for quantitative components: an in-depth review of previous interviews was a three-stage process. In studies, a survey of 1,417 households in Kakuma the first stage, the team selected primary camp and town, interviews with UNHCR and sampling units, which consisted of 126 blocks other agencies present in Kakuma, and case making up the four subcamps. Each unit was studies of private companies already active fully delineated by Sagaci field coordinators in the camp or that might be potentially in collaboration with block leaders or local interested in launching operations there. representatives. In stage two, the team selected starting points and random routes. In To avoid duplicating previously conducted the third stage, the team chose a respondent research, the team reviewed papers produced from each household, targeting the head of by humanitarian, development, government, household or the person in charge of shopping. academic, and private sector actors. Most of these reports focused on livelihoods, Twenty-four enumerators, recruited in vulnerability, job training, education, and Kakuma camp and town, collected data. The the economic impact of refugees on hosting six women and 18 men, from the Democratic communities. Existing private sector Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, interventions in refugee camps and hosting Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda, areas were limited, ad hoc, not necessarily spoke a myriad of languages used in the area commercially viable, and in need of scaling and understood different cultures. A Sagaci up. Although telecommunications and some and IFC field team trained the enumerators, other industries have made inroads into the ensured quality control, and monitored the refugee markets, there was little information execution of the survey. on for-profit ventures in camps and host communities. The statistical significance of the findings was assessed using a two-tailed t-test at a To create a private sector-focused survey 95 percent confidence interval, signifying that instrument that would produce clear and the difference between the category studied reliable data, drafting the questionnaire was and the reference sample has less than a an iterative process involving colleagues from 5  percent probability of occurring by chance the private sector, humanitarian agencies, or sampling error alone. Figures statistically and international financial institutions. different at a 95 percent level are indicated Key contributors were IFC, the World Bank, by the symbols A, B, C, and D on the graphs. UNHCR, and Sagaci.64 The team collected Different letters correspond to different data using computer-assisted personal categories, as indicated in each figure. interviewing tablets. 82 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE One of the enumerators conducting the survey in a tailor’s shop in Kakuma camp ©IFC and Luba Shara DRAFT – WORKING DOCUMENT Figure 4 Figure 4 Overview of survey sample Respondent location “In which part of the city/camp are you located?” - 1,417 interviews, in % - 311 interviews 1,106 interviews 28% 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% 16% 14% 11% 11% Kakuma town K1 K2 K3 K4 © Sagaci Research Ltd Target sample Achieved sample Source: Sagaci Research analysis Economic assessment of Kakuma Refugee Camp | January 2017 | Sagaci Research | Confidential Page 71 KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 83 References Betts, A., Bloom, L., Kaplan, J., & Omata, N. (2014). Refugee UNHCR. (2017, September). Weekly Update–Voluntary Economies: Rethinking Popular Assumptions. 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Retrieved from http://www.unhcr.org/ke/857-statistics.html 84 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE Notes 1 KES 103.2 to US$1 was the exchange rate used during the 36 Oka 2011. analysis of the data. 37 Market sizes were calculated based on average monthly 2 The Conflict-Affected States in Africa Initiative (CASA) is a spending per household (taking into account penetration donor-funded, IFC-implemented (and cofunded) platform levels) for the main national groups in Kakuma: Kenyans, designed to enable and implement private sector initiatives South Sudanese, and others (the remaining nationalities across selected fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) were grouped together to avoid bias because of limited in Africa. CASA focuses on three core elements: it puts people sample sizes). Average monthly spending per household on the ground in (most of) the FCS where it operates; it was extrapolated from the total number of households for allocates funding to and supports the implementation of each group (based on latest UNHCR population data and the IFC Advisory projects in these countries; and it undertakes a observed household size in the survey). range of knowledge management activities, contributing to 38 Per capita household consumption for Kenya was a better understanding of the private sector’s contribution sourced from World Bank Open Data website figures in these challenging markets. Ireland, the Netherlands, and (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRVT. Norway have partnered with IFC and supported CASA since PC.KD?locations=KE). Amounts for the camp and town were its inception in 2008. calculated by dividing consumption by population. Those 3 The population figure of 160,000 inhabitants in Kakuma figures were then adjusted to constant 2010 U.S. dollars refugee camp is as of October 2016, which is the time of the using the consumer price index to convert from 2016 dollars study. to 2010. 4 UNHCR Global Trends Report 2016. This figure includes 39 Vemuru, Oka, Gengo, and Gettler 2016, 216–217. refugees, asylum seekers, returnees, stateless people, certain 40 Ibid. groups of internally displaced people, and other individuals 41 Omata 2016. of concern to the UNHCR. The report indicates that at the 42 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. end of 2016, Africa hosted 5.6 million refugees and asylum 43 Ibid. seekers, almost 13.2 million internally displaced people and 44 IRIN 2017. returnees, and 715,000 stateless people. 45 Based on interviews with World Bank Group Finance, 5 Vemuru, Oka, Gengo, and Gettler 2016, 216–217. Competitiveness, and Innovation. 6 Ibid. 46 Somalis have historical business ties in Turkana; a strong 7 M-Pesa is a mobile-money platform owned by Safaricom international network through their diaspora in North that is prevalent throughout Kenya in all socioeconomic America, Europe, and the Middle East; and access to financial groups. Transactions require a SIM card and mobile phone services through “hawalas” (a traditional money transfer and allow for the transfer of funds. network). 8 The consumption estimate is conservative as it does not 47 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. include in-kind aid distribution or the provision of free 48 UNHCR note to donors. services by humanitarian agencies. 49 World Food Programme 2014. 9 Per capita household consumption for Kenya was sourced 50 Samuel Hall 2016. from World Bank figures (https://data.worldbank.org/ 51 Ibid. indicator/NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD?locations=KE). Amounts for 52 Ibid. the camp and town were calculated by dividing consumption 53 World Food Programme 2014. by population. Those figures were then adjusted to constant 54 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. 2010 U.S. dollars using the consumer price index to convert 55 Samuel Hall 2016. from 2016 dollars to 2010. 56 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. 10 Omata 2016. 57 UNHCR 2017a. 11 Omata 2016. 58 World Bank 2016 “Unlocking Business Potential in Frontier 12 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. Markets: Framework Development and Demand Analysis.” 13 Ibid. 59 Among others, the following organizations provide 14 Ibid. vocational and business training in the Kakuma area: 15 Ibid. Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), Danish Refugee Council 16 Turkana County Government 2015. (DRC), Kuza Biashara, Swiss Contact, Action Africa Help 17 Omata 2016. International (AAHI), and Don Bosco. 18 Sanghi and Onder 2016. 60 World Bank 2016b. 19 Turkana County Government and United Nations 2015. 61 A tontine is a system of group savings in which individuals 20 Ruvaga 2015. pay a predetermined amount into a common pool of money. 21 Dadaab camp complex is located in Garissa County, Each contributor receives the total of the pooled funds on a northeast Kenya, bordering Somalia. turn-by-turn basis. 22 As indicated by price correlation between markets. 62 The New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants is 23 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. a milestone for global solidarity and refugee protection 24 World Food Programme 2014. that lays out a vision for a more predictable and more 25 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. comprehensive response to these crises, known as the 26 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 2009. Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework, or CRRF. 27 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. One of the key aspects of the CRRF is the promotion of 28 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. socioeconomic integration and refugee self-reliance. 29 Figures statistically different at a 95 percent level are 63 In order to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable indicated by the symbols A, B, C and D on the graphs. Development, the principle of “leaving no one behind” was Different letters correspond to different categories, as adopted to ensure goals and targets are met for all nations indicated in each figure. and people and for all segments of society. In particular, 30 Omata 2016. vulnerable groups – including children, youth, people with 31 Kimetrica, UNHCR, and World Food Programme 2016. disabilities, people living with HIV, older people, indigenous 32 Regular income is defined as average monthly earnings. people, refugees, internally displaced people and migrants – 33 World Bank Group and UNHCR 2016. should be targeted. 34 Jacobsen 2002. 64 Sagaci is a private sector market research firm based in 35 Samuel Hall 2016. Nairobi, Kenya. KAKU M A AS A M AR KETPLACE 85 Kakuma offers significant potential for the private sector to invest, to the benefit of both refugees and host communities. Scaling up the private sector in Kakuma will help refugees become more self-reliant and create opportunities for host communities. Kakuma presents a significant informal economy built on entrepreneurship. Refugees are active as employers, consumers, and producers. Formalizing its informal businesses as well attracting new social enterprises and commercial firms could translate into revenues and benefits for Turkana county’s government and its people. The market size of Kakuma is conservatively estimated at $56 million annually, and the population of 220,000 makes it comparable to the tenth largest city in Kenya. Sectors with potential for investment include retail trade, mobile financial services, banking, energy, livestock, health, education, and water. 86 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE 86 K A K U MA A S A M A RK E T P L A CE ©IFC and Dominic Chavez About IFC IFC – a sister organization of the World Bank and member of the World Bank Group – is the largest global development institution focused on the private sector in emerging markets. We work with more than 2,000 businesses worldwide, using our capital, expertise, and influence to create markets and opportunities in the toughest areas of the world. In FY17, we delivered a record $19.3 billion in long-term financing for developing countries, leveraging the power of the private sector to help end poverty and boost shared prosperity. For more information, visit www.ifc.org. Working with IFC’s FCS Africa Program IFC’s FCS Africa Program partners with governments, development and financial institutions, and other groups and individuals to maximize its impact in Africa. For more information, please contact: Luba Shara (lshara@ifc.org) and Daniela Henrike Klau-Panhans (dklaupanhans@worldbank.org) Stay connected www.facebook.com/IFCAfrica www.twitter.com/IFCAfrica April 2018