For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS Data Country: Papua New Guinea CPS Year: FY13 CPS Period: FY13 – FY16 CLR Period: FY13 – FY18 Date of this review: May 9, 2019 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory WBG Performance: Good Fair 3. Executive Summary i. This review of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Completion and Learning Review (CLR) covers the period of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), FY13-FY16, and updated in the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) dated July 1, 2016. At the PLR stage, the CPS period was extended by two years. ii. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a lower middle-income country with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $2,340 in 2017. Oil and gas extraction has been the main driver of economic growth. During the CPS period, GDP growth varied considerably, from 0.3 percent in 2018 to 15 percent in 2014, due to volatility in commodity prices and disruption in the operations of three major mining and petroleum projects from a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in 2018. The country’s Human Development Index increased from 0.52 percent in 2010 to 0.544 in 2017, ranking 153rd among 189 countries in 2017. PNG rejoined the WBG’s Harmonized List of Fragile and conflict affected situation Countries (FCS) in FY17 and FY18. This list had excluded PNG since 2011. iii. The World Bank Group’s (WBG) CPS had three pillars (or focus areas): (i) increased and more gender-equitable access to inclusive physical and financial infrastructure, (ii) gender- equitable improvements in lives and livelihoods, and (iii) increasingly prudent management of revenues and benefits. The CPS pillars were broadly aligned with goals under the three Government plans, covering the period 2011 to 22. The three government plans covered several sectors and themes including infrastructure, incomes, human development, gender, and resource management that the CPS pillars also sought to support. iv. At the beginning of the CPS period, IDA total commitments were $170 million, with eight IPF operations covering six sectors. During the CPS period, total new commitments were $292 million, below planned CPS ($388 million) and PLR ($554 million) commitments. The new lending portfolio consisted of five new operations, including one emergency project in response to rising tuberculosis rates, and two Additional Financing (AF) for projects under the pre-existing portfolio. During the CPS period, trust funds supported 11 new activities, including three AF. IFC made total net commitments of $85.3 million. v. IEG rates the CPS development outcome as Moderately Unsatisfactory. On Focus Area I, there was good progress on roads rehabilitation and telecommunications services, modest progress on access to credit, and no progress on access to energy or water. On Focus Area II, CLR Review CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: Manager/Coordinator Mauricio Carrizosa Nils Fostvedt Jeff Chelsky IEGEC Consultant IEGEC Consultant Manager, IEGEC Takatoshi Kamezawa Lourdes Pagaran Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGEC CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 2 there was good progress on improving smallholder agricultural yields, youth training and employment; and modest progress on improving the efficiency of opening a business. On Focus Area III, good progress was achieved on local decision making on rural services, modest progress on extractives management, and no progress on debt sustainability. vi. IEG rates WBG performance as Fair. The CPS addressed well-identified development challenges, envisaged appropriate instruments (IPF and ASA), and planned on an integrated Bank-IFC joint approach. However, the CPS was not selective enough for PNG’s limited capacity, with three focus areas and 11 objectives. The results framework had significant shortcomings, with CPS objectives formulated as broad thematic areas, rather than as program-level objectives in line with Bank Group interventions. The CPS identified relevant risks and outlined appropriate mitigation measures. Planned ASA broadly supported CPS objectives. Implementation was mixed, with Bank lending and IFC investments below planned CPS volumes. Bank-IFC collaboration was less integrated than the CPS envisaged. The PLR missed an opportunity to narrow and focus CPS objectives with what Bank Group interventions could achieve. Changes at the PLR stage further weakened the results framework including with the introduction of a new objective (improved access to water) that was unlikely to be delivered within the CPS period. The active and closed portfolio did not perform well and the high share of projects and commitments at risk, even for an FCS, suggest that portfolio management efforts have not been effective. No Inspection Panel investigation was recorded during the CPS. However, the Smallholder Agriculture Development Project had been the subject of an Inspection Panel investigation starting in FY10. The investigation was closed in FY14 with all noncompliance issues reported to have been successfully mitigated. None of the four complaints to INT were converted to cases. vii. The CLR provides three lessons: First, portfolio improvements require sustained engagement by all project teams, implementing agencies, and the Government, as well as stronger interagency coordination. Second, PNG’s institutional and social fragility places a premium on understanding political economy factors with a bearing on projects, and on monitoring and ensuring awareness of grievance redress mechanisms. Third, partnerships can help expand ASA, increase the WBG’s impact, and test new ideas. viii. IEG adds the following lessons: • CPS objectives will need to be appropriately defined and delimited to capture what Bank Group interventions can achieve. During the CPS, alignment between objectives and interventions was weak in some areas, as objectives were broad and imprecise (e.g., “Financial Sector”) and interventions often limited in scope (e.g., on access to finance). Bank Group strategies in PNG need to define objectives that its interventions can achieve and monitor achievements with robust indicators. • Achievement of development objectives often requires more than one CPS period. In the case of PNG, efforts to achieve EITI candidacy, which the previous CAS supported, began to bear fruit only during this CPS and will require continued attention in upcoming strategies. • To strengthen coordination across the Bank Group, it is important to identify early those opportunities where the Bank, IFC and MIGA can work together. Although the CPS envisaged an integrated approach, actual joint work was limited, and it did not articulate how it would be implemented. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. The CPS, as extended by the PLR by two years, was framed by three development plans, covering the 2011-22 period. The three CPS focus areas (infrastructure, lives and livelihoods, and revenue/benefit management) were broadly aligned with specific infrastructure, human development, macro management and other goals CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 3 under the three Government’s plans: Medium Term Development Plans (MTDPs) 2011-2015, 2016- 2017, and 2018-2022. The CPS was also consistent with reconstruction and reconciliation priorities the peace agreement in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville. 1 2. The CPS focus areas and objectives addressed some of PNG’s critical development constraints such as dire and climate-vulnerable road conditions, low cash crop yields, low education enrollment and outcomes, crime and violence and rising public debt. Gender dimensions were also prominent. The CPS objectives did not cover important development constraints including shortfalls in primary and maternal care. The PLR proposed increased support to excluded communities and the growing youth population. Among its other adjustments, and following the legislative approval of PNG’s Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) in 2015, the PLR replaced the SWF-related outcome (outreach on the proposed SWF) with an outcome on debt sustainability. However, the SWF was approved but not established. The PLR dropped the SWF objective from the program, although the Bank continued providing advisory support. Having a SWF in place has been a long-standing Government goal for managing PNG’s unstable mining revenues. 3. Relevance of Design. Proposed interventions could reasonably be expected to contribute to most CPS objectives and related government goals. However, the CPS objectives were articulated as broad themes, while the overall WBG program was limited in scope and coverage. Most CPS objectives were to be achieved through investment lending, primarily from the pre-existing portfolio, with the exception of improved debt management which was to be supported through ASA. IFC was to focus on access to finance, investment climate, Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and energy. The CPS planned for partnerships with other donors through trust fund financing for infrastructure, rural services, and public financial management and procurement. World Bank financing was to complement those of other larger donors in PNG, notably Australia and the Asian Development Bank. The World Bank-supported program assumed: i) a macro outlook that was consistent with projected spending on development projects; and ii) maintenance of sociopolitical stability, to underpin a predictable policy framework, institutions, and investment climate. In the event, macro conditions suffered from adverse commodity price shocks after 2014. These reduced government revenues and hence financial capacity to fund projects. PNG’s fragile state and limited capacity were not adequately factored into CPS program design. Selectivity 4. The CPS was not sufficiently selective, given the lessons from the previous PNG CPS. The CPS covered a limited number of MTDS sectors, and the World Bank approved a smaller number of operations during the CPS period (five projects versus eight under the previous CPS) with a larger average project size ($42 million versus $21 million). However, the CPS still had too many objectives (11) for PNG’s limited institutional capacity. Efforts to improve focus of the IDA lending portfolio were undermined by smaller TFs that supported 11 activities with relatively small average project size ($3.1 million) compared to the previous CPS period (five activities averaging $5.8 million, respectively). Alignment 5. The CPS was formulated in 2012. Its objectives were broadly aligned with the 2013 corporate twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The three focus areas sought growth with 1 The Bougainville conflict was a multi-layered armed conflict fought from 1988 to 1998 between PNG and the secessionist forces of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA), and between the BRA and other armed groups in Bougainville, leaving an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 Bougainvilleans dead. Drivers of the conflict included a perceived lack of transparency in the agreements made between the national government and the operator of the massive copper mine that dominates the economy. There was dissatisfaction with benefit-sharing agreements between the large copper mine and local communities, and a belief that the benefits of the mine were going disproportionately to mainland PNG, that migrants were benefiting from the mine more than landowners, and that communities in other parts of the island were excluded from benefits. See CPS, para. 26. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 4 poverty reduction and contained inclusion goals. Accordingly, the first focus area combined investment in infrastructure with access to infrastructure services. The second focus area included goals on smallholder agriculture yields and urban youth training and employment. The third focus area was also inclusive -- local community planning and growth (through debt sustainability). 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 6. This assessment follows the IEG-WBG Shared Approach on Country Engagement and considers the degree to which CPS objectives, as updated in the PLR, were achieved. Focus Area I: Increased and More Gender-Equitable Access to Inclusive Physical and Financial Infrastructure. 7. Focus Area I had five objectives: (i) road rehabilitation; (ii) information and communications technology policy; (iii) financial sector; (iv) renewable energy; and (v) water access. 8. Objective 1: Road rehabilitation. This objective was supported through the FY11 Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation Project II and its FY14 Additional Financing (AF), and the FY12 Building a More Disaster Climate Resilient Transport Sector Trust Fund project. This objective had one outcome and two related indicators. • More and safer roads, benefitting women and girls as well as men and boys: (i) Additional roads rehabilitated in target provinces: Baseline: 0 km (2010); Target: 125 km. [Achieved]. As of September, 2018, 129.3 km of additional roads had been rehabilitated since 2010. (ii) Cumulative number of person-days worked by women as a result of project activities that are not related to routine maintenance activities: Baseline: 0 (2011), 100 (2015), Target: 4,000 (2018). [Achieved]. As of September, 2018, a cumulative total of 24,792 person-days were worked by women. 9. Road rehabilitation is likely to have made roads safer. IEG rates Objective 1 as Achieved. 10. Objective 2: Information and communications technology (ICT) policy. This objective was supported through the FY10 Rural Communications project, the FY16 Connectivity Analysis TA, and the ICT Sector Development TA. This objective had one outcome and two indicators. • Improved penetration of mobile telecommunications services: (i) Number of mobile cellular telephone subscriptions in targeted provinces (per 100 inhabitants): Baselines: 21% (2009), 45% (2015); Target: 55% (2018). [Achieved]. Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions increased to 65% of inhabitants (May 2018). (ii) Increased Internet usage in rural communities targeted by the Rural Communications project: Baseline: 0% (2010), 20% (2015); Target: 30% (2016). [Achieved]. Internet usage increased to 50 percent in 2018. 11. The indicators and results were not articulated in the same units of measure. IEG rates Objective 2 as Achieved. 12. Objective 3: Financial Sector. This objective was supported through the FY11 Small and Medium Enterprise Access to Finance Project and Technical Assistance (TA) on Implementation of a Survey on Financial Competency. IFC provided a Papua New Guinean kina (PKG) 150 million partial guarantee supported by IDA lending of $10 million to provide ‘first loss” coverage. IFC also provided TA support on Simplification of Business Registration for SMEs, Mobile Banking Expansion, Simplification of Tax and Financial Reporting for SMEs and Financial Consumer Protection. This objective had two indicators: CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 5 • PGK 550m increase in credit provided to SMEs in PNG (some institutions do not share data, measurement limited to project banks): Baseline: 0 PKG (2012); Target: 300 PKG (2018). [Partially Achieved]. The latest ISR for the FY11 project reported that the total cumulative committed amount to SMEs under IFC’s Risk Sharing Facility (RSF) reached PGK 114.6 million as of December 2018. • Increased number of women with access to financial institutions in rural areas, either branches or mobile networks: Baseline: Less than 5 percent of Bank South Pacific (BSP)’s total SME lending was for women (2013; Target: 10 percent increase (undated). [Not Verified]. The CLR reports that 14.3% of all loans granted were provided to businesses owned by women only or women as principal partners as of May 2018. The ISR for the FY11 project reports only the total number of loans granted, not the share granted to women. 13. The unit of measure for the second indicator (number of women with access in rural areas) was different from the unit of measure of its baseline and target (percentage of BSP SME lending). The available evidence indicates that additional credit to SMEs was below target while access to financial institutions by women could not be verified. IEG rates Objective 3 as Partially Achieved. 14. Objective 4: Renewable energy. This objective was supported through the FY13 Energy Sector Development Project, and the Access to Renewable Energy and Rural Electrification Study TA. IFC provided support through the IFC Lighting PNG Program. This objective had one outcome and one related indicator. 15. Building blocks in place for a larger renewable energy contribution to increased access to electricity through renewable PPP: Government of PNG taking one medium-to-large renewable energy PPP to financial close: Baseline: 0 (2015); Target: 1 (2018). [Not Achieved]. The CLR notes that the Naoro Brown Hydropower Project, which was to engage a developer through a PPP and underpinned this objective, was delayed in implementation. There was no progress on this indicator. 16. IEG rates Objective 4 as Not Achieved. 17. Objective 5: Water access. This objective was supported through the FY18 Water Supply and Sanitation Development Project (FY18-24,) and the FY14 Water and Sanitation TA. This objective had one outcome: • Improved access to water: (i) Number of people in urban areas provided with access to improved water sources under the Bank: Baseline: 0 (2016), Target: 1,000 (2018). [Not Achieved]. The CLR notes that the Water Supply and Sanitation Development Project, which supported this objective, was delayed in implementation. 18. IEG rates Objective 5 as Not Achieved. 19. IEG rates Focus Area I as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Of the five objectives, two objectives were Achieved, one was Partially Achieved, and two were Not Achieved. There was good progress on road rehabilitation and on penetration of telecommunication services and modest progress on SME access to credit. Progress on inclusion covered only roads and could not be verified for SME credit. There was no progress on access to renewable energy and water. Focus Area II: Gender-equitable improvements in lives and livelihoods. 20. Focus Area II had three objectives: (i) agriculture and rural development; (ii) youth development; and (iii) business-enabling development. As above, these are not articulated as objectives but rather as policy areas. 21. Objective 6: Agriculture and Rural development. This objective was supported through the FY10 Productive Partnerships in Agriculture Project and its FY14 AF, and the FY11 Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaption Program in Agriculture. ASA support included the Fruit of Her Labor, PNG Agriculture Notes, El Niño Response Trust Fund for PNG, and World Bank-DFAT CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 6 Gender in Agriculture Research Trust Fund (FY17-18). IFC provided support through the Tininga TA project (completed July 2018). This objective had two outcomes and four related indicators. • Improvements in yields of smallholder coffee, cocoa and oil palm farmers: (i) Rural roads rehabilitated and maintained in project areas, per Maintenance Agreements: Baseline: 0.7 km (2015); Target: 50 km (2018). [Partially Achieved]. 19.8 miles were rehabilitated and maintained as of October 2018. (ii) Increase in average cocoa yields for project participants: Baseline: 169 kg/ha (2011); Target: 575 kg/ha (2018). [Achieved]. Yields increased to 728 kg/ha by March 2018. (iii) Increase in average coffee yields for project participants: Baseline: 382 kg/ha (2011); Target: 575 kg/ha (2018). [Mostly Achieved]. Yields increased to 566 kg/ha. At the PLR stage, the target on oil palm yields was dropped but the results indicator was not adjusted accordingly. The related project was closed during the CPS period. The indicator should not have been dropped because the project was active during the CPS. The oil palm yield target was replaced by a roads target which does not measure the outcome of improvements in yields. IEG rates this outcome as Mostly Achieved. • Improved smallholder sustainability and resilience: (i) Cumulative number of beneficiaries of Productive Partnerships in Agriculture Project (PPAP), including women: Baseline: 0 (2010), 33,967 total, of which 11,850 women (2015); Target: 60,000, of which 24,000 women (2018). [Achieved]. Total beneficiaries increased to 67,340, as of March 2018. Women beneficiaries increased to 24,852. However, this indicator does not directly measure sustainability or resilience, although increased returns to beneficiaries of the PPAP could contribute to sustainability. However, the result is not clearly articulated, and the indicator does not measure it directly. IEG rates this outcome as Mostly Achieved. 22. On balance, IEG rates Objective 6 as Mostly Achieved. 23. Objective 7: Youth development. This objective was supported through the FY11 Urban Youth Employment Project (UYEP) and its FY16 AF, the FY16 Reading Education Project, and the FY11 Flexible and Open Distance Education Project. This objective had one outcome and three related indicators. • Youth in urban areas have more access to training and job opportunities: (i) Days of workfare completed by youth beneficiaries over the course of Urban Youth Employment Project (UYEP): Baseline: 340,000 total cumulative (2015); Target: 660,000 total cumulative (2018). [Achieved]. 814,273 days of workfare were completed by youth over the course of the project, as of March 2018. This indicator measures amount of training, not access to it. (ii) Share of on-the-job graduates who have an offer of a paid job as they leave UYEP: Baseline: 0 (2011); 39% (June 2015); Target: 30% (2018). [Achieved]. The share of on-the- job graduates who have an offer of a paid job as they leave UYEP reached 41%, as of March 2018. (iii) Share of female participants graduating from each component of UYEP (Basic Life Skills Training, Youth Job Corps, Pre-Employment Training, and On-the-Job Training): Baseline: 40% (2015); Target: 40% (2018). [Achieved]. The share of women graduating from each component of UYEP reached 41% as of March 2018. As an average of graduation rates from different activities, the indicator is vague and difficult to interpret. 24. Indicators reflect increased access to youth training and job opportunities specific to project area (Port Moresby, PNG’s capital city). IEG rates Objective 7 as Achieved. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 7 25. Objective 8: Business Enabling Environment. IFC supported this objective through its PNG Regulatory Simplification and Investment Policy and the Promotion Project and the Business Coalition for Women and Agribusiness TA. This objective had three outcomes and three results indicators. • More efficient opening/operation/ closing of businesses in PNG: (i) Shorter number of days in Doing Business. Baseline: 35 days (2012); Target: 10 days (2016). [Partially Achieved]. According to Doing Business, which uses the old methodology, the number of days needed to start a business decreased from 52 days (2012) to 41 days (2017), a lower decline (11 days) than the 25 days from the PLR 2012 baseline (35) to the PLR 2016 target (10).This indicator is imprecise, for it does not specify what the shorter number of days refers to. [Partially Achieved]. (ii) 10% increase in annual number of women-owned businesses who “graduate” to formal status with registered businesses. Baseline: [to be generated by SME Survey sex- disaggregated “count” using IPA 2 data in early 2013; IFC program with IPA will use IPA’s data to track]: Target: 10% increase (2016). [Not Verified]. The number of formal SMEs increased from 45,000 to 50,000 between January 2013 and December 2017 (an 11% increase). However, disaggregated data for SMEs owned by women is not available. The CLR did not provide the baseline. The Investment Promotion Authority, which was envisaged to provide the data, does not report on it. (iii) 20% increase in number of firms filing tax returns: Baseline: 8,400 (2014); Target: 10,000 (2018). [Not Verified]. The CLR reports that income tax return filings decreased from 8,400 in 2014 to 8,088 in 2015 and 7,786 in 2016. IEG could not verify the CLR information. 26. The first indicator reflects increased efficiency in starting a business, albeit below target. This is a relatively minor aspect of the business environment and no evidence is provided to suggest that the number of days to register a business was a particularly binding constraint to the business environment in PNG. There is no evidence on efficiency in the operation and closing of a business. IEG rates Objective 8 as Partially Achieved. 27. Focus Area II is rated as Moderately Satisfactory. One objective was Achieved, one Mostly Achieved, and one Partially Achieved. There was good progress on improving agricultural smallholder yields, possibly contributing to farmer returns, but with no indication of progress on resilience or sustainability. There was good progress on youth training and employment. However, there was little or no progress on improving the efficiency of opening/operation/closing of businesses, as the indicator covers only opening of businesses, not operation or closing. Focus Area III: Increasingly prudent management of revenues and benefits. 28. Focus Area III had three objectives: (i) extractives sector; (ii) rural service delivery; (iii) macroeconomic management. 29. Objective 9: Extractives sector. This objective was supported through the FY15 Mining TA Project; the FY16 Recipient-Executed SPF on family and sexual violence in extractive industries communities; and the FY13 Japan Social Development Fund (JSDF) Social and Economic Empowerment for Women in Mining and Petroleum Areas. ASA included Strengthening CSO Participation in EITI completed February 2018. This objective had two outcomes and related indicators. • Better governance and accountability in oil/gas/mining revenues: i) Status in EITI process: Baselines: No formal commitment, Step 0 (2012); Candidate status, Step 2 (2016); Target: PNG achieves compliance with requirements of the EITI Standard, Step 3 (2018). [Partially Achieved]. PNG’s EITI status improved from “no formal commitment” to candidate status (Step 2, 2016). PNG has not achieved compliance with 2 Investment Promotion Authority. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 8 requirements of the EITI Standard (Step 3). The indicator is an insufficient measure of governance or accountability, as candidacy, achieved in 2014, measures only completion of the EITI sign-up process. However, EITI’s first validation (2018) rates PNG’s overall progress as meaningful, indicating that progress on the various EITI requirements (e.g., civil society engagement) ranged from Inadequate to Satisfactory. PNG Resource Governance Index, calculated by the Natural Resource Governance Institute, ranked 46th among 89 countries in 2017. • More equal involvement of women in community benefits from oil/gas/mining. i) Rights for women in project agreements: Baseline: 1 (2008); Target: 3 (2016). [Not Achieved]. The CLR notes that Bank’s project in support of this objective experienced significant implementation challenges and was cancelled. Indicator is poorly defined, as its units are heterogeneous and thus cannot be added. IEG rates this outcome as Not Achieved. 30. Achievements included reaching EITI candidacy status and progress on various EITI requirements. There was no progress on inclusion of women. IEG rates Objective 9 as Partially Achieved. 31. Objective 10: Rural service delivery. This objective was supported through the FY14 Rural Service Delivery and Local Governance Project (RSDLGP), the FY17 Rural Service Delivery Project, and the FY11 Inclusive Development in Bougainville Project (State and Peace-Building Fund) and its FY15 AF. ASA support included a Resource Distribution and Benefit Sharing Research ASA. This objective had one outcome and two related indicators. • Inclusive bottom-up planning in three provinces promotes increased local decision making: (i) Number of community development subprojects implemented through community participation: Baseline: 0 (2016); Target: 100 (30 in Central and Western provinces, 70 in Bougainville) (2018). [Achieved]. 58 of the 73 projects in the Central and Western provinces were completed (2017); 95 subprojects were completed (2018) in Bougainville. (ii) Number of persons, including women, benefitting from community development subprojects: Baseline: 0 (2016); Target: 130,000 (50,000 in Central and Western Provinces and 80,000 in Bougainville), of which 50% women (2018). [Partially Achieved]. A total of 49,285 people benefited in the Central and Western provinces (45 percent women); and a total of 51,642 people (48 percent women) benefited in Bougainville. 32. Implementation through community participation provides evidence of both inclusiveness and local decision making. The projects supporting this objective provided grants to finance community- identified projects. IEG rates Objective 10 as Mostly Achieved. 33. Objective 11: Macroeconomic management. This objective was supported through ASA, including an Analysis of Fiscal Policy in PNG, a Debt Management Performance Assessment, a WB- IMF TA on Debt Sustainability and Medium-Term Debt Strategy; and an informal WB TA on operationalizing fiscal rules for PNG. This objective had one outcome and a related indicator. • More robust debt sustainability framework. (i) Integration of WBG-IMF debt sustainability framework (DSA) into the medium-term debt strategy (MTDS) document. Target (2018): WBG-IMF debt sustainability framework has been incorporated into the government’s medium-term debt strategy document (2018–22). [Not Achieved]. PNG used the 2016 debt scenarios that it developed with the IMF as an input into its current debt strategy, not the 2017 or 2018 updates, and with no clarity as to how those scenarios shaped the MTDS. Accordingly, this indicator is not particularly meaningful, and the target was not met in 2018. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 9 34. The indicator measures MTDS reference to the 2016 DSA, not the robustness of the debt sustainability framework. There is no indication of more robustness. IEG rates the outcome above and Objective 11 as Not Achieved. 35. Focus Area III is rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory. One objective was Mostly Achieved, one Partially Achieved, and one Not Verified. Good progress was achieved on rural service delivery; and modest progress on extractives management. Progress on the debt sustainability framework was not achieved. 36. IEG rates the CPS development outcome as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Of the 11 objectives, three were Achieved, two were Mostly Achieved, three were Partially Achieved, and three were Not Achieved. Focus Area I (infrastructure) was rated Moderately Unsatisfactory. There was good progress on road rehabilitation and telecommunications services, modest progress on SME access to credit, and no progress on access to renewable energy or water. Focus Area II (lives and livelihoods) was rated Moderately Satisfactory. There was good progress on improving agricultural smallholder yields, with possible impacts on farmer returns and sustainability; good progress on youth training and employment; and modest progress on improving the efficiency of opening/operation/ closing of businesses. Focus Area III (management of revenues and benefits) was rated Moderately Unsatisfactory. Good progress was achieved on inclusive planning and local decision making on rural services, modest progress on extractives management, and no progress on the robustness of the debt sustainability. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Increased and More Gender- Equitable Access to Inclusive Physical and Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Financial Infrastructure. Objective 1: Road rehabilitation. Achieved Achieved Objective 2: Information and communications Achieved Achieved technology policy. Objective 3: Financial Sector. Achieved Partially Achieved Objective 4: Renewable energy. Not Achieved Not Achieved Objective 5: Water access. Not Achieved Not Achieved Focus Area II: Gender-equitable improvements in Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory lives and livelihoods. Objective 6: Agriculture and rural development. Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective 7: Youth development. Achieved Achieved Objective 8: Business-enabling development. Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved Focus Area II: Increasingly prudent management Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory of revenues and benefits. Objective 9: Extractives sector. Partially Achieved Partially Achieved Objective 10: Rural service delivery. Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective 11: Macroeconomic management. Achieved Not Achieved 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 37. At the beginning of the CPS period, World Bank total commitments were $170 million, with eight IPF operations. During the CPS period, total new commitments were $292 million, below the planned CPS ($388 million) and PLR $554 million). Lower lending reflected a planned but delayed hydroelectricity project. The new lending portfolio consisted of four planned operations, one unplanned emergency project (in response to rising tuberculosis rates), and Additional Financing (AF) for two projects under the pre-existing portfolio The five new projects covered new areas of engagement, focusing on energy, rural services, tourism, water/sanitation, and health. The new CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 10 health project was an emergency operation that responded to rising tuberculosis rates. The two AF operations built on two pre-existing projects on agriculture and transport. In addition, the pre-existing portfolio covered projects in agriculture, telecommunications, education, youth, and finance. New TFs supported 11 activities which were smaller on average, compared to the pre-existing TF portfolio. New TF provided AF for the UYEP, the PPAP, and the Inclusive Development in Post- Conflict Bougainville TF project. 38. During the CPS period, PNG’s portfolio at exit performed less well compared to EAP and Bank-wide averages. Of the five closed projects reviewed by IEG, one was rated Moderately Unsatisfactory, one Unsatisfactory and three were rated Moderately Satisfactory (MS). In terms of the share of projects rated MS or better, PNG’s average (60 percent) was below the averages for EAP (79 percent) and the Bank (74 percent). In terms share of commitments, PNG had a lower share of projects rated MS or better (58 percent), compared to the averages for EAP (87 percent) and Bank- wide (84 percent). In the two projects that were rated below MS (on Distance Education and Smallholder Agriculture), poor outcomes can be partly traced to MU ratings for quality-at-entry. Four of the five closed projects had significant to high risks to development outcomes (RDO). The overall high RDO rating for PNG’s portfolio at exit reflects the two operations with outcome ratings below MS. These also had significant or high risks that outcomes would not be sustained in the future. 39. PNG’s active Bank portfolio has performed poorly, compared to the EAP-FCS, and Bank- FCS averages. PNG had 43 percent of its projects at risk (numbers), covering 40 percent of commitments. Comparable figures for EAP-FCS were 28 percent and 37 percent, respectively; and for the World Bank-FCS were 37 percent and 38 percent, respectively. The higher riskiness of the active portfolio reflects implementation challenges such as weak capacity for financial and contract management, auditing, and safeguards in central or implementing agencies; and insufficient counterpart funding. These have been long-standing portfolio problems in PNG that the Bank had identified in previous strategies and portfolio reviews. The CPS outlined mitigation measures to implementation risks and the CLR notes that the Bank is addressing implementation challenges by focusing on identifying remedial actions on problem projects, supporting implementing agencies and strengthening understanding of World Bank procedures among government counterparts. However, these initiatives have not yet been reflected in portfolio performance. 40. During the CPS period, IFC had total net commitment of $85.3 million for its core business of long-term loan and equity investments. The main sector where IFC engaged was the financial sector with $59.8 million (70.1%). IFC had two transactions with its key regional banking client. These loans financed the expansion of SME lending by the IFC client bank. For its short-term guarantee under its Global Trade Finance Program, IFC had a small average exposure of $2.4 million. 41. During the review period, IEG validated two Expanded Project Supervision Reports (XPSRs) of IFC investment project through EvNotes. IEG assigned a development outcome rating of Mostly Successful for one project and Unsuccessful for another project. IFC supported successfully the expansion of mobile phone service to previously unserved areas including rural areas. However IFC’s investment did not lead to increased competition in the sector as envisaged. For a manufacturing project, it failed to achieve many project objectives including import substitution on manufactured products and increased employment. 42. MIGA did not have exposure in PNG during the review period. Advisory Services and Analytics products (ASA) 43. The CPS planned 21 ASA tasks and delivered 22, comprising six Economic Sector Work (ESW) and 16 Technical Assistance (TA) outputs. ASA covered macro-fiscal, debt management, financial sector, infrastructure, and human development topics that broadly supported CPS objectives. Objective 11 (Macroeconomic Management) was underpinned by ASA, including a joint Bank-IMF FY16 Debt Management Performance Assessment and informal TA on fiscal rules. Major ESW covered education and health. TA outputs addressed access to finance, bank supervision, social protection, infrastructure, financial sector, and health sector issues. With some exceptions CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 11 (e.g., the 2016 DeMPA, which is confidential), ASA reports are available in the Bank’s Open Knowledge repository. 44. During the review period, IFC approved 19 new AS projects amounting to $40.1 million. Many of these were under a regional project for the Pacific Islands, which included PNG. IFC sought to support improving investment climate, upgrading the electronic payments system, improving economic empowerment of women, and developing off-grid solar lighting/phone charging solutions to rural communities. One of the AS project’s involved an assessment of gender strengths and gaps by using the Economic Dividends for Gender Equality (EDGE), a global diagnostic and certification tool. IFC leveraged its global relationships to bring in new players to the off-grid lighting and phone charging market. 45. IEG validated one Project Completion Reports (PCRs) of an AS project during the review period and assigned an Unsuccessful rating for Development Effectiveness. Although the IFC project helped improve some doing business indicators, it had major shortcomings in terms of the goal of investment and employment generation. Results Framework 46. CPS objectives were not presented as program objectives, but rather as policy or thematic areas. These policy areas were broadly congruent with development constraints addressed in government programs. The results framework had other significant shortcomings. First, while CPS objectives included outcomes (except for Objective 3), the scope of some outcomes (e.g., Youth access to training and job opportunities in urban areas, under Objective 7) was considerably broader than the scope of their associated indicators or well beyond what could be expected from limited interventions (e.g., training under the UYEP, which covered a fraction of urban youth in the capital city). Second, there were shortcomings in the measurability of some indicators, a lack of clarity in the units for measurement, and disconnect between several indicators and their baselines and targets in terms of unit of measure. For example, the indicator on percentage increase in women-owned businesses who “graduate” to formal status did not have baseline data; and the indicator on women’s access to credit was inconsistently defined (indicator defined as numbers of women with access to finance in rural areas; while baseline defined as the share of women in a bank’s SME lending). Some indicators (notably on gender) were not measured. 47. At the PLR stage, adjustments further weakened the results framework. While some adjustments were appropriate (alignment of indicators with the restructured UYEP), others were not (e.g., dropping an indicator on yields that referred to a project that closed during the CPS period, and replacing it by an indicator unrelated to improvements in yields). A new objective (objective 5) supported by an FY17 operation was expected to deliver results in 2018, which did not materialize. In light of PNG’s track record of implementation, this change was overly optimistic. The scope of the debt sustainability objective was unclear and was difficult to measure with the given indicator. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 48. Coordination was strong with key development partners in PNG. The World Bank coordinated with the IMF through a joint Debt Sustainability Assessments, Joint FY18 DeMPA, and to provide advice on macroeconomic policy. The World Bank also collaborated with Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), which provided funding for IFC activities and several Bank projects. In addition, it collaborated with the International Fund for Agricultural Development and the European Union through the Productive Partnerships in Agriculture Project, in the form of parallel financing and additional financing, respectively. The CLR also noted a partnership with the district government (Gazelle) to complete road investments that reduced transport costs to coffee growers; and with the Bank of South Pacific on the UYEP. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 49. During the CPS period, five closed and validated projects (in agriculture, energy and extractives, education and governance) triggered environmental and social safeguards. The CLR reports that compliance with safeguards requirements was problematic due to challenges related CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 12 to weak local capacity. The project ICRs and ICRRs confirm these operational challenges, including poor staffing, improper management of environmental and social impacts, and internal conflict in the communities (in agriculture). In energy and extractives, environmental and social assessments were problematic. 50. The Smallholder Agriculture Development project (P079140, FY08) which was active during the early part of the CPS period and closed in FY14, had been subject to an Inspection Panel investigation since FY10. Noncompliance claims were associated with the poor application of Bank policies and procedures. The Inspection Panel reported failures in consultations, information disclosure; and issues of broader community support, livelihoods and institutional sustainability. The case was closed in 2014 with the final report on the implementation of the management’s action plan, where all the noncompliance issues were reported to have been successfully mitigated. 51. A total of four complaints related to projects in the education, agriculture and transport sectors were reported to INT. The complaints concerned mainly alleged fraud. None were converted to cases. Ownership and Flexibility 52. Ownership of the CPS program benefited from alignment with the government’s MTDPs and consultations with a wide range of stakeholders. Nevertheless, congruence with MTDP objectives and stakeholder views did not suffice to overcome implementation delays in some areas. Implementation was weak in some areas, for example on energy and water, where needed actions were slow to come; Implementation was somewhat better in other areas, extractives for example, where actions moved in the right direction but remained insufficient. Implementation was strong in a few areas: e.g., on youth development. There was some flexibility in adjusting the CPS program in response to country developments, particularly through an emergency operation (FY17, after the PLR) in response to rising tuberculosis rates. WBG Internal Cooperation 53. The CPS sought an integrated Bank-IFC approach; however, actual joint work and coordination were limited. The two institutions cooperated and worked in parallel on a pre-existing IFC project that was implemented jointly with the pre-existing Bank SME Access to Finance project; and under the ongoing Bank’s FY17 Tourism project. Otherwise, IFC operations provided support on: i) the business environment, complementing access to finance objectives; ii) pre-existing investments in finance, an area covered under the CPS results framework, and in manufacturing; and iii) new investments in finance, oil and gas, and real estate, although the latter two were not linked to or integrated with CPS objectives. Risk Identification and Mitigation 54. The WBG identified five risk areas: economic shocks, sociopolitical turbulence, policy and governance gaps, inadequate capacity, and disasters. It envisaged mitigation measures on the specific risks. For example, a Country Procurement Assessment review was planned to strengthen procurement performance. The PLR assessed the average overall risk as Substantial, albeit High on political, macroeconomic and capacity risks. During CPS implementation, the CLR notes that the World Bank increased presence in PNG to address policy and implementation issues, although weak interagency coordination and cumbersome procurement continued to impact implementation. The CLR also notes that the World Bank, in coordination with the IMF, provided advice on macroeconomic issues, notably on debt sustainability and management. Macroeconomic risks materialized as commodity prices dropped after 2014. Overall Assessment and Rating 55. IEG rates WBG performance as Fair, as shortcomings in design and implementation undermined achievements in several areas. The CPS addressed well-identified development challenges, benefited from alignment with government plans and consultation with multiple stakeholders, and was largely consistent with the twin corporate goals. It envisaged the use of CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 13 appropriate instruments (IPF and ASA) and planned on an integrated Bank-IFC joint approach to achieve CPS objectives. However, the CPS was not selective enough for PNG’s limited capacity, with three focus areas and 11 objectives, and a dispersed TF portfolio. The results framework had major shortcomings, with CPS objectives articulated as broad themes, while the scope of some planned interventions and related indicators was limited. Several indicators were not well defined. The CPS identified relevant risks and outlined mitigation measures covering economic shocks, sociopolitical turbulence, policy and governance gaps, inadequate capacity, and disasters although mitigation measures, particularly in addressing capacity constraints fell short. Planned ASA broadly supported CPS objectives. 56. Implementation was mixed. Bank lending of $292 million was below PLR plans and IFC investments of $89 million were below planned CPS volumes of $50 million per year. There were implementation delays (energy, water). Actual Bank-IFC collaboration was less integrated than envisaged. ASA complemented financing in most areas. The WBG coordinated well with DFAT and EU to obtain additional funding and with the IMF on advice on macroeconomic issues. The PLR retained the CPS objectives, which remained formulated as broad thematic areas and thus missed an opportunity to clarify and align them with the more limited scope of interventions. The PLR weakened the results framework with a new objective supported by an FY17 water and sanitation operation that was unlikely to deliver results within the CPS period. The active and closed portfolio did not perform well, compared to EAP-FCS, and Bank-FCS averages. IEG evaluations of completed projects suggest that some of the portfolio problems can be traced to low quality-at-entry. No Inspection Panel investigation was recorded during the CPS. None of the four complaints to INT were converted to cases. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 57. The CLR is an adequate assessment of CPS development outcomes and WBG performance but with several major shortcomings, particularly with respect to the assessment of the results indicators. It presents evidence on the extent to which some outcomes were achieved, as well as details on WBG’s support and contribution. It provides an extensive discussion of the CPS alignment with the WBG’s corporate goals and its lessons provides thoughtful advice. The CLR should have discussed in more depth the adequacy of the results framework, particularly on the formulation of CPS objectives. In some areas (e.g., youth development, extractives sector, and macroeconomic management), the CLR should have discussed achievements at more length. The CLR should have covered the reasons why portfolio management efforts failed to improve portfolio performance. 8. Findings and Lessons 58. The CLR provides three key lessons with which IEG agrees. First, portfolio improvements require sustained engagement by all project teams, implementing agencies, and the Government, as well as stronger interagency coordination. Second, PNG’s institutional and social fragility places a premium on understanding political economy factors with a bearing on projects, and on monitoring and ensuring awareness of grievance redress mechanisms. Third, partnerships can help expand ASA, increase the WBG’s impact, and test new ideas. 59. IEG adds the following lessons: • CPS objectives will need to be appropriately defined and delimited to capture what Bank Group interventions can achieve. During the CPS, alignment between objectives and interventions was weak in some areas, as objectives were broad and imprecise (e.g., “Financial Sector”) and interventions often limited in scope (e.g., on access to finance). Bank Group strategies in PNG need to define objectives that its interventions can achieve and monitor achievements with robust indicators. • Achievement of development objectives often requires more than one CPS period. In the case of PNG, efforts to achieve EITI candidacy, which the previous CAS supported, CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 14 began to bear fruit only during this CPS and will require continued attention in upcoming strategies. • To strengthen coordination across the Bank Group, it is important to identify early those opportunities where the Bank, IFC and MIGA can work together. Although the CPS envisaged an integrated approach, actual joint work was limited, and it did not articulate how it would be implemented. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 15 Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Papua New Guinea Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 ($, millions) Annex Table 3: Advisory Services and Analytics Work for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 Annex Table 4: Papua New Guinea Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY13-FY18 ($, millions) Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 ($, millions) Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Papua New Guinea and Comparators, FY13-FY18 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Papua New Guinea and Comparators, FY13-FY18 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursements and Charges for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 ($, millions) Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance for Papua New Guinea ($, millions) Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Papua New Guinea Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Papua New Guinea ($, million) Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Papua New Guinea, 2013-2018 ($, million) Annex Table 14: List of Net Commitment Activity in Papua New Guinea, 2013-2018 ($, million) Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Projects Active in Papua New Guinea, 2013-2018 15 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 17 Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Papua New Guinea CAS FY13-FY18: Focus Area I: Increased and More Gender-Equitable Actual Results IEG Comments Access to Inclusive Physical and Financial Infrastructure 1. CPS Objective: Road Rehabilitation Indicator 1: More and safer roads, The Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation Before the PLR the Road benefitting women and girls as well Project II (P119471, FY11) and additional Objective and related as men and boys, as measured by: financing (P145120, FY14), supported this indicators were: “More and Indicator. The latest ISR: S (November 2018) safer roads, benefitting reports the following progress: women and girls as well as (a) Additional roads rehabbed in men and boys, measured target provinces (a) 129.3 km of roads rehabilitated as of by Baseline: 0 (2010) September 2018. − Additional roads Target: 125 km (2018) rehabbed in target Achieved provinces (baseline is 0, (b) Cumulative number of person- target is 150km) days worked by women as a result of (b) 24,792 person-days worked by women as − Number of gender pilots project activities that are not related a result of project activities that are not related underway in Department of to routine maintenance activities to routine maintenance activities, as of Works roads portfolio Baseline: 0 (2011); 2,100 (2015) September 2018. (baseline is 0, target is 1) Target: 4,000 (2018) Achieved 2. CPS Objective: Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Policy Indicator 1: Improved penetration of The Rural Communications Project (P107782, Before the PLR the ICT mobile telecommunications FY10) supported this indicator. The latest ISR: Objectives were: services, as measured by the S (June 2018) reports that mobile cellular - Increased coverage of Major number of mobile cellular telephone subscriptions increased from targeted underserved rural Outcome telephone subscriptions in 31/100 or 31% of inhabitants (December areas by mobile networks Measures targeted provinces (per 100 2009) to 65/100 or 65% of inhabitants (May and/or broadband (baseline inhabitants): 2018). 2%, target 14%) Baseline: 21% (2009); 45% (2015) - Increased use of ICT for Target: 55% (2018) Achieved transparency/accountability through at least one pilot Indicator 2: Increased Internet The latest ISR: S (June 2018) of project approved for scale-up in usage in rural communities P107782 reports that internet usage in rural monitoring service delivery targeted by the Rural district centers increased from 0% (June (baseline is 0, target is 1) Communications project 2010) to 50% (May 2018). Baseline: 0% (2010); 20% (2015) The Connectivity Analysis Target: 30% (2016) Achieved (P155014, FY16, see report) also supported this indicator. 3. CPS Objective: Financial Sector Indicator 1: PGK 550m increase in The Small and Medium Enterprise Access to At PLR, the following credit provided to SMEs in PNG Finance Project (P120707, FY11), supported indicator was taken out: (some institutions do not share this indicator. 20% increase in number of data, measurement limited to The CLR reports that an amount of PGK 492 formal sector SMEs project banks) million was committed by Bank South Pacific registered Baseline: 0 PGK (2012) under the Risk Share Facility. IEG could not Target: 300m PGK (2018) validate this information. The latest ISR: MU (December 2018) reports that PGK 114.60 million were committed to SMEs as of September 2017. Partially Achieved 17 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 18 CAS FY13-FY18: Focus Area I: Increased and More Gender-Equitable Actual Results IEG Comments Access to Inclusive Physical and Financial Infrastructure Indicator 2: Increased number of The latest ISR: MU (December 2018) of There is a disconnect women with access to financial project P120707 reports that 262 loans were between the indicator and institutions in rural areas, either granted to businesses opened by women and its baseline/target as branches or mobile networks women as principal partners, out of a total of currently defined. While the Baseline: Less than 5% of BSP’s total 1,828 loans granted, as of September 2017 or indicator specifies an SME lending was for women (2013) 14.3% of all loans (June 2018 ISR: MU). increase in the number of Target: 10% increase However, IEG could not validate the women with access to information financial institutions, the baseline and target refers Not Verified to an increase in the share of women in BSP’s portfolio which may or may not result in an increase in the absolute number of women with access depending on the growth of BSP’s loan portfolio. 4. CPS Objective: Renewable Energy Indicator 1: Building blocks in place The Energy Sector Development Project Before the PLR the original for a larger renewable energy (P101578, FY13) supported this indicator. The indicator was: contribution to increased access to latest ISR: MU (December 2018) reports no Larger renewable energy electricity through renewable PPP, progress for the indicator related to the contribution to increased as measured by the GoPNG taking financing structure for the PPP, Naoro Brown access to electricity through one medium-to-large renewable Hydropower Project, approved by the renewable PPP (baseline is energy PPP to financial close government, as of November 2018. 12.4% of households with Baseline: 0 (2015) The CLR reports that a cabinet paper on a access to electricity, Target: 1 (2018) proposed financial structure was prepared, 215MW of national supply triggering the next phase of the project. comes from renewables; target is Not Achieved 20% HH with access and 330MW from renewables) 5. CPS Objective: Water access Indicator 1: Improved access to The Water Supply and Sanitation Objective and Indicator water, as measured by the number Development Project (P155087, FY17) added at PLR stage. of people in urban areas provided supports this objective. The latest ISR: MS with access to improved water (December 2018) reports no progress in As reported in the CLR, the sources under the project relation to the number of people in urban areas project became effective in Baseline: 0 (2016) provided with access to improved water July 2017 and the water Target: 1,000 (2018) sources under the project., infrastructure contracts are in the process of being Not Achieved procured. 18 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 19 CAS FY13-FY18: Focus Area II: Gender-Equitable Improvements in Actual Results IEG Comments Lives and Livelihoods 6. CPS Objective: Agriculture and Rural Development Indicator 1: Improvements in The Productive Partnerships in Agriculture Sub-indicator (a) for rural yields of smallholder coffee, project (P110959, FY10) and its additional roads was added at PLR. cocoa and oil palm farmers, as financing (P146003, FY14) supported this measured by: indicator. The latest ISR: MS (February 2019) At PLR, the following sub- reported the following results: indicator was taken out: Increase in average oil (a) Rural roads rehabilitated and (a) 19.8 km of rural roads were rehabilitated palm yields from 21 maintained in project areas, per and maintained in project areas, per tons/hectare to 24 in Maintenance Agreements Maintenance Agreements, as of October 2018. project areas and Baseline: 0.7 km (2015) Partially Achieved baselines/targets for sub- Target: 50 km (2018) indicators (b)and (c) were (b) Cocoa yield among project beneficiaries changed from: (b) Increase in average cocoa increased from 169kg/ha to 728 kg/ha between - Indicator (b): yields from yields for project participants June 2011 and October 2018. 300kg/ha to 600 Baseline: 169kg/ha (2011) Achieved for project participants Target: 575 kg/ha (2018) - Indicator (c): Increase in (c) Coffee yield among project beneficiaries average coffee yields from (c) Increase in average coffee increased from 382kg/ha to 566 kg/ha between 500kg/ha to 800 yields for project participants June 2011 and October 2018. Baseline: 382 kg/ha (2011) Mostly Achieved Target: 575 kg/ha (2018) Major Indicator 2: Improved smallholder The Productive Partnerships in Agriculture Before the PLR the sub- Outcome sustainability and project – PPAP (P110959, FY10) and its indicators were: Measures resilience, as measured by: additional financing (P146003, FY14) − 24,000 cocoa and coffee supported this indicator. The latest ISR: MS farmers adopt improved (a) Cumulative number of (February 2019) reported the following results: farming practices beneficiaries of Productive − 1,500 oil palm growers Partnerships in Agriculture (a) 67,340 project beneficiaries under the trained in sustainable Project (PPAP), including women PPAP, including 24,852 women, as of June production practices Baseline: 0 (2010); 33,967 total, of 2018. which 11,850 women (2015) Achieved At PLR stage the following Target: 60,000, of which 24,000 indicator was taken out: women (2018) (b) The CLR reports that this indicator was Increased support to dropped at PLR stage and mistakenly included women farmers measured (b) Training of oil palm growers in in the revised CPS results matrix. The latest by number of partnerships sustainable production practices ISR: MS of project P110959 does not monitor with their explicit Baseline: 0 (2012) this indicator. participation (baseline is 0, Target: 1,500 cumulative (2016) target is 20 out of 35) There is a disconnect between indicator (a) and the CPS objective as currently defined. The number of beneficiaries does not directly measure improvements in smallholder sustainability and resilience. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 20 CAS FY13-FY18: Focus Area II: Gender-Equitable Improvements in Actual Results IEG Comments Lives and Livelihoods The latest ISR of P110959 also reports that there were 11,586 ha. of cocoa farms with improved planting material and applied improved practices. There was also 3,746 ha. of cocoa planted with diversified crops. Coffee farms also applied improved management services on 18,321 ha. of farmland. 19.8 kms of rural roads were also rehabilitated to improve market access. Finally, 6 new policy measures have been adopted to support institutional strengthening and industry coordination. 7. CPS Objective: Youth Development Indicator 1: Youth in urban areas The Urban Youth Employment Project – UYEP Before the PLR the sub- have more access to training ((P114042, FY11) and its additional financing indicators were: and job opportunities, as (P154412, FY16), supported this project. The − At least 300,000 labor- measured by: latest ISR: S (December 2018) reports that: days done by beneficiaries (baseline is 0) (a) Days of workfare completed by (a) 814.273 days of workfare were completed − At least 50% of On-the- youth beneficiaries over the course by youth over the course of the project, as of Job beneficiaries enjoy of Urban Youth Employment September 2018. 20% increase in incomes Project (UYEP) (baseline being Baseline: 340,000 total cumulative Achieved established by Intake (2015) Surveys) Target: 660,000 total cumulative (2018) The CLR reports an older (b) the share of on-the-job graduates who have data: 46% according to a (b) Share of on-the-job graduates an offer of a paid job as they leave UYEP 2016 graduation survey who have an offer of a paid job as reached 41%, as of September 2018, (latest ISR: S December they leave UYEP according to a 2017 follow-up survey 2018). Baseline: 0 (2011); 39% (June Achieved 2015) Target: 30% (2018) (c) the share of women graduating from each (c) Share of female participants component of UYEP reached 41% as of graduating from each component September 2018. of UYEP (Basic Life Skills Training, Achieved Youth Job Corps, Pre-Employment Training, and On-the-Job Training) Baseline: 40% (2015) Target: 40% (2018) CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 21 CAS FY13-FY18: Focus Area II: Gender-Equitable Improvements in Actual Results IEG Comments Lives and Livelihoods 8. CPS Objective: Business-enabling environment Indicator 1: More efficient The Small and Medium Enterprise Access to Before the PLR, the opening/operation/closing of Finance Project (P120707, FY11), supported baseline/target for this businesses in PNG, as this indicator. The latest ISR: MU (December indicator were: measured by shorter number of 2018) does not monitor this Indicator. baseline in 2012 is 51; days in Doing Business Data from Doing Business indicates that the target for 2016 is 45 Baseline: 35 (2012) number of days needed to start a business Target: 10 (2016) decreased from 51 (2012) to 41 (2017). Papua New Guinea’s The CLR reports that the PLR targets were overall ranking in Doing revised due to an assumed change in Business decreased from methodology in the Doing Business Survey. 101/183 to 119/190 However, the assumed change in methodology between 2012 and 2017. did not materialize. Distance to Frontier scores, however, show an Partially Achieved improvement from 56 in 2015 to 59 in 2017. Indicator 2: 10% increase in The latest ISR: MU (December 2018) of project annual number of women-owned P120707 does not present data related to this businesses who “graduate” to Indicator but indicates that the number of formal formal status with registered SMEs (including women managed SMEs) businesses increased from 45,000 to 50,000 between Baseline: [to be generated by SME January 2013 and December 2018 (an 11% Survey sex-disaggregated “count” increase), without disaggregating data by using IPA data in early 2013; IFC gender. program with IPA will use IPA’s The ISR also reports that the data should be data to track] further verified during final beneficiary survey Target: 10% increase (2016) planned for January-May 2019. Not Verified Indicator 3: 20% increase in The latest ISR: MU (December 2018) of project Indicator added at PLR. number of firms filing tax P120707 does not monitor this Indicator. returns The CLR indicates that income tax return filings There is a disconnect Baseline: 8,400 (2014) decreased from 8,400 in 2014 to 8,088 in 2015 between the indicator and Target: 10,000 (2018) and 7,786 in 2016 – a 7% decrease from 2014 its baseline/target as to 2016. 2017 figures are still being compiled. currently defined. While the indicator specifies an Not Verified increase of 20% in tax filings, the baseline and target refers to an increase in the actual number and only reflects a 19% increase in tax filings. The Internal Revenue Commission (IRC) reports a doubling of the filing rate in 2018 (IRC press release). CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 22 CAS FY13-FY18: Focus Area III: Increasingly Prudent Management Actual Results IEG Comments of Revenues and Benefits 9. CPS Objective: Extractives Sector Indicator 1: Better governance Papua New Guinea became EITI member in Before the PLR the target and accountability in 2014. The national EITI reports were published was: step 2 oil/gas/mining revenues, as in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 (see list of measured by status in EITI publications). As reported in the CLR and in The TA Strengthening Civil process the 2017 EITI Annual Progress Report, Society Organizations Baseline: No formal commitment, International Compliance Assessment and (CSO) participation in EITI Step 0 (2012); Candidate status, Validation is planned for 2018 but has not been (FY16) supported the Step 2 (2016) achieved. establishment of a civil Target: PNG achieves compliance society coalition engaged with requirements of The EITI Partially Achieved in EITI implementation in Standard, Step 3 (2018) the country (final report). The Extractives Global Programmatic Support (EGPS) Multi-Donor Trust Fund supported activities to strengthen civil society participate in EITI (project P154204, FY16, see EGPS Annual Progress Report). Indicator 2: More equal The Social and Economic Empowerment for Indicator added at PLR. involvement of women in Women in Mining and Petroleum Areas Project Major community benefits from (P131462, FY13), supported this indicator as a Outcome oil/gas/mining, as measured by follow-up project to the initial Japanese Social Measures rights for women in project Development Fund that initiated the PNG agreements Women in Mining Program and provided Baseline: 1 (2008) capacity building to women in mining Target: 3 (2016) communities. As reported in the March 2016 ISR: HU, the project had experienced significant implementation challenges and was cancelled in May 2017. The Mining Sector Institutional Strengthening TA 2 (P102396, FY08) supported the empowerment of disadvantaged groups including women in extractive industries affected areas. IEG ICRR: MS reports that five community plans reflecting the priorities of women were completed. Both projects did not measure the number of women’s rights in project agreements. The CLR reports that Project agreements for Porgera, Ramu, Lihir, Hidden Valley, Simberi, Tolukuma, Sinivit, and Oil and Gas projects channel less than 50% of financial benefits, project financing, and women’s representation in project agreements. This information could not be validated. Not Achieved CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 23 CAS FY13-FY18: Focus Area III: Increasingly Prudent Management Actual Results IEG Comments of Revenues and Benefits 10. CPS Objective: Rural Service Delivery Indicator 1: Inclusive bottom-up The Rural Service Delivery and Local Before the PLR sub- planning in three provinces Governance Project – RSDLGP (P126157, indicator (a) was: “increase promotes increased local FY14) supported this indicator in Central and in % of households decision making, as measured Western Provinces and the Inclusive who participate in by: Development in Post-Conflict Bougainville allocation and use of $$ project – IDIB (P125101, FY11) and its through local additional financing (P151766, FY15) councils (baseline is 0; supported the indicator in the autonomous target is 70% of region of Bougainville. households in target districts, and 40% (a) Number of community (a) IEG ICRR:MS of the RSDLGP reports that of adult women)” development subprojects 73 approved ward-level community sub- implemented through projects were implemented, of which 58 have Sub-indicator (b) was community participation been completed as of December 2017 in added at PLR. However, Baseline: 0 (2016) Central and Western Provinces. The ICR: MS sub-indicator (b) does not Target: 100 (30 in Central and of RSDLGP also reports that 95% of align completely with the Western provinces, 70 in beneficiaries feel completed projects overall indicator of bottom- Bougainville) (2018) investments reflected their needs compared to up planning. the target of 70%. The CLR reports that 99 sub-projects were implemented in Bougainville: 68 completed and 31 sub-projects at 80% completion. This information could not be validated by IEG: the (b) Number of persons, including latest available ISR: MS (February 2019) of the women, benefitting from IDIB reports that 95 sub-projects were community development implemented and completed as of December subprojects 2018. Baseline: 0 (2016) Achieved Target: 130,000 (50,000 in Central and Western Provinces and (b) IEG ICRR:MS of the RSDLGP reports a 80,000 in Bougainville), of which total of 49,285 beneficiaries (45% women or 50% women (2018) 22,280 women) in Central and Western Provinces while the CLR reports a total of 61,885 beneficiaries. The latest available ISR: MS (February 2019) of the IDIB reports 51,642 beneficiaries (48% women) as of March 2018. Partially Achieved 11. CPS Objective: Macroeconomic management Indicator 1: More robust debt The WB-IMF TA on Debt Sustainability and The following indicators sustainability framework, as Medium-Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) were taken out at PLR measured by integration of (P160264, FY17) supported this indicator in stage: WBG-IMF debt sustainability addition to the preparation of a Debt - Expanded outreach to framework into the medium- Management Performance Assessment civil society and term debt strategy document (DEMPA, see April 2016 report). communities on SWF measured by forums Baseline (2016): WBG-IMF debt The CLR reports that PNG treasury has begun and public campaigns sustainability framework has not to employ elements (see MTDS presentation) (baseline = 4, target = 8) yet been incorporated into the of the WBG-IMF debt sustainability framework CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 24 CAS FY13-FY18: Focus Area III: Increasingly Prudent Management Actual Results IEG Comments of Revenues and Benefits government’s latest medium-term into the government’s medium-term debt - Increased capacity for debt strategy document strategy document (2018–22) approved in and use of updated survey (2013–17) November 2017 (see final document). data, poverty monitoring Target (2018): WBG-IMF debt The 2017 National Budget reports that the and analysis of sustainability framework has been 2016 IMF DSA were used to re-benchmark expenditures in transparent incorporated into the government’s targets for the 2018-22 MTDS (p.ii). The MTDS public debate measured by medium-term debt strategy (2018-22) only refers to the Bank-IMF DSA number of NEC (Cabinet) document (2018–22) and has no reference to the 2017 or 2018 DSA submissions using new updates. data analyses (baseline = 0, target = 3). Not Achieved Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 ($, millions) Approved Project Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project name IDA ID FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount CPS PLR Project Planned Under CPS/PLR PG - Energy Sector P101578 2013 2013 2020 7.3 7.3 7.3 Development Project P145120 RMRP II Additional Financing 2014 2014 55 126.5 126.5 P146003 Additional Financing for PPAP 2014 2014 2019 20 30 30 P159517 Rural Service Delivery Project 2017 2017 2022 23 23 PNG Tourism Sector P158807 2017 2017 2023 20 20 Development Water Supply and Sanitation P155087 2017 2017 2023 70 70 Development Dropped AF Communications 2014 20 AF Rural Service Delivery and Dropped 2014 25 Local Governance Pilot Urban Water Supply for Dropped 2014 5 Slum Communities Governance TA (PFM and Dropped 2014 8 Procurement Reform) Renewable Energy Dropped 2015 40 Investments Renewable Energy Dropped 2015 138 Investments or Guarantees Dropped AF Urban Youth 2015 15 TA for Sovereign Wealth Fund Dropped 2015 20 Management Dropped Repeater Transport Project 2016 30 CCA-DDR Grants for 2015/201 Dropped Infrastructure and Agriculture 5 6 Resilience (tied to IDA credits) Road Maintenance and Dropped 2017 27 Rehabilitation Project AF Power Transmission and Dropped 2018 250 Distribution Lines Project Total Planned 388.3 553.8 276.8 Approved Project Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project name IDA ID FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount CPS PLR Project Unplanned Under CPS/PLR P160947 Emergency TB Project 2017 2022 15 Total Unplanned 15 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 26 Approved Project Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project name IDA ID FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount CPS PLR On-going Projects During the CPS/PLR Period PG Mining Sector Inst P102396 2008 2015 17 Strengthening TA 2 PNG-Smallholder Agriculture P079140 2008 2014 27.5 Development PNG Productive Partnerships P110959 2010 2019 25 in Agr. PG-Flexible and Open P116521 2011 2016 5 Distance Education PG: Rural Communications P107782 2011 2019 15 Project PNG - SME Access to P120707 2011 2025 21.91 Finance Project PNG - Urban Youth P114042 2011 2019 15.8 Employment Project PNG Road Maintenance & P119471 2011 2021 43 Rehab Project II Total On-going 170.21 Source: The Independent State of Papua New Guinea CPS, WB Business Intelligence Table 2a.4, 2a.7, and 2b.1 as of 03/15/2019. *Ratings of Parent project CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 27 Annex Table 3: Advisory Services and Analytics Work for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 Project Fiscal Economic and Sector Work Report Type Global Practice ID Year Costs of Crime and Violence in Social, Urban, Rural and P129216 FY15 Other Poverty Study PNG Resilience Global Practice PNG - ROSC Accounting & Accounting and Auditing P121121 FY15 Governance Auditing Assessment (ROSC) PNG Economic Briefings FY13- Macroeconomics, Trade and P143381 FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note FY14 Investment Public Expenditure Review P129764 PNG Education PER FY15 Education (PER) PG Resource Dist. and Benefit P117730 FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Governance Sharing PNG AAA - Health Sector P128361 FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Health, Nutrition & Population Analytics Project Fiscal Technical Assistance Output Type Global Practice ID Year P092714 PNG HIES FY13 Technical Assistance Poverty and Equity FCMNB:GIIF Pacific Insurance Finance, Competitiveness and P128519 FY13 Technical Assistance Policy Work Innovation PNG #10148 Devt of Prudential Finance, Competitiveness and P129291 FY13 Technical Assistance Stds. Innovation P109084 PNG - HIV/AIDS Survey FY14 Technical Assistance Health, Nutrition & Population PNG #10115 Implement On Finance, Competitiveness and P129260 FY14 Technical Assistance Site Supervision Innovation P123962 Social Protection NLTA FY14 Technical Assistance Social Protection & Labor Water and Sanitation Policy P144823 FY14 Technical Assistance Water Dev in PNG Papua New Guinea HIES P131668 FY15 Technical Assistance Poverty and Equity Analysis Support P132320 Electrification Roll out Plan FY15 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives Transport & Digital P155014 PG: Connectivity Analysis FY16 Technical Assistance Development Impl. of Survey on Financial Finance, Competitiveness and P145131 FY16 Technical Assistance Competency Innovation P152008 PNG Social Protection NLTA 2 FY16 Technical Assistance Social Protection & Labor Macroeconomics, Trade and P158853 2nd DeMPA PNG FY16 Technical Assistance Investment PNG Health Systems P154902 FY17 Technical Assistance Health, Nutrition & Population Strengthening Course Finance, Competitiveness and P150943 PNG #B020 FSDS FY17 Technical Assistance Innovation CMC:PNG - Debt Management Macroeconomics, Trade and P160264 FY18 Technical Assistance Strategy and S Investment Source: WB Business Intelligence 03/15/2019. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 28 Annex Table 4: Papua New Guinea Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY13-FY18 ($, millions) Approval Closing Approved Project ID Project name TF ID FY FY Amount P105897 READ PNG TF 98729 2011 2016 19.20 Inclusive Development in Post-Conflict P125101 TF 98558 2011 2019 4.92 Bougainville Project P126996 PNG Disaster Risk Management Program TF 10109 2012 2015 1.70 PNG: Enhanced Legal Administration of P129215 Petroleum License Database Management TF 12014 2012 2015 0.45 System PNG: Building a More Disaster and Climate P129322 TF 11267 2012 2015 2.67 Resilient Transport Sector P122974 GM- PG Energy Sector Development Project TF 14583 2013 2018 0.90 PNG Social and Economic Empowerment for P131462 TF 13887 2013 2016 2.07 Women in Mining and Petroleum Areas Papua New Guinea Settlement Upgrading P128763 TF 13085 2013 2015 0.35 Programme Rural Service Delivery and Local Governance P126157 TF 12493 2013 2014 0.30 Preparation and Pilot Rural Service Delivery and Local Governance P126157 TF 15507 2014 2017 3.20 Preparation and Pilot P151766** Inclusive Development in Bougainville AF 2015 2.40 Rural Service Delivery and Local Governance P126157 TF 18447 2015 2018 1.80 Preparation and Pilot P149669 PNG Addressing FSV in EI areas TF A0714 2016 2018 2.63 PNG Urban Youth Employment Project Additional P154412*** TF A1282 2016 2019 10.80 Financing P146003*** ADDITIONAL FINANCING FOR PRODUCTIVE TF 17577 2016 2019 5.16 * PARTNERSHIPS IN AGRICULTURE P159517 Rural Service Delivery Project TF A5004 2017 2021 4.50 Total 63.05 Source: WB Client Connection as of 03/15/2019. * IEG validates RETF that are 5M and above. **P151766 is Additional Financing for parent project P125101. ***P154412 is Additional Financing for parent project P114042. ****P146003 is Additional Financing for parent project P110959. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 29 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 ($, millions) Exit Total IEG Risk to Project ID Project name IEG Outcome FY Evaluated DO PNG-Smallholder Agriculture 2014 P079140 23.3 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH Development PG Mining Sector Inst MODERATELY 2015 P102396 13.7 SIGNIFICANT Strengthening TA 2 SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2016 P105897* Reading Education Project 19.2 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY PG-Flexible and Open Distance MODERATELY 2016 P116521 4.6 HIGH Education UNSATISFACTORY Rural Service Del. and Local MODERATELY 2018 P126157* 5.0 # Governance SATISFACTORY Total 65.8 Source: WB Business Intelligence Key IEG Ratings as of 03/15/2019. *Trust Fund project. Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Papua New Guinea and Comparators, FY13-FY18 RDO % RDO % Total Total Evaluated Outcome Outcome Moderate or Moderate or Region Evaluated ($M) % Sat ($M) % Sat (No) Lower Lower (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Papua New Guinea 65.79 5.0 57.6 60.0 0.0 0.0 EAP 23,024.28 247.0 87.4 78.9 56.2 54.7 World Bank 124,067.03 1412.0 83.8 73.6 52.7 42.8 Source: WB Business Intelligence and IEG staff calculations as of 03/15/2019. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 30 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Papua New Guinea and Comparators, FY13-FY18 Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ave FY13-FY18 Papua New Guinea # Proj 8 8 7 6 10 10 8 # Proj At Risk 4 3 3 3 3 5 4 % Proj At Risk 50 38 43 50 30 50 43 Net Comm Amt 170.2 306.5 289.5 284.5 412.5 412.5 312.6 Comm At Risk 64.5 37.0 27.3 191.8 191.8 268.7 130.2 % Commit at Risk 38 12 9 67 46 65 40 EAP # Proj 227 237 246 245 265 269 248 # Proj At Risk 53 47 44 44 46 57 49 % Proj At Risk 23 20 18 18 17 21 20 Net Comm Amt 29,464.2 30,549.1 31,596.5 32,345.5 34,830.5 35,309.7 32,349.3 Comm At Risk 4,900.4 5,146.4 6,242.9 4,672.6 5,316.1 6,693.7 5,495.3 % Commit at Risk 17 17 20 14 15 19 17 World Bank # Proj 1,337 1,386 1,402 1,398 1,459 1,497 1,413 # Proj At Risk 339 329 339 336 344 348 339 % Proj At Risk 25 24 24 24 24 23 24 Net Comm Amt 169,430.6 183,153.9 191,907.8 207,350.0 212,502.9 229,965.6 199,051.8 Comm At Risk 39,638.0 39,748.6 44,430.7 42,715.1 50,837.9 48,148.8 44,253.2 % Commit at Risk 23 22 23 21 24 21 22 Source: WB Business Intelligence as of 03/15/2019. Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Overall Result Papua New Guinea Disbursement Ratio (%) 14 29 13 13 19 13 16 Inv Disb in FY 22.5 43.6 33.4 27.8 33.1 35.3 195.8 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 163.7 151.0 251.5 207.8 177.5 280.3 1,231.8 EAP Disbursement Ratio (%) 20 20 20 20 19 17 19 Inv Disb in FY 3,232.8 3,539.6 3,670.3 3,797.6 3,612.3 3,358.3 21,210.9 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 16,461.7 17,830.8 17,923.6 19,399.7 18,948.3 19,663.8 110,227.9 World Bank Disbursement Ratio (%) 21 21 22 19 20 20 21 Inv Disb in FY 20,511.4 20,759.3 21,854.1 21,153.6 22,128.0 22,594.3 129,000.7 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 99,591.6 99,856.9 100,345.8 108,603.7 108,150.7 110,623.4 627,172.0 Source: WB Business Intelligence as of 03/15/2019. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 31 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursements and Charges for Papua New Guinea, FY13-FY18 ($, millions) Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfers FY13 21.4 17.0 4.5 1.1 0.9 2.5 FY14 33.8 17.9 15.9 0.7 1.0 14.1 FY15 26.4 18.8 7.6 0.6 1.2 5.9 FY16 24.4 17.2 7.2 0.6 1.3 5.3 FY17 31.5 15.5 16.0 1.0 1.5 13.6 FY18 35.2 17.5 17.7 1.2 1.7 14.8 Report Total 172.8 103.9 68.9 5.2 7.6 56.1 Source: WB Client Connection as of 3/15/2019. Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance for Papua New Guinea ($, millions) Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Australia 474.25 418.31 416.45 338.53 381.46 Austria 0.57 0.24 0.76 0.34 0.43 Belgium .. .. 0 0 0 Canada 0.16 .. .. 0.33 0.04 Czech Republic .. .. .. .. 0.01 Finland 0.04 0.09 .. .. .. France 0.16 0.26 0 0.08 0.01 Germany 1.06 1.08 0.89 1.47 0.91 Ireland 0.02 .. .. .. .. Italy 0.16 .. .. .. 0.46 Japan -7.16 9.28 3.7 44.4 21.19 Korea 0.79 1.97 1.8 1.14 0.3 New Zealand 19.07 22.76 19.64 23.29 22.54 Norway 1.59 1.43 2.44 1.35 1.11 Poland 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.04 Spain .. .. 0.06 .. 0.03 Switzerland .. 0 .. .. .. United Kingdom 0.93 1.81 1.45 1.06 0.79 United States 7.25 6.98 8.04 11.88 10.81 DAC Countries, Total 498.91 464.24 455.28 423.89 440.13 Israel 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 .. Thailand 0.01 .. .. 0.01 0.04 Turkey 0.02 0.03 .. 0.12 0.02 United Arab Emirates 0.01 .. .. 0.01 0 Non-DAC Countries, Total 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.2 0.06 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 32 Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EU Institutions 7.08 14.4 21.87 15.67 13.28 Regional Development Banks, Total 69.12 37.76 50.76 21.55 15.24 Asian Development Bank, Total 69.12 37.76 50.76 21.55 15.24 Asian Development Bank [AsDB] 69.12 37.76 50.76 21.55 15.24 United Nations, Total 9.2 9.3 11.9 14.28 15.65 Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO] 0.05 .. .. .. .. International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] .. .. .. 0.18 0.24 IFAD 0.48 1.12 1.19 3.52 4.58 International Labour Organization [ILO] 0.31 0.24 0.19 0.12 0.23 UNAIDS 0.5 1.04 1.08 1.14 0.24 UNDP 2.02 1.58 1.45 1.21 1.22 UNFPA 2.38 1.94 1.89 1.41 1.58 UNHCR 0.17 .. .. .. .. UNICEF 1.82 1.69 2.66 1.5 2 UN Peacebuilding Fund [UNPBF] 0.09 0.19 1.55 3.41 3.51 World Health Organization [WHO] 1.38 1.51 1.9 1.79 2.07 World Bank Group, Total 23.03 30.69 23.87 31.08 18.29 World Bank, Total 23.03 30.69 23.87 31.08 18.29 International Development Association [IDA] 23.03 30.69 23.87 31.08 18.29 Other Multilateral, Total 50.06 25.49 27.68 24.91 29.37 Adaptation Fund .. 2.15 1.65 0.99 .. Climate Investment Funds [CIF] 0.24 0.29 0.17 .. .. Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 6.26 4.97 8.87 1.72 3.47 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 1.57 3.73 2.64 2.9 5.06 Global Fund 35.05 16 14.99 17.54 21.74 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] 6.93 -1.65 -0.64 1.76 -0.9 Multilateral Agencies, Total 158.49 117.64 136.08 107.49 91.83 Development Partners, Total 657.45 581.93 591.39 531.58 532.02 Source: OECD Stat database as of 03/15/2019. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 33 Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Papua New Guinea Papua World New EAP Series Name Bank Guinea 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average 2013-2017 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 3.8 15.4 5.3 1.6 2.5 5.7 4.3 2.8 GDP per capita growth (annual 1.6 13.0 3.1 -0.5 0.5 3.5 3.6 1.6 %) GNI per capita, PPP (current 3,210.0 3,750.0 3,890.0 3,940.0 4,030.0 3,764.0 16,211.0 15,738.3 international $) GNI per capita, Atlas method 2,630.0 3,010.0 2,780.0 2,480.0 2,340.0 2,648.0 9,890.6 10,617.1 (current $) (Millions) Inflation, consumer prices 5.0 5.2 6.0 6.7 5.4 5.7 1.8 2.0 (annual %) Composition of GDP (%) .. .. .. Agriculture, value added (% of 19 18 18 .. .. 18 5 4 GDP) Industry, value added (% of 16 23 24 .. .. 21 34 26 GDP) Services, etc., value added (% .. .. .. .. .. .. 59 64 of GDP) Gross fixed capital formation (% .. .. .. .. .. .. 32 23 of GDP) Gross domestic savings (% of .. .. .. .. .. .. 34 26 GDP) External Accounts .. .. .. Exports of goods and services .. .. .. .. .. .. 31 31 (% of GDP) Imports of goods and services .. .. .. .. .. .. 29 30 (% of GDP) Current account balance (% of -16 10 22 27 27 14 .. .. GDP) External debt stocks (% of GNI) 108 92 104 100 86 98 .. .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 6 5 6 18 14 10 .. .. Total reserves in months of 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.0 4.3 4.6 15.1 13.2 imports Fiscal Accounts* .. .. .. General government revenue (% 21 21 19 18 18 19 .. .. of GDP) General government total 28 27 24 23 21 25 .. .. expenditure (% of GDP) General government net -7 -6 -5 -5 -3 -5 .. .. lending/borrowing (% of GDP) General government gross debt 25 27 31 37 37 31 .. .. (% of GDP) Health .. .. .. Life expectancy at birth, total 65.1 65.2 65.4 65.5 .. 65.3 75.2 71.8 (years) CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 34 Papua World New EAP Series Name Bank Guinea 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average 2013-2017 Immunization, DPT (% of 79 73 73 72 62 72 93 85 children ages 12-23 months) People using at least basic 19 19 19 .. .. 19 76 67 sanitation services (% of pop) People using at least basic drinking water services (% of 37 37 37 .. .. 37 93 88 pop) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 46.9 45.7 44.4 43.1 41.8 44.4 14.2 31.3 live births) Education .. .. .. School enrollment, preprimary .. .. .. 44 .. 44 76 48 (% gross) School enrollment, primary (% .. .. .. 112 .. 112 103 104 gross) School enrollment, secondary .. .. .. 49 .. 49 88 76 (% gross) Population .. .. .. Population, total (Millions) 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.3 7.9 2,283.3 7,357.7 Population growth (annual %) 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 0.7 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 13 13 13 13 13 13 56 54 Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 .. .. .. .. .. .. 3.0 10.6 a day (2011 PPP) (% of pop) Poverty headcount ratio at .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. national poverty lines (% of pop) Rural poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of rural .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. pop) Urban poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. urban pop) GINI index (World Bank .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. estimate) Source: WB Development Data Platform as of 03/15/2019. *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2018. ** Data available only up to 2017. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 35 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Papua New Guinea ($, million) Investments Committed in FY13-FY18 Project Cmt Project Net Net Primary Sector Name Project Size Net Comm ID FY Status Loan Equity 37706 2017 Active Finance & Insurance 30.0 30.0 - 30.0 32833 2015 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining 58.0 - - - 35312 2015 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 32706 2014 Active Finance & Insurance 80.0 30.0 - 30.0 32223 2013 Closed Finance & Insurance 66.1 11.0 - 11.0 32750 2013 Closed Construction and Real Estate 22.0 - - - Sub-Total 274.4 89.4 18.3 89.4 Investments Committed pre-FY13 but active during FY13-18 Project CMT Project Net Net Primary Sector Name Project Size Net Comm ID FY Status Loan Equity 26186 2011 Active Finance & Insurance 7.5 19.3 - 19.3 29230 2011 Active Finance & Insurance 45.3 10.7 - 10.7 Industrial & Consumer 28111 2010 Active 7.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 Products 28844 2010 Active Finance & Insurance 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 28852 2010 Active Finance & Insurance 140.0 83.9 53.9 83.9 Collective Investment 27386 2009 Active 22.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Vehicles 23626 2005 Active Finance & Insurance 3.2 - - - Sub-Total 226.1 121.9 61.9 121.8 TOTAL 500.4 211.3 80.2 211.2 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of 1/31/19 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 36 Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Papua New Guinea, 2013-2018 ($, million) Advisory Services Approved in FY13-18 Impl Impl Primary Total Project Project Project Name Start End Business Funds, ID Status FY FY Line $ 601649 PNG G2P Payments 2018 2020 ACTIVE EFI 0.8 601810 PNG Airport PPP 2018 2018 TERMINATED CAS 2.0 601829 PNG Health PPP Project 2018 2019 TERMINATED CAS 0.3 602232 PNG and Fiji Capital Markets Development 2018 2021 ACTIVE EFI 2.1 602271 PNG Tourism Project 2018 2020 ACTIVE MAS 1.3 602330 PNG Consumer Protection Project 2018 2021 ACTIVE EFI 1.5 603066 BSP E&S Technical Assistance Advisory 2018 2020 ACTIVE FIG 0.1 600557 PNG PPP Screening 2017 2018 TERMINATED CAS 0.1 600299 Port Moresby PPP 2016 2018 TERMINATED CAS 2.0 592867 PNG SME tax simplification 2015 2020 ACTIVE EFI 2.2 600090 ANZ Mobile Banking (goMoney) Project 2015 2017 HOLD FIG 1.2 600131 Pacific Renewable Energy Generation Project 2015 2020 ACTIVE INR 3.4 AES Support to Implement a Environmental and 600363 2015 2015 TERMINATED ESG 0.0 Social Management System 599352 Pacific Women in Business Program 2014 2020 ACTIVE EPS 5.1 599409 Agribusiness PNG 2014 2019 ACTIVE MAS 3.2 599825 Regional Westpac Mobile Banking Project 2014 2018 CLOSED FIG 1.5 578167 PMI Pipeline Assessment 2013 2013 TERMINATED A2F 2.3 585727 Pacific Payment Systems 2013 2022 ACTIVE EFI 7.4 594427 Lighting PNG Extension 2013 2019 ACTIVE INR 3.5 Sub-Total 40.1 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY13 but active during FY13-18 Impl Impl Primary Total Project Project Project Name Start End Business Funds, ID Status FY FY Line $ 591248 Papua New Guinea Commercial Mediation 2012 2014 CLOSED IC 0.6 BSP Rural Electronic Banking and Mobile Money 582448 2011 2015 CLOSED FIG 1.5 Project Papua New Guinea Regulatory Simplification and 567987 2009 2016 CLOSED TAC 3.0 Investment Policy and Promotion Project Sub-Total 5.1 TOTAL 45.2 Source: IFC AS Portal Data as of 2/28/19 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 37 Annex Table 14: List of Net Commitment Activity in Papua New Guinea, 2013-2018 ($, million) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Financial Markets (0.0) 30.0 (0.0) (0.2) 30.0 (0.0) 59.8 Agribusiness & Forestry (2.9) - - - - - (2.9) Other MAS Sectors 65.1 - (37.1) (15.0) - (2.0) 11.0 Manufacturing (0.0) (0.1) - - - - (0.1) Other Infra Sectors 4.0 - (4.0) - - - - Oil, Gas & Mining - - 17.5 - - - 17.5 Total IFC Long Term Investment Commitment 66.1 29.9 (23.6) (15.1) 30.0 (2.0) 85.3 Short-term Finance/Trade Finance - Average 2.1 0.2 - - 0.1 - 2.4 Outstanding Balance Source: IFC MIS as of 3/11/19 Note: IFC began reporting average outstanding short-term commitments (not total commitments) in FY15 and no longer aggregates short-term commitments with long-term commitments. IEG uses net commitment number for IFC's long-term investment. For trade finance guarantees under GTFP, average commitment numbers have been used. Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Projects Active in Papua New Guinea, 2013-2018 Max Project ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Gross Status Issuance No Active projects during the review period Total - Source: MIGA 3/11/19 w/ Project Briefs