Newsletter Issue # 3 ClimateAction January 2014 84235 bangladesh the emerging ‘hot spot’ where climate threats and action meet The world is on track to warm by 4°C (degrees Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) Celsius) this century unless nations take urgent, doing about them? concerted action. Disastrous impacts will spare few The report is not the first to identify Bangladesh as a countries, and fewer still than Bangladesh. These hot spot of climate risk. The 2011 Global Adaptation are some of the findings of Turn Down the Heat: Index ranks Bangladesh as the 32nd most vulnerable Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the country to climate change, and the 38th least ready Case for Resilience, a June 2013 World Bank report for it.2 The 2013 Climate Change Vulnerability Index prepared by the Potsdam Institute and reviewed by ranks Bangladesh as the economy most at risk 1 25 scientists. So what are the risks? And what is the of climate impacts over the next 30 years, and its capital Dhaka as one of the top five cities.3 Keraniganj, Bangladesh Photographer: David Greedy / Getty Images Read more on page 2 Putting local Sheltering communities at the levels, more intense cyclones, more days of extreme from Mahasen: forefront of climate rainfall, greater flooding, longer dry spells, greater Preparing for the resilience groundwater stress, and lower crop yields. These future add to hazards that Bangladeshis already face, The latest science points to a string of risks for local including regular inundations and contamination “It was a nightmare when the cyclone hit our communities in Bangladesh from unmitigated of freshwater sources from salinity. village. I could not imagine what would happen climate change, as this edition’s feature article “Recently the weather has become totally to us and whether we could survive this disaster,” reports following the June 2013 World Bank report, unpredictable, making our lives unbearable. recalls Amena Begum, a schoolteacher from Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Untimely and excessive rain, drought and floods Galachipa, Upazila of Patuakhali District, on the Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. have become a common phenomenon hampering Bay of Bengal coast. “We took refuge in the nearest In recognition of the importance of community our regular life,” says Nur Banu, a resident of cyclone shelter. The shelter facilities were beyond response to climate change, the Bangladesh Climate Chlimari Upazila of Kurigram District in northern my imagination. There was a separate toilet facility Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) sets aside 10 percent Bangladesh, one of the project’s target areas. “As a for women. To my utmost surprise, the shelter of its funding for action with civil society. One result poor family, we have to face terrible consequences also had rooms for pregnant women, tube wells is the Community Climate Change Project (CCCP), due to these changes as we depend a lot on providing safe drinking water, and solar lights.” one of BCCRF’s ongoing projects. nature. Our crops either are washed away due to Cyclone Mahasen, in May 2013, affected over 1.2 Particular risks associated with a potential 2°C untimely floods or dry up due to drought, pushing million people in eight coastal districts of Bangladesh, to 4°C warming this century include higher sea us further into poverty.” including 17 fatalities and 49,000 destroyed homes.1 Read more on page 4 Read more on page 4 1 Feature Story bangladesh the emerging ‘hot spot’ where climate threats and Chittagong, Bangladesh | Photographer: Spencer Platt / Getty Images action meet surface temperature is on course to become 2°C could lead to a 30-40 percent loss in agricultural higher than in preindustrial times by the 2040s and production in the south central regions of Patuakhali Continued from page 1 4°C higher by the 2080s. and Khulna.6 Inundation from a 1 meter rise could These global warming numbers take on a displace 13 million Bangladeshis.7 The Government of Bangladesh has long new significance once one examines their local The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, which defines acknowledged the need to act, and it has plans and implications for Bangladesh. The report shows Bangladesh’s geography, is ranked a “delta in measures in place to reduce climate risk and cope that risks from higher temperatures, sea-level rise, peril.” Sediment aggradation no longer exceeds with unavoidable impacts. However, more resources and changed patterns of river flows and rainfall relative sea-level rise. In this century, rates of sea- are needed, says Arastoo Khan, additional secretary, combine to affect agriculture, human health, level rise may overwhelm the delta due to lower Ministry of Finance. The Bangladesh Climate settlements, and infrastructure to the detriment sediment inflow of 30 percent. In this context, BCCRF Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009 (BCCSAP) of the economy and especially the poor. Even is supporting is a feasibility study on a government includes a 10-year program to build local capacity without climate change, the future damages from proposal for dam and silt works in the delta to and resilience to meet climate change challenges in extreme weather are likely to increase because, increase cultivatable land area. 4 coming decades. In putting the BCCSAP into practice, as incomes rise, the projected value of assets in Although Turn Down the Heat focuses on the government established the Bangladesh Climate high-risk areas will increase. This adds to the case outcomes in this century, it also suggests that sea Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) in May 2010. Current for resilience to avoid the risk that climate change level could actually rise to 5 or more meters after pledges total US$188 million from the European will ‘undo’ recent and future gains in poverty 2100, citing research that the West Antarctic ice sheet Union and the governments of Australia, Denmark, reduction and economic development. is responding rapidly to global warming and that Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the “Sea-level rise, already under way in the Bay the Greenland ice sheet could lose mass irreversibly United States. of Bengal, emerges as a key risk for Bangladesh. at 1.6°C warming. In this case, the report warns, a The Turn Down the Heat report reinforces Turn Down the Heat finds that the sea level near multimeter sea-level rise would compound risks for the value of BCCRF projects and sheds new Dhaka has more than a 66 percent chance of rising Bangladesh and could pose an existential risk to the light on the risks that Bangladesh and other 30 centimeters by 2040 and exceeding 1 meter by country in coming centuries.8 countries worldwide face if the world does not the 2100.” (Figure 1). The report cites evidence that if Greater tropical storm intensity and impact also limit greenhouse gas emissions. Through original seas rise by 50 centimeters, a 1-in-100-year coastal resalt from the higher, and warmer seas. In 2007, modeling and a literature review, it builds on a flood in 2070 would affect more than 11 million Cyclone Sidr inundated the land of 3.45 million previous report finding that the earth’s average people in Dhaka alone.5 A rise of 62 centimeters Bangladeshis with damages and losses equal to 2.6 1. World Bank. 2013. Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the 6. Yu, W. H., M. Alam, A. Hassan, A. S. Khan, A. C. Ruane, C. Rosenzweig, D. C. Major, Case for Resilience. Washington, DC: World Bank. and J. Thurlow. 2010. Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh. Washington, 2. Global Adaptation Institute. 2011. “Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN).” DC: World Bank.Yu, W. H., M. Alam, A. Hassan, A. S. Khan, A. C. Ruane, C. Rosenzweig, D. Project of the Global Adaptation Institute, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN. C. Major, and J. Thurlow. 2010. Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh. 3. Maplecroft. 2013. “Climate Change Vulnerability Index.” In Climate Change and Washington, DC: World Bank. Environmental Risk Atlas, 5th ed., edited by James Allan, Olivia Dobson, and Richard 7. Huq, S., S. I. Ali, and A. A. Rahman. 1995. “Sea-Level Rise and Bangladesh: A Preliminary Hewston. Bath, U.K.: Maplecroft. Analysis.” Journal of Coastal Research Special Issue 14: 44–53. 4. Government of Bangladesh. 2009. Bangladesh Climate Strategy and Action Plan 2009. 8.“Severe stunting” indicates a height more than three standard deviations below mean Dhaka: Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of height-for-age of the reference population (Lloyd, S.J., R. S. Kovats, and Z. Chalabi. 2011. Bangladesh. http://www.sdnbd.org/moef.pdf. “Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Undernutrition: Development of a Model to Quantify the 5. Hanson, Susan, Robert Nicholls, N. Ranger, S. Hallegatte, J. Corfee-Morlot, C. Herweijer, Impact of Climate Scenarios on Child Undernutrition.” Environmental Health Perspectives and J. Chateau. 2011. “A Global Ranking of Port Cities with High Exposure to Climate 119 (12): 1817–23. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1003311.) Extremes.” Climatic Change 104 (1): 89–111. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9977-4. 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The report In greater Dhaka, BCCRF is helping to assess flood that the benefits of early action to reduce greenhouse suggests that a cyclone like Sidr (once-in-10-years) risk and response options through analysis and gas emissions far outweigh the costs.” Bangladesh would inundate 88 percent more land in 2050 than it advice, as well as to reduce flood risk through is a small emitter relative to other countries, yet its would today, and expose 9.7 million people to severe engineering. Through local NGOs, BCCRF also helps efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will also floods more than 3 meters deep. To face the increasing 28 communities to prepare for flood, drought, and bring a range of other local benefits. threat of such disasters, BCCRF is supporting analysis saltwater intrusion through the Community Climate Under the Solar Irrigation Program, which of ways to help finance disaster risk. Management Change Project (see the sidebar “Putting local BCCRF supports, solar-powered water pumps BCCRF is also supporting construction of 61 communities at the forefront of climate resilience”). will help farmers replace diesel to save 6,000 multipurpose cyclone shelters and 11.5 kilometers Food shortages, already persistent in metric tons of greenhouse gases each year, and of emergency roads (see the sidebar, “Sheltering from Bangladesh, will worsen with climate change. avoid toxic air pollution. BCCRF is also supporting Mahasen: Preparing for the future”). Warming if 4°C would severely threaten crops, work through the World Bank’s Climate Resilient Floods, drought, and heat are also especially rice grown during annual monsoons. Participatory Afforestation and Reforestation likely to worsen with higher sea levels, more Yields would decrease despite any potentially Project with communities in nine districts to intense cyclones, and changed rainfall patterns. positive effects of warming. BCCRF is preparing protect and grow forests, which will not only take Bangladesh currently experiences regular flooding farmers for climate change with better seed carbon out of the atmosphere but also provide a on up to two-thirds of its land area every three to choices and warning systems. It will also help build natural buffer to storms. five years, and drought every five years. Droughts food stores for emergencies. Finally, the Turn Down the Heat reports identifies are especially frequent in rainfed agricultural areas “Health issues also worsen with climate areas for future work, such as better understanding such as in Bangladesh’s northwest. Groundwater change. Currently 43 percent of Bangladeshi children climate impacts at the local level. To this end, BCCRF in Bangladesh is also stressed, especially in coastal have low height-for-age due to undernutrition— will help develop projections of climate change areas where salinity affects 20 million people. one of the highest rates in the world. If not for in Bangladesh to 2100 under different scenarios, at In a 2°C world, flooding will affect 29 percent climate change, the rate would likely decrease, but a resolution of 50 kilometers. Other areas for future more land in Bangladesh by 2040, with areas of warming of not even 2°C by 2050 could increase research could include the effects on ecosystem services. high poverty at the highest risk. By 2070, coastal by 62 percent the relative incidence of South Asian With the known impacts of a warmer world floods would affect coastal city homes of 1.5 children with severe undernutrition. Malaria risk is already rapidly approaching, we don’t have to million people. “Under the 4°C scenario, northern also projects to increase by 5 percent and diarrheal wait for more analysis to know the time to act is Bangladesh shifts to a new climatic regime with disease risk by 1.4 percent. BCCRF is conducting a now. Through the BCCRF projects under way, the high temperatures above any levels seen in the study to assess and prepare for emerging health Government of Bangladesh and its partners are past 100 years and monthly deviations five to six risks such as these.” helping Bangladesh become a hot spot of positive times beyond the standard, that the Turn Down the There is a lot of truth in the saying that “an ounce action, to gain the benefits of climate resilience for Heat report finds.” Dry spells would lengthen and of prevention is worth a pound of cure”. “The World current and future generations. groundwater stress increase. Bank’s World Development Report 2014 confirms Sea Level (cm) 150 Figure 1: Projected sea-level rise near Dhaka, Bangladesh, under two global warming scenarios, 2000–2100 125 Note: The blue shading shows the projected sea-level rise if global warming increases by 2°C during this century. The red shading shows the rise if warming increases by 4°C. The baseline is the 1986–2005 mean sea 100 level, excluding observed sea-level rises of several centimeters earlier in the 20th century. The shaded area 75 indicates a 66 percent uncertainty range (the difference between the percentage rise projected under the 2°C scenario and the 4°C scenario). The data also exclude the factor of local change from land subsidence by 50 natural or human causes. 25 Source: World Bank. 2013. Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional 0 Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. Washington, DC: World Bank. 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 interviews Arastoo Khan Hasan Mahmud Mohammad Nasiruddin Additional Secretary Honorable Former Minister Joint Secretary of Economic Relations Ministry of Environment Development Division of Ministry and Forests Ministry of Environment of Finance and Forests 3 (subdistricts) that are highly vulnerable. They include Putting local salinity-affected coastal areas, flood-affected chars communities at (silt islands in rivers), and river basins as well as the forefront of arid or drought-affected areas. The areas have been climate resilience selected based on poverty level and vulnerability to Continued from page 1 the effects of climate change. “About 25 years ago we could grow crops In December 2012, 496 NGOs submitted concept Women in rural village, Southern Bangladesh in the Satkhira area in abundance. But due to notes for activities that build community resilience to Video Still: Stephan Bachenheimer, The World Bank increased saline intrusion now, we have very limited climate change impacts. Qualified NGOs were invited • Cultivate sweet pumpkin and other saline-tolerant cultivatable land, and every year it is substantially to submit a full proposal for final selection. After vegetables in sandbar areas, flood-tolerant rice reducing,” says Amina Begum, a resident of Joforpur reviewing the proposals, PKSF has to date selected varieties, and drought-resilient fodder village in Kaliganz Upazila of Satkhira District, another 11 NGOs to implement activities, with more to follow. coastal target area. “We also face severe scarcity of The activities chosen to date include the following These activities will bring a range of benefits in drinking water. Even our household plinth is affected components: addition to climate resilience, including low-carbon by high tide every day.” • Raise homestead plinths energy from solar irrigation systems, better health To help address such challenges, CCCP • Repair roads and plant trees to strengthen road through cleaner drinking water, and greater food provides grants of US$20,000 to US$1 million to embankments security from agricultural yields. local nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The • Install environment-friendly cooking stoves and “Under the CCCP, concerned communities will Government of Bangladesh designated the nonprofit latrines, solar irrigation systems, and semideep implement activities at the grassroot level in response Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) to tubewells with platforms for safe drinking water to their own and localized needs”, says PKSF administer the project. • Harvest rainwater at the household level Chairman Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad. “This is the CCCP activities align with the thematic pillars • Reexcavate traditional ponds in water-scarce villages level where climate change impacts hit home, and of the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and • Establish “banks” to store grain for lean periods where building resilience can help reduce poverty.” Action Plan 2009. Initial work focuses on upazilas See Map > Sheltering from Mahasen: Plan 2009. During Mahasen, an estimated 40,219 their patterns are hard to predict. Science gives some Preparing for the people and 4,307 livestock used ECRRP’s new and clues as reported in the World Bank’s 2013 report, future upgraded shelters. Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional ECRRP started in 2007 after Cyclone Sidr, Impacts, and the Case for Resilience as well as in Continued from page 1 a supercyclonic storm with winds above 220 the September 2013 Working Group I report of the “The loss of lives was much less than what it could have kilometers (137 miles) per hour, which led to 3,447 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.5 been because the number of usable cyclone shelters reported deaths (some estimate a total closer to The Government of Bangladesh is on track to increased, according to the Government of Bangladesh.” 10,000) and massive economic damage. build 230 new multipurpose cyclone shelters by Sri Ziten Nag’s shelter was one of these, funded Cyclones hit Bangladesh almost every year, June 2014, through ECCRP. BCCRF is funding 61 of under the Multipurpose Cyclone Shelter Construction with a severe cyclone on average every three years.2 these shelters as well as 11.5 kilometers of connecting Project. The Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Destructive cyclones hitting Bangladesh became roads in five coastal districts. The communities near Fund (BCCRF) supports this project as a component common over the 20th century,3 though how much the cyclone shelters have been closely involved 4 of the government’s Emergency Cyclone Recovery this was due to global warming is uncertain. during the planning phase and provided inputs on and Restoration Project (ECRRP), in line with the As for the future, while cyclone names are the design and how the shelters will be operated Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action already decided (Madi is next in line for South Asia), during and after cyclones. 1. IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies). 2013. 4. Dasgupta, S., M. Huq, Z. H. Khan, M. M. Z. Ahmed, N. Mukherjee, M. “Bangladesh: Tropical Cyclone Mahasen.” Operation Update MDRBD013, Disaster F. Khan, and K. Pandey. 2010. “Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones Emergency Relief Fund, IFRC, Geneva. in a Changing Climate: Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost.” Policy 2. Government of Bangladesh. 2009. Bangladesh Climate Strategy and Action Plan 2009. Research Working Paper 5280, World Bank, Washington, DC. Dhaka: Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of 5. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013. Bangladesh. http://www.sdnbd.org/moef.pdf. “Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the 3. Hossain, M. Z., M. T. Islam, T. Sakai, and M. Ishida. 2008. “Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Rural Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” In Climate Change 2013: Infrastructures in Bangladesh.” Agricultural Engineering International: the CIGR Ejournal 10 (2). The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat. BCCRF benefits from the financial support of the governments of Australia, Government of the Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union, and the technical support of the World Bank. People’s Republic of Bangladesh www.bccrf-bd.org 4