The World Bank Report No: ISR16193 Implementation Status & Results Mexico MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 4 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 15-Nov-2014 (P126487) Country: Mexico Approval FY: 2012 Product Line: IBRD/IDA Region: LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Key Dates Board Approval Date 17-May-2012 Original Closing Date 31-Dec-2017 Planned Mid Term Review Date 31-Jul-2015 Last Archived ISR Date 24-Feb-2014 Effectiveness Date 20-Dec-2012 Revised Closing Date 31-Dec-2017 Actual Mid Term Review Date 16-Feb-2015 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to strengthen the human resource, institutional, and infrastructural capacity of the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional to meet the increasing demand for timely and accurate weather and climate information for the purposesof water resources management and disaster risk management in the face of climate change and climate variability. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Strengthening Institutional Capacity and Client Communications 19.60 Development of Climate Regional Capacity 28.20 Modernizing Observation Infrastructure 41.00 Improving Meteorological Forecasts 16.20 Public Disclosure Copy Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Substantial Implementation Status Overview The project has completed two years of actual implementation (effectiveness was declared in December 21, 2012). Despite the efforts so far, project disbursements still remain very low (1,2% of the total loan). During this period the SMN faced difficulties in filling in key positions in the Project Coordination Office (PCO). As a result, there has been a lack of follow- Page 1 of 5 The World Bank Report No: ISR16193 up on project activities and a weak coordination in the procurement processes of the project. Additionally, the project also faces delays in the implementation of key technical cooperation programs like the one signed with WMO. Taking into account these delays and the current disbursement pace, the project faces a backlog of approximately 70 Million of US dollars. The Mission estimated that the project would require two additional years to implement activities as were originally planned. Unless a strong change is made to the capacity and tools of the SMN for project implementation as soon as possible, the project may face difficulties in achieving its objectives within the timeframe available. Public Disclosure Copy Locations Country First Administrative Division Location Planned Actual Mexico Estado de Veracruz-Llave Veracruz ✔ Mexico Chiapas Tuxtla Gutierrez ✔ Mexico Quintana Roo Estado de Quintana Roo ✔ Mexico The Federal District Mexico City ✔ Mexico Sonora Hermosillo ✔ Results Project Development Objective Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target SMN is operating an evaluation system using Number Value 0.00 indicators to measure quality of service Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 Comments The indicator of progress to The National Centre for Evaluation system measures be designed is the Atmospheric Research efficiently the quality of SMN establishment of an (NCAR) proposal for services during the evaluation system using implementing a forecast Modernization Process different indicators to verification system has not measure to measure the been implemented yet quality of SN services during teh Modernization prepcess Accuracy of severe weather warnings Percentage Value Public Disclosure Copy increases to 80%. Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 Comments Establishment of baseline of baseline to be established Accuracy of severe weather performance based on recent warnings reaches 80% historical records to be completed after efectiveness The percentage of climatology data generated Percentage Value 45.00 45.00 95.00 by SMN that enters into the WMO international Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 system used in GCM/GFM. Comments 40% Page 2 of 5 The World Bank Report No: ISR16193 Level of strategic clients’ satisfaction with Number Value 20.00 20.00 80.00 SMN’s services increases. Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 Comments scale of clients satisfaction to baseline to be established Public Disclosure Copy be established (from 1-100) Availability of the telemetric weather Percentage Value 50.00 50.00 85.00 observations system Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 Comments estimate to be confirmed 60% Intermediate Results Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target SMN has prepared and adopted results of an Number Value Institutional Restructuring Plan including the Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 roadmap for piloting the creation of Regional Comments No Regional Hydro- Regional Hydro- five Regional Hydro- Hydrometeorological Forecast Centers in five priority regions. meteorological Centers in meteorological Center in meteorological Centers place Tuxtla Gutierrez is operational established SMN awards contract for procurement and Number Value 0.00 0.00 198.00 oversees installation of new automatic weather Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 stations (AWSs). Comments any of the 198 AWS procured Bidding doc for procuring 32 AWS cleared by the Bank published in the UNDB SMN develops and begins providing climate Percentage Value 0.00 0.00 85.00 products to specialized users (e.g., water Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 users, farmers, municipalities). Comments SMN has increased the % achievement of project number of information target products for agriculture, insurance and DRM sectors SMN prepares and implements Integrated Number Value 0.00 0.00 4.00 Information and Early Warning System in 4 Date 31-May-2012 10-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2017 Pilot basins (Yaqui, Veracruzanos Rivers, Public Disclosure Copy Comments Consultancies for the detailed Four pilots are operational Valley of Mexico Coast of Chiapas design and work plan for implementing Integrated Information and Early Warning System in 2 Pilot basins (Valley of Mexico and Coast of Chiapas). Data on Financial Performance (as of 27-Aug-2014) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Page 3 of 5 The World Bank Report No: ISR16193 Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P126487 IBRD-81650 Effective 17-May-2012 03-Aug-2012 20-Dec-2012 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 Disbursements (in Millions) Public Disclosure Copy Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P126487 IBRD-81650 Effective USD 105.26 105.26 0.00 1.58 103.68 2.00 Disbursement Graph Key Decisions Regarding Implementation During this period the SMN faced difficulties in filling in key positions in the Project Coordination Office (PCO). As a result, there has been a lack of follow-up on project activities and a weak coordination. Two key procurement processes, ready to be completed, were unexpectedly cancelled by SMN last August. The project also faces delays in the implementation of key technical cooperation programs like the one signed with WMO. Taking into account the 2 years implementation delay, and a current disbursement backlog of approximately 70 Public Disclosure Copy Million of US dollars, the project may have difficulties in achieving its objectives within the timeframe available. The Action Plan agreed during the last mission recommends a drastic improvement in the implementation capacity and the following key actions: (i) Allow sufficient budget for 2015 for the implementation of the project activities (digito 2), the last mission estimated that the budgets requirements are around 34 million USD for 2015. (ii) Make sure that the project coordination office is in place with the number of staff and qualifications satisfactory to the Bank; (iii) Streamline planning and internal approval of Projects activities in SMN and CONAGUA to maximize efficiency and transparency. (iv) Prepare a feasible and well design action and procurement plan for 2015 and keep planning system updated to allow a coherent follow up on the project activities; (v) Follow rigorously rules and procurement processes as stated in the Implementation Manual to prevent administrative delays and mistakes that can cause a repetition of observed failure and cancellation of bidding processes. If these actions are not in place by the upcoming Mid Term Review mission (February 2015) it would be difficult to overcome the overall delay within the current project closing date Page 4 of 5 The World Bank Report No: ISR16193 (Dec 31 2017). In such a case, the team would recommend a project restructuring to reduce the intensity of the activities, as it were originally planned, with a partial cancellation of loan’s proceeds. Restructuring History Public Disclosure Copy There has been no restructuring to date. Related Projects There are no related projects. Public Disclosure Copy Page 5 of 5